Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning about Climate Change--The Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially…

A Culturally Relevant Teacher Professional Development for Teaching Climate Change to Native American Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kern, Anne Liu; Honwad, Sameer; McLain, Ed

2017-01-01

The science of climate change is a complex subject to teach. Teachers find climate change a challenging topic to teach due to a myriad of reasons. Gayford, 2010 describes some of the challenges teachers face while teaching climate change science as "first, the controversial nature of the topic; second, it does not relate well to the normal…

The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

2011-01-01

An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

A Systems Perspective on Responses to Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires respons...

Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Obesity.

PubMed

Minos, Dimitrios; Butzlaff, Iris; Demmler, Kathrin Maria; Rischke, Ramona

2016-12-01

Human and planetary health as well as economic growth are firmly interlinked and subject to complex interaction effects. In this paper, we provide an overview of interlinkages between economic growth, climate change, and obesity focusing on recent advances in the literature. In addition to empirical findings, we discuss different theoretical frameworks used to conceptualize these complex links and highlight policy options and challenges. We conclude that policies addressing both climate change and obesity simultaneously are particularly promising and often suitable for ensuring sustainable development.

Adapting to the effects of climate change [Chapter 14

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky

2018-01-01

Adapting to climate change, or adjusting to current or future climate and its effects (Noble et al. 2014), is critical to minimizing the risks associated with climate change impacts. Adaptation actions can vary from passive (e.g., a "wait and see" approach), to relatively simple (e.g., increasing harvest rotation age), to complex (e.g., managing forest...

Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

PubMed

Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

2017-03-01

Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

Argumentation as a Strategy for Increasing Preservice Teachers' Understanding of Climate Change, a Key Global Socioscientific Issue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Findings of this study suggest that scientific argumentation can play an effective role in addressing complex socioscientific issues (i.e. global climate change). This research examined changes in preservice teachers' knowledge and perceptions about climate change in an innovative undergraduate-level elementary science methods course. The…

Facing climate change in forests and fields

Treesearch

Amy Daniels; Nancy Shaw; Dave Peterson; Keith Nislow; Monica Tomosy; Mary Rowland

2014-01-01

As a growing body of science shows, climate change impacts on wildlife are already profound - from shifting species' ranges and altering the synchronicity of food sources to changing the availability of water. Such impacts are only expected to increase in the coming decades. As climate change shapes complex, interwoven ecological processes, novel conditions and...

Climate change can alter predator-prey dynamics and population viability of prey.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Peers, Michael J L; Ellington, E Hance; Mumma, Matthew A; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Murray, Dennis L

2018-01-01

For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.

Climate change, carbon, and forestry in northwestern North America: proceedings of a workshop November 14-15, 2001 Orcas Island, Washington.

Treesearch

David L. Peterson; John L. Innes; Kelly O’Brian

2004-01-01

Interactions between forests, climatic change and the Earth’s carbon cycle are complex and represent a challenge for forest managers – they are integral to the sustainable management of forests. In this volume, a number of papers are presented that describe some of the complex relationships between climate, the global carbon cycle and forests. Research has demonstrated...

Fostering Hope in Climate Change Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swim, Janet K.; Fraser, John

2013-01-01

Climate Change is a complex set of issues with large social and ecological risks. Addressing it requires an attentive and climate literate population capable of making informed decisions. Informal science educators are well-positioned to teach climate science and motivate engagement, but many have resisted the topic because of self-doubt about…

Students' Understanding of Sustainability and Climate Change across Linked Service-Learning Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coleman, Kimberly; Murdoch, James; Rayback, Shelly; Seidl, Amy; Wallin, Kimberly

2017-01-01

College and university faculty are increasingly being called upon to teach about sustainability. Many of these faculty members are incorporating content related to climate change because climate change is arguably the biggest threat to global sustainability. However, the concept of sustainability is complex, interdisciplinary, and potentially…

Alignment between Informal Educator Perceptions and Audience Expectations of Climate Change Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stylinski, Cathlyn; Heimlich, Joe; Palmquist, Sasha; Wasserman, Deborah; Youngs, Renae

2017-01-01

To understand the complexities of climate change on educator-visitor relationships, we compared educators' perceptions with audiences' expectations for informal science education institutions. Our findings suggest two disconnects: (a) a professional recognition that climate change education is related to institutional mission but a lack of…

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

Treesearch

E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; F.S. III Chapin; S. Yi; C.C. Thompson

2009-01-01

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in...

Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.

PubMed

Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J

2008-08-01

There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.

Using conceptual maps to assess students' climate change understanding and misconceptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautier, C.

2011-12-01

The complex and interdisciplinary nature of climate change science poses special challenges for educators in helping students understand the climate system, and how it is evolving under natural and anthropogenic forcing. Students and citizens alike have existing mental models that may limit their perception and processing of the multiple relationships between processes (e.g., feedback) that arise in global change science, and prevent adoption of complex scientific concepts. Their prior knowledge base serves as the scaffold for all future learning and grasping its range and limitations serves as an important basis upon which to anchor instruction. Different instructional strategies can be adopted to help students understand the inherently interdisciplinary topic of global climate change, its interwoven human and natural causes, and the connections it has with society through a complex range of political, social, technological and economic factors. One assessment method for students' understanding of global climate change with its many uncertainties, whether associated with the workings of the climate system or with respect to social, cultural and economic processes that mediate human responses to changes within the system, is through the use of conceptual maps. When well designed, they offer a representation of students' mental model prior and post instruction. We will present two conceptual mapping activities used in the classroom to assess students' knowledge and understanding about global climate change and uncover misconceptions. For the first one, concept maps will be used to demonstrate evidence of learning and conceptual change, while for the second we will show how conceptual maps can provide information about gaps in knowledge and misconceptions students have about the topic.

Climate Change Indicators: Health and Society

MedlinePlus

... of the ways that climate change is affecting human health and society, including changes in Lyme disease, West ... season across the United States. Because impacts on human health are complex, often indirect, and dependent on multiple ...

Undergraduate Climate Education: Motivations, Strategies, Successes, and Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirk, Karin B.; Gold, Anne U.; Ledley, Tamara Shapiro; Sullivan, Susan Buhr; Manduca, Cathryn A.; Mogk, David W.; Wiese, Katryn

2014-01-01

Climate literacy is an essential component of a strategy to comprehend and confront the grand challenge of global climate change. However, scientific complexity, societal implications, and political associations make climate change a difficult but important topic to teach. In this paper we report on the results of a survey of undergraduate faculty…

Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change

Treesearch

Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Shannon LaDeau; Janneke Hill Ris Lambers

2007-01-01

Predicting vegetation shifts under climate change is a challenging endeavor, given the complex interactions between biotic and abiotic variables that influence demographic rates. To determine how current trends and variation in climate change affect seedling establishment, we analyzed demographic responses to spatiotemporal variation to temperature and soil moisture in...

Adapting to and Coping with the Threat and Impacts of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reser, Joseph P.; Swim, Janet K.

2011-01-01

This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to…

Climate change and the Rocky Mountains: Chapter 20

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrne, James M.; Fagre, Daniel B.; MacDonald, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2014-01-01

For at least half of the year, the Rocky Mountains are shrouded in snow that feeds a multitude of glaciers. Snow and ice eventually melt into rivers that have eroded deep valleys that contain rich aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Because the Rocky Mountains are the major divide on the continent, rainfall and melt water from glaciers and snowfields feed major river systems that run to the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic oceans. The Rockies truly are the water tower for much of North America, and part of the Alpine backbone of North and South America. For purposes of this chapter, we limit our discussion to the Rocky Mountains of the Canadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, and the U.S. states of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and Colorado. Similar to other mountain systems, the altitude of the Rocky Mountains condenses the weather, climate and ecosystems of thousands of kilometres of latitude into very short vertical distances. In one good day, a strong hiker can journey by foot from the mid-latitude climates of the great plains of North America to an arctic climate near the top of Rocky Mountain peaks. The steep climatic gradients of mountain terrain create some of the most diverse ecosystems in the world, but it is those rapid changes in microclimate and ecology that make mountains sensitive to climate change. The energy budget in mountains varies dramatically not only with elevation but with slope and aspect. A modest change in the slope of the terrain over short distances may radically change the solar radiation available in that location. Shaded or north facing slopes have very different microclimates than the same elevations in a sunlit location, or for a hill slope facing south. The complexities associated with the mountain terrain of the Rockies compound complexities of weather and climate to create diverse, amazing ecosystems. This chapter addresses the impacts of climate change on Rocky Mountain ecosystems in light of their complexities and sensitivities. The chapter emphasizes how climate change affects aquatic resources of the Rockies because they are impacted so directly by the changing snow and ice regimes. The chapter also suggests some approaches for coping with these impacts. Climate change is real and ever present, and the role of each of us in changing the climate is also real and present. The Rocky Mountains are a vast and complex region that is valuable both for resources and ecosystems, but the Rockies cannot provide the valuable resources we need, unless we protect and conserve mountain ecosystems. Hopefully this discussion of the major changes ongoing in the Rocky Mountains due to climate change will add to the collective societal will to minimize this change in the future.

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment in Industrial Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. J.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change has recently caused frequent natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Such disasters have also increased industrial damages. We must establish climate change adaptation policies to reduce the industrial damages. It is important to make accurate vulnerability assessment to establish climate change adaptation policies. Thus, this study aims at establishing a new index to assess vulnerability level in industrial complexes. Most vulnerability indices have been developed with subjective approaches, such as the Delphi survey and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The subjective approaches rely on the knowledge of a few experts, which provokes the lack of the reliability of the indices. To alleviate the problem, we have designed a vulnerability index incorporating objective approaches. We have investigated 42 industrial complex sites in Republic of Korea (ROK). To calculate weights of variables, we used entropy method as an objective method integrating the Delphi survey as a subjective method. Finally, we found our method integrating both subjective method and objective method could generate result. The integration of the entropy method enables us to assess the vulnerability objectively. Our method will be useful to establish climate change adaptation policies by reducing the uncertainties of the methods based on the subjective approaches.

The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

PubMed

Mahony, Martin

2014-02-01

Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

Conceptualizing In-service Secondary School Science Teachers' Knowledge Base for Promoting Understanding about the Science of Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Devarati

Efforts to adapt and mitigate the effects of global climate change (GCC) have been ongoing for the past two decades and have become a major global concern. However, research and practice for promoting climate literacy and understanding about GCC have only recently become a national priority. The National Research Council (NRC), has recently emphasized upon the importance of developing learners' capacity of reasoning, their argumentation skills and understanding of GCC (Framework for K-12 Science Education, National Research Council, 2012). This framework focuses on fostering conceptual clarity about GCC to promote innovation, resilience, and readiness in students as a response towards the threat of a changing environment. Previous research about teacher understanding of GCC describes that in spite of the prevalent frameworks like the AAAS Science Literacy Atlas (AAAS, 2007) and the Essential Principles for Climate Literacy (United States Global Climate Research Program, 2009; Bardsley, 2007), most learners are challenged in understanding the science of GCC (Michail et al., 2007) and misinformed perceptions about basic climate science content and the role of human activities in changing climate remain persistent (Reibich and Gautier, 2006). Our teacher participants had a rather simplistic knowledge structure. While aware of climate change, teacher participants lacked in depth understanding of how change in climate can impact various ecosystems on the Earth. Furthermore, they felt overwhelmed with the extensive amount of information needed to comprehend the complexity in GCC. Hence, extensive efforts not only focused on assessing conceptual understanding of GCC but also for teaching complex science topics like GCC are essential. This dissertation explains concept mapping, and the photo elicitation method for assessing teachers' understanding of GCC and the use of metacognitive scaffolding in instruction of GCC for developing competence of learners in this complex science phenomenon.

Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is therefore imperative to improve our understanding on how climate change may induce a chain of impacts. Our study is a first step toward this goal by mapping out climate risks and their cause-effect relationships based on current literature.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON DISEASE IMBEDDED IN ECOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES

EPA Science Inventory

We present the techniques of qualitative analysis of complex communities and discuss the impact of climate change as a press perturbation. In particular, we focus on the difficult problem of disease and parasites embedded in animal communities, notably zoonotic diseases. Climate ...

Tree growth and climate in the Pacific Northwest, North America: a broad-scale analysis of changing growth environments

Treesearch

Whitney L. Albright; David L. Peterson

2013-01-01

Climate change in the 21st century will affect tree growth in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, although complex climate–growth relationships make it difficult to identify how radial growth will respond across different species distributions. We used a novel method to examine potential growth responses to climate change at a broad geographical scale with a...

When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988.

PubMed

Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-02-01

Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.

Complex climatic and CO2 controls on net primary productivity of temperate dryland ecosystems over central Asia during 1980-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chi; Ren, Wei

2017-09-01

Central Asia covers a large land area of 5 × 106 km2 and has unique temperate dryland ecosystems, with over 80% of the world's temperate deserts, which has been experiencing dramatic warming and drought in the recent decades. How the temperate dryland responds to complex climate change, however, is still far from clear. This study quantitatively investigates terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) in responses to temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 during 1980-2014, by using the Arid Ecosystem Model, which can realistically predict ecosystems' responses to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 according to model evaluation against 28 field experiments/observations. The simulation results show that unlike other middle-/high-latitude regions, NPP in central Asia declined by 10% (0.12 × 1015 g C) since the 1980s in response to a warmer and drier climate. The dryland's response to warming was weak, while its cropland was sensitive to the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE). However, the CFE was inhibited by the long-term drought from 1998 to 2008 and the positive effect of warming on photosynthesis was largely offset by the enhanced water deficit. The complex interactive effects among climate drivers, unique responses from diverse ecosystem types, and intensive and heterogeneous climatic changes led to highly complex NPP changing patterns in central Asia, of which 69% was dominated by precipitation variation and 20% and 9% was dominated by CO2 and temperature, respectively. The Turgay Plateau in northern Kazakhstan and southern Xinjiang in China are hot spots of NPP degradation in response to climate change during the past three decades and in the future.

Review and recommendations for climate change vulnerability assessment approaches with examples from the Southwest

Treesearch

M. Friggens; K. Bagne; D. Finch; D. Falk; J. Triepke; A. Lynch

2013-01-01

Climate change creates new challenges for resource managers and decision-makers with broad and often complex effects that make it difficult to accurately predict and design management actions to minimize undesirable impacts. We review pertinent information regarding methods and approaches used to conduct climate change vulnerability assessments to reveal assumptions...

Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

2012-04-01

In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on regional and local scale for middle- and long term adaptation and mitigation strategies, providing information on optimum technologies and energy balances. Cooperation with already existing Climate Service Centres and national and international collaboration in monitoring and research are important elements of the activity of the Centre. In the future, the Centre is planned to form part of a national information system on climate change adaptation and mitigation, supported by the Ministry of Development. Keywords: climate change impacts, forestry, rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes. PMID:21479188

Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health.

PubMed

Bennett, Charmian M; Friel, Sharon

2014-12-03

This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world's poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

Unraveling multiple changes in complex climate time series using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, Nadine; Trauth, Martin H.; Holschneider, Matthias

2016-04-01

Change points in time series are perceived as heterogeneities in the statistical or dynamical characteristics of observations. Unraveling such transitions yields essential information for the understanding of the observed system. The precise detection and basic characterization of underlying changes is therefore of particular importance in environmental sciences. We present a kernel-based Bayesian inference approach to investigate direct as well as indirect climate observations for multiple generic transition events. In order to develop a diagnostic approach designed to capture a variety of natural processes, the basic statistical features of central tendency and dispersion are used to locally approximate a complex time series by a generic transition model. A Bayesian inversion approach is developed to robustly infer on the location and the generic patterns of such a transition. To systematically investigate time series for multiple changes occurring at different temporal scales, the Bayesian inversion is extended to a kernel-based inference approach. By introducing basic kernel measures, the kernel inference results are composed into a proxy probability to a posterior distribution of multiple transitions. Thus, based on a generic transition model a probability expression is derived that is capable to indicate multiple changes within a complex time series. We discuss the method's performance by investigating direct and indirect climate observations. The approach is applied to environmental time series (about 100 a), from the weather station in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and confirms documented instrumentation changes. Moreover, the approach is used to investigate a set of complex terrigenous dust records from the ODP sites 659, 721/722 and 967 interpreted as climate indicators of the African region of the Plio-Pleistocene period (about 5 Ma). The detailed inference unravels multiple transitions underlying the indirect climate observations coinciding with established global climate events.

Historical and contemporary geographic data reveal complex spatial and temporal responses of vegetation to climate and land stewardship

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel L.; Norman, Laura M.; Webb, Robert H.; Turner, Raymond M.

2013-01-01

Vegetation and land-cover changes are not always directional but follow complex trajectories over space and time, driven by changing anthropogenic and abiotic conditions. We present a multi-observational approach to land-change analysis that addresses the complex geographic and temporal variability of vegetation changes related to climate and land use. Using land-ownership data as a proxy for land-use practices, multitemporal land-cover maps, and repeat photography dating to the late 19th century, we examine changing spatial and temporal distributions of two vegetation types with high conservation value in the southwestern United States: grasslands and riparian vegetation. In contrast to many reported vegetation changes, notably shrub encroachment in desert grasslands, we found an overall increase in grassland area and decline of xeroriparian and riparian vegetation. These observed change patterns were neither temporally directional nor spatially uniform over the landscape. Historical data suggest that long-term vegetation changes coincide with broad climate fluctuations while fine-scale patterns are determined by land-management practices. In some cases, restoration and active management appear to weaken the effects of climate on vegetation; therefore, if land managers in this region act in accord with on-going directional changes, the current drought and associated ecological reorganization may provide an opportunity to achieve desired restoration endpoints.

Tools for enhancing motivation in teaching climate change and impacts for students in forest- and environmental engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gálos, Borbála

2017-04-01

Climate change is observed to have severe impacts on forest ecosystems. Ongoing research projects are dealing with the complex analysis of the causes of the health status decline and mortality of the vulnerable tree species. In the Carpathian Basin, recurrent long lasting drought periods and heatwaves of the last decades initiated the sequence of abiotic and biotic impacts in the beech and oak forests. Threatening extreme events are very likely to occur more frequent under changing climate conditions until the end of the 21st century. Therefore adaptation strategies and renewed regulations of the tree species selection are necessary. Learning material of forest education needs to be continuously updated with the new aspects and results of recent research and forest management planning. Therefore ideas and tools have been developed for teaching climate change impacts for students in forest- and environmental engineering. Using examples from world sport championships (e.g. losers and winners of climate change) these tools are applied to communicate the basic research questions in an easily understandable way as well as to motivate students and raise their awareness for the complex processes of forest - climate interactions. By the application of the developed examples for motivation, the key competences and learning outcomes can be the following: • students get an insight into the observed and projected tendencies of climate extremes; • they get an impression on the complexity of the climate change related damage chains; • they will be able to identify the climatic drivers of forest decline and mortality; • with the skill of critical thinking they will be able to evaluate the ecological role of forests that are already affected and that could be affected by the consequences of changing climate conditions; • they recognize the importance and urgency of the appropriate decisions in forestry and nature conservation. Keywords: climate change impacts, forest education, teaching tools for motivation The research is supported by the ÚNKP-16-4-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities.

Effect of climate change on the irrigation and discharge scheme for winter wheat in Huaibei Plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Y.; Ren, L.; Lü, H.

2017-12-01

On the Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province, China, winter wheat (WW) is the most prominent crop. The study area belongs to transitional climate, with shallow water table. The original climate change is complex, in addition, global warming make the climate change more complex. The winter wheat growth period is from October to June, just during the rainless season, the WW growth always depends on part of irrigation water. Under such complex climate change, the rainfall varies during the growing seasons, and water table elevations also vary. Thus, water tables supply variable moisture change between soil water and groundwater, which impact the irrigation and discharge scheme for plant growth and yield. In Huaibei plain, the environmental pollution is very serious because of agricultural use of chemical fertilizer, pesticide, herbicide and etc. In order to protect river water and groundwater from pollution, the irrigation and discharge scheme should be estimated accurately. Therefore, determining the irrigation and discharge scheme for winter wheat under climate change is important for the plant growth management decision-making. Based on field observations and local weather data of 2004-2005 and 2005-2006, the numerical model HYDRUS-1D was validated and calibrated by comparing simulated and measured root-zone soil water contents. The validated model was used to estimate the irrigation and discharge scheme in 2010-2090 under the scenarios described by HadCM3 (1970 to 2000 climate states are taken as baselines) with winter wheat growth in an optimum state indicated by growth height and LAI.

Climate change effects on watershed hydrological and biogeochemical processes

EPA Science Inventory

Projected changes in climate are widely expected to alter watershed processes. However, the extent of these changes is difficult to predict because complex interactions among affected hydrological and biogeochemical processes will likely play out over many decades and spatial sc...

Global climate change research at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

EPA Science Inventory

The science surrounding global climate change is complex and has been interpreted in many ways. The concept of the Greenhouse Effect—viewed as the cause of global climate change—is quite simple, but the Earth’s response is not. After more than two decades of intensive research, s...

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

Treesearch

L.G. Crozier; A.P. Hendry; P.W. Lawson; T.P. Quinn; N.J. Mantua; J. Battin; R.G. Shaw; R.B. Huey

2008-01-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (...

Climate-induced changes in vulnerability to biological threats in the southern United States

Treesearch

Rabiu Olatinwo; Qinfeng Guo; Songlin Fei; William Otrosina; Kier Klepzig; Douglas Streett

2014-01-01

Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex interactions make...

How Teachers' Beliefs about Climate Change Influence Their Instruction, Student Understanding, and Willingness to Take Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trendell Nation, Molly

2017-01-01

Climate change science is complex and controversial in nature, yet seen by educators and policy makers as an important topic to be taught within secondary science education. This is becoming increasingly evident with the inclusion of climate change into the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) for Earth and Space Sciences as well as Life…

Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

2012-04-01

It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

Climate disruption and biodiversity.

PubMed

Pimm, Stuart L

2009-07-28

'Global warming' may be a familiar term, but it is seriously misleading. Human actions are causing a massive disruption to the planet's climate that is severe, rapid, very variable over space and time, and highly complex. The biosphere itself is complex and its responses to even simple changes are difficult to predict in detail. One can likely only be certain that many changes will be unexpected and some unfortunate. Even the simple, slow warming of the climate will produce complex consequences to species numbers and distributions because of how species depend on each other. An alternative approach to worrying about details is to concentrate on understanding the most significant ecological changes, ones that are irreversible--so-called 'tipping points'. Once such a point has been passed, even if society managed to restore historical climatic conditions, it might not restore the historical ecological patterns. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the loss of species, for we cannot recreate them. Climate disruptions may cause the loss of a large fraction of the planet's biodiversity, even if the only mechanism were to be species ranges moving uphill as temperatures rise.

Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

2012-01-01

Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at Fort Huachuca, Arizona

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

2013-01-01

Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

Facing climate change in forests and fields: U.S. Forest Service taps into science-management partnerships

Treesearch

Amy Daniels; Nancy Shaw; Dave Peterson; Keith Nislow; Monica Tomosy; Mary Rowland

2014-01-01

As a growing body of science shows, climate change impacts on wildlife are already profound—from shifting species’ ranges and altering the synchronicity of food sources to changing the availability of water. Such impacts are only expected to increase in the coming decades. As climate change shapes complex, interwoven ecological processes, novel conditions and...

Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios.

PubMed

Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Nagaki, Sandra Sayuri; Sant'Ana, Denise Cristina; Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb

2015-08-19

Malaria remains a significant public health issue in South America. Future climate change may influence the distribution of the disease, which is dependent on the distribution of those Anopheles mosquitoes competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum. Herein, predictive niche models of the habitat suitability for P. falciparum, the current primary vector Anopheles darlingi and nine other known and/or potential vector species of the Neotropical Albitarsis Complex, were used to document the current situation and project future scenarios under climate changes in South America in 2070. To build each ecological niche model, we employed topography, climate and biome, and the currently defined distribution of P. falciparum, An. darlingi and nine species comprising the Albitarsis Complex in South America. Current and future (i.e., 2070) distributions were forecast by projecting the fitted ecological niche model onto the current environmental situation and two scenarios of simulated climate change. Statistical analyses were performed between the parasite and each vector in both the present and future scenarios to address potential vector roles in the dynamics of malaria transmission. Current distributions of malaria vector species were associated with that of P. falciparum, confirming their role in transmission, especially An. darlingi, An. marajoara and An. deaneorum. Projected climate changes included higher temperatures, lower water availability and biome modifications. Regardless of future scenarios considered, the geographic distribution of P. falciparum was exacerbated in 2070 South America, with the distribution of the pathogen covering 35-46% of the continent. As the current primary vector An. darlingi showed low tolerance for drier environments, the projected climate change would significantly reduce suitable habitat, impacting both its distribution and abundance. Conversely, climate generalist members of the Albitarsis Complex showed significant spatial and temporal expansion potential in 2070, and we conclude these species will become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America. Our data suggest that climate and landscape effects will elevate the importance of members of the Albitarsis Complex in malaria transmission in South America in 2070, highlighting the need for further studies addressing the bionomics, ecology and behaviours of the species comprising the Albitarsis Complex.

Interpretation of Recent Temperature Trends in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duffy, P B; Bonfils, C; Lobell, D

2007-09-21

Regional-scale climate change and associated societal impacts result from large-scale (e.g. well-mixed greenhouse gases) and more local (e.g. land-use change) 'forcing' (perturbing) agents. It is essential to understand these forcings and climate responses to them, in order to predict future climate and societal impacts. California is a fine example of the complex effects of multiple climate forcings. The State's natural climate is diverse, highly variable, and strongly influenced by ENSO. Humans are perturbing this complex system through urbanization, irrigation, and emission of multiple types of aerosols and greenhouse gases. Despite better-than-average observational coverage, we are only beginning to understand themore » manifestations of these forcings in California's temperature record.« less

Aging, Climate Change, and Legacy Thinking

PubMed Central

Fried, Linda; Moody, Rick

2012-01-01

Climate change is a complex, long-term public health challenge. Older people are especially susceptible to certain climate change impacts, such as heat waves. We suggest that older people may be a resource for addressing climate change because of their concern for legacy—for leaving behind values, attitudes, and an intact world to their children and grandchildren. We review the theoretical basis for “legacy thinking” among older people. We offer suggestions for research on this phenomenon, and for action to strengthen the sense of legacy. At a time when older populations are growing, understanding and promoting legacy thinking may offer an important strategy for addressing climate change. PMID:22698047

'Changing climate, changing health, changing stories' profile: using an EcoHealth approach to explore impacts of climate change on inuit health.

PubMed

Harper, S L; Edge, V L; Cunsolo Willox, A

2012-03-01

Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.

Heating up Climate Literacy Education: Understanding Teachers' and Students' Motivational and Affective Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinatra, G. M.

2011-12-01

Changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues, such as human-induced climate change, presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). First, climate science is complex and requires "systems thinking," or the ability to think and reason abstractly about emergent systems (Goldstone & Sakamoto, 2003). Appreciating the intricacies of complex systems and emergent processes has proven challenging for students (Chi, 2005). In addition to these challenges, there are specific misconceptions that may lead thinking astray on the issue of global climate change, such as the distinction between weather and climate (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). As an example, when students are asked about their views on climate change, they often recall individual storm events or very cold periods and use their personal experiences and recollections of short-term temperature fluctuations to assess whether the planet is warming. Beyond the conceptual difficulties, controversial topics offer another layer of challenge. Such topics are often embedded in complex socio-cultural and political contexts, have a high degree of uncertainty, and may be perceived by individuals as in conflict with their personal or religious beliefs (Levinson, 2006, Sinatra, Kardash, Taasoobshirazi, & Lombardi, 2011). Individuals are often committed to their own views on socio-scientific issues and this commitment may serve as a motivation to actively resist new ideas (Dole & Sinatra, 1998). Individuals may also have strong emotions associated with their misconceptions (Broughton, Pekrun, & Sinatra, 2011). Negative emotions, misconceptions, and resistance do not make a productive combination for learning. Further, teachers who find human-induced climate change implausible have been shown to hold negative emotions about having to teach about climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, in preparation), which could affect how they present the topic to students. In this presentation, findings from a research program exploring the role of "hot constructs" such as motivation and emotion in teaching and learning about climate change will be shared. In these studies, we have explored constructs such as emotions, misconceptions, plausibility perceptions, understanding deep time, and dispositions towards uncertainty. Results from four studies will be highlighted. In the first study, we demonstrated that comfort with ambiguity and a willingness to think deeply about issues predicted both change in attitudes towards climate change and expressed willingness to take mitigative action in college students (Sinatra, et al. 2011). In another study with college students, we demonstrated that knowledge of deep time and plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate change were related to students' understanding of weather and climate distinctions (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). In a study with graduate education students, we found that misconceptions about climate change were associated with strong emotions (Broughton, et al., 2011). With practicing teachers we have found that emotions, specifically anger and hopelessness, were significant predictors of plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, in preparation). The implications for climate change education of the findings will be discussed.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E

1999-01-01

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species.

PubMed

Rahel, Frank J; Olden, Julian D

2008-06-01

Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.

Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleick, P. H.

2014-12-01

Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

The Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)) target diseases in face of climate change.

PubMed

Yang, Guo-Jing; Utzinger, Jürg; Lv, Shan; Qian, Ying-Jun; Li, Shi-Zhu; Wang, Qiang; Bergquist, Robert; Vounatsou, Penelope; Li, Wei; Yang, Kun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2010-01-01

Climate change-according to conventional wisdom-will result in an expansion of tropical parasitic diseases in terms of latitude and altitude, with vector-borne diseases particularly prone to change. However, although a significant rise in temperature occurred over the past century, there is little empirical evidence whether climate change has indeed favoured infectious diseases. This might be explained by the complex relationship between climate change and the frequency and the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, which is characterised by nonlinear associations and countless other complex factors governing the distribution of infectious diseases. Here, we explore whether and how climate change might impact on diseases targeted by the Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)). We start our review with a short summary of the current evidence-base how climate change affects the distribution of infectious diseases. Next, we introduce biology-based models for predicting the distribution of infectious diseases in a future, warmer world. Two case studies are presented: the classical RNAS(+) disease schistosomiasis and an emerging disease, angiostrongyliasis, focussing on their occurrences in the People's Republic of China. Strengths and limitations of current models for predicting the impact of climate change on infectious diseases are discussed, and we propose model extensions to include social and ecological factors. Finally, we recommend that mitigation and adaptation strategies to diminish potential negative effects of climate change need to be developed in concert with key stakeholders so that surveillance and early-warning systems can be strengthened and the most vulnerable population groups protected. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental parameters altered by climate change affect the activity of soil microorganisms involved in bioremediation.

PubMed

Alkorta, Itziar; Epelde, Lur; Garbisu, Carlos

2017-10-16

Bioremediation, based on the use of microorganisms to break down pollutants, can be very effective at reducing soil pollution. But the climate change we are now experiencing is bound to have an impact on bioremediation performance, since the activity and degrading abilities of soil microorganisms are dependent on a series of environmental parameters that are themselves being altered by climate change, such as soil temperature, moisture, amount of root exudates, etc. Many climate-induced effects on soil microorganisms occur indirectly through changes in plant growth and physiology derived from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures, the alteration of precipitation patterns, etc., with a concomitant effect on rhizoremediation performance (i.e. the plant-assisted microbial degradation of pollutants in the rhizosphere). But these effects are extremely complex and mediated by processes such as acclimation and adaptation. Besides, soil microorganisms form complex networks of interactions with a myriad of organisms from many taxonomic groups that will also be affected by climate change, further complicating data interpretation. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

PubMed

Randalls, Samuel

2011-01-01

Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B

2008-06-13

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.

Drainage isolation and climate change-driven population expansion shape the genetic structures of Tuber indicum complex in the Hengduan Mountains region.

PubMed

Feng, Bang; Zhao, Qi; Xu, Jianping; Qin, Jiao; Yang, Zhu L

2016-02-24

The orogenesis of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Quaternary climate changes have played key roles in driving the evolution of flora and fauna in Southwest China, but their effects on higher fungi are poorly addressed. In this study, we investigated the phylogeographic pattern of the Tuber indicum species complex, an economically important fungal group distributed in the Hengduan Mountains region. Our data confirmed the existence of two distinct lineages, T. indicum and T. himalayense, within this species complex. Three geographic groups (Groups W, N and C) were revealed within T. indicum, with Group W found in the paleo-Lancang River region, while Groups N and C corresponded to the two banks along the contemporary Jinsha River, suggesting that rivers have acted as barriers for gene flow among populations from different drainages. Historical range expansion resulted from climate changes was inferred in Group C, contributing to the observed gene flow among geographic populations within this group. Although no significant geographic structure was identified in T. himalayense, evidence of drainage isolation for this species was also detected. Our findings demonstrate that both topographic changes and Quaternary climate oscillations have played important roles in driving the genetic structures of the T. indicum species complex.

Climate Impact of Solar Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H. (Editor); Arking, Albert (Editor)

1990-01-01

The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Introduction to the Special Issue on Climate Ethics: Uncertainty, Values and Policy.

PubMed

Roeser, Sabine

2017-10-01

Climate change is a pressing phenomenon with huge potential ethical, legal and social policy implications. Climate change gives rise to intricate moral and policy issues as it involves contested science, uncertainty and risk. In order to come to scientifically and morally justified, as well as feasible, policies, targeting climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach. This special issue will identify the main challenges that climate change poses from social, economic, methodological and ethical perspectives by focusing on the complex interrelations between uncertainty, values and policy in this context. This special issue brings together scholars from economics, social sciences and philosophy in order to address these challenges.

Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

Treesearch

Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2017-01-01

The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

Using Dialogue to Engage Agricultural Audiences in Cooperative Learning about Climate Change: A Strategy with Broad Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doll, Julie E.; Eschbach, Cheryl L.; DeDecker, James

2018-01-01

Dialogue with stakeholders has been recognized as an effective educational strategy for addressing complex topics such as climate change. We report here on the Carbon, Energy, and Climate fishbowl discussion series developed by Michigan State University Extension to assist the state's agricultural community in understanding and adapting to the…

Local atmospheric decoupling in complex topography alters climate change impacts

Treesearch

Christopher Daly; David R. Conklin; Michael H. Unsworth

2009-01-01

Cold air drainage and pooling occur in many mountain valleys, especially at night and during winter. Local climate regimes associated with frequent cold air pooling have substantial impacts on species phenology, distribution, and diversity. However, little is known about how the degree and frequency of cold air drainage and pooling will respond to a changing climate....

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2016-01-01

Context. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and...

The greenhouse theory of climate change - A test by an inadvertent global experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramanathan, V.

1988-01-01

The greenhouse theory of climate change has reached the crucial stage of verification. Surface warming as large as that predicted by models would be unprecedented during an interglacial period such as the present. The theory, its scope for verification, and the emerging complexities of the climate feedback mechanisms are discussed in this paper. The evidence for change is described and competing nonclimatic forcings are discussed.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: Progress report, 2016

EPA Science Inventory

When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously believed. As a result of this, human health and environmental issues will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable...

On the use of Empirical Data to Downscale Non-scientific Scepticism About Results From Complex Physical Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germer, S.; Bens, O.; Hüttl, R. F.

2008-12-01

The scepticism of non-scientific local stakeholders about results from complex physical based models is a major problem concerning the development and implementation of local climate change adaptation measures. This scepticism originates from the high complexity of such models. Local stakeholders perceive complex models as black-box models, as it is impossible to gasp all underlying assumptions and mathematically formulated processes at a glance. The use of physical based models is, however, indispensible to study complex underlying processes and to predict future environmental changes. The increase of climate change adaptation efforts following the release of the latest IPCC report indicates that the communication of facts about what has already changed is an appropriate tool to trigger climate change adaptation. Therefore we suggest increasing the practice of empirical data analysis in addition to modelling efforts. The analysis of time series can generate results that are easier to comprehend for non-scientific stakeholders. Temporal trends and seasonal patterns of selected hydrological parameters (precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater levels and river discharge) can be identified and the dependence of trends and seasonal patters to land use, topography and soil type can be highlighted. A discussion about lag times between the hydrological parameters can increase the awareness of local stakeholders for delayed environment responses.

Predictability in community dynamics.

PubMed

Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J; Graae, Bente J; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2017-03-01

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Climate change: effects on animal disease systems and implications for surveillance and control.

PubMed

de La Rocque, S; Rioux, J A; Slingenbergh, J

2008-08-01

Climate driven and other changes in landscape structure and texture, plus more general factors, may create favourable ecological niches for emerging diseases. Abiotic factors impact on vectors, reservoirs and pathogen bionomics and their ability to establish in new ecosystems. Changes in climatic patterns and in seasonal conditions may affect disease behaviour in terms of spread pattern, diffusion range, amplification and persistence in novel habitats. Pathogen invasion may result in the emergence of novel disease complexes, presenting major challenges for the sustainability of future animal agriculture at the global level. In this paper, some of the ecological mechanisms underlying the impact of climatic change on disease transmission and disease spread are further described. Potential effects of different climatic variables on pathogens and host population dynamics and distribution are complex to assess, and different approaches are used to describe the underlying epidemiological processes and the availability of ecological niches for pathogens and vectors. The invasion process can disrupt the long-term co-evolution of species. Pathogens adhering to an r-type strategy (e.g. RNA viruses) may be more inclined to encroach on a novel niche resulting from climate change. However, even when linkage between disease dynamics and climate change are relatively strong, there are other factors changing disease behaviour, and these should be accounted for as well. Overall vulnerability of a given ecosystem is a key variable in this regard. The impact of climate-driven changes varies in different parts of the world and in the different agro-climatic zones. Perhaps priority should go to those geographical areas where the integrity of the ecosystem is most severely affected and the adaptability, in terms of robustness and sustainability of response, relatively low.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, K.; Ryves, D. B.; Anderson, N. J.; Bryant, C. L.; Tyler, J. J.

2014-08-01

Equatorial East Africa has a complex regional patchwork of climate regimes, sensitive to climate fluctuations over a variety of temporal and spatial scales during the late Holocene. Understanding how these changes are recorded in and interpreted from biological and geochemical proxies in lake sedimentary records remains a key challenge to answering fundamental questions regarding the nature, spatial extent and synchroneity of climatic changes seen in East African palaeo-records. Using a paired lake approach, where neighbouring lakes share the same geology, climate and landscape, it might be expected that the systems will respond similarly to external climate forcing. Sediment cores from two crater lakes in western Uganda spanning the last ~1000 years were examined to assess diatom community responses to late Holocene climate and environmental changes, and to test responses to multiple drivers using redundancy analysis (RDA). These archives provide annual to sub-decadal records of environmental change. Lakes Nyamogusingiri and Kyasanduka appear to operate as independent systems in their recording of a similar hydrological response signal via distinct diatom records. However, whilst their fossil diatom records demonstrate an individualistic, indirect response to external (e.g. climatic) drivers, the inferred lake levels show similar overall trends and reflect the broader patterns observed in Uganda and across East Africa. The lakes appear to be sensitive to large-scale climatic perturbations, with evidence of a dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. AD 1000-1200). The diatom record from Lake Nyamogusingiri suggests a drying climate during the main phase of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (ca. AD 1600-1800), whereas the diatom response from the shallower Lake Kyasanduka is more complex (with groundwater likely playing a key role), and may be driven more by changes in silica and other nutrients, rather than by lake level. The sensitivity of these two Ugandan lakes to regional climate drivers breaks down in ca. AD 1800, when major changes in the ecosystems appear to be a response to increasing cultural impacts within the lake catchments, although both proxy records appear to respond to the drought recorded across East Africa in the mid-20th century. The data highlight the complexity of diatom community responses to external drivers (climate or cultural), even in neighbouring, shallow freshwater lakes. This research also illustrates the importance of, and the need to move towards, a multi-lake, multi-proxy landscape approach to understanding regional hydrological change which will allow for rigorous testing of climate reconstructions, climate forcing and ecosystem response models.

Using an Integrated Approach to Supporting Climate Change Literacy for Pre-Service Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, H. R.; Mattox, S.; Llerandi-Román, P. A.; Dobson, C.

