Development of the hybrid sulfur cycle for use with concentrated solar heat. I. Conceptual design

DOE PAGES

Gorensek, Maximilian B.; Corgnale, Claudio; Summers, William A.

2017-07-27

We propose a detailed conceptual design of a solar hybrid sulfur (HyS) cycle. Numerous design tradeoffs, including process operating conditions and strategies, methods of integration with solar energy sources, and solar design options were considered. A baseline design was selected, and process flowsheets were developed. Pinch analyses were performed to establish the limiting energy efficiency. Detailed material and energy balances were completed, and a full stream table prepared. Design assumptions include use of: location in the southwest US desert, falling particle concentrated solar receiver, indirect heat transfer via pressurized helium, continuous operation with thermal energy storage, liquid-fed electrolyzer with PBImore » membrane, and bayonet-type acid decomposer. Thermochemical cycle efficiency for the HyS process was estimated to be 35.0%, LHV basis. The solar-to-hydrogen (STH) energy conversion ratio was 16.9%. This thus exceeds the Year 2015 DOE STCH target of STH >10%, and shows promise for meeting the Year 2020 target of 20%.« less

Development of the hybrid sulfur cycle for use with concentrated solar heat. I. Conceptual design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorensek, Maximilian B.; Corgnale, Claudio; Summers, William A.

We propose a detailed conceptual design of a solar hybrid sulfur (HyS) cycle. Numerous design tradeoffs, including process operating conditions and strategies, methods of integration with solar energy sources, and solar design options were considered. A baseline design was selected, and process flowsheets were developed. Pinch analyses were performed to establish the limiting energy efficiency. Detailed material and energy balances were completed, and a full stream table prepared. Design assumptions include use of: location in the southwest US desert, falling particle concentrated solar receiver, indirect heat transfer via pressurized helium, continuous operation with thermal energy storage, liquid-fed electrolyzer with PBImore » membrane, and bayonet-type acid decomposer. Thermochemical cycle efficiency for the HyS process was estimated to be 35.0%, LHV basis. The solar-to-hydrogen (STH) energy conversion ratio was 16.9%. This thus exceeds the Year 2015 DOE STCH target of STH >10%, and shows promise for meeting the Year 2020 target of 20%.« less

Lower Ionosphere Sensitivity to Solar X-ray Flares Over a Complete Solar Cycle Evaluated From VLF Signal Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macotela, Edith L.; Raulin, Jean-Pierre; Manninen, Jyrki; Correia, Emília; Turunen, Tauno; Magalhães, Antonio

2017-12-01

The daytime lower ionosphere behaves as a solar X-ray flare detector, which can be monitored using very low frequency (VLF) radio waves that propagate inside the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. In this paper, we infer the lower ionosphere sensitivity variation over a complete solar cycle by using the minimum X-ray fluence (FXmin) necessary to produce a disturbance of the quiescent ionospheric conductivity. FXmin is the photon energy flux integrated over the time interval from the start of a solar X-ray flare to the beginning of the ionospheric disturbance recorded as amplitude deviation of the VLF signal. FXmin is computed for ionospheric disturbances that occurred in the time interval of December-January from 2007 to 2016 (solar cycle 24). The computation of FXmin uses the X-ray flux in the wavelength band below 0.2 nm and the amplitude of VLF signals transmitted from France (HWU), Turkey (TBB), and U.S. (NAA), which were recorded in Brazil, Finland, and Peru. The main result of this study is that the long-term variation of FXmin is correlated with the level of solar activity, having FXmin values in the range (1 - 12) × 10-7 J/m2. Our result suggests that FXmin is anticorrelated with the lower ionosphere sensitivity, confirming that the long-term variation of the ionospheric sensitivity is anticorrelated with the level of solar activity. This result is important to identify the minimum X-ray fluence that an external source of ionization must overcome in order to produce a measurable ionospheric disturbance during daytime.

Preserving a Unique Archive for Long-Term Solar Variability Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, David F.; Hewins, Ian; McFadden, Robert; Emery, Barbara; Gibson, Sarah; Denig, William

2016-05-01

In 1964 (solar cycle 20) Patrick McIntosh began creating hand-drawn synoptic maps of solar activity, based on Hydrogen alpha (Hα) imaging measurements. These synoptic maps were unique because they traced the polarity inversion lines (PILs), connecting widely separated filaments, fibril patterns and plage corridors to reveal the large-scale organization of the solar magnetic field. He and his assistants later included coronal hole (CH) boundaries to the maps, usually from ground-based He-I 10830 images. They continued making these maps until 2010 (the start of solar cycle 24), yielding more than 40 years (~ 540 Carrington rotations) or nearly four complete solar cycles (SCs) of synoptic maps. The McIntosh collection of maps forms a unique and consistent set of global solar magnetic field data, and are unique tools for studying the structure and evolution of the large-scale solar fields and polarity boundaries, because: 1) they have excellent spatial resolution for defining polarity boundaries, 2) the organization of the fields into long-lived, coherent features is clear, and 3) the data are relatively homogeneous over four solar cycles. After digitization and archiving, these maps -- along with computer codes permitting efficient searches of the map arrays -- will be made publicly available at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in their final, searchable form. This poster is a progress report of the project so far and some suggested scientific applications.

The Effect of "Rogue" Active Regions on the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, Melinda; Lemerle, Alexandre; Labonville, François; Petrovay, Kristóf; Charbonneau, Paul

2017-11-01

The origin of cycle-to-cycle variations in solar activity is currently the focus of much interest. It has recently been pointed out that large individual active regions with atypical properties can have a significant impact on the long-term behavior of solar activity. We investigate this possibility in more detail using a recently developed 2×2D dynamo model of the solar magnetic cycle. We find that even a single "rogue" bipolar magnetic region (BMR) in the simulations can have a major effect on the further development of solar activity cycles, boosting or suppressing the amplitude of subsequent cycles. In extreme cases, an individual BMR can completely halt the dynamo, triggering a grand minimum. Rogue BMRs also have the potential to induce significant hemispheric asymmetries in the solar cycle. To study the effect of rogue BMRs in a more systematic manner, a series of dynamo simulations were conducted, in which a large test BMR was manually introduced in the model at various phases of cycles of different amplitudes. BMRs emerging in the rising phase of a cycle can modify the amplitude of the ongoing cycle, while BMRs emerging in later phases will only affect subsequent cycles. In this model, the strongest effect on the subsequent cycle occurs when the rogue BMR emerges around cycle maximum at low latitudes, but the BMR does not need to be strictly cross-equatorial. Active regions emerging as far as 20° from the equator can still have a significant effect. We demonstrate that the combined effect of the magnetic flux, tilt angle, and polarity separation of the BMR on the dynamo is via their contribution to the dipole moment, δ D_{BMR}. Our results indicate that prediction of the amplitude, starting epoch, and duration of a cycle requires an accurate accounting of a broad range of active regions emerging in the previous cycle.

Coupling of the Matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields of the Sun with Jupiter and its Moons Together in Nearest Portion of Jupiter's Orbit to the Sun as the Main Cause of the Peak of Approximately 11 Yearly Solar Cycles and Hazards from Solar Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholibeigian, Kazem; Gholibeigian, Hassan

2016-04-01

On March 13, 1989 the entire province of Quebec Blackout by solar storm during solar cycle 22. The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington event, was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm during solar cycle 10. The solar storm of 2012 during solar cycle 24 was of similar magnitude, but it passed Earth's orbit without striking the plane. All of these solar storms occurred in the peak of 11 yearly solar cycles. In this way, the White House in its project which is focusing on hazards from solar system, in a new strategy and action plan to increase protection from damaging solar emissions, should focus on coupling of the matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields)GEFs) of the Sun with Jupiter and its moons together. On the other hand, in solar system, the Jupiter's gravity has largest effect to the Sun's core and its dislocation, because the gravity force between the Jupiter and the Sun is 11.834 times, In addition overlapping of the solar cycles with the Jupiter's orbit period is 11.856 years. These observable factors lead us to the effect of the Jupiter and Sun gravity fields coupling as the main cause of the approximately 11 years duration for solar cycles. Its peak in each cycle is when the Jupiter is in nearest portion to the Sun in its orbit. In this way, the other planets in their coupling with Sun help to the variations and strengthening solar cycles. [Gholibeigian, 7/24/2015http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGU]. In other words, the both matched GEFs are generating by the large scale forced convection system inside the stars and planets [Gholibeigian et. al, AGU Fall Meeting 2015]. These two fields are couple and strengthening each other. The Jupiter with its 67 moons generate the largest coupled and matched GEFs in its core and consequently strongest effect on the Sun's core. Generation and coupling of the Jupiter's GEFs with its moons like Europa, Io and Ganymede make this planet of thousands of times brighter and many times bigger than Earth as the strongest variable GEFs in solar system after the Sun. For example, Ganymede is the largest moon of Jupiter and in the Solar System. Completing an orbit in roughly seven days. It means that it generates 52 GEFs oscillations (loading, unloading) per year in solar cycle while it is rotating around the Jupiter. New observations of the planet's extreme ultraviolet emissions show that bright explosions of Jupiter's aurora by the planet-moon interaction, not by solar activity [Tomoki Kimura, JAEA]. Coupling of Jupiter's GEFs and its moons with the Sun generate very strong GEFs and approximately 11 yearly solar cycles. The peaks of each cycle is when the Jupiter passes from the nearest portion of its orbit to the Sun. which some of its peaks generate gigantic solar storms and hazards to the Earth. The Earth passes from between of Sun and Jupiter eleven times in each solar cycle and may be under shooting of storms from the both side specially during 2-3 years in cycle's peak.

The Complexity of Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2017-08-01

How far in advance can the sunspot number be predicted with any degree of confidence? Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Statistical and timeseries analyses of the sunspot number are often used to predict solar activity. These methods have not been completely successful as the solar dynamo changes over time and one cycle's sunspots are not a faithful predictor of the next cycle's activity. In some ways, using these techniques is similar to asking whether the stock market can be predicted. It has been shown that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) can be more accurately predicted during periods when it obeys certain statistical properties than at other times. The Hurst exponent is one such way to partition the data. Another measure of the complexity of a timeseries is the fractal dimension. We can use these measures of complexity to compare the sunspot number with other solar and geomagnetic indices. Our concentration is on how trends are removed by the various techniques, either internally or externally. Comparisons of the statistical properties of the various solar indices may guide us in understanding how the dynamo manifests in the various indices and the Sun.

SBUV/2 Long-Term Measurements of Solar Spectral Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1997-01-01

The NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectral solar data have been corrected for long-term instrument changes to produce a 5.5 year data record during solar cycle 22 (December 1988 - October 1994). Residual drifts in the data at long wavelengths are +/- 1% or less. At 200-205 nm, where solar variations drive stratospheric photochemistry, these data indicate long-term solar changes of 5-7% from the maximum of Cycle 22 in April 1991 through the end of the NOAA-11 data record. Comparisons of NOAA-11 data with UARS SUSIM and SOLSTICE for the period October 1991 - October 1994, when all 3 instruments were operating simultaneously, show that the observed long-term variations in 200-205 nm irradiance agree to within 2%. This result is consistent with predictions from the Mg-2 proxy index. The SBUV/2 instruments represent a valuable resource for long-term solar UV activity studies because of their overlapping data records. In addition to the NOAA-11 data presented here, the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument began taking data in March 1985 and is still operating, providing a complete record of Cycle 22 behavior from a single instrument. Three additional SBUV/2 instruments are scheduled to be launched between 1997 and 2003, which should permit full coverage of solar cycle 23.

Development of an Organic Rankine-Cycle power module for a small community solar thermal power experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiceniuk, T.

1985-01-01

An organic Rankine-cycle (ORC) power module was developed for use in a multimodule solar power plant to be built and operated in a small community. Many successful components and subsystems, including the reciever, power conversion subsystem, energy transport subsystem, and control subsystem, were tested. Tests were performed on a complete power module using a test bed concentrator in place of the proposed concentrator. All major single-module program functional objectives were met and the multimodule operation presented no apparent problems. The hermetically sealed, self-contained, ORC power conversion unit subsequently successfully completed a 300-hour endurance run with no evidence of wear or operating problems.

Space Station Freedom Solar Array design development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Cindy

The SSF program's Electrical Power System supports a high-power bus with six solar-array wings in LEO; each solar array generates 30.8 kW at 161.1 V dc, with a deployed natural frequency of 0.1 Hz. Design challenges to the solar array, which must survive exposure for 15 years of operating life, include atomic oxygen, the thermal environment, and spacecraft propulsion plume-impingement loads. Tests thus far completed address cell UV-exposure effects, thermal cycling, and solar-cell deflection.

IRIS++ database: Merging of IRIS + Mark-1 + LOWL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salabert, D.; Fossat, E.; Gelly, B.; Tomczyk, S.; Pallé, P.; Jiménez-Reyes, S. J.; Cacciani, A.; Corbard, T.; Ehgamberdiev, S.; Grec, G.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Kholikov, S.; Lazrek, M.; Schmider, F. X.

2002-08-01

The IRIS network has been operated continuously since July 1st 1989. To date, it has acquired more than a complete solar cycle of full-disk helioseismic data which has been used to constrain the structure and rotation of the deep solar interior. However, the duty cycle of the network data has never reached initial expectations. To improve this situation, several cooperations have been developed with teams collecting observations with similar instruments. This paper demonstrates that we are able to merge data from these different instruments in a consistent manner resulting in a very significant improvement in network duty cycle over more than one solar cycle initiating what we call the IRIS++ network. The integrated radial velocities from the IRIS++ database (1989 to 1999) are available in electronic form at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/cgi-bin/qcat?J/A+A/390/717

Solar dynamic power module design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Secunde, Richard R.; Labus, Thomas L.; Lovely, Ronald G.

1989-01-01

Studies have shown that use of solar dynamic (SD) power for the growth eras of the Space Station Freedom program will result in life cycle cost savings when compared to power supplied by photovoltaic sources. In the SD power module, a concentrator collects and focuses solar energy into a heat receiver which has integral thermal energy storage. A power conversion unit (PCU) based on the closed Brayton thermodynamic cycle removes thermal energy from the receiver and converts that energy to electrical energy. Since the closed Brayton cycle is a single phase gas cycle, the conversion hardware (heat exchangers, turbine, compressor, etc.) can be designed for operation in low earth orbit, and tested with confidence in test facilities on earth before launch into space. The concentrator subassemblies will be aligned and the receiver/PCU/radiator combination completely assembled and charged with gas and cooling liquid on earth before launch to, and assembly on orbit.

The solar cycle variation of the rates of CMEs and related activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, David F.

1991-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of the physics of the corona and heliosphere. This paper presents results of a study of occurrence frequencies of CMEs and related activity tracers over more than a complete solar activity cycle. To properly estimate occurrence rates, observed CME rates must be corrected for instrument duty cycles, detection efficiencies away from the skyplane, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. These corrections are evaluated using CME data from 1976-1989 obtained with the Skylab, SMM and SOLWIND coronagraphs and the Helios-2 photometers. The major results are: (1) the occurrence rate of CMEs tends to track the activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the corrected rates from different instruments are reasonably consistent; and (3) over the long term, no one class of solar activity tracer is better correlated with CME rate than any other (with the possible exception of type II bursts).

Long-term Trends in Interplanetary Magnetic Field Strength and Solar Wind Structure during the 20th Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cliver, E. W.; Cane, H. V.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Lockwood et al have recently reported an approximately 40% increase in the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth between 1964 and 1996. We argue that this increase does not constitute a secular trend but is largely the consequence of lower than average fields during solar cycle 20 (1964-1976) in comparison with surrounding cycles. For times after 1976 the average IMF strength has actually decreased slightly. Examination of the cosmic ray intensity, an indirect measure of the IMF strength, over the last five solar cycles (19-23) also indicates that cycle averages of the IMF strength have been relatively constant since approximately 1954. We also consider the origin of the well-documented increase in the geomagnetic alphaalpha index that occurred primarily during the first half of the twentieth century. We surmise that the coronal mass ejection (CME) rate for recent solar cycles was approximately twice as high as that for solar cycles 100 years ago. However, this change in the CME rate and the accompanying increase in 27-day recurrent storm activity reported by others are unable to account completely for the increase in alphaalpha. Rather, the CMEs and recurrent high-speed streams at the beginning of the twentieth century must have been embedded in a background of slow solar wind that was less geoeffective (having, for example, lower IMF strength and/or flow speed) than its modern counterpart.

The investigation of solar activity signals by analyzing of tree ring chronological scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickiforov, M. G.

2017-07-01

The present study examines the ability of detecting short-cycles and global minima of solar activity by analyzing dendrochronologies. Starting with the study of Douglass, which was devoted to the question of climatic cycles and the growth of trees, it is believed that the analysis of dendrochronologies allows to detect the cycle of Wolf-Schwabe. According to his results, the cycle was absent during Maunder's minimum and appeared after its completion. Having checked Douglass's conclusions by using 10 dendrochronologies of yellow pines from Arizona, which cover the time period from 1600 to 1900, we have come to the opposite results. The verification shows that: a) none of the considered dendroscale allows to detect an 11-year cycle; 2) the behaviour of a short peroid-signal does not undergo significant changes before, during or after Maunder's minimum. A similar attempt to detect global minima of solar activity by using five dendrochronologies from different areas has not led to positive results. On the one hand, the signal of global extremum is not always recorded in dendrochronology, on the other hand, the deep depression of annual rings allows to suppose the existence of a global minimum of solar activity, which is actually absent.

Distinct Pattern of Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays above a High Geomagnetic Cutoff Rigidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Clem, John; Evenson, Paul; Pyle, Roger; Mitthumsiri, Warit; Ruffolo, David; Sáiz, Alejandro; Nutaro, Tanin

2018-05-01

Solar modulation refers to Galactic cosmic-ray variations with the ∼11 yr sunspot cycle and ∼22 yr solar magnetic cycle and is relevant to the space radiation environment and effects on Earth’s atmosphere. Its complicated dependence on solar and heliospheric conditions is only roughly understood and has been empirically modeled in terms of a single modulation parameter. Most analyses of solar modulation use neutron monitor (NM) data from locations with relatively low geomagnetic cutoff rigidity, i.e., the threshold for cosmic rays to penetrate Earth’s magnetic field. The Princess Sirindhorn Neutron Monitor at Doi Inthanon, Thailand, has the world’s highest cutoff rigidity (≈17 GV) where observations span a complete solar modulation cycle (since late 2007). The pattern of solar modulation at Doi Inthanon during 2011–2014 was qualitatively very different from that at a low geomagnetic cutoff and is not well described by the same modulation parameter. At other times, NM count rates from Doi Inthanon and McMurdo, Antarctica (cutoff ∼1 GV), were linearly correlated and confirm the observation from latitude surveys in the previous solar cycle that the slope of the correlation changes with solar magnetic polarity. Low solar magnetic tilt angles (<40° at negative polarity) were well correlated with variations at both NM stations, as predicted by drift models. At a higher tilt angle, the Doi Inthanon count rate is well correlated with the interplanetary magnetic field, which is consistent with an increase in diffusion at high rigidity short-circuiting the effects of drifts and the heliospheric current sheet.

Solar thermal polymerase chain reaction for smartphone-assisted molecular diagnostics.

PubMed

Jiang, Li; Mancuso, Matthew; Lu, Zhengda; Akar, Gunkut; Cesarman, Ethel; Erickson, David

2014-02-20

Nucleic acid-based diagnostic techniques such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are used extensively in medical diagnostics due to their high sensitivity, specificity and quantification capability. In settings with limited infrastructure and unreliable electricity, however, access to such devices is often limited due to the highly specialized and energy-intensive nature of the thermal cycling process required for nucleic acid amplification. Here we integrate solar heating with microfluidics to eliminate thermal cycling power requirements as well as create a simple device infrastructure for PCR. Tests are completed in less than 30 min, and power consumption is reduced to 80 mW, enabling a standard 5.5 Wh iPhone battery to provide 70 h of power to this system. Additionally, we demonstrate a complete sample-to-answer diagnostic strategy by analyzing human skin biopsies infected with Kaposi's Sarcoma herpesvirus (KSHV/HHV-8) through the combination of solar thermal PCR, HotSHOT DNA extraction and smartphone-based fluorescence detection. We believe that exploiting the ubiquity of solar thermal energy as demonstrated here could facilitate broad availability of nucleic acid-based diagnostics in resource-limited areas.

Solar thermal polymerase chain reaction for smartphone-assisted molecular diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Li; Mancuso, Matthew; Lu, Zhengda; Akar, Gunkut; Cesarman, Ethel; Erickson, David

2014-02-01

Nucleic acid-based diagnostic techniques such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are used extensively in medical diagnostics due to their high sensitivity, specificity and quantification capability. In settings with limited infrastructure and unreliable electricity, however, access to such devices is often limited due to the highly specialized and energy-intensive nature of the thermal cycling process required for nucleic acid amplification. Here we integrate solar heating with microfluidics to eliminate thermal cycling power requirements as well as create a simple device infrastructure for PCR. Tests are completed in less than 30 min, and power consumption is reduced to 80 mW, enabling a standard 5.5 Wh iPhone battery to provide 70 h of power to this system. Additionally, we demonstrate a complete sample-to-answer diagnostic strategy by analyzing human skin biopsies infected with Kaposi's Sarcoma herpesvirus (KSHV/HHV-8) through the combination of solar thermal PCR, HotSHOT DNA extraction and smartphone-based fluorescence detection. We believe that exploiting the ubiquity of solar thermal energy as demonstrated here could facilitate broad availability of nucleic acid-based diagnostics in resource-limited areas.

Pilot solar power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, D.

A fully functionally efficient solar-thermal power plant (10 kW electric) was built. The operating principle of thermomechanical conversion of solar energy into mechanical or electrical energy is presented. The equipment is completely automatic. Flat plate collectors absorb solar energy and convert it into heat which is transmitted by water to a heat exchanger. A closed cycle machine uses the heat to boil a working fluid (C2C12F4). A screw, powered by gas expansion in the working fluid, converts mechanical energy into electrical energy.

Salient Features of the New Sunspot Number Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahluwalia, H. S.; Ygbuhay, R. C.

2016-12-01

Recently Clette et al. (Space Sci. Rev. 186, 35, 2014) completed the first revision of the international sunspot number SSN(V2) since its creation by Wolf in 1849 SSN(V1) starting in 1700 and ending in May 2015. The yearly values of SSN(V2) are larger than those of SSN(V1) but the secular trend in their timelines both exhibit a gradual descent after Cycle 21 minimum resulting in greatly reduced activity for Cycle 24. It has two peaks; one in 2012 due to activity in the north hemisphere (NH) and the other in 2014 due to excess activity in the south hemisphere (SH). The N-S excess of hemispheric SSNs is examined for 1950 - 2014, in relation to the time variations of the solar polar field for 1976 - 2015, covering five complete solar cycles (19 - 23) and parts of the bordering two (18, 24). We find that SH tends to become progressively more active in the declining phase of the cycles reaching an extreme value that gave rise to a second higher peak in October 2014 in the smoothed SSNs accompanied by a strong solar polar field in SH. There may be a Gleissberg cyclicity in the asymmetric solar dynamo operation. The continuing descent of the secular trend in SSNs implies that we may be near a Dalton-level grand minimum. The low activity spell may last well past 2060, accompanied by a stable but reduced level of the space weather/climate. Fourier spectrum of the time domain of SSNs shows no evidence of the 208 year/cycle (ypc) (DeVries/Suess cycle) seen in the cosmogenic radionuclide ({}^{10}Be) concentration in the polar ice cores and {}^{14}C record in trees indicating that 208 ypc peak may be of non-solar origin. It may arise from the climate process(es) that change(s) the way radionuclides are deposited on polar ice. It should be noted that we only have {˜} 400 years of SSN data, so it is possible that DeVries/Suess cycle is really driven by the Sun but for now we do not have any evidence of that; there is no known physical process linking 208 ypc to solar dynamo operation.

Evaluation of Rankine cycle air conditioning system hardware by computer simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Healey, H. M.; Clark, D.

1978-01-01

A computer program for simulating the performance of a variety of solar powered Rankine cycle air conditioning system components (RCACS) has been developed. The computer program models actual equipment by developing performance maps from manufacturers data and is capable of simulating off-design operation of the RCACS components. The program designed to be a subroutine of the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Solar Energy System Analysis Computer Program 'SOLRAD', is a complete package suitable for use by an occasional computer user in developing performance maps of heating, ventilation and air conditioning components.

Daytime Solar Heating of Photovoltaic Arrays in Low Density Plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galofaro, J.; Vayner, B.; Ferguson, D.

2003-01-01

The purpose of the current work is to determine the out-gassing rate of H2O molecules for a solar array placed under daytime solar heating (full sunlight) conditions typically encountered in a Low Earth Orbital (LEO) environment. Arc rates are established for individual arrays held at 14 C and are used as a baseline for future comparisons. Radiated thermal solar flux incident to the array is simulated by mounting a stainless steel panel equipped with resistive heating elements several centimeters behind the array. A thermal plot of the heater plate temperature and the array temperature as a function of heating time is then obtained. A mass spectrometer is used to record the levels of partial pressure of water vapor in the test chamber after each of the 5 heating/cooling cycles. Each of the heating cycles was set to time duration of 40 minutes to simulate the daytime solar heat flux to the array over a single orbit. Finally the array is cooled back to ambient temperature after 5 complete cycles and the arc rates of the solar arrays is retested. A comparison of the various data is presented with rather some unexpected results.

Difference between even and odd 11-year cycles in cosmic ray intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otaola, J. A.; Perez-Enriquez, R.; Valdes-Galicia, J. F.

1985-01-01

Cosmic ray data for the period 1946-1984 are used to determine the run of the cosmic ray intensity over three complete solar cycles. The analysis shows a tendency towards a regular alternation of cosmic ray intensity cycles with double and single maxima. Whereas a saddle-like shape is characteristic of even cycles, odd cycles are characterized by a peak-like shape. The importance of this behavior is discussed in terms of different processes influencing cosmic ray transport in the heliosphere.

Ionospheric winter anomaly and annual anomaly observed from Formosat-3/COSMIC Radio Occultation observations during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sai Gowtam, V.; Tulasi Ram, S.

2017-10-01

Ionospheric winter and annual anomalies have been investigated during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 using high-resolution global 3D - data of the FORMOSAT - 3/COSMIC (Formosa satellite - 3/Constellation Observing System for Meterology, Ionosphere and Climate) radio occultation observations. Our detailed analysis shows that the occurrence of winter anomaly at low-latitudes is confined only to the early morning to afternoon hours, whereas, the winter anomaly at mid-latitudes is almost absent at all local times during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. Further, in the topside ionosphere (altitudes of 400 km and above), the winter anomaly is completely absent at all local times. In contrast, the ionospheric annual anomaly is consistently observed at all local times and altitudes during this ascending phase of solar cycle 24. The annual anomaly exhibits strong enhancements over southern EIA crest latitudes during day time and around Weddle Sea Anomaly (WSA) region during night times. The global mean annual asymmetry index is also computed to understand the altitudinal variation. The global mean AI maximizes around 300-500 km altitudes during the low solar active periods (2008-10), whereas it extends up to 600 km during moderate to high (2011) solar activity period. These findings from our study provide new insights to the current understanding of the annual anomaly.

Moon Connection with MEGA and Giant Earthquakes in Subduction Zones during One Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagen, M. T.; Azevedo, A. T.

2016-12-01

We investigated in this paper the possible influences of the moon on earthquakes during one Solar cycle. The Earth - Moon gravitational force produces a variation in the perigee force that may trigger seismological events. The oscillation force creates a wave that is generated by the moon rotation around the earth, which takes a month. The wave complete a cycle after 13- 14 months in average and the period is roughly 5400 hours as calculated. The major moon phases which are New and Full Moon is when the perigee force is stronger. The Solar Wind charges the Moon during the New phases. The plasmasphere charges the satellite during the Full Moon. Both create the Spring Tides what affects mostly the subduction zones connected with the Mega and Giant events in Pacific areas. Moon - Earth connections are resilient in locations with convergent tectonic plates. Inserted:

Solar-Iss a New Solar Reference Spectrum Covering the Far UV to the Infrared (165 to 3088 Nm) Based on Reanalyzed Solar/solspec Cycle 24 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damé, L.; Meftah, M.; Irbah, A.; Hauchecorne, A.; Bekki, S.; Bolsée, D.; Pereira, N.; Sluse, D.; Cessateur, G.

2017-12-01

Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017, the SOLSPEC (SOLar SPECtrometer) spectro-radiometer of the SOLAR facility on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements, unique by their large spectral coverage and long time range, are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry), noticeably through the "top-down" mechanism amplifying ultraviolet (UV) solar forcing effects on the climate (UV affects stratospheric dynamics and temperatures, altering interplanetary waves and weather patterns both poleward and downward to the lower stratosphere and troposphere regions). SOLAR/SOLSPEC, with almost 9 years of observations covering the essential of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum, allowed to establish new reference solar spectra from UV to IR (165 to 3088 nm) at minimum (beginning of mission) and maximum of activity. The complete reanalysis was possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and advanced procedures to account for thermal, aging and pointing corrections. The high quality and sensitivity of SOLSPEC data allow to follow temporal variability in UV but also in visible along the cycle. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and results, absolute reference spectra and variability, are compared with other measurements (WHI, ATLAS-3, SCIAMACHY, SORCE/SOLSTICE, SORCE/SIM) and models (SATIRE-S, NRLSSI, NESSY)

Rapid thermal cycling of solar array blanket coupons for Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheiman, David A.; Smith, Bryan K.

1991-01-01

The NASA Lewis Research Center has been conducting rapid thermal cycling on blanket coupons for Space Station Freedom. This testing includes two designs (8 coupons total) of the solar array. Four coupons were fabricated as part of the Photovoltaic Array Environmental Protection Program (PAEP), NAS3-25079, at Lockheed Missiles and Space Company. These coupons began cycling in early 1989 and have completed 172,000 thermal cycles. Four other coupons were fabricated a year later and included several design changes; cycling of these began in early 1990 and has reached 90,000 cycles. The objective of this testing is to demonstrate the durability or operational lifetime (15 yrs.) of the welded interconnects within a low earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycling environment. The blanket coupons, design changes, test description, status to date including performance and observed anomalies, and any insights related to the testing of these coupons are described. The description of a third design is included.

Design of a solar array simulator for the NASA EOS testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Steve J.; Sable, Dan M.; Lee, Fred C.; Cho, Bo H.

1992-01-01

The present spacecraft solar array simulator addresses both dc and ac characteristics as well as changes in illumination and temperature and performance degradation over the course of array service life. The computerized control system used allows simulation of a complete orbit cycle, in addition to automated diagnostics. The simulator is currently interfaced with the NASA EOS testbed.

Solar thermal polymerase chain reaction for smartphone-assisted molecular diagnostics

PubMed Central

Jiang, Li; Mancuso, Matthew; Lu, Zhengda; Akar, Gunkut; Cesarman, Ethel; Erickson, David

2014-01-01

Nucleic acid-based diagnostic techniques such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are used extensively in medical diagnostics due to their high sensitivity, specificity and quantification capability. In settings with limited infrastructure and unreliable electricity, however, access to such devices is often limited due to the highly specialized and energy-intensive nature of the thermal cycling process required for nucleic acid amplification. Here we integrate solar heating with microfluidics to eliminate thermal cycling power requirements as well as create a simple device infrastructure for PCR. Tests are completed in less than 30 min, and power consumption is reduced to 80 mW, enabling a standard 5.5 Wh iPhone battery to provide 70 h of power to this system. Additionally, we demonstrate a complete sample-to-answer diagnostic strategy by analyzing human skin biopsies infected with Kaposi's Sarcoma herpesvirus (KSHV/HHV-8) through the combination of solar thermal PCR, HotSHOT DNA extraction and smartphone-based fluorescence detection. We believe that exploiting the ubiquity of solar thermal energy as demonstrated here could facilitate broad availability of nucleic acid-based diagnostics in resource-limited areas. PMID:24553130

The solar cycle; Proceedings of the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak 12th Summer Workshop, Sunspot, NM, Oct. 15-18, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Karen L. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Attention is given to a flux-transport model, the effect of fractal distribution on the evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, active nests on the sun, magnetic flux transport in solar active regions, recent advances in stellar cycle research, magnetic intermittency on the sun, a search for existence of large-scale motions on the sun, and new solar cycle data from the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph. Attention is also given to the solar cycle variation of coronal temperature during cycle 22, the distribution of the north-south asymmetry for the various activity cycles, solar luminosity variation, a two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle, the origin of the solar cycle, nonlinear feedbacks in the solar dynamo, and long-term dynamics of the solar cycle.

Buffer thermal energy storage for a solar Brayton engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strumpf, H. J.; Barr, K. P.

1981-01-01

A study has been completed on the application of latent-heat buffer thermal energy storage to a point-focusing solar receiver equipped with an air Brayton engine. To aid in the study, a computer program was written for complete transient/stead-state Brayton cycle performance. The results indicated that thermal storage can afford a significant decrease in the number of engine shutdowns as compared to operating without thermal storage. However, the number of shutdowns does not continuously decrease as the storage material weight increases. In fact, there appears to be an optimum weight for minimizing the number of shutdowns.

Solar power satellite system definition study. Volume 4: Silicon solar cell annealing test, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, F.

1979-01-01

Laser annealing tests were conducted on ten 50 micron cells. Two were control cells that were not irradiated. These showed no loss in output due to exposure to the laser. Two cells were broken in handling. Six cells were successfully tested. All cells tested without breakage showed some recovery. One cell was subjected to two cycles and showed recovery on both cycles. Cells that were moderately degraded appeared to recover more completely than those more severly degraded. Exposure times ranged from two to ten seconds at 500 degrees centigrade. There was some indication that longer exposure was beneficial.

Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for Space Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Jerry D.; Hehemann, David G.; Duraj, Stan A.

2003-01-01

During the course of this grant, dye-sensitized solar cells were prepared and characterized. The solar cells were prepared using materials (dyes, electrolytes, transparent conductive oxide coated glass, nanocrystalline TiO2) entirely prepared in-house, as well as prepared using materials available commercially. Complete cells were characterized under simulated AM0 illumination. The best cell prepared at NASA had an AM0 efficiency of 1.22% for a 1.1 sq cm cell. Short circuit current (Isc), open circuit voltage (Voc) and fill factor (FF) for the cell were 6.95 mA, 618 mV and 42.8%, respectively. For comparison purposes, two commercially prepared dye-sensitized solar cells were obtained from Solaronix SA, Aubonne, Switzerland. The Solaronix cells were also characterized under simulated AM0 illumination. The best cell from Solaronix had an active area of 3.71 sq cm and measured an AM0 efficiency of 3.16%. with Isc, Voc and FF of 45.80 mA, 669.6 mV and 52.3%, respectively. Both cells from Solaronix were rapid thermal cycled between -80 C and 80 C. Thermal cycling led to a 4.6% loss of efficiency in one of the cells and led to nearly a complete failure in the second cell.

Variations in Solar Parameters and Cosmic Rays with Solar Magnetic Polarity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oh, S.; Yi, Y., E-mail: suyeonoh@jnu.ac.kr

The sunspot number varies with the 11-year Schwabe cycle, and the solar magnetic polarity reverses every 11 years approximately at the solar maximum. Because of polarity reversal, the difference between odd and even solar cycles is seen in solar activity. In this study, we create the mean solar cycle expressed by phase using the monthly sunspot number for all solar cycles 1–23. We also generate the mean solar cycle for sunspot area, solar radio flux, and cosmic ray flux within the allowance of observational range. The mean solar cycle has one large peak at solar maximum for odd solar cyclesmore » and two small peaks for most even solar cycles. The odd and even solar cycles have the statistical difference in value and shape at a confidence level of at least 98%. For solar cycles 19–23, the second peak in the even solar cycle is larger than the first peak. This result is consistent with the frequent solar events during the declining phase after the solar maximum. The difference between odd and even solar cycles can be explained by a combined model of polarity reversal and solar rotation. In the positive/negative polarity, the polar magnetic field introduces angular momentum in the same/opposite direction as/to the solar rotation. Thus the addition/subtraction of angular momentum can increase/decrease the motion of plasma to support the formation of sunspots. Since the polarity reverses at the solar maximum, the opposite phenomenon occurs in the declining phase.« less

Behavior of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Revealed by Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Maekelae, P.; Michalek, G.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D. H.

2012-01-01

Using magnetic and microwave butterfly diagrams, we compare the behavior of solar polar regions to show that (1) the polar magnetic field and the microwave brightness temperature during solar minimum substantially diminished during the cycle 23/24 minimum compared to the 22/23 minimum. (2) The polar microwave brightness temperature (Tb) seems to be a good proxy for the underlying magnetic field strength (B). The analysis indicates a relationship, B = 0.0067Tb - 70, where B is in G and Tb in K. (3) Both the brightness temperature and the magnetic field strength show north-south asymmetry most of the time except for a short period during the maximum phase. (4) The rush-to-the-pole phenomenon observed in the prominence eruption (PE) activity seems to be complete in the northern hemisphere as of 2012 March. (5) The decline of the microwave brightness temperature in the north polar region to the quiet-Sun levels and the sustained PE activity poleward of 60degN suggest that solar maximum conditions have arrived at the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere continues to exhibit conditions corresponding to the rise phase of solar cycle 24. Key words: Sun: chromosphere Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) Sun: filaments, prominences Sun: photosphere Sun: radio radiation Sun: surface magnetism

THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 23: AS DEEP AS IT COULD BE?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Longcope, Dana W.; Senkpeil, Ryan R.

2015-05-01

In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our approach assumes that the statistical properties of sunspots are completely determined by the strength of the underlying large-scale field and have no additional time dependencies. We use the amplitude of the cycle at any given moment (something we refer to as activity level) as a proxy for the strength of this deep-seated magnetic field. We find that themore » sunspot size distribution is composed of two populations: one population of groups and active regions and a second population of pores and ephemeral regions. When fits are performed at periods of different activity level, only the statistical properties of the former population, the active regions, are found to vary. Finally, we study the relative contribution of each component (small-scale versus large-scale) to solar magnetism. We find that when hemispheres are treated separately, almost every one of the past 12 solar minima reaches a point where the main contribution to magnetism comes from the small-scale component. However, due to asymmetries in cycle phase, this state is very rarely reached by both hemispheres at the same time. From this we infer that even though each hemisphere did reach the magnetic baseline, from a heliospheric point of view the minimum of cycle 23 was not as deep as it could have been.« less

Unusual Polar Conditions in Solar Cycle 24 and Their Implications for Cycle 25

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat; Yashiro, Seiji; Akiyama, Sachiko

2016-01-01

We report on the prolonged solar-maximum conditions until late 2015 at the north-polar region of the Sun indicated by the occurrence of high-latitude prominence eruptions (PEs) and microwave brightness temperature close to the quiet-Sun level. These two aspects of solar activity indicate that the polarity reversal was completed by mid-2014 in the south and late 2015 in the north. The microwave brightness in the south-polar region has increased to a level exceeding the level of the Cycle 23/24 minimum, but just started to increase in the north. The northsouth asymmetry in the polarity reversal has switched from that in Cycle 23. These observations lead us to the hypothesis that the onset of Cycle 25 in the northern hemisphere is likely to be delayed with respect to that in the southern hemisphere. We find that the unusual condition in the north is a direct consequence of the arrival of poleward surges of opposite polarity from the active region belt. We also find that multiple rush-to-the-pole episodes were indicated by the PE locations that lined up at the boundary between opposite-polarity surges. The high-latitude PEs occurred in the boundary between the incumbent polar flux and the insurgent flux of opposite polarity.

Parabolic dish collectors - A solar option

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truscello, V. C.

1981-05-01

A description is given of several parabolic-dish high temperature solar thermal systems currently undergoing performance trials. A single parabolic dish has the potential for generating 20 to 30 kW of electricity with fluid temperatures from 300 to 1650 C. Each dish is a complete power-producing unit, and may function either independently or as part of a group of linked modules. The two dish designs under consideration are of 11 and 12 meter diameters, yielding receiver operating temperatures of 925 and 815 C, respectively. The receiver designs described include (1) an organic working fluid (toluene) Rankine cycle engine; (2) a Brayton open cycle unit incorporating a hybrid combustion chamber and nozzle and a shaft-coupled permanent magnet alternator; and (3) a modified Stirling cycle device originally designed for automotive use. Also considered are thermal buffer energy storage and thermochemical transport and storage.

Algoritmi per il calcolo dell'epatta della Luna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigismondi, Costantino

2016-05-01

On the sides of the chair of St. Hyppolitus in the Vatican Libray there is a series of 112 epacts, used for calculating the date of Christian Easter valid for 112 years from 222 AD. The algorithm of octaëteris or 8 civil (julian) years=99 lunar months and a correction of three days each 16 years or one day each 5, 5, 6 years are discussed. Four complete solar cycles (28 years), after which the sequence of the day of the week are repeating, are included in 112 years as well as 7 groups of 16 years; 112 is the minimum common multiple between the double octaëteris (16 years) and the solar cycle (28).

Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2013-12-01

Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out.

Geophysical, archaeological and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.; Hsu, K.J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called 'little ice ages,' similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.

A new simple dynamo model for solar activity cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokoi, Nobumitsu; Schmitt, Dieter

2015-04-01

The solar magnetic activity cycle has been investigated in an elaborated manner with several types of dynamo models [1]. In most of the current mean-field approaches, the inhomogeneity of the large-scale flow is treated as an essential ingredient in the mean magnetic field equation whereas it is completely neglected in the turbulence equation. In this work, a new simple model for the solar activity cycle is proposed. The present model differs from the previous ones mainly in two points. First, in addition to the helicity coefficient α, we consider a term related to the cross helicity, which represents the effect of the inhomogeneous mean flow, in the turbulent electromotive force [2, 3]. Second, this transport coefficient (γ) is not treated as an adjustable parameter, but the evolution equation for γ is simultaneously solved. The basic scenario for the solar activity cycle in this approach is as follows: The toroidal field is induced by the toroidal rotation in mediation by the turbulent cross helicity. Then due to the α or helicity effect, the poloidal field is generated from the toroidal field. The poloidal field induced by the α effect produces a turbulent cross helicity whose sign is opposite to the original one (negative cross-helicity production). The cross helicity with this opposite sign induces a reversed toroidal field. Results of the eigenvalue analysis of the model equations are shown, which confirm the above scenario. References [1] Charbonneau, Living Rev. Solar Phys. 7, 3 (2010). [2] Yoshizawa, A. Phys. Fluids B 2, 1589 (1990). [3] Yokoi, N. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 107, 114 (2013).

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William D.

2016-01-01

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

A Coupled 2 × 2D Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model. II. Reference Dynamo Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul

2017-01-01

In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid 2 × 2D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). This hybrid model is constructed by allowing the surface flux transport (SFT) simulation described in Lemerle et al. to provide the poloidal source term to an axisymmetric FTD simulation defined in a meridional plane, which in turn generates the BMRs required by the SFT. A key aspect of this coupling is the definition of an emergence function describing the probability of BMR emergence as a function of the spatial distribution of the internal axisymmetric magnetic field. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate this function, together with other model parameters, against observed cycle 21 emergence data. We present a reference dynamo solution reproducing many solar cycle characteristics, including good hemispheric coupling, phase relationship between the surface dipole and the BMR-generating internal field, and correlation between dipole strength at cycle maximum and peak amplitude of the next cycle. The saturation of the cycle amplitude takes place through the quenching of the BMR tilt as a function of the internal field. The observed statistical scatter about the mean BMR tilt, built into the model, acts as a source of stochasticity which dominates amplitude fluctuations. The model thus can produce Dalton-like epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitude lasting a few cycles and can even shut off entirely following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events.

POLAR NETWORK INDEX AS A MAGNETIC PROXY FOR THE SOLAR CYCLE STUDIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Priyal, Muthu; Banerjee, Dipankar; Ravindra, B.

2014-09-20

The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 yr sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which operates in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have direct systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about the mid-1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca-K spectroheliograms taken at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904-2007 have now been digitized with 4k × 4k CCD and have higher resolution (∼0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical datamore » sets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (polar network index, hereafter PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period 1976-1990. This calibration allows us to estimate the polar fields for the earlier period up to 1904. The dynamo calculations performed with this proxy as input data reproduce reasonably well the Sun's magnetic behavior for the past century.« less

Synoptic maps of heliospheric Thomson scattering brightness from 1974-1985 as observed by the Helios photometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hick, P.; Jackson, B. V.; Schwenn, R.

1992-01-01

We display the electron Thomson scattering intensity of the inner heliosphere as observed by the zodiacal light photometers on board the Helios spacecraft in the form of synoptic maps. The technique extrapolates the brightness information from each photometer sector near the Sun and constructs a latitude/longitude map at a given solar height. These data are unique in that they give a determination of heliospheric structures out of the ecliptic above the primary region of solar wind acceleration. The spatial extent of bright, co-rotating heliospheric structures is readily observed in the data north and south of the ecliptic plane where the Helios photometer coverage is most complete. Because the technique has been used on the complete Helios data set from 1974 to 1985, we observe the change in our synoptic maps with solar cycle. Bright structures are concentrated near the heliospheric equator at solar minimum, while at solar maximum bright structures are found at far higher heliographic latitudes. A comparison of these maps with other forms of synoptic data are shown for two available intervals.

An Integrated Device View on Photo-Electrochemical Solar-Hydrogen Generation.

PubMed

Modestino, Miguel A; Haussener, Sophia

2015-01-01

Devices that directly capture and store solar energy have the potential to significantly increase the share of energy from intermittent renewable sources. Photo-electrochemical solar-hydrogen generators could become an important contributor, as these devices can convert solar energy into fuels that can be used throughout all sectors of energy. Rather than focusing on scientific achievement on the component level, this article reviews aspects of overall component integration in photo-electrochemical water-splitting devices that ultimately can lead to deployable devices. Throughout the article, three generalized categories of devices are considered with different levels of integration and spanning the range of complete integration by one-material photo-electrochemical approaches to complete decoupling by photovoltaics and electrolyzer devices. By using this generalized framework, we describe the physical aspects, device requirements, and practical implications involved with developing practical photo-electrochemical water-splitting devices. Aspects reviewed include macroscopic coupled multiphysics device models, physical device demonstrations, and economic and life cycle assessments, providing the grounds to draw conclusions on the overall technological outlook.

On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

2016-01-01

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong

2013-06-01

The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.

The Solar Cycle.

PubMed

Hathaway, David H

The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24. Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/lrsp-2015-4.

Radiation and Internal Charging Environments for Thin Dielectrics in Interplanetary Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Linda Neergaard; Altstatt, Richard L.

2004-01-01

Spacecraft designs using solar sails for propulsion or thin membranes to shade instruments from the sun to achieve cryogenic operating temperatures are being considered for a number of missions in the next decades. A common feature of these designs are thin dielectric materials that will be exposed to the solar wind, solar energetic particle events, and the distant magnetotail plasma environments encountered by spacecraft in orbit about the Earth-Sun L2 point. This paper will discuss the relevant radiation and internal charging environments developed to support spacecraft design for both total dose radiation effects as well as dose rate dependent phenomenon, such as internal charging in the solar wind and distant magnetotail environments. We will describe the development of radiation and internal charging environment models based on nearly a complete solar cycle of Ulysses solar wind plasma measurements over a complete range of heliocentric latitudes and the early years of the Geotail mission where distant magnetotail plasma environments were sampled beyond X(sub GSE) = -100 Re to nearly L2 (X(sub GSE) -236 Re). Example applications of the environment models are shown to demonstrate the radiation and internal charging environments of thin materials exposed to the interplanetary space plasma environments.

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1999-01-01

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Solar Airplanes and Regenerative Fuel Cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bents, David J.

2007-01-01

A solar electric aircraft with the potential to "fly forever" has captured NASA's interest, and the concept for such an aircraft was pursued under Aeronautics Environmental Research Aircraft and Sensor Technology (ERAST) project. Feasibility of this aircraft happens to depend on the successful development of solar power technologies critical to NASA's Exploration Initiatives; hence, there was widespread interest throughout NASA to bring these technologies to a flight demonstration. The most critical is an energy storage system to sustain mission power during night periods. For the solar airplane, whose flight capability is already limited by the diffuse nature of solar flux and subject to latitude and time of year constraints, the feasibility of long endurance flight depends on a storage density figure of merit better than 400-600 watt-hr per kilogram. This figure of merit is beyond the capability of present day storage technologies (other than nuclear) but may be achievable in the hydrogen-oxygen regenerative fuel cell (RFC). This potential has led NASA to undertake the practical development of a hydrogen-oxygen regenerative fuel cell, initially as solar energy storage for a high altitude UAV science platform but eventually to serve as the primary power source for NASAs lunar base and other planet surface installations. Potentially the highest storage capacity and lowest weight of any non-nuclear device, a flight-weight RFC aboard a solar-electric aircraft that is flown continuously through several successive day-night cycles will provide the most convincing demonstration that this technology's widespread potential has been realized. In 1998 NASA began development of a closed cycle hydrogen oxygen PEM RFC under the Aeronautics Environmental Research Aircraft and Sensor Technology (ERAST) project and continued its development, originally for a solar electric airplane flight, through FY2005 under the Low Emissions Alternative Power (LEAP) project. Construction of the closed loop system began in 2002 at the NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio. System checkout was completed, and testing began, in July of 2003. The initial test sequences were done with only a fuel cell or electrolyzer in the test rig. Those tests were used to verify the test apparatus, procedures, and software. The first complete cycles of the fully closed loop, regenerative fuel cell system were successfully completed in the following September. Following some hardware upgrades to increase reactant recirculation flow, the test rig was operated at full power in December 2003 and again in January 2004. In March 2004 a newer generation of fuel cell and electrolyzer stacks was substituted for the original hardware and these stacks were successfully tested at full power under cyclic operation in June of 2004.

Using the Solar Polar Magnetic Field for Longterm Predictions of Solar Activity, Solar Cycles 21-25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K. H.

2017-12-01

We briefly review the dynamo and geomagnetic precursor methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the amplification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, to the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. We will show how effective the SODA Index has been in predicting Solar Cycles 23 and 24, and present a unified picture of earlier estimates of the polar magnetic configuration in Solar Cycle 21 and 22. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 125 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 70 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. Since the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.

2 kWe Solar Dynamic Ground Test Demonstration Project. Volume 1; Executive Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Dennis

1997-01-01

The Solar Dynamic Ground Test Demonstration (SDGTD) successfully demonstrated a solar-powered closed Brayton cycle system in a relevant space thermal environment. In addition to meeting technical requirements the project was completed 4 months ahead of schedule and under budget. The following conclusions can be supported: 1. The component technology for solar dynamic closed Brayton cycle technology has clearly been demonstrated. 2. The thermal, optical, control, and electrical integration aspects of systems integration have also been successfully demonstrated. Physical integration aspects were not attempted as these tend to be driven primarily by mission-specific requirements. 3. System efficiency of greater than 15 percent (all losses fully accounted for) was demonstrated using equipment and designs which were not optimized. Some preexisting hardware was used to minimize cost and schedule. 4. Power generation of 2 kWe. 5. A NASA/industry team was developed that successfully worked together to accomplish project goals. The material presented in this report will show that the technology necessary to design and fabricate solar dynamic electrical power systems for space has been successfully developed and demonstrated. The data will further show that achieved results compare well with pretest predictions. The next step in the development of solar dynamic space power will be a flight test.

A Mechanism For Solar Forcing of Climate: Did the Maunder Minimum Cause the Little Ice Age?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2004-01-01

The mechanism we wish to demonstrate exploits chemical, radiative, and dynamical sensitivities in the stratosphere to affect the climate of the troposphere. The sun, while its variability in total radiative output over the course of the solar cycle is on the order of 0.1%, exhibits variability in the UV output on the order of 5%. We expect to show that a substantially decreased solar UV output lessened the heating of the Earth's stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum, through decreased radiative absorption by ozone and oxygen. These changes in stratospheric heating would lead to major changes in the stratospheric zonal wind pattern which would in turn affect the propagation characteristics of planetary-scale waves launched in the winter hemisphere. Until recently, there was no quantitative data to relate the changes in the stratosphere to those at the surface. There is now empirical evidence from the NCEP Reanalysis data that a definitive effect of the solar cycle on climate in the troposphere exists. Our recent work is summarized as follows (see complete list of publications in later part of this report).

