Effects of hydraulic roughness on surface textures of gravel-bed rivers

Treesearch

John M. Buffington; David R. Montgomery

1999-01-01

Field studies of forest gravel-bed rivers in northwestern Washington and southeastern Alaska demonstrate that bed-surface grain size is responsive to hydraulic roughness caused by bank irregularities, bars, and wood debris. We evaluate textural response by comparing reach-average median grain size (D50) to that predicted from the total bank-full boundary shear stress (...

Arcjet Testing and Thermal Model Development for Multilayer Felt Reusable Surface Insulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milos, Frank S.; Scott, Carl Douglas; Papa, Steven V.

2012-01-01

Felt Reusable Surface Insulation was used extensively on leeward external surfaces of the Shuttle Orbiter, where the material is reusable for temperatures up to 670 K. For application on leeward surfaces of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, where predicted temperatures reach 1620 K, the material functions as a pyrolyzing conformal ablator. An arcjet test series was conducted to assess the performance of multilayer Felt Reusable Surface Insulation at high temperatures, and a thermal-response, pyrolysis, and ablation model was developed. Model predictions compare favorably with the arcjet test data

Adaptation of reach-to-grasp movement in response to force perturbations.

PubMed

Rand, M K; Shimansky, Y; Stelmach, G E; Bloedel, J R

2004-01-01

This study examined how reach-to-grasp movements are modified during adaptation to external force perturbations applied on the arm during reach. Specifically, we examined whether the organization of these movements was dependent upon the condition under which the perturbation was applied. In response to an auditory signal, all subjects were asked to reach for a vertical dowel, grasp it between the index finger and thumb, and lift it a short distance off the table. The subjects were instructed to do the task as fast as possible. The perturbation was an elastic load acting on the wrist at an angle of 105 deg lateral to the reaching direction. The condition was modified by changing the predictability with which the perturbation was applied in a given trial. After recording unperturbed control trials, perturbations were applied first on successive trials (predictable perturbations) and then were applied randomly (unpredictable perturbations). In the early predictable perturbation trials, reach path length became longer and reaching duration increased. As more predictable perturbations were applied, the reach path length gradually decreased and became similar to that of control trials. Reaching duration also decreased gradually as the subjects adapted by exerting force against the perturbation. In addition, the amplitude of peak grip aperture during arm transport initially increased in response to repeated perturbations. During the course of learning, it reached its maximum and thereafter slightly decreased. However, it did not return to the normal level. The subjects also adapted to the unpredictable perturbations through changes in both arm transport and grasping components, indicating that they can compensate even when the occurrence of the perturbation cannot be predicted during the inter-trial interval. Throughout random perturbation trials, large grip aperture values were observed, suggesting that a conservative aperture level is set regardless of whether the reaching arm is perturbed or not. In addition, the results of the predictable perturbations showed that the time from movement onset to the onset of grip aperture closure changed as adaptation occurred. However, the spatial location where the onset of finger closure occurred showed minimum changes with perturbation. These data suggest that the onset of finger closure is dependent upon distance to target rather than the temporal relationship of the grasp relative to the transport phase of the movement.

Glucose predictability, blood capillary permeability, and glucose utilization rate in subcutaneous, skeletal muscle, and visceral fat tissues.

PubMed

Koutny, Tomas

2013-11-01

This study suggests an approach for the comparison and evaluation of particular compartments with modest experimental setup costs. A glucose level prediction model was used to evaluate the compartment's glucose transport rate across the blood capillary membrane and the glucose utilization rate by the cells. The glucose levels of the blood, subcutaneous tissue, skeletal muscle tissue, and visceral fat were obtained in experiments conducted on hereditary hypertriglyceridemic rats. After the blood glucose level had undergone a rapid change, the experimenter attempted to reach a steady blood glucose level by manually correcting the glucose infusion rate and maintaining a constant insulin infusion rate. The interstitial fluid glucose levels of subcutaneous tissue, skeletal muscle tissue, and visceral fat were evaluated to determine the reaction delay compared with the change in the blood glucose level, the interstitial fluid glucose level predictability, the blood capillary permeability, the effect of the concentration gradient, and the glucose utilization rate. Based on these data, the glucose transport rate across the capillary membrane and the utilization rate in a particular tissue were determined. The rates obtained were successfully verified against positron emission tomography experiments. The subcutaneous tissue exhibits the lowest and the most predictable glucose utilization rate, whereas the skeletal muscle tissue has the greatest glucose utilization rate. In contrast, the visceral fat is the least predictable and has the shortest reaction delay compared with the change in the blood glucose level. The reaction delays obtained for the subcutaneous tissue and skeletal muscle tissue were found to be approximately equal using a metric based on the time required to reach half of the increase in the interstitial fluid glucose level. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment of a numerical model to reproduce event-scale erosion and deposition distributions in a braided river.

PubMed

Williams, R D; Measures, R; Hicks, D M; Brasington, J

2016-08-01

Numerical morphological modeling of braided rivers, using a physics-based approach, is increasingly used as a technique to explore controls on river pattern and, from an applied perspective, to simulate the impact of channel modifications. This paper assesses a depth-averaged nonuniform sediment model (Delft3D) to predict the morphodynamics of a 2.5 km long reach of the braided Rees River, New Zealand, during a single high-flow event. Evaluation of model performance primarily focused upon using high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of Difference, derived from a fusion of terrestrial laser scanning and optical empirical bathymetric mapping, to compare observed and predicted patterns of erosion and deposition and reach-scale sediment budgets. For the calibrated model, this was supplemented with planform metrics (e.g., braiding intensity). Extensive sensitivity analysis of model functions and parameters was executed, including consideration of numerical scheme for bed load component calculations, hydraulics, bed composition, bed load transport and bed slope effects, bank erosion, and frequency of calculations. Total predicted volumes of erosion and deposition corresponded well to those observed. The difference between predicted and observed volumes of erosion was less than the factor of two that characterizes the accuracy of the Gaeuman et al. bed load transport formula. Grain size distributions were best represented using two φ intervals. For unsteady flows, results were sensitive to the morphological time scale factor. The approach of comparing observed and predicted morphological sediment budgets shows the value of using natural experiment data sets for model testing. Sensitivity results are transferable to guide Delft3D applications to other rivers.

Landscape geomorphic characteristic impacts on greenhouse gas fluxes in exposed stream and riparian sediments.

PubMed

Vidon, Philippe; Serchan, Satish

2016-07-13

While excessive releases of greenhouse gases (GHG: N2O, CO2, CH4) to the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuel remains a concern, we also need to better quantify GHG emissions from natural systems. This study investigates GHG fluxes at the soil-atmosphere interface in a series of 7 stream reaches (riparian zones + exposed streambed sediment) across a range of geomorphic locations from headwaters reaches to lowland wetland reaches. When riparian fluxes (RZ) are compared to fluxes from in-stream locations (IS) under summer baseflow conditions, total CO2-equivalent (CO2eq) emissions are approximately 5 times higher at RZ locations than at IS locations, with most CO2eq driven by CH4 production at RZ locations where wet conditions dominate (headwater wetlands, lowland wetlands). On a gas-by-gas basis, no clear differences in N2O fluxes between RZ and IS locations were observed regardless of locations (headwater vs. lowland reaches), while CO2 fluxes were significantly larger at RZ locations than IS locations. Methane fluxes were significantly higher in wetland-influenced reaches than other reaches for both RZ and IS locations. However, GHG fluxes were not consistently correlated to DOC, DO, NO3(-), NH4(+), or water temperature, stressing the limitations of using water quality parameters to predict GHG emissions at the floodplain scale, at least during summer baseflow conditions. As strategies are developed to further constrain GHG emission for whole watersheds, we propose that approaches linking landscape geomorphic characteristics to GHG fluxes at the soil-atmosphere interface offer a promising avenue to successfully predict GHG emissions in floodplains at the watershed scale.

Differences in aquatic habitat quality as an impact of one- and two-dimensional hydrodynamic model simulated flow variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjankar, R. M.; Sohrabi, M.; Tonina, D.; McKean, J. A.

2013-12-01

Aquatic habitat models utilize flow variables which may be predicted with one-dimensional (1D) or two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic models to simulate aquatic habitat quality. Studies focusing on the effects of hydrodynamic model dimensionality on predicted aquatic habitat quality are limited. Here we present the analysis of the impact of flow variables predicted with 1D and 2D hydrodynamic models on simulated spatial distribution of habitat quality and Weighted Usable Area (WUA) for fall-spawning Chinook salmon. Our study focuses on three river systems located in central Idaho (USA), which are a straight and pool-riffle reach (South Fork Boise River), small pool-riffle sinuous streams in a large meadow (Bear Valley Creek) and a steep-confined plane-bed stream with occasional deep forced pools (Deadwood River). We consider low and high flows in simple and complex morphologic reaches. Results show that 1D and 2D modeling approaches have effects on both the spatial distribution of the habitat and WUA for both discharge scenarios, but we did not find noticeable differences between complex and simple reaches. In general, the differences in WUA were small, but depended on stream type. Nevertheless, spatially distributed habitat quality difference is considerable in all streams. The steep-confined plane bed stream had larger differences between aquatic habitat quality defined with 1D and 2D flow models compared to results for streams with well defined macro-topographies, such as pool-riffle bed forms. KEY WORDS: one- and two-dimensional hydrodynamic models, habitat modeling, weighted usable area (WUA), hydraulic habitat suitability, high and low discharges, simple and complex reaches

Residual Stress Assessment in Thin Angle Ply Tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaddour, A. S.; Al-Hassani, S. T. S.; Hinton, M. J.

2003-05-01

This preliminary study aims to investigate the residual stresses developed in hot cured thin-walled angle-ply filament wound tubes made of E-glass/epoxy, Kevlar/epoxy and carbon/epoxy materials. The residual stresses were estimated from change in geometry of these tubes when axially slitted at ambient temperature. Three basic deformation modes; namely opening up, closing-in and twisting, were observed and these depended on the winding angle, material and wall thickness. The residual stresses were also determined from hoop and axial strain gauges mounted on both the inner and outer surfaces at various locations around the tube. The stresses were compared with theoretical prediction based upon a linear thermo-elastic analysis. Both the predicted and measured values were found to increase with increasing hoop stiffness but there was a large discrepancy between the predicted and measured data, reaching a factor of 5 for the thinnest case. When compared with predicted failure stresses, the experimentally determined stresses were some 15% of the computed compressive strength.

Very Slow Search and Reach: Failure to Maximize Expected Gain in an Eye-Hand Coordination Task

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hang; Morvan, Camille; Etezad-Heydari, Louis-Alexandre; Maloney, Laurence T.

2012-01-01

We examined an eye-hand coordination task where optimal visual search and hand movement strategies were inter-related. Observers were asked to find and touch a target among five distractors on a touch screen. Their reward for touching the target was reduced by an amount proportional to how long they took to locate and reach to it. Coordinating the eye and the hand appropriately would markedly reduce the search-reach time. Using statistical decision theory we derived the sequence of interrelated eye and hand movements that would maximize expected gain and we predicted how hand movements should change as the eye gathered further information about target location. We recorded human observers' eye movements and hand movements and compared them with the optimal strategy that would have maximized expected gain. We found that most observers failed to adopt the optimal search-reach strategy. We analyze and describe the strategies they did adopt. PMID:23071430

Modeling and evaluation of urban pollution events of atmospheric heavy metals from a large Cu-smelter.

PubMed

Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F; Castell, Nuria; Gonzalez-Castanedo, Yolanda; Sanchez de la Campa, A M; de la Rosa, J D

2016-01-01

Metal smelting and processing are highly polluting activities that have a strong influence on the levels of heavy metals in air, soil, and crops. We employ an atmospheric transport and dispersion model to predict the pollution levels originated from the second largest Cu-smelter in Europe. The model predicts that the concentrations of copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and arsenic (As) in an urban area close to the Cu-smelter can reach 170, 70, and 30 ng m−3, respectively. The model captures all the observed urban pollution events, but the magnitude of the elemental concentrations is predicted to be lower than that of the observed values; ~300, ~500, and ~100 ng m−3 for Cu, Zn, and As, respectively. The comparison between model and observations showed an average correlation coefficient of 0.62 ± 0.13. The simulation shows that the transport of heavy metals reaches a peak in the afternoon over the urban area. The under-prediction in the peak is explained by the simulated stronger winds compared with monitoring data. The stronger simulated winds enhance the transport and dispersion of heavy metals to the regional area, diminishing the impact of pollution events in the urban area. This model, driven by high resolution meteorology (2 km in horizontal), predicts the hourly-interval evolutions of atmospheric heavy metal pollutions in the close by urban area of industrial hotspot.

Validation of Field Methods to Assess Body Fat Percentage in Elite Youth Soccer Players.

PubMed

Munguia-Izquierdo, Diego; Suarez-Arrones, Luis; Di Salvo, Valter; Paredes-Hernandez, Victor; Alcazar, Julian; Ara, Ignacio; Kreider, Richard; Mendez-Villanueva, Alberto

2018-05-01

This study determined the most effective field method for quantifying body fat percentage in male elite youth soccer players and developed prediction equations based on anthropometric variables. Forty-four male elite-standard youth soccer players aged 16.3-18.0 years underwent body fat percentage assessments, including bioelectrical impedance analysis and the calculation of various skinfold-based prediction equations. Dual X-ray absorptiometry provided a criterion measure of body fat percentage. Correlation coefficients, bias, limits of agreement, and differences were used as validity measures, and regression analyses were used to develop soccer-specific prediction equations. The equations from Sarria et al. (1998) and Durnin & Rahaman (1967) reached very large correlations and the lowest biases, and they reached neither the practically worthwhile difference nor the substantial difference between methods. The new youth soccer-specific skinfold equation included a combination of triceps and supraspinale skinfolds. None of the practical methods compared in this study are adequate for estimating body fat percentage in male elite youth soccer players, except for the equations from Sarria et al. (1998) and Durnin & Rahaman (1967). The new youth soccer-specific equation calculated in this investigation is the only field method specifically developed and validated in elite male players, and it shows potentially good predictive power. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Near infrared spectroscopy to estimate the temperature reached on burned soils: strategies to develop robust models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, César; Pedrosa, Elisabete T.; Pérez-Bejarano, Andrea; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2014-05-01

The temperature reached on soils is an important parameter needed to describe the wildfire effects. However, the methods for measure the temperature reached on burned soils have been poorly developed. Recently, the use of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been pointed as a valuable tool for this purpose. The NIR spectrum of a soil sample contains information of the organic matter (quantity and quality), clay (quantity and quality), minerals (such as carbonates and iron oxides) and water contents. Some of these components are modified by the heat, and each temperature causes a group of changes, leaving a typical fingerprint on the NIR spectrum. This technique needs the use of a model (or calibration) where the changes in the NIR spectra are related with the temperature reached. For the development of the model, several aliquots are heated at known temperatures, and used as standards in the calibration set. This model offers the possibility to make estimations of the temperature reached on a burned sample from its NIR spectrum. However, the estimation of the temperature reached using NIR spectroscopy is due to changes in several components, and cannot be attributed to changes in a unique soil component. Thus, we can estimate the temperature reached by the interaction between temperature and the thermo-sensible soil components. In addition, we cannot expect the uniform distribution of these components, even at small scale. Consequently, the proportion of these soil components can vary spatially across the site. This variation will be present in the samples used to construct the model and also in the samples affected by the wildfire. Therefore, the strategies followed to develop robust models should be focused to manage this expected variation. In this work we compared the prediction accuracy of models constructed with different approaches. These approaches were designed to provide insights about how to distribute the efforts needed for the development of robust models, since this step is the bottle-neck of this technique. In the first approach, a plot-scale model was used to predict the temperature reached in samples collected in other plots from the same site. In a plot-scale model, all the heated aliquots come from a unique plot-scale sample. As expected, the results obtained with this approach were deceptive, because this approach was assuming that a plot-scale model would be enough to represent the whole variability of the site. The accuracy (measured as the root mean square error of prediction, thereinafter RMSEP) was 86ºC, and the bias was also high (>30ºC). In the second approach, the temperatures predicted through several plot-scale models were averaged. The accuracy was improved (RMSEP=65ºC) respect the first approach, because the variability from several plots was considered and biased predictions were partially counterbalanced. However, this approach implies more efforts, since several plot-scale models are needed. In the third approach, the predictions were obtained with site-scale models. These models were constructed with aliquots from several plots. In this case, the results were accurate, since the RMSEP was around 40ºC, the bias was very small (<1ºC) and the R2 was 0.92. As expected, this approach clearly outperformed the second approach, in spite of the fact that the same efforts were needed. In a plot-scale model, only one interaction between temperature and soil components was modelled. However, several different interactions between temperature and soil components were present in the calibration matrix of a site-scale model. Consequently, the site-scale models were able to model the temperature reached excluding the influence of the differences in soil composition, resulting in more robust models respect that variation. Summarizing, the results were highlighting the importance of an adequate strategy to develop robust and accurate models with moderate efforts, and how a wrong strategy can result in deceptive predictions.

Changes in Pilot Behavior with Predictive System Status Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1998-01-01

Research has shown a strong pilot preference for predictive information of aircraft system status in the flight deck. However, changes in pilot behavior associated with using this predictive information have not been ascertained. The study described here quantified these changes using three types of predictive information (none, whether a parameter was changing abnormally, and the time for a parameter to reach an alert range) and three initial time intervals until a parameter alert range was reached (ITIs) (1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes). With predictive information, subjects accomplished most of their tasks before an alert occurred. Subjects organized the time they did their tasks by locus-of-control with no predictive information and for the 1-minute ITI, and by aviatenavigate-communicate for the time for a parameter to reach an alert range and the 15-minute conditions. Overall, predictive information and the longer ITIs moved subjects to performing tasks before the alert actually occurred and had them more mission oriented as indicated by their tasks grouping of aviate-navigate-communicate.

Determination of reaeration-rate coefficients of the Wabash River, Indiana, by the modified tracer technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Charles G.

1985-01-01

The modified tracer technique was used to determine reaeration-rate coefficients in the Wabash River in reaches near Lafayette and Terre Haute, Indiana, at streamflows ranging from 2,310 to 7,400 cu ft/sec. Chemically pure (CP grade) ethylene was used as the tracer gas, and rhodamine-WT dye was used as the dispersion-dilution tracer. Reaeration coefficients determined for a 13.5-mi reach near Terre Haute, Indiana, at streamflows of 3,360 and 7,400 cu ft/sec (71% and 43% flow duration) were 1.4/day and 1.1/day at 20 C, respectively. Reaeration-rate coefficients determined for a 18.4-mile reach near Lafayette, Indiana, at streamflows of 2,310 and 3,420 cu ft/sec (70% and 53 % flow duration), were 1.2/day and 0.8/day at 20 C, respectively. None of the commonly used equations found in the literature predicted reaeration-rate coefficients similar to those measured for reaches of the Wabash River near Lafayette and Terre Haute. The average absolute prediction error for 10 commonly used reaeration equations ranged from 22% to 154%. Prediction error was much smaller in the reach near Terre Haute than in the reach near Lafayette. The overall average of the absolute prediction error for all 10 equations was 22% for the reach near Terre Haute and 128% for the reach near Lafayette. Confidence limits of results obtained from the modified tracer technique were smaller than those obtained from the equations in the literature. 

Prediction of engine exhaust concentrations downwind from the Delta-Thor Telsat-A launch of 9 November 1972

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, J. W.; Susko, M.; Hill, C. K.

1973-01-01

Results are presented of the downwind concentrations of engine exhaust by-products from the Delta-Thor Telsat-A vehicle launched from Cape Kennedy, Florida on November 9, 1972 (2014 EST). The meteorological conditions which existed are identified as well as the exhaust cloud rise and the results from the MSFC Multilayer Diffusion Model calculations. These predictions are compared to exhaust cloud sampled data acquired by the Langley Research Center personnel. Values of the surface level concentrations show that very little hydrochloric acid, carbon monoxide, or aluminum oxide reached the ground.

The drivers of wildfire enlargement do not exhibit scale thresholds in southeastern Australian forests.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Penman, Trent; Bradstock, Ross; Borah, Rittick

2016-10-01

Wildfires are complex adaptive systems, and have been hypothesized to exhibit scale-dependent transitions in the drivers of fire spread. Among other things, this makes the prediction of final fire size from conditions at the ignition difficult. We test this hypothesis by conducting a multi-scale statistical modelling of the factors determining whether fires reached 10 ha, then 100 ha then 1000 ha and the final size of fires >1000 ha. At each stage, the predictors were measures of weather, fuels, topography and fire suppression. The objectives were to identify differences among the models indicative of scale transitions, assess the accuracy of the multi-step method for predicting fire size (compared to predicting final size from initial conditions) and to quantify the importance of the predictors. The data were 1116 fires that occurred in the eucalypt forests of New South Wales between 1985 and 2010. The models were similar at the different scales, though there were subtle differences. For example, the presence of roads affected whether fires reached 10 ha but not larger scales. Weather was the most important predictor overall, though fuel load, topography and ease of suppression all showed effects. Overall, there was no evidence that fires have scale-dependent transitions in behaviour. The models had a predictive accuracy of 73%, 66%, 72% and 53% accuracy at 10 ha, 100 ha, 1000 ha and final size scales. When these steps were combined, the overall accuracy for predicting the size of fires was 62%, while the accuracy of the one step model was only 20%. Thus, the multi-scale approach was an improvement on the single scale approach, even though the predictive accuracy was probably insufficient for use as an operational tool. The analysis has also provided further evidence of the important role of weather, compared to fuel, suppression and topography in driving fire behaviour. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

[Sequential monitoring of renal transplant with aspiration cytology].

PubMed

Manfro, R C; Gonçalves, L F; de Moura, L A

1998-01-01

To evaluate the utility of kidney aspiration cytology in the sequential monitorization of acute rejection in renal transplant patients. Thirty patients were submitted to 376 aspirations. The clinical diagnoses were independently established. The representativity of the samples reached 82.7%. The total corrected increment index and the number of immunoactivated cells were higher during acute rejection as compared to normal allograft function, acute tubular necrosis, and cyclosporine nephrotoxicity. The parameters to the diagnosis of acute rejection were sensitivity: 71.8%, specificity: 87.3%, positive predictive value: 50.9%, negative predictive value: 94.9% and accuracy 84.9%. The false positive results were mainly related to cytomegalovirus infection or to the administration of OKT3. In 10 out of 11 false negative results incipient immunoactivation was present alerting to the possibility of acute rejection. Kidney aspiration cytology is a useful tool for the sequential monitorization of acute rejection in renal transplant patients. The best results are reached when the results of aspiration cytology are analyzed with the clinical data.

Assessment of Suited Reach Envelope in an Underwater Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Han; Benson, Elizabeth; Bernal, Yaritza; Jarvis, Sarah; Meginnis, Ian; Rajulu, Sudhakar

2017-01-01

Predicting the performance of a crewmember in an extravehicular activity (EVA) space suit presents unique challenges. The kinematic patterns of suited motions are difficult to reproduce in gravity. Additionally, 3-D suited kinematics have been practically and technically difficult to quantify in an underwater environment, in which crewmembers are commonly trained and assessed for performance. The goal of this study is to develop a hardware and software system to predictively evaluate the kinematic mobility of suited crewmembers, by measuring the 3-D reach envelope of the suit in an underwater environment. This work is ultimately aimed at developing quantitative metrics to compare the mobility of the existing Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) to newly developed space suit, such as the Z-2. The EMU has been extensively used at NASA since 1981 for EVA outside the Space Shuttle and International Space Station. The Z-2 suit is NASA's newest prototype space suit. The suit is comprised of new upper torso and lower torso architectures, which were designed to improve test subject mobility.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Predicting Madura cattle growth curve using non-linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widyas, N.; Prastowo, S.; Widi, T. S. M.; Baliarti, E.

2018-03-01

Madura cattle is Indonesian native. It is a composite breed that has undergone hundreds of years of selection and domestication to reach nowadays remarkable uniformity. Crossbreeding has reached the isle of Madura and the Madrasin, a cross between Madura cows and Limousine semen emerged. This paper aimed to compare the growth curve between Madrasin and one type of pure Madura cows, the common Madura cattle (Madura) using non-linear models. Madura cattles are kept traditionally thus reliable records are hardly available. Data were collected from small holder farmers in Madura. Cows from different age classes (<6 months, 6-12 months, 1-2years, 2-3years, 3-5years and >5years) were observed, and body measurements (chest girth, body length and wither height) were taken. In total 63 Madura and 120 Madrasin records obtained. Linear model was built with cattle sub-populations and age as explanatory variables. Body weights were estimated based on the chest girth. Growth curves were built using logistic regression. Results showed that within the same age, Madrasin has significantly larger body compared to Madura (p<0.05). The logistic models fit better for Madura and Madrasin cattle data; with the estimated MSE for these models were 39.09 and 759.28 with prediction accuracy of 99 and 92% for Madura and Madrasin, respectively. Prediction of growth curve using logistic regression model performed well in both types of Madura cattle. However, attempts to administer accurate data on Madura cattle are necessary to better characterize and study these cattle.

Intercontinental convergence of stream fish community traits along geomorphic and hydraulic gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamouroux, N.; Poff, N.L.; Angermeier, P.L.

2002-01-01

Community convergence across biogeographically distinct regions suggests the existence of key, repeated, evolutionary mechanisms relating community characteristics to the environment. However, convergence studies at the community level often involve only qualitative comparisons of the environment and may fail to identify which environmental variables drive community structure. We tested the hypothesis that the biological traits of fish communities on two continents (Europe and North America) are similarly related to environmental conditions. Specifically, from observations of individual fish made at the microhabitat scale (a few square meters) within French streams, we generated habitat preference models linking traits of fish species to local scale hydraulic conditions (Froude number), Using this information, we then predicted how hydraulics and geomorphology at the larger scale of stream reaches (several pool-riffle sequences) should quantitatively influence the trait composition of fish communities. Trait composition for fishes in stream reaches with low Froude number at low flow or high proportion of pools was predicted as nonbenthic, large, fecund, long-lived, nonstreamlined, and weak swimmers. We tested our predictions in contrasting stream reaches in France (n = 11) and Virginia, USA (n = 76), using analyses of covariance to quantify the relative influence of continent vs. physical habitat variables on fish traits. The reach-scale convergence analysis indicated that trait proportions in the communities differed between continents (up to 55% of the variance in each trait was explained by "continent"), partly due to distinct evolutionary histories. However, within continents, trait proportions were comparably related to the hydraulic and geomorphic variables (up to 54% of the variance within continents explained). In particular, a synthetic measure of fish traits in reaches was well explained (50% of its variance) by the Froude number independently of the continent. The effect of physical variables did not differ across continents for most traits, confirming our predictions qualitatively and quantitatively. Therefore, despite phylogenetic and historical differences between continents, fish communities of France and Virginia exhibit convergence in biological traits related to hydraulics and geomorphology. This convergence reflects morphological and behavioral adaptations to physical stress in streams. This study supports the existence of a habitat template for ecological strategies. Some key quantitative variables that define this habitat template can be identified by characterizing how individual organisms use their physical environment, and by using dimensionless physical variables that reveal common energetic properties in different systems. Overall, quantitative tests of community convergence are efficient tools to demonstrate that some community traits are predictable from environmental features.

Debris-flow runout predictions based on the average channel slope (ACS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prochaska, A.B.; Santi, P.M.; Higgins, J.D.; Cannon, S.H.

2008-01-01

Prediction of the runout distance of a debris flow is an important element in the delineation of potentially hazardous areas on alluvial fans and for the siting of mitigation structures. Existing runout estimation methods rely on input parameters that are often difficult to estimate, including volume, velocity, and frictional factors. In order to provide a simple method for preliminary estimates of debris-flow runout distances, we developed a model that provides runout predictions based on the average channel slope (ACS model) for non-volcanic debris flows that emanate from confined channels and deposit on well-defined alluvial fans. This model was developed from 20 debris-flow events in the western United States and British Columbia. Based on a runout estimation method developed for snow avalanches, this model predicts debris-flow runout as an angle of reach from a fixed point in the drainage channel to the end of the runout zone. The best fixed point was found to be the mid-point elevation of the drainage channel, measured from the apex of the alluvial fan to the top of the drainage basin. Predicted runout lengths were more consistent than those obtained from existing angle-of-reach estimation methods. Results of the model compared well with those of laboratory flume tests performed using the same range of channel slopes. The robustness of this model was tested by applying it to three debris-flow events not used in its development: predicted runout ranged from 82 to 131% of the actual runout for these three events. Prediction interval multipliers were also developed so that the user may calculate predicted runout within specified confidence limits. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cascaded bidirectional recurrent neural networks for protein secondary structure prediction.

PubMed

Chen, Jinmiao; Chaudhari, Narendra

2007-01-01

Protein secondary structure (PSS) prediction is an important topic in bioinformatics. Our study on a large set of non-homologous proteins shows that long-range interactions commonly exist and negatively affect PSS prediction. Besides, we also reveal strong correlations between secondary structure (SS) elements. In order to take into account the long-range interactions and SS-SS correlations, we propose a novel prediction system based on cascaded bidirectional recurrent neural network (BRNN). We compare the cascaded BRNN against another two BRNN architectures, namely the original BRNN architecture used for speech recognition as well as Pollastri's BRNN that was proposed for PSS prediction. Our cascaded BRNN achieves an overall three state accuracy Q3 of 74.38\\%, and reaches a high Segment OVerlap (SOV) of 66.0455. It outperforms the original BRNN and Pollastri's BRNN in both Q3 and SOV. Specifically, it improves the SOV score by 4-6%.

Kinematic measures of Arm-trunk movements during unilateral and bilateral reaching predict clinically important change in perceived arm use in daily activities after intensive stroke rehabilitation.

PubMed

Chen, Hao-ling; Lin, Keh-chung; Liing, Rong-jiuan; Wu, Ching-yi; Chen, Chia-ling

2015-09-21

Kinematic analysis has been used to objectively evaluate movement patterns, quality, and strategies during reaching tasks. However, no study has investigated whether kinematic variables during unilateral and bilateral reaching tasks predict a patient's perceived arm use during activities of daily living (ADL) after an intensive intervention. Therefore, this study investigated whether kinematic measures during unilateral and bilateral reaching tasks before an intervention can predict clinically meaningful improvement in perceived arm use during ADL after intensive poststroke rehabilitation. The study was a secondary analysis of 120 subjects with chronic stroke who received 90-120 min of intensive intervention every weekday for 3-4 weeks. Reaching kinematics during unilateral and bilateral tasks and the Motor Activity Log (MAL) were evaluated before and after the intervention. Kinematic variables explained 22 and 11 % of the variance in actual amount of use (AOU) and quality of movement (QOM), respectively, of MAL improvement during unilateral reaching tasks. Kinematic variables also explained 21 and 31 % of the variance in MAL-AOU and MAL-QOM, respectively, during bilateral reaching tasks. Selected kinematic variables, including endpoint variables, trunk involvement, and joint recruitment and interjoint coordination, were significant predictors for improvement in perceived arm use during ADL (P < 0.05). Arm-trunk kinematics may be used to predict clinically meaningful improvement in perceived arm use during ADL after intensive rehabilitation. Involvement of interjoint coordination and trunk control variables as predictors in bilateral reaching models indicates that a high level of motor control (i.e., multijoint coordination) and trunk stability may be important in obtaining treatment gains in arm use, especially for bilateral daily activities, in intensive rehabilitation after stroke.

Tests and comparisons of gravity models.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, J. G.; Douglas, B. C.

1971-01-01

Optical observations of the GEOS satellites were used to obtain orbital solutions with different sets of geopotential coefficients. The solutions were compared before and after modification to high order terms (necessary because of resonance) and were then analyzed by comparing subsequent observations with predicted trajectories. The most important source of error in orbit determination and prediction for the GEOS satellites is the effect of resonance found in most published sets of geopotential coefficients. Modifications to the sets yield greatly improved orbits in most cases. The results of these comparisons suggest that with the best optical tracking systems and gravity models, satellite position error due to gravity model uncertainty can reach 50-100 m during a heavily observed 5-6 day orbital arc. If resonant coefficients are estimated, the uncertainty is reduced considerably.

Analysis of delamination related fracture processes in composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armanios, Erian A.

1992-01-01

This is a final report that summarizes the results achieved under this grant. The first major accomplishment is the development of the sublaminate modeling approach and shear deformation theory. The sublaminate approach allows the flexibility of considering one ply or groups of plies as a single laminated unit with effective properties. This approach is valid when the characteristic length of the response is small compared to the sublaminate thickness. The sublaminate approach was validated comparing its predictions with a finite element solution. A shear deformation theory represents an optimum compromise between accuracy and computational effort in delamination analysis of laminated composites. This conclusion was reached by applying several theories with increasing level of complexity to the prediction of interlaminar stresses and strain energy release rate in a double cracked-lap-shear configuration.

The diagnostic accuracy of physical examination compared to lung ultrasound for determining lung congestion in hemodialysis patients who have reached their dry weight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahardjo, K. D.; Dharmaeizar; Nainggolan, G.; Harimurti, K.

2017-08-01

Research has shown that hemodialysis patients with lung congestion have high morbidity and mortality. Patients were assumed to be free of lung congestion if they had reached their post-dialysis dry weight. Most often, to determine if the patient was free of lung congestion, physical examination was used. However, the accuracy of physical examination in detecting lung congestion has not been established. To compare the capabilities of physical examination and lung ultrasound in detection of lung congestion, cross-sectional data collection was conducted on hemodialysis patients. Analysis was done to obtain proportion, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and positive likelihood ratio. Sixty patients participated in this study. The inter observer variation of 20 patients revealed a kappa value of 0.828. When all 60 patients were taken into account, we found that 36 patients (57.1%) had lung congestion. Mild lung congestion was found in 24 (38.1%), and 12 (19%) had a moderate degree of congestion. In the analysis comparing jugular venous pressure to lung ultrasound, we found that sensitivity was 0.47 (0.31-0.63), specificity was 0.73 (0.54-0.86), positive predictive value (PPV) was 0.51 (0.36-0.67), negative predictive value (NPV) was 0.70 (0.49-0.84), positive likelihood ratio (PLR) was 1.75 (0.88-3.47), and the negative likelihood ratio (NLR) was 0.72 (0.47-1.12). In terms of lung auscultation, we found that sensitivity was 0.56 (0.39-0.71), specificity was 0.54 (0.35-0.71), PPV was 0.61 (0.44-0.76), NPV was 0.48 (0.31-0.66), PLR was 1.21 (0.73-2.0), and NLR was 0.82 (0.49-1.38). The results of our study showed that jugular venous distention and lung auscultation examination are not reliable means of detecting lung congestion.

Assessment of the potential human health risks from exposure to complex substances in accordance with REACH requirements. "White spirit" as a case study.

PubMed

McKee, Richard H; Tibaldi, Rosalie; Adenuga, Moyinoluwa D; Carrillo, Juan-Carlos; Margary, Alison

2018-02-01

The European chemical control regulation (REACH) requires that data on physical/chemical, toxicological and environmental hazards be compiled. Additionally, REACH requires formal assessments to ensure that substances can be safely used for their intended purposes. For health hazard assessments, reference values (Derived No Effect levels, DNELs) are calculated from toxicology data and compared to estimated exposure levels. If the ratio of the predicted exposure level to the DNEL, i.e. the Risk Characterization Ratio (RCR), is less than 1, the risk is considered controlled; otherwise, additional Risk Management Measures (RMM) must be applied. These requirements pose particular challenges for complex substances. Herein, "white spirit", a complex hydrocarbon solvent, is used as an example to illustrate how these procedures were applied. Hydrocarbon solvents were divided into categories of similar substances. Representative substances were identified for DNEL determinations. Adjustment factors were applied to the no effect levels to calculate the DNELs. Exposure assessments utilized a standardized set of generic exposure scenarios (GES) which incorporated exposure predictions for solvent handling activities. Computer-based tools were developed to automate RCR calculations and identify appropriate RMMs, allowing consistent communications to users via safety data sheets. Copyright © 2017 ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring and predicting the emission rate of phthalate plasticizer from vinyl flooring in a specially-designed chamber.

PubMed

Xu, Ying; Liu, Zhe; Park, Jinsoo; Clausen, Per A; Benning, Jennifer L; Little, John C

2012-11-20

The emission of di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) from vinyl flooring (VF) was measured in specially designed stainless steel chambers. In duplicate chamber studies, the gas-phase concentration in the chamber increased slowly and reached a steady state level of 0.8-0.9 μg/m(3) after about 20 days. By increasing the area of vinyl flooring and decreasing that of the stainless steel surface within the chamber, the time to reach steady state was significantly reduced, compared to a previous study (1 month versus 5 months). The adsorption isotherm of DEHP on the stainless steel chamber surfaces was explicitly measured using solvent extraction and thermal desorption. The strong partitioning of DEHP onto the stainless steel surface was found to follow a simple linear relationship. Thermal desorption resulted in higher recovery than solvent extraction. Investigation of sorption kinetics showed that it takes several weeks for the sorption of DEHP onto the stainless steel surface to reach equilibrium. The content of DEHP in VF was measured at about 15% (w/w) using pressurized liquid extraction. The independently measured or calculated parameters were used to validate an SVOC emission model, with excellent agreement between model prediction and the observed gas-phase DEHP chamber concentrations.

Spiders and subsidies: results from the riparian zone of a coastal temperate rainforest.

PubMed

Marczak, Laurie B; Richardson, John S

2007-07-01

1. Aquatic insects emerging from streams can provide an important energy subsidy to recipient consumers such as riparian web-building spiders. This subsidy has been hypothesized to be of little importance where the primary productivity of the recipient habitat exceeds that of the donor habitat. 2. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated emerging stream insect abundance in a productive riparian rainforest in a replicated design using greenhouse-type exclosures, contrasted with unmanipulated stream reaches (four exclosures on two streams). 3. Experimental exclosures resulted in a 62.9% decrease in aquatic insect abundance in exclusion reaches compared with control reaches. The overall density of riparian spiders was significantly positively correlated with aquatic insect abundances. Horizontal orb weavers (Tetragnathidae) showed a strong response to aquatic insect reduction - abundance at exclosure sites was 57% lower than at control sites. Several spider families that have not been associated with tracking aquatic insect subsidies also showed significantly decreased abundance when aquatic insects were reduced. 4. This result is contrary to predictions of weak subsidy effects where recipient net primary productivity is high. These results suggest that predicting the importance of resource subsidies for food webs requires a focus on the relative abundance of subsidy materials in recipient and donor habitats and not simply on the total flux of energy between systems.

Low-flow traveltime, longitudinal-dispersion, and reaeration characteristics of the Souris River from Lake Darling Dam to J Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuge, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesolowski, E.A.; Nelson, R.A.

1987-01-01

As part of the Sour is River water-quality assessment, traveltime, longitudinal-dispersion, and reaeration measurements were made during September 1983 on segments of the 186-mile reach of the Sour is River from Lake Darling Dam to the J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuge. The primary objective was to determine traveltime, longitudinal-dispersion, and reaeration coefficients during low flow. Streamflow in the reach ranged from 10.5 to 47.0 cubic feet per second during the measurement period.On the basis of channel and hydraulic characteristics, the 186-mile reach was subdivided into five subreaches that ranged from 18 to 55 river miles in length. Within each subreach, representative test reaches that ranged from 5.0 to 9.1 river miles in length were selected for tracer injection and sample collection. Standard fluorometric techniques were used to measure traveltime and longitudinal dispersion, and a modified tracer technique that used ethylene and propane gas was used to measure reaeration. Mean test-reach velocities ranged from 0.05 to 0.30 foot per second, longitudinal-dispersion coefficients ranged from 4.2 to 61 square feet per second, and reaeration coefficients based on propane ranged from 0.39 to 1.66 per day. Predictive reaeration coefficients obtained from 18 equations (8 semiempirical and 10 empirical) were compared with each measured reaeration coefficient by use of an error-of-estimate analysis. The predictive reaeration coefficients ranged from 0.0008 to 3.4 per day. A semiempirical equation that produced coefficients most similar to the measured coefficients had the smallest absolute error of estimate (0.35). The smallest absolute error of estimate for the empirical equations was 0.41.

An asymptotic theory of supersonic propeller noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Edmane

1992-01-01

A theory for predicting the noise field of supersonic propellers with realistic blade geometries is presented. The theory, which utilizes a large-blade-count approximation, provides an efficient formula for predicting the radiation of sound from all three sources of propeller noise. Comparisons with a full numerical integration indicate that the levels predicted by this formula are quite accurate. Calculations also show that, for high speed propellers, the noise radiated by the Lighthill quadrupole source is rather substantial when compared with the noise radiated by the blade thickness and loading sources. Results from a preliminary application of the theory indicate that the peak noise level generated by a supersonic propeller initially increases with increasing tip helical Mach number, but is eventually reaches a plateau and does not increase further. The predicted trend shows qualitative agreement with the experimental observations.

Patch occupancy of stream fauna across a land cover gradient in the southern Appalachians, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frisch, John R.; Peterson, James T.; Cecala, Kristen K.; Maerz, John C.; Jackson, C. Rhett; Gragson, Ted L.; Pringle, Catherine M.

2016-01-01

We modeled patch occupancy to examine factors that best predicted the prevalence of four functionally important focal stream consumers (Tallaperla spp., Cambarus spp.,Pleurocera proxima, and Cottus bairdi) among 37 reaches within the Little Tennessee River basin of the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. We compared 34 models of patch occupancy to examine the association of catchment and reach scale factors that varied as a result of converting forest to agricultural or urban land use. Occupancy of our taxa was linked to parameters reflecting both catchment and reach extent characteristics. At the catchment level, forest cover or its conversion to agriculture was a major determinant of occupancy for all four taxa. Patch occupancies of Tallaperla, Cambarus, and C. bairdi were positively, and Pleurocera negatively, correlated with forest cover. Secondarily at the reach level, local availability of large woody debris was important forCambarus, availability of large cobble substrate was important for C. bairdi, and stream calcium concentration was important for P. proxima. Our results show the abundance of stream organisms was determined by the taxon-dependent interplay between catchment- and reach-level factors.

Regulation causes nitrogen cycling discontinuities in Mediterranean rivers.

PubMed

von Schiller, Daniel; Aristi, Ibon; Ponsatí, Lídia; Arroita, Maite; Acuña, Vicenç; Elosegi, Arturo; Sabater, Sergi

2016-01-01

River regulation has fundamentally altered large sections of the world's river networks. The effects of dams on the structural properties of downstream reaches are well documented, but less is known about their effect on river ecosystem processes. We investigated the effect of dams on river nutrient cycling by comparing net uptake of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), phosphorus (TDP) and organic carbon (DOC) in river reaches located upstream and downstream from three reservoir systems in the Ebro River basin (NE Iberian Peninsula). Increased hydromorphological stability, organic matter standing stocks and ecosystem metabolism below dams enhanced the whole-reach net uptake of TDN, but not that of TDP or DOC. Upstream from dams, river reaches tended to be at biogeochemical equilibrium (uptake≈release) for all nutrients, whereas river reaches below dams acted as net sinks of TDN. Overall, our results suggest that flow regulation by dams may cause relevant N cycling discontinuities in rivers. Higher net N uptake capacity below dams could lead to reduced N export to downstream ecosystems. Incorporating these discontinuities could significantly improve predictive models of N cycling and transport in complex river networks. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Concepts Within Reach: Action Performance Predicts Action Language Processing in Stroke

PubMed Central

Desai, Rutvik H.; Herter, Troy; Riccardi, Nicholas; Rorden, Chris; Fridriksson, Julius

2015-01-01

The relationship between the brain’s conceptual or semantic and sensory-motor systems remains controversial. Here, we tested manual and conceptual abilities of 41 chronic stroke patients in order to examine their relationship. Manual abilities were assed through a reaching task using an exoskeleton robot. Semantic abilities were assessed with implicit as well as explicit semantic tasks, for both verbs and nouns. The results show that that the degree of selective impairment for action word processing was predicted by the degree of impairment in reaching performance. Moreover, the implicit semantic measures showed a correlation with a global reaching parameter, while the explicit semantic similarity judgment task predicted performance in action initiation. These results indicate that action concepts are dynamically grounded through motoric simulations, and that more details are simulated for more explicit semantic tasks. This is evidence for a close and causal relationship between sensory-motor and conceptual systems of the brain. PMID:25858602

Extracting physicochemical features to predict protein secondary structure.

PubMed

Huang, Yin-Fu; Chen, Shu-Ying

2013-01-01

We propose a protein secondary structure prediction method based on position-specific scoring matrix (PSSM) profiles and four physicochemical features including conformation parameters, net charges, hydrophobic, and side chain mass. First, the SVM with the optimal window size and the optimal parameters of the kernel function is found. Then, we train the SVM using the PSSM profiles generated from PSI-BLAST and the physicochemical features extracted from the CB513 data set. Finally, we use the filter to refine the predicted results from the trained SVM. For all the performance measures of our method, Q 3 reaches 79.52, SOV94 reaches 86.10, and SOV99 reaches 74.60; all the measures are higher than those of the SVMpsi method and the SVMfreq method. This validates that considering these physicochemical features in predicting protein secondary structure would exhibit better performances.

Extracting Physicochemical Features to Predict Protein Secondary Structure

PubMed Central

Chen, Shu-Ying

2013-01-01

We propose a protein secondary structure prediction method based on position-specific scoring matrix (PSSM) profiles and four physicochemical features including conformation parameters, net charges, hydrophobic, and side chain mass. First, the SVM with the optimal window size and the optimal parameters of the kernel function is found. Then, we train the SVM using the PSSM profiles generated from PSI-BLAST and the physicochemical features extracted from the CB513 data set. Finally, we use the filter to refine the predicted results from the trained SVM. For all the performance measures of our method, Q 3 reaches 79.52, SOV94 reaches 86.10, and SOV99 reaches 74.60; all the measures are higher than those of the SVMpsi method and the SVMfreq method. This validates that considering these physicochemical features in predicting protein secondary structure would exhibit better performances. PMID:23766688

Effects of air-sea interaction on extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the northern extratropical region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xujia; Zheng, Zhihai; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

The contribution of air-sea interaction on the extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa in the northern extratropical region has been analyzed with a coupled model form Beijing Climate Center and its atmospheric components. Under the assumption of the perfect model, the extended-range prediction skill was evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root mean square error (RMSE), and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The coupled model has a better prediction skill than its atmospheric model, especially, the air-sea interaction in July made a greater contribution for the improvement of prediction skill than other months. The prediction skill of the extratropical region in the coupled model reaches 16-18 days in all months, while the atmospheric model reaches 10-11 days in January, April, and July and only 7-8 days in October, indicating that the air-sea interaction can extend the prediction skill of the atmospheric model by about 1 week. The errors of both the coupled model and the atmospheric model reach saturation in about 20 days, suggesting that the predictable range is less than 3 weeks.

Predicting Brook Trout occurrence in stream reaches throughout their native range in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell; Wagner, Tyler

2015-01-01

The Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis is an important species of conservation concern in the eastern USA. We developed a model to predict Brook Trout population status within individual stream reaches throughout the species’ native range in the eastern USA. We utilized hierarchical logistic regression with Bayesian estimation to predict Brook Trout occurrence probability, and we allowed slopes and intercepts to vary among ecological drainage units (EDUs). Model performance was similar for 7,327 training samples and 1,832 validation samples based on the area under the receiver operating curve (∼0.78) and Cohen's kappa statistic (0.44). Predicted water temperature had a strong negative effect on Brook Trout occurrence probability at the stream reach scale and was also negatively associated with the EDU average probability of Brook Trout occurrence (i.e., EDU-specific intercepts). The effect of soil permeability was positive but decreased as EDU mean soil permeability increased. Brook Trout were less likely to occur in stream reaches surrounded by agricultural or developed land cover, and an interaction suggested that agricultural land cover also resulted in an increased sensitivity to water temperature. Our model provides a further understanding of how Brook Trout are shaped by habitat characteristics in the region and yields maps of stream-reach-scale predictions, which together can be used to support ongoing conservation and management efforts. These decision support tools can be used to identify the extent of potentially suitable habitat, estimate historic habitat losses, and prioritize conservation efforts by selecting suitable stream reaches for a given action. Future work could extend the model to account for additional landscape or habitat characteristics, include biotic interactions, or estimate potential Brook Trout responses to climate and land use changes.

Clinical Characteristics of Spinal Levobupivacaine: Hyperbaric Compared with Isobaric Solution

PubMed Central

Sanansilp, Vimolluck; Trivate, Travuth; Chompubai, Phakaporn; Visalyaputra, Shusee; Suksopee, Pattipa; Permpolprasert, Ladda; von Bormann, Benno

2012-01-01

We performed a prospective, double-blinded study in 20 patients undergoing gynecologic surgery with lower abdominal incision, to investigate characteristics of intrathecal hyperbaric levobupivacaine compared with isobaric levobupivacaine. We randomly assigned them to receive 3 mL of either isobaric or hyperbaric 0.42% levobupivacaine intrathecally. We found that hyperbaric levobupivacaine, compared with isobaric levobupivacaine, spread faster to T10 level (2.8 ± 1.1 versus 6.6 ± 4.7 minutes, P = 0.039), reached higher sensory block levels at 5 and 15 minutes after injection (T8 versus L1, P = 0.011, and T4 versus T7, P = 0.027, resp.), and had a higher peak level (T4 versus T8, P = 0.040). Isobaric levobupivacaine caused a wider range of peak levels (L1 to C8) compared with hyperbaric form (T7 to T2). The level of T4 or higher reached 90% in the hyperbaric group compared with 20% in the isobaric group (P = 0.005). Our results suggest that hyperbaric levobupivacaine was more predictable for sensory block level and more effective for surgical procedures with lower abdominal approach. Hyperbaric levobupivacaine seems to be suitable, but the optimal dosage needs further investigation. PMID:22619612

Use of Ground-water Temperature Patterns to Determine the Hydraulic Conductance of the Streambed Along the Middle Reaches of the Russian River, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, G. W.; Constantz, J.; Jasperse, J.; Seymour, D.

2002-12-01

Along the Russian River in Sonoma County, the alluvial aquifer is the preferred source of drinking water because sediments and other constituents in the river water would require additional treatment. From late spring to early winter, an inflatable dam is erected to raise the river stage and passively recharge the alluvial aquifer. The raised stage also permits diversion of river water to a series of recharge ponds located near the dam along the river. Improved understanding of stream exchanges with ground water is needed to better manage available water resources. Heat is used as a tracer of shallow ground-water movement for detailed hydraulic parameter estimation along the middle reaches of the river. Water-levels and ground-water temperatures were measured in a series of observations wells and compared to the river stage and surface-water temperatures. Hydraulic conductivities were predicted by optimizing simulated ground-water temperatures using VS2DHI, a heat and water transport model, to observed temperatures in the aquifer. These conductivity values will be used in a stream/ground-water model of this region being developed using MODFLOW. Temperature-based estimates of streambed conductance will be inserted in the STREAM package of the model to constrain this parameter. Although temperature-based predictions of hydraulic conductivity vary significantly along the reach, the results generally suggest that an anisotropy of 5 to 1 (horizontal to vertical) provides the best hydraulic conductivity matches for predicted versus observed ground-water temperatures.

Substrate and flow characteristics associated with White Sturgeon recruitment in the Columbia River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Parsley, Michael; Barton, Gary; Batt, Thomas; Fosness, Ryan L.

2018-01-01

A study was conducted to identify habitat characteristics associated with age 0+ White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus Richardson, 1863) recruitment in three reaches of the Columbia River Basin: Skamania reach (consistent recruitment), John Day reach (intermittent/inconsistent recruitment), and Kootenai reach (no recruitment). Our modeling approach involved numerous steps. First, we collected information about substrate, embeddedness, and hydrodynamics in each reach. Second, we developed a set of spatially explicit predictor variables. Third, we built two habitat (probability) models with Skamania reach training data where White Sturgeon recruitment was consistent. Fourth, we created spawning maps of each reach by populating the habitat models with in-reach physical metrics (substrate, embeddedness, and hydrodynamics). Fifth, we examined model accuracy by overlaying spawning locations in Skamania and Kootenai reaches with habitat predictions obtained from probability models. Sixth, we simulated how predicted habitat changed in each reach after manipulating physical conditions to more closely match Skamania reach. Model verification confirmed White Sturgeon generally spawned in locations with higher model probabilities in Skamania and Kootenai reaches, indicating the utility of extrapolating the models. Model simulations revealed significant gains in White Sturgeon habitat in all reaches when spring flow increased, gravel/cobble composition increased, or embeddedness decreased. The habitat models appear well suited to assist managers when identifying reach-specific factors limiting White Sturgeon recruitment in the Columbia River Basin or throughout its range.

IRIS II Study: Sensitivity and specificity of intact proinsulin, adiponectin, and the proinsulin/adiponectin ratio as markers for insulin resistance.

PubMed

Langenfeld, Matthias R; Forst, Thomas; Standl, Eberhard; Strotmann, Hermann-Josef; Lübben, Georg; Pahler, Sabine; Kann, Peter; Pfützner, Andreas

2004-12-01

This study was performed to compare the specificity and sensitivity of intact proinsulin, adiponectin, and their ratio (proinsulin/adiponectin) in the prediction of insulin resistance as assessed by the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) score (> or =2 = resistant). Using a cross-sectional approach, 500 orally treated patients with type 2 diabetes (272 women, 238 men; mean +/- SD age, 64.8 +/- 11.6 years; hemoglobin A1c, 7.0 +/- 1.5%; disease duration, 5.8 +/- 6.1 years) were investigated. Various cutoffs for body mass index-adjusted adiponectin and proinsulin/adiponectin were compared with the established cutoff value of 10 pmol/L for fasting proinsulin. Fasting proinsulin correlated more closely with the HOMA score (r = 0.560, P < 0.001) than fasting adiponectin (r = -0.204, P < 0.001) or proinsulin/adiponectin (r = 0.355, P < 0.001). For proinsulin, specificity and sensitivity for insulin resistance in correlation to the HOMA score results were 96% and 70%, respectively. At a comparable specificity level to proinsulin, adiponectin did not reach a comparable sensitivity (14%), while the proinsulin/adiponectin ratio almost reached the same sensitivity (65%). Overall, patients with elevated proinsulin had a higher prevalence of micro- and macrovascular disease [odds ratio 1.47 (adiponectin, 1.08; proinsulin/ adiponectin, 1.48) and 1.34 (adiponectin, 1.32; proinsulin/adiponectin, 1.27), respectively]. Elevation of fasting intact proinsulin seems to be the more specific marker for insulin resistance and increased cardiovascular risk than suppression of fasting adiponectin. Formation of the ratio does not lead to a further increase in the predictive value.

Predicting rapid analgesic onset of ibuprofen salts compared with ibuprofen acid: Tlag, Tlow, Tmed, and a novel parameter, TCmaxRef.

PubMed

Miles, Lisa; Hall, Jessica; Jenner, Bartosz; Addis, Richard; Hutchings, Simon

2018-04-27

This study evaluated the early absorption characteristics of ibuprofen salt formulations and standard ibuprofen acid (the reference). In this open-label, crossover, single-center study (NCT02452450) in 32 healthy, fasted adults receiving single oral doses (400 mg ibuprofen) of ibuprofen lysine, ibuprofen liquid capsule, ibuprofen sodium, ibuprofen acid, and paracetamol, intensive blood sampling was conducted for up to 6 h. Time between dosing and the start of absorption (T lag ); a novel parameter, time at which the test formulations (ibuprofen salts) reached the observed maximum plasma concentration (C max ) of the reference (standard ibuprofen acid) (T C maxRef ); and time to achieve therapeutic plasma concentration were measured. Ibuprofen was absorbed more rapidly from the salt formulations than the reference; T lag was 3.3-6.4 min for salt formulations compared with 10.9 min for the reference, and 100% of subjects had a T lag ≤ 5 min for ibuprofen lysine, compared with 61% for ibuprofen liquid capsule, 21% for ibuprofen sodium, and 7% for the reference. T C maxRef was 3.22-5.74-times shorter for salt formulations than for the reference (all p < .0001). The salt formulations reached therapeutic levels earlier than the reference (all p < .0001). All formulations were well tolerated. This study shows that ibuprofen salts are absorbed faster than ibuprofen acid. T lag and T C maxRef demonstrated early start and increased speed of absorption of salts compared with the reference, and may predict more rapid onset of analgesia.

Feasibility of dynamic risk prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

PubMed

Jeon, Mi Young; Lee, Hye Won; Kim, Seung Up; Kim, Beom Kyung; Park, Jun Yong; Kim, Do Young; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Ahn, Sang Hoon

2018-04-01

Several risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are available. We explored whether the use of risk prediction models can dynamically predict HCC development at different time points in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Between 2006 and 2014, 1397 CHB patients were recruited. All patients underwent serial transient elastography at intervals of >6 months. The median age of this study population (931 males and 466 females) was 49.0 years. The median CU-HCC, REACH-B, LSM-HCC and mREACH-B score at enrolment were 4.0, 9.0, 10.0 and 8.0 respectively. During the follow-up period (median, 68.0 months), 87 (6.2%) patients developed HCC. All risk prediction models were successful in predicting HCC development at both the first liver stiffness (LS) measurement (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.067-1.467 in the subgroup without antiviral therapy [AVT] and 1.096-1.458 in the subgroup with AVT) and second LS measurement (HR = 1.125-1.448 in the subgroup without AVT and 1.087-1.249 in the subgroup with AVT). In contrast, neither the absolute nor percentage change in the scores from the risk prediction models predicted HCC development (all P > .05). The mREACH-B score performed similarly or significantly better than did the other scores (AUROCs at 5 years, 0.694-0.862 vs 0.537-0.875). Dynamic prediction of HCC development at different time points was achieved using four risk prediction models, but not using the changes in the absolute and percentage values between two time points. The mREACH-B score was the most appropriate prediction model of HCC development among four prediction models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NASA-Langley Research Center's participation in a round-robin comparison between some current crack-propagation prediction methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudson, C. M.; Lewis, P. E.

1979-01-01

A round-robin study was conducted which evaluated and compared different methods currently in practice for predicting crack growth in surface-cracked specimens. This report describes the prediction methods used by the Fracture Mechanics Engineering Section, at NASA-Langley Research Center, and presents a comparison between predicted crack growth and crack growth observed in laboratory experiments. For tests at higher stress levels, the correlation between predicted and experimentally determined crack growth was generally quite good. For tests at lower stress levels, the predicted number of cycles to reach a given crack length was consistently higher than the experimentally determined number of cycles. This consistent overestimation of the number of cycles could have resulted from a lack of definition of crack-growth data at low values of the stress intensity range. Generally, the predicted critical flaw sizes were smaller than the experimentally determined critical flaw sizes. This underestimation probably resulted from using plane-strain fracture toughness values to predict failure rather than the more appropriate values based on maximum load.

Improving prediction of heart transplantation outcome using deep learning techniques.

PubMed

Medved, Dennis; Ohlsson, Mattias; Höglund, Peter; Andersson, Bodil; Nugues, Pierre; Nilsson, Johan

2018-02-26

The primary objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of two risk models, International Heart Transplantation Survival Algorithm (IHTSA), developed using deep learning technique, and Index for Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Transplantation (IMPACT), to predict survival after heart transplantation. Data from adult heart transplanted patients between January 1997 to December 2011 were collected from the UNOS registry. The study included 27,860 heart transplantations, corresponding to 27,705 patients. The study cohorts were divided into patients transplanted before 2009 (derivation cohort) and from 2009 (test cohort). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values, for the validation cohort, computed for one-year mortality, were 0.654 (95% CI: 0.629-0.679) for IHTSA and 0.608 (0.583-0.634) for the IMPACT model. The discrimination reached a C-index for long-term survival of 0.627 (0.608-0.646) for IHTSA, compared with 0.584 (0.564-0.605) for the IMPACT model. These figures correspond to an error reduction of 12% for ROC and 10% for C-index by using deep learning technique. The predicted one-year mortality rates for were 12% and 22% for IHTSA and IMPACT, respectively, versus an actual mortality rate of 10%. The IHTSA model showed superior discriminatory power to predict one-year mortality and survival over time after heart transplantation compared to the IMPACT model.

Freezing in stripe states for kinetic Ising models: a comparative study of three dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godrèche, Claude; Pleimling, Michel

2018-04-01

We present a comparative study of the fate of an Ising ferromagnet on the square lattice with periodic boundary conditions evolving under three different zero-temperature dynamics. The first one is Glauber dynamics, the two other dynamics correspond to two limits of the directed Ising model, defined by rules that break the full symmetry of the former, yet sharing the same Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution at stationarity. In one of these limits the directed Ising model is reversible, in the other one it is irreversible. For the kinetic Ising-Glauber model, several recent studies have demonstrated the role of critical percolation to predict the probabilities for the system to reach the ground state or to fall in a metastable state. We investigate to what extent the predictions coming from critical percolation still apply to the two other dynamics.

Predictive Trip Detection for Nuclear Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rankin, Drew J.; Jiang, Jin

2016-08-01

This paper investigates the use of a Kalman filter (KF) to predict, within the shutdown system (SDS) of a nuclear power plant (NPP), whether safety parameter measurements have reached a trip set-point. In addition, least squares (LS) estimation compensates for prediction error due to system-model mismatch. The motivation behind predictive shutdown is to reduce the amount of time between the occurrence of a fault or failure and the time of trip detection, referred to as time-to-trip. These reductions in time-to-trip can ultimately lead to increases in safety and productivity margins. The proposed predictive SDS differs from conventional SDSs in that it compares point-predictions of the measurements, rather than sensor measurements, against trip set-points. The predictive SDS is validated through simulation and experiments for the steam generator water level safety parameter. Performance of the proposed predictive SDS is compared against benchmark conventional SDS with respect to time-to-trip. In addition, this paper analyzes: prediction uncertainty, as well as; the conditions under which it is possible to achieve reduced time-to-trip. Simulation results demonstrate that on average the predictive SDS reduces time-to-trip by an amount of time equal to the length of the prediction horizon and that the distribution of times-to-trip is approximately Gaussian. Experimental results reveal that a reduced time-to-trip can be achieved in a real-world system with unknown system-model mismatch and that the predictive SDS can be implemented with a scan time of under 100ms. Thus, this paper is a proof of concept for KF/LS-based predictive trip detection.

Motor cortex guides selection of predictable movement targets

PubMed Central

Woodgate, Philip J.W.; Strauss, Soeren; Sami, Saber A.; Heinke, Dietmar

2016-01-01

The present paper asks whether the motor cortex contributes to prediction-based guidance of target selection. This question was inspired by recent evidence that suggests (i) recurrent connections from the motor system into the attentional system may extract movement-relevant perceptual information and (ii) that the motor cortex cannot only generate predictions of the sensory consequences of movements but may also operate as predictor of perceptual events in general. To test this idea we employed a choice reaching task requiring participants to rapidly reach and touch a predictable or unpredictable colour target. Motor cortex activity was modulated via transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS). In Experiment 1 target colour repetitions were predictable. Under such conditions anodal tDCS facilitated selection versus sham and cathodal tDCS. This improvement was apparent for trajectory curvature but not movement initiation. Conversely, where no predictability of colour was embedded reach performance was unaffected by tDCS. Finally, the results of a key-press experiment suggested that motor cortex involvement is restricted to tasks where the predictable target colour is movement-relevant. The outcomes are interpreted as evidence that the motor system contributes to the top-down guidance of selective attention to movement targets. PMID:25835319

Impact of predictive model-directed end-of-life counseling for Medicare beneficiaries.

PubMed

Hamlet, Karen S; Hobgood, Adam; Hamar, Guy Brent; Dobbs, Angela C; Rula, Elizabeth Y; Pope, James E

2010-05-01

To validate a predictive model for identifying Medicare beneficiaries who need end-of-life care planning and to determine the impact on cost and hospice care of a telephonic counseling program utilizing this predictive model in 2 Medicare Health Support (MHS) pilots. Secondary analysis of data from 2 MHS pilot programs that used a randomized controlled design. A predictive model was developed using intervention group data (N = 43,497) to identify individuals at greatest risk of death. Model output guided delivery of a telephonic intervention designed to support educated end-of-life decisions and improve end-of-life provisions. Control group participants received usual care. As a primary outcome, Medicare costs in the last 6 months of life were compared between intervention group decedents (n = 3112) and control group decedents (n = 1630). Hospice admission rates and duration of hospice care were compared as secondary measures. The predictive model was highly accurate, and more than 80% of intervention group decedents were contacted during the 12 months before death. Average Medicare costs were $1913 lower for intervention group decedents compared with control group decedents in the last 6 months of life (P = .05), for a total savings of $5.95 million. There were no significant changes in hospice admissions or mean duration of hospice care. Telephonic end-of-life counseling provided as an ancillary Medicare service, guided by a predictive model, can reach a majority of individuals needing support and can reduce costs by facilitating voluntary election of less intensive care.

The predictive power of physical function assessed by questionnaire and physical performance measures for subsequent disability.

PubMed

Hoshi, Masayuki; Hozawa, Atsushi; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Nakaya, Naoki; Ohmori-Matsuda, Kaori; Sone, Toshimasa; Kakizaki, Masako; Niu, Kaijun; Fujita, Kazuki; Ueki, Shouzoh; Haga, Hiroshi; Nagatomi, Ryoichi; Tsuji, Ichiro

2012-08-01

To compare the predictive power of physical function assessed by questionnaire and physical performance measures for subsequent disability in community-dwelling elderly persons. Prospective cohort study. Participants were 813 aged 70 years and older, elderly Japanese residing in the community, included in the Tsurugaya Project, who were not disabled at the baseline in 2003. Physical function was assessed by the questionnaire of "Motor Fitness Scale". Physical performance measures consisted of maximum walking velocity, timed up and go test (TUG), leg extension power, and functional reach test. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for disability was used to compare screening accuracy between Motor Fitness Scale and physical performance measures. Incident disability, defined as certification for long-term care insurance, was used as the endpoint. We observed 135 cases of incident disability during follow-up. The third or fourth quartile for each measure was associated with a significantly increased risk of disability in comparison with the highest quartile. The AUC was 0.70, 0.72, 0.70, 0.68, 0.69 and 0.74, for Motor Fitness Scale, maxi- mum walking velocity, TUG, leg extension power, functional reach test, and total performance score, respectively. The predictive power of physical function assessed by the Motor Fitness Scale was equivalent to that assessed by physical performance measures. Since Motor Fitness Scale can evaluate physical function safely and simply in comparison with physical performance tests, it would be a practical tool for screening persons at high risk of disability.

Predicting locations of rare aquatic species’ habitat with a combination of species-specific and assemblage-based models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.; Carlson, Douglas M.; Payne-Wynne, Molly L.

2013-01-01

Aim: Rare aquatic species are a substantial component of biodiversity, and their conservation is a major objective of many management plans. However, they are difficult to assess, and their optimal habitats are often poorly known. Methods to effectively predict the likely locations of suitable rare aquatic species habitats are needed. We combine two modelling approaches to predict occurrence and general abundance of several rare fish species. Location: Allegheny watershed of western New York State (USA) Methods: Our method used two empirical neural network modelling approaches (species specific and assemblage based) to predict stream-by-stream occurrence and general abundance of rare darters, based on broad-scale habitat conditions. Species-specific models were developed for longhead darter (Percina macrocephala), spotted darter (Etheostoma maculatum) and variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) in the Allegheny drainage. An additional model predicted the type of rare darter-containing assemblage expected in each stream reach. Predictions from both models were then combined inclusively and exclusively and compared with additional independent data. Results Example rare darter predictions demonstrate the method's effectiveness. Models performed well (R2 ≥ 0.79), identified where suitable darter habitat was most likely to occur, and predictions matched well to those of collection sites. Additional independent data showed that the most conservative (exclusive) model slightly underestimated the distributions of these rare darters or predictions were displaced by one stream reach, suggesting that new darter habitat types were detected in the later collections. Main conclusions Broad-scale habitat variables can be used to effectively identify rare species' habitats. Combining species-specific and assemblage-based models enhances our ability to make use of the sparse data on rare species and to identify habitat units most likely and least likely to support those species. This hybrid approach may assist managers with the prioritization of habitats to be examined or conserved for rare species.

Observations of debris flows at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA: Part 2, changes in surface morphometry from terrestrial laser scanning in the summer of 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Wasklewicz, Thad A.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Kean, Jason W.; McCoy, Scott W.; Tucker, Greg E.

2011-01-01

High resolution topographic data that quantify changes in channel form caused by sequential debris flows in natural channels are rare at the reach scale. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) techniques are utilized to capture morphological changes brought about by a high-frequency of debris-flow events at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the topographic response of a natural channel to the documented debris-flow events. TLS survey data allowed for the generation of high-resolution (2-cm) digital terrain models (DTM) of the channel. A robust network of twelve permanent control points permitted repeat scanning sessions that provided multiple DTM to evaluate fine-scale topographic change associated with three debris-flow events. Difference surfaces from the DTM permit the interpretations of spatial variations in channel morphometry and net volume of material deposited and eroded within and between a series of channel reaches. Each channel reach experienced erosion, deposition, and both net volumetric gains and losses were measured. Analysis of potential relationships between erosion and deposition magnitudes yielded no strong correlations with measures of channel-reach morphometry, suggesting that channel reach-specific predictions of potential erosion or deposition locations or rates cannot be adequately derived from statistical analyses of pre-event channel-reach morphometry.

Cognitive impairment at diagnosis predicts 10-year multiple sclerosis progression.

PubMed

Moccia, Marcello; Lanzillo, Roberta; Palladino, Raffaele; Chang, Kiara Chu-Mei; Costabile, Teresa; Russo, Cinzia; De Rosa, Anna; Carotenuto, Antonio; Saccà, Francesco; Maniscalco, Giorgia Teresa; Brescia Morra, Vincenzo

2016-04-01

Cognitive impairment occurs from the early phases of multiple sclerosis (MS), and more frequently affects secondary progressive (SP) subjects than relapsing-remitting (RR). To investigate relationships between cognitive dysfunctions in newly diagnosed RRMS, and long-term MS-related outcomes. The present 10-year retrospective longitudinal study included 155 RRMS subjects, tested with the Rao Brief Repeatable Battery at MS diagnosis. The reaching of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 4.0, and the SP conversion were recorded. 67 subjects (43.2%) reached EDSS 4.0, and 34 subjects (21.9%) converted to SP during a follow-up period of 10.0±1.8 years. Subjects with cognitive impairment at diagnosis had a rate of reaching EDSS 4.0 more than three times greater (p<0.001; HR=3.183), and a rate of SP conversion more than two times greater, as compared to cognitively preserved subjects (p=0.008; HR=2.535). In particular, better scores in the Selective Reminding Test-Delayed Recall and in the Symbol Digit Modalities Test at baseline were associated with lower SP conversion rates during the follow-up period (p=0.018; HR=0.835; and p=0.001; HR=0.941, respectively). Cognitive impairment, with particular involvement of processing speed and memory, predicts disability progression and SP conversion in newly diagnosed RRMS, highlighting the importance of cognitive assessment from the beginning of MS. © The Author(s), 2015.

A Noise Level Prediction Method Based on Electro-Mechanical Frequency Response Function for Capacitors

PubMed Central

Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

2013-01-01

The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective. PMID:24349105

A noise level prediction method based on electro-mechanical frequency response function for capacitors.

PubMed

Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

2013-01-01

The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective.

Replica Exchange Improves Sampling in Low-Resolution Docking Stage of RosettaDock

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhe; Lange, Oliver F.

2013-01-01

Many protein-protein docking protocols are based on a shotgun approach, in which thousands of independent random-start trajectories minimize the rigid-body degrees of freedom. Another strategy is enumerative sampling as used in ZDOCK. Here, we introduce an alternative strategy, ReplicaDock, using a small number of long trajectories of temperature replica exchange. We compare replica exchange sampling as low-resolution stage of RosettaDock with RosettaDock's original shotgun sampling as well as with ZDOCK. A benchmark of 30 complexes starting from structures of the unbound binding partners shows improved performance for ReplicaDock and ZDOCK when compared to shotgun sampling at equal or less computational expense. ReplicaDock and ZDOCK consistently reach lower energies and generate significantly more near-native conformations than shotgun sampling. Accordingly, they both improve typical metrics of prediction quality of complex structures after refinement. Additionally, the refined ReplicaDock ensembles reach significantly lower interface energies and many previously hidden features of the docking energy landscape become visible when ReplicaDock is applied. PMID:24009670

Tumor containing fragment number influences immunohistochemistry positive rate of HER2 in biopsy specimens of gastric cancer.

PubMed

Xu, Chen; Liu, Yalan; Ge, Xiaowen; Jiang, Dongxian; Zhang, Ying; Ji, Yuan; Hou, Jun; Huang, Jie; Su, Jieakesu; Zeng, Haiying; Qin, Jing; Hou, Yingyong

2017-05-26

HER2 assessment in biopsy specimens of gastric cancer (GC) is challenging because of the intratumoral heterogeneity. False negative results may be get because of limited biopsy material. The aim of this study is to explore how tumor-containing fragment number and biopsy specimen number affect HER2 immunohistochemistry (IHC) positive rate. Eight hundred and ninety biopsy specimens and 459 paired resected specimens were collected. IHC staining of HER2 was performed. HER2 IHC positive (scored 3+) rate was compared based on tumor-containing fragment number, biopsy specimen number, average size and tumor tissue proportion of tumor-containing fragments. The positive predictability of biopsy specimens to resected specimens was analyzed based on tumor fragment number. HER2 IHC positive rates were 2.0, 3.5, 7.0, 13.2, 17.1, and 15.9% when tumor fragment numbers were 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 respectively. The rate rose with the increase of tumor fragment number (P = 0.004). ROC curve analysis showed that biopsy specimens exhibited positive predictability when tumor fragment number reached 3, but showed better performance when the number was ≥4 (P < 0.05). After fragment number reached 4, no statistic differences were reached in either HER2 IHC positive rate or positive predictability with further increase of the number (P > 0.05). HER2 IHC positive rate was not associated with biopsy number (P = 0.127), average size of tumor fragments (P = 0.397), and tumor tissue proportion of tumor fragments (P = 0.825) directly. The number of tumor-containing fragments influences HER2 IHC positive (scored 3+) rate. Greater than or equal to 4 (≥4) tumor fragments give better results in the positive rate as well as positive predictability. We recommend the number of tumor containing fragments be described in the HER2 IHC pathology reports for clinical reference in endoscopic biopsy specimens of GC.

Usefulness of conventional transbronchial needle aspiration in the diagnosis, staging and molecular characterization of pulmonary neoplasias by thin-prep based cytology: experience of a single oncological institute.

PubMed

Ramieri, Maria Teresa; Marandino, Ferdinando; Visca, Paolo; Salvitti, Tommaso; Gallo, Enzo; Casini, Beatrice; Giordano, Francesca Romana; Frigieri, Claudia; Caterino, Mauro; Carlini, Sandro; Rinaldi, Massimo; Ceribelli, Anna; Pennetti, Annarita; Alò, Pier Luigi; Marino, Mirella; Pescarmona, Edoardo; Filippetti, Massimo

2016-08-01

Conventional transbronchial needle aspiration (c-TBNA) contributed to improve the bronchoscopic examination, allowing to sample lesions located even outside the tracheo-bronchial tree and in the hilo-mediastinal district, both for diagnostic and staging purposes. We have evaluated the sensitivity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of the c-TBNA performed during the 2005-2015 period for suspicious lung neoplasia and/or hilar and mediastinal lymphadenopathy at the Thoracic endoscopy of the Thoracic Surgery Department of the Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome. Data from 273 consecutive patients (205 males and 68 females) were analyzed. Among 158 (58%) adequate specimens, 112 (41%) were neoplastic or contained atypical cells, 46 (17%) were negative or not diagnostic. We considered in the analysis first the overall period; then we compared the findings of the first [2005-2011] and second period [2012-2015] and, finally, only those of adequate specimens. During the overall period, sensibility and accuracy values were respectively of 53% and 63%, in the first period they reached 41% and 53% respectively; in the second period sensibility and accuracy reached 60% and 68%. Considering only the adequate specimens, sensibility and accuracy during the overall period were respectively of 80% and 82%; the values obtained for the first period were 68% and 72%. Finally, in the second period, sensibility reached 86% and accuracy 89%. Carcinoma-subtyping was possible in 112 cases, adenocarcinomas being diagnosed in 50 cases; further, in 30 cases molecular predictive data could be obtained. The c-TBNA proved to be an efficient method for the diagnosis/staging of lung neoplasms and for the diagnosis of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. Endoscopist's skill and technical development, associated to thin-prep cytology and to a rapid on site examination (ROSE), were able to provide by c-TBNA a high diagnostic yield and molecular predictive data in advanced lung carcinomas.

Nutrient and sediment concentrations, yields, and loads in impaired streams and rivers in the Taunton River Basin, Massachusetts, 1997-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbaro, Jeffrey R.; Sorenson, Jason R.

2013-01-01

Rapid development, population growth, and the changes in land and water use accompanying development are placing increasing stress on water resources in the Taunton River Basin. An assessment by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection determined that a number of tributary streams to the Taunton River are impaired for a variety of beneficial uses because of nutrient enrichment. Most of the impaired reaches are in the Matfield River drainage area in the vicinity of the City of Brockton. In addition to impairments of stream reaches in the basin, discharge of nutrient-rich water from the Taunton River contributes to eutrophication of Mount Hope and Narragansett Bays. To assess water quality and loading in the impaired tributary stream reaches in the basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection compiled existing water-quality data from previous studies for the period 1997-2006, developed and calibrated a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model to simulate streamflow in areas of the basin that contain the impaired reaches for the same time period, and collected additional streamflow and water-quality data from sites on the Matfield and Taunton Rivers in 2008. A majority of the waterquality samples used in the study were collected between 1999 and 2006. Overall, the concentration, yield, and load data presented in this report represent water-quality conditions in the basin for the period 1997-2008. Water-quality data from 52 unique sites were used in the study. Most of the samples from previous studies were collected between June and September under dry weather conditions. Simulated or measured daily mean streamflow and water-quality data were used to estimate constituent yields and loads in the impaired tributary stream reaches and the main stem of the Taunton River and to develop yield-duration plots for reaches with sufficient water-quality data. Total phosphorus concentrations in the impaired-reach areas ranged from 0.0046 to 0.91 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in individual samples (number of samples (n)=331), with a median of 0.090 mg/L; total nitrogen concentrations ranged from 0.34 to 14 mg/L in individual samples (n=139), with a median of 1.35 mg/L; and total suspended solids concentrations ranged from 2/d) for total phosphorus and 100 lb/mi2/d for total nitrogen in these reaches. In most of the impaired reaches not affected by the Brockton Advanced Water Reclamation Facility outfall, yields were lower than in reaches downstream from the outfall, and the difference between measured and threshold yields was fairly uniform over a wide range of flows, suggesting that multiple processes contribute to nonpoint loading in these reaches. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic SPAtially-Referenced Regression On Watershed (SPARROW) models for total phosphorus and total nitrogen also were used to estimate annual nutrient loads in the impaired tributary stream reaches and main stem of the Taunton River and predict the distribution of these loads among point and diffuse sources in reach drainage areas. SPARROW is a regional, statistical model that relates nutrient loads in streams to upstream sources and land-use characteristics and can be used to make predictions for streams that do not have nutrient-load data. The model predicts mean annual loads based on longterm streamflow and water-quality data and nutrient source conditions for the year 2002. Predicted mean annual nutrient loads from the SPARROW models were consistent with the measured yield and load data from sampling sites in the basin. For conditions in 2002, the Brockton Advanced Water Reclamation Facility outfall accounted for over 75 percent of the total nitrogen load and over 93 percent of the total phosphorus load in the Salisbury Plain and Matfield Rivers downstream from the outfall. Municipal point sources also accounted for most of the load in the main stem of the Taunton River. Multiple municipal wastewater discharges in the basin accounted for about 76 and 46 percent of the delivered loads of total phosphorus and total nitrogen, respectively, to Mount Hope Bay. For similarly sized watersheds, total delivered loads were lower in watersheds without point sources compared to those with point sources, and sources associated with developed land accounted for most of the delivered phosphorus and nitrogen loads to the impaired reaches. The concentration, yield, and load data evaluated in this study may not be representative of current (2012) point-source loading in the basin; in particular, most of the water-quality data used in the study (1999-2006) were collected prior to completion of upgrades to the Brockton Advanced Water Reclamation Facility that reduced total phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations in treated effluent. Effluent concentration data indicate that, for a given flow rate, effluent loads of total phosphorus and total nitrogen declined by about 80 and 30 percent, respectively, between the late 1990s and 2008 in response to plant upgrades. Consequently, current (2012) water-quality conditions in the impaired reaches downstream from the facility likely have improved compared to conditions described in the report.

Assessment of the utility of contact-based restraints in accelerating the prediction of protein structure using molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Raval, Alpan; Piana, Stefano; Eastwood, Michael P; Shaw, David E

2016-01-01

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a well-established tool for the computational study of protein structure and dynamics, but its application to the important problem of protein structure prediction remains challenging, in part because extremely long timescales can be required to reach the native structure. Here, we examine the extent to which the use of low-resolution information in the form of residue-residue contacts, which can often be inferred from bioinformatics or experimental studies, can accelerate the determination of protein structure in simulation. We incorporated sets of 62, 31, or 15 contact-based restraints in MD simulations of ubiquitin, a benchmark system known to fold to the native state on the millisecond timescale in unrestrained simulations. One-third of the restrained simulations folded to the native state within a few tens of microseconds-a speedup of over an order of magnitude compared with unrestrained simulations and a demonstration of the potential for limited amounts of structural information to accelerate structure determination. Almost all of the remaining ubiquitin simulations reached near-native conformations within a few tens of microseconds, but remained trapped there, apparently due to the restraints. We discuss potential methodological improvements that would facilitate escape from these near-native traps and allow more simulations to quickly reach the native state. Finally, using a target from the Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment, we show that distance restraints can improve simulation accuracy: In our simulations, restraints stabilized the native state of the protein, enabling a reasonable structural model to be inferred. © 2015 The Authors Protein Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Protein Society.