2014-12-01

Educating future Americans has long been a debate; with the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) now being adopted, climate literacy has become a more dominant discussion in both the classroom and in our society where climate education has often been non-existent or dismal at best. With these new education standards climate literacy is now fundamental to science education, this means understanding climate needs to begin with those headed into the classroom with these future Americans. These educators are expected to be skilled and confident in all subject areas, including science, where they might receive less training. To address this challenge, we have focused on an interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy, which is facilitated through cross-cutting concepts in both Earth and life sciences and parallels NGSS standards. We used the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication to gauge our student's strengths and weaknesses and compare them to the general public's understanding of climate change and complex Earth processes, such as beliefs about climate change, understanding the greenhouse effect, weather versus climate, climate change past and present, impacts and solutions. After a semester of this interdisciplinary course our students felt 95% confident that they are informed about global climate change as compared to 62% of Americans that were surveyed. Our students could define and describe greenhouse effect and 82% of them could classify greenhouse gases as compared to 66% and 45% of Americans respectively. While these non-science, education students were generally more knowledgeable about climate change, the areas where they did not significantly outperform the general public allowed us to refocus our course to aid them in understanding this complex issue where our hopes are that they will be prepared to teach science in their future classroom which will allow their students to be competitive in today's rapidly evolving global economy.

Indicators of climate change in agricultural systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change affects all segments of the agricultural enterprise and there is mounting evidence that the continuing warming trend with shifting seasonality and intensity in precipitation will increase the vulnerability of agricultural systems. Agriculture is a complex system within the United Stat...

Teaching climate change: Pressures and practice in the middle school science classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crayne, Jennifer A.

What are middle school science teachers teaching their students about climate change? And why? This qualitative study examined the experience of middle school science teachers from western Oregon, finding that while participating teachers accept the science of climate change and express concern about it, many teachers are reluctant to make the topic a priority in their classrooms. When they do include the subject, teachers frequently address "both sides." They also report that students have persistent doubts and misconceptions about climate change. What accounts for these trends? I argue that the way teachers address climate change is a result of complex interactions between structural pressures, emotional pressures, and cultural pressures. I conclude that, in order to promote the inclusion of sound climate science instruction in public schools, advocates of climate change education need to address challenges at all these levels: structural, emotional, and cultural.

Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.

PubMed

Visschers, Vivianne H M

2018-01-01

Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Gao, X.

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity, with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also nd that dierent initial conditions lead to dierences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world.

PubMed

Tabachnick, W J

2010-03-15

Vector-borne pathogens cause enormous suffering to humans and animals. Many are expanding their range into new areas. Dengue, West Nile and Chikungunya have recently caused substantial human epidemics. Arthropod-borne animal diseases like Bluetongue, Rift Valley fever and African horse sickness pose substantial threats to livestock economies around the world. Climate change can impact the vector-borne disease epidemiology. Changes in climate will influence arthropod vectors, their life cycles and life histories, resulting in changes in both vector and pathogen distribution and changes in the ability of arthropods to transmit pathogens. Climate can affect the way pathogens interact with both the arthropod vector and the human or animal host. Predicting and mitigating the effects of future changes in the environment like climate change on the complex arthropod-pathogen-host epidemiological cycle requires understanding of a variety of complex mechanisms from the molecular to the population level. Although there has been substantial progress on many fronts the challenges to effectively understand and mitigate the impact of potential changes in the environment on vector-borne pathogens are formidable and at an early stage of development. The challenges will be explored using several arthropod-borne pathogen systems as illustration, and potential avenues to meet the challenges will be presented.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon.

PubMed

Crozier, L G; Hendry, A P; Lawson, P W; Quinn, T P; Mantua, N J; Battin, J; Shaw, R G; Huey, R B

2008-05-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon. We discuss the possible evolutionary responses in migration and spawning date egg and juvenile growth and development rates, thermal tolerance, and disease resistance. We know little about ocean migration pathways, so cannot confidently suggest the potential changes in this life stage. Climate change might produce conflicting selection pressures in different life stages, which will interact with plastic (i.e. nongenetic) changes in various ways. To clarify these interactions, we present a conceptual model of how changing environmental conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through plastic responses, phenotype distributions, affecting the force of selection. Our predictions are tentative because we lack data on the strength of selection, heritability, and ecological and genetic linkages among many of the traits discussed here. Despite the challenges involved in experimental manipulation of species with complex life histories, such research is essential for full appreciation of the biological effects of climate change.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

PubMed Central

Crozier, L G; Hendry, A P; Lawson, P W; Quinn, T P; Mantua, N J; Battin, J; Shaw, R G; Huey, R B

2008-01-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon. We discuss the possible evolutionary responses in migration and spawning date egg and juvenile growth and development rates, thermal tolerance, and disease resistance. We know little about ocean migration pathways, so cannot confidently suggest the potential changes in this life stage. Climate change might produce conflicting selection pressures in different life stages, which will interact with plastic (i.e. nongenetic) changes in various ways. To clarify these interactions, we present a conceptual model of how changing environmental conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through plastic responses, phenotype distributions, affecting the force of selection. Our predictions are tentative because we lack data on the strength of selection, heritability, and ecological and genetic linkages among many of the traits discussed here. Despite the challenges involved in experimental manipulation of species with complex life histories, such research is essential for full appreciation of the biological effects of climate change. PMID:25567630

Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

2014-12-01

Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2013-10-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Populations of concern: Chapter 9

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamble, Janet; Balbus, John; Berger, Martha; Bouye, Karen; Campbell, Vince; Chief, Karletta; Conlon, K.; Crimmins, Allison; Flanagan, Barry; Gonzalez-Maddux, C.; Hallisey, E.; Hutchins, S.; Jantarasami, L.; Khoury, S.; Kiefer, M.; Kolling, J.; Lynn, K.; Manangan, A.; McDonald, M.; Morello-Frosch, R.; Hiza, Margaret; Sheffield, P.; Thigpen Tart, K.; Watson, J.; Whyte, K.P.; Wolkin, A.F.

2016-01-01

Climate change is already causing, and is expected to continue to cause, a range of health impacts that vary across different population groups in the United States. The vulnerability of any given group is a function of its sensitivity to climate change related health risks, its exposure to those risks, and its capacity for responding to or coping with climate variability and change. Vulnerable groups of people, described here as populations of concern, include those with low income, some communities of color, immigrant groups (including those with limited English proficiency), Indigenous peoples, children and pregnant women, older adults, vulnerable occupational groups, persons with disabilities, and persons with preexisting or chronic medical conditions. Planners and public health officials, politicians and physicians, scientists and social service providers are tasked with understanding and responding to the health impacts of climate change. Collectively, their characterization of vulnerability should consider how populations of concern experience disproportionate, multiple, and complex risks to their health and well-being in response to climate change. Some groups face a number of stressors related to both climate and non-climate factors. For example, people living in impoverished urban or isolated rural areas, floodplains, coastlines, and other at-risk locations are more vulnerable not only to extreme weather and persistent climate change but also to social and economic stressors. Many of these stressors can occur simultaneously or consecutively. Over time, this “accumulation” of multiple, complex stressors is expected to become more evident1 as climate impacts interact with stressors associated with existing mental and physical health conditions and with other socioeconomic and demographic factors.

Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A 'Mental Models' Approach.

PubMed

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2017-10-01

As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing communications that are truthful, brief, relevant, clear, and tested for effectiveness. Here, we discuss the 'mental models' approach towards developing communications, which aims to help experts to meet the maxims of effective communications, and to better inform the judgments and decisions of non-expert audiences.

The effect of landscape complexity and microclimate on the thermal tolerance of a pest insect.

PubMed

Alford, Lucy; Tougeron, Kévin; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Burel, Françoise; van Baaren, Joan

2017-03-21

Landscape changes are known to exacerbate the impacts of climate change. As such, understanding the combined effect of climate and landscape on agroecosystems is vital if we are to maintain the function of agroecosystems. This study aimed to elucidate the effects of agricultural landscape complexity on the microclimate and thermal tolerance of an aphid pest to better understand how landscape and climate may interact to affect the thermal tolerance of pest species within the context of global climate change. Meteorological data were measured at the landscape level, and cereal aphids (Sitobion avenae, Metopolophium dirhodum and Rhopalosiphum padi) sampled, from contrasting landscapes (simple and complex) in winter 2013/2014 and spring 2014 in cereal fields of Brittany, France. Aphids were returned to the laboratory and the effect of landscape of origin on aphid cold tolerance (as determined by CT min ) was investigated. Results revealed that local landscape complexity significantly affected microclimate, with simple homogenous landscapes being on average warmer, but with greater temperature variation. Landscape complexity was shown to impact aphid cold tolerance, with aphids from complex landscapes being more cold tolerant than those from simple landscapes in both winter and spring, but with differences among species. This study highlights that future changes to land use could have implications for the thermal tolerance and adaptability of insects. Furthermore, not all insect species respond in a similar way to microhabitat and microclimate, which could disrupt important predator-prey relationships and the ecosystem service they provide. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Public Engagement on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, J.

2011-12-01

Climate change communication is complicated by complexity of the scientific problem, multiple perspectives on the magnitude of the risk from climate change, often acrimonious disputes between scientists, high stakes policy options, and overall politicization of the issue. Efforts to increase science literacy as a route towards persuasion around the need for a policy like cap and trade have failed, because the difficulty that a scientist has in attempting to make sense of the social and political complexity is very similar to the complexity facing the general public as they try to make sense of climate science itself. In this talk I argue for a shift from scientists and their institutions as information disseminators to that of public engagement and enablers of public participation. The goal of engagement is not just to inform, but to enable, motivate and educate the public regarding the technical, political, and social dimensions of climate change. Engagement is a two-way process where experts and decision-makers seek input and learn from the public about preferences, needs, insights, and ideas relative to climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, solutions and policy options. Effective public engagement requires that scientists detach themselves from trying to control what the public does with the acquired knowledge and motivation. The goal should not be to "sell" the public on particular climate change solutions, since such advocacy threatens public trust in scientists and their institutions. Conduits for public engagement include the civic engagement approach in the context of community meetings, and perhaps more significantly, the blogosphere. Since 2006, I have been an active participant in the climate blogosphere, focused on engaging with people that are skeptical of AGW. A year ago, I started my own blog Climate Etc. at judithcurry.com. The demographic that I have focused my communication/engagement activities are the technically educated and scientifically literate public, many of whom have become increasingly skeptical of climate science the more they investigate the topic. Specific issues that this group has with climate science include concerns that science that cannot easily be separated from risk assessment and value judgments; concern that assessments (e.g. IPCC) have become a Maxwell's daemon for climate research; inadequate assessment of our ignorance of this complex scientific issue; elite scientists and scientific institutions losing credibility with the public; political exploitation of the public's lack of understanding; and concerns about the lack of public accountability of climate science and climate models that are being used as the basis for far reaching decisions and policies. Individuals in this group have the technical ability to understand and examine climate science arguments and are not prepared to cede judgment on this issue to the designated and self-proclaimed experts. This talk will describe my experiences in engaging with this group and what has been learned, both by myself and by participants in the discussion at Climate Etc.

Solar ultraviolet radiation in a changing climate

EPA Science Inventory

The projected large increases in damaging ultraviolet radiation as a result of global emissions of ozone-depleting substances have been forestalled by the success of the Montreal Protocol. New challenges are now arising in relation to climate change. We highlight the complex inte...

[New infectious diseases in Finland--caused by climate change?].

PubMed

Vapalahti, Olli; Ruuhela, Reija; Henttonen, Heikki

2012-01-01

Although the appearance and spreading of most new infectious diseases are likely to be due to globalization or socio-economic changes, the occurrence of tick-, insect- and rodent-borne infections is at least partially dependent on climate variability and change. Climate influences the distribution and life cycle of vectors of arthropod-borne viruses as well as viral evolution and efficacy of transmission. The natural circulation of many pathogens and the development of epidemics are dependent on complex ecological factors, such as biodiversity and predator-prey cycles that in turn are indirectly linked to climate.

Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Reser, Joseph P; Swim, Janet K

2011-01-01

This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.

A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2012-11-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Using Nitrogen Stable Isotope Tracers to Track Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Salt Marshes

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change impacts on coastal salt marshes are predicted to be complex and multi-faceted. In addition to rising sea level and warmer water temperatures, regional precipitation patterns are also expected to change. At least in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S., more severe s...

Citizenship for a Changing Global Climate: Learning from New Zealand and Norway

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayward, Bronwyn; Selboe, Elin; Plew, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Young citizens under the age of 25?years make up just under half of the world's population. Globally, they face new, interrelated problems of dangerous environmental change, including increasing incidence of severe storms associated with a changing climate, and related new threats to human security. Addressing the complex challenge of climate…

Complex life cycles and the responses of insects to climate change.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Woods, H Arthur; Buckley, Lauren B; Potter, Kristen A; MacLean, Heidi J; Higgins, Jessica K

2011-11-01

Many organisms have complex life cycles with distinct life stages that experience different environmental conditions. How does the complexity of life cycles affect the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms to climate change? We address this question by exploring several recent case studies and synthetic analyses of insects. First, different life stages may inhabit different microhabitats, and may differ in their thermal sensitivities and other traits that are important for responses to climate. For example, the life stages of Manduca experience different patterns of thermal and hydric variability, and differ in tolerance to high temperatures. Second, life stages may differ in their mechanisms for adaptation to local climatic conditions. For example, in Colias, larvae in different geographic populations and species adapt to local climate via differences in optimal and maximal temperatures for feeding and growth, whereas adults adapt via differences in melanin of the wings and in other morphological traits. Third, we extend a recent analysis of the temperature-dependence of insect population growth to demonstrate how changes in temperature can differently impact juvenile survival and adult reproduction. In both temperate and tropical regions, high rates of adult reproduction in a given environment may not be realized if occasional, high temperatures prevent survival to maturity. This suggests that considering the differing responses of multiple life stages is essential to understand the ecological and evolutionary consequences of climate change. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.

PubMed

Shafer, Sarah L; Bartlein, Patrick J; Gray, Elizabeth M; Pelltier, Richard T

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0-58.0°N latitude by 136.6-103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070-2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998-): a climate change-related public health narrative.

PubMed

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Lapaige, Véronique; Labbé, Yolaine

2011-01-01

This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec's new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human-environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a "public health narrative" presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998-2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002-2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006-2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and "transfrontier knowledge-to-action" for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures.

The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998–): a climate change-related public health narrative

PubMed Central

Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Lapaige, Véronique; Labbé, Yolaine

2011-01-01

This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec’s new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human–environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a “public health narrative” presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998–2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002–2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006–2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and “transfrontier knowledge-to-action” for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures. PMID:21966228

Evolution in Australia's mesic biome under past and future climates: Insights from a phylogenetic study of the Australian Rock Orchids (Dendrobium speciosum complex, Orchidaceae).

PubMed

Simpson, Lalita; Clements, Mark A; Crayn, Darren M; Nargar, Katharina

2018-01-01

The Australian mesic biome spans c. 33° of latitude along Australia's east coast and ranges and is dissected by historical and contemporary biogeographical barriers. To investigate the impact of these barriers on evolutionary diversification and to predict the impact of future climate change on the distribution of species and genetic diversity within this biome, we inferred phylogenetic relationships within the Dendrobium speciosum complex (Orchidaceae) across its distribution and undertook environmental niche modelling (ENM) under past, contemporary and projected future climates. Neighbor Joining tree inference, NeighborNet and Structure analyses of Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) profiles for D. speciosum sampled from across its distribution showed that the complex consists of two highly supported main groups that are geographically separated by the St. Lawrence gap, an area of dry sclerophyll forest and woodland. The presence of several highly admixed individuals identified by the Structure analysis provided evidence of genetic exchange between the two groups across this gap. Whereas previous treatments have recognised between one to eleven species, the molecular results support the taxonomic treatment of the complex as a single species with two subspecies. The ENM analysis supported the hypothesis that lineage divergence within the complex was driven by past climatic changes. The St. Lawrence gap represented a stronger biogeographic barrier for the D. speciosum complex during the cool and dry glacial climatic conditions of the Pleistocene than under today's interglacial conditions. Shallow genetic divergence was found within the two lineages, which mainly corresponded to three other biogeographic barriers: the Black Mountain Corridor, Glass House Mountains and the Hunter Valley. Our ENM analyses provide further support for the hypothesis that biogeographic barriers along Australia's east coast were somewhat permeable to genetic exchange due to past episodic range expansions and contractions caused by climatic change resulting in recurrent contact between previously isolated populations. An overall southward shift in the distribution of the complex under future climate scenarios was predicted, with the strongest effects on the northern lineage. This study contributes to our understanding of the factors shaping biodiversity patterns in Australia's mesic biome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Brander, Keith M; Brown, Chris; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Schwing, Franklin B; Sydeman, William J; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-11-04

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains.

PubMed

Ragettli, Silvan; Immerzeel, Walter W; Pellicciotti, Francesca

2016-08-16

Mountain ranges are the world's natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

PubMed Central

Pellicciotti, Francesca

2016-01-01

Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority. PMID:27482082

Psychological responses to the proximity of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brügger, Adrian; Dessai, Suraje; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Morton, Thomas A.; Pidgeon, Nicholas F.

2015-12-01

A frequent suggestion to increase individuals' willingness to take action on climate change and to support relevant policies is to highlight its proximal consequences, that is, those that are close in space and time. But previous studies that have tested this proximizing approach have not revealed the expected positive effects on individual action and support for addressing climate change. We present three lines of psychological reasoning that provide compelling arguments as to why highlighting proximal impacts of climate change might not be as effective a way to increase individual mitigation and adaptation efforts as is often assumed. Our contextualization of the proximizing approach within established psychological research suggests that, depending on the particular theoretical perspective one takes on this issue, and on specific individual characteristics suggested by these perspectives, proximizing can bring about the intended positive effects, can have no (visible) effect or can even backfire. Thus, the effects of proximizing are much more complex than is commonly assumed. Revealing this complexity contributes to a refined theoretical understanding of the role that psychological distance plays in the context of climate change and opens up further avenues for future research and for interventions.

What Has Caused Desertification in China?

PubMed

Feng, Qi; Ma, Hua; Jiang, Xuemei; Wang, Xin; Cao, Shixiong

2015-11-03

Desertification is the result of complex interactions among various factors, including climate change and human activities. However, previous research generally focused on either meteorological factors associated with climate change or human factors associated with human activities, and lacked quantitative assessments of their interaction combined with long-term monitoring. Thus, the roles of climate change and human factors in desertification remain uncertain. To understand the factors that determine whether mitigation programs can contribute to desertification control and vegetation cover improvements in desertified areas of China, and the complex interactions that affect their success, we used a pooled regression model based on panel data to calculate the relative roles of climate change and human activities on the desertified area and on vegetation cover (using the normalized-difference vegetation index, NDVI, which decreases with increasing desertification) from 1983 to 2012. We found similar effect magnitudes for socioeconomic and environmental factors for NDVI but different results for desertification: socioeconomic factors were the dominant factor that affected desertification, accounting for 79.3% of the effects. Climate change accounted for 46.6 and 20.6% of the effects on NDVI and desertification, respectively. Therefore, desertification control programs must account for the integrated effects of both socioeconomic and natural factors.

What Has Caused Desertification in China?

PubMed Central

Feng, Qi; Ma, Hua; Jiang, Xuemei; Wang, Xin; Cao, Shixiong

2015-01-01

Desertification is the result of complex interactions among various factors, including climate change and human activities. However, previous research generally focused on either meteorological factors associated with climate change or human factors associated with human activities, and lacked quantitative assessments of their interaction combined with long-term monitoring. Thus, the roles of climate change and human factors in desertification remain uncertain. To understand the factors that determine whether mitigation programs can contribute to desertification control and vegetation cover improvements in desertified areas of China, and the complex interactions that affect their success, we used a pooled regression model based on panel data to calculate the relative roles of climate change and human activities on the desertified area and on vegetation cover (using the normalized-difference vegetation index, NDVI, which decreases with increasing desertification) from 1983 to 2012. We found similar effect magnitudes for socioeconomic and environmental factors for NDVI but different results for desertification: socioeconomic factors were the dominant factor that affected desertification, accounting for 79.3% of the effects. Climate change accounted for 46.6 and 20.6% of the effects on NDVI and desertification, respectively. Therefore, desertification control programs must account for the integrated effects of both socioeconomic and natural factors. PMID:26525278

Climate Informatics: Accelerating Discovering in Climate Science with Machine Learning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; McQuade, Scott

2014-01-01

The goal of climate informatics, an emerging discipline, is to inspire collaboration between climate scientists and data scientists, in order to develop tools to analyze complex and ever-growing amounts of observed and simulated climate data, and thereby bridge the gap between data and understanding. Here, recent climate informatics work is presented, along with details of some of the field's remaining challenges. Given the impact of climate change, understanding the climate system is an international priority. The goal of climate informatics is to inspire collaboration between climate scientists and data scientists, in order to develop tools to analyze complex and ever-growing amounts of observed and simulated climate data, and thereby bridge the gap between data and understanding. Here, recent climate informatics work is presented, along with details of some of the remaining challenges.

Assessment of bias correction under transient climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2015-04-01

Calibration of climate simulations is necessary since large systematic discrepancies are generally found between the model climate and the observed climate. Recent studies have cast doubt upon the common assumption of the bias being stationary when the climate changes. This led to the development of new methods, mostly based on linear sensitivity of the biases as a function of time or forcing (Kharin et al. 2012). However, recent studies uncovered more fundamental problems using both low-order systems (Vannitsem 2011) and climate models, showing that the biases may display complicated non-linear variations under climate change. This last analysis focused on biases derived from the equilibrium climate sensitivity, thereby ignoring the effect of the transient climate sensitivity. Based on the linear response theory, a general method of bias correction is therefore proposed that can be applied on any climate forcing scenario. The validity of the method is addressed using twin experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). We evaluate to what extent the bias change is sensitive to the structure (frequency) of the applied forcing (here greenhouse gases) and whether the linear response theory is valid for global and/or local variables. To answer these question we perform large-ensemble simulations using different 300-year scenarios of forced carbon-dioxide concentrations. Reality and simulations are assumed to differ by a model error emulated as a parametric error in the wind drag or in the radiative scheme. References [1] H. Goosse et al., 2010: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603-633. [2] S. Vannitsem, 2011: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 911-924. [3] V.V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19705.

Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

PubMed

Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

2015-01-01

This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites - based on an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change style of assessment. Consensus statements from stakeholders also suggested concern with health sector adaptation capacity and community resilience, and what community stakeholders defined as 'last straw' climate effects in already stressed communities. Preventative action and community engagement were also seen as important, especially with regard to managing the ways that climate change can multiply socioeconomic and health outcome inequality. Above all, stakeholder responses emphasised the importance of an applied, complexity-oriented understanding of how climate and climate change impacts affect local communities and local services to compromise the overall quality of human health in these communities. Complex community-level assessments about climate change and related health risks and responses can be captured electronically in ways that offer potentially actionable information about priorities for health sector adaptation, as a first step in planning. What is valuable about these community judgements is the creation of shared values and commitments. Future iteration of the IT tool could include decision-support modules to support best practice health sector adaptation scenarios, providing participants with opportunities to develop their know-how about health sector adaptation to climate change. If managed carefully, such tools could work within a balanced portfolio of measures to help reduce the rising health burden from climate change.

Managing scientific complexity in public policy: the case of U.S. climate change legislation in the 111th Congress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, J. A.; Runci, P. J.

2009-12-01

The recent passage of the American Climate and Energy Security Act by the U.S. House of Representatives in June of this year was a landmark in U.S. efforts to move climate change legislation through Congress. Although an historic achievement, the bill (and surrounding debate) highlights many concerns about the processes by which lawmakers and the public inform themselves about scientifically relevant problems and, subsequently, by which policy responses are crafted in a context of complexity, uncertainty, and competition for resources and attention. In light of the ever-increasing specialization of expertise in the sciences and other technical fields, and the inherent complexity of scientifically relevant problems such as climate change, society faces significant hurdles in its efforts to integrate knowledge and develop sufficient understanding of these problems to which it must respond with legislation or other effective collective or individual action. The emergence of a new class of experts who act as science-policy brokers may not be sufficient to cross these hurdles. Herein, we explore how society and the scientific community in particular can work toward closing the ever-growing gap between technical knowledge and society’s ability to comprehend and use it. Both authors are currently legislative fellows working on energy and climate change issues in the U.S. Senate.

Beyond dichotomies: Gender and intersecting inequalities in climate change studies.

PubMed

Djoudi, Houria; Locatelli, Bruno; Vaast, Chloe; Asher, Kiran; Brockhaus, Maria; Basnett Sijapati, Bimbika

2016-12-01

Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a 'feminization of vulnerability' and reinforce a 'victimization' discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations.

Collaborative Observation and Research (CORE) Watersheds: new strategies for tracking the regional effects of climate change on complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdoch, P. S.

2007-12-01

The past 30 years of environmental research have shown that our world is not made up of discrete components acting independently, but rather of a mosaic of complex relations among air, land, water, living resources, and human activities. Recent warming of the climate is having a significant effect on the functioning of those systems. A national imperative is developing to quickly establish local, regional, and national systems for anticipating environmental degradation from a changing climate and developing cost-effective adaptation or mitigation strategies. In these circumstances, the debate over research versus monitoring becomes moot--there is a clear need for the integrated application of both across a range of temporal and spatial scales. A national framework that effectively addresses the multiple scales and complex multi-disciplinary processes of climate change is being assembled largely from existing programs through collaboration among Federal, State, local, and NGO organizations. The result will be an observation and research network capable of interpreting complex environmental changes at a range of spatial and temporal scales, but at less cost than if the network were funded as an independent initiative. A pilot implementation of the collaborative framework in the Delaware River Basin yielded multi-scale assessments of carbon storage and flux, and the effects of forest fragmentation and soil calcium depletion on ecosystem function. A prototype of a national climate-effects observation and research network linking research watersheds, regional surveys, remote sensing, and ecosystem modeling is being initiated in the Yukon River Basin where carbon flux associated with permafrost thaw could accelerate global warming.

Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene.

PubMed

deMenocal, P B

2001-04-27

Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.

Climate Change, Foodborne Pathogens and Illness in Higher-Income Countries.

PubMed

Lake, I R; Barker, G C

2018-03-01

We present a review of the likely consequences of climate change for foodborne pathogens and associated human illness in higher-income countries. The relationships between climate and food are complex and hence the impacts of climate change uncertain. This makes it difficult to know which foodborne pathogens will be most affected, what the specific effects will be, and on what timescales changes might occur. Hence, a focus upon current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne pathogens is essential. We highlight a number of developments that may enhance preparedness for climate change. These include the following: Adoption of novel surveillance methods, such as syndromic methods, to speed up detection and increase the fidelity of intervention in foodborne outbreaks Genotype-based approaches to surveillance of food pathogens to enhance spatiotemporal resolution in tracing and tracking of illness Ever increasing integration of plant, animal and human surveillance systems, One Health, to maximise potential for identifying threats Increased commitment to cross-border (global) information initiatives (including big data) Improved clarity regarding the governance of complex societal issues such as the conflict between food safety and food waste Strong user-centric (social) communications strategies to engage diverse stakeholder groups The impact of climate change upon foodborne pathogens and associated illness is uncertain. This emphasises the need to enhance current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne illness. A range of developments are explored in this paper to enhance preparedness.

Climate Change, Nutrition, and Bottom-Up and Top-Down Food Web Processes.

PubMed

Rosenblatt, Adam E; Schmitz, Oswald J

2016-12-01

Climate change ecology has focused on climate effects on trophic interactions through the lenses of temperature effects on organismal physiology and phenological asynchronies. Trophic interactions are also affected by the nutrient content of resources, but this topic has received less attention. Using concepts from nutritional ecology, we propose a conceptual framework for understanding how climate affects food webs through top-down and bottom-up processes impacted by co-occurring environmental drivers. The framework integrates climate effects on consumer physiology and feeding behavior with effects on resource nutrient content. It illustrates how studying responses of simplified food webs to simplified climate change might produce erroneous predictions. We encourage greater integrative complexity of climate change research on trophic interactions to resolve patterns and enhance predictive capacities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions.

PubMed

Blois, Jessica L; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Finnegan, Seth

2013-08-02

Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning About Climate Change—the Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-02-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially non-scientists, to grasp. Science education is a field which can play a crucial role in fostering meaningful education of students to become climate literate citizens (e.g., NOAA 2009; Schreiner et al., 41, 3-50, 2005). If students are, at some point, to participate in societal discussions about the sustainable development of our planet, their learning with respect to such issues needs to be supported. This includes the ability to think critically, to cope with complex scientific evidence, which is often subject to ongoing inquiry, and to reach informed decisions on the basis of factual information as well as values-based considerations. The study presented in this paper focused on efforts to advance students in (1) their conceptual understanding about climate change and (2) their socioscientific reasoning and decision making regarding socioscientific issues in general. Although there is evidence that "knowledge" does not guarantee pro-environmental behavior (e.g. Schreiner et al., 41, 3-50, 2005; Skamp et al., 97(2), 191-217, 2013), conceptual, interdisciplinary understanding of climate change is an important prerequisite to change individuals' attitudes towards climate change and thus to eventually foster climate literate citizens (e.g., Clark et al. 2013). In order to foster conceptual understanding and socioscientific reasoning, a computer-based learning environment with an embedded concept mapping tool was utilized to support senior high school students' learning about climate change and possible solution strategies. The evaluation of the effect of different concept mapping scaffolds focused on the quality of student-generated concept maps, as well as on students' test performance with respect to conceptual knowledge as well as socioscientific reasoning and socioscientific decision making.

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda.

PubMed

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J; Karoly, David J; Wiseman, John

2018-04-04

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda.

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda

PubMed Central

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Karoly, David J.; Wiseman, John

2018-01-01

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda. PMID:29617317

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

PubMed

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Bringing New Ph.D.s Together for Interdisciplinary Climate Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phelan, Liam; Jones, Holly; Marlon, Jennifer R.

2013-01-01

Climate change is complex and thus requires interdisciplinary research, and new scholars are rising to that challenge. The Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research (DISCCRS (pronounced "discourse"); see http://www.disccrs.org) brings together select groups of recent PhD graduates to encourage interdisciplinary work on climate change. The DISCCRS Symposium VII held just outside of Colorado Springs, Colo., brought together 33 graduates from fields as diverse as climatology, ecology, anthropology, and political science for an intensive week of cross-disciplinary engagement in activities like facilitation and leadership training, collaborative research development, peer networking, communication training, and analysis of working group processes.

Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Treesearch

Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

2015-01-01

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

Impacts of climate change on TN load and its control in a River Basin with complex pollution sources.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaoying; Warren, Rachel; He, Yi; Ye, Jinyin; Li, Qiaoling; Wang, Guoqing

2018-02-15

It is increasingly recognized that climate change could affect the quality of water through complex natural and anthropogenic mechanisms. Previous studies on climate change and water quality have mostly focused on assessing its impact on pollutant loads from agricultural runoff. A sub-daily SWAT model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from all known anthropogenic sources including industries, municipal sewage treatment plants, concentrated and scattered feedlot operations, rural households, and crop production in the Upper Huai River Basin. This is a highly polluted basin with total nitrogen (TN) concentrations frequently exceeding Class V of the Chinese Surface Water Quality Standard (GB3838-2002). Climate change projections produced by 16 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in the mid (2040-2060) and late (2070-2090) century were used to drive the SWAT model to evaluate the impacts of climate change on both the TN loads and the effectiveness of three water pollution control measures (reducing fertilizer use, constructing vegetative filter strips, and improving septic tank performance) in the basin. SWAT simulation results have indicated that climate change is likely to cause an increase in both monthly average and extreme TN loads in February, May, and November. The projected impact of climate change on TN loads in August is more varied between GCMs. In addition, climate change is projected to have a negative impact on the effectiveness of septic tanks in reducing TN loads, while its impacts on the other two measures are more uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, reducing fertilizer use remains the most effective measure for reducing TN loads under different climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, improving septic tank performance is relatively more effective in reducing annual TN loads, while constructing vegetative filter strips is more effective in reducing annual maximum monthly TN loads. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-01-01

Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Detecting Evidence of Climate Change in the Forests of the Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John W.; Osborne, Jesse D.

2008-01-01

Changes in land use or disturbances such as defoliation by insects, disease, or fire all affect the composition and amount of tree canopy in a forest. These changes are easy to detect. Noticing and understanding the complex ways that global or regional-scale climate change combines with these disturbances to affect forest growth patterns and succession is difficult. This is particularly true for regions where changes in climate are not the most extreme, such as the mid-latitude forests of the Eastern United States. If land and water resources are to be managed responsibly, it is important to know how well the impacts of climate change on these forests can be measured in order to provide the best information possible to respond to any future changes. The goal of this study is to test whether climate-induced changes in forests in the Eastern United States can be detected and characterized using satellite imagery.

When it rains, it pours: future climate extremes and health.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Grabow, Maggie L; Limaye, Vijay S

2014-01-01

The accelerating accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is changing global environmental conditions in unprecedented and potentially irreversible ways. Climate change poses a host of challenges to the health of populations through complex direct and indirect mechanisms. The direct effects include an increased frequency of heat waves, rising sea levels that threaten low-lying communities, anticipated extremes in the global hydrologic cycle (droughts, floods, and intense storms), and adverse effects on agricultural production and fisheries due to environmental stressors and changes in land use. Indirectly, climate change is anticipated to threaten health by worsening urban air pollution and increasing rates of infectious (particularly waterborne and vector-borne) disease transmission. To provide a state-of-the-science review on the health consequences of a changing climate. Environmental public health researchers have concluded that, on balance, adverse health outcomes will dominate under these changed climatic conditions. The number of pathways through which climate change can affect the health of populations makes this environmental health threat one of the largest and most formidable of the new century. Geographic location plays an influential role the potential for adverse health effects caused by climate change, and certain regions and populations are more vulnerable than others to expected health effects. Two kinds of strategies are available for responding to climate change: mitigation policies (which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation measures (relating to preparedness for anticipated impacts). To better understand and address the complex nature of health risks posed by climate change, interdisciplinary collaboration is critical. Efforts to move beyond our current reliance on fossil fuels to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources may offer some of the greatest health opportunities in more than a century and cobenefits beyond the health sector. Because the nations least responsible for climate change are most vulnerable to its effects, the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not merely technical, but also moral. Copyright © 2014 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Florida Bay habitat suitability for fishes and invertebrates under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Kearney, Kelly A; Butler, Mark; Glazer, Robert; Kelble, Christopher R; Serafy, Joseph E; Stabenau, Erik

2015-04-01

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearney, Kelly A.; Butler, Mark; Glazer, Robert; Kelble, Christopher R.; Serafy, Joseph E.; Stabenau, Erik

2015-04-01

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate ( Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Climate change and viticulture in Mediterranean climates: the complex response of socio-ecosystems. A comparative case study from France and Australia (1955-2040)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lereboullet, A.-L.; Beltrando, G.; Bardsley, D. K.

2012-04-01

The wine industry is very sensitive to extreme weather events, especially to temperatures above 35°C and drought. In a context of global climate change, Mediterranean climate regions are predicted to experience higher variability in rainfall and temperatures and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Some viticultural systems could be particularly at risk in those regions, considering their marginal position in the growth climatic range of Vitis vinifera, the long commercial lifespan of a vineyard, the high added-value of wine and the volatile nature of global markets. The wine industry, like other agricultural systems, is inserted in complex networks of climatic and non-climatic (other physical, economical, social and legislative) components, with constant feedbacks. We use a socio-ecosystem approach to analyse the adaptation of two Mediterranean viticultural systems to recent and future increase of extreme weather events. The present analysis focuses on two wine regions with a hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSb type in the Köppen classification): Côtes-du-Roussillon in southern France and McLaren Vale in southern Australia. Using climate data from two synoptic weather stations, Perpignan (France) and Adelaide (Australia), with time series running from 1955 to 2010, we highlight changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in the number of days with Tx >35°c since the last three decades in both regions. Climate models (DRIAS project data for France and CSIRO Mk3.5 for Australia) project similar trends in the future. To date, very few projects have focused on an international comparison of the adaptive capacity of viticultural systems to climate change with a holistic approach. Here, the analysis of climate data was complemented by twenty in-depth semi-structured interviews with key actors of the two regional wine industries, in order to analyse adaptation strategies put in place regarding recent climate evolution. This mixed-methods approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of adaptation capacity of the two viticultural systems to future climate change. The strategies of grape growers and wine producers focus on maintaining optimal yields and a constant wine style adapted to markets in a variable and uncertain climate. Their implementation and efficiency depend strongly on non-climatic factors. Thus, adaptation capacity to recent and future climate change depends strongly on adaptation to other non-climatic changes.

Advancing Australia's role in climate change and health research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Donna; Pitman, Andrew; Barnett, Adrian; Kaldor, John; Doherty, Peter; Stanley, Fiona

2017-02-01

A major Australian government report published 25 years ago called for urgent investment in research on the impacts of climate change on human health. Since that report's release, less than 0.1% of Australian health funding has been allocated to this area. As the world continues on a high emissions pathway, the health impacts from climate change are increasing in size and complexity. While Australia has established leadership roles in climate science and health research, it must now link these two strengths. Doing so would boost regional understanding of how climate change will affect health and what adaptation strategies are needed to reduce these threats. Such research would support better health planning and decision-making in partnership with other regional countries.

The complex relationship between climate and sugar maple health: Climate change implications in Vermont for a key northern hardwood species

Treesearch

Evan M. Oswald; Jennifer Pontius; Shelly A. Rayback; Paul G. Schaberg; Sandra H. Wilmot; Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux

2018-01-01

This study compared 141 ecologically relevant climate metrics to field assessments of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) canopy condition across Vermont, USA from 1988 to 2012. After removing the influence of disturbance events during this time period to isolate the impact of climate, we identified five climate metrics that were significantly...

A method for screening climate change-sensitive infectious diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin

2015-01-14

Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change.

A Method for Screening Climate Change-Sensitive Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin

2015-01-01

Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change. PMID:25594780

Source Effects and Plausibility Judgments When Reading about Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lombardi, Doug; Seyranian, Viviane; Sinatra, Gale M.

2014-01-01

Gaps between what scientists and laypeople find plausible may act as a barrier to learning complex and/or controversial socioscientific concepts. For example, individuals may consider scientific explanations that human activities are causing current climate change as implausible. This plausibility judgment may be due-in part-to individuals'…

Enhancing Students' Scientific and Quantitative Literacies through an Inquiry-Based Learning Project on Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCright, Aaron M.

2012-01-01

Promoting sustainability and dealing with complex environmental problems like climate change demand a citizenry with considerable scientific and quantitative literacy. In particular, students in the STEM disciplines of (biophysical) science, technology, engineering, and mathematics need to develop interdisciplinary skills that help them understand…

Distinguishing Complex Ideas about Climate Change: Knowledge Integration vs. Specific Guidance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vitale, Jonathan M.; McBride, Elizabeth; Linn, Marcia C.

2016-01-01

We compared two forms of automated guidance to support students' understanding of climate change in an online inquiry science unit. For "specific" guidance, we directly communicated ideas that were missing or misrepresented in student responses. For "knowledge integration" guidance, we provided hints or suggestions to motivate…

Cognitive and psychological science insights to improve climate change data visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harold, Jordan; Lorenzoni, Irene; Shipley, Thomas F.; Coventry, Kenny R.

2016-12-01

Visualization of climate data plays an integral role in the communication of climate change findings to both expert and non-expert audiences. The cognitive and psychological sciences can provide valuable insights into how to improve visualization of climate data based on knowledge of how the human brain processes visual and linguistic information. We review four key research areas to demonstrate their potential to make data more accessible to diverse audiences: directing visual attention, visual complexity, making inferences from visuals, and the mapping between visuals and language. We present evidence-informed guidelines to help climate scientists increase the accessibility of graphics to non-experts, and illustrate how the guidelines can work in practice in the context of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change graphics.

