Look, Think, Act: Using Critical Action Research to Sustain Reform in Complex Teaching/Learning Ecologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patterson, Leslie; Baldwin, Shelia; Araujo, Juan; Shearer, Ragina; Stewart, Mary Amanda

2010-01-01

This paper argues that educators interested in sustainability should look to complexity science for guiding principles. When we view our classrooms and campuses as living, dynamic ecologies, we can, as insiders, make sense of what might otherwise seem chaotic or meaningless. This perspective enables us not only to describe and explain what is…

An Ecological Analysis of the Dynamics of Localities: A 14+ Low Opportunity Progression Equilibrium in Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hodgson, Ann; Spours, Ken

2015-01-01

This article uses a multi-level ecological model to explore the dynamics of localities in England and their effects on the 14+ participation, progression and transition (14+ PPT) of young people at a time when nationally and internationally there is a recognition that transitions from education to employment are both more complex and take longer.…

Quantifying the adaptive cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

2015-01-01

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle.

PubMed

Angeler, David G; Allen, Craig R; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Gunderson, Lance H; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

2015-01-01

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994-2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

Deciphering the Interdependence between Ecological and Evolutionary Networks.

PubMed

Melián, Carlos J; Matthews, Blake; de Andreazzi, Cecilia S; Rodríguez, Jorge P; Harmon, Luke J; Fortuna, Miguel A

2018-05-24

Biological systems consist of elements that interact within and across hierarchical levels. For example, interactions among genes determine traits of individuals, competitive and cooperative interactions among individuals influence population dynamics, and interactions among species affect the dynamics of communities and ecosystem processes. Such systems can be represented as hierarchical networks, but can have complex dynamics when interdependencies among levels of the hierarchy occur. We propose integrating ecological and evolutionary processes in hierarchical networks to explore interdependencies in biological systems. We connect gene networks underlying predator-prey trait distributions to food webs. Our approach addresses longstanding questions about how complex traits and intraspecific trait variation affect the interdependencies among biological levels and the stability of meta-ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid evolution of hosts begets species diversity at the cost of intraspecific diversity.

PubMed

Frickel, Jens; Theodosiou, Loukas; Becks, Lutz

2017-10-17

Ecosystems are complex food webs in which multiple species interact and ecological and evolutionary processes continuously shape populations and communities. Previous studies on eco-evolutionary dynamics have shown that the presence of intraspecific diversity affects community structure and function, and that eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics can be an important driver for its maintenance. Within communities, feedbacks are, however, often indirect, and they can feed back over many generations. Here, we studied eco-evolutionary feedbacks in evolving communities over many generations and compared two-species systems (virus-host and prey-predator) with a more complex three-species system (virus-host-predator). Both indirect density- and trait-mediated effects drove the dynamics in the complex system, where host-virus coevolution facilitated coexistence of predator and virus, and where coexistence, in return, lowered intraspecific diversity of the host population. Furthermore, ecological and evolutionary dynamics were significantly altered in the three-species system compared with the two-species systems. We found that the predator slowed host-virus coevolution in the complex system and that the virus' effect on the overall population dynamics was negligible when the three species coexisted. Overall, we show that a detailed understanding of the mechanism driving eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics is necessary for explaining trait and species diversity in communities, even in communities with only three species.

Marginal Utility of Conditional Sensitivity Analyses for Dynamic Models

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/MethodsDynamic ecological processes may be influenced by many factors. Simulation models thatmimic these processes often have complex implementations with many parameters. Sensitivityanalyses are subsequently used to identify critical parameters whose uncertai...

Genes, communities & invasive species: understanding the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of host-pathogen interactions.

PubMed

Burdon, J J; Thrall, P H; Ericson, L

2013-08-01

Reciprocal interactions between hosts and pathogens drive ecological, epidemiological and co-evolutionary trajectories, resulting in complex patterns of diversity at population, species and community levels. Recent results confirm the importance of negative frequency-dependent rather than 'arms-race' processes in the evolution of individual host-pathogen associations. At the community level, complex relationships between species abundance and diversity dampen or alter pathogen impacts. Invasive pathogens challenge these controls reflecting the earliest stages of evolutionary associations (akin to arms-race) where disease effects may be so great that they overwhelm the host's and community's ability to respond. Viewing these different stabilization/destabilization phases as a continuum provides a valuable perspective to assessment of the role of genetics and ecology in the dynamics of both natural and invasive host-pathogen associations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The spatiotemporal system dynamics of acquired resistance in an engineered microecology.

PubMed

Datla, Udaya Sree; Mather, William H; Chen, Sheng; Shoultz, Isaac W; Täuber, Uwe C; Jones, Caroline N; Butzin, Nicholas C

2017-11-22

Great strides have been made in the understanding of complex networks; however, our understanding of natural microecologies is limited. Modelling of complex natural ecological systems has allowed for new findings, but these models typically ignore the constant evolution of species. Due to the complexity of natural systems, unanticipated interactions may lead to erroneous conclusions concerning the role of specific molecular components. To address this, we use a synthetic system to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of growth and to study acquired resistance in vivo. Our system differs from earlier synthetic systems in that it focuses on the evolution of a microecology from a killer-prey relationship to coexistence using two different non-motile Escherichia coli strains. Using empirical data, we developed the first ecological model emphasising the concept of the constant evolution of species, where the survival of the prey species is dependent on location (distance from the killer) or the evolution of resistance. Our simple model, when expanded to complex microecological association studies under varied spatial and nutrient backgrounds may help to understand the complex relationships between multiple species in intricate natural ecological networks. This type of microecological study has become increasingly important, especially with the emergence of antibiotic-resistant pathogens.

Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dearing, John A.; Bullock, Seth; Costanza, Robert; Dawson, Terry P.; Edwards, Mary E.; Poppy, Guy M.; Smith, Graham M.

2012-04-01

The `Perfect Storm' metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.

Extending and expanding the Darwinian synthesis: the role of complex systems dynamics.

PubMed

Weber, Bruce H

2011-03-01

Darwinism is defined here as an evolving research tradition based upon the concepts of natural selection acting upon heritable variation articulated via background assumptions about systems dynamics. Darwin's theory of evolution was developed within a context of the background assumptions of Newtonian systems dynamics. The Modern Evolutionary Synthesis, or neo-Darwinism, successfully joined Darwinian selection and Mendelian genetics by developing population genetics informed by background assumptions of Boltzmannian systems dynamics. Currently the Darwinian Research Tradition is changing as it incorporates new information and ideas from molecular biology, paleontology, developmental biology, and systems ecology. This putative expanded and extended synthesis is most perspicuously deployed using background assumptions from complex systems dynamics. Such attempts seek to not only broaden the range of phenomena encompassed by the Darwinian Research Tradition, such as neutral molecular evolution, punctuated equilibrium, as well as developmental biology, and systems ecology more generally, but to also address issues of the emergence of evolutionary novelties as well as of life itself. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Situations, Interaction, Process and Affordances: An Ecological Psychology Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Michael F.; DePalma, Andrew; Garrett, Steven

2002-01-01

From an ecological psychology perspective, a full analysis of any learning context must acknowledge the complex nonlinear dynamics that unfold as an intentionally-driven learner interacts with a technology-based purposefully designed learning environment. A full situation model would need to incorporate constraints from the environment and also…

Rapid evolution of hosts begets species diversity at the cost of intraspecific diversity

PubMed Central

Frickel, Jens; Theodosiou, Loukas

2017-01-01

Ecosystems are complex food webs in which multiple species interact and ecological and evolutionary processes continuously shape populations and communities. Previous studies on eco-evolutionary dynamics have shown that the presence of intraspecific diversity affects community structure and function, and that eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics can be an important driver for its maintenance. Within communities, feedbacks are, however, often indirect, and they can feed back over many generations. Here, we studied eco-evolutionary feedbacks in evolving communities over many generations and compared two-species systems (virus–host and prey–predator) with a more complex three-species system (virus–host–predator). Both indirect density- and trait-mediated effects drove the dynamics in the complex system, where host–virus coevolution facilitated coexistence of predator and virus, and where coexistence, in return, lowered intraspecific diversity of the host population. Furthermore, ecological and evolutionary dynamics were significantly altered in the three-species system compared with the two-species systems. We found that the predator slowed host–virus coevolution in the complex system and that the virus’ effect on the overall population dynamics was negligible when the three species coexisted. Overall, we show that a detailed understanding of the mechanism driving eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics is necessary for explaining trait and species diversity in communities, even in communities with only three species. PMID:28973943

Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2007-01-01

Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

Time for a change: dynamic urban ecology.

PubMed

Ramalho, Cristina E; Hobbs, Richard J

2012-03-01

Contemporary cities are expanding rapidly in a spatially complex, non-linear manner. However, this form of expansion is rarely taken into account in the way that urbanization is classically assessed in ecological studies. An explicit consideration of the temporal dynamics, although frequently missing, is crucial in order to understand the effects of urbanization on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in rapidly urbanizing landscapes. In particular, a temporal perspective highlights the importance of land-use legacies and transient dynamics in the response of biodiversity to environmental change. Here, we outline the essential elements of an emerging framework for urban ecology that incorporates the characteristics of contemporary urbanization and thus empowers ecologists to understand and intervene in the planning and management of cities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complexity Thinking in PE: Game-Centred Approaches, Games as Complex Adaptive Systems, and Ecological Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storey, Brian; Butler, Joy

2013-01-01

Background: This article draws on the literature relating to game-centred approaches (GCAs), such as Teaching Games for Understanding, and dynamical systems views of motor learning to demonstrate a convergence of ideas around games as complex adaptive learning systems. This convergence is organized under the title "complexity thinking"…

Social-ecological dynamics of change and restoration attempts in the Chihuahuan Desert grasslands of Janos Biosphere Reserve, Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Shrub encroachment and grassland loss are widespread throughout the US-Mexico borderlands with negative consequences for production of livestock and ecosystem services. In this paper we detail the complex social and ecological phenomena associated with this pattern of degradation in a large area in ...

Resilience | Science Inventory | US EPA

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Resilience is an important framework for understanding and managing complex systems of people and nature that are subject to abrupt and nonlinear change. The idea of ecological resilience was slow to gain acceptance in the scientific community, taking thirty years to become widely accepted (Gunderson 2000, cited under Original Definition). Currently, the concept is commonplace in academics, management, and policy. Although the idea has quantitative roots in the ecological sciences and was proposed as a measurable quality of ecosystems, the broad use of resilience led to an expansion of definitions and applications. Holling’s original definition, presented in 1973 (Holling 1973, cited under Original Definition), was simply the amount of disturbance that a system can withstand before it shifts into an alternative stability domain. Ecological resilience, therefore, emphasizes that the dynamics of complex systems are nonlinear, meaning that these systems can transition, often abruptly, between dynamic states with substantially different structures, functions, and processes. The transition of ecological systems from one state to another frequently has important repercussions for humans. Recent definitions are more normative and qualitative, especially in the social sciences, and a competing definition, that of engineering resilience, is still often used. Resilience is an emergent phenomenon of complex systems, which means it cannot be deduced from the behavior of t

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

PubMed

Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

2015-09-01

Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

PubMed Central

Lade, Steven J.; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J.; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F.; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

2015-01-01

Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social–ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social–ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social–ecological models. PMID:26283344

Markov and non-Markov processes in complex systems by the dynamical information entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yulmetyev, R. M.; Gafarov, F. M.

1999-12-01

We consider the Markov and non-Markov processes in complex systems by the dynamical information Shannon entropy (DISE) method. The influence and important role of the two mutually dependent channels of entropy alternation (creation or generation of correlation) and anti-correlation (destroying or annihilation of correlation) have been discussed. The developed method has been used for the analysis of the complex systems of various natures: slow neutron scattering in liquid cesium, psychology (short-time numeral and pattern human memory and effect of stress on the dynamical taping-test), random dynamics of RR-intervals in human ECG (problem of diagnosis of various disease of the human cardio-vascular systems), chaotic dynamics of the parameters of financial markets and ecological systems.

Deconstructing mammal dispersals and faunal dynamics in SW Europe during the Quaternary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palombo, Maria Rita

2014-07-01

This research aims to investigate the relationships between climate change and faunal dynamics in south-west Europe, disentangling the asynchronous and diachronous dispersal bioevents of large mammals across geographical and ecological boundaries, analysing biodiversity and its changes through time. The analysis of local versus regional biological dynamics may shed new light on whether turnovers and ecological and evolutionary changes developed because of global climate changes and related phenomena, or because of intrinsic biological factors. The SW European Quaternary fossil record is particularly suitable for studying the role of climate change at local and regional levels because of the complex physiographic and climatic heterogeneity of the study area, the presence of important geographical/ecological barriers and the complex history of invasions of species of varying geographical origin and provenance. The data base consists of taxonomically revised lists of large mammal species from selected SW European local faunal assemblages ranging in age from the Early to the late Middle Pleistocene (middle Villafranchian to early Aurelian European Land Mammal Ages). The new biochronological scheme proposed here allows for the comparison of local turnovers and biodiversity trends, yielding a better understanding of the action of geographical/ecological barriers that either prevented the range of some taxa from reaching some regions or caused delays in the dispersal of a taxon in some territories. The results obtained provide evidence that major environmental perturbations, triggering dispersal events and removing keystone species, modified the structure of the pre-existing mammalian faunas, merging previously independently-evolved taxa into new palaeo-communities. The coupled action of climatic changes and internal biotic dynamics thus caused the Quaternary SW European faunal complexes to significantly restructure. Diachroneity in local turnover across the study area probably relates to differences in local dynamic patterns of competition/coevolution, although different manifestations of global climate changes in different geographic settings would have contributed to the scale of local bioevents.

Multiplex social ecological network analysis reveals how social changes affect community robustness more than resource depletion.

PubMed

Baggio, Jacopo A; BurnSilver, Shauna B; Arenas, Alex; Magdanz, James S; Kofinas, Gary P; De Domenico, Manlio

2016-11-29

Network analysis provides a powerful tool to analyze complex influences of social and ecological structures on community and household dynamics. Most network studies of social-ecological systems use simple, undirected, unweighted networks. We analyze multiplex, directed, and weighted networks of subsistence food flows collected in three small indigenous communities in Arctic Alaska potentially facing substantial economic and ecological changes. Our analysis of plausible future scenarios suggests that changes to social relations and key households have greater effects on community robustness than changes to specific wild food resources.

Evaluating Effects of Localized Habitat Manipulations on Landscape-level Dynamics of White-footed Mouse Populations

EPA Science Inventory

Due to complex population dynamics and migration behaviors, the well-being of animal populations that host human diseases sometimes varies across landscapes in ways that cannot be deduced from geographic abundance patterns alone. In such cases, efficient management of ecological...

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

PubMed

Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

2010-01-01

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-11-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Application of network methods for understanding evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Fefferman, Nina H

2017-06-01

In populations occupying discrete habitat patches, gene flow between habitat patches may form an intricate population structure. In such structures, the evolutionary dynamics resulting from interaction of gene-flow patterns with other evolutionary forces may be exceedingly complex. Several models describing gene flow between discrete habitat patches have been presented in the population-genetics literature; however, these models have usually addressed relatively simple settings of habitable patches and have stopped short of providing general methodologies for addressing nontrivial gene-flow patterns. In the last decades, network theory - a branch of discrete mathematics concerned with complex interactions between discrete elements - has been applied to address several problems in population genetics by modelling gene flow between habitat patches using networks. Here, we present the idea and concepts of modelling complex gene flows in discrete habitats using networks. Our goal is to raise awareness to existing network theory applications in molecular ecology studies, as well as to outline the current and potential contribution of network methods to the understanding of evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats. We review the main branches of network theory that have been, or that we believe potentially could be, applied to population genetics and molecular ecology research. We address applications to theoretical modelling and to empirical population-genetic studies, and we highlight future directions for extending the integration of network science with molecular ecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Garmestiani, Ahjond S.; Sundstrom, Shana; Angeler, David G.

2016-01-01

Resilience is the capacity of complex systems of people and nature to withstand disturbance without shifting into an alternate regime, or a different type of system organized around different processes and structures (Holling, 1973). Resilience theory was developed to explain the non-linear dynamics of complex adaptive systems, like social-ecological systems (SES) (Walker & Salt, 2006). It is often apparent when the resilience of a SES has been exceeded as the system discernibly changes, such as when a thriving city shifts into a poverty trap, but it is difficult to predict when that shift might occur because of the non-linear dynamics of complex systems. Ecological resilience should not be confused with engineering resilience (Angeler & Allen, 2016), which emphasizes the ability of a SES to perform a specific task consistently and predictably, and to re-establish performance quickly should a disturbance occur. Engineering resilience assumes that complex systems are characterized by a single equilibrium state, and this assumption is not appropriate for complex adaptive systems such as SES. In the risk governance context this means that compounded perturbations derived from hazards or global change can have unexpected and highly uncertain effects on natural resources, humans and societies. These effects can manifest in regime shifts, potentially spurring environmental degradation that might lock SES in an undesirable system state that can be difficult to reverse, and as a consequence economic crises, conflict, human health problems.

[Research progress on remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China].

PubMed

Teng, Ming-jun; Zeng, Li-xiong; Xiao, Wen-fa; Zhou, Zhi-xiang; Huang, Zhi-lin; Wang, Peng-cheng; Dian, Yuan-yong

2014-12-01

The Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR area) , one of the most sensitive ecological zones in China, has dramatically changes in ecosystem configurations and services driven by the Three Gorges Engineering Project and its related human activities. Thus, understanding the dynamics of ecosystem configurations, ecological processes and ecosystem services is an attractive and critical issue to promote regional ecological security of the TGR area. The remote sensing of environment is a promising approach to the target and is thus increasingly applied to and ecosystem dynamics of the TGR area on mid- and macro-scales. However, current researches often showed controversial results in ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area due to the differences in remote sensing data, scale, and land-use/cover classification. Due to the complexity of ecological configurations and human activities, challenges still exist in the remote-sensing based research of ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area. The purpose of this review was to summarize the research advances in remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area. The status, challenges and trends of ecological and environmental remote-sensing in the TGR area were further discussed and concluded in the aspect of land-use/land-cover, vegetation dynamics, soil and water security, ecosystem services, ecosystem health and its management. The further researches on the remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes were proposed to improve the ecosystem management of the TGR area.

Chaos and insect ecology

Treesearch

Jesse A. Logan; Fred P. Hain

1990-01-01

Recent advances in applied mathematical analysis have uncovered a fascinating and unexpected dynamical richness that underlies behavior of even the simplest non-linear mathematical models. Due to the complexity of solutions to these non-linear equations, a new mathematical term, chaos, has been coined to describe the resulting dynamics. This term captures the notion...

Equation-free modeling unravels the behavior of complex ecological systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

2015-01-01

Ye et al. (1) address a critical problem confronting the management of natural ecosystems: How can we make forecasts of possible future changes in populations to help guide management actions? This problem is especially acute for marine and anadromous fisheries, where the large interannual fluctuations of populations, arising from complex nonlinear interactions among species and with varying environmental factors, have defied prediction over even short time scales. The empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) described in Ye et al.’s report, the latest in a series of papers by Sugihara and his colleagues, offers a promising quantitative approach to building models using time series to successfully project dynamics into the future. With the term “equation-free” in the article title, Ye et al. (1) are suggesting broader implications of their approach, considering the centrality of equations in modern science. From the 1700s on, nature has been increasingly described by mathematical equations, with differential or difference equations forming the basic framework for describing dynamics. The use of mathematical equations for ecological systems came much later, pioneered by Lotka and Volterra, who showed that population cycles might be described in terms of simple coupled nonlinear differential equations. It took decades for Lotka–Volterra-type models to become established, but the development of appropriate differential equations is now routine in modeling ecological dynamics. There is no question that the injection of mathematical equations, by forcing “clarity and precision into conjecture” (2), has led to increased understanding of population and community dynamics. As in science in general, in ecology equations are a key method of communication and of framing hypotheses. These equations serve as compact representations of an enormous amount of empirical data and can be analyzed by the powerful methods of mathematics.

A hierarchical approach for simulating northern forest dynamics

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg; David W. Roberts; Thomas R. Crow

2004-01-01

Complexity in ecological systems has challenged forest simulation modelers for years, resulting in a number of approaches with varying degrees of success. Arguments in favor of hierarchical modeling are made, especially for considering a complex environmental issue like widespread eastern hemlock regeneration failure. We present the philosophy and basic framework for...

High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn.

PubMed

Ives, Anthony R; Einarsson, Arni; Jansen, Vincent A A; Gardarsson, Arnthor

2008-03-06

Complex dynamics are often shown by simple ecological models and have been clearly demonstrated in laboratory and natural systems. Yet many classes of theoretically possible dynamics are still poorly documented in nature. Here we study long-term time-series data of a midge, Tanytarsus gracilentus (Diptera: Chironomidae), in Lake Myvatn, Iceland. The midge undergoes density fluctuations of almost six orders of magnitude. Rather than regular cycles, however, these fluctuations have irregular periods of 4-7 years, indicating complex dynamics. We fit three consumer-resource models capable of qualitatively distinct dynamics to the data. Of these, the best-fitting model shows alternative dynamical states in the absence of environmental variability; depending on the initial midge densities, the model shows either fluctuations around a fixed point or high-amplitude cycles. This explains the observed complex population dynamics: high-amplitude but irregular fluctuations occur because stochastic variability causes the dynamics to switch between domains of attraction to the alternative states. In the model, the amplitude of fluctuations depends strongly on minute resource subsidies into the midge habitat. These resource subsidies may be sensitive to human-caused changes in the hydrology of the lake, with human impacts such as dredging leading to higher-amplitude fluctuations. Tanytarsus gracilentus is a key component of the Myvatn ecosystem, representing two-thirds of the secondary productivity of the lake and providing vital food resources to fish and to breeding bird populations. Therefore the high-amplitude, irregular fluctuations in midge densities generated by alternative dynamical states dominate much of the ecology of the lake.

Time-dependent extinction rate and species abundance in a tangled-nature model of biological evolution.

PubMed

Hall, Matt; Christensen, Kim; di Collobiano, Simone A; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

2002-07-01

We present a model of evolutionary ecology consisting of a web of interacting individuals, a tangle-nature model. The reproduction rate of individuals characterized by their genome depends on the composition of the population in genotype space. Ecological features such as the taxonomy and the macroevolutionary mode of the dynamics are emergent properties. The macrodynamics exhibit intermittent two-mode switching with a gradually decreasing extinction rate. The generated ecologies become gradually better adapted as well as more complex in a collective sense. The form of the species abundance curve compares well with observed functional forms. The model's error threshold can be understood in terms of the characteristics of the two dynamical modes of the system.

Fragmentation alters stream fish community structure in dendritic ecological networks.

PubMed

Perkin, Joshuah S; Gido, Keith B

2012-12-01

Effects of fragmentation on the ecology of organisms occupying dendritic ecological networks (DENs) have recently been described through both conceptual and mathematical models, but few hypotheses have been tested in complex, real-world ecosystems. Stream fishes provide a model system for assessing effects of fragmentation on the structure of communities occurring within DENs, including how fragmentation alters metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity. A recently developed habitat-availability measure, the "dendritic connectivity index" (DCI), allows for assigning quantitative measures of connectivity in DENs regardless of network extent or complexity, and might be used to predict fish community response to fragmentation. We characterized stream fish community structure in 12 DENs in the Great Plains, USA, during periods of dynamic (summer) and muted (fall) discharge regimes to test the DCI as a predictive model of fish community response to fragmentation imposed by road crossings. Results indicated that fish communities in stream segments isolated by road crossings had reduced species richness (alpha diversity) relative to communities that maintained connectivity with the surrounding DEN during summer and fall. Furthermore, isolated communities had greater dissimilarity (beta diversity) to downstream sites notisolated by road crossings during summer and fall. Finally, dissimilarity among communities within DENs decreased as a function of increased habitat connectivity (measured using the DCI) for summer and fall, suggesting that communities within highly connected DENs tend to be more homogeneous. Our results indicate that the DCI is sensitive to community effects of fragmentation in riverscapes and might be used by managers to predict ecological responses to changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, our findings illustrate that relating structural connectivity of riverscapes to functional connectivity among communities might aid in maintaining metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity in complex dendritic ecosystems.

Allometric scaling enhances stability in complex food webs.

PubMed

Brose, Ulrich; Williams, Richard J; Martinez, Neo D

2006-11-01

Classic local stability theory predicts that complex ecological networks are unstable and are unlikely to persist despite empiricists' abundant documentation of such complexity in nature. This contradiction has puzzled biologists for decades. While some have explored how stability may be achieved in small modules of a few interacting species, rigorous demonstrations of how large complex and ecologically realistic networks dynamically persist remain scarce and inadequately understood. Here, we help fill this void by combining structural models of complex food webs with nonlinear bioenergetic models of population dynamics parameterized by biological rates that are allometrically scaled to populations' average body masses. Increasing predator-prey body mass ratios increase population persistence up to a saturation level that is reached by invertebrate and ectotherm vertebrate predators when being 10 or 100 times larger than their prey respectively. These values are corroborated by empirical predator-prey body mass ratios from a global data base. Moreover, negative effects of diversity (i.e. species richness) on stability (i.e. population persistence) become neutral or positive relationships at these empirical ratios. These results demonstrate that the predator-prey body mass ratios found in nature may be key to enabling persistence of populations in complex food webs and stabilizing the diversity of natural ecosystems.

Approaches to understanding the impact of life-history features on plant-pathogen co-evolutionary dynamics

Treesearch

Jeremy J. Burdon; Peter H. Thrall; Adnane Nemri

2012-01-01

Natural plant-pathogen associations are complex interactions in which the interplay of environment, host, and pathogen factors results in spatially heterogeneous ecological and epidemiological dynamics. The evolutionary patterns that result from the interaction of these factors are still relatively poorly understood. Recently, integration of the appropriate spatial and...

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

2005-01-01

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.

2005-01-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential-equation and difference-equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis for IBMs by describing five major types of individual variation in IBMs: spatial, ontogenetic, phenotypic, cognitive, and genetic. IBMs are now used in almost all subfields of ecology and evolutionary biology. We map those subfields and look more closely at selected key papers on fish recruitment, forest dynamics, sympatric speciation, metapopulation dynamics, maintenance of diversity, and species conservation. Theorists are currently divided on whether IBMs represent only a practical tool for extending classical theory to more complex situations, or whether individual-based theory represents a radically new research program. We feel that the tension between these two poles of thinking can be a source of creativity in ecology and evolutionary theory.

Transdisciplinary Application of Cross-Scale Resilience ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The cross-scale resilience model was developed in ecology to explain the emergence of resilience from the distribution of ecological functions within and across scales, and as a tool to assess resilience. We propose that the model and the underlyingdiscontinuity hypothesis are relevant to other complex adaptive systems, and can be used to identify and track changes in system parameters related to resilience. We explain the theory behind the cross-scale resilience model, review the cases where it has been applied to non-ecological systems, and discuss some examples of social-ecological, archaeological/anthropological, and economic systems where a cross-scale resilience analysis could add a quantitative dimension to our current understanding of system dynamics and resilience. We argue that the scaling and diversity parameters suitable for a resilience analysis of ecological systems are appropriate for a broad suite of systems where non-normative quantitative assessments of resilience are desired. Our planet is currently characterized by fast environmental and social change, and the cross-scale resilience model has the potential to quantify resilience across many types of complex adaptive systems. Comparative analyses of complex systems have, in fact, demonstrated commonalities among distinctly different types of systems (Schneider & Kay 1994; Holling 2001; Lansing 2003; Foster 2005; Bullmore et al. 2009). Both biological and non-biological complex systems appear t

Analytical approximation of a stochastic, spatial simulation model of fire and forest landscape dynamics

Treesearch

A.J. Tepley; E.A. Thomann

2012-01-01

Recent increases in computation power have prompted enormous growth in the use of simulation models in ecological research. These models are valued for their ability to account for much of the ecological complexity found in field studies, but this ability usually comes at the cost of losing transparency into how the models work. In order to foster greater understanding...

Promoting community socio-ecological sustainability through technology: A case study from Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguayo, Claudio; Eames, Chris

2017-12-01

The importance of community learning in effecting social change towards ecological sustainability has been recognised for some time. More recently, the use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools to promote socio-ecological sustainability has been shown to have potential in community education for sustainable development (ESD). The effective design and use of technology for community learning implies an understanding of a range of cross-dimensional factors including: socio-cultural characteristics and needs of the target audience; considerations of available and culturally responsive types of technology; and non-formal pedagogical ESD strategies for community empowerment. In addition, both technology itself and social communities are dynamically evolving and complex entities. This article presents a case study which evaluated the potential of ICT for promoting ecological literacy and action competence amongst community members in southern Chile. The case study addressed the ecological deterioration of a lake, which is having deep social, economic, recreational and cultural implications locally. The authors' research involved developing a theoretical framework for the design, implementation and use of ICT for community learning for sustainability. The framework was based on key ideas from ESD, ICT and community education, and was underpinned by a systems thinking approach to account for the dynamism and complexity of such settings. Activity theory provided a frame to address overarching socio-cultural elements when using technology as a mediating tool for community learning. The authors' findings suggest that the use of an ICT tool, such as a website, can enhance ecological literacy in relation to a local socio-ecological issue.

Application of system dynamics and participatory spatial group model building in animal health: A case study of East Coast Fever interventions in Lundazi and Monze districts of Zambia

PubMed Central

Skjerve, Eystein; Rich, Magda; Rich, Karl M.

2017-01-01

East Coast Fever (ECF) is the most economically important production disease among traditional beef cattle farmers in Zambia. Despite the disease control efforts by the government, donors, and farmers, ECF cases are increasing. Why does ECF oscillate over time? Can alternative approaches such as systems thinking contribute solutions to the complex ECF problem, avoid unintended consequences, and achieve sustainable results? To answer these research questions and inform the design and implementation of ECF interventions, we qualitatively investigated the influence of dynamic socio-economic, cultural, and ecological factors. We used system dynamics modelling to specify these dynamics qualitatively, and an innovative participatory framework called spatial group model building (SGMB). SGMB uses participatory geographical information system (GIS) concepts and techniques to capture the role of spatial phenomenon in the context of complex systems, allowing stakeholders to identify spatial phenomenon directly on physical maps and integrate such information in model development. Our SGMB process convened focus groups of beef value chain stakeholders in two distinct production systems. The focus groups helped to jointly construct a series of interrelated system dynamics models that described ECF in a broader systems context. Thus, a complementary objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of system dynamics modelling and SGMB in animal health. The SGMB process revealed policy leverage points in the beef cattle value chain that could be targeted to improve ECF control. For example, policies that develop sustainable and stable cattle markets and improve household income availability may have positive feedback effects on investment in animal health. The results obtained from a SGMB process also demonstrated that a “one-size-fits-all” approach may not be equally effective in policing ECF in different agro-ecological zones due to the complex interactions of socio-ecological context with important, and often ignored, spatial patterns. PMID:29244862

Application of system dynamics and participatory spatial group model building in animal health: A case study of East Coast Fever interventions in Lundazi and Monze districts of Zambia.

PubMed

Mumba, Chisoni; Skjerve, Eystein; Rich, Magda; Rich, Karl M

2017-01-01

East Coast Fever (ECF) is the most economically important production disease among traditional beef cattle farmers in Zambia. Despite the disease control efforts by the government, donors, and farmers, ECF cases are increasing. Why does ECF oscillate over time? Can alternative approaches such as systems thinking contribute solutions to the complex ECF problem, avoid unintended consequences, and achieve sustainable results? To answer these research questions and inform the design and implementation of ECF interventions, we qualitatively investigated the influence of dynamic socio-economic, cultural, and ecological factors. We used system dynamics modelling to specify these dynamics qualitatively, and an innovative participatory framework called spatial group model building (SGMB). SGMB uses participatory geographical information system (GIS) concepts and techniques to capture the role of spatial phenomenon in the context of complex systems, allowing stakeholders to identify spatial phenomenon directly on physical maps and integrate such information in model development. Our SGMB process convened focus groups of beef value chain stakeholders in two distinct production systems. The focus groups helped to jointly construct a series of interrelated system dynamics models that described ECF in a broader systems context. Thus, a complementary objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of system dynamics modelling and SGMB in animal health. The SGMB process revealed policy leverage points in the beef cattle value chain that could be targeted to improve ECF control. For example, policies that develop sustainable and stable cattle markets and improve household income availability may have positive feedback effects on investment in animal health. The results obtained from a SGMB process also demonstrated that a "one-size-fits-all" approach may not be equally effective in policing ECF in different agro-ecological zones due to the complex interactions of socio-ecological context with important, and often ignored, spatial patterns.

Classroom-Oriented Research from a Complex Systems Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larsen-Freeman, Diane

2016-01-01

Bringing a complex systems perspective to bear on classroom-oriented research challenges researchers to think differently, seeing the classroom ecology as one dynamic system nested in a hierarchy of such systems at different levels of scale, all of which are spatially and temporally situated. This article begins with an introduction to complex…

Increasing connectivity between metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology.

PubMed

Howell, Paige E; Muths, Erin; Hossack, Blake R; Sigafus, Brent H; Chandler, Richard B

2018-05-01

Metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology aim to understand how spatial structure influences ecological processes, yet these disciplines address the problem using fundamentally different modeling approaches. Metapopulation models describe how the spatial distribution of patches affects colonization and extinction, but often do not account for the heterogeneity in the landscape between patches. Models in landscape ecology use detailed descriptions of landscape structure, but often without considering colonization and extinction dynamics. We present a novel spatially explicit modeling framework for narrowing the divide between these disciplines to advance understanding of the effects of landscape structure on metapopulation dynamics. Unlike previous efforts, this framework allows for statistical inference on landscape resistance to colonization using empirical data. We demonstrate the approach using 11 yr of data on a threatened amphibian in a desert ecosystem. Occupancy data for Lithobates chiricahuensis (Chiricahua leopard frog) were collected on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Arizona, USA from 2007 to 2017 following a reintroduction in 2003. Results indicated that colonization dynamics were influenced by both patch characteristics and landscape structure. Landscape resistance increased with increasing elevation and distance to the nearest streambed. Colonization rate was also influenced by patch quality, with semi-permanent and permanent ponds contributing substantially more to the colonization of neighboring ponds relative to intermittent ponds. Ponds that only hold water intermittently also had the highest extinction rate. Our modeling framework can be widely applied to understand metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes, particularly in systems in which the environment between habitat patches influences the colonization process. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

The Correlation of Geo-Ecological Environment and Mountain Urban planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chun; Zeng, Wei

2018-01-01

As a special area with the complex geological structure, mountain city is more prone to geological disasters. Due to air pollution, ground subsidence, serious water pollution, earthquakes and floods geo-ecological environment problems have become increasingly serious, mountain urban planning is facing more severe challenges. Therefore, this article bases on the correlation research of geo-ecological environment and mountain urban planning, and re-examins mountain urban planning from the perspective of geo-ecological, coordinates the relationship between the human and nature by geo-ecological thinking, raises the questions which urban planning need to pay attention. And advocates creating an integrated system of geo-ecological and mountain urban planning, analysis the status and dynamics of present mountain urban planning.

Land use diversification and intensification on elk winter range in Greater Yellowstone: A framework and agenda for social-ecological research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haggerty, Julia Hobson; Epstein, Kathleen; Stone, Michael; Cross, Paul

2018-01-01

Amenity migration describes the movement of peoples to rural landscapes and the transition toward tourism and recreation and away from production-oriented land uses (ranching, timber harvesting). The resulting mosaic of land uses and community structures has important consequences for wildlife and their management. This research note examines amenity-driven changes to social-ecological systems in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, specifically in lower elevations that serve as winter habitat for elk. We present a research agenda informed by a preliminary and exploratory mixed-methods investigation: the creation of a “social-impact” index of land use change on elk winter range and a focus group with wildlife management experts. Our findings suggest that elk are encountering an increasingly diverse landscape with respect to land use, while new ownership patterns increase the complexity of social and community dynamics. These factors, in turn, contribute to increasing difficulty meeting wildlife management objectives. To deal with rising complexity across social and ecological landscapes of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, future research will focus on property life cycle dynamics, as well as systems approaches.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling.

PubMed

Ganju, Neil K; Brush, Mark J; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L; Del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S; Harris, Lora A; Lake, Samuel J; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K; Signell, Richard P; Testa, Jeremy M; Vaudrey, Jamie M P

2016-03-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a "theory of everything" for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy; Vaudrey, Jamie M. P.

2016-01-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

PubMed Central

Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O’Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy M.; Vaudrey, Jamie M.P.

2016-01-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy. PMID:27721675

A Landscape Indicator Approach to the Identification and Articulation of the Ecological Consequences of Land Cover Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, 1970-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, Terrence

2008-01-01

The advancement of geographic science in the area of land surface status and trends and land cover change is at the core of the current geographic scientific research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (McMahon and others, 2005). Perhaps the least developed or articulated aspects of USGS land change science have been the identification and analysis of the ecological consequences of land cover change. Changes in land use and land cover significantly affect the ability of ecosystems to provide essential ecological goods and services, which, in turn, affect the economic, public health, and social benefits that these ecosystems provide. One of the great scientific challenges for geographic science is to understand and calibrate the effects of land use and land cover change and the complex interaction between human and biotic systems at a variety of natural, geographic, and political scales. Understanding the dynamics of land surface change requires an increased understanding of the complex nature of human-environmental systems and will require a suite of scientific tools that include traditional geographic data and analysis methods, such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), as well as innovative approaches to understanding the dynamics of complex systems. One such approach that has gained much recent scientific attention is the landscape indicator, or landscape assessment, approach, which has been developed with the emergence of the science of landscape ecology.

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hui; Fogarty, Michael J.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Glaser, Sarah M.; Ye, Hao; Deyle, Ethan; Sugihara, George

2014-03-01

The dynamics of marine fishes are closely related to lower trophic levels and the environment. Quantitatively understanding ecosystem dynamics linking environmental variability and prey resources to exploited fishes is crucial for ecosystem-based management of marine living resources. However, standard statistical models typically grounded in the concept of linear system may fail to capture the complexity of ecological processes. We have attempted to model ecosystem dynamics using a flexible, nonparametric class of nonlinear forecasting models. We analyzed annual time series of four environmental indices, 22 marine copepod taxa, and four ecologically and commercially important fish species during 1977 to 2009 on Georges Bank, a highly productive and intensively studied area of the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. We examined the underlying dynamic features of environmental indices and copepods, quantified the dynamic interactions and coherence with fishes, and explored the potential control mechanisms of ecosystem dynamics from a nonlinear perspective. We found: (1) the dynamics of marine copepods and environmental indices exhibiting clear nonlinearity; (2) little evidence of complex dynamics across taxonomic levels of copepods; (3) strong dynamic interactions and coherence between copepods and fishes; and (4) the bottom-up forcing of fishes and top-down control of copepods coexisting as target trophic levels vary. These findings highlight the nonlinear interactions among ecosystem components and the importance of marine zooplankton to fish populations which point to two forcing mechanisms likely interactively regulating the ecosystem dynamics on Georges Bank under a changing environment.

How long can global ecological overshoot last?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McBain, Bonnie; Lenzen, Manfred; Wackernagel, Mathis; Albrecht, Glenn

2017-08-01

The ability of the Ecological Footprint to communicate complex environmental information in a clear and accessible way is well known; however, with growing environmental complexity, we will require increasingly sophisticated environmental indicators to inform our decisions. We have developed an integrated and dynamic global model to investigate future trajectories of the Ecological Footprint. Under a range of futures and without the mitigation of human resource demand, we find that the discrepancy between global demand and renewable supply of resources is likely to increase. Continued overshoot, although possible in the short term, means the global community is increasingly exposed to risks of environmental collapse due to the approach of at least two planetary boundaries relating to land use expansion and climate change. We show that, the Ecological Footprint trajectory and the time between the commencement of ecological overshoot and ecological collapse is sensitive to global technological, economic and population policy decisions. Importantly, this work presents a tool which can be used to support transdisciplinary decision-maker collaborations examining the risk associated with alternative policy options in the face of uncertainty at multiple scales.

Rivers are social–ecological systems: Time to integrate human dimensions into riverscape ecology and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Jason B.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Crausbay, Shelley D.; Cravens, Amanda; Gosnell, Hannah; McEvoy, Jamie; Moritz, Max A.; Raheem, Nejem; Sanford, Todd

2018-01-01

Incorporation of concepts from landscape ecology into understanding and managing riverine ecosystems has become widely known as riverscape ecology. Riverscape ecology emphasizes interactions among processes at different scales and their consequences for valued ecosystem components, such as riverine fishes. Past studies have focused strongly on understanding the ecological processes in riverscapes and how human actions modify those processes. It is increasingly clear, however, that an understanding of the drivers behind actions that lead to human modification also merit consideration, especially regarding how those drivers influence management efficacy. These indirect drivers of riverscape outcomes can be understood in the context of a diverse array of social processes, which we collectively refer to as human dimensions. Like ecological phenomena, social processes also exhibit complex interactions across spatiotemporal scales. Greater emphasis on feedbacks between social and ecological processes will lead scientists and managers to more completely understand riverscapes as complex, dynamic, interacting social–ecological systems. Emerging applications in riverscapes, as well as studies of other ecosystems, provide examples that can lead to stronger integration of social and ecological science. We argue that conservation successes within riverscapes may not come from better ecological science, improved ecosystem service analyses, or even economic incentives if the fundamental drivers of human behaviors are not understood and addressed in conservation planning and implementation.

Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

PubMed Central

Feng, Huirong; Lim, C. W.; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

2014-01-01

The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony. PMID:25254225

Sustainable deforestation evaluation model and system dynamics analysis.

PubMed

Feng, Huirong; Lim, C W; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

2014-01-01

The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

Relative importance of evolutionary dynamics depends on the composition of microbial predator-prey community.

PubMed

Friman, Ville-Petri; Dupont, Alessandra; Bass, David; Murrell, David J; Bell, Thomas

2016-06-01

Community dynamics are often studied in subsets of pairwise interactions. Scaling pairwise interactions back to the community level is, however, problematic because one given interaction might not reflect ecological and evolutionary outcomes of other functionally similar species interactions or capture the emergent eco-evolutionary dynamics arising only in more complex communities. Here we studied this experimentally by exposing Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 prey bacterium to four different protist predators (Tetrahymena pyriformis, Tetrahymena vorax, Chilomonas paramecium and Acanthamoeba polyphaga) in all possible single-predator, two-predator and four-predator communities for hundreds of prey generations covering both ecological and evolutionary timescales. We found that only T. pyriformis selected for prey defence in single-predator communities. Although T. pyriformis selection was constrained in the presence of the intraguild predator, T. vorax, T. pyriformis selection led to evolution of specialised prey defence strategies in the presence of C. paramecium or A. polyphaga. At the ecological level, adapted prey populations were phenotypically more diverse, less stable and less productive compared with non-adapted prey populations. These results suggest that predator community composition affects the relative importance of ecological and evolutionary processes and can crucially determine when rapid evolution has the potential to change ecological properties of microbial communities.

Relative importance of evolutionary dynamics depends on the composition of microbial predator–prey community

PubMed Central

Friman, Ville-Petri; Dupont, Alessandra; Bass, David; Murrell, David J; Bell, Thomas

2016-01-01

Community dynamics are often studied in subsets of pairwise interactions. Scaling pairwise interactions back to the community level is, however, problematic because one given interaction might not reflect ecological and evolutionary outcomes of other functionally similar species interactions or capture the emergent eco-evolutionary dynamics arising only in more complex communities. Here we studied this experimentally by exposing Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 prey bacterium to four different protist predators (Tetrahymena pyriformis, Tetrahymena vorax, Chilomonas paramecium and Acanthamoeba polyphaga) in all possible single-predator, two-predator and four-predator communities for hundreds of prey generations covering both ecological and evolutionary timescales. We found that only T. pyriformis selected for prey defence in single-predator communities. Although T. pyriformis selection was constrained in the presence of the intraguild predator, T. vorax, T. pyriformis selection led to evolution of specialised prey defence strategies in the presence of C. paramecium or A. polyphaga. At the ecological level, adapted prey populations were phenotypically more diverse, less stable and less productive compared with non-adapted prey populations. These results suggest that predator community composition affects the relative importance of ecological and evolutionary processes and can crucially determine when rapid evolution has the potential to change ecological properties of microbial communities. PMID:26684728

Ecological hierarchies and self-organisation - Pattern analysis, modelling and process integration across scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reuter, H.; Jopp, F.; Blanco-Moreno, J. M.; Damgaard, C.; Matsinos, Y.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2010-01-01

A continuing discussion in applied and theoretical ecology focuses on the relationship of different organisational levels and on how ecological systems interact across scales. We address principal approaches to cope with complex across-level issues in ecology by applying elements of hierarchy theory and the theory of complex adaptive systems. A top-down approach, often characterised by the use of statistical techniques, can be applied to analyse large-scale dynamics and identify constraints exerted on lower levels. Current developments are illustrated with examples from the analysis of within-community spatial patterns and large-scale vegetation patterns. A bottom-up approach allows one to elucidate how interactions of individuals shape dynamics at higher levels in a self-organisation process; e.g., population development and community composition. This may be facilitated by various modelling tools, which provide the distinction between focal levels and resulting properties. For instance, resilience in grassland communities has been analysed with a cellular automaton approach, and the driving forces in rodent population oscillations have been identified with an agent-based model. Both modelling tools illustrate the principles of analysing higher level processes by representing the interactions of basic components.The focus of most ecological investigations on either top-down or bottom-up approaches may not be appropriate, if strong cross-scale relationships predominate. Here, we propose an 'across-scale-approach', closely interweaving the inherent potentials of both approaches. This combination of analytical and synthesising approaches will enable ecologists to establish a more coherent access to cross-level interactions in ecological systems. ?? 2010 Gesellschaft f??r ??kologie.

Computational pathology: Exploring the spatial dimension of tumor ecology.

PubMed

Nawaz, Sidra; Yuan, Yinyin

2016-09-28

Tumors are evolving ecosystems where cancer subclones and the microenvironment interact. This is analogous to interaction dynamics between species in their natural habitats, which is a prime area of study in ecology. Spatial statistics are frequently used in ecological studies to infer complex relations including predator-prey, resource dependency and co-evolution. Recently, the emerging field of computational pathology has enabled high-throughput spatial analysis by using image processing to identify different cell types and their locations within histological tumor samples. We discuss how these data may be analyzed with spatial statistics used in ecology to reveal patterns and advance our understanding of ecological interactions occurring among cancer cells and their microenvironment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology

PubMed Central

Gurley, Emily S.

2017-01-01

Human factors, including contact structure, movement, impact on the environment and patterns of behaviour, can have significant influence on the emergence of novel infectious diseases and the transmission and amplification of established ones. As anthropogenic climate change alters natural systems and global economic forces drive land-use and land-cover change, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the ecological and social factors that impact infectious disease outcomes for human populations. While the field of disease ecology explicitly studies the ecological aspects of infectious disease transmission, the effects of the social context on zoonotic pathogen spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission are comparatively neglected in the literature. The social sciences encompass a variety of disciplines and frameworks for understanding infectious diseases; however, here we focus on four primary areas of social systems that quantitatively and qualitatively contribute to infectious diseases as social–ecological systems. These areas are social mixing and structure, space and mobility, geography and environmental impact, and behaviour and behaviour change. Incorporation of these social factors requires empirical studies for parametrization, phenomena characterization and integrated theoretical modelling of social–ecological interactions. The social–ecological system that dictates infectious disease dynamics is a complex system rich in interacting variables with dynamically significant heterogeneous properties. Future discussions about infectious disease spillover and transmission in human populations need to address the social context that affects particular disease systems by identifying and measuring qualitatively important drivers. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289265

A Simple Model for Complex Dynamical Transitions in Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earn, David J. D.; Rohani, Pejman; Bolker, Benjamin M.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2000-01-01

Dramatic changes in patterns of epidemics have been observed throughout this century. For childhood infectious diseases such as measles, the major transitions are between regular cycles and irregular, possibly chaotic epidemics, and from regionally synchronized oscillations to complex, spatially incoherent epidemics. A simple model can explain both kinds of transitions as the consequences of changes in birth and vaccination rates. Measles is a natural ecological system that exhibits different dynamical transitions at different times and places, yet all of these transitions can be predicted as bifurcations of a single nonlinear model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whicker, Jeffrey J; Field, Jason P; Belnap, Jayne

Emission and redistribution of dust due to wind erosion in drylands drives major biogeochemical dynamics and provides important aeolian environmental connectivity at scales from individual plants up to the global scale. Yet, perhaps because most relevant research on aeolian processes has been presented in a geosciences rather than ecological context, most ecological studies do not explicitly consider dust-driven processes. To bridge this disciplinary gap, we provide a general overview of the ecological importance of dust, examine complex interactions between wind erosion and ecosystem dynamics from the plant-interspace scale to regional and global scales, and highlight specific examples of how disturbancemore » affects these interactions and their consequences. Changes in climate and intensification of land use will both likely lead to increased dust production. To address these challenges, environmental scientists, land managers and policy makers need to more explicitly consider dust in resource management decisions.« less

Ecological characterization and molecular differentiation of Culex pipiens complex taxa and Culex torrentium in eastern Austria.

PubMed

Zittra, Carina; Flechl, Eva; Kothmayer, Michael; Vitecek, Simon; Rossiter, Heidemarie; Zechmeister, Thomas; Fuehrer, Hans-Peter

2016-04-11

Culex pipiens complex taxa differ in behaviour, ecophysiology and epidemiologic importance. Despite their epidemiologic significance, information on genetic diversity, occurrence and seasonal and spatial distribution patterns of the Cx. pipiens complex is still insufficient. Assessment of seasonal and spatial distribution patterns of Culex pipiens forms and their congener Cx. torrentium is crucial for the understanding of their vector-pathogen dynamics. Female mosquitoes were trapped from April-October 2014 twice a month for a 24-h time period with BG-sentinel traps at 24 sampling sites in eastern Austria, using carbon dioxide as attractant. Ecological forms of Cx. pipiens s.l. and their hybrids were differentiated using the CQ11 locus, and Cx. pipiens forms and their congener Cx. torrentium using the ACE-2 gene. Differential exploitation of ecological niches by Cx. pipiens forms and Cx. torrentium was analysed using likelihood ratio tests. Possible effects of environmental parameters on these taxa were tested using PERMANOVA based on distance matrices and, if significant, were modelled in nMDS ordination space to estimate non-linear relationships. For this study, 1476 Culex spp. were sampled. Culex pipiens f. pipiens representing 87.33 % of the total catch was most abundant, followed by hybrids of both forms (5.62 %), Cx. torrentium (3.79 %) and Cx. pipiens f. molestus (3.25 %). Differences in proportional abundances were found between land cover classes. Ecological parameters affecting seasonal and spatial distribution of these taxa in eastern Austria are precipitation duration, air temperature, sunlight and the interaction term of precipitation amount and the Danube water level, which can be interpreted as a proxy for breeding habitat availability. The Cx. pipiens complex of eastern Austria comprises both ecologically different forms, the mainly ornithophilic form pipiens and the mainly mammalophilic and anthropophilic form molestus. Heterogeneous agricultural areas as areas of coexistence may serve as hybridization zones, resulting in potential bridge vectors between birds and humans. Occurrence, seasonal and spatial distribution patterns of the Cx. pipiens complex and Cx. torrentium and the presence of hybrids between both forms were quantified for the first time in Austria. These findings will improve the knowledge of their vector-pathogen dynamics in this country.

Towards a Moral Ecology of Pharmacological Cognitive Enhancement in British Universities.

PubMed

Vagwala, Meghana Kasturi; Bicquelet, Aude; Didziokaite, Gabija; Coomber, Ross; Corrigan, Oonagh; Singh, Ilina

2017-01-01

Few empirical studies in the UK have examined the complex social patterns and values behind quantitative estimates of the prevalence of pharmacological cognitive enhancement (PCE). We conducted a qualitative investigation of the social dynamics and moral attitudes that shape PCE practices among university students in two major metropolitan areas in the UK. Our thematic analysis of eight focus groups ( n  = 66) suggests a moral ecology that operates within the social infrastructure of the university. We find that PCE resilience among UK university students is mediated by normative and cultural judgments disfavoring competitiveness and prescription drug taking. PCE risk can be augmented by social factors such as soft peer pressure and normalization of enhancement within social and institutional networks. We suggest that moral ecological dynamics should be viewed as key mechanisms of PCE risk and resilience in universities. Effective PCE governance within universities should therefore attend to developing further understanding of the moral ecologies of PCE.

Can you sequence ecology? Metagenomics of adaptive diversification.

PubMed

Marx, Christopher J

2013-01-01

Few areas of science have benefited more from the expansion in sequencing capability than the study of microbial communities. Can sequence data, besides providing hypotheses of the functions the members possess, detect the evolutionary and ecological processes that are occurring? For example, can we determine if a species is adapting to one niche, or if it is diversifying into multiple specialists that inhabit distinct niches? Fortunately, adaptation of populations in the laboratory can serve as a model to test our ability to make such inferences about evolution and ecology from sequencing. Even adaptation to a single niche can give rise to complex temporal dynamics due to the transient presence of multiple competing lineages. If there are multiple niches, this complexity is augmented by segmentation of the population into multiple specialists that can each continue to evolve within their own niche. For a known example of parallel diversification that occurred in the laboratory, sequencing data gave surprisingly few obvious, unambiguous signs of the ecological complexity present. Whereas experimental systems are open to direct experimentation to test hypotheses of selection or ecological interaction, the difficulty in "seeing ecology" from sequencing for even such a simple system suggests translation to communities like the human microbiome will be quite challenging. This will require both improved empirical methods to enhance the depth and time resolution for the relevant polymorphisms and novel statistical approaches to rigorously examine time-series data for signs of various evolutionary and ecological phenomena within and between species.

Transdisciplinary application of the cross-scale resilience model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sundstrom, Shana M.; Angeler, David G.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Garcia, Jorge H.; Allen, Craig R.

2014-01-01

The cross-scale resilience model was developed in ecology to explain the emergence of resilience from the distribution of ecological functions within and across scales, and as a tool to assess resilience. We propose that the model and the underlying discontinuity hypothesis are relevant to other complex adaptive systems, and can be used to identify and track changes in system parameters related to resilience. We explain the theory behind the cross-scale resilience model, review the cases where it has been applied to non-ecological systems, and discuss some examples of social-ecological, archaeological/ anthropological, and economic systems where a cross-scale resilience analysis could add a quantitative dimension to our current understanding of system dynamics and resilience. We argue that the scaling and diversity parameters suitable for a resilience analysis of ecological systems are appropriate for a broad suite of systems where non-normative quantitative assessments of resilience are desired. Our planet is currently characterized by fast environmental and social change, and the cross-scale resilience model has the potential to quantify resilience across many types of complex adaptive systems.

An overview of ecological monitoring based on geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Jia; Du, Xiangyang; Kang, Hou; Qiao, Minjuan

2017-11-01

Due to the rapid development of human economy and society, the resulting ecological problems are becoming more and more prominent, and the dynamic monitoring of the various elements in the ecosystem has become the focus of the current research. For the complex structure and function of the ecological environment monitoring, advanced technical means should be adopted. With the development of spatial information technology, the ecological monitoring technology based on GIS and RS is becoming more and more perfect, and spatial analysis will play an important role in the field of environmental protection. Based on the GIS and RS technology, this paper analyzes the general centralized ecological monitoring model, and makes an objective analysis of the current ecological monitoring trend of China. These are important for the protection and management of ecological environment in China.

Microbial bebop: creating music from complex dynamics in microbial ecology.

PubMed

Larsen, Peter; Gilbert, Jack

2013-01-01

In order for society to make effective policy decisions on complex and far-reaching subjects, such as appropriate responses to global climate change, scientists must effectively communicate complex results to the non-scientifically specialized public. However, there are few ways however to transform highly complicated scientific data into formats that are engaging to the general community. Taking inspiration from patterns observed in nature and from some of the principles of jazz bebop improvisation, we have generated Microbial Bebop, a method by which microbial environmental data are transformed into music. Microbial Bebop uses meter, pitch, duration, and harmony to highlight the relationships between multiple data types in complex biological datasets. We use a comprehensive microbial ecology, time course dataset collected at the L4 marine monitoring station in the Western English Channel as an example of microbial ecological data that can be transformed into music. Four compositions were generated (www.bio.anl.gov/MicrobialBebop.htm.) from L4 Station data using Microbial Bebop. Each composition, though deriving from the same dataset, is created to highlight different relationships between environmental conditions and microbial community structure. The approach presented here can be applied to a wide variety of complex biological datasets.

Understanding the psychology of bullying: Moving toward a social-ecological diathesis-stress model.

PubMed

Swearer, Susan M; Hymel, Shelley

2015-01-01

With growing recognition that bullying is a complex phenomenon, influenced by multiple factors, research findings to date have been understood within a social-ecological framework. Consistent with this model, we review research on the known correlates and contributing factors in bullying/victimization within the individual, family, peer group, school and community. Recognizing the fluid and dynamic nature of involvement in bullying, we then expand on this model and consider research on the consequences of bullying involvement, as either victim or bully or both, and propose a social-ecological, diathesis-stress model for understanding the bullying dynamic and its impact. Specifically, we frame involvement in bullying as a stressful life event for both children who bully and those who are victimized, serving as a catalyst for a diathesis-stress connection between bullying, victimization, and psychosocial difficulties. Against this backdrop, we suggest that effective bullying prevention and intervention efforts must take into account the complexities of the human experience, addressing both individual characteristics and history of involvement in bullying, risk and protective factors, and the contexts in which bullying occurs, in order to promote healthier social relationships. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Chapter 5. Dynamics of ponderosa and Jeffrey pine forests

Treesearch

Penelope Morgan

1994-01-01

Ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and Jeffrey pine (Pinus jefferyi) forests are ecologically diverse ecosystems. The communities and landscapes in which these trees dominate are variable and often complex. Because of the economic value of resources, people have used these forests extensively.