Transcranial Doppler detection of cerebral fat emboli and relation to paradoxical embolism: a pilot study.

PubMed

Forteza, Alejandro M; Koch, Sebastian; Campo-Bustillo, Iszet; Gutierrez, Jose; Haussen, Diogo C; Rabinstein, Alejandro A; Romano, Jose; Zych, Gregory A; Duncan, Robert

2011-05-10

The fat embolism syndrome is clinically characterized by dyspnea, skin petechiae, and neurological dysfunction. It is associated mainly with long bone fracture and bone marrow fat passage to the systemic circulation. An intracardiac right-to-left shunt (RLS) could allow larger fat particles to reach the systemic circulation. Transcranial Doppler can be a useful tool to detect both RLS and the fat particles reaching the brain. We prospectively studied patients with femur shaft fracture with RLS evaluation, daily transcranial Doppler with embolus detection studies, and neurological examinations to evaluate the relation of RLS and microembolic signals to the development of fat embolism syndrome. Forty-two patients were included; 14 had an RLS detected. Seven patients developed neurological symptoms; all of them had a positive RLS (P=<0.001). The patients with an RLS showed higher counts and higher intensities of microembolic signals (P=<0.05 and P=<0.01, respectively) compared with those who did not have an RLS identified. The presence of high microembolic signal counts and intensities in patients with RLS was strongly predictive of the occurrence of neurological symptoms (odds ratio, 204; 95% confidence interval, 11 to 3724; P<0.001) with a positive predictive value of 86% and negative predictive value of 97%. In patients with long bone fractures, the presence of an RLS is associated with larger and more frequent microembolic signals to the brain detected by transcranial Doppler study and can predict the development of neurological symptoms.

Predicting Behavioral Suites From Genetic Profiles: Variation in Mating, Aggression & Exploration in Pouched Rats

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-22

reproductive cycling. We measured the cell cytology of vaginal smears taken from cycling and non-cycling females and collected blood samples for...females often have not developed vaginal openings. To this end, we have compared animals from the field (TZ), housed at APOPO (TZ), and lab (US... vaginal opening postnataly. The vaginal opening appears to develop at about the time females reach 1 kg (about 1-1.5 years of age). Systematic

Artificial intelligence: a new approach for prescription and monitoring of hemodialysis therapy.

PubMed

Akl, A I; Sobh, M A; Enab, Y M; Tattersall, J

2001-12-01

The effect of dialysis on patients is conventionally predicted using a formal mathematical model. This approach requires many assumptions of the processes involved, and validation of these may be difficult. The validity of dialysis urea modeling using a formal mathematical model has been challenged. Artificial intelligence using neural networks (NNs) has been used to solve complex problems without needing a mathematical model or an understanding of the mechanisms involved. In this study, we applied an NN model to study and predict concentrations of urea during a hemodialysis session. We measured blood concentrations of urea, patient weight, and total urea removal by direct dialysate quantification (DDQ) at 30-minute intervals during the session (in 15 chronic hemodialysis patients). The NN model was trained to recognize the evolution of measured urea concentrations and was subsequently able to predict hemodialysis session time needed to reach a target solute removal index (SRI) in patients not previously studied by the NN model (in another 15 chronic hemodialysis patients). Comparing results of the NN model with the DDQ model, the prediction error was 10.9%, with a not significant difference between predicted total urea nitrogen (UN) removal and measured UN removal by DDQ. NN model predictions of time showed a not significant difference with actual intervals needed to reach the same SRI level at the same patient conditions, except for the prediction of SRI at the first 30-minute interval, which showed a significant difference (P = 0.001). This indicates the sensitivity of the NN model to what is called patient clearance time; the prediction error was 8.3%. From our results, we conclude that artificial intelligence applications in urea kinetics can give an idea of intradialysis profiling according to individual clinical needs. In theory, this approach can be extended easily to other solutes, making the NN model a step forward to achieving artificial-intelligent dialysis control.

Progression of coronary artery calcification seems to be inevitable, but predictable - results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study.

PubMed

Erbel, Raimund; Lehmann, Nils; Churzidse, Sofia; Rauwolf, Michael; Mahabadi, Amir A; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Bauer, Marcus; Kälsch, Hagen; Budde, Thomas; Montag, Michael; Schmermund, Axel; Stang, Andreas; Führer-Sakel, Dagmar; Weimar, Christian; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Dragano, Nico; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

2014-11-07

Coronary artery calcification (CAC), as a sign of atherosclerosis, can be detected and progression quantified using computed tomography (CT). We develop a tool for predicting CAC progression. In 3481 participants (45-74 years, 53.1% women) CAC percentiles at baseline (CACb) and after five years (CAC₅y) were evaluated, demonstrating progression along gender-specific percentiles, which showed exponentially shaped age-dependence. Using quantile regression on the log-scale (log(CACb+1)) we developed a tool to individually predict CAC₅y, and compared to observed CAC₅y. The difference between observed and predicted CAC₅y (log-scale, mean±SD) was 0.08±1.11 and 0.06±1.29 in men and women. Agreement reached a kappa-value of 0.746 (95% confidence interval: 0.732-0.760) and concordance correlation (log-scale) of 0.886 (0.879-0.893). Explained variance of observed by predicted log(CAC₅y+1) was 80.1% and 72.0% in men and women, and 81.0 and 73.6% including baseline risk factors. Evaluating the tool in 1940 individuals with CACb>0 and CACb<400 at baseline, of whom 242 (12.5%) developed CAC₅y>400, yielded a sensitivity of 59.5%, specificity 96.1%, (+) and (-) predictive values of 68.3% and 94.3%. A pre-defined acceptance range around predicted CAC₅y contained 68.1% of observed CAC₅y; only 20% were expected by chance. Age, blood pressure, lipid-lowering medication, diabetes, and smoking contributed to progression above the acceptance range in men and, excepting age, in women. CAC nearly inevitably progresses with limited influence of cardiovascular risk factors. This allowed the development of a mathematical tool for prediction of individual CAC progression, enabling anticipation of the age when CAC thresholds of high risk are reached. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Comparative study of the neutrino-nucleon cross section at ultrahigh energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, V. P.; Hepp, P.

2011-01-01

The high-energy neutrino cross section is a crucial ingredient in the calculation of the event rate in high-energy neutrino telescopes. Currently, there are several approaches that predict different behaviors for its magnitude for ultrahigh energies. In this paper, we present a comparison between the predictions based on linear Dokshitzer-Gribov-Lipatov-Altarelli-Parisi dynamics, nonlinear QCD, and the imposition of a Froissart-like behavior at high energies. In particular, we update the predictions based on the color glass condensate, presenting for the first time the results for σνN using the solution of the running coupling Balitsky-Kovchegov equation. Our results demonstrate that the current theoretical uncertainty for the neutrino-nucleon cross section reaches a factor of three for neutrino energies around 1011GeV and increases to a factor of five for 1013GeV.

Evaluation of the performance of the reduced local lymph node assay for skin sensitization testing.

PubMed

Ezendam, Janine; Muller, Andre; Hakkert, Betty C; van Loveren, Henk

2013-06-01

The local lymph node assay (LLNA) is the preferred method for classification of sensitizers within REACH. To reduce the number of mice for the identification of sensitizers the reduced LLNA was proposed, which uses only the high dose group of the LLNA. To evaluate the performance of this method for classification, LLNA data from REACH registrations were used and classification based on all dose groups was compared to classification based on the high dose group. We confirmed previous examinations of the reduced LLNA showing that this method is less sensitive compared to the LLNA. The reduced LLNA misclassified 3.3% of the sensitizers identified in the LLNA and misclassification occurred in all potency classes and that there was no clear association with irritant properties. It is therefore not possible to predict beforehand which substances might be misclassified. Another limitation of the reduced LLNA is that skin sensitizing potency cannot be assessed. For these reasons, it is not recommended to use the reduced LLNA as a stand-alone assay for skin sensitization testing within REACH. In the future, the reduced LLNA might be of added value in a weight of evidence approach to confirm negative results obtained with non-animal approaches. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Binary gaseous mixture and single component adsorption of methane and argon on exfoliated graphite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Brice Adam

Exfoliated graphite was used as a substrate for adsorption of argon and methane. Adsorption experiments were conducted for both equal parts mixtures of argon and methane and for each gas species independently. The purpose of this was to compare mixture adsorption to single component adsorption and to investigate theoretical predictions concerning the kinetics of adsorption made by Burde and Calbi.6 In particular, time to reach pressure equilibrium of a single dose at a constant temperature for the equal parts mixture was compared to time of adsorption for each species by itself. It was shown that mixture adsorption is a much more complex and time consuming process than single component adsorption and requires a much longer amount of time to reach equilibrium. Information about the composition evolution of the mixture during the times when pressure was going toward equilibrium was obtained using a quadrupole mass spectrometer. Evidence for initial higher rate of adsorption for the weaker binding energy species (argon) was found as well as overall composition change which clearly indicated a higher coverage of methane on the graphite sample by the time equilibration was reached. Effective specific surface area of graphite for both argon and methane was also determined using the Point-B method.2

Modeling daily discharge responses of a large karstic aquifer using soft computing methods: Artificial neural network and neuro-fuzzy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurtulus, Bedri; Razack, Moumtaz

2010-02-01

SummaryThis paper compares two methods for modeling karst aquifers, which are heterogeneous, highly non-linear, and hierarchical systems. There is a clear need to model these systems given the crucial role they play in water supply in many countries. In recent years, the main components of soft computing (fuzzy logic (FL), and Artificial Neural Networks, (ANNs)) have come to prevail in the modeling of complex non-linear systems in different scientific and technologic disciplines. In this study, Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Interface System (ANFIS) methods were used for the prediction of daily discharge of karstic aquifers and their capability was compared. The approach was applied to 7 years of daily data of La Rochefoucauld karst system in south-western France. In order to predict the karst daily discharges, single-input (rainfall, piezometric level) vs. multiple-input (rainfall and piezometric level) series were used. In addition to these inputs, all models used measured or simulated discharges from the previous days with a specified delay. The models were designed in a Matlab™ environment. An automatic procedure was used to select the best calibrated models. Daily discharge predictions were then performed using the calibrated models. Comparing predicted and observed hydrographs indicates that both models (ANN and ANFIS) provide close predictions of the karst daily discharges. The summary statistics of both series (observed and predicted daily discharges) are comparable. The performance of both models is improved when the number of inputs is increased from one to two. The root mean square error between the observed and predicted series reaches a minimum for two-input models. However, the ANFIS model demonstrates a better performance than the ANN model to predict peak flow. The ANFIS approach demonstrates a better generalization capability and slightly higher performance than the ANN, especially for peak discharges.

Prediction of Lateral Ankle Sprains in Football Players Based on Clinical Tests and Body Mass Index.

PubMed

Gribble, Phillip A; Terada, Masafumi; Beard, Megan Q; Kosik, Kyle B; Lepley, Adam S; McCann, Ryan S; Pietrosimone, Brian G; Thomas, Abbey C

2016-02-01

The lateral ankle sprain (LAS) is the most common injury suffered in sports, especially in football. While suggested in some studies, a predictive role of clinical tests for LAS has not been established. To determine which clinical tests, focused on potentially modifiable factors of movement patterns and body mass index (BMI), could best demonstrate risk of LAS among high school and collegiate football players. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 539 high school and collegiate football players were evaluated during the preseason with the Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT) and Functional Movement Screen as well as BMI. Results were compared between players who did and did not suffer an LAS during the season. Logistic regression analyses and calculated odds ratios were used to determine which measures predicted risk of LAS. The LAS group performed worse on the SEBT-anterior reaching direction (SEBT-ANT) and had higher BMI as compared with the noninjured group (P < .001). The strongest prediction models corresponded with the SEBT-ANT. Low performance on the SEBT-ANT predicted a risk of LAS in football players. BMI was also significantly higher in football players who sustained an LAS. Identifying clinical tools for successful LAS injury risk prediction will be a critical step toward the creation of effective prevention programs to reduce risk of sustaining an LAS during participation in football. © 2015 The Author(s).

Verifiable metamodels for nitrate losses to drains and groundwater in the Corn Belt, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, Bernard T.; Malone, Robert W.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Thorp, K.R.; Ma, Liwang

2012-01-01

Nitrate leaching in the unsaturated zone poses a risk to groundwater, whereas nitrate in tile drainage is conveyed directly to streams. We developed metamodels (MMs) consisting of artificial neural networks to simplify and upscale mechanistic fate and transport models for prediction of nitrate losses by drains and leaching in the Corn Belt, USA. The two final MMs predicted nitrate concentration and flux, respectively, in the shallow subsurface. Because each MM considered both tile drainage and leaching, they represent an integrated approach to vulnerability assessment. The MMs used readily available data comprising farm fertilizer nitrogen (N), weather data, and soil properties as inputs; therefore, they were well suited for regional extrapolation. The MMs effectively related the outputs of the underlying mechanistic model (Root Zone Water Quality Model) to the inputs (R2 = 0.986 for the nitrate concentration MM). Predicted nitrate concentration was compared with measured nitrate in 38 samples of recently recharged groundwater, yielding a Pearson’s r of 0.466 (p = 0.003). Predicted nitrate generally was higher than that measured in groundwater, possibly as a result of the time-lag for modern recharge to reach well screens, denitrification in groundwater, or interception of recharge by tile drains. In a qualitative comparison, predicted nitrate concentration also compared favorably with results from a previous regression model that predicted total N in streams.

Deep-Learning-Based Drug-Target Interaction Prediction.

PubMed

Wen, Ming; Zhang, Zhimin; Niu, Shaoyu; Sha, Haozhi; Yang, Ruihan; Yun, Yonghuan; Lu, Hongmei

2017-04-07

Identifying interactions between known drugs and targets is a major challenge in drug repositioning. In silico prediction of drug-target interaction (DTI) can speed up the expensive and time-consuming experimental work by providing the most potent DTIs. In silico prediction of DTI can also provide insights about the potential drug-drug interaction and promote the exploration of drug side effects. Traditionally, the performance of DTI prediction depends heavily on the descriptors used to represent the drugs and the target proteins. In this paper, to accurately predict new DTIs between approved drugs and targets without separating the targets into different classes, we developed a deep-learning-based algorithmic framework named DeepDTIs. It first abstracts representations from raw input descriptors using unsupervised pretraining and then applies known label pairs of interaction to build a classification model. Compared with other methods, it is found that DeepDTIs reaches or outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. The DeepDTIs can be further used to predict whether a new drug targets to some existing targets or whether a new target interacts with some existing drugs.

Evaluation of in silico tools to predict the skin sensitization potential of chemicals.

PubMed

Verheyen, G R; Braeken, E; Van Deun, K; Van Miert, S

2017-01-01

Public domain and commercial in silico tools were compared for their performance in predicting the skin sensitization potential of chemicals. The packages were either statistical based (Vega, CASE Ultra) or rule based (OECD Toolbox, Toxtree, Derek Nexus). In practice, several of these in silico tools are used in gap filling and read-across, but here their use was limited to make predictions based on presence/absence of structural features associated to sensitization. The top 400 ranking substances of the ATSDR 2011 Priority List of Hazardous Substances were selected as a starting point. Experimental information was identified for 160 chemically diverse substances (82 positive and 78 negative). The prediction for skin sensitization potential was compared with the experimental data. Rule-based tools perform slightly better, with accuracies ranging from 0.6 (OECD Toolbox) to 0.78 (Derek Nexus), compared with statistical tools that had accuracies ranging from 0.48 (Vega) to 0.73 (CASE Ultra - LLNA weak model). Combining models increased the performance, with positive and negative predictive values up to 80% and 84%, respectively. However, the number of substances that were predicted positive or negative for skin sensitization in both models was low. Adding more substances to the dataset will increase the confidence in the conclusions reached. The insights obtained in this evaluation are incorporated in a web database www.asopus.weebly.com that provides a potential end user context for the scope and performance of different in silico tools with respect to a common dataset of curated skin sensitization data.

Numerical prediction on the dispersion of pollutant particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osman, Kahar; Ali, Zairi; Ubaidullah, S.; Zahid, M. N.

2012-06-01

The increasing concern on air pollution has led people around the world to find more efficient ways to control the problem. Air dispersion modeling is proven to be one of the alternatives that provide economical ways to control the growing threat of air pollution. The objective of this research is to develop a practical numerical algorithm to predict the dispersion of pollutant particles around a specific source of emission. The source selected was a rubber wood manufacturing plant. Gaussian-plume model were used as air dispersion model due to its simplicity and generic application. Results of this study show the concentrations of the pollutant particles on ground level reached approximately 90μg/m3, compared with other software. This value surpasses the limit of 50μg/m3 stipulated by the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) and Recommended Malaysian Guidelines (RMG) set by Environment Department of Malaysia. The results also show high concentration of pollutant particles reading during dru seasons as compared to that of rainy seasons. In general, the developed algorithm is proven to be able to predict particles distribution around emitted source with acceptable accuracy.

Quantifying kinematics of purposeful movements to real, imagined, or absent functional objects: implications for modelling trajectories for robot-assisted ADL tasks.

PubMed

Wisneski, Kimberly J; Johnson, Michelle J

2007-03-23

Robotic therapy is at the forefront of stroke rehabilitation. The Activities of Daily Living Exercise Robot (ADLER) was developed to improve carryover of gains after training by combining the benefits of Activities of Daily Living (ADL) training (motivation and functional task practice with real objects), with the benefits of robot mediated therapy (repeatability and reliability). In combining these two therapy techniques, we seek to develop a new model for trajectory generation that will support functional movements to real objects during robot training. We studied natural movements to real objects and report on how initial reaching movements are affected by real objects and how these movements deviate from the straight line paths predicted by the minimum jerk model, typically used to generate trajectories in robot training environments. We highlight key issues that to be considered in modelling natural trajectories. Movement data was collected as eight normal subjects completed ADLs such as drinking and eating. Three conditions were considered: object absent, imagined, and present. This data was compared to predicted trajectories generated from implementing the minimum jerk model. The deviations in both the plane of the table (XY) and the sagittal plane of torso (XZ) were examined for both reaches to a cup and to a spoon. Velocity profiles and curvature were also quantified for all trajectories. We hypothesized that movements performed with functional task constraints and objects would deviate from the minimum jerk trajectory model more than those performed under imaginary or object absent conditions. Trajectory deviations from the predicted minimum jerk model for these reaches were shown to depend on three variables: object presence, object orientation, and plane of movement. When subjects completed the cup reach their movements were more curved than for the spoon reach. The object present condition for the cup reach showed more curvature than in the object imagined and absent conditions. Curvature in the XZ plane of movement was greater than curvature in the XY plane for all movements. The implemented minimum jerk trajectory model was not adequate for generating functional trajectories for these ADLs. The deviations caused by object affordance and functional task constraints must be accounted for in order to allow subjects to perform functional task training in robotic therapy environments. The major differences that we have highlighted include trajectory dependence on: object presence, object orientation, and the plane of movement. With the ability to practice ADLs on the ADLER environment we hope to provide patients with a therapy paradigm that will produce optimal results and recovery.

Sliding to predict: vision-based beating heart motion estimation by modeling temporal interactions.

PubMed

Aviles-Rivero, Angelica I; Alsaleh, Samar M; Casals, Alicia

2018-03-01

Technical advancements have been part of modern medical solutions as they promote better surgical alternatives that serve to the benefit of patients. Particularly with cardiovascular surgeries, robotic surgical systems enable surgeons to perform delicate procedures on a beating heart, avoiding the complications of cardiac arrest. This advantage comes with the price of having to deal with a dynamic target which presents technical challenges for the surgical system. In this work, we propose a solution for cardiac motion estimation. Our estimation approach uses a variational framework that guarantees preservation of the complex anatomy of the heart. An advantage of our approach is that it takes into account different disturbances, such as specular reflections and occlusion events. This is achieved by performing a preprocessing step that eliminates the specular highlights and a predicting step, based on a conditional restricted Boltzmann machine, that recovers missing information caused by partial occlusions. We carried out exhaustive experimentations on two datasets, one from a phantom and the other from an in vivo procedure. The results show that our visual approach reaches an average minima in the order of magnitude of [Formula: see text] while preserving the heart's anatomical structure and providing stable values for the Jacobian determinant ranging from 0.917 to 1.015. We also show that our specular elimination approach reaches an accuracy of 99% compared to a ground truth. In terms of prediction, our approach compared favorably against two well-known predictors, NARX and EKF, giving the lowest average RMSE of 0.071. Our approach avoids the risks of using mechanical stabilizers and can also be effective for acquiring the motion of organs other than the heart, such as the lung or other deformable objects.

Radiation Awareness for Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair in the Hybrid Operating Room. An Instant Patient Risk Chart for Daily Practice.

PubMed

de Ruiter, Quirina M; Gijsberts, Crystel M; Hazenberg, Constantijn E; Moll, Frans L; van Herwaarden, Joost A

2017-06-01

To determine which patient and C-arm characteristics are the strongest predictors of intraoperative patient radiation dose rates (DRs) during endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) procedures and create a patient risk chart. A retrospective analysis was performed of 74 EVAR procedures, including 16,889 X-ray runs using fixed C-arm imaging equipment. Four multivariate log-linear mixed models (with patient as a random effect) were constructed. Mean air kerma DR (DR AK , mGy/s) and the mean dose area product DR (DR DAP , mGycm 2 /s) were the outcome variables utilized for fluoroscopy as differentiated from digital subtraction angiography (DSA). These models were used to predict the maximum radiation duration allowed before a 2-Gy skin threshold (for DR AK ) or a 500-Gycm 2 threshold (for DR DAP ) was reached. The strongest predictor of DR AK and DR DAP for fluoroscopy imaging was the radiation protocol, with an increase of 200% when changing from "low" to "medium" and 410% from "low" to "normal." The strongest predictors of DR AK and DR DAP for DSA were C-arm angulation, with an increase of 47% per 30° of angulation, and body mass index (BMI), with an increase of 58% for every 5-point increase in BMI. Based on these models, a patient with a BMI of 30 kg/m 2 , combined with 45° of rotation and a field size of 800 cm 2 in the medium fluoroscopy protocol has a predicted DR AK of 0.39 mGy/s (or 85.5 minutes until the 2-Gy skin threshold is reached). While using comparable settings but switching the acquisition to a DSA with a "2 frames per second" protocol, the predicted DR AK will be 6.6 mGy/s (or 5.0 minutes until the 2-Gy threshold is reached). X-ray radiation DRs are constantly fluctuating during and between patients based on BMI, the protocols, C-arm position, and the image acquisitions that are used. An instant patient risk chart visualizes these radiation dose fluctuations and provides an overview of the expected duration of X-ray radiation, which can be used to predict when follow-up dose thresholds are reached during abdominal endovascular procedures.

Comparing the outcomes of two strategies for colorectal tumor detection: policy-promoted screening program versus health promotion service.

PubMed

Wu, Ping-Hsiu; Lin, Yu-Min; Liao, Chao-Sheng; Chang, Hung-Chuen; Chen, Yu-Hung; Yang, Kuo-Ching; Shih, Chia-Hui

2013-06-01

The Taiwanese government has proposed a population-based colorectal tumor detection program for the average-risk population. This study's objectives were to understand the outcomes of these screening policies and to evaluate the effectiveness of the program. We compared two databases compiled in one medical center. The "policy-promoted cancer screening" (PPS) database was built on the basis of the policy of the Taiwan Bureau of National Health Insurance for cancer screening. The "health promotion service" (HPS) database was built to provide health check-ups for self-paid volunteers. Both the PPS and HPS databases employ the immunochemical fecal occult blood test (iFOBT) and colonoscopy for colorectal tumor screening using different strategies. A comparison of outcomes between the PPS and HPS included: (1) quality indicators-compliance rate, cecum reaching rate, and tumor detection rate; and (2) validity indicators-sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values for detecting colorectal neoplasms. A total of 10,563 and 1481 individuals were enrolled in PPS and HPS, respectively. Among quality indicators, there was no statistically significant difference in the cecum reaching rate between PPS and HPS. The compliance rates were 56.1% for PPS and 91.8% for HPS (p < 0.001). The advanced adenoma detection rates of PPS and HPS were 1.0% and 3.6%, respectively (p < 0.01). The carcinoma detection rates were 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively (p = 0.59). For validity indicators, PPS provides only a positive predictive value for colorectal tumor detection. HPS provides additional validity indicators, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, for colorectal tumor screening. In comparison with the outcomes of the HPS database, the screening efficacy of the PPS database is even for detecting colorectal carcinoma but is limited in detecting advanced adenoma. HPS may provide comprehensive validity indicators and will be helpful in adjusting current policies for improving screening performance. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Effects of the Multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) on biomedical outcomes, observed cardiovascular events and cardiovascular risks in primary care: a longitudinal comparative study.

PubMed

Jiao, Fang Fang; Fung, Colman Siu Cheung; Wong, Carlos King Ho; Wan, Yuk Fai; Dai, Daisy; Kwok, Ruby; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

2014-08-21

To assess whether the Multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) led to improvements in biomedical outcomes, observed cardiovascular events and predicted cardiovascular risks after 12-month intervention in the primary care setting. A random sample of 1,248 people with diabetes enrolled to RAMP-DM for at least 12 months was selected and 1,248 people with diabetes under the usual primary care were matched by age, sex, and HbA1c level at baseline as the usual care group. Biomedical and cardiovascular outcomes were measured at baseline and at 12-month after the enrollment. Difference-in-differences approach was employed to measure the effect of RAMP-DM on the changes in biomedical outcomes, proportion of subjects reaching treatment targets, observed and predicted cardiovascular risks. Compared to the usual care group, RAMP-DM group had lower cardiovascular events incidence (1.21% vs 2.89%, P = 0.003), and net decrease in HbA1c (-0.20%, P < 0.01), SBP (-3.62 mmHg, P < 0.01) and 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks (total CVD risk, -2.06%, P < 0.01; coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, -1.43%, P < 0.01; stroke risk, -0.71%, P < 0.01). The RAMP-DM subjects witnessed significant rises in the proportion of reaching treatment targets of HbA1c, and SBP/DBP. After adjusting for confounding variables, the significance remained for HbA1c, predicted CHD and stroke risks. The RAMP-DM resulted in greater improvements in HbA1c and reduction in observed and predicted cardiovascular risks at 12 months follow-up, which indicated a risk-stratification multidisciplinary intervention was an effective strategy for managing Chinese people with diabetes in the primary care setting. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02034695.

Cerebellar ataxia: abnormal control of interaction torques across multiple joints.

PubMed

Bastian, A J; Martin, T A; Keating, J G; Thach, W T

1996-07-01

1. We studied seven subjects with cerebellar lesions and seven control subjects as they made reaching movements in the sagittal plane to a target directly in front of them. Reaches were made under three different conditions: 1) "slow-accurate," 2) "fast-accurate," and 3) "fast as possible." All subjects were videotaped moving in a sagittal plane with markers on the index finger, wrist, elbow, and shoulder. Marker positions were digitized and then used to calculate joint angles. For each of the shoulder, elbow and wrist joints, inverse dynamics equations based on a three-segment limb model were used to estimate the net torque (sum of components) and each of the component torques. The component torques consisted of the torque due to gravity, the dynamic interaction torques induced passively by the movement of the adjacent joint, and the torque produced by the muscles and passive tissue elements (sometimes called "residual" torque). 2. A kinematic analysis of the movement trajectory and the change in joint angles showed that the reaches of subjects with cerebellar lesions were abnormal compared with reaches of control subjects. In both the slow-accurate and fast-accurate conditions the cerebellar subjects made abnormally curved wrist paths; the curvature was greater in the slow-accurate condition. During the slow-accurate condition, cerebellar subjects showed target undershoot and tended to move one joint at a time (decomposition). During the fast-accurate reaches, the cerebellar subjects showed target overshoot. Additionally, in the fast-accurate condition, cerebellar subjects moved the joints at abnormal rates relative to one another, but the movements were less decomposed. Only three subjects were tested in the fast as possible condition; this condition was analyzed only to determine maximal reaching speeds of subjects with cerebellar lesions. Cerebellar subjects moved more slowly than controls in all three conditions. 3. A kinetic analysis of torques generated at each joint during the slow-accurate reaches and the fast-accurate reaches revealed that subjects with cerebellar lesions produced very different torque profiles compared with control subjects. In the slow-accurate condition, the cerebellar subjects produced abnormal elbow muscle torques that prevented the normal elbow extension early in the reach. In the fast-accurate condition, the cerebellar subjects produced inappropriate levels of shoulder muscle torque and also produced elbow muscle torques that did not very appropriately with the dynamic interaction torques that occurred at the elbow. Lack of appropriate muscle torque resulted in excessive contributions of the dynamic interaction torque during the fast-accurate reaches. 4. The inability to produce muscle torques that predict, accommodate, and compensate for the dynamic interaction torques appears to be an important cause of the classic kinematic deficits shown by cerebellar subjects during attempted reaching. These kinematic deficits include incoordination of the shoulder and the elbow joints, a curved trajectory, and overshoot. In the fast-accurate condition, cerebellar subjects often made inappropriate muscle torques relative to the dynamic interaction torques. Because of this, interaction torques often determined the pattern of incoordination of the elbow and shoulder that produced the curved trajectory and target overshoot. In the slow-accurate condition, we reason that the cerebellar subjects may use a decomposition strategy so as to simplify the movement and not have to control both joints simultaneously. From these results, we suggest that a major role of the cerebellum is in generating muscle torques at a joint that will predict the interaction torques being generated by other moving joints and compensate for them as they occur.

Application of the Rosner-Wei Risk-Prediction Model to Estimate Sexual Orientation Patterns in Colon Cancer Risk in a Prospective Cohort of U.S. Women

PubMed Central

Austin, S. Bryn; Pazaris, Mathew J.; Wei, Esther K.; Rosner, Bernard; Kennedy, Grace A.; Bowen, Deborah; Spiegelman, Donna

2014-01-01

Purpose We examined whether lesbian and bisexual women may be at greater risk of colon cancer (CC) than heterosexual women. Methods Working with a large cohort of U.S. women ages 25-64 years, we analyzed 20 years of prospective data to estimate CC incidence, based on known risk factors by applying the Rosner-Wei CC risk-prediction model. Comparing to heterosexual women, we calculated for lesbian and bisexual women the predicted one-year incidence rate (IR) per 100,000 person-years and estimated incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), based on each woman’s comprehensive risk factor profile. Results Analyses included 1,373,817 person-years of data from 66,257 women. For each sexual orientation group, mean predicted one-year CC IR per 100,000 person-years was slightly over 12 cases for each of the sexual orientation groups. After controlling for confounders in fully adjusted models and compared to heterosexuals, no significant differences in IRR were observed for lesbians (IRR 1.01; 95% CI 0.99, 1.04) or bisexuals (IRR 1.01; 95% CI 0.98, 1.04). Conclusions CC risk is similar across all sexual orientation subgroups, with all groups comparably affected. Health professionals must ensure that prevention, screening, and treatment programs are adequately reaching each of these communities. PMID:24852207

Reach of Individuals at Risk for Cardiovascular Disease by Proactive Recruitment Strategies in General Practices, Job Centers, and Health Insurance.

PubMed

Guertler, Diana; Meyer, Christian; Dörr, Marcus; Braatz, Janina; Weymar, Franziska; John, Ulrich; Freyer-Adam, Jennis; Ulbricht, Sabina

2017-02-01

Reach of individuals at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) constitutes a major determinant of the population impact of preventive effort. This study compares three proactive recruitment strategies regarding their reach of individuals with CVD risk factors. Individuals aged 40-65 years were invited to a two-stage cardio-preventive program including an on-site health screening and a cardiovascular examination program (CEP) using face-to-face recruitment in general practices (n = 671), job centers (n = 1049), and mail invitations from health insurance (n = 894). The recruitment strategies were compared regarding the following: (1) participation rate; (2) participants' characteristics, i.e., socio-demographics, self-reported health, and CVD risk factors (smoking, physical activity, fruit/vegetable consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, and glycated hemoglobin); and (3) participation factors, i.e., differences between participants and non-participants. Screening participation rates were 56.0, 32.8, and 23.5 % for the general practices, the job centers, and the health insurance, respectively. Among eligible individuals for the CEP, respectively, 80.3, 65.5, and 96.1 % participated in the CEP. Job center clients showed the lowest socio-economic status and the most adverse CVD risk pattern. Being female predicted screening participation across all strategies (OR = 1.45, 95 % CI 1.07-1.98; OR = 1.34, 95 % CI 1.04-1.74; OR = 1.62, 95 % CI 1.16-2.27). Age predicted screening participation only within health insurance (OR = 1.04, 95 % CI 1.01-1.06). Within the general practices and the job centers, CEP participants were less likely to be smokers than non-participants (OR = 0.49, 95 % CI 0.26-0.94; OR = 0.42, 95 % CI 0.20-0.89). The recruitment in general practices yielded the highest reach. However, job centers may be useful to reduce health inequalities induced by social gradient.

Goal-directed action is automatically biased towards looming motion

PubMed Central

Moher, Jeff; Sit, Jonathan; Song, Joo-Hyun

2014-01-01

It is known that looming motion can capture attention regardless of an observer’s intentions. Real-world behavior, however, frequently involves not just attentional selection, but selection for action. Thus, it is important to understand the impact of looming motion on goal-directed action to gain a broader perspective on how stimulus properties bias human behavior. We presented participants with a visually-guided reaching task in which they pointed to a target letter presented among non-target distractors. On some trials, one of the pre-masks at the location of the upcoming search objects grew rapidly in size, creating the appearance of a “looming” target or distractor. Even though looming motion did not predict the target location, the time required to reach to the target was shorter when the target loomed compared to when a distractor loomed. Furthermore, reach movement trajectories were pulled towards the location of a looming distractor when one was present, a pull that was greater still when the looming motion was on a collision path with the participant. We also contrast reaching data with data from a similarly designed visual search task requiring keypress responses. This comparison underscores the sensitivity of visually-guided reaching data, as some experimental manipulations, such as looming motion path, affected reach trajectories but not keypress measures. Together, the results demonstrate that looming motion biases visually-guided action regardless of an observer’s current behavioral goals, affecting not only the time required to reach to targets but also the path of the observer’s hand movement itself. PMID:25159287

Predicting losing and gaining river reaches in lowland New Zealand based on a statistical methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jing; Zammit, Christian; Dudley, Bruce

2017-04-01

The phenomenon of losing and gaining in rivers normally takes place in lowland where often there are various, sometimes conflicting uses for water resources, e.g., agriculture, industry, recreation, and maintenance of ecosystem function. To better support water allocation decisions, it is crucial to understand the location and seasonal dynamics of these losses and gains. We present a statistical methodology to predict losing and gaining river reaches in New Zealand based on 1) information surveys with surface water and groundwater experts from regional government, 2) A collection of river/watershed characteristics, including climate, soil and hydrogeologic information, and 3) the random forests technique. The surveys on losing and gaining reaches were conducted face-to-face at 16 New Zealand regional government authorities, and climate, soil, river geometry, and hydrogeologic data from various sources were collected and compiled to represent river/watershed characteristics. The random forests technique was used to build up the statistical relationship between river reach status (gain and loss) and river/watershed characteristics, and then to predict for river reaches at Strahler order one without prior losing and gaining information. Results show that the model has a classification error of around 10% for "gain" and "loss". The results will assist further research, and water allocation decisions in lowland New Zealand.

Prediction of the body rotation-induced torques on the arm during reaching movements: evidence from a proprioceptively deafferented subject.

PubMed

Guillaud, Etienne; Simoneau, Martin; Blouin, Jean

2011-06-01

Reaching for a target while rotating the trunk generates substantial Coriolis and centrifugal torques that push the arm in the opposite direction of the rotations. These torques rarely perturb movement accuracy, suggesting that they are compensated for during the movement. Here we tested whether signals generated during body motion (e.g., vestibular) can be used to predict the torques induced by the body rotation and to modify the motor commands accordingly. We asked a deafferented subject to reach for a memorized visual target in darkness. At the onset of the reaching, the patient was rotated 25° or 40° in the clockwise or the counterclockwise directions. During the rotation, the patient's head remained either fixed in space (Head-Fixed condition) or fixed on the trunk (Head Rotation condition). At the rotation onset, the deafferented patient's hand largely deviated from the mid-sagittal plane in both conditions. The hand deviations were compensated for in the Head Rotation condition only. These results highlight the computational faculty of the brain and show that body rotation-related information can be processed for predicting the consequence of the rotation dynamics on the reaching arm movements. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell

2014-01-01

Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate and land use changes, thereby providing information that is valuable to management of river ecosystems and biota such as brook trout.

Control and prediction components of movement planning in stuttering vs. nonstuttering adults

PubMed Central

Daliri, Ayoub; Prokopenko, Roman A.; Flanagan, J. Randall; Max, Ludo

2014-01-01

Purpose Stuttering individuals show speech and nonspeech sensorimotor deficiencies. To perform accurate movements, the sensorimotor system needs to generate appropriate control signals and correctly predict their sensory consequences. Using a reaching task, we examined the integrity of these control and prediction components, separately, for movements unrelated to the speech motor system. Method Nine stuttering and nine nonstuttering adults made fast reaching movements to visual targets while sliding an object under the index finger. To quantify control, we determined initial direction error and end-point error. To quantify prediction, we calculated the correlation between vertical and horizontal forces applied to the object—an index of how well vertical force (preventing slip) anticipated direction-dependent variations in horizontal force (moving the object). Results Directional and end-point error were significantly larger for the stuttering group. Both groups performed similarly in scaling vertical force with horizontal force. Conclusions The stuttering group's reduced reaching accuracy suggests limitations in generating control signals for voluntary movements, even for non-orofacial effectors. Typical scaling of vertical force with horizontal force suggests an intact ability to predict the consequences of planned control signals. Stuttering may be associated with generalized deficiencies in planning control signals rather than predicting the consequences of those signals. PMID:25203459

Quickprop method to speed up learning process of Artificial Neural Network in money's nominal value recognition case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swastika, Windra

2017-03-01

A money's nominal value recognition system has been developed using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). ANN with Back Propagation has one disadvantage. The learning process is very slow (or never reach the target) in the case of large number of iteration, weight and samples. One way to speed up the learning process is using Quickprop method. Quickprop method is based on Newton's method and able to speed up the learning process by assuming that the weight adjustment (E) is a parabolic function. The goal is to minimize the error gradient (E'). In our system, we use 5 types of money's nominal value, i.e. 1,000 IDR, 2,000 IDR, 5,000 IDR, 10,000 IDR and 50,000 IDR. One of the surface of each nominal were scanned and digitally processed. There are 40 patterns to be used as training set in ANN system. The effectiveness of Quickprop method in the ANN system was validated by 2 factors, (1) number of iterations required to reach error below 0.1; and (2) the accuracy to predict nominal values based on the input. Our results shows that the use of Quickprop method is successfully reduce the learning process compared to Back Propagation method. For 40 input patterns, Quickprop method successfully reached error below 0.1 for only 20 iterations, while Back Propagation method required 2000 iterations. The prediction accuracy for both method is higher than 90%.

Far-ultraviolet spectra and flux distributions of some Orion stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carruthers, G. R.; Heckathorn, H. M.; Opal, C. B.

1981-01-01

Far-ultraviolet (950-1800 A) spectra with about 2 A resolution were obtained of a number of stars in Orion during a sounding-rocket flight 1975 December 6. These spectra have been reduced to absolute flux distributions with the aid of preflight calibrations. The derived fluxes are in good agreement with model-atmosphere predictions and previous observations down to about 1200 A. In the 1200-1080 A range, the present results are in good agreement with model predictions but fall above the rocket measurements of Brune, Mount and Feldman. Below 1080 A, our measurements fall below the model predictions, reaching a deviation of a factor of 2 near 1010 A and a factor of 4 near 950 A. The present results are compared with those of Brune et al. via Copernicus U2 observations in this spectral range, and possible sources of discrepancies between the various observations and model-atmosphere predictions are discussed. Other aspects of the spectra, particularly with regard to spectral classification, are briefly discussed.

Land Covers Classification Based on Random Forest Method Using Features from Full-Waveform LIDAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, L.; Zhou, M.; Li, C.

2017-09-01

In this study, a Random Forest (RF) based land covers classification method is presented to predict the types of land covers in Miyun area. The returned full-waveforms which were acquired by a LiteMapper 5600 airborne LiDAR system were processed, including waveform filtering, waveform decomposition and features extraction. The commonly used features that were distance, intensity, Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM), skewness and kurtosis were extracted. These waveform features were used as attributes of training data for generating the RF prediction model. The RF prediction model was applied to predict the types of land covers in Miyun area as trees, buildings, farmland and ground. The classification results of these four types of land covers were obtained according to the ground truth information acquired from CCD image data of the same region. The RF classification results were compared with that of SVM method and show better results. The RF classification accuracy reached 89.73% and the classification Kappa was 0.8631.

LocTree2 predicts localization for all domains of life

PubMed Central

Goldberg, Tatyana; Hamp, Tobias; Rost, Burkhard

2012-01-01

Motivation: Subcellular localization is one aspect of protein function. Despite advances in high-throughput imaging, localization maps remain incomplete. Several methods accurately predict localization, but many challenges remain to be tackled. Results: In this study, we introduced a framework to predict localization in life's three domains, including globular and membrane proteins (3 classes for archaea; 6 for bacteria and 18 for eukaryota). The resulting method, LocTree2, works well even for protein fragments. It uses a hierarchical system of support vector machines that imitates the cascading mechanism of cellular sorting. The method reaches high levels of sustained performance (eukaryota: Q18=65%, bacteria: Q6=84%). LocTree2 also accurately distinguishes membrane and non-membrane proteins. In our hands, it compared favorably with top methods when tested on new data. Availability: Online through PredictProtein (predictprotein.org); as standalone version at http://www.rostlab.org/services/loctree2. Contact: localization@rostlab.org Supplementary Information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:22962467

Multiple Simulated Annealing-Molecular Dynamics (MSA-MD) for Conformational Space Search of Peptide and Miniprotein

PubMed Central

Hao, Ge-Fei; Xu, Wei-Fang; Yang, Sheng-Gang; Yang, Guang-Fu

2015-01-01

Protein and peptide structure predictions are of paramount importance for understanding their functions, as well as the interactions with other molecules. However, the use of molecular simulation techniques to directly predict the peptide structure from the primary amino acid sequence is always hindered by the rough topology of the conformational space and the limited simulation time scale. We developed here a new strategy, named Multiple Simulated Annealing-Molecular Dynamics (MSA-MD) to identify the native states of a peptide and miniprotein. A cluster of near native structures could be obtained by using the MSA-MD method, which turned out to be significantly more efficient in reaching the native structure compared to continuous MD and conventional SA-MD simulation. PMID:26492886

Applicability of the fish embryo acute toxicity (FET) test (OECD 236) in the regulatory context of Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH).

PubMed

Sobanska, Marta; Scholz, Stefan; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Cesnaitis, Romanas; Gutierrez Alonso, Simon; Klüver, Nils; Kühne, Ralph; Tyle, Henrik; de Knecht, Joop; Dang, Zhichao; Lundbergh, Ivar; Carlon, Claudio; De Coen, Wim

2018-03-01

In 2013 the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) test guideline (236) for fish embryo acute toxicity (FET) was adopted. It determines the acute toxicity of chemicals to embryonic fish. Previous studies show a good correlation of FET with the standard acute fish toxicity (AFT) test; however, the potential of the FET test to predict AFT, which is required by the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) regulation (EC 1907/2006) and the Classification, Labelling and Packaging (CLP) Regulation (EC 1272/2008), has not yet been fully clarified. In 2015 the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) requested that a consultant perform a scientific analysis of the applicability of FET to predict AFT. The purpose was to compare the toxicity of substances to fish embryos and to adult fish, and to investigate whether certain factors (e.g., physicochemical properties, modes of action, or chemical structures) could be used to define the applicability boundaries of the FET test. Given the limited data availability, the analysis focused on organic substances. The present critical review summarizes the main findings and discusses regulatory application of the FET test under REACH. Given some limitations (e.g., neurotoxic mode of action) and/or remaining uncertainties (e.g., deviation of some narcotic substances), it has been found that the FET test alone is currently not sufficient to meet the essential information on AFT as required by the REACH regulation. However, the test may be used within weight-of-evidence approaches together with other independent, relevant, and reliable sources of information. The present review also discusses further research needs that may overcome the remaining uncertainties and help to increase acceptance of FET as a replacement for AFT in the future. For example, an increase in the availability of data generated according to OECD test guideline 236 may provide evidence of a higher predictive power of the test. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:657-670. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Speeded Reaching Movements around Invisible Obstacles

PubMed Central

Hudson, Todd E.; Wolfe, Uta; Maloney, Laurence T.

2012-01-01

We analyze the problem of obstacle avoidance from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective using an experimental task in which reaches around a virtual obstacle were made toward targets on an upright monitor. Subjects received monetary rewards for touching the target and incurred losses for accidentally touching the intervening obstacle. The locations of target-obstacle pairs within the workspace were varied from trial to trial. We compared human performance to that of a Bayesian ideal movement planner (who chooses motor strategies maximizing expected gain) using the Dominance Test employed in Hudson et al. (2007). The ideal movement planner suffers from the same sources of noise as the human, but selects movement plans that maximize expected gain in the presence of that noise. We find good agreement between the predictions of the model and actual performance in most but not all experimental conditions. PMID:23028276

New method to measure the attenuation of hadrons in extensive air showers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, W. D.; Arteaga, J. C.; Badea, F.; Bekk, K.; Bertaina, M.; Blümer, J.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I. M.; Brüggemann, M.; Buchholz, P.; Cantoni, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cossavella, F.; Daumiller, K.; de Souza, V.; di Pierro, F.; Doll, P.; Engel, R.; Engler, J.; Finger, M.; Fuhrmann, D.; Ghia, P. L.; Gils, H. J.; Glasstetter, R.; Grupen, C.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hildebrand, D.; Hörandel, J. R.; Huege, T.; Isar, P. G.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kang, D.; Kickelbick, D.; Klages, H. O.; Kolotaev, Y.; Łuczak, P.; Mathes, H. J.; Mayer, H. J.; Milke, J.; Mitrica, B.; Morello, C.; Navarra, G.; Nehls, S.; Oehlschläger, J.; Ostapchenko, S.; Over, S.; Petcu, M.; Pierog, T.; Rebel, H.; Roth, M.; Schieler, H.; Schröder, F.; Sima, O.; Stümpert, M.; Toma, G.; Trinchero, G. C.; Ulrich, H.; van Buren, J.; Walkowiak, W.; Weindl, A.; Wochele, J.; Wommer, M.; Zabierowski, J.

2009-07-01

Extensive air showers are generated through interactions of high-energy cosmic rays impinging the Earth’s atmosphere. A new method is described to infer the attenuation of hadrons in air showers. The numbers of electrons and muons, registered with the scintillator array of the KASCADE experiment, are used to estimate the energy of the shower inducing primary particle. A large hadron calorimeter is used to measure the hadronic energy reaching observation level. The ratio of energy reaching ground level to the energy of the primary particle is used to derive an attenuation length of hadrons in air showers. In the energy range from 106 to 3×107GeV the attenuation length obtained increases from 170 to 210g/cm2. The experimental results are compared to predictions of simulations based on contemporary high-energy interaction models.

Spatial glass transition temperature variations in polymer glass: application to a maltodextrin-water system.

PubMed

van Sleeuwen, Rutger M T; Zhang, Suying; Normand, Valéry

2012-03-12

A model was developed to predict spatial glass transition temperature (T(g)) distributions in glassy maltodextrin particles during transient moisture sorption. The simulation employed a numerical mass transfer model with a concentration dependent apparent diffusion coefficient (D(app)) measured using Dynamic Vapor Sorption. The mass average moisture content increase and the associated decrease in T(g) were successfully modeled over time. Large spatial T(g) variations were predicted in the particle, resulting in a temporary broadening of the T(g) region. Temperature modulated differential scanning calorimetry confirmed that the variation in T(g) in nonequilibrated samples was larger than in equilibrated samples. This experimental broadening was characterized by an almost doubling of the T(g) breadth compared to the start of the experiment. Upon reaching equilibrium, both the experimental and predicted T(g) breadth contracted back to their initial value.

Two-question depression-screeners - the solution to all problems?

PubMed

Albani, Cornelia; Bailer, Harald; Blaser, Gerd; Brähler, Elmar; Geyer, Michael; Grulke, Norbert

2006-04-01

Depression constitutes a considerable issue in medicine and it is anticipated that the amount of people suffering from affective disorders will increase significantly. It would be useful to have a simple, fast screening procedure which would help detect depression. In four recently published articles a two-question depression-screener is recommended. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, negative and positive predictive values were compared. For four different clinical samples and one sample that was representative of the German population the prevalence for depression ranged from 6.9 % to 18.1 %. Sensitivity and specificity reached values from 72.6 % to 96.6 % and from 56.9 % to 90.0 % respectively. All negative predictive values were high (< 97 %) opposed to positive predictive values (17.8 % to 38.5 %). Overall, it seems that the two-question screenings are well suited for the exclusion of a major depression. It is possible that regular screening could further lower the percentage of undiagnosed cases.

Semiparametric Identification of Human Arm Dynamics for Flexible Control of a Functional Electrical Stimulation Neuroprosthesis

PubMed Central

Schearer, Eric M.; Liao, Yu-Wei; Perreault, Eric J.; Tresch, Matthew C.; Memberg, William D.; Kirsch, Robert F.; Lynch, Kevin M.

2016-01-01

We present a method to identify the dynamics of a human arm controlled by an implanted functional electrical stimulation neuroprosthesis. The method uses Gaussian process regression to predict shoulder and elbow torques given the shoulder and elbow joint positions and velocities and the electrical stimulation inputs to muscles. We compare the accuracy of torque predictions of nonparametric, semiparametric, and parametric model types. The most accurate of the three model types is a semiparametric Gaussian process model that combines the flexibility of a black box function approximator with the generalization power of a parameterized model. The semiparametric model predicted torques during stimulation of multiple muscles with errors less than 20% of the total muscle torque and passive torque needed to drive the arm. The identified model allows us to define an arbitrary reaching trajectory and approximately determine the muscle stimulations required to drive the arm along that trajectory. PMID:26955041

SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.; Jiang, J., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de

2016-06-01

Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of Cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 (2.5 ± 1.1 G) is comparable to that observed at the end of Cycle 23 (about 2 G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not muchmore » higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached.« less

Multiscale Fatigue Life Prediction for Composite Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Yarrington, Phillip W.; Arnold, Steven M.

2012-01-01

Fatigue life prediction capabilities have been incorporated into the HyperSizer Composite Analysis and Structural Sizing Software. The fatigue damage model is introduced at the fiber/matrix constituent scale through HyperSizer s coupling with NASA s MAC/GMC micromechanics software. This enables prediction of the micro scale damage progression throughout stiffened and sandwich panels as a function of cycles leading ultimately to simulated panel failure. The fatigue model implementation uses a cycle jumping technique such that, rather than applying a specified number of additional cycles, a specified local damage increment is specified and the number of additional cycles to reach this damage increment is calculated. In this way, the effect of stress redistribution due to damage-induced stiffness change is captured, but the fatigue simulations remain computationally efficient. The model is compared to experimental fatigue life data for two composite facesheet/foam core sandwich panels, demonstrating very good agreement.

Automatic Train Operation Using Autonomic Prediction of Train Runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asuka, Masashi; Kataoka, Kenji; Komaya, Kiyotoshi; Nishida, Syogo

In this paper, we present an automatic train control method adaptable to disturbed train traffic conditions. The proposed method presumes transmission of detected time of a home track clearance to trains approaching to the station by employing equipment of Digital ATC (Automatic Train Control). Using the information, each train controls its acceleration by the method that consists of two approaches. First, by setting a designated restricted speed, the train controls its running time to arrive at the next station in accordance with predicted delay. Second, the train predicts the time at which it will reach the current braking pattern generated by Digital ATC, along with the time when the braking pattern transits ahead. By comparing them, the train correctly chooses the coasting drive mode in advance to avoid deceleration due to the current braking pattern. We evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed method regarding driving conditions, energy consumption and reduction of delays by simulation.

To transfer or not to transfer? Kinematics and laterality quotient predict interlimb transfer of motor learning

PubMed Central

Lefumat, Hannah Z.; Vercher, Jean-Louis; Miall, R. Chris; Cole, Jonathan; Buloup, Frank; Bringoux, Lionel; Bourdin, Christophe

2015-01-01

Humans can remarkably adapt their motor behavior to novel environmental conditions, yet it remains unclear which factors enable us to transfer what we have learned with one limb to the other. Here we tested the hypothesis that interlimb transfer of sensorimotor adaptation is determined by environmental conditions but also by individual characteristics. We specifically examined the adaptation of unconstrained reaching movements to a novel Coriolis, velocity-dependent force field. Right-handed subjects sat at the center of a rotating platform and performed forward reaching movements with the upper limb toward flashed visual targets in prerotation, per-rotation (i.e., adaptation), and postrotation tests. Here only the dominant arm was used during adaptation and interlimb transfer was assessed by comparing performance of the nondominant arm before and after dominant-arm adaptation. Vision and no-vision conditions did not significantly influence interlimb transfer of trajectory adaptation, which on average was significant but limited. We uncovered a substantial heterogeneity of interlimb transfer across subjects and found that interlimb transfer can be qualitatively and quantitatively predicted for each healthy young individual. A classifier showed that in our study, interlimb transfer could be predicted based on the subject's task performance, most notably motor variability during learning, and his or her laterality quotient. Positive correlations suggested that variability of motor performance and lateralization of arm movement control facilitate interlimb transfer. We further show that these individual characteristics can predict the presence and the magnitude of interlimb transfer of left-handers. Overall, this study suggests that individual characteristics shape the way the nervous system can generalize motor learning. PMID:26334018

Benthic Light Availability Improves Predictions of Riverine Primary Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirk, L.; Cohen, M. J.

2017-12-01

Light is a fundamental control on photosynthesis, and often the only control strongly correlated with gross primary production (GPP) in streams and rivers; yet it has received far less attention than nutrients. Because benthic light is difficult to measure in situ, surrogates such as open sky irradiance are often used. Several studies have now refined methods to quantify canopy and water column attenuation of open sky light in order to estimate the amount of light that actually reaches the benthos. Given the additional effort that measuring benthic light requires, we should ask if benthic light always improves our predictions of GPP compared to just open sky irradiance. We use long-term, high-resolution dissolved oxygen, turbidity, dissolved organic matter (fDOM), and irradiance data from streams and rivers in north-central Florida, US across gradients of size and color to build statistical models of benthic light that predict GPP. Preliminary results on a large, clear river show only modest model improvements over open sky irradiance, even in heavily canopied reaches with pulses of tannic water. However, in another spring-fed river with greater connectivity to adjacent wetlands - and hence larger, more frequent pulses of tannic water - the model improved dramatically with the inclusion of fDOM (model R2 improved from 0.28 to 0.68). River shade modeling efforts also suggest that knowing benthic light will greatly enhance our ability to predict GPP in narrower, forested streams flowing in particular directions. Our objective is to outline conditions where an assessment of benthic light conditions would be necessary for riverine metabolism studies or management strategies.

Habitat quality of historic Snake River fall Chinook salmon spawning locations and implications for incubation survival: part 1, substrate quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanrahan, Timothy P.; Geist, David R.; Arntzen, Evan V.

2005-07-01

We evaluated substrate quality at two historic fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawning sites in the Snake River, Idaho, USA. The primary objective of this evaluation was to measure sediment permeability within these areas to determine the potential quality of the habitat in the event that anadromous salmonids are reintroduced to the upper Snake River. Riverbed sediments within the two sites in the upper Snake River were sampled using freeze cores and hydraulic slug tests. Sediment grain size distributions at both sites were typical of gravel-bed rivers with the surface layer coarser than the underlying substrate, suggesting the riverbed surfacemore » was armored. Despite the armored nature of the bed, the size of the largest material present on the riverbed surface was well within the size limit of material capable of being excavated by spawning fall Chinook salmon. The percentage of fines was low, suggesting good quality substrate for incubating salmon embryos. Geometric mean particle sizes found in this study compared to a 55% to 80% survival to emergence based on literature values. Hydraulic slug tests showed moderate to high hydraulic conductivity and were comparable to values from current fall Chinook salmon spawning areas in the Hells Canyon Reach of the Snake River and the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. Predicted estimates of mean egg survival at both sites (48% and 74%) equaled or exceeded estimates from fall Chinook salmon spawning areas in the Hells Canyon Reach and the Hanford Reach.« less

Cue reliability and a landmark stability heuristic determine relative weighting between egocentric and allocentric visual information in memory-guided reach.

PubMed

Byrne, Patrick A; Crawford, J Douglas

2010-06-01

It is not known how egocentric visual information (location of a target relative to the self) and allocentric visual information (location of a target relative to external landmarks) are integrated to form reach plans. Based on behavioral data from rodents and humans we hypothesized that the degree of stability in visual landmarks would influence the relative weighting. Furthermore, based on numerous cue-combination studies we hypothesized that the reach system would act like a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), where the reliability of both cues determines their relative weighting. To predict how these factors might interact we developed an MLE model that weighs egocentric and allocentric information based on their respective reliabilities, and also on an additional stability heuristic. We tested the predictions of this model in 10 human subjects by manipulating landmark stability and reliability (via variable amplitude vibration of the landmarks and variable amplitude gaze shifts) in three reach-to-touch tasks: an egocentric control (reaching without landmarks), an allocentric control (reaching relative to landmarks), and a cue-conflict task (involving a subtle landmark "shift" during the memory interval). Variability from all three experiments was used to derive parameters for the MLE model, which was then used to simulate egocentric-allocentric weighting in the cue-conflict experiment. As predicted by the model, landmark vibration--despite its lack of influence on pointing variability (and thus allocentric reliability) in the control experiment--had a strong influence on egocentric-allocentric weighting. A reduced model without the stability heuristic was unable to reproduce this effect. These results suggest heuristics for extrinsic cue stability are at least as important as reliability for determining cue weighting in memory-guided reaching.

Limited sampling strategies to predict the area under the concentration-time curve for rifampicin.

PubMed

Medellín-Garibay, Susanna E; Correa-López, Tania; Romero-Méndez, Carmen; Milán-Segovia, Rosa C; Romano-Moreno, Silvia

2014-12-01

Rifampicin (RMP) is the most effective first-line antituberculosis drug. One of the most critical aspects of using it in fixed-drug combination formulations is to ensure it reaches therapeutic levels in blood. The determination of the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and appropriate dose adjustment of this drug may contribute to optimization of therapy. Even when the maximal concentration (Cmax) of RMP also predicts its sterilizing effect, the time to reach it (Tmax) takes 40 minutes to 6 hours. The aim of this study was to develop a limited sampling strategy (LSS) for therapeutic drug monitoring assistance for RMP. Full concentration-time curves were obtained from 58 patients with tuberculosis (TB) after the oral administration of RMP in fixed-drug combination formulation. A validated high-performance liquid chromatographic method was used. Pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated with a noncompartmental model. Generalized linear models were obtained by forward steps, and bootstrapping was performed to develop LSS to predict AUC curve from time 0 to the last measured at 24 hours postdose (AUC0-24). The predictive performance of the proposed models was assessed using RMP profiles from 25 other TB patients by comparing predicted and observed AUC0-24. The mean AUC0-24 in the current study was 91.46 ± 36.7 mg·h·L, and the most convenient sampling time points to predict it were 2, 4 and 12 hours postdose (slope [m] = 0.955 ± 0.06; r = 0.92). The mean prediction error was -0.355%, and the root mean square error was 5.6% in the validation group. Alternate LSSs are proposed with 2 of these sampling time points, which also provide good predictions when the 3 most convenient are not feasible. The AUC0-24 for RMP in TB patients can be predicted with acceptable precision through a 2- or 3-point sampling strategy, despite wide interindividual variability. These LSSs could be applied in clinical practice to optimize anti-TB therapy based on therapeutic drug monitoring.

On-line compensation for perturbations of a reaching movement is cerebellar dependent: support for the task dependency hypothesis.

PubMed

Shimansky, Yury; Wang, Jian-Jun; Bauer, Richard A; Bracha, Vlastislav; Bloedel, James R

2004-03-01

Although the cerebellum has been shown to be critical for the acquisition and retention of adaptive modifications in certain reflex behaviors, this structure's role in the learning of motor skills required to execute complex voluntary goal-directed movements still is unclear. This study explores this issue by analyzing the effects of inactivating the interposed and dentate cerebellar nuclei on the adaptation required to compensate for an external elastic load applied during a reaching movement. We show that cats with these nuclei inactivated can adapt to predictable perturbations of the forelimb during a goal-directed reach by including a compensatory component in the motor plan prior to movement initiation. In contrast, when comparable compensatory modifications must be triggered on-line because the perturbations are applied in randomized trials (i.e., unpredictably), such adaptive responses cannot be executed or reacquired after the interposed and dentate nuclei are inactivated. These findings provide the first demonstration of the condition-dependent nature of the cerebellum's contribution to the learning of a specific volitional task.

Contributing factors to chronic ankle instability.

PubMed

Hubbard, Tricia J; Kramer, Lauren C; Denegar, Craig R; Hertel, Jay

2007-03-01

The development of repetitive ankle sprains and persistent symptoms after initial ankle sprain has been termed chronic ankle instability (CAI). There is no clear indication of which measures are most important in discriminating between individuals with and without CAI. Thirty subjects with unilateral CAI and controls had measures of ankle laxity and hypomobility, static and dynamic balance, ankle and hip strength, lower extremity alignments, and flexibility taken on both limbs. Based on comparisons of CAI ankles and side-matched limbs in controls, the measures significantly predictive of CAI were increased inversion laxity (r(2) change = 0.203), increased anterior laxity (r(2) change = 0.11), more missed balance trials (r(2) change = 0.094), and lower plantarflexion to dorsiflexion peak torque (r(2) change = 0.052). Symmetry indices comparing the side-to-side differences of each measure also were calculated for each dependent variable and compared between groups. The measures significantly predictive of CAI were decreased anterior reach (r(2) change = 0.185), decreased plantarflexion peak torque (r(2) change = 0.099), decreased posterior medial reach (r(2) change = 0.094), and increased inversion laxity (r(2) change = 0.041). The results of this study elucidate the specific measures that best discriminate between individuals with and without CAI. Both mechanical (anterior and inversion laxity) and functional (strength, dynamic balance) insufficiencies significantly contribute to the etiology of CAI. Prevention of CAI may be possible with proper initial management of the acute injury with rehabilitation aimed at those factors that best discriminate between individuals with and without CAI.

Sensitivity to prediction error in reach adaptation

PubMed Central

Haith, Adrian M.; Harran, Michelle D.; Shadmehr, Reza

2012-01-01

It has been proposed that the brain predicts the sensory consequences of a movement and compares it to the actual sensory feedback. When the two differ, an error signal is formed, driving adaptation. How does an error in one trial alter performance in the subsequent trial? Here we show that the sensitivity to error is not constant but declines as a function of error magnitude. That is, one learns relatively less from large errors compared with small errors. We performed an experiment in which humans made reaching movements and randomly experienced an error in both their visual and proprioceptive feedback. Proprioceptive errors were created with force fields, and visual errors were formed by perturbing the cursor trajectory to create a visual error that was smaller, the same size, or larger than the proprioceptive error. We measured single-trial adaptation and calculated sensitivity to error, i.e., the ratio of the trial-to-trial change in motor commands to error size. We found that for both sensory modalities sensitivity decreased with increasing error size. A reanalysis of a number of previously published psychophysical results also exhibited this feature. Finally, we asked how the brain might encode sensitivity to error. We reanalyzed previously published probabilities of cerebellar complex spikes (CSs) and found that this probability declined with increasing error size. From this we posit that a CS may be representative of the sensitivity to error, and not error itself, a hypothesis that may explain conflicting reports about CSs and their relationship to error. PMID:22773782

Comparing spatial regression to random forests for large ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Environmental data may be “large” due to number of records, number of covariates, or both. Random forests has a reputation for good predictive performance when using many covariates, whereas spatial regression, when using reduced rank methods, has a reputation for good predictive performance when using many records. In this study, we compare these two techniques using a data set containing the macroinvertebrate multimetric index (MMI) at 1859 stream sites with over 200 landscape covariates. Our primary goal is predicting MMI at over 1.1 million perennial stream reaches across the USA. For spatial regression modeling, we develop two new methods to accommodate large data: (1) a procedure that estimates optimal Box-Cox transformations to linearize covariate relationships; and (2) a computationally efficient covariate selection routine that takes into account spatial autocorrelation. We show that our new methods lead to cross-validated performance similar to random forests, but that there is an advantage for spatial regression when quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. Simulations are used to clarify advantages for each method. This research investigates different approaches for modeling and mapping national stream condition. We use MMI data from the EPA's National Rivers and Streams Assessment and predictors from StreamCat (Hill et al., 2015). Previous studies have focused on modeling the MMI condition classes (i.e., good, fair, and po

Discharge of primate magnocellular red nucleus neurons during reaching to grasp in different spatial locations.

PubMed

van Kan, Peter L E; McCurdy, Martha L

2002-01-01

Reaching to grasp is of fundamental importance to primate motor behavior. One descending motor pathway that contributes to the control of this behavior is the rubrospinal tract. An important source of origin of the rubrospinal tract is the magnocellular red nucleus (RNm). Forelimb RNm neurons discharge vigorously during reach-to-grasp movements. RNm discharge is important for hand use, as coordinated whole-limb movements without hand use are not associated with strong discharge. Because RNm is functionally linked to muscles of the entire forelimb, RNm discharge may also contribute to use of the proximal limb that accompanies hand use. If RNm contributes to proximal limb use, we predict discharge to differ for reaches that differ in proximal limb involvement but require the same grasp. We tested this prediction by measuring discharge of individual RNm neurons while monkeys reached to grasp objects in four spatial locations in front of them. The animals reached from the waist to locations to the left, right, above, and below the shoulder of the "reaching" limb. RNm neurons of our sample were activated strongly during reach-to-grasp, and discharge of a third of the neurons tested depended on the spatial location of the object grasped. Discharge of RNm neurons and EMG activity of many of the distal and proximal forelimb muscles we tested were larger for reaching to grasp in the upper and/or right than lower and left target locations. Based on comparisons of each individual neuron's discharge patterns during reaches with and without preshaping the hand, we conclude that target location-dependent modulations in discharge rate of the majority of RNm neurons whose discharge differed for reaching to grasp in the four target locations contributed to aspects of hand preshaping that covaried with reach direction.

"Refsdal" Meets Popper: Comparing Predictions of the Re-appearance of the Multiply Imaged Supernova Behind MACSJ1149.5+2223

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Treu, T.; Brammer, G.; Diego, J. M.; Grillo, C.; Kelly, P. L.; Oguri, M.; Rodney, S. A.; Rosati, P.; Sharon, K.; Zitrin, A.; Balestra, I.; Bradač, M.; Broadhurst, T.; Caminha, G. B.; Halkola, A.; Hoag, A.; Ishigaki, M.; Johnson, T. L.; Karman, W.; Kawamata, R.; Mercurio, A.; Schmidt, K. B.; Strolger, L.-G.; Suyu, S. H.; Filippenko, A. V.; Foley, R. J.; Jha, S. W.; Patel, B.

2016-01-01

Supernova “Refsdal,” multiply imaged by cluster MACS1149.5+2223, represents a rare opportunity to make a true blind test of model predictions in extragalactic astronomy, on a timescale that is short compared to a human lifetime. In order to take advantage of this event, we produced seven gravitational lens models with five independent methods, based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Hubble Frontier Field images, along with extensive spectroscopic follow-up observations by HST, the Very Large and the Keck Telescopes. We compare the model predictions and show that they agree reasonably well with the measured time delays and magnification ratios between the known images, even though these quantities were not used as input. This agreement is encouraging, considering that the models only provide statistical uncertainties, and do not include additional sources of uncertainties such as structure along the line of sight, cosmology, and the mass sheet degeneracy. We then present the model predictions for the other appearances of supernova “Refsdal.” A future image will reach its peak in the first half of 2016, while another image appeared between 1994 and 2004. The past image would have been too faint to be detected in existing archival images. The future image should be approximately one-third as bright as the brightest known image (I.e., {H}{{AB}}≈ 25.7 mag at peak and {H}{{AB}}≈ 26.7 mag six months before peak), and thus detectable in single-orbit HST images. We will find out soon whether our predictions are correct.

Pilot Mental Workload with Predictive System Status Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1998-01-01

Research has shown a strong pilot preference for predictive information of aircraft system status in the flight deck. However, the mental workload associated with using this predictive information has not been ascertained. The study described here attempted to measure mental workload. In this simulator experiment, three types of predictive information (none, whether a parameter was changing abnormally, and the time for a parameter to reach an alert range) and four initial times to a parameter alert range (1 minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and ETA+45 minutes) were tested to determine their effects on subjects mental workload. Subjective workload ratings increased with increasing predictive information (whether a parameter was changing abnormally or the time for a parameter to reach an alert range). Subjective situation awareness decreased with more predictive information but it became greater with increasing initial times to a parameter alert range. Also, subjective focus changed depending on the type of predictive information. Lastly, skin temperature fluctuated less as the initial time to a parameter alert range increased.

Defining the formative discharge for alternate bars in alluvial rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redolfi, M.; Carlin, M.; Tubino, M.; Adami, L.; Zolezzi, G.

2017-12-01

We investigate the properties of alternate bars in long straight reaches of channelized streams subject to an unsteady, irregular flow regime. To this aim we propose a novel integration of a statistical approach with the analytical perturbation model of Tubino (1991) which predicts the evolution of bar properties (namely amplitude and wavelength) as consequence of a flood. The outcomes of our integrated modelling approach are probability distribution of the bar properties, which depend essentially on two ingredients: (i) the statistical properties of the flow regime (duration, frequency and magnitude of the flood events, and (ii) the reach-averaged hydro-geomorphic characteristics of the channel (bed material, channel gradient and width). This allows to define a "bar-forming" discharge value as the flow value which would reproduce the most likely bar properties in a river reach under unsteady flow. Alternate bars are often migrating downstream and growing or declining during flood events. The timescale of bar growth and migration is often comparable with the duration of the floods: consequently, bar properties such as height and wavelength do not respond instantaneously to discharge variations (i.e. quasi-equilibrium response) but may depend on previous flood events. Theoretical results are compared with observations in three Alpine, channelized gravel bed rivers with encouraging outcomes.

From microbes to water districts: Linking observations across scales to uncover the implications of riparian and channel management on water quality in an irrigated agricultural landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, A.; Cadenasso, M. L.

2016-12-01

Interactions among runoff, riparian and stream ecosystems, and water quality remain uncertain in many settings, particularly those heavily impacted by human activities. For example, waterways in the irrigated agricultural landscape of California's Central Valley are seasonally disconnected from groundwater tables and are extensively modified by infrastructure and management. These conditions make the impact of riparian and channel management difficult to predict across scales, which hinders efforts to promote best management practices to improve water quality. We seek to link observations across catchment, reach, and patch scales to understand patterns of nitrate and turbidity in waterways draining irrigated cropland. Data was collected on 80 reaches spanning two water management districts. At the catchment scale, water districts implemented waterway and riparian management differently: one water district had a decentralized approach, allowing individual land owners to manage their waterway channels and banks, while the other had a centralized approach, in which land owners defer management to a district-run program. At the reach scale, riparian and waterway vegetation, geomorphic complexity, and flow conditions were quantified. Reach-scale management such as riparian planting projects and channel dredging frequency were also considered. At the patch scale, denitrification potential and organic matter were measured in riparian toe-slope soils and channel sediments, along with associated vegetation and geomorphic features. All factors were tested for their ability to predict water quality using generalized linear mixed effects models and the consistency of predictors within and across scales was evaluated. A hierarchy of predictors emerges: catchment-scale management regimes predict reach-scale geomorphic and vegetation complexity, which in turn predicts sediment denitrification potential - the patch-scale factor most associated with low nitrate. Similarly, turbidity conveyance was most associated with reach-scale factors. These findings suggest that, in the absence of other regulations, a decentralized management approach to riparian zones and waterways allows reach-scale complexity to arise, which in turn promotes ecosystem function and improved water quality.

Task-dependent vestibular feedback responses in reaching.

PubMed

Keyser, Johannes; Medendorp, W Pieter; Selen, Luc P J

2017-07-01

When reaching for an earth-fixed object during self-rotation, the motor system should appropriately integrate vestibular signals and sensory predictions to compensate for the intervening motion and its induced inertial forces. While it is well established that this integration occurs rapidly, it is unknown whether vestibular feedback is specifically processed dependent on the behavioral goal. Here, we studied whether vestibular signals evoke fixed responses with the aim to preserve the hand trajectory in space or are processed more flexibly, correcting trajectories only in task-relevant spatial dimensions. We used galvanic vestibular stimulation to perturb reaching movements toward a narrow or a wide target. Results show that the same vestibular stimulation led to smaller trajectory corrections to the wide than the narrow target. We interpret this reduced compensation as a task-dependent modulation of vestibular feedback responses, tuned to minimally intervene with the task-irrelevant dimension of the reach. These task-dependent vestibular feedback corrections are in accordance with a central prediction of optimal feedback control theory and mirror the sophistication seen in feedback responses to mechanical and visual perturbations of the upper limb. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Correcting limb movements for external perturbations is a hallmark of flexible sensorimotor behavior. While visual and mechanical perturbations are corrected in a task-dependent manner, it is unclear whether a vestibular perturbation, naturally arising when the body moves, is selectively processed in reach control. We show, using galvanic vestibular stimulation, that reach corrections to vestibular perturbations are task dependent, consistent with a prediction of optimal feedback control theory. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Predicting power-optimal kinematics of avian wings

PubMed Central

Parslew, Ben

2015-01-01

A theoretical model of avian flight is developed which simulates wing motion through a class of methods known as predictive simulation. This approach uses numerical optimization to predict power-optimal kinematics of avian wings in hover, cruise, climb and descent. The wing dynamics capture both aerodynamic and inertial loads. The model is used to simulate the flight of the pigeon, Columba livia, and the results are compared with previous experimental measurements. In cruise, the model unearths a vast range of kinematic modes that are capable of generating the required forces for flight. The most efficient mode uses a near-vertical stroke–plane and a flexed-wing upstroke, similar to kinematics recorded experimentally. In hover, the model predicts that the power-optimal mode uses an extended-wing upstroke, similar to hummingbirds. In flexing their wings, pigeons are predicted to consume 20% more power than if they kept their wings full extended, implying that the typical kinematics used by pigeons in hover are suboptimal. Predictions of climbing flight suggest that the most energy-efficient way to reach a given altitude is to climb as steeply as possible, subjected to the availability of power. PMID:25392398

Body growth and life history in wild mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) from Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda.

PubMed

Galbany, Jordi; Abavandimwe, Didier; Vakiener, Meagan; Eckardt, Winnie; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Ndagijimana, Felix; Stoinski, Tara S; McFarlin, Shannon C

2017-07-01

Great apes show considerable diversity in socioecology and life history, but knowledge of their physical growth in natural settings is scarce. We characterized linear body size growth in wild mountain gorillas from Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda, a population distinguished by its extreme folivory and accelerated life histories. In 131 individuals (0.09-35.26 years), we used non-invasive parallel laser photogrammetry to measure body length, back width, arm length and two head dimensions. Nonparametric LOESS regression was used to characterize cross-sectional distance and velocity growth curves for males and females, and consider links with key life history milestones. Sex differences became evident between 8.5 and 10.0 years of age. Thereafter, female growth velocities declined, while males showed increased growth velocities until 10.0-14.5 years across dimensions. Body dimensions varied in growth; females and males reached 98% of maximum body length at 11.7 and 13.1 years, respectively. Females attained 95.3% of maximum body length by mean age at first birth. Neonates were 31% of maternal size, and doubled in size by mean weaning age. Males reached maximum body and arm length and back width before emigration, but experienced continued growth in head dimensions. While comparable data are scarce, our findings provide preliminary support for the prediction that mountain gorillas reach maximum body size at earlier ages compared to more frugivorous western gorillas. Data from other wild populations are needed to better understand comparative great ape development, and investigate links between trajectories of physical, behavioral, and reproductive maturation. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Simulations of nearly extremal binary black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giesler, Matthew; Scheel, Mark; Hemberger, Daniel; Lovelace, Geoffrey; Kuper, Kevin; Boyle, Michael; Szilagyi, Bela; Kidder, Lawrence; SXS Collaboration

2015-04-01

Astrophysical black holes could have nearly extremal spins; therefore, nearly extremal black holes could be among the binaries that current and future gravitational-wave observatories will detect. Predicting the gravitational waves emitted by merging black holes requires numerical-relativity simulations, but these simulations are especially challenging when one or both holes have mass m and spin S exceeding the Bowen-York limit of S /m2 = 0 . 93 . Using improved methods we simulate an unequal-mass, precessing binary black hole coalescence, where the larger black hole has S /m2 = 0 . 99 . We also use these methods to simulate a nearly extremal non-precessing binary black hole coalescence, where both black holes have S /m2 = 0 . 994 , nearly reaching the Novikov-Thorne upper bound for holes spun up by thin accretion disks. We demonstrate numerical convergence and estimate the numerical errors of the waveforms; we compare numerical waveforms from our simulations with post-Newtonian and effective-one-body waveforms; and we compare the evolution of the black-hole masses and spins with analytic predictions.

Algal Nitrate Assimilation and Productivity in an Urban, Concrete-Lined Stream Dominated by Tertiary Treated Municipal Waste-Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kent, R. H.; Burton, C. A.

2001-12-01

This study examined the extent and variabiltity of nitrate loss in a 2.85 km reach of Cucamonga Creek, which is concrete-lined and dominated by treated municipal waste-water. Primary production was measured to determine if the loss could be attributed to algal assimilation. Samples for nitrite plus nitrate analysis were collected at the top and bottom of the study reach every hour throughout the 24-hour sampling period; samples for analyses of other parameters were collected less frequently. Water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH and specific conductance were monitored continuously throughout the sampling period using in-stream probes. During the two weeks prior to the study, periphyton samples were collected periodically at four stations along the reach for standing crop measurements and a growth rate time-series using Chlorophyll A and ash-free-dry mass. Water samples from the upstream station were compared to those taken an hour later (the approximate travel time) at the downstream station. Nitrate concentrations were lower at the downstream station in 21 of 25 of the paired samples, indicating nearly continuous loss in the reach. The total loss of NO3 for the day was about 0.71 g as N/m2. Most of the loss occurred during daylight hours, with the peak occurring at midday. During the night, CO2 concentrations were relatively constant at about 25 mg/L. Concentrations began to decline at sunrise, and declined to 0 mg/L at the lower site after midday. Peak nitrate loss occurred at about the same time as the CO2 concentration was at its minimum. DO declined slightly during the night, began to rise at sunrise, reached a peak during midday, and declined in late afternoon through evening; pH followed a similar pattern. Net primary productivity, as measured by the differences in DO between the two sites was 13 g O2/m2 for the day. Using the Redfield ratio, the predicted nitrate assimilation is about 0.66 g NO3 as N/m2. The continuous loss of nitrate between the two sites; the comparability between the observed loss in nitrate and that predicted using the Redfield ratio; and the timing of changes in nitrate loss, DO, pH and CO2 indicate that nitrate loss in this concrete-lined channel was primarily due to algal assimilation. The timing of the peak nitrate loss relative to the depletion of CO2 suggests that CO2 may be limiting photosynthesis, and therefore assimilation of nitrate by algae.

Aerodynamic-structural model of offwind yacht sails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mairs, Christopher M.

An aerodynamic-structural model of offwind yacht sails was created that is useful in predicting sail forces. Two sails were examined experimentally and computationally at several wind angles to explore a variety of flow regimes. The accuracy of the numerical solutions was measured by comparing to experimental results. The two sails examined were a Code 0 and a reaching asymmetric spinnaker. During experiment, balance, wake, and sail shape data were recorded for both sails in various configurations. Two computational steps were used to evaluate the computational model. First, an aerodynamic flow model that includes viscosity effects was used to examine the experimental flying shapes that were recorded. Second, the aerodynamic model was combined with a nonlinear, structural, finite element analysis (FEA) model. The aerodynamic and structural models were used iteratively to predict final flying shapes of offwind sails, starting with the design shapes. The Code 0 has relatively low camber and is used at small angles of attack. It was examined experimentally and computationally at a single angle of attack in two trim configurations, a baseline and overtrimmed setting. Experimentally, the Code 0 was stable and maintained large flow attachment regions. The digitized flying shapes from experiment were examined in the aerodynamic model. Force area predictions matched experimental results well. When the aerodynamic-structural tool was employed, the predictive capability was slightly worse. The reaching asymmetric spinnaker has higher camber and operates at higher angles of attack than the Code 0. Experimentally and computationally, it was examined at two angles of attack. Like the Code 0, at each wind angle, baseline and overtrimmed settings were examined. Experimentally, sail oscillations and large flow detachment regions were encountered. The computational analysis began by examining the experimental flying shapes in the aerodynamic model. In the baseline setting, the computational force predictions were fair at both wind angles examined. Force predictions were much improved in the overtrimmed setting when the sail was highly stalled and more stable. The same trends in force prediction were seen when employing the aerodynamic-structural model. Predictions were good to fair in the baseline setting but improved in the overtrimmed configuration.