Scepticism and Doubt in Science and Science Education: The Complexity of Global Warming as a Socio-Scientific Issue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bryce, Tom G. K.; Day, Stephen P.

2014-01-01

This article looks critically at the complexity of the debate among climate scientists; the controversies in the science of global temperature measurement; and at the role played by "consensus." It highlights the conflicting perspectives figuring in the mass media concerned with climate change, arguing that science teachers should be…

A 15,000 year record of vegetation and climate change from a treeline lake in the Rocky Mountains, Wyoming, USA

Treesearch

Scott A. Mensing; John L. Korfmacher; Thomas Minckley; Robert C. Musselman

2012-01-01

Future climate projections predict warming at high elevations that will impact treeline species, but complex topographic relief in mountains complicates ecologic response, and we have a limited number of long-term studies examining vegetation change related to climate. In this study, pollen and conifer stomata were analyzed from a 2.3 m sediment core extending to 15,...

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

How Did Climate and Humans Respond to Past Volcanic Eruptions?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toohey, Matthew; Ludlow, Francis; Legrande, Allegra N.

2016-01-01

To predict and prepare for future climate change, scientists are striving to understand how global-scale climatic change manifests itself on regional scales and also how societies adapt or don't to sometimes subtle and complex climatic changes. In this regard, the strongest volcanic eruptions of the past are powerful test cases, showcasing how the broad climate system responds to sudden changes in radiative forcing and how societies have responded to the resulting climatic shocks. These issues were at the heart of the inaugural workshop of the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS) Working Group, convened in June 2016 at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y. The 3-day meeting gathered approximately 50 researchers, who presented work intertwining the history of volcanic eruptions and the physical processes that connect eruptions with human and natural systems on a global scale.

A problem-oriented approach to understanding adaptation: lessons learnt from Alpine Shire, Victoria Australia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, Carolina

2010-05-01

Climate change is gaining attention as a significant strategic issue for localities that rely on their business sectors for economic viability. For businesses in the tourism sector, considerable research effort has sought to characterise the vulnerability to the likely impacts of future climate change through scenarios or ‘end-point' approaches (Kelly & Adger, 2000). Whilst useful, there are few demonstrable case studies that complement such work with a ‘start-point' approach that seeks to explore contextual vulnerability (O'Brien et al., 2007). This broader approach is inclusive of climate change as a process operating within a biophysical system and allows recognition of the complex interactions that occur in the coupled human-environmental system. A problem-oriented and interdisciplinary approach was employed at Alpine Shire, in northeast Victoria Australia, to explore the concept of contextual vulnerability and adaptability to stressors that include, but are not limited to climatic change. Using a policy sciences approach, the objective was to identify factors that influence existing vulnerabilities and that might consequently act as barriers to effective adaptation for the Shire's business community involved in the tourism sector. Analyses of results suggest that many threats, including the effects climate change, compete for the resources, strategy and direction of local tourism management bodies. Further analysis of conditioning factors revealed that many complex and interacting factors define the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the Shire's tourism sector to the challenges of global change, which collectively have more immediate implications for policy and planning than long-term future climate change scenarios. An approximation of the common interest, i.e. enhancing capacity in business acumen amongst tourism operators, would facilitate adaptability and sustainability through the enhancement of social capital in this business community. Kelly, P. M., & Adger, W. N. (2000). Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climatic change and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change, 47, 325-352. O'Brien, K., Eriksen, S., Nygaard, L. P., & Schjolden, A. (2007). Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Climate Policy, 7, 73-88.

Regional Glacier Sensitivity to Climate Change in the Monsoonal Himalaya: Implications for Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupper, S.; Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Tsering, K.; Rinzin, T.; Dorji, C.; Johnson, E. S.; Cook, E. R.

2014-12-01

The rapid retreat of many glaciers in the monsoonal Himalaya is of potential societal concern. However, the retreat pattern in the region has been very heterogeneous, likely due in part to the inherent heterogeneity of climate and glaciers within the region. Assessing the impacts of glacier change on water resources, hydroelectric power, and hazard potential requires a detailed understanding of this potentially complex spatial pattern of glacier sensitivity to climate change. Here we quantify glacier surface-mass balance and meltwater flux across the entire glacierized region of the Bhutanese watershed using a full surface-energy and -mass balance model validated with field data. We then test the sensitivity of the glaciers to climatic change and compare the results to a thirty-year record of glacier volume changes. Bhutan is chosen because it (1) sits in the bulls-eye of the monsoon, (2) has >600 glaciers that exhibit the extreme glacier heterogeneity typical of the Himalayas, and (3) faces many of the economic and hazard challenges associated with glacier changes in the Himalaya. Therefore, the methods and results from this study should be broadly applicable to other regions of the monsoonal Himalaya. Our modeling results show a complex spatial pattern of glacier sensitivity to changes in climate across the Bhutanese Himalaya. However, our results also show that <15% of the glaciers in Bhutan account for >90% of the total meltwater flux, and that these glaciers are uniformly the glaciers most sensitive to changes in temperature (and less sensitive to other climate variables). We compare these results to a thirty-year record of glacier volume changes over the same region. In particular, we extract DEMs and orthorectified imagery from 1976 historical spy satellite images and 2006 ASTER images. DEM differencing shows that the glaciers that have changed most over the past thirty years also have the highest modeled temperature sensitivity. These results suggest that, despite the complex glacier heterogeneity in the region, the regional meltwater resources are controlled by a very small percentage of the glaciers, and that these glaciers are particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature.

Deconstructing mammal dispersals and faunal dynamics in SW Europe during the Quaternary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palombo, Maria Rita

2014-07-01

This research aims to investigate the relationships between climate change and faunal dynamics in south-west Europe, disentangling the asynchronous and diachronous dispersal bioevents of large mammals across geographical and ecological boundaries, analysing biodiversity and its changes through time. The analysis of local versus regional biological dynamics may shed new light on whether turnovers and ecological and evolutionary changes developed because of global climate changes and related phenomena, or because of intrinsic biological factors. The SW European Quaternary fossil record is particularly suitable for studying the role of climate change at local and regional levels because of the complex physiographic and climatic heterogeneity of the study area, the presence of important geographical/ecological barriers and the complex history of invasions of species of varying geographical origin and provenance. The data base consists of taxonomically revised lists of large mammal species from selected SW European local faunal assemblages ranging in age from the Early to the late Middle Pleistocene (middle Villafranchian to early Aurelian European Land Mammal Ages). The new biochronological scheme proposed here allows for the comparison of local turnovers and biodiversity trends, yielding a better understanding of the action of geographical/ecological barriers that either prevented the range of some taxa from reaching some regions or caused delays in the dispersal of a taxon in some territories. The results obtained provide evidence that major environmental perturbations, triggering dispersal events and removing keystone species, modified the structure of the pre-existing mammalian faunas, merging previously independently-evolved taxa into new palaeo-communities. The coupled action of climatic changes and internal biotic dynamics thus caused the Quaternary SW European faunal complexes to significantly restructure. Diachroneity in local turnover across the study area probably relates to differences in local dynamic patterns of competition/coevolution, although different manifestations of global climate changes in different geographic settings would have contributed to the scale of local bioevents.

Understanding and managing trust at the climate science-policy interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacey, Justine; Howden, Mark; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Colvin, R. M.

2018-01-01

Climate change effects are accelerating, making the need for appropriate actions informed by sound climate knowledge ever more pressing. A strong climate science-policy relationship facilitates the effective integration of climate knowledge into local, national and global policy processes, increases society's responsiveness to a changing climate, and aligns research activity to policy needs. This complex science-policy relationship requires trust between climate science `producers' and `users', but our understanding of trust at this interface remains largely uncritical. To assist climate scientists and policymakers, this Perspective provides insights into how trust develops and operates at the interface of climate science and policy, and examines the extent to which trust can manage — or even create — risk at this interface.

Inadvertent Weather Modification in Urban Areas: Lessons for Global Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the nation's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multi disciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

Long-term integrated studies show complex and surprising effects of climate change in northern hardwood forests

Treesearch

Peter M. Groffman; Lindsey Rustad; Pamela H. Templer; John Campbell; Lynn M. Christenson; Nina K. Lany; Anne M. Socci; Matthew A. Vadeboncoeur; Paul Schaberg; Geoffrey F. Wilson; Charles T. Driscoll; Timothy J. Fahey; Melany C. Fisk; Christine L. Goodale; Mark B. Green; Steven P. Hamburg; Chris E. Johnson; Myron J. Mitchell; Jennifer L. Morse; Linda H. Pardo; Nicholas L. Rodenhouse

2012-01-01

Evaluations of the local effects of global change are often confounded by the interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors that overshadow the effects of climate changes on ecosystems. Long-term watershed and natural elevation gradient studies at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and in the surrounding region show surprising results demonstrating the effects...

Climate Change Education: Student Media Production to Educate and Engage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Brisk, A. A.; Ledley, T. S.; Shuldman, M.

2011-12-01

Climate change education offers many challenges, including the complexity of the natural and human systems involved, a need for a multi-disciplinary perspective, and the psychological barriers to learning that result from a problem that frequently elicits a sense of being overwhelmed and powerless. The implications of climate change impacts and/or solutions can be especially overwhelming for today's students, who are likely to be confronted with many projected changes within their lifetimes. We are developing approaches to incorporate video production by students at both the high school and university levels in order to overcome many of the challenges unique to climate change education. Through media production, students are asked to convey complex topics using clear, simple language and metaphor, so their content knowledge must be deep enough to educate others. Video production is a team effort (director, camera person, editor, etc.) and inherently creates an opportunity for learning in a social context, which has been shown to lead to better learning outcomes in climate change education. Video production also promotes the basic tenets of engagement theory, in which a small group of students is in constant contact with the content and, ideally, creates a product that can be disseminated broadly. Lastly, putting students behind the camera can give them a voice and a sense of empowerment, fostering active participation in the learning process. While video is a medium that is readily disseminated to a broad audience, our focus is on the process (i.e., learning outcomes of students directly involved in media production), not the product. However, we have found that providing students with a means to add their voices to the broader public's discussion of climate change has a positive impact on student engagement with climate change science and on public awareness this problem beyond the classroom. While student-produced media pieces are not intended to provide in-depth scientific information to the broader public, we have found that they can be successful in conveying some of the key, basic concepts needed to understand anthropogenic climate change. Some of these concepts include the causal relationships between fossil fuel-based energy systems, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and climate change; the distinction between natural and anthropogenic processes in the carbon cycle; impacts of climate change on ecosystem services; and transitioning to renewable energy systems that do not emit carbon dioxide is necessary to avert 'dangerous' climate change.

Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.

PubMed

Prather, Chelse M; Pelini, Shannon L; Laws, Angela; Rivest, Emily; Woltz, Megan; Bloch, Christopher P; Del Toro, Israel; Ho, Chuan-Kai; Kominoski, John; Newbold, T A Scott; Parsons, Sheena; Joern, A

2013-05-01

The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Individual contributions of climate and vegetation change to soil moisture trends across multiple spatial scales.

PubMed

Feng, Huihui

2016-09-07

Climate and vegetation change are two dominating factors for soil moisture trend. However, their individual contributions remain unknown due to their complex interaction. Here, I separated their contributions through a trajectory-based method across the global, regional and local scales. Our results demonstrated that climate change accounted for 98.78% and 114.64% of the global drying and wetting trend. Vegetation change exhibited a relatively weak influence (contributing 1.22% and -14.64% of the global drying and wetting) because it occurred in a limited area on land. Regionally, the impact of vegetation change cannot be neglected, which contributed -40.21% of the soil moisture change in the wetting zone. Locally, the contributions strongly correlated to the local environmental characteristics. Vegetation negatively affected soil moisture trends in the dry and sparsely vegetated regions and positively in the wet and densely vegetated regions. I conclude that individual contributions of climate and vegetation change vary at the global, regional and local scales. Climate change dominates the soil moisture trends, while vegetation change acts as a regulator to drying or wetting the soil under the changing climate.

The Post-Glacial Species Velocity of Picea glauca following the Last Glacial Maximum in Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, B. D.; Napier, J.; Kelly, R.; Li, B.; Heath, K.; Hug, B.; Hu, F.; Greenberg, J. A.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is leading to dramatic fluctuations to Earth's biodiversity that has not been observed since past interglacial periods. There is rising concern that Earth's warming climate will have significant impacts to current species ranges and the ability of a species to persist in a rapidly changing environment. The paleorecord provides information on past species distributions in relation to climate change, which can illuminate the patterns of potential future distributions of species. Particularly in areas where there are multiple potential limiting factors on a species' range, e.g. temperature, radiation, and evaporative demand, the spatial patterns of species migrations may be particularly complex. In this study, we assessed the change in the distributions of white spruce (Picea glauca) from the Last Glacial Maxima (LGM) to present-day for the entire state of Alaska. To accomplish this, we created species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated from modern vegetation data and high-resolution, downscaled climate surfaces at 60m. These SDMs were applied to downscaled modern and paleoclimate surfaces to produce estimated ranges of white spruce during the LGM and today. From this, we assessed the "species velocity", the rate at which white spruce would need to migrate to keep pace with climate change, with the goal of determining whether the expansion from the LGM to today originated from microclimate refugia. Higher species velocities indicate locations where climate changed drastically and white spruce would have needed to migrate rapidly to persist and avoid local extinction. Conversely, lower species velocities indicated locations where the local climate was changing less rapidly or was within the center of the range of white spruce, and indicated locations where white spruce distributions were unlikely to have changed significantly. Our results indicate the importance of topographic complexity in buffering the effects of climate change, particularly near the edges of the species' range.

Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.

PubMed

Hopkins, Debbie

2015-03-01

Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.

Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species’ distribution and abundance changes

PubMed Central

Palmer, Georgina; Hill, Jane K.; Brereton, Tom M.; Brooks, David R.; Chapman, Jason W.; Fox, Richard; Oliver, Tom H.; Thomas, Chris D.

2015-01-01

The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population “forcing” (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species’ responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized. PMID:26601276

Climate Change: A Review of Its Health Impact and Percieved Awareness by the Young Citizens

PubMed Central

Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

2014-01-01

In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University’s students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. PMID:24999143

Climate change: a review of its health impact and perceived awareness by the young citizens.

PubMed

Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

2014-04-16

In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University's students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

2005-01-01

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf

2013-04-01

There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a subsequent variety of management options and adaptation strategies. Therefore, the 4-year FP7-project CLIMB (Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins, GA: 244151) includes a major focus on the assessment and quantification of uncertainties. First, CLIMB employs a rigorous climate change model analysis, auditing the Global and Regional Climate Model data available through the ENSEMBLES and PRUDENCE initiatives. The audits lead to select the best regional performers as compared to observed values during the climatic reference period (1971- 2000). Specific bias correction and downscaling procedures are applied to provide the driving inputs and meet the demands of the subsequent impact models, transferring a future climate signal (2041-2070) into hydrological quantities at the catchment or landscape scale. However, very limited quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment, where predictive power becomes more and more important and raises the demand for process-based and spatially explicit model types. Thus, CLIMB uses hydrological model ensembles to analyze the performance of existing models and works to identify the appropriate level of model complexity, and thus to determine the data specifications required to provide robust results in a climate change context. The presentation focuses on the CLIMB multi-level strategy to uncertainty assessment and highlights latest findings in some of the seven CLIMB case studies. In particular, the presentation will demonstrate the current constraints of hydro-meteorological data availability and processing and searches for solutions that can eventually be provided by integrating hydro-meteorology and ICT research communities.

A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the Northwestern U.S.

Treesearch

J.S. Littell; D.L. Peterson

2005-01-01

Borrowing from landscape ecology, atmospheric science, and integrated assessment, we aim to understand the complex interactions that determine productivity in montane forests and utilize such relationships to forecast montane forest vulnerability under global climate change. Specifically, we identify relationships for precipitation and temperature that govern the...

Modeling climate change impacts on the forest sector

Treesearch

John R. Mills; Ralph Alig; Richard W. Haynes; Darius M. Adams

2000-01-01

The forest sector has had a relatively long history of applying sectorial models to estimate the effects of atmospheric issues such as acid rain, climate change, and the forestry impacts of reduced atmospheric ozone. The models of the forest sector vary in scope and complexity but share a number of common features and databases.

Forest management for mitigation and adaptation: insights from long-term silvicultural experiments

Treesearch

Anthony W. D' Amato; John B. Bradford; Shawn Fraver; Brian J. Palik

2011-01-01

Developing management strategies for addressing global climate change has become an increasingly important issue influencing forest management around the globe. Currently, management approaches are being proposed that intend to (1) mitigate climate change by enhancing forest carbon stores and (2) foster adaptation by maintaining compositionally and structurally complex...

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead

PubMed Central

Walter, Katharine S.; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O.; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J.; Boos, William R.; Weinberger, Daniel M.; Pitzer, Virginia E.

2017-01-01

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. PMID:28814655

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead.

PubMed

Metcalf, C Jessica E; Walter, Katharine S; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J; Boos, William R; Weinberger, Daniel M; Pitzer, Virginia E

2017-08-16

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. © 2017 The Authors.

The Nested Regional Climate Model: An Approach Toward Prediction Across Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, J. W.; Holland, G. J.; Large, W. G.

2008-12-01

The reality of global climate change has become accepted and society is rapidly moving to questions of consequences on space and time scales that are relevant to proper planning and development of adaptation strategies. There are a number of urgent challenges for the scientific community related to improved and more detailed predictions of regional climate change on decadal time scales. Two important examples are potential impacts of climate change on North Atlantic hurricane activity and on water resources over the intermountain West. The latter is dominated by complex topography, so that accurate simulations of regional climate variability and change require much finer spatial resolution than is provided with state-of-the-art climate models. Climate models also do not explicitly resolve tropical cyclones, even though these storms have dramatic societal impacts and play an important role in regulating climate. Moreover, the debate over the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones has at times been acrimonious, and the lack of hard evidence has left open opportunities for misinterpretation and justification of pre-existing beliefs. These and similar topics are being assessed at NCAR, in partnership with university colleagues, through the development of a Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). This is an ambitious effort to combine a state of the science mesoscale weather model (WRF), a high resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), and a climate model (CCSM) to better simulate the complex, multi-scale interactions intrinsic to atmospheric and oceanic fluid motions that are limiting our ability to predict likely future changes in regional weather statistics and climate. The NRCM effort is attracting a large base of earth system scientists together with societal groups as diverse as the Western Governor's Association and the offshore oil industry. All of these groups require climate data on scales of a few kilometers (or less), so that the NRCM program is producing unique data sets of climate change scenarios of immense interest. In addition, all simulations are archived in a form that will be readily accessible to other researchers, thus enabling a wider group to investigate these important issues.

Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

PubMed

Schwalm, Donelle; Epps, Clinton W; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Monahan, William B; Castillo, Jessica A; Ray, Chris; Jeffress, Mackenzie R

2016-04-01

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

PubMed Central

Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas. PMID:26488750

High skill in low-frequency climate response through fluctuation dissipation theorems despite structural instability.

PubMed

Majda, Andrew J; Abramov, Rafail; Gershgorin, Boris

2010-01-12

Climate change science focuses on predicting the coarse-grained, planetary-scale, longtime changes in the climate system due to either changes in external forcing or internal variability, such as the impact of increased carbon dioxide. The predictions of climate change science are carried out through comprehensive, computational atmospheric, and oceanic simulation models, which necessarily parameterize physical features such as clouds, sea ice cover, etc. Recently, it has been suggested that there is irreducible imprecision in such climate models that manifests itself as structural instability in climate statistics and which can significantly hamper the skill of computer models for climate change. A systematic approach to deal with this irreducible imprecision is advocated through algorithms based on the Fluctuation Dissipation Theorem (FDT). There are important practical and computational advantages for climate change science when a skillful FDT algorithm is established. The FDT response operator can be utilized directly for multiple climate change scenarios, multiple changes in forcing, and other parameters, such as damping and inverse modelling directly without the need of running the complex climate model in each individual case. The high skill of FDT in predicting climate change, despite structural instability, is developed in an unambiguous fashion using mathematical theory as guidelines in three different test models: a generic class of analytical models mimicking the dynamical core of the computer climate models, reduced stochastic models for low-frequency variability, and models with a significant new type of irreducible imprecision involving many fast, unstable modes.

Climatic variability leads to later seasonal flowering of Floridian plants.

PubMed

Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David

2010-07-21

Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses.

Modeling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Mediterranean During the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2017-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

Vegetation responses to abrupt climatic changes during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage 5) at Tenaghi Philippon, NE Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner, A. M.; Roucoux, K. H.; Collier, R. E. L.; Müller, U. C.; Pross, J.; Tzedakis, P. C.

2016-12-01

The discovery that climate variability during the Last Glacial shifted rapidly between climate states has intensified efforts to understand the distribution, timing and impact of abrupt climate change under a wide range of boundary conditions. In contribution to this, we investigate the nature of abrupt environmental changes in terrestrial settings of the Mediterranean region during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 5) and explore the relationships of these changes to high-latitude climate events. We present a new, temporally highly resolved (mean: 170 years) pollen record for the Last Interglacial Complex from Tenaghi Philippon, north-east Greece. The new pollen record, which spans the interval from 130,000 to 65,000 years ago, forms part of an exceptionally long polleniferous sediment archive covering the last 1.35 million years. The pollen data reveal an interglacial followed by alternating forest and steppe phases representing the interstadials and stadials of the Early Glacial. Superimposed on these millennial-scale changes is evidence of persistent sub-millennial-scale variability. We identify ten high-amplitude abrupt events in the pollen record, characterised by rapid contractions of closed forest to open steppe environment and interpreted to indicate major changes in moisture availability and temperature. The contractions in forest cover on millennial timescales appear associated with cooling events in the Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic and Greenland regions, linked to the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the Early Glacial. On sub-millennial timescales, the pattern of changes in forest cover at Tenaghi Philippon display a structure similar to the pattern of short-lived precursor and rebound-type events detected in the Greenland ice-core record. Our findings indicate that persistent, high-amplitude environmental variability occurred throughout the Early Glacial, on both millennial and submillennial timescales. Furthermore, the similarity of the pattern of change between Tenaghi Philippon and Greenland on sub-millennial timescales suggests that teleconnections between the high-latitudes and the Mediterranean region operate on sub-millennial timescales and that some terrestrial archives, such as Tenaghi Philippon, are particularly sensitive recorders of these abrupt climate changes.

Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Environmental Health: Implications for the Nursing Profession.

PubMed

Nicholas, Patrice K; Breakey, Suellen

2017-11-01

Climate change is an emerging challenge linked to negative outcomes for the environment and human health. Since the 1960s, there has been a growing recognition of the need to address climate change and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions implicated in the warming of our planet. There are also deleterious health outcomes linked to complex climate changes that are emerging in the 21st century. This article addresses the social justice issues associated with climate change and human health and discussion of climate justice. Discussion paper. A literature search of electronic databases was conducted for articles, texts, and documents related to climate change, climate justice, and human health. The literature suggests that those who contribute least to global warming are those who will disproportionately be affected by the negative health outcomes of climate change. The concept of climate justice and the role of the Mary Robinson Foundation-Climate Justice are discussed within a framework of nursing's professional responsibility and the importance of social justice for the world's people. The nursing profession must take a leadership role in engaging in policy and advocacy discussions in addressing the looming problems associated with climate change. Nursing organizations have adopted resolutions and engaged in leadership roles to address climate change at the local, regional, national, and global level. It is essential that nurses embrace concepts related to social justice and engage in the policy debate regarding the deleterious effects on human health related to global warming and climate change. Nursing's commitment to social justice offers an opportunity to offer significant global leadership in addressing the health implications related to climate change. Recognizing the negative impacts of climate change on well-being and the underlying socioeconomic reasons for their disproportionate and inequitable distribution can expand and optimize the profession's role in education, practice, research, and policy-making efforts to address climate change. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Changes in the Fusarium Head Blight Complex of Malting Barley in a Three-Year Field Experiment in Italy

PubMed Central

Beccari, Giovanni; Prodi, Antonio; Tini, Francesco; Bonciarelli, Umberto; Onofri, Andrea; Oueslati, Souheib; Limayma, Marwa; Covarelli, Lorenzo

2017-01-01

In this study, conducted for three years on eleven malting barley varieties cultivated in central Italy, the incidence of different mycotoxigenic fungal genera, the identification of the Fusarium species associated with the Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) complex, and kernels contamination with deoxynivalenol (DON) and T-2 mycotoxins were determined. The influence of climatic conditions on Fusarium infections and FHB complex composition was also investigated. Fusarium species were always present in the three years and the high average and maximum temperatures during anthesis mainly favored their occurrence. The FHB complex was subject to changes during the three years and the main causal agents were F. poae, F. avenaceum, F. tricinctum and F. graminearum, which, even if constantly present, never represented the principal FHB agent. The relative incidence of Fusarium species changed because of climatic conditions occurring during the seasons. The FHB complex was composed of many different Fusarium species and some of them were associated with a specific variety and/or with specific weather parameters, indicating that the interaction between a certain plant genotype and climatic conditions may influence the presence of Fusarium spp. causing infections. With regard to mycotoxin contamination, T-2 toxin, in some cases, was found in kernels at levels that exceeded EU recommended values. PMID:28353653

Adapting regional watershed management to climate change in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf; Muerth, Markus; Schmid, Josef; Jobst, Andreas; Caya, Daniel; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Chaumont, Diane; Velazquez, Juan-Alberto; Turcotte, Richard; Ricard, Simon

2013-04-01

The international research project QBic3 (Quebec-Bavarian Collaboration on Climate Change) aims at investigating the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of regional scale catchments in Southern Quebec (Canada) and Bavaria (Germany). For this purpose, a hydro-meteorological modeling chain has been established, applying climatic forcing from both dynamical and statistical climate model data to an ensemble of hydrological models of varying complexity. The selection of input data, process descriptions and scenarios allows for the inter-comparison of the uncertainty ranges on selected runoff indicators; a methodology to display the relative importance of each source of uncertainty is developed and results for past runoff (1971-2000) and potential future changes (2041-2070) are obtained. Finally, the impact of hydrological changes on the operational management of dams, reservoirs and transfer systems is investigated and shown for the Bavarian case studies, namely the potential change in i) hydro-power production for the Upper Isar watershed and ii) low flow augmentation and water transfer rates at the Donau-Main transfer system in Central Franconia. Two overall findings will be presented and discussed in detail: a) the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows, is strongly affected by the choice of the hydrological model. It can be shown that an assessment of the changes in the hydrological cycle is best represented by a complex physically based hydrological model, computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) can give a significant level of trust for selected indicators. b) the major differences in the projected climate forcing stemming from the ensemble of dynamic climate models (GCM/RCM) versus the statistical-stochastical WETTREG2010 approach. While the dynamic ensemble reveals a moderate modification of the hydrological processes in the investigated catchments, the WETTREG2010 driven runs show a severe detraction for all water operations, mainly related to a strong decline in projected precipitation in all seasons (except winter).

Sensitivity of Ocean Chemistry and Oxygen Change to the Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, L.; Wang, S.; Zheng, M.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

With increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. In particular, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would affect the projection of ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To examine the effect of climate change on ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry, we used an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform simulations that are driven by atmospheric CO2 concentration pathway of RCP 8.5 with climate sensitivity varying from 0.0°C to 4.5 °C. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. Our simulations show that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude, to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

An Overview of the Future Development of Climate and Earth System Models for Scientific and Policy Use (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, W. M.

2010-12-01

The development of climate and earth system models has been regarded primarily as the making of scientific tools to study the complex nature of the Earth’s climate. These models have a long history starting with very simple physical models based on fundamental physics in the 1960s and over time they have become much more complex with atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land/vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological components. The policy use aspects of these models did not start in the 1960s and 1970s as decision making tools but were used to answer fundamental scientific questions such as what happens when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases or is doubled. They gave insights into the various interactions and were extensively compared with observations. It was realized that models of the earlier time periods could only give first order answers to many of the fundamental policy questions. As societal concerns about climate change rose, the policy questions of anthropogenic climate change became better defined; they were mostly concerned with the climate impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover change. In the late 1980s, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to perform assessments of the published literature. Thus, the development of climate and Earth system models became intimately linked to the need to not only improve our scientific understanding but also answering fundamental policy questions. In order to meet this challenge, the models became more complex and realistic so that they could address these policy oriented science questions such as rising sea level. The presentation will discuss the past and future development of global climate and earth system models for science and policy purposes. Also to be discussed is their interactions with economic integrated assessment models, regional and specialized models such as river transport or ecological components. As an example of one development pathway, the NSF/Department of Energy supported Community Climate System and Earth System Models will be featured in the presentation. Computational challenges will also part of the discussion.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

Innoversity in knowledge-for-action and adaptation to climate change: the first steps of an 'evidence-based climatic health' transfrontier training program.

PubMed

Lapaige, Véronique; Essiembre, Hélène

2010-01-01

It has become increasingly clear to the international scientific community that climate change is real and has important consequences for human health. To meet these new challenges, the World Health Organization recommends reinforcing the adaptive capacity of health systems. One of the possible avenues in this respect is to promote awareness and knowledge translation in climatic health, at both the local and global scales. Within such perspective, two major themes have emerged in the field of public health research: 1) the development of advanced training adapted to 'global environment' change and to the specific needs of various groups of actors (doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, health care managers, public service managers, local communities, etc) and 2) the development of strategies for implementing research results and applying various types of evidence to the management of public health issues affected by climate change. Progress on these two fronts will depend on maximum innovation in transdisciplinary and transsectoral collaborations. The general purpose of this article is to present the program of a new research and learning chair designed for this double set of developmental objectives - a chair that emphasizes 'innoversity' (the dynamic relationship between innovation and diversity) and 'transfrontier ecolearning for adaptive actions'. The Écoapprentissages, santé mentale et climat collaborative research chair (University of Montreal and Quebec National Public Health Institute) based in Montreal is a center for 'transdisciplinary research' on the transfrontier knowledge-for-action that can aid adaptation of the public health sector, the public mental health sector, and the public service sector to climate change, as well as a center for complex collaborations on evidence-based climatic health 'training'. This program-focused article comprises two main sections. The first section presents the 'general' and 'specific contexts' in which the chair emerged. The 'general context' pertains to the health-related challenge of finding ways to integrate, transfer, and implement knowledge, a particularly pointed challenge in Canada. The 'specific context' refers to the emerging research field of adaptation of public health to climate change. In the second section, the characteristics of the research chair are more extensively detailed (the vision of 'innoversity' and ' transfrontier knowledge-for-action,' the approach of shared responsibility and complex collaboration, objectives, and major axes of research). We conclude with a call for complex collaboration toward knowledge-for-action in public health services/mental health services/public services' adaptation to climate change: this call is aimed at individual and institutional actors in the North and South/West and East concerned by these issues.

The challenges of climate for energy markets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

Among the many complex issues of technology, governance, and market design affecting the : electricity sector, climate policy has become dominant. From the perspective of a nonspecialist looking at this changing dominance, a quiz illuminates some of ...

Making Climate Hot: Preparing Scientists and Teachers for Climate Change Communication and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buhr, S. M.; Wise, S. B.

2008-05-01

Anyone having anything to do with climate change science (or even geosciences) is increasingly asked to communicate about climate change with friends and family, media, the general public, and students. But, we have often not had the training to communicate with simplicity and clarity about such a complex topic. Furthermore, the need to know how to accommodate controversy, common misconceptions, and contrarian arguments complicates the task. The CIRES Education and Outreach group has developed a short professional development workshop "Making Climate Hot: How to Communicate Effectively about Climate Change". The goals of the workshop are to make scientists and educators aware of best practices in climate change communications, provide some tools for crafting messages, and allow participants to practice skills in a supportive, low-risk environment. The "Making Climate Hot" workshop has been piloted with scientists and university communicators, teachers and environmental educators and college students anxious to communicate with family and roommates. The most and least effective aspects of the workshop will be described, along with the lessons learned and next steps.

Planning for climate change: the need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

PubMed Central

Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

2016-01-01

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance. Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hegermiller, Christie; Rueda, Ana C.; Erikson, Li H.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Antolinez, J.A.A.; Mendez, Fernando J.

2017-01-01

Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with coastal conditions. We present a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to simulating nearshore wave climate in complex coastal settings, demonstrated in the Southern California Bight, where waves arriving from distant, disparate locations are refracted over complex bathymetry and shadowed by offshore islands. Contributions of wave families and large-scale atmospheric drivers to nearshore wave energy flux are analyzed. Results highlight the variability of influences controlling wave conditions along neighboring coastlines. The universal method demonstrated here can be applied to complex coastal settings worldwide, facilitating analysis of the effects of climate change on nearshore wave climate.

Controls of Multimodal Wave Conditions in a Complex Coastal Setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegermiller, C. A.; Rueda, A.; Erikson, L. H.; Barnard, P. L.; Antolinez, J. A. A.; Mendez, F. J.

2017-12-01

Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with coastal conditions. We present a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to simulating nearshore wave climate in complex coastal settings, demonstrated in the Southern California Bight, where waves arriving from distant, disparate locations are refracted over complex bathymetry and shadowed by offshore islands. Contributions of wave families and large-scale atmospheric drivers to nearshore wave energy flux are analyzed. Results highlight the variability of influences controlling wave conditions along neighboring coastlines. The universal method demonstrated here can be applied to complex coastal settings worldwide, facilitating analysis of the effects of climate change on nearshore wave climate.

Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard

2012-06-01

Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

Validation and application of a forest gap model to the southern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Adrianna C. Foster; Jacquelyn K. Shuman; Herman H. Shugart; Kathleen A. Dwire; Paula J. Fornwalt; Jason Sibold; Jose Negron

2017-01-01

Rocky Mountain forests are highly important for their part in carbon cycling and carbon storage as well as ecosystem services such as water retention and storage and recreational values. These forests are shaped by complex interactions among vegetation, climate, and disturbances. Thus, climate change and shifting disturbances may lead to significant changes in species...

Teaching Anthropogenic Climate Change through Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Helping Students Think Critically about Science and Ethics in Dialogue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Todd, Claire; O'Brien, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a complicated issue involving scientific data and analyses as well as political, economic, and ethical issues. In order to capture this complexity, we developed an interdisciplinary student and faculty collaboration by (1) offering introductory lectures on scientific and ethical methods to two classes, (2) assigning…

Case Study 3: Species vulnerability assessment for the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch; Megan Friggens; Karen Bagne

2011-01-01

This case study describes a method for scoring terrestrial species that have potential to be vulnerable to climate change. The assessment tool seeks to synthesize complex information related to projected climate changes into a predictive tool for species conservation. The tool was designed to aid managers in prioritizing species management actions in response to...

Evidence of tree species’ range shifts in a complex landscape

Treesearch

Vicente J. Monleon; Heather E. Lintz; Sylvain Delzon

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large,...

The Teaching of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Earth Science via Technology-Enabled Inquiry Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2016-01-01

A gap has existed between the tools and processes of scientists working on anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) and the technologies and curricula available to educators teaching the subject through student inquiry. Designing realistic scientific inquiry into AGCC poses a challenge because research on it relies on complex computer models,…

Climate Change Communication by a Research Institute: Experiences, Successes, and Challenges from a North European Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyytimäki, Jari; Nygrén, Nina A.; Ala-Ketola, Ulla; Pellinen, Sirpa; Ruohomäki, Virpi; Inkinen, Aino

2013-01-01

Communicating about climate change is challenging not only because of the multidisciplinary and complex nature of the issue itself and multiple policy options related to mitigation and adaptation, but also because of the plenitude of potential communication methods coupled with limited resources for communication. This article explores climate…

Climate Change, Human Health, and Biomedical Research: Analysis of the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M.; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E.; Newton, Sheila A.; Reid, Britt C.; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P.

2013-01-01

Background: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. Objectives: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. Methods: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. Results: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Conclusions: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH’s strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health. PMID:23552460

Climate change, human health, and biomedical research: analysis of the National Institutes of Health research portfolio.

PubMed

Jessup, Christine M; Balbus, John M; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E; Newton, Sheila A; Reid, Britt C; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P

2013-04-01

According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.

Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

2017-04-01

The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct effect of climate change on the transmission of airborne diseases, there are indirect ramifications that alter spreading patterns. An example is seasonal human mobility behavior which will change with varied climate conditions. The direct and indirect effects of climate change on disease spreading patterns will be discussed in this study.

Model structures amplify uncertainty in predicted soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Shi, Zheng; Crowell, Sean; Luo, Yiqi; Moore, Berrien

2018-06-04

Large model uncertainty in projected future soil carbon (C) dynamics has been well documented. However, our understanding of the sources of this uncertainty is limited. Here we quantify the uncertainties arising from model parameters, structures and their interactions, and how those uncertainties propagate through different models to projections of future soil carbon stocks. Both the vertically resolved model and the microbial explicit model project much greater uncertainties to climate change than the conventional soil C model, with both positive and negative C-climate feedbacks, whereas the conventional model consistently predicts positive soil C-climate feedback. Our findings suggest that diverse model structures are necessary to increase confidence in soil C projection. However, the larger uncertainty in the complex models also suggests that we need to strike a balance between model complexity and the need to include diverse model structures in order to forecast soil C dynamics with high confidence and low uncertainty.

Human Health Impacts of and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebi, K. L.

2007-12-01

Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, diarrheal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, and malaria. The Human Health chapter in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, and that projected climate change will increase the risks of climate-sensitive health outcomes, particularly in lower-income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. Those at greatest risk include the urban poor, older adults, children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers, and coastal populations, particularly in low income countries. The cause-and-effect chain from climate change to changing patterns of health determinants and outcomes is complex and includes socioeconomic, institutional, and other factors. The severity of future impacts will be determined by changes in climate as well as by concurrent changes in nonclimatic factors and by the adaptation measures implemented to reduce negative impacts. Public health has a long history of effectively intervening to reduce risks to the health of individuals and communities. Lessons learned from more than 150 years of research and intervention can provide insights to guide the design and implementation of effective and efficient interventions to reduce the current and projected impacts of climate variability and change.

Climate change and human health: a One Health approach.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Hahn, Micah B

2013-01-01

Climate change adds complexity and uncertainty to human health issues such as emerging infectious diseases, food security, and national sustainability planning that intensify the importance of interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Collaboration between veterinary, medical, and public health professionals to understand the ecological interactions and reactions to flux in a system can facilitate clearer understanding of climate change impacts on environmental, animal, and human health. Here we present a brief introduction to climate science and projections for the next century and a review of current knowledge on the impacts of climate-driven environmental change on human health. We then turn to the links between ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change and health. The literature on climate impacts on biological systems is rich in both content and historical data, but the connections between these changes and human health is less understood. We discuss five mechanisms by which climate changes impacts on biological systems will be felt by the human population: Modifications in Vector, Reservoir, and Pathogen Lifecycles; Diseases of Domestic and Wild Animals and Plants; Disruption of Synchrony Between Interacting Species; Trophic Cascades; and Alteration or Destruction of Habitat. Each species responds to environmental changes differently, and in order to predict the movement of disease through ecosystems, we have to rely on expertise from the fields of veterinary, medical, and public health, and these health professionals must take into account the dynamic nature of ecosystems in a changing climate.

Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

2014-12-01

The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vegetation sensitivity to global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in a topographically complex region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diffenbaugh, N.S.; Sloan, L.C.; Snyder, M.A.; Bell, J.L.; Kaplan, J.; Shafer, S.L.; Bartlein, P.J.

