Science.gov

Sample records for computational fire modeling

  1. Computational fire modeling for aircraft fire research

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolette, V.F.

    1996-11-01

    This report summarizes work performed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Federal Aviation Administration. The technical issues involved in fire modeling for aircraft fire research are identified, as well as computational fire tools for addressing those issues, and the research which is needed to advance those tools in order to address long-range needs. Fire field models are briefly reviewed, and the VULCAN model is selected for further evaluation. Calculations are performed with VULCAN to demonstrate its applicability to aircraft fire problems, and also to gain insight into the complex problem of fires involving aircraft. Simulations are conducted to investigate the influence of fire on an aircraft in a cross-wind. The interaction of the fuselage, wind, fire, and ground plane is investigated. Calculations are also performed utilizing a large eddy simulation (LES) capability to describe the large- scale turbulence instead of the more common k-{epsilon} turbulence model. Additional simulations are performed to investigate the static pressure and velocity distributions around a fuselage in a cross-wind, with and without fire. The results of these simulations provide qualitative insight into the complex interaction of a fuselage, fire, wind, and ground plane. Reasonable quantitative agreement is obtained in the few cases for which data or other modeling results exist Finally, VULCAN is used to quantify the impact of simplifying assumptions inherent in a risk assessment compatible fire model developed for open pool fire environments. The assumptions are seen to be of minor importance for the particular problem analyzed. This work demonstrates the utility of using a fire field model for assessing the limitations of simplified fire models. In conclusion, the application of computational fire modeling tools herein provides both qualitative and quantitative insights into the complex problem of aircraft in fires.

  2. Wild Fire Computer Model Helps Firefighters

    SciTech Connect

    Canfield, Jesse

    2012-09-04

    A high-tech computer model called HIGRAD/FIRETEC, the cornerstone of a collaborative effort between U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station and Los Alamos National Laboratory, provides insights that are essential for front-line fire fighters. The science team is looking into levels of bark beetle-induced conditions that lead to drastic changes in fire behavior and how variable or erratic the behavior is likely to be.

  3. Wild Fire Computer Model Helps Firefighters

    ScienceCinema

    Canfield, Jesse

    2016-07-12

    A high-tech computer model called HIGRAD/FIRETEC, the cornerstone of a collaborative effort between U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station and Los Alamos National Laboratory, provides insights that are essential for front-line fire fighters. The science team is looking into levels of bark beetle-induced conditions that lead to drastic changes in fire behavior and how variable or erratic the behavior is likely to be.

  4. Computational modeling of composite material fires.

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Alexander L.; Erickson, Kenneth L.; Hubbard, Joshua Allen; Dodd, Amanda B.

    2010-10-01

    Composite materials behave differently from conventional fuel sources and have the potential to smolder and burn for extended time periods. As the amount of composite materials on modern aircraft continues to increase, understanding the response of composites in fire environments becomes increasingly important. An effort is ongoing to enhance the capability to simulate composite material response in fires including the decomposition of the composite and the interaction with a fire. To adequately model composite material in a fire, two physical model development tasks are necessary; first, the decomposition model for the composite material and second, the interaction with a fire. A porous media approach for the decomposition model including a time dependent formulation with the effects of heat, mass, species, and momentum transfer of the porous solid and gas phase is being implemented in an engineering code, ARIA. ARIA is a Sandia National Laboratories multiphysics code including a range of capabilities such as incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, energy transport equations, species transport equations, non-Newtonian fluid rheology, linear elastic solid mechanics, and electro-statics. To simulate the fire, FUEGO, also a Sandia National Laboratories code, is coupled to ARIA. FUEGO represents the turbulent, buoyantly driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, and combustion. FUEGO and ARIA are uniquely able to solve this problem because they were designed using a common architecture (SIERRA) that enhances multiphysics coupling and both codes are capable of massively parallel calculations, enhancing performance. The decomposition reaction model is developed from small scale experimental data including thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) in both nitrogen and air for a range of heating rates and from available data in the literature. The response of the composite material subject to a radiant heat flux boundary

  5. A simple model for neural computation with firing rates and firing correlations.

    PubMed

    Maass, W

    1998-08-01

    A simple extension of standard neural network models is introduced which provides a model for neural computations that involve both firing rates and firing correlations. Such an extension appears to be useful since it has been shown that firing correlations play a significant computational role in many biological neural systems. Standard neural network models are only suitable for describing neural computations in terms of firing rates. The resulting extended neural network models are still relatively simple, so that their computational power can be analysed theoretically. We prove rigorous separation results, which show that the use of firing correlations in addition to firing rates can drastically increase the computational power of a neural network. Furthermore, one of our separation results also throws new light on a question that involves just standard neural network models: we prove that the gap between the computational power of high-order and first-order neural nets is substantially larger than shown previously.

  6. Infinity computations in cellular automaton forest-fire model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iudin, D. I.; Sergeyev, Ya. D.; Hayakawa, M.

    2015-03-01

    Recently a number of traditional models related to the percolation theory has been considered by means of a new computational methodology that does not use Cantor's ideas and describes infinite and infinitesimal numbers in accordance with the principle 'The whole is greater than the part' (Euclid's Common Notion 5). Here we apply the new arithmetic to a cellular automaton forest-fire model which is connected with the percolation methodology and in some sense combines the dynamic and the static percolation problems and under certain conditions exhibits critical fluctuations. It is well known that there exist two versions of the model: real forest-fire model where fire catches adjacent trees in the forest in the step by step manner and simplified version with instantaneous combustion. Using new approach we observe that in both situations we deal with the same model but with different time resolution. We show that depending on the "microscope" we use the same cellular automaton forest-fire model reveals either instantaneous forest combustion or step by step firing. By means of the new approach it was also observed that as far as we choose an infinitesimal tree growing rate and infinitesimal ratio between the ignition probability and the growth probability we determine the measure or extent of the system size infinity that provides the criticality of the system dynamics. Correspondent inequalities for grosspowers are derived.

  7. Reprint of Infinity computations in cellular automaton forest-fire model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iudin, D. I.; Sergeyev, Ya. D.; Hayakawa, M.

    2015-04-01

    Recently a number of traditional models related to the percolation theory has been considered by means of a new computational methodology that does not use Cantor's ideas and describes infinite and infinitesimal numbers in accordance with the principle 'The whole is greater than the part' (Euclid's Common Notion 5). Here we apply the new arithmetic to a cellular automaton forest-fire model which is connected with the percolation methodology and in some sense combines the dynamic and the static percolation problems and under certain conditions exhibits critical fluctuations. It is well known that there exist two versions of the model: real forest-fire model where fire catches adjacent trees in the forest in the step by step manner and simplified version with instantaneous combustion. Using new approach we observe that in both situations we deal with the same model but with different time resolution. We show that depending on the "microscope" we use the same cellular automaton forest-fire model reveals either instantaneous forest combustion or step by step firing. By means of the new approach it was also observed that as far as we choose an infinitesimal tree growing rate and infinitesimal ratio between the ignition probability and the growth probability we determine the measure or extent of the system size infinity that provides the criticality of the system dynamics. Correspondent inequalities for grosspowers are derived.

  8. Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Weisenpacher, P.; Halada, L.

    2013-02-01

    Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

  9. Development of a numerical computer code and circuit element models for simulation of firing systems

    SciTech Connect

    Carpenter, K.H. . Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering)

    1990-07-02

    Numerical simulation of firing systems requires both the appropriate circuit analysis framework and the special element models required by the application. We have modified the SPICE circuit analysis code (version 2G.6), developed originally at the Electronic Research Laboratory of the University of California, Berkeley, to allow it to be used on MSDOS-based, personal computers and to give it two additional circuit elements needed by firing systems--fuses and saturating inductances. An interactive editor and a batch driver have been written to ease the use of the SPICE program by system designers, and the interactive graphical post processor, NUTMEG, supplied by U. C. Berkeley with SPICE version 3B1, has been interfaced to the output from the modified SPICE. Documentation and installation aids have been provided to make the total software system accessible to PC users. Sample problems show that the resulting code is in agreement with the FIRESET code on which the fuse model was based (with some modifications to the dynamics of scaling fuse parameters). In order to allow for more complex simulations of firing systems, studies have been made of additional special circuit elements--switches and ferrite cored inductances. A simple switch model has been investigated which promises to give at least a first approximation to the physical effects of a non ideal switch, and which can be added to the existing SPICE circuits without changing the SPICE code itself. The effect of fast rise time pulses on ferrites has been studied experimentally in order to provide a base for future modeling and incorporation of the dynamic effects of changes in core magnetization into the SPICE code. This report contains detailed accounts of the work on these topics performed during the period it covers, and has appendices listing all source code written documentation produced.

  10. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models.

    PubMed

    Mazzoni, Alberto; Lindén, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T

    2015-12-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best "LFP proxy", we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with "ground-truth" LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo. PMID:26657024

  11. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

    PubMed Central

    Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T.

    2015-01-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best “LFP proxy”, we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with “ground-truth” LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo. PMID:26657024

  12. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models.

    PubMed

    Mazzoni, Alberto; Lindén, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T

    2015-12-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best "LFP proxy", we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with "ground-truth" LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo.

  13. Enclosure fire dynamics model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bellan, J.

    1979-01-01

    A practical situation of an enclosure fire is presented and why the need for a fire dynamic model is addressed. The difficulties in establishing a model are discussed, along with a brief review of enclosure fire models available. The approximation of the practical situation and the model developed are presented.

  14. BPACK -- A computer model package for boiler reburning/co-firing performance evaluations. User`s manual, Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, K.T.; Li, B.; Payne, R.

    1992-06-01

    This manual presents and describes a package of computer models uniquely developed for boiler thermal performance and emissions evaluations by the Energy and Environmental Research Corporation. The model package permits boiler heat transfer, fuels combustion, and pollutant emissions predictions related to a number of practical boiler operations such as fuel-switching, fuels co-firing, and reburning NO{sub x} reductions. The models are adaptable to most boiler/combustor designs and can handle burner fuels in solid, liquid, gaseous, and slurried forms. The models are also capable of performing predictions for combustion applications involving gaseous-fuel reburning, and co-firing of solid/gas, liquid/gas, gas/gas, slurry/gas fuels. The model package is conveniently named as BPACK (Boiler Package) and consists of six computer codes, of which three of them are main computational codes and the other three are input codes. The three main codes are: (a) a two-dimensional furnace heat-transfer and combustion code: (b) a detailed chemical-kinetics code; and (c) a boiler convective passage code. This user`s manual presents the computer model package in two volumes. Volume 1 describes in detail a number of topics which are of general users` interest, including the physical and chemical basis of the models, a complete description of the model applicability, options, input/output, and the default inputs. Volume 2 contains a detailed record of the worked examples to assist users in applying the models, and to illustrate the versatility of the codes.

  15. [Modeling organic matter dynamics in conifer-broadleaf forests win different site types upon fires: a computational experiment].

    PubMed

    Komarov, A S; Kubasova, T S

    2007-01-01

    The effect of forest fires differing in intensity on organic matter dynamics in forest soils has been assessed in different types of forest sites using the EFIMOD 2 system of models. Differences between the patterns of organic matter dynamics according to scenarios of forest ecosystem development under normal conditions and upon forest fires have been analyzed. Recovery rates of soil organic matter pools after fires depend on their intensity and frequency. The most profound changes take place upon high-intensity crown fires, which may even result in ecosystem destruction. PMID:17966910

  16. Qualitative properties of solutions for the noisy integrate and fire model in computational neuroscience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrillo, José Antonio; Perthame, Benoît; Salort, Delphine; Smets, Didier

    2015-09-01

    The Noisy Integrate-and-Fire equation is a standard non-linear Fokker-Planck equation used to describe the activity of a homogeneous neural network characterized by its connectivity b (each neuron connected to all others through synaptic weights); b  >  0 describes excitatory networks and b  <  0 inhibitory networks. In the excitatory case, it was proved that, once the proportion of neurons that are close to their action potential {{V}\\text{F}} is too high, solutions cannot exist for all times. In this paper, we show a priori uniform bounds in time on the firing rate to discard the scenario of blow-up, and, for small connectivity, we prove qualitative properties on the long time behavior of solutions. The methods are based on the one hand on relative entropy and Poincaré inequalities leading to L2 estimates and on the other hand, on the notion of ‘universal super-solution’ and parabolic regularizing effects to obtain {{L}∞} bounds.

  17. Fire in Earth System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kloster, S.; Lasslop, G.

    2015-12-01

    Fire is the most important disturbance process for vegetation impacting the land carbon cycle. Only recently fire models have been developed that are able to represent the important role of fire for vegetation dynamics and land carbon cycling at global scale. Here, we investigate how fire is represented in Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and present more recent advances in global fire modeling for upcoming CMIPs. Burned area and carbon emissions from fire are among the variables reported in CMIP5. ESMs from CMIP5 use common simulation and output protocols, enabling direct comparisons between models. For this study ESMs were selected from the CMIP5 repository based on the availability of burned area and/or carbon emissions from fires for the historical and the rcp2.6/4.5/8.5 simulations. All ESMs analyzed show a comparable global total burned area of about 150 to 200 Mha burned per year for the present day period, which is lower than satellite based observations (e.g. GFEDv3 ~370 Mha/year). Most models show over the historical period (1850 - 2005) only a weak change in global fire activity and for the future (2006 - 2100) strong increases in fire activity for rcp4.5 and rcp8.5, but only moderate changes for the rcp2.6 projection. Regionally the response differs strongly between the models, which is partly related to different climate projections. We further analysed the simulated changes in fire activity with respect to simulated changes in temperature and precipitation from which no general pattern of the sensitivity of fire carbon emissions towards changes in climate emerged. We will end the presentation with more recent results from the JSBACH-SPITFIRE model to give some insights into the capability of global fire models that will take part in upcoming CMIPs.

  18. Experimental Benchmarking of Fire Modeling Simulations. Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Greiner, Miles; Lopez, Carlos

    2003-10-08

    A series of large-scale fire tests were performed at Sandia National Laboratories to simulate a nuclear waste transport package under severe accident conditions. The test data were used to benchmark and adjust the Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code. CAFE is a computational fluid dynamics fire model that accurately calculates the heat transfer from a large fire to a massive engulfed transport package. CAFE will be used in transport package design studies and risk analyses.

  19. Modelling of fire count data: fire disaster risk in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Boadi, Caleb; Harvey, Simon K; Gyeke-Dako, Agyapomaa

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic dynamics involved in ecological count data require distribution fitting procedures to model and make informed judgments. The study provides empirical research, focused on the provision of an early warning system and a spatial graph that can detect societal fire risks. It offers an opportunity for communities, organizations, risk managers, actuaries and governments to be aware of, and understand fire risks, so that they will increase the direct tackling of the threats posed by fire. Statistical distribution fitting method that best helps identify the stochastic dynamics of fire count data is used. The aim is to provide a fire-prediction model and fire spatial graph for observed fire count data. An empirical probability distribution model is fitted to the fire count data and compared to the theoretical probability distribution of the stochastic process of fire count data. The distribution fitted to the fire frequency count data helps identify the class of models that are exhibited by the fire and provides time leading decisions. The research suggests that fire frequency and loss (fire fatalities) count data in Ghana are best modelled with a Negative Binomial Distribution. The spatial map of observed fire frequency and fatality measured over 5 years (2007-2011) offers in this study a first regional assessment of fire frequency and fire fatality in Ghana. PMID:26702383

  20. Active fire detection using a peat fire radiance model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kushida, K.; Honma, T.; Kaku, K.; Fukuda, M.

    2011-12-01

    The fire fractional area and radiances at 4 and 11 μm of active fires in Indonesia were estimated using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images. Based on these fire information, a stochastic fire model was used for evaluating two fire detection algorithms of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). One is single-image stochastic fire detection, and the other is multitemporal stochastic fire detection (Kushida, 2010 - IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett.). The average fire fractional area per one 1 km2 ×1 km2 pixel was 1.7%; this value corresponds to 32% of that of Siberian and Mongolian boreal forest fires. The average radiances at 4 and 11 μm of active fires were 7.2 W/(m2.sr.μm) and 11.1 W/(m2.sr.μm); these values correspond to 47% and 91% of those of Siberian and Mongolian boreal forest fires, respectively. In order to get false alarms less than 20 points per 106 km2 area, for the Siberian and Mongolian boreal forest fires, omission errors (OE) of 50-60% and about 40% were expected for the detections by using the single and multitemporal images, respectively. For Indonesian peat fires, OE of 80-90% was expected for the detections by using the single images. For the peat-fire detections by using the multitemporal images, OE of about 40% was expected, provided that the background radiances were estimated from past multitemporal images with less than the standard deviation of 1K. The analyses indicated that it was difficult to obtain sufficient active-fire information of Indonesian peat fires from single MODIS images for the fire fighting, and that the use of the multitemporal images was important.

  1. Rapid local synchronization of action potentials: toward computation with coupled integrate-and-fire neurons.

    PubMed Central

    Hopfield, J J; Herz, A V

    1995-01-01

    The collective behavior of interconnected spiking nerve cells is investigated. It is shown that a variety of model systems exhibit the same short-time behavior and rapidly converge to (approximately) periodic firing patterns with locally synchronized action potentials. The dynamics of one model can be described by a downhill motion on an abstract energy landscape. Since an energy landscape makes it possible to understand and program computation done by an attractor network, the results will extend our understanding of collective computation from models based on a firing-rate description to biologically more realistic systems with integrate-and-fire neurons. Images Fig. 2 PMID:7624307

  2. Modeling forest fire severity in California, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keyser, A.; Westerling, A. L.

    2009-12-01

    A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has interrupted the fire regimes of many forest types. This interruption has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function and led to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Identifying areas at risk for fires whose severity is outside the natural fire regime will allow for targeted fuel reduction and mitigation to preserve ecosystem integrity. The probability of large fire occurrence has been successfully predicted and forecast using hydro-climate variables and statistical modeling techniques. We are employing similar statistical techniques to test the potential for predicting and forecasting forest fire severity for California, USA under current and future climate scenarios. We have a mapped fire severity dataset for forest fires spanning twenty-two years (1984-2006) for California as well as a suite of topographic and vegetation data layers from the Landfire project. Our hydro-climate dataset was developed using the VIC hydrologic model with the LDAS parameterization; we thus used the LDAS 1/8° grid to sample our fire severity, topographic and vegetation datasets. Initial exploratory analyses of the hydro-climate data show that low fractional fire severity is positively correlated to cumulative precipitation for the 12-month prior period and the 12-month period ending 6-month prior to the month of the fire, while moderate to high fractional severity is negatively correlated. Relationships opposite in sign, but comparative in magnitude, were found for cumulative adjusted moisture deficit for 12 months prior to the month of fire and the 12-month period ending 6 months prior to the fire. Additionally, fire area was positively correlated to both cumulative moisture deficit variables. Current year March and April snow water equivalent were negatively correlated to moderate and high fractional fire severity. Using only hydro-climate data predictors, we were

  3. Fire detection combining HSI model and improved codebook model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xiang-Yang; Gao, Ming-Yu; He, Zhi-Wei

    2011-06-01

    The paper presents a fire detection method using HSI model and an improved Codebook model. Based on the statistical feature of fire, we can extract fire-like pixels with HSI model. Owing to the fact that fire is extending and flickering, we propose an improved Codebook model for background subtraction. As a result, moving objects (for example, fire, moving cars) can be detected. At last, utilizing a pixel fusion method, we add the dynamic and statistical fire-like pixels with different weighted values. Experimental results show that our fire detection algorithm is effective and robust.

  4. Computer simulation of the fire-tube boiler hydrodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khaustov, Sergei A.; Zavorin, Alexander S.; Buvakov, Konstantin V.; Sheikin, Vyacheslav A.

    2015-01-01

    Finite element method was used for simulating the hydrodynamics of fire-tube boiler with the ANSYS Fluent 12.1.4 engineering simulation software. Hydrodynamic structure and volumetric temperature distribution were calculated. The results are presented in graphical form. Complete geometric model of the fire-tube boiler based on boiler drawings was considered. Obtained results are suitable for qualitative analysis of hydrodynamics and singularities identification in fire-tube boiler water shell.

  5. Users manual for CAFE-3D : a computational fluid dynamics fire code.

    SciTech Connect

    Khalil, Imane; Lopez, Carlos; Suo-Anttila, Ahti Jorma

    2005-03-01

    The Container Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) computer code has been developed to model all relevant fire physics for predicting the thermal response of massive objects engulfed in large fires. It provides realistic fire thermal boundary conditions for use in design of radioactive material packages and in risk-based transportation studies. The CAFE code can be coupled to commercial finite-element codes such as MSC PATRAN/THERMAL and ANSYS. This coupled system of codes can be used to determine the internal thermal response of finite element models of packages to a range of fire environments. This document is a user manual describing how to use the three-dimensional version of CAFE, as well as a description of CAFE input and output parameters. Since this is a user manual, only a brief theoretical description of the equations and physical models is included.

  6. Calculation of shipboard fire conditions for radioactive materials packages with the methods of computational fluid dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Koski, J.A.; Wix, S.D.; Cole, J.K.

    1997-09-01

    Shipboard fires both in the same ship hold and in an adjacent hold aboard a break-bulk cargo ship are simulated with a commercial finite-volume computational fluid mechanics code. The fire models and modeling techniques are described and discussed. Temperatures and heat fluxes to a simulated materials package are calculated and compared to experimental values. The overall accuracy of the calculations is assessed.

  7. Nuclear Facilities Fire Accident Model

    1999-09-01

    4. NATURE OF PROBLEM SOLVED FIRAC predicts fire-induced flows, thermal and material transport, and radioactive and nonradioactive source terms in a ventilation system. It is designed to predict the radioactive and nonradioactive source terms that lead to gas dynamic, material transport, and heat transfer transients. FIRAC's capabilities are directed toward nuclear fuel cycle facilities and the primary release pathway, the ventilation system. However, it is applicable to other facilities and can be used to modelmore » other airflow pathways within a structure. The basic material transport capability of FIRAC includes estimates of entrainment, convection, deposition, and filtration of material. The interrelated effects of filter plugging, heat transfer, and gas dynamics are also simulated. A ventilation system model includes elements such as filters, dampers, ducts, and blowers connected at nodal points to form networks. A zone-type compartment fire model is incorporated to simulate fire-induced transients within a facility. 5. METHOD OF SOLUTION FIRAC solves one-dimensional, lumped-parameter, compressible flow equations by an implicit numerical scheme. The lumped-parameter method is the basic formulation that describes the gas dynamics system. No spatial distribution of parameters is considered in this approach, but an effect of spatial distribution can be approximated by noding. Network theory, using the lumped parameter method, includes a number of system elements, called branches, joined at certain points, called nodes. Ventilation system components that exhibit flow resistance and inertia, such as dampers, ducts, valves, and filters, and those that exhibit flow potential, such as blowers, are located within the branches of the system. The connection points of branches are nodes for components that have finite volumes, such as rooms, gloveboxes, and plenums, and for boundaries where the volume is practically infinite. All internal nodes, therefore, possess some

  8. Fire and materials modeling for transportation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Skocypec, R.D.; Gritzo, L.A.; Moya, J.L.; Nicolette, V.F.; Tieszen, S.R.; Thomas, R.

    1994-10-01

    Fire is an important threat to the safety of transportation systems. Therefore, understanding the effects of fire (and its interaction with materials) on transportation systems is crucial to quantifying and mitigating the impact of fire on the safety of those systems. Research and development directed toward improving the fire safety of transportation systems must address a broad range of phenomena and technologies, including: crash dynamics, fuel dispersion, fire environment characterization, material characterization, and system/cargo thermal response modeling. In addition, if the goal of the work is an assessment and/or reduction of risk due to fires, probabilistic risk assessment technology is also required. The research currently underway at Sandia National Laboratories in each of these areas is summarized in this paper.

  9. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  10. Validation of coupled atmosphere-fire behavior models

    SciTech Connect

    Bossert, J.E.; Reisner, J.M.; Linn, R.R.; Winterkamp, J.L.; Schaub, R.; Riggan, P.J.

    1998-12-31

    Recent advances in numerical modeling and computer power have made it feasible to simulate the dynamical interaction and feedback between the heat and turbulence induced by wildfires and the local atmospheric wind and temperature fields. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, the authors have developed a modeling system that includes this interaction by coupling a high resolution atmospheric dynamics model, HIGRAD, with a fire behavior model, BEHAVE, to predict the spread of wildfires. The HIGRAD/BEHAVE model is run at very high resolution to properly resolve the fire/atmosphere interaction. At present, these coupled wildfire model simulations are computationally intensive. The additional complexity of these models require sophisticated methods for assuring their reliability in real world applications. With this in mind, a substantial part of the research effort is directed at model validation. Several instrumented prescribed fires have been conducted with multi-agency support and participation from chaparral, marsh, and scrub environments in coastal areas of Florida and inland California. In this paper, the authors first describe the data required to initialize the components of the wildfire modeling system. Then they present results from one of the Florida fires, and discuss a strategy for further testing and improvement of coupled weather/wildfire models.

  11. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  12. Fire modeling of the Heiss Dampf Reaktor containment

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolette, V.F.; Yang, K.T.

    1995-09-01

    This report summarizes Sandia National Laboratories` participation in the fire modeling activities for the German Heiss Dampf Reaktor (HDR) containment building, under the sponsorship of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this report is twofold: (1) to summarize Sandia`s participation in the HDR fire modeling efforts and (2) to summarize the results of the international fire modeling community involved in modeling the HDR fire tests. Additional comments, on the state of fire modeling and trends in the international fire modeling community are also included. It is noted that, although the trend internationally in fire modeling is toward the development of the more complex fire field models, each type of fire model has something to contribute to the understanding of fires in nuclear power plants.

  13. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  14. MODELING VENTILATION SYSTEM RESPONSE TO FIRE

    SciTech Connect

    Coutts, D

    2007-04-17

    Fires in facilities containing nuclear material have the potential to transport radioactive contamination throughout buildings and may lead to widespread downwind dispersal threatening both worker and public safety. Development and implementation of control strategies capable of providing adequate protection from fire requires realistic characterization of ventilation system response which, in turn, depends on an understanding of fire development timing and suppression system response. This paper discusses work in which published HEPA filter data was combined with CFAST fire modeling predictions to evaluate protective control strategies for a hypothetical DOE non-reactor nuclear facility. The purpose of this effort was to evaluate when safety significant active ventilation coupled with safety class passive ventilation might be a viable control strategy.

  15. Fire modeling in the Brazilian arc of deforestation through nested coupling of atmosphere, dynamic vegetation, LUCC and fire spread models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tourigny, E.; Nobre, C.; Cardoso, M. F.

    2012-12-01

    Deforestation of tropical forests for logging and agriculture, associated to slash-and-burn practices, is a major source of CO2 emissions, both immediate due to biomass burning and future due to the elimination of a potential CO2 sink. Feedbacks between climate change and LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) can potentially increase the loss of tropical forests and increase the rate of CO2 emissions, through mechanisms such as land and soil degradation and the increase in wildfire occurrence and severity. However, current understanding of the processes of fires (including ignition, spread and consequences) in tropical forests and climatic feedbacks are poorly understood and need further research. As the processes of LUCC and associated fires occur at local scales, linking them to large-scale atmospheric processes requires a means of up-scaling higher resolutions processes to lower resolutions. Our approach is to couple models which operate at various spatial and temporal scales: a Global Climate Model (GCM), Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) and local-scale LUCC and fire spread model. The climate model resolves large scale atmospheric processes and forcings, which are imposed on the surface DGVM and fed-back to climate. Higher-resolution processes such as deforestation, land use management and associated (as well as natural) fires are resolved at the local level. A dynamic tiling scheme allows to represent local-scale heterogeneity while maintaining computational efficiency of the land surface model, compared to traditional landscape models. Fire behavior is modeled at the regional scale (~500m) to represent the detailed landscape using a semi-empirical fire spread model. The relatively coarse scale (as compared to other fire spread models) is necessary due to the paucity of detailed land-cover information and fire history (particularly in the tropics and developing countries). This work presents initial results of a spatially-explicit fire spread model

  16. Fire aerosol experiment and comparisons with computer code predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregory, W. S.; Nichols, B. D.; White, B. W.; Smith, P. R.; Leslie, I. H.; Corkran, J. R.

    1988-08-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory, in cooperation with New Mexico State University, has carried on a series of tests to provide experimental data on fire-generated aerosol transport. These data will be used to verify the aerosol transport capabilities of the FIRAC computer code. FIRAC was developed by Los Alamos for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. It is intended to be used by safety analysts to evaluate the effects of hypothetical fires on nuclear plants. One of the most significant aspects of this analysis deals with smoke and radioactive material movement throughout the plant. The tests have been carried out using an industrial furnace that can generate gas temperatures to 300 C. To date, we have used quartz aerosol with a median diameter of about 10 microns as the fire aerosol simulant. We also plan to use fire-generated aerosols of polystyrene and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). The test variables include two nominal gas flow rates (150 and 300 cu ft/min) and three nominal gas temperatures (ambient, 150 C, and 300 C). The test results are presented in the form of plots of aerosol deposition vs length of duct. In addition, the mass of aerosol caught in a high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter during the tests is reported. The tests are simulated with the FIRAC code, and the results are compared with the experimental data.

  17. Large fire emissions in summer over the southeastern US: Satellite measurements and modeling analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Tao; Liu, Zhen; Wang, Yuhang

    2016-02-01

    We apply satellite fire detection products and air quality modeling to study the contribution of fire emissions to ambient aerosol concentrations over the southeastern U.S. We find that satellite MODIS fire counts show more extensive summer burnings than suggested by the bottom-up fire inventory VISTAS in the summer of 2002. We develop a hybrid emission inventory that combines information from satellite fire counts and the bottom-up inventory by scaling the data of top-down fire count in the other months with its ratio to the bottom-up burned area data in March, the month of most prescribed burning in the Southeast in 2002. Such computed burned areas in summer are higher than the bottom-up inventory in summer; the increase of fire emissions is spatially allocated over satellite observed fire pixels based on the spatial distribution of fuel loading. We show that the updated fire emission inventory leads to notably improved CMAQ model performance of OC, EC and PM2.5, in the Southeast on a regional basis, with reduced model low bias in the summer and better agreement with the observed seasonality. Our study suggests that missing fire emissions in bottom-up inventories can partially explain the underestimated concentrations of PM2.5, OC and EC in the Southeast and demonstrates that satellite fire detection can help improve our understanding of fire emissions and their impact on air quality.

  18. Analysis of NASA JP-4 fire tests data and development of a simple fire model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raj, P.

    1980-01-01

    The temperature, velocity and species concentration data obtained during the NASA fire tests (3m, 7.5m and 15m diameter JP-4 fires) were analyzed. Utilizing the data analysis, a sample theoretical model was formulated to predict the temperature and velocity profiles in JP-4 fires. The theoretical model, which does not take into account the detailed chemistry of combustion, is capable of predicting the extent of necking of the fire near its base.

  19. Current status and advances in flash fire modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Rew, P.J.; Deaves, D.M.; Madison, T.

    1995-12-31

    When a dispersing cloud of flammable vapor is ignited, it can burn in a number of different ways. A flash fire or cloud fire occurs if ignition takes place within the flammable region of a gas cloud, generally at a point remote from the source. A review of the modeling of flash fires (cloud fires) is presented. The present understanding of flash fires is discussed through reference to past incidents and current models. Full scale flash fire trials are reviewed, providing a database of relevant experimental data. Outline proposals are given for improving the current prediction methodologies for the direct (burn fatalities) and indirect (escalation) effects of flash fires.

  20. An experimental and modeling study of fires in ventilated ducts. Part 2: PMMA and stratification

    SciTech Connect

    Comitis, S.C.; Glasser, D.; Young, B.D.

    1996-01-01

    A theoretical and experimental treatment of fire processes in horizontal, ventilated passages, containing an axial distribution of fuel, is presented. Experiments for radially well-mixed flows are performed where gas temperature histories and fire-shaped solid fuel mass axial distributions are acquired from polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA)-fueled fires. The theory developed in part 1 is able to quantitatively model all the experimental results for PMMA fires. In particular, the solid fuel profiles (axial distributions) are modeled from gas-phase information alone. To assess the concept of an ignition temperature as a controlling mechanism for growth a brief fire growth analysis is also performed. A simple approach to study fires in stratified flow conditions is also presented. In conjunction with small-scale experiments on liquid-fueled fires it is shown that a modified one-dimensional model, requiring minimal computational effort, may be used to describe fire-front histories and the temperature profile of the fire plume. Both nonstratified and severely stratified fires display a direct dependence of the steady fire propagation speed with ventilation rate and inverse dependence with initial fuel mass loading. A general model requires a knowledge of the degree of stratification and mixing, in advance of experimentation. A new correlation for stratification using fuel/duct properties and air velocity is proposed as a means of predicting flow regimes.

  1. Using burned area data to explore fire spread in coupled fire and ecosystem models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomez-Dans, J. L.; Lewis, P.; Wooster, M.; Spessa, A.

    2009-04-01

    Fire is a major driver of change in many ecosystems, and ecosystem models should try to understand and model the feedbacks between vegetation and fire. To achieve this, work has started on coupling fire and ecosystem models. The fire model receives modelled vegetation as input for its fuel loads, and simulates ignitions and fire spread from a number of assumptions on fire processes. The fire model simulates fire behaviour, and also estimates how vegetation is killed by the fire. This disturbance is fed back into the ecosystem model. In the current work, we focus on the LPJ ecosystem model and on the SPITFIRE fire model. Both models haven been used in conjunction in the past to model emissions over Southern Africa. SPITFIRE makes assumptions about ignitions (either anthropogenic or due to lightning strikes), live fuel moisture, fuel load and type derived from the ecosystem model, and about fire dynamics. In a typical run at daily temporal resolution, SPITFIRE will simulate an "average fire" in terms of fire dynamics, which is combined with the estimated daily number of ignitions to calculate the burned area on that day. The use of an average fire simplifies modelling at the coarse resolutions (grid cell spacing is often around 0.5 - 1 °) often used in these studies, but the associated penalty of a number of important fire limiting factors, such as human-driven suppression efforts or landscape elements that act as fire blocks. In the current study, we aim to explore landscape fragmentation in fire spread. To this end, we compare LPJ+SPITFIRE simulations fire area distributions with actual fire area observations from spaceborne sensors over a large region in Southern Africa. We introduce the concept of "landscape impedance", a metric that describes the difficulty of a fire spreading due to fragmentation, and estimate it spatially using satellite data. Finally, we introduce these concepts into the SPITFIRE fire model. Recently, burned area data from the MODIS sensor

  2. Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

    2015-01-01

    Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition. PMID:25679957

  3. Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

    2015-01-01

    Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

  4. Application of a Mesoscale Atmospheric Coupled Fire Model BRAMS-FIRE to Alentejo Woodland Fire and Comparison of Performance with the Fire Model WRF-Sfire.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freitas, S. R.; Menezes, I. C.; Stockler, R.; Mello, R.; Ribeiro, N. A.; Corte-Real, J. A. M.; Surový, P.

    2014-12-01

    Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread woodland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the "Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos" (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the "Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas" (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-FIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land near Beja and the other one in the hills of Ossa to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-FIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of woodland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro woodland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system. References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted

  5. National fire danger assessment and ecosystem restoration using remote sensing and ecological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Z.; Rollins, M.

    Hazardous fuel reduction, ecosystem rehabilitation and restoration, and firefighting safety, are land management priorities emphasized by recent national fire policies such as the National Fire Plan. Implementation of these policies requires geospatial data of vegetation conditions, fire fuels, risks, and ecosystem status developed consistently nationwide that can be used at multiple scales (i.e., local, regional, and national). A new research and development project called LANDFIRE is being conducted to develop an integrated methodology to produce geospatial fire data and predictive models for the land management community and a broad range of other applications. Main deliverables include mapped potential and existing vegetation types and vegetation structure parameters, various biophysical data layers, fire fuels models, fire risk layers, as well as state-of-the-art computer models for assessing fire risk, behavior and effects. In this presentation, we will review research results and findings of the LANDFIRE project using results from a prototype study covering central Utah Uinta and Wasatch ecosystems. Particularly we will describe how a consistent and operational vegetation mapping component may be achieved by integrating machine-learning algorithms, field reference data, satellite imagery, and ecologically significant biophysical variables. We will discuss how remotely sensed vegetation cover types and structure can be successfully converted to fire fuel classes and risk layers which are necessary input into fire behavior and fire effect models. Finally we will discuss challenges and opportunities for national implementation of the methodology.

  6. National Fire Fuels and Risks Assessment Using Remote Sensing and Ecological Modeling: Prototype Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Z.; Rollins, M.

    2003-12-01

    Hazardous fuel reduction, ecosystem rehabilitation and restoration, and firefighting safety, are land management priorities emphasized by recent national fire policies such as the National Fire Plan. Implementation of these policies requires geospatial data of vegetation conditions, fire fuels, risks, and ecosystem status developed consistently nationwide that can be used at multiple scales (i.e., local, regional, and national). A new research and development project called LANDFIRE has been conducted to develop an integrated methodology to produce geospatial fire data and predictive models for the land management community and a broad range of other applications. Main deliverables include mapped potential and existing vegetation types and structure variables, various biophysical data layers, fire fuels models, fire risk layers, as well as state-of-the-art computer models for assessing fire risk, behavior and effects. In this presentation, we will review research results and findings of the LANDFIRE project using results from a prototype study covering central Utah Uinta and Wasatch ecosystems. Particularly we will describe how a consistent and operational vegetation mapping component may be achieved by integrating machine-learning algorithms, field reference data, satellite imagery, and ecologically significant biophysical variables. We will discuss how remotely sensed vegetation cover types and structure can be successfully converted to fire fuel classes and risk layers which are necessary input into fire behavior and fire effect models. Finally we will discuss challenges and opportunities for national implementation of the methodology.

  7. Computer Self-Efficacy, Competitive Anxiety and Flow State: Escaping from Firing Online Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hong, Jon-Chao; Pei-Yu, Chiu; Shih, Hsiao-Feng; Lin, Pei-Shin; Hong, Jon-Chao

    2012-01-01

    Flow state in game playing affected by computer self-efficacy and game competitive anxiety was studied. In order to examine the effect of those constructs with high competition, this study select "Escaping from firing online game" which require college students to escape from fire and rescue people and eliminate the fire damage along the way of…

  8. CAFE: A Computer Tool for Accurate Simulation of the Regulatory Pool Fire Environment for Type B Packages

    SciTech Connect

    Gritzo, L.A.; Koski, J.A.; Suo-Anttila, A.J.

    1999-03-16

    The Container Analysis Fire Environment computer code (CAFE) is intended to provide Type B package designers with an enhanced engulfing fire boundary condition when combined with the PATRAN/P-Thermal commercial code. Historically an engulfing fire boundary condition has been modeled as {sigma}T{sup 4} where {sigma} is the Stefan-Boltzman constant, and T is the fire temperature. The CAFE code includes the necessary chemistry, thermal radiation, and fluid mechanics to model an engulfing fire. Effects included are the local cooling of gases that form a protective boundary layer that reduces the incoming radiant heat flux to values lower than expected from a simple {sigma}T{sup 4} model. In addition, the effect of object shape on mixing that may increase the local fire temperature is included. Both high and low temperature regions that depend upon the local availability of oxygen are also calculated. Thus the competing effects that can both increase and decrease the local values of radiant heat flux are included in a reamer that is not predictable a-priori. The CAFE package consists of a group of computer subroutines that can be linked to workstation-based thermal analysis codes in order to predict package performance during regulatory and other accident fire scenarios.

  9. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  10. Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

    PubMed

    Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.

  11. Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

    PubMed

    Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity. PMID:26919456

  12. Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure

    PubMed Central

    Miquelajauregui, Yosune; Cumming, Steven G.; Gauthier, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity. PMID:26919456

  13. Underground Coal-Fires in Xinjiang, China: Assessment of Fire Dynamics from Surface Measurements and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuttke, Manfred W.; Zeng, Qiang; Tanner, David C.; Halisch, Matthias; Cai, Zhong-yong; Wang, Chunli

    2013-04-01

    Spontaneous uncontrolled coal seam fires are a well known phenomenon that causes severe environmental problems and severe impact on natural coal reserves. Coal fires are a worldwide phenomenon, but in particular in Xinjiang, that covers 17.3 % of Chinas area and hosts approx 42 % of its coal resources. The Xinjiang Coalfield Fire Fighting Bureau (XJCFB) has developed technologies and methods to deal with any known fire. Many fires have been extinguished already, but the problem is still there if not even growing. This problem is not only a problem for China due to the loss of valuable energy resources, but it is also a worldwide threat because of the generation of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. In this contribution we describe the latest results from a new conjoint project between China and Germany where on the basis of field investigations and laboratory measurements realistic dynamical models of fire-zones are constructed to increase the understanding of particular coal-fires, to interpret the surface signatures of the coal-fire in terms of location and propagation and to estimate the output of hazardous exhaust products to evaluate the economic benefit of fire extinction. For two exemplary fire-locations, coarse digital terrain models have been produced. These models serve as basis for a detailed surface exploration by terrestrial laser scanning which shall deliver a detailed fracture inventory. Samples of rock and coal have been taken in the field and are characterized in LIAG's petrophysical laboratory in terms of transport properties. All these data serve as input for our detailed numerical fire models. Repeated measurements of the surface changes together with thermal images reveal the dynamics of fire propagation. The numerical models are calibrated by such data and can later be used to quantify the emissions from such a fire zone.

  14. Fire frequency in the Interior Columbia River Basin: Building regional models from fire history data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D.L.; Agee, James K.