The big data-big model (BDBM) challenges in ecological research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.

2015-12-01

The field of ecology has become a big-data science in the past decades due to development of new sensors used in numerous studies in the ecological community. Many sensor networks have been established to collect data. For example, satellites, such as Terra and OCO-2 among others, have collected data relevant on global carbon cycle. Thousands of field manipulative experiments have been conducted to examine feedback of terrestrial carbon cycle to global changes. Networks of observations, such as FLUXNET, have measured land processes. In particular, the implementation of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), which is designed to network different kinds of sensors at many locations over the nation, will generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The raw data from sensors from those networks offer an unprecedented opportunity for accelerating advances in our knowledge of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, testing ecological theory, and forecasting changes in ecosystem services. Currently, ecologists do not have the infrastructure in place to synthesize massive yet heterogeneous data into resources for decision support. It is urgent to develop an ecological forecasting system that can make the best use of multiple sources of data to assess long-term biosphere change and anticipate future states of ecosystem services at regional and continental scales. Forecasting relies on big models that describe major processes that underlie complex system dynamics. Ecological system models, despite great simplification of the real systems, are still complex in order to address real-world problems. For example, Community Land Model (CLM) incorporates thousands of processes related to energy balance, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. Integration of massive data from multiple big data sources with complex models has to tackle Big Data-Big Model (BDBM) challenges. Those challenges include interoperability of multiple, heterogeneous data sets; intractability of structural complexity of big models; equifinality of model structure selection and parameter estimation; and computational demand of global optimization with Big Models.

Special Educators as Intervention Specialists: Dynamic Systems and the Complexity of Intensifying Intervention for Students With Emotional and Behavioral Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farmer, Thomas W.; Sutherland, Kevin S.; Talbott, Elizabeth; Brooks, Debbie S.; Norwalk, Kate; Huneke, Michelle

2016-01-01

We present a dynamic systems perspective for the intensification of interventions for students with emotional and behavioral disorders (EBD). With this framework, we suggest behavior involves the contributions of multiple factors and reflects the interplay between the characteristics of the student and the ecologies in which he or she is embedded.…

Complex Behavior of Contaminant Flux and the Ecology of the Lower Mississippi River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, C. C.; Manheim, F. T.; De Cola, L.; Bollinger, J. E.; Jenkins, J. A.

2001-12-01

This presentation is an overview of a collaborative NSF/USGS/Tulane funded multi-scale study of the Lower Mississippi River system. The study examines the system in three major dimensional realms: space, time, and complexity (systems and their hierarchies). Researchers at Tulane University and the U.S. Geological Survey have initiated a collaborative effort to undertake the study of interacting elements which directly or indirectly affect the water quality, ecology and physical condition of the Mississippi River. These researchers include experts in the fields of water quality chemistry, geochemistry, hydrologic modeling, bioengineering, biology, fish ecology, statistics, complexity analysis, epidemiology, and computer science. Underlying this research are large databases that permit quantitative analysis of the system over the past 40 years. Results to date show that the variation in discharge and the contaminant flux scale independently both exhibit fractal scaling, the signature geometry of nonlinear dynamical and complex systems. Public perception is that the Lower Mississippi River is a health hazard, but for the past decade, traditional water quality measurements show that contaminants are within current regulatory guidelines for human consumption. This difference between public perception and scientific reality represents a complex scientific and social issue. The connections and feedback within the ecological system and the Mississippi River are few because engineering structures isolate the lower Mississippi River from its surroundings. Investigation of the connections and feedback between human health and the ecological health of the River and the surrounding region as well as perceptions of these states of health - holds promise for explaining epidemiological patterns of human disease.

Qualitative assessment of climate-driven ecological shifts in the Caspian Sea

PubMed Central

Beyraghdar Kashkooli, Omid; Gröger, Joachim; Núñez-Riboni, Ismael

2017-01-01

The worldwide occurrence of complex climate-induced ecological shifts in marine systems is one of the major challenges in sustainable bio-resources management. The occurrence of ecological environment-driven shifts was studied in the Southern Caspian Sea using the “shiftogram” method on available fisheries-related (i.e. commercially important bentho-pelagic fish stocks) ecological and climatic variables. As indicators of potential environmentally driven shift patterns we used indices for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, the Siberian High, the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern, as well as Sea Surface Temperature and surface chlorophyll-a concentration. Given the explorative findings from the serial shift analyses, the cascading and serial order of multiple shift events in climatic-ecologic conditions of the southern Caspian Sea suggested a linkage between external forces and dynamics of ecosystem components and structures in the following order: global-scale climate forces lead to local environmental processes, which in turn lead to biological components dynamics. For the first time, this study indicates that ecological shifts are an integral component of bentho-pelagic subsystem regulatory processes and dynamics. Qualitative correspondence of biological responses of bentho-pelagic stocks to climatic events is one of the supporting evidences that overall Caspian ecosystem structures and functioning might have–at least partially–been impacted by global-scale climatic or local environmental shifts. These findings may help to foster a regional Ecosystem-based Approach to Management (EAM) as an integral part of bentho-pelagic fisheries management plans. PMID:28475609

Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology.

PubMed

Arthur, Ronan F; Gurley, Emily S; Salje, Henrik; Bloomfield, Laura S P; Jones, James H

2017-05-05

Human factors, including contact structure, movement, impact on the environment and patterns of behaviour, can have significant influence on the emergence of novel infectious diseases and the transmission and amplification of established ones. As anthropogenic climate change alters natural systems and global economic forces drive land-use and land-cover change, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the ecological and social factors that impact infectious disease outcomes for human populations. While the field of disease ecology explicitly studies the ecological aspects of infectious disease transmission, the effects of the social context on zoonotic pathogen spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission are comparatively neglected in the literature. The social sciences encompass a variety of disciplines and frameworks for understanding infectious diseases; however, here we focus on four primary areas of social systems that quantitatively and qualitatively contribute to infectious diseases as social-ecological systems. These areas are social mixing and structure, space and mobility, geography and environmental impact, and behaviour and behaviour change. Incorporation of these social factors requires empirical studies for parametrization, phenomena characterization and integrated theoretical modelling of social-ecological interactions. The social-ecological system that dictates infectious disease dynamics is a complex system rich in interacting variables with dynamically significant heterogeneous properties. Future discussions about infectious disease spillover and transmission in human populations need to address the social context that affects particular disease systems by identifying and measuring qualitatively important drivers.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Controls of Isotopic Patterns in Saprotrophic and Ectomycorrhizal Fungi

EPA Science Inventory

Isotopes of nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) in ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic fungi contain important information about ecological functioning, but the complexity of physiological and ecosystem processes contributing to fungal carbon and nitrogen dynamics has limited our abil...

Measuring the pulse of urban green infrastructure: vegetation dynamics across residential landscapes

EPA Science Inventory

Vegetation can be an important component of urban green infrastructure. Its structure is a complex result of the socio-ecological milieu and management decisions, and it can influence numerous ecohydrological processes such as stormwater interception and evapotranspiration. Despi...

The dual impact of ecology and management on social incentives in marine common-pool resource systems.

PubMed

Klein, E S; Barbier, M R; Watson, J R

2017-08-01

Understanding how and when cooperative human behaviour forms in common-pool resource systems is critical to illuminating social-ecological systems and designing governance institutions that promote sustainable resource use. Before assessing the full complexity of social dynamics, it is essential to understand, concretely and mechanistically, how resource dynamics and human actions interact to create incentives and pay-offs for social behaviours. Here, we investigated how such incentives for information sharing are affected by spatial dynamics and management in a common-pool resource system. Using interviews with fishermen to inform an agent-based model, we reveal generic mechanisms through which, for a given ecological setting characterized by the spatial dynamics of the resource, the two 'human factors' of information sharing and management may heterogeneously impact various members of a group for whom theory would otherwise predict the same strategy. When users can deplete the resource, these interactions are further affected by the management approach. Finally, we discuss the implications of alternative motivations, such as equity among fishermen and consistency of the fleet's output. Our results indicate that resource spatial dynamics, form of management and level of depletion can interact to alter the sociality of people in common-pool resource systems, providing necessary insight for future study of strategic decision processes.

Incorporating Social System Dynamics into the Food-Energy-Water System Resilience-Sustainability Modeling Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Givens, J.; Padowski, J.; Malek, K.; Guzman, C.; Boll, J.; Adam, J. C.; Witinok-Huber, R.

2017-12-01

In the face of climate change and multi-scalar governance objectives, achieving resilience of food-energy-water (FEW) systems requires interdisciplinary approaches. Through coordinated modeling and management efforts, we study "Innovations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (INFEWS)" through a case-study in the Columbia River Basin. Previous research on FEW system management and resilience includes some attention to social dynamics (e.g., economic, governance); however, more research is needed to better address social science perspectives. Decisions ultimately taken in this river basin would occur among stakeholders encompassing various institutional power structures including multiple U.S. states, tribal lands, and sovereign nations. The social science lens draws attention to the incompatibility between the engineering definition of resilience (i.e., return to equilibrium or a singular stable state) and the ecological and social system realities, more explicit in the ecological interpretation of resilience (i.e., the ability of a system to move into a different, possibly more resilient state). Social science perspectives include but are not limited to differing views on resilience as normative, system persistence versus transformation, and system boundary issues. To expand understanding of resilience and objectives for complex and dynamic systems, concepts related to inequality, heterogeneity, power, agency, trust, values, culture, history, conflict, and system feedbacks must be more tightly integrated into FEW research. We identify gaps in knowledge and data, and the value and complexity of incorporating social components and processes into systems models. We posit that socio-biophysical system resilience modeling would address important complex, dynamic social relationships, including non-linear dynamics of social interactions, to offer an improved understanding of sustainable management in FEW systems. Conceptual modeling that is presented in our study, represents a starting point for a continued research agenda that incorporates social dynamics into FEW system resilience and management.

Hamiltonian dynamics for complex food webs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlov, Vladimir; Vakulenko, Sergey; Wennergren, Uno

2016-03-01

We investigate stability and dynamics of large ecological networks by introducing classical methods of dynamical system theory from physics, including Hamiltonian and averaging methods. Our analysis exploits the topological structure of the network, namely the existence of strongly connected nodes (hubs) in the networks. We reveal new relations between topology, interaction structure, and network dynamics. We describe mechanisms of catastrophic phenomena leading to sharp changes of dynamics and hence completely altering the ecosystem. We also show how these phenomena depend on the structure of interaction between species. We can conclude that a Hamiltonian structure of biological interactions leads to stability and large biodiversity.

Proceedings of the Agent 2002 Conference on Social Agents : Ecology, Exchange, and Evolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macal, C., ed.; Sallach, D., ed.

2003-04-10

Welcome to the ''Proceedings'' of the third in a series of agent simulation conferences cosponsored by Argonne National Laboratory and The University of Chicago. The theme of this year's conference, ''Social Agents: Ecology, Exchange and Evolution'', was selected to foster the exchange of ideas on some of the most important social processes addressed by agent simulation models, namely: (1) The translation of ecology and ecological constraints into social dynamics; (2) The role of exchange processes, including the peer dependencies they create; and (3) The dynamics by which, and the attractor states toward which, social processes evolve. As stated in themore » ''Call for Papers'', throughout the social sciences, the simulation of social agents has emerged as an innovative and powerful research methodology. The promise of this approach, however, is accompanied by many challenges. First, modeling complexity in agents, environments, and interactions is non-trivial, and these representations must be explored and assessed systematically. Second, strategies used to represent complexities are differentially applicable to any particular problem space. Finally, to achieve sufficient generality, the design and experimentation inherent in agent simulation must be coupled with social and behavioral theory. Agent 2002 provides a forum for reviewing the current state of agent simulation scholarship, including research designed to address such outstanding issues. This year's conference introduces an extensive range of domains, models, and issues--from pre-literacy to future projections, from ecology to oligopolistic markets, and from design to validation. Four invited speakers highlighted major themes emerging from social agent simulation.« less

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

2005 annual progress report: Elk and bison grazing ecology in the Great Sand Dunes complex of lands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenecker, Kate A.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Zeigenfuss, Linda C.; Mao, Julie

2006-01-01

To address the questions and needs of local resource managers, a multi-agency research project was initiated in 2005 to study the ecology, forage relations, and habitat relations of elk and bison in the Great Sand Dunes–Sangre de Cristo–Baca complex of lands. Meetings and discussions of what this research should include were started in 2001 with representatives from NPS, USFWS, TNC, the Colorado Division of Wildlife (CDOW), and USDA-FS/BLM. The final study plan was successfully funded in 2004 with research scheduled to start in 2005. The research was designed to encompass three major study elements: (1) animal movements and population dynamics, (2) vegetation and nutrient effects from ungulate herbivory, and (3) development of ecological models, using empirical data collected from the first two components, that will include estimates of elk carrying capacity and management scenarios for resource managers.

Trait-based plant ecology: moving towards a unifying species coexistence theory : Features of the Special Section.

PubMed

Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

2016-04-01

Functional traits are the center of recent attempts to unify key ecological theories on species coexistence and assembling in populations and communities. While the plethora of studies on the role of functional traits to explain patterns and dynamics of communities has rendered a complex picture due to the idiosyncrasies of each study system and approach, there is increasing evidence on their actual relevance when aspects such as different spatial scales, intraspecific variability and demography are considered.

Health and ecological sustainability in the Arab world: a matter of survival

PubMed Central

El-Zein, Abbas; Jabbour, Samer; Tekce, Belgin; Zurayk, Huda; Nuwayhid, Iman; Khawaja, Marwan; Tell, Tariq; Mooji, Yusuf Al; De-Jong, Jocelyn; Yassin, Nasser; Hogan, Dennis

2014-01-01

Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population–environment–development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically difficult to achieve, offers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world offer promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action. PMID:24452051

Evolutionary perspectives on wildlife disease: concepts and applications

PubMed Central

Vander Wal, Eric; Garant, Dany; Pelletier, Fanie

2014-01-01

Wildlife disease has the potential to cause significant ecological, socioeconomic, and health impacts. As a result, all tools available need to be employed when host–pathogen dynamics merit conservation or management interventions. Evolutionary principles, such as evolutionary history, phenotypic and genetic variation, and selection, have the potential to unravel many of the complex ecological realities of infectious disease in the wild. Despite this, their application to wildlife disease ecology and management remains in its infancy. In this article, we outline the impetus behind applying evolutionary principles to disease ecology and management issues in the wild. We then introduce articles from this special issue on Evolutionary Perspectives on Wildlife Disease: Concepts and Applications, outlining how each is exemplar of a practical wildlife disease challenge that can be enlightened by applied evolution. Ultimately, we aim to bring new insights to wildlife disease ecology and its management using tools and techniques commonly employed in evolutionary ecology. PMID:25469154

Mycobacterium ulcerans Ecological Dynamics and Its Association with Freshwater Ecosystems and Aquatic Communities: Results from a 12-Month Environmental Survey in Cameroon

PubMed Central

Garchitorena, Andrés; Roche, Benjamin; Kamgang, Roger; Ossomba, Joachim; Babonneau, Jérémie; Landier, Jordi; Fontanet, Arnaud; Flahault, Antoine

2014-01-01

Background Mycobacterium ulcerans (MU) is the agent responsible for Buruli Ulcer (BU), an emerging skin disease with dramatic socioeconomic and health outcomes, especially in rural settings. BU emergence and distribution is linked to aquatic ecosystems in tropical and subtropical countries, especially to swampy and flooded areas. Aquatic animal organisms are likely to play a role either as host reservoirs or vectors of the bacilli. However, information on MU ecological dynamics, both in space and time, is dramatically lacking. As a result, the ecology of the disease agent, and consequently its mode of transmission, remains largely unknown, which jeopardizes public health attempts for its control. The objective of this study was to gain insight on MU environmental distribution and colonization of aquatic organisms through time. Methodology/Principal Findings Longitudinal sampling of 32 communities of aquatic macro-invertebrates and vertebrates was conducted from different environments in two BU endemic regions in Cameroon during 12 months. As a result, 238,496 individuals were classified and MU presence was assessed by qPCR in 3,084 sample-pools containing these aquatic organisms. Our study showed a broad distribution of MU in all ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with important regional differences in its occurrence. Colonization dynamics fluctuated along the year, with the highest peaks in August and October. The large variations observed in the colonization dynamics of different taxonomic groups and aquatic ecosystems suggest that the trends shown here are the result of complex ecological processes that need further investigation. Conclusion/Perspectives This is the largest field study on MU ecology to date, providing the first detailed description of its spatio-temporal dynamics in different aquatic ecosystems within BU endemic regions. We argue that coupling this data with fine-scale epidemiological data through statistical and mathematical models will provide a major step forward in the understanding of MU ecology and mode of transmission. PMID:24831924

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

EPA Science Inventory

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive gove...

Recent developments in computer modeling add ecological realism to landscape genetics

EPA Science Inventory

Background / Question / Methods A factor limiting the rate of progress in landscape genetics has been the shortage of spatial models capable of linking life history attributes such as dispersal behavior to complex dynamic landscape features. The recent development of new models...

Master stability functions reveal diffusion-driven pattern formation in networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brechtel, Andreas; Gramlich, Philipp; Ritterskamp, Daniel; Drossel, Barbara; Gross, Thilo

2018-03-01

We study diffusion-driven pattern formation in networks of networks, a class of multilayer systems, where different layers have the same topology, but different internal dynamics. Agents are assumed to disperse within a layer by undergoing random walks, while they can be created or destroyed by reactions between or within a layer. We show that the stability of homogeneous steady states can be analyzed with a master stability function approach that reveals a deep analogy between pattern formation in networks and pattern formation in continuous space. For illustration, we consider a generalized model of ecological meta-food webs. This fairly complex model describes the dispersal of many different species across a region consisting of a network of individual habitats while subject to realistic, nonlinear predator-prey interactions. In this example, the method reveals the intricate dependence of the dynamics on the spatial structure. The ability of the proposed approach to deal with this fairly complex system highlights it as a promising tool for ecology and other applications.

The feasibility of equilibria in large ecosystems: A primary but neglected concept in the complexity-stability debate

PubMed Central

Dougoud, Michaël; Rohr, Rudolf P.

2018-01-01

The consensus that complexity begets stability in ecosystems was challenged in the seventies, a result recently extended to ecologically-inspired networks. The approaches assume the existence of a feasible equilibrium, i.e. with positive abundances. However, this key assumption has not been tested. We provide analytical results complemented by simulations which show that equilibrium feasibility vanishes in species rich systems. This result leaves us in the uncomfortable situation in which the existence of a feasible equilibrium assumed in local stability criteria is far from granted. We extend our analyses by changing interaction structure and intensity, and find that feasibility and stability is warranted irrespective of species richness with weak interactions. Interestingly, we find that the dynamical behaviour of ecologically inspired architectures is very different and richer than that of unstructured systems. Our results suggest that a general understanding of ecosystem dynamics requires focusing on the interplay between interaction strength and network architecture. PMID:29420532

Emergence, institutionalization and renewal: Rhythms of adaptive governance in complex social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Chaffin, Brian C; Gunderson, Lance H

2016-01-01

Adaptive governance provides the capacity for environmental managers and decision makers to confront variable degrees of uncertainty inherent to complex social-ecological systems. Current theoretical conceptualizations of adaptive governance represent a series of structures and processes best suited for either adapting or transforming existing environmental governance regimes towards forms flexible enough to confront rapid ecological change. As the number of empirical examples of adaptive governance described in the literature grows, the conceptual basis of adaptive governance remains largely under theorized. We argue that reconnecting adaptive governance with foundational concepts of ecological resilience-specifically Panarchy and the adaptive cycle of complex systems-highlights the importance of episodic disturbances and cross-scale interactions in triggering reorganizations in governance. By envisioning the processes of adaptive governance through the lens of Panarchy, scholars and practitioners alike will be better able to identify the emergence of adaptive governance, as well as take advantage of opportunities to institutionalize this type of governance in pursuit of sustainability outcomes. The synergistic analysis of adaptive governance and Panarchy can provide critical insight for analyzing the role of social dynamics during oscillating periods of stability and instability in social-ecological systems. A deeper understanding of the potential for cross-scale interactions to shape adaptive governance regimes may be useful as society faces the challenge of mitigating the impacts of global environmental change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics and ecology of wood in world rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picco, Lorenzo; Bertoldi, Walter; Comiti, Francesco

2017-02-01

Scientific investigation on fluvial wood (FW) has increased greatly during the last decades, mostly for the need to better comprehend and better manage the numerous and complex interactions between the river network and the riparian areas. Following the first two International Conferences on ;Wood in World Rivers;, held at the Oregon State University (USA) in October 2000 and at the University of Stirling (Scotland) in August 2006, the Third Conference was organized in Padova (Italy) in July 2015, by the University of Padova (Dept. Land and Agroforest Environment), University of Trento (Dept. Civil and Environmental Engineering) and Free University of Bolzano (Fac. Science and Technology). This Special Issue contains fifteen papers, thirteen presented during this third conference, which overall cover its main topics: (i) synthesis of the knowledge on physical dynamics and ecological interactions of wood in different geographical regions; (ii) building of a framework for interpreting and applying research results and management approaches; (iii) assessment of physical and biological responses of large wood in stream restoration processes; (iv) exploration of the links between physical and ecological dynamics of large wood, river management, and the communities and cultures in which they are; (v) promotion of a connection between geosciences and ecology which represents a challenge for restoration purposes.

A scale-based approach to interdisciplinary research and expertise in sports.

PubMed

Ibáñez-Gijón, Jorge; Buekers, Martinus; Morice, Antoine; Rao, Guillaume; Mascret, Nicolas; Laurin, Jérome; Montagne, Gilles

2017-02-01

After more than 20 years since the introduction of ecological and dynamical approaches in sports research, their promising opportunity for interdisciplinary research has not been fulfilled yet. The complexity of the research process and the theoretical and empirical difficulties associated with an integrated ecological-dynamical approach have been the major factors hindering the generalisation of interdisciplinary projects in sports sciences. To facilitate this generalisation, we integrate the major concepts from the ecological and dynamical approaches to study behaviour as a multi-scale process. Our integration gravitates around the distinction between functional (ecological) and execution (organic) scales, and their reciprocal intra- and inter-scale constraints. We propose an (epistemological) scale-based definition of constraints that accounts for the concept of synergies as emergent coordinative structures. To illustrate how we can operationalise the notion of multi-scale synergies we use an interdisciplinary model of locomotor pointing. To conclude, we show the value of this approach for interdisciplinary research in sport sciences, as we discuss two examples of task-specific dimensionality reduction techniques in the context of an ongoing project that aims to unveil the determinants of expertise in basketball free throw shooting. These techniques provide relevant empirical evidence to help bootstrap the challenging modelling efforts required in sport sciences.

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

2005-01-01

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Ecological complexity buffers the impacts of future climate on marine consumers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, Silvan U.; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Marangon, Emma; Bonnet, Angélique; Ferreira, Camilo M.; Connell, Sean D.

2018-03-01

Ecological complexity represents a network of interacting components that either propagate or counter the effects of environmental change on individuals and communities1-3. Yet, our understanding of the ecological imprint of ocean acidification (elevated CO2) and climate change (elevated temperature) is largely based on reports of negative effects on single species in simplified laboratory systems4,5. By combining a large mesocosm experiment with a global meta-analysis, we reveal the capacity of consumers (fish and crustaceans) to resist the impacts of elevated CO2. While individual behaviours were impaired by elevated CO2, consumers could restore their performances in more complex environments that allowed for compensatory processes. Consequently, consumers maintained key traits such as foraging, habitat selection and predator avoidance despite elevated CO2 and sustained their populations. Our observed increase in risk-taking under elevated temperature, however, predicts greater vulnerability of consumers to predation. Yet, CO2 as a resource boosted the biomass of consumers through species interactions and may stabilize communities by countering the negative effects of elevated temperature. We conclude that compensatory dynamics inherent in the complexity of nature can buffer the impacts of future climate on species and their communities.

Computational complexity of ecological and evolutionary spatial dynamics

PubMed Central

Ibsen-Jensen, Rasmus; Chatterjee, Krishnendu; Nowak, Martin A.

2015-01-01

There are deep, yet largely unexplored, connections between computer science and biology. Both disciplines examine how information proliferates in time and space. Central results in computer science describe the complexity of algorithms that solve certain classes of problems. An algorithm is deemed efficient if it can solve a problem in polynomial time, which means the running time of the algorithm is a polynomial function of the length of the input. There are classes of harder problems for which the fastest possible algorithm requires exponential time. Another criterion is the space requirement of the algorithm. There is a crucial distinction between algorithms that can find a solution, verify a solution, or list several distinct solutions in given time and space. The complexity hierarchy that is generated in this way is the foundation of theoretical computer science. Precise complexity results can be notoriously difficult. The famous question whether polynomial time equals nondeterministic polynomial time (i.e., P = NP) is one of the hardest open problems in computer science and all of mathematics. Here, we consider simple processes of ecological and evolutionary spatial dynamics. The basic question is: What is the probability that a new invader (or a new mutant) will take over a resident population? We derive precise complexity results for a variety of scenarios. We therefore show that some fundamental questions in this area cannot be answered by simple equations (assuming that P is not equal to NP). PMID:26644569

Host-parasite oscillation dynamics and evolution in a compartmentalized RNA replication system.

PubMed

Bansho, Yohsuke; Furubayashi, Taro; Ichihashi, Norikazu; Yomo, Tetsuya

2016-04-12

To date, various cellular functions have been reconstituted in vitro such as self-replication systems using DNA, RNA, and proteins. The next important challenges include the reconstitution of the interactive networks of self-replicating species and investigating how such interactions generate complex ecological behaviors observed in nature. Here, we synthesized a simple replication system composed of two self-replicating host and parasitic RNA species. We found that the parasitic RNA eradicates the host RNA under bulk conditions; however, when the system is compartmentalized, a continuous oscillation pattern in the population dynamics of the two RNAs emerges. The oscillation pattern changed as replication proceeded mainly owing to the evolution of the host RNA. These results demonstrate that a cell-like compartment plays an important role in host-parasite ecological dynamics and suggest that the origin of the host-parasite coevolution might date back to the very early stages of the evolution of life.

Mapping the ecological networks of microbial communities.

PubMed

Xiao, Yandong; Angulo, Marco Tulio; Friedman, Jonathan; Waldor, Matthew K; Weiss, Scott T; Liu, Yang-Yu

2017-12-11

Mapping the ecological networks of microbial communities is a necessary step toward understanding their assembly rules and predicting their temporal behavior. However, existing methods require assuming a particular population dynamics model, which is not known a priori. Moreover, those methods require fitting longitudinal abundance data, which are often not informative enough for reliable inference. To overcome these limitations, here we develop a new method based on steady-state abundance data. Our method can infer the network topology and inter-taxa interaction types without assuming any particular population dynamics model. Additionally, when the population dynamics is assumed to follow the classic Generalized Lotka-Volterra model, our method can infer the inter-taxa interaction strengths and intrinsic growth rates. We systematically validate our method using simulated data, and then apply it to four experimental data sets. Our method represents a key step towards reliable modeling of complex, real-world microbial communities, such as the human gut microbiota.

Ecosystem responses to biogeochemical fronts in the South Brazil Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandini, Frederico P.; Tura, Pedro M.; Santos, Pedro P. G. M.

2018-05-01

Here we described the general hydrography in the South Brazil Bight (23-28°S) with emphasis on frontal processes and their role in the structure and functioning of the regional shelf ecosystem. One of the key roles of fronts for ecosystem dynamics is the injection of nutrients into the euphotic zone increasing primary production. Frontal systems also affect plankton biodiversity and fisheries. Physical mechanisms behind frontogenesis in this region are similar in the analogous western side of oceanic basins; their magnitude and seasonal dynamics, however, may differ due to peculiarities in shelf morphology, wind field, tidal circulation and continental drainage. Here we provide a reassessment of earlier and recent ecological and hydrographic studies for a better evaluation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of fronts and their regional ecological implications. Albeit in a fragmented manner, we give a more detailed conceptual framework about the ecosystem responses to the complex frontal system in the South Brazil Bight.

Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo

We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Predictability in community dynamics.

PubMed

Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J; Graae, Bente J; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2017-03-01

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Poverty, Disease, and the Ecology of Complex Systems

PubMed Central

Pluciński, Mateusz M.; Murray, Megan B.; Farmer, Paul E.; Barrett, Christopher B.; Keenan, Donald C.

2014-01-01

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems—such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change—to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development. PMID:24690902

Poverty, disease, and the ecology of complex systems.

PubMed

Ngonghala, Calistus N; Pluciński, Mateusz M; Murray, Megan B; Farmer, Paul E; Barrett, Christopher B; Keenan, Donald C; Bonds, Matthew H

2014-04-01

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems--such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change--to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development.

Complexity in Nature and Society: Complexity Management in the Age of Globalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainzer, Klaus

The theory of nonlinear complex systems has become a proven problem-solving approach in the natural sciences from cosmic and quantum systems to cellular organisms and the brain. Even in modern engineering science self-organizing systems are developed to manage complex networks and processes. It is now recognized that many of our ecological, social, economic, and political problems are also of a global, complex, and nonlinear nature. What are the laws of sociodynamics? Is there a socio-engineering of nonlinear problem solving? What can we learn from nonlinear dynamics for complexity management in social, economic, financial and political systems? Is self-organization an acceptable strategy to handle the challenges of complexity in firms, institutions and other organizations? It is a main thesis of the talk that nature and society are basically governed by nonlinear and complex information dynamics. How computational is sociodynamics? What can we hope for social, economic and political problem solving in the age of globalization?.

Microbial Ecology and Evolution in the Acid Mine Drainage Model System.

PubMed

Huang, Li-Nan; Kuang, Jia-Liang; Shu, Wen-Sheng

2016-07-01

Acid mine drainage (AMD) is a unique ecological niche for acid- and toxic-metals-adapted microorganisms. These low-complexity systems offer a special opportunity for the ecological and evolutionary analyses of natural microbial assemblages. The last decade has witnessed an unprecedented interest in the study of AMD communities using 16S rRNA high-throughput sequencing and community genomic and postgenomic methodologies, significantly advancing our understanding of microbial diversity, community function, and evolution in acidic environments. This review describes new data on AMD microbial ecology and evolution, especially dynamics of microbial diversity, community functions, and population genomes, and further identifies gaps in our current knowledge that future research, with integrated applications of meta-omics technologies, will fill. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social-ecological resilience and geomorphic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaffin, Brian C.; Scown, Murray

2018-03-01

Governance of coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) and the underlying geomorphic processes that structure and alter Earth's surface is a key challenge for global sustainability amid the increasing uncertainty and change that defines the Anthropocene. Social-ecological resilience as a concept of scientific inquiry has contributed to new understandings of the dynamics of change in SESs, increasing our ability to contextualize and implement governance in these systems. Often, however, the importance of geomorphic change and geomorphological knowledge is somewhat missing from processes employed to inform SES governance. In this contribution, we argue that geomorphology and social-ecological resilience research should be integrated to improve governance toward sustainability. We first provide definitions of engineering, ecological, community, and social-ecological resilience and then explore the use of these concepts within and alongside geomorphology in the literature. While ecological studies often consider geomorphology as an important factor influencing the resilience of ecosystems and geomorphological studies often consider the engineering resilience of geomorphic systems of interest, very few studies define and employ a social-ecological resilience framing and explicitly link the concept to geomorphic systems. We present five key concepts-scale, feedbacks, state or regime, thresholds and regime shifts, and humans as part of the system-which we believe can help explicitly link important aspects of social-ecological resilience inquiry and geomorphological inquiry in order to strengthen the impact of both lines of research. Finally, we discuss how these five concepts might be used to integrate social-ecological resilience and geomorphology to better understand change in, and inform governance of, SESs. To compound these dynamics of resilience, complex systems are nested and cross-scale interactions from smaller and larger scales relative to the system of interest can play formative roles during periods of collapse and reorganization. Large- and small-scale disturbances as well as large-scale system memory/capacity and small-scale innovation can have significant impacts on the trajectory of a reorganizing system (Gunderson and Holling, 2002; Chaffin and Gunderson, 2016). Attempts to measure the property of ecological resilience across complex systems amounts to attempts to measure the persistence of system-controlling variables, including processes, parameters, and important feedbacks, when the system is exposed to varying degrees of disturbance (Folke, 2016).

Forest-management modelling

Treesearch

Mark J. Twery; Aaron R. Weiskittel

2013-01-01

Forests are complex and dynamic ecosystems comprising individual trees that can vary in both size and species. In comparison to other organisms, trees are relatively long lived (40-2000 years), quite plastic in terms of their morphology and ecological niche, and adapted to a wide variety of habitats, which can make predicting their behaviour exceedingly difficult....

Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Wildfire management in the United States and elsewhere is challenged by substantial uncertainty regarding the location and timing of fire events, the socioeconomic and ecological consequences of these events, and the costs of suppression. Escalating U.S. Forest Service suppression expenditures is of particular concern at a time of fiscal austerity as swelling fire...

Resilience thinking: integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability

Treesearch

Carl Folke; Stephen R. Carpenter; Brian Walker; Marten Scheffer; Terry Chapin; Johan Rockstrom

2010-01-01

Resilience thinking addresses the dynamics and development of complex social-ecological systems (SES). Three aspects are central: resilience, adaptability and transformability. These aspects interrelate across multiple scales. Resilience in this context is the capacity of a SES to continually change and adapt yet remain within critical thresholds. Adaptability is part...

Computational ecology as an emerging science

PubMed Central

Petrovskii, Sergei; Petrovskaya, Natalia

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that numerical modelling and computer simulations can be used as a powerful research tool to understand, and sometimes to predict, the tendencies and peculiarities in the dynamics of populations and ecosystems. It has been, however, much less appreciated that the context of modelling and simulations in ecology is essentially different from those that normally exist in other natural sciences. In our paper, we review the computational challenges arising in modern ecology in the spirit of computational mathematics, i.e. with our main focus on the choice and use of adequate numerical methods. Somewhat paradoxically, the complexity of ecological problems does not always require the use of complex computational methods. This paradox, however, can be easily resolved if we recall that application of sophisticated computational methods usually requires clear and unambiguous mathematical problem statement as well as clearly defined benchmark information for model validation. At the same time, many ecological problems still do not have mathematically accurate and unambiguous description, and available field data are often very noisy, and hence it can be hard to understand how the results of computations should be interpreted from the ecological viewpoint. In this scientific context, computational ecology has to deal with a new paradigm: conventional issues of numerical modelling such as convergence and stability become less important than the qualitative analysis that can be provided with the help of computational techniques. We discuss this paradigm by considering computational challenges arising in several specific ecological applications. PMID:23565336

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks. Semiannual Status Report M.S. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech., Nov. 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirlik, Alex; Kossack, Merrick Frank

1993-01-01

This status report consists of a thesis entitled 'Ecological Task Analysis: A Method for Display Enhancements.' Previous use of various analysis processes for the purpose of display interface design or enhancement has run the risk of failing to improve user performance due to the analysis resulting in only a sequencial listing of user tasks. Adopting an ecological approach to performing the task analysis, however, may result in the necessary modeling of an unpredictable and variable task domain required to improve user performance. Kirlik has proposed an Ecological Task Analysis framework which is designed for this purpose. It is the purpose of this research to measure this framework's effectiveness at enhancing display interfaces in order to improve user performance. Following the proposed framework, an ecological task analysis of experienced users of a complex and dynamic laboratory task, Star Cruiser, was performed. Based on this analysis, display enhancements were proposed and implemented. An experiment was then conducted to compare this new version of Star Cruiser to the original. By measuring user performance at different tasks, it was determined that during early sessions, use of the enhanced display contributed to better user performance compared to that achieved using the original display. Furthermore, the results indicate that the enhancements proposed as a result of the ecological task analysis affected user performance differently depending on whether they are enhancements which aid in the selection of a possible action or in the performance of an action. Generalizations of these findings to larger, more complex systems were avoided since the analysis was only performed on this one particular system.

Predator attack rate evolution in space: the role of ecology mediated by complex emergent spatial structure and self-shading.

PubMed

Messinger, Susanna M; Ostling, Annette

2013-11-01

Predation interactions are an important element of ecological communities. Population spatial structure has been shown to influence predator evolution, resulting in the evolution of a reduced predator attack rate; however, the evolutionary role of traits governing predator and prey ecology is unknown. The evolutionary effect of spatial structure on a predator's attack rate has primarily been explored assuming a fixed metapopulation spatial structure, and understood in terms of group selection. But endogenously generated, emergent spatial structure is common in nature. Furthermore, the evolutionary influence of ecological traits may be mediated through the spatial self-structuring process. Drawing from theory on pathogens, the evolutionary effect of emergent spatial structure can be understood in terms of self-shading, where a voracious predator limits its long-term invasion potential by reducing local prey availability. Here we formalize the effects of self-shading for predators using spatial moment equations. Then, through simulations, we show that in a spatial context self-shading leads to relationships between predator-prey ecology and the predator's attack rate that are not expected in a non-spatial context. Some relationships are analogous to relationships already shown for host-pathogen interactions, but others represent new trait dimensions. Finally, since understanding the effects of ecology using existing self-shading theory requires simplifications of the emergent spatial structure that do not apply well here, we also develop metrics describing the complex spatial structure of the predator and prey populations to help us explain the evolutionary effect of predator and prey ecology in the context of self-shading. The identification of these metrics may provide a step towards expansion of the predictive domain of self-shading theory to more complex spatial dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health and ecological sustainability in the Arab world: a matter of survival.

PubMed

El-Zein, Abbas; Jabbour, Samer; Tekce, Belgin; Zurayk, Huda; Nuwayhid, Iman; Khawaja, Marwan; Tell, Tariq; Al Mooji, Yusuf; De-Jong, Jocelyn; Yassin, Nasser; Hogan, Dennis

2014-02-01

Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population-environment-development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically difficult to achieve, offers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world offer promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The resonant system: Linking brain-body-environment in sport performance☆.

PubMed

Teques, Pedro; Araújo, Duarte; Seifert, Ludovic; Del Campo, Vicente L; Davids, Keith

2017-01-01

The ecological dynamics approach offers new insights to understand how athlete nervous systems are embedded within the body-environment system in sport. Cognitive neuroscience focuses on the neural bases of athlete behaviors in terms of perceptual, cognitive, and motor functions defined within specific brain structures. Here, we discuss some limitations of this traditional perspective, addressing how athletes functionally adapt perception and action to the dynamics of complex performance environments by continuously perceiving information to regulate goal-directed actions. We examine how recent neurophysiological evidence of functioning in diverse cortical and subcortical regions appears more compatible with an ecological dynamics perspective, than traditional views in cognitive neuroscience. We propose how athlete behaviors in sports may be related to the tuning of resonant mechanisms indicating that perception is a dynamic process involving the whole body of the athlete. We emphasize the important role of metastable dynamics in the brain-body-environment system facilitating continuous interactions with a landscape of affordances (opportunities for action) in a performance environment. We discuss implications of these ideas for performance preparation and practice design in sport. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Operationalising a social-ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean.

PubMed

Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Gren, Åsa; Engström, Gustav; Ospina, Daniel

2017-12-01

We propose a framework to support management that builds on a social-ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean. We illustrate the framework's application for two policy-relevant scenarios of climate-driven change, picturing a shift in zooplankton composition and alternatively a crab invasion. We analyse archetypical system dynamics between the socio-economic, the natural, and the governance systems in these scenarios. Our holistic approach can help managers identify looming problems arising from complex system interactions and prioritise among problems and solutions, even when available data are limited.

Social-ecological resilience and law

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Allen, Craig R.

2014-01-01

Environmental law envisions ecological systems as existing in an equilibrium state, reinforcing a rigid legal framework unable to absorb rapid environmental changes and innovations in sustainability. For the past four decades, “resilience theory,” which embraces uncertainty and nonlinear dynamics in complex adaptive systems, has provided a robust, invaluable foundation for sound environmental management. Reforming American law to incorporate this knowledge is the key to sustainability. This volume features top legal and resilience scholars speaking on resilience theory and its legal applications to climate change, biodiversity, national parks, and water law.

Ecology and exploration of the rare biosphere.

PubMed

Lynch, Michael D J; Neufeld, Josh D

2015-04-01

The profound influence of microorganisms on human life and global biogeochemical cycles underlines the value of studying the biogeography of microorganisms, exploring microbial genomes and expanding our understanding of most microbial species on Earth: that is, those present at low relative abundance. The detection and subsequent analysis of low-abundance microbial populations—the 'rare biosphere'—have demonstrated the persistence, population dynamics, dispersion and predation of these microbial species. We discuss the ecology of rare microbial populations, and highlight molecular and computational methods for targeting taxonomic 'blind spots' within the rare biosphere of complex microbial communities.

Component modeling in ecological risk assessment: Disturbance in interspecific interactions caused by air toxics introduced into terrestrial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swider, Jan Zenon

The human health risk assessment (HRA), initiated by the onset of nuclear industry, has been a well established methodology for assessing the impacts of human created contamination on an individual human being and entire population. The wide spread of applications and tools grown upon this methodology allows one not only to identify the hazards, but also to manage the risks. Recently, there has existed an increased awareness of the need to conduct ecological risk assessments (ERA) in addition to HRAs. The ERAs are, by and large, more complex than typical HRAs and involve not only different species but whole ecological systems. Such complex analyses require a thorough understanding of the processes underway in the ecosystem, including the contaminant transport through the food web, population dynamics as well as intra- and inter-specific relationships. The exposure pathways change radically depending on the consumer tier. Plants produce their nutriment from the sunlight and raw inorganic compounds. Animals and other living forms obtain energy by eating plants, other animals and detritus. Their double role as food consumers and food producers causes a trophic structure of the ecological system, where nutrients and energy are transferred from one trophic level to another. This is a dynamic process of energy flow, mostly in the form of food, varying with time and space. In order to conduct an efficient ERA, a multidisciplinary framework is needed. This framework can be enhanced by analyzing predator-prey interactions during the environmental disturbances caused by a pollutant emission, and by assessing the consequences of such disturbances. It is necessary to develop a way to describe how human industrial activity affects the ecosystems. Existing ecological studies have mostly been focused either on pure ecological interdependencies or on limited perspectives of human activities. In this study, we discuss the issues of air pollution and its ecological impacts from the Ecological Risk Assessment standpoint and examine the impact of air toxics emissions on an ecosystem, with particular emphasis on predator-prey interactions. Such analysis may help to identify the most likely conditions leading to the ecosystem instability and possibility of its recuperation.

The evolutionary ecology of complex lifecycle parasites: linking phenomena with mechanisms

PubMed Central

Auld, S KJR; Tinsley, M C

2015-01-01

Many parasitic infections, including those of humans, are caused by complex lifecycle parasites (CLPs): parasites that sequentially infect different hosts over the course of their lifecycle. CLPs come from a wide range of taxonomic groups—from single-celled bacteria to multicellular flatworms—yet share many common features in their life histories. Theory tells us when CLPs should be favoured by selection, but more empirical studies are required in order to quantify the costs and benefits of having a complex lifecycle, especially in parasites that facultatively vary their lifecycle complexity. In this article, we identify ecological conditions that favour CLPs over their simple lifecycle counterparts and highlight how a complex lifecycle can alter transmission rate and trade-offs between growth and reproduction. We show that CLPs participate in dynamic host–parasite coevolution, as more mobile hosts can fuel CLP adaptation to less mobile hosts. Then, we argue that a more general understanding of the evolutionary ecology of CLPs is essential for the development of effective frameworks to manage the many diseases they cause. More research is needed identifying the genetics of infection mechanisms used by CLPs, particularly into the role of gene duplication and neofunctionalisation in lifecycle evolution. We propose that testing for signatures of selection in infection genes will reveal much about how and when complex lifecycles evolved, and will help quantify complex patterns of coevolution between CLPs and their various hosts. Finally, we emphasise four key areas where new research approaches will provide fertile opportunities to advance this field. PMID:25227255

The historical dynamics of social-ecological traps.

PubMed

Boonstra, Wiebren J; de Boer, Florianne W

2014-04-01

Environmental degradation is a typical unintended outcome of collective human behavior. Hardin's metaphor of the "tragedy of the commons" has become a conceived wisdom that captures the social dynamics leading to environmental degradation. Recently, "traps" has gained currency as an alternative concept to explain the rigidity of social and ecological processes that produce environmental degradation and livelihood impoverishment. The trap metaphor is, however, a great deal more complex compared to Hardin's insight. This paper takes stock of studies using the trap metaphor. It argues that the concept includes time and history in the analysis, but only as background conditions and not as a factor of causality. From a historical-sociological perspective this is remarkable since social-ecological traps are clearly path-dependent processes, which are causally produced through a conjunction of events. To prove this point the paper conceptualizes social-ecological traps as a process instead of a condition, and systematically compares history and timing in one classic and three recent studies of social-ecological traps. Based on this comparison it concludes that conjunction of social and environmental events contributes profoundly to the production of trap processes. The paper further discusses the implications of this conclusion for policy intervention and outlines how future research might generalize insights from historical-sociological studies of traps.

Meta-ecosystem dynamics and functioning on finite spatial networks

PubMed Central

Marleau, Justin N.; Guichard, Frédéric; Loreau, Michel

2014-01-01

The addition of spatial structure to ecological concepts and theories has spurred integration between sub-disciplines within ecology, including community and ecosystem ecology. However, the complexity of spatial models limits their implementation to idealized, regular landscapes. We present a model meta-ecosystem with finite and irregular spatial structure consisting of local nutrient–autotrophs–herbivores ecosystems connected through spatial flows of materials and organisms. We study the effect of spatial flows on stability and ecosystem functions, and provide simple metrics of connectivity that can predict these effects. Our results show that high rates of nutrient and herbivore movement can destabilize local ecosystem dynamics, leading to spatially heterogeneous equilibria or oscillations across the meta-ecosystem, with generally increased meta-ecosystem primary and secondary production. However, the onset and the spatial scale of these emergent dynamics depend heavily on the spatial structure of the meta-ecosystem and on the relative movement rate of the autotrophs. We show how this strong dependence on finite spatial structure eludes commonly used metrics of connectivity, but can be predicted by the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the connectivity matrix that describe the spatial structure and scale. Our study indicates the need to consider finite-size ecosystems in meta-ecosystem theory. PMID:24403323

MaxEnt-Based Ecological Theory: A Template for Integrated Catchment Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harte, J.

2017-12-01

The maximum information entropy procedure (MaxEnt) is both a powerful tool for inferring least-biased probability distributions from limited data and a framework for the construction of complex systems theory. The maximum entropy theory of ecology (METE) describes remarkably well widely observed patterns in the distribution, abundance and energetics of individuals and taxa in relatively static ecosystems. An extension to ecosystems undergoing change in response to disturbance or natural succession (DynaMETE) is in progress. I describe the structure of both the static and the dynamic theory and show a range of comparisons with census data. I then propose a generalization of the MaxEnt approach that could provide a framework for a predictive theory of both static and dynamic, fully-coupled, eco-socio-hydrological catchment systems.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-01-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-06-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

The legacy of biosphere 2 for the study of biospherics and closed ecological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, J. P.; Nelson, M.; Alling, A.

The unprecedented challenges of creating Biosphere 2, the world's first laboratory for biospherics, the study of global ecology and long-term closed ecological system dynamics, led to breakthrough developments in many fields, and a deeper understanding of the opportunities and difficulties of material closure. This paper will review accomplishments and challenges, citing some of the key research findings and publications that have resulted from the experiments in Biosphere 2. Engineering accomplishments included development of a technique for variable volume to deal with pressure differences between the facility and outside environment, developing methods of atmospheric leak detection and sealing, while achieving new standards of closure, with an annual atmospheric leakrate of less than 10%, or less than 300 ppm per day. This degree of closure permitted detailed tracking of carbon dioxide, oxygen, and trice gases such as nitrous oxide and ethylene over the seasonal variability of two years. Full closure also necessitated developing new approaches and technologies for complete air, water, and wastewater recycle and reuse within the facility. The development of a soil-based highly productive agricultural system was a first in closed ecological systems, and much was learned about managing a wide variety of crops using non-chemical means of pest and disease control. Closed ecological systems have different temporal biogeochemical cycling and ranges of atmospheric components because of their smaller reservoirs of air, water and soil, and higher concentration of biomass, and Biosphere 2 provided detailed examination and modeling of these accelerated cycles over a period of closure which measured in years. Medical research inside Biosphere 2 included the effects on humans of lowered oxygen: the discovery that human productivity can be maintained with good health with lowered atmospheric oxygen levels could lead to major economies on the design of space stations and planetary/lunar settlements. The improved health resulting from the calorie-restricted but nutrient dense Biosphere 2 diet was the first such scientifically controlled experiment with humans. The success of Biosphere 2 in creating a diversity of terrestrial and marine environments, from rainforest to coral reef, allowed detailed studies with comprehensive measurements such that the dynamics of these complex biomic systems are now better understood. The coral reef ecosystem, the largest artificial reef ever built, catalyzed methods of study now being applied to planetary coral reef systems. Restoration ecology advanced through the creation and study of the dynamics of adaptation and self-organization of the biomes in Biosphere 2. The international interest that Biosphere 2 generated has given new impetus to the public recognition of the sciences of biospheres (biospherics), biomes and closed ecological life systems. The facility, although no longer a materially-closed ecological system, is being used as an educational facility by Columbia University as an introduction to the study of the biosphere and complex system ecology and for carbon dioxide impacts utilizing the complex ecosystems created in Biosphere '.The many lessons learned from Biosphere 2 are being used by its key team of creators in their design and operation of a laboratory-sized closed ecological system, the Laboratory Biosphere, in operation as of March 2002, and for the design of a Mars on Earth ™ prototype life support system for manned missions to Mars and Mars surface habitats. Biosphere 2 is an important foundation for future advances in biospherics and closed ecological system research.

Recent social and biogeophysical changes in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Mekong, and Amazon deltas as inputs into evolutionary policy-making.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Araujo Barbosa, C. C.; Hossain, S.; Szabo, S.; Matthews, Z.; Heard, S.; Dearing, J.

2014-12-01

Policy-making in social-ecological systems increasingly looks to iterative, evolutionary approaches that can address the inherent complexity of interactions between human wellbeing, agricultural and aquacultural production, and ecosystem services. Here we show how an analysis of available time-series in delta regions over past decades can provide important insight into the social-ecological system dynamics that result from the complexity. The presentation summarises the recent changes for major elements of each social-ecological system, for example demography, economy, health, climate, food, and water. Time-series data from official statistics, monitoring programmes and sequential satellite imagery are analysed to define the range of trends, the presence of change points, slow and fast variables, and the significant drivers of change. For example, in the Bangladesh delta zone, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income levels since the 1980s mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. As a result, poverty alleviation is associated with environmental degradation. Trends in indicators of human wellbeing and ecosystem services point to widespread non-stationary dynamics governed by slowly changing variables with increased probability of systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. We conclude by examining how the findings could feed into new management tools, such as system dynamic models and assessments of safe operating spaces. Such tools have the potential to help create policies that deliver alternative and sustainable paths for land management while accommodating social and environmental change.

Inferring the relative resilience of alternative states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Rojo, Carmen; Alvarez-Cobelas, Miguel; Rodrigo, Maria A.; Sanchez-Carrillo, Salvador

2013-01-01

Ecological systems may occur in alternative states that differ in ecological structures, functions and processes. Resilience is the measure of disturbance an ecological system can absorb before changing states. However, how the intrinsic structures and processes of systems that characterize their states affects their resilience remains unclear. We analyzed time series of phytoplankton communities at three sites in a floodplain in central Spain to assess the dominant frequencies or “temporal scales” in community dynamics and compared the patterns between a wet and a dry alternative state. The identified frequencies and cross-scale structures are expected to arise from positive feedbacks that are thought to reinforce processes in alternative states of ecological systems and regulate emergent phenomena such as resilience. Our analyses show a higher species richness and diversity but lower evenness in the dry state. Time series modeling revealed a decrease in the importance of short-term variability in the communities, suggesting that community dynamics slowed down in the dry relative to the wet state. The number of temporal scales at which community dynamics manifested, and the explanatory power of time series models, was lower in the dry state. The higher diversity, reduced number of temporal scales and the lower explanatory power of time series models suggest that species dynamics tended to be more stochastic in the dry state. From a resilience perspective our results highlight a paradox: increasing species richness may not necessarily enhance resilience. The loss of cross-scale structure (i.e. the lower number of temporal scales) in community dynamics across sites suggests that resilience erodes during drought. Phytoplankton communities in the dry state are therefore likely less resilient than in the wet state. Our case study demonstrates the potential of time series modeling to assess attributes that mediate resilience. The approach is useful for assessing resilience of alternative states across ecological and other complex systems.

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities.

PubMed

Frelat, Romain; Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs.

Complex Dynamics of Wetland Ecosystem with Nonlinear Harvesting: Application to Chilika Lake in Odisha, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Tiwari, S. K.; Roy, Parimita

2015-06-01

In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the spatial and temporal dynamical interactions among the species of wetland ecosystem through a mathematical model. The model represents the population dynamics of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish species found in Chilika lake, Odisha, India. Nonlinear stability analysis of both the temporal and spatial models has been carried out. Maximum sustainable yield and optimal harvesting policy have been studied for a nonspatial model system. Numerical simulation has been performed to figure out the parameters responsible for the complex dynamics of the wetland system. Significant outcomes of our numerical findings and their interpretations from an ecological point of view are provided in this paper. Numerical simulation of spatial model exhibits some interesting and beautiful patterns. We have also pointed out the parameters that are responsible for the good health of wetland ecosystem.

Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastal systems: a system dynamics analysis.

PubMed

Mavrommati, Georgia; Bithas, Kostas; Panayiotidis, Panayiotis

2013-12-15

We propose a system dynamics approach for Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) in urban coastal systems. A systematic analysis based on theoretical considerations, policy analysis and experts' knowledge is followed in order to define the concept of ESD. The principles underlying ESD feed the development of a System Dynamics Model (SDM) that connects the pollutant loads produced by urban systems' socioeconomic activities with the ecological condition of the coastal ecosystem that it is delineated in operational terms through key biological elements defined by the EU Water Framework Directive. The receiving waters of the Athens Metropolitan area, which bears the elements of typical high population density Mediterranean coastal city but which currently has also new dynamics induced by the ongoing financial crisis, are used as an experimental system for testing a system dynamics approach to apply the concept of ESD. Systems' thinking is employed to represent the complex relationships among the components of the system. Interconnections and dependencies that determine the potentials for achieving ESD are revealed. The proposed system dynamics analysis can facilitate decision makers to define paths of development that comply with the principles of ESD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges and Experiences of Building Multidisciplinary Datasets across Cultures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamiyansharav, K.; Laituri, M.; Fernandez-Gimenez, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Venable, N. B. H.; Allegretti, A. M.; Reid, R.; Baival, B.; Jamsranjav, C.; Ulambayar, T.; Linn, S.; Angerer, J.

2017-12-01

Efficient data sharing and management are key challenges to multidisciplinary scientific research. These challenges are further complicated by adding a multicultural component. We address the construction of a complex database for social-ecological analysis in Mongolia. Funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human (CNH) Systems, the Mongolian Rangelands and Resilience (MOR2) project focuses on the vulnerability of Mongolian pastoral systems to climate change and adaptive capacity. The MOR2 study spans over three years of fieldwork in 36 paired districts (Soum) from 18 provinces (Aimag) of Mongolia that covers steppe, mountain forest steppe, desert steppe and eastern steppe ecological zones. Our project team is composed of hydrologists, social scientists, geographers, and ecologists. The MOR2 database includes multiple ecological, social, meteorological, geospatial and hydrological datasets, as well as archives of original data and survey in multiple formats. Managing this complex database requires significant organizational skills, attention to detail and ability to communicate within collective team members from diverse disciplines and across multiple institutions in the US and Mongolia. We describe the database's rich content, organization, structure and complexity. We discuss lessons learned, best practices and recommendations for complex database management, sharing, and archiving in creating a cross-cultural and multi-disciplinary database.

Recruitment dynamics in complex life cycles. [of organisms living in marine rocky zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roughgarden, Jonathan; Possingham, Hugh; Gaines, Steven

1988-01-01

Factors affecting marine population fluctuations are discussed with particular attention given to a common barnacle species of the Pacific coast of North America. It is shown how models combining larval circulation with adult interactions can potentially forecast population fluctuations. These findings demonstrate how processes in different ecological habitats are coupled.

The "Uptake" of a Sport-for-Development Programme in South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burnett, Cora

2015-01-01

This article reports on the "uptake" dynamics and resultant manifestations of a school-based, incentive-driven, sport-for-development programme in the South African context of poverty. The ecological systems theory of Brofenbrenner, the theory of complexity and a neo-liberal framework underpin the social constructions of local meanings…

Cross-immunity between strains explains the dynamical pattern of paramyxoviruses

PubMed Central

Bhattacharyya, Samit; Gesteland, Per H.; Korgenski, Kent; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Adler, Frederick R.