2003-01-01

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations may affect vegetation distribution both directly through changes in photosynthesis and water-use efficiency, and indirectly through CO2-induced climate change. Using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4) driven by a regional climate model (RegCM2.5), we tested the sensitivity of vegetation in the western United States, a topographically complex region, to the direct, indirect, and combined effects of doubled preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Those sensitivities were quantified using the kappa statistic. Simulated vegetation in the western United States was sensitive to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with woody biome types replacing less woody types throughout the domain. The simulated vegetation was also sensitive to climatic effects, particularly at high elevations, due to both warming throughout the domain and decreased precipitation in key mountain regions such as the Sierra Nevada of California and the Cascade and Blue Mountains of Oregon. Significantly, when the direct effects of CO2 on vegetation were tested in combination with the indirect effects of CO2-induced climate change, new vegetation patterns were created that were not seen in either of the individual cases. This result indicates that climatic and nonclimatic effects must be considered in tandem when assessing the potential impacts of elevated CO2 levels.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Similarities and Differences in Barriers and Opportunities Affecting Climate Change Adaptation Action in Four North American Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lonsdale, Whitney R.; Kretser, Heidi E.; Chetkiewicz, Cheryl-Lesley B.; Cross, Molly S.

2017-12-01

Climate change presents a complex set of challenges for natural resource managers across North America. Despite recognition that climate change poses serious threats to species, ecosystems, and human communities, implementation of adaptation measures is not yet happening on a broad scale. Among different regions, a range of climate change trajectories, varying political contexts, and diverse social and ecological systems generate a myriad of factors that can affect progress on climate change adaptation implementation. In order to understand the general versus site-specific nature of barriers and opportunities influencing implementation, we surveyed and interviewed practitioners, decision-makers, and scientists involved in natural resource management in four different North American regions, northern Ontario (Canada), the Adirondack State Park (US), Arctic Alaska (US), and the Transboundary Rocky Mountains (US and Canada). Common barriers among regions related to a lack of political support and financial resources, as well as challenges related to translating complex and interacting effects of climate change into management actions. Opportunities shared among regions related to collaboration, funding, and the presence of strong leadership. These commonalities indicate the importance of cross-site learning about ways to leverage opportunities and address adaptation barriers; however, regional variations also suggest that adaptation efforts will need to be tailored to fit specific ecological, political, social and economic contexts. Comparative findings on the similarities and differences in barriers and opportunities, as well as rankings of barriers and opportunities by region, offers important contextual insights into how to further refine efforts to advance adaptation actions in those regions.

Similarities and Differences in Barriers and Opportunities Affecting Climate Change Adaptation Action in Four North American Landscapes.

PubMed

Lonsdale, Whitney R; Kretser, Heidi E; Chetkiewicz, Cheryl-Lesley B; Cross, Molly S

2017-12-01

Climate change presents a complex set of challenges for natural resource managers across North America. Despite recognition that climate change poses serious threats to species, ecosystems, and human communities, implementation of adaptation measures is not yet happening on a broad scale. Among different regions, a range of climate change trajectories, varying political contexts, and diverse social and ecological systems generate a myriad of factors that can affect progress on climate change adaptation implementation. In order to understand the general versus site-specific nature of barriers and opportunities influencing implementation, we surveyed and interviewed practitioners, decision-makers, and scientists involved in natural resource management in four different North American regions, northern Ontario (Canada), the Adirondack State Park (US), Arctic Alaska (US), and the Transboundary Rocky Mountains (US and Canada). Common barriers among regions related to a lack of political support and financial resources, as well as challenges related to translating complex and interacting effects of climate change into management actions. Opportunities shared among regions related to collaboration, funding, and the presence of strong leadership. These commonalities indicate the importance of cross-site learning about ways to leverage opportunities and address adaptation barriers; however, regional variations also suggest that adaptation efforts will need to be tailored to fit specific ecological, political, social and economic contexts. Comparative findings on the similarities and differences in barriers and opportunities, as well as rankings of barriers and opportunities by region, offers important contextual insights into how to further refine efforts to advance adaptation actions in those regions.

The Communication Strategy of NASA's Earth Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmon, R.; Ward, K.; Riebeek, H.; Allen, J.; Przyborski, P.; Scott, M.; Carlowicz, M. J.

2010-12-01

Climate change is a complex, multi-disciplinary subject. Accurately conveying this complexity to general audiences, while still communicating the basic facts, is challenging. Our approach is to combine climate change information with a wide range of Earth system science topics, illustrated by satellite imagery and data visualizations. NASA's Earth Observatory web site (earthobservatory.nasa.gov) uses the broad range of NASA's remote sensing technologies, data, and research to communicate climate change science. We serve two primary audiences: the "attentive public" --people interested in and willing to seek out information about science, technology, and the environment--and media. We cover the breadth of Earth science, with information about climate change integrated with stories about weather, geology, oceanography, and solar flares. Current event-driven imagery is used as a hook to draw readers. We then supply links to supplemental information, either about current research or the scientific basics. We use analogies, carefully explain jargon or acronyms, and build narratives which both attract readers and make information easier to remember. These narratives are accompanied by primers on topics like energy balance or the water cycle. Text is carefully integrated with illustrations and state-of-the-art data visualizations. Other site features include a growing list of climate questions and answers, addressing common misconceptions about global warming and climate change. Maps of global environmental parameters like temperature, rainfall, and vegetation show seasonal change and long-term trends. Blogs from researchers in the field provide a look at the day-to-day process of science. For the media, public domain imagery is supplied at full resolution and links are provided to primary sources.

Evaluating models of climate and forest vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, James S.

1992-01-01

Understanding how the biosphere may respond to increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere requires models that contain vegetation responses to regional climate. Most of the processes ecologists study in forests, including trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, and vital components of the world economy, such as forest products and agriculture, will be influenced in potentially unexpected ways by changing climate. These vegetation changes affect climate in the following ways: changing C, N, and S pools; trace gases; albedo; and water balance. The complexity of the indirect interactions among variables that depend on climate, together with the range of different space/time scales that best describe these processes, make the problems of modeling and prediction enormously difficult. These problems of predicting vegetation response to climate warming and potential ways of testing model predictions are the subjects of this chapter.

Designing Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

2012-12-01

In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia’s Threatened Species

PubMed Central

Lee, Jasmine R.; Maggini, Ramona; Taylor, Martin F. J.; Fuller, Richard A.

2015-01-01

Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species’ vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia’s threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species. PMID:26017785

Cool Science: Using Children's Art to Communicate Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.

2013-12-01

Cool Science is a K-12 Climate Change Science Art Competition. Working with teachers, parents, and students, the project aims to identify outstanding works of art by students about climate change and display the art throughout public mass transit. Cool Science has three distinct goals: 1) provide a convenient means for art and science teachers to incorporate climate change into their curriculum, 2) support teacher/student learning about climate change science, and 3) foster informal learning about climate change among people riding mass transit. By efficiently connecting formal and informal learning with one project, Cool Science is an innovative project that expands the way we engage and evaluate students. Using children's artwork to communicate complex scientific issues such as climate change is a powerful learning experience for the artist, teacher, and audience. Last year, Cool Science received nearly 600 entries from students representing 36 teachers from 32 school districts. Six winning entries went on public display with one highlighted each month from January through June. In addition, there were 6 Runner Ups and 12 Honorable Mentions. For the winning students, it is an unforgettable experience to see a nine-foot version of their artwork traveling around the streets on the side of a bus!

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century.

PubMed

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-09-27

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO(2) rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

PubMed Central

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-01-01

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO2 rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified. PMID:20713397

Climate stories: Why do climate scientists and sceptical voices participate in the climate debate?

PubMed

Sharman, Amelia; Howarth, Candice

2017-10-01

Public perceptions of the climate debate predominantly frame the key actors as climate scientists versus sceptical voices; however, it is unclear why climate scientists and sceptical voices choose to participate in this antagonistic and polarised public battle. A narrative interview approach is used to better understand the underlying rationales behind 22 climate scientists' and sceptical voices' engagement in the climate debate, potential commonalities, as well as each actor's ability to be critically self-reflexive. Several overlapping rationales are identified including a sense of duty to publicly engage, agreement that complete certainty about the complex assemblage of climate change is unattainable and that political factors are central to the climate debate. We argue that a focus on potential overlaps in perceptions and rationales as well as the ability to be critically self-reflexive may encourage constructive discussion among actors previously engaged in purposefully antagonistic exchange on climate change.

Climate change and occupational allergies: an overview on biological pollution, exposure and prevention.

PubMed

D'Ovidio, Maria Concetta; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; D'Amato, Gennaro; Cecchi, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

Climate change, air pollution, temperature increase and other environmental variables are modifying air quality, contributing to the increase of prevalence of allergic respiratory diseases. Allergies are complex diseases characterized by multilevel interactions between individual susceptibility, response to immune modulation and environmental exposures to physical, chemical and biological agents. Occupational allergies introduce a further complexity to these relationships by adding occupational exposure to both the indoor and outdoor ones in the living environment. The aim of this paper is to overview climate-related allergy affecting environmental and occupational health, as literature data are scanty in this regard, and to suggest a management model of this risk based on a multidisciplinary approach, taking the case of biological pollution, with details on exposure and prevention. The management of climate-related occupational allergy should take into account preventive health strategies, environmental, public and occupational interventions, as well as to develop, implement, evaluate, and improve guidelines and standards protecting workers health under changing climatic conditions; new tools and strategies based on local conditions will have to be developed. Experimental studies and acquisition of environmental and personal data have to be matched to derive useful information for the scope of occupational health and safety.

The dynamics of architectural complexity on coral reefs under climate change.

PubMed

Bozec, Yves-Marie; Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo; Mumby, Peter J

2015-01-01

One striking feature of coral reef ecosystems is the complex benthic architecture which supports diverse and abundant fauna, particularly of reef fish. Reef-building corals are in decline worldwide, with a corresponding loss of live coral cover resulting in a loss of architectural complexity. Understanding the dynamics of the reef architecture is therefore important to envision the ability of corals to maintain functional habitats in an era of climate change. Here, we develop a mechanistic model of reef topographical complexity for contemporary Caribbean reefs. The model describes the dynamics of corals and other benthic taxa under climate-driven disturbances (hurricanes and coral bleaching). Corals have a simplified shape with explicit diameter and height, allowing species-specific calculation of their colony surface and volume. Growth and the mechanical (hurricanes) and biological erosion (parrotfish) of carbonate skeletons are important in driving the pace of extension/reduction in the upper reef surface, the net outcome being quantified by a simple surface roughness index (reef rugosity). The model accurately simulated the decadal changes of coral cover observed in Cozumel (Mexico) between 1984 and 2008, and provided a realistic hindcast of coral colony-scale (1-10 m) changing rugosity over the same period. We then projected future changes of Caribbean reef rugosity in response to global warming. Under severe and frequent thermal stress, the model predicted a dramatic loss of rugosity over the next two or three decades. Critically, reefs with managed parrotfish populations were able to delay the general loss of architectural complexity, as the benefits of grazing in maintaining living coral outweighed the bioerosion of dead coral skeletons. Overall, this model provides the first explicit projections of reef rugosity in a warming climate, and highlights the need of combining local (protecting and restoring high grazing) to global (mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions) interventions for the persistence of functional reef habitats. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Climatic Variability Leads to Later Seasonal Flowering of Floridian Plants

PubMed Central

Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David

2010-01-01

Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses. PMID:20657765

77 FR 19309 - Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge Complex, Great Falls, MT; Comprehensive Conservation Plan...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-30

... protection, climate change, wetland health, water quality, hunting, wildlife observation, and environmental... Planning, 134 Union Boulevard, Suite 300, Lakewood, Colorado 80228; or by download from http://mountain... would not be expanded or changed. Habitat management within the refuge complex has been focused on...

Climate Change Impact On Mekong Delta of Vietnam in recent years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, L. T. X., III

2015-12-01

In recent years, the climate change signal increase globally. Abnormal changes of weather tends increasingly detrimental to human life, such as natural disasters occur with increasing level of more severe. Climate change is one the biggest challenges, and is a potential threat to humans. The impact of climate change increases the number and extent of the disaster fierce exists as typhoons, floods, droughts ... Global warming and sea level rise increases the area of flooding, saline intrusion and erosion in the delta region may cause farmers to lose the opportunity to produce, source of life their only. Impact of climate change on people in the community, but poor farmers in the developing countries like our country, women are the most severe consequences In this section, we summarize changes in climate on the territory of Vietnam, especially in Mekong Delta evaluate causes and its relationship to changes in global climate and region. Along with the analysis of characteristics of climate changes over time and through space to help the evolution of the standard deviation (average deviation from the standard of the period from 1971 to 2015) may indicate that the characteristic gas scenes took place related to global climate change ... Vietnam's territory stretches over approximately 15 latitude, the terrain is very complex, located in the interior full of tropical Southeast Asia. Vietnam climate strongly influenced by the Asian monsoon, monsoon and Northern Hemisphere especially the ENSO activity in the equatorial region and the Pacific Ocean. Climate Vietnam abundant and diversified, with strong ties to the region and globally.

Climate in Earth history

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berger, W. H.; Crowell, J. C.

1982-01-01

Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

What Influences Climate and Glacier Change in the Southwestern China?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yasunari, Teppei J.

2012-01-01

The subject of climate change in the areas of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Himalayas has taken on increasing importance because of available water resources from their mountain glaciers. Many of these glaciers over the region have been retreating, while some are advancing and stable. Other studies report that some glaciers in the Himalayas show acceleration on their shrinkage. However, the causes of the glacier meltings are still difficult to grasp because of the complexity of climatic change and its influence on glacier issues. However, it is vital that we pursue further study to enable the future prediction on glacier changes.

Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

PubMed

Sheets, H David; Mitchell, Charles E; Melchin, Michael J; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L; Hawkins, Andrew D

2016-07-26

Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (∼447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheets, H. David; Mitchell, Charles E.; Melchin, Michael J.; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L.; Hawkins, Andrew D.

2016-07-01

Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (˜447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

2015-05-01

The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

Preventing disasters: public health vulnerability reduction as a sustainable adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Keim, Mark E

2011-06-01

Global warming could increase the number and severity of extreme weather events. These events are often known to result in public health disasters, but we can lessen the effects of these disasters. By addressing the factors that cause changes in climate, we can mitigate the effects of climate change. By addressing the factors that make society vulnerable to the effects of climate, we can adapt to climate change. To adapt to climate change, a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction has been proposed. By reducing human vulnerability to disasters, we can lessen--and at times even prevent--their impact. Human vulnerability is a complex phenomenon that comprises social, economic, health, and cultural factors. Because public health is uniquely placed at the community level, it has the opportunity to lessen human vulnerability to climate-related disasters. At the national and international level, a supportive policy environment can enable local adaptation to disaster events. The purpose of this article is to introduce the basic concept of disaster risk reduction so that it can be applied to preventing and mitigating the negative effects of climate change and to examine the role of community-focused public health as a means for lessening human vulnerability and, as a result, the overall risk of climate-related disasters.

Regional response to drought during the formation and decline of Preclassic Maya societies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebert, Claire E.; Peniche May, Nancy; Culleton, Brendan J.; Awe, Jaime J.; Kennett, Douglas J.

2017-10-01

The earliest complex societies and a distinctive set of pan-regional social, political, and economic institutions appeared in the southern Maya lowlands during the Preclassic period (ca. 1200/1100 cal BCE-cal 300 CE). The timing of these cultural changes was variably influenced by local developments, interaction with other regions of Mesoamerica, and climate change. We present a high-resolution radiocarbon chronology for the growth of the early polity of Cahal Pech, Belize, one of the first permanent settlements in the southern Maya lowlands. We compare our results to a database containing over 1190 radiocarbon dates from cultural contexts reported from five major regions of the southern lowlands to interpret the expansion and decline of emerging complex social groups during the Preclassic. Comparisons to paleoclimate proxy datasets suggest that fluctuating climate regimes may have promoted alternating integration and fragmentation of early hierarchically organized societies. Stable climatic conditions during the Middle Preclassic (1000/900-300 cal BCE) fostered the centralization of populations and the formation of large regional polities across the southern lowlands. An extended drought at the end of the Late Preclassic (cal 150-300 CE) likely contributed to the decline of some major polities in the central Petén, but smaller sites located in productive environments were more resilient and persisted in to the Classic period. This research provides a framework for understanding the complex social and environmental factors that influenced localized adaptations to climate change and the episodic growth and decline of early complex societies in prehistory.

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles.

PubMed

Graham, C T; Harrod, C

2009-04-01

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Climate change impacts on crop yield in the Euro-Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Dentener, Frank; Niemeyer, Stefan; Dosio, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Davide

2017-04-01

Agriculture is strongly influenced by climate variability, climate extremes and climate changes. Recent studies on past decades have identified and analysed the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop yields in the Euro-Mediterranean region. As these effects could be amplified in a changing climate context, it is essential to analyse available climate projections and investigate the possible impacts on European agriculture in terms of crop yield. In this study, five model runs from the Euro-CORDEX initiative under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used. Climate model data have been bias corrected and then used to feed a mechanistic crop growth model. The crop model has been run under different settings to better sample the intrinsic uncertainties. Among the main results, it is worth to report a weak but significant and spatially homogeneous increase in potential wheat yield at mid-century (under a CO2 fertilisation effect scenario). While more complex changes seem to characterise potential maize yield, with large areas in the region showing a weak-to-moderate decrease.

Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Lin, Wei; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2014-01-01

Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.

Climate change adaptation in Tanjung Mas – Semarang: a comparison between male- and female-headed households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handayani, W.; Ananda, M. R.; Esariti, L.; Anggraeni, M.

2018-03-01

Mainly due to its complexity, the effort to mainstream gender in addressing climate change issues has been far from the satisfying result. However, there is an urgent call to accommodate gender lens issues and to become more gender sensitive in an attempt to have an effective intervention in responding climate change impact. To enrich the reports on gender and climate change adaptation in city-based case, this paper aims to elaborate climate change adaptation in Tanjung Mas – Semarang city focusing on the gender perspective analysis in male- and female-headed households. The quantitative descriptive method is applied to carry out the analyses, including adaptive strategy and gender role analyses. The research result indicates there are not any significant differences in the climate change adaptation strategies applied in male- and female-headed households. This shows that women in the female-headed households, with their double burden, performed well in managing their roles. Therefore, in particular perspective, it may not be relevant to state that woman and female-headed households are likely to be more vulnerable compared with their counterparts.

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

2012-09-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

Envisioning the future of wildlife in a changing climate: Collaborative learning for adaptation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeDee, Olivia E.; Karasov, W.H.; Martin, Karl J.; Meyer, Michael W.; Ribic, Christine; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

2011-01-01

Natural resource managers are tasked with assessing the impacts of climate change on conservation targets and developing adaptation strategies to meet agency goals. The complex, transboundary nature of climate change demands the collaboration of scientists, managers, and stakeholders in this effort. To share, integrate, and apply knowledge from these diverse perspectives, we must engage in social learning. In 2009, we initiated a process to engage university researchers and agency scientists and managers in collaborative learning to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial fauna in the state of Wisconsin, USA. We constructed conceptual Bayesian networks to depict the influence of climate change, key biotic and abiotic factors, and existing stressors on the distribution and abundance of 3 species: greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), and Karner blue butterfly (Plebejus melissa samuelis). For each species, we completed a 2-stage expert review that elicited dialogue on information gaps, management opportunities, and research priorities. From our experience, collaborative network modeling proved to be a powerful tool to develop a common vision of the potential impacts of climate change on conservation targets.

Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change

Treesearch

M.Torre Jorgenson; Vladimir Romanovsky; Jennifer Harden; Yuri Shur; Jonathan O' Donnell; Edward A.G. Schuur; Mikhail Kanevskiy; Sergei. Marchenko

2010-01-01

The resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change depends on complex interactions among topography, water, soil, vegetation, and snow, which allow permafrost to persist at mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) as high as +2 °C and degrade at MAATs as low as -20°C. To assess these interactions, we compiled existing data and tested effects of varying...

Can Teacher Collaboration Overcome Barriers to Interdisciplinary Learning in a Disciplinary University? A Case Study Using Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pharo, E. J.; Davison, A.; Warr, K.; Nursey-Bray, M.; Beswick, K.; Wapstra, E.; Jones, C.

2012-01-01

A teacher network was formed at an Australian university in order to better promote interdisciplinary student learning on the complex social-environmental problem of climate change. Rather than leaving it to students to piece together disciplinary responses, eight teaching academics collaborated on the task of exposing students to different types…

CLIMCONG: A framework-tool for assessing CLIMate CONGruency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buras, Allan; Kölling, Christian; Menzel, Annette

2016-04-01

It is widely accepted that the anticipated elevational and latitudinal shifting of climate forces living organisms (including humans) to track these changes in space over a certain time. Due to the complexity of climate change, prediction of consequent migrations is a difficult procedure afflicted with many uncertainties. To simplify climate complexity and ease respective attempts, various approaches aimed at classifying global climates. For instance, the frequently used Köppen-Geiger climate classification (Köppen, 1900) has been applied to predict the shift of climate zones throughout the 21st century (Rubel and Kottek, 2010). Another - more objective but also more complex - classification approach has recently been presented by Metzger et al. (2013). Though being comprehensive, classifications have certain drawbacks, as I) often focusing on few variables, II) having discrete borders at the margins of classes, and III) subjective selection of an arbitrary number of classes. Ecological theory suggests that when only considering temperature and precipitation (such as Köppen, 1900) particular climate features - e.g. radiation and plant water availability - may not be represented with sufficient precision. Furthermore, sharp boundaries among homogeneous classes do not reflect natural gradients. To overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, we here present CLIMCONG - a framework-tool for assessing climate congruency for quantitatively describing climate similarity through continua in space and time. CLIMCONG allows users to individually select variables for calculation of climate congruency. By this, particular foci can be specified, depending on actual research questions posed towards climate change. For instance, while ecologists focus on a multitude of parameters driving net ecosystem productivity, water managers may only be interested in variables related to drought extremes and water availability. Based on the chosen parameters CLIMCONG determines congruency of climates using Manhattan distances among locations. First applications of CLIMCONG were to I) globally cluster congruent eco-climates resulting in a classification being more objective than Köppen (1900) but at comparable complexity, II) successfully model MODIS average annual net primary productivity globally (R² = 0.69), and III) identify recent climates (with foci varying from eco-climates over water availability to extreme events) most similar to the predicted (RCP-scenarios) climate of given locations worldwide without being restricted to classifications. Using CLIMCONG it thereby becomes possible to track the 'migration' of local climate conditions throughout the 20th and 21st century. Further applications are planned and a CLIMCONG 'R'-package is under preparation. Köppen, W., 1900: Versuch einer Klassifikation der Klimate, vorzugsweise nach ihren Beziehungen zur Pflanzenwelt. - Geogr. Zeitschr. 6, 593-611, 657-679. Metzger, M.J., Bunce, R.G.H., Jongman, R.H.G, Sayre, R., Trabucco, A., and Zomer, R., 2013: A high-resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research and monitoring. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22, 630-638. Rubel, F., and Kottek, M., 2010: Observed and projected climate shifts 1901-2100 depicted by world maps of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 19, 135-141.

Disease Risk in a Dynamic Environment: The Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Minnesota, USA

PubMed Central

Robinson, Stacie J.; Neitzel, David F.; Moen, Ronald A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Hamilton, Karin E.; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Mulla, David J.; Munderloh, Ulrike G.; Redig, Patrick T.; Smith, Kirk E.; Turner, Clarence L.; Umber, Jamie K.; Pelican, Katharine M.

2015-01-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease. PMID:25281302

Disease risk in a dynamic environment: the spread of tick-borne pathogens in Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Robinson, Stacie J; Neitzel, David F; Moen, Ronald A; Craft, Meggan E; Hamilton, Karin E; Johnson, Lucinda B; Mulla, David J; Munderloh, Ulrike G; Redig, Patrick T; Smith, Kirk E; Turner, Clarence L; Umber, Jamie K; Pelican, Katharine M

2015-03-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease.

SEEPLUS: A SIMPLE ONLINE CLIMATE MODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsui, Junichi

A web application for a simple climate model - SEEPLUS (a Simple climate model to Examine Emission Pathways Leading to Updated Scenarios) - has been developed. SEEPLUS consists of carbon-cycle and climate-change modules, through which it provides the information infrastructure required to perform climate-change experiments, even on a millennial-timescale. The main objective of this application is to share the latest scientific knowledge acquired from climate modeling studies among the different stakeholders involved in climate-change issues. Both the carbon-cycle and climate-change modules employ impulse response functions (IRFs) for their key processes, thereby enabling the model to integrate the outcome from an ensemble of complex climate models. The current IRF parameters and forcing manipulation are basically consistent with, or within an uncertainty range of, the understanding of certain key aspects such as the equivalent climate sensitivity and ocean CO2 uptake data documented in representative literature. The carbon-cycle module enables inverse calculation to determine the emission pathway required in order to attain a given concentration pathway, thereby providing a flexible way to compare the module with more advanced modeling studies. The module also enables analytical evaluation of its equilibrium states, thereby facilitating the long-term planning of global warming mitigation.

Interacting effects of multiple stresses on growth and physiological processes in northern forest trees

Treesearch

Judson G. Isebrands; Richard E. Dickson; Joanne Rebbeck; David F. Karnosky

2000-01-01

Global climate chagnge is a complex and controversial subject, both technically and politically. Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" and that "further accumulation of greenhouse gases will commit the earth...

A Systems Approach to Climate, Water and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharward, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellor, J. E.; Zimmerman, J.

2014-12-01

Although evidence suggests that climate change will negatively impact water resources and hence diarrheal disease rates in the developing world, there is uncertainty surrounding prior studies. This is due to the complexity of the pathways by which climate impacts diarrhea rates making it difficult to develop interventions. Therefore, our goal was to develop a mechanistic systems approach that incorporates the complex climate, human, engineered and water systems to relate climate change to diarrhea rates under future climate scenarios.To do this, we developed an agent-based model (ABM). Our agents are households and children living in Hubli-Dharward, India. The model was informed with 15 months of weather, water quality, ethnographic and diarrhea incidence data. The model's front end is a stochastic weather simulator incorporating 15 global climate models to simulate rainfall and temperature. The water quality available to agents (residents) on a model "day" is a function of the simulated day's weather and is fully validated with field data. As with the field data, as the ambient temperature increases or it rains, the quality of water available to residents in the model deteriorates. The propensity for an resident to get diarrhea is calculated with an integrated Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment model with uncertainty simulated with a bootstrap method. Other factors include hand-washing, improved water sources, household water treatment and improved sanitation.The benefits of our approach are as follows: Our mechanistic method allows us to develop scientifically derived adaptation strategies. We can quantitatively link climate scenarios with diarrhea incidence over long time periods. We can explore the complex climate and water system dynamics, rank risk factor importance, examine a broad range of scenarios and identify tipping points. Our approach is modular and expandable such that new datasets can be integrated to study climate impacts on a larger scale. Our results indicate that climate change will have a serious effect on diarrhea incidence in the region. However, adaptation strategies including more reliable water supplies and household water treatment can mitigate these impacts.

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes, migratory distance, and arrival distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macmynowski, Dena P.; Root, Terry L.

2007-05-01

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979 2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.

Serious-game for water resources management adaptation training to climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroy, Eve; Saulnier, Georges-Marie

2013-04-01

Water resources access is a main issue for territorial development to ensure environmental and human well-being. Indeed, sustainable development is vulnerable to water availability and climate change may affect the quantity and temporality of available water resources for anthropogenic water uses. How then to adapt, how to change water management rules and practices and how to involve stakeholders is such process? To prevent water scarcity situations, which may generate conflicts and impacts on ecosystems, it is important to think about a sustainable development where anthropogenic water uses are in good balance with forecasted water resources availability. This implies to raise awareness and involve stakeholders for a sustainable water management. Stakeholders have to think about future territorial development taking into account climate change impacts on water resources. Collaboration between scientists and stakeholders is essential to insure consistent climate change knowledge, well identification of anthropogenic uses, tensions and stakes of the territory. However sharing information on complex questions such as climate change, hydro-meteorological modeling and practical constraints may be a difficult task. Therefore to contribute to an easier debate and to the global training of all the interested actors, a serious game about water management was built. The serious game uses scientist complex models with real data but via a simple and playful web-game interface. The advantage of this interface is that it may help stakeholders, citizen or the target group to raise their understandings of impacts of climate change on water resources and to raise their awareness to the need for a sustainable water management while using state-of-the-art knowledge. The principle of the game is simple. The gamer is a mayor of a city and has to manage the water withdrawals from hydro systems, water distribution and consumption, water retreatment etc. In the same time, a clock is running and climate change occurs on the territory which impacts the water resources. The gamer has to deal with this evolution and try to help its municipality in growing. If the water management plays well the city can develop. At the opposite, wrong player decisions may generate water, energy or food scarcities, which lead the city to decrease. A first version of this game still under development was built. It makes uses of data from a famous French ski resort: Megève municipality. A demo of this game will be presented. Under a playful approach the serious game helps to discuss essential but strained topics between stakeholders, scientists and citizens. It may be considered as a useful tool for decision support and explanation of a complex topic. It is also hoped that this approach offers new ways of collaboration with stakeholders to approach complex situations in order to find the best paths for future water management.

The Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendry, K. R.; Reis, J.; Hall, I. R.

2011-12-01

In response to the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of climate change research, the Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W) was formed in 2009 by the Welsh universities of Aberystwyth, Bangor, Cardiff and Swansea. Initially funded by Welsh Government, through the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales, the Countryside Council for Wales and the universities, C3W aims to bring together climate change researchers from a wide range of disciplines to explore scientific and sociological drivers, impacts and implications at local, national and international scale. The specific aims are to i) improve our fundamental understanding of the causes, nature, timing and consequences of climate change on Planet Earth's environment and on humanity, and ii) to reconfigure climate research in Wales as a recognisable centre of excellence on the world stage. In addition to improving the infrastructure for climate change research, we aim to improve communication, networking, collaborative research, and multidisciplinary data assimilation within and between the Welsh universities, and other UK and international institutions. Furthermore, C3W aims to apply its research by actively contributing towards national policy development, business development and formal and informal education activities within and beyond Wales.

Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

PubMed

Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

2016-04-01

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Climate change and the EU Water Framework Directive: how to deal with indirect effects of changes in hydrology on water quality and ecology?

PubMed

Heerdt, G N J Ter; Schep, S A; Janse, J H; Ouboter, M

2007-01-01

In order to set ecological goals and determine measures for the European Water Framework Directive, the effects of climate change on lake ecosystems should be estimated. It is thought that the complexity of lake ecosystems makes this effect inherently unpredictable. However, models that deal with this complexity are available and well calibrated and tested. In this study we use the ecosystem model PCLake to demonstrate how climate change might affect the ecological status of a shallow peaty lake in 2050. With the model PCLake, combined with a long-term water and nutrient balance, it is possible to describe adequately the present status of the lake. Simulations of future scenarios with increasing precipitation, evaporation and temperature, showed that climate change will lead to higher nutrient loadings. At the same time, it will lead to lower critical loadings. Together this might cause the lake to shift easier from a clear water to a turbid state. The amount of algae, expressed as the concentration Chl-a, will increase, as a consequence turbidity will increase. The outcome of this study; increasing stability of the turbid state of the lake, and thus the need for more drastic measures, is consistent with some earlier studies.

A new paradigm for predicting zonal-mean climate and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Roe, G.; Donohoe, A.; Siler, N.; Markle, B. R.; Liu, X.; Feldl, N.; Battisti, D. S.; Frierson, D. M.

2016-12-01

How will the pole-to-equator temperature gradient, or large-scale patterns of precipitation, change under global warming? Answering such questions typically involves numerical simulations with comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs) that represent the complexities of climate forcing, radiative feedbacks, and atmosphere and ocean dynamics. Yet, our understanding of these predictions hinges on our ability to explain them through the lens of simple models and physical theories. Here we present evidence that zonal-mean climate, and its changes, can be understood in terms of a moist energy balance model that represents atmospheric heat transport as a simple diffusion of latent and sensible heat (as a down-gradient transport of moist static energy, with a diffusivity coefficient that is nearly constant with latitude). We show that the theoretical underpinnings of this model derive from the principle of maximum entropy production; that its predictions are empirically supported by atmospheric reanalyses; and that it successfully predicts the behavior of a hierarchy of climate models - from a gray radiation aquaplanet moist GCM, to comprehensive GCMs participating in CMIP5. As an example of the power of this paradigm, we show that, given only patterns of local radiative feedbacks and climate forcing, the moist energy balance model accurately predicts the evolution of zonal-mean temperature and atmospheric heat transport as simulated by the CMIP5 ensemble. These results suggest that, despite all of its dynamical complexity, the atmosphere essentially responds to energy imbalances by simply diffusing latent and sensible heat down-gradient; this principle appears to explain zonal-mean climate and its changes under global warming.

Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change.

PubMed

Williams, Caroline M; Henry, Hugh A L; Sinclair, Brent J

2015-02-01

Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Integrating Scientific Content with Context to Connect Educators with the Complexities and Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Gosselin, D. C.; Oglesby, R. J.; Larson-Miller, C.; Thomas, J.; Mawalagedara, R.

2011-12-01

Over the past three years the Nebraska Earth Systems Education Network has designed professional development opportunities for K-12 and extension educators that integrates scientific content into the context of helping educators connect society with the complexities and consequences of climate change. Our professional development approach uses learner-, knowledge-, assessment-, and community-centered strategies to achieve our long-term goal: collaboration of scientists, educators and learners to foster civic literacy about climate change. Two NASA-funded projects, Global Climate Change Literacy for Educators (GCCE, 2009-2012), and the Educators Climatologists Learning Community (ECLC, 2011-2013), have provided the mechanism to provide teachers with scientifically sound and pedagogically relevant educational materials to improve climate and Earth systems literacy among educators. The primary product of the GCCE program is a 16-week, online, distance-delivered, asynchronous course entitled, Laboratory Earth: Human Dimensions of Climate Change. This course consists of four, four-week modules that integrate climate literacy, Earth Systems concepts, and pedagogy focused on active learning processes, building community, action research, and students' sense of place to promote action at the local level to address the challenges of climate change. Overall, the Community of Inquiry Survey (COI) indicated the course was effective in teaching content, developing a community of learners, and engaging students in experiences designed to develop content knowledge. A pre- and post- course Wilcoxan Signed Ranks Test indicated there was a statistically significant increase in participant's beliefs about their personal science teaching efficacy. Qualitative data from concept maps and content mastery assignments support a positive impact on teachers' content knowledge and classroom practice. Service Learning units seemed tohelp teachers connect course learning to their classroom teaching. In addition, qualitative data indicate that teachers' students found service learning to be highly motivational components to learning. The ECLC project, to be initiated in the fall 2011, will build on our GCCE experiences to create a sustainable virtual learning community of educators and scientists. Climate-change issues will serve as a context in which collaborative scientist-educator-teams will develop discrete, locally oriented research projects to facilitate development of confident, knowledgeable citizen-scientists within their classrooms.

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mountain landscapes offer few opportunities for high-elevation tree species migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.

2014-01-01

Climate change is anticipated to alter plant species distributions. Regional context, notably the spatial complexity of climatic gradients, may influence species migration potential. While high-elevation species may benefit from steep climate gradients in mountain regions, their persistence may be threatened by limited suitable habitat as land area decreases with elevation. To untangle these apparently contradictory predictions for mountainous regions, we evaluated the climatic suitability of four coniferous forest tree species of the western United States based on species distribution modeling (SDM) and examined changes in climatically suitable areas under predicted climate change. We used forest structural information relating to tree species dominance, productivity, and demography from an extensive forest inventory system to assess the strength of inferences made with a SDM approach. We found that tree species dominance, productivity, and recruitment were highest where climatic suitability (i.e., probability of species occurrence under certain climate conditions) was high, supporting the use of predicted climatic suitability in examining species risk to climate change. By predicting changes in climatic suitability over the next century, we found that climatic suitability will likely decline, both in areas currently occupied by each tree species and in nearby unoccupied areas to which species might migrate in the future. These trends were most dramatic for high elevation species. Climatic changes predicted over the next century will dramatically reduce climatically suitable areas for high-elevation tree species while a lower elevation species, Pinus ponderosa, will be well positioned to shift upslope across the region. Reductions in suitable area for high-elevation species imply that even unlimited migration would be insufficient to offset predicted habitat loss, underscoring the vulnerability of these high-elevation species to climatic changes.

Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.

Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: potential and limitations.

PubMed

De Meester, Luc; Stoks, Robby; Brans, Kristien I

2017-11-23

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota, resulting in range shifts, novel interactions, food web alterations, changed intensities of host-parasite interactions, and extinctions. An increasing number of studies documented evolutionary changes in, amongst others, phenology and thermal tolerance. In this opinion paper, we argue that, while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts, a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction. First, there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects, and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations. Secondly, there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation, such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other (human-induced) environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to trade-offs. Third, the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional (cf. dispersal and range shift) responses. These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations. We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations, but does not guarantee their survival. It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent. Yet, considering evolution is crucial, as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local, metacommunity, and regional scales. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2014-03-01

There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

Climate Informatics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Alexander, Francis J.; Niculescu-Mizil, Alexandru; Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Tippett, Michael; Banerjee, Arindam; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Smerdon, Jason E.;

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

2016-01-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

How much should we know about energy to better implement climate change education?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva-Send, N.; Anders, S.

2011-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change requires us to understand complex and multidisciplinary aspects of climate science. But without also grasping the connection between our lifestyles, behavior, and energy use, it will be difficult for many of us to make changes to contribute to climate change mitigation and energy conservation. A deeper understanding of the energy-climate relationship related to our behavior is thus warranted because, as the internet-based EnergyLiteracy.org points out, albeit within a different but related context of national security and development, "The vast majority of Americans simply don't adequately understand the magnitude and urgency of our national energy crisis ..." and "That lack of understanding deprives our democracy of the political will that must be generated in order to adequately address...." these issues. Our NSF Climate Change Education Program Project, the San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership (SDRCEP), has as its overarching aim to inform citizens to make balanced decisions based on climate change and energy literacy. The project targets a selected group of 30 key influential persons in the region, and their audiences, representing, for example, the banking sector, the construction industry, the health sector, and commercial real estate. Interviews carried out so far suggest that the connection between climate change and energy use is not easily made. On the other hand, the interviews indicate that a connection is easily made, in this region, between climate change and water availability. Therefore, the purpose of this presentation is to discuss what specific knowledge about personal and societal energy use might be useful to (a) inform and empower key decision-makers responsible for energy-use decisions that significantly affect our lives in the next decades, and (b) empower people to contribute to reducing the impacts of climate change through behavioral or even life-style changes.

A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2017-04-01

Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

Creating Impact Functions to Estimate the Domestic Effects of Global Climate Action

EPA Science Inventory

Quantifying and monetizing the impacts of climate change can be challenging due to the complexity of impacts, availability of data, variability across geographic and temporal time scales, sources of uncertainty, and computational constraints. Recent advancements in using consist...

Water Resources and Supply Adaptation: A paradigm Shifting for Future Climate?

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change adds another layer of complexity in planning, engineering and management of water resources and urban water infrastructures. Yet our current practice is confined to the traditional approach that evaluates developmental scenarios and their sustainability mostly by a...

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

PubMed Central

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H.; Moore, Kara A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2016-01-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species’ range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ response to climate change but also emphasise several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. PMID:26872305

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

PubMed

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2016-08-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of ocean acidification and oxygen to the uncertainty in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Wang, Shuangjing; Zheng, Meidi; Zhang, Han

2014-05-01

Due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated climate change, the global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. Among these, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would also affect the projection of oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To investigate this issue, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform a set of simulations, including that which involves no radiative effect of atmospheric CO2 and those which involve CO2-induced climate change with climate sensitivity varying from 0.5 °C to 4.5 °C. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is prescribed to follow RCP 8.5 pathway and its extensions. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. It is found that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

2017-12-01

Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for sustained assessments that integrate and reflect the social science understanding of the complex relationships between social and natural worlds in a changing climate, and factors that impact effective mitigation and adaptation strategies that address risks and vulnerabilities of climate change.