High field Q slope and the effect of low-temperature baking at 3 GHz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciovati, G.; Eremeev, G.; Hannon, F.

2018-01-01

A strong degradation of the unloaded quality factor with field, called high field Q slope, is commonly observed above Bp ≅100 mT in elliptical superconducting niobium cavities at 1.3 and 1.5 GHz. In the present experiments several 3 GHz niobium cavities were measured up to and above Bp ≅100 mT . The measurements show that a high field Q slope phenomenon limits the field reach at this frequency, that the high field Q slope onset field depends weakly on the frequency, and that the high field Q slope can be removed by the typical empirical solution of electropolishing followed by heating to 120°C for 48 hrs. In addition, one of the cavities reached a quench field of 174 mT and its field dependence of the quality factor was compared against global heating predicted by a thermal feedback model.

Field-level validation of a CLIMEX model for Cactoblastis cactorum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) using estimated larval growth rates.

PubMed

Legaspi, Benjamin C; Legaspi, Jesusa Crisostomo

2010-04-01

Invasive pests, such as the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum (Berg) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), have not reached equilibrium distributions and present unique opportunities to validate models by comparing predicted distributions with eventual realized geographic ranges. A CLIMEX model was developed for C. cactorum. Model validation was attempted at the global scale by comparing worldwide distribution against known occurrence records and at the field scale by comparing CLIMEX "growth indices" against field measurements of larval growth. Globally, CLIMEX predicted limited potential distribution in North America (from the Caribbean Islands to Florida, Texas, and Mexico), Africa (South Africa and parts of the eastern coast), southern India, parts of Southeast Asia, and the northeastern coast of Australia. Actual records indicate the moth has been found in the Caribbean (Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat Saint Kitts and Nevis, Cayman Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands), Cuba, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, southern Africa, Kenya, Mexico, and Australia. However, the model did not predict that distribution would extend from India to the west into Pakistan. In the United States, comparison of the predicted and actual distribution patterns suggests that the moth may be close to its predicted northern range along the Atlantic coast. Parts of Texas and most of Mexico may be vulnerable to geographic range expansion of C. cactorum. Larval growth rates in the field were estimated by measuring differences in head capsules and body lengths of larval cohorts at weekly intervals. Growth indices plotted against measures of larval growth rates compared poorly when CLIMEX was run using the default historical weather data. CLIMEX predicted a single period conducive to insect development, in contrast to the three generations observed in the field. Only time and more complete records will tell whether C. cactorum will extend its geographical distribution to regions predicted by the CLIMEX model. In terms of small scale temporal predictions, this study suggests that CLIMEX indices may agree with field-specific population dynamics, provided an adequate metric for insect growth rate is used and weather data are location and time specific.

Systematic Reviews of Animal Models: Methodology versus Epistemology

PubMed Central

Greek, Ray; Menache, Andre

2013-01-01

Systematic reviews are currently favored methods of evaluating research in order to reach conclusions regarding medical practice. The need for such reviews is necessitated by the fact that no research is perfect and experts are prone to bias. By combining many studies that fulfill specific criteria, one hopes that the strengths can be multiplied and thus reliable conclusions attained. Potential flaws in this process include the assumptions that underlie the research under examination. If the assumptions, or axioms, upon which the research studies are based, are untenable either scientifically or logically, then the results must be highly suspect regardless of the otherwise high quality of the studies or the systematic reviews. We outline recent criticisms of animal-based research, namely that animal models are failing to predict human responses. It is this failure that is purportedly being corrected via systematic reviews. We then examine the assumption that animal models can predict human outcomes to perturbations such as disease or drugs, even under the best of circumstances. We examine the use of animal models in light of empirical evidence comparing human outcomes to those from animal models, complexity theory, and evolutionary biology. We conclude that even if legitimate criticisms of animal models were addressed, through standardization of protocols and systematic reviews, the animal model would still fail as a predictive modality for human response to drugs and disease. Therefore, systematic reviews and meta-analyses of animal-based research are poor tools for attempting to reach conclusions regarding human interventions. PMID:23372426

Diagnosis of sea breeze cases over the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo with the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homann, C.; Freitas, E. D.

2013-05-01

The sea breeze is a great responsible for the organization of severe weather events, climate patterns and air pollution dispersion over the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), being the knowledge about its correct predictability very important in the region. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model was used to simulate some events of sea breeze propagation over the MASP during the winter season of 2009 (18th and 20th june, 29th august, 02nd September) with the objective to analyze the skill of the model on the predictability of this events using the default parameterizations available in the model and identify some flaws and possible adjustments to be made in the model. For this purpose, the simulation results were compared with the observed velocity and wind direction collected in the "Campo de Marte" Airport - SP. The model had a good response for all simulated days, where the horizontal wind and the vapor mixing ratio indicating correctly the sea breeze arrival over the region. Another important feature observed in the wind moisture fields was the moments that the sea breeze reaches different parts of MASP in response to the Urban Heat Island effect, which can accelerate or prevent the sea breeze propagation depending on location, as observed in other studies, and the relative position of the metropolitan area with respect to the sea-shore and the topography of the region. It was observed that the sea-breeze front reaches the southwest portion of MASP approximately two hours before it reaches the northwest portion.

Development of Operational Wave-Tide-Storm surges Coupling Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S. H.; Park, S. W.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, K. L.

2009-04-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surges, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module. In Korea, especially, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (STORM : Storm Surges/Tide Operational Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The STORM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and STORM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. These two operational models are coupled to simulate wave heights for typhoon case. The sea level and current simulated by storm surge model are used for the input of wave model with 3 hour interval. The coupling simulation between wave and storm surge model carried out for Typhoon Nabi (0514), Shanshan(0613) and Nari (0711) which were effected on Korea directly. We simulated significant wave height simulated by wave model and coupling model and compared difference between uncoupling and coupling cases for each typhoon. When the typhoon Nabi hit at southern coast of Kyushu, predicted significant wave height reached over 10 m. The difference of significant wave height between wave and wave-tide-storm surges model represents large variation at the southwestern coast of Korea with about 0.5 m. Other typhoon cases also show similar results with typhoon Nabi case. For typhoon Shanshan case the difference of significant wave height reached up to 0.3 m. When the typhoon Nari was affected in the southern coast of Korea, predicted significant wave height was about 5m. The typhoon Nari case also shows the difference of significant wave height similar with other typhoon cases. Using the observation from ocean buoy operated by KMA, we compared wave information simulated by wave and wave-storm surges coupling model. The significant wave height simulated by wave-tide-storm surges model shows the tidal modulation features in the western and southern coast of Korea. And the difference of significant wave height between two models reached up to 0.5 m. The coupling effect also can be identified in the wave direction, wave period and wave length. In addition, wave spectrum is also changeable due to coupling effect of wave-tide-storm surges model. The development, testing and application of a coupling module in which wave-tide-storm surges are incorporated within the frame of KMA Ocean prediction system, has been considered as a step forward in respect of ocean forecasting. In addition, advanced wave prediction model will be applicable to the effect of ocean in the weather forecasting system. The main purpose of this study is to show how the coupling module developed and to report on a series of experiments dealing with the sensitivities and real case prediction of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system.

Ranking REACH registered neutral, ionizable and ionic organic chemicals based on their aquatic persistency and mobility.

PubMed

Arp, H P H; Brown, T N; Berger, U; Hale, S E

2017-07-19

The contaminants that have the greatest chances of appearing in drinking water are those that are mobile enough in the aquatic environment to enter drinking water sources and persistent enough to survive treatment processes. Herein a screening procedure to rank neutral, ionizable and ionic organic compounds for being persistent and mobile organic compounds (PMOCs) is presented and applied to the list of industrial substances registered under the EU REACH legislation as of December 2014. This comprised 5155 identifiable, unique organic structures. The minimum cut-off criteria considered for PMOC classification herein are a freshwater half-life >40 days, which is consistent with the REACH definition of freshwater persistency, and a log D oc < 4.5 between pH 4-10 (where D oc is the organic carbon-water distribution coefficient). Experimental data were given the highest priority, followed by data from an array of available quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs), and as a third resort, an original Iterative Fragment Selection (IFS) QSAR. In total, 52% of the unique REACH structures made the minimum criteria to be considered a PMOC, and 21% achieved the highest PMOC ranking (half-life > 40 days, log D oc < 1.0 between pH 4-10). Only 9% of neutral substances received the highest PMOC ranking, compared to 30% of ionizable compounds and 44% of ionic compounds. Predicted hydrolysis products for all REACH parents (contributing 5043 additional structures) were found to have higher PMOC rankings than their parents, due to increased mobility but not persistence. The fewest experimental data available were for ionic compounds; therefore, their ranking is more uncertain than neutral and ionizable compounds. The most sensitive parameter for the PMOC ranking was freshwater persistency, which was also the parameter that QSARs performed the most poorly at predicting. Several prioritized drinking water contaminants in the EU and USA, and other contaminants of concern, were identified as PMOCs. This identification and ranking procedure for PMOCs can be part of a strategy to better identify contaminants that pose a threat to drinking water sources.

Future changes in Yuan River ecohydrology: Individual and cumulative impacts of climates change and cascade hydropower development on runoff and aquatic habitat quality.

PubMed

Wen, Xin; Liu, Zhehua; Lei, Xiaohui; Lin, Rongjie; Fang, Guohua; Tan, Qiaofeng; Wang, Chao; Tian, Yu; Quan, Jin

2018-08-15

The eco-hydrological system in southwestern China is undergoing great changes in recent decades owing to climate change and extensive cascading hydropower exploitation. With a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways, the purpose of this study is to predict the potential future changes in streamflow and fish habitat quality in the Yuan River and quantify the individual and cumulative effect of cascade damming and climate change. The bias corrected and spatial downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) projections are employed to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model and to simulate and predict runoff responses under diverse scenarios. Physical habitat simulation model is established to quantify the relationship between river hydrology and fish habitat, and the relative change rate is used to assess the individual and combined effects of cascade damming and climate change. Mean annual temperature, precipitation and runoff in 2015-2100 show an increasing trend compared with that in 1951-2010, with a particularly pronounced difference between dry and wet years. The ecological habitat quality is improved under cascade hydropower development since that ecological requirement has been incorporated in the reservoir operation policy. As for middle reach, the runoff change from January to August is determined mainly by damming, and climate change influence becomes more pronounced in dry seasons from September to December. Cascade development has an effect on runoff of lower reach only in dry seasons due to the limited regulation capacity of reservoirs, and climate changes have an effect on runoff in wet seasons. Climate changes have a less significant effect on fish habitat quality in middle reach than damming, but a more significant effect in lower reach. In addition, the effect of climate changes on fish habitat quality in lower reach is high in dry seasons but low in flood seasons. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

To transfer or not to transfer? Kinematics and laterality quotient predict interlimb transfer of motor learning.

PubMed

Lefumat, Hannah Z; Vercher, Jean-Louis; Miall, R Chris; Cole, Jonathan; Buloup, Frank; Bringoux, Lionel; Bourdin, Christophe; Sarlegna, Fabrice R

2015-11-01

Humans can remarkably adapt their motor behavior to novel environmental conditions, yet it remains unclear which factors enable us to transfer what we have learned with one limb to the other. Here we tested the hypothesis that interlimb transfer of sensorimotor adaptation is determined by environmental conditions but also by individual characteristics. We specifically examined the adaptation of unconstrained reaching movements to a novel Coriolis, velocity-dependent force field. Right-handed subjects sat at the center of a rotating platform and performed forward reaching movements with the upper limb toward flashed visual targets in prerotation, per-rotation (i.e., adaptation), and postrotation tests. Here only the dominant arm was used during adaptation and interlimb transfer was assessed by comparing performance of the nondominant arm before and after dominant-arm adaptation. Vision and no-vision conditions did not significantly influence interlimb transfer of trajectory adaptation, which on average was significant but limited. We uncovered a substantial heterogeneity of interlimb transfer across subjects and found that interlimb transfer can be qualitatively and quantitatively predicted for each healthy young individual. A classifier showed that in our study, interlimb transfer could be predicted based on the subject's task performance, most notably motor variability during learning, and his or her laterality quotient. Positive correlations suggested that variability of motor performance and lateralization of arm movement control facilitate interlimb transfer. We further show that these individual characteristics can predict the presence and the magnitude of interlimb transfer of left-handers. Overall, this study suggests that individual characteristics shape the way the nervous system can generalize motor learning. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Prospective Evaluation of a Model-Based Dosing Regimen for Amikacin in Preterm and Term Neonates in Clinical Practice

PubMed Central

De Cock, R. F. W.; Allegaert, K.; Vanhaesebrouck, S.; Danhof, M.; Knibbe, C. A. J.

2015-01-01

Based on a previously derived population pharmacokinetic model, a novel neonatal amikacin dosing regimen was developed. The aim of the current study was to prospectively evaluate this dosing regimen. First, early (before and after second dose) therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) observations were evaluated for achieving target trough (<3 mg/liter) and peak (>24 mg/liter) levels. Second, all observed TDM concentrations were compared with model-predicted concentrations, whereby the results of a normalized prediction distribution error (NPDE) were considered. Subsequently, Monte Carlo simulations were performed. Finally, remaining causes limiting amikacin predictability (i.e., prescription errors and disease characteristics of outliers) were explored. In 579 neonates (median birth body weight, 2,285 [range, 420 to 4,850] g; postnatal age 2 days [range, 1 to 30 days]; gestational age, 34 weeks [range, 24 to 41 weeks]), 90.5% of the observed early peak levels reached 24 mg/liter, and 60.2% of the trough levels were <3 mg/liter (93.4% ≤5 mg/liter). Observations were accurately predicted by the model without bias, which was confirmed by the NPDE. Monte Carlo simulations showed that peak concentrations of >24 mg/liter were reached at steady state in almost all patients. Trough values of <3 mg/liter at steady state were documented in 78% to 100% and 45% to 96% of simulated cases with and without ibuprofen coadministration, respectively; suboptimal trough levels were found in patients with postnatal age <14 days and current weight of >2,000 g. Prospective evaluation of a model-based neonatal amikacin dosing regimen resulted in optimized peak and trough concentrations in almost all patients. Slightly adapted dosing for patient subgroups with suboptimal trough levels was proposed. This model-based approach improves neonatal dosing individualization. PMID:26248375

Increased NT-proANP predicts risk of congestive heart failure in Cavalier King Charles spaniels with mitral regurgitation caused by myxomatous valve disease.

PubMed

Eriksson, Anders S; Häggström, Jens; Pedersen, Henrik Duelund; Hansson, Kerstin; Järvinen, Anna-Kaisa; Haukka, Jari; Kvart, Clarence

2014-09-01

To evaluate the predictive value of plasma N-terminal pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (NT-proANP) and nitric oxide end-products (NOx) as markers for progression of mitral regurgitation caused by myxomatous mitral valve disease. Seventy-eight privately owned Cavalier King Charles spaniels with naturally occurring myxomatous mitral valve disease. Prospective longitudinal study comprising 312 measurements over a 4.5 year period. Clinical values were recorded, NT-proANP concentrations were measured by radioimmunoassay, and NOx were analyzed colorimetrically. To predict congestive heart failure (CHF), Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates were constructed. The hazard ratio for NT-proANP (per 1000 pmol/l increase) to predict future CHF was 6.7 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-12.5; p < 0.001). The median time to CHF for dogs with NT-proANP levels >1000 pmol/l was 11 months (95% confidence interval, 5.6-12.6 months), compared to 54 months (46 - infinity) for dogs with concentrations ≤ 1000 pmol/l (p < 0.001). Due to intra- and inter-individual variability, most corresponding analyses for NOx were insignificant but dogs reaching CHF had a lower mean NOx concentration than dogs not reaching CHF (23 vs. 28 μmol/l, p = 0.016). Risk of CHF increased with increase in heart rate (>130 beats per minute) and grade of murmur (≥ 3/6). The risk of CHF due to mitral regurgitation is increased in dogs with blood NT-proANP concentrations above 1000 pmol/l. Measurement of NT-proANP can be a valuable tool to identify dogs that may develop CHF within months. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Transport of 3,5,6-Trichloro-2-Pyridinol Into Saliva Using a Combination Experimental and Computational Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Jordan Ned; Carver, Zana A.; Weber, Thomas J.

A combination experimental and computational approach was developed to predict chemical transport into saliva. A serous-acinar chemical transport assay was established to measure chemical transport with non-physiological (standard cell culture medium) and physiological (using surrogate plasma and saliva medium) conditions using 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy) a metabolite of the pesticide chlorpyrifos. High levels of TCPy protein binding was observed in cell culture medium and rat plasma resulting in different TCPy transport behaviors in the two experimental conditions. In the non-physiological transport experiment, TCPy reached equilibrium at equivalent concentrations in apical and basolateral chambers. At higher TCPy doses, increased unbound TCPy was observed,more » and TCPy concentrations in apical and basolateral chambers reached equilibrium faster than lower doses, suggesting only unbound TCPy is able to cross the cellular monolayer. In the physiological experiment, TCPy transport was slower than non-physiological conditions, and equilibrium was achieved at different concentrations in apical and basolateral chambers at a comparable ratio (0.034) to what was previously measured in rats dosed with TCPy (saliva:blood ratio: 0.049). A cellular transport computational model was developed based on TCPy protein binding kinetics and accurately simulated all transport experiments using different permeability coefficients for the two experimental conditions (1.4 vs 0.4 cm/hr for non-physiological and physiological experiments, respectively). The computational model was integrated into a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and accurately predicted TCPy concentrations in saliva of rats dosed with TCPy. Overall, this study demonstrates an approach to predict chemical transport in saliva potentially increasing the utility of salivary biomonitoring in the future.« less

[(18)F]FDG PET Neuroimaging Predicts Pentylenetetrazole (PTZ) Kindling Outcome in Rats.

PubMed

Bascuñana, Pablo; Javela, Julián; Delgado, Mercedes; Fernández de la Rosa, Rubén; Shiha, Ahmed Anis; García-García, Luis; Pozo, Miguel Ángel

2016-10-01

Epileptogenesis, i.e., development of epilepsy, involves a number of processes that alter the brain function in the way that triggers spontaneous seizures. Kindling is one of the most used animal models of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) and epileptogenesis, although chemical kindling suffers from high inter-assay success unpredictability. This study was aimed to analyze the eventual regional brain metabolic changes during epileptogenesis in the pentylenetetrazole (PTZ) kindling model in order to obtain a predictive kindling outcome parameter. In vivo longitudinal positron emission tomography (PET) scans with 2-deoxy-2-[(18)F]fluoro-D-glucose ([(18)F]FDG) along the PTZ kindling protocol (35 mg/kg intraperitoneally (i.p.), 18 sessions) in adult male rats were performed in order to evaluate the regional brain metabolism. The half of the PTZ-injected rats reached the kindled state. In addition, a significant decrease of [(18)F]FDG uptake at the end of the protocol in most of the brain structures of kindled animals was found, reflecting the characteristic epilepsy-associated hypometabolism. However, PTZ-injected animals but not reaching the kindled state did not show this widespread brain hypometabolism. Retrospective analysis of the data revealed that hippocampal [(18)F]FDG uptake normalized to pons turned out to be a predictive index of the kindling outcome. Thus, a 19.06 % reduction (p = 0.008) of the above parameter was found in positively kindled rats compared to non-kindled ones just after the fifth PTZ session. Non-invasive PET neuroimaging was a useful tool for discerning epileptogenesis progression in this animal model. Particularly, the [(18)F]FDG uptake of the hippocampus proved to be an early predictive parameter to differentiate resistant and non-resistant animals to the PTZ kindling.

Prediction of Acoustic Loads Generated by Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perez, Linamaria; Allgood, Daniel C.

2011-01-01

NASA Stennis Space Center is one of the nation's premier facilities for conducting large-scale rocket engine testing. As liquid rocket engines vary in size, so do the acoustic loads that they produce. When these acoustic loads reach very high levels they may cause damages both to humans and to actual structures surrounding the testing area. To prevent these damages, prediction tools are used to estimate the spectral content and levels of the acoustics being generated by the rocket engine plumes and model their propagation through the surrounding atmosphere. Prior to the current work, two different acoustic prediction tools were being implemented at Stennis Space Center, each having their own advantages and disadvantages depending on the application. Therefore, a new prediction tool was created, using NASA SP-8072 handbook as a guide, which would replicate the same prediction methods as the previous codes, but eliminate any of the drawbacks the individual codes had. Aside from replicating the previous modeling capability in a single framework, additional modeling functions were added thereby expanding the current modeling capability. To verify that the new code could reproduce the same predictions as the previous codes, two verification test cases were defined. These verification test cases also served as validation cases as the predicted results were compared to actual test data.

Probabilistic Prediction of Riverine Bathymetry

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

planned a substantial data field collection effort on the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River near Richland, WA, which represents an ideal testing...4 Figure 2. 82-km Hanford Reach of the Columbia River (WA) IMPACT/APPLICATIONS The developed methods are directly applicable to video

Significance of river-aquifer interactions for reach-scale thermal patterns and trout growth potential in the Motueka River, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, Dean A.; Young, Roger G.

2009-02-01

To assess whether reaches of the Motueka River (New Zealand) that gain water from groundwater were likely to represent significant cold-water refugia for brown trout during periods of high water temperatures, water temperature was monitored for more than 18 months in two gaining reaches of the Motueka River and three reaches that were predicted to be losing water to groundwater. These data were used to predict brown trout ( Salmo trutta) growth in gaining and losing reaches. Groundwater inputs had a small effect on water temperature at the reach-scale and modelling suggests that the differences observed were unlikely to result in appreciable differences in trout growth. Several coldwater patches were identified within the study reach that were up to 3.5°C cooler than the mainstem, but these were generally shallow and were unlikely to provide refuge for adult trout. The exception was Hinetai Spring, which had a mean water temperature of close to 16°C during the period January-March, when temperatures in the mainstem regularly exceeded 19°C. Trout were observed within the cold-water plume at the mouth of Hinetai Stream, which would allow them to thermoregulate when mainstem temperatures are unfavourable while still being able to capitalise on food resources available in the mainstem.

Impact and Effectiveness of a Stand-Alone NRT Starter Kit in a Statewide Tobacco Cessation Program.

PubMed

Kerr, Amy N; Schillo, Barbara A; Keller, Paula A; Lachter, Randi B; Lien, Rebecca K; Zook, Heather G

2018-01-01

To examine 2-week nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) starter kit quit outcomes and predictors and the impact of adding this new service on treatment reach. Observational study of a 1-year cohort of QUITPLAN Services enrollees using registration and utilization data and follow-up outcome survey data of a subset of enrollees who received NRT starter kits. ClearWay Minnesota's QUITPLAN Services provides a quit line that is available to uninsured and underinsured Minnesotans and NRT starter kits (a free 2-week supply of patches, gum, or lozenges) that are available to all Minnesota tobacco users. A total of 15 536 adult QUITPLAN Services enrollees and 818 seven-month follow-up survey NRT starter kit respondents. Treatment reach for all services and tobacco quit outcomes and predictors for starter kit recipients. Descriptive analyses, χ 2 analyses, and logistic regression. Treatment reach increased 3-fold after adding the 2-week NRT starter kit service option to QUITPLAN Services compared to the prior year (1.86% vs 0.59%). Among all participants enrolling in QUITPLAN services during a 1-year period, 83.8% (13 026/15 536) registered for a starter kit. Among starter kit respondents, 25.6% reported being quit for 30 days at the 7-month follow-up. After controlling for other factors, using all NRT and selecting more cessation services predicted quitting. An NRT starter kit brought more tobacco users to QUITPLAN services, demonstrating interest in cessation services separate from phone counseling. The starter kit produced high quit rates, comparable to the quit line in the same time period. Cessation service providers may want to consider introducing starter kits to reach more tobacco users and ultimately improve population health.

The benefits and tradeoffs for varied high-severity injury risk thresholds for advanced automatic crash notification systems.

PubMed

Bahouth, George; Graygo, Jill; Digges, Kennerly; Schulman, Carl; Baur, Peter

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study are to (1) characterize the population of crashes meeting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-recommended 20% risk of Injury Severity Score (ISS)>15 injury and (2) explore the positive and negative effects of an advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) system whose threshold for high-risk indications is 10% versus 20%. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to predict the occurrence of motor vehicle crash injuries at both the ISS>15 and Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ level. Models were trained using crash characteristics recommended by the CDC Committee on Advanced Automatic Collision Notification and Triage of the Injured Patient. Each model was used to assign the probability of severe injury (defined as MAIS 3+ or ISS>15 injury) to a subset of NASS-CDS cases based on crash attributes. Subsequently, actual AIS and ISS levels were compared with the predicted probability of injury to determine the extent to which the seriously injured had corresponding probabilities exceeding the 10% and 20% risk thresholds. Models were developed using an 80% sample of NASS-CDS data from 2002 to 2012 and evaluations were performed using the remaining 20% of cases from the same period. Within the population of seriously injured (i.e., those having one or more AIS 3 or higher injuries), the number of occupants whose injury risk did not exceed the 10% and 20% thresholds were estimated to be 11,700 and 18,600, respectively, each year using the MAIS 3+ injury model. For the ISS>15 model, 8,100 and 11,000 occupants sustained ISS>15 injuries yet their injury probability did not reach the 10% and 20% probability for severe injury respectively. Conversely, model predictions suggested that, at the 10% and 20% thresholds, 207,700 and 55,400 drivers respectively would be incorrectly flagged as injured when their injuries had not reached the AIS 3 level. For the ISS>15 model, 87,300 and 41,900 drivers would be incorrectly flagged as injured when injury severity had not reached the ISS>15 injury level. This article provides important information comparing the expected positive and negative effects of an AACN system with thresholds at the 10% and 20% levels using 2 outcome metrics. Overall, results suggest that the 20% risk threshold would not provide a useful notification to improve the quality of care for a large number of seriously injured crash victims. Alternately, a lower threshold may increase the over triage rate. Based on the vehicle damage observed for crashes reaching and exceeding the 10% risk threshold, we anticipate that rescue services would have been deployed based on current Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) practices.

Virtual Morris task responses in individuals in an abstinence phase from alcohol.

PubMed

Ceccanti, Mauro; Coriale, Giovanna; Hamilton, Derek A; Carito, Valentina; Coccurello, Roberto; Scalese, Bruna; Ciafrè, Stefania; Codazzo, Claudia; Messina, Marisa Patrizia; Chaldakov, George N; Fiore, Marco

2018-02-01

The present study was aimed at examining spatial learning and memory, in 33 men and 12 women with alcohol use disorder (AUD) undergoing ethanol detoxification, by using a virtual Morris task. As controls, we recruited 29 men and 10 women among episodic drinkers without a history of alcohol addiction or alcohol-related diseases. Elevated latency to the first movement in all trials was observed only in AUD persons; furthermore, control women had longer latencies compared with control men. Increased time spent to reach the hidden platform in the learning phase was found for women of both groups compared with men, in particular during trial 3. As predicted, AUD persons (more evident in men) spent less time in the target quadrant during the probe trial; however, AUD women had longer latencies to reach the platform in the visible condition during trials 6 and 7 that resulted in a greater distance moved. As for the probe trial, men of both groups showed increased virtual locomotion compared with the women of both groups. The present investigation confirms and extends previous studies showing (i) different gender responses in spatial learning tasks, (ii) some alterations due to alcohol addiction in virtual spatial learning, and (iii) differences between AUD men and AUD women in spatial-behaviour-related paradigms.

Predicting spatial distribution of postfire debris flows and potential consequences for native trout in headwater streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedell, Edwin R; Gresswell, Bob; McMahon, Thomas E.

2015-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and degradation and invasion of nonnative species have restricted the distribution of native trout. Many trout populations are limited to headwater streams where negative effects of predicted climate change, including reduced stream flow and increased risk of catastrophic fires, may further jeopardize their persistence. Headwater streams in steep terrain are especially susceptible to disturbance associated with postfire debris flows, which have led to local extirpation of trout populations in some systems. We conducted a reach-scale spatial analysis of debris-flow risk among 11 high-elevation watersheds of the Colorado Rocky Mountains occupied by isolated populations of Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus). Stream reaches at high risk of disturbance by postfire debris flow were identified with the aid of a qualitative model based on 4 primary initiating and transport factors (hillslope gradient, flow accumulation pathways, channel gradient, and valley confinement). This model was coupled with a spatially continuous survey of trout distributions in these stream networks to assess the predicted extent of trout population disturbances related to debris flows. In the study systems, debris-flow potential was highest in the lower and middle reaches of most watersheds. Colorado River Cutthroat Trout occurred in areas of high postfire debris-flow risk, but they were never restricted to those areas. Postfire debris flows could extirpate trout from local reaches in these watersheds, but trout populations occupy refugia that should allow recolonization of interconnected, downstream reaches. Specific results of our study may not be universally applicable, but our risk assessment approach can be applied to assess postfire debris-flow risk for stream reaches in other watersheds.

Effects of underestimating the kinematics of trunk rotation on simultaneous reaching movements: predictions of a biomechanical model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Rotation of the torso while reaching produces torques (e.g., Coriolis torque) that deviate the arm from its planned trajectory. To ensure an accurate reaching movement, the brain may take these perturbing torques into account during movement planning or, alternatively, it may correct hand trajectory during movement execution. Irrespective of the process selected, it is expected that an underestimation of trunk rotation would likely induce inaccurate shoulder and elbow torques, resulting in hand deviation. Nonetheless, it is still undetermined to what extent a small error in the perception of trunk rotations, translating into an inappropriate selection of motor commands, would affect reaching accuracy. Methods To investigate, we adapted a biomechanical model (J Neurophysiol 89: 276-289, 2003) to predict the consequences of underestimating trunk rotations on right hand reaching movements performed during either clockwise or counter clockwise torso rotations. Results The results revealed that regardless of the degree to which the torso rotation was underestimated, the amplitude of hand deviation was much larger for counter clockwise rotations than for clockwise rotations. This was attributed to the fact that the Coriolis and centripetal joint torques were acting in the same direction during counter clockwise rotation yet in opposite directions during clockwise rotations, effectively cancelling each other out. Conclusions These findings suggest that in order to anticipate and compensate for the interaction torques generated during torso rotation while reaching, the brain must have an accurate prediction of torso rotation kinematics. The present study proposes that when designing upper limb prostheses controllers, adding a sensor to monitor trunk kinematics may improve prostheses control and performance. PMID:23758968

Predicting paclitaxel-induced neutropenia using the DMET platform.

PubMed

Nieuweboer, Annemieke J M; Smid, Marcel; de Graan, Anne-Joy M; Elbouazzaoui, Samira; de Bruijn, Peter; Martens, John W; Mathijssen, Ron H J; van Schaik, Ron H N

2015-01-01

The use of paclitaxel in cancer treatment is limited by paclitaxel-induced neutropenia. We investigated the ability of genetic variation in drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters to predict hematological toxicity. Using a discovery and validation approach, we identified a pharmacogenetic predictive model for neutropenia. For this, a drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters plus DNA chip was used, which contains 1936 SNPs in 225 metabolic enzyme and drug-transporter genes. Our 10-SNP model in 279 paclitaxel-dosed patients reached 43% sensitivity in the validation cohort. Analysis in 3-weekly treated patients only resulted in improved sensitivity of 79%, with a specificity of 33%. None of our models reached statistical significance. Our drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters-based SNP-models are currently of limited value for predicting paclitaxel-induced neutropenia in clinical practice. Original submitted 9 March 2015; Revision submitted 20 May 2015.

A negative relationship between ventral striatal loss anticipation response and impulsivity in borderline personality disorder.

PubMed

Herbort, Maike C; Soch, Joram; Wüstenberg, Torsten; Krauel, Kerstin; Pujara, Maia; Koenigs, Michael; Gallinat, Jürgen; Walter, Henrik; Roepke, Stefan; Schott, Björn H

2016-01-01

Patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) frequently exhibit impulsive behavior, and self-reported impulsivity is typically higher in BPD patients when compared to healthy controls. Previous functional neuroimaging studies have suggested a link between impulsivity, the ventral striatal response to reward anticipation, and prediction errors. Here we investigated the striatal neural response to monetary gain and loss anticipation and their relationship with impulsivity in 21 female BPD patients and 23 age-matched female healthy controls using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants performed a delayed monetary incentive task in which three categories of objects predicted a potential gain, loss, or neutral outcome. Impulsivity was assessed using the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11). Compared to healthy controls, BPD patients exhibited significantly reduced fMRI responses of the ventral striatum/nucleus accumbens (VS/NAcc) to both reward-predicting and loss-predicting cues. BIS-11 scores showed a significant positive correlation with the VS/NAcc reward anticipation responses in healthy controls, and this correlation, while also nominally positive, failed to reach significance in BPD patients. BPD patients, on the other hand, exhibited a significantly negative correlation between ventral striatal loss anticipation responses and BIS-11 scores, whereas this correlation was significantly positive in healthy controls. Our results suggest that patients with BPD show attenuated anticipation responses in the VS/NAcc and, furthermore, that higher impulsivity in BPD patients might be related to impaired prediction of aversive outcomes.

Gene expression models for prediction of longitudinal dispersion coefficient in streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sattar, Ahmed M. A.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2015-05-01

Longitudinal dispersion is the key hydrologic process that governs transport of pollutants in natural streams. It is critical for spill action centers to be able to predict the pollutant travel time and break-through curves accurately following accidental spills in urban streams. This study presents a novel gene expression model for longitudinal dispersion developed using 150 published data sets of geometric and hydraulic parameters in natural streams in the United States, Canada, Europe, and New Zealand. The training and testing of the model were accomplished using randomly-selected 67% (100 data sets) and 33% (50 data sets) of the data sets, respectively. Gene expression programming (GEP) is used to develop empirical relations between the longitudinal dispersion coefficient and various control variables, including the Froude number which reflects the effect of reach slope, aspect ratio, and the bed material roughness on the dispersion coefficient. Two GEP models have been developed, and the prediction uncertainties of the developed GEP models are quantified and compared with those of existing models, showing improved prediction accuracy in favor of GEP models. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed for further verification of the developed GEP models. The main reason for the higher accuracy of the GEP models compared to the existing regression models is that exponents of the key variables (aspect ratio and bed material roughness) are not constants but a function of the Froude number. The proposed relations are both simple and accurate and can be effectively used to predict the longitudinal dispersion coefficients in natural streams.

Application of the Rosner-Colditz Risk Prediction Model to Estimate Sexual Orientation Group Disparities in Breast Cancer Risk in a U.S. Cohort of Premenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Austin, S. Bryn; Pazaris, Mathew J.; Rosner, Bernard; Bowen, Deborah; Rich-Edwards, Janet; Spiegelman, Donna

2012-01-01

Background Lesbian and bisexual women may be at greater risk of breast cancer than heterosexual women during the premenopausal period due to disparities in risk factors. Methods With 16 years of prospective data from a large cohort of U.S. women ages 25–58 years, we conducted a breast cancer risk assessment for 87,392 premenopausal women by applying the Rosner-Colditz biomathematical risk-prediction model to estimate breast cancer risk based on known risk factors. Based on each woman’s comprehensive risk factor profile, we calculated the predicted one-year incidence rate (IR) per 100,000 person-years and estimated incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for lesbian and bisexual women compared to heterosexual women. Results 87,392 premenopausal women provided 1,091,871 person-years of data included in analyses. Mean predicted one-year breast cancer IRs per 100,000 person-years for each sexual orientation group were: heterosexual 122.55, lesbian 131.61, and bisexual 131.72. IRs were significantly elevated in both lesbian (IRR 1.06; 95 CI 1.06, 1.06) and bisexual (IRR 1.10; 95% CI 1.10, 1.10) women compared to heterosexual women. Conclusions Our findings suggest both lesbian and bisexual women have slightly elevated predicted breast cancer incidence compared to heterosexual women throughout the premenopausal period. Impact Health professionals must ensure that breast cancer prevention efforts are reaching these women. As more health systems around the country collect data on patient sexual orientation, the National Cancer Institute’s SEER cancer registry should add this information to its data system to monitor progress in reducing sexual orientation-related disparities in cancer incidence and mortality. PMID:23035180

Selecting the minimum prediction base of historical data to perform 5-year predictions of the cancer burden: The GoF-optimal method.

PubMed

Valls, Joan; Castellà, Gerard; Dyba, Tadeusz; Clèries, Ramon

2015-06-01

Predicting the future burden of cancer is a key issue for health services planning, where a method for selecting the predictive model and the prediction base is a challenge. A method, named here Goodness-of-Fit optimal (GoF-optimal), is presented to determine the minimum prediction base of historical data to perform 5-year predictions of the number of new cancer cases or deaths. An empirical ex-post evaluation exercise for cancer mortality data in Spain and cancer incidence in Finland using simple linear and log-linear Poisson models was performed. Prediction bases were considered within the time periods 1951-2006 in Spain and 1975-2007 in Finland, and then predictions were made for 37 and 33 single years in these periods, respectively. The performance of three fixed different prediction bases (last 5, 10, and 20 years of historical data) was compared to that of the prediction base determined by the GoF-optimal method. The coverage (COV) of the 95% prediction interval and the discrepancy ratio (DR) were calculated to assess the success of the prediction. The results showed that (i) models using the prediction base selected through GoF-optimal method reached the highest COV and the lowest DR and (ii) the best alternative strategy to GoF-optimal was the one using the base of prediction of 5-years. The GoF-optimal approach can be used as a selection criterion in order to find an adequate base of prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive evaluation of size restrictions as management strategies for tennessee reservoir crappie fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isermann, D.A.; Sammons, S.M.; Bettoli, P.W.; Churchill, T.N.

2002-01-01

We evaluated the potential effect of minimum size restrictions on crappies Pomoxis spp. in 12 large Tennessee reservoirs. A Beverton-Holt equilibrium yield model was used to predict and compare the response of these fisheries to three minimum size restrictions: 178 mm (i.e., pragmatically, no size limit), 229 mm, and the current statewide limit of 254 mm. The responses of crappie fisheries to size limits differed among reservoirs and varied with rates of conditional natural mortality (CM). Based on model results, crappie fisheries fell into one of three response categories: (1) In some reservoirs (N = 5), 254-mm and 229-mm limits would benefit the fishery in terms of yield if CM were low (30%); the associated declines in the number of crappies harvested would be significant but modest when compared with those in other reservoirs. (2) In other reservoirs (N = 6), little difference in yield existed among size restrictions at low to intermediate rates of CM (30-40%). In these reservoirs, a 229-mm limit was predicted to be a more beneficial regulation than the current 254-mm limit. (3) In the remaining reservoir, Tellico, size limits negatively affected all three harvest statistics. Generally, yield was negatively affected by size limits in all populations at a CM of 50%. The number of crappies reaching 300 mm was increased by size limits in most model scenarios: however, associated declines in the total number of crappies harvested often outweighed the benefits to size structure when CM was 40% or higher. When crappie growth was fast (reaching 254 mm in less than 3 years) and CM was low (30%), size limits were most effective in balancing increases in yield and size structure against declines in the total number of crappies harvested. The variability in predicted size-limit responses observed among Tennessee reservoirs suggests that using a categorical approach to applying size limits to crappie fisheries within a state or region would likely be a more effective management strategy than implementing a single, areawide regulation.

Dispersion of Fukushima radionuclides in the global atmosphere and the ocean.

PubMed

Povinec, P P; Gera, M; Holý, K; Hirose, K; Lujaniené, G; Nakano, M; Plastino, W; Sýkora, I; Bartok, J; Gažák, M

2013-11-01

Large quantities of radionuclides were released in March-April 2011 during the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to the atmosphere and the ocean. Atmospheric and marine modeling has been carried out to predict the dispersion of radionuclides worldwide, to compare the predicted and measured radionuclide concentrations, and to assess the impact of the accident on the environment. Atmospheric Lagrangian dispersion modeling was used to simulate the dispersion of (137)Cs over America and Europe. Global ocean circulation model was applied to predict the dispersion of (137)Cs in the Pacific Ocean. The measured and simulated (137)Cs concentrations in atmospheric aerosols and in seawater are compared with global fallout and the Chernobyl accident, which represent the main sources of the pre-Fukushima radionuclide background in the environment. The radionuclide concentrations in the atmosphere have been negligible when compared with the Chernobyl levels. The maximum (137)Cs concentration in surface waters of the open Pacific Ocean will be around 20 Bq/m(3). The plume will reach the US coast 4-5 y after the accident, however, the levels will be below 3 Bq/m(3). All the North Pacific Ocean will be labeled with Fukushima (137)Cs 10 y after the accident with concentration bellow 1 Bq/m(3). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classification of Kiwifruit Grades Based on Fruit Shape Using a Single Camera

PubMed Central

Fu, Longsheng; Sun, Shipeng; Li, Rui; Wang, Shaojin

2016-01-01

This study aims to demonstrate the feasibility for classifying kiwifruit into shape grades by adding a single camera to current Chinese sorting lines equipped with weight sensors. Image processing methods are employed to calculate fruit length, maximum diameter of the equatorial section, and projected area. A stepwise multiple linear regression method is applied to select significant variables for predicting minimum diameter of the equatorial section and volume and to establish corresponding estimation models. Results show that length, maximum diameter of the equatorial section and weight are selected to predict the minimum diameter of the equatorial section, with the coefficient of determination of only 0.82 when compared to manual measurements. Weight and length are then selected to estimate the volume, which is in good agreement with the measured one with the coefficient of determination of 0.98. Fruit classification based on the estimated minimum diameter of the equatorial section achieves a low success rate of 84.6%, which is significantly improved using a linear combination of the length/maximum diameter of the equatorial section and projected area/length ratios, reaching 98.3%. Thus, it is possible for Chinese kiwifruit sorting lines to reach international standards of grading kiwifruit on fruit shape classification by adding a single camera. PMID:27376292

Using a generalized linear mixed model approach to explore the role of age, motor proficiency, and cognitive styles in children's reach estimation accuracy.

PubMed

Caçola, Priscila M; Pant, Mohan D

2014-10-01

The purpose was to use a multi-level statistical technique to analyze how children's age, motor proficiency, and cognitive styles interact to affect accuracy on reach estimation tasks via Motor Imagery and Visual Imagery. Results from the Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis (GLMM) indicated that only the 7-year-old age group had significant random intercepts for both tasks. Motor proficiency predicted accuracy in reach tasks, and cognitive styles (object scale) predicted accuracy in the motor imagery task. GLMM analysis is suitable to explore age and other parameters of development. In this case, it allowed an assessment of motor proficiency interacting with age to shape how children represent, plan, and act on the environment.

A model to predict disease progression in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD): the ADPKD Outcomes Model.

PubMed

McEwan, Phil; Bennett Wilton, Hayley; Ong, Albert C M; Ørskov, Bjarne; Sandford, Richard; Scolari, Francesco; Cabrera, Maria-Cristina V; Walz, Gerd; O'Reilly, Karl; Robinson, Paul

2018-02-13

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the leading inheritable cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD); however, the natural course of disease progression is heterogeneous between patients. This study aimed to develop a natural history model of ADPKD that predicted progression rates and long-term outcomes in patients with differing baseline characteristics. The ADPKD Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) was developed using available patient-level data from the placebo arm of the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of ADPKD and its Outcomes Study (TEMPO 3:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00428948). Multivariable regression equations estimating annual rates of ADPKD progression, in terms of total kidney volume (TKV) and estimated glomerular filtration rate, formed the basis of the lifetime patient-level simulation model. Outputs of the ADPKD-OM were compared against external data sources to validate model accuracy and generalisability to other ADPKD patient populations, then used to predict long-term outcomes in a cohort matched to the overall TEMPO 3:4 study population. A cohort with baseline patient characteristics consistent with TEMPO 3:4 was predicted to reach ESRD at a mean age of 52 years. Most patients (85%) were predicted to reach ESRD by the age of 65 years, with many progressing to ESRD earlier in life (18, 36 and 56% by the age of 45, 50 and 55 years, respectively). Consistent with previous research and clinical opinion, analyses supported the selection of baseline TKV as a prognostic factor for ADPKD progression, and demonstrated its value as a strong predictor of future ESRD risk. Validation exercises and illustrative analyses confirmed the ability of the ADPKD-OM to accurately predict disease progression towards ESRD across a range of clinically-relevant patient profiles. The ADPKD-OM represents a robust tool to predict natural disease progression and long-term outcomes in ADPKD patients, based on readily available and/or measurable clinical characteristics. In conjunction with clinical judgement, it has the potential to support decision-making in research and clinical practice.

Macaques can predict social outcomes from facial expressions.

PubMed

Waller, Bridget M; Whitehouse, Jamie; Micheletta, Jérôme

2016-09-01

There is widespread acceptance that facial expressions are useful in social interactions, but empirical demonstration of their adaptive function has remained elusive. Here, we investigated whether macaques can use the facial expressions of others to predict the future outcomes of social interaction. Crested macaques (Macaca nigra) were shown an approach between two unknown individuals on a touchscreen and were required to choose between one of two potential social outcomes. The facial expressions of the actors were manipulated in the last frame of the video. One subject reached the experimental stage and accurately predicted different social outcomes depending on which facial expressions the actors displayed. The bared-teeth display (homologue of the human smile) was most strongly associated with predicted friendly outcomes. Contrary to our predictions, screams and threat faces were not associated more with conflict outcomes. Overall, therefore, the presence of any facial expression (compared to neutral) caused the subject to choose friendly outcomes more than negative outcomes. Facial expression in general, therefore, indicated a reduced likelihood of social conflict. The findings dispute traditional theories that view expressions only as indicators of present emotion and instead suggest that expressions form part of complex social interactions where individuals think beyond the present.

Predictive information speeds up visual awareness in an individuation task by modulating threshold setting, not processing efficiency.

PubMed

De Loof, Esther; Van Opstal, Filip; Verguts, Tom

2016-04-01

Theories on visual awareness claim that predicted stimuli reach awareness faster than unpredicted ones. In the current study, we disentangle whether prior information about the upcoming stimulus affects visual awareness of stimulus location (i.e., individuation) by modulating processing efficiency or threshold setting. Analogous research on stimulus identification revealed that prior information modulates threshold setting. However, as identification and individuation are two functionally and neurally distinct processes, the mechanisms underlying identification cannot simply be extrapolated directly to individuation. The goal of this study was therefore to investigate how individuation is influenced by prior information about the upcoming stimulus. To do so, a drift diffusion model was fitted to estimate the processing efficiency and threshold setting for predicted versus unpredicted stimuli in a cued individuation paradigm. Participants were asked to locate a picture, following a cue that was congruent, incongruent or neutral with respect to the picture's identity. Pictures were individuated faster in the congruent and neutral condition compared to the incongruent condition. In the diffusion model analysis, the processing efficiency was not significantly different across conditions. However, the threshold setting was significantly higher following an incongruent cue compared to both congruent and neutral cues. Our results indicate that predictive information about the upcoming stimulus influences visual awareness by shifting the threshold for individuation rather than by enhancing processing efficiency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

First-principles equation-of-state table of silicon and its effects on high-energy-density plasma simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, S. X.; Gao, R.; Ding, Y.; Collins, L. A.; Kress, J. D.

2017-04-01

Using density-functional theory-based molecular-dynamics simulations, we have investigated the equation of state for silicon in a wide range of plasma density and temperature conditions of ρ =0.001 -500 g /c m3 and T =2000 -108K . With these calculations, we have established a first-principles equation-of-state (FPEOS) table of silicon for high-energy-density (HED) plasma simulations. When compared with the widely used SESAME-EOS model (Table 3810), we find that the FPEOS-predicted Hugoniot is ˜20% softer; for off-Hugoniot plasma conditions, the pressure and internal energy in FPEOS are lower than those of SESAME EOS for temperatures above T ≈ 1-10 eV (depending on density), while the former becomes higher in the low-T regime. The pressure difference between FPEOS and SESAME 3810 can reach to ˜50%, especially in the warm-dense-matter regime. Implementing the FPEOS table of silicon into our hydrocodes, we have studied its effects on Si-target implosions. When compared with the one-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamics simulation using the SESAME 3810 EOS model, the FPEOS simulation showed that (1) the shock speed in silicon is ˜10% slower; (2) the peak density of an in-flight Si shell during implosion is ˜20% higher than the SESAME 3810 simulation; (3) the maximum density reached in the FPEOS simulation is ˜40% higher at the peak compression; and (4) the final areal density and neutron yield are, respectively, ˜30% and ˜70% higher predicted by FPEOS versus the traditional simulation using SESAME 3810. All of these features can be attributed to the larger compressibility of silicon predicted by FPEOS. These results indicate that an accurate EOS table, like the FPEOS presented here, could be essential for the precise design of targets for HED experiments.

First-principles equation-of-state table of silicon and its effects on high-energy-density plasma simulations

DOE PAGES

Hu, S. X.; Gao, R.; Ding, Y.; ...

2017-04-21

Using density-functional theory–based molecular-dynamics simulations, we have investigated the equation of state for silicon in a wide range of plasma density and temperature conditions of ρ=0.001–500g/cm 3 and T=2000–10 8K. With these calculations, we have established a first-principles equation-of-state (FPEOS) table of silicon for high-energy-density (HED) plasma simulations. When compared with the widely used SESAME-EOS model (Table 3810), we find that the FPEOS-predicted Hugoniot is ~20% softer; for off-Hugoniot plasma conditions, the pressure and internal energy in FPEOS are lower than those of SESAME EOS for temperatures above T ≈ 1–10 eV (depending on density), while the former becomes highermore » in the low- T regime. The pressure difference between FPEOS and SESAME 3810 can reach to ~50%, especially in the warm-dense-matter regime. Implementing the FPEOS table of silicon into our hydrocodes, we have studied its effects on Si-target implosions. When compared with the one-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamics simulation using the SESAME 3810 EOS model, the FPEOS simulation showed that (1) the shock speed in silicon is ~10% slower; (2) the peak density of an in-flight Si shell during implosion is ~20% higher than the SESAME 3810 simulation; (3) the maximum density reached in the FPEOS simulation is ~40% higher at the peak compression; and (4) the final areal density and neutron yield are, respectively, ~30% and ~70% higher predicted by FPEOS versus the traditional simulation using SESAME 3810. All of these features can be attributed to the larger compressibility of silicon predicted by FPEOS. Furthermore, these results indicate that an accurate EOS table, like the FPEOS presented here, could be essential for the precise design of targets for HED experiments.« less

First-principles equation-of-state table of silicon and its effects on high-energy-density plasma simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, S. X.; Gao, R.; Ding, Y.

Using density-functional theory–based molecular-dynamics simulations, we have investigated the equation of state for silicon in a wide range of plasma density and temperature conditions of ρ=0.001–500g/cm 3 and T=2000–10 8K. With these calculations, we have established a first-principles equation-of-state (FPEOS) table of silicon for high-energy-density (HED) plasma simulations. When compared with the widely used SESAME-EOS model (Table 3810), we find that the FPEOS-predicted Hugoniot is ~20% softer; for off-Hugoniot plasma conditions, the pressure and internal energy in FPEOS are lower than those of SESAME EOS for temperatures above T ≈ 1–10 eV (depending on density), while the former becomes highermore » in the low- T regime. The pressure difference between FPEOS and SESAME 3810 can reach to ~50%, especially in the warm-dense-matter regime. Implementing the FPEOS table of silicon into our hydrocodes, we have studied its effects on Si-target implosions. When compared with the one-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamics simulation using the SESAME 3810 EOS model, the FPEOS simulation showed that (1) the shock speed in silicon is ~10% slower; (2) the peak density of an in-flight Si shell during implosion is ~20% higher than the SESAME 3810 simulation; (3) the maximum density reached in the FPEOS simulation is ~40% higher at the peak compression; and (4) the final areal density and neutron yield are, respectively, ~30% and ~70% higher predicted by FPEOS versus the traditional simulation using SESAME 3810. All of these features can be attributed to the larger compressibility of silicon predicted by FPEOS. Furthermore, these results indicate that an accurate EOS table, like the FPEOS presented here, could be essential for the precise design of targets for HED experiments.« less

Ovarian stimulation length, number of follicles higher than 17 mm and estradiol on the day of human chorionic gonadotropin administration are risk factors for multiple pregnancy in intrauterine insemination

PubMed Central

MELO, MARCO A.B.; SIMÓN, CARLOS; REMOHÍ, JOSÉ; PELLICER, ANTONIO; MESEGUER, MARCOS

2007-01-01

Aim:  The aim of the present study was to identify the risk factors, their prognostic value on multiple pregnancies (MP) prediction and their thresholds in women undergoing controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) with follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) and intrauterine insemination (IUI). Methods:  A case‐control study was carried out by identifying in our database all the pregnancies reached by donor and conjugal IUI (DIUI and CIUI, respectively), and compared cycle features, patients’ characteristics and sperm analysis results between women achieving single pregnancy (SP) versus MP. The number of gestational sacs, follicular sizes and estradiol levels on the human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) administration day, COH length and semen parameters were obtained from each cycle and compared. Student's t‐tests for mean comparisons, receiver–operator curve (ROC) analysis to determine the predictive value of each parameter on MP achievement and multiple regression analysis to determine single parameter influence were carried out. Results:  Women with MP in IUI stimulated cycles reached the adequate size of the dominant follicle (17 mm) significantly earlier than those achieving SP. Also, the mean follicles number, and estradiol levels on the hCG day were higher in the CIUI and DIUI MP group. Nevertheless, only ROC curve analysis revealed good prognostic value for estradiol and follicles higher than 17 mm. Multiple regression analysis confirmed these results. No feature of the basic sperm analysis, either in the ejaculate or in the prepared sample, was different or predictive of MP. When using donor sperm, different thresholds of follicle number, stimulation length and estradiol in the prediction of MP were noted, in comparison with CIUI. Conclusions:  MP in stimulated IUI cycles are closely associated to stimulation length, number of developed follicles higher than 17 mm on the day of hCG administration and estradiol levels. Also, estradiol has a good predictive value over MP in IUI stimulated cycles. The establishment of clinical thresholds will certainly help in the management of these couples to avoid undesired multiple pregnancies by canceling cycles or converting them into in vitro fertilization procedures. (Reprod Med Biol 2007; 6: 19–26) PMID:29699262

Flood prediction, its risk and mitigation for the Babura River with GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarigan, A. P. M.; Hanie, M. Z.; Khair, H.; Iskandar, R.

2018-03-01

This paper describes the flood prediction along the Babura River, the catchment of which is within the comparatively larger watershed of the Deli River which crosses the centre part of Medan City. The flood plain and ensuing inundation area were simulated using HECRAS based on the available data of rainfall, catchment, and river cross-sections. The results were shown in a GIS format in which the city map of Medan and other infrastructure layers were stacked for spatial analysis. From the resulting GIS, it can be seen that 13 sub-districts were likely affected by the flood, and then the risk calculation of the flood damage could be estimated. In the spirit of flood mitigation thoughts, 6 locations of evacuation centres were identified and 15 evacuation routes were recommended to reach the centres. It is hoped that the flood prediction and its risk estimation in this study will inspire the preparedness of the stakeholders for the probable threat of flood disaster.

Increased Arterial Stiffness is an Independent Predictor of Renal Function Decline in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Younger Than 60 Years.

PubMed

Fountoulakis, Nikolaos; Thakrar, Chiraag; Patel, Kishan; Viberti, Giancarlo; Gnudi, Luigi; Karalliedde, Janaka

2017-03-30

The objective of this study was to evaluate whether aortic pulse wave velocity (Ao-PWV) predicts estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. This prospective single-center cohort study investigated 211 type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with eGFR ≥45 mL/min with a baseline mean age of 60.1 years (range, 30-82 years). The mean±SD baseline eGFR was 85±26.1 mL/min. We divided the cohort into 2 groups above (n=117, "older") and below (n=94, "younger") the mean age to evaluate whether Ao-PWV predicted progression of kidney disease differentially in older and younger patients. The primary end point was reaching a final eGFR below the median for the age group and an eGFR fall ≥1 mL/min per year. Median follow-up was 9 years (range, 3-11 years) and ≈50% of patients in both groups reached the primary end point. In older patients, Ao-PWV was similar in those who did and did not reach the primary end point. By contrast, younger patients who reached the primary end point had a higher Ao-PWV at baseline compared with those who did not (10.8 m/s versus 9.5 m/s, respectively; mean difference of 1.36 m/s [95% CI, 0.38-2.33], P =0.007). Ao-PWV was an independent predictor of the primary end point (incident risk ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.18) after adjustment for traditional risk factors only in younger patients ( P =0.02). A 1m/s increase in Ao-PWV was associated with a mean fall in eGFR of 2.1 mL/min per year (95% CI, 0.09-4.1) independent of other risk factors in younger patients ( P =0.04). Ao-PWV predicts eGFR decline, before the onset of advanced renal dysfunction, and is a potential target for renoprotection in younger patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Predicting geomorphic stability in low-order streams of the western Lake Superior basin

EPA Science Inventory

Width:depth ratios, entrenchment ratios, gradients, and median substrate particle sizes (D50s) were measured in 32 second and third order stream reaches in the western Lake Superior basin, and stream reaches were assigned a Rosgen geomorphic classification. Over 700 measurements ...

Normal-incidence soft X-ray telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spiller, Eberhard; Mccorkle, R. A.; Wilczynski, J. S.; Golub, Leon; Nystrom, G.; Takacs, P. Z.; Welch, C.

1991-01-01

Photos obtained during 5 min of observation time from the flight of a 25-cm-diameter normal-incidence soft-X-ray (63.5 A) telescope on September 11, 1989, are analyzed, and the data are compared to the results expected from tests of the mirror surfaces. These tests cover a range of spatial periods from 25 cm to 1 A. The photos demonstrate a resolution close to the photon shot-noise limit and a reduction in the scattering of the multilayer mirror compared to a single surface for scattering angles above 1 arcmin, corrresponding to surface irregularities with spatial periods below 10 microns. These results are used to predict the possible performance of future telescopes. Sounding rocket observations might be able to reach a resolution around 0.1 arcsec.

The PILGRIM study: in silico modeling of a predictive low glucose management system and feasibility in youth with type 1 diabetes during exercise.

PubMed

Danne, Thomas; Tsioli, Christiana; Kordonouri, Olga; Blaesig, Sarah; Remus, Kerstin; Roy, Anirban; Keenan, Barry; Lee, Scott W; Kaufman, Francine R

2014-06-01

Predictive low glucose management (PLGM) may help prevent hypoglycemia by stopping insulin pump delivery based on predicted sensor glucose values. Hypoglycemic challenges were simulated using the Food and Drug Administration-accepted glucose simulator with 100 virtual patients. PLGM was then tested with a system composed of a Paradigm(®) insulin pump (Medtronic, Northridge, CA), an Enlite™ glucose sensor (Medtronic), and a BlackBerry(®) (Waterloo, ON, Canada)-based controller. Subjects (n=22) on continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (five females, 17 males; median [range] age, 15 [range, 14-20] years; median [range] diabetes duration, 7 [2-14] years; median [range] glycated hemoglobin, 8.0% [6.7-10.4%]) exercised until the PLGM system suspended insulin delivery or until the reference blood glucose value (HemoCue(®); HemoCue GmbH, Großostheim, Germany) reached the predictive suspension threshold setting. PLGM reduced hypoglycemia (<70 mg/dL) in silico by 26.7% compared with no insulin suspension, as opposed to a 5.3% reduction in hypoglycemia with use of low glucose suspend (LGS). The median duration of hypoglycemia (time spent <70 mg/dL) with PLGM was significantly less than with LGS (58 min vs. 101 min, respectively; P<0.001). In the clinical trial the hypoglycemic threshold during exercise was reached in 73% of the patients, and hypoglycemia was prevented in 80% of the successful experiments. The mean (±SD) sensor glucose at predictive suspension was 92±7 mg/dL, resulting in a postsuspension nadir (by HemoCue) of 77±22 mg/dL. The suspension lasted for 90±35 (range, 30-120) min, resulting in a sensor glucose level at insulin resumption of 97±19 mg/dL. In silico modeling and early feasibility data demonstrate that PLGM may further reduce the severity of hypoglycemia beyond that already established for algorithms that use a threshold-based suspension.

Predictive value of background experiences and visual spatial ability testing on laparoscopic baseline performance among residents entering postgraduate surgical training.

PubMed

Louridas, Marisa; Quinn, Lauren E; Grantcharov, Teodor P

2016-03-01

Emerging evidence suggests that despite dedicated practice, not all surgical trainees have the ability to reach technical competency in minimally invasive techniques. While selecting residents that have the ability to reach technical competence is important, evidence to guide the incorporation of technical ability into selection processes is limited. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to evaluate whether background experiences and 2D-3D visual spatial test results are predictive of baseline laparoscopic skill for the novice surgical trainee. First-year residents were studied. Demographic data and background surgical and non-surgical experiences were obtained using a questionnaire. Visual spatial ability was evaluated using the PicSOr, cube comparison (CC) and card rotation (CR) tests. Technical skill was assessed using the camera navigation (LCN) task and laparoscopic circle cut (LCC) task. Resident performance on these technical tasks was compared and correlated with the questionnaire and visual spatial findings. Previous experience in observing laparoscopic procedures was associated with significantly better LCN performance, and experience in navigating the laparoscopic camera was associated with significantly better LCC task results. Residents who scored higher on the CC test demonstrated a more accurate LCN path length score (r s(PL) = -0.36, p = 0.03) and angle path (r s(AP) = -0.426, p = 0.01) score when completing the LCN task. No other significant correlations were found between the visual spatial tests (PicSOr, CC or CR) and LCC performance. While identifying selection tests for incoming surgical trainees that predict technical skill performance is appealing, the surrogate markers evaluated correlate with specific metrics of surgical performance related to a single task but do not appear to reliably predict technical performance of different laparoscopic tasks. Predicting the acquisition of technical skills will require the development of a series of evidence-based tests that measure a number of innate abilities as well as their inherent interactions.

Predictive Modeling and Mapping of Fish Distributions in Small Streams of the Canadian Rocky Mountain Foothills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCleary, R. J.; Hassan, M. A.

2006-12-01

An automated procedure was developed to model spatial fish distributions within small streams in the Foothills of Alberta. Native fish populations and their habitats are susceptible to impacts arising from both industrial forestry and rapid development of petroleum resources in the region. Knowledge of fish distributions and the effects of industrial activities on their habitats is required to help conserve native fish populations. Resource selection function (RSF) models were used to explain presence/absence of fish in small streams. Target species were bull trout, rainbow trout and non-native brook trout. Using GIS, the drainage network was divided into reaches with uniform slope and drainage area and then polygons for each reach were created. Predictor variables described stream size, stream energy, climate and land-use. We identified a set of candidate models and selected the best model using a standard Akaike Information Criteria approach. The best models were validated with two external data sets. Drainage area and basin slope parameters were included in all best models. This finding emphasizes the importance of controlling for the energy dimension at the basin scale in investigations into the effects of land-use on aquatic resources in this transitional landscape between the mountains and plains. The best model for bull trout indicated a relation between the presence of artificial migration barriers in downstream areas and the extirpation of the species from headwater reaches. We produced reach-scale maps by species and summarized this information within all small catchments across the 12,000 km2 study area. These maps had included three categories based on predicted probability of capture for individual reaches. The high probability category had a 78 percent accuracy for correctly predicting both fish present and fish not-present reaches. Basin scale maps highlight specific watersheds likely to support both native bull trout and invasive brook trout, while reach-scale maps indicate specific reaches where interactions between these two species are likely to occur. With regional calibration, this automated modeling and mapping procedure could apply in headwater catchments throughout the Rocky Mountain Foothills and other areas where sporadic waterfalls or other natural migration barriers are not an important feature limiting fish distribution.

Reaction Time Correlations during Eye–Hand Coordination:Behavior and Modeling

PubMed Central

Dean, Heather L.; Martí, Daniel; Tsui, Eva; Rinzel, John; Pesaran, Bijan

2011-01-01

During coordinated eye– hand movements, saccade reaction times (SRTs) and reach reaction times (RRTs) are correlated in humans and monkeys. Reaction times (RTs) measure the degree of movement preparation and can correlate with movement speed and accuracy. However, RTs can also reflect effector nonspecific influences, such as motivation and arousal. We use a combination of behavioral psychophysics and computational modeling to identify plausible mechanisms for correlations in SRTs and RRTs. To disambiguate nonspecific mechanisms from mechanisms specific to movement coordination, we introduce a dual-task paradigm in which a reach and a saccade are cued with a stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA). We then develop several variants of integrate-to-threshold models of RT, which postulate that responses are initiated when the neural activity encoding effector-specific movement preparation reaches a threshold. The integrator models formalize hypotheses about RT correlations and make predictions for how each RT should vary with SOA. To test these hypotheses, we trained three monkeys to perform the eye– hand SOA task and analyzed their SRTs and RRTs. In all three subjects, RT correlations decreased with increasing SOA duration. Additionally, mean SRT decreased with decreasing SOA, revealing facilitation of saccades with simultaneous reaches, as predicted by the model. These results are not consistent with the predictions of the models with common modulation or common input but are compatible with the predictions of a model with mutual excitation between two effector-specific integrators. We propose that RT correlations are not simply attributable to motivation and arousal and are a signature of coordination. PMID:21325507

Predicting river travel time from hydraulic characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jobson, H.E.

2001-01-01

Predicting the effect of a pollutant spill on downstream water quality is primarily dependent on the water velocity, longitudinal mixing, and chemical/physical reactions. Of these, velocity is the most important and difficult to predict. This paper provides guidance on extrapolating travel-time information from one within bank discharge to another. In many cases, a time series of discharge (such as provided by a U.S. Geological Survey stream gauge) will provide an excellent basis for this extrapolation. Otherwise, the accuracy of a travel time extrapolation based on a resistance equation can be greatly improved by assuming the total flow area is composed of two parts, an active and an inactive area. For 60 reaches of 12 rivers with slopes greater than about 0.0002, travel times could be predicted to within about 10% by computing the active flow area using the Manning equation with n = 0.035 and assuming a constant inactive area for each reach. The predicted travel times were not very sensitive to the assumed values of bed slope or channel width.

Hierarchical prediction of industrial water demand based on refined Laspeyres decomposition analysis.

PubMed

Shang, Yizi; Lu, Shibao; Gong, Jiaguo; Shang, Ling; Li, Xiaofei; Wei, Yongping; Shi, Hongwang

2017-12-01

A recent study decomposed the changes in industrial water use into three hierarchies (output, technology, and structure) using a refined Laspeyres decomposition model, and found monotonous and exclusive trends in the output and technology hierarchies. Based on that research, this study proposes a hierarchical prediction approach to forecast future industrial water demand. Three water demand scenarios (high, medium, and low) were then established based on potential future industrial structural adjustments, and used to predict water demand for the structural hierarchy. The predictive results of this approach were compared with results from a grey prediction model (GPM (1, 1)). The comparison shows that the results of the two approaches were basically identical, differing by less than 10%. Taking Tianjin, China, as a case, and using data from 2003-2012, this study predicts that industrial water demand will continuously increase, reaching 580 million m 3 , 776.4 million m 3 , and approximately 1.09 billion m 3 by the years 2015, 2020 and 2025 respectively. It is concluded that Tianjin will soon face another water crisis if no immediate measures are taken. This study recommends that Tianjin adjust its industrial structure with water savings as the main objective, and actively seek new sources of water to increase its supply.

Utilization of spent coffee grounds for isolation and stabilization of Paenibacillus chitinolyticus CKS1 cellulase by immobilization.

PubMed

Buntić, Aneta V; Pavlović, Marija D; Antonović, Dušan G; Šiler-Marinković, Slavica S; Dimitrijević-Branković, Suzana I

2016-08-01

This study has explored the feasibility of using spent coffee grounds as a good supporting material for the Paenibacillus chitinolyticus CKS1 cellulase immobilization. An optimal operational conditions in a batch-adsorption system were found to be: carrier mass of 12 g/L, under the temperature of 45 °C and no pH adjustments. The immobilization yield reached about 71%. An equilibrium establishment between the cellulase and the carrier surface occurred within 45 min, whereas the process kinetics may be predicted by the pseudo-second-order model. An immobilized cellulase preparation expressed very good avicelase activity, this reached up to 2.67 U/g, and revealed an improved storage stability property, compared to free enzyme sample counterpart. The addition of metal ions, such as K(+) and Mg(2+) did not affect positively immobilization yield results, but on the contrary, contributed to an improved bio-activities of the immobilized cellulase, thus may be employed before each enzyme application. The method developed in this study offers a cheap and effective alternative for immediate enzyme isolation from the production medium and its stabilization, compared to other carriers used for the immobilization.

THE EXPANDING ROLE OF PREDICTIVE TOXICOLOGY: AN UPDATE ON THE (Q)SAR MODELS FOR MUTAGENS AND CARCINOGENS.

EPA Science Inventory

Different regulatory schemes worldwide, and in particular the preparation for the new REACH legislation in Europe, increase the reliance on estimation methods for predicting potential chemical hazard.

Distributions in the error space: goal-directed movements described in time and state-space representations.

PubMed

Fisher, Moria E; Huang, Felix C; Wright, Zachary A; Patton, James L

2014-01-01

Manipulation of error feedback has been of great interest to recent studies in motor control and rehabilitation. Typically, motor adaptation is shown as a change in performance with a single scalar metric for each trial, yet such an approach might overlook details about how error evolves through the movement. We believe that statistical distributions of movement error through the extent of the trajectory can reveal unique patterns of adaption and possibly reveal clues to how the motor system processes information about error. This paper describes different possible ordinate domains, focusing on representations in time and state-space, used to quantify reaching errors. We hypothesized that the domain with the lowest amount of variability would lead to a predictive model of reaching error with the highest accuracy. Here we showed that errors represented in a time domain demonstrate the least variance and allow for the highest predictive model of reaching errors. These predictive models will give rise to more specialized methods of robotic feedback and improve previous techniques of error augmentation.

Variation of stream temperature among mesoscale habitats within stream reaches: southern Appalachians

Treesearch

S. Lynsey Long; C. Rhett. Jackson

2014-01-01

Stream mesoscale habitats have systematic topographic relationships to hyporheic flow patterns, which may create predictable temperature variation between mesoscale habitat types. We investigated whether systematic differences in temperature metrics occurred between mesoscale habitats within reaches of small streams tributary to the upper Little Tennessee River,...

Low summer water temperatures influence occurrence of naturalized salmonids across a mountain watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mullner, S.A.; Hubert, W.A.

2005-01-01

We investigated relationships between the absence of salmonids and low summer water temperatures across a 150-km2 Rocky Mountain watershed. A model predicting maximum July water temperature (MJT) from measurements of perennial stream length, wetted width, and midrange basin elevation was developed from temperature data obtained at 20 sites across the watershed. The model was used to predict MJT in 75 reaches across the watershed where salmonids were sampled. The lowest predicted MJT in reaches where age-0 and juvenile-adult brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis were observed was 9??C. The lowest predicted MJT in reaches where age-0 progeny of the genus Oncorhynchus spp. (i.e., rainbow trout O. mykiss or cutthroat trout O. clarkii) were observed was 13??C and where Oncorhynchus spp. adults where observed was 12??C. The probability of occurrence of both age-0 and adult brook trout and Oncorhynchus spp. increased as MJT increased above these thresholds. Our results indicate that low MJT in some portions of a mountain watershed can be related to the absence of salmonids. Consequently, data on MJT may provide managers with a means of assessing where summer water temperatures are not suitable for establishment of naturalized salmonid populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Online Control of Prehension Predicts Performance on a Standardized Motor Assessment Test in 8- to 12-Year-Old Children

PubMed Central

Blanchard, Caroline C. V.; McGlashan, Hannah L.; French, Blandine; Sperring, Rachel J.; Petrocochino, Bianca; Holmes, Nicholas P.

2017-01-01

Goal-directed hand movements are guided by sensory information and may be adjusted ‘online,’ during the movement. If the target of a movement unexpectedly changes position, trajectory corrections can be initiated in as little as 100 ms in adults. This rapid visual online control is impaired in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD), and potentially in other neurodevelopmental conditions. We investigated the visual control of hand movements in children in a ‘center-out’ double-step reaching and grasping task, and examined how parameters of this visuomotor control co-vary with performance on standardized motor tests often used with typically and atypically developing children. Two groups of children aged 8–12 years were asked to reach and grasp an illuminated central ball on a vertically oriented board. On a proportion of trials, and at movement onset, the illumination switched unpredictably to one of four other balls in a center-out configuration (left, right, up, or down). When the target moved, all but one of the children were able to correct their movements before reaching the initial target, at least on some trials, but the latencies to initiate these corrections were longer than those typically reported in the adult literature, ranging from 211 to 581 ms. These later corrections may be due to less developed motor skills in children, or to the increased cognitive and biomechanical complexity of switching movements in four directions. In the first group (n = 187), reaching and grasping parameters significantly predicted standardized movement scores on the MABC-2, most strongly for the aiming and catching component. In the second group (n = 85), these same parameters did not significantly predict scores on the DCDQ′07 parent questionnaire. Our reaching and grasping task provides a sensitive and continuous measure of movement skill that predicts scores on standardized movement tasks used to screen for DCD. PMID:28360874

A Comparison of Intraverbal and Listener Training for Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

Kodak, Tiffany; Paden, Amber R

2015-06-01

The present investigation compared acquisition of intraverbals and listener behavior by function, feature, and class (FFC) for two children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We also measured tacts during listener training to evaluate whether higher levels of tacts predicted the emergence of intraverbal behavior following training. The results showed that intraverbal training required as many or fewer sessions to reach the mastery criterion than listener training by FFC, and intraverbal training consistently produced emergent listener behavior. In comparison, listener training by FFC did not consistently lead to the emergence of intraverbal behavior.

The Predictive Value of Ultrasound Learning Curves Across Simulated and Clinical Settings.

PubMed

Madsen, Mette E; Nørgaard, Lone N; Tabor, Ann; Konge, Lars; Ringsted, Charlotte; Tolsgaard, Martin G

2017-01-01

The aim of the study was to explore whether learning curves on a virtual-reality (VR) sonographic simulator can be used to predict subsequent learning curves on a physical mannequin and learning curves during clinical training. Twenty midwives completed a simulation-based training program in transvaginal sonography. The training was conducted on a VR simulator as well as on a physical mannequin. A subgroup of 6 participants underwent subsequent clinical training. During each of the 3 steps, the participants' performance was assessed using instruments with established validity evidence, and they advanced to the next level only after attaining predefined levels of performance. The number of repetitions and time needed to achieve predefined performance levels were recorded along with the performance scores in each setting. Finally, the outcomes were correlated across settings. A good correlation was found between time needed to achieve predefined performance levels on the VR simulator and the physical mannequin (Pearson correlation coefficient .78; P < .001). Performance scores on the VR simulator correlated well to the clinical performance scores (Pearson correlation coefficient .81; P = .049). No significant correlations were found between numbers of attempts needed to reach proficiency across the 3 different settings. A post hoc analysis found that the 50% fastest trainees at reaching proficiency during simulation-based training received higher clinical performance scores compared to trainees with scores placing them among the 50% slowest (P = .025). Performances during simulation-based sonography training may predict performance in related tasks and subsequent clinical learning curves. © 2016 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

The cerebellum predicts the temporal consequences of observed motor acts.

PubMed

Avanzino, Laura; Bove, Marco; Pelosin, Elisa; Ogliastro, Carla; Lagravinese, Giovanna; Martino, Davide

2015-01-01

It is increasingly clear that we extract patterns of temporal regularity between events to optimize information processing. The ability to extract temporal patterns and regularity of events is referred as temporal expectation. Temporal expectation activates the same cerebral network usually engaged in action selection, comprising cerebellum. However, it is unclear whether the cerebellum is directly involved in temporal expectation, when timing information is processed to make predictions on the outcome of a motor act. Healthy volunteers received one session of either active (inhibitory, 1 Hz) or sham repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation covering the right lateral cerebellum prior the execution of a temporal expectation task. Subjects were asked to predict the end of a visually perceived human body motion (right hand handwriting) and of an inanimate object motion (a moving circle reaching a target). Videos representing movements were shown in full; the actual tasks consisted of watching the same videos, but interrupted after a variable interval from its onset by a dark interval of variable duration. During the 'dark' interval, subjects were asked to indicate when the movement represented in the video reached its end by clicking on the spacebar of the keyboard. Performance on the timing task was analyzed measuring the absolute value of timing error, the coefficient of variability and the percentage of anticipation responses. The active group exhibited greater absolute timing error compared with the sham group only in the human body motion task. Our findings suggest that the cerebellum is engaged in cognitive and perceptual domains that are strictly connected to motor control.

A spatial model to assess the effects of hydropower operations on Columbia River fall Chinook Salmon spawning habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Tiffan, Kenneth F.; Anglin, Donald R.; Haeseker, Steven L.; Skalicky, Joseph J.; Schaller, Howard

2009-01-01

Priest Rapids Dam on the Columbia River produces large daily and hourly streamflow fluctuations throughout the Hanford Reach during the period when fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha are selecting spawning habitat, constructing redds, and actively engaged in spawning. Concern over the detrimental effects of these fluctuations prompted us to quantify the effects of variable flows on the amount and persistence of fall Chinook salmon spawning habitat in the Hanford Reach. Specifically, our goal was to develop a management tool capable of quantifying the effects of current and alternative hydrographs on predicted spawning habitat in a spatially explicit manner. Toward this goal, we modeled the water velocities and depths that fall Chinook salmon experienced during the 2004 spawning season, plus what they would probably have experienced under several alternative (i.e., synthetic) hydrographs, using both one- and two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. To estimate spawning habitat under existing or alternative hydrographs, we used cell-based modeling and logistic regression to construct and compare numerous spatial habitat models. We found that fall Chinook salmon were more likely to spawn at locations where velocities were persistently greater than 1 m/s and in areas where fluctuating water velocities were reduced. Simulations of alternative dam operations indicate that the quantity of spawning habitat is expected to increase as streamflow fluctuations are reduced during the spawning season. The spatial habitat models that we developed provide management agencies with a quantitative tool for predicting, in a spatially explicit manner, the effects of different flow regimes on fall Chinook salmon spawning habitat in the Hanford Reach. In addition to characterizing temporally varying habitat conditions, our research describes an analytical approach that could be applied in other highly variable aquatic systems.

[Clinical applications of dosing algorithm in the predication of warfarin maintenance dose].

PubMed

Huang, Sheng-wen; Xiang, Dao-kang; An, Bang-quan; Li, Gui-fang; Huang, Ling; Wu, Hai-li

2011-12-27

To evaluate the feasibility of clinical application for genetic based dosing algorithm in the predication of warfarin maintenance dose in Chinese population. The clinical data were collected and blood samples harvested from a total of 126 patients undergoing heart valve replacement. The genotypes of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 were determined by melting curve analysis after PCR. They were divided randomly into the study and control groups. In the study group, the first three doses of warfarin were prescribed according to the predicted warfarin maintenance dose while warfarin was initiated at 2.5 mg/d in the control group. The warfarin doses were adjusted according to the measured international normalized ratio (INR) values. And all subjects were followed for 50 days after an initiation of warfarin therapy. At the end of a 50-day follow-up period, the proportions of the patients on a stable dose were 82.4% (42/51) and 62.5% (30/48) for the study and control groups respectively. The mean durations of reaching a stable dose of warfarin were (27.5 ± 1.8) and (34.7 ± 1.8) days and the median durations were (24.0 ± 1.7) and (33.0 ± 4.5) days in the study and control groups respectively. Significant differences existed in the durations of reaching a stable dose between the two groups (P = 0.012). Compared with the control group, the hazard ratio (HR) for the duration of reaching a stable dose was 1.786 in the study group (95%CI 1.088 - 2.875, P = 0.026). The predicted dosing algorithm incorporating genetic and non-genetic factors may shorten the duration of achieving efficiently a stable dose of warfarin. And the present study validates the feasibility of its clinical application.

3D finite element modeling of sliding wear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buentello Hernandez, Rodolfo G.

Wear is defined as "the removal of material volume through some mechanical process between two surfaces". There are many mechanical situations that can induce wear and each can involve many wear mechanisms. This research focuses on the mechanical wear due to dry sliding between two surfaces. Currently there is a need to identify and compare materials that would endure sliding wear under severe conditions such as high velocities. The high costs associated with the field experimentation of systems subject to high-speed sliding, has prevented the collection of the necessary data required to fully characterize this phenomena. Simulating wear through Finite Elements (FE) would enable its prediction under different scenarios and would reduce experimentation costs. In the aerospace, automotive and weapon industries such a model can aid in material selection, design and/or testing of systems subjected to wear in bearings, gears, brakes, gun barrels, slippers, locomotive wheels, or even rocket test tracks. The 3D wear model presented in this dissertation allows one to reasonably predict high-speed sliding mechanical wear between two materials. The model predictions are reasonable, when compared against those measured on a sled slipper traveling over the Holloman High Speed Tests Track. This slipper traveled a distance of 5,816 meters in 8.14 seconds and reached a maximum velocity of 1,530 m/s.

Modeling potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus) reservoir, in Argentina.

PubMed

Andreo, Verónica; Glass, Gregory; Shields, Timothy; Provensal, Cecilia; Polop, Jaime

2011-09-01

We constructed a model to predict the potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the reservoir of Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus), in Argentina. We developed an extensive database of occurrence records from published studies and our own surveys and compared two methods to model the probability of O. longicaudatus presence; logistic regression and MaxEnt algorithm. The environmental variables used were tree, grass and bare soil cover from MODIS imagery and, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database. The models performances were evaluated and compared both by threshold dependent and independent measures. The best models included tree and grass cover, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest and coldest seasons. The potential distribution maps for O. longicaudatus predicted the highest occurrence probabilities along the Andes range, from 32°S and narrowing southwards. They also predicted high probabilities for the south-central area of Argentina, reaching the Atlantic coast. The Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases coincided with mean occurrence probabilities of 95 and 77% for logistic and MaxEnt models, respectively. HPS transmission zones in Argentine Patagonia matched the areas with the highest probability of presence. Therefore, colilargos presence probability may provide an approximate risk of transmission and act as an early tool to guide control and prevention plans.