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W.

1979-01-01

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

The South Atlantic Anomaly throughout the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domingos, João; Jault, Dominique; Pais, Maria Alexandra; Mandea, Mioara

2017-09-01

The Sun-Earth's interaction is characterized by a highly dynamic electromagnetic environment, in which the magnetic field produced in the Earth's core plays an important role. One of the striking characteristics of the present geomagnetic field is denoted the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) where the total field intensity is unusually low and the flux of charged particles, trapped in the inner Van Allen radiation belts, is maximum. Here, we use, on one hand, a recent geomagnetic field model, CHAOS-6, and on the other hand, data provided by different platforms (satellites orbiting the Earth - POES NOAA for 1998-2014 and CALIPSO for 2006-2014). Evolution of the SAA particle flux can be seen as the result of two main effects, the secular variation of the Earth's core magnetic field and the modulation of the density of the inner radiation belts during the solar cycle, as a function of the L value that characterises the drift shell, where charged particles are trapped. To study the evolution of the particle flux anomaly, we rely on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of either POES particle flux or CALIOP dark noise. Analysed data are distributed on a geographical grid at satellite altitude, based on a L-shell reference frame constructed from the moving eccentric dipole. Changes in the main magnetic field are responsible for the observed westward drift. Three PCA modes account for the time evolution related to solar effects. Both the first and second modes have a good correlation with the thermospheric density, which varies in response to the solar cycle. The first mode represents the total intensity variation of the particle flux in the SAA, and the second the movement of the anomaly between different L-shells. The proposed analysis allows us to well recover the westward drift rate, as well as the latitudinal and longitudinal solar cycle oscillations, although the analysed data do not cover a complete (Hale) magnetic solar cycle (around 22 yr). Moreover, the developments made here would enable us to forecast the impact of the South Atlantic Anomaly on space weather. A model of the evolution of the eccentric dipole field (magnitude, offset and tilt) would suffice, together with a model for the solar cycle evolution.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ronnie J.

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

PubMed Central

Perry, Charles A.; Hsu, Kenneth J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2N (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called “little ice ages,” similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280–1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum. PMID:11050181

Reconstructing the 11-year solar cycle length from cosmogenic radionuclides for the last 600 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Emma; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund

2017-04-01

The cyclic behavior of the solar magnetic field has been known for centuries and the 11-year solar cycle is one of the most important features directly visible on the solar disc. Using sunspot records it is evident that the length of this cycle is variable. A hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the average solar activity level and the solar cycle length has been put forward (e.g. Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991), indicating longer solar cycles during periods of low solar activity and vice versa. So far, studies of the behavior of the 11-year solar cycle have largely been limited for the last 4 centuries where observational sunspot data are available. However, cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings allow an assessment of the strength of the open solar magnetic field due to its shielding influence on galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Similarly, very strong solar storms can leave their imprint in cosmogenic radionuclide records via solar proton-induced direct production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the Earth atmosphere. Here, we test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between solar cycle length and the longer-term solar activity level by using cosmogenic radionuclide records as a proxy for solar activity. Our results for the last six centuries suggest significant solar cycle length variations that could exceed the range directly inferred from sunspot records. We discuss the occurrence of SPEs within the 11-year solar cycle from a radionuclide perspective, specifically the largest one known yet, at AD 774-5 (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). References: Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. Length of the solar-cycle - An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700, doi:10.1126/science.254.5032.698 (1991). Mekhaldi, F., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Aldahan, A., Beer, J., McConnell, J. R., Possnert, G., Sigl, M., Svensson, A., Synal, H. A., Welten, K. C. & Woodruff, T. E. Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of AD 774/5 and 993/4. Nature Communications 6: 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms9611 (2015).

The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Mitzi

2013-01-01

Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

Solar Cycle Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William Dean

2012-01-01

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. II. REFERENCE DYNAMO SOLUTIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul, E-mail: lemerle@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca

In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid 2 × 2D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). This hybrid model is constructed by allowing the surface flux transport (SFT) simulation described in Lemerle et al. to provide the poloidal source term to an axisymmetric FTD simulation defined in a meridional plane, which in turn generates the BMRs required by the SFT. A key aspect of this coupling is the definition of an emergence function describing the probabilitymore » of BMR emergence as a function of the spatial distribution of the internal axisymmetric magnetic field. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate this function, together with other model parameters, against observed cycle 21 emergence data. We present a reference dynamo solution reproducing many solar cycle characteristics, including good hemispheric coupling, phase relationship between the surface dipole and the BMR-generating internal field, and correlation between dipole strength at cycle maximum and peak amplitude of the next cycle. The saturation of the cycle amplitude takes place through the quenching of the BMR tilt as a function of the internal field. The observed statistical scatter about the mean BMR tilt, built into the model, acts as a source of stochasticity which dominates amplitude fluctuations. The model thus can produce Dalton-like epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitude lasting a few cycles and can even shut off entirely following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events.« less

From space weather toward space climate time scales: Substorm analysis from 1993 to 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Viljanen, A.; Mursula, K.; Partamies, N.; Slavin, J. A.

2011-05-01

Magnetic activity in the Northern Hemisphere auroral region was examined during solar cycles 22 and 23 (1993-2008). Substorms were identified from ground-based magnetic field measurements by an automated search engine. On average, 550 substorms were observed per year, which gives in total about 9000 substorms. The interannual, seasonal and solar cycle-to-cycle variations of the substorm number (Rss), substorm duration (Tss), and peak amplitude (Ass) were examined. The declining phases of both solar cycles 22 and 23 were more active than the other solar cycle phases due to the enhanced solar wind speed. The spring substorms during the declining solar cycle phase (∣Ass,decl∣ = 500 nT) were 25% larger than the spring substorms during the ascending solar cycle years (∣Ass,acs∣ = 400 nT). The following seasonal variation was found: the most intense substorms occurred during spring and fall, the largest substorm frequency in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and the longest-duration substorms in summer. Furthermore, we found a winter-summer asymmetry in the substorm number and duration, which is speculated to be due to the variations in the ionospheric conductivity. The solar cycle-to-cycle variation was found in the yearly substorm number and peak amplitude. The decline from the peak substorm activity in 1994 and 2003 to the following minima took 3 years during solar cycle 22, while it took 6 years during solar cycle 23.

Deciphering The Fall And Rise Of The Dead Sea In Relation To Solar Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousef, Shahinaz M.

2005-03-01

Solar Forcing on closed seas and Lakes is space time dependent. The Cipher of the Dead Sea level variation since 1200 BC is solved in the context of millenium and Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycles time scales. It is found that the pattern of Dead Sea level variation follows the pattern of major millenium solar cycles. The 70 m rise of Dead Sea around 1AD is due to the forcing of the maximum millenium major solar cycle. Although the pattern of the Dead Sea level variation is almost identical to major solar cycles pattern between 1100 and 1980 AD, there is a dating problem of the Dead Sea time series around 1100-1300 AD that time. A discrepancy that should be corrected for the solar and Dead Sea series to fit. Detailed level variations of the Dead Sea level for the past 200 years are solved in terms of the 80-120 years solar Wolf-Gliessberg magnetic cycles. Solar induced climate changes do happen at the turning points of those cycles. Those end-start and maximum turning points are coincident with the change in the solar rotation rate due to the presence of weak solar cycles. Such weak cycles occur in series of few cycles between the end and start of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Another one or two weak r solar cycle occur following the maximum of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Weak cycles induce drop in the energy budget emitted from the sun and reaching the Earth thus causing solar induced climate change. An 8 meter sudden rise of Dead Sea occur prior 1900 AD due to positive solar forcing of the second cycle of the weak cycles series on the Dead Sea. The same second weak cycle induced negative solar forcing on Lake Chad. The first weak solar cycle forced Lake Victoria to rise abruptly in 1878. The maximum turning point of the solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle induced negative forcing on both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea causing their shrinkage to an alarming reduced area ever since. On the other hand, few years delayed positive forcing caused Lake Chad and the Equatorial African lakes to rise abruptly by several meters. Since the present solar cycle number 23 is the first weak cycle of a series, and since it caused 1.6 m sharp rise in Lake Victoria in 1997, then there is a high probability that the Dead Sea will rise by the beginning of the second weak cycle in few years time. And since both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea are very much in coherence since the late 1950s, then it is rather likely that the Aral Sea will rise with God's wish in the near future. However it is also demanded that Israel should allow more water of the Jordan River to feed the Dead Sea before its real death. Plans for joining the Dead sea to the Red and or to the Mediterranean Seas should be cancelled owing the damaging harm it will cause the Dead Sea as a perfect indicator of solar induced climate change on one hand. On the other hand, the Dead Sea time series always show abrupt changes that can be as high as 70 m; if we add to this a planned artificial rise of the Dead Sea to its level of the thirties, then a damaging flooding effect will ruin the establishments and environment greatly.

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javaraiah, J.

2017-11-01

The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 - 24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 - 2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 - 2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 - 40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2014-01-01

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

Interplanetary magnetic field data book

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, J. H.

1975-01-01

An interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data set is presented that is uniform with respect to inclusion of cislunar IMF data only, and which has as complete time coverage as presently possible over a full solar cycle. Macroscale phenomena in the interplanetary medium (sector structure, heliolatitude variations, solar cycle variations, etc.) and other phenomena (e.g., ground level cosmic-ray events) for which knowledge of the IMF with hourly resolution is necessary, are discussed. Listings and plots of cislunar hourly averaged IMP parameters over the period November 27, 1963, to May 17, 1974, are presented along with discussion of the mutual consistency of the IMF data used herein. The magnetic tape from which the plots and listings were generated, which is available from the National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC), is also discussed.

The mean coronal magnetic field determined from Helios Faraday rotation measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patzold, M.; Bird, M. K.; Volland, H.; Levy, G. S.; Seidel, B. L.; Stelzried, C. T.

1987-01-01

Coronal Faraday rotation of the linearly polarized carrier signals of the Helios spacecraft was recorded during the regularly occurring solar occultations over almost a complete solar cycle from 1975 to 1984. These measurements are used to determine the average strength and radial variation of the coronal magnetic field at solar minimum at solar distances from 3-10 solar radii, i.e., the range over which the complex fields at the coronal base are transformed into the interplanetary spiral. The mean coronal magnetic field in 1975-1976 was found to decrease with radial distance according to r exp-alpha, where alpha = 2.7 + or - 0.2. The mean field magnitude was 1.0 + or - 0.5 x 10 to the -5th tesla at a nominal solar distance of 5 solar radii. Possibly higher magnetic field strengths were indicated at solar maximum, but a lack of data prevented a statistical determination of the mean coronal field during this epoch.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldwin, M.P.; Dunkerton, T.J.

1989-08-01

The 10.7 cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with north pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). The authors supplement observations with calculations showing that temperatures over most of the northern hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with north pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle. The authors present results, similar to the observed solar cycle correlations, with simulated harmonics of various periods replacing the solar cycle. These calculationsmore » demonstrate the correlations at least as high as those for the solar cycle results may be obtained using simulated harmonics.« less

Test results of an organic Rankine-cycle power module for a small community solar thermal power experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, T. B.

1985-01-01

The organic Rankine-cycle (ORC) power conversion assembly was tested. Qualification testing of the electrical transport subsystem was also completed. Test objectives were to verify compatibility of all system elements with emphasis on control of the power conversion assembly, to evaluate the performance and efficiency of the components, and to validate operating procedures. After 34 hours of power generation under a wide range of conditions, the net module efficiency exceeded 18% after accounting for all parasitic losses.

The latitude dependencies of the solar wind. [of interplanetary magnetic field polarity and configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, R. L.; Winge, C. R., Jr.

1974-01-01

The motion of spacecraft following the earth's orbit occurs within the solar latitude range of 7 deg 15 min N on approximately September 7 to 7 deg 15 min S on approximately March 6. The latitude dependencies so far detected within this range have shown that the photospheric dipole-like field of the sun makes very important contributions to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed near the ecliptic. Changes in geomagnetic activity from even to odd numbered 11-year solar cycles are related to changes in the sun's dipolar field. The north-south IMF component and meridional, nonradial flow are important to a complete understanding of steady-state solar wind dynamics. Coronal conditions must be latitude-dependent in a way that accounts for the observed latitude dependence of the velocity and density of the solar wind.

Preliminary operational results from the Willard solar power system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fenton, D. L.; Abernathy, G. H.; Krivokapich, G.; Ellibee, D. E.; Chilton, V.

1980-01-01

The solar powered system located near Willard, New Mexico, generates mechanical or electrical power at a capacity of 19 kW (25 HP). The solar collection system incorporates east/west tracking parabolic trough collectors with a total aperture area of 1275 sq m (13,720 sq ft). The hot oil type thermal energy storage is sufficient for approximately 20 hours of power system operation. The system utilizes a reaction type turbine in conjunction with an organic Rankine cycle engine. Total collector field efficiency reaches a maximum of 20 percent near the winter solstice and about 50 percent during the summer. During the month of July, 1979, the system pumped 60 percent of the 35,300 cu m (28.6 acre-feet) of water delivered. Operating efficiencies for the turbine component, organic Rankine cycle engine and the complete power system are respectively 65 to 75 percent, 12 to 15 percent and 5 to 6 percent. Significant maintenance time was expended on both the collector and power systems throughout the operational period.

Full-size solar dynamic heat receiver thermal-vacuum tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedgwick, L. M.; Kaufmann, K. J.; Mclallin, K. L.; Kerslake, Thomas W.

1991-01-01

The testing of a full-size, 120 kW, solar dynamic heat receiver utilizing high-temperature thermal energy storage is described. The purpose of the test program was to quantify receiver thermodynamic performance, operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber with liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate to partly simulate a low-Earth-orbit environment. The cavity of the receiver was heated by an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones to allow axially and circumferentially varied flux distributions. A closed-Brayton cycle engine simulator conditioned a helium-xenon gas mixture to specific interface conditions to simulate the various operational modes of the solar dynamic power module on the Space Station Freedom. Inlet gas temperature, pressure, and flow rate were independently varied. A total of 58 simulated orbital cycles, each 94 minutes in duration, was completed during the test conduct period.

Full-size solar dynamic heat receiver thermal-vacuum tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedgwick, L. M.; Kaufmann, K. J.; Mclallin, K. L.; Kerslake, T. W.

1991-01-01

The testing of a full-size, 102 kW, solar dynamic heat receiver utilizing high-temperature thermal energy storage is described. The purpose of the test program was to quantify receiver thermodynamic performance, operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber with liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate to partly simulate a low-Earth-orbit environment. The cavity of the receiver was heated by an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones to allow axially and circumferentially varied flux distributions. A closed-Brayton cycle engine simulator conditioned a helium-xenon gas mixture to specific interface conditions to simulate the various operational modes of the solar dynamic power module on the Space Station Freedom. Inlet gas temperature, pressure, and flow rate were independently varied. A total of 58 simulated orbital cycles, each 94 minutes in duration, was completed during the test period.

Preliminary operational results from the Willard solar power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenton, D. L.; Abernathy, G. H.; Krivokapich, G.; Ellibee, D. E.; Chilton, V.

1980-05-01

The solar powered system located near Willard, New Mexico, generates mechanical or electrical power at a capacity of 19 kW (25 HP). The solar collection system incorporates east/west tracking parabolic trough collectors with a total aperture area of 1275 sq m (13,720 sq ft). The hot oil type thermal energy storage is sufficient for approximately 20 hours of power system operation. The system utilizes a reaction type turbine in conjunction with an organic Rankine cycle engine. Total collector field efficiency reaches a maximum of 20 percent near the winter solstice and about 50 percent during the summer. During the month of July, 1979, the system pumped 60 percent of the 35,300 cu m (28.6 acre-feet) of water delivered. Operating efficiencies for the turbine component, organic Rankine cycle engine and the complete power system are respectively 65 to 75 percent, 12 to 15 percent and 5 to 6 percent. Significant maintenance time was expended on both the collector and power systems throughout the operational period.

Full-size solar dynamic heat receiver thermal-vacuum tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedgwick, L. M.; Kaufmann, K. J.; McLallin, K. L.; Kerslake, T. W.

The testing of a full-size, 102 kW, solar dynamic heat receiver utilizing high-temperature thermal energy storage is described. The purpose of the test program was to quantify receiver thermodynamic performance, operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber with liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate to partly simulate a low-Earth-orbit environment. The cavity of the receiver was heated by an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones to allow axially and circumferentially varied flux distributions. A closed-Brayton cycle engine simulator conditioned a helium-xenon gas mixture to specific interface conditions to simulate the various operational modes of the solar dynamic power module on the Space Station Freedom. Inlet gas temperature, pressure, and flow rate were independently varied. A total of 58 simulated orbital cycles, each 94 minutes in duration, was completed during the test period.

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

Evolution of Our Understanding of the Solar Dynamo During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle 24 has been an exciting cycle for our understanding of the solar dynamo: 1. It was the first cycle for which dynamo based predictions were ever used teaching us valuable lessons. 2. It has given us the opportunity to observe a deep minimum and a weak cycle with a high level of of observational detail . 3. It is full of breaktrhoughs in anelastic MHD dynamo simulations (regular cycles, buoyant flux-tubes, mounder-like events). 4. It has seen the creation of bridges between the kinematic flux-transport and anelastic MHD approaches. 5. It has ushered a new generation of realistic surface flux-transport simulations 6. We have achieved significant observational progress in our understanding of solar cycle propagation. The objective of this talk is to highlight some of the most important results, giving special emphasis on what they have taught us about solar cycle predictability.

Evaluation of the technical feasibility and effective cost of various wafer thicknesses for the manufacture of solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Three wafering demonstration runs were completed on the Yasunaga wire saw. Wafer thickness/taper uniformity is excellent. Many small problems were encountered with Yasunaga accessories, slowing the effort. A wafer characterization cycle was defined and will be initiated during the next period.

Advanced development receiver thermal vacuum tests with cold wall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedgwick, Leigh M.

1991-01-01

The first ever testing of a full size solar dynamic heat receiver using high temperature thermal energy storage was completed. The heat receiver was designed to meet the requirements for operation on the Space Station Freedom. The purpose of the test program was to quantify the receiver thermodynamic performance, its operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber with liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate to partially simulate a low Earth orbit environment. The cavity of the receiver was heated by an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones to produce flux distributions typical of candidate concentrators. A closed Brayton cycle engine simulator conditioned a helium xenon gas mixture to specific interface conditions to simulate various operational modes of the solar dynamic power module. Inlet gas temperature, pressure, and flow rate were independently varied. A total of 58 simulated orbital cycles were completed during the test conduct period. The test hardware, execution of testing, test data, and post test inspections are described.

SMM X-ray polychromator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strong, Keith T.; Haisch, Bernhard M. (Compiler); Lemen, James R. (Compiler); Acton, L. W.; Bawa, H. S.; Claflin, E. S.; Freeland, S. L.; Slater, G. L.; Kemp, D. L.; Linford, G. A.

1988-01-01

The range of observing and analysis programs accomplished with the X-Ray Polychromator (XRP) instruments during the decline of solar cycle 21 and the rise of the solar cycle 22 is summarized. Section 2 describes XRP operations and current status. This is meant as a guide on how the instrument is used to obtain data and what its capabilities are for potential users. The science section contains a series of representative abstracts from recently published papers on major XRP science topics. It is not meant to be a complete list but illustrates the type of science that can come from the analysis of the XRP data. There then follows a series of appendixes that summarize the major data bases that are available. Appendix A is a complete bibliography of papers and presentations produced using XRP data. Appendix B lists all the spectroscopic data accumulated by the Flat Crystal Spectrometer (FCS). Appendix C is a compilation of the XRP flare catalogue for events equivalent to a GOES C-level flare or greater. It lists the start, peak and end times as well as the peak Ca XIX flux.

SMM X-ray polychromator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Keith T.; Haisch, Bernhard M.; Lemen, James R.; Acton, L. W.; Bawa, H. S.; Claflin, E. S.; Freeland, S. L.; Slater, G. L.; Kemp, D. L.; Linford, G. A.

1988-05-01

The range of observing and analysis programs accomplished with the X-Ray Polychromator (XRP) instruments during the decline of solar cycle 21 and the rise of the solar cycle 22 is summarized. Section 2 describes XRP operations and current status. This is meant as a guide on how the instrument is used to obtain data and what its capabilities are for potential users. The science section contains a series of representative abstracts from recently published papers on major XRP science topics. It is not meant to be a complete list but illustrates the type of science that can come from the analysis of the XRP data. There then follows a series of appendixes that summarize the major data bases that are available. Appendix A is a complete bibliography of papers and presentations produced using XRP data. Appendix B lists all the spectroscopic data accumulated by the Flat Crystal Spectrometer (FCS). Appendix C is a compilation of the XRP flare catalogue for events equivalent to a GOES C-level flare or greater. It lists the start, peak and end times as well as the peak Ca XIX flux.

Advanced subsystems development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Livingston, F. R.

1978-01-01

The concept design for a small (less than 10 MWe) solar thermal electric generating plant was completed using projected 1985 technology. The systems requirements were defined and specified. The components, including an engineering prototype for one 15 kWe module of the generating plant, were conceptually designed. Significant features of the small solar thermal power plant were identified as the following: (1) 15 kWe Stirling-cycle engine/alternator with constant power output; (2) 10 meter point-focusing paraboloidal concentrator with cantilevered cellular glass reflecting panels; (3) primary heat pipe with 800 C output solar cavity receiver; (4) secondary heat pipe with molten salt thermal energy storage unit; (5) electric energy transport system; and (6) advanced battery energy storage capability.

Sunspot Time Series: Passive and Active Intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zięba, S.; Nieckarz, Z.

2014-07-01

Solar activity slowly and irregularly decreases from the first spotless day (FSD) in the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and systematically, but also in an irregular way, increases to the new cycle maximum after the last spotless day (LSD). The time interval between the first and the last spotless day can be called the passive interval (PI), while the time interval from the last spotless day to the first one after the new cycle maximum is the related active interval (AI). Minima of solar cycles are inside PIs, while maxima are inside AIs. In this article, we study the properties of passive and active intervals to determine the relation between them. We have found that some properties of PIs, and related AIs, differ significantly between two group of solar cycles; this has allowed us to classify Cycles 8 - 15 as passive cycles, and Cycles 17 - 23 as active ones. We conclude that the solar activity in the PI declining phase (a descending phase of the previous cycle) determines the strength of the approaching maximum in the case of active cycles, while the activity of the PI rising phase (a phase of the ongoing cycle early growth) determines the strength of passive cycles. This can have implications for solar dynamo models. Our approach indicates the important role of solar activity during the declining and the rising phases of the solar-cycle minimum.

Solar Flare Impulsive Phase Observations from SDO and Other Observatories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlin, Phillip C.; Woods, Thomas N.; Schrijver, Karel; Warren, Harry; Milligan, Ryan; Christe, Steven; Brosius, Jeffrey W.

2010-01-01

With the start of normal operations of the Solar Dynamics Observatory in May 2010, the Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) have been returning the most accurate solar XUV and EUV measurements every 10 and 12 seconds, respectively, at almost 100% duty cycle. The focus of the presentation will be the solar flare impulsive phase observations provided by EVE and AIA and what these observations can tell us about the evolution of the initial phase of solar flares. Also emphasized throughout is how simultaneous observations with other instruments, such as RHESSI, SOHO-CDS, and HINODE-EIS, will help provide a more complete characterization of the solar flares and the evolution and energetics during the impulsive phase. These co-temporal observations from the other solar instruments can provide information such as extending the high temperature range spectra and images beyond that provided by the EUV and XUV wavelengths, provide electron density input into the lower atmosphere at the footpoints, and provide plasma flows of chromospheric evaporation, among other characteristics.

ESTIMATE OF SOLAR MAXIMUM USING THE 1-8 Å GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES X-RAY MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winter, L. M.; Balasubramaniam, K. S., E-mail: lwinter@aer.com

We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in the 1-8 Å band from 1986 to the present, covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. The X-ray background level tracks the progression of the solar cycle through its maximum and minimum. Using the X-ray data, we can therefore make estimates of the solar cycle progression and the date of solar maximum. Based upon our analysis, we conclude that the Sun reached its hemisphere-averagedmore » maximum in solar cycle 24 in late 2013. This is within six months of the NOAA prediction of a maximum in spring 2013.« less

Large Energetic Particle Pressures in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lario, D.; Decker, R. B.; Roelof, E. C.; Viñas, A. F.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Berger, L.

2017-09-01

We study periods of elevated energetic particle intensities observed at the L1 Sun-Earth Lagrangian point when the partial energy density associated with energetic (≥80 keV) particles (PEP) dominates that of the local magnetic field (PB) and thermal plasma populations (PPLS). These periods are not uncommon and are frequently observed prior to the passage of interplanetary (IP) shocks. Because of the significant decreases in key solar wind parameters observed during solar cycle 24 [e.g., 1], we were motivated to perform a comparative statistical analysis to determine if the occurrence rate of periods when PEP exceeded PB or PPLS, or both, differed between solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that the general decrease of PB and PPLS in solar cycle 24 was also accompanied by a general decrease of periods with elevated PEP. The result is that solar cycle 24 showed a lower number of time intervals dominated by PEP. We analyze whether these differences can be related to the properties of the IP shocks observed at L1. Incomplete datasets of shock parameters do not show significant differences between solar cycles 23 and 24 that would allow us to explain the difference in the number of periods with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS. We analyze then the averaged plasma parameters measured in the upstream region of the shocks and find significantly lower solar wind proton temperatures and magnetic field magnitude upstream of IP shocks in solar cycle 24 compared with those in solar cycle 23. These factors, together with the lower level of solar activity, may explain the lower particle intensities in solar cycle 24 and hence the fewer events with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS.

A study of the asymmetrical distribution of solar activity features on solar and plasma parameters (1967-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Borie, M. A.; El-Taher, A. M.; Aly, N. E.; Bishara, A. A.

2018-04-01

The impact of asymmetrical distribution of hemispheric sunspot areas (SSAs) on the interplanetary magnetic field, plasma, and solar parameters from 1967 to 2016 has been studied. The N-S asymmetry of solar-plasma activities based on SSAs has a northern dominance during solar cycles 20 and 24. However, it has a tendency to shift to the southern hemisphere in cycles 21, 22, and 23. The solar cycle 23 showed that the sorted southern SSAs days predominated over the northern days by ˜17%. Through the solar cycles 21-24, the SSAs of the southern hemisphere were more active. In contrast, the northern SSAs predominate over the southern one by 9% throughout solar cycle 20. On the other hand, the average differences of field magnitude for the sorted northern and southern groups during solar cycles 20-24 are statistically insignificant. Clearly, twenty years showed that the solar plasma ion density from the sorted northern group was denser than that of southern group and a highest northern dominant peak occurred in 1971. In contrast, seventeen out of fifty years showed the reverse. In addition, there are fifteen clear asymmetries of solar wind speed (SWS), with SWS (N) > SWS (S), and during the years 1972, 2002, and 2008, the SWS from the sorted northern group was faster than that of southern activity group by 6.16 ± 0.65 km/s, 5.70 ± 0.86 km/s, and 5.76 ± 1.35 km/s, respectively. For the solar cycles 20-24, the grand-averages of P from the sorted solar northern and southern have nearly the same parameter values. The solar plasma was hotter for the sorted northern activity group than the southern ones for 17 years out of 50. Most significant northern prevalent asymmetries were found in 1972 (5.76 ± 0.66 × 103 K) and 1996 (4.7 ± 0.8 × 103 K), while two significant equivalent dominant southern asymmetries (˜3.8 ± 0.3 × 103 K) occurred in 1978 and 1993. The grand averages of sunspot numbers have symmetric activity for the two sorted northern and southern hemispheres through the solar cycles 20 and 21. The sunspots tend to be the southern dominance during the solar cycles 22 and 23, and it shifted during solar cycle 24 to symmetric distribution on both solar hemispheres.

Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP): Towards Predicting Next Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Shiota, D.; Kanou, O.; Fujiyama, M.; Kusano, K.

2016-10-01

It is believed that the longer-term variations of the solar activity can affect the Earth's climate. Therefore, predicting the next solar cycle is crucial for the forecast of the "solar-terrestrial environment". To build prediction schemes for the activity level of the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Although three-years prediction can be almost achieved, the prediction of next solar cycle is very limited, so far. We are developing a five-years prediction scheme by combining the Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model and the most accurate measurements of solar magnetic fields as a part of the PSTEP (Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction),. We estimate the meridional flow, differential rotation, and turbulent diffusivity from recent modern observations (Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory). These parameters are used in the SFT models to predict the polar magnetic fields strength at the solar minimum. In this presentation, we will explain the outline of our strategy to predict the next solar cycle. We also report the present status and the future perspective of our project.

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.

2000-01-01

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

Helioseismology Observations of Solar Cycles and Dynamo Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, A. G.; Guerrero, G.; Pipin, V.

2017-12-01

Helioseismology observations from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017, provide unique insight into the dynamics of the Sun's deep interior for two solar cycles. The data allow us to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and compare these variations with dynamo models and simulations. We use results of the local and global helioseismology data processing pipelines at the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (Stanford University) to study solar-cycle variations of the differential rotation, meridional circulation, large-scale flows and global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the evolution of surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and development of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. For the physical interpretation of observed variations, the results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the solar dynamo mechanism, may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles, and also give information about the next solar cycle.

Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Donmez, B.; Obridko, V. N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2018-04-01

We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is 113± 1.6 days while we detected much longer periodicities (327± 13, 312 ± 11, and 256± 8 days) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 55± 0.7 days during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a 113± 1.3 days period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only 31± 0.2 days for Cycle 22 and 72± 1.3 days for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was 327± 13 days during Solar Cycle 23.

How active was solar cycle 22?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Pesnell, W. D.; Woods, T. N.; Rottman, G. J.

1993-01-01

Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity.

Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, Judit M.; Willson, Richard C.; Donnelly, Richard F.

1991-01-01

Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

Evaluation of long term solar activity effects on GPS derived TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoori, Azad A.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Ahmad, Rafi; Atulkar, Roshni; M, Aslam A.; Bhardwaj, Shivangi; Malvi, Bhupendra; Purohit, P. K.; Gwal, A. K.

2016-10-01

The solar activity hence the solar radiance follows a long term periodic variability with eleven years periodicity, known as solar cycle. This drives the long term variability of the ionosphere. In the present problem we investigate the long term behaviour of the ionosphere with the eleven year cyclic solar activity. Under the present study we characterize the ionospheric variability by Total Electron Content (TEC) using measurements made by Global Positioning System (GPS) and solar cycle variability by various solar activity indices. We make use of five solar activity indices viz. sunspot number (Rz), solar radio Flux (F10.7 cm), EUV Flux (26-34 nm), flare index and CME occurrences. The long term variability of these solar activity indices were then compared and correlated with the variability of ionospheric TEC, at a mid latitude station, Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), of Japan, during the solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of cycle 24. From our study, we found that long term changes in the ionospheric TEC vary synchronously with corresponding changes in the solar activity indices. The correlation analysis shows that all the solar activity indices exhibit a very strong correlation with TEC (R =0.76 -0.99). Moreover the correlation between the two is stronger in the descending phase of the solar cycle. The correlation is found to be remarkably strongest during the deep minimum of the solar cycle 24 i.e. between 2007- 2009. Also we noticed a hysteresis effect exists with solar radio flux (F10.7 cm) and solar EUV flux (26-34 nm). This effect is absent with other parameters.

SWAP OBSERVATIONS OF THE LONG-TERM, LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET SOLAR CORONA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seaton, Daniel B.; De Groof, Anik; Berghmans, David

The Sun Watcher with Active Pixels and Image Processing (SWAP) EUV solar telescope on board the Project for On-Board Autonomy 2 spacecraft has been regularly observing the solar corona in a bandpass near 17.4 nm since 2010 February. With a field of view of 54 × 54 arcmin, SWAP provides the widest-field images of the EUV corona available from the perspective of the Earth. By carefully processing and combining multiple SWAP images, it is possible to produce low-noise composites that reveal the structure of the EUV corona to relatively large heights. A particularly important step in this processing was tomore » remove instrumental stray light from the images by determining and deconvolving SWAP's point-spread function from the observations. In this paper, we use the resulting images to conduct the first-ever study of the evolution of the large-scale structure of the corona observed in the EUV over a three year period that includes the complete rise phase of solar cycle 24. Of particular note is the persistence over many solar rotations of bright, diffuse features composed of open magnetic fields that overlie polar crown filaments and extend to large heights above the solar surface. These features appear to be related to coronal fans, which have previously been observed in white-light coronagraph images and, at low heights, in the EUV. We also discuss the evolution of the corona at different heights above the solar surface and the evolution of the corona over the course of the solar cycle by hemisphere.« less

On the variation of the Nimbus 7 total solar irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1992-01-01

For the interval December 1978 to April 1991, the value of the mean total solar irradiance, as measured by the Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment channel 10C, was 1,372.02 Wm(exp -2), having a standard deviation of 0.65 Wm(exp -2), a coefficient of variation (mean divided by the standard deviation) of 0.047 percent, and a normal deviate z (a measure of the randomness of the data) of -8.019 (inferring a highly significant non-random variation in the solar irradiance measurements, presumably related to the action of the solar cycle). Comparison of the 12-month moving average (also called the 13-month running mean) of solar irradiance to those of the usual descriptors of the solar cycle (i.e., sunspot number, 10.7-cm solar radio flux, and total corrected sunspot area) suggests possibly significant temporal differences. For example, solar irradiance is found to have been greatest on or before mid 1979 (leading solar maximum for cycle 21), lowest in early 1987 (lagging solar minimum for cycle 22), and was rising again through late 1990 (thus, lagging solar maximum for cycle 22), having last reported values below those that were seen in 1979 (even though cycles 21 and 22 were of comparable strength). Presuming a genuine correlation between solar irradiance and the solar cycle (in particular, sunspot number) one infers that the correlation is weak (having a coefficient of correlation r less than 0.84) and that major excursions (both as 'excesses' and 'deficits') have occurred (about every 2 to 3 years, perhaps suggesting a pulsating Sun).

Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V., E-mail: s.j.shepherd@brad.ac.uk, E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk, E-mail: valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk

2014-11-01

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in differentmore » layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.« less

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean

1993-01-01

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C.

2017-12-01

To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25.

Solar thermal organic rankine cycle for micro-generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alkahli, N. A.; Abdullah, H.; Darus, A. N.; Jalaludin, A. F.

2012-06-01

The conceptual design of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driven by solar thermal energy is developed for the decentralized production of electricity of up to 50 kW. Conventional Rankine Cycle uses water as the working fluid whereas ORC uses organic compound as the working fluid and it is particularly suitable for low temperature applications. The ORC and the solar collector will be sized according to the solar flux distribution in the Republic of Yemen for the required power output of 50 kW. This will be a micro power generation system that consists of two cycles, the solar thermal cycle that harness solar energy and the power cycle, which is the ORC that generates electricity. As for the solar thermal cycle, heat transfer fluid (HTF) circulates the cycle while absorbing thermal energy from the sun through a parabolic trough collector and then storing it in a thermal storage to increase system efficiency and maintains system operation during low radiation. The heat is then transferred to the organic fluid in the ORC via a heat exchanger. The organic fluids to be used and analyzed in the ORC are hydrocarbons R600a and R290.

A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. [graphs (charts)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

1978-01-01

On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.

A SOLAR CYCLE LOST IN 1793-1800: EARLY SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS RESOLVE THE OLD MYSTERY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Usoskin, Ilya G.; Mursula, Kalevi; Arlt, Rainer

2009-08-01

Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observations, the quality of the sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784-1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18-19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e., the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790s. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793-1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in the traditional Wolf sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of themore » lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This Letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, and solar dynamo theories, as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.« less

Estimate of the effect of the 11-year solar activity cycle on the ozone content in the stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2014-09-01

Using spectral, cross-spectral, and regression methods, we analyzed the effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on the ozone content in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere via satellite measurement data obtained with the help of SBUV/SBUV2 instruments in 1978-2003. We revealed a high coherence between the ozone content and solar activity level on the solar cycle scale. In much of this area, the ozone content varies approximately in phase with the solar cycle; however, in areas of significant gradients of ozone mixing ratio in the middle stratosphere, the phase shift between ozone and solar oscillations can be considerable, up to π/2. This can be caused by dynamical processes. The altitude maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle were found in the upper vicinity of the stratopause (50-55 km), in the middle stratosphere (35-40 km), and the lower stratosphere (below 25 km). Maximal changes in ozone content in the solar cycle (up to 10% and more) were found in winter and spring in polar regions.

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlock, David; Johnson, Nicholas; Matney, Mark; Krisko, Paula

2008-01-01

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Statistical properties of superactive regions during solar cycles 19-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, A. Q.; Wang, J. X.; Li, J. W.; Feynman, J.; Zhang, J.

2011-10-01

Context. Each solar activity cycle is characterized by a small number of superactive regions (SARs) that produce the most violent of space weather events with the greatest disastrous influence on our living environment. Aims: We aim to re-parameterize the SARs and study the latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of SARs. Methods: We select 45 SARs in solar cycles 21-23, according to the following four parameters: 1) the maximum area of sunspot group, 2) the soft X-ray flare index, 3) the 10.7 cm radio peak flux, and 4) the variation in the total solar irradiance. Another 120 SARs given by previous studies of solar cycles 19-23 are also included. The latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of the 165 SARs in both the Carrington frame and the dynamic reference frame during solar cycles 19-23 are studied statistically. Results: Our results indicate that these 45 SARs produced 44% of all the X class X-ray flares during solar cycles 21-23, and that all the SARs are likely to produce a very fast CME. The latitudinal distributions of SARs display the Maunder butterfly diagrams and SARs occur preferentially in the maximum period of each solar cycle. Northern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 19 and 20 and southern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 21 and 22. In solar cycle 23, however, SARs occurred about equally in each hemisphere. There are two active longitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres, about 160°-200° apart. Applying the improved dynamic reference frame to SARs, we find that SARs rotate faster than the Carrington rate and there is no significant difference between the two hemispheres. The synodic periods are 27.19 days and 27.25 days for the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The longitudinal distribution of SARs is significantly non-axisymmetric and about 75% SARs occurred near two active longitudes with half widths of 45°. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Solar Flare Dynamic Microwave Imaging with EOVSA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gary, D. E.; Chen, B.; Nita, G. M.; Fleishman, G. D.; Yu, S.; White, S. M.; Hurford, G. J.; McTiernan, J. M.

2017-12-01

The Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA) is both an expansion of our existing solar array and serves as a prototype for a much larger future project, the Frequency Agile Solar Radiotelescope (FASR). EOVSA is now complete, and is producing daily imaging of the full solar disk, including active regions and solar radio bursts at hundreds of frequencies in the range 2.8-18 GHz. We present highlights of the 1-s-cadence dynamic imaging spectroscropy of radio bursts we have obtained to date, along with deeper analysis of multi-wavelength observations and modeling of a well-observed burst. These observations are revealing the full life-cycle of the trapped population of high-energy electrons, from their initial acceleration and subsequent energy-evolution to their eventual decay through escape and thermalization. All of our data are being made available for download in both quick-look image form and in the form of the community-standard CASA measurement sets for subsequent imaging and analysis.

Solar perspectives - Israel, solar pond innovator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsberg, S.

1981-07-01

Existing and planned solar pond electricity producing power plants in Israel and California are discussed. Salt ponds, with salinity increasing with depth, are coupled with low temperature, organic working fluid Rankine cycle engines to form self-storage, nonpolluting, electric plants. Average pond thermal gradients range from 25 C surface to 90 C at the bottom; 160 GW of potential power have been projected as currently available from existing natural solar ponds from a partial survey of 14 countries. The largest installation to date has a 220 kW output, and a 5 MW plant is scheduled for completion in 1983. Efficiencies of 10% and a cost of $2,000/kW for a 40 MW plant are projected, a cost which is comparable to that of conventional plants. The 40 MW plant is an optimized design, allowing for modular plant additions to increase capacity.

Geomagnetic storms of cycle 24 and their solar sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watari, Shinichi

2017-05-01

Solar activity of cycle 24 following the deep minimum between cycle 23 and cycle 24 is the weakest one since cycle 14 (1902-1913). Geomagnetic activity is also low in cycle 24. We show that this low geomagnetic activity is caused by the weak dawn-to-dusk solar wind electric field ( E d-d) and that the occurrence rate of E d-d > 5 mV/m decreased in the interval from 2013 to 2014. We picked up seventeen geomagnetic storms with the minimum Dst index of less than -100 nT and identified their solar sources in cycle 24 (2009-2015). It is shown that the relatively slow coronal mass ejections contributed to the geomagnetic storms in cycle 24.

Design Investigation of Solar Powered Lasers for Space Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-05-01

Brayton Cycle Power Units 64 3.4 Heat Exchanger 75 3.5 Waste Heat Radiator 79 3.6 Solar Powered Gas Dynamic Laser 82 3.7 Solar Powered Electric... Brayton Cycle Space Power Units 65 10 Supersonic C02 GDL (1 MW) 85 11 Specific Weights for Comparative Evaluation of Solar Lasers 88 12 Subsonic C02...for the Brayton Cycle Power Units 61 21 Solar Radiation Boiler-Receiver Solar Radiation from the Collectors in Focussed (at left) on the

The "Approximate 150 Day Quasi-Periodicity" in Interplanetary and Solar Phenomena During Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

A"quasi-periodicity" of approx. 150 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena has been reported in earlier solar cycles. We suggest that variations in the occurrence of solar energetic particle events, inter-planetary coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storm sudden commenceents during solar cycle 23 show evidence of this quasi-periodicity, which is also present in the sunspot number, in particular in the northern solar hemisphere. It is not, however, prominent in the interplanetary magnetic field strength.

Solar proton fluxes since 1956. [sunspot activity correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reedy, R. C.

1977-01-01

The fluxes of protons emitted during solar flares since 1956 were evaluated. The depth-versus-activity profiles of Co-56 in several lunar rocks are consistent with the solar proton fluxes detected by experiments on several satellites. Only about 20% of the solar-proton-induced activities of Na-22 and Fe-55 in lunar rocks from early Apollo missions were produced by protons emitted from the sun during solar cycle 20 (1965-1975). The depth-versus-activity data for these radionuclides in several lunar rocks were used to determine the fluxes of protons during solar cycle 19 (1954-1964). The average proton fluxes for cycle 19 are about five times those for both the last million years and for cycle 20 and are about five times the previous estimate for cycle 19 based on neutron-monitor and radio ionospheric measurements. These solar-proton flux variations correlate with changes in sunspot activity.

Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D.

2017-11-01

Aims: We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar-cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods: We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the SFT model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results: We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although a significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicate that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contribute to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allow us to predict the axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60-80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 is even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions: The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer-term prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model.

Comparison of Model and Observations of Middle Atmospheric HOx Response to Solar 27-day Cycles: Quantifying Model Uncertainties due to Photochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Li, K. F.; Shia, R. L.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P.

2016-12-01

HO2 and OH (known as odd oxygen HOx), play an important role in middle atmospheric chemistry, in particular, O3 destruction through catalytic HOx reaction cycles. Due to their photochemical production and short chemical lifetimes, HOx species response rapidly to solar UV irradiance changes during solar cycles, resulting in variability in the corresponding O3 chemistry. Observational evidences for both OH and HO2 variability due to solar cycles have been reported. However, puzzling discrepancies remain. In particular, the large discrepancy between model and observations of solar 11-year cycle signal in OH and the significantly different model results when adopting different solar spectral irradiance (SSI) [Wang et al., 2013] suggest that both uncertainties in SSI variability and uncertainties in our current understanding of HOx-O3 chemistry could contribute to the discrepancy. Since the short-term SSI variability (e.g. changes during solar 27-day cycles) has little uncertainty, investigating 27-day solar cycle signals in HOx allows us to simplify the complex problem and to focus on the uncertainties in chemistry alone. We use the Caltech-JPL photochemical model to simulate observed HOx variability during 27-day cycles. The comparison between Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations and our model results (using standard chemistry and "adjusted chemistry", respectively) will be discussed. A better understanding of uncertainties in chemistry will eventually help us separate the contribution of chemistry from contributions of SSI uncertainties to the complex discrepancy between model and observations of OH responses to solar 11-year cycles.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Prediction of the total cycle 24 of solar activity by several autoregressive methods and by the precursor method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozheredov, V. A.; Breus, T. K.; Obridko, V. N.

2012-12-01

As follows from the statement of the Third Official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) based on the results of an analysis of many solar cycle 24 predictions, there has been no consensus on the amplitude and time of the maximum. There are two different scenarios: 90 units and August 2012 or 140 units and October 2011. The aim of our study is to revise the solar cycle 24 predictions by a comparative analysis of data obtained by three different methods: the singular spectral method, the nonlinear neural-based method, and the precursor method. As a precursor for solar cycle 24, we used the dynamics of the solar magnetic fields forming solar spots with Wolf numbers Rz. According to the prediction on the basis of the neural-based approach, it was established that the maximum of solar cycle 24 is expected to be 70. The precursor method predicted 50 units for the amplitude and April of 2012 for the time of the maximum. In view of the fact that the data used in the precursor method were averaged over 4.4 years, the amplitude of the maximum can be 20-30% larger (i.e., around 60-70 units), which is close to the values predicted by the neural-based method. The protracted minimum of solar cycle 23 and predicted low values of the maximum of solar cycle 24 are reminiscent of the historical Dalton minimum.

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richon, K.; Schatten, K.

2003-01-01

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Statistical Methods for Quantifying the Variability of Solar Wind Transients of All Sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.

2016-12-01

The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of timescales, from small-scale turbulent fluctuations to the 11-year periodicity induced by the solar cycle. Each solar cycle is unique, and this change in overall cycle activity is coupled from the Sun to Earth via the solar wind, leading to long-term trends in space weather. Our work [Tindale & Chapman, 2016] applies novel statistical methods to solar wind transients of all sizes, to quantify the variability of the solar wind associated with the solar cycle. We use the same methods to link solar wind observations with those on the Sun and Earth. We use Wind data to construct quantile-quantile (QQ) plots comparing the statistical distributions of multiple commonly used solar wind-magnetosphere coupling parameters between the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that in each case the distribution is multicomponent, ranging from small fluctuations to extreme values, with the same functional form at all phases of the solar cycle. The change in PDF is captured by a simple change of variables, which is independent of the PDF model. Using this method we can quantify the quietness of the cycle 24 maximum, identify which variable drives the changing distribution of composite parameters such as ɛ, and we show that the distribution of ɛ is less sensitive to changes in its extreme values than that of its constituents. After demonstrating the QQ method on solar wind data, we extend the analysis to include solar and magnetospheric data spanning the same time period. We focus on GOES X-ray flux and WDC AE index data. Finally, having studied the statistics of transients across the full distribution, we apply the same method to time series of extreme bursts in each variable. Using these statistical tools, we aim to track the solar cycle-driven variability from the Sun through the solar wind and into the Earth's magnetosphere. Tindale, E. and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920.

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, N. U.

1983-01-01

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

PubMed Central

Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

2012-01-01

The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

Understanding Solar Cycle Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales. Drawing from dynamo theory, together with the empirical results of past solar activity and similar phenomena for solar-like stars, we show that the variability of the solar cycle can be essentially understood in terms of a weakly nonlinear limit cycle affected by random noise. In contrast to ad hoc “toy models” for the solar cycle, this leads to amore » generic normal-form model, whose parameters are all constrained by observations. The model reproduces the characteristics of the variable solar activity on timescales between decades and millennia, including the occurrence and statistics of extended periods of very low activity (grand minima). Comparison with results obtained with a Babcock–Leighton-type dynamo model confirm the validity of the normal-mode approach.« less

Imprint of long-term solar signal in groundwater recharge fluctuation rates from Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, R. K.; Rajesh, Rekapalli

2014-05-01

Multiple spectral and statistical analyses of a 700 yearlong temporal record of groundwater recharge from the dry lands, Badain Jaran Desert (Inner Mongolia) of Northwest China reveal a stationary harmonic cycle at ~200 ± 20 year. Interestingly, the underlying periodicity in groundwater recharge fluctuations is similar to those of solar-induced climate cycle "Suess wiggles" and appears to be coherent with phases of the climate fluctuations and solar cycles. Matching periodicity of groundwater recharge rates and solar and climate cycles renders a strong impression that solar-induced climate signals may act as a critical amplifier for driving the underlying hydrographic cycle through the common coupling of long-term Sun-climate groundwater linkages.

Solar prediction analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jesse B.

1992-01-01

Solar Activity prediction is essential to definition of orbital design and operational environments for space flight. This task provides the necessary research to better understand solar predictions being generated by the solar community and to develop improved solar prediction models. The contractor shall provide the necessary manpower and facilities to perform the following tasks: (1) review, evaluate, and assess the time evolution of the solar cycle to provide probable limits of solar cycle behavior near maximum end during the decline of solar cycle 22, and the forecasts being provided by the solar community and the techniques being used to generate these forecasts; and (2) develop and refine prediction techniques for short-term solar behavior flare prediction within solar active regions, with special emphasis on the correlation of magnetic shear with flare occurrence.

Temporal Variation of the Rotation of the Solar Mean Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C.

2017-04-01

Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle length for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.

Period and phase comparisons of near-decadal oscillations in solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juckett, David A.

2001-09-01

A more complete understanding of the periodic dynamics of the Sun requires continued exploration of non-11-year oscillations in addition to the benchmark 11-year sunspot cycle. In this regard, several solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray time series were examined to identify common spectral components and their relative phase relationships. Several non-11-year oscillations were identified within the near-decadal range with periods of ~8, 10, 12, 15, 18, 22, and 29 years. To test whether these frequency components were simply low-level noise or were related to a common source, the phases were extracted for each component in each series. The phases were nearly identical across the solar and geomagnetic series, while the corresponding components in four cosmic ray surrogate series exhibited inverted phases, similar to the known phase relationship with the 11-year sunspot cycle. Cluster analysis revealed that this pattern was unlikely to occur by chance. It was concluded that many non-11-year oscillations truly exist in the solar dynamical environment and that these contribute to the complex variations observed in geomagnetic and cosmic ray time series. Using the different energy sensitivities of the four cosmic ray surrogate series, a preliminary indication of the relative intensities of the various solar-induced oscillations was observed. It provides evidence that many of the non-11-year oscillations result from weak interplanetary magnetic field/solar wind oscillations that originate from corresponding variations in the open-field regions of the Sun.

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell. William Dean

2008-01-01

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.

2011-04-10

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers frommore » their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.« less

Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, E. D.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V. L.; Marsh, D. R.

2015-06-01

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP-induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere.

Measurements of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

The solar irradiance is the primary natural energy input into Earth's atmosphere and climate system. Understanding the long-term variations of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) over time scales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for most Sun-climate research topics. There are satellite measurements of the SSI since the 1970s that contribute to understanding the solar cycle variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24. A limiting factor for the accuracy of these results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, for which there are fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. A summary of these satellite SSI measurements, which are primarily in the ultraviolet and only recently in the visible and near infrared, will be presented. Examining SSI trends using a new analysis technique is helping to identify some uncorrected instrumental trends, which once applied to the SSI trends has the potential to provide more accurate solar cycle variability results. This new technique examines the SSI trends at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in a SSI record, and one of the most common components of these derived long-term trends is a downward trend that we attribute to being most likely from uncorrected instrument degradation. Examples of this analysis will be presented for some of the satellite SSI measurements to demonstrate this new technique and how it has potential to improve the understanding of solar cycle variability and to clarify the uncertainties of the trends.