Sensitivity of Regulated Flow Regimes to Climate Change in the Western United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tian; Voisin, Nathalie; Leng, Guoyong

Water management activities or flow regulations modify water fluxes at the land surface and affect water resources in space and time. We hypothesize that flow regulations change the sensitivity of river flow to climate change with respect to unmanaged water resources. Quantifying these changes in sensitivity could help elucidate the impacts of water management at different spatiotemporal scales and inform climate adaptation decisions. In this study, we compared the emergence of significant changes in natural and regulated river flow regimes across the Western United States from simulations driven by multiple climate models and scenarios. We find that significant climate change-inducedmore » alterations in natural flow do not cascade linearly through water management activities. At the annual time scale, 50% of the Hydrologic Unit Code 4 (HUC4) sub-basins over the Western U.S. regions tend to have regulated flow regime more sensitive to the climate change than natural flow regime. Seasonality analyses show that the sensitivity varies remarkably across the seasons. We also find that the sensitivity is related to the level of water management. For 35% of the HUC4 sub-basins with the highest level of water management, the summer and winter flows tend to show a heightened sensitivity to climate change due to the complexity of joint reservoir operations. We further demonstrate that the impacts of considering water management in models are comparable to those that arises from uncertainties across climate models and emission scenarios. This prompts further climate adaptation studies research about nonlinearity effects of climate change through water management activities.« less

Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

PubMed

Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

2013-11-30

Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The lesser known challenge of climate change: thermal variance and sex-reversal in vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.

PubMed

Neuwald, Jennifer L; Valenzuela, Nicole

2011-03-23

Climate change is expected to disrupt biological systems. Particularly susceptible are species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), as in many reptiles. While the potentially devastating effect of rising mean temperatures on sex ratios in TSD species is appreciated, the consequences of increased thermal variance predicted to accompany climate change remain obscure. Surprisingly, no study has tested if the effect of thermal variance around high-temperatures (which are particularly relevant given climate change predictions) has the same or opposite effects as around lower temperatures. Here we show that sex ratios of the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) were reversed as fluctuations increased around low and high unisexual mean-temperatures. Unexpectedly, the developmental and sexual responses around female-producing temperatures were decoupled in a more complex manner than around male-producing values. Our novel observations are not fully explained by existing ecological models of development and sex determination, and provide strong evidence that thermal fluctuations are critical for shaping the biological outcomes of climate change.

Culture, climate change and farm-level groundwater management: An Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, Matthew R.; Curtis, Allen L.

2016-05-01

Cultural factors - values, beliefs, and norms - provide important insights into the environmental attitudes, risk perceptions, and behaviors of the general population. Little is known, however, about the ostensibly complex relationships linking those elements of culture to climate change risk perceptions, especially in the context of farm level decision in the ground water context. This paper addresses that gap through an analysis of survey data provided by irrigators in the Namoi catchment of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. We use Values-Beliefs-Norms theory to construct multivariate models of the relationship between ground water irrigators' interpretations of climate change risks and their implementation of adaptive water conservation practices. Results indicate that these cultural factors are important explanations of irrigators' climate change risk perceptions, and these risk perceptions are related to adaptive ground water management strategies at the farm level. The implications of the findings are discussed for research on the culture-environment nexus and for outreach designed to encourage agricultural adaptations to climate change.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

PubMed Central

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J.A.; Read, Jordan S; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes. PMID:28440790

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-04-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

Climate Change and Everyday Life: Repertoires Children Use to Negotiate a Socio-Scientific Issue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrne, Jenny; Ideland, Malin; Malmberg, Claes; Grace, Marcus

2014-01-01

There are only a few studies about how primary school students engage in socio-scientific discussions. This study aims to add to this field of research by focusing on how 9-10-year-olds in Sweden and England handle climate change as a complex environmental socio-scientific issue (SSI), within the context of their own lives and in relation to…

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C-D-C model) to appraise the grain yield change caused by the climatic change. Also the preliminary test on this model has been done. In selection of the appraisal methods, we take the C-D production function model, which has been proved more mature in the economic research, as our fundamental model. Then, we introduce climate index (arid index) to the C-D model to develop one new model. This new model utilizes the climatic change factor in the economical model to appraise how the climatic change influence the grain yield change. The new way of appraise should have the better application prospect. The economy - climate model (The C-D-C model) has been applied on the eight Chinese regions that we divide; it has been proved satisfactory in its feasibility, rationality and the application prospect. So we can provide the theoretical fundamentals for policy-making under the more complex and uncertain climate change. Therefore, we open a new possible channel for the global climate change research moving toward the actual social, economic life.

Using Deep Learning to Assess Future Flood Magnitude and Frequency in the Semi-arid and Snowmelt-dominated Missouri River Headwater Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, B.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

There has been growing interest for hydrologists and water resources managers about the emergence of non-stationarities associated with the hydro-meteorological processes driving floods. Among the potential causes of non-stationarity, climate change is deemed a major one. Understanding the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes of the Missouri River is challenging. In this region, floods are mainly triggered by snow melting, either when temperatures get mild in spring/summer, or when rain falls over snow in early spring and fall. The sparsely gauged and topographically complex area degrades the value of hydrological modeling that otherwise might foreshadow the evolution of hydro-meteorological interactions between precipitation, temperature and snow. In this work, we explore the utility of Deep Learning (DL) for assessing flood magnitude change under climate change. By using multiple hidden layers within artificial neural networks (ANNs), DL allows modeling complex interactions between inputs (i.e. precipitation, temperature and snow water equivalent) and outputs (i.e. water discharge). The objective is to develop a parsimonious model of the flood processes that maintain the contribution of nonstationary factors and their potential evolution under climate change, while reducing extraneous factors not central to flood generation. By comparing ANN's performance with outputs from two hydrological models of differing complexity (i.e. VIC, SAC-SMA), we evaluate the modeling capability of ANNs for three snow-dominated catchments that represent different flood regimes (Yellowstone River at Billings (MT; USGS 06214500), Powder River near Locate (MT; USGS 06326500) and James River near Scotland (SD; USGS 06478500)). Nonstationary inputs for each flood process model are derived from dynamically downscaled climate projections (from the NARCCAP experiment) to project floods in the three selected catchments. The uncertainty of future snow projections as well as its impact on spring flooding are explored. Future flood frequency obtained with ANNs is compared with the one obtained thanks to hydrological models and with the traditional approach as described in Bulletin 17C. Keywords: Flood, Climate-change, Snow, Neural Networks

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian;

Communities of practice in support of collaborative multi-disciplinary learning and action in response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimlich, J. E.; Stylinski, C.; Palmquist, S.; Wasserman, D.

2017-12-01

Collaborative efforts reaching across interdisciplinary boundaries to address controversial issues such as climate change present significant complexities, including developing shared language, agreeing on common outcomes, and even establishing habits of regular dialogue. Such collaborative efforts should include museums, aquariums, zoos, parks, and youth groups as each of these informal education institutions provides a critical avenue for supporting learning about and responding to climate change. The community of practice framework offers a potential effective approach to support learning and action of diverse groups with a shared interest. Our study applied this framework to the NSF-funded Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Assessment and Education (MADE-CLEAR) project, facilitating informal educators across these two states to advance their climate change education practices, and could provide insight for a building a citywide multi-sector collaborative effort. We found strategies that center on the process of group evolution; support different perspectives, levels of participation, and community spaces; focus on value as defined by members; and balance familiarity and fun produced a dynamic and functional community with a shared practice where none had existed before. Also important was expanding the community-of-practice focus on relationship building to include structured professional development and spin-off opportunities for small-group team-based endeavors. Our findings suggest that this collaborative professional learning approach is well suited to diverse groups seeking creative solutions to complex and even divisive challenges.

Co-producing resilient solutions to climate change: Bridging the gap between science and decision-making around nexus issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howarth, C.

2016-12-01

The nexus represents a multi-dimensional means of scientific enquiry encapsulating the complex and non-linear interactions between water, energy, food, environment with the climate, and wider implications for society. These resources are fundamental for human life but are negatively affected by climate change. Methods of analysis, which are currently used, were not built to represent complex systems and are insufficiently equipped to understand positive and negative externalities generated by interactions among different stakeholders involved in the nexus. In addition misalignment between the science that scientists produce and the evidence decision-makers need leads to a range of complexities within the science-policy interface. Adopting a bottom-up, participative approach, the results of five themed workshops organized in the UK (focusing on: shocks and hazards, infrastructure, local economy, governance and governments, finance and insurance) featuring 80 stakeholders from academia, government and industry allow us to map perceptions of opportunities and challenges of better informing decision making on climate change when there is a strong disconnect between the evidence scientists provide and the actions decision makers take. The research identified key areas where gaps could be bridged between science and action and explores how a knowledge co-production approach can help identify opportunities for building a more effective and legitimate policy agenda to face climate risks. Concerns, barriers and opportunities to better inform decision making centred on four themes: communication and collaboration, decision making processes, social and cultural dimensions, and the nature of responses to nexus shocks. In so doing, this analysis provides an assessment of good practice on climate decision-making and highlights opportunities for improvement to bridge gaps in the science-policy interface

Climate regulation services by urban lakes in Bucharest city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioja, Cristian; Cheval, Sorin; Vanau, Gabriel; Sandric, Ionut; Onose, Diana; Carstea, Elfrida

2017-04-01

Urban ecosystems services assessment is an important challenge for practitioners, due to the high complexity of relations between urban systems components, high vulnerability to climate change, and consequences in social-economical systems. Urban lakes represent a significant component in more European cities (average 5% of total surface). Adequate urban management supports diverse benefits of urban lakes: clean water availability, mediation of waste, toxics and other nuisance, air quality and climate regulation, support for physical, intelectual or spiritual interactions. Due to underestimation of climate change and misfit urban planning decision, these benefits may be lost or chaged into diservices. The aim of the paper is to assess the changes in terms of the urban lakes contribution role to regulate urban climate, using the Bucharest as case study. Using sensors and Modis, Sentinel and Landsat images, the paper experiments the evolution of climate regulation services of urban lakes under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change between 2008 and 2015. Urban lakes management has to include specific measures in order to help the cities to become more sustainable, resilient, liveable and healthly.

Health Consequence Scales for Use in Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery

2014-01-01

While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comparing health effects associated with climate change and applied within a HIA framework. This assists in setting priorities for adaptation plans to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. The scales presented in this paper were initially developed for a HIA of climate change in Perth in 2050, but they can be applied across spatial and temporal scales. The design is based on a health effects pyramid with health measures expressed in orders of magnitude and linked to baseline population and health data. The health consequence measures are combined with a measure of likelihood to determine the level of risk associated with each health potential health impact. In addition, a simple visual framework that can be used to collate, compare and communicate the level of health risks associated with climate change has been developed. PMID:25229697

Complex challenges of maintaining whitebark pine in Greater Yellowstone under climate change: A call for innovative research, management, and policy approaches

Treesearch

Andrew Hansen; Kathryn Ireland; Kristin Legg; Robert Keane; Edward Barge; Martha Jenkins; Michiel Pillet

2016-01-01

Climate suitability is projected to decline for many subalpine species, raising questions about managing species under a deteriorating climate. Whitebark pine (WBP) (Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) crystalizes the challenges that natural resource managers of many high mountain ecosystems will likely face in the coming decades. We...

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Murray, Michael W.; Kao, Yu-Chun; Feiner, Zachary S.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Höök, Tomas O.; Ludsin, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.

Structural complexity and land-surface energy exchange along a gradient from arctic tundra to boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, C.; Beringer, J.; Chapin, F. S.; McGuire, A.D.

2004-01-01

Question: Current climate changes in the Alaskan Arctic, which are characterized by increases in temperature and length of growing season, could alter vegetation structure, especially through increases in shrub cover or the movement of treeline. These changes in vegetation structure have consequences for the climate system. What is the relationship between structural complexity and partitioning of surface energy along a gradient from tundra through shrub tundra to closed canopy forest? Location: Arctic tundra-boreal forest transition in the Alaskan Arctic. Methods: Along this gradient of increasing canopy complexity, we measured key vegetation characteristics, including community composition, biomass, cover, height, leaf area index and stem area index. We relate these vegetation characteristics to albedo and the partitioning of net radiation into ground, latent, and sensible heating fluxes. Results: Canopy complexity increased along the sequence from tundra to forest due to the addition of new plant functional types. This led to non-linear changes in biomass, cover, and height in the understory. The increased canopy complexity resulted in reduced ground heat fluxes, relatively conserved latent heat fluxes and increased sensible heat fluxes. The localized warming associated with increased sensible heating over more complex canopies may amplify regional warming, causing further vegetation change in the Alaskan Arctic.

A conceptual framework for addressing complexity and unfolding transition dynamics when developing sustainable adaptation strategies in urban water management.

PubMed

Fratini, C F; Elle, M; Jensen, M B; Mikkelsen, P S

2012-01-01

To achieve a successful and sustainable adaptation to climate change we need to transform the way we think about change. Much water management research has focused on technical innovation with a range of new solutions developed to achieve a 'more sustainable and integrated urban water management cycle'. But Danish municipalities and utility companies are struggling to bring such solutions into practice. 'Green infrastructure', for example, requires the consideration of a larger range of aspects related to the urban context than the traditional urban water system optimization. There is the need for standardized methods and guidelines to organize transdisciplinary processes where different types of knowledge and perspectives are taken into account. On the basis of the macro-meso-micro pattern inspired by complexity science and transition theory, we developed a conceptual framework to organize processes addressing the complexity characterizing urban water management in the context of climate change. In this paper the framework is used to organize a research process aiming at understanding and unfolding urban dynamics for sustainable transition. The final goal is to enable local authorities and utilities to create the basis for managing and catalysing the technical and organizational innovation necessary for a sustainable transition towards climate change adaptation in urban areas.

Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

PubMed

Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

2016-10-01

Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

Topography alters tree growth–climate relationships in a semi-arid forested catchment

DOE PAGES

Adams, Hallie R.; Barnard, Holly R.; Loomis, Alexander K.

2014-11-26

Topography and climate play an integral role in the spatial variability and annual dynamics of aboveground carbon sequestration. Despite knowledge of vegetation–climate–topography relationships on the landscape and hillslope scales, little is known about the influence of complex terrain coupled with hydrologic and topoclimatic variation on tree growth and physiology at the catchment scale. Climate change predictions for the semi-arid, western United States include increased temperatures, more frequent and extreme drought events, and decreases in snowpack, all of which put forests at risk of drought induced mortality and enhanced susceptibility to disturbance events. In this study, we determine how species-specific treemore » growth patterns and water use efficiency respond to interannual climate variability and how this response varies with topographic position. We found that Pinus contorta and Pinus ponderosa both show significant decreases in growth with water-limiting climate conditions, but complex terrain mediates this response by controlling moisture conditions in variable topoclimates. Foliar carbon isotope analyses show increased water use efficiency during drought for Pinus contorta, but indicate no significant difference in water use efficiency of Pinus ponderosa between a drought year and a non-drought year. The responses of the two pine species to climate indicate that semi-arid forests are especially susceptible to changes and risks posed by climate change and that topographic variability will likely play a significant role in determining the future vegetation patterns of semi-arid systems.« less

Sr/Ca and δ18O records of a coral from Sanya: reconstructions of temperature and precipitation in the northern South China Sea in the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2016-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

Does Dynamical Downscaling Introduce Novel Information in Climate Model Simulations of Recipitation Change over a Complex Topography Region?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tselioudis, George; Douvis, Costas; Zerefos, Christos

2012-01-01

Current climate and future climate-warming runs with the RegCM Regional Climate Model (RCM) at 50 and 11 km-resolutions forced by the ECHAM GCM are used to examine whether the increased resolution of the RCM introduces novel information in the precipitation field when the models are run for the mountainous region of the Hellenic peninsula. The model results are inter-compared with the resolution of the RCM output degraded to match that of the GCM, and it is found that in both the present and future climate runs the regional models produce more precipitation than the forcing GCM. At the same time, the RCM runs produce increases in precipitation with climate warming even though they are forced with a GCM that shows no precipitation change in the region. The additional precipitation is mostly concentrated over the mountain ranges, where orographic precipitation formation is expected to be a dominant mechanism. It is found that, when examined at the same resolution, the elevation heights of the GCM are lower than those of the averaged RCM in the areas of the main mountain ranges. It is also found that the majority of the difference in precipitation between the RCM and the GCM can be explained by their difference in topographic height. The study results indicate that, in complex topography regions, GCM predictions of precipitation change with climate warming may be dry biased due to the GCM smoothing of the regional topography.

Pre-service teacher professional development on climate change: Assessment of workshop success and influence of prior knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veron, D. E.; Ad-Marbach, G.; Fox-Lykens, R.; Ozbay, G.; Sezen-Barrie, A.; Wolfson, J.

2017-12-01

As states move to adopt the next generation science standards, in-service teachers are being provided with professional development that introduces climate change content and best practices for teaching climate change in the classroom. However, research has shown that it is challenging to bring this information into the higher education curriculum in education courses for pre-service teachers due to curricular and programming constraints. Over two years, the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project explored a professional development approach for pre-service teachers which employed paired workshops that resulted in participant-developed lesson plans based on climate change content. The workshops were designed to provide pre-service teachers with climate change content related to the carbon cycle and to model a variety of techniques and activities for presenting this information in the classroom. Lesson plans were developed between the first and second workshop, presented at the second workshop and discussed with peers and in-service teachers, and then revised in response to feedback from the second workshop. Participant climate change content knowledge was assessed before the first workshop, and after the final revision of the lesson plan was submitted to the MADE-CLEAR team. Climate content knowledge was also assessed using the same survey for additional pre-service teacher groups who did not participate in the professional development. Results show that while the paired workshop approach increased climate content knowledge, the amount of improvement varied depending on the participants' prior knowledge in climate change content. In addition, some alternate conceptions of climate change were not altered by participant involvement in the professional development approach. Revised lesson plans showed understanding of underlying climate change impacts and demonstrated awareness of appropriate techniques for introducing this complex topic. These findings will be useful to those planning pre-service teacher professional development on climate change in the future.

A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.

Sensitivity of Alpine Snow and Streamflow Regimes to Climate Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Marks, D. G.; Bernhardt, M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in alpine areas with snow dominated regimes is of paramount importance as alpine basins show both high runoff efficiency associated with the melt of the seasonal snowpack and great sensitivity of snow processes to temperature change. In this study, meteorological data measured in a selection of alpine headwaters basins including Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho, USA, Wolf Creek, Yukon in Canada, and Zugspitze Mountain, Germany with climates ranging from arctic to continental temperate were used to study the snow and streamflow sensitivity to climate change. All research sites have detailed multi-decadal meteorological and snow measurements. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to create a model representing a typical alpine headwater basin discretized into hydrological response units with physically based representations of snow redistribution by wind, complex terrain snowmelt energetics and runoff processes in alpine tundra. The sensitivity of snow hydrology to climate change was investigated by changing air temperature and precipitation using weather generating methods based on the change factors obtained from different climate model projections for future and current periods. The basin mean and spatial variability of peak snow water equivalent, sublimation loss, duration of snow season, snowmelt rates, streamflow peak, and basin discharge were assessed under varying climate scenarios and the most sensitive hydrological mechanisms to the changes in the different alpine climates were detected. The results show that snow hydrology in colder alpine climates is more resilient to warming than that in warmer climates, but that compensatory factors to warming such as reduced blowing snow sublimation loss and reduced melt rate should also be assessed when considering climate change impacts on alpine hydrology.

Supporting NGSS-aligned Study of Authentic Data about Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zalles, D. R.

2013-12-01

The subject of climate change holds tremendous opportunity for students to learn how scientists use data to develop and test theories of how the natural world works and appreciate how climate change instantiates cross-cutting NGSS science themes like stability and change, energy and matter, and cause and effect. To do so, students and teachers need help seeing in authentic Earth system data complex climate interactions and generate plans for building greater understanding of the complexities through further data investigation. With ever-growing repositories of global and regional public data and user friendly tools for their display, K-12 educators are challenged to help students study data independently rather than through the usual pre-filtered didactic presentations of data found in textbooks. The paper will describe strategies for facilitating critical thinking about authentic climate-related data in two climate change education projects funded by NASA and NSF, as well as learning outcomes. Data Enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (dicce.sri.com) brings data from NASA satellite missions to classrooms. Studying Topography, Orographic Rainfall, and Ecosystems with Geospatial Information Technology (store.sri.com) provides recent climatological and vegetation data about certain study areas in California and New York plus geospatially distributed projected values of temperature, precipitation, and land cover in 2050 and 2099, derived from NCAR's A2 climate change model. Supportive resources help students move from naïve conceptions of simple linear relationships between variables into critical analysis of what other variables could be mediating those relationships. DICCE contains guides for how to interpret multiyear trends that are evident in the NASA mission data in relation to what we know about current climate change. If a learner plots a line of best fit across multiple months or years of regional data and notices that the line is either sloping up or down, the trend guide suggests what this might mean and suggests what additional types of data to examine for verification. For example, the variable euphotic depth looks at ocean surface water clarity. If students notice that euphotic depth has decreased, the trend guide explains how this could be evidence of increased runoff from coastal lands. Yet, increased runoff may or may not be an effect of regional climate change; an effect if from increasingly severe storms, or not an effect if from increased deforestation in the coastal watershed. Or, perhaps both could be occurring. To investigate further, students are encouraged to study if other data about the region shows trends (e.g., accumulated precipitation, rainfall rate, and air temperature) and to see if the decreased euphotic depth is also occurring further from the coastline. This could indicate decreased phytoplankton, which in turn could result from climate change if the decrease is due to increased sea surface temperatures that mitigate upwelling of nutrients from colder depths. The STORE project also stimulates discovery of complex relationships in data. For example, students seeking confirmation of a linear relationship between increased elevation and increased precipitation study authentic data showing how the relationship is mediated by proximity to large bodies of water and storm paths.

THE RESPONSE OF ANIMAL RANGE TO CLIMATIC AND LAND-USE CHANGES

EPA Science Inventory

The geographic ranges of animal taxa seem much more complex than those of plants, since mobile animals may be constrained by many factors other than readily measurable climatic conditions. These additional factors may include microclimate and availability of particular plant type...

Empowering Youth to Think and Act Critically About Complex Climate Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harden, L.; Michelson, M.; Schufreider, M.; Babcock, E.; Klotz-Chamberlin, R.; Bagley, E.; Cassidy, E. S.; Levedahl, K.; Perez, N.; Vanderbilt, C.; Hammond, K.; Brutus, D.; Arrowsmith, T.

2016-12-01

The world is facing complex environmental challenges and a changing climate is one of the most pressing. These challenges require innovative solutions, which can only be achieved by first developing a more science and environmentally literate public through high-quality education. We know a lot about how to frame climate change messages to be most effective for adults (1). However, we know much less about how youth respond to these same messages. It is important to engage adolescents in these conversations, as this is the age when kids begin to think more critically and abstractly about complex problems, but also when peer and social influences increase in importance (2). Thus, middle school is a critical point in young students' lives when they might either lose interest in science or gain a strong science identity. To keep them interested and invested in science and environmental issues, we need relevant and transformative climate change materials for use in the classroom—materials that are video-based, compelling, and presented by other youth. The California Academy of Sciences has developed a video-based series with lessons supporting the NGSS called Flipside Science that challenges youth to think critically about complex environmental issues. Exploring Energy: Designing a Brighter Future is a unit within this series that engages youth in thinking about how we can make changes to our current energy uses and behaviors to combat climate change. The videos in the unit are hosted by diverse teens who bring an optimistic and relevant voice to these issues, and the associated lessons engage students in honing their design thinking and problem-solving skills. Although intended for use inside the classroom, these resources inspire action among youth outside of the classroom and in their communities. Initial evaluations of two other Flipside Science units on water and food issues indicate that the youth-powered nature of the videos and the real-world challenges posed in the lessons are meaningful to students and useful for teachers. They also point the way to reimagining how environmental issues are taught by presenting them in a youth voice and injecting youth perspective on these pressing problems.1 ecoAmerica et al. (2015). Let's Talk Climate: Messages to Motivate Americans. 2 Keating, D P (1990). Adolescent thinking.

Climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollution ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is an abstract for a presentations at the Annual Conference of the International Society on Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology. This presentation will serve as an introduction to the symposium. As we consider the potential health impacts of a warming planet, the relationships between climate change and air pollutants become increasingly important to understand. These relationships are complex and highly variable, causing a variety of environmental impacts at local, regional and global scales. Human exposures and health impacts for air pollutants have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures to these pollutants. Research on this topic will provide both state and local governments with the tools and scientific knowledge base to undertake any necessary adaptation of the air pollution regulations and/or public health management systems in the face of climate change.

Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

PubMed Central

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Conclusions/Significance Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects. PMID:23152836

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2018-01-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (−10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. PMID:29628526

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish.

PubMed

Rolls, Robert J; Hayden, Brian; Kahilainen, Kimmo K

2017-06-01

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context-dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non-native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.

Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Brooke, Cassandra

2008-12-01

The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

PubMed

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

Christian Higher Education in a Changing Context: Shifting from Pillars to Practices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broer, Nico A.; Hoogland, Jan; van der Stoep, Jan

2017-01-01

The process of global modernization has reached a new phase. In many parts of the world, societies have become so complex that the logic that characterized first modernity no longer works. Simultaneously, societies are confronted by huge and complex side effects of modern rationality, such as climate change, migration influx, global inequality,…

Predicting effects of climate change on the composition and function of soil microbial communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubinsky, E.; Brodie, E.; Myint, C.; Ackerly, D.; van Nostrand, J.; Bird, J.; Zhou, J.; Andersen, G.; Firestone, M.

2008-12-01

Complex soil microbial communities regulate critical ecosystem processes that will be altered by climate change. A critical step towards predicting the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems is to determine the primary controllers of soil microbial community composition and function, and subsequently evaluate climate change scenarios that alter these controllers. We surveyed complex soil bacterial and archaeal communities across a range of climatic and edaphic conditions to identify critical controllers of soil microbial community composition in the field and then tested the resulting predictions using a 2-year manipulation of precipitation and temperature using mesocosms of California annual grasslands. Community DNA extracted from field soils sampled from six different ecosystems was assayed for bacterial and archaeal communities using high-density phylogenetic microarrays as well as functional gene arrays. Correlations among the relative abundances of thousands of microbial taxa and edaphic factors such as soil moisture and nutrient content provided a basis for predicting community responses to changing soil conditions. Communities of soil bacteria and archaea were strongly structured by single environmental predictors, particularly variables related to soil water. Bacteria in the Actinomycetales and Bacilli consistently demonstrated a strong negative response to increasing soil moisture, while taxa in a greater variety of lineages responded positively to increasing soil moisture. In the climate change experiment, overall bacterial community structure was impacted significantly by total precipitation but not by plant species. Changes in soil moisture due to decreased rainfall resulted in significant and predictable alterations in community structure. Over 70% of the bacterial taxa in common with the cross-ecosystem study responded as predicted to altered precipitation, with the most conserved response from Actinobacteria. The functional consequences of these predictable changes in community composition were measured with functional arrays that detect genes involved in the metabolism of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. The response of soil microbial communities to altered precipitation can be predicted from the distribution of microbial taxa across moisture gradients.

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Management of the San Juan Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rich, P. M.; Weintraub, L. H.; Chen, L.; Herr, J.

2005-12-01

Recent climatic events, including regional drought and increased storm severity, have accentuated concerns that climatic extremes may be increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. As part of the ZeroNet Water-Energy Initiative, the San Juan Decision Support System includes a basin-scale modeling tool to evaluate effects of climate change on water budgets under different climate and management scenarios. The existing Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) was enhanced with iterative modeling capabilities to enable construction of climate scenarios based on historical and projected data. We applied WARMF to 42,000 km2 (16,000 mi2) of the San Juan Basin (CO, NM) to assess impacts of extended drought and increased temperature on surface water balance. Simulations showed that drought and increased temperature impact water availability for all sectors (agriculture, energy, municipal, industry), and lead to increased frequency of critical shortages. Implementation of potential management alternatives such as "shortage sharing" or degraded water usage during critical years helps improve available water supply. In the face of growing concern over climate change, limited water resources, and competing demands, integrative modeling tools can enable better understanding of complex interconnected systems, and enable better decisions.

Climate change and skin.

PubMed

Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

2013-02-01

Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many dermatoses.

Effect of reservoir zones and hedging factor dynamism on reservoir adaptive capacity for climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy

2018-06-01

When based on the zones of available water in storage, hedging has traditionally used a single hedged zone and a constant rationing ratio for constraining supply during droughts. Given the usual seasonality of reservoir inflows, it is also possible that hedging could feature multiple hedged zones and temporally varying rationing ratios but very few studies addressing this have been reported especially in relation to adaptation to projected climate change. This study developed and tested Genetic Algorithms (GA) optimised zone-based operating policies of various configurations using data for the Pong reservoir, Himachal Pradesh, India. The results show that hedging does lessen vulnerability, which dropped from ≥ 60 % without hedging to below 25 % with the single stage hedging. More complex hedging policies, e.g. two stage and/or temporally varying rationing ratios only produced marginal improvements in performance. All this shows that water hedging policies do not have to be overly complex to effectively offset reservoir vulnerability caused by water shortage resulting from e.g. projected climate change.

Teaching climate change: A 16-year record of introducing undergraduates to the fundamentals of the climate system and its complexities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, G.; Pfirman, S. L.; Hays, J. D.; Schlosser, P.; Ting, M.

2011-12-01

Responding to climate change challenges in the near and far future, will require a wide range of knowledge, skills and a sense of the complexities involved. Since 1995, Columbia University and Barnard College have offered an undergraduate class that strives to provide students with some of these skills. The 'Climate System' course is a component of the three-part 'Earth Environmental Systems' series and provides the fundamentals needed for understanding the Earth's climate system and its variability. Being designed both for science majors and non-science majors, the emphasis of the course is on basic physical explanations, rather than mathematical derivations of the laws that govern the climate system. The course includes lectures, labs and discussion. Laboratory exercises primarily explore the climate system using global datasets, augmented by hands-on activities. Course materials are available for public use at http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/camel_modules/ and http://ncseonline.org/climate/cms.cfm?id=3783. In this presentation we discuss the experiences, challenges and future demands of conveying the science of the Earth's Climate System and the risks facing the planet to a wide spectrum of undergraduate students, many of them without a background in the sciences. Using evaluation data we reflect how the course, the students, and the faculty have evolved over the past 16 years as the earth warmed, pressures for adaptation planning and mitigation measures increased, and public discourse became increasingly polarized.

Climate change and public health policy: translating the science.

PubMed

Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

2013-12-19

Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.

Climate Change and Public Health Policy: Translating the Science

PubMed Central

Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

2013-01-01

Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character. PMID:24452252

The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast: A NOAA RISA Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast, or CCRUN, was funded in October 2010 under NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program to serve stakeholder needs in assessing and managing risks from climate variability and change. It is currently also the only RISA team with a principal focus on climate change adaptation in urban settings. While CCRUN's initial focus is on the major cities of the urban Northeast corridor (Philadelphia, New York and Boston), its work will ultimately expand to cover small and medium-sized cities in the relevant portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania as well, so that local needs for targeted climate-risk information can be served in a coordinated way. CCRUN is designed to address the complex challenges that are associated with densely populated, highly interconnected urban areas, including such as urban heat island effects; poor air quality; intense coastal development, and multifunctional settlement along inland waterways; complex overlapping institutional jurisdictions; integrated infrastructure systems; and highly diverse, and in some cases, fragile socio-economic communities. These challenges can best be addressed by the stakeholder-driven interdisciplinary approach taken by the CCRUN RISA team. As an important added benefit, the research accomplishments and lessons learned through stakeholder engagement will provide a foundation for managing climate risks in other urban areas in the United States. CCRUN's initial projects are focused in three broad sectors: Water, Coasts, and Health. Research in each of these sectors is linked through the cross-cutting themes of climate change and community vulnerability, the latter of which is especially important in considerations of environmental justice and equity. CCRUN's stakeholder-driven approach to research can therefore support investigations of the impacts of a changing climate, population growth, and urban and economic policies on the social, racial and ethnic dimensions of livelihoods and of communities in the urban Northeast corridor. Disadvantaged socio-economic groups have been particularly underserved in the area of climate change, and one of CCRUN's long-term goals is the building of adaptive capacity among such groups to current and future climate extremes.

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review.

PubMed

Hellberg, Rosalee S; Chu, Eric

2016-08-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.

USGS Capabilities to Study the Impacts of Drought and Climate Change in the Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2009-01-01

In the Southeast, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are researching issues through technical studies of water availability and quality, geologic processes (marine, coastal, and terrestrial), geographic complexity, and biological resources. The USGS is prepared to tackle multifaceted questions associated with global climate change and resulting weather patterns such as drought through expert scientific skill, innovative research approaches, and accurate information technology.

Climate change enhances the mobilisation of naturally occurring metals in high altitude environments.

PubMed

Zaharescu, Dragos G; Hooda, Peter S; Burghelea, Carmen I; Polyakov, Viktor; Palanca-Soler, Antonio

2016-08-01

Manmade climate change has expressed a plethora of complex effects on Earth's biogeochemical compartments. Climate change may also affect the mobilisation of natural metal sources, with potential ecological consequences beyond mountains' geographical limits; however, this question has remained largely unexplored. We investigated this by analysing a number of key climatic factors in relationship with trace metal accumulation in the sediment core of a Pyrenean lake. The sediment metal contents showed increasing accumulation trend over time, and their levels varied in step with recent climate change. The findings further revealed that a rise in the elevation of freezing level, a general increase in the frequency of drier periods, changes in the frequency of winter freezing days and a reducing snow cover since the early 1980s, together are responsible for the observed variability and augmented accumulation of trace metals. Our results provide clear evidence of increased mobilisation of natural metal sources - an overlooked effect of climate change on the environment. With further alterations in climate equilibrium predicted over the ensuing decades, it is likely that mountain catchments in metamorphic areas may become significant sources of trace metals, with potentially harmful consequences for the wider environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Building Partnerships and Research Collaborations to Address the Impacts of Arctic Change: The North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J.; North, L. A.; Strenecky, B.

2015-12-01

Changes in Arctic warming influence the various atmospheric and oceanic patterns that drive Caribbean and mid-latitude climate events, including extreme events like drought, tornadoes, and flooding in Kentucky and the surrounding region. Recently, the establishment of the North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) project at Western Kentucky University (WKU) in partnership with the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland Arctic Cooperation Network (IACN), and Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) provides a foundation from which to engage students in applied research from the local to global levels and more clearly understand the many tenets of climate change impacts in the Arctic within both a global and local community context. The NAC3 project encompasses many facets, including joint international courses, student internships, economic development, service learning, and applied research. In its first phase, the project has generated myriad outcomes and opportunities for bridging STEM disciplines with other fields to holistically and collaboratively address specific human-environmental issues falling under the broad umbrella of climate change. WKU and UNAK students desire interaction and exposure to other cultures and regions that are threatened by climate change and Iceland presents a unique opportunity to study influences such as oceanic processes, island economies, sustainable harvest of fisheries, and Arctic influences on climate change. The project aims to develop a model to bring partners together to conduct applied research on the complex subject of global environmental change, particularly in the Arctic, while simultaneously focusing on changing how we learn, develop community, and engage internationally to understand the impacts and find solutions.

Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobanova, Anastasia; Liersch, Stefan; Tàbara, J. David; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

2017-05-01

Conventional water management strategies, that serve solely socio-economic demands and neglect changing natural conditions of the river basins, face significant challenges in governing complex human-hydrological systems, especially in the areas with constrained water availability. In this study we assess the possibility to harmonize the inter-sectoral water allocation scheme within a highly altered human-hydrological system under reduction in water availability, triggered by projected climate change applying scenario-based approach. The Tagus River Basin headwaters, with significant disproportion in the water resources allocation between the environmental and socio-economic targets were taken as a perfect example of such system out of balance. We propose three different water allocation strategies for this region, including two conventional schemes and one imposing shift to sustainable water management and environmental restoration of the river. We combine in one integrated modelling framework the eco-hydrological process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), coupled with the conceptual reservoir and water allocation modules driven by the latest bias-corrected climate projections for the region and investigate possible water allocation scenarios in the region under constrained water availability in the future. Our results show that the socio-economic demands have to be re-considered and lowered under any water allocation strategy, as the climate impacts may significantly reduce water availability in the future. Further, we show that a shift to sustainable water management strategy and river restoration is possible even under reduced water availability. Finally, our results suggest that the adaptation of complex human-hydrological systems to climate change and a shift to a more sustainable water management are likely to be parts of one joint strategy to cope with climate change impacts.

Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

PubMed

Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

2016-11-01

Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change effects on above- and below-ground interactions in a dryland ecosystem.

PubMed

González-Megías, Adela; Menéndez, Rosa

2012-11-19

Individual species respond to climate change by altering their abundance, distribution and phenology. Less is known, however, about how climate change affects multitrophic interactions, and its consequences for food-web dynamics. Here, we investigate the effect of future changes in rainfall patterns on detritivore-plant-herbivore interactions in a semiarid region in southern Spain by experimentally manipulating rainfall intensity and frequency during late spring-early summer. Our results show that rain intensity changes the effect of below-ground detritivores on both plant traits and above-ground herbivore abundance. Enhanced rain altered the interaction between detritivores and plants affecting flower and fruit production, and also had a direct effect on fruit and seed set. Despite this finding, there was no net effect on plant reproductive output. This finding supports the idea that plants will be less affected by climatic changes than by other trophic levels. Enhanced rain also affected the interaction between detritivores and free-living herbivores. The effect, however, was apparent only for generalist and not for specialist herbivores, demonstrating a differential response to climate change within the same trophic level. The complex responses found in this study suggest that future climate change will affect trophic levels and their interactions differentially, making extrapolation from individual species' responses and from one ecosystem to another very difficult.

Effects of climate change on forest vegetation in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keane, Robert E.; Mahalovich, Mary Frances; Bollenbacher, Barry L.; Manning, Mary E.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Jain, Terrie B.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Larson, Andrew J.; Webster, Meredith M.

2018-01-01

The projected rapid changes in climate will affect the unique vegetation assemblages of the Northern Rockies region in myriad ways, both directly through shifts in vegetation growth, mortality, and regeneration, and indirectly through changes in disturbance regimes and interactions with changes in other ecosystem processes, such as hydrology, snow dynamics, and exotic invasions (Bonan 2008; Hansen and Phillips 2015; Hansen et al. 2001; Notaro et al. 2007). These impacts, taken collectively, could change the way vegetation is managed by public land agencies in this area. Some species may be in danger of rapid decreases in abundance, while others may undergo range expansion (Landhäusser et al. 2010). New vegetation communities may form, while historical vegetation complexes may simply shift to other areas of the landscape or become rare. Juxtaposed with climate change concerns are the consequences of other land management policies and past activities, such as fire exclusion, fuels treatments, and grazing. A thorough assessment of the responses of vegetation to projected climate change is needed, along with an evaluation of the vulnerability of important species, communities, and vegetation-related resources that may be influenced by the effects, both direct and indirect, of climate change. This assessment must also account for past management actions and current vegetation conditions and their interactions with future climates.

Modeling Earth's Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pallant, Amy; Lee, Hee-Sun; Pryputniewicz, Sara

2012-01-01

Systems thinking suggests that one can best understand a complex system by studying the interrelationships of its component parts rather than looking at the individual parts in isolation. With ongoing concern about the effects of climate change, using innovative materials to help students understand how Earth's systems connect with each other is…

Integrated modeling of land-use change: the role of coupling, interactions and feedbacks between the human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.; Winchester, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

2016-12-01

Land-use change integrates a large number of components of the human and Earth systems, including climate, energy, water, and land. These complex coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks take place on a variety of space and time scales, thus increasing the complexity of land-use change modeling frameworks. In this study, we aim to identify which coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks are important for modeling land-use change, both at the global and regional level. First, we review the existing land-use change modeling framework used to develop land-use change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In such framework, land-use change is simulated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mainly influenced by economic, energy, demographic and policy drivers. IAMs focus on representing the demand for agriculture and forestry goods (crops for food and bioenergy, forest products for construction and bioenergy), the interactions with other sectors of the economy and trade between various regions of the world. Then, we investigate how important various coupling elements and feedbacks with the Earth system are for projections of land-use change at the global and regional level. We focus on the following: i) the climate impacts on land productivity and greenhouse gas emissions, which requires climate change information and coupling to a terrestrial ecosystem model/crop model; ii) the climate and economic impacts on irrigation availability, which requires coupling the LUC modeling framework to a water resources management model and disaggregating rainfed and irrigated croplands; iii) the feedback of land-use change on the global and regional climate system through land-use change emissions and changes in the surface albedo and hydrology, which requires coupling to an Earth system model. Finally, we conclude our study by highlighting the current lack of clarity in how various components of the human and Earth systems are coupled in IAMs , and the need for a lexicon that is agreed upon by the IAM community.

