A multinational randomised study comparing didactic lectures with case scenario in a severe sepsis medical simulation course.

PubMed

Li, Chih-Huang; Kuan, Win-Sen; Mahadevan, Malcolm; Daniel-Underwood, Lynda; Chiu, Te-Fa; Nguyen, H Bryant

2012-07-01

Medical simulation has been used to teach critical illness in a variety of settings. This study examined the effect of didactic lectures compared with simulated case scenario in a medical simulation course on the early management of severe sepsis. A prospective multicentre randomised study was performed enrolling resident physicians in emergency medicine from four hospitals in Asia. Participants were randomly assigned to a course that included didactic lectures followed by a skills workshop and simulated case scenario (lecture-first) or to a course that included a skills workshop and simulated case scenario followed by didactic lectures (simulation-first). A pre-test was given to the participants at the beginning of the course, post-test 1 was given after the didactic lectures or simulated case scenario depending on the study group assignment, then a final post-test 2 was given at the end of the course. Performance on the simulated case scenario was evaluated with a performance task checklist. 98 participants were enrolled in the study. Post-test 2 scores were significantly higher than pre-test scores in all participants (80.8 ± 12.0% vs 65.4 ± 12.2%, p<0.01). There was no difference in pre-test scores between the two study groups. The lecture-first group had significantly higher post-test 1 scores than the simulation-first group (78.8 ± 10.6% vs 71.6 ± 12.6%, p<0.01). There was no difference in post-test 2 scores between the two groups. The simulated case scenario task performance completion was 90.8% (95% CI 86.6% to 95.0%) in the lecture-first group compared with 83.8% (95% CI 79.5% to 88.1%) in the simulation-first group (p=0.02). A medical simulation course can improve resident physician knowledge in the early management of severe sepsis. Such a course should include a comprehensive curriculum that includes didactic lectures followed by simulation experience.

Evaluating uncertainty in environmental life-cycle assessment. A case study comparing two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling.

PubMed

Huijbregts, Mark A J; Gilijamse, Wim; Ragas, Ad M J; Reijnders, Lucas

2003-06-01

The evaluation of uncertainty is relatively new in environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA). It provides useful information to assess the reliability of LCA-based decisions and to guide future research toward reducing uncertainty. Most uncertainty studies in LCA quantify only one type of uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty due to input data (parameter uncertainty). However, LCA outcomes can also be uncertain due to normative choices (scenario uncertainty) and the mathematical models involved (model uncertainty). The present paper outlines a new methodology that quantifies parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously in environmental life-cycle assessment. The procedure is illustrated in a case study that compares two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling. Parameter uncertainty was quantified by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Scenario and model uncertainty were quantified by resampling different decision scenarios and model formulations, respectively. Although scenario and model uncertainty were not quantified comprehensively, the results indicate that both types of uncertainty influence the case study outcomes. This stresses the importance of quantifying parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously. The two insulation options studied were found to have significantly different impact scores for global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and eutrophication. The thickest insulation option has the lowest impact on global warming and eutrophication, and the highest impact on stratospheric ozone depletion.

The Adequacy of Different Robust Statistical Tests in Comparing Two Independent Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pero-Cebollero, Maribel; Guardia-Olmos, Joan

2013-01-01

In the current study, we evaluated various robust statistical methods for comparing two independent groups. Two scenarios for simulation were generated: one of equality and another of population mean differences. In each of the scenarios, 33 experimental conditions were used as a function of sample size, standard deviation and asymmetry. For each…

What Are the Perceived Effects of Telecollaboration Compared to Other Communication-Scenarios with Peers?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nissen, Elke

2016-01-01

What are the perceived effects of Telecollaboration (TC), compared to other types of communication-scenarios with peers (i.e. local peers in small groups and Erasmus students abroad)? This is the question this exploratory study tackles within a blended language learning course. The analysis of students' perceptions paints a rather contrastive…

Indirect health costs in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kawalec, Paweł; Malinowski, Krzysztof Piotr

2015-04-01

The aim of this systematic review was to collect all current data on indirect costs related to inflammatory bowel disease as well as assessing homogeneity and comparability, and conducting a meta-analysis. Costs were collected using databases from Medline, Embase and Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, then average annual cost per patient was calculated and expressed in 2013-rate USD using the consumer price index and purchasing power parity (scenario 1) and then adjusted to specific gross domestic product (scenario 2) to make them comparable. The studies were then included in quantitative synthesis using the meta-analysis and bootstrap methods. This systematic review was carried out and reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. From 18 publications, overall annual indirect costs per patient as a result of the quantitative synthesis among all studies eligible for meta-analysis ranged from US$2425.01-US$9622.15 depending on the scenario and model used for analysis. The cost of presenteeism was assessed in only two studies. Considering heterogeneity among all identified studies random-effect model presented the most accurate results of meta-analysis equal to US$7189.27 and US$9622.15 per patient per year for scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. This systematic review revealed the existence of a relatively small number of studies that reported on the great economic burden of the disease upon society. A great variety of methodologies and cost components resulted in a very large discrepancy in indirect costs and made meta-analysis difficult to perform, so two scenarios were considered and meta-analysis conducted in subgroups to make data more comparable.

Science-based HRA: experimental comparison of operator performance to IDAC (Information-Decision-Action Crew) simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shirley, Rachel; Smidts, Carol; Boring, Ronald

Information-Decision-Action Crew (IDAC) operator model simulations of a Steam Generator Tube Rupture are compared to student operator performance in studies conducted in the Ohio State University’s Nuclear Power Plant Simulator Facility. This study is presented as a prototype for conducting simulator studies to validate key aspects of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods. Seven student operator crews are compared to simulation results for crews designed to demonstrate three different decision-making strategies. The IDAC model used in the simulations is modified slightly to capture novice behavior rather that expert operators. Operator actions and scenario pacing are compared. A preliminary review of availablemore » performance shaping factors (PSFs) is presented. After the scenario in the NPP Simulator Facility, student operators review a video of the scenario and evaluate six PSFs at pre-determined points in the scenario. This provides a dynamic record of the PSFs experienced by the OSU student operators. In this preliminary analysis, Time Constraint Load (TCL) calculated in the IDAC simulations is compared to TCL reported by student operators. We identify potential modifications to the IDAC model to develop an “IDAC Student Operator Model.” This analysis provides insights into how similar experiments could be conducted using expert operators to improve the fidelity of IDAC simulations.« less

Life cycle assessment of a packaging waste recycling system in Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferreira, S.; Cabral, M.; Cruz, N.F. da, E-mail: nunocruz@tecnico.ulisboa.pt

Highlights: • We modeled a real packaging waste recycling system. • The analysis was performed using the life cycle assessment methodology. • The 2010 situation was compared with scenarios where the materials were not recycled. • The “Baseline” scenario seems to be more beneficial to the environment. - Abstract: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been used to assess the environmental impacts associated with an activity or product life cycle. It has also been applied to assess the environmental performance related to waste management activities. This study analyses the packaging waste management system of a local public authority in Portugal. Themore » operations of selective and refuse collection, sorting, recycling, landfilling and incineration of packaging waste were considered. The packaging waste management system in operation in 2010, which we called “Baseline” scenario, was compared with two hypothetical scenarios where all the packaging waste that was selectively collected in 2010 would undergo the refuse collection system and would be sent directly to incineration (called “Incineration” scenario) or to landfill (“Landfill” scenario). Overall, the results show that the “Baseline” scenario is more environmentally sound than the hypothetical scenarios.« less

Real-world and trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis of bevacizumab in HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer patients: a study of the Southeast Netherlands Breast Cancer Consortium.

PubMed

van Kampen, R J W; Ramaekers, B L T; Lobbezoo, D J A; de Boer, M; Dercksen, M W; van den Berkmortel, F; Smilde, T J; van de Wouw, A J; Peters, F P J; van Riel, J M G; Peters, N A J B; Tjan-Heijnen, V C G; Joore, M A

2017-07-01

The aim of our analysis was to assess the real-world cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab in addition to taxane treatment versus taxane monotherapy for HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer compared with the cost-effectiveness based on the efficacy results from a trial. A state transition model was built to estimate costs, life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for both treatments. Two scenarios were examined: a real-world scenario and a trial-based scenario in which transition probabilities were primarily based on a real-world cohort study and the E2100 trial, respectively. In both scenarios, costs and utility parameter estimates were extracted from the real-world cohort study. Moreover, the Dutch health care perspective was adopted. In both the real-world and trial scenarios, bevacizumab-taxane is more expensive (incremental costs of €56,213 and €52,750, respectively) and more effective (incremental QALYs of 0.362 and 0.189, respectively) than taxane monotherapy. In the real-world scenario, bevacizumab-taxane compared to taxane monotherapy led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €155,261 per QALY gained. In the trial scenario, the ICER amounted to €278,711 per QALY gained. According to the Dutch informal threshold, bevacizumab in addition to taxane treatment was not considered cost-effective for HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer both in a real-world and in a trial scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Orchestrated Simulation Through Modeling to Quantify the Benefits of Unmanned-Teaming in a Tactical ASW Scenario

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-01

Results are compared to a previous study using a similar design of experiments but different simulation software. The baseline scenario for exploring the...behaviors are mimicked in this research, enabling Solem’s MANA results to be compared to our LITMUS’ results. By design , the principal difference...missions when using the second order NOLH, and compares favorably with the over six million in the full factorial design . 3. Advantages of Cluster

Environmental Influences on Mate Preferences as Assessed by a Scenario Manipulation Experiment

PubMed Central

Marzoli, Daniele; Moretto, Francesco; Monti, Aura; Tocci, Ornella; Roberts, S. Craig; Tommasi, Luca

2013-01-01

Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness) under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being). An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men) was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions. PMID:24069291

Budgetary Impact Analysis of Reimbursement Varenicline for the Smoking-Cessation Treatment in Patients with Cardiovascular Diseases, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease or Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus: A National Health System Perspective.

PubMed

Cedillo, Sergio; Sicras-Mainar, Antoni; Jiménez-Ruiz, Carlos A; Fernández de Bobadilla, Jaime; Rejas-Gutiérrez, Javier

2017-01-01

The study aimed to assess the budgetary impact (BI) of reimbursing varenicline in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), type-2 diabetes mellitus (t2-DM) or cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The BI was estimated comparing the current non-reimbursed scenario versus a projected reimbursed scenario using the Spanish National Health System (SNHS) perspective. A hybrid model was developed using epidemiological data and Markov chains to estimate smoking cessation rates with varenicline during a 5-year horizon. Costs of cessation were considered in the reimbursement scenario only. Efficacy, expressed as a 1-year continuous abstinence rate, was derived from clinical trials. Cost savings due to smoking cessation were extracted from local cost-of-illness studies. Results are shown as incremental cost savings. Univariate sensitivity analysis was also applied. A total of 68,684 patients stopped smoking in the reimbursed scenario compared with 15,208 without reimbursement. In the reimbursed scenario, total savings accounted for €36.3 million, showing 14.6 million accumulated additional savings compared with the scenario without reimbursement. Sensitivity analyses showed results to be robust with monetary savings starting in the third year of modeling. Reimbursement of varenicline in smoking cessation is a cost-effective health policy in the SNHS in COPD, t2-DM or CVD, and could produce cost savings starting in the third year of implementation. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

PubMed Central

Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

2015-01-01

Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment.

PubMed

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-02-05

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8-61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9-58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3-45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47, and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security.

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

PubMed Central

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

Effects of aggregation of drug and diagnostic codes on the performance of the high-dimensional propensity score algorithm: an empirical example.

PubMed

Le, Hoa V; Poole, Charles; Brookhart, M Alan; Schoenbach, Victor J; Beach, Kathleen J; Layton, J Bradley; Stürmer, Til

2013-11-19

The High-Dimensional Propensity Score (hd-PS) algorithm can select and adjust for baseline confounders of treatment-outcome associations in pharmacoepidemiologic studies that use healthcare claims data. How hd-PS performance is affected by aggregating medications or medical diagnoses has not been assessed. We evaluated the effects of aggregating medications or diagnoses on hd-PS performance in an empirical example using resampled cohorts with small sample size, rare outcome incidence, or low exposure prevalence. In a cohort study comparing the risk of upper gastrointestinal complications in celecoxib or traditional NSAIDs (diclofenac, ibuprofen) initiators with rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis, we (1) aggregated medications and International Classification of Diseases-9 (ICD-9) diagnoses into hierarchies of the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification (ATC) and the Clinical Classification Software (CCS), respectively, and (2) sampled the full cohort using techniques validated by simulations to create 9,600 samples to compare 16 aggregation scenarios across 50% and 20% samples with varying outcome incidence and exposure prevalence. We applied hd-PS to estimate relative risks (RR) using 5 dimensions, predefined confounders, ≤ 500 hd-PS covariates, and propensity score deciles. For each scenario, we calculated: (1) the geometric mean RR; (2) the difference between the scenario mean ln(RR) and the ln(RR) from published randomized controlled trials (RCT); and (3) the proportional difference in the degree of estimated confounding between that scenario and the base scenario (no aggregation). Compared with the base scenario, aggregations of medications into ATC level 4 alone or in combination with aggregation of diagnoses into CCS level 1 improved the hd-PS confounding adjustment in most scenarios, reducing residual confounding compared with the RCT findings by up to 19%. Aggregation of codes using hierarchical coding systems may improve the performance of the hd-PS to control for confounders. The balance of advantages and disadvantages of aggregation is likely to vary across research settings.

Effect of different scenarios for selective dry-cow therapy on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics.

PubMed

Scherpenzeel, C G M; den Uijl, I E M; van Schaik, G; Riekerink, R G M Olde; Hogeveen, H; Lam, T J G M

2016-05-01

The goal of dry-cow therapy (DCT) is to reduce the prevalence of intramammary infections (IMI) by eliminating existing IMI at drying off and preventing new IMI from occurring during the dry period. Due to public health concerns, however, preventive use of antimicrobials has become questionable. In this study, we evaluated the effects of 8 scenarios for selecting animals for DCT, taking into account variation in parity and cow-level somatic cell count (SCC) at drying off. The aim of this study was to evaluate udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics at the herd level when using different scenarios for selecting cows for DCT. To enable calculation and comparison of the effects of different scenarios to select cows for DCT in an "average" herd, we created an example herd, with a virtual herd size of 100 dairy cows to be calving during a year. Udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics were evaluated during the dry period and the first 100 d in lactation, the period during which the greatest effect of DCT is expected. This leads to an estimated 13,551 cow-days at risk during a year in a 100-cow dairy herd. In addition to a blanket DCT (BDCT) scenario, we developed 7 scenarios to select cows for DCT based on SCC. The scenarios covered a range of possible approaches to select low-SCC cows for DCT, all based on cow-level SCC thresholds on the last milk recording before drying off. The incidence rate of clinical mastitis in the example herd varied from 11.6 to 14.5 cases of clinical mastitis per 10,000 cow-days at risk in the different scenarios, and the prevalence of subclinical mastitis varied from 38.8% in scenario 1 (BDCT) to 48.3% in scenario 8. Total antimicrobial usage for DCT and clinical mastitis treatment varied over the scenarios from 1.27 (scenario 8) to 3.15 animal daily dosages (BDCT), leading to a maximum reduction in antimicrobial usage of 60% for scenario 8 compared with BDCT. The total costs for each of the scenarios showed little variation, varying from €4,893 for scenario 5 to €5,383 for scenario 8. The effect of selective DCT compared with BDCT on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics is influenced by the SCC criteria used to select cows for DCT. Scenario 2 resulted in the lowest increases in clinical and subclinical mastitis compared with BDCT. The greatest reduction in antimicrobial usage was achieved under scenario 8. From an economic perspective, lowest costs were achieved with scenario 5. Drying off dairy cows with antimicrobials has an effect on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

PubMed

Klein, Sharon J W

2013-12-17

Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators.

Investigating impact of waste reuse on the sustainability of municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration industry using emergy approach: A case study from Sichuan province, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yanqing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Liao, Wenjie; Wu, Jun; Yang, Xiangdong; Shui, Wei; Deng, Shihuai; Zhang, Yanzong; Lin, Lili; Xiao, Yinlong; Yu, Xiaoyu; Peng, Hong

2018-04-25

China has become the largest generator of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the world with its rapid urbanization, population growth and raising living standard. Among diverse solid waste disposal technologies, MSW incineration has been becoming an attractive choice. In terms of systematic point, an integrated MSW incineration system should include an incineration subsystem and a bottom ash (BA) disposal subsystem. This paper employed an extend emergy assessment method with several improved indicators, which considers the emissions' impact, to evaluate the comprehensive performances of an integrated MSW incineration system. One existing incineration plant in Yibin City, Sichuan Province, China, as a case study, is evaluated using the proposed method. Three alternative scenarios (scenario A: the incineration subsystem + the BA landfill subsystem; scenario B: the incineration subsystem + the concrete paving brick production subsystem using BA as raw material; scenario C: the incineration subsystem + the non-burnt wall brick production subsystem using BA as raw material) were compared. The study results reveal that the ratio of positive output is 1.225, 2.861 and 1.230, the improved environmental loading ratio is 2.715, 2.742 and 1.533, and the improved environmental sustainability index is 0.451, 1.043 and 0.803 for scenario A, B and C respectively. Therefore, reuse of BA can enhance the sustainability level of this integrated system greatly. Comparatively, scenario B has the best comprehensive performance among the three scenarios. Finally, some targeted recommendations are put forward for decision-making. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Waste battery treatment options: comparing their environmental performance.

PubMed

Briffaerts, K; Spirinckx, C; Van der Linden, A; Vrancken, K

2009-08-01

Waste consumer batteries are recycled using different routes based on hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical processes. Two hydrometallurgical and two pyrometallurgical treatment scenarios are compared starting from an average composition of Belgian waste batteries. The environmental performance is compared using life cycle analysis (LCA). The recycling rate is studied through mass balance calculation. Each treatment scenario results in a specific recycling rate. The environmental impact and benefits also vary between the treatment options. There is no such thing as a typical hydrometallurgical or pyrometallurgical treatment. When applying a hydrometallurgical treatment scenario, the focus lies on zinc and iron recycling. When allowing manganese recycling, the energy demand of the hydrometallurgical process increases considerably. Both pyrometallurgical options recycle zinc, iron and manganese. According to the LCA, none of the treatment scenarios performs generally better or worse than the others. Each option has specific advantages and disadvantages. The Batteries Directive 2006/66/EC sets out a recycling rate of 50% for consumer waste batteries. Based on metal recycling alone, the mass balances show that the target is difficult to obtain.

NASA TLA workload analysis support. Volume 1: Detailed task scenarios for general aviation and metering and spacing studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sundstrom, J. L.

1980-01-01

The techniques required to produce and validate six detailed task timeline scenarios for crew workload studies are described. Specific emphasis is given to: general aviation single pilot instrument flight rules operations in a high density traffic area; fixed path metering and spacing operations; and comparative workload operation between the forward and aft-flight decks of the NASA terminal control vehicle. The validation efforts also provide a cursory examination of the resultant demand workload based on the operating procedures depicted in the detailed task scenarios.

Effects of medical training scenarios on heart rate variability and motivation in students and simulated patients.

PubMed

Rieber, Nicole; Betz, Lisa; Enck, Paul; Muth, Eric; Nikendei, Christoph; Schrauth, Markus; Werner, Anne; Kowalski, Axel; Zipfel, Stephan

2009-06-01

Research regarding the experience of stress during medical training scenarios using standardised patients (SPs) has been primarily qualitative and has focused on the SPs. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate stress and motivation in both students and SPs during these scenarios by measuring heart rate variability (HRV) and administering the German version of the Questionnaire on Current Motivation (QCM). A total of 44 medical students (23 women, 21 men) participated in two medical history-taking training scenarios. In one scenario the SP role-played a patient with a somatic disease; in the other the SP played a patient with a psychosomatic disease, creating easy and difficult scenarios, respectively, for the student. Each student interviewed one of 11 SPs (five women, six men), using the same SP in both scenarios. Heart rate variability was measured during baseline periods and during the training scenarios in both students and SPs. Motivation was assessed before each training scenario. Heart rate variability was lower in both students and SPs during the scenarios compared with baseline values, but did not differ by scenario type. For students, motivation increased when the first scenario involved psychosomatic illness, but decreased when the first condition was somatic. For SPs motivation was consistent over time for scenarios involving psychosomatic disease, but decreased for somatic disease-related scenarios. The training scenarios induced stress in both students and SPs, as indicated by decreased HRV. Student motivation was high, indicating that SP scenarios represent a valid teaching method. Further studies in the natural setting of SP examinations are needed.

Who Recommends Long-Term Care Matters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kane, Robert L.; Bershadsky, Boris; Bershadsky, Julie

2006-01-01

Purpose: Making good consumer decisions requires having good information. This study compared long-term-care recommendations among various types of health professionals. Design and Methods: We gave randomly varied scenarios to a convenience national sample of 211 professionals from varying disciplines and work locations. For each scenario, we…

Changing smokers' risk perceptions--for better or worse?

PubMed

Myers, Lynn B

2014-03-01

This study investigated the effect of a smoking health message on smokers' comparative optimism. Two groups watched an anti-smoking scenario, with one group imagining being part of the scenario. Participants, including controls, completed comparative optimism ratings for four smoking-related illnesses. The intervention had negative consequences with both intervention groups reporting significantly higher comparative optimism versus the control group for all four smoking-related illnesses. It is concluded that media health messages can be powerful tools in changing comparative optimism but are influenced by peoples' prior perceptions. Health messages need to be systematically assessed to understand prior beliefs of the target audience.

Systematic exploration of efficient strategies to manage solid waste in U.S. municipalities: perspectives from the solid waste optimization life-cycle framework (SWOLF).

PubMed

Levis, James W; Barlaz, Morton A; Decarolis, Joseph F; Ranjithan, S Ranji

2014-04-01

Solid waste management (SWM) systems must proactively adapt to changing policy requirements, waste composition, and an evolving energy system to sustainably manage future solid waste. This study represents the first application of an optimizable dynamic life-cycle assessment framework capable of considering these future changes. The framework was used to draw insights by analyzing the SWM system of a hypothetical suburban U.S. city of 100 000 people over 30 years while considering changes to population, waste generation, and energy mix and costs. The SWM system included 3 waste generation sectors, 30 types of waste materials, and 9 processes for waste separation, treatment, and disposal. A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) was compared to three optimization scenarios that (1) minimized cost (Min Cost), (2) maximized diversion (Max Diversion), and (3) minimized greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Min GHG) from the system. The Min Cost scenario saved $7.2 million (12%) and reduced GHG emissions (3%) relative to the BAU scenario. Compared to the Max Diversion scenario, the Min GHG scenario cost approximately 27% less and more than doubled the net reduction in GHG emissions. The results illustrate how the timed-deployment of technologies in response to changes in waste composition and the energy system results in more efficient SWM system performance compared to what is possible from static analyses.

Comparison of the force applied on oral structures during intubation attempts by novice physicians between the Macintosh direct laryngoscope, Airway Scope and C-MAC PM: a high-fidelity simulator-based study.

PubMed

Nakanishi, Taizo; Shiga, Takashi; Homma, Yosuke; Koyama, Yasuaki; Goto, Tadahiro

2016-05-23

We examined whether the use of Airway Scope (AWS) and C-MAC PM (C-MAC) decreased the force applied on oral structures during intubation attempts as compared with the force applied with the use of Macintosh direct laryngoscope (DL). Prospective cross-over study. A total of 35 novice physicians participated. We used 6 simulation scenarios based on the difficulty of intubation and intubation devices. Our primary outcome measures were the maximum force applied on the maxillary incisors and tongue during intubation attempts, measured by a high-fidelity simulator. The maximum force applied on maxillary incisors was higher with the use of the C-MAC than with the DL and AWS in the normal airway scenario (DL, 26 Newton (N); AWS, 18 N; C-MAC, 52 N; p<0.01) and the difficult airway scenario (DL, 42 N; AWS, 24 N; C-MAC, 68 N; p<0.01). In contrast, the maximum force applied on the tongue was higher with the use of the DL than with the AWS and C-MAC in both airway scenarios (DL, 16 N; AWS, 1 N; C-MAC, 7 N; p<0.01 in the normal airway scenario; DL, 12 N; AWS, 4 N; C-MAC, 7 N; p<0.01 in the difficult airway scenario). The use of C-MAC, compared with the DL and AWS, was associated with the higher maximum force applied on maxillary incisors during intubation attempts. In contrast, the use of video laryngoscopes was associated with the lower force applied on the tongue in both airway scenarios, compared with the DL. Our study was a simulation-based study, and further research on living patients would be warranted. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Effects of Potential Future Warming on Runoff in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.

2008-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a long-term planning study of potential water-storage alternatives in the Yakima River Basin, which includes planning for climate change effects on available water resources in the basin. Previously constructed watershed models for the Yakima River Basin were used to simulate changes in unregulated streamflow under two warmer climate scenarios, one representing a 1 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus one scenario) and one representing a 2 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus two scenario). Simulations were done for water years 1981 through 2005 and the results were compared to simulated unregulated runoff for the same period using recorded daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperatures (base conditions). Precipitation was not altered for the two warmer climate change scenarios. Simulated annual runoff for the plus one and plus two scenarios decreased modestly from the base conditions, but the seasonal distribution and the general pattern of runoff proved to be highly sensitive to temperature changes throughout the basin. Seasonally increased runoff was simulated during the late autumn and winter months for both the plus one and plus two scenarios compared to base conditions. Comparisons at six principal regulatory locations in the basin showed that the maximum percentage increases in runoff over the base conditions during December to March varied from 24 to 48 percent for the plus one scenario and 59 to 94 percent for the plus two scenario. During late spring and summer months, significantly decreased runoff was simulated at these sites for both scenarios compared to base conditions. Simulated maximum decreases in runoff occurred during June and July, and the changes ranged from -22 to -51 percent for the plus one scenario and -44 to -76 percent for the plus two scenario. Differences in total annual runoff at these sites ranged from -1.4 to -3.9 percent for the plus one scenario and from -2.5 to -8.2 percent for the plus two scenario. The percent change of the monthly mean runoff for both scenarios from the base conditions at many points in the basin will be used in a water-management model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation to assess various storage alternatives.

Do Crashes and Near Crashes in Simulator-Based Training Enhance Novice Drivers’ Visual Search for Latent Hazards?

PubMed Central

Vlakveld, Willem; Romoser, Matthew R. E.; Mehranian, Hasmik; Diete, Frank; Pollatsek, Alexander; Fisher, Donald L.

2012-01-01

Young drivers (younger than 25 years of age) are overrepresented in crashes. Research suggests that a relevant cause is inadequate visual search for possible hazards that are hidden from view. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a low-cost, fixed-base simulator training program that would address this failure. It was hypothesized that elicited crashes in the simulator training would result in better scanning for latent hazards in scenarios that were similar to the training scenarios but situated in a different environment (near transfer), and, to a lesser degree, would result in better scanning in scenarios that had altogether different latent hazards than those contained in the training scenarios (far transfer). To test the hypotheses, 18 trained and 18 untrained young novice drivers were evaluated on an advanced driving simulator (different from the training simulator). The eye movements of both groups were measured. In near transfer scenarios, trained drivers fixated the hazardous region 84% of the time, compared with only 57% of untrained drivers. In far transfer scenarios, trained drivers fixated the hazardous region 71 % of the time, compared with only 53% of untrained drivers. The differences between trained and untrained drivers in both the near transfer scenarios and the far transfer scenarios were significant, with a large effect size in the near transfer scenarios and a medium effect size in the far transfer scenarios [respectively: U = 63.00, p(2-tailed) < .01, r = −.53, and U = 88.00, p(2-tailed)<.05,r = −.39]. PMID:23082041

A novel methodology for interpreting air quality measurements from urban streets using CFD modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solazzo, Efisio; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Cai, Xiaoming

2011-09-01

In this study, a novel computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based methodology has been developed to interpret long-term averaged measurements of pollutant concentrations collected at roadside locations. The methodology is applied to the analysis of pollutant dispersion in Stratford Road (SR), a busy street canyon in Birmingham (UK), where a one-year sampling campaign was carried out between August 2005 and July 2006. Firstly, a number of dispersion scenarios are defined by combining sets of synoptic wind velocity and direction. Assuming neutral atmospheric stability, CFD simulations are conducted for all the scenarios, by applying the standard k-ɛ turbulence model, with the aim of creating a database of normalised pollutant concentrations at specific locations within the street. Modelled concentration for all wind scenarios were compared with hourly observed NO x data. In order to compare with long-term averaged measurements, a weighted average of the CFD-calculated concentration fields was derived, with the weighting coefficients being proportional to the frequency of each scenario observed during the examined period (either monthly or annually). In summary the methodology consists of (i) identifying the main dispersion scenarios for the street based on wind speed and directions data, (ii) creating a database of CFD-calculated concentration fields for the identified dispersion scenarios, and (iii) combining the CFD results based on the frequency of occurrence of each dispersion scenario during the examined period. The methodology has been applied to calculate monthly and annually averaged benzene concentration at several locations within the street canyon so that a direct comparison with observations could be made. The results of this study indicate that, within the simplifying assumption of non-buoyant flow, CFD modelling can aid understanding of long-term air quality measurements, and help assessing the representativeness of monitoring locations for population exposure studies.

C-MAC compared with direct laryngoscopy for intubation in patients with cervical spine immobilization: A manikin trial.

PubMed

Smereka, Jacek; Ladny, Jerzy R; Naylor, Amanda; Ruetzler, Kurt; Szarpak, Lukasz

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare C-MAC videolaryngoscopy with direct laryngoscopy for intubation in simulated cervical spine immobilization conditions. The study was designed as a prospective randomized crossover manikin trial. 70 paramedics with <5years of medical experience participated in the study. The paramedics attempted to intubate manikins in 3 airway scenarios: normal airway without cervical immobilization (Scenario A); manual inline cervical immobilization (Scenario B); cervical immobilization using cervical extraction collar (Scenario C). Scenario A: Nearly all participants performed successful intubations with both MAC and C-MAC on the first attempt (95.7% MAC vs. 100% C-MAC), with similar intubation times (16.5s MAC vs. 18s C-MAC). Scenario B: The results with C-MAC were significantly better than those with MAC (p<0.05) for the time of intubation (23 s MAC vs. 19 s C-MAC), success of the first intubation attempt (88.6% MAC vs. 100% C-MAC), Cormack-Lehane grade, POGO score, severity of dental compression, device difficulty score, and preferred airway device. Scenario C: The results with C-MAC were significantly better than those with MAC (p<0.05) for all the analysed variables: success of the first attempt (51.4% MAC vs. 100% C-MAC), overall success rate, intubation time (27 s MAC vs. 20.5 s C-MAC), Cormack-Lehane grade, POGO score, dental compression, device difficulty score and the preferred airway device. The C-MAC videolaryngoscope is an excellent alternative to the MAC laryngoscope for intubating manikins with cervical spine immobilization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

PubMed

Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P

2015-01-01

Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P.

2015-01-01

Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China. PMID:26439928

The brain’s conversation with itself: neural substrates of dialogic inner speech

PubMed Central

Weis, Susanne; McCarthy-Jones, Simon; Moseley, Peter; Smailes, David; Fernyhough, Charles

2016-01-01

Inner speech has been implicated in important aspects of normal and atypical cognition, including the development of auditory hallucinations. Studies to date have focused on covert speech elicited by simple word or sentence repetition, while ignoring richer and arguably more psychologically significant varieties of inner speech. This study compared neural activation for inner speech involving conversations (‘dialogic inner speech’) with single-speaker scenarios (‘monologic inner speech’). Inner speech-related activation differences were then compared with activations relating to Theory-of-Mind (ToM) reasoning and visual perspective-taking in a conjunction design. Generation of dialogic (compared with monologic) scenarios was associated with a widespread bilateral network including left and right superior temporal gyri, precuneus, posterior cingulate and left inferior and medial frontal gyri. Activation associated with dialogic scenarios and ToM reasoning overlapped in areas of right posterior temporal cortex previously linked to mental state representation. Implications for understanding verbal cognition in typical and atypical populations are discussed. PMID:26197805

Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bosello, Francesco; Butenschön, Momme; Elliott, Mike; Peck, Myron A.; Pinnegar, John K.

2018-02-01

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

Comparison of Sigma-Point and Extended Kalman Filters on a Realistic Orbit Determination Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaebler, John; Hur-Diaz. Sun; Carpenter, Russell

2010-01-01

Sigma-point filters have received a lot of attention in recent years as a better alternative to extended Kalman filters for highly nonlinear problems. In this paper, we compare the performance of the additive divided difference sigma-point filter to the extended Kalman filter when applied to orbit determination of a realistic operational scenario based on the Interstellar Boundary Explorer mission. For the scenario studied, both filters provided equivalent results. The performance of each is discussed in detail.

Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Jacob, Daniela

2013-02-01

SummaryAn assessment of the impact of global climate change on the water resources status of the island of Crete, for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime is presented. Three "state of the art" Global Climate Models (GCMs) and an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under emission scenarios B1, A2 and A1B provide future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) estimates that are bias adjusted against observations. The ensemble of RCMs for the A1B scenario project a higher P reduction compared to GCMs projections under A2 and B1 scenarios. Among GCMs model results, the ECHAM model projects a higher P reduction compared to IPSL and CNCM. Water availability for the whole island at basin scale until 2100 is estimated using the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model And a set of demand and infrastructure scenarios are adopted to simulate potential water use. While predicted reduction of water availability under the B1 emission scenario can be handled with water demand stabilized at present values and full implementation of planned infrastructure, other scenarios require additional measures and a robust signal of water insufficiency is projected. Despite inherent uncertainties, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like Crete. The results of the study reinforce the necessity to improve and update local water management planning and adaptation strategies in order to attain future water security.

Preservice Teachers' Responses to Bullying Scenarios: Comparing Physical, Verbal, and Relational Bullying

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bauman, Sheri; Del Rio, Adrienne

2006-01-01

In the present study, 82 undergraduate students in a teacher education program responded to 6 written vignettes describing school bullying incidents. Scenarios described physical bullying, verbal bullying, and relational bullying events. Respondents rated relational bullying as the least serious of the 3 types. Participants had the least empathy…

Evaluating the Effects of Land Use Planning for Non-Point Source Pollution Based on a System Dynamics Approach in China

PubMed Central

Kuai, Peng; Li, Wei; Liu, Nianfeng

2015-01-01

Urbanization is proceeding rapidly in several developing countries such as China. This accelerating urbanization alters the existing land use types in a way that results in more Non-Point Source (NPS) pollution to local surface waters. Reasonable land use planning is necessary. This paper compares seven planning scenarios of a case study area, namely Wulijie, China, from the perspective of NPS pollution. A System Dynamics (SD) model was built for the comparison to adequately capture the planning complexity. These planning scenarios, which were developed by combining different land use intensities (LUIs) and construction speeds (CSs), were then simulated. The results show that compared to scenario S1 (business as usual) all other scenarios will introduce more NPS pollution (with an incremental rate of 22%-70%) to Wulijie. Scenario S6 was selected as the best because it induced relatively less NPS pollution while simultaneously maintaining a considerable development rate. Although LUIs represent a more critical factor compared to CSs, we conclude that both LUIs and CSs need to be taken into account to make the planning more environmentally friendly. Considering the power of SD in decision support, it is recommended that land use planning should take into consideration findings acquired from SD simulations. PMID:26267482

Implementation of system dynamic simulation method to optimize profit in supply chain network of vegetable product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tama, I. P.; Akbar, Z.; Eunike, A.

2018-04-01

Vegetables are categorized as a perishable product, which is a product with short lifespan thus requires proper handling and planning to reduce losses caused by the short lifespan. In order to reduce the losses, coordination among the players in the supply chain is required. On the other hand, the decision in the supply chain of vegetables and other farming products in the traditional market of developing country is independent among the players. This research is conducted by using System Dynamic Simulation method to develop model and scenario by coordinating the supply quantity amongst players in the supply chain. The scenarios are developed based on newsboy inventory model. This study aims to compare scenarios combining tiers involved in coordination program. The result shows that coordination in supply chain increases total supply chain profit, although there will always be players who experienced decrements in profit. The scenario of coordination among the farmer, the distributor, and the wholesaler resulted in the highest increase in total supply chain profit compared to other coordination scenarios, with an increased value of 10.49%.

A Benchmark and Comparative Study of Video-Based Face Recognition on COX Face Database.

PubMed

Huang, Zhiwu; Shan, Shiguang; Wang, Ruiping; Zhang, Haihong; Lao, Shihong; Kuerban, Alifu; Chen, Xilin

2015-12-01

Face recognition with still face images has been widely studied, while the research on video-based face recognition is inadequate relatively, especially in terms of benchmark datasets and comparisons. Real-world video-based face recognition applications require techniques for three distinct scenarios: 1) Videoto-Still (V2S); 2) Still-to-Video (S2V); and 3) Video-to-Video (V2V), respectively, taking video or still image as query or target. To the best of our knowledge, few datasets and evaluation protocols have benchmarked for all the three scenarios. In order to facilitate the study of this specific topic, this paper contributes a benchmarking and comparative study based on a newly collected still/video face database, named COX(1) Face DB. Specifically, we make three contributions. First, we collect and release a largescale still/video face database to simulate video surveillance with three different video-based face recognition scenarios (i.e., V2S, S2V, and V2V). Second, for benchmarking the three scenarios designed on our database, we review and experimentally compare a number of existing set-based methods. Third, we further propose a novel Point-to-Set Correlation Learning (PSCL) method, and experimentally show that it can be used as a promising baseline method for V2S/S2V face recognition on COX Face DB. Extensive experimental results clearly demonstrate that video-based face recognition needs more efforts, and our COX Face DB is a good benchmark database for evaluation.

The impact of sheep grazing on the carbon balance of a peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fred, F.; Clay, G. D.

2012-04-01

This study estimates the greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes resulting from sheep grazing upon upland peat soils. Previous studies have been limited to individual flux pathways or to comparing the presence to the absence of sheep grazing. Therefore, this study combines a model of the physical impact of grazing with models of: biomass production; energy usage in sheep; and peat accumulation. These combined modelling approaches enables this study to consider the indirect and direct impacts of sheep upon the carbon and greenhouse gas balance of a peatland at different grazing intensities as well as the changes between states of grazing. The study considered four vegetation scenarios (Calluna sp., Molinia sp.; reseeded grasses, and Agrostis-Festuca grassland) and a mixed vegetation scenario based upon the vegetation typical of upland peat ecosystems in northern England. Each scenario was considered for altitudes between 350 and 900 m above sea level and for grazing intensities between 0.1 and 2 ewes/ha. The study can show that the total GHG flux at the vegetative carrying capacity tended to decline with increasing altitude for all vegetation scenarios considered except for Molinia sp. The average total GHG flux for all scenarios was 1350 kg CO2eq/ha/yr/ewe/ha, and on average 91% of the fluxes were directly from the sheep and not from the soil ,and are therefore not unique to a peat soil environment. The study suggests that emissions factors for upland sheep have been greatly underestimated. By comparing the total flux due to grazers to the flux to or from the soil allows the study to define a GHG carry capacity. i.e. the grazing intensity at which the flux due to grazing is equal to the sink represented by the peat soils, this GHG carrying capacity varies between 0.2 and 1.7 ewes/ha with this capacity declining with increasing altitude for all model scenarios.

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

PubMed

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted two metropolitan communities that exhibit differing growth projections and water portfolios; moderate growth with a diverse portfolio versus high growth for a more restrictive portfolio. Results illustrate that both communities exhibited an expanding envelope of possible, future water outcomes with rational water management trajectories. However, a more diverse portfolio resulted in a broad, time-insensitive decision space for management interventions. The reverse was true for the more restrictive water portfolio with high growth projections.

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

PubMed

Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

2006-06-01

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

Truview EVO2 and standard Macintosh laryngoscope for tracheal intubation during cardiopulmonary resuscitation: a comparative randomized crossover study.

PubMed

Gaszynska, Ewelina; Gaszynski, Tomasz

2014-09-01

The aim of this study was to compare the performance of the Truview EVO2 laryngoscope in manikin-simulated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and no-CPR scenarios with standard intubation technique. Participants performed 4 scenarios in random order: endotracheal intubation (ETI) using Macintosh laryngoscope (MCL), Truview EVO2 laryngoscope in no-CPR patient scenario, and intubation during uninterrupted chest compressions using both laryngoscopes. The participants were directed to make 3 attempts in each scenario. Primary outcomes were time to tracheal intubation (TTI) and intubation success, whereas secondary outcomes were cumulative success ratio and the number of esophageal intubation (EI). TTI and success ratios were reported per attempt. Thirty paramedics completed the study. Median TTI with Truview EVO2 with CPR was 36 (interquartile range [IQR] 29.00-52.00), 22.5 (IQR 18.33-35.00), and 18 (IQR 11.00-23.00) seconds; MCL with CPR was 23 (IQR 18.92-36.90), 16.8 (IQR 14.00-22.31), and 14.5 (IQR 11.12-16.36) seconds; Truview EVO2 without CPR was 28.6 (IQR 24.02-38.34), 21.7 (IQR 17.00-25.00), and 13 (IQR 11.90-17.79) seconds; MCL without CPR was 17 (IQR 13.23-22.29), 13 (IQR 12.09-15.26), and 12.4 (IQR 10.08-19.84) seconds for first, second, and third attempts, respectively. The P values for differences in TTI between Truview EVO2 and MCL were P < 0.0001, P = 0.0540, and P = 0.7550 in CPR scenario and P = 0.0080, P = 0.1570, and P = 0.7652 in no-CPR scenario for first, second, and third attempts, respectively. The success ratios for each of the scenarios were as follows: in CPR scenario it was 0.73 versus 0.53 (P = 0.0558), 0.83 versus 0.76 (P = 0.2633), and 1 versus 0.8 (P = 0.0058); in no-CPR scenario it was 0.63 versus 0.73 (P = 0.2068), 0.86 versus 0.86, and 0.97 versus 1 (P = 0.1637) for Truview EVO2 vs MCL in first, second, and third attempts, respectively. The cumulative success ratio related to the time of ETI was better for MCL compared with Truview EVO2 laryngoscope in both scenarios (P = 0.0029 and P = 0.0004 in no-CPR and CPR scenarios). The number of EI with MCL was 30% versus 13.3% (P = 0.0113), and for Truview EVO2 it was 20.45% versus 15.56% in CPR and no-CPR scenarios, respectively. The application of Truview EVO2 during uninterrupted chest compressions increased TTI but increased the success ratio of ETI and decreased number of EIs.

Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

2015-10-01

The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a decrease of the lowest flows, except for the SWAT model with the mean hydrological impact climate change scenario. The results of this study indicate that besides the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios also the hydrological model structure uncertainty should be taken into account in the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology. To make it more straightforward and transparent to include model structural uncertainty in hydrological impact studies, there is a need for hydrological modelling tools that allow flexible structures and methods to validate model structures in their ability to assess impacts under unobserved future climatic conditions.

Biofuel Induced Land Use Change effects on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, I.; Cibin, R.; Frankenberger, J.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Volenec, J. J.; Brouder, S. M.

2015-12-01

High yielding perennial grasses such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and crop residues such as corn stover are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. We have evaluated the potential impacts of biofuel induced land use changes on hydrology, water quality, and ecosystem services. The bioenergy production scenarios, included: production of Miscanthus × giganteus and switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas, and pastures; removal of corn stover at various rates; and combinations of these scenarios. The hydrology and water quality impacts of land use change scenarios were estimated for two watersheds in Midwest USA (1) Wildcat Creek watershed (drainage area of 2,083 km2) located in north-central Indiana and (2) St. Joseph River watershed (drainage area of 2,809 km2) located in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. We have also simulated the impacts of climate change and variability on environmental sustainability and have compared climate change impacts with land use change impacts. The study results indicated improved water quality with perennial grass scenarios compared to current row crop production impacts. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet were reduced between 0.2 and 8% among various bioenergy crop production scenarios. Stover removal scenarios indicated increased erosion compared to baseline condition due reduced soil cover after stover harvest. Stream flow and nitrate loading were reduced with stover removal due to increased soil evaporation and reduced mineralization. A comparison of land use and climate change impacts indicates that land use changes will have considerably larger impacts on hydrology, water quality and environmental sustainability compared to climate change and variability. Our results indicate that production of biofuel crops can be optimized at the landscape level to provide adequate supply of biomass while improving water quality and environmental sustainability.

Blending Face-to-Face Higher Education with Web-Based Lectures: Comparing Different Didactical Application Scenarios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montrieux, Hannelore; Vangestel, Sandra; Raes, Annelies; Matthys, Paul; Schellens, Tammy

2015-01-01

Blended learning as an instructional approach is getting more attention in the educational landscape and has been researched thoroughly. Yet, this study reports the results of an innovation project aiming to gain insight into three different scenarios of applying web-based lectures: as preparation for face-to-face practical exercises, as a…

Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

Affective Realism of Animated Films in the Development of Simulation-Based Tutoring Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ekanayake, Hiran B.; Fors, Uno; Ramberg, Robert; Ziemke, Tom; Backlund, Per; Hewagamage, Kamalanath P.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a study focused on comparing real actors based scenarios and animated characters based scenarios with respect to their similarity in evoking psychophysiological activity for certain events by measuring galvanic skin response (GSR). In the experiment, one group (n = 11) watched the real actors' film whereas another group (n…

When does alcohol hurt? A driving simulator study.

PubMed

Vollrath, Mark; Fischer, Josefine

2017-12-01

World-wide, alcohol is still a major cause of traffic accidents. The dose-related accident risk function has been found in a large number of risk studies. A plethora of laboratory studies has examined the effect of alcohol with regard to different information processing capabilities of drivers. Summarizing the results, alcohol effects occur at lower blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) the more complex the tasks get. However, in contrast, typical alcohol-related crashes are frequently single vehicle crashes but not so often crashes in complex situations like at intersections. It may be that the subjective assessment of the traffic situation and the adaptation of behavior under the influence of alcohol plays a major role in accident causation. In order to examine this hypothesis, two driving simulator studies were conducted at a target BAC of 0.5g/l comparing two (alcohol vs. placebo; n=48, Experiment 1) and three (sober, placebo and alcohol; n=63, Experiment 2) groups of subjects in two critical scenarios. The first scenario was a seemingly easy traffic situation and was supposed to lead to a relaxed driving behavior under alcohol. The second scenario involved a complex intersection situation where especially drivers under the influence of alcohol should try to concentrate and compensate their experienced alcohol effects. In all scenarios, a critical object appeared suddenly and the driver had to react fast in order to prevent a (simulated) accident. Overall, the results support the hypothesis. Accidents were more frequent for alcohol drivers as compared to placebo/sober drivers in the easy scenario, but not the complex one. The initial speed of the driver when entering the scenario seems to play a major role in the accident causation. Drivers under the influence of alcohol seem to lower their speed in complex scenarios, possibly to thus counteract alcohol effects. In seemingly easy scenarios this does not seem necessary for them and the arousing effect of alcohol may contribute to driving faster. The results are summarized in a model of alcohol-related crashes. Further in-depth analyses of real crashes would be an interesting next step to further corroborate this model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quasi-Experiment Study on Effectiveness Evaluation of Health Communication Strategies

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

This experimental study examined differences in doctor-patient relationships according to the health communication strategies during cases of medical malpractices occurred at primary medical institution. A total of 116 subjects aged in their 20s-50s was sampled. The first medical malpractice scenario chosen was the medical malpractice case most frequently registered at the Korean Medical Association Mutual Aid and the second scenario was associated with materials and devices as the cause of malpractice. Four types of crisis communication strategy messages were utilized, consisting of denial, denial + ingratiation, apology, and apology + ingratiation. Subjects were classified into four research groups by crisis communication strategy to measure levels of trust, control mutuality, commitment, and satisfaction, before and after the occurrence of medical malpractice and application of communication strategies. The findings of this study revealed that the apology strategy, compared with the denial strategy, showed a smaller difference before and after the application of communication strategies in all variables of trust (F = 8.080, F = 5.768), control mutuality (F = 8.824, F = 9.081), commitment (F = 9.815, F = 8.301), and satisfaction (F = 8.723, F = 5.638). Further, a significant interaction effect was shown between variables. The apology strategy, compared with the denial strategy, was effective in the improvement of doctor-patient relationships in both Scenarios I and II. For Scenario I, the apology strategy without ingratiation boosted commitment and satisfaction, but for Scenario II, utilizing the apology strategy with ingratiation boosted the effectiveness of trust and commitment. PMID:27365998

Quasi-Experiment Study on Effectiveness Evaluation of Health Communication Strategies.

PubMed

Song, Dae Jong; Choi, Jae Wook; Kim, Kyunghee; Kim, Min Soo; Moon, Jiwon Monica

2016-07-01

This experimental study examined differences in doctor-patient relationships according to the health communication strategies during cases of medical malpractices occurred at primary medical institution. A total of 116 subjects aged in their 20s-50s was sampled. The first medical malpractice scenario chosen was the medical malpractice case most frequently registered at the Korean Medical Association Mutual Aid and the second scenario was associated with materials and devices as the cause of malpractice. Four types of crisis communication strategy messages were utilized, consisting of denial, denial + ingratiation, apology, and apology + ingratiation. Subjects were classified into four research groups by crisis communication strategy to measure levels of trust, control mutuality, commitment, and satisfaction, before and after the occurrence of medical malpractice and application of communication strategies. The findings of this study revealed that the apology strategy, compared with the denial strategy, showed a smaller difference before and after the application of communication strategies in all variables of trust (F = 8.080, F = 5.768), control mutuality (F = 8.824, F = 9.081), commitment (F = 9.815, F = 8.301), and satisfaction (F = 8.723, F = 5.638). Further, a significant interaction effect was shown between variables. The apology strategy, compared with the denial strategy, was effective in the improvement of doctor-patient relationships in both Scenarios I and II. For Scenario I, the apology strategy without ingratiation boosted commitment and satisfaction, but for Scenario II, utilizing the apology strategy with ingratiation boosted the effectiveness of trust and commitment.

Use of the landmark method to address immortal person-time bias in comparative effectiveness research: a simulation study.

PubMed

Mi, Xiaojuan; Hammill, Bradley G; Curtis, Lesley H; Lai, Edward Chia-Cheng; Setoguchi, Soko

2016-11-20

Observational comparative effectiveness and safety studies are often subject to immortal person-time, a period of follow-up during which outcomes cannot occur because of the treatment definition. Common approaches, like excluding immortal time from the analysis or naïvely including immortal time in the analysis, are known to result in biased estimates of treatment effect. Other approaches, such as the Mantel-Byar and landmark methods, have been proposed to handle immortal time. Little is known about the performance of the landmark method in different scenarios. We conducted extensive Monte Carlo simulations to assess the performance of the landmark method compared with other methods in settings that reflect realistic scenarios. We considered four landmark times for the landmark method. We found that the Mantel-Byar method provided unbiased estimates in all scenarios, whereas the exclusion and naïve methods resulted in substantial bias when the hazard of the event was constant or decreased over time. The landmark method performed well in correcting immortal person-time bias in all scenarios when the treatment effect was small, and provided unbiased estimates when there was no treatment effect. The bias associated with the landmark method tended to be small when the treatment rate was higher in the early follow-up period than it was later. These findings were confirmed in a case study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dynamic assessment of urban economy-environment-energy system using system dynamics model: A case study in Beijing.

PubMed

Wu, Desheng; Ning, Shuang

2018-07-01

Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drug Resistance Strategies Rural Hawaiian Youth of as a Function of Drug Offerers and Substances: A Community Stakeholder Analysis

PubMed Central

Okamoto, Scott K.; Helm, Susana; Kulis, Stephen; Delp, Justin A.; Dinson, Ay-Laina

2012-01-01

This study examined the variations in drug resistance strategies endorsed by community members for rural Native Hawaiian youth in drug-related problem situations. Community stakeholders completed a Web-based survey focused on drug-related problem scenarios and their matched set of responses developed by middle/intermediate school youth in prior research. Mean differences were examined based on drug offerers described in the scenarios (i.e., peers/friends, cousins, and parents) and the substances offered in the scenarios (i.e., marijuana and alcohol). Compared with other strategies, Refuse had the highest mean scores within two offerer subgroups (peers/friends and cousins) and within both substances (alcohol and marijuana). Leave had the highest mean score within scenarios describing drug offers from parents. The endorsement of different resistance strategies varied based on drug offerers and substances offered in the selected scenarios. This study suggests that resistance skills in prevention should be tailored to youths’ social context in rural Hawai‘i. PMID:24212171

Communications payload concepts for geostationary facilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poley, William A.; Lekan, Jack

1987-01-01

Summarized and compared are the major results of two NASA sponsored studies that defined potential communication payload concepts to meet the satellite traffic forecast for the turn of the century for the continental US and Region 2 of the International Telecommunications Union. The studies were performed by the Ford Aerospace and Communications Corporation and RCA Astro-Electronics (now GE-RCA Astro-Space Division). Future scenarios of aggregations of communications services are presented. Payload concepts are developed and defined in detail for nine of the scenarios. Payload costs and critical technologies per payload are also presented. Finally the payload concepts are compared and the findings of the reports are discussed.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cibin, Raj; Trybula, Elizabeth; Chaubey, Indrajeet

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstock such as perennial grasses and crop residues are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. Here, we used an improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to forecast impacts on watershed hydrology and water quality by implementing an array of plausible land-use changes associated with commercial bioenergy crop production for two watersheds in the Midwest USA. Watershed-scale impacts were estimated for 13 bioenergy crop production scenarios, including: production of Miscanthus 9 giganteus and upland Shawnee switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas and pastures, removal ofmore » corn stover and combinations of these options. We also measured water quality as erosion and sediment loading; this was forecasted to improve compared to baseline when perennial grasses were used for bioenergy production, but not with stover removal scenarios. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced between 0 and 8% across these bioenergy crop production scenarios compared to baseline across the study watersheds. Our results indicate that bioenergy production scenarios that incorporate perennial grasses reduced the nonpoint source pollutant load at the watershed outlet compared to the baseline conditions (0–20% for nitrate-nitrogen and 3–56% for mineral phosphorus); but, the reduction rates were specific to site characteristics and management practices.« less

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

Neural Processing Associated with Comprehension of an Indirect Reply during a Scenario Reading Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shibata, Midori; Abe, Jun-ichi; Itoh, Hiroaki; Shimada, Koji; Umeda, Satoshi

2011-01-01

In daily communication, we often use indirect speech to convey our intention. However, little is known about the brain mechanisms that underlie the comprehension of indirect speech. In this study, we conducted a functional MRI experiment using a scenario reading task to compare the neural activity induced by an indirect reply (a type of indirect…

A Comparison of the Kernel Equating Method with Traditional Equating Methods Using SAT[R] Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Jinghua; Low, Albert C.

2008-01-01

This study applied kernel equating (KE) in two scenarios: equating to a very similar population and equating to a very different population, referred to as a distant population, using SAT[R] data. The KE results were compared to the results obtained from analogous traditional equating methods in both scenarios. The results indicate that KE results…

Environmental consequences of future biogas technologies based on separated slurry.

PubMed

Hamelin, Lorie; Wesnæs, Marianne; Wenzel, Henrik; Petersen, Bjørn M

2011-07-01

This consequential life cycle assessment study highlights the key environmental aspects of producing biogas from separated pig and cow slurry, a relatively new but probable scenario for future biogas production, as it avoids the reliance on constrained carbon cosubstrates. Three scenarios involving different slurry separation technologies have been assessed and compared to a business-as-usual reference slurry management scenario. The results show that the environmental benefits of such biogas production are highly dependent upon the efficiency of the separation technology used to concentrate the volatile solids in the solid fraction. The biogas scenario involving the most efficient separation technology resulted in a dry matter separation efficiency of 87% and allowed a net reduction of the global warming potential of 40%, compared to the reference slurry management. This figure comprises the whole slurry life cycle, including the flows bypassing the biogas plant. This study includes soil carbon balances and a method for quantifying the changes in yield resulting from increased nitrogen availability as well as for quantifying mineral fertilizers displacement. Soil carbon balances showed that between 13 and 50% less carbon ends up in the soil pool with the different biogas alternatives, as opposed to the reference slurry management.

Evaluation of comparative advantages in the profitability and competitiveness of the small-scale dairy system of Tulancingo Valley, Mexico.

PubMed

Posadas-Domínguez, Rodolfo Rogelio; Del Razo-Rodríguez, Oscar Enrique; Almaraz-Buendía, Isaac; Pelaez-Acero, Armando; Espinosa-Muñoz, Verónica; Rebollar-Rebollar, Samuel; Salinas-Martínez, Jesús Armando

2018-06-01

This article combines a Policy Analysis Matrix with a sensitivity and poverty line analysis with the objective of evaluating the economic contribution of comparative advantages to the private profitability and competitiveness of small-scale dairy systems. For 1 year, socioeconomic data were collected from 82 farms selected from four strata via statistical sampling. Two scenarios were established to determine the quantitative contribution of comparative advantages: (1) a simulated scenario, which accounted for the cost of purchasing the total food and the opportunity cost of the family labour force (FLF), and (2) an actual production scenario, which accounted for the cost of producing food and eliminating the payment of the FLF and included other income. The E3 and E4 producers were the most profitable and competitive in the simulated scenario and actual production scenario. Of the four scales evaluated, the E2 and E1 producers were the most efficient in taking advantage of the economic contribution provided by the comparative advantages in their own production of food and employment of the FLF, in addition to accounting for other income, a condition that increased their profitability by 171 and 144% and competitiveness by 346 and 273%, respectively. The poverty results indicated that only E3 and E4 producers were non-vulnerable in the simulated scenario and actual production scenario. The purchase of food was the comparative advantage with the greatest sensitivity to cost increases in the two scenarios analysed, which exacerbated the effect on the E1 and E2 producers.

Short communication: economics of sex-biased milk production.

PubMed

Ettema, J F; Østergaard, S

2015-02-01

In a recent data study using 2.4 million lactations of 1.5 million cows, it was reported that gestation of a female calf in the first parity increases cumulative milk production by approximately 445kg over the first 2 lactations. The reported effect in this study is large and remarkable because it has not been found before. To our knowledge, the economic implications of this or any other sex bias have not been studied. The objective of the current study was to quantify the reported influence of fetal sex across lactations by using a simulation model of a dairy herd including youngstock. Two scenarios were evaluated and compared with a scenario in which cows and heifers were exclusively bred with conventional (nonsexed) semen. In the first scenario, sexed semen was used moderately-on 30% of all heifers and 30% of the first parity cows. A second scenario was studied in which sexed semen was used intensively-on all heifers and 50% of the first-parity cows. The simulated proportion of cows giving birth to 2 consecutive heifers increased from 23% when using exclusively conventional semen up to 31 and 48% when using sexed semen moderately and intensively, respectively. The proportion of cows having 2 consecutive bulls decreased from 27% (conventional semen only) to 20 and 8% when using sexed semen moderately and intensively, respectively. When incorporating the sex bias in the simulation model, the simulated milk yield in the scenario in which sexed semen was used moderately increased by 48kg of energy-corrected milk (ECM) per cow/yr, compared with only 36kg of ECM when not incorporating the sex bias in the model. For the scenario in which sexed semen was used intensively, milk yield increased by 66 and 99kg of ECM when excluding and including the sex bias, respectively. The economic implications of the assumed sex bias were €4.0 and €9.9 per cow/yr, in the scenarios in which sexed semen was used moderately and intensively, respectively. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

PubMed

Lane, Diana R; Ready, Richard C; Buddemeier, Robert W; Martinich, Jeremy A; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W

2013-01-01

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

PubMed Central

Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W.

2013-01-01

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100. PMID:24391717

Can productivity and profitability be enhanced in intensively managed cereal systems while reducing the environmental footprint of production? Assessing sustainable intensification options in the breadbasket of India.