    2000-01-01

    Fire frequency affects vegetation composition and successional pathways; thus it is essential to understand fire regimes in order to manage natural resources at broad spatial scales. Fire history data are lacking for many regions for which fire management decisions are being made, so models are needed to estimate past fire frequency where local data are not yet available. We developed multiple regression models and tree-based (classification and regression tree, or CART) models to predict fire return intervals across the interior Columbia River basin at 1-km resolution, using georeferenced fire history, potential vegetation, cover type, and precipitation databases. The models combined semiqualitative methods and rigorous statistics. The fire history data are of uneven quality; some estimates are based on only one tree, and many are not cross-dated. Therefore, we weighted the models based on data quality and performed a sensitivity analysis of the effects on the models of estimation errors that are due to lack of cross-dating. The regression models predict fire return intervals from 1 to 375 yr for forested areas, whereas the tree-based models predict a range of 8 to 150 yr. Both types of models predict latitudinal and elevational gradients of increasing fire return intervals. Examination of regional-scale output suggests that, although the tree-based models explain more of the variation in the original data, the regression models are less likely to produce extrapolation errors. Thus, the models serve complementary purposes in elucidating the relationships among fire frequency, the predictor variables, and spatial scale. The models can provide local managers with quantitative information and provide data to initialize coarse-scale fire-effects models, although predictions for individual sites should be treated with caution because of the varying quality and uneven spatial coverage of the fire history database. The models also demonstrate the integration of

  15. Comparing modelled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, Tim; Brovkin, Victor; Kloster, Silvia; Marlon, Jennifer; Power, Mitch

    2014-05-01

    An Earth System model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, and land surface model JSBACH that includes dynamic vegetation, carbon cycle, and fire regime are used for simulation of natural fire dynamics through the last 8,000 years. To compare the fire model results with the charcoal reconstructions, several output variables of the fire model (burned area, carbon emissions) and several approaches of model output processing are tested. The z-scores out of charcoal dataset have been calculated for the period 8,000 to 200 BP to exclude a period of strong anthropogenic forcing during the last two centuries. The model analysis points mainly to an increasing fire activity during the Holocene for most of the investigated areas, which is in good correspondence to reconstructed fire trends out of charcoal data for most of the tested regions, while for few regions such as Europe the simulated trend and the reconstructed trends are different. The difference between the modeled and reconstructed fire activity could be due to absence of the anthropogenic forcing in the model simulations, but also due to limitations of model assumptions for modeling fire dynamics. For the model trends, the usage of averaging or z-score processing of model output resulted in similar directions of trend. Therefore, the approach of fire model output processing does not effect results of the model-data comparison. Global fire modeling is still in its infancy; improving our representations of fire through validation exercises such as what we present here is thus essential before testing hypotheses about the effects of extreme climate changes on fire behavior and potential feedbacks that result from those changes. Brücher, T., Brovkin, V., Kloster, S., Marlon, J. R., and Power, M. J.: Comparing modelled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 6429-6458, doi:10.5194/cpd-9-6429-2013, 2013.

  16. Fuel models and fire potential from satellite and surface observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burgan, R.E.; Klaver, R.W.; Klarer, J.M.

    1998-01-01

    A national 1-km resolution fire danger fuel model map was derived through use of previously mapped land cover classes and ecoregions, and extensive ground sample data, then refined through review by fire managers familiar with various portions of the U.S. The fuel model map will be used in the next generation fire danger rating system for the U.S., but it also made possible immediate development of a satellite and ground based fire potential index map. The inputs and algorithm of the fire potential index are presented, along with a case study of the correlation between the fire potential index and fire occurrence in California and Nevada. Application of the fire potential index in the Mediterranean ecosystems of Spain, Chile, and Mexico will be tested.

  17. Analyses of fire growth and behavior using new VIIRS 375 m active fire data and a coupled weather-fire model (CAWFE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, W.; Coen, J. L.; Oliva, P.

    2014-12-01

    Recent advances in satellite fire detection and mapping and coupled weather-wildland fire modeling present a new opportunity to routinely map fire extent and progression, examine active fire areas in greater detail, and predict fire growth, intensification, and extreme behaviors of wildfires lasting several days. The new Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP satellite provides 12h global coverage at spatial resolutions of 375 m and 750 m. Compared to coarser resolution products, the new VIIRS 375 m active fire detection product enables early detection of small fires and improved mapping of large wildfires. NCAR's Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire Environment (CAWFE) combines a numerical weather prediction model with wildland fire behavior algorithms to simulate fire behavior. These not only predict a fire's shape and extent, but extreme behaviors such as fire whirls, blow-ups, splitting of the head, flank runs, and pyrocumulus, all resulting from a fire's interaction with its environment, i.e. how the fire creates its own weather. We use the new VIIRS 375 m fire data to initialize and evaluate the CAWFE model, enabling accurate simulation of complex fire behavior during long-lasting wildfires. Compared to traditional models, this approach can now be applied to monitor and predict the growth of a fire or a group of simultaneous wildfires in a management unit from first detection until containment - a previously unattainable goal due to accumulation of model error.

  18. Thermal weapon sights with integrated fire control computers: algorithms and experiences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothe, Hendrik; Graswald, Markus; Breiter, Rainer

    2008-04-01

    The HuntIR long range thermal weapon sight of AIM is deployed in various out of area missions since 2004 as a part of the German Future Infantryman system (IdZ). In 2007 AIM fielded RangIR as upgrade with integrated laser Range finder (LRF), digital magnetic compass (DMC) and fire control unit (FCU). RangIR fills the capability gaps of day/night fire control for grenade machine guns (GMG) and the enhanced system of the IdZ. Due to proven expertise and proprietary methods in fire control, fast access to military trials for optimisation loops and similar hardware platforms, AIM and the University of the Federal Armed Forces Hamburg (HSU) decided to team for the development of suitable fire control algorithms. The pronounced ballistic trajectory of the 40mm GMG requires most accurate FCU-solutions specifically for air burst ammunition (ABM) and is most sensitive to faint effects like levelling or firing up/downhill. This weapon was therefore selected to validate the quality of the FCU hard- and software under relevant military conditions. For exterior ballistics the modified point mass model according to STANAG 4355 is used. The differential equations of motions are solved numerically, the two point boundary value problem is solved iteratively. Computing time varies according to the precision needed and is typical in the range from 0.1 - 0.5 seconds. RangIR provided outstanding hit accuracy including ABM fuze timing in various trials of the German Army and allied partners in 2007 and is now ready for series production. This paper deals mainly with the fundamentals of the fire control algorithms and shows how to implement them in combination with any DSP-equipped thermal weapon sights (TWS) in a variety of light supporting weapon systems.

  19. Modelling fire frequency in a Cerrado savanna protected area.

    PubMed

    Pereira Júnior, Alfredo C; Oliveira, Sofia L J; Pereira, José M C; Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral

    2014-01-01

    Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world's most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997-2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects. PMID:25054540

  20. Large urban fire environment. Trends and model city predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, D.A.; Small, R.D.

    1982-01-01

    The urban fire environment that would result from a megaton-yield nuclear weapon burst is considered. The dependence of temperatures and velocities on fire size, burning intensity, turbulence, and radiation is explored, and specific calculations for three model urban areas are presented. In all cases, high velocity fire winds are predicted. The model-city results show the influence of building density and urban sprawl on the fire environment. Additional calculations consider large-area fires with the burning intensity reduced in a blast-damaged urban center.

  1. Slurry fired heater cold-flow modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Moujaes, S.F.

    1983-07-01

    This report summarizes the experimental and theoretical work leading to the scale-up of the SRC-I Demonstration Plant slurry fired heater. The scale-up involved a theoretical model using empirical relations in the derivation, and employed variables such as flow conditions, liquid viscosity, and slug frequency. Such variables have been shown to affect the heat transfer characteristics ofthe system. The model assumes that, if all other variables remain constant, the heat transfer coefficient can be scaled up proportional to D/sup -2/3/ (D = inside diameter of the fired heater tube). All flow conditions, liquid viscosities, and pipe inclinations relevant to the demonstration plant have indicated a slug flow regime in the slurry fired heater. The annular and stratified flow regimes should be avoided to minimize the potential for excessive pipe erosion and to decrease temperature gradients along the pipe cross section leading to coking and thermal stresses, respectively. Cold-flow studies in 3- and 6.75-in.-inside-diameter (ID) pipes were conducted to determine the effect of scale-up on flow regime, slug frequency, and slug dimensions. The developed model assumes that conduction heat transfer occurs through the liquid film surrounding the gas slug and laminar convective heat transfer to the liquid slug. A weighted average of these two heat transfer mechanisms gives a value for the average pipe heat transfer coefficient. The cold-flow work showed a decrease in the observed slug frequency between the 3- and 6.75-ID pipes. Data on the ratio of gas to liquid slug length in the 6.75-in. pipe are not yet complete, but are expected to yield generally lower values than those obtained in the 3-in. pipe; this will probably affect the scale-up to demonstration plant conditions. 5 references, 15 figures, 7 tables.

  2. Fuel consumption and fire emissions estimates using Fire Radiative Power, burned area and statistical modelling on the fire event scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruecker, Gernot; Leimbach, David; Guenther, Felix; Barradas, Carol; Hoffmann, Anja

    2016-04-01

    Fire Radiative Power (FRP) retrieved by infrared sensors, such as flown on several polar orbiting and geostationary satellites, has been shown to be proportional to fuel consumption rates in vegetation fires, and hence the total radiative energy released by a fire (Fire Radiative Energy, FRE) is proportional to the total amount of biomass burned. However, due to the sparse temporal coverage of polar orbiting and the coarse spatial resolution of geostationary sensors, it is difficult to estimate fuel consumption for single fire events. Here we explore an approach for estimating FRE through temporal integration of MODIS FRP retrievals over MODIS-derived burned areas. Temporal integration is aided by statistical modelling to estimate missing observations using a generalized additive model (GAM) and taking advantage of additional information such as land cover and a global dataset of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), as well as diurnal and annual FRP fluctuation patterns. Based on results from study areas located in savannah regions of Southern and Eastern Africa and Brazil, we compare this method to estimates based on simple temporal integration of FRP retrievals over the fire lifetime, and estimate the potential variability of FRP integration results across a range of fire sizes. We compare FRE-based fuel consumption against a database of field experiments in similar landscapes. Results show that for larger fires, this method yields realistic estimates and is more robust when only a small number of observations is available than the simple temporal integration. Finally, we offer an outlook on the integration of data from other satellites, specifically FireBird, S-NPP VIIRS and Sentinel-3, as well as on using higher resolution burned area data sets derived from Landsat and similar sensors.

  3. Comparing modeled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruecher, T.; Brovkin, V.; Kloster, S.; Marlon, J. R.; Power, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    An Earth System model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, and land surface model JSBACH that includes dynamic vegetation, carbon cycle, and fire regime are used for simulation of natural fire dynamics through the last 8,000 years. To compare the fire model results with the charcoal reconstructions, several output variables of the fire model (burned area, carbon emissions) and several approaches of model output processing are tested. The z-scores out of charcoal dataset have been calculated for the period 8,000 to 200 BP to exclude a period of strong anthropogenic forcing during the last two centuries. The model analysis points mainly to an increasing fire activity during the Holocene for most of the investigated areas, which is in good correspondence to reconstructed fire trends out of charcoal data for most of the tested regions, while for few regions such as Europe the simulated trend and the reconstructed trends are different. The difference between the modeled and reconstructed fire activity could be due to absence of the anthropogenic forcing in the model simulations, but also due to limitations of model assumptions for modeling fire dynamics. For the model trends, the usage of averaging or z-score processing of model output resulted in similar directions of trend. Therefore, the approach of fire model output processing does not effect results of the model-data comparison. Global fire modeling is still in its infancy; improving our representations of fire through validation exercises such as what we present here is thus essential before testing hypotheses about the effects of extreme climate changes on fire behavior and potential feedbacks that result from those changes.

  4. Computational Modeling of Tires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Tanner, John A. (Compiler)

    1995-01-01

    This document contains presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Modeling of Tires. The workshop attendees represented NASA, the Army and Air force, tire companies, commercial software developers, and academia. The workshop objectives were to assess the state of technology in the computational modeling of tires and to provide guidelines for future research.

  5. Comparison of the KAMELEON fire model to large-scale open pool fire data

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolette, V.F.; Gritzo, L.A.; Holen, J.; Magnussen, B.F.

    1994-06-01

    A comparison of the KAMELEON Fire model to large-scale open pool fire experimental data is presented. The model was used to calculate large-scale JP-4 pool fires with and without wind, and with and without large objects in the fire. The effect of wind and large objects on the fire environment is clearly seen. For the pool fire calculations without any object in the fire, excellent agreement is seen in the location of the oxygen-starved region near the pool center. Calculated flame temperatures are about 200--300 K higher than measured. This results in higher heat fluxes back to the fuel pool and higher fuel evaporation rates (by a factor of 2). Fuel concentrations at lower elevations and peak soot concentrations are in good agreement with data. For pool fire calculations with objects, similar trends in the fire environment are observed. Excellent agreement is seen in the distribution of the heat flux around a cylindrical calorimeter in a rectangular pool with wind effects. The magnitude of the calculated heat flux to the object is high by a factor of 2 relative to the test data, due to the higher temperatures calculated. For the case of a large flat plate adjacent to a circular pool, excellent qualitative agreement is seen in the predicted and measured flame shapes as a function of wind.

  6. Hydrological minimal model for fire regime assessment in Mediterranean ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ursino, N.; Rulli, M. C.

    2012-04-01

    A new model for Mediterranean forest fire regime assessment is presented and discussed. The model is based on the experimental evidence that fire is due to both hydrological and ecological processes and the relative role of fuel load versus fuel moisture is an important driver in fire ecology. Diverse scenarios are analyzed where either the hydrological forcing or the feedback between fire and hydrological characterization of the site is changed. The model outcome demonstrates that the two way interaction between hydrological processes, biology and fire regime drives the ecosystem toward a typical fire regime that may be altered either by an evolution of the biological characterization of the site or by a change of the hydrological forcing. This tenet implies that not every fire regime is compatible with the ecohydrological characterization of the site under study. This means that natural (non antropogenic) fire cannot be modeled as an arbitrary external forcing because the coupled hydrological and biological processes determines its statistical characterization, and conversely, the fire regime affects the soil moisture availability and the outcome of different species competition under possible water stress. The new modelling approach presented here, when provided by a proper model parameterization, can advance the capability in predicting and managing fires in ecosystems influenced by climate and land use changes.

  7. Computer Models of Proteins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Dr. Marc Pusey (seated) and Dr. Craig Kundrot use computers to analyze x-ray maps and generate three-dimensional models of protein structures. With this information, scientists at Marshall Space Flight Center can learn how proteins are made and how they work. The computer screen depicts a proten structure as a ball-and-stick model. Other models depict the actual volume occupied by the atoms, or the ribbon-like structures that are crucial to a protein's function.

  8. Comparing modelled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, T.; Brovkin, V.; Kloster, S.; Marlon, J. R.; Power, M. J.

    2014-04-01

    An earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMate and BiosphERe - CLIMBER-2) and a land surface model (JSBACH), which dynamically represent vegetation, are used to simulate natural fire dynamics through the last 8000 yr. Output variables of the fire model (burned area and fire carbon emissions) are used to compare model results with sediment-based charcoal reconstructions. Several approaches for processing model output are also tested. Charcoal data are reported in Z-scores with a base period of 8000-200 BP in order to exclude the strong anthropogenic forcing of fire during the last two centuries. The model-data comparison reveals a robust correspondence in fire activity for most regions considered, while for a few regions, such as Europe, simulated and observed fire histories show different trends. The difference between modelled and observed fire activity may be due to the absence of anthropogenic forcing (e.g. human ignitions and suppression) in the model simulations, and also due to limitations inherent to modelling fire dynamics. The use of spatial averaging (or Z-score processing) of model output did not change the directions of the trends. However, Z-score-transformed model output resulted in higher rank correlations with the charcoal Z-scores in most regions. Therefore, while both metrics are useful, processing model output as Z-scores is preferable to areal averaging when comparing model results to transformed charcoal records.

  9. FireProt: Energy- and Evolution-Based Computational Design of Thermostable Multiple-Point Mutants

    PubMed Central

    Sebestova, Eva; Bendl, Jaroslav; Khare, Sagar; Chaloupkova, Radka; Prokop, Zbynek; Brezovsky, Jan; Baker, David; Damborsky, Jiri

    2015-01-01

    There is great interest in increasing proteins’ stability to enhance their utility as biocatalysts, therapeutics, diagnostics and nanomaterials. Directed evolution is a powerful, but experimentally strenuous approach. Computational methods offer attractive alternatives. However, due to the limited reliability of predictions and potentially antagonistic effects of substitutions, only single-point mutations are usually predicted in silico, experimentally verified and then recombined in multiple-point mutants. Thus, substantial screening is still required. Here we present FireProt, a robust computational strategy for predicting highly stable multiple-point mutants that combines energy- and evolution-based approaches with smart filtering to identify additive stabilizing mutations. FireProt’s reliability and applicability was demonstrated by validating its predictions against 656 mutations from the ProTherm database. We demonstrate that thermostability of the model enzymes haloalkane dehalogenase DhaA and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane dehydrochlorinase LinA can be substantially increased (ΔT m = 24°C and 21°C) by constructing and characterizing only a handful of multiple-point mutants. FireProt can be applied to any protein for which a tertiary structure and homologous sequences are available, and will facilitate the rapid development of robust proteins for biomedical and biotechnological applications. PMID:26529612

  10. Developing a probabilistic fire risk model and its application to fire danger systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penman, T.; Bradstock, R.; Caccamo, G.; Price, O.

    2012-04-01

    Wildfires can result in significant economic losses where they encounter human assets. Management agencies have large budgets devoted to both prevention and suppression of fires, but little is known about the extent to which they alter the probability of asset loss. Prediction of the risk of asset loss as a result of wildfire requires an understanding of a number of complex processes from ignition, fire growth and impact on assets. These processes need to account for the additive or multiplicative effects of management, weather and the natural environment. Traditional analytical methods can only examine only a small subset of these. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) provide a methodology to examine complex environmental problems. Outcomes of a BBN are represented as likelihoods, which can then form the basis for risk analysis and management. Here we combine a range of data sources, including simulation models, empirical statistical analyses and expert opinion to form a fire management BBN. Various management actions have been incorporated into the model including landscape and interface prescribed burning, initial attack and fire suppression. Performance of the model has been tested against fire history datasets with strong correlations being found. Adapting the BBN presented here we are capable of developing a spatial and temporal fire danger rating system. Currently Australian fire danger rating systems are based on the weather. Our model accounts for existing fires, as well as the risk of new ignitions combined with probabilistic weather forecasts to identify those areas which are most at risk of asset loss. Fire growth is modelled with consideration given to management prevention efforts, as well as suppression resources that are available in each geographic locality. At a 10km resolution the model will provide a probability of asset loss which represents a significant step forward in the level of information that can be provided to the general public.

  11. Computational prediction of tube erosion in coal fired power utility boilers

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, B.E.; Fletcher, C.A.J.; Behnia, M.

    1999-10-01

    Erosion of boiler tubes causes serious operational problems in many pulverized coal-fired utility boilers. A new erosion model has been developed in the present study for the prediction of boiler tube erosion. The Lagrangian approach is employed to predict the behavior of the particulate phase. The results of computational prediction of boiler tube erosion and the various parameters causing erosion are discussed in this paper. Comparison of the numerical predictions for a single tube erosion with experimental data shows very good agreement.

  12. Comparing modelled fire dynamics with charcoal records for the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, T.; Brovkin, V.; Kloster, S.; Marlon, J. R.; Power, M. J.

    2013-11-01

    An Earth System model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, and a land surface model JSBACH that represents vegetation dynamically are used to simulate natural fire dynamics through the last 8000 yr. Output variables of the fire model (burned area and fire carbon emissions) are used to compare model results with sediment-based charcoal reconstructions and several approaches of model output processing are tested. Charcoal data are reported in Z-scores and have been used for the period 8000 to 200 BP to exclude the post-Industrial period of strong anthropogenic forcing during the last two centuries. The model-data comparison reveals a robust correspondence in fire trends for most regions considered, while few regions, such as Europe, display different trends between simulated and observed trends. The difference between the modelled and observed fire activity could be linked to an absence of the anthropogenic forcing (e.g., human ignitions and suppression) in the model simulations, but also related to limitations of model assumptions for modelling fire dynamics. For the model trends, the usage of spatial averaging or Z-score processing of model output resulted in similar directions of trend. However, modelled Z-scores resulted in higher rank correlations with the charcoal Z-scores in most of the regions. Therefore, while both metrics are useful, the Z-score processing is more preferable for the modelled fire comparison with the charcoal records than the areal averaging.

  13. Fires

    MedlinePlus

    Whether a fire happens in your home or in the wild, it can be very dangerous. Fire spreads quickly. There is no time to gather ... a phone call. In just two minutes, a fire can become life-threatening. In five minutes, a ...

  14. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kehrwald, Natalie; Aleman, Julie C.; Coughlan, Michael; Courtney Mustaphi, Colin J.; Githumbi, Esther N.; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Power, Mitchell J.

    2016-01-01

    The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1) and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

  15. Modeling post-fire hydro-geomorphic recovery in the Waldo Canyon Fire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinoshita, Alicia; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, Samira; Chin, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Wildfire can have significant impacts on watershed hydrology and geomorphology by changing soil properties and removing vegetation, often increasing runoff and soil erosion and deposition, debris flows, and flooding. Watershed systems may take several years or longer to recover. During this time, post-fire channel changes have the potential to alter hydraulics that influence characteristics such as time of concentration and increase time to peak flow, flow capacity, and velocity. Using the case of the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado (USA), this research will leverage field-based surveys and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to parameterize KINEROS2 (KINematic runoff and EROSion), an event oriented, physically-based watershed runoff and erosion model. We will use the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, which is a GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool that uses commonly available GIS data layers to parameterize, execute, and spatially visualize runoff and sediment yield for watersheds impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Specifically, two models are developed, an unburned (Bear Creek) and burned (Williams) watershed. The models will simulate burn severity and treatment conditions. Field data will be used to validate the burned watersheds for pre- and post-fire changes in infiltration, runoff, peak flow, sediment yield, and sediment discharge. Spatial modeling will provide insight into post-fire patterns for varying treatment, burn severity, and climate scenarios. Results will also provide post-fire managers with improved hydro-geomorphic modeling and prediction tools for water resources management and mitigation efforts.

  16. Computer Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Pronskikh, V. S.

    2014-05-09

    Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

  17. Numerical prediction of heat-flux to massive calorimeters engulfed in regulatory fires with the cask analysis fire environment (CAFE) model

    SciTech Connect

    KOSKI,JORMAN A.; SUO-ANTITLA,AHTI; KRAMER,M. ALEX; GREINER,MILES

    2000-05-11

    Recent observations show that the thermal boundary conditions within large-scale fires are significantly affected by the presence of thermally massive objects. These objects cool the soot and gas near their surfaces, and these effects reduce the incoming radiant heat-flux to values lower than the levels expected from simple {sigma}T{sub fire}{sup 4} models. They also affect the flow and temperature fields in the fire far from their surfaces. The Cask Analysis Fire Environment (CAFE) code has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories to provide an enhanced fire boundary condition for the design of radioactive material packages. CAFE is a set of computer subroutines that use computational fluid mechanics methods to predict convective heat transfer and mixing. It also includes models for fuel and oxygen transport, chemical reaction, and participating-media radiation heat transfer. This code uses two-dimensional computational models so that it has reasonably short turnaround times on standard workstations and is well suited for design and risk studies. In this paper, CAFE is coupled with a commercial finite-element program to model a large cylindrical calorimeter fully engulfed in a pool fire. The time-dependent heat-flux to the calorimeter and the calorimeter surface temperature are determined for several locations around the calorimeter circumference. The variation of heat-flux with location is determined for calorimeters with different diameters and wall thickness, and the observed effects discussed.

  18. A VARI-Based Relative Greenness from MODIS Data for Computing the Fire Potential Index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schneider, P.; Roberts, D. A.; Kyriakidis, P. C.

    2008-01-01

    The Fire Potential Index (FPI) relies on relative greenness (RG) estimates from remote sensing data. The Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI), derived from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery is currently used to calculate RG operationally. Here we evaluated an alternate measure of RG using the Visible Atmospheric Resistant Index (VARI) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data. VARI was chosen because it has previously been shown to have the strongest relationship with Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) out of a wide selection of MODIS-derived indices in southern California shrublands. To compare MODIS-based NDVI-FPI and VARI-FPI, RG was calculated from a 6-year time series of MODIS composites and validated against in-situ observations of LFM as a surrogate for vegetation greenness. RG from both indices was then compared in terms of its performance for computing the FPI using historical wildfire data. Computed RG values were regressed against ground-sampled LFM at 14 sites within Los Angeles County. The results indicate the VARI-based RG consistently shows a stronger relationship with observed LFM than NDVI-based RG. With an average R2 of 0.727 compared to a value of only 0.622 for NDVI-RG, VARI-RG showed stronger relationships at 13 out of 14 sites. Based on these results, daily FPI maps were computed for the years 2001 through 2005 using both NDVI-RG and VARI-RG. These were then validated against 12,490 fire detections from the MODIS active fire product using logistic regression. Deviance of the logistic regression model was 408.8 for NDVI-FPI and 176.2 for VARI-FPI. The c-index was found to be 0.69 and 0.78, respectively. The results show that VARI-FP outperforms NDVI-FPI in distinguishing between fire and no-fire events for historical wildfire data in southern California for the given time period.

  19. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, E.S.

    1988-01-01

    This is the first quarterly report of DOE/PETC Contract No. DE-AC22-87PC79864, entitled, Modeling of Integrated Environmental Control Systems for Coal-Fired Power Plants.'' Refining, creating, and documenting of computer models concerning coal/flue gas cleaning and desulfurization are discussed. (VC)

  20. FIREPLUME model for plume dispersion from fires: Application to uranium hexafluoride cylinder fires

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, D.F.; Dunn, W.E.; Policastro, A.J.; Maloney, D.

    1997-06-01

    This report provides basic documentation of the FIREPLUME model and discusses its application to the prediction of health impacts resulting from releases of uranium hexafluoride (UF{sub 6}) in fires. The model application outlined in this report was conducted for the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Alternative Strategies for the Long-Term Management and Use of Depleted UF{sub 6}. The FIREPLUME model is an advanced stochastic model for atmospheric plume dispersion that predicts the downwind consequences of a release of toxic materials from an explosion or a fire. The model is based on the nonbuoyant atmospheric dispersion model MCLDM (Monte Carlo Lagrangian Dispersion Model), which has been shown to be consistent with available laboratory and field data. The inclusion of buoyancy and the addition of a postprocessor to evaluate time-varying concentrations lead to the current model. The FIREPLUME model, as applied to fire-related UF{sub 6} cylinder releases, accounts for three phases of release and dispersion. The first phase of release involves the hydraulic rupture of the cylinder due to heating of the UF{sub 6} in the fire. The second phase involves the emission of material into the burning fire, and the third phase involves the emission of material after the fire has died during the cool-down period. The model predicts the downwind concentration of the material as a function of time at any point downwind at or above the ground. All together, five fire-related release scenarios are examined in this report. For each scenario, downwind concentrations of the UF{sub 6} reaction products, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride, are provided for two meteorological conditions: (1) D stability with a 4-m/s wind speed, and (2) F stability with a 1-m/s wind speed.

  1. VIEW OF COMPUTER/DATA COLLECTION AREA, SOUTH OF FIRING ROOM NO. ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    VIEW OF COMPUTER/DATA COLLECTION AREA, SOUTH OF FIRING ROOM NO. 3, FACING SOUTHEAST - Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Launch Complex 39, Launch Control Center, LCC Road, East of Kennedy Parkway North, Cape Canaveral, Brevard County, FL

  2. CMS computing model evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandi, C.; Bonacorsi, D.; Colling, D.; Fisk, I.; Girone, M.

    2014-06-01

    The CMS Computing Model was developed and documented in 2004. Since then the model has evolved to be more flexible and to take advantage of new techniques, but many of the original concepts remain and are in active use. In this presentation we will discuss the changes planned for the restart of the LHC program in 2015. We will discuss the changes planning in the use and definition of the computing tiers that were defined with the MONARC project. We will present how we intend to use new services and infrastructure to provide more efficient and transparent access to the data. We will discuss the computing plans to make better use of the computing capacity by scheduling more of the processor nodes, making better use of the disk storage, and more intelligent use of the networking.

  3. NEW IMPROVEMENTS TO MFIRE TO ENHANCE FIRE MODELING CAPABILITIES

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, L.; Smith, A.C.; Yuan, L.

    2016-01-01

    NIOSH's mine fire simulation program, MFIRE, is widely accepted as a standard for assessing and predicting the impact of a fire on the mine ventilation system and the spread of fire contaminants in coal and metal/nonmetal mines, which has been used by U.S. and international companies to simulate fires for planning and response purposes. MFIRE is a dynamic, transient-state, mine ventilation network simulation program that performs normal planning calculations. It can also be used to analyze ventilation networks under thermal and mechanical influence such as changes in ventilation parameters, external influences such as changes in temperature, and internal influences such as a fire. The program output can be used to analyze the effects of these influences on the ventilation system. Since its original development by Michigan Technological University for the Bureau of Mines in the 1970s, several updates have been released over the years. In 2012, NIOSH completed a major redesign and restructuring of the program with the release of MFIRE 3.0. MFIRE's outdated FORTRAN programming language was replaced with an object-oriented C++ language and packaged into a dynamic link library (DLL). However, the MFIRE 3.0 release made no attempt to change or improve the fire modeling algorithms inherited from its previous version, MFIRE 2.20. This paper reports on improvements that have been made to the fire modeling capabilities of MFIRE 3.0 since its release. These improvements include the addition of fire source models of the t-squared fire and heat release rate curve data file, the addition of a moving fire source for conveyor belt fire simulations, improvement of the fire location algorithm, and the identification and prediction of smoke rollback phenomena. All the improvements discussed in this paper will be termed as MFIRE 3.1 and released by NIOSH in the near future. PMID:27375301

  4. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process. It is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomes affected; a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere (2-4 Pg per annum, equiv. 20-30% of global fossil fuel emissions over the last decade); and globally a significant source of particulate aerosols and trace greenhouse gases. Fire is also potentially important as a feedback in the climate system. If climate change favours more intense fire regimes, this would result in a net transfer of carbon from ecosystems to the atmosphere, as well as higher emissions, and under certain circumstances, increased troposphere ozone production- all contributing to positive climate-land surface feedbacks. Quantitative analysis of fire-vegetation-climate interactions has been held back until recently by a lack of consistent global data sets on fire, and by the underdeveloped state of dynamic vegetation-fire modelling. Dynamic vegetation-fire modelling is an essential part of our forecasting armory for examining the possible impacts of climate, fire regimes and land-use on ecosystems and emissions from biomass burning beyond the observation period, as part of future climate or paleo-climate studies. LPJ-GUESS is a process-based model of vegetation dynamics designed for regional to global applications. It combines features of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) with those of the General Ecosystem Simulator (GUESS) in a single, flexible modelling framework. The models have identical representations of eco-physiological and biogeochemical processes, including the hydrological cycle. However, they differ in the detail with which vegetation dynamics and canopy structure are simulated. Simplified, computationally efficient representations are used in the LPJ-DGVM, while LPJ-GUESS employs a gap-model approach, which better captures ecological succession and hence ecosystem changes due to

  5. Computation identifies structural features that govern neuronal firing properties in slowly adapting touch receptors

    PubMed Central

    Lesniak, Daine R; Marshall, Kara L; Wellnitz, Scott A; Jenkins, Blair A; Baba, Yoshichika; Rasband, Matthew N; Gerling, Gregory J; Lumpkin, Ellen A

    2014-01-01

    Touch is encoded by cutaneous sensory neurons with diverse morphologies and physiological outputs. How neuronal architecture influences response properties is unknown. To elucidate the origin of firing patterns in branched mechanoreceptors, we combined neuroanatomy, electrophysiology and computation to analyze mouse slowly adapting type I (SAI) afferents. These vertebrate touch receptors, which innervate Merkel cells, encode shape and texture. SAI afferents displayed a high degree of variability in touch-evoked firing and peripheral anatomy. The functional consequence of differences in anatomical architecture was tested by constructing network models representing sequential steps of mechanosensory encoding: skin displacement at touch receptors, mechanotransduction and action-potential initiation. A systematic survey of arbor configurations predicted that the arrangement of mechanotransduction sites at heminodes is a key structural feature that accounts in part for an afferent’s firing properties. These findings identify an anatomical correlate and plausible mechanism to explain the driver effect first described by Adrian and Zotterman. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01488.001 PMID:24448409

  6. Computationally modeling interpersonal trust

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jin Joo; Knox, W. Bradley; Wormwood, Jolie B.; Breazeal, Cynthia; DeSteno, David

    2013-01-01

    We present a computational model capable of predicting—above human accuracy—the degree of trust a person has toward their novel partner by observing the trust-related nonverbal cues expressed in their social interaction. We summarize our prior work, in which we identify nonverbal cues that signal untrustworthy behavior and also demonstrate the human mind's readiness to interpret those cues to assess the trustworthiness of a social robot. We demonstrate that domain knowledge gained from our prior work using human-subjects experiments, when incorporated into the feature engineering process, permits a computational model to outperform both human predictions and a baseline model built in naiveté of this domain knowledge. We then present the construction of hidden Markov models to investigate temporal relationships among the trust-related nonverbal cues. By interpreting the resulting learned structure, we observe that models built to emulate different levels of trust exhibit different sequences of nonverbal cues. From this observation, we derived sequence-based temporal features that further improve the accuracy of our computational model. Our multi-step research process presented in this paper combines the strength of experimental manipulation and machine learning to not only design a computational trust model but also to further our understanding of the dynamics of interpersonal trust. PMID:24363649

  7. Modeling fire susceptibility to delineate wildland-urban interface for municipal-scale fire risk management.

    PubMed

    Whitman, Ellen; Rapaport, Eric; Sherren, Kate

    2013-12-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to -1 SD from the mean FS value ([Formula: see text]), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.

  8. Reliable Acquisition of RAM Dumps from Intel-Based Apple Mac Computers over FireWire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gladyshev, Pavel; Almansoori, Afrah

    RAM content acquisition is an important step in live forensic analysis of computer systems. FireWire offers an attractive way to acquire RAM content of Apple Mac computers equipped with a FireWire connection. However, the existing techniques for doing so require substantial knowledge of the target computer configuration and cannot be used reliably on a previously unknown computer in a crime scene. This paper proposes a novel method for acquiring RAM content of Apple Mac computers over FireWire, which automatically discovers necessary information about the target computer and can be used in the crime scene setting. As an application of the developed method, the techniques for recovery of AOL Instant Messenger (AIM) conversation fragments from RAM dumps are also discussed in this paper.

  9. Population density methods for stochastic neurons with realistic synaptic kinetics: firing rate dynamics and fast computational methods.

    PubMed

    Apfaltrer, Felix; Ly, Cheng; Tranchina, Daniel

    2006-12-01

    An outstanding problem in computational neuroscience is how to use population density function (PDF) methods to model neural networks with realistic synaptic kinetics in a computationally efficient manner. We explore an application of two-dimensional (2-D) PDF methods to simulating electrical activity in networks of excitatory integrate-and-fire neurons. We formulate a pair of coupled partial differential-integral equations describing the evolution of PDFs for neurons in non-refractory and refractory pools. The population firing rate is given by the total flux of probability across the threshold voltage. We use an operator-splitting method to reduce computation time. We report on speed and accuracy of PDF results and compare them to those from direct, Monte-Carlo simulations. We compute temporal frequency response functions for the transduction from the rate of postsynaptic input to population firing rate, and examine its dependence on background synaptic input rate. The behaviors in the1-D and 2-D cases--corresponding to instantaneous and non-instantaneous synaptic kinetics, respectively--differ markedly from those for a somewhat different transduction: from injected current input to population firing rate output (Brunel et al. 2001; Fourcaud & Brunel 2002). We extend our method by adding inhibitory input, consider a 3-D to 2-D dimension reduction method, demonstrate its limitations, and suggest directions for future study. PMID:17162461

  10. Stochastic fire-diffuse-fire model with realistic cluster dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calabrese, Ana; Fraiman, Daniel; Zysman, Daniel; Ponce Dawson, Silvina

    2010-09-01

    Living organisms use waves that propagate through excitable media to transport information. Ca2+ waves are a paradigmatic example of this type of processes. A large hierarchy of Ca2+ signals that range from localized release events to global waves has been observed in Xenopus laevis oocytes. In these cells, Ca2+ release occurs trough inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors (IP3Rs) which are organized in clusters of channels located on the membrane of the endoplasmic reticulum. In this article we construct a stochastic model for a cluster of IP3R ’s that replicates the experimental observations reported in [D. Fraiman , Biophys. J. 90, 3897 (2006)10.1529/biophysj.105.075911]. We then couple this phenomenological cluster model with a reaction-diffusion equation, so as to have a discrete stochastic model for calcium dynamics. The model we propose describes the transition regimes between isolated release and steadily propagating waves as the IP3 concentration is increased.

  11. Gaps in Data and Modeling Tools for Understanding Fire and Fire Effects in Tundra Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    French, N. H.; Miller, M. E.; Loboda, T. V.; Jenkins, L. K.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Suiter, A.; Hawkins, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    As the ecosystem science community learns more about tundra ecosystems and disturbance in tundra, a review of base data sets and ecological field data for the region shows there are many gaps that need to be filled. In this paper we will review efforts to improve our knowledge of the occurrence and impacts of fire in the North American tundra region completed under a NASA Terrestrial Ecology grant. Our main source of information is remote sensing data from satellite sensors and ecological data from past and recent field data collections by our team, collaborators, and others. Past fire occurrence is not well known for this region compared with other North American biomes. In this presentation we review an effort to use a semi-automated detection algorithm to identify past fire occurrence using the Landsat TM/ETM+ archives, pointing out some of the still-unaddressed issues for a full understanding of fire regime for the region. For this task, fires in Landsat scenes were mapped using the Random Forest classifier (Breiman 2001) to automatically detect potential burn scars. Random Forests is an ensemble classifier that employs machine learning to build a large collection of decision trees that are grown from a random selection of user supplied training data. A pixel's classification is then determined by which class receives the most 'votes' from each tree. We also review the use fire location records and existing modeling methods to quantify emissions from these fires. Based on existing maps of vegetation fuels, we used the approach developed for the Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS; French et al. 2011) to estimate emissions across the tundra region. WFEIS employs the Consume model (http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/research/smoke/consume/index.shtml) to estimate emissions by applying empirically developed relationships between fuels, fire conditions (weather-based fire indexes), and emissions. Here again, we will review the gaps in data and modeling

  12. Modelling threats to water quality from fire suppression chemicals and post-fire erosion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hyde, Kevin; Ziemniak, Chris; Elliot, William; Samuels, William

    2014-05-01

    Misapplication of fire retardant chemicals into streams and rivers may threaten aquatic life. The possible threat depends on the contaminant concentration that, in part, is controlled by dispersion within flowing water. In the event of a misapplication, methods are needed to rapidly estimate the chemical mass entering the waterway and the dispersion and transport within the system. Here we demonstrate a new tool that calculates the chemical mass based on aircraft delivery system, fire chemical type, and stream and intersect geometry. The estimated mass is intended to be transferred into a GIS module that uses real-time stream data to map and simulate the dispersion and transport downstream. This system currently accounts only for aqueous transport. We envision that the GIS module can be modified to incorporate sediment transport, specifically to model movement of sediments from post-fire erosion. This modification could support assessment of threats of post-fire erosion to water quality and water supply systems.

  13. Prediction of fire smoke exposure and air quality degradation: toward a high resolution coupled fire-atmosphere model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mari, Céline; Strada, Susanna; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Bosseur, Frederic; Pialat, Xavier; Humberto Amorin, Jorge; Borrego, Carlos; Freitas, Saulo; Longo, Karla; Martins, Vera; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Paugam, Ronan

    2013-04-01

    Wildfires release significant amounts of trace gas and aerosols into the atmosphere. Firefighters are exposed to wildland fire smoke with adverse health effects. At larger scale, depending on meteorological conditions and fire characteristics, fire emissions can efficiently reduce air quality and visibility, even far away from emission sources. Uncertainties in fire emissions and fire plume dynamics are two important factors which substantially limit the capability of current models to predict smoke exposure and air quality degradation. A collaborative effort recently started in France to develop a coupled fire-atmosphere model based on the fire propagation model ForeFire, developed at the University of Corsica, and the mesoscale non-hydrostatic meteorological model Meso-NH, developed by the University of Toulouse and Meteo-France. ForeFire is a semi-physical model based on an analytical estimation of the rate of spread and an integration with a front tracking method. The fire model is used to provide gridded heating, water vapor and chemical fluxes at high temporal and spatial resolutions to Meso-NH. The coupled model was used in two configurations depending on the spatial resolution: with or without the feedback of the atmosphere on the fire propagation. At kilometric resolution, the model is used off-line to simulate two Mediterranean fires: an arson wildfire that burned in 2005 near Lancon-de-Provence, south-eastern France, and a well documented episode of the Lisbon 2003 fires (in collaboration with the University of Aveiro, Portugal). The question of the injection height is treated with an adaptation of the eddy-diffusivity/mass flux approach for convective boundary layer and compared to the 1D Plume Rise Model (developed at INPE) in contrasted meteorological scenarios. At higher resolution, the two-way coupled model is tested on idealized and real fire cases including ozone chemistry. Future required developments on surface emissions and combustion chemistry

  14. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States.