2015-01-01

Viral respiratory tract diseases pose serious public health problems. Our ability to predict and thus, be able to prepare for outbreaks is strained by the complex factors driving the prevalence and severity of these diseases. The abundance of diseases and transmission dynamics of strains are not only affected by external factors, such as weather, but also driven by interactions among viruses mediated by human behavior and immunity. To untangle the complex out-of-phase annual and biennial pattern of three common paramyxoviruses, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), Human Parainfluenza Virus (HPIV), and Human Metapneumovirus (hMPV), we adopt a theoretical approach that integrates ecological and immunological mechanisms of disease interactions. By estimating parameters from multiyear time series of laboratory-confirmed cases from the intermountain west region of the United States and using statistical inference, we show that models of immune-mediated interactions better explain the data than those based on ecological competition by convalescence. The strength of cross-protective immunity among viruses is correlated with their genetic distance in the phylogenetic tree of the paramyxovirus family. PMID:26460003

Some insights on grassland health assessment based on remote sensing.

PubMed

Xu, Dandan; Guo, Xulin

2015-01-29

Grassland ecosystem is one of the largest ecosystems, which naturally occurs on all continents excluding Antarctica and provides both ecological and economic functions. The deterioration of natural grassland has been attracting many grassland researchers to monitor the grassland condition and dynamics for decades. Remote sensing techniques, which are advanced in dealing with the scale constraints of ecological research and provide temporal information, become a powerful approach of grassland ecosystem monitoring. So far, grassland health monitoring studies have mostly focused on different areas, for example, productivity evaluation, classification, vegetation dynamics, livestock carrying capacity, grazing intensity, natural disaster detecting, fire, climate change, coverage assessment and soil erosion. However, the grassland ecosystem is a complex system which is formed by soil, vegetation, wildlife and atmosphere. Thus, it is time to consider the grassland ecosystem as an entity synthetically and establish an integrated grassland health monitoring system to combine different aspects of the complex grassland ecosystem. In this review, current grassland health monitoring methods, including rangeland health assessment, ecosystem health assessment and grassland monitoring by remote sensing from different aspects, are discussed along with the future directions of grassland health assessment.

Some Insights on Grassland Health Assessment Based on Remote Sensing

PubMed Central

Xu, Dandan; Guo, Xulin

2015-01-01

Grassland ecosystem is one of the largest ecosystems, which naturally occurs on all continents excluding Antarctica and provides both ecological and economic functions. The deterioration of natural grassland has been attracting many grassland researchers to monitor the grassland condition and dynamics for decades. Remote sensing techniques, which are advanced in dealing with the scale constraints of ecological research and provide temporal information, become a powerful approach of grassland ecosystem monitoring. So far, grassland health monitoring studies have mostly focused on different areas, for example, productivity evaluation, classification, vegetation dynamics, livestock carrying capacity, grazing intensity, natural disaster detecting, fire, climate change, coverage assessment and soil erosion. However, the grassland ecosystem is a complex system which is formed by soil, vegetation, wildlife and atmosphere. Thus, it is time to consider the grassland ecosystem as an entity synthetically and establish an integrated grassland health monitoring system to combine different aspects of the complex grassland ecosystem. In this review, current grassland health monitoring methods, including rangeland health assessment, ecosystem health assessment and grassland monitoring by remote sensing from different aspects, are discussed along with the future directions of grassland health assessment. PMID:25643060

How Structured Is the Entangled Bank? The Surprisingly Simple Organization of Multiplex Ecological Networks Leads to Increased Persistence and Resilience

PubMed Central

Wieters, Evie A.; Navarrete, Sergio A.

2016-01-01

Species are linked to each other by a myriad of positive and negative interactions. This complex spectrum of interactions constitutes a network of links that mediates ecological communities’ response to perturbations, such as exploitation and climate change. In the last decades, there have been great advances in the study of intricate ecological networks. We have, nonetheless, lacked both the data and the tools to more rigorously understand the patterning of multiple interaction types between species (i.e., “multiplex networks”), as well as their consequences for community dynamics. Using network statistical modeling applied to a comprehensive ecological network, which includes trophic and diverse non-trophic links, we provide a first glimpse at what the full “entangled bank” of species looks like. The community exhibits clear multidimensional structure, which is taxonomically coherent and broadly predictable from species traits. Moreover, dynamic simulations suggest that this non-random patterning of how diverse non-trophic interactions map onto the food web could allow for higher species persistence and higher total biomass than expected by chance and tends to promote a higher robustness to extinctions. PMID:27487303

Symmetric and Asymmetric Tendencies in Stable Complex Systems

PubMed Central

Tan, James P. L.

2016-01-01

A commonly used approach to study stability in a complex system is by analyzing the Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium point of a dynamical system. The equilibrium point is stable if all eigenvalues have negative real parts. Here, by obtaining eigenvalue bounds of the Jacobian, we show that stable complex systems will favor mutualistic and competitive relationships that are asymmetrical (non-reciprocative) and trophic relationships that are symmetrical (reciprocative). Additionally, we define a measure called the interdependence diversity that quantifies how distributed the dependencies are between the dynamical variables in the system. We find that increasing interdependence diversity has a destabilizing effect on the equilibrium point, and the effect is greater for trophic relationships than for mutualistic and competitive relationships. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations in ecology. More importantly, our findings suggest stabilization algorithms that can apply very generally to a variety of complex systems. PMID:27545722

Symmetric and Asymmetric Tendencies in Stable Complex Systems.

PubMed

Tan, James P L

2016-08-22

A commonly used approach to study stability in a complex system is by analyzing the Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium point of a dynamical system. The equilibrium point is stable if all eigenvalues have negative real parts. Here, by obtaining eigenvalue bounds of the Jacobian, we show that stable complex systems will favor mutualistic and competitive relationships that are asymmetrical (non-reciprocative) and trophic relationships that are symmetrical (reciprocative). Additionally, we define a measure called the interdependence diversity that quantifies how distributed the dependencies are between the dynamical variables in the system. We find that increasing interdependence diversity has a destabilizing effect on the equilibrium point, and the effect is greater for trophic relationships than for mutualistic and competitive relationships. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations in ecology. More importantly, our findings suggest stabilization algorithms that can apply very generally to a variety of complex systems.

Results of complex annual parasitological monitoring in the coastal area of Kola Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuklin, V. V.; Kuklina, M. M.; Kisova, N. E.; Maslich, M. A.

2009-12-01

The results of annual parasitological monitoring in the coastal area near the Abram-mys (Kola Bay, Barents Sea) are presented. The studies were performed in 2006-2007 and included complex examination of the intermediate hosts (mollusks and crustaceans) and definitive hosts (marine fish and birds) of the helminths. The biodiversity of the parasite fauna, seasonal dynamics, and functioning patterns of the parasite systems were investigated. The basic regularities in parasite circulation were assessed in relation to their life cycle strategies and the ecological features of the intermediate and definitive hosts. The factors affecting the success of parasite circulation in the coastal ecosystems were revealed through analysis of parasite biodiversity and abundance dynamics.

Network analysis shining light on parasite ecology and diversity.

PubMed

Poulin, Robert

2010-10-01

The vast number of species making up natural communities, and the myriad interactions among them, pose great difficulties for the study of community structure, dynamics and stability. Borrowed from other fields, network analysis is making great inroads in community ecology and is only now being applied to host-parasite interactions. It allows a complex system to be examined in its entirety, as opposed to one or a few components at a time. This review explores what network analysis is and how it can be used to investigate parasite ecology. It also summarizes the first findings to emerge from network analyses of host-parasite interactions and identifies promising future directions made possible by this approach. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiscale structure in eco-evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacey, Blake C.

In a complex system, the individual components are neither so tightly coupled or correlated that they can all be treated as a single unit, nor so uncorrelated that they can be approximated as independent entities. Instead, patterns of interdependency lead to structure at multiple scales of organization. Evolution excels at producing such complex structures. In turn, the existence of these complex interrelationships within a biological system affects the evolutionary dynamics of that system. I present a mathematical formalism for multiscale structure, grounded in information theory, which makes these intuitions quantitative, and I show how dynamics defined in terms of population genetics or evolutionary game theory can lead to multiscale organization. For complex systems, "more is different," and I address this from several perspectives. Spatial host--consumer models demonstrate the importance of the structures which can arise due to dynamical pattern formation. Evolutionary game theory reveals the novel effects which can result from multiplayer games, nonlinear payoffs and ecological stochasticity. Replicator dynamics in an environment with mesoscale structure relates to generalized conditionalization rules in probability theory. The idea of natural selection "acting at multiple levels" has been mathematized in a variety of ways, not all of which are equivalent. We will face down the confusion, using the experience developed over the course of this thesis to clarify the situation.

System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Homer, Jack B.; Hirsch, Gary B.

2006-01-01

The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is well suited to address the dynamic complexity that characterizes many public health issues. The system dynamics approach involves the development of computer simulation models that portray processes of accumulation and feedback and that may be tested systematically to find effective policies for overcoming policy resistance. System dynamics modeling of chronic disease prevention should seek to incorporate all the basic elements of a modern ecological approach, including disease outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and health-related resources and delivery systems. System dynamics shows promise as a means of modeling multiple interacting diseases and risks, the interaction of delivery systems and diseased populations, and matters of national and state policy. PMID:16449591

Life-histories from Landsat: Algorithmic approaches to distilling Earth's recent ecological dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, R. E.; Yang, Z.; Braaten, J.; Cohen, W. B.; Ohmann, J.; Gregory, M.; Roberts, H.; Meigs, G. W.; Nelson, P.; Pfaff, E.

2012-12-01

As the longest running continuous satellite Earth-observation record, data from the Landsat family of sensors have the potential to uniquely reveal temporal dynamics critical to many terrestrial disciplines. The convergence of a free-data access policy in the late 2000s with a rapid rise in computing and storage capacity has highlighted an increasinagly common challenge: effective distillation of information from large digital datasets. Here, we describe how an algorithmic workflow informed by basic understanding of ecological processes is being used to convert multi-terabyte image time-series datasets into concise renditions of landscape dynamics. Using examples from our own work, we show how these are in turn applied to monitor vegetative disturbance and growth dynamics in national parks, to evaluate effectiveness of natural resource policy in national forests, to constrain and inform biogeochemical models, to measure carbon impacts of natural and anthropogenic stressors, to assess impacts of land use change on threatened species, to educate and inform students, and to better characterize complex links between changing climate, insect pathogens, and wildfire in forests.

Carrying capacity of water resources in Bandung Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marganingrum, D.

2018-02-01

The concept of carrying capacity is widely used in various sectors as a management tool for sustainable development processes. This idea has also been applied in watershed or basin scale. Bandung Basin is the upstream of Citarum watershed known as one of the national strategic areas. This area has developed into a metropolitan area loaded with various environmental problems. Therefore, research that is related to environmental carrying capacity in this area becomes a strategic issue. However, research on environmental carrying capacity that has been done in this area is still partial either in water balance terminology, land suitability, ecological footprint, or balance of supply and demand of resources. This paper describes the application of the concept of integrated environmental carrying capacity in order to overcome the increasing complexity and dynamic environmental problems. The sector that becomes the focus of attention is the issue of water resources. The approach method to be carried out is to combine the concept of maximum balance and system dynamics. The dynamics of the proposed system is the ecological dynamics and population that cannot be separated from one another as a unity of the Bandung Basin ecosystem.

The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Passeri, Davina L.; Hagen, Scott C.; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Alizad, Karim; Wang, Dingbao

2015-01-01

Coastal responses to sea level rise (SLR) include inundation of wetlands, increased shoreline erosion, and increased flooding during storm events. Hydrodynamic parameters such as tidal ranges, tidal prisms, tidal asymmetries, increased flooding depths and inundation extents during storm events respond nonadditively to SLR. Coastal morphology continually adapts toward equilibrium as sea levels rise, inducing changes in the landscape. Marshes may struggle to keep pace with SLR and rely on sediment accumulation and the availability of suitable uplands for migration. Whether hydrodynamic, morphologic, or ecologic, the impacts of SLR are interrelated. To plan for changes under future sea levels, coastal managers need information and data regarding the potential effects of SLR to make informed decisions for managing human and natural communities. This review examines previous studies that have accounted for the dynamic, nonlinear responses of hydrodynamics, coastal morphology, and marsh ecology to SLR by implementing more complex approaches rather than the simplistic “bathtub” approach. These studies provide an improved understanding of the dynamic effects of SLR on coastal environments and contribute to an overall paradigm shift in how coastal scientists and engineers approach modeling the effects of SLR, transitioning away from implementing the “bathtub” approach. However, it is recommended that future studies implement a synergetic approach that integrates the dynamic interactions between physical and ecological environments to better predict the impacts of SLR on coastal systems.

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics branch--interdisciplinary research for addressing complex natural resource issues across landscapes and time

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowen, Zachary H.; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Wilson, Juliette T.

2013-01-01

The Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center offers an interdisciplinary team of talented and creative scientists with expertise in biology, botany, ecology, geology, biogeochemistry, physical sciences, geographic information systems, and remote-sensing, for tackling complex questions about natural resources. As demand for natural resources increases, the issues facing natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry, and private landowners are increasing in spatial and temporal scope, often involving entire regions, multiple jurisdictions, and long timeframes. Needs for addressing these issues include (1) a better understanding of biotic and abiotic ecosystem components and their complex interactions; (2) the ability to easily monitor, assess, and visualize the spatially complex movements of animals, plants, water, and elements across highly variable landscapes; and (3) the techniques for accurately predicting both immediate and long-term responses of system components to natural and human-caused change. The overall objectives of our research are to provide the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, state agencies, and other stakeholders in their endeavors to meet the demand for natural resources while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Dynamics scientists use field and laboratory research, data assimilation, and ecological modeling to understand ecosystem patterns, trends, and mechanistic processes. This information is used to predict the outcomes of changes imposed on species, habitats, landscapes, and climate across spatiotemporal scales. The products we develop include conceptual models to illustrate system structure and processes; regional baseline and integrated assessments; predictive spatial and mathematical models; literature syntheses; and frameworks or protocols for improved ecosystem monitoring, adaptive management, and program evaluation. The descriptions in this fact sheet provide snapshots of our three research emphases, followed by descriptions of select current projects.

Disturbance Dynamics and Ecological Response: The Contribution of Long-Term Ecological Research.

Treesearch

MONICA G. TURNER; SCOTT L. COLLINS; ARIEL L. LUGO; JOHN J. MAGNUSON; T. SCOTT RUPP; FREDERICK J. SWANSON

2003-01-01

Long-term ecological research is particularly valuable for understanding disturbance dynamics over long time periods and placing those dynamics in a regional context.We highlighted three case studies from Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network sites that have contributed to understanding the causes and consequences of disturbance in ecological systems. The LTER...

Challenges in microbial ecology: building predictive understanding of community function and dynamics

PubMed Central

Widder, Stefanie; Allen, Rosalind J; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Curtis, Thomas P; Wiuf, Carsten; Sloan, William T; Cordero, Otto X; Brown, Sam P; Momeni, Babak; Shou, Wenying; Kettle, Helen; Flint, Harry J; Haas, Andreas F; Laroche, Béatrice; Kreft, Jan-Ulrich; Rainey, Paul B; Freilich, Shiri; Schuster, Stefan; Milferstedt, Kim; van der Meer, Jan R; Groβkopf, Tobias; Huisman, Jef; Free, Andrew; Picioreanu, Cristian; Quince, Christopher; Klapper, Isaac; Labarthe, Simon; Smets, Barth F; Wang, Harris; Soyer, Orkun S

2016-01-01

The importance of microbial communities (MCs) cannot be overstated. MCs underpin the biogeochemical cycles of the earth's soil, oceans and the atmosphere, and perform ecosystem functions that impact plants, animals and humans. Yet our ability to predict and manage the function of these highly complex, dynamically changing communities is limited. Building predictive models that link MC composition to function is a key emerging challenge in microbial ecology. Here, we argue that addressing this challenge requires close coordination of experimental data collection and method development with mathematical model building. We discuss specific examples where model–experiment integration has already resulted in important insights into MC function and structure. We also highlight key research questions that still demand better integration of experiments and models. We argue that such integration is needed to achieve significant progress in our understanding of MC dynamics and function, and we make specific practical suggestions as to how this could be achieved. PMID:27022995

Groundwater–surface water mixing shifts ecological assembly processes and stimulates organic carbon turnover

DOE PAGES

Stegen, James C.; Fredrickson, James K.; Wilkins, Michael J.; ...

2016-04-07

Environmental transition zones are associated with geochemical gradients that overcome energy limitations to microbial metabolism, resulting in biogeochemical hot spots and moments. Riverine systems where groundwater mixes with surface water (the hyporheic zone) are spatially complex and temporally dynamic, making development of predictive models challenging. Spatial and temporal variations in hyporheic zone microbial communities are a key, but understudied, component of riverine biogeochemical function. To investigate the coupling among groundwater-surface water mixing, microbial communities, and biogeochemistry we applied ecological theory, aqueous biogeochemistry, DNA sequencing, and ultra-high resolution organic carbon profiling to field samples collected across times and locations representing amore » broad range of mixing conditions. Mixing of groundwater and surface water resulted in a shift from transport-driven stochastic dynamics to a deterministic microbial structure associated with elevated biogeochemical rates. While the dynamics of the hyporheic make predictive modeling a challenge, we provide new knowledge that can improve the tractability of such models.« less

Ecological networks to unravel the routes to horizontal transposon transfers.

PubMed

Venner, Samuel; Miele, Vincent; Terzian, Christophe; Biémont, Christian; Daubin, Vincent; Feschotte, Cédric; Pontier, Dominique

2017-02-01

Transposable elements (TEs) represent the single largest component of numerous eukaryotic genomes, and their activity and dispersal constitute an important force fostering evolutionary innovation. The horizontal transfer of TEs (HTT) between eukaryotic species is a common and widespread phenomenon that has had a profound impact on TE dynamics and, consequently, on the evolutionary trajectory of many species' lineages. However, the mechanisms promoting HTT remain largely unknown. In this article, we argue that network theory combined with functional ecology provides a robust conceptual framework and tools to delineate how complex interactions between diverse organisms may act in synergy to promote HTTs.

Detection of time delays and directional interactions based on time series from complex dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Huanfei; Leng, Siyang; Tao, Chenyang; Ying, Xiong; Kurths, Jürgen; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lin, Wei

2017-07-01

Data-based and model-free accurate identification of intrinsic time delays and directional interactions is an extremely challenging problem in complex dynamical systems and their networks reconstruction. A model-free method with new scores is proposed to be generally capable of detecting single, multiple, and distributed time delays. The method is applicable not only to mutually interacting dynamical variables but also to self-interacting variables in a time-delayed feedback loop. Validation of the method is carried out using physical, biological, and ecological models and real data sets. Especially, applying the method to air pollution data and hospital admission records of cardiovascular diseases in Hong Kong reveals the major air pollutants as a cause of the diseases and, more importantly, it uncovers a hidden time delay (about 30-40 days) in the causal influence that previous studies failed to detect. The proposed method is expected to be universally applicable to ascertaining and quantifying subtle interactions (e.g., causation) in complex systems arising from a broad range of disciplines.

Grand Views of Evolution.

PubMed

de Vladar, Harold P; Santos, Mauro; Szathmáry, Eörs

2017-05-01

Despite major advances in evolutionary theories, some aspects of evolution remain neglected: whether evolution: would come to a halt without abiotic change; is unbounded and open-ended; or is progressive and something beyond fitness is maximized. Here, we discuss some models of ecology and evolution and argue that ecological change, resulting in Red Queen dynamics, facilitates (but does not ensure) innovation. We distinguish three forms of open-endedness. In weak open-endedness, novel phenotypes can occur indefinitely. Strong open-endedness requires the continual appearance of evolutionary novelties and/or innovations. Ultimate open-endedness entails an indefinite increase in complexity, which requires unlimited heredity. Open-ended innovation needs exaptations that generate novel niches. This can result in new traits and new rules as the dynamics unfolds, suggesting that evolution is not fully algorithmic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological Challenges for Closed Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Mark; Dempster, William; Allen, John P.

2012-07-01

Closed ecological systems are desirable for a number of purposes. In space life support systems, material closure allows precious life-supporting resources to be kept inside and recycled. Closure in small biospheric systems facilitates detailed measurement of global ecological processes and biogeochemical cycles. Closed testbeds facilitate research topics which require isolation from the outside (e.g. genetically modified organisms; radioisotopes) so their ecological interactions and fluxes can be studied separate from interactions with the outside environment. But to achieve and maintain closure entails solving complex ecological challenges. These challenges include being able to handle faster cycling rates and accentuated daily and seasonal fluxes of critical life elements such as carbon dioxide, oxygen, water, macro- and mico-nutrients. The problems of achieving sustainability in closed systems for life support include how to handle atmospheric dynamics including trace gases, producing a complete human diet and recycling nutrients and maintaining soil fertility, the sustaining of healthy air and water and preventing the loss of crucial elements from active circulation. In biospheric facilities the challenge is also to produce analogues to natural biomes and ecosystems, studying processes of self-organization and adaptation in systems that allow specification or determination of state variables and cycles which may be followed through all interactions from atmosphere to soils. Other challenges include the dynamics and genetics of small populations, the psychological challenges for small isolated human groups and measures and options which may be necessary to ensure long-term operation of closed ecological systems.

Key ecological challenges for closed systems facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Mark; Dempster, William F.; Allen, John P.

2013-07-01

Closed ecological systems are desirable for a number of purposes. In space life support systems, material closure allows precious life-supporting resources to be kept inside and recycled. Closure in small biospheric systems facilitates detailed measurement of global ecological processes and biogeochemical cycles. Closed testbeds facilitate research topics which require isolation from the outside (e.g. genetically modified organisms; radioisotopes) so their ecological interactions and fluxes can be studied separate from interactions with the outside environment. But to achieve and maintain closure entails solving complex ecological challenges. These challenges include being able to handle faster cycling rates and accentuated daily and seasonal fluxes of critical life elements such as carbon dioxide, oxygen, water, macro- and mico-nutrients. The problems of achieving sustainability in closed systems for life support include how to handle atmospheric dynamics including trace gases, producing a complete human diet, recycling nutrients and maintaining soil fertility, the maintenance of healthy air and water and preventing the loss of critical elements from active circulation. In biospheric facilities, the challenge is also to produce analogues to natural biomes and ecosystems, studying processes of self-organization and adaptation in systems that allow specification or determination of state variables and cycles which may be followed through all interactions from atmosphere to soils. Other challenges include the dynamics and genetics of small populations, the psychological challenges for small isolated human groups and backup technologies and strategic options which may be necessary to ensure long-term operation of closed ecological systems.

What can forest managers learn from research on fossil insects? Linking forest ecological history, biodiversity and management

Treesearch

Nicki J. Whitehouse

2006-01-01

This paper outlines the usefulness of using fossil insects, particularly Coleoptera (beetles), preserved in waterlogged palaeoenvironmental and archaeological deposits in understanding the changing nature of forest ecosystems and their associated insect population dynamics over the last 10,000 years. Research in Europe has highlighted the complex nature of early forest...

Approaches to incorporating climate change effects in state and transition simulation models of vegetation

Treesearch

Becky K. Kerns; Miles A. Hemstrom; David Conklin; Gabriel I. Yospin; Bart Johnson; Dominique Bachelet; Scott Bridgham

2012-01-01

Understanding landscape vegetation dynamics often involves the use of scientifically-based modeling tools that are capable of testing alternative management scenarios given complex ecological, management, and social conditions. State-and-transition simulation model (STSM) frameworks and software such as PATH and VDDT are commonly used tools that simulate how landscapes...

Structure and development of old-growth, unmanaged second-growth, and extended rotation Pinus resinosa forests in Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

Emily J. Silver; Anthony W. D' Amato; Shawn Fraver; Brian J. Palik; John B. Bradford

2013-01-01

The structure and developmental dynamics of old-growth forests often serve as important baselines for restoration prescriptions aimed at promoting more complex structural conditions in managed forest landscapes. Nonetheless, long-term information on natural patterns of development is rare for many commercially important and ecologically widespread forest types....

Urban ecological stewardship: understanding the structure, function and network of community-based urban land management

Treesearch

Erika s. Svendsen; Lindsay K. Campbell

2008-01-01

Urban environmental stewardship activities are on the rise in cities throughout the Northeast. Groups participating in stewardship activities range in age, size, and geography and represent an increasingly complex and dynamic arrangement of civil society, government and business sectors. To better understand the structure, function and network of these community-based...

Decision making under uncertainty: Recommendations for the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson

2015-01-01

The management of wildfire is a dynamic, complex, and fundamentally uncertain enterprise. Fire managers face uncertainties regarding fire weather and subsequent influence on fire behavior, the effects of fire on socioeconomic and ecological resources, and the efficacy of alternative suppression actions on fire outcomes. In these types of difficult decision environments...

Dynamic Plant-Plant-Herbivore Interactions Govern Plant Growth-Defence Integration.

PubMed

de Vries, Jorad; Evers, Jochem B; Poelman, Erik H

2017-04-01

Plants downregulate their defences against insect herbivores upon impending competition for light. This has long been considered a resource trade-off, but recent advances in plant physiology and ecology suggest this mechanism is more complex. Here we propose that to understand why plants regulate and balance growth and defence, the complex dynamics in plant-plant competition and plant-herbivore interactions needs to be considered. Induced growth-defence responses affect plant competition and herbivore colonisation in space and time, which has consequences for the adaptive value of these responses. Assessing these complex interactions strongly benefits from advanced modelling tools that can model multitrophic interactions in space and time. Such an exercise will allow a critical re-evaluation why and how plants integrate defence and competition for light. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seamount ecology and dynamics: A multidisciplinary data set from repeated surveys at different seamounts in the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean (2003 - 2013).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohn, C.; Christiansen, B.; Denda, A.; George, K. H.; Kaufmann, M.; Maranhão, M.; Martin, B.; Metzger, T.; Peine, F.; Schuster, A.; Springer, B.; Stefanowitsch, B.; Turnewitsch, R.; Wehrmann, H.

2016-02-01

Seamounts are amongst the most common physiographic open ocean systems, but remoteness and geographic complexity have limited the number of integrated and multidisciplinary seamount surveys in the past. As a consequence, important aspects of seamount ecology and dynamics remain poorly studied. Here we present a multi-parameter data set from individual and repeated seamount surveys conducted at different sites in the Northeast Atlantic and Eastern Mediterranean between 2003 and 2013. The main objective of these surveys was to establish a collection of ecosystem relevant descriptors and to develop a better understanding of seamount ecosystem composition and variability in different dynamical and bio-geographic environments. Measurements were conducted at four seamounts in the Northeast Atlantic (Ampère, Sedlo, Seine, Senghor) and two seamounts in the Eastern Mediterranean (Anaximenes, Eratosthenes). The data set comprises records from a total number of 11 cruises including physical oceanography (temperature, salinity, pressure, currents), biology (phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthos) and biogeochemistry (sedimentary particle dynamics, carbon flux). The resulting multi-disciplinary data collection provides a unique opportunity for comparative studies of seamount ecosystem structure and dynamics between different physical, biological and biogeochemical regimes

Alternative stable states and the sustainability of forests, grasslands, and agriculture

PubMed Central

Henderson, Kirsten A.; Bauch, Chris T.; Anand, Madhur

2016-01-01

Endangered forest–grassland mosaics interspersed with expanding agriculture and silviculture occur across many parts of the world, including the southern Brazilian highlands. This natural mosaic ecosystem is thought to reflect alternative stable states driven by threshold responses of recruitment to fire and moisture regimes. The role of adaptive human behavior in such systems remains understudied, despite its pervasiveness and the fact that such ecosystems can exhibit complex dynamics. We develop a nonlinear mathematical model of coupled human–environment dynamics in mosaic systems and social processes regarding conservation and economic land valuation. Our objective is to better understand how the coupled dynamics respond to changes in ecological and social conditions. The model is parameterized with southern Brazilian data on mosaic ecology, land-use profits, and questionnaire results concerning landowner preferences and conservation values. We find that the mosaic presently resides at a crucial juncture where relatively small changes in social conditions can generate a wide variety of possible outcomes, including complete loss of mosaics; large-amplitude, long-term oscillations between land states that preclude ecosystem stability; and conservation of the mosaic even to the exclusion of agriculture/silviculture. In general, increasing the time horizon used for conservation decision making is more likely to maintain mosaic stability. In contrast, increasing the inherent conservation value of either forests or grasslands is more likely to induce large oscillations—especially for forests—due to feedback from rarity-based conservation decisions. Given the potential for complex dynamics, empirically grounded nonlinear dynamical models should play a larger role in policy formulation for human–environment mosaic ecosystems. PMID:27956605

Alternative stable states and the sustainability of forests, grasslands, and agriculture.

PubMed

Henderson, Kirsten A; Bauch, Chris T; Anand, Madhur

2016-12-20

Endangered forest-grassland mosaics interspersed with expanding agriculture and silviculture occur across many parts of the world, including the southern Brazilian highlands. This natural mosaic ecosystem is thought to reflect alternative stable states driven by threshold responses of recruitment to fire and moisture regimes. The role of adaptive human behavior in such systems remains understudied, despite its pervasiveness and the fact that such ecosystems can exhibit complex dynamics. We develop a nonlinear mathematical model of coupled human-environment dynamics in mosaic systems and social processes regarding conservation and economic land valuation. Our objective is to better understand how the coupled dynamics respond to changes in ecological and social conditions. The model is parameterized with southern Brazilian data on mosaic ecology, land-use profits, and questionnaire results concerning landowner preferences and conservation values. We find that the mosaic presently resides at a crucial juncture where relatively small changes in social conditions can generate a wide variety of possible outcomes, including complete loss of mosaics; large-amplitude, long-term oscillations between land states that preclude ecosystem stability; and conservation of the mosaic even to the exclusion of agriculture/silviculture. In general, increasing the time horizon used for conservation decision making is more likely to maintain mosaic stability. In contrast, increasing the inherent conservation value of either forests or grasslands is more likely to induce large oscillations-especially for forests-due to feedback from rarity-based conservation decisions. Given the potential for complex dynamics, empirically grounded nonlinear dynamical models should play a larger role in policy formulation for human-environment mosaic ecosystems.

Transformative environmental governance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chaffin, Brian C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Harm Benson, Melinda; Angeler, David G.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Cosens, Barbara; Kundis Craig, Robin; Ruhl, J.B.; Allen, Craig R.

2016-01-01

Transformative governance is an approach to environmental governance that has the capacity to respond to, manage, and trigger regime shifts in coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) at multiple scales. The goal of transformative governance is to actively shift degraded SESs to alternative, more desirable, or more functional regimes by altering the structures and processes that define the system. Transformative governance is rooted in ecological theories to explain cross-scale dynamics in complex systems, as well as social theories of change, innovation, and technological transformation. Similar to adaptive governance, transformative governance involves a broad set of governance components, but requires additional capacity to foster new social-ecological regimes including increased risk tolerance, significant systemic investment, and restructured economies and power relations. Transformative governance has the potential to actively respond to regime shifts triggered by climate change, and thus future research should focus on identifying system drivers and leading indicators associated with social-ecological thresholds.

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O.; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs. PMID:29136658

The use of mechanistic descriptions of algal growth and zooplankton grazing in an estuarine eutrophication model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baird, M. E.; Walker, S. J.; Wallace, B. B.; Webster, I. T.; Parslow, J. S.

2003-03-01

A simple model of estuarine eutrophication is built on biomechanical (or mechanistic) descriptions of a number of the key ecological processes in estuaries. Mechanistically described processes include the nutrient uptake and light capture of planktonic and benthic autotrophs, and the encounter rates of planktonic predators and prey. Other more complex processes, such as sediment biogeochemistry, detrital processes and phosphate dynamics, are modelled using empirical descriptions from the Port Phillip Bay Environmental Study (PPBES) ecological model. A comparison is made between the mechanistically determined rates of ecological processes and the analogous empirically determined rates in the PPBES ecological model. The rates generally agree, with a few significant exceptions. Model simulations were run at a range of estuarine depths and nutrient loads, with outputs presented as the annually averaged biomass of autotrophs. The simulations followed a simple conceptual model of eutrophication, suggesting a simple biomechanical understanding of estuarine processes can provide a predictive tool for ecological processes in a wide range of estuarine ecosystems.

Ecological, biogeochemical and salinity changes in coastal lakes and wetlands over the last 200 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Lucy; Holmes, Jonathan; Horne, David

2016-04-01

Shallow lakes provide extensive ecosystem services and are ecologically important aquatic resources supporting a diverse flora and fauna. In marginal-marine areas, where such lakes are subjected to the multiple pressures of coastal erosion, sea level rise, increasing sea surface temperature and increasing frequency and intensity of storm surges, environments are complex and unstable. They are characterised by physico-chemical variations due to climatic (precipitation/evaporation cycles) and dynamic factors (tides, currents, freshwater drainage and sea level changes). Combined with human activity in the catchment these processes can alter the salinity, habitat and ecology of coastal fresh- to brackish water ecosystems. In this study the chemical and biological stability of coastal lakes forming the Upper Thurne catchment in the NE of the Norfolk Broads, East Anglia, UK are seriously threatened by long-term changes in salinity resulting from storm surges, complex hydrogeology and anthropogenic activity in the catchment. Future management decisions depend on a sound understanding of the potential ecological impacts, but such understanding is limited by short-term observations and measurements. This research uses palaeolimnological approaches, which can be validated and calibrated with historical records, to reconstruct changes in the aquatic environment on a longer time scale than can be achieved by observations alone. Here, salinity is quantitatively reconstructed using the trace-element geochemistry (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) of low Mg-calcite shells of Ostracoda (microscopic bivalved crustaceans) and macrophyte and macroinvertebrate macrofossil remains are used as a proxy to assess ecological change in response to variations in salinity. δ13C values of Cladocera (which are potentially outcompeted by the mysid Neomysis integer with increasing salinity and eutrophication) can be used to reconstruct carbon cycling and energy pathways in lake food webs, which alongside reconstructions of salinity and eutrophication can aid the disentanglement of environmental drivers and increase understanding on the interactions between ecology and biogeochemical cycles within the lake. Previous palaeolimnological work on the Thurne Broads system has suggested shifts between macrophyte abundance and loss within a framework of rising salinity (varying between 1.8-8.7‰ and eutrophication (phosphorus loading greater than 100μg-1). A complex combination of salinity, eutrophication, toxicity and associated changes in habitat have acted as drivers for ecological change over the past 200 years, but these interactions have not previously been well understood. By combining reconstructions of palaeosalinity, biodiversity, food web dynamics, redox conditions and eutrophication, the interaction between and controls on long-term variations in shallow lake environments can be further explored.

Interpreting participatory Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as complex networks in the social-ecological systems of the Amazonian forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varela, Consuelo; Tarquis, Ana M.; Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene; Estebe, Paloma; Toledo, Marisol; Martorano, Lucieta

2015-04-01

Social-ecological systems are linked complex systems that represent interconnected human and biophysical processes evolving and adapting across temporal and spatial scales. In the real world, social-ecological systems pose substantial challenges for modeling. In this regard, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) have proven to be a useful method for capturing the functioning of this type of systems. FCMs are a semi-quantitative type of cognitive map that represent a system composed of relevant factors and weighted links showing the strength and direction of cause-effects relationships among factors. Therefore, FCMs can be interpreted as complex system structures or complex networks. In this sense, recent research has applied complex network concepts for the analysis of FCMs that represent social-ecological systems. Key to FCM the tool is its potential to allow feedback loops and to include stakeholder knowledge in the construction of the tool. Also, previous research has demonstrated their potential to represent system dynamics and simulate the effects of changes in the system, such as policy interventions. For illustrating this analysis, we have developed a series of participatory FCM for the study of the ecological and human systems related to biodiversity conservation in two case studies of the Amazonian region, the Bolivia lowlands of Guarayos and the Brazil Tapajos National forest. The research is carried out in the context of the EU project ROBIN1 and it is based on the development of a series of stakeholder workshops to analyze the current state of the socio-ecological environment in the Amazonian forest, reflecting conflicts and challenges for biodiversity conservation and human development. Stakeholders included all relevant actors in the local case studies, namely farmers, environmental groups, producer organizations, local and provincial authorities and scientists. In both case studies we illustrate the use of complex networks concepts, such as the adjacency matrix and centrality properties (e.g.: centrality, page-rank, betweenness centrality). Different measures of network centrality evidence that deforestation and loss of biodiversity are the most relevant factors in the FCM of the two case studies analyzed. In both cases agricultural expansion emerges as a key driver of deforestation. The lack of policy coordination and a weak implementation and enforcement are also highly influential factors. The analysis of the system's dynamics suggest that in the case of Bolivia forest fires and deforestation are likely to continue in the immediate future as illegal activities are maintained and poverty increases. In the case of Brazil a decrease in available viable economic activities is driving further deforestation and ecosystem services loss. Overall, the research evidences how using FCMs together with complex network analysis can support policy development by identifying key elements and processes upon which policy makers and institutions can take action. Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the EU project ROBIN (The Role of Biodiversity in Climate Change Mitigation, from the EC FP7, no 283093) and the Spanish project AL14-PID-12 (Biodiversidad y cambio climático en la Amazonía: Perspectivas socio-económicas y ambientales) of the UPM Latin America Cooperation Program for funding this research.

Remote Sensing Proxies for Vector-borne Disease Risk Assessment (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anyamba, A.

2010-12-01

The spread of re-emerging vector-borne diseases such Rift Valley fever (RVF) and Chikungunya (CHIK) is a major issue of global public health concern. This combined with a variable climate regime has opened an avenue for satellite remote sensing to contribute towards a comprehensive understanding of some of the drivers influencing such vector-borne disease outbreaks. Satellite derived measurements such as vegetation indices, rainfall estimates, and land-surface temperature; can be used to infer the complex mosaic of factors that influence ecology and habitat suitability, emergence and population dynamics of disease vectors. However, there are still some gaps in application including appropriate temporal resolution of remote sensing measurements, the complexity of the virus-vector-disease-ecology system and human components that contribute to disease risk that need to be addressed. Geographic Distribution of Recent Rift Valley fever oubreaks

Sensitivity analysis of Repast computational ecology models with R/Repast.

PubMed

Prestes García, Antonio; Rodríguez-Patón, Alfonso

2016-12-01

Computational ecology is an emerging interdisciplinary discipline founded mainly on modeling and simulation methods for studying ecological systems. Among the existing modeling formalisms, the individual-based modeling is particularly well suited for capturing the complex temporal and spatial dynamics as well as the nonlinearities arising in ecosystems, communities, or populations due to individual variability. In addition, being a bottom-up approach, it is useful for providing new insights on the local mechanisms which are generating some observed global dynamics. Of course, no conclusions about model results could be taken seriously if they are based on a single model execution and they are not analyzed carefully. Therefore, a sound methodology should always be used for underpinning the interpretation of model results. The sensitivity analysis is a methodology for quantitatively assessing the effect of input uncertainty in the simulation output which should be incorporated compulsorily to every work based on in-silico experimental setup. In this article, we present R/Repast a GNU R package for running and analyzing Repast Simphony models accompanied by two worked examples on how to perform global sensitivity analysis and how to interpret the results.

An ecological dynamics rationale to explain home advantage in professional football

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gama, José; Dias, Gonçalo; Couceiro, Micael; Passos, Pedro; Davids, Keith; Ribeiro, João

2016-03-01

Despite clear findings, research on home advantage in team sports lacks a comprehensive theoretical rationale for understanding why this phenomenon is so compelling. The aim of this study was to provide an explanatory theoretical rationale in ecological dynamics for the influence of home advantage observed in research on professional football. We recorded 30 competitive matches and analyzed 13958 passes, from one highly successful team in the Portuguese Premier League, during season 2010/2011. Performance data were analyzed using the Match Analysis Software—Amisco® (version 3.3.7.25), allowing us to characterize team activity profiles. Results were interpreted from an ecological dynamics perspective, explaining how task and environmental constraints of a competitive football setting required performers to continuously co-adapt to teammate behaviors. Despite slight differences in percentage of ball possession when playing home or away, the number of passes achieved by the team, while in possession of the ball, was quite different between home or away venues. When playing at home, the number of passes performed by the team was considerably higher than when playing away. The explanation proposed in this study for a home advantage effect can be understood from studying interpersonal coordination tendencies of team sports players as agents in a complex adaptive system.

Stable isotopes and elasmobranchs: tissue types, methods, applications and assumptions.

PubMed

Hussey, N E; MacNeil, M A; Olin, J A; McMeans, B C; Kinney, M J; Chapman, D D; Fisk, A T

2012-04-01

Stable-isotope analysis (SIA) can act as a powerful ecological tracer with which to examine diet, trophic position and movement, as well as more complex questions pertaining to community dynamics and feeding strategies or behaviour among aquatic organisms. With major advances in the understanding of the methodological approaches and assumptions of SIA through dedicated experimental work in the broader literature coupled with the inherent difficulty of studying typically large, highly mobile marine predators, SIA is increasingly being used to investigate the ecology of elasmobranchs (sharks, skates and rays). Here, the current state of SIA in elasmobranchs is reviewed, focusing on available tissues for analysis, methodological issues relating to the effects of lipid extraction and urea, the experimental dynamics of isotopic incorporation, diet-tissue discrimination factors, estimating trophic position, diet and mixing models and individual specialization and niche-width analyses. These areas are discussed in terms of assumptions made when applying SIA to the study of elasmobranch ecology and the requirement that investigators standardize analytical approaches. Recommendations are made for future SIA experimental work that would improve understanding of stable-isotope dynamics and advance their application in the study of sharks, skates and rays. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Watershed Health: The Need for a New Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeves, G.

2017-12-01

Watershed health is a measure of the condition of the aquatic ecosystem within a watershed and is indicated by a specific set of environmental conditions that provide desired ecological, social, and legal amenities. A watershed is deemed "healthy" if it has these attributes and the traditional management approach to maintaining or developing a healthy watershed is to create and maintain these specific conditions within the watershed. However, this approach may not be applicable to situations in which processes are complex, non-linear, and poorly understood. The focus on a specific set of conditions comes at the expense of recognizing the ecological processes that create and maintain habitats for an aquatic organisms and the ecological context in which they evolved, and may lead to further degradation or compromising of the ecosystems and landscapes of interest. An emerging perspective suggests that aquatic-riparian ecosystems possess a range of processes and attributes that are inherently complex, nonlinear, and dynamic and because of the variation in the size and asynchronous nature of disturbance events, conditions will vary over time among watersheds, resulting in a mosaic of biophysical conditions across the landscape. Thus, watershed health may not be a single condition but rather a suite of conditions similar to how terrestrial ecosystems are viewed, requiring an integrated assessment of a range of ecological conditions and consideration of the intactness of key ecological processes.

Ecosystems and the Biosphere as Complex Adaptive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levin, Simon A.

1998-01-01

Ecosystems are prototypical examples of complex adaptive systems, in which patterns at higher levels emerge from localized interactions and selection processes acting at lower levels. An essential aspect of such systems is nonlinearity, leading to historical dependency and multiple possible outcomes of dynamics. Given this, it is essential to determine the degree to which system features are determined by environmental conditions, and the degree to which they are the result of self-organization. Furthermore, given the multiple levels at which dynamics become apparent and at which selection can act, central issues relate to how evolution shapes ecosystems properties, and whether ecosystems become buffered to changes (more resilient) over their ecological and evolutionary development or proceed to critical states and the edge of chaos.

Modelling and mapping tick dynamics using volunteered observations.

PubMed

Garcia-Martí, Irene; Zurita-Milla, Raúl; van Vliet, Arnold J H; Takken, Willem

2017-11-14

Tick populations and tick-borne infections have steadily increased since the mid-1990s posing an ever-increasing risk to public health. Yet, modelling tick dynamics remains challenging because of the lack of data and knowledge on this complex phenomenon. Here we present an approach to model and map tick dynamics using volunteered data. This approach is illustrated with 9 years of data collected by a group of trained volunteers who sampled active questing ticks (AQT) on a monthly basis and for 15 locations in the Netherlands. We aimed at finding the main environmental drivers of AQT at multiple time-scales, and to devise daily AQT maps at the national level for 2014. Tick dynamics is a complex ecological problem driven by biotic (e.g. pathogens, wildlife, humans) and abiotic (e.g. weather, landscape) factors. We enriched the volunteered AQT collection with six types of weather variables (aggregated at 11 temporal scales), three types of satellite-derived vegetation indices, land cover, and mast years. Then, we applied a feature engineering process to derive a set of 101 features to characterize the conditions that yielded a particular count of AQT on a date and location. To devise models predicting the AQT, we use a time-aware Random Forest regression method, which is suitable to find non-linear relationships in complex ecological problems, and provides an estimation of the most important features to predict the AQT. We trained a model capable of fitting AQT with reduced statistical metrics. The multi-temporal study on the feature importance indicates that variables linked to water levels in the atmosphere (i.e. evapotranspiration, relative humidity) consistently showed a higher explanatory power than previous works using temperature. As a product of this study, we are able of mapping daily tick dynamics at the national level. This study paves the way towards the design of new applications in the fields of environmental research, nature management, and public health. It also illustrates how Citizen Science initiatives produce geospatial data collections that can support scientific analysis, thus enabling the monitoring of complex environmental phenomena.

Suppressive composts: microbial ecology links between abiotic environments and healthy plants.

PubMed

Hadar, Yitzhak; Papadopoulou, Kalliope K

2012-01-01

Suppressive compost provides an environment in which plant disease development is reduced, even in the presence of a pathogen and a susceptible host. Despite the numerous positive reports, its practical application is still limited. The main reason for this is the lack of reliable prediction and quality control tools for evaluation of the level and specificity of the suppression effect. Plant disease suppression is the direct result of the activity of consortia of antagonistic microorganisms that naturally recolonize the compost during the cooling phase of the process. Thus, it is imperative to increase the level of understanding of compost microbial ecology and population dynamics. This may lead to the development of an ecological theory for complex ecosystems as well as favor the establishment of hypothesis-driven studies.

Landscape approach to the formation of the ecological frame of Moscow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nizovtsev, Vyacheslav; Natalia, Erman

2015-04-01

The territory of Moscow, in particular in its former borders, is distinct for its strong transformation of the natural properties of virtually all types of landscape complexes. The modern landscape structure is characterized by fragmentation of natural land cover. Natural and quasinatural (natural and anthropogenic) landscape complexes with preserved natural structure are represented by isolated areas and occupy small areas. During recent years landscape diversity in general and biodiversity in particular have been rapidly declining, and many of the natural landscape complexes are under ever-increasing degradation. Ecological balance is broken, and preserved natural landscapes are not able to maintain it. Effective territorial organization of Moscow and the rational use of its territory are impossible without taking into account the natural component of the city as well as the properties and potential of the landscape complexes that integrate all natural features in specific areas. The formation of the ecological framework of the city is particularly important. It should be a single system of interrelated and complementary components that make up a single environmental space: habitat-forming cores (junctions), ecological corridors and elements of environmental infrastructure. Systemic unity of the environmental framework can support the territorial ecological compensation where a break of the ecological functions of one part of the system is compensated by maintaining or restoring them in another part and contribute to the polarization of incompatible types of land use. Habitat-forming cores should include as mandatory parts all the specifically protected natural areas (SPNAs), particularly valuable landscape complexes, as well as preserved adjacent forest areas. Their most important function should be to maintain resources and area reproducing abilities of landscapes, landscape diversity and biodiversity. Ecological corridors which perform environmental and operating transit functions should include unified landscape systems of river valleys, their hollow-beam upstreams and drained lows. The most important elements of environmental infrastructure include the most valuable forest and wetland complexes, springs and other landscape and aquatic complexes, cultural and historical landscape complexes, landscape complexes with high concentration of cultural heritage sites, sites of natural and green areas with great potential of natural and recreational resources, natural and recreational parks, natural monuments. They can serve as centers of landscape and biological diversity and perform partial transit (migration) and buffer functions. The territory of the ecological framework can be used for strictly regulated or limited recreation (tourism, short leisure). The adjacent natural and green spaces and natural parks may play a buffer role for the SPNAs and valuable landscape complexes. The spatial pattern of the landscape complexes of Moscow allows to create a single ecological framework based on the landscape, distinct for its interrelated and complementary components. Its basis may be consisted of uniform landscape complexes of valley outwash plains and river valleys, their hollow-beam upstreams and drained lows which perform system forming, environmental and transit functions. In the plan river valleys and small erosional forms are as if enclosed in the gullies and constitute single paradynamic systems unified by lateral flows. Therefore not only the edges of river valleys, but also the rear seams of the valley outwash plains should become important natural boundaries, limiting urban development of the area. Their most important functional feature is that they serve as local collectors and surface water runoff channels. These landscape complexes are distinct for most dynamic natural processes and thus negative exogenous processes. The authors have drawn indigenous (conditionally restored) and modern landscapes of Moscow on a scale of 1: 50,000 and on their basis an ecological framework map of Moscow. These maps are an important natural basis for the analysis of conditions and identification of limiting factors of the urban development of the big city.

Applying evolutionary concepts to wildlife disease ecology and management

PubMed Central

Vander Wal, Eric; Garant, Dany; Calmé, Sophie; Chapman, Colin A; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Millien, Virginie; Rioux-Paquette, Sébastien; Pelletier, Fanie

2014-01-01

Existing and emerging infectious diseases are among the most pressing global threats to biodiversity, food safety and human health. The complex interplay between host, pathogen and environment creates a challenge for conserving species, communities and ecosystem functions, while mediating the many known ecological and socio-economic negative effects of disease. Despite the clear ecological and evolutionary contexts of host–pathogen dynamics, approaches to managing wildlife disease remain predominantly reactionary, focusing on surveillance and some attempts at eradication. A few exceptional studies have heeded recent calls for better integration of ecological concepts in the study and management of wildlife disease; however, evolutionary concepts remain underused. Applied evolution consists of four principles: evolutionary history, genetic and phenotypic variation, selection and eco-evolutionary dynamics. In this article, we first update a classical framework for understanding wildlife disease to integrate better these principles. Within this framework, we explore the evolutionary implications of environment–disease interactions. Subsequently, we synthesize areas where applied evolution can be employed in wildlife disease management. Finally, we discuss some future directions and challenges. Here, we underscore that despite some evolutionary principles currently playing an important role in our understanding of disease in wild animals, considerable opportunities remain for fostering the practice of evolutionarily enlightened wildlife disease management. PMID:25469163

Applying evolutionary concepts to wildlife disease ecology and management.

PubMed

Vander Wal, Eric; Garant, Dany; Calmé, Sophie; Chapman, Colin A; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Millien, Virginie; Rioux-Paquette, Sébastien; Pelletier, Fanie

2014-08-01

Existing and emerging infectious diseases are among the most pressing global threats to biodiversity, food safety and human health. The complex interplay between host, pathogen and environment creates a challenge for conserving species, communities and ecosystem functions, while mediating the many known ecological and socio-economic negative effects of disease. Despite the clear ecological and evolutionary contexts of host-pathogen dynamics, approaches to managing wildlife disease remain predominantly reactionary, focusing on surveillance and some attempts at eradication. A few exceptional studies have heeded recent calls for better integration of ecological concepts in the study and management of wildlife disease; however, evolutionary concepts remain underused. Applied evolution consists of four principles: evolutionary history, genetic and phenotypic variation, selection and eco-evolutionary dynamics. In this article, we first update a classical framework for understanding wildlife disease to integrate better these principles. Within this framework, we explore the evolutionary implications of environment-disease interactions. Subsequently, we synthesize areas where applied evolution can be employed in wildlife disease management. Finally, we discuss some future directions and challenges. Here, we underscore that despite some evolutionary principles currently playing an important role in our understanding of disease in wild animals, considerable opportunities remain for fostering the practice of evolutionarily enlightened wildlife disease management.

Stability and dynamical properties of material flow systems on random networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anand, K.; Galla, T.

2009-04-01

The theory of complex networks and of disordered systems is used to study the stability and dynamical properties of a simple model of material flow networks defined on random graphs. In particular we address instabilities that are characteristic of flow networks in economic, ecological and biological systems. Based on results from random matrix theory, we work out the phase diagram of such systems defined on extensively connected random graphs, and study in detail how the choice of control policies and the network structure affects stability. We also present results for more complex topologies of the underlying graph, focussing on finitely connected Erdös-Réyni graphs, Small-World Networks and Barabási-Albert scale-free networks. Results indicate that variability of input-output matrix elements, and random structures of the underlying graph tend to make the system less stable, while fast price dynamics or strong responsiveness to stock accumulation promote stability.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

PubMed Central

Heesterbeek, Hans; Anderson, Roy; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken; Edmunds, John; Frost, Simon; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James; Metcalf, Jessica; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet; Roberts, Mick; Viboud, Cecile

2015-01-01

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational and spatial scales, which even within a single pathogen often span hours to months, cellular to ecosystem levels, and local to pandemic spread. Some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, while others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity, and dynamic human behavior, raise prevention and control from formerly national to international issues. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer essential tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing the quantitative evidence base for decision-making in global health. PMID:25766240

Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P

2013-01-01

Wildfire management in the United States and elsewhere is challenged by substantial uncertainty regarding the location and timing of fire events, the socioeconomic and ecological consequences of these events, and the costs of suppression. Escalating U.S. Forest Service suppression expenditures is of particular concern at a time of fiscal austerity as swelling fire management budgets lead to decreases for non-fire programs, and as the likelihood of disruptive within-season borrowing potentially increases. Thus there is a strong interest in better understanding factors influencing suppression decisions and in turn their influence on suppression costs. As a step in that direction, this paper presents a probabilistic analysis of geographic and temporal variation in incident management team response to wildfires. The specific focus is incident complexity dynamics through time for fires managed by the U.S. Forest Service. The modeling framework is based on the recognition that large wildfire management entails recurrent decisions across time in response to changing conditions, which can be represented as a stochastic dynamic system. Daily incident complexity dynamics are modeled according to a first-order Markov chain, with containment represented as an absorbing state. A statistically significant difference in complexity dynamics between Forest Service Regions is demonstrated. Incident complexity probability transition matrices and expected times until containment are presented at national and regional levels. Results of this analysis can help improve understanding of geographic variation in incident management and associated cost structures, and can be incorporated into future analyses examining the economic efficiency of wildfire management.

Incorporating food web dynamics into ecological restoration: a modeling approach for river ecosystems

Treesearch

J. Ryan Bellmore; Joseph R. Benjamin; Michael Newsom; Jennifer A. Bountry; Daniel Dombroski

2017-01-01

Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration...

Native American Youth Discourses on Language Shift and Retention: Ideological Cross-Currents and Their Implications for Language Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, Teresa L.; Romero-Little, Mary Eunice; Zepeda, Ofelia

2006-01-01

This paper examines preliminary findings from an ongoing federally funded study of Native language shift and retention in the US Southwest, focusing on in-depth ethnographic interviews with Navajo youth. We begin with an overview of Native American linguistic ecologies, noting the dynamic, variegated and complex nature of language proficiencies…

The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

A Typology of Agency in New Generation Learning Environments: Emerging Relational, Ecological and New Material Considerations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charteris, Jennifer; Smardon, Dianne

2018-01-01

The impetus to move to a new generation learning environments places a spotlight on the relational dynamics of classroom spaces. A key feature is the notion of learner agency. A complex notion, learner agency involves both compliance with and resistance to classroom norms and therefore is far more sophisticated than acting in acquiescence to…

Comparative trends in log populations in northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests following severe drought

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Scott C. Vojta

2017-01-01

Logs provide an important form of coarse woody debris in forest systems, contributing to numerous ecological processes and affecting wildlife habitat and fuel complexes. Despite this, little information is available on the dynamics of log populations in southwestern ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and especially mixed-conifer forests. A recent episode of elevated tree...

An ecosystemic approach to evaluating ecological, socioeconomic and group dynamics affecting the prevalence of Aedes aegypti in two Colombian towns.

PubMed

Quintero, Juliana; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Suárez, Roberto; González, Catalina; Olano, Victor A

2009-01-01

This article focuses on the epidemiological methods and results of a global Ecohealth study that explored the complexity of the relationship between ecological, biological, economical, social and political factors and vector presence. The study was carried out in two dengue endemic areas of Colombia. A transdisciplinary team gathered quantitative and qualitative data. A survey in randomly sampled households was applied and, simultaneously, direct observation of potential breeding sites was carried out. Logistic regressions and qualitative techniques were used. Qualitative and quantitative data were compared using triangulation. The presence of low water containers increases seven-fold the risk of finding immature forms of Aedes aegypti in the household (OR = 7.5; 95%CI: 1.7-32.2). An inverse association between socioeconomic stratum and presence of the vector was identified (Low stratum OR = 0.9; 95%CI: 0.6-1.4; High stratum OR =0.4; 95%CI: 0.07-1.7). Water management is a complex social dynamic associated with the presence of Ae. aegypti. Dengue control is a challenge for public health authorities and researchers as they should address promotion and prevention strategies that take into account cultural, behavioral, socioeconomic and health factors.

Complex systems: physics beyond physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holovatch, Yurij; Kenna, Ralph; Thurner, Stefan

2017-03-01

Complex systems are characterised by specific time-dependent interactions among their many constituents. As a consequence they often manifest rich, non-trivial and unexpected behaviour. Examples arise both in the physical and non-physical worlds. The study of complex systems forms a new interdisciplinary research area that cuts across physics, biology, ecology, economics, sociology, and the humanities. In this paper we review the essence of complex systems from a physicists' point of view, and try to clarify what makes them conceptually different from systems that are traditionally studied in physics. Our goal is to demonstrate how the dynamics of such systems may be conceptualised in quantitative and predictive terms by extending notions from statistical physics and how they can often be captured in a framework of co-evolving multiplex network structures. We mention three areas of complex-systems science that are currently studied extensively, the science of cities, dynamics of societies, and the representation of texts as evolutionary objects. We discuss why these areas form complex systems in the above sense. We argue that there exists plenty of new ground for physicists to explore and that methodical and conceptual progress is needed most.