PubMed

Kumar, Virender; Jat, Hanuman S; Sharma, Parbodh C; Balwinder-Singh; Gathala, Mahesh K; Malik, Ram K; Kamboj, Baldev R; Yadav, Arvind K; Ladha, Jagdish K; Raman, Anitha; Sharma, D K; McDonald, Andrew

2018-01-15

In the most productive area of the Indo-Gangetic Plains in Northwest India where high yields of rice and wheat are commonplace, a medium-term cropping system trial was conducted in Haryana State. The goal of the study was to identify integrated management options for further improving productivity and profitability while rationalizing resource use and reducing environmental externalities (i.e., "sustainable intensification", SI) by drawing on the principles of diversification, precision management, and conservation agriculture. Four scenarios were evaluated: Scenario 1 - "business-as-usual" [conventional puddled transplanted rice (PTR) followed by ( fb ) conventional-till wheat]; Scenario 2 - reduced tillage with opportunistic diversification and precision resource management [PTR fb zero-till (ZT) wheat fb ZT mungbean]; Scenario 3 - ZT for all crops with opportunistic diversification and precision resource management [ZT direct-seeded rice (ZT-DSR) fb ZT wheat fb ZT mungbean]; and Scenario 4 - ZT for all crops with strategic diversification and precision resource management [ZT maize fb ZT wheat fb ZT mungbean]. Results of this five-year study strongly suggest that, compared with business-as-usual practices, SI strategies that incorporate multi-objective yield, economic, and environmental criteria can be more productive when used in these production environments. For Scenarios 2, 3, and 4, system-level increases in productivity (10-17%) and profitability (24-50%) were observed while using less irrigation water (15-71% reduction) and energy (17-47% reduction), leading to 15-30% lower global warming potential (GWP), with the ranges reflecting the implications of specific innovations. Scenario 3, where early wheat sowing was combined with ZT along with no puddling during the rice phase, resulted in a 13% gain in wheat yield compared with Scenario 2. A similar gain in wheat yield was observed in Scenario 4 vis-à-vis Scenario 2. Compared to Scenario 1, wheat yields in Scenarios 3 and 4 were 15-17% higher, whereas, in Scenario 2, yield was either similar in normal years or higher in warmer years. During the rainy ( kharif ) season, ZT-DSR provided yields similar to or higher than those of PTR in the first three years and lower (11-30%) in Years 4 and 5, a result that provides a note of caution for interpreting technology performance through short-term trials or simply averaging results over several years. The resource use and economic and environmental advantages of DSR were more stable through time, including reductions in irrigation water (22-40%), production cost (11-17%), energy inputs (13-34%), and total GWP (14-32%). The integration of "best practices" in PTR in Scenario 2 resulted in reductions of 24% in irrigation water and 21% in GWP, with a positive impact on yield (0.9 t/ha) and profitability compared to conventional PTR, demonstrating the power of simple management changes to generate improved SI outcomes. When ZT maize was used as a diversification option instead of rice in Scenario 4, reductions in resource use jumped to 82-89% for irrigation water and 49-66% for energy inputs, with 13-40% lower GWP, similar or higher rice equivalent yield, and higher profitability (27-73%) in comparison to the rice-based scenarios. Despite these advantages, maize value chains are not robust in this part of India and public procurement is absent. Results do demonstrate that transformative opportunities exist to break the cycle of stagnating yields and inefficient resource use in the most productive cereal-based cropping systems of South Asia. However, these SI entry points need to be placed in the context of the major drivers of change in the region, including market conditions, risks, and declining labor availability, and matching with the needs and interests of different types of farmers.

Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2016-01-01

Introduction External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. Methods We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. Results The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. Conclusion The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients. PMID:26881753

Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

PubMed

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-01-01

External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

2017-01-01

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes

PubMed Central

Levy, David T; Borland, Ron; Lindblom, Eric N; Goniewicz, Maciej L; Meza, Rafael; Holford, Theodore R; Yuan, Zhe; Luo, Yuying; O’Connor, Richard J; Niaura, Raymond; Abrams, David B

2018-01-01

Introduction US tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use (‘vaping’) in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress. Methods A Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts. Findings Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016. Conclusions The tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm. PMID:28970328

The impact of municipal solid waste treatment methods on greenhouse gas emissions in Lahore, Pakistan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Batool, Syeda Adila; Chuadhry, Muhammad Nawaz

2009-01-15

The contribution of existing municipal solid waste management to emission of greenhouse gases and the alternative scenarios to reduce emissions were analyzed for Data Ganj Bukhsh Town (DGBT) in Lahore, Pakistan using the life cycle assessment methodology. DGBT has a population of 1,624,169 people living in 232,024 dwellings. Total waste generated is 500,000 tons per year with an average per capita rate of 0.84 kg per day. Alternative scenarios were developed and evaluated according to the environmental, economic, and social atmosphere of the study area. Solid waste management options considered include the collection and transportation of waste, collection of recyclablesmore » with single and mixed material bank container systems (SMBCS, MMBCS), material recovery facilities (MRF), composting, biogasification and landfilling. A life cycle inventory (LCI) of the six scenarios along with the baseline scenario was completed; this helped to quantify the CO{sub 2} equivalents, emitted and avoided, for energy consumption, production, fuel consumption, and methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions. LCI results showed that the contribution of the baseline scenario to the global warming potential as CO{sub 2} equivalents was a maximum of 838,116 tons. The sixth scenario had a maximum reduction of GHG emissions in terms of CO{sub 2} equivalents of -33,773 tons, but the most workable scenario for the current situation in the study area is scenario 5. It saves 25% in CO{sub 2} equivalents compared to the baseline scenario.« less

Generation of a modeling and simulation system for a semi-closed plant growth chamber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackwell, A. L.; Maa, S.; Kliss, M.; Blackwell, C. C.

1993-01-01

The fluid and thermal dynamics of the environment of plants in a small controlled-environment system have been modeled. The results of the simulation under two scenarios have been compared to measurements taken during tests on the actual system. The motivation for the modeling effort and the status of the modeling exercise and system scenario studies are described. An evaluation of the model and a discussion of future studies are included.

Virtual screening applications: a study of ligand-based methods and different structure representations in four different scenarios.

PubMed

Hristozov, Dimitar P; Oprea, Tudor I; Gasteiger, Johann

2007-01-01

Four different ligand-based virtual screening scenarios are studied: (1) prioritizing compounds for subsequent high-throughput screening (HTS); (2) selecting a predefined (small) number of potentially active compounds from a large chemical database; (3) assessing the probability that a given structure will exhibit a given activity; (4) selecting the most active structure(s) for a biological assay. Each of the four scenarios is exemplified by performing retrospective ligand-based virtual screening for eight different biological targets using two large databases--MDDR and WOMBAT. A comparison between the chemical spaces covered by these two databases is presented. The performance of two techniques for ligand--based virtual screening--similarity search with subsequent data fusion (SSDF) and novelty detection with Self-Organizing Maps (ndSOM) is investigated. Three different structure representations--2,048-dimensional Daylight fingerprints, topological autocorrelation weighted by atomic physicochemical properties (sigma electronegativity, polarizability, partial charge, and identity) and radial distribution functions weighted by the same atomic physicochemical properties--are compared. Both methods were found applicable in scenario one. The similarity search was found to perform slightly better in scenario two while the SOM novelty detection is preferred in scenario three. No method/descriptor combination achieved significant success in scenario four.

Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

1988-01-01

In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline), (2) standalone expert systems, (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS), and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

Artificial intelligence costs, benefits, and risks for selected spacecraft ground system automation scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truszkowski, Walter F.; Silverman, Barry G.; Kahn, Martha; Hexmoor, Henry

1988-01-01

In response to a number of high-level strategy studies in the early 1980s, expert systems and artificial intelligence (AI/ES) efforts for spacecraft ground systems have proliferated in the past several years primarily as individual small to medium scale applications. It is useful to stop and assess the impact of this technology in view of lessons learned to date, and hopefully, to determine if the overall strategies of some of the earlier studies both are being followed and still seem relevant. To achieve that end four idealized ground system automation scenarios and their attendant AI architecture are postulated and benefits, risks, and lessons learned are examined and compared. These architectures encompass: (1) no AI (baseline); (2) standalone expert systems; (3) standardized, reusable knowledge base management systems (KBMS); and (4) a futuristic unattended automation scenario. The resulting artificial intelligence lessons learned, benefits, and risks for spacecraft ground system automation scenarios are described.

Evaluation of a filmed clinical scenario as a teaching resource for an introductory pharmacology unit for undergraduate health students: A pilot study.

PubMed

East, Leah; Hutchinson, Marie

2015-12-01

Simulation is frequently being used as a learning and teaching resource for both undergraduate and postgraduate students, however reporting of the effectiveness of simulation particularly within the pharmacology context is scant. The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate a filmed simulated pharmacological clinical scenario as a teaching resource in an undergraduate pharmacological unit. Pilot cross-sectional quantitative survey. An Australian university. 32 undergraduate students completing a healthcare degree including nursing, midwifery, clinical science, health science, naturopathy, and osteopathy. As a part of an undergraduate online pharmacology unit, students were required to watch a filmed simulated pharmacological clinical scenario. To evaluate student learning, a measurement instrument developed from Bloom's cognitive domains (knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis and evaluation) was employed to assess pharmacological knowledge conceptualisation and knowledge application within the following fields: medication errors; medication adverse effects; medication interactions; and, general pharmacology. The majority of participants were enrolled in an undergraduate nursing or midwifery programme (72%). Results demonstrated that the majority of nursing and midwifery students (56.52%) found the teaching resource complementary or more useful compared to a lecture although less so compared to a tutorial. Students' self-assessment of learning according to Bloom's cognitive domains indicated that the filmed scenario was a valuable learning tool. Analysis of variance indicated that health science students reported higher levels of learning compared to midwifery and nursing. Students' self-report of the learning benefits of a filmed simulated clinical scenario as a teaching resource suggest enhanced critical thinking skills and knowledge conceptualisation regarding pharmacology, in addition to being useful and complementary to other teaching and learning methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of air pollutants from surface transport sources on human health: A modeling and epidemiological approach.

PubMed

Aggarwal, Preeti; Jain, Suresh

2015-10-01

This study adopted an integrated 'source-to-receptor' assessment paradigm in order to determine the effects of emissions from passenger transport on urban air quality and human health in the megacity, Delhi. The emission modeling was carried out for the base year 2007 and three alternate (ALT) policy scenarios along with a business as usual (BAU) scenario for the year 2021. An Activity-Structure-Emission Factor (ASF) framework was adapted for emission modeling, followed by a grid-wise air quality assessment using AERMOD and a health impact assessment using an epidemiological approach. It was observed that a 2021-ALT-III scenario resulted in a maximum concentration reduction of ~24%, ~42% and ~58% for carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM), respectively, compared to a 2021-BAU scenario. Further, it results in significant reductions in respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, morbidity and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) by 41% and 58% on exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations when compared to the 2021-BAU scenario, respectively. In other words, a mix of proposed policy interventions namely the full-phased introduction of the Integrated Mass Transit System, fixed bus speed, stringent vehicle emission norms and a hike in parking fees for private vehicles would help in strengthening the capability of passenger transport to cater to a growing transport demand with a minimum health burden in the Delhi region. Further, the study estimated that the transport of goods would be responsible for ~5.5% additional VKT in the 2021-BAU scenario; however, it will contribute ~49% and ~55% additional NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations, respectively, in the Delhi region. Implementation of diesel particulate filters for goods vehicles in the 2021-ALT-IV-O scenario would help in the reduction of ~87% of PM2.5 concentration, compared to the 2021-BAU scenario; translating into a gain of 1267 and 505 DALY per million people from exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations, respectively. These findings suggest that significant health benefits are possible if goods transport is also included while designing strategies and policies in order to improve the overall urban air quality and minimize health impacts in city areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

DOE PAGES

Woodruff, David L.; Deride, Julio; Staid, Andrea; ...

2017-12-22

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions.more » Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.« less

Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil.

PubMed

Scovronick, Noah; França, Daniela; Alonso, Marcelo; Almeida, Claudia; Longo, Karla; Freitas, Saulo; Rudorff, Bernardo; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-07-11

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil's high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m³ and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline.

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodruff, David L.; Deride, Julio; Staid, Andrea

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions.more » Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.« less

Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Cousins, Ian T

2014-09-01

The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil

PubMed Central

Scovronick, Noah; França, Daniela; Alonso, Marcelo; Almeida, Claudia; Longo, Karla; Freitas, Saulo; Rudorff, Bernardo; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-01-01

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil’s high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m3 and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline. PMID:27409628

Accretion onto CO White Dwarfs using MESA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Wanda; Starrfield, Sumner

2018-06-01

The nature of type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) progenitor systems and their underlying mechanism are not well understood. There are two competing progenitor scenarios: the single-degenerate scenario wherein a white dwarf (WD) star accretes material from a companion star, reaching the Chandrasekhar mass limit; and, the double-degenerate scenario wherein two WDs merge. In this study, we investigate the single-degenerate scenario by accretion onto carbon-oxygen (CO) WDs using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). We vary the WD mass, composition of the accreting material, and accretion rate in our models. Mixing between the accreted material and the WD core is informed by multidimensional studies that suggest occurance after thermonuclear runaway (TNR) ensues. We compare the accretion of solar composition material onto CO WDs with the accretion of mixed solar and core material after TNR. As many of our models eject less material than accreted, our study supports that accretion onto CO WDs is a feasible channel for SNe I progenitors.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of guidelines for antihypertensive care in Finland

PubMed Central

Booth, Neill; Jula, Antti; Aronen, Pasi; Kaila, Minna; Klaukka, Timo; Kukkonen-Harjula, Katriina; Reunanen, Antti; Rissanen, Pekka; Sintonen, Harri; Mäkelä, Marjukka

2007-01-01

Background Hypertension is one of the major causes of disease burden affecting the Finnish population. Over the last decade, evidence-based care has emerged to complement other approaches to antihypertensive care, often without health economic assessment of its costs and effects. This study looks at the extent to which changes proposed by the 2002 Finnish evidence-based Current Care Guidelines concerning the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of hypertension (the ACCG scenario) can be considered cost-effective when compared to modelled prior clinical practice (the PCP scenario). Methods A decision analytic model compares the ACCG and PCP scenarios using information synthesised from a set of national registers covering prescription drug reimbursements, morbidity, and mortality with data from two national surveys concerning health and functional capacity. Statistical methods are used to estimate model parameters from Finnish data. We model the potential impact of the different treatment strategies under the ACCG and PCP scenarios, such as lifestyle counselling and drug therapy, for subgroups stratified by age, gender, and blood pressure. The model provides estimates of the differences in major health-related outcomes in the form of life-years and costs as calculated from a 'public health care system' perspective. Cost-effectiveness analysis results are presented for subgroups and for the target population as a whole. Results The impact of the use of the ACCG scenario in subgroups (aged 40–80) without concomitant cardiovascular and related diseases is mainly positive. Generally, costs and life-years decrease in unison in the lowest blood pressure group, while in the highest blood pressure group costs and life-years increase together and in the other groups the ACCG scenario is less expensive and produces more life-years. When the costs and effects for subgroups are combined using standard decision analytic aggregation methods, the ACCG scenario is cost-saving and more effective. Conclusion The ACCG scenario is likely to reduce costs and increase life-years compared to the PCP scenario in many subgroups. If the estimated trade-offs between the subgroups in terms of outcomes and costs are acceptable to decision-makers, then widespread implementation of the ACCG scenario is expected to reduce overall costs and be accompanied by positive outcomes overall. PMID:17958883

Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

2015-12-01

The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to predict the 10-year impacts of the introduction of pictorial warning labels (PWLs) on cigarette packaging in 2016 in Korea for adults using DYNAMO-HIA. Methods In total, four scenarios were constructed to better understand the potential health impacts of PWLs: two for PWLs and the other two for a hypothetical cigarette tax increase. In both policies, an optimistic and a conservative scenario were constructed. The reference scenario assumed the 2015 smoking rate would remain the same. Demographic data and epidemiological data were obtained from various sources. Differences in the predicted smoking prevalence and prevalence, incidence, and mortality from diseases were compared between the reference scenario and the four policy scenarios. Results It was predicted that the optimistic PWLs scenario (PWO) would lower the smoking rate by 4.79% in males and 0.66% in females compared to the reference scenario in 2017. However, the impact on the reduction of the smoking rate was expected to diminish over time. PWO will prevent 85 238 cases of diabetes, 67 948 of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 31 526 of ischemic heart disease, 21 036 of lung cancer, and 3972 prevalent cases of oral cancer in total over the 10-year span due to the reductions in smoking prevalence. The impacts of PWO are expected to be between the impact of the optimistic and the conservative cigarette tax increase scenarios. The results were sensitive to the transition probability of smoking status. Conclusions The introduction of PWLs in 2016 in Korea is expected reduce smoking prevalence and disease cases for the next 10 years, but regular replacements of PWLs are needed for persistent impacts. PMID:28768403

Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA.

PubMed

Kang, Eunjeong

2017-07-01

This study aimed to predict the 10-year impacts of the introduction of pictorial warning labels (PWLs) on cigarette packaging in 2016 in Korea for adults using DYNAMO-HIA. In total, four scenarios were constructed to better understand the potential health impacts of PWLs: two for PWLs and the other two for a hypothetical cigarette tax increase. In both policies, an optimistic and a conservative scenario were constructed. The reference scenario assumed the 2015 smoking rate would remain the same. Demographic data and epidemiological data were obtained from various sources. Differences in the predicted smoking prevalence and prevalence, incidence, and mortality from diseases were compared between the reference scenario and the four policy scenarios. It was predicted that the optimistic PWLs scenario (PWO) would lower the smoking rate by 4.79% in males and 0.66% in females compared to the reference scenario in 2017. However, the impact on the reduction of the smoking rate was expected to diminish over time. PWO will prevent 85 238 cases of diabetes, 67 948 of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 31 526 of ischemic heart disease, 21 036 of lung cancer, and 3972 prevalent cases of oral cancer in total over the 10-year span due to the reductions in smoking prevalence. The impacts of PWO are expected to be between the impact of the optimistic and the conservative cigarette tax increase scenarios. The results were sensitive to the transition probability of smoking status. The introduction of PWLs in 2016 in Korea is expected reduce smoking prevalence and disease cases for the next 10 years, but regular replacements of PWLs are needed for persistent impacts.

Fixed versus variable practice for teaching medical students the management of pediatric asthma exacerbations using simulation.

PubMed

Drummond, David; Truchot, Jennifer; Fabbro, Eleonora; Ceccaldi, Pierre-François; Plaisance, Patrick; Tesnière, Antoine; Hadchouel, Alice

2018-02-01

Simulation-based trainings represent an interesting approach to teach medical students the management of pediatric asthma exacerbations (PAEs). In this study, we compared two pedagogical approaches, training students once on three different scenarios of PAEs versus training students three times on the same scenario of PAE. Eighty-five third-year medical students, novice learners for the management of PAEs, were randomized and trained. Students were assessed twice, 1 week and 4 months after the training, on a scenario of PAE new to both groups and on scenarios used during the training. The main outcome was the performance score on the new scenario of PAE at 1 week, assessed on a checklist custom-designed for the study. All students progressed rapidly and acquired excellent skills. One week after the training, there was no difference between the two groups on all the scenarios tested, including the new scenario of PAE (median performance score (IQR) of 8.3 (7.4-10.0) in the variation group versus 8.0 (6.0-10.0) in the repetition group (p = 0.16)). Four months later, the performance of the two groups remained similar. Varying practice with different scenarios was equivalent to repetitive practice on the same scenario for novice learners, with both methods leading to transfer and long-term retention of the skills acquired during the training. What is known: • Simulation-based trainings represent an interesting approach to teach medical students the management of pediatric asthma exacerbations. • It is unclear whether students would benefit more from repetitive practice on the same scenario of asthma exacerbation or from practice on different scenarios in terms of transfer of skills. What is new: • An individual 30-min training on the management of pediatric asthma exacerbations using simulation allows transfer and long-term retention of the skills acquired. • Varying practice with different scenarios is equivalent to repetitive practice on the same scenario in terms of transfer of skills.

A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century.

PubMed

Likhvar, Victoria N; Pascal, Mathilde; Markakis, Konstantinos; Colette, Augustin; Hauglustaine, Didier; Valari, Myrto; Klimont, Zbigniew; Medina, Sylvia; Kinney, Patrick

2015-05-01

Ozone and PM₂.₅ are current risk factors for premature death all over the globe. In coming decades, substantial improvements in public health may be achieved by reducing air pollution. To better understand the potential of emissions policies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. We used consistent climate-air-quality-health modeling framework across three geographical scales (World, Europe and Ile-de-France) to assess future (2030-2050) health impacts of ozone and PM₂.₅ under two emissions scenarios (Current Legislation Emissions, CLE, and Maximum Feasible Reductions, MFR). Consistently across the scales, we found more reductions in deaths under MFR scenario compared to CLE. 1.5 [95% CI: 0.4, 2.4] million CV deaths could be delayed each year in 2030 compared to 2010 under MFR scenario, 84% of which would occur in Asia, especially in China. In Europe, the benefits under MFR scenario (219000 CV deaths) are noticeably larger than those under CLE (109,000 CV deaths). In Ile-de-France, under MFR more than 2830 annual CV deaths associated with PM₂.₅ changes could be delayed in 2050 compared to 2010. In Paris, ozone-related respiratory mortality should increase under both scenarios. Multi-scale HIAs can illustrate the difference in direct consequences of costly mitigation policies and provide results that may help decision-makers choose between different policy alternatives at different scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Watershed-scale impacts of bioenergy crops on hydrology and water quality using improved SWAT model

DOE PAGES

Cibin, Raj; Trybula, Elizabeth; Chaubey, Indrajeet; ...

2016-01-08

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstock such as perennial grasses and crop residues are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. Here, we used an improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to forecast impacts on watershed hydrology and water quality by implementing an array of plausible land-use changes associated with commercial bioenergy crop production for two watersheds in the Midwest USA. Watershed-scale impacts were estimated for 13 bioenergy crop production scenarios, including: production of Miscanthus 9 giganteus and upland Shawnee switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas and pastures, removal ofmore » corn stover and combinations of these options. We also measured water quality as erosion and sediment loading; this was forecasted to improve compared to baseline when perennial grasses were used for bioenergy production, but not with stover removal scenarios. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced between 0 and 8% across these bioenergy crop production scenarios compared to baseline across the study watersheds. Our results indicate that bioenergy production scenarios that incorporate perennial grasses reduced the nonpoint source pollutant load at the watershed outlet compared to the baseline conditions (0–20% for nitrate-nitrogen and 3–56% for mineral phosphorus); but, the reduction rates were specific to site characteristics and management practices.« less

Cost-effectiveness of possible future smoking cessation strategies in Hungary: results from the EQUIPTMOD.

PubMed

Németh, Bertalan; Józwiak-Hagymásy, Judit; Kovács, Gábor; Kovács, Attila; Demjén, Tibor; Huber, Manuel B; Cheung, Kei-Long; Coyle, Kathryn; Lester-George, Adam; Pokhrel, Subhash; Vokó, Zoltán

2018-01-25

To evaluate potential health and economic returns from implementing smoking cessation interventions in Hungary. The EQUIPTMOD, a Markov-based economic model, was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of three implementation scenarios: (a) introducing a social marketing campaign; (b) doubling the reach of existing group-based behavioural support therapies and proactive telephone support; and (c) a combination of the two scenarios. All three scenarios were compared with current practice. The scenarios were chosen as feasible options available for Hungary based on the outcome of interviews with local stakeholders. Life-time costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated from a health-care perspective. The analyses used various return on investment (ROI) estimates, including incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), to compare the scenarios. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses assessed the extent to which the estimated mean ICERs were sensitive to the model input values. Introducing a social marketing campaign resulted in an increase of 0.3014 additional quitters per 1 000 smokers, translating to health-care cost-savings of €0.6495 per smoker compared with current practice. When the value of QALY gains was considered, cost-savings increased to €14.1598 per smoker. Doubling the reach of existing group-based behavioural support therapies and proactive telephone support resulted in health-care savings of €0.2539 per smoker (€3.9620 with the value of QALY gains), compared with current practice. The respective figures for the combined scenario were €0.8960 and €18.0062. Results were sensitive to model input values. According to the EQUIPTMOD modelling tool, it would be cost-effective for the Hungarian authorities introduce a social marketing campaign and double the reach of existing group-based behavioural support therapies and proactive telephone support. Such policies would more than pay for themselves in the long term. © 2018 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

Effects of Role-Playing Scenarios on the Self-efficacy of Students in Resisting Against Substance Addiction: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Karatay, Gülnaz; Gürarslan Baş, Nazan

2017-01-01

During the first phases of adolescent development, young people have little self-efficacy and resistance against substance use. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the effectiveness of role-playing scenarios on the self-efficacy of students in resisting substance use. A pre test and post test study design was used with a single group. The study was carried out with 245 secondary school students. The scenario-based training, developed by the researchers, was presented by the school counselors once a week for 4 weeks. For this purpose, a booklet of scenarios was prepared for the teachers. The role-playing scenarios were intended to improve adolescents' abilities to say "no" to substance offers, to prevent them from becoming addicted to certain substances, and to call for help if needed. The data of the study were collected using the Personal Information Form and the Self-Efficacy for Adolescences Protecting Substance Abuse Scale . The obtained data were assessed using percentages, chi-square, t test, and F test in the SPSS software. Results showed that, after the training, the mean score in the Self-Efficacy for Adolescences Protecting Substance Abuse Scale increased significantly (103.20 ± 20.00) compared with before the training (92.11 ± 17.08) ( P < .05). Short-term outcomes of the class-based scenario training were observed to be effective in the development of students' self-efficacy to resist the temptations of substance use.

Ambiguity and judgments of obese individuals: no news could be bad news.

PubMed

Ross, Kathryn M; Shivy, Victoria A; Mazzeo, Suzanne E

2009-08-01

Stigmatization towards obese individuals has not decreased despite the increasing prevalence of obesity. Nonetheless, stigmatization remains difficult to study, given concerns about social desirability. To address this issue, this study used paired comparisons and cluster analysis to examine how undergraduates (n=189) categorized scenarios describing the health-related behaviors of obese individuals. The cluster analysis found that the scenarios were categorized into two distinct clusters. The first cluster included all scenarios with health behaviors indicating high responsibility for body weight. These individuals were perceived as unattractive, lazy, less likeable, less disciplined, and more deserving of their condition compared to individuals in the second cluster, which included all scenarios with health behaviors indicating low responsibility for body weight. Four scenarios depicted obese individuals with ambiguous information regarding health behaviors; three out of these four individuals were categorized in the high-responsibility cluster. These findings suggested that participants viewed these individuals as negatively as those who were responsible for their condition. These results have practical implications for reducing obesity bias, as the etiology of obesity is typically not known in real-life situations.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Spanish Renal Replacement Therapy Program

PubMed Central

Villa, Guillermo; Fernández–Ortiz, Lucía; Cuervo, Jesús; Rebollo, Pablo; Selgas, Rafael; González, Teresa; Arrieta, Javier

2012-01-01

♦ Background: We undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis of the Spanish Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT) program for end-stage renal disease patients from a societal perspective. The current Spanish situation was compared with several hypothetical scenarios. ♦ Methods: A Markov chain model was used as a foundation for simulations of the Spanish RRT program in three temporal horizons (5, 10, and 15 years). The current situation (scenario 1) was compared with three different scenarios: increased proportion of overall scheduled (planned) incident patients (scenario 2); constant proportion of overall scheduled incident patients, but increased proportion of scheduled incident patients on peritoneal dialysis (PD), resulting in a lower proportion of scheduled incident patients on hemodialysis (HD) (scenario 3); and increased overall proportion of scheduled incident patients together with increased scheduled incidence of patients on PD (scenario 4). ♦ Results: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of scenarios 2, 3, and 4, when compared with scenario 1, were estimated to be, respectively, –€83 150, –€354 977, and –€235 886 per incremental quality-adjusted life year (ΔQALY), evidencing both moderate cost savings and slight effectiveness gains. The net health benefits that would accrue to society were estimated to be, respectively, 0.0045, 0.0211, and 0.0219 ΔQALYs considering a willingness-to-pay threshold of €35 000/ΔQALY. ♦ Conclusions: Scenario 1, the current Spanish situation, was dominated by all the proposed scenarios. Interestingly, scenarios 3 and 4 showed the best results in terms of cost-effectiveness. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, an increase in the overall scheduled incidence of RRT, and particularly that of PD, should be promoted. PMID:21965620

Quantifying policy options for reducing future coronary heart disease mortality in England: a modelling study.

PubMed

Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O'Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind

2013-01-01

To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies.

Quantifying Policy Options for Reducing Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England: A Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O’Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind

2013-01-01

Aims To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Methods and Results Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. Conclusions CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies. PMID:23936122

Uncertainty in training image-based inversion of hydraulic head data constrained to ERT data: Workflow and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermans, Thomas; Nguyen, Frédéric; Caers, Jef

2015-07-01

In inverse problems, investigating uncertainty in the posterior distribution of model parameters is as important as matching data. In recent years, most efforts have focused on techniques to sample the posterior distribution with reasonable computational costs. Within a Bayesian context, this posterior depends on the prior distribution. However, most of the studies ignore modeling the prior with realistic geological uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a workflow inspired by a Popper-Bayes philosophy that data should first be used to falsify models, then only be considered for matching. We propose a workflow consisting of three steps: (1) in defining the prior, we interpret multiple alternative geological scenarios from literature (architecture of facies) and site-specific data (proportions of facies). Prior spatial uncertainty is modeled using multiple-point geostatistics, where each scenario is defined using a training image. (2) We validate these prior geological scenarios by simulating electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data on realizations of each scenario and comparing them to field ERT in a lower dimensional space. In this second step, the idea is to probabilistically falsify scenarios with ERT, meaning that scenarios which are incompatible receive an updated probability of zero while compatible scenarios receive a nonzero updated belief. (3) We constrain the hydrogeological model with hydraulic head and ERT using a stochastic search method. The workflow is applied to a synthetic and a field case studies in an alluvial aquifer. This study highlights the importance of considering and estimating prior uncertainty (without data) through a process of probabilistic falsification.

The admixture maximum likelihood test to test for association between rare variants and disease phenotypes.

PubMed

Tyrer, Jonathan P; Guo, Qi; Easton, Douglas F; Pharoah, Paul D P

2013-06-06

The development of genotyping arrays containing hundreds of thousands of rare variants across the genome and advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have made feasible empirical genetic association studies to search for rare disease susceptibility alleles. As single variant testing is underpowered to detect associations, the development of statistical methods to combine analysis across variants - so-called "burden tests" - is an area of active research interest. We previously developed a method, the admixture maximum likelihood test, to test multiple, common variants for association with a trait of interest. We have extended this method, called the rare admixture maximum likelihood test (RAML), for the analysis of rare variants. In this paper we compare the performance of RAML with six other burden tests designed to test for association of rare variants. We used simulation testing over a range of scenarios to test the power of RAML compared to the other rare variant association testing methods. These scenarios modelled differences in effect variability, the average direction of effect and the proportion of associated variants. We evaluated the power for all the different scenarios. RAML tended to have the greatest power for most scenarios where the proportion of associated variants was small, whereas SKAT-O performed a little better for the scenarios with a higher proportion of associated variants. The RAML method makes no assumptions about the proportion of variants that are associated with the phenotype of interest or the magnitude and direction of their effect. The method is flexible and can be applied to both dichotomous and quantitative traits and allows for the inclusion of covariates in the underlying regression model. The RAML method performed well compared to the other methods over a wide range of scenarios. Generally power was moderate in most of the scenarios, underlying the need for large sample sizes in any form of association testing.

Comparison of teen and adult driver crash scenarios in a nationally representative sample of serious crashes.

PubMed

McDonald, Catherine C; Curry, Allison E; Kandadai, Venk; Sommers, Marilyn S; Winston, Flaura K

2014-11-01

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death and acquired disability during the first four decades of life. While teen drivers have the highest crash risk, few studies examine the similarities and differences in teen and adult driver crashes. We aimed to: (1) identify and compare the most frequent crash scenarios-integrated information on a vehicle's movement prior to crash, immediate pre-crash event, and crash configuration-for teen and adult drivers involved in serious crashes, and (2) for the most frequent scenarios, explore whether the distribution of driver critical errors differed for teens and adult drivers. We analyzed data from the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey, a nationally representative study of serious crashes conducted by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from 2005 to 2007. Our sample included 642 16- to 19-year-old and 1167 35- to 54-year-old crash-involved drivers (weighted n=296,482 and 439,356, respectively) who made a critical error that led to their crash's critical pre-crash event (i.e., event that made the crash inevitable). We estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare the relative frequency of crash scenarios and driver critical errors. The top five crash scenarios among teen drivers, accounting for 37.3% of their crashes, included: (1) going straight, other vehicle stopped, rear end; (2) stopped in traffic lane, turning left at intersection, turn into path of other vehicle; (3) negotiating curve, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; (4) going straight, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; and (5) stopped in lane, turning left at intersection, turn across path of other vehicle. The top five crash scenarios among adult drivers, accounting for 33.9% of their crashes, included the same scenarios as the teen drivers with the exception of scenario (3) and the addition of going straight, crossing over an intersection, and continuing on a straight path. For two scenarios ((1) and (3) above), teens were more likely than adults to make a critical decision error (e.g., traveling too fast for conditions). Our findings indicate that among those who make a driver critical error in a serious crash, there are few differences in the scenarios or critical driver errors for teen and adult drivers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

PubMed

Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

2017-04-15

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Transfer of bacteriophage MS2 and fluorescein from N95 filtering facepiece respirators to hands: Measuring fomite potential

PubMed Central

Brady, Tyler M.; Strauch, Amanda L.; Almaguer, Claudia M.; Niezgoda, George; Shafer, Ronald E.; Yorio, Patrick L.; Fisher, Edward M.

2017-01-01

Contact transmission of pathogens from personal protective equipment is a concern within the healthcare industry. During public health emergency outbreaks, resources become constrained and the reuse of personal protective equipment, such as N95 filtering facepiece respirators, may be needed. This study was designed to characterize the transfer of bacteriophage MS2 and fluorescein between filtering facepiece respirators and the wearer’s hands during three simulated use scenarios. Filtering facepiece respirators were contaminated with MS2 and fluorescein in droplets or droplet nuclei. Thirteen test subjects performed filtering facepiece respirator use scenarios including improper doffing, proper doffing and reuse, and improper doffing and reuse. Fluorescein and MS2 contamination transfer were quantified. The average MS2 transfer from filtering facepiece respirators to the subjects’ hands ranged from 7.6–15.4% and 2.2–2.7% for droplet and droplet nuclei derived contamination, respectively. Handling filtering facepiece respirators contaminated with droplets resulted in higher levels of MS2 transfer compared to droplet nuclei for all use scenarios (p = 0.007). MS2 transfer from droplet contaminated filtering facepiece respirators during improper doffing and reuse was greater than transfer during improper doffing (p = 0.008) and proper doffing and reuse (p = 0.042). Droplet contamination resulted in higher levels of fluorescein transfer compared to droplet nuclei contaminated filtering facepiece respirators for all use scenarios (p = 0.009). Fluorescein transfer was greater for improper doffing and reuse (p = 0.007) from droplet contaminated masks compared to droplet nuclei contaminated filtering facepiece respirators and for improper doffing and reuse when compared improper doffing (p = 0.017) and proper doffing and reuse (p = 0.018) for droplet contaminated filtering facepiece respirators. For droplet nuclei contaminated filtering facepiece respirators, the difference in MS2 and fluorescein transfer did not reach statistical significance when comparing any of the use scenarios. The findings suggest that the results of fluorescein and MS2 transfer were consistent and highly correlated across the conditions of study. The data supports CDC recommendations for using proper doffing techniques and discarding filtering facepiece respirators that are directly contaminated with secretions from a cough or sneeze. PMID:28650715

Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes.

PubMed

Levy, David T; Borland, Ron; Lindblom, Eric N; Goniewicz, Maciej L; Meza, Rafael; Holford, Theodore R; Yuan, Zhe; Luo, Yuying; O'Connor, Richard J; Niaura, Raymond; Abrams, David B

2018-01-01

US tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use ('vaping') in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress. A Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts. Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016. The tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Estimated health impact of a shift from light fuel to residential wood-burning in Upper Austria.

PubMed

Haluza, Daniela; Kaiser, August; Moshammer, Hanns; Flandorfer, Claudia; Kundi, Michael; Neuberger, Manfred

2012-07-01

The dependency on carbon-based fossil energy and growing awareness of climate change issues has induced ambitious policy initiatives to promote renewable energy sources for indoor heating. Combustion of regionally available material such as wood is considered a carbon-neutral alternative for oil and gas, but unregulated revival of wood stoves may cause detrimental health effects. For the prognosis of the health impact of air pollution due to the use of wood stoves, Upper Austria served for a case study. On the basis of recent measurements of particulate matter <10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and nitrous gases (NO(x)), we compared the air pollution attributable to present energy mix (termed scenario 1) with two alternatives: For scenario 2, we assumed replacement of light fuel oil by either fossil gas or biomass, and for scenario 3, replacement of light fuel oil by biomass only. Compared with the current exposure from scenario 1, the increased annual mean PM10 levels are estimated to lead to 101 (95% CI 56;146) and 174 (95% CI 92;257) additional deaths among 1.4 million inhabitants per year for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Without adequate strategies for reducing the emissions of domestic heating facilities, replacement of fossil energy sources could lead to an increased health risk.

Projected Heat Wave Characteristics over the Korean Peninsula During the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Jongsoo; Olson, Roman; An, Soon-Il

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles have been constructed using both simple and weighted averaging. Results from both methods are similar and show that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.

Expanding the Role of Maryland Community Colleges in K-12 Teacher Preparation: Benefits and Costs of Implementing the Associate of Arts in Teaching (AAT) Degree

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frank, Jennifer Vest

2012-01-01

This study uses benefit-cost analysis to compare three alternative scenarios for implementing the Associate of Arts in Teaching (AAT) degree in Maryland community colleges. The first policy scenario is that community colleges retain their traditional role in K-12 teacher preparation by providing lower-division transfer courses and programs for…

An Exploration of Kernel Equating Using SAT® Data: Equating to a Similar Population and to a Distant Population. Research Report. ETS RR-07-17

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Jinghua; Low, Albert C.

2007-01-01

This study applied kernel equating (KE) in two scenarios: equating to a very similar population and equating to a very different population, referred to as a distant population, using SAT® data. The KE results were compared to the results obtained from analogous classical equating methods in both scenarios. The results indicate that KE results are…

Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Sangchul; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Yeo, In-Young; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, W. Dean

2017-01-01

Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e.g., rye and early planting), due to warmer temperatures. According to simulation results, WCCs were effective to mitigate nitrate loads accelerated by FCCs and therefore the role of WCCs in mitigating nitrate loads is even more important in the given FCCs.

Economic Implications of Potential Changes to Regulatory and Reimbursement Policies for Medical Devices

PubMed Central

Reed, Shelby D.; Shea, Alisa M.

2007-01-01

Objective To evaluate the impact of regulatory scenarios on the financial viability of medical device companies. Design We developed a model to calculate the expected net present value of a hypothetical product throughout preclinical development, clinical testing, regulatory approval, and postmarketing. We tested 3 scenarios: (1) the current regulatory environment; (2) a scenario in which medical devices are subject to the same evidence standards required for pharmaceuticals; and (3) a scenario consistent with the Coverage with Evidence Development: Coverage with Study Participation (CSP) policy proposed by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, whereby Medicare will pay for beneficiaries to receive new devices that are not currently determined to be “reasonable and necessary” if the patients participate in clinical studies or registries. Measurements and Main results When applying assumptions consistent with the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator market, the net present value at the start of development was an estimated $553 million in the current regulatory environment, $322 million in the pharmaceutical scenario, and $403 million in the CSP scenario. Sensitivity analyses showed that the device industry would likely be profitable in all 3 scenarios over a range of assumptions. Conclusions The environment in which the medical device industry operates is financially attractive. Furthermore, when compared with the alternative of applying the same evidence standards for pharmaceuticals to medical devices, the CSP policy offers improved financial incentives for medical device companies. PMID:18095045

Life cycle environmental and economic implications of small drinking water system upgrades to reduce disinfection byproducts.

PubMed

Mo, Weiwei; Cornejo, Pablo K; Malley, James P; Kane, Tyler E; Collins, M Robin

2018-06-20

Many of the small drinking water systems in the US that utilize simple filtration and chlorine disinfection or chlorine disinfection alone are facing disinfection byproduct (DBP) noncompliance issues, which need immediate upgrades. In this study, four potential upgrade scenarios, namely the GAC, ozone, UV30, and UV186 scenarios, were designed for a typical small drinking water systems and compared in terms of embodied energy, carbon footprint, and life cycle cost. These scenarios are designed to either reduce the amount of DBP precursors using granular activated carbon filtration (the GAC scenario) or ozonation (the ozone scenario), or replace the chlorine disinfection with the UV disinfection at different intensities followed by chloramination (the UV30 and UV186 scenarios). The UV30 scenario was found to have the lowest embodied energy (417 GJ/year) and life cycle cost ($0.25 million US dollars), while the GAC scenario has the lowest carbon footprint (21 Mg CO 2 e/year). The UV186 scenario consistently presents the highest environmental and economic impacts. The major contributors of the economic and environmental impacts of individual scenarios also differ. Energy and/or material consumptions during the operation phase dominate the environmental impacts of the four scenarios, while the infrastructure investments have a noticeable contribution to the economic costs. The results are sensitive to changes in water quality. An increase of raw water quality, i.e., an increase in organic precursor content, could potentially result in the ozone scenario being the least energy intensive scenario, while a decrease of water quality could greatly reduce the overall competitiveness of the GAC scenario. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Stop-Only-While-Shocking algorithm reduces hands-off time by 17% during cardiopulmonary resuscitation - a simulation study.

PubMed

Koch Hansen, Lars; Mohammed, Anna; Pedersen, Magnus; Folkestad, Lars; Brodersen, Jacob; Hey, Thomas; Lyhne Christensen, Nicolaj; Carter-Storch, Rasmus; Bendix, Kristoffer; Hansen, Morten R; Brabrand, Mikkel

2016-12-01

Reducing hands-off time during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is believed to increase survival after cardiac arrests because of the sustaining of organ perfusion. The aim of our study was to investigate whether charging the defibrillator before rhythm analyses and shock delivery significantly reduced hands-off time compared with the European Resuscitation Council (ERC) 2010 CPR guideline algorithm in full-scale cardiac arrest scenarios. The study was designed as a full-scale cardiac arrest simulation study including administration of drugs. Participants were randomized into using the Stop-Only-While-Shocking (SOWS) algorithm or the ERC2010 algorithm. In SOWS, chest compressions were only interrupted for a post-charging rhythm analysis and immediate shock delivery. A Resusci Anne HLR-D manikin and a LIFEPACK 20 defibrillator were used. The manikin recorded time and chest compressions. Sample size was calculated with an α of 0.05 and 80% power showed that we should test four scenarios with each algorithm. Twenty-nine physicians participated in 11 scenarios. Hands-off time was significantly reduced 17% using the SOWS algorithm compared with ERC2010 [22.1% (SD 2.3) hands-off time vs. 26.6% (SD 4.8); P<0.05]. In full-scale cardiac arrest simulations, a minor change consisting of charging the defibrillator before rhythm check reduces hands-off time by 17% compared with ERC2010 guidelines.

Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease: a model comparison study.

PubMed

Roche, S E; Garner, M G; Sanson, R L; Cook, C; Birch, C; Backer, J A; Dube, C; Patyk, K A; Stevenson, M A; Yu, Z D; Rawdon, T G; Gauntlett, F

2015-04-01

Simulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with 'stamping-out' of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the 'stamping-out' strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.

Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

2018-04-01

Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

Noise pollution and annoyance: an urban soundscapes study.

PubMed

de Paiva Vianna, Karina Mary; Alves Cardoso, Maria Regina; Rodrigues, Rui Manuel Calejo

2015-01-01

Since 1972, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared noise as a pollutant. Over the last decades, the quality of the urban environment has attracted the interest of researchers due to the growing urban sprawl, especially in developing countries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of noise exposure in six urban soundscapes: Areas with high and low levels of noise in scenarios of leisure, work, and home. Cross-sectional study. The study was conducted in two steps: Evaluation of noise levels, with the development of noise maps, and health related inquiries. 180 individuals were interviewed, being 60 in each scenario, divided into 30 exposed to high level of noise and 30 to low level. Chi-Square test and Ordered Logistic Regression Model (P < 0,005). 70% of the interviewees reported noticing some source of noise in the selected scenarios and it was observed an association between exposure and perception of some source of noise (P < 0.001). 41.7% of the interviewees reported some degree of annoyance, being that this was associated with exposure (P < 0.001). There was also an association between exposure in different scenarios and reports of poor quality of sleep (P < 0.001). In the scenarios of work and home, the chance of reporting annoyance increased when compared with the scenario of leisure. We conclude that the use of this sort of assessment may clarify the relationship between urban noise exposure and health.

Noise pollution and annoyance: An urban soundscapes study

PubMed Central

de Paiva Vianna, Karina Mary; Alves Cardoso, Maria Regina; Rodrigues, Rui Manuel Calejo

2015-01-01

Since 1972, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared noise as a pollutant. Over the last decades, the quality of the urban environment has attracted the interest of researchers due to the growing urban sprawl, especially in developing countries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of noise exposure in six urban soundscapes: Areas with high and low levels of noise in scenarios of leisure, work, and home. Cross-sectional study. The study was conducted in two steps: Evaluation of noise levels, with the development of noise maps, and health related inquiries. 180 individuals were interviewed, being 60 in each scenario, divided into 30 exposed to high level of noise and 30 to low level. Chi-Square test and Ordered Logistic Regression Model (P < 0,005). 70% of the interviewees reported noticing some source of noise in the selected scenarios and it was observed an association between exposure and perception of some source of noise (P < 0.001). 41.7% of the interviewees reported some degree of annoyance, being that this was associated with exposure (P < 0.001). There was also an association between exposure in different scenarios and reports of poor quality of sleep (P < 0.001). In the scenarios of work and home, the chance of reporting annoyance increased when compared with the scenario of leisure. We conclude that the use of this sort of assessment may clarify the relationship between urban noise exposure and health. PMID:25913551

Energy crops on landfills: functional, environmental, and costs analysis of different landfill configurations.

PubMed

Pivato, Alberto; Garbo, Francesco; Moretto, Marco; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina

2018-02-09

The cultivation of energy crops on landfills represents an important challenge for the near future, as the possibility to use devalued sites for energy production is very attractive. In this study, four scenarios have been assessed and compared with respect to a reference case defined for northern Italy. The scenarios were defined taking into consideration current energy crops issues. In particular, the first three scenarios were based on energy maximisation, phytotreatment ability, and environmental impact, respectively. The fourth scenario was a combination of these characteristics emphasised by the previous scenarios. A multi-criteria analysis, based on economic, energetic, and environmental aspects, was performed. From the analysis, the best scenario resulted to be the fourth, with its ability to pursue several objectives simultaneously and obtain the best score relatively to both environmental and energetic criteria. On the contrary, the economic criterion emerges as weak, as all the considered scenarios showed some limits from this point of view. Important indications for future designs can be derived. The decrease of leachate production due to the presence of energy crops on the top cover, which enhances evapotranspiration, represents a favourable but critical aspect in the definition of the results.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Prospective time-resolved LCA of fully electric supercap vehicles in Germany.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Benedikt M; Dura, Hanna; Baumann, Manuel J; Weil, Marcel R

2015-07-01

The ongoing transition of the German electricity supply toward a higher share of renewable and sustainable energy sources, called Energiewende in German, has led to dynamic changes in the environmental impact of electricity over the last few years. Prominent scenario studies predict that comparable dynamics will continue in the coming decades, which will further improve the environmental performance of Germany's electricity supply. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is the methodology commonly used to evaluate environmental performance. Previous LCA studies on electric vehicles have shown that the electricity supply for the vehicles' operation is responsible for the major part of their environmental impact. The core question of this study is how the prospective dynamic development of the German electricity mix will affect the impact of electric vehicles operated in Germany and how LCA can be adapted to analyze this impact in a more robust manner. The previously suggested approach of time-resolved LCA, which is located between static and dynamic LCA, is used in this study and compared with several static approaches. Furthermore, the uncertainty issue associated with scenario studies is addressed in general and in relation to time-resolved LCA. Two scenario studies relevant to policy making have been selected, but a moderate number of modifications have been necessary to adapt the data to the requirements of a life cycle inventory. A potential, fully electric vehicle powered by a supercapacitor energy storage system is used as a generic example. The results show that substantial improvements in the environmental repercussions of the electricity supply and, consequentially, of electric vehicles will be achieved between 2020 and 2031 on the basis of the energy mixes predicted in both studies. This study concludes that although scenarios might not be able to predict the future, they should nonetheless be used as data sources in prospective LCA studies, because in many cases historic data appears to be unsuitable for providing realistic information on the future. The time-resolved LCA approach improves the assessment's robustness substantially, especially when nonlinear developments are foreseen in the future scenarios. This allows for a reduction of bias in LCA-based decision making. However, a deeper integration of time-resolved data in the life cycle inventory and the implementation of a more suitable software framework are desirable. The study describes how life cycle assessment's (LCA) robustness can be improved by respecting prospective fluctuations, like the transition of the German electricity mix, in the modeling of the life cycle inventory. It presents a feasible and rather simple process to add time-resolved data to LCA. The study selects 2 different future scenarios from important German studies and processes their data systematically to make them compatible with the requirements of a life cycle inventory. The use of external scenarios as basis for future-oriented LCA is reflected critically. A case study on electric mobility is presented and used to compare historic, prospective static, and prospective time-resolved electricity mix modeling approaches. The case study emphasizes the benefits of time-resolved LCA in direct comparison with the currently used approaches. © 2015 SETAC.

Cost-effectiveness of population-level expansion of highly active antiretroviral treatment for HIV in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study.

PubMed

Nosyk, Bohdan; Min, Jeong E; Lima, Viviane D; Hogg, Robert S; Montaner, Julio S G

2015-09-01

Widespread HIV screening and access to highly active antiretroviral treatment (ART) were cost effective in mathematical models, but population-level implementation has led to questions about cost, value, and feasibility. In 1996, British Columbia, Canada, introduced universal coverage of drug and other health-care costs for people with HIV/AIDS and and began extensive scale-up in access to ART. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of ART scale-up in British Columbia compared with hypothetical scenarios of constrained treatment access. Using comprehensive linked population-level data, we populated a dynamic, compartmental transmission model to simulate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in British Columbia from 1997 to 2010. We estimated HIV incidence, prevalence, mortality, costs (in 2010 CAN$), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for the study period, which was 1997-2010. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from societal and third-party-payer perspectives to compare actual practice (true numbers of individuals accessing ART) to scenarios of constrained expansion (75% and 50% probability of accessing ART). We also investigated structural and parameter uncertainty. Actual practice resulted in 263 averted incident cases compared with 75% of observed access and 676 averted cases compared with 50% of observed access to ART. From a third-party-payer perspective, actual practice resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $23 679 per QALY versus 75% access and $24 250 per QALY versus 50% access. From a societal perspective, actual practice was cost saving within the study period. When the model was extended to 2035, current observed access resulted in cumulative savings of $25·1 million compared with the 75% access scenario and $65·5 million compared with the 50% access scenario. ART scale-up in British Columbia has decreased HIV-related morbidity, mortality, and transmission. Resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for actual practice, derived within a limited timeframe, were within established cost-effectiveness thresholds and were cost saving from a societal perspective. BC Ministry of Health, National Institute of Drug Abuse at the US National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Estill, Janne; Egger, Matthias; Blaser, Nello; Vizcaya, Luisa Salazar; Garone, Daniela; Wood, Robin; Campbell, Jennifer; Hallett, Timothy B; Keiser, Olivia

2013-06-01

Monitoring of HIV viral load in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined the cost-effectiveness of qualitative point-of-care viral load tests (POC-VL) in sub-Saharan Africa. Mathematical model based on longitudinal data from the Gugulethu and Khayelitsha township ART programmes in Cape Town, South Africa. Cohorts of patients on ART monitored by POC-VL, CD4 cell count or clinically were simulated. Scenario A considered the more accurate detection of treatment failure with POC-VL only, and scenario B also considered the effect on HIV transmission. Scenario C further assumed that the risk of virologic failure is halved with POC-VL due to improved adherence. We estimated the change in costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, ICERs) of POC-VL compared with CD4 and clinical monitoring. POC-VL tests with detection limits less than 1000 copies/ml increased costs due to unnecessary switches to second-line ART, without improving survival. Assuming POC-VL unit costs between US$5 and US$20 and detection limits between 1000 and 10,000 copies/ml, the ICER of POC-VL was US$4010-US$9230 compared with clinical and US$5960-US$25540 compared with CD4 cell count monitoring. In Scenario B, the corresponding ICERs were US$2450-US$5830 and US$2230-US$10380. In Scenario C, the ICER ranged between US$960 and US$2500 compared with clinical monitoring and between cost-saving and US$2460 compared with CD4 monitoring. The cost-effectiveness of POC-VL for monitoring ART is improved by a higher detection limit, by taking the reduction in new HIV infections into account and assuming that failure of first-line ART is reduced due to targeted adherence counselling.

Linear genetic programming application for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan; Yerdelen, Cahit

2014-09-01

In recent decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been pronounced as a branch of computer science to model wide range of hydrological phenomena. A number of researches have been still comparing these techniques in order to find more effective approaches in terms of accuracy and applicability. In this study, we examined the ability of linear genetic programming (LGP) technique to model successive-station monthly streamflow process, as an applied alternative for streamflow prediction. A comparative efficiency study between LGP and three different artificial neural network algorithms, namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and radial basis function (RBF), has also been presented in this study. For this aim, firstly, we put forward six different successive-station monthly streamflow prediction scenarios subjected to training by LGP and FFBP using the field data recorded at two gauging stations on Çoruh River, Turkey. Based on Nash-Sutcliffe and root mean squared error measures, we then compared the efficiency of these techniques and selected the best prediction scenario. Eventually, GRNN and RBF algorithms were utilized to restructure the selected scenario and to compare with corresponding FFBP and LGP. Our results indicated the promising role of LGP for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction providing more accurate results than those of all the ANN algorithms. We found an explicit LGP-based expression evolved by only the basic arithmetic functions as the best prediction model for the river, which uses the records of the both target and upstream stations.

Assessing effects of structural zeros on models of canine cancer incidence: a case study of the Swiss Canine Cancer Registry.

PubMed

Boo, Gianluca; Leyk, Stefan; Fabrikant, Sara Irina; Pospischil, Andreas; Graf, Ramona

2017-05-11

Epidemiological research of canine cancers could inform comparative studies of environmental determinants for a number of human cancers. However, such an approach is currently limited because canine cancer data sources are still few in number and often incomplete. Incompleteness is typically due to under-ascertainment of canine cancers. A main reason for this is because dog owners commonly do not seek veterinary care for this diagnosis. Deeper knowledge on under-ascertainment is critical for modelling canine cancer incidence, as an indication of zero incidence might originate from the sole absence of diagnostic examinations within a given sample unit. In the present case study, we investigated effects of such structural zeros on models of canine cancer incidence. In doing so, we contrasted two scenarios for modelling incidence data retrieved from the Swiss Canine Cancer Registry. The first scenario was based on the complete enumeration of incidence data for all Swiss municipal units. The second scenario was based on a filtered sample that systematically discarded structural zeros in those municipal units where no diagnostic examination had been performed. By means of cross-validation, we assessed and contrasted statistical performance and predictive power of the two modelling scenarios. This analytical step allowed us to demonstrate that structural zeros impact on the generalisability of the model of canine cancer incidence, thus challenging future comparative studies of canine and human cancers. The results of this case study show that increased awareness about the effects of structural zeros is critical to epidemiological research.

The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain.

PubMed

Williams, Martin L; Lott, Melissa C; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Dajnak, David; Walton, Heather; Holland, Mike; Pye, Steve; Fecht, Daniela; Toledano, Mireille B; Beevers, Sean D

2018-05-01

Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions. In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM 2·5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups. NO 2 concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO 2 itself. PM 2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM 2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood burning), and by a large, projected increase in future demand for transport leading to potential increases in non-exhaust particulate matter emissions. The potential use of biomass in poorly controlled technologies to meet the Climate Change Act commitments would represent an important missed opportunity (resulting in 472 000 more life-years lost from PM 2·5 in the low-greenhouse gas scenario and 1 122 000 more life-years lost in the nuclear power scenario from PM 2·5 than the baseline scenario). Although substantial overall improvements in absolute amounts of exposure are seen compared with 2011, these outcomes mask the fact that health inequalities seen (in which socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are among the most exposed) are projected to be maintained up to 2050. The modelling infrastructure created will help future researchers explore a wider range of climate policy scenarios, including local, European, and global scenarios. The need to strengthen the links between climate change policy objectives and public health imperatives, and the benefits to societal wellbeing that might result is urgent. National Institute for Health Research. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

PubMed

Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

2016-03-01

A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

2013-03-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

Impact of the biorefinery size on the logistics of corn stover supply – A scenario analysis

DOE PAGES

Wang, Yu; Ebadian, Mahmood; Sokhansanj, Shahab; ...

2017-03-23

In this study, three scenarios are considered to quantify the impact of the biorefinery size on the required biomass logistical resources. The biorefinery scenarios include small scale (175 dt/day)-SS, medium scale (520 dt/day)-MS and large scale (860 dt/day)-LS. These scenarios are compared against the following logistical resources (1) harvest area and contracted fields, (2) logistics equipment fleet and the workforce to run this fleet and (3) intermediate storage sites and their biomass inventory levels. To this end, the IBSAL-MC simulation model is applied to a corn stover logistics system in Southwestern Ontario. The obtained results show (1) the harvest areamore » and the number of contracted fields increase by 65% and 78% from the SS scenario to the MS and LS scenarios, respectively, (2) the average biomass delivered costs are estimated to be $82.09, $87.49 and $93.75/dry tonne in the SS, MS and LS scenarios. The increase in the capital costs to develop a dedicated logistics equipment fleet are estimated to be far greater than the increase in the delivered costs as the size of the biorefinery increases. The upfront capital costs are estimated to be 6.72 dollars, 21.83 and 35.51 million in these scenarios. To run the logistics equipment fleet efficiently, 37, 136 and 235 well-trained operators are required in the SS, MS ad LS scenarios, respectively, and (3) the inventory level and the land requirement for storage in the MS and LS scenarios are estimated to be 225% and 425% greater than those of the SS scenario. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the logistical resources are highly sensitive to corn yield and farm participation rate. Overall, this study shows the importance of considering the size of the required logistical resources and the associated level of logistical complexity in evaluating the economic viability of a biorefinery project.« less

Impact of the biorefinery size on the logistics of corn stover supply – A scenario analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yu; Ebadian, Mahmood; Sokhansanj, Shahab

In this study, three scenarios are considered to quantify the impact of the biorefinery size on the required biomass logistical resources. The biorefinery scenarios include small scale (175 dt/day)-SS, medium scale (520 dt/day)-MS and large scale (860 dt/day)-LS. These scenarios are compared against the following logistical resources (1) harvest area and contracted fields, (2) logistics equipment fleet and the workforce to run this fleet and (3) intermediate storage sites and their biomass inventory levels. To this end, the IBSAL-MC simulation model is applied to a corn stover logistics system in Southwestern Ontario. The obtained results show (1) the harvest areamore » and the number of contracted fields increase by 65% and 78% from the SS scenario to the MS and LS scenarios, respectively, (2) the average biomass delivered costs are estimated to be $82.09, $87.49 and $93.75/dry tonne in the SS, MS and LS scenarios. The increase in the capital costs to develop a dedicated logistics equipment fleet are estimated to be far greater than the increase in the delivered costs as the size of the biorefinery increases. The upfront capital costs are estimated to be 6.72 dollars, 21.83 and 35.51 million in these scenarios. To run the logistics equipment fleet efficiently, 37, 136 and 235 well-trained operators are required in the SS, MS ad LS scenarios, respectively, and (3) the inventory level and the land requirement for storage in the MS and LS scenarios are estimated to be 225% and 425% greater than those of the SS scenario. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the logistical resources are highly sensitive to corn yield and farm participation rate. Overall, this study shows the importance of considering the size of the required logistical resources and the associated level of logistical complexity in evaluating the economic viability of a biorefinery project.« less

Decision making in trauma settings: simulation to improve diagnostic skills.