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

PubMed

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Ecological complexity buffers the impacts of future climate on marine consumers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, Silvan U.; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Marangon, Emma; Bonnet, Angélique; Ferreira, Camilo M.; Connell, Sean D.

2018-03-01

Ecological complexity represents a network of interacting components that either propagate or counter the effects of environmental change on individuals and communities1-3. Yet, our understanding of the ecological imprint of ocean acidification (elevated CO2) and climate change (elevated temperature) is largely based on reports of negative effects on single species in simplified laboratory systems4,5. By combining a large mesocosm experiment with a global meta-analysis, we reveal the capacity of consumers (fish and crustaceans) to resist the impacts of elevated CO2. While individual behaviours were impaired by elevated CO2, consumers could restore their performances in more complex environments that allowed for compensatory processes. Consequently, consumers maintained key traits such as foraging, habitat selection and predator avoidance despite elevated CO2 and sustained their populations. Our observed increase in risk-taking under elevated temperature, however, predicts greater vulnerability of consumers to predation. Yet, CO2 as a resource boosted the biomass of consumers through species interactions and may stabilize communities by countering the negative effects of elevated temperature. We conclude that compensatory dynamics inherent in the complexity of nature can buffer the impacts of future climate on species and their communities.

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

2009-04-01

Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

PubMed

Gong, Minghao; Guan, Tianpei; Hou, Meng; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Tianyuan

2017-01-01

One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change-induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.

Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming.

PubMed

Rabasa, Sonia G; Granda, Elena; Benavides, Raquel; Kunstler, Georges; Espelta, Josep M; Ogaya, Romá; Peñuelas, Josep; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Gil, Wojciech; Grodzki, Wojciech; Ambrozy, Slawomir; Bergh, Johan; Hódar, José A; Zamora, Regino; Valladares, Fernando

2013-08-01

Predicting climate-driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30-year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Collapse of Lowland Maya Civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, Peter M. J.; Demarest, Arthur A.; Brenner, Mark; Canuto, Marcello A.

2016-06-01

Paleoclimatologists have discovered abundant evidence that droughts coincided with collapse of the Lowland Classic Maya civilization, and some argue that climate change contributed to societal disintegration. Many archaeologists, however, maintain that drought cannot explain the timing or complex nature of societal changes at the end of the Classic Period, between the eighth and eleventh centuries ce. This review presents a compilation of climate proxy data indicating that droughts in the ninth to eleventh century were the most severe and frequent in Maya prehistory. Comparison with recent archaeological evidence, however, indicates an earlier beginning for complex economic and political processes that led to the disintegration of states in the southern region of the Maya lowlands that precedes major droughts. Nonetheless, drought clearly contributed to the unusual severity of the Classic Maya collapse, and helped to inhibit the type of recovery seen in earlier periods of Maya prehistory. In the drier northern Maya Lowlands, a later political collapse at ca. 1000 ce appears to be related to ongoing extreme drought. Future interdisciplinary research should use more refined climatological and archaeological data to examine the relationship between climate and social processes throughout the entirety of Maya prehistory.

Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review.

PubMed

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

2018-04-18

Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links.

Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

2009-04-01

Climate change is a core topic within Earth Science-related courses. This vast topic covers a wide array of different aspects that could be covered, from past climatic change across a vast range of scales to environmental (and social and economic) impacts of future climatic change and strategies for reducing anthropogenic climate change. The Earth Science disciplines play a crucial role in our understanding of past, present and future climate change and the Earth system in addition to understanding leading to development of strategies and technological solutions to achieve sustainability. However, an increased knowledge of the occurrence and causes of past (natural) climate changes can lead to a lessened concern and sense of urgency and responsibility amongst students in relation to anthropogenic causes of climatic change. Two concepts integral to the teaching of climate change are those of scientific uncertainty and complexity, yet an emphasis on these concepts can lead to scepticism about future predictions and a further loss of sense of urgency. The requirement to understand the nature of scientific uncertainty and think and move between different scales in particular relating an increased knowledge of longer timescale climatic change to recent (industrialised) climate change, are clearly areas of troublesome knowledge that affect students' sense of responsibility towards their role in achieving a sustainable society. Study of the attitudes of university students in a UK HE institution on a range of Earth Science-related programmes highlights a range of different attitudes in the student body towards the subject of climate change. Students express varied amounts of ‘climate change saturation' resulting from both media and curriculum coverage, a range of views relating to the significance of humans to the global climate and a range of opinions about the relevance of environmental citizenship to their degree programme. Climate change is therefore a challenging topic to cover within the Earth Science-related curricula due to wide-ranging, and sometimes polarised, existing attitudes of students and levels of existing partial and sometimes flawed knowledge in addition to the troublesome concepts that need to be grasped. These issues highlight the responsibility and challenge inherent in teaching the subject of climate change and the importance of consideration of integrating sustainability issues with the core science of climate change. The talk will include a discussion of strategies and resources for the effective teaching of climate change topics for a range of levels and discipline backgrounds.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and nitrogen deposition on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) growth in Austria with BIOME-BGC.

PubMed

Eastaugh, Chris S; Pötzelsberger, Elisabeth; Hasenauer, Hubert

2011-03-01

The aim of this paper is to determine whether a detectable impact of climate change is apparent in Austrian forests. In regions of complex terrain such as most of Austria, climatic trends over the past 50 years show marked geographic variability. As climate is one of the key drivers of forest growth, a comparison of growth characteristics between regions with different trends in temperature and precipitation can give insights into the impact of climatic change on forests. This study uses data from several hundred climate recording stations, interpolated to measurement sites of the Austrian National Forest Inventory (NFI). Austria as a whole shows a warming trend over the past 50 years and little overall change in precipitation. The warming trends, however, vary considerably across certain regions and regional precipitation trends vary widely in both directions, which cancel out on the national scale These differences allow the delineation of 'climatic change zones' with internally consistent climatic trends that differ from other zones. This study applies the species-specific adaptation of the biogeochemical model BIOME-BGC to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) across a range of Austrian climatic change zones, using input data from a number of national databases. The relative influence of extant climate change on forest growth is quantified, and compared with the far greater impact of non-climatic factors. At the national scale, climate change is found to have negligible effect on Norway spruce productivity, due in part to opposing effects at the regional level. The magnitudes of the modeled non-climatic influences on aboveground woody biomass increment increases are consistent with previously reported values of 20-40 kg of added stem carbon sequestration per kilogram of additional nitrogen deposition, while climate responses are of a magnitude difficult to detect in NFI data.

Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2017-07-01

Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

Response of the tropical Pacific to abrupt climate change 8,200 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwood, A. R.; Battisti, D.; Bitz, C. M.; Sachs, J. P.

2017-12-01

The relatively stable climate of the Holocene epoch was punctuated by a period of large and abrupt climate change ca. 8,200 yr BP, when an outburst of glacial meltwater into the Labrador Sea drove large and abrupt climate changes across the globe. However, little is known about the response of the tropical Pacific to this event. We present the first evidence for large perturbations to the eastern tropical Pacific climate, based on sedimentary biomarker and hydrogen isotopic records from a freshwater lake in the Galápagos Islands. We inform these reconstructions with freshwater forcing simulations performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4. Together, the biomarker records and model simulations provide evidence for a mechanistic link between (1) a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern equatorial Pacific and (2) decreased frequency and/or intensity of Eastern Pacific El Niño events during the 8,200 BP event. While climate theory and modeling studies support a southward shift of the ITCZ in response to a weakened AMOC, the dynamical drivers for the observed change in ENSO variability are less well developed. To explore these linkages, we perform simulations with an intermediate complexity model of the tropical Pacific. These results provide valuable insight into the controls of tropical Pacific climate variability and the mechanisms behind the global response to abrupt climate change.

System Dynamics to Climate-Driven Water Budget Analysis in the Eastern Snake Plains Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J.; Contor, B.; Wylie, A.; Johnson, G.; Allen, R. G.

2010-12-01

Climate variability, weather extremes and climate change continue to threaten the sustainability of water resources in the western United States. Given current climate change projections, increasing temperature is likely to modify the timing, form, and intensity of precipitation events, which consequently affect regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, drought, water shortage, and subsequent water conflicts may become an increasing threat in monotone hydrologic systems in arid lands, such as the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA). The ESPA, in particular, is a critical asset in the state of Idaho. It is known as the economic lifeblood for more than half of Idaho’s population so that water resources availability and aquifer management due to climate change is of great interest, especially over the next few decades. In this study, we apply system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in ESPA’s water resources management. Aquifer recharge and discharge dynamics are coded in STELLA modeling system as input and output, respectively to identify long-term behavior of aquifer responses to climate-driven hydrological changes.

Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations. PMID:20525341

The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

Ecological Limits to Terrestrial Carbon Dioxide Removal Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. J.; Torn, M. S.; Jones, A. D.

2011-12-01

Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere through terrestrial carbon sequestration and bioenergy (biological CDR) is a proposed climate change mitigation strategy. Biological CDR increases the carbon storage capacity of soils and biomass through changes in land cover and use, including reforestation, afforestation, conversion of land to agriculture for biofuels, conversion of degraded land to grassland, and alternative management practices such as conservation tillage. While biological CDR may play a valuable role in future climate change mitigation, many of its proponents fail to account for the full range of biological, biophysical, hydrologic, and economic complexities associated with proposed land use changes. In this analysis, we identify and discuss a set of ecological limits and impacts associated with terrestrial CDR. The capacity of biofuels, soils, and other living biomass to sequester carbon may be constrained by nutrient and water availability, soil dynamics, and local climate effects, all of which can change spatially and temporally in unpredictable ways. Even if CDR is effective at sequestering CO2, its associated land use and land cover changes may negatively impact ecological resources by compromising water quality and availability, degrading soils, reducing biodiversity, displacing agriculture, and altering local climate through albedo and evapotranspiration changes. Measures taken to overcome ecological limitations, such as fertilizer addition and irrigation, may exacerbate these impacts even further. The ecological considerations and quantitative analyses that we present highlight uncertainties introduced by ecological complexity, disagreements between models, perverse economic incentives, and changing environmental factors. We do not reject CDR as a potentially valuable strategy for climate change mitigation; ecosystem protection, restoration, and improved management practices could enhance soil fertility and protect biodiversity while reducing increases in atmospheric CO2. Rather, we emphasize the importance of evaluating the full set of biological, physical, economic, and political realities that accompany land-use changes and manipulations to the carbon cycle. While the immediate goal of biological CDR is to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations, its ultimate goal in mitigating climate change is to reduce the threats to ecosystems and society. Sequestering carbon at the cost of ecosystem health would not be a sensible approach.

Understanding Climate Uncertainty with an Ocean Focus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokmakian, R. T.

2009-12-01

Uncertainty in climate simulations arises from various aspects of the end-to-end process of modeling the Earth’s climate. First, there is uncertainty from the structure of the climate model components (e.g. ocean/ice/atmosphere). Even the most complex models are deficient, not only in the complexity of the processes they represent, but in which processes are included in a particular model. Next, uncertainties arise from the inherent error in the initial and boundary conditions of a simulation. Initial conditions are the state of the weather or climate at the beginning of the simulation and other such things, and typically come from observations. Finally, there is the uncertainty associated with the values of parameters in the model. These parameters may represent physical constants or effects, such as ocean mixing, or non-physical aspects of modeling and computation. The uncertainty in these input parameters propagates through the non-linear model to give uncertainty in the outputs. The models in 2020 will no doubt be better than today’s models, but they will still be imperfect, and development of uncertainty analysis technology is a critical aspect of understanding model realism and prediction capability. Smith [2002] and Cox and Stephenson [2007] discuss the need for methods to quantify the uncertainties within complicated systems so that limitations or weaknesses of the climate model can be understood. In making climate predictions, we need to have available both the most reliable model or simulation and a methods to quantify the reliability of a simulation. If quantitative uncertainty questions of the internal model dynamics are to be answered with complex simulations such as AOGCMs, then the only known path forward is based on model ensembles that characterize behavior with alternative parameter settings [e.g. Rougier, 2007]. The relevance and feasibility of using "Statistical Analysis of Computer Code Output" (SACCO) methods for examining uncertainty in ocean circulation due to parameter specification will be described and early results using the ocean/ice components of the CCSM climate model in a designed experiment framework will be shown. Cox, P. and D. Stephenson, Climate Change: A Changing Climate for Prediction, 2007, Science 317 (5835), 207, DOI: 10.1126/science.1145956. Rougier, J. C., 2007: Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations, Climatic Change, 81, 247-264. Smith L., 2002, What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proc. Nat’l Academy of Sciences, Vol. 99, suppl. 1, 2487-2492 doi:10.1073/pnas.012580599.

The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture.

PubMed

Morton, John F

2007-12-11

Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

(Climate) Change in young people's minds - From categories towards interconnections between the anthroposphere and natural sphere.

PubMed

Körfgen, Annemarie; Keller, Lars; Kuthe, Alina; Oberrauch, Anna; Stötter, Hans

2017-02-15

The grand challenges of the 21st century will increasingly require societies to reconsider the pathways taken thus far. Engagement with climate change is of ever-growing importance to young people. They will be confronted with the effects of climate change throughout their entire lives and, as future decision-makers, they will vitally shape societal developments. Education will thus play a crucial role in the transformation to a sustainable society. In terms of awareness-raising, an important first step in preparing young people for the challenges of the 21st century is to understand what content is connected with climate change. As complex challenges, such as climate change, demand ways of thinking that go beyond categories, interconnections between the anthroposphere and the natural sphere have to be taken into consideration. This study provides an insight into the questions and topics young people develop whilst becoming involved in climate change in an in-school learning setting and in an out-of-school learning setting (a high mountain environment). The analysis focuses on the question of in which spheres students predominantly make their thematic choices and how far the interconnections between different spheres are formed. Our results show that the choice of the learning setting influences the topics students connect with climate change. Interconnections between sub-spheres of the anthroposphere and natural sphere are made only occasionally. These findings serve as a basis for reconsidering the content and foundation of climate change communication with young people. We recommend that climate change educational programmes should include phases that allow the following: a) involvement with climate change issues related to single spheres in the first phase, and b) consideration of the interconnections between spheres when becoming involved with climate change issues in the second phase. As the educational setting can considerably influence the focus of the learning process, it should be chosen thoughtfully. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Western land managers will need all available tools for adapting to climate change, including grazing: a critique of Beschta et al.

PubMed

Svejcar, Tony; Boyd, Chad; Davies, Kirk; Madsen, Matthew; Bates, Jon; Sheley, Roger; Marlow, Clayton; Bohnert, David; Borman, Mike; Mata-Gonzàlez, Ricardo; Buckhouse, John; Stringham, Tamzen; Perryman, Barry; Swanson, Sherman; Tate, Kenneth; George, Mel; Ruyle, George; Roundy, Bruce; Call, Chris; Jensen, Kevin; Launchbaugh, Karen; Gearhart, Amanda; Vermeire, Lance; Tanaka, John; Derner, Justin; Frasier, Gary; Havstad, Kris

2014-06-01

In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474-491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20-50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.

A Model for Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Keating, G. N.

2009-12-01

Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy. Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water usage can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. In response to the greenhouse gas emission reductions required by California’s Assembly Bill 32 (2006), Sonoma County has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, including water, energy, and transportation. To assist Sonoma County develop a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal we have developed an integrated assessment model, CLEAR (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency) model. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, the CLEAR model simulates the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. This model enables assessment of these and other components with specific analysis of their coupling and feedbacks because, due to the complex nature of the problem, the interrelated sectors cannot be studied independently. The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities. The model user interfaces helps stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Barsugli, Joseph J; Rashford, Benjamin S; Reese, Gordon C; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Wood, Andrew W; Noon, Barry R

2016-09-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes using a coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, S.; Mohr, K. I.

2014-12-01

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. Global climate models, although capable of resolving synoptic-scale South American climate features, are inadequate for fully-resolving the strong gradients between climate regimes and the complex orography which define the Tropical Andes given their low spatial and temporal resolution. Recent computational advances now make practical regional climate modeling with prognostic mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled models, such as the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, to climate research. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the both the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data. More recently, COAWST simulations have also been shown to sensibly reproduce the entire annual cycle of rainfall (Oct 2003 - Oct 2004) with historical climate model input. Using future global climate model input for COAWST, the present work involves year-long cycle spanning October to October for the years 2031, 2059, and 2087 assuming the most likely regional climate pathway (RCP): RCP 6.0. COAWST output is used to investigate how global climate change impacts the spatial distribution, precipitation rates, and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns in the Central Andes vary in these yearly "snapshots". Initial results show little change to precipitation coverage or its diurnal cycle, however precipitation amounts did tend drier over the Brazilian Plateau and wetter over the Western Amazon and Central Andes. These results suggest potential adjustments to large-scale climate features (such as the Bolivian High).

A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

2007-12-01

In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to degenerate. To concern about those items, the sustainable early warning system is established and the initiative fall into the following categories: considering the implications for policies, applying adaptive strategies and informing the new climate changes. By setting up the framework of early warning system expectantly can defend stream area from impacts damaging and in sure the sustainable development.

A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

PubMed Central

Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

2014-01-01

This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru. PMID:25514146

A health impact assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.

PubMed

Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

2014-12-01

This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

Predicting shifting sustainability trade-offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change.

PubMed

Sarà, Gianluca; Gouhier, Tarik C; Brigolin, Daniele; Porporato, Erika M D; Mangano, Maria Cristina; Mirto, Simone; Mazzola, Antonio; Pastres, Roberto

2018-05-03

Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optimizing aquaculture practices by minimizing impact (this study considers as impact a benthic carbon deposition ≥ 1 g C m -2  day -1 ) will become increasingly difficult under climate change. Moreover, an increasing temperature will produce a poleward shift in sustainability trade-offs. These findings suggest that future sustainable management strategies and plans will need to account for the effects of climate change across scales. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating environmental factors in order to sustainably manage critical natural resources under shifting climatic conditions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

PubMed Central

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

PubMed

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production.

PubMed

Leppi, Jason C; Rinella, Daniel J; Wilson, Ryan R; Loya, Wendy M

2014-06-01

Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three-dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20-year span at the end of the century (2080-2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg-to-fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate-change-related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat. © 2013 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review.

PubMed

Runting, Rebecca K; Bryan, Brett A; Dee, Laura E; Maseyk, Fleur J F; Mandle, Lisa; Hamel, Perrine; Wilson, Kerrie A; Yetka, Kathleen; Possingham, Hugh P; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2017-01-01

Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change: Where We've Been, Where We're Headed--A Film Review of "Plan B: Mobilizing to Save Civilization"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kumler, Lori

2012-01-01

"Plan B: Mobilizing to Save Civilization," has much to offer nearly any social studies classroom from 9th grade to college levels. The film is based on Lester R. Brown's book by the same name and is the 12th episode in the Journey to Planet Earth public television series. The film illustrates the complexity of climate change and its connections to…

Functional Group, Biomass, and Climate Change Effects on Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, S. D.; Schlaepfer, D. R.; Bradford, J. B.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Duniway, M. C.; Hall, S. A.; Jamiyansharav, K.; Jia, G.; Lkhagva, A.; Munson, S. M.; Pyke, D. A.; Tietjen, B.

2018-03-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses and shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake, and transpiration. We modeled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30 year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site-determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally increased biomass (i.e., the effects of invasions that increase community biomass or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought in both current and future climates.

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales.

PubMed

Gilman, Sarah E; Wethey, David S; Helmuth, Brian

2006-06-20

Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus over 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.

Promoting Regionally-Based Climate Change Education through Collaborations with Formal and Informal Education Institutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stylinski, C.; Griswold, M.

2012-12-01

Improving climate literacy is necessary to effectively respond to climate change impacts. However, climate change education efforts face significant hurdles both in the classroom and in out-of-school settings. These include addressing uncertainity and the complex mix of drivers and impacts that occur over large spatial and temporal scales. These efforts are further hampered by audiences who are disinterested and resisant to discussions of anthropogenic climate change. Bridging formal and informal education experiences focused on climate change offers a potentially powerful strategy to tackle these challenges. In this session, we will describe our NSF-funded Maryland-Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project, which applies a comprehensive regional partnership among scientists, education researchers, K-12 and informal education practitioners, and other stakeholders to improve public and student understanding of and engagement in climate change issues and solutions. To better understand gaps and opportunities, we have conducted surveys and interviews with K-12, informal, and undergraduate educators and administrators. We found that climate change education aligns with most institutions' missions and efforts, that most educators do not face institutional barriers to climate change education, and that climate change is typically incorporated as part of a host of environmental issues. Despite this, climate change education is still quite limited with few institutions explicitly focusing on climate change in their programming. Additionally, there is little apparent communication among these institutions with regard to this issue. In response to these needs, we have focused the MADE-CLEAR project on creating and providing regionally-relevant resouces and professional development on climate change science, impacts and solutions for both formal and informal educators. Our approach is collaborative and includes strategies to promote networking within and among these two groups. For example, we will lead joint workshops where K-12 teachers can share their in-depth understanding of climate change concepts and links to education standards, while free-choice-learning practitioners can provide their expertise in engaging diverse audiences and supporting more learner-centered teaching. Our resources will further support a formal-informal bridge by helping both groups of educators make climate change relevant to their audiences with local examples of impacts and ways to mitigate or adapt to these impacts. Our project includes design-based research, and thus we will examine how our professional development is translated into practice at different types of institutions and the impact of our approach on enhancing formal-informal education collaborations focused on climate change education.

A Socio-Ecological Approach for Identifying and Contextualising Spatial Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Priorities at the Sub-National Level

PubMed Central

Bourne, Amanda; Holness, Stephen; Holden, Petra; Scorgie, Sarshen; Donatti, Camila I.; Midgley, Guy

2016-01-01

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world. PMID:27227671

Multi-Scale Simulations of Past and Future Projections of Hydrology in Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.; Gardner, M.; Morton, C. G.; Reeves, D. M.; Pohll, G. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources in the Tahoe basin are susceptible to long-term climate change and extreme events because it is a middle-altitude, snow-dominated basin that experiences large inter-annual climate variations. Lake Tahoe provides critical water supply for its basin and downstream populations, but changes in water supply are obscured by complex climatic and hydrologic gradients across the high relief, geologically complex basin. An integrated surface and groundwater model of the Lake Tahoe basin has been developed using GSFLOW to assess the effects of climate change and extreme events on surface and groundwater resources. Key hydrologic mechanisms are identified with this model that explains recent changes in water resources of the region. Critical vulnerabilities of regional water-supplies and hazards also were explored. Maintaining a balance between (a) accurate representation of spatial features (e.g., geology, streams, and topography) and hydrologic response (i.e., groundwater, stream, lake, and wetland flows and storages), and (b) computational efficiency, is a necessity for the desired model applications. Potential climatic influences on water resources are analyzed here in simulations of long-term water-availability and flood responses to selected 100-year climate-model projections. GSFLOW is also used to simulate a scenario depicting an especially extreme storm event that was constructed from a combination of two historical atmospheric-river storm events as part of the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project. Historical simulated groundwater levels, streamflow, wetlands, and lake levels compare well with measured values for a 30-year historical simulation period. Results are consistent for both small and large model grid cell sizes, due to the model's ability to represent water table altitude, streams, and other hydrologic features at the sub-grid scale. Simulated hydrologic responses are affected by climate change, where less groundwater resources will be available during more frequent droughts. Simulated floods for the region indicate issues related to drainage in the developed areas around Lake Tahoe, and necessary dam releases that create downstream flood risks.

A Socio-Ecological Approach for Identifying and Contextualising Spatial Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Priorities at the Sub-National Level.

PubMed

Bourne, Amanda; Holness, Stephen; Holden, Petra; Scorgie, Sarshen; Donatti, Camila I; Midgley, Guy

2016-01-01

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world.

Using ESRI Story Maps for Engaging Tribal Youth in Localized Climate Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masters, E. L.; Marsik, F. J.; Sonderegger, C.

2017-12-01

A critical step in any climate adaptation initiative is the engagement of the community through educational outreach about the impacts of climate change on vulnerable economic, infrastructure and natural resources within the community. For Tribal communities, such outreach must also highlight connections between these vulnerable assets, such as natural resources, and Tribal cultural practices. For adult members of these communities, the combination of traditional ecological knowledge and western science approaches can prove effective in this regard. For Tribal youth, the often complex and data-heavy nature of western science approaches may prove to be more of an obstacle than an aid in communicating the impacts of our changing climate on their local Tribal community. A collaborative educational effort between the Grand Traverse Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians (Peshawbestown, MI) and the University of Michigan seeks to lean upon the rich tradition of storytelling as a method of conveying information to younger generations. The ESRI Story Maps platform provides such a tool through its combined use of narratives, images, maps, and data. The ability to make a Story Map deep and complex, or simple and fun, makes this application ideal for communicating with a range of people, from school-age children to adults. For our project, we created two Story Maps with different complexity levels, with one for elementary to middle school students, and the other targeted at high school students. The project for younger children was aimed at engaging viewers through a series of images and maps, introducing them to the basics of what wetlands are, which types of wetlands can be found locally, Indigenous cultural connections to wetlands, and how to protect wetlands. The more complex project provided a more expansive discussion of these same topics, including threats to these wetlands from human activities, including climate change, as well as an extensive list of references and a glossary of terms that allow the older students to continue of their study of these topics on their own.

Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period: new insights from coupled model experiments constrained by data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renssen, Hans; Mairesse, Aurélien; Goosse, Hugues; Mathiot, Pierre; Heiri, Oliver; Roche, Didier M.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Valdes, Paul J.

2016-04-01

The Younger Dryas cooling event disrupted the overall warming trend in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Climate change during the Younger Dryas was abrupt, and thus provides insights into the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbations. The sudden Younger Dryas cooling has traditionally been attributed to a shut-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by meltwater discharges. However, alternative explanations such as strong negative radiative forcing and a shift in atmospheric circulation have also been offered. In this study we investigate the importance of these different forcings in coupled climate model experiments constrained by data assimilation. We find that the Younger Dryas climate signal as registered in proxy evidence is best simulated using a combination of processes: a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, moderate negative radiative forcing and an altered atmospheric circulation. We conclude that none of the individual mechanisms alone provide a plausible explanation for the Younger Dryas cold period. We suggest that the triggers for abrupt climate changes like the Younger Dryas are more complex than suggested so far, and that studies on the response of the climate system to perturbations should account for this complexity. Reference: Renssen, H. et al. (2015) Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period. Nature Geoscience 8, 946-949.

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.

PubMed

Orwin, Kate H; Stevenson, Bryan A; Smaill, Simeon J; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Dickie, Ian A; Clothier, Brent E; Garrett, Loretta G; van der Weerden, Tony J; Beare, Michael H; Curtin, Denis; de Klein, Cecile A M; Dodd, Michael B; Gentile, Roberta; Hedley, Carolyn; Mullan, Brett; Shepherd, Mark; Wakelin, Steven A; Bell, Nigel; Bowatte, Saman; Davis, Murray R; Dominati, Estelle; O'Callaghan, Maureen; Parfitt, Roger L; Thomas, Steve M

2015-08-01

Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stakeholders' participatory diagnosis of climate change impacts on subsistence agriculture in Sikkim, India, for identifying adaptation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azhoni, A.; Goyal, M. K.

2017-12-01

Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact subsistence agriculture. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers and perspectives of consultants and researchers which are expected to be implemented by development agencies farmers in the state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the framing and implementation of State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the State Government, Scientific Organisations, consultants, local academia, implementing and development agencies, and farmers for whom the adaptation strategies are targeted. Using Social Network and Stakeholder Analysis approach, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying adaptation strategies, and implementing climate change adaptation strategies. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for their subsistence livelihood, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them an access to new and high value crops. Although important steps are initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and identifying the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will likely to pay rich dividends. While Sikkim being a small and hilly state with specific contextual challenges of climate change impacts, the results from this study highlights how the internal and external networks between various types of stakeholders informs decision makers in identifying local impacts of climate change and plan adaptation strategies.

Ecological opportunity and the evolution of habitat preferences in an arid-zone bird: implications for speciation in a climate-modified landscape

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Christidis, Les

2016-01-01

Bioclimatic models are widely used to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distributions. Range shifts are expected to occur as species track their current climate niche yet the potential for exploitation of new ecological opportunities that may arise as ecosystems and communities remodel is rarely considered. Here we show that grasswrens of the Amytornis textilis-modestus complex responded to new ecological opportunities in Australia’s arid biome through shifts in habitat preference following the development of chenopod shrublands during the late Plio-Pleistocene. We find evidence of spatially explicit responses to climatically driven landscape changes including changes in niche width and patterns of population growth. Conservation of structural and functional aspects of the ancestral niche appear to have facilitated recent habitat shifts, while demographic responses to late Pleistocene climate change provide evidence for the greater resilience of populations inhabiting the recently evolved chenopod shrubland communities. Similar responses could occur under future climate change in species exposed to novel ecological conditions, or those already occupying spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models that consider structural and functional aspects of the niche along with regional hydro-dynamics may be better predictors of future climate responses in Australia’s arid biome than bioclimatic models alone. PMID:26787111

Arctic systems in the Quaternary: ecological collision, faunal mosaics and the consequences of a wobbling climate.

PubMed

Hoberg, E P; Cook, J A; Agosta, S J; Boeger, W; Galbreath, K E; Laaksonen, S; Kutz, S J; Brooks, D R

2017-07-01

Climate oscillations and episodic processes interact with evolution, ecology and biogeography to determine the structure and complex mosaic that is the biosphere. Parasites and parasite-host assemblages are key components in a general explanatory paradigm for global biodiversity. We explore faunal assembly in the context of Quaternary time frames of the past 2.6 million years, a period dominated by episodic shifts in climate. Climate drivers cross a continuum from geological to contemporary timescales and serve to determine the structure and distribution of complex biotas. Cycles within cycles are apparent, with drivers that are layered, multifactorial and complex. These cycles influence the dynamics and duration of shifts in environmental structure on varying temporal and spatial scales. An understanding of the dynamics of high-latitude systems, the history of the Beringian nexus (the intermittent land connection linking Eurasia and North America) and downstream patterns of diversity depend on teasing apart the complexity of biotic assembly and persistence. Although climate oscillations have dominated the Quaternary, contemporary dynamics are driven by tipping points and shifting balances emerging from anthropogenic forces that are disrupting ecological structure. Climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing has supplanted a history of episodic variation and is eliminating ecological barriers and constraints on development and distribution for pathogen transmission. A framework to explore interactions of episodic processes on faunal structure and assembly is the Stockholm Paradigm, which appropriately shifts the focus from cospeciation to complexity and contingency in explanations of diversity.

Are weather models better than gridded observations for precipitation in the mountains? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutmann, E. D.; Rasmussen, R.; Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.; Clark, M. P.; Brekke, L. D.; Arnold, J.; Raff, D. A.

2013-12-01

Mountain snowpack is a critical storage component in the water cycle, and it provides drinking water for tens of millions of people in the Western US alone. This water store is susceptible to climate change both because warming temperatures are likely to lead to earlier melt and a temporal shift of the hydrograph, and because changing atmospheric conditions are likely to change the precipitation patterns that produce the snowpack. Current measurements of snowfall in complex terrain are limited in number due in part to the logistics of installing equipment in complex terrain. We show that this limitation leads to statistical artifacts in gridded observations of current climate including errors in precipitation season totals of a factor of two or more, increases in wet day fraction, and decreases in storm intensity. In contrast, a high-resolution numerical weather model (WRF) is able to reproduce observed precipitation patterns, leading to confidence in its predictions for areas without measurements and new observations support this. Running WRF for a future climate scenario shows substantial changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation in the mountains related to the physics of hydrometeor production and detrainment that are not captured by statistical downscaling products. The stationarity in statistical downscaling products is likely to lead to important errors in our estimation of future precipitation in complex terrain.

Physio-climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Ankit; Singh, Riddhi

2016-11-01

Understanding how a watershed's physio-climatic characteristics affect its vulnerability to environmental (climatic and land use) change is crucial for managing these complex systems. In this study, we combine the strengths of recently developed exploratory modeling frameworks and comparative hydrology to quantify the relationship between watershed's vulnerability and its physio-climatic characteristics. We propose a definition of vulnerability that can be used by a diverse range of water system managers and is useful in the presence of large uncertainties in drivers of environmental change. This definition is related to adverse climate change and land use thresholds that are quantified using a recently developed exploratory modeling approach. In this way, we estimate the vulnerability of 69 watersheds in the United States to climate and land use change. We explore definitions of vulnerability that describe average or extreme flow conditions, as well as others that are relevant from the point of view of instream organisms. In order to understand the dominant controls on vulnerability, we correlate these indices with watershed's characteristics describing its topography, geology, drainage, climate, and land use. We find that mean annual flow is more vulnerable to reductions in precipitation in watersheds with lower average soil permeability, lower baseflow index, lower forest cover, higher topographical wetness index, and vice-versa. Our results also indicate a potential mediation of climate change impacts by regional groundwater systems. By developing such relationships across a large range of watersheds, such information can potentially be used to assess the vulnerability of ungauged watersheds to uncertain environmental change.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

Climate Change Education Today in K-12: What's Happening in the Earth and Space Science Classroom?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzer, M. A.; National Earth Science Teachers Association

2011-12-01

Climate change is a highly interdisciplinary topic, involving not only multiple fields of science, but also social science and the humanities. There are many aspects of climate change science that make it particularly well-suited for exploration in the K-12 setting, including opportunities to explore the unifying processes of science such as complex systems, models, observations, change and evolution. Furthermore, this field of science offers the opportunity to observe the nature of science in action - including how scientists develop and improve their understanding through research and debate. Finally, climate change is inherently highly relevant to students - indeed, students today will need to deal with the consequences of the climate change. The science of climate change is clearly present in current science education standards, both at the National level as well as in the majority of states. Nonetheless, a significant number of teachers across the country report difficulties addressing climate change in the classroom. The National Earth Science Teachers Association has conducted several surveys of Earth and space science educators across the country over the past several years on a number of issues, including their needs and concerns, including their experience of external influences on what they teach. While the number of teachers that report external pressures to not teach climate change science are in the minority (and less than the pressure to not teach evolution and related topics), our results suggest that this pressure against climate change science in the K-12 classroom has grown over the past several years. Some teachers report being threatened by parents, being encouraged by administrators to not teach the subject, and a belief that the "two sides" of climate change should be taught. Survey results indicate that teachers in religious or politically-conservative districts are more likely to report difficulties in teaching about climate change than in other areas of the country. This presentation will provide an overview of our most recent survey results on climate change education in the K-12 Earth and space science classroom, including highlighting some of the strategies that teachers are using to bring this critically important area of science to their students.

Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Özkan, Şeyda

Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire basedmore » exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change. - Highlights: • Experts identified challenges for health and pathogen modelling under climate change. • Eighteen key challenges and associated research priorities were identified. • Increasing capacity will require improved organisation and sharing knowledge. • Better communication across the diverse topics and approaches in this field is needed.« less

Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Özkan, Şeyda; Vitali, Andrea; Lacetera, Nicola; Amon, Barbara; Bannink, André; Bartley, Dave J; Blanco-Penedo, Isabel; de Haas, Yvette; Dufrasne, Isabelle; Elliott, John; Eory, Vera; Fox, Naomi J; Garnsworthy, Phil C; Gengler, Nicolas; Hammami, Hedi; Kyriazakis, Ilias; Leclère, David; Lessire, Françoise; Macleod, Michael; Robinson, Timothy P; Ruete, Alejandro; Sandars, Daniel L; Shrestha, Shailesh; Stott, Alistair W; Twardy, Stanislaw; Vanrobays, Marie-Laure; Ahmadi, Bouda Vosough; Weindl, Isabelle; Wheelhouse, Nick; Williams, Adrian G; Williams, Hefin W; Wilson, Anthony J; Østergaard, Søren; Kipling, Richard P

2016-11-01

Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Krinner, Gerhard

2017-06-01

The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric - the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years - that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

Transitions between multiple equilibria of paleo climate: a glimpse in to the dynamics of abrupt climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Ito, Takamitsu; McGee, David; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2017-04-01

The dynamics regulating large climatic transitions such as glacial-interglacial cycles or DO events remains a puzzle. Forcings behind these transitions are not robustly identified and potential candidates (e.g. Milankovitch cycles, freshwater perturbations) often appear too weak to explain such dramatic transitions. A potential solution to this long-standing puzzle is that Earth's climate is endowed with multiple equilibrium states of global extent. Such states are commonly found in low-order or conceptual climate models, but it is unclear whether a system as complex as Earth's climate can sustain multiple equilibrium states. Here we report that multiple equilibrium states of the climate system are also possible in a complex, fully dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM with idealized Earth-like geometry, resolved weather systems and a hydrological cycle. In our model, two equilibrium states coexist for the same parameters and external forcings: a Warm climate with a small Northern hemisphere sea ice cap and a large southern one and a Cold climate with large ice caps at both poles. The dynamical states of the Warm and Cold solutions exhibit striking similarities with our present-day climate and the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, respectively. A carbon cycle model driven by the two dynamical states produces an atmospheric pCO2 draw-down of about 110 pm between the Warm and Cold states, close to Glacial-Interglacial differences found in ice cores. Mechanism controlling the existence of the multiple states and changes in the atmospheric CO2 will be briefly presented. Finally we willdescribe transition experiments from the Cold to the Warm state, focusing on the lead-lags in the system, notably between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres climates.

Climate Change in Small Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomé, Ricardo; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Brito de Azevedo, Eduardo; Teixeira, Miguel A. C.

2014-05-01

Isolated islands are especially vulnerable to climate change. But their climate is generally not well reproduced in GCMs, due to their small size and complex topography. Here, results from a new generation of climate models, forced by scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 of greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosol concentrations, established by the IPCC for its fifth report, are used to characterize the climate of the islands of Azores and Madeira, and its response to the ongoing global warming. The methodology developed here uses the new global model EC-Earth, data from ERA-Interim reanalysis and results from an extensive set of simulations with the WRF research model, using, for the first time, a dynamic approach for the regionalization of global fields at sufficiently fine resolutions, in which the effect of topographical complexity is explicitly represented. The results reviewed here suggest increases in temperature above 1C in the middle of the XXI century in Azores and Madeira, reaching values higher than 2.5C at the end of the century, accompanied by a reduction in the annual rainfall of around 10% in the Azores, which could reach 30% in Madeira. These changes are large enough to justify much broader impacts on island ecosystems and the human population. The results show the advantage of using the proposed methodology, in particular for an adequate representation of the precipitation regime in islands with complex topography, even suggesting the need for higher resolutions in future work. The WRF results are also compared against two different downscaling techniques using an air mass transformation model and a modified version of the upslope precipitation model of Smith and Barstad (2005).

Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

2014-04-01

Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

2013-12-01

Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

2012-05-27

Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-04-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing.

PubMed

Sullivan, Martin J P; Thomsen, Meredith A; Suttle, K B

2016-04-01

Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short-term responses to climate variability and longer-term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade-long experiment, we compare effects of short-term and long-term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long-term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short-term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long-term trajectories from short-term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities.

PubMed

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen I; Grace, James B

2010-11-09

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951-2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500-1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500-2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Grace, James B.

2010-01-01

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951–2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500–1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500–2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

2008-12-01

Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

Storytelling and Technology Combine to Create Student Engagement Around Locally Relevant Climate Change Topics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckey, E.; Littrell-Baez, M.; Tayne, K.; Gold, A. U.; Okochi, C.; Oonk, D.; Smith, L. K.; Lynds, S. E.