    SciTech Connect

    Hollingsworth, LaWen T.; Kurth, Laurie,; Parresol, Bernard, R.; Ottmar, Roger, D.; Prichard, Susan J.

    2012-01-01

    Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation System. The fundamental fire intensity algorithms in these systems require surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model surface fire behavior. Canopy base height, stand height, and canopy bulk density are required in addition to surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model crown fire activity. Several surface fuel and canopy classification efforts have used various remote sensing and ecological relationships as core methods to develop the spatial layers. All of these methods depend upon consistent and temporally constant interpretations of crown attributes and their ecological conditions to estimate surface fuel conditions. This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for an 80,000 ha tract of land in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern US using three different data sources. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the US using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern US using satellite imagery. Differences in modeled fire behavior, data development, and data utility are summarized to assist in determining which data source may be most applicable for various land management activities and required analyses. Characterizing fire behavior under different fuel relationships provides insights for natural ecological

  15. BLAZE, a novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land-Surface Model applied to a Re-Assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce the fire-model BLAZE (BLAZe induced land-atmosphere flux Estimator), designed for a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities, fire related fluxes and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE (Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model). This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP(Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution. Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  16. Cellular automaton modelling of lightning-induced and man made forest fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krenn, R.; Hergarten, S.

    2009-10-01

    The impact of forest fires on nature and civilisation is conflicting: on one hand, they play an irreplaceable role in the natural regeneration process, but on the other hand, they come within the major natural hazards in many regions. Their frequency-area distributions show power-law behaviour with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organised criticality. Examples of self-organised critical behaviour can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automaton models. The established self-organised critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the Drossel-Schwabl model apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a modification of the model rules that distinguishes between lightning-induced and man made forest fires and enables a systematic increase of the scaling exponent α by approximately 1/3. In addition, combined simulations using both the original and the modified model rules predict a dependence of the overall event-size distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a splitting of their partial distributions. Lightning is identified as the dominant mechanism in the regime of the largest fires. The results are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database and suggest that lightning-induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modelling, hazard assessment and forest management.

  17. Computer Modeling Of Atomization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giridharan, M.; Ibrahim, E.; Przekwas, A.; Cheuch, S.; Krishnan, A.; Yang, H.; Lee, J.

    1994-01-01

    Improved mathematical models based on fundamental principles of conservation of mass, energy, and momentum developed for use in computer simulation of atomization of jets of liquid fuel in rocket engines. Models also used to study atomization in terrestrial applications; prove especially useful in designing improved industrial sprays - humidifier water sprays, chemical process sprays, and sprays of molten metal. Because present improved mathematical models based on first principles, they are minimally dependent on empirical correlations and better able to represent hot-flow conditions that prevail in rocket engines and are too severe to be accessible for detailed experimentation.

  18. Mapping wildland fuels for fire management across multiple scales: Integrating remote sensing, GIS, and biophysical modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keane, R.E.; Burgan, R.; van Wagtendonk, J.

    2001-01-01

    Fuel maps are essential for computing spatial fire hazard and risk and simulating fire growth and intensity across a landscape. However, fuel mapping is an extremely difficult and complex process requiring expertise in remotely sensed image classification, fire behavior, fuels modeling, ecology, and geographical information systems (GIS). This paper first presents the challenges of mapping fuels: canopy concealment, fuelbed complexity, fuel type diversity, fuel variability, and fuel model generalization. Then, four approaches to mapping fuels are discussed with examples provided from the literature: (1) field reconnaissance; (2) direct mapping methods; (3) indirect mapping methods; and (4) gradient modeling. A fuel mapping method is proposed that uses current remote sensing and image processing technology. Future fuel mapping needs are also discussed which include better field data and fuel models, accurate GIS reference layers, improved satellite imagery, and comprehensive ecosystem models.

  19. Mapping wildland fuels for fire management across multiple scales: integrating remote sensing, GIS, and biophysical modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keane, Robert E.; Burgan, Robert E.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.

    2001-01-01

    Fuel maps are essential for computing spatial fire hazard and risk and simulating fire growth and intensity across a landscape. However, fuel mapping is an extremely difficult and complex process requiring expertise in remotely sensed image classification, fire behavior, fuels modeling, ecology, and geographical information systems (GIS). This paper first presents the challenges of mapping fuels: canopy concealment, fuelbed complexity, fuel type diversity, fuel variability, and fuel model generalization. Then, four approaches to mapping fuels are discussed with examples provided from the literature: (1) field reconnaissance; (2) direct mapping methods; (3) indirect mapping methods; and (4) gradient modeling. A fuel mapping method is proposed that uses current remote sensing and image processing technology. Future fuel mapping needs are also discussed which include better field data and fuel models, accurate GIS reference layers, improved satellite imagery, and comprehensive ecosystem models.

  20. A new model of landscape-scale fire connectivity applied to resource and fire management in the Sonoran Desert, USA.

    PubMed

    Gray, Miranda E; Dickson, Brett G

    2015-06-01

    Understanding where and when on the landscape fire is likely to burn (fire likelihood) and the predicted responses of valued resources (fire effects) will lead to more effective management of wildfire risk in multiple ecosystem types. Fire is a contagious and highly unpredictable process, and an analysis of fire connectivity that incorporates stochasticity may help predict fire likelihood across large extents. We developed a model of fire connectivity based on electrical circuit theory, which is a probabilistic approach to modeling ecological flows. We first parameterized our model to reflect the synergistic influences of fuels, landscape properties, and winds on fire spread in the lower Sonoran Desert of southwestern Arizona, and then defined this landscape as an interconnected network through which to model flow (i.e., fire spread). We interpreted the mapped outputs as fire likelihood and used historical burned area data to evaluate our results. Expected fire effects were characterized based on the degree to which future fire exposure might negatively impact native plant community recovery, taking into account the impact of repeated fire and major vegetation associations. We explored fire effects within habitat for the endangered Sonoran pronghorn antelope and designated wilderness. Model results indicated that fire likelihood was higher in lower elevations, and in areas with lower slopes and topographic roughness. Fire likelihood and effects were predicted to be high in 21% of the currently occupied range of the Sonoran pronghorn and 15% of the additional habitat considered suitable. Across 16 designated wilderness areas, highest predicted fire likelihood and effects fell within low elevation wilderness areas that overlapped large fire perimeters that occurred in 2005. As ongoing changes in climate and land cover are poised to alter the fire regime across extensive and ecologically important areas in the lower Sonoran Desert, an analysis of fire likelihood and

  1. 76 FR 46330 - NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-02

    ... 29, 2009, for a 60-day public comment period (74 FR 68872). Numerous comments were received, and they... COMMISSION NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG); Second Draft... for public comment a document entitled, NUREG-1934 (EPRI 1023259), ``Nuclear Power Plant Fire...

  2. New Model Predicts Fire Activity in South America

    NASA Video Gallery

    UC Irvine scientist Jim Randerson discusses a new model that is able to predict fire activity in South America using sea surface temperature observations of the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. The find...

  3. Modeling Fire Emissions across Central and Southern Italy: Implications for Land and Fire Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    Fires play a relevant role in the global and regional carbon cycle, representing a remarkable source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that influence atmosphere budgets and climate. In addition, the wildfire increase projected in Southern Europe due to climate change (CC) and concurrent exacerbation of extreme weather conditions could also lead to a significant rise in GHG. Recently, in the context of the Italian National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (SNAC), several approaches were identified as valuable tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires, in order to reduce landscape susceptibility and to contribute to the efforts of carbon emission mitigation proposed within the Kyoto protocol. Active forest and fuel management (such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and removal, weed and flammable shrub control, creation of fuel discontinuity) is recognised to be a key element to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires. Despite this, overall there is a lack of studies about the effectiveness of fire emission mitigation strategies. The current work aims to analyse the potential of a combination of fuel management practices in mitigating emissions from forest fires and evaluate valuable and viable options across Central and Southern Italy. These objectives were achieved throughout a retrospective application of an integrated approach combining a fire emission model (FOFEM - First Order Fire Effect Model) with spatially explicit, comprehensive, and accurate fire, vegetation and weather data for the period 2004-2012. Furthermore, a number of silvicultural techniques were combined to develop several fuel management scenarios and then tested to evaluate their potential in mitigating fire emissions.The preliminary results showed the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire behavior, and weather data to reduce bias in quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions and to attain reasonable estimations. Also, the current

  4. Modeling Forest Understory Fires in an Eastern Amazonian Landscape

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alencar, A. A. C.; Solorzano, L. A.; Nepstad, D. C.

    2004-01-01

    Forest understory fires are an increasingly important cause of forest impoverishment in Ammonia, but little is known of the landscape characteristics and climatic phenomena that determine their occurrence. We developed empirical functions relating the occurrence of understory fires to landscape features near Paragominas, a 35- yr-old ranching and logging center in eastern Ammonia. An historical sequence of maps of forest understory fire was created based on field interviews With local farmers and Landsat TM images. Several landscape features that might explain spatial variations in the occurrence of understory fires were also mapped and co-registered for each of the sample dates, including: forest fragment size and shape, forest impoverishment through logging and understory fires, source of ignition (settlements and charcoal pits), roads, forest edges, and others. The spatial relationship between forest understory fire and each landscape characteristic was tested by regression analyses. Fire probability models were then developed for various combinations of landscape characteristics. The analyses were conducted separately for years of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are associated with severe drought in eastern Amazonia, and non-ENS0 years. Most (91 %) of the forest area that burned during the 10-yr sequence caught fire during ENSO years, when severe drought may have increased both forest flammability and the escape of agricultural management fires. Forest understory fires were associated with forest edges, as reported in previous studies from Ammonia. But the strongest predictor of forest fire was the percentage of the forest fragment that had been previously logged or burned. Forest fragment size, distance to charcoal pits, distance to agricultural settlement, proximity to forest edge, and distance to roads were also correlated with forest understory fire. Logistic regression models using information on fragment degradation and distance to ignition

  5. Understanding student computational thinking with computational modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiken, John M.; Caballero, Marcos D.; Douglas, Scott S.; Burk, John B.; Scanlon, Erin M.; Thoms, Brian D.; Schatz, Michael F.

    2013-01-01

    Recently, the National Research Council's framework for next generation science standards highlighted "computational thinking" as one of its "fundamental practices". 9th Grade students taking a physics course that employed the Arizona State University's Modeling Instruction curriculum were taught to construct computational models of physical systems. Student computational thinking was assessed using a proctored programming assignment, written essay, and a series of think-aloud interviews, where the students produced and discussed a computational model of a baseball in motion via a high-level programming environment (VPython). Roughly a third of the students in the study were successful in completing the programming assignment. Student success on this assessment was tied to how students synthesized their knowledge of physics and computation. On the essay and interview assessments, students displayed unique views of the relationship between force and motion; those who spoke of this relationship in causal (rather than observational) terms tended to have more success in the programming exercise.

  6. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  7. Computer modeling of polymers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Terry J.

    1988-01-01

    A Polymer Molecular Analysis Display System (p-MADS) was developed for computer modeling of polymers. This method of modeling allows for the theoretical calculation of molecular properties such as equilibrium geometries, conformational energies, heats of formations, crystal packing arrangements, and other properties. Furthermore, p-MADS has the following capabilities: constructing molecules from internal coordinates (bonds length, angles, and dihedral angles), Cartesian coordinates (such as X-ray structures), or from stick drawings; manipulating molecules using graphics and making hard copy representation of the molecules on a graphics printer; and performing geometry optimization calculations on molecules using the methods of molecular mechanics or molecular orbital theory.

  8. Numerical Modelling by FLAC on Coal Fires in North China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusat, D.; Drebenstedt, C.

    2009-04-01

    Coal fires occur in many countries all over the world (e.g. Australia, China, India, Indonesia, USA and Russia) in underground and on surface. In China the most coal fires occur especially in the North. Economical and environmental damages are the negative effects of the coal fires: coal fires induce open fractures and fissures within the seam and neighbouring rocks. So that these are the predominant pathways for oxygen flow and exhaust gases from a coal fire. All over northern China there are a large number of coal fires, which cause and estimated yearly coal loss of between 100 and 200 million tons ([1], [2], [3]). Spontaneous combustion is a very complicated process and is influenced by number of factors. The process is an exothermic reaction in which the heat generated is dissipated by conduction to the surrounding environment, by radiation, by convection to the ventilation flow, and in some cases by evaporation of moisture from the coal [4]. The coal fires are very serious in China, and the dangerous extent of spontaneous combustion is bad which occupies about 72.9% in mining coal seams. During coal mining in China, the coal fires of spontaneous combustion are quite severity. The dangerous of coal spontaneous combustion has been in 56% of state major coalmines [5]. The 2D and 3D-simulation models describing coal fire damages are strong tools to predict fractures and fissures, to estimate the risk of coal fire propagation into neighbouring seams, to test and evaluate coal fire fighting and prevention methods. The numerical simulations of the rock mechanical model were made with the software for geomechanical and geotechnical calculations, the programs FLAC and FLAC3D [6]. To fight again the coal fires, exist several fire fighting techniques. Water, slurries or liquefied nitrogen can be injected to cool down the coal or cut of air supply with the backfill and thereby extinct the fire. Air supply also can be cut of by covering the coal by soil or sealing of the

  9. MIRO Computational Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broderick, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    A computational model calculates the excitation of water rotational levels and emission-line spectra in a cometary coma with applications for the Micro-wave Instrument for Rosetta Orbiter (MIRO). MIRO is a millimeter-submillimeter spectrometer that will be used to study the nature of cometary nuclei, the physical processes of outgassing, and the formation of the head region of a comet (coma). The computational model is a means to interpret the data measured by MIRO. The model is based on the accelerated Monte Carlo method, which performs a random angular, spatial, and frequency sampling of the radiation field to calculate the local average intensity of the field. With the model, the water rotational level populations in the cometary coma and the line profiles for the emission from the water molecules as a function of cometary parameters (such as outgassing rate, gas temperature, and gas and electron density) and observation parameters (such as distance to the comet and beam width) are calculated.

  10. Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system - Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Levis, S.; Ward, D. S.

    2013-04-01

    Modeling fire as an integral part of an Earth system model (ESM) is vital for quantifying and understanding fire-climate-vegetation interactions on a global scale and from an Earth system perspective. In this study, we introduce to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) the new global fire parameterization proposed by Li et al. (2012a, b), now with a more realistic representation of the anthropogenic impacts on fires, with a parameterization of peat fires, and with other minor modifications. The improved representation of the anthropogenic dimension includes the first attempt to parameterize agricultural fires, the economic influence on fire occurrence, and the socioeconomic influence on fire spread in a global fire model - also an alternative scheme for deforestation fires. The global fire parameterization has been tested in CESM1's land component model CLM4 in a 1850-2004 transient simulation, and evaluated against the satellite-based Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFED3) for 1997-2004. The simulated 1997-2004 average global totals for the burned area and fire carbon emissions in the new fire scheme are 338 Mha yr-1 and 2.1 Pg C yr-1. Its simulations on multi-year average burned area, fire seasonality, fire interannual variability, and fire carbon emissions are reasonable, and show better agreement with GFED3 than the current fire scheme in CESM1 and modified CTEM-FIRE. Moreover, the new fire scheme also estimates the contributions of global fire carbon emissions from different sources. During 1997-2004, the contributions are 8% from agricultural biomass burning, 24% from tropical deforestation and degradation fires, 6% from global peat fires (3.8% from tropical peat fires), and 62% from other fires, which are close to previous assessments based on satellite data, government statistics, or other information sources. In addition, we investigate the importance of direct anthropogenic influence (anthropogenic ignitions and fire suppression) on global fire

  11. Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system - Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Levis, S.; Ward, D. S.

    2012-11-01

    Modeling fire as an integral part of an Earth system model (ESM) is vital for quantifying and understanding fire-climate-vegetation interactions on a global scale and from an Earth system perspective. In this study, we introduce to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) the new global fire parameterization proposed by Li et al. (2012), now with a more realistic representation of the anthropogenic impacts on fires, with a parameterization of peat fires, and with other minor modifications. The improved representation of the anthropogenic dimension includes the first attempt to parameterize agricultural fires, the economic influence on fire occurrence, and the socioeconomic influence on fire spread in a global fire model; also an alternative scheme for deforestation fires. The global fire parameterization has been tested in CESM1's land component model CLM4 in a 1850-2004 transient simulation, and evaluated against the satellite-based Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFED3) for 1997-2004. The simulated 1997-2004 average global totals for the burned area and fire carbon emissions in the new fire scheme are 338 Mha yr-1 and 2.1 Pg C yr-1. Its simulations on multi-year average burned area, fire seasonality, fire interannual variability, and fire carbon emissions are reasonable, and show better agreement with GFED3 than the current fire scheme in CESM1 and modified CTEM-FIRE. Moreover, the new fire scheme also estimates the contributions of global fire carbon emissions from different sources. During 1997-2004, the contributions are 8% from agricultural biomass burning, 27% from tropical deforestation and degradation fires, 5% from global peat fires (3.7% from tropical peat fires), and 60% from other fires, which are close to previous assessments based on satellite data, government statistics, or other information sources. In addition, we investigate the importance of direct anthropogenic influence (anthropogenic ignitions and fire suppression) on global fire

  12. Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Fernández, J.; Chuvieco, E.; Koutsias, N.

    2013-02-01

    Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983-2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local

  13. The Antares computing model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kopper, Claudio; Antares Collaboration

    2013-10-01

    Completed in 2008, Antares is now the largest water Cherenkov neutrino telescope in the Northern Hemisphere. Its main goal is to detect neutrinos from galactic and extra-galactic sources. Due to the high background rate of atmospheric muons and the high level of bioluminescence, several on-line and off-line filtering algorithms have to be applied to the raw data taken by the instrument. To be able to handle this data stream, a dedicated computing infrastructure has been set up. The paper covers the main aspects of the current official Antares computing model. This includes an overview of on-line and off-line data handling and storage. In addition, the current usage of the “IceTray” software framework for Antares data processing is highlighted. Finally, an overview of the data storage formats used for high-level analysis is given.

  14. Electrical modeling of semiconductor bridge (SCB) BNCP detonators with electrochemical capacitor firing sets

    SciTech Connect

    Marx, K.D.; Ingersoll, D.; Bickes, R.W. Jr.

    1998-11-01

    In this paper the authors describe computer models that simulate the electrical characteristics and hence, the firing characteristics and performance of a semiconductor bridge (SCB) detonator for the initiation of BNCP [tetraammine-cis-bis (5-nitro-2H-tetrazolato-N{sup 2}) cobalt(III) perchlorate]. The electrical data and resultant models provide new insights into the fundamental behavior of SCB detonators, particularly with respect to the initiation mechanism and the interaction of the explosive powder with the SCB. One model developed, the Thermal Feedback Model, considers the total energy budget for the system, including the time evolution of the energy delivered to the powder by the electrical circuit, as well as that released by the ignition and subsequent chemical reaction of the powder. The authors also present data obtained using a new low-voltage firing set which employed an advanced electrochemical capacitor having a nominal capacitance of 350,000 {micro}F at 9 V, the maximum voltage rating for this particular device. A model for this firing set and detonator was developed by making measurements of the intrinsic capacitance and equivalent series resistance (ESR < 10 m{Omega}) of a single device. This model was then used to predict the behavior of BNCP SCB detonators fired alone, as well as in a multishot, parallel-string configuration using a firing set composed of either a single 9 V electrochemical capacitor or two of the capacitors wired in series and charged to 18 V.

  15. Integrating fire with hydrological projections: model evaluation to identify uncertainties and tradeoffs in model complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, M.; McKenzie, D.

    2013-12-01

    It is imperative for resource managers to understand how a changing climate might modify future watershed and hydrological processes, and such an understanding is incomplete if disturbances such as fire are not integrated with hydrological projections. Can a robust fire spread model be developed that approximates patterns of fire spread in response to varying topography wind patterns, and fuel loads and moistures, without requiring intensive calibration to each new study area or time frame? We assessed the performance of a stochastic model of fire spread (WMFire), integrated with the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys), for projecting the effects of climatic change on mountain watersheds. We first use Monte Carlo inference to determine that the fire spread model is able to replicate the spatial pattern of fire spread for a contemporary wildfire in Washington State (the Tripod fire), measured by the lacunarity and fractal dimension of the fire. We then integrate a version of WMFire able to replicate the contemporary wildfire with RHESSys and simulate a New Mexico watershed over the calibration period of RHESSys (1941-1997). In comparing the fire spread model to a single contemporary wildfire we found issues in parameter identifiability for several of the nine parameters, due to model input uncertainty and insensitivity of the mathematical function to certain ranges of the parameter values. Model input uncertainty is caused by the inherent difficulty in reconstructing fuel loads and fuel moistures for a fire event after the fire has occurred, as well as by issues in translating variables relevant to hydrological processes produced by the hydrological model to those known to affect fire spread and fire severity. The first stage in the model evaluation aided the improvement of the model in both of these regards. In transporting the model to a new landscape in order to evaluate fire regimes in addition to patterns of fire spread, we find reasonable

  16. Computer modeling and CCPS

    SciTech Connect

    Apul, D.; Gardner, K.; Eighmy, T.

    2005-09-30

    Computer modeling can be an instructive tool to evaluate potential environmental impacts of coal combustion byproducts and other secondary materials used in road and embankment construction. Results from the HYDRUS2D model coupled with an uncertainty analysis suggest that the cadmium fluxes will be significantly less than the output from simpler models with worst case scenarios. Two dimensional analysis of the leaching from the base layer also suggest that concentrations leaching ground water will not be significant for metals unless the pavement is completely damaged and built on sandy soils. Development and verification of these types of tools may lead the way to more informed decision with respect to beneficial use of coal combustion byproducts and other secondary materials. 5 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Computer simulation of vortex combustion processes in fire-tube boilers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khaustov, Sergei A.; Zavorin, Alexander S.; Buvakov, Konstantin V.; Kudryashova, Lidiya D.; Tshelkunova, Anastasiya V.

    2015-01-01

    The article describes computer simulation of the turbulent methane-air combustion in a fire-tube boiler furnace. Computer simulations performed for variants of once-through fire-tube furnace and reversive flame furnace. Options with various twist parameters of the fuel-air jet were examined. The flame structure has been determined computationally, contours of average speed, temperature and concentrations have been acquired. The results of calculations are presented in graphical form. Dependence of construction characteristics on vortex aerodynamic parameters was estimated. Turbulent combustion of natural gas in the reverse flame of fire-tube boiler was studied by means of the ANSYS Fluent 12.1.4 engineering simulation software.

  18. Modeling carbon monoxide spread in underground mine fires

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Liming; Zhou, Lihong; Smith, Alex C.

    2016-01-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a leading cause of mine fire fatalities in underground mines. To reduce the hazard of CO poisoning in underground mines, it is important to accurately predict the spread of CO in underground mine entries when a fire occurs. This paper presents a study on modeling CO spread in underground mine fires using both the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and the MFIRE programs. The FDS model simulating part of the mine ventilation network was calibrated using CO concentration data from full-scale mine fire tests. The model was then used to investigate the effect of airflow leakage on CO concentration reduction in the mine entries. The inflow of fresh air at the leakage location was found to cause significant CO reduction. MFIRE simulation was conducted to predict the CO spread in the entire mine ventilation network using both a constant heat release rate and a dynamic fire source created from FDS. The results from both FDS and MFIRE simulations are compared and the implications of the improved MFIRE capability are discussed. PMID:27069400

  19. [Measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire: a review].

    PubMed

    Hu, Hai-Qing; Wei, Shu-Jing; Jin, Sen; Sun, Long

    2012-05-01

    Forest fire is the main disturbance factor for forest ecosystem, and an important pathway of the decrease of vegetation- and soil carbon storage. Large amount of carbonaceous gases in forest fire can release into atmosphere, giving remarkable impacts on the atmospheric carbon balance and global climate change. To scientifically and effectively measure the carbonaceous gases emission from forest fire is of importance in understanding the significance of forest fire in the carbon balance and climate change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire, which covered three critical issues, i. e., measurement methods of forest fire-induced total carbon emission and carbonaceous gases emission, affecting factors and measurement parameters of measurement model, and cause analysis of the uncertainty in the measurement of the carbon emissions. Three path selections to improve the quantitative measurement of the carbon emissions were proposed, i. e., using high resolution remote sensing data and improving algorithm and estimation accuracy of burned area in combining with effective fuel measurement model to improve the accuracy of the estimated fuel load, using high resolution remote sensing images combined with indoor controlled environment experiments, field measurements, and field ground surveys to determine the combustion efficiency, and combining indoor controlled environment experiments with field air sampling to determine the emission factors and emission ratio.

  20. A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and potential application to fire and fuels management for the Savannah River Site.

    SciTech Connect

    Kurth, Laurie; Hollingsworth, LaWen; Shea, Dan

    2011-12-20

    This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for the Savannah River Site in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. using three data sources: FCCS, LANDFIRE, and SWRA. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the U.S. using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern U.S. using satellite imagery.

  1. Using Computational Fluid Dynamics in the forensic analysis of a prison fire.

    PubMed

    Jahn, Wolfram; Gonzalez, Orelvis; de Dios Rivera, Juan; Torero, José Luis

    2015-08-01

    On the 8th of December of 2010 a fire killed 81 inmates in a Chilean prison. While the collected evidence (including eye witness' accounts) indicated an intentional fire, started by a group of inmates who were fighting against another group and who ignited a mattress and threw it over a bunk bed inside the cell, it could not be established how fast the fire grew and whether the prison guards acted promptly enough to prevent the tragedy. In this context, the public defender office in charge of the case requested an independent investigation in order to determine the approximated time the fire started, and the temperature evolution of the padlocks at the cell doors during the initial stage, based on the construction characteristics of the prison, the existing materials and the evidence collected during the investigation. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) were used to analyse the movement of the smoke and to match the first appearance of smoke on CCTV recordings at locations away from the fire, allowing for the estimation of the time-line of events. The padlock temperatures as a result of hot gases from the fire was also simulated. It was shown that the fire grew quickly and became uncontrollable before the guards could intervene. By the time the guards arrived at the cells' door, the padlocks were shown to be too hot to be handled without protection.

  2. Using Computational Fluid Dynamics in the forensic analysis of a prison fire.

    PubMed

    Jahn, Wolfram; Gonzalez, Orelvis; de Dios Rivera, Juan; Torero, José Luis

    2015-08-01

    On the 8th of December of 2010 a fire killed 81 inmates in a Chilean prison. While the collected evidence (including eye witness' accounts) indicated an intentional fire, started by a group of inmates who were fighting against another group and who ignited a mattress and threw it over a bunk bed inside the cell, it could not be established how fast the fire grew and whether the prison guards acted promptly enough to prevent the tragedy. In this context, the public defender office in charge of the case requested an independent investigation in order to determine the approximated time the fire started, and the temperature evolution of the padlocks at the cell doors during the initial stage, based on the construction characteristics of the prison, the existing materials and the evidence collected during the investigation. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) were used to analyse the movement of the smoke and to match the first appearance of smoke on CCTV recordings at locations away from the fire, allowing for the estimation of the time-line of events. The padlock temperatures as a result of hot gases from the fire was also simulated. It was shown that the fire grew quickly and became uncontrollable before the guards could intervene. By the time the guards arrived at the cells' door, the padlocks were shown to be too hot to be handled without protection. PMID:26126497

  3. Fossil-Fired Boilers

    1993-09-23

    Boiler Performance Model (BPM 3.0S) is a set of computer programs developed to analyze the performance of fossil-fired utility boilers. The programs can model a wide variety of boiler designs, and can model coal, oil, or natural gas firing. The programs are intended for use by engineers performing analyses of alternative fuels, alternative operating modes, or boiler modifications.

  4. Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

    2010-05-01

    Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations

  5. The Zoning of Forest Fire Potential of Gulestan Province Forests Using Granular Computing and MODIS Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jalilzadeh Shadlouei, A.; Delavar, M. R.

    2013-09-01

    There are many vegetation in Iran. This is because of extent of Iran and its width. One of these vegetation is forest vegetation most prevalent in Northern provinces named Guilan, Mazandaran, Gulestan, Ardebil as well as East Azerbaijan. These forests are always threatened by natural forest fires so much so that there have been reports of tens of fires in recent years. Forest fires are one of the major environmental as well as economic, social and security concerns in the world causing much damages. According to climatology, forest fires are one of the important factors in the formation and dispersion of vegetation. Also, regarding the environment, forest fires cause the emission of considerable amounts of greenhouse gases, smoke and dust into the atmosphere which in turn causes the earth temperature to rise up and are unhealthy to humans, animals and vegetation. In agriculture droughts are the usual side effects of these fires. The causes of forest fires could be categorized as either Human or Natural Causes. Naturally, it is impossible to completely contain forest fires; however, areas with high potentials of fire could be designated and analysed to decrease the risk of fires. The zoning of forest fire potential is a multi-criteria problem always accompanied by inherent uncertainty like other multi-criteria problems. So far, various methods and algorithm for zoning hazardous areas via Remote Sensing (RS) and Geospatial Information System (GIS) have been offered. This paper aims at zoning forest fire potential of Gulestan Province of Iran forests utilizing Remote Sensing, Geospatial Information System, meteorological data, MODIS images and granular computing method. Granular computing is part of granular mathematical and one way of solving multi-criteria problems such forest fire potential zoning supervised by one expert or some experts , and it offers rules for classification with the least inconsistencies. On the basis of the experts' opinion, 6 determinative

  6. Wild Fire Emissions for the NOAA Operational HYSPLIT Smoke Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, H. C.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; McQueen, J.; DiMego, G.; Kondragunta, S.; Gorline, J.; Huang, J. P.; Stunder, B.; Stein, A. F.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

    2015-12-01

    Particulate Matter (PM) generated from forest fires often lead to degraded visibility and unhealthy air quality in nearby and downstream areas. To provide near-real time PM information to the state and local agencies, the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) operational HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) smoke modeling system (NWS/HYSPLIT smoke) provides the forecast of smoke concentration resulting from fire emissions driven by the NWS North American Model 12 km weather predictions. The NWS/HYSPLIT smoke incorporates the U.S. Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework (BlueSky) to provide smoke fire emissions along with the input fire locations from the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)'s Hazard Mapping System fire and smoke detection system. Experienced analysts inspect satellite imagery from multiple sensors onboard geostationary and orbital satellites to identify the location, size and duration of smoke emissions for the model. NWS/HYSPLIT smoke is being updated to use a newer version of USFS BlueSky. The updated BlueSky incorporates the Fuel Characteristic Classification System version 2 (FCCS2) over the continental U.S. and Alaska. FCCS2 includes a more detailed description of fuel loadings with additional plant type categories. The updated BlueSky also utilizes an improved fuel consumption model and fire emission production system. For the period of August 2014 and June 2015, NWS/HYSPLIT smoke simulations show that fire smoke emissions with updated BlueSky are stronger than the current operational BlueSky in the Northwest U.S. For the same comparisons, weaker fire smoke emissions from the updated BlueSky were observed over the middle and eastern part of the U.S. A statistical evaluation of NWS/HYSPLIT smoke predicted total column concentration compared to NOAA NESDIS GOES EAST Aerosol Smoke Product retrievals is underway. Preliminary results show that using the newer version

  7. Application of a mesoscale atmospheric coupled fire model BRAMS-SFIRE to Alentejo wildland fire and comparison of performance with the fire model WRF-SFIRE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menezes, Isilda; Freitas, Saulo; Stockler, Rafael; Mello, Rafael; Ribeiro, Nuno; Corte-Real, João; Surový, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Models of fuel with the identification of vegetation patterns of Montado ecosystem in Portugal was incorporated in the mesoscale Brazilian Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and coupled with a spread wildland fire model. The BRAMS-FIRE is a new system developed by the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil) and the Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrâneas (ICAAM, Portugal). The fire model used in this effort was originally, developed by Mandel et al. (2013) and further incorporated in the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). Two grids of high spatial resolution were configured with surface input data and fuel models integrated for simulations using both models BRAMS-SFIRE and WRF-SFIRE. One grid was placed in the plain land and the other one in the hills to evaluate different types of fire propagation and calibrate BRAMS-SFIRE. The objective is simulating the effects of atmospheric circulation in local scale, namely the movements of the heat front and energy release associated to it, obtained by this two models in an episode of wildland fire which took place in Alentejo area in the last decade, for application to planning and evaluations of agro wildland fire risks. We aim to model the behavior of forest fires through a set of equations whose solutions provide quantitative values of one or more variables related to the propagation of fire, described by semi-empirical expressions that are complemented by experimental data allow to obtain the main variables related advancing the perimeter of the fire, as the propagation speed, the intensity of the fire front and fuel consumption and its interaction with atmospheric dynamic system References Mandel, J., J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, and M. Vejmelka, 2013. New features in WRF-SFIRE and the wildfire forecasting and danger system in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, submitted, Numerical Wildfires, Carg

  8. Directed percolation in a two-dimensional stochastic fire-diffuse-fire model.

    PubMed

    Timofeeva, Y; Coombes, S

    2004-12-01

    We establish, from extensive numerical experiments, that the two dimensional stochastic fire-diffuse-fire model belongs to the directed percolation universality class. This model is an idealized model of intracellular calcium release that retains both the discrete nature of calcium stores and the stochastic nature of release. It is formed from an array of noisy threshold elements that are coupled only by a diffusing signal. The model supports spontaneous release events that can merge to form spreading circular and spiral waves of activity. The critical level of noise required for the system to exhibit a nonequilibrium phase transition between propagating and nonpropagating waves is obtained by an examination of the local slope delta (t) of the survival probability Pi(t) proportional exp [-delta(t)] for a wave to propagate for a time t .

  9. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    SciTech Connect

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spread over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.

  10. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

  11. Modeling of Electrical Cable Failure in a Dynamic Assessment of Fire Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucknor, Matthew D.

    complexity to existing cable failure techniques and tuned to empirical data can better approximate the temperature response of a cables located in tightly packed cable bundles. The new models also provide a way to determine the conditions insides a cable bundle which allows for separate treatment of cables on the interior of the bundle from cables on the exterior of the bundle. The results from the DET analysis show that the overall assessed probability of cable failure can be significantly reduced by more realistically accounting for the influence that the fire brigade has on a fire progression scenario. The shielding analysis results demonstrate a significant reduction in the temperature response of a shielded versus a non-shielded cable bundle; however the computational cost of using a fire progression model that can capture these effects may be prohibitive for performing DET analyses with currently available computational fluid dynamics models and computational resources.

  12. Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

    2013-04-01

    Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with

  13. Computational modelling of polymers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celarier, Edward A.

    1991-01-01

    Polymeric materials and polymer/graphite composites show a very diverse range of material properties, many of which make them attractive candidates for a variety of high performance engineering applications. Their properties are ultimately determined largely by their chemical structure, and the conditions under which they are processed. It is the aim of computational chemistry to be able to simulate candidate polymers on a computer, and determine what their likely material properties will be. A number of commercially available software packages purport to predict the material properties of samples, given the chemical structures of their constituent molecules. One such system, Cerius, has been in use at LaRC. It is comprised of a number of modules, each of which performs a different kind of calculation on a molecule in the programs workspace. Particularly, interest is in evaluating the suitability of this program to aid in the study of microcrystalline polymeric materials. One of the first model systems examined was benzophenone. The results of this investigation are discussed.

  14. Modelled vs. reconstructed past fire dynamics - how can we compare?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, Tim; Brovkin, Victor; Kloster, Silvia; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Power, Mitch J.

    2015-04-01

    Fire is an important process that affects climate through changes in CO2 emissions, albedo, and aerosols (Ward et al. 2012). Fire-history reconstructions from charcoal accumulations in sediment indicate that biomass burning has increased since the Last Glacial Maximum (Power et al. 2008; Marlon et al. 2013). Recent comparisons with transient climate model output suggest that this increase in global ?re activity is linked primarily to variations in temperature and secondarily to variations in precipitation (Daniau et al. 2012). In this study, we discuss the best way to compare global ?re model output with charcoal records. Fire models generate quantitative output for burned area and fire-related emissions of CO2, whereas charcoal data indicate relative changes in biomass burning for specific regions and time periods only. However, models can be used to relate trends in charcoal data to trends in quantitative changes in burned area or fire carbon emissions. Charcoal records are often reported as Z-scores (Power et al. 2008). Since Z-scores are non-linear power transformations of charcoal influxes, we must evaluate if, for example, a two-fold increase in the standardized charcoal reconstruction corresponds to a 2- or 200-fold increase in the area burned. In our study we apply the Z-score metric to the model output. This allows us to test how well the model can quantitatively reproduce the charcoal-based reconstructions and how Z-score metrics affect the statistics of model output. The Global Charcoal Database (GCD version 2.5; www.gpwg.org/gpwgdb.html) is used to determine regional and global paleofire trends from 218 sedimentary charcoal records covering part or all of the last 8 ka BP. To retrieve regional and global composites of changes in fire activity over the Holocene the time series of Z-scores are linearly averaged to achieve regional composites. A coupled climate-carbon cycle model, CLIMBA (Brücher et al. 2014), is used for this study. It consists of the

  15. Computer Model Locates Environmental Hazards

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    Catherine Huybrechts Burton founded San Francisco-based Endpoint Environmental (2E) LLC in 2005 while she was a student intern and project manager at Ames Research Center with NASA's DEVELOP program. The 2E team created the Tire Identification from Reflectance model, which algorithmically processes satellite images using turnkey technology to retain only the darkest parts of an image. This model allows 2E to locate piles of rubber tires, which often are stockpiled illegally and cause hazardous environmental conditions and fires.

  16. WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION MODELING FOR CMAQ: AN UPDATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper summarizes recent efforts to improve the methods used for modeling wild land fire emissions both for retrospective modeling and real-time forecasting. These improvements focus on the temporal and spatial resolution of the activity data as well as the methods to estimat...

  17. Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

    2007-01-01

    Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

  18. A novel Fire-Model for the CABLE Land Surface Model applied to a Re-assessment of the Australian Continental Carbon Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieradzik, L. P.; Haverd, V. E.; Briggs, P.; Meyer, C. P.; Canadell, J.

    2014-12-01

    Fires play a major role in the carbon-cycle and the development of global vegetation, especially on the continent of Australia, where vegetation is prone to frequent fire occurences and where regional composition and stand-age distribution is regulated by fire. Furthermore, the probable changes of fire behaviour under a changing climate are still poorly understood and require further investigation.In this presentation we introduce a novel approach to simulate fire-frequencies, fire-intensities and the responses in vegetation. Fire frequencies are prescribed using SIMFIRE (Knorr et al., 2014) or GFED3 (e.g. Giglio et al., 2013). Fire-Line-Intensity (FLI) is computed from meteorological information and fuel loads which are state variables within the C-cycle component of CABLE. This FLI is used as an input to the tree-demography model POP (Population-Order-Physiology; Haverd et al., 2014). Within POP the fire-mortality depends on FLI and tree height distribution.Intensity-dependent combustion factors (CF) are then generated for and applied to live and litter carbon pools as well as the transfers from live pools to litter caused by fire. Thus, both fire and stand characteristics are taken into account which has a legacy effect on future events. Gross C-CO2 emissions from Australian wild fires are larger than Australian territorial fossil fuel emissions. However, the net effect of fire on the Australian terrestrial carbon budget is unknown. We address this by applying the newly-developed fire module, integrated within the CABLE land surface model, and optimised for the Australian region, to a reassessment of the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget.

  19. FireStem2D--a two-dimensional heat transfer model for simulating tree stem injury in fires.

    PubMed

    Chatziefstratiou, Efthalia K; Bohrer, Gil; Bova, Anthony S; Subramanian, Ravishankar; Frasson, Renato P M; Scherzer, Amy; Butler, Bret W; Dickinson, Matthew B

    2013-01-01

    FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem) and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by resolving stem moisture loss, temperatures through the stem, degree of bark charring, and necrotic depth around the stem. We present the results of numerical parameterization and model evaluation experiments for FireStem2D that simulate laboratory stem-heating experiments of 52 tree sections from 25 trees. We also conducted a set of virtual sensitivity analysis experiments to test the effects of unevenness of heating around the stem and with aboveground height using data from two studies: a low-intensity surface fire and a more intense crown fire. The model allows for improved understanding and prediction of the effects of wildland fire on injury and mortality of trees of different species and sizes.

  20. FireStem2D – A Two-Dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Simulating Tree Stem Injury in Fires

    PubMed Central

    Chatziefstratiou, Efthalia K.; Bohrer, Gil; Bova, Anthony S.; Subramanian, Ravishankar; Frasson, Renato P. M.; Scherzer, Amy; Butler, Bret W.; Dickinson, Matthew B.

    2013-01-01

    FireStem2D, a software tool for predicting tree stem heating and injury in forest fires, is a physically-based, two-dimensional model of stem thermodynamics that results from heating at the bark surface. It builds on an earlier one-dimensional model (FireStem) and provides improved capabilities for predicting fire-induced mortality and injury before a fire occurs by resolving stem moisture loss, temperatures through the stem, degree of bark charring, and necrotic depth around the stem. We present the results of numerical parameterization and model evaluation experiments for FireStem2D that simulate laboratory stem-heating experiments of 52 tree sections from 25 trees. We also conducted a set of virtual sensitivity analysis experiments to test the effects of unevenness of heating around the stem and with aboveground height using data from two studies: a low-intensity surface fire and a more intense crown fire. The model allows for improved understanding and prediction of the effects of wildland fire on injury and mortality of trees of different species and sizes. PMID:23894599

  1. Applicability of an integrated plume rise model for the dispersion from wild-land fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kukkonen, J.; Nikmo, J.; Sofiev, M.; Riikonen, K.; Petäjä, T.; Virkkula, A.; Levula, J.; Schobesberger, S.; Webber, D. M.