PubMed

Murray, David J; Freeman, Brad D; Boulet, John R; Woodhouse, Julie; Fehr, James J; Klingensmith, Mary E

2015-06-01

In the setting of acute injury, a wrong, missed, or delayed diagnosis can impact survival. Clinicians rely on pattern recognition and heuristics to rapidly assess injuries, but an overreliance on these approaches can result in a diagnostic error. Simulation has been advocated as a method for practitioners to learn how to recognize the limitations of heuristics and develop better diagnostic skills. The objective of this study was to determine whether simulation could be used to provide teams the experiences in managing scenarios that require the use of heuristic as well as analytic diagnostic skills to effectively recognize and treat potentially life-threatening injuries. Ten scenarios were developed to assess the ability of trauma teams to provide initial care to a severely injured patient. Seven standard scenarios simulated severe injuries that once diagnosed could be effectively treated using standard Advanced Trauma Life Support algorithms. Because diagnostic error occurs more commonly in complex clinical settings, 3 complex scenarios required teams to use more advanced diagnostic skills to uncover a coexisting condition and treat the patient. Teams composed of 3 to 5 practitioners were evaluated in the performance of 7 (of 10) randomly selected scenarios (5 standard, 2 complex). Expert rates scored teams using standardized checklists and global scores. Eighty-three surgery, emergency medicine, and anesthesia residents constituted 21 teams. Expert raters were able to reliably score the scenarios. Teams accomplished fewer checklist actions and received lower global scores on the 3 analytic scenarios (73.8% [12.3%] and 5.9 [1.6], respectively) compared with the 7 heuristic scenarios (83.2% [11.7%] and 6.6 [1.3], respectively; P < 0.05 for both). Teams led by more junior residents received higher global scores on the analytic scenarios (6.4 [1.3]) than the more senior team leaders (5.3 [1.7]). This preliminary study indicates that teams led by more senior residents received higher scores when managing heuristic scenarios but were less effective when managing the scenarios that require a more analytic approach. Simulation can be used to provide teams with decision-making experiences in trauma settings and could be used to improve diagnostic skills as well as study the decision-making process.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, W.; Heath, Garvin; Sandor, Debra

2013-04-01

The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect tomore » four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.« less

Rapid effective trace-back capability value: a case study of foot-and-mouth in the Texas High Plains.

PubMed

Hagerman, Amy D; Ward, Michael P; Anderson, David P; Looney, J Chris; McCarl, Bruce A

2013-07-01

In this study our aim was to value the benefits of rapid effective trace-back capability-based on a livestock identification system - in the event of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. We simulated an FMD outbreak in the Texas High Plains, an area of high livestock concentration, beginning in a large feedlot. Disease spread was simulated under different time dependent animal tracing scenarios. In the specific scenario modeled (incursion of FMD within a large feedlot, detection within 14 days and 90% effective tracing), simulation suggested that control costs of the outbreak significantly increase if tracing does not occur until day 10 as compared to the baseline of tracing on day 2. In addition, control costs are significantly increased if effectiveness were to drop to 30% as compared to the baseline of 90%. Results suggest potential benefits from rapid effective tracing in terms of reducing government control costs; however, a variety of other scenarios need to be explored before determining in which situations rapid effective trace-back capability is beneficial. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved battery parameter estimation method considering operating scenarios for HEV/EV applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Jufeng; Xia, Bing; Shang, Yunlong

This study presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted datasetmore » is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC) network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.« less

Improved battery parameter estimation method considering operating scenarios for HEV/EV applications

DOE PAGES

Yang, Jufeng; Xia, Bing; Shang, Yunlong; ...

2016-12-22

This study presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted datasetmore » is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC) network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.« less

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

PubMed

Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

The use of multi criteria analysis to compare the operating scenarios of the hybrid generation system of wind turbines, photovoltaic modules and a fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceran, Bartosz

2017-11-01

The paper presents the results of the use of multi-criteria analysis to compare hybrid power generation system collaboration scenarios (HSW) consisting of wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage electrolyzer - PEM type fuel cell with electricity system. The following scenarios were examined: the base S-I-hybrid system powers the off-grid mode receiver, S-II, S-III, S-IV scenarios-electricity system covers 25%, 50%, 75% of energy demand by the recipient. The effect of weights of the above-mentioned criteria on the final result of the multi-criteria analysis was examined.

A Comparative Study on Willingness to Pay for Breast Cancer and Osteoporosis Screening in Kerman, Southeastern Iran.

PubMed

Sabermahani, Asma; Mohammad Taghizade, Sedighe; Goodarzi, Reza

2017-05-01

One of the economic evaluation techniques involves calculation of willingness to pay (WTP) for a service to find out the value of that service from the clients' perspective. This study estimated WTP for both breast cancer and osteoporosis screening and comparatively examined the contributing factors. In fact, the comparisons served to provide an exact analysis of individual attitudes and behaviors in relation to screening programs for cancers and other diseases. This study was first designed in six scenarios several questionnaires concerning individual breast cancer and osteoporosis screening cases, and determined the WTP median in each scenario between people in Kerman Province of Iran in 2016. Then, the demand function for breast cancer and osteoporosis screening was formulated. Moreover, the factors contributing to WTP were examined through various scenarios in Stata and econometric techniques. The median and mean values of WTP in all the above scenarios were greater for breast cancer screening than for osteoporosis screening. Theoretically, the price assumed a minus sign whereas risk assumed a plus sign within the demand function formulated for both screening programs. Regarding the evaluated factors, age in breast cancer screening and risk of disease in osteoporosis screening were the major factors contributing to WTP. Breast cancer screening was more valuable than osteoporosis screening program from the perspective of the subjects. The programs can be successfully designed by concentrating on patients' age groups in breast cancer screening and high-risk patients in osteoporosis screening.

Bias due to differential participation in case-control studies and review of available approaches for adjustment.

PubMed

Aigner, Annette; Grittner, Ulrike; Becher, Heiko

2018-01-01

Low response rates in epidemiologic research potentially lead to the recruitment of a non-representative sample of controls in case-control studies. Problems in the unbiased estimation of odds ratios arise when characteristics causing the probability of participation are associated with exposure and outcome. This is a specific setting of selection bias and a realistic hazard in many case-control studies. This paper formally describes the problem and shows its potential extent, reviews existing approaches for bias adjustment applicable under certain conditions, compares and applies them. We focus on two scenarios: a characteristic C causing differential participation of controls is linked to the outcome through its association with risk factor E (scenario I), and C is additionally a genuine risk factor itself (scenario II). We further assume external data sources are available which provide an unbiased estimate of C in the underlying population. Given these scenarios, we (i) review available approaches and their performance in the setting of bias due to differential participation; (ii) describe two existing approaches to correct for the bias in both scenarios in more detail; (iii) present the magnitude of the resulting bias by simulation if the selection of a non-representative sample is ignored; and (iv) demonstrate the approaches' application via data from a case-control study on stroke. The bias of the effect measure for variable E in scenario I and C in scenario II can be large and should therefore be adjusted for in any analysis. It is positively associated with the difference in response rates between groups of the characteristic causing differential participation, and inversely associated with the total response rate in the controls. Adjustment in a standard logistic regression framework is possible in both scenarios if the population distribution of the characteristic causing differential participation is known or can be approximated well.

Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits. PMID:25412200

Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

PubMed

Morita, Haruka; Yang, Suijia; Unger, Nadine; Kinney, Patrick L

2014-12-16

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

An approach to the preliminary evaluation of Closed Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) scenarios and control strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahr, J. D.; Auslander, D. M.; Spear, R. C.; Young, G. E.

1982-01-01

Life support systems for manned space missions are discussed. A scenario analysis method was proposed for the initial step of comparing possible partial or total recycle scenarios. The method is discussed in detail.

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

PubMed

Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the process of analyzing the environmental effects of alternative actions.

The Economic Impact of Adaptive Responses to Future Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Ecological Change in the Tonle Sap Ecosystem, Cambodia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teh, L.; Bond, N.; KC, K. B.; Fraser, E. D. G.; Seng, R.; Sumaila, R.

2016-12-01

The livelihoods of people dependent on the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia are expected to be affected by future socio-economic, policy, ecological, and climate change. To investigate the economic impact of these changes on fishing dependent communities, we compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Under current conditions, we find that the group of individuals who do not participate in fishing had the lowest net income. In contrast, individuals who participated in fishing only had comparatively higher average net income than those with multiple livelihoods, suggesting that there may be current gains from livelihood specialisation. When presented with scenarios of future ecological and socio-economic change, the majority of respondents chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Of those who did change their livelihood allocation, less than 10% actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Overall, a loss in net income was expected under all future scenarios, with those engaged in single livelihoods being the most vulnerable because they were likely to experience the largest losses (7 - 29% loss vs. 1 - 17% for multi-livelihoods) across all 4 scenarios while having the least capacity to adapt. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under the scenario depicting the status quo, indicating that they were capable of coping with current conditions, but were unlikely to make appropriate decisions when faced with future scenarios that they were unfamiliar with. By quantifying the consequences of low adaptive capacity in terms of income loss, this study provides an economic argument for addressing the social and economic factors that currently inhibit the capacity of Tonle Sap inhabitants to adapt to future change. It also emphasises the need for sustainable management of fish and water resources upon which inhabitants are currently heavily dependent upon.

Assessing the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Slater, Hannah C; Griffin, Jamie T; Ghani, Azra C; Okell, Lucy C

2016-01-06

Artemisinin and partner drug resistant malaria parasites have emerged in Southeast Asia. If resistance were to emerge in Africa it could have a devastating impact on malaria-related morbidity and mortality. This study estimates the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance on disease burden in Africa if it were to emerge. Using data from Asia and Africa, five possible artemisinin and partner drug resistance scenarios are characterized. An individual-based malaria transmission model is used to estimate the impact of each resistance scenario on clinical incidence and parasite prevalence across Africa. Artemisinin resistance is characterized by slow parasite clearance and partner drug resistance is associated with late clinical failure or late parasitological failure. Scenarios with high levels of recrudescent infections resulted in far greater increases in clinical incidence compared to scenarios with high levels of slow parasite clearance. Across Africa, it is estimated that artemisinin and partner drug resistance at levels similar to those observed in Oddar Meanchey province in Cambodia could result in an additional 78 million cases over a 5 year period, a 7% increase in cases compared to a scenario with no resistance. A scenario with high levels of slow clearance but no recrudescence resulted in an additional 10 million additional cases over the same period. Artemisinin resistance is potentially a more pressing concern than partner drug resistance due to the lack of viable alternatives. However, it is predicted that a failing partner drug will result in greater increases in malaria cases and morbidity than would be observed from artemisinin resistance only.

Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) - a bottom-up, science-led approach to identifying indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; Oschlies, Andreas

2018-01-01

This study introduces the Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method, a bottom-up approach which combines expert judgment and statistical information to systematically select transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the state of the Earth system. The methods consists of two basic steps: (1) the calculation of a correlation matrix among variables relevant for a given research question and (2) the systematic evaluation of the matrix, to identify clusters of variables with similar behavior and respective mutually independent indicators. Optional further analysis steps include (3) the interpretation of the identified clusters, enabling a learning effect from the selection of indicators, (4) testing the robustness of identified clusters with respect to changes in forcing or boundary conditions, (5) enabling a comparative assessment of varying scenarios by constructing and evaluating a common correlation matrix, and (6) the inclusion of expert judgment, for example, to prescribe indicators, to allow for considerations other than statistical consistency. The example application of the SCoMaE method to Earth system model output forced by different CO2 emission scenarios reveals the necessity of reevaluating indicators identified in a historical scenario simulation for an accurate assessment of an intermediate-high, as well as a business-as-usual, climate change scenario simulation. This necessity arises from changes in prevailing correlations in the Earth system under varying climate forcing. For a comparative assessment of the three climate change scenarios, we construct and evaluate a common correlation matrix, in which we identify robust correlations between variables across the three considered scenarios.

Defining a quantitative framework for evaluation and optimisation of the environmental impacts of mega-event projects.

PubMed

Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

2016-02-01

This paper presents a novel quantitative methodology for the evaluation and optimisation of the environmental impacts of the whole life cycle of a mega-event project: construction and staging the event and post-event site redevelopment and operation. Within the proposed framework, a mathematical model has been developed that takes into account greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from use of transportation fuel, energy, water and construction materials used at all stages of the mega-event project. The model is applied to a case study - the London Olympic Park. Three potential post-event site design scenarios of the Park have been developed: Business as Usual (BAU), Commercial World (CW) and High Rise High Density (HRHD). A quantitative summary of results demonstrates that the highest GHG emissions associated with the actual event are almost negligible compared to those associated with the legacy phase. The highest share of emissions in the legacy phase is attributed to embodied emissions from construction materials (almost 50% for the BAU and HRHD scenarios) and emissions resulting from the transportation of residents, visitors and employees to/from the site (almost 60% for the CW scenario). The BAU scenario is the one with the lowest GHG emissions compared to the other scenarios. The results also demonstrate how post-event site design scenarios can be optimised to minimise the GHG emissions. The overall outcomes illustrate how the proposed framework can be used to support decision making process for mega-event projects planning. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Scaling up family planning in Sierra Leone: A prospective cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Keen, Sarah; Begum, Hashina; Friedman, Howard S; James, Chris D

2017-12-01

Family planning is commonly regarded as a highly cost-effective health intervention with wider social and economic benefits. Yet use of family planning services in Sierra Leone is currently low and 25.0% of married women have an unmet need for contraception. This study aims to estimate the costs and benefits of scaling up family planning in Sierra Leone. Using the OneHealth Tool, two scenarios of scaling up family planning coverage to currently married women in Sierra Leone over 2013-2035 were assessed and compared to a 'no-change' counterfactual. Our costing included direct costs of drugs, supplies and personnel time, programme costs and a share of health facility overhead costs. To monetise the benefits, we projected the cost savings of the government providing five essential social services - primary education, child immunisation, malaria prevention, maternal health services and improved drinking water - in the scale-up scenarios compared to the counterfactual. The total population, estimated at 6.1 million in 2013, is projected to reach 8.3 million by 2035 in the high scenario compared to a counterfactual of 9.6 million. We estimate that by 2035, there will be 1400 fewer maternal deaths and 700 fewer infant deaths in the high scenario compared to the counterfactual. Our modelling suggests that total costs of the family planning programme in Sierra Leone will increase from US$4.2 million in 2013 to US$10.6 million a year by 2035 in the high scenario. For every dollar spent on family planning, Sierra Leone is estimated to save US$2.10 in expenditure on the five selected social sector services over the period. There is a strong investment case for scaling up family planning services in Sierra Leone. The ambitious scale-up scenarios have historical precedent in other sub-Saharan African countries, but the extent to which they will be achieved depends on a commitment from both the government and donors to strengthening Sierra Leone's health system post-Ebola.

Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

PubMed

Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

2014-08-19

Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in determining net emissions effects resulting from energy export projects and related policy decisions.

Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

PubMed

Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

2015-07-01

This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Theoretical Impact of Replacing Whole Cow's Milk by Young-Child Formula on Nutrient Intakes of UK Young Children: Results of a Simulation Study.

PubMed

Eussen, Simone R B M; Pean, Josephine; Olivier, Leanne; Delaere, Fabien; Lluch, Anne

2015-01-01

Research into the role of young-child formulae (YCF) in a child's diet is limited and there is no consensual recommendation on its use. We evaluated the theoretical nutritional impact of replacing the existing practice of consuming cow's milk by YCF. From the UK Diet and Nutrition Survey of Infants and Young Children, whole cow's milk consumers, aged 12-18 months (n = 591) were selected for simulation scenarios. In Scenario 1, we tested the replacement of all whole cow's milk (434 ± 187 ml/day) by a matching volume of YCF, and in Scenario 2, all whole cow's milk was replaced by the on-pack recommended daily intake of 300 ml. Nutrient intakes before and after simulation scenarios were compared and evaluated against nutrient recommendations. Intakes of protein and saturated fatty acids were significantly decreased, whereas essential fatty acid intakes were increased. The prevalence of nutrient inadequacy before simulation was 95.2% for vitamin D and 53.8% for iron. After simulation, inadequacy decreased to 4.9% (Scenario 1) and 0% (Scenario 2) for vitamin D and to 2.7% (Scenario 1) and 1.1% (Scenario 2) for iron. Replacement of habitual cow's milk intake by a matching volume or 300 ml of YCF may lead to nutritional intakes more in line with recommendations in young children. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The neurocognitive effects of a conducted electrical weapon compared to high intensity interval training and alcohol intoxication - implications for Miranda and consent.

PubMed

Dawes, D; Ho, J; Vincent, A S; Nystrom, P; Driver, B

2018-01-01

While the physiologic effects of conducted electrical weapons (CEW) have been the subjects of numerous studies over nearly two decades, their effects on neurocognitive functioning, both short-term and long-term, have only recently been studied. In a 2014 study involving use-of-force scenarios, including a CEW scenario, we found that there was a decline in neurocognitive performance immediately post-scenario in all groups; however this effect was transient, of questionable clinical/legal significance, not statistically different between the groups, and, returned to baseline by one hour post-scenario. Two subsequent studies by other authors have also found transient neurocognitive effects in the immediate post-exposure period; however, in one study, the effect was greater in one measure (of 5) for the CEW compared to exertion, and the authors suggested that this effect could have implications for the Miranda waiver obtained before custodial interrogation as well as consent. In our current study, we compared the neurocognitive effects of an exposure to a CEW to another exertion regimen, as well as to alcohol intoxication given the latter has significant established case law with regard to the Miranda waiver and consent. Such a comparison may offer more insight into the clinical/legal significance of any measured changes. As with the prior studies, the neurocognitive performance decrements of the CEW and exertion regimens, found only in one measure in this study (of three), were transient, and here, non-significant. Only alcohol intoxication resulted in statistically significant performance declines across all measures and these were persistent over the study period. Given that the neurocognitive changes associated with the CEW were non-significant, but were significant for alcohol intoxication, and given that current case law does not use intoxication as a per se or bright line barrier to Miranda and consent, our results do not suggest that a CEW exposure should preclude waiving of Miranda rights or obtaining consent. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Using alcohol intoxication goggles (Fatal Vision® goggles) to detect alcohol related impairment in simulated driving.

PubMed

McCartney, Danielle; Desbrow, Ben; Irwin, Christopher

2017-01-02

Fatal vision goggles (FVGs) are image-distorting equipment used within driver education programs to simulate alcohol-related impairment. However, there is no empirical evidence comparing the behavioral effects associated with wearing FVGs to alcohol intoxication. The purpose of this study was to determine the validity of FVGs in producing alcohol-related impairment in simulated driving. Twenty-two healthy males (age: 23 ± 3 years, mean ± SD) participated in a placebo-controlled crossover design study involving 4 experimental trials. In each trial, participants completed a baseline level simulated driving task followed by an experimental driving task, involving one of 4 treatments: (1) a dose of alcohol designed to elicit 0.080% breath alcohol concentration (BrAC; AB), (2) an alcohol placebo beverage (PB), (3) FVG (estimated % blood alcohol concentration [BAC] 0.070-0.100+), and (4) placebo goggles (PGs). The driving tasks included 3 separate scenarios lasting ∼5 min each; these were a simple driving scenario, a complex driving scenario, and a hazard perception driving scenario. Selected lateral control parameters (standard deviation of lane position [SDLP]; total number of lane crossings [LCs]) and longitudinal control parameters (average speed; standard deviation of speed [SDSP]; distance headway; minimum distance headway) were monitored during the simple and complex driving scenarios. Latency to 2 different stimuli (choice reaction time [CRT]) was tested in the hazard perception driving scenario. Subjective ratings of mood and attitudes toward driving were also provided during each of the trials. Neither placebo treatment influenced simulated driving performance. Mean BrAC was 0.060 ± 0.010% at the time of driving on the AB trial. Lateral control: In the simple driving scenario, SDLP and LC were not affected under any of the experimental treatments. However, in the complex driving scenario, significantly greater SDLP was observed on both the FVG and AB trials compared to their respective baseline drives. LC increased significantly from baseline on the AB trial only. Longitudinal control: Speed was not affected by any of the experimental treatments; however, SDSP increased significantly from baseline on the FVG trial. A significant reduction in distance headway and minimum distance headway was detected on the FVG trial compared to baseline. Hazard perception: Neither AB nor FVG trials were influential on CRT. Subjective mood ratings were significantly altered on the AB and FVG trials compared to baseline and placebo conditions. Participants reported reduced willingness and ability to drive under the active treatments (AB and FVG) than the placebo treatments (PB and PG). FVGs may have some utility in replicating alcohol-related impairment on specific driving performance measurements. Hence, the equipment may offer an alternative approach to researching the impact of alcohol intoxication on simulated driving performance among populations where the provision of alcohol would otherwise be unethical (e.g., prelicensed drivers).

Forest management strategies for reducing carbon emissions, the French case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, Aude; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Bellassen, Valentin; Vallet, Patrick; Martin, Manuel

2015-04-01

International agreements now recognize the role of forest in the mitigation of climate change through the levers of in-situ sequestration, storage in products and energy and product substitution. These three strategies of carbon management are often antagonistic and it is still not clear which strategy would have the most significant impact on atmospheric carbon concentrations. With a focus on France, this study compares several scenarios of forest management in terms of their effect on the overall carbon budget from trees to wood-products. We elaborated four scenarios of forest management that target different wood production objectives. One scenario is 'Business as usual' and reproduces the current forest management and wood production levels. Two scenarios target an increase in bioenergy wood production, with either long-term or short-term goals. One scenario aims at increasing the production of timber for construction. For this, an empirical regression model was developed building on the rich French inventory database. The model can project the current forest resource at a time horizon of 20 years for characteristic variables diameter, standing volume, above-ground biomass, stand age. A simplified life-cycle analysis provides a full carbon budget for each scenario from forest management to wood use and allows the identification of the scenario that most reduces carbon emissions.

Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study

PubMed Central

Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas RV; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

2017-01-01

Objective To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. Design For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1–5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Setting Working age population for England. Participants Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Primary outcomes measured Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Results Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO2e/year for the diet scenarios. Conclusions Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. PMID:28399514

A comparison of entropy balance and probability weighting methods to generalize observational cohorts to a population: a simulation and empirical example.

PubMed

Harvey, Raymond A; Hayden, Jennifer D; Kamble, Pravin S; Bouchard, Jonathan R; Huang, Joanna C

2017-04-01

We compared methods to control bias and confounding in observational studies including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and stabilized IPW (sIPW). These methods often require iteration and post-calibration to achieve covariate balance. In comparison, entropy balance (EB) optimizes covariate balance a priori by calibrating weights using the target's moments as constraints. We measured covariate balance empirically and by simulation by using absolute standardized mean difference (ASMD), absolute bias (AB), and root mean square error (RMSE), investigating two scenarios: the size of the observed (exposed) cohort exceeds the target (unexposed) cohort and vice versa. The empirical application weighted a commercial health plan cohort to a nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey target on the same covariates and compared average total health care cost estimates across methods. Entropy balance alone achieved balance (ASMD ≤ 0.10) on all covariates in simulation and empirically. In simulation scenario I, EB achieved the lowest AB and RMSE (13.64, 31.19) compared with IPW (263.05, 263.99) and sIPW (319.91, 320.71). In scenario II, EB outperformed IPW and sIPW with smaller AB and RMSE. In scenarios I and II, EB achieved the lowest mean estimate difference from the simulated population outcome ($490.05, $487.62) compared with IPW and sIPW, respectively. Empirically, only EB differed from the unweighted mean cost indicating IPW, and sIPW weighting was ineffective. Entropy balance demonstrated the bias-variance tradeoff achieving higher estimate accuracy, yet lower estimate precision, compared with IPW methods. EB weighting required no post-processing and effectively mitigated observed bias and confounding. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Design, implementation, and psychometric analysis of a scoring instrument for simulated pediatric resuscitation: a report from the EXPRESS pediatric investigators.

PubMed

Donoghue, Aaron; Ventre, Kathleen; Boulet, John; Brett-Fleegler, Marisa; Nishisaki, Akira; Overly, Frank; Cheng, Adam

2011-04-01

Robustly tested instruments for quantifying clinical performance during pediatric resuscitation are lacking. Examining Pediatric Resuscitation Education through Simulation and Scripting Collaborative was established to conduct multicenter trials of simulation education in pediatric resuscitation, evaluating performance with multiple instruments, one of which is the Clinical Performance Tool (CPT). We hypothesize that the CPT will measure clinical performance during simulated pediatric resuscitation in a reliable and valid manner. Using a pediatric resuscitation scenario as a basis, a scoring system was designed based on Pediatric Advanced Life Support algorithms comprising 21 tasks. Each task was scored as follows: task not performed (0 points); task performed partially, incorrectly, or late (1 point); and task performed completely, correctly, and within the recommended time frame (2 points). Study teams at 14 children's hospitals went through the scenario twice (PRE and POST) with an interposed 20-minute debriefing. Both scenarios for each of eight study teams were scored by multiple raters. A generalizability study, based on the PRE scores, was conducted to investigate the sources of measurement error in the CPT total scores. Inter-rater reliability was estimated based on the variance components. Validity was assessed by repeated measures analysis of variance comparing PRE and POST scores. Sixteen resuscitation scenarios were reviewed and scored by seven raters. Inter-rater reliability for the overall CPT score was 0.63. POST scores were found to be significantly improved compared with PRE scores when controlled for within-subject covariance (F1,15 = 4.64, P < 0.05). The variance component ascribable to rater was 2.4%. Reliable and valid measures of performance in simulated pediatric resuscitation can be obtained from the CPT. Future studies should examine the applicability of trichotomous scoring instruments to other clinical scenarios, as well as performance during actual resuscitations.

Are There Scenarios When the Use of Non-Placebo-Control Groups in Experimental Trial Designs Increase Expected Value to Society?

PubMed

Uyei, Jennifer; Braithwaite, R Scott

2016-01-01

Despite the benefits of the placebo-controlled trial design, it is limited by its inability to quantify total benefits and harms. Such trials, for example, are not designed to detect an intervention's placebo or nocebo effects, which if detected could alter the benefit-to-harm balance and change a decision to adopt or reject an intervention. In this article, we explore scenarios in which alternative experimental trial designs, which differ in the type of control used, influence expected value across a range of pretest assumptions and study sample sizes. We developed a decision model to compare 3 trial designs and their implications for decision making: 2-arm placebo-controlled trial ("placebo-control"), 2-arm intervention v. do nothing trial ("null-control"), and an innovative 3-arm trial design: intervention v. do nothing v. placebo trial ("novel design"). Four scenarios were explored regarding particular attributes of a hypothetical intervention: 1) all benefits and no harm, 2) no biological effect, 3) only biological effects, and 4) surreptitious harm (no biological benefit or nocebo effect). Scenario 1: When sample sizes were very small, the null-control was preferred, but as sample sizes increased, expected value of all 3 designs converged. Scenario 2: The null-control was preferred regardless of sample size when the ratio of placebo to nocebo effect was >1; otherwise, the placebo-control was preferred. Scenario 3: When sample size was very small, the placebo-control was preferred when benefits outweighed harms, but the novel design was preferred when harms outweighed benefits. Scenario 4: The placebo-control was preferred when harms outweighed placebo benefits; otherwise, preference went to the null-control. Scenarios are hypothetical, study designs have not been tested in a real-world setting, blinding is not possible in all designs, and some may argue the novel design poses ethical concerns. We identified scenarios in which alternative experimental study designs would confer greater expected value than the placebo-controlled trial design. The likelihood and prevalence of such situations warrant further study. © The Author(s) 2015.

Rational design of gold nanoparticle toxicology assays: a question of exposure scenario, dose and experimental setup.

PubMed

Taylor, Ulrike; Rehbock, Christoph; Streich, Carmen; Rath, Detlef; Barcikowski, Stephan

2014-09-01

Many studies have evaluated the toxicity of gold nanoparticles, although reliable predictions based on these results are rare. In order to overcome this problem, this article highlights strategies to improve comparability and standardization of nanotoxicological studies. To this end, it is proposed that we should adapt the nanomaterial to the addressed exposure scenario, using ligand-free nanoparticle references in order to differentiate ligand effects from size effects. Furthermore, surface-weighted particle dosing referenced to the biologically relevant parameter (e.g., cell number or organ mass) is proposed as the gold standard. In addition, it is recommended that we should shift the focus of toxicological experiments from 'live-dead' assays to the assessment of cell function, as this strategy allows observation of bioresponses at lower doses that are more relevant for in vivo scenarios.

Temperature - Emissivity Separation Assessment in a Sub-Urban Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moscadelli, M.; Diani, M.; Corsini, G.

2017-10-01

In this paper, a methodology that aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different TES strategies is presented. The methodology takes into account the specific material of interest in the monitored scenario, sensor characteristics, and errors in the atmospheric compensation step. The methodology is proposed in order to predict and analyse algorithms performances during the planning of a remote sensing mission, aimed to discover specific materials of interest in the monitored scenario. As case study, the proposed methodology is applied to a real airborne data set of a suburban scenario. In order to perform the TES problem, three state-of-the-art algorithms, and a recently proposed one, are investigated: Temperature-Emissivity Separation '98 (TES-98) algorithm, Stepwise Refining TES (SRTES) algorithm, Linear piecewise TES (LTES) algorithm, and Optimized Smoothing TES (OSTES) algorithm. At the end, the accuracy obtained with real data, and the ones predicted by means of the proposed methodology are compared and discussed.

Future changes in precipitation of the baiu season under RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

2014-12-01

Recently, the relationship between global warming and rainfall during the rainy season, which called the baiu in Japan, has been attracting attention in association with heavy rainfall in this period. In the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century, many studies show a delay in the northward march of the baiu front, and significant increase of daily precipitation amounts around western Japan during the late baiu season (e.g., Kusunoki et al. 2011, Kanada et al. 2012). The future climate experiment in these studies was performed under the IPCC SRES A1B scenarios for global warming conditions. In this study, we discuss the future changes in precipitation using calculated 60km-mesh model (MRI-AGCM3.2H) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). These dataset are calculated by setting the Yoshimura (YS) scheme mainly.Seasonal progression of future precipitation generally indicates the northward in RCP2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, around western Japan. In RCP6.0 scenario, precipitation intensity is weak compared to the other scenarios. RCP8.5 scenario is calculated by setting three different cumulus schemes (YS, Arakawa-Schubert (AS), and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes). RCP8.5 configured in YS scheme showed that the rainband associated with the baiu front is not clear. Moreover, peak is remarkable during late June. In AS scheme, the precipitation area stagnates around 30 N until August. And it in KF scheme shows gradual northward migration.This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

Dog and cat management through sterilization: Implications for population dynamics and veterinary public policies.

PubMed

Dias, Ricardo Augusto; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; Guilloux, Aline Gil Alves; Moretti, Caio Figueiredo; de Lucca, Tosca; Rodrigues, Ricardo Conde Alves; Castagna, Cláudio Luiz; Presotto, Douglas; Kronitzky, Yury Cezar; Grisi-Filho, José Henrique Hildebrand; Ferreira, Fernando; Amaku, Marcos

2015-11-01

The present study aimed to compare different sterilization scenarios allowing the adoption of the most adequate strategy to control owned dog and cat population sizes as the official veterinary public policy for animal control in an urban area of Campinas municipality, Brazil. To achieve this goal, the vital parameters of the owned pet population were measured in a neighborhood of Campinas called Jardim Vila Olimpia through questionnaires used in two census studies performed in February 2012 and June 2013. Different hypothetical sterilization scenarios were compared with the scenario of a single sterilization campaign performed in the study area between the census studies. Using a deterministic mathematical model, population dynamics were simulated for these different scenarios. We have observed that for both owned dogs and cats, the impact on the population size achieved by a single sterilization campaign would be diluted over the years, equating to the impact achieved by the usual sterilization rate practiced before the sterilization campaign yearly. Moreover, using local and global sensitivity analyses, we assessed the relative influence on animal population evolution of each vital parameter used in the mathematical models. The more influential parameters for both species were the carrying capacity of the environment and sterilization rates of males and females (for both species). We observed that even with sterilizing 100% of the intact animals annually, it would not be possible to obtain proportions greater than 86% and 88% of sterilized dogs and cats, respectively, after 20 years due to the high introduction of new intact animals. There is no public dog and cat sterilization service in place in the city, and sporadic and local sterilization campaigns are performed with a prior communication to the owners to bring their animals to be sterilized in a selected veterinary facility. If a sterilization campaign was performed annually in the study area, it would have the most favorable cost effectiveness ratio after 20 years compared to the scenarios of 50% and 100% sterilization of intact animals annually. These results allowed the veterinary public policy stakeholders to make decisions based on scientific evidence to implement adequate control of dog and cat populations in urban areas, aiming to reduce zoonosis transmission to humans and other problems associated with uncontrolled animal populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of exposure to GSM mobile phone base station signals on salivary cortisol, alpha-amylase, and immunoglobulin A.

PubMed

Augner, Christoph; Hacker, Gerhard W; Oberfeld, Gerd; Florian, Matthias; Hitzl, Wolfgang; Hutter, Jörg; Pauser, Gernot

2010-06-01

The present study aimed to test whether exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) emitted by mobile phone base stations may have effects on salivary alpha-amylase, immunoglobulin A (IgA), and cortisol levels. Fifty seven participants were randomly allocated to one of three different experimental scenarios (22 participants to scenario 1, 26 to scenario 2, and 9 to scenario 3). Each participant went through five 50-minute exposure sessions. The main RF-EMF source was a GSM-900-MHz antenna located at the outer wall of the building. In scenarios 1 and 2, the first, third, and fifth sessions were "low" (median power flux density 5.2 microW/m(2)) exposure. The second session was "high" (2126.8 microW/m(2)), and the fourth session was "medium" (153.6 microW/m(2)) in scenario 1, and vice versa in scenario 2. Scenario 3 had four "low" exposure conditions, followed by a "high" exposure condition. Biomedical parameters were collected by saliva samples three times a session. Exposure levels were created by shielding curtains. In scenario 3 from session 4 to session 5 (from "low" to "high" exposure), an increase of cortisol was detected, while in scenarios 1 and 2, a higher concentration of alpha-amylase related to the baseline was identified as compared to that in scenario 3. IgA concentration was not significantly related to the exposure. RF-EMF in considerably lower field densities than ICNIRP-guidelines may influence certain psychobiological stress markers. Copyright © 2010 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Empirical Comparison of Discrete Choice Experiment and Best-Worst Scaling to Estimate Stakeholders' Risk Tolerance for Hip Replacement Surgery.

PubMed

van Dijk, Joris D; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M; Marshall, Deborah A; IJzerman, Maarten J

2016-06-01

Previous studies have been inconclusive regarding the validity and reliability of preference elicitation methods. The aim of this study was to compare the metrics obtained from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and profile-case best-worst scaling (BWS) with respect to hip replacement. We surveyed the general US population of men aged 45 to 65 years, and potentially eligible for hip replacement surgery. The survey included sociodemographic questions, eight DCE questions, and twelve BWS questions. Attributes were the probability of a first and second revision, pain relief, ability to participate in sports and perform daily activities, and length of hospital stay. Conditional logit analysis was used to estimate attribute weights, level preferences, and the maximum acceptable risk (MAR) for undergoing revision surgery in six hypothetical treatment scenarios with different attribute levels. A total of 429 (96%) respondents were included. Comparable attribute weights and level preferences were found for both BWS and DCE. Preferences were greatest for hip replacement surgery with high pain relief and the ability to participate in sports and perform daily activities. Although the estimated MARs for revision surgery followed the same trend, the MARs were systematically higher in five of the six scenarios using DCE. This study confirms previous findings that BWS or DCEs are comparable in estimating attribute weights and level preferences. However, the risk tolerance threshold based on the estimation of MAR differs between these methods, possibly leading to inconsistency in comparing treatment scenarios. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimizing trial design in pharmacogenetics research: comparing a fixed parallel group, group sequential, and adaptive selection design on sample size requirements.

PubMed

Boessen, Ruud; van der Baan, Frederieke; Groenwold, Rolf; Egberts, Antoine; Klungel, Olaf; Grobbee, Diederick; Knol, Mirjam; Roes, Kit

2013-01-01

Two-stage clinical trial designs may be efficient in pharmacogenetics research when there is some but inconclusive evidence of effect modification by a genomic marker. Two-stage designs allow to stop early for efficacy or futility and can offer the additional opportunity to enrich the study population to a specific patient subgroup after an interim analysis. This study compared sample size requirements for fixed parallel group, group sequential, and adaptive selection designs with equal overall power and control of the family-wise type I error rate. The designs were evaluated across scenarios that defined the effect sizes in the marker positive and marker negative subgroups and the prevalence of marker positive patients in the overall study population. Effect sizes were chosen to reflect realistic planning scenarios, where at least some effect is present in the marker negative subgroup. In addition, scenarios were considered in which the assumed 'true' subgroup effects (i.e., the postulated effects) differed from those hypothesized at the planning stage. As expected, both two-stage designs generally required fewer patients than a fixed parallel group design, and the advantage increased as the difference between subgroups increased. The adaptive selection design added little further reduction in sample size, as compared with the group sequential design, when the postulated effect sizes were equal to those hypothesized at the planning stage. However, when the postulated effects deviated strongly in favor of enrichment, the comparative advantage of the adaptive selection design increased, which precisely reflects the adaptive nature of the design. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

PubMed

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

2016-04-12

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

PubMed Central

Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

2013-01-01

Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

Use and knowledge of single dose activated charcoal: A survey of Australian doctors.

PubMed

Corcoran, Gabriela; Chan, Betty; Chiew, Angela

2016-10-01

The use of single dose activated charcoal (SDAC) as a means of gastric decontamination is declining. The present study examined the potential use of SDAC in common overdose scenarios by Australian emergency doctors, compared with clinical toxicologists and current guidelines. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of emergency doctors and toxicologists on the use of SDAC. The survey covered demographic data, education and previous use of SDAC and six clinical scenarios. The scenarios selected included agents not bound to SDAC, sustained-release preparations and ingestions at varying time points. Statistical calculations were performed using Fisher's exact test. There were 397 emergency doctors and 20 toxicologists who responded to the survey. Seventy-one per cent (n = 280/397) of emergency doctors indicated they had received some education on decontamination. Eighty-three per cent (n = 331/397) had administered SDAC during their medical career, 29% (n = 117/397) within the past year. There was a significant difference in responses between emergency doctors and toxicologists in two scenarios; a toxic paracetamol ingestion presenting within 1 h (P = 0.009) and verapamil ingestion in a 3 year old boy (P = 0.001). Toxicologists were more likely to administer SDAC in these scenarios, 89% (n = 16/18) and 88% (n = 15/17), respectively, compared with 52% (n = 197/381) and 43% (n = 158/371) of emergency doctors. Our study showed that there is a significant variation in the use of SDAC between toxicologists and emergency doctors in some scenarios. Clinical toxicologists are more likely to administer SDAC in certain overdose settings. It is essential to provide education on the benefits versus actual risks of SDAC in acute poisoning so that doctors will understand when to administer SDAC or seek further advice. © 2016 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Comparative Analysis of Modeling Studies on China's Future Energy and Emissions Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Nina; Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David

The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with each new approach adding insights to our understanding of the changing dynamics of energy consumption and aggregate future energy trends. With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of Chinese outlook models have been developed across different institutions including in China's Energy Research Institute's 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report, McKinsey & Co's China's Green Revolution report, the UK Sussex Energy Group and Tyndall Centre's China's Energy Transition report, and the China-specificmore » section of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009. At the same time, the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed a bottom-up, end-use energy model for China with scenario analysis of energy and emission pathways out to 2050. A robust and credible energy and emission model will play a key role in informing policymakers by assessing efficiency policy impacts and understanding the dynamics of future energy consumption and energy saving and emission reduction potential. This is especially true for developing countries such as China, where uncertainties are greater while the economy continues to undergo rapid growth and industrialization. A slightly different assumption or storyline could result in significant discrepancies among different model results. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the key models in terms of their scope, methodologies, key driver assumptions and the associated findings. A comparative analysis of LBNL's energy end-use model scenarios with the five above studies was thus conducted to examine similarities and divergences in methodologies, scenario storylines, macroeconomic drivers and assumptions as well as aggregate energy and emission scenario results. Besides directly tracing different energy and CO{sub 2} savings potential back to the underlying strategies and combination of efficiency and abatement policy instruments represented by each scenario, this analysis also had other important but often overlooked findings.« less

Integrating algaculture into small wastewater treatment plants: process flow options and life cycle impacts.

PubMed

Steele, Muriel M; Anctil, Annick; Ladner, David A

2014-05-01

Algaculture has the potential to be a sustainable option for nutrient removal at wastewater treatment plants. The purpose of this study was to compare the environmental impacts of three likely algaculture integration strategies to a conventional nutrient removal strategy. Process modeling was used to determine life cycle inventory data and a comparative life cycle assessment was used to determine environmental impacts. Treatment scenarios included a base case treatment plant without nutrient removal, a plant with conventional nutrient removal, and three other cases with algal unit processes placed at the head of the plant, in a side stream, and at the end of the plant, respectively. Impact categories included eutrophication, global warming, ecotoxicity, and primary energy demand. Integrating algaculture prior to activated sludge proved to be most beneficial of the scenarios considered for all impact categories; however, this scenario would also require primary sedimentation and impacts of that unit process should be considered for implementation of such a system.

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

2012-01-01

The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

Temporal and spatial distribution of global mitigation cost: INDCs and equity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jing-Yu; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko

2016-11-01

Each country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) pledges an emission target for 2025 or 2030. Here, we evaluated the INDC inter-generational and inter-regional equity by comparing scenarios with INDC emissions target in 2030 and with an immediate emission reduction associated with a global uniform carbon price using Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium. Both scenarios eventually achieve 2 °C target. The results showed that, as compared with an immediate emission reduction scenario, the inter-generational equity status is not favorable for INDC scenario and the future generation suffers more from delayed mitigation. Moreover, this conclusion was robust to the wide range of inequality aversion parameter that determines discount rate. On the other hand, the INDC scenario has better inter-regional equity in the early part of the century than does the immediate emission reduction scenario in which we assume a global carbon price during the period up to 2030. However, inter-regional equity worsens later in the century. The additional emissions reduction to the INDC in 2030 would improve both inter- and inter-regional equity as compared to the current INDC. We also suggest that countries should commit to more emissions reductions in the follow-up INDC communications and that continuous consideration for low-income countries is needed for global climate change cooperation after 2030.

Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

DOE PAGES

Markandya, Anil; Sampedro, Jon; Smith, Steven J.; ...

2018-03-02

While the co-benefits from addressing both climate change and air pollution related problems have been clearly recognized, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative scenarios to reduce greenhouse gases. This study analyses the extent to which the health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of Paris Agreement (2ºC and 1·5ºC) under different scenarios where the emissions abatement effort is shared between countries according to three established equity criteria.

Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Markandya, Anil; Sampedro, Jon; Smith, Steven J.

While the co-benefits from addressing both climate change and air pollution related problems have been clearly recognized, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative scenarios to reduce greenhouse gases. This study analyses the extent to which the health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of Paris Agreement (2ºC and 1·5ºC) under different scenarios where the emissions abatement effort is shared between countries according to three established equity criteria.

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison of the Glidescope®, flexible fibreoptic intubating bronchoscope, iPhone modified bronchoscope, and the Macintosh laryngoscope in normal and difficult airways: a manikin study.

PubMed

Langley, Adrian; Mar Fan, Gabriel

2014-02-28

Smart phone technology is becoming increasingly integrated into medical care.Our study compared an iPhone modified flexible fibreoptic bronchoscope as an intubation aid and clinical teaching tool with an unmodified bronchoscope, Glidescope® and Macintosh laryngoscope in a simulated normal and difficult airway scenario. Sixty three anaesthesia providers, 21 consultant anaesthetists, 21 registrars and 21 anaesthetic nurses attempted to intubate a MegaCode Kelly™ manikin, comparing a normal and difficult airway scenario for each device. Primary endpoints were time to view the vocal cords (TVC), time to successful intubation (TSI) and number of failed intubations with each device. Secondary outcomes included participant rated device usability and preference for each scenario. Advantages and disadvantages of the iPhone modified bronchoscope were also discussed. There was no significant difference in TVC with the iPhone modified bronchoscope compared with the Macintosh blade (P = 1.0) or unmodified bronchoscope (P = 0.155). TVC was significantly shorter with the Glidescope compared with the Macintosh blade (P < 0.001), iPhone (P < 0.001) and unmodified bronchoscope (P = 0.011). The iPhone bronchoscope TSI was significantly longer than all other devices (P < 0.001). There was no difference between anaesthetic consultant or registrar TVC (P = 1.0) or TSI (P = 0.252), with both being less than the nurses (P < 0.001). Consultant anaesthetists and nurses had a higher intubation failure rate with the iPhone modified bronchoscope compared with the registrars. Although more difficult to use, similar proportions of consultants (14/21), registrars (15/21) and nurses (15/21) indicated that they would be prepared to use the iPhone modified bronchoscope in their clinical practice. The Glidescope was rated easiest to use (P < 0.001) and was the preferred device by all participants for the difficult airway scenario. The iPhone modified bronchoscope, in its current configuration, was found to be more difficult to use compared with the Glidescope® and unmodified bronchoscope; however it offered several advantages for teaching fibreoptic intubation technique when video-assisted bronchoscopy was unavailable.

MARKAL SCENARIO ANALYSES OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC SECTOR: THE IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY

EPA Science Inventory

This report provides a general overview of EPA’s national MARKAL database and energy systems model and compares various scenarios to a business as usual baseline scenario. Under baseline assumptions, total electricity use increases 1.3% annually until 2030. Annual growth in ele...

Is phytoremediation without biomass valorization sustainable? - comparative LCA of landfilling vs. anaerobic co-digestion.

PubMed

Vigil, Miguel; Marey-Pérez, Manuel F; Martinez Huerta, Gemma; Álvarez Cabal, Valeriano

2015-02-01

This study examines the sustainability of phytoremediation for soils contaminated with heavy metals, especially the influence of management of the produced metal-enriched biomass on the environmental performance of the complete system. We examine a case study in Asturias (north of Spain), where the land was polluted with Pb by diffuse emissions from an adjacent steelmaking factory. A Phytoremediation scenario based on this case was assessed by performing a comparative life cycle assessment and by applying the multi-impact assessment method ReCiPe. Our Baseline scenario used the produced biomass as feedstock for an anaerobic digester that produces biogas, which is later upgraded cryogenically. The Baseline scenario was compared with two alternative scenarios: one considers depositing the produced biomass into landfill, and the other considers excavating the contaminated soil, disposing it in a landfill, and refilling the site with pristine soil. A sensitivity analysis was performed using different yields of biomass and biogas, and using different distances between site and biomass valorization/disposal center. Our results show that the impacts caused during agricultural activities and biomass valorization were compensated by the production of synthetic natural gas and the avoided impact of natural gas production. In addition, it was found that if the produced biomass was not valorized, the sustainability of phytoremediation is questionable. The distance between the site and the biomass processing center is not a major factor for determining the technology's sustainability, providing distances are less than 200-300 km. However, distance to landfill or to the source of pristine soil is a key factor when deciding to use phytoremediation or other ex-situ conventional remediation techniques. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of microalgae as biodiesel feedstock in a tropical setting: Economics, agro-energy competitiveness, and potential impacts on regional agricultural feedstock production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boll, Matias G.

The objective of this study is to obtain a realistic evaluation of the potential role of microalgae as a biodiesel feedstock in a tropical setting. First, microalgae economics are estimated, including the detailed design of a 400 ha microalgae open pond production farm together with the microalgae biomass and crude oil production costs calculations. Sensitivity analysis and a stochastic evaluation of the microalgae venture chances for profit are also included. Next, microalgae potential for biodiesel production is compared to traditional oil crops such as soybeans and African palm. This comparison is performed using the Northeast Region (NER) of Brazil as background. Six potential biodiesel feedstock sources produced in the NER and microalgae are compared considering selected environmental, economic and social sustainability indicators. Finally, in the third chapter, the study proposes a cropland allocation model for the NER. The model aims to offer insights to the decision maker concerning biofuel development strategies and their impact on regional agricultural feedstock production. In the model, cropland allocation among three agriculture feedstock sectors, namely staple food, commodity export and biofuel is optimized through the use of the multiple objective technique referred to as compromise programming (CP). Our results indicate a projected microalgae total production cost of R 78,359 ha-1 (US43,533), which has a breakdown as follows: R 34,133 ha-1 (US18,963) for operating costs and R 44,226 ha-1 (US24,570) for overhead (ownership) costs. Our stochastic analysis indicates that microalgae production under the conditions assumed in the baseline scenario of this study has a 0% chance to present a positive NPV for a microalgae crude oil price of R 1.86. This price corresponds to an international oil price around US 77 bbl-1. To obtain a reasonable investment return (IRR = 12%) from the microalgae farm, an international oil price as high as US 461 bbl-1 is required. Despite the advantage of using about 14 times less cropland area (0.13 ha boe-1 ), microalgae presented significant disadvantages as compared to some of the traditional oil crops. Among these is the significant amount of N fertilizer and water demanded by microalgae production, namely 205 kg and 4,990 boe -1, about 132% and 30% higher than the second highest value among the crops compared in this study, respectively. Optimized CP scenarios expanded annual cropland allocation to 14.58 million ha in the NER, year 2017, compared to 11.04 and 12.81 million ha in current (2007) and baseline (2017) scenarios, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, cropland expansions allied to the shift of the commodities export dedicated cropland to the biofuel production sector in CP scenarios significantly increased the NER fuel autonomy (95%) and reduced its R 5,126 million reais deficit baseline comprehensive feedstock trade balance by 79%. Contrary to the concerns usually referred to biofuel development, our model indicates that in the NER case, it is the commodity export, rather than the staple food agriculture feedstock production sector, that is mostly affected by the biofuel cropland allocation demand. When compared to traditional oil crops, microalgae-based biodiesel scenarios could not significantly improve regional staple food autonomy, increasing this objective by 1% only. The NER fuel autonomy, in its turn, is positively impacted in the microalgae scenarios, but the increment as compared to the traditional oil crops is rather small, namely 2% and 7% in the B5 and B10 levels, respectively. These results indicate that the potential advantages expected for the microalgae-based biodiesel introduction did not materialize for the NER. It is concluded that the adoption of microalgae-based biodiesel is not an interesting biofuel alternative for the NER of Brazil for the next ten years.

Valuing ecosystem and economic services across land-use scenarios in the Prairie Pothole Regions of the Dakotas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gascoigne, William R.; Hoag, Dana; Koontz, Lynne; Tangen, Brian A.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gleason, Robert A.

2011-01-01

This study uses biophysical values derived for the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North and South Dakota, in conjunction with value transfer methods, to assess environmental and economic tradeoffs under different policy-relevant land-use scenarios over a 20-year period. The ecosystem service valuation is carried out by comparing the biophysical and economic values of three focal services (i.e. carbon sequestration, reduction in sedimentation, and waterfowl production) across three focal land uses in the region [i.e. native prairie grasslands, lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve and Wetlands Reserve Programs (CRP/WRP), and cropland]. This study finds that CRP/WRP lands cannot mitigate (hectare for hectare) the loss of native prairie from a social welfare standpoint. Land use scenarios where native prairie loss was minimized, and CRP/WRP lands were increased, provided the most societal benefit. The scenario modeling projected native prairie conversion to cropland over the next 20 years would result in a social welfare loss valued at over $4 billion when considering the study's three ecosystem services, and a net loss of about $3.4 billion when reductions in commodity production are accounted for.

Full cost accounting as a tool for the financial assessment of Pay-As-You-Throw schemes: a case study for the Panorama municipality, Greece.

PubMed

Karagiannidis, Avraam; Xirogiannopoulou, Anna; Tchobanoglous, George

2008-12-01

In the present paper, implementation scenarios of a Pay-As-You-Throw program were developed and analyzed for the first time in Greece. Firstly, the necessary steps for implementing a Pay-As-You-Throw program were determined. A database was developed for the needs of the full cost accounting method, where all financial and waste-production data were inserted, in order to calculate the unit price of charging for four different implementation scenarios of the "polluter-pays" principle. For each scenario, the input in waste management cost was estimated, as well as the total waste charges for households. Finally, a comparative analysis of the results was performed.

A High-Fidelity Virtual Environment for the Study of Paranoia

PubMed Central

Broome, Matthew R.; Zányi, Eva; Selmanovic, Elmedin; Czanner, Silvester; Birchwood, Max; Chalmers, Alan; Singh, Swaran P.

2013-01-01

Psychotic disorders carry social and economic costs for sufferers and society. Recent evidence highlights the risk posed by urban upbringing and social deprivation in the genesis of paranoia and psychosis. Evidence based psychological interventions are often not offered because of a lack of therapists. Virtual reality (VR) environments have been used to treat mental health problems. VR may be a way of understanding the aetiological processes in psychosis and increasing psychotherapeutic resources for its treatment. We developed a high-fidelity virtual reality scenario of an urban street scene to test the hypothesis that virtual urban exposure is able to generate paranoia to a comparable or greater extent than scenarios using indoor scenes. Participants (n = 32) entered the VR scenario for four minutes, after which time their degree of paranoid ideation was assessed. We demonstrated that the virtual reality scenario was able to elicit paranoia in a nonclinical, healthy group and that an urban scene was more likely to lead to higher levels of paranoia than a virtual indoor environment. We suggest that this study offers evidence to support the role of exposure to factors in the urban environment in the genesis and maintenance of psychotic experiences and symptoms. The realistic high-fidelity street scene scenario may offer a useful tool for therapists. PMID:24455255

Diversity modelling for electrical power system simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharip, R. M.; Abu Zarim, M. A. U. A.

2013-12-01

This paper considers diversity of generation and demand profiles against the different future energy scenarios and evaluates these on a technical basis. Compared to previous studies, this research applied a forecasting concept based on possible growth rates from publically electrical distribution scenarios concerning the UK. These scenarios were created by different bodies considering aspects such as environment, policy, regulation, economic and technical. In line with these scenarios, forecasting is on a long term timescale (up to every ten years from 2020 until 2050) in order to create a possible output of generation mix and demand profiles to be used as an appropriate boundary condition for the network simulation. The network considered is a segment of rural LV populated with a mixture of different housing types. The profiles for the 'future' energy and demand have been successfully modelled by applying a forecasting method. The network results under these profiles shows for the cases studied that even though the value of the power produced from each Micro-generation is often in line with the demand requirements of an individual dwelling there will be no problems arising from high penetration of Micro-generation and demand side management for each dwellings considered. The results obtained highlight the technical issues/changes for energy delivery and management to rural customers under the future energy scenarios.

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

A high-fidelity virtual environment for the study of paranoia.

PubMed

Broome, Matthew R; Zányi, Eva; Hamborg, Thomas; Selmanovic, Elmedin; Czanner, Silvester; Birchwood, Max; Chalmers, Alan; Singh, Swaran P

2013-01-01

Psychotic disorders carry social and economic costs for sufferers and society. Recent evidence highlights the risk posed by urban upbringing and social deprivation in the genesis of paranoia and psychosis. Evidence based psychological interventions are often not offered because of a lack of therapists. Virtual reality (VR) environments have been used to treat mental health problems. VR may be a way of understanding the aetiological processes in psychosis and increasing psychotherapeutic resources for its treatment. We developed a high-fidelity virtual reality scenario of an urban street scene to test the hypothesis that virtual urban exposure is able to generate paranoia to a comparable or greater extent than scenarios using indoor scenes. Participants (n = 32) entered the VR scenario for four minutes, after which time their degree of paranoid ideation was assessed. We demonstrated that the virtual reality scenario was able to elicit paranoia in a nonclinical, healthy group and that an urban scene was more likely to lead to higher levels of paranoia than a virtual indoor environment. We suggest that this study offers evidence to support the role of exposure to factors in the urban environment in the genesis and maintenance of psychotic experiences and symptoms. The realistic high-fidelity street scene scenario may offer a useful tool for therapists.

The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

PubMed Central

Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study.

PubMed

Hansen, Kaj M; Christensen, Jesper H; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-09-10

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition.

Technical, hygiene, economic, and life cycle assessment of full-scale moving bed biofilm reactors for wastewater treatment in India.

PubMed

Singh, Anju; Kamble, Sheetal Jaisingh; Sawant, Megha; Chakravarthy, Yogita; Kazmi, Absar; Aymerich, Enrique; Starkl, Markus; Ghangrekar, Makarand; Philip, Ligy

2018-01-01

Moving bed biofilm reactor (MBBR) is a highly effective biological treatment process applied to treat both urban and industrial wastewaters in developing countries. The present study investigated the technical performance of ten full-scale MBBR systems located across India. The biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solid, pathogens, and nutrient removal efficiencies were low as compared to the values claimed in literature. Plant 1 was considered for evaluation of environmental impacts using life cycle assessment approach. CML 2 baseline 2000 methodology was adopted, in which 11 impact categories were considered. The life cycle impact assessment results revealed that the main environmental hot spot of this system was energy consumption. Additionally, two scenarios were compared: scenario 1 (direct discharge of treated effluent, i.e., no reuse) and scenario 2 (effluent reuse and tap water replacement). The results showed that scenario 2 significantly reduce the environmental impact in all the categories ultimately decreasing the environmental burden. Moreover, significant economic and environmental benefits can be obtained in scenario 2 by replacing the freshwater demand for non-potable uses. To enhance the performance of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), there is a need to optimize energy consumption and increase wastewater collection efficiency to maximize the operating capacity of plant and minimize overall environmental footprint. It was concluded that MBBR can be a good alternative for upgrading and optimizing existing municipal wastewater treatment plants with appropriate tertiary treatment. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

The dynamical origin of multiple populations in intermediate-age clusters in the Magellanic Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Jongsuk; de Grijs, Richard; Askar, Abbas; Berczik, Peter; Li, Chengyuan; Wang, Long; Deng, Licai; Kouwenhoven, M. B. N.; Giersz, Mirek; Spurzem, Rainer

2017-11-01

Numerical simulations were carried out to study the origin of multiple stellar populations in the intermediate-age clusters NGC 411 and NGC 1806 in the Magellanic Clouds. We performed NBODY6++ simulations based on two different formation scenarios, an ad hoc formation model where second-generation (SG) stars are formed inside a cluster of first-generation (FG) stars using the gas accumulated from the external intergalactic medium and a minor merger model of unequal mass (MSG/MFG ∼ 5-10 per cent) clusters with an age difference of a few hundred million years. We compared our results such as the radial profile of the SG-to-FG number ratio with observations on the assumption that the SG stars in the observations are composed of cluster members, and confirmed that both the ad hoc formation and merger scenarios reproduce the observed radial trend of the SG-to-FG number ratio, which shows less centrally concentrated SG than FG stars. It is difficult to constrain the formation scenario for the multiple populations by only using the spatial distribution of the SG stars. SG stars originating from the merger scenario show a significant velocity anisotropy and rotational features compared to those from the ad hoc formation scenario. Thus, observations aimed at kinematic properties like velocity anisotropy or rotational velocities for SG stars should be obtained to better understand the formation of the multiple populations in these clusters. This is, however, beyond current instrumentation capabilities.

Comparative techno-economic assessment and LCA of selected integrated sugarcane-based biorefineries.

PubMed

Gnansounou, Edgard; Vaskan, Pavel; Pachón, Elia Ruiz

2015-11-01

This work addresses the economic and environmental performance of integrated biorefineries based on sugarcane juice and residues. Four multiproduct scenarios were considered; two from sugar mills and the others from ethanol distilleries. They are integrated biorefineries producing first (1G) and second (2G) generation ethanol, sugar, molasses (for animal feed) and electricity in the context of Brazil. The scenarios were analysed and compared using techno-economic value-based approach and LCA methodology. The results show that the best economic configuration is provided by a scenario with largest ethanol production while the best environmental performance is presented by a scenario with full integration sugar - 1G2G ethanol production. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projection of global terrestrial nitrous oxide emission using future scenarios of climate and land-use management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inatomi, M. I.; Ito, A.

2016-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O), with a centennial mean residence time in the atmosphere, is one of the most remarkable greenhouse gases. Because natural and anthropogenic emissions make comparable contributions, we need to take account of different sources of N2O such as natural soils and fertilizer in croplands to predict the future emission change and to discuss its mitigation. In this study, we conduct a series of simulations of future change in nitrous oxide emission from terrestrial ecosystems using a process-based model, VISIT. We assume a couple of scenarios of future climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, fertilizer input, and land-use change. In particular, we develop a new scenario of cropland fertilizer input on the basis of changes in crop productivity and fertilizer production cost. Expansion of biofuel crop production is considered but in a simplified manner (e.g., a specific fraction of pasture conversion to biofuel cultivation). Regional and temporal aspects of N2O emission are investigated and compared with previous studies. Finally, we make discussions, on the basis of simulated results, about the high-end of N2O emission, mitigation options, and impact of fertilizer input.

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

A Cost-Utility Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in Australia.