A novel acenocoumarol pharmacogenomic dosing algorithm for the Greek population of EU-PACT trial.

PubMed

Ragia, Georgia; Kolovou, Vana; Kolovou, Genovefa; Konstantinides, Stavros; Maltezos, Efstratios; Tavridou, Anna; Tziakas, Dimitrios; Maitland-van der Zee, Anke H; Manolopoulos, Vangelis G

2017-01-01

To generate and validate a pharmacogenomic-guided (PG) dosing algorithm for acenocoumarol in the Greek population. To compare its performance with other PG algorithms developed for the Greek population. A total of 140 Greek patients participants of the EU-PACT trial for acenocoumarol, a randomized clinical trial that prospectively compared the effect of a PG dosing algorithm with a clinical dosing algorithm on the percentage of time within INR therapeutic range, who reached acenocoumarol stable dose were included in the study. CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes, age and weight affected acenocoumarol dose and predicted 53.9% of its variability. EU-PACT PG algorithm overestimated acenocoumarol dose across all different CYP2C9/VKORC1 functional phenotype bins (predicted dose vs stable dose in normal responders 2.31 vs 2.00 mg/day, p = 0.028, in sensitive responders 1.72 vs 1.50 mg/day, p = 0.003, in highly sensitive responders 1.39 vs 1.00 mg/day, p = 0.029). The PG algorithm previously developed for the Greek population overestimated the dose in normal responders (2.51 vs 2.00 mg/day, p < 0.001). Ethnic-specific dosing algorithm is suggested for better prediction of acenocoumarol dosage requirements in patients of Greek origin.

Supersonic Coaxial Jets: Noise Predictions and Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dahl, Milo D.; Papamoschou, Dimitri; Hixon, Ray

1998-01-01

The noise from perfectly expanded coaxial jets was measured in an anechoic chamber for different operating conditions with the same total thrust, mass flow, and exit area. The shape of the measured noise spectrum at different angles to the jet axis was found to agree with spectral shapes for single, axisymmetric jets. Based on these spectra, the sound was characterized as being generated by large turbulent structures or fine-scale turbulence. Modeling the large scale structures as instability waves, a stability analysis was conducted for the coaxial jets to identify the growing and decaying instability waves in each shear layer and predict their noise radiation pattern outside the jet. When compared to measured directivity, the analysis identified the region downstream of the outer potential core, where the two shear layers were merging, as the source of the peak radiated noise where instability waves, with their origin in the inner shear layer, reach their maximum amplitude. Numerical computations were also performed using a linearized Euler equation solver. Those results were compared to both the results from the instability wave analysis and to measured data.

Analysis and Prediction of Ice Shedding for a Full-Scale Heated Tail Rotor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreeger, Richard E.; Work, Andrew; Douglass, Rebekah; Gazella, Matthew; Koster, Zakery; Turk, Jodi

2016-01-01

When helicopters are to fly in icing conditions, it is necessary to consider the possibility of ice shed from the rotor blades. In 2013, a series of tests were conducted on a heated tail rotor at NASA Glenn's Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The tests produced several shed events that were captured on camera. Three of these shed events were captured at a sufficiently high frame rate to obtain multiple images of the shed ice in flight that had a sufficiently long section of shed ice for analysis. Analysis of these shed events is presented and compared to an analytical Shedding Trajectory Model (STM). The STM is developed and assumes that the ice breaks off instantly as it reaches the end of the blade, while frictional and viscous forces are used as parameters to fit the STM. The trajectory of each shed is compared to that predicted by the STM, where the STM provides information of the shed group of ice as a whole. The limitations of the model's underlying assumptions are discussed in comparison to experimental shed events.

A method to estimate canal leakage to the Biscayne Aquifer, Dade County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chin, D.A.

1990-01-01

The leakage characteristics of channels that partially penetrate the Biscayne aquifer and have reduced bed permeability were studied. Leakage characteristics were described in terms of a reach transmissivity-defined as the volume flow rate out of the channel per unit length of the channel per unit drawdown, where drawdown is defined as the difference in altitude between the water surface in the canal and the water table in the adjacent aquifer. A theoretical expression was developed to relate the reach transmissivity to the transmissivity of the formation, mean channel width, distance of drawdown measurement from the channel centerline, ratio of drawdowns on both sides of the channel, and local reach transmissivity associated with reduced bed permeability. This theoretical expression was verified using a fine-scale numerical model, which gave accurate results when drawdowns were measured beyond 10 aquifer depths from the side of the channel. Using the theoretical formulation, it is shown that the reach transmissivity employed in regional ground-water models, which are based on average drawdowns within a cell, depends on the size of the cell as well as the transmissivity of the formation, channel width, and local reach transmissivity due to reduced bed permeability. The theoretical reach transmissivity function was compared with field measurements at L-31N Canal and Snapper Creek Extension Canal in Dade County, Florida. Analyses of the data for both canals showed good agreement between the estimated and measured reach transmissivities. At L- 31N Canal, field measurements indicated that the local reach transmissivity was relatively uniform over a 2-mile reach of the channel (averaging 630 cubic feet per second per mile per foot), and the formation transmissivity was 1.8 x106 feet squared per day. At Snapper Creek Extension Canal, an approximate analysis was necessary due to the inability of the acoustic velocity meter to measure very low water velocities in the channel. Assuming an aquifer transmissivity of 1 x 106 feet squared per day, drawdown measurements indicated that the local reach transmissivity was about 400 cubic feet per second per mile per foot. The theoretical relation, combined with the local reach transmissivity and formation transmissivity, was sufficient to predict the leakage out of L-31N Canal and Snapper Creek Extension Canal for any drawdown scenario.

Cue Salience and Infant Perseverative Reaching: Tests of the Dynamic Field Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clearfield, Melissa W.; Dineva, Evelina; Smith, Linda B.; Diedrich, Frederick J.; Thelen, Esther

2009-01-01

Skilled behavior requires a balance between previously successful behaviors and new behaviors appropriate to the present context. We describe a dynamic field model for understanding this balance in infant perseverative reaching. The model predictions are tested with regard to the interaction of two aspects of the typical perseverative reaching…

Building spatially-explicit model predictions for ecological condition of streams in the Pacific Northwest: An assessment of landscape variables, models, endpoints and prediction scale

EPA Science Inventory

While large-scale, randomized surveys estimate the percentage of a region’s streams in poor ecological condition, identifying particular stream reaches or watersheds in poor condition is an equally important goal for monitoring and management. We built predictive models of strea...

Diesel engine emissions and combustion predictions using advanced mixing models applicable to fuel sprays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abani, Neerav; Reitz, Rolf D.

2010-09-01

An advanced mixing model was applied to study engine emissions and combustion with different injection strategies ranging from multiple injections, early injection and grouped-hole nozzle injection in light and heavy duty diesel engines. The model was implemented in the KIVA-CHEMKIN engine combustion code and simulations were conducted at different mesh resolutions. The model was compared with the standard KIVA spray model that uses the Lagrangian-Drop and Eulerian-Fluid (LDEF) approach, and a Gas Jet spray model that improves predictions of liquid sprays. A Vapor Particle Method (VPM) is introduced that accounts for sub-grid scale mixing of fuel vapor and more accurately and predicts the mixing of fuel-vapor over a range of mesh resolutions. The fuel vapor is transported as particles until a certain distance from nozzle is reached where the local jet half-width is adequately resolved by the local mesh scale. Within this distance the vapor particle is transported while releasing fuel vapor locally, as determined by a weighting factor. The VPM model more accurately predicts fuel-vapor penetrations for early cycle injections and flame lift-off lengths for late cycle injections. Engine combustion computations show that as compared to the standard KIVA and Gas Jet spray models, the VPM spray model improves predictions of in-cylinder pressure, heat released rate and engine emissions of NOx, CO and soot with coarse mesh resolutions. The VPM spray model is thus a good tool for efficiently investigating diesel engine combustion with practical mesh resolutions, thereby saving computer time.

Research of Water Level Prediction for a Continuous Flood due to Typhoons Based on a Machine Learning Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakatsugawa, M.; Kobayashi, Y.; Okazaki, R.; Taniguchi, Y.

2017-12-01

This research aims to improve accuracy of water level prediction calculations for more effective river management. In August 2016, Hokkaido was visited by four typhoons, whose heavy rainfall caused severe flooding. In the Tokoro river basin of Eastern Hokkaido, the water level (WL) at the Kamikawazoe gauging station, which is at the lower reaches exceeded the design high-water level and the water rose to the highest level on record. To predict such flood conditions and mitigate disaster damage, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of prediction as well as to prolong the lead time (LT) required for disaster mitigation measures such as flood-fighting activities and evacuation actions by residents. There is the need to predict the river water level around the peak stage earlier and more accurately. Previous research dealing with WL prediction had proposed a method in which the WL at the lower reaches is estimated by the correlation with the WL at the upper reaches (hereinafter: "the water level correlation method"). Additionally, a runoff model-based method has been generally used in which the discharge is estimated by giving rainfall prediction data to a runoff model such as a storage function model and then the WL is estimated from that discharge by using a WL discharge rating curve (H-Q curve). In this research, an attempt was made to predict WL by applying the Random Forest (RF) method, which is a machine learning method that can estimate the contribution of explanatory variables. Furthermore, from the practical point of view, we investigated the prediction of WL based on a multiple correlation (MC) method involving factors using explanatory variables with high contribution in the RF method, and we examined the proper selection of explanatory variables and the extension of LT. The following results were found: 1) Based on the RF method tuned up by learning from previous floods, the WL for the abnormal flood case of August 2016 was properly predicted with a lead time of 6 h. 2) Based on the contribution of explanatory variables, factors were selected for the MC method. In this way, plausible prediction results were obtained.

High field Q slope and the effect of low-temperature baking at 3 GHz

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ciovati, G.; Eremeev, G.; Hannon, F.

Here, a strong degradation of the unloaded quality factor with field, called high field Q-slope, is commonly observed above Bmore » $$_{p}$$ $$\\cong$$ 100 mT in elliptical superconducting niobium cavities at 1.3 GHz and 1.5 GHz. In the present experiments several 3 GHz niobium cavities were measured up to and above B$$_{p}$$ $$\\cong$$100 mT. The measurements show that a high field Q-slope phenomenon limits the field reach at this frequency, that the high field Q-slope onset field depends weakly on the frequency, and that the high field Q-slope can be removed by the typical empirical solution of electropolishing followed by heating to 120 $$^{\\circ}$$C for 48 hrs. In addition, one of the cavities reached a quench field of 174~mT and its field dependence of the quality factor was compared against global heating predicted by a thermal feedback model.« less

High field Q slope and the effect of low-temperature baking at 3 GHz

DOE PAGES

Ciovati, G.; Eremeev, G.; Hannon, F.

2018-01-29

Here, a strong degradation of the unloaded quality factor with field, called high field Q-slope, is commonly observed above Bmore » $$_{p}$$ $$\\cong$$ 100 mT in elliptical superconducting niobium cavities at 1.3 GHz and 1.5 GHz. In the present experiments several 3 GHz niobium cavities were measured up to and above B$$_{p}$$ $$\\cong$$100 mT. The measurements show that a high field Q-slope phenomenon limits the field reach at this frequency, that the high field Q-slope onset field depends weakly on the frequency, and that the high field Q-slope can be removed by the typical empirical solution of electropolishing followed by heating to 120 $$^{\\circ}$$C for 48 hrs. In addition, one of the cavities reached a quench field of 174~mT and its field dependence of the quality factor was compared against global heating predicted by a thermal feedback model.« less

Evaluation of modeled bacteria loads along an impaired stream reach receiving discharge from a municipal separate storm sewer system in Independence, Mo.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flickinger, Allison; Christensen, Eric D.

2017-01-01

The Little Blue River in Jackson County, Missouri, was listed as impaired in 2012 due to Escherichia coli (E. coli) from urban runoff and storm sewers. A study was initiated to characterize E. coli concentrations and loads to aid in the development of a total maximum daily load implementation plan. Longitudinal sampling along the stream revealed spatial and temporal variability in E. coli loads. Regression models were developed to better represent E. coli variability in the impaired reach using continuous hydrologic and water-quality parameters as predictive parameters. Daily loads calculated from main-stem samples were significantly higher downstream compared to upstream even though there was no significant difference between the upstream and downstream measured concentrations and no significant conclusions could be drawn from model-estimated loads due to model-associated uncertainty. Increasing sample frequency could decrease the bias and increase the accuracy of the modeled results.

Age and growth dynamics of Tyrannosaurus rex.

PubMed

Horner, John R; Padian, Kevin

2004-09-22

Tyrannosaurus rex is the most commonly found North American latest Cretaceous theropod, but until the 1980s only five specimens had been discovered, and no more than six have received a full description. Consequently there has been little information on how old Tyrannosaurus specimens were at maturity or death. Histological analysis of seven individuals provided, for the first time, an opportunity to assess the age represented by the bone cortex, to estimate the average individual age of these skeletons, to determine whether they represented fully grown individuals, and to predict their individual longevity. Though a range of ages (15-25 years) was found for the specimens studied, the seven individuals demonstrate that T. rex reached effectively full size in less than 20 years. The growth rate of T. rex was comparable to that of the African elephant, which has a similar mass and time to maturity. Some of the known specimens of T. rex did not quite reach full size; others do not seem to have survived long after achieving it.

Age and growth dynamics of Tyrannosaurus rex.

PubMed Central

Horner, John R.; Padian, Kevin

2004-01-01

Tyrannosaurus rex is the most commonly found North American latest Cretaceous theropod, but until the 1980s only five specimens had been discovered, and no more than six have received a full description. Consequently there has been little information on how old Tyrannosaurus specimens were at maturity or death. Histological analysis of seven individuals provided, for the first time, an opportunity to assess the age represented by the bone cortex, to estimate the average individual age of these skeletons, to determine whether they represented fully grown individuals, and to predict their individual longevity. Though a range of ages (15-25 years) was found for the specimens studied, the seven individuals demonstrate that T. rex reached effectively full size in less than 20 years. The growth rate of T. rex was comparable to that of the African elephant, which has a similar mass and time to maturity. Some of the known specimens of T. rex did not quite reach full size; others do not seem to have survived long after achieving it. PMID:15347508

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

2017-08-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of eco-hydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965-1969) from -0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010-2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

Effects of smoking on heart rate at rest and during exercise, and on heart rate recovery, in young adults.

PubMed

Papathanasiou, George; Georgakopoulos, Dimitris; Papageorgiou, Effie; Zerva, Efthimia; Michalis, Lampros; Kalfakakou, Vasiliki; Evangelou, Angelos

2013-01-01

There is an established link between smoking, abnormal heart rate (HR) values, and impaired cardiovascular health in middle-aged or older populations. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of smoking on resting HR and on HR responses during and after exercise in young adults. A sample of 298 young adults (159 men), aged 20-29 years old, were selected from a large population of health-science students based on health status, body mass index, physical activity, and smoking habit. All subjects underwent a maximal Bruce treadmill test and their HR was recorded during, at peak, and after termination of exercise. Smokers had significantly higher resting HR values than non-smokers. Both female and male smokers showed a significantly slower HR increase during exercise. Female smokers failed to reach their age-predicted maximum HR by 6.0 bpm and males by 3.6 bpm. The actual maximum HR achieved (HRmax) was significantly lower for both female smokers (191.0 bpm vs.198.0 bpm) and male smokers (193.2 bpm vs.199.3 bpm), compared to non-smokers. Heart rate reserve was also significantly lower in female (114.6 bpm vs. 128.1 bpm) and male smokers (120.4 bpm vs. 133.0 bpm). During recovery, the HR decline was significantly attenuated, but only in female smokers. Females had a higher resting HR and showed a higher HR response during sub-maximal exercise compared to males. Smoking was found to affect young smokers' HR, increasing HR at rest, slowing HR increase during exercise and impairing their ability to reach the age-predicted HRmax. In addition, smoking was associated with an attenuated HR decline during recovery, but only in females.

Endotics system vs colonoscopy for the detection of polyps

PubMed Central

Tumino, Emanuele; Sacco, Rodolfo; Bertini, Marco; Bertoni, Michele; Parisi, Giuseppe; Capria, Alfonso

2010-01-01

AIM: To compare the endotics system (ES), a set of new medical equipment for diagnostic colonoscopy, with video-colonoscopy in the detection of polyps. METHODS: Patients with clinical or familial risk of colonic polyps/carcinomas were eligible for this study. After a standard colonic cleaning, detection of polyps by the ES and by video-colonoscopy was performed in each patient on the same day. In each single patient, the assessment of the presence of polyps was performed by two independent endoscopists, who were randomly assigned to evaluate, in a blind fashion, the presence of polyps either by ES or by standard colonoscopy. The frequency of successful procedures (i.e. reaching to the cecum), the time for endoscopy, and the need for sedation were recorded. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of the ES were also calculated. RESULTS: A total of 71 patients (40 men, mean age 51.9 ± 12.0 years) were enrolled. The cecum was reached in 81.6% of ES examinations and in 94.3% of colonoscopies (P = 0.03). The average time of endoscopy was 45.1 ± 18.5 and 23.7 ± 7.2 min for the ES and traditional colonoscopy, respectively (P < 0.0001). No patient required sedation during ES examination, compared with 19.7% of patients undergoing colonoscopy (P < 0.0001). The sensitivity and specificity of ES for detecting polyps were 93.3% (95% CI: 68-98) and 100% (95% CI: 76.8-100), respectively. PPV was 100% (95% CI: 76.8-100) and NPV was 97.7% (95% CI: 88-99.9). CONCLUSION: The ES allows the visualization of the entire colonic mucosa in most patients, with good sensitivity/specificity for the detection of lesions and without requiring sedation. PMID:21086563

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of themore » Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.« less

Characteristics of mother-child conflict and child sex predicting resolution.

PubMed

Nelson, Jackie A; Boyer, Brittany P; Sang, Samantha A; Wilson, Elizabeth K

2014-04-01

Data from 190 mothers and their 5- to 7-year-old children were used to evaluate how characteristics of mother-child conflict discussions contribute to the likelihood of reaching a compromise, a win-loss resolution, or a standoff. Dyads discussed 2 topics they reported having disagreements about that were emotionally arousing. Coders rated global measurements of mothers' emotional responsiveness, intrusiveness, and negativity; children's negativity; and the frequency of mothers' and children's constructive and oppositional comments. Child sex was examined as a moderator of the relation between discussion characteristics and resolution reached. Results indicated that more constructive comments by mothers and children increased the likelihood of reaching a resolution versus a standoff, but only children's constructive comments differentiated between a compromise and a win-loss resolution favoring mothers. Dyads with more emotionally responsive mothers who made fewer oppositional comments were also more likely to reach a compromise versus a win-loss resolution. A significant interaction with child sex revealed that, for boys, the use of more child oppositional comments was associated with a higher likelihood of reaching a standoff versus a compromise. Girls' oppositional comments did not predict resolution type. These results are discussed in terms of the children's developmental level and parents' socialization goals. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Mortality prediction system for heart failure with orthogonal relief and dynamic radius means.

PubMed

Wang, Zhe; Yao, Lijuan; Li, Dongdong; Ruan, Tong; Liu, Min; Gao, Ju

2018-07-01

This paper constructs a mortality prediction system based on a real-world dataset. This mortality prediction system aims to predict mortality in heart failure (HF) patients. Effective mortality prediction can improve resources allocation and clinical outcomes, avoiding inappropriate overtreatment of low-mortality patients and discharging of high-mortality patients. This system covers three mortality prediction targets: prediction of in-hospital mortality, prediction of 30-day mortality and prediction of 1-year mortality. HF data are collected from the Shanghai Shuguang hospital. 10,203 in-patients records are extracted from encounters occurring between March 2009 and April 2016. The records involve 4682 patients, including 539 death cases. A feature selection method called Orthogonal Relief (OR) algorithm is first used to reduce the dimensionality. Then, a classification algorithm named Dynamic Radius Means (DRM) is proposed to predict the mortality in HF patients. The comparative experimental results demonstrate that mortality prediction system achieves high performance in all targets by DRM. It is noteworthy that the performance of in-hospital mortality prediction achieves 87.3% in AUC (35.07% improvement). Moreover, the AUC of 30-day and 1-year mortality prediction reach to 88.45% and 84.84%, respectively. Especially, the system could keep itself effective and not deteriorate when the dimension of samples is sharply reduced. The proposed system with its own method DRM can predict mortality in HF patients and achieve high performance in all three mortality targets. Furthermore, effective feature selection strategy can boost the system. This system shows its importance in real-world applications, assisting clinicians in HF treatment by providing crucial decision information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neural correlates of learning and trajectory planning in the posterior parietal cortex

PubMed Central

Torres, Elizabeth B.; Quian Quiroga, Rodrigo; Cui, He; Buneo, Christopher A.

2013-01-01

The posterior parietal cortex (PPC) is thought to play an important role in the planning of visually-guided reaching movements. However, the relative roles of the various subdivisions of the PPC in this function are still poorly understood. For example, studies of dorsal area 5 point to a representation of reaches in both extrinsic (endpoint) and intrinsic (joint or muscle) coordinates, as evidenced by partial changes in preferred directions and positional discharge with changes in arm posture. In contrast, recent findings suggest that the adjacent medial intraparietal area (MIP) is involved in more abstract representations, e.g., encoding reach target in visual coordinates. Such a representation is suitable for planning reach trajectories involving shortest distance paths to targets straight ahead. However, it is currently unclear how MIP contributes to the planning of other types of trajectories, including those with various degrees of curvature. Such curved trajectories recruit different joint excursions and might help us address whether their representation in the PPC is purely in extrinsic coordinates or in intrinsic ones as well. Here we investigated the role of the PPC in these processes during an obstacle avoidance task for which the animals had not been explicitly trained. We found that PPC planning activity was predictive of both the spatial and temporal aspects of upcoming trajectories. The same PPC neurons predicted the upcoming trajectory in both endpoint and joint coordinates. The predictive power of these neurons remained stable and accurate despite concomitant motor learning across task conditions. These findings suggest the role of the PPC can be extended from specifying abstract movement goals to expressing these plans as corresponding trajectories in both endpoint and joint coordinates. Thus, the PPC appears to contribute to reach planning and approach-avoidance arm motions at multiple levels of representation. PMID:23730275

Investigation of pressure drop in capillary tube for mixed refrigerant Joule-Thomson cryocooler

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ardhapurkar, P. M.; Sridharan, Arunkumar; Atrey, M. D.

2014-01-29

A capillary tube is commonly used in small capacity refrigeration and air-conditioning systems. It is also a preferred expansion device in mixed refrigerant Joule-Thomson (MR J-T) cryocoolers, since it is inexpensive and simple in configuration. However, the flow inside a capillary tube is complex, since flashing process that occurs in case of refrigeration and air-conditioning systems is metastable. A mixture of refrigerants such as nitrogen, methane, ethane, propane and iso-butane expands below its inversion temperature in the capillary tube of MR J-T cryocooler and reaches cryogenic temperature. The mass flow rate of refrigerant mixture circulating through capillary tube depends onmore » the pressure difference across it. There are many empirical correlations which predict pressure drop across the capillary tube. However, they have not been tested for refrigerant mixtures and for operating conditions of the cryocooler. The present paper assesses the existing empirical correlations for predicting overall pressure drop across the capillary tube for the MR J-T cryocooler. The empirical correlations refer to homogeneous as well as separated flow models. Experiments are carried out to measure the overall pressure drop across the capillary tube for the cooler. Three different compositions of refrigerant mixture are used to study the pressure drop variations. The predicted overall pressure drop across the capillary tube is compared with the experimentally obtained value. The predictions obtained using homogeneous model show better match with the experimental results compared to separated flow models.« less

CA19-9 serum levels predict micrometastases in patients with gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Potrc, Stojan; Mis, Katarina; Plankl, Mojca; Mars, Tomaz

2016-01-01

Abstract Background We explored the prognostic value of the up-regulated carbohydrate antigen (CA19-9) in node-negative patients with gastric cancer as a surrogate marker for micrometastases. Patients and methods Micrometastases were determined using reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) for a subgroup of 30 node-negative patients. This group was used to determine the cut-off for preoperative CA19-9 serum levels as a surrogate marker for micrometastases. Then 187 node-negative T1 to T4 patients were selected to validate the predictive value of this CA19-9 threshold. Results Patients with micrometastases had significantly higher preoperative CA19-9 serum levels compared to patients without micrometastases (p = 0.046). CA19-9 serum levels were significantly correlated with tumour site, tumour diameter, and perineural invasion. Although not reaching significance, subgroup analysis showed better five-year survival rates for patients with CA19-9 serum levels below the threshold, compared to patients with CA19-9 serum levels above the cut-off. The cumulative survival for T2 to T4 node-negative patients was significantly better with CA19-9 serum levels below the cut-off (p = 0.04). Conclusions Preoperative CA19-9 serum levels can be used to predict higher risk for haematogenous spread and micrometastases in node-negative patients. However, CA19-9 serum levels lack the necessary sensitivity and specificity to reliably predict micrometastases. PMID:27247553

Dynamics of prey moving through a predator field: a model of migrating juvenile salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, J.H.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2000-01-01

The migration of a patch of prey through a field of relatively stationary predators is a situation that occurs frequently in nature. Making quantitative predictions concerning such phenomena may be difficult, however, because factors such as the number of the prey in the patch, the spatial length and velocity of the patch, and the feeding rate and satiation of the predators all interact in a complex way. However, such problems are of great practical importance in many management situations; e.g., calculating the mortality of juvenile salmon (smolts) swimming down a river or reservoir containing many predators. Salmon smolts often move downstream in patches short compared with the length of the reservoir. To take into account the spatial dependence of the interaction, we used a spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling approach. We found that the mortality of prey depends strongly on the number of prey in the patch, the downstream velocity of prey in the patch, and the dispersion or spread of the patch in size through time. Some counterintuitive phenomena are predicted, such as predators downstrean capturing more prey per predator than those upstream, even though the number of prey may be greatly depleted by the time the prey patch reaches the downstream predators. Individual-based models may be necessary for complex spatial situations, such as salmonid migration, where processes such as schooling occur at fine scales and affect system predictions. We compare some results to predictions from other salmonid models. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.

Investigation and suppression of high dynamic response encountered on an elastic supercritical wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seidel, David A.; Adams, William M., Jr.; Eckstrom, Clinton V.; Sandford, Maynard C.

1989-01-01

The DAST Aeroelastic Research Wing had been previously in the NASA Langley TDT and an unusual instability boundary was predicted based upon supercritical response data. Contrary to the predictions, no instability was found during the present test. Instead a region of high dynamic wing response was observed which reached a maximum value between Mach numbers 0.92 and 0.93. The amplitude of the dynamic response increased directly with dynamic pressure. The reponse appears to be related to chordwise shock movement in conjunction with flow separation and reattachment on the upper and lower wing surfaces. The onset of flow separation coincided with the occurrence of strong shocks on a surface. A controller was designed to suppress the wing response. The control law attenuated the response as compared with the uncontrolled case and added a small but significant amount of damping for the lower density condition.

Perception of mind and dehumanization: Human, animal, or machine?

PubMed

Morera, María D; Quiles, María N; Correa, Ana D; Delgado, Naira; Leyens, Jacques-Philippe

2016-08-02

Dehumanization is reached through several approaches, including the attribute-based model of mind perception and the metaphor-based model of dehumanization. We performed two studies to find different (de)humanized images for three targets: Professional people, Evil people, and Lowest of the low. In Study 1, we examined dimensions of mind, expecting the last two categories to be dehumanized through denial of agency (Lowest of the low) or experience (Evil people), compared with humanized targets (Professional people). Study 2 aimed to distinguish these targets using metaphors. We predicted that Evil and Lowest of the low targets would suffer mechanistic and animalistic dehumanization, respectively; our predictions were confirmed, but the metaphor-based model nuanced these results: animalistic and mechanistic dehumanization were shown as overlapping rather than independent. Evil persons were perceived as "killing machines" and "predators." Finally, Lowest of the low were not animalized but considered human beings. We discuss possible interpretations. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

Preventive evolutionary medicine of cancers.

PubMed

Hochberg, Michael E; Thomas, Frédéric; Assenat, Eric; Hibner, Urszula

2013-01-01

Evolutionary theory predicts that once an individual reaches an age of sufficiently low Darwinian fitness, (s)he will have reduced chances of keeping cancerous lesions in check. While we clearly need to better understand the emergence of precursor states and early malignancies as well as their mitigation by the microenvironment and tissue architecture, we argue that lifestyle changes and preventive therapies based in an evolutionary framework, applied to identified high-risk populations before incipient neoplasms become clinically detectable and chemoresistant lineages emerge, are currently the most reliable way to control or eliminate early tumours. Specifically, the relatively low levels of (epi)genetic heterogeneity characteristic of many if not most incipient lesions will mean a relatively limited set of possible adaptive traits and associated costs compared to more advanced cancers, and thus a more complete and predictable understanding of treatment options and outcomes. We propose a conceptual model for preventive treatments and discuss the many associated challenges.

From eye movements to actions: how batsmen hit the ball.

PubMed

Land, M F; McLeod, P

2000-12-01

In cricket, a batsman watches a fast bowler's ball come toward him at a high and unpredictable speed, bouncing off ground of uncertain hardness. Although he views the trajectory for little more than half a second, he can accurately judge where and when the ball will reach him. Batsmen's eye movements monitor the moment when the ball is released, make a predictive saccade to the place where they expect it to hit the ground, wait for it to bounce, and follow its trajectory for 100-200 ms after the bounce. We show how information provided by these fixations may allow precise prediction of the ball's timing and placement. Comparing players with different skill levels, we found that a short latency for the first saccade distinguished good from poor batsmen, and that a cricket player's eye movement strategy contributes to his skill in the game.

Mechanical work makes important contributions to surface chemistry at steps.

PubMed

Francis, M F; Curtin, W A

2015-02-13

The effect of mechanical strain on the binding energy of adsorbates to late transition metals is believed to be entirely controlled by electronic factors, with tensile stress inducing stronger binding. Here we show, via computation, that mechanical strain of late transition metals can modify binding at stepped surfaces opposite to well-established trends on flat surfaces. The mechanism driving the trend is mechanical, arising from the relaxation of stored mechanical energy. The mechanical energy change can be larger than, and of opposite sign than, the energy changes due to electronic effects and leads to a violation of trends predicted by the widely accepted electronic 'd-band' model. This trend has a direct impact on catalytic activity, which is demonstrated here for methanation, where biaxial tension is predicted to shift the activity of nickel significantly, reaching the peak of the volcano plot and comparable to cobalt and ruthenium.

Machine learning predictions of molecular properties: Accurate many-body potentials and nonlocality in chemical space

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; ...

2015-06-04

Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstratemore » prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. The same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies.« less

Prediction of Central Burst Defects in Copper Wire Drawing Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vega, G.; NEXANS France, NMC Nexans Metallurgy Centre, Boulevard du Marais, BP39, F-62301 Lens; Haddi, A.

2011-01-17

In this study, the prediction of chevron cracks (central bursts) in copper wire drawing process is investigated using experimental and numerical approaches. The conditions of the chevron cracks creation along the wire axis depend on (i) the die angle, the friction coefficient between the die and the wire, (ii) the reduction in crosssectional area of the wire, (iii) the material properties and (iv) the drawing velocity or strain rate. Under various drawing conditions, a numerical simulation for the prediction of central burst defects is presented using an axisymmetric finite element model. This model is based on the application of themore » Cockcroft and Latham fracture criterion. This criterion was used as the damage value to estimate if and where defects will occur during the copper wire drawing. The critical damage value of the material is obtained from a uniaxial tensile test. The results show that the die angle and the reduction ratio have a significant effect on the stress distribution and the maximum damage value. The central bursts are expected to occur when the die angle and reduction ratio reach a critical value. Numerical predictions are compared with experimental observations.« less

Machine Learning Predictions of Molecular Properties: Accurate Many-Body Potentials and Nonlocality in Chemical Space

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. In addition, the same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies. PMID:26113956

Multi-time-scale heat transfer modeling of turbid tissues exposed to short-pulsed irradiations.

PubMed

Kim, Kyunghan; Guo, Zhixiong

2007-05-01

A combined hyperbolic radiation and conduction heat transfer model is developed to simulate multi-time-scale heat transfer in turbid tissues exposed to short-pulsed irradiations. An initial temperature response of a tissue to an ultrashort pulse irradiation is analyzed by the volume-average method in combination with the transient discrete ordinates method for modeling the ultrafast radiation heat transfer. This response is found to reach pseudo steady state within 1 ns for the considered tissues. The single pulse result is then utilized to obtain the temperature response to pulse train irradiation at the microsecond/millisecond time scales. After that, the temperature field is predicted by the hyperbolic heat conduction model which is solved by the MacCormack's scheme with error terms correction. Finally, the hyperbolic conduction is compared with the traditional parabolic heat diffusion model. It is found that the maximum local temperatures are larger in the hyperbolic prediction than the parabolic prediction. In the modeled dermis tissue, a 7% non-dimensional temperature increase is found. After about 10 thermal relaxation times, thermal waves fade away and the predictions between the hyperbolic and parabolic models are consistent.

Comparison of Three Risk Scores to Predict Outcomes of Severe Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding

PubMed Central

Camus, Marine; Jensen, Dennis M.; Ohning, Gordon V.; Kovacs, Thomas O.; Jutabha, Rome; Ghassemi, Kevin A.; Machicado, Gustavo A.; Dulai, Gareth S.; Jensen, Mary Ellen; Gornbein, Jeffrey A.

2014-01-01

Background & aims Improved medical decisions by using a score at the initial patient triage level may lead to improvements in patient management, outcomes, and resource utilization. There is no validated score for management of lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) unlike for upper GIB. The aim of our study was to compare the accuracies of 3 different prognostic scores (CURE Hemostasis prognosis score, Charlston index and ASA score) for the prediction of 30 day rebleeding, surgery and death in severe LGIB. Methods Data on consecutive patients hospitalized with severe GI bleeding from January 2006 to October 2011 in our two-tertiary academic referral centers were prospectively collected. Sensitivities, specificities, accuracies and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) were computed for three scores for predictions of rebleeding, surgery and mortality at 30 days. Results 235 consecutive patients with LGIB were included between 2006 and 2011. 23% of patients rebled, 6% had surgery, and 7.7% of patients died. The accuracies of each score never reached 70% for predicting rebleeding or surgery in either. The ASA score had a highest accuracy for predicting mortality within 30 days (83.5%) whereas the CURE Hemostasis prognosis score and the Charlson index both had accuracies less than 75% for the prediction of death within 30 days. Conclusions ASA score could be useful to predict death within 30 days. However a new score is still warranted to predict all 30 days outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and death) in LGIB. PMID:25599218

Comparison of propofol pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models for awake craniotomy: A prospective observational study.

PubMed

Soehle, Martin; Wolf, Christina F; Priston, Melanie J; Neuloh, Georg; Bien, Christian G; Hoeft, Andreas; Ellerkmann, Richard K

2015-08-01

Anaesthesia for awake craniotomy aims for an unconscious patient at the beginning and end of surgery but a rapidly awakening and responsive patient during the awake period. Therefore, an accurate pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model for propofol is required to tailor depth of anaesthesia. To compare the predictive performances of the Marsh and the Schnider PK/PD models during awake craniotomy. A prospective observational study. Single university hospital from February 2009 to May 2010. Twelve patients undergoing elective awake craniotomy for resection of brain tumour or epileptogenic areas. Arterial blood samples were drawn at intervals and the propofol plasma concentration was determined. The prediction error, bias [median prediction error (MDPE)] and inaccuracy [median absolute prediction error (MDAPE)] of the Marsh and the Schnider models were calculated. The secondary endpoint was the prediction probability PK, by which changes in the propofol effect-site concentration (as derived from simultaneous PK/PD modelling) predicted changes in anaesthetic depth (measured by the bispectral index). The Marsh model was associated with a significantly (P = 0.05) higher inaccuracy (MDAPE 28.9 ± 12.0%) than the Schnider model (MDAPE 21.5 ± 7.7%) and tended to reach a higher bias (MDPE Marsh -11.7 ± 14.3%, MDPE Schnider -5.4 ± 20.7%, P = 0.09). MDAPE was outside of accepted limits in six (Marsh model) and two (Schnider model) of 12 patients. The prediction probability was comparable between the Marsh (PK 0.798 ± 0.056) and the Schnider model (PK 0.787 ± 0.055), but after adjusting the models to each individual patient, the Schnider model achieved significantly higher prediction probabilities (PK 0.807 ± 0.056, P = 0.05). When using the 'asleep-awake-asleep' anaesthetic technique during awake craniotomy, we advocate using the PK/PD model proposed by Schnider. Due to considerable interindividual variation, additional monitoring of anaesthetic depth is recommended. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT 01128465.

Detectability of compact binary merger macronovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosswog, S.; Feindt, U.; Korobkin, O.; Wu, M.-R.; Sollerman, J.; Goobar, A.; Martinez-Pinedo, G.

2017-05-01

We study the optical and near-infrared luminosities and detectability of radioactively powered electromagnetic transients (‘macronovae’) occuring in the aftermath of binary neutron star and neutron star black hole mergers. We explore the transients that result from the dynamic ejecta and those from different types of wind outflows. Based on full nuclear network simulations we calculate the resulting light curves in different wavelength bands. We scrutinize the robustness of the results by comparing (a) two different nuclear reaction networks and (b) two macronova models. We explore in particular how sensitive the results are to the production of α-decaying trans-lead nuclei. We compare two frequently used mass models: the finite-range Droplet model (FRDM) and the nuclear mass model of Duflo and Zuker (DZ31). We find that the abundance of α-decaying trans-lead nuclei has a significant impact on the observability of the resulting macronovae. For example, the DZ31 model yields considerably larger abundances resulting in larger heating rates and thermalization efficiencies and therefore predicts substantially brighter macronova transients. We find that the dynamic ejecta from NSNS models can reach peak K-band magnitudes in excess of  -15 while those from NSBH cases can reach beyond  -16. Similar values can be reached by some of our wind models. Several of our models (both wind and dynamic ejecta) yield properties that are similar to the transient that was observed in the aftermath of the short GRB 130603B. We further explore the expected macronova detection frequencies for current and future instruments such as VISTA, ZTF and LSST.

Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for El-Awali River Catchment-Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Hijazi, Samar

2016-04-01

River flooding prediction and flood forecasting has become an essential stage in the major flood mitigation plans worldwide. Delineation of floodplains resulting from a river flooding event requires coupling between a Hydrological rainfall-runoff model to calculate the resulting outflows of the catchment and a hydraulic model to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along the river main course. In this study several methods were applied to predict the flood discharge of El-Awali River using the available historical data and gauging records and by conducting several site visits. The HEC-HMS Rainfall-Runoff model was built and applied to calculate the flood hydrographs along several outlets on El-Awali River and calibrated using the storm that took place on January 2013 and caused flooding of the major Lebanese rivers and by conducting additional site visits to calculate proper river sections and record witnesses of the locals. The Hydraulic HEC-RAS model was then applied to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along El-Awali River main reach. Floodplain delineation and Hazard mapping for 10,50 and 100 years return periods was performed using the Watershed Modeling System WMS. The results first show an underestimation of the flood discharge recorded by the operating gauge stations on El-Awali River, whereas, the discharge of the 100 years flood may reach up to 506 m3/s compared by lower values calculated using the traditional discharge estimation methods. Second any flooding of El-Awali River may be catastrophic especially to the coastal part of the catchment and can cause tragic losses in agricultural lands and properties. Last a major floodplain was noticed in Marj Bisri village this floodplain can reach more than 200 meters in width. Overall, performance was good and the Rainfall-Runoff model can provide valuable information about flows especially on ungauged points and can perform a great aid for the floodplain delineation and flood prediction methods in poorly gauged basins, but further model updates and calibration is always required to compensate the weaknesses in such model and attain better results.

Deep learning approach for classifying, detecting and predicting photometric redshifts of quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey stripe 82

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquet-Itam, J.; Pasquet, J.

2018-04-01

We have applied a convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify and detect quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 and also to predict the photometric redshifts of quasars. The network takes the variability of objects into account by converting light curves into images. The width of the images, noted w, corresponds to the five magnitudes ugriz and the height of the images, noted h, represents the date of the observation. The CNN provides good results since its precision is 0.988 for a recall of 0.90, compared to a precision of 0.985 for the same recall with a random forest classifier. Moreover 175 new quasar candidates are found with the CNN considering a fixed recall of 0.97. The combination of probabilities given by the CNN and the random forest makes good performance even better with a precision of 0.99 for a recall of 0.90. For the redshift predictions, the CNN presents excellent results which are higher than those obtained with a feature extraction step and different classifiers (a K-nearest-neighbors, a support vector machine, a random forest and a Gaussian process classifier). Indeed, the accuracy of the CNN within |Δz| < 0.1 can reach 78.09%, within |Δz| < 0.2 reaches 86.15%, within |Δz| < 0.3 reaches 91.2% and the value of root mean square (rms) is 0.359. The performance of the KNN decreases for the three |Δz| regions, since within the accuracy of |Δz| < 0.1, |Δz| < 0.2, and |Δz| < 0.3 is 73.72%, 82.46%, and 90.09% respectively, and the value of rms amounts to 0.395. So the CNN successfully reduces the dispersion and the catastrophic redshifts of quasars. This new method is very promising for the future of big databases such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope. A table of the candidates is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/611/A97

Research on the Direct Carbon Emission Forecast of CHINA'S Provincial Residents Based on Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, S.; Yan, W.

2018-04-01

Global climate change, which mainly effected by human carbon emissions, would affect the regional economic, natural ecological environment, social development and food security in the near future. It's particularly important to make accurate predictions of carbon emissions based on current carbon emissions. This paper accounted out the direct consumption of carbon emissions data from 1995 to 2014 about 30 provinces (the data of Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is missing) and the whole of China. And it selected the optimal models from BP, RBF and Elman neural network for direct carbon emission prediction, what aim was to select the optimal prediction method and explore the possibility of reaching the peak of residents direct carbon emissions of China in 2030. Research shows that: 1) Residents' direct carbon emissions per capita of all provinces showed an upward trend in 20 years. 2) The accuracy of the prediction results by Elman neural network model is higher than others and more suitable for carbon emission data projections. 3) With the situation of residents' direct carbon emissions free development, the direct carbon emissions will show a fast to slow upward trend in the next few years and began to flatten after 2020, and the direct carbon emissions of per capita will reach the peak in 2032. This is also confirmed that China is expected to reach its peak in carbon emissions by 2030 in theory.

gCUP: rapid GPU-based HIV-1 co-receptor usage prediction for next-generation sequencing.

PubMed

Olejnik, Michael; Steuwer, Michel; Gorlatch, Sergei; Heider, Dominik

2014-11-15

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) has a large potential in HIV diagnostics, and genotypic prediction models have been developed and successfully tested in the recent years. However, albeit being highly accurate, these computational models lack computational efficiency to reach their full potential. In this study, we demonstrate the use of graphics processing units (GPUs) in combination with a computational prediction model for HIV tropism. Our new model named gCUP, parallelized and optimized for GPU, is highly accurate and can classify >175 000 sequences per second on an NVIDIA GeForce GTX 460. The computational efficiency of our new model is the next step to enable NGS technologies to reach clinical significance in HIV diagnostics. Moreover, our approach is not limited to HIV tropism prediction, but can also be easily adapted to other settings, e.g. drug resistance prediction. The source code can be downloaded at http://www.heiderlab.de d.heider@wz-straubing.de. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Audibility-based predictions of speech recognition for children and adults with normal hearing.

PubMed

McCreery, Ryan W; Stelmachowicz, Patricia G

2011-12-01

This study investigated the relationship between audibility and predictions of speech recognition for children and adults with normal hearing. The Speech Intelligibility Index (SII) is used to quantify the audibility of speech signals and can be applied to transfer functions to predict speech recognition scores. Although the SII is used clinically with children, relatively few studies have evaluated SII predictions of children's speech recognition directly. Children have required more audibility than adults to reach maximum levels of speech understanding in previous studies. Furthermore, children may require greater bandwidth than adults for optimal speech understanding, which could influence frequency-importance functions used to calculate the SII. Speech recognition was measured for 116 children and 19 adults with normal hearing. Stimulus bandwidth and background noise level were varied systematically in order to evaluate speech recognition as predicted by the SII and derive frequency-importance functions for children and adults. Results suggested that children required greater audibility to reach the same level of speech understanding as adults. However, differences in performance between adults and children did not vary across frequency bands. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Prediction of burnout of a conduction-cooled BSCCO current lead

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seol, S.Y.; Cha, Y.S.; Niemann, R.C.

A one-dimensional heat conduction model is employed to predict burnout of a Bi{sub 2}Sr{sub 2}CaCu{sub 2}O{sub 8} current lead. The upper end of the lead is assumed to be at 77 K and the lower end is at 4 K. The results show that burnout always occurs at the warmer end of the lead. The lead reaches its burnout temperature in two distinct stage. Initially, the temperature rises slowly when part of the lead is in flux-flow state. As the local temperature reaches the critical temperature, it begins to increase sharply. Burnout time depends strongly on flux-flow resistivity.

Action Experience Changes Attention to Kinematic Cues

PubMed Central

Filippi, Courtney A.; Woodward, Amanda L.

2016-01-01

The current study used remote corneal reflection eye-tracking to examine the relationship between motor experience and action anticipation in 13-months-old infants. To measure online anticipation of actions infants watched videos where the actor’s hand provided kinematic information (in its orientation) about the type of object that the actor was going to reach for. The actor’s hand orientation either matched the orientation of a rod (congruent cue) or did not match the orientation of the rod (incongruent cue). To examine relations between motor experience and action anticipation, we used a 2 (reach first vs. observe first) × 2 (congruent kinematic cue vs. incongruent kinematic cue) between-subjects design. We show that 13-months-old infants in the observe first condition spontaneously generate rapid online visual predictions to congruent hand orientation cues and do not visually anticipate when presented incongruent cues. We further demonstrate that the speed that these infants generate predictions to congruent motor cues is correlated with their own ability to pre-shape their hands. Finally, we demonstrate that following reaching experience, infants generate rapid predictions to both congruent and incongruent hand shape cues—suggesting that short-term experience changes attention to kinematics. PMID:26913012

Predicting Magazine Audiences with a Loglinear Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-01

Journal of Advertising Research , 1...Exposure Distribution Models," Journal of Advertising Research , 22, 35-44. (1982b), "How Media Directors View Reach/Frequency Estima- tion," Journal of Advertising Research , 22...Research Quarterly, 14, 4, 365-376. Liebman, L. and Lee, E. (1974), "Reach and Frequency Estimation Services," Journal of Advertising Research , 14,

Managing the Mississippi River floodplain: Achieving ecological benefits requires more than hydrological connection to the river: Chapter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schramm, Harold; Richardson, William B.; Knights, Brent C.

2015-01-01

Floodplains are vital to the structure and function of river-floodplain ecosystems. Among the many ecological services provided by floodplains are nutrient cycling and seasonal habitats for fish, including spawning, nursery, foraging and wintering habitats. Connections between the river channel and floodplain habitats are essential to realize these ecological services, but spatial and temporal aspects of the connection and contemporary geomorphology must also be considered in restoration efforts. This chapter synthesizes available information to compare floodplain function and needed management strategies in two extensive reaches (upper impounded and lower free-flowing) of the Mississippi River, USA. The upper impounded reach is the 523-km reach from about Minneapolis, Minnesota to Clinton, Iowa. This reach has been impounded and channelized for navigation. Mean annual water-level fluctuation ranges from 1 to 2 m in the navigation pools in this reach. Floodplain environmental conditions that affect nitrogen cycling and fish production vary seasonally and longitudinally within and among navigation pools. Significant issues affecting ecological services include sedimentation, constrained water level fluctuations, island erosion and seasonal hypoxia. The lower free-flowing reach, the 1570-km reach from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to the Gulf of Mexico, has no dams and average annual fluctuations of 7 m throughout most of the reach. Despite the substantial flood pulse, floodplain inundation is often brief and may not occur annually. Significant issues affecting floodplain ecological function are the short duration and thermal asynchrony of the flood pulse, sedimentation and loss of connection between the river channel and permanent/semi-permanent floodplain water bodies due to channel incision. Needs and strategies for floodplain enhancement to increase ecological services, particularly nitrogen cycling and fish production, differ along the longitudinal gradient of the Mississippi River and provide informative contrasts to guide floodplain management. Prediction of the effects of climate change on this system will be complicated by the magnitude of the watershed that encompasses 41 % of the continental USA and multiple climatic regions.

Abnormal early cleavage events predict early embryo demise: sperm oxidative stress and early abnormal cleavage.

PubMed

Burruel, Victoria; Klooster, Katie; Barker, Christopher M; Pera, Renee Reijo; Meyers, Stuart

2014-10-13

Human embryos resulting from abnormal early cleavage can result in aneuploidy and failure to develop normally to the blastocyst stage. The nature of paternal influence on early embryo development has not been directly demonstrated although many studies have suggested effects from spermatozoal chromatin packaging, DNA damage, centriolar and mitotic spindle integrity, and plasma membrane integrity. The goal of this study was to determine whether early developmental events were affected by oxidative damage to the fertilizing sperm. Survival analysis was used to compare patterns of blastocyst formation based on P2 duration. Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrate that relatively few embryos with short (<1 hr) P2 times reached blastocysts, and the two curves diverged beginning on day 4, with nearly all of the embryos with longer P2 times reaching blastocysts by day 6 (p < .01). We determined that duration of the 2nd to 3rd mitoses were sensitive periods in the presence of spermatozoal oxidative stress. Embryos that displayed either too long or too short cytokineses demonstrated an increased failure to reach blastocyst stage and therefore survive for further development. Although paternal-derived gene expression occurs later in development, this study suggests a specific role in early mitosis that is highly influenced by paternal factors.

A Probabilistic Strategy for Understanding Action Selection

PubMed Central

Kim, Byounghoon; Basso, Michele A.

2010-01-01

Brain regions involved in transforming sensory signals into movement commands are the likely sites where decisions are formed. Once formed, a decision must be read-out from the activity of populations of neurons to produce a choice of action. How this occurs remains unresolved. We recorded from four superior colliculus (SC) neurons simultaneously while monkeys performed a target selection task. We implemented three models to gain insight into the computational principles underlying population coding of action selection. We compared the population vector average (PVA), winner-takes-all (WTA) and a Bayesian model, maximum a posteriori estimate (MAP) to determine which predicted choices most often. The probabilistic model predicted more trials correctly than both the WTA and the PVA. The MAP model predicted 81.88% whereas WTA predicted 71.11% and PVA/OLE predicted the least number of trials at 55.71 and 69.47%. Recovering MAP estimates using simulated, non-uniform priors that correlated with monkeys’ choice performance, improved the accuracy of the model by 2.88%. A dynamic analysis revealed that the MAP estimate evolved over time and the posterior probability of the saccade choice reached a maximum at the time of the saccade. MAP estimates also scaled with choice performance accuracy. Although there was overlap in the prediction abilities of all the models, we conclude that movement choice from populations of neurons may be best understood by considering frameworks based on probability. PMID:20147560

Tidal-Fluvial and Estuarine Processes in the Lower Columbia River: II. Water Level Models, Floodplain Wetland Inundation, and System Zones

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jay, David A.; Borde, Amy B.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.

Spatially varying water-level regimes are a factor controlling estuarine and tidal-fluvial wetland vegetation patterns. As described in Part I, water levels in the Lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE) are influenced by tides, river flow, hydropower operations, and coastal processes. In Part II, regression models based on tidal theory are used to quantify the role of these processes in determining water levels in the mainstem river and floodplain wetlands, and to provide 21-year inundation hindcasts. Analyses are conducted at 19 LCRE mainstem channel stations and 23 tidally exposed floodplain wetland stations. Sum exceedance values (SEVs) are used to compare wetlandmore » hydrologic regimes at different locations on the river floodplain. A new predictive tool is introduced and validated, the potential SEV (pSEV), which can reduce the need for extensive new data collection in wetland restoration planning. Models of water levels and inundation frequency distinguish four zones encompassing eight reaches. The system zones are the wave- and current-dominated Entrance to river kilometer (rkm) 5; the Estuary (rkm-5 to 87), comprised of a lower reach with salinity, the energy minimum (where the turbidity maximum normally occurs), and an upper estuary reach without salinity; the Tidal River (rkm-87 to 229), with lower, middle, and upper reaches in which river flow becomes increasingly dominant over tides in determining water levels; and the steep and weakly tidal Cascade (rkm-229 to 234) immediately downstream from Bonneville Dam. The same zonation is seen in the water levels of floodplain stations, with considerable modification of tidal properties. The system zones and reaches defined here reflect geological features and their boundaries are congruent with five wetland vegetation zones« less

Predictive Models of the Hydrological Regime of Unregulated Streams in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anning, David W.; Parker, John T.C.

2009-01-01

Three statistical models were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality to improve the predictability of flow occurrence in unregulated streams throughout Arizona. The models can be used to predict the probabilities of the hydrological regime being one of four categories developed by this investigation: perennial, which has streamflow year-round; nearly perennial, which has streamflow 90 to 99.9 percent of the year; weakly perennial, which has streamflow 80 to 90 percent of the year; or nonperennial, which has streamflow less than 80 percent of the year. The models were developed to assist the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality in selecting sites for participation in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program. One model was developed for each of the three hydrologic provinces in Arizona - the Plateau Uplands, the Central Highlands, and the Basin and Range Lowlands. The models for predicting the hydrological regime were calibrated using statistical methods and explanatory variables of discharge, drainage-area, altitude, and location data for selected U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations and a climate index derived from annual precipitation data. Models were calibrated on the basis of streamflow data from 46 stations for the Plateau Uplands province, 82 stations for the Central Highlands province, and 90 stations for the Basin and Range Lowlands province. The models were developed using classification trees that facilitated the analysis of mixed numeric and factor variables. In all three models, a threshold stream discharge was the initial variable to be considered within the classification tree and was the single most important explanatory variable. If a stream discharge value at a station was below the threshold, then the station record was determined as being nonperennial. If, however, the stream discharge was above the threshold, subsequent decisions were made according to the classification tree and explanatory variables to determine the hydrological regime of the reach as being perennial, nearly perennial, weakly perennial, or nonperennial. Using model calibration data, misclassification rates for each model were 17 percent for the Plateau Uplands, 15 percent for the Central Highlands, and 14 percent for the Basin and Range Lowlands models. The actual misclassification rate may be higher; however, the model has not been field verified for a full error assessment. The calibrated models were used to classify stream reaches for which the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality had collected miscellaneous discharge measurements. A total of 5,080 measurements at 696 sites were routed through the appropriate classification tree to predict the hydrological regime of the reaches in which the measurements were made. The predictions resulted in classification of all stream reaches as perennial or nonperennial; no reaches were predicted as nearly perennial or weakly perennial. The percentages of sites predicted as being perennial and nonperennial, respectively, were 77 and 23 for the Plateau Uplands, 87 and 13 for the Central Highlands, and 76 and 24 for the Basin and Range Lowlands.

A study on a robot arm driven by three-dimensional trajectories predicted from non-invasive neural signals.

PubMed

Kim, Yoon Jae; Park, Sung Woo; Yeom, Hong Gi; Bang, Moon Suk; Kim, June Sic; Chung, Chun Kee; Kim, Sungwan

2015-08-20

A brain-machine interface (BMI) should be able to help people with disabilities by replacing their lost motor functions. To replace lost functions, robot arms have been developed that are controlled by invasive neural signals. Although invasive neural signals have a high spatial resolution, non-invasive neural signals are valuable because they provide an interface without surgery. Thus, various researchers have developed robot arms driven by non-invasive neural signals. However, robot arm control based on the imagined trajectory of a human hand can be more intuitive for patients. In this study, therefore, an integrated robot arm-gripper system (IRAGS) that is driven by three-dimensional (3D) hand trajectories predicted from non-invasive neural signals was developed and verified. The IRAGS was developed by integrating a six-degree of freedom robot arm and adaptive robot gripper. The system was used to perform reaching and grasping motions for verification. The non-invasive neural signals, magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG), were obtained to control the system. The 3D trajectories were predicted by multiple linear regressions. A target sphere was placed at the terminal point of the real trajectories, and the system was commanded to grasp the target at the terminal point of the predicted trajectories. The average correlation coefficient between the predicted and real trajectories in the MEG case was [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]). In the EEG case, it was [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]). The success rates in grasping the target plastic sphere were 18.75 and 7.50 % with MEG and EEG, respectively. The success rates of touching the target were 52.50 and 58.75 % respectively. A robot arm driven by 3D trajectories predicted from non-invasive neural signals was implemented, and reaching and grasping motions were performed. In most cases, the robot closely approached the target, but the success rate was not very high because the non-invasive neural signal is less accurate. However the success rate could be sufficiently improved for practical applications by using additional sensors. Robot arm control based on hand trajectories predicted from EEG would allow for portability, and the performance with EEG was comparable to that with MEG.

A Statistical Evaluation of the Diagnostic Performance of MEDAS-The Medical Emergency Decision Assistance System

PubMed Central

Georgakis, D. Christine; Trace, David A.; Naeymi-Rad, Frank; Evens, Martha

1990-01-01

Medical expert systems require comprehensive evaluation of their diagnostic accuracy. The usefulness of these systems is limited without established evaluation methods. We propose a new methodology for evaluating the diagnostic accuracy and the predictive capacity of a medical expert system. We have adapted to the medical domain measures that have been used in the social sciences to examine the performance of human experts in the decision making process. Thus, in addition to the standard summary measures, we use measures of agreement and disagreement, and Goodman and Kruskal's λ and τ measures of predictive association. This methodology is illustrated by a detailed retrospective evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of the MEDAS system. In a study using 270 patients admitted to the North Chicago Veterans Administration Hospital, diagnoses produced by MEDAS are compared with the discharge diagnoses of the attending physicians. The results of the analysis confirm the high diagnostic accuracy and predictive capacity of the MEDAS system. Overall, the agreement of the MEDAS system with the “gold standard” diagnosis of the attending physician has reached a 90% level.

Equilibrium β-limits in classical stellarators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loizu, Joaquim; Hudson, S. R.; Nuhrenberg, C.

Here, a numerical investigation is carried out to understand the equilibrium β-limit in a classical stellarator. The stepped-pressure equilibrium code is used in order to assess whether or not magnetic islands and stochastic field-lines can emerge at high β. Two modes of operation are considered: a zero-net-current stellarator and a fixed-iota stellarator. Despite the fact that relaxation is allowed, the former is shown to maintain good flux surfaces up to the equilibrium β-limit predicted by ideal-magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), above which a separatrix forms. The latter, which has no ideal equilibrium β-limit, is shown to develop regions of magnetic islands and chaosmore » at sufficiently high β, thereby providing a ‘non-ideal β-limit’. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the value of β at which the Shafranov shift of the axis reaches a fraction of the minor radius follows in all cases the scaling laws predicted by ideal-MHD. We compare our results to the High-Beta-Stellarator theory of Freidberg and derive a new prediction for the non-ideal equilibrium β-limit above which chaos emerges.« less

Equilibrium β-limits in classical stellarators

DOE PAGES

Loizu, Joaquim; Hudson, S. R.; Nuhrenberg, C.; ...

2017-11-17

Here, a numerical investigation is carried out to understand the equilibrium β-limit in a classical stellarator. The stepped-pressure equilibrium code is used in order to assess whether or not magnetic islands and stochastic field-lines can emerge at high β. Two modes of operation are considered: a zero-net-current stellarator and a fixed-iota stellarator. Despite the fact that relaxation is allowed, the former is shown to maintain good flux surfaces up to the equilibrium β-limit predicted by ideal-magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), above which a separatrix forms. The latter, which has no ideal equilibrium β-limit, is shown to develop regions of magnetic islands and chaosmore » at sufficiently high β, thereby providing a ‘non-ideal β-limit’. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the value of β at which the Shafranov shift of the axis reaches a fraction of the minor radius follows in all cases the scaling laws predicted by ideal-MHD. We compare our results to the High-Beta-Stellarator theory of Freidberg and derive a new prediction for the non-ideal equilibrium β-limit above which chaos emerges.« less

Including carrier-mediated transport in oral uptake prediction of nutrients and pharmaceuticals in humans.

PubMed

O'Connor, Isabel A; Veltman, Karin; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Ragas, Ad M J; Russel, Frans G M; Hendriks, A Jan

2014-11-01

Most toxicokinetic models consider passive diffusion as the only mechanism when modeling the oral uptake of chemicals. However, the overall uptake of nutrients and xenobiotics, such as pharmaceuticals and environmental pollutants, can be increased by influx transport proteins. We incorporated carrier-mediated transport into a one-compartment toxicokinetic model originally developed for passive diffusion only. The predictions were compared with measured oral uptake efficiencies of nutrients and pharmaceuticals, i.e. the fraction of the chemical reaching systemic circulation. Including carrier-mediated uptake improved model predictions for hydrophilic nutrients (RMSE=10% vs. 56%, Coefficient of Efficiency CoE=0.5 vs. -9.6) and for pharmaceuticals (RMSE=21% vs. 28% and CoE=-0.4 vs. -1.1). However, the negative CoE for pharmaceuticals indicates that further improvements are needed. Most important in this respect is a more accurate estimation of vMAX and KM as well as the determination of the amount of expressed and functional transport proteins both in vivo and in vitro. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relating hyporheic fluxes, residence times, and redox-sensitive biogeochemical processes upstream of beaver dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Lautz, Laura; Hare, Danielle K.

2013-01-01

¨hler number seemed to overestimate the actual transition as indicated by multiple secondary electron acceptors, illustrating the gradient nature of anaerobic transition. Temporal flux variability in low-flux morphologies generated a much greater range in hyporheic redox conditions compared to high-flux zones, and chemical responses to changing flux rates were consistent with those predicted from the empirical relationship between redox condition and residence time. The Raz tracer revealed that hyporheic flow paths have strong net aerobic respiration, particularly at higher residence time, but this reactive exchange did not affect the net stream signal at the reach scale.

A Scalable Approach to Probabilistic Latent Space Inference of Large-Scale Networks

PubMed Central

Yin, Junming; Ho, Qirong; Xing, Eric P.

2014-01-01

We propose a scalable approach for making inference about latent spaces of large networks. With a succinct representation of networks as a bag of triangular motifs, a parsimonious statistical model, and an efficient stochastic variational inference algorithm, we are able to analyze real networks with over a million vertices and hundreds of latent roles on a single machine in a matter of hours, a setting that is out of reach for many existing methods. When compared to the state-of-the-art probabilistic approaches, our method is several orders of magnitude faster, with competitive or improved accuracy for latent space recovery and link prediction. PMID:25400487

Flood Frequency Analysis using different flood descriptors - the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamuz, Emilia; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Romanowicz, Renata

2014-05-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is customarily performed using annual maximum flows. However, there is a number of different flood descriptors that could be used. Among them are water levels, peaks over the threshold, flood-wave duration, flood volume, etc. In this study we compare different approaches to FFA for their suitability for flood risk assessment. The main goal is to obtain the FFA curve with the smallest possible uncertainty limits, in particular for the distribution tail. The extrapolation of FFA curves is crucial in future flood risk assessment in a changing climate. We compare the FFA curves together with their uncertainty limits obtained using flows, water levels, flood inundation area and volumes for the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula. Moreover, we derive the FFA curves obtained using simulated flows. The results are used to derive the error distribution for the maximum simulated and observed values under different modelling techniques and assess its influence on flood risk predictions for ungauged catchments. MIKE11, HEC-RAS and transfer function model are applied in average and extreme conditions to model flow propagation in the Warsaw Vistula reach. The additional questions we want to answer are what is the range of application of different modelling tools under various flow conditions and how can the uncertainty of flood risk assessment be decreased. This work was partly supported by the projects "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" and "Modern statistical models for analysis of flood frequency and features of flood waves", carried by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences on the order of the National Science Centre (contracts Nos. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866 and 2012/05/B/ST10/00482, respectively). The water level and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

To what degree does cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease predict dependence of patients on caregivers?

PubMed Central

Caro, Jaime; Ward, Alexandra; Ishak, Khajak; Migliaccio-Walle, Kristen; Getsios, Denis; Papadopoulos, George; Torfs, Koen

2002-01-01

Background Patients with Alzheimer's disease experience a progressive loss of cognitive function, and the ability to independently perform activities of daily life. Sometimes a dependent stage is reached quite early in the disease, when caregivers decide that the patients can no longer be left alone safely. This is an important aspect of Alzheimer's for patients, their families, and also health care providers. Understanding the relationship between a patient's current cognitive status and their need for care may assist clinicians when recommending an appropriate management plan. In this study, we investigated the relationship of cognitive function to dependence on caregivers before the patients reach a severe stage of the disease. Methods Data were obtained on 1,289 patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease studied in two randomised clinical trials of galantamine (Reminyl®). Cognition was assessed using the cognitive part of the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS-cog) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Patients were considered dependent if they required >12 hours of supervision each day or had high care needs. The Disability Assessment for Dementia (DAD) scale was also used as a measure of dependence. Disability was predicted directly using MMSE and ADAS-cog and compared to predictions from converted scores. Results The odds ratio of dependence was significantly higher amongst the patients with worse cognitive impairment, adjusting for age, gender and antipsychotic medication use. For example, a 4-point difference in ADAS-cog score was associated with an increase of 17% (95% CI 11–23) in the adjusted odds for >12 hours of supervision, and of 35% (95% CI 28–43) for dependence. Disability predicted directly using actual ADAS-cog and scores converted from MMSE values had close agreement using the models developed. Conclusion In patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease, even relatively small degrees of poorer cognitive function increased the risk of losing the ability to live independently. PMID:12184819

A Two-Stage Process Model of Sensory Discrimination: An Alternative to Drift-Diffusion

PubMed Central

Landy, Michael S.

2016-01-01

Discrimination of the direction of motion of a noisy stimulus is an example of sensory discrimination under uncertainty. For stimuli that are extended in time, reaction time is quicker for larger signal values (e.g., discrimination of opposite directions of motion compared with neighboring orientations) and larger signal strength (e.g., stimuli with higher contrast or motion coherence, that is, lower noise). The standard model of neural responses (e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex) and reaction time for discrimination is drift-diffusion. This model makes two clear predictions. (1) The effects of signal strength and value on reaction time should interact multiplicatively because the diffusion process depends on the signal-to-noise ratio. (2) If the diffusion process is interrupted, as in a cued-response task, the time to decision after the cue should be independent of the strength of accumulated sensory evidence. In two experiments with human participants, we show that neither prediction holds. A simple alternative model is developed that is consistent with the results. In this estimate-then-decide model, evidence is accumulated until estimation precision reaches a threshold value. Then, a decision is made with duration that depends on the signal-to-noise ratio achieved by the first stage. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Sensory decision-making under uncertainty is usually modeled as the slow accumulation of noisy sensory evidence until a threshold amount of evidence supporting one of the possible decision outcomes is reached. Furthermore, it has been suggested that this accumulation process is reflected in neural responses, e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex. We derive two behavioral predictions of this model and show that neither prediction holds. We introduce a simple alternative model in which evidence is accumulated until a sufficiently precise estimate of the stimulus is achieved, and then that estimate is used to guide the discrimination decision. This model is consistent with the behavioral data. PMID:27807167

A Two-Stage Process Model of Sensory Discrimination: An Alternative to Drift-Diffusion.

PubMed

Sun, Peng; Landy, Michael S

2016-11-02

Discrimination of the direction of motion of a noisy stimulus is an example of sensory discrimination under uncertainty. For stimuli that are extended in time, reaction time is quicker for larger signal values (e.g., discrimination of opposite directions of motion compared with neighboring orientations) and larger signal strength (e.g., stimuli with higher contrast or motion coherence, that is, lower noise). The standard model of neural responses (e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex) and reaction time for discrimination is drift-diffusion. This model makes two clear predictions. (1) The effects of signal strength and value on reaction time should interact multiplicatively because the diffusion process depends on the signal-to-noise ratio. (2) If the diffusion process is interrupted, as in a cued-response task, the time to decision after the cue should be independent of the strength of accumulated sensory evidence. In two experiments with human participants, we show that neither prediction holds. A simple alternative model is developed that is consistent with the results. In this estimate-then-decide model, evidence is accumulated until estimation precision reaches a threshold value. Then, a decision is made with duration that depends on the signal-to-noise ratio achieved by the first stage. Sensory decision-making under uncertainty is usually modeled as the slow accumulation of noisy sensory evidence until a threshold amount of evidence supporting one of the possible decision outcomes is reached. Furthermore, it has been suggested that this accumulation process is reflected in neural responses, e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex. We derive two behavioral predictions of this model and show that neither prediction holds. We introduce a simple alternative model in which evidence is accumulated until a sufficiently precise estimate of the stimulus is achieved, and then that estimate is used to guide the discrimination decision. This model is consistent with the behavioral data. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3611259-16$15.00/0.

[Prediction models of soil organic matter based on spectral curve in the upstream of Heihe basin].

PubMed

Liu, Jiao; Li, Yi; Liu, Shi-Bin

2013-12-01

Benefiting from the high spectral resolution, ground hyperspectral remote sensing technology can express the ground surface feature in detail, meanwhile, multispectral remote sensing has more advantages in studying the features in a large space time region, because of its long time-series images and wide coverage. Investigating the prediction models between the soil organic matter (SOM) content and the hyperspectral data and the sensitive bands based on different indices mathematically obtained from reflectance could combine the advantages of both kinds of spectral data, and provide a new method to search the spatio-temporal characteristics of SOM. Two hundred twenty three soil samples were chosen from the upper reaches of Heihe Basin to measure the SOM content and hyperspectral curve. Taking 181 of them, the stepwise linear regression methods were used to establish models between the SOM and five indices, including reflectance (lambda), reciprocal (REC), logarithm of the reciprocal (LR), continuum-removal (CR) and the first derivative reflectance (FDR). After then, the left 42 samples were used for model validation: firstly, the best model of the same index was chosen by the values of Pearson correlation coefficient (r) and Root mean squared error (RMSE) between the measured value and predicted value; secondly, the best models of different indices were compared. As a result, the model built by reflectance has a better estimation of SOM with the r: 0.863 and RMSE: 4.79. And the sensitive bands of the reflectance model contain 474 nm during TM1, 636 nm during TM3 and 1 632 nm during TM5. This result could be a reference for the retrieval of SOM content of the upper reaches by using the TM remote sensing data.

Is Brazil going to achieve the road traffic deaths target? An analysis about the sustainable development goals.

PubMed

Blumenberg, Cauane; Martins, Rafaela C; Calu Costa, Janaína; Ricardo, Luiza I C

2017-09-07

To describe the temporal relationship between the road traffic mortality rate and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Brazil, and make an annual prediction of the evolution of both indicators until 2020, the end of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) monitoring period. Brazilian road traffic mortality rate official data were described from 2000 to 2015, while the GDP per capita official data were described from 2000 to 2013. GDP per capita and traffic mortality rate predictions were performed until 2020 using fractional polynomial analysis. Correlations were assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. From 2000 to 2015, there were over 446 000 road crashes fatal victims in Brazil. The road traffic mortality rate was positively related to the Brazilian GDP per capita, with a strong correlation (r=0.89; p<0.001) from 2000 to 2013 and a mild correlation (r=0.55; p<0.001) considering the whole period (2000-2020). The predictions show a reduction on the road traffic mortality rates in Brazil; however, if this same reduction pace continues, we estimate that the country will reach 12.4 road crash deaths per 100 000 inhabitants in 2020, a reduction of only 13.4% compared with 2015. If the same mortality reduction pace continues in Brazil, the country will not reach the proposed SDG, which is to reduce by half the number of deaths per 100 000 inhabitants. In addition, an intertwined conciliation between economical growth, sustainable development and public policies is needed in order to meet such an overwhelming goal. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Should fluid dynamics be included in computer models of RF cardiac ablation by irrigated-tip electrodes?

PubMed

González-Suárez, Ana; Pérez, Juan J; Berjano, Enrique

2018-04-20

Although accurate modeling of the thermal performance of irrigated-tip electrodes in radiofrequency cardiac ablation requires the solution of a triple coupled problem involving simultaneous electrical conduction, heat transfer, and fluid dynamics, in certain cases it is difficult to combine the software with the expertise necessary to solve these coupled problems, so that reduced models have to be considered. We here focus on a reduced model which avoids the fluid dynamics problem by setting a constant temperature at the electrode tip. Our aim was to compare the reduced and full models in terms of predicting lesion dimensions and the temperatures reached in tissue and blood. The results showed that the reduced model overestimates the lesion surface width by up to 5 mm (i.e. 70%) for any electrode insertion depth and blood flow rate. Likewise, it drastically overestimates the maximum blood temperature by more than 15 °C in all cases. However, the reduced model is able to predict lesion depth reasonably well (within 0.1 mm of the full model), and also the maximum tissue temperature (difference always less than 3 °C). These results were valid throughout the entire ablation time (60 s) and regardless of blood flow rate and electrode insertion depth (ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 mm). The findings suggest that the reduced model is not able to predict either the lesion surface width or the maximum temperature reached in the blood, and so would not be suitable for the study of issues related to blood temperature, such as the incidence of thrombus formation during ablation. However, it could be used to study issues related to maximum tissue temperature, such as the steam pop phenomenon.

Two-dimensional streamflow simulations of the Jordan River, Midvale and West Jordan, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kenney, Terry A.; Freeman, Michael L.

2011-01-01

The Jordan River in Midvale and West Jordan, Utah, flows adjacent to two U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Superfund sites: Midvale Slag and Sharon Steel. At both sites, geotechnical caps extend to the east bank of the river. The final remediation tasks for these sites included the replacement of a historic sheet-pile dam and the stabilization of the river banks adjacent to the Superfund sites. To assist with these tasks, two hydraulic modeling codes contained in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System (MD_SWMS), System for Transport and River Modeling (SToRM) and Flow and Sediment Transport and Morphological Evolution of Channels (FaSTMECH), were used to provide predicted water-surface elevations, velocities, and boundary shear-stress values throughout the study reach of the Jordan River. A SToRM model of a 0.7 mile subreach containing the sheet-pile dam was used to compare water-surface elevations and velocities associated with the sheet-pile dam and a proposed replacement structure. Maps showing water-surface elevation and velocity differences computed from simulations of the historic sheet-pile dam and the proposed replacement structure topographies for streamflows of 500 and 1,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) were created. These difference maps indicated that the velocities associated with the proposed replacement structure topographies were less than or equal to those associated with the historic sheet-pile dam. Similarly, water-surface elevations associated with the proposed replacement structure topographies were all either greater than or equal to water-surface elevations associated with the sheet-pile dam. A FaSTMECH model was developed for the 2.5-mile study reach to aid engineers in bank stabilization designs. Predicted water-surface elevations, velocities and shear-stress values were mapped on an aerial photograph of the study reach to place these parameters in a spatial context. Profile plots of predicted cross-stream average water-surface elevations and cross-stream maximum and average velocities showed how these parameters change along the study reach for two simulated discharges of 1,040 ft3/s and 2,790 ft3/s. The profile plots for the simulated streamflow of 1,040 ft3/s show that the highest velocities are associated with the constructed sheet-pile replacement structure. Results for the simulated streamflow of 2,790 ft3/s indicate that the geometry of the 7800 South Bridge causes more backwater and higher velocities than the constructed sheet-pile replacement structure.

Inferring transit time distributions from atmospheric tracer data: Assessment of the predictive capacities of Lumped Parameter Models on a 3D crystalline aquifer model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marçais, J.; de Dreuzy, J.-R.; Ginn, T. R.; Rousseau-Gueutin, P.; Leray, S.

2015-06-01

While central in groundwater resources and contaminant fate, Transit Time Distributions (TTDs) are never directly accessible from field measurements but always deduced from a combination of tracer data and more or less involved models. We evaluate the predictive capabilities of approximate distributions (Lumped Parameter Models abbreviated as LPMs) instead of fully developed aquifer models. We develop a generic assessment methodology based on synthetic aquifer models to establish references for observable quantities as tracer concentrations and prediction targets as groundwater renewal times. Candidate LPMs are calibrated on the observable tracer concentrations and used to infer renewal time predictions, which are compared with the reference ones. This methodology is applied to the produced crystalline aquifer of Plœmeur (Brittany, France) where flows leak through a micaschists aquitard to reach a sloping aquifer where they radially converge to the producing well, issuing broad rather than multi-modal TTDs. One, two and three parameters LPMs were calibrated to a corresponding number of simulated reference anthropogenic tracer concentrations (CFC-11, 85Kr and SF6). Extensive statistical analysis over the aquifer shows that a good fit of the anthropogenic tracer concentrations is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition to reach acceptable predictive capability. Prediction accuracy is however strongly conditioned by the use of a priori relevant LPMs. Only adequate LPM shapes yield unbiased estimations. In the case of Plœmeur, relevant LPMs should have two parameters to capture the mean and the standard deviation of the residence times and cover the first few decades [0; 50 years]. Inverse Gaussian and shifted exponential performed equally well for the wide variety of the reference TTDs from strongly peaked in recharge zones where flows are diverging to broadly distributed in more converging zones. When using two sufficiently different atmospheric tracers like CFC-11 and 85Kr, groundwater renewal time predictions are accurate at 1-5 years for estimating mean transit times of some decades (10-50 years). 1-parameter LPMs calibrated on a single atmospheric tracer lead to substantially larger errors of the order of 10 years, while 3-parameter LPMs calibrated with a third atmospheric tracers (SF6) do not improve the prediction capabilities. Based on a specific site, this study highlights the high predictive capacities of two atmospheric tracers on the same time range with sufficiently different atmospheric concentration chronicles.

The Impact of Community Based Health Insurance in Enhancing Better Accessibility and Lowering the Chance of Having Financial Catastrophe Due to Health Service Utilization: A Case Study of Savannakhet Province, Laos.

PubMed

Bodhisane, Somdeth; Pongpanich, Sathirakorn

2017-07-01

The Lao population mostly relies on out-of-pocket expenditures for health care services. This study aims to determine the role of community-based health insurance in making health care services accessible and in preventing financial catastrophe resulting from personal payment for inpatient services. A cross-sectional study design was applied. Data collection involved 126 insured and 126 uninsured households in identical study sites. Two logistic regression models were used to predict and compare the probability of hospitalization and financial catastrophe that occurred in both insured and uninsured households within the previous year. The findings show that insurance status does not significantly improve accessibility and financial protection against catastrophic expenditure. The reason is relatively simple, as catastrophic health expenditure refers to a total out-of-pocket payment equal to or more than 40% of household income minus subsistence. When household income declines as a result of inability to work due to illness, the 40% threshold is quickly reached. Despite this, results suggest that insured households are not significantly better off under community-based health insurance. However, compared to uninsured households, insured households do have better accessibility and a lower probability of reaching the financial catastrophe threshold.

Not so secret agents: Event-related potentials to semantic roles in visual event comprehension.

PubMed

Cohn, Neil; Paczynski, Martin; Kutas, Marta

2017-12-01

Research across domains has suggested that agents, the doers of actions, have a processing advantage over patients, the receivers of actions. We hypothesized that agents as "event builders" for discrete actions (e.g., throwing a ball, punching) build on cues embedded in their preparatory postures (e.g., reaching back an arm to throw or punch) that lead to (predictable) culminating actions, and that these cues afford frontloading of event structure processing. To test this hypothesis, we compared event-related brain potentials (ERPs) to averbal comic panels depicting preparatory agents (ex. reaching back an arm to punch) that cued specific actions with those to non-preparatory agents (ex. arm to the side) and patients that did not cue any specific actions. We also compared subsequent completed action panels (ex. agent punching patient) across conditions, where we expected an inverse pattern of ERPs indexing the differential costs of processing completed actions asa function of preparatory cues. Preparatory agents evoked a greater frontal positivity (600-900ms) relative to non-preparatory agents and patients, while subsequent completed actions panels following non-preparatory agents elicited a smaller frontal positivity (600-900ms). These results suggest that preparatory (vs. non-) postures may differentially impact the processing of agents and subsequent actions in real time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of basal metabolic rate in Chinese: are the current prediction equations applicable?

PubMed

Camps, Stefan G; Wang, Nan Xin; Tan, Wei Shuan Kimberly; Henry, C Jeyakumar

2016-08-31

Measurement of basal metabolic rate (BMR) is suggested as a tool to estimate energy requirements. Therefore, BMR prediction equations have been developed in multiple populations because indirect calorimetry is not always feasible. However, there is a paucity of data on BMR measured in overweight and obese adults living in Asia and equations developed for this group of interest. The aim of this study was to develop a new BMR prediction equation for Chinese adults applicable for a large BMI range and compare it with commonly used prediction equations. Subjects were 121 men and 111 women (age: 21-67 years, BMI: 16-41 kg/m(2)). Height, weight, and BMR were measured. Continuous open-circuit indirect calorimetry using a ventilated hood system for 30 min was used to measure BMR. A regression equation was derived using stepwise regression and accuracy was compared to 6 existing equations (Harris-Benedict, Henry, Liu, Yang, Owen and Mifflin). Additionally, the newly derived equation was cross-validated in a separate group of 70 Chinese subjects (26 men and 44 women, age: 21-69 years, BMI: 17-39 kg/m(2)). The equation developed from our data was: BMR (kJ/d) = 52.6 x weight (kg) + 828 x gender + 1960 (women = 0, men = 1; R(2) = 0.81). The accuracy rate (within 10 % accurate) was 78 % which compared well to Owen (70 %), Henry (67 %), Mifflin (67 %), Liu (58 %), Harris-Benedict (45 %) and Yang (37 %) for the whole range of BMI. For a BMI greater than 23, the Singapore equation reached an accuracy rate of 76 %. Cross-validation proved an accuracy rate of 80 %. To date, the newly developed Singapore equation is the most accurate BMR prediction equation in Chinese and is applicable for use in a large BMI range including those overweight and obese.

Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Peña-Gómez, Francisco T; Guerrero, Pablo C; Bizama, Gustavo; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O

2014-01-01

Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche conservatism but there is potential for further expansion in Chile.

Usefulness of Midregional Proadrenomedullin to Predict Poor Outcome in Patients with Community Acquired Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Gordo-Remartínez, Susana; Sevillano-Fernández, José A.; Álvarez-Sala, Luis A.; Andueza-Lillo, Juan A.; de Miguel-Yanes, José M.

2015-01-01

Background midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) is a prognostic biomarker in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We sought to confirm whether MR-proADM added to Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) improves the potential prognostic value of PSI alone, and tested to what extent this combination could be useful in predicting poor outcome of patients with CAP in an Emergency Department (ED). Methods Consecutive patients diagnosed with CAP were enrolled in this prospective, single-centre, observational study. We analyzed the ability of MR-proADM added to PSI to predict poor outcome using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, logistic regression and risk reclassification and comparing it with the ability of PSI alone. The primary outcome was “poor outcome”, defined as the incidence of an adverse event (ICU admission, hospital readmission, or mortality at 30 days after CAP diagnosis). Results 226 patients were included; 33 patients (14.6%) reached primary outcome. To predict primary outcome the highest area under curve (AUC) was found for PSI (0.74 [0.64-0.85]), which was not significantly higher than for MR-proADM (AUC 0.72 [0.63-0.81, p > 0.05]). The combination of PSI and MR-proADM failed to improve the predictive potential of PSI alone (AUC 0.75 [0.65-0.85, p=0.56]). Ten patients were appropriately reclassified when the combined PSI and MR-proADM model was used as compared with the model of PSI alone. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) index was statistically significant (7.69%, p = 0.03) with an improvement percentage of 3.03% (p = 0.32) for adverse event, and 4.66% (P = 0.02) for no adverse event. Conclusion MR-proADM in combination with PSI may be helpful in individual risk stratification for short-term poor outcome of CAP patients, allowing a better reclassification of patients compared with PSI alone. PMID:26030588

Coordinated turn-and-reach movements. I. Anticipatory compensation for self-generated coriolis and interaction torques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pigeon, Pascale; Bortolami, Simone B.; DiZio, Paul; Lackner, James R.

2003-01-01

When reaching movements involve simultaneous trunk rotation, additional interaction torques are generated on the arm that are absent when the trunk is stable. To explore whether the CNS compensates for such self-generated interaction torques, we recorded hand trajectories in reaching tasks involving various amplitudes and velocities of arm extension and trunk rotation. Subjects pointed to three targets on a surface slightly above waist level. Two of the target locations were chosen so that a similar arm configuration relative to the trunk would be required for reaching to them, one of these targets requiring substantial trunk rotation, the other very little. Significant trunk rotation was necessary to reach the third target, but the arm's radial distance to the body remained virtually unchanged. Subjects reached at two speeds-a natural pace (slow) and rapidly (fast)-under normal lighting and in total darkness. Trunk angular velocity and finger velocity relative to the trunk were higher in the fast conditions but were not affected by the presence or absence of vision. Peak trunk velocity increased with increasing trunk rotation up to a maximum of 200 degrees /s. In slow movements, peak finger velocity relative to the trunk was smaller when trunk rotation was necessary to reach the targets. In fast movements, peak finger velocity was approximately 1.7 m/s for all targets. Finger trajectories were more curved when reaching movements involved substantial trunk rotation; however, the terminal errors and the maximal deviation of the trajectory from a straight line were comparable in slow and fast movements. This pattern indicates that the larger Coriolis, centripetal, and inertial interaction torques generated during rapid reaches were compensated by additional joint torques. Trajectory characteristics did not vary with the presence or absence of vision, indicating that visual feedback was unnecessary for anticipatory compensations. In all reaches involving trunk rotation, the finger movement generally occurred entirely during the trunk movement, indicating that the CNS did not minimize Coriolis forces incumbent on trunk rotation by sequencing the arm and trunk motions into a turn followed by a reach. A simplified model of the arm/trunk system revealed that additional interaction torques generated on the arm during voluntary turning and reaching were equivalent to < or =1.8 g (1 g = 9.81 m/s(2)) of external force at the elbow but did not degrade performance. In slow-rotation room studies involving reaching movements during passive rotation, Coriolis forces as small as 0.2 g greatly deflect movement trajectories and endpoints. We conclude that compensatory motor innervations are engaged in a predictive fashion to counteract impending self-generated interaction torques during voluntary reaching movements.

Coordinated turn-and-reach movements. I. Anticipatory compensation for self-generated coriolis and interaction torques.

PubMed

Pigeon, Pascale; Bortolami, Simone B; DiZio, Paul; Lackner, James R

2003-01-01

When reaching movements involve simultaneous trunk rotation, additional interaction torques are generated on the arm that are absent when the trunk is stable. To explore whether the CNS compensates for such self-generated interaction torques, we recorded hand trajectories in reaching tasks involving various amplitudes and velocities of arm extension and trunk rotation. Subjects pointed to three targets on a surface slightly above waist level. Two of the target locations were chosen so that a similar arm configuration relative to the trunk would be required for reaching to them, one of these targets requiring substantial trunk rotation, the other very little. Significant trunk rotation was necessary to reach the third target, but the arm's radial distance to the body remained virtually unchanged. Subjects reached at two speeds-a natural pace (slow) and rapidly (fast)-under normal lighting and in total darkness. Trunk angular velocity and finger velocity relative to the trunk were higher in the fast conditions but were not affected by the presence or absence of vision. Peak trunk velocity increased with increasing trunk rotation up to a maximum of 200 degrees /s. In slow movements, peak finger velocity relative to the trunk was smaller when trunk rotation was necessary to reach the targets. In fast movements, peak finger velocity was approximately 1.7 m/s for all targets. Finger trajectories were more curved when reaching movements involved substantial trunk rotation; however, the terminal errors and the maximal deviation of the trajectory from a straight line were comparable in slow and fast movements. This pattern indicates that the larger Coriolis, centripetal, and inertial interaction torques generated during rapid reaches were compensated by additional joint torques. Trajectory characteristics did not vary with the presence or absence of vision, indicating that visual feedback was unnecessary for anticipatory compensations. In all reaches involving trunk rotation, the finger movement generally occurred entirely during the trunk movement, indicating that the CNS did not minimize Coriolis forces incumbent on trunk rotation by sequencing the arm and trunk motions into a turn followed by a reach. A simplified model of the arm/trunk system revealed that additional interaction torques generated on the arm during voluntary turning and reaching were equivalent to < or =1.8 g (1 g = 9.81 m/s(2)) of external force at the elbow but did not degrade performance. In slow-rotation room studies involving reaching movements during passive rotation, Coriolis forces as small as 0.2 g greatly deflect movement trajectories and endpoints. We conclude that compensatory motor innervations are engaged in a predictive fashion to counteract impending self-generated interaction torques during voluntary reaching movements.

The Predictability of Extratropical Transition and of its Impact on the Downstream Flow

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-28

is predicted to reach a continent as an extratropical storm . Arguably the larger impact on predictability, however, occurs due to the above mentioned...Office of Naval Research Project The Predictability of Extratropical Transition and of its Impact on the Downstream Flow Award Number: N00014-06-1...12 0 76128 Karlsruhe 0 March 28, 2008 1 * 4 -d 60-( CONTENTS 3 Contents 1 Objectives 5 2 Scientific Importance 6 3 Extratropical Transition in

Application of Visible/Near-Infrared Spectroscopy in the Prediction of Azodicarbonamide in Wheat Flour.

PubMed

Che, Wenkai; Sun, Laijun; Zhang, Qian; Zhang, Dan; Ye, Dandan; Tan, Wenyi; Wang, Lekai; Dai, Changjun

2017-10-01

Azodicarbonamide is wildly used in flour industry as a flour gluten fortifier in many countries, but it was proved by some researches to be dangerous or unhealthy for people and not suitable to be added in flour. Applying a rapid, convenient, and noninvasive technique in food analytical procedure for the safety inspection has become an urgent need. This paper used Vis/NIR reflectance spectroscopy analysis technology, which is based on the physical property analysis to predict the concentration of azodicarbonamide in flour. Spectral data in range from 400 to 2498 nm were obtained by scanning 101 samples which were prepared using the stepwise dilution method. Furthermore, the combination of leave-one-out cross-validation and Mahalanobis distance method was used to eliminate abnormal spectral data, and correlation coefficient method was used to choose characteristic wavebands. Partial least squares, back propagation neural network, and radial basis function were used to establish prediction model separately. By comparing the prediction results between 3 models, the radial basis function model has the best prediction results whose correlation coefficients (R), root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP), and ratio of performance to deviation (RPD) reached 0.99996, 0.5467, and 116.5858, respectively. Azodicarbonamide has been banned or limited in many countries. This paper proposes a method to predict azodicarbonamide concentrate in wheat flour, which will be used for a rapid, convenient, and noninvasive detection device. © 2017 Institute of Food Technologists®.

Extinction rates in tumour public goods games.

PubMed

Gerlee, Philip; Altrock, Philipp M

2017-09-01

Cancer evolution and progression are shaped by cellular interactions and Darwinian selection. Evolutionary game theory incorporates both of these principles, and has been proposed as a framework to understand tumour cell population dynamics. A cornerstone of evolutionary dynamics is the replicator equation, which describes changes in the relative abundance of different cell types, and is able to predict evolutionary equilibria. Typically, the replicator equation focuses on differences in relative fitness. We here show that this framework might not be sufficient under all circumstances, as it neglects important aspects of population growth. Standard replicator dynamics might miss critical differences in the time it takes to reach an equilibrium, as this time also depends on cellular turnover in growing but bounded populations. As the system reaches a stable manifold, the time to reach equilibrium depends on cellular death and birth rates. These rates shape the time scales, in particular, in coevolutionary dynamics of growth factor producers and free-riders. Replicator dynamics might be an appropriate framework only when birth and death rates are of similar magnitude. Otherwise, population growth effects cannot be neglected when predicting the time to reach an equilibrium, and cell-type-specific rates have to be accounted for explicitly. © 2017 The Authors.

Utilizing Machine Learning and Automated Performance Metrics to Evaluate Robot-Assisted Radical Prostatectomy Performance and Predict Outcomes.

PubMed

Hung, Andrew J; Chen, Jian; Che, Zhengping; Nilanon, Tanachat; Jarc, Anthony; Titus, Micha; Oh, Paul J; Gill, Inderbir S; Liu, Yan

2018-05-01

Surgical performance is critical for clinical outcomes. We present a novel machine learning (ML) method of processing automated performance metrics (APMs) to evaluate surgical performance and predict clinical outcomes after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP). We trained three ML algorithms utilizing APMs directly from robot system data (training material) and hospital length of stay (LOS; training label) (≤2 days and >2 days) from 78 RARP cases, and selected the algorithm with the best performance. The selected algorithm categorized the cases as "Predicted as expected LOS (pExp-LOS)" and "Predicted as extended LOS (pExt-LOS)." We compared postoperative outcomes of the two groups (Kruskal-Wallis/Fisher's exact tests). The algorithm then predicted individual clinical outcomes, which we compared with actual outcomes (Spearman's correlation/Fisher's exact tests). Finally, we identified five most relevant APMs adopted by the algorithm during predicting. The "Random Forest-50" (RF-50) algorithm had the best performance, reaching 87.2% accuracy in predicting LOS (73 cases as "pExp-LOS" and 5 cases as "pExt-LOS"). The "pExp-LOS" cases outperformed the "pExt-LOS" cases in surgery time (3.7 hours vs 4.6 hours, p = 0.007), LOS (2 days vs 4 days, p = 0.02), and Foley duration (9 days vs 14 days, p = 0.02). Patient outcomes predicted by the algorithm had significant association with the "ground truth" in surgery time (p < 0.001, r = 0.73), LOS (p = 0.05, r = 0.52), and Foley duration (p < 0.001, r = 0.45). The five most relevant APMs, adopted by the RF-50 algorithm in predicting, were largely related to camera manipulation. To our knowledge, ours is the first study to show that APMs and ML algorithms may help assess surgical RARP performance and predict clinical outcomes. With further accrual of clinical data (oncologic and functional data), this process will become increasingly relevant and valuable in surgical assessment and training.

Prognosis in advanced lung cancer--A prospective study examining key clinicopathological factors.

PubMed

Simmons, Claribel P; Koinis, Filippos; Fallon, Marie T; Fearon, Kenneth C; Bowden, Jo; Solheim, Tora S; Gronberg, Bjorn Henning; McMillan, Donald C; Gioulbasanis, Ioannis; Laird, Barry J

2015-06-01

In patients with advanced incurable lung cancer deciding as to the most appropriate treatment (e.g., chemotherapy or supportive care only) is challenging. In such patients the TNM classification system has reached its ceiling therefore other factors are used to assess prognosis and as such, guide treatment. Performance status (PS), weight loss and inflammatory biomarkers (Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS)) predict survival in advanced lung cancer however these have not been compared. This study compares key prognostic factors in advanced lung cancer. Patients with newly diagnosed advanced lung cancer were recruited and demographics, weight loss, other prognostic factors (mGPS, PS) were collected. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods were used to compare these prognostic factors. 390 patients with advanced incurable lung cancer were recruited; 341 were male, median age was 66 years (IQR 59-73) and patients had stage IV non-small cell (n=288) (73.8%) or extensive stage small cell lung cancer (n=102) (26.2%). The median survival was 7.8 months. On multivariate analysis only performance status (HR 1.74 CI 1.50-2.02) and mGPS (HR 1.67, CI 1.40-2.00) predicted survival (p<0.001). Survival at 3 months ranged from 99% (ECOG 0-1) to 74% (ECOG 2) and using mGPS, from 99% (mGPS0) to 71% (mGPS2). In combination, survival ranged from 99% (mGPS 0, ECOG 0-1) to 33% (mGPS2, ECOG 3). Performance status and the mGPS are superior prognostic factors in advanced lung cancer. In combination, these improved survival prediction compared with either alone. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Rewards-driven control of robot arm by decoding EEG signals.

PubMed

Tanwani, Ajay Kumar; del R Millan, Jose; Billard, Aude

2014-01-01

Decoding the user intention from non-invasive EEG signals is a challenging problem. In this paper, we study the feasibility of predicting the goal for controlling the robot arm in self-paced reaching movements, i.e., spontaneous movements that do not require an external cue. Our proposed system continuously estimates the goal throughout a trial starting before the movement onset by online classification and generates optimal trajectories for driving the robot arm to the estimated goal. Experiments using EEG signals of one healthy subject (right arm) yield smooth reaching movements of the simulated 7 degrees of freedom KUKA robot arm in planar center-out reaching task with approximately 80% accuracy of reaching the actual goal.

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Fermi Paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomonides, Evan; Terzian, Yervant

2016-06-01

The Fermi paradox uses an appeal to the mediocrity principle to make it seem counterintuitive that humanity has not been contacted by extraterrestrial intelligence. A numerical, statistical analysis was conducted to determine whether this apparent loneliness is, in fact, unexpected. An inequality was derived to relate the frequency of life arising and developing technology on a suitable planet in the galaxy; the average length of time since the first broadcast of such a civilization; and a constant term. An analysis of the sphere reached thus far by human communication was also conducted, considering our local neighborhood and planets of particular interest. These analyses both conclude that the Fermi paradox is not, in fact, unexpected. By the mediocrity principle and numerical modeling, it is actually unlikely that the Earth would have been reached by extraterrestrial communication at this point. We predict that under 1% of the galaxy has been reached at all thus far, and we do not anticipate to be reached until approximately 50% of stars/planets have been reached. We offer a prediction that we should not expect this until at least 1,500 years in the future. Thus the Fermi paradox is not a shocking observation- or lack thereof- and humanity may very well be contacted within our species’ lifespan (we can begin to expect to be contacted 1,500 years in the future).

Self-Pressurization and Spray Cooling Simulations of the Multipurpose Hydrogen Test Bed (MHTB) Ground-Based Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kartuzova, O.; Kassemi, M.; Agui, J.; Moder, J.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a CFD (computational fluid dynamics) model for simulating the self-pressurization of a large scale liquid hydrogen storage tank. In this model, the kinetics-based Schrage equation is used to account for the evaporative and condensing interfacial mass flows. Laminar and turbulent approaches to modeling natural convection in the tank and heat and mass transfer at the interface are compared. The flow, temperature, and interfacial mass fluxes predicted by these two approaches during tank self-pressurization are compared against each other. The ullage pressure and vapor temperature evolutions are also compared against experimental data obtained from the MHTB (Multipuprpose Hydrogen Test Bed) self-pressurization experiment. A CFD model for cooling cryogenic storage tanks by spraying cold liquid in the ullage is also presented. The Euler- Lagrange approach is utilized for tracking the spray droplets and for modeling interaction between the droplets and the continuous phase (ullage). The spray model is coupled with the VOF (volume of fluid) model by performing particle tracking in the ullage, removing particles from the ullage when they reach the interface, and then adding their contributions to the liquid. Droplet ullage heat and mass transfer are modeled. The flow, temperature, and interfacial mass flux predicted by the model are presented. The ullage pressure is compared with experimental data obtained from the MHTB spray bar mixing experiment. The results of the models with only droplet/ullage heat transfer and with heat and mass transfer between the droplets and ullage are compared.

Assessment of a numerical model to reproduce event‐scale erosion and deposition distributions in a braided river

PubMed Central

Measures, R.; Hicks, D. M.; Brasington, J.

2016-01-01

Abstract Numerical morphological modeling of braided rivers, using a physics‐based approach, is increasingly used as a technique to explore controls on river pattern and, from an applied perspective, to simulate the impact of channel modifications. This paper assesses a depth‐averaged nonuniform sediment model (Delft3D) to predict the morphodynamics of a 2.5 km long reach of the braided Rees River, New Zealand, during a single high‐flow event. Evaluation of model performance primarily focused upon using high‐resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of Difference, derived from a fusion of terrestrial laser scanning and optical empirical bathymetric mapping, to compare observed and predicted patterns of erosion and deposition and reach‐scale sediment budgets. For the calibrated model, this was supplemented with planform metrics (e.g., braiding intensity). Extensive sensitivity analysis of model functions and parameters was executed, including consideration of numerical scheme for bed load component calculations, hydraulics, bed composition, bed load transport and bed slope effects, bank erosion, and frequency of calculations. Total predicted volumes of erosion and deposition corresponded well to those observed. The difference between predicted and observed volumes of erosion was less than the factor of two that characterizes the accuracy of the Gaeuman et al. bed load transport formula. Grain size distributions were best represented using two φ intervals. For unsteady flows, results were sensitive to the morphological time scale factor. The approach of comparing observed and predicted morphological sediment budgets shows the value of using natural experiment data sets for model testing. Sensitivity results are transferable to guide Delft3D applications to other rivers. PMID:27708477

An Open-Access Modeled Passenger Flow Matrix for the Global Air Network in 2010

PubMed Central

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J.; Fik, Timothy J.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data. PMID:23691194

Improving coeliac disease risk prediction by testing non-HLA variants additional to HLA variants.

PubMed

Romanos, Jihane; Rosén, Anna; Kumar, Vinod; Trynka, Gosia; Franke, Lude; Szperl, Agata; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; van Diemen, Cleo C; Kanninga, Roan; Jankipersadsing, Soesma A; Steck, Andrea; Eisenbarth, Georges; van Heel, David A; Cukrowska, Bozena; Bruno, Valentina; Mazzilli, Maria Cristina; Núñez, Concepcion; Bilbao, Jose Ramon; Mearin, M Luisa; Barisani, Donatella; Rewers, Marian; Norris, Jill M; Ivarsson, Anneli; Boezen, H Marieke; Liu, Edwin; Wijmenga, Cisca

2014-03-01

The majority of coeliac disease (CD) patients are not being properly diagnosed and therefore remain untreated, leading to a greater risk of developing CD-associated complications. The major genetic risk heterodimer, HLA-DQ2 and DQ8, is already used clinically to help exclude disease. However, approximately 40% of the population carry these alleles and the majority never develop CD. We explored whether CD risk prediction can be improved by adding non-HLA-susceptible variants to common HLA testing. We developed an average weighted genetic risk score with 10, 26 and 57 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in 2675 cases and 2815 controls and assessed the improvement in risk prediction provided by the non-HLA SNP. Moreover, we assessed the transferability of the genetic risk model with 26 non-HLA variants to a nested case-control population (n=1709) and a prospective cohort (n=1245) and then tested how well this model predicted CD outcome for 985 independent individuals. Adding 57 non-HLA variants to HLA testing showed a statistically significant improvement compared to scores from models based on HLA only, HLA plus 10 SNP and HLA plus 26 SNP. With 57 non-HLA variants, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve reached 0.854 compared to 0.823 for HLA only, and 11.1% of individuals were reclassified to a more accurate risk group. We show that the risk model with HLA plus 26 SNP is useful in independent populations. Predicting risk with 57 additional non-HLA variants improved the identification of potential CD patients. This demonstrates a possible role for combined HLA and non-HLA genetic testing in diagnostic work for CD.

Fatigue delamination onset prediction in tapered composite laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murri, Gretchen Bostaph; Salpekar, Satish A.; Obrien, T. Kevin

1989-01-01

Tapered (0 deg) laminates of S2/CE9000 and S2/SP250 glass/epoxies, and IM6/1827I graphite/epoxy were tested in cyclic tension. The specimens usually showed some initial stable delaminations in the tapered region, but these did not affect the stiffness of the specimens, and loading was continued until the specimens either delaminated unstably, or reached 10(exp 6) to 2 x 10(exp 7) million cycles with no unstable delamination. The final unstable delamination originated at the junction of the thin and tapered regions. A finite-element model was developed for the tapered laminate with and without the initial stable delaminations observed in the tests. The analysis showed that for both cases the most likely place for an opening (Mode 1) delamination to originate is at the junction of the taper and thin regions. For each material type, the models were used to calculate the strain energy release rate, G, associated with delaminations originating at that junction and growing either into the thin region or tapered region. For the materials tested, cyclic G(sub Imax) values from DCB tests were used with the maximum strain energy release rates calculated from the finite-element analysis to predict the onset of unstable delamination at the junction as a function of fatigue cycles. The predictions were compared to experimental values of maximum cyclic load as a function of cycles to unstable delamination from fatigue tests in tapered laminates. For the IM6/1827I and S2/SP250 laminates, the predictions agreed very well with the test data. Predicted values for the S2/CE9000 were conservative compared to the test data.

An open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for the global air network in 2010.

PubMed

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J; Fik, Timothy J; Tatem, Andrew J

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data.

Physical controls and predictability of stream hyporheic flow evaluated with a multiscale model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stonedahl, Susa H.; Harvey, Judson W.; Detty, Joel; Aubeneau, Antoine; Packman, Aaron I.

2012-01-01

Improved predictions of hyporheic exchange based on easily measured physical variables are needed to improve assessment of solute transport and reaction processes in watersheds. Here we compare physically based model predictions for an Indiana stream with stream tracer results interpreted using the Transient Storage Model (TSM). We parameterized the physically based, Multiscale Model (MSM) of stream-groundwater interactions with measured stream planform and discharge, stream velocity, streambed hydraulic conductivity and porosity, and topography of the streambed at distinct spatial scales (i.e., ripple, bar, and reach scales). We predicted hyporheic exchange fluxes and hyporheic residence times using the MSM. A Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) model was used to convert the MSM output into predictions of in stream solute transport, which we compared with field observations and TSM parameters obtained by fitting solute transport data. MSM simulations indicated that surface-subsurface exchange through smaller topographic features such as ripples was much faster than exchange through larger topographic features such as bars. However, hyporheic exchange varies nonlinearly with groundwater discharge owing to interactions between flows induced at different topographic scales. MSM simulations showed that groundwater discharge significantly decreased both the volume of water entering the subsurface and the time it spent in the subsurface. The MSM also characterized longer timescales of exchange than were observed by the tracer-injection approach. The tracer data, and corresponding TSM fits, were limited by tracer measurement sensitivity and uncertainty in estimates of background tracer concentrations. Our results indicate that rates and patterns of hyporheic exchange are strongly influenced by a continuum of surface-subsurface hydrologic interactions over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales rather than discrete processes.

Projected effects of Climate-change-induced flow alterations on stream macroinvertebrate abundances.

PubMed

Kakouei, Karan; Kiesel, Jens; Domisch, Sami; Irving, Katie S; Jähnig, Sonja C; Kail, Jochem

2018-03-01

Global change has the potential to affect river flow conditions which are fundamental determinants of physical habitats. Predictions of the effects of flow alterations on aquatic biota have mostly been assessed based on species ecological traits (e.g., current preferences), which are difficult to link to quantitative discharge data. Alternatively, we used empirically derived predictive relationships for species' response to flow to assess the effect of flow alterations due to climate change in two contrasting central European river catchments. Predictive relationships were set up for 294 individual species based on (1) abundance data from 223 sampling sites in the Kinzig lower-mountainous catchment and 67 sites in the Treene lowland catchment, and (2) flow conditions at these sites described by five flow metrics quantifying the duration, frequency, magnitude, timing and rate of flow events using present-day gauging data. Species' abundances were predicted for three periods: (1) baseline (1998-2017), (2) horizon 2050 (2046-2065) and (3) horizon 2090 (2080-2099) based on these empirical relationships and using high-resolution modeled discharge data for the present and future climate conditions. We compared the differences in predicted abundances among periods for individual species at each site, where the percent change served as a proxy to assess the potential species responses to flow alterations. Climate change was predicted to most strongly affect the low-flow conditions, leading to decreased abundances of species up to -42%. Finally combining the response of all species over all metrics indicated increasing overall species assemblage responses in 98% of the studied river reaches in both projected horizons and were significantly larger in the lower-mountainous Kinzig compared to the lowland Treene catchment. Such quantitative analyses of freshwater taxa responses to flow alterations provide valuable tools for predicting potential climate-change impacts on species abundances and can be applied to any stressor, species, or region.

Food Nanotechnology - Food Packaging Applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Astonishing growth in the market for nanofoods is predicted in the future, from the current market of $2.6 billion to $20.4 billion in 2010. The market for nanotechnology in food packaging alone is expected to reach $360 million in 2008. In large part, the impetus for this predicted growth is the ...

Development and validation of a mathematical model for growth of pathogens in cut melons.

PubMed

Li, Di; Friedrich, Loretta M; Danyluk, Michelle D; Harris, Linda J; Schaffner, Donald W

2013-06-01

Many outbreaks of foodborne illness associated with the consumption of fresh-cut melons have been reported. The objective of our research was to develop a mathematical model that predicts the growth rate of Salmonella on fresh-cut cantaloupe over a range of storage temperatures and to validate that model by using Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157:H7 on cantaloupe, honeydew, and watermelon, using both new data and data from the published studies. The growth of Salmonella on honeydew and watermelon and E. coli O157:H7 on cantaloupe, honeydew, and watermelon was monitored at temperatures of 4 to 25°C. The Ratkowsky (or square-root model) was used to describe Salmonella growth on cantaloupe as a function of storage temperature. Our results show that the levels of Salmonella on fresh-cut cantaloupe with an initial load of 3 log CFU/g can reach over 7 log CFU/g at 25°C within 24 h. No growth was observed at 4°C. A linear correlation was observed between the square root of Salmonella growth rate and temperature, such that √growth rate = 0.026 × (T - 5.613), R(2) = 0.9779. The model was generally suitable for predicting the growth of both Salmonella and E. coli O157:H7 on cantaloupe, honeydew, and watermelon, for both new data and data from the published literature. When compared with existing models for growth of Salmonella, the new model predicts a theoretic minimum growth temperature similar to the ComBase Predictive Models and Pathogen Modeling Program models but lower than other food-specific models. The ComBase Prediction Models results are very similar to the model developed in this study. Our research confirms that Salmonella can grow quickly and reach high concentrations when cut cantaloupe is stored at ambient temperatures, without visual signs of spoilage. Our model provides a fast and cost-effective method to estimate the effects of storage temperature on fresh-cut melon safety and could also be used in subsequent quantitative microbial risk assessments.

LISA verification binaries with updated distances from Gaia Data Release 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kupfer, T.; Korol, V.; Shah, S.; Nelemans, G.; Marsh, T. R.; Ramsay, G.; Groot, P. J.; Steeghs, D. T. H.; Rossi, E. M.

2018-06-01

Ultracompact binaries with orbital periods less than a few hours will dominate the gravitational wave signal in the mHz regime. Until recently, 10 systems were expected have a predicted gravitational wave signal strong enough to be detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), the so-called `verification binaries'. System parameters, including distances, are needed to provide an accurate prediction of the expected gravitational wave strength to be measured by LISA. Using parallaxes from Gaia Data Release 2 we calculate signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) for ≈50 verification binary candidates. We find that 11 binaries reach a SNR≥20, two further binaries reaching a SNR≥5 and three more systems are expected to have a SNR≈5 after four years integration with LISA. For these 16 systems we present predictions of the gravitational wave amplitude (A) and parameter uncertainties from Fisher information matrix on the amplitude (A) and inclination (ι).

The burial of headwater streams in drainage pipes reduces in-stream nitrate retention: results from two US metropolitan areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaulieu, J. J.; Mayer, P. M.; Kaushal, S.; Pennino, M. J.; Arango, C. P.; Balz, D. A.; Fritz, K. M.; Golden, H. E.; Knightes, C. D.

2012-12-01

Nitrogen (N) retention in stream networks is an important ecosystem service that may be affected by the widespread burial of headwater streams in urban watersheds. Stream burial occurs when segments of a channel are encased in drainage pipe and buried beneath the land surface to facilitate above ground development or stormwater runoff. We predicted that burial suppresses the capacity of streams to retain and transform nitrate, the dominate form of bioavailable N in urban streams, by eliminating primary production, reducing respiration rates, and decreasing water residence time. We tested these predictions by measuring whole-stream nitrate (NO3-) removal rates using 15NO3- isotope tracer releases in reaches that were buried and open to the sunlight in three streams in Cincinnati, Ohio and three streams in Baltimore, Maryland during four seasons. Nitrate uptake lengths in buried reaches (range: 560 - 43,650 m) were 2-98 times greater than open reaches exposed to daylight (range: 85 - 7195 m), indicating that buried reaches were substantially less effective at retaining NO3- than open reaches. Nitrate retention in buried reaches was suppressed by a combination of hydrological and biological processes. High water velocities in buried reaches (buried= 5.8 m/s, open=1.48 m/s) rapidly exported NO3- from the channel, reducing the potential for in-stream NO3- retention. Uptake lengths in the buried reaches were lengthened further by low in-stream biological NO3- demand, as indicated by NO3- uptake velocities 16-fold lower than that of the open reaches. Similarly, buried reaches had lower ecosystem respiration rates than open reaches (buried=1.5g O2/m2/hr, open=4.5g O2/m2/hr), likely due to lower organic matter standing stocks (buried=12 gAFMD/m2, open=48 gAFDM/m2). Biological activity in the buried reaches was further suppressed by the absence of light which precluded photosynthetic activity and the associated assimilative N demand. Overall, our results demonstrate that the combined effects of elevated water velocity and reduced biological activity as a result of stream burial inhibits NO3- retention, exacerbating the export of excess N to downstream water bodies. Future work will scale these results to a river network to assess the cumulative effect of stream burial on watershed NO3- export.

From particle condensation to polymer aggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janke, Wolfhard; Zierenberg, Johannes

2018-01-01

We draw an analogy between droplet formation in dilute particle and polymer systems. Our arguments are based on finite-size scaling results from studies of a two-dimensional lattice gas to three-dimensional bead-spring polymers. To set the results in perspective, we compare with in part rigorous theoretical scaling laws for canonical condensation in a supersaturated gas at fixed temperature, and derive corresponding scaling predictions for an undercooled gas at fixed density. The latter allows one to efficiently employ parallel multicanonical simulations and to reach previously not accessible scaling regimes. While the asymptotic scaling can not be observed for the comparably small polymer system sizes, they demonstrate an intermediate scaling regime also observable for particle condensation. Altogether, our extensive results from computer simulations provide clear evidence for the close analogy between particle condensation and polymer aggregation in dilute systems.

Different Gestalt Processing for Different Actions? Comparing Object-Directed Reaching and Looking Time Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vishton, P.M.; Ware, E.A.; Badger, A.N.

2005-01-01

Six experiments compared the Gestalt processing that mediates infant reaching and looking behaviors. Experiment 1 demonstrated that the positioning and timing of 8- and 9-month-olds' reaching was influenced by remembered relative motion. Experiment 2 suggested that a visible gap, without this relative motion, was not sufficient to produce these…

Seasonal prediction of hurricane activity reaching the coast of the United States.

PubMed

Saunders, Mark A; Lea, Adam S

2005-04-21

Much of the property damage from natural hazards in the United States is caused by landfalling hurricanes--strong tropical cyclones that reach the coast. For the southeastern Atlantic coast of the US, a statistical method for forecasting the occurrence of landfalling hurricanes for the season ahead has been reported, but the physical mechanisms linking the predictor variables to the frequency of hurricanes remain unclear. Here we present a statistical model that uses July wind anomalies between 1950 and 2003 to predict with significant and useful skill the wind energy of US landfalling hurricanes for the following main hurricane season (August to October). We have identified six regions over North America and over the east Pacific and North Atlantic oceans where July wind anomalies, averaged between heights of 925 and 400 mbar, exhibit a stationary and significant link to the energy of landfalling hurricanes during the subsequent hurricane season. The wind anomalies in these regions are indicative of atmospheric circulation patterns that either favour or hinder evolving hurricanes from reaching US shores.

Discrimination of benign and malignant lymph nodes at 7.0T compared to 1.5T magnetic resonance imaging using ultrasmall particles of iron oxide: a feasibility preclinical study.

PubMed

Kinner, Sonja; Maderwald, Stefan; Albert, Juliane; Parohl, Nina; Corot, Claire; Robert, Philippe; Baba, Hideo A; Barkhausen, Jörg

2013-12-01

To investigate the feasibility and performance of 7T magnetic resonance imaging compared to 1.5T imaging to discriminate benign (normal and inflammatory changed) from tumor-bearing lymph nodes in rabbits using ultrasmall particles of iron oxide (USPIO)-based contrast agents. Six New Zealand White rabbits were inoculated with either complete Freund's adjuvant cell suspension (n = 3) to induce reactively enlarged lymph nodes or with VX2 tumor cells to produce metastatic lymph nodes (n = 3). Image acquisition was performed before and 24 hours after bolus injection of an USPIO contrast agent at 1.5T and afterward at 7T using T1-weighted and T2*-weighted sequences. Sensitivities, specificities, and negative and positive predictive values for the detection of lymph node metastases were calculated for both field strengths with histopathology serving as reference standard. Sizes of lymph nodes with no, inflammatory, and malignant changes were compared using a Mann-Whitney U-test. All 24 lymph nodes were detected at 1.5T as well as at 7T. At 1.5T, sensitivity amounted to 0.67, while specificity reached a value of 1. At the higher field strength (7T), imaging was able to reach sensitivity and specificity values of 1. No statistical differences were detected concerning lymph node sizes. Magnetic resonance lymphography with USPIO contrast agents allows for differentiation of normal and reactively enlarged lymph nodes compared to metastatic nodes. First experiments at 7T show promising results compared to 1.5T, which have to be evaluated in further trials. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Analysis of the High-Frequency Content in Human QRS Complexes by the Continuous Wavelet Transform: An Automatized Analysis for the Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death.

PubMed

García Iglesias, Daniel; Roqueñi Gutiérrez, Nieves; De Cos, Francisco Javier; Calvo, David

2018-02-12

Fragmentation and delayed potentials in the QRS signal of patients have been postulated as risk markers for Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD). The analysis of the high-frequency spectral content may be useful for quantification. Forty-two consecutive patients with prior history of SCD or malignant arrhythmias (patients) where compared with 120 healthy individuals (controls). The QRS complexes were extracted with a modified Pan-Tompkins algorithm and processed with the Continuous Wavelet Transform to analyze the high-frequency content (85-130 Hz). Overall, the power of the high-frequency content was higher in patients compared with controls (170.9 vs. 47.3 10³nV²Hz -1 ; p = 0.007), with a prolonged time to reach the maximal power (68.9 vs. 64.8 ms; p = 0.002). An analysis of the signal intensity (instantaneous average of cumulative power), revealed a distinct function between patients and controls. The total intensity was higher in patients compared with controls (137.1 vs. 39 10³nV²Hz -1 s -1 ; p = 0.001) and the time to reach the maximal intensity was also prolonged (88.7 vs. 82.1 ms; p < 0.001). The high-frequency content of the QRS complexes was distinct between patients at risk of SCD and healthy controls. The wavelet transform is an efficient tool for spectral analysis of the QRS complexes that may contribute to stratification of risk.

Simulation of fatigue crack growth under large scale yielding conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweizer, Christoph; Seifert, Thomas; Riedel, Hermann

2010-07-01

A simple mechanism based model for fatigue crack growth assumes a linear correlation between the cyclic crack-tip opening displacement (ΔCTOD) and the crack growth increment (da/dN). The objective of this work is to compare analytical estimates of ΔCTOD with results of numerical calculations under large scale yielding conditions and to verify the physical basis of the model by comparing the predicted and the measured evolution of the crack length in a 10%-chromium-steel. The material is described by a rate independent cyclic plasticity model with power-law hardening and Masing behavior. During the tension-going part of the cycle, nodes at the crack-tip are released such that the crack growth increment corresponds approximately to the crack-tip opening. The finite element analysis performed in ABAQUS is continued for so many cycles until a stabilized value of ΔCTOD is reached. The analytical model contains an interpolation formula for the J-integral, which is generalized to account for cyclic loading and crack closure. Both simulated and estimated ΔCTOD are reasonably consistent. The predicted crack length evolution is found to be in good agreement with the behavior of microcracks observed in a 10%-chromium steel.

Comparison of Three Risk Scores to Predict Outcomes of Severe Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Camus, Marine; Jensen, Dennis M; Ohning, Gordon V; Kovacs, Thomas O; Jutabha, Rome; Ghassemi, Kevin A; Machicado, Gustavo A; Dulai, Gareth S; Jensen, Mary E; Gornbein, Jeffrey A

2016-01-01

Improved medical decisions by using a score at the initial patient triage level may lead to improvements in patient management, outcomes, and resource utilization. There is no validated score for management of lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) unlike for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of our study was to compare the accuracies of 3 different prognostic scores [Center for Ulcer Research and Education Hemostasis prognosis score, Charlson index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score] for the prediction of 30-day rebleeding, surgery, and death in severe LGIB. Data on consecutive patients hospitalized with severe gastrointestinal bleeding from January 2006 to October 2011 in our 2 tertiary academic referral centers were prospectively collected. Sensitivities, specificities, accuracies, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve were computed for 3 scores for predictions of rebleeding, surgery, and mortality at 30 days. Two hundred thirty-five consecutive patients with LGIB were included between 2006 and 2011. Twenty-three percent of patients rebled, 6% had surgery, and 7.7% of patients died. The accuracies of each score never reached 70% for predicting rebleeding or surgery in either. The ASA score had a highest accuracy for predicting mortality within 30 days (83.5%), whereas the Center for Ulcer Research and Education Hemostasis prognosis score and the Charlson index both had accuracies <75% for the prediction of death within 30 days. ASA score could be useful to predict death within 30 days. However, a new score is still warranted to predict all 30 days outcomes (rebleeding, surgery, and death) in LGIB.

Subjective quality of life in outpatients with schizophrenia in Hong Kong and Beijing: relationship to socio-demographic and clinical factors.

PubMed

Xiang, Yu-Tao; Weng, Yong-Zhen; Leung, Chi-Ming; Tang, Wai-Kwong; Ungvari, Gabor S

2008-02-01

This study compared the subjective quality of life (SQOL) in schizophrenia patients living with their families in Hong Kong (HK) and Beijing (BJ) and explored the relationship between SQOL and basic socio-demographic and clinical factors. Two hundred and sixty-four clinically stable outpatients with schizophrenia were randomly selected in HK and 258 counterparts matched according to age, sex, age at onset, and length of illness in BJ. SQOL and psychiatric status were assessed with standard rating instruments. There was no significant difference in any of SQOL domains between the two cohorts after controlling for potentially confounding variables. Positive, depressive and anxiety symptoms and drug-induced extrapyramidal side effects (EPS) were all significantly correlated with SQOL. Multiple regression analysis revealed that only depressive symptoms predicted all SQOL domains in both groups. Having removed depressive symptoms from the model, positive symptoms predicted all domains, anxiety predicted all but social domains, use of benzodiazepines (BZD) predicted all but physical domains, EPS predicted physical domain, and history of suicide predicted social domain in HK; anxiety predicted all domains, positive symptoms predicted all but physical domains, EPS, use of BZD and history of suicide all predicted physical domains, and length of illness predicted environmental domain in BJ. Despite considerable differences between the two sites in terms of health care delivery and the economic conditions of the subjects, SQOL did not differ between HK and BJ. The conclusion is in line with previous studies that suggested that patients' SQOL was independent of their living standard as long as it reached a certain minimum level. SQOL was more strongly related to the severity of depressive symptoms and had weak association with socio-demographic factors.

AcconPred: Predicting Solvent Accessibility and Contact Number Simultaneously by a Multitask Learning Framework under the Conditional Neural Fields Model.

PubMed

Ma, Jianzhu; Wang, Sheng

2015-01-01

The solvent accessibility of protein residues is one of the driving forces of protein folding, while the contact number of protein residues limits the possibilities of protein conformations. The de novo prediction of these properties from protein sequence is important for the study of protein structure and function. Although these two properties are certainly related with each other, it is challenging to exploit this dependency for the prediction. We present a method AcconPred for predicting solvent accessibility and contact number simultaneously, which is based on a shared weight multitask learning framework under the CNF (conditional neural fields) model. The multitask learning framework on a collection of related tasks provides more accurate prediction than the framework trained only on a single task. The CNF method not only models the complex relationship between the input features and the predicted labels, but also exploits the interdependency among adjacent labels. Trained on 5729 monomeric soluble globular protein datasets, AcconPred could reach 0.68 three-state accuracy for solvent accessibility and 0.75 correlation for contact number. Tested on the 105 CASP11 domain datasets for solvent accessibility, AcconPred could reach 0.64 accuracy, which outperforms existing methods.

AcconPred: Predicting Solvent Accessibility and Contact Number Simultaneously by a Multitask Learning Framework under the Conditional Neural Fields Model

PubMed Central

Ma, Jianzhu; Wang, Sheng

2015-01-01

Motivation. The solvent accessibility of protein residues is one of the driving forces of protein folding, while the contact number of protein residues limits the possibilities of protein conformations. The de novo prediction of these properties from protein sequence is important for the study of protein structure and function. Although these two properties are certainly related with each other, it is challenging to exploit this dependency for the prediction. Method. We present a method AcconPred for predicting solvent accessibility and contact number simultaneously, which is based on a shared weight multitask learning framework under the CNF (conditional neural fields) model. The multitask learning framework on a collection of related tasks provides more accurate prediction than the framework trained only on a single task. The CNF method not only models the complex relationship between the input features and the predicted labels, but also exploits the interdependency among adjacent labels. Results. Trained on 5729 monomeric soluble globular protein datasets, AcconPred could reach 0.68 three-state accuracy for solvent accessibility and 0.75 correlation for contact number. Tested on the 105 CASP11 domain datasets for solvent accessibility, AcconPred could reach 0.64 accuracy, which outperforms existing methods. PMID:26339631

Estimation of distal arm joint angles from EMG and shoulder orientation for transhumeral prostheses.

PubMed

Akhtar, Aadeel; Aghasadeghi, Navid; Hargrove, Levi; Bretl, Timothy

2017-08-01

In this paper, we quantify the extent to which shoulder orientation, upper-arm electromyography (EMG), and forearm EMG are predictors of distal arm joint angles during reaching in eight subjects without disability as well as three subjects with a unilateral transhumeral amputation and targeted reinnervation. Prior studies have shown that shoulder orientation and upper-arm EMG, taken separately, are predictors of both elbow flexion/extension and forearm pronation/supination. We show that, for eight subjects without disability, shoulder orientation and upper-arm EMG together are a significantly better predictor of both elbow flexion/extension during unilateral (R 2 =0.72) and mirrored bilateral (R 2 =0.72) reaches and of forearm pronation/supination during unilateral (R 2 =0.77) and mirrored bilateral (R 2 =0.70) reaches. We also show that adding forearm EMG further improves the prediction of forearm pronation/supination during unilateral (R 2 =0.82) and mirrored bilateral (R 2 =0.75) reaches. In principle, these results provide the basis for choosing inputs for control of transhumeral prostheses, both by subjects with targeted motor reinnervation (when forearm EMG is available) and by subjects without target motor reinnervation (when forearm EMG is not available). In particular, we confirm that shoulder orientation and upper-arm EMG together best predict elbow flexion/extension (R 2 =0.72) for three subjects with unilateral transhumeral amputations and targeted motor reinnervation. However, shoulder orientation alone best predicts forearm pronation/supination (R 2 =0.88) for these subjects, a contradictory result that merits further study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive Information: Status or Alert Information?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.; Bruneau, Daniel; Press, Hayes N.

2008-01-01

Previous research investigating the efficacy of predictive information for detecting and diagnosing aircraft system failures found that subjects like to have predictive information concerning when a parameter would reach an alert range. This research focused on where the predictive information should be located, whether the information should be more closely associated with the parameter information or with the alert information. Each subject saw 3 forms of predictive information: (1) none, (2) a predictive alert message, and (3) predictive information on the status display. Generally, subjects performed better and preferred to have predictive information available although the difference between status and alert predictive information was minimal. Overall, for detection and recalling what happened, status predictive information is best; however for diagnosis, alert predictive information holds a slight edge.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

Heat and mass transfer analysis for paraffin/nitrous oxide burning rate in hybrid propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Basat (Sisi), Shani; Gany, Alon

2016-03-01

This research presents a physical-mathematical model for the combustion of liquefying fuels in hybrid combustors, accounting for blowing effect on the heat transfer. A particular attention is given to a paraffin/nitrous oxide hybrid system. The use of a paraffin fuel in hybrid propulsion has been considered because of its much higher regression rate enabling significantly higher thrust compared to that of common polymeric fuels. The model predicts the overall regression rate (melting rate) of the fuel and the different mechanisms involved, including evaporation, entrainment of droplets of molten material, and mass loss due to melt flow on the condensed fuel surface. Prediction of the thickness and velocity of the liquid (melt) layer formed at the surface during combustion was done as well. Applying the model for an oxidizer mass flux of 45 kg/(s m2) as an example representing experimental range, it was found that 21% of the molten liquid undergoes evaporation, 30% enters the gas flow by the entrainment mechanism, and 49% reaches the end of the combustion chamber as a flowing liquid layer. When increasing the oxidizer mass flux in the port, the effect of entrainment increases while that of the flowing liquid layer along the surface shows a relatively lower contribution. Yet, the latter is predicted to have a significant contribution to the overall mass loss. In practical applications it may cause reduced combustion efficiency and should be taken into account in the motor design, e.g., by reinforcing the paraffin fuel with different additives. The model predictions have been compared to experimental results revealing good agreement.

[Comparative study between fast and slow induction of propofol given by target-controlled infusion: expected propofol concentration at the effect site. Randomized controlled trial].

PubMed

Simoni, Ricardo Francisco; Miziara, Luiz Eduardo de Paula Gomes; Esteves, Luis Otávio; Silva, Diógenes de Oliveira; Ribeiro, Cristina Alves; Smith, Mariana Oki; Paula, Leonardo Ferreira de; Cangiani, Luis Henrique

2015-01-01

studies have shown that rate of propofol infusion may influence the predicted propofol concentration at the effect site (Es). The aim of this study was to evaluate the Es predicted by the Marsh pharmacokinetic model (ke0 0.26min(-1)) in loss of consciousness during fast or slow induction. the study included 28 patients randomly divided into two equal groups. In slow induction group (S), target-controlled infusion (TCI) of propofol with plasma, Marsh pharmacokinetic model (ke0 0.26min(-1)) with target concentration (Tc) at 2.0-μg.mL(-1) were administered. When the predicted propofol concentration at the effect site (Es) reached half of Es value, Es was increased to previous Es + 1μg.mL(-1), successively, until loss of consciousness. In rapid induction group (R), patients were induced with TCI of propofol with plasma (6.0μg.ml(-1)) at Es, and waited until loss of consciousness. in rapid induction group, Tc for loss of consciousness was significantly lower compared to slow induction group (1.67±0.76 and 2.50±0.56μg.mL(-1), respectively, p=0.004). the predicted propofol concentration at the effect site for loss of consciousness is different for rapid induction and slow induction, even with the same pharmacokinetic model of propofol and the same balance constant between plasma and effect site. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Variables influencing the presence of subyearling fall Chinook salmon in shoreline habitats of the Hanford Reach, Columbia River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiffan, K.F.; Clark, L.O.; Garland, R.D.; Rondorf, D.W.

2006-01-01

Little information currently exists on habitat use by subyearling fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha rearing in large, main-stem habitats. We collected habitat use information on subyearlings in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River during May 1994 and April-May 1995 using point abundance electrofishing. We analyzed measures of physical habitat using logistic regression to predict fish presence and absence in shoreline habitats. The difference between water temperature at the point of sampling and in the main river channel was the most important variable for predicting the presence and absence of subyearlings. Mean water velocities of 45 cm/s or less and habitats with low lateral bank slopes were also associated with a greater likelihood of subyearling presence. Intermediate-sized gravel and cobble substrates were significant predictors of fish presence, but small (<32-mm) and boulder-sized (>256-mm) substrates were not. Our rearing model was accurate at predicting fish presence and absence using jackknifing (80% correct) and classification of observations from an independent data set (76% correct). The habitat requirements of fall Chinook salmon in the Hanford Reach are similar to those reported for juvenile Chinook salmon in smaller systems but are met in functionally different ways in a large river.

Quantifying habitat benefits of channel reconfigurations on a highly regulated river system, Lower Missouri River, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, Susannah O.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Elliott, Caroline M.

2017-01-01

We present a quantitative analysis of habitat availability in a highly regulated lowland river, comparing a restored reach with two reference reaches: an un-restored, channelized reach, and a least-altered reach. We evaluate the effects of channel modifications in terms of distributions of depth and velocity as well as distributions and availability of habitats thought to be supportive of an endangered fish, the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). It has been hypothesized that hydraulic conditions that support food production and foraging may limit growth and survival of juvenile pallid sturgeon. To evaluate conditions that support these habitats, we constructed two-dimensional hydrodynamic models for the three study reaches, two located in the Lower Missouri River (channelized and restored reaches) and one in the Yellowstone River (least-altered reach). Comparability among the reaches was improved by scaling by bankfull discharge and bankfull channel area. The analysis shows that construction of side-channel chutes and increased floodplain connectivity increase the availability of foraging habitat, resulting in a system that is more similar to the reference reach on the Yellowstone River. The availability of food-producing habitat is low in all reaches at flows less than bankfull, but the two reaches in the Lower Missouri River – channelized and restored – display a threshold-like response as flows overtop channel banks, reflecting the persistent effects of channelization on hydraulics in the main channel. These high lateral gradients result in punctuated ecological events corresponding to flows in excess of bankfull discharge. This threshold effect in the restored reach remains distinct from that of the least-altered reference reach, where hydraulic changes are less abrupt and overbank flows more gradually inundate the adjacent floodplain. The habitat curves observed in the reference reach on the Yellowstone River may not be attainable within the channelized system on the Missouri River, but the documented hydraulic patterns can be used to inform ongoing channel modifications. Although scaling to bankfull dimensions and discharges provides a basis for comparing the three reaches, implementation of the reference reach concept was complicated by differences in flow-frequency distributions among sites. In particular, habitat availability in the least-altered Yellowstone River reach is affected by increased frequency of low-flow events (less than 0.5 times bankfull flow) and moderately high-flow events (greater than 1.5 times bankfull flow) compared to downstream reaches on the Lower Missouri River.

A randomized clinical trial of therapeutic hypothermia mode during transport for neonatal encephalopathy.

PubMed

Akula, Vishnu Priya; Joe, Priscilla; Thusu, Kajori; Davis, Alexis S; Tamaresis, John S; Kim, Sunhwa; Shimotake, Thomas K; Butler, Stephen; Honold, Jose; Kuzniewicz, Michael; DeSandre, Glenn; Bennett, Mihoko; Gould, Jeffrey; Wallenstein, Matthew B; Van Meurs, Krisa

2015-04-01

To determine if temperature regulation is improved during neonatal transport using a servo-regulated cooling device when compared with standard practice. We performed a multicenter, randomized, nonmasked clinical trial in newborns with neonatal encephalopathy cooled during transport to 9 neonatal intensive care units in California. Newborns who met institutional criteria for therapeutic hypothermia were randomly assigned to receive cooling according to usual center practices vs device servo-regulated cooling. The primary outcome was the percentage of temperatures in target range (33°-34°C) during transport. Secondary outcomes included percentage of newborns reaching target temperature any time during transport, time to target temperature, and percentage of newborns in target range 1 hour after cooling initiation. One hundred newborns were enrolled: 49 to control arm and 51 to device arm. Baseline demographics did not differ with the exception of cord pH. For each subject, the percentage of temperatures in the target range was calculated. Infants cooled using the device had a higher percentage of temperatures in target range compared with control infants (median 73% [IQR 17-88] vs 0% [IQR 0-52], P < .001). More subjects reached target temperature during transport using the servo-regulated device (80% vs 49%, P <.001), and in a shorter time period (44 ± 31 minutes vs 63 ± 37 minutes, P = .04). Device-cooled infants reached target temperature by 1 hour with greater frequency than control infants (71% vs 20%, P < .001). Cooling using a servo-regulated device provides more predictable temperature management during neonatal transport than does usual care for outborn newborns with neonatal encephalopathy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining transcription factor binding affinities with open-chromatin data for accurate gene expression prediction

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Florian; Gasparoni, Nina; Gasparoni, Gilles; Gianmoena, Kathrin; Cadenas, Cristina; Polansky, Julia K.; Ebert, Peter; Nordström, Karl; Barann, Matthias; Sinha, Anupam; Fröhler, Sebastian; Xiong, Jieyi; Dehghani Amirabad, Azim; Behjati Ardakani, Fatemeh; Hutter, Barbara; Zipprich, Gideon; Felder, Bärbel; Eils, Jürgen; Brors, Benedikt; Chen, Wei; Hengstler, Jan G.; Hamann, Alf; Lengauer, Thomas; Rosenstiel, Philip; Walter, Jörn; Schulz, Marcel H.

2017-01-01

The binding and contribution of transcription factors (TF) to cell specific gene expression is often deduced from open-chromatin measurements to avoid costly TF ChIP-seq assays. Thus, it is important to develop computational methods for accurate TF binding prediction in open-chromatin regions (OCRs). Here, we report a novel segmentation-based method, TEPIC, to predict TF binding by combining sets of OCRs with position weight matrices. TEPIC can be applied to various open-chromatin data, e.g. DNaseI-seq and NOMe-seq. Additionally, Histone-Marks (HMs) can be used to identify candidate TF binding sites. TEPIC computes TF affinities and uses open-chromatin/HM signal intensity as quantitative measures of TF binding strength. Using machine learning, we find low affinity binding sites to improve our ability to explain gene expression variability compared to the standard presence/absence classification of binding sites. Further, we show that both footprints and peaks capture essential TF binding events and lead to a good prediction performance. In our application, gene-based scores computed by TEPIC with one open-chromatin assay nearly reach the quality of several TF ChIP-seq data sets. Finally, these scores correctly predict known transcriptional regulators as illustrated by the application to novel DNaseI-seq and NOMe-seq data for primary human hepatocytes and CD4+ T-cells, respectively. PMID:27899623

SNBRFinder: A Sequence-Based Hybrid Algorithm for Enhanced Prediction of Nucleic Acid-Binding Residues.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaoxia; Wang, Jia; Sun, Jun; Liu, Rong

2015-01-01

Protein-nucleic acid interactions are central to various fundamental biological processes. Automated methods capable of reliably identifying DNA- and RNA-binding residues in protein sequence are assuming ever-increasing importance. The majority of current algorithms rely on feature-based prediction, but their accuracy remains to be further improved. Here we propose a sequence-based hybrid algorithm SNBRFinder (Sequence-based Nucleic acid-Binding Residue Finder) by merging a feature predictor SNBRFinderF and a template predictor SNBRFinderT. SNBRFinderF was established using the support vector machine whose inputs include sequence profile and other complementary sequence descriptors, while SNBRFinderT was implemented with the sequence alignment algorithm based on profile hidden Markov models to capture the weakly homologous template of query sequence. Experimental results show that SNBRFinderF was clearly superior to the commonly used sequence profile-based predictor and SNBRFinderT can achieve comparable performance to the structure-based template methods. Leveraging the complementary relationship between these two predictors, SNBRFinder reasonably improved the performance of both DNA- and RNA-binding residue predictions. More importantly, the sequence-based hybrid prediction reached competitive performance relative to our previous structure-based counterpart. Our extensive and stringent comparisons show that SNBRFinder has obvious advantages over the existing sequence-based prediction algorithms. The value of our algorithm is highlighted by establishing an easy-to-use web server that is freely accessible at http://ibi.hzau.edu.cn/SNBRFinder.

Prediction of sand transport over immobile gravel from supply limited to capacity conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The prediction of the transport of sand in armored gravel reaches downstream of dams is complicated by variable bed conditions ranging from sand transported through gravel to sand in transport over buried gravel. Knowledge of the rate of sand transport in these conditions, however, is necessary for...

Locations of serial reach targets are coded in multiple reference frames.

PubMed

Thompson, Aidan A; Henriques, Denise Y P

2010-12-01

Previous work from our lab, and elsewhere, has demonstrated that remembered target locations are stored and updated in an eye-fixed reference frame. That is, reach errors systematically vary as a function of gaze direction relative to a remembered target location, not only when the target is viewed in the periphery (Bock, 1986, known as the retinal magnification effect), but also when the target has been foveated, and the eyes subsequently move after the target has disappeared but prior to reaching (e.g., Henriques, Klier, Smith, Lowy, & Crawford, 1998; Sorrento & Henriques, 2008; Thompson & Henriques, 2008). These gaze-dependent errors, following intervening eye movements, cannot be explained by representations whose frame is fixed to the head, body or even the world. However, it is unknown whether targets presented sequentially would all be coded relative to gaze (i.e., egocentrically/absolutely), or if they would be coded relative to the previous target (i.e., allocentrically/relatively). It might be expected that the reaching movements to two targets separated by 5° would differ by that distance. But, if gaze were to shift between the first and second reaches, would the movement amplitude between the targets differ? If the target locations are coded allocentrically (i.e., the location of the second target coded relative to the first) then the movement amplitude should be about 5°. But, if the second target is coded egocentrically (i.e., relative to current gaze direction), then the reaches to this target and the distances between the subsequent movements should vary systematically with gaze as described above. We found that requiring an intervening saccade to the opposite side of 2 briefly presented targets between reaches to them resulted in a pattern of reaching error that systematically varied as a function of the distance between current gaze and target, and led to a systematic change in the distance between the sequential reach endpoints as predicted by an egocentric frame anchored to the eye. However, the amount of change in this distance was smaller than predicted by a pure eye-fixed representation, suggesting that relative positions of the targets or allocentric coding was also used in sequential reach planning. The spatial coding and updating of sequential reach target locations seems to rely on a combined weighting of multiple reference frames, with one of them centered on the eye. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive analysis of sperm DNA fragmentation by five different assays: TUNEL assay, SCSA, SCD test and alkaline and neutral Comet assay.

PubMed

Ribas-Maynou, J; García-Peiró, A; Fernández-Encinas, A; Abad, C; Amengual, M J; Prada, E; Navarro, J; Benet, J

2013-09-01

Sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) is becoming an important test to assess male infertility. Several different tests are available, but no consensus has yet been reached as to which tests are most predictive of infertility. Few publications have reported a comprehensive analysis comparing these methods within the same population. The objective of this study was to analyze the differences between the five most common methodologies, to study their correlations and to establish their cut-off values, sensitivity and specificity in predicting male infertility. We found differences in SDF between fertile donors and infertile patients in TUNEL, SCSA, SCD and alkaline Comet assays, but none with the neutral Comet assay. The alkaline COMET assay was the best in predicting male infertility followed by TUNEL, SCD and SCSA, whereas the neutral COMET assay had no predictive power. For our patient population, threshold values for infertility were 20.05% for TUNEL assay, 18.90% for SCSA, 22.75% for the SCD test, 45.37% for alkaline Comet and 34.37% for neutral Comet. This work establishes in a comprehensive study that the all techniques except neutral Comet are useful to distinguish fertile and infertile men. © 2013 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system: part I: boreal summer and fall seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Vasubandhu; Li, H.; Wu, Z.; DiNapoli, S.

2014-03-01

This paper shows demonstrable improvement in the global seasonal climate predictability of boreal summer (at zero lead) and fall (at one season lead) seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature from a two-tiered seasonal hindcast forced with forecasted SST relative to two other contemporary operational coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. The results from an extensive set of seasonal hindcasts are analyzed to come to this conclusion. This improvement is attributed to: (1) The multi-model bias corrected SST used to force the atmospheric model. (2) The global atmospheric model which is run at a relatively high resolution of 50 km grid resolution compared to the two other coupled ocean-atmosphere models. (3) The physics of the atmospheric model, especially that related to the convective parameterization scheme. The results of the seasonal hindcast are analyzed for both deterministic and probabilistic skill. The probabilistic skill analysis shows that significant forecast skill can be harvested from these seasonal hindcasts relative to the deterministic skill analysis. The paper concludes that the coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal hindcasts have reached a reasonable fidelity to exploit their SST anomaly forecasts to force such relatively higher resolution two tier prediction experiments to glean further boreal summer and fall seasonal prediction skill.

A Random Forest Approach to Predict the Spatial Distribution ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling the magnitude and distribution of sediment-bound pollutants in estuaries is often limited by incomplete knowledge of the site and inadequate sample density. To address these modeling limitations, a decision-support tool framework was conceived that predicts sediment contamination from the sub-estuary to broader estuary extent. For this study, a Random Forest (RF) model was implemented to predict the distribution of a model contaminant, triclosan (5-chloro-2-(2,4-dichlorophenoxy)phenol) (TCS), in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA. TCS is an unregulated contaminant used in many personal care products. The RF explanatory variables were associated with TCS transport and fate (proxies) and direct and indirect environmental entry. The continuous RF TCS concentration predictions were discretized into three levels of contamination (low, medium, and high) for three different quantile thresholds. The RF model explained 63% of the variance with a minimum number of variables. Total organic carbon (TOC) (transport and fate proxy) was a strong predictor of TCS contamination causing a mean squared error increase of 59% when compared to permutations of randomized values of TOC. Additionally, combined sewer overflow discharge (environmental entry) and sand (transport and fate proxy) were strong predictors. The discretization models identified a TCS area of greatest concern in the northern reach of Narragansett Bay (Providence River sub-estuary), which was validated wi

Measuring acuity of the approximate number system reliably and validly: the evaluation of an adaptive test procedure

PubMed Central

Lindskog, Marcus; Winman, Anders; Juslin, Peter; Poom, Leo

2013-01-01

Two studies investigated the reliability and predictive validity of commonly used measures and models of Approximate Number System acuity (ANS). Study 1 investigated reliability by both an empirical approach and a simulation of maximum obtainable reliability under ideal conditions. Results showed that common measures of the Weber fraction (w) are reliable only when using a substantial number of trials, even under ideal conditions. Study 2 compared different purported measures of ANS acuity as for convergent and predictive validity in a within-subjects design and evaluated an adaptive test using the ZEST algorithm. Results showed that the adaptive measure can reduce the number of trials needed to reach acceptable reliability. Only direct tests with non-symbolic numerosity discriminations of stimuli presented simultaneously were related to arithmetic fluency. This correlation remained when controlling for general cognitive ability and perceptual speed. Further, the purported indirect measure of ANS acuity in terms of the Numeric Distance Effect (NDE) was not reliable and showed no sign of predictive validity. The non-symbolic NDE for reaction time was significantly related to direct w estimates in a direction contrary to the expected. Easier stimuli were found to be more reliable, but only harder (7:8 ratio) stimuli contributed to predictive validity. PMID:23964256

[Influence of Spectral Pre-Processing on PLS Quantitative Model of Detecting Cu in Navel Orange by LIBS].

PubMed

Li, Wen-bing; Yao, Lin-tao; Liu, Mu-hua; Huang, Lin; Yao, Ming-yin; Chen, Tian-bing; He, Xiu-wen; Yang, Ping; Hu, Hui-qin; Nie, Jiang-hui

2015-05-01

Cu in navel orange was detected rapidly by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) combined with partial least squares (PLS) for quantitative analysis, then the effect on the detection accuracy of the model with different spectral data ptetreatment methods was explored. Spectral data for the 52 Gannan navel orange samples were pretreated by different data smoothing, mean centralized and standard normal variable transform. Then 319~338 nm wavelength section containing characteristic spectral lines of Cu was selected to build PLS models, the main evaluation indexes of models such as regression coefficient (r), root mean square error of cross validation (RMSECV) and the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) were compared and analyzed. Three indicators of PLS model after 13 points smoothing and processing of the mean center were found reaching 0. 992 8, 3. 43 and 3. 4 respectively, the average relative error of prediction model is only 5. 55%, and in one word, the quality of calibration and prediction of this model are the best results. The results show that selecting the appropriate data pre-processing method, the prediction accuracy of PLS quantitative model of fruits and vegetables detected by LIBS can be improved effectively, providing a new method for fast and accurate detection of fruits and vegetables by LIBS.

Auditory and verbal memory predictors of spoken language skills in children with cochlear implants.

PubMed

de Hoog, Brigitte E; Langereis, Margreet C; van Weerdenburg, Marjolijn; Keuning, Jos; Knoors, Harry; Verhoeven, Ludo

2016-10-01

Large variability in individual spoken language outcomes remains a persistent finding in the group of children with cochlear implants (CIs), particularly in their grammatical development. In the present study, we examined the extent of delay in lexical and morphosyntactic spoken language levels of children with CIs as compared to those of a normative sample of age-matched children with normal hearing. Furthermore, the predictive value of auditory and verbal memory factors in the spoken language performance of implanted children was analyzed. Thirty-nine profoundly deaf children with CIs were assessed using a test battery including measures of lexical, grammatical, auditory and verbal memory tests. Furthermore, child-related demographic characteristics were taken into account. The majority of the children with CIs did not reach age-equivalent lexical and morphosyntactic language skills. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that lexical spoken language performance in children with CIs was best predicted by age at testing, phoneme perception, and auditory word closure. The morphosyntactic language outcomes of the CI group were best predicted by lexicon, auditory word closure, and auditory memory for words. Qualitatively good speech perception skills appear to be crucial for lexical and grammatical development in children with CIs. Furthermore, strongly developed vocabulary skills and verbal memory abilities predict morphosyntactic language skills. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alioli, Simone; Farina, Marco; Pappadopulo, Duccio

New physics, that is too heavy to be produced directly, can leave measurable imprints on the tails of kinematic distributions at the LHC.We use energetic QCD processes to perform novel measurements of the Standard Model (SM) Effective Field Theory. We show that the dijet invariant mass spectrum, and the inclusive jet transverse momentum spectrum, are sensitive to a dimension 6 operator that modifies the gluon propagator at high energies. The dominant effect is constructive or destructive interference with SM jet production. Here, we compare differential next-to-leading order predictions from POWHEG to public 7TeV jet data, including scale, PDF, and experimentalmore » uncertainties and their respective correlations. Furthermore, we constrain a New Physics (NP) scale of 3.5TeV with current data. We project the reach of future 13 and 100TeV measurements, which we estimate to be sensitive to NP scales of 8 and 60TeV, respectively. As an application, we apply our bounds to constrain heavy vector octet colorons that couple to the QCD current. We conclude that effective operators will surpass bump hunts, in terms of coloron mass reach, even for sequential couplings.« less

High-Performance Cryogenic Designs for OMEGA and the National Ignition Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goncharov, V. N.; Collins, T. J. B.; Marozas, J. A.; Regan, S. P.; Betti, R.; Boehly, T. R.; Campbell, E. M.; Froula, D. H.; Igumenshchev, I. V.; McCrory, R. L.; Myatt, J. F.; Radha, P. B.; Sangster, T. C.; Shvydky, A.

2016-10-01

The main advantage of laser symmetric direct drive (SDD) is a significantly higher coupled drive laser energy to the hot-spot internal energy at stagnation compared to that of laser indirect drive. Because of coupling losses resulting from cross-beam energy transfer (CBET), however, reaching ignition conditions on the NIF with SDD requires designs with excessively large in-flight aspect ratios ( 30). Results of cryogenic implosions performed on OMEGA show that such designs are unstable to short-scale nonuniformity growth during shell implosion. Several CBET reduction strategies have been proposed in the past. This talk will discuss high-performing designs using several CBET-mitigation techniques, including using drive laser beams smaller than the target size and wavelength detuning. Designs that are predicted to reach alpha burning regimes as well as a gain of 10 to 40 at the NIF-scale will be presented. Hydrodynamically scaled OMEGA designs with similar CBET-reduction techniques will also be discussed. This material is based upon work supported by the Department Of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0001944.

Precision probes of QCD at high energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alioli, Simone; Farina, Marco; Pappadopulo, Duccio; Ruderman, Joshua T.

2017-07-01

New physics, that is too heavy to be produced directly, can leave measurable imprints on the tails of kinematic distributions at the LHC. We use energetic QCD processes to perform novel measurements of the Standard Model (SM) Effective Field Theory. We show that the dijet invariant mass spectrum, and the inclusive jet transverse momentum spectrum, are sensitive to a dimension 6 operator that modifies the gluon propagator at high energies. The dominant effect is constructive or destructive interference with SM jet production. We compare differential next-to-leading order predictions from POWHEG to public 7 TeV jet data, including scale, PDF, and experimental uncertainties and their respective correlations. We constrain a New Physics (NP) scale of 3.5 TeV with current data. We project the reach of future 13 and 100 TeV measurements, which we estimate to be sensitive to NP scales of 8 and 60 TeV, respectively. As an application, we apply our bounds to constrain heavy vector octet colorons that couple to the QCD current. We project that effective operators will surpass bump hunts, in terms of coloron mass reach, even for sequential couplings.

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Maryam; Bekri, Mahmoud

2017-04-01

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO 2 emission trends for Iran over 2000-2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO 2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO 2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO 2 emission outlines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

United States Air Force Summer Research Program 1991. High School Apprenticeship Program (HSAP) Reports. Volume 11. Phillips Laboratory, Civil Engineering Laboratory

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-09

Crystal Polymers Tracy Reed Geophysics Laboratory (GEO) 9 Analysis of Model Output Statistics Thunderstorm Prediction Model Frank Lasley 10...four hours to twenty-four hours. It was predicted that the dogbones would turn brown once they reached the approximate annealing temperature. This was...LYS Hanscom AFB Frank A. Lasley Abstracft. Model Output Statistics (MOS) Thunderstorm prediction information and Service A weather observations

Suspended Sediment Modeling of Dredge-Disposal Effluent in the GREAT-II Study Reach,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-03-01

Illinois site. Ky = 1000 cm2/sec .... .......... 81 5-11 Model prediction vs. field observation for centerline Rock Island site ..... ............. 82 5-12...Model prediction vs. field observation for centerline Keithsburg site ...... ............. 83 5-13 Deposition rate at all points in plume for Rock...material disposal to be examined were impairment of the water column and the covering of benthic communities. The need for mathematical models to predict

A study of structural differences between TBM patients' and non-TBM persons' CSF using UV-Vis absorption spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Fangcheng; Wang, Xin; Xu, Huajia; Wang, Kai

2016-01-01

Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is a very common infectious disease in the central nervous system. The delay of diagnosing and treating TBM will lead to high disability and mortality of TBM. Hence, it is very important to promptly diagnose TBM early. In this work, we proposed a new method for diagnosing TBM with CSF samples by using UV-Vis absorption spectroscopy. CSF samples from TBM patients and non-TBM persons were compared, and the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value reached 83.6%, 69.8%, 77.2%, 76.1% respectively. Our work indicated investigation of CSF using UV-Vis absorption spectroscopy might become a potentially useful method for TBM diagnosis.

The yield and post-yield behavior of high-density polyethylene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semeliss, M. A.; Wong, R.; Tuttle, M. E.

1990-01-01

An experimental and analytical evaluation was made of the yield and post-yield behavior of high-density polyethylene, a semi-crystalline thermoplastic. Polyethylene was selected for study because it is very inexpensive and readily available in the form of thin-walled tubes. Thin-walled tubular specimens were subjected to axial loads and internal pressures, such that the specimens were subjected to a known biaxial loading. A constant octahederal shear stress rate was imposed during all tests. The measured yield and post-yield behavior was compared with predictions based on both isotropic and anisotropic models. Of particular interest was whether inelastic behavior was sensitive to the hydrostatic stress level. The major achievements and conclusions reached are discussed.

Atmospheric effects on the remote determination of thermal inertia on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Jakosky, Bruce M.

1991-01-01

Measurements of the IR brightness temperature at the Martian surface at many different times of day are presently compared with temperatures predicted by thermal models which allow sunlight to reach the surface unattenuated, in order to determine the thermal inertia of the uppermost 1-10 cm of the Martian surface. The consequences of the assumptions made are assessed in view of results from a different thermal model which invokes radiation-transfer through a dusty CO2 atmosphere, as well as sensible heat-exchange with the surface. Smaller thermal inertias imply smaller particle sizes; the results obtained suggest that low thermal-inertia regions consist of 5-micron, rather than 50-micron, particle sizes.

Neutrino Masses, Cosmological Bound and Four Zero Yukawa Textures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikary, Biswajit; Ghosal, Ambar; Roy, Probir

Four zero neutrino Yukawa textures in a specified weak basis, combined with μτ symmetry and type-I seesaw, yield a highly constrained and predictive scheme. Two alternately viable 3×3 light neutrino Majorana mass matrices mνA/mνB result with inverted/normal mass ordering. Neutrino masses, Majorana in character and predicted within definite ranges with laboratory and cosmological inputs, will have their sum probed cosmologically. The rate for 0νββ decay, though generally below the reach of planned experiments, could approach it in some parameter region. Departure from μτ symmetry due to RG evolution from a high scale and consequent CP violation, with a Jarlskog invariant whose magnitude could almost reach 6×10-3, are explored.

In vivo real-time assessment of colorectal polyp histology using an optical biopsy forceps system based on laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy.

PubMed

Rath, Timo; Tontini, Gian E; Vieth, Michael; Nägel, Andreas; Neurath, Markus F; Neumann, Helmut

2016-06-01

In order to reduce time, costs, and risks associated with resection of diminutive colorectal polyps, the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) recently proposed performance thresholds that new technologies should meet for the accurate real-time assessment of histology of colorectal polyps. In this study, we prospectively assessed whether laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (LIFS), using the new WavSTAT4 optical biopsy system, can meet the ASGE criteria. 27 patients undergoing screening or surveillance colonoscopy were included. The histology of 137 diminutive colorectal polyps was predicted in real time using LIFS and findings were compared with the results of conventional histopathological examination. The accuracy of predicting polyp histology with WavSTAT4 was assessed according to the ASGE criteria. The overall accuracy of LIFS using WavSTAT4 for predicting polyp histology was 84.7 % with sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 81.8 %, 85.2 %, and 96.1 %. When only distal colorectal diminutive polyps were considered, the NPV for excluding adenomatous histology increased to 100 % (accuracy 82.4 %, sensitivity 100 %, specificity 80.6 %). On-site, LIFS correctly predicted the recommended surveillance intervals with an accuracy of 88.9 % (24/27 patients) when compared with histology-based United States guideline recommendations; in the 3 patients for whom LIFS- and histopathology-based recommended surveillance intervals differed, LIFS predicted shorter surveillance intervals. From the data of this pilot study, LIFS using the WavSTAT4 system appears accurate enough to allow distal colorectal polyps to be left in place and nearly reaches the threshold to "resect and discard" them without pathologic assessment. WavSTAT4 therefore has the potential to reduce costs and risks associated with the removal of diminutive colorectal polyps. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Predictive validity of the HCR-20 for inpatient aggression: the effect of intellectual disability on accuracy.

PubMed

O'Shea, L E; Picchioni, M M; McCarthy, J; Mason, F L; Dickens, G L

2015-11-01

People with intellectual disability (ID) account for a large proportion of aggressive incidents in secure and forensic psychiatric services. Although the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management 20 (HCR-20) has good predictive validity in inpatient settings, it does not perform equally in all groups and there is little evidence for its efficacy in those with ID. A pseudo-prospective cohort study of the predictive efficacy of the HCR-20 for those with ID (n = 109) was conducted in a UK secure mental health setting using routinely collected risk data. Performance of the HCR-20 in the ID group was compared with a comparison group of adult inpatients without an ID (n = 504). Analysis controlled for potential covariates including security level, length of stay, gender and diagnosis. The HCR-20 total score was a significant predictor of any aggression and of physical aggression for both groups, although the area under the curve values did not reach the threshold for a large effect size. The clinical subscale performed significantly better in those without an ID compared with those with. The ID group had a greater number of relevant historical and risk management items. The clinicians' summary judgment significantly predicted both types of aggressive outcomes in the ID group, but did not predict either in those without an ID. This study demonstrates that, after controlling for a range of potential covariates, the HCR-20 is a significant predictor of inpatient aggression in people with an ID and performs as well as for a comparison group of mentally disordered individuals without ID. The potency of HCR-20 subscales and items varied between the ID and comparison groups suggesting important target areas for improved prediction and risk management interventions in those with ID. © 2015 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of Cardiorespiratory Fitness by the Six-Minute Step Test and Its Association with Muscle Strength and Power in Sedentary Obese and Lean Young Women: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Bonjorno Junior, José Carlos; de Oliveira, Cláudio Ricardo; Luporini, Rafael Luís; Mendes, Renata Gonçalves; Zangrando, Katiany Thais Lopes; Trimer, Renata; Arena, Ross

2015-01-01

Impaired cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a hallmark characteristic in obese and lean sedentary young women. Peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) prediction from the six-minute step test (6MST) has not been established for sedentary females. It is recognized that lower-limb muscle strength and power play a key role during functional activities. The aim of this study was to investigate cardiorespiratory responses during the 6MST and CPX and to develop a predictive equation to estimate VO2peak in both lean and obese subjects. Additionally we aim to investigate how muscle function impacts functional performance. Lean (LN = 13) and obese (OB = 18) women, aged 20–45, underwent a CPX, two 6MSTs, and isokinetic and isometric knee extensor strength and power evaluations. Regression analysis assessed the ability to predict VO2peak from the 6MST, age and body mass index (BMI). CPX and 6MST main outcomes were compared between LN and OB and correlated with strength and power variables. CRF, functional capacity, and muscle strength and power were lower in the OB compared to LN (<0.05). During the 6MST, LN and OB reached ~90% of predicted maximal heart rate and ~80% of the VO2peak obtained during CPX. BMI, age and number of step cycles (NSC) explained 83% of the total variance in VO2peak. Moderate to strong correlations between VO2peak at CPX and VO2peak at 6MST (r = 0.86), VO2peak at CPX and NSC (r = 0.80), as well as between VO2peak, NSC and muscle strength and power variables were found (p<0.05). These findings indicate the 6MST, BMI and age accurately predict VO2peak in both lean and obese young sedentary women. Muscle strength and power were related to measures of aerobic and functional performance. PMID:26717568

Magnetic resonance imaging in local staging of endometrial carcinoma: diagnostic performance, pitfalls, and literature review.

PubMed

Zandrino, Franco; La Paglia, Ernesto; Musante, Francesco

2010-01-01

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging in local staging of endometrial carcinoma, and to review the results and pitfalls described in the literature. Thirty women with a histological diagnosis of endometrial carcinoma underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Unenhanced T2-weighted and dynamic contrast-enhanced Ti-weighted sequences were obtained. Hysterectomy and salpingo-oophorectomy was performed in all patients. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy were calculated for the detection of deep myometrial and cervical infiltration. For deep myometrial infiltration T2-weighted sequences reached a sensitivity of 85%, specificity of 76%, PPV of 73%, NVP of 87%, and accuracy of 80%, while contrast-enhanced scans reached a sensitivity of 90%, specificity of 80%, PPV of 82%, NPV of 89%, and accuracy of 85%. For cervical infiltration T2-weighted sequences reached a sensitivity of 75%, specificity of 88%, PPV of 50%, NPV of 96%, and accuracy of 87%, while contrast-enhanced scans reached a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 94%, PPV of 75%, NPV of 100%, and accuracy of 95%. Unenhanced and dynamic gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance allows accurate assessment of myometrial and cervical infiltration. Information provided by magnetic resonance imaging can define prognosis and management.

Sensitivity of high-elevation streams in the Southern Blue Ridge Province to acidic deposition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winger, P.V.; Lasier, P.J.; Hudy, M.; Fowler, D.; Van Den Avyle, M.J.