    2014-11-01

    We have presented an overview of a mathematical model, BUOYANT, that was originally designed for the evaluation of the dispersion of buoyant plumes originated from major warehouse fires. The model addresses the variations of the cross-plume integrated properties of a buoyant plume in the presence of a vertically varying atmosphere. The model also includes a treatment for a rising buoyant plume interacting with an inversion layer. We have compared the model predictions with the data of two prescribed wild-land fire experiments. For the SCAR-C experiment in Quinault (US) in 1994, the predicted vertical extents of the plume at maximum plume rise were between 500 and 800 m and between 200 and 700 m, using two alternative meteorological data sets. The corresponding observed injection heights of the aerosol particles measured using an airborne lidar (light detection and ranging) ranged from 250 to 600 m. For the prescribed burning experiment in Hyytiälä (Finland) in 2009, the model predictions were compared with plume elevations and diameters, determined based on particulate matter number concentration measurements onboard an aeroplane. However, the agreement between modelled and measured results substantially depends on how the properties of the source term are evaluated, especially regarding the convective heat fluxes from the fire. The results demonstrate that in field experiments on wild-land fires, there are substantial uncertainties in estimating both (i) the source terms for the atmospheric dispersion computations and (ii) the relevant vertical meteorological profiles.

  2. Holocene Fires and Atmospheric Carbon Emissions Modeling in Eastern Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carcaillet, C.; Boulant, N.; Richard, P. J.

    2004-12-01

    We modeled the atmospheric carbon released by paleofires from Quebec and Ontario, eastern Canada. The terms of the model include the biome areas, the net rate of carbon released per biome from biomass burning and the fire anomaly per ka versus present-day (0ka) deduced from charcoal series of 37 lakes. Over the Postglacial, the Taiga zone does not matches the pattern of fire history and carbon released of Boreal, Boreal Atlantic Maritime and Mixed Wood Plains zones because of different air masses influences. Our focus on 6ka and 3ka shows that the role of the Mixed Wood Plains and the Boreal Atlantic Maritime zones on the total carbon emissions by fires is negligible both at 6 and 3ka. At 6ka, the Taiga zone plays a key role, while at 3ka the Taiga and the Boreal zones display equivalent contributions to the total carbon released to the atmosphere. The role of fires at 6ka and at 0ka is similar on the total atmospheric carbon mass emission despite changes in biomass burning activity. The role of Taiga at 6ka is compensated by Boreal zone at 0ka. However, the carbon emission at 3ka is significantly higher (ca 30%) than at 6 and 0ka because of sustained high fire activity both in Taiga and Boreal zones. Long-term climatic changes affect the biomass burning activity that acts together with vegetation cover on the global carbon cycle.

  3. Workshop on Computational Turbulence Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    This document contains presentations given at Workshop on Computational Turbulence Modeling held 15-16 Sep. 1993. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the current status and future development of turbulence modeling in computational fluid dynamics for aerospace propulsion systems. Papers cover the following topics: turbulence modeling activities at the Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition (CMOTT); heat transfer and turbomachinery flow physics; aerothermochemistry and computational methods for space systems; computational fluid dynamics and the k-epsilon turbulence model; propulsion systems; and inlet, duct, and nozzle flow.

  4. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference

    PubMed Central

    Cuevas Rivera, Dario; Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J.

    2015-01-01

    The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an ‘intelligent coincidence detector’, which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena. PMID:26451888

  5. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

    PubMed

    Cuevas Rivera, Dario; Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2015-10-01

    The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena. PMID:26451888

  6. Motoneuron model of self-sustained firing after spinal cord injury

    PubMed Central

    Kurian, Mini; Jung, Ranu

    2016-01-01

    Under many conditions spinal motoneurons produce plateau potentials, resulting in self-sustained firing and providing a mechanism for translating short-lasting synaptic inputs into long-lasting motor output. During the acute-stage of spinal cord injury (SCI), the endogenous ability to generate plateaus is lost; however, during the chronic-stage of SCI, plateau potentials reappear with prolonged self-sustained firing that has been implicated in the development of spasticity. In this work, we extend previous modeling studies to systematically investigate the mechanisms underlying the generation of plateau potentials in motoneurons, including the influences of specific ionic currents, the morphological characteristics of the soma and dendrite, and the interactions between persistent inward currents and synaptic input. In particular, the goal of these computational studies is to explore the possible interactions between morphological and electrophysiological changes that occur after incomplete SCI. Model results predict that some of the morphological changes generally associated with the chronic-stage for some types of spinal cord injuries can cause a decrease in self-sustained firing. This and other computational results presented here suggest that the observed increases in self-sustained firing following some types of SCI may occur mainly due to changes in membrane conductances and changes in synaptic activity, particularly changes in the strength and timing of inhibition. PMID:21526348

  7. The ATLAS computing model & distributed computing evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Roger W. L.; Atlas Collaboration

    2012-12-01

    Despite only a brief availability of beam-related data, the typical usage patterns and operational requirements of the ATLAS computing model have been exercised, and the model as originally constructed remains remarkably unchanged. Resource requirements have been revised, and cosmic ray running has exercised much of the model in both duration and volume. The operational model has been adapted in several ways to increase performance and meet the asdelivered functionality of the available middleware. There are also changes reflecting the emerging roles of the different data formats. The model continues to evolve with a heightened focus on end-user performance; the key tools developed in the operational system are outlined, with an emphasis on those under recent development.

  8. COMPUTER MODELS/EPANET

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pipe network flow analysis was among the first civil engineering applications programmed for solution on the early commercial mainframe computers in the 1960s. Since that time, advancements in analytical techniques and computing power have enabled us to solve systems with tens o...

  9. Observed and Modeled Prescribed Fire Emissions and Transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strenfel, S. J.; Clements, C. B.; Freedman, F. R.; Hiers, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    Prescribed fire is a frequently utilized land-management tool in the Southeastern US. It is estimated > one million acres are consumed annually by prescribed fire in Georgia (Lee et al., 2005) and eight million acres in southern states combined (Wade and Lundsford, 1998). In situ data were obtained from three summer (wet season) and winter (dry) fires with a 10 m instrumented tower at the Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center at Ichauway. Fuel consumption and fire-return interval for each burn was ~ 2 tons acre-1 and 2 years, respectively. Emission factors for PM2.5, BC, CO and CO2 were derived using a carbon mass-balance method. Summer (winter) PM2.5, CO, and CO2 emission factors were 13.7 ± 4.1 g kg-1 (8.6 ± 2.0), 25.9 ± 5.2 (16.1 ± 2.2), 1796 ± 30 (1852 ± 13), respectively. Calculated emission factors were compared to emission factors derived from Consume 3.0 model runs. Dry-season winter fires yielded the highest combustion efficiencies. Pollutant dispersion and transport was evaluated with AERMOD utilizing the emission factors and observed meteorological conditions, and results generally agree with in situ measurements made downwind of each burn unit.

  10. (EDMUNDS, WA) WILDLAND FIRE EMISSIONS MODELING: INTEGRATING BLUESKY AND SMOKE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation is a status update of the BlueSky emissions modeling system. BlueSky-EM has been coupled with the Sparse Matrix Operational Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) system, and is now available as a tool for estimating emissions from wildland fires

  11. 8. Photocopy of photograph showing model display NIKE Hercules firing ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    8. Photocopy of photograph showing model display NIKE Hercules firing battery, ARADCOM Argus pg. 11, from Institute for Military History, Carlisle Barracks, Carlisle, PA, March 1, 1961 - NIKE Missile Battery PR-79, East Windsor Road south of State Route 101, Foster, Providence County, RI

  12. Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

    2014-05-01

    Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the

  13. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants. Technical progress report, [period ending December 31, 1987

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, E.S.

    1988-01-01

    This is the first quarterly report of DOE/PETC Contract No. DE-AC22-87PC79864, entitled, ``Modeling of Integrated Environmental Control Systems for Coal-Fired Power Plants.`` Refining, creating, and documenting of computer models concerning coal/flue gas cleaning and desulfurization are discussed. (VC)

  14. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, E.S.

    1988-04-01

    The general goals of this research project is to enhance and transfer to DOE a new computer simulation model for analyzing the performance and cost of integrated environmental control (IEC) systems for coal-fired power plants. A unique capability of this model is the probabilistic representation of uncertainty in model parameters. This capability allows performance and cost to be quantified stochastically in comparing conventional technologies with advanced systems offering improved cost and/or effectiveness for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} removal. Several pre-combustion and post-combustion processes of interest to DOE have been selected for detailed modeling and analysis as part of this project.

  15. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants. Technical progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, E.S.

    1988-04-01

    The general goals of this research project is to enhance and transfer to DOE a new computer simulation model for analyzing the performance and cost of integrated environmental control (IEC) systems for coal-fired power plants. A unique capability of this model is the probabilistic representation of uncertainty in model parameters. This capability allows performance and cost to be quantified stochastically in comparing conventional technologies with advanced systems offering improved cost and/or effectiveness for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} removal. Several pre-combustion and post-combustion processes of interest to DOE have been selected for detailed modeling and analysis as part of this project.

  16. Simulating the effects of fire and climate change on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes using the ecological process model FIRE-BGC

    SciTech Connect

    Keane, R.E.; Ryan, K.; Running, S.W.

    1995-12-31

    A mechanistic successional model, FIRE-BGC (a FIRE BioGeoChemical succession model), has been developed to investigate the role of fire and climate on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests. This FIRE-BGC application explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. Predictions of evapotranspiration are contrasted with and without fire over 200 years of simulation for the McDonald Drainage, Glacier National Park under current climate conditions are provided as an example of the potential of FIRE-BGC.

  17. The application of models to the assessment of fire hazard from consumer products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bukowski, R. W.

    1985-08-01

    The differences among models of fire, fire hazard, and fire risk are described. The use of field, zone, and network models for fire hazard assessment is discussed. A number of available single and multiple compartment models are described. Key considerations with respect to the use of the current models by the Consumer Product Safety Commission for hazard assessment from upholstered furniture and mattress fires is presented. Modifications necessary to improve the capability of these models for hazard assessments are identified. Model validation, output presentation, and data sources are discussed. Recommendations on specific models for the sponsor to consider for further study and use are provided.

  18. Assessing the outstanding 2003 fire events in Portugal with a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trigo, Ricardo; Jerez, Sonia; Camara, Carlos; Montávez, Juan Pedro

    2013-04-01

    The heatwave that struck western Iberia in the early days of August 2003 was characterized by record high values of both maximum (47.3°C) and minimum (30.6°c) temperatures in Portugal, associated with extremely low humidity levels and relatively intense wind speed (Trigo et al., 2006). These conditions triggered the most devastating sequence of large fires ever registered in Portugal. The estimated total burnt area was about 450.000 ha, including 280.000 ha of forest (Pereira et al., 2011). The outstanding total burnt area value corresponds to roughly 5% of the Portuguese territory, and represents approximately twice the previous maximum observed in 1998 (~220.000 ha), and about four times the long-term average observed between 1980 and 2004. Here we characterise this unusual episode using meteorological fields obtained from both observations and a regional climate model. In this work we use the longest (49-years) high-resolution regional climate simulation available driven by reanalysis data spanning from 1959 to 2007 and covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. This long run was obtained using the MM5 model with a spatial resolution of 10 km. Using this high spatial and temporal resolution we have computed the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System to produce hourly values of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behaviour (van Wagner, 1987). We show the temporal evolution of high resolution patterns for several fire related variables during the most important days for triggering new fires (the first week of August 2003). Besides the absolute value of Tmax, Tmin, wind (speed and direction), relative humidity and FWI we also evaluate the corresponding anomalies of these fields, obtained after removing the long-term smoothed daily climatology. Pereira M.G., Malamude B.D., Trigo R.M., Alves P.I. (2011) "The History and Characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese Rural Fire Database

  19. Predictive models for the occurrence and size of extreme fire events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavros, E. N.; Larkin, N. K.; McKenzie, D.; Steel, A.; Strand, T. T.

    2011-12-01

    Expected changes in climate are thought to increase the chance of large intense fires. Anticipating extreme fire events is an important component of broad-scale land management and allocation of firefighting resources. We are developing two models for large fire occurrence and size as a function of environmental conditions, with the goal of predicting future fire sizes and locations. We use climate data from 1977 to 2009 to calculate indices that have been shown in previous work to be indicative of large fire events, and are surrogates for drought, fuel conditions, sustained atmospheric blocking patterns, and fire behavior. The first model is a screening function that estimates the probability of a large fire given environmental conditions. The second model is a scaling function that estimates the size of these fires, given the environment, and is conditional on their occurrence. These functions can be coupled with climate projections to predict future distributions of large fires.

  20. Standard for fire protection of DOE electronic computer/data processing systems

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1984-01-01

    The standard applies to all essential electronic computer data processing equipment as well as the storage facilities, associated utilities, and air conditioning systems. The types of construction necessary for a computer building and computer rooms are described, including location and perimeter separation and certain operating requirements. Fire protection systems that may be employed for computer equipment protection are described. Also discussed are the necessary utilities required in a computer area and the emergency controls required for shutdown of these utilities. The types of storage and records and the protection required for each type are discussed. Specific requirements are listed unique to mobile equipment. Emergency operations are described, including programs for firefighting and for the restoration of damaged records. (LEW)

  1. Standard for fire protection of DOE electronic computer/data processing systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1984-01-01

    The standard which applies to all essential electronic computer data processing equipment and the storage facilities, associated utilities, and air conditioning systems is outlined. The types of construction necessary for a computer building and computer rooms are described, which includes location and perimeter separation anc certain operating requirements. Fire protection systems that may be employed for computer equipment protection are described. The necessary utilities required in a computer area and the emergency controls required for shutdown of these utilities and the types of storage and records and the protection required for each type are discussed. Specific requirements are listed unique to mobile equipment. Emergency operations programs for firefighting and for the restoration of damaged records are described.

  2. Computational Models for Neuromuscular Function

    PubMed Central

    Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J.; Hoffmann, Heiko; Kurse, Manish U.; Kutch, Jason J.; Theodorou, Evangelos A.

    2011-01-01

    Computational models of the neuromuscular system hold the potential to allow us to reach a deeper understanding of neuromuscular function and clinical rehabilitation by complementing experimentation. By serving as a means to distill and explore specific hypotheses, computational models emerge from prior experimental data and motivate future experimental work. Here we review computational tools used to understand neuromuscular function including musculoskeletal modeling, machine learning, control theory, and statistical model analysis. We conclude that these tools, when used in combination, have the potential to further our understanding of neuromuscular function by serving as a rigorous means to test scientific hypotheses in ways that complement and leverage experimental data. PMID:21687779

  3. Modeling of multi-strata forest fire severity using Landsat TM Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Qingmin; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2011-02-01

    Most of fire severity studies use field measures of composite burn index (CBI) to represent forest fire severity and fit the relationships between CBI and Landsat imagery derived differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) to predict and map fire severity at unsampled locations. However, less attention has been paid on the multi-strata forest fire severity, which represents fire activities and ecological responses at different forest layers. In this study, using field measured fire severity across five forest strata of dominant tree, intermediate-sized tree, shrub, herb, substrate layers, and the aggregated measure of CBI as response variables, we fit statistical models with predictors of Landsat TM bands, Landsat derived NBR or dNBR, image differencing, and image ratioing data. We model multi-strata forest fire in the historical recorded largest wildfire in California, the Big Sur Basin Complex fire. We explore the potential contributions of the post-fire Landsat bands, image differencing, image ratioing to fire severity modeling and compare with the widely used NBR and dNBR. Models using combinations of post-fire Landsat bands perform much better than NBR, dNBR, image differencing, and image ratioing. We predict and map multi-strata forest fire severity across the whole Big Sur fire areas, and find that the overall measure CBI is not optimal to represent multi-strata forest fire severity.

  4. Fire disturbance and vegetation dynamics : analysis and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thonicke, Kirsten

    2003-04-01

    Studies of the role of disturbance in vegetation or ecosystems showed that disturbances are an essential and intrinsic element of ecosystems that contribute substantially to ecosystem health, to structural diversity of ecosystems and to nutrient cycling at the local as well as global level. Fire as a grassland, bush or forest fire is a special disturbance agent, since it is caused by biotic as well abiotic environmental factors. Fire affects biogeochemical cycles and plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry by releasing climate-sensitive trace gases and aerosols, and thus in the global carbon cycle by releasing approximately 3.9 Gt C p.a. through biomass burning. A combined model to describe effects and feedbacks between fire and vegetation became relevant as changes in fire regimes due to land use and land management were observed and the global dimension of biomass burnt as an important carbon flux to the atmosphere, its influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate as well as vegetation dynamics were emphasized. The existing modelling approaches would not allow these investigations. As a consequence, an optimal set of variables that best describes fire occurrence, fire spread and its effects in ecosystems had to be defined, which can simulate observed fire regimes and help to analyse interactions between fire and vegetation dynamics as well as to allude to the reasons behind changing fire regimes. Especially, dynamic links between vegetation, climate and fire processes are required to analyse dynamic feedbacks and effects of changes of single environmental factors. This led us to the point, where new fire models had to be developed that would allow the investigations, mentioned above, and could help to improve our understanding of the role of fire in global ecology. In conclusion of the thesis, one can state that moisture conditions, its persistence over time and fuel load are the important components that describe global fire pattern. If time series of

  5. Computer-Aided Geometry Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shoosmith, J. N. (Compiler); Fulton, R. E. (Compiler)

    1984-01-01

    Techniques in computer-aided geometry modeling and their application are addressed. Mathematical modeling, solid geometry models, management of geometric data, development of geometry standards, and interactive and graphic procedures are discussed. The applications include aeronautical and aerospace structures design, fluid flow modeling, and gas turbine design.

  6. Computational investigation of carbon-in-ash levels for a wall-fired boiler after low-NOx combustion modifications

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, K.A.; Eddings, E.G.; Heap, M.P.; Facchiano, A.; Hardman, R.R.

    1998-12-31

    Many coal-fired boilers retrofitted with low NOX firing systems are experiencing significant operational difficulties due primarily to (1) increased carbon in the fly ash or (2) increased water wall wastage. This paper presents the results of a computational investigation of a wall-fired boiler that has recently been retrofitted with low NOx burners and overfire air. The focus of this paper is the effect of the retrofit on unburned carbon/NOx and the potential for applying operational and design modifications to minimize unburned carbon without adversely impacting NOx emissions. Although the magnitude of an increase in unburned carbon after a low NOx retrofit is system and coal dependent, it is often the case that reduction in emissions of nitrogen oxides is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the amount of unburned carbon in fly ash. Since low NOX firing systems increase the residence time of coal/char particles in a fuel rich environment, it might be expected that there is insufficient time under high temperature, oxidizing conditions to ensure complete carbon oxidation in a low NOx firing system. A relatively straight forward consideration of the effect of temperature and oxygen concentration on coal particle pyrolysis/oxidation can be used to provide a qualitative understanding of this effect. However, the complex flow patterns and highly nonlinear physical and chemical phenomena in a boiler make it difficult to predict carbon-in-ash (c-i-a) levels without the use of advanced computational tools. The sensitivity of c-i-a to burnout is pointed out in a figure for a coal with 10% ash. Although c-i-a changes slowly for low burnout, it changes very rapidly at the extent of burnout typical of a boiler. When the extent of burnout drops only slightly, from 99.5 to 99 percent for example, the c-i-a doubles, from 4 to 8%, which in many situations would be unacceptable. The importance of fuel efficiency and ash disposal/recycle emphasizes the need for

  7. Modeling hydrogen-cyanide absorption in fires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cagliostro, D. E.; Islas, A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for predicting blood concentrations of cyanide as functions of exposure time to constant levels of cyanide in the atmosphere. A toxic gas (which may form as a result of decomposition of combustion materials used in transportation vehicles) is breathed into the alveolar space and transferred from the alveolar space to the blood by a first-order process, dependent on the concentration of the toxicant in the alveolar space. The model predicts that blood cyanide levels are more sensitive to the breathing cycle than to blood circulation. A model estimate of the relative effects of CO and HCN atmospheres, generated in an experimental chamber with an epoxy polymer, shows that toxic effects of cyanide occur long before those of carbon monoxide.

  8. The use of computer models to predict temperature and smoke movement in high bay spaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notarianni, Kathy A.; Davis, William D.

    1993-12-01

    The Building and Fire Research Laboratory (BFRL) was given the opportunity to make measurements during fire calibration tests of the heat detection system in an aircraft hangar with a nominal 30.4 (100 ft) ceiling height near Dallas, TX. Fire gas temperatures resulting from an approximately 8250 kW isopropyl alcohol pool fire were measured above the fire and along the ceiling. The results of the experiments were then compared to predictions from the computer fire models DETACT-QS, FPETOOL, and LAVENT. In section A of the analysis conducted, DETACT-QS AND FPETOOL significantly underpredicted the gas temperature. LAVENT at the position below the ceiling corresponding to maximum temperature and velocity provided better agreement with the data. For large spaces, hot gas transport time and an improved fire plume dynamics model should be incorporated into the computer fire model activation routines. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, HARWELL FLOW3D, was then used to model the hot gas movement in the space. Reasonable agreement was found between the temperatures predicted from the CFD calculations and the temperatures measured in the aircraft hangar. In section B, an existing NASA high bay space was modeled using the CFD model. The NASA space was a clean room, 27.4 m (90 ft) high with forced horizontal laminar flow. The purpose of this analysis is to determine how the existing fire detection devices would respond to various size fires in the space. The analysis was conducted for 32 MW, 400 kW, and 40 kW fires.

  9. The use of computer models to predict temperature and smoke movement in high bay spaces

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Notarianni, Kathy A.; Davis, William D.

    1993-01-01

    The Building and Fire Research Laboratory (BFRL) was given the opportunity to make measurements during fire calibration tests of the heat detection system in an aircraft hangar with a nominal 30.4 (100 ft) ceiling height near Dallas, TX. Fire gas temperatures resulting from an approximately 8250 kW isopropyl alcohol pool fire were measured above the fire and along the ceiling. The results of the experiments were then compared to predictions from the computer fire models DETACT-QS, FPETOOL, and LAVENT. In section A of the analysis conducted, DETACT-QS AND FPETOOL significantly underpredicted the gas temperature. LAVENT at the position below the ceiling corresponding to maximum temperature and velocity provided better agreement with the data. For large spaces, hot gas transport time and an improved fire plume dynamics model should be incorporated into the computer fire model activation routines. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, HARWELL FLOW3D, was then used to model the hot gas movement in the space. Reasonable agreement was found between the temperatures predicted from the CFD calculations and the temperatures measured in the aircraft hangar. In section B, an existing NASA high bay space was modeled using the CFD model. The NASA space was a clean room, 27.4 m (90 ft) high with forced horizontal laminar flow. The purpose of this analysis is to determine how the existing fire detection devices would respond to various size fires in the space. The analysis was conducted for 32 MW, 400 kW, and 40 kW fires.

  10. Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS). Volume 6: Computer data. Part 2: Residual-fired nocogeneration process boiler

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knightly, W. F.

    1980-01-01

    Computer generated data on the performance of the cogeneration energy conversion system are presented. Performance parameters included fuel consumption and savings, capital costs, economics, and emissions of residual fired process boilers.

  11. Applicability of an integrated plume rise model for the dispersion from wild-land fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kukkonen, J.; Nikmo, J.; Sofiev, M.; Riikonen, K.; Petäjä, T.; Virkkula, A.; Levula, J.; Schobesberger, S.; Webber, D. M.

    2014-01-01

    We have presented an overview of a mathematical model, BUOYANT, that was originally designed for the evaluation of the dispersion of buoyant plumes originated from major warehouse fires. The model addresses the variations of the cross-plume integrated properties of a buoyant plume in the presence of a vertically varying atmosphere. The model also includes a treatment for a rising buoyant plume interacting with an inversion layer. We have compared the model predictions with the data of two prescribed wild-land fire experiments. For the SCAR-C experiment in Quinault (US) in 1994, the predicted vertical extents of the plume at maximum plume rise were between 500-800 m and 200-700 m, using two alternative meteorological datasets. The corresponding observed injection heights of the aerosol particles measured using an airborne LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) ranged from 250 and 600 m. For the prescribed burning experiment in Hyytiälä (Finland) in 2009, the model predictions were compared with plume elevations and diameters, determined based on particulate matter number concentration measurements on board an aeroplane. The agreement of modelled and measured results was good, provided that one assumes the measured maximum convective heat fluxes as input data for the model. The results demonstrate that in field experiments on wild-land fires, there are substantial uncertainties in estimating both (i) the source terms for the atmospheric dispersion computations, and (ii) the relevant vertical meteorological profiles. The results provide more confidence that cross-plume integrated mathematical models, such as the BUOYANT model, can be used to fairly good accuracy for evaluating the dispersion from major wild-land fires.

  12. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    DOE PAGES

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

  13. Modelling thermal radiation from one-meter diameter methane pool fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Consalvi, J. L.; Demarco, R.

    2012-06-01

    The first objective of this article is to implement a comprehensive radiation model in order to predict the radiant fractions and radiative fluxes on remote surfaces in large-scale methane pool fires. The second aim is to quantify the importance of Turbulence-Radiation Interactions (TRIs) in such buoyant flames. The fire-induced flow is modelled by using a buoyancy-modified k-ɛ model and the Steady Laminar Flamelet (SLF) model coupled with a presumed probability density function (pdf) approach. Spectral radiation is modelled by using the Full-Spectrum Correlated-k (FSCK) method. TRIs are taken into account by considering the Optically-Thin Fluctuation Approximation (OTFA). The emission term and the mean absorption coefficient are closed by using a presumed pdf of the mixture fraction, scalar dissipation rate and enthalpy defect. Two 1m-diameter fires with Heat Release Rates (HRR) of 49 kW and 162 kW were simulated. Predicted radiant fractions and radiative heat fluxes are found in reasonable agreement with experimental data. The importance of TRIs is evidenced, computed radiant fractions and radiative heat fluxes being considerably higher than those obtained from calculations based on mean properties. Finally, model results show that the complete absorption coefficient-Planck function correlation should be considered in order to properly take into account the influence of TRIs on the emission term, whereas the absorption coefficient self-correlation in the absorption term reduces significantly the radiant fractions.

  14. Adiabatic computation: A toy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, Pedro; Mosseri, Rémy

    2006-10-01

    We discuss a toy model for adiabatic quantum computation which displays some phenomenological properties expected in more realistic implementations. This model has two free parameters: the adiabatic evolution parameter s and the α parameter, which emulates many-variable constraints in the classical computational problem. The proposed model presents, in the s-α plane, a line of first-order quantum phase transition that ends at a second-order point. The relation between computation complexity and the occurrence of quantum phase transitions is discussed. We analyze the behavior of the ground and first excited states near the quantum phase transition, the gap, and the entanglement content of the ground state.

  15. Adiabatic computation: A toy model

    SciTech Connect

    Ribeiro, Pedro; Mosseri, Remy

    2006-10-15

    We discuss a toy model for adiabatic quantum computation which displays some phenomenological properties expected in more realistic implementations. This model has two free parameters: the adiabatic evolution parameter s and the {alpha} parameter, which emulates many-variable constraints in the classical computational problem. The proposed model presents, in the s-{alpha} plane, a line of first-order quantum phase transition that ends at a second-order point. The relation between computation complexity and the occurrence of quantum phase transitions is discussed. We analyze the behavior of the ground and first excited states near the quantum phase transition, the gap, and the entanglement content of the ground state.

  16. Computational models of syntactic acquisition.

    PubMed

    Yang, Charles

    2012-03-01

    The computational approach to syntactic acquisition can be fruitfully pursued by integrating results and perspectives from computer science, linguistics, and developmental psychology. In this article, we first review some key results in computational learning theory and their implications for language acquisition. We then turn to examine specific learning models, some of which exploit distributional information in the input while others rely on a constrained space of hypotheses, yet both approaches share a common set of characteristics to overcome the learning problem. We conclude with a discussion of how computational models connects with the empirical study of child grammar, making the case for computationally tractable, psychologically plausible and developmentally realistic models of acquisition. WIREs Cogn Sci 2012, 3:205-213. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1154 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  17. toolkit computational mesh conceptual model.

    SciTech Connect

    Baur, David G.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Cochran, William K.; Williams, Alan B.; Sjaardema, Gregory D.

    2010-03-01

    The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh is a software library intended to support massively parallel multi-physics computations on dynamically changing unstructured meshes. This domain of intended use is inherently complex due to distributed memory parallelism, parallel scalability, heterogeneity of physics, heterogeneous discretization of an unstructured mesh, and runtime adaptation of the mesh. Management of this inherent complexity begins with a conceptual analysis and modeling of this domain of intended use; i.e., development of a domain model. The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh software library is designed and implemented based upon this domain model. Software developers using, maintaining, or extending the Sierra Toolkit computational mesh library must be familiar with the concepts/domain model presented in this report.

  18. Two-target game model of an air combat with fire-and-forget all-aspect missiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davidovitz, A.; Shinar, J.

    1989-01-01

    An air combat duel between similar aggressive fighter aircraft, both equipped with the same type of guided missiles, is formulated as a two-target differential game using the dynamic model of the game of two identical cars. Each of the identical target sets represents the effective firing envelope of an all-aspect fire-and-forget air-to-air missile. The firing range limits depend on the target aspect angle and are approximated by analytical functions. The maximum range, computed by taking into account the optimal missile avoidance maneuver of the target, determines the no-escape firing envelope. The solution consists of the decomposition of the game space into four regions: the respective winning zones of the two opponents, the draw zone, and the region where the game terminates by a mutual kill. The solution provides a new insight for future air combat analysis.

  19. A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Zeng, X. D.; Levis, S.

    2012-07-01

    A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity has been developed for global simulations in the framework of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in an Earth System Model (ESM). Burned area in a grid cell is estimated by the product of fire counts and average burned area of a fire. The scheme comprises three parts: fire occurrence, fire spread, and fire impact. In the fire occurrence part, fire counts rather than fire occurrence probability are calculated in order to capture the observed high burned area fraction in areas of high fire frequency and realize parameter calibration based on MODIS fire counts product. In the fire spread part, post-fire region of a fire is assumed to be elliptical in shape. Mathematical properties of ellipses and some mathematical derivations are applied to improve the equation and assumptions of an existing fire spread parameterization. In the fire impact part, trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning are estimated, which offers an interface with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol models in ESMs. In addition, flexible time-step length makes the new fire parameterization easily applied to various DGVMs. Global performance of the new fire parameterization is assessed by using an improved version of the Community Land Model version 3 with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM). Simulations are compared against the latest satellite-based Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFED3) for 1997-2004. Results show that simulated global totals and spatial patterns of burned area and fire carbon emissions, regional totals and spreads of burned area, global annual burned area fractions for various vegetation types, and interannual variability of burned area are reasonable, and closer to GFED3 than CLM-DGVM simulations with the commonly used Glob-FIRM fire parameterization and the old fire module of CLM-DGVM. Furthermore, average error of simulated trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning

  20. Improving the representation of fire disturbance in dynamic vegetation models by assimilating satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantzas, E. P.; Quegan, S.; Lomas, M.

    2015-03-01

    Fire provides an impulsive and stochastic pathway for carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to enter the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being of similar magnitude to Net Ecosystem Exchange in many biomes, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in General Circulation Models contain poor representations of fire behaviour and dynamics such as propagation and distribution of fire sizes. A model-independent methodology is developed which addresses this issue. Its focus is on the Arctic where fire is linked to permafrost dynamics and on occasion can release great amounts of carbon from carbon-rich organic soils. Connected Component Labeling is used to identify individual fire events across Canada and Russia from daily, low-resolution burned area satellite products, and the results are validated against historical data. This allows the creation of a fire database holding information on area burned and temporal evolution of fires in space and time. A method of assimilating the statistical distribution of fire area into a DVM whilst maintaining its Fire Return Interval is then described. The algorithm imposes a regional scale spatially dependent fire regime on a sub-scale spatially independent model (point model); the fire regime is described by large scale statistical distributions of fire intensity and spatial extent, and the temporal dynamics (fire return intervals) are determined locally. This permits DVMs to estimate many aspects of post-fire dynamics that cannot occur under their current representations of fire, as is illustrated by considering the evolution of land cover, biomass and Net Ecosystem Exchange after a fire.

  1. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  2. A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Zeng, X. D.; Levis, S.

    2012-03-01

    A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity has been developed for global simulations in the framework of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in an Earth System Model (ESM). Burned area in a grid cell is estimated by the product of fire counts and average burned area per fire. The scheme comprises three parts: fire occurrence, fire spread, and fire impact. In the fire occurrence part, fire counts rather than fire occurrence probability is calculated in order to capture the observed high burned area fraction in regions where fire occurs frequently. In the fire spread part, post-fire region of a fire is assumed to be elliptical in shape. Mathematical properties of ellipses and mathematical derivation are applied to remove redundant and unreasonable equation and assumptions in existing fire spread parameterization. In the fire impact part, trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning are estimated, which offers an interface with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol models in ESMs. In addition, flexible time-step length makes the new fire parameterization easily applied to various DGVMs. Global performance of the new fire parameterization is assessed by using an improved version of the Community Land Model version 3 with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM). Simulations are compared against the latest satellite-based Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFED3) for 1997-2004. Results show that simulated global totals and spatial patterns of burned area and fire carbon emissions, global annual burned area fractions for various vegetation types and interannual variability of burned area are in close agreement with the GFED3, and more accurate than CLM-DGVM simulations with the commonly used Glob-FIRM fire parameterization and the old fire module of CLM-DGVM. Furthermore, the average relative error of simulated trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning is 7 %. Results suggest that the new fire parameterization may

  3. Modelling the propagation of smoke from a tanker fire in a built-up area.

    PubMed

    Brzozowska, Lucyna

    2014-02-15

    The paper presents the application of a Lagrangian particle model to problems connected with safety in road transport. Numerical simulations were performed for a hypothetical case of smoke emission from a tanker fire in a built-up area. Propagation of smoke was analysed for three wind directions. A diagnostic model was used to determine the air velocity field, whereas the dispersion of pollutants was analysed by means of a Lagrangian particle model (Brzozowska, 2013). The Idrisi Andes geographic information system was used to provide data on landforms and on their aerodynamic roughness. The presented results of computations and their analysis exemplify a possible application of the Lagrangian particle model: evaluation of mean (averaged over time) concentrations of pollutants and their distribution in the considered area (especially important due to the protection of people, animals and plants) and simulation of the propagation of harmful compounds in time as well as performing computations for cases of the potential effects of road incidents. PMID:24342097

  4. Modelling the propagation of smoke from a tanker fire in a built-up area.

    PubMed

    Brzozowska, Lucyna

    2014-02-15

    The paper presents the application of a Lagrangian particle model to problems connected with safety in road transport. Numerical simulations were performed for a hypothetical case of smoke emission from a tanker fire in a built-up area. Propagation of smoke was analysed for three wind directions. A diagnostic model was used to determine the air velocity field, whereas the dispersion of pollutants was analysed by means of a Lagrangian particle model (Brzozowska, 2013). The Idrisi Andes geographic information system was used to provide data on landforms and on their aerodynamic roughness. The presented results of computations and their analysis exemplify a possible application of the Lagrangian particle model: evaluation of mean (averaged over time) concentrations of pollutants and their distribution in the considered area (especially important due to the protection of people, animals and plants) and simulation of the propagation of harmful compounds in time as well as performing computations for cases of the potential effects of road incidents.

  5. Modeling of exposure to carbon monoxide in fires

    SciTech Connect

    Cagliostro, D.E.

    1980-11-01

    A mathematical model is developed to predict carboxyhemoglobin concentrations in regions of the body for short exposures to carbon monoxide levels expected during escape from aircraft fires. The model includes the respiratory and circulatory dynamics of absorption and distribution of carbon monoxide and carboxyhemoglobin. Predictions of carboxyhemoglobin concentrations are compared to experimental values obtained for human exposures to constant high carbon monoxide levels. Predictions are within 20% of experimental values. For short exposure times, transient concentration effects are predicted. The effect of stress is studied and found to increase carboxyhemoglobin levels substantially compared to a rest state.

  6. Measurement of Fire Radiative Energy from Space and Implications for Fire-Disaster Monitoring and Smoke Emissions Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ichoku, Charles

    2008-01-01

    Measurement of fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP) from satellite provides a vital mechanism for distinguishing different strengths of fires. Analysis of 1-km resolution fire data, acquired globally by the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites from 2000 to 2006, showed instantaneous FRP values ranging between 0.02 MW and 1866 MW, to which simple thresholds can be applied to categorize fires by strength, in a similar fashion as the strengths of earthquakes and hurricanes. Analysis of regional mean FRP per unit area of land (FRP flux) shows that at peak fire season in certain regions, fires can be responsible for up to 0.2 W/m2 at peak time of day. When considered as the active fire contribution to the direct surface radiative forcing (RF) in the different fire regions, this order of magnitude of FRF fluxes is non negligible. It has been determined experimentally that the amount of FRE released by a fire over the course of its duration is directly proportional to the amount of biomass consumed by it. Furthermore, at the satellite observation scale, the rate of release of FRE (i.e. FRP) is proportional to the rate of biomass consumption, and that of emission of smoke particulates and eventually also other smoke constituents. Therefore, current research efforts are geared toward deriving simple parameterizations that will facilitate direct input of FRP measurements in models, not only to improve the accuracy of burned-biomass and smoke emissions estimations, but also to reduce the hitherto practiced heavy reliance on multiple indirect parameters with indeterminate uncertainties.

  7. Computational modeling of properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Franz, Judy R.

    1994-01-01

    A simple model was developed to calculate the electronic transport parameters in disordered semiconductors in strong scattered regime. The calculation is based on a Green function solution to Kubo equation for the energy-dependent conductivity. This solution together with a rigorous calculation of the temperature-dependent chemical potential allows the determination of the dc conductivity and the thermopower. For wide-gap semiconductors with single defect bands, these transport properties are investigated as a function of defect concentration, defect energy, Fermi level, and temperature. Under certain conditions the calculated conductivity is quite similar to the measured conductivity in liquid 2-6 semiconductors in that two distinct temperature regimes are found. Under different conditions the conductivity is found to decrease with temperature; this result agrees with measurements in amorphous Si. Finally the calculated thermopower can be positive or negative and may change sign with temperature or defect concentration.

  8. Computational modeling of properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Franz, Judy R.

    1994-01-01

    A simple model was developed to calculate the electronic transport parameters in disordered semiconductors in strong scattered regime. The calculation is based on a Green function solution to Kubo equation for the energy-dependent conductivity. This solution together with a rigorous calculation of the temperature-dependent chemical potential allows the determination of the dc conductivity and the thermopower. For wise-gap semiconductors with single defect bands, these transport properties are investigated as a function of defect concentration, defect energy, Fermi level, and temperature. Under certain conditions the calculated conductivity is quite similar to the measured conductivity in liquid II-VI semiconductors in that two distinct temperature regimes are found. Under different conditions the conductivity is found to decrease with temperature; this result agrees with measurements in amorphous Si. Finally the calculated thermopower can be positive or negative and may change sign with temperature or defect concentration.

  9. Thermal modeling of carbon-epoxy laminates in fire environments.

    SciTech Connect

    McGurn, Matthew T. , Buffalo, NY); DesJardin, Paul Edward , Buffalo, NY); Dodd, Amanda B.

    2010-10-01

    A thermal model is developed for the response of carbon-epoxy composite laminates in fire environments. The model is based on a porous media description that includes the effects of gas transport within the laminate along with swelling. Model comparisons are conducted against the data from Quintere et al. Simulations are conducted for both coupon level and intermediate scale one-sided heating tests. Comparisons of the heat release rate (HRR) as well as the final products (mass fractions, volume percentages, porosity, etc.) are conducted. Overall, the agreement between available the data and model is excellent considering the simplified approximations to account for flame heat flux. A sensitivity study using a newly developed swelling model shows the importance of accounting for laminate expansion for the prediction of burnout. Excellent agreement is observed between the model and data of the final product composition that includes porosity, mass fractions and volume expansion ratio.

  10. Models of Grid Cell Spatial Firing Published 2005–2011

    PubMed Central

    Zilli, Eric A.

    2012-01-01

    Since the discovery of grid cells in rat entorhinal cortex, many models of their hexagonally arrayed spatial firing fields have been suggested. We review the models and organize them according to the mechanisms they use to encode position, update the positional code, read it out in the spatial grid pattern, and learn any patterned synaptic connections needed. We mention biological implementations of the models, but focus on the models on Marr’s algorithmic level, where they are not things to individually prove or disprove, but rather are a valuable collection of metaphors of the grid cell system for guiding research that are all likely true to some degree, with each simply emphasizing different aspects of the system. For the convenience of interested researchers, MATLAB implementations of the discussed grid cell models are provided at ModelDB accession 144006 or http://people.bu.edu/zilli/gridmodels.html. PMID:22529780

  11. 75 FR 20516 - Special Conditions: Cirrus Design Corporation, Model SF50; Fire Extinguishing for Upper Aft...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-20

    ...; Fire Extinguishing for Upper Aft Fuselage Mounted Engine AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA... protect such installed engines from fires, were not envisioned in the development of the part 23 normal... fire extinguishing system for the engine on the model SF50 is required. Regulations requiring...