PubMed

Keller, Andrew; Gericke, Christian; Whitty, Jennifer A; Yaxley, John; Kua, Boon; Coughlin, Geoff; Gianduzzo, Troy

2017-02-01

The Göteborg randomised population-based prostate cancer screening trial demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening reduces prostate cancer deaths compared with an age-matched control group. Utilising the prostate cancer detection rates from this study, we investigated the clinical and cost effectiveness of a similar PSA-based screening strategy for an Australian population of men aged 50-69 years. A decision model that incorporated Markov processes was developed from a health system perspective. The base-case scenario compared a population-based screening programme with current opportunistic screening practices. Costs, utility values, treatment patterns and background mortality rates were derived from Australian data. All costs were adjusted to reflect July 2015 Australian dollars (A$). An alternative scenario compared systematic with opportunistic screening but with optimisation of active surveillance (AS) uptake in both groups. A discount rate of 5 % for costs and benefits was utilised. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of variable uncertainty on model outcomes. Our model very closely replicated the number of deaths from both prostate cancer and background mortality in the Göteborg study. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for PSA screening was A$147,528. However, for years of life gained (LYGs), PSA-based screening (A$45,890/LYG) appeared more favourable. Our alternative scenario with optimised AS improved cost utility to A$45,881/QALY, with screening becoming cost effective at a 92 % AS uptake rate. Both modelled scenarios were most sensitive to the utility of patients before and after intervention, and the discount rate used. PSA-based screening is not cost effective compared with Australia's assumed willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/QALY. It appears more cost effective if LYGs are used as the relevant outcome, and is more cost effective than the established Australian breast cancer screening programme on this basis. Optimised utilisation of AS increases the cost effectiveness of prostate cancer screening dramatically.

Performance assessment of multi-frequency processing of ICU chest images for enhanced visualization of tubes and catheters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaohui; Couwenhoven, Mary E.; Foos, David H.; Doran, James; Yankelevitz, David F.; Henschke, Claudia I.

2008-03-01

An image-processing method has been developed to improve the visibility of tube and catheter features in portable chest x-ray (CXR) images captured in the intensive care unit (ICU). The image-processing method is based on a multi-frequency approach, wherein the input image is decomposed into different spatial frequency bands, and those bands that contain the tube and catheter signals are individually enhanced by nonlinear boosting functions. Using a random sampling strategy, 50 cases were retrospectively selected for the study from a large database of portable CXR images that had been collected from multiple institutions over a two-year period. All images used in the study were captured using photo-stimulable, storage phosphor computed radiography (CR) systems. Each image was processed two ways. The images were processed with default image processing parameters such as those used in clinical settings (control). The 50 images were then separately processed using the new tube and catheter enhancement algorithm (test). Three board-certified radiologists participated in a reader study to assess differences in both detection-confidence performance and diagnostic efficiency between the control and test images. Images were evaluated on a diagnostic-quality, 3-megapixel monochrome monitor. Two scenarios were studied: the baseline scenario, representative of today's workflow (a single-control image presented with the window/level adjustments enabled) vs. the test scenario (a control/test image pair presented with a toggle enabled and the window/level settings disabled). The radiologists were asked to read the images in each scenario as they normally would for clinical diagnosis. Trend analysis indicates that the test scenario offers improved reading efficiency while providing as good or better detection capability compared to the baseline scenario.

Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2007-08-01

The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain.

PubMed

Ortiz, O; Pasqualino, J C; Castells, F

2010-04-01

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in terms of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental performance of construction waste: Comparing three scenarios from a case study in Catalonia, Spain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortiz, O., E-mail: oscarortiz@unipamplona.edu.c; University of Pamplona, Department of Industrial Engineering, Km 1 Via Bucaramanga, Pamplona, N de S; Pasqualino, J.C.

2010-04-15

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate environmental impacts of construction wastes in terms of the LIFE 98 ENV/E/351 project. Construction wastes are classified in accordance with the Life Program Environment Directive of the European Commission. Three different scenarios to current waste management from a case study in Catalonia (Spain) have been compared: landfilling, recycling and incineration, and these scenarios were evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. The recommendations of the Catalan Waste Catalogue and the European Waste Catalogue have been taken into account. Also, the influence of transport has been evaluated. Results show that in termsmore » of the Global Warming Potential, the most environmentally friendly treatment was recycling, followed by incineration and lastly landfilling. According to the influence of treatment plants location on the GWP indicator, we observe that incineration and recycling of construction wastes are better than landfilling, even for long distances from the building site to the plants. This is true for most wastes except for the stony types, than should be recycled close to the building site. In summary, data from construction waste of a Catalan case study was evaluated using the well established method of LCA to determine the environmental impacts.« less

Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Thomason, Study Co-Lead Zachary S. Rabold, Sub-Task Lead Ylli Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario... Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual iii Preface This document reports the...vii Appendices A. Identifying Scenario Components...........................................................A-1 B . Acronyms

Futurescapes: evidence expectations in the USA for comparative effectiveness research for drugs in 2020.

PubMed

Messner, Donna A; Mohr, Penny; Towse, Adrian

2015-08-01

Explore key factors influencing future expectations for the production of evidence from comparative effectiveness research for drugs in the USA in 2020 and construct three plausible future scenarios. Semistructured key informant interviews and three rounds of modified Delphi with systematic scenario-building methods. Most influential key factors were: health delivery system integration; electronic health record development; exploitation of very large databases and mixed data sources; and proactive patient engagement in research. The scenario deemed most likely entailed uneven development of large integrated health systems with pockets of increased provider risk for patient care, enhanced data collection systems, changing incentives to do comparative effectiveness research and new opportunities for evidence generation partnerships.

Finite Element Analysis of Patella Alta: A Patellofemoral Instability Model.

PubMed

Watson, Nicole A; Duchman, Kyle R; Grosland, Nicole M; Bollier, Matthew J

2017-01-01

This study aims to provide biomechanical data on the effect of patella height in the setting of medial patellofemoral ligament (MPFL) reconstruction using finite element analysis. The study will also examine patellofemoral joint biomechanics using variable femoral insertion sites for MPFL reconstruction. A previously validated finite element knee model was modified to study patella alta and baja by translating the patella a given distance to achieve each patella height ratio. Additionally, the models were modified to study various femoral insertion sites of the MPFL (anatomic, anterior, proximal, and distal) for each patella height model, resulting in 32 unique scenarios available for investigation. In the setting of patella alta, the patellofemoral contact area decreased, resulting in a subsequent increase in maximum patellofemoral contact pressures as compared to the scenarios with normal patellar height. Additionally, patella alta resulted in decreased lateral restraining forces in the native knee scenario as well as following MPFL reconstruction. Changing femoral insertion sites had a variable effect on patellofemoral contact pressures; however, distal and anterior femoral tunnel malpositioning in the setting of patella alta resulted in grossly elevated maximum patellofemoral contact pressures as compared to other scenarios. Patella alta after MPFL reconstruction results in decreased lateral restraining forces and patellofemoral contact area and increased maximum patellofemoral contact pressures. When the femoral MPFL tunnel is malpositioned anteriorly or distally on the femur, the maximum patellofemoral contact pressures increase with severity of patella alta. When evaluating patients with patellofemoral instability, it is important to recognize patella alta as a potential aggravating factor. Failure to address patella alta in the setting of MPFL femoral tunnel malposition may result in even further increases in patellofemoral contact pressures, making it essential to optimize intraoperative techniques to confirm anatomic MPFL femoral tunnel positioning.

Finite Element Analysis of Patella Alta: A Patellofemoral Instability Model

PubMed Central

Duchman, Kyle R.; Grosland, Nicole M.; Bollier, Matthew J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: This study aims to provide biomechanical data on the effect of patella height in the setting of medial patellofemoral ligament (MPFL) reconstruction using finite element analysis. The study will also examine patellofemoral joint biomechanics using variable femoral insertion sites for MPFL reconstruction. Methods: A previously validated finite element knee model was modified to study patella alta and baja by translating the patella a given distance to achieve each patella height ratio. Additionally, the models were modified to study various femoral insertion sites of the MPFL (anatomic, anterior, proximal, and distal) for each patella height model, resulting in 32 unique scenarios available for investigation. Results: In the setting of patella alta, the patellofemoral contact area decreased, resulting in a subsequent increase in maximum patellofemoral contact pressures as compared to the scenarios with normal patellar height. Additionally, patella alta resulted in decreased lateral restraining forces in the native knee scenario as well as following MPFL reconstruction. Changing femoral insertion sites had a variable effect on patellofemoral contact pressures; however, distal and anterior femoral tunnel malpositioning in the setting of patella alta resulted in grossly elevated maximum patellofemoral contact pressures as compared to other scenarios. Conclusions: Patella alta after MPFL reconstruction results in decreased lateral restraining forces and patellofemoral contact area and increased maximum patellofemoral contact pressures. When the femoral MPFL tunnel is malpositioned anteriorly or distally on the femur, the maximum patellofemoral contact pressures increase with severity of patella alta. Clinical Relevance: When evaluating patients with patellofemoral instability, it is important to recognize patella alta as a potential aggravating factor. Failure to address patella alta in the setting of MPFL femoral tunnel malposition may result in even further increases in patellofemoral contact pressures, making it essential to optimize intraoperative techniques to confirm anatomic MPFL femoral tunnel positioning. PMID:28852343

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands

PubMed Central

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E.; Fox, Garey A.

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002–2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands. PMID:28792541

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands.

PubMed

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E; Fox, Garey A

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002-2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands.

Polio immunization policy in Mexico: economic assessment of current practice and future alternatives.

PubMed

Mascareñas, A; Salinas, J; Tasset-Tisseau, A; Mascareñas, C; Khan, M M

2005-06-01

The World Health Organization recommends that all children aged less than 5 years should be vaccinated against polio through intensive immunization programmes as well as routine immunization. A national immunization week (NIW) was held in February 2002 in the Monterrey district of Mexico. A prospective micro-costing study was conducted to measure the total cost to the state of the NIW, the cost profile, and the ratio of cost per immunization contact to cost per dose of oral polio vaccine (OPV), and to compare OPV and inactive polio vaccine (IPV) in economic terms. Two scenarios were used as the basis for calculation. The cost of volunteers was excluded from the "lower-cost scenario" and included in the "upper-cost scenario". The total cost of the NIW was USD 100,454 for the lower-cost scenario and USD 156,614 for the upper-cost scenario. The major part of the costs was personnel costs (67.30 and 77.53% of the total costs in the lower- and upper-cost scenario, respectively). The ratio of cost per immunization contact to cost per dose of OPV was 6.45 for the lower-cost scenario and 10.05 for the upper-cost scenario. Changing from the current OPV-based intensive and routine schedule to a sequential IPV-OPV routine schedule would save USD 14.52 per vaccinated child, and changing to a full IPV routine schedule would save USD 9.41 per vaccinated child.

On the Control of Solute Mass Fluxes and Concentrations Below Fields Irrigated With Low-Quality Water: A Numerical Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, David

2017-11-01

The main goal of this study was to test the capability of irrigation water-based and soil-based approaches to control nitrate and chloride mass fluxes and concentrations below the root zone of agricultural fields irrigated with treated waste water (TWW). Using numerical simulations of flow and transport in relatively a fine-textured, unsaturated, spatially heterogeneous, flow domain, scenarios examined include: (i) irrigating with TWW only (REF); (ii) irrigation water is substituted between TWW and desalinized water (ADW); (iii) soil includes a capillary barrier (CB) and irrigating with TWW only (CB + TWW); and (iv) combination of (ii) and a CB (CB + ADW). Considering groundwater quality protection, plausible goals are: (i) to minimize solute discharges leaving the root zone, and, (ii) to maximize the probability that solute concentrations leaving the root zone will not exceed a prescribed, critical value. Results of the analyses suggest that in the case of a seasonal crop (a corn field) subject to irrigations only, with respect to the first goal, the CB + TWW and CB + ADW scenarios provide similar, excellent results, better than the ADW scenario; with respect to the second goal, however, the CB + ADW scenario gave substantially better results than the CB + TWW scenario. In the case a multiyear, perennial crop (a citrus orchard), subject to a sequence of irrigation and rainfall periods, for both solutes, and, particularly, nitrate, with respect to the two goals, both the ADW and CB + ADW scenarios perform better than the CB + TWW scenario. As compared with the REF and CB + TWW scenarios, the ADW and CB + ADW scenarios substantially reduce nitrogen mass fluxes to the groundwater and to the atmosphere, and, essentially, did not reduce nitrogen mass fluxes to the trees. Similar results, even better, were demonstrated for a relatively coarse-textured, spatially heterogeneous soil.

Planetary boundary layer height from CALIOP compared to radiosonde over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wanchun; Guo, Jianping; Miao, Yucong; Liu, Huan; Zhang, Yong; Li, Zhengqiang; Zhai, Panmao

2016-08-01

Accurate estimation of planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is key to air quality prediction, weather forecast, and assessment of regional climate change. The PBLH retrieval from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) is expected to complement ground-based measurements due to the broad spatial coverage of satellites. In this study, CALIOP PBLHs are derived from combination of Haar wavelet and maximum variance techniques, and are further validated against PBLHs estimated from ground-based lidar at Beijing and Jinhua. Correlation coefficients between PBLHs from ground- and satellite-based lidars are 0.59 at Beijing and 0.65 at Jinhua. Also, the PBLH climatology from CALIOP and radiosonde are compiled over China during the period from 2011 to 2014. Maximum CALIOP-derived PBLH can be seen in summer as compared to lower values in other seasons. Three matchup scenarios are proposed according to the position of each radiosonde site relative to its closest CALIPSO ground tracks. For each scenario, intercomparisons were performed between CALIOP- and radiosonde-derived PBLHs, and scenario 2 is found to be better than other scenarios using difference as the criteria. In early summer afternoon over 70 % of the total radiosonde sites have PBLH values ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 km. Overall, CALIOP-derived PBLHs are well consistent with radiosonde-derived PBLHs. To our knowledge, this study is the first intercomparison of PBLH on a large scale using the radiosonde network of China, shedding important light on the data quality of initial CALIOP-derived PBLH results.

Comparing brain graphs in which nodes are regions of interest or independent components: A simulation study.

PubMed

Yu, Qingbao; Du, Yuhui; Chen, Jiayu; He, Hao; Sui, Jing; Pearlson, Godfrey; Calhoun, Vince D

2017-11-01

A key challenge in building a brain graph using fMRI data is how to define the nodes. Spatial brain components estimated by independent components analysis (ICA) and regions of interest (ROIs) determined by brain atlas are two popular methods to define nodes in brain graphs. It is difficult to evaluate which method is better in real fMRI data. Here we perform a simulation study and evaluate the accuracies of a few graph metrics in graphs with nodes of ICA components, ROIs, or modified ROIs in four simulation scenarios. Graph measures with ICA nodes are more accurate than graphs with ROI nodes in all cases. Graph measures with modified ROI nodes are modulated by artifacts. The correlations of graph metrics across subjects between graphs with ICA nodes and ground truth are higher than the correlations between graphs with ROI nodes and ground truth in scenarios with large overlapped spatial sources. Moreover, moving the location of ROIs would largely decrease the correlations in all scenarios. Evaluating graphs with different nodes is promising in simulated data rather than real data because different scenarios can be simulated and measures of different graphs can be compared with a known ground truth. Since ROIs defined using brain atlas may not correspond well to real functional boundaries, overall findings of this work suggest that it is more appropriate to define nodes using data-driven ICA than ROI approaches in real fMRI data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Study of Effects of MultiCollinearity in the Multivariable Analysis

PubMed Central

Yoo, Wonsuk; Mayberry, Robert; Bae, Sejong; Singh, Karan; (Peter) He, Qinghua; Lillard, James W.

2015-01-01

A multivariable analysis is the most popular approach when investigating associations between risk factors and disease. However, efficiency of multivariable analysis highly depends on correlation structure among predictive variables. When the covariates in the model are not independent one another, collinearity/multicollinearity problems arise in the analysis, which leads to biased estimation. This work aims to perform a simulation study with various scenarios of different collinearity structures to investigate the effects of collinearity under various correlation structures amongst predictive and explanatory variables and to compare these results with existing guidelines to decide harmful collinearity. Three correlation scenarios among predictor variables are considered: (1) bivariate collinear structure as the most simple collinearity case, (2) multivariate collinear structure where an explanatory variable is correlated with two other covariates, (3) a more realistic scenario when an independent variable can be expressed by various functions including the other variables. PMID:25664257

A Study of Effects of MultiCollinearity in the Multivariable Analysis.

PubMed

Yoo, Wonsuk; Mayberry, Robert; Bae, Sejong; Singh, Karan; Peter He, Qinghua; Lillard, James W

2014-10-01

A multivariable analysis is the most popular approach when investigating associations between risk factors and disease. However, efficiency of multivariable analysis highly depends on correlation structure among predictive variables. When the covariates in the model are not independent one another, collinearity/multicollinearity problems arise in the analysis, which leads to biased estimation. This work aims to perform a simulation study with various scenarios of different collinearity structures to investigate the effects of collinearity under various correlation structures amongst predictive and explanatory variables and to compare these results with existing guidelines to decide harmful collinearity. Three correlation scenarios among predictor variables are considered: (1) bivariate collinear structure as the most simple collinearity case, (2) multivariate collinear structure where an explanatory variable is correlated with two other covariates, (3) a more realistic scenario when an independent variable can be expressed by various functions including the other variables.

Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.; Galloway, Joel M.; Miller, Lisa D.; Mau, David P.

2008-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Bureau of Reclamation is working to meet its goal to issue a Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on the Southern Delivery System project (SDS). SDS is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various EIS alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated water into the reservoir. Plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (water years 2000 through 2002) were compared to the No Action scenario (projected demands in 2046) to assess changes in water quality over time. All scenario modeling used an external nutrient-decay model to simulate degradation and assimilation of nutrients along the riverine reach upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Reservoir modeling was conducted using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional water-quality model. Lake hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, algal biomass, and total iron were simulated. Two reservoir site locations were selected for comparison. Results of simulations at site 3B were characteristic of a riverine environment in the reservoir while results at site 7B (near the dam) were characteristic of the main body of the reservoir. Simulation results for the epilimnion and hypolimnion at these two sites also were evaluated and compared. The simulation results in the hypolimnion at site 7B were indicative of the water quality leaving the reservoir. Comparisons of the different scenario results were conducted to assess if substantial differences were observed between selected scenarios. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle (water years 2000 through 2002). Additionally, each selected simulation scenario was evaluated for differences in direct- and cumulative-effects on a particular scenario. Direct effects are intended to isolate the future effects of the scenarios. Cumulative effects are intended to evaluate the effects of the scenarios in conjunction with all reasonably foreseeable future activities in the study area. Comparisons between the direct- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that there were not large differences in the results between most of the simulation scenarios and, as such, the focus of this report was on results for the direct-effects analysis. Addi

Revised Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.; Miller, Lisa D.

2009-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Southern Delivery System (SDS) project is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated wastewater into the reservoir. Wastewater plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (year 2006 demand conditions) were compared to the No Action scenario (projected demands in 2046) to assess changes in water quality over time. All scenario modeling used an external nutrient-decay model to simulate degradation and assimilation of nutrients along the riverine reach upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Reservoir modeling was conducted using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional water-quality model. Lake hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, algal biomass, and total iron were simulated. Two reservoir site locations were selected for comparison. Results of simulations at site 3B were characteristic of a riverine environment in the reservoir, whereas results at site 7B (near the dam) were characteristic of the main body of the reservoir. Simulation results for the epilimnion and hypolimnion at these two sites also were evaluated and compared. The simulation results in the hypolimnion at site 7B were indicative of the water quality leaving the reservoir. Comparisons of the different scenario results were conducted to assess if substantial differences were observed between selected scenarios. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle (water years 2000 through 2002). Additionally, each selected simulation scenario was evaluated for differences in direct and cumulative effects on a particular scenario. Direct effects are intended to isolate the future effects of the scenarios. Cumulative effects are intended to evaluate the effects of the scenarios in conjunction with all reasonably foreseeable future activities in the study area. Comparisons between the direct- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that there were not large differences in the results between most of the simulation scenarios, and, as such, the focus of this report was on results for the direct-effects analysis. Additionally, the differences between simulation results generally were

A Spatially-Explicit Technique for Evaluation of Alternative ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecosystems contribute to maintaining human well-being directly through provision of goods and indirectly through provision of services that support clean water, clean air, flood protection and atmospheric stability. Transparently accounting for biophysical attributes from which humans derive benefit is essential to support dialog among the public, resource managers, decision makers, and scientists. We analyzed the potential ecosystem goods and services production from alternative future land use scenarios in the US Tampa Bay region. Ecosystem goods and service metrics included carbon sequestration, nitrogen removal, air pollutant removal, and stormwater retention. Each scenario was compared to a 2006 baseline land use. Estimated production of denitrification services changed by 28% and carbon sequestration by 20% between 2006 and the “business as usual” scenario. An alternative scenario focused on “natural resource protection” resulted in an estimated 9% loss in air pollution removal. Stormwater retention was estimated to change 18% from 2006 to 2060 projections. Cost effective areas for conservation, almost 1588 ha, beyond current conservation lands, were identified by comparing ecosystem goods and services production to assessed land values. Our ecosystem goods and services approach provides a simple and quantitative way to examine a more complete set of potential outcomes from land use decisions. This study demonstrates an approach for spatially expli

Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

2014-01-01

The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

Life-cycle energy impacts for adapting an urban water supply system to droughts.

PubMed

Lam, Ka Leung; Stokes-Draut, Jennifer R; Horvath, Arpad; Lane, Joe L; Kenway, Steven J; Lant, Paul A

2017-12-15

In recent years, cities in some water stressed regions have explored alternative water sources such as seawater desalination and potable water recycling in spite of concerns over increasing energy consumption. In this study, we evaluate the current and future life-cycle energy impacts of four alternative water supply strategies introduced during a decade-long drought in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. These strategies were: seawater desalination, indirect potable water recycling, network integration, and rainwater tanks. Our work highlights the energy burden of alternative water supply strategies which added approximately 24% life-cycle energy use to the existing supply system (with surface water sources) in SEQ even for a current post-drought low utilisation status. Over half of this additional life-cycle energy use was from the centralised alternative supply strategies. Rainwater tanks contributed an estimated 3% to regional water supply, but added over 10% life-cycle energy use to the existing system. In the future scenario analysis, we compare the life-cycle energy use between "Normal", "Dry", "High water demand" and "Design capacity" scenarios. In the "Normal" scenario, a long-term low utilisation of the desalination system and the water recycling system has greatly reduced the energy burden of these centralised strategies to only 13%. In contrast, higher utilisation in the unlikely "Dry" and "Design capacity" scenarios add 86% and 140% to life-cycle energy use of the existing system respectively. In the "High water demand" scenario, a 20% increase in per capita water use over 20 years "consumes" more energy than is used by the four alternative strategies in the "Normal" scenario. This research provides insight for developing more realistic long-term scenarios to evaluate and compare life-cycle energy impacts of drought-adaptation infrastructure and regional decentralised water sources. Scenario building for life-cycle assessments of water supply systems should consider i) climate variability and, therefore, infrastructure utilisation rate, ii) potential under-utilisation for both installed centralised and decentralised sources, and iii) the potential energy penalty for operating infrastructure well below its design capacity (e.g., the operational energy intensity of the desalination system is three times higher at low utilisation rates). This study illustrates that evaluating the life-cycle energy use and intensity of these type of supply sources without considering their realistic long-term operating scenario(s) can potentially distort and overemphasise their energy implications. To other water stressed regions, this work shows that managing long-term water demand is also important, in addition to acknowledging the energy-intensive nature of some alternative water sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative life cycle cost assessment of painted and hot-dip galvanized bridges.

PubMed

Rossi, B; Marquart, S; Rossi, G

2017-07-15

The study addresses the life cycle cost assessment (LCCA) of steel bridges, focusing on the maintenance activities and the maintenance scenario. Firstly, the unit costs of maintenance activities and their durability (i.e. the time between two activities) are evaluated. Pragmatic data are provided for the environment category C4 and for three activities: Patch Up, Overcoating and Remove & Replace. A comparative LCCA for a typical hypothetic steel girder bridge is carried out, either painted or hot-dip galvanized (HDG), in the environmental class C4. The LCC versus the cumulated life is provided for both options. The initial cost of the steel unpainted option is only 50.3% of the HDG option. It is shown that after 'Overcoating' occurring at 18.5 years, the total Net Present Value (NPV) of the painted option surpasses that of the HDG option. A sensitivity analysis of the NPV to the cost and service life parameters, the escalation and discount rates is then performed. The discount and escalation rates, considerably influences the total LCC, following a non-linear trend. The total LCC decreases with the discount rate increasing and, conversely, increases with the escalation rate increasing. Secondly, the influence of the maintenance scenario on the total LCC is assessed based on a probabilistic approach. A permutation of the three independent maintenance activities assumed to occur six times over the life of the bridge is considered and a probability of occurrence is associated to each unique scenario. The most probable scenarios are then classified according to their NPV or achieved service life. This approach leads to the definition of a cost-effective maintenance scenario i.e. the scenario, within all the considered permutations, that has the minimum LCC in a range of lifespan. Besides, the probabilistic analysis also shows that, whatever the scenario, the return on investment period ranges between 18.5 years and 24.2 years. After that period, the HDG option becomes economic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

PubMed

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

[Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.

PubMed

Huo, Xiao Ying; Peng, Shou Zhang; Ren, Jing Yu; Cao, Yang; Chen, Yun Ming

2018-02-01

This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period, annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12, 0.23 and 0.54 ℃·10 a -1 under RCP 2.6 , RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP 4.5 , under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a -1 . Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period (1961-1990), it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period, and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP 8.5 scenario. The NPP under the RCP 8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios. During 2015-2100, the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m -2 ·10 a -1 under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively, implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.

What Can China Do? China's Best Alternative Outcome for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

G. Fridley, David; Zheng, Nina; T. Aden, Nathaniel

After rapid growth in economic development and energy demand over the last three decades, China has undertaken energy efficiency improvement efforts to reduce its energy intensity under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP). Since becoming the world's largest annual CO{sub 2} emitter in 2007, China has set reduction targets for energy and carbon intensities and committed to meeting 15% of its total 2020 energy demand with non-fossil fuel. Despite having achieved important savings in 11th FYP efficiency programs, rising per capita income and the continued economic importance of trade will drive demand for transport activity and fuel use. At themore » same time, an increasingly 'electrified' economy will drive rapid power demand growth. Greater analysis is therefore needed to understand the underlying drivers, possible trajectories and mitigation potential in the growing industrial, transport and power sectors. This study uses scenario analysis to understand the likely trajectory of China's energy and carbon emissions to 2030 in light of the current and planned portfolio of programs, policies and technology development and ongoing urbanization and demographic trends. It evaluates the potential impacts of alternative transportation and power sector development using two key scenarios, Continued Improvement Scenario (CIS) and Accelerated Improvement Scenario (AIS). CIS represents the most likely path of growth based on continuation of current policies and meeting announced targets and goals, including meeting planned appliance efficiency standard revisions, fuel economy standards, and industrial targets and moderate phase-out of subcritical coal-fired generation with additional non-fossil generation. AIS represents a more aggressive trajectory of accelerated improvement in energy intensity and decarbonized power and transport sectors. A range of sensitivity analysis and power technology scenarios are tested to evaluate the impact of additional actions such as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and integrated mine-mouth generation. The CIS and AIS results are also contextualized and compared to model scenarios in other published studies. The results of this study show that China's energy and CO{sub 2} emissions will not likely peak before 2030, although growth is expected to slow after 2020. Moreover, China will be able to meet its 2020 carbon intensity reduction target of 40 to 45% under both CIS and AIS, but only meet its 15% non-fossil fuel target by 2020 under AIS. Under both scenarios, efficiency remains a key resource and has the same, if not greater, mitigation potential as new technologies in transport and power sectors. In the transport sector, electrification will be closely linked the degree of decarbonization in the power sector and EV deployment has little or no impact on China's crude oil import demand. Rather, power generation improvements have the largest sector potential for overall emission mitigation while mine-mouth power generation and CCS have limited mitigation potential compared to fuel switching and efficiency improvements. Comparisons of this study's results with other published studies reveal that CIS and AIS are within the range of other national energy projections but alternative studies rely much more heavily on CCS for carbon reduction. The McKinsey study, in particular, has more optimistic assumptions for reductions in crude oil imports and coal demand in its abatement scenario and has much higher gasoline reduction potential for the same level of EV deployment. Despite these differences, this study's scenario analysis of both transport and power sectors illustrate the necessity for continued efficiency improvements and aggressive power sector decarbonization in flattening China's CO{sub 2} emissions.« less

Effect of sleep deprivation after a night shift duty on simulated crisis management by residents in anaesthesia. A randomised crossover study.

PubMed

Arzalier-Daret, Ségolène; Buléon, Clément; Bocca, Marie-Laure; Denise, Pierre; Gérard, Jean-Louis; Hanouz, Jean-Luc

2018-04-01

Sleep deprivation has been associated with an increased incidence of medical errors and can jeopardise patients' safety during medical crisis management. The aim of the study was to assess the effect of sleep deprivation on the management of simulated anaesthesia crisis by residents in anaesthesiology. A randomised, comparative, monocentric crossover study involving 48 residents in anaesthesia was performed on a high fidelity patient simulator. Each resident was evaluated in a sleep-deprived state (deprived group, after a night shift duty) and control state (control group, after a night of sleep). Performance was assessed through points obtained during crisis scenario 1 (oesophageal intubation followed by anaphylactic shock) and scenario 2 (anaesthesia-related bronchospasm followed by ventricular tachycardia). Sleep periods were recorded by actigraphy. Two independent observers assessed the performances. The primary endpoint of the study was the score obtained for each scenario. Resident's crisis management performance is associated with sleep deprivation (scenario 1: control=39 [33-42] points vs. deprived=26 [19-40] points, P=0.02; scenario 2: control=21 [17-24] vs. deprived=14 [12-19], P=0.01). The main errors observed were: error in drug administration and dose, delay in identification of hypotension, and missing communication with the surgical team about situation. The present study showed that sleep deprivation is associated with impairment of performance to manage crisis situations by residents in anaesthesia. Copyright © 2017 Société française d’anesthésie et de réanimation (Sfar). Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Studies of planning behavior of aircraft pilots in normal, abnormal, and emergency situations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johannsen, G.; Rouse, W. B.; Hillmann, K.

1981-01-01

A methodology for the study of human planning behavior in complex dynamic systems is presented and applied to the study of aircraft pilot behavior in normal, abnormal and emergency situations. The method measures the depth of planning, that is the level of detail employed with respect to a specific task, according to responses to a verbal questionnaire, and compares planning depth with variables relating to time, task criticality and the probability of increased task difficulty. In two series of experiments, depth of planning was measured on a five- or ten-point scale during various phases of flight in a HFB-320 simulator under normal flight conditions, abnormal scenarios involving temporary runway closure due to snow removal or temporary CAT-III conditions due to a dense fog, and emergency scenarios involving engine shut-down or hydraulic pressure loss. Results reveal a dichotomy between event-driven and time-driven planning, different effects of automation in abnormal and emergency scenarios and a low correlation between depth of planning and workload or flight performance.

The necessity of HVAC system for the registered architectural cultural heritage building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popovici, Cătălin George; Hudişteanu, Sebastian Valeriu; Cherecheş, Nelu-Cristian

2018-02-01

This study is intended to highlight the role of the ventilation and air conditioning system for a theatre. It was chosen as a case study the "Vasile Alecsandri" National Theatre of Jassy. The paper also sought to make a comparison in three distinct scenarios for HVAC Main Hall system - ventilation and air conditioning system of the Main Hall doesn't work; only the ventilation system of the Main Hall works and ventilation and air conditioning system of the Main Hall works. For analysing the comfort parameters, the ANSYS-Fluent software was used to build a 2D model of the building and simulation of HVAC system functionality during winter season, in all three scenarios. For the studied scenarios, the external conditions of Jassy and the indoor conditions of the theatre, when the entire spectacle hall is occupied were considered. The main aspects evaluated for each case were the air temperature, air velocity and relative humidity. The results are presented comparatively as plots and spectra of the interest parameters.

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

PubMed

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008), the product-process distinction serves to highlight the unique characteristics and challenges of scenarios for global environmental change, including their use in large-scale official assessments, basis in biophysical modelling, weak connections to decision-makers, and roles as sites of public controversy. Parson argues that these characteristics of global environmental change scenarios prohibit process-oriented approaches, which rely on pre-identifying intended users and engaging them in the scenario development process. Instead, he proposes ways in which scenario products can be enhanced to support use by multiple, non-participant user communities. Wilkinson and Eidinow (2008) reach a different conclusion. They too identify the particular challenges of grappling with global environmental change. They examine approaches to past scenario efforts and categorize them into two groups that map loosely onto the product-process distinction: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric' approaches. They propose that progress in global environmental issues can best be made through a new, third type of approach ('reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based') that would combine elements of problem- and actor-focused approaches, creating scenario processes that can simultaneously support longer-term thinking as well as more immediate actions. Collectively, the papers in this issue range widely across issues associated with contemporary scenario processes and products. We can discern in them the outlines of an important set of suggestions for improving scenario development in the future, including, among others, the following: Focus scenario exercises on more specific questions so that results from multiple models can be more illuminating (O'Neill and Nakicenovic; Garb et al 2008). Enhance scenario transparency so as to enable extensions by users, rather than further expanding representation in global scenarios themselves (Parson 2008). Incorporate relatively simple measures (such as sub-national disaggregation of income distributions and climate change impacts) in order to boost the equity sensitivity of scenarios (Baer 2009). Recognize topics where social science inputs are becoming important for improving modelling and model relevance, such as providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, or developing measures of well-being which are independent of income levels, and include in global environmental scenario teams more representatives of social science professionals (Pitcher 2009; Garb et al 2008). Invest greater resources in assessing scenario results, and in understanding and overcoming the barriers to carrying out such assessment (Hulme and Dessai 2008; O'Neill and Nakicenovic, 2008). Disaggregate the variety of global change decision makers targeted as audiences for scenarios (Parson 2008; Garb et al 2008). Develop an additional 'reflective interventionist' scenarios approach that involves different epistemologies for active learning in the public interest (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008). Draw on the extensive toolkit of social science research methods to analyze the social work of scenarios (Garb et al 2008). Create new institutions and scenario activities that can adapt and extend global scenarios to specific, often local or regional decision contexts (Parson 2008). Create fora in which scenario practitioners, modellers, decision-makers, and social scientists of various kinds can discuss the process of scenario construction and use (Garb et al 2008). We do not mean to imply a consensus among the participants in the Brown University workshop or of contributors to this collection of papers. At the same time, we believe that these and other insights and suggestions from these contributions do have a certain coherence, and collectively point to a deepening and reinvigoration of the environmental scenario-modelling enterprise—an enterprise now facing environmental change processes that are emerging as some of the most pressing challenges of our time. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Global Environment Program at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and the US Environmental Protection Agency for financially supporting publication of this focus issue. Focus on Global Environmental Scenarios Contents Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios? Mike Hulme and Suraje Dessai Learning from global emissions scenarios Brian C O'Neill and Nebojsa Nakicenovic Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling Yaakov Garb, Simone Pulver and Stacy D VanDeveer Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges E A Parson Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow Notes Note1 The workshop was held in March 2007, jointly sponsored by the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, and the US National Intelligence Council. See http://www.watsoninstitute.org/ge/scenarios/ for more information.

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

PubMed Central

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

2016-01-01

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

Cost-effectiveness of the Health X Project for tuberculosis control in China.

PubMed

Wang, W-B; Zhang, H; Petzold, M; Zhao, Q; Xu, B; Zhao, G-M

2014-08-01

Between 2002 and 2008, China's National Tuberculosis Control Programme created the Health X Project, financed in part by a World Bank loan, with additional funding from the UK Department for International Development. To assess the cost-effectiveness of the Project and its impact from a financial point of view on tuberculosis (TB) control in China. A decision-analytic model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Project. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different scenarios and assumptions on results. The primary outcome of the study was cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) saved and incremental DALYs saved. In comparison with alternative scenario 1, the Project detected 1.6 million additional cases, 44 000 deaths were prevented and a total of 18.4 million DALYs saved. The Project strategies cost approximately Chinese yuan (CNY) 953 per DALY saved (vs. CNY1140 in the control areas), and saved an estimated CNY17.5 billion in comparison with the unchanged alternative scenario (scenario 1) or CNY10.8 billion with the control scenario (scenario 2). The Project strategies were affordable and of comparable cost-effectiveness to those of other developing countries. The results also provide strong support for the existing policy of scaling up DOTS in China.

Variation in choice of study design: findings from the Epidemiology Design Decision Inventory and Evaluation (EDDIE) survey.

PubMed

Stang, Paul E; Ryan, Patrick B; Overhage, J Marc; Schuemie, Martijn J; Hartzema, Abraham G; Welebob, Emily

2013-10-01

Researchers using observational data to understand drug effects must make a number of analytic design choices that suit the characteristics of the data and the subject of the study. Review of the published literature suggests that there is a lack of consistency even when addressing the same research question in the same database. To characterize the degree of similarity or difference in the method and analysis choices made by observational database research experts when presented with research study scenarios. On-line survey using research scenarios on drug-effect studies to capture method selection and analysis choices that follow a dependency branching based on response to key questions. Voluntary participants experienced in epidemiological study design solicited for participation through registration on the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership website, membership in particular professional organizations, or links in relevant newsletters. Description (proportion) of respondents selecting particular methods and making specific analysis choices based on individual drug-outcome scenario pairs. The number of questions/decisions differed based on stem questions of study design, time-at-risk, outcome definition, and comparator. There is little consistency across scenarios, by drug or by outcome of interest, in the decisions made for design and analyses in scenarios using large healthcare databases. The most consistent choice was the cohort study design but variability in the other critical decisions was common. There is great variation among epidemiologists in the design and analytical choices that they make when implementing analyses in observational healthcare databases. These findings confirm that it will be important to generate empiric evidence to inform these decisions and to promote a better understanding of the impact of standardization on research implementation.

Assessing the cost of groundwater pollution: the case of diffuse agricultural pollution in the Upper Rhine valley aquifer.

PubMed

Rinaudo, J-D; Arnal, C; Blanchin, R; Elsass, P; Meilhac, A; Loubier, S

2005-01-01

This paper presents an assessment of the costs of diffuse groundwater pollution by nitrates and pesticides for the industrial and the drinking water sectors in the Upper Rhine valley, France. Pollution costs which occurred between 1988 and 2002 are described and assessed using the avoidance cost method. Geo-statistical methods (kriging) are then used to construct three scenarios of nitrate concentration evolution. The economic consequences of each scenario are then assessed. The estimates obtained are compared with the results of a contingent valuation study carried out in the same study area ten years earlier.

Water temperature effects from simulated dam operations and structures in the Middle Fork Willamette River, western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.; Turner, Daniel F.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-09-14

Significant FindingsStreamflow and water temperature in the Middle Fork Willamette River (MFWR), western Oregon, have been regulated and altered since the construction of Lookout Point, Dexter, and Hills Creek Dams in 1954 and 1961, respectively. Each year, summer releases from the dams typically are cooler than pre-dam conditions, with the reverse (warmer than pre-dam conditions) occurring in autumn. This pattern has been detrimental to habitat of endangered Upper Willamette River (UWR) Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and UWR winter steelhead (O. mykiss) throughout multiple life stages. In this study, scenarios testing different dam-operation strategies and hypothetical dam-outlet structures were simulated using CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic/temperature models of the MFWR system from Hills Creek Lake (HCR) to Lookout Point (LOP) and Dexter (DEX) Lakes to explore and understand the efficacy of potential flow and temperature mitigation options.Model scenarios were run in constructed wet, normal, and dry hydrologic calendar years, and designed to minimize the effects of Hills Creek and Lookout Point Dams on river temperature by prioritizing warmer lake surface releases in May–August and cooler, deep releases in September–December. Operational scenarios consisted of a range of modified release rate rules, relaxation of power-generation constraints, variations in the timing of refill and drawdown, and maintenance of different summer maximum lake levels at HCR and LOP. Structural scenarios included various combinations of hypothetical floating outlets near the lake surface and hypothetical new outlets at depth. Scenario results were compared to scenarios using existing operational rules that give temperature management some priority (Base), scenarios using pre-2012 operational rules that prioritized power generation over temperature management (NoBlend), and estimated temperatures from a without-dams condition (WoDams).Results of the tested model scenarios led to the following conclusions:The existing outlets at Lookout Point Dam, because of the range of depths, allow for greater temperature control than the two existing outlets at Hills Creek Dam that are relatively deep.Temperature control at HCR through operational scenarios generally was minimal near Hills Creek Dam, but improved downstream toward the head of LOP when decreased release rates held HCR at a low lake elevation year-round.Inflows from unregulated streams between HCR and LOP helped to dilute the effects of HCR and achieve more natural stream temperatures before the MFWR entered LOP.The relative benefit of any particular scenario depended on the location in the MFWR system used to assess the potential change, with most scenarios involving changes to Hills Creek Dam being less effective with increasing downstream distance, such as downstream of DEX.To achieve as much temperature control as the most successful structural scenarios, which were able to resemble without-dam conditions for part of the year, most operational scenarios had to be free of any power-generation requirements at Lookout Point Dam.Downstream of DEX, scenarios incorporating a hypothetical floating outlet at either HCR or LOP resulted in similar temperatures, with both scenarios causing a delay in the estimated spring Chinook egg emergence by about 9–10 days compared to base-case temperature-management scenarios.

Teaching childbirth with high-fidelity simulation. Is it better observing the scenario during the briefing session?

PubMed

Cuerva, Marcos J; Piñel, Carlos S; Martin, Lourdes; Espinosa, Jose A; Corral, Octavio J; Mendoza, Nicolás

2018-02-12

The design of optimal courses for obstetric undergraduate teaching is a relevant question. This study evaluates two different designs of simulator-based learning activity on childbirth with regard to respect to the patient, obstetric manoeuvres, interpretation of cardiotocography tracings (CTG) and infection prevention. This randomised experimental study which differs in the content of their briefing sessions consisted of two groups of undergraduate students, who performed two simulator-based learning activities on childbirth. The first briefing session included the observations of a properly performed scenario according to Spanish clinical practice guidelines on care in normal childbirth by the teachers whereas the second group did not include the observations of a properly performed scenario, and the students observed it only after the simulation process. The group that observed a properly performed scenario after the simulation obtained worse grades during the simulation, but better grades during the debriefing and evaluation. Simulator use in childbirth may be more fruitful when the medical students observe correct performance at the completion of the scenario compared to that at the start of the scenario. Impact statement What is already known on this subject? There is a scarcity of literature about the design of optimal high-fidelity simulation training in childbirth. It is known that preparing simulator-based learning activities is a complex process. Simulator-based learning includes the following steps: briefing, simulation, debriefing and evaluation. The most important part of high-fidelity simulations is the debriefing. A good briefing and simulation are of high relevance in order to have a fruitful debriefing session. What do the results of this study add? Our study describes a full simulator-based learning activity on childbirth that can be reproduced in similar facilities. The findings of this study add that high-fidelity simulation training in childbirth is favoured by a short briefing session and an abrupt start to the scenario, rather than a long briefing session that includes direct instruction in the scenario. What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? The findings of this study reveal what to include in the briefing of simulator-based learning activities on childbirth. These findings have implications in medical teaching and in medical practice.

Impact of multi-professional, scenario-based training on postpartum hemorrhage in Tanzania: a quasi-experimental, pre- vs. post-intervention study.

PubMed

Egenberg, Signe; Masenga, Gileard; Bru, Lars Edvin; Eggebø, Torbjørn Moe; Mushi, Cecilia; Massay, Deodatus; Øian, Pål

2017-09-05

Tanzania has a relatively high maternal mortality ratio of 410 per 100,000 live births. Severe postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is a major cause of maternal deaths, but in most cases, it is preventable. However, most pregnant women that develop PPH, have no known risk factors. Therefore, preventive measures must be offered to all pregnant women. This study investigated the effects of multi-professional, scenario-based training on the prevention and management of PPH at a Tanzanian zonal consultant hospital. We hypothesized that scenario-based training could contribute to improved competence on PPH-management, which would result in improved team efficiency and patient outcome. This quasi-experimental, pre-vs. post-interventional study involved on-site multi-professional, scenario-based PPH training, conducted in a two-week period in October 2013 and another 2 weeks in November 2014. Training teams included nurses, midwives, doctors, and medical attendants in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology. After technical skill training on the birthing simulator MamaNatalie®, the teams practiced in realistic scenarios on PPH. Each scenario was followed by debriefing and repeated scenario. Afterwards, the group swapped roles and the observers became the participants. To evaluate the effects of training, we measured patient outcomes by determining blood transfusion rates. Patient data were collected by randomly sampling Medical birth registry files from the pre-training and post-training study periods (n = 1667 and 1641 files, respectively). Data were analyzed with the Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U-test, and binary logistic regression. The random patient samples (n = 3308) showed that, compared to pre-training, post-training patients had a 47% drop in whole blood transfusion rates and significant increases in cesarean section rates, birth weights, and vacuum deliveries. The logistic regression analysis showed that transfusion rates were significantly associated with the time period (pre- vs. post-training), cesarean section, patients tranferred from other hospitals, maternal age, and female genital mutilation and cutting. We found that multi-professional, scenario-based training was associated with a significant, 47% reduction in whole blood transfusion rates. These results suggested that training that included all levels of maternity staff, repeated sessions with realistic scenarios, and debriefing may have contributed to reduced blood transfusion rates in this high-risk maternity setting.

Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it

2012-01-15

This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of howmore » the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.« less

Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study.

PubMed

Tainio, Marko; Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas Rv; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

2017-02-22

To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1-5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Working age population for England. Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO 2 e/year for the diet scenarios. Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

EEG epochs with less alpha rhythm improve discrimination of mild Alzheimer's.

PubMed

Kanda, Paulo A M; Oliveira, Eliezyer F; Fraga, Francisco J

2017-01-01

Eyes-closed-awake electroencephalogram (EEG) is a useful tool in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's. However, there is eyes-closed-awake EEG with dominant or rare alpha rhythm. In this paper, we show that random selection of EEG epochs disregarding the alpha rhythm will lead to bias concerning EEG-based Alzheimer's Disease diagnosis. We compared EEG epochs with more than 30% and with less than 30% alpha rhythm of mild Alzheimer's Disease patients and healthy elderly. We classified epochs as dominant alpha scenario and rare alpha scenario according to alpha rhythm (8-13 Hz) percentage in O1, O2 and Oz channels. Accordingly, we divided the probands into four groups: 17 dominant alpha scenario controls, 15 mild Alzheimer's patients with dominant alpha scenario epochs, 12 rare alpha scenario healthy elderly and 15 mild Alzheimer's Disease patients with rare alpha scenario epochs. We looked for group differences using one-way ANOVA tests followed by post-hoc multiple comparisons (p < 0.05) over normalized energy values (%) on the other four well-known frequency bands (delta, theta, beta and gamma) using two different electrode configurations (parieto-occipital and central). After carrying out post-hoc multiple comparisons, for both electrode configurations we found significant differences between mild Alzheimer's patients and healthy elderly on beta- and theta-energy (%) only for the rare alpha scenario. No differences were found for the dominant alpha scenario in any of the five frequency bands. This is the first study of Alzheimer's awake-EEG reporting the influence of alpha rhythm on epoch selection, where our results revealed that, contrarily to what was most likely expected, less synchronized EEG epochs (rare alpha scenario) better discriminated mild Alzheimer's than those presenting abundant alpha (dominant alpha scenario). In addition, we find out that epoch selection is a very sensitive issue in qEEG research. Consequently, for Alzheimer's studies dealing with resting state EEG, we propose that epoch selection strategies should always be cautiously designed and thoroughly explained. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating ecosystem services trade-offs with paddy land-to-dry land decisions: A scenario approach in Erhai Lake Basin, southwest China.

PubMed

Hu, Yi'na; Peng, Jian; Liu, Yanxu; Tian, Lu

2018-06-01

Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems, and ecosystem services trade-offs have been widely applied to the development of land-use policy. Although previous studies have focused on trade-offs of ecosystem services, a scenario approach has been seldom used. The scenario approach can reveal the changes of ecosystem services for different land-use patterns in the future, and is of great significance for land-use decisions and ecosystem management. Based on the actual situation of deteriorating water quality and dwindling water supply in the Erhai Lake Basin of southwest China, this study put forward to convert paddy land to dry land (PLDL) in the basin, and simulated its potential impact on ecosystem services. Taking environmental pollution, social impact, economic benefit and residential participation into consideration, four scenarios of PLDL were designed. Then, four ecosystem services (water purification, water yield, soil conservation and rice production) were calculated for each scenario. The optimal scenario of PLDL in the Erhai Lake Basin was identified by trade-offs of the four ecosystem services. The results showed that the total nitrogen export could be reduced by 42.07% and water yield can be increased by 5.61% after converting 100% of paddy lands to dry land, thereby greatly improving the water quality and increasing the water yield of Erhai Lake. However, PLDL involving 100% of paddy lands also increased the sediment export by 17.22%, and eliminated rice production in the region. By comparing the four PLDL scenarios for converting just 50% of paddy lands, the residential participation scenario was identified to be the best choice for PLDL implementation because it achieved the best level of water purification and had the smallest negative effect on other ecosystem services. The optimal scenario for each township showed spatial differentiation, and there were conflicts between the optimal scenarios at basin scale and township scale, suggesting that the object and the spatial-temporal scale should be taken into consideration in land-use decisions using ecosystem services trade-offs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Impacts of Alternative Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Rice–Wheat Annual Rotation in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin

2012-01-01

Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID:23029173

Comparative cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment of biogas production from marine algae and cattle manure biorefineries.

PubMed

Giwa, Adewale

2017-11-01

The environmental impacts resulting from the cradle-to-grave life cycles of Enteromorpha prolifera macroalgae and cattle manure biorefineries are assessed and compared. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the response of the impacts to changes in biogas application by using Simapro 7.3.3. Three scenarios are considered in the biorefineries. In the first and second scenarios, the biogas produced is considered to be used for electricity production and transportation, respectively. In the third scenario, the biogas is considered to be recycled back to the systems. Process energy requirements and transportation of inputs contribute the largest share of the overall impacts. The cattle manure biorefinery is slightly more eco-friendly than the macroalgae biorefinery in Scenarios 1 and 2 because it requires more eco-friendly inputs. However, the macroalgae biorefinery becomes more eco-friendly than the cattle manure biorefinery in Scenario 3 because macroalgae require less energy and water for biogas production. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring moment-to-moment pilot workload using synchronous presentations of secondary tasks in a motion-base trainer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bortolussi, Michael R.; Hart, Sandra G.; Shively, Robert J.

1987-01-01

A simulation was conducted to determine whether the sensitivity of secondary task measures of pilot workload could be improved by synchronizing their presentation to the occurrence of specific events or pilot actions. This synchronous method of presentation was compared to the more typical asynchronous method, where secondary task presentations are independent of pilot's flight-related activities. Twelve pilots flew low- and high-difficulty scenarios in a motion-base trainer with and without concurrent secondary tasks (e.g., choice reaction time and time production). The difficulty of each scenario was manipulated by the addition of 21 flight-related tasks superimposed on a standard approach and landing sequence. The insertion of the secondary tasks did not affect primary flight performance. However, secondary task performance did reflect workload differences between scenarios and among flight segments within scenarios, replicating the results of an earlier study in which the secondary tasks were presented asynchronously (Bortolussi et al., 1986).

Development Of An Agroforestry Sequestration Project In KhammamDistrict Of India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sudha, P.; Ramprasad, V.; Nagendra, M.D.V.

2007-06-01

Large potential for agroforestry as a mitigation option hasgiven rise to scientific and policy questions. This paper addressesmethodological issues in estimating carbon sequestration potential,baseline determination, additionality and leakage in Khammam district,Andhra Pradesh, southern part of India. Technical potential forafforestation was determined considering the various landuse options. Forestimating the technical potential, culturable wastelands, fallow andmarginal croplands were considered for Eucalyptus clonal plantations.Field studies for aboveground and below ground biomass, woody litter andsoil organic carbon for baseline and project scenario were conducted toestimate the carbon sequestration potential. The baseline carbon stockwas estimated to be 45.33 tC/ha. The additional carbon sequestrationpotential under themore » project scenario for 30 years is estimated to be12.82 tC/ha/year inclusive of harvest regimes and carbon emissions due tobiomass burning and fertilizer application. The project scenario thoughhas a higher benefit cost ratio compared to baseline scenario, initialinvestment cost is high. Investment barrier exists for adoptingagroforestry in thedistrict.« less

Life cycle assessment of flexibly fed biogas processes for an improved demand-oriented biogas supply.

PubMed

Ertem, Funda Cansu; Martínez-Blanco, Julia; Finkbeiner, Matthias; Neubauer, Peter; Junne, Stefan

2016-11-01

This paper analyses concepts to facilitate a demand oriented biogas supply at an agricultural biogas plant of a capacity of 500kWhel, operated with the co-digestion of maize, grass, rye silage and chicken manure. In contrast to previous studies, environmental impacts of flexible and the traditional baseload operation are compared. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was performed to detect the environmental impacts of: (i) variety of feedstock co-digestion scenarios by substitution of maize and (ii) loading rate scenarios with a focus on flexible feedstock utilization. Demand-driven biogas production is critical for an overall balanced power supply to the electrical grid. It results in lower amounts of emissions; feedstock loading rate scenarios resulted in 48%, 20%, 11% lower global warming (GWP), acidification (AP) and eutrophication potentials, and a 16% higher cumulative energy demand. Substitution of maize with biogenic-waste regarding to feedstock substitution scenarios could create 10% lower GWP and AP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Effective Algorithm Research of Scenario Voxelization Organization and Occlusion Culling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Guangling; Ding, Lu; Qin, Zhiyuan; Tong, Xiaochong

2016-11-01

Compared with the traditional triangulation approaches, the voxelized point cloud data can reduce the sensitivity of scenario and complexity of calculation. While on the base of the point cloud data, implementation scenario organization could be accomplishment by subtle voxel, but it will add more memory consumption. Therefore, an effective voxel representation method is very necessary. At present, the specific study of voxel visualization algorithm is less. This paper improved the ray tracing algorithm by the characteristics of voxel configuration. Firstly, according to the scope of point cloud data, determined the scope of the pixels on the screen. Then, calculated the light vector came from each pixel. Lastly, used the rules of voxel configuration to calculate all the voxel penetrated through by light. The voxels closest to viewpoint were named visible ones, the rest were all obscured ones. This experimental showed that the method could realize voxelization organization and voxel occlusion culling of implementation scenario efficiently, and increased the render efficiency.

A comparison of a traditional endotracheal tube versus ETView SL in endotracheal intubation during different emergency conditions

PubMed Central

Truszewski, Zenon; Krajewski, Paweł; Fudalej, Marcin; Smereka, Jacek; Frass, Michael; Robak, Oliver; Nguyen, Bianka; Ruetzler, Kurt; Szarpak, Lukasz

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Airway management is a crucial skill essential to paramedics and personnel working in Emergency Medical Services and Emergency Departments: Lack of practice, a difficult airway, or a trauma situation may limit the ability of paramedics to perform direct laryngoscopy during cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Videoscope devices are alternatives for airway management in these situations. The ETView VivaSight SL (ETView; ETView Ltd., Misgav, Israel) is a new, single-lumen airway tube with an integrated high-resolution imaging camera. To assess if the ETView VivaSight SL can be a superior alternative to a standard endotracheal tube for intubation in an adult cadaver model, both during and without simulated CPR. Methods: ETView VivaSight SL tube was investigated via an interventional, randomized, crossover, cadaver study. A total of 52 paramedics participated in the intubation of human cadavers in three different scenarios: a normal airway at rest without concomitant chest compression (CC) (scenario A), a normal airway with uninterrupted CC (scenario B) and manual in-line stabilization (scenario C). Time and rate of success for intubation, the glottic view scale, and ease-of-use of ETView vs. sETT intubation were assessed for each emergency scenario. Results: The median time to intubation using ETView vs. sETT was compared for each of the aforementioned scenarios. For scenario A, time to first ventilation was achieved fastest for ETView, 19.5 [IQR, 16.5–22] sec, when compared to that of sETT at 21.5 [IQR, 20–25] sec (p = .013). In scenario B, the time for intubation using ETView was 21 [IQR, 18.5–24.5] sec (p < .001) and sETT was 27 [IQR, 24.5–31.5] sec. Time to first ventilation for scenario C was 23.5 [IQR, 19–25.5] sec for the ETView and 42.5 [IQR, 35–49.5] sec for sETT. Conclusions: In normal airways and situations with continuous chest compressions, the success rate for intubation of cadavers and the time to ventilation were improved with the ETView. The time to glottis view, tube insertion, and cuff block were all found to be shorter with the ETView. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02733536. PMID:27858851

A comparison of a traditional endotracheal tube versus ETView SL in endotracheal intubation during different emergency conditions: A randomized, crossover cadaver trial.

PubMed

Truszewski, Zenon; Krajewski, Paweł; Fudalej, Marcin; Smereka, Jacek; Frass, Michael; Robak, Oliver; Nguyen, Bianka; Ruetzler, Kurt; Szarpak, Lukasz

2016-11-01

Airway management is a crucial skill essential to paramedics and personnel working in Emergency Medical Services and Emergency Departments: Lack of practice, a difficult airway, or a trauma situation may limit the ability of paramedics to perform direct laryngoscopy during cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Videoscope devices are alternatives for airway management in these situations. The ETView VivaSight SL (ETView; ETView Ltd., Misgav, Israel) is a new, single-lumen airway tube with an integrated high-resolution imaging camera. To assess if the ETView VivaSight SL can be a superior alternative to a standard endotracheal tube for intubation in an adult cadaver model, both during and without simulated CPR. ETView VivaSight SL tube was investigated via an interventional, randomized, crossover, cadaver study. A total of 52 paramedics participated in the intubation of human cadavers in three different scenarios: a normal airway at rest without concomitant chest compression (CC) (scenario A), a normal airway with uninterrupted CC (scenario B) and manual in-line stabilization (scenario C). Time and rate of success for intubation, the glottic view scale, and ease-of-use of ETView vs. sETT intubation were assessed for each emergency scenario. The median time to intubation using ETView vs. sETT was compared for each of the aforementioned scenarios. For scenario A, time to first ventilation was achieved fastest for ETView, 19.5 [IQR, 16.5-22] sec, when compared to that of sETT at 21.5 [IQR, 20-25] sec (p = .013). In scenario B, the time for intubation using ETView was 21 [IQR, 18.5-24.5] sec (p < .001) and sETT was 27 [IQR, 24.5-31.5] sec. Time to first ventilation for scenario C was 23.5 [IQR, 19-25.5] sec for the ETView and 42.5 [IQR, 35-49.5] sec for sETT. In normal airways and situations with continuous chest compressions, the success rate for intubation of cadavers and the time to ventilation were improved with the ETView. The time to glottis view, tube insertion, and cuff block were all found to be shorter with the ETView. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02733536.

The use of scenarios for long-range planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, John V.

Scenario planning is a method of organizing and understanding large amounts of quantitative and qualitative data for leaders to make better strategic decisions. There is a lack of academic research about scenario planning with a subsequent shortage of definitions and theories. This study utilized a case study methodology to analyze scenario planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest in their integrated resource planning (IRP) process. The cases include Avista Corporation, Idaho Power, PacifiCorp, Portland General Electric, and Puget Sound Energy. This study sought to determine how scenario planning was used, what scenario approach was used, the scenario outcomes, and the similarities and differences in the scenario planning processes. The literature review of this study covered the development of scenario planning, common definitions and theories, approaches to scenario development, and scenario outcomes. A research methodology was developed to classify the scenario development approach into intuitive, hybrid, or quantitative approaches; and scenario outcomes of changed thinking, stories of plausible futures, improved decision making, and enhanced organizational learning. The study found all three forms of scenario planning in the IRPs. All of the cases used a similar approach to IRP development. All of the cases had at least improved decision making as an outcome of scenario planning. Only one case demonstrated all four scenario outcomes. A critical finding was a correlation between the use of the intuitive approach and the use of all scenario outcomes. Another major finding was the unique use of predetermined elements, which are normally consistent across scenarios, but became critical uncertainties in some of the scenarios in the cases for this study. This finding will need to be confirmed by future research as unique to the industry or an aberration. An unusually high number of scenarios were found for cases using the hybrid approach, which was unexpected based on the literature. This work expanded the methods for studying scenario planning, enhanced the body of scholarly works on scenario planning, and provided a starting point for additional research concerning the use of scenario planning by electric utilities.