Identifying legal, ecological and governance obstacles and opportunities for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cosens, Barbara; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.

2014-01-01

Current governance of regional scale water management systems in the United States has not placed them on a path toward sustainability, as conflict and gridlock characterize the social arena and ecosystem services continue to erode. Changing climate may continue this trajectory, but it also provides a catalyst for renewal of ecosystems and a window of opportunity for change in institutions. Resilience provides a bridging concept that predicts that change in ecological and social systems is often dramatic, abrupt, and surprising. Adapting to the uncertainty of climate driven change must be done in a manner perceived as legitimate by the participants in a democratic society. Adaptation must begin with the current hierarchical and fragmented social-ecological system as a baseline from which new approaches must be applied. Achieving a level of integration between ecological concepts and governance requires a dialogue across multiple disciplines, including ecologists with expertise in ecological resilience, hydrologists and climate experts, with social scientists and legal scholars. Criteria and models that link ecological dynamics with policies in complex, multi-jurisdictional water basins with adaptive management and governance frameworks may move these social-ecological systems toward greater sustainability.

Interdependence of geomorphic and ecologic resilience properties in a geographic context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony Stallins, J.; Corenblit, Dov

2018-03-01

Ecology and geomorphology recognize the dynamic aspects of resistance and resilience. However, formal resilience theory in ecology has tended to deemphasize the geomorphic habitat template. Conversely, landscape sensitivity and state-and-transition models in geomorphology downweight mechanisms of biotic adaptation operative in fluctuating, spatially explicit environments. Adding to the interdisciplinary challenge of understanding complex biogeomorphic systems is that environmental heterogeneity and overlapping gradients of disturbance complicate inference of the geographic patterns of resistance and resilience. We develop a conceptual model for comparing the resilience properties among barrier dunes. The model illustrates how adaptive cycles and panarchies, the formal building blocks of resilience recognized in ecology, can be expressed as a set of hierarchically nested geomorphic and ecological metrics. The variance structure of these data is proposed as a means to delineate different kinds and levels of resilience. Specifically, it is the dimensionality of these data and how geomorphic and ecological variables load on the first and succeeding axes that facilitates the delineation of resistance and resilience. The construction of dune topographic state space from observations among different barrier islands is proposed as a way to measure the interdependence of geomorphic and ecological resilience properties.

From single steps to mass migration: the problem of scale in the movement ecology of the Serengeti wildebeest.

PubMed

Torney, Colin J; Hopcraft, J Grant C; Morrison, Thomas A; Couzin, Iain D; Levin, Simon A

2018-05-19

A central question in ecology is how to link processes that occur over different scales. The daily interactions of individual organisms ultimately determine community dynamics, population fluctuations and the functioning of entire ecosystems. Observations of these multiscale ecological processes are constrained by various technological, biological or logistical issues, and there are often vast discrepancies between the scale at which observation is possible and the scale of the question of interest. Animal movement is characterized by processes that act over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Second-by-second decisions accumulate to produce annual movement patterns. Individuals influence, and are influenced by, collective movement decisions, which then govern the spatial distribution of populations and the connectivity of meta-populations. While the field of movement ecology is experiencing unprecedented growth in the availability of movement data, there remain challenges in integrating observations with questions of ecological interest. In this article, we present the major challenges of addressing these issues within the context of the Serengeti wildebeest migration, a keystone ecological phenomena that crosses multiple scales of space, time and biological complexity.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Interdependence of specialization and biodiversity in Phanerozoic marine invertebrates.

PubMed

Nürnberg, Sabine; Aberhan, Martin

2015-03-17

Studies of the dynamics of biodiversity often suggest that diversity has upper limits, but the complex interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes and the relative role of biotic and abiotic factors that set upper limits to diversity are poorly understood. Here we statistically assess the relationship between global biodiversity and the degree of habitat specialization of benthic marine invertebrates over the Phanerozoic eon. We show that variation in habitat specialization correlates positively with changes in global diversity, that is, times of high diversity coincide with more specialized faunas. We identify the diversity dynamics of specialists but not generalists, and origination rates but not extinction rates, as the main drivers of this ecological interdependence. Abiotic factors fail to show any significant relationship with specialization. Our findings suggest that the overall level of specialization and its fluctuations over evolutionary timescales are controlled by diversity-dependent processes--driven by interactions between organisms competing for finite resources.

More than a meal: integrating non-feeding interactions into food webs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kéfi, Sonia; Berlow, Eric L.; Wieters, Evie A.; Navarrete, Sergio A.; Petchey, Owen L.; Wood, Spencer A.; Boit, Alice; Joppa, Lucas N.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Williams, Richard J.; Martinez, Neo D.; Menge, Bruce A.; Blanchette, Carol A.; Iles, Alison C.; Brose, Ulrich

2012-01-01

Organisms eating each other are only one of many types of well documented and important interactions among species. Other such types include habitat modification, predator interference and facilitation. However, ecological network research has been typically limited to either pure food webs or to networks of only a few (<3) interaction types. The great diversity of non-trophic interactions observed in nature has been poorly addressed by ecologists and largely excluded from network theory. Herein, we propose a conceptual framework that organises this diversity into three main functional classes defined by how they modify specific parameters in a dynamic food web model. This approach provides a path forward for incorporating non-trophic interactions in traditional food web models and offers a new perspective on tackling ecological complexity that should stimulate both theoretical and empirical approaches to understanding the patterns and dynamics of diverse species interactions in nature.

DEB modeling for nanotoxicology, microbial ecology, and environmental engineering. Comment on: ;Physics of metabolic organization; by Marko Jusup et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Patricia A.

2017-03-01

Jusup et al. [1] appeal to mathematical physicists, and to biologists, by providing the theoretical basis for dynamic energy budget (DEB) modeling of individual organisms and populations, while emphasizing model simplicity, universality, and applicability to real world problems. Comments herein regard the disciplinary tensions proposed by the authors and suggest that-in addition to important applications in eco- and specifically nano-toxicology-there are opportunities for DEB frameworks to inform relative complexity in microbial ecological process modeling. This commentary also suggests another audience for bridging DEB theory and application-engineers solving environmental problems.

Quantifying the drivers of water security risks in a complex northern deltaic ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rokaya, P.; Wheater, H. S.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

2017-12-01

There is still a need for improved, scientific evaluations of potential impacts of a changing flow regime on the northern deltaic ecosystems. This is particularly the case for the Slave River Delta (SRD) which is believed to be drying. Although streamflow regulation in the major headwater tributary and climate change have been presented as major contributors of hydro-ecological change in the SRD, a wide range of drivers such as large scale water withdrawal, land-use change and flow modulation by the upstream delta (i.e. the Peace-Athabasca Delta) could pose challenges to water security. However, limited numbers of studies with inadequate data make it difficult to understand the principal drivers of the hydro-ecological changes. One of the least explored drivers is the upstream delta which attenuates the peak flows, retains the floodwater and reduces the downstream flood intensity. This can have significant impact on the productivity and ecological diversity of the SRD, which are governed by water and nutrient-rich sediment supplied during flood events. Thus, the Slave River basin presents a complex river system where multiple drivers are in interplay resulting in a different (new) flow regime. However, any river flow alterations could significantly affect this ecologically and socio-economically delicate ecosystem. In this study, we investigate the critical challenges related to water security in a complex deltaic ecosystem, quantifying the relative impacts of climate change, human interventions and the upstream delta on the SRD. We demonstrate that the sustainability issues of northern deltaic systems are dynamic, complex and multi-faceted, and require an understanding of intricate relationships and feedback mechanisms between human and natural systems.

Moving sociohydrology forward: a synthesis across studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, T. J.; Konar, M.; Srinivasan, V.; Thompson, S.

2015-03-01

Sociohydrology is the study of coupled human-water systems with the premise that water and human systems co-evolve, often with two-way coupling. A recent special issue in HESS/ESD, "Predictions under change: water, earth, and biota in the Anthropocene", includes a number of sociohydrologic publications that allow for a survey of the current state of understanding of sociohydrology and the coupled system dynamics and feedbacks, the research methodologies available, and the norms and ethics involved in studying sociohydrologic systems. Although sociohydrology is concerned with coupled human-water systems, it is critical to consider the sociohydrologic system as embedded in a larger, complex social-ecological system through which human-water feedbacks can occur and from which the sociohydrologic system cannot be isolated. As such, sociohydrology can draw on tools developed in the social-ecological and complex systems literature to further our sociohydrologic knowledge, and this is identified as a ripe area of future research.

Envisioning, quantifying, and managing thermal regimes on river networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steel, E. Ashley; Beechie, Timothy J.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Fullerton, Aimee H.

2017-01-01

Water temperatures fluctuate in time and space, creating diverse thermal regimes on river networks. Temporal variability in these thermal landscapes has important biological and ecological consequences because of nonlinearities in physiological reactions; spatial diversity in thermal landscapes provides aquatic organisms with options to maximize growth and survival. However, human activities and climate change threaten to alter the dynamics of riverine thermal regimes. New data and tools can identify particular facets of the thermal landscape that describe ecological and management concerns and that are linked to human actions. The emerging complexity of thermal landscapes demands innovations in communication, opens the door to exciting research opportunities on the human impacts to and biological consequences of thermal variability, suggests improvements in monitoring programs to better capture empirical patterns, provides a framework for suites of actions to restore and protect the natural processes that drive thermal complexity, and indicates opportunities for better managing thermal landscapes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gentry, T.; Schadt, C.; Zhou, J.

Microarray technology has the unparalleled potential tosimultaneously determine the dynamics and/or activities of most, if notall, of the microbial populations in complex environments such as soilsand sediments. Researchers have developed several types of arrays thatcharacterize the microbial populations in these samples based on theirphylogenetic relatedness or functional genomic content. Several recentstudies have used these microarrays to investigate ecological issues;however, most have only analyzed a limited number of samples withrelatively few experiments utilizing the full high-throughput potentialof microarray analysis. This is due in part to the unique analyticalchallenges that these samples present with regard to sensitivity,specificity, quantitation, and data analysis. Thismore » review discussesspecific applications of microarrays to microbial ecology research alongwith some of the latest studies addressing the difficulties encounteredduring analysis of complex microbial communities within environmentalsamples. With continued development, microarray technology may ultimatelyachieve its potential for comprehensive, high-throughput characterizationof microbial populations in near real-time.« less

Ecological Research Division Theoretical Ecology Program. [Contains abstracts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1990-10-01

This report presents the goals of the Theoretical Ecology Program and abstracts of research in progress. Abstracts cover both theoretical research that began as part of the terrestrial ecology core program and new projects funded by the theoretical program begun in 1988. Projects have been clustered into four major categories: Ecosystem dynamics; landscape/scaling dynamics; population dynamics; and experiment/sample design.

Biophysical controls on cluster dynamics and architectural differentiation of microbial biofilms in contrasting flow environments

PubMed Central

Hödl, Iris; Mari, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Suweis, Samir; Besemer, Katharina; Rinaldo, Andrea; Battin, Tom J

2014-01-01

Ecology, with a traditional focus on plants and animals, seeks to understand the mechanisms underlying structure and dynamics of communities. In microbial ecology, the focus is changing from planktonic communities to attached biofilms that dominate microbial life in numerous systems. Therefore, interest in the structure and function of biofilms is on the rise. Biofilms can form reproducible physical structures (i.e. architecture) at the millimetre-scale, which are central to their functioning. However, the spatial dynamics of the clusters conferring physical structure to biofilms remains often elusive. By experimenting with complex microbial communities forming biofilms in contrasting hydrodynamic microenvironments in stream mesocosms, we show that morphogenesis results in ‘ripple-like’ and ‘star-like’ architectures – as they have also been reported from monospecies bacterial biofilms, for instance. To explore the potential contribution of demographic processes to these architectures, we propose a size-structured population model to simulate the dynamics of biofilm growth and cluster size distribution. Our findings establish that basic physical and demographic processes are key forces that shape apparently universal biofilm architectures as they occur in diverse microbial but also in single-species bacterial biofilms. PMID:23879839

Understanding rapid evolution in predator‐prey interactions using the theory of fast‐slow dynamical systems.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H; Ellner, Stephen P

2010-11-01

The accumulation of evidence that ecologically important traits often evolve at the same time and rate as ecological dynamics (e.g., changes in species' abundances or spatial distributions) has outpaced theory describing the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes with comparable timescales. The disparity between experiment and theory is partially due to the high dimensionality of models that include both evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Here we show how the theory of fast-slow dynamical systems can be used to reduce model dimension, and we use that body of theory to study a general predator-prey system exhibiting fast evolution in either the predator or the prey. Our approach yields graphical methods with predictive power about when new and unique dynamics (e.g., completely out-of-phase oscillations and cryptic dynamics) can arise in ecological systems exhibiting fast evolution. In addition, we derive analytical expressions for determining when such behavior arises and how evolution affects qualitative properties of the ecological dynamics. Finally, while the theory requires a separation of timescales between the ecological and evolutionary processes, our approach yields insight into systems where the rates of those processes are comparable and thus is a step toward creating a general ecoevolutionary theory.

The importance of spatial fishing behavior for coral reef resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rassweiler, A.; Lauer, M.; Holbrook, S. J.

2016-02-01

Coral reefs are dynamic systems in which disturbances periodically reduce coral cover but are normally followed by recovery of the coral community. However, human activity may have reduced this resilience to disturbance in many coral reef systems, as an increasing number of reefs have undergone persistent transitions from coral-dominated to macroalgal-dominated community states. Fishing on herbivores may be one cause of reduced reef resilience, as lower herbivory can make it easier for macroalgae to become established after a disturbance. Despite the acknowledged importance of fishing, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential for feedbacks between ecosystem state and fisher behavior. Here we couple methods from environmental anthropology and ecology to explore these feedbacks between small-scale fisheries and coral reefs in Moorea, French Polynesia. We document how aspects of ecological state such as the abundance of macroalgae affect people's preference for fishing in particular lagoon habitats. We then incorporate biases towards fishing in certain ecological states into a spatially explicit bio-economic model of ecological dynamics and fishing in Moorea's lagoons. We find that feedbacks between spatial fishing behavior and ecological state can have critical effects on coral reefs. Presence of these spatial behaviors consistently leads to more coherence across the reef-scape. However, whether this coherence manifests as increased resilience or increased fragility depends on the spatial scales of fisher movement and the magnitudes of disturbance. These results emphasize the potential importance of spatially-explicit fishing behavior for reef resilience, but also the complexity of the feedbacks involved.

Ecological shift and resilience in China's lake systems during the last two centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ke; Dong, Xuhui; Yang, Xiangdong; Kattel, Giri; Zhao, Yanjie; Wang, Rong

2018-06-01

The worldwide decline of wetland ecosystems calls for an urgent reassessment of their current status from a resilience perspective. Understanding the trajectories of changes that have produced the current situation is fundamental for assessing system resilience. Here, we examine long-term dynamics of wetland ecosystem change by reviewing paleoecological records from 11 representative lakes in China. We identify unprecedented change in alga communities in the context of last two centuries. Striking ecological shifts have occurred in all lakes, yet with spatial and temporal differences. The long-term trajectories of change in diatom species composition and structure indicate gradually eroded system resilience. These ecological shifts were shaped by socio-economic activities as China transformed from a rural agricultural to an industrialized society within the last several decades, during which multiple drivers have accumulated and acted synergistically. The balance between ecosystem and society, which appeared to exist for thousands of years, was broken by increasing population, new technology, and urbanization since the 1980s. The consequences are the emergence of new positive feedbacks with the potential to drive the coupled systems into undesirable states. By linking long-term social and ecological change at a regional scale, our study provides a novel contribution to the understanding of lake ecosystems resilience in present-day China. We argue that sustaining wetland ecosystems requires integrated approaches that incorporate a deeper understanding of social-ecological dynamics over decadal-centennial timescales to address the complex underlying mechanisms leading to the current degradation.

FISHER INFORMATION AND DYNAMIC REGIME CHANGES IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Fisher Information and Dynamic Regime Changes in Ecological Systems
Abstract for the 3rd Conference of the International Society for Ecological Informatics
Audrey L. Mayer, Christopher W. Pawlowski, and Heriberto Cabezas

The sustainable nature of particular dynamic...

Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios.

PubMed

Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Nagaki, Sandra Sayuri; Sant'Ana, Denise Cristina; Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb

2015-08-19

Malaria remains a significant public health issue in South America. Future climate change may influence the distribution of the disease, which is dependent on the distribution of those Anopheles mosquitoes competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum. Herein, predictive niche models of the habitat suitability for P. falciparum, the current primary vector Anopheles darlingi and nine other known and/or potential vector species of the Neotropical Albitarsis Complex, were used to document the current situation and project future scenarios under climate changes in South America in 2070. To build each ecological niche model, we employed topography, climate and biome, and the currently defined distribution of P. falciparum, An. darlingi and nine species comprising the Albitarsis Complex in South America. Current and future (i.e., 2070) distributions were forecast by projecting the fitted ecological niche model onto the current environmental situation and two scenarios of simulated climate change. Statistical analyses were performed between the parasite and each vector in both the present and future scenarios to address potential vector roles in the dynamics of malaria transmission. Current distributions of malaria vector species were associated with that of P. falciparum, confirming their role in transmission, especially An. darlingi, An. marajoara and An. deaneorum. Projected climate changes included higher temperatures, lower water availability and biome modifications. Regardless of future scenarios considered, the geographic distribution of P. falciparum was exacerbated in 2070 South America, with the distribution of the pathogen covering 35-46% of the continent. As the current primary vector An. darlingi showed low tolerance for drier environments, the projected climate change would significantly reduce suitable habitat, impacting both its distribution and abundance. Conversely, climate generalist members of the Albitarsis Complex showed significant spatial and temporal expansion potential in 2070, and we conclude these species will become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America. Our data suggest that climate and landscape effects will elevate the importance of members of the Albitarsis Complex in malaria transmission in South America in 2070, highlighting the need for further studies addressing the bionomics, ecology and behaviours of the species comprising the Albitarsis Complex.

Complex Network Simulation of Forest Network Spatial Pattern in Pearl River Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Y.

2017-09-01

Forest network-construction uses for the method and model with the scale-free features of complex network theory based on random graph theory and dynamic network nodes which show a power-law distribution phenomenon. The model is suitable for ecological disturbance by larger ecological landscape Pearl River Delta consistent recovery. Remote sensing and GIS spatial data are available through the latest forest patches. A standard scale-free network node distribution model calculates the area of forest network's power-law distribution parameter value size; The recent existing forest polygons which are defined as nodes can compute the network nodes decaying index value of the network's degree distribution. The parameters of forest network are picked up then make a spatial transition to GIS real world models. Hence the connection is automatically generated by minimizing the ecological corridor by the least cost rule between the near nodes. Based on scale-free network node distribution requirements, select the number compared with less, a huge point of aggregation as a future forest planning network's main node, and put them with the existing node sequence comparison. By this theory, the forest ecological projects in the past avoid being fragmented, scattered disorderly phenomena. The previous regular forest networks can be reduced the required forest planting costs by this method. For ecological restoration of tropical and subtropical in south China areas, it will provide an effective method for the forest entering city project guidance and demonstration with other ecological networks (water, climate network, etc.) for networking a standard and base datum.

The Legacy of Biosphere 2 for Biospherics and Closed Ecological System Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, J.; Alling, A.; Nelson, M.

The unprecedented challenges of creating Biosphere 2, the world's first laboratory for biospherics, the study of global ecology and long-term closed ecological system dynamics led to breakthrough developments in many fields, and a deeper understanding of the opportunities and difficulties of material closure. This paper will review these accomplishments and challenges, citing some of the key research accomplishments and publications which have resulted from the experiments in Biosphere 2. Engineering accomplishments included development of a technique for variable volume to deal with pressure differences between the facility and outside environment, developing methods of leak detection and sealing, and achieving new standards of closure, with an annual atmospheric leakrate of less than 10%, or less than 300 ppm per day. This degree of closure permitted detailed tracking of carbon dioxide, oxygen, and trace gases such as nitrous oxide and ethylene over the seasonal variability of two years. Full closure also necessitated developing new approaches and technologies for complete air, water, and wastewater recycle and reuse within the facility. The development of a soil-based highly productive agricultural system was a first in closed ecological systems, and much was learned about managing a wide variety of crops using non-chemical means of pest and disease control. Closed ecological systems have different temporal b ogeochemical cycling and ranges ofi atmospheric components because of their smaller reservoirs of air, water and soil, and higher concentration of biomass, and Biosphere 2 provided detailed examination and modeling of these accelerated cycles over a period of closure which measured in years. Medical research inside Biosphere 2 included the effects on humans of lowered oxygen: the discovery that human productivity can be maintained down to 15% oxygen could lead to major economies on the design of space stations and planetary/lunar settlements. The improved health resulting from the calorie-restricted but nutrient dense Biosphere 2 diet was the first such scientifically-controlled experiment with humans. The success of Biosphere in creating a diversity of terrestrial and marine environments, from rainforest to coral reef, allowed detailed studies with comprehensive measurements such that the dynamics of these complex biomic systems can be better understood. The coral reef ecosystem, the largest artificial reef ever built, catalyzed methods of study now being applied to planetary coral reef systems. Restoration ecology can learn much from the creation and dynamics of adaptation of the biomes in Biosphere 2. The international interest that Biosphere 2 generated has given new impetus to the public recognition of the sciences of biospheres, biospherics, biomes and closed ecological life systems. The facility is still being used as an educational facility by Columbia University as an introduction to the study of the biosphere and complex system ecology. The many lessons learned from Biosphere 2, from its successes, surprises and challenges, is being used by its key team of creators as the foundations for their design of a laboratory-sized closed ecological system and Mars on Earth prototype life support system for Mars exploration and can be an important foundation for future advances in biospherics and closed ecological system research.

Positive and Negative Feedbacks and Free-Scale Pattern Distribution in Rural-Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Alados, Concepción L.; Errea, Paz; Gartzia, Maite; Saiz, Hugo; Escós, Juan

2014-01-01

Depopulation of rural areas is a widespread phenomenon that has occurred in most industrialized countries, and has contributed significantly to a reduction in the productivity of agro-ecological resources. In this study, we identified the main trends in the dynamics of rural populations in the Central Pyrenees in the 20th C and early 21st C, and used density independent and density dependent models and identified the main factors that have influenced the dynamics. In addition, we investigated the change in the power law distribution of population size in those periods. Populations exhibited density-dependent positive feedback between 1960 and 2010, and a long-term positive correlation between agricultural activity and population size, which has resulted in a free-scale population distribution that has been disrupted by the collapse of the traditional agricultural society and by emigration to the industrialized cities. We concluded that complex socio-ecological systems that have strong feedback mechanisms can contribute to disruptive population collapses, which can be identified by changes in the pattern of population distribution. PMID:25474704

Collapse of an ecological network in Ancient Egypt

PubMed Central

Yeakel, Justin D.; Pires, Mathias M.; Rudolf, Lars; Koch, Paul L.; Guimarães, Paulo R.; Gross, Thilo

2014-01-01

The dynamics of ecosystem collapse are fundamental to determining how and why biological communities change through time, as well as the potential effects of extinctions on ecosystems. Here, we integrate depictions of mammals from Egyptian antiquity with direct lines of paleontological and archeological evidence to infer local extinctions and community dynamics over a 6,000-y span. The unprecedented temporal resolution of this dataset enables examination of how the tandem effects of human population growth and climate change can disrupt mammalian communities. We show that the extinctions of mammals in Egypt were nonrandom and that destabilizing changes in community composition coincided with abrupt aridification events and the attendant collapses of some complex societies. We also show that the roles of species in a community can change over time and that persistence is predicted by measures of species sensitivity, a function of local dynamic stability. To our knowledge, our study is the first high-resolution analysis of the ecological impacts of environmental change on predator–prey networks over millennial timescales and sheds light on the historical events that have shaped modern animal communities. PMID:25201967

Forecasting transitions in systems with high-dimensional stochastic complex dynamics: a linear stability analysis of the tangled nature model.

PubMed

Cairoli, Andrea; Piovani, Duccio; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

2014-12-31

We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high-dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the tangled nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasistable configurations of the full stochastic dynamics are taken as input for a stability analysis by means of the deterministic mean-field equations. Numerical analysis of the high-dimensional stability matrix allows us to identify unstable directions associated with eigenvalues with a positive real part. The overlap of the instantaneous configuration vector of the full stochastic system with the eigenvectors of the unstable directions of the deterministic mean-field approximation is found to be a good early warning of the transitions occurring intermittently.

Oak savanna restoration in central Iowa: Assessing indicators of forest health for ecological monitoring (PROJECT NC-F-04-02)

Treesearch

Heidi Asbjornsen; Lars Brudvig

2013-01-01

Savanna ecosystems were once a dominant feature of the Midwestern Corn Belt Plains ecoregion, occurring within the dynamic boundary between prairies to the west and forests to the east, and maintained in the landscape by complex interactions between fire, climate, topography, and human activities (Anderson 1998). Characterized by their continuous understory layer and...

Chapter 2: Dynamic vegetation modeling of forest, woodland, shrubland, and grassland vegetation communities in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest Regions of the United States

Treesearch

Theresa K. Burcsu; Joshua S. Halofsky; Simon A. Bisrat; Treg A. Christopher; Megan K. Creutzburg; Emilie B. Henderson; Miles A. Hemstrom; F. Jack Triepke; Melissa Whitman

2014-01-01

Land management planning at broad scales requires integrative techniques to understand and synthesize the effects of different land management activities and address socioeconomic and conservation concerns. The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project was developed to support the vital but complex task of broadscale integration of information to assess ecological...

Ant-Plant Interaction in a Tropical Savanna: May the Network Structure Vary over Time and Influence on the Outcomes of Associations?

PubMed Central

Lange, Denise; Del-Claro, Kleber

2014-01-01

Plant-animal interactions occur in a community context of dynamic and complex ecological interactive networks. The understanding of who interacts with whom is a basic information, but the outcomes of interactions among associates are fundamental to draw valid conclusions about the functional structure of the network. Ecological networks studies in general gave little importance to know the true outcomes of interactions and how they may change over time. We evaluate the dynamic of an interaction network between ants and plants with extrafloral nectaries, by verifying the temporal variation in structure and outcomes of mutualism for the plant community (leaf herbivory). To reach this goal, we used two tools: bipartite network analysis and experimental manipulation. The networks exhibited the same general pattern as other mutualistic networks: nestedness, asymmetry and low specialization and this pattern was maintained over time, but with internal changes (species degree, connectance and ant abundance). These changes influenced the protection effectiveness of plants by ants, which varied over time. Our study shows that interaction networks between ants and plants are dynamic over time, and that these alterations affect the outcomes of mutualisms. In addition, our study proposes that the set of single systems that shape ecological networks can be manipulated for a greater understanding of the entire system. PMID:25141007

Application of multivariate statistical techniques in microbial ecology

PubMed Central

Paliy, O.; Shankar, V.

2016-01-01

Recent advances in high-throughput methods of molecular analyses have led to an explosion of studies generating large scale ecological datasets. Especially noticeable effect has been attained in the field of microbial ecology, where new experimental approaches provided in-depth assessments of the composition, functions, and dynamic changes of complex microbial communities. Because even a single high-throughput experiment produces large amounts of data, powerful statistical techniques of multivariate analysis are well suited to analyze and interpret these datasets. Many different multivariate techniques are available, and often it is not clear which method should be applied to a particular dataset. In this review we describe and compare the most widely used multivariate statistical techniques including exploratory, interpretive, and discriminatory procedures. We consider several important limitations and assumptions of these methods, and we present examples of how these approaches have been utilized in recent studies to provide insight into the ecology of the microbial world. Finally, we offer suggestions for the selection of appropriate methods based on the research question and dataset structure. PMID:26786791

Timing anthropogenic stressors to mitigate their impact on marine ecosystem resilience.

PubMed

Wu, Paul Pao-Yen; Mengersen, Kerrie; McMahon, Kathryn; Kendrick, Gary A; Chartrand, Kathryn; York, Paul H; Rasheed, Michael A; Caley, M Julian

2017-11-02

Better mitigation of anthropogenic stressors on marine ecosystems is urgently needed to address increasing biodiversity losses worldwide. We explore opportunities for stressor mitigation using whole-of-systems modelling of ecological resilience, accounting for complex interactions between stressors, their timing and duration, background environmental conditions and biological processes. We then search for ecological windows, times when stressors minimally impact ecological resilience, defined here as risk, recovery and resistance. We show for 28 globally distributed seagrass meadows that stressor scheduling that exploits ecological windows for dredging campaigns can achieve up to a fourfold reduction in recovery time and 35% reduction in extinction risk. Although the timing and length of windows vary among sites to some degree, global trends indicate favourable windows in autumn and winter. Our results demonstrate that resilience is dynamic with respect to space, time and stressors, varying most strongly with: (i) the life history of the seagrass genus and (ii) the duration and timing of the impacting stress.

Interactions of social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador.

PubMed

Walsh, Stephen J; Mena, Carlos F

2016-12-20

Galapagos is often cited as an example of the conflicts that are emerging between resource conservation and economic development in island ecosystems, as the pressures associated with tourism threaten nature, including the iconic and emblematic species, unique terrestrial landscapes, and special marine environments. In this paper, two projects are described that rely upon dynamic systems models and agent-based models to examine human-environment interactions. We use a theoretical context rooted in complexity theory to guide the development of our models that are linked to social-ecological dynamics. The goal of this paper is to describe key elements, relationships, and processes to inform and enhance our understanding of human-environment interactions in the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador. By formalizing our knowledge of how systems operate and the manner in which key elements are linked in coupled human-natural systems, we specify rules, relationships, and rates of exchange between social and ecological features derived through statistical functions and/or functions specified in theory or practice. The processes described in our models also have practical applications in that they emphasize how political policies generate different human responses and model outcomes, many detrimental to the social-ecological sustainability of the Galapagos Islands.

Evolution in action: climate change, biodiversity dynamics and emerging infectious disease

PubMed Central

Hoberg, Eric P.; Brooks, Daniel R.

2015-01-01

Climatological variation and ecological perturbation have been pervasive drivers of faunal assembly, structure and diversification for parasites and pathogens through recurrent events of geographical and host colonization at varying spatial and temporal scales of Earth history. Episodic shifts in climate and environmental settings, in conjunction with ecological mechanisms and host switching, are often critical determinants of parasite diversification, a view counter to more than a century of coevolutionary thinking about the nature of complex host–parasite assemblages. Parasites are resource specialists with restricted host ranges, yet shifts onto relatively unrelated hosts are common during phylogenetic diversification of parasite lineages and directly observable in real time. The emerging Stockholm Paradigm resolves this paradox: Ecological Fitting (EF)—phenotypic flexibility and phylogenetic conservatism in traits related to resource use, most notably host preference—provides many opportunities for rapid host switching in changing environments, without the evolution of novel host-utilization capabilities. Host shifts via EF fuel the expansion phase of the Oscillation Hypothesis of host range and speciation and, more generally, the generation of novel combinations of interacting species within the Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution. In synergy, an environmental dynamic of Taxon Pulses establishes an episodic context for host and geographical colonization. PMID:25688014

Interactions of social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador

PubMed Central

Walsh, Stephen J.; Mena, Carlos F.

2016-01-01

Galapagos is often cited as an example of the conflicts that are emerging between resource conservation and economic development in island ecosystems, as the pressures associated with tourism threaten nature, including the iconic and emblematic species, unique terrestrial landscapes, and special marine environments. In this paper, two projects are described that rely upon dynamic systems models and agent-based models to examine human–environment interactions. We use a theoretical context rooted in complexity theory to guide the development of our models that are linked to social–ecological dynamics. The goal of this paper is to describe key elements, relationships, and processes to inform and enhance our understanding of human–environment interactions in the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador. By formalizing our knowledge of how systems operate and the manner in which key elements are linked in coupled human–natural systems, we specify rules, relationships, and rates of exchange between social and ecological features derived through statistical functions and/or functions specified in theory or practice. The processes described in our models also have practical applications in that they emphasize how political policies generate different human responses and model outcomes, many detrimental to the social–ecological sustainability of the Galapagos Islands. PMID:27791072

Understanding vaginal microbiome complexity from an ecological perspective

PubMed Central

Hickey, Roxana J.; Zhou, Xia; Pierson, Jacob D.; Ravel, Jacques; Forney, Larry J.

2012-01-01

The various microbiota normally associated with the human body have an important influence on human development, physiology, immunity, and nutrition. This is certainly true for the vagina wherein communities of mutualistic bacteria constitute the first line of defense for the host by excluding invasive, nonindigenous organisms that may cause disease. In recent years much has been learned about the bacterial species composition of these communities and how they differ between individuals of different ages and ethnicities. A deeper understanding of their origins and the interrelationships of constituent species is needed to understand how and why they change over time or in response to changes in the host environment. Moreover, there are few unifying theories to explain the ecological dynamics of vaginal ecosystems as they respond to disturbances caused by menses and human activities such as intercourse, douching, and other habits and practices. This fundamental knowledge is needed to diagnose and assess risk to disease. Here we summarize what is known about the species composition, structure, and function of bacterial communities in the human vagina and the applicability of ecological models of community structure and function to understanding the dynamics of this and other ecosystems that comprise the human microbiome. PMID:22683415

Model-guided fieldwork: practical guidelines for multidisciplinary research on wildlife ecological and epidemiological dynamics

PubMed Central

Restif, Olivier; Hayman, David T S; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Plowright, Raina K; George, Dylan B; Luis, Angela D; Cunningham, Andrew A; Bowen, Richard A; Fooks, Anthony R; O'Shea, Thomas J; Wood, James L N; Webb, Colleen T

2012-01-01

Infectious disease ecology has recently raised its public profile beyond the scientific community due to the major threats that wildlife infections pose to biological conservation, animal welfare, human health and food security. As we start unravelling the full extent of emerging infectious diseases, there is an urgent need to facilitate multidisciplinary research in this area. Even though research in ecology has always had a strong theoretical component, cultural and technical hurdles often hamper direct collaboration between theoreticians and empiricists. Building upon our collective experience of multidisciplinary research and teaching in this area, we propose practical guidelines to help with effective integration among mathematical modelling, fieldwork and laboratory work. Modelling tools can be used at all steps of a field-based research programme, from the formulation of working hypotheses to field study design and data analysis. We illustrate our model-guided fieldwork framework with two case studies we have been conducting on wildlife infectious diseases: plague transmission in prairie dogs and lyssavirus dynamics in American and African bats. These demonstrate that mechanistic models, if properly integrated in research programmes, can provide a framework for holistic approaches to complex biological systems. PMID:22809422

A socio-ecological adaptive approach to contaminated mega-site management: from 'control and correct' to 'coping with change'.

PubMed

Schirmer, Mario; Lyon, Ken; Armstrong, James E; Farrell, Katharine N

2012-01-01

Mega-sites have a notable impact on surrounding ecological systems. At such sites there are substantial risks associated with complex socio-ecological interactions that are hard to characterize, let alone model and predict. While the urge to control and clean-up mega-sites (control and correct) is understandable, rather than setting a goal of cleaning up such sites, we suggest a more realistic response strategy is to address these massive and persistent sources of contamination by acknowledging their position as new features of the socio-ecological landscapes within which they are located. As it seems nearly impossible to clean up such sites, we argue for consideration of a 'coping with change' rather than a 'control and correct' approach. This strategy recognizes that the current management option for a mega-site, in light of its physical complexities and due to changing societal preferences, geochemical transformations, hydrogeology knowledge and remedial technology options may not remain optimal in future, and therefore needs to be continuously adapted, as community, ecology, technology and understanding change over time. This approach creates an opportunity to consider the relationship between a mega-site and its human and ecological environments in a different and more dynamic way. Our proposed approach relies on iterative adaptive management to incorporate mega-site management into the overall socio-ecological systems of the site's context. This approach effectively embeds mega-site management planning in a triple bottom line and environmental sustainability structure, rather than simply using single measures of success, such as contaminant-based guidelines. Recognizing that there is probably no best solution for managing a mega-site, we present a starting point for engaging constructively with this seemingly intractable issue. Therefore, we aim to initiate discussion about a new approach to mega-site management, in which the complexity of the problems posed by mega-sites is reflected upon in its entirety. These complexities are associated with uncertainties and unknowns that have to be addressed, as they have an impact on the strategies being developed and applied. We contend that the best that can be hoped for in mega-site management is an acceptable solution for the current state of affairs, with good flexibility to modify strategies as new site conditions, remediation possibilities, community preferences and management objectives develop over time. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Watershed restoration: planning and implementing small dam removals to maximize ecosystem services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonitto, C.; Riha, S. J.

2016-12-01

River restoration and enhancing watershed connectivity is of growing concern in industrialized nations. The past two decades have seen a number of small dam removals, though many removals remain unstudied and poorly documented. We summarize socio-economic and biophysical lessons learned during the past two decades of accelerated activity regarding small dam removals throughout the United States. We present frameworks for planning and implementing removals developed by interdisciplinary engagement. Toward the goal of achieving thorough dam removal planning, we present outcomes from well-documented small dam removals covering ecological, chemical, and physical change in rivers post-dam removal, including field observation and modeling methodologies. Guiding principles of a dam removal process should include: 1) stakeholder engagement to navigate the complexity of watershed landuse, 2) an impacts assessment to inform the planning process, 3) pre- and post-dam removal observations of ecological, chemical and physical properties, 4) the expectation that there are short- and long-term ecological dynamics with population recovery depending on whether dam impacts were largely related to dispersion or to habitat destruction, 5) an expectation that changes in watershed chemistry are dependent on sediment type, sediment transport and watershed landuse, and 6) rigorous assessment of physical changes resulting from dam removal, understanding that alteration in hydrologic flows, sediment transport, and channel evolution will shape ecological and chemical dynamics, and shape how stakeholders engage with the watershed.

Operationalizing safe operating space for regional social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Hossain, Md Sarwar; Dearing, John A; Eigenbrod, Felix; Johnson, Fiifi Amoako

2017-04-15

This study makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at a regional scale by considering the complex dynamics (e.g. non-linearity, feedbacks, and interactions) within a systems dynamic model (SD). We employ the model to explore eight 'what if' scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawal). The findings show that the social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2°C temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5°C temperature increase was reached. The social-ecological system in Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase the long-term resilience, 2) negotiating for transboundary water resources, and 3) revising global policies (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) that negatively impact at regional scales. This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations, and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system.

PubMed

Kasada, Minoru; Yamamichi, Masato; Yoshida, Takehito

2014-11-11

Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

Theoretical Approaches in Evolutionary Ecology: Environmental Feedback as a Unifying Perspective.

PubMed

Lion, Sébastien

2018-01-01

Evolutionary biology and ecology have a strong theoretical underpinning, and this has fostered a variety of modeling approaches. A major challenge of this theoretical work has been to unravel the tangled feedback loop between ecology and evolution. This has prompted the development of two main classes of models. While quantitative genetics models jointly consider the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of a focal population, a separation of timescales between ecology and evolution is assumed by evolutionary game theory, adaptive dynamics, and inclusive fitness theory. As a result, theoretical evolutionary ecology tends to be divided among different schools of thought, with different toolboxes and motivations. My aim in this synthesis is to highlight the connections between these different approaches and clarify the current state of theory in evolutionary ecology. Central to this approach is to make explicit the dependence on environmental dynamics of the population and evolutionary dynamics, thereby materializing the eco-evolutionary feedback loop. This perspective sheds light on the interplay between environmental feedback and the timescales of ecological and evolutionary processes. I conclude by discussing some potential extensions and challenges to our current theoretical understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Disturbance Regimes Predictably Alter Diversity in an Ecologically Complex Bacterial System

PubMed Central

Scholz, Monika; Hutchison, Alan L.; Dinner, Aaron R.; Gilbert, Jack A.; Coleman, Maureen L.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Diversity is often associated with the functional stability of ecological communities from microbes to macroorganisms. Understanding how diversity responds to environmental perturbations and the consequences of this relationship for ecosystem function are thus central challenges in microbial ecology. Unimodal diversity-disturbance relationships, in which maximum diversity occurs at intermediate levels of disturbance, have been predicted for ecosystems where life history tradeoffs separate organisms along a disturbance gradient. However, empirical support for such peaked relationships in macrosystems is mixed, and few studies have explored these relationships in microbial systems. Here we use complex microbial microcosm communities to systematically determine diversity-disturbance relationships over a range of disturbance regimes. We observed a reproducible switch between community states, which gave rise to transient diversity maxima when community states were forced to mix. Communities showed reduced compositional stability when diversity was highest. To further explore these dynamics, we formulated a simple model that reveals specific regimes under which diversity maxima are stable. Together, our results show how both unimodal and non-unimodal diversity-disturbance relationships can be observed as a system switches between two distinct microbial community states; this process likely occurs across a wide range of spatially and temporally heterogeneous microbial ecosystems. PMID:27999158

A model of ecological and evolutionary consequences of color polymorphism.

PubMed

Forsman, Anders; Ahnesjö, Jonas; Caesar, Sofia; Karlsson, Magnus

2008-01-01

We summarize direct and indirect effects on fitness components of animal color pattern and present a synthesis of theories concerning the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of chromatic multiple niche polymorphisms. Previous endeavors have aimed primarily at identifying conditions that promote the evolution and maintenance of polymorphisms. We consider in a conceptual model also the reciprocal influence of color polymorphism on population processes and propose that polymorphism entails selective advantages that may promote the ecological success of polymorphic species. The model begins with an evolutionary branching event from mono- to polymorphic condition that, under the influence of correlational selection, is predicted to promote the evolution of physical integration of coloration and other traits (cf. multi-trait coevolution and complex phenotypes). We propose that the coexistence within a population of alternative ecomorphs with coadapted gene complexes promotes utilization of diverse environmental resources, population stability and persistence, colonization success, and range expansions, and enhances the evolutionary potential and speciation. Conversely, we predict polymorphic populations to be less vulnerable to environmental change and at lower risk of range contractions and extinctions compared with monomorphic populations. We offer brief suggestions as to how these falsifiable predictions may be tested.

Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F.

2012-01-01

Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels—especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour—is essential for making the science predictive. ‘Pattern-oriented modelling’ (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions. PMID:22144392

Bacterial-fungal interactions: ecology, mechanisms and challenges.

PubMed

Deveau, Aurélie; Bonito, Gregory; Uehling, Jessie; Paoletti, Mathieu; Becker, Matthias; Bindschedler, Saskia; Hacquard, Stéphane; Hervé, Vincent; Labbé, Jessy; Lastovetsky, Olga A; Mieszkin, Sophie; Millet, Larry J; Vajna, Balázs; Junier, Pilar; Bonfante, Paola; Krom, Bastiaan P; Olsson, Stefan; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Wick, Lukas Y

2018-05-01

Fungi and bacteria are found living together in a wide variety of environments. Their interactions are significant drivers of many ecosystem functions and are important for the health of plants and animals. A large number of fungal and bacterial families engage in complex interactions that lead to critical behavioural shifts of the microorganisms ranging from mutualism to antagonism. The importance of bacterial-fungal interactions (BFI) in environmental science, medicine and biotechnology has led to the emergence of a dynamic and multidisciplinary research field that combines highly diverse approaches including molecular biology, genomics, geochemistry, chemical and microbial ecology, biophysics and ecological modelling. In this review, we discuss recent advances that underscore the roles of BFI across relevant habitats and ecosystems. A particular focus is placed on the understanding of BFI within complex microbial communities and in regard of the metaorganism concept. We also discuss recent discoveries that clarify the (molecular) mechanisms involved in bacterial-fungal relationships, and the contribution of new technologies to decipher generic principles of BFI in terms of physical associations and molecular dialogues. Finally, we discuss future directions for research in order to stimulate synergy within the BFI research area and to resolve outstanding questions.

Experiential Learning as a Constraint-Led Process: An Ecological Dynamics Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brymer, Eric; Davids, Keith

2014-01-01

In this paper we present key ideas for an ecological dynamics approach to learning that reveal the importance of learner-environment interactions to frame outdoor experiential learning. We propose that ecological dynamics provides a useful framework for understanding the interacting constraints of the learning process and for designing learning…

Ecological and economic analysis of poaching of the greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal.

PubMed

Poudyal, Mahesh; Rothley, Kristina; Knowler, Duncan

2009-10-01

Nepal's greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) faces serious threats from poaching. Poaching of these rhinos is a complex problem, influenced by such diverse factors as the price of rhino horn on the international market, local socioeconomic factors, and the population dynamics of the species. Few studies have attempted to address this complexity. In this study, we model the poaching and population dynamics of the one-horned rhinoceros within an integrated framework of ecological, socioeconomic, political, and legal dimensions. The poaching model for rhinos in Royal Chitwan National Park (RCNP) in Nepal is combined with the population model for the species within a simulation framework and explored under various alternative policy scenarios with differing external socioeconomic and political conditions as well as internal policy response. We predict that, under the current (2003-2005) rhino conservation strategy, poaching would continue to be a major threat to the rhino population in RCNP. Furthermore, the internal policy response must begin to consider external factors such as socioeconomic conditions within the park buffer zone to be more effective in the long run. Finally, we find that, for long-run control, antipoaching policies should be directed at increasing the opportunity costs of poaching by creating better alternative economic opportunities, and at antipoaching enforcement.

Dynamics and ecological risk assessment of chromophoric dissolved organic matter in the Yinma River Watershed: Rivers, reservoirs, and urban waters.

PubMed

Li, Sijia; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Feng; Ma, Qiyun; Mu, Guangyi

2017-10-01

The extensive use of a geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing in ecological risk assessment from a spatiotemporal perspective complements ecological environment management. Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), which is a complex mixture of organic matter that can be estimated via remote sensing, carries and produces carcinogenic disinfection by-products and organic pollutants in various aquatic environments. This paper reports the first ecological risk assessment, which was conducted in 2016, of CDOM in the Yinma River watershed including riverine waters, reservoir waters, and urban waters. Referring to the risk formation theory of natural disaster, the entropy evaluation method and DPSIR (driving force-pressure-state-impact-response) framework were coupled to establish a hazard and vulnerability index with multisource data, i.e., meteorological, remote sensing, experimental, and socioeconomic data, of this watershed. This ecological vulnerability assessment indicator system contains 23 indicators with respect to ecological sensitivity, ecological pressure, and self-resilience. The characteristics of CDOM absorption parameters from different waters showed higher aromatic content and molecular weights in May because of increased terrestrial inputs. The assessment results indicated that the overall ecosystem risk in the study area was focused in the extremely, heavily, and moderately vulnerable regions. The ecological risk assessment results objectively reflect the regional ecological environment and demonstrate the potential of ecological risk assessment of pollutants over traditional chemical measurements. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Efficient and resilient governance of social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Erickson, Adam

2015-09-01

New institutions are critically needed to improve the resilience of social-ecological systems globally. Watershed management offers an important model due to its ability to govern mixed-ownership landscapes through common property regimes, translating national goals into local action. Here, I assess the efficacy of state watershed management institutions in the Pacific Northwest, based on their ability to support local watershed groups. I use document analysis to describe and compare state institutions in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and California. Results indicate that state institutional efficiency and resilience are the key factors determining watershed group activity and stability. The primary drivers of institutional efficiency and resilience were institutional unification, robust funding portfolios, low agency conflict, and strong support for economic multiplier effects, creative partnerships, and scholarly research. My findings elucidate the critical role of institutional efficiency and resilience in governing dynamic and complex social-ecological systems, enabling the flexibility to address emergent transformations.

Ecological thresholds: The key to successful enviromental management or an important concept with no practical application?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Groffman, P.M.; Baron, Jill S.; Blett, T.; Gold, A.J.; Goodman, I.; Gunderson, L.H.; Levinson, B.M.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Paerl, H.W.; Peterson, G.D.; Poff, N.L.; Rejeski, D.W.; Reynolds, J.F.; Turner, M.G.; Weathers, K.C.; Wiens, J.

2006-01-01

An ecological threshold is the point at which there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem quality, property or phenomenon, or where small changes in an environmental driver produce large responses in the ecosystem. Analysis of thresholds is complicated by nonlinear dynamics and by multiple factor controls that operate at diverse spatial and temporal scales. These complexities have challenged the use and utility of threshold concepts in environmental management despite great concern about preventing dramatic state changes in valued ecosystems, the need for determining critical pollutant loads and the ubiquity of other threshold-based environmental problems. In this paper we define the scope of the thresholds concept in ecological science and discuss methods for identifying and investigating thresholds using a variety of examples from terrestrial and aquatic environments, at ecosystem, landscape and regional scales. We end with a discussion of key research needs in this area.

Groundwater–surface water mixing shifts ecological assembly processes and stimulates organic carbon turnover

PubMed Central

Stegen, James C.; Fredrickson, James K.; Wilkins, Michael J.; Konopka, Allan E.; Nelson, William C.; Arntzen, Evan V.; Chrisler, William B.; Chu, Rosalie K.; Danczak, Robert E.; Fansler, Sarah J.; Kennedy, David W.; Resch, Charles T.; Tfaily, Malak

2016-01-01

Environmental transitions often result in resource mixtures that overcome limitations to microbial metabolism, resulting in biogeochemical hotspots and moments. Riverine systems, where groundwater mixes with surface water (the hyporheic zone), are spatially complex and temporally dynamic, making development of predictive models challenging. Spatial and temporal variations in hyporheic zone microbial communities are a key, but understudied, component of riverine biogeochemical function. Here, to investigate the coupling among groundwater–surface water mixing, microbial communities and biogeochemistry, we apply ecological theory, aqueous biogeochemistry, DNA sequencing and ultra-high-resolution organic carbon profiling to field samples collected across times and locations representing a broad range of mixing conditions. Our results indicate that groundwater–surface water mixing in the hyporheic zone stimulates heterotrophic respiration, alters organic carbon composition, causes ecological processes to shift from stochastic to deterministic and is associated with elevated abundances of microbial taxa that may degrade a broad suite of organic compounds. PMID:27052662

Groundwater-surface water mixing shifts ecological assembly processes and stimulates organic carbon turnover.

PubMed

Stegen, James C; Fredrickson, James K; Wilkins, Michael J; Konopka, Allan E; Nelson, William C; Arntzen, Evan V; Chrisler, William B; Chu, Rosalie K; Danczak, Robert E; Fansler, Sarah J; Kennedy, David W; Resch, Charles T; Tfaily, Malak

2016-04-07

Environmental transitions often result in resource mixtures that overcome limitations to microbial metabolism, resulting in biogeochemical hotspots and moments. Riverine systems, where groundwater mixes with surface water (the hyporheic zone), are spatially complex and temporally dynamic, making development of predictive models challenging. Spatial and temporal variations in hyporheic zone microbial communities are a key, but understudied, component of riverine biogeochemical function. Here, to investigate the coupling among groundwater-surface water mixing, microbial communities and biogeochemistry, we apply ecological theory, aqueous biogeochemistry, DNA sequencing and ultra-high-resolution organic carbon profiling to field samples collected across times and locations representing a broad range of mixing conditions. Our results indicate that groundwater-surface water mixing in the hyporheic zone stimulates heterotrophic respiration, alters organic carbon composition, causes ecological processes to shift from stochastic to deterministic and is associated with elevated abundances of microbial taxa that may degrade a broad suite of organic compounds.

Interactions of microplastic debris throughout the marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Galloway, Tamara S; Cole, Matthew; Lewis, Ceri

2017-04-20

Marine microscopic plastic (microplastic) debris is a modern societal issue, illustrating the challenge of balancing the convenience of plastic in daily life with the prospect of causing ecological harm by careless disposal. Here we develop the concept of microplastic as a complex, dynamic mixture of polymers and additives, to which organic material and contaminants can successively bind to form an 'ecocorona', increasing the density and surface charge of particles and changing their bioavailability and toxicity. Chronic exposure to microplastic is rarely lethal, but can adversely affect individual animals, reducing feeding and depleting energy stores, with knock-on effects for fecundity and growth. We explore the extent to which ecological processes could be impacted, including altered behaviours, bioturbation and impacts on carbon flux to the deep ocean. We discuss how microplastic compares with other anthropogenic pollutants in terms of ecological risk, and consider the role of science and society in tackling this global issue in the future.

Population modeling and its role in toxicological studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Pendleton, Grey W.; Hoffman, David J.; Rattner, Barnett A.; Burton, G. Allen; Cairns, John

1995-01-01

A model could be defined as any abstraction from reality that is used to provide some insight into the real system. In this discussion, we will use a more specific definition that a model is a set of rules or assumptions, expressed as mathematical equations, that describe how animals survive and reproduce, including the external factors that affect these characteristics. A model simplifies a system, retaining essential components while eliminating parts that are not of interest. ecology has a rich history of using models to gain insight into populations, often borrowing both model structures and analysis methods from demographers and engineers. Much of the development of the models has been a consequence of mathematicians and physicists seeing simple analogies between their models and patterns in natural systems. Consequently, one major application of ecological modeling has been to emphasize the analysis of dynamics of often complex models to provide insight into theoretical aspects of ecology.1

Interdisciplinary Pathways for Urban Metabolism Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, J. P.

2011-12-01

With its rapid rise as a metaphor to express coupled natural-human systems in cities, the concept of urban metabolism is evolving into a series of relatively distinct research frameworks amongst various disciplines, with varying definitions, theories, models, and emphases. In industrial ecology, housed primarily within the disciplinary domain of engineering, urban metabolism research has focused on quantifying material and energy flows into, within, and out of cities, using methodologies such as material flow analysis and life cycle assessment. In the field of urban ecology, which is strongly influenced by ecology and urban planning, research focus has been placed on understanding and modeling the complex patterns and processes of human-ecological systems within urban areas. Finally, in political ecology, closely aligned with human geography and anthropology, scholars theorize about the interwoven knots of social and natural processes, material flows, and spatial structures that form the urban metabolism. This paper offers three potential interdisciplinary urban metabolism research tracks that might integrate elements of these three "ecologies," thereby bridging engineering and the social and physical sciences. First, it presents the idea of infrastructure ecology, which explores the complex, emergent interdependencies between gray (water and wastewater, transportation, etc) and green (e.g. parks, greenways) infrastructure systems, as nested within a broader socio-economic context. For cities to be sustainable and resilient over time-space, the theory follows, these is a need to understand and redesign these infrastructure linkages. Second, there is the concept of an urban-scale carbon metabolism model which integrates consumption-based material flow analysis (including goods, water, and materials), with the carbon sink and source dynamics of the built environment (e.g. buildings, etc) and urban ecosystems. Finally, there is the political ecology of the material urban metabolism, which adds spatial differentiation to materials flows and form, as well as a focus on equity, access, and governance dimensions of the urban metabolism.

How is shrimp aquaculture transforming coastal livelihoods and lagoons in Estero Real, Nicaragua? The need to integrate social-ecological research and ecosystem-based approaches.

PubMed

Benessaiah, Karina; Sengupta, Raja

2014-08-01

Ecosystem-based approaches to aquaculture integrate environmental concerns into planning. Social-ecological systems research can improve this approach by explicitly relating ecological and social dynamics of change at multiple scales. Doing so requires not only addressing direct effects of aquaculture but also considering indirect factors such as changes in livelihood strategies, governance dynamics, and power relations. We selected the community of Puerto Morazán, Nicaragua as a case study to demonstrate how the introduction of small-scale aquaculture radically transformed another key livelihood activity, lagoon shrimp fishing, and the effects that these changes have had on lagoons and the people that depend on them. We find that shrimp aquaculture played a key role in the collapse, in the 1990s, of an existing lagoon common-property management. Shrimp aquaculture-related capital enabled the adoption of a new fishing technique that not only degraded lagoons but also led to their gradual privatization. The existence of social ties between small-scale shrimp farmers and other community members mitigated the impacts of privatization, illustrating the importance of social capital. Since 2008, community members are seeking to communally manage the lagoons once again, in response to degraded environmental conditions and a consolidation of the shrimp industry at the expense of smaller actors. This research shows that shrimp aquaculture intersects with a complex set of drivers, affecting not only how ecosystems are managed but also how they are perceived and valued. Understanding these social-ecological dynamics is essential to implement realistic policies and management of mangrove ecosystems and address the needs of resource-dependent people.