  12. Firing patterns in a random network cellular automata model of the brain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acedo, L.; Lamprianidou, E.; Moraño, J.-A.; Villanueva-Oller, J.; Villanueva, R.-J.

    2015-10-01

    One of the main challenges in the simulation of even reduced areas of the brain is the presence of a large number of neurons and a large number of connections among them. Even from a theoretical point of view, the behaviour of dynamical models of complex networks with high connectivity is unknown, precisely because the cost of computation is still unaffordable and it will likely be in the near future. In this paper we discuss the simulation of a cellular automata network model of the brain including up to one million sites with a maximum average of three hundred connections per neuron. This level of connectivity was achieved thanks to a distributed computing environment based on the BOINC (Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing) platform. Moreover, in this work we consider the interplay among excitatory neurons (which induce the excitation of their neighbours) and inhibitory neurons (which prevent resting neurons from firing and induce firing neurons to pass to the refractory state). Our objective is to classify the normal (noisy but asymptotically constant patterns) and the abnormal (high oscillations with spindle-like behaviour) patterns of activity in the model brain and their stability and parameter ranges in order to determine the role of excitatory and inhibitory compensatory effects in healthy and diseased individuals.

  13. Trust models in ubiquitous computing.

    PubMed

    Krukow, Karl; Nielsen, Mogens; Sassone, Vladimiro

    2008-10-28

    We recapture some of the arguments for trust-based technologies in ubiquitous computing, followed by a brief survey of some of the models of trust that have been introduced in this respect. Based on this, we argue for the need of more formal and foundational trust models.

  14. Ch. 33 Modeling: Computational Thermodynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Besmann, Theodore M

    2012-01-01

    This chapter considers methods and techniques for computational modeling for nuclear materials with a focus on fuels. The basic concepts for chemical thermodynamics are described and various current models for complex crystalline and liquid phases are illustrated. Also included are descriptions of available databases for use in chemical thermodynamic studies and commercial codes for performing complex equilibrium calculations.

  15. Turbulence radiation interaction modeling in hydrocarbon pool fire simulations

    SciTech Connect

    BURNS,SHAWN P.

    1999-12-01

    The importance of turbulent fluctuations in temperature and species concentration in thermal radiation transport modeling for combustion applications is well accepted by the radiation transport and combustion communities. A number of experimental and theoretical studies over the last twenty years have shown that fluctuations in the temperature and species concentrations may increase the effective emittance of a turbulent flame by as much as 50% to 300% over the value that would be expected from the mean temperatures and concentrations. With the possibility of such a large effect on the principal mode of heat transfer from a fire, it is extremely important for fire modeling efforts that turbulence radiation interaction be well characterized and possible modeling approaches understood. Toward this end, this report seeks to accomplish three goals. First, the principal turbulence radiation interaction closure terms are defined. Second, an order of magnitude analysis is performed to understand the relative importance of the various closure terms. Finally, the state of the art in turbulence radiation interaction closure modeling is reviewed. Hydrocarbon pool fire applications are of particular interest in this report and this is the perspective from which this review proceeds. Experimental and theoretical analysis suggests that, for this type of heavily sooting flame, the turbulent radiation interaction effect is dominated by the nonlinear dependence of the Planck function on the temperature. Additional effects due to the correlation between turbulent fluctuations in the absorptivity and temperature may be small relative to the Planck function effect for heavily sooting flames. This observation is drawn from a number of experimental and theoretical discussions. Nevertheless, additional analysis and data is needed to validate this observation for heavily sooting buoyancy dominated plumes.

  16. Sensitivity analysis of a FMC model for improving forecasting forest fires: Comparison with real fires in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    San Jose, Roberto; Perez, Juan Luis; Gonzalez-Barras, Rosa M.; Pecci, Julia; Palacios, Marino

    2014-05-01

    Forest fires continue to be a very dangerous and extreme violent episode jeopardizing the human lives and owns. Spain is plagued by forest and brush fires every summer, when extremely dry weather sets in along with high temperatures. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data; in absence of realistic data, errors on the simulated fire spread con be compounded to produce o decrease of the spatial and temporal accuracy of predicted data. In this work we have carried out a sensitivity analysis of different components of the fire model and particularly the fuel moisture content (FMC) such as microphysics and solar radiation model. Three different real fire models have been used: Murcia (September, 7, 2010 19h09 and 9 hours duration), Gabiel (March, 7, 2007, 22h15 and 38 hours duration) and Culla (Marzo, 7, 2007, 23h36 and 37 hours duration). We use the 100 m European Corine Land Cover map. We use the WRF-Fire model developed by NCAR (USA). The WRF mode is run using the GFS global data and over the Iberian Peninsula with 15 km spatial resolution. We apply the nesting approach over the fires areas (located in the South East of the Iberian Peninsula) with 3 km, 1 km and 200 m spatial resolution. The Fire module included into WRF is run with 20 m spatial resolution and the landuse is interpolated from the Corine 100 m land use map. The results show that the Thompson et al. microphysics scheme and the RRTM solar radiation scheme are those with the best combination using a specific counting score to classify the goodness of the results compare with the real burned area. Those pixels not burned by the simulations but burned by the observational data sets are penalized double compare with the vice versa process. The NDVI obtained by satellite on the day of starting the fire is included in the simulations and a substantial improving in the final score is obtained.

  17. Using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis of MODIS Data for Computing the Fire Potential Index in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, P.; Roberts, D. A.

    2007-12-01

    The Fire Potential Index (FPI) is currently the only operationally used wildfire susceptibility index in the United States that incorporates remote sensing data in addition to meteorological information. Its remote sensing component utilizes relative greenness derived from a NDVI time series as a proxy for computing the ratio of live to dead vegetation. This study investigates the potential of Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) as a more direct and physically reasonable way of computing the live ratio and applying it for the computation of the FPI. A time series of 16-day reflectance composites of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was used to perform the analysis. Endmember selection for green vegetation (GV), non- photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) and soil was performed in two stages. First, a subset of suitable endmembers was selected from an extensive library of reference and image spectra for each class using Endmember Average Root Mean Square Error (EAR), Minimum Average Spectral Angle (MASA) and a count-based technique. Second, the most appropriate endmembers for the specific data set were selected from the subset by running a series of 2-endmember models on representative images and choosing the ones that modeled the majority of pixels. The final set of endmembers was used for running MESMA on southern California MODIS composites from 2000 to 2006. 3- and 4-endmember models were considered. The best model was chosen on a per-pixel basis according to the minimum root mean square error of the models at each level of complexity. Endmember fractions were normalized by the shade endmember to generate realistic fractions of GV and NPV. In order to validate the MESMA-derived GV fractions they were compared against live ratio estimates from RG. A significant spatial and temporal relationship between both measures was found, indicating that GV fraction has the potential to substitute RG in computing the FPI. To further test

  18. Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arima, Eugenio Y.; Simmons, Cynthia S.; Walker, Robert T.; Cochrane, Mark A.

    2007-01-01

    This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

  19. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    PubMed

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia.

  20. Computational Modeling of Multiphase Reactors.

    PubMed

    Joshi, J B; Nandakumar, K

    2015-01-01

    Multiphase reactors are very common in chemical industry, and numerous review articles exist that are focused on types of reactors, such as bubble columns, trickle beds, fluid catalytic beds, etc. Currently, there is a high degree of empiricism in the design process of such reactors owing to the complexity of coupled flow and reaction mechanisms. Hence, we focus on synthesizing recent advances in computational and experimental techniques that will enable future designs of such reactors in a more rational manner by exploring a large design space with high-fidelity models (computational fluid dynamics and computational chemistry models) that are validated with high-fidelity measurements (tomography and other detailed spatial measurements) to provide a high degree of rigor. Understanding the spatial distributions of dispersed phases and their interaction during scale up are key challenges that were traditionally addressed through pilot scale experiments, but now can be addressed through advanced modeling.

  1. Computational Modeling of Multiphase Reactors.

    PubMed

    Joshi, J B; Nandakumar, K

    2015-01-01

    Multiphase reactors are very common in chemical industry, and numerous review articles exist that are focused on types of reactors, such as bubble columns, trickle beds, fluid catalytic beds, etc. Currently, there is a high degree of empiricism in the design process of such reactors owing to the complexity of coupled flow and reaction mechanisms. Hence, we focus on synthesizing recent advances in computational and experimental techniques that will enable future designs of such reactors in a more rational manner by exploring a large design space with high-fidelity models (computational fluid dynamics and computational chemistry models) that are validated with high-fidelity measurements (tomography and other detailed spatial measurements) to provide a high degree of rigor. Understanding the spatial distributions of dispersed phases and their interaction during scale up are key challenges that were traditionally addressed through pilot scale experiments, but now can be addressed through advanced modeling. PMID:26134737

  2. A Complex-Valued Firing-Rate Model That Approximates the Dynamics of Spiking Networks

    PubMed Central

    Schaffer, Evan S.; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L. F.

    2013-01-01

    Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons. PMID:24204236

  3. THE EFFECTS OF COMPUTER-BASED FIRE SAFETY TRAINING ON THE KNOWLEDGE, ATTITUDES, AND PRACTICES OF CAREGIVERS

    PubMed Central

    Harrington, Susan S.; Walker, Bonnie L.

    2010-01-01

    Background Older adults in small residential board and care facilities are at a particularly high risk of fire death and injury because of their characteristics and environment. Methods The authors investigated computer-based instruction as a way to teach fire emergency planning to owners, operators, and staff of small residential board and care facilities. Participants (N = 59) were randomly assigned to a treatment or control group. Results Study participants who completed the training significantly improved their scores from pre- to posttest when compared to a control group. Participants indicated on the course evaluation that the computers were easy to use for training (97%) and that they would like to use computers for future training courses (97%). Conclusions This study demonstrates the potential for using interactive computer-based training as a viable alternative to instructor-led training to meet the fire safety training needs of owners, operators, and staff of small board and care facilities for the elderly. PMID:19263929

  4. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildlife Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    SciTech Connect

    Rudell, T. M.; Gille, R. W.

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  5. The Cerro Grande Fire - From Wildfire Modeling Through the Fire Aftermath

    SciTech Connect

    Rudell, T. M.; Gille, R. W.

    2001-01-01

    The Cerro Grande Fire developed from a prescribed burn by the National Park Service at Bandelier National Monument near Los Alamos, New Mexico. When the burn went out of control and became a wildfire, it attracted worldwide attention because it threatened the birthplace of the atomic bomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Was LANL prepared for a fire? What lessons have been learned?

  6. Computational models of adult neurogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cecchi, Guillermo A.; Magnasco, Marcelo O.

    2005-10-01

    Experimental results in recent years have shown that adult neurogenesis is a significant phenomenon in the mammalian brain. Little is known, however, about the functional role played by the generation and destruction of neurons in the context of an adult brain. Here, we propose two models where new projection neurons are incorporated. We show that in both models, using incorporation and removal of neurons as a computational tool, it is possible to achieve a higher computational efficiency that in purely static, synapse-learning-driven networks. We also discuss the implication for understanding the role of adult neurogenesis in specific brain areas like the olfactory bulb and the dentate gyrus.

  7. Nano-filled epoxy: Mechanical and fire behavior and modeling of nanocomposite columns under fire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bietto, Stefano

    2007-12-01

    In this work, fracture, mechanical, and flammability tests, along with a modeling of the stability of nanocomposite columns under fire are presented for nano-filled Diglycidyl Ether of Bisphenol A epoxy. The nanofillers used are montmorillonite nanoclays and carbon nanofibers. Three types of nanocomposites are manufactured: epoxy-clay, epoxy-carbon nanofiber, and epoxy-clay-carbon nanofiber nanocomposites. Fracture tests performed include Izod impact and fracture toughness, for the determination of the net Izod impact strength, the stress intensity factor, and the critical energy release rate. With static mechanical tests the tensile and flexural properties of the nanocomposites are measured. Flammability tests made by cone calorimetry are used to determine the Heat Release Rate, Mass Loss Rate, time to ignition, to Peak of heat Release rate and to flameout, and total smoke and heat released. A mathematical modeling of the stability of columns, made of the same nanocomposites tested, burning continuously in one side is performed. Three configurations are considered: uniform burning along the span, and burning spot at the center and at the corner of the column. The testing and the mathematical modeling reveal the higher mechanical strength and superior flammability properties produced by addition of nanofillers.

  8. Issues in Numerical Simulation of Fire Suppression

    SciTech Connect

    Tieszen, S.R.; Lopez, A.R.

    1999-04-12

    This paper outlines general physical and computational issues associated with performing numerical simulation of fire suppression. Fire suppression encompasses a broad range of chemistry and physics over a large range of time and length scales. The authors discuss the dominant physical/chemical processes important to fire suppression that must be captured by a fire suppression model to be of engineering usefulness. First-principles solutions are not possible due to computational limitations, even with the new generation of tera-flop computers. A basic strategy combining computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation techniques with sub-grid model approximations for processes that have length scales unresolvable by gridding is presented.

  9. Computational models of neurophysiological correlates of tinnitus

    PubMed Central

    Schaette, Roland; Kempter, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The understanding of tinnitus has progressed considerably in the past decade, but the details of the mechanisms that give rise to this phantom perception of sound without a corresponding acoustic stimulus have not yet been pinpointed. It is now clear that tinnitus is generated in the brain, not in the ear, and that it is correlated with pathologically altered spontaneous activity of neurons in the central auditory system. Both increased spontaneous firing rates and increased neuronal synchrony have been identified as putative neuronal correlates of phantom sounds in animal models, and both phenomena can be triggered by damage to the cochlea. Various mechanisms could underlie the generation of such aberrant activity. At the cellular level, decreased synaptic inhibition and increased neuronal excitability, which may be related to homeostatic plasticity, could lead to an over-amplification of natural spontaneous activity. At the network level, lateral inhibition could amplify differences in spontaneous activity, and structural changes such as reorganization of tonotopic maps could lead to self-sustained activity in recurrently connected neurons. However, it is difficult to disentangle the contributions of different mechanisms in experiments, especially since not all changes observed in animal models of tinnitus are necessarily related to tinnitus. Computational modeling presents an opportunity of evaluating these mechanisms and their relation to tinnitus. Here we review the computational models for the generation of neurophysiological correlates of tinnitus that have been proposed so far, and evaluate predictions and compare them to available data. We also assess the limits of their explanatory power, thus demonstrating where an understanding is still lacking and where further research may be needed. Identifying appropriate models is important for finding therapies, and we therefore, also summarize the implications of the models for approaches to treat tinnitus. PMID

  10. Enhanced absorption cycle computer model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossman, G.; Wilk, M.

    1993-09-01

    Absorption heat pumps have received renewed and increasing attention in the past two decades. The rising cost of electricity has made the particular features of this heat-powered cycle attractive for both residential and industrial applications. Solar-powered absorption chillers, gas-fired domestic heat pumps, and waste-heat-powered industrial temperature boosters are a few of the applications recently subjected to intensive research and development. The absorption heat pump research community has begun to search for both advanced cycles in various multistage configurations and new working fluid combinations with potential for enhanced performance and reliability. The development of working absorption systems has created a need for reliable and effective system simulations. A computer code has been developed for simulation of absorption systems at steady state in a flexible and modular form, making it possible to investigate various cycle configurations with different working fluids. The code is based on unit subroutines containing the governing equations for the system's components and property subroutines containing thermodynamic properties of the working fluids. The user conveys to the computer an image of his cycle by specifying the different subunits and their interconnections. Based on this information, the program calculates the temperature, flow rate, concentration, pressure, and vapor fraction at each state point in the system, and the heat duty at each unit, from which the coefficient of performance (COP) may be determined. This report describes the code and its operation, including improvements introduced into the present version. Simulation results are described for LiBr-H2O triple-effect cycles, LiCl-H2O solar-powered open absorption cycles, and NH3-H2O single-effect and generator-absorber heat exchange cycles. An appendix contains the user's manual.

  11. Computational Modeling Method for Superalloys

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bozzolo, Guillermo; Noebe, Ronald D.; Gayda, John

    1997-01-01

    Computer modeling based on theoretical quantum techniques has been largely inefficient due to limitations on the methods or the computer needs associated with such calculations, thus perpetuating the notion that little help can be expected from computer simulations for the atomistic design of new materials. In a major effort to overcome these limitations and to provide a tool for efficiently assisting in the development of new alloys, we developed the BFS method for alloys, which together with the experimental results from previous and current research that validate its use for large-scale simulations, provide the ideal grounds for developing a computationally economical and physically sound procedure for supplementing the experimental work at great cost and time savings.

  12. Modelling the impacts of reoccurring fires in tropical savannahs using Biome-BGC.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan

    2010-05-01

    Fires are a dominant feature of tropical savannahs and have occurred throughout history by natural as well as human-induced means. These fires have a profound influence on the landscape in terms of flux dynamics and vegetative species composition. This study attempts to understand the impacts of fire regimes on flux dynamics and vegetation composition in savannahs using the Biome-BGC model. The Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin, serves as a case-study. To achieve model validation for savannahs, data sets from stands with differing levels of past burning are used. It is hypothesised that the field measurements from those stands with lower-levels of past burning will correlate with the Biome-BGC model output, meaning that the model is validated for the savannah excluding fire regimes. However, in reality, fire is frequent in the savannah. Data on past fire events are available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to provide the fire regimes of the model. As the field data-driven measurements of the burnt stands are influenced by fire in the savannah, this will therefore result in a Biome-BGC model validated for the impacts of fire on savannah ecology. The validated model can then be used to predict the savannah's flux dynamics under the fire scenarios expected with climate and/or human impact change.

  13. Climate Modeling Computing Needs Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petraska, K. E.; McCabe, J. D.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses early findings of an assessment of computing needs for NASA science, engineering and flight communities. The purpose of this assessment is to document a comprehensive set of computing needs that will allow us to better evaluate whether our computing assets are adequately structured to meet evolving demand. The early results are interesting, already pointing out improvements we can make today to get more out of the computing capacity we have, as well as potential game changing innovations for the future in how we apply information technology to science computing. Our objective is to learn how to leverage our resources in the best way possible to do more science for less money. Our approach in this assessment is threefold: Development of use case studies for science workflows; Creating a taxonomy and structure for describing science computing requirements; and characterizing agency computing, analysis, and visualization resources. As projects evolve, science data sets increase in a number of ways: in size, scope, timelines, complexity, and fidelity. Generating, processing, moving, and analyzing these data sets places distinct and discernable requirements on underlying computing, analysis, storage, and visualization systems. The initial focus group for this assessment is the Earth Science modeling community within NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD). As the assessment evolves, this focus will expand to other science communities across the agency. We will discuss our use cases, our framework for requirements and our characterizations, as well as our interview process, what we learned and how we plan to improve our materials after using them in the first round of interviews in the Earth Science Modeling community. We will describe our plans for how to expand this assessment, first into the Earth Science data analysis and remote sensing communities, and then throughout the full community of science, engineering and flight at NASA.

  14. The Hewlett-Packard HP-41CV Hand-Held Computer as a Medium for Teaching Mathematics to Fire Control Systems Repairers. Research Report 1408.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boldovici, John A.; Scott, Thomas D.

    A study compared the benefits of using the Hewlett-Packard HP-41CV hand-held computer, as opposed to conventional training without computers, in teaching mathematics to fire control systems repairers. Thirty soldiers in a course to train fire control systems repairers received training in technical mathematics using the hand-held computer, whereas…

  15. The Effect of Computer-Based Simulation Training on Fire Ground Incident Commander Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Kurt A.

    2010-01-01

    Since the establishment of the first volunteer fire brigades in the United States, firefighters have lost their lives in fire fighting operations at emergency incidents and live-fire training activities. While there are various reasons for these firefighter deaths and injuries, the United States Fire Administration (2002) reported that many of…

  16. Computational Modeling of Mitochondrial Function

    PubMed Central

    Cortassa, Sonia; Aon, Miguel A.

    2012-01-01

    The advent of techniques with the ability to scan massive changes in cellular makeup (genomics, proteomics, etc.) has revealed the compelling need for analytical methods to interpret and make sense of those changes. Computational models built on sound physico-chemical mechanistic basis are unavoidable at the time of integrating, interpreting, and simulating high-throughput experimental data. Another powerful role of computational models is predicting new behavior provided they are adequately validated. Mitochondrial energy transduction has been traditionally studied with thermodynamic models. More recently, kinetic or thermo-kinetic models have been proposed, leading the path toward an understanding of the control and regulation of mitochondrial energy metabolism and its interaction with cytoplasmic and other compartments. In this work, we outline the methods, step-by-step, that should be followed to build a computational model of mitochondrial energetics in isolation or integrated to a network of cellular processes. Depending on the question addressed by the modeler, the methodology explained herein can be applied with different levels of detail, from the mitochondrial energy producing machinery in a network of cellular processes to the dynamics of a single enzyme during its catalytic cycle. PMID:22057575

  17. An intermediate process-based fire parameterization in Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Zeng, X.

    2011-12-01

    An intermediate process-based fire parameterization has been developed for global fire simulation. It fits the framework of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) which has been a pivot component in Earth System Model (ESM). The fire parameterization comprises three parts: fire occurrence, fire spread, and fire impact. In the first part, the number of fires is determined by ignition counts due to anthropogenic and natural causes and three constraints: fuel load, fuel moisture, and human suppression. Human caused ignition and suppression is explicitly considered as a nonlinear function of population density. The fire counts rather than fire occurrence probability is estimated to avoid underestimating the observed high burned area fraction in tropical savannas where fire occurs frequently. In the second part, post-fire region is assumed to be elliptical in shape with the wind direction along the major axis and the point of ignition at one of the foci. Burned area is determined by fire spread rate,fire duration, and fire counts. Mathematical characteristics of ellipse and some mathematical derivations are used to avoid redundant and unreasonable equations and assumptions in the CTEM-FIRE and make the parameterization equations self-consistently. In the third part, the impact of fire on vegetation component and structure, carbon cycle, trace gases and aerosol emissions are taken into account. The new estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions due to biomass burning offers an interface with aerosol and atmospheric chemistry model in ESMs. Furthermore, in the new fire parameterization, fire occurrence part and fire spread part can be updated hourly or daily, and fire impact part can be updated daily, monthly, or annually. Its flexibility in selection of time-step length makes it easily applied to various DGVMs. The improved Community Land Model 3.0's Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM) is used as the model platform to assess the global performance of the new

  18. A computational model of cuneothalamic projection neurons.

    PubMed

    Sánchez, Eduardo; Barro, Senén; Mariño, Jorge; Canedo, Antonio

    2003-05-01

    The dorsal column nuclei, cuneatus and gracilis, play a fundamental role in the processing and integration of somesthetic ascending information. Intracellular and patch-clamp recordings obtained in cat in vivo have shown that cuneothalamic projection neurons present two modes of activity: oscillatory and tonic (Canedo et al 1998 Neuroscience 84 603-17). The former is the basis of generating, in sleep and anaesthetized states, slow, delta and spindle rhythms under the control of the cerebral cortex (Mariño et al 2000 Neuroscience 95 657-73). The latter is needed, during wakefulness, to process somesthetic information in real time. To study this behaviour we have developed the first realistic computational model of the cuneothalamic projection neurons. The modelling was guided by experimental recordings, which suggest the existence of hyperpolarization-activated inward currents, transient low- and high-threshold calcium currents, and calcium-activated potassium currents. The neuronal responses were simulated during (1) sleep, (2) transition from sleep to wakefulness and (3) wakefulness under both excitatory and inhibitory synaptic input. In wakefulness the model predicts a set of synaptically driven firing modes that could be associated with information processing strategies in the middle cuneate nucleus.

  19. Kilohertz Frequency Deep Brain Stimulation Is Ineffective at Regularizing the Firing of Model Thalamic Neurons.

    PubMed

    Couto, João; Grill, Warren M

    2016-01-01

    Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is an established therapy for movement disorders, including tremor, dystonia, and Parkinson's disease, but the mechanisms of action are not well understood. Symptom suppression by DBS typically requires stimulation frequencies ≥100 Hz, but when the frequency is increased above ~2 kHz, the effectiveness in tremor suppression declines (Benabid et al., 1991). We sought to test the hypothesis that the decline in efficacy at high frequencies is associated with desynchronization of the activity generated within a population of stimulated neurons. Regularization of neuronal firing is strongly correlated with tremor suppression by DBS, and desynchronization would disrupt the regularization of neuronal activity. We implemented computational models of CNS axons with either deterministic or stochastic membrane dynamics, and quantified the response of populations of model nerve fibers to extracellular stimulation at different frequencies and amplitudes. As stimulation frequency was increased from 2 to 80 Hz the regularity of neuronal firing increased (as assessed with direct estimates of entropy), in accord with the clinical effects on tremor of increasing stimulation frequency (Kuncel et al., 2006). Further, at frequencies between 80 and 500 Hz, increasing the stimulation amplitude (i.e., the proportion of neurons activated by the stimulus) increased the regularity of neuronal activity across the population, in accord with the clinical effects on tremor of stimulation amplitude (Kuncel et al., 2007). However, at stimulation frequencies above 1 kHz the regularity of neuronal firing declined due to irregular patterns of action potential generation and conduction block. The reductions in neuronal regularity that occurred at high frequencies paralleled the previously reported decline in tremor reduction and may be responsible for the loss of efficacy of DBS at very high frequencies. This analysis provides further support for the hypothesis that

  20. Kilohertz Frequency Deep Brain Stimulation Is Ineffective at Regularizing the Firing of Model Thalamic Neurons

    PubMed Central

    Couto, João; Grill, Warren M.

    2016-01-01

    Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is an established therapy for movement disorders, including tremor, dystonia, and Parkinson's disease, but the mechanisms of action are not well understood. Symptom suppression by DBS typically requires stimulation frequencies ≥100 Hz, but when the frequency is increased above ~2 kHz, the effectiveness in tremor suppression declines (Benabid et al., 1991). We sought to test the hypothesis that the decline in efficacy at high frequencies is associated with desynchronization of the activity generated within a population of stimulated neurons. Regularization of neuronal firing is strongly correlated with tremor suppression by DBS, and desynchronization would disrupt the regularization of neuronal activity. We implemented computational models of CNS axons with either deterministic or stochastic membrane dynamics, and quantified the response of populations of model nerve fibers to extracellular stimulation at different frequencies and amplitudes. As stimulation frequency was increased from 2 to 80 Hz the regularity of neuronal firing increased (as assessed with direct estimates of entropy), in accord with the clinical effects on tremor of increasing stimulation frequency (Kuncel et al., 2006). Further, at frequencies between 80 and 500 Hz, increasing the stimulation amplitude (i.e., the proportion of neurons activated by the stimulus) increased the regularity of neuronal activity across the population, in accord with the clinical effects on tremor of stimulation amplitude (Kuncel et al., 2007). However, at stimulation frequencies above 1 kHz the regularity of neuronal firing declined due to irregular patterns of action potential generation and conduction block. The reductions in neuronal regularity that occurred at high frequencies paralleled the previously reported decline in tremor reduction and may be responsible for the loss of efficacy of DBS at very high frequencies. This analysis provides further support for the hypothesis that

  1. Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence. PMID:25790309

  2. Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

  3. Computational tools for protein modeling.

    PubMed

    Xu, D; Xu, Y; Uberbacher, E C

    2000-07-01

    Protein modeling is playing a more and more important role in protein and peptide sciences due to improvements in modeling methods, advances in computer technology, and the huge amount of biological data becoming available. Modeling tools can often predict the structure and shed some light on the function and its underlying mechanism. They can also provide insight to design experiments and suggest possible leads for drug design. This review attempts to provide a comprehensive introduction to major computer programs, especially on-line servers, for protein modeling. The review covers the following aspects: (1) protein sequence comparison, including sequence alignment/search, sequence-based protein family classification, domain parsing, and phylogenetic classification; (2) sequence annotation, including annotation/prediction of hydrophobic profiles, transmembrane regions, active sites, signaling sites, and secondary structures; (3) protein structure analysis, including visualization, geometry analysis, structure comparison/classification, dynamics, and electrostatics; (4) three-dimensional structure prediction, including homology modeling, fold recognition using threading, ab initio prediction, and docking. We will address what a user can expect from the computer tools in terms of their strengths and limitations. We will also discuss the major challenges and the future trends in the field. A collection of the links of tools can be found at http://compbio.ornl.gov/structure/resource/.

  4. [Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

    PubMed

    Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

    2015-07-01

    The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

  5. [Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

    PubMed

    Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

    2015-07-01

    The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located. PMID:26710638

  6. Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

    2015-04-01

    Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

  7. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, E.S.

    1989-10-01

    The general goal of this research project is to enhance, and transfer to DOE, a new computer simulation model for analyzing the performance and cost of environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants. Systems utilizing pre-combustion, combustion, or post-combustion control methods, individually or in combination, may be considered. A unique capability of this model is the probabilistic representation of uncertainty in model input parameters. This stochastic simulation capability allows the performance and cost of environmental control systems to be quantified probabilistically, accounting for the interactions among all uncertain process and economic parameters. This method facilitates more rigorous comparisons between conventional and advanced clean coal technologies promising improved cost and/or effectiveness for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} removal. Detailed modeling of several pre-combustion and post-combustion processes of interest to DOE/PETC have been selected for analysis as part of this project.

  8. Fuel models to predict fire behavior in untreated conifer slash. Forest Service research note (final)

    SciTech Connect

    Salazar, L.A.; Bevins, C.D.

    1984-11-01

    Fire behavior in untreated slash of nine conifer species was simulated for 10 successive years after logging. Two aging factors that affect fire behavior--fuel bed compaction and foliage retention--were modeled by least squares regression techniques. On the basis of spread rate and flame length for a set of weather observations, standard Northern Forest Fire Laboratory fuel models were chosen to predict fire behavior for aging slash of each species at three initial fuel loadings. Differences in the standard fuel model sequences best representing aging process among species were most influenced by foliage surface-area-to-volume ratio, and such differences increased as initial fuel load increased.

  9. Visualizing ultrasound through computational modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guo, Theresa W.

    2004-01-01

    The Doppler Ultrasound Hematocrit Project (DHP) hopes to find non-invasive methods of determining a person s blood characteristics. Because of the limits of microgravity and the space travel environment, it is important to find non-invasive methods of evaluating the health of persons in space. Presently, there is no well developed method of determining blood composition non-invasively. This projects hopes to use ultrasound and Doppler signals to evaluate the characteristic of hematocrit, the percentage by volume of red blood cells within whole blood. These non-invasive techniques may also be developed to be used on earth for trauma patients where invasive measure might be detrimental. Computational modeling is a useful tool for collecting preliminary information and predictions for the laboratory research. We hope to find and develop a computer program that will be able to simulate the ultrasound signals the project will work with. Simulated models of test conditions will more easily show what might be expected from laboratory results thus help the research group make informed decisions before and during experimentation. There are several existing Matlab based computer programs available, designed to interpret and simulate ultrasound signals. These programs will be evaluated to find which is best suited for the project needs. The criteria of evaluation that will be used are 1) the program must be able to specify transducer properties and specify transmitting and receiving signals, 2) the program must be able to simulate ultrasound signals through different attenuating mediums, 3) the program must be able to process moving targets in order to simulate the Doppler effects that are associated with blood flow, 4) the program should be user friendly and adaptable to various models. After a computer program is chosen, two simulation models will be constructed. These models will simulate and interpret an RF data signal and a Doppler signal.

  10. Parallel computing in enterprise modeling.

    SciTech Connect

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Armstrong, Robert C.; Shneider, Max S.; Vanderveen, Keith; Ray, Jaideep; Heath, Zach; Allan, Benjamin A.

    2008-08-01

    This report presents the results of our efforts to apply high-performance computing to entity-based simulations with a multi-use plugin for parallel computing. We use the term 'Entity-based simulation' to describe a class of simulation which includes both discrete event simulation and agent based simulation. What simulations of this class share, and what differs from more traditional models, is that the result sought is emergent from a large number of contributing entities. Logistic, economic and social simulations are members of this class where things or people are organized or self-organize to produce a solution. Entity-based problems never have an a priori ergodic principle that will greatly simplify calculations. Because the results of entity-based simulations can only be realized at scale, scalable computing is de rigueur for large problems. Having said that, the absence of a spatial organizing principal makes the decomposition of the problem onto processors problematic. In addition, practitioners in this domain commonly use the Java programming language which presents its own problems in a high-performance setting. The plugin we have developed, called the Parallel Particle Data Model, overcomes both of these obstacles and is now being used by two Sandia frameworks: the Decision Analysis Center, and the Seldon social simulation facility. While the ability to engage U.S.-sized problems is now available to the Decision Analysis Center, this plugin is central to the success of Seldon. Because Seldon relies on computationally intensive cognitive sub-models, this work is necessary to achieve the scale necessary for realistic results. With the recent upheavals in the financial markets, and the inscrutability of terrorist activity, this simulation domain will likely need a capability with ever greater fidelity. High-performance computing will play an important part in enabling that greater fidelity.

  11. Cosmic logic: a computational model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanchurin, Vitaly

    2016-02-01

    We initiate a formal study of logical inferences in context of the measure problem in cosmology or what we call cosmic logic. We describe a simple computational model of cosmic logic suitable for analysis of, for example, discretized cosmological systems. The construction is based on a particular model of computation, developed by Alan Turing, with cosmic observers (CO), cosmic measures (CM) and cosmic symmetries (CS) described by Turing machines. CO machines always start with a blank tape and CM machines take CO's Turing number (also known as description number or Gödel number) as input and output the corresponding probability. Similarly, CS machines take CO's Turing number as input, but output either one if the CO machines are in the same equivalence class or zero otherwise. We argue that CS machines are more fundamental than CM machines and, thus, should be used as building blocks in constructing CM machines. We prove the non-computability of a CS machine which discriminates between two classes of CO machines: mortal that halts in finite time and immortal that runs forever. In context of eternal inflation this result implies that it is impossible to construct CM machines to compute probabilities on the set of all CO machines using cut-off prescriptions. The cut-off measures can still be used if the set is reduced to include only machines which halt after a finite and predetermined number of steps.

  12. Study on the effect of the operating condition on a pulverized coal-fired furnace using computational fluid dynamics commercial code

    SciTech Connect

    Manish Kumar; Santi Gopal Sahu . man_manna@yahoo.com

    2007-12-15

    Computer models for coal combustion are not sufficiently accurate to enable the design of pulverized coal fired furnaces or the selection of coal based on combustion behavior. Most comprehensive combustion models can predict with reasonable accuracy flow fields and heat transfer but usually with a much lesser degree of accuracy than the combustion of coal particles through char burnout. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling is recognized widely to be a cost-effective, advanced tool for optimizing the design and operating condition of the pulverized coal-fired furnaces for achieving cleaner and efficient power generation. Technologists and researchers are paying remarkable attention to CFD because of its value in the pulverized fuel fired furnace technology and its nonintrusiveness, sophistication, and ability to significantly reduce the time and expense involved in the design, optimization, trouble-shooting, and repair of power generation equipment. An attempt to study the effect of one of the operating conditions, i.e., burner tilts on coal combustion mechanisms, furnace exit gas temperature (FEGT), and heat flux distribution pattern, within the furnace has been made in this paper by modeling a 210 MW boiler using commercial CFD code FLUENT. 5 refs., 8 figs.

  13. Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. An experimental and modeling study of fires in ventilated ducts; Part 1: Liquid fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Comitis, S.C.; Glasser, D.; Young, B.D. . Dept. of Chemical Engineering)

    1994-03-01

    A theoretical model for fire propagation through a fuel-lined duct with a radially well-mixed axial flow is presented. The gas-phase is modeled as a steady-state process whereas the condensed-phase (fuel source) is taken to be the cause of transient fire propagation along the duct. Experiments were performed in a small-scale duct where fire propagation and gas temperature histories were acquired. Experimental results confirm hypotheses of pseudo-steady-state gas-phase processes. Theory and experiment display transient fire propagation for typical duct fire scenarios where initial fuel mass loading is constant with respect to duct length. The phenomena observed, as predicted by theory, is an initial jump'' of the fully developed combustion process followed by convergence to a steady-state constant fire propagation speed. The theory is in all important aspects able to quantitatively model the experimental results.

  15. Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling

    PubMed Central

    Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I.; Whitlock, Cathy

    2015-01-01

    Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity. PMID:25657652

  16. Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

    PubMed

    Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

  17. Radiative Transfer Modeling of a Large Pool Fire by Discrete Ordinates, Discrete Transfer, Ray Tracing, Monte Carlo and Moment Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jensen, K. A.; Ripoll, J.-F.; Wray, A. A.; Joseph, D.; ElHafi, M.

    2004-01-01

    Five computational methods for solution of the radiative transfer equation in an absorbing-emitting and non-scattering gray medium were compared on a 2 m JP-8 pool fire. The temperature and absorption coefficient fields were taken from a synthetic fire due to the lack of a complete set of experimental data for fires of this size. These quantities were generated by a code that has been shown to agree well with the limited quantity of relevant data in the literature. Reference solutions to the governing equation were determined using the Monte Carlo method and a ray tracing scheme with high angular resolution. Solutions using the discrete transfer method, the discrete ordinate method (DOM) with both S(sub 4) and LC(sub 11) quadratures, and moment model using the M(sub 1) closure were compared to the reference solutions in both isotropic and anisotropic regions of the computational domain. DOM LC(sub 11) is shown to be the more accurate than the commonly used S(sub 4) quadrature technique, especially in anisotropic regions of the fire domain. This represents the first study where the M(sub 1) method was applied to a combustion problem occurring in a complex three-dimensional geometry. The M(sub 1) results agree well with other solution techniques, which is encouraging for future applications to similar problems since it is computationally the least expensive solution technique. Moreover, M(sub 1) results are comparable to DOM S(sub 4).

  18. Transition between Functional Regimes in an Integrate-And-Fire Network Model of the Thalamus

    PubMed Central

    Barardi, Alessandro; Mazzoni, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    The thalamus is a key brain element in the processing of sensory information. During the sleep and awake states, this brain area is characterized by the presence of two distinct dynamical regimes: in the sleep state activity is dominated by spindle oscillations (7 − 15 Hz) weakly affected by external stimuli, while in the awake state the activity is primarily driven by external stimuli. Here we develop a simple and computationally efficient model of the thalamus that exhibits two dynamical regimes with different information-processing capabilities, and study the transition between them. The network model includes glutamatergic thalamocortical (TC) relay neurons and GABAergic reticular (RE) neurons described by adaptive integrate-and-fire models in which spikes are induced by either depolarization or hyperpolarization rebound. We found a range of connectivity conditions under which the thalamic network composed by these neurons displays the two aforementioned dynamical regimes. Our results show that TC-RE loops generate spindle-like oscillations and that a minimum level of clustering (i.e. local connectivity density) in the RE-RE connections is necessary for the coexistence of the two regimes. We also observe that the transition between the two regimes occurs when the external excitatory input on TC neurons (mimicking sensory stimulation) is large enough to cause a significant fraction of them to switch from hyperpolarization-rebound-driven firing to depolarization-driven firing. Overall, our model gives a novel and clear description of the role that the two types of neurons and their connectivity play in the dynamical regimes observed in the thalamus, and in the transition between them. These results pave the way for the development of efficient models of the transmission of sensory information from periphery to cortex. PMID:27598260

  19. Transition between Functional Regimes in an Integrate-And-Fire Network Model of the Thalamus.

    PubMed

    Barardi, Alessandro; Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi; Mazzoni, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    The thalamus is a key brain element in the processing of sensory information. During the sleep and awake states, this brain area is characterized by the presence of two distinct dynamical regimes: in the sleep state activity is dominated by spindle oscillations (7 - 15 Hz) weakly affected by external stimuli, while in the awake state the activity is primarily driven by external stimuli. Here we develop a simple and computationally efficient model of the thalamus that exhibits two dynamical regimes with different information-processing capabilities, and study the transition between them. The network model includes glutamatergic thalamocortical (TC) relay neurons and GABAergic reticular (RE) neurons described by adaptive integrate-and-fire models in which spikes are induced by either depolarization or hyperpolarization rebound. We found a range of connectivity conditions under which the thalamic network composed by these neurons displays the two aforementioned dynamical regimes. Our results show that TC-RE loops generate spindle-like oscillations and that a minimum level of clustering (i.e. local connectivity density) in the RE-RE connections is necessary for the coexistence of the two regimes. We also observe that the transition between the two regimes occurs when the external excitatory input on TC neurons (mimicking sensory stimulation) is large enough to cause a significant fraction of them to switch from hyperpolarization-rebound-driven firing to depolarization-driven firing. Overall, our model gives a novel and clear description of the role that the two types of neurons and their connectivity play in the dynamical regimes observed in the thalamus, and in the transition between them. These results pave the way for the development of efficient models of the transmission of sensory information from periphery to cortex. PMID:27598260

  20. Multi-model estimates of fire emissions and air quality degradation in Southeast Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Kinney, P. L.; Shindell, D. T.; Randerson, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    Like fossil fuel pollution, fire emissions affect both climate change and air quality. In this study, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modeling to quantify potential population exposure to particulate matter and ozone from fires in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 2007. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity due to El Niño-induced droughts and anthropogenic drivers. Though typically too wet to combust, increased sources of deforestation and degradation are enhancing the susceptibility of forests and underlying carbon-rich peat deposits to fire during drought, as documented in the extreme fires of the 1997-98 El Niño. Concerns of a positive feedback between fire activity and a warming climate would further increase the influence of fires on air quality degradation. Monthly fire emissions are estimated from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED version 3) and transported in two atmospheric models to assess population exposure. We show that during strong El Niño years, fires contribute to daily fine particulate matter and afternoon maximum ozone surface concentrations over 150 μg/m3 and 240 μg/m3, respectively. Exposure to these two types of pollutants increases mortality and hospital admissions from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, even at low concentrations. This fire pollutant burden corresponds to 200 added days per year exceeding the World Health Organization fine particulate matter guideline and exposes up to 50 million additional people to more than 25 days above the most extreme pollutant concentrations. Our results indicate that substantial health and economic co-benefits would result from reducing fires in locations where transported emissions lead to enhanced exposure to air pollution during high fire years.