2017-12-01

Storytelling is a powerful way for students to engage with science topics, particularly topics that may initially seem too broad to impact their lives, like climate change. Empowering students to telling a personal story about climate change's effects and helping them turn their story into a film is powerful approach. Especially because these films can be shared globally and gives students a voice around a complex topic like climate change. Here, we present impacts of the Lens on Climate Change program (LOCC), which engages middle and high school students in producing short films featuring how climate change impacts their communities. LOCC is offered as an intensive week-long summer program and as an extracurricular program during the school year. The majority of student participants are recruited from historically underserved communities and come from ethnical and socioeconomically diverse backgrounds. Survey data revealed that LOCC participants had a significant increase in their belief in the reality of climate change after participation in their program relative to students in a demographically-matched control groups. Furthermore, participant responses on reflection surveys given after the program included statements that suggest that students had begun thinking more deeply about climate change as a serious global challenge and felt empowered to take actions to mitigate climate change and/or spread awareness in their communities. The majority of students in the LOCC program also reported being very proud of their film and intended to share their film with their friends and family. Additionally, we explored the long-term impacts of participation by interviewing students a year after the program and offered them the opportunity to make a subsequent film. Students in this "advanced group" reported being more aware of climate change in their community following making their films and were enthusiastic to increase their filmmaking skills through producing additional films. We suggest that the combination of storytelling and filmmaking gives students a means to become part of the climate change narrative and to engage in thinking about and acting on climate change at a broader level than they might otherwise be comfortable doing.

Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

PubMed

Jones, R A C

2016-01-01

Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future Arctic Research: Integrative Approaches to Scientific and Methodological Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmale, Julia; Lisowska, Maja; Smieszek, Malgorzata

2013-08-01

Climate change has significant consequences for both the natural environment and the socioeconomics in the Arctic. The complex interplay between the changing atmosphere, cryosphere, and ocean is responsible for a multitude of feedbacks and cascading effects leading to changes in the marine and terrestrial ecosystems, the sea ice cycle, and atmospheric circulation patterns. The warming Arctic has also become a region of economic interest as shipping, natural resource exploitation, and tourism are becoming achievable and lucrative with declining sea ice. Such climatic and anthropogenic developments are leading to profound changes in the Arctic, its people, and their cultural heritage.

A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

2014-01-01

We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

Climate Impacts of Fire-Induced Land-Surface Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hao, X.; Qu, J. J.

2017-12-01

One of the consequences of wildfires is the changes in land-surface properties such as removal of vegetation. This will change local and regional climate through modifying the land-air heat and water fluxes. This study investigates mechanism by developing and a parameterization of fire-induced land-surface property changes and applying it to modeling of the climate impacts of large wildfires in the United States. Satellite remote sensing was used to quantitatively evaluate the land-surface changes from large fires provided from the Monitoring Trends in Burning Severity (MTBS) dataset. It was found that the changes in land-surface properties induced by fires are very complex, depending on vegetation type and coverage, climate type, season and time after fires. The changes in LAI are remarkable only if the actual values meet a threshold. Large albedo changes occur in winter for fires in cool climate regions. The signs are opposite between the first post-fire year and the following years. Summer day-time temperature increases after fires, while nigh-time temperature changes in various patterns. The changes are larger in forested lands than shrub / grassland lands. In the parameterization scheme, the detected post-fire changes are decomposed into trends using natural exponential functions and fluctuations of periodic variations with the amplitudes also determined by natural exponential functions. The final algorithm is a combination of the trends, periods, and amplitude functions. This scheme is used with Earth system models to simulate the local and regional climate effects of wildfires.

Climate Variability and Human Migration in the Netherlands, 1865–1937

PubMed Central

Jennings, Julia A.; Gray, Clark L.

2014-01-01

Human migration is frequently cited as a potential social outcome of climate change and variability, and these effects are often assumed to be stronger in the past when economies were less developed and markets more localized. Yet, few studies have used historical data to test the relationship between climate and migration directly. In addition, the results of recent studies that link demographic and climate data are not consistent with conventional narratives of displacement responses. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate data that cover the same period, we examine the effects of climate variability on migration using event history models. Only internal moves in the later period and for certain social groups are associated with negative climate conditions, and the strength and direction of the observed effects change over time. International moves decrease with extreme rainfall, suggesting that the complex relationships between climate and migration that have been observed for contemporary populations extend into the nineteenth century. PMID:25937689

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region, Washington

Treesearch

Crystal L. Raymond; David L. Peterson; Regina M. Rochefort

2014-01-01

The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership (NCAP) is a science-management partnership consisting of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Mount Baker-Snoqualmie and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forests and Pacific Northwest Research Station; North Cascades National Park Complex; Mount Rainier National Park; and University of Washington Climate Impacts Group....

Q-BIC3 - A Québec-Bavarian international collaboration for adapting regional watershed management to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf

2010-05-01

Adapting to the impacts of climate change is certainly one of the major challenges in water resources management over the next decades. Adaptation to climate change risks is most crucial in this domain, since projected increase in mean air temperature in combination with an expected increase in the temporal variability of precipitation patterns will contribute to pressure on current water availability, allocation and management practices. The latter often involve the utilization of valuable infrastructure, such as dams, reservoirs and water intakes, for which adaptation options must by developed over long-term and often dynamic planning horizons. Research to establish novel methodologies for improved adaptation to climate change is thus very important and only beginning to emerge in regional watershed management. The presented project Q-BIC³, funded by the Bavarian Minstry for the Environment and the Québec Ministère du Développement économique, de l'Innovation et de l'Exportation, aims to develop and apply a newly designed spectrum of tools to support the improved assessment of adaptation options to climate change in regional watershed management. It addresses in particular selected study sites in Québec and Bavaria. The following key issues have been prioritized within Q-BIC³: i) The definition of potential adaptation options in the context of climate change for pre-targeted water management key issues using a subsequent and logical chain of modelling tools (climate, hydrological and water management modeling tools) ii) The definition of an approach that accounts for hydrological projection uncertainties in the search for potential adaptation options in the context of climate change iii) The investigation of the required complexity in hydrological models to estimate climate change impacts and to develop specific adaptation options for Québec and Bavaria watersheds. iv) The development and prototyping of a regionally transferable and modular modelling system for integrated watershed management under climate change conditions. The study sites under investigation, namely the Haut-Saint Francois and Gatineau watersheds in Québec and the Isar and Regnitz catchments in Bavaria, are under heavy anthropogenic use. Intense dam and reservoir operations and even water transfer systems are in place to satisfy multi-purpose demands on available water resources. These are imposing extreme modifications to the natural flow regimes. In the first phase of the project, climatic forcing, stemming from an ensemble of selected GCM and RCM runs, is applied to a variety of hydrological models with different complexity. The derived projections of future hydrological conditions serve to investigate, whether current operation rules and/or existing infrastructure needs to be adapted to a changing environment. First findings demonstrate the large uncertainties associated to the model chain outputs, but also indicate that related adaptation is indispensable to meet the challenges of the rapidly changing man-environment systems.

Learning and Teaching Climate Science: The Perils of Consensus Knowledge Using Agnotology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legates, David R.; Soon, Willie; Briggs, William M.

2013-08-01

Agnotology has been defined in a variety of ways including "the study of ignorance and its cultural production" and "the study of how and why ignorance or misunderstanding exists." More recently, however, it has been posited that agnotology should be used in the teaching of climate change science. But rather than use agnotology to enhance an understanding of the complicated nature of the complex Earth's climate, the particular aim is to dispel alternative viewpoints to the so-called consensus science. One-sided presentations of controversial topics have little place in the classroom as they serve only to stifle debate and do not further knowledge and enhance critical thinking. Students must understand not just what is known and why it is known to be true but also what remains unknown and where the limitations on scientific understanding lie. Fact recitation coupled with demonizing any position or person who disagrees with a singularly-derived conclusion has no place in education. Instead, all sides must be covered in highly debatable and important topics such as climate change, because authoritarian science never will have all the answers to such complex problems.

Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania.

PubMed

Mweya, Clement N; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

2017-07-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

Climate change impacts on food system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change.

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Woodruff, Rosalie

2006-12-01

The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the longterm and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events.

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Han, Jingcheng; Fan, Yurui

2016-04-01

Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can we forecast the effects of climate change on entomophagous biological control agents?

PubMed

Aguilar-Fenollosa, Ernestina; Jacas, Josep A

2014-06-01

The worldwide climate has been changing rapidly over the past decades. Air temperatures have been increasing in most regions and will probably continue to rise for most of the present century, regardless of any mitigation policy put in place. Although increased herbivory from enhanced biomass production and changes in plant quality are generally accepted as a consequence of global warming, the eventual status of any pest species will mostly depend on the relative effects of climate change on its own versus its natural enemies' complex. Because a bottom-up amplification effect often occurs in trophic webs subjected to any kind of disturbance, natural enemies are expected to suffer the effects of climate change to a greater extent than their phytophagous hosts/preys. A deeper understanding of the genotypic diversity of the populations of natural enemies and their target pests will allow an informed reaction to climate change. New strategies for the selection of exotic natural enemies and their release and establishment will have to be adopted. Conservation biological control will probably become the keystone for the successful management of these biological control agents. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

The World Climate Exercise: Is (Simulated) Experience Our Best Teacher?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rath, K.; Rooney-varga, J. N.; Jones, A.; Johnston, E.; Sterman, J.

2015-12-01

Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a powerful, active learning tool that has strong potential to foster deep learning about climate change.

Climate Literacy in the Classroom: Supporting Teachers in the Transition to NGSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, M. J. B.; Merrill, J.; Harcourt, P.; Petrone, C.; Shea, N.; Mead, H.

2014-12-01

Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a powerful, active learning tool that has strong potential to foster deep learning about climate change.

Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dana, G. L.; Lancaster, N.; Mensing, S. A.; Piechota, T.

2008-12-01

The Great Basin is characterized by complex basin and range topography, arid to semiarid climate, and a history of sensitivity to climate change. Mountain areas comprise about 10% of the landscape, yet are the areas of highest precipitation and generate 85% of groundwater recharge and most surface runoff. These characteristics provide an ideal natural laboratory to study the effects of climate change. The Nevada system of Higher Education, including the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the University of Nevada, Reno, the Desert Research Institute, and Nevada State College have begun a five year research and infrastructure building program, funded by the National Science Foundation Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (NSF EPSCoR) with the vision "to create a statewide interdisciplinary program and virtual climate change center that will stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach on the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem resources (especially water) and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders." Six major strategies are proposed to develop infrastructure needs and attain our vision: 1) Develop a capability to model climate change at a regional and sub-regional scale(Climate Modeling Component) 2) Analyze effects on ecosystems and disturbance regimes (Ecological Change Component) 3) Quantify and model changes in water balance and resources under climate change (Water Resources Component) 4) Assess effects on human systems and enhance policy making and outreach to communities and stakeholders (Policy, Decision-Making, and Outreach Component) 5) Develop a data portal and software to support interdisciplinary research via integration of data from observational networks and modeling (Cyberinfrastructure Component) and 6) Train teachers and students at all levels and provide public outreach in climate change issues (Education Component). Two new climate observational transects will be established across Great Basin Ranges, one anticipated on a mountain range in southern Nevada and the second to be located in north-central Nevada. Climatic, hydrologic and ecological data from these transects will be downloaded into high capacity data storage units and made available to researchers through creation of the Nevada climate change portal. Our research will aim to answer two interdisciplinary science questions key to understanding the effects of future climate change on Great Basin mountain ecosystems and the potential management strategies for responding to these changes: 1) How will climate change affect water resources and linked ecosystem resources and human systems? And 2) How will climate change affect disturbance regimes (e.g., wildland fires, invasive species, insect outbreaks, droughts) and linked systems? Infrastructure developed through this project will provide new interdisciplinary capability to detect, analyze, and model effects of regional climate change in mountainous regions of the west and provide a major contribution to existing climate change research and monitoring networks.

Multiple External Representations: Bridges or Barriers to Climate Literacy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzer, M. A.

2012-12-01

The continuous barrage of science related headlines and other media sources warn us of the need to heed the imperative for a science literate society. Climate change, genetics, evolution are a few of the charged and complex scientific topics requiring public understanding of the science to fully grasp the enormous reach of these topics in our daily lives. For instance, our global climate is changing as evidenced by the analysis of Earth observing satellite data, in-situ data, and proxy data records. How we as a global society decide to address the needs associated with a changing climate are contingent upon having a population that understands how the climate system functions, and can therefore make informed decisions on how to mitigate the effects of climate change. Communication in science relies heavily on the use of multiple representations to support the claims presented. However, these multiple representations require spatial and temporal skills to interpret information portrayed in them, and how a person engages with complex text and the multiple representations varies with the level of expertise one has with the content area. For example, a climatologist will likely identify anomalous data more quickly than a novice when presented with a graph of temperature change over time. These representations are used throughout textbooks as well as popular reading materials such as newspapers and magazines without much consideration for how a reader engages with complex text, diagrams, images, and graphs. If the ability to read and interact with scientific text found in popular literature is perceived as a worthy goal of scientific literacy, then it is imperative that readers understand the relationship between multiple representations and the text while interacting with the science literature they are reading. For example, in climate related articles multiple representations not only support the content, but they are part of the content not to be overlooked by a reader. Climatologists recognize the wealth of data and content found in these representations and therefore find themselves in a position where they can effectively interact with the author and their claims. This expert ability to seamlessly integrate text with the associated representations is at one end of the continuum of scientific text comprehension, but what abilities define a novice and those in between expert and novice in this continuum of scientific text comprehension? This talk will describe an ongoing research project with the overarching goal to establish the balance of this continuum in order to identify scaffolds that will assist non expert readers negotiate meaning from complex scientific text inclusive of multiple representations found in popular literature in climatology. It will inform those creating data representations on how best to create the representations so that claims and causal relationships may be derived from the literature or media source.

Impact of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Sanganyado, Edmond; Teta, Charles; Masiri, Busani

2018-03-01

Recent studies show cultural worldviews are a key determinant of environmental risk perceptions; thus, they could influence climate change adaptation strategies. African traditional worldviews encourage harmony between humans and the environment through a complex metaphysical belief system transmitted through folklore, taboos, and traditional knowledge. However, African traditional worldviews hold a belief in traditional gods that was shown to have a low connectedness to nature and a low willingness to change. In Makueni District, Kenya, 45% of agropastoralists surveyed believed drought was god's plan and could not be changed. In contrast, traditional knowledge, which is shaped by African traditional worldviews, is often used to frame adaptive strategies such as migration, changing modes of production, and planting different crop varieties. Furthermore, traditional knowledge has been used as a complement to science in areas where meteorological data was unavailable. However, the role of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaption remains understudied. Hence, there is a need to systematically establish the influence of African traditional worldviews on climate change risk perception, development of adaptive strategies, and policy formulation and implementation. In this commentary, we discuss the potential impacts of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:189-193. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Alpine treeline of western North America: Linking organism-to-landscape dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malanson, George P.; Butler, David R.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Walsh, Stephen J; Tomback, Diana F.; Daniels, Lori D.; Resler, Lynn M.; Smith, William K.; Weiss, Daniel J.; Peterson, David L.; Bunn, Andrew G.; Hiemstra, Christopher A.; Liptzin, Daniel; Bourgeron, Patrick S.; Shen, Zehao; Millar, Constance I.

2007-01-01

Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotone—seed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree dieback—depend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind and snow, and so develop positive and negative feedback loops that create these microsites. As a result, complex landscape patterns are generated at multiple spatial scales. Although these mechanistic processes are fundamentally the same for all forest-tundra ecotones across western North America, factors such as prior climate, underlying geology and geomorphology, and genetic constraints of dominant tree species lead to geographic differences in the responses of particular ecotones to climate change.

Getting The Picture: Our Changing Climate- A new learning tool for climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yager, K.; Balog, J. D.

2014-12-01

Earth Vision Trust (EVT), founded by James Balog- photographer and scientist, has developed a free, online, multimedia climate science education tool for students and educators. Getting The Picture (GTP) creates a new learning experience, drawing upon powerful archives of Extreme Ice Survey's unique photographs and time-lapse videos of changing glaciers around the world. GTP combines the latest in climate science through interactive tools that make the basic scientific tenets of climate science accessible and easy to understand. The aim is to use a multidisciplinary approach to encourage critical thinking about the way our planet is changing due to anthropogenic activities, and to inspire students to find their own voice regarding our changing climate The essence of this resource is storytelling through the use of inspiring images, field expedition notes and dynamic multimedia tools. EVT presents climate education in a new light, illustrating the complex interaction between humans and nature through their Art + Science approach. The overarching goal is to educate and empower young people to take personal action. GTP is aligned with national educational and science standards (NGSS, CCSS, Climate Literacy) so it may be used in conventional classrooms as well as education centers, museum kiosks or anywhere with Internet access. Getting The Picture extends far beyond traditional learning to provide an engaging experience for students, educators and all those who wish to explore the latest in climate science.

Climate change can cause complex responses in Baltic Sea macroalgae: A systematic review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takolander, Antti; Cabeza, Mar; Leskinen, Elina

2017-05-01

Estuarine macroalgae are important primary producers in aquatic ecosystems, and often foundation species providing structurally complex habitat. Climate change alters many abiotic factors that affect their long-term persistence and distribution. Here, we review the existing scientific literature on the tolerance of key macroalgal species in the Baltic Sea, the world's largest brackish water body. Elevated temperature is expected to intensify coastal eutrophication, further promoting growth of opportunistic, filamentous species, especially green algae, which are often species associated with intensive filamentous algal blooms. Declining salinities will push the distributions of marine species towards south, which may alter the Baltic Sea community compositions towards a more limnic state. Together with increasing eutrophication trends this may cause losses in marine-originating foundation species such as Fucus, causing severe biodiversity impacts. Experimental results on ocean acidification effects on macroalgae are mixed, with only few studies conducted in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that climate change can alter the structure and functioning of macroalgal ecosystems especially in the northern Baltic coastal areas, and can potentially act synergistically with eutrophication. We briefly discuss potential adaptation measures.

Hydro-meteorological risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Sava River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brilly, Mitja; Šraj, Mojca; Kryžanowski, Andrej

2017-04-01

The Sava River Basin covered the teritory of several countries. There were, in past thirty years, several flood hazard events with almost hundred years return period. Parts of the basin suffer by severe droughts also. In the presentation we covered questions of: • Flood hazard in complex hydrology structure • Landslide and flush flood in mountainous regions • Floods on karst polje • Flood risk management in the complex international and hydrological condition. • Impact of man made structures: hydropower storages, inundation ponds, river regulation, alternate streams, levees system, pumping stations, Natura 2000 areas etc. • How to manage droughts in the international river basin The basin is well covered by information and managed by international the SRB Commission (http://savacommission.org/) that could help. We develop study for climate change impact on floods on entire river basin financing by UNECE. There is also study provide climate change impact on the water management provide by World Bank and on which we take part. Recently is out call by world bank for study »Flood risk management plan for the SRB«.

Acid rain, air pollution, and tree growth in southeastern New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, L.J.

1982-01-01

Whether dendroecological analyses could be used to detect changes in the relationship of tree growth to climate that might have resulted from chronic exposure to components of the acid rain-air pollution complex was determined. Tree-ring indices of white pine (Pinus strobus L.), eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Cart.), pitch pine (Pinus rigida Mill.), and chestnut oak (Quercus prinus L.) were regressed against orthogonally transformed values of temperature and precipitation in order to derive a response-function relationship. Results of the regression analyses for three time periods, 1901–1920, 1926–1945, and 1954–1973 suggest that the relationship of tree growth to climate has been altered. Statistical tests of the temperature and precipitation data suggest that this change was nonclimatic. Temporally, the shift in growth response appears to correspond with the suspected increase in acid rain and air pollution in the Shawangunk Mountain area of southeastern New York in the early 1950's. This change could be the result of physiological stress induced by components of the acid rain-air pollution complex, causing climatic conditions to be more limiting to tree growth.

A climate for speciation: rapid spatial diversification within the Sorex cinereus complex of shrews

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Speer, Kelly A.; Demboski, John R.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Cook, Joseph A.

2012-01-01

The cyclic climate regime of the late Quaternary caused dramatic environmental change at high latitudes. Although these events may have been brief in periodicity from an evolutionary standpoint, multiple episodes of allopatry and divergence have been implicated in rapid radiations of a number of organisms. Shrews of the Sorex cinereus complex have long challenged taxonomists due to similar morphology and parapatric geographic ranges. Here, multi-locus phylogenetic and demographic assessments using a coalescent framework were combined to investigate spatiotemporal evolution of 13 nominal species with a widespread distribution throughout North America and across Beringia into Siberia. For these species, we first test a hypothesis of recent differentiation in response to Pleistocene climate versus more ancient divergence that would coincide with pre-Pleistocene perturbations. We then investigate the processes driving diversification over multiple continents. Our genetic analyses highlight novel diversity within these morphologically conserved mammals and clarify relationships between geographic distribution and evolutionary history. Demography within and among species indicates both regional stability and rapid expansion. Ancestral ecological differentiation coincident with early cladogenesis within the complex enabled alternating and repeated episodes of allopatry and expansion where successive glacial and interglacial phases each promoted divergence. The Sorex cinereus complex constitutes a valuable model for future comparative assessments of evolution in response to cyclic environmental change.

Responses to historical climate change identify contemporary threats to diversity in Dodecatheon.

PubMed

Oberle, Brad; Schaal, Barbara A

2011-04-05

Anthropogenic climate change may threaten many species with extinction. However, species at risk today survived global climate change in recent geological history. Describing how habitat tracking and adaptation allowed species to survive warming since the end of the Pleistocene can indicate the relative importance of dispersal and natural selection during climate change. By taking this historical perspective, we can identify how contemporary climate change could interfere with these mechanisms and threaten the most vulnerable species. We focused on a group of closely related plant species in the genus Dodecatheon (Primulaceae) in eastern North America. Two rare species (Dodecatheon amethystinum and Dodecatheon frenchii) that are endemic to patchy cool cliffs may be glacial relicts whose ranges constricted following the last glacial maximum. Alternatively, these species may be extreme ecotypes of a single widespread species (Dodecatheon meadia) that quickly adapted to microclimatic differences among habitats. We test support for these alternative scenarios by combining ecophysiological and population genetic data at a regional scale. An important ecophysiological trait distinguishes rare species from D. meadia, but only a few northern populations of D. amethystinum are genetically distinctive. These relict populations indicate that habitat tracking did occur with historical climate change. However, relatively stronger evidence for isolation by distance and admixture suggests that local adaptation and genetic introgression have been at least as important. The complex response of Dodecatheon to historical climate change suggests that contemporary conservation efforts should accommodate evolutionary processes, in some cases by restoring genetic connectivity between ecologically differentiated populations.

Contemplating the Future: Building Student Resilience in Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change research has largely focused on the biophysical, economic, and political aspects of the phenomenon, its projected impacts, and the possibilities for adaptation (Carey et al. 2014; Castree et al. 2014). In the classroom, too, climate change is generally presented as a scientific, technological, political, and economic challenge. However, defining climate change as physical challenge, divorced from its cultural causes and responses, forecloses some pathways of inquiry and limits the possibilities for adaptation (Adger et al. 2013). Recent perspectives by the environmental historian Mark Carey and colleagues (2014) and by the geographer Noel Castree and colleagues (2014) contend that ethnographic, narrative, social scientific, and humanistic insights are necessary additions to the climate change policy process and can contribute to deliberate, resilient responses to climate change. Among the humanistic insights needed are strategies and practices to maintain fortitude and persistence in the midst of dispiriting ecological trends. Students facing the "gloom and doom" of climate change data in environmental studies courses can experience negative states of mind such as denial, despair, burnout, and grief. Emerging research, however, demonstrates how contemplative practice can shift consciousness and promote resilience. Contemplative practices are those that consciously direct calm, focused attention. Such practices can build internal resilience, by promoting a greater sense of calm and well-being, decreasing stress, and sharpening focus and concentration. In addition, contemplative practices improve relationships with other people, through increasing compassion and flexibility in thinking. They also strengthen relationships with the surrounding world by increasing our ability to question, explore, and cope with rapid change and complexity. This presentation provides a context for incorporating contemplative practices, including mindfulness exercises, creative expression, and meditation, into the environmental studies classroom, and discusses how these practices can cultivate well-being and resilience in the face of climate change.

Climate Change and Food Security: Health Impacts in Developed Countries

PubMed Central

Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R.; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W.

2012-01-01

Background: Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. Objectives: We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Methods: Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Results: Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Conclusions: Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and respond to nutritional and safety issues that arise. PMID:23124134

Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

PubMed

Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

2012-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and respond to nutritional and safety issues that arise.

Facing the limit of resilience: perceptions of climate change among reindeer herding Sami in Sweden.

PubMed

Furberg, Maria; Evengård, Birgitta; Nilsson, Maria

2011-01-01

The Arctic area is a part of the globe where the increase in global temperature has had the earliest noticeable effect and indigenous peoples, including the Swedish reindeer herding Sami, are amongst the first to be affected by these changes. To explore the experiences and perceptions of climate change among Swedish reindeer herding Sami. In-depth interviews with 14 Swedish reindeer herding Sami were performed, with purposive sampling. The interviews focused on the herders experiences of climate change, observed consequences and thoughts about this. The interviews were analysed using content analysis. One core theme emerged from the interviews: facing the limit of resilience. Swedish reindeer-herding Sami perceive climate change as yet another stressor in their daily struggle. They have experienced severe and more rapidly shifting, unstable weather with associated changes in vegetation and alterations in the freeze-thaw cycle, all of which affect reindeer herding. The forecasts about climate change from authorities and scientists have contributed to stress and anxiety. Other societal developments have lead to decreased flexibility that obstructs adaptation. Some adaptive strategies are discordant with the traditional life of reindeer herding, and there is a fear among the Sami of being the last generation practising traditional reindeer herding. The study illustrates the vulnerable situation of the reindeer herders and that climate change impact may have serious consequences for the trade and their overall way of life. Decision makers on all levels, both in Sweden and internationally, need improved insights into these complex issues to be able to make adequate decisions about adaptive climate change strategies.

Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

PubMed Central

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

2018-01-01

Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links. PMID:29670057

Quantifying Impacts of Land-use and Land Cover Change in a Changing Climate at the Regional Scale using an Integrated Earth System Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.

2016-12-01

Earth System models (ESMs) are effective tools for investigating the water-energy-food system interactions under climate change. In this presentation, I will introduce research efforts at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory towards quantifying impacts of LULCC on the water-energy-food nexus in a changing climate using an integrated regional Earth system modeling framework: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA). Two studies will be discussed to showcase the capability of PRIMA: (1) quantifying changes in terrestrial hydrology over the Conterminous US (CONUS) from 2005 to 2095 using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven by high-resolution downscaled climate and land cover products from PRIMA, which was designed for assessing the impacts of and potential responses to climate and anthropogenic changes at regional scales; (2) applying CLM over the CONUS to provide the first county-scale model validation in simulating crop yields and assessing associated impacts on the water and energy budgets using CLM. The studies demonstrate the benefits of incorporating and coupling human activities into complex ESMs, and critical needs to account for the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC in climate impacts studies, and in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies at a scale meaningful for decision-making. Future directions in quantifying LULCC impacts on the water-energy-food nexus under a changing climate, as well as feedbacks among climate, energy production and consumption, and natural/managed ecosystems using an Integrated Multi-scale, Multi-sector Modeling framework will also be discussed.

Repeated short climatic change affects the epidermal differentiation program and leads to matrix remodeling in a human organotypic skin model.

PubMed

Boutrand, Laetitia-Barbollat; Thépot, Amélie; Muther, Charlotte; Boher, Aurélie; Robic, Julie; Guéré, Christelle; Vié, Katell; Damour, Odile; Lamartine, Jérôme

2017-01-01

Human skin is subject to frequent changes in ambient temperature and humidity and needs to cope with these environmental modifications. To decipher the molecular response of human skin to repeated climatic change, a versatile model of skin equivalent subject to "hot-wet" (40°C, 80% relative humidity [RH]) or "cold-dry" (10°C, 40% RH) climatic stress repeated daily was used. To obtain an exhaustive view of the molecular mechanisms elicited by climatic change, large-scale gene expression DNA microarray analysis was performed and modulated function was determined by bioinformatic annotation. This analysis revealed several functions, including epidermal differentiation and extracellular matrix, impacted by repeated variations in climatic conditions. Some of these molecular changes were confirmed by histological examination and protein expression. Both treatments (hot-wet and cold-dry) reduced the expression of genes encoding collagens, laminin, and proteoglycans, suggesting a profound remodeling of the extracellular matrix. Strong induction of the entire family of late cornified envelope genes after cold-dry exposure, confirmed at protein level, was also observed. These changes correlated with an increase in epidermal differentiation markers such as corneodesmosin and a thickening of the stratum corneum, indicating possible implementation of defense mechanisms against dehydration. This study for the first time reveals the complex pattern of molecular response allowing adaption of human skin to repeated change in its climatic environment.

A new approach to the renewable energy-growth nexus: evidence from the USA.

PubMed

Gozgor, Giray

2018-06-01

The climate change is one of the leading problems in the today's world. The rise of the renewable energy meets the sustainable growth objectives since it can decelerate the climate change. For this purpose, this paper investigates the relationship between the renewable energy consumption and the economic growth in the United States (USA). Theoretically, the paper constructs the growth model that captures the effects of the economic complexity indicator as a measure of capabilities and productivity for exporting the "complex" (high value-added) products. Empirically, the paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimations and observes that both the economic complexity and the renewable energy consumption lead to a higher rate of economic growth in the USA for the period from 1965 to 2016. The paper also discusses the potential policy implications of the results for achieving the sustainable growth objectives.

Climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases: The butterfly effect.

PubMed

Dantas-Torres, Filipe

2015-12-01

We have killed wild animals for obtaining food and decimated forests for many reasons. Nowadays, we are burning fossil fuels as never before and even exploring petroleum in deep waters. The impact of these activities on our planet is now visible to the naked eye and the debate on climate change is warming up in scientific meetings and becoming a priority on the agenda of both scientists and policy decision makers. On the occasion of the Impact of Environmental Changes on Infectious Diseases (IECID) meeting, held in the 2015 in Sitges, Spain, I was invited to give a keynote talk on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. The aim of the present article is to logically extend my rationale presented on the occasion of the IECID meeting. This article is not intended to be an exhaustive review, but an essay on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. It may be anticipated that warmer winters and extended autumn and spring seasons will continue to drive the expansion of the distribution of some tick species (e.g., Ixodes ricinus) to northern latitudes and to higher altitudes. Nonetheless, further studies are advocated to improve our understanding of the complex interactions between landscape, climate, host communities (biodiversity), tick demography, pathogen diversity, human demography, human behaviour, economics, and politics, also considering all ecological processes (e.g., trophic cascades) and other possible interacting effects (e.g., mutual effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions and increased deforestation rates). The multitude of variables and interacting factors involved, and their complexity and dynamism, make tick-borne transmission systems beyond (current) human comprehension. That is, perhaps, the main reason for our inability to precisely predict new epidemics of vector-borne diseases in general.

Climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases: The butterfly effect

PubMed Central

Dantas-Torres, Filipe

2015-01-01

We have killed wild animals for obtaining food and decimated forests for many reasons. Nowadays, we are burning fossil fuels as never before and even exploring petroleum in deep waters. The impact of these activities on our planet is now visible to the naked eye and the debate on climate change is warming up in scientific meetings and becoming a priority on the agenda of both scientists and policy decision makers. On the occasion of the Impact of Environmental Changes on Infectious Diseases (IECID) meeting, held in the 2015 in Sitges, Spain, I was invited to give a keynote talk on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. The aim of the present article is to logically extend my rationale presented on the occasion of the IECID meeting. This article is not intended to be an exhaustive review, but an essay on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. It may be anticipated that warmer winters and extended autumn and spring seasons will continue to drive the expansion of the distribution of some tick species (e.g., Ixodes ricinus) to northern latitudes and to higher altitudes. Nonetheless, further studies are advocated to improve our understanding of the complex interactions between landscape, climate, host communities (biodiversity), tick demography, pathogen diversity, human demography, human behaviour, economics, and politics, also considering all ecological processes (e.g., trophic cascades) and other possible interacting effects (e.g., mutual effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions and increased deforestation rates). The multitude of variables and interacting factors involved, and their complexity and dynamism, make tick-borne transmission systems beyond (current) human comprehension. That is, perhaps, the main reason for our inability to precisely predict new epidemics of vector-borne diseases in general. PMID:26835253

A Semi-empirical Model of the Stratosphere in the Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sodergren, A. H.; Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.; Meinshausen, M.; McDonald, A.

2014-12-01

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) currently used to project changes in Antarctic ozone are extremely computationally demanding. CCM projections are uncertain due to lack of knowledge of future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone depleting substances (ODSs), as well as parameterizations within the CCMs that have weakly constrained tuning parameters. While projections should be based on an ensemble of simulations, this is not currently possible due to the complexity of the CCMs. An inexpensive but realistic approach to simulate changes in stratospheric ozone, and its coupling to the climate system, is needed as a complement to CCMs. A simple climate model (SCM) can be used as a fast emulator of complex atmospheric-ocean climate models. If such an SCM includes a representation of stratospheric ozone, the evolution of the global ozone layer can be simulated for a wide range of GHG and ODS emissions scenarios. MAGICC is an SCM used in previous IPCC reports. In the current version of the MAGICC SCM, stratospheric ozone changes depend only on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC). In this work, MAGICC is extended to include an interactive stratospheric ozone layer using a semi-empirical model of ozone responses to CO2and EESC, with changes in ozone affecting the radiative forcing in the SCM. To demonstrate the ability of our new, extended SCM to generate projections of global changes in ozone, tuning parameters from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and 10 carbon cycle models (to create an ensemble of 190 simulations) have been used to generate probability density functions of the dates of return of stratospheric column ozone to 1960 and 1980 levels for different latitudes.

Advancing Climate Change Education and Youth Empowerment: Preparing Our Communities with the Skills, Knowledge, and Passion to Push for and Develop Innovative Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F., III; Johnston, E.; Rooney-varga, J. N.; Qusba, L.; Staveloz, W.; Poppleton, K.; Cloyd, E. T.; Kretser, J.; Bozuwa, J.; Edkins, M. T.

2016-12-01

Today's youth are the first generation to come of age amid rapid climate change, and they have the most at stake in how society responds to it. Climate change will bring economic and environmental challenges as well as opportunities, and citizens who understand the issues at stake will be better prepared to respond. Climate education is a necessary foundation for them to understand and help tackle the complex issue of climate change. Many will become leaders with the skills, knowledge, and passion to push for and develop innovative solutions. As such, this topic requires interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches from a professionally diverse group of experts to effectively build the solid foundation for a low carbon and sustainable economy. Educators from all disciplines need to be enlisted to contribute their talents in building students knowledge and skills to limit human-induced climate change while being prepared for the projected impacts that will continue, and it will accelerate significantly if global emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase. This presentation will discuss the new youth and educator engagement partnerships that developed to achieve ways of addressing the problems and opportunities resulting from climate change. We will describe how the partnerships are helping lift up and raise the profile of effective programs that enable transdisciplinary solutions to societal issues. The #Youth4Climate and #Teach4Climate social media campaigns were organized by a flotilla of federal and non-federal partners to inspire young people around the world to take actions on climate change and inspire teachers to prepare students to be part of the solutions to climate change. The largest one, the #Youth4Climate campaign for COP21 youth engagement had over 33 million impressions and opened a discussion for all to join with youth for climate actions at COP21. Each of these three social media campaigns had a simple ask, give young people a voice and prepare them to succeed in doing something about climate change. We are excited to have new partners join forces and support young people, giving them a voice and an opportunity to lead in Paris and beyond. We know the solutions are here, and are committed to working together to build a climate-friendly world. Join us with #Youth4Climate and #Teach4Climate.

LCMS landscape change monitoring system—results from an information needs assessment

Treesearch

Kevin Megown; Brian Schwind; Don Evans; Mark Finco

2015-01-01

Understanding changes in land use and land cover over space and time provides an important means to evaluate complex interactions between human and biophysical systems, to project future conditions, and to design mitigation and adaptive management strategies. Assessing and monitoring landscape change is evolving into a foundational element of climate change adaptation...

Salmon and the Adaptive Capacity of Nimiipuu (Nez Perce) Culture to Cope with Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colombi, Benedict J.

2012-01-01

Change due to natural disturbances and disasters, population growth and decline, economic crises, and environmental and climate change creates significant cultural challenges. Rapid change and the transformation it brings also involve complex relationships between sovereign tribes, resources, and the global system. This article explores how salmon…

Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Triatoma brasiliensis complex is a monophyletic group, comprising three species, one of which includes two subspecific taxa, distributed across 12 Brazilian states, in the caatinga and cerrado biomes. Members of the complex are diverse in terms of epidemiological importance, morphology, biology, ecology, and genetics. Triatoma b. brasiliensis is the most disease-relevant member of the complex in terms of epidemiology, extensive distribution, broad feeding preferences, broad ecological distribution, and high rates of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi; consequently, it is considered the principal vector of Chagas disease in northeastern Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distributions of all members of the complex, and evaluated the potential for suitable adjacent areas to be colonized; we also present first evaluations of potential for climate change-mediated distributional shifts. Models were developed using the GARP and Maxent algorithms. Results Models for three members of the complex (T. b. brasiliensis, N = 332; T. b. macromelasoma, N = 35; and T. juazeirensis, N = 78) had significant distributional predictivity; however, models for T. sherlocki and T. melanica, both with very small sample sizes (N = 7), did not yield predictions that performed better than random. Model projections onto future-climate scenarios indicated little broad-scale potential for change in the potential distribution of the complex through 2050. Conclusions This study suggests that T. b. brasiliensis is the member of the complex with the greatest distributional potential to colonize new areas: overall; however, the distribution of the complex appears relatively stable. These analyses offer key information to guide proactive monitoring and remediation activities to reduce risk of Chagas disease transmission. PMID:24886587

Final Technical Report for Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models, DE-FG02-07ER64429

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smyth, Padhraic

2013-07-22

This is the final report for a DOE-funded research project describing the outcome of research on non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. The main results consist of extensive development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies ofmore » climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes.« less

Explaining topic prevalence in answers to open-ended survey questions about climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tvinnereim, Endre; Fløttum, Kjersti

2015-08-01

Citizens’ opinions are crucial for action on climate change, but are, owing to the complexity of the issue, diverse and potentially unformed. We contribute to the understanding of public views on climate change and to knowledge needed by decision-makers by using a new approach to analyse answers to the open survey question `what comes to mind when you hear the words `climate change’?’. We apply automated text analysis, specifically structural topic modelling, which induces distinct topics based on the relative frequencies of the words used in 2,115 responses. From these data, originating from the new, nationally representative Norwegian Citizen Panel, four distinct topics emerge: Weather/Ice, Future/Impact, Money/Consumption and Attribution. We find that Norwegians emphasize societal aspects of climate change more than do respondents in previous US and UK studies. Furthermore, variables that explain variation in closed questions, such as gender and education, yield different and surprising results when employed to explain variation in what respondents emphasize. Finally, the sharp distinction between scepticism and acceptance of conventional climate science, often seen in previous studies, blurs in many textual responses as scepticism frequently turns into ambivalence.

Regional climate models reduce biases of global models and project smaller European summer warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soerland, S.; Schar, C.; Lüthi, D.; Kjellstrom, E.

2017-12-01

The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically, these model chains employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis were true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution detail) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. The two RCMs reduce the biases of the driving GCMs, reduce the spread and modify the amplitude of the GCM projected climate change signal. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change.

Framing climate change and spatial planning: how risk communication can be improved.