1987-01-01

The Southern Blue Ridge Province, which encompasses parts of northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina, has been predicted to be sensitive to impacts from acidic deposition, owing to the chemical composition of the bedrock geology and soils. This study confirms the predicted potential sensitivity, quantifies the level of total alkalinity and describes the chemical characteristics of 30 headwater streams of this area. Water chemistry was measured five times between April 1983 and June 1984 at first and third order reaches of each stream during baseflow conditions. Sensitivity based on total alkalinity and the Calcite Saturation Index indicates that the headwater streams of the Province are vulnerable to acidification. Total alkalinity and p11 were generally higher in third order reaches (mean, 72 ?eq/? and 6.7) than in first order reaches (64 ?eq/? and 6.4). Ionic concentrations were low, averaging 310 and 340 ?eq/? in first and third order reaches, respectively. A single sampling appears adequate for evaluating sensitivity based on total alkalinity, but large temporal variability requires multiple sampling for the detection of changes in pH and alkalinity over time. Monitoring of stream water should continue in order to detect any subtle effects of acidic deposition on these unique resource systems.

Evaluation of the 2008 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beer, W. Nicholas; Iltis, Susannah; Anderson, James J.

2009-01-01

Columbia Basin Research uses the COMPASS model on a daily basis during the outmigration of Snake River Chinook and steelhead smolts to predict downstream passage and survival. Fish arrival predictions and observations from program RealTime along with predicted and observed environmental conditions are used to make in-season predictions of arrival and survival to various dams in the Columbia and Snake Rivers. For 2008, calibrations of travel and survival parameters for two stocks of fish-Snake River yearling PIT-tagged wild chinook salmon (chin1pit) and Snake River PIT-tagged steelhead (lgrStlhd)-were used to model travel and survival of steelhead and chinook stocks from Lowermore » Granite Dam (LWG) or McNary Dam (MCN) to Bonneville Dam (BON). This report summarizes the success of the COMPASS/RealTime process to model these migrations as they occur. We compared model results on timing and survival to data from two sources: stock specific counts at dams and end-of-season control survival estimates (Jim Faulkner, NOAA, pers. comm. Dec. 16, 2008). The difference between the predicted and observed day of median passage and the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) between predicted and observed arrival cumulative distributions are measures of timing accuracy. MAD is essentially the average percentage error over the season. The difference between the predicted and observed survivals is a measure of survival accuracy. Model results and timing data were in good agreement from LWG to John Day Dam (JDA). Predictions of median passage days for the chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks were 0 and 2 days (respectively) later than observed. MAD for chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks at JDA were 2.3% and 5.9% (respectively). Between JDA and BON modeling and timing data were not as well matched. At BON, median passage predictions were 6 and 10 days later than observed and MAD values were 7.8% and 16.0% respectively. Model results and survival data were in good agreement from LWG to MCN. COMPASS predicted survivals of 0.77 and 0.69 for chin1pit and lgrStlhd, while the data control's survivals were 0.79 and 0.68. The differences are 0.02 and 0.01 (respectively), nearly identical. However, from MCN to BON, COMPASS predicted survivals of 0.74 and 0.69 while the data controls survivals were 0.47 and 0.53 respectively. Differences of 0.27 and 0.16. In summary: Travel and survival of chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks were well modeled in the upper reaches. Fish in the lower reaches down through BON suffered unmodeled mortality, and/or passed BON undetected. A drop in bypass fraction and unmodeled mortality during the run could produce such patterns by shifting the observed median passage day to appear artificially early.« less

Single trial prediction of self-paced reaching directions from EEG signals.

PubMed

Lew, Eileen Y L; Chavarriaga, Ricardo; Silvoni, Stefano; Millán, José Del R

2014-01-01

Early detection of movement intention could possibly minimize the delays in the activation of neuroprosthetic devices. As yet, single trial analysis using non-invasive approaches for understanding such movement preparation remains a challenging task. We studied the feasibility of predicting movement directions in self-paced upper limb center-out reaching tasks, i.e., spontaneous movements executed without an external cue that can better reflect natural motor behavior in humans. We reported results of non-invasive electroencephalography (EEG) recorded from mild stroke patients and able-bodied participants. Previous studies have shown that low frequency EEG oscillations are modulated by the intent to move and therefore, can be decoded prior to the movement execution. Motivated by these results, we investigated whether slow cortical potentials (SCPs) preceding movement onset can be used to classify reaching directions and evaluated the performance using 5-fold cross-validation. For able-bodied subjects, we obtained an average decoding accuracy of 76% (chance level of 25%) at 62.5 ms before onset using the amplitude of on-going SCPs with above chance level performances between 875 to 437.5 ms prior to onset. The decoding accuracy for the stroke patients was on average 47% with their paretic arms. Comparison of the decoding accuracy across different frequency ranges (i.e., SCPs, delta, theta, alpha, and gamma) yielded the best accuracy using SCPs filtered between 0.1 to 1 Hz. Across all the subjects, including stroke subjects, the best selected features were obtained mostly from the fronto-parietal regions, hence consistent with previous neurophysiological studies on arm reaching tasks. In summary, we concluded that SCPs allow the possibility of single trial decoding of reaching directions at least 312.5 ms before onset of reach.

Azimuthal decorrelation of jets widely separated in rapidity in pp collisions at √{s}=7 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; Asilar, E.; Bergauer, T.; Brandstetter, J.; Brondolin, E.; Dragicevic, M.; Erö, J.; Flechl, M.; Friedl, M.; Frühwirth, R.; Ghete, V. M.; Hartl, C.; Hörmann, N.; Hrubec, J.; Jeitler, M.; Knünz, V.; König, A.; Krammer, M.; Krätschmer, I.; Liko, D.; Matsushita, T.; Mikulec, I.; Rabady, D.; Rahbaran, B.; Rohringer, H.; Schieck, J.; Schöfbeck, R.; Strauss, J.; Treberer-Treberspurg, W.; Waltenberger, W.; Wulz, C.-E.; Mossolov, V.; Shumeiko, N.; Suarez Gonzalez, J.; Alderweireldt, S.; Cornelis, T.; de Wolf, E. A.; Janssen, X.; Knutsson, A.; Lauwers, J.; Luyckx, S.; Ochesanu, S.; Rougny, R.; van de Klundert, M.; van Haevermaet, H.; van Mechelen, P.; van Remortel, N.; van Spilbeeck, A.; Abu Zeid, S.; Blekman, F.; D'Hondt, J.; Daci, N.; de Bruyn, I.; Deroover, K.; Heracleous, N.; Keaveney, J.; Lowette, S.; Moreels, L.; Olbrechts, A.; Python, Q.; Strom, D.; Tavernier, S.; van Doninck, W.; van Mulders, P.; van Onsem, G. P.; van Parijs, I.; Barria, P.; Caillol, C.; Clerbaux, B.; de Lentdecker, G.; Delannoy, H.; Fasanella, G.; Favart, L.; Gay, A. P. R.; Grebenyuk, A.; Karapostoli, G.; Lenzi, T.; Léonard, A.; Maerschalk, T.; Marinov, A.; Perniè, L.; Randle-Conde, A.; Reis, T.; Seva, T.; Vander Velde, C.; Vanlaer, P.; Yonamine, R.; Zenoni, F.; Zhang, F.; Beernaert, K.; Benucci, L.; Cimmino, A.; Crucy, S.; Dobur, D.; Fagot, A.; Garcia, G.; Gul, M.; McCartin, J.; Ocampo Rios, A. A.; Poyraz, D.; Ryckbosch, D.; Salva, S.; Sigamani, M.; Strobbe, N.; Tytgat, M.; van Driessche, W.; Yazgan, E.; Zaganidis, N.; Basegmez, S.; Beluffi, C.; Bondu, O.; Brochet, S.; Bruno, G.; Castello, R.; Caudron, A.; Ceard, L.; da Silveira, G. G.; Delaere, C.; Favart, D.; Forthomme, L.; Giammanco, A.; Hollar, J.; Jafari, A.; Jez, P.; Komm, M.; Lemaitre, V.; Mertens, A.; Nuttens, C.; Perrini, L.; Pin, A.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Popov, A.; Quertenmont, L.; Selvaggi, M.; Vidal Marono, M.; Beliy, N.; Hammad, G. H.; Aldá Júnior, W. L.; Alves, G. A.; Brito, L.; Correa Martins Junior, M.; Hamer, M.; Hensel, C.; Mora Herrera, C.; Moraes, A.; Pol, M. E.; Rebello Teles, P.; Belchior Batista Das Chagas, E.; Carvalho, W.; Chinellato, J.; Custódio, A.; da Costa, E. M.; de Jesus Damiao, D.; de Oliveira Martins, C.; Fonseca de Souza, S.; Huertas Guativa, L. M.; Malbouisson, H.; Matos Figueiredo, D.; Mundim, L.; Nogima, H.; Prado da Silva, W. L.; Santoro, A.; Sznajder, A.; Tonelli Manganote, E. J.; Vilela Pereira, A.; Ahuja, S.; Bernardes, C. A.; de Souza Santos, A.; Dogra, S.; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T. R.; Gregores, E. M.; Mercadante, P. G.; Moon, C. S.; Novaes, S. F.; Padula, Sandra S.; Romero Abad, D.; Ruiz Vargas, J. C.; Aleksandrov, A.; Hadjiiska, R.; Iaydjiev, P.; Rodozov, M.; Stoykova, S.; Sultanov, G.; Vutova, M.; Dimitrov, A.; Glushkov, I.; Litov, L.; Pavlov, B.; Petkov, P.; Ahmad, M.; Bian, J. G.; Chen, G. M.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, M.; Cheng, T.; Du, R.; Jiang, C. H.; Plestina, R.; Romeo, F.; Shaheen, S. M.; Tao, J.; Wang, C.; Wang, Z.; Zhang, H.; Asawatangtrakuldee, C.; Ban, Y.; Li, Q.; Liu, S.; Mao, Y.; Qian, S. J.; Wang, D.; Xu, Z.; Zou, W.; Avila, C.; Cabrera, A.; Chaparro Sierra, L. F.; Florez, C.; Gomez, J. P.; Gomez Moreno, B.; Sanabria, J. C.; Godinovic, N.; Lelas, D.; Puljak, I.; Ribeiro Cipriano, P. M.; Antunovic, Z.; Kovac, M.; Brigljevic, V.; Kadija, K.; Luetic, J.; Micanovic, S.; Sudic, L.; Attikis, A.; Mavromanolakis, G.; Mousa, J.; Nicolaou, C.; Ptochos, F.; Razis, P. A.; Rykaczewski, H.; Bodlak, M.; Finger, M.; Finger, M.; El-Khateeb, E.; Elkafrawy, T.; Mohamed, A.; Radi, A.; Salama, E.; Calpas, B.; Kadastik, M.; Murumaa, M.; Raidal, M.; Tiko, A.; Veelken, C.; Eerola, P.; Pekkanen, J.; Voutilainen, M.; Härkönen, J.; Karimäki, V.; Kinnunen, R.; Lampén, T.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Lehti, S.; Lindén, T.; Luukka, P.; Mäenpää, T.; Peltola, T.; Tuominen, E.; Tuominiemi, J.; Tuovinen, E.; Wendland, L.; Talvitie, J.; Tuuva, T.; Besancon, M.; Couderc, F.; Dejardin, M.; Denegri, D.; Fabbro, B.; Faure, J. L.; Favaro, C.; Ferri, F.; Ganjour, S.; Givernaud, A.; Gras, P.; Hamel de Monchenault, G.; Jarry, P.; Locci, E.; Machet, M.; Malcles, J.; Rander, J.; Rosowsky, A.; Titov, M.; Zghiche, A.; Antropov, I.; Baffioni, S.; Beaudette, F.; Busson, P.; Cadamuro, L.; Chapon, E.; Charlot, C.; Dahms, T.; Davignon, O.; Filipovic, N.; Florent, A.; Granier de Cassagnac, R.; Lisniak, S.; Mastrolorenzo, L.; Miné, P.; Naranjo, I. N.; Nguyen, M.; Ochando, C.; Ortona, G.; Paganini, P.; Pigard, P.; Regnard, S.; Salerno, R.; Sauvan, J. B.; Sirois, Y.; Strebler, T.; Yilmaz, Y.; Zabi, A.; Agram, J.-L.; Andrea, J.; Aubin, A.; Bloch, D.; Brom, J.-M.; Buttignol, M.; Chabert, E. C.; Chanon, N.; Collard, C.; Conte, E.; Coubez, X.; Fontaine, J.-C.; Gelé, D.; Goerlach, U.; Goetzmann, C.; Le Bihan, A.-C.; Merlin, J. A.; Skovpen, K.; van Hove, P.; Gadrat, S.; Beauceron, S.; Bernet, C.; Boudoul, G.; Bouvier, E.; Carrillo Montoya, C. A.; Chierici, R.; Contardo, D.; Courbon, B.; Depasse, P.; El Mamouni, H.; Fan, J.; Fay, J.; Gascon, S.; Gouzevitch, M.; Ille, B.; Lagarde, F.; Laktineh, I. B.; Lethuillier, M.; Mirabito, L.; Pequegnot, A. L.; Perries, S.; Ruiz Alvarez, J. D.; Sabes, D.; Sgandurra, L.; Sordini, V.; Vander Donckt, M.; Verdier, P.; Viret, S.; Xiao, H.; Toriashvili, T.; Tsamalaidze, Z.; Autermann, C.; Beranek, S.; Edelhoff, M.; Feld, L.; Heister, A.; Kiesel, M. K.; Klein, K.; Lipinski, M.; Ostapchuk, A.; Preuten, M.; Raupach, F.; Schael, S.; Schulte, J. F.; Verlage, T.; Weber, H.; Wittmer, B.; Zhukov, V.; Ata, M.; Brodski, M.; Dietz-Laursonn, E.; Duchardt, D.; Endres, M.; Erdmann, M.; Erdweg, S.; Esch, T.; Fischer, R.; Güth, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heidemann, C.; Hoepfner, K.; Klingebiel, D.; Knutzen, S.; Kreuzer, P.; Merschmeyer, M.; Meyer, A.; Millet, P.; Olschewski, M.; Padeken, K.; Papacz, P.; Pook, T.; Radziej, M.; Reithler, H.; Rieger, M.; Scheuch, F.; Sonnenschein, L.; Teyssier, D.; Thüer, S.; Cherepanov, V.; Erdogan, Y.; Flügge, G.; Geenen, H.; Geisler, M.; Hoehle, F.; Kargoll, B.; Kress, T.; Kuessel, Y.; Künsken, A.; Lingemann, J.; Nehrkorn, A.; Nowack, A.; Nugent, I. M.; Pistone, C.; Pooth, O.; Stahl, A.; Aldaya Martin, M.; Asin, I.; Bartosik, N.; Behnke, O.; Behrens, U.; Bell, A. 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M.; Lanza, G.; Lista, L.; Meola, S.; Merola, M.; Paolucci, P.; Sciacca, C.; Thyssen, F.; Azzi, P.; Bacchetta, N.; Benato, L.; Bisello, D.; Boletti, A.; Carlin, R.; Checchia, P.; Dall'Osso, M.; Dorigo, T.; Fanzago, F.; Gasparini, F.; Gasparini, U.; Gozzelino, A.; Lacaprara, S.; Margoni, M.; Maron, G.; Meneguzzo, A. T.; Montecassiano, F.; Pazzini, J.; Pozzobon, N.; Ronchese, P.; Simonetto, F.; Torassa, E.; Tosi, M.; Ventura, S.; Zanetti, M.; Zotto, P.; Zucchetta, A.; Zumerle, G.; Braghieri, A.; Magnani, A.; Montagna, P.; Ratti, S. P.; Re, V.; Riccardi, C.; Salvini, P.; Vai, I.; Vitulo, P.; Alunni Solestizi, L.; Biasini, M.; Bilei, G. M.; Ciangottini, D.; Fanò, L.; Lariccia, P.; Mantovani, G.; Menichelli, M.; Saha, A.; Santocchia, A.; Spiezia, A.; Androsov, K.; Azzurri, P.; Bagliesi, G.; Bernardini, J.; Boccali, T.; Broccolo, G.; Castaldi, R.; Ciocci, M. A.; Dell'Orso, R.; Donato, S.; Fedi, G.; Foà, L.; Giassi, A.; Grippo, M. T.; Ligabue, F.; Lomtadze, T.; Martini, L.; Messineo, A.; Palla, F.; Rizzi, A.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Serban, A. T.; Spagnolo, P.; Squillacioti, P.; Tenchini, R.; Tonelli, G.; Venturi, A.; Verdini, P. G.; Barone, L.; Cavallari, F.; D'Imperio, G.; Del Re, D.; Diemoz, M.; Gelli, S.; Jorda, C.; Longo, E.; Margaroli, F.; Meridiani, P.; Organtini, G.; Paramatti, R.; Preiato, F.; Rahatlou, S.; Rovelli, C.; Santanastasio, F.; Traczyk, P.; Amapane, N.; Arcidiacono, R.; Argiro, S.; Arneodo, M.; Bellan, R.; Biino, C.; Cartiglia, N.; Costa, M.; Covarelli, R.; Degano, A.; Demaria, N.; Finco, L.; Mariotti, C.; Maselli, S.; Mazza, G.; Migliore, E.; Monaco, V.; Monteil, E.; Musich, M.; Obertino, M. M.; Pacher, L.; Pastrone, N.; Pelliccioni, M.; Pinna Angioni, G. 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V.; Vinogradov, A.; Baskakov, A.; Belyaev, A.; Boos, E.; Ershov, A.; Gribushin, A.; Khein, L.; Klyukhin, V.; Kodolova, O.; Lokhtin, I.; Lukina, O.; Myagkov, I.; Obraztsov, S.; Petrushanko, S.; Savrin, V.; Snigirev, A.; Azhgirey, I.; Bayshev, I.; Bitioukov, S.; Kachanov, V.; Kalinin, A.; Konstantinov, D.; Krychkine, V.; Petrov, V.; Ryutin, R.; Sobol, A.; Tourtchanovitch, L.; Troshin, S.; Tyurin, N.; Uzunian, A.; Volkov, A.; Adzic, P.; Ekmedzic, M.; Milosevic, J.; Rekovic, V.; Alcaraz Maestre, J.; Calvo, E.; Cerrada, M.; Chamizo Llatas, M.; Colino, N.; de La Cruz, B.; Delgado Peris, A.; Domínguez Vázquez, D.; Escalante Del Valle, A.; Fernandez Bedoya, C.; Fernández Ramos, J. P.; Flix, J.; Fouz, M. C.; Garcia-Abia, P.; Gonzalez Lopez, O.; Goy Lopez, S.; Hernandez, J. M.; Josa, M. I.; Navarro de Martino, E.; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, A.; Puerta Pelayo, J.; Quintario Olmeda, A.; Redondo, I.; Romero, L.; Soares, M. S.; Albajar, C.; de Trocóniz, J. 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M.; Cieri, D.; Cockerill, D. J. A.; Coughlan, J. A.; Harder, K.; Harper, S.; Olaiya, E.; Petyt, D.; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C. H.; Thea, A.; Thomas, L.; Tomalin, I. R.; Williams, T.; Womersley, W. J.; Worm, S. D.; Baber, M.; Bainbridge, R.; Buchmuller, O.; Bundock, A.; Burton, D.; Casasso, S.; Citron, M.; Colling, D.; Corpe, L.; Cripps, N.; Dauncey, P.; Davies, G.; de Wit, A.; Della Negra, M.; Dunne, P.; Elwood, A.; Ferguson, W.; Fulcher, J.; Futyan, D.; Hall, G.; Iles, G.; Kenzie, M.; Lane, R.; Lucas, R.; Lyons, L.; Magnan, A.-M.; Malik, S.; Nash, J.; Nikitenko, A.; Pela, J.; Pesaresi, M.; Petridis, K.; Raymond, D. M.; Richards, A.; Rose, A.; Seez, C.; Tapper, A.; Uchida, K.; Vazquez Acosta, M.; Virdee, T.; Zenz, S. C.; Cole, J. E.; Hobson, P. R.; Khan, A.; Kyberd, P.; Leggat, D.; Leslie, D.; Reid, I. D.; Symonds, P.; Teodorescu, L.; Turner, M.; Borzou, A.; Call, K.; Dittmann, J.; Hatakeyama, K.; Kasmi, A.; Liu, H.; Pastika, N.; Charaf, O.; Cooper, S. I.; Henderson, C.; Rumerio, P.; Avetisyan, A.; Bose, T.; Fantasia, C.; Gastler, D.; Lawson, P.; Rankin, D.; Richardson, C.; Rohlf, J.; St. John, J.; Sulak, L.; Zou, D.; Alimena, J.; Berry, E.; Bhattacharya, S.; Cutts, D.; Dhingra, N.; Ferapontov, A.; Garabedian, A.; Hakala, J.; Heintz, U.; Laird, E.; Landsberg, G.; Mao, Z.; Narain, M.; Piperov, S.; Sagir, S.; Sinthuprasith, T.; Syarif, R.; Breedon, R.; Breto, G.; Calderon de La Barca Sanchez, M.; Chauhan, S.; Chertok, M.; Conway, J.; Conway, R.; Cox, P. T.; Erbacher, R.; Gardner, M.; Ko, W.; Lander, R.; Mulhearn, M.; Pellett, D.; Pilot, J.; Ricci-Tam, F.; Shalhout, S.; Smith, J.; Squires, M.; Stolp, D.; Tripathi, M.; Wilbur, S.; Yohay, R.; Cousins, R.; Everaerts, P.; Farrell, C.; Hauser, J.; Ignatenko, M.; Saltzberg, D.; Takasugi, E.; Valuev, V.; Weber, M.; Burt, K.; Clare, R.; Ellison, J.; Gary, J. W.; Hanson, G.; Heilman, J.; Ivova Paneva, M.; Jandir, P.; Kennedy, E.; Lacroix, F.; Long, O. R.; Luthra, A.; Malberti, M.; Olmedo Negrete, M.; Shrinivas, A.; Wei, H.; Wimpenny, S.; Branson, J. G.; Cerati, G. B.; Cittolin, S.; D'Agnolo, R. T.; Holzner, A.; Kelley, R.; Klein, D.; Letts, J.; MacNeill, I.; Olivito, D.; Padhi, S.; Pieri, M.; Sani, M.; Sharma, V.; Simon, S.; Tadel, M.; Vartak, A.; Wasserbaech, S.; Welke, C.; Würthwein, F.; Yagil, A.; Zevi Della Porta, G.; Barge, D.; Bradmiller-Feld, J.; Campagnari, C.; Dishaw, A.; Dutta, V.; Flowers, K.; Franco Sevilla, M.; Geffert, P.; George, C.; Golf, F.; Gouskos, L.; Gran, J.; Incandela, J.; Justus, C.; McColl, N.; Mullin, S. D.; Richman, J.; Stuart, D.; Suarez, I.; To, W.; West, C.; Yoo, J.; Anderson, D.; Apresyan, A.; Bornheim, A.; Bunn, J.; Chen, Y.; Duarte, J.; Mott, A.; Newman, H. B.; Pena, C.; Pierini, M.; Spiropulu, M.; Vlimant, J. R.; Xie, S.; Zhu, R. Y.; Azzolini, V.; Calamba, A.; Carlson, B.; Ferguson, T.; Paulini, M.; Russ, J.; Sun, M.; Vogel, H.; Vorobiev, I.; Cumalat, J. P.; Ford, W. T.; Gaz, A.; Jensen, F.; Johnson, A.; Krohn, M.; Mulholland, T.; Nauenberg, U.; Stenson, K.; Wagner, S. R.; Alexander, J.; Chatterjee, A.; Chaves, J.; Chu, J.; Dittmer, S.; Eggert, N.; Mirman, N.; Nicolas Kaufman, G.; Patterson, J. R.; Rinkevicius, A.; Ryd, A.; Skinnari, L.; Soffi, L.; Sun, W.; Tan, S. M.; Teo, W. D.; Thom, J.; Thompson, J.; Tucker, J.; Weng, Y.; Wittich, P.; Abdullin, S.; Albrow, M.; Anderson, J.; Apollinari, G.; Bauerdick, L. A. T.; Beretvas, A.; Berryhill, J.; Bhat, P. C.; Bolla, G.; Burkett, K.; Butler, J. N.; Cheung, H. W. K.; Chlebana, F.; Cihangir, S.; Elvira, V. D.; Fisk, I.; Freeman, J.; Gottschalk, E.; Gray, L.; Green, D.; Grünendahl, S.; Gutsche, O.; Hanlon, J.; Hare, D.; Harris, R. M.; Hirschauer, J.; Hooberman, B.; Hu, Z.; Jindariani, S.; Johnson, M.; Joshi, U.; Jung, A. W.; Klima, B.; Kreis, B.; Kwan, S.; Lammel, S.; Linacre, J.; Lincoln, D.; Lipton, R.; Liu, T.; Lopes de Sá, R.; Lykken, J.; Maeshima, K.; Marraffino, J. M.; Martinez Outschoorn, V. I.; Maruyama, S.; Mason, D.; McBride, P.; Merkel, P.; Mishra, K.; Mrenna, S.; Nahn, S.; Newman-Holmes, C.; O'Dell, V.; Pedro, K.; Prokofyev, O.; Rakness, G.; Sexton-Kennedy, E.; Soha, A.; Spalding, W. J.; Spiegel, L.; Taylor, L.; Tkaczyk, S.; Tran, N. V.; Uplegger, L.; Vaandering, E. W.; Vernieri, C.; Verzocchi, M.; Vidal, R.; Weber, H. A.; Whitbeck, A.; Yang, F.; Acosta, D.; Avery, P.; Bortignon, P.; Bourilkov, D.; Carnes, A.; Carver, M.; Curry, D.; Das, S.; di Giovanni, G. P.; Field, R. D.; Furic, I. K.; Hugon, J.; Konigsberg, J.; Korytov, A.; Low, J. F.; Ma, P.; Matchev, K.; Mei, H.; Milenovic, P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Rank, D.; Rossin, R.; Shchutska, L.; Snowball, M.; Sperka, D.; Wang, J.; Wang, S.; Yelton, J.; Hewamanage, S.; Linn, S.; Markowitz, P.; Martinez, G.; Rodriguez, J. L.; Ackert, A.; Adams, J. R.; Adams, T.; Askew, A.; Bochenek, J.; Diamond, B.; Haas, J.; Hagopian, S.; Hagopian, V.; Johnson, K. F.; Khatiwada, A.; Prosper, H.; Veeraraghavan, V.; Weinberg, M.; Baarmand, M. M.; Bhopatkar, V.; Hohlmann, M.; Kalakhety, H.; Noonan, D.; Roy, T.; Yumiceva, F.; Adams, M. R.; Apanasevich, L.; Berry, D.; Betts, R. R.; Bucinskaite, I.; Cavanaugh, R.; Evdokimov, O.; Gauthier, L.; Gerber, C. E.; Hofman, D. J.; Kurt, P.; O'Brien, C.; Sandoval Gonzalez, I. D.; Silkworth, C.; Turner, P.; Varelas, N.; Wu, Z.; Zakaria, M.; Bilki, B.; Clarida, W.; Dilsiz, K.; Durgut, S.; Gandrajula, R. P.; Haytmyradov, M.; Khristenko, V.; Merlo, J.-P.; Mermerkaya, H.; Mestvirishvili, A.; Moeller, A.; Nachtman, J.; Ogul, H.; Onel, Y.; Ozok, F.; Penzo, A.; Snyder, C.; Tan, P.; Tiras, E.; Wetzel, J.; Yi, K.; Anderson, I.; Barnett, B. A.; Blumenfeld, B.; Fehling, D.; Feng, L.; Gritsan, A. V.; Maksimovic, P.; Martin, C.; Osherson, M.; Swartz, M.; Xiao, M.; Xin, Y.; You, C.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Benelli, G.; Bruner, C.; Kenny, R. P.; Majumder, D.; Malek, M.; Murray, M.; Sanders, S.; Stringer, R.; Wang, Q.; Wood, J. S.; Ivanov, A.; Kaadze, K.; Khalil, S.; Makouski, M.; Maravin, Y.; Mohammadi, A.; Saini, L. K.; Skhirtladze, N.; Toda, S.; Lange, D.; Rebassoo, F.; Wright, D.; Anelli, C.; Baden, A.; Baron, O.; Belloni, A.; Calvert, B.; Eno, S. C.; Ferraioli, C.; Gomez, J. A.; Hadley, N. J.; Jabeen, S.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kolberg, T.; Kunkle, J.; Lu, Y.; Mignerey, A. C.; Shin, Y. H.; Skuja, A.; Tonjes, M. B.; Tonwar, S. C.; Apyan, A.; Barbieri, R.; Baty, A.; Bierwagen, K.; Brandt, S.; Busza, W.; Cali, I. A.; Demiragli, Z.; Di Matteo, L.; Gomez Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; Gulhan, D.; Iiyama, Y.; Innocenti, G. M.; Klute, M.; Kovalskyi, D.; Lai, Y. S.; Lee, Y.-J.; Levin, A.; Luckey, P. D.; Marini, A. C.; McGinn, C.; Mironov, C.; Niu, X.; Paus, C.; Ralph, D.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Salfeld-Nebgen, J.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Sumorok, K.; Varma, M.; Velicanu, D.; Veverka, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, T. W.; Wyslouch, B.; Yang, M.; Zhukova, V.; Dahmes, B.; Finkel, A.; Gude, A.; Hansen, P.; Kalafut, S.; Kao, S. C.; Klapoetke, K.; Kubota, Y.; Lesko, Z.; Mans, J.; Nourbakhsh, S.; Ruckstuhl, N.; Rusack, R.; Tambe, N.; Turkewitz, J.; Acosta, J. G.; Oliveros, S.; Avdeeva, E.; Bloom, K.; Bose, S.; Claes, D. R.; Dominguez, A.; Fangmeier, C.; Gonzalez Suarez, R.; Kamalieddin, R.; Keller, J.; Knowlton, D.; Kravchenko, I.; Lazo-Flores, J.; Meier, F.; Monroy, J.; Ratnikov, F.; Siado, J. E.; Snow, G. R.; Alyari, M.; Dolen, J.; George, J.; Godshalk, A.; Harrington, C.; Iashvili, I.; Kaisen, J.; Kharchilava, A.; Kumar, A.; Rappoccio, S.; Alverson, G.; Barberis, E.; Baumgartel, D.; Chasco, M.; Hortiangtham, A.; Massironi, A.; Morse, D. M.; Nash, D.; Orimoto, T.; Teixeira de Lima, R.; Trocino, D.; Wang, R.-J.; Wood, D.; Zhang, J.; Hahn, K. A.; Kubik, A.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Pollack, B.; Pozdnyakov, A.; Schmitt, M.; Stoynev, S.; Sung, K.; Trovato, M.; Velasco, M.; Brinkerhoff, A.; Dev, N.; Hildreth, M.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kellams, N.; Lannon, K.; Lynch, S.; Marinelli, N.; Meng, F.; Mueller, C.; Musienko, Y.; Pearson, T.; Planer, M.; Reinsvold, A.; Ruchti, R.; Smith, G.; Taroni, S.; Valls, N.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A.; Antonelli, L.; Brinson, J.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Flowers, S.; Hart, A.; Hill, C.; Hughes, R.; Ji, W.; Kotov, K.; Ling, T. Y.; Liu, B.; Luo, W.; Puigh, D.; Rodenburg, M.; Winer, B. L.; Wulsin, H. W.; Driga, O.; Elmer, P.; Hardenbrook, J.; Hebda, P.; Koay, S. A.; Lujan, P.; Marlow, D.; Medvedeva, T.; Mooney, M.; Olsen, J.; Palmer, C.; Piroué, P.; Quan, X.; Saka, H.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Werner, J. S.; Zuranski, A.; Malik, S.; Barnes, V. E.; Benedetti, D.; Bortoletto, D.; Gutay, L.; Jha, M. K.; Jones, M.; Jung, K.; Kress, M.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Radburn-Smith, B. C.; Shi, X.; Shipsey, I.; Silvers, D.; Sun, J.; Svyatkovskiy, A.; Wang, F.; Xie, W.; Xu, L.; Parashar, N.; Stupak, J.; Adair, A.; Akgun, B.; Chen, Z.; Ecklund, K. M.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Guilbaud, M.; Li, W.; Michlin, B.; Northup, M.; Padley, B. P.; Redjimi, R.; Roberts, J.; Rorie, J.; Tu, Z.; Zabel, J.; Betchart, B.; Bodek, A.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Eshaq, Y.; Ferbel, T.; Galanti, M.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Goldenzweig, P.; Han, J.; Harel, A.; Hindrichs, O.; Khukhunaishvili, A.; Petrillo, G.; Verzetti, M.; Demortier, L.; Arora, S.; Barker, A.; Chou, J. P.; Contreras-Campana, C.; Contreras-Campana, E.; Duggan, D.; Ferencek, D.; Gershtein, Y.; Gray, R.; Halkiadakis, E.; Hidas, D.; Hughes, E.; Kaplan, S.; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, R.; Lath, A.; Nash, K.; Panwalkar, S.; Park, M.; Salur, S.; Schnetzer, S.; Sheffield, D.; Somalwar, S.; Stone, R.; Thomas, S.; Thomassen, P.; Walker, M.; Foerster, M.; Riley, G.; Rose, K.; Spanier, S.; York, A.; Bouhali, O.; Castaneda Hernandez, A.; Dalchenko, M.; de Mattia, M.; Delgado, A.; Dildick, S.; Eusebi, R.; Flanagan, W.; Gilmore, J.; Kamon, T.; Krutelyov, V.; Montalvo, R.; Mueller, R.; Osipenkov, I.; Pakhotin, Y.; Patel, R.; Perloff, A.; Roe, J.; Rose, A.; Safonov, A.; Tatarinov, A.; Ulmer, K. A.; Akchurin, N.; Cowden, C.; Damgov, J.; Dragoiu, C.; Dudero, P. R.; Faulkner, J.; Kunori, S.; Lamichhane, K.; Lee, S. W.; Libeiro, T.; Undleeb, S.; Volobouev, I.; Appelt, E.; Delannoy, A. G.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Janjam, R.; Johns, W.; Maguire, C.; Mao, Y.; Melo, A.; Ni, H.; Sheldon, P.; Snook, B.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Xu, Q.; Arenton, M. W.; Boutle, S.; Cox, B.; Francis, B.; Goodell, J.; Hirosky, R.; Ledovskoy, A.; Li, H.; Lin, C.; Neu, C.; Wolfe, E.; Wood, J.; Xia, F.; Clarke, C.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C.; Lamichhane, P.; Sturdy, J.; Belknap, D. A.; Carlsmith, D.; Cepeda, M.; Christian, A.; Dasu, S.; Dodd, L.; Duric, S.; Friis, E.; Gomber, B.; Grothe, M.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Klabbers, P.; Lanaro, A.; Levine, A.; Long, K.; Loveless, R.; Mohapatra, A.; Ojalvo, I.; Perry, T.; Pierro, G. A.; Polese, G.; Ross, I.; Ruggles, T.; Sarangi, T.; Savin, A.; Sharma, A.; Smith, N.; Smith, W. H.; Taylor, D.; Woods, N.

2016-08-01

The decorrelation in the azimuthal angle between the most forward and the most backward jets (Mueller-Navelet jets) is measured in data collected in pp collisions with the CMS detector at the LHC at √{s}=7 TeV. The measurement is presented in the form of distributions of azimuthal-angle differences, Δϕ, between the Mueller-Navelet jets, the average cosines of ( π - Δ ϕ), 2( π - Δ ϕ), and 3( π - Δ ϕ), and ratios of these cosines. The jets are required to have transverse momenta, p T, in excess of 35 GeV and rapidities, | y|, of less than 4.7. The results are presented as a function of the rapidity separation, Δ y, between the Mueller-Navelet jets, reaching Δ y up to 9.4 for the first time. The results are compared to predictions of various Monte Carlo event generators and to analytical predictions based on the DGLAP and BFKL parton evolution schemes. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Statistical-mechanical predictions and Navier-Stokes dynamics of two-dimensional flows on a bounded domain.

PubMed

Brands, H; Maassen, S R; Clercx, H J

1999-09-01

In this paper the applicability of a statistical-mechanical theory to freely decaying two-dimensional (2D) turbulence on a bounded domain is investigated. We consider an ensemble of direct numerical simulations in a square box with stress-free boundaries, with a Reynolds number that is of the same order as in experiments on 2D decaying Navier-Stokes turbulence. The results of these simulations are compared with the corresponding statistical equilibria, calculated from different stages of the evolution. It is shown that the statistical equilibria calculated from early times of the Navier-Stokes evolution do not correspond to the dynamical quasistationary states. At best, the global topological structure is correctly predicted from a relatively late time in the Navier-Stokes evolution, when the quasistationary state has almost been reached. This failure of the (basically inviscid) statistical-mechanical theory is related to viscous dissipation and net leakage of vorticity in the Navier-Stokes dynamics at moderate values of the Reynolds number.

High-precision simulation of the height distribution for the KPZ equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Alexander K.; Le Doussal, Pierre; Majumdar, Satya N.; Rosso, Alberto; Schehr, Gregory

2018-03-01

The one-point distribution of the height for the continuum Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation is determined numerically using the mapping to the directed polymer in a random potential at high temperature. Using an importance sampling approach, the distribution is obtained over a large range of values, down to a probability density as small as 10-1000 in the tails. Both short and long times are investigated and compared with recent analytical predictions for the large-deviation forms of the probability of rare fluctuations. At short times the agreement with the analytical expression is spectacular. We observe that the far left and right tails, with exponents 5/2 and 3/2, respectively, are preserved also in the region of long times. We present some evidence for the predicted non-trivial crossover in the left tail from the 5/2 tail exponent to the cubic tail of the Tracy-Widom distribution, although the details of the full scaling form remain beyond reach.

Azimuthal decorrelation of jets widely separated in rapidity in pp collisions at $$\\sqrt{s} =$$ 7 TeV

DOE PAGES

Khachatryan, Vardan

2016-08-24

The decorrelation in the azimuthal angle between the most forward and the most backward jets (Mueller-Navelet jets) is measured in data collected in pp collisions with the CMS detector at the LHC atmore » $$\\sqrt{s} =$$ 7 TeV. The measurement is presented in the form of distributions of azimuthal-angle differences, $$\\Delta\\phi$$, between the Mueller-Navelet jets, the average cosines of $$(\\pi-\\Delta\\phi)$$, $$2(\\pi-\\Delta\\phi)$$, and $$3(\\pi-\\Delta\\phi)$$, and ratios of these cosines. The jets are required to have transverse momenta, $$p_{\\mathrm{T}}$$, in excess of 35 GeV and rapidities, $| y |$, of less than 4.7. The results are presented as a function of the rapidity separation, $$\\Delta{y}$$, between the Mueller-Navelet jets, reaching $$\\Delta{y}$$ up to 9.4 for the first time. Lastly, the results are compared to predictions of various Monte Carlo event generators and to analytical predictions based on the DGLAP and BFKL parton evolution schemes.« less

Prediction in the Processing of Repair Disfluencies: Evidence from the Visual-World Paradigm

PubMed Central

Lowder, Matthew W.; Ferreira, Fernanda

2016-01-01

Two visual-world eye-tracking experiments investigated the role of prediction in the processing of repair disfluencies (e.g., The chef reached for some salt uh I mean some ketchup…). Experiment 1 showed that listeners were more likely to fixate a critical distractor item (e.g., pepper) during the processing of repair disfluencies compared to the processing of coordination structures (e.g., …some salt and also some ketchup…). Experiment 2 replicated the findings of Experiment 1 for disfluency versus coordination constructions and also showed that the pattern of fixations to the critical distractor for disfluency constructions was similar to the fixation patterns for sentences employing contrastive focus (e.g., …not some salt but rather some ketchup…). The results suggest that similar mechanisms underlie the processing of repair disfluencies and contrastive focus, with listeners generating sets of entities that stand in semantic contrast to the reparandum in the case of disfluencies or the negated entity in the case of contrastive focus. PMID:26866657

Azimuthal decorrelation of jets widely separated in rapidity in pp collisions at $$\\sqrt{s} =$$ 7 TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khachatryan, Vardan

The decorrelation in the azimuthal angle between the most forward and the most backward jets (Mueller-Navelet jets) is measured in data collected in pp collisions with the CMS detector at the LHC atmore » $$\\sqrt{s} =$$ 7 TeV. The measurement is presented in the form of distributions of azimuthal-angle differences, $$\\Delta\\phi$$, between the Mueller-Navelet jets, the average cosines of $$(\\pi-\\Delta\\phi)$$, $$2(\\pi-\\Delta\\phi)$$, and $$3(\\pi-\\Delta\\phi)$$, and ratios of these cosines. The jets are required to have transverse momenta, $$p_{\\mathrm{T}}$$, in excess of 35 GeV and rapidities, $| y |$, of less than 4.7. The results are presented as a function of the rapidity separation, $$\\Delta{y}$$, between the Mueller-Navelet jets, reaching $$\\Delta{y}$$ up to 9.4 for the first time. Lastly, the results are compared to predictions of various Monte Carlo event generators and to analytical predictions based on the DGLAP and BFKL parton evolution schemes.« less

Consistency of Post-Newtonian Waveforms with Numerical Relativity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John G.; vanMeter, James R.; McWilliams, Sean T.; Centrella, Joan; Kelly, Bernard J.

2007-01-01

General relativity predicts the gravitational radiation signatures of mergers of compact binaries,such as coalescing binary black hole systems. Derivations of waveform predictions for such systems are required for optimal scientific analysis of observational gravitational wave data, and have so far been achieved primarily with the aid of the post-Newtonian (PN) approximation. The quaIity of this treatment is unclear, however, for the important late inspiral portion. We derive late-inspiral wave forms via a complementary approach, direct numerical simulation of Einstein's equations, which has recently matured sufficiently for such applications. We compare waveform phasing from simulations covering the last approximately 14 cycles of gravitational radiation from an equal-mass binary system of nonspinning black holes with corresponding 3PN and 3.5PN waveforms. We find phasing agreement consistent with internal error estimates based in either approach, at the level of one radian over approximately 10 cycles. The result suggests that PN waveforms for this system are effective roughly until the system reaches its last stable orbit just prior to the final merger.

Consistency of Post-Newtonian Waveforms with Numerical Relativity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John G.; vanMeter, James R.; McWilliams, Sean T.; Cewntrella, Joan; Kelly, Bernard J.

2006-01-01

General relativity predicts the gravitational radiation signatures of mergers of compact binaries, such as coalescing binary black hole systems. Derivations of waveform predictions for such systems are required for optimal scientific analysis of observational gravitational wave data, and have so far been achieved primarily with the aid of the post-Newtonian (PN) approximation. The quality of this treatment is unclear, however, for the important late inspiral portion. We derive late-inspiral waveforms via a complementary approach, direct numerical simulation of Einstein's equations, which has recently matured sufficiently for such applications. We compare waveform phasing from simulations covering the last approximately 14 cycles of gravitational radiation from an equal-mass binary system of nonspinning black holes with the corresponding 3PN and 3.5PN orbital phasing. We find agreement consistent with internal error estimates based on either approach at the level of one radian over approximately 10 cycles. The result suggests that PN waveforms for this system are effective roughly until the system reaches its last stable orbit just prior to the final merger/

A compound reconstructed prediction model for nonstationary climate processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Geli; Yang, Peicai

2005-07-01

Based on the idea of climate hierarchy and the theory of state space reconstruction, a local approximation prediction model with the compound structure is built for predicting some nonstationary climate process. By means of this model and the data sets consisting of north Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature, Asian zonal circulation index and monthly mean precipitation anomaly from 37 observation stations in the Inner Mongolia area of China (IMC), a regional prediction experiment for the winter precipitation of IMC is also carried out. When using the same sign ratio R between the prediction field and the actual field to measure the prediction accuracy, an averaged R of 63% given by 10 predictions samples is reached.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2018 with focus on colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Malvezzi, M; Carioli, G; Bertuccio, P; Boffetta, P; Levi, F; La Vecchia, C; Negri, E

2018-04-01

We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer. We obtained cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970-2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models. EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100 000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1 382 000 when compared with 1 333 362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100 000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012, +5.8%) and 94 500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92 700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100 000 men (-6.7%) and 9.2 in women (-7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose +2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392 300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s. We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and-above age 50 years-organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.

A Comprehensive Prediction Model of Hydraulic Extended-Reach Limit Considering the Allowable Range of Drilling Fluid Flow Rate in Horizontal Drilling.

PubMed

Li, Xin; Gao, Deli; Chen, Xuyue

2017-06-08

Hydraulic extended-reach limit (HERL) model of horizontal extended-reach well (ERW) can predict the maximum measured depth (MMD) of the horizontal ERW. The HERL refers to the well's MMD when drilling fluid cannot be normally circulated by drilling pump. Previous model analyzed the following two constraint conditions, drilling pump rated pressure and rated power. However, effects of the allowable range of drilling fluid flow rate (Q min  ≤ Q ≤ Q max ) were not considered. In this study, three cases of HERL model are proposed according to the relationship between allowable range of drilling fluid flow rate and rated flow rate of drilling pump (Q r ). A horizontal ERW is analyzed to predict its HERL, especially its horizontal-section limit (L h ). Results show that when Q min  ≤ Q r  ≤ Q max (Case I), L h depends both on horizontal-section limit based on rated pump pressure (L h1 ) and horizontal-section limit based on rated pump power (L h2 ); when Q min  < Q max  < Q r (Case II), L h is exclusively controlled by L h1 ; while L h is only determined by L h2 when Q r  < Q min  < Q max (Case III). Furthermore, L h1 first increases and then decreases with the increase in drilling fluid flow rate, while L h2 keeps decreasing as the drilling fluid flow rate increases. The comprehensive model provides a more accurate prediction on HERL.

Diversity and evolution of the emerging Pandoraviridae family.

PubMed

Legendre, Matthieu; Fabre, Elisabeth; Poirot, Olivier; Jeudy, Sandra; Lartigue, Audrey; Alempic, Jean-Marie; Beucher, Laure; Philippe, Nadège; Bertaux, Lionel; Christo-Foroux, Eugène; Labadie, Karine; Couté, Yohann; Abergel, Chantal; Claverie, Jean-Michel

2018-06-11

With DNA genomes reaching 2.5 Mb packed in particles of bacterium-like shape and dimension, the first two Acanthamoeba-infecting pandoraviruses remained up to now the most complex viruses since their discovery in 2013. Our isolation of three new strains from distant locations and environments is now used to perform the first comparative genomics analysis of the emerging worldwide-distributed Pandoraviridae family. Thorough annotation of the genomes combining transcriptomic, proteomic, and bioinformatic analyses reveals many non-coding transcripts and significantly reduces the former set of predicted protein-coding genes. Here we show that the pandoraviruses exhibit an open pan-genome, the enormous size of which is not adequately explained by gene duplications or horizontal transfers. As most of the strain-specific genes have no extant homolog and exhibit statistical features comparable to intergenic regions, we suggest that de novo gene creation could contribute to the evolution of the giant pandoravirus genomes.

Prediction in the Processing of Repair Disfluencies: Evidence from the Visual-World Paradigm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowder, Matthew W.; Ferreira, Fernanda

2016-01-01

Two visual-world eye-tracking experiments investigated the role of prediction in the processing of repair disfluencies (e.g., "The chef reached for some salt uh I mean some ketchup ..."). Experiment 1 showed that listeners were more likely to fixate a critical distractor item (e.g., "pepper") during the processing of repair…

Predicting energy savings attributed to daylighting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robbins, C. L.

1983-11-01

A method for estimating a building's energy savings attributable to daylighting by predicting the percentage of the year that the electric lighting system is not in use is described. This method depends upon the particular control stragegy chosen, a standard work year, and the amount of light (as a daylight factor, DF) reaching any given station in the building.

Estimation of pedestrian level UV exposure under trees

Treesearch

Richard H. Grant; Gordon M. Heisler; Wei Gao

2002-01-01

Trees influence the amount of solar UV radiation that reaches pedestrians. A three-dimensional model was developed to predict the ultraviolet-B (UV-B) irradiance fields in open-tree canopies where the spacing between trees is equal to or greater than the width of individual tree crowns. The model predicted the relative irradiance (fraction of above-canopy irradiance)...

Design and validation of low-cost assistive glove for hand assessment and therapy during activity of daily living-focused robotic stroke therapy.

PubMed

Nathan, Dominic E; Johnson, Michelle J; McGuire, John R

2009-01-01

Hand and arm impairment is common after stroke. Robotic stroke therapy will be more effective if hand and upper-arm training is integrated to help users practice reaching and grasping tasks. This article presents the design, development, and validation of a low-cost, functional electrical stimulation grasp-assistive glove for use with task-oriented robotic stroke therapy. Our glove measures grasp aperture while a user completes simple-to-complex real-life activities, and when combined with an integrated functional electrical stimulator, it assists in hand opening and closing. A key function is a new grasp-aperture prediction model, which uses the position of the end-effectors of two planar robots to define the distance between the thumb and index finger. We validated the accuracy and repeatability of the glove and its capability to assist in grasping. Results from five nondisabled subjects indicated that the glove is accurate and repeatable for both static hand-open and -closed tasks when compared with goniometric measures and for dynamic reach-to-grasp tasks when compared with motion analysis measures. Results from five subjects with stroke showed that with the glove, they could open their hands but without it could not. We present a glove that is a low-cost solution for in vivo grasp measurement and assistance.

Equilibrium 𝛽-limits in classical stellarators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loizu, J.; Hudson, S. R.; Nührenberg, C.; Geiger, J.; Helander, P.

2017-12-01

A numerical investigation is carried out to understand the equilibrium -limit in a classical stellarator. The stepped-pressure equilibrium code (Hudson et al., Phys. Plasmas, vol. 19 (11), 2012) is used in order to assess whether or not magnetic islands and stochastic field-lines can emerge at high . Two modes of operation are considered: a zero-net-current stellarator and a fixed-iota stellarator. Despite the fact that relaxation is allowed (Taylor, Rev. Mod. Phys., vol. 58 (3), 1986, pp. 741-763), the former is shown to maintain good flux surfaces up to the equilibrium -limit predicted by ideal-magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), above which a separatrix forms. The latter, which has no ideal equilibrium -limit, is shown to develop regions of magnetic islands and chaos at sufficiently high , thereby providing a `non-ideal -limit'. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the value of at which the Shafranov shift of the axis reaches a fraction of the minor radius follows in all cases the scaling laws predicted by ideal-MHD. We compare our results to the High-Beta-Stellarator theory of Freidberg (Ideal MHD, 2014, Cambridge University Press) and derive a new prediction for the non-ideal equilibrium -limit above which chaos emerges.

Model Predictive Control considering Reachable Range of Wheels for Leg / Wheel Mobile Robots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Naito; Nonaka, Kenichiro; Sekiguchi, Kazuma

2016-09-01

Obstacle avoidance is one of the important tasks for mobile robots. In this paper, we study obstacle avoidance control for mobile robots equipped with four legs comprised of three DoF SCARA leg/wheel mechanism, which enables the robot to change its shape adapting to environments. Our previous method achieves obstacle avoidance by model predictive control (MPC) considering obstacle size and lateral wheel positions. However, this method does not ensure existence of joint angles which achieves reference wheel positions calculated by MPC. In this study, we propose a model predictive control considering reachable mobile ranges of wheels positions by combining multiple linear constraints, where each reachable mobile range is approximated as a convex trapezoid. Thus, we achieve to formulate a MPC as a quadratic problem with linear constraints for nonlinear problem of longitudinal and lateral wheel position control. By optimization of MPC, the reference wheel positions are calculated, while each joint angle is determined by inverse kinematics. Considering reachable mobile ranges explicitly, the optimal joint angles are calculated, which enables wheels to reach the reference wheel positions. We verify its advantages by comparing the proposed method with the previous method through numerical simulations.

Two-point modeling of SOL losses of HHFW power in NSTX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kish, Ayden; Perkins, Rory; Ahn, Joon-Wook; Diallo, Ahmed; Gray, Travis; Hosea, Joel; Jaworski, Michael; Kramer, Gerrit; Leblanc, Benoit; Sabbagh, Steve

2017-10-01

High-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating is a heating and current-drive scheme on the National Spherical Torus eXperiment (NSTX) complimentary to neutral beam injection. Previous experiments suggest that a significant fraction, up to 50%, of the HHFW power is promptly lost to the scrape-off layer (SOL). Research indicates that the lost power reaches the divertor via wave propagation and is converted to a heat flux at the divertor through RF rectification rather than heating the SOL plasma at the midplane. This counter-intuitive hypothesis is investigated using a simplified two-point model, relating plasma parameters at the divertor to those at the midplane. Taking measurements at the divertor region of NSTX as input, this two-point model is used to predict midplane parameters, using the predicted heat flux as an indicator of power input to the SOL. These predictions are compared to measurements at the midplane to evaluate the extent to which they are consistent with experiment. This work was made possible by funding from the Department of Energy for the Summer Undergraduate Laboratory Internship (SULI) program. This work is supported by the US DOE Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Lower Quarter Y-Balance Test Scores and Lower Extremity Injury in NCAA Division I Athletes.

PubMed

Lai, Wilson C; Wang, Dean; Chen, James B; Vail, Jeremy; Rugg, Caitlin M; Hame, Sharon L

2017-08-01

Functional movement tests that are predictive of injury risk in National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) athletes are useful tools for sports medicine professionals. The Lower Quarter Y-Balance Test (YBT-LQ) measures single-leg balance and reach distances in 3 directions. To assess whether the YBT-LQ predicts the laterality and risk of sports-related lower extremity (LE) injury in NCAA athletes. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. The YBT-LQ was administered to 294 NCAA Division I athletes from 21 sports during preparticipation physical examinations at a single institution. Athletes were followed prospectively over the course of the corresponding season. Correlation analysis was performed between the laterality of reach asymmetry and composite scores (CS) versus the laterality of injury. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the optimal asymmetry cutoff score for YBT-LQ. A multivariate regression analysis adjusting for sex, sport type, body mass index, and history of prior LE surgery was performed to assess predictors of earlier and higher rates of injury. Neither the laterality of reach asymmetry nor the CS correlated with the laterality of injury. ROC analysis found optimal cutoff scores of 2, 9, and 3 cm for anterior, posteromedial, and posterolateral reach, respectively. All of these potential cutoff scores, along with a cutoff score of 4 cm used in the majority of prior studies, were associated with poor sensitivity and specificity. Furthermore, none of the asymmetric cutoff scores were associated with earlier or increased rate of injury in the multivariate analyses. YBT-LQ scores alone do not predict LE injury in this collegiate athlete population. Sports medicine professionals should be cautioned against using the YBT-LQ alone to screen for injury risk in collegiate athletes.

Trade-off Assessment of Simplified Routing Models for Short-Term Hydropower Reservoir Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issao Kuwajima, Julio; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvardo Montero, Rodolfo; Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Assis dos Reis, Alberto

2014-05-01

Short-term reservoir optimization, also referred to as model predictive control, integrates model-based forecasts and optimization algorithms to meet multiple management objectives such as water supply, navigation, hydroelectricity generation, environmental obligations and flood protection. It is a valuable decision support tool to handle water-stress conditions or flooding events, and supports decision makers to minimize their impact. If the reservoir management includes downstream control, for example for mitigation flood damages in inundation areas downstream of the operated dam, the flow routing between the dam and the downstream inundation area is of major importance. The unsteady open channel flow in river reaches can be described by the one-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. However, owing to the mathematical complexity of those equations, some simplifications may be required to speed up the computation within the optimization procedure. Another strategy to limit the model runtime is a schematization on a course computational grid. In particular the last measure can introduce significant numerical diffusion into the solution. This is a major drawback, in particular if the reservoir release has steep gradients which we often find in hydropower reservoirs. In this work, four different routing models are assessed concerning their implementation in the predictive control of the Três Marias Reservoir located at the Upper River São Francisco in Brazil: i) a fully dynamic model using the software package SOBEK; ii) a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model with Muskingum-Cunge routing for the flow reaches of interest, the MGB-IPH (Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas); iii) a reservoir routing approach; and iv) a diffusive wave model. The last two models are implemented in the RTC-Tool toolbox. The overall model accuracy between the simplified models in RTC-Tools (iii, iv) and the more sophisticated SOBEK model (i) are comparable, and a lower performance was assessed for the MGB model (ii). Whereas the SOBEK model is able to propagate sharp discharge gradient downstream, the diffusive wave model is damping these gradients significantly due to the course spatial schematization. In the reservoir routing model, which is also schematized on a course grid, we counteract this drawback by modeling parts of the river reach by advection. This results in an excellent ratio between model accuracy / robustness and computational effort making it the approach of choice from the predictive control perspective.

Automatically updating predictive modeling workflows support decision-making in drug design.

PubMed

Muegge, Ingo; Bentzien, Jörg; Mukherjee, Prasenjit; Hughes, Robert O

2016-09-01

Using predictive models for early decision-making in drug discovery has become standard practice. We suggest that model building needs to be automated with minimum input and low technical maintenance requirements. Models perform best when tailored to answering specific compound optimization related questions. If qualitative answers are required, 2-bin classification models are preferred. Integrating predictive modeling results with structural information stimulates better decision making. For in silico models supporting rapid structure-activity relationship cycles the performance deteriorates within weeks. Frequent automated updates of predictive models ensure best predictions. Consensus between multiple modeling approaches increases the prediction confidence. Combining qualified and nonqualified data optimally uses all available information. Dose predictions provide a holistic alternative to multiple individual property predictions for reaching complex decisions.

Kinematic markers dissociate error correction from sensorimotor realignment during prism adaptation.

PubMed

O'Shea, Jacinta; Gaveau, Valérie; Kandel, Matthieu; Koga, Kazuo; Susami, Kenji; Prablanc, Claude; Rossetti, Yves

2014-03-01

This study investigated the motor control mechanisms that enable healthy individuals to adapt their pointing movements during prism exposure to a rightward optical shift. In the prism adaptation literature, two processes are typically distinguished. Strategic motor adjustments are thought to drive the pattern of rapid endpoint error correction typically observed during the early stage of prism exposure. This is distinguished from so-called 'true sensorimotor realignment', normally measured with a different pointing task, at the end of prism exposure, which reveals a compensatory leftward 'prism after-effect'. Here, we tested whether each mode of motor compensation - strategic adjustments versus 'true sensorimotor realignment' - could be distinguished, by analyzing patterns of kinematic change during prism exposure. We hypothesized that fast feedforward versus slower feedback error corrective processes would map onto two distinct phases of the reach trajectory. Specifically, we predicted that feedforward adjustments would drive rapid compensation of the initial (acceleration) phase of the reach, resulting in the rapid reduction of endpoint errors typically observed early during prism exposure. By contrast, we expected visual-proprioceptive realignment to unfold more slowly and to reflect feedback influences during the terminal (deceleration) phase of the reach. The results confirmed these hypotheses. Rapid error reduction during the early stage of prism exposure was achieved by trial-by-trial adjustments of the motor plan, which were proportional to the endpoint error feedback from the previous trial. By contrast, compensation of the terminal reach phase unfolded slowly across the duration of prism exposure. Even after 100 trials of pointing through prisms, adaptation was incomplete, with participants continuing to exhibit a small rightward shift in both the reach endpoints and in the terminal phase of reach trajectories. Individual differences in the degree of adaptation of the terminal reach phase predicted the magnitude of prism after-effects. In summary, this study identifies distinct kinematic signatures of fast strategic versus slow sensorimotor realignment processes, which combine to adjust motor performance to compensate for a prismatic shift. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study

PubMed Central

Milli, Letizia; Giannotti, Fosca; Pedreschi, Dino

2017-01-01

Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don’t. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement. PMID:29216255

Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study.

PubMed

Rossetti, Giulio; Milli, Letizia; Giannotti, Fosca; Pedreschi, Dino

2017-01-01

Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don't. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement.

Prediction of traveltime and longitudinal dispersion in rivers and streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jobson, Harvey E.

1996-01-01

The possibility of a contaminant being accidentally or intentionally spilled upstream from a water supply is a constant concern to those diverting and using water from streams and rivers. Although many excellent models are available to estimate traveltime and dispersion, none can be used with confidence before calibration and verification to the particular river reach in question. Therefore, the availability of reliable input information is usually the weakest link in the chain of events needed to predict the rate of movement, dilution, and mixing of contaminants in rivers and streams. Measured tracer-response curves produced from the injection of a known quantity of soluble tracer provide an efficient method of obtaining the necessary data. The purpose of this report is to use previously presented concepts along with extensive data collected on time of travel and dispersion to provide guidance to water-resources managers and planners in responding to spills. This is done by providing methods to estimate (1) the rate of movement of a contaminant through a river reach, (2) the rate of attenuation of the peak concentration of a conservative contaminant with time, and (3) the length of time required for the contaminant plume to pass a point in the river. Although the accuracy of the predictions can be greatly increased by performing time-oftravel studies on the river reach in question, the emphasis of this report is on providing methods for making estimates where few data are available. Results from rivers of all sizes can be combined by defining the unit concentration as that concentration of a conservative pollutant that would result from injecting a unit of mass into a unit of flow. Unit-peak concentrations are compiled for more than 60 different rivers representing a wide range of sizes, slopes, and geomorphic types. Analyses of these data indicate that the unitpeak concentration is well correlated with the time required for a pollutant cloud to reach a specific point in the river. The variance among different rivers is, of course, larger than for a specific river reach. Other river characteristics that were compiled and included in the correlation included the drainage area, the reach slope, the mean annual discharge, and the discharge at the time of the measurement. The most significant other variable in the correlation was the ratio of the river discharge to mean annual discharge. The prediction of the traveltime is more difficult than the prediction of unit-peak concentration; but the logarithm of stream velocity can be assumed to be linearly correlated with the logarithm of discharge. More than 980 subreaches for about 90 different rivers were analyzed and prediction equations were developed based on the drainage area, the reach slope, the mean annual discharge, and the discharge at the time of the measurement. The highest probable velocity, which will result in the highest concentration, is usually of concern after an accidental spill. Therefore, an envelope curve for which more than 99 percent of the velocities were smaller was developed to address this concern. The time of arrival of the leading edge of the pollutant indicates when a problem will first exist and defines the overall shape of the tracer-response function. The traveltime of the leading edge is generally about 89 percent of the traveltime to the peak concentration. The area under a tracer-response function (a known value when unit concentrations are used) can be closely approximated as the area under a triangle with a height of the peak concentration and a base extending from the leading edge to a point where the concentration has reduced to 1C percent of the peak. Knowing the time of the leading edge and the peak, the peak concentration, and the time when the response function has reduced to 10 percent of its peak value allows the complete response function to be sketched with fair accuracy. Four example applications are included to illustrate how the prediction equations developed in this report can be used either to calibrate a mathematical model or to make predictions directly.

QSAR classification models for the prediction of endocrine disrupting activity of brominated flame retardants.

PubMed

Kovarich, Simona; Papa, Ester; Gramatica, Paola

2011-06-15

The identification of potential endocrine disrupting (ED) chemicals is an important task for the scientific community due to their diffusion in the environment; the production and use of such compounds will be strictly regulated through the authorization process of the REACH regulation. To overcome the problem of insufficient experimental data, the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approach is applied to predict the ED activity of new chemicals. In the present study QSAR classification models are developed, according to the OECD principles, to predict the ED potency for a class of emerging ubiquitary pollutants, viz. brominated flame retardants (BFRs). Different endpoints related to ED activity (i.e. aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonism and antagonism, estrogen receptor agonism and antagonism, androgen and progesterone receptor antagonism, T4-TTR competition, E2SULT inhibition) are modeled using the k-NN classification method. The best models are selected by maximizing the sensitivity and external predictive ability. We propose simple QSARs (based on few descriptors) characterized by internal stability, good predictive power and with a verified applicability domain. These models are simple tools that are applicable to screen BFRs in relation to their ED activity, and also to design safer alternatives, in agreement with the requirements of REACH regulation at the authorization step. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated detection of brain atrophy patterns based on MRI for the prediction of Alzheimer's disease

PubMed Central

Plant, Claudia; Teipel, Stefan J.; Oswald, Annahita; Böhm, Christian; Meindl, Thomas; Mourao-Miranda, Janaina; Bokde, Arun W.; Hampel, Harald; Ewers, Michael

2010-01-01

Subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) have an increased risk to develop Alzheimer's disease (AD). Voxel-based MRI studies have demonstrated that widely distributed cortical and subcortical brain areas show atrophic changes in MCI, preceding the onset of AD-type dementia. Here we developed a novel data mining framework in combination with three different classifiers including support vector machine (SVM), Bayes statistics, and voting feature intervals (VFI) to derive a quantitative index of pattern matching for the prediction of the conversion from MCI to AD. MRI was collected in 32 AD patients, 24 MCI subjects and 18 healthy controls (HC). Nine out of 24 MCI subjects converted to AD after an average follow-up interval of 2.5 years. Using feature selection algorithms, brain regions showing the highest accuracy for the discrimination between AD and HC were identified, reaching a classification accuracy of up to 92%. The extracted AD clusters were used as a search region to extract those brain areas that are predictive of conversion to AD within MCI subjects. The most predictive brain areas included the anterior cingulate gyrus and orbitofrontal cortex. The best prediction accuracy, which was cross-validated via train-and-test, was 75% for the prediction of the conversion from MCI to AD. The present results suggest that novel multivariate methods of pattern matching reach a clinically relevant accuracy for the a priori prediction of the progression from MCI to AD. PMID:19961938

Predicting drug side-effect profiles: a chemical fragment-based approach

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Drug side-effects, or adverse drug reactions, have become a major public health concern. It is one of the main causes of failure in the process of drug development, and of drug withdrawal once they have reached the market. Therefore, in silico prediction of potential side-effects early in the drug discovery process, before reaching the clinical stages, is of great interest to improve this long and expensive process and to provide new efficient and safe therapies for patients. Results In the present work, we propose a new method to predict potential side-effects of drug candidate molecules based on their chemical structures, applicable on large molecular databanks. A unique feature of the proposed method is its ability to extract correlated sets of chemical substructures (or chemical fragments) and side-effects. This is made possible using sparse canonical correlation analysis (SCCA). In the results, we show the usefulness of the proposed method by predicting 1385 side-effects in the SIDER database from the chemical structures of 888 approved drugs. These predictions are performed with simultaneous extraction of correlated ensembles formed by a set of chemical substructures shared by drugs that are likely to have a set of side-effects. We also conduct a comprehensive side-effect prediction for many uncharacterized drug molecules stored in DrugBank, and were able to confirm interesting predictions using independent source of information. Conclusions The proposed method is expected to be useful in various stages of the drug development process. PMID:21586169

Ecosystem engineering by invasive exotic beavers reduces in-stream diversity and enhances ecosystem function in Cape Horn, Chile.

PubMed

Anderson, Christopher B; Rosemond, Amy D

2007-11-01

Species invasions are of global significance, but predicting their impacts can be difficult. Introduced ecosystem engineers, however, provide an opportunity to test the underlying mechanisms that may be common to all invasive engineers and link relationships between changes in diversity and ecosystem function, thereby providing explanatory power for observed ecological patterns. Here we test specific predictions for an invasive ecosystem engineer by quantifying the impacts of habitat and resource modifications caused by North American beavers (Castor canadensis) on aquatic macroinvertebrate community structure and stream ecosystem function in the Cape Horn Biosphere Reserve, Chile. We compared responses to beavers in three habitat types: (1) forested (unimpacted) stream reaches, (2) beaver ponds, and (3) sites immediately downstream of beaver dams in four streams. We found that beaver engineering in ponds created taxonomically simplified, but more productive, benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages. Specifically, macroinvertebrate richness, diversity and number of functional feeding groups were reduced by half, while abundance, biomass and secondary production increased three- to fivefold in beaver ponds compared to forested sites. Reaches downstream of beaver ponds were very similar to natural forested sections. Beaver invasion effects on both community and ecosystem parameters occurred predominantly via increased retention of fine particulate organic matter, which was associated with reduced macroinvertebrate richness and diversity (via homogenization of benthic microhabitat) and increased macroinvertebrate biomass and production (via greater food availability). Beaver modifications to macroinvertebrate community structure were largely confined to ponds, but increased benthic production in beaver-modified habitats adds to energy retention and flow for the entire stream ecosystem. Furthermore, the effects of beavers on taxa richness (negative) and measures of macroinvertebrate biomass (positive) were inversely related. Thus, while a generally positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem function has been found in a variety of systems, this work shows how they can be decoupled by responding to alterative mechanisms.

Post audit of a numerical prediction of wellfield drawdown in a semiconfined aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, M.; Langevin, C.

1999-01-01

A numerical ground water flow model was created in 1978 and revised in 1981 to predict the drawdown effects of a proposed municipal wellfield permitted to withdraw 30 million gallons per day (mgd; 1.1 x 105 m3/day) of water from the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer system. The predictions are based on the assumption that water levels in the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer reach a long-term, steady-state condition within a few days of initiation of pumping. Using this assumption, a 75 day simulation without water table recharge, pumping at the maximum permitted rates, was considered to represent a worst-case condition and the greatest drawdowns that could be experienced during wellfield operation. This method of predicting wellfield effects was accepted by the permitting agency. For this post audit, observed drawdowns were derived by taking the difference between pre-pumping and post-pumping potentiometric surface levels. Comparison of predicted and observed drawdowns suggests that actual drawdown over a 12 year period exceeds predicted drawdown by a factor of two or more. Analysis of the source of error in the 1981 predictions suggests that the values used for transmissivity, storativity, specific yield, and leakance are reasonable at the wellfield scale. Simulation using actual 1980-1992 pumping rates improves the agreement between predicted and observed drawdowns. The principal source of error is the assumption that water levels in a semiconfined aquifer achieve a steady-state condition after a few days or weeks of pumping. Simulations using a version of the 1981 model modified to include recharge and evapotranspiration suggest that it can take hundreds of days or several years for water levels in the linked Surficial and Floridan Aquifers to reach an apparent steady-state condition, and that slow declines in levels continue for years after the initiation of pumping. While the 1981 'impact' model can be used for reasonably predicting short-term, wellfield-scale effects of pumping, using a 75 day long simulation without recharge to predict the long-term behavior of the wellfield was an inappropriate application, resulting in significant underprediction of wellfield effects.A numerical ground water flow model was created in 1978 and revised in 1981 to predict the drawdown effects of a proposed municipal wellfield permitted to withdraw 30 million gallons per day (mgd; 1.1??105 m3/day) of water from the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer system. The predictions are based on the assumption that water levels in the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer reach a long-term, steady-state condition within a few days of initiation of pumping. Using this assumption, a 75 day simulation without water table recharge, pumping at the maximum permitted rates, was considered to represent a worst-case condition and the greatest drawdowns that could be experienced during wellfield operation. This method of predicting wellfield effects was accepted by the permitting agency. For this post audit, observed drawdowns were derived by taking the difference between pre-pumping and post-pumping potentiometric surface levels. Comparison of predicted and observed drawdowns suggests that actual drawdown over a 12 year period exceeds predicted drawdown by a factor of two or more. Analysis of the source of error in the 1981 predictions suggests that the values used for transmissivity, storativity, specific yield, and leakance are reasonable at the wellfield scale. Simulation using actual 1980-1992 pumping rates improves the agreement between predicted and observed drawdowns. The principal source of error is the assumption that water levels in a semiconfined aquifer achieve a steady-state condition after a few days or weeks of pumping. Simulations using a version of the 1981 model modified to include recharge and evapotranspiration suggest that it can take hundreds of days or several years for water levels in the linked Surficial and Floridan Aquifers to reach an apparent stead

Predicting Fire Severity and Hydrogeomorphic Effects for Wildland Fire Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyde, K.; Woods, S. W.; Calkin, D.; Ryan, K.; Keane, R.

2007-12-01

The Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) uses the Fire Spread Probability (FSPro) model to predict the spatial extent of fire, and to assess values-at-risk within probable spread zones. This information is used to support Appropriate Management Response (AMR), which involves decision making regarding fire-fighter deployment, fire suppression requirements, and identification of areas where fire may be safely permitted to take its course. Current WFDSS assessments are generally limited to a binary prediction of whether or not a fire will reach a given location and an assessment of the infrastructure which may be damaged or destroyed by fire. However, an emerging challenge is to expand the capabilities of WFDSS so that it also estimates the probable fire severity, and hence the effect on soil, vegetation and on hydrologic and geomorphic processes such as runoff and soil erosion. We present a conceptual framework within which derivatives of predictive fire modelling are used to predict impacts upon vegetation and soil, from which fire severity and probable post-fire watershed response can be inferred, before a fire actually occurs. Fire severity predictions are validated using Burned Area Reflectance Classification imagery. Recent tests indicate that satellite derived BARC images are a simple and effective means to predict post-fire erosion response based on relative vegetation disturbance. A fire severity prediction which reasonably approximates a BARC image may therefore be used to assess post-fire erosion and flood potential before fire reaches an area. This information may provide a new avenue of reliable support for fire management decisions.

Children's Visual Processing of Egocentric Cues in Action Planning for Reach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cordova, Alberto; Gabbard, Carl

2011-01-01

In this study the authors examined children's ability to code visual information into an egocentric frame of reference for planning reach movements. Children and adults estimated reach distance via motor imagery in immediate and response-delay conditions. Actual maximum reach was compared to estimates in multiple locations in peripersonal and…

Assessing Restoration Effects on River Hydromorphology Using the Process-based Morphological Quality Index in Eight European River Reaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belletti, B.; Nardi, L.; Rinaldi, M.; Poppe, M.; Brabec, K.; Bussettini, M.; Comiti, F.; Gielczewski, M.; Golfieri, B.; Hellsten, S.; Kail, J.; Marchese, E.; Marcinkowski, P.; Okruszko, T.; Paillex, A.; Schirmer, M.; Stelmaszczyk, M.; Surian, N.

2018-01-01

The Morphological Quality Index (MQI) and the Morphological Quality Index for monitoring (MQIm) have been applied to eight case studies across Europe with the objective of analyzing the hydromorphological response to various restoration measures and of comparing the results of the MQI and MQIm as a morphological assessment applied at the reach scale, with a conventional site scale physical-habitat assessment method. For each restored reach, the two indices were applied to the pre-restoration and post-restoration conditions. The restored reach was also compared to an adjacent, degraded reach. Results show that in all cases the restoration measures improved the morphological quality of the reach, but that the degree of improvement depends on many factors, including the initial morphological conditions, the length of the restored portion in relation to the reach length, and on the type of intervention. The comparison with a conventional site scale physical-habitat assessment method shows that the MQI and MQIm are best suited for the evaluation of restoration effects on river hydromorphology at the geomorphologically-relevant scale of the river reach.

Assessing Restoration Effects on River Hydromorphology Using the Process-based Morphological Quality Index in Eight European River Reaches.

PubMed

Belletti, B; Nardi, L; Rinaldi, M; Poppe, M; Brabec, K; Bussettini, M; Comiti, F; Gielczewski, M; Golfieri, B; Hellsten, S; Kail, J; Marchese, E; Marcinkowski, P; Okruszko, T; Paillex, A; Schirmer, M; Stelmaszczyk, M; Surian, N

2018-01-01

The Morphological Quality Index (MQI) and the Morphological Quality Index for monitoring (MQIm) have been applied to eight case studies across Europe with the objective of analyzing the hydromorphological response to various restoration measures and of comparing the results of the MQI and MQIm as a morphological assessment applied at the reach scale, with a conventional site scale physical-habitat assessment method. For each restored reach, the two indices were applied to the pre-restoration and post-restoration conditions. The restored reach was also compared to an adjacent, degraded reach. Results show that in all cases the restoration measures improved the morphological quality of the reach, but that the degree of improvement depends on many factors, including the initial morphological conditions, the length of the restored portion in relation to the reach length, and on the type of intervention. The comparison with a conventional site scale physical-habitat assessment method shows that the MQI and MQIm are best suited for the evaluation of restoration effects on river hydromorphology at the geomorphologically-relevant scale of the river reach.

HB06 : Field Validation of Realtime Predictions of Surfzone Waves and Currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guza, R. T.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Feddersen, F.

2006-12-01

California shorelines can be contaminated by the discharge of polluted streams and rivers onto the beach face or into the surf zone. Management decisions (for example, beach closures) can be assisted by accurate characterization of the waves and currents that transport and mix these pollutants. A real-time, operational waves and alongshore current model, developed for a 5 km alongshore reach at Huntington Beach (http://cdip.ucsd.edu/hb06/), will be tested for a month during Fall 2006 as part of the HB06 field experiment. The model has two components: prediction of incident waves immediately seaward of the surf zone, and the transformation of breaking waves across the surf zone. The California Safe Boating Network Model (O'Reilly et al., California World Ocean Conference, 2006) is used to estimate incident wave properties. This regional wave model accounts for blocking and refraction by offshore islands and shoals, and variation of the shoreline orientation. At Huntington Beach, the network model uses four buoys exposed to the deep ocean to estimate swell, and four nearby buoys to estimate locally generated seas. The model predictions will be compared with directional wave buoy observations in 22 m depth, 1 km from the shore. The computationally fast model for surfzone waves and breaking-wave driven alongshore currents, appropriate for random waves on beaches with simple bathymetry, is based on concepts developed and tested by Ed Thornton and his colleagues over the last 30 years. Modeled alongshore currents at Huntington Beach, with incident waves predicted by the Network model, will be compared with waves and currents observed during HB06 along a transect extending from 4 m depth to the shoreline. Support from the California Coastal Conservancy, NOAA, and ONR is gratefully acknowledged.

A Novel Computational Method for Detecting DNA Methylation Sites with DNA Sequence Information and Physicochemical Properties.

PubMed

Pan, Gaofeng; Jiang, Limin; Tang, Jijun; Guo, Fei

2018-02-08

DNA methylation is an important biochemical process, and it has a close connection with many types of cancer. Research about DNA methylation can help us to understand the regulation mechanism and epigenetic reprogramming. Therefore, it becomes very important to recognize the methylation sites in the DNA sequence. In the past several decades, many computational methods-especially machine learning methods-have been developed since the high-throughout sequencing technology became widely used in research and industry. In order to accurately identify whether or not a nucleotide residue is methylated under the specific DNA sequence context, we propose a novel method that overcomes the shortcomings of previous methods for predicting methylation sites. We use k -gram, multivariate mutual information, discrete wavelet transform, and pseudo amino acid composition to extract features, and train a sparse Bayesian learning model to do DNA methylation prediction. Five criteria-area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC), accuracy (ACC), sensitivity (SN), and specificity-are used to evaluate the prediction results of our method. On the benchmark dataset, we could reach 0.8632 on AUC, 0.8017 on ACC, 0.5558 on MCC, and 0.7268 on SN. Additionally, the best results on two scBS-seq profiled mouse embryonic stem cells datasets were 0.8896 and 0.9511 by AUC, respectively. When compared with other outstanding methods, our method surpassed them on the accuracy of prediction. The improvement of AUC by our method compared to other methods was at least 0.0399 . For the convenience of other researchers, our code has been uploaded to a file hosting service, and can be downloaded from: https://figshare.com/s/0697b692d802861282d3.

Evaluation of electropolished stainless steel electrodes for use in DC high voltage photoelectron guns

DOE PAGES

BastaniNejad, Mahzad; Elmustafa, Abdelmageed A.; Forman, Eric; ...

2015-07-01

DC high voltage photoelectron guns are used to produce polarized electron beams for accelerator-based nuclear and high-energy physics research. Low-level field emission (~nA) from the cathode electrode degrades the vacuum within the photogun and reduces the photoelectron yield of the delicate GaAs-based photocathode used to produce the electron beams. High-level field emission (>μA) can cause significant damage the photogun. To minimize field emission, stainless steel electrodes are typically diamond-paste polished, a labor-intensive process often yielding field emission performance with a high degree of variability, sample to sample. As an alternative approach and as comparative study, the performance of electrodes electropolishedmore » by conventional commercially available methods is presented. Our observations indicate the electropolished electrodes exhibited less field emission upon the initial application of high voltage, but showed less improvement with gas conditioning compared to the diamond-paste polished electrodes. In contrast, the diamond-paste polished electrodes responded favorably to gas conditioning, and ultimately reached higher voltages and field strengths without field emission, compared to electrodes that were only electropolished. The best performing electrode was one that was both diamond-paste polished and electropolished, reaching a field strength of 18.7 MV/m while generating less than 100 pA of field emission. The speculate that the combined processes were the most effective at reducing both large and small scale topography. However, surface science evaluation indicates topography cannot be the only relevant parameter when it comes to predicting field emission performance.« less

Evaluation of electropolished stainless steel electrodes for use in DC high voltage photoelectron guns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BastaniNejad, Mahzad; Elmustafa, Abdelmageed A.; Forman, Eric

DC high voltage photoelectron guns are used to produce polarized electron beams for accelerator-based nuclear and high-energy physics research. Low-level field emission (~nA) from the cathode electrode degrades the vacuum within the photogun and reduces the photoelectron yield of the delicate GaAs-based photocathode used to produce the electron beams. High-level field emission (>μA) can cause significant damage the photogun. To minimize field emission, stainless steel electrodes are typically diamond-paste polished, a labor-intensive process often yielding field emission performance with a high degree of variability, sample to sample. As an alternative approach and as comparative study, the performance of electrodes electropolishedmore » by conventional commercially available methods is presented. Our observations indicate the electropolished electrodes exhibited less field emission upon the initial application of high voltage, but showed less improvement with gas conditioning compared to the diamond-paste polished electrodes. In contrast, the diamond-paste polished electrodes responded favorably to gas conditioning, and ultimately reached higher voltages and field strengths without field emission, compared to electrodes that were only electropolished. The best performing electrode was one that was both diamond-paste polished and electropolished, reaching a field strength of 18.7 MV/m while generating less than 100 pA of field emission. The speculate that the combined processes were the most effective at reducing both large and small scale topography. However, surface science evaluation indicates topography cannot be the only relevant parameter when it comes to predicting field emission performance.« less

Evaluation of electropolished stainless steel electrodes for use in DC high voltage photoelectron guns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BastaniNejad, Mahzad, E-mail: Mahhzad@gmail.com; Elmustafa, Abdelmageed A.; Forman, Eric

DC high voltage photoelectron guns are used to produce polarized electron beams for accelerator-based nuclear and high-energy physics research. Low-level field emission (∼nA) from the cathode electrode degrades the vacuum within the photogun and reduces the photoelectron yield of the delicate GaAs-based photocathode used to produce the electron beams. High-level field emission (>μA) can cause significant damage the photogun. To minimize field emission, stainless steel electrodes are typically diamond-paste polished, a labor-intensive process often yielding field emission performance with a high degree of variability, sample to sample. As an alternative approach and as comparative study, the performance of electrodes electropolishedmore » by conventional commercially available methods is presented. Our observations indicate the electropolished electrodes exhibited less field emission upon the initial application of high voltage, but showed less improvement with gas conditioning compared to the diamond-paste polished electrodes. In contrast, the diamond-paste polished electrodes responded favorably to gas conditioning, and ultimately reached higher voltages and field strengths without field emission, compared to electrodes that were only electropolished. The best performing electrode was one that was both diamond-paste polished and electropolished, reaching a field strength of 18.7 MV/m while generating less than 100 pA of field emission. The authors speculate that the combined processes were the most effective at reducing both large and small scale topography. However, surface science evaluation indicates topography cannot be the only relevant parameter when it comes to predicting field emission performance.« less

National healthcare spending in the U.S. and Japan: national economic policy and implications for neurosurgery.