  1. Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on Large Fire Size, Counts, and Intensities Using the Large Fire Simulator (FSim)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riley, K. L.; Haas, J. R.; Finney, M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in climate can be expected to cause changes in wildfire activity due to a combination of shifts in weather (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) and vegetation. Changes in vegetation could include type conversions, altered forest structure, and shifts in species composition, the effects of which could be mitigated or exacerbated by management activities. Further, changes in suppression response and effectiveness may alter potential wildfire activity, as well as the consequences of wildfire. Feedbacks among these factors are extremely complex and uncertain. The ability to anticipate changes driven by fire weather (largely outside of human control) can lead to development of fire and fuel management strategies aimed at mitigating current and future risk. Therefore, in this study we focus on isolating the effects of climate-induced changes in weather on wildfire activity. Specifically, we investigated the effect of changes in weather on fire activity in the Canadian Rockies ecoregion, which encompasses Glacier National Park and several large wilderness areas to the south. To model the ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires, we used the Large Fire Simulator (FSim), which we coupled with current and projected future climatic conditions. Weather streams were based on data from 14 downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 45 and 85 for the years 2040-2060. While all GCMs indicate increases in temperature for this area, which would be expected to exacerbate fire activity, precipitation predictions for the summer wildfire season are more variable, ranging from a decrease of approximately 50 mm to an increase of approximately 50 mm. Windspeeds are generally predicted to decrease, which would reduce rates of spread and fire intensity. The net effect of these weather changes on the size, number, and intensity

  2. SPITFIRE-2: an improved fire module for Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfeiffer, M.; Kaplan, J. O.

    2012-08-01

    Fire is the primary disturbance factor in many terrestrial ecosystems. Wildfire alters vegetation structure and composition, affects carbon storage and biogeochemical cycling, and results in the release of climatically relevant trace gases, including CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and aerosols. Assessing the impacts of global wildfire on centennial to multi-millennial timescales requires the linkage of process-based fire modeling with vegetation modeling using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Here we present a new fire module, SPITFIRE-2, and an update to the LPJ-DGVM that includes major improvements to the way in which fire occurrence, behavior, and the effect of fire on vegetation is simulated. The new fire module includes explicit calculation of natural ignitions, the representation of multi-day burning and coalescence of fires and the calculation of rates of spread in different vegetation types, as well as a simple scheme to model crown fires. We describe a new representation of anthropogenic biomass burning under preindustrial conditions that distinguishes the way in which the relationship between humans and fire are different between hunter-gatherers, obligate pastoralists, and farmers. Where and when available, we evaluate our model simulations against remote-sensing based estimates of burned area. While wildfire in much of the modern world is largely influenced by anthropogenic suppression and ignitions, in those parts of the world where natural fire is still the dominant process, e.g. in remote areas of the boreal forest, our results demonstrate a significant improvement in simulated burned area over previous models. With its unique properties of being able to simulate preindustrial fire, the new module we present here is particularly well suited for the investigation of climate-human-fire relationships on multi-millennial timescales.

  3. Assessing accuracy of a probabilistic model for very large fire in the Rocky Mountains: A High Park Fire case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavros, E.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Larkin, N.; McKenzie, D.; Steel, A.

    2012-12-01

    Across the western United States, the largest wildfires account for a major proportion of the area burned and substantially affect mountain forests and their associated ecosystem services, among which is pristine air quality. These fires commandeer national attention and significant fire suppression resources. Despite efforts to understand the influence of fuel loading, climate, and weather on annual area burned, few studies have focused on understanding what abiotic factors enable and drive the very largest wildfires. We investigated the correlation between both antecedent climate and in-situ biophysical variables and very large (>20,000 ha) fires in the western United States from 1984 to 2009. We built logistic regression models, at the spatial scale of the national Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs), to estimate the probability that a given day is conducive to a very large wildfire. Models vary in accuracy and in which variables are the best predictors. In a case study of the conditions of the High Park Fire, neighboring Fort Collins, Colorado, occurring in early summer 2012, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Rocky Mountain model.

  4. On wildfire complexity, simple models and environmental templates for fire size distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, M. M.; Bradstock, R.; Gill, M.; Sadler, R.

    2012-12-01

    Vegetation fires affect some 370 Mha annually. At global and continental scales, fire activity follows predictable spatiotemporal patterns driven by gradients and seasonal fluctuations of primary productivity and evaporative demand that set constraints for fuel accumulation rates and fuel dryness, two key ingredients of fire. At regional scales, fires are also known to affect some landscapes more than others and within landscapes to occur preferentially in some sectors (e.g. wind-swept ridges) and rarely in others (e.g. wet gullies). Another common observation is that small fires occur relatively frequent yet collectively burn far less country than relatively infrequent large fires. These patterns of fire activity are well known to management agencies and consistent with their (informal) models of how the basic drivers and constraints of fire (i.e. fuels, ignitions, weather) vary in time and space across the landscape. The statistical behaviour of these landscape fire patterns has excited the (academic) research community by showing some consistency with that of complex dynamical systems poised at a phase transition. The common finding that the frequency-size distributions of actual fires follow power laws that resemble those produced by simple cellular models from statistical mechanics has been interpreted as evidence that flammable landscapes operate as self-organising systems with scale invariant fire size distributions emerging 'spontaneously' from simple rules of contagious fire spread and a strong feedback between fires and fuel patterns. In this paper we argue that the resemblance of simulated and actual fire size distributions is an example of equifinality, that is fires in model landscapes and actual landscapes may show similar statistical behaviour but this is reached by qualitatively different pathways or controlling mechanisms. We support this claim with two key findings regarding simulated fire spread mechanisms and fire-fuel feedbacks. Firstly, we

  5. Dynamic modeling of a single-stage downward firing, entrained flow gasifier

    SciTech Connect

    Kasule, J., Turton, R., Bhattacharyya, D., Zitney, S.

    2012-01-01

    The gasifier is the heart of the integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), a technology that has emerged as an attractive alternative to conventional coal-fired power plant technology due to its higher efficiency and cleaner environmental performance especially with the option of CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration. Understanding the optimal performance of the gasifier is therefore paramount for the efficient operation of IGCC power plants. Numerous gasifier models of varying complexity have been developed to study the various aspects of gasifier performance. These range from simple one-dimensional (1D) process-type models to rigorous higher order 2-3D models based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Whereas high-fidelity CFD models can accurately predict most key aspects of gasifier performance, they are computationally expensive and typically take hours to days to execute on high-performance computers. Therefore, faster 1D partial differential equation (PDE)-based models are required for use in dynamic simulation studies, control system analysis, and training applications. A number of 1D gasifier models can be found in the literature, but most are steady-state models that have limited application in the practical operation of the gasifier. As a result, 1D PDE-based dynamic models are needed to further study and predict gasifier performance under a wide variety of process conditions and disturbances. In the current study, a 1D transient model of a single-stage downward-fired GE/Texaco-type entrained-flow gasifier has been developed. The model comprises mass, momentum and energy balances for the gas and solid phases. The model considers the initial gasification processes of water evaporation and coal devolatilization. In addition, the key heterogeneous and homogeneous chemical reactions have been modeled. The resulting time-dependent PDE model is solved using the well-known method of lines approach in Aspen Custom Modeler®, whereby the PDEs in the spatial

  6. Workshop on Computational Turbulence Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shabbir, A. (Compiler); Shih, T.-H. (Compiler); Povinelli, L. A. (Compiler)

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this meeting was to discuss the current status and future development of turbulence modeling in computational fluid dynamics for aerospace propulsion systems. Various turbulence models have been developed and applied to different turbulent flows over the past several decades and it is becoming more and more urgent to assess their performance in various complex situations. In order to help users in selecting and implementing appropriate models in their engineering calculations, it is important to identify the capabilities as well as the deficiencies of these models. This also benefits turbulence modelers by permitting them to further improve upon the existing models. This workshop was designed for exchanging ideas and enhancing collaboration between different groups in the Lewis community who are using turbulence models in propulsion related CFD. In this respect this workshop will help the Lewis goal of excelling in propulsion related research. This meeting had seven sessions for presentations and one panel discussion over a period of two days. Each presentation session was assigned to one or two branches (or groups) to present their turbulence related research work. Each group was asked to address at least the following points: current status of turbulence model applications and developments in the research; progress and existing problems; and requests about turbulence modeling. The panel discussion session was designed for organizing committee members to answer management and technical questions from the audience and to make concluding remarks.

  7. Numerical modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castle, Drew Clayton

    Understanding the conditions leading to the transition of fire spread from a surface fuel to an elevated (crown) fuel is critical to effective fire risk assessment and management. Surface fires that successfully transition to crown fires can be very difficult to suppress, potentially leading to damages in the natural and built environments. This is relevant to chaparral shrub lands which are common throughout parts of the Southwest U.S. and represent a significant part of the wildland urban interface. The ability of the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamic Simulator (WFDS) to model surface-to-crown fire transition was evaluated through comparison to laboratory experiments. The WFDS model is being developed by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The experiments were conducted at the USFS Forest Fire Laboratory in Riverside, California. The experiments measured the ignition of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) crown fuel held above a surface fire spreading through excelsior fuel. Cases with different crown fuel bulk densities, crown fuel base heights, and imposed wind speeds were considered. Cold-flow simulations yielded wind speed profiles that closely matched the experimental measurements. Next, fire simulations with only the surface fuel were conducted to verify the rate of spread while factors such as substrate properties were varied. Finally, simulations with both a surface fuel and a crown fuel were completed. Examination of specific surface fire characteristics (rate of spread, flame angle, etc.) and the corresponding experimental surface fire behavior provided a basis for comparison of the factors most responsible for transition from a surface fire to the raised fuel ignition. The rate of spread was determined by tracking the flame in the Smokeview animations using a tool developed for tracking an actual flame in a video. WFDS simulations produced results in both surface fire spread and raised fuel bed

  8. Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

    SciTech Connect

    Kloster, Silvia; Mahowald, Natalie; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter E; Hoffman, Forrest M; Levis, Sam; Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johan J.; Oleson, Keith; Lawrence, David M.

    2011-01-01

    Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997 2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000 2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO-induced drought conditions.

  9. Dynamics of the exponential integrate-and-fire model with slow currents and adaptation.

    PubMed

    Barranca, Victor J; Johnson, Daniel C; Moyher, Jennifer L; Sauppe, Joshua P; Shkarayev, Maxim S; Kovačič, Gregor; Cai, David

    2014-08-01

    In order to properly capture spike-frequency adaptation with a simplified point-neuron model, we study approximations of Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) models including slow currents by exponential integrate-and-fire (EIF) models that incorporate the same types of currents. We optimize the parameters of the EIF models under the external drive consisting of AMPA-type conductance pulses using the current-voltage curves and the van Rossum metric to best capture the subthreshold membrane potential, firing rate, and jump size of the slow current at the neuron's spike times. Our numerical simulations demonstrate that, in addition to these quantities, the approximate EIF-type models faithfully reproduce bifurcation properties of the HH neurons with slow currents, which include spike-frequency adaptation, phase-response curves, critical exponents at the transition between a finite and infinite number of spikes with increasing constant external drive, and bifurcation diagrams of interspike intervals in time-periodically forced models. Dynamics of networks of HH neurons with slow currents can also be approximated by corresponding EIF-type networks, with the approximation being at least statistically accurate over a broad range of Poisson rates of the external drive. For the form of external drive resembling realistic, AMPA-like synaptic conductance response to incoming action potentials, the EIF model affords great savings of computation time as compared with the corresponding HH-type model. Our work shows that the EIF model with additional slow currents is well suited for use in large-scale, point-neuron models in which spike-frequency adaptation is important. PMID:24443127

  10. MODEL IDENTIFICATION AND COMPUTER ALGEBRA

    PubMed Central

    Bollen, Kenneth A.; Bauldry, Shawn

    2011-01-01

    Multiequation models that contain observed or latent variables are common in the social sciences. To determine whether unique parameter values exist for such models, one needs to assess model identification. In practice analysts rely on empirical checks that evaluate the singularity of the information matrix evaluated at sample estimates of parameters. The discrepancy between estimates and population values, the limitations of numerical assessments of ranks, and the difference between local and global identification make this practice less than perfect. In this paper we outline how to use computer algebra systems (CAS) to determine the local and global identification of multiequation models with or without latent variables. We demonstrate a symbolic CAS approach to local identification and develop a CAS approach to obtain explicit algebraic solutions for each of the model parameters. We illustrate the procedures with several examples, including a new proof of the identification of a model for handling missing data using auxiliary variables. We present an identification procedure for Structural Equation Models that makes use of CAS and that is a useful complement to current methods. PMID:21769158

  11. MODEL IDENTIFICATION AND COMPUTER ALGEBRA.

    PubMed

    Bollen, Kenneth A; Bauldry, Shawn

    2010-10-01

    Multiequation models that contain observed or latent variables are common in the social sciences. To determine whether unique parameter values exist for such models, one needs to assess model identification. In practice analysts rely on empirical checks that evaluate the singularity of the information matrix evaluated at sample estimates of parameters. The discrepancy between estimates and population values, the limitations of numerical assessments of ranks, and the difference between local and global identification make this practice less than perfect. In this paper we outline how to use computer algebra systems (CAS) to determine the local and global identification of multiequation models with or without latent variables. We demonstrate a symbolic CAS approach to local identification and develop a CAS approach to obtain explicit algebraic solutions for each of the model parameters. We illustrate the procedures with several examples, including a new proof of the identification of a model for handling missing data using auxiliary variables. We present an identification procedure for Structural Equation Models that makes use of CAS and that is a useful complement to current methods.

  12. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    PubMed

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  13. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California

    PubMed Central

    Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A.; Waller, Eric K.; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change. PMID:27124597

  14. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    PubMed

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change. PMID:27124597

  15. Simulating the Effects of Fire on Forests in the Russian Far East: Integrating a Fire Danger Model and the FAREAST Forest Growth Model Across a Complex Landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherman, N. J.; Loboda, T.; Sun, G.; Shugart, H. H.; Csiszar, I.

    2008-12-01

    The remaining natural habitat of the critically endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) and Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) is a vast, biologically and topographically diverse area in the Russian Far East (RFE). Although wildland fire is a natural component of ecosystem functioning in the RFE, severe or repeated fires frequently re-set the process of forest succession, which may take centuries to return the affected forests to the pre-fire state and thus significantly alters habitat quality and long-term availability. The frequency of severe fire events has increased over the last 25 years, leading to irreversible modifications of some parts of the species' habitats. Moreover, fire regimes are expected to continue to change toward more frequent and severe events under the influence of climate change. Here we present an approach to developing capabilities for a comprehensive assessment of potential Amur tiger and leopard habitat availability throughout the 21st century by integrating regionally parameterized fire danger and forest growth models. The FAREAST model is an individual, gap-based model that simulates forest growth in a single location and demonstrates temporally explicit forest succession leading to mature forests. Including spatially explicit information on probabilities of fire occurrence at 1 km resolution developed from the regionally specific remotely -sensed data-driven fire danger model improves our ability to provide realistic long-term projections of potential forest composition in the RFE. This work presents the first attempt to merge the FAREAST model with a fire disturbance model, to validate its outputs across a large region, and to compare it to remotely-sensed data products as well as in situ assessments of forest structure. We ran the FAREAST model at 1,000 randomly selected points within forested areas in the RFE. At each point, the model was calibrated for temperature, precipitation, slope, elevation, and fire

  16. WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION MODELING: INTEGRATING BLUESKY AND SMOKE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation is a summary of an improved method to estimate emissions from wildland fires. An interagency agreement between the US Forest Service and the US EPA has made it possible for these two agencies to collaborate in the study of wildland fires.

  17. Los Alamos Center for Computer Security formal computer security model

    SciTech Connect

    Dreicer, J.S.; Hunteman, W.J.; Markin, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    This paper provides a brief presentation of the formal computer security model currently being developed at the Los Alamos Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Computer Security (CCS). The need to test and verify DOE computer security policy implementation first motivated this effort. The actual analytical model was a result of the integration of current research in computer security and previous modeling and research experiences. The model is being developed to define a generic view of the computer and network security domains, to provide a theoretical basis for the design of a security model, and to address the limitations of present formal mathematical models for computer security. The fundamental objective of computer security is to prevent the unauthorized and unaccountable access to a system. The inherent vulnerabilities of computer systems result in various threats from unauthorized access. The foundation of the Los Alamos DOE CCS model is a series of functionally dependent probability equations, relations, and expressions. The model is undergoing continued discrimination and evolution. We expect to apply the model to the discipline of the Bell and LaPadula abstract sets of objects and subjects. 6 refs.

  18. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  19. Computational models and resource allocation for supercomputers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauney, Jon; Agrawal, Dharma P.; Harcourt, Edwin A.; Choe, Young K.; Kim, Sukil

    1989-01-01

    There are several different architectures used in supercomputers, with differing computational models. These different models present a variety of resource allocation problems that must be solved. The computational needs of a program must be cast in terms of the computational model supported by the supercomputer, and this must be done in a way that makes effective use of the machine's resources. This is the resource allocation problem. The computational models of available supercomputers and the associated resource allocation techniques are surveyed. It is shown that many problems and solutions appear repeatedly in very different computing environments. Some case studies are presented, showing concrete computational models and the allocation strategies used.

  20. Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anton, Kellie e.; Brown, Patrick F.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.

  1. Real-time monitoring of air pollution due to wildland fires, using OMEGA model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhoi, S.; Boybeyi, Z.; Qu, J. J.

    2005-12-01

    In this study a mesoscale mode coupled with near real-time remote sensing data, has been applied to forecast air pollution due to wildland fires. Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) developed by SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation) is used in our current study. Satellite images have been used along with the NFDRS (National Fire Danger Rating) fuel load data to estimate the current fuel load available for burning. Emission from the fire has been calculated by estimating the area burned by the fire using real-time satellite data, and using emission factors given by EPA (Environmental Protection Agency). We have concentrated our efforts on estimating the emission of PM2.5 and Carbon Monoxide due to wildland fires. A forest fire in the Eastern United States has been taken as a case study and the accuracy and efficiency of the model to run on real time basis has been shown. The whole processing is done using a sixteen node parallel cluster, so as to speed up the processing time for the model. A framework has been proposed to use mesoscale model along with real-time remote sending data to automatically detect fire pixels, run the model and generate the output in GIS (Geographic Information Systems) format to be distributed on the web. This will facilitate rapid distribution of forecast result which will be of immense help to persons involved in disaster management of wildland fires.

  2. Development of customized fire behavior fuel models for boreal forests of northeastern China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Zhi Wei; He, Hong Shi; Chang, Yu; Liu, Zhi Hua; Chen, Hong Wei

    2011-12-01

    Knowledge of forest fuels and their potential fire behavior across a landscape is essential in fire management. Four customized fire behavior fuel models that differed significantly in fuels characteristics and environmental conditions were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis based on fuels data collected across a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China. Fuel model I represented the dense and heavily branched Pinus pumila shrubland which has significant fine live woody fuels. These forests occur mainly at higher mountain elevations. Fuel model II is applicable to forests dominated by Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana occurring in native forests on hill slopes or at low mountain elevations. This fuel model was differentiated from other fuel models by higher herbaceous cover and lower fine live woody loading. The primary coniferous forests dominated by Larix gmelini and Pinus sylvestris L. var. mongolica were classified as fuel model III and fuel model IV. Those fuel models differed from one another in average cover and height of understory shrub and herbaceous layers as well as in aspect. The potential fire behavior for each fuel model was simulated with the BehavePlus5.0 fire behavior prediction system. The simulation results indicated that the Pinus pumila shrubland fuels had the most severe fire behavior for the 97th percentile weather condition, and had the least severe fire behavior under 90th percentile weather condition. Fuel model II presented the least severe fire potential across weather conditions. Fuel model IV resulted in greater fire severity than Fuel model III across the two weather scenarios that were examined.

  3. Modelling study of NOx removal in oil-fired waste off-gases under electron beam irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zwolińska, Ewa; Sun, Yongxia; Chmielewski, A. G.; Nichipor, H.; Bulka, S.

    2015-08-01

    Computer simulations for high concentration of NOx removal from oil-fired waste off-gases under electron beam irradiation were carried out by using the Computer code "Kinetic" and GEAR method. 293 reactions involving 64 species were used for the modelling calculations. The composition of simulated oil-fired off-gas was the same as the experimental conditions. The calculations were made for following system: (75.78% N2+11.5% CO2+8.62% H2O+4.1% O2), NOx concentration varies from 200 ppm to 1500 ppm. Calculation results qualitatively agree with the experimental results. Furthermore the influence of temperature, SO2 concentration and ammonia addition is discussed.

  4. COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS MODELING ANALYSIS OF COMBUSTORS

    SciTech Connect

    Mathur, M.P.; Freeman, Mark; Gera, Dinesh

    2001-11-06

    In the current fiscal year FY01, several CFD simulations were conducted to investigate the effects of moisture in biomass/coal, particle injection locations, and flow parameters on carbon burnout and NO{sub x} inside a 150 MW GEEZER industrial boiler. Various simulations were designed to predict the suitability of biomass cofiring in coal combustors, and to explore the possibility of using biomass as a reburning fuel to reduce NO{sub x}. Some additional CFD simulations were also conducted on CERF combustor to examine the combustion characteristics of pulverized coal in enriched O{sub 2}/CO{sub 2} environments. Most of the CFD models available in the literature treat particles to be point masses with uniform temperature inside the particles. This isothermal condition may not be suitable for larger biomass particles. To this end, a stand alone program was developed from the first principles to account for heat conduction from the surface of the particle to its center. It is envisaged that the recently developed non-isothermal stand alone module will be integrated with the Fluent solver during next fiscal year to accurately predict the carbon burnout from larger biomass particles. Anisotropy in heat transfer in radial and axial will be explored using different conductivities in radial and axial directions. The above models will be validated/tested on various fullscale industrial boilers. The current NO{sub x} modules will be modified to account for local CH, CH{sub 2}, and CH{sub 3} radicals chemistry, currently it is based on global chemistry. It may also be worth exploring the effect of enriched O{sub 2}/CO{sub 2} environment on carbon burnout and NO{sub x} concentration. The research objective of this study is to develop a 3-Dimensional Combustor Model for Biomass Co-firing and reburning applications using the Fluent Computational Fluid Dynamics Code.

  5. A supply chain network design model for biomass co-firing in coal-fired power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Md. S. Roni; Sandra D. Eksioglu; Erin Searcy; Krishna Jha

    2014-01-01

    We propose a framework for designing the supply chain network for biomass co-firing in coal-fired power plants. This framework is inspired by existing practices with products with similar physical characteristics to biomass. We present a hub-and-spoke supply chain network design model for long-haul delivery of biomass. This model is a mixed integer linear program solved using benders decomposition algorithm. Numerical analysis indicates that 100 million tons of biomass are located within 75 miles from a coal plant and could be delivered at $8.53/dry-ton; 60 million tons of biomass are located beyond 75 miles and could be delivered at $36/dry-ton.

  6. Modeling fire spatial non-stationary in Portugal using GWR and GAMLSS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá, Ana C. L.; Amaral Turkman, Maria A.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Pereira, José M. C.

    2014-05-01

    Portuguese wildfires are responsible for large environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts and, in the last decade, vegetation fires consumed on average 140.000ha/year. Portugal has a unique fires-atlas of burnt scar perimeters covering the 1975-2009 period, which allows the assessment of the fire most affected areas. It's crucial to understand the influence of the main drivers of forest fires and its spatial distribution in order to set new management strategies to reduce its impacts. Thus, this study aims at evaluating the spatial stationarity of the fire-environment relationship using two statistical approaches: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Analysis was performed using a regular 2kmx2km cell size grid, a total of 21293 observations overlaying the mainland of Portugal. Fire incidence was determined as the number of times each grid cell burned in the 35 years period. For the GWR analysis the group of environmental variables selected as predictors are: ignition source (population density (PD)); vegetation (proportion of forest and shrubland (FORSHR)); and weather (total precipitation of the coldest quarter (PCQ). Results showed that the fire-environment relationship is non-stationary, thus the coefficient estimates of all the predictors vary spatially, both in magnitude and sign. The most statistically significant predictor is FORSHR, followed by the PCQ. Despite the relationship between fire incidence and PD is non-stationary, only 9% of the observations are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence. When compared with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) global model, 53% of the R2 statistic is above the 26% global estimated value, meaning a better explanation of the fire incidence variance with the local model approach. Using the same environmental variables, fire incidence was also modeled using GAMLSS to characterize nonstationarities in fire incidence. It is

  7. Rapid response tools and datasets for post-fire modeling: linking Earth Observations and process-based hydrological models to support post-fire remediation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, M. E.; Billmire, M.; Elliot, W. J.; Endsley, K. A.; Robichaud, P. R.

    2015-04-01

    Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation plans and treatments must be developed and implemented before the first major storms in order to be effective. One of the primary sources of information for making remediation decisions is a soil burn severity map derived from Earth Observation data (typically Landsat) that reflects fire induced changes in vegetation and soil properties. Slope, soils, land cover and climate are also important parameters that need to be considered. Spatially-explicit process-based models can account for these parameters, but they are currently under-utilized relative to simpler, lumped models because they are difficult to set up and require spatially-explicit inputs (digital elevation models, soils, and land cover). Our goal is to make process-based models more accessible by preparing spatial inputs before a fire, so that datasets can be rapidly combined with soil burn severity maps and formatted for model use. We are building an online database (http://geodjango.mtri.org/geowepp /) for the continental United States that will allow users to upload soil burn severity maps. The soil burn severity map is combined with land cover and soil datasets to generate the spatial model inputs needed for hydrological modeling of burn scars. Datasets will be created to support hydrological models, post-fire debris flow models and a dry ravel model. Our overall vision for this project is that advanced GIS surface erosion and mass failure prediction tools will be readily available for post-fire analysis using spatial information from a single online site.

  8. 29 CFR Appendix A to Subpart P to... - Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory)

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory) A Appendix A to Subpart P to Part 1915 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH... Fire Protection in Shipyard Employment Pt. 1915, Subpt. P, App. A Appendix A to Subpart P to Part...

  9. 29 CFR Appendix A to Subpart P of... - Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory)

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory) A Appendix A to Subpart P of Part 1915 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH... Fire Protection in Shipyard Employment Pt. 1915, Subpt. P, App. A Appendix A to Subpart P of Part...

  10. 29 CFR Appendix A to Subpart P to... - Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory)

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Model Fire Safety Plan (Non-Mandatory) A Appendix A to Subpart P to Part 1915 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH... Fire Protection in Shipyard Employment Pt. 1915, Subpt. P, App. A Appendix A to Subpart P to Part...

  11. Using Modeling and Rehearsal to Teach Fire Safety to Children with Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia, David; Dukes, Charles; Brady, Michael P.; Scott, Jack; Wilson, Cynthia L.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the efficacy of an instructional procedure to teach young children with autism to evacuate settings and notify an adult during a fire alarm. A multiple baseline design across children showed that an intervention that included modeling, rehearsal, and praise was effective in teaching fire safety skills. Safety skills generalized to…

  12. Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Erosion Modeling: An Online Database to Support Post-fire Erosion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, M. E.; Russel, A. M.; Billmire, M.; Endsley, K.; Elliot, W. E.; Robichaud, P. R.; MacDonald, L. H.; Renschler, C. S.

    2013-12-01

    Once the danger posed by an active wildfire has passed, land managers must rapidly assess risks posed by post-fire runoff and erosion due to fire-induced changes in soil properties and the loss of surface cover. Post-fire assessments and proposals to mitigate risks to downstream areas due to flooding, erosion, and sedimentation are typically undertaken by interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams. One of the first and most important priorities of a BAER team is the development of a burn severity map that reflects the fire-induced changes in both vegetative cover and soils. Currently these maps are known as BARC (Burned Area Reflectance Classification) maps and they are generated from multi-spectral remote sensing data. BAER teams also have access to many erosion modeling tools and datasets, but process-based, spatially explicit models are currently under-utilized relative to simpler, lumped models because they are more difficult to set up and they require the preparation of spatially-explicit data layers such as digital elevation models (DEM), soils, and land cover. We are working to make spatially-explicit modeling easier by preparing large-scale spatial data sets that can be rapidly combined with burn severity maps and then used to quickly run more accurate, process-based models for spatially explicit predictions of post-fire erosion and runoff. A prototype database consisting of 30-m DEM, soil, land cover, and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) maps for Colorado has been created for use in GeoWEPP (Geo-spatial interface for the Water Erosion Prediction Project) with Disturbed WEPP parameters developed for post-fire conditions. Additional soil data layers have been gathered to support a spatial empirical debris flow model that also utilizes BARC maps. Future plans include developing the dataset to support other models commonly used by BAER teams. The importance of preparing spatial data ahead of time can be illustrated with two

  13. Evaluation of vegetation fire smoke plume dynamics and aerosol load using UV scanning lidar and fire-atmosphere modelling during the Mediterranean Letia 2010 experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroy-Cancellieri, V.; Augustin, P.; Filippi, J. B.; Mari, C.; Fourmentin, M.; Bosseur, F.; Morandini, F.; Delbarre, H.

    2013-08-01

    Vegetation fires emit large amount of gases and aerosols which are detrimental to human health. Smoke exposure near and downwind of fires depends on the fire propagation, the atmospheric circulations and the burnt vegetation. A better knowledge of the interaction between wildfire and atmosphere is a primary requirement to investigate fire smoke and particle transport. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the usefulness of an UV scanning lidar to characterize the fire smoke plume and consequently validate fire-atmosphere model simulations. An instrumented burn was conducted in a Mediterranean area typical of ones frequently concern by wildfire with low dense shrubs. Using Lidar measurements positioned near the experimental site, fire smoke plume was thoroughly characterized by its optical properties, edge and dynamics. These parameters were obtained by combining methods based on lidar inversion technique, wavelet edge detection and a backscatter barycenter technique. The smoke plume displacement was determined using a digital video camera coupled with the Lidar. The simulation was performed using a meso-scale atmospheric model in a large eddy simulation configuration (Meso-NH) coupled to a fire propagation physical model (ForeFire) taking into account the effect of wind, slope and fuel properties. A passive numerical scalar tracer was injected in the model at fire location to mimic the smoke plume. The simulated fire smoke plume width remained within the edge smoke plume obtained from lidar measurements. The maximum smoke injection derived from lidar backscatter coefficients and the simulated passive tracer was around 200 m. The vertical position of the simulated plume barycenter was systematically below the barycenter derived from the lidar backscatter coefficients due to the oversimplified properties of the passive tracer compared to real aerosols particles. Simulated speed and horizontal location of the plume compared well with the observations derived from

  14. Evaluation of wildland fire smoke plume dynamics and aerosol load using UV scanning lidar and fire-atmosphere modelling during the Mediterranean Letia 2010 experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroy-Cancellieri, V.; Augustin, P.; Filippi, J. B.; Mari, C.; Fourmentin, M.; Bosseur, F.; Morandini, F.; Delbarre, H.

    2014-03-01

    Vegetation fires emit large amount of gases and aerosols which are detrimental to human health. Smoke exposure near and downwind of fires depends on the fire propagation, the atmospheric circulations and the burnt vegetation. A better knowledge of the interaction between wildfire and atmosphere is a primary requirement to investigate fire smoke and particle transport. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the usefulness of an UV scanning lidar to characterise the fire smoke plume and consequently validate fire-atmosphere model simulations. An instrumented burn was conducted in a Mediterranean area typical of ones frequently subject to wildfire with low dense shrubs. Using lidar measurements positioned near the experimental site, fire smoke plume was thoroughly characterised by its optical properties, edge and dynamics. These parameters were obtained by combining methods based on lidar inversion technique, wavelet edge detection and a backscatter barycentre technique. The smoke plume displacement was determined using a digital video camera coupled with the lidar. The simulation was performed using a mesoscale atmospheric model in a large eddy simulation configuration (Meso-NH) coupled to a fire propagation physical model (ForeFire), taking into account the effect of wind, slope and fuel properties. A passive numerical scalar tracer was injected in the model at fire location to mimic the smoke plume. The simulated fire smoke plume width remained within the edge smoke plume obtained from lidar measurements. The maximum smoke injection derived from lidar backscatter coefficients and the simulated passive tracer was around 200 m. The vertical position of the simulated plume barycentre was systematically below the barycentre derived from the lidar backscatter coefficients due to the oversimplified properties of the passive tracer compared to real aerosol particles. Simulated speed and horizontal location of the plume compared well with the observations derived from

  15. A Model Computer Literacy Course.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orndorff, Joseph

    Designed to address the varied computer skill levels of college students, this proposed computer literacy course would be modular in format, with modules tailored to address various levels of expertise and permit individualized instruction. An introductory module would present both the history and future of computers and computing, followed by an…

  16. Modeling and simulation of fire spreading through the activity tracking paradigm

    SciTech Connect

    Muzy,; Nutaro, James J; Zeigler, Bernard P; Coquillard,

    2008-01-01

    Modeling and simulation is essential for understanding complex ecological systems. However, knowledge of the structure and behavior of these systems is limited, and models must be revised frequently as our understanding of a system improves. Moreover, the dynamic, spatial distribution of activity in very large systems necessitates mapping natural mechanisms as logically as possible onto computer structures. This paper describes theoretical and algorithmic tools for building component-based models and simulations of dynamic spatial phenomena. These methods focus attention on and exploit the irregular distribution of activity in ecological processes. We use the DEVS formalism as the basis for a component based approach to modeling spatially distributed systems. DEVS is a mathematical theory of discrete-event systems that is well suited for describing large systems that are described by small parts with irregular, short-range interactions. This event-based approach to modeling leads naturally to efficient simulations algorithms which focus on the active parts of a large model. Ecological modeling benefits from these efficient the simulation algorithms and the reusability of the model s basic components. Our event-based method is demonstrated with a physics-based model of fire spread.

  17. A Computational Theory of Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossberg, Axel G.

    2003-04-01

    A metatheory is developed which characterizes the relationship between a modelled system, which complies with some ``basic theory'', and a model, which does not, and yet reproduces important aspects of the modelled system. A model is represented by an (in a certain sense, s.b.) optimal algorithm which generates data that describe the model's state or evolution complying with a ``reduced theory''. Theories are represented by classes of (in a similar sense, s.b.) optimal algorithms that test if their input data comply with the theory. The metatheory does not prescribe the formalisms (data structure, language) to be used for the description of states or evolutions. Transitions to other formalisms and loss of accuracy, common to theory reduction, are explicitly accounted for. The basic assumption of the theory is that resources such as the code length (~ programming time) and the computation time for modelling and testing are costly, but the relative cost of each recourse is unknown. Thus, if there is an algorithm a for which there is no other algorithm b solving the same problem but using less of each recourse, then a is considered optimal. For tests (theories), the set X of wrongly admitted inputs is treated as another resource. It is assumed that X1 is cheaper than X2 when X1 ⊂ X2 (X1 ≠ X2). Depending on the problem, the algorithmic complexity of a reduced theory can be smaller or larger than that of the basic theory. The theory might help to distinguish actual properties of complex systems from mere mental constructs. An application to complex spatio-temporal patterns is discussed.

  18. Comparison of Fire Model Predictions with Experiments Conducted in a Hangar With a 15 Meter Ceiling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, W. D.; Notarianni, K. A.; McGrattan, K. B.

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive capabilities of fire models using the results of a series of fire experiments conducted in an aircraft hangar with a ceiling height of about 15 m. This study is designed to investigate model applicability at a ceiling height where only a limited amount of experimental data is available. This analysis deals primarily with temperature comparisons as a function of distance from the fire center and depth beneath the ceiling. Only limited velocity measurements in the ceiling jet were available but these are also compared with those models with a velocity predictive capability.

  19. Computational model for chromosomal instabilty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zapperi, Stefano; Bertalan, Zsolt; Budrikis, Zoe; La Porta, Caterina

    2015-03-01

    Faithful segregation of genetic material during cell division requires alignment of the chromosomes between the spindle poles and attachment of their kinetochores to each of the poles. Failure of these complex dynamical processes leads to chromosomal instability (CIN), a characteristic feature of several diseases including cancer. While a multitude of biological factors regulating chromosome congression and bi-orientation have been identified, it is still unclear how they are integrated into a coherent picture. Here we address this issue by a three dimensional computational model of motor-driven chromosome congression and bi-orientation. Our model reveals that successful cell division requires control of the total number of microtubules: if this number is too small bi-orientation fails, while if it is too large not all the chromosomes are able to congress. The optimal number of microtubules predicted by our model compares well with early observations in mammalian cell spindles. Our results shed new light on the origin of several pathological conditions related to chromosomal instability.

  20. Modeling syngas-fired gas turbine engines with two dilutants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawk, Mitchell E.

    2011-12-01

    Prior gas turbine engine modeling work at the University of Wyoming studied cycle performance and turbine design with air and CO2-diluted GTE cycles fired with methane and syngas fuels. Two of the cycles examined were unconventional and innovative. The work presented herein reexamines prior results and expands the modeling by including the impacts of turbine cooling and CO2 sequestration on GTE cycle performance. The simple, conventional regeneration and two alternative regeneration cycle configurations were examined. In contrast to air dilution, CO2 -diluted cycle efficiencies increased by approximately 1.0 percentage point for the three regeneration configurations examined, while the efficiency of the CO2-diluted simple cycle decreased by approximately 5.0 percentage points. For CO2-diluted cycles with a closed-exhaust recycling path, an optimum CO2-recycle pressure was determined for each configuration that was significantly lower than atmospheric pressure. Un-cooled alternative regeneration configurations with CO2 recycling achieved efficiencies near 50%, which was approximately 3.0 percentage points higher than the conventional regeneration cycle and simple cycle configurations that utilized CO2 recycling. Accounting for cooling of the first two turbine stages resulted in a 2--3 percentage point reduction in un-cooled efficiency, with air dilution corresponding to the upper extreme. Additionally, when the work required to sequester CO2 was accounted for, cooled cycle efficiency decreased by 4--6 percentage points, and was more negatively impacted when syngas fuels were used. Finally, turbine design models showed that turbine blades are shorter with CO2 dilution, resulting in fewer design restrictions.

  1. Improving the representation of fire disturbance in dynamic vegetation models by assimilating satellite data: a case study over the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantzas, E. P.; Quegan, S.; Lomas, M.

    2015-08-01

    Fire provides an impulsive and stochastic pathway for carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to enter the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being of similar magnitude to net ecosystem exchange in many biomes, even the most complex dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) embedded in general circulation models contain poor representations of fire behaviour and dynamics, such as propagation and distribution of fire sizes. A model-independent methodology is developed which addresses this issue. Its focus is on the Arctic where fire is linked to permafrost dynamics and on occasion can release great amounts of carbon from carbon-rich organic soils. Connected-component labelling is used to identify individual fire events across Canada and Russia from daily, low-resolution burned area satellite products, and the obtained fire size probability distributions are validated against historical data. This allows the creation of a fire database holding information on area burned and temporal evolution of fires in space and time. A method of assimilating the statistical distribution of fire area into a DVM whilst maintaining its fire return interval is then described. The algorithm imposes a regional scale spatially dependent fire regime on a sub-scale spatially independent model; the fire regime is described by large-scale statistical distributions of fire intensity and spatial extent, and the temporal dynamics (fire return intervals) are determined locally. This permits DVMs to estimate many aspects of post-fire dynamics that cannot occur under their current representations of fire, as is illustrated by considering the modelled evolution of land cover, biomass and net ecosystem exchange after a fire.

  2. Fire Detection Organizing Questions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    Verified models of fire precursor transport in low and partial gravity: a. Development of models for large-scale transport in reduced gravity. b. Validated CFD simulations of transport of fire precursors. c. Evaluation of the effect of scale on transport and reduced gravity fires. Advanced fire detection system for gaseous and particulate pre-fire and fire signaturesa: a. Quantification of pre-fire pyrolysis products in microgravity. b. Suite of gas and particulate sensors. c. Reduced gravity evaluation of candidate detector technologies. d. Reduced gravity verification of advanced fire detection system. e. Validated database of fire and pre-fire signatures in low and partial gravity.

  3. 75 FR 5355 - Notice of Extension of Comment Period for NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-02

    ... Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment'' in the Federal Register (74 FR 68873... COMMISSION Notice of Extension of Comment Period for NUREG-1934, Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application Guide (NPP FIRE MAG), Draft Report for Comment AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission....

  4. Computational modeling of membrane proteins

    PubMed Central

    Leman, Julia Koehler; Ulmschneider, Martin B.; Gray, Jeffrey J.