PubMed

de Boer, J

2007-01-01

Taking the role of frames into account may significantly add to the tools that have been developed for communication and learning on complex risks and benefits. As part of a larger multidisciplinary study into climate-related forms of sense-making this paper explores which frames are used by the citizens of Western European countries and, in particular, the Netherlands. Three recent multi-national public opinion surveys were analysed to examine beliefs about climate change in the context of beliefs about energy technology and concerns about other environmental issues, such as natural disasters. It appeared that many citizens had only vague ideas about the energy situation and that these do not constitute an unequivocal frame for climate issues. In contrast, the results suggest that the long-lasting rainfall and severe floods in Central Europe have had a significant impact. Climate change was often framed in a way that articulates its associations with rain- and river-based problems. This result is extremely important for risk communication, because especially in the Netherlands with its vulnerable coastal zones climate change may produce many more consequences than rain- and river-based problems only.

Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole wetlands and climate change: An Introduction to the Supplemental Issue

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.

2016-01-01

The multitude of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America forms one of Earth’s largest wetland complexes. The midcontinent location exposes this ecologically and economically important wetland system to a highly variable climate, markedly influencing ponded-water levels, hydroperiods, chemical characteristics, and biota of individual basins. Given their dominance on the landscape and recognized value, great interest in how projected future changes in climate will affect prairie-pothole wetlands has developed and spawned much scientific research. On June 2, 2015, a special symposium, “Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole Wetlands: Influence of a Changed Climate,” was held at the annual meeting of the Society of Wetland Scientists in Providence, Rhode Island, USA. The symposium’s twelve presenters covered a wide range of relevant topics delivered to a standing-room-only audience. Following the symposium, the presenters recognized the need to publish their presented papers as a combined product to facilitate widespread distribution. The need for additional papers to more fully cover the topic of prairie-pothole wetlands and climate change was also identified. This supplemental issue of Wetlands is the realization of that vision.

Building human resilience: the role of public health preparedness and response as an adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Keim, Mark E

2008-11-01

Global climate change will increase the probability of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, drought, wildfire, cyclones, and heavy precipitation that could cause floods and landslides. Such events create significant public health needs that can exceed local capacity to respond, resulting in excess morbidity or mortality and in the declaration of disasters. Human vulnerability to any disaster is a complex phenomenon with social, economic, health, and cultural dimensions. Vulnerability to natural disasters has two sides: the degree of exposure to dangerous hazards (susceptibility) and the capacity to cope with or recover from disaster consequences (resilience). Vulnerability reduction programs reduce susceptibility and increase resilience. Susceptibility to disasters is reduced largely by prevention and mitigation of emergencies. Emergency preparedness and response and recovery activities--including those that address climate change--increase disaster resilience. Because adaptation must occur at the community level, local public health agencies are uniquely placed to build human resilience to climate-related disasters. This article discusses the role of public health in reducing human vulnerability to climate change within the context of select examples for emergency preparedness and response.

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-09-01

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scallion, M.

2017-12-01

Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to include climate change education as part of a larger ecological exploration, giving students and teachers local context to this global issue and memorable outdoor hands-on experiences and student driven adaptation projects.

A simple model that identifies potential effects of sea-level rise on estuarine and estuary-ecotone habitat locations for salmonids in Oregon, USA.

PubMed

Flitcroft, Rebecca; Burnett, Kelly; Christiansen, Kelly

2013-07-01

Diadromous aquatic species that cross a diverse range of habitats (including marine, estuarine, and freshwater) face different effects of climate change in each environment. One such group of species is the anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). Studies of the potential effects of climate change on salmonids have focused on both marine and freshwater environments. Access to a variety of estuarine habitat has been shown to enhance juvenile life-history diversity, thereby contributing to the resilience of many salmonid species. Our study is focused on the effect of sea-level rise on the availability, complexity, and distribution of estuarine, and low-freshwater habitat for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), steelhead (anadromous O. mykiss), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) along the Oregon Coast under future climate change scenarios. Using LiDAR, we modeled the geomorphologies of five Oregon estuaries and estimated a contour associated with the current mean high tide. Contour intervals at 1- and 2-m increments above the current mean high tide were generated, and changes in the estuary morphology were assessed. Because our analysis relied on digital data, we compared three types of digital data in one estuary to assess the utility of different data sets in predicting the changes in estuary shape. For each salmonid species, changes in the amount and complexity of estuarine edge habitats varied by estuary. The simple modeling approach we applied can also be used to identify areas that may be most amenable to pre-emptive restoration actions to mitigate or enhance salmonid habitat under future climatic conditions.

Impacts of climate change on the formation and stability of late Quaternary sand sheets and falling dunes, Black Mesa region, southern Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellwein, Amy L.; Mahan, Shannon; McFadden, Leslie D.

2015-01-01

Widely used predictive models of eolian system dynamics are typically based entirely on climatic variables and do not account for landscape complexity and geomorphic history. Climate-only assumptions fail to give accurate predictions of the dynamics of this and many other dune fields. A growing body of work suggests that eolian deposits in wind-driven semiarid climates may be more strongly related to increases in sediment supply than to increases in aridity.

Climate change adaptation options for sustainable management of agriculture in the Eastern Lower Danube Plain, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popovici, Elena-Ana; Sima, Mihaela; Balteanu, Dan; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Grigorescu, Ines; Kucsicsa, Gheorghe

2013-04-01

The current study was carried out within the FP7 ECLISE project in the Eastern Lower Danube Plain (Bărăgan Plain), one of the major agricultural areas in Romania. In this region, climate change signals are becoming more evident being predominantly characterized by increasing temperatures, decreasing of precipitations and intensification of extreme events in terms of frequency, intensity and duration. Over the past decades, the effects of extreme climatic phenomena on crop production have been ever more severe (very low outputs in the droughty years, significant crop losses during flooding periods, hailstorms, etc.). Concurrently, these effects have been the result of a whole range of complex interactions with other environmental, social, economic and political factors over the post-communist period. Using questionnaires survey for small individual households and large agricultural farms, focus group interviews and direct field observation, this study analyses the farmers' perception in terms of climate change, the impact of climate change on agriculture and how the farmers react and adapt to these changes. The current study have revealed that all farmers believe drought as being by far the most important climatic factor with major impact on agricultural production, followed by acid rains, hail storms and ground frost, facts evidenced also by the climatic diagnosis of the region. The majority of respondents have taken adaptation agricultural measures in response to changes in climate conditions (drought resistant seeds, modern technology to keep the moisture in the soil, etc.), but they consider that a national strategy for mitigating the effects of climate change would be more effective in this respect. Also, in order to correlate the farmers' perception of climate change and climatic factors, the authors used and processed a wide range of meteorological data (daily, monthly and annual from the most representative meteorological stations in the study-area), as well as calculated some of relevant climatic indicators (Standardized Precipitation Index, Climatic Water Deficit and Thornthwaite Aridity Index for the main crops). These indicators frame the region in a temperate-continental climate with excessive influences, imposing specific management practices in agriculture: rehabilitation of irrigation systems, drought resistant seeds, planting forest belts, etc.).

Grasstops and Grassroots Approaches to Building Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeBeau, A.; Bader, D.

2017-12-01

Climate change and extreme weather events pose complex risks to cities all over the world, impacting not only the built environment, but also social infrastructure. Because urban communities are culturally and socioeconomically diverse, as well as systemically complicated, climate change and extreme weather events will impact people differently even within a single city—not only because of where they live, but also because of who they are. The City of Long Beach, California, is in its very early stages of understanding its vulnerabilities. However, city leaders and community partners including the Aquarium of the Pacific are committed to creating a model climate resilient city. Climate change risks most relevant to Long Beach include drought (and freshwater shortages), extreme heat, sea level rise, and poor air quality. Over the past 18 months, the Aquarium of the Pacific has been testing elements of a broad-reaching education strategy to reach community stakeholders. Two multi-level approaches are designed to build awareness and momentum for climate resilience. A grassroots approach, called RESILIENT LB, focuses on an interactive outreach booth that travels to community events. The booth is staffed by educators with specific training on climate communication. Facilitated conversations help people identify what they love about Long Beach and immediate impacts that climate change will have on the things they value. A second, complimentary approach involves long-term community engagement through a grasstops-to-grassroots approach. Aquarium educators have been facilitating different climate resilience workshops for leaders from a variety of groups across Long Beach. These workshops give leaders the chance to reflect on how their communities may be impacted by climate change, and highlight adaptation (rather than mitigation) to climate change. In this session, we will share how these programs have evolved, lessons learned, and areas of growth.

Parasite vulnerability to climate change: an evidence-based functional trait approach

PubMed Central

Cizauskas, Carrie A.; Clements, Chris F.; Dougherty, Eric R.; Harris, Nyeema C.; Phillips, Anna J.

2017-01-01

Despite the number of virulent pathogens that are projected to benefit from global change and to spread in the next century, we suggest that a combination of coextinction risk and climate sensitivity could make parasites at least as extinction prone as any other trophic group. However, the existing interdisciplinary toolbox for identifying species threatened by climate change is inadequate or inappropriate when considering parasites as conservation targets. A functional trait approach can be used to connect parasites' ecological role to their risk of disappearance, but this is complicated by the taxonomic and functional diversity of many parasite clades. Here, we propose biological traits that may render parasite species particularly vulnerable to extinction (including high host specificity, complex life cycles and narrow climatic tolerance), and identify critical gaps in our knowledge of parasite biology and ecology. By doing so, we provide criteria to identify vulnerable parasite species and triage parasite conservation efforts. PMID:28280551

Causal Chains Arising from Climate Change in Mountain Regions: the Core Program of the Mountain Research Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, G. B.

2014-12-01

Mountains are a widespread terrestrial feature, covering from 12 to 24 percent of the world's terrestrial surface, depending of the definition. Topographic relief is central to the definition of mountains, to the benefits and costs accruing to society and to the cascade of changes expected from climate change. Mountains capture and store water, particularly important in arid regions and in all areas for energy production. In temperate and boreal regions, mountains have a great range in population densities, from empty to urban, while tropical mountains are often densely settled and farmed. Mountain regions contain a wide range of habitats, important for biodiversity, and for primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. Climate change interacts with this relief and consequent diversity. Elevation itself may accentuate warming (elevationi dependent warming) in some mountain regions. Even average warming starts complex chains of causality that reverberate through the diverse social ecological mountain systems affecting both the highlands and adjacent lowlands. A single feature of climate change such as higher snow lines affect the climate through albedo, the water cycle through changes in timing of release , water quality through the weathering of newly exposed material, geomorphology through enhanced erosion, plant communities through changes in climatic water balance, and animal and human communities through changes in habitat conditions and resource availabilities. Understanding these causal changes presents a particular interdisciplinary challenge to researchers, from assessing the existence and magnitude of elevation dependent warming and monitoring the full suite of changes within the social ecological system to climate change, to understanding how social ecological systems respond through individual and institutional behavior with repercussions on the long-term sustainability of these systems.

Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity.

PubMed

Dunford, R; Harrison, P A; Jäger, J; Rounsevell, M D A; Tinch, R

Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.

Climatic Impact of a Change in North Atlantic Deep Water Formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.

1984-01-01

The response of the ocean to climate changes is one of the most uncertain questions regarding the impact of increasing CO2 on climate and society. North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation apparently depends on a complex confluence of different water masses originating in different areas, all of which will presumably be affected by changes in wind, evaporation, etc., as the atmosphere warms. To analyze from first principles what the effect will be on NADW formation is a task which requires an ocean modeling capability not yet available. As a substitute, past climates can be investigated to see if there is any evidence for alterations in NADW formation. In addition, the possible impact of such changes on climate can be explored. An estimate of NADW sensitivity (at least in the past) and of the climate consequences can be studied. The North Atlantic surface water temperatures can be reconstructed to indicate a substantial cooling between 11,000 and 10,000 years B.P. Were NADW formation to have ceased, it would have resulted in cooler surface waters; whether the reconstructed temperatures were due to this or some other effect cannot be determined at this time. Nevertheless, it was decided that it would be useful to see what the effect these colder temperatures would have had on the climate.

Developing A Transdisciplinary Process and Community Partnerships to Anticipate Climate Change at the Local Level: The Role of Biophysical and Sociocultural Calendars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassam, K. A.; Samimi, C.; Trabucco, A.

2017-12-01

Difference is essential to solving the most complex problems faced by humanity. Anthropogenic climate change is one such "wicked problem" that demands cognitive diversity. Biophysical and social scientists must collaborate with scholars from the humanities to address practical issues of concern to local communities, which are at the forefront of impacts of climatic variation. As such, communities of inquirers (e.g. biophysical and social sciences, humanities) must work in tandem with communities of practice (e.g. farmers, fishers, gatherers, herders, hunters). This leads to co-generated knowledge where an adaptation strategy to climatic variation is locally grounded in the biophysical and sociocultural context of the communities where the impacts of climatic variation are most felt. We will present an innovative and `real time' example participatory and transdisciplinary research from an international project where we are developing integrated biophysical and sociocultural calendars, in short, ecological calendars, which are ecologically and culturally grounded in the local context to develop anticipatory capacity to anthropogenic climate change.

Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

Does what you know matter? Investigating the relationship between mental models of climate change and pro-environmental behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, R.

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study is to test the conjecture that environmentally sustainable decisions and behaviors are related to individuals' conceptions of the natural world, in this case climate change; individuals' attitudes towards climate change; and the situations in which these decisions are made. The nature of mental models is an ongoing subject of disagreement. Some argue that mental models are coherent theories, much like scientific theories, that individuals employ systematically when reasoning about the world (Gopnik & Meltzoff, 1998). Others maintain that mental models are cobbled together from fragmented collections of ideas that are only loosely connected and context dependent (Disessa, 1988; Minstrell, 2000). It is likely that individuals sometimes reason about complex phenomena using systematic mental models and at other times reason using knowledge that is organized in fragmented pieces (Steedle & Shavelson, 2009). Thus, in measuring mental models of complex environmental systems, such as climate change, the assumption of systematicity may not be justified. Individuals may apply certain chains of reasoning in some contexts but not in others. The current study hypothesizes that an accurate mental model of climate change enables an individual to make effective evaluative judgments of environmental behavior options. The more an individual's mental model resembles that of an expert, the more consistent, accurate and automatic these judgments become. However, an accurate mental model is not sufficient to change environmental behavior. Real decisions and behaviors are products of a person-situation interaction: an interplay between psychosocial factors (such as knowledge and attitudes) and the situation in which the decision is made. This study investigates the relationship between both psychosocial and situational factors for climate change decisions. Data was collected from 436 adult participants through an online survey. The survey was comprised of demographic questions; three discreet instruments measuring (1) mental models of climate change, (2) attitudes and beliefs about climate change, and (3) self-reported behaviors; and an experimental intervention, followed by a behavioral intention question. Latent class analysis (LCA) and item-response theory (IRT) will be employed to analyze multiple-choice responses to the mental model survey to create groupings of individuals assumed to hold similar mental of climate change. A principal component analysis (PCA) using oblique rotation was employed to identify five scales (Chronbach's alpha > 0.80) within the attitude/belief instrument. Total and sub-scale scores were also calculated for self-reported behaviors. The relationships between mental models, attitudes and behaviors will be analyzed using multiple regression models. This work presents not only the development and validation of three novel instruments for accurately and efficiently measuring mental models, attitudes, and self-reported behaviors, but also provides insight into the types of mental models individuals hold. Understanding how climate change is conceptualized and how such knowledge influences attitudes and behaviors gives educators tools for guiding students towards more expert understandings while also enabling environmentalists to craft more effective messages.

Combining Statistics and Physics to Improve Climate Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutmann, E. D.; Eidhammer, T.; Arnold, J.; Nowak, K.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Getting useful information from climate models is an ongoing problem that has plagued climate science and hydrologic prediction for decades. While it is possible to develop statistical corrections for climate models that mimic current climate almost perfectly, this does not necessarily guarantee that future changes are portrayed correctly. In contrast, convection permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have begun to provide an excellent representation of the regional climate system purely from first principles, providing greater confidence in their change signal. However, the computational cost of such RCMs prohibits the generation of ensembles of simulations or long time periods, thus limiting their applicability for hydrologic applications. Here we discuss a new approach combining statistical corrections with physical relationships for a modest computational cost. We have developed the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) to provide a climate and weather downscaling option that is based primarily on physics for a fraction of the computational requirements of a traditional regional climate model. ICAR also enables the incorporation of statistical adjustments directly within the model. We demonstrate that applying even simple corrections to precipitation while the model is running can improve the simulation of land atmosphere feedbacks in ICAR. For example, by incorporating statistical corrections earlier in the modeling chain, we permit the model physics to better represent the effect of mountain snowpack on air temperature changes.

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Regional effects of vegetation restoration on water yield across the Loess Plateau, China

Treesearch

X. M. Feng; G. Sun; B. J. Fu; C. H. Su; Y. Liu; H. Lamparski

2012-01-01

The general relationships between vegetation and water yield under different climatic regimes are well established at a small watershed scale in the past century. However, applications of these basic theories to evaluate the regional effects of land cover change on water resources remain challenging due to the complex interactions of vegetation and climatic variability...

Building Systems from Scratch: An Exploratory Study of Students Learning about Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puttick, Gillian; Tucker-Raymond, Eli

2018-01-01

Science and computational practices such as modeling and abstraction are critical to understanding the complex systems that are integral to climate science. Given the demonstrated affordances of game design in supporting such practices, we implemented a free 4-day intensive workshop for middle school girls that focused on using the visual…

Influence of dimethyl sulfide on the carbon cycle and biological production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Shanlin; Maltrud, Mathew; Elliott, Scott

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a significant source of marine sulfate aerosol and plays an important role in modifying cloud properties. Fully coupled climate simulations using dynamic marine ecosystem and DMS calculations are conducted to estimate DMS fluxes under various climate scenarios and to examine the sign and strength of phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedbacks for the first time. Simulation results show small differences in the DMS production and emissions between pre-industrial and present climate scenarios, except for some areas in the Southern Ocean. There are clear changes in surface ocean DMS concentrations moving into the future, and they are attributable to changes inmore » phytoplankton production and competition driven by complex spatially varying mechanisms. Comparisons between parallel simulations with and without DMS fluxes into the atmosphere show significant differences in marine ecosystems and physical fields. Without DMS, the missing subsequent aerosol indirect effects on clouds and radiative forcing lead to fewer clouds, more solar radiation, and a much warmer climate. Phaeocystis, a uniquely efficient organosulfur producer with a growth advantage under cooler climate states, can benefit from producing the compound through cooling effects of DMS in the climate system. Our results show a tight coupling between the sulfur and carbon cycles. The ocean carbon uptake declines without DMS emissions to the atmosphere. The analysis indicates a weak positive phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedback at the global scale, with large spatial variations driven by individual autotrophic functional groups and complex mechanisms. The sign and strength of the feedback vary with climate states and phytoplankton groups. This highlights the importance of a dynamic marine ecosystem module and the sulfur cycle mechanism in climate projections.« less

Influence of dimethyl sulfide on the carbon cycle and biological production

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shanlin; Maltrud, Mathew; Elliott, Scott; ...

2018-02-27

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a significant source of marine sulfate aerosol and plays an important role in modifying cloud properties. Fully coupled climate simulations using dynamic marine ecosystem and DMS calculations are conducted to estimate DMS fluxes under various climate scenarios and to examine the sign and strength of phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedbacks for the first time. Simulation results show small differences in the DMS production and emissions between pre-industrial and present climate scenarios, except for some areas in the Southern Ocean. There are clear changes in surface ocean DMS concentrations moving into the future, and they are attributable to changes inmore » phytoplankton production and competition driven by complex spatially varying mechanisms. Comparisons between parallel simulations with and without DMS fluxes into the atmosphere show significant differences in marine ecosystems and physical fields. Without DMS, the missing subsequent aerosol indirect effects on clouds and radiative forcing lead to fewer clouds, more solar radiation, and a much warmer climate. Phaeocystis, a uniquely efficient organosulfur producer with a growth advantage under cooler climate states, can benefit from producing the compound through cooling effects of DMS in the climate system. Our results show a tight coupling between the sulfur and carbon cycles. The ocean carbon uptake declines without DMS emissions to the atmosphere. The analysis indicates a weak positive phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedback at the global scale, with large spatial variations driven by individual autotrophic functional groups and complex mechanisms. The sign and strength of the feedback vary with climate states and phytoplankton groups. This highlights the importance of a dynamic marine ecosystem module and the sulfur cycle mechanism in climate projections.« less

The CLEAN Workshop Series: Promoting Effective Pedagogy for Teaching Undergraduate Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirk, K. B.; Bruckner, M. Z.; Manduca, C. A.; Buhr, S. M.

2012-12-01

To prepare students to understand a changing climate, it is imperative that we equip educators with the best possible tools and methods for reaching their audience. As part of the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) professional development efforts, two workshops for undergraduate faculty were held in 2012. These workshops used a variety of activities to help faculty learn about recent climate research, take part in demonstrations of successful activities for teaching climate topics, and collaborate to create new teaching materials. The workshops also facilitated professional networking among participants. Both workshops were held online, eliminating the need for travel, encouraging participants without travel funds to attend, and allowing international collaborations and presentations. To create an authentic experience, the workshop used several technologies such as the Blackboard Collaborate web conferencing platform, SERC's web-based collaboration tools and online discussion threads, and conference calls. The workshop Communicating Climate Science in the Classroom, held in April 2012, explored practices for communicating climate science and policy in the classroom and provided strategies to improve student understanding of this complex and sensitive topic. Workshop presentations featured public opinion research on Americans' perceptions of climate change, tactics for identifying and resolving student misconceptions, and methods to address various "backfire effects" that can result from attempts to correct misinformation. Demonstrations of teaching approaches included a role-playing simulation of emissions negotiations, Princeton's climate stabilization wedges game, and an activity that allows students to use scientific principles to tackle misinformation. The workshop Teaching Climate Complexity was held in May 2012. Teaching the complexities of climate science requires an understanding of many facets of the Earth system and a robust pedagogic approach that fosters systems thinking. Workshop participants heard presentations from top climate scientists about topics such as the role of carbon dioxide in regulating Earth's climate, the silicate-weathering thermostat hypothesis, effects of water vapor in the climate system, and albedo effects from the loss of Artic sea ice. Demonstrations of classroom techniques allowed participants to use a jigsaw approach to understand poleward heat transport, plot atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and use a mass balance model to explore the role of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere. A hallmark of the CLEAN workshops is that participants are actively engaged in team projects to create new teaching materials. In the Communicating Climate workshop, John Cook led a demonstration of techniques featured in his Debunking Handbook and workshop participants created examples of how to respond to common climate myths in the classroom. In the Climate Complexities workshop, participants used existing elements within the CLEAN reviewed collection to create a comprehensive sequence of activities that can be used to teach elements of Earth's climate system. Activities from the workshop are archived on the CLEAN website, including screen cast recordings of all the presentations and materials created at each workshop. For more information, visit the workshop website at the URL below.

Translating climate change effects on species into everyday language: an example of more driving and less fishing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Jefferson T. Deweber,

2015-01-01

Climate science is a complex issue, and we argue that when communicating potential responses of vegetation, fish, and wildlife to nonscientists, creative thinking with respect to the currency of communication will facilitate discussions between scientists, policy makers, and the public. We posit that with some additional thought and relatively simple summaries, the responses of fish and other species to climate change can be translated into everyday language that will facilitate climate science communication. Although such translations are rare, one example of this type of creativity is the translation from changes in habitat suitability for tree species to potential reductions in maple syrup production (West over 2012), which is arguably more interesting and understandable for the general public. Similar translations could be especially important for communicating climate change effects on game fish and other species that are socially and economically important to large groups of people. We demonstrate this translation by communicating the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of a coldwater fish species, the eastern Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis. Rather than communicating the potential forecasted contraction of the Brook Trout's distribution in terms of habitat loss, we report the predicted increases in the driving distance to streams likely offering Brook Trout angling opportunities under a climate change scenario. Travel costs based on distance have been widely used to value ecosystem services such as angling under climate change scenarios (e.g., Pendleton and Mendelsohn 1998; Mendelsohn and Markowski 1999; Ahn et al. 2000) but, to the best of our knowledge, have not been used for communicating potential changes to the public despite the intrinsic link to everyday life.

Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

2017-12-01

Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

How does complex terrain influence responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, B. J.; Peterson, K.; McKane, R.; Lajtha, K.; Quandt, D. J.; Allen, S. T.; Sell, S.; Daly, C.; Harmon, M. E.; Johnson, S. L.; Spies, T.; Sollins, P.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Stieglitz, M.

2010-12-01

We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site situated in Oregon’s central-western Cascade Range. Decades of long-term measurements and intensive research have revealed influences of topography on vegetation patterns, disturbance history, and hydrology. More recent research has shown surprising interactions between microclimates and synoptic weather patterns due to cold air drainage and pooling in mountain valleys. Using these data and insights, in addition to a recent LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) reconnaissance and a small sensor network, we are employing process-based models, including “SPA” (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere, developed by Mathew Williams of the University of Edinburgh), and “VELMA” (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Alternatives, developed by Marc Stieglitz and colleagues of the Georgia Institute of Technology) to focus on two important features of mountainous landscapes: heterogeneity (both spatial and temporal) and connectivity (atmosphere-canopy-hillslope-stream). Our research questions include: 1) Do fine-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity result in emergent properties at the basin scale, and if so, what are they? 2) How does connectivity across ecosystem components affect system responses to climate variability and change? Initial results show that for environmental drivers that elicit non-linear ecosystem responses on the plot scale, such as solar radiation, soil depth and soil water content, fine-scale spatial heterogeneity may produce unexpected emergent properties at larger scales. The results from such modeling experiments are necessarily a function of the supporting algorithms. However, comparisons based on models such as SPA and VELMA that operate at much different spatial scales (plots vs. hillslopes) and levels of biophysical organization (individual plants vs. aggregate plant biomass) can help us to understand how and why mountainous ecosystems may have distinctive responses to climate variability and climate change.

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p <= 0. 01) for all the three GCMs in the period 2051-2099. The frequency of flood events above selected historical thresholds also increases under projections from CNRM CM3 and NCAR PCM1 climate models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

A Simple Climate Model Program for High School Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, D.

2012-04-01

The future climate change projections of the IPCC AR4 are based on GCM simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern, with an arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land sea contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the IPCC predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change are very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex GCM simulations and they are not accessible for ordinary people. In this study presented here we will introduce a very simple gridded globally resolved energy balance model based on strongly simplified physical processes, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the 1-dimensional energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex GCMs. It runs on standard PC computers computing globally resolved climate simulation with 2yrs per second or 100,000yrs per day. The program can compute typical global warming scenarios in a few minutes on a standard PC. The computer code is only 730 line long with very simple formulations that high school students should be able to understand. The simple model's climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern is within the uncertainties of the IPCC AR4 models simulations. It is capable of simulating the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land sea contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC AR4 models in amplitude and structure. The program can be used to do sensitivity studies in which students can change something (e.g. reduce the solar radiation, take away the clouds or make snow black) and see how it effects the climate or the climate response to changes in greenhouse gases. This program is available for every one and could be the basis for high school education. Partners for a high school project are wanted!

Attributing runoff changes to climate variability and human activities: uncertainty analysis using four monthly water balance models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Shuai; Xiong, Lihua; Li, Hong-Yi

2015-05-26

Hydrological simulations to delineate the impacts of climate variability and human activities are subjected to uncertainties related to both parameter and structure of the hydrological models. To analyze the impact of these uncertainties on the model performance and to yield more reliable simulation results, a global calibration and multimodel combination method that integrates the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of four monthly water balance models was proposed. The method was applied to the Weihe River Basin (WRB), the largest tributary of the Yellow River, to determine the contribution of climate variability and human activities tomore » runoff changes. The change point, which was used to determine the baseline period (1956-1990) and human-impacted period (1991-2009), was derived using both cumulative curve and Pettitt’s test. Results show that the combination method from SCEM provides more skillful deterministic predictions than the best calibrated individual model, resulting in the smallest uncertainty interval of runoff changes attributed to climate variability and human activities. This combination methodology provides a practical and flexible tool for attribution of runoff changes to climate variability and human activities by hydrological models.« less

Obesity and climate change mitigation in Australia: overview and analysis of policies with co-benefits.

PubMed

Lowe, Melanie

2014-02-01

To provide an overview of the shared structural causes of obesity and climate change, and analyse policies that could be implemented in Australia to both equitably reduce obesity rates and contribute to mitigating climate change. Informed by the political economy of health theoretical framework, a review was conducted of the literature on the shared causes of, and solutions to, obesity and climate change. Policies with potential co-benefits for climate change and obesity were then analysed based upon their feasibility and capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and equitably reduce obesity rates in Australia. Policies with potential co-benefits fit within three broad categories: those to replace car use with low-emissions, active modes of transport; those to improve diets and reduce emissions from the food system; and macro-level economic policies to reduce the over-consumption of food and fossil fuel energy. Given the complex causes of both problems, it is argued that a full spectrum of complementary strategies across different sectors should be utilised. Such an approach would have significant public health, social and environmental benefits. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

EDMONDS, JAMES A.; LINK, ROBERT; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T.

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-seriesmore » observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.« less

Modeling the potential effects of climate change on high elevation vegetation in the Olympic Mountains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zolbrod, A.N.; Peterson, D.L.

1995-06-01

Subalpine and alpine vegetation may be particularly sensitive to climatic change, such as expected temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns with global warming. The gap replacement model ZELIG was modified and used to examine transient and steady-state changes in altitudinal treeline, tree species distribution, and forest structure and composition along elevation gradients in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, under a range of temperature and precipitation changes. Changes in vegetation pattern were examined for north vs. south aspects, and wet (southwest) vs. dry (northeast) regions of the mountains. The seedling establishment subroutine in ZELIG was improved to specifically model the complexities ofmore » tree invasion in subalpine meadows and include empirical data. A function allowing for stand replacement fire was also added in order to examine the role of altered disturbance regimes on vegetation change. Results indicate that distribution of tree species will change under various climate change scenarios, but future elevation of treeline depends greatly on precipitation levels, disturbance frequency, and aspect.« less

Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

2014-12-01

The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the particular challenges of supporting an integrated, repeatable workflow for socio-environmental data synthesis, and the advantages and limitations to using data as a launching point for interdisciplinary research projects.

Quantifying the effects of overgrazing on mountainous watershed vegetation dynamics under a changing climate.

PubMed

Hao, Lu; Pan, Cen; Fang, Di; Zhang, Xiaoyu; Zhou, Decheng; Liu, Peilong; Liu, Yongqiang; Sun, Ge

2018-10-15

Grazing is a major ecosystem disturbance in arid regions that are increasingly threatened by climate change. Understanding the long-term impacts of grazing on rangeland vegetation dynamics in a complex terrain in mountainous regions is important for quantifying dry land ecosystem services for integrated watershed management and climate change adaptation. However, data on the detailed long-term spatial distribution of grazing activities are rare, which prevents trend detection and environmental impact assessments of grazing. This study quantified the impacts of grazing on vegetation dynamics for the period of 1983-2010 in the Upper Heihe River basin, a complex multiple-use watershed in northwestern China. We also examined the relative contributions of grazing and climate to vegetation change using a dynamic grazing pressure method. Spatial grazing patterns and temporal dynamics were mapped at a 1 km × 1 km pixel scale using satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) data. We found that overgrazing was a dominant driver for LAI reduction in alpine grasslands and shrubs, especially for the periods of 1985-1991 and 1997-2004. Although the recent decade-long active grazing management contributed to the improvement of LAI and partially offset the negative effects of increased livestock, overgrazing has posed significant challenges to shrub-grassland ecosystem recovery in the eastern part of the study basin. We conclude that the positive effects of a warming and wetting climate on vegetation could be underestimated if the negative long-term grazing effects are not considered. Findings from the present case study show that assessing long-term climate change impacts on watersheds must include the influences of human activities. Our study provides important guidance for ecological restoration efforts in locating vulnerable areas and designing effective management practices in the study watershed. Such information is essential for natural resource management that aims at meeting multiple demands of watershed ecosystem services in arid and semiarid rangelands. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Learning as change: Responding to socio-scientific issues through informal education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Lauren Brooks

Informal learning is an important venue for educating the general public about complex socio-scientific issues: intersections of scientific understanding and society. My dissertation is a multi-tiered analysis of how informal education, and particularly informal educators, can leverage learning to respond to one particular socio-scientific issue: climate change. Life-long, life-wide, and life-deep learning not only about the science of climate change, but how communities and society as a whole can respond to it in ways that are commensurate with its scale are necessary. In my three-article dissertation, I investigated the changes in practice and learning that informal educators from a natural history museum underwent in the process of implementing a new type of field trip about climate change. This study focused on inquiry-based learning principles taken on by the museum educators, albeit in different ways: learner autonomy, conversation, and deep investigation. My second article, a short literature review, makes the argument that climate change education must have goals beyond simply increasing learners' knowledge of climate science, and proposes three research-based principles for such learning: participation, relevance, and interconnectedness. These principles are argued to promote learning to respond to climate change as well as increased collective efficacy, necessary for responding. Finally, my third article is an in-depth examination of a heterogeneous network of informal educators and environmental professionals who worked together to design and implement a city-wide platform for informal climate change learning. By conceptualizing climate change learning at the level of the learning ecology, educators and learners are able to see how it can be responded to at the community level, and understand how climate change is interconnected with other scientific, natural, and social systems. I briefly discuss a different socio-scientific issue to which these principles can be applied: heritable, human manipulation of other biological entities; in other words, genetic engineering.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site's future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change. PMID:26466364

Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

PubMed

Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

2015-06-01

Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation.

Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

2012-05-01

The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

Climate Change in Colorado: Findings and Scientific Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsugli, J.; Ray, A.; Averyt, K.; Wolter, K.; Hoerling, M. P.

2008-12-01

In response to the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change, Governor Ritter issued the Colorado Climate Action Plan (CCAP) in 2007. In support of the adaptation component of the CCAP, the Colorado Water Conservation Board commissioned the Western Water Assessment at the University of Colorado to prepare the report "Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation." The objective of "Climate Change in Colorado" is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources. Accordingly, the document focuses on observed trends, modeling, attribution, and projections of hydroclimatic variables that are important for Colorado's water supply. Although many published datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus on the state. Consequently, many important analyses for Colorado are lacking. The report summarizes Colorado-specific findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and presents new analyses derived from existing datasets. Here we will summarize the findings of the report, discuss the extent to which conclusions from West-wide studies hold in Colorado, and highlight the many scientific challenges that were faced in the preparation of the report. These challenges include interpreting observed and projected precipitation and temperature variability and trends, dealing with attribution and uncertainty at the state level, and justifying the relevance of climate model projections in a topographically complex state. A second presentation (Ray et al.) discusses the process of developing the report.

Beyond Knowledge: Service Learning and Local Climate Change Research Engagement Activities that Foster Action and Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Mandryk, C.; Gosselin, D. C.; Haney, C.

2013-12-01

Climate change engagement requires individuals to understand an abstract and complex topic and realize the profound implications of climate change for their families and local community. In recent years federal agencies have spent millions of dollars on climate change education to prepare a nation for a warming future. The majority of these education efforts are based on a knowledge deficit model. In this view 'educate' means 'provide information'. However cognitive and behavioral research and current action demonstrate that information alone is not enough; knowledge does not necessarily lead to action. Educators are speaking to deaf ears if we rely on passive and abstract information transfer and neglect more persuasive and affective approaches to communication. When climate change is presented abstractly as something that happens in the future to people, environments, animals somewhere else it is easy to discount. People employ two separate systems for information processing: analytical-rational and intuitive-experiential Authentic local research experiences that engage both analytical and experiential information processing systems not only help individuals understand the abstraction of climate change in a concrete and personally experienced manner, but are more likely to influence behavior. Two on-line, graduate-level courses offered within University of Nebraska's Masters of Applied Science program provide opportunities for participants to engage in authentic inquiry based studies climate change's local impacts, and work with K-12 learners in promoting the scientific awareness and behavioral changes that mitigate against the negative impacts of a changing climate. The courses are specifically designed to improve middle and high school (grades 6-12) teachers' content knowledge of climate processes and climate change science in the context of their own community. Both courses provide data-rich, investigative science experiences in a distributed digital environment and support teachers in the creation of lessons and units that promote both inquiry science and service learning in the community. Course participants connect the dots from their newly acquired theoretical science knowledge to concrete examples of change taking place locally, and see the value of promoting awareness as well as behavioral changes that contribute to adaptation and mitigation of local climate change impacts. We describe the assessments used and the research outcomes associated with NRES 832, Human Dimensions of Climate Change, where participants conduct archival research to create a climate change chronicle for their community, and NRES 830 Climate Research Applications, where teachers lead and evaluate the impacts of student-designed service learning activities as a capstone project for a unit on climate change. We also showcase community-based initiatives resulting from this work that seed the behavioral changes we need to live sustainably in our communities and on our planet.

Exploring the Climate Literacy Development Utilizing a Learning Progressions Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewes, A.; Breslyn, W.; McGinnis, J. R.; Hestness, E.; Mouza, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change encompasses a broad and complex set of concepts that is often challenging for students and educators. Using a learning progressions framework, in this exploratory study we report our efforts to identify, describe, and organize the development of learners' understanding of climate change in an empirically supported learning progression (LP). The learning progression framework is a well suited analytical tool for investigating how student thinking develops over time (Duschl et al., 2007). Our primary research question is "How do learners progress over time from an initial to a more sophisticated understanding of climate change?"We followed a development process that involved drafting a hypothetical learning progression based on the science education research literature, consensus documents such as the Next Generation Science Standards and the Atlas of Science Literacy. Additionally, we conducted expert reviews with both climate scientists and educational researchers on the content and pedagogical expectations. Data are then collected from learners, which are used to modify the hypothetical learning progression based on how well it describes actual student learning. In this current analysis, we present findings from written assessments (N=294) and in-depth interviews (n=27) with middle school students in which we examine their understanding of the role of human activity, the greenhouse effect as the mechanism of climate change, local and global impacts, and strategies for the adaptation and mitigation of climate change. The culmination of our research is a proposed, empirically supported LP for climate change. Our LP is framed by consideration of four primary constructs: Human Activity, Mechanism, Impacts, and Mitigation and Adaptation. The conditional LP provides a solid foundation for continued research as well as providing urgently needed guidance to the education community on climate change education (for curriculum, instruction, and assessment). Based on consensus documents like NGSS, the research literature, and data collected in our investigation, as well as review by practicing climate scientists and educational researchers, the climate change LP represents a robust and empirically supported description of how climate change understanding develops over time.

Presentation of uncertainties on web platforms for climate change information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, Thomas; Wrobel, Markus; Reusser, Dominik

2014-05-01

Climate research has a long tradition, however there is still uncertainty about the specific effects of climate change. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to the challenge that the scientific information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, however, the complexity of the science behind needs to be incorporated. In particular, this requires the explicit representation of spatial and temporal uncertainty information to lay people. Within this talk/poster we survey how climate change and climate impact uncertainty information is presented on various climate service web-based platforms. We outline how the specifics of this medium make it challenging to find adequate and readable representations of uncertainties. First, we introduce a multi-step approach in communicating the uncertainty basing on a typology of uncertainty distinguishing between epistemic, natural stochastic, and human reflexive uncertainty. Then, we compare existing concepts and representations for uncertainty communication with current practices on web-based platforms, including own solutions within our web platforms ClimateImpactsOnline and ci:grasp. Finally, we review surveys on how spatial uncertainty visualization techniques are conceived by untrainded users.

A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2016-09-01

Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large-scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

Individual Differences in Students' Complex Problem Solving Skills: How They Evolve and What They Imply

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wüstenberg, Sascha; Greiff, Samuel; Vainikainen, Mari-Pauliina; Murphy, Kevin

2016-01-01

Changes in the demands posed by increasingly complex workplaces in the 21st century have raised the importance of nonroutine skills such as complex problem solving (CPS). However, little is known about the antecedents and outcomes of CPS, especially with regard to malleable external factors such as classroom climate. To investigate the relations…