Formation of Compact Ellipticals in the merging star cluster scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia Zapata, Fernanda Cecilia; Theory and star formation group

2018-01-01

In the last years, extended old stellar clusters have been observed. They are like globular clusters (GCs) but with larger sizes(a limit of Re=10 pc is currently seen as reasonable). These extended objects (EOs) cover a huge range of mass. Objects at the low mass end with masses comparable to normal globular clusters are called extended clusters or faint fuzzies Larsen & Brodie (2000) and objects at the high-mass end are called ultra compact dwarf galaxies (UCDs). Ultra compact dwarf galaxies are compact object with luminositys above the brigtest known GCs. UCDs are more compact than typical dwarf galaxies but with comparable luminosities. Usually, a lower mass limit of 2 × 10^6 Solar masses is applied.Fellhauer & Kroupa (2002a,b) demostrated that object like ECs, FFs and UCDs can be the remnants of the merger of star clusters complexes, this scenario is called the Merging Star Cluster Scenario. Amore concise study was performed by Bruens et al. (2009, 2011).Our work tries to explain the formation of compact elliptical(cE). These objects are a comparatively rare class of spheroidal galaxies, possessing very small Re and high central surface brightnesses (Faber 1973). cEs have the same parameters as extended objects but they are slightly larger than 100 pc and the luminosities are in the range of -11 to -12 Mag.The standard formation sceanrio of these systems proposes a galaxy origin. CEs are the result of tidal stripping and truncation of nucleated larger systems. Or they could be a natural extension of the class of elliptical galaxies to lower luminosities and smaller sizes.We want to propose a completely new formation scenario for cEs. In our project we try to model cEs in a similar way that UCDs using the merging star cluster scenario extended to much higher masses and sizes. We think that in the early Universe we might have produced sufficiently strong star bursts to form cluster complexes which merge into cEs. So far it is observationally unknown if cEs are dark matter dominated objects. If our scenario is true, then they would be dark matter free very extended and massive "star clusters".

Determinants of emergency response willingness in the local public health workforce by jurisdictional and scenario patterns: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Barnett, Daniel J; Thompson, Carol B; Errett, Nicole A; Semon, Natalie L; Anderson, Marilyn K; Ferrell, Justin L; Freiheit, Jennifer M; Hudson, Robert; Koch, Michelle M; McKee, Mary; Mejia-Echeverry, Alvaro; Spitzer, James; Balicer, Ran D; Links, Jonathan M

2012-03-07

The all-hazards willingness to respond (WTR) of local public health personnel is critical to emergency preparedness. This study applied a threat-and efficacy-centered framework to characterize these workers' scenario and jurisdictional response willingness patterns toward a range of naturally-occurring and terrorism-related emergency scenarios. Eight geographically diverse local health department (LHD) clusters (four urban and four rural) across the U.S. were recruited and administered an online survey about response willingness and related attitudes/beliefs toward four different public health emergency scenarios between April 2009 and June 2010 (66% response rate). Responses were dichotomized and analyzed using generalized linear multilevel mixed model analyses that also account for within-cluster and within-LHD correlations. Comparisons of rural to urban LHD workers showed statistically significant odds ratios (ORs) for WTR context across scenarios ranging from 1.5 to 2.4. When employees over 40 years old were compared to their younger counterparts, the ORs of WTR ranged from 1.27 to 1.58, and when females were compared to males, the ORs of WTR ranged from 0.57 to 0.61. Across the eight clusters, the percentage of workers indicating they would be unwilling to respond regardless of severity ranged from 14-28% for a weather event; 9-27% for pandemic influenza; 30-56% for a radiological 'dirty' bomb event; and 22-48% for an inhalational anthrax bioterrorism event. Efficacy was consistently identified as an important independent predictor of WTR. Response willingness deficits in the local public health workforce pose a threat to all-hazards response capacity and health security. Local public health agencies and their stakeholders may incorporate key findings, including identified scenario-based willingness gaps and the importance of efficacy, as targets of preparedness curriculum development efforts and policies for enhancing response willingness. Reasons for an increased willingness in rural cohorts compared to urban cohorts should be further investigated in order to understand and develop methods for improving their overall response.

Determinants of emergency response willingness in the local public health workforce by jurisdictional and scenario patterns: a cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The all-hazards willingness to respond (WTR) of local public health personnel is critical to emergency preparedness. This study applied a threat-and efficacy-centered framework to characterize these workers' scenario and jurisdictional response willingness patterns toward a range of naturally-occurring and terrorism-related emergency scenarios. Methods Eight geographically diverse local health department (LHD) clusters (four urban and four rural) across the U.S. were recruited and administered an online survey about response willingness and related attitudes/beliefs toward four different public health emergency scenarios between April 2009 and June 2010 (66% response rate). Responses were dichotomized and analyzed using generalized linear multilevel mixed model analyses that also account for within-cluster and within-LHD correlations. Results Comparisons of rural to urban LHD workers showed statistically significant odds ratios (ORs) for WTR context across scenarios ranging from 1.5 to 2.4. When employees over 40 years old were compared to their younger counterparts, the ORs of WTR ranged from 1.27 to 1.58, and when females were compared to males, the ORs of WTR ranged from 0.57 to 0.61. Across the eight clusters, the percentage of workers indicating they would be unwilling to respond regardless of severity ranged from 14-28% for a weather event; 9-27% for pandemic influenza; 30-56% for a radiological 'dirty' bomb event; and 22-48% for an inhalational anthrax bioterrorism event. Efficacy was consistently identified as an important independent predictor of WTR. Conclusions Response willingness deficits in the local public health workforce pose a threat to all-hazards response capacity and health security. Local public health agencies and their stakeholders may incorporate key findings, including identified scenario-based willingness gaps and the importance of efficacy, as targets of preparedness curriculum development efforts and policies for enhancing response willingness. Reasons for an increased willingness in rural cohorts compared to urban cohorts should be further investigated in order to understand and develop methods for improving their overall response. PMID:22397547

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities.

PubMed

Anderson, G Brooke; Oleson, Keith W; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D

2018-02-01

Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061-2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario- going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

PubMed

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, under different policy scenarios.

PubMed

Sumarga, Elham; Hein, Lars

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.

Evaluating the Intervention of an Ethics Class in Students' Ethical Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Marquita

2011-01-01

In this pilot study, the author evaluated the impact of an ethics class in terms of students' ethical decision-making. The research compares aggregate responses from scenario-based pre- and post-survey open-ended survey questions designed to elicit changes in ethical decision-making by comparing students' cognitive and affective perceptions about…

A cost-effectiveness analysis of self-debriefing versus instructor debriefing for simulated crises in perioperative medicine in Canada.

PubMed

Isaranuwatchai, Wanrudee; Alam, Fahad; Hoch, Jeffrey; Boet, Sylvain

2017-01-01

High-fidelity simulation training is effective for learning crisis resource management (CRM) skills, but cost is a major barrier to implementing high-fidelity simulation training into the curriculum. The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of self-debriefing and traditional instructor debriefing in CRM training programs and to calculate the minimum willingness-to-pay (WTP) value when one debriefing type becomes more cost-effective than the other. This study used previous data from a randomized controlled trial involving 50 anesthesiology residents in Canada. Each participant managed a pretest crisis scenario. Participants who were randomized to self-debrief used the video of their pretest scenario with no instructor present during their debriefing. Participants from the control group were debriefed by a trained instructor using the video of their pretest scenario. Participants individually managed a post-test simulated crisis scenario. We compared the cost and effectiveness of self-debriefing versus instructor debriefing using net benefit regression. The cost-effectiveness estimate was reported as the incremental net benefit and the uncertainty was presented using a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. Self-debriefing costs less than instructor debriefing. As the WTP increased, the probability that self-debriefing would be cost-effective decreased. With a WTP ≤Can$200, the self-debriefing program was cost-effective. However, when effectiveness was priced higher than cost-savings and with a WTP >Can$300, instructor debriefing was the preferred alternative. With a lower WTP (≤Can$200), self-debriefing was cost-effective in CRM simulation training when compared to instructor debriefing. This study provides evidence regarding cost-effectiveness that will inform decision-makers and clinical educators in their decision-making process, and may help to optimize resource allocation in education.

Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis of High-Octane Fuels with Various Market Shares and Ethanol Blending Levels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Jeongwoo; Elgowainy, Amgad; Wang, Michael

2015-07-14

In this study, we evaluated the impacts of producing HOF with a RON of 100, using a range of ethanol blending levels (E10, E25, and E40), vehicle efficiency gains, and HOF market penetration scenarios (3.4% to 70%), on WTW petroleum use and GHG emissions. In particular, we conducted LP modeling of petroleum refineries to examine the impacts of different HOF production scenarios on petroleum refining energy use and GHG emissions. We compared two cases of HOF vehicle fuel economy gains of 5% and 10% in terms of MPGGE to baseline regular gasoline vehicles. We incorporated three key factors in GREETmore » — (1) refining energy intensities of gasoline components for the various ethanol blending options and market shares, (2) vehicle efficiency gains, and (3) upstream energy use and emissions associated with the production of different crude types and ethanol — to compare the WTW GHG emissions of various HOF/vehicle scenarios with the business-as-usual baseline regular gasoline (87 AKI E10) pathway.« less

Impact of respiratory motion on worst-case scenario optimized intensity modulated proton therapy for lung cancers.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Liao, Zhongxing; Schild, Steven E; Liu, Zhong; Li, Heng; Li, Yupeng; Park, Peter C; Li, Xiaoqiang; Stoker, Joshua; Shen, Jiajian; Keole, Sameer; Anand, Aman; Fatyga, Mirek; Dong, Lei; Sahoo, Narayan; Vora, Sujay; Wong, William; Zhu, X Ronald; Bues, Martin; Mohan, Radhe

2015-01-01

We compared conventionally optimized intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) treatment plans against worst-case scenario optimized treatment plans for lung cancer. The comparison of the 2 IMPT optimization strategies focused on the resulting plans' ability to retain dose objectives under the influence of patient setup, inherent proton range uncertainty, and dose perturbation caused by respiratory motion. For each of the 9 lung cancer cases, 2 treatment plans were created that accounted for treatment uncertainties in 2 different ways. The first used the conventional method: delivery of prescribed dose to the planning target volume that is geometrically expanded from the internal target volume (ITV). The second used a worst-case scenario optimization scheme that addressed setup and range uncertainties through beamlet optimization. The plan optimality and plan robustness were calculated and compared. Furthermore, the effects on dose distributions of changes in patient anatomy attributable to respiratory motion were investigated for both strategies by comparing the corresponding plan evaluation metrics at the end-inspiration and end-expiration phase and absolute differences between these phases. The mean plan evaluation metrics of the 2 groups were compared with 2-sided paired Student t tests. Without respiratory motion considered, we affirmed that worst-case scenario optimization is superior to planning target volume-based conventional optimization in terms of plan robustness and optimality. With respiratory motion considered, worst-case scenario optimization still achieved more robust dose distributions to respiratory motion for targets and comparable or even better plan optimality (D95% ITV, 96.6% vs 96.1% [P = .26]; D5%- D95% ITV, 10.0% vs 12.3% [P = .082]; D1% spinal cord, 31.8% vs 36.5% [P = .035]). Worst-case scenario optimization led to superior solutions for lung IMPT. Despite the fact that worst-case scenario optimization did not explicitly account for respiratory motion, it produced motion-resistant treatment plans. However, further research is needed to incorporate respiratory motion into IMPT robust optimization. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Radiation Oncology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intra-operative disruptions, surgeon's mental workload, and technical performance in a full-scale simulated procedure.

PubMed

Weigl, Matthias; Stefan, Philipp; Abhari, Kamyar; Wucherer, Patrick; Fallavollita, Pascal; Lazarovici, Marc; Weidert, Simon; Euler, Ekkehard; Catchpole, Ken

2016-02-01

Surgical flow disruptions occur frequently and jeopardize perioperative care and surgical performance. So far, insights into subjective and cognitive implications of intra-operative disruptions for surgeons and inherent consequences for performance are inconsistent. This study aimed to investigate the effect of surgical flow disruption on surgeon's intra-operative workload and technical performance. In a full-scale OR simulation, 19 surgeons were randomly allocated to either of the two disruption scenarios (telephone call vs. patient discomfort). Using a mixed virtual reality simulator with a computerized, high-fidelity mannequin, all surgeons were trained in performing a vertebroplasty procedure and subsequently performed such a procedure under experimental conditions. Standardized measures on subjective workload and technical performance (trocar positioning deviation from expert-defined standard, number, and duration of X-ray acquisitions) were collected. Intra-operative workload during simulated disruption scenarios was significantly higher compared to training sessions (p < .01). Surgeons in the telephone call scenario experienced significantly more distraction compared to their colleagues in the patient discomfort scenario (p < .05). However, workload tended to be increased in surgeons who coped with distractions due to patient discomfort. Technical performance was not significantly different between both disruption scenarios. We found a significant association between surgeons' intra-operative workload and technical performance such that surgeons with increased mental workload tended to perform worse (β = .55, p = .04). Surgical flow disruptions affect surgeons' intra-operative workload. Increased mental workload was associated with inferior technical performance. Our simulation-based findings emphasize the need to establish smooth surgical flow which is characterized by a low level of process deviations and disruptions.

Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

2014-12-01

Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

Environmental life cycle assessment of different domestic wastewater streams: policy effectiveness in a tropical urban environment.

PubMed

Ng, Bernard J H; Zhou, Jin; Giannis, Apostolos; Chang, Victor W-C; Wang, Jing-Yuan

2014-07-01

To enhance local water security, the Singapore government promotes two water conservation policies: the use of eco-friendly toilets to reduce yellow water (YW) disposal and the installation of water efficient devices to minimize gray water (GW) discharge. The proposed water conservation policies have different impacts on the environmental performance of local wastewater management. The main purpose of this study is to examine and compare the impacts of different domestic wastewater streams and the effectiveness of two water conservation policies by means of life cycle assessment (LCA). LCA is used to compare three scenarios, including a baseline scenario (BL), YW-reduced scenario (YWR) and GW-reduced scenario (GWR). The BL is designed based on the current wastewater management system, whereas the latter two scenarios are constructed according to the two water conservation policies that are proposed by the Singapore government. The software SIMPARO 7.3 with local data and an eco-invent database is used to build up the model, and the functional unit is defined as the daily wastewater disposal of a Singapore resident. Due to local water supply characteristics, the system boundary is extended to include the sewage sludge management and tap water production processes. The characterization results indicate that the GWR has a significant impact reduction (22-25%) while the YWR has only a 2-4% impact reduction compared with the BL. The contribution analysis reveals that the GW dominates many impact categories except eutrophication potential. The tap water production is identified as the most influential process due to its high embodied energy demand in a local context. Life cycle costing analysis shows that both YWR and GWR are financially favorable. It is also revealed that the current water conservation policies could only achieve Singapore's short-term targets. Therefore, two additional strategies are recommended for achieving long-term goals. This study provides a comprehensive and reliable environmental profile of Singapore's wastewater management with the help of extended system boundary and local data. This work also fills the research gap of previous studies by identifying the contribution of different wastewater streams, which would serve as a good reference for source-separating sanitation system design. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of clinical supervision on resident learning and patient care during simulated ICU scenarios.

PubMed

Piquette, Dominique; Tarshis, Jordan; Regehr, Glenn; Fowler, Robert A; Pinto, Ruxandra; LeBlanc, Vicki R

2013-12-01

Closer supervision of residents' clinical activities has been promoted to improve patient safety, but may additionally affect resident participation in patient care and learning. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of closer supervision on patient care, resident participation, and the development of resident ability to care independently for critically ill patients during simulated scenarios. This quantitative study represents a component of a larger mixed-methods study. Residents were randomized to one of three levels of supervision, defined by the physical proximity of the supervisor (distant, immediately available, and direct). Each resident completed a simulation scenario under the supervision of a critical care fellow, immediately followed by a modified scenario of similar content without supervision. The simulation center of a tertiary, university-affiliated academic center in a large urban city. Fifty-three residents completing a critical care rotation and 24 critical care fellows were recruited between April 2009 and June 2010. None. During the supervised scenarios, lower team performance checklist scores were obtained for distant supervision compared with immediately available and direct supervision (mean [SD], direct: 72% [12%] vs immediately available: 77% [10%] vs distant: 61% [11%]; p = 0.0013). The percentage of checklist items completed by the residents themselves was significantly lower during direct supervision (median [interquartile range], direct: 40% [21%] vs immediately available: 58% [16%] vs distant: 55% [11%]; p = 0.005). During unsupervised scenarios, no significant differences were found on the outcome measures. Care delivered in the presence of senior supervising physicians was more comprehensive than care delivered without access to a bedside supervisor, but was associated with lower resident participation. However, subsequent resident performance during unsupervised scenarios was not adversely affected. Direct supervision of residents leads to improved care process and does not diminish the subsequent ability of residents to function independently.

Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands.

PubMed

Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Döllerer, Martin; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas

2018-05-01

Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Evaluation of location and number of aid post for sustainable humanitarian relief using agent based modeling (ABM) and geographic information system (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khair, Fauzi; Sopha, Bertha Maya

2017-12-01

One of the crucial phases in disaster management is the response phase or the emergency response phase. It requires a sustainable system and a well-integrated management system. Any errors in the system on this phase will impact on significant increase of the victims number as well as material damage caused. Policies related to the location of aid posts are important decisions. The facts show that there are many failures in the process of providing assistance to the refugees due to lack of preparation and determination of facilities and aid post location. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the number and location of aid posts on Merapi eruption in 2010. This study uses an integration between Agent Based Modeling (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) about evaluation of the number and location of the aid post using some scenarios. The ABM approach aims to describe the agents behaviour (refugees and volunteers) in the event of a disaster with their respective characteristics. While the spatial data, GIS useful to describe real condition of the Sleman regency road. Based on the simulation result, it shows alternative scenarios that combine DERU UGM post, Maguwoharjo Stadium, Tagana Post and Pakem Main Post has better result in handling and distributing aid to evacuation barrack compared to initial scenario. Alternative scenarios indicates the unmet demands are less than the initial scenario.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

2010-05-01

The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are applied not only to the mean of climatic variables, but also across the statistical distributions of these variables. This is important as these distributions are expected to change in the future, with more extreme rainfall events, separated by longer dry periods. (2) The novel approach used in this study can simulate transient climate change from 2010 to 2085, rather than time series representative of a stationary climate for the period 2071-2100. (3) The weather generator is used to generate a large number of equiprobable climate change scenarios for each RCM, representative of the natural variability of the weather. All of these scenarios are applied as input to the Geer basin model to assess the projected impact of climate change on groundwater levels, the uncertainty arising for different RCM projections and the uncertainty linked to natural climatic variability. Using the output results from all scenarios, 95% confidence intervals are calculated for each year and month between 2010 and 2085. The climate change scenarios for the Geer basin model predict hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. Considering the results of this study, it is very likely that groundwater levels and surface flow rates in the Geer basin will decrease by the end of the century. This is of concern because it also means that groundwater quantities available for abstraction will also decrease. However, this study also shows that the uncertainty of these projections is relatively large compared to the projected changes so that it remains difficult to confidently determine the magnitude of the decrease. The use and combination of an integrated surface - subsurface model and stochastic climate change scenarios has never been used in previous climate change impact studies on groundwater resources. It constitutes an innovation and is an important tool for helping water managers to take decisions.

Safety assessment methodology in management of spent sealed sources.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Narmine Salah

2005-02-14

Environmental hazards can be caused from radioactive waste after their disposal. It was therefore important that safety assessment methodologies be developed and established to study and estimate the possible hazards, and institute certain safety methodologies that lead and prevent the evolution of these hazards. Spent sealed sources are specific type of radioactive waste. According to IAEA definition, spent sealed sources are unused sources because of activity decay, damage, misuse, loss, or theft. Accidental exposure of humans from spent sealed sources can occur at the moment they become spent and before their disposal. Because of that reason, safety assessment methodologies were tailored to suit the management of spent sealed sources. To provide understanding and confidence of this study, validation analysis was undertaken by considering the scenario of an accident that occurred in Egypt, June 2000 (the Meet-Halfa accident from an iridium-192 source). The text of this work includes consideration related to the safety assessment approaches of spent sealed sources which constitutes assessment context, processes leading an active source to be spent, accident scenarios, mathematical models for dose calculations, and radiological consequences and regulatory criteria. The text also includes a validation study, which was carried out by evaluating a theoretical scenario compared to the real scenario of Meet-Halfa accident depending on the clinical assessment of affected individuals.

The performance of an automatic acoustic-based program classifier compared to hearing aid users' manual selection of listening programs.

PubMed

Searchfield, Grant D; Linford, Tania; Kobayashi, Kei; Crowhen, David; Latzel, Matthias

2018-03-01

To compare preference for and performance of manually selected programmes to an automatic sound classifier, the Phonak AutoSense OS. A single blind repeated measures study. Participants were fit with Phonak Virto V90 ITE aids; preferences for different listening programmes were compared across four different sound scenarios (speech in: quiet, noise, loud noise and a car). Following a 4-week trial preferences were reassessed and the users preferred programme was compared to the automatic classifier for sound quality and hearing in noise (HINT test) using a 12 loudspeaker array. Twenty-five participants with symmetrical moderate-severe sensorineural hearing loss. Participant preferences of manual programme for scenarios varied considerably between and within sessions. A HINT Speech Reception Threshold (SRT) advantage was observed for the automatic classifier over participant's manual selection for speech in quiet, loud noise and car noise. Sound quality ratings were similar for both manual and automatic selections. The use of a sound classifier is a viable alternative to manual programme selection.

Simulation and Feedback in Health Education: A Mixed Methods Study Comparing Three Simulation Modalities.

PubMed

Tait, Lauren; Lee, Kenneth; Rasiah, Rohan; Cooper, Joyce M; Ling, Tristan; Geelan, Benjamin; Bindoff, Ivan

2018-05-03

Background . There are numerous approaches to simulating a patient encounter in pharmacy education. However, little direct comparison between these approaches has been undertaken. Our objective was to investigate student experiences, satisfaction, and feedback preferences between three scenario simulation modalities (paper-, actor-, and computer-based). Methods . We conducted a mixed methods study with randomized cross-over of simulation modalities on final-year Australian graduate-entry Master of Pharmacy students. Participants completed case-based scenarios within each of three simulation modalities, with feedback provided at the completion of each scenario in a format corresponding to each simulation modality. A post-simulation questionnaire collected qualitative and quantitative responses pertaining to participant satisfaction, experiences, and feedback preferences. Results . Participants reported similar levels satisfaction across all three modalities. However, each modality resulted in unique positive and negative experiences, such as student disengagement with paper-based scenarios. Conclusion . Importantly, the themes of guidance and opportunity for peer discussion underlie the best forms of feedback for students. The provision of feedback following simulation should be carefully considered and delivered, with all three simulation modalities producing both positive and negative experiences in regard to their feedback format.

Expertise and age differences in pilot decision making.

PubMed

Morrow, Daniel G; Miller, Lisa M Soederberg; Ridolfo, Heather E; Magnor, Clifford; Fischer, Ute M; Kokayeff, Nina K; Stine-Morrow, Elizabeth A L

2009-01-01

We examined the influence of age and expertise on pilot decision making. Older and younger expert and novice pilots read at their own pace scenarios describing simpler or more complex flight situations. Then in a standard interview they discussed the scenario problem and how they would respond. Protocols were coded for identification of problem and solutions to this problem, and frequency of elaborations on problem and solution. Scenario comprehension was measured as differential reading time allocation to problem-critical information and scenario memory by the accuracy of answering questions about the scenarios after the interview. All groups accurately identified the problems, but experts elaborated problem descriptions more than novices did. Experts also spent more time reading critical information in the complex scenarios, which may reflect time needed to develop elaborate situation models of the problems. Expertise comprehension benefits were similar for older and younger pilots. Older experts were especially likely to elaborate the problem compared to younger experts, while older novices were less likely to elaborate the problem and to identify appropriate solutions compared to their younger counterparts. The findings suggest age invariance in knowledge-based comprehension relevant to pilot decision making.

Evaluation of community pharmacists' preparedness for the provision of cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management services: A study with simulated patients in Qatar.

PubMed

Zolezzi, Monica; Abdallah, Oraib; Kheir, Nadir; Abdelsalam, Abdelsalam Gomaa

2018-04-28

Individuals who suffer from major cardiovascular events every year have one or more risk factors. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is an important strategy for the early identification of modifiable risk factors and their management. There is substantial evidence that shifting the focus from treatment to primary prevention reduces the burden of CVD. To evaluate the preparedness of community pharmacists in Qatar for the provision of CVD risk assessment and management services; and to explore the pharmacists' views on the provision of these services. A cross-sectional study using simulated-client methodology. Using standardized scenarios, community pharmacists were approached for consultation on two medicines (Aspirin ® and Crestor ® ) used for managing specific CVD risk factors. Pharmacists' competency to assess CVD risk was the primary outcome evaluated. Scores for each outcome were obtained based on the number of predefined statements addressed during the consultation. The mean cumulative score for all the competency outcomes assessed was 11.7 (SD 3.7) out of a possible score of 31. There were no differences for the majority of the competencies tested between the two scenarios used. Significantly more pharmacists exposed to the Aspirin ® scenario than to the Crestor ® scenario addressed hypertension as one of the risk factors needed to assess CVD risk (22% versus 11%, p = 0.03); whereas significantly more pharmacists in the Crestor ® scenario compared to the Aspirin ® scenario, addressed dyslipidemia as one of the risk factors needed to assess CVD risk (30% versus 7%, p = 0.02). Significantly more pharmacists exposed to the Aspirin ® scenario provided explanation about CVD risk than those exposed to the Crestor ® scenario 36% versus 8%, p < 0.01). The results suggest that many community pharmacists in Qatar are not displaying competencies that are necessary for the provision of CVD prevention services. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

‘Imagined guilt’ vs ‘recollected guilt’: implications for fMRI

PubMed Central

Mclatchie, Neil; Giner-Sorolla, Roger; Derbyshire, Stuart W. G.

2016-01-01

Abstract Guilt is thought to maintain social harmony by motivating reparation. This study compared two methodologies commonly used to identify the neural correlates of guilt. The first, imagined guilt, requires participants to read hypothetical scenarios and then imagine themselves as the protagonist. The second, recollected guilt, requires participants to reflect on times they personally experienced guilt. In the fMRI scanner, participants were presented with guilt/neutral memories and guilt/neutral hypothetical scenarios. Contrasts confirmed a priori predictions that guilt memories, relative to guilt scenarios, were associated with significantly greater activity in regions associated with affect [anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), Caudate, Insula, orbital frontal cortex (OFC)] and social cognition [temporal pole (TP), precuneus). Similarly, results indicated that guilt memories, relative to neutral memories, were also associated with greater activity in affective (ACC, amygdala, Insula, OFC) and social cognition (mPFC, TP, precuneus, temporo-parietal junction) regions. There were no significant differences between guilt hypothetical scenarios and neutral hypothetical scenarios in either affective or social cognition regions. The importance of distinguishing between different guilt inductions inside the scanner is discussed. We offer explanations of our results and discuss ideas for future research. PMID:26746179

Alternative approaches to the construction of a composite indicator of agricultural sustainability: An application to irrigated agriculture in the Duero basin in Spain.

PubMed

Gómez-Limón, José A; Riesgo, Laura

2009-08-01

This paper describes a comparative analysis of alternative methods of constructing composite indicators to measure the sustainability of the agricultural sector. The three methods employed were Principal Component Analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a Multi-Criteria technique. The comparison focused on the irrigated agriculture of the Duero basin in Spain as a case study, using a dataset of indicators previously calculated for various farm types and policy scenarios. The results enabled us to establish a hierarchy of preferred policy scenarios on the basis of the level of sustainability achieved, and show that the most recent CAP reform is the most sustainable agricultural policy scenario. By analyzing the heterogeneity of different farms types in each scenario, we can also determine the main features of the most sustainable farms in each case. The analysis demonstrates that full-time farmers with small to medium-sized farms and sowing profitable crops are the most sustainable farm types in all the policy scenarios. All of this information is useful for the support of agricultural policy design and its implementation, as we attempt to improve the sustainability of this sector.

An analysis of the impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional tropospheric ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

John, Kuruvilla; Crist, Kevin C.; Carmichael, Gregory R.

1994-01-01

Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.

'Imagined guilt' vs 'recollected guilt': implications for fMRI.

PubMed

Mclatchie, Neil; Giner-Sorolla, Roger; Derbyshire, Stuart W G

2016-05-01

Guilt is thought to maintain social harmony by motivating reparation. This study compared two methodologies commonly used to identify the neural correlates of guilt. The first, imagined guilt, requires participants to read hypothetical scenarios and then imagine themselves as the protagonist. The second, recollected guilt, requires participants to reflect on times they personally experienced guilt. In the fMRI scanner, participants were presented with guilt/neutral memories and guilt/neutral hypothetical scenarios. Contrasts confirmed a priori predictions that guilt memories, relative to guilt scenarios, were associated with significantly greater activity in regions associated with affect [anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), Caudate, Insula, orbital frontal cortex (OFC)] and social cognition [temporal pole (TP), precuneus). Similarly, results indicated that guilt memories, relative to neutral memories, were also associated with greater activity in affective (ACC, amygdala, Insula, OFC) and social cognition (mPFC, TP, precuneus, temporo-parietal junction) regions. There were no significant differences between guilt hypothetical scenarios and neutral hypothetical scenarios in either affective or social cognition regions. The importance of distinguishing between different guilt inductions inside the scanner is discussed. We offer explanations of our results and discuss ideas for future research. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press.

A Simulation Study of Missing Data with Multiple Missing X's

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubright, Jonathan D.; Nandakumar, Ratna; Glutting, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

When exploring missing data techniques in a realistic scenario, the current literature is limited: most studies only consider consequences with data missing on a single variable. This simulation study compares the relative bias of two commonly used missing data techniques when data are missing on more than one variable. Factors varied include type…

Structural Crashworthiness Standards Comparison: Grade Crossing Collision Scenarios

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-20

In support of the Federal Railroad Administrations (FRA) : Railroad Equipment Safety Program, American and European : grade-crossing collision scenarios were evaluated and : compared. Finite element analyses (FEA) were employed to : subject an FRA...

Vehicle routing for the eco-efficient collection of household plastic waste.

PubMed

Bing, Xiaoyun; de Keizer, Marlies; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, Jacqueline M; van der Vorst, Jack G A J

2014-04-01

Plastic waste is a special category of municipal solid waste. Plastic waste collection is featured with various alternatives of collection methods (curbside/drop-off) and separation methods (source-/post-separation). In the Netherlands, the collection routes of plastic waste are the same as those of other waste, although plastic is different than other waste in terms of volume to weight ratio. This paper aims for redesigning the collection routes and compares the collection options of plastic waste using eco-efficiency as performance indicator. Eco-efficiency concerns the trade-off between environmental impacts, social issues and costs. The collection problem is modeled as a vehicle routing problem. A tabu search heuristic is used to improve the routes. Collection alternatives are compared by a scenario study approach. Real distances between locations are calculated with MapPoint. The scenario study is conducted based on real case data of the Dutch municipality Wageningen. Scenarios are designed according to the collection alternatives with different assumptions in collection method, vehicle type, collection frequency and collection points, etc. Results show that the current collection routes can be improved in terms of eco-efficiency performance by using our method. The source-separation drop-off collection scenario has the best performance for plastic collection assuming householders take the waste to the drop-off points in a sustainable manner. The model also shows to be an efficient decision support tool to investigate the impacts of future changes such as alternative vehicle type and different response rates. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finding the right compromise between productivity and environmental efficiency on high input tropical dairy farms: a case study.

PubMed

Berre, David; Blancard, Stéphane; Boussemart, Jean-Philippe; Leleu, Hervé; Tillard, Emmanuel

2014-12-15

This study focused on the trade-off between milk production and its environmental impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nitrogen surplus in a high input tropical system. We first identified the objectives of the three main stakeholders in the dairy sector (farmers, a milk cooperative and environmentalists). The main aim of the farmers and cooperative's scenarios was to increase milk production without additional environmental deterioration but with the possibility of increasing the inputs for the cooperative. The environmentalist's objective was to reduce environmental deterioration. Second, we designed a sustainable intensification scenario combining maximization of milk production and minimization of environmental impacts. Third, the objectives for reducing the eco-inefficiency of dairy systems in Reunion Island were incorporated in a framework for activity analysis, which was used to model a technological approach with desirable and undesirable outputs. Of the four scenarios, the sustainable intensification scenario produced the best results, with a potential decrease of 238 g CO2-e per liter of milk (i.e. a reduction of 13.93% compared to the current level) and a potential 7.72 L increase in milk produced for each kg of nitrogen surplus (i.e. an increase of 16.45% compared to the current level). These results were based on the best practices observed in Reunion Island and optimized manure management, crop-livestock interactions, and production processes. Our results also showed that frontier efficiency analysis can shed new light on the challenge of developing sustainable intensification in high input tropical dairy systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Simulating the effects of climate change and fire disturbance on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Luo, Xu; Wang, Yu Li; Zhang, Jin Quan

2018-03-01

Predicting the effects of climate warming and fire disturbance on forest aboveground biomass is a central task of studies in terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The alteration of temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes induced by climate warming will affect the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystem. Boreal forest is an important forest type in China, the responses of which to climate warming and fire disturbance are increasingly obvious. In this study, we used a forest landscape model LANDIS PRO to simulate the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared direct effects of climate warming and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the aboveground biomass in this area increased under climate warming scenarios and fire disturbance scenarios with increased intensity. Under the current climate and fire regime scenario, the aboveground biomass in this area was (97.14±5.78) t·hm -2 , and the value would increase up to (97.93±5.83) t·hm -2 under the B1F2 scenario. Under the A2F3 scenario, aboveground biomass at landscape scale was relatively higher at the simulated periods of year 100-150 and year 150-200, and the value were (100.02±3.76) t·hm -2 and (110.56±4.08) t·hm -2 , respectively. Compared to the current fire regime scenario, the predicted biomass at landscape scale was increased by (0.56±1.45) t·hm -2 under the CF2 scenario (fire intensity increased by 30%) at some simulated periods, and the aboveground biomass was reduced by (7.39±1.79) t·hm -2 in CF3 scenario (fire intensity increased by 230%) at the entire simulation period. There were significantly different responses between coniferous and broadleaved species under future climate warming scenarios, in that the simulated biomass for both Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla showed decreasing trend with climate change, whereas the simulated biomass for Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Picea koraiensis and Populus davidiana showed increasing trend at different degrees during the entire simulation period. There was a time lag for the direct effect of climate warming on biomass for coniferous and broadleaved species. The response time of coniferous species to climate warming was 25-30 years, which was longer than that for broadleaf species. The forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains was sensitive to the interactive effect of climate warming (high CO 2 emissions) and high intensity fire disturbance. Future climate warming and high intensity forest fire disturbance would significantly change the composition and structure of forest ecosystem.

Changes in Regional Ventilation During Treatment and Dosimetric Advantages of CT Ventilation Image Guided Radiation Therapy for Locally Advanced Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Tokihiro; Kabus, Sven; Bal, Matthieu; Bzdusek, Karl; Keall, Paul J; Wright, Cari; Benedict, Stanley H; Daly, Megan E

2018-05-04

Lung functional image guided radiation therapy (RT) that avoids irradiating highly functional regions has potential to reduce pulmonary toxicity following RT. Tumor regression during RT is common, leading to recovery of lung function. We hypothesized that computed tomography (CT) ventilation image-guided treatment planning reduces the functional lung dose compared to standard anatomic image-guided planning in 2 different scenarios with or without plan adaptation. CT scans were acquired before RT and during RT at 2 time points (16-20 Gy and 30-34 Gy) for 14 patients with locally advanced lung cancer. Ventilation images were calculated by deformable image registration of four-dimensional CT image data sets and image analysis. We created 4 treatment plans at each time point for each patient: functional adapted, anatomic adapted, functional unadapted, and anatomic unadapted plans. Adaptation was performed at 2 time points. Deformable image registration was used for accumulating dose and calculating a composite of dose-weighted ventilation used to quantify the lung accumulated dose-function metrics. The functional plans were compared with the anatomic plans for each scenario separately to investigate the hypothesis at a significance level of 0.05. Tumor volume was significantly reduced by 20% after 16 to 20 Gy (P = .02) and by 32% after 30 to 34 Gy (P < .01) on average. In both scenarios, the lung accumulated dose-function metrics were significantly lower in the functional plans than in the anatomic plans without compromising target volume coverage and adherence to constraints to critical structures. For example, functional planning significantly reduced the functional mean lung dose by 5.0% (P < .01) compared to anatomic planning in the adapted scenario and by 3.6% (P = .03) in the unadapted scenario. This study demonstrated significant reductions in the accumulated dose to the functional lung with CT ventilation image-guided planning compared to anatomic image-guided planning for patients showing tumor regression and changes in regional ventilation during RT. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical bias correction method applied on CMIP5 datasets over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season for climate change applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2018-01-01

This study makes use of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 climate model output for climate change application studies over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (JJAS). Bias correction of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 GCM simulation results with respect to observation is discussed in detail. The non-linear statistical bias correction is a suitable bias correction method for climate change data because it is simple and does not add up artificial uncertainties to the impact assessment of climate change scenarios for climate change application studies (agricultural production changes) in the future. The simple statistical bias correction uses observational constraints on the GCM baseline, and the projected results are scaled with respect to the changing magnitude in future scenarios, varying from one model to the other. Two types of bias correction techniques are shown here: (1) a simple bias correction using a percentile-based quantile-mapping algorithm and (2) a simple but improved bias correction method, a cumulative distribution function (CDF; Weibull distribution function)-based quantile-mapping algorithm. This study shows that the percentile-based quantile mapping method gives results similar to the CDF (Weibull)-based quantile mapping method, and both the methods are comparable. The bias correction is applied on temperature and precipitation variables for present climate and future projected data to make use of it in a simple statistical model to understand the future changes in crop production over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season. In total, 12 CMIP5 models are used for Historical (1901-2005), RCP4.5 (2005-2100), and RCP8.5 (2005-2100) scenarios. The climate index from each CMIP5 model and the observed agricultural yield index over the Indian region are used in a regression model to project the changes in the agricultural yield over India from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results revealed a better convergence of model projections in the bias corrected data compared to the uncorrected data. The study can be extended to localized regional domains aimed at understanding the changes in the agricultural productivity in the future with an agro-economy or a simple statistical model. The statistical model indicated that the total food grain yield is going to increase over the Indian region in the future, the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 50 kg/ ha for the RCP4.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100, and the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 90 kg/ha for the RCP8.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100. There are many studies using bias correction techniques, but this study applies the bias correction technique to future climate scenario data from CMIP5 models and applied it to crop statistics to find future crop yield changes over the Indian region.

Survival distributions impact the power of randomized placebo-phase design and parallel groups randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Abrahamyan, Lusine; Li, Chuan Silvia; Beyene, Joseph; Willan, Andrew R; Feldman, Brian M

2011-03-01

The study evaluated the power of the randomized placebo-phase design (RPPD)-a new design of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), compared with the traditional parallel groups design, assuming various response time distributions. In the RPPD, at some point, all subjects receive the experimental therapy, and the exposure to placebo is for only a short fixed period of time. For the study, an object-oriented simulation program was written in R. The power of the simulated trials was evaluated using six scenarios, where the treatment response times followed the exponential, Weibull, or lognormal distributions. The median response time was assumed to be 355 days for the placebo and 42 days for the experimental drug. Based on the simulation results, the sample size requirements to achieve the same level of power were different under different response time to treatment distributions. The scenario where the response times followed the exponential distribution had the highest sample size requirement. In most scenarios, the parallel groups RCT had higher power compared with the RPPD. The sample size requirement varies depending on the underlying hazard distribution. The RPPD requires more subjects to achieve a similar power to the parallel groups design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the glidescope®, flexible fibreoptic intubating bronchoscope, iPhone modified bronchoscope, and the Macintosh laryngoscope in normal and difficult airways: a manikin study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Smart phone technology is becoming increasingly integrated into medical care. Our study compared an iPhone modified flexible fibreoptic bronchoscope as an intubation aid and clinical teaching tool with an unmodified bronchoscope, Glidescope® and Macintosh laryngoscope in a simulated normal and difficult airway scenario. Methods Sixty three anaesthesia providers, 21 consultant anaesthetists, 21 registrars and 21 anaesthetic nurses attempted to intubate a MegaCode Kelly™ manikin, comparing a normal and difficult airway scenario for each device. Primary endpoints were time to view the vocal cords (TVC), time to successful intubation (TSI) and number of failed intubations with each device. Secondary outcomes included participant rated device usability and preference for each scenario. Advantages and disadvantages of the iPhone modified bronchoscope were also discussed. Results There was no significant difference in TVC with the iPhone modified bronchoscope compared with the Macintosh blade (P = 1.0) or unmodified bronchoscope (P = 0.155). TVC was significantly shorter with the Glidescope compared with the Macintosh blade (P < 0.001), iPhone (P < 0.001) and unmodified bronchoscope (P = 0.011). The iPhone bronchoscope TSI was significantly longer than all other devices (P < 0.001). There was no difference between anaesthetic consultant or registrar TVC (P = 1.0) or TSI (P = 0.252), with both being less than the nurses (P < 0.001). Consultant anaesthetists and nurses had a higher intubation failure rate with the iPhone modified bronchoscope compared with the registrars. Although more difficult to use, similar proportions of consultants (14/21), registrars (15/21) and nurses (15/21) indicated that they would be prepared to use the iPhone modified bronchoscope in their clinical practice. The Glidescope was rated easiest to use (P < 0.001) and was the preferred device by all participants for the difficult airway scenario. Conclusions The iPhone modified bronchoscope, in its current configuration, was found to be more difficult to use compared with the Glidescope® and unmodified bronchoscope; however it offered several advantages for teaching fibreoptic intubation technique when video-assisted bronchoscopy was unavailable. PMID:24575885

Comparison of traditional advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) course instruction vs. a scenario-based, performance oriented team instruction (SPOTI) method for Korean paramedic students.

PubMed

Lee, Christopher C; Im, Mark; Kim, Tae Min; Stapleton, Edward R; Kim, Kyuseok; Suh, Gil Joon; Singer, Adam J; Henry, Mark C

2010-01-01

Current Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) course instruction involves a 2-day course with traditional lectures and limited team interaction. We wish to explore the advantages of a scenario-based performance-oriented team instruction (SPOTI) method to implement core ACLS skills for non-English-speaking international paramedic students. The objective of this study was to determine if scenario-based, performance-oriented team instruction (SPOTI) improves educational outcomes for the ACLS instruction of Korean paramedic students. Thirty Korean paramedic students were randomly selected into two groups. One group of 15 students was taught the traditional ACLS course. The other 15 students were instructed using a SPOTI method. Each group was tested using ACLS megacode examinations endorsed by the American Heart Association. All 30 students passed the ACLS megacode examination. In the traditional ACLS study group an average of 85% of the core skills were met. In the SPOTI study group an average of 93% of the core skills were met. In particular, the SPOTI study group excelled at physical examination skills such as airway opening, assessment of breathing, signs of circulation, and compression rates. In addition, the SPOTI group performed with higher marks on rhythm recognition compared to the traditional group. The traditional group performed with higher marks at providing proper drug dosages compared to the SPOTI students. However, the students enrolled in the SPOTI method resulted in higher megacode core compliance scores compared to students trained in traditional ACLS course instruction. These differences did not achieve statistical significance due to the small sample size. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of autofluorescence and toluidine blue in the differentiation of oral dysplastic and neoplastic lesions from non dysplastic and neoplastic lesions: a cross-sectional study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petruzzi, Massimo; Lucchese, Alberta; Nardi, Gianna Maria; Lauritano, Dorina; Favia, Gianfranco; Serpico, Rosario; Grassi, Felice Roberto

2014-07-01

The objective was to compare toluidine blue (TB) and autofluorescence (AF) for the detection of oral dysplasia and squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) in clinically suspicious lesions according to conventional examination. Fifty-six clinically suspicious lesions were subjected to AF and TB examination. Data were compared using two different scenarios: in the first, mild dysplasia was considered as positive, while in the second, it was considered as negative. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy, and concordance were calculated. AF sensitivity and specificity were 70.0 and 57.7%, respectively, while TB showed a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 61.5%. The sensitivity increased in the second scenario in both AF (76.5%) and TB (88.2%). The specificity decreased in AF and TB, showing the same value (51.3%). PPV was higher in TB than in AF (70.6 versus 65.6%) and similarly for NPV (72.7 versus 62.5%). In the second scenario, TB PPV was 44.1% and NPV was 90.9% AF PPV was 40.6% and NPV was 83.3%. TB showed greater accuracy than AF in the first scenario (62.5 versus 58.9%). AF and TB are both sensitive but not specific in OSCC and dysplasia diagnosis.

From mixed to separate collection of solid waste: benefits for the town of Zavidovići (Bosnia and Herzegovina).

PubMed

Vaccari, Mentore; Di Bella, Veronica; Vitali, Francesco; Collivignarelli, Carlo

2013-02-01

In Bosnia and Herzegovina only 50% of the municipalities have a well-organized service for (mixed) waste collection and disposal. Illegal dumping is very common, in particular in rural areas, which are not regularly served by any service of collection. This situation leads to serious risks for public health and has dangerous environmental impacts. In Zavidovići the municipality is trying to meet high standards in the delivery of services of waste collection, but is constrained by scarce financial and technical resources. Different scenarios for the implementation of a system of separate collection in Zavidovići were elaborated in order to provide a useful tool for decision making by comparing costs and environmental & economic benefits of each scenario. Six scenarios were considered, based on different recovery rates for plastic, paper & cardboard, and metals. Benefits resulting from the implementation of each of the proposed scenarios are compared in terms of savings of landfill volume and costs. The study concludes that the adoption of a system of separate collection could generate positive impacts on all the stakeholders involved in the solid waste management sector in Zavidovići and could contribute to the compliance of European standards in many Central and Eastern European countries as established by a number of national environmental protection strategies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the near field/far field model and the advanced reach tool (ART) model V1.5: exposure estimates to benzene during parts washing with mineral spirits.

PubMed

LeBlanc, Mallory; Allen, Joseph G; Herrick, Robert F; Stewart, James H

2018-03-01

The Advanced Reach Tool V1.5 (ART) is a mathematical model for occupational exposures conceptually based on, but implemented differently than, the "classic" Near Field/Far Field (NF/FF) exposure model. The NF/FF model conceptualizes two distinct exposure "zones"; the near field, within approximately 1m of the breathing zone, and the far field, consisting of the rest of the room in which the exposure occurs. ART has been reported to provide "realistic and reasonable worst case" estimates of the exposure distribution. In this study, benzene exposure during the use of a metal parts washer was modeled using ART V1.5, and compared to actual measured workers samples and to NF/FF model results from three previous studies. Next, the exposure concentrations expected to be exceeded 25%, 10% and 5% of the time for the exposure scenario were calculated using ART. Lastly, ART exposure estimates were compared with and without Bayesian adjustment. The modeled parts washing benzene exposure scenario included distinct tasks, e.g. spraying, brushing, rinsing and soaking/drying. Because ART can directly incorporate specific types of tasks that are part of the exposure scenario, the present analysis identified each task's determinants of exposure and performance time, thus extending the work of the previous three studies where the process of parts washing was modeled as one event. The ART 50th percentile exposure estimate for benzene (0.425ppm) more closely approximated the reported measured mean value of 0.50ppm than the NF/FF model estimates of 0.33ppm, 0.070ppm or 0.2ppm obtained from other modeling studies of this exposure scenario. The ART model with the Bayesian analysis provided the closest estimate to the measured value (0.50ppm). ART (with Bayesian adjustment) was then used to assess the 75th, the 90th and 95th percentile exposures, predicting that on randomly selected days during this parts washing exposure scenario, 25% of the benzene exposures would be above 0.70ppm; 10% above 0.95ppm; and 5% above 1.15ppm. These exposure estimates at the three different percentiles of the ART exposure distribution refer to the modeled exposure scenario not a specific workplace or worker. This study provides a detailed comparison of modeling tools currently available to occupational hygienists and other exposure assessors. Possible applications are considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Simulation analysis of resource flexibility on healthcare processes

PubMed Central

Simwita, Yusta W; Helgheim, Berit I

2016-01-01

Purpose This paper uses discrete event simulation to explore the best resource flexibility scenario and examine the effect of implementing resource flexibility on different stages of patient treatment process. Specifically we investigate the effect of resource flexibility on patient waiting time and throughput in an orthopedic care process. We further seek to explore on how implementation of resource flexibility on patient treatment processes affects patient access to healthcare services. We focus on two resources, namely, orthopedic surgeon and operating room. Methods The observational approach was used to collect process data. The developed model was validated by comparing the simulation output with actual patient data collected from the studied orthopedic care process. We developed different scenarios to identify the best resource flexibility scenario and explore the effect of resource flexibility on patient waiting time, throughput, and future changes in demand. The developed scenarios focused on creating flexibility on service capacity of this care process by altering the amount of additional human resource capacity at different stages of patient care process and extending the use of operating room capacity. Results The study found that resource flexibility can improve responsiveness to patient demand in the treatment process. Testing different scenarios showed that the introduction of resource flexibility reduces patient waiting time and improves throughput. The simulation results show that patient access to health services can be improved by implementing resource flexibility at different stages of the patient treatment process. Conclusion This study contributes to the current health care literature by explaining how implementing resource flexibility at different stages of patient care processes can improve ability to respond to increasing patients demands. This study was limited to a single patient process; studies focusing on additional processes are recommended. PMID:27785046

Simulation analysis of resource flexibility on healthcare processes.

PubMed

Simwita, Yusta W; Helgheim, Berit I

2016-01-01

This paper uses discrete event simulation to explore the best resource flexibility scenario and examine the effect of implementing resource flexibility on different stages of patient treatment process. Specifically we investigate the effect of resource flexibility on patient waiting time and throughput in an orthopedic care process. We further seek to explore on how implementation of resource flexibility on patient treatment processes affects patient access to healthcare services. We focus on two resources, namely, orthopedic surgeon and operating room. The observational approach was used to collect process data. The developed model was validated by comparing the simulation output with actual patient data collected from the studied orthopedic care process. We developed different scenarios to identify the best resource flexibility scenario and explore the effect of resource flexibility on patient waiting time, throughput, and future changes in demand. The developed scenarios focused on creating flexibility on service capacity of this care process by altering the amount of additional human resource capacity at different stages of patient care process and extending the use of operating room capacity. The study found that resource flexibility can improve responsiveness to patient demand in the treatment process. Testing different scenarios showed that the introduction of resource flexibility reduces patient waiting time and improves throughput. The simulation results show that patient access to health services can be improved by implementing resource flexibility at different stages of the patient treatment process. This study contributes to the current health care literature by explaining how implementing resource flexibility at different stages of patient care processes can improve ability to respond to increasing patients demands. This study was limited to a single patient process; studies focusing on additional processes are recommended.

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

PubMed

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

Two approaches for incorporating climate change into natural resource management planning at Wind Cave National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Long, Andrew J.; Stamm, John; King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominque M.; Norton, Parker A.

2014-01-01

Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches. Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches.

Describing treatment effects to patients.

PubMed

Moxey, Annette; O'Connell, Dianne; McGettigan, Patricia; Henry, David

2003-11-01

To examine the impact of different presentations of equivalent information (framing) on treatment decisions faced by patients. A systematic review of the published literature was conducted. English language publications allocating participants to different frames were retrieved using electronic and bibliographic searches. Two reviewers examined each article for inclusion, and assessed methodological quality. Study characteristics were tabulated and where possible, relative risks (RR; 95% confidence intervals) were calculated to estimate intervention effects. Thirty-seven articles, yielding 40 experimental studies, were included. Studies examined treatment (N = 24), immunization (N = 5), or health behavior scenarios (N = 11). Overall, active treatments were preferred when outcomes were described in terms of relative rather than absolute risk reductions or number needed to treat. Surgery was preferred to other treatments when treatment efficacy was presented in a positive frame (survival) rather than a negative frame (mortality) (relative risk [RR] = 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39 to 1.64). Framing effects were less obvious for immunization and health behavior scenarios. Those with little interest in the behavior at baseline were influenced by framing, particularly when information was presented as gains. In studies judged to be of good methodological quality and/or examining actual decisions, the framing effect, although still evident, was less convincing compared to the results of all included studies. Framing effects varied with the type of scenario, responder characteristics, scenario manipulations, and study quality. When describing treatment effects to patients, expressing the information in more than one way may present a balanced view to patients and enable them to make informed decisions.

Enhanced genetic algorithm optimization model for a single reservoir operation based on hydropower generation: case study of Mosul reservoir, northern Iraq.

PubMed

Al-Aqeeli, Yousif H; Lee, T S; Abd Aziz, S

2016-01-01

Achievement of the optimal hydropower generation from operation of water reservoirs, is a complex problems. The purpose of this study was to formulate and improve an approach of a genetic algorithm optimization model (GAOM) in order to increase the maximization of annual hydropower generation for a single reservoir. For this purpose, two simulation algorithms were drafted and applied independently in that GAOM during 20 scenarios (years) for operation of Mosul reservoir, northern Iraq. The first algorithm was based on the traditional simulation of reservoir operation, whilst the second algorithm (Salg) enhanced the GAOM by changing the population values of GA through a new simulation process of reservoir operation. The performances of these two algorithms were evaluated through the comparison of their optimal values of annual hydropower generation during the 20 scenarios of operating. The GAOM achieved an increase in hydropower generation in 17 scenarios using these two algorithms, with the Salg being superior in all scenarios. All of these were done prior adding the evaporation (Ev) and precipitation (Pr) to the water balance equation. Next, the GAOM using the Salg was applied by taking into consideration the volumes of these two parameters. In this case, the optimal values obtained from the GAOM were compared, firstly with their counterpart that found using the same algorithm without taking into consideration of Ev and Pr, secondly with the observed values. The first comparison showed that the optimal values obtained in this case decreased in all scenarios, whilst maintaining the good results compared with the observed in the second comparison. The results proved the effectiveness of the Salg in increasing the hydropower generation through the enhanced approach of the GAOM. In addition, the results indicated to the importance of taking into account the Ev and Pr in the modelling of reservoirs operation.

Methods to estimate the between‐study variance and its uncertainty in meta‐analysis†

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dan; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Bender, Ralf; Bowden, Jack; Knapp, Guido; Kuss, Oliver; Higgins, Julian PT; Langan, Dean; Salanti, Georgia

2015-01-01

Meta‐analyses are typically used to estimate the overall/mean of an outcome of interest. However, inference about between‐study variability, which is typically modelled using a between‐study variance parameter, is usually an additional aim. The DerSimonian and Laird method, currently widely used by default to estimate the between‐study variance, has been long challenged. Our aim is to identify known methods for estimation of the between‐study variance and its corresponding uncertainty, and to summarise the simulation and empirical evidence that compares them. We identified 16 estimators for the between‐study variance, seven methods to calculate confidence intervals, and several comparative studies. Simulation studies suggest that for both dichotomous and continuous data the estimator proposed by Paule and Mandel and for continuous data the restricted maximum likelihood estimator are better alternatives to estimate the between‐study variance. Based on the scenarios and results presented in the published studies, we recommend the Q‐profile method and the alternative approach based on a ‘generalised Cochran between‐study variance statistic’ to compute corresponding confidence intervals around the resulting estimates. Our recommendations are based on a qualitative evaluation of the existing literature and expert consensus. Evidence‐based recommendations require an extensive simulation study where all methods would be compared under the same scenarios. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26332144

Vaccination Strategies: a comparative study in an epidemic scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prates, D. B.; Jardim, C. L. T. F.; Ferreira, L. A. F.; da Silva, J. M.; Kritz, M. V.

2016-08-01

Epidemics are an extremely important matter of study within the Mathematical Modeling area and can be widely found in the literature. Some epidemiological models use differential equations, which are very sensible to parameters, to represent and describe the diseases mathematically. For this work, a variation of the SIR model is discussed and applied to a certain epidemic scenario, wherein vaccination is introduced through two different strategies: constant vaccination and vaccination in pulses. Other epidemiological and population aspects are also considered, such as mortality/natality and infection rates. The analysis and results are performed through numerical solutions of the model and a special attention is given to the discussion generated by the paramenters variation.

Interpretation bias and social anxiety: does interpretation bias mediate the relationship between trait social anxiety and state anxiety responses?

PubMed

Chen, Junwen; Milne, Kirby; Dayman, Janet; Kemps, Eva

2018-05-23

Two studies aimed to examine whether high socially anxious individuals are more likely to negatively interpret ambiguous social scenarios and facial expressions compared to low socially anxious individuals. We also examined whether interpretation bias serves as a mediator of the relationship between trait social anxiety and state anxiety responses, in particular current state anxiety, bodily sensations, and perceived probability and cost of negative evaluation pertaining to a speech task. Study 1 used ambiguous social scenarios and Study 2 used ambiguous facial expressions as stimuli to objectively assess interpretation bias. Undergraduate students with high and low social anxiety completed measures of state anxiety responses at three time points: baseline, after the interpretation bias task, and after the preparation for an impromptu speech. Results showed that high socially anxious individuals were more likely to endorse threat interpretations for ambiguous social scenarios and to interpret ambiguous faces as negative than low socially anxious individuals. Furthermore, negative interpretations mediated the relationship between trait social anxiety and perceived probability of negative evaluation pertaining to the speech task in Study 1 but not Study 2. The present studies provide new insight into the role of interpretation bias in social anxiety.

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit temperature increase and pH and dissolved oxygen decrease relative to the reference scenario without cumulative CO2 emissions overshoot. Furthermore, our results show that the higher the level of overshoot, the lower the reversibility of changes in the marine environment.

Human health risk assessment case study: an abandoned metal smelter site in Poland.

PubMed

Wcisło, Eleonora; Ioven, Dawn; Kucharski, Rafal; Szdzuj, Jerzy

2002-05-01

United States Environmental Protection Agency methodologies for human health risk assessment (HRA) were applied in a Brownfields Demonstration Project on the Warynski smelter site (WSS), an abandoned industrial site at Piekary Slaskie town, Upper Silesia, Poland. The HRA included the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and the development of risk-based preliminary remedial goals (RBPRGs). The HRA focused on surface area covered with waste materials, which were evaluated with regard to the potential risks they may pose to humans. Cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc were proposed as the contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) at WSS based on archive data on chemical composition of waste located on WSS. For the defined future land use patterns, the industrial (I) and recreational (II) exposure scenarios were assumed and evaluated. The combined hazard index for all COPCs was 3.1E+00 for Scenario I and 3.2E+00 for Scenario II. Regarding potential carcinogenic risks associated with the inhalation route, only cadmium was a contributor, with risks of 1.6E-06 and 2.6E-07 for Scenario I and Scenario II, respectively. The results of the BRA indicated that the potential health risks at WSS were mainly associated with waste material exposure to cadmium (industrial and recreational scenarios) and lead (industrial scenario). RBPRGs calculated under the industrial scenario were 1.17E+03 and 1.62E+03 mg/kg for cadmium and lead, respectively. The RBPRG for cadmium was 1.18E+03 mg/kg under the recreational scenario. The BRA results, as well as RBCs, are comparable for both scenarios, so it is impossible to prioritize land use patterns for WSS based on these results. For choosing a future land use pattern or an appropriate redevelopment option, different factors would be decisive in the decision-making process, e.g., social, market needs, technical feasibility and costs of redevelopment actions or acceptance of local community.

Constraints on brane-world inflation from the CMB power spectrum: revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, Mayukh R.; Mathews, Grant J.

2018-03-01

We analyze the Randal Sundrum brane-world inflation scenario in the context of the latest CMB constraints from Planck. We summarize constraints on the most popular classes of models and explore some more realistic inflaton effective potentials. The constraint on standard inflationary parameters changes in the brane-world scenario. We confirm that in general the brane-world scenario increases the tensor-to-scalar ratio, thus making this paradigm less consistent with the Planck constraints. Indeed, when BICEP2/Keck constraints are included, all monomial potentials in the brane-world scenario become disfavored compared to the standard scenario. However, for natural inflation the brane-world scenario could fit the constraints better due to larger allowed values of e-foldings N before the end of inflation in the brane-world.

Choice of Target Population Weights in Rater Comparability Scoring and Equating. Research Report. ETS RR-13-03

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puhan, Gautam

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate that the choice of sample weights when defining the target population under poststratification equating can be a critical factor in determining the accuracy of the equating results under a unique equating scenario, known as "rater comparability scoring and equating." The nature of data…

Emotional and sexual jealousy as a function of sex and sexual orientation in a Brazilian sample.