    2014-01-01

    The determination of membrane protein (MP) structures has always trailed that of soluble proteins due to difficulties in their overexpression, reconstitution into membrane mimetics, and subsequent structure determination. The percentage of MP structures in the protein databank (PDB) has been at a constant 1-2% for the last decade. In contrast, over half of all drugs target MPs, only highlighting how little we understand about drug-specific effects in the human body. To reduce this gap, researchers have attempted to predict structural features of MPs even before the first structure was experimentally elucidated. In this review, we present current computational methods to predict MP structure, starting with secondary structure prediction, prediction of trans-membrane spans, and topology. Even though these methods generate reliable predictions, challenges such as predicting kinks or precise beginnings and ends of secondary structure elements are still waiting to be addressed. We describe recent developments in the prediction of 3D structures of both α-helical MPs as well as β-barrels using comparative modeling techniques, de novo methods, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The increase of MP structures has (1) facilitated comparative modeling due to availability of more and better templates, and (2) improved the statistics for knowledge-based scoring functions. Moreover, de novo methods have benefitted from the use of correlated mutations as restraints. Finally, we outline current advances that will likely shape the field in the forthcoming decade. PMID:25355688

  5. Color model and method for video fire flame and smoke detection using Fisher linear discriminant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Yuan; Jie, Li; Jun, Fang; Yongming, Zhang

    2013-02-01

    Video fire detection is playing an increasingly important role in our life. But recent research is often based on a traditional RGB color model used to analyze the flame, which may be not the optimal color space for fire recognition. It is worse when we research smoke simply using gray images instead of color ones. We clarify the importance of color information for fire detection. We present a fire discriminant color (FDC) model for flame or smoke recognition based on color images. The FDC models aim to unify fire color image representation and fire recognition task into one framework. With the definition of between-class scatter matrices and within-class scatter matrices of Fisher linear discriminant, the proposed models seek to obtain one color-space-transform matrix and a discriminate projection basis vector by maximizing the ratio of these two scatter matrices. First, an iterative basic algorithm is designed to get one-component color space transformed from RGB. Then, a general algorithm is extended to generate three-component color space for further improvement. Moreover, we propose a method for video fire detection based on the models using the kNN classifier. To evaluate the recognition performance, we create a database including flame, smoke, and nonfire images for training and testing. The test experiments show that the proposed model achieves a flame verification rate receiver operating characteristic (ROC I) of 97.5% at a false alarm rate (FAR) of 1.06% and a smoke verification rate (ROC II) of 91.5% at a FAR of 1.2%, and lots of fire video experiments demonstrate that our method reaches a high accuracy for fire recognition.

  6. A Simple Model for the Movement of Fire Smoke in a Confined Tunnel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neophytou, M. K.-A.; Britter, R. E.

    2005-10-01

    Fires in tunnels are unfortunately frequent occurrences often with tragic outcomes. A recent example is the fire on the funicular train at the ski resort in Kaprun (Austria), which caused nearly 160 deaths. Design engineers and risk analysts require knowledge of the fluid dynamics of the fire and smoke movement to answer questions such as how much oxygen can access and feed the fire, and what concentration of smoke will the people be exposed to. As an example in the Austrian accident the geometry was a long tunnel with fire doors closed at one end, and with a fire initiated near the closed (lower) end. The hot smoke from the fire is a source of buoyancy; the smoke reaches the ceiling of the tunnel, and then develops along the ceiling as a wall-bounded plume. The motion of the smoke is driven by a buoyancy force, but at the same time, mechanisms of turbulent heat and mass transfer act as a brake to this motion. In this paper we present how a generic model describing a semi-enclosed buoyancy-driven flow can be interpreted and used in the modelling of fire smoke movement in a confined tunnel. A consideration of the net pollutant volume flux through the tunnel leads to predictions for the variation of concentrations along the tunnel. The smoke concentrations near the fire smoke source scale linearly with the length of the tunnel, with higher concentrations at the lower section of the tunnel, as could be expected. Similarly the concentration of oxygen making its way through to the fire source decreases linearly with the length of the tunnel. A lower bound estimate of the smoke residence time can be obtained based on smoke concentration predictions from the model.

  7. Cupola Furnace Computer Process Model

    SciTech Connect

    Seymour Katz

    2004-12-31

    The cupola furnace generates more than 50% of the liquid iron used to produce the 9+ million tons of castings annually. The cupola converts iron and steel into cast iron. The main advantages of the cupola furnace are lower energy costs than those of competing furnaces (electric) and the ability to melt less expensive metallic scrap than the competing furnaces. However the chemical and physical processes that take place in the cupola furnace are highly complex making it difficult to operate the furnace in optimal fashion. The results are low energy efficiency and poor recovery of important and expensive alloy elements due to oxidation. Between 1990 and 2004 under the auspices of the Department of Energy, the American Foundry Society and General Motors Corp. a computer simulation of the cupola furnace was developed that accurately describes the complex behavior of the furnace. When provided with the furnace input conditions the model provides accurate values of the output conditions in a matter of seconds. It also provides key diagnostics. Using clues from the diagnostics a trained specialist can infer changes in the operation that will move the system toward higher efficiency. Repeating the process in an iterative fashion leads to near optimum operating conditions with just a few iterations. More advanced uses of the program have been examined. The program is currently being combined with an ''Expert System'' to permit optimization in real time. The program has been combined with ''neural network'' programs to affect very easy scanning of a wide range of furnace operation. Rudimentary efforts were successfully made to operate the furnace using a computer. References to these more advanced systems will be found in the ''Cupola Handbook''. Chapter 27, American Foundry Society, Des Plaines, IL (1999).

  8. Forest fire risk assessment in Sweden using climate model data: bias correction and future changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, W.; Gardelin, M.; Olsson, J.; Bosshard, T.

    2015-01-01

    As the risk for a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

  9. INFERNO: a fire and emissions scheme for the UK Met Office's Unified Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mangeon, Stéphane; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Gilham, Richard; Harper, Anna; Sitch, Stephen; Folberth, Gerd

    2016-08-01

    Warm and dry climatological conditions favour the occurrence of forest fires. These fires then become a significant emission source to the atmosphere. Despite this global importance, fires are a local phenomenon and are difficult to represent in large-scale Earth system models (ESMs). To address this, the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO) was developed. INFERNO follows a reduced complexity approach and is intended for decadal- to centennial-scale climate simulations and assessment models for policy making. Fuel flammability is simulated using temperature, relative humidity (RH) and fuel load as well as precipitation and soil moisture. Combining flammability with ignitions and vegetation, the burnt area is diagnosed. Emissions of carbon and key species are estimated using the carbon scheme in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. JULES also possesses fire index diagnostics, which we document and compare with our fire scheme. We found INFERNO captured global burnt area variability better than individual indices, and these performed best for their native regions. Two meteorology data sets and three ignition modes are used to validate the model. INFERNO is shown to effectively diagnose global fire occurrence (R = 0.66) and emissions (R = 0.59) through an approach appropriate to the complexity of an ESM, although regional biases remain.

  10. A data model for route planning in the case of forest fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhiyong; Zlatanova, Sisi; Moreno, Aitor; van Oosterom, Peter; Toro, Carlos

    2014-07-01

    The ability to guide relief vehicles to safety and quickly pass through environments affected by fires is critical in fighting forest fires. In this paper, we focus on route determination in the case of forest fires, and propose a data model that supports finding paths among moving obstacles. This data model captures both static information, such as the type of the response team, the topology of the road network, and dynamic information, such as sensor information, changing availabilities of roads during disasters, and the position of the vehicle. We use a fire simulation model to calculate the fire evolution. The spread of the fire is represented as movements of obstacles that block the responders' path in the road network. To calculate safe and optimal routes avoiding obstacles, the A* algorithm is extended to consider the predicted availabilities of roads. We prove the optimality of the path calculated by our algorithm and then evaluate it in simulated scenarios. The results show that our model and algorithm are effective in planning routes that avoid one or more fire-affected areas and that the outlook for further investigation is promising.

  11. Computer modeling of a convective steam superheater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trojan, Marcin

    2015-03-01

    Superheater is for generating superheated steam from the saturated steam from the evaporator outlet. In the case of pulverized coal fired boiler, a relatively small amount of ash causes problems with ash fouling on the heating surfaces, including the superheaters. In the convection pass of the boiler, the flue gas temperature is lower and ash deposits can be loose or sintered. Ash fouling not only reduces heat transfer from the flue gas to the steam, but also is the cause of a higher pressure drop on the flue gas flow path. In the case the pressure drop is greater than the power consumed by the fan increases. If the superheater surfaces are covered with ash than the steam temperature at the outlet of the superheater stages falls, and the flow rates of the water injected into attemperator should be reduced. There is also an increase in flue gas temperature after the different stages of the superheater. Consequently, this leads to a reduction in boiler efficiency. The paper presents the results of computational fluid dynamics simulations of the first stage superheater of both the boiler OP-210M using the commercial software. The temperature distributions of the steam and flue gas along the way they flow together with temperature of the tube walls and temperature of the ash deposits will be determined. The calculated steam temperature is compared with measurement results. Knowledge of these temperatures is of great practical importance because it allows to choose the grade of steel for a given superheater stage. Using the developed model of the superheater to determine its degree of ash fouling in the on-line mode one can control the activation frequency of steam sootblowers.

  12. Modeling the effects of fire on streamflow in a chaparral watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMichael, Christine Eleana

    A comprehensive understanding of the effects of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in California chaparral watersheds is needed to facilitate effective planning and management in these semi-arid shrublands. Watershed experiments have provided insights into the hydrologic effects of fire and post fire succession in chaparral watersheds, however extrapolation of these results is constrained by the small number of studies and the limited space and/or time scales examined. As it was not logistically or economically feasible to conduct additional field experiments for this research, an integrated remote sensing-distributed hydrological modeling strategy was utilized to advance our understanding of the effects of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in these ecosystems. A wide range of inputs was derived for a modified version of the distributed, physically-based MIKE-SHE model using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, including the development of a remote sensing-chronosequence approach for estimating the post-fire recovery sequence of chaparral leaf area index (a key input given that approximately 75% of incoming rainfall is returned to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration). The Monte Carlo-based Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology provided the framework for model calibration, testing, and predictive uncertainty estimation. Model simulations were performed using a suite of fire size-weather regime combinations to investigate the impacts of fire on annual and seasonal streamflow dynamics. Over two-thirds of the observations (comprising over 90% of the total observed flow) in the calibration and test periods were contained within the GLUE-based predictive uncertainty bounds, an acceptable level of model performance relative to total period flow; prediction errors were generally associated with large rainfall and fire events. Model simulation results demonstrated that seasonal

  13. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, E.S.

    1989-04-01

    This is the sixth quarterly report of DOE Contract No. DE-AC22- 87PC79863, entitled Modeling of Integrated Environmental Control Systems for Coal-Fired Power Plants.'' This report summarizes accomplishments during the period January 1, 1989 to March 31, 1989. Efforts this past quarter focused primarily on the preparation of a computer User's Guide for the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM). Drafts of the first two chapters are now complete. These chapters constitute the bulk of this quarterly report. Drafts of the remaining chapters are in preparation, and will appear in a future report this year. We also have been working closely with DOE/PETC to define the computer configuration to be transferred to PETC as a contract deliverable. That process is now complete and the equipment is on order. Delivery of the IECM to PETC is expected during the next calendar quarter. Finally, we are continuing our efforts to develop and refine a number of clean coal technology process models. These efforts will be summarized and reported at a future date.

  14. Fire modeling for Building 221-T - T Plant Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel

    SciTech Connect

    Oar, D.L.

    1994-09-29

    This report was prepared by Hughes Associates, Inc. to document the results of fire models for building 221-T Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel. Backup data is contained in document No. WHC-SD-CP-ANAL-010, Rev. 0.

  15. Disciplines, models, and computers: the path to computational quantum chemistry.

    PubMed

    Lenhard, Johannes

    2014-12-01

    Many disciplines and scientific fields have undergone a computational turn in the past several decades. This paper analyzes this sort of turn by investigating the case of computational quantum chemistry. The main claim is that the transformation from quantum to computational quantum chemistry involved changes in three dimensions. First, on the side of instrumentation, small computers and a networked infrastructure took over the lead from centralized mainframe architecture. Second, a new conception of computational modeling became feasible and assumed a crucial role. And third, the field of computa- tional quantum chemistry became organized in a market-like fashion and this market is much bigger than the number of quantum theory experts. These claims will be substantiated by an investigation of the so-called density functional theory (DFT), the arguably pivotal theory in the turn to computational quantum chemistry around 1990.

  16. Investigation on Temporal Changes of Relative Variables to Forest Fire using Spatial Statistical Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwak, H.; Kim, M.; Lee, W.; Won, M.; Koo, K.

    2011-12-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze spatial and temporal changes of forest fire. The most important characteristic of forest fire occurrence in South Korea is that all fires are human-caused. It is very difficult to estimating the relationship between human and a fire occurrence using general method, such as GIS, statistics and process modeling, since forest fire is related to spatial condition as well as temporal variety of climate factors. And the situation related to fire occurrence is being changed through time passes. Thus, integration of analysis on space and time can be a key in terms of a method. However, before this integration, to examine which factors have more relation to forest fire is very important to estimate the occurrence. And spatial autocorrelation is also important to estimate the occurrence of forest fire in South Korea because the forest fires have strong spatial dependency according to previous studies. In this study, we tried to examine the varieties on coefficients of independent variables of statistical model consider spatial autocorrelation. We used generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) which can consider spatial autocorrelation as the series of temporal variation changes. The variables which are used in this statistical model can be classified four categories, human accessibility, topography, forest cover and meteorological factors. The meteorological factors are used to know changes of fire occurrence pattern from the temporal variations. Time scale is set up by 10-days data. In the result, it showed that the range of spatial autocorrelation was changed by the temporal variance. The more fire occurs the more spatial autocorrelation showed. The estimated coefficients of fixed factors are also changed by the temporal series. In April, the significances of factors of human accessibility were increased. These result is attributed to the fact that national and traditional holidays in April made people visit mountain. However, the

  17. Simulating smoke transport from wildland fires with a regional-scale air quality model: sensitivity to spatiotemporal allocation of fire emissions.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Hu, Yongtao; Odman, Mehmet T

    2014-09-15

    Air quality forecasts generated with chemical transport models can provide valuable information about the potential impacts of fires on pollutant levels. However, significant uncertainties are associated with fire-related emission estimates as well as their distribution on gridded modeling domains. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of fine particulate matter concentrations predicted by a regional-scale air quality model to the spatial and temporal allocation of fire emissions. The assessment was completed by simulating a fire-related smoke episode in which air quality throughout the Atlanta metropolitan area was affected on February 28, 2007. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to evaluate the significance of emission distribution among the model's vertical layers, along the horizontal plane, and into hourly inputs. Predicted PM2.5 concentrations were highly sensitive to emission injection altitude relative to planetary boundary layer height. Simulations were also responsive to the horizontal allocation of fire emissions and their distribution into single or multiple grid cells. Additionally, modeled concentrations were greatly sensitive to the temporal distribution of fire-related emissions. The analyses demonstrate that, in addition to adequate estimates of emitted mass, successfully modeling the impacts of fires on air quality depends on an accurate spatiotemporal allocation of emissions. PMID:24973934

  18. Simulating smoke transport from wildland fires with a regional-scale air quality model: sensitivity to spatiotemporal allocation of fire emissions.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Hu, Yongtao; Odman, Mehmet T

    2014-09-15

    Air quality forecasts generated with chemical transport models can provide valuable information about the potential impacts of fires on pollutant levels. However, significant uncertainties are associated with fire-related emission estimates as well as their distribution on gridded modeling domains. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of fine particulate matter concentrations predicted by a regional-scale air quality model to the spatial and temporal allocation of fire emissions. The assessment was completed by simulating a fire-related smoke episode in which air quality throughout the Atlanta metropolitan area was affected on February 28, 2007. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to evaluate the significance of emission distribution among the model's vertical layers, along the horizontal plane, and into hourly inputs. Predicted PM2.5 concentrations were highly sensitive to emission injection altitude relative to planetary boundary layer height. Simulations were also responsive to the horizontal allocation of fire emissions and their distribution into single or multiple grid cells. Additionally, modeled concentrations were greatly sensitive to the temporal distribution of fire-related emissions. The analyses demonstrate that, in addition to adequate estimates of emitted mass, successfully modeling the impacts of fires on air quality depends on an accurate spatiotemporal allocation of emissions.

  19. Integrating Soft Data into Hydrologic Modeling to Improve Post-fire Parameter Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, H. Y.; Hogue, T. S.

    2008-12-01

    A significant problem with post-fire streamflow prediction is the limited availability of data for parameter estimation and for independent validation of model performance. The goal of the current study is to evaluate a range of optimization techniques which allow integration of alternative soft-data data into a hydrologic modeling and prediction framework and improve post-fire simulations. This project utilizes the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), the National Weather Service operational conceptual rainfall- runoff model and incorporates both discharge and geochemical data to estimate model parameters. The analysis is undertaken in a watershed which has undergone an extensive land cover change (fire) and for which both pre- and post-fire geochemical and streamflow data are available. We utilize the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) algorithms coupled to the SACSMA and integrate estimates of geochemically-derived flow components. Success is determined not only by the accurate prediction of total discharge, but also by the prediction of flow from contributing sources (i.e. overland, lateral and baseflow components). The coupled SCEM-SACSMA, using only discharge as a criterion, shows reasonable simulation of total runoff and various flow components under pre-fire conditions. Post-fire model simulations show less accurate simulation of total discharge and unrealistic representation of watershed behavior. Pre-fire model runs using the coupled GLUE-SACSMA show reasonable performance integrating total discharge as the threshold criteria; whereas the post fire model run returned empty parameter sets (no sets met threshold criteria). Predictions using the GLUE- SACSMA and derived flow components showed significant improvement, narrowing the uncertainty bounds in total discharge as well as all observed flow components.

  20. Modelling global CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from crown, ground, and peat fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Chernokulsky, Alexander V.

    2015-04-01

    The scheme for natural fires implemented in the climate model (CM) developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP RAS) is extended by a module accounting for ground and peat fires. With the IAP RAS CM, the simulations are performed for 1700-2300 in accordance with the CMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5) protocol. The modelled present-day burnt area, BA, and the corresponding CO2 emissions into the atmosphere E agree with the GFED-3.1 estimates at most regions. In the 21st century, under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios, the global BA increases by 10-41% depending on scenario, and E increases by 11-39%. Under the mitigation scenario RCP 2.6, both BA and E slightly decrease in the 22nd-23rd centuries. For scenarios RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, they continue to increase in these two centuries. All these changes are mostly due to changes in natural fires activity in the boreal regions. Ground and peat fires contribute significantly to the total emissions of CO2 from natural fires (20-25% at the global scale depending on scenario and calendar year). Peat fires markedly intensify interannual variability of regional CO2 emissions from natural fires.

  1. The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Henry, Candise L.; Randerson, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

  2. The Fermilab Central Computing Facility architectural model

    SciTech Connect

    Nicholls, J.

    1989-05-01

    The goal of the current Central Computing Upgrade at Fermilab is to create a computing environment that maximizes total productivity, particularly for high energy physics analysis. The Computing Department and the Next Computer Acquisition Committee decided upon a model which includes five components: an interactive front end, a Large-Scale Scientific Computer (LSSC, a mainframe computing engine), a microprocessor farm system, a file server, and workstations. With the exception of the file server, all segments of this model are currently in production: a VAX/VMS Cluster interactive front end, an Amdahl VM computing engine, ACP farms, and (primarily) VMS workstations. This presentation will discuss the implementation of the Fermilab Central Computing Facility Architectural Model. Implications for Code Management in such a heterogeneous environment, including issues such as modularity and centrality, will be considered. Special emphasis will be placed on connectivity and communications between the front-end, LSSC, and workstations, as practiced at Fermilab. 2 figs.

  3. Linear Modeling and Evaluation of Controls on Flow Response in Western Post-Fire Watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saxe, S.; Hogue, T. S.; Hay, L.

    2015-12-01

    This research investigates the impact of wildfires on watershed flow regimes throughout the western United States, specifically focusing on evaluation of fire events within specified subregions and determination of the impact of climate and geophysical variables in post-fire flow response. Fire events were collected through federal and state-level databases and streamflow data were collected from U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. 263 watersheds were identified with at least 10 years of continuous pre-fire daily streamflow records and 5 years of continuous post-fire daily flow records. For each watershed, percent changes in runoff ratio (RO), annual seven day low-flows (7Q2) and annual seven day high-flows (7Q10) were calculated from pre- to post-fire. Numerous independent variables were identified for each watershed and fire event, including topographic, land cover, climate, burn severity, and soils data. The national watersheds were divided into five regions through K-clustering and a lasso linear regression model, applying the Leave-One-Out calibration method, was calculated for each region. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) was used to determine the accuracy of the resulting models. The regions encompassing the United States along and west of the Rocky Mountains, excluding the coastal watersheds, produced the most accurate linear models. The Pacific coast region models produced poor and inconsistent results, indicating that the regions need to be further subdivided. Presently, RO and HF response variables appear to be more easily modeled than LF. Results of linear regression modeling showed varying importance of watershed and fire event variables, with conflicting correlation between land cover types and soil types by region. The addition of further independent variables and constriction of current variables based on correlation indicators is ongoing and should allow for more accurate linear regression modeling.

  4. The Development of Midlatitude Cirrus Models for MODIS Using FIRE-I, FIRE-II, and ARM In Situ Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nasiri, Shaima L.; Baum, Bryan A.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Yang, Ping; Poellot, Michael R.; Kratz, David P.; Hu, Yong-Xiang

    2002-01-01

    Detailed in situ data from cirrus clouds have been collected during dedicated field Campaigns, but the use of the size and habit distribution data has been lagging in the development of more realistic cirrus scattering models. In this study, the authors examine the use of in situ cirrus data collected during three field campaigns to develop more realistic midlatitude cirrus microphysical models. Data are used from the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)-I (1986) and FIRE-II (1991) campaigns and from a recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program campaign held in March-April of 2000. The microphysical models are based on measured vertical distributions of both particle size and particle habit and are used to develop new scattering models for a suite of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) bands spanning visible. near-infrared, and infrared wavelengths. The sensitivity of the resulting scattering properties to the underlying assumptions of the assumed particle size and habit distributions are examined. It is found that the near-infrared bands are sensitive not only to the discretization of the size distribution but also to the assumed habit distribution. In addition. the results indicate that the effective diameter calculated from a given size distribution tends to be sensitive to the number of size bins that are used to discretize the data and also to the ice-crystal habit distribution.

  5. A biological plausible Generalized Leaky Integrate-and-Fire neuron model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhenzhong; Guo, Lilin; Adjouadi, Malek

    2014-01-01

    This study introduces a new Generalized Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (GLIF) neuron model. Unlike Normal Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (NLIF) models, the leaking resistor in the GLIF model equation is assumed to be variable, and an additional term would have the bias current added to the model equation in order to improve the accuracy. Adjusting the parameters defined for the leaking resistor and bias current, a GLIF model could be accurately matched to any Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) model and be able to reproduce plausible biological neuron behaviors. PMID:25571560

  6. Fire in a Changing Climate: Stochastic versus Threshold-constrained Ignitions in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheehan, T.; Bachelet, D. M.; Ferschweiler, K.

    2015-12-01

    The MC2 dynamic global vegetation model fire module simulates fire occurrence, area burned, and fire impacts including mortality, biomass burned, and nitrogen volatilization. Fire occurrence is based on fuel load levels and vegetation-specific thresholds for three calculated fire weather indices: fine fuel moisture code (FFMC) for the moisture content of fine fuels; build-up index (BUI) for the total amount of fuel available for combustion; and energy release component (ERC) for the total energy available to fire. Ignitions are assumed (i.e. the probability of an ignition source is 1). The model is run with gridded inputs and the fraction of each grid cell burned is limited by a vegetation-specific fire return period (FRP) and the number of years since the last fire occurred in the grid cell. One consequence of assumed ignitions FRP constraint is that similar fire behavior can take place over large areas with identical vegetation type. In regions where thresholds are often exceeded, fires occur frequently (annually in some instances) with a very low fraction of a cell burned. In areas where fire is infrequent, a single hot, dry climate event can result in intense fire over a large region. Both cases can potentially result in large areas with uniform vegetation type and age. To better reflect realistic fire occurrence, we have developed a stochastic fire occurrence model that: a) uses a map of relative ignition probability and a multiplier to alter overall ignition occurrence; b) adjusts the original fixed fire thresholds with ignition success probabilities based on fire weather indices; and c) calculates spread by using a probability based on slope and wind direction. A Monte Carlo method is used with all three algorithms to determine occurrence. The new stochastic ignition approach yields more variety in fire intensity, a smaller annual total of cells burned, and patchier vegetation.

  7. Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

    PubMed

    Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

    2012-12-01

    Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

  8. Development of the GEM-MACH-FireWork System: An Air Quality Model with On-line Wildfire Emissions within the Canadian Operational Air Quality Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlovic, Radenko; Chen, Jack; Beaulieu, Paul-Andre; Anselmp, David; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Mike; Menard, Sylvain; Davignon, Didier

    2014-05-01

    A wildfire emissions processing system has been developed to incorporate near-real-time emissions from wildfires and large prescribed burns into Environment Canada's real-time GEM-MACH air quality (AQ) forecast system. Since the GEM-MACH forecast domain covers Canada and most of the U.S.A., including Alaska, fire location information is needed for both of these large countries. During AQ model runs, emissions from individual fire sources are injected into elevated model layers based on plume-rise calculations and then transport and chemistry calculations are performed. This "on the fly" approach to the insertion of the fire emissions provides flexibility and efficiency since on-line meteorology is used and computational overhead in emissions pre-processing is reduced. GEM-MACH-FireWork, an experimental wildfire version of GEM-MACH, was run in real-time mode for the summers of 2012 and 2013 in parallel with the normal operational version. 48-hour forecasts were generated every 12 hours (at 00 and 12 UTC). Noticeable improvements in the AQ forecasts for PM2.5 were seen in numerous regions where fire activity was high. Case studies evaluating model performance for specific regions and computed objective scores will be included in this presentation. Using the lessons learned from the last two summers, Environment Canada will continue to work towards the goal of incorporating near-real-time intermittent wildfire emissions into the operational air quality forecast system.

  9. Computer Modeling of a Fusion Plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, B I

    2000-12-15

    Progress in the study of plasma physics and controlled fusion has been profoundly influenced by dramatic increases in computing capability. Computational plasma physics has become an equal partner with experiment and traditional theory. This presentation illustrates some of the progress in computer modeling of plasma physics and controlled fusion.

  10. Model of computation for Fourier optical processors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naughton, Thomas J.

    2000-05-01

    We present a novel and simple theoretical model of computation that captures what we believe are the most important characteristics of an optical Fourier transform processor. We use this abstract model to reason about the computational properties of the physical systems it describes. We define a grammar for our model's instruction language, and use it to write algorithms for well-known filtering and correlation techniques. We also suggest suitable computational complexity measures that could be used to analyze any coherent optical information processing technique, described with the language, for efficiency. Our choice of instruction language allows us to argue that algorithms describable with this model should have optical implementations that do not require a digital electronic computer to act as a master unit. Through simulation of a well known model of computation from computer theory we investigate the general-purpose capabilities of analog optical processors.

  11. Post-fire hydrologic model assessment for peak flow estimates across diverse watersheds and climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hale, B.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Hogue, T. S.; Napper, C.

    2011-12-01

    Wildfires alter land surfaces and land-atmosphere interactions, enhancing hydrologic responses such as flooding and debris flows. Accurate prediction of post-fire events is important for efficient mitigation. The US Forest Service (USFS) Burn Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams are required to estimate post-fire runoff and sediment fluxes in areas that have values at risk or threaten human life and natural resources. The purpose of this study is to provide specialists and policy makers with guidance on tools to assist in post-fire hydrologic monitoring and management. A survey of post-fire hydrologic model usage by the USFS reveals inconsistency in model parameter attainment, model usage, and awareness of alternative modeling practices. To address the USFS needs for quick and accurate model predictions, an assessment of current modeling systems (USGS Regression, TR-55, HEC-HMS, Wildcat5, etc.), parameters (inputs and outputs), and regional application under pre- and post-fire scenarios is undertaken. This suite of models is then applied to a diverse set of sites affected by wildfire in the western United States to estimate peak flow events (pre- and post-fire). Results show inconsistency between model predictions for peak flow events at each site, with less confidence in the larger return periods (25- and 50-year peak flow events). Pre-fire, models developed and fine-tuned specifically for a region produce similar results to observed flows, however models are not readily transferable to different regions. More complex models are time and parameter intensive but often do not produce more confident results. Peak flow in all models is highly sensitive to model parameters and currently, a strict protocol for gathering parameters and running models does not exist. To validate study models, several post-fire sites (southern and northern California, Colorado, and Montana) have been instrumented and are being used to monitor in situ hydrologic variables such as discharge

  12. Reliability models for dataflow computer systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kavi, K. M.; Buckles, B. P.

    1985-01-01

    The demands for concurrent operation within a computer system and the representation of parallelism in programming languages have yielded a new form of program representation known as data flow (DENN 74, DENN 75, TREL 82a). A new model based on data flow principles for parallel computations and parallel computer systems is presented. Necessary conditions for liveness and deadlock freeness in data flow graphs are derived. The data flow graph is used as a model to represent asynchronous concurrent computer architectures including data flow computers.

  13. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    Understanding the potential health risks posed by environmental chemicals is a significant challenge elevated by the large number of diverse chemicals with generally uncharacterized exposures, mechanisms, and toxicities. The ToxCast computational toxicology research program was l...

  14. A model nursing computer resource center.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Sheryl S; Pullen, Richard L; McGee, K Sue

    2002-01-01

    Nursing graduates are required to demonstrate computer technology skills and critical reflective thinking skills in the workplace. The authors discuss a model computer resource center that enhances the acquisition of these requisite skills by students in both an associate degree and vocational nursing program. The computer resource center maximizes student learning and promotes faculty effectiveness and efficiency by a "full-service" approach to computerized testing, information technology instruction, online research, and interactive computer program practice. PMID:12023644

  15. Computational modeling of vascular anastomoses.

    PubMed

    Migliavacca, Francesco; Dubini, Gabriele

    2005-06-01

    Recent development of computational technology allows a level of knowledge of biomechanical factors in the healthy or pathological cardiovascular system that was unthinkable a few years ago. In particular, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structural (CS) analyses have been used to evaluate specific quantities, such as fluid and wall stresses and strains, which are very difficult to measure in vivo. Indeed, CFD and CS offer much more variability and resolution than in vitro and in vivo methods, yet computations must be validated by careful comparison with experimental and clinical data. The enormous parallel development of clinical imaging such as magnetic resonance or computed tomography opens a new way toward a detailed patient-specific description of the actual hemodynamics and structural behavior of living tissues. Coupling of CFD/CS and clinical images is becoming a standard evaluation that is expected to become part of the clinical practice in the diagnosis and in the surgical planning in advanced medical centers. This review focuses on computational studies of fluid and structural dynamics of a number of vascular anastomoses: the coronary bypass graft anastomoses, the arterial peripheral anastomoses, the arterio-venous graft anastomoses and the vascular anastomoses performed in the correction of congenital heart diseases. PMID:15772842

  16. REFINING FIRE EMISSIONS FOR AIR QUALITY MODELING WITH REMOTELY-SENSED FIRE COUNTS: A WILDFIRE CASE STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper examines the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed active fire data (pixel counts) to refine the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) fire emission estimates for major wildfire events. This study was motivated by the extremely limited info...

  17. A multi-scale conceptual model of fire and disease interactions in North American forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varner, J. M.; Kreye, J. K.; Sherriff, R.; Metz, M.

    2013-12-01

    One aspect of global change with increasing attention is the interactions between irruptive pests and diseases and wildland fire behavior and effects. These pests and diseases affect fire behavior and effects in spatially and temporally complex ways. Models of fire and pathogen interactions have been constructed for individual pests or diseases, but to date, no synthesis of this complexity has been attempted. Here we synthesize North American fire-pathogen interactions into syndromes with similarities in spatial extent and temporal duration. We base our models on fire interactions with three examples: sudden oak death (caused by the pathogen Phytopthora ramorum) and the native tree tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus); mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and western Pinus spp.; and hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) on Tsuga spp. We evaluate each across spatial (severity of attack from branch to landscape scale) and temporal scales (from attack to decades after) and link each change to its coincident effects on fuels and potential fire behavior. These syndromes differ in their spatial and temporal severity, differentially affecting windows of increased or decreased community flammability. We evaluate these models with two examples: the recently emergent ambrosia beetle-vectored laurel wilt (caused by the pathogen Raffaelea lauricola) in native members of the Lauraceae and the early 20th century chestnut blight (caused by the pathogen Cryphonectria parasitica) that led to the decline of American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Some changes (e.g., reduced foliar moisture content) have short-term consequences for potential fire behavior while others (functional extirpation) have more complex indirect effects on community flammability. As non-native emergent diseases and pests continue, synthetic models that aid in prediction of fire behavior and effects will enable the research and management community to prioritize mitigation efforts to realized effects.

  18. Mapping and Analysis of Forest and Land Fire Potential Using Geospatial Technology and Mathematical Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suliman, M. D. H.; Mahmud, M.; Reba, M. N. M.; S, L. W.

    2014-02-01

    Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue

  19. Using modeling and rehearsal to teach fire safety to children with autism.

    PubMed

    Garcia, David; Dukes, Charles; Brady, Michael P; Scott, Jack; Wilson, Cynthia L

    2016-09-01

    We evaluated the efficacy of an instructional procedure to teach young children with autism to evacuate settings and notify an adult during a fire alarm. A multiple baseline design across children showed that an intervention that included modeling, rehearsal, and praise was effective in teaching fire safety skills. Safety skills generalized to novel settings and maintained during a 5-week follow-up in both training and generalization settings.

  20. Modeling the Effects of Fire Frequency and Severity on Forests in the Northwestern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Busing, Richard T.; Solomon, Allen M.

    2006-01-01

    This study used a model of forest dynamics (FORCLIM) and actual forest survey data to demonstrate the effects of various fire regimes on different forest types in the Pacific Northwest. We examined forests in eight ecoregions ranging from wet coastal forests dominated by Pseudotsuga menziesii and other tall conifers to dry interior forests dominated by Pinus ponderosa. Fire effects simulated as elevated mortality of trees based on their species and size did alter forest structure and species composition. Low frequency fires characteristic of wetter forests (return interval >200 yr) had minor effects on composition. When fires were severe, they tended to reduce total basal area with little regard to species differences. High frequency fires characteristic of drier forests (return interval <30 yr) had major effects on species composition and on total basal area. Typically, they caused substantial reductions in total basal area and shifts in dominance toward highly fire tolerant species. With the addition of fire, simulated basal areas averaged across ecoregions were reduced to levels approximating observed basal areas.

  1. Climate Modeling using High-Performance Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Mirin, A A

    2007-02-05

    The Center for Applied Scientific Computing (CASC) and the LLNL Climate and Carbon Science Group of Energy and Environment (E and E) are working together to improve predictions of future climate by applying the best available computational methods and computer resources to this problem. Over the last decade, researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have developed a number of climate models that provide state-of-the-art simulations on a wide variety of massively parallel computers. We are now developing and applying a second generation of high-performance climate models. Through the addition of relevant physical processes, we are developing an earth systems modeling capability as well.

  2. "Computational Modeling of Actinide Complexes"

    SciTech Connect

    Balasubramanian, K

    2007-03-07

    We will present our recent studies on computational actinide chemistry of complexes which are not only interesting from the standpoint of actinide coordination chemistry but also of relevance to environmental management of high-level nuclear wastes. We will be discussing our recent collaborative efforts with Professor Heino Nitsche of LBNL whose research group has been actively carrying out experimental studies on these species. Computations of actinide complexes are also quintessential to our understanding of the complexes found in geochemical, biochemical environments and actinide chemistry relevant to advanced nuclear systems. In particular we have been studying uranyl, plutonyl, and Cm(III) complexes are in aqueous solution. These studies are made with a variety of relativistic methods such as coupled cluster methods, DFT, and complete active space multi-configuration self-consistent-field (CASSCF) followed by large-scale CI computations and relativistic CI (RCI) computations up to 60 million configurations. Our computational studies on actinide complexes were motivated by ongoing EXAFS studies of speciated complexes in geo and biochemical environments carried out by Prof Heino Nitsche's group at Berkeley, Dr. David Clark at Los Alamos and Dr. Gibson's work on small actinide molecules at ORNL. The hydrolysis reactions of urnayl, neputyl and plutonyl complexes have received considerable attention due to their geochemical and biochemical importance but the results of free energies in solution and the mechanism of deprotonation have been topic of considerable uncertainty. We have computed deprotonating and migration of one water molecule from the first solvation shell to the second shell in UO{sub 2}(H{sub 2}O){sub 5}{sup 2+}, UO{sub 2}(H{sub 2}O){sub 5}{sup 2+}NpO{sub 2}(H{sub 2}O){sub 6}{sup +}, and PuO{sub 2}(H{sub 2}O){sub 5}{sup 2+} complexes. Our computed Gibbs free energy(7.27 kcal/m) in solution for the first time agrees with the experiment (7.1 kcal

  3. Synthetic computational models of selective attention.

    PubMed

    Raffone, Antonino

    2006-11-01

    Computational modeling plays an important role to understand the mechanisms of attention. In this framework, synthetic computational models can uniquely contribute to integrate different explanatory levels and neurocognitive findings, with special reference to the integration of attention and awareness processes. Novel combined experimental and computational investigations can lead to important insights, as in the revived domain of neural correlates of attention- and awareness-related meditation states and traits.

  4. Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

    2008-01-01

    Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire

  5. Using fire tests for quantitative risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ling, W.C.T.; Williamson, R.B.

    1980-03-01

    Fires can be considered a causal chain-of-events in which the growth and spread of fire may cause damage and injury if it is rapid enough to overcome the barriers placed in its way. Fire tests for fire resistance of the barriers can be used in a quantitative risk assessment. The fire growth and spread is modelled in a State Transition Model (STM). The fire barriers are presented as part of the Fire Protection Model (FPM) which is based on a portion of the NFPA Decision Tree. An Emergency Equivalent Network is introduced to couple the Fire Growth Model (FGM) and the FPM so that the spread of fire beyond the room-of-origin can be computed. An example is presented in which a specific building floor plan is analyzed to obtain the shortest expected time for fire to spread between two points. To obtain the probability and time for each link in the network, data from the results of fire tests were used. These results were found to be lacking and new standards giving better data are advocated.

  6. Model gives a 3-month warning of Amazonian forest fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-08-01

    The widespread drought suffered by the Amazon rain forest in the summer of 2005 was heralded at the time as the drought of the century. Because of the dehydrated conditions, supplemented by slash and burn agricultural practices, the drought led to widespread forest fires throughout the western Amazon, a portion of the rain forest usually too lush to support spreading wildfires. Only 5 years later, the 2005 season was outdone by even more widespread drought, with fires decimating more than 3000 square kilometers of western Amazonian rain forest. Blame for the wildfires has been consistently laid on deforestation and agricultural practices, but a convincing climatological explanation exists as well. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047392, 2011)

  7. COLD-SAT Dynamic Model Computer Code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bollenbacher, G.; Adams, N. S.

    1995-01-01

    COLD-SAT Dynamic Model (CSDM) computer code implements six-degree-of-freedom, rigid-body mathematical model for simulation of spacecraft in orbit around Earth. Investigates flow dynamics and thermodynamics of subcritical cryogenic fluids in microgravity. Consists of three parts: translation model, rotation model, and slosh model. Written in FORTRAN 77.

  8. Applications of computer modeling to fusion research

    SciTech Connect

    Dawson, J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Progress achieved during this report period is presented on the following topics: Development and application of gyrokinetic particle codes to tokamak transport, development of techniques to take advantage of parallel computers; model dynamo and bootstrap current drive; and in general maintain our broad-based program in basic plasma physics and computer modeling.

  9. High heat program, thermal hydraulic computer models

    SciTech Connect

    Ogden, D.M.

    1998-03-05

    The purpose of this report is to describe the thermal hydraulic computer models, the computer model benchmarking and methodology to be used in performing the analysis necessary for the resolution of the high heat safety issue for Tank 241-C, -106.

  10. Leverage points in a computer model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janošek, Michal

    2016-06-01

    This article is focused on the analysis of the leverage points (developed by D. Meadows) in a computer model. The goal is to find out if there is a possibility to find these points of leverage in a computer model (on the example of a predator-prey model) and to determine how the particular parameters, their ranges and monitored variables of the model are associated with the concept of leverage points.

  11. LiDAR improves fire behaviour predictions using a biophysical, mechanistic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zylstra, Philip; Horsey, Bronwyn; Yebra, Marta; Marselis, Suzanne

    2016-04-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to address the utility of LiDAR as a tool for measuring fuel inputs to fire behaviour models, however the direct effect of this approach on fire behaviour prediction requires quantification. We used a biophysical, mechanistic model validated for eucalypt forest in SE Australia to assess the improvement in prediction accuracy afforded using LiDAR-derived inputs. The accuracy of modelling with these inputs was compared to modelling using detailed site-specific field surveys of a dry sclerophyll forest to represent the highest standard of inputs, and values derived from desktop-available community-wide descriptors to represent baseline inputs. Use of LiDAR significantly improved on baseline predictions and enabled site-specific decision making across the study area. When used with an appropriate model, LiDAR can facilitate improved decision-making in regard to forest fire behaviour.

  12. High resolution fire danger modeling : integration of quantitative precipitation amount estimates derived from weather radars as an input of FWI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloppet, E.; Regimbeau, M.