PubMed

Bean, James R

2005-01-01

Growth of national healthcare spending is a problem confronting national governments of all industrially advanced countries. Healthcare spending in the U.S. reached 13.9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2003, compared to only 8% in Japan. In the U.S., health insurance is voluntary, with 15% of the population uninsured. In Japan, health insurance is mandatory and virtually universal, with growth in national health costs about half the rate of growth in the U.S. U.S. healthcare costs are projected to reach 18.4% of GDP 2013. The predicted growth in health care costs is expected to cause strain on the federal budget and a growing inability of employers and employees to pay for private insurance. Different national policies are the reason for different national health care costs in the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. has higher healthcare prices for salaries, equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals as compared to Japan. Higher prices, higher service intensity and volume during hospitalization create higher total cost in the U.S. Price controls in Japan kept medical inflation low at 0.46%/yr from 1980-2000. Market-pricing mechanisms in the U.S. have proven ineffective in controlling national healthcare costs, while Japan's national fee and price control policies have kept national costs among the lowest within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. To guide insurance coverage policy, neurosurgery and other highly technical specialties should better define the comparative health benefit of high price technical services by prospective outcome studies.

Analysis of the High-Frequency Content in Human QRS Complexes by the Continuous Wavelet Transform: An Automatized Analysis for the Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death

PubMed Central

García Iglesias, Daniel; Roqueñi Gutiérrez, Nieves; De Cos, Francisco Javier; Calvo, David

2018-01-01

Background: Fragmentation and delayed potentials in the QRS signal of patients have been postulated as risk markers for Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD). The analysis of the high-frequency spectral content may be useful for quantification. Methods: Forty-two consecutive patients with prior history of SCD or malignant arrhythmias (patients) where compared with 120 healthy individuals (controls). The QRS complexes were extracted with a modified Pan-Tompkins algorithm and processed with the Continuous Wavelet Transform to analyze the high-frequency content (85–130 Hz). Results: Overall, the power of the high-frequency content was higher in patients compared with controls (170.9 vs. 47.3 103nV2Hz−1; p = 0.007), with a prolonged time to reach the maximal power (68.9 vs. 64.8 ms; p = 0.002). An analysis of the signal intensity (instantaneous average of cumulative power), revealed a distinct function between patients and controls. The total intensity was higher in patients compared with controls (137.1 vs. 39 103nV2Hz−1s−1; p = 0.001) and the time to reach the maximal intensity was also prolonged (88.7 vs. 82.1 ms; p < 0.001). Discussion: The high-frequency content of the QRS complexes was distinct between patients at risk of SCD and healthy controls. The wavelet transform is an efficient tool for spectral analysis of the QRS complexes that may contribute to stratification of risk. PMID:29439530

Exposure to MTV's global HIV prevention campaign in Kathmandu, Nepal; São Paulo, Brazil; and Dakar, Senegal.

PubMed

Geary, Cynthia Waszak; Burke, Holly McClain; Castelnau, Laure; Neupane, Shailes; Sall, Yacine Ba; Wong, Emily

2007-02-01

In 2002 MTV aired a global media campaign, "Staying Alive," to promote HIV prevention among 16- to 25-year-olds. Skeptics believed that a global MTV campaign would reach only a small group of elite young people. MTV increased access to its campaign, however, by making all materials "rights free" to third-party (non-MTV) broadcasters. Over 789 million households in over 166 countries had access to some or all of the campaign. To understand the level of actual exposure and the types of young people exposed, data were analyzed from population-based household surveys in three diverse urban areas where a campaign evaluation was conducted: Kathmandu, Nepal; São Paulo, Brazil and Dakar, Senegal. Exposure rates ranged from 12% in Kathmandu, 23% in São Paulo, and 82% in Dakar, reaching an estimated 32,000, 400,000, 220,000 16- to 25-year-olds in each city, respectively. A number of personal, social and economic characteristics found to predict campaign exposure were identified in each site; in general, these were related to economic status and use of "new" media technologies. Though this skew toward more exposure by those with greater resources existed, we found that the campaign audience was in no way composed only of "elite" young people. (For example, although more of those exposed to the campaign had used the Internet compared with those not exposed, this was not the majority of those exposed in most countries.) The possibility of reaching millions of young people through global networks with minimal marginal costs after production, creates a new paradigm for reaching an important segment of young people.

Drivers and Effects of Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction in the Karstic Lower Flint River Basin, Southwestern Georgia, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugel, K.; Golladay, S. W.; Jackson, C. R.; Rasmussen, T. C.; Dowd, J. F.; Mcdowell, R. J.

2017-12-01

Groundwater provides the majority of global water resources for domestic and agricultural usage while contributing vital surface water baseflows which support healthy aquatic ecosystems. Understanding the extent and magnitude of hydrologic connectivity between groundwater and surface water components in karst watersheds is essential to the prudent management of these hydraulically-interactive systems. We examined groundwater and surface water connectivity between the Upper Floridan Aquifer (UFA) and streams in the Lower Flint River Basin (LFRB) in southwestern Georgia where development of agricultural irrigation intensified over the past 30 years. An analysis of USGS streamflow data for the pre- and post-irrigation period showed summer baseflows in some Lower Flint River tributaries were reduced by an order of magnitude in the post-irrigation period, reiterating the strong hydraulic connection between these streams and the underlying aquifer. Large and fine-scale monitoring of calcium, nitrate, specific conductance and stable isotopes (δ18O and δD) on 50 km of Ichawaynochaway Creek, a major tributary of the Lower Flint, detected discrete groundwater-surface water flow paths which accounted for 42% of total groundwater contributions in the 50 km study reach. This presentation will highlight a new analysis using the metadata EPA Reach File (1) and comparing stream reach and instream bedrock joint azimuths with stream geochemical results from previous field study. Our findings suggested that reaches with NNW bearing may be more likely to display enhanced groundwater-surface water connectivity. Our results show that local heterogeneity can significantly affect water budgets and quality within these watersheds, making the use of geomorphological stream attributes a valuable tool to water resource management for the prediction and protection of vulnerable regions of hydrologic connectivity in karst catchments.

Reach-to-grasp movement as a minimization process.

PubMed

Yang, Fang; Feldman, Anatol G

2010-02-01

It is known that hand transport and grasping are functionally different but spatially coordinated components of reach-to-grasp (RTG) movements. As an extension of this notion, we suggested that body segments involved in RTG movements are controlled as a coherent ensemble by a global minimization process associated with the necessity for the hand to reach the motor goal. Different RTG components emerge following this process without pre-programming. Specifically, the minimization process may result from the tendency of neuromuscular elements to diminish the spatial gap between the actual arm-hand configuration and its virtual (referent) configuration specified by the brain. The referent configuration is specified depending on the object shape, localization, and orientation. Since the minimization process is gradual, it can be interrupted and resumed following mechanical perturbations, at any phase during RTG movements, including hand closure. To test this prediction of the minimization hypothesis, we asked subjects to reach and grasp a cube placed within the reach of the arm. Vision was prevented during movement until the hand returned to its initial position. As predicted, by arresting wrist motion at different points of hand transport in randomly selected trials, it was possible to halt changes in hand aperture at any phase, not only during hand opening but also during hand closure. Aperture changes resumed soon after the wrist was released. Another test of the minimization hypothesis was made in RTG movements to an object placed beyond the reach of the arm. It has previously been shown (Rossi et al. in J Physiol 538:659-671, 2002) that in such movements, the trunk motion begins to contribute to hand transport only after a critical phase when the shifts in the referent arm configuration have finished (at about the time when hand velocity is maximal). The minimization rule suggests that when the virtual contribution of the arm to hand transport is completed, guidance of hand aperture switches from the arm to the trunk control system. As a consequence, hand aperture changes can be halted by trunk arrests but only if they are prolonged beyond a critical phase. As predicted, hand transport and hand aperture in RTG movements beyond the reach of the arm were halted by trunk arrests only if they were prolonged beyond the time of peak hand velocity. Hand motion and aperture changes resumed only when the trunk was released. While supporting the minimization hypothesis, our findings imply that not only spatial but also temporal characteristics of each component, including the shortest, hand closure component of RTG movements, are controlled in a flexible, task-specific way.

Influence of diurnal variations in stream temperature on streamflow loss and groundwater recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, Jim; Thomas, Carole L.; Zellweger, Gary W.

1994-01-01

We demonstrate that for losing reaches with significant diurnal variations in stream temperature, the effect of stream temperature on streambed seepage is a major factor contributing to reduced afternoon streamflows. An explanation is based on the effect of stream temperature on the hydraulic conductivity of the streambed, which can be expected to double in the 0° to 25°C temperature range. Results are presented for field experiments in which stream discharge and temperature were continuously measured for several days over losing reaches at St. Kevin Gulch, Colorado, and Tijeras Arroyo, New Mexico. At St. Kevin Gulch in July 1991, the diurnal stream temperature in the 160-m study reach ranged from about 4° to 18°C, discharges ranged from 10 to 18 L/s, and streamflow loss in the study reach ranged from 2.7 to 3.7 L/s. On the basis of measured stream temperature variations, the predicted change in conductivity was about 38%; the measured change in stream loss was about 26%, suggesting that streambed temperature varied less than the stream temperature. At Tijeras Arroyo in May 1992, diurnal stream temperature in the 655-m study reach ranged from about 10° to 25°C and discharge ranged from 25 to 55 L/s. Streamflow loss was converted to infiltration rates by factoring in the changing stream reach surface area and streamflow losses due to evaporation rates as measured in a hemispherical evaporation chamber. Infiltration rates ranged from about 0.7 to 2.0 m/d, depending on time and location. Based on measured stream temperature variations, the predicted change in conductivity was 29%; the measured change in infiltration was also about 27%. This suggests that high infiltration rates cause rapid convection of heat to the streambed. Evapotranspiration losses were estimated for the reach and adjacent flood plain within the arroyo. On the basis of these estimates, only about 5% of flow loss was consumed via stream evaporation and stream-side evapotranspiration, indicating that 95% of the loss within the study reach represented groundwater recharge.

Identification of vascular patients at very high risk for recurrent cardiovascular events: validation of the current ACC/AHA very high risk criteria.

PubMed

van den Berg, M Johanneke; Bhatt, Deepak L; Kappelle, L Jaap; de Borst, Gert J; Cramer, Maarten J; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Steg, Ph Gabriel; Visseren, Frank L J

2017-11-14

To validate and assess performance of the current ACC/AHA very high risk criteria in patients with clinically manifest arterial disease. Data were used from the SMART study (n = 7216) and REACH Registry (n = 48 322), two prospective cohorts of patients with manifest atherosclerotic arterial disease. Prevalence and incidence rates of recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were calculated, according to the ACC/AHA VHR criteria (cardiovascular disease combined with diabetes, smoking, dyslipidaemia, and/or recent recurrent coronary events). Performance of the ACC/AHA criteria was compared with single very high risk factors in terms of C-statistics and Net Reclassification Index. All patients were at VHR according to the ESC guidelines (incidence of recurrent MACE in SMART was 2.4/100PY, with 95% CI 2.3-2.5/100PY and in REACH 5.1/100PY with 95% CI 5.0-5.3/100PY). In SMART 57% of the patients were at VHR according to the ACC/AHA criteria (incidence of recurrent MACE 2.7/100PY, 95% CI 2.5-2.9/100PY) and in REACH this was 64% (5.9/100PY, 95% CI 5.7-6.1/100PY). The C-statistic for the ACC/AHA VHR criteria was 0.53 in REACH and 0.54 in SMART. Very high risk factors with comparable or slightly better performance were eGFR < 45, polyvascular disease and age >70 years. Around two third of the patients meeting the ACC/AHA VHR criteria had a predicted 10-year risk of recurrent MACE <30%. The ACC/AHA VHR criteria have limited discriminative power. Identifying patients with clinically manifest arterial disease at VHR for recurrent vascular events using eGFR <45, polyvascular disease, or age >70 years performs as well as the ACC/AHA VHR criteria. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Shear wave velocity structure in the lithosphere and asthenosphere across the Southern California continent and Pacific plate margin using inversion of Rayleigh wave data from the ALBACORE project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, A. C.; Weeraratne, D. S.; Kohler, M. D.; Rathnayaka, S.; Escobar, L., Sr.

2015-12-01

The North American and Pacific plate boundary is a unique example of past subduction of an oceanic spreading center which has involved oceanic plate capture and inception of a continental transform boundary that juxtaposes continental and oceanic lithosphere on a single plate. The amphibious ALBACORE seismic project (Asthenospheric and Lithospheric Broadband Architecture from the California Offshore Region Experiment) deployed 34 ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) on 15-35 Ma seafloor and offers a unique opportunity to compare the LAB in continental and oceanic lithosphere in one seismic study. Rayleigh waves were recorded simultaneously by our offshore array and 82 CISN network land stations from 2010-2011. Here we predict phase velocities for a starting shear wave velocity model for each of 5 regions in our study area and compare to observed phase velocities from our array in a least-squares sense that produces the best fit 1-D shear wave velocity structure for each region. Preliminary results for the deep ocean (seafloor 25-32 Ma) indicates high velocities reaching 4.5 km/s at depths of 50 km associated with the lithosphere for seafloor 25-32 Ma. A negative velocity gradient is observed below this which reaches a minimum of 4.0 km/s at 160 km depth. The mid-ocean region (age 13-25 Ma) indicates a slightly lower magnitude and shallower LVZ. The Inner Borderland displays the highest lithospheric velocities offshore reaching 4.8 km/s at 40 km depth indicating underplating. The base of the LVZ in the Borderland increases sharply from 4.0 km/s to 4.5 km/s at 80-150 km depth indicating partial melt and compositional changes. The LVZ displays a very gradual positive velocity gradient in all other regions such as the deep seafloor and continent reaching 4.5 km/s at 300 km depth. The deep ocean, Borderlands, and continental region each have unique lithospheric velocities, LAB depths, and LVZ character that indicate stark differences in mantle structure that occur on a single plate as well as across the continental margin.

Serotonin Transporter-Linked Polymorphic Region (5-HTTLPR) Genotype and Stressful Life Events Interact to Predict Preschool-Onset Depression: A Replication and Developmental Extension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bogdan, Ryan; Agrawal, Arpana; Gaffrey, Michael S.; Tillman, Rebecca; Luby, Joan L.

2014-01-01

Background: Scientific enthusiasm about gene × environment interactions, spurred by the 5-HTTLPR (serotonin transporter-linked polymorphic region) × SLEs (stressful life events) interaction predicting depression, have recently been tempered by sober realizations of small effects and meta-analyses reaching opposing conclusions. These mixed findings…

Accuracy of Kindergarten Teachers' Predictions of Their Pupils' Subsequent Performance. Research Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Virgin, Albert E.; Shecter, H. E.

This study is part of a series of three studies related to the incidence and effects of grade repetition on elementary school children. The focus of this study was to determine whether kindergarten teachers are able to make accurate predictions about their pupils' general academic and reading achievement when they reach Grade 3. In the 1970/71…

Predicting energy savings attributed to daylighting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robbins, C. L.

1982-08-01

A method is described for estimating a building's energy savings attributed to daylighting by predicting the percentage of the year that the electric lighting system is not in use. This depends on the particular control strategy chosen, a standard work year, and the amount of light (as a daylight factor) reaching on daylight and sunlight availability for selected cities in the United States.

Boys with a simple delayed puberty reach their target height.

PubMed

Cools, B L M; Rooman, R; Op De Beeck, L; Du Caju, M V L

2008-01-01

Final height in boys with delayed puberty is thought to be below target height. This conclusion, however, is based on studies that included patients with genetic short stature. We therefore studied final height in a group of 33 untreated boys with delayed puberty with a target height >-1.5 SDS. Standing height, sitting height, weight and arm span width were measured in each patient. Final height was predicted by the method of Greulich and Pyle using the tables of Bailey and Pinneau for retarded boys at their bone age (PAH1) and the tables of Bailey and Pinneau for average boys plus six months (PAH2). Mean final height (175.8 +/- 6.5 cm) was appropriate for the mean target height (174.7 +/- 4.5 cm). The prediction method of Bailey and Pinneau overestimated the final height by 1.4 cm and the modified prediction method slightly underestimated the final height (-0.15 cm). Boys with untreated delayed puberty reach a final height appropriate for their target height. Final height was best predicted by the method of Bailey and Pinneau using the tables for average boys at their bone age plus six months. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

LCROSS Impact Conditions and Ejecta Evolution: Insight from Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermalyn, B.; Schultz, P. H.; Colaprete, A.

2009-12-01

The ejecta distribution resulting from an impact event reflects the impact conditions and target material properties. The Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) mission will provide a rare look at subsurface materials. The LCROSS impact will excavate regolith from a permanently shadowed crater on the south pole of the moon. The impactor, named the Earth-Departure-Upper-Stage (EDUS), will impact the surface at ~2.5km/s at an angle of greater than 80° from horizontal. The trailing Shepherding Spacecraft (SSc) will record the impact and take measurements of the ejecta in coordination with a comprehensive earth-based observational campaign. Prior studies have explored the predicted ejecta mass/velocity distribution and general ejecta dynamics through computational modeling (Korycansky, et al 2009) and scaling laws(Schultz, 2006, Heldmann et al 2007). At very early times, however, these models and scaling laws break down. It is this high-speed component of the ejected material that will reach the sunlight horizon first and will be recorded by the SSc. Thus to interpret the initial conditions of the impact from the LCROSS ejecta plume, the early-time ejecta distribution must be understood. A suite of impact experiments (performed at the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range, or AVGR) were designed to interpret LCROSS conditions. These experiments reveal that early in the cratering process, when the projectile is still coupling its energy and momentum to the target surface, ejection velocity is higher than predicted by dimensional scaling laws (Housen, et al 1983). Moreover, the ejection angles of this early-time component are initially lower than predicted, and sweep upward tens of degrees to reach nominal ejection angles (~45° for impacts into sand). Low-density projectiles (such as the EDUS) yield even lower ejection angles throughout much of crater growth, thereby indicating a shallower depth of coupling. An estimate of mass above a given height calculated from these experiments is a factor of ~10 less than predicted by methods above (Korycansky, et al 2009). Analysis of the LCROSS ejecta emergence and evolution, when compared with scaled experimental results, will provide an understanding of the impact conditions as well as constraints on the properties of the regolith.

Rapid sideline performance meets outpatient clinic: Results from a multidisciplinary concussion center registry.

PubMed

Kyle Harrold, G; Hasanaj, Lisena; Moehringer, Nicholas; Zhang, Isis; Nolan, Rachel; Serrano, Liliana; Raynowska, Jenelle; Rucker, Janet C; Flanagan, Steven R; Cardone, Dennis; Galetta, Steven L; Balcer, Laura J

2017-08-15

This study investigated the utility of sideline concussion tests, including components of the Sports Concussion Assessment Tool, 3rd Edition (SCAT3) and the King-Devick (K-D), a vision-based test of rapid number naming, in an outpatient, multidisciplinary concussion center treating patients with both sports-related and non-sports related concussions. The ability of these tests to predict clinical outcomes based on the scores at the initial visit was evaluated. Scores for components of the SCAT3 and the K-D were fit into regression models accounting for age, gender, and sport/non-sport etiology in order to predict clinical outcome measures including total number of visits to the concussion center, whether the patient reached a SCAT3 symptom severity score≤7, and the total types of referrals each patient received over their course. Patient characteristics, differences between those with sport and non-sport etiologies, and correlations between the tests were also analyzed. Among 426 patients with concussion, SCAT3 total symptom score and symptom severity score at the initial visit predicted each of the clinical outcome variables. K-D score at the initial visit predicted the total number of visits and the total number of referrals. Those with sports-related concussions were younger, had less severely-affected test scores, had fewer visits and types of referrals, and were more likely to have clinical resolution of their concussion and to reach a symptom severity score≤7. This large-scale study of concussion patients supports the use of sideline concussion tests as part of outpatient concussion assessment, especially the total symptom and symptom severity score portions of the SCAT3 and the K-D. Women in this cohort had higher total symptom and symptom severity scores compared to men. Our data also suggest that those with non-sports-related concussions have longer lasting symptoms than those with sports-related concussions, and that these two groups should perhaps be regarded separately when assessing outcomes and needs in a multidisciplinary setting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A critical evaluation of the 2011 ECHA reports on compliance with the REACH and CLP regulations and on the use of alternatives to testing on animals for compliance with the REACH regulation.

PubMed

Spielmann, Horst; Sauer, Ursula G; Mekenyan, Ovanes

2011-10-01

On 30 June 2011, the European Chemicals Agency published two reports, one on the functioning of the REACH system, the other on the use of alternatives to animal testing in compliance with that system. The data presented are based on information gained during the first registration period under the REACH system, which included high production volume chemicals and substances of very high concern, which have the most extensive information requirements. A total of 25,460 registration dossiers were received, covering 3,400 existing, so-called 'phase-in', substances, and 900 new, so-called 'non-phase-in', substances. Data sharing and the joint submission of data are reported to have worked successfully. In the registration dossiers for these substances, results from new animal tests were included for less than 1% of all the endpoints; testing proposals (required for 'higher-tier' information requirements) were submitted for 711 in vivo tests involving vertebrate animals. The registrants mainly used old, existing experimental data, or options for the adaptation (waiving) of information requirements, before collecting new information. For predicting substance toxicity, 'read-across' was the second most-used approach, followed by 'weight-of-evidence'. In vitro toxicity tests played a minor role, and were only used when the respective test methods had gained the status of regulatory acceptance. All in all, a successful start to the REACH programme was reported, particularly since, in contrast to most predictions, it did not contribute to a significant increase in toxicity testing in animals. 2011 FRAME.

Characterizing Ship Navigation Patterns Using Automatic Identification System (AIS) Data in the Baltic Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

in the Saint Petersburg area. We use three random forest models, that differ in their use of past information , to predict a vessels next port of visit...network where past information is used to more accurately predict the future state. The transitional probabilities change when predictor variables are...added that reach deeper into the past. Our findings suggest that successful prediction of the movement of a vessel depends on having accurate information on its recent history.

Predictive Model for the Meniscus-Guided Coating of High-Quality Organic Single-Crystalline Thin Films.

PubMed

Janneck, Robby; Vercesi, Federico; Heremans, Paul; Genoe, Jan; Rolin, Cedric

2016-09-01

A model that describes solvent evaporation dynamics in meniscus-guided coating techniques is developed. In combination with a single fitting parameter, it is shown that this formula can accurately predict a processing window for various coating conditions. Organic thin-film transistors (OTFTs), fabricated by a zone-casting setup, indeed show the best performance at the predicted coating speeds with mobilities reaching 7 cm 2 V -1 s -1 . © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Route Prediction on Tracking Data to Location-Based Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petróczi, Attila István; Gáspár-Papanek, Csaba

Wireless networks have become so widespread, it is beneficial to determine the ability of cellular networks for localization. This property enables the development of location-based services, providing useful information. These services can be improved by route prediction under the condition of using simple algorithms, because of the limited capabilities of mobile stations. This study gives alternative solutions for this problem of route prediction based on a specific graph model. Our models provide the opportunity to reach our destinations with less effort.

Combining transcription factor binding affinities with open-chromatin data for accurate gene expression prediction.

PubMed

Schmidt, Florian; Gasparoni, Nina; Gasparoni, Gilles; Gianmoena, Kathrin; Cadenas, Cristina; Polansky, Julia K; Ebert, Peter; Nordström, Karl; Barann, Matthias; Sinha, Anupam; Fröhler, Sebastian; Xiong, Jieyi; Dehghani Amirabad, Azim; Behjati Ardakani, Fatemeh; Hutter, Barbara; Zipprich, Gideon; Felder, Bärbel; Eils, Jürgen; Brors, Benedikt; Chen, Wei; Hengstler, Jan G; Hamann, Alf; Lengauer, Thomas; Rosenstiel, Philip; Walter, Jörn; Schulz, Marcel H

2017-01-09

The binding and contribution of transcription factors (TF) to cell specific gene expression is often deduced from open-chromatin measurements to avoid costly TF ChIP-seq assays. Thus, it is important to develop computational methods for accurate TF binding prediction in open-chromatin regions (OCRs). Here, we report a novel segmentation-based method, TEPIC, to predict TF binding by combining sets of OCRs with position weight matrices. TEPIC can be applied to various open-chromatin data, e.g. DNaseI-seq and NOMe-seq. Additionally, Histone-Marks (HMs) can be used to identify candidate TF binding sites. TEPIC computes TF affinities and uses open-chromatin/HM signal intensity as quantitative measures of TF binding strength. Using machine learning, we find low affinity binding sites to improve our ability to explain gene expression variability compared to the standard presence/absence classification of binding sites. Further, we show that both footprints and peaks capture essential TF binding events and lead to a good prediction performance. In our application, gene-based scores computed by TEPIC with one open-chromatin assay nearly reach the quality of several TF ChIP-seq data sets. Finally, these scores correctly predict known transcriptional regulators as illustrated by the application to novel DNaseI-seq and NOMe-seq data for primary human hepatocytes and CD4+ T-cells, respectively. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

A simple phenomenological model for grain clustering in turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, Philip F.

2016-01-01

We propose a simple model for density fluctuations of aerodynamic grains, embedded in a turbulent, gravitating gas disc. The model combines a calculation for the behaviour of a group of grains encountering a single turbulent eddy, with a hierarchical approximation of the eddy statistics. This makes analytic predictions for a range of quantities including: distributions of grain densities, power spectra and correlation functions of fluctuations, and maximum grain densities reached. We predict how these scale as a function of grain drag time ts, spatial scale, grain-to-gas mass ratio tilde{ρ }, strength of turbulence α, and detailed disc properties. We test these against numerical simulations with various turbulence-driving mechanisms. The simulations agree well with the predictions, spanning ts Ω ˜ 10-4-10, tilde{ρ }˜ 0{-}3, α ˜ 10-10-10-2. Results from `turbulent concentration' simulations and laboratory experiments are also predicted as a special case. Vortices on a wide range of scales disperse and concentrate grains hierarchically. For small grains this is most efficient in eddies with turnover time comparable to the stopping time, but fluctuations are also damped by local gas-grain drift. For large grains, shear and gravity lead to a much broader range of eddy scales driving fluctuations, with most power on the largest scales. The grain density distribution has a log-Poisson shape, with fluctuations for large grains up to factors ≳1000. We provide simple analytic expressions for the predictions, and discuss implications for planetesimal formation, grain growth, and the structure of turbulence.

Mixing of multiple metal vapours into an arc plasma in gas tungsten arc welding of stainless steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hunkwan; Trautmann, Marcus; Tanaka, Keigo; Tanaka, Manabu; Murphy, Anthony B.

2017-11-01

A computational model of the mixing of multiple metal vapours, formed by vaporization of the surface of an alloy workpiece, into the thermal arc plasma in gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW) is presented. The model incorporates the combined diffusion coefficient method extended to allow treatment of three gases, and is applied to treat the transport of both chromium and iron vapour in the helium arc plasma. In contrast to previous models of GTAW, which predict that metal vapours are swept away to the edge of the arc by the plasma flow, it is found that the metal vapours penetrate strongly into the arc plasma, reaching the cathode region. The predicted results are consistent with published measurements of the intensity of atomic line radiation from the metal vapours. The concentration of chromium vapour is predicted to be higher than that of iron vapour due to its larger vaporization rate. An accumulation of chromium vapour is predicted to occur on the cathode at about 1.5 mm from the cathode tip, in agreement with published measurements. The arc temperature is predicted to be strongly reduced due to the strong radiative emission from the metal vapours. The driving forces causing the diffusion of metal vapours into the helium arc are examined, and it is found that diffusion due to the applied electric field (cataphoresis) is dominant. This is explained in terms of large ionization energies and the small mass of helium compared to those of the metal vapours.

Simulating polar bear energetics during a seasonal fast using a mechanistic model.

PubMed

Mathewson, Paul D; Porter, Warren P

2013-01-01

In this study we tested the ability of a mechanistic model (Niche Mapper™) to accurately model adult, non-denning polar bear (Ursus maritimus) energetics while fasting during the ice-free season in the western Hudson Bay. The model uses a steady state heat balance approach, which calculates the metabolic rate that will allow an animal to maintain its core temperature in its particular microclimate conditions. Predicted weight loss for a 120 day fast typical of the 1990s was comparable to empirical studies of the population, and the model was able to reach a heat balance at the target metabolic rate for the entire fast, supporting use of the model to explore the impacts of climate change on polar bears. Niche Mapper predicted that all but the poorest condition bears would survive a 120 day fast under current climate conditions. When the fast extended to 180 days, Niche Mapper predicted mortality of up to 18% for males. Our results illustrate how environmental conditions, variation in animal properties, and thermoregulation processes may impact survival during extended fasts because polar bears were predicted to require additional energetic expenditure for thermoregulation during a 180 day fast. A uniform 3°C temperature increase reduced male mortality during a 180 day fast from 18% to 15%. Niche Mapper explicitly links an animal's energetics to environmental conditions and thus can be a valuable tool to help inform predictions of climate-related population changes. Since Niche Mapper is a generic model, it can make energetic predictions for other species threatened by climate change.

Simulating Polar Bear Energetics during a Seasonal Fast Using a Mechanistic Model

PubMed Central

Mathewson, Paul D.; Porter, Warren P.

2013-01-01

In this study we tested the ability of a mechanistic model (Niche Mapper™) to accurately model adult, non-denning polar bear (Ursus maritimus) energetics while fasting during the ice-free season in the western Hudson Bay. The model uses a steady state heat balance approach, which calculates the metabolic rate that will allow an animal to maintain its core temperature in its particular microclimate conditions. Predicted weight loss for a 120 day fast typical of the 1990s was comparable to empirical studies of the population, and the model was able to reach a heat balance at the target metabolic rate for the entire fast, supporting use of the model to explore the impacts of climate change on polar bears. Niche Mapper predicted that all but the poorest condition bears would survive a 120 day fast under current climate conditions. When the fast extended to 180 days, Niche Mapper predicted mortality of up to 18% for males. Our results illustrate how environmental conditions, variation in animal properties, and thermoregulation processes may impact survival during extended fasts because polar bears were predicted to require additional energetic expenditure for thermoregulation during a 180 day fast. A uniform 3°C temperature increase reduced male mortality during a 180 day fast from 18% to 15%. Niche Mapper explicitly links an animal’s energetics to environmental conditions and thus can be a valuable tool to help inform predictions of climate-related population changes. Since Niche Mapper is a generic model, it can make energetic predictions for other species threatened by climate change. PMID:24019883

A Regularized Deep Learning Approach for Clinical Risk Prediction of Acute Coronary Syndrome Using Electronic Health Records.

PubMed

Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong; Liu, Jiquan

2018-05-01

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), as a common and severe cardiovascular disease, is a leading cause of death and the principal cause of serious long-term disability globally. Clinical risk prediction of ACS is important for early intervention and treatment. Existing ACS risk scoring models are based mainly on a small set of hand-picked risk factors and often dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. This study develops a regularized stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE) model to stratify clinical risks of ACS patients from a large volume of electronic health records (EHR). To capture characteristics of patients at similar risk levels, and preserve the discriminating information across different risk levels, two constraints are added on SDAE to make the reconstructed feature representations contain more risk information of patients, which contribute to a better clinical risk prediction result. We validate our approach on a real clinical dataset consisting of 3464 ACS patient samples. The performance of our approach for predicting ACS risk remains robust and reaches 0.868 and 0.73 in terms of both AUC and accuracy, respectively. The obtained results show that the proposed approach achieves a competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art models in dealing with the clinical risk prediction problem. In addition, our approach can extract informative risk factors of ACS via a reconstructive learning strategy. Some of these extracted risk factors are not only consistent with existing medical domain knowledge, but also contain suggestive hypotheses that could be validated by further investigations in the medical domain.

Predicting available water of soil from particle-size distribution and bulk density in an oasis-desert transect in northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Danfeng; Gao, Guangyao; Shao, Ming'an; Fu, Bojie

2016-07-01

A detailed understanding of soil hydraulic properties, particularly the available water content of soil, (AW, cm3 cm-3), is required for optimal water management. Direct measurement of soil hydraulic properties is impractical for large scale application, but routinely available soil particle-size distribution (PSD) and bulk density can be used as proxies to develop various prediction functions. In this study, we compared the performance of the Arya and Paris (AP) model, Mohammadi and Vanclooster (MV) model, Arya and Heitman (AH) model, and Rosetta program in predicting the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) at 34 points with experimental SWCC data in an oasis-desert transect (20 × 5 km) in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. The idea of the three models emerges from the similarity of the shapes of the PSD and SWCC. The AP model, MV model, and Rosetta program performed better in predicting the SWCC than the AH model. The AW determined from the SWCCs predicted by the MV model agreed better with the experimental values than those derived from the AP model and Rosetta program. The fine-textured soils were characterized by higher AW values, while the sandy soils had lower AW values. The MV model has the advantages of having robust physical basis, being independent of database-related parameters, and involving subclasses of texture data. These features make it promising in predicting soil water retention at regional scales, serving for the application of hydrological models and the optimization of soil water management.

Macro-microscopic mass formulae and nuclear mass predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, G.; Guilbaud, M.; Onillon, A.

2010-12-01

Different mass formulae derived from the liquid drop model and the pairing and shell energies of the Thomas-Fermi model have been studied and compared. They include or not the diffuseness correction to the Coulomb energy, the charge exchange correction term, the curvature energy, different forms of the Wigner term and powers of the relative neutron excess I=(N-Z)/A. Their coefficients have been determined by a least square fitting procedure to 2027 experimental atomic masses (G. Audi et al. (2003) [1]). The Coulomb diffuseness correction Z/A term or the charge exchange correction Z/A term plays the main role to improve the accuracy of the mass formula. The Wigner term and the curvature energy can also be used separately but their coefficients are very unstable. The different fits lead to a surface energy coefficient of around 17-18 MeV. A large equivalent rms radius ( r=1.22-1.24 fm) or a shorter central radius may be used. An rms deviation of 0.54 MeV can be reached between the experimental and theoretical masses. The remaining differences come probably mainly from the determination of the shell and pairing energies. Mass predictions of selected expressions have been compared to 161 new experimental masses and the correct agreement allows to provide extrapolations to masses of 656 selected exotic nuclei.

How important is drinking water exposure for the risks of engineered nanoparticles to consumers?

PubMed

Tiede, Karen; Hanssen, Steffen Foss; Westerhoff, Paul; Fern, Gordon J; Hankin, Steven M; Aitken, Robert J; Chaudhry, Qasim; Boxall, Alistair B A

2016-01-01

This study explored the potential for engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) to contaminate the UK drinking water supplies and established the significance of the drinking water exposure route compared to other routes of human exposure. A review of the occurrence and quantities of ENPs in different product types on the UK market as well as release scenarios, their possible fate and behaviour in raw water and during drinking water treatment was performed. Based on the available data, all the ENPs which are likely to reach water sources were identified and categorized. Worst case concentrations of ENPs in raw water and treated drinking water, using a simple exposure model, were estimated and then qualitatively compared to available estimates for human exposure through other routes. A range of metal, metal oxide and organic-based ENPs were identified that have the potential to contaminate drinking waters. Worst case predicted concentrations in drinking waters were in the low- to sub-µg/l range and more realistic estimates were tens of ng/l or less. For the majority of product types, human exposure via drinking water was predicted to be less important than exposure via other routes. The exceptions were some clothing materials, paints and coatings and cleaning products containing Ag, Al, TiO2, Fe2O3 ENPs and carbon-based materials.

A hydrogeomorphic river network model predicts where and why hyporheic exchange is important in large basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Harvey, Judson

2014-01-01

Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data and by models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bed forms rather than lateral exchange through meanders dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along river corridors. Per kilometer, low-order streams have a biogeochemical potential at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than higher-order streams. However, when biogeochemical potential is examined per average length of each stream order, low- and high-order streams were often found to be comparable. As a result, the hyporheic zone's intrinsic potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across different stream orders, but the greater river miles and larger total streambed area of lower order streams result in the highest cumulative impact from low-order streams. Lateral exchange through meander banks may be important in some cases but generally only in large rivers.

A hydrogeomorphic river network model predicts where and why hyporheic exchange is important in large basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Harvey, Judson W.

2014-09-01

Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data and by models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bed forms rather than lateral exchange through meanders dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along river corridors. Per kilometer, low-order streams have a biogeochemical potential at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than higher-order streams. However, when biogeochemical potential is examined per average length of each stream order, low- and high-order streams were often found to be comparable. As a result, the hyporheic zone's intrinsic potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across different stream orders, but the greater river miles and larger total streambed area of lower order streams result in the highest cumulative impact from low-order streams. Lateral exchange through meander banks may be important in some cases but generally only in large rivers.

Predicting the hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence using search engine query data and climate variables: an ecological study in Guangdong, China.

PubMed

Du, Zhicheng; Xu, Lin; Zhang, Wangjian; Zhang, Dingmei; Yu, Shicheng; Hao, Yuantao

2017-10-06

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on the enhanced surveillance system, we aimed to explore whether the addition of temperate and search engine query data improves the risk prediction of HFMD. Ecological study. Information on the confirmed cases of HFMD, climate parameters and search engine query logs was collected. A total of 1.36 million HFMD cases were identified from the surveillance system during 2011-2014. Analyses were conducted at aggregate level and no confidential information was involved. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with external variables (ARIMAX) was used to predict the HFMD incidence from 2011 to 2014, taking into account temperature and search engine query data (Baidu Index, BDI). Statistics of goodness-of-fit and precision of prediction were used to compare models (1) based on surveillance data only, and with the addition of (2) temperature, (3) BDI, and (4) both temperature and BDI. A high correlation between HFMD incidence and BDI ( r =0.794, p<0.001) or temperature ( r =0.657, p<0.001) was observed using both time series plot and correlation matrix. A linear effect of BDI (without lag) and non-linear effect of temperature (1 week lag) on HFMD incidence were found in a distributed lag non-linear model. Compared with the model based on surveillance data only, the ARIMAX model including BDI reached the best goodness-of-fit with an Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of -345.332, whereas the model including both BDI and temperature had the most accurate prediction in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 101.745%. An ARIMAX model incorporating search engine query data significantly improved the prediction of HFMD. Further studies are warranted to examine whether including search engine query data also improves the prediction of other infectious diseases in other settings. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Predicting the hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence using search engine query data and climate variables: an ecological study in Guangdong, China

PubMed Central

Du, Zhicheng; Xu, Lin; Zhang, Wangjian; Zhang, Dingmei; Yu, Shicheng; Hao, Yuantao

2017-01-01

Objectives Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on the enhanced surveillance system, we aimed to explore whether the addition of temperate and search engine query data improves the risk prediction of HFMD. Design Ecological study. Setting and participants Information on the confirmed cases of HFMD, climate parameters and search engine query logs was collected. A total of 1.36 million HFMD cases were identified from the surveillance system during 2011–2014. Analyses were conducted at aggregate level and no confidential information was involved. Outcome measures A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with external variables (ARIMAX) was used to predict the HFMD incidence from 2011 to 2014, taking into account temperature and search engine query data (Baidu Index, BDI). Statistics of goodness-of-fit and precision of prediction were used to compare models (1) based on surveillance data only, and with the addition of (2) temperature, (3) BDI, and (4) both temperature and BDI. Results A high correlation between HFMD incidence and BDI (r=0.794, p<0.001) or temperature (r=0.657, p<0.001) was observed using both time series plot and correlation matrix. A linear effect of BDI (without lag) and non-linear effect of temperature (1 week lag) on HFMD incidence were found in a distributed lag non-linear model. Compared with the model based on surveillance data only, the ARIMAX model including BDI reached the best goodness-of-fit with an Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of −345.332, whereas the model including both BDI and temperature had the most accurate prediction in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 101.745%. Conclusions An ARIMAX model incorporating search engine query data significantly improved the prediction of HFMD. Further studies are warranted to examine whether including search engine query data also improves the prediction of other infectious diseases in other settings. PMID:28988169

The Predictability of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, P.; Davis, J.; Fink, A. H.

2012-04-01

Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally connected to high-impacts for the local population. Previous work has shown that these events are usually connected to a trough over northwestern Africa, an extensive cloud plume on its eastern side, unusual precipitation at the northern and western fringes of the Sahara, and reduced surface pressure over the southern Sahara and Sahel, which allows an inflow of moist southerlies from the Gulf of Guinea to feed the unusual dry-season rainfalls. These results also suggest that the extratropical influence enhances the predictability of these events on the synoptic timescale. Here we further investigate this question for the 11 dry seasons (November-March) 1998/99-2008/09 using rainfall estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and operational ensemble predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF). All fields are averaged over the study area 7.5-15°N, 10°W-10°E that spans most of southern West Africa. For each 0000 UTC analysis time, the daily precipitation estimates are accumulated to pentads and compared with 120-hour predictions starting at the same time. Compared to TRMM, the ensemble mean shows a weak positive bias, whereas there is a substantial negative bias with regard to GPCP. Temporal correlations reach a high value of 0.8 for both datasets, showing similar synoptic variability despite the differences in total amount. Standard probabilistic evaluation methods such as relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams indicate remarkably good reliability, resolution and skill, particularly for lower precipitation thresholds. Not surprisingly, forecasts cluster at low probabilities for higher thresholds, but the reliability and ROC score are still reasonably high. The results show that global ensemble prediction systems are capable to predict dry-season rainfall events in southern West Africa well, at least on regional spatial and synoptic time scales. These results should encourage West African weather services to capitalize more on the valuable information provided by ensemble prediction systems during the dry season.

Comparison of early myocardial technetium-99m pyrophosphate uptake to early peaking of creatine kinase and creatine kinase-MB as indicators of early reperfusion in acute myocardial infarction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kondo, M.; Yuzuki, Y.; Arai, H.

1987-10-01

The value of technetium-99m pyrophosphate (Tc-99m-PYP) scintigraphy as an indicator of reperfusion 2.8 to 8 hours after the onset of symptoms of acute myocardial infarction was compared with the value of early peak creatine kinase (CK) and CK-MB release within 16 hours after the onset of symptoms. In 29 patients who received thrombolytic therapy, recanalization was seen (group 1) and in 7 it was not (group 2). In 23 patients (79%) in group 1 scintigraphic findings were positive and in all 7 in group 2 they were negative. In 15 patients (52%) in group 1 and 1 patient (14%) inmore » group 2, CK reached its peak level within 16 hours. In 20 patients (69%) in group 1 and 3 (43%) in group 2 the CK-MB level reached a peak within 16 hours. The sensitivity, specificity and predictive accuracy of positive results of early Tc-99m-PYP scintigraphy in predicting the reperfusion were 79%, 100% and 83%. These values are significantly higher than or similar to those of early peaking of CK and CK-MB release. In contrast to measurements of enzyme release, reperfusion data for Tc-99m-PYP scintigraphy are available immediately after thrombolytic therapy. Therefore, early Tc-99m-PYP scintigraphy (3 to 8 hours after onset of symptoms) is valuable as a noninvasive technique for early diagnosis of reperfusion.« less

Performing a reaching task with one arm while adapting to a visuomotor rotation with the other can lead to complete transfer of motor learning across the arms

PubMed Central

Lei, Yuming; Binder, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

The extent to which motor learning is generalized across the limbs is typically very limited. Here, we investigated how two motor learning hypotheses could be used to enhance the extent of interlimb transfer. According to one hypothesis, we predicted that reinforcement of successful actions by providing binary error feedback regarding task success or failure, in addition to terminal error feedback, during initial training would increase the extent of interlimb transfer following visuomotor adaptation (experiment 1). According to the other hypothesis, we predicted that performing a reaching task repeatedly with one arm without providing performance feedback (which prevented learning the task with this arm), while concurrently adapting to a visuomotor rotation with the other arm, would increase the extent of transfer (experiment 2). Results indicate that providing binary error feedback, compared with continuous visual feedback that provided movement direction and amplitude information, had no influence on the extent of transfer. In contrast, repeatedly performing (but not learning) a specific task with one arm while visuomotor adaptation occurred with the other arm led to nearly complete transfer. This suggests that the absence of motor instances associated with specific effectors and task conditions is the major reason for limited interlimb transfer and that reinforcement of successful actions during initial training is not beneficial for interlimb transfer. These findings indicate crucial contributions of effector- and task-specific motor instances, which are thought to underlie (a type of) model-free learning, to optimal motor learning and interlimb transfer. PMID:25632082

Methodology for predicting maximum velocity and shear stress in a sinuous channel with bendway weirs using 1-D HEC-RAS modeling results

Treesearch

Paul Sclafani

2011-01-01

The Middle Rio Grande is a 29-mi reach of the Rio Grande River in central New Mexico that extends from downstream of Cochiti Dam to Bernalillo, New Mexico. A series of anthropogenic factors including the construction of flood control levees and Cochiti Dam have altered the historically-braided morphology of the Middle Rio Grande to a more sinuous, degrading reach, with...

Importance of physical and hydraulic characteristics to unionid mussels: A retrospective analysis in a reach of large river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zigler, S.J.; Newton, T.J.; Steuer, J.J.; Bartsch, M.R.; Sauer, J.S.

2008-01-01

Interest in understanding physical and hydraulic factors that might drive distribution and abundance of freshwater mussels has been increasing due to their decline throughout North America. We assessed whether the spatial distribution of unionid mussels could be predicted from physical and hydraulic variables in a reach of the Upper Mississippi River. Classification and regression tree (CART) models were constructed using mussel data compiled from various sources and explanatory variables derived from GIS coverages. Prediction success of CART models for presence-absence of mussels ranged from 71 to 76% across three gears (brail, sled-dredge, and dive-quadrat) and 51% of the deviance in abundance. Models were largely driven by shear stress and substrate stability variables, but interactions with simple physical variables, especially slope, were also important. Geospatial models, which were based on tree model results, predicted few mussels in poorly connected backwater areas (e.g., floodplain lakes) and the navigation channel, whereas main channel border areas with high geomorphic complexity (e.g., river bends, islands, side channel entrances) and small side channels were typically favorable to mussels. Moreover, bootstrap aggregation of discharge-specific regression tree models of dive-quadrat data indicated that variables measured at low discharge were about 25% more predictive (PMSE = 14.8) than variables measured at median discharge (PMSE = 20.4) with high discharge (PMSE = 17.1) variables intermediate. This result suggests that episodic events such as droughts and floods were important in structuring mussel distributions. Although the substantial mussel and ancillary data in our study reach is unusual, our approach to develop exploratory statistical and geospatial models should be useful even when data are more limited. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Bubble Point Measurements with Liquid Methane of a Screen Capillary Liquid Acquisition Device

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jurns, John M.; McQuillen, John B.

2009-01-01

Liquid acquisition devices (LADs) can be utilized within a propellant tank in space to deliver single-phase liquid to the engine in low gravity. One type of liquid acquisition device is a screened gallery whereby a fine mesh screen acts as a bubble filter and prevents the gas bubbles from passing through until a crucial pressure differential condition across the screen, called the bubble point, is reached. This paper presents data for LAD bubble point data in liquid methane (LCH4) for stainless steel Dutch twill screens with mesh sizes of 325 by 2300 and 200 by 1400 wires per inch. Data is presented for both saturated and sub-cooled LCH4, and is compared with predicted values.

Composite charge 8/3 resonances at the LHC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsedonskyi, Oleksii; Riva, Francesco; Vantalon, Thibaud

2014-04-01

In composite Higgs models with partial compositeness, the small value of the observed Higgs mass implies the existence of light fermionic resonances, the top partners, whose quantum numbers are determined by the symmetry (and symmetry breaking) structure of the theory. Here we study light top partners with electric charge 8/3, which are predicted, for instance, in some of the most natural composite Higgs realizations. We recast data from two same sign lepton searches and from searches for microscopic blackholes into a bound on its mass, M 8/3 > 940 GeV. Furthermore, we compare potential reach of these searches with a specifically designed search for three same-sign leptons, both at 8 and 14TeV. We provide a simplified model, suitable for collider analysis.

Fast proton decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tianjun; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V.; Walker, Joel W.

2010-10-01

We consider proton decay in the testable flipped SU(5)×U(1)X models with TeV-scale vector-like particles which can be realized in free fermionic string constructions and F-theory model building. We significantly improve upon the determination of light threshold effects from prior studies, and perform a fresh calculation of the second loop for the process p→eπ from the heavy gauge boson exchange. The cumulative result is comparatively fast proton decay, with a majority of the most plausible parameter space within reach of the future Hyper-Kamiokande and DUSEL experiments. Because the TeV-scale vector-like particles can be produced at the LHC, we predict a strong correlation between the most exciting particle physics experiments of the coming decade.

DCT based interpolation filter for motion compensation in HEVC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alshin, Alexander; Alshina, Elena; Park, Jeong Hoon; Han, Woo-Jin

2012-10-01

High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) draft standard has a challenging goal to improve coding efficiency twice compare to H.264/AVC. Many aspects of the traditional hybrid coding framework were improved during new standard development. Motion compensated prediction, in particular the interpolation filter, is one area that was improved significantly over H.264/AVC. This paper presents the details of the interpolation filter design of the draft HEVC standard. The coding efficiency improvements over H.264/AVC interpolation filter is studied and experimental results are presented, which show a 4.0% average bitrate reduction for Luma component and 11.3% average bitrate reduction for Chroma component. The coding efficiency gains are significant for some video sequences and can reach up 21.7%.

Use of thermal inertia determined by HCMM to predict nocturnal cold prone areas in Florida. [Everglades agricultural area and the west north central peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, L. H., Jr. (Principal Investigator); Chen, E.; Martsolf, J. D.; Jones, P. H.

1981-01-01

Surface temperatures derived from HCMM data were compared with to those obtained by GOES satellite and the apparent thermal inertia (ATI) calculated. For two dates, the HCMM temperatures appear to be about 5 C lower than the GOES temperatures. The ATI for excessively-drained to well-drained mineral soils was greater than for drained organic soils possibly because of long periods of low rainfall during late 1980 and early 1981. Organic soils cropped to sugar cane showed lower ATI after a severe killing freeze. With dead leaves, there was less transpiration and more solar radiation probably reached the dark soil surface. This would explain the larger diurnal temperature amplitude observed.

Validation of a model for the cast-film process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chambon, F.; Ohlsson, S.; Silagy, D.

1996-12-31

We have developed a model of the cast-film process and compared theoretical predictions against experiments on a pilot line. Three polyethylenes with a markedly different level of melt elasticity were used in this evaluation; namely, a high pressure low density polyethylene, LDPE, and two linear low density polyethylenes, LLDPE-1 and LLDPE-2. The final film dimensions of the LDPE were found to be in good agreement with 1-D viscoelastic stationary predictions. Flow field visualization experiments indicate, however, a 2-D velocity field in the airgap between the extrusion die and the chill roll. Taking this observation into account, evolutions of the freemore » surface of the web along the airgap were recorded with LLDPE-2, our least elastic melt. An excellent agreement is found between these measurements and predictions of neck-in and edge bead with 2-D Newtonian stationary simulations. The time-dependent solution, which is based on a linear stability analysis, allows to identify a zone of draw resonance within the working space of the process, defined by the draw ratio, the Deborah number, and the web aspect ratio. It is predicted that increasing this latter parameter stabilizes the process until an optimum value is reached. Experiments with LLDPE-1 are shown to validate this unique theoretical result, thus allowing to increase the draw ratio by about 75%.« less

Effects of Target Fragmentation on Evaluation of LET Spectra From Space Radiation in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) Environment: Impact on SEU Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, J. L.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Badhwar, G. D.; ONeill, P. M.; Badavi, F. F.

1995-01-01

Recent improvements in the radiation transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN and galactic cosmic ray environmental model have provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of target fragmentation on estimates of single event upset (SEU) rates for spacecraft memory devices. Since target fragments are mostly of very low energy, an SEU prediction model has been derived in terms of particle energy rather than linear energy transfer (LET) to account for nonlinear relationship between range and energy. Predictions are made for SEU rates observed on two Shuttle flights, each at low and high inclination orbit. Corrections due to track structure effects are made for both high energy ions with track structure larger than device sensitive volume and for low energy ions with dense track where charge recombination is important. Results indicate contributions from target fragments are relatively important at large shield depths (or any thick structure material) and at low inclination orbit. Consequently, a more consistent set of predictions for upset rates observed in these two flights is reached when compared to an earlier analysis with CREME model. It is also observed that the errors produced by assuming linear relationship in range and energy in the earlier analysis have fortuitously canceled out the errors for not considering target fragmentation and track structure effects.

Spatial and temporal variability in the effects of wildfire and drought on thermal habitat for a desert trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schultz, Luke; Heck, Michael; Hockman-Wert, David; Allai, T; Wengerd, Seth J.; Cook, NA; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-01-01

We studied how drought and an associated stressor, wildfire, influenced stream flow permanence and thermal regimes in a Great Basin stream network. We quantified these responses by collecting information with a spatially extensive network of data loggers. To understand the effects of wildfire specifically, we used data from 4 additional sites that were installed prior to a 2012 fire that burned nearly the entire watershed. Within the sampled network 73 reaches were classified as perennial, yet only 51 contained surface water during logger installation in 2014. Among the sites with pre-fire temperature data, we observed 2–4 °C increases in maximum daily stream temperature relative to an unburned control in the month following the fire; effects (elevated up to 6.6 °C) appeared to persist for at least one year. When observed August mean temperatures in 2015 (the peak of regionally severe drought) were compared to those predicted by a regional stream temperature model, we observed deviations of −2.1°-3.5°. The model under-predicted and over-predicted August mean by > 1 °C in 54% and 10% of sites, respectively, and deviance from predicted was negatively associated with elevation. Combined drought and post-fire conditions appeared to greatly restrict thermally-suitable habitat for Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi).

Can brook trout survive climate change in large rivers? If it rains.

PubMed

Merriam, Eric R; Fernandez, Rodrigo; Petty, J Todd; Zegre, Nicolas

2017-12-31

We provide an assessment of thermal characteristics and climate change vulnerability for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitats in the upper Shavers Fork sub-watershed, West Virginia. Spatial and temporal (2001-2015) variability in observed summer (6/1-8/31) stream temperatures was quantified in 23 (9 tributary, 14 main-stem) reaches. We developed a mixed effects model to predict site-specific mean daily stream temperature from air temperature and discharge and coupled this model with a hydrologic model to predict future (2016-2100) changes in stream temperature under low (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. Observed mean daily stream temperature exceeded the 21°C brook trout physiological threshold in all but one main-stem site, and 3 sites exceeded proposed thermal limits for either 63- and 7-day mean stream temperature. We modeled mean daily stream temperature with a high degree of certainty (R 2 =0.93; RMSE=0.76°C). Predicted increases in mean daily stream temperature in main-stem and tributary reaches ranged from 0.2°C (RCP 4.5) to 1.2°C (RCP 8.5). Between 2091 and 2100, the average number of days with mean daily stream temperature>21°C increased within main-stem sites under the RCP 4.5 (0-1.2days) and 8.5 (0-13) scenarios; however, no site is expected to exceed 63- or 7-day thermal limits. During the warmest 10years, ≥5 main-stem sites exceeded the 63- or 7-day thermal tolerance limits under both climate emissions scenarios. Years with the greatest increases in stream temperature were characterized by low mean daily discharge. Main-stem reaches below major tributaries never exceed thermal limits, despite neighboring reaches having among the highest observed and predicted stream temperatures. Persistence of thermal refugia within upper Shavers Fork would enable persistence of metapopulation structure and life history processes. However, this will only be possible if projected increases in discharge are realized and offset expected increases in air temperature. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of Interim FDG-PET After Induction Chemotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck Receiving Sequential Induction Chemotherapy Followed by Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Dok Hyun; Cho, Yoojin; Kim, Sang Yoon

2011-09-01

Purpose: Induction chemotherapy (ICT) has been used to select patients for organ preservation and determine subsequent treatments in patients with locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (LASCCHN). Still, the clinical outcomes of LASCCHN patients who showed response to ICT are heterogeneous. We evaluated the efficacy of interim 18-fluoro-2-deoxy-glucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) after ICT in this specific subgroup of LASCCHN patients who achieved partial response (PR) after ICT to predict clinical outcomes after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Methods and Materials: Twenty-one patients with LASCCHN who showed PR to ICT by Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors beforemore » definitive CCRT were chosen in this retrospective analysis. FDG-PET was performed before and 2-4 weeks after ICT to assess the extent of disease at baseline and the metabolic response to ICT, respectively. We examined the correlation of the metabolic response by the percentage decrease of maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) on the primary tumor or lymph node after ICT or a specific threshold of SUVmax on interim FDG-PET with clinical outcomes including complete response (CR) rate to CCRT, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Results: A SUVmax of 4.8 on interim FDG-PET could predict clinical CR after CCRT (100% vs. 20%, p = 0.001), PFS (median, not reached vs. 8.5 mo, p < 0.001), and OS (median, not reached vs. 12.0 months, p = 0.001) with a median follow-up of 20.3 months in surviving patients. A 65% decrease in SUVmax after ICT from baseline also could predict clinical CR after CCRT (100% vs. 33.3%, p = 0.003), PFS (median, not reached vs. 8.9 months, p < 0.001) and OS (median, not reached vs. 24.4 months, p = 0.001) of the patients. Conclusion: These data suggest that interim FDG-PET after ICT might be a useful determinant to predict clinical outcomes in patients with LASCCHN receiving sequential ICT followed by CCRT.« less

Development and validation of a simulation method, PeCHREM, for evaluating spatio-temporal concentration changes of paddy herbicides in rivers.

PubMed

Imaizumi, Yoshitaka; Suzuki, Noriyuki; Shiraishi, Fujio; Nakajima, Daisuke; Serizawa, Shigeko; Sakurai, Takeo; Shiraishi, Hiroaki

2018-01-24

In pesticide risk management in Japan, predicted environmental concentrations are estimated by a tiered approach, and the Ministry of the Environment also performs field surveys to confirm the maximum concentrations of pesticides with risk concerns. To contribute to more efficient and effective field surveys, we developed the Pesticide Chemicals High Resolution Estimation Method (PeCHREM) for estimating spatially and temporally variable emissions of various paddy herbicides from paddy fields to the environment. We used PeCHREM and the G-CIEMS multimedia environmental fate model to predict day-to-day environmental concentration changes of 25 herbicides throughout Japan. To validate the PeCHREM/G-CIEMS model, we also conducted a field survey, in which river waters were sampled at least once every two weeks at seven sites in six prefectures from April to July 2009. In 20 of 139 sampling site-herbicide combinations in which herbicides were detected in at least three samples, all observed concentrations differed from the corresponding prediction by less than one order of magnitude. We also compared peak concentrations and the dates on which the concentrations reached peak values (peak dates) between predictions and observations. The peak concentration differences between predictions and observations were less than one order of magnitude in 66% of the 166 sampling site-herbicide combinations in which herbicide was detected in river water. The observed and predicted peak dates differed by less than two weeks in 79% of these 166 combinations. These results confirm that the PeCHREM/G-CIEMS model can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of surveys by predicting the peak concentrations and peak dates of various herbicides.

Nucleosynthesis Predictions for Intermediate-Mass AGB Stars: Comparison to Observations of Type I Planetary Nebulae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karakas, Amanda I.; vanRaai, Mark A.; Lugaro, Maria; Sterling, Nicholas C.; Dinerstein, Harriet L.

2008-01-01

Type I planetary nebulae (PNe) have high He/H and N/O ratios and are thought to be descendants of stars with initial masses of approx. 3-8 Stellar Mass. These characteristics indicate that the progenitor stars experienced proton-capture nucleosynthesis at the base of the convective envelope, in addition to the slow neutron capture process operating in the He-shell (the s-process). We compare the predicted abundances of elements up to Sr from models of intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars to measured abundances in Type I PNe. In particular, we compare predictions and observations for the light trans-iron elements Se and Kr, in order to constrain convective mixing and the s-process in these stars. A partial mixing zone is included in selected models to explore the effect of a C-13 pocket on the s-process yields. The solar-metallicity models produce enrichments of [(Se, Kr)/Fe] less than or approx. 0.6, consistent with Galactic Type I PNe where the observed enhancements are typically less than or approx. 0.3 dex, while lower metallicity models predict larger enrichments of C, N, Se, and Kr. O destruction occurs in the most massive models but it is not efficient enough to account for the greater than or approx. 0.3 dex O depletions observed in some Type I PNe. It is not possible to reach firm conclusions regarding the neutron source operating in massive AGB stars from Se and Kr abundances in Type I PNe; abundances for more s-process elements may help to distinguish between the two neutron sources. We predict that only the most massive (M grester than or approx.5 Stellar Mass) models would evolve into Type I PNe, indicating that extra-mixing processes are active in lower-mass stars (3-4 Stellar Mass), if these stars are to evolve into Type I PNe.

Nucleosynthesis Predictions for Intermediate-Mass Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars: Comparison to Observations of Type I Planetary Nebulae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakas, Amanda I.; van Raai, Mark A.; Lugaro, Maria; Sterling, N. C.; Dinerstein, Harriet L.

2009-01-01

Type I planetary nebulae (PNe) have high He/H and N/O ratios and are thought to be descendants of stars with initial masses of ~3-8 M sun. These characteristics indicate that the progenitor stars experienced proton-capture nucleosynthesis at the base of the convective envelope, in addition to the slow neutron capture process operating in the He-shell (the s-process). We compare the predicted abundances of elements up to Sr from models of intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars to measured abundances in Type I PNe. In particular, we compare predictions and observations for the light trans-iron elements Se and Kr, in order to constrain convective mixing and the s-process in these stars. A partial mixing zone is included in selected models to explore the effect of a 13C pocket on the s-process yields. The solar-metallicity models produce enrichments of [(Se, Kr)/Fe] lsim0.6, consistent with Galactic Type I PNe where the observed enhancements are typically lsim0.3 dex, while lower metallicity models predict larger enrichments of C, N, Se, and Kr. O destruction occurs in the most massive models but it is not efficient enough to account for the gsim0.3 dex O depletions observed in some Type I PNe. It is not possible to reach firm conclusions regarding the neutron source operating in massive AGB stars from Se and Kr abundances in Type I PNe; abundances for more s-process elements may help to distinguish between the two neutron sources. We predict that only the most massive (M gsim 5 M sun) models would evolve into Type I PNe, indicating that extra-mixing processes are active in lower-mass stars (3-4 M sun), if these stars are to evolve into Type I PNe. This paper includes data taken at The McDonald Observatory of The University of Texas at Austin.

Toward a computational framework for cognitive biology: Unifying approaches from cognitive neuroscience and comparative cognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitch, W. Tecumseh

2014-09-01

Progress in understanding cognition requires a quantitative, theoretical framework, grounded in the other natural sciences and able to bridge between implementational, algorithmic and computational levels of explanation. I review recent results in neuroscience and cognitive biology that, when combined, provide key components of such an improved conceptual framework for contemporary cognitive science. Starting at the neuronal level, I first discuss the contemporary realization that single neurons are powerful tree-shaped computers, which implies a reorientation of computational models of learning and plasticity to a lower, cellular, level. I then turn to predictive systems theory (predictive coding and prediction-based learning) which provides a powerful formal framework for understanding brain function at a more global level. Although most formal models concerning predictive coding are framed in associationist terms, I argue that modern data necessitate a reinterpretation of such models in cognitive terms: as model-based predictive systems. Finally, I review the role of the theory of computation and formal language theory in the recent explosion of comparative biological research attempting to isolate and explore how different species differ in their cognitive capacities. Experiments to date strongly suggest that there is an important difference between humans and most other species, best characterized cognitively as a propensity by our species to infer tree structures from sequential data. Computationally, this capacity entails generative capacities above the regular (finite-state) level; implementationally, it requires some neural equivalent of a push-down stack. I dub this unusual human propensity "dendrophilia", and make a number of concrete suggestions about how such a system may be implemented in the human brain, about how and why it evolved, and what this implies for models of language acquisition. I conclude that, although much remains to be done, a neurally-grounded framework for theoretical cognitive science is within reach that can move beyond polarized debates and provide a more adequate theoretical future for cognitive biology.

Toward a computational framework for cognitive biology: unifying approaches from cognitive neuroscience and comparative cognition.

PubMed

Fitch, W Tecumseh

2014-09-01

Progress in understanding cognition requires a quantitative, theoretical framework, grounded in the other natural sciences and able to bridge between implementational, algorithmic and computational levels of explanation. I review recent results in neuroscience and cognitive biology that, when combined, provide key components of such an improved conceptual framework for contemporary cognitive science. Starting at the neuronal level, I first discuss the contemporary realization that single neurons are powerful tree-shaped computers, which implies a reorientation of computational models of learning and plasticity to a lower, cellular, level. I then turn to predictive systems theory (predictive coding and prediction-based learning) which provides a powerful formal framework for understanding brain function at a more global level. Although most formal models concerning predictive coding are framed in associationist terms, I argue that modern data necessitate a reinterpretation of such models in cognitive terms: as model-based predictive systems. Finally, I review the role of the theory of computation and formal language theory in the recent explosion of comparative biological research attempting to isolate and explore how different species differ in their cognitive capacities. Experiments to date strongly suggest that there is an important difference between humans and most other species, best characterized cognitively as a propensity by our species to infer tree structures from sequential data. Computationally, this capacity entails generative capacities above the regular (finite-state) level; implementationally, it requires some neural equivalent of a push-down stack. I dub this unusual human propensity "dendrophilia", and make a number of concrete suggestions about how such a system may be implemented in the human brain, about how and why it evolved, and what this implies for models of language acquisition. I conclude that, although much remains to be done, a neurally-grounded framework for theoretical cognitive science is within reach that can move beyond polarized debates and provide a more adequate theoretical future for cognitive biology. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Understanding the effects of predictability, duration, and spatial pattern of drying on benthic invertebrate assemblages in two contrasting intermittent streams

PubMed Central

von Schiller, Daniel; Barberá, Gonzalo G.; Díaz, Angela M.; Arce, Maria Isabel; del Campo, Rubén; Tockner, Klement

2018-01-01

In the present study, we examined the effects of different drying conditions on the composition, structure and function of benthic invertebrate assemblages. We approached this objective by comparing invertebrate assemblages in perennial and intermittent sites along two intermittent Mediterranean streams with contrasting predictability, duration, and spatial patterns of drying: Fuirosos (high predictability, short duration, downstream drying pattern) and Rogativa (low predictability, long duration, patchy drying pattern). Specifically, we quantified the contribution of individual taxa to those differences, the degree of nestedness, and shifts in the composition, structure and function of benthic invertebrate assemblages along flow intermittence gradients. We observed greater effects of drying on the benthic invertebrate composition in Fuirosos than in Rogativa, resulting in a higher dissimilarity of assemblages between perennial and intermittent sites, as well as a lower degree of nestedness. Furthermore, a higher number of biotic metrics related to richness, abundance and biological traits were significantly different between perennial and intermittent sites in Fuirosos, despite a shorter dry period compared to Rogativa. At the same time, slightly different responses were detected during post-drying (autumn) than pre-drying (spring) conditions in this stream. In Rogativa, shifts in benthic invertebrate assemblages along increasing gradients of flow intermittence were found for three metrics (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) and Odonata, Coleoptera and Heteroptera (OCH) abundances and aerial active dispersal. Furthermore, we demonstrated that combined gradients of dry period duration and distance to nearest perennial reach can generate complex, and different, responses of benthic invertebrate assemblages, depending on the flow intermittence metric. Our study advances the notion that special attention should be paid to the predictability, duration and spatial patterns of drying in intermittent streams in order to disentangle the effects of drying on benthic invertebrate assemblages, in particular in areas subject to high spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in drying conditions. PMID:29590140

Credit assignment in movement-dependent reinforcement learning

PubMed Central

Boggess, Matthew J.; Crossley, Matthew J.; Parvin, Darius; Ivry, Richard B.; Taylor, Jordan A.

2016-01-01

When a person fails to obtain an expected reward from an object in the environment, they face a credit assignment problem: Did the absence of reward reflect an extrinsic property of the environment or an intrinsic error in motor execution? To explore this problem, we modified a popular decision-making task used in studies of reinforcement learning, the two-armed bandit task. We compared a version in which choices were indicated by key presses, the standard response in such tasks, to a version in which the choices were indicated by reaching movements, which affords execution failures. In the key press condition, participants exhibited a strong risk aversion bias; strikingly, this bias reversed in the reaching condition. This result can be explained by a reinforcement model wherein movement errors influence decision-making, either by gating reward prediction errors or by modifying an implicit representation of motor competence. Two further experiments support the gating hypothesis. First, we used a condition in which we provided visual cues indicative of movement errors but informed the participants that trial outcomes were independent of their actual movements. The main result was replicated, indicating that the gating process is independent of participants’ explicit sense of control. Second, individuals with cerebellar degeneration failed to modulate their behavior between the key press and reach conditions, providing converging evidence of an implicit influence of movement error signals on reinforcement learning. These results provide a mechanistically tractable solution to the credit assignment problem. PMID:27247404

Credit assignment in movement-dependent reinforcement learning.

PubMed

McDougle, Samuel D; Boggess, Matthew J; Crossley, Matthew J; Parvin, Darius; Ivry, Richard B; Taylor, Jordan A

2016-06-14

When a person fails to obtain an expected reward from an object in the environment, they face a credit assignment problem: Did the absence of reward reflect an extrinsic property of the environment or an intrinsic error in motor execution? To explore this problem, we modified a popular decision-making task used in studies of reinforcement learning, the two-armed bandit task. We compared a version in which choices were indicated by key presses, the standard response in such tasks, to a version in which the choices were indicated by reaching movements, which affords execution failures. In the key press condition, participants exhibited a strong risk aversion bias; strikingly, this bias reversed in the reaching condition. This result can be explained by a reinforcement model wherein movement errors influence decision-making, either by gating reward prediction errors or by modifying an implicit representation of motor competence. Two further experiments support the gating hypothesis. First, we used a condition in which we provided visual cues indicative of movement errors but informed the participants that trial outcomes were independent of their actual movements. The main result was replicated, indicating that the gating process is independent of participants' explicit sense of control. Second, individuals with cerebellar degeneration failed to modulate their behavior between the key press and reach conditions, providing converging evidence of an implicit influence of movement error signals on reinforcement learning. These results provide a mechanistically tractable solution to the credit assignment problem.

Early visuomotor representations revealed from evoked local field potentials in motor and premotor cortical areas.

PubMed

O'Leary, John G; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G

2006-09-01

Local field potentials (LFPs) recorded from primary motor cortex (MI) have been shown to be tuned to the direction of visually guided reaching movements, but MI LFPs have not been shown to be tuned to the direction of an upcoming movement during the delay period that precedes movement in an instructed-delay reaching task. Also, LFPs in dorsal premotor cortex (PMd) have not been investigated in this context. We therefore recorded LFPs from MI and PMd of monkeys (Macaca mulatta) and investigated whether these LFPs were tuned to the direction of the upcoming movement during the delay period. In three frequency bands we identified LFP activity that was phase-locked to the onset of the instruction stimulus that specified the direction of the upcoming reach. The amplitude of this activity was often tuned to target direction with tuning widths that varied across different electrodes and frequency bands. Single-trial decoding of LFPs demonstrated that prediction of target direction from this activity was possible well before the actual movement is initiated. Decoding performance was significantly better in the slowest-frequency band compared with that in the other two higher-frequency bands. Although these results demonstrate that task-related information is available in the local field potentials, correlations among these signals recorded from a densely packed array of electrodes suggests that adequate decoding performance for neural prosthesis applications may be limited as the number of simultaneous electrode recordings is increased.

Biomechanical contributions of the trunk and upper extremity in discrete versus cyclic reaching in survivors of stroke.

PubMed

Massie, Crystal L; Malcolm, Matthew P; Greene, David P; Browning, Raymond C

2014-01-01

Stroke rehabilitation interventions and assessments incorporate discrete and/or cyclic reaching tasks, yet no biomechanical comparison exists between these 2 movements in survivors of stroke. To characterize the differences between discrete (movements bounded by stationary periods) and cyclic (continuous repetitive movements) reaching in survivors of stroke. Seventeen survivors of stroke underwent kinematic motion analysis of discrete and cyclic reaching movements. Outcomes collected for each side included shoulder, elbow, and trunk range of motion (ROM); peak velocity; movement time; and spatial variability at target contact. Participants used significantly less shoulder and elbow ROM and significantly more trunk flexion ROM when reaching with the stroke-affected side compared with the less-affected side (P < .001). Participants used significantly more trunk rotation during cyclic reaching than discrete reaching with the stroke-affected side (P = .01). No post hoc differences were observed between tasks within the stroke-affected side for elbow, shoulder, and trunk flexion ROM. Peak velocity, movement time, and spatial variability were not different between discrete and cyclic reaching in the stroke-affected side. Survivors of stroke reached with altered kinematics when the stroke-affected side was compared with the less-affected side, yet there were few differences between discrete and cyclic reaching within the stroke-affected side. The greater trunk rotation during cyclic reaching represents a unique segmental strategy when using the stroke-affected side without consequences to end-point kinematics. These findings suggest that clinicians should consider the type of reaching required in therapeutic activities because of the continuous movement demands required with cyclic reaching.

Lessons from (co-)evolution in the docking of proteins and peptides for CAPRI Rounds 28-35.

PubMed

Yu, Jinchao; Andreani, Jessica; Ochsenbein, Françoise; Guerois, Raphaël

2017-03-01

Computational protein-protein docking is of great importance for understanding protein interactions at the structural level. Critical assessment of prediction of interactions (CAPRI) experiments provide the protein docking community with a unique opportunity to blindly test methods based on real-life cases and help accelerate methodology development. For CAPRI Rounds 28-35, we used an automatic docking pipeline integrating the coarse-grained co-evolution-based potential InterEvScore. This score was developed to exploit the information contained in the multiple sequence alignments of binding partners and selectively recognize co-evolved interfaces. Together with Zdock/Frodock for rigid-body docking, SOAP-PP for atomic potential and Rosetta applications for structural refinement, this pipeline reached high performance on a majority of targets. For protein-peptide docking and interfacial water position predictions, we also explored different means of taking evolutionary information into account. Overall, our group ranked 1 st by correctly predicting 10 targets, composed of 1 High, 7 Medium and 2 Acceptable predictions. Excellent and Outstanding levels of accuracy were reached for each of the two water prediction targets, respectively. Altogether, in 15 out of 18 targets in total, evolutionary information, either through co-evolution or conservation analyses, could provide key constraints to guide modeling towards the most likely assemblies. These results open promising perspectives regarding the way evolutionary information can be valuable to improve docking prediction accuracy. Proteins 2017; 85:378-390. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

NOAA National Ocean Service Remote Sensing Applications and Concept of Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

remote sensing technologies to monitor harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, coral bleaching , contamination, land use changes and bathymetry, and making the...NOAA’s Polar Environmental Satellites are used to help predict the likelihood of mass coral bleaching events. Both intensity and duration of...abnormally warm surface temperatures are used to help predict coral bleaching events. When a temperature anomaly reaches a critically high value or

A Maximal Graded Exercise Test to Accurately Predict VO2max in 18-65-Year-Old Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

George, James D.; Bradshaw, Danielle I.; Hyde, Annette; Vehrs, Pat R.; Hager, Ronald L.; Yanowitz, Frank G.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an age-generalized regression model to predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO sub 2 max) based on a maximal treadmill graded exercise test (GXT; George, 1996). Participants (N = 100), ages 18-65 years, reached a maximal level of exertion (mean plus or minus standard deviation [SD]; maximal heart rate [HR sub…

Tuning in to Another Person's Action Capabilities: Perceiving Maximal Jumping-Reach Height from Walking Kinematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramenzoni, Veronica; Riley, Michael A.; Davis, Tehran; Shockley, Kevin; Armstrong, Rachel

2008-01-01

Three experiments investigated the ability to perceive the maximum height to which another actor could jump to reach an object. Experiment 1 determined the accuracy of estimates for another actor's maximal reach-with-jump height and compared these estimates to estimates of the actor's standing maximal reaching height and to estimates of the…

Leaf litter decomposition and microbial activity in nutrient-enriched and unaltered reaches of a headwater stream

Treesearch

Vladislav Gulis; Keller Suberkropp

2003-01-01

1. Decomposition of red maple (Acer rubrum) and rhododendron (Rhododendron maximum) leaves and activity of associated microorganisms were compared in two reaches of a headwater stream in Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, NC, U.S.A. The downstream reach was enriched with ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate whereas the upstream reach was not altered.2. Decomposition...

Outcomes of senior reach gatekeeper referrals: comparison of the Spokane gatekeeper program, Colorado Senior Reach, and Mid-Kansas Senior Outreach.

PubMed

Bartsch, David A; Rodgers, Vicki K; Strong, Don

2013-01-01

Outcomes of older adults referred for care management and mental health services through the senior reach gatekeeper model of case finding were examined in this study and compared with the Spokane gatekeeper model Colorado Senior Reach and the Mid-Kansas Senior Outreach (MKSO) programs are the two Senior Reach Gatekeeper programs modeled after the Spokane program, employing the same community education and gatekeeper model and with mental health treatment for elderly adults in need of support. The three mature programs were compared on seniors served isolation, and depression ratings. Nontraditional community gatekeepers were trained and referred seniors in need. Findings indicate that individuals served by the two Senior Reach Gatekeeper programs demonstrated significant improvements. Isolation indicators such as social isolation decreased and depression symptoms and suicide ideation also decreased. These findings for two Senior Reach Gatekeeper programs demonstrate that the gatekeeper approach to training community partners worked in referring at-risk seniors in need in meeting their needs, and in having a positive impact on their lives.

Precision probes of QCD at high energies

DOE PAGES

Alioli, Simone; Farina, Marco; Pappadopulo, Duccio; ...

2017-07-20

New physics, that is too heavy to be produced directly, can leave measurable imprints on the tails of kinematic distributions at the LHC.We use energetic QCD processes to perform novel measurements of the Standard Model (SM) Effective Field Theory. We show that the dijet invariant mass spectrum, and the inclusive jet transverse momentum spectrum, are sensitive to a dimension 6 operator that modifies the gluon propagator at high energies. The dominant effect is constructive or destructive interference with SM jet production. Here, we compare differential next-to-leading order predictions from POWHEG to public 7TeV jet data, including scale, PDF, and experimentalmore » uncertainties and their respective correlations. Furthermore, we constrain a New Physics (NP) scale of 3.5TeV with current data. We project the reach of future 13 and 100TeV measurements, which we estimate to be sensitive to NP scales of 8 and 60TeV, respectively. As an application, we apply our bounds to constrain heavy vector octet colorons that couple to the QCD current. We conclude that effective operators will surpass bump hunts, in terms of coloron mass reach, even for sequential couplings.« less

Interaction with culture medium components, cellular uptake and intracellular distribution of cobalt nanoparticles, microparticles and ions in Balb/3T3 mouse fibroblasts.

PubMed

Sabbioni, Enrico; Fortaner, Salvador; Farina, Massimo; Del Torchio, Riccardo; Petrarca, Claudia; Bernardini, Giovanni; Mariani-Costantini, Renato; Perconti, Silvia; Di Giampaolo, Luca; Gornati, Rosalba; Di Gioacchino, Mario

2014-02-01

The mechanistic understanding of nanotoxicity requires the physico-chemical characterisation of nanoparticles (NP), and their comparative investigation relative to the corresponding ions and microparticles (MP). Following this approach, the authors studied the dissolution, interaction with medium components, bioavailability in culture medium, uptake and intracellular distribution of radiolabelled Co forms (CoNP, CoMP and Co(2+)) in Balb/3T3 mouse fibroblasts. Co(2+) first saturates the binding sites of molecules in the extracellular milieu (e.g., albumin and histidine) and on the cell surface. Only after saturation, Co(2+) is actively uptaken. CoNP, instead, are predicted to be internalised by endocytosis. Dissolution of Co particles allows the formation of Co compounds (CoNP-rel), whose mechanism of cellular internalisation is unknown. Co uptake (ranking CoMP > CoNP > Co(2+)) reached maximum at 4 h. Once inside the cell, CoNP spread into the cytosol and organelles. Consequently, massive amounts of Co ions and CoNP-rel can reach subcellular compartments normally unexposed to Co(2+). This could explain the fact that the nuclear and mitochondrial Co concentrations resulted significantly higher than those obtained with Co(2+).