PubMed

de Souza, Altay Alves Lino; Verderane, Michele Pereira; Taira, Juliana Tieme; Otta, Emma

2006-04-01

The goal of the present study was to compare the relative distress of homosexual and heterosexual Brazilian men and women on scenarios in which they imagined their partners sexually or emotionally involved with another person, using a forced-choice paradigm and continuous measures. Participants were 68 heterosexual men, 72 heterosexual women, 42 homosexual men, and 35 homosexual women. On the forced-choice questions heterosexual men (39 on one question and 37 on the other) were more upset than their female counterparts (21 on one question and 15 on the other) by scenarios of sexual infidelity than those of emotional infidelity. On questions using continuous measures no significant difference was found between pleasurable sex and attachment scenarios for heterosexual women or heterosexual men. On the highly upsetting scenarios heterosexual men discriminated between flirting and both pleasurable sex and attachment scenarios, being less disturbed by the former. In contrast, heterosexual women were equally distressed by the three scenarios. Scores for the homosexual men and homosexual women fell in between those of the heterosexual men and heterosexual women and did not show a clear cut preference for the sexual infidelity or the emotional alternative on the forced-choice paradigm. However, on the continuous measures of jealousy homosexuals resembled heterosexuals of the opposite sex. There was no evidence that jealousy would be less intense among homosexuals although reproductive outcomes were not at risk.

TRU Waste Management Program cost/schedule optimization analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Detamore, J.A.; Raudenbush, M.H.; Wolaver, R.W.

1985-10-01

The cost/schedule optimization task is a necessary function to insure that program goals and plans are optimized from a cost and schedule aspect. Results of this study will offer DOE information with which it can establish, within institutional constraints, the most efficient program for the long-term management and disposal of contact handled transuranic waste (CH-TRU). To this end, a comprehensive review of program cost/schedule tradeoffs has been made, to identify any major cost saving opportunities that may be realized by modification of current program plans. It was decided that all promising scenarios would be explored, and institutional limitations to implementationmore » would be described. Since a virtually limitless number of possible scenarios can be envisioned, it was necessary to distill these possibilities into a manageable number of alternatives. The resultant scenarios were described in the cost/schedule strategy and work plan document. Each scenario was compared with the base case: waste processing at the originating site; transport of CH-TRU wastes in TRUPACT; shipment of drums in 6-Packs; 25 year stored waste workoff; WIPP operational 10/88, with all sites shipping to WIPP beginning 10/88; and no processing at WIPP. Major savings were identified in two alternate scenarios: centralize waste processing at INEL and eliminate rail shipment of TRUPACT. No attempt was made to calculate savings due to combination of scenarios. 1 ref., 5 figs., 1 tab. (MHB)« less

Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Friesz, Aaron M.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Wilson, Tamara; Soulard, Christopher E.; Knuppe, Michelle; Van Hofwegen, Travis

2014-01-01

Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 5 Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit datasets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of 10 anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting have relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less 15 forest cutting. Stand ages differ substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, 20 biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

PubMed

Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

2016-12-01

A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

Low-Carbon Watershed Management: Potential of Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Wastewater Treatment in Rural Vietnam.

PubMed

Nguyen, Lan Huong; Mohan, Geetha; Jian, Pu; Takemoto, Kazuhiko; Fukushi, Kensuke

2016-01-01

Currently in many cities and rural areas of Vietnam, wastewater is discharged to the environment without any treatment, which emits considerable amount of greenhouse gas (GHG), particularly methane. In this study, four GHG emission scenarios were examined, as well as the baseline scenario, in order to verify the potential of GHG reduction from domestic wastewater with adequate treatment facilities. The ArcGIS and ArcHydro tools were employed to visualize and analyze GHG emissions resulting from discharge of untreated wastewater, in rural areas of Vu Gia Thu Bon river basin, Vietnam. By applying the current IPCC guidelines for GHG emissions, we found that a reduction of GHG emissions can be achieved through treatment of domestic wastewater in the studied area. Compared with baseline scenario, a maximum 16% of total GHG emissions can be reduced, in which 30% of households existing latrines are substituted by Japanese Johkasou technology and other 20% of domestic wastewater is treated by conventional activated sludge.

Low-Carbon Watershed Management: Potential of Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Wastewater Treatment in Rural Vietnam

PubMed Central

Mohan, Geetha; Jian, Pu; Takemoto, Kazuhiko; Fukushi, Kensuke

2016-01-01

Currently in many cities and rural areas of Vietnam, wastewater is discharged to the environment without any treatment, which emits considerable amount of greenhouse gas (GHG), particularly methane. In this study, four GHG emission scenarios were examined, as well as the baseline scenario, in order to verify the potential of GHG reduction from domestic wastewater with adequate treatment facilities. The ArcGIS and ArcHydro tools were employed to visualize and analyze GHG emissions resulting from discharge of untreated wastewater, in rural areas of Vu Gia Thu Bon river basin, Vietnam. By applying the current IPCC guidelines for GHG emissions, we found that a reduction of GHG emissions can be achieved through treatment of domestic wastewater in the studied area. Compared with baseline scenario, a maximum 16% of total GHG emissions can be reduced, in which 30% of households existing latrines are substituted by Japanese Johkasou technology and other 20% of domestic wastewater is treated by conventional activated sludge. PMID:27699202

Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

2013-12-01

In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario. A comparison of two watersheds - Alameda Creek, an urbanized watershed, and Upper Stony Creek, impacted by intensified agriculture, demonstrates the relative contribution of urbanization and climate change to water supply. In Upper Stony Creek, where 24% of grassland is converted to agriculture in the A1B scenario, a hotter, dryer 4-year time period could lead to a 40% reduction in streamflow compared to present day. In Alameda Creek, for the same scenario, 47% of grassland is converted to urbanized lands and streamflow may increase by 11%, resulting in a recharge:runoff ratio of 0.26; though if urbanization does not take place, streamflow could decrease by 64% and the recharge:runoff ratio would be 1.2. Model outputs quantify the impact of urbanization on water supply and show the importance of soil storage capacity. Scenarios have applications for climate-smart conservation and land use planning by identifying outcomes associated with coupled future land use scenarios and more variable and extreme potential future climates.

An ecological perspective of the energy basis of sustainable Bolivian natural resources: Forests and natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izursa, Jose-Luis

Bolivia, traditionally known for being a country rich in natural resources, has suffered from a constant exploitation of its natural resources benefiting only small groups in and outside the country. The devastation of natural resources that occurred for many years was of concern to the latest government, rural communities and indigenous groups. As a result, Bolivia has a more sustainability-oriented forest law that has a strong orientation towards the utilization of natural resources at a national level and encompasses a fast-growing forestry industry than in previous years. In this dissertation, the wealth of Bolivia's national system was evaluated using solar emergy. Emergy (spelled with "m") is the sum of all energy of one form needed to develop a flow of energy of another form, over a period of time. The basic idea is that solar energy is our ultimate energy source and by expressing the value of products in solar emergy units, it becomes possible to compare different kinds of energy, allowing to express the value for the natural resources in Emergy Dollars. It was found out that Bolivia relies heavily in its natural resources and that its emergy exchange ratio with its international trading partners changed from 12.2 to 1 in 2001 to 6.2 to 1 in 2005. This means that Bolivia went from export 12.2 emdollars of goods for each 1 it received in 2001 to export 6.2 emdollars of products for each 1 it received in 2005. The study also showed that under forest certification practices less emergy is removed from forests (1.49E+19 sej/yr) compared to the amount of emergy removed (2.36E+19 sej/yr) under traditional uncertified practices, reflecting that forest ecology does better under certification. The "Ecologically-based Development for the Bolivian Industrial Forestry System" (DEBBIF) simulation model constructed during this study, compared four different scenarios: the Reference Scenario, the Increased Export Scenario, the Increased Domestic Use Scenario and the National Industrialization Scenario. Using two different levels of increment for each scenario, the outcomes of six variables were analyzed: soil, wood, natural gas, assets, money and debt. It was found that if the country doubles its use of natural resources to generate finished products, this will build more assets for Bolivia, and represent more income for the country and a better rate of emergy per person.

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico)

PubMed Central

Tysinger, Bryan; Goldman, Dana P; Wong, Rebeca

2017-01-01

Objective Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico’s older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. Design A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. Participants Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. Outcome measures We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. Results In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001–2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. Discussion Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence. PMID:29074514

The space station assembly phase: Flight telerobotic servicer feasibility. Volume 2: Methodology and case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.; Gyamfi, Max A.; Volkmer, Kent; Zimmerman, Wayne F.

1987-01-01

A methodology is described for examining the feasibility of a Flight Telerobotic Servicer (FTS) using two assembly scenarios, defined at the EVA task level, for the 30 shuttle flights (beginning with MB-1) over a four-year period. Performing all EVA tasks by crew only is compared to a scenario in which crew EVA is augmented by FTS. A reference FTS concept is used as a technology baseline and life-cycle cost analysis is performed to highlight cost tradeoffs. The methodology, procedure, and data used to complete the analysis are documented in detail.

Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shope, J.B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, C.A.

2015-01-01

Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast for 2081–2100 using output from four coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Global climate model wind fields were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. December–February 95th percentile extreme significant wave heights under both climate scenarios decreased by 2100 compared to 1976–2010 historical values. Trends under both scenarios were similar, with the higher-emission RCP8.5 scenario displaying a greater decrease in extreme significant wave heights than where emissions are reduced in the RCP4.5 scenario. Central equatorial Pacific Islands displayed the greatest departure from historical values; significant wave heights decreased there by as much as 0.32 m during December–February and associated wave directions rotated approximately 30° clockwise during June–August compared to hindcast data.

Characteristics and Scenarios Projection of Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Hao, Zhenchun; Ju, Qin; Jiang, Weijuan; Zhu, Changjun

2013-01-01

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least. PMID:23970827

Supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania: a prognosis for 2012-2030.

PubMed

Vanckaviciene, Aurika; Starkiene, Liudvika; Macijauskiene, Jūrate

2014-07-01

This is the first ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for radiographers in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2012-2030. Supply was calculated using two scenarios with differing duration of studies, annual student drop-out rates, rates of failure to start working, the annual number of new entrants into the labor market, and emigration rates. Annual mortality rates, the number of first-year students, and retirement rates were evaluated equally in both scenarios. Two projections of the demand for radiographers, based on the population's differing (by age and gender), need for outpatient radiology services, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance scans. Subsequently, the supply and demand scenarios were compared. Evaluation of the perspective supply and demand scenarios - which are the most probable - revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, the predicted specialist shortage will reach 0.13 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population, and in 2030-0.37 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population. Considering the changes in education of radiographers, the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, and the increasing need for radiographers' services, the supply of radiographers during the next two decades will be insufficient. To meet the forecasted demand for radiographers in the perspective scenario, the number of students choosing this specialty from 2013 on should increase by up to 30%. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Potential effects of four Flaming Gorge Dam hydropower operational scenarios on the fishes of the Green River, Utah and Colorado

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.W.

1995-09-01

Aerial videography and modeling were used to evaluate the impacts of four hydropower operational scenarios at Flaming Gorge Dam, Utah, on trout and native fishes in the Green River, Utah and Colorado. The four operational scenarios studied were year-round high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations, and seasonally adjusted steady flows. Impacts on trout were evaluated by examining differences among scenarios in the areas of inundated substrates that serve as spawning and feeding habitat. All scenarios would provide at least 23 acres per mile of habitat for spawning and food production; seasonally adjusted operations would provide additionalmore » areas during periods of sustained high release. Seasonally adjusted high fluctuations would increase inundated areas by 12 to 26% for a short period in winter and spring, but food production and reproduction would not be expected to increase. Seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations and steady flows would produce similar increases in area, but the longer period of inundation could also result in increased food production and provide additional spawning sites for trout. Impacts on native fishes were assessed by examining daily changes in backwater nursery areas. Compared with year-round high fluctuations, the daily changes in backwater area would decrease by about 47, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. Similarly, daily stage fluctuations during the nursery period would decrease by 72, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. These reductions in daily fluctuations in backwater area and stage would improve conditions in nursery habitats and could in turn improve recruitment and overwinter survival. Introduced fish species could also benefit from the seasonally adjusted operational scenarios.« less

Assessing the potential impact of increased participation in higher education on mortality: evidence from 21 European populations.

PubMed

Kulhánová, Ivana; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Judge, Ken; Looman, Caspar W N; Eikemo, Terje A; Bopp, Matthias; Deboosere, Patrick; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Rychtaříková, Jitka; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Menvielle, Gwenn; Mackenbach, Johan P

2014-09-01

Although higher education has been associated with lower mortality rates in many studies, the effect of potential improvements in educational distribution on future mortality levels is unknown. We therefore estimated the impact of projected increases in higher education on mortality in European populations. We used mortality and population data according to educational level from 21 European populations and developed counterfactual scenarios. The first scenario represented the improvement in the future distribution of educational attainment as expected on the basis of an assumption of cohort replacement. We estimated the effect of this counterfactual scenario on mortality with a 10-15-year time horizon among men and women aged 30-79 years using a specially developed tool based on population attributable fractions (PAF). We compared this with a second, upward levelling scenario in which everyone has obtained tertiary education. The reduction of mortality in the cohort replacement scenario ranged from 1.9 to 10.1% for men and from 1.7 to 9.0% for women. The reduction of mortality in the upward levelling scenario ranged from 22.0 to 57.0% for men and from 9.6 to 50.0% for women. The cohort replacement scenario was estimated to achieve only part (4-25% (men) and 10-31% (women)) of the potential mortality decrease seen in the upward levelling scenario. We concluded that the effect of on-going improvements in educational attainment on average mortality in the population differs across Europe, and can be substantial. Further investments in education may have important positive side-effects on population health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness of Ibrutinib Compared With Obinutuzumab With Chlorambucil in Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Patients With Comorbidities in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Sinha, Richa; Redekop, William Ken

2018-02-01

Ibrutinib shows superiority over obinutuzumab with chlorambucil (G-Clb) in untreated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia with comorbidities who cannot tolerate fludarabine-based therapy. However, ibrutinib is relatively more expensive than G-Clb. In this study we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of ibrutinib compared with G-Clb from the United Kingdom (UK) health care perspective. A 3-state semi-Markov model was parameterized to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits associated with ibrutinib compared with G-Clb as first-line treatment. Idelalisib with rituximab was considered as second-line treatment. Unit costs were derived from standard sources, (dis)utilities from UK elicitation studies, progression-free survival, progression, and death from clinical trials, and postprogression survival and background mortality from published sources. Additional analyses included threshold analyses with ibrutinib and idelalisib at various discount rates, and scenario analysis with ibrutinib as second-line treatment after G-Clb. An average gain of 1.49 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was estimated for ibrutinib compared with G-Clb at an average additional cost of £112,835 per patient. To be cost-effective as per the UK thresholds, ibrutinib needs to be discounted at 30%, 40%, and 50% if idelalisib is discounted at 0%, 25%, and 50% respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £75,648 and £-143,279 per QALY gained for the base-case and scenario analyses, respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the results. As per base-case analyses, an adequate discount on ibrutinib is required to make it cost-effective as per the UK thresholds. The scenario analysis substantiates ibrutinib's cost-savings for the UK National Health Services and advocates patient's access to ibrutinib in the UK. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Permethrin exposure from fabric-treated military uniforms under different wear-time scenarios.

PubMed

Proctor, Susan P; Maule, Alexis L; Heaton, Kristin J; Adam, Gina E

2014-11-01

The objective of the project was to ascertain whether urinary biomarkers of permethrin exposure are detected after wearing post-tailored, fabric-treated military uniforms under two different wear-time exposure scenarios. Study A occurred over 3.5 days and involved six participants wearing treated uniforms continuously for 30-32 h. Urine collection occurred at scheduled time points before, during, and after wearing the uniform. Study B, conducted over 19 days, included 11 participants wearing treated uniforms for 3 consecutive days, 8 h each day (with urine collection before, during, and after wear). Urinary biomarkers of permethrin (3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3PBA), cis- 2,2-(dichlorovinyl)-2,2-dimethylcyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid (cDCCA), trans- 2,2-(dichlorovinyl)-2,2-dimethylcyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid (tDCCA)) were detected during and after wear. Biomarker detection generally occurred over the 10- to 12-h period after putting on the uniform and subsided 24 h following uniform removal (in both Study A and B scenarios). Those wearing permethrin-treated uniforms under the longer wear-time scenario (Study A) excreted significantly higher cumulative mean levels compared with those in Study B (3.29 times higher for 3PBA and 2.23 times higher for the sum of c/tDCCA (P≤0.001)). Findings suggest that wearing permethrin-treated clothing does increase absorbed, internal dose levels of permethrin above population levels and is significantly related to wear-time duration.

Performance of a system of reservoirs on futuristic front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Satabdi; Roy, Debasri; Mazumdar, Asis

2017-10-01

Application of simulation model HEC-5 to analyze the performance of the DVC Reservoir System (a multipurpose system with a network of five reservoirs and one barrage) on the river Damodar in Eastern India in meeting projected future demand as well as controlling flood for synthetically generated future scenario is addressed here with a view to develop an appropriate strategy for its operation. Thomas-Fiering model (based on Markov autoregressive model) has been adopted for generation of synthetic scenario (monthly streamflow series) and subsequently downscaling of modeled monthly streamflow to daily values was carried out. The performance of the system (analysed on seasonal basis) in terms of `Performance Indices' (viz., both quantity based reliability and time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability indices) for the projected scenario with enhanced demand turned out to be poor compared to that for historical scenario. However, judicious adoption of resource enhancement (marginal reallocation of reservoir storage capacity) and demand management strategy (curtailment of projected high water requirements and trading off between demands) was found to be a viable option for improvement of the performance of the reservoir system appreciably [improvement being (1-51 %), (2-35 %), (16-96 %), (25-50 %), (8-36 %) and (12-30 %) for the indices viz., quantity based reliability, time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability, respectively] compared to that with normal storage and projected demand. Again, 100 % reliability for flood control for current as well as future synthetically generated scenarios was noted. The results from the study would assist concerned authority in successful operation of reservoirs in the context of growing demand and dwindling resource.

Evaluation of Control Strategies for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) in Swine Breeding Herds Using a Discrete Event Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Arruda, Andréia Gonçalves; Friendship, Robert; Carpenter, Jane; Greer, Amy; Poljak, Zvonimir

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a discrete event agent-based stochastic model to explore the likelihood of the occurrence of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) outbreaks in swine herds with different PRRS control measures in place. The control measures evaluated included vaccination with a modified-live attenuated vaccine and live-virus inoculation of gilts, and both were compared to a baseline scenario where no control measures were in place. A typical North American 1,000-sow farrow-to-wean swine herd was used as a model, with production and disease parameters estimated from the literature and expert opinion. The model constructed herein was not only able to capture individual animal heterogeneity in immunity to and shedding of the PRRS virus, but also the dynamic animal flow and contact structure typical in such herds under field conditions. The model outcomes included maximum number of females infected per simulation, and time at which that happened and the incidence of infected weaned piglets during the first year of challenge-virus introduction. Results showed that the baseline scenario produced a larger percentage of simulations resulting in outbreaks compared to the control scenarios, and interestingly some of the outbreaks occurred over long periods after virus introduction. The live-virus inoculation scenario showed promising results, with fewer simulations resulting in outbreaks than the other scenarios, but the negative impacts of maintaining a PRRS-positive population should be considered. Finally, under the assumptions of the current model, neither of the control strategies prevented the infection from spreading to the piglet population, which highlights the importance of maintaining internal biosecurity practices at the farrowing room level.

Impact of substituting added sugar in carbonated soft drinks by intense sweeteners in young adults in the Netherlands: example of a benefit-risk approach.

PubMed

Hendriksen, Marieke A; Tijhuis, Mariken J; Fransen, Heidi P; Verhagen, Hans; Hoekstra, Jeljer

2011-02-01

Substituting added sugar in carbonated soft drinks with intense sweeteners may have potential beneficial, but also adverse health effects. This study assessed the benefits and risks associated with substituting added sugar in carbonated soft drinks with intense sweeteners in young adults in the Netherlands. A tiered approach was used analogous to the risk assessment paradigm, consisting of benefit and hazard identification, exposure assessment and finally benefit and risk characterization and comparison. Two extreme scenarios were compared in which all carbonated soft drinks were sweetened with either intense sweeteners or added sugar. National food consumption survey data were used, and intake of added sugar and intense sweeteners was calculated using the food composition table or analytical data for sweetener content. Reduction in dental caries and body weight were identified as benefits of substituting sugar. The mean difference in total energy intake between the scenarios was 542 kJ per day in men and 357 kJ per day in women, under the assumption that no compensation takes place. In the 100% sweetener scenario, the average BMI decreased 1.7 kg/m(2) in men and 1.3 kg/m(2) in women when compared to the 100% sugar scenario. Risks are negligible, as the intake of intense sweeteners remains below the ADI in the substitution scenario. Substitution of added sugar by intense sweeteners in carbonated soft drinks has beneficial effects on BMI and the reduction in dental caries, and does not seem to have adverse health effects in young adults, given the available knowledge and assumptions made.

The Extent to Which Different 100% Clean, Renewable Energy Transition Scenarios can Reduce World Carbon Dioxide Levels to 350-400 ppmv by 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, M. Z.; Byrne, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on CO2's natural and anthropogenic emission rates and its removal rates by primarily water dissolution, photosysnthesis, and weathering. We compare modeled past CO2 from 1750 to 2015 with data then model projected future changes in CO2 under different energy emission scenarios, including two where 100% of the world's all-purpose energy (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture/forestry/fishing) is electrified, and the electricity is powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The scenarios are derived from country-by-country energy roadmaps found at http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html. In one 100% scenario, 80% of the conversion is assumed to occur by 2030 and 100%, by 2050. In the second, 80% is assumed to occur by 2050, and the rest by 2100. We also compare with an unrealistic but best-case 100% conversion scenario starting in 2015 and IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, B1, B2, and A1F1. Results will be shown, and conclusions, drawn about the practicality of reducing CO2 to 350-400 ppmv by 2100. These results have significant impact on current and future energy policy.

Impact of a future H2 transportation on atmospheric pollution in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popa, M. E.; Segers, A. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Krol, M. C.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Schaap, M.; Röckmann, T.

2015-07-01

Hydrogen (H2) is being explored as a fuel for passenger vehicles; it can be used in fuel cells to power electric motors or burned in internal combustion engines. In order to evaluate the potential influence of a future H2-based road transportation on the regional air quality in Europe, we implemented H2 in the atmospheric transport and chemistry model LOTOS-EUROS. We simulated the present and future (2020) air quality, using emission scenarios with different proportions of H2 vehicles and different H2 leakage rates. The reference future scenario does not include H2 vehicles, and assumes that all present and planned European regulations for emissions are fully implemented. We find that, in general, the air quality in 2020 is significantly improved compared to the current situation in all scenarios, with and without H2 cars. In the future scenario without H2 cars, the pollution is reduced due to the strict European regulations: annually averaged CO, NOx and PM2.5 over the model domain decrease by 15%, 30% and 20% respectively. The additional improvement brought by replacing 50% or 100% of traditionally-fueled vehicles by H2 vehicles is smaller in absolute terms. If 50% of vehicles are using H2, the CO, NOx and PM2.5 decrease by 1%, 10% and 1% respectively, compared to the future scenario without H2 cars. When all vehicles run on H2, then additional decreases in CO, NOx and PM2.5 are 5%, 40%, and 5% relative to the no-H2 cars future scenario. Our study shows that H2 vehicles may be an effective pathway to fulfill the strict future EU air quality regulations. O3 has a more complicated behavior - its annual average decreases in background areas, but increases in the high-NOx area in western Europe, with the decrease in NOx. A more detailed analysis shows that the population exposure to high O3 levels decreases nevertheless. In all future scenarios, traffic emissions account for only a small proportion of the total anthropogenic emissions, thus it becomes more important to better regulate emissions of non-traffic sectors. Although atmospheric H2 increases significantly in the high-leakage scenarios considered, the additional H2 added into the atmosphere does not have a significant effect on the ground level air pollution in Europe.

Comparative Assessment and Decision Support System for Strategic Military Airlift Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salmon, John; Iwata, Curtis; Mavris, Dimitri; Weston, Neil; Fahringer, Philip

2011-01-01

The Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company has been awarded several programs to modernize the aging C-5 military transport fleet. In order to ensure its continuation amidst budget cuts, it was important to engage the decision makers by providing an environment to analyze the benefits of the modernization program. This paper describes an interface that allows the user to change inputs such as the scenario airfields, take-off conditions, and reliability characteristics. The underlying logistics surrogate model was generated using data from a discrete-event simulation. Various visualizations such as intercontinental flight paths illustrated in 3D, have been created to aid the user in analyzing scenarios and performing comparative assessments for various output logistics metrics. The capability to rapidly and dynamically evaluate and compare scenarios was developed enabling real time strategy exploration and trade-offs.

Comparing long-term projections of the space debris environment to real world data - Looking back to 1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radtke, Jonas; Stoll, Enrico

2016-10-01

Long-term projections of the space debris environment are commonly used to assess the trends within different scenarios for the assumed future development of spacefaring. General scenarios investigated include business-as-usual cases in which spaceflight is performed as today and mitigation scenarios, assuming the implementation of Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines at different advances or the effectiveness of more drastic measures, such as active debris removal. One problem that always goes along with the projection of a system's behaviour in the future is that affecting parameters, such as the launch rate, are unpredictable. It is common to look backwards and re-model the past in other fields of research. This is a rather difficult task for spaceflight as it is still quite young, and furthermore mostly influenced by drastic politic changes, as the break-down of the Soviet Union in the end of the 1980s. Furthermore, one major driver of the evolution of the number of on-orbit objects turn out to be collisions between objects. As of today, these collisions are, fortunately, very rare and therefore, a real-world-data modelling approach is difficult. Nevertheless, since the end of the cold war more than 20 years of a comparably stable evolution of spaceflight activities have passed. For this study, this period is used in a comparison between the real evolution of the space debris environment and that one projected using the Institute of Space System's in-house tool for long-term assessment LUCA (Long-Term Utility for Collision Analysis). Four different scenarios are investigated in this comparison; all of them have the common starting point of using an initial population for 1st May 1989. The first scenario, which serves as reference, is simply taken from MASTER-2009. All launch and mission related objects from the Two Line Elements (TLE) catalogue and other available sources are included. All events such as explosion and collision events have been re-modelled as close to the reality as possible and included in the corresponding population. They furthermore have been correlated with TLE catalogue objects. As the latest available validated population snapshot for MASTER is May 2009, this epoch is chosen as endpoint for the simulations. The second scenario uses the knowledge of the past 25 years to perform a Monte-Carlo simulation of the evolution of the space debris environment. Necessary input parameters such as explosions per year, launch rates, and the evolution of the solar cycle are taken from their real evolutions. The third scenario goes a step further by only extracting mean numbers and trends from inputs such as launch and explosion rates and applying them. The final and fourth scenario aims to disregarding all knowledge of the time frame under investigation and inputs are determined based on data available in 1989 only. Results are compared to the reference scenario of the space debris environment.

Methods and Case Studies for Teaching and Learning about Failure and Safety.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bignell, Victor

1999-01-01

Discusses methods for analyzing case studies of failures of technological systems. Describes two distance learning courses that compare standard models of failure and success with the actuality of given scenarios. Provides teaching and learning materials and information sources for application to aspects of design, manufacture, inspection, use,…

Exploring the Effectiveness of a Virtual Learning Methodology in Occupational Therapy Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bebeau, Deborah

2016-01-01

This quantitative, randomly controlled study sought to find relationships between occupational therapy students' participation in a virtual situated-case scenario (VSCS) and enhanced perceived self-efficacy as well as academic performance when compared to participation in a text-based case study. To determine effects of participation in a virtual…

Metamodels for Ozone: Comparison of Three Estimation Techniques

EPA Science Inventory

A metamodel for ozone is a mathematical relationship between the inputs and outputs of an air quality modeling experiment, permitting calculation of outputs for scenarios of interest without having to run the model again. In this study we compare three metamodel estimation techn...

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. National-level total water use is lowest in the BAU scenario and highest in the RFS2 + LCFS scenario. Figure: Million acres converted to growing miscanthus (top) & switchgrass (bottom) under the RFS + LCFS scenario in 2035. Land use classes are crop pasture (blue), idle cropland (red-purple) & prime cropland (brown).

A comparative study of integrated pest management strategies based on impulsive control.

PubMed

Páez Chávez, Joseph; Jungmann, Dirk; Siegmund, Stefan

2018-12-01

The paper presents a comprehensive numerical study of mathematical models used to describe complex biological systems in the framework of integrated pest management. Our study considers two specific ecosystems that describe the application of control mechanisms based on pesticides and natural enemies, implemented in an impulsive and periodic manner, due to which the considered models belong to the class of impulsive differential equations. The present work proposes a numerical approach to study such type of models in detail, via the application of path-following (continuation) techniques for nonsmooth dynamical systems, via the novel continuation platform COCO (Dankowicz and Schilder). In this way, a detailed study focusing on the influence of selected system parameters on the effectiveness of the pest control scheme is carried out for both ecological scenarios. Furthermore, a comparative study is presented, with special emphasis on the mechanisms upon which a pest outbreak can occur in the considered ecosystems. Our study reveals that such outbreaks are determined by the presence of a branching point found during the continuation analysis. The numerical investigation concludes with an in-depth study of the state-dependent pesticide mortality considered in one of the ecological scenarios.

A comparative analysis of the impacts of climate change and irrigation on land surface and subsurface hydrology in the North China Plain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi

The Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) was used to investigate and compare the effects of climate change and irrigation on terrestrial water cycle. Three climate change scenarios and one irrigation scenario (IRRIG) were simulated in the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and human perturbations in China. The climate change scenarios consist of (1) HOT (i.e. temperature increase by 2oC); (2) HOTWET (same with HOT but with an increase of precipitation by 15%); (3) HOTDRY (same with HOT but with a decrease of precipitation by 15%). In the IRRIG scenario, themore » irrigation scheme was calibrated to simulate irrigation amounts that match the actual irrigation amounts and irrigation was divided between surface water and groundwater withdrawals based on census data. Our results show that the impacts of climate change were more widespread while those of irrigation were concentrated only over the agricultural regions. Specifically, the mean water table depth was simulated to decline persistently by over 1 m annually due to groundwater exploitation during the period of 1980-2000, while much smaller effects were induced by climate change. Although irrigation has comparable effects on surface fluxes and surface soil moisture as climate change, it has much greater effects on water table depth and groundwater storage. Moreover, irrigation has much larger effects on the top layer soil moisture whereas increase in precipitation associated with climate change exerts more influence on lower layer soil moisture. This study emphasizes the need to accurately account for irrigation impacts in adapting to climate change.« less

Surgeons' and trainees' perceived self-efficacy in operating theatre non-technical skills.

PubMed

Pena, G; Altree, M; Field, J; Thomas, M J W; Hewett, P; Babidge, W; Maddern, G J

2015-05-01

An important factor that may influence an individual's performance is self-efficacy, a personal judgement of capability to perform a particular task successfully. This prospective study explored newly qualified surgeons' and surgical trainees' self-efficacy in non-technical skills compared with their non-technical skills performance in simulated scenarios. Participants undertook surgical scenarios challenging non-technical skills in two simulation sessions 6 weeks apart. Some participants attended a non-technical skills workshop between sessions. Participants completed pretraining and post-training surveys about their perceived self-efficacy in non-technical skills, which were analysed and compared with their performance in surgical scenarios in two simulation sessions. Change in performance between sessions was compared with any change in participants' perceived self-efficacy. There were 40 participants in all, 17 of whom attended the non-technical skills workshop. There was no significant difference in participants' self-efficacy regarding non-technical skills from the pretraining to the post-training survey. However, there was a tendency for participants with the highest reported self-efficacy to adjust their score downwards after training and for participants with the lowest self-efficacy to adjust their score upwards. Although there was significant improvement in non-technical skills performance from the first to second simulation sessions, a correlation between participants' self-efficacy and performance in scenarios in any of the comparisons was not found. The results suggest that new surgeons and surgical trainees have poor insight into their non-technical skills. Although it was not possible to correlate participants' self-belief in their abilities directly with their performance in a simulation, in general they became more critical in appraisal of their abilities as a result of the intervention. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Towards the new CH2018 climate scenarios for Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Schär, Christoph; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Knutti, Reto; Liniger, Mark; Strassmann, Kuno

2017-04-01

There is a growing demand for regional assessments of future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems to inform and facilitate appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are consistent and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). Since then, new climate model simulations have become available and the scientific understanding has improved. It is hence desirable to update these national scenarios. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS), a network consisting of several federal offices and academic partners. The CH2018 scenarios will build primarily upon the latest Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations assuming different pathways of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared to CH2011, more emphasis will be put on changes in extremes and in putting the projected changes in the context of observed variability. Results of a recently conducted survey on end-user needs in Switzerland will guide the development process toward the CH2018 scenarios. It ensures that the scenarios are presented and communicated in a user-oriented format and find a wide applicability across different sectors in Switzerland. In the presentation we will show the full methodological setup to generate the CH2018 scenarios and how consistency across the methods and products is maximized. First results on mean changes and selected indices will be presented. In terms of dissemination, the results of the user survey show the necessity to address all different user types of climate scenarios, especially the non-experts. Compared to CH2011, this implies a stronger focus on consulting, condensing complex information and providing tutorials. In the presentation, we will outline our plans on dissemination in order to adequately address all relevant user groups of CH2018.

Impact assessments of water allocation on water environment of river network: Method and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qinggai; Wang, Yaping; Lu, Xuchuan; Jia, Peng; Zhang, Beibei; Li, Chen; Li, Sa; Li, Shibei

2018-02-01

Two types of water allocation scenarios were proposed for reasonably utilizing water resources and improving water quality in a two-river network in Tongzhou District. Water circulation and quality were selected as two important indexes to evaluate the two scenario. Meanwhile, one-dimensional water amount and quality model was set up on the basis of the MIKE11 model to compare the two scenarios in terms of improving water environment. The results showed that both scenarios changed the hydrodynamic conditions, and consequently the river flow reached 0.05 m/s or higher in the central part of river stream. In addition, we also found that the two plans have similar effects on water quality, with first scenario producing larger area of water class III and IV than the second scenario.

Jealousy in response to online and offline infidelity: the role of sex and sexual orientation.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Pieternel; Barelds, Dick P H; Groothof, Hinke A K

2013-08-01

The goal of the present study was to examine the emotional content and intensity of jealousy in response to different types of infidelity (both online and offline unfaithful partner behaviors) among Dutch heterosexuals (n = 191) and homosexuals (n = 121). Based on previous research (Dijkstra, Barelds & Groothof, 2010), participants were presented with ten jealousy-evoking situations following which the intensity of two different emotional aspects of jealousy was assessed (betrayal/anger and threat). Results showed that scenarios describing a partner having sex with someone else or falling in love with someone else primarily evoked betrayal/anger-related jealousy, whereas scenarios describing an emotional connection between a partner and someone else primarily evoked threat-related jealousy. In addition, women experienced more jealousy than men in response to scenarios in which a partner engaged in potentially extra-dyadic online (but not offline) behaviors. Finally, compared to same-sex heterosexuals, homosexuals, both male and female, responded with less intense jealousy to scenarios describing a partner having sex with someone else. Implications for the treatment of (internet) infidelity are discussed. © 2013 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Student Engagement with a Flipped Classroom Teaching Design Affects Pharmacology Examination Performance in a Manner Dependent on Question Type.

PubMed

White, Paul J; Naidu, Som; Yuriev, Elizabeth; Short, Jennifer L; McLaughlin, Jacqueline E; Larson, Ian C

2017-11-01

Objective: To investigate the relationship between student engagement with the key elements of a flipped classroom approach (preparation and attendance), their attitudes to learning, including strategy development, and their performance on two types of examination questions (knowledge recall and providing rational predictions when faced with novel scenarios). Methods. This study correlated student engagement with the flipped classroom and student disposition to learning with student ability to solve novel scenarios in examinations. Results. Students who both prepared for and attended classes performed significantly better on examination questions that required analysis of novel scenarios compared to students who did not prepare and missed classes. However, there was no difference for both groups of students on examination questions that required knowledge and comprehension. Student motivation and use of strategies correlated with higher examination scores on questions requiring novel scenario analysis. Conclusion. There is a synergistic relationship between class preparation and attendance. The combination of preparation and attendance was positively correlated to assessment type; the relationship was apparent for questions requiring students to solve novel problems but not for questions requiring knowledge or comprehension.

Shallow aquifer response to climate change scenarios in a small catchment in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone.

PubMed

Melo, Davi C D; Wendland, Edson

2017-05-01

Water availability restrictions are already a reality in several countries. This issue is likely to worsen due to climate change, predicted for the upcoming decades. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate change on groundwater system in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models (GCM) outputs were used as inputs to a water balance model, which produced recharge estimates for the groundwater model. Recharge was estimated across different land use types considering a control period from 2004 to 2014, and a future period from 2081 to 2099. Major changes in monthly rainfall means are expected to take place in dry seasons. Most of the analysed scenarios predict increase of more than 2 ºC in monthly mean temperatures. Comparing the control and future runs, our results showed a mean recharge change among scenarios that ranged from ~-80 to ~+60%, depending on the land use type. As a result of such decrease in recharge rates, the response given by the groundwater model indicates a lowering of the water table under most scenarios.

Scenario generation for stochastic optimization problems via the sparse grid method

DOE PAGES

Chen, Michael; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, David

2015-04-19

We study the use of sparse grids in the scenario generation (or discretization) problem in stochastic programming problems where the uncertainty is modeled using a continuous multivariate distribution. We show that, under a regularity assumption on the random function involved, the sequence of optimal objective function values of the sparse grid approximations converges to the true optimal objective function values as the number of scenarios increases. The rate of convergence is also established. We treat separately the special case when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, and show how the sparse grid methodmore » can be adapted to the distribution by the use of quadrature formulas tailored to the distribution. We numerically compare the performance of the sparse grid method using different quadrature rules with classic quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, optimal rank-one lattice rules, and Monte Carlo (MC) scenario generation, using a series of utility maximization problems with up to 160 random variables. The results show that the sparse grid method is very efficient, especially if the integrand is sufficiently smooth. In such problems the sparse grid scenario generation method is found to need several orders of magnitude fewer scenarios than MC and QMC scenario generation to achieve the same accuracy. As a result, it is indicated that the method scales well with the dimension of the distribution--especially when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, in which case the method appears scalable to thousands of random variables.« less

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Sustainability analysis of bioenergy based land use change under climate change and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.; Brouder, S. M.; Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Frankenberger, J.; Goforth, R. R.; Gramig, B. M.; Volenec, J. J.

2014-12-01

Sustainability analyses of futuristic plausible land use and climate change scenarios are critical in making watershed-scale decisions for simultaneous improvement of food, energy and water management. Bioenergy production targets for the US are anticipated to impact farming practices through the introduction of fast growing and high yielding perennial grasses/trees, and use of crop residues as bioenergy feedstocks. These land use/land management changes raise concern over potential environmental impacts of bioenergy crop production scenarios, both in terms of water availability and water quality; impacts that may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. The objective of the study was to assess environmental, economic and biodiversity sustainability of plausible bioenergy scenarios for two watersheds in Midwest US under changing climate scenarios. The study considers fourteen sustainability indicators under nine climate change scenarios from World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate perennial bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and corn stover removal at various removal rates and their impacts on hydrology and water quality. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) developed to evaluate stream fish response to hydrology and water quality changes associated with land use change were used to quantify biodiversity sustainability of various bioenergy scenarios. The watershed-scale sustainability analysis was done in the St. Joseph River watershed located in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; and the Wildcat Creek watershed, located in Indiana. The results indicate streamflow reduction at watershed outlet with increased evapotranspiration demands for high-yielding perennial grasses. Bioenergy crops in general improved in-stream water quality compared to conventional cropping systems (maize-soybean). Water quality benefits due to land use change were generally greater than the effects of climate change variability.

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

Cost-effectiveness of rituximab as maintenance treatment for relapsed follicular lymphoma: results of a population-based study.

PubMed

Blommestein, Hedwig M; Issa, Djamila E; Pompen, Marjolein; Ten Hoor, Gerhard; Hogendoorn, Mels; Joosten, Peter; Zweegman, Sonja; Huijgens, Peter C; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A

2014-01-01

On the basis of two population-based registries, our study aims to calculate the real-world cost-effectiveness of rituximab maintenance compared with observation in relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma patients who responded to second-line chemotherapy. Data were obtained from the EORTC20981 trial, the Netherlands Cancer Registry and two population-based registries. A Markov model was developed to calculate cost per life year gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for three scenarios. Our real-world patients were (62 years) 6 to 7 years older and had higher complete response rates to second-line chemotherapy than the trial population. Differences between the real-world rituximab and observation group were observed for second-line chemotherapy and disease progression. Groups were more balanced after using propensity matching. Relying entirely on updated trial results (scenario1) in combination with local cost data resulted in ratios of €11,259 per LYG and €12,655 per QALY. For scenario2, consisting of trial efficacy and matched real-world costs, ratios of €21,202 per LYG and €23,821 per QALY were calculated. Using real-world matched evidence (scenario3) for both effectiveness and costs showed ratios of €10,591 per LYG and €11,245 per QALY. Although differences in real-world and trial population were found, using real-world data as well as results from long-term trial follow-up showed favourable ICERs for rituximab maintenance. Nevertheless, results showed that caution is required with data synthesis, interpretation and generalisability of results. As different scenarios provide answers to different questions, we recommend healthcare decision-makers to recognise the importance of calculating several cost-effectiveness scenarios. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Examining the effects of an eco-driving message on driver distraction.

PubMed

Rouzikhah, Hossein; King, Mark; Rakotonirainy, Andry

2013-01-01

This paper examines the effects of an eco-driving message on driver distraction. Two in-vehicle distracter tasks were compared with an eco-driving task and a baseline task in an advanced driving simulator. N=22 subjects were asked to perform an eco-driving, CD changing, and a navigation task while engaged in critical manoeuvres during which they were expected to respond to a peripheral detection task (PDT) with total duration of 3.5h. The study involved two sessions over two consecutive days. The results show that drivers' mental workloads are significantly higher during navigation and CD changing tasks in comparison to the two other scenarios. However, eco-driving mental workload is still marginally significant (p∼.05) across different manoeuvres. Similarly, event detection tasks show that drivers miss significantly more events in the navigation and CD changing scenarios in comparison to both the baseline and eco-driving scenario. Analysis of the practice effect shows that drivers' baseline scenario and navigation scenario exhibit significantly less demand on the second day. Drivers also can detect significantly more events on the second day for all scenarios. The authors conclude that even reading a simple message while driving could potentially lead to missing an important event, especially when executing critical manoeuvres. However, there is some evidence of a practice effect which suggests that future research should focus on performance with habitual rather than novel tasks. It is recommended that sending text as an eco-driving message analogous to the study circumstances should not be delivered to drivers on-line when vehicle is in motion. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the effect of coppice practice on carbon dynamics of oak forests in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Han, S. H.; Makineci, E.; Tolunay, D.; Son, Y.

2016-12-01

Coppice is a forest management practice, maximizing wood production by short-interval harvest. Coppice practice of oak forests in Turkey was abandoned in 2006, however, quantitative assessment to carbon (C) dynamics after the abandonment is still lacking. Accordingly, we simulated the annual changes in C stocks of oak forests in Turkey (7 regions) under the two management scenarios, using a forest C model (FBDC model): 200-year-interval harvest (A scenario) and abandonment of 20-year-interval coppice (B scenario). Growth of biomass was estimated by diameter at breast height (DBH) and allometric functions from previous studies. Survival of root and regeneration from sprout were formulated by a combination of empirical data and assumptions. Dead organic matter C dynamics were estimated by turnover (mortality) rates of biomass and decay rates of dead organic matter. The model estimates were verified by comparing the estimates and measured C stocks. Under the A scenario, the total (biomass, litter, dead wood, and mineral soil) C stock (Mg C ha-1) varied with stand age, ranging from 153.65 to 284.64. The total C stock (Mg C ha-1) started increasing rapidly after abandonment of coppice practice from 134.23 at 1 year to 280.71 at 200 year. The total C stock under the B scenario converged to the level of total C stock under the A scenario. After the abandonment of coppice practice, the C stocks of biomass, litter, and dead wood almost recovered in 30 years, however, the mineral soil C stock required longer time for recovery. This study was supported by Korea Ministry of Environment (2014001310008) and Korea Forest Service (S111314L100110).

LCA of an ice cream cup of polyethylene coated paper: how does the choice of the end-of-life affect the results?

PubMed

Buccino, Carla; Ferrara, Carmen; Malvano, Carmela; De Feo, Giovanni

2017-11-07

This study presents an evaluation of the environmental performance of an ice cream cup made of polyethylene (PE)/paper laminate using a life cycle assessment approach 'from cradle to grave'. Two opposite alternative disposal scenarios, as well as their intermediate combinations, were considered: 100% incineration and 100% landfilling. The environmental impacts were calculated using the EPD 2013 evaluation method since the study was developed in an Environmental Product Declaration perspective as well as the method ReCiPe 2008 H at the endpoint level. PE/paper laminate production was the most impactful process since it provided the highest contribution to total impacts in four of six impact categories considered. Ice cream cup production was the second impactful process. The 100% incineration scenario provided negligible contribution to life cycle total impact for all impact categories; while considering the landfilling scenario, the percentage contributions to the total impact provided by the end-of-life phase increased considerably, until to be comparable to the contributions provided by the production processes of the PE/paper laminate and the ice cream cup. The obtained results highlighted that different disposal scenarios can affect significantly the conclusions of a study. At the endpoint level, incineration was more environmentally sound than landfilling for all the ReCiPe damage categories.

Temporal dynamics of groundwater-surface water interaction under the effects of climate change: A case study in the Kiskatinaw River Watershed, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Gopal Chandra; Li, Jianbing; Thring, Ronald W.; Hirshfield, Faye; Paul, Siddhartho Shekhar

2017-08-01

Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction plays a vital role in the functioning of riparian ecosystem, as well as sustainable water resources management. In this study, temporal dynamics of GW-SW interaction were investigated under climate change. A case study was chosen for a study area along the Kiskatinaw River in Mainstem sub-watershed of the Kiskatinaw River Watershed, British Columbia, Canada. A physically based and distributed GW-SW interaction model, Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), was used. Two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (i.e., A2: heterogeneous world with self-reliance and preservation of local identities, and B1: more integrated and environmental friendly world) of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) from Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used for climate change study for 2020-2040. The simulation results showed that climate change influences significantly the temporal patterns of GW-SW interaction by generating variable temporal mean groundwater contributions to streamflow. Due to precipitation variability, these contributions varied monthly, seasonally, and annually. The mean annual groundwater contribution to streamflow during 2020-2040 under the A2 and B1 scenarios is expected to be 74.5% (σ = 2%) and 75.6% (σ = 3%), respectively. As compared to that during the base modeling period (2007-2011), the mean annual groundwater contribution to streamflow during 2020-2040 under the A2 and B1 scenarios is expected to decrease by 5.5% and 4.4%, respectively, due to the increased precipitation (on average 6.7% in the A2 and 4.8% in the B1 scenarios) and temperature (on average 0.83 °C in the A2 and 0.64 °C in the B1 scenarios). The results obtained from this study will provide useful information in the long-term seasonal and annual water extractions from the river for future water supply, as well as for evaluating the ecological conditions of the stream, which will be beneficial to aquatic ecosystems.

Confirmation of skin doses resulting from bolus effect of intervening alpha-cradle and carbon fiber couch in radiotherapy.

PubMed

Chan, Maria F; Chiu-Tsao, Sou-Tung; Li, Jingdong; Schupak, Karen; Parhar, Preeti; Burman, Chandra

2012-12-01

In this study, we verified the treatment planning calculations of skin doses with the incorporation of the bolus effect due to the intervening alpha-cradle (AC) and carbon fiber couch (CFC) using radiochromic EBT2 films. A polystyrene phantom (25 × 25 × 15 cm(3)) with six EBT2 films separated by polystyrene slabs, at depths of 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1, 1.4 cm, was positioned above an AC, which was ~1 cm thick. The phantom and AC assembly were CT scanned and the CT-images were transferred to the treatment planning system (TPS) for calculations in three scenarios: (A) ignoring AC and CFC, (B) accounting for AC only, (C) accounting for both AC and CFC. A single posterior 10 × 10 cm(2) field, a pair of posterior-oblique 10 × 10 cm(2) fields, and a posterior IMRT field (6 MV photons from a Varian Trilogy linac) were planned. For each radiation field configuration, the same MU were used in all three scenarios in the TPS. Each plan for scenario C was delivered to expose a stack of EBT2 films in the phantom through AC and CFC. In addition, in vivo EBT2 film measurement on a lung cancer patient immobilized with AC undergoing IMRT was also included in this study. Point doses and planar distributions generated from the TPS for the three scenarios were compared with the data from the EBT2 film measurements. For all the field arrangements, the EBT2 film data including the in vivo measurement agreed with the doses calculated for scenario (C), within the uncertainty of the EBT2 measurements (~4%). For the single posterior field (a pair of posterior-oblique fields), the TPS generated doses were lower than the EBT2 doses by 34%, 33%, 31%, 13% (34%, 31%, 31%, 11%) for scenario A and by 27%, 25%, 22%, 8% (25%, 21%, 21%, 6%) for scenario B at the depths of 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5 cm, respectively. For the IMRT field, the 2D dose distributions at each depth calculated in scenario C agree with those measured data. When comparing the central axis doses for the IMRT field, we found the TPS generated doses for scenario A (B) were lower than the EBT2 data by 35%, 34%, 31%, 16% (29%, 26%, 23%, 10%) at the depths of 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5 cm, respectively. There were no significant differences for the depths of 1.0 and 1.4 cm for all the radiation fields studied. TPS calculation of doses in the skin layers accounting for AC and CFC was verified by EBT2 film data. Ignoring the presence of AC and/or CFC in TPS calculation would significantly underestimate the doses in the skin layers. For the clinicians, as more hypofractionated regimens and stereotactic regimens are being used, this information will be useful to avoid potential serious skin toxicities, and also assist in clinical decisions and report these doses accurately to relevant clinical trials/cooperative groups, such as RTOG.

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

2017-09-01

The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

Emergency Physician Estimation of Blood Loss

PubMed Central

Ashburn, Jeffery C.; Harrison, Tamara; Ham, James J.; Strote, Jared

2012-01-01

Introduction Emergency physicians (EP) frequently estimate blood loss, which can have implications for clinical care. The objectives of this study were to examine EP accuracy in estimating blood loss on different surfaces and compare attending physician and resident performance. Methods A sample of 56 emergency department (ED) physicians (30 attending physicians and 26 residents) were asked to estimate the amount of moulage blood present in 4 scenarios: 500 mL spilled onto an ED cot; 25 mL spilled onto a 10-pack of 4 × 4-inch gauze; 100 mL on a T-shirt; and 150 mL in a commode filled with water. Standard estimate error (the absolute value of (estimated volume − actual volume)/actual volume × 100) was calculated for each estimate. Results The mean standard error for all estimates was 116% with a range of 0% to 1233%. Only 8% of estimates were within 20% of the true value. Estimates were most accurate for the sheet scenario and worst for the commode scenario. Residents and attending physicians did not perform significantly differently (P > 0.05). Conclusion Emergency department physicians do not estimate blood loss well in a variety of scenarios. Such estimates could potentially be misleading if used in clinical decision making. Clinical experience does not appear to improve estimation ability in this limited study. PMID:22942938

A study on the application of voice interaction in automotive human machine interface experience design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zhaohui; Huang, Xiemin

2018-04-01

This paper, firstly, introduces the application trend of the integration of multi-channel interactions in automotive HMI ((Human Machine Interface) from complex information models faced by existing automotive HMI and describes various interaction modes. By comparing voice interaction and touch screen, gestures and other interaction modes, the potential and feasibility of voice interaction in automotive HMI experience design are concluded. Then, the related theories of voice interaction, identification technologies, human beings' cognitive models of voices and voice design methods are further explored. And the research priority of this paper is proposed, i.e. how to design voice interaction to create more humane task-oriented dialogue scenarios to enhance interactive experiences of automotive HMI. The specific scenarios in driving behaviors suitable for the use of voice interaction are studied and classified, and the usability principles and key elements for automotive HMI voice design are proposed according to the scenario features. Then, through the user participatory usability testing experiment, the dialogue processes of voice interaction in automotive HMI are defined. The logics and grammars in voice interaction are classified according to the experimental results, and the mental models in the interaction processes are analyzed. At last, the voice interaction design method to create the humane task-oriented dialogue scenarios in the driving environment is proposed.

Urban expansion simulation and the spatio-temporal changes of ecosystem services, a case study in Atlanta Metropolitan area, USA.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao; Crittenden, John C; Li, Feng; Lu, Zhongming; Dou, Xiaolin

2018-05-01

Urban expansion can lead to land use changes and, hence, threatens the ecosystems. Understanding the effects of urbanization on ecosystem services (ESs) can provide scientific guidance for land use planning and the protection of ESs. We established a framework to assess the spatial distributions of ESs based on land use changes in the Atlanta Metropolitan area (AMA) from 1985 to 2012. A new comprehensive ecosystem service (CES) index was developed to reflect the comprehensive level of ESs. Associated with the influential factors, we simulated the business as usual scenario in 2030. Four alternative scenarios, including more compact growth (MCG), riparian vegetation buffer (RVB), soil conservation (SC), and combined development (CD) scenarios were developed to explore the optimal land use strategies which can enhance the ESs. The results showed that forest and wetland had the greatest decreases, while low and high intensity built-up lands had the greatest increases. The values of CES and most of ESs decreased significantly due to the sprawling expansion of built-up land. The scenario analysis revealed that the CD scenario performs best in CES value, while it performs the worst in food supply. Compared with the RVB and SC scenarios, MCG scenario is a more optimal land use strategy to enhance the ESs without at the expense of food supply. To integrate multiple ESs into land use planning and decision making, corresponding land management policies and ecological engineering measures should be implemented to enhance: (1) the water yield and water purification in urban core counties, (2) the carbon storage, habitat quality, and recreational opportunity in counties around the core area, and (3) the soil conservation and food supply in surrounding suburban counties. The land use strategies and ecological engineering measures in this study can provide references for enhancing the ESs in the AMA and other metropolitan areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

PubMed Central

Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Grégory; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. PMID:25798227

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparing the cohort design and the nested case–control design in the presence of both time-invariant and time-dependent treatment and competing risks: bias and precision

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C; Anderson, Geoffrey M; Cigsar, Candemir; Gruneir, Andrea

2012-01-01

Purpose Observational studies using electronic administrative healthcare databases are often used to estimate the effects of treatments and exposures. Traditionally, a cohort design has been used to estimate these effects, but increasingly, studies are using a nested case–control (NCC) design. The relative statistical efficiency of these two designs has not been examined in detail. Methods We used Monte Carlo simulations to compare these two designs in terms of the bias and precision of effect estimates. We examined three different settings: (A) treatment occurred at baseline, and there was a single outcome of interest; (B) treatment was time varying, and there was a single outcome; and C treatment occurred at baseline, and there was a secondary event that competed with the primary event of interest. Comparisons were made of percentage bias, length of 95% confidence interval, and mean squared error (MSE) as a combined measure of bias and precision. Results In Setting A, bias was similar between designs, but the cohort design was more precise and had a lower MSE in all scenarios. In Settings B and C, the cohort design was more precise and had a lower MSE in all scenarios. In both Settings B and C, the NCC design tended to result in estimates with greater bias compared with the cohort design. Conclusions We conclude that in a range of settings and scenarios, the cohort design is superior in terms of precision and MSE. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:22653805

Cost-Effectiveness of the Freeze-All Policy.

PubMed

Roque, Matheus; Valle, Marcello; Guimarães, Fernando; Sampaio, Marcos; Geber, Selmo

2015-08-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of freeze-all cycles when compared to fresh embryo transfer. This was an observational study with a cost-effectiveness analysis. The analysis consisted of 530 intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles in a private center in Brazil between January 2012 and December 2013. A total of 530 intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles - 351 fresh embryo transfers and 179 freeze-all cycles - with a gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist protocol and day 3 embryo transfers. The pregnancy rate was 31.1% in the fresh group and 39.7% in the freeze-all group. We performed two scenario analyses for costs. In scenario 1, we included those costs associated with the ICSI cycle (monitoring during controlled ovarian stimulation [COS], oocyte retrieval, embryo transfer, IVF laboratory, and medical costs), embryo cryopreservation of supernumerary embryos, hormone measurements during COS and endometrial priming, medication use (during COS, endometrial priming, and luteal phase support), ultrasound scan for frozen- thawed embryo transfer (FET), obstetric ultrasounds, and miscarriage. The total cost (in USD) per pregnancy was statistically lower in the freeze-all cycles (19,156.73 ± 1,732.99) when compared to the fresh cycles (23,059.72 ± 2,347.02). Even in Scenario 2, when charging all of the patients in the freeze-all group for cryopreservation (regardless of supernumerary embryos) and for FET, the fresh cycles had a statistically significant increase in treatment costs per ongoing pregnancy. The results presented in this study suggest that the freeze-all policy is a cost-effective strategy when compared to fresh embryo transfer.

Oscillations in human orbitofrontal cortex during even chance gambling.

PubMed

Kahn, Kevin; Kerr, Matthew S D; Park, Hyun-Joo; Thompson, Susan; Bulacio, Juan; Gonzalez-Martinez, Jorge; Sarma, Sridevi V; Gale, John

2014-01-01

Evaluating value and risk as well as comparing expected and actual outcomes is the crux of decision making and reinforcement based learning. In this study, we record from stereotactic electroencephalograph depth electrodes in a human subject in numerous areas in the brain. We focus on the lateral and medial orbitofrontal cortex while they perform a gambling task involving betting on a high card. Preliminary time-frequency analysis shows modulations in the 5-15 Hz band that is well synced to the different events of the task. These oscillations increase in both high betting scenarios as well as in losing scenarios though their effects cannot be decoupled. However, the activity between lateral and medial orbitofrontal cortex is a lot more homogenous than previously seen. Additionally, the timing of some of these oscillations occurs before even a response in the visual cortex. This evidence hints that these areas encode priors that influence our decision in future statistically ambiguous scenarios.

Evaluating School-Community Participation in Developing a Local Sustainability Agenda

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eilam, Efrat; Trop, Tamar

2013-01-01

Increasingly, international and national statements are calling for the development of local sustainability scenarios within partnerships between schools and their communities. The present study addresses the question of reciprocity in such partnerships, by comparing the sustainability agendas underlying schools' educational programs to the…

Psychophysiological effects of an iTBS modulated virtual reality challenge including participants with spider phobia.

PubMed

Notzon, S; Deppermann, S; Fallgatter, A; Diemer, J; Kroczek, A; Domschke, K; Zwanzger, P; Ehlis, A-C

2015-12-01

Preliminary evidence suggests beneficial effects of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) on anxiety. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) as a form of TMS on acute anxiety provoked by a virtual reality (VR) scenario. Participants with spider phobia (n=41) and healthy controls (n=42) were exposed to a spider scenario in VR after one session of iTBS over the prefrontal cortex or sham treatment. Participants with spider phobia reacted with more anxiety compared to healthy controls. Their heart rate and skin conductance increased compared to baseline. Contrary to expectations, iTBS did not influence these reactions, but modulated heart rate variability (HRV). Sympathetic influence on HRV showed an increase in the active iTBS group only. This study does not support the idea of beneficial effects of a single session of iTBS on anxiety, although other protocols or repeated sessions might be effective. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

FBI fingerprint identification automation study. AIDS 3 evaluation report. Volume 4: Economic feasibility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulhall, B. D. L.

1980-01-01

The results of the economic analysis of the AIDS 3 system design are presented. AIDS 3 evaluated a set of economic feasibility measures including life cycle cost, implementation cost, annual operating expenditures and annual capital expenditures. The economic feasibility of AIDS 3 was determined by comparing the evaluated measures with the same measures, where applicable, evaluated for the current system. A set of future work load scenarios was constructed using JPL's environmental evaluation study of the fingerprint identification system. AIDS 3 and the current system were evaluated for each of the economic feasibility measures for each of the work load scenarios. They were compared for a set of performance measures, including response time and accuracy, and for a set of cost/benefit ratios, including cost per transaction and cost per technical search. Benefit measures related to the economic feasibility of the system are also presented, including the required number of employees and the required employee skill mix.

Perceptions of relationship satisfaction and addictive behavior: Comparing pornography and marijuana use.

PubMed

Pyle, Tara M; Bridges, Ana J

2012-12-01

Background and aims Research indicates that excessive pornography use can negatively impact romantic relationships. However, it is unclear whether these negative outcomes are different than negative outcomes produced by other compulsive or addictive behaviors, such as drug use. This study compared perceptions of relationship outcomes from either a romantic partner's excessive marijuana or pornography use. Furthermore, this study experimentally manipulated four factors potentially related to perceptions of relationship satisfaction and addictive behavior. Methods A total of 186 college-aged women read 16 scenarios describing heterosexual romantic relationships in which one partner used either pornography or marijuana. Each scenario varied on four variables: relationship commitment, secrecy of partner's behavior, frequency of partner's behavior, and context of partner's behavior. Results Results suggest that partner pornography and marijuana use are perceived to impact romantic relationships similarly and are influenced by similar factors, such as greater frequency, higher secrecy, and partner's availability for interaction. Conclusions Such findings are consistent with recommendations by professionals that compulsive pornography use be considered worthy of treatment intervention.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

2017-03-28

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Consumptive water footprint and virtual water trade scenarios for China - With a focus on crop production, consumption and trade.