Linking Stoichiometric Homeostasis of Microorganisms with Soil Phosphorus Dynamics in Wetlands Subjected to Microcosm Warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Hang; Li, HongYi; Zhang, ZhiJian; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; He, Qiang; Xu, XinHua; Yue, ChunLei; Jiang, DaQian

2014-01-01

Soil biogeochemical processes and the ecological stability of wetland ecosystems under global warming scenarios have gained increasing attention worldwide. Changes in the capacity of microorganisms to maintain stoichiometric homeostasis, or relatively stable internal concentrations of elements, may serve as an indicator of alterations to soil biogeochemical processes and their associated ecological feedbacks. In this study, an outdoor computerized microcosm was set up to simulate a warmed (+5°C) climate scenario, using novel, minute-scale temperature manipulation technology. The principle of stoichiometric homeostasis was adopted to illustrate phosphorus (P) biogeochemical cycling coupled with carbon (C) dynamics within the soil-microorganism complex. We hypothesized that enhancing the flux of P from soil to water under warming scenarios is tightly coupled with a decrease in homeostatic regulation ability in wetland ecosystems. Results indicate that experimental warming impaired the ability of stoichiometric homeostasis (H) to regulate biogeochemical processes, enhancing the ecological role of wetland soil as an ecological source for both P and C. The potential P flux from soil to water ranged from 0.11 to 34.51 mg m−2 d−1 in the control and 0.07 to 61.26 mg m−2 d−1 in the warmed treatment. The synergistic function of C-P acquisition is an important mechanism underlying C∶P stoichiometric balance for soil microorganisms under warming. For both treatment groups, strongly significant (p<0.001) relationships fitting a negative allometric power model with a fractional exponent were found between n-HC∶P (the specialized homeostatic regulation ability as a ratio of soil highly labile organic carbon to dissolved reactive phosphorus in porewater) and potential P flux. Although many factors may affect soil P dynamics, the n-HC∶P term fundamentally reflects the stoichiometric balance or interactions between the energy landscape (i.e., C) and flow of resources (e.g., N and P), and can be a useful ecological tool for assessing potential P flux in ecosystems. PMID:24475045

Ecological Dynamics as a Theoretical Framework for Development of Sustainable Behaviours towards the Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brymer, Eric; Davids, Keith

2013-01-01

This paper proposes how the theoretical framework of ecological dynamics can provide an influential model of the learner and the learning process to pre-empt effective behaviour changes. Here we argue that ecological dynamics supports a well-established model of the learner ideally suited to the environmental education context because of its…

Biodiversity and dynamics of meat fermentations: the contribution of molecular methods for a better comprehension of a complex ecosystem.

PubMed

Cocolin, Luca; Dolci, Paola; Rantsiou, Kalliopi

2011-11-01

The ecology of fermented sausages is complex and includes different species and strains of bacteria, yeasts and molds. The developments in the field of molecular biology, allowed for new methods to become available, which could be applied to better understand dynamics and diversity of the microorganisms involved in the production of sausages. Methods, such as denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), employed as a culture-independent approach, allow to define the microbial dynamics during the fermentation and ripening. Such approach has highlighted that two main species of lactic acid bacteria, namely Lactobacillus sakei and Lb. curvatus, are involved in the transformation process and that they are accompanied by Staphylococcus xylosus, as representative of the coagulase-negative cocci. These findings were repeatedly confirmed in different regions of the world, mainly in the Mediterranean countries where dry fermented sausages have a long tradition and history. The application of molecular methods for the identification and characterization of isolated strains from fermentations highlighted a high degree of diversity within the species mentioned above, underlining the need to better follow strain dynamics during the transformation process. While there is an important number of papers dealing with bacterial ecology by using molecular methods, studies on mycobiota of fermented sausages are just a few. This review reports on how the application of molecular methods made possible a better comprehension of the sausage fermentations, opening up new fields of research that in the near future will allow to unravel the connection between sensory properties and co-presence of multiple strains of the same species. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of organic-mineral complexes on micro-elements dynamic in ecological systems of vegetables cultivation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulgariu, D.; Buzgar, N.; Bulgariu, L.; Rusu, C.; Munteanu, N.

2009-04-01

In ecological systems of vegetable cultivation (hortic antrosols; soils from greenhouses), exists an ensemble of equilibriums between organic-mineral combinations, very sensitive even to relatively small variations of physical-chemical conditions in soils. As such, these can manifest a strong influence on organic matter, clay minerals and microelements from soil, which in turn impacts on the productivity of these soils and the quality of obtained products (vegetables, fruit). Although many studies consider these organic-mineral combinations are meta-stable combinations, our work has shown that the stability of organic-mineral combinations in hortic antrosols (especially for clay-humic, clay-ironhumic combinations and chelates) is higher. We believe that this is due to the higher flexibility of these combinations' structures with the variation of chemical-mineralogical composition and physical-chemical conditions in soil. This paper highlights the results of our research on the differentiation possibility of organic-mineral complexes, depending on their structure and composition (using Raman and FT-IR spectrometry) and the influences manifested by the organic-mineral complexes on the micro-elements dynamic from ecological systems of fresh vegetable cultivation. The non-destructive separation of organic-mineral compounds from soil samples was carried out through iso-dynamic magnetic separation and extraction in aqueous two-phase systems (PEG-based). The Raman and FT-IR spectrometry analyses on raw soil samples, extracts obtained from soil samples and separated mineral fractions have been supplemented by the results obtained through chemical, microscopic and thermal analyses and by UV-VIS absorption spectrometry. Ours experimental studies have been done on representative samples of hortic antrosol from Copou glasshouse (Iasi, Romania), and was studied five micro-elements: Zn, Ni, Cu, Mn, Cr and P. The total contents of the five microelements and their fractions differential bonded on mineral and organic components of hortic antrosols, have been determined by atomic absorption spectrometry after combined sequential extraction in solid phase extraction - aqueous biphasic (PEG based) systems. The specific mechanisms of the microelements interaction with organic components have been estimated on the basis of studies realized on fractions obtained after each extraction step by Raman and FTIR spectrometry. These data have been correlated with those obtained by chemical analysis and UV-VIS spectrometry. In conditions of hortic antrosol, from total contents of Zn, Ni, Cu, Mn and Cr, more than 65 % are binding on organic components. A specific phenomenon of hortic antrosols is the microelements complexation exclusively with the functional groups of organic macromolecules. This phenomenon has two important consequences: (i) the strong fixation of microelements (these can be extracted only in very extremely conditions, which implied the organic part destroying) and (ii) their presence determined major modifications in the structure, conformation and stability of organic macromolecules. Under these conditions, the type and structure of organic-mineral compounds represent determinant factors for the dynamic of micro-elements and organic compounds in ecological systems of vegetables cultivation. Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support from Romanian Ministry of Education and Research (Project PNCDI 2-D5 no. 51045/07 an Project PNCDI 2-D5 no. 52141 / 08).

Estimation and Application of Ecological Memory Functions in Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Dawson, A.

2017-12-01

A common goal in quantitative ecology is the estimation or prediction of ecological processes as a function of explanatory variables (or covariates). Frequently, the ecological process of interest and associated covariates vary in time, space, or both. Theory indicates many ecological processes exhibit memory to local, past conditions. Despite such theoretical understanding, few methods exist to integrate observations from the recent past or within a local neighborhood as drivers of these processes. We build upon recent methodological advances in ecology and spatial statistics to develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework to estimate so-called ecological memory functions; that is, weight-generating functions that specify the relative importance of local, past covariate observations to ecological processes. Memory functions are estimated using a set of basis functions in time and/or space, allowing for flexible ecological memory based on a reduced set of parameters. Ecological memory functions are entirely data driven under the Bayesian hierarchical framework—no a priori assumptions are made regarding functional forms. Memory function uncertainty follows directly from posterior distributions for model parameters allowing for tractable propagation of error to predictions of ecological processes. We apply the model framework to simulated spatio-temporal datasets generated using memory functions of varying complexity. The framework is also applied to estimate the ecological memory of annual boreal forest growth to local, past water availability. Consistent with ecological understanding of boreal forest growth dynamics, memory to past water availability peaks in the year previous to growth and slowly decays to zero in five to eight years. The Bayesian hierarchical framework has applicability to a broad range of ecosystems and processes allowing for increased understanding of ecosystem responses to local and past conditions and improved prediction of ecological processes.

Long-term boreal forest dynamics and disturbances: a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stivrins, Normunds; Aakala, Tuomas; Kuuluvainen, Timo; Pasanen, Leena; Ilvonen, Liisa; Holmström, Lasse; Seppä, Heikki

2017-04-01

The boreal forest provides a variety of ecosystem services that are threatened under the ongoing climate warming. Along with the climate, there are several factors (fire, human-impact, pathogens), which influence boreal forest dynamics. Combination of short and long-term studies allowing complex assessment of forest response to natural abiotic and biotic stress factors is necessary for sustainable management of the boreal forest now and in the future. The ongoing EBOR (Ecological history and long-term dynamics of the boreal forest ecosystem) project integrates forest ecological and palaeoecological approaches to study boreal forest dynamics and disturbances. Using pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, micro- and macrocharcoal, tree rings and fire scars, we analysed forest dynamics at stand-scale by sampling small forest hollows (small paludified depressions) and the surrounding forest stands in Finland and western Russia. Using charcoal data, we estimated a fire return interval of 320 years for the Russian sites, and, based on the fungi Neurospora that can grow on charred tree bark after a low-intensity fire, we were able to distinguish low- and high-intensity fire-events. In addition to the influence of fire events and/or fire regime changes, we further assessed potential relationships between tree species and herbivore presence and pathogens. As an example of such a relationship, our preliminary findings indicated a negative relationship between Picea and fungi Lasiosphaeria (caudata), which occurred during times of Picea decline.

System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

PubMed

Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

2013-05-15

Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Biophysical Model for Hawaiian Coral Reefs: Coupling Local Ecology, Larval Transport and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapur, M. R.

2016-02-01

Simulative models of reef ecosystems have been used to evaluate ecological responses to a myriad of disturbance events, including fishing pressure, coral bleaching, invasion by alien species, and nutrient loading. The Coral Reef Scenario Evaluation Tool (CORSET), has been developed and instantiated for both the Meso-American Reef (MAR) and South China Sea (SCS) regions. This model is novel in that it accounts for the many scales at which reef ecosystem processes take place; is comprised of a "bottom-up" structure wherein complex behaviors are not pre-programmed, but emergent and highly portable to new systems. Local-scale dynamics are coupled across regions through larval connectivity matrices, derived sophisticated particle transport simulations that include key elements of larval behavior. By this approach, we are able to directly evaluate some of the potential consequences of larval connectivity patterns across a range of spatial scales and under multiple climate scenarios. This work develops and applies the CORSET (Coral Reef Scenario Evaluation Tool) to the Main Hawaiian Islands under a suite of climate and ecological scenarios. We introduce an adaptation constant into reef-building coral dynamics to simulate observed resiliencies to bleaching events. This presentation will share results from the model's instantiation under two Resource Concentration Pathway climate scenarios, with emphasis upon larval connectivity dynamics, emergent coral tolerance to increasing thermal anomalies, and patterns of spatial fishing closures. Results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, thermal tolerance and herbivore removal will have synergistic effects on reef resilience.

Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, M.

2010-01-01

A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species-and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Prairie wetland complexes as landscape functional units in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Voldseth, Richard A.; Millett, Bruce; Naugle, David E.; Tulbure, Mirela; Carroll, Rosemary W.H.; Tracy, John; Olawsky, Craig

2010-01-01

The wetland complex is the functional ecological unit of the prairie pothole region (PPR) of central North America. Diverse complexes of wetlands contribute high spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity, productivity, and biodiversity to these glaciated prairie landscapes. Climatewarming simulations using the new model WETLANDSCAPE (WLS) project major reductions in water volume, shortening of hydroperiods, and less-dynamic vegetation for prairie wetland complexes. The WLS model portrays the future PPR as a much less resilient ecosystem: The western PPR will be too dry and the eastern PPR will have too few functional wetlands and nesting habitat to support historic levels of waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. Maintaining ecosystem goods and services at current levels in a warmer climate will be a major challenge for the conservation community.

Extended generalized recurrence plot quantification of complex circular patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riedl, Maik; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-03-01

The generalized recurrence plot is a modern tool for quantification of complex spatial patterns. Its application spans the analysis of trabecular bone structures, Turing patterns, turbulent spatial plankton patterns, and fractals. Determinism is a central measure in this framework quantifying the level of regularity of spatial structures. We show by basic examples of fully regular patterns of different symmetries that this measure underestimates the orderliness of circular patterns resulting from rotational symmetries. We overcome this crucial problem by checking additional structural elements of the generalized recurrence plot which is demonstrated with the examples. Furthermore, we show the potential of the extended quantity of determinism applying it to more irregular circular patterns which are generated by the complex Ginzburg-Landau-equation and which can be often observed in real spatially extended dynamical systems. So, we are able to reconstruct the main separations of the system's parameter space analyzing single snapshots of the real part only, in contrast to the use of the original quantity. This ability of the proposed method promises also an improved description of other systems with complicated spatio-temporal dynamics typically occurring in fluid dynamics, climatology, biology, ecology, social sciences, etc.

The politics of biofuels, land and agrarian change: editors' introduction.

PubMed

Borras, Saturnino M

2010-01-01

This introduction frames key questions on biofuels, land and agrarian change within agrarian political economy, political sociology and political ecology. It identifies and explains big questions that provide the starting point for the contributions to this collection. We lay out some of the emerging themes which define the politics of biofuels, land and agrarian change revolving around global (re)configurations; agro-ecological visions; conflicts, resistances and diverse outcomes; state, capital and society relations; mobilising opposition, creating alternatives; and change and continuity. An engaged agrarian political economy combined with global political economy, international relations and social movement theory provides an important framework for analysis and critique of the conditions, dynamics, contradictions, impacts and possibilities of the emerging global biofuels complex. Our hope is that this collection demonstrates the significance of a political economy of biofuels in capturing the complexity of the "biofuels revolution" and at the same time opening up questions about its sustainability in social and environmental terms that provide pathways towards alternatives.

Restoration treatments in urban park forests drive long-term changes in vegetation trajectories.

PubMed

Johnson, Lea R; Handel, Steven N

2016-04-01

Municipalities are turning to ecological restoration of urban forests as a measure to improve air quality, ameliorate urban heat island effects, improve storm water infiltration, and provide other social and ecological benefits. However, community dynamics following urban forest restoration treatments are poorly documented. This study examines the long-term effects of ecological restoration undertaken in New York City, New York, USA, to restore native forest in urban park natural areas invaded by woody non-native plants that are regional problems. In 2009 and 2010, we sampled vegetation in 30 invaded sites in three large public parks that were restored 1988-1993, and 30 sites in three large parks that were similarly invaded but had not been restored. Data from these matched plots reveal that the restoration treatment achieved its central goals. After 15-20 years, invasive species removal followed by native tree planting resulted in persistent structural and compositional shifts, significantly lower invasive species abundance, a more complex forest structure, and greater native tree recruitment. Together, these findings indicate that successional trajectories of vegetation dynamics have diverged between restored forests and invaded forests that were not restored. In addition, the data suggest that future composition of these urban forest patches will be novel assemblages. Restored and untreated sites shared a suite of shade-intolerant, quickly-growing tree species that colonize disturbed sites, indicating that restoration treatments created sites hospitable for germination and growth of species adapted to high light conditions and disturbed soils. These findings yield an urban perspective on the use of succession theory in ecological restoration. Models of ecological restoration developed in more pristine environments must be modified for use in cities. By anticipating both urban disturbances and ecological succession, management of urban forest patches can be adjusted to better predict and direct long-term outcomes. An urban approach to ecological restoration must use realistic, flexible targets to preserve and enhance urban biodiversity for both short-term benefits and long-term sustainability.

Ecology of the North Sea: Problems, successes, failures, future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinne, O.

1995-03-01

After defining ‘ecology’, outlining the basic categories of ecological research and listing examples of modern ecological investigations, this introductory paper focusses on basic considerations; it is, in essence, a programmatic contribution. Research details on the ecology of the North Sea are the subject of the following papers. The problems of ecological North Sea research are formidable. Hydrological and biological fluctuations and variabilities are pronounced. Exchange patterns with the Atlantic are complex, and the inputs of rivers and rain defy exact measurement and prediction. Season, weather, climate—and as yet insufficiently known and controlled human-caused impacts—further complicate the situation. All this results in an unusually high degree of uncertainty. New questions and problems arise before the old ones can be answered or solved. Nevertheless, ecological North Sea research has achieved many successes. The North Sea is the most intensively investigated sea area on our planet. Generations of zoologists, botanists and hydrographers — and more recently microbiologists, meteorologists, climatologists, chemists, pathologists and toxicologists — have produced an impressive body of knowledge. Slowly we are beginning to understand the forces that govern energy budgets and balances, material fluxes, and the factors that control and direct ecosystem dynamics. Essential driving forces of ecosystem dynamics result from microbial, especially bacterial, activities. Ecological modelling has paved the way for new theories and insights, and holds promise for progress towards a predictive ecology. Failures and shortcomings include insufficient long-term research, inadequately designed experiments, and misconceptions in environmental protection. Net changes in ecological processes of an heterogeneous and intensely varying environment such as the North Sea can only be comprehended adequately against the background of sustained measurements over decades. Future needs include: more long-term research; and new patterns of management, institutional organization and financial support. Essential breakthroughs in field-work demand more teamwork, in-situ experimentation and surveys from space. Studies on the health status of organisms and ecosystems should receive more attention. Finally, there is need for changes in human behaviour: we must use our insight and willpower to meet the deadly consequences of our self-made scientific-technological evolution by an equally self-made ethical evolution aimed at achieving a re-harmonization with nature.

Process Network Approach to Understanding How Forest Ecosystems Adapt to Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Yun, J.; Hong, J.; Kwon, H.; Chun, J.

2011-12-01

Sustainability challenges are transforming science and its role in society. Complex systems science has emerged as an inevitable field of education and research, which transcends disciplinary boundaries and focuses on understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological systems (SES). SES is a combined system of social and ecological components and drivers that interact and give rise to results, which could not be understood on the basis of sociological or ecological considerations alone. However, both systems may be viewed as a network of processes, and such a network hierarchy may serve as a hinge to bridge social and ecological systems. As a first step toward such effort, we attempted to delineate and interpret such process networks in forest ecosystems, which play a critical role in the cycles of carbon and water from local to global scales. These cycles and their variability, in turn, play an important role in the emergent and self-organizing interactions between forest ecosystems and their environment. Ruddell and Kumar (2009) define a process network as a network of feedback loops and the related time scales, which describe the magnitude and direction of the flow of energy, matter, and information between the different variables in a complex system. Observational evidence, based on micrometeorological eddy covariance measurements, suggests that heterogeneity and disturbances in forest ecosystems in monsoon East Asia may facilitate to build resilience for adaptation to change. Yet, the principles that characterize the role of variability in these interactions remain elusive. In this presentation, we report results from the analysis of multivariate ecohydrologic and biogeochemical time series data obtained from temperate forest ecosystems in East Asia based on information flow statistics.

Ecological suicide in microbes.

PubMed

Ratzke, Christoph; Denk, Jonas; Gore, Jeff

2018-05-01

The growth and survival of organisms often depend on interactions between them. In many cases, these interactions are positive and caused by a cooperative modification of the environment. Examples are the cooperative breakdown of complex nutrients in microbes or the construction of elaborate architectures in social insects, in which the individual profits from the collective actions of her peers. However, organisms can similarly display negative interactions by changing the environment in ways that are detrimental for them, for example by resource depletion or the production of toxic byproducts. Here we find an extreme type of negative interactions, in which Paenibacillus sp. bacteria modify the environmental pH to such a degree that it leads to a rapid extinction of the whole population, a phenomenon that we call ecological suicide. Modification of the pH is more pronounced at higher population densities, and thus ecological suicide is more likely to occur with increasing bacterial density. Correspondingly, promoting bacterial growth can drive populations extinct whereas inhibiting bacterial growth by the addition of harmful substances-such as antibiotics-can rescue them. Moreover, ecological suicide can cause oscillatory dynamics, even in single-species populations. We found ecological suicide in a wide variety of microbes, suggesting that it could have an important role in microbial ecology and evolution.

Modeling ecological synergies and trade-offs in livestock production systems in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kowal, V. A.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Hamel, P.

2016-12-01

Livestock production is critical to maintaining livelihoods in many of the world's rural economies, and interacts with complex ecological processes in ways that present both opportunities and risks for ecosystems and the benefits they provide to people. We present a new dynamic simulation model to examine cattle production in the savannas of East Africa, and its synergies and trade-offs with co-benefits such as wildlife conservation and related tourism. The InVEST rangeland production model couples biomass production from the CENTURY model with diet selection and herbivore physiology from the GRAZPLAN animal biology model. This powerful and flexible model demonstrates that through their interactions mediated by forage availability and tick-borne disease, cattle and wildlife may benefit from integration.

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates

PubMed Central

Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-01-01

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso’s highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed. PMID:27162339

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates.

PubMed

Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-06-07

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso's highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed.

Zoonoses As Ecological Entities: A Case Review of Plague

PubMed Central

de Almeida, Alzira Maria Paiva; Cordeiro-Estrela, Pedro

2016-01-01

As a zoonosis, Plague is also an ecological entity, a complex system of ecological interactions between the pathogen, the hosts, and the spatiotemporal variations of its ecosystems. Five reservoir system models have been proposed: (i) assemblages of small mammals with different levels of susceptibility and roles in the maintenance and amplification of the cycle; (ii) species-specific chronic infection models; (ii) flea vectors as the true reservoirs; (iii) Telluric Plague, and (iv) a metapopulation arrangement for species with a discrete spatial organization, following a source-sink dynamic of extinction and recolonization with naïve potential hosts. The diversity of the community that harbors the reservoir system affects the transmission cycle by predation, competition, and dilution effect. Plague has notable environmental constraints, depending on altitude (500+ meters), warm and dry climates, and conditions for high productivity events for expansion of the transmission cycle. Human impacts are altering Plague dynamics by altering landscape and the faunal composition of the foci and adjacent areas, usually increasing the presence and number of human cases and outbreaks. Climatic change is also affecting the range of its occurrence. In the current transitional state of zoonosis as a whole, Plague is at risk of becoming a public health problem in poor countries where ecosystem erosion, anthropic invasion of new areas, and climate change increase the contact of the population with reservoir systems, giving new urgency for ecologic research that further details its maintenance in the wild, the spillover events, and how it links to human cases. PMID:27711205

Zoonoses As Ecological Entities: A Case Review of Plague.

PubMed

Zeppelini, Caio Graco; de Almeida, Alzira Maria Paiva; Cordeiro-Estrela, Pedro

2016-10-01

As a zoonosis, Plague is also an ecological entity, a complex system of ecological interactions between the pathogen, the hosts, and the spatiotemporal variations of its ecosystems. Five reservoir system models have been proposed: (i) assemblages of small mammals with different levels of susceptibility and roles in the maintenance and amplification of the cycle; (ii) species-specific chronic infection models; (ii) flea vectors as the true reservoirs; (iii) Telluric Plague, and (iv) a metapopulation arrangement for species with a discrete spatial organization, following a source-sink dynamic of extinction and recolonization with naïve potential hosts. The diversity of the community that harbors the reservoir system affects the transmission cycle by predation, competition, and dilution effect. Plague has notable environmental constraints, depending on altitude (500+ meters), warm and dry climates, and conditions for high productivity events for expansion of the transmission cycle. Human impacts are altering Plague dynamics by altering landscape and the faunal composition of the foci and adjacent areas, usually increasing the presence and number of human cases and outbreaks. Climatic change is also affecting the range of its occurrence. In the current transitional state of zoonosis as a whole, Plague is at risk of becoming a public health problem in poor countries where ecosystem erosion, anthropic invasion of new areas, and climate change increase the contact of the population with reservoir systems, giving new urgency for ecologic research that further details its maintenance in the wild, the spillover events, and how it links to human cases.

A primer on the study of transitory dynamics in ecological series using the scale-dependent correlation analysis.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Arias, Miquel Angel; Rodó, Xavier

2004-03-01

Here we describe a practical, step-by-step primer to scale-dependent correlation (SDC) analysis. The analysis of transitory processes is an important but often neglected topic in ecological studies because only a few statistical techniques appear to detect temporary features accurately enough. We introduce here the SDC analysis, a statistical and graphical method to study transitory processes at any temporal or spatial scale. SDC analysis, thanks to the combination of conventional procedures and simple well-known statistical techniques, becomes an improved time-domain analogue of wavelet analysis. We use several simple synthetic series to describe the method, a more complex example, full of transitory features, to compare SDC and wavelet analysis, and finally we analyze some selected ecological series to illustrate the methodology. The SDC analysis of time series of copepod abundances in the North Sea indicates that ENSO primarily is the main climatic driver of short-term changes in population dynamics. SDC also uncovers some long-term, unexpected features in the population. Similarly, the SDC analysis of Nicholson's blowflies data locates where the proposed models fail and provides new insights about the mechanism that drives the apparent vanishing of the population cycle during the second half of the series.

Fish community-based measures of estuarine ecological quality and pressure-impact relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, Vanessa F.; Vasconcelos, Rita P.; Gamito, Rita; Pasquaud, Stéphanie; Gonçalves, Catarina I.; Costa, José L.; Costa, Maria J.; Cabral, Henrique N.

2013-12-01

Community-based responses of fish fauna to anthropogenic pressures have been extensively used to assess the ecological quality of estuarine ecosystems. Several methodologies have been developed recently combining metrics reflecting community structure and function. A fish community facing significant environmental disturbances will be characterized by a simplified structure, with lower diversity and complexity. However, estuaries are naturally dynamic ecosystems exposed to numerous human pressures, making it difficult to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic-induced changes to the biological community. In the present work, the variability of several fish metrics was assessed in relation to different pressures in estuarine sites. The response of a multimetric index (Estuarine Fish Assessment Index) was also analysed. Overall, fish metrics and the multimetric index signalled anthropogenic stress, particularly environmental chemical pollution. The fish assemblage associated with this type of pressure was characterized by lower species diversity, lower number of functional guilds, lower abundance of marine migrants and of piscivorous individuals, and higher abundance of estuarine resident species. A decreased ecological quality status, based on the EFAI, was also determined for sites associated with this pressure group. Ultimately, the definition of each pressure groups favoured a stressor-specific analysis, evidencing pressure patterns and accounting for multiple factors in a highly dynamic environment.

Trophic interaction modifications: an empirical and theoretical framework.

PubMed

Terry, J Christopher D; Morris, Rebecca J; Bonsall, Michael B

2017-10-01

Consumer-resource interactions are often influenced by other species in the community. At present these 'trophic interaction modifications' are rarely included in ecological models despite demonstrations that they can drive system dynamics. Here, we advocate and extend an approach that has the potential to unite and represent this key group of non-trophic interactions by emphasising the change to trophic interactions induced by modifying species. We highlight the opportunities this approach brings in comparison to frameworks that coerce trophic interaction modifications into pairwise relationships. To establish common frames of reference and explore the value of the approach, we set out a range of metrics for the 'strength' of an interaction modification which incorporate increasing levels of contextual information about the system. Through demonstrations in three-species model systems, we establish that these metrics capture complimentary aspects of interaction modifications. We show how the approach can be used in a range of empirical contexts; we identify as specific gaps in current understanding experiments with multiple levels of modifier species and the distributions of modifications in networks. The trophic interaction modification approach we propose can motivate and unite empirical and theoretical studies of system dynamics, providing a route to confront ecological complexity. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evolution in action: climate change, biodiversity dynamics and emerging infectious disease.

PubMed

Hoberg, Eric P; Brooks, Daniel R

2015-04-05

Climatological variation and ecological perturbation have been pervasive drivers of faunal assembly, structure and diversification for parasites and pathogens through recurrent events of geographical and host colonization at varying spatial and temporal scales of Earth history. Episodic shifts in climate and environmental settings, in conjunction with ecological mechanisms and host switching, are often critical determinants of parasite diversification, a view counter to more than a century of coevolutionary thinking about the nature of complex host-parasite assemblages. Parasites are resource specialists with restricted host ranges, yet shifts onto relatively unrelated hosts are common during phylogenetic diversification of parasite lineages and directly observable in real time. The emerging Stockholm Paradigm resolves this paradox: Ecological Fitting (EF)--phenotypic flexibility and phylogenetic conservatism in traits related to resource use, most notably host preference--provides many opportunities for rapid host switching in changing environments, without the evolution of novel host-utilization capabilities. Host shifts via EF fuel the expansion phase of the Oscillation Hypothesis of host range and speciation and, more generally, the generation of novel combinations of interacting species within the Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution. In synergy, an environmental dynamic of Taxon Pulses establishes an episodic context for host and geographical colonization. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

DYNAMIC LANDSCAPES, STABILITY AND ECOLOGICAL MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

The image of a ball rolling along a series of hills and valleys is an effective heuristic by which to communicate stability concepts in ecology. However, the dynamics of this landscape model have little to do with ecological systems. Other landscape representations, however, are ...

Termite hindguts and the ecology of microbial communities in the sequencing age.

PubMed

Tai, Vera; Keeling, Patrick J

2013-01-01

Advances in high-throughput nucleic acid sequencing have improved our understanding of microbial communities in a number of ways. Deeper sequence coverage provides the means to assess diversity at the resolution necessary to recover ecological and biogeographic patterns, and at the same time single-cell genomics provides detailed information about the interactions between members of a microbial community. Given the vastness and complexity of microbial ecosystems, such analyses remain challenging for most environments, so greater insight can also be drawn from analysing less dynamic ecosystems. Here, we outline the advantages of one such environment, the wood-digesting hindgut communities of termites and cockroaches, and how it is a model to examine and compare both protist and bacterial communities. Beyond the analysis of diversity, our understanding of protist community ecology will depend on using statistically sound sampling regimes at biologically relevant scales, transitioning from discovery-based to experimental ecology, incorporating single-cell microbiology and other data sources, and continued development of analytical tools. © 2013 The Author(s) Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology © 2013 International Society of Protistologists.

Application of multivariate statistical techniques in microbial ecology.

PubMed

Paliy, O; Shankar, V

2016-03-01

Recent advances in high-throughput methods of molecular analyses have led to an explosion of studies generating large-scale ecological data sets. In particular, noticeable effect has been attained in the field of microbial ecology, where new experimental approaches provided in-depth assessments of the composition, functions and dynamic changes of complex microbial communities. Because even a single high-throughput experiment produces large amount of data, powerful statistical techniques of multivariate analysis are well suited to analyse and interpret these data sets. Many different multivariate techniques are available, and often it is not clear which method should be applied to a particular data set. In this review, we describe and compare the most widely used multivariate statistical techniques including exploratory, interpretive and discriminatory procedures. We consider several important limitations and assumptions of these methods, and we present examples of how these approaches have been utilized in recent studies to provide insight into the ecology of the microbial world. Finally, we offer suggestions for the selection of appropriate methods based on the research question and data set structure. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change: effects on animal disease systems and implications for surveillance and control.

PubMed

de La Rocque, S; Rioux, J A; Slingenbergh, J

2008-08-01

Climate driven and other changes in landscape structure and texture, plus more general factors, may create favourable ecological niches for emerging diseases. Abiotic factors impact on vectors, reservoirs and pathogen bionomics and their ability to establish in new ecosystems. Changes in climatic patterns and in seasonal conditions may affect disease behaviour in terms of spread pattern, diffusion range, amplification and persistence in novel habitats. Pathogen invasion may result in the emergence of novel disease complexes, presenting major challenges for the sustainability of future animal agriculture at the global level. In this paper, some of the ecological mechanisms underlying the impact of climatic change on disease transmission and disease spread are further described. Potential effects of different climatic variables on pathogens and host population dynamics and distribution are complex to assess, and different approaches are used to describe the underlying epidemiological processes and the availability of ecological niches for pathogens and vectors. The invasion process can disrupt the long-term co-evolution of species. Pathogens adhering to an r-type strategy (e.g. RNA viruses) may be more inclined to encroach on a novel niche resulting from climate change. However, even when linkage between disease dynamics and climate change are relatively strong, there are other factors changing disease behaviour, and these should be accounted for as well. Overall vulnerability of a given ecosystem is a key variable in this regard. The impact of climate-driven changes varies in different parts of the world and in the different agro-climatic zones. Perhaps priority should go to those geographical areas where the integrity of the ecosystem is most severely affected and the adaptability, in terms of robustness and sustainability of response, relatively low.

Description and validation of the Simple, Efficient, Dynamic, Global, Ecological Simulator (SEDGES v.1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiewonsky, Pablo; Elison Timm, Oliver

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a simple dynamic global vegetation model whose primary intended use is auxiliary to the land-atmosphere coupling scheme of a climate model, particularly one of intermediate complexity. The model simulates and provides important ecological-only variables but also some hydrological and surface energy variables that are typically either simulated by land surface schemes or else used as boundary data input for these schemes. The model formulations and their derivations are presented here, in detail. The model includes some realistic and useful features for its level of complexity, including a photosynthetic dependency on light, full coupling of photosynthesis and transpiration through an interactive canopy resistance, and a soil organic carbon dependence for bare-soil albedo. We evaluate the model's performance by running it as part of a simple land surface scheme that is driven by reanalysis data. The evaluation against observational data includes net primary productivity, leaf area index, surface albedo, and diagnosed variables relevant for the closure of the hydrological cycle. In this setup, we find that the model gives an adequate to good simulation of basic large-scale ecological and hydrological variables. Of the variables analyzed in this paper, gross primary productivity is particularly well simulated. The results also reveal the current limitations of the model. The most significant deficiency is the excessive simulation of evapotranspiration in mid- to high northern latitudes during their winter to spring transition. The model has a relative advantage in situations that require some combination of computational efficiency, model transparency and tractability, and the simulation of the large-scale vegetation and land surface characteristics under non-present-day conditions.

Socio-economic and ecological transformations of the peri-urban region of Gurgaon: an analysis of the trickle-down effect in the post globalization era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, A.; Punia, M.

2014-11-01

Economic processes are a manifestation of dynamic complex interdependent array of factors which involves resources, technology and an acting innovative human mind. Production, growth and development are the processes which has vast number of complex drivers, determinants and factors. Innovation, research, diffusion and dissemination are vital instrument of the economic processes of production, which are part of education. Whereas ecological transformations can be corroborated and analyzed by integrating remote sensing based information related to expansion of built-up area beyond city boundaries, extending to peripheries. City reflect economic, environmental, technological and social processes in their change, yet all are in turn profoundly driven by the urban spatial expansion. Metropolitan cities reflects expansion of existing urban and peri-urban areas with a significant socio-ecological transformation in terms of employment, education, and work force participation and land use changes. From the point of view of New Economic Geography (NEG) Theory 2009, the growth dynamic of metros is influenced by their proximity and dependence to a metropolis and the probable spillover effect. Entry point of discussion is the change in production of space in the post globalization era. It attempts to understand city morphology by using remote sensing datasets of LISS IV, IRS-P6 of 5.8 m spatial resolution for 2008 and 2013 and used Gurgaon Municipal Corporation's (GMC) ward boundary to represent socio-political meaning of this expansion and ways of life within the suburb. To understand how city works, detailed analysis related occupational structure, education and informality of ward 31 of Gurgaon and two villages namely Behlpa, Fazalwas and ward 11 of Nuh ( Mewat) along with the village Gabsanpur is attempted as the spatial units of study.

Study on planning and design of ecological tourist rural complex for the elderly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Zhoulin; Jiang, Nan; He, Yunxiao; Long, Yanping

2018-03-01

In order to deal with the increasingly serious aging problem in China, a new model about serving the aged better needs to be explored. This paper puts forward the concept of ecological tourist rural complex for the elderly, a novel pattern that combining the rural retirement place with pastoral complex which is proposed recently. A concrete example of Deteng complex in Mianyang is given to explore the construction condition and planning approach. Three important aspects including pastoral, ecology, serving the aged are the core elements to develop ecological tourist rural complex for the elderly.

Ecological networks and their fragility.

PubMed

Montoya, José M; Pimm, Stuart L; Solé, Ricard V

2006-07-20

Darwin used the metaphor of a 'tangled bank' to describe the complex interactions between species. Those interactions are varied: they can be antagonistic ones involving predation, herbivory and parasitism, or mutualistic ones, such as those involving the pollination of flowers by insects. Moreover, the metaphor hints that the interactions may be complex to the point of being impossible to understand. All interactions can be visualized as ecological networks, in which species are linked together, either directly or indirectly through intermediate species. Ecological networks, although complex, have well defined patterns that both illuminate the ecological mechanisms underlying them and promise a better understanding of the relationship between complexity and ecological stability.

Day-Ahead Anticipation of Complex Network Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefanov, S. Z.; Wang, Paul P.

2017-11-01

In this paper, a day-ahead anticipation of complex network vulnerability for an intentional threat of an attack or a shock is carried out. An ecological observer is introduced for that reason, which is a watch in the intentional multiverse, tiled by cells; dynamics of the intentional threat for a day-ahead is characterized by a space-time cell; spreading of the intentional threat is derived from its energy; duration of the intentional threat is found by the self-assembling of a space-time cell; the lower bound of probability is assessed to anticipate for a day-ahead the intentional threat; it is indicated that this vulnerability anticipation for a day-ahead is right when the intentional threat leads to dimension doubling of the complex network.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.

PubMed

Heesterbeek, Hans; Anderson, Roy M; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken T D; Edmunds, W John; Frost, Simon D W; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, T Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Roberts, Mick G; Viboud, Cecile

2015-03-13

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The statistical power to detect cross-scale interactions at macroscales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Fergus, C. Emi; Stow, Craig A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra S.; Soranno, Patricia A.

2016-01-01

Macroscale studies of ecological phenomena are increasingly common because stressors such as climate and land-use change operate at large spatial and temporal scales. Cross-scale interactions (CSIs), where ecological processes operating at one spatial or temporal scale interact with processes operating at another scale, have been documented in a variety of ecosystems and contribute to complex system dynamics. However, studies investigating CSIs are often dependent on compiling multiple data sets from different sources to create multithematic, multiscaled data sets, which results in structurally complex, and sometimes incomplete data sets. The statistical power to detect CSIs needs to be evaluated because of their importance and the challenge of quantifying CSIs using data sets with complex structures and missing observations. We studied this problem using a spatially hierarchical model that measures CSIs between regional agriculture and its effects on the relationship between lake nutrients and lake productivity. We used an existing large multithematic, multiscaled database, LAke multiscaled GeOSpatial, and temporal database (LAGOS), to parameterize the power analysis simulations. We found that the power to detect CSIs was more strongly related to the number of regions in the study rather than the number of lakes nested within each region. CSI power analyses will not only help ecologists design large-scale studies aimed at detecting CSIs, but will also focus attention on CSI effect sizes and the degree to which they are ecologically relevant and detectable with large data sets.

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

Towards a comprehensive understanding of emerging dynamics and function of pancreatic islets: A complex network approach. Comment on "Network science of biological systems at different scales: A review" by Gosak et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loppini, Alessandro

2018-03-01

Complex network theory represents a comprehensive mathematical framework to investigate biological systems, ranging from sub-cellular and cellular scales up to large-scale networks describing species interactions and ecological systems. In their exhaustive and comprehensive work [1], Gosak et al. discuss several scenarios in which the network approach was able to uncover general properties and underlying mechanisms of cells organization and regulation, tissue functions and cell/tissue failure in pathology, by the study of chemical reaction networks, structural networks and functional connectivities.

Utilizing the Landsat spectral-temporal domain for improved mapping and monitoring of ecosystem state and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquarella, Valerie J.

Just as the carbon dioxide observations that form the Keeling curve revolutionized the study of the global carbon cycle, free and open access to all available Landsat imagery is fundamentally changing how the Landsat record is being used to study ecosystems and ecological dynamics. This dissertation advances the use of Landsat time series for visualization, classification, and detection of changes in terrestrial ecological processes. More specifically, it includes new examples of how complex ecological patterns manifest in time series of Landsat observations, as well as novel approaches for detecting and quantifying these patterns. Exploration of the complexity of spectral-temporal patterns in the Landsat record reveals both seasonal variability and longer-term trajectories difficult to characterize using conventional bi-temporal or even annual observations. These examples provide empirical evidence of hypothetical ecosystem response functions proposed by Kennedy et al. (2014). Quantifying observed seasonal and phenological differences in the spectral reflectance of Massachusetts' forest communities by combining existing harmonic curve fitting and phenology detection algorithms produces stable feature sets that consistently out-performed more traditional approaches for detailed forest type classification. This study addresses the current lack of species-level forest data at Landsat resolutions, demonstrating the advantages of spectral-temporal features as classification inputs. Development of a targeted change detection method using transformations of time series data improves spatial and temporal information on the occurrence of flood events in landscapes actively modified by recovering North American beaver (Castor canadensis) populations. These results indicate the utility of the Landsat record for the study of species-habitat relationships, even in complex wetland environments. Overall, this dissertation confirms the value of the Landsat archive as a continuous record of terrestrial ecosystem state and dynamics. Given the global coverage of remote sensing datasets, the time series visualization and analysis approaches presented here can be extended to other areas. These approaches will also be improved by more frequent collection of moderate resolution imagery, as planned by the Landsat and Sentinel-2 programs. In the modern era of global environmental change, use of the Landsat spectral-temporal domain presents new and exciting opportunities for the long-term large-scale study of ecosystem extent, composition, condition, and change.

Unexpected Nongenetic Individual Heterogeneity and Trait Covariance in Daphnia and Its Consequences for Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics.

PubMed

Cressler, Clayton E; Bengtson, Stefan; Nelson, William A

2017-07-01

Individual differences in genetics, age, or environment can cause tremendous differences in individual life-history traits. This individual heterogeneity generates demographic heterogeneity at the population level, which is predicted to have a strong impact on both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, we know surprisingly little about the sources of individual heterogeneity for particular taxa or how different sources scale up to impact ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here we experimentally study the individual heterogeneity that emerges from both genetic and nongenetic sources in a species of freshwater zooplankton across a large gradient of food quality. Despite the tight control of environment, we still find that the variation from nongenetic sources is greater than that from genetic sources over a wide range of food quality and that this variation has strong positive covariance between growth and reproduction. We evaluate the general consequences of genetic and nongenetic covariance for ecological and evolutionary dynamics theoretically and find that increasing nongenetic variation slows evolution independent of the correlation in heritable life-history traits but that the impact on ecological dynamics depends on both nongenetic and genetic covariance. Our results demonstrate that variation in the relative magnitude of nongenetic versus genetic sources of variation impacts the predicted ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

Complex networks of functional connectivity in a wetland reconnected to its floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Laurel G.; Newman, Susan; Saunders, Colin; Harvey, Judson

2017-01-01

Disturbances such as fire or flood, in addition to changing the local magnitude of ecological, hydrological, or biogeochemical processes, can also change their functional connectivity—how those processes interact in space. Complex networks offer promise for quantifying functional connectivity in watersheds. The approach resolves connections between nodes in space based on statistical similarities in perturbation signals (derived from solute time series) and is sensitive to a wider range of timescales than traditional mass-balance modeling. We use this approach to test hypotheses about how fire and flood impact ecological and biogeochemical dynamics in a wetland (Everglades, FL, USA) that was reconnected to its floodplain. Reintroduction of flow pulses after decades of separation by levees fundamentally reconfigured functional connectivity networks. The most pronounced expansion was that of the calcium network, which reflects periphyton dynamics and may represent an indirect influence of elevated nutrients, despite the comparatively smaller observed expansion of phosphorus networks. With respect to several solutes, periphyton acted as a “biotic filter,” shifting perturbations in water-quality signals to different timescales through slow but persistent transformations of the biotic community. The complex-networks approach also revealed portions of the landscape that operate in fundamentally different regimes with respect to dissolved oxygen, separated by a threshold in flow velocity of 1.2 cm/s, and suggested that complete removal of canals may be needed to restore connectivity with respect to biogeochemical processes. Fire reconfigured functional connectivity networks in a manner that reflected localized burn severity, but had a larger effect on the magnitude of solute concentrations.

Complex networks of functional connectivity in a wetland reconnected to its floodplain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, Laurel G.; Newman, Susan; Saunders, Colin; Harvey, Judson W.

2017-07-01

Disturbances such as fire or flood, in addition to changing the local magnitude of ecological, hydrological, or biogeochemical processes, can also change their functional connectivity—how those processes interact in space. Complex networks offer promise for quantifying functional connectivity in watersheds. The approach resolves connections between nodes in space based on statistical similarities in perturbation signals (derived from solute time series) and is sensitive to a wider range of timescales than traditional mass-balance modeling. We use this approach to test hypotheses about how fire and flood impact ecological and biogeochemical dynamics in a wetland (Everglades, FL, USA) that was reconnected to its floodplain. Reintroduction of flow pulses after decades of separation by levees fundamentally reconfigured functional connectivity networks. The most pronounced expansion was that of the calcium network, which reflects periphyton dynamics and may represent an indirect influence of elevated nutrients, despite the comparatively smaller observed expansion of phosphorus networks. With respect to several solutes, periphyton acted as a "biotic filter," shifting perturbations in water-quality signals to different timescales through slow but persistent transformations of the biotic community. The complex-networks approach also revealed portions of the landscape that operate in fundamentally different regimes with respect to dissolved oxygen, separated by a threshold in flow velocity of 1.2 cm/s, and suggested that complete removal of canals may be needed to restore connectivity with respect to biogeochemical processes. Fire reconfigured functional connectivity networks in a manner that reflected localized burn severity, but had a larger effect on the magnitude of solute concentrations.

Multivariate Models of Adult Pacific Salmon Returns

PubMed Central

Burke, Brian J.; Peterson, William T.; Beckman, Brian R.; Morgan, Cheryl; Daly, Elizabeth A.; Litz, Marisa

2013-01-01

Most modeling and statistical approaches encourage simplicity, yet ecological processes are often complex, as they are influenced by numerous dynamic environmental and biological factors. Pacific salmon abundance has been highly variable over the last few decades and most forecasting models have proven inadequate, primarily because of a lack of understanding of the processes affecting variability in survival. Better methods and data for predicting the abundance of returning adults are therefore required to effectively manage the species. We combined 31 distinct indicators of the marine environment collected over an 11-year period into a multivariate analysis to summarize and predict adult spring Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River in 2012. In addition to forecasts, this tool quantifies the strength of the relationship between various ecological indicators and salmon returns, allowing interpretation of ecosystem processes. The relative importance of indicators varied, but a few trends emerged. Adult returns of spring Chinook salmon were best described using indicators of bottom-up ecological processes such as composition and abundance of zooplankton and fish prey as well as measures of individual fish, such as growth and condition. Local indicators of temperature or coastal upwelling did not contribute as much as large-scale indicators of temperature variability, matching the spatial scale over which salmon spend the majority of their ocean residence. Results suggest that effective management of Pacific salmon requires multiple types of data and that no single indicator can represent the complex early-ocean ecology of salmon. PMID:23326586

Marine reserves as linked social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Pollnac, Richard; Christie, Patrick; Cinner, Joshua E; Dalton, Tracey; Daw, Tim M; Forrester, Graham E; Graham, Nicholas A J; McClanahan, Timothy R

2010-10-26

Marine reserves are increasingly recognized as having linked social and ecological dynamics. This study investigates how the ecological performance of 56 marine reserves throughout the Philippines, Caribbean, and Western Indian Ocean (WIO) is related to both reserve design features and the socioeconomic characteristics in associated coastal communities. Ecological performance was measured as fish biomass in the reserve relative to nearby areas. Of the socioeconomic variables considered, human population density and compliance with reserve rules had the strongest effects on fish biomass, but the effects of these variables were region specific. Relationships between population density and the reserve effect on fish biomass were negative in the Caribbean, positive in the WIO, and not detectable in the Philippines. Differing associations between population density and reserve effectiveness defy simple explanation but may depend on human migration to effective reserves, depletion of fish stocks outside reserves, or other social factors that change with population density. Higher levels of compliance reported by resource users was related to higher fish biomass in reserves compared with outside, but this relationship was only statistically significant in the Caribbean. A heuristic model based on correlations between social, cultural, political, economic, and other contextual conditions in 127 marine reserves showed that high levels of compliance with reserve rules were related to complex social interactions rather than simply to enforcement of reserve rules. Comparative research of this type is important for uncovering the complexities surrounding human dimensions of marine reserves and improving reserve management.

ecological geological maps: GIS-based evaluation of the Geo-Ecological Quality Index (GEQUI) in Sicily (Central Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigro, Fabrizio; Arisco, Giuseppe; Perricone, Marcella; Renda, Pietro; Favara, Rocco

2010-05-01

The condition of landscapes and the ecological communities within them is strongly related to levels of human activity. As a consequence, determining status and trends in the pattern of human-dominated landscapes can be useful for understanding the overall conditions of geo-ecological resources. Ecological geological maps are recent tools providing useful informations about a-biotic and biotic features worldwide. These maps represents a new generation of geological maps and depict the lithospheric components conditions on surface, where ecological dynamics (functions and properties) and human activities develop. Thus, these maps are too a fundamental political tool to plan the human activities management in relationship to the territorial/environmental patterns of a date region. Different types of ecological geological maps can be develop regarding the: conditions (situations), zoning, prognosis and recommendations. The ecological geological conditions maps reflects the complex of parameters or individual characteristics of lithosphere, which characterized the opportunity of the influence of lithosphere components on the biota (man, fauna, flora, and ecosystem). The ecological geological zoning maps are foundamental basis for prognosis estimation and nature defenses measures. Estimation from the position of comfort and safety of human life and function of ecosystem is given on these maps. The ecological geological prognosis maps reflect the spatial-temporary prognoses of ecological geological conditions changing during the natural dynamic of natural surrounding and the main-during the economic mastering of territory and natural technical systems. Finally, the ecological geological recommendation maps are based on the ecological geological and social-economical informations, aiming the regulation of territory by the regulation of economic activities and the defense of bio- and socio-sphere extents. Each of these maps may also be computed or in analytic or in synthetic way. The first, characterized or estimated, prognosticated one or several indexes of geological ecological conditions. In the second type of maps, the whole complex is reflected, which defined the modern or prognosticable ecological geological situation. Regarding the ecological geological zoning maps, the contemporary state of ecological geological conditions may be evaluated by a range of parameters into classes of conditions and, on the basis of these informations, the estimation from the position of comfort and safety of human life and function of ecosystem is given. Otherwise, the concept of geoecological land evaluation has become established in the study of landscape/environmental plannings in recent years. It requires different thematic data-sets, deriving from the natural-, social- and amenity-environmental resources analysis, that may be translate in environmental (vulnerability/quality) indexes. There have been some attempts to develop integrated indices related to various aspects of the environment within the framework of sustainable development (e.g.: United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development, World Economic Forum, Advisory Board on Indicators of Sustainable Development of the International Institute for Sustainable Development, Living Planet Index established by the World Wide Fund for Nature, etc.). So, the ecological geological maps represent the basic tool for the geoecological land evaluation policies and may be computed in terms of index-maps. On these basis, a GIS application for assessing the ecological geological zoning is presented for Sicily (Central Mediterranean). The Geo-Ecological Quality Index (GEQUI) map was computed by considering a lot of variables. Ten variables (lithology, climate, landslide distribution, erosion rate, soil type, land cover, habitat, groundwater pollution, roads density and buildings density) generated from available data, were used in the model, in which weighting values to each informative layer were assigned. An overlay analysis was carried out, allowing to classify the region into five classes: bad, poor, moderate, good and high.

Dynamic expression of ancient and novel molluscan shell genes during ecological transitions

PubMed Central

Jackson, Daniel J; Wörheide, Gert; Degnan, Bernard M

2007-01-01

Background The Mollusca constitute one of the most morphologically and ecologically diverse metazoan phyla, occupying a wide range of marine, terrestrial and freshwater habitats. The evolutionary success of the molluscs can in part be attributed to the evolvability of the external shell. Typically, the shell first forms during embryonic and larval development, changing dramatically in shape, colour and mineralogical composition as development and maturation proceeds. Major developmental transitions in shell morphology often correlate with ecological transitions (e.g. from a planktonic to benthic existence at metamorphosis). While the genes involved in molluscan biomineralisation are beginning to be identified, there is little understanding of how these are developmentally regulated, or if the same genes are operational at different stages of the mollusc's life. Results Here we relate the developmental expression of nine genes in the tissue responsible for shell production – the mantle – to ecological transitions that occur during the lifetime of the tropical abalone Haliotis asinina (Vetigastropoda). Four of these genes encode evolutionarily ancient proteins, while four others encode secreted proteins with little or no identity to known proteins. Another gene has been previously described from the mantle of another haliotid vetigastropod. All nine genes display dynamic spatial and temporal expression profiles within the larval shell field and juvenile mantle. Conclusion These expression data reflect the regulatory complexity that underlies molluscan shell construction from larval stages to adulthood, and serves to highlight the different ecological demands placed on each stage. The use of both ancient and novel genes in all stages of shell construction also suggest that a core set of shell-making genes was provided by a shared metazoan ancestor, which has been elaborated upon to produce the range of molluscan shell types we see today. PMID:17845714

Exploring the dynamics of research collaborations by mapping social networks in invasion science.

PubMed

Abrahams, B; Sitas, N; Esler, K J

2018-06-19

Moving towards more integrative approaches within the invasion sciences has been recognized as a means of improving linkages between science, policy, and practice. Yet despite the recognition that biological invasions pose complex social-ecological challenges, the invasion literature poorly covers social-ecological or distinctly integrative research. Various initiatives and investments have been made towards building research capacity and conducting more integrative research aimed at improving the management of biological invasions. Using a combination of social network and thematic analysis approaches, and the South African Working for Water (WfW) program as a case study for the management of invasive species, we identify and explore the roles of core authors in shaping collaboration networks and research outputs, based on bibliographic records. We found that research produced under the auspices of WfW is authored by a handful of core authors, conducting primarily ecologically-focused research, with social research significantly underrepresented. Core authors identified in this study play an essential role in mediating relationships between researchers, in addition to potentially controlling access to those seeking to form collaborations, maintaining network cohesion and connectivity across institutional and disciplinary boundaries. Research projects should be designed to span disciplines and institutions if they are to adequately address complex challenges. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Where you stand depends on where you sit: Qualitative inquiry into notions of fire adaptation

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Christopher M. Barth

2017-01-01

Wildfire and the threat it poses to society represents an example of the complex, dynamic relationship between social and ecological systems. Increasingly, wildfire adaptation is posited as a pathway to shift the approach to fire from a suppression paradigm that seeks to control fire to a paradigm that focuses on “living with” and “adapting to” wildfire. In this study...

A standardized tritrophic small-scale system (TriCosm) for the assessment of stressor-induced effects on aquatic community dynamics.

PubMed

Riedl, Verena; Agatz, Annika; Benstead, Rachel; Ashauer, Roman

2018-04-01

Chemical impacts on the environment are routinely assessed in single-species tests. They are employed to measure direct effects on nontarget organisms, but indirect effects on ecological interactions can only be detected in multispecies tests. Micro- and mesocosms are more complex and environmentally realistic, yet they are less frequently used for environmental risk assessment because resource demand is high, whereas repeatability and statistical power are often low. Test systems fulfilling regulatory needs (i.e., standardization, repeatability, and replication) and the assessment of impacts on species interactions and indirect effects are lacking. In the present study we describe the development of the TriCosm, a repeatable aquatic multispecies test with 3 trophic levels and increased statistical power. High repeatability of community dynamics of 3 interacting aquatic populations (algae, Ceriodaphnia, and Hydra) was found with an average coefficient of variation of 19.5% and the ability to determine small effect sizes. The TriCosm combines benefits of both single-species tests (fulfillment of regulatory requirements) and complex multispecies tests (ecological relevance) and can be used, for instance, at an intermediate tier in environmental risk assessment. Furthermore, comparatively quickly generated population and community toxicity data can be useful for the development and testing of mechanistic effect models. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1051-1060. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

How Complex, Probable, and Predictable is Genetically Driven Red Queen Chaos?

PubMed

Duarte, Jorge; Rodrigues, Carla; Januário, Cristina; Martins, Nuno; Sardanyés, Josep

2015-12-01

Coevolution between two antagonistic species has been widely studied theoretically for both ecologically- and genetically-driven Red Queen dynamics. A typical outcome of these systems is an oscillatory behavior causing an endless series of one species adaptation and others counter-adaptation. More recently, a mathematical model combining a three-species food chain system with an adaptive dynamics approach revealed genetically driven chaotic Red Queen coevolution. In the present article, we analyze this mathematical model mainly focusing on the impact of species rates of evolution (mutation rates) in the dynamics. Firstly, we analytically proof the boundedness of the trajectories of the chaotic attractor. The complexity of the coupling between the dynamical variables is quantified using observability indices. By using symbolic dynamics theory, we quantify the complexity of genetically driven Red Queen chaos computing the topological entropy of existing one-dimensional iterated maps using Markov partitions. Co-dimensional two bifurcation diagrams are also built from the period ordering of the orbits of the maps. Then, we study the predictability of the Red Queen chaos, found in narrow regions of mutation rates. To extend the previous analyses, we also computed the likeliness of finding chaos in a given region of the parameter space varying other model parameters simultaneously. Such analyses allowed us to compute a mean predictability measure for the system in the explored region of the parameter space. We found that genetically driven Red Queen chaos, although being restricted to small regions of the analyzed parameter space, might be highly unpredictable.

Socio-ecological dynamics and challenges to the governance of Neglected Tropical Disease control.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Madon, Shirin

2017-02-06

The current global attempts to control the so-called "Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)" have the potential to significantly reduce the morbidity suffered by some of the world's poorest communities. However, the governance of these control programmes is driven by a managerial rationality that assumes predictability of proposed interventions, and which thus primarily seeks to improve the cost-effectiveness of implementation by measuring performance in terms of pre-determined outputs. Here, we argue that this approach has reinforced the narrow normal-science model for controlling parasitic diseases, and in doing so fails to address the complex dynamics, uncertainty and socio-ecological context-specificity that invariably underlie parasite transmission. We suggest that a new governance approach is required that draws on a combination of non-equilibrium thinking about the operation of complex, adaptive, systems from the natural sciences and constructivist social science perspectives that view the accumulation of scientific knowledge as contingent on historical interests and norms, if more effective control approaches sufficiently sensitive to local disease contexts are to be devised, applied and managed. At the core of this approach is an emphasis on the need for a process that assists with the inclusion of diverse perspectives, social learning and deliberation, and a reflexive approach to addressing system complexity and incertitude, while balancing this flexibility with stability-focused structures. We derive and discuss a possible governance framework and outline an organizational structure that could be used to effectively deal with the complexity of accomplishing global NTD control. We also point to examples of complexity-based management structures that have been used in parasite control previously, which could serve as practical templates for developing similar governance structures to better manage global NTD control. Our results hold important wider implications for global health policy aiming to effectively control and eradicate parasitic diseases across the world.