Thermal Cycle Testing of the Powersphere Engineering Development Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Henry; Piszczor, Mike; Kerslake, Thomas W.; Peterson, Todd T.; Scheiman, David A.; Simburger, Edward J.; Giants, Thomas W.; Matsumoto, James H.; Garcia, Alexander; Liu, Simon H.;

Correlation of climate cycles in middle Mississippi Valley loess and Greenland ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Hongfang; Hughes, R.E.; Steele, J.D.; Lepley, S.W.; Tian, J.

2003-01-01

Two complete late Wisconsin loess successions in the middle Mississippi River Valley reveal 39 and 41 alternating paleosol A- and C-horizons. Striking changes in soil color, iron content, and carbonate content define four major and two minor paleosol A-horizon complexes, which were interpreted to represent Wisconsin interstadials 1, 2, 3, 4, and semiinterstadials 1.5 and 2.5, respectively. The timing of Wisconsin interstadials matches that of corresponding Greenland interstadials. Midcontinent loess and Greenland ice records as well as rates of atmospheric 14C production have periodicities in common, suggesting a solar influence. Only a persistent heat and moisture supply could produce prominent paleosol complexes near the continental ice margin. This record suggests that El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation variability has amplified solar forcing, and resultant tropical heat and moisture transport played a significant role in millennial- and centennial-scale climate cycles during the late Wisconsin glaciation over the Northern Hemisphere.

An estimation of global solar p-mode frequencies from IRIS network data: 1989-1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serebryanskiy, A.; Ehgamberdiev, Sh.; Kholikov, Sh.; Fossat, E.; Gelly, B.; Schmider, F. X.; Grec, G.; Cacciani, A.; Palle, P. L.; Lazrek, M.; Hoeksema, J. T.

2001-06-01

The IRIS network has accumulated full disk helioseismological data since July 1989, i.e. a complete 11-year solar cycle. Since the last paper publishing a frequency list [A&A 317 (1997) L71], not only has the network acquired new data, but has also developed new co-operative programs with compatible instruments [Abstr. SOHO 6/GONG 98 Workshop (1998) 51], so that merging IRIS files with these co-operative program data sets has made possible the improvement of the overall duty cycle. This paper presents new estimations of low degree p-mode frequencies obtained from this IRIS++ data bank covering the period 1989-1996, as well as the variation of their main parameters along the total range of magnetic activity, from before the last maximum to the very minimum. A preliminary estimation of the peak profile asymmetries is also included.

Consistency of seven different GNSS global ionospheric mapping techniques during one solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roma-Dollase, David; Hernández-Pajares, Manuel; Krankowski, Andrzej; Kotulak, Kacper; Ghoddousi-Fard, Reza; Yuan, Yunbin; Li, Zishen; Zhang, Hongping; Shi, Chuang; Wang, Cheng; Feltens, Joachim; Vergados, Panagiotis; Komjathy, Attila; Schaer, Stefan; García-Rigo, Alberto; Gómez-Cama, José M.

2018-06-01

In the context of the International GNSS Service (IGS), several IGS Ionosphere Associated Analysis Centers have developed different techniques to provide global ionospheric maps (GIMs) of vertical total electron content (VTEC) since 1998. In this paper we present a comparison of the performances of all the GIMs created in the frame of IGS. Indeed we compare the classical ones (for the ionospheric analysis centers CODE, ESA/ESOC, JPL and UPC) with the new ones (NRCAN, CAS, WHU). To assess the quality of them in fair and completely independent ways, two assessment methods are used: a direct comparison to altimeter data (VTEC-altimeter) and to the difference of slant total electron content (STEC) observed in independent ground reference stations (dSTEC-GPS). The main conclusion of this study, performed during one solar cycle, is the consistency of the results between so many different GIM techniques and implementations.

Space station propulsion-ECLSS interaction study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brennan, Scott M.

1986-01-01

The benefits of the utilization of effluents of the Space Station Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) system are examined. Various ECLSS-propulsion system interaction options are evaluated and compared on the basis of weight, volume, and power requirements. Annual propulsive impulse to maintain station altitude during a complete solar cycle of eleven years and the effect on station resupply are considered.

H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965. [Skylab program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcintosh, P. S.

1975-01-01

Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.

Solar dynamic power for Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labus, Thomas L.; Secunde, Richard R.; Lovely, Ronald G.

1989-01-01

The Space Station Freedom Program is presently planned to consist of two phases. At the completion of Phase 1, Freedom's manned base will consist of a transverse boom with attached manned modules and 75 kW of available electric power supplied by photovoltaic (PV) power sources. In Phase 2, electric power available to the manned base will be increased to 125 kW by the addition of two solar dynamic (SD) power modules, one at each end of the transverse boom. Power for manned base growth beyond Phase 2 will be supplied by additional SD modules. Studies show that SD power for the growth eras will result in life cycle cost savings of $3 to $4 billion when compared to PV-supplied power. In the SD power modules for Space Station Freedom, an offset parabolic concentrator collects and focuses solar energy into a heat receiver. To allow full power operation over the entire orbit, the receiver includes integral thermal energy storage by means of the heat of fusion of a salt mixture. Thermal energy is removed from the receiver and converted to electrical energy by a power conversion unit (PCU) which includes a closed brayton cycle (CBC) heat engine and an alternator. The receiver/PCU/radiator combination will be completely assembled and charged with gas and cooling fluid on earth before launch to orbit. The concentrator subassemblies will be pre-aligned and stowed in the orbiter bay before launch. On orbit, the receiver/PCU/radiator assembly will be installed as a unit. The pre-aligned concentrator panels will then be latched together and the total concentrator attached to the receiver/PCU/radiator by the astronauts. After final electric connections are made and checkout is complete, the SD power module will be ready for operation.

Solar dynamic power for space station freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labus, Thomas L.; Secunde, Richard R.; Lovely, Ronald G.

1989-01-01

The Space Station Freedom Program is presently planned to consist of two phases. At the completion of Phase 1, Freedom's manned base will consist of a transverse boom with attached manned modules and 75 kW of available electric power supplied by photovoltaic (PV) power sources. In Phase 2, electric power available to the manned base will be increased to 125 kW by the addition of two solar dynamic (SD) power modules, one at each end of the transverse boom. Power for manned base growth beyond Phase 2 will be supplied by additional SD modules. Studies show that SD power for the growth eras will result in life cycle cost savings of $3 to $4 billion when compared to PV-supplied power. In the SD power modules for Space Station Freedom, an offset parabolic concentrator collects and focuses solar energy into a heat receiver. To allow full power operation over the entire orbit, the receiver includes integral thermal energy storage by means of the heat of fusion of a salt mixture. Thermal energy is removed from the receiver and converted to electrical energy by a power conversion unit (PCU) which includes a closed brayton cycle (CBC) heat engine and an alternator. The receiver/PCU/radiator combination will be completely assembled and charged with gas and cooling fluid on Earth before launch to orbit. The concentrator subassemblies will be pre-aligned and stowed in the orbiter bay before launch. On orbit, the receiver/PCU/radiator assembly will be installed as a unit. The pre-aligned concentrator panels will then be latched together and the total concentrator attached to the receiver/PCU/radiator by the astronauts. After final electric connections are made and checkout is complete, the SD power module will be ready for operation.

Mercury Conditions for the MESSENGER Mission Simulated in High- Solar-Radiation Vacuum Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Wayne A.

2003-01-01

The MESSENGER (Mercury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry, and Ranging) spacecraft, planned for launch in March 2004, will perform two flybys of Mercury before entering a year-long orbit of the planet in September 2009. The mission will provide opportunities for detailed characterization of the surface, interior, atmosphere, and magnetosphere of the closest planet to the Sun. The NASA Glenn Research Center and the MESSENGER spacecraft integrator, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, have partnered under a Space Act Agreement to characterize a variety of critical components and materials under simulated conditions expected near Mercury. Glenn's Vacuum Facility 6, which is equipped with a solar simulator, can simulate the vacuum and high solar radiation anticipated in Mercury orbit. The MESSENGER test hardware includes a variety of materials and components that are being characterized during the Tank 6 vacuum tests, where the hardware will be exposed to up to 11 suns insolation, simulating conditions expected in Mercury orbit. In 2002, ten solar vacuum tests were conducted, including beginning of life, end of life, backside exposure, and solar panel thermal shock cycling tests. Components tested include candidate solar array panels, sensors, thermal shielding materials, and communication devices. As an example, for the solar panel thermal shock cycling test, two candidate solar array panels were suspended on a lift mechanism that lowered the panels into a liquid-nitrogen-cooled box. After reaching -140 C, the panels were then lifted out of the box and exposed to the equivalent of 6 suns (8.1 kilowatts per square meters). After five cold soak/heating cycles were completed successfully, there was no apparent degradation in panel performance. An anticipated 100-hr thermal shield life test is planned for autumn, followed by solar panel flight qualification tests in winter. Glenn's ongoing support to the MESSENGER program has been instrumental in identifying design solutions and validating thermal performance models under a very aggressive development schedule. The test data have assisted Johns Hopkins engineers in selecting a flight solar array vendor and a thermal shield design. MESSENGER is one in a series of missions in NASA's Discovery Program. Infrared thermography provides data on the thermal gradients in the MESSENGER components during high solar insolation vacuum testing.

Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

2009-04-01

The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.

The solar cycle dependence of the location and shape of the Venus bow shock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, T.L.; Luhmann, J.G.; Russell, C.T.

1990-09-01

From initial Pioneer Venus observations during the maximum of solar cycle 21 it was evident that the position of the Venus bow shock varies with solar activity. The bow shock radius in the terminator plane changed from 2.4 R{sub v} to 2.1 R{sub v} as solar activity went from maximum to minimum and, as activity has increased in cycle 22, it has increased again. The recent studies of the subsolar region show that the altitude of the nose of the bow shock varies from 1,600 km at solar minimum to 2,200 km at intermediate solar activity in concert with themore » terminator altitude so that the shape remains constant and only the size varies during the solar cycle. Using a gas dynamic model and the observed bow shock location, the authors infer the variation in the size of the effective obstacle during the solar cycle. At solar maximum, the effective obstacle is larger than the ionopause as if a magnetic barrier exists in the inner magnetosheath. This magnetic barrier acts as the effective obstacle deflecting the magnetosheath plasma about 500 km above the surface of Venus. However, at solar minimum the effective obstacle is well below the subsolar ionopause, and some absorption of the solar wind plasma by the Venus neutral atmosphere is suggested by these observations. The dependence of the solar cycle variation of the shock position on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field reinforces the idea that planetary ion pickup is important in the interaction of the solar wind with Venus.« less

A Feasibility Study of CO2-Based Rankine Cycle Powered by Solar Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin-Rong; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Fujima, Katsumi; Enomoto, Masatoshi; Sawada, Noboru

An experiment study was carried out in order to investigate feasibility of CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. The proposed cycle is to achieve a cogeneration of heat and power, which consists of evacuated solar tube collectors, power generating turbine, heat recovery system, and feed pump. The Rankine cycle of the system utilizes solar collectors to convert CO2 into high-temperature supercritical state, used to drive a turbine and produce electrical power. The cycle also recovers thermal energy, which can be used for absorption refrigerator, air conditioning, hot water supply so on for a building. A set of experimental set-up was constructed to investigate the performance of the CO2-based Rankine cycle. The results show the cycle can achieve production of heat and power with reasonable thermodynamics efficiency and has a great potential of the application of the CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. In addition, some research interests related to the present study will also be discussed in this paper.

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar cycle effect in SBUV/SBUV 2 ozone data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, Aleksandr

Effect of the 11-year solar cycle on stratospheric ozone is analyzed using the data of ozone measurements with SBUV/SBUV 2 instruments aboard Nimbus 7, NOAA 9, NOAA 11, NOAA 14, NOAA 16, and NOAA 17-NOAA 19 satellites for 1978-2012 (ftp://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/sbuv/). High-resolution spectral and cross-spectral methods as well as the method of multiple linear regression were used for the analysis. The regression model takes into account the annual variation, the linear trend, the solar cycle effect and the effects on ozone of the products of the Pinatubo volcano eruption and the quasi-biennial oscillations in the equatorial stratospheric wind. The cross-spectral analysis of ozone concentration and 10.7 cm solar radio flux shows that, generally, 11-year ozone variations in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere lag behind while ozone variations in the low-latitude lower stratosphere lead the solar cycle. The phase shift between the ozone variations and the solar cycle reaches pi/2 in 35-40 km layer over the tropics and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere. Calculations show that taking into account the phase shift is especially important for correct estimation of the ozone response to the solar cycle in the tropical middle stratosphere. Local maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle are noted around a year below the stratopause (45-50 km), in 30-35 km layer in the middle stratosphere, and in the polar lower stratosphere. The sensitivity of the ozone response to the solar cycle for the whole period of 1978-2012 is less than that for the period of 1978-2003 which does not include the 24th solar cycle with anomalously small amplitude. The ozone response is seasonally dependent. Maximal amplitudes of the ozone response are characteristic for polar latitudes during winter-spring periods. For example ozone changes related to the solar cycle can reach 5% in the low and middle latitudes during the 1978-2012 period, while winter-spring ozone changes approach 8-9% in the Arctic lower mesosphere and lower stratosphere and 12% in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. These results point at an important role of atmospheric circulation in the response of the Earth atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle.

Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, R. H.; Marzouk, B. A.

2018-06-01

Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24t = 88.4 with rise time Tr = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R24E = 77.9 with rise time Tr = 4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raamin = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traamin = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 126 with rise time Tr107 = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

The Solar Wind Source Cycle: Relationship to Dynamo Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lee, C. O.; Jian, L. K.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Arge, C. N.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle trends of interest include the evolving properties of the solar wind, the heliospheric medium through which the Sun's plasmas and fields interact with Earth and the planets -including the evolution of CME/ICMEs enroute. Solar wind sources include the coronal holes-the open field regions that constantly evolve with solar magnetic fields as the cycle progresses, and the streamers between them. The recent cycle has been notably important in demonstrating that not all solar cycles are alike when it comes to contributions from these sources, including in the case of ecliptic solar wind. In particular, it has modified our appreciation of the low latitude coronal hole and streamer sources because of their relative prevalence. One way to understand the basic relationship between these source differences and what is happening inside the Sun and on its surface is to use observation-based models like the PFSS model to evaluate the evolution of the coronal field geometry. Although the accuracy of these models is compromised around solar maximum by lack of global surface field information and the sometimes non-potential evolution of the field related to more frequent and widespread emergence of active regions, they still approximate the character of the coronal field state. We use these models to compare the inferred recent cycle coronal holes and streamer belt sources of solar wind with past cycle counterparts. The results illustrate how (still) hemispherically asymmetric weak polar fields maintain a complex mix of low-to-mid latitude solar wind sources throughout the latest cycle, with a related marked asymmetry in the hemispheric distribution of the ecliptic wind sources. This is likely to be repeated until the polar field strength significantly increases relative to the fields at low latitudes, and the latter symmetrize.

Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2011-01-01

Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements, rather than requiring an unexpected change in the physical behavior of the Sun.

Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. M.

1982-01-01

Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated.

The Fraction of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections That Are Magnetic Clouds: Evidence for a Solar Cycle Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

"Magnetic clouds" (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) characterized by enhanced magnetic fields with an organized rotation in direction, and low plasma beta. Though intensely studied, MCs only constitute a fraction of all the ICMEs that are detected in the solar wind. A comprehensive survey of ICMEs in the near- Earth solar wind during the ascending, maximum and early declining phases of solar cycle 23 in 1996 - 2003 shows that the MC fraction varies with the phase of the solar cycle, from approximately 100% (though with low statistics) at solar minimum to approximately 15% at solar maximum. A similar trend is evident in near-Earth observations during solar cycles 20 - 21, while Helios 1/2 spacecraft observations at 0.3 - 1.0 AU show a weaker trend and larger MC fraction.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable secondmore » maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

Probing the solar corona with very long baseline interferometry.

PubMed

Soja, B; Heinkelmann, R; Schuh, H

2014-06-20

Understanding and monitoring the solar corona and solar wind is important for many applications like telecommunications or geomagnetic studies. Coronal electron density models have been derived by various techniques over the last 45 years, principally by analysing the effect of the corona on spacecraft tracking. Here we show that recent observational data from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), a radio technique crucial for astrophysics and geodesy, could be used to develop electron density models of the Sun's corona. The VLBI results agree well with previous models from spacecraft measurements. They also show that the simple spherical electron density model is violated by regional density variations and that on average the electron density in active regions is about three times that of low-density regions. Unlike spacecraft tracking, a VLBI campaign would be possible on a regular basis and would provide highly resolved spatial-temporal samplings over a complete solar cycle.

The Magnetic Evolution of Coronal Hole Bright Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Y.; Muglach, K.

2017-12-01

Space weather refers to the state of the heliosphere and the geospace environment that are caused primarily by solar activity. Coronal mass ejections and flares originate in active regions and filaments close to the solar surface and can cause geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particles events, which can damage both spacecraft and ground-based systems that are critical for society's well-being. Coronal bright points are small-scale magnetic regions on the sun that seem to be similar to active regions, but are about an order of magnitude smaller. Due to their shorter lifetime, the complete evolutionary cycle of these mini active regions can be studied, from the time they appear in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) images to the time they fade. We are using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to study both the coronal EUV flux and the photospheric magnetic field and compare them to activities of the coronal bright point.

Development of a solar-powered residential air conditioner: System optimization preliminary specification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseau, J.; Hwang, K. C.

1975-01-01

Investigations aimed at the optimization of a baseline Rankine cycle solar powered air conditioner and the development of a preliminary system specification were conducted. Efforts encompassed the following: (1) investigations of the use of recuperators/regenerators to enhance the performance of the baseline system, (2) development of an off-design computer program for system performance prediction, (3) optimization of the turbocompressor design to cover a broad range of conditions and permit operation at low heat source water temperatures, (4) generation of parametric data describing system performance (COP and capacity), (5) development and evaluation of candidate system augmentation concepts and selection of the optimum approach, (6) generation of auxiliary power requirement data, (7) development of a complete solar collector-thermal storage-air conditioner computer program, (8) evaluation of the baseline Rankine air conditioner over a five day period simulating the NASA solar house operation, and (9) evaluation of the air conditioner as a heat pump.

Development of heat-storage building materials for passive-solar applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, J. W.

A heat storage building material to be used for passive solar applications and general load leveling within building spaces was developed. Specifically, PCM-filled plastic panels are to be developed as wallboard and ceiling panels. Three PCMs (CaCl2, 6H2O; Na2SO4, 10H2O; LiNO3, 3H2O are to be evaluated for use in the double walled, hollow channeled plastic panels. Laboratory development of the panels will include determination of filling and sealing techniques, behavior of the PCMs, container properties and materials compatibility. Testing will include vapor transmission, thermal cycle, dynamic performance, accelerated life and durability tests. In addition to development and testing, an applications analysis will be performed for specific passive solar applications. Conceptual design of a single family passive solar residence will be prepared and performance evaluated. Screening of the three PCM candidates is essentially complete.

Trends and solar cycle effects in mesospheric ice clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Fiedler, Jens; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael

Lidar observations of mesospheric ice layers (noctilucent clouds, NLC) are now available since 12 years which allows to study solar cycle effects on NLC parameters such as altitudes, bright-ness, and occurrence rates. We present observations from our lidar stations in Kuehlungsborn (54N) and ALOMAR (69N). Different from general expectations the mean layer characteris-tics at ALOMAR do not show a persistent anti-correlation with solar cycle. Although a nice anti-correlation of Ly-alpha and occurrence rates is detected in the first half of the solar cycle, occurrence rates decreased with decreasing solar activity thereafter. Interestingly, in summer 2009 record high NLC parameters were detected as expected in solar minimum conditions. The morphology of NLC suggests that other processes except solar radiation may affect NLC. We have recently applied our LIMA model to study in detail the solar cycle effects on tempera-tures and water vapor concentration the middle atmosphere and its subsequent influence on mesospheric ice clouds. Furthermore, lower atmosphere effects are implicitly included because LIMA nudges to the conditions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. We compare LIMA results regarding solar cycle effects on temperatures and ice layers with observations at ALO-MAR as well as satellite borne measurements. We will also present LIMA results regarding the latitude variation of solar cycle and trends, including a comparison of northern and southern hemisphere. We have adapted the observation conditions from SBUV (wavelength and scatter-ing angle) in LIMA for a detailed comparison with long term observations of ice clouds from satellites.

Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, Ching-Cheh

2007-01-01

A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

Solar cycle modulation of Southern Annular Mode -Energy-momentum analysis-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Y.

2016-12-01

Climate is affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in late-winter/spring show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, SAM-related signal tends to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period in the High Solar (HS) years, whereas it is restricted in the troposphere and not persist in the Low Solar (LS) years. In the present study, we used 35-year record of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and performed wave-energy and momentum analysis on the solar-cycle modulation of the SAM to examine key factors to create such solar-SAM relationship. It is found that enhanced wave-mean flow interaction tends to take place in the middle stratosphere in association with enhanced energy input from diabatic heating on September only in HS years. The result suggests atmospheric and solar conditions on September are keys to create solar-SAM relationship.

Decoupling Solar Variability and Instrument Trends Using the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) Analysis Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Thomas N.; Eparvier, Francis G.; Harder, Jerald; Snow, Martin

2018-05-01

The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) dataset is a key record for studying and understanding the energetics and radiation balance in Earth's environment. Understanding the long-term variations of the SSI over timescales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for many Sun-Earth research topics. Satellite measurements of the SSI have been made since the 1970s, most of them in the ultraviolet, but recently also in the visible and near-infrared. A limiting factor for the accuracy of previous solar variability results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, which need fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. The primary objective of this investigation has been to separate out solar cycle variability and any residual uncorrected instrumental trends in the SSI measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission and the Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Ionosphere, Energetic, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. A new technique called the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) analysis has been developed, which examines an SSI time series at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in an SSI record, and the most common result is a downward trend that most likely stems from uncorrected instrument degradation. This technique has been applied to each wavelength in the SSI records from SORCE (2003 - present) and TIMED (2002 - present) to provide new solar cycle variability results between 27 nm and 1600 nm with a resolution of about 1 nm at most wavelengths. This technique, which was validated with the highly accurate total solar irradiance (TSI) record, has an estimated relative uncertainty of about 5% of the measured solar cycle variability. The MuSIL results are further validated with the comparison of the new solar cycle variability results from different solar cycles.

Mid-Term Quasi-Periodicities and Solar Cycle Variation of the White-Light Corona from 18.5 Years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of LASCO Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlyaeva, T.; Lamy, P.; Llebaria, A.

2015-07-01

We report on the analysis of the temporal evolution of the solar corona based on 18.5 years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of white-light observations with the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph. This evolution is quantified by generating spatially integrated values of the K-corona radiance, first globally, then in latitudinal sectors. The analysis considers time series of monthly values and 13-month running means of the radiance as well as several indices and proxies of solar activity. We study correlation, wavelet time-frequency spectra, and cross-coherence and phase spectra between these quantities. Our results give a detailed insight on how the corona responds to solar activity over timescales ranging from mid-term quasi-periodicities (also known as quasi-biennial oscillations or QBOs) to the long-term 11 year solar cycle. The amplitude of the variation between successive solar maxima and minima (modulation factor) very much depends upon the strength of the cycle and upon the heliographic latitude. An asymmetry is observed during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24, prominently in the royal and polar sectors, with north leading. Most prominent QBOs are a quasi-annual period during the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 23 and a shorter period, seven to eight months, in the ascending and maximum phases of Solar Cycle 24. They share the same properties as the solar QBOs: variable periodicity, intermittency, asymmetric development in the northern and southern solar hemispheres, and largest amplitudes during the maximum phase of solar cycles. The strongest correlation of the temporal variations of the coronal radiance - and consequently the coronal electron density - is found with the total magnetic flux. Considering that the morphology of the solar corona is also directly controlled by the topology of the magnetic field, this correlation reinforces the view that they are intimately connected, including their variability at all timescales.

Simulated Effect of Carbon Cycle Feedback on Climate Response to Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Jiang, Jiu

2017-12-01

Most modeling studies investigate climate effects of solar geoengineering under prescribed atmospheric CO2, thereby neglecting potential climate feedbacks from the carbon cycle. Here we use an Earth system model to investigate interactive feedbacks between solar geoengineering, global carbon cycle, and climate change. We design idealized sunshade geoengineering simulations to prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C above preindustrial under a CO2 emission scenario with emission mitigation starting from middle of century. By year 2100, solar geoengineering reduces the burden of atmospheric CO2 by 47 PgC with enhanced carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere. As a result of reduced atmospheric CO2, consideration of the carbon cycle feedback reduces required insolation reduction in 2100 from 2.0 to 1.7 W m-2. With higher climate sensitivity the effect from carbon cycle feedback becomes more important. Our study demonstrates the importance of carbon cycle feedback in climate response to solar geoengineering.

Invited Talks at Naples and Coimbra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, Stuart

2003-01-01

Prior to observations of the solar irradiance from space that began in 1979 there was no hope of obtaining even rough estimates of the solar irradiance variation over a solar cycle, since the space observations made since showed that the magnitude of the variation over a cycle to date is less than 0.1 %, a value too small to measure from the ground. At the same time, it would be useful to know the cycle-dependent variation over more than just the two recent cycles. Lacking a complete theory for the solar dynamo responsible for this variation, the current hope is to determine what proxy might yield the best values. Because there is an excellent database on sunspot umbral and penumbral areas from the Greenwich Observatory for the years 1874-1976 (but not beyond), the possibility exists that these data could be used. This talk will summarize results of a joint study in which satellite measurements of the solar irradiance variation are compared with ground-based measurements from the Coimbra Observatory of sunspot number, umbral area, and total sunspot area to determine which would serve as the best proxy for using the Greenwich observations back to 1874. From the near constancy of sunspot umbral magnetic fields upon which the useful parameter photometric sunspot index is based, we expected that umbral area would yield the beat proxy. To our surprise, after performing a statistical study of the observations over the period 1980-1990, preliminary indications are that sunspot number (a parameter available back into the 18th century) may be just as useful as the umbral area. As expected, both are quite superior as proxies to total sunspot area, which includes the penumbral area. This conclusion is consistent with earlier work of Hop and Schatten, who sought a proxy by studies of the umbral-penumbral area ratio. A second motivation for pursuing this work is the possibility that relatively small variations in the solar irradiance may induce larger responses in Earth's climate than would occur from simply introducing the corresponding heat differential into the terrestrial atmosphere. The talk will conclude with a description of why some climatologists are beginning to explore this possibility, which is suggest by some of the space observations used in the above search for a solar irradiance variation proxy.

Temperature-Responsive Luminescent Solar Concentrators: Tuning Energy Transfer in a Liquid Crystalline Matrix.

PubMed

Sol, Jeroen A H P; Dehm, Volker; Hecht, Reinhard; Würthner, Frank; Schenning, Albertus P H J; Debije, Michael G

2018-01-22

Temperature-responsive luminescent solar concentrators (LSCs) have been fabricated in which the Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) between a donor-acceptor pair in a liquid crystalline solvent can be tuned. At room temperatures, the perylene bisimide (PBI) acceptor is aggregated and FRET is inactive; while after heating to a temperature above the isotropic phase of the liquid crystal solvent, the acceptor PBI completely dissolves and FRET is activated. This unusual temperature control over FRET was used to design a color-tunable LSC. The device has been shown to be highly stable towards consecutive heating and cooling cycles, making it an appealing device for harvesting otherwise unused solar energy. © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, Maria

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databasesmore » covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.« less

Stochastic Fluctuations in a Babcock-Leighton Model of the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonneau, Paul; Dikpati, Mausumi

2000-11-01

We investigate the effect of stochastic fluctuations on a flux transport model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. Specifically, we make use of our recent flux transport model (Dikpati & Charbonneau) to investigate the consequences of introducing large-amplitude stochastic fluctuations in either or both the meridional flow and poloidal source term in the model. Solar cycle-like oscillatory behavior persists even for fluctuation amplitudes as high as 300%, thus demonstrating the inherent robustness of this class of solar cycle models. We also find that high-amplitude fluctuations lead to a spread of cycle amplitude and duration showing a statistically significant anticorrelation, comparable to that observed in sunspot data. This is a feature of the solar cycle that is notoriously difficult to reproduce with dynamo models based on mean field electrodynamics and relying only on nonlinearities associated with the back-reaction of the Lorentz force to produce amplitude modulation. Another noteworthy aspect of our flux transport model is the fact that meridional circulation in the convective envelope acts as a ``clock'' regulating the tempo of the solar cycle; shorter-than-average cycles are typically soon followed by longer-than-average cycles. In other words, the oscillation exhibits good phase locking, a property that also characterizes the solar activity cycle. This shows up quite clearly in our model, but we argue that it is in fact a generic property of flux transport models based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, and relies on meridional circulation as the primary magnetic field transport agent.

Solar spectral irradiance variability in cycle 24: observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchenko, Sergey V.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Lean, Judith L.

2016-12-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265 and 500 nm during the ongoing cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations, and predictions of the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI2) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models.

Phase space representation of neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field in relation to solar activity in cycles 21 and 22.

PubMed

Silva, H G; Lopes, I

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays links solar cycle activity with neutron monitor count rate on earth. A less direct relation holds between neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field because different atmospheric processes, including fluctuations in the ionosphere, are involved. Although a full quantitative model is still lacking, this link is supported by solid statistical evidence. Thus, a connection between the solar cycle activity and atmospheric electric field is expected. To gain a deeper insight into these relations, sunspot area (NOAA, USA), neutron monitor count rate (Climax, Colorado, USA), and atmospheric electric field (Lisbon, Portugal) are presented here in a phase space representation. The period considered covers two solar cycles (21, 22) and extends from 1978 to 1990. Two solar maxima were observed in this dataset, one in 1979 and another in 1989, as well as one solar minimum in 1986. Two main observations of the present study were: (1) similar short-term topological features of the phase space representations of the three variables, (2) a long-term phase space radius synchronization between the solar cycle activity, neutron monitor count rate, and potential gradient (confirmed by absolute correlation values above ~0.8). Finally, the methodology proposed here can be used for obtaining the relations between other atmospheric parameters (e.g., solar radiation) and solar cycle activity.

HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES IN THE POLAR SOLAR WIND OBSERVED BY ULYSSES NEAR THE MINIMA OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 AND 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.

2013-05-10

We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably {approx}15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF betweenmore » {approx}36 Degree-Sign S-60 Degree-Sign S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.« less

Concept definition study of small Brayton cycle engines for dispersed solar electric power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Six, L. D.; Ashe, T. L.; Dobler, F. X.; Elkins, R. T.

1980-01-01

Three first-generation Brayton cycle engine types were studied for solar application: a near-term open cycle (configuration A), a near-term closed cycle (configuration B), and a longer-term open cycle (configuration C). A parametric performance analysis was carried out to select engine designs for the three configurations. The interface requirements for the Brayton cycle engine/generator and solar receivers were determined. A technology assessment was then carried out to define production costs, durability, and growth potential for the selected engine types.

The effects of solarization on the performance of a gas turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homann, Christiaan; van der Spuy, Johan; von Backström, Theodor

2016-05-01

Various hybrid solar gas turbine configurations exist. The Stellenbosch University Solar Power Thermodynamic (SUNSPOT) cycle consists of a heliostat field, solar receiver, primary Brayton gas turbine cycle, thermal storage and secondary Rankine steam cycle. This study investigates the effect of the solarization of a gas turbine on its performance and details the integration of a gas turbine into a solar power plant. A Rover 1S60 gas turbine was modelled in Flownex, a thermal-fluid system simulation and design code, and validated against a one-dimensional thermodynamic model at design input conditions. The performance map of a newly designed centrifugal compressor was created and implemented in Flownex. The effect of the improved compressor on the performance of the gas turbine was evident. The gas turbine cycle was expanded to incorporate different components of a CSP plant, such as a solar receiver and heliostat field. The solarized gas turbine model simulates the gas turbine performance when subjected to a typical variation in solar resource. Site conditions at the Helio100 solar field were investigated and the possibility of integrating a gas turbine within this system evaluated. Heat addition due to solar irradiation resulted in a decreased fuel consumption rate. The influence of the additional pressure drop over the solar receiver was evident as it leads to decreased net power output. The new compressor increased the overall performance of the gas turbine and compensated for pressure losses incurred by the addition of solar components. The simulated integration of the solarized gas turbine at Helio100 showed potential, although the solar irradiation is too little to run the gas turbine on solar heat alone. The simulation evaluates the feasibility of solarizing a gas turbine and predicts plant performance for such a turbine cycle.

Terminator 2020: Get Ready for the "Event" of The Next Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntosh, S. W.; Leamon, R. J.; Fan, Y.; Rempel, M.; Dikpati, M.

2017-12-01

The abrupt end of solar activity cycles 22 and 23 at the Sun's equator are observed with instruments from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). These events are remarkable in that they rapidly trigger the onset of magnetic activity belonging to the next solar cycle at mid-latitudes. The triggered onset of new cycle flux emergence leads to blossoming of the new cycle shortly thereafter. Using small-scale tracers of magnetic solar activity we examine the timing of the cycle ``termination points'' in relation to the excitation of new activity and find that the time taken for the solar plasma to communicate this transition is less than one solar rotation, and possibly as little as a eight days. This very short transition time implies that the mean magnetic field present in the Sun's convection zone is approximately 80 kG. This value may be considerably larger than conventional explorations estimate and therefore, have a significant dynamical impact on the physical appearance of solar activity, and considerably impacting our ability to perform first-principles numerical simulations of the same. Should solar cycle 24 [and 25] continue in their progression we anticipate that a termination event of this type should occur in the 2020 timeframe. PSP will have a front row seat to observe this systemic flip in solar magnetism and the induced changes in our star's radiative and partiuculate output. Such observations may prove to be critical in assessing the Sun's ability to force short term evolution in the Earth's atmosphere.

Solar cycle variations in mesospheric carbon monoxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Fontenla, Juan

2018-05-01

As an extension of Lee et al. (2013), solar cycle variation of carbon monoxide (CO) is analyzed with MLS observation, which covers more than thirteen years (2004-2017) including maximum of solar cycle 24. Being produced primarily by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, the variations of the mesospheric CO concentration are largely driven by the solar cycle modulated ultraviolet (UV) variation. This solar signal extends down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex, showing a time lag that is consistent with the average descent velocity. To characterize a global distribution of the solar impact, MLS CO is correlated with the SORCE measured total solar irradiance (TSI) and UV. As high as 0.8 in most of the polar mesosphere, the linear correlation coefficients between CO and UV/TSI are more robust than those found in the previous work. The photochemical contribution explains most (68%) of the total variance of CO while the dynamical contribution accounts for 21% of the total variance at upper mesosphere. The photochemistry driven CO anomaly signal is extended in the tropics by vertical mixing. The solar cycle signal in CO is further examined with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) 3.5 simulation by implementing two different modeled Spectral Solar Irradiances (SSIs): SRPM 2012 and NRLSSI. The model simulations underestimate the mean CO amount and solar cycle variations of CO, by a factor of 3, compared to those obtained from MLS observation. Different inputs of the solar spectrum have small impacts on CO variation.

Lagged correlations between the NAO and the 11-year solar cycle: forced response or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehrlein, J.; Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.; Smith, A. K.

2017-12-01

Recently, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been suggested to respond to the 11-year solar cycle with a lag of a few years. The solar/NAO relationship provides a potential pathway for solar activity to modulate surface climate. However, a short observational record paired with the strong internal variability of the NAO raises questions about the robustness of the claimed solar/NAO relationship. For the first time, we investigate the robustness of the solar/NAO signal in four different reanalysis data sets and long integrations from an ocean-coupled chemistry-climate model forced with the 11-year solar cycle. The signal appears to be robust in the different reanalysis datasets. We also show, for the first time, that many features of the observed signal, such as amplitude, spatial pattern, and lag of 2/3 years, can be accurately reproduced in our model simulations. However, in both the reanalysis and model simulations, we find that this signal is non-stationary. A lagged NAO/solar signal can also be reproduced in two sets of model integrations without the 11-year solar cycle. This suggests that the correlation found in observational data could be the result of internal decadal variability in the NAO and not a response to the solar cycle. This has wide implications towards the interpretation of solar signals in observational data.

How unprecedented a solar minimum was it?

PubMed

Russell, C T; Jian, L K; Luhmann, J G

2013-05-01

The end of the last solar cycle was at least 3 years late, and to date, the new solar cycle has seen mainly weaker activity since the onset of the rising phase toward the new solar maximum. The newspapers now even report when auroras are seen in Norway. This paper is an update of our review paper written during the deepest part of the last solar minimum [1]. We update the records of solar activity and its consequent effects on the interplanetary fields and solar wind density. The arrival of solar minimum allows us to use two techniques that predict sunspot maximum from readings obtained at solar minimum. It is clear that the Sun is still behaving strangely compared to the last few solar minima even though we are well beyond the minimum phase of the cycle 23-24 transition.

Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K.

2007-01-01

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Solar luminosity variations in solar cycle 21

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willson, Richard C.; Hudson, H. S.

1988-01-01

Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.

Performance comparison of different thermodynamic cycles for an innovative central receiver solar power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes-Belmonte, Miguel A.; Sebastián, Andrés; González-Aguilar, José; Romero, Manuel

2017-06-01

The potential of using different thermodynamic cycles coupled to a solar tower central receiver that uses a novel heat transfer fluid is analyzed. The new fluid, named as DPS, is a dense suspension of solid particles aerated through a tubular receiver used to convert concentrated solar energy into thermal power. This novel fluid allows reaching high temperatures at the solar receiver what opens a wide range of possibilities for power cycle selection. This work has been focused into the assessment of power plant performance using conventional, but optimized cycles but also novel thermodynamic concepts. Cases studied are ranging from subcritical steam Rankine cycle; open regenerative Brayton air configurations at medium and high temperature; combined cycle; closed regenerative Brayton helium scheme and closed recompression supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle. Power cycle diagrams and working conditions for design point are compared amongst the studied cases for a common reference thermal power of 57 MWth reaching the central cavity receiver. It has been found that Brayton air cycle working at high temperature or using supercritical carbon dioxide are the most promising solutions in terms of efficiency conversion for the power block of future generation by means of concentrated solar power plants.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C., E-mail: xiejinglan@ynao.ac.cn

Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle lengthmore » for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.« less

Structure of the photospheric magnetic field during sector crossings of the heliospheric magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-04-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during solar cycles 21-24, separately for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at the Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976-2014. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings, and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle and with solar cycle phase. We find evidence for Hale boundaries in many, but not all ascending, maximum and declining phases of solar cycles but no minimum phase. The most clear Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd cycles 21 and 23, but less systematically during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even cycles 22 and 24. We also find that the Hale structure of cycles 23 and 24 is more systematic than during cycles 21 and 22. This may be due to the weakening activity, which reduces the complexity of the photospheric field and clarifies the Hale pattern. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon. The HMF sector crossings observed at 1AU have only a partial correspondence to Hale boundaries in the photosphere, indicating that the two HMF sectors often originate from the opposite hemispheres across the equator. Our results also give evidence for hemispheric and polarity related differences in the photospheric field between the odd and even solar cycles.

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitiashvili, Irina N., E-mail: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relativelymore » new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.« less

Advanced power cycles and configurations for solar towers: Modeling and optimization of the decoupled solar combined cycle concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Barberena, Javier; Olcoz, Asier; Sorbet, Fco. Javier

2017-06-01

CSP technologies are essential to allow large shares of renewables into the grid due to their unique ability to cope with the large variability of the energy resource by means of technically and economically feasible thermal energy storage (TES) systems. However, there is still the need and sought to achieve technological breakthroughs towards cost reductions and increased efficiencies. For this, research on advanced power cycles, like the Decoupled Solar Combined Cycle (DSCC) is, are regarded as a key objective. The DSCC concept is, basically, a Combined Brayton-Rankine cycle in which the bottoming cycle is decoupled from the operation of the topping cycle by means of an intermediate storage system. According to this concept, one or several solar towers driving a solar air receiver and a Gas Turbine (Brayton cycle) feed through their exhaust gasses a single storage system and bottoming cycle. This general concept benefits from a large flexibility in its design. On the one hand, different possible schemes related to number and configuration of solar towers, storage systems media and configuration, bottoming cycles, etc. are possible. On the other, within a specific scheme a large number of design parameters can be optimized, including the solar field size, the operating temperatures and pressures of the receiver, the power of the Brayton and Rankine cycles, the storage capacity and others. Heretofore, DSCC plants have been analyzed by means of simple steady-state models with pre-stablished operating parameters in the power cycles. In this work, a detailed transient simulation model for DSCC plants has been developed and is used to analyze different DSCC plant schemes. For each of the analyzed plant schemes, a sensitivity analysis and selection of the main design parameters is carried out. Results show that an increase in annual solar to electric efficiency of 30% (from 12.91 to 16.78) can be achieved by using two bottoming Rankine cycles at two different temperatures, enabling low temperature heat recovery from the receiver and Gas Turbine exhaust gasses.

Changes in photochemically significant solar UV spectral irradiance as estimated by the composite Mg II index and scale factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1994-01-01

Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors.

Forecast for solar cycle 23 activity: a progress report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahluwalia, H. S.

2001-08-01

At the 25th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC) at Durban, South Africa, I announced the discovery of a three cycle quasi-periodicity in the ion chamber data string assembled by me, for the 1937 to 1994 period (Conf. Pap., v. 2, p. 109, 1997). It corresponded in time with a similar quasi-periodicity observed in the dataset for the planetary index Ap. At the 26th ICRC at Salt Lake City, UT, I reported on our analysis of the Ap data to forecast the amplitude of solar cycle 23 activity (Conf. Pap., v. 2, pl. 260, 1999). I predicted that cycle 23 will be moderate (a la cycle 17), notwithstanding the early exuberant forecasts of some solar astronomers that cycle 23, "may be one of the greatest cycles in recent times, if not the greatest." Sunspot number data up to April 2001 indicate that our forecast appears to be right on the mark. We review the solar, interplanetary and geophysical data and describe the important lessons learned from this experience. 1. Introduction Ohl (1971) was the first to realize that Sun may be sending us a subliminal message as to its intent for its activity (Sunspot Numbers, SSN) in the next cycle. He posited that the message was embedded in the geomagnetic activity (given by sum Kp). Schatten at al (1978) suggested that Ohl hypothesis could be understood on the basis of the model proposed by Babcock (1961) who suggested that the high latitude solar poloidal fields, near a minimum, emerge as the toroidal fields on opposite sides of the solar equator. This is known as the Solar Dynamo Model. One can speculate that the precursor poloidal solar field is entrained in the high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) from the coronal holes which are observed at Earth's orbit during the descending phase of the previous cycle. The interaction

The temperature of quiescent streamers during solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landi, E.; Testa, P.

2014-05-20

Recent in-situ determinations of the temporal evolution of the charge state distribution in the fast and slow solar wind have shown a general decrease in the degree of ionization of all the elements in the solar wind along solar cycles 23 and 24. Such a decrease has been interpreted as a cooling of the solar corona which occurred during the decline and minimum phase of solar cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010. In the present work, we investigate whether spectroscopic determinations of the temperature of the quiescent streamers show signatures of coronal plasma cooling during cycles 23 and 24. Wemore » measure the coronal electron density and thermal structure at the base of 60 quiescent streamers observed from 1996 to 2013 by SOHO/SUMER and Hinode/EIS and find that both quantities do now show any significant dependence on the solar cycle. We argue that if the slow solar wind is accelerated from the solar photosphere or chromosphere, the measured decrease in the in-situ wind charge state distribution might be due to an increased efficiency in the wind acceleration mechanism at low altitudes. If the slow wind originates from the corona, a combination of density and wind acceleration changes may be responsible for the in-situ results.« less

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Model Predictions and OMI Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, S.; DeLand, M.; Lean, J.

2016-01-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nanometers during the ongoing Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2) and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) instruments and find fair-to-excellent agreement between the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance - post SORCE) and SATIRE-S (the Naval Research Laboratory's Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era) models.

The 11 Year Solar Cycle Response of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Observed by GPS Radio Occultation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, King-Fai; Lin, Li-Ching; Bui, Xuan-Hien; Liang, Mao-Chang

2018-01-01

We have retrieved the latitudinal and vertical structures of the 11 year solar cycle modulation on ionospheric electron density using 14 years of satellite-based radio occultation measurements utilizing the Global Positioning System. The densities at the crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the subtropics near 300 km in 2003 and 2014 (high solar activity with solar 10.7 cm flux, F10.7 ≈ 140 solar flux unit (sfu)) were 3 times higher than that in 2009 (low solar activity F10.7 ≈ 70 sfu). The higher density is attributed to the elevated solar extreme ultraviolet and geomagnetic activity during high solar activity periods. The location of the EIA crests moved 50 km upward and 10° poleward, because of the enhanced E × B force. The EIA in the northern hemisphere was more pronounced than that in the southern hemisphere. This interhemispheric asymmetry is consistent with the effect of enhanced transequatorial neutral wind. The above observations were reproduced qualitatively by the two benchmark runs of the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. In addition, we have studied the impact of the 11 year solar cycle on the 27 day solar cycle response of the ionospheric electron density. Beside the expected modulation on the amplitude of the 27 day solar variation due to the 11 year solar cycle, we find that the altitude of the maximal 27 day solar response is unexpectedly 50 km higher than that of the 11 year solar response. This is the first time that a vertical dependence of the solar responses on different time scales is reported.

Helioseismic Observations of Two Solar Cycles and Constraints on Dynamo Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, Alexander

2018-01-01

Helioseismology data from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017 for almost two solar cycles, provide a unique opportunity to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and link these variations to the current dynamo models and simulations. The solar oscillation frequencies and frequency splitting of medium-degree p- and f-modes, as well as helioseismic inversions have been used to analyze variations of the differential rotation (“torsional oscillations”) and the global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the synoptic surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and evolution of the solar cycles, 23 and 24. The observational results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the dynamics of the tachocline and near-surface shear layer, and also may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles and detect the onset of the next cycle.

Prediction of the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays and radiation dose of aircrews up to the solar cycle 26

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, S.; Kataoka, R.; Sato, T.

2016-12-01

The solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), which is the variation of the terrestrial GCR flux caused by the heliospheric environmental change, is basically anti-correlated with the solar activity with so-called 11-year periodicity. In the current weak solar cycle 24, we expect that the flux of GCRs is getting higher than that in the previous solar cycles, leading to the increase in the radiation exposure in the space and atmosphere. In order to quantitatively evaluate the possible solar modulation of GCRs and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, we have developed the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the solar modulation of GCRs. Our model can give the flux of GCRs anywhere in the heliosphere by assuming the variation of the solar wind velocity, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, and its tilt angle. We solve the curvature and gradient drift motion of GCRs in the heliospheric magnetic field, and therefore reproduce the 22-year variation of the solar modulation of GCRs. It is quantitatively confirmed that our model reproduces the energy spectra observed by BESS and PAMELA. We then calculate the variation of the GCR energy spectra during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, by extrapolating the solar wind parameters and tilt angle. We also calculate the neutron monitor counting rate and the radiation dose of aircrews at flight altitude, by the air-shower simulation performed by PHITS (Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System). In this presentation, we report the quantitative forecast values of the solar modulation of GCRs, neutron monitor counting rate, and the radiation dose at flight altitude up to the cycle 26, including the discussion of the charge sign dependence on those results.

Helioseismic inferences of the solar cycles 23 and 24: GOLF and VIRGO observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Jiménez, A.

2014-12-01

The Sun-as-a star helioseismic spectrophotometer GOLF and photometer VIRGO instruments onboard the SoHO spacecraft are collecting high-quality, continuous data since April 1996. We analyze here these unique datasets in order to investigate the peculiar and weak on-going solar cycle 24. As this cycle 24 is reaching its maximum, we compare its rising phase with the rising phase of the previous solar cycle 23.

Simulating the Outer Radiation Belt During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Zheng, Qiuhua; Chen, Sheng-Hsien; Kanekal, Shri; Nagai, Tsungunobu; Albert, Jay

2011-01-01

After prolonged period of solar minimum, there has been an increase in solar activity and its terrestrial consequences. We are in the midst of the rising phase of solar cycle 24, which began in January 2008. During the initial portion of the cycle, moderate geomagnetic storms occurred follow the 27 day solar rotation. Most of the storms were accompanied by increases in electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt. These enhancements were often preceded with rapid dropout at high L shells. We seek to understand the similarities and differences in radiation belt behavior during the active times observed during the of this solar cycle. This study includes extensive data and simulations our Radiation Belt Environment Model. We identify the processes, transport and wave-particle interactions, that are responsible for the flux dropout and the enhancement and recovery.

Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E.

1978-01-01

The comparatively well-ordered magnetic structure in the solar corona during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 revealed a characteristic dependence of solar energetic particle injection upon heliographic longitude. When analyzed using solar wind mapping of the large scale interplanetary magnetic field line connection from the corona to the Earth, particle fluxes display an approximately exponential dependence on heliographic longitude. Since variations in the solar wind velocity (and hence the coronal connection longitude) can severely distort the simple coronal injection profile, the use of real-time solar wind velocity measurements can be of great aid in predicting the decay of solar particle events. Although such exponential injection profiles are commonplace during 1973-1975, they have also been identified earlier in Solar Cycle 20, and hence this structure may be present during the rise and maximum of the cycle, but somewhat obscured by greater temporal variations in particle injection.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldwin, Mark P.; Dunkerton, Timothy J.

1989-01-01

The 10.7-cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with North Pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). Calculations show that temperatures over most of the Northern Hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with North Pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar-cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle.

Observations of Solar Spectral Irradiance Change During Cycle 22 from NOAA-9 SBUV/2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

2003-01-01

The NOM-9 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet, model 2 (SBUV/2) instrument is one of a series of instruments providing daily solar spectral irradiance measurements in the middle and near ultraviolet since 1978. The SBUV/2 instruments are primarily designed to measure stratospheric profile and total column ozone, using the directional albedo as the input to the ozone processing algorithm. As a result, the SBUV/2 instrument does not have onboard monitoring of all time-dependent response changes. We have applied internal comparisons and vicarious (external) comparisons to determine the long-term instrument characterization for NOAA-9 SBUV/2 to derive accurate solar spectral irradiances from March 1985 to May 1997 spanning two solar cycle minima with a single instrument. The NOAA-9 data show an amplitude of 9.3(+/- 2.3)% (81-day averaged) at 200-205 nm for solar cycle 22. This is consistent with the result of (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 8.3(+/- 2.6)% for cycle 21 from Nimbus-7 SBUV and (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 10(+/- 2)% (daily values) for cycle 23 from UARS SUSIM. NOAA-9 data at 245-250 nm show a solar cycle amplitude of (Delta)F(sub 245-250) = 5.7(+/- 1.8)%. NOAA-9 SBUV/2 data can be combined with other instruments to create a 25-year record of solar UV irradiance.

Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, Mustapha

2015-08-01

One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity.

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyatskaya, S.; Hathaway, D.; Winebarger, A.

2007-01-01

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

A seven-month solar cycle observed with the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Wolff, C. L.

1989-01-01

Data collected by the Langmuir probe aboard the Pioneer Venus orbiter (PVO) over the years 1979 though 1987 were normalized to remove the long-period 11-year solar maximum to minimum trend and were analyzed for periodicity. Results yield evidence for the existence of an approximately 7-month solar cycle, which was also observed from SME Lyman alpha and 2800-MHz radio flux measurements carried out from an earth-based platform. This coincidence suggests that the cycle is an intrinsic periodicity in the solar output. The cycle has a frequency independent of the orbital frequency of the PVO and is distinct from a 'rotating beacon' cycle whose period depends on the orbital motion of the PVO about the sun. The second most dominant cycle discovered was a 5-month period. Results of an oscillation model of solar periodicity indicate that the 7-month and 5-month cycles are caused by long-lived flux enhancements from nonlinear interactions of global oscillation modes in the sun's convective envelope (r modes) and radiative interior (g modes).