PubMed

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-09-01

The study assesses green and blue water footprints (WFs) and virtual water (VW) trade in China under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050, with a focus on crop production, consumption and trade. We consider five driving factors of change: climate, harvested crop area, technology, diet, and population. Four scenarios (S1-S4) are constructed by making use of three of IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-SSP3) and two of IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and taking 2005 as the baseline year. Results show that, across the four scenarios and for most crops, the green and blue WFs per tonne will decrease compared to the baseline year, due to the projected crop yield increase, which is driven by the higher precipitation and CO2 concentration under the two RCPs and the foreseen uptake of better technology. The WF per capita related to food consumption decreases in all scenarios. Changing to the less-meat diet can generate a reduction in the WF of food consumption of 44% by 2050. In all scenarios, as a result of the projected increase in crop yields and thus overall growth in crop production, China will reverse its role from net VW importer to net VW exporter. However, China will remain a big net VW importer related to soybean, which accounts for 5% of the WF of Chinese food consumption (in S1) by 2050. All scenarios show that China could attain a high degree of food self-sufficiency while simultaneously reducing water consumption in agriculture. However, the premise of realizing the presented scenarios is smart water and cropland management, effective and coherent policies on water, agriculture and infrastructure, and, as in scenario S1, a shift to a diet containing less meat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Can automation in radiotherapy reduce costs?

PubMed

Massaccesi, Mariangela; Corti, Michele; Azario, Luigi; Balducci, Mario; Ferro, Milena; Mantini, Giovanna; Mattiucci, Gian Carlo; Valentini, Vincenzo

2015-01-01

Computerized automation is likely to play an increasingly important role in radiotherapy. The objective of this study was to report the results of the first part of a program to implement a model for economical evaluation based on micro-costing method. To test the efficacy of the model, the financial impact of the introduction of an automation tool was estimated. A single- and multi-center validation of the model by a prospective collection of data is planned as the second step of the program. The model was implemented by using an interactive spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel, 2010). The variables to be included were identified across three components: productivity, staff, and equipment. To calculate staff requirements, the workflow of Gemelli ART center was mapped out and relevant workload measures were defined. Profit and loss, productivity and staffing were identified as significant outcomes. Results were presented in terms of earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). Three different scenarios were hypothesized: baseline situation at Gemelli ART (scenario 1); reduction by 2 minutes of the average duration of treatment fractions (scenario 2); and increased incidence of advanced treatment modalities (scenario 3). By using the model, predicted EBIT values for each scenario were calculated across a period of eight years (from 2015 to 2022). For both scenarios 2 and 3 costs are expected to slightly increase as compared to baseline situation that is particularly due to a little increase in clinical personnel costs. However, in both cases EBIT values are more favorable than baseline situation (EBIT values: scenario 1, 27%, scenario 2, 30%, scenario 3, 28% of revenues). A model based on a micro-costing method was able to estimate the financial consequences of the introduction of an automation tool in our radiotherapy department. A prospective collection of data at Gemelli ART and in a consortium of centers is currently under way to prospectively validate the model.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

2015-08-06

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Pregnant patients' risk perception of prenatal test results with uncertain fetal clinical significance: ultrasound versus advanced genetic testing.

PubMed

Richards, Elliott G; Sangi-Haghpeykar, Haleh; McGuire, Amy L; Van den Veyver, Ignatia B; Fruhman, Gary

2015-12-01

A common concern of utilizing prenatal advanced genetic testing is that a result of uncertain clinical significance will increase patient anxiety. However, prenatal ultrasound may also yield findings of uncertain significance, such as 'soft markers' for fetal aneuploidy, or findings with variable prognosis, such as mild ventriculomegaly. In this study we compared risk perception following uncertain test results from each modality. A single survey with repeated measures design was administered to 133 pregnant women. It included 'intolerance of uncertainty' questions, two hypothetical scenarios involving prenatal ultrasound or advanced genetic testing, and response questions. The primary outcome was risk perception score. Risk perception did not vary significantly between ultrasound and genetic scenarios (p = 0.17). The genetic scenario scored a higher accuracy (p = 0.04) but lower sense of empowerment (p = 0.01). Furthermore, patients were more likely to seek additional testing after an ultrasound than after genetic testing (p = 0.05). There were no differences in other secondary outcomes including perception of life-altering consequences and hypothetical worry, anxiety, confusion, or medical care decisions. Our data suggest that uncertain findings on prenatal genetic testing do not elicit a higher perception of risk or anxiety when compared to ultrasound findings of comparable uncertainty. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-08-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

[Contrast-enhanced ultrasound for the characterization of incidental liver lesions - an economical evaluation in comparison with multi-phase computed tomography].

PubMed

Giesel, F L; Delorme, S; Sibbel, R; Kauczor, H-U; Krix, M

2009-06-01

The aim of the study was to conduct a cost-minimization analysis of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) compared to multi-phase computed tomography (M-CT) as the diagnostic standard for diagnosing incidental liver lesions. Different scenarios of a cost-covering realization of CEUS in the ambulant sector in the general health insurance system of Germany were compared to the current cost situation. The absolute savings potential was estimated using different approaches for the calculation of the incidence of liver lesions which require further characterization. CEUS was the more cost-effective method in all scenarios in which CEUS examinations where performed at specialized centers (122.18-186.53 euro) compared to M-CT (223.19 euro). With about 40 000 relevant liver lesions per year, systematic implementation of CEUS would result in a cost savings of 4 m euro per year. However, the scenario of a cost-covering CEUS examination for all physicians who perform liver ultrasound would be the most cost-intensive approach (e. g., 407.87 euro at an average utilization of the ultrasound machine of 25 %, and a CEUS ratio of 5 %). A cost-covering realization of the CEUS method can result in cost savings in the German healthcare system. A centralized approach as proposed by the DEGUM should be targeted.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks. PMID:26247438

Association of a Surgical Task During Training With Team Skill Acquisition Among Surgical Residents: The Missing Piece in Multidisciplinary Team Training.

PubMed

Sparks, Jessica L; Crouch, Dustin L; Sobba, Kathryn; Evans, Douglas; Zhang, Jing; Johnson, James E; Saunders, Ian; Thomas, John; Bodin, Sarah; Tonidandel, Ashley; Carter, Jeff; Westcott, Carl; Martin, R Shayn; Hildreth, Amy

2017-09-01

The human patient simulators that are currently used in multidisciplinary operating room team training scenarios cannot simulate surgical tasks because they lack a realistic surgical anatomy. Thus, they eliminate the surgeon's primary task in the operating room. The surgical trainee is presented with a significant barrier when he or she attempts to suspend disbelief and engage in the scenario. To develop and test a simulation-based operating room team training strategy that challenges the communication abilities and teamwork competencies of surgeons while they are engaged in realistic operative maneuvers. This pre-post educational intervention pilot study compared the gains in teamwork skills for midlevel surgical residents at Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center after they participated in a standardized multidisciplinary team training scenario with 3 possible levels of surgical realism: (1) SimMan (Laerdal) (control group, no surgical anatomy); (2) "synthetic anatomy for surgical tasks" mannequin (medium-fidelity anatomy), and (3) a patient simulated by a deceased donor (high-fidelity anatomy). Participation in the simulation scenario and the subsequent debriefing. Teamwork competency was assessed using several instruments with extensive validity evidence, including the Nontechnical Skills assessment, the Trauma Management Skills scoring system, the Crisis Resource Management checklist, and a self-efficacy survey instrument. Participant satisfaction was assessed with a Likert-scale questionnaire. Scenario participants included midlevel surgical residents, anesthesia providers, scrub nurses, and circulating nurses. Statistical models showed that surgical residents exposed to medium-fidelity simulation (synthetic anatomy for surgical tasks) team training scenarios demonstrated greater gains in teamwork skills compared with control groups (SimMan) (Nontechnical Skills video score: 95% CI, 1.06-16.41; Trauma Management Skills video score: 95% CI, 0.61-2.90) and equivalent gains in teamwork skills compared with high-fidelity simulations (deceased donor) (Nontechnical Skills video score: 95% CI, -8.51 to 6.71; Trauma Management Skills video score: 95% CI, -1.70 to 0.49). Including a surgical task in operating room team training significantly enhanced the acquisition of teamwork skills among midlevel surgical residents. Incorporating relatively inexpensive, medium-fidelity synthetic anatomy in human patient simulators was as effective as using high-fidelity anatomies from deceased donors for promoting teamwork skills in this learning group.

A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

2015-04-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches have comparable performances. Moreover, as expected, regional estimates are much more reliable than the at-site estimates. If the scenario is heterogeneous, the performances of the regional models depend on the pattern of heterogeneity; in general, however, the spatially-smooth regional approach performs better than the others, and its performances improve for increasing record lengths. For heterogeneous scenarios, the at-site estimates appear to be comparably more efficient than in the homogeneous case, and in general less biased than the regional estimates.

Grazing intensity affects the environmental impact of dairy systems.

PubMed

Aguirre-Villegas, H A; Passos-Fonseca, T H; Reinemann, D J; Larson, R

2017-08-01

Dairy products are major components of the human diet but are also important contributors to global environmental impacts. This study evaluated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, net energy intensity (NEI), and land use of confined dairy systems with increasing levels of pasture in the diet. A Wisconsin farm was modeled to represent practices adopted by dairy operations in a humid continental climate typical in the Great Lakes region and other climates that have large differences in seasonal temperatures. Five grazing scenarios (all of which contained some portion of confinement) were modeled based on different concentrations of dry matter intake from pasture and feed supplementation from corn grain, corn silage, and soybean meal. Scenarios that incorporate grazing consisted of 5 mo of pasture feeding from May to September and 7 mo of confined feeding from October to April. Environmental impacts were compared within the 5 scenarios that incorporate grazing and across 2 entirely confined scenarios with and without on-farm electricity production through anaerobic digestion (AD). To conduct a fair comparison, all scenarios were evaluated based on the same total amount of milk produced per day where resource inputs were adjusted according to the characteristics of each scenario. A cradle-to-farm gate life cycle assessment evaluated the environmental burdens that were partitioned by allocation between milk and meat and by system expansion when biogas-based electricity was produced. Overall, results for all scenarios were comparable. Enteric methane was the greatest contributor to GHG emissions, and the production of crops was the most energy-intense process. For the confined scenario without AD, GHG emissions were 0.87 kg of CO 2 equivalents, NEI was 1.59 MJ, and land use was 1.59 m 2 /kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM). Anaerobic digestion significantly reduced emissions to 0.28 kg of CO 2 equivalents/kg of FPCM and reduced NEI to -1.26 MJ/kg of FPCM, indicating a net energy producing system and highlighting the potential of AD to improve the sustainability of confined systems. For scenarios that combined confinement and grazing, GHG emissions ranged from 0.84 to 0.92 kg of CO 2 equivalents, NEI ranged from 1.42 to 1.59 MJ, and land use ranged from 1.19 to 1.26 m 2 /kg of FPCM. All environmental impacts were minimized in scenarios that supplemented enough feed to increase milk yield but maintained dry matter intake from pasture at a level high enough to reduce material and energy use. The Authors. Published by the Federation of Animal Science Societies and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Goal-directed transthoracic echocardiography during advanced cardiac life support: A pilot study using simulation to assess ability

PubMed Central

Greenstein, Yonatan Y.; Martin, Thomas J.; Rolnitzky, Linda; Felner, Kevin; Kaufman, Brian

2015-01-01

Introduction Goal-directed echocardiography (GDE) is used to answer specific clinical questions which provide invaluable information to physicians managing a hemodynamically unstable patient. We studied perception and ability of housestaff previously trained in GDE to accurately diagnose common causes of cardiac arrest during simulated advanced cardiac life support (ACLS); we compared their results to those of expert echocardiographers. Methods Eleven pulmonary and critical care medicine fellows, seven emergency medicine residents, and five cardiologists board-certified in echocardiography were enrolled. Baseline ability to acquire four transthoracic echocardiography views was assessed and participants were exposed to six simulated cardiac arrests and were asked to perform a GDE during ACLS. Housestaff performance was compared to the performance of five expert echocardiographers. Results Average baseline and scenario views by housestaff were of good or excellent quality 89% and 83% of the time, respectively. Expert average baseline and scenario views were always of good or excellent quality. Housestaff and experts made the correct diagnosis in 68% and 77% of cases, respectively. On average, participants required 1.5 pulse checks to make the correct diagnosis. 94% of housestaff perceived this study as an accurate assessment of ability. Conclusions In an ACLS compliant manner, housestaff are capable of diagnosing management altering pathologies the majority of the time and they reach similar diagnostic conclusions in the same amount of time as expert echocardiographers in a simulated cardiac arrest scenario. PMID:25932707

Goal-Directed Transthoracic Echocardiography During Advanced Cardiac Life Support: A Pilot Study Using Simulation to Assess Ability.

PubMed

Greenstein, Yonatan Y; Martin, Thomas J; Rolnitzky, Linda; Felner, Kevin; Kaufman, Brian

2015-08-01

Goal-directed echocardiography (GDE) is used to answer specific clinical questions that provide invaluable information to physicians managing a hemodynamically unstable patient. We studied perception and ability of house staff previously trained in GDE to accurately diagnose common causes of cardiac arrest during simulated advanced cardiac life support (ACLS); we compared their results with those of expert echocardiographers. Eleven pulmonary and critical care medicine fellows, 7 emergency medicine residents, and 5 cardiologists board certified in echocardiography were enrolled. Baseline ability to acquire 4 transthoracic echocardiography views was assessed, and participants were exposed to 6 simulated cardiac arrests and were asked to perform a GDE during ACLS. House staff performance was compared with the performance of 5 expert echocardiographers. Average baseline and scenario views by house staff were of good or excellent quality 89% and 83% of the time, respectively. Expert average baseline and scenario views were always of good or excellent quality. House staff and experts made the correct diagnosis in 68% and 77% of cases, respectively. On average, participants required 1.5 pulse checks to make the correct diagnosis. Of house staff, 94% perceived this study as an accurate assessment of ability. In an ACLS-compliant manner, house staff are capable of diagnosing management-altering pathologies the majority of the time, and they reach similar diagnostic conclusions in the same amount of time as expert echocardiographers in a simulated cardiac arrest scenario.

Managing Multiplicity: Conceptualizing Physician Cognition in Multipatient Environments.

PubMed

Chan, Teresa M; Mercuri, Mathew; Van Dewark, Kenneth; Sherbino, Jonathan; Schwartz, Alan; Norman, Geoff; Lineberry, Matthew

2018-05-01

Emergency physicians (EPs) regularly manage multiple patients simultaneously, often making time-sensitive decisions around priorities for multiple patients. Few studies have explored physician cognition in multipatient scenarios. The authors sought to develop a conceptual framework to describe how EPs think in busy, multipatient environments. From July 2014 to May 2015, a qualitative study was conducted at McMaster University, using a think-aloud protocol to examine how 10 attending EPs and 10 junior residents made decisions in multipatient environments. Participants engaged in the think-aloud exercise for five different simulated multipatient scenarios. Transcripts from recorded interviews were analyzed inductively, with an iterative process involving two independent coders, and compared between attendings and residents. The attending EPs and junior residents used similar processes to prioritize patients in these multipatient scenarios. The think-aloud processes demonstrated a similar process used by almost all participants. The cognitive task of patient prioritization consisted of three components: a brief overview of the entire cohort of patients to determine a general strategy; an individual chart review, whereby the participant created a functional patient story from information available in a file (i.e., vitals, brief clinical history); and creation of a relative priority list. Compared with residents, the attendings were better able to construct deeper and more complex patient stories. The authors propose a conceptual framework for how EPs prioritize care for multiple patients in complex environments. This study may be useful to teachers who train physicians to function more efficiently in busy clinical environments.

Low cost, high yield: simulation of obstetric emergencies for family medicine training.

PubMed

Magee, Susanna R; Shields, Robin; Nothnagle, Melissa

2013-01-01

Simulation is now the educational standard for emergency training in residency and is particularly useful on a labor and delivery unit, which is often a stressful environment for learners given the frequency of emergencies. However, simulation can be costly. This study aimed to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of low-cost simulated obstetrical emergencies in training family medicine residents. The study took place in a community hospital in an urban underserved setting in the northeast United States. Low-cost simulations were developed for postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) and preeclampsia/eclampsia (PEC). Twenty residents were randomly assigned to the intervention (simulated PPH or PEC followed by debriefing) or control (lecture on PPH or PEC) group, and equal numbers of residents were assigned to each scenario. All participants completed a written test at baseline and an oral exam 6 months later on the respective scenario to which they were assigned. The participants provided written feedback on their respective teaching interventions. We compared performance on pretests and posttests by group using Wilcoxon Rank Sum. Twenty residents completed the study. Both groups performed similarly on baseline tests for both scenarios. Compared to controls, intervention residents scored significantly higher on the examination on the management of PPH but not for PEC. All intervention group participants reported that the simulation training was "extremely useful," and most found it "enjoyable." We demonstrated the feasibility and acceptability of two low-cost obstetric emergency simulations and found that they may result in persistent increases in trainee knowledge.

Life cycle and economic assessment of source-separated MSW collection with regard to greenhouse gas emissions: a case study in China.

PubMed

Dong, Jun; Ni, Mingjiang; Chi, Yong; Zou, Daoan; Fu, Chao

2013-08-01

In China, the continuously increasing amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) has resulted in an urgent need for changing the current municipal solid waste management (MSWM) system based on mixed collection. A pilot program focusing on source-separated MSW collection was thus launched (2010) in Hangzhou, China, to lessen the related environmental loads. And greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Kyoto Protocol) are singled out in particular. This paper uses life cycle assessment modeling to evaluate the potential environmental improvement with regard to GHG emissions. The pre-existing MSWM system is assessed as baseline, while the source separation scenario is compared internally. Results show that 23 % GHG emissions can be decreased by source-separated collection compared with the base scenario. In addition, the use of composting and anaerobic digestion (AD) is suggested for further optimizing the management of food waste. 260.79, 82.21, and -86.21 thousand tonnes of GHG emissions are emitted from food waste landfill, composting, and AD, respectively, proving the emission reduction potential brought by advanced food waste treatment technologies. Realizing the fact, a modified MSWM system is proposed by taking AD as food waste substitution option, with additional 44 % GHG emissions saved than current source separation scenario. Moreover, a preliminary economic assessment is implemented. It is demonstrated that both source separation scenarios have a good cost reduction potential than mixed collection, with the proposed new system the most cost-effective one.

Clinical evidence inputs to comparative effectiveness research could impact the development of novel treatments.

PubMed

Eber, Michael R; Goldman, Dana P; Lakdawalla, Darius N; Philipson, Tomas J; Pritchard, Daryl; Huesch, Marco; Summers, Nicholas; Linthicum, Mark T; Sullivan, Jeff; Dubois, Robert W

2015-05-07

This study aims to analyze the impacts of a range of clinical evidence generation scenarios associated with comparative effectiveness research (CER) on pharmaceutical innovation. We used the Global Pharmaceutical Policy Model to project the effect of changes in pharmaceutical producer costs, revenues and timings on drug innovation and health for the age 55+ populations in the USA and Europe through year 2060 using three clinical scenarios. Changes in producer incentives from widespread CER evidence generation and use had varied but often large predicted impacts on simulated outcomes in 2060. Effect on the number of new drug introductions ranged from a 81.1% reduction to a 45.5% increase, and the effect on population-level life expectancy ranged from a 15.6% reduction to a 11.4% increase compared to baseline estimates. The uncertainty surrounding the consequences of increased clinical evidence generation and use on innovation calls for a carefully measured approach to CER implementation, balancing near-term benefits to spending and health with long-term implications for innovation.

Evaluating EDGARv4.tox2 speciated mercury emissions ex-post scenarios and their impacts on modelled global and regional wet deposition patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Giang, Amanda; Selin, Noelle E.; Zhong, Hui; Zhao, Yu; Olivier, Jos G. J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Crippa, Monica; Schaaf, Edwin; Dentener, Frank

2018-07-01

Speciated mercury gridded emissions inventories together with chemical transport models and concentration measurements are essential when investigating both the effectiveness of mitigation measures and the mercury cycle in the environment. Since different mercury species have contrasting behaviour in the atmosphere, their proportion in anthropogenic emissions could determine the spatial impacts. In this study, the time series from 1970 to 2012 of the EDGARv4.tox2 global mercury emissions inventory are described; the total global mercury emission in 2010 is 1772 tonnes. Global grid-maps with geospatial distribution of mercury emissions at a 0.1° × 0.1° resolution are provided for each year. Compared to the previous tox1 version, tox2 provides updates for more recent years and improved emissions in particular for agricultural waste burning, power generation and artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sectors. We have also developed three retrospective emissions scenarios based on different hypotheses related to the proportion of mercury species in the total mercury emissions for each activity sector; improvements in emissions speciation are seen when using information primarily from field measurements. We evaluated them using the GEOS-Chem 3-D mercury model in order to explore the influence of speciation shifts, to reactive mercury forms in particular, on regional wet deposition patterns. The reference scenario S1 (EDGARv4.tox2_S1) uses speciation factors from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP); scenario S2 ("EPA_power") uses factors from EPA's Information Collection Request (ICR); and scenario S3 ("Asia_filedM") factors from recent scientific publications. In the reference scenario, the sum of reactive mercury emissions (Hg-P and Hg2+) accounted for 25.3% of the total global emissions; the regions/countries that have shares of reactive mercury emissions higher than 6% in total global reactive mercury are China+ (30.9%), India+ (12.5%) and the United States (9.9%). In 2010, the variations of reactive mercury emissions amongst the different scenarios are in the range of -19.3 t/yr (China+) to 4.4 t/yr (OECD_Europe). However, at the sector level, the variation could be different, e.g., for the iron and steel industry in China reaches 15.4 t/yr. Model evaluation at the global level shows a variation of approximately ±10% in wet deposition for the three emissions scenarios. An evaluation of the impact of mercury speciation within nested grid sensitivity simulations is performed for the United States and modelled wet deposition fluxes are compared with measurements. These studies show that using the S2 and S3 emissions of reactive mercury, can improve wet deposition estimates near sources.

Detectability of CO2 Flux Signals by a Space-Based Lidar Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammerling, Dorit M.; Kawa, S. Randolph; Schaefer, Kevin; Doney, Scott; Michalak, Anna M.

2015-01-01

Satellite observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) offer novel and distinctive opportunities for improving our quantitative understanding of the carbon cycle. Prospective observations include those from space-based lidar such as the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission. Here we explore the ability of such a mission to detect regional changes in CO2 fluxes. We investigate these using three prototypical case studies, namely the thawing of permafrost in the Northern High Latitudes, the shifting of fossil fuel emissions from Europe to China, and changes in the source-sink characteristics of the Southern Ocean. These three scenarios were used to design signal detection studies to investigate the ability to detect the unfolding of these scenarios compared to a baseline scenario. Results indicate that the ASCENDS mission could detect the types of signals investigated in this study, with the caveat that the study is based on some simplifying assumptions. The permafrost thawing flux perturbation is readily detectable at a high level of significance. The fossil fuel emission detectability is directly related to the strength of the signal and the level of measurement noise. For a nominal (lower) fossil fuel emission signal, only the idealized noise-free instrument test case produces a clearly detectable signal, while experiments with more realistic noise levels capture the signal only in the higher (exaggerated) signal case. For the Southern Ocean scenario, differences due to the natural variability in the ENSO climatic mode are primarily detectable as a zonal increase.

Simulated effects of Lower Floridan aquifer pumping on the Upper Floridan aquifer at Rincon, Effingham County, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, Gregory S.; Clarke, John S.

2015-01-01

A steady-state simulation representing implementation of drawdown-offset-pumping reductions totaling 292 gal/min at Rincon UFA production wells 36S034 and 36S035 and pumping from the new LFA well 36S048 at 1,000 gal/min (scenario C) resulted in decreased magnitude and areal extent of drawdown in the UFA compared with scenario A. In the latter scenario, the LFA well was pumped without UFA drawdown-offset-pumping reductions. Water budgets for scenario C yielded percentage contributions from flow components that were consistent with those from scenario B. Specifically, 69 percent of the increased pumping in scenario C originated from general-head boundaries from overlying units of the surficial and Brunswick aquifer systems and the balance of flow was derived from general- and specified-head boundaries in the UFA. In all scenarios, the placement of model boundaries and type of boundary exerted the greatest control on overall groundwater flow and interaquifer leakage in the system.

The Effects of Teaching and Assessment Methods on Academic Performance: A Study of an Operations Management Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sacristán-Díaz, Macarena; Garrido-Vega, Pedro; Alfalla-Luque, Rafaela; González-Zamora, María-del-Mar

2016-01-01

Whether the use of more active teaching-learning methods has a positive impact on academic performance remains unanswered. This article seeks to contribute to the issue by conducting a study of an Operations Management course with almost 1000 students per year over three consecutive academic years. The study compares three scenarios with differing…

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

2010-06-01

Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

Describing Treatment Effects to Patients

PubMed Central

Moxey, Annette; O'Connell, Dianne; McGettigan, Patricia; Henry, David

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE To examine the impact of different presentations of equivalent information (framing) on treatment decisions faced by patients. DESIGN A systematic review of the published literature was conducted. English language publications allocating participants to different frames were retrieved using electronic and bibliographic searches. Two reviewers examined each article for inclusion, and assessed methodological quality. Study characteristics were tabulated and where possible, relative risks (RR; 95% confidence intervals) were calculated to estimate intervention effects. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Thirty-seven articles, yielding 40 experimental studies, were included. Studies examined treatment (N = 24), immunization (N = 5), or health behavior scenarios (N = 11). Overall, active treatments were preferred when outcomes were described in terms of relative rather than absolute risk reductions or number needed to treat. Surgery was preferred to other treatments when treatment efficacy was presented in a positive frame (survival) rather than a negative frame (mortality) (relative risk [RR] = 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39 to 1.64). Framing effects were less obvious for immunization and health behavior scenarios. Those with little interest in the behavior at baseline were influenced by framing, particularly when information was presented as gains. In studies judged to be of good methodological quality and/or examining actual decisions, the framing effect, although still evident, was less convincing compared to the results of all included studies. CONCLUSIONS Framing effects varied with the type of scenario, responder characteristics, scenario manipulations, and study quality. When describing treatment effects to patients, expressing the information in more than one way may present a balanced view to patients and enable them to make informed decisions. PMID:14687282

Strategies for a better performance of RPL under mobility in wireless sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latib, Z. A.; Jamil, A.; Alduais, N. A. M.; Abdullah, J.; Audah, L. H. M.; Alias, R.

2017-09-01

A Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) is usually stationary, which the network comprises of static nodes. The increase demand for mobility in various applications such as environmental monitoring, medical, home automation, and military, raises the question how IPv6 Routing Protocol for Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPL) would perform under these mobility applications. This paper aims to understand performance of RPL and come out with strategies for a better performance of RPL in mobility scenarios. Because of this, this paper evaluates the performance of the RPL protocol under three different scenarios: sink and sensor nodes are static, static sink and mobile sensor nodes, and sink and sensor nodes are mobile. The network scenarios are implemented in Cooja simulator. A WSN consists of 25 sensor nodes and one sink node is configured in the simulation environment. The simulation is varied over different packet rates and ContikiMAC's Clear Channel Assessment (CCA) rate. As the performance metric, RPL is evaluated in term of packet delivery ratio (PDR), power consumption and packet rates. The simulation results show RPL provides a poor PDR in the mobility scenarios when compared to the static scenario. In addition, RPL consumes more power and increases duty-cycle rate to support mobility when compared to the static scenario. Based on the findings, we suggest three strategies for a better performance of RPL in mobility scenarios. First, RPL should operates at a lower packet rates when implemented in the mobility scenarios. Second, RPL should be implemented with a higher duty-cycle rate. Lastly, the sink node should be positioned as much as possible in the center of the mobile network.

STELLAR POPULATION AND GAS KINEMATICS OF POST-STARBURST QUASARS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanmartim, David; Storchi-Bergmann, Thaisa

2018-01-01

Post-Starburst Quasars (PSQs) are an intriguing set of galaxies that simultaneously host AGNs and post-starburst stellar populations, making them one of the most suitable objects to investigate the nature of the connection between these two components. The simultaneous presence of a post-starburst population and nuclear activity may be explained by two possible scenarios. In the secular evolutionary scenario star formation may cease due to exhaustion of the gas, while in the quenching one it may cease abruptly when the nuclear activity is triggered. In order to test these scenarios we have mapped the star formation history, manifestations of nuclear activity and excitation mechanisms in the central kpc of two nearby PSQs by using GMOS-IFU observations. In these two first exploratory studies, we have found that the young and intermediate age populations are located in a ring at ≈300-500 kpc, with some contribution of the intermediate age component also in the central region. In both of them, the gas outflow does not coincide with the young stellar population ring, which suggests that the ring is not being affected by the AGN feedback, but only the innermost regions. The individual study one of the PSQs of the sample has supported the evolutionary scenario, since the post-starburst population is not located close enough to the nucleus, where the outflow is observed. As a general behaviour, we found that outflows velocity are on the order of ~600-800 km/s and the mass outflow rates of ≈0.03-0.1 M⊙/yr, one order of magnitude greater than the AGN accretion rate, which suggests a scenario where the AGN-driven wind has entrained material from the circumnuclear region. In order to increase the statistical significance of our previous results and to distinguish between the proposed scenarios, we are conducting the same analysis to a wider sample of PSQs, which we hope will indicate more conclusively which is the favored scenario. During the meeting, we will present more detailed results of our two first exploratory studies as well for for other 3 PSQs of our sample and compare them to a control sample.

Estimating the Impact of Reducing Under-Nutrition on the Tuberculosis Epidemic in the Central Eastern States of India: A Dynamic Modeling Study.

PubMed

Oxlade, Olivia; Huang, Chuan-Chin; Murray, Megan

2015-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) and under-nutrition are widespread in many low and middle-income countries. Momentum to prioritize under-nutrition has been growing at an international level, as demonstrated by the "Scaling Up Nutrition" movement. Low body mass index is an important risk factor for developing TB disease. The objective of this study was to project future trends in TB related outcomes under different scenarios for reducing under-nutrition in the adult population in the Central Eastern states of India. A compartmental TB transmission model stratified by body mass index was parameterized using national and regional data from India. We compared TB related mortality and incidence under several scenarios that represented a range of policies and programs designed to reduce the prevalence of under-nutrition, based on the experience and observed trends in similar countries. The modeled nutrition intervention scenarios brought about reductions in TB incidence and TB related mortality in the Central Eastern Indian states ranging from 43% to 71% and 40% to 68% respectively, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Modest reductions in under-nutrition averted 4.8 (95% UR 0.5, 17.1) million TB cases and 1.6 (95% UR 0.5, 5.2) million TB related deaths over a period of 20 years of intervention, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Complete elimination of under-nutrition in the Central Eastern states averted 9.4 (95% UR 1.5, 30.6) million TB cases and 3.2 (95% UR 0.7-, 10.1) million TB related deaths, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Our study suggests that intervening on under-nutrition could have a substantial impact on TB incidence and mortality in areas with high prevalence of under-nutrition, even if only small gains in under-nutrition can be achieved. Focusing on under-nutrition may be an effective way to reduce both rates of TB and other diseases associated with under-nutrition.

Towards low carbon society in Iskandar Malaysia: Implementation and feasibility of community organic waste composting.

PubMed

Bong, Cassendra Phun-Chien; Goh, Rebecca Kar Yee; Lim, Jeng-Shiun; Ho, Wai Shin; Lee, Chew-Tin; Hashim, Haslenda; Abu Mansor, Nur Naha; Ho, Chin Siong; Ramli, Abdul Rahim; Takeshi, Fujiwara

2017-12-01

Rapid population growth and urbanisation have generated large amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) in many cities. Up to 40-60% of Malaysia's MSW is reported to be food waste where such waste is highly putrescible and can cause bad odour and public health issue if its disposal is delayed. In this study, the implementation of community composting in a village within Iskandar Malaysia is presented as a case study to showcase effective MSW management and mitigation of GHG emission. The selected village, Felda Taib Andak (FTA), is located within a palm oil plantation and a crude palm oil processing mill. This project showcases a community-composting prototype to compost food and oil palm wastes into high quality compost. The objective of this article is to highlight the economic and environment impacts of a community-based composting project to the key stakeholders in the community, including residents, oil palm plantation owners and palm oil mill operators by comparing three different scenarios, through a life cycle approach, in terms of the greenhouse gas emission and cost benefit analysis. First scenario is the baseline case, where all the domestic waste is sent to landfill site. In the second scenario, a small-scale centralised composting project was implemented. In the third scenario, the data obtained from Scenario 2 was used to do a projection on the GHG emission and costing analysis for a pilot-scale centralised composting plant. The study showed a reduction potential of 71.64% on GHG emission through the diversion of food waste from landfill, compost utilisation and significant revenue from the compost sale in Scenario 3. This thus provided better insight into the feasibility and desirability in implementing a pilot-scale centralised composting plant for a sub-urban community in Malaysia to achieve a low carbon and self-sustainable society, in terms of environment and economic aspects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vietnam's forest transition in retrospect: demonstrating weaknesses in business-as-usual scenarios for REDD.

PubMed

Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

2015-05-01

One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

Vietnam's Forest Transition in Retrospect: Demonstrating Weaknesses in Business-as-Usual Scenarios for REDD+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

2015-05-01

One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

[Relationships between settlement morphology transition and residents commuting energy consumption].

PubMed

Zhou, Jian; Xiao, Rong-Bo; Sun, Xiang

2013-07-01

Settlement morphology transition is triggered by rapid urbanization and urban expansion, but its relationships with residents commuting energy consumption remains ambiguous. It is of significance to understand the controlling mechanisms of sustainable public management policies on the energy consumption and greenhouse gases emission during the process of urban settlement morphology transition. Taking the Xiamen City of East China as a case, and by using the integrated land use and transportation modeling system TRANUS, a scenario analysis was made to study the effects of urban settlement morphology transition on the urban spatial distribution of population, jobs, and land use, and on the residents commuting energy consumption and greenhouse gasses emission under different scenarios. The results showed that under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the energy consumption of the residents at the morning peak travel time was 54.35 tce, and the CO2 emission was 119.12 t. As compared with those under BAU scenario, both the energy consumption and the CO2 emission under the Transition of Settlement Morphology (TSM) scenario increased by 12%, and, with the implementation of the appropriate policies such as land use, transportation, and economy, the energy consumption and CO2 emission under the Transition of Settlement Morphology with Policies (TSMP) scenario reduced by 7%, indicating that urban public management policies could effectively control the growth of residents commuting energy consumption and greenhouse gases emission during the period of urban settlement morphology transition.

Classification and treatment of follicular thyroid neoplasms are discordant between and within medical specialties.

PubMed

Perrier, N D; Ituarte, P H; Treseler, P; D'Avanzo, A; Siperstein, A; Duh, Q Y; Clark, O H

1999-12-01

The histologic criteria to classify follicular thyroid neoplasms are controversial. Criteria used for diagnosis and treatment varies both within and between specialty groups. This discordance makes it difficult to compare disease and management practice. This is especially problematic in issues concerning reoperations and survival. To determine the degree of disparity, we surveyed 3 groups of specialists. A questionnaire describing 10 histologic scenarios was sent to an equal number of thyroidologists, endocrine surgeons, and endocrine pathologists. Individuals were randomly selected from rosters of 3 corresponding societies. Each item asked for a rating of a diagnosis and treatment. Questionnaires were distributed and received by facsimile, and responses were kept confidential. The response rate was 60%. Responses were analyzed by nonparametric statistical tests. Two scenarios had significant disagreement among specialties in both diagnosis and treatment: one scenario involved the assessment of neoplasms with minimal capsular invasion; the other scenario involved Hürthle cell features. In both scenarios pathologists tended to be more conservative in assigning the term carcinoma and recommending total thyroidectomy. Significant disagreement within specialty groups was also noted. Two other scenarios dealt with the distinction between minimally and widely invasive carcinoma; significantly, pathologists viewed tumors as less invasive. This study indicates that much disparity exists among specialists in pathology, endocrinology, and surgery and among experts in each of these disciplines. It highlights that there is no uniform classification. If multicenter trials to evaluate treatment options are to occur, a universal classification must be accepted.

Budgetary impact on a U.S. health plan adopting abiraterone acetate plus prednisone for the treatment of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

PubMed

Sorensen, Sonja; Ellis, Lorie; Wu, Ying; Hutchins, Valerie; Linnehan, John E; Senbetta, Mekré

2013-01-01

Abiraterone acetate, an androgen biosynthesis inhibitor, received FDA approval in 2011 for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) patients who have received prior chemotherapy containing docetaxel. To estimate the projected budgetary impact of adopting abiraterone for mCRPC patients from a U.S. health plan perspective. A decision analytic model compared mCRPC treatment cost before and after abiraterone acetate adoption based on a hypothetical 1,000,000-member plan. Plan mCRPC prevalence was derived from prostate cancer incidence reported in U.S. epidemiology statistics and disease progression data from published trials. Market shares for comparator mCRPC treatments (prednisone alone; cabazitaxel + prednisone; mitoxantrone + prednisone; docetaxel retreatment + prednisone) were derived from market research simulation. Abiraterone + prednisone uptake (8% - scenario 1 to 55% - scenario 3) was based on assumptions for illustrative purposes. Treatment costs were computed using prescribing information, treatment duration from phase III trials, and drug costs considering common U.S. cost listing and reimbursement schemes. Prevalence and costs of managing treatment-related toxicities were estimated from literature, treatment guidelines, and expert clinical opinion. The model evaluated the perspectives of a commercial payer with no Medicare beneficiaries and a commercial payer with a subset of Medicare beneficiaries. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess changing input values. In each modeled scenario, 57 patients with prior docetaxel therapy received treatment for mCRPC. For the commercial perspective, the incremental per-member-per-month (PMPM) cost attributable to abiraterone ranged from $0.0019 in scenario 1 to $0.0133 in scenario 3. For the commercial/Medicare perspective, the incremental PMPM ranged from $0.0026 in scenario 1 to $0.0176 in scenario 3. The average incremental PMPM cost over 3 scenarios is $0.0112. When testing key sensitivity scenarios, the model indicated that abiraterone treatment duration and cabazitaxel market share were the main drivers of cost. The model results indicate that reimbursement for abiraterone may have a neutral impact on a U.S. health plan budget given the relatively small size of the eligible prostate cancer population and expected lower toxicity-related costs as compared with chemotherapy. The sensitivity analyses addressing the components of uncertainty in the model show that the budgetary impact of abiraterone is likely low.

Numerical Hydrodynamic Study of Hypothetical Levee Setback Scenarios

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-01

ER D C /C HL T R- 18 -1 Flood and Coastal Systems Research and Development Program Numerical Hydrodynamic Study of Hypothetical Levee...default. Flood and Coastal Systems Research and Development Program ERDC/CHL TR-18-1 January 2018 Numerical Hydrodynamic Study of Hypothetical...Reduction” ERDC/CHL TR-18-1 ii Abstract A numerical hydrodynamic study was conducted to compare multiple levee setback alternatives to the base

Cost-Effectiveness of Histamine2 Receptor Antagonists Versus Proton Pump Inhibitors for Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in Critically Ill Patients.

PubMed

Hammond, Drayton A; Kathe, Niranjan; Shah, Anuj; Martin, Bradley C

2017-01-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of stress ulcer prophylaxis with histamine 2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) versus proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) in critically ill and mechanically ventilated adults. A decision analytic model estimating the costs and effectiveness of stress ulcer prophylaxis (with H2RAs and PPIs) from a health care institutional perspective. Adult mixed intensive care unit (ICU) population who received an H2RA or PPI for up to 9 days. Effectiveness measures were mortality during the ICU stay and complication rate. Costs (2015 U.S. dollars) were combined to include medication regimens and untoward events associated with stress ulcer prophylaxis (pneumonia, Clostridium difficile infection, and stress-related mucosal bleeding). Costs and probabilities for complications and mortality from complications came from randomized controlled trials and observational studies. A base case scenario was developed with pooled data from an observational study and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Scenarios based on observational and meta-analysis data alone were evaluated. Outcomes were expected and incremental costs, mortalities, and complication rates. Univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the influence of inputs on cost, mortality, and complication rates. Monte Carlo simulations evaluated second-order uncertainty. In the base case scenario, the costs, complication rates, and mortality rates were $9039, 17.6%, and 2.50%, respectively, for H2RAs and $11,249, 22.0%, and 3.34%, respectively, for PPIs, indicating that H2RAs dominated PPIs. The observational study-based model provided similar results; however, in the meta-analysis-based model, H2RAs had a cost of $8364 and mortality rate of 3.2% compared with $7676 and 2.0%, respectively, for PPIs. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/death averted, H2RA therapy was superior or preferred 70.3% in the base case and 97.0% in the observational study-based scenario. PPI therapy was preferred 87.2% in the meta-analysis-based scenario. Providing stress ulcer prophylaxis with H2RA therapy may reduce costs, increase survival, and avoid complications compared with PPI therapy. This finding is highly sensitive to the pneumonia and stress-related mucosal bleeding rates and whether observational data are used to inform the model. © 2016 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

PubMed Central

Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

2012-01-01

Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

Incremental sanitation improvement strategy: comparison of options for Hanoi, Vietnam.

PubMed

Harada, H; Matsui, S; Dong, N T; Shimizu, Y; Fujii, S

2010-01-01

Urban sanitation issues should be tackled strategically, and may be addressed effectively when sewage development is pursued in conjunction with complementary sanitation measures. Five sanitation improvement scenarios employing sewage, night-soil collection-and-treatment (NSCT) system, and/or septic-tank improvement by annual dislodging were analyzed from the perspective of COD loads, total nitrogen loads, and cost under the conditions found in Hanoi, Vietnam. Compared to the development of sewage alone, the scenario of developing NSCT systems in a complementary manner with sewage development was estimated to be the most effective for a rapid decrease of both COD and total nitrogen loads. However, it may be difficult in some cases to replace ordinary water-flush toilet by the micro-flush toilet that are used in NSCT systems. In this case, the scenario employing septic-tank improvement in conjunction with sewage development may be effective for a rapid decrease of COD in locations where septic tanks are widely used under poor maintenance conditions and nitrogen pollution is not serious compared to COD. It was calculated that the two scenarios above would respectively require cost increases of 16 and 22% over the sewage development scenario.

Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

PubMed

Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

2012-10-24

Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model.

A study of the differential effects of Tomm's questioning styles on therapeutic alliance.

PubMed

Ryan, D; Carr, A

2001-01-01

To replicate and extend Dozier's (1992) test of Tomm's hypothesis about the differential effects of questioning styles on therapeutic alliance, an analogue study was conducted. Twenty-eight family triads, each including a son and his parents, viewed four videotaped, simulated family therapy scenarios in which Tomm's four questioning styles were separately portrayed. Participants were asked to identify with the client whose role corresponded to theirs (that is, father, mother, or son) and, on the basis of this, to rate the client's alliance with the therapist. They were also asked to rate the overall alliance between the family and the therapist. Finally, having viewed all four scenarios, they were invited to rate comparatively the quality of the therapeutic alliance across the four questioning styles. Compared with strategic and lineal questioning styles, circular and reflexive questions led to higher ratings of therapeutic alliance on all three measures. The results of this study support Tomm's hypothesis that questioning styles based on circular assumptions lead to a better therapeutic alliance at an individual and systemic level than do questions based on lineal assumptions.

Big Data Processing for a Central Texas Groundwater Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantu, A.; Rivera, O.; Martínez, A.; Lewis, D. H.; Gentle, J. N., Jr.; Fuentes, G.; Pierce, S. A.

2016-12-01

As computational methods improve, scientists are able to expand the level and scale of experimental simulation and testing that is completed for case studies. This study presents a comparative analysis of multiple models for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards aquifer. Several numerical simulations using state-mandated MODFLOW models ran on Stampede, a High Performance Computing system housed at the Texas Advanced Computing Center, were performed for multiple scenario testing. One goal of this multidisciplinary project aims to visualize and compare the output data of the groundwater model using the statistical programming language R to find revealing data patterns produced by different pumping scenarios. Presenting data in a friendly post-processing format is covered in this paper. Visualization of the data and creating workflows applicable to the management of the data are tasks performed after data extraction. Resulting analyses provide an example of how supercomputing can be used to accelerate evaluation of scientific uncertainty and geological knowledge in relation to policy and management decisions. Understanding the aquifer behavior helps policy makers avoid negative impact on the endangered species, environmental services and aids in maximizing the aquifer yield.

Landscape changes, traditional ecological knowledge and future scenarios in the Alps: A holistic ecological approach.

PubMed

Tattoni, Clara; Ianni, Elena; Geneletti, Davide; Zatelli, Paolo; Ciolli, Marco

2017-02-01

In recent decades, a dramatic landscape change has occurred in the European alpine region: open areas have been naturally recolonized by forests as traditional agricultural and forest activities were reduced and reorganized. Land use changes (LUC) are generally measured through GIS and photo interpretation techniques, but despite many studies focused on this phenomenon and its effects on biodiversity and on the environment in general, there is a lack of information about the transformation of the human-environment connection. The study of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), such as the ability to recognize wild plants used as medicine or food, can suggest how this connection evolved through time and generations. This work investigates the relationship between the natural forest cover expansion that influences the loss of open areas and the loss of TEK. Different data sources and approaches were used to address the topic in all its complexity: a mix of questionnaire investigations, historical maps, GIS techniques and modelling were used to analyse past land use changes and predict future scenarios. The study area, Trentino, Italy, is paradigmatic of the alpine situation, and the land use change in the region is well documented by different studies, which were reviewed and compared in this paper. Our findings suggest that open area loss can be used as a good proxy to highlight the present state and to produce future scenarios of Traditional Ecological Knowledge. This could increase awareness of the loss of TEK in other Alpine regions, where data on TEK are lacking, but where environmental trends are comparable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hamilton-Jacobi formalism to warm inflationary scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayar, K.; Mohammadi, A.; Akhtari, L.; Saaidi, Kh.

2017-01-01

The Hamilton-Jacobi formalism as a powerful method is being utilized to reconsider the warm inflationary scenario, where the scalar field as the main component driving inflation interacts with other fields. Separating the context into strong and weak dissipative regimes, the goal is followed for two popular functions of Γ . Applying slow-rolling approximation, the required perturbation parameters are extracted and, by comparing to the latest Planck data, the free parameters are restricted. The possibility of producing an acceptable inflation is studied where the result shows that for all cases the model could successfully suggest the amplitude of scalar perturbation, scalar spectral index, its running, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio.

Specific heat and Knight shift of cuprates within the van Hove scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarkar, S.; Das, A.N.

1996-12-01

The jump in the specific heat at {ital T}{sub {ital c}}, the specific heat in both the superconducting and normal states, and the Knight shift in the superconducting state are studied within the van Hove singularity scenario considering density of states for a two-dimensional tight-binding system and with an extended saddle-point singularity. The role of the electron-phonon interaction strength, band narrowing, second-nearest-neighbor hopping, and orthorhombic distortion on such properties is investigated. The experimental results on the specific heat and Knight shift of the Y-123 system are compared with the theoretical predictions. {copyright} {ital 1996 The American Physical Society.}

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Development of daily temperature scenarios and their impact on paddy crop evapotranspiration in Kangsabati command area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhage, P. M.; Raghuwanshi, N. S.; Singh, R.; Mishra, A.

2017-05-01

Production of the principal paddy crop in West Bengal state of India is vulnerable to climate change due to limited water resources and strong dependence on surface irrigation. Therefore, assessment of impact of temperature scenarios on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is essential for irrigation management in Kangsabati command (West Bengal). In the present study, impact of the projected temperatures on ETc was studied under climate change scenarios. Further, the performance of the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD) technique was compared with the two well-known downscaling techniques, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Kernel regression (KR), for the projections of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures for four stations, namely, Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, and Kharagpur. In National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and General Circulation Model (GCM), 14 predictors were used in MLR and KR techniques, whereas maximum and minimum surface air temperature predictor of CanESM2 GCM was used in BCSD technique. The comparison results indicated that the performance of the BCSD technique was better than the MLR and KR techniques. Therefore, the BCSD technique was used to project the future temperatures of study locations with three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for the period of 2006-2100. The warming tendencies of maximum and minimum temperatures over the Kangsabati command area were projected as 0.013 and 0.014 °C/year under RCP 2.6, 0.015 and 0.023 °C/year under RCP 4.5, and 0.056 and 0.061 °C/year under RCP 8.5 for 2011-2100 period, respectively. As a result, kharif (monsoon) crop evapotranspiration demand of Kangsabati reservoir command (project area) will increase by approximately 10, 8, and 18 % over historical demand under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

DNA transfer-a never ending story. A study on scenarios involving a second person as carrier.

PubMed

Helmus, Janine; Bajanowski, Thomas; Poetsch, Micaela

2016-01-01

The transfer of DNA directly from one item to another has been shown in many studies with elaborate discussions on the nature of the DNA donor as well as material and surface of the items or surrounding features. Every DNA transfer scenario one can imagine seems to be possible. This evokes more and more intricate scenarios proposed by lawyers or attorneys searching for an explanation of the DNA of a certain person on a distinct item with impact on a crime. At court, the forensic genetic scientist has to comment on the probability of these scenarios thus calling for extensive studies on such settings. Here, the possibility of an involvement of a second person as a carrier of the donor's DNA in a variety of different scenarios including three pairs of people and two kinds of items (textiles and plastic bags) was investigated. All transfer settings were executed with and without gloves on the carrier's hands. DNA left on the items was isolated and analyzed using the Powerplex® ESX17 kit. In 21 out of 180 samples, all alleles of the donor DNA could be obtained on the second item (12%), on eight samples, the donor's DNA was dominant compared to all other alleles (38% of samples with complete donor profile). Additionally, 51 samples displayed at least more than half of the donor's alleles (28%). The complete DNA profile of the carrier was found in 47 out of 180 samples (42 partial profiles). In summary, it could be shown that a transfer of donor DNA from epithelial cells through a carrier to a second item is possible, even if the carrier does not wear gloves.

The creation of reasonable projections toward sustainable development considering the climate and socioeconomic changes in the Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Iida, A.; Nakatani, J.; Noda, K.; Take, M.; Nakamura, S.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate and socioeconomic change in the future are important factors to consider when discussing the issues of sustainable development in the Pacific Islands, since their impacts here are relatively large compared to those in other regions due to the severe limitation of internal resources and the external dependency of the life essentials. The tourism industry is the key driving force behind the economic growth in island region and it is promoted by the environmental attractions. This study constructs scenarios that foresees the effects of these changes and assesses the subsequent impact on both the local community and the tourism industry. In this study, the scenarios have been developed based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The progress of climate change was expected to affect the attraction of tourists as well as resources availability and food production. The difference of SSPs was expected to affect the quality of life in the local society and the quantity and/or the quality of tourism. A downscale and bias-correction using a local dataset was applied to assess the impacts of climate change, and the relationships between GDP, population, and estimated land availability in the current situation were applied to assess the impact of socioeconomic change. As case studies, the scenarios were constructed to assess the impacts in the Republic of Palau and Ishigaki Island, Japan. Both are typical islands where tourism is the main industry. The situation of environmental resources, local society, and tourism under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions was assessed using these scenarios. The creation of reasonable projections under appropriate scenarios can contribute to sustainable development not only in these islands but also in most Pacific Islands.

Investigating the Extent Realistic Moulage Impacts on Immersion and Performance Among Undergraduate Paramedicine Students in a Simulation-based Trauma Scenario: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Mills, Brennen W; Miles, Alecka K; Phan, Tina; Dykstra, Peggy M C; Hansen, Sara S; Walsh, Andrew S; Reid, David N; Langdon, Claire

2018-04-18

Many healthcare education commentators suggest that moulage can be used in simulation to enhance scenario realism. However, few studies investigate to what extent using moulage in simulation impacts learners. We undertook a mixed-methods pilot study investigating how moulage influences student immersion and performance in simulation. Fifty undergraduate paramedicine students were randomized into two groups completing a trauma-based scenario with or without patient moulage. Task immersion was determined via a self-report questionnaire (National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index), eye-tracking, and postsimulation interviews. Performance was measured via independent observation of video by two paramedic clinical educators and time-to-action-when students first applied pressure to the primary wound. Eye-tracking suggested that students attended to the thigh wound more often with the inclusion of moulage than without. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index data suggested that the inclusion of moulage heightened students' feeling of being rushed throughout the scenario. This elicited an expedited performance of tasks with moulage present compared with not. Students experienced greater immersion with the inclusion of moulage. However, including moulage enhanced scenario difficulty to the extent that overall clinical performance was negatively affected. However, no differences were found when more heavily weighting items felt to contribute most to the survivability of the patient. Including moulage engendered immersion and a greater sense of urgency and did not sacrifice performance of key life-saving interventions. As a result of undertaking this pilot project, we suggest that a large-scale randomized controlled trial is feasible and should be undertaken before implementing change to curricula.

Can Telemedicine Improve Adherence to Resuscitation Guidelines for Critically Ill Children at Community Hospitals? A Randomized Controlled Trial Using High-Fidelity Simulation.

PubMed

Yang, Chris P; Hunt, Elizabeth A; Shilkofski, Nicole; Dudas, Robert; Egbuta, Chinyere; Schwartz, Jamie M

2017-07-01

Children transferred from community hospitals lacking specialized pediatric care are more seriously ill than those presenting to pediatric centers. Pediatric consultation and adherence to management guidelines improve outcomes. The aims of the study were (1) to assess whether telemedicine consultation in critical situations is feasible and (2) to compare the impact of pediatric critical care medicine (PCCM) consultation via telemedicine versus telephone on community hospital adherence to resuscitation guidelines through a randomized controlled telemedicine trial. In situ, high-fidelity simulation scenarios of critically ill children presenting to a community hospital and progressing to cardiopulmonary arrest were performed. Scenarios were randomized to PCCM consultation via telephone (control) or telemedicine (intervention). Primary outcome measure was proportion of teams who successfully defibrillated in 180 seconds or less from presentation of pulseless ventricular tachycardia. The following 30 scenarios were completed: 15 control and 15 intervention. Only 11 (37%) of 30 teams, defibrillated in 180 seconds or less from presentation of pulseless ventricular tachycardia; control: 6 (40%) of 15 versus intervention: 5 (33%) of 15, P = 0.7. Request for or use of backboard during cardiopulmonary resuscitation occurred in 24 (80%) of 30 scenarios; control: 9 (60%) of 15 versus intervention: 15 (100%) of 15, P = 0.006. Request for or use of stepstool during cardiopulmonary resuscitation occurred in 6 (20%) of 30 scenarios; control: 1 (7%) of 15 versus intervention: 5 (33%) of 15, P = 0.07. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using telemedicine to support acute management of children who present to community hospitals. Neither study arm adhered to current resuscitation guidelines and telemedicine consultation with PCCM experts was not associated with improvement. However, further research on optimizing telemedicine impact on the quality of pediatric care at community hospitals is warranted.

Cow-calf reproductive, genetic, and nutritional management to improve the sustainability of whole beef production systems.

PubMed

White, R R; Brady, M; Capper, J L; McNamara, J P; Johnson, K A

2015-06-01

Optimizing efficiency in the cow-calf sector is an important step toward improving beef sustainability. The objective of the study was to use a model to identify the relative roles of reproductive, genetic, and nutritional management in minimizing beef production systems' environmental impact in an economically viable, socially acceptable manner. An economic and environmental diet optimizer was used to identify ideal nutritional management of beef production systems varying in genetic and reproductive technology use. Eight management scenarios were compared to a least cost baseline: average U.S. production practices (CON), CON with variable nutritional management (NUT), twinning cattle (TWN), early weaning (EW), sire selection by EPD using either on-farm bulls (EPD-B) or AI (EPD-AI), decreasing the calving window (CW), or selecting bulls by EPD and reducing the calving window (EPD-CW). Diets to minimize land use, water use, and/or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were optimized under each scenario. Increases in diet cost attributable to reducing environmental impact were constrained to less than stakeholder willingness to pay for improved efficiency and reduced environmental impact. Baseline land use, water use, and GHG emissions were 188 m, 712 L, and 21.9 kg/kg HCW beef. The NUT scenario, which assessed opportunities to improve sustainability by altering nutritional management alone, resulted in a simultaneous 1.5% reduction in land use, water use, and GHG emissions. The CW scenario improved calf uniformity and simultaneously decreased land use, water use, and GHG emissions by 3.2%. Twinning resulted in a 9.2% reduction in the 3 environmental impact metrics. The EW scenario allowed for an 8.5% reduction in the 3 metrics. The EPD-AI scenario resulted in an 11.1% reduction, which was comparable to the 11.3% reduction achieved by EPD-B in the 3 metrics. Improving genetic selection by using AI or by purchasing on-farm bulls based on their superior EPD demonstrated clear opportunity to improve sustainability. When genetic and reproductive technologies were adopted, up to a 12.4% reduction in environmental impact was achievable. Given the modeling assumptions used in this study, optimizing nutritional management while concurrently improving genetic and reproductive efficiency may be promising avenues to improve productivity and sustainability of U.S. beef systems.

Robustness of assembly supply chain networks by considering risk propagation and cascading failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Liang; Jing, Ke; He, Jie; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-10-01

An assembly supply chain network (ASCN) is composed of manufacturers located in different geographical regions. To analyze the robustness of this ASCN when it suffers from catastrophe disruption events, we construct a cascading failure model of risk propagation. In our model, different disruption scenarios s are considered and the probability equation of all disruption scenarios is developed. Using production capability loss as the robustness index (RI) of an ASCN, we conduct a numerical simulation to assess its robustness. Through simulation, we compare the network robustness at different values of linking intensity and node threshold and find that weak linking intensity or high node threshold increases the robustness of the ASCN. We also compare network robustness levels under different disruption scenarios.

Key conclusions from AVOID Work Stream One

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, Rachel

2010-05-01

AVOID work stream (WS1)one has produced emission scenarios that simulate potential future global emission pathways for greenhouse gases during the 21st century. The study explored the influence of three key features of such pathways: (1) the year in which emissions peak globally, (2) the rate of emission reduction, and (3) the minimum level to which emissions are eventually reduced. It examined the resultant climate change, climate change impacts and economic implications using computer simulations. Avoided impacts, carbon taxes and GDP change increase throughout the 21st century in the models. AVOID-WS1 showed that in the absence of climate policy it is very likely that global mean temperatures would exceed 3 degrees and there are evens chances that the temperature would rise by 4 degrees relative to pre-industrial times. Scenarios that peak emissions in 2016 were more effective at constraining temperatures to below 3 degrees than those that peaked in 2030: one ‘2016' scenario achieved a probability of 45% of avoiding breaching of a 2 degree threshold. Scenarios peaking in 2030 were inconsistent with constraining temperatures to below 2 degrees. Correspondingly, scenarios that peak in 2030 are more effective at avoiding climate impacts than scenarios that peak in 2016, for all sectors that we studied. Hence the date at which emissions peak is more important than the rate of subsequent emissions reduction in determining the avoided impacts. Avoided impacts increase with time, being negligible in the 2030s, significant by the 2050s and large by the 2080s. Finally, the choice of GCM influences the magnitude of the avoided impacts strongly, so that the uncertainties in our estimates of avoided impacts for each scenario are larger than the difference between the scenarios. Our economic analysis is based on models which differ greatly in the assumptions that they make, but generally show that the date at which emissions peak is a stronger driver of induced GDP changes, and, with some exceptions, carbon taxes, than the rate at which emissions are subsequently reduced. In models which assume perfect rationality and foresight and/or assume the economy to be equilibrium with full employment, then mitigation could cause GDP to decrease. In models which do not make these assumptions, mitigation could cause GDP to increase. In either case the effects are small (a few % of GDP lost or gained in 2100) and insignificant when compared with the 600-1200% increase in global GDP forecast between 2000 and 2100 in the SRES A1B reference scenario used in this study. Estimates of carbon taxes required differ widely between models.

Preliminary simulation of chloride transport in the Equus Beds aquifer and simulated effects of well pumping and artificial recharge on groundwater flow and chloride transport near the city of Wichita, Kansas, 1990 through 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klager, Brian J.; Kelly, Brian P.; Ziegler, Andrew C.