The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest

PubMed Central

Berthelot, Geoffroy; Thibault, Valérie; Tafflet, Muriel; Escolano, Sylvie; El Helou, Nour; Jouven, Xavier; Hermine, Olivier; Toussaint, Jean-François

2008-01-01

World records (WR) in sports illustrate the ultimate expression of human integrated muscle biology, through speed or strength performances. Analysis and prediction of man's physiological boundaries in sports and impact of external (historical or environmental) conditions on WR occurrence are subject to scientific controversy. Based on the analysis of 3263 WR established for all quantifiable official contests since the first Olympic Games, we show here that WR progression rate follows a piecewise exponential decaying pattern with very high accuracy (mean adjusted r2 values = 0.91±0.08 (s.d.)). Starting at 75% of their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached 99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027. Our model, which may be used to compare future athletic performances or assess the impact of international antidoping policies, forecasts that human species' physiological frontiers will be reached in one generation. This will have an impact on the future conditions of athlete training and on the organization of competitions. It may also alter the Olympic motto and spirit. PMID:18253499

Modeling ventilation time in forage tower silos.

PubMed

Bahloul, A; Chavez, M; Reggio, M; Roberge, B; Goyer, N

2012-10-01

The fermentation process in forage tower silos produces a significant amount of gases, which can easily reach dangerous concentrations and constitute a hazard for silo operators. To maintain a non-toxic environment, silo ventilation is applied. Literature reviews show that the fermentation gases reach high concentrations in the headspace of a silo and flow down the silo from the chute door to the feed room. In this article, a detailed parametric analysis of forced ventilation scenarios built via numerical simulation was performed. The methodology is based on the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations, coupled with transport equations for the gas concentrations. Validation was achieved by comparing the numerical results with experimental data obtained from a scale model silo using the tracer gas testing method for O2 and CO2 concentrations. Good agreement was found between the experimental and numerical results. The set of numerical simulations made it possible to establish a simple analytical model to predict the minimum time required to ventilate a silo to make it safe to enter. This ventilation time takes into account the headspace above the forage, the airflow rate, and the initial concentrations of O2 and CO2. The final analytical model was validated with available results from the literature.

A statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique to predict rainfall during flood period over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yijia; Zhong, Zhong; Zhu, Yimin; Ha, Yao

2018-04-01

In this paper, a statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition method is established to do the seasonal prediction of the rainfall during flood period (FPR) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV). This method decomposites the rainfall over the MLYRV into three time-scale components, namely, the interannual component with the period less than 8 years, the interdecadal component with the period from 8 to 30 years, and the interdecadal component with the period larger than 30 years. Then, the predictors are selected for the three time-scale components of FPR through the correlation analysis. At last, a statistical forecast model is established using the multiple linear regression technique to predict the three time-scale components of the FPR, respectively. The results show that this forecast model can capture the interannual and interdecadal variation of FPR. The hindcast of FPR during 14 years from 2001 to 2014 shows that the FPR can be predicted successfully in 11 out of the 14 years. This forecast model performs better than the model using traditional scheme without time-scale decomposition. Therefore, the statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique has good skills and application value in the operational prediction of FPR over the MLYRV.

Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, T.

2015-12-01

A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing.

PubMed

Wilcox, Chris; Van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

2015-09-22

Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km(2) and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildlife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat.

Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing

PubMed Central

Wilcox, Chris; Van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

2015-01-01

Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km2 and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildlife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat. PMID:26324886

Reviewing subchondral cartilage surgery: considerations for standardised and outcome predictable cartilage remodelling: a technical note.

PubMed

Benthien, Jan P; Behrens, Peter

2013-11-01

The potential of subchondral mesenchymal stem cell stimulation (MSS) for cartilage repair has led to the widespread use of microfracture as a first line treatment for full thickness articular cartilage defects. Recent focus on the effects of subchondral bone during cartilage injury and repair has expanded the understanding of the strengths and limitations in MSS and opened new pathways for potential improvement. Comparative studies have shown that bone marrow access has positive implications for pluripotential cell recruitment, repair quality and quantity, i.e. deeper channels elicited better cartilage fill, more hyaline cartilage character with higher type II collagen content and lower type I collagen content compared to shallow marrow access. A subchondral needling procedure using standardised and thin subchondral perforations deep into the subarticular bone marrow making the MSS more consistent with the latest developments in subchondral cartilage remodelling is proposed. As this is a novel method clinical studies have been initiated to evaluate the procedure especially compared to microfracturing. However, the first case studies and follow-ups indicate that specific drills facilitate reaching the subchondral bone marrow while the needle size makes perforation of the subchondral bone easier and more predictable. Clinical results of the first group of patients seem to compare well to microfracturing. The authors suggest a new method for a standardised procedure using a new perforating device. Advances in MSS by subchondral bone marrow perforation are discussed. It remains to be determined by clinical studies how this method compares to microfracturing. The subchondral needling offers the surgeon and the investigator a method that facilitates comparison studies because of its defined depth of subchondral penetration and needle size.

Comparison of Gated Audiovisual Speech Identification in Elderly Hearing Aid Users and Elderly Normal-Hearing Individuals

PubMed Central

Lidestam, Björn; Rönnberg, Jerker

2016-01-01

The present study compared elderly hearing aid (EHA) users (n = 20) with elderly normal-hearing (ENH) listeners (n = 20) in terms of isolation points (IPs, the shortest time required for correct identification of a speech stimulus) and accuracy of audiovisual gated speech stimuli (consonants, words, and final words in highly and less predictable sentences) presented in silence. In addition, we compared the IPs of audiovisual speech stimuli from the present study with auditory ones extracted from a previous study, to determine the impact of the addition of visual cues. Both participant groups achieved ceiling levels in terms of accuracy in the audiovisual identification of gated speech stimuli; however, the EHA group needed longer IPs for the audiovisual identification of consonants and words. The benefit of adding visual cues to auditory speech stimuli was more evident in the EHA group, as audiovisual presentation significantly shortened the IPs for consonants, words, and final words in less predictable sentences; in the ENH group, audiovisual presentation only shortened the IPs for consonants and words. In conclusion, although the audiovisual benefit was greater for EHA group, this group had inferior performance compared with the ENH group in terms of IPs when supportive semantic context was lacking. Consequently, EHA users needed the initial part of the audiovisual speech signal to be longer than did their counterparts with normal hearing to reach the same level of accuracy in the absence of a semantic context. PMID:27317667

Automated River Reach Definition Strategies: Applications for the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frasson, Renato Prata de Moraes; Wei, Rui; Durand, Michael; Minear, J. Toby; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Schumann, Guy; Williams, Brent A.; Rodriguez, Ernesto; Picamilh, Christophe; Lion, Christine; Pavelsky, Tamlin; Garambois, Pierre-André

2017-10-01

The upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will measure water surface heights and widths for rivers wider than 100 m. At its native resolution, SWOT height errors are expected to be on the order of meters, which prevent the calculation of water surface slopes and the use of slope-dependent discharge equations. To mitigate height and width errors, the high-resolution measurements will be grouped into reaches (˜5 to 15 km), where slope and discharge are estimated. We describe three automated river segmentation strategies for defining optimum reaches for discharge estimation: (1) arbitrary lengths, (2) identification of hydraulic controls, and (3) sinuosity. We test our methodologies on 9 and 14 simulated SWOT overpasses over the Sacramento and the Po Rivers, respectively, which we compare against hydraulic models of each river. Our results show that generally, height, width, and slope errors decrease with increasing reach length. However, the hydraulic controls and the sinuosity methods led to better slopes and often height errors that were either smaller or comparable to those of arbitrary reaches of compatible sizes. Estimated discharge errors caused by the propagation of height, width, and slope errors through the discharge equation were often smaller for sinuosity (on average 8.5% for the Sacramento and 6.9% for the Po) and hydraulic control (Sacramento: 7.3% and Po: 5.9%) reaches than for arbitrary reaches of comparable lengths (Sacramento: 8.6% and Po: 7.8%). This analysis suggests that reach definition methods that preserve the hydraulic properties of the river network may lead to better discharge estimates.

Distillation Time as Tool for Improved Antimalarial Activity and Differential Oil Composition of Cumin Seed Oil.

PubMed

Zheljazkov, Valtcho D; Gawde, Archana; Cantrell, Charles L; Astatkie, Tess; Schlegel, Vicki

2015-01-01

A steam distillation extraction kinetics experiment was conducted to estimate essential oil yield, composition, antimalarial, and antioxidant capacity of cumin (Cuminum cyminum L.) seed (fruits). Furthermore, regression models were developed to predict essential oil yield and composition for a given duration of the steam distillation time (DT). Ten DT durations were tested in this study: 5, 7.5, 15, 30, 60, 120, 240, 360, 480, and 600 min. Oil yields increased with an increase in the DT. Maximum oil yield (content, 2.3 g/100 seed), was achieved at 480 min; longer DT did not increase oil yields. The concentrations of the major oil constituents α-pinene (0.14-0.5% concentration range), β-pinene (3.7-10.3% range), γ-cymene (5-7.3% range), γ-terpinene (1.8-7.2% range), cumin aldehyde (50-66% range), α-terpinen-7-al (3.8-16% range), and β-terpinen-7-al (12-20% range) varied as a function of the DT. The concentrations of α-pinene, β-pinene, γ-cymene, γ-terpinene in the oil increased with the increase of the duration of the DT; α-pinene was highest in the oil obtained at 600 min DT, β-pinene and γ-terpinene reached maximum concentrations in the oil at 360 min DT; γ-cymene reached a maximum in the oil at 60 min DT, cumin aldehyde was high in the oils obtained at 5-60 min DT, and low in the oils obtained at 240-600 min DT, α-terpinen-7-al reached maximum in the oils obtained at 480 or 600 min DT, whereas β-terpinen-7-al reached a maximum concentration in the oil at 60 min DT. The yield of individual oil constituents (calculated from the oil yields and the concentration of a given compound at a particular DT) increased and reached a maximum at 480 or 600 min DT. The antimalarial activity of the cumin seed oil obtained during the 0-5 and at 5-7.5 min DT timeframes was twice higher than the antimalarial activity of the oils obtained at the other DT. This study opens the possibility for distinct marketing and utilization for these improved oils. The antioxidant capacity of the oil was highest in the oil obtained at 30 min DT and lowest in the oil from 360 min DT. The Michaelis-Menton and the Power nonlinear regression models developed in this study can be utilized to predict essential oil yield and composition of cumin seed at any given duration of DT and may also be useful to compare previous reports on cumin oil yield and composition. DT can be utilized to obtain cumin seed oil with improved antimalarial activity, improved antioxidant capacity, and with various compositions.

Quantifying the role of woody debris in providing bioenergetically favorable habitat for juvenile salmon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, L.; Hafs, A. W.; Utz, R.; Dunne, T.

2013-12-01

The habitat complexity of a riverine ecosystem substantially influences aquatic communities, and especially the bioenergetics of drift feeding fish. We coupled hydrodynamic and bioenergetic models to assess the influence of habitat complexity, generated via large woody debris (LWD) additions, on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) growth potential in a river that lacked large wood. Model simulations indicated that LWD diversified the flow field, creating pronounced velocity gradients, which enhanced fish feeding and resting activities at the micro-habitat (sub-meter) scale. Fluid drag created by individual wood structures was increased under higher wood loading rates, leading to a 5-19% reduction in the reach-averaged velocity. We found that wood loading was asymptotically related to the reach-scale growth potential, suggesting that the river became saturated with LWD and additional loading would produce minimal benefit. In our study reach, LWD additions could potentially quadruple the potential growth area available before that limit was reached. Wood depletion in the world's rivers has been widely documented, leading to widespread attempts by river managers to reverse this trend by adding wood to simplified aquatic habitats, though systematic prediction of the effects of wood on fish growth has not been previously accomplished. We offer a quantitative, theory-based approach for assessing the role of wood on habitat potential as it affects fish growth at the micro-habitat and reach-scales. Fig. 1. Predicted flow field and salmon growth potential maps produced from model simulations with no woody debris (Graphs A and D), a low density (Graphs B and E), and a high density (Graphs C and E) of woody debris.

Reservoir Sedimentation and Upstream Sediment Sources: Perspectives and Future Research Needs on Streambank and Gully Erosion.

PubMed

Fox, G A; Sheshukov, A; Cruse, R; Kolar, R L; Guertault, L; Gesch, K R; Dutnell, R C

2016-05-01

The future reliance on water supply and flood control reservoirs across the globe will continue to expand, especially under a variable climate. As the inventory of new potential dam sites is shrinking, construction of additional reservoirs is less likely compared to simultaneous flow and sediment management in existing reservoirs. One aspect of this sediment management is related to the control of upstream sediment sources. However, key research questions remain regarding upstream sediment loading rates. Highlighted in this article are research needs relative to measuring and predicting sediment transport rates and loading due to streambank and gully erosion within a watershed. For example, additional instream sediment transport and reservoir sedimentation rate measurements are needed across a range of watershed conditions, reservoir sizes, and geographical locations. More research is needed to understand the intricate linkage between upland practices and instream response. A need still exists to clarify the benefit of restoration or stabilization of a small reach within a channel system or maturing gully on total watershed sediment load. We need to better understand the intricate interactions between hydrological and erosion processes to improve prediction, location, and timing of streambank erosion and failure and gully formation. Also, improved process-based measurement and prediction techniques are needed that balance data requirements regarding cohesive soil erodibility and stability as compared to simpler topographic indices for gullies or stream classification systems. Such techniques will allow the research community to address the benefit of various conservation and/or stabilization practices at targeted locations within watersheds.

Reservoir Sedimentation and Upstream Sediment Sources: Perspectives and Future Research Needs on Streambank and Gully Erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, G. A.; Sheshukov, A.; Cruse, R.; Kolar, R. L.; Guertault, L.; Gesch, K. R.; Dutnell, R. C.

2016-05-01

The future reliance on water supply and flood control reservoirs across the globe will continue to expand, especially under a variable climate. As the inventory of new potential dam sites is shrinking, construction of additional reservoirs is less likely compared to simultaneous flow and sediment management in existing reservoirs. One aspect of this sediment management is related to the control of upstream sediment sources. However, key research questions remain regarding upstream sediment loading rates. Highlighted in this article are research needs relative to measuring and predicting sediment transport rates and loading due to streambank and gully erosion within a watershed. For example, additional instream sediment transport and reservoir sedimentation rate measurements are needed across a range of watershed conditions, reservoir sizes, and geographical locations. More research is needed to understand the intricate linkage between upland practices and instream response. A need still exists to clarify the benefit of restoration or stabilization of a small reach within a channel system or maturing gully on total watershed sediment load. We need to better understand the intricate interactions between hydrological and erosion processes to improve prediction, location, and timing of streambank erosion and failure and gully formation. Also, improved process-based measurement and prediction techniques are needed that balance data requirements regarding cohesive soil erodibility and stability as compared to simpler topographic indices for gullies or stream classification systems. Such techniques will allow the research community to address the benefit of various conservation and/or stabilization practices at targeted locations within watersheds.

Case-Mix for Performance Management: A Risk Algorithm Based on ICD-10-CM.

PubMed

Gao, Jian; Moran, Eileen; Almenoff, Peter L

2018-06-01

Accurate risk adjustment is the key to a reliable comparison of cost and quality performance among providers and hospitals. However, the existing case-mix algorithms based on age, sex, and diagnoses can only explain up to 50% of the cost variation. More accurate risk adjustment is desired for provider performance assessment and improvement. To develop a case-mix algorithm that hospitals and payers can use to measure and compare cost and quality performance of their providers. All 6,048,895 patients with valid diagnoses and cost recorded in the US Veterans health care system in fiscal year 2016 were included in this study. The dependent variable was total cost at the patient level, and the explanatory variables were age, sex, and comorbidities represented by 762 clinically homogeneous groups, which were created by expanding the 283 categories from Clinical Classifications Software based on ICD-10-CM codes. The split-sample method was used to assess model overfitting and coefficient stability. The predictive power of the algorithms was ascertained by comparing the R, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, predictive ratios, and c-statistics. The expansion of the Clinical Classifications Software categories resulted in higher predictive power. The R reached 0.72 and 0.52 for the transformed and raw scale cost, respectively. The case-mix algorithm we developed based on age, sex, and diagnoses outperformed the existing case-mix models reported in the literature. The method developed in this study can be used by other health systems to produce tailored risk models for their specific purpose.

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Extruded Gamma Met PX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Draper, S. L.; Das, G.; Locci, I.; Whittenberger, J. D.; Lerch, B. A.; Kestler, H.

2003-01-01

A gamma TiAl alloy with a high Nb content is being assessed as a compressor blade material. The microstructure and mechanical properties of extruded Ti-45Al-X(Nb,B,C) (at %) were evaluated in both an as-extruded condition and after a lamellar heat treatment. Tensile behavior of both as-extruded and lamellar heat treated specimens was studied in the temperature range of RT to 926 C. In general, the yield stress and ultimate tensile strength reached relatively high values at room temperature and decreased with increasing deformation temperature. The fatigue strength of both microstructures was characterized at 650 C and compared to a baseline TiAl alloy and to a Ni-base superalloy. Tensile and fatigue specimens were also exposed to 800 C for 200 h in air to evaluate the alloy's environmental resistance. A decrease in ductility was observed at room temperature due to the 800 C exposure but the 650 C fatigue properties were unaffected. Compressive and tensile creep testing between 727 and 1027 C revealed that the creep deformation was reproducible and predictable. Creep strengths reached superalloy-like levels at fast strain rates and lower temperatures but deformation at slower strain rates and/or higher temperature indicated significant weakening for the as-extruded condition. At high temperatures and low stresses, the lamellar microstructure had improved creep properties when compared to the as-extruded material. Microstructural evolution during heat treatment, identification of various phases, and the effect of microstructure on the tensile, fatigue, and creep behaviors is discussed.

Spatial and temporal patterns of debris flow deposition in the Oregon Coast Range, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

May, Christine L.; Gresswell, Robert E.

2004-01-01

Patterns of debris-flow occurrence were investigated in 125 headwater basins in the Oregon Coast Range. Time since the previous debris-flows was established using dendrochronology, and recurrence interval estimates ranged from 98 to 357 years. Tributary basins with larger drainage areas had a greater abundance of potential landslide source areas and a greater frequency of scouring events compared to smaller basins. The flux rate of material delivered to the confluence with a larger river influenced the development of small-scale debris-flow fans. Fans at the mouths of tributary basins with smaller drainage areas had a higher likelihood of being eroded by the mainstem river in the interval between debris-flows, compared to bigger basins that had larger, more persistent fans. Valley floor width of the receiving channel also influenced fan development because it limited the space available to accommodate fan formation. Of 63 recent debris-flows, 52% delivered sediment and wood directly to the mainstem river, 30% were deposited on an existing fan before reaching the mainstem, and 18% were deposited within the confines of the tributary valley before reaching the confluence. Spatial variation in the location of past and present depositional surfaces indicated that sequential debris-flow deposits did not consistently form in the same place. Instead of being spatially deterministic, results of this study suggest that temporally variable and stochastic factors may be important for predicting the runout length of debris-flows.

The effects of audibility and novel word learning ability on vocabulary level in children with cochlear implants.

PubMed

Davidson, Lisa S; Geers, Ann E; Nicholas, Johanna G

2014-07-01

A novel word learning (NWL) paradigm was used to explore underlying phonological and cognitive mechanisms responsible for delayed vocabulary level in children with cochlear implants (CIs). One hundred and one children using CIs, 6-12 years old, were tested along with 47 children with normal hearing (NH). Tests of NWL, receptive vocabulary, and speech perception at 2 loudness levels were administered to children with CIs. Those with NH completed the NWL task and a receptive vocabulary test. CI participants with good audibility (GA) versus poor audibility (PA) were compared on all measures. Analysis of variance was used to compare performance across the children with NH and the two groups of children with CIs. Multiple regression analysis was employed to identify independent predictors of vocabulary outcomes. Children with CIs in the GA group scored higher in receptive vocabulary and NWL than children in the PA group, although they did not reach NH levels. CI-aided pure tone threshold and performance on the NWL task predicted independent variance in vocabulary after accounting for other known predictors. Acquiring spoken vocabulary is facilitated by GA with a CI and phonological learning and memory skills. Children with CIs did not learn novel words at the same rate or achieve the same receptive vocabulary levels as their NH peers. Maximizing audibility for the perception of speech and direct instruction of new vocabulary may be necessary for children with CIs to reach levels seen in peers with NH.

Comparison of Heat and Bromide as Ground Water Tracers Near Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, J.; Cox, M.H.; Su, G.W.

2003-01-01

Heat and bromide were compared as tracers for examining stream/ground water exchanges along the middle reaches of the Santa Clara River, California, during a 10-hour surface water sodium bromide injection test. Three cross sections that comprise six shallow (<1 m) piezometers were installed at the upper, middle, and lower sections of a 17 km long study reach, to monitor temperatures and bromide concentrations in the shallow ground water beneath the stream. A heat and ground water transport simulation model and a closely related solute and ground water transport simulation model were matched up for comparison of simulated and observed temperatures and bromide concentrations in the streambed. Vertical, one-dimensional simulations of sediment temperature were fitted to observed temperature results, to yield apparent streambed hydraulic conductivities in each cross section. The temperature-based hydraulic conductivities were assigned to a solute and ground water transport model to predict sediment bromide concentrations, during the sodium bromide injection test. Vertical, one-dimensional simulations of bromide concentrations in the sediments yielded a good match to the observed bromide concentrations, without adjustment of any model parameters except solute dispersivities. This indicates that, for the spatial and temporal scales examined on the Santa Clara River, the use of heat and bromide as tracers provide comparable information with respect to apparent hydraulic conductivities and fluxes for sediments near streams. In other settings, caution should be used due to differences in the nature of conservative (bromide) versus nonconservative (heat) tracers, particularly when preferential flowpaths are present.

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Extruded Gamma Microstructure Met PX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Draper, S. L.; Das, G.; Locci, J.; Whittenberger, J. D.; Lerch, B. A.; Kestler, H.

2003-01-01

A gamma TiAl alloy with a high Nb content is being assessed as a compressor blade material. The microstructure and mechanical properties of extruded Ti-45Al-X(Nb,B,C) (at.%) were evaluated in both an as-extruded condition and after a lamellar heat treatment. Tensile behavior of both as-extruded and lamellar heat treated specimens was studied in the temperature range of RT to 926 C. In general, the yield stress and ultimate tensile strength reached relatively high values at room temperature and decreased with increasing deformation temperature. The fatigue strength of both microstructures was characterized at 650 C and compared to a baseline TiAl alloy and to a Ni-base superalloy. Tensile and fatigue specimens were also exposed to 800 C for 200 h in air to evaluate the alloy's environmental resistance. A decrease in ductility was observed at room temperature due to the 800 C. exposure but the 650 C fatigue properties were unaffected. Compressive and tensile creep testing between 727 and 1027 C revealed that the creep deformation was reproducible and predictable. Creep strengths reached superalloy-like levels at fast strain rates and lower temperatures but deformation at slower strain rates and/or higher temperature indicated significant weakening for the as-extruded condition. At high temperatures and low stresses, the lamellar microstructure had improved creep properties when compared to the as-extruded material. Microstructural evolution during heat treatment, identification of various phases, and the effect of microstructure on the tensile, fatigue, and creep behaviors is discussed.

Water Relations of Obligate Riparian Plants as a Function of Streamflow Diversion on the Bishop Creek Watershed

Treesearch

Stanley D. Smith; Janet L. Nachlinger; A. Bruce Wellington; Carl A. Fox

1989-01-01

We investigated the water relations of obligate riparian plants on paired diverted and undiverted reaches on Bishop Creek, Eastern Sierra Nevada. Riparian plants on diverted reaches had reduced stomatal conductance and water potential compared to plants on undiverted reaches in a dry year, but not in a high runoff year. Juvenile plants on diverted reaches had reduced...

Light attenuation and submersed macrophyte distribution in the tidal Potomac River and estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, V.; Rybicki, N.B.

1990-01-01

Changing light availability may be responsible for the discontinuous distribution of submersed aquatic macrophytes in the freshwater tidal Potomac River. During the 1985-1986 growing seasons, light attenuation and chlorophyll a and suspended particulate material concentrations were measured in an unvegetated reach (B) and in two adjacent vegetated reaches (A and C). Light attenuation in reach B (the lower, fresh to oligohaline tidal river) was greater than that in reach A (the recently revegetated, upper, freshwater tidal river) in both years. Reach B light attenuation was greater than that in reach C (the vegetated, oligohaline to mesohaline transition zone of the Potomac Estuary) in 1985 and similar to that in reach C in 1986. In reach B, 5% of total below-surface light penetrated only an average of 1.3 m in 1985 and 1.0m in 1986, compared with 1.9 m and 1.4 m in reach A in 1985 and 1986, respectively. Water column chlorophyll a concentration controlled light availability in reaches A and B in 1985, whereas both chlorophyll a and suspended particulate material concentrations were highly correlated with attenuation in both reaches in 1986. Reach C light attenuation was correlated with suspended particulate material in 1986. The relationship between attenuation coefficient and Secchi depth was KPAR=1.38/Secchi depth. The spectral distribution of light at 1 m was shifted toward the red portion of the visible spectrum compared to surface light. Blue light was virtually absent at 1.0 m in reach B during July and August 1986. Tidal range is probably an important factor in determining light availability for submersed macrophyte propagule survival at the sediment-water interface in this shallow turbid system. ?? 1990 Estuarine Research Federation.

Are abrupt climate changes predictable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ditlevsen, Peter

2013-04-01

It is taken for granted that the limited predictability in the initial value problem, the weather prediction, and the predictability of the statistics are two distinct problems. Lorenz (1975) dubbed this predictability of the first and the second kind respectively. Predictability of the first kind in a chaotic dynamical system is limited due to the well-known critical dependence on initial conditions. Predictability of the second kind is possible in an ergodic system, where either the dynamics is known and the phase space attractor can be characterized by simulation or the system can be observed for such long times that the statistics can be obtained from temporal averaging, assuming that the attractor does not change in time. For the climate system the distinction between predictability of the first and the second kind is fuzzy. This difficulty in distinction between predictability of the first and of the second kind is related to the lack of scale separation between fast and slow components of the climate system. The non-linear nature of the problem furthermore opens the possibility of multiple attractors, or multiple quasi-steady states. As the ice-core records show, the climate has been jumping between different quasi-stationary climates, stadials and interstadials through the Dansgaard-Oechger events. Such a jump happens very fast when a critical tipping point has been reached. The question is: Can such a tipping point be predicted? This is a new kind of predictability: the third kind. If the tipping point is reached through a bifurcation, where the stability of the system is governed by some control parameter, changing in a predictable way to a critical value, the tipping is predictable. If the sudden jump occurs because internal chaotic fluctuations, noise, push the system across a barrier, the tipping is as unpredictable as the triggering noise. In order to hint at an answer to this question, a careful analysis of the high temporal resolution NGRIP isotope record is presented. The result of the analysis points to a fundamental limitation in predictability of the third kind. Reference: P. D. Ditlevsen and S. Johnsen, "Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking", Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 2010

Obesity indices predict hypertension among indigenous adults in Krau Wildlife Reserve, Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Chua, Ee Yin; Zalilah, Mohd Shariff; Haemamalar, Karppaya; Norhasmah, Sulaiman; Geeta, Appannah

2017-05-25

The disease burden of indigenous peoples has been augmented by the rising prevalence of obesity and hypertension in this population. This study assessed the ability of obesity indices to predict hypertension among indigenous adults of Peninsular Malaysia. In this cross-sectional study, 482 adults (223 men, 259 women) aged ≥18 years old were measured for body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-height ratio (WHtR), waist-hip ratio (WHR), and blood pressure. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the predictive ability of obesity indices for hypertension in men and women. Gender-specific logistic regression analyses were done to examine the association between obesity, defined by BMI, WC, WHtR and WHR, and hypertension. Prevalence of hypertension was 25.5%. Overall, WHtR was the best predictor of the presence of hypertension, in both men and women. The optimal WHtR cut-off values for hypertension were 0.45 and 0.52 in men and women, respectively. Obese adults with WHtR ≥0.5 had about two times increased odds of having hypertension compared to non-obese adults. WHtR may serve as a simple and inexpensive screening tool to identify individuals with hypertension in this relatively difficult to reach population.

Effect of a levee setback on aquatic resources using two-dimensional flow and bioenergetics models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Black, Robert W.; Czuba, Christiana R.; Magirl, Christopher S.; McCarthy, Sarah; Berge, Hans; Comanor, Kyle

2016-04-05

Watershed restoration is the focus of many resource managers and can include a multitude of restoration actions each with specific restoration objectives. For the White River flowing through the cities of Pacific and Sumner, Washington, a levee setback has been proposed to reconnect the river with its historical floodplain to help reduce flood risks, as well as provide increased habitat for federally listed species of salmonids. The study presented here documents the use of a modeling framework that integrates two-dimensional hydraulic modeling with process-based bioenergetics modeling for predicting how changes in flow from reconnecting the river with its floodplain affects invertebrate drift density and the net rate of energy intake of juvenile salmonids. Modeling results were calculated for flows of 25.9 and 49.3 cubic meters per second during the spring, summer, and fall. Predicted hypothetical future mean velocities and depths were significantly lower and more variable when compared to current conditions. The abundance of low energetic cost and positive growth locations for salmonids were predicted to increase significantly in the study reach following floodplain reconnection, particularly during the summer. This modeling framework presents a viable approach for evaluating the potential fisheries benefits of reconnecting a river to its historical floodplain that integrates our understanding of hydraulic, geomorphology, and organismal biology.

[Lack of assertiveness in patients with eating disorders].

PubMed

Behar A, Rosa; Manzo G, Rodrigo; Casanova Z, Dunny

2006-03-01

Low self-assertion has been noted as an important feature among patients with eating disorders. To verify, in a female population, if assertiveness is related or has a predictive capacity for the development of eating disorders. An structured clinical interview, the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-40) and the Rathus Assertiveness Scale (RAS) were administered to 62 patients that fulfilled the DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for eating disorders and to 120 female students without eating problems. Patients with eating disorders ranked significantly higher on the EAT-40 and its factors (p <0.001) and showed a lower level of assertiveness on the RAS (p <0.001). Assertiveness measured by RAS and its factors was inversely related to EAT-40 and its items (r= -0.21). The predictive capability of the lack of self-assertion in the development of an eating disorder reached 53%, when patients with eating disorders and subjects at risk were considered together and compared to students without such disorder. Lack of assertiveness is a significant trait in patients with eating disorders; it may worsen its outcome and even perpetuate symptoms. Low self-assertion may be considered a predictive factor in the development of an eating disorder and must be managed from a preventive or therapeutic point of view.

Pilot Performance With Predictive System Status Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1997-01-01

Research has shown a strong pilot preference for predictive information of aircraft system status in the flight deck. However, the benefits of predictive information have not been quantitatively demonstrated. The study described here attempted to identify and quantify these benefits if they existed. In this simulator experiment, three types of predictive information (none, whether a parameter was changing abnormally, and the time for a parameter to reach an alert range) and four initial times to an alert (1 minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and ETA+ 45 minutes) were found to affect when subjects accomplished certain actions, such as accessing pertinent checklists, declaring emergencies, diverting, and calling the flight attendant and dispatch.

Performance of protein-structure predictions with the physics-based UNRES force field in CASP11.

PubMed

Krupa, Paweł; Mozolewska, Magdalena A; Wiśniewska, Marta; Yin, Yanping; He, Yi; Sieradzan, Adam K; Ganzynkowicz, Robert; Lipska, Agnieszka G; Karczyńska, Agnieszka; Ślusarz, Magdalena; Ślusarz, Rafał; Giełdoń, Artur; Czaplewski, Cezary; Jagieła, Dawid; Zaborowski, Bartłomiej; Scheraga, Harold A; Liwo, Adam

2016-11-01

Participating as the Cornell-Gdansk group, we have used our physics-based coarse-grained UNited RESidue (UNRES) force field to predict protein structure in the 11th Community Wide Experiment on the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP11). Our methodology involved extensive multiplexed replica exchange simulations of the target proteins with a recently improved UNRES force field to provide better reproductions of the local structures of polypeptide chains. All simulations were started from fully extended polypeptide chains, and no external information was included in the simulation process except for weak restraints on secondary structure to enable us to finish each prediction within the allowed 3-week time window. Because of simplified UNRES representation of polypeptide chains, use of enhanced sampling methods, code optimization and parallelization and sufficient computational resources, we were able to treat, for the first time, all 55 human prediction targets with sizes from 44 to 595 amino acid residues, the average size being 251 residues. Complete structures of six single-domain proteins were predicted accurately, with the highest accuracy being attained for the T0769, for which the CαRMSD was 3.8 Å for 97 residues of the experimental structure. Correct structures were also predicted for 13 domains of multi-domain proteins with accuracy comparable to that of the best template-based modeling methods. With further improvements of the UNRES force field that are now underway, our physics-based coarse-grained approach to protein-structure prediction will eventually reach global prediction capacity and, consequently, reliability in simulating protein structure and dynamics that are important in biochemical processes. Freely available on the web at http://www.unres.pl/ CONTACT: has5@cornell.edu. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Exploring Mouse Protein Function via Multiple Approaches.

PubMed

Huang, Guohua; Chu, Chen; Huang, Tao; Kong, Xiangyin; Zhang, Yunhua; Zhang, Ning; Cai, Yu-Dong

2016-01-01

Although the number of available protein sequences is growing exponentially, functional protein annotations lag far behind. Therefore, accurate identification of protein functions remains one of the major challenges in molecular biology. In this study, we presented a novel approach to predict mouse protein functions. The approach was a sequential combination of a similarity-based approach, an interaction-based approach and a pseudo amino acid composition-based approach. The method achieved an accuracy of about 0.8450 for the 1st-order predictions in the leave-one-out and ten-fold cross-validations. For the results yielded by the leave-one-out cross-validation, although the similarity-based approach alone achieved an accuracy of 0.8756, it was unable to predict the functions of proteins with no homologues. Comparatively, the pseudo amino acid composition-based approach alone reached an accuracy of 0.6786. Although the accuracy was lower than that of the previous approach, it could predict the functions of almost all proteins, even proteins with no homologues. Therefore, the combined method balanced the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches to achieve efficient performance. Furthermore, the results yielded by the ten-fold cross-validation indicate that the combined method is still effective and stable when there are no close homologs are available. However, the accuracy of the predicted functions can only be determined according to known protein functions based on current knowledge. Many protein functions remain unknown. By exploring the functions of proteins for which the 1st-order predicted functions are wrong but the 2nd-order predicted functions are correct, the 1st-order wrongly predicted functions were shown to be closely associated with the genes encoding the proteins. The so-called wrongly predicted functions could also potentially be correct upon future experimental verification. Therefore, the accuracy of the presented method may be much higher in reality.

Waist circumference shows the highest predictive value for metabolic syndrome, and waist-to-hip ratio for its components, in Spanish adolescents.

PubMed

Perona, Javier S; Schmidt-RioValle, Jacqueline; Rueda-Medina, Blanca; Correa-Rodríguez, María; González-Jiménez, Emilio

2017-09-01

Both waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) have been proposed as predictors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in adolescents, but no consensus has been reached to date. This study hypothesizes that WC provides a greater predictive value for MetS in Spanish adolescents than WHR. A cross-sectional study was performed on 1001 adolescents (13.2 ± 1.2 years) randomly recruited from schools in southeast Spain. Anthropometric measures were correlated with the components of MetS (triglycerides, glucose, blood pressure, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) as well as inflammation markers (interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha , C-reactive protein, and ceruloplasmin). Receiver-operator curves were created to determine the predictive value of these variables for MetS. Boys had higher values of all anthropometric parameters compared with girls, but the prevalence of MetS was significantly higher in girls. WHR was the only parameter that correlated significantly with all biochemical and inflammatory variables in boys. In girls, WHR, body mass index, waist-to-height ratio, WC, and body fat percentage correlated only with plasma insulin levels, systolic and diastolic pressures, and ceruloplasmin. In both groups, all anthropometric measures were able to predict MetS (area under the curve > 0.94). In particular, WC was able to predict MetS with area under the curve = 1.00. However, WHR was able to predict a higher number of components of MetS. WHR was the anthropometric index that showed the highest predictive value for MetS components, whereas WC was the one that best predicted the MetS among the population of adolescents studied. These findings justify the need to incorporate WHR and WC determinations into daily clinical practice to predict the MetS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring Mouse Protein Function via Multiple Approaches

PubMed Central

Huang, Tao; Kong, Xiangyin; Zhang, Yunhua; Zhang, Ning

2016-01-01

Although the number of available protein sequences is growing exponentially, functional protein annotations lag far behind. Therefore, accurate identification of protein functions remains one of the major challenges in molecular biology. In this study, we presented a novel approach to predict mouse protein functions. The approach was a sequential combination of a similarity-based approach, an interaction-based approach and a pseudo amino acid composition-based approach. The method achieved an accuracy of about 0.8450 for the 1st-order predictions in the leave-one-out and ten-fold cross-validations. For the results yielded by the leave-one-out cross-validation, although the similarity-based approach alone achieved an accuracy of 0.8756, it was unable to predict the functions of proteins with no homologues. Comparatively, the pseudo amino acid composition-based approach alone reached an accuracy of 0.6786. Although the accuracy was lower than that of the previous approach, it could predict the functions of almost all proteins, even proteins with no homologues. Therefore, the combined method balanced the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches to achieve efficient performance. Furthermore, the results yielded by the ten-fold cross-validation indicate that the combined method is still effective and stable when there are no close homologs are available. However, the accuracy of the predicted functions can only be determined according to known protein functions based on current knowledge. Many protein functions remain unknown. By exploring the functions of proteins for which the 1st-order predicted functions are wrong but the 2nd-order predicted functions are correct, the 1st-order wrongly predicted functions were shown to be closely associated with the genes encoding the proteins. The so-called wrongly predicted functions could also potentially be correct upon future experimental verification. Therefore, the accuracy of the presented method may be much higher in reality. PMID:27846315

Assessment of Lower Missouri River physical aquatic habitat and its use by adult sturgeon (Genus Scaphirhynchus), 2005-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reuter, Joanna M.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Elliott, Caroline M.; DeLonay, Aaron J.

2009-01-01

This report presents an exploratory analysis of habitat availability and use by adult Scaphirhynchus sturgeon on the Lower Missouri River from Gavins Point Dam, South Dakota, to the junction with the Mississippi River. The analysis is based on two main data sources collected from 2005 to 2007: (1) a compilation of 153 reach-scale habitat maps (mean reach length, 2.4 kilometers) derived from boat-collected hydroacoustic data and (2) a sturgeon location dataset from which 378 sturgeon telemetry locations are associated with the maps (within 7 days of the mapping and within 10 percent of the discharge). The report focuses on: (1) longitudinal patterns of geomorphic and hydraulic characteristics revealed by the collection of reach maps; (2) assessment of environmental characteristics at sturgeon locations in the context of the mapped reaches; and (3) consideration of spatial distribution of habitat conditions that sturgeon appear to select. Longitudinal patterns of geomorphology, hydraulics, and associated habitats relate strongly to the engineered state of the river. Reaches within each of the following river sections tended to share similar geomorphic, hydrologic, and hydraulic characteristics: the Minimally Engineered section (Gavins Point Dam to Sioux City, Iowa), the Upstream Channelized section (Sioux City, Iowa, to the junction with the Kansas River), and the Downstream Channelized section (Kansas River to the junction with the Mississippi River). Adult sturgeon occupy nearly the full range of available values for each continuous variable assessed: depth, depth slope, depth-averaged velocity, velocity gradient, and Froude number (a dimensionless number relating velocity to depth). However, in the context of habitat available in a reach, sturgeon tend to select some areas over others. Reproductive female shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus), in particular, were often found in parts of the reach with one or more of the following characteristics: high velocity gradient, high depth slope, low Froude number, and low (though not necessarily the lowest) depth-averaged velocity. Depths used by sturgeon varied considerably. We explored spatial patterns representing the variable ranges that reproductive female shovelnose sturgeon most strongly and consistently selected by mapping areas within reaches meeting the following criteria: greater than the 80th percentile of depth slope, greater than the 80th percentile of velocity gradient, and less than the 20th percentile of Froude number. Our data exploration indicates that areas meeting these criteria have some predictive value regarding sturgeon habitat selection. Of all sturgeon locations that fall on maps from the same year (sample size = 2,013), about 63 percent fall within about 35 percent of the area where at least one variable meets the above criteria and 18 percent of locations fall within 4 percent of the area where all three variables meet the above criteria. The spatial patterns of these mapped areas show distinct differences among the sections of the Lower Missouri River. For example, the areas of predicted selection exhibit a relatively complex mosaic with multiple interconnected pathways in reaches of the Minimally Engineered section. In contrast, areas of predicted selection are concentrated along the channel margins in reaches of the Upstream Channelized section. Because the patterns described in this report represent habitat use in the context of the available habitat in a highly altered river system, selection may not necessarily indicate preferred habitats or habitats sufficient for reproduction and survival of sturgeon species.

Parameter optimization of the QUAL2K model for a multiple-reach river using an influence coefficient algorithm.

PubMed

Cho, Jae Heon; Ha, Sung Ryong

2010-03-15

An influence coefficient algorithm and a genetic algorithm (GA) were introduced to develop an automatic calibration model for QUAL2K, the latest version of the QUAL2E river and stream water-quality model. The influence coefficient algorithm was used for the parameter optimization in unsteady state, open channel flow. The GA, used in solving the optimization problem, is very simple and comprehensible yet still applicable to any complicated mathematical problem, where it can find the global-optimum solution quickly and effectively. The previously established model QUAL2Kw was used for the automatic calibration of the QUAL2K. The parameter-optimization method using the influence coefficient and genetic algorithm (POMIG) developed in this study and QUAL2Kw were each applied to the Gangneung Namdaecheon River, which has multiple reaches, and the results of the two models were compared. In the modeling, the river reach was divided into two parts based on considerations of the water quality and hydraulic characteristics. The calibration results by POMIG showed a good correspondence between the calculated and observed values for most of water-quality variables. In the application of POMIG and QUAL2Kw, relatively large errors were generated between the observed and predicted values in the case of the dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in the lowest part of the river; therefore, two weighting factors (1 and 5) were applied for DO and Chl-a in the lower river. The sums of the errors for DO and Chl-a with a weighting factor of 5 were slightly lower compared with the application of a factor of 1. However, with a weighting factor of 5 the sums of errors for other water-quality variables were slightly increased in comparison to the case with a factor of 1. Generally, the results of the POMIG were slightly better than those of the QUAL2Kw.

Prognostic Value of Exercise Treadmill Testing in Asymptomatic Chronic Nonischemic Mitral Regurgitation

PubMed Central

Supino, Phyllis G.; Borer, Jeffrey S.; Schuleri, Karlheinz; Gupta, Anuj; Hochreiter, Clare; Kligfield, Paul; Herrold, Edmund McM.; Preibisz, Jacek J.

2007-01-01

In many heart diseases, exercise treadmill testing(ETT) has useful functional correlates and/or prognostic value. However, its predictive value in mitral regurgitation(MR) is undefined. To determine whether ETT descriptors predict death or indications for mitral valve surgery among patients with MR, we prospectively followed, for 7±3 endpoint-free years, a cohort of 38 patients with chronic severe nonischemic MR who underwent modified Bruce ETT; all lacked surgical indications at study entry. Their baseline exercise descriptors also were compared with those from 46 patients with severe MR who, at entry, already had reached surgical indications. Endpoints during follow-up among the cohort included sudden death(n=1), heart failure symptoms(n=2), atrial fibrillation(n=4), LVEF<60%(n=2), LV systolic dimensions(IDs)≥45 mm(n=12) and LVIDs>40mm(n=11), LVEF<60%+LVIDs 45 mm(n=3), and heart failure+LVIDs 45mm+LVEF<60%(n=1). In univariate analysis, exercise duration(p=.004), chronotropic response(p=.007), percent predicted peak heart rate(p=.01) and heart rate recovery(p<.02) predicted events; in multivariate analysis, only exercise duration was predictive(p<.02). Average annual event risk was 5-fold lower(4.62%) with exercise duration≥15 minutes vs. <15 minutes(average annual risk=23.48%, p=.004). Relative risks among patients with and without exercise-inducible ST segment depression were comparable(≤1.3[NS]) whether defined at entry and/or during follow-up. Exercise duration, but not prevalence of exercise-inducible ST segment depression, was lower(p<.001) among patients with surgical indications at entry vs. initially endpoint-free patients. In conclusion, among asymptomatic patients with chronic severe nonischemic MR and no objective criteria for operation, progression to surgical indications generally is rapid. However, those with excellent exercise tolerance have a relatively benign course. Exercise-inducible ST segment depression has no prognostic value in this population. We followed, for 7±3 endpoint-free years, 38 patients with chronic severe nonischemic mitral regurgitation (MR) who underwent modified Bruce exercise treadmill testing (ETT) to determine whether ETT descriptors predict death or indications for mitral valve surgery. At study entry, all lacked surgical indications. Exercise duration independently predicted subsequent events; event risks among patients with and without exercise-inducible ST segment depression were comparable. We conclude that among asymptomatic patients with chronic severe nonischemic MR and no objective criteria for operation, those with excellent exercise tolerance have a relatively benign course. Exercise-inducible ST segment depression has no prognostic value in this population. PMID:17920370

Drift kinetic effects on the plasma response in high beta spherical tokamak experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Zhirui; Park, Jong-Kyu; Menard, Jonathan E.

The high β plasma response to rotating n = 1 external magnetic perturbations is numerically studied and compared with the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX). The hybrid magnetohydrodynamic(MHD)-kinetic modeling shows that drift kinetic effects are important in resolving the disagreement of plasma response between the ideal MHD prediction and the NSTX experimental observation when plasma pressure reaches and exceeds the no-wall limit. Since the external rotating fields and high plasma rotation are presented in the NSTX experiments, the importance of the resistive wall effect and plasma rotation in determining the plasma response is also identified, where the resistive wall suppressesmore » the plasma response through the wall eddy current. The inertial energy due to plasma rotation destabilizes the plasma. In conclusion, the complexity of the plasma response in this study indicates that MHD modeling, including comprehensive physics, e.g. the drift kinetic effects, resistive wall and plasma rotation, are essential in order to reliably predict the plasma behavior in a high beta spherical tokamak device.« less

Online monitoring of P(3HB) produced from used cooking oil with near-infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Cruz, Madalena V; Sarraguça, Mafalda Cruz; Freitas, Filomena; Lopes, João Almeida; Reis, Maria A M

2015-01-20

Online monitoring process for the production of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), using cooking oil (UCO) as the sole carbon source and Cupriavidus necator, was developed. A batch reactor was operated and hydroxybutyrate homopolymer was obtained. The biomass reached a maximum concentration of 11.6±1.7gL(-1) with a polymer content of 63±10.7% (w/w). The yield of product on substrate was 0.77±0.04gg(-1). Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used for online monitoring of the fermentation, using a transflectance probe. Partial least squares regression was applied to relate NIR spectra with biomass, UCO and PHA concentrations in the broth. The NIR predictions were compared with values obtained by offline reference methods. Prediction errors to these parameters were 1.18, 2.37 and 1.58gL(-1) for biomass, UCO and PHA, respectively, which indicate the suitability of the NIR spectroscopy method for online monitoring and as a method to assist bioreactor control. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A predictive analytic model for the solar modulation of cosmic rays

DOE PAGES

Cholis, Ilias; Hooper, Dan; Linden, Tim

2016-02-23

An important factor limiting our ability to understand the production and propagation of cosmic rays pertains to the effects of heliospheric forces, commonly known as solar modulation. The solar wind is capable of generating time- and charge-dependent effects on the spectrum and intensity of low-energy (≲10 GeV) cosmic rays reaching Earth. Previous analytic treatments of solar modulation have utilized the force-field approximation, in which a simple potential is adopted whose amplitude is selected to best fit the cosmic-ray data taken over a given period of time. Making use of recently available cosmic-ray data from the Voyager 1 spacecraft, along withmore » measurements of the heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind, we construct a time-, charge- and rigidity-dependent model of solar modulation that can be directly compared to data from a variety of cosmic-ray experiments. Here, we provide a simple analytic formula that can be easily utilized in a variety of applications, allowing us to better predict the effects of solar modulation and reduce the number of free parameters involved in cosmic-ray propagation models.« less

The energetics of low browsing in sauropods.

PubMed

Ruxton, Graeme D; Wilkinson, David M

2011-10-23

It has recently been argued that the probable high cost of travel for sauropod dinosaurs would have made exploiting high forage energetically attractive, if this reduced the need to travel between food patches. This argument was supported by simple calculations. Here, we take a similar approach to evaluate the energetics of foraging close to the ground. We predict that small extensions of the neck beyond the minimum required for the mouth to reach the ground bring substantial energetic savings. Each increment of length brings a further saving, but the sizes of such benefits decrease with increasing neck length. However, the observed neck length of around 9 m for Brachiosaurus (for example) is predicted to reduce the overall cost of foraging by 80 per cent, compared with a minimally necked individual. We argue that the long neck of the sauropods may have been under positive selection for low foraging (instead of, or as well as, exploitation of high foraging), if this long neck allowed a greater area of food to be exploited from a given position and thus reduced the energetically expensive movement of the whole animal.

Drift kinetic effects on plasma response in high beta spherical tokamak experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhirui; Park, Jong-Kyu; Menard, Jonathan E.; Liu, Yueqiang; Kaye, Stanley M.; Gerhardt, Stefan

2018-01-01

The high β plasma response to rotating n=1 external magnetic perturbations is numerically studied and compared with the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX). The hybrid magnetohydrodynamic(MHD)-kinetic modeling shows that drift kinetic effects are important in resolving the disagreement of plasma response between the ideal MHD prediction and the NSTX experimental observation when plasma pressure reaches and exceeds the no-wall limit (Troyon et al 1984 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 26 209). Since the external rotating fields and high plasma rotation are presented in the NSTX experiments, the importance of the resistive wall effect and plasma rotation in determining the plasma response is also identified, where the resistive wall suppresses the plasma response through the wall eddy current. The inertial energy due to plasma rotation destabilizes the plasma. The complexity of the plasma response in this study indicates that MHD modeling, including comprehensive physics, e.g. the drift kinetic effects, resistive wall and plasma rotation, are essential in order to reliably predict the plasma behavior in a high beta spherical tokamak device.

Numerical study of vortex rope during load rejection of a prototype pump-turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J. T.; Liu, S. H.; Sun, Y. K.; Wu, Y. L.; Wang, L. Q.

2012-11-01

A transient process of load rejection of a prototype pump-turbine was studied by three dimensional, unsteady simulations, as well as steady calculations.Dynamic mesh (DM) method and remeshing method were used to simulate the rotation of guide vanes and runner. The rotational speed of the runner was predicted by fluid couplingmethod. Both the transient calculation and steady calculation were performed based on turbulence model. Results show that steady calculation results have large error in the prediction of the external characteristics of the transient process. The runaway speed can reach 1.15 times the initial rotational speed during the transient process. The vortex rope occurs before the pump-turbine runs at zero moment point. Vortex rope has the same rotating direction with the runner. The vortex rope is separated into two parts as the flow rate decreases to 0. Pressure level decreases during the whole transient process.The transient simulation result were also compared and verified by experimental results. This computational method could be used in the fault diagnosis of transient operation, as well as the optimization of a transient process.

High-pressure liquid-monopropellant strand combustion.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faeth, G. M.

1972-01-01

Examination of the influence of dissolved gases on the state of the liquid surface during high-pressure liquid-monopropellant combustion through the use of a strand burning experiment. Liquid surface temperatures were measured, using fine-wire thermocouples, during the strand combustion of ethyl nitrate, normal propyl nitrate, and propylene glycol dinitrate at pressures up to 81 atm. These measurements were compared with the predictions of a variable-property gas-phase analysis assuming an infinite activation energy for the decomposition reaction. The state of the liquid surface was estimated using a conventional low-pressure phase equilibrium model, as well as a high-pressure version that considered the presence of dissolved combustion-product gases in the liquid phase. The high-pressure model was found to give a superior prediction of measured liquid surface temperatures. Computed total pressures required for the surface to reach its critical mixing point during strand combustion were found to be in the range from 2.15 to 4.62 times the critical pressure of the pure propellant. Computed dissolved gas concentrations at the liquid surface were in the range from 35 to 50% near the critical combustion condition.

Branching ratios and CP asymmetries of B→ χ _{c1}K(π ) decays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rui, Zhou; Zhao, Qiang; Zhang, Li-li

2018-06-01

We investigate the exclusive nonleptonic decays B→ χ _{c1}K(π ) in the conventional perturbative QCD (PQCD) formalism. The predictions of branching ratios and CP asymmetries are given in detail. We compare our results with available experimental data as well as predictions of other theoretical studies existing in the literature. It seems that the branching ratios of B→ χ _{c1} K are more consistent with data than the earlier analyses. For the Cabibbo-suppressed B_s decays, the branching ratios can reach the order of 10^{-5}, which would be straight forward for experimental observations. The numerical results show that the direct CP asymmetries of the concerned decays are rather small. The mixing-induced CP asymmetry in the B^0→ χ _{c1}K_S is very close to sin {2β }, which suggests that this channel offer an alternative method for measuring the Cabbibo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) angle β . The obtained results in the present work could be tested by further experiments in the LHCb and forthcoming Belle II.

Telescope Array UHECR composition measurement via stereoscopic fluorescence observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroman, Thomas; Bergman, Douglas; Telescope Array Collaboration

2016-03-01

When entering Earth's atmosphere at ultra-high energies, cosmic rays (UHECRs) produce extensive air showers whose longitudinal development is influenced by the incident primary particle's mass. Each longitudinal shower profile reaches its maximum particle count at an atmospheric slant depth Xmax, and the distributions of observed Xmax values can be compared to those predicted by detailed simulations of the air-shower physics and the detector; accurately simulated compositions that most closely resemble that found in nature will produce the best agreement between predicted and observed Xmax distributions. This is the basis of composition measurement at the Telescope Array experiment, the largest and most sensitive UHECR detector in the northern hemisphere. At the perimeter of a large surface-detector array are three fluorescence telescope stations, whose overlapping apertures enable high-precision reconstruction of Xmax from stereoscopic observation of air-shower longitudinal profiles. We present the distribution of Xmax observed during eight years of operation, and from comparisons with several simulated combinations of composition and high-energy hadronic physics, we show that a low primary mass is favored at E >10 18 . 2 eV.

Drift kinetic effects on the plasma response in high beta spherical tokamak experiments

DOE PAGES

Wang, Zhirui; Park, Jong-Kyu; Menard, Jonathan E.; ...

2017-09-21

The high β plasma response to rotating n = 1 external magnetic perturbations is numerically studied and compared with the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX). The hybrid magnetohydrodynamic(MHD)-kinetic modeling shows that drift kinetic effects are important in resolving the disagreement of plasma response between the ideal MHD prediction and the NSTX experimental observation when plasma pressure reaches and exceeds the no-wall limit. Since the external rotating fields and high plasma rotation are presented in the NSTX experiments, the importance of the resistive wall effect and plasma rotation in determining the plasma response is also identified, where the resistive wall suppressesmore » the plasma response through the wall eddy current. The inertial energy due to plasma rotation destabilizes the plasma. In conclusion, the complexity of the plasma response in this study indicates that MHD modeling, including comprehensive physics, e.g. the drift kinetic effects, resistive wall and plasma rotation, are essential in order to reliably predict the plasma behavior in a high beta spherical tokamak device.« less

The importance of understanding: Model space moderates goal specificity effects.

PubMed

Kistner, Saskia; Burns, Bruce D; Vollmeyer, Regina; Kortenkamp, Ulrich

2016-01-01

The three-space theory of problem solving predicts that the quality of a learner's model and the goal specificity of a task interact on knowledge acquisition. In Experiment 1 participants used a computer simulation of a lever system to learn about torques. They either had to test hypotheses (nonspecific goal), or to produce given values for variables (specific goal). In the good- but not in the poor-model condition they saw torque depicted as an area. Results revealed the predicted interaction. A nonspecific goal only resulted in better learning when a good model of torques was provided. In Experiment 2 participants learned to manipulate the inputs of a system to control its outputs. A nonspecific goal to explore the system helped performance when compared to a specific goal to reach certain values when participants were given a good model, but not when given a poor model that suggested the wrong hypothesis space. Our findings support the three-space theory. They emphasize the importance of understanding for problem solving and stress the need to study underlying processes.

Ultra-strong coupling in a transmon circuit architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosman, Sal; Gely, Mario; Singh, Vibhor; Bruno, Alessandro; Steele, Gary

New unexplored phenomena are predicted in cQED for the ultra-strong coupling (USC) regime and beyond. Here, we explore two strategies to increase the coupling between a transmon qubit and a microwave resonator. In the first approach, we increase the impedance of the resonator, enhancing it's voltage zero-point fluctuations, and measure a vacuum Rabi splitting of 916 MHz. In a second approach, we create a transmon qubit by making a superconducting island suspended above the center conductor of the resonator and which is shorted to ground by two Josephson junctions. Doing so, we maximize the dipole moment of the qubit and observe a vacuum Rabi splitting of 1.2 GHz with a qubit linewidth of 1 MHz. This first transmon qubit in the USC regime improves the coherence time by a factor of 100 compared to other systems in the USC limit. Finally we predict that by combining both approaches, a coupling of ~ 3 . 6 GHz is possible, reaching close to the deep strong coupling limit. The work was supported by the Dutch science foundation NWO/FOM.

Assessing the capability of numerical methods to predict earthquake ground motion: the Euroseistest verification and validation project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaljub, E. O.; Bard, P.; Tsuno, S.; Kristek, J.; Moczo, P.; Franek, P.; Hollender, F.; Manakou, M.; Raptakis, D.; Pitilakis, K.

2009-12-01

During the last decades, an important effort has been dedicated to develop accurate and computationally efficient numerical methods to predict earthquake ground motion in heterogeneous 3D media. The progress in methods and increasing capability of computers have made it technically feasible to calculate realistic seismograms for frequencies of interest in seismic design applications. In order to foster the use of numerical simulation in practical prediction, it is important to (1) evaluate the accuracy of current numerical methods when applied to realistic 3D applications where no reference solution exists (verification) and (2) quantify the agreement between recorded and numerically simulated earthquake ground motion (validation). Here we report the results of the Euroseistest verification and validation project - an ongoing international collaborative work organized jointly by the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, the Cashima research project (supported by the French nuclear agency, CEA, and the Laue-Langevin institute, ILL, Grenoble), and the Joseph Fourier University, Grenoble, France. The project involves more than 10 international teams from Europe, Japan and USA. The teams employ the Finite Difference Method (FDM), the Finite Element Method (FEM), the Global Pseudospectral Method (GPSM), the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and the Discrete Element Method (DEM). The project makes use of a new detailed 3D model of the Mygdonian basin (about 5 km wide, 15 km long, sediments reach about 400 m depth, surface S-wave velocity is 200 m/s). The prime target is to simulate 8 local earthquakes with magnitude from 3 to 5. In the verification, numerical predictions for frequencies up to 4 Hz for a series of models with increasing structural and rheological complexity are analyzed and compared using quantitative time-frequency goodness-of-fit criteria. Predictions obtained by one FDM team and the SEM team are close and different from other predictions (consistent with the ESG2006 exercise which targeted the Grenoble Valley). Diffractions off the basin edges and induced surface-wave propagation mainly contribute to differences between predictions. The differences are particularly large in the elastic models but remain important also in models with attenuation. In the validation, predictions are compared with the recordings by a local array of 19 surface and borehole accelerometers. The level of agreement is found event-dependent. For the largest-magnitude event the agreement is surprisingly good even at high frequencies.

Reaching for the Unreachable: Reorganization of Reaching with Walking

PubMed Central

Grzyb, Beata J.; Smith, Linda B.; del Pobil, Angel P.

2015-01-01

Previous research suggests that reaching and walking behaviors may be linked developmentally as reaching changes at the onset of walking. Here we report new evidence on an apparent loss of the distinction between the reachable and nonreachable distances as children start walking. The experiment compared nonwalkers, walkers with help, and independent walkers in a reaching task to targets at varying distances. Reaching attempts, contact, leaning, and communication behaviors were recorded. Most of the children reached for the unreachable objects the first time it was presented. Nonwalkers, however, reached less on the subsequent trials showing clear adjustment of their reaching decisions with the failures. On the contrary, walkers consistently attempted reaches to targets at unreachable distances. We suggest that these reaching errors may result from inappropriate integration of reaching and locomotor actions, attention control and near/far visual space. We propose a reward-mediated model implemented on a NAO humanoid robot that replicates the main results from our study showing an increase in reaching attempts to nonreachable distances after the onset of walking. PMID:26110046

Refining Stimulus Parameters in Assessing Infant Speech Perception Using Visual Reinforcement Infant Speech Discrimination: Sensation Level.

PubMed

Uhler, Kristin M; Baca, Rosalinda; Dudas, Emily; Fredrickson, Tammy

2015-01-01

Speech perception measures have long been considered an integral piece of the audiological assessment battery. Currently, a prelinguistic, standardized measure of speech perception is missing in the clinical assessment battery for infants and young toddlers. Such a measure would allow systematic assessment of speech perception abilities of infants as well as the potential to investigate the impact early identification of hearing loss and early fitting of amplification have on the auditory pathways. To investigate the impact of sensation level (SL) on the ability of infants with normal hearing (NH) to discriminate /a-i/ and /ba-da/ and to determine if performance on the two contrasts are significantly different in predicting the discrimination criterion. The design was based on a survival analysis model for event occurrence and a repeated measures logistic model for binary outcomes. The outcome for survival analysis was the minimum SL for criterion and the outcome for the logistic regression model was the presence/absence of achieving the criterion. Criterion achievement was designated when an infant's proportion correct score was >0.75 on the discrimination performance task. Twenty-two infants with NH sensitivity participated in this study. There were 9 males and 13 females, aged 6-14 mo. Testing took place over two to three sessions. The first session consisted of a hearing test, threshold assessment of the two speech sounds (/a/ and /i/), and if time and attention allowed, visual reinforcement infant speech discrimination (VRISD). The second session consisted of VRISD assessment for the two test contrasts (/a-i/ and /ba-da/). The presentation level started at 50 dBA. If the infant was unable to successfully achieve criterion (>0.75) at 50 dBA, the presentation level was increased to 70 dBA followed by 60 dBA. Data examination included an event analysis, which provided the probability of criterion distribution across SL. The second stage of the analysis was a repeated measures logistic regression where SL and contrast were used to predict the likelihood of speech discrimination criterion. Infants were able to reach criterion for the /a-i/ contrast at statistically lower SLs when compared to /ba-da/. There were six infants who never reached criterion for /ba-da/ and one never reached criterion for /a-i/. The conditional probability of not reaching criterion by 70 dB SL was 0% for /a-i/ and 21% for /ba-da/. The predictive logistic regression model showed that children were more likely to discriminate the /a-i/ even when controlling for SL. Nearly all normal-hearing infants can demonstrate discrimination criterion of a vowel contrast at 60 dB SL, while a level of ≥70 dB SL may be needed to allow all infants to demonstrate discrimination criterion of a difficult consonant contrast. American Academy of Audiology.

Physics of badminton shuttlecocks. Part 1 : aerodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Caroline; Darbois Texier, Baptiste; Quéré, David; Clanet, Christophe

2011-11-01

We study experimentally shuttlecocks dynamics. In this part we show that shuttlecock trajectory is highly different from classical parabola. When one takes into account the aerodynamic drag, the flight of the shuttlecock quickly curves downwards and almost reaches a vertical asymptote. We solve the equation of motion with gravity and drag at high Reynolds number and find an analytical expression of the reach. At high velocity, this reach does not depend on velocity anymore. Even if you develop your muscles you will not manage to launch the shuttlecock very far because of the ``aerodynamic wall.'' As a consequence you can predict the length of the field. We then discuss the extend of the aerodynamic wall to other projectiles like sports balls and its importance.

Re-engineering the interpretation of electronic fetal monitoring to identify reversible risk for cerebral palsy: a case control series.

PubMed

Evans, Mark I; Eden, Robert D; Britt, David W; Evans, Shara M; Schifrin, Barry S

2018-02-28

Even key opinion leaders now concede that electronic fetal monitoring (EFM) cannot reliably identify fetal acidemia which many vouch as the only labor mediated pathophysiologic precursor for cerebral palsy (CP). We have developed the "Fetal Reserve Index" - an algorithm combining five dynamic components of EFM (1. Rate, 2. Variability, 3. Accelerations, 4. Decelerations, and 5. Excessive uterine activity) considered individually that are combined with the presence of: 6. maternal, 7. obstetrical, and 8. fetal risk factors. Here, we compare this 8-point fetal reserve index (FRI) against the performance of ACOG monograph criteria and ACOG Category systems for predicting risk for both CP and the need for emergency operative delivery (EOD). We then studied how varied management for screen positives (Red zone-defined below) impacts the outcome of such cases. Four hundred twenty term patients were studied: all entered labor with normal EFMs and no apparent cause of harm except events of labor and delivery. Sixty subsequently developed CP, and 360 were apparently normal controls. An FRI, normal on all eight parameters scored 100%, 4 of the 8 was 50%, etc. We divided cases into Green zone >50%, Yellow 50-26%, and Red ≤25%. An FRI in the Red zone was considered a positive screen. We then compared performance metrics for the three evaluation schemes and differences between controls that reached Red against those controls whose worst scores were Green/Yellow. For detection of injury during labor, the FRI performed much better than the ACOG Category criteria (sensitivity 28%), and Category III (45%) (p < .001). All CP cases reached Red zone and were Red for a minimum of 2 hours (mean = 5.35 hours). Twenty-four% of controls reached Red, but were only Red for average of 1 hr. The incidence of low Apgar's, pH, FRI, and Lowest FRI increased progressively from Green/Yellow controls to red controls to CP cases. Irrespective, CP cases met ACOG Monograph criteria for labor injury less than 50% of the time. Only half of CP babies had umbilical artery pH values <7.00, and less than 50% showed Category III patterns. The earlier in labor the Red zone was reached, the more likely for a baby to develop CP or the mother to require an EOD regardless of fetal outcome. Successful intrauterine resuscitations (IR) diminished time spent in the Red zone and the need for EODs. FRI shows better discrimination for adverse fetal outcome and EOD than traditional EFM interpretation. The Category system is a very poor, subjective screening method as the vast majority of CP babies never reach the "action point" result of Category III. While reaching the Red zone does not ordain a bad outcome, how it is managed, does. Compared to CP cases, Red controls were delivered faster, had higher FRIs, and often had prompt management including IR maneuvers, which improved the FRI and lowered the risk of EODs even for cases with normal outcomes. With further study and validation, the quantitative FRI approach may replace the current, very subjective interpretation with a quantitative "lab test" approach.

Non-invasive prediction of catheter ablation outcome in persistent atrial fibrillation by fibrillatory wave amplitude computation in multiple electrocardiogram leads.

PubMed

Zarzoso, Vicente; Latcu, Decebal G; Hidalgo-Muñoz, Antonio R; Meo, Marianna; Meste, Olivier; Popescu, Irina; Saoudi, Nadir

2016-12-01

Catheter ablation (CA) of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) is challenging, and reported results are capable of improvement. A better patient selection for the procedure could enhance its success rate while avoiding the risks associated with ablation, especially for patients with low odds of favorable outcome. CA outcome can be predicted non-invasively by atrial fibrillatory wave (f-wave) amplitude, but previous works focused mostly on manual measures in single electrocardiogram (ECG) leads only. To assess the long-term prediction ability of f-wave amplitude when computed in multiple ECG leads. Sixty-two patients with persistent AF (52 men; mean age 61.5±10.4years) referred for CA were enrolled. A standard 1-minute 12-lead ECG was acquired before the ablation procedure for each patient. F-wave amplitudes in different ECG leads were computed by a non-invasive signal processing algorithm, and combined into a mutivariate prediction model based on logistic regression. During an average follow-up of 13.9±8.3months, 47 patients had no AF recurrence after ablation. A lead selection approach relying on the Wald index pointed to I, V1, V2 and V5 as the most relevant ECG leads to predict jointly CA outcome using f-wave amplitudes, reaching an area under the curve of 0.854, and improving on single-lead amplitude-based predictors. Analysing the f-wave amplitude in several ECG leads simultaneously can significantly improve CA long-term outcome prediction in persistent AF compared with predictors based on single-lead measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Optimization of drug-drug interaction study design: comparison of minimal physiologically based pharmacokinetic models on prediction of CYP3A inhibition by ketoconazole.

PubMed

Han, Bing; Mao, Jialin; Chien, Jenny Y; Hall, Stephen D

2013-07-01

Ketoconazole is a potent CYP3A inhibitor used to assess the contribution of CYP3A to drug clearance and quantify the increase in drug exposure due to a strong inhibitor. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have been used to evaluate treatment regimens resulting in maximal CYP3A inhibition by ketoconazole but have reached different conclusions. We compare two PBPK models of the ketoconazole-midazolam interaction, model 1 (Chien et al., 2006) and model 2 implemented in Simcyp (version 11), to predict 16 published treatment regimens. With use of model 2, 41% of the study point estimates of area under the curve (AUC) ratio and 71% of the 90% confidence intervals were predicted within 1.5-fold of the observed, but these increased to 82 and 100%, respectively, with model 1. For midazolam, model 2 predicted a maximal midazolam AUC ratio of 8 and a hepatic fraction metabolized by CYP3A (f(m)) of 0.97, whereas model 1 predicted 17 and 0.90, respectively, which are more consistent with observed data. On the basis of model 1, ketoconazole (400 mg QD) for at least 3 days and substrate administration within 2 hours is required for maximal CYP3A inhibition. Ketoconazole treatment regimens that use 200 mg BID underestimate the systemic fraction metabolized by CYP3A (0.86 versus 0.90) for midazolam. The systematic underprediction also applies to CYP3A substrates with high bioavailability and long half-lives. The superior predictive performance of model 1 reflects the need for accumulation of ketoconazole at enzyme site and protracted inhibition. Model 2 is not recommended for inferring optimal study design and estimation of fraction metabolized by CYP3A.

Associations of physical activity and sedentary behaviour with metabolic syndrome in rural Australian adults.

PubMed

Mitchell, Braden L; Smith, Ashleigh E; Rowlands, Alex V; Parfitt, Gaynor; Dollman, James

2018-05-22

Associations between objectively measured sedentary behaviour, physical activity (PA) and metabolic syndrome (MetS)-classified using three different definitions were investigated in an inactive sample of rural Australian adults. Quantitative, cross-sectional. 171 adults (50.7±12.4years) from two rural South Australian regions underwent seven-day accelerometer activity monitoring and MetS classification using the National Cholesterol Education Program, the International Diabetes Federation and the Harmonized definitions. Associations between sedentary and activity variables and MetS (adjusted for age, sex, diet and smoking status) were modelled using logistic regression. In secondary modelling, associations of sedentary and activity outcomes for each MetS definition were assessed, adjusting for other activity and sedentary variables. Prediction differences across the definitions of MetS were directly compared using Akaike's Information Criterion. Sedentary behaviour increased MetS risk, whereas light physical activity (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) reduced MetS risk, irrespective of definition. In secondary models, LPA predicted MetS independently of MVPA and total sedentary time. Time spent in sedentary bouts (>30min) predicted MetS independently of MVPA and the number of sedentary bouts predicted MetS independently of LPA and MVPA. Prediction differences for MetS definitions failed to reach the critical threshold for difference (>10). This study highlights the importance of sedentary behaviour and LPA on the prevalence of MetS in an inactive sample of rural Australian adults. Studies assessing the efficacy of increasing LPA on MetS in this population are needed. Minimal predictive differences across the three MetS definitions suggest evidence from previous studies can be considered cumulative. Copyright © 2018 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Timed Stair Climbing is the Single Strongest Predictor of Perioperative Complications in Patients Undergoing Abdominal Surgery

PubMed Central

Reddy, Sushanth; Contreras, Carlo M; Singletary, Brandon; Bradford, T Miller; Waldrop, Mary G; Mims, Andrew H; Smedley, W Andrew; Swords, Jacob A; Thomas N, Wang; Martin J, Heslin

2016-01-01

Background Current methods to predict patients' peri-operative morbidity utilize complex algorithms with multiple clinical variables focusing primarily on organ-specific compromise. The aim of the present study is to determine the value of a timed stair climb (SC) in predicting peri-operative complications for patients undergoing abdominal surgery. Study Design From March 2014 to July 2015, 362 patients attempted SC while being timed prior to undergoing elective abdominal surgery. Vital signs were measured before and after SC. Ninety day post-operative complications were assessed by the Accordion Severity Grading System. The prognostic value of SC was compared to the ACS NSQIP risk calculator. Results A total of 264 (97.4%) patients were able to complete SC. SC time directly correlated to changes in both mean arterial pressure and heart rate as an indicator of stress. An Accordion grade 2 or higher complication occurred in 84 (25%) patients. There were 8 mortalities (2.4%). Patients with slower SC times had an increased complication rate (P<0.0001). In multivariable analysis SC time was the single strongest predictor of complications (OR=1.029, P<0.0001), and no other clinical co-morbidity reached statistical significance. Receiver operative characteristic curves predicting post-operative morbidity by SC time was superior to that of the ACS risk calculator (AUC 0.81 vs. 0.62, P<0.0001). Additionally slower patients had a greater deviation from predicted length of hospital stay (P=0.034) Conclusions SC provides measurable stress, accurately predicts post-operative complications, and is easy to administer in patients undergoing abdominal surgery. Larger patient populations with a diverse group of operations will be needed to further validate the use of SC in risk prediction models. PMID:26920993

Multi-level machine learning prediction of protein-protein interactions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

Zubek, Julian; Tatjewski, Marcin; Boniecki, Adam; Mnich, Maciej; Basu, Subhadip; Plewczynski, Dariusz

2015-01-01

Accurate identification of protein-protein interactions (PPI) is the key step in understanding proteins' biological functions, which are typically context-dependent. Many existing PPI predictors rely on aggregated features from protein sequences, however only a few methods exploit local information about specific residue contacts. In this work we present a two-stage machine learning approach for prediction of protein-protein interactions. We start with the carefully filtered data on protein complexes available for Saccharomyces cerevisiae in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) database. First, we build linear descriptions of interacting and non-interacting sequence segment pairs based on their inter-residue distances. Secondly, we train machine learning classifiers to predict binary segment interactions for any two short sequence fragments. The final prediction of the protein-protein interaction is done using the 2D matrix representation of all-against-all possible interacting sequence segments of both analysed proteins. The level-I predictor achieves 0.88 AUC for micro-scale, i.e., residue-level prediction. The level-II predictor improves the results further by a more complex learning paradigm. We perform 30-fold macro-scale, i.e., protein-level cross-validation experiment. The level-II predictor using PSIPRED-predicted secondary structure reaches 0.70 precision, 0.68 recall, and 0.70 AUC, whereas other popular methods provide results below 0.6 threshold (recall, precision, AUC). Our results demonstrate that multi-scale sequence features aggregation procedure is able to improve the machine learning results by more than 10% as compared to other sequence representations. Prepared datasets and source code for our experimental pipeline are freely available for download from: http://zubekj.github.io/mlppi/ (open source Python implementation, OS independent).

Predicting adult weight change in the real world: a systematic review and meta-analysis accounting for compensatory changes in energy intake or expenditure.

PubMed

Dhurandhar, E J; Kaiser, K A; Dawson, J A; Alcorn, A S; Keating, K D; Allison, D B

2015-08-01

Public health and clinical interventions for obesity in free-living adults may be diminished by individual compensation for the intervention. Approaches to predict weight outcomes do not account for all mechanisms of compensation, so they are not well suited to predict outcomes in free-living adults. Our objective was to quantify the range of compensation in energy intake or expenditure observed in human randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We searched multiple databases (PubMed, CINAHL, SCOPUS, Cochrane, ProQuest, PsycInfo) up to 1 August 2012 for RCTs evaluating the effect of dietary and/or physical activity interventions on body weight/composition. subjects per treatment arm ≥5; ≥1 week intervention; a reported outcome of body weight/body composition; the intervention was either a prescribed amount of over- or underfeeding and/or supervised or monitored physical activity was prescribed; ≥80% compliance; and an objective method was used to verify compliance with the intervention (for example, observation and electronic monitoring). Data were independently extracted and analyzed by multiple reviewers with consensus reached by discussion. We compared observed weight change with predicted weight change using two models that predict weight change accounting only for metabolic compensation. Twenty-eight studies met inclusion criteria. Overfeeding studies indicate 96% less weight gain than expected if no compensation occurred. Dietary restriction and exercise studies may result in up to 12-44% and 55-64% less weight loss than expected, respectively, under an assumption of no behavioral compensation. Compensation is substantial even in high-compliance conditions, resulting in far less weight change than would be expected. The simple algorithm we report allows for more realistic predictions of intervention effects in free-living populations by accounting for the significant compensation that occurs.

Machine Learning Algorithm Predicts Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy Outcomes: Lessons From the COMPANION Trial.

PubMed

Kalscheur, Matthew M; Kipp, Ryan T; Tattersall, Matthew C; Mei, Chaoqun; Buhr, Kevin A; DeMets, David L; Field, Michael E; Eckhardt, Lee L; Page, C David

2018-01-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reduces morbidity and mortality in heart failure patients with reduced left ventricular function and intraventricular conduction delay. However, individual outcomes vary significantly. This study sought to use a machine learning algorithm to develop a model to predict outcomes after CRT. Models were developed with machine learning algorithms to predict all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization at 12 months post-CRT in the COMPANION trial (Comparison of Medical Therapy, Pacing, and Defibrillation in Heart Failure). The best performing model was developed with the random forest algorithm. The ability of this model to predict all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization and all-cause mortality alone was compared with discrimination obtained using a combination of bundle branch block morphology and QRS duration. In the 595 patients with CRT-defibrillator in the COMPANION trial, 105 deaths occurred (median follow-up, 15.7 months). The survival difference across subgroups differentiated by bundle branch block morphology and QRS duration did not reach significance ( P =0.08). The random forest model produced quartiles of patients with an 8-fold difference in survival between those with the highest and lowest predicted probability for events (hazard ratio, 7.96; P <0.0001). The model also discriminated the risk of the composite end point of all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization better than subgroups based on bundle branch block morphology and QRS duration. In the COMPANION trial, a machine learning algorithm produced a model that predicted clinical outcomes after CRT. Applied before device implant, this model may better differentiate outcomes over current clinical discriminators and improve shared decision-making with patients. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Mean Expected Error in Prediction of Total Body Water: A True Accuracy Comparison between Bioimpedance Spectroscopy and Single Frequency Regression Equations

PubMed Central

Abtahi, Shirin; Abtahi, Farhad; Ellegård, Lars; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Bosaeus, Ingvar

2015-01-01

For several decades electrical bioimpedance (EBI) has been used to assess body fluid distribution and body composition. Despite the development of several different approaches for assessing total body water (TBW), it remains uncertain whether bioimpedance spectroscopic (BIS) approaches are more accurate than single frequency regression equations. The main objective of this study was to answer this question by calculating the expected accuracy of a single measurement for different EBI methods. The results of this study showed that all methods produced similarly high correlation and concordance coefficients, indicating good accuracy as a method. Even the limits of agreement produced from the Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the performance of single frequency, Sun's prediction equations, at population level was close to the performance of both BIS methods; however, when comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value between the single frequency prediction equations and the BIS methods, a significant difference was obtained, indicating slightly better accuracy for the BIS methods. Despite the higher accuracy of BIS methods over 50 kHz prediction equations at both population and individual level, the magnitude of the improvement was small. Such slight improvement in accuracy of BIS methods is suggested insufficient to warrant their clinical use where the most accurate predictions of TBW are required, for example, when assessing over-fluidic status on dialysis. To reach expected errors below 4-5%, novel and individualized approaches must be developed to improve the accuracy of bioimpedance-based methods for the advent of innovative personalized health monitoring applications. PMID:26137489

Deja Vu All Over Again: The Reappearance of Supernova Refsdal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, P. L.; Rodney, S. A.; Treu, T.; Strolger, L.-G.; Foley, R. J.; Jha, S. W.; Selsing, J.; Brammer, G.; Bradač, M.; Cenko, S. B.; Graur, O.; Filippenko, A. V.; Hjorth, J.; McCully, C.; Molino, A.; Nonino, M.; Riess, A. G.; Schmidt, K. B.; Tucker, B.; von der Linden, A.; Weiner, B. J.; Zitrin, A.

2016-03-01

In Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging taken on 2014 November 10, four images of supernova (SN) “Refsdal” (redshift z = 1.49) appeared in an Einstein-cross-like configuration (images S1-S4) around an early-type galaxy in the cluster MACS J1149.5+2223 (z = 0.54). Almost all lens models of the cluster have predicted that the SN should reappear within a year in a second host-galaxy image created by the cluster’s potential. In HST observations taken on 2015 December 11, we find a new source at the predicted position of the new image of SN Refsdal approximately 8\\prime\\prime from the previous images S1-S4. This marks the first time the appearance of a SN at a particular time and location in the sky was successfully predicted in advance! We use these data and the light curve from the first four observed images of SN Refsdal to place constraints on the relative time delay and magnification of the new image (SX) compared to images S1-S4. This enables us, for the first time, to test “blind” lens model predictions of both magnifications and time delays for a lensed SN. We find that the timing and brightness of the new image are consistent with the blind predictions of a fraction of the models. The reappearance illustrates the discriminatory power of this blind test and its utility to uncover sources of systematic uncertainty. From planned HST photometry, we expect to reach a precision of 1%-2% on the time delay between S1-S4 and SX.