Workshop on Closed System Ecology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Self maintaining laboratory scale ecological systems completely isolated from exchanges of matter with external systems were demonstrated. These research tools are discussed in terms of their anticipated value in understanding (1) global ecological material and energy balances, (2) the dynamics of stability and instability in ecosystems, (3) the effects of man-made substances and structures on ecosystems, and (4) the precise requirements for dynamic control of controlled ecology life support systems (CELSS).

Fluvial wood function downstream of beaver versus man-made dams in headwater streams in Massachusetts, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, G. C.; DeVito, L. F.; Munz, K. T.; Lisius, G.

2014-12-01

Fluvial wood is an essential component of stream ecosystems by providing habitat, increasing accumulation of organic matter, and increasing the processing of nutrients and other materials. However, years of channel alterations in Massachusetts have resulted in low wood loads despite the afforestation that has occurred since the early 1900s. Streams have also been impacted by a large density of dams, built during industrialization, and reduction of the beaver population. Beavers were reintroduced to Massachusetts in the 1940s and they have since migrated throughout the state. Beaver dams impound water, which traps sediment and results in the development of complex channel patterns and more ecologically productive and diverse habitats than those found adjacent to man-made dams. To develop better management practices for dam removal it is essential that we understand the geomorphic and ecologic function of wood in these channels and the interconnections with floodplain dynamics and stream water chemistry. We investigate the connections among fluvial wood, channel morphology, floodplain soil moisture dynamics, and stream water chemistry in six watersheds in Massachusetts that have been impacted by either beaver or man-made dams. We hypothesize that wood load will be significantly higher below beaver dams, subsequently altering channel morphology, water chemistry, and floodplain soil moisture. Reaches are surveyed up- and downstream of each type of dam to better understand the impact dams have on the fluvial system. Surveys include a longitudinal profile, paired with dissolved oxygen and ammonium measurements, cross-section and fluvial wood surveys, hydraulic measurements, and floodplain soil moisture mapping. We found that dissolved oxygen mirrored the channel morphology, but did not vary significantly between reaches. Wood loads were significantly larger downstream of beaver dams, which resulted in significant changes to the ammonium levels. Floodplain soil moisture dynamics revealed that wood loads increased the channel complexity and strengthened connections between the stream channel and floodplain. Future work will continue to explore the complex interconnections between beaver dams, channel morphology, hydraulics, floodplain dynamics and water chemistry.

Isolation and characterization of a virus infecting the freshwater algae Chrysochromulina parva

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirza, S.F.; Staniewski, M.A.; Short, C.M.

Water samples from Lake Ontario, Canada were tested for lytic activity against the freshwater haptophyte algae Chrysochromulina parva. A filterable lytic agent was isolated and identified as a virus via transmission electron microscopy and molecular methods. The virus, CpV-BQ1, is icosahedral, ca. 145 nm in diameter, assembled within the cytoplasm, and has a genome size of ca. 485 kb. Sequences obtained through PCR-amplification of DNA polymerase (polB) genes clustered among sequences from the family Phycodnaviridae, whereas major capsid protein (MCP) sequences clustered among sequences from either the Phycodnaviridae or Mimiviridae. Based on quantitative molecular assays, C. parva's abundance in Lakemore » Ontario was relatively stable, yet CpV-BQ1's abundance was variable suggesting complex virus-host dynamics. This study demonstrates that CpV-BQ1 is a member of the proposed order Megavirales with characteristics of both phycodnaviruses and mimiviruses indicating that, in addition to its complex ecological dynamics, it also has a complex evolutionary history. - Highlights: • A virus infecting the algae C. parva was isolated from Lake Ontario. • Virus characteristics demonstrated that this novel virus is an NCLDV. • The virus's polB sequence suggests taxonomic affiliation with the Phycodnaviridae. • The virus's capsid protein sequences also suggest Mimiviridae ancestry. • Surveys of host and virus natural abundances revealed complex host–virus dynamics.« less

On the Coastal Dynamics of Sea Level Rise: A case study in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

One of the most prominent aspects of global climate change is sea level rise (SLR). With over half of the U.S. population living within 50 miles of the coast, SLR has the potential to considerably impact both human and ecological habitats. Effects of SLR will be felt along coastal beaches, estuarine waters, barrier islands, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, sand and mud flats, oyster reefs and tidal and freshwater wetlands. The Gulf of Mexico coast sustains a diverse habitat including delta marshes, lower river floodplain forests, and oyster reefs, which provide critical habitats for many commercially important species. How we choose to study these complex processes and the adaptation tools that we develop may determine our ability to sustain the human and ecological habitats. The purpose of this presentation is to examine the dynamic effects of SLR to the coasts and coastal habitats of the Northern Gulf of Mexico and to compare and contrast those results with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. Dynamic assessments will be presented through integrated models representing wave, tidal, overland, bay and biological processes. The models are applied to regions of the Northern Gulf to simulate hydrodynamic properties including waves, tides, and surge, and to estimate impacts to coastal marshes, wetlands and estuaries. Results strongly indicate the importance of simulating the dynamical processes.

Intraguild Predation Dynamics in a Lake Ecosystem Based on a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Model: The Example of Lake Kinneret (Israel).

PubMed

Makler-Pick, Vardit; Hipsey, Matthew R; Zohary, Tamar; Carmel, Yohay; Gal, Gideon

2017-03-29

The food web of Lake Kinneret contains intraguild predation (IGP). Predatory invertebrates and planktivorous fish both feed on herbivorous zooplankton, while the planktivorous fish also feed on the predatory invertebrates. In this study, a complex mechanistic hydrodynamic-ecological model, coupled to a bioenergetics-based fish population model (DYCD-FISH), was employed with the aim of revealing IGP dynamics. The results indicate that the predation pressure of predatory zooplankton on herbivorous zooplankton varies widely, depending on the season. At the time of its annual peak, it is 10-20 times higher than the fish predation pressure. When the number of fish was significantly higher, as occurs in the lake after atypical meteorological years, the effect was a shift from a bottom-up controlled ecosystem, to the top-down control of planktivorous fish and a significant reduction of predatory and herbivorous zooplankton biomass. Yet, seasonally, the decrease in predatory-zooplankton biomass was followed by a decrease in their predation pressure on herbivorous zooplankton, leading to an increase of herbivorous zooplankton biomass to an extent similar to the base level. The analysis demonstrates the emergence of non-equilibrium IGP dynamics due to intra-annual and inter-annual changes in the physico-chemical characteristics of the lake, and suggests that IGP dynamics should be considered in food web models in order to more accurately capture mass transfer and trophic interactions.

Capturing the genetic makeup of the active microbiome in situ.

PubMed

Singer, Esther; Wagner, Michael; Woyke, Tanja

2017-09-01

More than any other technology, nucleic acid sequencing has enabled microbial ecology studies to be complemented with the data volumes necessary to capture the extent of microbial diversity and dynamics in a wide range of environments. In order to truly understand and predict environmental processes, however, the distinction between active, inactive and dead microbial cells is critical. Also, experimental designs need to be sensitive toward varying population complexity and activity, and temporal as well as spatial scales of process rates. There are a number of approaches, including single-cell techniques, which were designed to study in situ microbial activity and that have been successively coupled to nucleic acid sequencing. The exciting new discoveries regarding in situ microbial activity provide evidence that future microbial ecology studies will indispensably rely on techniques that specifically capture members of the microbiome active in the environment. Herein, we review those currently used activity-based approaches that can be directly linked to shotgun nucleic acid sequencing, evaluate their relevance to ecology studies, and discuss future directions.

Survivial Strategies in Bacterial Range Expansions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Erwin

2014-03-01

Bacterial communities represent complex and dynamic ecological systems. Different environmental conditions as well as bacterial interactions determine the establishment and sustainability of bacterial diversity. In this talk we discuss the competition of three Escherichia coli strains during range expansions on agar plates. In this bacterial model system, a colicin E2 producing strain C competes with a colicin resistant strain R and with a colicin sensitive strain S for new territory. Genetic engineering allows us to tune the growth rates of the strains and to study distinct ecological scenarios. These scenarios may lead to either single-strain dominance, pairwise coexistence, or to the coexistence of all three strains. In order to elucidate the survival mechanisms of the individual strains, we also developed a stochastic agent-based model to capture the ecological scenarios in silico. In a combined theoretical and experimental approach we are able to show that the level of biodiversity depends crucially on the composition of the inoculum, on the relative growth rates of the three strains, and on the effective reach of colicin toxicity.

Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2018-07-01

Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

Capturing the genetic makeup of the active microbiome in situ

PubMed Central

Singer, Esther; Wagner, Michael; Woyke, Tanja

2017-01-01

More than any other technology, nucleic acid sequencing has enabled microbial ecology studies to be complemented with the data volumes necessary to capture the extent of microbial diversity and dynamics in a wide range of environments. In order to truly understand and predict environmental processes, however, the distinction between active, inactive and dead microbial cells is critical. Also, experimental designs need to be sensitive toward varying population complexity and activity, and temporal as well as spatial scales of process rates. There are a number of approaches, including single-cell techniques, which were designed to study in situ microbial activity and that have been successively coupled to nucleic acid sequencing. The exciting new discoveries regarding in situ microbial activity provide evidence that future microbial ecology studies will indispensably rely on techniques that specifically capture members of the microbiome active in the environment. Herein, we review those currently used activity-based approaches that can be directly linked to shotgun nucleic acid sequencing, evaluate their relevance to ecology studies, and discuss future directions. PMID:28574490

Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-11-01

Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

Complexity in models of cultural niche construction with selection and homophily.

PubMed

Creanza, Nicole; Feldman, Marcus W

2014-07-22

Niche construction is the process by which organisms can alter the ecological environment for themselves, their descendants, and other species. As a result of niche construction, differences in selection pressures may be inherited across generations. Homophily, the tendency of like phenotypes to mate or preferentially associate, influences the evolutionary dynamics of these systems. Here we develop a model that includes selection and homophily as independent culturally transmitted traits that influence the fitness and mate choice determined by another focal cultural trait. We study the joint dynamics of a focal set of beliefs, a behavior that can differentially influence the fitness of those with certain beliefs, and a preference for partnering based on similar beliefs. Cultural transmission, selection, and homophily interact to produce complex evolutionary dynamics, including oscillations, stable polymorphisms of all cultural phenotypes, and simultaneous stability of oscillation and fixation, which have not previously been observed in models of cultural evolution or gene-culture interactions. We discuss applications of this model to the interaction of beliefs and behaviors regarding education, contraception, and animal domestication.

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

PubMed Central

Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

2013-01-01

Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

Microbial dynamics and biodiversity in table olive fermentation: culture-dependent and -independent approaches

PubMed Central

Botta, Cristian; Cocolin, Luca

2012-01-01

The microbial ecology of the table olive fermentation process is a complex set of dynamics in which the roles of the lactic acid bacteria (LAB) and yeast populations are closely related, and this synergism is of fundamental importance to obtain high quality products. Several studies on the ecology of table olives, both in spontaneous fermentations and in inoculated ones, have focused on the identification and characterization of yeasts, as they play a key role in the definition of the final organoleptic profiles through the production of volatile compounds. Moreover, these are able to promote the growth of LAB, which is responsible for the stabilization of the final product through the acidification activity and the inhibition of the growth of pathogenic bacteria. The current empirical production process of table olives could be improved through the development of mixed starter cultures. These can only be developed after a deep study of the population dynamics of yeasts and LAB by means of molecular methods. Until now, most studies have exploited culture-dependent approaches to define the natural microbiota of brine and olives. These approaches have identified two main species of LAB, namely Lactobacillus plantarum and L. pentosus, while, as far as yeasts are concerned, the most frequently isolated genera are Candida, Pichia, and Saccharomyces. However, there are a few studies in literature in which a culture-independent approach has been employed. This review summarizes the state of the art of the microbial ecology of table olive fermentations and it focuses on the different approaches and molecular methods that have been applied. PMID:22783248

Multiple micro-predators controlling bacterial communities in the environment.

PubMed

Johnke, Julia; Cohen, Yossi; de Leeuw, Marina; Kushmaro, Ariel; Jurkevitch, Edouard; Chatzinotas, Antonis

2014-06-01

Predator-prey interactions are a main issue in ecological theory, including multispecies predator-prey relationships and intraguild predation. This knowledge is mainly based on the study of plants and animals, while its relevance for microorganisms is not well understood. The three key groups of micro-predators include protists, predatory bacteria and bacteriophages. They greatly differ in size, in prey specificity, in hunting strategies and in the resulting population dynamics. Yet, their potential to jointly control bacterial populations and reducing biomass in complex environments such as wastewater treatment plants is vast. Here, we present relevant ecological concepts and recent findings on micropredators, and propose that an integrative approach to predation at the microscale should be developed enabling the exploitation of this potential. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Encyrtid parasitoids of soft scale insects: biology, behavior, and their use in biological control.

PubMed

Kapranas, Apostolos; Tena, Alejandro

2015-01-07

Parasitoids of the hymenopterous family Encyrtidae are one of the most important groups of natural enemies of soft scale insects and have been used extensively in biological control. We summarize existing knowledge of the biology, ecology, and behavior of these parasitoids and how it relates to biological control. Soft scale stage/size and phenology are important determinants of host range and host utilization, which are key aspects in understanding how control by these parasitoids is exerted. Furthermore, the nutritional ecology of encyrtids and their physiological interactions with their hosts affect soft scale insect population dynamics. Lastly, the interactions among encyrtids, heteronomous parasitoids, and ants shape parasitoid species complexes and consequently have a direct impact on the biological control of soft scale insects.

Dynamic Assessment of Microbial Ecology (DAME): A web app for interactive analysis and visualization of microbial sequencing data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dynamic Assessment of Microbial Ecology (DAME) is a shiny-based web application for interactive analysis and visualization of microbial sequencing data. DAME provides researchers not familiar with R programming the ability to access the most current R functions utilized for ecology and gene sequenci...

Focusing ecological research for conservation.

PubMed

Cristescu, Bogdan; Boyce, Mark S

2013-11-01

Ecologists are increasingly actively involved in conservation. We identify five key topics from a broad sweep of ecology that merit research attention to meet conservation needs. We examine questions from landscape ecology, behavioral ecology, ecosystem dynamics, community ecology, and nutrient cycling related to key topics. Based on literature review and publication trend assessment, consultation with colleagues, and roundtable discussions at the 24th International Congress for Conservation Biology, focused research on the following topics could benefit conservation while advancing ecological understanding: 1. Carbon sequestration, requiring increased linkages to biodiversity conservation; 2. Ecological invasiveness, challenging our ability to find solutions to ecological aliens; 3. Individual variation, having applications in the conservation of rare species; 4. Movement of organisms, integrating ecological processes across landscapes and scales and addressing habitat fragmentation; and 5. Trophic-level interactions, driving ecological dynamics at the ecosystem-level. Addressing these will require cross-disciplinary research under the overarching framework of conservation ecology.

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

2012-09-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling

Treesearch

David M. Bell; Daniel R. Schlaepfer

2016-01-01

Although biogeographic patterns are the product of complex ecological processes, the increasing com-plexity of correlative species distribution models (SDMs) is not always motivated by ecological theory,but by model fit. The validity of model projections, such as shifts in a species’ climatic niche, becomesquestionable particularly during extrapolations, such as for...

Evolution and Biogeography of Haemonchus contortus: Linking Faunal Dynamics in Space and Time.

PubMed

Hoberg, E P; Zarlenga, D S

2016-01-01

History is the foundation that informs about the nuances of faunal assembly that are essential in understanding the dynamic nature of the host-parasite interface. All of our knowledge begins and ends with evolution, ecology and biogeography, as these interacting facets determine the history of biodiverse systems. These components, relating to Haemonchus, can inform about the complex history of geographical distribution, host association and the intricacies of host-parasite associations that are played out in physiological and behavioural processes that influence the potential for disease and our capacity for effective control in a rapidly changing world. Origins and evolutionary diversification among species of the genus Haemonchus and Haemonchus contortus occurred in a complex crucible defined by shifts in environmental structure emerging from cycles of climate change and ecological perturbation during the late Tertiary and through the Quaternary. A history of sequential host colonization associated with waves of dispersal bringing assemblages of ungulates from Eurasia into Africa and processes emerging from ecosystems in collision and faunal turnover defined the arena for radiation among 12 recognized species of Haemonchus. Among congeners, the host range for H. contortus is exceptionally broad, including species among artiodactyls of 40 genera representing 5 families (and within 12 tribes of Bovidae). Broad host range is dramatically reflected in the degree to which translocation, introduction and invasion with host switching, has characterized an expanding distribution over time in North America, South America, southern Eurasia, Australia and New Zealand, coincidental with agriculture, husbandry and global colonization by human populations driven particularly by European exploration after the 1500s. African origins in xeric to mesic habitats of the African savannah suggest that historical constraints linked to ecological adaptations (tolerances and developmental thresholds defined by temperature and humidity for larval stages) will be substantial determinants in the potential outcomes for widespread geographical and host colonization which are predicted to unfold over the coming century. Insights about deeper evolutionary events, ecology and biogeography are critical as understanding history informs us about the possible range of responses in complex systems under new regimes of environmental forcing, especially, in this case, ecological perturbation linked to climate change. A deeper history of perturbation is relevant in understanding contemporary systems that are now strongly structured by events of invasion and colonization. The relaxation of abiotic and biotic controls on the occurrence of H. contortus, coincidental with inception and dissemination of anthelmintic resistance may be synergistic, serving to exacerbate challenges to control parasites or to limit the socioeconomic impacts of infection that can influence food security and availability. Studies of haemonchine nematodes contribute directly to an expanding model about the nature of diversity and the evolutionary trajectories for faunal assembly among complex host-parasite systems across considerable spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change.

PubMed

Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P

2010-10-01

Managed relocation (also known as assisted colonization, assisted migration) is one of the more controversial proposals to emerge in the ecological community in recent years. A conservation strategy involving the translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change, managed relocation (MR) has divided many ecologists and conservationists, mostly because of concerns about the potential invasion risk of the relocated species in their new environments. While this is indeed an important consideration in any evaluation of MR, moving species across the landscape in response to predicted climate shifts also raises a number of larger and important ethical and policy challenges that need to be addressed. These include evaluating the implications of a more aggressive approach to species conservation, assessing MR as a broader ecological policy and philosophy that departs from longstanding scientific and management goals focused on preserving ecological integrity, and considering MR within a more comprehensive ethical and policy response to climate change. Given the complexity and novelty of many of the issues at stake in the MR debate, a more dynamic and pragmatic approach to ethical analysis and debate is needed to help ecologists, conservationists, and environmental decision makers come to grips with MR and the emerging ethical challenges of ecological policy and management under global environmental change.

Ecological and evolutionary approaches to managing honeybee disease.

PubMed

Brosi, Berry J; Delaplane, Keith S; Boots, Michael; de Roode, Jacobus C

2017-09-01

Honeybee declines are a serious threat to global agricultural security and productivity. Although multiple factors contribute to these declines, parasites are a key driver. Disease problems in honeybees have intensified in recent years, despite increasing attention to addressing them. Here we argue that we must focus on the principles of disease ecology and evolution to understand disease dynamics, assess the severity of disease threats, and control these threats via honeybee management. We cover the ecological context of honeybee disease, including both host and parasite factors driving current transmission dynamics, and then discuss evolutionary dynamics including how beekeeping management practices may drive selection for more virulent parasites. We then outline how ecological and evolutionary principles can guide disease mitigation in honeybees, including several practical management suggestions for addressing short- and long-term disease dynamics and consequences.

Automated reverse engineering of nonlinear dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Bongard, Josh; Lipson, Hod

2007-01-01

Complex nonlinear dynamics arise in many fields of science and engineering, but uncovering the underlying differential equations directly from observations poses a challenging task. The ability to symbolically model complex networked systems is key to understanding them, an open problem in many disciplines. Here we introduce for the first time a method that can automatically generate symbolic equations for a nonlinear coupled dynamical system directly from time series data. This method is applicable to any system that can be described using sets of ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and assumes that the (possibly noisy) time series of all variables are observable. Previous automated symbolic modeling approaches of coupled physical systems produced linear models or required a nonlinear model to be provided manually. The advance presented here is made possible by allowing the method to model each (possibly coupled) variable separately, intelligently perturbing and destabilizing the system to extract its less observable characteristics, and automatically simplifying the equations during modeling. We demonstrate this method on four simulated and two real systems spanning mechanics, ecology, and systems biology. Unlike numerical models, symbolic models have explanatory value, suggesting that automated “reverse engineering” approaches for model-free symbolic nonlinear system identification may play an increasing role in our ability to understand progressively more complex systems in the future. PMID:17553966

Automated reverse engineering of nonlinear dynamical systems.

PubMed

Bongard, Josh; Lipson, Hod

2007-06-12

Complex nonlinear dynamics arise in many fields of science and engineering, but uncovering the underlying differential equations directly from observations poses a challenging task. The ability to symbolically model complex networked systems is key to understanding them, an open problem in many disciplines. Here we introduce for the first time a method that can automatically generate symbolic equations for a nonlinear coupled dynamical system directly from time series data. This method is applicable to any system that can be described using sets of ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and assumes that the (possibly noisy) time series of all variables are observable. Previous automated symbolic modeling approaches of coupled physical systems produced linear models or required a nonlinear model to be provided manually. The advance presented here is made possible by allowing the method to model each (possibly coupled) variable separately, intelligently perturbing and destabilizing the system to extract its less observable characteristics, and automatically simplifying the equations during modeling. We demonstrate this method on four simulated and two real systems spanning mechanics, ecology, and systems biology. Unlike numerical models, symbolic models have explanatory value, suggesting that automated "reverse engineering" approaches for model-free symbolic nonlinear system identification may play an increasing role in our ability to understand progressively more complex systems in the future.

Is colour polymorphism advantageous to populations and species?

PubMed

Forsman, Anders

2016-06-01

I am writing in response to an article by Bolton, Rollins and Griffith (2015) entitled 'The danger within: the role of genetic, behavioural and ecological factors in population persistence of colour polymorphic species' that was recently published as an Opinion under the NEWS AND VIEWS section in Molecular Ecology. Bolton et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2015, 24, 2907) argue that colour polymorphism may reduce population fitness and increase extinction risk and emphasize that this is contrary to predictions put forward by Forsman et al. (Ecology, 89, 2008, 34) and Wennersten & Forsman (Biological Reviews 87, 2012, 756) that the existence of multiple colour morphs with co-adapted gene complexes and associated trait values may increase the ecological and evolutionary success of polymorphic populations and species. Bolton et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2015, 24, 2907) further state that there is no clear evidence from studies of 'true polymorphic species' that polymorphism promotes population persistence. In response, I (i) challenge their classifications of polymorphisms and revisit the traditional definitions recognizing the dynamic nature of polymorphisms, (ii) review empirical studies that have examined whether and how polymorphism is associated with extinction risk, (iii) discuss the roles of trait correlations between colour pattern and other phenotypic dimensions for population fitness and (iv) highlight that the causes and mechanisms that influence the composition and maintenance of polymorphisms are different from the consequences of the polymorphic condition and how it may impact on aspects of ecological success and long-term persistence of populations and species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The micro and macro of nutrients across biological scales.

PubMed

Warne, Robin W

2014-11-01

During the past decade, we have gained new insights into the profound effects that essential micronutrients and macronutrients have on biological processes ranging from cellular function, to whole-organism performance, to dynamics in ecological communities, as well as to the structure and function of ecosystems. For example, disparities between intake and organismal requirements for specific nutrients are known to strongly affect animal physiological performance and impose trade-offs in the allocations of resources. However, recent findings have demonstrated that life-history allocation trade-offs and even microevolutionary dynamics may often be a result of molecular-level constraints on nutrient and metabolic processing, in which limiting reactants are routed among competing biochemical pathways. In addition, recent work has shown that complex ecological interactions between organismal physiological states such as exposure to environmental stressors and infectious pathogens can alter organismal requirements for, and, processing of, nutrients, and even alter subsequent nutrient cycling in ecosystems. Furthermore, new research is showing that such interactions, coupled with evolutionary and biogeographical constraints on the biosynthesis and availability of essential nutrients and micronutrients play an important, but still under-studied role in the structuring and functioning of ecosystems. The purpose of this introduction to the symposium "The Micro and Macro of Nutrient Effects in Animal Physiology and Ecology" is to briefly review and highlight recent research that has dramatically advanced our understanding of how nutrients in their varied forms profoundly affect and shape ecological and evolutionary processes. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Decay of interspecific avian flock networks along a disturbance gradient in Amazonia.

PubMed

Mokross, Karl; Ryder, Thomas B; Côrtes, Marina Corrêa; Wolfe, Jared D; Stouffer, Philip C

2014-02-07

Our understanding of how anthropogenic habitat change shapes species interactions is in its infancy. This is in large part because analytical approaches such as network theory have only recently been applied to characterize complex community dynamics. Network models are a powerful tool for quantifying how ecological interactions are affected by habitat modification because they provide metrics that quantify community structure and function. Here, we examine how large-scale habitat alteration has affected ecological interactions among mixed-species flocking birds in Amazonian rainforest. These flocks provide a model system for investigating how habitat heterogeneity influences non-trophic interactions and the subsequent social structure of forest-dependent mixed-species bird flocks. We analyse 21 flock interaction networks throughout a mosaic of primary forest, fragments of varying sizes and secondary forest (SF) at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project in central Amazonian Brazil. Habitat type had a strong effect on network structure at the levels of both species and flock. Frequency of associations among species, as summarized by weighted degree, declined with increasing levels of forest fragmentation and SF. At the flock level, clustering coefficients and overall attendance positively correlated with mean vegetation height, indicating a strong effect of habitat structure on flock cohesion and stability. Prior research has shown that trophic interactions are often resilient to large-scale changes in habitat structure because species are ecologically redundant. By contrast, our results suggest that behavioural interactions and the structure of non-trophic networks are highly sensitive to environmental change. Thus, a more nuanced, system-by-system approach may be needed when thinking about the resiliency of ecological networks.

Understanding the individual to implement the ecosystem approach to fisheries management.

PubMed

Ward, Taylor D; Algera, Dirk A; Gallagher, Austin J; Hawkins, Emily; Horodysky, Andrij; Jørgensen, Christian; Killen, Shaun S; McKenzie, David J; Metcalfe, Julian D; Peck, Myron A; Vu, Maria; Cooke, Steven J

2016-01-01

Ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management (EAFMs) have emerged as requisite for sustainable use of fisheries resources. At the same time, however, there is a growing recognition of the degree of variation among individuals within a population, as well as the ecological consequences of this variation. Managing resources at an ecosystem level calls on practitioners to consider evolutionary processes, and ample evidence from the realm of fisheries science indicates that anthropogenic disturbance can drive changes in predominant character traits (e.g. size at maturity). Eco-evolutionary theory suggests that human-induced trait change and the modification of selective regimens might contribute to ecosystem dynamics at a similar magnitude to species extirpation, extinction and ecological dysfunction. Given the dynamic interaction between fisheries and target species via harvest and subsequent ecosystem consequences, we argue that individual diversity in genetic, physiological and behavioural traits are important considerations under EAFMs. Here, we examine the role of individual variation in a number of contexts relevant to fisheries management, including the potential ecological effects of rapid trait change. Using select examples, we highlight the extent of phenotypic diversity of individuals, as well as the ecological constraints on such diversity. We conclude that individual phenotypic diversity is a complex phenomenon that needs to be considered in EAFMs, with the ultimate realization that maintaining or increasing individual trait diversity may afford not only species, but also entire ecosystems, with enhanced resilience to environmental perturbations. Put simply, individuals are the foundation from which population- and ecosystem-level traits emerge and are therefore of central importance for the ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management.

Understanding the individual to implement the ecosystem approach to fisheries management

PubMed Central

Ward, Taylor D.; Algera, Dirk A.; Gallagher, Austin J.; Hawkins, Emily; Horodysky, Andrij; Jørgensen, Christian; Killen, Shaun S.; McKenzie, David J.; Metcalfe, Julian D.; Peck, Myron A.; Vu, Maria; Cooke, Steven J.

2016-01-01

Ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management (EAFMs) have emerged as requisite for sustainable use of fisheries resources. At the same time, however, there is a growing recognition of the degree of variation among individuals within a population, as well as the ecological consequences of this variation. Managing resources at an ecosystem level calls on practitioners to consider evolutionary processes, and ample evidence from the realm of fisheries science indicates that anthropogenic disturbance can drive changes in predominant character traits (e.g. size at maturity). Eco-evolutionary theory suggests that human-induced trait change and the modification of selective regimens might contribute to ecosystem dynamics at a similar magnitude to species extirpation, extinction and ecological dysfunction. Given the dynamic interaction between fisheries and target species via harvest and subsequent ecosystem consequences, we argue that individual diversity in genetic, physiological and behavioural traits are important considerations under EAFMs. Here, we examine the role of individual variation in a number of contexts relevant to fisheries management, including the potential ecological effects of rapid trait change. Using select examples, we highlight the extent of phenotypic diversity of individuals, as well as the ecological constraints on such diversity. We conclude that individual phenotypic diversity is a complex phenomenon that needs to be considered in EAFMs, with the ultimate realization that maintaining or increasing individual trait diversity may afford not only species, but also entire ecosystems, with enhanced resilience to environmental perturbations. Put simply, individuals are the foundation from which population- and ecosystem-level traits emerge and are therefore of central importance for the ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management. PMID:27293757

Biodiversity matters in feedbacks between climate change and air quality: a study using an individual-based model.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Shuman, Jacquelyn; Shugart, Herman H; Lerdau, Manuel T

2018-03-30

Air quality is closely associated with climate change via the biosphere because plants release large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOC) that mediate both gaseous pollutants and aerosol dynamics. Earlier studies, which considered only leaf physiology and simply scale up from leaf-level enhancements of emissions, suggest that climate warming enhances whole forest VOC emissions, and these increased VOC emissions aggravate ozone pollution and secondary organic aerosol formation. Using an individual-based forest VOC emissions model, UVAFME-VOC, that simulates system-level emissions by explicitly simulating forest community dynamics to the individual tree level, ecological competition among the individuals of differing size and age, and radiative transfer and leaf function through the canopy, we find that climate warming only sometimes stimulates isoprene emissions (the single largest source of non-methane hydrocarbon) in a southeastern U.S. forest. These complex patterns result from the combination of higher temperatures' stimulating emissions at the leaf level but decreasing the abundance of isoprene-emitting taxa at the community level by causing a decline in the abundance of isoprene-emitting species (Quercus spp.). This ecological effect eventually outweighs the physiological one, thus reducing overall emissions. Such reduced emissions have far-reaching implications for the climate-air-quality relationships that have been established on the paradigm of warming-enhancement VOC emissions from vegetation. This local scale modeling study suggests that community ecology rather than only individual physiology should be integrated into future studies of biosphere-climate-chemistry interactions. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

The dynamics of ant mosaics in tropical rainforests characterized using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm.

PubMed

Dejean, Alain; Azémar, Frédéric; Céréghino, Régis; Leponce, Maurice; Corbara, Bruno; Orivel, Jérôme; Compin, Arthur

2016-08-01

Ants, the most abundant taxa among canopy-dwelling animals in tropical rainforests, are mostly represented by territorially dominant arboreal ants (TDAs) whose territories are distributed in a mosaic pattern (arboreal ant mosaics). Large TDA colonies regulate insect herbivores, with implications for forestry and agronomy. What generates these mosaics in vegetal formations, which are dynamic, still needs to be better understood. So, from empirical research based on 3 Cameroonian tree species (Lophira alata, Ochnaceae; Anthocleista vogelii, Gentianaceae; and Barteria fistulosa, Passifloraceae), we used the Self-Organizing Map (SOM, neural network) to illustrate the succession of TDAs as their host trees grow and age. The SOM separated the trees by species and by size for L. alata, which can reach 60 m in height and live several centuries. An ontogenic succession of TDAs from sapling to mature trees is shown, and some ecological traits are highlighted for certain TDAs. Also, because the SOM permits the analysis of data with many zeroes with no effect of outliers on the overall scatterplot distributions, we obtained ecological information on rare species. Finally, the SOM permitted us to show that functional groups cannot be selected at the genus level as congeneric species can have very different ecological niches, something particularly true for Crematogaster spp., which include a species specifically associated with B. fistulosa, nondominant species and TDAs. Therefore, the SOM permitted the complex relationships between TDAs and their growing host trees to be analyzed, while also providing new information on the ecological traits of the ant species involved. © 2015 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The -omics Era- Toward a Systems-Level Understanding of Streptomyces

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhan; Gu, Jianying; Du, Yi-Ling; Li, Yong-Quan; Wang, Yufeng

2011-01-01

Streptomyces is a group of soil bacteria of medicinal, economic, ecological, and industrial importance. It is renowned for its complex biology in gene regulation, antibiotic production, morphological differentiation, and stress response. In this review, we provide an overview of the recent advances in Streptomyces biology inspired by -omics based high throughput technologies. In this post-genomic era, vast amounts of data have been integrated to provide significant new insights into the fundamental mechanisms of system control and regulation dynamics of Streptomyces. PMID:22379394

The ecologies of community caring.

PubMed

Bent, K N

1999-06-01

Caring has been called the interactive exemplar of nursing in that it relates other foundational concepts of person, health, and environment within the profession and discipline. However, to reflect the dynamic praxis of knowing, being, and doing that is community health nursing, caring must include a focus on communities, the environment, and the global society. The concepts of community and community interventions remain complex and difficult, thus, community caring remains unclear. This article will explore the concept and offer a model of caring praxis in community health nursing.

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

2018-05-29

To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecohydrological interfaces as hot spots of ecosystem processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Stefan; Lewandowski, Jörg; Grimm, Nancy B.; Hannah, David M.; Pinay, Gilles; McDonald, Karlie; Martí, Eugènia; Argerich, Alba; Pfister, Laurent; Klaus, Julian; Battin, Tom; Larned, Scott T.; Schelker, Jacob; Fleckenstein, Jan; Schmidt, Christian; Rivett, Michael O.; Watts, Glenn; Sabater, Francesc; Sorolla, Albert; Turk, Valentina

2017-08-01

The movement of water, matter, organisms, and energy can be altered substantially at ecohydrological interfaces, the dynamic transition zones that often develop within ecotones or boundaries between adjacent ecosystems. Interdisciplinary research over the last two decades has indicated that ecohydrological interfaces are often "hot spots" of ecological, biogeochemical, and hydrological processes and may provide refuge for biota during extreme events. Ecohydrological interfaces can have significant impact on global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, biodiversity, pollutant removal, and ecosystem resilience to disturbance. The organizational principles (i.e., the drivers and controls) of spatially and temporally variable processes at ecohydrological interfaces are poorly understood and require the integrated analysis of hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes. Our rudimentary understanding of the interactions between different drivers and controls critically limits our ability to predict complex system responses to change. In this paper, we explore similarities and contrasts in the functioning of diverse freshwater ecohydrological interfaces across spatial and temporal scales. We use this comparison to develop an integrated, interdisciplinary framework, including a roadmap for analyzing ecohydrological processes and their interactions in ecosystems. We argue that, in order to fully account for their nonlinear process dynamics, ecohydrological interfaces need to be conceptualized as unique, spatially and temporally dynamic entities, which represents a step change from their current representation as boundary conditions at investigated ecosystems.

Wild-captive interactions and economics drive dynamics of Asian elephants in Laos.

PubMed

Maurer, Gilles; Rashford, Benjamin S; Chanthavong, Vatsana; Mulot, Baptiste; Gimenez, Olivier

2017-11-01

The interactions between wild and captive populations of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) persist in most countries of the species distribution, notably through the reproduction between captive females and wild males. However, these complex interactions have been poorly studied, despite their relevance for conservation of this endangered species. Laos has a centuries-long tradition of raising Asian elephants. Besides being cultural icons, captive elephants are inextricably linked to economics through their work in forestry. Using an ecological-economic model, we investigated the effect of socio-economic strategies on fecundity of the Lao population whose dynamics is shaped by human practices. We demonstrated that fecundity is impacted by: i) the dynamics of the wild elephant pool through mating of captive females by wild males, and ii) the financial incentive of elephant owners to breed their animals. As a result, we expect fecundity to rise in response to increases in elephant prices. The captive population will tend towards an asymptotic limit determined by the wild pool growth rate. However, the population will tend to extinction if exports continue. Our ecological-economic approach, by accounting for economic incentives, allows us to predict new equilibria that can serve as a baseline for designing sustainable management strategies for the species.

Developing predictive systems models to address complexity and relevance for ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Forbes, Valery E; Calow, Peter

2013-07-01

Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are not used as well as they could be in risk management. Part of the problem is that they often lack ecological relevance; that is, they fail to grasp necessary ecological complexities. Adding realism and complexity can be difficult and costly. We argue that predictive systems models (PSMs) can provide a way of capturing complexity and ecological relevance cost-effectively. However, addressing complexity and ecological relevance is only part of the problem. Ecological risk assessments often fail to meet the needs of risk managers by not providing assessments that relate to protection goals and by expressing risk in ratios that cannot be weighed against the costs of interventions. Once more, PSMs can be designed to provide outputs in terms of value-relevant effects that are modulated against exposure and that can provide a better basis for decision making than arbitrary ratios or threshold values. Recent developments in the modeling and its potential for implementation by risk assessors and risk managers are beginning to demonstrate how PSMs can be practically applied in risk assessment and the advantages that doing so could have. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Management of a stage-structured insect pest: an application of approximate optimization.

PubMed

Hackett, Sean C; Bonsall, Michael B

2018-06-01

Ecological decision problems frequently require the optimization of a sequence of actions over time where actions may have both immediate and downstream effects. Dynamic programming can solve such problems only if the dimensionality is sufficiently low. Approximate dynamic programming (ADP) provides a suite of methods applicable to problems of arbitrary complexity at the expense of guaranteed optimality. The most easily generalized method is the look-ahead policy: a brute-force algorithm that identifies reasonable actions by constructing and solving a series of temporally truncated approximations of the full problem over a defined planning horizon. We develop and apply this approach to a pest management problem inspired by the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata. The model aims to minimize the cumulative costs of management actions and medfly-induced losses over a single 16-week season. The medfly population is stage-structured and grows continuously while management decisions are made at discrete, weekly intervals. For each week, the model chooses between inaction, insecticide application, or one of six sterile insect release ratios. Look-ahead policy performance is evaluated over a range of planning horizons, two levels of crop susceptibility to medfly and three levels of pesticide persistence. In all cases, the actions proposed by the look-ahead policy are contrasted to those of a myopic policy that minimizes costs over only the current week. We find that look-ahead policies always out-performed a myopic policy and decision quality is sensitive to the temporal distribution of costs relative to the planning horizon: it is beneficial to extend the planning horizon when it excludes pertinent costs. However, longer planning horizons may reduce decision quality when major costs are resolved imminently. ADP methods such as the look-ahead-policy-based approach developed here render questions intractable to dynamic programming amenable to inference but should be applied carefully as their flexibility comes at the expense of guaranteed optimality. However, given the complexity of many ecological management problems, the capacity to propose a strategy that is "good enough" using a more representative problem formulation may be preferable to an optimal strategy derived from a simplified model. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A membrane computing simulator of trans-hierarchical antibiotic resistance evolution dynamics in nested ecological compartments (ARES).

PubMed

Campos, Marcelino; Llorens, Carlos; Sempere, José M; Futami, Ricardo; Rodriguez, Irene; Carrasco, Purificación; Capilla, Rafael; Latorre, Amparo; Coque, Teresa M; Moya, Andres; Baquero, Fernando

2015-08-05

Antibiotic resistance is a major biomedical problem upon which public health systems demand solutions to construe the dynamics and epidemiological risk of resistant bacteria in anthropogenically-altered environments. The implementation of computable models with reciprocity within and between levels of biological organization (i.e. essential nesting) is central for studying antibiotic resistances. Antibiotic resistance is not just the result of antibiotic-driven selection but more properly the consequence of a complex hierarchy of processes shaping the ecology and evolution of the distinct subcellular, cellular and supra-cellular vehicles involved in the dissemination of resistance genes. Such a complex background motivated us to explore the P-system standards of membrane computing an innovative natural computing formalism that abstracts the notion of movement across membranes to simulate antibiotic resistance evolution processes across nested levels of micro- and macro-environmental organization in a given ecosystem. In this article, we introduce ARES (Antibiotic Resistance Evolution Simulator) a software device that simulates P-system model scenarios with five types of nested computing membranes oriented to emulate a hierarchy of eco-biological compartments, i.e. a) peripheral ecosystem; b) local environment; c) reservoir of supplies; d) animal host; and e) host's associated bacterial organisms (microbiome). Computational objects emulating molecular entities such as plasmids, antibiotic resistance genes, antimicrobials, and/or other substances can be introduced into this framework and may interact and evolve together with the membranes, according to a set of pre-established rules and specifications. ARES has been implemented as an online server and offers additional tools for storage and model editing and downstream analysis. The stochastic nature of the P-system model implemented in ARES explicitly links within and between host dynamics into a simulation, with feedback reciprocity among the different units of selection influenced by antibiotic exposure at various ecological levels. ARES offers the possibility of modeling predictive multilevel scenarios of antibiotic resistance evolution that can be interrogated, edited and re-simulated if necessary, with different parameters, until a correct model description of the process in the real world is convincingly approached. ARES can be accessed at http://gydb.org/ares.

a System Dynamics Approach for Looking at the Human and Environmental Interactions of Community-Based Irrigation Systems in New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa, C. G.; Tidwell, V. C.

2012-12-01

In the arid southwestern United States community water management systems have adapted to cope with climate variability and with socio-cultural and economic changes that have occurred since the establishment of these systems more than 300 years ago. In New Mexico, the community-based irrigation systems were established by Spanish settlers and have endured climate variability in the form of low levels of precipitation and have prevailed over important socio-political changes including the transfer of territory between Spain and Mexico, and between Mexico and the United States. Because of their inherent nature of integrating land and water use with society involvement these community-based systems have multiple and complex economic, ecological, and cultural interactions. Current urban population growth and more variable climate conditions are adding pressure to the survival of these systems. We are conducting a multi-disciplinary research project that focuses on characterizing these intrinsically complex human and natural interactions in three community-based irrigation systems in northern New Mexico. We are using a system dynamics approach to integrate different hydrological, ecological, socio-cultural and economic aspects of these three irrigation systems. Coupled with intensive field data collection, we are building a system dynamics model that will enable us to simulate important linkages and interactions between environmental and human elements occurring in each of these water management systems. We will test different climate variability and population growth scenarios and the expectation is that we will be able to identify critical tipping points of these systems. Results from this model can be used to inform policy recommendations relevant to the environment and to urban and agricultural land use planning in the arid southwestern United States.

A framework for complexity in palliative care: A qualitative study with patients, family carers and professionals.

PubMed

Pask, Sophie; Pinto, Cathryn; Bristowe, Katherine; van Vliet, Liesbeth; Nicholson, Caroline; Evans, Catherine J; George, Rob; Bailey, Katharine; Davies, Joanna M; Guo, Ping; Daveson, Barbara A; Higginson, Irene J; Murtagh, Fliss Em

2018-06-01

Palliative care patients are often described as complex but evidence on complexity is limited. We need to understand complexity, including at individual patient-level, to define specialist palliative care, characterise palliative care populations and meaningfully compare interventions/outcomes. To explore palliative care stakeholders' views on what makes a patient more or less complex and insights on capturing complexity at patient-level. In-depth qualitative interviews, analysed using Framework analysis. Semi-structured interviews across six UK centres with patients, family, professionals, managers and senior leads, purposively sampled by experience, background, location and setting (hospital, hospice and community). 65 participants provided an understanding of complexity, which extended far beyond the commonly used physical, psychological, social and spiritual domains. Complexity included how patients interact with family/professionals, how services' respond to needs and societal perspectives on care. 'Pre-existing', 'cumulative' and 'invisible' complexity are further important dimensions to delivering effective palliative and end-of-life care. The dynamic nature of illness and needs over time was also profoundly influential. Adapting Bronfenbrenner's Ecological Systems Theory, we categorised findings into the microsystem (person, needs and characteristics), chronosystem (dynamic influences of time), mesosystem (interactions with family/health professionals), exosystem (palliative care services/systems) and macrosystem (societal influences). Stakeholders found it acceptable to capture complexity at the patient-level, with perceived benefits for improving palliative care resource allocation. Our conceptual framework encompasses additional elements beyond physical, psychological, social and spiritual domains and advances systematic understanding of complexity within the context of palliative care. This framework helps capture patient-level complexity and target resource provision in specialist palliative care.

Modeling and Remote Sensing of Surface Water Dynamics in the Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Y. N.

2017-12-01

The Mekong river is one of the most complex river systems in the world that is shared by six nations in Southeast Asia. The river still remains relatively undammed (most existing dams are in the tributaries and are small), and its hydrology today is dominated by large natural flow variations that support the highly productive agricultural and riverine ecological systems; however, this is changing due to the alterations in land use and construction of new dams both in the tributaries the mainstream (16 mainstream and 110 tributary dams are planned to be completed by 2030). Understanding the changes in surface water dynamics is therefore crucial to provide realistic future predictions of changes in downstream floodplain and riverine ecology due to the construction of dams in the upstream. In this study, we use an integrated hydrological model and remote sensing data to examine the critical role of surface water systems in modulating the river-floodplain ecology in the lower reach of the basin, with a focus on the Tonle Sap lake. We present results on the changes in the seasonality and long-term trend in river-floodplain inundation extent over the past few decades. These results provide new insights on the changing hydrology of the Mekong and important implications for potential future hydrologic changes under accelerating human activities and climate change.

Public good dynamics drive evolution of iron acquisition strategies in natural bacterioplankton populations.

PubMed

Cordero, Otto X; Ventouras, Laure-Anne; DeLong, Edward F; Polz, Martin F

2012-12-04

A common strategy among microbes living in iron-limited environments is the secretion of siderophores, which can bind poorly soluble iron and make it available to cells via active transport mechanisms. Such siderophore-iron complexes can be thought of as public goods that can be exploited by local communities and drive diversification, for example by the evolution of "cheating." However, it is unclear whether bacterial populations in the environment form stable enough communities such that social interactions significantly impact evolutionary dynamics. Here we show that public good games drive the evolution of iron acquisition strategies in wild populations of marine bacteria. We found that within nonclonal but ecologically cohesive genotypic clusters of closely related Vibrionaceae, only an intermediate percentage of genotypes are able to produce siderophores. Nonproducers within these clusters exhibited selective loss of siderophore biosynthetic pathways, whereas siderophore transport mechanisms were retained, suggesting that these nonproducers can act as cheaters that benefit from siderophore producers in their local environment. In support of this hypothesis, these nonproducers in iron-limited media suffer a significant decrease in growth, which can be alleviated by siderophores, presumably owing to the retention of transport mechanisms. Moreover, using ecological data of resource partitioning, we found that cheating coevolves with the ecological specialization toward association with larger particles in the water column, suggesting that these can harbor stable enough communities for dependencies among organisms to evolve.

Fluvial biogeomorphology in the Anthropocene: Managing rivers and managing landscapes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viles, Heather

2015-04-01

Biogeomorphology considers the many, and often complex, interactions between ecological and geomorphological processes. The concept of the Anthropocene deserves greater attention by scientists working on biogeomorphology, as will be demonstrated in this talk though a focus on fluvial environments. Rivers and river systems have been the subject of long-term human interference and management across the world, often in the form of direct manipulation of biogeomorphic interactions. Up to the present three broadly-defined phases of the Anthropocene can be identified - the Palaeoanthropocene, the Industrial Revolution and the Great Acceleration. Each of these broad phases of the Anthropocene has different implications for fluvial biogeomorphology and river management. The nature and dynamics of tufa-depositing systems provide good examples of the differing Anthropocene situations and will be focused on in this talk. We may now be entering a fourth phase of the Anthropocene called 'Earth system stewardship'. In terms of better understanding and managing the biogeomorphic interactions within rivers in such a phase, an improved conceptualisation of the Anthropocene and the complex web of interactions between human, ecological and geomorphological processes is needed.

Simulating forest management and its effect on landscape pattern

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson

2017-01-01

Landscapes are characterized by their structure (the spatial arrangement of landscape elements), their ecological function (how ecological processes operate within that structure), and the dynamics of change (disturbance and recovery). Thus, understanding the dynamic nature of landscapes and predicting their future dynamics are of particular emphasis. Landscape change...

Ecosystem Restoration: Fact or Fancy?

Treesearch

John A. Stanturf; Callie J. Schweitzer; Stephen H. Schoenholtz; James P. Barnett; Charles K. McMahon; Donald J. Tomszak

1998-01-01

Ecological restoration is generally accepted as the reestablishment of natural ecological processes that produce certain dynamic ecosystem properties of structure, function, and processes. But restore to what? The most frequently used conceptual model for the restoration process is the shift of conditions from some current (degraded) dynamic state to some past dynamic...

Robust hierarchical state-space models reveal diel variation in travel rates of migrating leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Jonsen, Ian D; Myers, Ransom A; James, Michael C

2006-09-01

1. Biological and statistical complexity are features common to most ecological data that hinder our ability to extract meaningful patterns using conventional tools. Recent work on implementing modern statistical methods for analysis of such ecological data has focused primarily on population dynamics but other types of data, such as animal movement pathways obtained from satellite telemetry, can also benefit from the application of modern statistical tools. 2. We develop a robust hierarchical state-space approach for analysis of multiple satellite telemetry pathways obtained via the Argos system. State-space models are time-series methods that allow unobserved states and biological parameters to be estimated from data observed with error. We show that the approach can reveal important patterns in complex, noisy data where conventional methods cannot. 3. Using the largest Atlantic satellite telemetry data set for critically endangered leatherback turtles, we show that the diel pattern in travel rates of these turtles changes over different phases of their migratory cycle. While foraging in northern waters the turtles show similar travel rates during day and night, but on their southward migration to tropical waters travel rates are markedly faster during the day. These patterns are generally consistent with diving data, and may be related to changes in foraging behaviour. Interestingly, individuals that migrate southward to breed generally show higher daytime travel rates than individuals that migrate southward in a non-breeding year. 4. Our approach is extremely flexible and can be applied to many ecological analyses that use complex, sequential data.

Regional syndromes: towards a dynamical classification of social-ecological sustainability challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyke, James; Dearing, John; Zhang, Enlou; Rong, Wang; Zhang, Ke

2015-04-01

Schellnhuber et al (1997) first presented the concept of social-ecological syndromes as a means of mapping sustainability challenges facing modern regions to sets of sub-systems. They argued that the great diversity of global social-ecological systems could be represented as different combinations from a much smaller number of patterns of sub-systems. Here, we explore the possibility of extending this idea to an empirical and dynamical classification of system functioning, such as changes in the strength of connectivity, coupling between sub-systems and emergent phenomena. To demonstrate this approach we combine multi-decadal datasets for social, economic and biophysical changes from two contrasting regions in China. This allows us to reconstruct the evolution of system functioning in terms of regulating and provisioning ecosystem services. Climate records and political and policy time-lines provide insight about endogenous and exogenous drivers. Our findings show similar patterns in both regions of long-term trade-off between rising provisioning services and declining regulating services, but with important regional differences. In eastern China, the upward trajectory in provisioning services is strongly linked to the history of agricultural policy reforms but losses of regulating services are more an emergent phenomenon. In contrast, in southwest China, trajectories of provisioning and regulating services are both linked strongly to policy and development initiatives. In both regions, the last few years see the long term trade-off breaking down with provisioning services declining or remaining stationary while losses of regulating services continue to decline. Evidence exists in both regions that critical transitions have been crossed in some ecosystems. The strength of coupling between the socio-economic and biophysical sub-systems also remains strong and shows no sign of de-coupling in either region as required for sustainability. We discuss how our findings point the way towards the creation of a typology of syndromes that could, in principle, be applied worldwide. This approach would respect the inherent complexity and emergent properties of socio-ecological systems whilst avoiding the creation of complex models and representations that may prove to be as hard to understand as the real-world target system.

Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems.

PubMed

Ghadami, Amin; Gourgou, Eleni; Epureanu, Bogdan I

2018-06-18

Anticipating critical transitions in complex ecological and living systems is an important need because it is often difficult to restore a system to its pre-transition state once the transition occurs. Recent studies demonstrate that several indicators based on changes in ecological time series can indicate that the system is approaching an impending transition. An exciting question is, however, whether we can predict more characteristics of the future system stability using measurements taken away from the transition. We address this question by introducing a model-less forecasting method to forecast catastrophic transition of an experimental ecological system. The experiment is based on the dynamics of a yeast population, which is known to exhibit a catastrophic transition as the environment deteriorates. By measuring the system's response to perturbations prior to transition, we forecast the distance to the upcoming transition, the type of the transition (i.e., catastrophic/non-catastrophic) and the future equilibrium points within a range near the transition. Experimental results suggest a strong potential for practical applicability of this approach for ecological systems which are at risk of catastrophic transitions, where there is a pressing need for information about upcoming thresholds.

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE PAGES

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.; ...

2017-09-18

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

An Institutional Mechanism for Assortment in an Ecology of Games

PubMed Central

Smaldino, Paul E.; Lubell, Mark

2011-01-01

Recent research has revived Long's “ecology of games” model to analyze how social actors cooperate in the context of multiple political and social games. However, there is still a paucity of theoretical work that considers the mechanisms by which large-scale cooperation can be promoted in a dynamic institutional landscape, in which actors can join new games and leave old ones. This paper develops an agent-based model of an ecology of games where agents participate in multiple public goods games. In addition to contribution decisions, the agents can leave and join different games, and these processes are de-coupled. We show that the payoff for cooperation is greater than for defection when limits to the number of actors per game (“capacity constraints”) structure the population in ways that allow cooperators to cluster, independent of any complex individual-level mechanisms such as reputation or punishment. Our model suggests that capacity constraints are one effective mechanism for producing positive assortment and increasing cooperation in an ecology of games. The results suggest an important trade-off between the inclusiveness of policy processes and cooperation: Fully inclusive policy processes reduce the chances of cooperation. PMID:21850249

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, M.; Wootton, J.T.; Doak, D.F.; Emmerson, M.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (??25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

State-space models’ dirty little secrets: even simple linear Gaussian models can have estimation problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger-Méthé, Marie; Field, Chris; Albertsen, Christoffer M.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Lewis, Mark A.; Jonsen, Ian D.; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2016-05-01

State-space models (SSMs) are increasingly used in ecology to model time-series such as animal movement paths and population dynamics. This type of hierarchical model is often structured to account for two levels of variability: biological stochasticity and measurement error. SSMs are flexible. They can model linear and nonlinear processes using a variety of statistical distributions. Recent ecological SSMs are often complex, with a large number of parameters to estimate. Through a simulation study, we show that even simple linear Gaussian SSMs can suffer from parameter- and state-estimation problems. We demonstrate that these problems occur primarily when measurement error is larger than biological stochasticity, the condition that often drives ecologists to use SSMs. Using an animal movement example, we show how these estimation problems can affect ecological inference. Biased parameter estimates of a SSM describing the movement of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) result in overestimating their energy expenditure. We suggest potential solutions, but show that it often remains difficult to estimate parameters. While SSMs are powerful tools, they can give misleading results and we urge ecologists to assess whether the parameters can be estimated accurately before drawing ecological conclusions from their results.

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

PubMed Central

Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara A.; Chaffin, Brian C.; (Tom) Arnold, Craig A.; Fremier, Alexander K.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Craig, Robin Kundis; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark C.; Hamm, Joseph A.; Nemec, Kristine; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2018-01-01

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change. PMID:29780427

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems.

PubMed

Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara A; Chaffin, Brian C; Tom Arnold, Craig A; Fremier, Alexander K; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Craig, Robin Kundis; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E; Allen, Craig R; Benson, Melinda H; Morrison, Ryan R; Stone, Mark C; Hamm, Joseph A; Nemec, Kristine; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-03-17

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara; Chaffin, Brian C.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Fremier, Alexander K.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Kundis Craig, Robin; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark; Hamm, Joseph A.; Nemec, Kristine T.; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-01-01

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

Ecological and evolutionary approaches to managing honey bee disease

PubMed Central

Brosi, Berry J.; Delaplane, Keith S.; Boots, Michael; de Roode, Jacobus C.