2014-01-01

The Equus Beds aquifer in south-central Kansas is a primary water-supply source for the city of Wichita. Water-level declines because of groundwater pumping for municipal and irrigation needs as well as sporadic drought conditions have caused concern about the adequacy of the Equus Beds aquifer as a future water supply for Wichita. In March 2006, the city of Wichita began construction of the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project, a plan to artificially recharge the aquifer with excess water from the Little Arkansas River. Artificial recharge will raise groundwater levels, increase storage volume in the aquifer, and deter or slow down a plume of chloride brine approaching the Wichita well field from the Burrton, Kansas area caused by oil production activities in the 1930s. Another source of high chloride water to the aquifer is the Arkansas River. This study was prepared in cooperation with the city of Wichita as part of the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project. Chloride transport in the Equus Beds aquifer was simulated between the Arkansas and Little Arkansas Rivers near the Wichita well field. Chloride transport was simulated for the Equus Beds aquifer using SEAWAT, a computer program that combines the groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2000 and the solute-transport model MT3DMS. The chloride-transport model was used to simulate the period from 1990 through 2008 and the effects of five well pumping scenarios and one artificial recharge scenario. The chloride distribution in the aquifer for the beginning of 1990 was interpolated from groundwater samples from around that time, and the chloride concentrations in rivers for the study period were interpolated from surface water samples. Five well-pumping scenarios and one artificial-recharge scenario were assessed for their effects on simulated chloride transport and water levels in and around the Wichita well field. The scenarios were: (1) existing 1990 through 2008 pumping conditions, to serve as a baseline scenario for comparison with the hypothetical scenarios; (2) no pumping in the model area, to demonstrate the chloride movement without the influence of well pumping; (3) double municipal pumping from the Wichita well field with existing irrigation pumping; (4) existing municipal pumping with no irrigation pumping in the model area; (5) double municipal pumping in the Wichita well field and no irrigation pumping in the model area; and (6) increasing artificial recharge to the Phase 1 Artificial Storage and Recovery project sites by 2,300 acre-feet per year. The effects of the hypothetical pumping and artificial recharge scenarios on simulated chloride transport were measured by comparing the rate of movement of the 250-milligrams-per-liter-chloride front for each hypothetical scenario with the baseline scenario at the Arkansas River area near the southern part of the Wichita well field and the Burrton plume area. The scenarios that increased the rate of movement the most compared to the baseline scenario of existing pumping between the Arkansas River and the southern boundary of the well field were those that doubled the city of Wichita’s pumping from the well field (scenarios 3 and 5), increasing the rate of movement by 50 to 150 feet per year, with the highest rate increases in the shallow layer and the lowest rate increases in the deepest layer. The no pumping and no irrigation pumping scenarios (2 and 4) slowed the rate of movement in this area by 150 to 210 feet per year and 40 to 70 feet per year, respectively. In the double Wichita pumping scenario (3), the rate of movement in the shallow layer of the Burrton area decreased by about 50 feet per year. Simulated chloride rate of movement in the deeper layers of the Burrton area was decreased in the no pumping and no irrigation scenarios (2 and 4) by 80 to 120 feet per year and 50 feet per year, respectively, and increased in the scenarios that double Wichita’s pumping (3 and 5) from the well field by zero to 130 feet per year, with the largest increases in the deepest layer. In the increased Phase 1 artificial recharge scenario (6), the rate of chloride movement in the Burrton area increased in the shallow layer by about 30 feet per year, and decreased in the middle and deepest layer by about 10 and 60 feet per year, respectively. Comparisons of the rate of movement of the simulated 250-milligrams-per-liter-chloride front in the hypothetical scenarios to the baseline scenario indicated that, in general, increases to pumping in the well field area increased the rate of simulated chloride movement toward the well field area by as much as 150 feet per year. Reductions in pumping slowed the advance of chloride toward the well field by as much as 210 feet per year, although reductions did not stop the movement of chloride toward the well field, including when pumping rates were eliminated. If pumping is completely discontinued, the rate of chloride movement is about 500 to 600 feet per year in the area between the Arkansas River and the southern part of the Wichita well field, and 70 to 500 feet per year in the area near Burrton with the highest rate of movement in the shallow aquifer layer. The averages of simulated water-levels in index monitoring wells in the Wichita well field at the end of 2008 were calculated for each scenario. Compared to the baseline scenario, the average simulated water level was 5.05 feet higher for the no pumping scenario, 4.72 feet lower for the double Wichita pumping with existing irrigation scenario, 2.49 feet higher for the no irrigation pumping with existing Wichita pumping scenario, 1.53 feet lower for the double Wichita pumping with no irrigation scenario, and 0.48 feet higher for the increased Phase 1 artificial recharge scenario. The groundwater flow was simulated with a preexisting groundwater-flow model, which was not altered to calibrate the solute-transport model to observed chloride-concentration data. Therefore, some areas in the model had poor fit between simulated chloride concentrations and observed chloride concentrations, including the area between Arkansas River and the southern part of the Wichita well field, and the Hollow-Nikkel area about 6 miles north of Burrton. Compared to the interpreted location of the 250-milligrams per liter-chloride front based on data collected in 2011, in the Arkansas River area the simulated 250-milligrams per liter-chloride front moved from the river toward the well field about twice the rate of the actual 250-milligrams per liter-chloride front in the shallow layer and about four times the rate of the actual 250-milligrams per liter-chloride front in the deep layer. Future groundwater-flow and chloride-transport modeling efforts may achieve better agreement between observed and simulated chloride concentrations in these areas by taking the chloride-transport model fit into account when adjusting parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, riverbed conductance, and effective porosity during calibration. Results of the hypothetical scenarios simulated indicate that the Burrton chloride plume will continue moving toward the well field regardless of pumping in the area and that one alternative may be to increase pumping from within the plume area to reverse the groundwater-flow gradients and remove the plume. Additionally, the results of modeling these scenarios indicate that eastward movement of the Burrton plume could be slowed by the additional artificial recharge at the Phase 1 sites and that decreasing pumping along the Arkansas River or increasing water levels could retard the movement of chloride and may prevent further encroachment into the southern part of the well field area.

Land management strategies for improving water quality in biomass production under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Miae; Wu, May

2017-03-01

The Corn Belt states are the largest corn-production areas in the United States because of their fertile land and ideal climate. This attribute is particularly important as the region also plays a key role in the production of bioenergy feedstock. This study focuses on potential change in streamflow, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus due to climate change and land management practices in the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) watershed, Iowa. The watershed is covered primarily with annual crops (corn and soybeans). With cropland conversion to switchgrass, stover harvest, and implementation of best management practices (BMPs) (such as establishing riparian buffers and applying cover crops), significant reductions in nutrients were observed in the SFIR watershed under historical climate and future climate scenarios. Under a historical climate scenario, suspended sediment (SS), total nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) at the outlet point of the SFIR watershed could decrease by up to 56.7%, 32.0%, and 16.5%, respectively, compared with current land use when a portion of the cropland is converted to switchgrass and a cover crop is in place. Climate change could cause increases of 9.7% in SS, 4.1% in N, and 7.2% in P compared to current land use. Under future climate scenarios, nutrients including SS, N, and P were reduced through land management and practices and BMPs by up to 54.0% (SS), 30.4% (N), and 7.1% (P). Water footprint analysis further revealed changes in green water that are highly dependent on land management scenarios. The study highlights the versatile approaches in landscape management that are available to address climate change adaptation and acknowledged the complex nature of different perspectives in water sustainability. Further study involving implementing landscape design and management by using long-term monitoring data from field to watershed is necessary to verify the findings and move toward watershed-specific regional programs for climate adaptation.

Health Impact Modelling of Active Travel Visions for England and Wales Using an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM)

PubMed Central

Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott

2013-01-01

Background Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Methods Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. Results This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Conclusions Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research. PMID:23326315

Health impact modelling of active travel visions for England and Wales using an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM).

PubMed

Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott

2013-01-01

Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research.

An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

How early can the seeding dates of spring wheat be under current and future climate in Saskatchewan, Canada?

PubMed

He, Yong; Wang, Hong; Qian, Budong; McConkey, Brian; DePauw, Ron

2012-01-01

Shorter growing season and water stress near wheat maturity are the main factors that presumably limit the yield potential of spring wheat due to late seeding in Saskatchewan, Canada. Advancing seeding dates can be a strategy to help producers mitigate the impact of climate change on spring wheat. It is unknown, however, how early farmers can seed while minimizing the risk of spring frost damage and the soil and machinery constraints. This paper explores early seeding dates of spring wheat on the Canadian Prairies under current and projected future climate. To achieve this, (i) weather records from 1961 to 1990 were gathered at three sites with different soil and climate conditions in Saskatchewan, Canada; (ii) four climate databases that included a baseline (treated as historic weather climate during the period of 1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios (2040-2069) developed by the Canadian global climate model (GCM) with the forcing of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1); (iii) seeding dates of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under baseline and projected future climate were predicted. Compared with the historical record of seeding dates, the predicted seeding dates were advanced under baseline climate for all sites using our seeding date model. Driven by the predicted temperature increase of the scenarios compared with baseline climate, all climate change scenarios projected significantly earlier seeding dates than those currently used. Compared to the baseline conditions, there is no reduction in grain yield because precipitation increases during sensitive growth stages of wheat, suggesting that there is potential to shift seeding to an earlier date. The average advancement of seeding dates varied among sites and chosen scenarios. The Swift Current (south-west) site has the highest potential for earlier seeding (7 to 11 days) whereas such advancement was small in the Melfort (north-east, 2 to 4 days) region. The extent of projected climate change in Saskatchewan indicates that growers in this region have the potential of earlier seeding. The results obtained in this study may be used for adaptation assessments of seeding dates under possible climate change to mitigate the impact of potential warming.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.

2013-01-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are comparedmore » to a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline underlying socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy while increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food, energy, and land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.« less

A Comparative Study of Anomaly Detection Techniques for Smart City Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Garcia-Font, Victor; Garrigues, Carles; Rifà-Pous, Helena

2016-06-13

In many countries around the world, smart cities are becoming a reality. These cities contribute to improving citizens' quality of life by providing services that are normally based on data extracted from wireless sensor networks (WSN) and other elements of the Internet of Things. Additionally, public administration uses these smart city data to increase its efficiency, to reduce costs and to provide additional services. However, the information received at smart city data centers is not always accurate, because WSNs are sometimes prone to error and are exposed to physical and computer attacks. In this article, we use real data from the smart city of Barcelona to simulate WSNs and implement typical attacks. Then, we compare frequently used anomaly detection techniques to disclose these attacks. We evaluate the algorithms under different requirements on the available network status information. As a result of this study, we conclude that one-class Support Vector Machines is the most appropriate technique. We achieve a true positive rate at least 56% higher than the rates achieved with the other compared techniques in a scenario with a maximum false positive rate of 5% and a 26% higher in a scenario with a false positive rate of 15%.

A Comparative Study of Anomaly Detection Techniques for Smart City Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Garcia-Font, Victor; Garrigues, Carles; Rifà-Pous, Helena

2016-01-01

In many countries around the world, smart cities are becoming a reality. These cities contribute to improving citizens’ quality of life by providing services that are normally based on data extracted from wireless sensor networks (WSN) and other elements of the Internet of Things. Additionally, public administration uses these smart city data to increase its efficiency, to reduce costs and to provide additional services. However, the information received at smart city data centers is not always accurate, because WSNs are sometimes prone to error and are exposed to physical and computer attacks. In this article, we use real data from the smart city of Barcelona to simulate WSNs and implement typical attacks. Then, we compare frequently used anomaly detection techniques to disclose these attacks. We evaluate the algorithms under different requirements on the available network status information. As a result of this study, we conclude that one-class Support Vector Machines is the most appropriate technique. We achieve a true positive rate at least 56% higher than the rates achieved with the other compared techniques in a scenario with a maximum false positive rate of 5% and a 26% higher in a scenario with a false positive rate of 15%. PMID:27304957

Teaching End-of-Life Care Using Interprofessional Simulation.

PubMed

Gannon, Jane; Motycka, Carol; Egelund, Eric; Kraemer, Dale F; Smith, W Thomas; Solomon, Kathleen

2017-04-01

Competency in end-of-life (EOL) care is a growing expectation for health professions students. This study assessed the impact of four EOL care scenarios, using high-fidelity simulation, on the perceived learning needs and attitudes of pharmacy and nursing students. On three campuses, pharmacy students (N = 158) were exposed to standard paper EOL case scenarios, while a fourth campus exposed eight graduate nursing and 37 graduate pharmacy students to simulated versions of the same cases. The paper-based groups produced similar pre-post changes on the End of Life Professional Caregiver Survey. Results were pooled and compared with the simulation-only group, revealing significantly higher changes in pre-post scores for the simulation group. Students participating in the simulation group showed some significant differences in attitudes toward EOL care, compared with students in the classroom setting. [J Nurs Educ. 2017;56(4):205-210.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

How is the weather? Forecasting inpatient glycemic control

PubMed Central

Saulnier, George E; Castro, Janna C; Cook, Curtiss B; Thompson, Bithika M

2017-01-01

Aim: Apply methods of damped trend analysis to forecast inpatient glycemic control. Method: Observed and calculated point-of-care blood glucose data trends were determined over 62 weeks. Mean absolute percent error was used to calculate differences between observed and forecasted values. Comparisons were drawn between model results and linear regression forecasting. Results: The forecasted mean glucose trends observed during the first 24 and 48 weeks of projections compared favorably to the results provided by linear regression forecasting. However, in some scenarios, the damped trend method changed inferences compared with linear regression. In all scenarios, mean absolute percent error values remained below the 10% accepted by demand industries. Conclusion: Results indicate that forecasting methods historically applied within demand industries can project future inpatient glycemic control. Additional study is needed to determine if forecasting is useful in the analyses of other glucometric parameters and, if so, how to apply the techniques to quality improvement. PMID:29134125

Future Heat Waves In Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.

2017-12-01

I will review recent work from my group on the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heat waves in Asia. Our studies covered Southwest Asia, South Asia, East China, and the Maritime continent. In any of these regions, the risk associated with climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that the wet-bulb temperature is a useful variable to consider in describing the natural hazard from heat waves since it can be easily compared to the natural threshold that defines the upper limit on human survivability. Based on an ensemble of high resolution climate change simulations, we project extremes of wet-bulb temperature conditions in each of these four regions of Asia. We consider the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a moderate mitigation scenario. The results from these regions will be compared and lessons learned summarized.

Integrated versus stand-alone second generation ethanol production from sugarcane bagasse and trash.

PubMed

Dias, Marina O S; Junqueira, Tassia L; Cavalett, Otávio; Cunha, Marcelo P; Jesus, Charles D F; Rossell, Carlos E V; Maciel Filho, Rubens; Bonomi, Antonio

2012-01-01

Ethanol production from lignocellulosic materials is often conceived considering independent, stand-alone production plants; in the Brazilian scenario, where part of the potential feedstock (sugarcane bagasse) for second generation ethanol production is already available at conventional first generation production plants, an integrated first and second generation production process seems to be the most obvious option. In this study stand-alone second generation ethanol production from surplus sugarcane bagasse and trash is compared with conventional first generation ethanol production from sugarcane and with integrated first and second generation; simulations were developed to represent the different technological scenarios, which provided data for economic and environmental analysis. Results show that the integrated first and second generation ethanol production process from sugarcane leads to better economic results when compared with the stand-alone plant, especially when advanced hydrolysis technologies and pentoses fermentation are included. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Maryam; Bekri, Mahmoud

2017-04-01

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO 2 emission trends for Iran over 2000-2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO 2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO 2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO 2 emission outlines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

PubMed

Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-08-16

Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a ) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b ) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c ) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

Real-time video communication improves provider performance in a simulated neonatal resuscitation.

PubMed

Fang, Jennifer L; Carey, William A; Lang, Tara R; Lohse, Christine M; Colby, Christopher E

2014-11-01

To determine if a real-time audiovisual link with a neonatologist, termed video-assisted resuscitation or VAR, improves provider performance during a simulated neonatal resuscitation scenario. Using high-fidelity simulation, 46 study participants were presented with a neonatal resuscitation scenario. The control group performed independently, while the intervention group utilized VAR. Time to effective ventilation was compared using Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Providers' use of the corrective steps for ineffective ventilation per the NRP algorithm was compared using Cochran-Armitage trend tests. The time needed to establish effective ventilation was significantly reduced in the intervention group when compared to the control group (mean time 2 min 42 s versus 4 min 11 s, p<0.001). In the setting of ineffective ventilation, only 35% of control subjects used three or more of the first five corrective steps and none of them used all five steps. Providers in the control group most frequently neglected to open the mouth and increase positive pressure. In contrast, all of those in the intervention group used all of the first five corrective steps, p<0.001. All participants in the control group decided to intubate the infant to establish effective ventilation, compared to none in the intervention group, p<0.001. Using VAR during a simulated neonatal resuscitation scenario significantly reduces the time to establish effective ventilation and improves provider adherence to NRP guidelines. This technology may be a means for regional centers to support local providers during a neonatal emergency to improve patient safety and improve neonatal outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of the impact of managed aquifer recharge on the groundwater system in Hanoi, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, Jana; Via Rico, Daniela A.; Stefan, Catalin; Nga, Tran Thi Viet

2018-05-01

A transient numerical groundwater flow model using MODFLOW-NWT was set up and calibrated for Hanoi city, Vietnam, to understand the local groundwater flow system and to suggest solutions for sustainable water resource management. Urban development in Hanoi has caused a severe decline of groundwater levels. The present study evaluates the actual situation and investigates the suitability of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to stop further depletion of groundwater resources. The results suggest that groundwater is being overexploited, as vast cones of depression exist in parts of the study area. Suitable locations to implement two MAR techniques—riverbank filtration and injection wells—were identified using multi-criteria decision analysis based on geographic information system (GIS). Three predictive scenarios were simulated. The relocation of pumping wells towards the Red River to induce riverbank filtration (first scenario) demonstrates that groundwater levels can be increased, especially in the depression cones. Groundwater levels can also be improved locally by the infiltration of surplus water into the upper aquifer (Holocene) via injection wells during the rainy season (second scenario), but this is not effective to raise the water table in the depression cones. Compared to the first scenario, the combination of riverbank filtration and injection wells (third scenario) shows a slightly raised overall water table. Groundwater flow modeling suggests that local overexploitation can be stopped by a smart relocation of wells from the main depression cones and the expansion of riverbank filtration. This could also avoid further land subsidence while the city's water demand is met.

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study.

PubMed

Rasella, Davide; Basu, Sanjay; Hone, Thomas; Paes-Sousa, Romulo; Ocké-Reis, Carlos Octávio; Millett, Christopher

2018-05-01

Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals. We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations. The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study

PubMed Central

Paes-Sousa, Romulo; Ocké-Reis, Carlos Octávio; Millett, Christopher

2018-01-01

Background Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country’s GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)—one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world—and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF—compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained—may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals. Methods and findings We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017–2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil’s vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%–10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity—a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207–29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%–41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%–39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%–12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%–13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017–2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%–21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations. Conclusions The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection—threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality. PMID:29787574

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to drive urban expansion based on numerous policies visions to mitigate future flood risk along the Meuse River. In particular, we assess the impacts on future flood risk of the prohibition of urban development in high and/or medium flood hazard zones. Acknowledgements The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Future law enforcement officers and social workers: perceptions of domestic violence.

PubMed

McMullan, Elizabeth C; Carlan, Philip E; Nored, Lisa S

2010-08-01

This study compares perceptions of domestic violence for college students planning to work in law enforcement with students aspiring to careers in social work and non-law-enforcement criminal justice (N = 491). The study involves students attending four public universities across one Southern state who completed a survey (spring of 2006) measuring whether various scenarios were (1) related to domestic violence, and (2) worthy of being reported to law enforcement. Findings indicate that all student groups (law enforcement, non-law-enforcement criminal justice, and social work) tended to identify the various scenarios as domestic violence (and worthy of being reported) regardless of the person's sexual orientation, violence severity, and offender's or victim's gender. However, law enforcement students are less sensitive to domestic violence when compared with social work and non-law enforcement criminal justice students. Findings reveal that (1) graduate students, (2) female students, and (3) White students (compared with African American students in general) attending majority White universities were more likely to identify domestic violence and its worthiness of being reported.The data in this study indicate that criminal justice programs produce graduates who are reasonably sensitive toward the importance of appropriate domestic violence response but could still improve using the techniques employed within social work programs.

Life cycle design metrics for energy generation technologies: Method, data, and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Joyce; Lee, Seung-Jin; Elter, John; Boussu, Jeff; Boman, Sarah

A method to assist in the rapid preparation of Life Cycle Assessments of emerging energy generation technologies is presented and applied to distributed proton exchange membrane fuel cell systems. The method develops life cycle environmental design metrics and allows variations in hardware materials, transportation scenarios, assembly energy use, operating performance and consumables, and fuels and fuel production scenarios to be modeled and comparisons to competing systems to be made. Data and results are based on publicly available U.S. Life Cycle Assessment data sources and are formulated to allow the environmental impact weighting scheme to be specified. A case study evaluates improvements in efficiency and in materials recycling and compares distributed proton exchange membrane fuel cell systems to other distributed generation options. The results reveal the importance of sensitivity analysis and system efficiency in interpreting case studies.

Perceptions of Intercultural Social Challenges: Towards Culturally Competent Counselling Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mak, Anita S.; Shaw, Tamara L.

2015-01-01

Increasing ethnic and cultural diversity worldwide and especially in Australia requires that psychologists and counsellors cultivate the know-how to interact and work effectively with clients and stakeholders in cross-cultural contexts. This study aimed to identify and compare themes regarding challenging intercultural social scenarios experienced…

Renewable Electricity Futures Study | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use. The direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy scenarios. Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable technologies is the most impactful lever for

EPA Science Matters Newsletter: Good for the Climate and Your Health (Published April 2014)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Read about the findings of a study published in Nature Climate Change that looked at the projected global air quality in two scenarios: one with reduced carbon dioxide in the air, and one with increase of the gas, and compared the results.

Lunar Surface Mission Operations Scenario and Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, Larissa S.; Torney, Susan E.; Rask, John Doug; Bleisath, Scott A.

2006-01-01

Planetary surface operations have been studied since the last visit of humans to the Moon, including conducting analog missions. Mission Operations lessons from these activities are summarized. Characteristics of forecasted surface operations are compared to current human mission operations approaches. Considerations for future designs of mission operations are assessed.

Concerns With Entertainment-Education: Zombie Pandemic Preparedness and the Unanticipated Promotion of a Weapons Culture.

PubMed

Houghton, Frank; Toms, Jeremy; Meratnia, Ghazal; Loney, Krista; Hopkins, Edward; Del Monte, Katie

2017-08-01

Entertainment-education has proved to be an engaging medium through which to explore health and social issues in populations. Given the popularity of the zombie theme in popular culture it is no surprise therefore that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention adopted this theme in an effort to engage youth and young adults in emergency preparedness. However, an earlier observational study involving elementary school children based on this premise raised concerns that it may have unexpectedly promoted a focus on firearms. A randomized control study involving 89 children (average age 10.4 years) was therefore conducted to explore this possibility in more depth. One group was exposed to a natural disaster scenario, while the other group was exposed to the zombie pandemic theme. When subsequently asked to prepare emergency kit lists, participants in the zombie themed scenario were 15.84 times as likely to include firearms in their lists compared with participants who were exposed to the natural disaster scenario. Although the sample size in this study was small, it is suggested that future interventions using entertainment-education need to explore all aspects of the messages implicit in their chosen medium, rather than just focusing on one element.

Cost-effectiveness of computed tomography colonography in colorectal cancer screening: a systematic review.

PubMed

Hanly, Paul; Skally, Mairead; Fenlon, Helen; Sharp, Linda

2012-10-01

The European Code Against Cancer recommends individuals aged ≥ 50 should participate in colorectal cancer screening. CT-colonography (CTC) is one of several screening tests available. We systematically reviewed evidence on, and identified key factors influencing, cost-effectiveness of CTC screening. PubMed, Medline, and the Cochrane library were searched for cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analyses of CTC-based screening, published in English, January 1999 to July 2010. Data was abstracted on setting, model type and horizon, screening scenario(s), comparator(s), participants, uptake, CTC performance and cost, effectiveness, ICERs, and whether extra-colonic findings and medical complications were considered. Sixteen studies were identified from the United States (n = 11), Canada (n = 2), and France, Italy, and the United Kingdom (1 each). Markov state-transition (n = 14) or microsimulation (n = 2) models were used. Eleven considered direct medical costs only; five included indirect costs. Fourteen compared CTC with no screening; fourteen compared CTC with colonoscopy-based screening; fewer compared CTC with sigmoidoscopy (8) or fecal tests (4). Outcomes assessed were life-years gained/saved (13), QALYs (2), or both (1). Three considered extra-colonic findings; seven considered complications. CTC appeared cost-effective versus no screening and, in general, flexible sigmoidoscopy and fecal occult blood testing. Results were mixed comparing CTC to colonoscopy. Parameters most influencing cost-effectiveness included: CTC costs, screening uptake, threshold for polyp referral, and extra-colonic findings. Evidence on cost-effectiveness of CTC screening is heterogeneous, due largely to between-study differences in comparators and parameter values. Future studies should: compare CTC with currently favored tests, especially fecal immunochemical tests; consider extra-colonic findings; and conduct comprehensive sensitivity analyses.

Cost-comparison of different management policies for tuberculosis patients in Italy. AIPO TB Study Group.

PubMed Central

Migliori, G. B.; Ambrosetti, M.; Besozzi, G.; Farris, B.; Nutini, S.; Saini, L.; Casali, L.; Nardini, S.; Bugiani, M.; Neri, M.; Raviglione, M. C.

1999-01-01

Although in developing countries the treatment of tuberculosis (TB) cases is among the most cost-effective health interventions, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of TB control in low-prevalence countries. The aim of the present study was to carry out an economic analysis in Italy that takes into account both the perspective of the resource-allocating authority (i.e. the Ministry of Health) and the broader social perspective, including a cost description based on current outcomes applied to a representative sample of TB patients nationwide (admission and directly observed treatment (DOT) during the initial intensive phase of treatment); a cost-comparison analysis of two alternative programmes: current policy based on available data (scenario 1) and an hypothetical policy oriented more towards outpatient care (scenario 2) (both scenarios included the option of including or not including DOT outside hospital admission, and incentives) were compared in terms of cost per case treated successfully. Indirect costs (such as loss of productivity) were included in considerations of the broader social perspective. The study was designed as a prospective monitoring activity based on the supervised collection of forms from a representative sample of Italian TB units. Individual data were collected and analysed to obtain a complete economic profile of the patients enrolled and to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention. A separate analysis was done for each scenario to determine the end-point at different levels of cure rate (50-90%). The mean length of treatment was 6.6 months (i.e. patients hospitalized during the intensive phase; length of stay was significantly higher in smear-positive patients and in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seropositive patients). Roughly six direct smear and culture examinations were performed during hospital admission and three during ambulatory treatment. The cost of a single bed day was US$186.90, whereas that of a single outpatient visit ranged, according to the different options, from US$2.50 to US$11. Scenario 2 was consistently less costly than scenario 1. The cost per case cured for smear-positive cases was US$16,703 in scenario 1 and US$5946 in scenario 2. The difference in cost between the cheapest option (no DOT) and the more expensive option (DOT, additional staff, incentives) ranged from US$1407 (scenario 1, smear-negative and extrapulmonary cases) to US$1814 (scenario 2, smear-positive cases). The additional cost to society including indirect costs ranged from US$1800 to US$4200. The possible savings at the national level were in the order of US$50 million per year. In conclusion, cost-comparison analysis showed that a relatively minor change in policy can result in significant savings and that the adoption of DOT will represent a relatively modest economic burden, although the real gain in effectiveness resulting from DOT in Italy requires further evaluation. PMID:10427931

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment.

PubMed

Retèl, Valesca P; Joore, Manuela A; Linn, Sabine C; Rutgers, Emiel J T; van Harten, Wim H

2012-08-16

Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers. PMID:22894140

Method for the technical, financial, economic and environmental pre-feasibility study of geothermal power plants by RETScreen - Ecuador's case study.

PubMed

Moya, Diego; Paredes, Juan; Kaparaju, Prasad

2018-01-01

RETScreen presents a proven focused methodology on pre-feasibility studies. Although this tool has been used to carry out a number of pre-feasibility studies of solar, wind, and hydropower projects; that is not the case for geothermal developments. This method paper proposes a systematic methodology to cover all the necessary inputs of the RETScreen-International Geothermal Project Model. As case study, geothermal power plant developments in the Ecuadorian context were analysed by RETScreen-International Geothermal Project Model. Three different scenarios were considered for analyses. Scenario I and II considered incentives of 132.1 USD/MWh for electricity generation and grants of 3 million USD. Scenario III considered the geothermal project with an electricity export price of 49.3 USD/MWh. Scenario III was further divided into IIIA and IIIB case studies. Scenario IIIA considered a 3 million USD grant while Scenario IIIB considered an income of 8.9 USD/MWh for selling heat in direct applications. Modelling results showed that binary power cycle was the most suitable geothermal technology to produce electricity along with aquaculture and greenhouse heating for direct use applications in all scenarios. Financial analyses showed that the debt payment would be 5.36 million USD/year under in Scenario I and III. The correspindig values for Scenario II was 7.06 million USD/year. Net Present Value was positive for all studied scenarios except for Scenario IIIA. Overall, Scenario II was identified as the most feasible project due to positive NPV with short payback period. Scenario IIIB could become financially attractive by selling heat for direct applications. The total initial investment for a 22 MW geothermal power plant was 114.3 million USD (at 2017 costs). Economic analysis showed an annual savings of 24.3 million USD by avoiding fossil fuel electricity generation. More than 184,000 tCO 2 eq. could be avoided annually.

Simulated effects of ground-water management scenarios on the Santa Fe group aquifer system, Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico, 2001-40

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bexfield, Laura M.; McAda, Douglas P.

2003-01-01

Future conditions in the Santa Fe Group aquifer system through 2040 were simulated using the most recent revision of the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater- flow model for the Middle Rio Grande Basin. Three simulations were performed to investigate the likely effects of different scenarios of future groundwater pumping by the City of Albuquerque on the ground-water system. For simulation I, pumping was held constant at known year-2000 rates. For simulation II, pumping was increased to simulate the use of pumping to meet all projected city water demand through 2040. For simulation III, pumpingwas reduced in accordance with a plan by the City of Albuquerque to use surfacewater to meet most of the projectedwater demand. The simulations indicate that for each of the three pumping scenarios, substantial additional watertable declines would occur in some areas of the basin through 2040. However, the reduced pumping scenario of simulation III also results in water-table rise over a broad area of the city. All three scenarios indicate that the contributions of aquifer storage and river leakage to the ground-water system would change between 2000 and 2040. Comparisons among the results for simulations I, II, and III indicate that the various pumping scenarios have substantially different effects on water-level declines in the Albuquerque area and on the contribution of each water-budget component to the total budget for the ground-water system. Between 2000 and 2040, water-level declines for continued pumping at year-2000 rates are as much as 120 feet greater than for reduced pumping; water-level declines for increased pumping to meet all projected city demand are as much as 160 feet greater. Over the same time period, reduced pumping results in retention in aquifer storage of about 1,536,000 acre-feet of ground water as compared with continued pumping at year- 2000 rates and of about 2,257,000 acre-feet as compared with increased pumping. The quantity of water retained in the Rio Grande as a result of reduced pumping and the associated decrease in induced recharge from the river is about 731,000 acre-feet as compared with continued pumping at year-2000 rates and about 872,000 acre-feet as compared with increased pumping. Reduced pumping results in slight increases in the quantity of water lost from the groundwater system to evapotranspiration and agriculturaldrain flow compared with the other pumping scenarios.

Directed Energy Technology Working Group Report (IDA/OSD R&M (Institute for Defense Analyses/Office of the Secretary of Defense Reliability and Maintainability) Study).

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

Missile (SLBM) Defense Scenario ............................................ B-1 C Space-Based Anti-Ballistic Missile ( ABM ) Defense Scenario...Ballistic Missile (SLBM) Defense Scenario, and at Strategic Space-Based Anti-Ballistic Missile ( ABM ) Defense Scenario. These case studies are provided...of flight. 3.5.3 Spaced-Based ABM Defense Scenario In this scenario, an orbiting battle station is operating as an element of GBMD System, and it is

Carbon footprint and energy use of food waste management options for fresh fruit and vegetables from supermarkets.

PubMed

Eriksson, Mattias; Spångberg, Johanna

2017-02-01

Food waste is a problem with economic, environmental and social implications, making it both important and complex. Previous studies have addressed food waste management options at the less prioritised end of the waste hierarchy, but information on more prioritised levels is also needed when selecting the best available waste management options. Investigating the global warming potential and primary energy use of different waste management options offers a limited perspective, but is still important for validating impacts from the waste hierarchy in a local context. This study compared the effect on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use of different food waste management scenarios in the city of Växjö, Sweden. A life cycle assessment was performed for four waste management scenarios (incineration, anaerobic digestion, conversion and donation), using five food products (bananas, tomatoes, apples, oranges and sweet peppers) from the fresh fruit and vegetables department in two supermarkets as examples when treated as individual waste streams. For all five waste streams, the established waste hierarchy was a useful tool for prioritising the various options, since the re-use options (conversion and donation) reduced the greenhouse gas emissions and the primary energy use to a significantly higher degree than the energy recovery options (incineration and anaerobic digestion). The substitution of other products and services had a major impact on the results in all scenarios. Re-use scenarios where food was replaced therefore had much higher potential to reduce environmental impact than the energy recovery scenarios where fossil fuel was replaced. This is due to the high level of resources needed to produce food compared with production of fossil fuels, but also to fresh fruit and vegetables having a high water content, making them inefficient as energy carriers. Waste valorisation measures should therefore focus on directing each type of food to the waste management system that can substitute the most resource-demanding products or services, even when the whole waste flow cannot be treated with the same method. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continuous thermal hydrolysis and anaerobic digestion of sludge. Energy integration study.

PubMed

Pérez-Elvira, S I; Fdz-Polanco, F

2012-01-01

Experimental data obtained from the operation in a pilot plant are used to perform mass and energy balances to a global process combining units of thermal hydrolysis (TH) of secondary sludge, anaerobic digestion (AD) of hydrolysed secondary sludge together with fresh primary sludge, and cogeneration from biogas by using a gas engine in which the biogas produces electricity and heat from the exhaust gases. Three scenarios were compared, corresponding to the three digesters operated: C (conventional AD, 17 days residence time), B (combined TH + AD, same time), and A (TH + AD at half residence time). The biogas production of digesters B and A was 33 and 24% better, respectively when compared with C. In the case of the combined TH + AD process (scenarios A and B), the key factors in the energy balance were the recovery of heat from hot streams, and the concentration of sludge. The results of the balances showed that for 8% DS concentration of the secondary sludge tested in the pilot plant, the process can be energetically self-sufficient, but a fraction of the biogas must by-pass the gas engine to be directly burned. From an economic point of view, scenario B is more profitable in terms of green energy and higher waste removal, while scenario A reduces the digester volume required by a half. Considering a population of 100,000 inhabitants, the economic benefit is 87,600 €/yr for scenario A and 132,373 €/yr for B. This value can be increased to 223,867 €/yr by increasing the sludge concentration of the feeding to the TH unit to a minimum value that allows use of all the biogas to produce green energy. This concentration is 13% DS, which is still possible from a practical point of view. Additional benefits gained with the combined TH + AD process are the enhancement of the digesters rheology and the possibility of getting Class A biosolids. The integration study presented here set the basis for the scale-up to a demonstration plant.

Potential of promotion of alleles by genome editing to improve quantitative traits in livestock breeding programs.

PubMed

Jenko, Janez; Gorjanc, Gregor; Cleveland, Matthew A; Varshney, Rajeev K; Whitelaw, C Bruce A; Woolliams, John A; Hickey, John M

2015-07-02

Genome editing (GE) is a method that enables specific nucleotides in the genome of an individual to be changed. To date, use of GE in livestock has focussed on simple traits that are controlled by a few quantitative trait nucleotides (QTN) with large effects. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of GE to improve quantitative traits that are controlled by many QTN, referred to here as promotion of alleles by genome editing (PAGE). Multiple scenarios were simulated to test alternative PAGE strategies for a quantitative trait. They differed in (i) the number of edits per sire (0 to 100), (ii) the number of edits per generation (0 to 500), and (iii) the extent of use of PAGE (i.e. editing all sires or only a proportion of them). The base line scenario involved selecting individuals on true breeding values (i.e., genomic selection only (GS only)-genomic selection with perfect accuracy) for several generations. Alternative scenarios complemented this base line scenario with PAGE (GS + PAGE). The effect of different PAGE strategies was quantified by comparing response to selection, changes in allele frequencies, the number of distinct QTN edited, the sum of absolute effects of the edited QTN per generation, and inbreeding. Response to selection after 20 generations was between 1.08 and 4.12 times higher with GS + PAGE than with GS only. Increases in response to selection were larger with more edits per sire and more sires edited. When the total resources for PAGE were limited, editing a few sires for many QTN resulted in greater response to selection and inbreeding compared to editing many sires for a few QTN. Between the scenarios GS only and GS + PAGE, there was little difference in the average change in QTN allele frequencies, but there was a major difference for the QTN with the largest effects. The sum of the effects of the edited QTN decreased across generations. This study showed that PAGE has great potential for application in livestock breeding programs, but inbreeding needs to be managed.

Effect of pesticide fate parameters and their uncertainty on the selection of 'worst-case' scenarios of pesticide leaching to groundwater.

PubMed

Vanderborght, Jan; Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos J T I; Vereecken, Harry

2011-03-01

For the registration of pesticides in the European Union, model simulations for worst-case scenarios are used to demonstrate that leaching concentrations to groundwater do not exceed a critical threshold. A worst-case scenario is a combination of soil and climate properties for which predicted leaching concentrations are higher than a certain percentile of the spatial concentration distribution within a region. The derivation of scenarios is complicated by uncertainty about soil and pesticide fate parameters. As the ranking of climate and soil property combinations according to predicted leaching concentrations is different for different pesticides, the worst-case scenario for one pesticide may misrepresent the worst case for another pesticide, which leads to 'scenario uncertainty'. Pesticide fate parameter uncertainty led to higher concentrations in the higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions, especially for distributions in smaller and more homogeneous regions. The effect of pesticide fate parameter uncertainty on the spatial concentration distribution was small when compared with the uncertainty of local concentration predictions and with the scenario uncertainty. Uncertainty in pesticide fate parameters and scenario uncertainty can be accounted for using higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions and considering a range of pesticides for the scenario selection. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management.

PubMed

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Brainard, Russell E

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated 'full regulation' scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Brainard, Russell E.

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated ‘full regulation’ scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario. PMID:27023183

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

Computer simulations for bioequivalence trials: Selection of analyte in BCS class II and IV drugs with first-pass metabolism, two metabolic pathways and intestinal efflux transporter.

PubMed

Mangas-Sanjuan, Victor; Navarro-Fontestad, Carmen; García-Arieta, Alfredo; Trocóniz, Iñaki F; Bermejo, Marival

2018-05-30

A semi-physiological two compartment pharmacokinetic model with two active metabolites (primary (PM) and secondary metabolites (SM)) with saturable and non-saturable pre-systemic efflux transporter, intestinal and hepatic metabolism has been developed. The aim of this work is to explore in several scenarios which analyte (parent drug or any of the metabolites) is the most sensitive to changes in drug product performance (i.e. differences in in vivo dissolution) and to make recommendations based on the simulations outcome. A total of 128 scenarios (2 Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) drug types, 2 levels of K M Pgp , in 4 metabolic scenarios at 2 dose levels in 4 quality levels of the drug product) were simulated for BCS class II and IV drugs. Monte Carlo simulations of all bioequivalence studies were performed in NONMEM 7.3. Results showed the parent drug (PD) was the most sensitive analyte for bioequivalence trials in all the studied scenarios. PM and SM revealed less or the same sensitivity to detect differences in pharmaceutical quality as the PD. Another relevant result is that mean point estimate of C max and AUC methodology from Monte Carlo simulations allows to select more accurately the most sensitive analyte compared to the criterion on the percentage of failed or successful BE studies, even for metabolites which frequently show greater variability than PD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulations of potential future conditions in the cache critical groundwater area, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rashid, Haveen M.; Clark, Brian R.; Mahdi, Hanan H.; Rifai, Hanadi S.; Al-Shukri, Haydar J.

2015-01-01

A three-dimensional finite-difference model for part of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in the Cache Critical Groundwater Area of eastern Arkansas was constructed to simulate potential future conditions of groundwater flow. The objectives of this study were to test different pilot point distributions to find reasonable estimates of aquifer properties for the alluvial aquifer, to simulate flux from rivers, and to demonstrate how changes in pumping rates for different scenarios affect areas of long-term water-level declines over time. The model was calibrated using the parameter estimation code. Additional calibration was achieved using pilot points with regularization and singular value decomposition. Pilot point parameter values were estimated at a number of discrete locations in the study area to obtain reasonable estimates of aquifer properties. Nine pumping scenarios for the years 2011 to 2020 were tested and compared to the simulated water-level heads from 2010. Hydraulic conductivity values from pilot point calibration ranged between 42 and 173 m/d. Specific yield values ranged between 0.19 and 0.337. Recharge rates ranged between 0.00009 and 0.0006 m/d. The model was calibrated using 2,322 hydraulic head measurements for the years 2000 to 2010 from 150 observation wells located in the study area. For all scenarios, the volume of water depleted ranged between 5.7 and 23.3 percent, except in Scenario 2 (minimum pumping rates), in which the volume increased by 2.5 percent.

Comparison of the Glidescope® and Pentax AWS® laryngoscopes to the Macintosh laryngoscope for use by Advanced Paramedics in easy and simulated difficult intubation

PubMed Central

Nasim, Sajid; Maharaj, Chrisen H; Malik, Muhammad A; O' Donnell, John; Higgins, Brendan D; Laffey, John G

2009-01-01

Background Intubation of the trachea in the pre-hospital setting may be lifesaving in severely ill and injured patients. However, tracheal intubation is frequently difficult to perform in this challenging environment, is associated with a lower success rate, and failed tracheal intubation constitutes an important cause of morbidity. Novel indirect laryngoscopes, such as the Glidescope® and the AWS® laryngoscopes may reduce this risk. Methods We compared the efficacy of these devices to the Macintosh laryngoscope when used by 25 Advanced Paramedics proficient in direct laryngoscopy, in a randomized, controlled, manikin study. Following brief didactic instruction with the Glidescope® and the AWS® laryngoscopes, each participant took turns performing laryngoscopy and intubation with each device, in an easy intubation scenario and following placement of a hard cervical collar, in a SimMan® manikin. Results Both the Glidescope® and the AWS® performed better than the Macintosh, and demonstrate considerable promise in this context. The AWS® had the least number of dental compressions in all three scenarios, and in the cervical spine immobilization scenario it required fewer maneuvers to optimize the view of the glottis. Conclusion The Glidescope® and AWS® devices possess advantages over the conventional Macintosh laryngoscope when used by Advanced Paramedics in normal and simulated difficult intubation scenarios in this manikin study. Further studies are required to extend these findings to the clinical setting. PMID:19445719

The Soil Model Development and Intercomparison Panel (SoilMIP) of the International Soil Modeling Consortium (ISMC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderborght, Jan; Priesack, Eckart

2017-04-01

The Soil Model Development and Intercomparison Panel (SoilMIP) is an initiative of the International Soil Modeling Consortium. Its mission is to foster the further development of soil models that can predict soil functions and their changes (i) due to soil use and land management and (ii) due to external impacts of climate change and pollution. Since soil functions and soil threats are diverse but linked with each other, the overall aim is to develop holistic models that represent the key functions of the soil system and the links between them. These models should be scaled up and integrated in terrestrial system models that describe the feedbacks between processes in the soil and the other terrestrial compartments. We propose and illustrate a few steps that could be taken to achieve these goals. A first step is the development of scenarios that compare simulations by models that predict the same or different soil services. Scenarios can be considered at three different levels of comparisons: scenarios that compare the numerics (accuracy but also speed) of models, scenarios that compare the effect of differences in process descriptions, and scenarios that compare simulations with experimental data. A second step involves the derivation of metrics or summary statistics that effectively compare model simulations and disentangle parameterization from model concept differences. These metrics can be used to evaluate how more complex model simulations can be represented by simpler models using an appropriate parameterization. A third step relates to the parameterization of models. Application of simulation models implies that appropriate model parameters have to be defined for a range of environmental conditions and locations. Spatial modelling approaches are used to derive parameter distributions. Considering that soils and their properties emerge from the interaction between physical, chemical and biological processes, the combination of spatial models with process models would lead to consistent parameter distributions correlations and could potentially represent self-organizing processes in soils and landscapes.

Assessing multimedia/multipathway exposures to inorganic arsenic at population and individual level using MERLIN-Expo.

PubMed

Van Holderbeke, Mirja; Fierens, Tine; Standaert, Arnout; Cornelis, Christa; Brochot, Céline; Ciffroy, Philippe; Johansson, Erik; Bierkens, Johan

2016-10-15

In this study, we report on model simulations performed using the newly developed exposure tool, MERLIN-Expo, in order to assess inorganic arsenic (iAs) exposure to adults resulting from past emissions by non-ferrous smelters in Belgium (Northern Campine area). Exposure scenarios were constructed to estimate external iAs exposure as well as the toxicologically relevant As (tAs, i.e., iAs, MMA and DMA) body burden in adults living in the vicinity of the former industrial sites as compared to adults living in adjacent areas and a reference area. Two scenarios are discussed: a first scenario studying exposure to iAs at the aggregated population level and a second scenario studying exposure at the individual level for a random sub-sample of subjects in each of the three different study areas. These two scenarios only differ in the type of human related input data (i.e., time-activity data, ingestion rates and consumption patterns) that were used, namely averages (incl. probability density functions, PDFs) in the simulation at population level and subject-specific values in the simulation at individual level. The model predictions are shown to be lower than the corresponding biomonitoring data from the monitoring campaign. Urinary tAs levels in adults, irrespective of the area they lived in, were under-predicted by MERLIN-Expo by 40% on average. The model predictions for individual adults, by contrast, under-predict the biomonitoring data by 7% on average, but with more important under-predictions for subjects at the upper end of exposure. Still, average predicted urinary tAs levels from the simulations at population level and at individual level overlap, and, at least for the current case, lead to similar conclusions. These results constitute a first and partial verification of the model performance of MERLIN-Expo when dealing with iAs in a complex site-specific exposure scenario, and demonstrate the robustness of the modelling tool for these situations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico).

PubMed

Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Cesar; Tysinger, Bryan; Goldman, Dana P; Wong, Rebeca

2017-10-25

Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico's older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001-2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2014-05-01

Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some months over different years. There are no chances of overtopping of the dam during the 2020s and the 2050s under A2 and B2 scenarios. _______________________________________________________________________________KEY WORDS: Climate Model, Climate Change, Hydrological Model, Climate Change Scenarios, Tarbela Reservoir, Inflow, Outflow, Evaporation, Indus River, Calibration, Bias Correction.

Environmental and nutrition impact of achieving new School Food Plan recommendations in the primary school meals sector in England

PubMed Central

Wickramasinghe, Kremlin; Rayner, Mike; Goldacre, Michael; Townsend, Nick; Scarborough, Peter

2017-01-01

Objectives The aim of this modelling study was to estimate the expected changes in the nutritional quality and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) of primary school meals due to the adoption of new mandatory food-based standards for school meals. Setting Nationally representative random sample of 136 primary schools in England was selected for the Primary School Food Survey (PSFS) with 50% response rate. Participants A sample of 6690 primary students from PSFS who consumed school meals. Outcome measures Primary School Food Plan (SFP) nutritional impact was assessed using both macronutrient and micronutrient quality. The environmental impact was measured by GHGEs. Methods The scenario tested was one in which every meal served in schools met more than half of the food-based standards mentioned in the SFP (SFP scenario). We used findings from a systematic review to assign GHGE values for each food item in the data set. The GHGE value and nutritional quality of SFP scenario meals was compared with the average primary school meal in the total PSFS data set (pre-SFP scenario). Prior to introduction of the SFP (pre-SFP scenario), the primary school meals had mandatory nutrient-based guidelines. Results The percentage of meals that met the protein standard increased in the SFP scenario and the proportion of meals that met the standards for important micronutrients (eg, iron, calcium, vitamin A and C) also increased. However, the SFP scenario did not improve the salt, saturated fat and free sugar levels. The mean GHGE value of meals which met the SFP standards was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.81) kgCO2e compared with a mean value of 0.72 (0.71 to 0.74) kgCO2e for all meals. Adopting the SFP would increase the total emissions associated with primary school meals by 22 000 000 kgCO2e per year. Conclusions The universal adoption of the new food-based standards, without reformulation would result in an increase in the GHGEs of school meals and improve some aspects of the nutritional quality, but it would not improve the average salt, sugar and saturated fat content levels. PMID:28381419

Assessment of driving-related performance in chronic whiplash using an advanced driving simulator.

PubMed

Takasaki, Hiroshi; Treleaven, Julia; Johnston, Venerina; Rakotonirainy, Andry; Haines, Andrew; Jull, Gwendolen

2013-11-01

Driving is often nominated as problematic by individuals with chronic whiplash associated disorders (WAD), yet driving-related performance has not been evaluated objectively. The purpose of this study was to test driving-related performance in persons with chronic WAD against healthy controls of similar age, gender and driving experience to determine if driving-related performance in the WAD group was sufficiently impaired to recommend fitness to drive assessment. Driving-related performance was assessed using an advanced driving simulator during three driving scenarios; freeway, residential and a central business district (CBD). Total driving duration was approximately 15min. Five driving tasks which could cause a collision (critical events) were included in the scenarios. In addition, the effect of divided attention (identify red dots projected onto side or rear view mirrors) was assessed three times in each scenario. Driving performance was measured using the simulator performance index (SPI) which is calculated from 12 measures. z-Scores for all SPI measures were calculated for each WAD subject based on mean values of the control subjects. The z-scores were then averaged for the WAD group. A z-score of ≤-2 indicated a driving failing grade in the simulator. The number of collisions over the five critical events was compared between the WAD and control groups as was reaction time and missed response ratio in identifying the red dots. Seventeen WAD and 26 control subjects commenced the driving assessment. Demographic data were comparable between the groups. All subjects completed the freeway scenario but four withdrew during the residential and eight during the CBD scenario because of motion sickness. All scenarios were completed by 14 WAD and 17 control subjects. Mean z-scores for the SPI over the three scenarios was statistically lower in the WAD group (-0.3±0.3; P<0.05) but the score was not below the cut-off point for safe driving. There were no differences in the reaction time and missed response ratio in divided attention tasks between the groups (All P>0.05). Assessment of driving in an advanced driving simulator for approximately 15min revealed that driving-related performance in chronic WAD was not sufficiently impaired to recommend the need for fitness to drive assessment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental and nutrition impact of achieving new School Food Plan recommendations in the primary school meals sector in England.

PubMed

Wickramasinghe, Kremlin; Rayner, Mike; Goldacre, Michael; Townsend, Nick; Scarborough, Peter

2017-04-05

The aim of this modelling study was to estimate the expected changes in the nutritional quality and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) of primary school meals due to the adoption of new mandatory food-based standards for school meals. Nationally representative random sample of 136 primary schools in England was selected for the Primary School Food Survey (PSFS) with 50% response rate. A sample of 6690 primary students from PSFS who consumed school meals. Primary School Food Plan (SFP) nutritional impact was assessed using both macronutrient and micronutrient quality. The environmental impact was measured by GHGEs. The scenario tested was one in which every meal served in schools met more than half of the food-based standards mentioned in the SFP (SFP scenario). We used findings from a systematic review to assign GHGE values for each food item in the data set. The GHGE value and nutritional quality of SFP scenario meals was compared with the average primary school meal in the total PSFS data set (pre-SFP scenario). Prior to introduction of the SFP (pre-SFP scenario), the primary school meals had mandatory nutrient-based guidelines. The percentage of meals that met the protein standard increased in the SFP scenario and the proportion of meals that met the standards for important micronutrients (eg, iron, calcium, vitamin A and C) also increased. However, the SFP scenario did not improve the salt, saturated fat and free sugar levels. The mean GHGE value of meals which met the SFP standards was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.81) kgCO 2 e compared with a mean value of 0.72 (0.71 to 0.74) kgCO 2 e for all meals. Adopting the SFP would increase the total emissions associated with primary school meals by 22 000 000 kgCO 2 e per year. The universal adoption of the new food-based standards, without reformulation would result in an increase in the GHGEs of school meals and improve some aspects of the nutritional quality, but it would not improve the average salt, sugar and saturated fat content levels. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Children's exposure to harmful elements in toys and low-cost jewelry: characterizing risks and developing a comprehensive approach.

PubMed

Guney, Mert; Zagury, Gerald J

2014-04-30

Contamination problem in jewelry and toys and children's exposure possibility have been previously demonstrated. For this study, risk from oral exposure has been characterized for highly contaminated metallic toys and jewelry ((MJ), n=16) considering three scenarios. Total and bioaccessible concentrations of Cd, Cu, Ni, and Pb were high in selected MJ. First scenario (ingestion of parts or pieces) caused unacceptable risk for eight items for Cd, Ni, and/or Pb (hazard index (HI)>1, up to 75, 5.8, and 43, respectively). HI for ingestion of scraped-off material scenario was always <1. Finally, saliva mobilization scenario caused HI>1 in three samples (two for Cd, one for Ni). Risk characterization identified different potentially hazardous items compared to United States, Canadian, and European Union approaches. A comprehensive approach was also developed to deal with complexity and drawbacks caused by various toy/jewelry definitions, test methods, exposure scenarios, and elements considered in different regulatory approaches. It includes bioaccessible limits for eight priority elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Sb). Research is recommended on metals bioaccessibility determination in toys/jewelry, in vitro bioaccessibility test development, estimation of material ingestion rates and frequency, presence of hexavalent Cr and organic Sn, and assessment of prolonged exposure to MJ. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of effects of groundwater withdrawals at the proposed Allen combined-cycle combustion turbine plant, Shelby County, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haugh, Connor J.

2016-08-10

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater-flow model was used to simulate the potential effects of future groundwater withdrawals at the proposed Allen combined-cycle combustion turbine plant in Shelby County, Tennessee. The scenario used in the simulation consisted of a 30-year average withdrawal period followed by a 30-day maximum withdrawal period. Effects of withdrawals at the Allen plant site on the Mississippi embayment aquifer system were evaluated by comparing the difference in simulated water levels in the aquifers at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and at the end of the scenario to a base case without the Allen combined-cycle combustion turbine plant withdrawals. Simulated potentiometric surface declines in the Memphis aquifer at the Allen plant site were about 7 feet at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and 11 feet at the end of the scenario. The affected area of the Memphis aquifer at the Allen plant site as delineated by the 4-foot potentiometric surface-decline contour was 2,590 acres at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and 11,380 acres at the end of the scenario. Simulated declines in the underlying Fort Pillow aquifer and overlying shallow aquifer were both less than 1 foot at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and the end of the scenario.

Economic and environmental evaluation model for selecting the optimum design of green roof systems in elementary schools.

PubMed

Kim, JiMin; Hong, TaeHoon; Koo, Choong-Wan

2012-08-07

Green-roof systems offer various benefits to man and nature, such as establishing ecological environments, improving landscape and air quality, and offering pleasant living environments. This study aimed to develop an optimal-scenario selection model that considers both the economic and the environmental effect in applying GRSs to educational facilities. The following process was carried out: (i) 15 GRSs scenarios were established by combining three soil and five plant types and (ii) the results of the life cycle CO(2) analyses with the GRSs scenarios were converted to an economic value using certified emission reductions (CERs) carbon credits. Life cycle cost (LCC) analyses were performed based on these results. The results showed that when considering only the currently realized economic value, the conventional roof system is superior to the GRSs. However, the LCC analysis that included the environmental value, revealed that compared to the conventional roof system, the following six GRSs scenarios are superior (cost reduction; reduction ratio; in descending order): scenarios 13 ($195,229; 11.0%), 3 ($188,178; 10.6%), 8 ($181,558; 10.3%), 12 ($130,464; 7.4%), 2 ($124,566; 7.0%), and 7 ($113,931; 6.4%). Although the effect is relatively small in terms of cost reduction, environmental value attributes cannot be ignored in terms of the reduction ratio.

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

PubMed Central

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

An extensive study of Bose-Einstein condensation in liquid helium using Tsallis statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Atanu; Das, Prasanta Kumar

2018-05-01

Realistic scenario can be represented by general canonical ensemble way better than the ideal one, with proper parameter sets involved. We study the Bose-Einstein condensation phenomena of liquid helium within the framework of Tsallis statistics. With a comparatively high value of the deformation parameter q(∼ 1 . 4) , the theoretically calculated value of the critical temperature (Tc) of the phase transition of liquid helium is found to agree with the experimentally determined value (Tc = 2 . 17 K), although they differs from each other for q = 1 (undeformed scenario). This throws a light on the understanding of the phenomenon and connects temperature fluctuation(non-equilibrium conditions) with the interactions between atoms qualitatively. More interactions between atoms give rise to more non-equilibrium conditions which is as expected.

Student Engagement with a Flipped Classroom Teaching Design Affects Pharmacology Examination Performance in a Manner Dependent on Question Type

PubMed Central

Naidu, Som; Yuriev, Elizabeth; Short, Jennifer L.; McLaughlin, Jacqueline E.; Larson, Ian C.

2017-01-01

Objective: To investigate the relationship between student engagement with the key elements of a flipped classroom approach (preparation and attendance), their attitudes to learning, including strategy development, and their performance on two types of examination questions (knowledge recall and providing rational predictions when faced with novel scenarios). Methods. This study correlated student engagement with the flipped classroom and student disposition to learning with student ability to solve novel scenarios in examinations. Results. Students who both prepared for and attended classes performed significantly better on examination questions that required analysis of novel scenarios compared to students who did not prepare and missed classes. However, there was no difference for both groups of students on examination questions that required knowledge and comprehension. Student motivation and use of strategies correlated with higher examination scores on questions requiring novel scenario analysis. Conclusion. There is a synergistic relationship between class preparation and attendance. The combination of preparation and attendance was positively correlated to assessment type; the relationship was apparent for questions requiring students to solve novel problems but not for questions requiring knowledge or comprehension. PMID:29302082

Time pressure in scenario-based online construction safety quizzes and its effect on students' performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeger, Martin; Adair, Desmond

2017-05-01

Online quizzes have been shown to be effective learning and assessment approaches. However, if scenario-based online construction safety quizzes do not include time pressure similar to real-world situations, they reflect situations too ideally. The purpose of this paper is to compare engineering students' performance when carrying out an online construction safety quiz with time pressure versus an online construction safety quiz without time pressure. Two versions of an online construction safety quiz are developed and administered to randomly assigned engineering students based on a quasi-experimental post-test design. The findings contribute to scenario-based learning and assessment of construction safety in four ways. First, the results confirm earlier findings that 'intrinsic stress' does not seem to impair students' performance. Second, students who carry out the online construction safety quiz with time pressure are less likely to 'learn by trial and error'. Third, students exposed to time pressure appreciate that they become better prepared for real life. Finally, preparing students to work under time pressure is an important industry requirement. The results of this study should encourage engineering educators to explore and implement ways to include time pressure in scenario-based online quizzes and learning.

Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

2014-10-01

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

Effects of Social Persuasion from Parents and Teachers on Chinese Students' Self-Efficacy: An Exploratory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Yuen Yi; Chan, Joanne Chung Yan

2017-01-01

This study compared the effects of social persuasion from parents and teachers on students' self-efficacy in reading comprehension in English as a foreign language. Ninety-nine Grade 8 Chinese students in a secondary school in Hong Kong completed a questionnaire with six scenarios which tapped their self-efficacy after receiving positive and…

29 CFR 2590.715-2715 - Summary of benefits and coverage and uniform glossary.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... definitions of standard insurance terms and medical terms so that consumers may compare health coverage and... scenarios (including pregnancy and serious or chronic medical conditions) in accordance with this paragraph... scenario is a hypothetical situation, consisting of a sample treatment plan for a specified medical...

29 CFR 2590.715-2715 - Summary of benefits and coverage and uniform glossary.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... definitions of standard insurance terms and medical terms so that consumers may compare health coverage and... scenarios (including pregnancy and serious or chronic medical conditions) in accordance with this paragraph... scenario is a hypothetical situation, consisting of a sample treatment plan for a specified medical...