QBO of temperature in mesopause and lower thermosphere caused by solar activity variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shefov, N. N.; Semenov, A. I.

2003-04-01

On the basis of the data of the emission (hydroxyl, sodium and atomic oxygen 557.7 nm) and radiophysical (87-107 km) measurements some regularities of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the atmospheric temperature at heights of the mesopause and lower thermosphere are investigated. It is shown, that they are closely connected with quasi-biennial variations of solar activity and form within the limits of a cycle of solar activity the fading wave train of oscillations. Such behaviour of the wave train can be adequately described by the Airy function. As a result of the analysis of characteristics of QBO of solar activity during 17-23rd cycles it is shown, that to each 11-years cycle correspond its wave train of QBO. Amplitudes and periods of this wave train decrease during a cycle, i.e. it represents Not harmonious oscillation but it is a cyclic aperiodic oscillation (CAO). Therefore usual methods of Fourier analysis used earlier did not result in the same values of the period. The wave train of the current cycle begins at the end of previous and some time together with the subsequent cycle proceeds. Thus, the time sequence of activity during solar cycle represents superposition of three wave trains. Period of CAO in the beginning of a cycle has ~ 38 months and decreases to the end of a cycle up to ~ 21 months. The first wide negative minimum of Airy function describing of the wave train of CAO corresponds to solar activity minimum in the 11-year cycle. The time scale of the wave train varies from one cycle to another. Full duration of individual wave train is ~ 22 years. Owing to a mutual interference of the consecutive wave trains in the 11-year cycles the observable variations of solar activity are not identical. Structure of CAO obviously displays magnetohydrodynamic processes inside the Sun. This work was supported by the Grant No. 2274 of ISTC.

Modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar combined cycle (HYCS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eter, Ahmad Adel

2011-12-01

The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) technology with the conventional combined cycle technology for electric generation in Saudi Arabia. The generated electricity can be used locally to meet the annual increasing demand. Specifically, it can be utilized to meet the demand during the hours 10 am-3 pm and prevent blackout hours, of some industrial sectors. The proposed CSP design gives flexibility in the operation system. Since, it works as a conventional combined cycle during night time and it switches to work as a hybrid solar combined cycle during day time. The first objective of the thesis is to develop a thermo-economical mathematical model that can simulate the performance of a hybrid solar-fossil fuel combined cycle. The second objective is to develop a computer simulation code that can solve the thermo-economical mathematical model using available software such as E.E.S. The developed simulation code is used to analyze the thermo-economic performance of different configurations of integrating the CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle to achieve the optimal integration configuration. This optimal integration configuration has been investigated further to achieve the optimal design of the solar field that gives the optimal solar share. Thermo-economical performance metrics which are available in the literature have been used in the present work to assess the thermo-economic performance of the investigated configurations. The economical and environmental impact of integration CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle are estimated and discussed. Finally, the optimal integration configuration is found to be solarization steam side in conventional combined cycle with solar multiple 0.38 which needs 29 hectare and LEC of HYCS is 63.17 $/MWh under Dhahran weather conditions.

On the Influence of the Solar Bi-Cycle on Comic Ray Modulatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifter, N. Part Xxvii: A. Defect Of The Solar Dynamo. B.; Scissors, K.; Sprucener, H.

In this presentation we propose a new paradigm that explains the different lengths of individual solar Hale cycles. It proves beneficial to distinguish between a so-called inHale and ex-Hale cycle, which together form the solar bi-cycle. We carefully analyzed the influence of so-called complex mode excitations (CMEs) on comic ray modulation, in particular on the drifts of the comic isotope O+3 , which we found to induce characteristic anisotropies. This comic isotope anisotropy (CIA) is caused by the wellknown north-south asymmetry (NSA) and can be observed as a rare Forbush increase (FBI). The latter is linked to the solar magnetic field which appears to have a chaotic behaviour (for details see part I-XXVI). Especially during an ex-Hale cycle magnetic flux is pseudo-pneumatically escaping through a coronal hole. Consequently, the solar dynamo can no longer operate efficiently, i.e. is defect.

The effect of the solar field reversal on the modulation of galactic cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, B. T.; Goldstein, B. E.

1983-01-01

There is now a growing awareness that solar cycle related changes in the large-scale structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) may play an important role in the modulation of galactic cosmic rays. To date, attention focussed on two aspects of the magnetic field structure: large scale compression regions produced by fast solar wind streams and solar flares, both of which are known to vary in intensity and number over the solar cycle, and the variable warp of the heliospheric current sheet. It is suggested that another feature of the solar cycle is worthy of consideration: the field reversal itself. If the Sun reverses its polarity by simply overturning the heliospheric current sheet (northern fields migrating southward and vice-versa) then there may well be an effect on cosmic ray intensity. However, such a simple picture of solar reversal seems improbable. Observations of the solar corona suggest the existence of not one but several current sheets in the heliosphere at solar maximum. The results of a simple calculation to demonstrate that the variation in cosmic ray intensities that will result can be as large as is actually observed over the solar cycle are given.

Solar rotational modulations of spectral irradiance and correlations with the variability of total solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-09-01

Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength.

Solar Rotational Modulations of Spectral Irradiance and Correlations with the Variability of Total Solar Irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-01-01

Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength.

Changes of Linearity in MF2 Index with R12 and Solar Activity Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, L.

2013-05-01

Critical frequency of F2 layer is related to the solar activity, and the sunspot number has been the standard index for ionospheric prediction programs. This layer, being considered the most important in HF radio communications due to its highest electron density, determines the maximum frequency coming back from ground base transmitter signals, and shows irregular variation in time and space. Nowadays the spatial variation, better understood due to the availability of TEC measurements, let Space Weather Centers have observations almost in real time. However, it is still the most difficult layer to predict in time. Short time variations are improved in IRI model, but long term predictions are only related to the well-known CCIR and URSI coefficients and Solar activity R12 predictions, (or ionospheric indexes in regional models). The concept of the "saturation" of the ionosphere is based on data observations around 3 solar cycles before 1970, (NBS, 1968). There is a linear relationship among MUF (0Km) and R12, for smooth Sunspot numbers R12 less than 100, but constant for higher R12, so, no rise of MUF is expected for R12 higher than 100. This recommendation has been used in most of the known Ionospheric prediction programs for HF Radio communication. In this work, observations of smoothed ionospheric index MF2 related to R12 are presented to find common features of the linear relationship, which is found to persist in different ranges of R12 depending on the specific maximum level of each solar cycle. In the analysis of individual solar cycles, the lapse of linearity is less than 100 for a low solar cycle and higher than 100 for a high solar cycle. To improve ionospheric predictions we can establish levels for solar cycle maximum sunspot numbers R12 around low 100, medium 150 and high 200 and specify the ranges of linearity of MUF(0Km) related to R12 which is not only 100 as assumed for all the solar cycles. For lower levels of solar cycle, discussions of present observations are presented.

Experimental study of refrigeration performance based on linear Fresnel solar thermal photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jinghui; Yuan, Hui; Xia, Yunfeng; Kan, Weimin; Deng, Xiaowen; Liu, Shi; Liang, Wanlong; Deng, Jianhua

2018-03-01

This paper introduces the working principle and system constitution of the linear Fresnel solar lithium bromide absorption refrigeration cycle, and elaborates several typical structures of absorption refrigeration cycle, including single-effect, two-stage cycle and double-effect lithium bromide absorption refrigeration cycle A 1.n effect absorption chiller system based on the best parameters was introduced and applied to a linear Fresnel solar absorption chiller system. Through the field refrigerator performance test, the results show: Based on this heat cycle design and processing 1.n lithium bromide absorption refrigeration power up to 35.2KW, It can meet the theoretical expectations and has good flexibility and reliability, provides guidance for the use of solar thermal energy.

Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

DOEpatents

Bharathan, Desikan; Bohn, Mark S.; Williams, Thomas A.

1995-01-01

A hybrid combined cycle power plant including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production.

Thermodynamic and design considerations of organic Rankine cycles in combined application with a solar thermal gas turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, R.; Kusterer, K.; Sugimoto, T.; Tanimura, K.; Bohn, D.

2013-12-01

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies are considered to provide a significant contribution for the electric power production in the future. Different kinds of technologies are presently in operation or under development, e.g. parabolic troughs, central receivers, solar dish systems and Fresnel reflectors. This paper takes the focus on central receiver technologies, where the solar radiation is concentrated by a field of heliostats in a receiver on the top of a tall tower. To get this CSP technology ready for the future, the system costs have to reduce significantly. The main cost driver in such kind of CSP technologies are the huge amount of heliostats. To reduce the amount of heliostats, and so the investment costs, the efficiency of the energy conversion cycle becomes an important issue. An increase in the cycle efficiency results in a decrease of the solar heliostat field and thus, in a significant cost reduction. The paper presents the results of a thermodynamic model of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) for combined cycle application together with a solar thermal gas turbine. The gas turbine cycle is modeled with an additional intercooler and recuperator and is based on a typical industrial gas turbine in the 2 MW class. The gas turbine has a two stage radial compressor and a three stage axial turbine. The compressed air is preheated within a solar receiver to 950°C before entering the combustor. A hybrid operation of the gas turbine is considered. In order to achieve a further increase of the overall efficiency, the combined operation of the gas turbine and an Organic Rankine Cycle is considered. Therefore an ORC has been set up, which is thermally connected to the gas turbine cycle at two positions. The ORC can be coupled to the solar-thermal gas turbine cycle at the intercooler and after the recuperator. Thus, waste heat from different cycle positions can be transferred to the ORC for additional production of electricity. Within this investigation different working fluids and ORC conditions have been analyzed in order to evaluate the best configuration. The investigations have been performed by application of improved thermodynamic and process analysis tools, which consider the real gas behavior of the analyzed fluids. The results show that by combined operation of the solar thermal gas turbine and the ORC, the combined cycle efficiency is approximately 4%-points higher than in the solar-thermal gas turbine cycle.

Design and evaluation of a high temperature/pressure supercritical carbon dioxide direct tubular receiver for concentrating solar power applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Jesus Daniel

This work focuses on the development of a solar power thermal receiver for a supercritical-carbon dioxide (sCO2), Brayton power-cycle to produce ~1 MWe. Closed-loop sCO2 Brayton cycles are being evaluated in combination with concentrating solar power to provide higher thermal-to-electric conversion efficiencies relative to conventional steam Rankine cycles. High temperatures (923--973 K) and pressures (20--25 MPa) are required in the solar receiver to achieve thermal efficiencies of ~50%, making concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies a competitive alternative to current power generation methods. In this study, the CSP receiver is required to achieve an outlet temperature of 923 K at 25 MPa or 973 K at 20 MPa to meet the operating needs. To obtain compatible receiver tube material, an extensive material review was performed based the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME B31.1 and ASME B313.3 codes respectively. Subsequently, a thermal-structural model was developed using a commercial computational fluid (CFD) dynamics and structural mechanics software for designing and analyzing the tubular receiver that could provide the heat input for a ~2 MWth plant. These results were used to perform an analytical cumulative damage creep-fatigue analysis to estimate the work-life of the tubes. In sequence, an optical-thermal-fluid model was developed to evaluate the resulting thermal efficiency of the tubular receiver from the NSTTF heliostat field. The ray-tracing tool SolTrace was used to obtain the heat-flux distribution on the surfaces of the receiver. The K-ω SST turbulence model and P-1 radiation model used in Fluent were coupled with SolTrace to provide the heat flux distribution on the receiver surface. The creep-fatigue analysis displays the damage accumulated due to the cycling and the permanent deformation of the tubes. Nonetheless, they are able to support the required lifetime. The receiver surface temperatures were found to be within the safe operational limit while exhibiting a receiver thermal efficiency of ~85%. Future work includes the completion of a cyclic loading analysis to be performed using the Larson-Miller creep model in nCode Design Life to corroborate the structural integrity of the receiver over the desired lifetime of ~10,000 cycles.

Does the Current Minimum Validate (or Invalidate) Cycle Prediction Methods?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.

2010-01-01

This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely different results. Current conditions and new observations indicate that some highly regarded techniques now appear to have doubtful utility. Geomagnetic precursors have been reliable in the past and can be tested with 12 cycles of data. Of the three primary geomagnetic precursors only one (the minimum level of geomagnetic activity) suggests a small cycle. The Sun's polar field strength has also been used to successfully predict the last three cycles. The current weak polar fields are indicative of a small cycle. For the first time, dynamo models have been used to predict the size of a solar cycle but with opposite predictions depending on the model and the data assimilation. However, new measurements of the surface meridional flow indicate that the flow was substantially faster on the approach to Cycle 24 minimum than at Cycle 23 minimum. In both dynamo predictions a faster meridional flow should have given a shorter cycle 23 with stronger polar fields. This suggests that these dynamo models are not yet ready for solar cycle prediction.

MLSO Mark III K-Coronameter Observations of the CME Rate from 1989-1996

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St Cyr, O. C.; Flint, Q. A.; Xie, H.; Webb, D. F.; Burkepile, J. T.; Lecinski, A. R.; Quirk, C.; Stanger, A. L.

2015-01-01

We report here an attempt to fill the 1990-1995 gap in the CME (coronal mass ejection) rate using the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO)'s Mark III (Mk3) K-coronameter. The Mk3 instrument observed routinely several hours most days beginning in 1980 until it was upgraded to Mk4 in 1999. We describe the statistical properties of the CMEs detected during 1989-1996, and we determine a CME rate for each of those years. Since spaceborne coronagraphs have more complete duty cycles than a ground-based instrument at a single location, we compare the Mk3-derived CME rate from 1989 with the SMM C/P (Solar Maximum Mission Coronagraph/Polarimeter) coronagraph, and from 1996 with the SOHO (Solar and Hellospheric Observatory) LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph) coronagraphs.

On the aliasing of the solar cycle in the lower stratospheric tropical temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchar, Ales; Ball, William T.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Miksovsky, Jiri; Pisoft, Petr; Peter, Thomas

2017-09-01

The double-peaked response of the tropical stratospheric temperature profile to the 11 year solar cycle (SC) has been well documented. However, there are concerns about the origin of the lower peak due to potential aliasing with volcanic eruptions or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) detected using multiple linear regression analysis. We confirm the aliasing using the results of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3 obtained in the framework of the International Global Atmospheric Chemisty/Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative phase 1. We further show that even without major volcanic eruptions included in transient simulations, the lower stratospheric response exhibits a residual peak when historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs)/sea ice coverage (SIC) are used. Only the use of climatological SSTs/SICs in addition to background stratospheric aerosols removes volcanic and ENSO signals and results in an almost complete disappearance of the modeled solar signal in the lower stratospheric temperature. We demonstrate that the choice of temporal subperiod considered for the regression analysis has a large impact on the estimated profile signal in the lower stratosphere: at least 45 consecutive years are needed to avoid the large aliasing effect of SC maxima with volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991 in historical simulations, reanalyses, and observations. The application of volcanic forcing compiled for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in the CCM SOCOLv3 reduces the warming overestimation in the tropical lower stratosphere and the volcanic aliasing of the temperature response to the SC, although it does not eliminate it completely.

Solar panel thermal cycling testing by solar simulation and infrared radiation methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nuss, H. E.

1980-01-01

For the solar panels of the European Space Agency (ESA) satellites OTS/MAROTS and ECS/MARECS the thermal cycling tests were performed by using solar simulation methods. The performance data of two different solar simulators used and the thermal test results are described. The solar simulation thermal cycling tests for the ECS/MARECS solar panels were carried out with the aid of a rotatable multipanel test rig by which simultaneous testing of three solar panels was possible. As an alternative thermal test method, the capability of an infrared radiation method was studied and infrared simulation tests for the ultralight panel and the INTELSAT 5 solar panels were performed. The setup and the characteristics of the infrared radiation unit using a quartz lamp array of approx. 15 sq and LN2-cooled shutter and the thermal test results are presented. The irradiation uniformity, the solar panel temperature distribution, temperature changing rates for both test methods are compared. Results indicate the infrared simulation is an effective solar panel thermal testing method.

Radiation exposure of German aircraft crews under the impact of solar cycle 23 and airline business factors.

PubMed

Frasch, Gerhard; Kammerer, Lothar; Karofsky, Ralf; Schlosser, Andrea; Stegemann, Ralf

2014-12-01

The exposure of German aircraft crews to cosmic radiation varies both with solar activity and operational factors of airline business. Data come from the German central dose registry and cover monthly exposures of up to 37,000 German aircraft crewmembers that were under official monitoring. During the years 2004 to 2009 of solar cycle 23 (i.e., in the decreasing phase of solar activity), the annual doses of German aircraft crews increased by an average of 20%. Decreasing solar activity allows more galactic radiation to reach the atmosphere, increasing high-altitude doses. The rise results mainly from the less effective protection from the solar wind but also from airline business factors. Both cockpit and cabin personnel differ in age-dependent professional and social status. This status determines substantially the annual effective dose: younger cabin personnel and the elder pilots generally receive higher annual doses than their counterparts. They also receive larger increases in their annual dose when the solar activity decreases. The doses under this combined influence of solar activity and airline business factors result in a maximum of exposure for German aircrews for this solar cycle. With the increasing solar activity of the current solar cycle 24, the doses are expected to decrease again.

A Solar Cycle Prediction Puzzle's PossibleExplanation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, Janet

2007-05-01

A long-standing and intriguing puzzle of the last few decades has been Joan Feynman's (1982) discovery that the solar cycle (sunspot number) maximum trends follow the level of geomagnetic activity during the prior minimum phase. Recently Hathaway (GRL 33, 2006) used this relationship to make a prediction of the size of the next solar maximum. But the physical reason why this should work at all remains a matter of speculation. Although it has been suggested that geomagnetic activity around solar minimum is determined by the terrestrial magnetosphere's response to high speed solar wind streams which seem to often characterize the declining phase of the cycle, why should the occurrence of these streams portend the new solar maximum? Our improving understanding of solar wind sources may hold the key, and also tell us something useful about the solar dynamo.

Latitudinal migration of sunspots based on the ESAI database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Juan; Li, Fu-Yu; Feng, Wen

2018-01-01

The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator, which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone, is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation. The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past. In this study, ESAI’s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear. It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function. In addition, the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses, providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models. Indeed, the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period, and it is located at higher latitudinal position, giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.

PHOTOMETRIC TRENDS IN THE VISIBLE SOLAR CONTINUUM AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO THE CENTER-TO-LIMB PROFILE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peck, C. L.; Rast, M. P.

2015-08-01

Solar irradiance variations over solar rotational timescales are largely determined by the passage of magnetic structures across the visible solar disk. Variations on solar cycle timescales are thought to be similarly due to changes in surface magnetism with activity. Understanding the contribution of magnetic structures to total solar irradiance and solar spectral irradiance requires assessing their contributions as a function of disk position. Since only relative photometry is possible from the ground, the contrasts of image pixels are measured with respect to a center-to-limb intensity profile. Using nine years of full-disk red and blue continuum images from the Precision Solarmore » Photometric Telescope at the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, we examine the sensitivity of continuum contrast measurements to the center-to-limb profile definition. Profiles which differ only by the amount of magnetic activity allowed in the pixels used to determine them yield oppositely signed solar cycle length continuum contrast trends, either agreeing with previous results and showing negative correlation with solar cycle or disagreeing and showing positive correlation with solar cycle. Changes in the center-to-limb profile shape over the solar cycle are responsible for the contradictory contrast results, and we demonstrate that the lowest contrast structures, internetwork and network, are most sensitive to these. Thus the strengths of the full-disk, internetwork, and network photometric trends depend critically on the magnetic flux density used in the quiet-Sun definition. We conclude that the contributions of low contrast magnetic structures to variations in the solar continuum output, particularly to long-term variations, are difficult, if not impossible, to determine without the use of radiometric imaging.« less

Latitude Distribution of Sunspots: Analysis Using Sunspot Data and a Dynamo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Sudip; Karak, Bidya Binay; Banerjee, Dipankar

2017-12-01

In this paper, we explore the evolution of sunspot latitude distribution and explore its relations with the cycle strength. With the progress of the solar cycle, the distributions in two hemispheres from mid-latitudes propagate toward the equator and then (before the usual solar minimum) these two distributions touch each other. By visualizing the evolution of the distributions in two hemispheres, we separate the solar cycles by excluding this hemispheric overlap. From these isolated solar cycles in two hemispheres, we generate latitude distributions for each cycle, starting from cycle 8 to cycle 23. We find that the parameters of these distributions, namely the central latitude (C), width (δ), and height (H), evolve with the cycle number, and they show some hemispheric asymmetries. Although the asymmetries in these parameters persist for a few successive cycles, they get corrected within a few cycles, and the new asymmetries appear again. In agreement with the previous study, we find that distribution parameters are correlated with the strengths of the cycles, although these correlations are significantly different in two hemispheres. The general trend features, i.e., (i) stronger cycles that begin sunspot eruptions at relatively higher latitudes, and (ii) stronger cycles that have wider bands of sunspot emergence latitudes, are confirmed when combining the data from two hemispheres. We explore these features using a flux transport dynamo model with stochastic fluctuations. We find that these features are correctly reproduced in this model. The solar cycle evolution of the distribution center is also in good agreement with observations. Possible explanations of the observed features based on this dynamo model are presented.

Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, Bimal

Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24 \\underline{} Abstract\\underline{} It is very important and interesting to understand the solar eruptions because it produces the geoeffectiveness in our Earth environment. In the rise phase of the solar cycle, geoeffective events are less frequent, thus this provide us better opportunity to study these events including the detection of their source regions. Keeping this in mind, we have analysed the data of rise phase of current solar cycle 24 ( 2009-2012). During above time period, we have selected 59 geoeffective events having Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index < -50 nT. Based on the Dst index, we divided the events into two categories i.e. moderate (< -50 nT > -100 nT ) and intense ( <-100 nT). To locate the solar source regions of geoeffective and SEPs associated events, we have used available images, movies and Solar Geophysical data (SGD) list: for example movies from SOHO/EIT, images and movies from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). In this study, we will discuss and compare the different properties of associated CMEs, flares and their relation with geoeffectiveness.

Integration of photovoltaic and concentrated solar thermal technologies for H2 production by the hybrid sulfur cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberatore, Raffaele; Ferrara, Mariarosaria; Lanchi, Michela; Turchetti, Luca

2017-06-01

It is widely agreed that hydrogen used as energy carrier and/or storage media may significantly contribute in the reduction of emissions, especially if produced by renewable energy sources. The Hybrid Sulfur (HyS) cycle is considered as one of the most promising processes to produce hydrogen through the water-splitting process. The FP7 project SOL2HY2 (Solar to Hydrogen Hybrid Cycles) investigates innovative material and process solutions for the use of solar heat and power in the HyS process. A significant part of the SOL2HY2 project is devoted to the analysis and optimization of the integration of the solar and chemical (hydrogen production) plants. In this context, this work investigates the possibility to integrate different solar technologies, namely photovoltaic, solar central receiver and solar troughs, to optimize their use in the HyS cycle for a green hydrogen production, both in the open and closed process configurations. The analysis carried out accounts for different combinations of geographical location and plant sizing criteria. The use of a sulfur burner, which can serve both as thermal backup and SO2 source for the open cycle, is also considered.

Skylab 2 Solar Physics Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

Skylab 2 Solar Physics Experiment. This black and white view of a solar flare was taken from the skylab remote solar experiment module mounted on top of the vehicle and worked automatically without any interaction from the crew. Solar flares or sunspots are eruptions on the sun's surface and appear to occur in cycles. When these cycles occur, there is worldwide electromagnetic interference affecting radio and television transmission.

Implications of improved measurements of the highest energy SEPs by AMS and PAMELA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitman, K.; Bindi, V.; Consolandi, C.; Corti, C.; Yamashiro, B.

2017-08-01

Solar energetic particles (SEP) are a key target of heliophysics research, not only as exemplars of particle acceleration and transport processes that are ubiquitous in astrophysical plasmas, but also as the most intense transient radiation hazard for human and robotic space explorers. SEPs are very well-observed by spacecraft covering particle energies below several hundred MeV/nucleon. Multiple missions, stretching back over decades, have yielded a fairly complete description of SEP intensity, energy spectra, and composition up to a few hundred MeV/nucleon. SEP characteristics at higher energies are, by comparison, only poorly understood due to the relative dearth of high-energy measurements. This lack of high energy measurements has contributed to a disagreement within the heliophysics community regarding the source regions and mechanisms that accelerate particles up to GeV energies. In solar cycle 24, the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) and the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) have been taking measurements of the highest energy SEPs from ∼ 100 MeV to the GeV. Since the literature has discussed SEP acceleration to GeV energies in terms of Ground Level Enhancements (GLE), we will review the findings for GLEs in solar cycle 23. We will discuss the models and theories that address acceleration up to the GeV and how AMS and PAMELA measurements have the potential to advance the current understanding of SEP acceleration physics. Lastly, only 1-2 GLEs have occurred during solar cycle 24, so we will explore a set of SEP events that were observed in the ⩾100 MeV GOES channels, most of which were also observed by PAMELA and AMS.

Hindcast and forecast of grand solar minina and maxima using a three-frequency dynamo model based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies modulating the 11-year sunspot cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scafetta, Nicola

2016-04-01

The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The two side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle can be associated to a quasi-11-year sunspot solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. These frequencies and other oscillations appear once the model is non-linearly processed. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900- 1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020-2045, which would be produced mostly by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts that during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed. These results clearly indicate that both solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. Scafetta, N.: Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle. J. Atmos. Sol.- Terr. Phys. 80, 296-311 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 81-82, 27-40 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques. Astrophys. Space Sci. 354, 275-299 (2014).

Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

DOEpatents

Bharathan, D.; Bohn, M.S.; Williams, T.A.

1995-05-23

A hybrid combined cycle power plant is described including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production. 1 figure.

Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranovski, A. L.; Clette, F.; Nollau, V.

2008-02-01

In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters - the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

Solar Modulation of Inner Trapped Belt Radiation Flux as a Function of Atmospheric Density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lodhi, M. A. K.

2005-01-01

No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose.

Mid-term periodicities and heliospheric modulation of coronal index and solar flare index during solar cycles 22-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Prithvi Raj; Saxena, A. K.; Tiwari, C. M.

2018-04-01

We applied fast Fourier transform techniques and Morlet wavelet transform on the time series data of coronal index, solar flare index, and galactic cosmic ray, for the period 1986-2008, in order to investigate the long- and mid-term periodicities including the Rieger ({˜ }130 to {˜ }190 days), quasi-period ({˜ }200 to {˜ }374 days), and quasi-biennial periodicities ({˜ }1.20 to {˜ }3.27 years) during the combined solar cycles 22-23. We emphasize the fact that a lesser number of periodicities are found in the range of low frequencies, while the higher frequencies show a greater number of periodicities. The rotation rates at the base of convection zone have periods for coronal index of {˜ }1.43 years and for solar flare index of {˜ }1.41 year, and galactic cosmic ray, {˜ }1.35 year, during combined solar cycles 22-23. In relation to these two solar parameters (coronal index and solar flare index), for the solar cycles 22-23, we found that galactic cosmic ray modulation at mid cut-off rigidity (Rc = 2.43GV) is anti-correlated with time-lag of few months.

Length of the solar cycle influence on the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Tesouro, M.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the length of the solar cycle on the relationship North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship is different according to the length of the solar cycle. When the sunspot cycle is 10 or 11 years long, wintertime NAO and NHT are positively correlated, being the signal more intense during 11 years period, but when the sunspot cycle is longer (12 years) correlations between wintertime NAO and NHT are not significant. In fact there are significant negative correlations between wintertime NAO and spring NHT, with predictive potential.

Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays Observed by SOHO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curdt, W.; Fleck, B.

Both the Cosmic Ray Flux (CRF) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) have left an imprint on SOHO technical systems. While the solar array efficiency degraded irreversibly down to ≈77% of its original level over roughly 1 1/2 solar cycles, Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in the solid state recorder (SSR) have been reversed by the memory protection mechanism. We compare the daily CRF observed by the Oulu station with the daily SOHO SEU rate and with the degradation curve of the solar arrays. The Oulu CRF and the SOHO SSR SEU rate are both modulated by the solar cycle and are highly correlated, except for sharp spikes in the SEU rate, caused by isolated SEP events, which also show up as discontinuities in the otherwise slowly decreasing solar ray efficiency. This allows to discriminate between effects with solar and non-solar origin and to compare the relative strength of both. We find that during solar cycle 23 (1996 Apr 1 -- 2008 Aug 31) only 6% of the total number of SSR SEUs were caused by SEPs; the remaining 94% were due to galactic cosmic rays. During the maximum period of cycle 23 (2000 Jan 1 -- 2003 Dec 31), the SEP contribution increased to 22%, and during 2001, the year with the highest SEP rate, to 30%. About 40% of the total solar array degradation during the 17 years from Jan 1996 through Feb 2013 can be attributed to proton events, i.e. the effect of a series of short-lived, violent SEP events is comparable to the cycle-integrated damage by cosmic rays.

TOMS and SBUV Data: Comparison to 3D Chemical-Transport Model Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.; Steenrod, Steve; Frith, Stacey

2003-01-01

We have updated our merged ozone data (MOD) set using the TOMS data from the new version 8 algorithm. We then analyzed these data for contributions from solar cycle, volcanoes, QBO, and halogens using a standard statistical time series model. We have recently completed a hindcast run of our 3D chemical-transport model for the same years. This model uses off-line winds from the finite-volume GCM, a full stratospheric photochemistry package, and time-varying forcing due to halogens, solar uv, and volcanic aerosols. We will report on a parallel analysis of these model results using the same statistical time series technique as used for the MOD data.

Wind Observations of Anomalous Cosmic Rays from Solar Minimum to Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reames, D. V.; McDonald, F. B.

2003-01-01

We report the first observation near Earth of the time behavior of anomalous cosmic-ray N, O, and Ne ions through the period surrounding the maximum of the solar cycle. These observations were made by the Wind spacecraft during the 1995-2002 period spanning times from solar minimum through solar maximum. Comparison of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays provides a powerful tool for the study of the physics of solar modulation throughout the solar cycle.

Catalogue of 55-80 MeV solar proton events extending through solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paassilta, Miikka; Raukunen, Osku; Vainio, Rami; Valtonen, Eino; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Siipola, Robert; Riihonen, Esa; Dierckxsens, Mark; Crosby, Norma; Malandraki, Olga; Heber, Bernd; Klein, Karl-Ludwig

2017-06-01

We present a new catalogue of solar energetic particle events near the Earth, covering solar cycle 23 and the majority of solar cycle 24 (1996-2016), based on the 55-80 MeV proton intensity data gathered by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron experiment (SOHO/ERNE). In addition to ERNE proton and heavy ion observations, data from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Electron, Proton and Alpha Monitor (ACE/EPAM) (near-relativistic electrons), SOHO/EPHIN (Electron Proton Helium Instrument) (relativistic electrons), SOHO/LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph) (coronal mass ejections, CMEs) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray experiments are also considered and the associations between the particle and CME/X-ray events deduced to obtain a better understanding of each event. A total of 176 solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been identified as having occurred during the time period of interest; their onset and solar release times have been estimated using both velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) for protons, as well as TSA for near-relativistic electrons. Additionally, a brief statistical analysis was performed on the VDA and TSA results, as well as the X-rays and CMEs associated with the proton/electron events, both to test the viability of the VDA and to investigate possible differences between the two solar cycles. We find, in confirmation of a number of previous studies, that VDA results for protons that yield an apparent path length of 1 AU < s ≾ 3 AU seem to be useful, but those outside this range are probably unreliable, as evidenced by the anticorrelation between apparent path length and release time estimated from the X-ray activity. It also appears that even the first-arriving energetic protons apparently undergo significant pitch angle scattering in the interplanetary medium, with the resulting apparent path length being on average about twice the length of the spiral magnetic field. The analysis indicates an increase in high-energy SEP events originating from the far-eastern solar hemisphere; for instance, such an event with a well-established associated GOES flare has so far occurred three times during cycle 24 but possibly not at all during cycle 23. The generally lower level of solar activity during cycle 24, as opposed to cycle 23, has probably caused a significant decrease in total ambient pressure in the interplanetary space, leading to a larger proportion of SEP-associated halo-type CMEs. Taken together, these observations point to a qualitative difference between the two solar cycles.

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat; Akiyama, Sachiko; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Makela, Pertti; Michalek, Grzegorz

2014-01-01

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT AREA OVER TWO SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G.

2013-06-20

We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots betweenmore » the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.« less

A study of the possible relation of the cardiac arrhythmias occurrence to the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavromichalaki, H.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Theodoropoulou, A.; Paouris, E.; Apostolou, Th.

2017-01-01

The biological human system is probably affected by the solar and geomagnetic disturbances as well as the cosmic ray variations. In this work, the relation between the solar activity and cosmic ray variations and the cardiac arrhythmias over the time period 1997-2009 covering the solar cycle 23, is studied. The used medical data set refers to 4741 patients with cardiac arrhythmias and 2548 of whom were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, obtained from the 2nd Cardiological Clinic of the General Hospital of Nicaea, Piraeus, in Greece. The smoothing method on a 365-day basis and the Pearson r-coefficient were used in order to compare these records with the number of sunspots, flares, solar proton events, coronal mass ejections and cosmic ray intensity. Applying a moving correlation function to ±1500 days, it is suggested that a change of the correlation sign between the medical data and each one of the above parameters occurs during a time interval of about 2-3 years. This interval corresponds to the time span of the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field of this solar cycle, which always takes place around the solar cycle maximum. After then a correlation analysis was carried out corresponding to the rise (1997-2001) and the decay (2002-2009) phases of the solar cycle 23. It is noticeable that the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field coincides with the period where the sign of the correlation between the incidence of arrhythmias and the occurrence number of the solar eruptive events and the cosmic ray intensity, changes sign. The results are comparable with those obtained from the previous solar cycle 22 based on medical data from another country.

The Sun's Seismic Radius as Measured from the Fundamental Modes of Oscillations and Its Implications for the TSI Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Kiran; Tripathy, S. C.; Hill, F.

2018-05-01

In this Letter we explore the relationship between the solar seismic radius and total solar irradiance (TSI) during the last two solar cycles using the uninterrupted data from space-borne instruments on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The seismic radius is calculated from the fundamental (f) modes of solar oscillations utilizing the observations from SoHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the TSI measurements are obtained from SoHO/VIRGO. Our study suggests that the major contribution to the TSI variation arises from the changes in magnetic field, while the radius variation plays a secondary role. We find that the solar irradiance increases with decreasing seismic radius; however, the anti-correlation between them is moderately weak. The estimated maximum change in seismic radius during a solar cycle is about 5 km, and is consistent in both solar cycles 23 and 24. Previous studies ;suggest a radius change at the surface of the order of 0.06 arcsec to explain the 0.1% variation in the TSI values during the solar cycle; however, our inferred seismic radius change is significantly smaller, hence the TSI variations cannot be fully explained by the temporal changes in seismic radius.

LSA silicon material task closed-cycle process development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roques, R. A.; Wakefield, G. F.; Blocher, J. M., Jr.; Browning, M. F.; Wilson, W.

1979-01-01

The initial effort on feasibility of the closed cycle process was begun with the design of the two major items of untested equipment, the silicon tetrachloride by product converter and the rotary drum reactor for deposition of silicon from trichlorosilane. The design criteria of the initial laboratory equipment included consideration of the reaction chemistry, thermodynamics, and other technical factors. Design and construction of the laboratory equipment was completed. Preliminary silicon tetrachloride conversion experiments confirmed the expected high yield of trichlorosilane, up to 98 percent of theoretical conversion. A preliminary solar-grade polysilicon cost estimate, including capital costs considered extremely conservative, of $6.91/kg supports the potential of this approach to achieve the cost goal. The closed cycle process appears to have a very likely potential to achieve LSA goals.

Polar low ionospheric responses to the most energetic SPE of the solar cycle#23 based on cosmic noise absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacini, A. A.; Brum, C. G.

2013-05-01

We present a detailed study of the impact of solar proton event over the polar low ionosphere, occurred in Jan/2005, during the descendent phase of the XXIII solar activity cycle. This event was the hardest SPE of the last solar cycle, and was associated to a solar X-ray flare X.2 and CME halo. For this study, we are using cosmic noise absorption data measured by a riometer located in Oulu, Finland (65oN) along with solar proton data from GOES satellite. Based on computation simulations we intend to explain the 30MHz riometer absorption events based on variations of the flux and spectrum of the energetic particle precipitated.

Polar low ionospheric responses to the most energetic SPE of the solar cycle#23 based on cosmic noise absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacini, A. A.; Garnett Marques Brum, C.

2013-12-01

We present a detailed study of the impact of solar proton event over the polar low ionosphere, occurred Jan/2005, during the descendent phase of the last solar activity cycle XXIII. This event was the hardest SPE of the last solar cycle, and was associated to a solar X-ray flare X.2 and CME halo. For this study, we are using cosmic noise absorption data measured by a riometer located in Oulu, Finland (65N) along with solar proton data from GOES satellite. Based on computation simulations we intend to explain the 30MHz riometer absorption events based on variations of the flux and spectrum of the energetic particle precipitated.

Regenerative Fuel Cell Test Rig Completed and Operational at Glenn Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bents, David J.

2004-01-01

The NASA Glenn Research Center has completed construction of its first closed-cycle hydrogen-oxygen regenerative fuel cell (RFC). The RFC is an electrochemical system that collects and stores solar energy during the day then releases that energy at night, thus making the Sun's energy available all 24 hours. It consists of a dedicated hydrogen-oxygen fuel cell stack and an electrolyzer stack, the interconnecting plumbing and valves, cooling pumps, water transfer pumps, gas recirculation pumps, phase separators, storage tanks for oxygen (O2) and hydrogen (H2), heat exchangers, isolation valves, pressure regulators, nitrogen purge provisions, instrumentation, and other components. It includes all the equipment required to (1) absorb electrical power from an outside source and store it as pressurized hydrogen and oxygen and (2) make electrical power from the stored gases, saving the product water for reuse during the next cycle.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Solar Cycle Influences over the Winter Arctic Simulated by the WACCM4 Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. F.; Limpasuvan, T. L.; Limpasuvan, V.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

2017-12-01

Observations show that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle perturb the polar vortex via planetary wave convergence at high latitudes, a mechanism first proposed by Holton and Tan in 1980. Their perturbations lead to increases of stratospheric sudden warming events, and hence observable increases in temperature and ozone abundance in the polar vortex, during the easterly phase of QBO and the solar maximum. Here we simulate the changes in the polar atmosphere using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model 4 (WACCM4) with the prescribed QBO and 11-year solar cycle forcing. The simulation is diagnosed in four groups: westerly QBO phase and solar minimum, westerly QBO phase and solar maximum, easterly QBO phase and solar minimum, and easterly QBO phase and solar maximum. The simulated changes in temperature and ozone are compared with satellite observations.

Multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation of supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles integrated with solar central receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez Padilla, Ricardo; Soo Too, Yen Chean; Benito, Regano; McNaughton, Robbie; Stein, Wes

2018-01-01

In this paper, optimisation of the supercritical CO? Brayton cycles integrated with a solar receiver, which provides heat input to the cycle, was performed. Four S-CO? Brayton cycle configurations were analysed and optimum operating conditions were obtained by using a multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation. Four different sets, each including two objective parameters, were considered individually. The individual multi-objective optimisation was performed by using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm. The effect of reheating, solar receiver pressure drop and cycle parameters on the overall exergy and cycle thermal efficiency was analysed. The results showed that, for all configurations, the overall exergy efficiency of the solarised systems achieved at maximum value between 700°C and 750°C and the optimum value is adversely affected by the solar receiver pressure drop. In addition, the optimum cycle high pressure was in the range of 24.2-25.9 MPa, depending on the configurations and reheat condition.

SUN-LIKE MAGNETIC CYCLES IN THE RAPIDLY ROTATING YOUNG SOLAR ANALOG HD 30495

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egeland, Ricky; Metcalfe, Travis S.; Hall, Jeffrey C.

A growing body of evidence suggests that multiple dynamo mechanisms can drive magnetic variability on different timescales, not only in the Sun but also in other stars. Many solar activity proxies exhibit a quasi-biennial (∼2 year) variation, which is superimposed upon the dominant 11 year cycle. A well-characterized stellar sample suggests at least two different relationships between rotation period and cycle period, with some stars exhibiting long and short cycles simultaneously. Within this sample, the solar cycle periods are typical of a more rapidly rotating star, implying that the Sun might be in a transitional state or that it hasmore » an unusual evolutionary history. In this work, we present new and archival observations of dual magnetic cycles in the young solar analog HD 30495, a ∼1 Gyr old G1.5 V star with a rotation period near 11 days. This star falls squarely on the relationships established by the broader stellar sample, with short-period variations at ∼1.7 years and a long cycle of ∼12 years. We measure three individual long-period cycles and find durations ranging from 9.6 to 15.5 years. We find the short-term variability to be intermittent, but present throughout the majority of the time series, though its occurrence and amplitude are uncorrelated with the longer cycle. These essentially solar-like variations occur in a Sun-like star with more rapid rotation, though surface differential rotation measurements leave open the possibility of a solar equivalence.« less

The NASA Solar Probe mission - In situ determination of interplanetary out-of-the ecliptic and near-solar dust environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Randolph, James E.

1991-01-01

The NASA Solar Probe mission will be one of the most exciting dust missions ever flown and will lead to a revolutionary advance in our understanding of dust within our solar system. Solar Probe will map the dust environment from the orbit of Jupiter (5 AU), to within 4 solar radii of the sun's center. The region between 0.3 AU and 4 Rs has never been visited before, so the ten days that the spacecraft spends during each (of the two) orbit is purely exploratory in nature. Solar Probe will also reach heliographic latitudes as high as about 15 to 28 deg above (below) the ecliptic on its trajectory inbound (outbound) to (from) the sun. This, in addition to the ESA/NASA Ulysses mission, will help determine the out-of-the-ecliptic dust environment. A post-perihelion burn will reduce the satellite orbital period to 2.5 years about the sun. A possible extended mission would allow data reception for two more revolutions, mapping out a complete solar cycle. Because the near-solar dust environment is not well understood (or is controversial at best), and it is very important to have better knowledge of the dust environment to protect Solar Probe from high velocity dust hits, we urgently request the scientific community to obtain further measurements of the nearsolar dust properties.

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensities at 1 AU During the Approach to the Cycle 24/25 Solar Minimum and Throughout the Last 20 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leske, R. A.; Cummings, A. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.

2017-12-01

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities, but with differences between solar polarity cycles: at high rigidities, GCRs reach higher peak intensities during A<0 cycles, while ACRs have been higher at A>0 solar minima. At present, during the approach to an A>0 solar minimum, ACR oxygen above 8 MeV/nucleon as measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) has already reached the peak intensities seen during the 2009 A<0 solar minimum, but is still 40% below the levels seen in 1997 during the last A>0 minimum. The GCR iron intensity at 300 MeV/nucleon, on the other hand, is presently comparable to that in 1997 but remains 10% below its record-setting 2009 value. Drift effects play an important role in the modulation of both ACRs and GCRs. Positively charged ions drift inward along the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during A<0 cycles and their intensities are thus sensitive to the HCS tilt angle, which remained high for much of the last solar cycle. We have previously shown that both ACR and GCR intensities were significantly higher for a given HCS tilt angle during the 2000-2012 A<0 cycle than they were during the prior (1980-1990) A<0 cycle, and this trend appears to be continuing into the new A>0 cycle. But while GCR intensities in 2009 reached the highest levels recorded during the last 50 years, ACR intensities were only similar to those in the 1980s A<0 minimum. Factors such as a weaker interplanetary magnetic field, perhaps with a reduction in the ACR source strength or greater sensitivity of ACRs than GCRs to the HCS tilt angle, may account for the difference in their modulation behavior.We present 20 years of ACR and GCR intensity data acquired by ACE throughout two solar cycles, with emphasis on recent observations, and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the relative behavior of ACRs and GCRs in the different solar cycles.

11- and 22-year variations of the cosmic ray density and of the solar wind speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chirkov, N. P.

1985-01-01

Cosmic ray density variations for 17-21 solar activity cycles and the solar wind speed for 20-21 events are investigated. The 22-year solar wind speed recurrence was found in even and odd cycles. The 22-year variations of cosmic ray density were found to be opposite that of solar wind speed and solar activity. The account of solar wind speed in 11-year variations significantly decreases the modulation region of cosmic rays when E = 10-20 GeV.

Structure of the Photospheric Magnetic Field During Sector Crossings of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-11-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we separately study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during Solar Cycles 21 - 24 for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976 - 2016. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle, solar cycle phase, and hemisphere. The Hale boundaries in more than half of the ascending, maximum, and declining phases are clear and statistically significant. The clearest Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd Cycles 21 and 23, but less systematical during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even Cycles 22 and 24. No similar difference between odd and even cycles is found for the (-,+) crossings. This shows that the northern hemisphere has a more organized Hale pattern overall. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon.

Study of radiatively sustained cesium plasmas for solar energy conversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, A. J.; Dunning, G. J.

1980-01-01

The results of a study aimed at developing a high temperature solar electric converter are reported. The converter concept is based on the use of an alkali plasma to serve as both an efficient high temperature collector of solar radiation as well as the working fluid for a high temperature working cycle. The working cycle is a simple magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Rankine cycle employing a solid electrode Faraday MHD channel. Research milestones include the construction of a theoretical model for coupling sunlight in a cesium plasma and the experimental demonstration of cesium plasma heating with a solar simulator in excellent agreement with the theory. Analysis of a solar MHD working cycle in which excimer laser power rather than electric power is extracted is also presented. The analysis predicts a positive gain coefficient on the cesium-xenon excimer laser transition.

Methods for Cloud Cover Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glackin, D. L.; Huning, J. R.; Smith, J. H.; Logan, T. L.

1984-01-01

Several methods for cloud cover estimation are described relevant to assessing the performance of a ground-based network of solar observatories. The methods rely on ground and satellite data sources and provide meteorological or climatological information. One means of acquiring long-term observations of solar oscillations is the establishment of a ground-based network of solar observatories. Criteria for station site selection are: gross cloudiness, accurate transparency information, and seeing. Alternative methods for computing this duty cycle are discussed. The cycle, or alternatively a time history of solar visibility from the network, can then be input to a model to determine the effect of duty cycle on derived solar seismology parameters. Cloudiness from space is studied to examine various means by which the duty cycle might be computed. Cloudiness, and to some extent transparency, can potentially be estimated from satellite data.

Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W.

2017-12-01

Establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun's 22-year magnetic activity cycle. The intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction of these magnetic bands appear to explain the occurrence of decadal scale variability that primarily manifests itself in the sunspot cycle. However, on timescales of ten months or so, those bands posses their own internal variability with an amplitude of the same order of magnitude as the decadal scale. The latter have been tied to the existence of magnetized Rossby waves in the solar convection zone that result in surges of magnetic flux emergence that correspondingly modulate our star's radiative and particulate output. One of the most important events in the progression of these bands is their (apparent) termination at the solar equator that signals a global increase in magnetic flux emergence that becomes the new solar cycle. We look at the particulate and radiative implications of these termination points, their temporal recurrence and signature, from the Sun to the Earth, and show the correlated signature of solar cycle termination events and major oceanic oscillations that extend back many decades. A combined one-two punch of reduced particulate forcing and increased radiative forcing that result from the termination of one solar cycle and rapid blossoming of another correlates strongly with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This shift does not occur at solar minima, nor solar maxima, but at a particular, non-periodic, time in between. The failure to identify these termination points, and their relative irregularity, have inhibited a correlation to be observed and physical processes to be studied. This result potentially opens the door to a broader understanding of solar variability on our planet and its weather. Ongoing tracking of solar magnetic band migration indicates that Cycle 24 will terminate in the 2020 timeframe and thus we may expect to see an attendant shift to La Niña conditions at that time.

Cosmic Ray Helium Intensities over the Solar Cycle from ACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeNolfo, G. A.; Yanasak, N. E.; Binns, W. R.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Davis, A. J.; George, J. S.; Hink. P. L.; Israel, M. H.; Lave, K.;

Study the gradient characteristics of the ionosphere at equatorial latitude during the latest cycle of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen Thai, Chinh; Temitope Seun, Oluwadare; Le Thi, Nhung; Schuh, Harald

2017-04-01

The sun has its own seasons with an average duration of about 11 years. In this time, the sun enters a period of increased activity called the solar maximum and a period of decreased activity called the solar minimum. Cycles span from one minimum to the next. The current solar cycle is 24, which began on January 4, 2008 and is expected to be ended in 2019. During this period, the ionosphere changes its thickness and its characteristics as well. The change is most complicated and unpredictable at the equatorial latitudes in a band around 150 northward and 150 southward from the equator. Thailand is located in these regions is known as one of the countries most affected by the ionosphere change. Ionospheric information such as the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and scintillation indices can be extracted from the measurements of GNSS dual-frequency receivers. In this study, a Matlab tool is programmed to calculate some ionosphere parameters from the normal RINEX observation file including VTEC value, amplitude scintillation S4 index and others. The value of VTEC at one IGS station in Thailand (13.740N, 100.530E) is computed for almost one full solar cycle, that is 8 years, from 2009 to 2016. From these results, we are able to derive the rules of TEC variation over time and its dependence on solar activity in the equatorial regions. The change of VTEC is estimated in diurnal, seasonal and annual variation for the latest solar cycle. The solar cycle can be represented in several ways, in this paper we use the sunspot number and the F10.7 cm radio flux to describe the solar activity. The correlation coefficients between these solar indices and the monthly maximum of VTEC value are around 0.87, this indicates a high dependence of the ionosphere on solar activity. Besides, a scintillation map derived from GNSS data is displayed to indicate the intensity of scintillation activity.

Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth

2001-01-01

Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends.

Variations of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic parameters with solar magnetic multipole fields during Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Bogyeong; Lee, Jeongwoo; Yi, Yu; Oh, Suyeon

2015-01-01

In this study we compare the temporal variations of the solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic (SIG) parameters with that of open solar magnetic flux from 1976 to 2012 (from Solar Cycle 21 to the early phase of Cycle 24) for a purpose of identifying their possible relationships. By the open flux, we mean the average magnetic field over the source surface (2.5 solar radii) times the source area as defined by the potential field source surface (PFSS) model of the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). In our result, most SIG parameters except the solar wind dynamic pressure show rather poor correlations with the open solar magnetic field. Good correlations are recovered when the contributions from individual multipole components are counted separately. As expected, solar activity indices such as sunspot number, total solar irradiance, 10.7 cm radio flux, and solar flare occurrence are highly correlated with the flux of magnetic quadrupole component. The dynamic pressure of solar wind is strongly correlated with the dipole flux, which is in anti-phase with Solar Cycle (SC). The geomagnetic activity represented by the Ap index is correlated with higher order multipole components, which show relatively a slow time variation with SC. We also found that the unusually low geomagnetic activity during SC 23 is accompanied by the weak open solar fields compared with those in other SCs. It is argued that such dependences of the SIG parameters on the individual multipole components of the open solar magnetic flux may clarify why some SIG parameters vary in phase with SC and others show seemingly delayed responses to SC variation.

Closed Cycle Engine Program Used in Solar Dynamic Power Testing Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ensworth, Clint B., III; McKissock, David B.

1998-01-01

NASA Lewis Research Center is testing the world's first integrated solar dynamic power system in a simulated space environment. This system converts solar thermal energy into electrical energy by using a closed-cycle gas turbine and alternator. A NASA-developed analysis code called the Closed Cycle Engine Program (CCEP) has been used for both pretest predictions and post-test analysis of system performance. The solar dynamic power system has a reflective concentrator that focuses solar thermal energy into a cavity receiver. The receiver is a heat exchanger that transfers the thermal power to a working fluid, an inert gas mixture of helium and xenon. The receiver also uses a phase-change material to store the thermal energy so that the system can continue producing power when there is no solar input power, such as when an Earth-orbiting satellite is in eclipse. The system uses a recuperated closed Brayton cycle to convert thermal power to mechanical power. Heated gas from the receiver expands through a turbine that turns an alternator and a compressor. The system also includes a gas cooler and a radiator, which reject waste cycle heat, and a recuperator, a gas-to-gas heat exchanger that improves cycle efficiency by recovering thermal energy.