2017-01-01

Honey bee declines are a serious threat to global agricultural security and productivity. While multiple factors contribute to these declines, parasites are a key driver. Disease problems in honey bees have intensified in recent years, despite increasing attention to addressing them. Here we argue that we must focus on the principles of disease ecology and evolution to understand disease dynamics, assess the severity of disease threats, and manage these threats via honey bee management. We cover the ecological context of honey bee disease, including both host and parasite factors driving current transmission dynamics, and then discuss evolutionary dynamics including how beekeeping management practices may drive selection for more virulent parasites. We then outline how ecological and evolutionary principles can guide disease mitigation in honey bees, including several practical management suggestions for addressing short- and long-term disease dynamics and consequences. PMID:29046562

Evaluating the Spatio-Temporal Factors that Structure Network Parameters of Plant-Herbivore Interactions

PubMed Central

López-Carretero, Antonio; Díaz-Castelazo, Cecilia; Boege, Karina; Rico-Gray, Víctor

2014-01-01

Despite the dynamic nature of ecological interactions, most studies on species networks offer static representations of their structure, constraining our understanding of the ecological mechanisms involved in their spatio-temporal stability. This is the first study to evaluate plant-herbivore interaction networks on a small spatio-temporal scale. Specifically, we simultaneously assessed the effect of host plant availability, habitat complexity and seasonality on the structure of plant-herbivore networks in a coastal tropical ecosystem. Our results revealed that changes in the host plant community resulting from seasonality and habitat structure are reflected not only in the herbivore community, but also in the emergent properties (network parameters) of the plant-herbivore interaction network such as connectance, selectiveness and modularity. Habitat conditions and periods that are most stressful favored the presence of less selective and susceptible herbivore species, resulting in increased connectance within networks. In contrast, the high degree of selectivennes (i.e. interaction specialization) and modularity of the networks under less stressful conditions was promoted by the diversification in resource use by herbivores. By analyzing networks at a small spatio-temporal scale we identified the ecological factors structuring this network such as habitat complexity and seasonality. Our research offers new evidence on the role of abiotic and biotic factors in the variation of the properties of species interaction networks. PMID:25340790

An integrative model of evolutionary covariance: a symposium on body shape in fishes.

PubMed

Walker, Jeffrey A

2010-12-01

A major direction of current and future biological research is to understand how multiple, interacting functional systems coordinate in producing a body that works. This understanding is complicated by the fact that organisms need to work well in multiple environments, with both predictable and unpredictable environmental perturbations. Furthermore, organismal design reflects a history of past environments and not a plan for future environments. How complex, interacting functional systems evolve, then, is a truly grand challenge. In accepting the challenge, an integrative model of evolutionary covariance is developed. The model combines quantitative genetics, functional morphology/physiology, and functional ecology. The model is used to convene scientists ranging from geneticists, to physiologists, to ecologists, to engineers to facilitate the emergence of body shape in fishes as a model system for understanding how complex, interacting functional systems develop and evolve. Body shape of fish is a complex morphology that (1) results from many developmental paths and (2) functions in many different behaviors. Understanding the coordination and evolution of the many paths from genes to body shape, body shape to function, and function to a working fish body in a dynamic environment is now possible given new technologies from genetics to engineering and new theoretical models that integrate the different levels of biological organization (from genes to ecology).

Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2008-01-01

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

Ecological and Dynamical Study of the Creative Process and Affects of Scientific Students Working in Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peilloux, Aurélien; Botella, Marion

2016-01-01

Although creativity has drawn the attention of researchers during the past century, collaborative processes have barely been investigated. In this article, the collective dimension of a creative process is investigated, based on a dynamic and ecological approach that includes an affective component. "Dynamic" means that the creative…

Land-use change and infectious disease in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, M. C.; Ericksen, P. J.; Mohamed, A. Ben; Connor, S. J.

Land-use change has been associated with changes in the dynamics of infectious disease in West Africa. Here we describe the complex interactions of land-use change with three diseases (both vector- and non-vector-borne) of considerable public health significance in this region, namely, malaria and irrigation; epidemic meningitis and land degradation; onchocerciasis and deforestation. We highlight the confounding effect of climate variability, which acts as a driver of both land-use change and human health. We conclude, as have others, that the scale of observation always matters, and complex and dynamic feedbacks among social-ecological systems are not easily teased apart. We suggest that in order to establish the causal chain of interactions between land-use change and human health outcomes two approaches are necessary. The first is to have a thorough understanding of the aetiology of disease and the specific mechanisms by which land-use and climate variability affect the transmission of pathogens. This is achieved by focused, detailed studies encompassing a wide range of potential drivers, which are inevitably small scale and often cover short time periods. The second consists of large-scale studies of statistical associations between transmission indices or health outcomes and environmental variables stratified by known ecological or socio-economic confounders, and sufficient in size to overcome local biases in results. Such research activities need to be designed to inform each other if we are to develop predictive models for monitoring these diseases and to develop integrated programs for human health and sustainable land use.

Using computational fluid dynamics to test functional and ecological hypotheses in fossil taxa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Imran

2016-04-01

Reconstructing how ancient organisms moved and fed is a major focus of study in palaeontology. Traditionally, this has been hampered by a lack of objective data on the functional morphology of extinct species, especially those without a clear modern analogue. However, cutting-edge techniques for characterizing specimens digitally and in three dimensions, coupled with state-of-the-art computer models, now provide a robust framework for testing functional and ecological hypotheses even in problematic fossil taxa. One such approach is computational fluid dynamics (CFD), a method for simulating fluid flows around objects that has primarily been applied to complex engineering-design problems. Here, I will present three case studies of CFD applied to fossil taxa, spanning a range of specimen sizes, taxonomic groups and geological ages. First, I will show how CFD enabled a rigorous test of hypothesized feeding modes in an enigmatic Ediacaran organism with three-fold symmetry, revealing previously unappreciated complexity of pre-Cambrian ecosystems. Second, I will show how CFD was used to evaluate hydrodynamic performance and feeding in Cambrian stem-group echinoderms, shedding light on the probable feeding strategy of the latest common ancestor of all deuterostomes. Third, I will show how CFD allowed us to explore the link between form and function in Mesozoic ichthyosaurs. These case studies serve to demonstrate the enormous potential of CFD for addressing long-standing hypotheses for a variety of fossil taxa, opening up an exciting new avenue in palaeontological studies of functional morphology.

Parental effects in ecology and evolution: mechanisms, processes and implications

PubMed Central

Badyaev, Alexander V.; Uller, Tobias

2009-01-01

As is the case with any metaphor, parental effects mean different things to different biologists—from developmental induction of novel phenotypic variation to an evolved adaptation, and from epigenetic transference of essential developmental resources to a stage of inheritance and ecological succession. Such a diversity of perspectives illustrates the composite nature of parental effects that, depending on the stage of their expression and whether they are considered a pattern or a process, combine the elements of developmental induction, homeostasis, natural selection, epigenetic inheritance and historical persistence. Here, we suggest that by emphasizing the complexity of causes and influences in developmental systems and by making explicit the links between development, natural selection and inheritance, the study of parental effects enables deeper understanding of developmental dynamics of life cycles and provides a unique opportunity to explicitly integrate development and evolution. We highlight these perspectives by placing parental effects in a wider evolutionary framework and suggest that far from being only an evolved static outcome of natural selection, a distinct channel of transmission between parents and offspring, or a statistical abstraction, parental effects on development enable evolution by natural selection by reliably transferring developmental resources needed to reconstruct, maintain and modify genetically inherited components of the phenotype. The view of parental effects as an essential and dynamic part of an evolutionary continuum unifies mechanisms behind the origination, modification and historical persistence of organismal form and function, and thus brings us closer to a more realistic understanding of life's complexity and diversity. PMID:19324619

Application of two- and three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics models to complex ecological stream flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yi; Diplas, Panayiotis

2008-01-01

SummaryComplex flow patterns generated by irregular channel topography, such as boulders, submerged large woody debris, riprap and spur dikes, provide unique habitat for many aquatic organisms. Numerical modeling of the flow structures surrounding these obstructions is challenging, yet it represents an important tool for aquatic habitat assessment. In this study, the ability of two- (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) computational fluid dynamics models to reproduce these localized complex flow features is examined. The 3-D model is validated with laboratory data obtained from the literature for the case of a flow around a hemisphere under emergent and submerged conditions. The performance of the 2-D and 3-D models is then evaluated by comparing the numerical results with field measurements of flow around several boulders located at a reach of the Smith River, a regulated mountainous stream, obtained at base and peak flows. Close agreement between measured values and the velocity profiles predicted by the two models is obtained outside the wakes behind the hemisphere and boulders. However, the results suggest that in the vicinity of these obstructions the 3-D model is better suited for reproducing the circulation flow behavior at both low and high discharges. Application of the 2-D and 3-D models to meso-scale stream flows of ecological significance is furthermore demonstrated by using a recently developed spatial hydraulic metric to quantify flow complexity surrounding a number of brown trout spawning sites. It is concluded that the 3-D model can provide a much more accurate description of the heterogeneous velocity patterns favored by many aquatic species over a broad range of flows, especially under deep flow conditions when the various obstructions are submerged. Issues pertaining to selection of appropriate models for a variety of flow regimes and potential implication of the 3-D model on the development of better habitat suitability criteria are discussed. The research suggests ways of improving the modeling practices for ecosystem management studies.

Variable and complex food web structures revealed by exploring missing trophic links between birds and biofilm.

PubMed

Kuwae, Tomohiro; Miyoshi, Eiichi; Hosokawa, Shinya; Ichimi, Kazuhiko; Hosoya, Jun; Amano, Tatsuya; Moriya, Toshifumi; Kondoh, Michio; Ydenberg, Ronald C; Elner, Robert W

2012-04-01

Food webs are comprised of a network of trophic interactions and are essential to elucidating ecosystem processes and functions. However, the presence of unknown, but critical networks hampers understanding of complex and dynamic food webs in nature. Here, we empirically demonstrate a missing link, both critical and variable, by revealing that direct predator-prey relationships between shorebirds and biofilm are widespread and mediated by multiple ecological and evolutionary determinants. Food source mixing models and energy budget estimates indicate that the strength of the missing linkage is dependent on predator traits (body mass and foraging action rate) and the environment that determines food density. Morphological analyses, showing that smaller bodied species possess more developed feeding apparatus to consume biofilm, suggest that the linkage is also phylogenetically dependent and affords a compelling re-interpretation of niche differentiation. We contend that exploring missing links is a necessity for revealing true network structure and dynamics. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Intraguild Predation Dynamics in a Lake Ecosystem Based on a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Model: The Example of Lake Kinneret (Israel)

PubMed Central

Makler-Pick, Vardit; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Zohary, Tamar; Carmel, Yohay; Gal, Gideon

2017-01-01

The food web of Lake Kinneret contains intraguild predation (IGP). Predatory invertebrates and planktivorous fish both feed on herbivorous zooplankton, while the planktivorous fish also feed on the predatory invertebrates. In this study, a complex mechanistic hydrodynamic-ecological model, coupled to a bioenergetics-based fish population model (DYCD-FISH), was employed with the aim of revealing IGP dynamics. The results indicate that the predation pressure of predatory zooplankton on herbivorous zooplankton varies widely, depending on the season. At the time of its annual peak, it is 10–20 times higher than the fish predation pressure. When the number of fish was significantly higher, as occurs in the lake after atypical meteorological years, the effect was a shift from a bottom-up controlled ecosystem, to the top-down control of planktivorous fish and a significant reduction of predatory and herbivorous zooplankton biomass. Yet, seasonally, the decrease in predatory-zooplankton biomass was followed by a decrease in their predation pressure on herbivorous zooplankton, leading to an increase of herbivorous zooplankton biomass to an extent similar to the base level. The analysis demonstrates the emergence of non-equilibrium IGP dynamics due to intra-annual and inter-annual changes in the physico-chemical characteristics of the lake, and suggests that IGP dynamics should be considered in food web models in order to more accurately capture mass transfer and trophic interactions. PMID:28353646

Historical dynamics in ecosystem service bundles.

PubMed

Renard, Delphine; Rhemtulla, Jeanine M; Bennett, Elena M

2015-10-27

Managing multiple ecosystem services (ES), including addressing trade-offs between services and preventing ecological surprises, is among the most pressing areas for sustainability research. These challenges require ES research to go beyond the currently common approach of snapshot studies limited to one or two services at a single point in time. We used a spatiotemporal approach to examine changes in nine ES and their relationships from 1971 to 2006 across 131 municipalities in a mixed-use landscape in Quebec, Canada. We show how an approach that incorporates time and space can improve our understanding of ES dynamics. We found an increase in the provision of most services through time; however, provision of ES was not uniformly enhanced at all locations. Instead, each municipality specialized in providing a bundle (set of positively correlated ES) dominated by just a few services. The trajectory of bundle formation was related to changes in agricultural policy and global trends; local biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics explained the bundles' increasing spatial clustering. Relationships between services varied through time, with some provisioning and cultural services shifting from a trade-off or no relationship in 1971 to an apparent synergistic relationship by 2006. By implementing a spatiotemporal perspective on multiple services, we provide clear evidence of the dynamic nature of ES interactions and contribute to identifying processes and drivers behind these changing relationships. Our study raises questions about using snapshots of ES provision at a single point in time to build our understanding of ES relationships in complex and dynamic social-ecological systems.

FISHER INFORMATION AND DYNAMIC REGIME CHANGES IN ECOLOGICAL SYTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between dynamic regimes (or steady states), such as the conversion of oligotrophic to eutrophic conditions and associated aquatic ecological communities, due to natural (or increasingly) anthropogenic disturbances. As ecosystems experience per...

Novel Covariance-Based Neutrality Test of Time-Series Data Reveals Asymmetries in Ecological and Economic Systems

PubMed Central

Burby, Joshua W.; Lacker, Daniel

2016-01-01

Systems as diverse as the interacting species in a community, alleles at a genetic locus, and companies in a market are characterized by competition (over resources, space, capital, etc) and adaptation. Neutral theory, built around the hypothesis that individual performance is independent of group membership, has found utility across the disciplines of ecology, population genetics, and economics, both because of the success of the neutral hypothesis in predicting system properties and because deviations from these predictions provide information about the underlying dynamics. However, most tests of neutrality are weak, based on static system properties such as species-abundance distributions or the number of singletons in a sample. Time-series data provide a window onto a system’s dynamics, and should furnish tests of the neutral hypothesis that are more powerful to detect deviations from neutrality and more informative about to the type of competitive asymmetry that drives the deviation. Here, we present a neutrality test for time-series data. We apply this test to several microbial time-series and financial time-series and find that most of these systems are not neutral. Our test isolates the covariance structure of neutral competition, thus facilitating further exploration of the nature of asymmetry in the covariance structure of competitive systems. Much like neutrality tests from population genetics that use relative abundance distributions have enabled researchers to scan entire genomes for genes under selection, we anticipate our time-series test will be useful for quick significance tests of neutrality across a range of ecological, economic, and sociological systems for which time-series data are available. Future work can use our test to categorize and compare the dynamic fingerprints of particular competitive asymmetries (frequency dependence, volatility smiles, etc) to improve forecasting and management of complex adaptive systems. PMID:27689714

[Progress and prospects on evaluation of ecological restoration: a review of the 5th World Conference on Ecological Restoration].

PubMed

Ding, Jing-Yi; Zhao, Wen-Wu

2014-09-01

The 5th World Conference on Ecological Restoration was held in Madison, Wisconsin, USA on October 6-11, 2013. About 1200 delegates from more than 50 countries attended the conference, and discussed the latest developments in different thematic areas of ecological restoration. Discussions on evaluation of ecological restoration were mainly from three aspects: The construction for evaluation indicator system of ecological restoration; the evaluation methods of ecological restoration; monitoring and dynamic evaluation of ecological restoration. The meeting stressed the importance of evaluation in the process of ecological restoration and concerned the challenges in evaluation of ecological restoration. The conference had the following enlightenments for China' s research on evaluation of ecological restoration: 1) Strengthening the construction of comprehensive evaluation indicators system and focusing on the multi-participation in the evaluation process. 2) Paying more attentions on scale effect and scale transformation in the evaluation process of ecological restoration. 3) Expanding the application of 3S technology in assessing the success of ecological restoration and promoting the dynamic monitoring of ecological restoration. 4) Carrying out international exchanges and cooperation actively, and promoting China's international influence in ecological restoration research.

Alpine treeline of western North America: Linking organism-to-landscape dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malanson, George P.; Butler, David R.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Walsh, Stephen J; Tomback, Diana F.; Daniels, Lori D.; Resler, Lynn M.; Smith, William K.; Weiss, Daniel J.; Peterson, David L.; Bunn, Andrew G.; Hiemstra, Christopher A.; Liptzin, Daniel; Bourgeron, Patrick S.; Shen, Zehao; Millar, Constance I.

2007-01-01

Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotone—seed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree dieback—depend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind and snow, and so develop positive and negative feedback loops that create these microsites. As a result, complex landscape patterns are generated at multiple spatial scales. Although these mechanistic processes are fundamentally the same for all forest-tundra ecotones across western North America, factors such as prior climate, underlying geology and geomorphology, and genetic constraints of dominant tree species lead to geographic differences in the responses of particular ecotones to climate change.

Winnerless competition principle and prediction of the transient dynamics in a Lotka-Volterra model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afraimovich, Valentin; Tristan, Irma; Huerta, Ramon; Rabinovich, Mikhail I.

2008-12-01

Predicting the evolution of multispecies ecological systems is an intriguing problem. A sufficiently complex model with the necessary predicting power requires solutions that are structurally stable. Small variations of the system parameters should not qualitatively perturb its solutions. When one is interested in just asymptotic results of evolution (as time goes to infinity), then the problem has a straightforward mathematical image involving simple attractors (fixed points or limit cycles) of a dynamical system. However, for an accurate prediction of evolution, the analysis of transient solutions is critical. In this paper, in the framework of the traditional Lotka-Volterra model (generalized in some sense), we show that the transient solution representing multispecies sequential competition can be reproducible and predictable with high probability.

Winnerless competition principle and prediction of the transient dynamics in a Lotka-Volterra model.

PubMed

Afraimovich, Valentin; Tristan, Irma; Huerta, Ramon; Rabinovich, Mikhail I

2008-12-01

Predicting the evolution of multispecies ecological systems is an intriguing problem. A sufficiently complex model with the necessary predicting power requires solutions that are structurally stable. Small variations of the system parameters should not qualitatively perturb its solutions. When one is interested in just asymptotic results of evolution (as time goes to infinity), then the problem has a straightforward mathematical image involving simple attractors (fixed points or limit cycles) of a dynamical system. However, for an accurate prediction of evolution, the analysis of transient solutions is critical. In this paper, in the framework of the traditional Lotka-Volterra model (generalized in some sense), we show that the transient solution representing multispecies sequential competition can be reproducible and predictable with high probability.

How Does a Divided Population Respond to Change?

PubMed

Qubbaj, Murad R; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M; Anderies, John M

2015-01-01

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics--as opposed to an independent process--of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions.

Temperate Snake Community in South America: Is Diet Determined by Phylogeny or Ecology?

PubMed Central

Etchepare, Eduardo G.

2015-01-01

Communities are complex and dynamic systems that change with time. The first attempts to explain how they were structured involve contemporary phenomena like ecological interactions between species (e.g., competition and predation) and led to the competition-predation hypothesis. Recently, the deep history hypothesis has emerged, which suggests that profound differences in the evolutionary history of organisms resulted in a number of ecological features that remain largely on species that are part of existing communities. Nevertheless, both phylogenetic structure and ecological interactions can act together to determine the structure of a community. Because diet is one of the main niche axes, in this study we evaluated, for the first time, the impact of ecological and phylogenetic factors on the diet of Neotropical snakes from the subtropical-temperate region of South America. Additionally, we studied their relationship with morphological and environmental aspects to understand the natural history and ecology of this community. A canonical phylogenetical ordination analysis showed that phylogeny explained most of the variation in diet, whereas ecological characters explained very little of this variation. Furthermore, some snakes that shared the habitat showed some degree of diet convergence, in accordance with the competition-predation hypothesis, although phylogeny remained the major determinant in structuring this community. The clade with the greatest variability was the subfamily Dipsadinae, whose members had a very different type of diet, based on soft-bodied invertebrates. Our results are consistent with the deep history hypothesis, and we suggest that the community under study has a deep phylogenetic effect that explains most of the variation in the diet. PMID:25945501

Social-ecological predictors of global invasions and extinctions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lotz, Aaron; Allen, Craig R.

2013-01-01

Most assessments of resilience have been focused on local conditions. Studies focused on the relationship between humanity and environmental degradation are rare, and are rarely comprehensive. We investigated multiple social-ecological factors for 100 countries around the globe in relation to the percentage of invasions and extinctions within each country. These 100 countries contain approximately 87% of the world’s population, produce 43% of the world’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and take up 74% of the earth’s total land area. We used an information theoretic approach to determine which models were most supported by our data, utilizing an a priori set of plausible models that included a combination of 15 social-ecological variables, each social-ecological factor by itself, and selected social-ecological factors grouped into three broad classes. These variables were per capita GDP, export-import ratio, tourism, undernourishment, energy efficiency, agricultural intensity, rainfall, water stress, wilderness protection, total biodiversity, life expectancy, adult literacy, pesticide regulation, political stability, and female participation in government. Our results indicate that as total biodiversity and total land area increase, the percentage of endangered birds also increases. As the independent variables (agricultural intensity, rainfall, water stress, and total biodiversity) in the ecological class model increase, the percentage of endangered mammals in a country increases. The percentage of invasive birds and mammals in a country increases as per capita GDP increases. As life expectancy increases, the percentage of invasive and endangered birds and mammals increases. Although our analysis does not determine mechanisms, the patterns observed in this study provide insight into the dynamics of a complex, global, social-ecological system.

An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics.

PubMed

Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B; Womble, Jamie N; Esslinger, George G; Bower, Michael R; Hefley, Trevor J

2017-02-01

Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Efficacy of Two Different Instructional Methods Involving Complex Ecological Content

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randler, Christoph; Bogner, Franz X.

2009-01-01

Teaching and learning approaches in ecology very often follow linear conceptions of ecosystems. Empirical studies with an ecological focus consistent with existing syllabi and focusing on cognitive achievement are scarce. Consequently, we concentrated on a classroom unit that offers learning materials and highlights the existing complexity rather…

[Dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province].

PubMed

Weng, Boqi; Wang, Yixiang; Huang, Yibin; Ying, Zhaoyang; Huang, Qinlou

2006-11-01

The analysis on the dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province showed that in 1999-2003, the ecological footprint per capita in the Province increased from 1.428 hm2 to 1.658 hm2, while the ecological capacity per capita decreased from 0.683 hm2 to 0.607 hm2, with an increased ecological deficit year after year. The contradiction between the ecological footprint and ecological capacity pricked up gradually, and the ecological environment was at risk. There existed a severe imbalance in the supply and demand of ecological footprint per capita. The main body of the demands was grassland and fossil fuel, accouting for 55.74% - 63.43% of the total, while their supply only occupied 0.77% - 0.82% and next to nothing of the ecological capacity per capita, respectively. As a whole, the ecological footprint per ten thousand yuan GDP declined in the five years, indicating that the resources use efficiency in the Province was improved gradually. Based on the analysis of the present situation of the economic development and resources distribution in the Province, the strategies on reducing ecological deficit were put forward.

Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

2014-05-01

Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem assessment of a waterbody by reviewing applications from a complex coastal ecosystem, the Lagoon of Venice, and explore potential applications to other coastal and open sea system, up to the scale of the Mediterannean Sea.

Transmission models and management of lymphatic filariasis elimination.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Gambhir, Manoj

2010-01-01

The planning and evaluation of parasitic control programmes are complicated by the many interacting population dynamic and programmatic factors that determine infection trends under different control options. A key need is quantification about the status of the parasite system state at any one given timepoint and the dynamic change brought upon that state as an intervention program proceeds. Here, we focus on the control and elimination of the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, to show how mathematical models of parasite transmission can provide a quantitative framework for aiding the design of parasite elimination and monitoring programs by their ability to support (1) conducting rational analysis and definition of endpoints for different programmatic aims or objectives, including transmission endpoints for disease elimination, (2) undertaking strategic analysis to aid the optimal design of intervention programs to meet set endpoints under different endemic settings and (3) providing support for performing informed evaluations of ongoing programs, including aiding the formation of timely adaptive management strategies to correct for any observed deficiencies in program effectiveness. The results also highlight how the use of a model-based framework will be critical to addressing the impacts of ecological complexities, heterogeneities and uncertainties on effective parasite management and thereby guiding the development of strategies to resolve and overcome such real-world complexities. In particular, we underscore how this approach can provide a link between ecological science and policy by revealing novel tools and measures to appraise and enhance the biological controllability or eradicability of parasitic diseases. We conclude by emphasizing an urgent need to develop and apply flexible adaptive management frameworks informed by mathematical models that are based on learning and reducing uncertainty using monitoring data, apply phased or sequential decision-making to address extant uncertainty and focus on developing ecologically resilient management strategies, in ongoing efforts to control or eliminate filariasis and other parasitic diseases in resource-poor communities.

High refuge availability on coral reefs increases the vulnerability of reef-associated predators to overexploitation.

PubMed

Rogers, Alice; Blanchard, Julia L; Newman, Steven P; Dryden, Charlie S; Mumby, Peter J

2018-02-01

Refuge availability and fishing alter predator-prey interactions on coral reefs, but our understanding of how they interact to drive food web dynamics, community structure and vulnerability of different trophic groups is unclear. Here, we apply a size-based ecosystem model of coral reefs, parameterized with empirical measures of structural complexity, to predict fish biomass, productivity and community structure in reef ecosystems under a broad range of refuge availability and fishing regimes. In unfished ecosystems, the expected positive correlation between reef structural complexity and biomass emerges, but a non-linear effect of predation refuges is observed for the productivity of predatory fish. Reefs with intermediate complexity have the highest predator productivity, but when refuge availability is high and prey are less available, predator growth rates decrease, with significant implications for fisheries. Specifically, as fishing intensity increases, predators in habitats with high refuge availability exhibit vulnerability to over-exploitation, resulting in communities dominated by herbivores. Our study reveals mechanisms for threshold dynamics in predators living in complex habitats and elucidates how predators can be food-limited when most of their prey are able to hide. We also highlight the importance of nutrient recycling via the detrital pathway, to support high predator biomasses on coral reefs. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Self-organized instability in complex ecosystems.

PubMed

Solé, Ricard V; Alonso, David; McKane, Alan

2002-05-29

Why are some ecosystems so rich, yet contain so many rare species? High species diversity, together with rarity, is a general trend in neotropical forests and coral reefs. However, the origin of such diversity and the consequences of food web complexity in both species abundances and temporal fluctuations are not well understood. Several regularities are observed in complex, multispecies ecosystems that suggest that these ecologies might be organized close to points of instability. We explore, in greater depth, a recent stochastic model of population dynamics that is shown to reproduce: (i) the scaling law linking species number and connectivity; (ii) the observed distributions of species abundance reported from field studies (showing long tails and thus a predominance of rare species); (iii) the complex fluctuations displayed by natural communities (including chaotic dynamics); and (iv) the species-area relations displayed by rainforest plots. It is conjectured that the conflict between the natural tendency towards higher diversity due to immigration, and the ecosystem level constraints derived from an increasing number of links, leaves the system poised at a critical boundary separating stable from unstable communities, where large fluctuations are expected to occur. We suggest that the patterns displayed by species-rich communities, including rarity, would result from such a spontaneous tendency towards instability.

Backyard Ecology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elser, Monica; Musheno, Birgit; Saltz, Charlene

2003-01-01

Describes the Ecology Explorers, the community education component of Arizona State University's Central Arizona Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research project, which offers teacher internship programs that link university researchers, K-12 teachers, and students in studying urban ecology. Explains that student neighborhoods are dynamic ecosystems…

Capturing the genetic makeup of the active microbiome in situ

DOE PAGES

Singer, Esther; Wagner, Michael; Woyke, Tanja

2017-06-02

More than any other technology, nucleic acid sequencing has enabled microbial ecology studies to be complemented with the data volumes necessary to capture the extent of microbial diversity and dynamics in a wide range of environments. In order to truly understand and predict environmental processes, however, the distinction between active, inactive and dead microbial cells is critical. Also, experimental designs need to be sensitive toward varying population complexity and activity, and temporal as well as spatial scales of process rates. There are a number of approaches, including single-cell techniques, which were designed to study in situ microbial activity and thatmore » have been successively coupled to nucleic acid sequencing. The exciting new discoveries regarding in situ microbial activity provide evidence that future microbial ecology studies will indispensably rely on techniques that specifically capture members of the microbiome active in the environment. Herein, we review those currently used activity-based approaches that can be directly linked to shotgun nucleic acid sequencing, evaluate their relevance to ecology studies, and discuss future directions.« less

Capturing the genetic makeup of the active microbiome in situ

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singer, Esther; Wagner, Michael; Woyke, Tanja

More than any other technology, nucleic acid sequencing has enabled microbial ecology studies to be complemented with the data volumes necessary to capture the extent of microbial diversity and dynamics in a wide range of environments. In order to truly understand and predict environmental processes, however, the distinction between active, inactive and dead microbial cells is critical. Also, experimental designs need to be sensitive toward varying population complexity and activity, and temporal as well as spatial scales of process rates. There are a number of approaches, including single-cell techniques, which were designed to study in situ microbial activity and thatmore » have been successively coupled to nucleic acid sequencing. The exciting new discoveries regarding in situ microbial activity provide evidence that future microbial ecology studies will indispensably rely on techniques that specifically capture members of the microbiome active in the environment. Herein, we review those currently used activity-based approaches that can be directly linked to shotgun nucleic acid sequencing, evaluate their relevance to ecology studies, and discuss future directions.« less

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, Mark; Wootton, J. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Emmerson, Mark; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Timothy

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (∼25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

PubMed Central

Bhumiratana, Adisak; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Sorosjinda-Nunthawarasilp, Prapa; Maneekan, Pannamas; Koyadun, Surachart

2013-01-01

This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR) malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world's most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders. PMID:23865048

Quantifying chaos for ecological stoichiometry.

PubMed

Duarte, Jorge; Januário, Cristina; Martins, Nuno; Sardanyés, Josep

2010-09-01

The theory of ecological stoichiometry considers ecological interactions among species with different chemical compositions. Both experimental and theoretical investigations have shown the importance of species composition in the outcome of the population dynamics. A recent study of a theoretical three-species food chain model considering stoichiometry [B. Deng and I. Loladze, Chaos 17, 033108 (2007)] shows that coexistence between two consumers predating on the same prey is possible via chaos. In this work we study the topological and dynamical measures of the chaotic attractors found in such a model under ecological relevant parameters. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first compute the topological entropy associated with unimodal Poincaré return maps obtained by Deng and Loladze from a dimension reduction. With this measure we numerically prove chaotic competitive coexistence, which is characterized by positive topological entropy and positive Lyapunov exponents, achieved when the first predator reduces its maximum growth rate, as happens at increasing δ1. However, for higher values of δ1 the dynamics become again stable due to an asymmetric bubble-like bifurcation scenario. We also show that a decrease in the efficiency of the predator sensitive to prey's quality (increasing parameter ζ) stabilizes the dynamics. Finally, we estimate the fractal dimension of the chaotic attractors for the stoichiometric ecological model.

Systemic risk in banking ecosystems.

PubMed

Haldane, Andrew G; May, Robert M

2011-01-20

In the run-up to the recent financial crisis, an increasingly elaborate set of financial instruments emerged, intended to optimize returns to individual institutions with seemingly minimal risk. Essentially no attention was given to their possible effects on the stability of the system as a whole. Drawing analogies with the dynamics of ecological food webs and with networks within which infectious diseases spread, we explore the interplay between complexity and stability in deliberately simplified models of financial networks. We suggest some policy lessons that can be drawn from such models, with the explicit aim of minimizing systemic risk.

Models of life: epigenetics, diversity and cycles.

PubMed

Sneppen, Kim

2017-04-01

This review emphasizes aspects of biology that can be understood through repeated applications of simple causal rules. The selected topics include perspectives on gene regulation, phage lambda development, epigenetics, microbial ecology, as well as model approaches to diversity and to punctuated equilibrium in evolution. Two outstanding features are repeatedly described. One is the minimal number of rules to sustain specific states of complex systems for a long time. The other is the collapse of such states and the subsequent dynamical cycle of situations that restitute the system to a potentially new metastable state.

Models of life: epigenetics, diversity and cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sneppen, Kim

2017-04-01

This review emphasizes aspects of biology that can be understood through repeated applications of simple causal rules. The selected topics include perspectives on gene regulation, phage lambda development, epigenetics, microbial ecology, as well as model approaches to diversity and to punctuated equilibrium in evolution. Two outstanding features are repeatedly described. One is the minimal number of rules to sustain specific states of complex systems for a long time. The other is the collapse of such states and the subsequent dynamical cycle of situations that restitute the system to a potentially new metastable state.

An Agent-Based Model for Studying Child Maltreatment and Child Maltreatment Prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard W.

This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the dynamics of child maltreatment and child maltreatment prevention. The developed model follows the principles of complex systems science and explicitly models a community and its families with multi-level factors and interconnections across the social ecology. This makes it possible to experiment how different factors and prevention strategies can affect the rate of child maltreatment. We present the background of this work and give an overview of the agent-based model and show some simulation results.

Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics.

PubMed

Kirk, Devin; Jones, Natalie; Peacock, Stephanie; Phillips, Jessica; Molnár, Péter K; Krkošek, Martin; Luijckx, Pepijn

2018-02-01

The complexity of host-parasite interactions makes it difficult to predict how host-parasite systems will respond to climate change. In particular, host and parasite traits such as survival and virulence may have distinct temperature dependencies that must be integrated into models of disease dynamics. Using experimental data from Daphnia magna and a microsporidian parasite, we fitted a mechanistic model of the within-host parasite population dynamics. Model parameters comprising host aging and mortality, as well as parasite growth, virulence, and equilibrium abundance, were specified by relationships arising from the metabolic theory of ecology. The model effectively predicts host survival, parasite growth, and the cost of infection across temperature while using less than half the parameters compared to modeling temperatures discretely. Our results serve as a proof of concept that linking simple metabolic models with a mechanistic host-parasite framework can be used to predict temperature responses of parasite population dynamics at the within-host level.

Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics

PubMed Central

Jones, Natalie; Peacock, Stephanie; Phillips, Jessica; Molnár, Péter K.; Krkošek, Martin; Luijckx, Pepijn

2018-01-01

The complexity of host–parasite interactions makes it difficult to predict how host–parasite systems will respond to climate change. In particular, host and parasite traits such as survival and virulence may have distinct temperature dependencies that must be integrated into models of disease dynamics. Using experimental data from Daphnia magna and a microsporidian parasite, we fitted a mechanistic model of the within-host parasite population dynamics. Model parameters comprising host aging and mortality, as well as parasite growth, virulence, and equilibrium abundance, were specified by relationships arising from the metabolic theory of ecology. The model effectively predicts host survival, parasite growth, and the cost of infection across temperature while using less than half the parameters compared to modeling temperatures discretely. Our results serve as a proof of concept that linking simple metabolic models with a mechanistic host–parasite framework can be used to predict temperature responses of parasite population dynamics at the within-host level. PMID:29415043

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deng, Ye; Zhang, Ping; Qin, Yujia

When trying to discern network interactions among different species/populations in microbial communities interests have been evoked in recent years, but little information is available about temporal dynamics of microbial network interactions in response to environmental perturbations. We modified the random matrix theory-based network approach to discern network succession in groundwater microbial communities in response to emulsified vegetable oil (EVO) amendment for uranium bioremediation. Groundwater microbial communities from one control and seven monitor wells were analysed with a functional gene array (GeoChip 3.0), and functional molecular ecological networks (fMENs) at different time points were reconstructed. Our results showed that the networkmore » interactions were dramatically altered by EVO amendment. Dynamic and resilient succession was evident: fairly simple at the initial stage (Day 0), increasingly complex at the middle period (Days 4, 17, 31), most complex at Day 80, and then decreasingly complex at a later stage (140–269 days). Unlike previous studies in other habitats, negative interactions predominated in a time-series fMEN, suggesting strong competition among different microbial species in the groundwater systems after EVO injection. In particular, several keystone sulfate-reducing bacteria showed strong negative interactions with their network neighbours. These results provide mechanistic understanding of the decreased phylogenetic diversity during environmental perturbations.« less

Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle | Science Inventory | US EPA

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and

The effect of phenotypic traits and external cues on natal dispersal movements.

PubMed

Delgado, María del Mar; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Revilla, Eloy; Nams, Vilis O

2010-05-01

1. Natal dispersal has the potential to affect most ecological and evolutionary processes. However, despite its importance, this complex ecological process still represents a significant gap in our understanding of animal ecology due to both the lack of empirical data and the intrinsic complexity of dispersal dynamics. 2. By studying natal dispersal of 74 radiotagged juvenile eagle owls Bubo bubo (Linnaeus), in both the wandering and the settlement phases, we empirically addressed the complex interactions by which individual phenotypic traits and external cues jointly shape individual heterogeneity through the different phases of dispersal, both at nightly and weekly temporal scales. 3. Owls in poorer physical conditions travelled shorter total distances during the wandering phase, describing straighter paths and moving slower, especially when crossing heterogeneous habitats. In general, the owls in worse condition started dispersal later and took longer times to find further settlement areas. Net distances were also sex biased, with females settling at further distances. Dispersing individuals did not seem to explore wandering and settlement areas by using a search image of their natal surroundings. Eagle owls showed a heterogeneous pattern of patch occupancy, where few patches were highly visited by different owls whereas the majority were visited by just one individual. During dispersal, the routes followed by owls were an intermediate solution between optimized and randomized ones. Finally, dispersal direction had a marked directionality, largely influenced by dominant winds. These results suggest an asymmetric and anisotropic dispersal pattern, where not only the number of patches but also their functions can affect population viability. 4. The combination of the information coming from the relationships among a large set of factors acting and integrating at different spatial and temporal scales, under the perspective of heterogeneous life histories, are a fruitful ground for future understanding of natal dispersal.

Forest, Trees, Dynamics: Results from a Novel Wisconsin Card Sorting Test Variant Protocol for Studying Global-Local Attention and Complex Cognitive Processes

PubMed Central

Cowley, Benjamin; Lukander, Kristian

2016-01-01

Background: Recognition of objects and their context relies heavily on the integrated functioning of global and local visual processing. In a realistic setting such as work, this processing becomes a sustained activity, implying a consequent interaction with executive functions. Motivation: There have been many studies of either global-local attention or executive functions; however it is relatively novel to combine these processes to study a more ecological form of attention. We aim to explore the phenomenon of global-local processing during a task requiring sustained attention and working memory. Methods: We develop and test a novel protocol for global-local dissociation, with task structure including phases of divided (“rule search”) and selective (“rule found”) attention, based on the Wisconsin Card Sorting Task (WCST). We test it in a laboratory study with 25 participants, and report on behavior measures (physiological data was also gathered, but not reported here). We develop novel stimuli with more naturalistic levels of information and noise, based primarily on face photographs, with consequently more ecological validity. Results: We report behavioral results indicating that sustained difficulty when participants test their hypotheses impacts matching-task performance, and diminishes the global precedence effect. Results also show a dissociation between subjectively experienced difficulty and objective dimension of performance, and establish the internal validity of the protocol. Contribution: We contribute an advance in the state of the art for testing global-local attention processes in concert with complex cognition. With three results we establish a connection between global-local dissociation and aspects of complex cognition. Our protocol also improves ecological validity and opens options for testing additional interactions in future work. PMID:26941689

Parasites, ecosystems and sustainability: an ecological and complex systems perspective.

PubMed

Horwitz, Pierre; Wilcox, Bruce A

2005-06-01

Host-parasite relationships can be conceptualised either narrowly, where the parasite is metabolically dependent on the host, or more broadly, as suggested by an ecological-evolutionary and complex systems perspective. In this view Host-parasite relationships are part of a larger set of ecological and co-evolutionary interdependencies and a complex adaptive system. These interdependencies affect not just the hosts, vectors, parasites, the immediate agents, but also those indirectly or consequentially affected by the relationship. Host-parasite relationships also can be viewed as systems embedded within larger systems represented by ecological communities and ecosystems. So defined, it can be argued that Host-parasite relationships may often benefit their hosts and contribute significantly to the structuring of ecological communities. The broader, complex adaptive system view also contributes to understanding the phenomenon of disease emergence, the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms involved, and the role of parasitology in research and management of ecosystems in light of the apparently growing problem of emerging infectious diseases in wildlife and humans. An expanded set of principles for integrated parasite management is suggested by this perspective.

'Trophic whales' as biotic buffers: weak interactions stabilize ecosystems against nutrient enrichment.

PubMed

Schwarzmüller, Florian; Eisenhauer, Nico; Brose, Ulrich

2015-05-01

Human activities may compromise biodiversity if external stressors such as nutrient enrichment endanger overall network stability by inducing unstable dynamics. However, some ecosystems maintain relatively high diversity levels despite experiencing continuing disturbances. This indicates that some intrinsic properties prevent unstable dynamics and resulting extinctions. Identifying these 'ecosystem buffers' is crucial for our understanding of the stability of ecosystems and an important tool for environmental and conservation biologists. In this vein, weak interactions have been suggested as stabilizing elements of complex systems, but their relevance has rarely been tested experimentally. Here, using network and allometric theory, we present a novel concept for a priori identification of species that buffer against externally induced instability of increased population oscillations via weak interactions. We tested our model in a microcosm experiment using a soil food-web motif. Our results show that large-bodied species feeding at the food web's base, so called 'trophic whales', can buffer ecosystems against unstable dynamics induced by nutrient enrichment. Similar to the functionality of chemical or mechanical buffers, they serve as 'biotic buffers' that take up stressor effects and thus protect fragile systems from instability. We discuss trophic whales as common functional building blocks across ecosystems. Considering increasing stressor effects under anthropogenic global change, conservation of these network-intrinsic biotic buffers may help maintain the stability and diversity of natural ecosystems. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Stage-structured infection transmission and a spatial epidemic: a model for Lyme disease.

PubMed

Caraco, Thomas; Glavanakov, Stephan; Chen, Gang; Flaherty, Joseph E; Ohsumi, Toshiro K; Szymanski, Boleslaw K

2002-09-01

A greater understanding of the rate at which emerging disease advances spatially has both ecological and applied significance. Analyzing the spread of vector-borne disease can be relatively complex when the vector's acquisition of a pathogen and subsequent transmission to a host occur in different life stages. A contemporary example is Lyme disease. A long-lived tick vector acquires infection during the larval blood meal and transmits it as a nymph. We present a reaction-diffusion model for the ecological dynamics governing the velocity of the current epidemic's spread. We find that the equilibrium density of infectious tick nymphs (hence the risk of human disease) can depend on density-independent survival interacting with biotic effects on the tick's stage structure. The local risk of infection reaches a maximum at an intermediate level of adult tick mortality and at an intermediate rate of juvenile tick attacks on mammalian hosts. If the juvenile tick attack rate is low, an increase generates both a greater density of infectious nymphs and an increased spatial velocity. However, if the juvenile attack rate is relatively high, nymph density may decline while the epidemic's velocity still increases. Velocities of simulated two-dimensional epidemics correlate with the model pathogen's basic reproductive number (R0), but calculating R0 involves parameters of both host infection dynamics and the vector's stage-structured dynamics.

Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, Matthias

2010-01-01

A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species- and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.

Unearthing the ecology of soil microorganisms using a high resolution DNA-SIP approach to explore cellulose and xylose metabolism in soil

DOE PAGES

Pepe-Ranney, Charles; Campbell, Ashley N.; Koechli, Chantal N.; ...

2016-05-12

We explored microbial contributions to decomposition using a sophisticated approach to DNA Stable Isotope Probing (SIP). Our experiment evaluated the dynamics and ecological characteristics of functionally defined microbial groups that metabolize labile and structural C in soils. We added to soil a complex amendment representing plant derived organic matter substituted with either 13C-xylose or 13C-cellulose to represent labile and structural C pools derived from abundant components of plant biomass. We found evidence for 13C-incorporation into DNA from 13C-xylose and 13C-cellulose in 49 and 63 operational taxonomic units (OTUs), respectively. The types of microorganisms that assimilated 13C in the 13C-xylose treatmentmore » changed over time being predominantly Firrnicutes at day 1 followed by Bacteroidetes at day 3 and then Actinobacteria at day 7. These 13C-labeling dynamics suggest labile C traveled through different trophic levels. In contrast, microorganisms generally metabolized cellulose-C after 14 days and did not change to the same extent in phylogenetic composition over time. Furthermore, microorganisms that metabolized cellulose-C belonged to poorly characterized but cosmopolitan soil lineages including Verrucomicrobia, Chlorotlexi, and Planctomycetes.« less

Trophic groups and modules: two levels of group detection in food webs

PubMed Central

Gauzens, Benoit; Thébault, Elisa; Lacroix, Gérard; Legendre, Stéphane

2015-01-01

Within food webs, species can be partitioned into groups according to various criteria. Two notions have received particular attention: trophic groups (TGs), which have been used for decades in the ecological literature, and more recently, modules. The relationship between these two group concepts remains unknown in empirical food webs. While recent developments in network theory have led to efficient methods for detecting modules in food webs, the determination of TGs (groups of species that are functionally similar) is largely based on subjective expert knowledge. We develop a novel algorithm for TG detection. We apply this method to empirical food webs and show that aggregation into TGs allows for the simplification of food webs while preserving their information content. Furthermore, we reveal a two-level hierarchical structure where modules partition food webs into large bottom–top trophic pathways, whereas TGs further partition these pathways into groups of species with similar trophic connections. This provides new perspectives for the study of dynamical and functional consequences of food-web structure, bridging topological and dynamical analysis. TGs have a clear ecological meaning and are found to provide a trade-off between network complexity and information loss. PMID:25878127

Potential benefits of plant diversity on vegetated roofs: a literature review.

PubMed

Cook-Patton, Susan C; Bauerle, Taryn L

2012-09-15

Although vegetated green roofs can be difficult to establish and maintain, they are an increasingly popular method for mitigating the negative environmental impacts of urbanization. Most green roof development has focused on maximizing green roof performance by planting one or a few drought-tolerant species. We present an alternative approach, which recognizes green roofs as dynamic ecosystems and employs a diversity of species. We draw links between the ecological and green roof literature to generate testable predictions about how increasing plant diversity could improve short- and long-term green roof functioning. Although we found few papers that experimentally manipulated diversity on green roofs, those that did revealed ecological dynamics similar to those in more natural systems. However, there are many unresolved issues. To improve overall green roof performance, we should (1) elucidate the links among plant diversity, structural complexity, and green roof performance, (2) describe feedback mechanisms between plant and animal diversity on green roofs, (3) identify species with complementary traits, and (4) determine whether diverse green roof communities are more resilient to disturbance and environmental change than less diverse green roofs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unearthing the ecology of soil microorganisms using a high resolution DNA-SIP approach to explore cellulose and xylose metabolism in soil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pepe-Ranney, Charles; Campbell, Ashley N.; Koechli, Chantal N.

We explored microbial contributions to decomposition using a sophisticated approach to DNA Stable Isotope Probing (SIP). Our experiment evaluated the dynamics and ecological characteristics of functionally defined microbial groups that metabolize labile and structural C in soils. We added to soil a complex amendment representing plant derived organic matter substituted with either 13C-xylose or 13C-cellulose to represent labile and structural C pools derived from abundant components of plant biomass. We found evidence for 13C-incorporation into DNA from 13C-xylose and 13C-cellulose in 49 and 63 operational taxonomic units (OTUs), respectively. The types of microorganisms that assimilated 13C in the 13C-xylose treatmentmore » changed over time being predominantly Firrnicutes at day 1 followed by Bacteroidetes at day 3 and then Actinobacteria at day 7. These 13C-labeling dynamics suggest labile C traveled through different trophic levels. In contrast, microorganisms generally metabolized cellulose-C after 14 days and did not change to the same extent in phylogenetic composition over time. Furthermore, microorganisms that metabolized cellulose-C belonged to poorly characterized but cosmopolitan soil lineages including Verrucomicrobia, Chlorotlexi, and Planctomycetes.« less

CO2 studies remain key to understanding a future world.

PubMed

Becklin, Katie M; Walker, S Michael; Way, Danielle A; Ward, Joy K

2017-04-01

Contents 34 I. 34 II. 36 III. 37 IV. 37 V. 38 38 References 38 SUMMARY: Characterizing plant responses to past, present and future changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) is critical for understanding and predicting the consequences of global change over evolutionary and ecological timescales. Previous CO 2 studies have provided great insights into the effects of rising [CO 2 ] on leaf-level gas exchange, carbohydrate dynamics and plant growth. However, scaling CO 2 effects across biological levels, especially in field settings, has proved challenging. Moreover, many questions remain about the fundamental molecular mechanisms driving plant responses to [CO 2 ] and other global change factors. Here we discuss three examples of topics in which significant questions in CO 2 research remain unresolved: (1) mechanisms of CO 2 effects on plant developmental transitions; (2) implications of rising [CO 2 ] for integrated plant-water dynamics and drought tolerance; and (3) CO 2 effects on symbiotic interactions and eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Addressing these and other key questions in CO 2 research will require collaborations across scientific disciplines and new approaches that link molecular mechanisms to complex physiological and ecological interactions across spatiotemporal scales. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Cooperation in microbial communities and their biotechnological applications

PubMed Central

Cavaliere, Matteo; Feng, Song; Soyer, Orkun S.

2017-01-01

Summary Microbial communities are increasingly utilized in biotechnology. Efficiency and productivity in many of these applications depends on the presence of cooperative interactions between members of the community. Two key processes underlying these interactions are the production of public goods and metabolic cross‐feeding, which can be understood in the general framework of ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) dynamics. In this review, we illustrate the relevance of cooperative interactions in microbial biotechnological processes, discuss their mechanistic origins and analyse their evolutionary resilience. Cooperative behaviours can be damaged by the emergence of ‘cheating’ cells that benefit from the cooperative interactions but do not contribute to them. Despite this, cooperative interactions can be stabilized by spatial segregation, by the presence of feedbacks between the evolutionary dynamics and the ecology of the community, by the role of regulatory systems coupled to the environmental conditions and by the action of horizontal gene transfer. Cooperative interactions enrich microbial communities with a higher degree of robustness against environmental stress and can facilitate the evolution of more complex traits. Therefore, the evolutionary resilience of microbial communities and their ability to constraint detrimental mutants should be considered to design robust biotechnological applications. PMID:28447371

Implication of evolution and diversity in arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal symbioses.

PubMed

Buscot, François

2015-01-01

Being highly sensitive to ecological variations, symbiotic associations should inherently have a limited occurrence in nature. To circumvent this sensitivity and reach their universal distribution, symbioses used three strategies during their evolution, which all generated high biodiversity levels: (i) specialization to a specific environment, (ii) protection of one partner via its internalization into the other, (iii) frequent partner exchange. Mycorrhizal associations follow the 3rd strategy, but also present traits of internalization. As most ancient type, arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) formed by a monophyletic fungal group with reduced species richness did constantly support the mineral nutrition of terrestrial plants and enabled their ecological radiation and actual biodiversity level. In contrast ectomycorrhiza (EM) evolved later and independently within different taxa of fungi able to degrade complex organic plant residues, and the diversity levels of EM fungal and tree partners are balanced. Despite their different origins and diversity levels, AM and EM fungi display similar patterns of diversity dynamics in ecosystems. At each time or succession interval, a few dominant and many rare fungi are recruited by plants roots from a wide reservoir of propagules. However, the dominant fungal partners are frequently replaced in relation to changes in the vegetation or ecological conditions. While the initial establishment of AM and EM fungal communities corresponds to a neutral recruitment, their further succession is rather driven by niche differentiation dynamics. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Jacob, Ute; Lindberg, D.R.; Lovvorn, James R.; Monson, Daniel H.; Tinker, M. Tim; Williams, Terrie M.; Wootton, J. Timothy; Carroll, Ian; Emmerson, Mark; Micheli, Fiorenza; Novak, Mark

2008-01-01

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Reverse Ecology: from systems to environments and back.

PubMed

Levy, Roie; Borenstein, Elhanan

2012-01-01

The structure of complex biological systems reflects not only their function but also the environments in which they evolved and are adapted to. Reverse Ecology-an emerging new frontier in Evolutionary Systems Biology-aims to extract this information and to obtain novel insights into an organism's ecology. The Reverse Ecology framework facilitates the translation of high-throughput genomic data into large-scale ecological data, and has the potential to transform ecology into a high-throughput field. In this chapter, we describe some of the pioneering work in Reverse Ecology, demonstrating how system-level analysis of complex biological networks can be used to predict the natural habitats of poorly characterized microbial species, their interactions with other species, and universal patterns governing the adaptation of organisms to their environments. We further present several studies that applied Reverse Ecology to elucidate various aspects of microbial ecology, and lay out exciting future directions and potential future applications in biotechnology, biomedicine, and ecological engineering.

Ecological communities with Lotka-Volterra dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunin, Guy

2017-04-01

Ecological communities in heterogeneous environments assemble through the combined effect of species interaction and migration. Understanding the effect of these processes on the community properties is central to ecology. Here we study these processes for a single community subject to migration from a pool of species, with population dynamics described by the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. We derive exact results for the phase diagram describing the dynamical behaviors, and for the diversity and species abundance distributions. A phase transition is found from a phase where a unique globally attractive fixed point exists to a phase where multiple dynamical attractors exist, leading to history-dependent community properties. The model is shown to possess a symmetry that also establishes a connection with other well-known models.

Ecological communities with Lotka-Volterra dynamics.

PubMed

Bunin, Guy

2017-04-01

Ecological communities in heterogeneous environments assemble through the combined effect of species interaction and migration. Understanding the effect of these processes on the community properties is central to ecology. Here we study these processes for a single community subject to migration from a pool of species, with population dynamics described by the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. We derive exact results for the phase diagram describing the dynamical behaviors, and for the diversity and species abundance distributions. A phase transition is found from a phase where a unique globally attractive fixed point exists to a phase where multiple dynamical attractors exist, leading to history-dependent community properties. The model is shown to possess a symmetry that also establishes a connection with other well-known models.

Conservation physiology for applied management of marine fish: an overview with perspectives on the role and value of telemetry

PubMed Central

Metcalfe, J. D.; Le Quesne, W. J. F.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Righton, D. A.

2012-01-01

Physiological studies focus on the responses of cells, tissues and individuals to stressors, usually in laboratory situations. Conservation and management, on the other hand, focus on populations. The field of conservation physiology addresses the question of how abiotic drivers of physiological responses at the level of the individual alter requirements for successful conservation and management of populations. To achieve this, impacts of physiological effects at the individual level need to be scaled to impacts on population dynamics, which requires consideration of ecology. Successfully realizing the potential of conservation physiology requires interdisciplinary studies incorporating physiology and ecology, and requires that a constructive dialogue develops between these traditionally disparate fields. To encourage this dialogue, we consider the increasingly explicit incorporation of physiology into ecological models applied to marine fish conservation and management. Conservation physiology is further challenged as the physiology of an individual revealed under laboratory conditions is unlikely to reflect realized responses to the complex variable stressors to which it is exposed in the wild. Telemetry technology offers the capability to record an animal's behaviour while simultaneously recording environmental variables to which it is exposed. We consider how the emerging insights from telemetry can strengthen the incorporation of physiology into ecology. PMID:22566680

Ecological opportunity and the evolution of habitat preferences in an arid-zone bird: implications for speciation in a climate-modified landscape

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Christidis, Les

2016-01-01

Bioclimatic models are widely used to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distributions. Range shifts are expected to occur as species track their current climate niche yet the potential for exploitation of new ecological opportunities that may arise as ecosystems and communities remodel is rarely considered. Here we show that grasswrens of the Amytornis textilis-modestus complex responded to new ecological opportunities in Australia’s arid biome through shifts in habitat preference following the development of chenopod shrublands during the late Plio-Pleistocene. We find evidence of spatially explicit responses to climatically driven landscape changes including changes in niche width and patterns of population growth. Conservation of structural and functional aspects of the ancestral niche appear to have facilitated recent habitat shifts, while demographic responses to late Pleistocene climate change provide evidence for the greater resilience of populations inhabiting the recently evolved chenopod shrubland communities. Similar responses could occur under future climate change in species exposed to novel ecological conditions, or those already occupying spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models that consider structural and functional aspects of the niche along with regional hydro-dynamics may be better predictors of future climate responses in Australia’s arid biome than bioclimatic models alone. PMID:26787111

Niche partitioning and biogeography of high light adapted Prochlorococcus across taxonomic ranks in the North Pacific

PubMed Central

Larkin, Alyse A; Blinebry, Sara K; Howes, Caroline; Lin, Yajuan; Loftus, Sarah E; Schmaus, Carrie A; Zinser, Erik R; Johnson, Zackary I

2016-01-01

The distribution of major clades of Prochlorococcus tracks light, temperature and other environmental variables; yet, the drivers of genomic diversity within these ecotypes and the net effect on biodiversity of the larger community are poorly understood. We examined high light (HL) adapted Prochlorococcus communities across spatial and temporal environmental gradients in the Pacific Ocean to determine the ecological drivers of population structure and diversity across taxonomic ranks. We show that the Prochlorococcus community has the highest diversity at low latitudes, but seasonality driven by temperature, day length and nutrients adds complexity. At finer taxonomic resolution, some ‘sub-ecotype' clades have unique, cohesive responses to environmental variables and distinct biogeographies, suggesting that presently defined ecotypes can be further partitioned into ecologically meaningful units. Intriguingly, biogeographies of the HL-I sub-ecotypes are driven by unique combinations of environmental traits, rather than through trait hierarchy, while the HL-II sub-ecotypes appear ecologically similar, thus demonstrating differences among these dominant HL ecotypes. Examining biodiversity across taxonomic ranks reveals high-resolution dynamics of Prochlorococcus evolution and ecology that are masked at phylogenetically coarse resolution. Spatial and seasonal trends of Prochlorococcus communities suggest that the future ocean may be comprised of different populations, with implications for ecosystem structure and function. PMID:26800235

Toward Gleasonian landscape ecology: From communities to species, from patches to pixels

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Jeffrey S. Evans; Kevin McGarigal; Joseph M. Kiesecker

2010-01-01

The fusion of individualistic community ecology with the Hutchinsonian niche concept enabled a broad integration of ecological theory, spanning all the way from the niche characteristics of individual species, to the composition, structure, and dynamics of ecological communities. Landscape ecology has been variously described as the study of the structure, function,...