In Search of Sun-Climate Connection Using Solar Irradiance Measurements and Climate Records

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Kyle, H. Lee

2000-01-01

The Earth's temperature has risen approximately 0.5 degree-C in the last 150 years. Because the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased nearly 30% since the industrial revolution, a common conjecture, supported by various climate models, is that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming. Another probable factor for the warming is the natural variation of solar irradiance. Although the variation is as small as 0.1 % it is hypothesized that it contributes to part of the temperature rise. Warmer or cooler ocean temperature at one part of the Globe may manifest as abnormally wet or dry weather patterns some months or years later at another part of the globe. Furthermore, the lower atmosphere can be affected through its coupling with the stratosphere, after the stratospheric ozone absorbs the ultraviolet portion of the solar irradiance. In this paper, we use wavelet transforms based on Morlet wavelet to analyze the time-frequency properties in several datasets, including the Radiation Budget measurements, the long-term total solar irradiance time series, the long-term temperature at two locations for the North and the South Hemisphere. The main solar cycle, approximately 11 years, are identified in the long-term total solar irradiance time series. The wavelet transform of the temperature datasets show annual cycle but not the solar cycle. Some correlation is seen between the length of the solar cycle extracted from the wavelet transform and the North Hemisphere temperature time series. The absence of the 11-year cycle in a time series does not necessarily imply that the geophysical parameter is not affected by the solar cycle; rather it simply reflects the complex nature of the Earth's response to climate forcings.

Periodic analysis of solar activity and its link with the Arctic oscillation phenomenon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qu, Weizheng; Li, Chun; Du, Ling

2014-12-01

Based on spectrum analysis, we provide the arithmetic expressions of the quasi 11 yr cycle, 110 yr century cycle of relative sunspot numbers, and quasi 22 yr cycle of solar magnetic field polarity. Based on a comparative analysis of the monthly average geopotential height, geopotential height anomaly, and temperature anomaly of the northern hemisphere at locations with an air pressure of 500 HPa during the positive and negative phases of AO (Arctic Oscillation), one can see that the abnormal warming period in the Arctic region corresponds to the negative phase of AO, while the anomalous cold period corresponds to itsmore » positive phase. This shows that the abnormal change in the Arctic region is an important factor in determining the anomalies of AO. In accordance with the analysis performed using the successive filtering method, one can see that the AO phenomenon occurring in January shows a clear quasi 88 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle, which are closely related to solar activities. The results of our comparative analysis show that there is a close inverse relationship between the solar activities (especially the solar magnetic field index changes) and the changes in the 22 yr cycle of the AO occurring in January, and that the two trends are basically opposite of each other. That is to say, in most cases after the solar magnetic index MI rises from the lowest value, the solar magnetic field turns from north to south, and the high-energy particle flow entering the Earth's magnetosphere increases to heat the polar atmosphere, thus causing the AO to drop from the highest value; after the solar magnetic index MI drops from the highest value, the solar magnetic field turns from south to north, and the solar high-energy particle flow passes through the top of the Earth's magnetosphere rather than entering it to heat the polar atmosphere. Thus the polar temperature drops, causing the AO to rise from the lowest value. In summary, the variance contribution rate of the changes in the quasi 110 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle for the AO reaches 62.9%, indicating that solar activity is an important driving factor of the AO.« less

Characterization testing of MEASAT GaAs/Ge solar cell assemblies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Mike R.; Garcia, Curtis A.; Goodelle, George S.; Powe, Joseph S.; Schwartz, Joel A.

1996-01-01

The first commercial communications satellite with gallium-arsenide on germanium (GaAs/Ge) solar arrays is scheduled for launch in December 1995. The spacecraft, named MEASAT, was built by Hughes Space and Communications Company. The solar cell assemblies consisted of large area GaAs/Ge cells supplied by Spectrolab Inc. with infrared reflecting (IRR) coverglass supplied by Pilkington Space Technology. A comprehensive characterization program was performed on the GaAs/Ge solar cell assemblies used on the MEASAT array. This program served two functions; first to establish the database needed to accurately predict on-orbit performance under a variety of conditions; and second, to demonstrate the ability of the solar cell assemblies to withstand all mission environments while still providing the required power at end-of-life. Characterization testing included measurement of electrical performance parameters as a function of radiation exposure, temperature, and angle of incident light; reverse bias stability; optical and thermal properties; mechanical strength tests, panel fabrication, humidity and thermal cycling environmental tests. The results provided a complete database enabling the design of the MEASAT solar array, and demonstrated that the GaAs/Ge cells meet the spacecraft requirements at end-of-life.

Characterization testing of MEASAT GaAs/Ge solar cell assemblies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Mike R.; Garcia, Curtis A.; Goodelle, George S.; Powe, Joseph S.; Schwartz, Joel A.

1995-01-01

The first commercial communications satellite with gallium-arsenide on germanium (GaAs/Ge) solar arrays is scheduled for launch in December 1995. The spacecraft, named MEASAT, was built by hughes Space and Telecommunications company for Binariang Satellite Systems of Malaysia. The solar cell assemblies consisted of large area GaAs/Ge cells supplied by Spectrolab Inc. with infrared reflecting (IRR) coverglass supplied by Pilkington Space Technology. A comprehensive characterization program was performed on the GaAs/Ge solar cell assemblies used on the MEASAT array. This program served two functions; first to establish the database needed to accurately predict on-orbit performance under a variety of conditions; and second, to demonstrate the ability of the solar cell assemblies to withstand all mission environments while still providing the required power at end-of-life. characterization testing included measurement of electrical performance parameters as a function of radiation exposure, temperature, and angle of incident light; reverse bias stability; optical and thermal properties; mechanical strength tests, panel fabrication, humidity and thermal cycling environmental tests. The results provided a complete database enabling the design of the MEASAT solar array, and demonstrated that the GaAs/Ge cells meet the spacecraft requirements at end-of-life.

Intensity Variations of Narrow Bands of Solar UV Radiation during Descending Phases of SACs 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigolashvili, M.; Kapanadze, N.

2014-12-01

The study of variations of four narrow bands of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the ultraviolet (UV) range for period 1981-2008 is presented. Observational data obtained by space-flight missions SORCE, UARS, SME and daily meanings of international sunspot number (ISN) have been used. The investigated data cover the decreasing phases of the solar activity cycles (SACs) 21, 22 and 23. We have revealed a peculiar behavior of intensity variability of some solar ultraviolet spectral lines originated in the solar chromospheres for period corresponding to the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. It is found that variability of emission of different solar spectral narrow bands (289.5 nm, 300.5 nm) does not agree equally well with ISN variability during decreasing phase of the solar activity cycle 23. The negative correlations between total solar irradiance and the solar spectral narrow bands of UV emission (298.5 nm, 300.5 nm) had been revealed. The existence of the negative correlation can be explained by the sensitivity of SSI of some emission lines to the solar global magnetic field.

A transient plasticity study and low cycle fatigue analysis of the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armand, Sasan C.; Liao, Mei-Hwa; Morris, Ronald W.

1990-01-01

The Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket assembly is comprised of several layers of materials having dissimilar elastic, thermal, and mechanical properties. The operating temperature of the solar array, which ranges from -75 to +60 C, along with the material incompatibility of the blanket assembly components combine to cause an elastic-plastic stress in the weld points of the assembly. The weld points are secondary structures in nature, merely serving as electrical junctions for gathering the current. The thermal mechanical loading of the blanket assembly operating in low earth orbit continually changes throughout each 90 min orbit, which raises the possibility of fatigue induced failure. A series of structural analyses were performed in an attempt to predict the fatigue life of the solar cell in the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic array blanket. A nonlinear elastic-plastic MSC/NASTRAN analysis followed by a fatigue calculation indicated a fatigue life of 92,000 to 160,000 cycles for the solar cell weld tabs. Additional analyses predict a permanent buckling phenomenon in the copper interconnect after the first loading cycle. This should reduce or eliminate the pulling of the copper interconnect on the joint where it is welded to the silicon solar cell. It is concluded that the actual fatigue life of the solar array blanket assembly should be significantly higher than the calculated 92,000 cycles, and thus the program requirement of 87,500 cycles (orbits) will be met. Another important conclusion that can be drawn from the overall analysis is that, the strain results obtained from the MSC/NASTRAN nonlinear module are accurate to use for low-cycle fatigue analysis, since both thermal cycle testing of solar cells and analysis have shown higher fatigue life than the minimum program requirement of 87,500 cycles.

Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibasaki, K.

2011-12-01

The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening.

The economics of solar powered absorption cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartlett, J. C.

1978-01-01

Analytic procedure evaluates cost of combining absorption-cycle chiller with solar-energy system in residential or commercial application. Procedure assumes that solar-energy system already exists to heat building and that cooling system must be added. Decision is whether to cool building with conventional vapor-compression-cycle chiller or to use solar-energy system to provide heat input to absorption chiller.

A reexamination of the QBO period modulation by the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, P.; Tung, K. K.

2008-04-01

Using the updated Singapore wind from 1953 to 2007 for the lower stratosphere 70-10 hPa, courtesy of Barbara Naujokat of Free University of Berlin, we examine the variation of the period of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) as a function of height and its modulation in time by the 11-year solar cycle. The analysis is supplemented by the ERA-40 reanalysis up to 1 hPa. Previously, it was reported that the descent of the easterly shear zone tends to stall near 30 hPa during solar minimum, leading to a lengthened QBO westerly duration near 44-50 hPa and the reported anticorrelation of the westerly duration and the solar cycle. Using an objective method, continuous wavelet transform (CWT), for the determination of local QBO period, we find that the whole QBO period is almost invariant with respect to height, so that the stalling mechanism affects only the partition of the whole period between easterly and westerly durations. Using this longest data set available for equatorial stratospheric wind, which spans five and half solar cycles (six solar minima), we find that in three solar minima, the QBO period is lengthened, while in the remaining almost three solar cycles, the QBO period is lengthened instead at solar maxima. We suggest that the decadal variation of the QBO period originates in the upper stratosphere, where the solar-ozone radiative influence is strong. The solar modulation of the QBO period is found to be nonstationary; the averaged effect cannot be determined unless the data record is much longer. In shorter records, the correlation can change sign, as we have found in segments of the longest record available, with or without lag.

Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis

2015-04-01

The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling.

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population.

PubMed

Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

2015-08-06

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km(2) yr(-1) since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km(2) delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains ("archeological silence"). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region.

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

2015-08-01

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr-1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region.

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population

PubMed Central

Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

2015-01-01

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr−1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region. PMID:26246410

An Exploration of the Relationship between Improvements in Energy Efficiency and Life-Cycle Energy and Carbon Emissions using the BIRDS Low-Energy Residential Database.

PubMed

Kneifel, Joshua; O'Rear, Eric; Webb, David; O'Fallon, Cheyney

2018-02-01

To conduct a more complete analysis of low-energy and net-zero energy buildings that considers both the operating and embodied energy/emissions, members of the building community look to life-cycle assessment (LCA) methods. This paper examines differences in the relative impacts of cost-optimal energy efficiency measure combinations depicting residential buildings up to and beyond net-zero energy consumption on operating and embodied flows using data from the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Low-Energy Residential Database. Results indicate that net-zero performance leads to a large increase in embodied flows (over 40%) that offsets some of the reductions in operational flows, but overall life-cycle flows are still reduced by over 60% relative to the state energy code. Overall, building designs beyond net-zero performance can partially offset embodied flows with negative operational flows by replacing traditional electricity generation with solar production, but would require an additional 8.34 kW (18.54 kW in total) of due south facing solar PV to reach net-zero total life-cycle flows. Such a system would meet over 239% of operational consumption of the most energy efficient design considered in this study and over 116% of a state code-compliant building design in its initial year of operation.

Technical and economic feasibility study of solar/fossil hybrid power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomfield, H. S.; Calogeras, J. E.

1977-01-01

Results show that new hybrid systems utilizing fossil fuel augmentation of solar energy can provide significant capital and energy cost benefits when compared with solar thermal systems requiring thermal storage. These benefits accrue from a reduction of solar collection area that results from both the use of highly efficient gas and combined cycle energy conversion subsystems and elimination of the requirement for long-term energy storage subsystems. Technical feasibility and fuel savings benefits of solar hybrid retrofit to existing fossil-fired, gas and vapor cycle powerplants was confirmed; however, economic viability of steam cycle retrofit was found to be dependent on the thermodynamic and operational characteristics of the existing powerplant.

Effects of Space Weather on Biomedical Parameters during the Solar Activity Cycles 23-24.

PubMed

Ragul'skaya, M V; Rudenchik, E A; Chibisov, S M; Gromozova, E N

2015-06-01

The results of long-term (1998-2012) biomedical monitoring of the biotropic effects of space weather are discussed. A drastic change in statistical distribution parameters in the middle of 2005 was revealed that did not conform to usual sinusoidal distribution of the biomedical data reflecting changes in the number of solar spots over a solar activity cycle. The dynamics of space weather of 2001-2012 is analyzed. The authors hypothesize that the actual change in statistical distributions corresponds to the adaptation reaction of the biosphere to nonstandard geophysical characteristics of the 24th solar activity cycle and the probable long-term decrease in solar activity up to 2067.

Ground-Level Solar Cosmic Ray Data from Solar Cycle 19

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shea, M. A.

2003-01-01

The purpose of this grant was to locate, catalog, and assemble, in standard computer format, ground-level solar cosmic ray data acquired by cosmic ray detectors for selected events in the 19th solar cycle. The events for which we initially proposed to obtain these data were for the events of 23 February 1956,4 May 1960, 12 and 15 November 1960 and 18 and 20 July 1961. These were the largest events of the 19th solar cycle. However, a severe (more than 50%) reduction in the requested funding, required the work effort be limited to neutron monitor data for the 23 February 1956 event and the three major events in 1960.

Energy comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novosel, Urška; Avsec, Jurij

2017-07-01

The combined use of renewable energy and alternative energy systems and better efficiency of energy devices is a promising approach to reduce effects due to global warming in the world. On the basis of first and second law of thermodynamics we could optimize the processes in the energy sector. The presented paper shows the comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant in terms of energy, exergy and life cycle analysis. Solar thermal power plant produces electricity with basic Rankine cycle, using solar tower and solar mirrors to produce high fluid temperature. Heat from the solar system is transferred by using a heat exchanger to Rankine cycle. Both power plants produce hydrogen via electrolysis. The paper shows the global efficiency of the system, regarding production of the energy system.

Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

2001-01-01

Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern Hemisphere at mid and high latitudes also get strongly influenced by the annual cycles of solar heating. The SST influence is largely limited to the oceanic regions of these latitudes; (3) The annual mode of precipitation over Amazonia has an equatorial regime revealing a maxima in the month of March associated with SST, and another maxima in the month of January associated with the solar annual cycles, respectively. The baseline simulation, which has both annual cycles, depicts both annual modes and its rainfall is virtually equal to the sum of those two modes; (4) Rainfall over Sahelian-Africa is significantly reduced (increased) in simulations lacking (invoking) solar irradiation with (without) the annual cycle. In fact, the dominant influence of solar irradiation emerges in almost all monsoonal-land regions: India, Southeast Asia, as well as Australia. The only exception is the Continental United States, where solar annual cycle shows only a relatively minor influence on the annual mode of rainfall.

Carrington cycle 24: the solar chromospheric emission in a historical and stellar perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröder, K.-P.; Mittag, M.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Jack, D.; Hempelmann, A.; González-Pérez, J. N.

2017-09-01

We present the solar S-index record of cycle 24, obtained by the Telescopio Internacional de Guanajuato, Robotico Espectroscopico robotic telescope facility and its high-resolution spectrograph HEROS (R ≈ 20 000), which measures the solar chromospheric Ca II H&K line emission by using moonlight. Our calibration process uses the same set of standard stars as introduced by the Mount Wilson team, thus giving us a direct comparison with their huge body of observations taken between 1966 and 1992, as well as with other cool stars. Carrington cycle 24 activity started from the unusually deep and long minimum 2008/2009, with an S-index average of only 0.154, 0.015 deeper than the one of 1986 (〈S〉 = 0.169). In this respect, the chromospheric radiative losses differ remarkably from the variation of the coronal radio flux F10.7 cm and the sunspot numbers. In addition, the cycle 24 S-amplitude remained small, 0.022 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.024), and so resulted in a very low 2014 maximum of 〈S〉 = 0.176 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.193). We argue that this find is significant, since the Ca II H&K line emission is a good proxy for the solar far-ultraviolet (far-UV) flux, which plays an important role in the heating of the Earth's stratosphere, and we further argue that the solar far-UV flux changes with solar activity much more strongly than the total solar output.

Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

PubMed Central

Ng, Kim Kwee

2016-01-01

An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269

SIMULATION STUDY OF HEMISPHERIC PHASE-ASYMMETRY IN THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shukuya, D.; Kusano, K., E-mail: kusano@nagoya-u.jp

2017-01-20

Observations of the Sun suggest that solar activities systematically create north–south hemispheric asymmetries. For instance, the hemisphere in which sunspot activity is more active tends to switch after the early half of each solar cycle. Svalgaard and Kamide recently pointed out that the time gaps of polar field reversal between the northern and southern hemispheres are simply consequences of the asymmetry of sunspot activity. However, the mechanism underlying the asymmetric feature in solar cycle activity is not yet well understood. In this paper, in order to explain the cause of the asymmetry from the theoretical point of view, we investigatemore » the relationship between the dipole- and quadrupole-type components of the magnetic field in the solar cycle using the mean-field theory based on the flux transport dynamo model. As a result, we found that there are two different attractors of the solar cycle, in which either the north or the south polar field is first reversed, and that the flux transport dynamo model explains well the phase-asymmetry of sunspot activity and the polar field reversal without any ad hoc source of asymmetry.« less

Review of the Two-Step H2O/CO2-Splitting Solar Thermochemical Cycle Based on Zn/ZnO Redox Reactions

PubMed Central

Loutzenhiser, Peter G.; Meier, Anton; Steinfeld, Aldo

2010-01-01

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the work to date on the two‑step solar H2O and/or CO2 splitting thermochemical cycles with Zn/ZnO redox reactions to produce H2 and/or CO, i.e., synthesis gas—the precursor to renewable liquid hydrocarbon fuels. The two-step cycle encompasses: (1) The endothermic dissociation of ZnO to Zn and O2 using concentrated solar energy as the source for high-temperature process heat; and (2) the non-solar exothermic oxidation of Zn with H2O/CO2 to generate H2/CO, respectively; the resulting ZnO is then recycled to the first step. An outline of the underlying science and the technological advances in solar reactor engineering is provided along with life cycle and economic analyses. PMID:28883361

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy N.; Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.

2017-01-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Long dance of the bashful ballerina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiltula, T.; Mursula, K.

2006-02-01

In this letter we extend our earlier analysis of the north-south asymmetry of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) using a recent data set of heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) sector polarities extracted from ground-based magnetic observations. We find that the heliospheric current sheet is similarly southward coned or shifted during the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle in the early part of the studied data interval (1926-1955), as earlier found for the more recent solar cycles. Accordingly, the HCS has been southward shifted; that is, the solar ballerina has been bashful at least during the last 80 years. We also discuss solar cycle 19 which presents a period of a very curious behaviour for the HCS with an exceptionally large HMF toward sector dominance in 1957, the year of cycle 19 maximum, and an equally strong HMF away sector dominance in 1960, the time of final solar polarity reversal.

Simulated space environment tests on cadmium sulfide solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, D. R.; Oman, H.

1971-01-01

Cadmium sulfide (Cu2s - CdS) solar cells were tested under simulated space environmental conditions. Some cells were thermally cycled with illumination from a Xenon-arc solar simulator. A cycle was one hour of illumination followed immediately with one-half hour of darkness. In the light, the cells reached an equilibrium temperature of 60 C (333 K) and in the dark the cell temperature dropped to -120 C (153 K). Other cells were constantly illuminated with a Xenon-arc solar simulator. The equilibrium temperature of these cells was 55 C (328 K). The black vacuum chamber walls were cooled with liquid nitrogen to simulate a space heat sink. Chamber pressure was maintained at 0.000001 torr or less. Almost all of the solar cells tested degraded in power when exposed to a simulated space environment of either thermal cycling or constant illumination. The cells tested the longest were exposed to 10.050 thermal cycles.

Solar activity across the scales: from small-scale quiet-Sun dynamics to magnetic activity cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitiashvili, I.; Collins, N.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.; Wray, A. A.

2017-12-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Reinforcement of double dynamo waves as a source of solar activity and its prediction on millennium timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popova, E.; Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Zharkov, S.

2016-12-01

Using the principal components of solar magnetic field variations derived from the synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) (Zharkova et al, 2015) we confirm our previous prediction of the upcoming Maunder minimum to occur in cycles 25-27, or in 2020-2055. We also use a summary curve of the two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations (or two dynamo waves) to extrapolate solar activity backwards to the three millennia and to compare it with relevant historic and Holocene data. Extrapolation of the summary curve confirms the eight grand cycles of 350-400-years superimposed on 22 year-cycles caused by beating effect of the two dynamo waves generated in the two (deep and shallow) layers of the solar interior. The grand cycles in different periods comprise a different number of individual 22-year cycles; the longer the grand cycles the larger number of 22 year cycles and the smaller their amplitudes. We also report the super-grand cycle of about 2000 years often found in solas activity with spectral analysis. Furthermore, the summary curve reproduces a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past: the recent Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), Dalton minimum (1790-1815), Wolf minimum (1200), Homeric minimum (800-900 BC), the Medieval Warmth Period (900-1200), the Roman Warmth Period (400-10BC) and so on. Temporal variations of these dynamo waves are modelled with the two layer mean dynamo model with meridional circulation revealing a remarkable resemblance of the butterfly diagram to the one derived for the last Maunder minimum in 17 century and predicting the one for the upcoming Maunder minimum in 2020-2055.

Solar wind plasma periodicities observed at 1 AU by IMP 8

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paularena, K. I.; Szabo, A.; Lazarus, A. J.

1995-01-01

The IMP 8 spacecraft has been in Earth orbit since 1973, gathering plasma data over one complete 22-year solar cycle. These data are being examined to look for periodicities at time scales ranging from several hours to the entire span of the data set. A 1.3-year periodicity in the radial speed observed by IMP 8 and Voyager 2 has already been reported for the years from 1987 to 1993. The periodogram method, useful for unevenly sampled data such as the IMP 8 plasma data, has been used to search for other periods. It is interesting to note that the 13-year period is not present in the out-of-the-ecliptic component of the velocity (Vz), although a 1-year period is very obvious both visually and on the periodogram. Both components show a very strong peak associated with the 11-year solar cycle variation. This work will be extended to the thermal speed (a measure of the wind's temperature) and density, although the frequent correlations between these parameters and the velocity are expected to cause similar results. Additionally, the fine resolution data will be examined for shorter time periods than are visible using the hourly average data which are appropriate for longer periods. A comparison with periods observed at other spacecraft may also be made.

Construction of a century solar chromosphere data set for solar activity related research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ganghua; Wang, Xiao Fan; Yang, Xiao; Liu, Suo; Zhang, Mei; Wang, Haimin; Liu, Chang; Xu, Yan; Tlatov, Andrey; Demidov, Mihail; Borovik, Aleksandr; Golovko, Aleksey

2017-06-01

This article introduces our ongoing project "Construction of a Century Solar Chromosphere Data Set for Solar Activity Related Research". Solar activities are the major sources of space weather that affects human lives. Some of the serious space weather consequences, for instance, include interruption of space communication and navigation, compromising the safety of astronauts and satellites, and damaging power grids. Therefore, the solar activity research has both scientific and social impacts. The major database is built up from digitized and standardized film data obtained by several observatories around the world and covers a time span of more than 100 years. After careful calibration, we will develop feature extraction and data mining tools and provide them together with the comprehensive database for the astronomical community. Our final goal is to address several physical issues: filament behavior in solar cycles, abnormal behavior of solar cycle 24, large-scale solar eruptions, and sympathetic remote brightenings. Significant signs of progress are expected in data mining algorithms and software development, which will benefit the scientific analysis and eventually advance our understanding of solar cycles.

Satellite-based trends of solar radiation and cloud parameters in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeifroth, Uwe; Bojanowski, Jedrzej S.; Clerbaux, Nicolas; Manara, Veronica; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trentmann, Jörg; Walawender, Jakub P.; Hollmann, Rainer

2018-04-01

Solar radiation is the main driver of the Earth's climate. Measuring solar radiation and analysing its interaction with clouds are essential for the understanding of the climate system. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates satellite-based, high-quality climate data records, with a focus on the energy balance and water cycle. Here, multiple of these data records are analyzed in a common framework to assess the consistency in trends and spatio-temporal variability of surface solar radiation, top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation and cloud fraction. This multi-parameter analysis focuses on Europe and covers the time period from 1992 to 2015. A high correlation between these three variables has been found over Europe. An overall consistency of the climate data records reveals an increase of surface solar radiation and a decrease in top-of-atmosphere reflected radiation. In addition, those trends are confirmed by negative trends in cloud cover. This consistency documents the high quality and stability of the CM SAF climate data records, which are mostly derived independently from each other. The results of this study indicate that one of the main reasons for the positive trend in surface solar radiation since the 1990's is a decrease in cloud coverage even if an aerosol contribution cannot be completely ruled out.

Application of solar energy to air conditioning systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nash, J. M.; Harstad, A. J.

1976-01-01

The results of a survey of solar energy system applications of air conditioning are summarized. Techniques discussed are both solar powered (absorption cycle and the heat engine/Rankine cycle) and solar related (heat pump). Brief descriptions of the physical implications of various air conditioning techniques, discussions of status, proposed technological improvements, methods of utilization and simulation models are presented, along with an extensive bibliography of related literature.

Quasi-periodic changes in the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays for 1965-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modzelewska, R.; Alania, M. V.

2018-01-01

Aims: We study features of the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) for 1965-2014 (almost five solar cycles, cycles 20-24). We analyze the 27-day variations of the 2D GCR anisotropy in the ecliptic plane and the north-south anisotropy normal to the ecliptic plane. We study the dependence of the 27-day variation of the 3D GCR anisotropy on the solar cycle and solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the 27-day variations of the GCR intensity and anisotropy can be used as an important tool to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. Methods: We used the components Ar, Aϕ and At of the 3D GCR anisotropy that were found based on hourly data of neutron monitors (NMs) and muon telescopes (MTs) using the harmonic analyses and spectrographic methods. We corrected the 2D diurnal ( 24-h) variation of the GCR intensity for the influence of the Earth magnetic field. We derived the north-south component of the GCR anisotropy based on the GG index, which is calculated as the difference in GCR intensities of the Nagoya multidirectional MTs. Results: We show that the behavior of the 27-day variation of the 3D anisotropy verifies a stable long-lived active heliolongitude on the Sun. This illustrates the usefulness of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy as a unique proxy to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. We distinguish a tendency of the 22-yr changes in amplitude of the 27-day variation of the 2D anisotropy that is connected with the solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the north-south component of the anisotropy vary with the 11-yr solar cycle, but a dependence of the solar magnetic polarity can hardly be recognized. We show that the 27-day recurrences of the GG index and the At component are highly positively correlated, and both are highly correlated with the By component of the heliospheric magnetic field.

Solar Cycle Variability and Grand Minima Induced by Joy's Law Scatter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark S.

2017-08-01

The strength of the solar cycle varies from one cycle to another in an irregular manner and the extreme example of this irregularity is the Maunder minimum when Sun produced only a few spots for several years. We explore the cause of these variabilities using a 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with flux, tilt angle, and time of emergence all obtain from their observed distributions. The dynamo growth is limited by a tilt quenching.The randomnesses in the BMR emergences make the poloidal field unequal and eventually cause an unequal solar cycle. When observed fluctuations of BMR tilts around Joy's law, i.e., a standard deviation of 15 degrees, are considered, our model produces a variation in the solar cycle comparable to the observed solar cycle variability. Tilt scatter also causes occasional Maunder-like grand minima, although the observed scatter does not reproduce correct statistics of grand minima. However, when we double the tilt scatter, we find grand minima consistent with observations. Importantly, our dynamo model can operate even during grand minima with only a few BMRs, without requiring any additional alpha effect.

A solar cycle timing predictor - The latitude of active regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1990-01-01

A 'Spoerer butterfly' method is used to examine solar cycle 22. It is shown from the latitude of active regions that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 + or - 8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989.

Solar-powered air-conditioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, D. C.; Rousseau, J.

1977-01-01

Report focuses on recent study on development of solar-powered residential air conditioners and is based on selected literature through 1975. Its purposes are to characterize thermal and mechanical systems that might be useful in development of Rankine-cycle approach to solar cooling and assessment of a Lithium Bromide/Water absorption cycle system.

Effects of Solar UV Radiation and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

EPA Science Inventory

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions...

TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu

2013-08-20

Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make itmore » timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier HCS in the north than the south, associated with the early reversal of the polar magnetic field in the north relative to the south.« less

Fifteen years in the high-energy life of the solar-type star HD 81809. XMM-Newton observations of a stellar activity cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlando, S.; Favata, F.; Micela, G.; Sciortino, S.; Maggio, A.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Robrade, J.; Mittag, M.

2017-09-01

Context. The modulation of the activity level of solar-like stars is commonly revealed by cyclic variations in their chromospheric indicators, such as the Ca II H&K S-index, similarly to what is observed in our Sun. However, while the variation of solar activity is also reflected in the cyclical modulation of its coronal X-ray emission, similar behavior has only been discovered in a few stars other than the Sun. Aims: The data set of the long-term XMM-Newton monitoring program of HD 81809 is analyzed to study its X-ray cycle, investigate if the latter is related to the chromospheric cycle, infer the structure of the corona of HD 81809, and explore if the coronal activity of HD 81809 can be ascribed to phenomena similar to solar activity and, therefore, considered an extension of the solar case. Methods: We analyzed the observations of HD 81809 performed with XMM-Newton with a regular cadence of six months from 2001 to 2016, which represents one of the longest available observational baseline ( 15 yr) for a solar-like star with a well-studied chromospheric cycle (with a period of 8 yr). We investigated the modulation of coronal luminosity and temperature and its relation with the chromospheric cycle. We interpreted the data in terms of a mixture of solar-like coronal regions, adopting a method originally proposed to study the Sun as an X-ray star. Results: The observations show a well-defined regular cyclic modulation of the X-ray luminosity that reflects the activity level of HD 81809. The data covers approximately two cycles of coronal activity; the modulation has an amplitude of a factor of 5 (excluding evident flares, as in the June 2002 observation) and a period of 7.3 ± 1.5 yr, which is consistent with that of the chromospheric cycle. We demonstrate that the corona of HD 81809 can be interpreted as an extension of the solar case and can be modeled with a mixture of solar-like coronal regions along the whole cycle. The activity level is mainly determined by varying coverage of very bright active regions, similar to cores of active regions observed in the Sun. Evidence of unresolved significant flaring activity is present especially in the proximity of cycle maxima.

42 years of continuous observations of the Solar 1 diameter from 1974 to 2015 - What do they forecast.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humberto Andrei, Alexandre; Penna, Jucira; Boscardin, Sergio; Papa, Andres R. R.; Garcia, Marcos Antonio; Sigismondi, Costantino

2016-07-01

Several research groups in the world developed observational programs for the Sun in order to measure its apparent diameter over time with dedicated instruments, called solar astrolabes, since 1974. Their data have been gathered in several observing stations connected in the R2S3 (Réseau de Suivi au Sol du Rayon Solaire) network and through reciprocal visits and exchanges: Nice/Calern Observatoire/France, Rio de Janeiro Observatório Nacional/Brazil, Observatório de São Paulo IAGUSP/Brazil, Observatório Abrahão de Moraes IAGUSP/Brazil, Antalya Observatory/Turkey, San Fernando/Spain. Since all the optics and data treatment of the solar astrolabes was the same, from the oldest, with a single fixed objective prism, to the newest, with an angle variable objective prism and digital image acquisition, their results could be put together. Each instrument had its own density filter with a prismatic effect responsible for a particular shift. Thus, identical data gathering and just a different prismatic shift, enabled to reconcile all those series by using the common stretches and derive a single additive constant to place each one onto a common average. By doing so, although the value itself of the ground observed solar diameter is lost, its variations are determined over 35 years. On the combined series of the ground observed solar diameter a modulation with the 11 years main solar cycle is evident. However when such modulation is removed, both from the solar diameter compound series and from the solar activity series (as given by the sunspots count), a very strong anticorrelation is revealed. This suggested a larger diameter for the forthcoming cycles. This was very well verified for solar cycle 23, and correctly forecasted for cycle 24,in a behavior similar to that on the Minima of Dalton and Maunder. The ground monitoring keeps being routinely followed at Observatório Nacional in Rio de Janeiro, now using the Solar Heliometer, specially built to this end . The Heliometer has the same focal length and aperture of the earlier solar astrolabes, and the diameter determination uses the same physical and mathematical definition of the solar limb. Therefore the same robust, no-hypothesis, simple combination by an adding constant, can be used to include the Heliometer measurements along the previous long, continuous series. As a result the series of measurements of the variation of the solar diameter reaches 42 years, and covers also the solar cycle 24. In this paper we review all the individual series chief elements, as well as the calculation and values of the adding constants. We show the earlier comparison that lead to an anticorrelation at 0.867 to the solar activity record, when the 11 years modulation is expurgate, and exhibits an impressively accurate description of cycle 23. On the strength of such successful analysis we employ the new longer series to discuss the current solar cycle 24 and forecast for the following solar cycle 25. We thus advocate in favor of continued and continuous ground measurements of the solar diameter, on the usefulness of making these results available to the scientific community at large, and on the matter-of-fact, real variations of the solar diameter on long term time periods and/or local places on the Sun, in this case possibly associated to major magnetism driven solar transients.

Solar Cycle Variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, C. C. J.; Chang, L. C.; Liang, M. C.; Qian, L.; Yue, J.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2017-12-01

This work aims to present the solar cycle variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere region. These observations are then compared to SD-WACCM outputs of CO2 and H2O in order to understand their physical mechanisms. After which, we attempt to model their solar cycle variations using the default TIME-GCM and the TIME-GCM with MERRA reanalysis as lower-boundary conditions. Comparing the outputs of the default TIME-GCM and TIME-GCM with MERRA will give us insight into the importance of solar forcing and lower atmospheric forcing on the solar cycle variations of CO2 and H2O. The solar cycle influence in the parameters are calculated by doing a multiple linear regression with the F10.7 index. The solar cycle of SABER CO2 is reliable above 1e-2 mb and below 1e-3 mb. Preliminary results from the observations show that SABER CO2 has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. MLS H2O is reliable until 1e-2. Preliminary results from the observations show that MLS H2O also has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. Both SD-WACCM and the default TIME-GCM reproduce these stronger anomalies over the winter hemisphere. An analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM and default TIME-GCM then reveal that for CO2, the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to stronger downward transport over the winter hemisphere. For H2O, an analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM reveal that the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to both stronger downward transport and stronger photochemical loss. On the other hand, in the default TIME-GCM, the stronger winter anomaly in H2O may only be attributed to stronger downward transport. For both models, the stronger downward transport is attributed to enhanced stratospheric polar winter jet during solar maximum. Future work will determine whether setting the lower boundary conditions of TIME-GCM with MERRA will improve the match between TIME-GCM and SD-WACCM. Also, with the TIME-GCM outputs, the influence of these MLT circulation changes on the ionospheric winter anomaly will be determined.

RECOVERY ACT: MULTIMODAL IMAGING FOR SOLAR CELL MICROCRACK DETECTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janice Hudgings; Lawrence Domash

2012-02-08

Undetected microcracks in solar cells are a principal cause of failure in service due to subsequent weather exposure, mechanical flexing or diurnal temperature cycles. Existing methods have not been able to detect cracks early enough in the production cycle to prevent inadvertent shipment to customers. This program, sponsored under the DOE Photovoltaic Supply Chain and Cross-Cutting Technologies program, studied the feasibility of quantifying surface micro-discontinuities by use of a novel technique, thermoreflectance imaging, to detect surface temperature gradients with very high spatial resolution, in combination with a suite of conventional imaging methods such as electroluminescence. The project carried out laboratorymore » tests together with computational image analyses using sample solar cells with known defects supplied by industry sources or DOE National Labs. Quantitative comparisons between the effectiveness of the new technique and conventional methods were determined in terms of the smallest detectable crack. Also the robustness of the new technique for reliable microcrack detection was determined at various stages of processing such as before and after antireflectance treatments. An overall assessment is that the new technique compares favorably with existing methods such as lock-in thermography or ultrasonics. The project was 100% completed in Sept, 2010. A detailed report of key findings from this program was published as: Q.Zhou, X.Hu, K.Al-Hemyari, K.McCarthy, L.Domash and J.Hudgings, High spatial resolution characterization of silicon solar cells using thermoreflectance imaging, J. Appl. Phys, 110, 053108 (2011).« less

Temporal Variability of Atomic Hydrogen From the Mesopause to the Upper Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Solomon, Stan S.; Smith, Anne K.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Hunt, Linda A.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Liu, Hanli; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Vitt, Francis M.

2018-01-01

We investigate atomic hydrogen (H) variability from the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, on time scales of solar cycle, seasonal, and diurnal, using measurements made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics satellite, and simulations by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended (WACCM-X). In the mesopause region (85 to 95 km), the seasonal and solar cycle variations of H simulated by WACCM-X are consistent with those from SABER observations: H density is higher in summer than in winter, and slightly higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum. However, mesopause region H density from the Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter (National Research Laboratory Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter 00 (NRLMSISE-00)) empirical model has reversed seasonal variation compared to WACCM-X and SABER. From the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, H density simulated by WACCM-X switches its solar cycle variation twice, and seasonal dependence once, and these changes of solar cycle and seasonal variability occur in the lower thermosphere ( 95 to 130 km), whereas H from NRLMSISE-00 does not change solar cycle and seasonal dependence from the mesopause through the thermosphere. In the upper thermosphere (above 150 km), H density simulated by WACCM-X is higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum, higher in winter than in summer, and also higher during nighttime than daytime. The amplitudes of these variations are on the order of factors of 10, 2, and 2, respectively. This is consistent with NRLMSISE-00.

Solar Cycle Dependence of the Diurnal Anisotropy of 0.6 TeV Cosmic-ray Intensity Observed with the Matsushiro Underground Muon Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munakata, K.; Mizoguchi, Y.; Kato, C.; Yasue, S.; Mori, S.; Takita, M.; Kóta, J.

2010-04-01

We analyze the temporal variation of the diurnal anisotropy of sub-TeV cosmic-ray intensity observed with the Matsushiro (Japan) underground muon detector over two full solar activity cycles in 1985-2008. We find an anisotropy component in the solar diurnal anisotropy superimposed on the Compton-Getting anisotropy due to Earth's orbital motion around the Sun. The phase of this additional anisotropy is almost constant at ~15:00 local solar time corresponding to the direction perpendicular to the average interplanetary magnetic field at Earth's orbit, while the amplitude varies between a maximum (0.043% ± 0.002%) and minimum (~0.008% ± 0.002%) in a clear correlation with the solar activity. We find a significant time lag between the temporal variations of the amplitude and the sunspot number (SSN) and obtain the best correlation coefficient of +0.74 with the SSN delayed for 26 months. We suggest that this anisotropy might be interpreted in terms of the energy change due to the solar-wind-induced electric field expected for galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) crossing the wavy neutral sheet. The average amplitude of the sidereal diurnal variation over the entire period is 0.034% ± 0.003%, which is roughly one-third of the amplitude reported from air shower and deep-underground muon experiments monitoring multi-TeV GCR intensity suggesting a significant attenuation of the anisotropy due to the solar modulation. We find, on the other hand, only a weak positive correlation between the sidereal diurnal anisotropy and the solar activity cycle in which the amplitude in the "active" solar activity epoch is about twice the amplitude in the "quiet" solar activity epoch. This implies that only one-fourth of the total attenuation varies in correlation with the solar activity cycle and/or the solar magnetic cycle. We finally examine the temporal variation of the "single-band valley depth" (SBVD) quoted by the Milagro experiment and, in contrast with recent Milagro's report, we find no steady increase in the Matsushiro observations in a seven-year period between 2000 and 2007. We suggest, therefore, that the steady increase of the SBVD reported by the Milagro experiment is not caused by the decreasing solar modulation in the declining phase of the 23rd solar activity cycle.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

1994-01-01

We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

2002-07-01

In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

Signature of a possible relationship between the maximum CME speed index and the critical frequencies of the F1 and F2 ionospheric layers: Data analysis for a mid-latitude ionospheric station during the solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcik, Ali; Ozguc, Atila; Yiǧit, Erdal; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Donmez, Burcin

2018-06-01

We analyze temporal variations of two solar indices, the monthly mean Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the International Sunspot Number (ISSN) as well as the monthly median ionospheric critical frequencies (foF1, and foF2) for the time period of 1996-2013, which covers the entire solar cycle 23 and the ascending branch of the cycle 24. We found that the maximum of foF1 and foF2 occurred respectively during the first and second maximum of the ISSN solar activity index in the solar cycle 23. We compared these data sets by using the cross-correlation and hysteresis analysis and found that both foF1 and foF2 show higher correlation with ISSN than the MCMESI during the investigated time period, but when significance levels are considered correlation coefficients between the same indices become comparable. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the agreement between these data sets (solar indices and ionospheric critical frequencies) is better pronounced during the ascending phases of solar cycles, while they display significant deviations during the descending phase. We conclude that there exists a signature of a possible relationship between MCMESI and foF1 and foF2, which means that MCMESI could be used as a possible indicator of solar and geomagnetic activity, even though other investigations are needed.

Technology for Bayton-cycle powerplants using solar and nuclear energy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, R. E.

1986-01-01

Brayton cycle gas turbines have the potential to use either solar heat or nuclear reactors for generating from tens of kilowatts to tens of megawatts of power in space, all this from a single technology for the power generating system. Their development for solar energy dynamic power generation for the space station could be the first step in an evolution of such powerplants for a very wide range of applications. At the low power level of only 10 kWe, a power generating system has already demonstrated overall efficiency of 0.29 and operated 38 000 hr. Tests of improved components show that these components would raise that efficiency to 0.32, a value twice that demonstrated by any alternate concept. Because of this high efficiency, solar Brayton cycle power generators offer the potential to increase power per unit of solar collector area to levels exceeding four times that from photovoltaic powerplants using present technology for silicon solar cells. The technologies for solar mirrors and heat receivers are reviewed and assessed. This Brayton technology for solar powerplants is equally suitable for use with the nuclear reactors. The available long time creep data on the tantalum alloy ASTAR-811C show that such Brayton cycles can evolve to cycle peak temperatures of 1500 K (2240 F). And this same technology can be extended to generate 10 to 100 MW in space by exploiting existing technology for terrestrial gas turbines in the fields of both aircraft propulsion and stationary power generation.

Reconciling solar and stellar magnetic cycles with nonlinear dynamo simulations.

PubMed

Strugarek, A; Beaudoin, P; Charbonneau, P; Brun, A S; do Nascimento, J-D

2017-07-14

The magnetic fields of solar-type stars are observed to cycle over decadal periods-11 years in the case of the Sun. The fields originate in the turbulent convective layers of stars and have a complex dependency upon stellar rotation rate. We have performed a set of turbulent global simulations that exhibit magnetic cycles varying systematically with stellar rotation and luminosity. We find that the magnetic cycle period is inversely proportional to the Rossby number, which quantifies the influence of rotation on turbulent convection. The trend relies on a fundamentally nonlinear dynamo process and is compatible with the Sun's cycle and those of other solar-type stars. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes During Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, Sergey; Deland, Matthew

2014-01-01

We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by approximately 0.6% +/- 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% +/- 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at lambda approximately or greater than 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

Long-term Trends in the Solar Wind Proton Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E.

2016-11-01

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965-2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature (T p) and speed (V p) and between the proton density (n p) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature-speed (T p-V p) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density-speed (n p-V p) relationship is not linear like the T p-V p relationship, we perform power-law fits for n p-V p. The exponent (steepness in the n p-V p relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n p for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n p is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n p variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n p-V p exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T p and V p data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 22-24: Analysis and physical interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalinin, M. S.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Krainev, M. B.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevsky, N. S.; Starodubtsev, S. A.

2017-09-01

This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd-24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008-2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K ij ∝ R 2-μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd-24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided.

Comparing the solar magnetic field in the corona and in the inner heliosphere during solar cycles 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

2009-04-01

We compare the open solar magnetic field estimated by the PFSS model based on the WSO photospheric field observations, with the inner heliospheric magnetic field. We trace the observed radial HMF into the coronal PFSS boundary at 2.5 solar radii using the observed solar wind velocity, and determine the PFSS model field at the line-of-sight footpoint. Comparing the two field values, we calculate the power n of the apparent decrease of the radial field. According to expectations based on Maxwell's equations, also reproduced by Parker's HMF model, the radial HMF field should decrease with n=2. However, comparison gives considerably lower values of n, indicating the effect of HCS in the PFSS model and the possible superexpansion. The n values vary with solar cycle, being roughly 1.3-1.4 at minima and about 1.7 at maxima. Interestingly, the n values for the two HMF sectors show systematic differences in the late declining to minimum phase, with smaller n values for the HMF sector dominant in the northern hemisphere. This is in agreement with the smaller field value in the northern hemisphere and the southward shifted HCS, summarized by the concept of the bashful ballerina. We also find that the values of n during the recent years, in the late declining phase of solar cycle 23, are significantly larger than during the same phase of the previous cycles. This agrees with the exceptionally large tilt of the solar dipole at the end of cycle 23. We also find that the bashful ballerina appears even during SC 23 but the related hemispheric differences are smaller than during the previous cycles.

Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Solar UV Radiation, and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment...

Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

PubMed Central

Zurbenko, Igor

2014-01-01

Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

Hemispheric Coupling: Comparing Dynamo Simulations and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, A. A.; Charbonneau, P.; Passos, D.

2014-12-01

Numerical simulations that reproduce solar-like magnetic cycles can be used to generate long-term statistics. The variations in north-south hemispheric solar cycle synchronicity and amplitude produced in simulations has not been widely compared to observations. The observed limits on solar cycle amplitude and phase asymmetry show that hemispheric sunspot area production is no more than 20 % asymmetric for cycles 17-23 and that phase lags do not exceed 20 % (or two years) of the total cycle period, as determined from Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot data. Several independent studies have found a long-term trend in phase values as one hemisphere leads the other for, on average, four cycles. Such persistence in phase is not indicative of a stochastic phenomenon. We compare these observational findings to the magnetic cycle found in a numerical simulation of solar convection recently produced with the EULAG-MHD model. This long "millennium simulation" spans more than 1600 years and generated 40 regular, sunspot-like cycles. While the simulated cycle length is too long (˜40 yrs) and the toroidal bands remain at too high of latitudes (>30°), some solar-like aspects of hemispheric asymmetry are reproduced. The model is successful at reproducing the synchrony of polarity inversions and onset of cycle as the simulated phase lags do not exceed 20 % of the cycle period. The simulated amplitude variations between the north and south hemispheres are larger than those observed in the Sun, some up to 40 %. An interesting note is that the simulations also show that one hemisphere can persistently lead the other for several successive cycles, placing an upper bound on the efficiency of transequatorial magnetic coupling mechanisms. These include magnetic diffusion, cross-equatorial mixing within latitudinally-elongated convective rolls (a.k.a. "banana cells") and transequatorial meridional flow cells. One or more of these processes may lead to magnetic flux cancellation whereby the oppositely directed fields come in close proximity and cancel each other across the magnetic equator late in the solar cycle. We discuss the discrepancies between model and observations and the constraints they pose on possible mechanisms of hemispheric coupling.

Solar cycle variation of Mars exospheric temperatures: Critical review of available dayside measurements and recent model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougher, Stephen; Huestis, David

The responses of the Martian dayside thermosphere to solar flux variations (on both solar rotation and solar cycle timescales) have been the subject of considerable debate and study for many years. Available datasets include: Mariner 6,7,9 (UVS dayglow), Viking Lander 1-2 (UAMS densities upon descent), several aerobraking campaigns (MGS, Odyssey, MRO densities), and Mars Express (SPICAM dayglow). Radio Science derived plasma scale heights near the ionospheric peak can be used to derive neutral temperatures in this region (only); such values are not applicable to exobase heights (e.g. Forbes et al. 2008; Bougher et al. 2009). Recently, densities and temperatures derived from precise orbit determination of the MGS spacecraft (1999-2005) have been used to establish the responses of Mars' exosphere to long-term solar flux variations (Forbes et al., 2008). From this multi-year dataset, dayside exospheric temperatures weighted toward moderate southern latitudes are found to change by about 120 K over the solar cycle. However, the applicability of these drag derived exospheric temperatures to near solar minimum conditions is suspect (e.g Bruinsma and Lemoine, 2002). Finally, re-evaluation of production mechanisms for UV dayglow emissions implies revised values for exospheric temperatures (e.g. Simon et al., 2009; Huestis et al. 2010). Several processes are known to influence Mars' exospheric temperatures and their variability (Bougher et al., 1999; 2000; 2009). Solar EUV heating and its variations with solar fluxes received at Mars, CO2 15-micron cooling, molecular thermal conduction, and hydrodynamic heating/cooling associated with global dynamics all contribute to regulate dayside thermo-spheric temperatures. Poorly measured dayside atomic oxygen abundances render CO2 cooling rates uncertain at the present time. However, global thermospheric circulation models can be exercised for conditions spanning the solar cycle and Mars seasons to address the relative roles of these processes in driving observed variations in dayside exospheric temperatures. Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) simulations and resulting exo-spheric temperatures will be presented and compared with assimilated temperatures collected from all these available measurements over the solar cycle. It is important to match measure-ments at dayside local times and latitudes for specific seasons with corresponding MTGCM simulated outputs. Calculated local heat budgets and their variations illustrate the changes required to reproduce solar cycle variations in exospheric temperatures. The ability to success-fully predict solar cycle responses of the Martian upper atmosphere is important for simulations of present-day Mars volatile escape rates.

Hubble Space Telescope solar cell module thermal cycle test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Alexander; Edge, Ted; Willowby, Douglas; Gerlach, Lothar

1992-01-01

The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array consists of two identical double roll-out wings designed after the Hughes flexible roll-up solar array (FRUSA) and was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) to meet specified HST power output requirements at the end of 2 years, with a functional lifetime of 5 years. The requirement that the HST solar array remain functional both mechanically and electrically during its 5-year lifetime meant that the array must withstand 30,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycles between approximately +100 and -100 C. In order to evaluate the ability of the array to meet this requirement, an accelerated thermal cycle test in vacuum was conducted at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), using two 128-cell solar array modules which duplicated the flight HST solar array. Several other tests were performed on the modules. The thermal cycle test was interrupted after 2,577 cycles, and a 'cold-roll' test was performed on one of the modules in order to evaluate the ability of the flight array to survive an emergency deployment during the dark (cold) portion of an orbit. A posttest static shadow test was performed on one of the modules in order to analyze temperature gradients across the module. Finally, current in-flight electrical performance data from the actual HST flight solar array will be tested.

Influence of Solar Variability on the North Atlantic / European Sector.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, L. J.