The Role of Model Complexity in Determining Patterns of Chlorophyll Variability in the Coastal Northwest North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, A. M.; Fennel, K.; Bianucci, L.

2016-02-01

A key feature of the North Atlantic Ocean's biological dynamics is the annual phytoplankton spring bloom. In the region comprising the continental shelf and adjacent deep ocean of the northwest North Atlantic, we identified two patterns of bloom development: 1) locations with cold temperatures and deep winter mixed layers, where the spring bloom peaks around April and the annual chlorophyll cycle has a large amplitude, and 2) locations with warmer temperatures and shallow winter mixed layers, where the spring bloom peaks earlier in the year, sometimes indiscernible from the fall bloom. These patterns result from a combination of limiting environmental factors and interactions among planktonic groups with different optimal requirements. Simple models that represent the ecosystem with a single phytoplankton (P) and a single zooplankton (Z) group are challenged to reproduce these ecological interactions. Here we investigate the effect that added complexity has on determining spatio-temporal chlorophyll. We compare two ecosystem models, one that contains one P and one Z group, and one with two P and three Z groups. We consider three types of changes in complexity: 1) added dependencies among variables (e.g., temperature dependent rates), 2) modified structural pathways, and 3) added pathways. Subsets of the most sensitive parameters are optimized in each model to replicate observations in the region. For computational efficiency, the parameter optimization is performed using 1D surrogates of a 3D model. We evaluate how model complexity affects model skill, and whether the optimized parameter sets found for each model modify the interpretation of ecosystem functioning. Spatial differences in the parameter sets that best represent different areas hint at the existence of different ecological communities or at physical-biological interactions that are not represented in the simplest model. Our methodology emphasizes the combined use of observations, 1D models to help identifying patterns, and 3D models able to simulate the environment modre realistically, as a means to acquire predictive understanding of the ocean's ecology.

Disturbance, complexity, and succession of net ecosystem production in North America’s temperate deciduous forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gough, Christopher; Curtis, Peter; Hardiman, Brady

Century-old forests in the U.S. upper Midwest and Northeast power much of North Amer- ica’s terrestrial carbon (C) sink, but these forests’ production and C sequestration capacity are expected to soon decline as fast-growing early successional species die and are replaced by slower growing late successional species. But will this really happen? Here we marshal empirical data and ecological theory to argue that substantial declines in net ecosystem production (NEP) owing to reduced forest growth, or net primary production (NPP), are not imminent in regrown temperate deciduous forests over the next several decades. Forest age and production data for temperatemore » deciduous forests, synthesized from published literature, suggest slight declines in NEP and increasing or stable NPP during middle successional stages. We revisit long-held hypotheses by EP Odum and others that suggest low-severity, high-frequency disturbances occurring in the region’s aging forests will, against intuition, maintain NEP at higher-than- expected rates by increasing ecosystem complexity, sustaining or enhancing NPP to a level that largely o sets rising C losses as heterotrophic respiration increases. This theoretical model is also supported by biological evidence and observations from the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in Michigan, USA. Ecosystems that experience high-severity disturbances that simplify ecosystem complexity can exhibit substantial declines in production during middle stages of succession. However, observations from these ecosystems have exerted a disproportionate in uence on assumptions regarding the trajectory and magnitude of age-related declines in forest production. We conclude that there is a wide ecological space for forests to maintain NPP and, in doing so, lessens the declines in NEP, with signi cant implications for the future of the North American carbon sink. Our intellectual frameworks for understanding forest C cycle dynamics and resilience need to catch up to our more complex and nuanced understanding of ecological succession.« less

Plant signalling: the opportunities and dangers of chemical communication.

PubMed

Adler, Frederick R

2011-04-23

The notion of chemical communication between plants and other organisms has gone from being viewed as a fringe idea to an accepted ecological phenomenon only recently. An Organized Oral Session at the August 2010 Ecological Society of America meeting in Pittsburgh examined the role of plant signalling both within and between plants, with speakers addressing the remarkably wide array of effects that plant signals have on plant physiology, species interactions and entire communities. In addition to the familiar way that plants communicate with mutualists like pollinators and fruit dispersers through both chemical and visual cues, speakers at this session described how plants communicate with themselves, with each other, with herbivores and with predators of those herbivores. These plant signals create a complex odour web superimposed upon the more classical food web itself, with its own dynamics in the face of exotic species and rapid community assembly and disassembly.

From multifunctionality to multiple ecosystem services? A conceptual framework for multifunctionality in green infrastructure planning for urban areas.

PubMed

Hansen, Rieke; Pauleit, Stephan

2014-05-01

Green infrastructure (GI) and ecosystem services (ES) are promoted as concepts that have potential to improve environmental planning in urban areas based on a more holistic understanding of the complex interrelations and dynamics of social-ecological systems. However, the scientific discourses around both concepts still lack application-oriented frameworks that consider such a holistic perspective and are suitable to mainstream GI and ES in planning practice. This literature review explores how multifunctionality as one important principle of GI planning can be operationalized by approaches developed and tested in ES research. Specifically, approaches developed in ES research can help to assess the integrity of GI networks, balance ES supply and demand, and consider trade-offs. A conceptual framework for the assessment of multifunctionality from a social-ecological perspective is proposed that can inform the design of planning processes and support stronger exchange between GI and ES research.

Population dynamics of red tide dinoflagellates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyatt, Timothy; Zingone, Adriana

2014-03-01

Sea-surface discolorations due to high concentrations of phytoplankton are called red tides. Their ecological significance is a long standing puzzle, and they are sometimes considered pathological. Here we propose that many red tides, particularly but not exclusively those composed of certain autotrophic dinoflagellates, are presexual/sexual swarms, essential links in their complex life cycles. This view provides a rationale for the appearance of these organisms in thin surface layers, and helps explain their ephemeral nature. We suggest that further understanding of this phenomenon, and of phytoplankton ecology in general, would benefit from attention to the 'net reproductive value‧ (r) over the whole life cycle as well as to the division rate (μ) of the vegetative phase. It is argued that r is strategically adapted to seasonal cycles and long term environmental variability, while μ reflects tactical needs (timing) and constraints (grazers, parasites) on vegetative growth.

Macroecological analyses support an overkill scenario for late Pleistocene extinctions.

PubMed

Diniz-Filho, J A F

2004-08-01

The extinction of megafauna at the end of Pleistocene has been traditionally explained by environmental changes or overexploitation by human hunting (overkill). Despite difficulties in choosing between these alternative (and not mutually exclusive) scenarios, the plausibility of the overkill hypothesis can be established by ecological models of predator-prey interactions. In this paper, I have developed a macroecological model for the overkill hypothesis, in which prey population dynamic parameters, including abundance, geographic extent, and food supply for hunters, were derived from empirical allometric relationships with body mass. The last output correctly predicts the final destiny (survival or extinction) for 73% of the species considered, a value only slightly smaller than those obtained by more complex models based on detailed archaeological and ecological data for each species. This illustrates the high selectivity of Pleistocene extinction in relation to body mass and confers more plausibility on the overkill scenario.

How Robust is Your System Resilience?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homayounfar, M.; Muneepeerakul, R.

2017-12-01

Robustness and resilience are concepts in system thinking that have grown in importance and popularity. For many complex social-ecological systems, however, robustness and resilience are difficult to quantify and the connections and trade-offs between them difficult to study. Most studies have either focused on qualitative approaches to discuss their connections or considered only one of them under particular classes of disturbances. In this study, we present an analytical framework to address the linkage between robustness and resilience more systematically. Our analysis is based on a stylized dynamical model that operationalizes a widely used concept framework for social-ecological systems. The model enables us to rigorously define robustness and resilience and consequently investigate their connections. The results reveal the tradeoffs among performance, robustness, and resilience. They also show how the nature of the such tradeoffs varies with the choices of certain policies (e.g., taxation and investment in public infrastructure), internal stresses and external disturbances.

USING FISHER INFORMATION TO ASSESS THE RISK OF DYNAMIC REGIME CHANGES IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

The sustainable nature of particular dynamic regimes of ecosystems is an increasingly integral aspect of many ecological, economic, and social decisions. As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neig...

Sampling from complex networks using distributed learning automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezvanian, Alireza; Rahmati, Mohammad; Meybodi, Mohammad Reza

2014-02-01

A complex network provides a framework for modeling many real-world phenomena in the form of a network. In general, a complex network is considered as a graph of real world phenomena such as biological networks, ecological networks, technological networks, information networks and particularly social networks. Recently, major studies are reported for the characterization of social networks due to a growing trend in analysis of online social networks as dynamic complex large-scale graphs. Due to the large scale and limited access of real networks, the network model is characterized using an appropriate part of a network by sampling approaches. In this paper, a new sampling algorithm based on distributed learning automata has been proposed for sampling from complex networks. In the proposed algorithm, a set of distributed learning automata cooperate with each other in order to take appropriate samples from the given network. To investigate the performance of the proposed algorithm, several simulation experiments are conducted on well-known complex networks. Experimental results are compared with several sampling methods in terms of different measures. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm over the others.

Predator-prey dynamics stabilised by nonlinearity explain oscillations in dust-forming plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, A. E.; McKenzie, D. R.

2016-04-01

Dust-forming plasmas are ionised gases that generate particles from a precursor. In nature, dust-forming plasmas are found in flames, the interstellar medium and comet tails. In the laboratory, they are valuable in generating nanoparticles for medicine and electronics. Dust-forming plasmas exhibit a bizarre, even puzzling behaviour in which they oscillate with timescales of seconds to minutes. Here we show how the problem of understanding these oscillations may be cast as a predator-prey problem, with electrons as prey and particles as predators. The addition of a nonlinear loss term to the classic Lotka-Volterra equations used for describing the predator-prey problem in ecology not only stabilises the oscillations in the solutions for the populations of electrons and particles in the plasma but also explains the behaviour in more detail. The model explains the relative phase difference of the two populations, the way in which the frequency of the oscillations varies with the concentration of the precursor gas, and the oscillations of the light emission, determined by the populations of both species. Our results demonstrate the value of adopting an approach to a complex physical science problem that has been found successful in ecology, where complexity is always present.

Immune Ecosystem of Virus-Infected Host Tissues.

PubMed

Maarouf, Mohamed; Rai, Kul Raj; Goraya, Mohsan Ullah; Chen, Ji-Long

2018-05-06

Virus infected host cells serve as a central immune ecological niche during viral infection and replication and stimulate the host immune response via molecular signaling. The viral infection and multiplication process involves complex intracellular molecular interactions between viral components and the host factors. Various types of host cells are also involved to modulate immune factors in delicate and dynamic equilibrium to maintain a balanced immune ecosystem in an infected host tissue. Antiviral host arsenals are equipped to combat or eliminate viral invasion. However, viruses have evolved with strategies to counter against antiviral immunity or hijack cellular machinery to survive inside host tissue for their multiplication. However, host immune systems have also evolved to neutralize the infection; which, in turn, either clears the virus from the infected host or causes immune-mediated host tissue injury. A complex relationship between viral pathogenesis and host antiviral defense could define the immune ecosystem of virus-infected host tissues. Understanding of the molecular mechanism underlying this ecosystem would uncover strategies to modulate host immune function for antiviral therapeutics. This review presents past and present updates of immune-ecological components of virus infected host tissue and explains how viruses subvert the host immune surveillances.

Biochemical and physiological bases for the use of carbon and nitrogen isotopes in environmental and ecological studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohkouchi, Naohiko; Ogawa, Nanako O.; Chikaraishi, Yoshito; Tanaka, Hiroyuki; Wada, Eitaro

2015-12-01

We review the biochemical and physiological bases of the use of carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions as an approach for environmental and ecological studies. Biochemical processes commonly observed in the biosphere, including the decarboxylation and deamination of amino acids, are the key factors in this isotopic approach. The principles drawn from the isotopic distributions disentangle the complex dynamics of the biosphere and allow the interactions between the geosphere and biosphere to be analyzed in detail. We also summarize two recently examined topics with new datasets: the isotopic compositions of individual biosynthetic products (chlorophylls and amino acids) and those of animal organs for further pursuing the basis of the methodology. As a tool for investigating complex systems, compound-specific isotopic analysis compensates the intrinsic disadvantages of bulk isotopic signatures. Chlorophylls provide information about the particular processes of various photoautotrophs, whereas amino acids provide a precise measure of the trophic positions of heterotrophs. The isotopic distributions of carbon and nitrogen in a single organism as well as in the whole biosphere are strongly regulated, so that their major components such as amino acids are coordinated appropriately rather than controlled separately.

Harnessing complexity: taking advantage of context and relationships in dissemination of school-based interventions.

PubMed

Butler, Helen; Bowes, Glenn; Drew, Sarah; Glover, Sara; Godfrey, Celia; Patton, George; Trafford, Lea; Bond, Lyndal

2010-03-01

Schools and school systems are increasingly asked to use evidence-based strategies to promote the health and well-being of students. The dissemination of school-based health promotion research, however, offers particular challenges to conventional approaches to dissemination. Schools and education systems are multifaceted organizations that sit within constantly shifting broader contexts. This article argues that health promotion dissemination needs to be rethought for school communities as complex systems and that this requires understanding and harnessing the dynamic ecology of the sociopolitical context. In developing this argument, the authors draw on their experience of the dissemination process of a multilevel school-based intervention in a complex educational context. Building on this experience, they argue for the need to move beyond conventional dissemination strategies to a focus on active partnerships between developers and users of school-based intervention research and offer a conceptual tool for planning dissemination.

Stability and complexity in model meta-ecosystems

PubMed Central

Gravel, Dominique; Massol, François; Leibold, Mathew A.

2016-01-01

The diversity of life and its organization in networks of interacting species has been a long-standing theoretical puzzle for ecologists. Ever since May's provocative paper challenging whether ‘large complex systems [are] stable' various hypotheses have been proposed to explain when stability should be the rule, not the exception. Spatial dynamics may be stabilizing and thus explain high community diversity, yet existing theory on spatial stabilization is limited, preventing comparisons of the role of dispersal relative to species interactions. Here we incorporate dispersal of organisms and material into stability–complexity theory. We find that stability criteria from classic theory are relaxed in direct proportion to the number of ecologically distinct patches in the meta-ecosystem. Further, we find the stabilizing effect of dispersal is maximal at intermediate intensity. Our results highlight how biodiversity can be vulnerable to factors, such as landscape fragmentation and habitat loss, that isolate local communities. PMID:27555100

Transportation Network Topologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexandrov, Natalia (Editor)

2004-01-01

The existing U.S. hub-and-spoke air transportation system is reaching saturation. Major aspects of the current system, such as capacity, safety, mobility, customer satisfaction, security, communications, and ecological effects, require improvements. The changing dynamics - increased presence of general aviation, unmanned autonomous vehicles, military aircraft in civil airspace as part of homeland defense - contributes to growing complexity of airspace. The system has proven remarkably resistant to change. NASA Langley Research Center and the National Institute of Aerospace conducted a workshop on Transportation Network Topologies on 9-10 December 2003 in Williamsburg, Virginia. The workshop aimed to examine the feasibility of traditional methods for complex system analysis and design as well as potential novel alternatives in application to transportation systems, identify state-of-the-art models and methods, conduct gap analysis, and thus to lay a foundation for establishing a focused research program in complex systems applied to air transportation.

How Does a Divided Population Respond to Change?

PubMed Central

Qubbaj, Murad R.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M.; Anderies, John M.

2015-01-01

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics—as opposed to an independent process—of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions. PMID:26161859

Ecological Complexity in a Coffee Agroecosystem: Spatial Heterogeneity, Population Persistence and Biological Control

PubMed Central

Liere, Heidi; Jackson, Doug; Vandermeer, John

2012-01-01

Background Spatial heterogeneity is essential for the persistence of many inherently unstable systems such as predator-prey and parasitoid-host interactions. Since biological interactions themselves can create heterogeneity in space, the heterogeneity necessary for the persistence of an unstable system could be the result of local interactions involving elements of the unstable system itself. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we report on a predatory ladybird beetle whose natural history suggests that the beetle requires the patchy distribution of the mutualism between its prey, the green coffee scale, and the arboreal ant, Azteca instabilis. Based on known ecological interactions and the natural history of the system, we constructed a spatially-explicit model and showed that the clustered spatial pattern of ant nests facilitates the persistence of the beetle populations. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the beetle consuming the scale insects can cause the clustered distribution of the mutualistic ants in the first place. Conclusions/Significance From a theoretical point of view, our model represents a novel situation in which a predator indirectly causes a spatial pattern of an organism other than its prey, and in doing so facilitates its own persistence. From a practical point of view, it is noteworthy that one of the elements in the system is a persistent pest of coffee, an important world commodity. This pest, we argue, is kept within limits of control through a complex web of ecological interactions that involves the emergent spatial pattern. PMID:23029061

Graph Theory Approach for Studying Food Webs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longjas, A.; Tejedor, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2017-12-01

Food webs are complex networks of feeding interactions among species in ecological communities. Metrics describing food web structure have been proposed to compare and classify food webs ranging from food chain length, connectance, degree distribution, centrality measures, to the presence of motifs (distinct compartments), among others. However, formal methodologies for studying both food web topology and the dynamic processes operating on them are still lacking. Here, we utilize a quantitative framework using graph theory within which a food web is represented by a directed graph, i.e., a collection of vertices (species or trophic species defined as sets of species sharing the same predators and prey) and directed edges (predation links). This framework allows us to identify apex (environmental "source" node) to outlet (top predators) subnetworks and compute the steady-state flux (e.g., carbon, nutrients, energy etc.) in the food web. We use this framework to (1) construct vulnerability maps that quantify the relative change of flux delivery to the top predators in response to perturbations in prey species (2) identify keystone species, whose loss would precipitate further species extinction, and (3) introduce a suite of graph-theoretic metrics to quantify the topologic (imposed by food web connectivity) and dynamic (dictated by the flux partitioning and distribution) components of a food web's complexity. By projecting food webs into a 2D Topodynamic Complexity Space whose coordinates are given by Number of alternative paths (topologic) and Leakage Index (dynamic), we show that this space provides a basis for food web comparison and provide physical insights into their dynamic behavior.

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model inter-comparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, L.; Yool, A.; Allen, J. I.; Anderson, T. R.; Barciela, R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Enright, C.; Halloran, P. R.; Le Quéré, C.; de Mora, L.; Racault, M.-F.; Sinha, B.; Totterdell, I. J.; Cox, P. M.

2014-07-01

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide range of complexities from highly simplified, nutrient-restoring schemes, through nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, through to models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFT) based on their biogeochemical role (Dynamic Green Ocean Models; DGOM) and ecosystem models which group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth System Models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here, we present an inter-comparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the Nucleus for the European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean general circulation model (GCM), and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform or underperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models that are easier to tune are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields, and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low resolution climate dynamics and high complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry-climate interactions.

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model intercomparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, L.; Yool, A.; Allen, J. I.; Anderson, T. R.; Barciela, R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Enright, C.; Halloran, P. R.; Le Quéré, C.; de Mora, L.; Racault, M.-F.; Sinha, B.; Totterdell, I. J.; Cox, P. M.

2014-12-01

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide variety of complexities, including highly simplified nutrient-restoring schemes, nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFTs) based on their biogeochemical role (dynamic green ocean models) and ecosystem models that group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth system models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here we present an intercomparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth system model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the ocean general circulation model Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high-resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low-resolution climate dynamics and high-complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry-climate interactions.

What does remote sensing do for ecology?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roughgarden, J.; Running, S. W.; Matson, P. A.

1991-01-01

The application of remote sensing to ecological investigations is briefly discussed. Emphasis is given to the recruitment problem in marine population dynamics, the regional analysis of terrestrial ecosystems, and the monitoring of ecological changes. Impediments to the use of remote sensing data in ecology are addressed.

Ecological Limits to Terrestrial Carbon Dioxide Removal Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. J.; Torn, M. S.; Jones, A. D.

2011-12-01

Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere through terrestrial carbon sequestration and bioenergy (biological CDR) is a proposed climate change mitigation strategy. Biological CDR increases the carbon storage capacity of soils and biomass through changes in land cover and use, including reforestation, afforestation, conversion of land to agriculture for biofuels, conversion of degraded land to grassland, and alternative management practices such as conservation tillage. While biological CDR may play a valuable role in future climate change mitigation, many of its proponents fail to account for the full range of biological, biophysical, hydrologic, and economic complexities associated with proposed land use changes. In this analysis, we identify and discuss a set of ecological limits and impacts associated with terrestrial CDR. The capacity of biofuels, soils, and other living biomass to sequester carbon may be constrained by nutrient and water availability, soil dynamics, and local climate effects, all of which can change spatially and temporally in unpredictable ways. Even if CDR is effective at sequestering CO2, its associated land use and land cover changes may negatively impact ecological resources by compromising water quality and availability, degrading soils, reducing biodiversity, displacing agriculture, and altering local climate through albedo and evapotranspiration changes. Measures taken to overcome ecological limitations, such as fertilizer addition and irrigation, may exacerbate these impacts even further. The ecological considerations and quantitative analyses that we present highlight uncertainties introduced by ecological complexity, disagreements between models, perverse economic incentives, and changing environmental factors. We do not reject CDR as a potentially valuable strategy for climate change mitigation; ecosystem protection, restoration, and improved management practices could enhance soil fertility and protect biodiversity while reducing increases in atmospheric CO2. Rather, we emphasize the importance of evaluating the full set of biological, physical, economic, and political realities that accompany land-use changes and manipulations to the carbon cycle. While the immediate goal of biological CDR is to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations, its ultimate goal in mitigating climate change is to reduce the threats to ecosystems and society. Sequestering carbon at the cost of ecosystem health would not be a sensible approach.

Application of the Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model to Ecological Site Descriptions and Management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The utility of Ecological Site Descriptions (ESDs) and State-and-Transition Models (STMs) concepts in guiding rangeland management hinges on their ability to accurately describe and predict community dynamics and the associated consequences. For many rangeland ecosystems, plant community dynamics ar...

Generative Models of Segregation: Investigating Model-Generated Patterns of Residential Segregation by Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status

PubMed Central

Fossett, Mark

2011-01-01

This paper considers the potential for using agent models to explore theories of residential segregation in urban areas. Results of generative experiments conducted using an agent-based simulation of segregation dynamics document that varying a small number of model parameters representing constructs from urban-ecological theories of segregation can generate a wide range of qualitatively distinct and substantively interesting segregation patterns. The results suggest how complex, macro-level patterns of residential segregation can arise from a small set of simple micro-level social dynamics operating within particular urban-demographic contexts. The promise and current limitations of agent simulation studies are noted and optimism is expressed regarding the potential for such studies to engage and contribute to the broader research literature on residential segregation. PMID:21379372

Integrating Evolutionary Game Theory into Mechanistic Genotype-Phenotype Mapping.

PubMed

Zhu, Xuli; Jiang, Libo; Ye, Meixia; Sun, Lidan; Gragnoli, Claudia; Wu, Rongling

2016-05-01

Natural selection has shaped the evolution of organisms toward optimizing their structural and functional design. However, how this universal principle can enhance genotype-phenotype mapping of quantitative traits has remained unexplored. Here we show that the integration of this principle and functional mapping through evolutionary game theory gains new insight into the genetic architecture of complex traits. By viewing phenotype formation as an evolutionary system, we formulate mathematical equations to model the ecological mechanisms that drive the interaction and coordination of its constituent components toward population dynamics and stability. Functional mapping provides a procedure for estimating the genetic parameters that specify the dynamic relationship of competition and cooperation and predicting how genes mediate the evolution of this relationship during trait formation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological constraints influence the emergence of cooperative breeding when population dynamics determine the fitness of helpers.

PubMed

McLeod, David V; Wild, Geoff

2013-11-01

Cooperative breeding is a system in which certain individuals facilitate the production of offspring by others. The ecological constraints hypothesis states that ecological conditions deter individuals from breeding independently, and so individuals breed cooperatively to make the best of a bad situation. Current theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis is lacking. We formulate a mathematical model that emphasizes the underlying ecology of cooperative breeders. Our goal is to derive theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis using an ecological model of population dynamics. We consider a population composed of two kinds of individuals, nonbreeders (auxiliaries) and breeders. We suppose that help provided by an auxiliary increases breeder fecundity, but reduces the probability with which the auxiliary becomes a breeder. Our main result is a condition that guarantees success of auxiliary help. We predict that increasing the cost of dispersal promotes helping, in agreement with verbal theory. We also predict that increasing breeder mortality can either hinder helping (at high population densities), or promote it (at low population densities). We conclude that ecological constraints can exert influence over the evolution of auxiliary help when population dynamics are considered; moreover, that influence need not coincide with direct fitness benefits as previously found. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

PubMed Central

Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

2013-01-01

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

Predator-Prey Dynamics Driven by Feedback between Functionally Diverse Trophic Levels

PubMed Central

Wirtz, Kai; Gaedke, Ursula

2011-01-01

Neglecting the naturally existing functional diversity of communities and the resulting potential to respond to altered conditions may strongly reduce the realism and predictive power of ecological models. We therefore propose and study a predator-prey model that describes mutual feedback via species shifts in both predator and prey, using a dynamic trait approach. Species compositions of the two trophic levels were described by mean functional traits—prey edibility and predator food-selectivity—and functional diversities by the variances. Altered edibility triggered shifts in food-selectivity so that consumers continuously respond to the present prey composition, and vice versa. This trait-mediated feedback mechanism resulted in a complex dynamic behavior with ongoing oscillations in the mean trait values, reflecting continuous reorganization of the trophic levels. The feedback was only possible if sufficient functional diversity was present in both trophic levels. Functional diversity was internally maintained on the prey level as no niche existed in our system, which was ideal under any composition of the predator level due to the trade-offs between edibility, growth and carrying capacity. The predators were only subject to one trade-off between food-selectivity and grazing ability and in the absence of immigration, one predator type became abundant, i.e., functional diversity declined to zero. In the lack of functional diversity the system showed the same dynamics as conventional models of predator-prey interactions ignoring the potential for shifts in species composition. This way, our study identified the crucial role of trade-offs and their shape in physiological and ecological traits for preserving diversity. PMID:22096560

An Earth's Future Special Collection: Impacts of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kidwell, David M.; Dietrich, J. Casey; Hagen, Scott C.; Medeiros, Stephen C.

2017-01-01

Rising sea level represents a significant threat to coastal communities and ecosystems, including altered habitats and increased vulnerability to coastal storms and recurrent inundation. This threat is exemplified in the northern Gulf of Mexico, where low topography, marshes, and a prevalence of tropical storms have resulted in extensive coastal impacts. The ability to facilitate adaptation and mitigation measures relies, in part, on the development of robust predictive capabilities that incorporate complex biological processes with physical dynamics. Initiated in 2010, the 6-year Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise—Northern Gulf of Mexico project applied a transdisciplinary science approach to develop a suite of integrated modeling platforms informed by empirical data that are capable of evaluating a range of climate change scenarios. This special issue highlights resultant integrated models focused on tidal hydrodynamics, shoreline morphology, oyster ecology, coastal wetland vulnerability, and storm surges that demonstrate the need for dynamic models to incorporate feedbacks among physical and biological processes in assessments of sea level rise effects on coastal systems. Effects are projected to be significant, spatially variable and nonlinear relative to sea level rise rates. Scenarios of higher sea level rise rates are projected to exceed thresholds of wetland sustainability, and many regions will experience enhanced storm surges. Influenced by an extensive collaborative stakeholder engagement process, these assessments on the coastal dynamics of sea level rise provide a strong foundation for resilience measures in the northern Gulf of Mexico and a transferable approach for application to other coastal regions throughout the world.

Ecology of Avian Influenza Virus in Wild Birds in Tropical Africa.

PubMed

Gaidet, Nicolas

2016-05-01

Several ecologic factors have been proposed to describe the mechanisms whereby host ecology and the environment influence the transmission of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in wild birds, including bird's foraging behavior, migratory pattern, seasonal congregation, the rate of recruitment of juvenile birds, and abiotic factors. However, these ecologic factors are derived from studies that have been conducted in temperate or boreal regions of the Northern Hemisphere. These factors cannot be directly translated to tropical regions, where differences in host ecology and seasonality may produce different ecologic interactions between wild birds and AIV. An extensive dataset of AIV detection in wildfowl and shorebirds sampled across tropical Africa was used to analyze how the distinctive ecologic features of Afrotropical regions may influence the dynamics of AIV transmission in wild birds. The strong seasonality of rainfall and surface area of wetlands allows testing of how the seasonality of wildfowl ecology (reproduction phenology and congregation) is related to AIV seasonal dynamics. The diversity of the African wildfowl community provides the opportunity to investigate the respective influence of migratory behavior, foraging behavior, and phylogeny on species variation in infection rate. Large aggregation sites of shorebirds in Africa allow testing for the existence of AIV infection hot spots. We found that the processes whereby host ecology influence AIV transmission in wild birds in the Afrotropical context operate through ecologic factors (seasonal drying of wetlands and extended and nonsynchronized breeding periods) that are different than the one described in temperate regions, hence, resulting in different patterns of AIV infection dynamics.

Study the Seasonal Variability of Plankton and Forage Fish in the Gulf of Khambhat Using Npzfd Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Kumar, S.

2016-02-01

Numerical modelling of marine ecology exploits several assumptions and it is indeed quite challenging to include marine ecological phenomena into a mathematical framework with too many unknown parameters. The governing ordinary differential equations represent the interaction of the biological and chemical processes in a marine environment. The key concern in the development of a numerical models are parameterizations based on output, viz., mathematical modelling of ecological system mainly depends on parameters and its variations. Almost, all constituents of each trophic level of marine food web are depended on phytoplankton, which are mostly influenced by initial slope of P-I curve and nutrient stock in the study domain. Whereas, the earlier plankton dynamic models rarely include a compartment of small fish and as an agent in zooplankton mortality, which is most important for the modelling of higher trophic level of marine species. A compartment of forage fish in the modelling of plankton dynamics has been given more realistic mortality rates of plankton, viz., they feed upon phytoplankton and zooplankton. The inclusion of an additional compartment increases complexity of earlier plankton dynamics model as it introduces additional unknown parameters, which has been specified for performing the numerical simulations.As a case study we applied our analysis to explain the aquatic ecology of Gulf of Khambhat (19o 48' N - 22o20' N, 65o E - 72o40' E), west coast of India, which has rich bio-diversity and a high productive area in the form of plankton and forage fish. It has elevated turbidity and varying geography location, viz., one of the regions among world's ocean with high biological productivity.The model presented in this study is able to bring out the essential features of the observed data; that includes the bimodal oscillations in the observed data, monthly mean chlorophyll-a in the SeaWiFs/MODIS Aqua data and in-situ data of plankton. The additional compartment of forage fish and detritus in NPZFD model represents a major structural difference from the earlier NPZ model.

Responses to climate change in hot desert ecosystems: connecting local to global scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The consequences of connectivity in resources, propagules, and information to the interplay between drivers and responses across scales can result in ecological dynamics that are not easily predicted based on local drivers. Three major classes of connectivity events link local ecological dynamics wi...

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

Mechanical Analyses for coupled Vegetation-Flow System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.; Acharya, K.; Stone, M.

2010-12-01

Vegetation in riparian areas plays important roles in hydrology, geomorphology and ecology in local environment. Mechanical response of the aquatic vegetation to hydraulic forces and its impact on flow hydraulics have received considerable attention due to implications for flood control, habitat restoration, and water resources management. This study aims to advance understanding of the mechanical properties of in-stream vegetation including drag force, moment and stress. Dynamic changes of these properties under various flow conditions largely determine vegetation affected flow field and dynamic resistance with progressive bending, and hydraulic conditions for vegetation failure (rupture or wash-out) thus are critical for understanding the coupled vegetation-flow system. A new approach combining fluid and material mechanics is developed in this study to examine the behavior of both rigid and flexible vegetation. The major advantage of this approach is its capability to treat large deflection (bending) of plants and associated changes of mechanical properties in both vegetation and flow. Starting from simple emergent vegetation, both static and dynamic formulations of the problem are presented and the solutions are compared. Results show the dynamic behavior of a simplified system mimicking complex and real systems, implying the approach is able to disclose the physical essence of the coupled system. The approach is extended to complex vegetation under both submerged and emergent conditions using more realistic representation of biomechanical properties for vegetation.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Schindler, Daniel E; Lisi, Peter J; Holtgrieve, Gordon W; Leavitt, Peter R; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P; Selbie, Daniel T; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J; Walsh, Patrick B

2013-01-29

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Lisi, Peter J.; Holtgrieve, Gordon W.; Leavitt, Peter R.; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P.; Selbie, Daniel T.; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J.; Walsh, Patrick B.

2013-01-01

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems. PMID:23322737

Self-feedbacks determine the sustainability of human interventions in eco-social complex systems: Impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem health.

PubMed

Ortiz, Marco; Levins, Richard

2017-01-01

Several administrative polices have been implemented in order to reduce the negative impacts of fishing on natural ecosystems. Four eco-social models with different levels of complexity were constructed, which represent the seaweed harvest in central-northern Chile under two different regimes, Management and Exploitation Areas for Benthic Resources (MAEBRs) and Open Access Areas (OAAs). The dynamics of both regimes were analyzed using the following theoretical frameworks: (1) Loop Analysis, which allows the local stability or sustainability of the models and scenarios to be assessed; and (2) Hessian´s optimization procedure of a global fishery function (GFF) that represents each dynamics of each harvest. The results suggest that the current fishing dynamics in MAEBRs are not sustainable unless the market demand presents some type of control (i.e. taxes). Further, the results indicated that if the demand changes to a self-negative feedback (self-control) in MAEBRs, the stability is increased and, simultaneously, a relative maximum for the GFF is reached. Contrarily, the sustainability of the model/system representing the harvest (principally by cutting plants) in OAAs is not reached. The implementation of an "ecological" tax for intensive artisanal fisheries with low operational cost is proposed. The network analysis developed here is proposed as a general strategy for studying the effects of human interventions in marine coastal ecosystems under transient (short-term) dynamics.

A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D.; Tian, F.; Lin, M.; Sivapalan, M.

2015-02-01

The complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be valuable for improving our understanding of the co-evolution and self-organization of socio-hydrological systems driven by interactions and feedbacks operating at different scales. In this study, a simplified conceptual socio-hydrological model based on logistic growth curves is developed for the Tarim River basin in western China and is used to illustrate the explanatory power of such a co-evolutionary model. The study area is the main stream of the Tarim River, which is divided into two modeling units. The socio-hydrological system is composed of four sub-systems, i.e., the hydrological, ecological, economic, and social sub-systems. In each modeling unit, the hydrological equation focusing on water balance is coupled to the other three evolutionary equations to represent the dynamics of the social sub-system (denoted by population), the economic sub-system (denoted by irrigated crop area ratio), and the ecological sub-system (denoted by natural vegetation cover), each of which is expressed in terms of a logistic growth curve. Four feedback loops are identified to represent the complex interactions among different sub-systems and different spatial units, of which two are inner loops occurring within each separate unit and the other two are outer loops linking the two modeling units. The feedback mechanisms are incorporated into the constitutive relations for model parameters, i.e., the colonization and mortality rates in the logistic growth curves that are jointly determined by the state variables of all sub-systems. The co-evolution of the Tarim socio-hydrological system is then analyzed with this conceptual model to gain insights into the overall system dynamics and its sensitivity to the external drivers and internal system variables. The results show a costly pendulum swing between a balanced distribution of socio-economic and natural ecologic resources among the upper and lower reaches and a highly skewed distribution towards the upper reach. This evolution is principally driven by the attitudinal changes occurring within water resources management policies that reflect the evolving community awareness of society to concerns regarding the ecology and environment.

The study of seasonal composition and dynamics of wetland ecosystems and wintering bird habitat at Poyang Lake, PR China using object-based image analysis and field observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dronova, Iryna

Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems in the world which support critical ecological services and high biological diversity yet are vulnerable to climate change and human activities. In this thesis, I investigated the capabilities of satellite remote sensing with medium spatial resolution and object-based image analysis (OBIA) methods to elucidate seasonal composition and dynamics of wetland ecosystems and indicators of habitat for wintering waterbirds in a large conservation hotspot of Poyang Lake, PR China. I first examined changes in major wetland cover types during the low water period when Poyang Lake provides habitat to large numbers of migratory birds from the East Asian pathway. I used OBIA to map and analyze the transitions among water, vegetation, mudflat and sand classes from four 32-m Beijing-1 microsatellite images between late fall 2007 and early spring 2008. This analysis revealed that, while transitions among wetland classes were strongly associated with precipitation and flood-driven hydrological variation, the overall dynamics were a more complex interplay of vegetation phenology, disturbance and post-flood exposure. Remote sensing signals of environmental processes were more effectively captured by changes in fuzzy memberships to each class per location than by changes in spatial extents of the best-matching classes alone. The highest uncertainty in the image analysis corresponded to transitional wetland states at the end of the major flood recession in November and to heterogeneous mudflat areas at the land-water interface during the whole study period. Results suggest seasonally exposed mudflat features as important targets for future research due to heterogeneity and uncertainty of their composition, variable spatial distribution and sensitivity to hydrological dynamics. I further explored the potential of OBIA to overcome the limitations of the traditional pixel-based image classification methods in characterizing Poyang Lake plant functional types (PFTs) from the medium-resolution Landsat satellite data. I assessed the sensitivity in PFT classification accuracy to image object scale, machine-learning classification method and hierarchical level of vegetation classes determined from ecological functional traits of the locally dominant plant species. Both the overall and class-specific accuracy values were higher at coarser object scales compared to near-pixel levels, regardless of the machine-learning algorithm, with the overall accuracy exceeding 85-90%. However, more narrowly defined PFT classes differed in their highest-accuracy object scale values due to their unique patch structure, ecology of the dominant species and disturbance agents. To improve classification agreement between different levels of vegetation type hierarchy and reduce the uncertainty, future analyses should integrate spectral and geometric properties of vegetation patches with species' functional ecological traits. In periodically flooded wetlands such as Poyang Lake, rapid short-term surface dynamics and frequent inundation may constrain detection of directional long-term effects of climate change, succession or alien species invasions. To address this challenge, I proposed to classify Poyang Lake wetlands into "dynamic cover types" (DCTs) representing short-term ecological regimes shaped by phenology, disturbance and inundation, instead of static classes. I defined and mapped Poyang Lake DCTs for one flood cycle (late summer 2007-late spring 2008) from combined time series of medium-resolution multi-spectral and radar imagery. I further assessed sensitivity of DCTs to hydrological and climatic variation by comparing results with a hypothetical change scenario of a warmer wetter spring simulated by substituting spring 2008 input images with 2007 ones. This analysis identified the major steps in seasonal wetland change driven by flooding and vegetation phenology and spatial differences in change schedules across the heterogeneous study area. Comparison of DCTs from the actual flood season with the hypothetical scenario revealed both directional class shifts away from expanding permanent water and more complex location-specific redistributions of vegetation types and mudflats. These outcomes imply that changes in flooding may have non-uniform effects on different ecosystems and habitats and call for a thorough investigation of the future change scenarios for this landscape. The possibility to disentangle short-term ecological "regimes" from longer-term landscape changes via DCT framework suggests a promising research strategy for landscape ecosystem modeling, conservation and ecosystem management. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Structural complexity, movement bias, and metapopulation extinction risk in dendritic ecological networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2011-01-01

Spatial complexity in metacommunities can be separated into 3 main components: size (i.e., number of habitat patches), spatial arrangement of habitat patches (network topology), and diversity of habitat patch types. Much attention has been paid to lattice-type networks, such as patch-based metapopulations, but interest in understanding ecological networks of alternative geometries is building. Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) include some increasingly threatened ecological systems, such as caves and streams. The restrictive architecture of dendritic ecological networks might have overriding implications for species persistence. I used a modeling approach to investigate how number and spatial arrangement of habitat patches influence metapopulation extinction risk in 2 DENs of different size and topology. Metapopulation persistence was higher in larger networks, but this relationship was mediated by network topology and the dispersal pathways used to navigate the network. Larger networks, especially those with greater topological complexity, generally had lower extinction risk than smaller and less-complex networks, but dispersal bias and magnitude affected the shape of this relationship. Applying these general results to real systems will require empirical data on the movement behavior of organisms and will improve our understanding of the implications of network complexity on population and community patterns and processes.

Nonlinear Socio-Ecological Dynamics and First Principles ofCollective Choice Behavior of ``Homo Socialis"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonis, M.

Socio-ecological dynamics emerged from the field of Mathematical SocialSciences and opened up avenues for re-examination of classical problems of collective behavior in Social and Spatial sciences. The ``engine" of this collective behavior is the subjective mental evaluation of level of utilities in the future, presenting sets of composite socio-economic-temporal-locational advantages. These dynamics present new laws of collective multi-population behavior which are the meso-level counterparts of the utility optimization individual behavior. The central core of the socio-ecological choice dynamics includes the following first principle of the collective choice behavior of ``Homo Socialis" based on the existence of ``collective consciousness": the choice behavior of ``Homo Socialis" is a collective meso-level choice behavior such that the relative changes in choice frequencies depend on the distribution of innovation alternatives between adopters of innovations. The mathematical basis of the Socio-Ecological Dynamics includes two complementary analytical approaches both based on the use of computer modeling as a theoretical and simulation tool. First approach is the ``continuous approach" --- the systems of ordinary and partial differential equations reflecting the continuous time Volterra ecological formalism in a form of antagonistic and/or cooperative collective hyper-games between different sub-sets of choice alternatives. Second approach is the ``discrete approach" --- systems of difference equations presenting a new branch of the non-linear discrete dynamics --- the Discrete Relative m-population/n-innovations Socio-Spatial Dynamics (Dendrinos and Sonis, 1990). The generalization of the Volterra formalism leads further to the meso-level variational principle of collective choice behavior determining the balance between the resulting cumulative social spatio-temporal interactions among the population of adopters susceptible to the choice alternatives and the cumulative equalization of the power of elites supporting different choice alternatives. This balance governs the dynamic innovation choice process and constitutes the dynamic meso-level counterpart of the micro-economic individual utility maximization principle.

Why evolutionary biologists should get seriously involved in ecological monitoring and applied biodiversity assessment programs

PubMed Central

Brodersen, Jakob; Seehausen, Ole

2014-01-01

While ecological monitoring and biodiversity assessment programs are widely implemented and relatively well developed to survey and monitor the structure and dynamics of populations and communities in many ecosystems, quantitative assessment and monitoring of genetic and phenotypic diversity that is important to understand evolutionary dynamics is only rarely integrated. As a consequence, monitoring programs often fail to detect changes in these key components of biodiversity until after major loss of diversity has occurred. The extensive efforts in ecological monitoring have generated large data sets of unique value to macro-scale and long-term ecological research, but the insights gained from such data sets could be multiplied by the inclusion of evolutionary biological approaches. We argue that the lack of process-based evolutionary thinking in ecological monitoring means a significant loss of opportunity for research and conservation. Assessment of genetic and phenotypic variation within and between species needs to be fully integrated to safeguard biodiversity and the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in natural ecosystems. We illustrate our case with examples from fishes and conclude with examples of ongoing monitoring programs and provide suggestions on how to improve future quantitative diversity surveys. PMID:25553061

The transboundary nature of seabird ecology: Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jodice, Patrick G.R.; Suryan, Robert M.

2015-01-01

The term ‘seabird’ is generally applied to avian species that forage in the marine environment over open water. Seabirds typically nest in colonies and are long-lived species with low annual reproductive rates. Seabird breeding sites typically occur on islands or along coasts and as such are often at the boundaries of ecological or political zones. During the breeding season, seabirds cross a very distinct terrestrial/marine ecological boundary on a regular basis to forage. Even relatively ‘local’ species cross multiple jurisdictions within a day (e.g., state lands and waters, and federal waters) while pelagic species may transit through international waters on a daily, weekly, or monthly time-frame. Seabird life-histories expose individuals and populations to environmental conditions affecting both terrestrial and marine habitats. The wide-ranging and transboundary nature of seabird ecology also exposes these species to various environmental and anthropogenic forces such as contamination, commercial fisheries and climate forcing that also are transboundary in nature. Therefore, wherever conservation of seabirds or the management of their populations is the goal, consideration must be given to ecosystem dynamics on land and at sea. Because the jurisdiction of agencies does not cross the land-sea boundary in the same manner as the seabirds they are managing, these efforts are facilitated by multi-agency communication and collaboration. By their very nature and by the nature of the systems that they must function within, seabirds embody the complexity of wildlife ecology and conservation in the twenty-first century.

The Model Construction of English Ecological Class in the High School in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, Zhen

2017-01-01

The Ecological class is a kind of class in which the system of class teaching is in a state of dynamic balance and it can enhance the efficiency of class teaching. The article analyzes the feature of English ecological class, illustrates the non-ecological class teaching problems and explores the ways to establish English ecological class from the…

Ecological implications of behavioural syndromes.

PubMed

Sih, Andrew; Cote, Julien; Evans, Mara; Fogarty, Sean; Pruitt, Jonathan

2012-03-01

Interspecific trait variation has long served as a conceptual foundation for our understanding of ecological patterns and dynamics. In particular, ecologists recognise the important role that animal behaviour plays in shaping ecological processes. An emerging area of interest in animal behaviour, the study of behavioural syndromes (animal personalities) considers how limited behavioural plasticity, as well as behavioural correlations affects an individual's fitness in diverse ecological contexts. In this article we explore how insights from the concept and study of behavioural syndromes provide fresh understanding of major issues in population ecology. We identify several general mechanisms for how population ecology phenomena can be influenced by a species or population's average behavioural type, by within-species variation in behavioural type, or by behavioural correlations across time or across ecological contexts. We note, in particular, the importance of behavioural type-dependent dispersal in spatial ecology. We then review recent literature and provide new syntheses for how these general mechanisms produce novel insights on five major issues in population ecology: (1) limits to species' distribution and abundance; (2) species interactions; (3) population dynamics; (4) relative responses to human-induced rapid environmental change; and (5) ecological invasions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

2016-01-01

Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic homogenization. Our conceptual framework based on the match–mismatch between donor and recipient organisms may facilitate understanding of the multiple effects of global change and aid in the development of future research questions.

Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change.

PubMed

Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D; Marti, Eugenia

2016-07-01

Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream-terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream-riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream-terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic homogenization. Our conceptual framework based on the match-mismatch between donor and recipient organisms may facilitate understanding of the multiple effects of global change and aid in the development of future research questions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of Sequence-Dependent Electrophoresis Fingerprinting in Exploring Biodiversity and Population Dynamics of Human Intestinal Microbiota: What Can Be Revealed?

PubMed Central

Huys, Geert; Vanhoutte, Tom; Vandamme, Peter

2008-01-01

Sequence-dependent electrophoresis (SDE) fingerprinting techniques such as denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) have become commonplace in the field of molecular microbial ecology. The success of the SDE technology lays in the fact that it allows visualization of the predominant members of complex microbial ecosystems independent of their culturability and without prior knowledge on the complexity and diversity of the ecosystem. Mainly using the prokaryotic 16S rRNA gene as PCR amplification target, SDE-based community fingerprinting turned into one of the leading molecular tools to unravel the diversity and population dynamics of human intestinal microbiota. The first part of this review covers the methodological concept of SDE fingerprinting and the technical hurdles for analyzing intestinal samples. Subsequently, the current state-of-the-art of DGGE and related techniques to analyze human intestinal microbiota from healthy individuals and from patients with intestinal disorders is surveyed. In addition, the applicability of SDE analysis to monitor intestinal population changes upon nutritional or therapeutic interventions is critically evaluated. PMID:19277102

Extended quantification of the generalized recurrence plot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riedl, Maik; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-04-01

The generalized recurrence plot is a modern tool for quantification of complex spatial patterns. Its application spans the analysis of trabecular bone structures, Turing structures, turbulent spatial plankton patterns, and fractals. But, it is also successfully applied to the description of spatio-temporal dynamics and the detection of regime shifts, such as in the complex Ginzburg-Landau- equation. The recurrence plot based determinism is a central measure in this framework quantifying the level of regularities in temporal and spatial structures. We extend this measure for the generalized recurrence plot considering additional operations of symmetry than the simple translation. It is tested not only on two-dimensional regular patterns and noise but also on complex spatial patterns reconstructing the parameter space of the complex Ginzburg-Landau-equation. The extended version of the determinism resulted in values which are consistent to the original recurrence plot approach. Furthermore, the proposed method allows a split of the determinism into parts which based on laminar and non-laminar regions of the two-dimensional pattern of the complex Ginzburg-Landau-equation. A comparison of these parts with a standard method of image classification, the co-occurrence matrix approach, shows differences especially in the description of patterns associated with turbulence. In that case, it seems that the extended version of the determinism allows a distinction of phase turbulence and defect turbulence by means of their spatial patterns. This ability of the proposed method promise new insights in other systems with turbulent dynamics coming from climatology, biology, ecology, and social sciences, for example.

Managing inherent complexity for sustainable walleye fisheries in Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roseman, Edward F.; Drouin, Richard; Gaden, Marc; Knight, Roger; Tyson, Jeff; Zhao, Yingming; Taylor, William W.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Léonard, Nancy J.

2012-01-01

In Lake Erie, Walleye (Sander vitreus vitreus) is king. The naturally occurring species is the foundation of commercial fishing operations on the Canadian side of the lake and is a much-prized sport fish on the American side. Management of Lake Erie walleye fisheries is complex and takes place in an inter-jurisdictional setting composed of resource agencies from the states of Michigan (MDNR), Ohio (ODNR), Pennsylvania (PFBC), and New York (NYDEC) and the province of Ontario (OMNR). The complexity of walleye management is exacerbated by interactions among environmental and ecological changes in Lake Erie, complex life-history characteristics of the species, public demand for walleye, and cultural/governance differences among managing groups and their respective constituents. Success of future management strategies will largely hinge upon our ability to understand these inherent complexities and to employ tactics that successfully accommodate stock productivity and human demand in a highly dynamic environment. In this report, we review the history of Lake Erie walleye management, outline the multi-jurisdictional process for international management of walleye, and discuss strategies to address challenges facing managers.

Recovery after mass extinction: evolutionary assembly in large-scale biosphere dynamics.

PubMed Central

Solé, Ricard V; Montoya, José M; Erwin, Douglas H

2002-01-01

Biotic recoveries following mass extinctions are characterized by a process in which whole ecologies are reconstructed from low-diversity systems, often characterized by opportunistic groups. The recovery process provides an unexpected window to ecosystem dynamics. In many aspects, recovery is very similar to ecological succession, but important differences are also apparently linked to the innovative patterns of niche construction observed in the fossil record. In this paper, we analyse the similarities and differences between ecological succession and evolutionary recovery to provide a preliminary ecological theory of recoveries. A simple evolutionary model with three trophic levels is presented, and its properties (closely resembling those observed in the fossil record) are compared with characteristic patterns of ecological response to disturbances in continuous models of three-level ecosystems. PMID:12079530

Using Remote Sensing, Weather, and Demographic Data to Create Risk Maps for Zika, Dengue, and Chikungunya in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manore, C.; Conrad, J.; Del Valle, S.; Ziemann, A.; Fairchild, G.; Generous, E. N.

2017-12-01

Mosquito-borne diseases such as Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses have dynamics coupled to weather, ecology, human infrastructure, socio-economic demographics, and behavior. We use time-varying remote sensing and weather data, along with demographics and ecozones to predict risk through time for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya outbreaks in Brazil. We use distributed lag methods to quantify the lag between outbreaks and weather. Our statistical model indicates that the relationships between the variables are complex, but that quantifying risk is possible with the right data at appropriate spatio-temporal scales.

A Model of Practice in Special Education: Dynamic Ecological Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hannant, Barbara; Lim, Eng Leong; McAllum, Ruth

2010-01-01

Dynamic Ecological Analysis (DEA) is a model of practice which increases a teams' efficacy by enabling the development of more effective interventions through collaboration and collective reflection. This process has proved to be useful in: a) clarifying thinking and problem-solving, b) transferring knowledge and thinking to significant parties,…

Predictive models of forest dynamics.

PubMed

Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen

2008-06-13

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.

Social Insects: A Model System for Network Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonneau, Daniel; Blonder, Benjamin; Dornhaus, Anna

Social insect colonies (ants, bees, wasps, and termites) show sophisticated collective problem-solving in the face of variable constraints. Individuals exchange information and materials such as food. The resulting network structure and dynamics can inform us about the mechanisms by which the insects achieve particular collective behaviors and these can be transposed to man-made and social networks. We discuss how network analysis can answer important questions about social insects, such as how effective task allocation or information flow is realized. We put forward the idea that network analysis methods are under-utilized in social insect research, and that they can provide novel ways to view the complexity of collective behavior, particularly if network dynamics are taken into account. To illustrate this, we present an example of network tasks performed by ant workers, linked by instances of workers switching from one task to another. We show how temporal network analysis can propose and test new hypotheses on mechanisms of task allocation, and how adding temporal elements to static networks can drastically change results. We discuss the benefits of using social insects as models for complex systems in general. There are multiple opportunities emergent technologies and analysis methods in facilitating research on social insect network. The potential for interdisciplinary work could significantly advance diverse fields such as behavioral ecology, computer sciences, and engineering.

Natural variation in learning rate and memory dynamics in parasitoid wasps: opportunities for converging ecology and neuroscience

PubMed Central

Hoedjes, Katja M.; Kruidhof, H. Marjolein; Huigens, Martinus E.; Dicke, Marcel; Vet, Louise E. M.; Smid, Hans M.

2011-01-01

Although the neural and genetic pathways underlying learning and memory formation seem strikingly similar among species of distant animal phyla, several more subtle inter- and intraspecific differences become evident from studies on model organisms. The true significance of such variation can only be understood when integrating this with information on the ecological relevance. Here, we argue that parasitoid wasps provide an excellent opportunity for multi-disciplinary studies that integrate ultimate and proximate approaches. These insects display interspecific variation in learning rate and memory dynamics that reflects natural variation in a daunting foraging task that largely determines their fitness: finding the inconspicuous hosts to which they will assign their offspring to develop. We review bioassays used for oviposition learning, the ecological factors that are considered to underlie the observed differences in learning rate and memory dynamics, and the opportunities for convergence of ecology and neuroscience that are offered by using parasitoid wasps as model species. We advocate that variation in learning and memory traits has evolved to suit an insect's lifestyle within its ecological niche. PMID:21106587

System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

PubMed

Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

2015-09-15

With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predator and prey functional traits: understanding the adaptive machinery driving predator–prey interactions

PubMed Central

Schmitz, Oswald

2017-01-01

Predator–prey relationships are a central component of community dynamics. Classic approaches have tried to understand and predict these relationships in terms of consumptive interactions between predator and prey species, but characterizing the interaction this way is insufficient to predict the complexity and context dependency inherent in predator–prey relationships. Recent approaches have begun to explore predator–prey relationships in terms of an evolutionary-ecological game in which predator and prey adapt to each other through reciprocal interactions involving context-dependent expression of functional traits that influence their biomechanics. Functional traits are defined as any morphological, behavioral, or physiological trait of an organism associated with a biotic interaction. Such traits include predator and prey body size, predator and prey personality, predator hunting mode, prey mobility, prey anti-predator behavior, and prey physiological stress. Here, I discuss recent advances in this functional trait approach. Evidence shows that the nature and strength of many interactions are dependent upon the relative magnitude of predator and prey functional traits. Moreover, trait responses can be triggered by non-consumptive predator–prey interactions elicited by responses of prey to risk of predation. These interactions in turn can have dynamic feedbacks that can change the context of the predator–prey interaction, causing predator and prey to adapt their traits—through phenotypically plastic or rapid evolutionary responses—and the nature of their interaction. Research shows that examining predator–prey interactions through the lens of an adaptive evolutionary-ecological game offers a foundation to explain variety in the nature and strength of predator–prey interactions observed in different ecological contexts. PMID:29043073

Predator and prey functional traits: understanding the adaptive machinery driving predator-prey interactions.

PubMed

Schmitz, Oswald

2017-01-01

Predator-prey relationships are a central component of community dynamics. Classic approaches have tried to understand and predict these relationships in terms of consumptive interactions between predator and prey species, but characterizing the interaction this way is insufficient to predict the complexity and context dependency inherent in predator-prey relationships. Recent approaches have begun to explore predator-prey relationships in terms of an evolutionary-ecological game in which predator and prey adapt to each other through reciprocal interactions involving context-dependent expression of functional traits that influence their biomechanics. Functional traits are defined as any morphological, behavioral, or physiological trait of an organism associated with a biotic interaction. Such traits include predator and prey body size, predator and prey personality, predator hunting mode, prey mobility, prey anti-predator behavior, and prey physiological stress. Here, I discuss recent advances in this functional trait approach. Evidence shows that the nature and strength of many interactions are dependent upon the relative magnitude of predator and prey functional traits. Moreover, trait responses can be triggered by non-consumptive predator-prey interactions elicited by responses of prey to risk of predation. These interactions in turn can have dynamic feedbacks that can change the context of the predator-prey interaction, causing predator and prey to adapt their traits-through phenotypically plastic or rapid evolutionary responses-and the nature of their interaction. Research shows that examining predator-prey interactions through the lens of an adaptive evolutionary-ecological game offers a foundation to explain variety in the nature and strength of predator-prey interactions observed in different ecological contexts.