2016-12-01

The 11year solar cycle signal in December-January-February averaged mean-sea-level pressure and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870-2010 (140 years; 13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3-4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660-2010 (350 years; 32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0-2 year lags and one via the mixd-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3-4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic / European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at 1-year lag that originates promarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiang, N. B.; Qu, Z. N., E-mail: znqu@ynao.ac.cn

The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) analysis is utilized to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of the solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) observed at the Wilcox Solar Observatory of Stanford University from 1975 to 2014, and then we analyze the periods of these IMFs as well as the relation of IMFs (SMMF) with some solar activity indices. The two special rotation cycles of 26.6 and 28.5 days should be derived from different magnetic flux elements in the SMMF. The rotation cycle of the weak magnetic flux element in the SMMF is 26.6 days, while the rotation cycle of themore » strong magnetic flux element in the SMMF is 28.5 days. The two rotation periods of the structure of the interplanetary magnetic field near the ecliptic plane are essentially related to weak and strong magnetic flux elements in the SMMF, respectively. The rotation cycle of weak magnetic flux in the SMMF did not vary over the last 40 years because the weak magnetic flux element derived from the weak magnetic activity on the full disk is not influenced by latitudinal migration. Neither the internal rotation of the Sun nor the solar magnetic activity on the disk (including the solar polar fields) causes the annual variation of SMMF. The variation of SMMF at timescales of a solar cycle is more related to weak magnetic activity on the full solar disk.« less

Solar Variability from 240 to 1750 nm in Terms of Faculae Brightening and Sunspot Darkening from SCIAMACHY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

2009-08-01

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.

SOLAR VARIABILITY FROM 240 TO 1750 nm IN TERMS OF FACULAE BRIGHTENING AND SUNSPOT DARKENING FROM SCIAMACHY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

2009-08-01

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variationsmore » above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.« less

Solar Energetic Particle Composition over Two Solar Cycles as Observed by the Ulysses/HISCALE and ACE/EPAM Pulse Height Analyzers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patterson, J. D.; Madanian, H.; Manweiler, J. W.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

2017-12-01

We present the compositional variation in the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) population in the inner heliosphere over two solar cycles using data from the Ulysses Heliospheric Instrument for Spectra, Composition, and Anisotropy at Low Energies (HISCALE) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM). The Ulysses mission was active from late 1990 to mid-2009 in a heliopolar orbit inclined by 80° with a perihelion of 1.3 AU and an aphelion of 5.4 AU. The ACE mission has been active since its launch in late 1997 and is in a halo orbit about L1. These two missions provide a total of 27 years of continuous observation in the inner heliosphere with twelve years of simultaneous observation. HISCALE and EPAM data provide species-resolved differential flux and density of SEP between 0.5-5 MeV/nuc. Several ion species (He, C, O, Ne, Si, Fe) are identified using the Pulse Height Analyzer (PHA) system of the Composition Aperture for both instruments. The He density shows a noticeable increase at high solar activity followed by a moderate drop at the quiet time of the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24. The density of heavier ions (i.e. O and Fe) change minimally with respect to the F10.7 index variations however, certain energy-specific count rates decrease during solar minimum. With Ulysses and ACE observing in different regions of the inner heliosphere, there are significant latitudinal differences in how the O/He ratios vary with the solar cycle. At solar minimum, there is reasonable agreement between the observations from both instruments. At solar max 23, the differences in composition over the course of the solar cycle, and as observed at different heliospheric locations can provide insight to the origins of and acceleration processes differentially affecting solar energetic ions.

Reduction of Life Cycle CO2 Emission in Public Welfare Facilities Equipped with PV/Solar Heat/Cogeneration System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oke, Shinichiro; Kemmoku, Yoshishige; Takikawa, Hirofumi; Sakakibara, Tateki

The reduction effect of life cycle CO2 emission is examined in case of introducing a PV/solar heat/cogeneration system into public welfare facilities(hotel and hospital). Life cycle CO2 emission is calculated as the sum of that when operating and that when manufacturing equipments. The system is operated with the dynamic programming method, into which hourly data of electric and heat loads, solar insolation, and atmospheric temperature during a year are input. The proposed system is compared with a conventional system and a cogeneration system. The life cycle CO2 emission of the PV/solar heat/cogeneration system is lower than that of the conventional system by 20% in hotel and by 14% in hospital.

Cosmic ray modulation and radiation dose of aircrews during the solar cycle 24/25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Shoko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2017-04-01

Weak solar activity and high cosmic ray flux during the coming solar cycle are qualitatively anticipated by the recent observations that show the decline in the solar activity levels. We predict the cosmic ray modulation and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude by using the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic ray modulation. Our galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model is based on the variations of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field, and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We reproduce the 22 year variation of the cosmic ray modulation from 1980 to 2015 taking into account the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs. The energy spectra of GCR protons obtained by our model show good agreement with the observations by the Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting magnetic rigidity Spectrometer (BESS) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) except for a discrepancy at the solar maximum. Five-year annual radiation dose around the solar minimum at the solar cycle 24/25 will be approximately 19% higher than that in the last cycle. This is caused by the charge sign dependence of the cosmic ray modulation, such as the flattop profiles in a positive polarity.

Coronal Holes and Magnetic Flux Ropes Interweaving Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowder, Chris; Yeates, Anthony; Leamon, Robert; Qiu, Jiong

2016-10-01

Coronal holes, dark patches observed in solar observations in extreme ultraviolet and x-ray wavelengths, provide an excellent proxy for regions of open magnetic field rooted near the photosphere. Through a multi-instrument approach, including SDO data, we are able to stitch together high resolution maps of coronal hole boundaries spanning the past two solar activity cycles. These observational results are used in conjunction with models of open magnetic field to probe physical solar parameters. Magnetic flux ropes are commonly defined as bundles of solar magnetic field lines, twisting around a common axis. Photospheric surface flows and magnetic reconnection work in conjunction to form these ropes, storing magnetic stresses until eruption. With an automated methodology to identify flux ropes within observationally driven magnetofrictional simulations, we can study their properties in detail. Of particular interest is a solar-cycle length statistical description of eruption rates, spatial distribution, magnetic orientation, flux, and helicity. Coronal hole observations can provide useful data about the distribution of the fast solar wind, with magnetic flux ropes yielding clues as to ejected magnetic field and the resulting space weather geo-effectiveness. With both of these cycle-spanning datasets, we can begin to form a more detailed picture of the evolution and consequences of both sets of solar magnetic features.

Solar causes of strong geomagnetic disturbances during the period 1996—2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejda, Pavel; Bochníček, Josef; Valach, Fridrich; Revallo, Miloš

2017-04-01

The purpose of this research is to assess the contribution of CMEs and CIRs to geomagnetic activity during the period 1996—2013, covering the 23rd solar cycle, the solar minimum between the 23rd and the 24th solar cycles as well as the ascending part of the current 24th solar cycle. Both CMEs and CIRs are capable of driving significant space weather effects on the Earth. Current study is not primarily aimed at construction of prediction models but can contribute to this topic by answering two principal questions: (1) what is the contribution of CME and CIR type solar events to various levels of geomagnetic disturbances and how it varies during the solar cycle (2) how does the successive emergence of CME and CIR events influence the geomagnetic response. Sometimes it can be difficult to assign the response to a particular event properly, especially in the case of several successive events. We noticed that the CIRs appeared to play important role also in years when strongly geoeffective CMEs occurred. An interesting finding, which we have revealed on this subject, concerned the year 2009; then the extremely low geomagnetic activity was probably caused by very slow solar wind from coronal holes along with the rare occurrences of CIRs.

Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macario-Rojas, Alejandro; Smith, Katharine L.; Roberts, Peter C. E.

2018-06-01

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity -14.4% (±19.5%) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted.

Interannual Variations of MLS Carbon Monoxide Induced by Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander

2013-01-01

More than eight years (2004-2012) of carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed. The mesospheric CO, largely produced by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, is sensitive to the solar irradiance variability. The long-term variation of observed mesospheric MLS CO concentrations at high latitudes is likely driven by the solar-cycle modulated UV forcing. Despite of different CO abundances in the southern and northern hemispheric winter, the solar-cycle dependence appears to be similar. This solar signal is further carried down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex. Aura MLS CO is compared with the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) total solar irradiance (TSI) and also with the spectral irradiance in the far ultraviolet (FUV) region from the SORCE Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). Significant positive correlation (up to 0.6) is found between CO and FUVTSI in a large part of the upper atmosphere. The distribution of this positive correlation in the mesosphere is consistent with the expectation of CO changes induced by the solar irradiance variations.

Long-term variation of radar-auroral backscatter and the interplanetary sector structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeoman, T.K.; Burrage, M.D.; Lester, M.

Recurrent variation of geomagnetic activity at the {approximately}27-day solar rotation period and higher harmonics is a well-documented phenomenon. Auroral radar backscatter data from the Sweden and Britain Radar-Auroral Experiment (SABRE) radar provide a continuous time series from 1981 to the present which is a highly sensitive monitor of geomagnetic activity. In this study, Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) dynamic power spectra of SABRE backscatter data from 1981 to 1989, concurrent interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind parameters from 1981 to 1987, and the Kp index since 1932 are examined. Data since 1977 are compared with previously published heliospheric current sheetmore » measurements mapped out from the solar photosphere. Stong periodic behavior is observed in the radar backscatter during the declining phase of solar cycle 21, but this periodicity disappears at the start of solar cycle 22. Similar behavior is observed in earlier solar cycles in the Kp spectra. Details of the radar backscatter, IMF, and solar wind spectra indicate that the solar wind momentum density is the dominant parameter in determining the backscatter periodicity. The temporal evolution of two- and four-sector structures, as predicted by SABRE backscatter spectra, throughout solar cycle 21 generally still agree well with heliospheric current sheet measurements. For one interval, however, there is evidence that evolution of the current sheet has occurred between the photospheric source surface and the Earth.« less

The radial distribution of cosmic rays in the heliosphere at solar maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, F. B.; Fujii, Z.; Heikkila, B.; Lal, N.

2003-08-01

To obtain a more detailed profile of the radial distribution of galactic (GCRs) and anomalous (ACRs) cosmic rays, a unique time in the 11-year solar activity cycle has been selected - that of solar maximum. At this time of minimum cosmic ray intensity a simple, straight-forward normalization technique has been found that allows the cosmic ray data from IMP 8, Pioneer 10 (P-10) and Voyagers 1 and 2 (V1, V2) to be combined for the solar maxima of cycles 21, 22 and 23. This combined distribution reveals a functional form of the radial gradient that varies as G 0/r with G 0 being constant and relatively small in the inner heliosphere. After a transition region between ˜10 and 20 AU, G 0 increases to a much larger value that remains constant between ˜25 and 82 AU. This implies that at solar maximum the changes that produce the 11-year modulation cycle are mainly occurring in the outer heliosphere between ˜15 AU and the termination shock. These observations are not inconsistent with the concept that Global Merged Interaction. regions (GMIRs) are the principal agent of modulation between solar minimum and solar maximum. There does not appear to be a significant change in the amount of heliosheath modulation occurring between the 1997 solar minimum and the cycle 23 solar maximum.

Thin-film Organic-based Solar Cells for Space Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Sheila G.; Harris, Jerry D.; Hepp, Aloysius F.; Anglin, Emily J.; Raffaelle, Ryne P.; Clark, Harry R., Jr.; Gardner, Susan T. P.; Sun, Sam S.

2002-01-01

Recent advances in dye-sensitized and organic polymer solar cells have lead NASA to investigate the potential of these devices for space power generation. Dye-sensitized solar cells were exposed to simulated low-earth orbit conditions and their performance evaluated. All cells were characterized under simulated air mass zero (AM0) illumination. Complete cells were exposed to pressures less than 1 x 10(exp -7) torr for over a month, with no sign of sealant failure or electrolyte leakage. Cells from Solaronix SA were rapid thermal cycled under simulated low-earth orbit conditions. The cells were cycled 100 times from -80 C to 80 C, which is equivalent to 6 days in orbit. The best cell had a 4.6 percent loss in efficiency as a result of the thermal cycling. In a separate project, novel -Bridge-Donor-Bridge- Acceptor- (-BDBA-) type conjugated block copolymer systems have been synthesized and characterized by photoluminescence (PL). In comparison to pristine donor or acceptor, the PL emissions of final -B-D-B-A- block copolymer films were quenched over 99 percent. Effective and efficient photo induced electron transfer and charge separation occurs due to the interfaces of micro phase separated donor and acceptor blocks. The system is very promising for a variety high efficiency light harvesting applications. Under an SBIR contract, fullerene-doped polymer-based photovoltaic devices were fabricated and characterized. The best devices showed overall power efficiencies of approx. 0.14 percent under white light. Devices fabricated from 2 percent solids content solutions in chlorobenzene gave the best results. Presently, device lifetimes are too short to be practical for space applications.

Thin-Film Organic-Based Solar Cells for Space Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Sheila G.; Harris, Jerry D.; Hepp, Aloysius F.; Anglin, Emily J.; Raffaelle, Ryne P.; Clark, Harry R., Jr.; Gardner, Susan T. P.; Sun, Sam S.

2001-01-01

Recent advances in dye-sensitized and organic polymer solar cells have lead NASA to investigate the potential of these devices for space power generation. Dye-sensitaized solar cells were exposed to simulated low-earth orbit conditions and their performance evaluated. All cells were characterized under simulated air mass zero (AM0) illumination. Complete cells were exposed to pressures less than 1 x 10 (exp -7)torr for over a month, with no sign of sealant failure or electrolyte leakage. Cells from Solaronix SA were rapid thermal cycled under simulated low-earth orbit conditions. The cells were cycled 100 times from -80 C to 80 C, which is equivalent to 6 days in orbit. The best cell had a 4.6% loss in efficiency as a result of the thermal cycling. In a separate project, novel -Bridge-Donor-Bridge-Acceptor- (-BDBA-) type conjugated block copolymer systems have been synthesized and characterized by photoluminescence (PL). In comparison to pristine donor or acceptor, the PL emissions of final -B-D-B-A- block copolymer films were quenched over 99%. Effective and efficient photo induced electron transfer and charge separation occurs due to the interfaces of micro phase separated donor and acceptor blocks. The system is very promising for a variety high efficiency light harvesting applications. Under an SBIR contract, fullerene-doped polymer-based photovoltaic devices were fabricated and characterized. The best devices showed overall power efficiencies of approximately 0.14% under white light. Devices fabricated from 2% solids content solutions in chlorobenzene gave the best results. Presently, device lifetimes are too short to be practical for space applications.

The Predictability of Advection-dominated Flux-transport Solar Dynamo Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Sabrina; Fournier, Alexandre; Aubert, Julien

2014-01-01

Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies, we quantify the predictability window of a representative, advection-dominated, flux-transport dynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters through a perturbation analysis. We measure the rate associated with the exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory, which yields a characteristic timescale known as the e-folding time τ e . The e-folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the α-effect, and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional circulation. Comparing the e-folding time with the solar cycle periodicity, we obtain an average estimate for τ e equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations. From a practical point of view, the perturbations analyzed in this work can be interpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical model itself. After reviewing these, we discuss their implications for solar cycle prediction.

Solar Sources and Geospace Consequences of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Observed During Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.; Michalek, G.; Lepping, R. P.

2007-01-01

We present results of a statistical investigation of 99 magnetic clouds (MCs) observed during 1995-2005. The MC-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are faster and wider on the average and originate within +/-30deg from the solar disk center. The solar sources of MCs also followed the butterfly diagram. The correlation between the magnetic field strength and speed of MCs was found to be valid over a much wider range of speeds. The number of south-north (SN) MCs was dominant and decreased with solar cycle, while the number of north-south (NS) MCs increased confirming the odd-cycle behavior. Two-thirds of MCs were geoeffective; the Dst index was highly correlated with speed and magnetic field in MCs as well as their product. Many (55%) fully northward (FN) MCs were geoeffective solely due to their sheaths. The non-geoeffective MCs were slower (average speed approx. 382 km/s), had a weaker southward magnetic field (average approx. -5.2nT), and occurred mostly during the rise phase of the solar activity cycle.

Cross correlation and time-lag between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22 and 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra-Porta, D.

2018-07-01

In the present paper a systematic study is carried out to validate the similarity or co-variability between daily terrestrial cosmic-ray intensity and three parameters of the solar corona evolution, i.e., the number of sunspots and flare index observed in the solar corona and the Ap index for regular magnetic field variations caused by regular solar radiation changes. The study is made for a period including three solar cycles starting with cycle 21 (year 1976) and ending on cycle 23 (year 2008). A cross-correlation analysis was used to establish patterns and dependence of the variables. This study focused on the time lag calculation for these variables and found a maximum of negative correlation over CC1≈ 0.85, CC2≈ 0.75 and CC3≈ 0.63 with an estimation of 181, 156 and 2 days of deviation between maximum/minimum of peaks for the intensity of cosmic rays related with sunspot number, flare index and Ap index regression, respectively.

Solar and terrestrial physics. [effects of solar activities on earth environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The effects of solar radiation on the near space and biomental earth, the upper atmosphere, and the magnetosphere are discussed. Data obtained from the OSO satellites pertaining to the solar cycle variation of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation are analyzed. The effects of solar cycle variation of the characteristics of the solar wind are examined. The fluid mechanics of shock waves and the specific relationship to the characteristics of solar shock waves are investigated. The solar and corpuscular heating of the upper atmosphere is reported based on the findings of the AEROS and NATE experiments. Seasonal variations of the upper atmosphere composition are plotted based on OGO-6 mass spectrometer data.

Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

2010-01-01

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Influence of interplanetary solar wind sector polarity on the ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

liu, jing

2014-05-01

Knowledge of solar sector polarity effects on the ionosphere may provide some clues in understanding of the ionospheric day-to-day variability. A solar-terrestrial connection ranging from solar sector boundary (SB) crossings, geomagnetic disturbance and ionospheric perturbations has been demonstrated. The increases in interplanetary solar wind speed within three days are seen after SB crossings, while the decreases in solar wind dynamic pressure and magnetic field intensity immediately after SB crossings are confirmed by the superposed epoch analysis results. Furthermore, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component turns from northward to southward in March equinox and June solstice as the Earth passes from a solar sector of outward to inward directed magnetic fields, whereas the reverse situation occurs for the transition from toward to away sectors. The F2 region critical frequency (foF2) covering about four solar cycles and total electron content (TEC) during 1998-2011 are utilized to extract the related information, revealing that they are not modified significantly and vary within the range of 15% on average. The responses of the ionospheric TEC to SB crossings exhibit complex temporal and spatial variations and have strong dependencies on season, latitude, and solar cycle. This effect is more appreciable in equinoctial months than in solstitial months, which is mainly caused by larger southward Bz components in equinox. In September equinox, latitudinal profile of relative variations of foF2 at noon is featured by depressions at high latitudes and enhancements in low-equatorial latitudes during IMF away sectors. The negative phase of foF2 is delayed at solar minimum relative to it during other parts of solar cycle, which might be associated with the difference in longevity of major interplanetary solar wind drivers perturbing the Earth's environment in different phases of solar cycle.

Properties of the suprathermal heavy ion population near 1 AU during solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dayeh, Maher A., E-mail: maldayeh@swri.edu; Ebert, Robert W.; Desai, Mihir I.

2016-03-25

Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/ULEIS) near 1 AU, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during interplanetary quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2014 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ∼0.11 and ∼1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following: (1) The number of quiet-hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 90% of the time; (2) The composition of the quiet-timemore » suprathermal heavy ion population ({sup 3}He, C-through-O, and Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum; (3) The heavy ion spectra at ∼0.11-0.32 MeV nucleon{sup −1} exhibit suprathermal tails with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.4 to 2.7. (4) Fe spectral indices get softer (steeper) from solar minimum of cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 maximum. These results imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ∼0.1 MeV nucleon{sup −1}, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events.« less

Critical frequencies of the ionospheric F1 and F2 layers during the last four solar cycles: Sunspot group type dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiǧit, Erdal; Kilcik, Ali; Elias, Ana Georgina; Dönmez, Burçin; Ozguc, Atila; Yurchshyn, Vasyl; Rozelot, Jean-Pierre

2018-06-01

The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions' critical frequencies (f0F1 and f0F2) are analyzed for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (f0F1) peaks at the same time with the small SG numbers, while the f0F2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers, especially during the solar cycle 23. The observed differences in the sensitivity of ionospheric critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers provide a new insight into the solar activity effects on the ionosphere and space weather. While the F1 layer is influenced by the slow solar wind, which is largely associated with small SGs, the ionospheric F2 layer is more sensitive to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and fast solar winds, which are mainly produced by large SGs and coronal holes. The SG numbers maximize during of peak of the solar cycle and the number of coronal holes peaks during the sunspot declining phase. During solar minimum there are relatively less large SGs, hence reduced CME and flare activity. These results provide a new perspective for assessing how the different regions of the ionosphere respond to space weather effects.

Can solar cycle modulate the ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Delin; Xiao, Ziniu

2018-01-01

The ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) is well-known robust. Recent studies from observations and model simulations have reported that some important atmospheric circulation systems of extratropics are markedly modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. But less effort has been devoted to revealing the solar influence on the PNA. We thus hypothesize that the instability and uncertainty in the relationship between solar activity and PNA could be due to the ENSO impacts. In this study, solar cycle modulation of the ENSO effect on the PNA has been statistically examined by the observations from NOAA and NCEP/NCAR for the period of 1950-2014. Results indicate that during the high solar activity (HS) years, the PNA has stronger relevance to the ENSO, and the response of tropospheric geopotential height to ENSO variability is broadly similar to the typical positive PNA pattern. However, in the case of low solar activity (LS) years, the correlation between ENSO and PNA decreases relatively and the response has some resemblance to the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO). Also, we find the impacts of solar activity on the middle troposphere are asymmetric during the different solar cycle phases, and the weak PNA-like response to solar activity only presents in the HS years. Closer inspection suggests that the higher solar activity has a much more remarkable modulation on the PNA-like response to the warm ENSO (WE) than that to the cold ENSO (CE), particularly over the Northeast Pacific region. The possible cause of the different responses might be the solar influence on the subtropical westerlies of upper troposphere. When the sea surface temperature (SST) of east-central tropical Pacific is anomalously warm, the upper tropospheric westerlies are significantly modulated by the higher solar activity, resulting in the acceleration and eastward shift of the North Pacific subtropical jet, which favors the propagation of WE signal from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, and consequently leading to the development of positive PNA-like pattern during the WE phase. Thus, it seems that the solar cycle can significantly modulate the WE effect on the PNA under the HS background.

Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

PubMed Central

Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Popova, E.; Zharkov, S. I.

2015-01-01

We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21–24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26–27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α − Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350–400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. PMID:26511513

Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, Robin; Davenport, Roger; Talbot, Jan

A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle formore » reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are proposed for future activities. Electrolysis membranes that permit higher temperatures and lower voltages are attainable. The oxygen half cycle will need further development and improvement.« less

The Peculiar Solar Minimum 23/24 Revealed by the Microwave Butterfly Diagram

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk; Yashiro, Seiji; Makela, Pertti; Shibasaki, Kiyoto; Hathaway, David

2010-01-01

The diminished polar magnetic field strength during the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is also reflected in the thermal radio emission originating from the polar chromosphere. During solar minima, the polar corona has extended coronal holes containing intense unipolar flux. In microwave images, the coronal holes appear bright, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K with respect to the quiet Sun. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is approx.10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes..

Planetary resonances, bi-stable oscillation modes, and solar activity cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleeper, H. P., Jr.

1972-01-01

The natural resonance structure of the planets in the solar system yields resonance periods of 11.08 and 180 years. The 11.08 year period is due to resonance of the sidereal periods of the three inner planets. The 180-year period is due to synodic resonances of the four major planets. These periods are also observed in the sunspot time series. The 11-year sunspot cycles from 1 to 19 are separated into categories of positive and negative cycles, Mode 1 and Mode 2 cycles, and typical and anomalous cycles. Each category has a characteristic shape, magnitude, or duration, so that statistical prediction techniques are improved when a cycle can be classified in a given category. These categories provide evidence for bistable modes of solar oscillation. The next minimum is expected in 1977 and the next maximum in 1981 or later. These epoch values are 2.5 years later than those based on typical cycle characteristics.

Investigation of Iron Oxide Morphology in a Cyclic Redox Water Splitting Process for Hydrogen Generation

PubMed Central

Bobek, Michael M.; Stehle, Richard C.; Hahn, David W.

2012-01-01

A solar fuels generation research program is focused on hydrogen production by means of reactive metal water splitting in a cyclic iron-based redox process. Iron-based oxides are explored as an intermediary reactive material to dissociate water molecules at significantly reduced thermal energies. With a goal of studying the resulting oxide chemistry and morphology, chemical assistance via CO is used to complete the redox cycle. In order to exploit the unique characteristics of highly reactive materials at the solar reactor scale, a monolithic laboratory scale reactor has been designed to explore the redox cycle at temperatures ranging from 675 to 875 K. Using high resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM) and electron dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), the oxide morphology and the oxide state are quantified, including spatial distributions. These images show the change of the oxide layers directly after oxidation and after reduction. The findings show a significant non-stoichiometric O/Fe gradient in the atomic ratio following oxidation, which is consistent with a previous kinetics model, and a relatively constant, non-stoichiometric O/Fe atomic ratio following reduction.

An investigation of the solar cycle response of odd-nitrogen in the thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusch, David W.; Solomon, Stanley C.

1992-01-01

This annual report covers the first year of funding for the study of the solar cycle variations of odd-nitrogen (N((sup 2)D), N((sup 4)S), NO) in the Earth's thermosphere. The study uses the extensive data base generated by the Atmosphere Explorer (AE) satellites, and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer Satellite. The AE data are being used, for the first time, to define the solar variability effect on the odd-nitrogen species through analysis of the emissions at 520 nano-m from N((sup 2)D) and the emission from O(+)((sup 2)P). Additional AE neutral and ion density data are used to help define and quantify the physical processes controlling the variations. The results from the airglow study will be used in the next two years of this study to explain the solar cycle changes in NO measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer.

Model of Energy Spectrum Parameters of Ground Level Enhancement Events in Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.-S.; Qin, G.

2018-01-01

Mewaldt et al. (2012) fitted the observations of the ground level enhancement (GLE) events during solar cycle 23 to the double power law equation to obtain the four spectral parameters, the normalization constant C, low-energy power law slope γ1, high-energy power law slope γ2, and break energy E0. There are 16 GLEs from which we select 13 for study by excluding some events with complicated situation. We analyze the four parameters with conditions of the corresponding solar events. According to solar event conditions, we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary shocks and another one without strong acceleration. By fitting the four parameters with solar event conditions we obtain models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. Therefore, we establish a model of energy spectrum of solar cycle 23 GLEs, which may be used in prediction in the future.

Effect of solar proton events on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles as computed using a two-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.; Mcpeters, Richard D.; Meade, Paul E.

1990-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of solar proton events (SPEs) on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles (1963-1984), by examining changes in the production of odd nitrogen, NO(y), and ozone and using a proton energy degradation scheme to derive ion pair production rates. These calculations show that NO(y) is not substantially changed over a solar cycle by SPEs; significant SPEs last only 1-5 days, tend to occur near solar maximum, and are typically months to years apart, preventing a build up of SPE-produced NO(y). Fractional ozone changes are even smaller than the fractional NO(y) changes and are significant only for the August 1972 SPE. Ozone, like NO(y), returns to its ambient levels on time scales of several months to a year.

Evolution of 3D electron density of the solar corona from the minimum to maximum of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tongjiang; Reginald, Nelson L.; Davila, Joseph M.; St Cyr, O. C.

2016-10-01

The variability of the solar white-light corona and its connection to the solar activity has been studied for more than a half century. It is widely accepted that the temporal variation of the total radiance of the K-corona follows the solar cycle pattern (e.g., correlated with sunspot number). However, the origin of this variation and its relationships with regard to coronal mass ejections and the solar wind are yet to be clearly understood. COR1-A and -B instruments onboard the STEREO spacecraft have continued to perform high-cadence (5 min) polarized brightness (pB) measurements from two different vantage points from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24. With these pB observations we have reconstructed the 3D coronal density between 1.5-4.0 solar radii for 100 Carrington rotations (CRs) from 2007 to 2014 using the spherically symmetric inversion (SSI) method. We validate these 3D density reconstructions by other means such as tomography, MHD modeling, and pB inversion of LASCO/C2 data. We analyze the solar cycle variations of total coronal mass (or average density) over the global Sun and in two hemispheres, as well as the variations of the streamer area and mean density. We find the short-term oscillations of 8-9 CRs during the ascending and maximum phases through wavelet analysis. We explore the origin of these oscillations based on evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and coronal structures.

A New SATIRE-S Spectral Solar Irradiance Reconstruction for Solar Cycles 21-23 and Its Implications for Stratospheric Ozone*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Krivova, Natalie A.; Unruh, Yvonne C.; Haigh, Joanna D.; Solanki, Sami K.

2014-11-01

We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.

Seasonal Variation of High-latitude Geomagnetic Activity Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

The coupling of the solar wind and auroral region has been examined by using westward electrojet indices since 1966 - 2014. We have studied the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years for solar cycles 20 - 24. The classical two-equinox activity pattern in geomagnetic activity was seen in multi-year averages but it was found in less than one third of the years examined. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. We identified the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966 - 2014) and IL (1995 - 2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in 2/3 and at either solstice in 1/3 of the years examined. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. An exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Solar Surface Velocity in the Large Scale estimated by Magnetic Element Tracking Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiyama, M.; Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Machida, S.

2017-12-01

The 11years variation in the solar activity is one of the important sources of decadal variation in the solar-terrestrial environment. Therefore, predicting the solar cycle activity is crucial for the space weather. To build the prediction schemes for the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Recently, the relationship between polar magnetic field at the solar minimum and next solar cycle activity is intensively discussed. Nowadays, many people believe that the polar magnetic field at the solar minimum is one of the best predictor for the next solar cycle. To estimate polar magnetic field, Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model have been often used. On the other hand, SFT model needs several parameters, for example Meridional circulation, differential rotation, turbulent diffusion etc.. So far, those parameters have not been fully understood, and their uncertainties may affect the accuracy of the prediction. In this study, we try to discuss the parameters which are used in SFT model. We focus on two kinds of the solar surface motions, Differential rotation and Meridional circulation. First, we have developed Magnetic Element Tracking (MET) module, which is able to obtain the surface velocity by using the magnetic field data. We have used SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI for the magnetic field data. By using MET, we study the solar surface motion over 2 cycle (nearly 24 years), and we found that the velocity variation is related to the active region belt. This result is consistent with [Hathaway et al., 2011]. Further, we apply our module to the Hinode/SOT data which spatial resolution is high. Because of its high resolution, we can discuss the surface motion close to the pole which has not been discussed enough. Further, we discuss the relationship between the surface motion and the magnetic field strength and the location of longitude.

Influence of the Solar Cycle on Turbulence Properties and Cosmic-Ray Diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.-L.; Adhikari, L.; Zank, G. P.; Hu, Q.; Feng, X. S.

2018-04-01

The solar cycle dependence of various turbulence quantities and cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion coefficients is investigated by using OMNI 1 minute resolution data over 22 years. We employ Elsässer variables z ± to calculate the magnetic field turbulence energy and correlation lengths for both the inwardly and outwardly directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We present the temporal evolution of both large-scale solar wind (SW) plasma variables and small-scale magnetic fluctuations. Based on these observed quantities, we study the influence of solar activity on CR parallel and perpendicular diffusion using quasi-linear theory and nonlinear guiding center theory, respectively. We also evaluate the radial evolution of the CR diffusion coefficients by using the boundary conditions for different solar activity levels. We find that in the ecliptic plane at 1 au (1), the large-scale SW temperature T, velocity V sw, Alfvén speed V A , and IMF magnitude B 0 are positively related to solar activity; (2) the fluctuating magnetic energy density < {{z}+/- }2> , residual energy E D , and corresponding correlation functions all have an obvious solar cycle dependence. The residual energy E D is always negative, which indicates that the energy in magnetic fluctuations is larger than the energy in kinetic fluctuations, especially at solar maximum; (3) the correlation length λ for magnetic fluctuations does not show significant solar cycle variation; (4) the temporally varying shear source of turbulence, which is most important in the inner heliosphere, depends on the solar cycle; (5) small-scale fluctuations may not depend on the direction of the background magnetic field; and (6) high levels of SW fluctuations will increase CR perpendicular diffusion and decrease CR parallel diffusion, but this trend can be masked if the background IMF changes in concert with turbulence in response to solar activity. These results provide quantitative inputs for both turbulence transport models and CR diffusion models, and also provide valuable insight into the long-term modulation of CRs in the heliosphere.

Solar cycle dependence of the heliospheric shape deduced from a global MHD simulation of the interaction process between a nonuniform time-dependent solar wind and the local interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, T.; Washimi, H.

1999-06-01

The global structure of the solar wind/very local interstellar medium interaction is studied from a fully three-dimensional time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model, in which the solar wind speed increases from 400 to 800 km/s in going from the ecliptic to pole and the heliolatitude of the low-high-speed boundary changes from 30° to 80° in going from the solar minimum to solar maximum. In addition, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) changes its polarity at the solar maximum. As a whole, the shapes of the terminal shock (TS) and heliopause (HP) are elongated along the solar polar axis owing to a high solar wind ram pressure over the poles. In the ecliptic plane, the heliospheric structure changes little throughout a solar cycle. The TS in this plane shows a characteristic bullet-shaped structure. In the polar plane, on the other hand, the shape of the TS exhibits many specific structures according to the stage of the solar cycle. These structures include the polygonal configuration of the polar TS seen around the solar minimum, the mesa- and terrace-shaped TSs in the high- and low-speed solar wind regions seen around the ascending phase, and the chimney-shaped TS in the high-speed solar wind region seen around the solar maximum. These structures are formed from different combinations of right-angle shock, oblique shock, and steep oblique shock so as to transport the heliosheath plasma most efficiently toward the heliotail (HT). In the HT, the hot and weakly-magnetized plasma from the high-heliolatitude TS invades as far as the ecliptic plane. A weakly time-dependent recirculation flow in the HT is a manifestation of invading flow. Distributions of magnetic field in the HT, which are a pile-up of the compressed MF over several solar cycles, are modified by the flow from high-heliolatitude.

Impacts of Wind and Solar on Fossil-Fueled Generators: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lew, D.; Brinkman, G.; Kumar, N.

2012-08-01

High penetrations of wind and solar power will impact the operations of the remaining generators on the power system. Regional integration studies have shown that wind and solar may cause fossil-fueled generators to cycle on and off and ramp down to part load more frequently and potentially more rapidly. Increased cycling, deeper load following, and rapid ramping may result in wear-and-tear impacts on fossil-fueled generators that lead to increased capital and maintenance costs, increased equivalent forced outage rates, and degraded performance over time. Heat rates and emissions from fossil-fueled generators may be higher during cycling and ramping than during steady-statemore » operation. Many wind and solar integration studies have not taken these increased cost and emissions impacts into account because data have not been available. This analysis considers the cost and emissions impacts of cycling and ramping of fossil-fueled generation to refine assessments of wind and solar impacts on the power system.« less

Dynamo generation of magnetic fields in three-dimensional space - Solar cycle main flux tube formation and reversals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, H.

1983-08-01

The case of the solar magnetic cycle is investigated as a prototype of the dynamo processes involved in the generation of magnetic fields in astrophysics. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations are solved using a numerical method with a prescribed velocity field in order follow the movement and deformation. It is shown that a simple combination of differential rotation and global convection, given by a linear analysis of fluid dynamics in a rotating sphere, can perpetually create and reverse great magnetic flux tubes encircling the sun. These main flux tubes of the solar cycle are the progenitors of small-scale flux ropes of the solar activity. These findings indicate that magnetic fields can be generated by fluid motions and that MHD equations have a new type of oscillatory solution. It is shown that the solar cycle can be identified with one of these oscillatory solutions. It is proposed that the formation of magnetic flux tubes by streaming plasma flows is a universal mechanism of flux tube formation in astrophysics.

Effects of plasma drag on low Earth orbiting satellites due to solar forcing induced perturbations and heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nwankwo, Victor U. J.; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.; Weigel, Robert S.

2015-07-01

The upper atmosphere changes significantly in temperature, density and composition as a result of solar cycle variations, which causes severe storms and flares, and increases in the amount of absorbed solar radiation from solar energetic events. Satellite orbits are consequently affected by this process, especially those in low Earth orbit (LEO). In this paper, we present a model of atmospheric drag effects on the trajectory of two hypothetical LEO satellites of different ballistic coefficients, initially injected at h = 450 km. We investigate long-term trends of atmospheric drag on LEO satellites due to solar forcing induced atmospheric perturbations and heating at different phases of the solar cycle, and during short intervals of strong geomagnetic disturbances or magnetic storms. We show dependence of orbital decay on the severity of both solar cycle and phase and the extent of geomagnetic perturbations. The result of the model compares well with observed decay profile of some existing LEO satellites and provide a justification of the theoretical considerations used here.

Solar signals detected within neutral atmospheric and ionospheric parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koucka Knizova, Petra; Georgieva, Katya; Mosna, Zbysek; Kozubek, Michal; Kouba, Daniel; Kirov, Boian; Potuzníkova, Katerina; Boska, Josef

2018-06-01

We have analyzed time series of solar data together with the atmospheric and ionospheric measurements for solar cycles 19 till 23 according to particular data availability. For the analyses we have used long term data with 1-day sampling. By mean of Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) we have found common spectral domains within solar and atmospheric and ionospheric time series. Further we have identified terms when particular pairs of signals show high coherence applying Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC). Despite wide oscillation ranges detected in particular time series CWT spectra we found only limited domains with high coherence by mean of WTC. Wavelet Transform Coherence reveals significant high power domains with stable phase difference for periods 1 month, 2 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years and 3-4 years between pairs of solar data and atmospheric and ionospheric data. The occurence of the detected domains vary significantly during particular solar cycle (SC) and from cycle to the following one. It indicates the changing solar forcing and/or atmospheric sensitivity with time.

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

2004-01-01

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael, A. T.; Opher, M.; Provornikova, E.

In the heliosheath (HS), Voyager 2 has observed a flow with constant radial velocity and magnetic flux conservation. Voyager 1, however, has observed a decrease in the flow’s radial velocity and an order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux. We investigate the role of the 11 yr solar cycle variation of the magnetic field strength on the magnetic flux within the HS using a global 3D magnetohydrodynamic model of the heliosphere. We use time and latitude-dependent solar wind velocity and density inferred from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/SWAN and interplanetary scintillations data and implemented solar cycle variations of the magnetic fieldmore » derived from 27 day averages of the field magnitude average of the magnetic field at 1 AU from the OMNI database. With the inclusion of the solar cycle time-dependent magnetic field intensity, the model matches the observed intensity of the magnetic field in the HS along both Voyager 1 and 2. This is a significant improvement from the same model without magnetic field solar cycle variations, which was over a factor of two larger. The model accurately predicts the radial velocity observed by Voyager 2; however, the model predicts a flow speed ∼100 km s{sup −1} larger than that derived from LECP measurements at Voyager 1. In the model, magnetic flux is conserved along both Voyager trajectories, contrary to observations. This implies that the solar cycle variations in solar wind magnetic field observed at 1 AU does not cause the order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux observed in the Voyager 1 data.« less

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. To check the hypothesis that the solar cycle is modulating this relationship, the sample was divided into two groups, one included the years corresponding to the three consecutive lowest values of sunspots number for every 11-years cycle (43 years) and the other the ones corresponding to the three consecutive highest numbers (39 years) for every 11-years cycle. If the data of each year were independent, the correlation coefficients between NAO index and NHT for 43 (39) years would be 0.30 (0.32) at 95% confidence level. Correlation index corresponding to the solar minimum phases was -0.17 and to the solar maximum phases was 0.35. The second result is statistically significant and indicates that there are periods when a positive phase of the NAO is related to positive anomalies of NHT- result that supports our current idea of the influence of the NAO on temperature- but there are other periods when NAO and NHT are not correlated. So, results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated -result assumed up to the moment- but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [1] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases-.

Variations in the temperature and circulation of the atmosphere during the 11-year cycle of solar activity derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2017-07-01

Using the data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis, we have obtained estimates of changes in temperature, the geopotential and its large-scale zonal harmonics, wind velocity, and potential vorticity in the troposphere and stratosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the 11-year solar cycle. The estimates have been obtained using the method of multiple linear regression. Specific features of response of the indicated atmospheric parameters to the solar cycle have been revealed in particular regions of the atmosphere for a whole year and depending on the season. The results of the analysis indicate the existence of a reliable statistical relationship of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the 11-year solar cycle.

An Empirical Orthogonal Function Reanalysis of the Northern Polar External and Induced Magnetic Field During Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shore, R. M.; Freeman, M. P.; Gjerloev, J. W.

2018-01-01

We apply the method of data-interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to ground-based magnetic vector data from the SuperMAG archive to produce a series of month length reanalyses of the surface external and induced magnetic field (SEIMF) in 110,000 km2 equal-area bins over the entire northern polar region at 5 min cadence over solar cycle 23, from 1997.0 to 2009.0. Each EOF reanalysis also decomposes the measured SEIMF variation into a hierarchy of spatiotemporal patterns which are ordered by their contribution to the monthly magnetic field variance. We find that the leading EOF patterns can each be (subjectively) interpreted as well-known SEIMF systems or their equivalent current systems. The relationship of the equivalent currents to the true current flow is not investigated. We track the leading SEIMF or equivalent current systems of similar type by intermonthly spatial correlation and apply graph theory to (objectively) group their appearance and relative importance throughout a solar cycle, revealing seasonal and solar cycle variation. In this way, we identify the spatiotemporal patterns that maximally contribute to SEIMF variability over a solar cycle. We propose this combination of EOF and graph theory as a powerful method for objectively defining and investigating the structure and variability of the SEIMF or their equivalent ionospheric currents for use in both geomagnetism and space weather applications. It is demonstrated here on solar cycle 23 but is extendable to any epoch with sufficient data coverage.

Seasonal Variation of High-Latitude Geomagnetic Activity in Individual Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-10-01

We study the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years in 1966-2014 (solar cycles 20-24) by identifying the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966-2014) and IL (1995-2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in two thirds and at either solstice in one third of the years examined. The traditional two-equinox maximum pattern is found in roughly one fourth of the years. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. Exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Relationships between solar activity and climate change. [sunspot cycle effects on lower atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, W. O.

1974-01-01

Recurrent droughts are related to the double sunspot cycle. It is suggested that high solar activity generally increases meridional circulations and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter. This effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

Flares, Fears, and Forecasts: Public Misconceptions About the Sunspot Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, K.

2012-06-01

Among the disaster scenarios perpetrated by 2012 apocalypse aficionados is the destruction of humankind due to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These scenarios reflect common misconceptions regarding the solar cycle. This paper (based on an annual meeting poster) sheds light on those misconceptions and how the AAVSO Solar Section can address them.

NASA welding assessment program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stofel, E. J.

1984-01-01

A long duration test was conducted for comparing various methods of attaching electrical interconnects to solar cells for near Earth orbit spacecraft. Representative solar array modules were thermally cycled for 36,000 cycles between -80 and +80 C. The environmental stress of more than 6 years on a near Earth spacecraft as it cycles in and out of the earth's shadow was simulated. Evaluations of the integrity of these modules were made by visual and by electrical examinations before starting the cycling and then at periodic intervals during the cycling tests. Modules included examples of parallel gap and of ultrasonic welding, as well as soldering. The materials and fabrication processes are state of the art, suitable for forming large solar arrays of spacecraft quality. The modules survived this extensive cycling without detectable degradation in their ability to generate power under sunlight illumination.

Solar Irradiance from 165 to 400 nm in 2008 and UV Variations in Three Spectral Bands During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, M.; Bolsée, D.; Damé, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Pereira, N.; Irbah, A.; Bekki, S.; Cessateur, G.; Foujols, T.; Thiéblemont, R.

2016-12-01

Accurate measurements of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) and its temporal variations are of primary interest to better understand solar mechanisms, and the links between solar variability and Earth's atmosphere and climate. The SOLar SPECtrum (SOLSPEC) instrument of the Solar Monitoring Observatory (SOLAR) payload onboard the International Space Station (ISS) has been built to carry out SSI measurements from 165 to 3088 nm. We focus here on the ultraviolet (UV) part of the measured solar spectrum (wavelengths less than 400 nm) because the UV part is potentially important for understanding the solar forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. We present here SOLAR/SOLSPEC UV data obtained since 2008, and their variations in three spectral bands during Solar Cycle 24. They are compared with previously reported UV measurements and model reconstructions, and differences are discussed.

Geomagnetic activity during 10 - 11 solar cycles that has been observed by old Russian observatories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seredyn, Tomasz; Wysokinski, Arkadiusz; Kobylinski, Zbigniew; Bialy, Jerzy

2016-07-01

A good knowledge of solar-terrestrial relations during past solar activity cycles could give the appropriate tools for a correct space weather forecast. The paper focuses on the analysis of the historical collections of the ground based magnetic observations and their operational indices from the period of two sunspot solar cycles 10 - 11, period 1856 - 1878 (Bartels rotations 324 - 635). We use hourly observations of H and D geomagnetic field components registered at Russian stations: St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk, Barnaul, Ekaterinburg, Nertshinsk, Sitka, and compare them to the data obtained from the Helsinki observatory. We compare directly these records and also calculated from the data of the every above mentioned station IHV indices introduced by Svalgaard (2003), which have been used for further comparisons in epochs of assumed different polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field. We used also local index C9 derived by Zosimovich (1981) from St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk data. Solar activity is represented by sunspot numbers. The correlative and continuous wavelet analyses are applied for estimation of the correctness of records from different magnetic stations. We have specially regard to magnetic storms in the investigated period and the special Carrington event of 1-2 Sep 1859. Generally studied magnetic time series correctly show variability of the geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity presents some delay in relation to solar one as it is seen especially during descending and minimum phase of the even 11-year cycle. This pattern looks similarly in the case of 16 - 17 solar cycles.

Examination of the Armagh Observatory Annual Mean Temperature Record, 1844-2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2006-01-01

The long-term annual mean temperature record (1844-2004) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom) is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar/geomagnetic forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both are apparent in the temperature record. Moving averages for 10 years of temperature are found to highly correlate against both 10-year moving averages of the aa-geomagnetic index and sunspot number, having correlation coefficients of approx. 0.7, inferring that nearly half the variance in the 10-year moving average of temperature can be explained by solar/geomagnetic forcing. The residuals appear episodic in nature, with cooling seen in the 1880s and again near 1980. Seven of the last 10 years of the temperature record has exceeded 10 C, unprecedented in the overall record. Variation of sunspot cyclic averages and 2-cycle moving averages of temperature strongly associate with similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle, with the residuals displaying an apparent 9-cycle variation and a steep rise in temperature associated with cycle 23. Hale cycle averages of temperature for even-odd pairs of sunspot cycles correlate against similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle and, especially, against the length of the Hale cycle. Indications are that annual mean temperature will likely exceed 10 C over the next decade.

The solar energetic particle propagation of solar flare events on 24th solar cycle.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paluk, P.; Khumlumlert, T.; Kanlayaprasit, N.; Aiemsa-ad, N.

2017-09-01

Now the Sun is in the 24th solar cycle. The peak of solar cycle correspond to the number of the Sun activities, which one of them is solar flare. The solar flare is the violent explosion at the solar atmosphere and releases the high energy ion from the Sun to the interplanetary medium. Solar energetic particles or solar cosmic ray have important effect on the Earth, such as disrupt radio communication. We analyze the particle transport of the solar flare events on August 9, 2011, January 27, 2012, and November 3, 2013 in 24th solar cycle. The particle data for each solar flare was obtained from SIS instrument on ACE spacecraft. We simulate the particle transport with the equation of Ruffolo 1995, 1998. We solve the transport equation with the numerical technique of finite different. We find the injection duration from the Sun to the Earth by the compared fitting method of piecewise linear function between the simulation results and particle data from spacecraft. The position of these solar flare events are on the west side of the Sun, which are N18W68, N33W85, and S12W16. We found that mean free path is roughly constant for a single event. This implies that the interplanetary scattering is approximately energy independent, but the level of scattering varies with time. The injection duration decreases with increasing energy. We found the resultant variation of the highest energy and lowest energy, because the effect of space environments and the number of the detected data was small. The high mean free path of the high energy particles showed the transport capability of particles along to the variable magnetic field line. The violent explosion of these solar flares didn’t affect on the Earth magnetic field with Kp-index less than 3.

Statistical Comparison of Anomalous Cosmic Rays and Galactic Cosmic Rays during the Recently Consecutive Unusual Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

Anomalous cosmic rays (ACRs) carry crucial information on the coupling between solar wind and interstellar medium, as well as cosmic ray modulation within the heliosphere. Due to the distinct origins and modulation processes, the spectra and abundance of ACRs are significantly different from that of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Since the launch of NASA's ACE spacecraft in 1997, its CRIS and SIS instruments have continuously recorded GCR and ACR intensities of several elemental heavy-ions, spanning the whole cycle 23 and the cycle 24 maximum. Here we present a statistical comparison of ACR and GCR observed by ACE spacecraft and their possible relation to solar activity. While the differential flux of ACR also exhibits apparent anti-correlation with solar activity level, the flux of the latest prolonged solar minimum (year 2009) is approximately 5% lower than its previous solar minimum (year 1997). And the minimal level of ACR flux appears in year 2004, instead of year 2001 with the strongest solar activities. The negative indexes of the power law spectra within the energy range from 5 to 30 MeV/nuc also vary with time. The spectra get harder during the solar minimum but softer during the solar maximum. The approaching solar minimum of cycle 24 is believed to resemble the Dalton or Gleissberg Minimum with extremely low solar activity (Zolotova and Ponyavin, 2014). Therefore, the different characteristics of ACRs between the coming solar minimum and the previous minimum are also of great interest. Finally, we will also discuss the possible solar-modulation processes which is responsible for different modulation of ACR and GCR, especially the roles played by diffusion and drifts. The comparative analysis will provide valuable insights into the physical modulation process within the heliosphere under opposite solar polarity and variable solar activity levels.

Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays Observed by SOHO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleck, Bernhard; Curdt, Werner; Olive, Jean-Philippe; van Overbeek, Ton

2015-04-01

Both the Cosmic Ray Flux (CRF) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) have left an imprint on SOHO technical systems. While the solar array efficiency degraded irreversibly down to 75% of its original level over 1 ½ solar cycles, Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in the solid state recorder (SSR) have been reversed by the memory protection mechanism. We compare the daily CRF observed by the Oulu station with the daily SOHO SEU rate and with the degradation curve of the solar arrays. The Oulu CRF and the SOHO SSR SEU rate are both modulated by the solar cycle and are highly correlated, except for sharp spikes in the SEU rate, caused by isolated SEP events, which also show up as discontinuities in the otherwise slowly decreasing solar ray efficiency. This allows to discriminate between effects with solar and non-solar origin and to compare the relative strength of both. We find that the total number of SSR SEUs with solar origin over the 17 ½ years from January 1996 through June 2013 is of the same order as those generated by cosmic ray hits. 49% of the total solar array degradation during that time can be attributed to proton events, i.e. the effect of a series of short-lived, violent events (SEPs) is comparable to the cycle-integrated damage by cosmic rays.

Properties of sunspot cycles and hemispheric wings since the 19th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leussu, Raisa; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Arlt, Rainer; Mursula, Kalevi

2016-08-01

Aims: The latitudinal evolution of sunspot emergence over the course of the solar cycle, the so-called butterfly diagram, is a fundamental property of the solar dynamo. Here we present a study of the butterfly diagram of sunspot group occurrence for cycles 7-10 and 11-23 using data from a recently digitized sunspot drawings by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe in 1825-1867, and from RGO/USAF/NOAA(SOON) compilation of sunspot groups in 1874-2015. Methods: We developed a new, robust method of hemispheric wing separation based on an analysis of long gaps in sunspot group occurrence in different latitude bands. The method makes it possible to ascribe each sunspot group to a certain wing (solar cycle and hemisphere), and separate the old and new cycle during their overlap. This allows for an improved study of solar cycles compared to the common way of separating the cycles. Results: We separated each hemispheric wing of the butterfly diagram and analysed them with respect to the number of groups appearing in each wing, their lengths, hemispheric differences, and overlaps. Conclusions: The overlaps of successive wings were found to be systematically longer in the northern hemisphere for cycles 7-10, but in the southern hemisphere for cycles 16-22. The occurrence of sunspot groups depicts a systematic long-term variation between the two hemispheres. During Schwabe time, the hemispheric asymmetry was north-dominated during cycle 9 and south-dominated during cycle 10.

SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 Solar Variability Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1998-01-01

The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSB UV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200-405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170-400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22.

AFT: Extending Solar Cycle Prediction with Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upton, L.; Hathaway, D. H.

2017-12-01

The Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model is an innovative surface flux transport model that simulates the evolution of the radial magnetic field on the surface of the Sun. AFT was designed to be as realistic as possible by 1: incorporating the observed surface flows (meridional flow, differential rotation, and an explicit evolving convective pattern) and by 2: using data assimilation to incorporate the observed magnetic fields directly from line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms. AFT has proven to be successful in simulating the evolution of the surface magnetic fields on both short time scales (days-weeks) as well as for long time scales (years). In particular, AFT has been shown to accurately predict the evolution of the Sun's dipolar magnetic field 3-5 years in advance. Since the Sun's polar magnetic field strength at solar cycle minimum is the best indicator of the amplitude of the next cycle, this has in turn extended our ability to make solar cycle predictions to 3-5 years before solar minimum occurs. Here, we will discuss some of the challenges of implementing data assimilation into AFT. We will also discuss the role of data assimilation in advancing solar cycle predictive capability.

Electrostatic bonding of thin (cycle sine 3 mil) 7070 cover glass to Ta2O5 AR-coated thin (cycle sine 2 mil) silicon wafers and solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egelkrout, D. W.

1981-01-01

Electrostatic bonding of thin cover glass to thin solar cells was researched. Silicon solar cells, wafers, and Corning 7070 glass of from about 0.002" to about 0.003" in thickness were used in the investigation to establish optimum parameters for producing mechanically acceptable bonds while minimizing thermal stresses and resultant solar cell electrical parameter degradation.

Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marsula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993–2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiang, N. B.; Kong, D. F., E-mail: nanbin@ynao.ac.cn

The Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos total solar irradiance (TSI), Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitoring TSI, and Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium TSI are three typical TSI composites. Magnetic Plage Strength Index (MPSI) and Mount Wilson Sunspot Index (MWSI) should indicate the weak and strong magnetic field activity on the solar full disk, respectively. Cross-correlation (CC) analysis of MWSI with three TSI composites shows that TSI should be weakly correlated with MWSI, and not be in phase with MWSI at timescales of solar cycles. The wavelet coherence (WTC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) of TSI with MWSI indicate that the inter-solar-cyclemore » variation of TSI is also not related to solar strong magnetic field activity, which is represented by MWSI. However, CC analysis of MPSI with three TSI composites indicates that TSI should be moderately correlated and accurately in phase with MPSI at timescales of solar cycles, and that the statistical significance test indicates that the correlation coefficient of three TSI composites with MPSI is statistically significantly higher than that of three TSI composites with MWSI. Furthermore, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) and WTC of TSI with MPSI show that the TSI is highly related and actually in phase with MPSI at a timescale of a solar cycle as well. Consequently, the CC analysis, XWT, and WTC indicate that the solar weak magnetic activity on the full disk, which is represented by MPSI, dominates the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI.« less

An early prediction of 25th solar cycle using Hurst exponent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A. K.; Bhargawa, Asheesh

2017-11-01

The analysis of long memory processes in solar activity, space weather and other geophysical phenomena has been a major issue even after the availability of enough data. We have examined the data of various solar parameters like sunspot numbers, 10.7 cm radio flux, solar magnetic field, proton flux and Alfven Mach number observed for the year 1976-2016. We have done the statistical test for persistence of solar activity based on the value of Hurst exponent (H) which is one of the most classical applied methods known as rescaled range analysis. We have discussed the efficiency of this methodology as well as prediction content for next solar cycle based on long term memory. In the present study, Hurst exponent analysis has been used to investigate the persistence of above mentioned (five) solar activity parameters and a simplex projection analysis has been used to predict the ascension time and the maximum number of counts for 25th solar cycle. For available dataset of the year 1976-2016, we have calculated H = 0.86 and 0.82 for sunspot number and 10.7 cm radio flux respectively. Further we have calculated maximum number of counts for sunspot numbers and F10.7 cm index as 102.8± 24.6 and 137.25± 8.9 respectively. Using the simplex projection analysis, we have forecasted that the solar cycle 25th would start in the year 2021 (January) and would last up to the year 2031 (September) with its maxima in June 2024.

On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

2015-09-01

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

MAVEN Upstream Observations of the Cycle 24 Space Weather Conditions at Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. O.; Hara, T.; Halekas, J. S.; Thiemann, E.; Curry, S.; Lillis, R. J.; Larson, D. E.; Espley, J. R.; Gruesbeck, J.; Eparvier, F. G.; Li, Y.; Jian, L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Jakosky, B. M.

2016-12-01

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft went into orbit around Mars during the height of the activity phase of Solar Cycle 24. The mission was designed in part to study the response of the upper atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere of Mars to solar and solar wind inputs. When MAVEN is on the Martian dayside and orbiting around its apoapsis altitude of 6200 km, the suite of instruments onboard can measure the solar wind plasma (density, velocity), interplanetary magnetic field (magnitude and direction), and particle counts of solar energetic particles (SEPs), as well as the EUV solar irradiance. We will present an overview of the upstream conditions observed to date and highlight a number of Mars-impacting space weather events due to ICMEs and SEPs. We will also present events that are triggered by corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which become more prominent beyond 1 AU and are the dominant heliospheric structures during the declining phase of the solar cycle. As part of the discussion, we will compare and contrast observations from MAVEN and ACE/WIND or STEREO-A during periods when Mars and the 1-AU observer were in solar opposition or nearly aligned along the solar wind Parker spiral.

Study of seismic activity during the ascending and descending phases of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukma, Indriani; Abidin, Zamri Zainal

2017-06-01

The study of the solar cycle and geomagnetic index associated with the seismic activity from the year 1901 to the end of 2015 has been done for an area that covers the majority of China and its bordering countries. Data of sunspot number, solar wind speed, daily storm time index and earthquake number are collected from NOAA, NASA, WDC, OMNI and USGS databases and websites. The earthquakes are classified into small (M < 5) and large (M ≥ 5) magnitudes (in Richter scale). We investigated the variation of earthquake activities with the geomagnetic storm index due to the solar wind. We focused on their variation in the ascending and descending phases of solar cycle. From our study, we conclude that there is a correlation between the phases' geomagnetic index and solar wind speed. We have also suggested that there is a certain degree of correlation between solar activity and seismicity in these phases. For every solar cycle, we find that there is a trend for earthquakes to occur in greater numbers during the descending phase. This can be explained by the increment in the solar wind speed and geomagnetic storm index during this phase.

Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum in Microwaves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

2011-01-01

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Middle Atmosphere Response to Different Descriptions of the 11-Year Solar Cycle in Spectral Irradiance in a Chemistry-Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swartz, W. H.; Stolarski, R. S.; Oman, L. D.; Fleming, E. L.; Jackman, C. H.

2012-01-01

The 11-year solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3-6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response 50 using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOS CCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the atmospheric response to arbitrary SSI variations.

Quantifying variability in fast and slow solar wind: From turbulence to extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.; Moloney, N.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Fast and slow solar wind exhibit variability across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, with evolving turbulence producing fluctuations on sub-hour timescales and the irregular solar cycle modulating the system over many years. Here, we apply the data quantile-quantile (DQQ) method [Tindale and Chapman 2016, 2017] to over 20 years of Wind data, to study the time evolution of the statistical distribution of plasma parameters in fast and slow solar wind. This model-independent method allows us to simultaneously explore the evolution of fluctuations across all scales. We find a two-part functional form for the statistical distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and its components, with each region of the distribution evolving separately over the solar cycle. Up to a value of 8nT, turbulent fluctuations dominate the distribution of the IMF, generating the approximately lognormal shape found by Burlaga [2001]. The mean of this core-turbulence region tracks solar cycle activity, while its variance remains constant, independent of the fast or slow state of the solar wind. However, when we test the lognormality of this core-turbulence component over time, we find the model provides a poor description of the data at solar maximum, where sharp peaks in the distribution dominate over the lognormal shape. At IMF values higher than 8nT, we find a separate, extremal distribution component, whose moments are sensitive to solar cycle phase, the peak activity of the cycle and the solar wind state. We further investigate these `extremal' values using burst analysis, where a burst is defined as a continuous period of exceedance over a predefined threshold. This form of extreme value statistics allows us to study the stochastic process underlying the time series, potentially supporting a probabilistic forecast of high-energy events. Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11) Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2017), submitted Burlaga, L.F. (2001), J. Geophys. Res., 106(A8)

Space weather influence on the agriculture technology and wheat prices in the medieval England (1259-1703) through cosmic ray/solar activity cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, L. I.; Pustil'Nik, L. A.; Yom Din, G.

2003-04-01

The database of Professor Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages (1249-1703) was used to search for possible manifestations of solar activity and cosmic ray intensity variations. The main object of our statistical analysis is investigation of bursts of prices. Our study shows that bursts and troughs of wheat prices take place at extreme states (maximums or minimums) of solar activity cycles. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by cosmic ray intensity solar cycle variations, and compare the expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between price bursts with statistical properties of the intervals between extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. The medians of both samples have the values of 11.00 and 10.7 years; standard deviations are 1.44 and 1.53 years for prices and for solar activity, respectively. The hypothesis that the frequency distributions are the same for both of the samples have significance level >95%. In the next step we analyzed direct links between wheat prices and cosmic ray cycle variations in the 17th Century, for which both wheat prices and cosmic ray intensity (derived from Be-10 isotope data) are available. We show that for all seven solar activity minimums (cosmic ray intensity maximums) the observed prices were higher than prices for the seven intervals of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation). This result, combined with the conclusion of similarity of statistical properties of the price and solar activity extremes can be considered as direct evidence of a causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity/cosmic ray intensity extremes.

The Sun and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

Many geologic records of climatic and environmental change based on various proxy variables exhibit distinct cyclicities that have been attributed to extraterrestrial forcing. The best known of these are the changes in Earth’s orbital geometry called Milankovitch Cycles, with periodicities of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. However, many cycles seem to have subMilankovitch periodicities, commonly on decadal and centennial scales, similar to those of known solar cycles. A direct connection between solar irradiance (solar constant) and weather and climate has been suggested for more than 100 years but generally rejected by most scientists, who assume that the effect of solar variations would be small. However, recent satellite radiometer measurements and modeling studies indicate that small changes in total solar irradiance could produce global temperature changes of the magnitude suggested for climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1550–1700).

Galactic CR in the Heliosphere according to NM data, 3. Results for even solar cycles 20 and 22.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, L.; Dorman, I.; Iucci, N.; Parisi, M.; Villoresi, G.; Zukerman, I.

We found that the maximum of correlation coefficient between cosmic ray (CR) intensity and solar activity (SA) variations is occurred for even cycles 20 and 22 for about two-three times in the shorter time than for odd cycles 19 and 21. We came to conclusion that this difference is caused by CR drift effects: during even cycle drifts produced the small increasing of CR global modulation (additional to the caused by convection-diffusion mechanism) in the period from minimum to maximum of SA, and after the maximum of SA up to the minimum- about the same decreasing of CR modulation. This gives sufficient decreasing of observed time lag between CR and- SA in even solar cycles. We analyzed monthly and 11 months smoothed data of (CR) intensity observed by neutron monitors with different cut-off rigidities for even solar cycles 20 and 22. We use a special model described the connection between solar activity (characterized by monthly sunspot numbers) and CR convection- diff usion global modulation with taking into account time-lag of processes in the Heliosphere relative to the active processes on the Sun. For taking into account drifts we use models described in literature. In the first we correct observed long-term CR modulation on drifts with different amplitudes from 0 (no drifts), then 0.15%, 0.25%,... up to 4%. For each expected amplitude of drifts we determine the correlation coefficient between expected CR variations and observed by neutron monitors with different cut - off rigidities for different times of solar wind transportation from the Sun to the boundary of the modulation region from 1 to 60 average months (it corresponds approximately to dimension of modulation region from about 6 to 360 AU). We compare observed res ults for even solar cycles 20 and 22.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gurgenashvili, Eka; Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Kukhianidze, Vasil

Rieger-type periodicity has been detected in different activity indices over many solar cycles. It was recently shown that the periodicity correlates with solar activity having a shorter period during stronger cycles. Solar activity level is generally asymmetric between northern and southern hemispheres, which could suggest the presence of a similar behavior in the Rieger-type periodicity. We analyze the sunspot area/number and the total magnetic flux data for northern and southern hemispheres during solar cycles 19–23, which had remarkable north–south asymmetry. Using wavelet analysis of sunspot area and number during the north-dominated cycles (19–20), we obtained the periodicity of 160–165 daysmore » in the stronger northern hemisphere and 180–190 days in the weaker southern hemisphere. On the other hand, south-dominated cycles (21–23) display the periodicity of 155–160 days in the stronger southern hemisphere and 175–188 days in the weaker northern hemisphere. Therefore, the Rieger-type periodicity has the north–south asymmetry in sunspot area/number data during solar cycles with strong hemispheric asymmetry. We suggest that the periodicity is caused by magnetic Rossby waves in the internal dynamo layer. Using the dispersion relation of magnetic Rossby waves and observed Rieger periodicity, we estimated the magnetic field strength in the layer as 45–49 kG in more active hemispheres (north during cycles 19–20 and south during cycles 21–23) and 33–40 kG in weaker hemispheres. The estimated difference in the hemispheric field strength is around 10 kG, which provides a challenge for dynamo models. Total magnetic flux data during cycles 20–23 reveals no clear north–south asymmetry, which needs to be explained in the future.« less

Solar Cycle Dynamics of Solar, Magnetospheric, and Heliospheric Particles, and Long-Term Atmospheric Coupling: SAMPEX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, G. M.; Blake, J. B.; Mazur, J. E.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Stone, E. C.; Baker, D. N.; vonRosenvinge, T. T.; Callis, L. B.; Klecker, B.; Hovestadt, D.;

Global Solar Magnetic Field Organization in the Outer Corona: Influence on the Solar Wind Speed and Mass Flux Over the Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Réville, Victor; Brun, Allan Sacha

2017-11-01

The dynamics of the solar wind depends intrinsically on the structure of the global solar magnetic field, which undergoes fundamental changes over the 11-year solar cycle. For instance, the wind terminal velocity is thought to be anti-correlated with the expansion factor, a measure of how the magnetic field varies with height in the solar corona, usually computed at a fixed height (≈ 2.5 {R}⊙ , the source surface radius that approximates the distance at which all magnetic field lines become open). However, the magnetic field expansion affects the solar wind in a more detailed way, its influence on the solar wind properties remaining significant well beyond the source surface. We demonstrate this using 3D global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the solar corona, constrained by surface magnetograms over half a solar cycle (1989-2001). A self-consistent expansion beyond the solar wind critical point (even up to 10 {R}⊙ ) makes our model comply with observed characteristics of the solar wind, namely, that the radial magnetic field intensity becomes latitude independent at some distance from the Sun, and that the mass flux is mostly independent of the terminal wind speed. We also show that near activity minimum, the expansion in the higher corona has more influence on the wind speed than the expansion below 2.5 {R}⊙ .

Rapid thermal cycling of new technology solar array blanket coupons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheiman, David A.; Smith, Bryan K.; Kurland, Richard M.; Mesch, Hans G.

1990-01-01

NASA Lewis Research Center is conducting thermal cycle testing of a new solar array blanket technologies. These technologies include test coupons for Space Station Freedom (SSF) and the advanced photovoltaic solar array (APSA). The objective of this testing is to demonstrate the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array interconnect design and blanket technology within a low earth orbit (LEO) or geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) thermal cycling environment. Both the SSF and the APSA array survived all rapid thermal cycling with little or no degradation in peak performance. This testing includes an equivalent of 15 years in LEO for SSF test coupons and 30 years of GEO plus ten years of LEO for the APSA test coupon. It is concluded that both the parallel gap welding of the SSF interconnects and the soldering of the APSA interconnects are adequately designed to handle the thermal stresses of space environment temperature extremes.

CHANGES OF THE SOLAR MERIDIONAL VELOCITY PROFILE DURING CYCLE 23 EXPLAINED BY FLOWS TOWARD THE ACTIVITY BELTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schuessler, M., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.d

The solar meridional flow is an important ingredient in Babcock-Leighton type models of the solar dynamo. Global variations of this flow have been suggested to explain the variations in the amplitudes and lengths of the activity cycles. Recently, cycle-related variations in the amplitude of the P{sup 1}{sub 2} term in the Legendre decomposition of the observed meridional flow have been reported. The result is often interpreted in terms of an overall variation in the flow amplitude during the activity cycle. Using a semi-empirical model based upon the observed distribution of magnetic flux on the solar surface, we show that themore » reported variations of the P{sup 1}{sub 2} term can be explained by the observed localized inflows into the active region belts. No variation of the overall meridional flow amplitude is required.« less

Results in orbital evolution of objects in the geosynchronous region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friesen, Larry Jay; Jackson, Albert A., IV; Zook, Herbert A.; Kessler, Donald J.

1990-01-01

The orbital evolution of objects at or near geosynchronous orbit (GEO) has been simulated to investigate possible hazards to working geosynchronous satellites. Orbits of both large satellites and small particles have been simulated, subject to perturbations by nonspherical geopotential terms, lunar and solar gravity, and solar radiation pressure. Large satellites in initially circular orbits show an expected cycle of inclination change driven by lunar and solar gravity, but very little altitude change. They thus have little chance of colliding with objects at other altitudes. However, if such a satellite is disrupted, debris can reach thousands of kilometers above or below the initial satellite altitude. Small particles in GEO experience two cycles driven by solar radiation: an expected eccentricity cycle and an inclination cycle not expected. Particles generated by GEO insertion stage solid rocket motors typically hit the earth or escape promptly; a small fraction appear to remain in persistent orbits.

Sunspot cycle-dependent changes in the distribution of GSE latitudinal angles of IMF observed near 1 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felix Pereira, B.; Girish, T. E.

2004-05-01

The solar cycle variations in the characteristics of the GSE latitudinal angles of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ($\\theta$GSE) observed near 1 AU have been studied for the period 1967-2000. It is observed that the statistical parameters mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis vary with sunspot cycle. The $\\theta$GSE distribution resembles the Gaussian curve during sunspot maximum and is clearly non-Gaussian during sunspot minimum. The width of the $\\theta$GSE distribution is found to increase with sunspot activity, which is likely to depend on the occurrence of solar transients. Solar cycle variations in skewness are ordered by the solar polar magnetic field changes. This can be explained in terms of the dependence of the dominant polarity of the north-south component of IMF in the GSE system near 1 AU on the IMF sector polarity and the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.

NASA welding assessment program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stofel, E. J.

1984-01-01

A long duration test has been conducted for comparing various methods of attaching electrical interconnects to solar cells for near Earth orbit spacecraft. Representative solar array modules have been thermally cycled for 36,000 cycles between -80 and +80 C on this JPL and NASA Lewis Research Center sponsored work. This test simulates the environmental stress of more than 6 years on a near Earth spacecraft as it cycles in and out of the Earth's shadow. Evaluations of the integrity of these modules were made by visual and by electrical examinations before starting the cycling and then at periodic intervals during the cycling tests. Modules included examples of parallel gap and of ultrasonic welding, as well as soldering. The materials and fabrication processes are state of the art, suitable for forming large solar arrays of spacecraft quality. The modules survived his extensive cycling without detectable degradation in their ability to generate power under sunlight illumination.

Periodicities observed on solar flux index (F10.7) during geomagnetic disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, B.; Narayan, C.; Chhatkuli, D. N.

2017-12-01

Solar activities change within the period of 11 years. Sometimes the greatest event occurs in the period of solar maxima and the lowest activity occurs in the period of solar minimum. During the time period of solar activity sunspots number will vary. A 10.7 cm solar flux measurement is a determination of the strength of solar radio emission. The solar flux index is more often used for the prediction and monitoring of the solar activity. This study mainly focused on the variation on solar flux index and amount of electromagnetic wave in the atmosphere. Both seasonal and yearly variation on solar F10.7 index. We also analyzed the dataset obatained from riometer.Both instruments show seasonal and yearly variations. We also observed the solar cycle dependence on solar flux index and found a strong dependence on solar activity. Results also show that solar intensities higher during the rising phase of solar cycle. We also observed periodicities on solar flux index using wavelet analysis. Through this analysis, it was found that the power intensities of solar flux index show a high spectral variability.

Three-dimensional features of the outer heliosphere due to coupling between the interstellar and interplanetary magnetic fields. IV. Solar cycle model based on Ulysses observations

DOE PAGES

Pogorelov, N. V.; Suess, S. T.; Borovikov, S. N.; ...

2013-06-26

The solar cycle has a profound influence on the solar wind (SW) interaction with the local interstellar medium (LISM) on more than one timescales. Also, there are substantial differences in individual solar cycle lengths and SW behavior within them. The presence of a slow SW belt, with a variable latitudinal extent changing within each solar cycle from rather small angles to 90°, separated from the fast wind that originates at coronal holes substantially affects plasma in the inner heliosheath (IHS)—the SW region between the termination shock (TS) and the heliopause (HP). The solar cycle may be the reason why themore » complicated flow structure is observed in the IHS by Voyager 1. Here, we show that a substantial decrease in the SW ram pressure observed by Ulysses between the TS crossings by Voyager 1 and 2 contributes significantly to the difference in the heliocentric distances at which these crossings occurred. The Ulysses spacecraft is the source of valuable information about the three-dimensional and time-dependent properties of the SW. Its unique fast latitudinal scans of the SW regions make it possible to create a solar cycle model based on the spacecraft in situ measurements. On the basis of our analysis of the Ulysses data over the entire life of the mission, we generated time-dependent boundary conditions at 10 AU from the Sun and applied our MHD-neutral model to perform a numerical simulation of the SW-LISM interaction. We analyzed the global variations in the interaction pattern, the excursions of the TS and the HP, and the details of the plasma and magnetic field distributions in the IHS. The resulting numbers are compared with Voyager data as functions of time in the spacecraft frame. We also discuss solar cycle effects which may be reasons for the recent decrease in the TS particles (ions accelerated to anomalous cosmic-ray energies) flux observed by Voyager 1.« less

The solar dynamo and prediction of sunspot cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikpati, Mausumi

2012-07-01

Much progress has been made in understanding the solar dynamo since Parker first developed the concepts of dynamo waves and magnetic buoyancy around 1955, and the German school first formulated the solar dynamo using the mean-field formalism. The essential ingredients of these mean-field dynamos are turbulent magnetic diffusivity, a source of lifting of flux, or 'alpha-effect', and differential rotation. With the advent of helioseismic and other observations at the Sun's photosphere and interior, as well as theoretical understanding of solar interior dynamics, solar dynamo models have evolved both in the realm of mean-field and beyond mean-field models. After briefly discussing the status of these models, I will focus on a class of mean-field model, called flux-transport dynamos, which include meridional circulation as an essential additional ingredient. Flux-transport dynamos have been successful in simulating many global solar cycle features, and have reached the stage that they can be used for making solar cycle predictions. Meridional circulation works in these models like a conveyor-belt, carrying a memory of the magnetic fields from 5 to 20 years back in past. The lower is the magnetic diffusivity, the longer is the model's memory. In the terrestrial system, the great-ocean conveyor-belt in oceanic models and Hadley, polar and Ferrel circulation cells in the troposphere, carry signatures from the past climatological events and influence the determination of future events. Analogously, the memory provided by the Sun's meridional circulation creates the potential for flux-transport dynamos to predict future solar cycle properties. Various groups in the world have built flux-transport dynamo-based predictive tools, which nudge the Sun's surface magnetic data and integrated forward in time to forecast the amplitude of the currently ascending cycle 24. Due to different initial conditions and different choices of unknown model-ingredients, predictions can vary; so it is for their cycle 24 forecasts. We all await the peak of cycle 24. I will close by discussing the prospects of improving dynamo-based predictive tools using more sophisticated data-assimilation techniques, such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter method and variational approaches.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL FEATURES OF THE OUTER HELIOSPHERE DUE TO COUPLING BETWEEN THE INTERSTELLAR AND INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. IV. SOLAR CYCLE MODEL BASED ON ULYSSES OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pogorelov, N. V.; Zank, G. P.; Suess, S. T.

2013-07-20

The solar cycle has a profound influence on the solar wind (SW) interaction with the local interstellar medium (LISM) on more than one timescales. Also, there are substantial differences in individual solar cycle lengths and SW behavior within them. The presence of a slow SW belt, with a variable latitudinal extent changing within each solar cycle from rather small angles to 90 Degree-Sign , separated from the fast wind that originates at coronal holes substantially affects plasma in the inner heliosheath (IHS)-the SW region between the termination shock (TS) and the heliopause (HP). The solar cycle may be the reasonmore » why the complicated flow structure is observed in the IHS by Voyager 1. In this paper, we show that a substantial decrease in the SW ram pressure observed by Ulysses between the TS crossings by Voyager 1 and 2 contributes significantly to the difference in the heliocentric distances at which these crossings occurred. The Ulysses spacecraft is the source of valuable information about the three-dimensional and time-dependent properties of the SW. Its unique fast latitudinal scans of the SW regions make it possible to create a solar cycle model based on the spacecraft in situ measurements. On the basis of our analysis of the Ulysses data over the entire life of the mission, we generated time-dependent boundary conditions at 10 AU from the Sun and applied our MHD-neutral model to perform a numerical simulation of the SW-LISM interaction. We analyzed the global variations in the interaction pattern, the excursions of the TS and the HP, and the details of the plasma and magnetic field distributions in the IHS. Numerical results are compared with Voyager data as functions of time in the spacecraft frame. We discuss solar cycle effects which may be reasons for the recent decrease in the TS particles (ions accelerated to anomalous cosmic-ray energies) flux observed by Voyager 1.« less

Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles: Design Considerations for Concentrating Solar Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neises, Ty; Turchi, Craig

2014-09-01

A comparison of three supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles: the simple cycle, recompression cycle and partial-cooling cycle indicates the partial-cooling cycle is favored for use in concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. Although it displays slightly lower cycle efficiency versus the recompression cycle, the partial-cooling cycle is estimated to have lower total recuperator size, as well as a lower maximum s-CO2 temperature in the high-temperature recuperator. Both of these effects reduce recuperator cost. Furthermore, the partial-cooling cycle provides a larger temperature differential across the turbine, which translates into a smaller, more cost-effective thermal energy storage system. The temperature drop across the turbinemore » (and by extension, across a thermal storage system) for the partial-cooling cycle is estimated to be 23% to 35% larger compared to the recompression cycle of equal recuperator conductance between 5 and 15 MW/K. This reduces the size and cost of the thermal storage system. Simulations by NREL and Abengoa Solar indicate the partial-cooling cycle results in a lower LCOE compared with the recompression cycle, despite the former's slightly lower cycle efficiency. Advantages of the recompression cycle include higher thermal efficiency and potential for a smaller precooler. The overall impact favors the use of a partial-cooling cycle for CSP compared to the more commonly analyzed recompression cycle.« less

Chapter 11: Concentrating Solar Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turchi, Craig S; Stekli, J.; Bueno, P. C.

2017-01-02

This chapter summarizes the applications of the supercritical CO2 (sCO2) Brayton cycle in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. The design and operation of CSP plants are reviewed to highlight the requirements for the power cycle and attributes that are advantageous for the solar-thermal application. The sCO2 Brayton cycle offers the potential of higher cycle efficiency versus superheated or supercritical steam cycles at temperatures relevant for CSP applications. In addition, Brayton cycle systems using sCO2 are anticipated to have smaller weight and volume, lower thermal mass, and less complex power blocks compared with Rankine cycles due to the higher density ofmore » the fluid and simpler cycle design. The simpler machinery and compact size of the sCO2 process may also reduce the installation, maintenance, and operation cost of the system. Power cycle capacities in the range of 10-150 MWe are anticipated for the CSP application. In this chapter, we explore sCO2 Brayton cycle configurations that have attributes that are desirable from the perspective of a CSP application, such as the ability to accommodate dry cooling and daily cycling, as well as integration with thermal energy storage.« less

Stationarity of extreme bursts in the solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moloney, N. R.; Davidsen, J.

2014-05-01

Recent results have suggested that the statistics of bursts in the solar wind vary with solar cycle. Here, we show that this variation is basically absent if one considers extreme bursts. These are defined as threshold-exceeding events over the range of high thresholds for which their number decays as a power law. In particular, we find that the distribution of duration times and energies of extreme bursts in the solar wind ɛ parameter and similar observables are independent of the solar cycle and in this sense stationary, and show robust asymptotic power laws with exponents that are independent of the specific threshold. This is consistent with what has been observed for solar flares and, thus, provides evidence in favor of a link between solar flares and extreme bursts in the solar wind.

TIMED GUVI: Recent Progress and Future Challenges in the Ionosphere, and Thermosphere System Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, R. K.; Paxton, L. J.; Zhang, Y.

2016-12-01

In this paper we review some of the things that we have learned about the response of the thermosphere and ionosphere from the peak of Solar Cycle 23 through the peak of Solar Cycle 24 and now into the declining phase of Solar Cycle 24. We will provide a very brief overview of what the far ultraviolet measurements (such as those from TIMED/GUVI - Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Global UltraViolet Imager) mean and our plans to continue to support the TIMED mission science objectives through the decline of Solar Cycle 24 and into Solar Cycle 25. We will show: 1) the results of our work on the evolution of thermospheric "storm fronts" as imaged in changes in composition (the O/N2 ratio) and how that response varies with longitude, hemisphere and solar cycle 2) the large scale structure of the nightside F-region ionosphere and the variation with longitude and geomagnetic conditions These results show one of the many uses of UV remote sensing from low Earth orbit. We continue to explore the GUVI data set and new products continue to be added to the GUVI website. We continue to provide O/N2 maps and have added NO total column maps. Please see the NEW website: http://guvitimed.jhuapl.eduImages below show the dramatic change in the neutral density as monitored with the O/N2 ratio during the geomagnetic storm of Nov 20, 2003. The previous day (Nov 19, 2003) is also shown for comparison.

Seismic sensitivity to sub-surface solar activity from 18 yr of GOLF/SoHO observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Turck-Chièze, S.

2015-06-01

Solar activity has significantly changed over the last two Schwabe cycles. After a long and deep minimum at the end of Cycle 23, the weaker activity of Cycle 24 contrasts with the previous cycles. In this work, the response of the solar acoustic oscillations to solar activity is used in order to provide insights into the structural and magnetic changes in the sub-surface layers of the Sun during this on-going unusual period of low activity. We analyze 18 yr of continuous observations of the solar acoustic oscillations collected by the Sun-as-a-star GOLF instrument on board the SoHO spacecraft. From the fitted mode frequencies, the temporal variability of the frequency shifts of the radial, dipolar, and quadrupolar modes are studied for different frequency ranges that are sensitive to different layers in the solar sub-surface interior. The low-frequency modes show nearly unchanged frequency shifts between Cycles 23 and 24, with a time evolving signature of the quasi-biennial oscillation, which is particularly visible for the quadrupole component revealing the presence of a complex magnetic structure. The modes at higher frequencies show frequency shifts that are 30% smaller during Cycle 24, which is in agreement with the decrease observed in the surface activity between Cycles 23 and 24. The analysis of 18 yr of GOLF oscillations indicates that the structural and magnetic changes responsible for the frequency shifts remained comparable between Cycle 23 and Cycle 24 in the deeper sub-surface layers below 1400 km as revealed by the low-frequency modes. The frequency shifts of the higher-frequency modes, sensitive to shallower regions, show that Cycle 24 is magnetically weaker in the upper layers of Sun. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgThe following 68 GOLF frequency tables are available and Table A.1 is also available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/578/A137

Cycling of clock genes entrained to the solar rhythm enables plants to tell time: data from Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Yeang, Hoong-Yeet

2015-07-01

An endogenous rhythm synchronized to dawn cannot time photosynthesis-linked genes to peak consistently at noon since the interval between sunrise and noon changes seasonally. In this study, a solar clock model that circumvents this limitation is proposed using two daily timing references synchronized to noon and midnight. Other rhythmic genes that are not directly linked to photosynthesis, and which peak at other times, also find an adaptive advantage in entrainment to the solar rhythm. Fourteen datasets extracted from three published papers were used in a meta-analysis to examine the cyclic behaviour of the Arabidopsis thaliana photosynthesis-related gene CAB2 and the clock oscillator genes TOC1 and LHY in T cycles and N-H cycles. Changes in the rhythms of CAB2, TOC1 and LHY in plants subjected to non-24-h light:dark cycles matched the hypothesized changes in their behaviour as predicted by the solar clock model, thus validating it. The analysis further showed that TOC1 expression peaked ∼5·5 h after mid-day, CAB2 peaked close to noon, while LHY peaked ∼7·5 h after midnight, regardless of the cycle period, the photoperiod or the light:dark period ratio. The solar clock model correctly predicted the zeitgeber timing of these genes under 11 different lighting regimes comprising combinations of seven light periods, nine dark periods, four cycle periods and four light:dark period ratios. In short cycles that terminated before LHY could be expressed, the solar clock correctly predicted zeitgeber timing of its expression in the following cycle. Regulation of gene phases by the solar clock enables the plant to tell the time, by which means a large number of genes are regulated. This facilitates the initiation of gene expression even before the arrival of sunrise, sunset or noon, thus allowing the plant to 'anticipate' dawn, dusk or mid-day respectively, independently of the photoperiod. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hubble Space telescope thermal cycle test report for large solar array samples with BSFR cells (Sample numbers 703 and 704)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, D. W.

1992-01-01

The Hubble space telescope (HST) solar array was designed to meet specific output power requirements after 2 years in low-Earth orbit, and to remain operational for 5 years. The array, therefore, had to withstand 30,000 thermal cycles between approximately +100 and -100 C. The ability of the array to meet this requirement was evaluated by thermal cycle testing, in vacuum, two 128-cell solar cell modules that exactly duplicated the flight HST solar array design. Also, the ability of the flight array to survive an emergency deployment during the dark (cold) portion of an orbit was evaluated by performing a cold-roll test using one module.

The effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and the interplanetary magnetic field over the past 10,000 years, and implications for the future. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCracken, K. G.; McDonald, F. B.; Beer, J.; Abreu, J.; Steinhilber, F.

2009-12-01

The paleo-cosmic ray records based on the radionuclides 10Be and 14 C show that the Sun has experienced twenty two extended periods of low activity (similar to, or longer than the Maunder Minimum) in the past 10,000 years, and many more periods of reduced activity for 2 or more solar cycles similar to the period 1880-1910. The 10,000 yr record shows that solar activity has exhibited three persistent periodicities that modulate the amplitude of the Hale (11/22 year) cycle. They are the Gleissberg (~85 yr); the de Vries (~208 yr); and the Hallstatt (~2200 yr) periodicities. It is possible that the Sun is entering a somewhat delayed Gleissberg repetition of the 1880-1910 period of reduced activity or a de Vries repetition of the Dalton Minimum of 1800-1820; or a combination of both. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity at sunspot minimum increases substantially during periods of reduced solar activity- during the Dalton minimum it was twice the present-day sunspot minimum intensity at 2GeV/nucleon ; and 10 times greater at 100 MeV/nucleon. The Hale cycle of solar activity continued throughout the Spoerer (1420-1540) and Maunder Minima, and it appears possible that the local interstellar cosmic ray spectrum was occasionally incident on Earth. Using the cosmic ray transport equation to invert the paleo-cosmic ray record shows that the magnetic field was <1nT at Hale minima during the Spoerer Minimum and late in the Maunder Minimum. The Sun was at a minimum of the Hallstatt (2200yr) cycle of activity in the 15th century, and is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence suggests that there was a greater production of impulsive solar energetic particle events in the solar cycles of reduced solar activity 1880-1910. Based on these observations, three scenarios for the next several decades will be outlined- (a) a single, deep sunspot minimum followed by an active sun; (b) several cycles of reduced solar activity similar to 1880-1910; and (c) a “Grand Minimum” with one or more 11 year cycles of very low activity similar to the Dalton Minimum.

Adverse Space Weather at the Solar Cycle Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; McCollough, J. P.; Singer, H. J.; Chappell, S. P.; Allen, J. H.

2008-05-01

It is commonly understood that many types of adverse space weather (solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms) occur most commonly around the maximum of the 11-year sunspot activity cycle. Other types of well-known space weather such as relativistic electron events in the Earth's outer magnetosphere (that produce deep dielectric charging in spacecraft systems) are usually associated with the period just after sunspot maximum. At the present time, we are in the very lowest activity phase of the sunspot cycle (solar minimum). As such we would not expect much in the way of adverse space weather events. However, in early to mid-February of 2008 quite prominent solar coronal holes produced two high-speed streams that in turn stimulated very large, long-duration relativistic electron enhancements in Earth's magnetosphere. These seem to have been associated with several spacecraft operational anomalies at various spacecraft orbital locations. We describe these recent space weather events and assess their operational significance in this presentation. These results show that substantial space weather events can and do occur even during the quietest parts of the solar cycle.

Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity in the Upcoming Minimum of the Solar Activity Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krainev, M. B.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Kalinin, M. S.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevskii, N. S.

2018-03-01

During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth's orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum ( 2019-2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).

Nonlinear data assimilation: towards a prediction of the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svedin, Andreas

The solar cycle is the cyclic variation of solar activity, with a span of 9-14 years. The prediction of the solar cycle is an important and unsolved problem with implications for communications, aviation and other aspects of our high-tech society. Our interest is model-based prediction, and we present a self-consistent procedure for parameter estimation and model state estimation, even when only one of several model variables can be observed. Data assimilation is the art of comparing, combining and transferring observed data into a mathematical model or computer simulation. We use the 3DVAR methodology, based on the notion of least squares, to present an implementation of a traditional data assimilation. Using the Shadowing Filter — a recently developed method for nonlinear data assimilation — we outline a path towards model based prediction of the solar cycle. To achieve this end we solve a number of methodological challenges related to unobserved variables. We also provide a new framework for interpretation that can guide future predictions of the Sun and other astrophysical objects.

International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS), "Solar Energy Flux Study: from the interior to the outer layer" — Working Group 1 report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pap, Judit; Fröhlich, Claus

The purpose of this report is to describe the research activities and plans of Working Group 1: "Solar Energy Flux Study: From the Interior to the Outer Layer" of the International Solar Cycle Study (ISCS), which is an international research organization operating under the auspices of the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP). As part of the report, we also summarize the status of the measurements and results on the solar energy flux variations. The main objective of ISCS's Working Group 1 is to coordinate and support comprehensive international research of the variations in the solar energy flux during the rising portion and maximum of solar cycle 23. The research activities of ISCS's Working Group 1 will concentrate on the following tasks: (1) to measure and study the variations in the solar radiative and mass output and solar activity indices during the solar activity cycle, (2) to understand why the solar radiative and mass output and the solar activity indices vary during the solar cycle, and (3) to study the role of solar variability in solar-terrestrial changes and its contribution to global change. ISCS WG1 "Solar Energy Flux Study: From the Interior to the Outer Layer" has been divided into three panels: •| Panel 1: Variations in Total and Spectral Irradiance from Infrared to Far UV. Panel leaders: Martin Anklin of the Physikalisch-Meteorologishes Observatorium Davos, Switzerland (total irradiance), Gerard Thuillier of the Service d'Aeronomie-CNRS, Verrieres, France (visible and infrared), and Linton Floyd of the Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, USA (ultraviolet). •| Panel 2: Variations in EUV, X-ray and Particle Fluxes. Panel leaders: Gerhard Schmidtke of Fraunhofer IPM, Freiburg, Germany and W. Kent Tobiska of FDC/Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA (EUV/XUV), and David Winningham of the Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX, USA (particles). •| Panel 3: Solar Indices, Cosmogenic Isotopes, Solar-Stellar Relations. Panel leaders: Gary Chapman of the San Fernando Observatory, CSUN, Northridge, CA, USA (solar indices), Juerg Beer of Institute for Environmental Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland (cosmogenic isotopes), and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA, USA (solar-stellar relations). The first two panels concentrate on solar energy flux measurements, whereas the third panel concentrates on solar indices and alternative ways to model and predict irradiance variations at various wavelengths and their terrestrial/climate effects. Working Group 1 of ISCS has supported and adopted the "Thermospheric-Ionospheric Geospheric Research (TIGER)" program as part of ISCS/WG1/Panel 2. The main objectives of TIGER are to measure, model, and interpret solar EUV/UV and particle fluxes and to study and model their effect on the Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere (see details by Schmidtke et al., 2001, this volume). This approach links ISCS/WG1 activities directly with studies of our space environment.

Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics.

PubMed

Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

2013-05-01

On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996-2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum.

Burst annealing of high temperature GaAs solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brothers, P. R.; Horne, W. E.

1991-01-01

One of the major limitations of solar cells in space power systems is their vulnerability to radiation damage. One solution to this problem is to periodically heat the cells to anneal the radiation damage. Annealing was demonstrated with silicon cells. The obstacle to annealing of GaAs cells was their susceptibility to thermal damage at the temperatures required to completely anneal the radiation damage. GaAs cells with high temperature contacts and encapsulation were developed. The cells tested are designed for concentrator use at 30 suns AMO. The circular active area is 2.5 mm in diameter for an area of 0.05 sq cm. Typical one sun AMO efficiency of these cells is over 18 percent. The cells were demonstrated to be resistant to damage after thermal excursions in excess of 600 C. This high temperature tolerance should allow these cells to survive the annealing of radiation damage. A limited set of experiments were devised to investigate the feasibility of annealing these high temperature cells. The effect of repeated cycles of electron and proton irradiation was tested. The damage mechanisms were analyzed. Limitations in annealing recovery suggested improvements in cell design for more complete recovery. These preliminary experiments also indicate the need for further study to isolate damage mechanisms. The primary objective of the experiments was to demonstrate and quantify the annealing behavior of high temperature GaAs cells. Secondary objectives were to measure the radiation degradation and to determine the effect of repeated irradiation and anneal cycles.

The evolution of 1 AU equatorial solar wind and its association with the morphology of the heliospheric current sheet from solar cycles 23 to 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

2014-09-20

The solar wind can be categorized into three types based on its 'freeze-in' temperature (T {sub freeze-in}) in the coronal source: low T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from coronal holes, high T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from regions outside of coronal holes, including streamers (helmet streamer and pseudostreamer), active regions, etc., and transient interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) usually possessing the hottest T {sub freeze-in}. The global distribution of these three types of wind has been investigated by examining the most effective T {sub freeze-in} indicator, the O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio, as measured by the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometermore » on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) during 1998-2008 by Zhao et al. In this study, we extend the previous investigation to 2011 June, covering the unusual solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2007-2010) and the beginning of solar cycle 24. We find that during the entire solar cycle, from the ascending phase of cycle 23 in 1998 to the ascending phase of cycle 24 in 2011, the average fractions of the low O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (LOR) wind, the high O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (HOR) wind, and ICMEs at 1 AU are 50.3%, 39.4%, and 10.3%, respectively; the contributions of the three types of wind evolve with time in very different ways. In addition, we compare the evolution of the HOR wind with two heliospheric current sheet (HCS) parameters, which indicate the latitudinal standard deviation (SD) and the slope (SL) of the HCS on the synoptic Carrington maps at 2.5 solar radii surface. We find that the fraction of HOR wind correlates with SD and SL very well (slightly better with SL than with SD), especially after 2005. This result verifies the link between the production of HOR wind and the morphology of the HCS, implying that at least one of the major sources of the HOR wind must be associated with the HCS.« less

Dynamic Power Spectral Analysis of Solar Measurements from Photospheric, Chromospheric, and Coronal Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouwer, S. D.; Pap, J.; Donnelly, R. F.

1990-01-01

An important aspect in the power spectral analysis of solar variability is the quasistationary and quasiperiodic nature of solar periodicities. In other words, the frequency, phase, and amplitude of solar periodicities vary on time scales ranging from active region lifetimes to solar cycle time scales. Here, researchers employ a dynamic, or running, power spectral density analysis to determine many periodicities and their time-varying nature in the projected area of active sunspot groups (S sub act). The Solar Maximum Mission/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (SMM/ACRIM) total solar irradiance (S), the Nimbus-7 MgII center-to-wing ratio (R (MgII sub c/w)), the Ottawa 10.7 cm flux (F sub 10.7), and the GOES background x ray flux (X sub b) for the maximum, descending, and minimum portions of solar cycle 21 (i.e., 1980 to 1986) are used. The technique dramatically illustrates several previously unrecognized periodicities. For example, a relatively stable period at about 51 days has been found in those indices which are related to emerging magnetic fields. The majority of solar periodicities, particularly around 27, 150 and 300 days, are quasiperiodic because they vary in amplitude and frequency throughout the solar cycle. Finally, it is shown that there are clear differences between the power spectral densities of solar measurements from photospheric, chromospheric, and coronal sources.

UV solar irradiance in observations and the NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, K. L.; Ball, W. T.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Unruh, Y. C.; Morrill, J.

2015-08-01

Total solar irradiance and UV spectral solar irradiance has been monitored since 1978 through a succession of space missions. This is accompanied by the development of models aimed at replicating solar irradiance by relating the variability to solar magnetic activity. The Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models provide the most comprehensive reconstructions of total and spectral solar irradiance over the period of satellite observation currently available. There is persistent controversy between the various measurements and models in terms of the wavelength dependence of the variation over the solar cycle, with repercussions on our understanding of the influence of UV solar irradiance variability on the stratosphere. We review the measurement and modeling of UV solar irradiance variability over the period of satellite observation. The SATIRE-S reconstruction is consistent with spectral solar irradiance observations where they are reliable. It is also supported by an independent, empirical reconstruction of UV spectral solar irradiance based on Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor measurements from an earlier study. The weaker solar cycle variability produced by NRLSSI between 300 and 400 nm is not evident in any available record. We show that although the method employed to construct NRLSSI is principally sound, reconstructed solar cycle variability is detrimentally affected by the uncertainty in the SSI observations it draws upon in the derivation. Based on our findings, we recommend, when choosing between the two models, the use of SATIRE-S for climate studies.

ACTIVITY-BRIGHTNESS CORRELATIONS FOR THE SUN AND SUN-LIKE STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preminger, D. G.; Chapman, G. A.; Cookson, A. M.

2011-10-01

We analyze the effect of solar features on the variability of the solar irradiance in three different spectral ranges. Our study is based on two solar-cycles' worth of full-disk photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory, obtained with red, blue, and Ca II K-line filters. For each image we measure the photometric sum, {Sigma}, which is the relative contribution of solar features to the disk-integrated intensity of the image. The photometric sums in the red and blue continuum, {Sigma}{sub r} and {Sigma}{sub b}, exhibit similar temporal patterns: they are negatively correlated with solar activity, with strong short-term variability, and weakmore » solar-cycle variability. However, the Ca II K-line photometric sum, {Sigma}{sub K}, is positively correlated with solar activity and has strong variations on solar-cycle timescales. We show that we can model the variability of the Sun's bolometric flux as a linear combination of {Sigma}{sub r} and {Sigma}{sub K}. We infer that, over solar-cycle timescales, the variability of the Sun's bolometric irradiance is directly correlated with spectral line variability, but inversely correlated with continuum variability. Our blue and red continuum filters are quite similar to the Stroemgren b and y filters used to measure stellar photometric variability. We conclude that active stars whose visible continuum brightness varies inversely with activity, as measured by the Ca HK index, are displaying a pattern that is similar to that of the Sun, i.e., radiative variability in the visible continuum that is spot-dominated.« less

Data quantile-quantile plots: quantifying the time evolution of space climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, Elizabeth; Chapman, Sandra

2017-04-01

The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of spatio-temporal scales; embedded in the flow are the signatures of distinct non-linear physical processes from evolving turbulence to the dynamical solar corona. In-situ satellite observations of solar wind magnetic field and velocity are at minute and below time resolution and now extend over several solar cycles. Each solar cycle is unique, and the space climatology challenge is to quantify how solar wind variability changes within, and across, each distinct solar cycle, and how this in turn drives space weather at earth. We will demonstrate a novel statistical method, that of data-data quantile-quantile (DQQ) plots, which quantifies how the underlying statistical distribution of a given observable is changing in time. Importantly this method does not require any assumptions concerning the underlying functional form of the distribution and can identify multi-component behaviour that is changing in time. This can be used to determine when a sub-range of a given observable is undergoing a change in statistical distribution, or where the moments of the distribution only are changing and the functional form of the underlying distribution is not changing in time. The method is quite general; for this application we use data from the WIND satellite to compare the solar wind across the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 [1], and how these changes are manifest in parameters that quantify coupling to the earth's magnetosphere. [1] Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920.

On the Relationship Between Solar Wind Speed, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Solar Cycle Using Annual Values

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2008-01-01

The aa index can be decomposed into two separate components: the leading sporadic component due to solar activity as measured by sunspot number and the residual or recurrent component due to interplanetary disturbances, such as coronal holes. For the interval 1964-2006, a highly statistically important correlation (r = 0.749) is found between annual averages of the aa index and the solar wind speed (especially between the residual component of aa and the solar wind speed, r = 0.865). Because cyclic averages of aa (and the residual component) have trended upward during cycles 11-23, cyclic averages of solar wind speed are inferred to have also trended upward.

A theoretical model of the variation of the meridional circulation with the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Gopal; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

2017-12-01

Observations of the meridional circulation of the Sun, which plays a key role in the operation of the solar dynamo, indicate that its speed varies with the solar cycle, becoming faster during the solar minima and slower during the solar maxima. To explain this variation of the meridional circulation with the solar cycle, we construct a theoretical model by coupling the equation of the meridional circulation (the ϕ component of the vorticity equation within the solar convection zone) with the equations of the flux transport dynamo model. We consider the back reaction due to the Lorentz force of the dynamo-generated magnetic fields and study the perturbations produced in the meridional circulation due to it. This enables us to model the variations of the meridional circulation without developing a full theory of the meridional circulation itself. We obtain results which reproduce the observational data of solar cycle variations of the meridional circulation reasonably well. We get the best results on assuming the turbulent viscosity acting on the velocity field to be comparable to the magnetic diffusivity (i.e. on assuming the magnetic Prandtl number to be close to unity). We have to assume an appropriate bottom boundary condition to ensure that the Lorentz force cannot drive a flow in the subadiabatic layers below the bottom of the tachocline. Our results are sensitive to this bottom boundary condition. We also suggest a hypothesis on how the observed inward flow towards the active regions may be produced.

SYSTEMATIC REGULARITY OF HEMISPHERIC SUNSPOT AREAS OVER THE PAST 140 YEARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deng, L. H.; Xiang, Y. Y.; Qu, Z. N.

2016-03-15

Solar magnetic activity varies with time in the two hemispheres in different ways. The hemispheric interconnection of solar activity phenomena provides an important clue to understanding the dynamical behavior of solar dynamo actions. In this paper, several analysis approaches are proposed to analyze the systematic regularity of hemispheric asynchronism and amplitude asymmetry of long-term sunspot areas during solar cycles 9–24. It is found that, (1) both the hemispheric asynchronism and the amplitude asymmetry of sunspot areas are prevalent behaviors and are not anomalous, but the hemispheric asynchronism exhibits a much more regular behavior than the amplitude asymmetry; (2) the phase-leadingmore » hemisphere returns back to the identical hemisphere every 8 solar cycles, and the secular periodic pattern of hemispheric phase differences follows 3 (south leading) + 5 (north leading) solar cycles, which probably corresponds to the Gleissberg cycle; and (3) the pronounced periodicities of (absolute and normalized) asymmetry indices and lines of synchronization (LOSs) are not identical: the significant periodic oscillations are 80.65 ± 6.31, 20.91 ± 0.40, and 13.45 ± 0.16 years for the LOS values, and 51.34 ± 2.48, 8.83/8.69 ± 0.07, and 3.77 ± 0.02 years for the (absolute and normalized) asymmetry indices. The analysis results improve our knowledge on the hemispheric interrelation of solar magnetic activity and may provide valuable constraints for solar dynamo models.« less

Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mursula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993-2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Repeated Structures Found After the Solar Maximum in the Butterfly Diagrams of Coronal Holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofer, M. Y.; Storini, M.

2003-09-01

The influence of the solar cycle evolution on the coronal hole space-time distribution is well known, for polar as well as for equatorial isolated sources of high speed solar wind. Among them the long-lived coronal holes occurrence from the sunspot cycle 21 on is investigated, using the coronal hole catalogue based on HeI (1083 nm) observations (Sanchez-Ibarra and Barraza-Paredes). In at least these two solar cycles (n. 21 and n. 22) a similar structure in the latitude-time diagram of coronal holes is found. The area occurs shortly after the solar maximum at around ~35° heliolatitude and consists of over several Carrington Rotations stable coronal holes (>5 Carr. Rot.s). The diagonal disappears 2-3 years later at the helioequator. Furthermore, the analysis results in a close relation between long-lived isolated coronal holes and the soft X-class flares.

ACRIM total solar irradiance monitoring during solar cycles 21 - 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willson, R.; Mordvinov, A.

A series of Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitoring experiments have provided state of the art Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) results during the 20 of past 22 years during solar activity cycles 21 - 23. A composite TSI record of more than 23 years has been constructed using results from the Nimbus7/ERB, SMM/ACRIM1, UARS/ACRIM2, SOHO/VIRGO and ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 experiments. An upward trend in TSI between the successive solar cycle minima of 1986 and 1996 has been found in this r cord with a slope of 0.04 % per decade. If a trend ofe comparable magnitude were sustained on multi-decadal or century timescales, TSI variation could be an important component of climate change. Overlap and redundancy of TSI flight experiments have been e sential in the compilation of as precision TSI database. The strategy required to extend it depends crucially on the accuracy, precision and redundancy of future experiments.

Subsurface Zonal and Meridional Flows from SDO/HMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komm, Rudolf; Howe, Rachel; Hill, Frank

2016-10-01

We study the solar-cycle variation of the zonal and meridional flows in the near-surface layers of the solar convection zone from the surface to a depth of about 16 Mm. The flows are determined from SDO/HMI Dopplergrams using the HMI ring-diagram pipeline. The zonal and meridional flows vary with the solar cycle. Bands of faster-than-average zonal flows together with more-poleward-than-average meridional flows move from mid-latitudes toward the equator during the solar cycle and are mainly located on the equatorward side of the mean latitude of solar magnetic activity. Similarly, bands of slower-than-average zonal flows together with less-poleward-than-average meridional flows are located on the poleward side of the mean latitude of activity. Here, we will focus on the variation of these flows at high latitudes (poleward of 50 degree) that are now accessible using HMI data. We will present the latest results.

An Early Prediction of Sunspot Cycle 25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandy, D.; Bhowmik, P.

2017-12-01

The Sun's magnetic activity governs our space environment, creates space weather and impacts our technologies and climate. With increasing reliance on space- and ground-based technologies that are subject to space weather, the need to be able to forecast the future activity of the Sun has assumed increasing importance. However, such long-range, decadal-scale space weather prediction has remained a great challenge as evident in the diverging forecasts for solar cycle 24. Based on recently acquired understanding of the physics of solar cycle predictability, we have devised a scheme to extend the forecasting window of solar cycles. Utilizing this we present an early forecast for sunspot cycle 25 which would be of use for space mission planning, satellite life-time estimates, and assessment of the long-term impacts of space weather on technological assets and planetary atmospheres.

Radiation belt electron dynamics at low L (<4): Van Allen Probes era versus previous two solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Baker, D. N.; Zhao, H.; Zhang, K.; Jaynes, A. N.; Schiller, Q.; Kanekal, S. G.; Blake, J. B.; Temerin, M.

2017-05-01

Long-term (>2 solar cycles) measurements reveal that MeV electron fluxes, solar wind speed, and geomagnetic activity have been extremely low during this current solar cycle, including years before and during the Van Allen Probes era. This study examines solar wind speed, the geomagnetic storm index (Dst), >2 MeV electrons at geostationary orbit, and 2 MeV electrons across various L shells measured by Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer in low Earth orbit (LEO) and by the Van Allen Probes/Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope (REPT) in a geotransfer-like orbit; the latter measurements are normalized to LEO based on comparison with Colorado Student Space Weather Experiment/Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope integrated little experiment (REPTile) measurements in LEO. The average ratio of REPTile/REPT varies in a systematic manner with L, 16% at L = 2.7, decreasing with L and reaching 0.7% at L = 4.7, and increasing again with L though with greater uncertainty. We show that there have been no 2 MeV electron enhancements inside L 2.6 since 2006, prior to which numerous penetrations of 2 MeV electrons into L < 2.5 were measured during periods of stronger solar wind conditions (in terms of high-speed solar wind, magnitude of interplanetary magnetic field, B, and a sustained southward Bz) and thus stronger geomagnetic activity. We conclude that results from the Van Allen Probes, which have been providing the finest measurements but in operation during a quiet solar activity period, may not be representative of radiation belt dynamics, particularly for the inner edge of the outer belt, during other solar cycle phases.

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Hemispheric Patterns in Electric Current Helicity of Solar Magnetic Fields During Solar Cycle 24: Results from SOLIS, SDO and Hinode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusain, S.

2017-12-01

We study the hemispheric patterns in electric current helicity distribution on the Sun. Magnetic field vector in the photosphere is now routinely measured by variety of instruments. SOLIS/VSM of NSO observes full disk Stokes spectra in photospheric lines which are used to derive vector magnetograms. Hinode SP is a space based spectropolarimeter which has the same observable as SOLIS albeit with limited field-of-view (FOV) but high spatial resolution. SDO/HMI derives vector magnetograms from full disk Stokes measurements, with rather limited spectral resolution, from space in a different photospheric line. Further, these datasets now exist for several years. SOLIS/VSM from 2003, Hinode SP from 2006, and SDO HMI since 2010. Using these time series of vector magnetograms we compute the electric current density in active regions during solar cycle 24 and study the hemispheric distributions. Many studies show that the helicity parameters and proxies show a strong hemispheric bias, such that Northern hemisphere has preferentially negative and southern positive helicity, respectively. We will confirm these results for cycle 24 from three different datasets and evaluate the statistical significance of the hemispheric bias. Further, we discuss the solar cycle variation in the hemispheric helicity pattern during cycle 24 and discuss its implications in terms of solar dynamo models.

Ground Level Enhancement in the 2014 January 6 Solar Energetic Particle Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thakur, N.; Gopalswamy, N.; Xie, H.; Makela, P.; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Davila, J. M.

2014-01-01

We present a study of the 2014 January 6 solar energetic particle event which produced a small ground level enhancement (GLE), making it the second GLE of this unusual solar cycle 24. This event was primarily observed by the South Pole neutron monitors (increase of approximately 2.5 percent) while a few other neutron monitors recorded smaller increases. The associated coronal mass ejection (CME) originated behind the western limb and had a speed of 1960 kilometers per second. The height of the CME at the start of the associated metric type II radio burst, which indicates the formation of a strong shock, was measured to be 1.61 solar radii using a direct image from STEREO-A/EUVI. The CME height at the time of the GLE particle release (determined using the South Pole neutron monitor data) was directly measured as 2.96 solar radii based on STEREO-A/COR1 white-light observations. These CME heights are consistent with those obtained for GLE71, the only other GLE of the current cycle, as well as cycle-23 GLEs derived using back-extrapolation. GLE72 is of special interest because it is one of only two GLEs of cycle 24, one of two behind-the-limb GLEs, and one of the two smallest GLEs of cycles 23 and 24.

Migration and Extension of Solar Active Longitudinal Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyenge, N.; Baranyi, T.; Ludmány, A.

2014-02-01

Solar active longitudes show a characteristic migration pattern in the Carrington coordinate system if they can be identified at all. By following this migration, the longitudinal activity distribution around the center of the band can be determined. The half-width of the distribution is found to be varying in Cycles 21 - 23, and in some time intervals it was as narrow as 20 - 30 degrees. It was more extended around a maximum but it was also narrow when the activity jumped to the opposite longitude. Flux emergence exhibited a quasi-periodic variation within the active zone with a period of about 1.3 years. The path of the active-longitude migration does not support the view that it might be associated with the 11-year solar cycle. These results were obtained for a limited time interval of a few solar cycles and, bearing in mind uncertainties of the migration-path definition, are only indicative. For the major fraction of the dataset no systematic active longitudes were found. Sporadic migration of active longitudes was identified only for Cycles 21 - 22 in the northern hemisphere and Cycle 23 in the southern hemisphere.

Solar Cycle Variations and Equatorial Oscillations: Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Drob, D. P.; Chan, K. L.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle, It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes referred to as "downward control". Relatively small changes in solar radiative forcing can produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but this in turn can produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D (two-dimensional) version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1 % at the surface to 1 % at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is inconsequential. At 20-km the differences in the modeled wind velocities are as large as 5 m/s. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing (through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)) acts as a strong pacemaker to lockup the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with the QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux radiance variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase that amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. These variations also extend to mid latitudes.

Modeling thermospheric neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying

Satellite drag prediction requires determination of thermospheric neutral density. The NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) and the global-mean Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM) were used to quantify thermospheric neutral density and its variations, focusing on annual/semiannual variation, the effect of using measured solar irradiance on model calculations of solar-cycle variation, and global change in the thermosphere. Satellite drag data and the MSIS00 empirical model were utilized to compare to the TIEGCM simulations. The TIEGCM simulations indicated that eddy diffusion and its annual/semiannual variation is a mechanism for annual/semiannual density variation in the thermosphere. It was found that eddy diffusion near the turbopause can effectively influence thermospheric neutral density. Eddy diffusion, together with annual insolation variation and large-scale circulation, generated global annual/semiannual density variation observed by satellite drag. Using measured solar irradiance as solar input for the TIEGCM improved the solar-cycle dependency of the density calculation shown in F10.7 -based thermospheric empirical models. It has been found that the empirical models overestimate density at low solar activity. The TIEGCM simulations did not show such solar-cycle dependency. Using historic measurements of CO2 and F 10.7, simulations of the global-mean TIMEGCM showed that thermospheric neutral density at 400 km had an average long-term decrease of 1.7% per decade from 1970 to 2000. A forecast of density decrease for solar cycle 24 suggested that thermospheric density will decrease at 400 km from present to the end of solar cycle 24 at a rate of 2.7% per decade. Reduction in thermospheric density causes less atmospheric drag on earth-orbiting space objects. The implication of this long-term decrease of thermospheric neutral density is that it will increase the lifetime of satellites, but also it will increase the amount of space junk.

Evaluation of solar irradiance models for climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William; Yeo, Kok-Leng; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami; Unruh, Yvonne; Morrill, Jeff

2015-04-01

Instruments on satellites have been observing both Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Spectral Solar Irradiance (SSI), mainly in the ultraviolet (UV), since 1978. Models were developed to reproduce the observed variability and to compute the variability at wavelengths that were not observed or had an uncertainty too high to determine an accurate rotational or solar cycle variability. However, various models and measurements show different solar cycle SSI variability that lead to different modelled responses of ozone and temperature in the stratosphere, mainly due to the different UV variability in each model, and the global energy balance. The NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models are the most comprehensive reconstructions of solar irradiance variability for the period from 1978 to the present day. But while NRLSSI and SATIRE-S show similar solar cycle variability below 250 nm, between 250 and 400 nm SATIRE-S typically displays 50% larger variability, which is however, still significantly less then suggested by recent SORCE data. Due to large uncertainties and inconsistencies in some observational datasets, it is difficult to determine in a simple way which model is likely to be closer to the true solar variability. We review solar irradiance variability measurements and modelling and employ new analysis that sheds light on the causes of the discrepancies between the two models and with the observations.

Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

2012-10-01

Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

Solar cycle evolution of solar wind speed structure between 1973 and 1985 observed with the interplanetary scintillation method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kojima, M.; Kakinuma, T.

1987-07-01

The solar cycle evolution of solar wind speed structure was studied for the years from 1973 to 1985 on a basis of interplanetary scintillation observations using a new method for mapping solar wind speed to the source surface. The major minimum-speed regions are distributed along a neutral line through the whole period of a solar cycle: when solar activity is low, they are distributed on the wavy neutral line along the solar equator; in the active phase they also tend to be distributed along the neutral line, which has a large latitudinal amplitude. The minimum-speed regions tend to be distributedmore » not only along the neutral line but also at low magnetic intensity regions and/or coronal bright regions which do not correspond to the neutral line. As the polar high-speed regions extend equatorward around the minimum phase, the latitudinal gradient of speed increases at the boundaries of the low-speed region, and the width of the low-speed region decreases. One or two years before the minimum of solar activity, two localized minimum-speed regions appear on the neutral line, and their locations are longitudinally separated by 180. copyright American Geophysical Union 1987« less

Erythrocytes Functional Features in the 11-YEAR Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parshina, S. S.; Tokayeva, L. K.; Dolgova, E. M.; Afanas'yeva, T. N.; Samsonov, S. N.; Petrova, V. D.; Vodolagina, E. S.; Kaplanova, T. I.; Potapova, M. V.

There had been studied features of rheological blood failures in patients with unstable angina (UA) in periods of the high (HSA) and low solar activity (LSA) in the 23rd 11-year solar cycle. This category of patients is characterized by prethrombotic blood state, although they don't have coronary thrombosis. The research aimed to study compensatory mechanisms which block thrombosis development at the solar activity increase. There had been established that the period of the solar activity increasing in the 11-year solar cycle is characterized by an increase of a blood viscosity, comparing with the period of a low solar activity. Though, erythrocytes functional features in this case are compensatory mechanisms - erythrocyte aggregation paradoxically reduced and their deformability increases. It is probably connected with the revealed fibrinogen decrease in the period of the high solar activity. We can see that the change of a solar activity is accompanied not only by the progressing of pathologic processes, but also by an activation of adaptive changes in erythrocyte membrane so0 as to prevent thrombosis. Though, the required compensatory mechanisms were found invalid, which were shown in the decrease of an oxygen delivery to tissues, and the effectiveness decrease of the medical treatment in the period of a HSA.

Modeling the heliolatitudinal gradient of the solar wind parameters with exact MHD solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lima, J. J. G.; Tsinganos, K.

1995-01-01

The heliolatitudinal dependence of observations of the solar wind macroscopic quantities such as the averaged proton speed, density and the mass and momentum flux are modeled. The published observations covering the last two and a half solar cycles, are obtained either via the technique of interplanetary scintillations for the last 2 solar cycles (1970-1990), or, from the plasma experiment aboard the ULYSSES spacecraft for the recent period 1990-1994. Exact, two dimensional solutions of the full set of the steady MHD equations are used which are obtained through a nonlinear separation of the variables in the MHD equations. The three parameters emerging from the solutions are fixed from these observations, as well as from observations of the solar rotation. It is found that near solar maximum the solar wind speed is uniformly low, around the 400 km/s over a wide range of latitudes. On the other hand, during solar minimum and the declining phase of the solar activity cycle, there is a strong heliolatitudinal gradient in proton speed between 400-800 from equator to pole. This modeling also agrees with previous findings that the gradient in wind speed with the latitude is offset by a gradient in density such that the mass and momentum flux vary relatively little.

Energetic Particles in the Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malandraki, Olga

2016-07-01

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are a key ingredient of Solar-Terrestrial Physics both for fundamental research and space weather applications. SEP events are the defining component of solar radiation storms, contribute to radio blackouts in polar regions and are related to many of the fastest Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) driving major geomagnetic storms. In addition to CMEs, SEPs are also related to flares. In this work, the current state of knowledge on the SEP field will be reviewed. Key issues to be covered and discussed include: the current understanding of the origin, acceleration and transport processes of SEPs at the Sun and in the inner heliosphere, lessons learned from multi-spacecraft SEP observations, statistical quantification of the comparison of solar events and SEP events of the current solar cycle 24 with previous solar cycles, causes of the solar-cycle variations in SEP fluencies and composition, theoretical work and current SEP acceleration models. Furthermore, the outstanding issues that constitute a knowledge gap in the field will be presented and discussed, as well as future directions and expected advances from the observational and modeling perspective, also in view of the unique observations provided by the upcoming Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus missions. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

Maunder's Butterfly Diagram in the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.

2005-01-01

E. Walter Maunder created his first "Butterfly Diagram" showing the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes over the course of each of two solar cycles in 1903. This diagram was constructed from data obtained through the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) starting in 1874. The RGO continued to acquire data up until 1976. Fortunately, the US Air Force (USAF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have continued to acquire similar data since that time. This combined RGO/USAF/NOAA dataset on sunspot group positions and areas now extends virtually unbroken from the 19th century to the 21st century. The data represented in the Butterfly Diagram contain a wealth of information about solar activity and the solar cycle. Solar activity (as represented by the sunspots) appears at mid-latitudes at the start of each cycle. The bands of activity spread in each hemisphere and then drift toward the equator as the cycle progresses. Although the equator itself tends to be avoided, the spread of activity reaches the equator at about the time of cycle maximum. The cycles overlap at minimum with old cycle spots appearing near the equator while new cycle spots emerge in the mid-latitudes. Large amplitude cycles tend to have activity starting at higher latitudes with the activity spreading to higher latitudes as well. Large amplitude cycles also tend to be preceded by earlier cycles with faster drift rates. These drift rates may be tied to the Sun s meridional circulation - a component in many dynamo theories for the origin of the sunspot cycle. The Butterfly Diagram must be reproduced in any successful dynamo model for the Sun.

On the predictive potential of Pc5 ULF waves to forecast relativistic electrons based on their relationships over two solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Hing-Lan

2017-01-01

A statistical study of relativistic electron (>2 MeV) fluence derived from geosynchronous satellites and Pc5 ultralow frequency (ULF) wave power computed from a ground magnetic observatory data located in Canada's auroral zone has been carried out. The ground observations were made near the foot points of field lines passing through the GOESs from 1987 to 2009 (cycles 22 and 23). We determine statistical relationships between the two quantities for different phases of a solar cycle and validate these relationships in two different cycles. There is a positive linear relationship between log fluence and log Pc5 power for all solar phases; however, the power law indices vary for different phases of the cycle. High index values existed during the descending phase. The Pearson's cross correlation between electron fluence and Pc5 power indicates fluence enhancement 2-3 days after strong Pc5 wave activity for all solar phases. The lag between the two quantities is shorter for extremely high fluence (due to high Pc5 power), which tends to occur during the declining phases of both cycles. Most occurrences of extremely low fluence were observed during the extended solar minimum of cycle 23. The precursory attribute of Pc5 power with respect to fluence and the enhancement of fluence due to rising Pc5 power both support the notion of an electron acceleration mechanism by Pc5 ULF waves. This precursor behavior establishes the potential of using Pc5 power to predict relativistic electron fluence.

Proterozoic Milankovitch cycles and the history of the solar system.

PubMed

Meyers, Stephen R; Malinverno, Alberto

2018-06-19

The geologic record of Milankovitch climate cycles provides a rich conceptual and temporal framework for evaluating Earth system evolution, bestowing a sharp lens through which to view our planet's history. However, the utility of these cycles for constraining the early Earth system is hindered by seemingly insurmountable uncertainties in our knowledge of solar system behavior (including Earth-Moon history), and poor temporal control for validation of cycle periods (e.g., from radioisotopic dates). Here we address these problems using a Bayesian inversion approach to quantitatively link astronomical theory with geologic observation, allowing a reconstruction of Proterozoic astronomical cycles, fundamental frequencies of the solar system, the precession constant, and the underlying geologic timescale, directly from stratigraphic data. Application of the approach to 1.4-billion-year-old rhythmites indicates a precession constant of 85.79 ± 2.72 arcsec/year (2σ), an Earth-Moon distance of 340,900 ± 2,600 km (2σ), and length of day of 18.68 ± 0.25 hours (2σ), with dominant climatic precession cycles of ∼14 ky and eccentricity cycles of ∼131 ky. The results confirm reduced tidal dissipation in the Proterozoic. A complementary analysis of Eocene rhythmites (∼55 Ma) illustrates how the approach offers a means to map out ancient solar system behavior and Earth-Moon history using the geologic archive. The method also provides robust quantitative uncertainties on the eccentricity and climatic precession periods, and derived astronomical timescales. As a consequence, the temporal resolution of ancient Earth system processes is enhanced, and our knowledge of early solar system dynamics is greatly improved.

A Correlation Between Changes in Solar Luminosity and Differential Radius Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kroll, R. J.; Hill, H. A.; Beardsley, B. J.

1990-01-01

Solar luminosity variations occurring during solar cycle 21 can be attributed in large part to the presence of sunspots and faculae. Nevertheless, there remains a residual portion of the luminosity variation distinctly unaccounted for by these phenomena of solar activity. At the Santa Catalina Laboratory for Experimental Relativity by Astrometry (SCLERA), observations of the solar limb are capable of detecting changes in the solar limb darkening function by monitoring a quantity known as the differential radius. These observations are utilized in such a way that the effects of solar activity are minimized in order to reveal the more fundamental structure of the photosphere. The results of observations made during solar cycle 21 at various solar latitudes indicate that a measurable change did occur in the global photospheric limb darkening function. It is proposed that the residual luminosity change is associated in part with this change in limb darkening.

Influence of geomagnetic activity and atmospheric pressure on human arterial pressure during the solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azcárate, T.; Mendoza, B.; Levi, J. R.

2016-11-01

We performed a study of the systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) arterial blood pressure behavior under natural variables such as the atmospheric pressure (AtmP) and the horizontal geomagnetic field component (H). We worked with a sample of 304 healthy normotense volunteers, 152 men and 152 women, with ages between 18 and 84 years in Mexico City during the period 2008-2014, corresponding to the minimum, ascending and maximum phases of the solar cycle 24. The data was divided by gender, age and day/night cycle. We studied the time series using three methods: Correlations, bivariate and superposed epochs (within a window of three days around the day of occurrence of a geomagnetic storm) analysis, between the SBP and DBP and the natural variables (AtmP and H). The correlation analysis indicated correlation between the SBP and DBP and AtmP and H, being the largest during the night. Furthermore, the correlation and bivariate analysis showed that the largest correlations are between the SBP and DBP and the AtmP. The superposed epoch analysis found that the largest number of significant SBP and DBP changes occurred for women. Finally, the blood pressure changes are larger during the solar minimum and ascending solar cycle phases than during the solar maximum; the storms of the minimum were more intense than those of the maximum and this could be the reason of behavior of the blood pressure changes along the solar cycle.

Are Solar Activity Variations Amplified by the QBO: A Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengel, J. G.; Mayr, H. G.; Drob, D. P.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle. It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes and is referred to as 'downward control'. Small changes in the solar radiative forcing may produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but these in turn may produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1% at the surface to 1% at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is small. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing acts as a strong pacemaker to lock up the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with a different QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase. These amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. The SCAE in this case extends to mid-latitudes.

Mir Cooperative Solar Array Project Accelerated Life Thermal Cycling Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, David J.; Scheiman, David A.

1996-01-01

The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) project was a joint U.S./Russian effort to build a photovoltaic (PV) solar array and deliver it to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA will be used to increase the electrical power on Mir and provide PV array performance data in support of Phase 1 of the International Space Station. The MCSA was brought to Mir by space shuttle Atlantis in November 1995. This report describes an accelerated thermal life cycle test which was performed on two samples of the MCSA. In eight months time, two MCSA solar array 'mini' panel test articles were simultaneously put through 24,000 thermal cycles. There was no significant degradation in the structural integrity of the test articles and no electrical degradation, not including one cell damaged early and removed from consideration. The nature of the performance degradation caused by this one cell is briefly discussed. As a result of this test, changes were made to improve some aspects of the solar cell coupon-to-support frame interface on the flight unit. It was concluded from the results that the integration of the U.S. solar cell modules with the Russian support structure would be able to withstand at least 24,000 thermal cycles (4 years on-orbit). This was considered a successful development test.

Erratum to "Solar Sources and Geospace Consequences of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Observed During Solar Cycle 23-Paper 1" [J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 70(2-4) (2008) 245-253

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.; Michalek, G.; Lepping, R. P.

2009-01-01

One of the figures (Fig. 4) in "Solar sources and geospace consequences of interplanetary magnetic Clouds observed during solar cycle 23 -- Paper 1" by Gopalswamy et al. (2008, JASTP, Vol. 70, Issues 2-4, February 2008, pp. 245-253) is incorrect because of a software error in t he routine that was used to make the plot. The source positions of various magnetic cloud (MC) types are therefore not plotted correctly.

The solar ionisation rate deduced from Ulysses measurements and its implications to interplanetary Lyman alpha-intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Summanen, T.; Kyroelae, E.

1995-01-01

We have developed a computer code which can be used to study 3-dimensional and time-dependent effects of the solar cycle on the interplanetary (IP) hydrogen distribution. The code is based on the inverted Monte Carlo simulation. In this work we have modelled the temporal behaviour of the solar ionisation rate. We have assumed that during the most of the time of the solar cycle there is an anisotopic latitudinal structure but right at the solar maximum the anisotropy disappears. The effects of this behaviour will be discussed both in regard to the IP hydrogen distribution and IP Lyman a a-intensity.

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern hemisphere temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimeno, Luis; de la Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; García, Ricardo; Hernández, Emiliano; Ribera, Pedro

2003-01-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated - a result assumed up to the moment - but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [Kodera, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002) 14557-14560] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases.

Minimal Magnetic States of the Sun and the Solar Wind: Implications for the Origin of the Slow Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliver, E. W.; von Steiger, R.

2017-09-01

During the last decade it has been proposed that both the Sun and the solar wind have minimum magnetic states, lowest order levels of magnetism that underlie the 11-yr cycle as well as longer-term variability. Here we review the literature on basal magnetic states at the Sun and in the heliosphere and draw a connection between the two based on the recent deep 2008-2009 minimum between cycles 23 and 24. In particular, we consider the implications of the low solar activity during the recent minimum for the origin of the slow solar wind.

Reconstruction of total solar irradiance 1974-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, W. T.; Unruh, Y. C.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S.; Wenzler, T.; Mortlock, D. J.; Jaffe, A. H.

2012-05-01

Context. The study of variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) is important for understanding how the Sun affects the Earth's climate. Aims: Full-disk continuum images and magnetograms are now available for three full solar cycles. We investigate how modelled TSI compares with direct observations by building a consistent modelled TSI dataset. The model, based only on changes in the photospheric magnetic flux can then be tested on rotational, cyclical and secular timescales. Methods: We use Kitt Peak and SoHO/MDI continuum images and magnetograms in the SATIRE-S model to reconstruct TSI over cycles 21-23. To maximise independence from TSI composites, SORCE/TIM TSI data are used to fix the one free parameter of the model. We compare and combine the separate data sources for the model to estimate an uncertainty on the reconstruction and prevent any additional free parameters entering the model. Results: The reconstruction supports the PMOD composite as being the best historical record of TSI observations, although on timescales of the solar rotation the IRMB composite provides somewhat better agreement. Further to this, the model is able to account for 92% of TSI variations from 1978 to 2009 in the PMOD composite and over 96% during cycle 23. The reconstruction also displays an inter-cycle, secular decline of 0.20+0.12-0.09 W m-2 between cycle 23 minima, in agreement with the PMOD composite. Conclusions: SATIRE-S is able to recreate TSI observations on all timescales of a day and longer over 31 years from 1978. This is strong evidence that changes in photospheric magnetic flux alone are responsible for almost all solar irradiance variations over the last three solar cycles.

Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.

2017-11-01

Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.

The development of a solar residential heating and cooling system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The MSFC solar heating and cooling facility was assembled to demonstrate the engineering feasibility of utilizing solar energy for heating and cooling buildings, to provide an engineering evaluation of the total system and the key subsystems, and to investigate areas of possible improvement in design and efficiency. The basic solar heating and cooling system utilizes a flat plate solar energy collector, a large water tank for thermal energy storage, heat exchangers for space heating, and an absorption cycle air conditioner for space cooling. A complete description of all systems is given. Development activities for this test system included assembly, checkout, operation, modification, and data analysis, all of which are discussed. Selected data analyses for the first 15 weeks of testing are included, findings associated with energy storage and the energy storage system are outlined, and conclusions resulting from test findings are provided. An evaluation of the data for summer operation indicates that the current system is capable of supplying an average of 50 percent of the thermal energy required to drive the air conditioner. Preliminary evaluation of data collected for operation in the heating mode during the winter indicates that nearly 100 percent of the thermal energy required for heating can be supplied by the system.

The electron content of the southern mid-latitude ionosphere, 1965-1971.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titheridge, J. E.

1973-01-01

Continuous accurate records of the electron content of the ionosphere are obtained at Auckland (ionosphere point at 34 deg S geographic, 38 deg geomagnetic) and at Invercargill (42 deg S geographic, 47 deg geomagnetic). Mean hourly values scaled from these records are used to show the average diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle changes in the ionosphere from June 1965 to August 1971. The mean daytime electron content shows no seasonal anomaly at any stage of the solar cycle, at 34 deg S. There is some anomaly at 42 deg S, particularly near solar maximum. The anomaly becomes quite marked in terms of peak density because of a contraction of the ionosphere in winter. The mean amplitude of the day-to-day fluctuations in electron content shows no appreciable solar cycle change.

Probing SEP Acceleration Processes With Near-relativistic Electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haggerty, Dennis K.; Roelof, Edmond C.

2009-11-01

Processes in the solar corona are prodigious accelerators of near-relativistic electrons. Only a small fraction of these electrons escape the low corona, yet they are by far the most abundant species observed in Solar Energetic Particle events. These beam-like energetic electron events are sometimes time-associated with coronal mass ejections from the western solar hemisphere. However, a significant number of events are observed without any apparent association with a transient event. The relationship between solar energetic particle events, coronal mass ejections, and near-relativistic electron events are better ordered when we classify the intensity time profiles during the duration of the beam-like anisotropies into three broad categories: 1) Spikes (rapid and equal rise and decay) 2) Pulses (rapid rise, slower decay) and 3) Ramps (rapid rise followed by a plateau). We report on the results of a study that is based on our catalog (covering nearly the complete Solar Cycle 23) of 216 near-relativistic electron events and their association with: solar electromagnetic emissions, shocks driven by coronal mass ejections, models of the coronal magnetic fields and energetic protons. We conclude that electron events with time-intensity profiles of Spikes and Pulses are associated with explosive events in the low corona while events with time-intensity profiles of Ramps are associated with the injection/acceleration process of the CME driven shock.

Focusing Solar Hard X-rays: Expected Results from a FOXSI Spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glesener, L.; Christe, S.; Shih, A. Y.; Dennis, B. R.; Krucker, S.; Saint-Hilaire, P.; Hudson, H. S.; Ryan, D.; Inglis, A. R.; Hannah, I. G.; Caspi, A.; Klimchuk, J. A.; Drake, J. F.; Kontar, E.; Holman, G.; White, S. M.; Alaoui, M.; Battaglia, M.; Vilmer, N.; Allred, J. C.; Longcope, D. W.; Gary, D. E.; Jeffrey, N. L. S.; Musset, S.; Swisdak, M.

2016-12-01

Over the course of two solar cycles, RHESSI has examined high-energy processes in flares via high-resolution spectroscopy and imaging of soft and hard X-rays (HXRs). The detected X-rays are the thermal and nonthermal bremsstrahlung from heated coronal plasma and from accelerated electrons, respectively, making them uniquely suited to explore the highest-energy processes that occur in the corona. RHESSI produces images using an indirect, Fourier-based method and has made giant strides in our understanding of these processes, but it has also uncovered intriguing new mysteries regarding energy release location, acceleration mechanisms, and energy propagation in flares. Focusing optics are now available for the HXR regime and stand poised to perform another revolution in the field of high-energy solar physics. With two successful sounding rocket flights completed, the Focusing Optics X-ray Solar Imager (FOXSI) program has demonstrated the feasibility and power of direct solar HXR imaging with its vastly superior sensitivity and dynamic range. Placing this mature technology aboard a spacecraft will offer a systematic way to explore high-energy aspects of the solar corona and to address scientific questions left unanswered by RHESSI. Here we present examples of such questions and show simulations of expected results from a FOXSI spaceborne instrument to demonstrate how these questions can be addressed with the focusing of hard X-rays.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E.

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965–2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature ( T {sub p}) and speed ( V {sub p}) and between the proton density ( n {sub p}) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature–speed ( T {sub p}– V {sub p}) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density–speed ( n {sub p}– V {sub p}) relationship is not linear like the T {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship,more » we perform power-law fits for n {sub p}– V {sub p}. The exponent (steepness in the n {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n {sub p} for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n {sub p} is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n {sub p} variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n {sub p}– V {sub p} exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T {sub p} and V {sub p} data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.« less

High temperature solar photon engines. [heat engines for terrestrial and space-based solar power plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hertzberg, A.; Decher, R.; Mattick, A. T.; Lau, C. V.

1978-01-01

High temperature heat engines designed to make maximum use of the thermodynamic potential of concentrated solar radiation are described. Plasmas between 2000 K and 4000 K can be achieved by volumetric absorption of radiation in alkali metal vapors, leading to thermal efficiencies up to 75% for terrestrial solar power plants and up to 50% for space power plants. Two machines capable of expanding hot plasmas using practical technology are discussed. A binary Rankine cycle uses fluid mechanical energy transfer in a device known as the 'Comprex' or 'energy exchanger.' The second machine utilizes magnetohydrodynamics in a Brayton cycle for space applications. Absorption of solar energy and plasma radiation losses are investigated for a solar superheater using potassium vapor.

CONVECTIVE BABCOCK-LEIGHTON DYNAMO MODELS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miesch, Mark S.; Brown, Benjamin P., E-mail: miesch@ucar.edu

We present the first global, three-dimensional simulations of solar/stellar convection that take into account the influence of magnetic flux emergence by means of the Babcock-Leighton (BL) mechanism. We have shown that the inclusion of a BL poloidal source term in a convection simulation can promote cyclic activity in an otherwise steady dynamo. Some cycle properties are reminiscent of solar observations, such as the equatorward propagation of toroidal flux near the base of the convection zone. However, the cycle period in this young sun (rotating three times faster than the solar rate) is very short ({approx}6 months) and it is unclearmore » whether much longer cycles may be achieved within this modeling framework, given the high efficiency of field generation and transport by the convection. Even so, the incorporation of mean-field parameterizations in three-dimensional convection simulations to account for elusive processes such as flux emergence may well prove useful in the future modeling of solar and stellar activity cycles.« less

Water transport in limestone by X-ray CAT scanning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mossoti, Victor G.; Castanier, Louis M.

1989-01-01

The transport of water through the interior of Salem limestone test briquettes can be dynamically monitored by computer aided tomography (commonly called CAT scanning in medical diagnostics). Most significantly, unless evaporation from a particular face of the briquette is accelerated by forced air flow (wind simulation), the distribution of water in the interior of the briquette remains more or less uniform throughout the complete drying cycle. Moreover, simulated solar illumination of the test briquette does not result in the production of significant water gradients in the briquette under steady-state drying conditions.

A PROPOSED PARADIGM FOR SOLAR CYCLE DYNAMICS MEDIATED VIA TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX IN BABCOCK–LEIGHTON-TYPE SOLAR DYNAMOS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu

At present, the Babcock–Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear to be the most promising models for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent upon a single-cell meridional circulation with a deep equatorward component at the base of the Sun’s convection zone. However, recent observations suggest that the meridional flow may in fact be very shallow (confined to the top 10% of the Sun) and more complex than previously thought. Taken together, these observations raise serious concerns on the validity of the flux transport paradigm. By accounting formore » the turbulent pumping of magnetic flux, as evidenced in magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar convection, we demonstrate that flux transport dynamo models can generate solar-like magnetic cycles even if the meridional flow is shallow. Solar-like periodic reversals are recovered even when meridional circulation is altogether absent. However, in this case, the solar surface magnetic field dynamics does not extend all the way to the polar regions. Very importantly, our results demonstrate that the Parker–Yoshimura sign rule for dynamo wave propagation can be circumvented in Babcock–Leighton dynamo models by the latitudinal component of turbulent pumping, which can generate equatorward propagating sunspot belts in the absence of a deep, equatorward meridional flow. We also show that variations in turbulent pumping coefficients can modulate the solar cycle amplitude and periodicity. Our results suggest the viability of an alternate magnetic flux transport paradigm—mediated via turbulent pumping—for sustaining solar-stellar dynamo action.« less

Lunar power system summary of studies for the lunar enterprise task force NASA-office of exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Criswell, David R.

1989-01-01

The capacity of global power systems must be increased by a factor of ten to provide the predicted power needs of electric power by the year 2050. The Lunar Power System (LPS) would collect solar energy at power bases located on opposing limbs of the moon as seen from Earth. LPS can provide dependable, economic, renewable, and environmentally benign solar energy to Earth. A preliminary engineering and cash flow model of the LPS was developed. Results are shown for a system scaled to a peak capacity of 355 GWe on Earth and to provide 13,600 GWe-Yrs of energy over a 70 year life cycle of construction and full operation. The growth in capacity of the reference system from start of installation on the moon in 2005 to completion of its nominal life cycle in the year 2070 is shown. World needs for power could be accommodated by expansion in capacity of the reference LPS beyond 344 GWe. This would be done by steadily incorporating newer technology during full operation and by establishing additional bases. The results presented encourage consideration of a faster paced program than is assumed herein.

Technology assessment of solar-energy systems. Part 1: An analysis of life-cycle costs of solar facilities. Part 2: Minerals critical to the development of future energy technologies in high and low solar scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathaye, J.; Ruderman, H.

1981-09-01

Solar and renewable technologies account for most of the increase in material requirements for energy technologies. The analysis identified 20 minerals where domestic reserves are inadequate to meet the demand. Domestic mine capacity is inadequate for 23 minerals. However, the world wide mine production capacity is adequate to meet the US demand for all the minerals. Energy related demand can therefore provide a potential market for some of these 23 minerals provided the US has deposits that can be exploited at worldwide competitive prices. For some critical and strategic minerals such as chromium the US demand peaks during a time period different than the period during which world demand peaks. The time period differences will help smooth market fluctuations and reduce the US vulnerability. Alternative technology designs can help mitigate diverse supply disruptions or sharp price increases. Alternatives may not always be available for a specific strategic and critical mineral. Each mineral may have to be analyzed and evaluated on its own merits before comparative options can be completely analyzed.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Distribution of flares on the sun during 1955-1985 - 'Hot spots' (active zones) lasting for 30 years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bai, Taeil

1988-01-01

The coordinates of 'major solar flares' observed during the period from January 1955 through August 1985 are analyzed. About 100 'superactive' regions (large, complex, active regions containing large sunspots) produced 46 percent of the major flares during the period. Superactive regions appeared more frequently in certain areas of the sun called 'hot spots' or 'active zones'. The synodic rotation periods of the northern and southern hemisphere hot spots were 26.72 d and 26.61 d, respectively. One of the two hot spots persisted through three solar cycles, and the other was active during cycles 19 and 21 but was dormant during cycle 20. These findings suggest that the mechanism producing hot spots must be stable for two or three solar cycles or longer.

Solar Irradiance Models and Measurements: A Comparison in the 220-240 nm wavelength band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unruh, Yvonne C.; Ball, Will T.; Krivova, Natalie A.

2012-07-01

Solar irradiance models that assume solar irradiance variations to be due to changes in the solar surface magnetic flux have been successfully used to reconstruct total solar irradiance on rotational as well as cyclical and secular time scales. Modelling spectral solar irradiance is not yet as advanced, and also suffers from a lack of comparison data, in particular on solar cycle time scales. Here, we compare solar irradiance in the 220-240 nm band as modelled with SATIRE-S and measured by different instruments on the UARS and SORCE satellites. We find good agreement between the model and measurements on rotational time scales. The long-term trends, however, show significant differences. Both SORCE instruments, in particular, show a much steeper gradient over the decaying part of cycle 23 than the modelled irradiance or that measured by UARS/SUSIM.

A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Effects of Solar Activities on Tropospheric Thermodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Kyle, H. Lee; Wharton, Stephen W. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Whether the Sun has significantly influenced the climate during the last century has been under extensive debates for almost two decades. Since the solar irradiance varies very little in a solar cycle, it is puzzling that some geophysical parameters show proportionally large variations which appear to be responding to the solar cycles. For example, variation in low altitude clouds is shown correlated with solar cycle, and the onset of Forbush decrease is shown correlated with the reduction of the vorticity area index. A possible sun-climate connection is that galactic cosmic rays modulated by solar activities influence cloud formation. In this paper, we apply wavelet transform to satellite and surface data to examine this hypothesis. Data analyzed include the time series for solar irradiance, sunspots, UV index, temperature, cloud coverage, and neutron counter measurements. The interactions among the elements in the Earth System under the external and internal forcings give out very complex signals.The periodicity of the forcings or signals could range widely. Since wavelet transforms can analyze multi-scale phenomena that are both localized in frequency and time, it is a very useful technique for detecting, understanding and monitoring climate changes.

Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics

PubMed Central

Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

2012-01-01

On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996–2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum. PMID:25685427

Geomagnetic detection of the sectorial solar magnetic field and the historical peculiarity of minimum 23-24

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, J.

2012-01-01

[1] Analysis is made of the geomagnetic-activityaaindex covering solar cycle 11 to the beginning of 24, 1868–2011. Autocorrelation shows 27.0-d recurrent geomagnetic activity that is well-known to be prominent during solar-cycle minima; some minima also exhibit a smaller amount of 13.5-d recurrence. Previous work has shown that the recent solar minimum 23–24 exhibited 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence in geomagnetic and heliospheric data, but those recurrence intervals were not prominently present during the preceding minima 21–22 and 22–23. Using annual-averages and solar-cycle averages of autocorrelations of the historicalaadata, we put these observations into a long-term perspective: none of the 12 minima preceding 23–24 exhibited prominent 9.0 and 6.7-d geomagnetic activity recurrence. We show that the detection of these recurrence intervals can be traced to an unusual combination of sectorial spherical-harmonic structure in the solar magnetic field and anomalously low sunspot number. We speculate that 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence is related to transient large-scale, low-latitude organization of the solar dynamo, such as seen in some numerical simulations.

Areas of Polar Coronal Holes from 1996 Through 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webber, Hess S. A.; Karna, N.; Pesnell, W. D.; Kirk, M. S.

2014-01-01

Polar coronal holes (PCHs) trace the magnetic variability of the Sun throughout the solar cycle. Their size and evolution have been studied as proxies for the global magnetic field. We present measurements of the PCH areas from 1996 through 2010, derived from an updated perimeter-tracing method and two synoptic-map methods. The perimeter tracing method detects PCH boundaries along the solar limb, using full-disk images from the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT). One synoptic-map method uses the line-of-sight magnetic field from the SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) to determine the unipolarity boundaries near the poles. The other method applies thresholding techniques to synoptic maps created from EUV image data from EIT. The results from all three methods suggest that the solar maxima and minima of the two hemispheres are out of phase. The maximum PCH area, averaged over the methods in each hemisphere, is approximately 6 % during both solar minima spanned by the data (between Solar Cycles 22/23 and 23/24). The northern PCH area began a declining trend in 2010, suggesting a downturn toward the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 in that hemisphere, while the southern hole remained large throughout 2010.

DISTRIBUTION OF MAGNETIC BIPOLES ON THE SUN OVER THREE SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tlatov, Andrey G.; Vasil'eva, Valerya V.; Pevtsov, Alexei A., E-mail: tlatov@mail.r, E-mail: apevtsov@nso.ed

We employ synoptic full disk longitudinal magnetograms to study latitudinal distribution and orientation (tilt) of magnetic bipoles in the course of sunspot activity during cycles 21, 22, and 23. The data set includes daily observations from the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak (1975-2002) and Michelson Doppler Imager on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (MDI/SOHO, 1996-2009). Bipole pairs were selected on the basis of proximity and flux balance of two neighboring flux elements of opposite polarity. Using the area of the bipoles, we have separated them into small quiet-Sun bipoles (QSBs), ephemeral regions (ERs), and active regions (ARs). Wemore » find that in their orientation, ERs and ARs follow Hale-Nicholson polarity rule. As expected, AR tilts follow Joy's law. ERs, however, show significantly larger tilts of opposite sign for a given hemisphere. QSBs are randomly oriented. Unlike ARs, ERs also show a preference in their orientation depending on the polarity of the large-scale magnetic field. These orientation properties may indicate that some ERs may form at or near the photosphere via the random encounter of opposite polarity elements, while others may originate in the convection zone at about the same location as ARs. The combined latitudinal distribution of ERs and ARs exhibits a clear presence of Spoerer's butterfly diagram (equatorward drift in the course of a solar cycle). ERs extend the ARs' 'wing' of the butterfly diagram to higher latitudes. This high latitude extension of ERs suggests an extended solar cycle with the first magnetic elements of the next cycle developing shortly after the maximum of the previous cycle. The polarity orientation and tilt of ERs may suggest the presence of poloidal fields of two configurations (new cycle and old cycle) in the convection zone at the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

Sub- and Quasi-Centurial Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Data Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komitov, B.; Sello, S.; Duchlev, P.; Dechev, M.; Penev, K.; Koleva, K.

2016-07-01

The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with durations in the range of 20-250 years. Five types of data series are used: 1) the Zurich series (1749-2009 AD), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri, 2) the Group sunspot number series Rh (1610-1995 AD), 3) the simulated extended sunspot number from Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) (1090-2002 AD), 4) the simulated extended geomagnetic aa-index from ESAI (1099-2002 AD), 5) the Meudon filament series (1919-1991 AD). Two principally independent methods of time series analysis are used: the T-R periodogram analysis (both in standard and ``scanning window'' regimes) and the wavelet-analysis. The obtained results are very similar. A strong cycle with a mean duration of 55-60 years is found to exist in all series. On the other hand, a strong and stable quasi 110-120 years and ˜200-year cycles are obtained in all of these series except in the Ri one. The high importance of the long term solar activity dynamics for the aims of solar dynamo modeling and predictions is especially noted.

Solar Thermochemical Energy Storage Through Carbonation Cycles of SrCO3/SrO Supported on SrZrO3.

PubMed

Rhodes, Nathan R; Barde, Amey; Randhir, Kelvin; Li, Like; Hahn, David W; Mei, Renwei; Klausner, James F; AuYeung, Nick

2015-11-01

Solar thermochemical energy storage has enormous potential for enabling cost-effective concentrated solar power (CSP). A thermochemical storage system based on a SrO/SrCO3 carbonation cycle offers the ability to store and release high temperature (≈1200 °C) heat. The energy density of SrCO3/SrO systems supported by zirconia-based sintering inhibitors was investigated for 15 cycles of exothermic carbonation at 1150 °C followed by decomposition at 1235 °C. A sample with 40 wt % of SrO supported by yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) shows good energy storage stability at 1450 MJ m(-3) over fifteen cycles at the same cycling temperatures. After further testing over 45 cycles, a decrease in energy storage capacity to 1260 MJ m(-3) is observed during the final cycle. The decrease is due to slowing carbonation kinetics, and the original value of energy density may be obtained by lengthening the carbonation steps. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Modern representation of databases on the example of the Catalog of Solar Proton Events in the 23rd Cycle of Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishkov, V. N.; Zabarinskaya, L. P.; Sergeeva, N. A.

2017-11-01

The development of studies of solar sources and their effects on the state of the near-Earth space required systematization of the corresponding information in the form of databases and catalogs for the entire time of observation of any geoeffective phenomenon that includes, if possible at the time of creation, all of the characteristics of the phenomena themselves and the sources of these phenomena on the Sun. A uniform presentation of information in the form of a series of similar catalogs that cover long time intervals is of particular importance. The large amount of information collected in such catalogs makes it necessary to use modern methods of its organization and presentation that allow a transition between individual parts of the catalog and a quick search for necessary events and their characteristics, which is implemented in the presented Catalog of Solar Proton Events in the 23rd Cycle of Solar Activity of the sequence of catalogs (six separate issues) that cover the period from 1970 to 2009 (20th-23rd solar cycles).

Is There a CME Rate Floor? CME and Magnetic Flux Values for the Last Four Solar Cycle Minima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, D. F.; Howard, R. A.; St. Cyr, O. C.; Vourlidas, A.

2017-12-01

The recent prolonged activity minimum has led to the question of whether there is a base level of the solar magnetic field evolution that yields a “floor” in activity levels and also in the solar wind magnetic field strength. Recently, a flux transport model coupled with magneto-frictional simulations has been used to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from 1996 to 2012. Flux rope eruptions in the simulations are estimated (Yeates), and the results are in remarkable agreement with the shape of the SOlar Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment coronal mass ejection (CME) rate distribution. The eruption rates at the two recent minima approximate the observed-corrected CME rates, supporting the idea of a base level of solar magnetic activity. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing annual averages of the CME occurrence rates during the last four solar cycle minima with several tracers of the global solar magnetic field. We conclude that CME activity never ceases during a cycle, but maintains a base level of 1 CME every 1.5 to ∼3 days during minima. We discuss the sources of these CMEs.

Life Cycle Assessment of Titania Perovskite Solar Cell Technology for Sustainable Design and Manufacturing.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyi; Gao, Xianfeng; Deng, Yelin; Li, Bingbing; Yuan, Chris

2015-11-01

Perovskite solar cells have attracted enormous attention in recent years due to their low cost and superior technical performance. However, the use of toxic metals, such as lead, in the perovskite dye and toxic chemicals in perovskite solar cell manufacturing causes grave concerns for its environmental performance. To understand and facilitate the sustainable development of perovskite solar cell technology from its design to manufacturing, a comprehensive environmental impact assessment has been conducted on titanium dioxide nanotube based perovskite solar cells by using an attributional life cycle assessment approach, from cradle to gate, with manufacturing data from our laboratory-scale experiments and upstream data collected from professional databases and the literature. The results indicate that the perovskite dye is the primary source of environmental impact, associated with 64.77% total embodied energy and 31.38% embodied materials consumption, contributing to more than 50% of the life cycle impact in almost all impact categories, although lead used in the perovskite dye only contributes to about 1.14% of the human toxicity potential. A comparison of perovskite solar cells with commercial silicon and cadmium-tellurium solar cells reveals that perovskite solar cells could be a promising alternative technology for future large-scale industrial applications. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Solar Radio Burst Statistics and Implications for Space Weather Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giersch, O. D.; Kennewell, J.; Lynch, M.

2017-11-01

Solar radio bursts have the potential to affect space and terrestrial navigation, communication, and other technical systems that are sometimes overlooked. However, over the last decade a series of extreme L band solar radio bursts in December 2006 have renewed interest in these effects. In this paper we point out significant deficiencies in the solar radio data archives of the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) that are used by most researchers in analyzing and producing statistics on solar radio burst phenomena. In particular, we examine the records submitted by the United States Air Force (USAF) Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) and its predecessors from the period 1966 to 2010. Besides identifying substantial missing burst records we show that different observatories can have statistically different burst distributions, particularly at 245 MHz. We also point out that different solar cycles may show statistically different distributions and that it is a mistake to assume that the Sun shows similar behavior in different sunspot cycles. Large solar radio bursts are not confined to the period around sunspot maximum, and prediction of such events that utilize historical data will invariably be an underestimate due to archive data deficiencies. It is important that researchers and forecasters use historical occurrence frequency with caution in attempting to predict future cycles.

SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND AQUATIC CARBON, NITROGEN, SULFUR AND METALS CYCLES

EPA Science Inventory

Solar ultraviolet radiation (290-400 nm) has a wide-ranging impact on biological and chemical processes that affect the cycling of elements in aquatic environments. This chapter uses recent field and laboratory observations along with models to assess these impacts on carbon, nit...