    2009-09-01

    Fire meteo indices provide efficient guidance tools for the prevention, early warning and surveillance of forest fires. The indices are based on meteorological input data. The underlying approach is to exploit meteorological information as fully as possible to model the soil water content, biomass condition and fire danger. Fire meteorological danger is estimated by Météo-France at national level through the use of Fire Weather Index. The fire index services developed within the PREVIEW project (2005-2008) offer for the first time very high resolution mapping of forest fire risk. The high resolution FWI has been implemented in France complementary to the existing EFFIS operated by the Joint Research Center. A new method (ANTILOPE method) of combining precipitation data originating from different sources like rain gauges and weather radar measurements has been applied in the new service. Some of the advantages of this new service are: · Improved detection of local features of fire risk · More accurate analysis of meteorological input data used in forest fire index models providing added value for forest fire risk forecasts · Use of radar precipitation data "as is” utilizing the higher resolution, i.e. avoiding averaging operations The improved accuracy and spatial resolution of the indices provide a powerful early warning tool for national and regional civil protection and fire fighting authorities to alert and initiate forest fire fighting actions and measures.

  13. Characterization of smoke plume emissions and dynamics from prescribed and wildland fires using high-resolution field observations and a coupled fire-atmosphere model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yedinak, Kara M.

    Smoke plumes associated with wildland fires are difficult to characterize due to the non-linear behavior of the variables involved. Plume chemistry is largely modeled using emission factors to represent the relative trace gas and aerosol species emitted. Plume dynamics are modeled based on assumptions of plume vertical distribution and atmospheric dispersion. In the studies presented here, near and in-source measurements of emissions from prescribed burns are used to characterize the variability of emission factors from low-intensity fires. Emissions factors were found to be in the same range as those from other, similar studies in the literature and it appears that the emission factors may be sensitive to small differences in surface conditions such as fuel moisture, surface wind speed, and the ratio of live to dead fuels. We also used two coupled fire atmosphere models, which utilize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model called WRF-Fire and WRF-Sfire, to investigate the role that atmospheric stability plays in influencing plume rise as well as developing a technique for assessing plume rise and the vertical distribution of pollutants in regional air quality models. Plume heights, as well as rate of growth of the fire, were found to be sensitive to atmospheric stability while fire rate of spread was not. The plume center-of-mass technique was demonstrated to work well but has slightly low estimates compared to observations.

  14. Tree cover bistability in the MPI Earth system model due to fire-vegetation feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lasslop, Gitta; Brovkin, Victor; Kloster, Silvia; Reick, Christian

    2015-04-01

    The global distribution of tree cover is mainly limited by precipitation and temperature. Within tropical ecosystems different tree cover values have been observed in regions with similar climate. Satellite data even revealed a lack of ecosystems with tree coverage around 60% and dominant tree covers of 20% and 80%. Conceptual models have been used to explain this tree cover distribution and base it on a bistability in tree cover caused by fire-vegetation interactions or competition between trees and grasses. Some ecological models also show this property of multiple stable tree covers, but it remains unclear which mechanism is the cause for this behaviour. Vegetation models used in climate simulations usually use simple approaches and were criticised to neglect such ecological theories and misrepresent tropical tree cover distribution and dynamics. Here we show that including the process based fire model SPITFIRE generated a bistability in tree cover in the land surface model JSBACH. Previous model versions showed only one stable tree cover state. Using a conceptual model we can show that a bistability can occur due to a feedback between grasses and fire. Grasses and trees are represented in the model based on plant functional types. With respect to fire the main difference between grasses and trees is the fuel characteristics. Grass fuels are smaller in size, and have a higher surface area to volume ratio. These grass fuels dry faster increasing their flammability which leads to a higher fire rate of spread. Trees are characterized by coarse fuels, which are less likely to ignite and rather suppress fire. Therefore a higher fraction of grasses promotes fire, fire kills trees and following a fire, grasses establish faster. This feedback can stabilize ecosystems with low tree cover in a low tree cover state and systems with high tree cover in a high tree cover state. In previous model versions this feedback was absent. Based on the new JSBACH model driven with

  15. Model Railroading and Computer Fundamentals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, John W.

    2007-01-01

    Less than one half of one percent of all processors manufactured today end up in computers. The rest are embedded in other devices such as automobiles, airplanes, trains, satellites, and nearly every modern electronic device. Developing software for embedded systems requires a greater knowledge of hardware than developing for a typical desktop…

  16. Development of custom fire behavior fuel models from FCCS fuelbeds for the Savannah River fuel assessment project.

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Joe, H.

    2009-07-23

    The purpose of this project is to create fire behavior fuel models that replicate the fire behavior characteristics (spread rate and fireline intensity) produced by 23 candidate FCCS fuelbeds developed for the Savannah River National Wildlife Refuge. These 23 fuelbeds were created by FERA staff in consultation with local fuel managers. The FCCS produces simulations of surface fire spread rate and flame length (and therefore fireline intensity) for each of these fuelbeds, but it does not produce maps of those fire behavior characteristics or simulate fire growth—those tasks currently require the use of the FARSITE and/or FlamMap software systems. FARSITE and FlamMap do not directly use FCCS fuelbeds, but instead use standard or custom fire behavior fuel models to describe surface fuel characteristics for fire modeling. Therefore, replicating fire growth and fire behavior potential calculations using FCCS-simulated fire characteristics requires the development of custom fuel models that mimic, as closely as possible, the fire behavior characteristics produced by the FCCS for each fuelbed, over a range of fuel moisture and wind speeds.

  17. Electrical coupling between model midbrain dopamine neurons: effects on firing pattern and synchrony.

    PubMed

    Komendantov, Alexander O; Canavier, Carmen C

    2002-03-01

    The role of gap junctions between midbrain dopamine (DA) neurons in mechanisms of firing pattern generation and synchronization has not been well characterized experimentally. We modified a multi-compartment model of DA neuron by adding a spike-generating mechanism and electrically coupling the dendrites of two such neurons through gap junctions. The burst-generating mechanism in the model neuron results from the interaction of a N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA)-induced current and the sodium pump. The firing patterns exhibited by the two model neurons included low frequency (2-7 Hz) spiking, high-frequency (13-20 Hz) spiking, irregular spiking, regular bursting, irregular bursting, and leader/follower bursting, depending on the parameter values used for the permeability for NMDA-induced current and the conductance for electrical coupling. All of these firing patterns have been observed in physiological neurons, but a systematic dependence of the firing pattern on the covariation of these two parameters has not been established experimentally. Our simulations indicate that electrical coupling facilitates NMDA-induced burst firing via two mechanisms. The first can be observed in a pair of identical cells. At low frequencies (low NMDA), as coupling strength was increased, only a transition from asynchronous to synchronous single-spike firing was observed. At high frequencies (high NMDA), increasing the strength of the electrical coupling in an identical pair resulted in a transition from high-frequency single-spike firing to burst firing, and further increases led to synchronous high-frequency spiking. Weak electrical coupling destabilizes the synchronous solution of the fast spiking subsystems, and in the presence of a slowly varying sodium concentration, the desynchronized spiking solution leads to bursts that are approximately in phase with spikes that are not in phase. Thus this transitional mechanism depends critically on action potential dynamics. The second

  18. CAPE-OPEN compliant stochastic modeling and reduced-order model computation capability for APECS system

    SciTech Connect

    Diwekar, Urmila; Shastri, Yogendra (Vishwamitra Research Institute Clarendon Hills, IL); Subrmanyan, Karthik; Zitney, S.E.

    2007-11-04

    APECS (Advanced Process Engineering Co-Simulator) is an integrated software suite that combines the power of process simulation with high-fidelity, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for improved design, analysis, and optimization of process engineering systems. The APECS system uses commercial process simulation (e.g., Aspen Plus) and CFD (e.g., FLUENT) software integrated with the process-industry standard CAPE-OPEN (CO) interfaces. This breakthrough capability allows engineers to better understand and optimize the fluid mechanics that drive overall power plant performance and efficiency. The focus of this paper is the CAPE-OPEN complaint stochastic modeling and reduced order model computational capability around the APECS system. The usefulness of capabilities is illustrated with coal fired, gasification based, FutureGen power plant simulation. These capabilities are used to generate efficient reduced order models and optimizing model complexities.

  19. Modeling Particulate Matter Plumes from 2007 California Wildland Fires Using a Coupled Emissions-Transport System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koziol, B. W.; Owen, R. C.; Erickson, T. A.; French, N. H.

    2010-12-01

    Transport of particulate matter (PM) emissions from 2007 wildland fires in San Diego County were modeled using the HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT model). Fire PM sources (2.5 and 10) were estimated using a statistical, empirically-based fuel consumption and emission model (CONSUME) parameterized using weather data and fuel loadings from the Fuel Characteristics Classification System (FCCS). Using vectorized temporal burn perimeters derived from geostatistical interpolation of fire progression remote sensing images and local physiographic indicators, CONSUME emissions outputs were generated for the daily burned area and entered into HYSPLIT for the transport component. Total daily PM fire emissions were equally distributed over a 24-hour time period. Emissions are then transported in the model for three days. This poster describes the modeling system and reports on calibration and validation methods as well as results for the 2007 PM concentration time series. We evaluate the effectiveness of HYSPLIT’s fully 3-D particle plume scheme and its combined Gaussian-horizontal puff and vertical particle plume scheme. The primary source of calibration data are atmospheric monitoring stations located in the San Diego region. Also detailed are effects of fuel model spatial resolution (30-meter and 1-kilometer fuel beds modeled as separate CONSUME/HYSPLIT scenarios) and influential CONSUME parameters on modeled HYSPLIT concentrations at receptor locations. In addition, potential methods to identify the PM “signal” associated with fire v. anthropogenic emissions are discussed. These methods involve time series comparisons of modeled and in situ PM data in association with HYSPLIT-modeled anthropogenic PM source inventories. PM concentrations estimates from this coupled transport system will be used in a larger project assessing acute respiratory health impacts of fire-emitted pollutants in San Diego County.

  20. Computational modeling of peripheral pain: a commentary.

    PubMed

    Argüello, Erick J; Silva, Ricardo J; Huerta, Mónica K; Avila, René S

    2015-06-11

    This commentary is intended to find possible explanations for the low impact of computational modeling on pain research. We discuss the main strategies that have been used in building computational models for the study of pain. The analysis suggests that traditional models lack biological plausibility at some levels, they do not provide clinically relevant results, and they cannot capture the stochastic character of neural dynamics. On this basis, we provide some suggestions that may be useful in building computational models of pain with a wider range of applications.

  1. Computational modeling of peripheral pain: a commentary.

    PubMed

    Argüello, Erick J; Silva, Ricardo J; Huerta, Mónica K; Avila, René S

    2015-01-01

    This commentary is intended to find possible explanations for the low impact of computational modeling on pain research. We discuss the main strategies that have been used in building computational models for the study of pain. The analysis suggests that traditional models lack biological plausibility at some levels, they do not provide clinically relevant results, and they cannot capture the stochastic character of neural dynamics. On this basis, we provide some suggestions that may be useful in building computational models of pain with a wider range of applications. PMID:26062616

  2. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  3. Hybrid modeling in computational neuropsychiatry.

    PubMed

    Marin-Sanguino, A; Mendoza, E R

    2008-09-01

    The aim of building mathematical models is to provide a formal structure to explain the behaviour of a whole in terms of its parts. In the particular case of neuropsychiatry, the available information upon which models are to be built is distributed over several fields of expertise. Molecular and cellular biologists, physiologists and clinicians all hold valuable information about the system which has to be distilled into a unified view. Furthermore, modelling is not a sequential process in which the roles of field and modelling experts are separated. Model building is done through iterations in which all the parts have to keep an active role. This work presents some modelling techniques and guidelines on how they can be combined in order to simplify modelling efforts in neuropsychiatry. The proposed approach involves two well known modelling techniques, Petri nets and Biochemical System Theory that provide a general well proven structured definition for biological models.

  4. Exploring Early Angiosperm Fire Feedbacks using Coupled Experiments and Modelling Approaches to Estimate Cretaceous Palaeofire Behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belcher, Claire; Hudpsith, Victoria

    2016-04-01

    Using the fossil record we are typically limited to exploring linkages between palaeoecological changes and palaeofire activity by assessing the abundance of charcoals preserved in sediments. However, it is the behaviour of fires that primarily governs their ecological effects. Therefore, the ability to estimate variations in aspects of palaeofire behaviour such as palaeofire intensity and rate of spread would be of key benefit toward understanding the coupled evolutionary history of ecosystems and fire. The Cretaceous Period saw major diversification in land plants. Previously, conifers (gymnosperms) and ferns (pteridophytes) dominated Earth's ecosystems until flowering plants (angiosperms) appear in the fossil record of the Early Cretaceous (~135Ma). We have created surface fire behaviour estimates for a variety of angiosperm invasion scenarios and explored the influence of Cretaceous superambient atmospheric oxygen levels on the fire behaviour occurring in these new Cretaceous ecosystems. These estimates are then used to explore the hypothesis that the early spread of the angiosperms was promoted by the novel fire regimes that they created. In order to achieve this we tested the flammability of Mesozoic analogue fuel types in controlled laboratory experiments using an iCone calorimeter, which measured the ignitability as well as the effective heat of combustion of the fuels. We then used the BehavePlus fire behaviour modelling system to scale up our laboratory results to the ecosystem scale. Our results suggest that fire-angiosperm feedbacks may have occurred in two phases: The first phase being a result of weedy angiosperms providing an additional easily ignitable fuel that enhanced both the seasonality and frequency of surface fires. In the second phase, the addition of shrubby understory fuels likely expanded the number of ecosystems experiencing more intense surface fires, resulting in enhanced mortality and suppressed post-fire recruitment of gymnosperms

  5. [Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].

    PubMed

    Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng

    2014-04-01

    Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains. PMID:25011305

  6. [Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].

    PubMed

    Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng

    2014-04-01

    Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains.

  7. ESA Fire CCI product assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heil, Angelika; Yue, Chao; Mouillot, Florent; Storm, Thomas; Chuvieco, Emilio; Kaiser, Johannes

    2016-04-01

    Vegetation fires are a major disturbance in the Earth System. Fires change the biophysical properties and dynamics of ecosystems and alter terrestrial carbon pools. By altering the atmosphere's composition, fire emissions exert a significant climate forcing. To realistically model past and future changes of the Earth System, fire disturbances must be taken into account. Related modelling efforts require consistent global burned area observations covering at least 10 to 20 years. Guided by the specific requirements of a wide range of end users, the ESA fire_cci project is currently computing a new global burned area dataset. It applies a newly developed spectral change detection algorithm upon the full ENVISAT-MERIS archive (2002 to 2012). The algorithm relies on MODIS active fire information as "seed". A first, formally validated version has been released for the period 2006 to 2008. It comprises a pixel burned area product (spatial resolution of 333 m) with date detection information and a biweekly grid product at 0.5 degree spatial resolution. We compare fire_cci burned area with other global burned area products (MCD64, GFED4(s), GEOLAND) and a set of active fires data (hotspots from MODIS, TRMM, AATSR and fire radiative power from GFAS). Output from the ongoing processing of the full MERIS timeseries will be incorporated into the study, as far as available. The analysis of patterns of agreement and disagreement between fire_cci and other products provides a better understanding of product characteristics and uncertainties. The intercomparison of the 2006-2008 fire_cci time series shows a close agreement with GFED4 data in terms of global burned area and the general spatial and temporal patterns. Pronounced differences, however, emerge for specific regions or fire events. Burned area mapped by fire_cci tends to be notably higher in regions where small agricultural fires predominate. The improved detection of small agricultural fires by fire_cci can be related to

  8. Modelling and assessment of advanced processes for integrated environmental control of coal-fired power plants. Technical progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Barrett, J.G.; Bloyd, C.N.; McMichael, F.C.; Rubin, E.S.

    1984-07-01

    The key objective of this research is the development of a computer based model for the assessment of integrated environmental control (IEC) systems for conventional and advanced coal fired power plant designs. Efforts during the period April 1-June 30, 1984 focused on, (1) testing of a preliminary integrated model linking pre-combustion and post-combustion control options for conventional plants; (2) documentation of the analytical models of existing control technology options; (3) development and preliminary testing of a second model design for the propagation and analysis of uncertainty; and (4) development of new analytical models needed for IEC assessments. Activities and accomplishments in each of these areas are described. 4 references, 13 figures, 4 tables.

  9. ADVANCED COMPUTATIONAL METHODS IN DOSE MODELING: APPLICATION OF COMPUTATIONAL BIOPHYSICAL TRANSPORT, COMPUTATIONAL CHEMISTRY, AND COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Computational toxicology (CompTox) leverages the significant gains in computing power and computational techniques (e.g., numerical approaches, structure-activity relationships, bioinformatics) realized over the last few years, thereby reducing costs and increasing efficiency i...

  10. Reevaluation of the spring onset/fire association in the western U.S. using Phenological vs. Hydrological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerling, A. L.; Betancourt, J. L.; Schwartz, M. D.

    2007-12-01

    An important aspect of climate variability and change is the exact timing of the transition from winter to spring, generally defined here as spring onset. Spring onset can have important hydrological and ecological consequences, including changes in the timing of snowmelt and snowmelt runoff, in timing of plant and animal phenologies and their interactions, in ecosystem fluxes, and in the probabilities of ecological disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. Spring onset can be variably defined, which can affect its use as a predictor. To evaluate changing fire probabilities in the western U.S., Westerling et al. (2006) used center of mass of annual streamflow (CT, after Stewart et al 2005) for snowmelt-dominated gauge records as a proxy for spring onset, and compared it with the number of forest wildfires greater than 400 ha annually around the western U.S. This study indicated a strong association between large wildfire occurrence across the West and CT, and a particular sensitivity to the timing of snowmelt in the Northern Rockies. Though the timing of snowmelt can affect fire occurrence in several ways, the use of CT as a proxy for spring onset biased the analysis towards higher elevations and latitudes. To skirt this bias, we undertook a similar analysis using Spring Indices (SI) developed from cloned lilac and honeysuckle phenological data and representing seasonally integrated changes in temperature (Schwartz et al. 2006). The SI models can be generated at any location that has daily maximum-minimum temperature time series, and allowed comparison of large fire occurrence in defined regions with a network of select weather stations across the West for which we computed SI. The SI/fire comparison showed strong associations between SI at weather stations, particularly those in the Central Rockies/Colorado Plateau and large fire frequency in the northern, central and southern Rockies, as well as in the Sierra Nevada, but less so in southern California and

  11. Model cerebellar granule cells can faithfully transmit modulated firing rate signals

    PubMed Central

    Rössert, Christian; Solinas, Sergio; D'Angelo, Egidio; Dean, Paul; Porrill, John

    2014-01-01

    A crucial assumption of many high-level system models of the cerebellum is that information in the granular layer is encoded in a linear manner. However, granule cells are known for their non-linear and resonant synaptic and intrinsic properties that could potentially impede linear signal transmission. In this modeling study we analyse how electrophysiological granule cell properties and spike sampling influence information coded by firing rate modulation, assuming no signal-related, i.e., uncorrelated inhibitory feedback (open-loop mode). A detailed one-compartment granule cell model was excited in simulation by either direct current or mossy-fiber synaptic inputs. Vestibular signals were represented as tonic inputs to the flocculus modulated at frequencies up to 20 Hz (approximate upper frequency limit of vestibular-ocular reflex, VOR). Model outputs were assessed using estimates of both the transfer function, and the fidelity of input-signal reconstruction measured as variance-accounted-for. The detailed granule cell model with realistic mossy-fiber synaptic inputs could transmit information faithfully and linearly in the frequency range of the vestibular-ocular reflex. This was achieved most simply if the model neurons had a firing rate at least twice the highest required frequency of modulation, but lower rates were also adequate provided a population of neurons was utilized, especially in combination with push-pull coding. The exact number of neurons required for faithful transmission depended on the precise values of firing rate and noise. The model neurons were also able to combine excitatory and inhibitory signals linearly, and could be replaced by a simpler (modified) integrate-and-fire neuron in the case of high tonic firing rates. These findings suggest that granule cells can in principle code modulated firing-rate inputs in a linear manner, and are thus consistent with the high-level adaptive-filter model of the cerebellar microcircuit. PMID:25352777

  12. Introducing Seismic Tomography with Computational Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neves, R.; Neves, M. L.; Teodoro, V.

    2011-12-01

    Learning seismic tomography principles and techniques involves advanced physical and computational knowledge. In depth learning of such computational skills is a difficult cognitive process that requires a strong background in physics, mathematics and computer programming. The corresponding learning environments and pedagogic methodologies should then involve sets of computational modelling activities with computer software systems which allow students the possibility to improve their mathematical or programming knowledge and simultaneously focus on the learning of seismic wave propagation and inverse theory. To reduce the level of cognitive opacity associated with mathematical or programming knowledge, several computer modelling systems have already been developed (Neves & Teodoro, 2010). Among such systems, Modellus is particularly well suited to achieve this goal because it is a domain general environment for explorative and expressive modelling with the following main advantages: 1) an easy and intuitive creation of mathematical models using just standard mathematical notation; 2) the simultaneous exploration of images, tables, graphs and object animations; 3) the attribution of mathematical properties expressed in the models to animated objects; and finally 4) the computation and display of mathematical quantities obtained from the analysis of images and graphs. Here we describe virtual simulations and educational exercises which enable students an easy grasp of the fundamental of seismic tomography. The simulations make the lecture more interactive and allow students the possibility to overcome their lack of advanced mathematical or programming knowledge and focus on the learning of seismological concepts and processes taking advantage of basic scientific computation methods and tools.

  13. Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy.

    PubMed

    Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures. PMID:25962800

  14. Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

  15. Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy.

    PubMed

    Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

  16. Computational Model for Corneal Transplantation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabrera, Delia

    2003-10-01

    We evaluated the refractive consequences of corneal transplants using a biomechanical model with homogeneous and inhomogeneous Young's modulus distributions within the cornea, taking into account ablation of some stromal tissue. A FEM model was used to simulate corneal transplants in diseased cornea. The diseased cornea was modeled as an axisymmetric structure taking into account a nonlinearly elastic, isotropic formulation. The model simulating the penetrating keratoplasty procedure gives more change in the postoperative corneal curvature when compared to the models simulating the anterior and posterior lamellar graft procedures. When a lenticle shaped tissue was ablated in the graft during the anterior and posterior keratoplasty, the models provided an additional correction of about -3.85 and -4.45 diopters, respectively. Despite the controversy around the corneal thinning disorders treatment with volume removal procedures, results indicate that significant changes in corneal refractive power could be introduced by a corneal transplantation combined with myopic laser ablation.

  17. A kinetic model for human blood concentrations of gaseous halocarbon fire-extinguishing agents.

    PubMed

    Lyon, Richard E; Speitel, Louise C

    2010-12-01

    A simple kinetic model for calculating the blood concentration history of humans exposed to time-varying concentrations of gaseous, halocarbon fire-extinguishing agents is described. The kinetic model was developed to extend experimental physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for arterial blood concentration of halocarbons, obtained from constant concentration exposure of dogs to time-varying exposure conditions for humans. In the present work, the simplified kinetic model was calibrated using published PBPK-derived arterial concentration histories for constant concentration exposure to several common fire-extinguishing agents. The calibrated kinetic model was then used to predict the blood concentration histories of humans exposed to time-varying concentrations of these fire-extinguishing agents in ventilated compartments and the results were compared with PBPK-derived data for the agents. It was found that the properly calibrated kinetic model predicts human arterial blood concentration histories for time-varying exposures as well as the PBPK models. Consequently, the kinetic model represents an economical methodology for calculating safe human exposure limits for time-varying concentrations of gaseous halocarbon fire-extinguishing agents when only PBPK-derived human arterial blood concentration histories for constant exposure conditions are available.

  18. Fire science at LLNL: A review

    SciTech Connect

    Hasegawa, H.K.

    1990-03-01

    This fire sciences report from LLNL includes topics on: fire spread in trailer complexes, properties of welding blankets, validation of sprinkler systems, fire and smoke detectors, fire modeling, and other fire engineering and safety issues. (JEF)

  19. Teaching Environmental Systems Modelling Using Computer Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moffatt, Ian

    1986-01-01

    A computer modeling course in environmental systems and dynamics is presented. The course teaches senior undergraduates to analyze a system of interest, construct a system flow chart, and write computer programs to simulate real world environmental processes. An example is presented along with a course evaluation, figures, tables, and references.…

  20. Modeling communication in cluster computing

    SciTech Connect

    Stoica, I.; Sultan, F.; Keyes, D.

    1995-12-01

    We introduce a model for communication costs in parallel processing environments, called the {open_quotes}hyperbolic model,{close_quotes} that generalizes two-parameter dedicated-link models in an analytically simple way. The communication system is modeled as a directed communication graph in which terminal nodes represent the application processes and internal nodes, called communication blocks (CBs), reflect the layered structure of the underlying communication architecture. A CB is characterized by a two-parameter hyperbolic function of the message size that represents the service time needed for processing the message. Rules are given for reducing a communication graph consisting of many CBs to an equivalent two-parameter form, while maintaining a good approximation for the service time. In [4] we demonstrate a tight fit of the estimates of the cost of communication based on our model with actual measurements of the communication and synchronization time between end processes. We, also show the compatibility of our model (to within a factor of 3/4) with the recently proposed LogP model.

  1. Developing role models for health in the fire service: a pilot case study

    PubMed Central

    Abel, Michelle L; Bailey, Maryanne M; Burnett, Monica; Frutchey, Robin; Goheer, Attia; Ram, Anita; Pollack, Keshia M

    2014-01-01

    Summary Objectives The objectives of this case study were to develop role models for health in the fire service through knowledge and behaviour change, to improve the role models’ own health, and to facilitate behaviour change in other firefighters through their example. Design Volunteers interested in improving their own health and serving as role models to others in the fire service were identified at a statewide Maryland fire service leadership meeting. Setting Participants worked with the Johns Hopkins Weight Management Center to learn how to improve their own health and shared that knowledge with others in their fire departments. Participants Three Maryland fire service leaders were recruited at a leadership meeting with the goal of improving their own health and becoming role models. One participant dropped out shortly after beginning, while two male participants, aged 57 and 61, completed the study. Main outcome measures Quantitative measures were collected at baseline and 12 months, and included weight, blood pressure and fasting glucose and cholesterol. Semi-structured interviews were conducted approximately 14 months postintervention to determine the participants’ perceptions of their own health and impact on others in the fire service. Results Each participant had biweekly to monthly visits over a one-year period to learn the knowledge and skills that would assist him with improving dietary behaviours, increasing fitness and achieving a healthy weight. Case study participants experienced reductions in body weight (−13% and −11% of total body weight), glucose and blood pressure. Qualitative one-on-one interviews conducted postintervention with the participants revealed that they embraced their status as role models and felt their success inspired other firefighters. Their experiences suggest that role models can play an important role in helping firefighters increase self-efficacy, self-regulation and social support in the workplace environment

  2. Computer modeling of human decision making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, William B.

    1991-01-01

    Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.

  3. [Selection of advantage prediction model for forest fire occurrence in Tahe, Daxing'an Mountain].

    PubMed

    Qin, Kai-Lun; Guo, Fu-Tao; Di, Xue-Ying; Sun, Long; Song, Yu-Hui; Wu, Yao; Pan, Jian-Feng

    2014-03-01

    This study chose zero-inflated model and Hurdle model that have been widely used in economic and social fields to model the fire occurrence in Tahe, Daxing'an Mountain. The AIC, LR and SSR were used to compare the models including zero-inflated Poisson model (ZIP), zero-inflated negative binomial model (ZINB), Poisson-Hurdle model (PH) and negative Binomial Hurdle (NBH) (two types, four models in total) so as to determine a better-fit model to predict the local fire occurrence. The results illustrated that ZINB model was superior over the other three models (ZIP, PH and NBH) based on the result of AIC and SSR tests. LR test revealed that the negative binomial distribution was suitable to both the "count" portion of zero-inflated model and hurdle model. Furthermore, this paper concluded that the zero-inflated model could better fit the fire feature of the study area according to the hypotheses of the two types of models.

  4. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  5. Computational modeling of ultraviolet disinfection.

    PubMed

    Younis, B A; Yang, T H

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of ultraviolet light (UV) systems for water and wastewater treatment requires detailed knowledge of the patterns of fluid motion that occur in the disinfection channel. This knowledge is increasingly being obtained using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software packages that solve the equations governing turbulent fluid-flow motion. In this work, we present predictions of the patterns of flow and the extent of disinfection in a conventional reactor consisting of an open channel with an array of UV lamps placed with their axes perpendicular to the direction of flow. It is shown that the resulting flow is inherently unsteady due to the regular shedding of vortices from the submerged lamps. It is also shown that the accurate prediction of the hydraulic residence time and, consequently, the extent of disinfection is strongly dependent on the ability of the CFD method to capture the occurrence and strength of the vortex shedding, and its effects on the turbulent mixing processes.

  6. Applications of Computational Modeling in Cardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Lik Chuan; Genet, Martin; Dang, Alan B.; Ge, Liang; Guccione, Julius M.; Ratcliffe, Mark B.

    2014-01-01

    Although computational modeling is common in many areas of science and engineering, only recently have advances in experimental techniques and medical imaging allowed this tool to be applied in cardiac surgery. Despite its infancy in cardiac surgery, computational modeling has been useful in calculating the effects of clinical devices and surgical procedures. In this review, we present several examples that demonstrate the capabilities of computational cardiac modeling in cardiac surgery. Specifically, we demonstrate its ability to simulate surgery, predict myofiber stress and pump function, and quantify changes to regional myocardial material properties. In addition, issues that would need to be resolved in order for computational modeling to play a greater role in cardiac surgery are discussed. PMID:24708036

  7. A new epidemic model of computer viruses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Lu-Xing; Yang, Xiaofan

    2014-06-01

    This paper addresses the epidemiological modeling of computer viruses. By incorporating the effect of removable storage media, considering the possibility of connecting infected computers to the Internet, and removing the conservative restriction on the total number of computers connected to the Internet, a new epidemic model is proposed. Unlike most previous models, the proposed model has no virus-free equilibrium and has a unique endemic equilibrium. With the aid of the theory of asymptotically autonomous systems as well as the generalized Poincare-Bendixson theorem, the endemic equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable. By analyzing the influence of different system parameters on the steady number of infected computers, a collection of policies is recommended to prohibit the virus prevalence.

  8. Computer Model Buildings Contaminated with Radioactive Material

    1998-05-19

    The RESRAD-BUILD computer code is a pathway analysis model designed to evaluate the potential radiological dose incurred by an individual who works or lives in a building contaminated with radioactive material.

  9. The Computational Properties of a Simplified Cortical Column Model.

    PubMed

    Cain, Nicholas; Iyer, Ramakrishnan; Koch, Christof; Mihalas, Stefan

    2016-09-01

    The mammalian neocortex has a repetitious, laminar structure and performs functions integral to higher cognitive processes, including sensory perception, memory, and coordinated motor output. What computations does this circuitry subserve that link these unique structural elements to their function? Potjans and Diesmann (2014) parameterized a four-layer, two cell type (i.e. excitatory and inhibitory) model of a cortical column with homogeneous populations and cell type dependent connection probabilities. We implement a version of their model using a displacement integro-partial differential equation (DiPDE) population density model. This approach, exact in the limit of large homogeneous populations, provides a fast numerical method to solve equations describing the full probability density distribution of neuronal membrane potentials. It lends itself to quickly analyzing the mean response properties of population-scale firing rate dynamics. We use this strategy to examine the input-output relationship of the Potjans and Diesmann cortical column model to understand its computational properties. When inputs are constrained to jointly and equally target excitatory and inhibitory neurons, we find a large linear regime where the effect of a multi-layer input signal can be reduced to a linear combination of component signals. One of these, a simple subtractive operation, can act as an error signal passed between hierarchical processing stages. PMID:27617444

  10. The Computational Properties of a Simplified Cortical Column Model

    PubMed Central

    Iyer, Ramakrishnan; Koch, Christof; Mihalas, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    The mammalian neocortex has a repetitious, laminar structure and performs functions integral to higher cognitive processes, including sensory perception, memory, and coordinated motor output. What computations does this circuitry subserve that link these unique structural elements to their function? Potjans and Diesmann (2014) parameterized a four-layer, two cell type (i.e. excitatory and inhibitory) model of a cortical column with homogeneous populations and cell type dependent connection probabilities. We implement a version of their model using a displacement integro-partial differential equation (DiPDE) population density model. This approach, exact in the limit of large homogeneous populations, provides a fast numerical method to solve equations describing the full probability density distribution of neuronal membrane potentials. It lends itself to quickly analyzing the mean response properties of population-scale firing rate dynamics. We use this strategy to examine the input-output relationship of the Potjans and Diesmann cortical column model to understand its computational properties. When inputs are constrained to jointly and equally target excitatory and inhibitory neurons, we find a large linear regime where the effect of a multi-layer input signal can be reduced to a linear combination of component signals. One of these, a simple subtractive operation, can act as an error signal passed between hierarchical processing stages. PMID:27617444

  11. One-dimensional simulation of fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios with PRM and Meso-NH models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strada, S.; Freitas, S. R.; Mari, C.; Longo, K. M.; Paugam, R.

    2013-02-01

    Wild-fires release huge amounts of aerosol and hazardous trace gases in the atmosphere. The residence time and the dispersion of fire pollutants in the atmosphere can range from hours to days and from local to continental scales. These various scenarios highly depend on the injection height of smoke plumes. The altitude at which fire products are injected in the atmosphere is controlled by fire characteristics and meteorological conditions. Injection height however is still poorly accounted in chemistry transport models for which fires are sub-grid scale processes which need to be parametrised. Only recently, physically-based approaches for estimating the fire injection heights have been developed which consider both the convective updrafts induced by the release of fire sensible heat and the impact of background meteorological environment on the fire convection dynamics. In this work, two different models are used to simulate fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios: a Mediterranean arson fire and two Amazonian deforestation fires. A Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux approach, formerly developed to reproduce convective boundary layer in the non-hydrostatic meteorological model Meso-NH, is compared to the 1-D Plume Rise Model. For both models, radiosonde data and re-analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been used as initial conditions to explore the sensitivity of the models responses to different meteorological forcings. The two models predict injection heights for the Mediterranean fire between 1.7 and 3.3 km with the Meso-NH/EDMF model systematically higher than the 1-D PRM model. Both models show a limited sensitivity to the meteorological forcings with a 20-30% difference in the injection height between radiosondes and ECMWF data for this case. Injection heights calculated for the two Amazonian fires ranges from 5 to 6.5 km for the 1-D PRM model and from 2 to 4 km for the Meso-NH/EDMF model. The

  12. Method of locating underground mines fires

    DOEpatents

    Laage, Linneas; Pomroy, William

    1992-01-01

    An improved method of locating an underground mine fire by comparing the pattern of measured combustion product arrival times at detector locations with a real time computer-generated array of simulated patterns. A number of electronic fire detection devices are linked thru telemetry to a control station on the surface. The mine's ventilation is modeled on a digital computer using network analysis software. The time reguired to locate a fire consists of the time required to model the mines' ventilation, generate the arrival time array, scan the array, and to match measured arrival time patterns to the simulated patterns.

  13. Computational modeling and multilevel cancer control interventions.

    PubMed

    Morrissey, Joseph P; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller; Price, Rebecca Anhang; Mandelblatt, Jeanne

    2012-05-01

    This chapter presents an overview of computational modeling as a tool for multilevel cancer care and intervention research. Model-based analyses have been conducted at various "beneath the skin" or biological scales as well as at various "above the skin" or socioecological levels of cancer care delivery. We review the basic elements of computational modeling and illustrate its applications in four cancer control intervention areas: tobacco use, colorectal cancer screening, cervical cancer screening, and racial disparities in access to breast cancer care. Most of these models have examined cancer processes and outcomes at only one or two levels. We suggest ways these models can be expanded to consider interactions involving three or more levels. Looking forward, a number of methodological, structural, and communication barriers must be overcome to create useful computational models of multilevel cancer interventions and population health.

  14. Parallel computing in atmospheric chemistry models

    SciTech Connect

    Rotman, D.

    1996-02-01

    Studies of atmospheric chemistry are of high scientific interest, involve computations that are complex and intense, and require enormous amounts of I/O. Current supercomputer computational capabilities are limiting the studies of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry and will certainly not be able to handle the upcoming coupled chemistry/climate models. To enable such calculations, the authors have developed a computing framework that allows computations on a wide range of computational platforms, including massively parallel machines. Because of the fast paced changes in this field, the modeling framework and scientific modules have been developed to be highly portable and efficient. Here, the authors present the important features of the framework and focus on the atmospheric chemistry module, named IMPACT, and its capabilities. Applications of IMPACT to aircraft studies will be presented.

  15. Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Wunch, D.; Toon, G. C.; Sherlock, V.; Wennberg, P. O.

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  16. Application of water mist for the control of fuel-rich fires in model coal mine entries

    SciTech Connect

    Loomis, I.M.; McPherson, M.J.

    1995-12-31

    A fuel-rich fire exists when the quantity of fuel exceeds the oxygen available to support complete combustion. The transition of a mine fire from Oxygen-rich to Fuel-rich combustion, at this time, represents a point-of-no-return in the fire fighting efforts. Once the transition has been made to fuel-rich the fire can spread at a rate 6 to 10 times as fast as in the oxygen-rich state. Utilizing available technology the fire fighters are left to seal the fuel-rich fire as the only technique to extinguish it. In order to minimize the devastating effects of a fuel-rich fire it is important to understand the means by which the fire becomes fuel-rich and by what means the fire may be returned to an oxygen-rich state. This paper covers: the development mechanism of a fuel-rich fire in a coal mine entry and the physical and chemical effects of applying water to a fire. Experiments concerning these matters have been conducted in a 30 cm square wind tunnel constructed at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University as a model coal mine entry. This paper also addresses the results obtained in testing application of a water mist to fuel-rich fires in this model. These tests have centered on the development profile of a fuel-rich fire in a duct and demonstrate a means of regaining control of a fuel-rich fire by returning it to an oxygen-rich state.

  17. Climatic variability, fire, and vegetation modeling in the North American Central Grassland Region

    SciTech Connect

    Lenihan, J.M.; Neilson, R.P. )

    1994-06-01

    In developing an equilibrium vegetation model for assessing the sensitivity of natural vegetation to climatic change in the Central Grasslands, we encountered difficulties in establishing solely climatic determinants for grasslands. Under the normal climate, woody plant dominance was predicted for much of the region supporting open grassland at the time of European settlement. Climatic data for historic periods and a fire model were used to test whether grass dominance was promoted by (1) climatic periods distinct from the normal period, (2) by fire, or (3) by the interactive effect of both. Grass/woody ratios in test simulations exhibited spatio-temporal variation produced by complex interactions among PET, precipitation seasonality, competition for soil moisture, and fuel characteristics determining fire intensity. Results support concepts of plant community thresholds and multiple steady states in the Central Grassland region.

  18. A Computational Framework for Realistic Retina Modeling.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Cañada, Pablo; Morillas, Christian; Pino, Begoña; Ros, Eduardo; Pelayo, Francisco

    2016-11-01

    Computational simulations of the retina have led to valuable insights about the biophysics of its neuronal activity and processing principles. A great number of retina models have been proposed to reproduce the behavioral diversity of the different visual processing pathways. While many of these models share common computational stages, previous efforts have been more focused on fitting specific retina functions rather than generalizing them beyond a particular model. Here, we define a set of computational retinal microcircuits that can be used as basic building blocks for the modeling of different retina mechanisms. To validate the hypothesis that similar processing structures may be repeatedly found in different retina functions, we implemented a series of retina models simply by combining these computational retinal microcircuits. Accuracy of the retina models for capturing neural behavior was assessed by fitting published electrophysiological recordings that characterize some of the best-known phenomena observed in the retina: adaptation to the mean light intensity and temporal contrast, and differential motion sensitivity. The retinal microcircuits are part of a new software platform for efficient computational retina modeling from single-cell to large-scale levels. It includes an interface with spiking neural networks that allows simulation of the spiking response of ganglion cells and integration with models of higher visual areas. PMID:27354192

  19. A Computational Framework for Realistic Retina Modeling.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Cañada, Pablo; Morillas, Christian; Pino, Begoña; Ros, Eduardo; Pelayo, Francisco

    2016-11-01

    Computational simulations of the retina have led to valuable insights about the biophysics of its neuronal activity and processing principles. A great number of retina models have been proposed to reproduce the behavioral diversity of the different visual processing pathways. While many of these models share common computational stages, previous efforts have been more focused on fitting specific retina functions rather than generalizing them beyond a particular model. Here, we define a set of computational retinal microcircuits that can be used as basic building blocks for the modeling of different retina mechanisms. To validate the hypothesis that similar processing structures may be repeatedly found in different retina functions, we implemented a series of retina models simply by combining these computational retinal microcircuits. Accuracy of the retina models for capturing neural behavior was assessed by fitting published electrophysiological recordings that characterize some of the best-known phenomena observed in the retina: adaptation to the mean light intensity and temporal contrast, and differential motion sensitivity. The retinal microcircuits are part of a new software platform for efficient computational retina modeling from single-cell to large-scale levels. It includes an interface with spiking neural networks that allows simulation of the spiking response of ganglion cells and integration with models of higher visual areas.

  20. Economic Analysis. Computer Simulation Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This volume of the text discusses the simulation of behavioral relationships among variable elements in an economy and presents…

  1. Computational study of lattice models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zujev, Aleksander

    This dissertation is composed of the descriptions of a few projects undertook to complete my doctorate at the University of California, Davis. Different as they are, the common feature of them is that they all deal with simulations of lattice models, and physics which results from interparticle interactions. As an example, both the Feynman-Kikuchi model (Chapter 3) and Bose-Fermi mixture (Chapter 4) deal with the conditions under which superfluid transitions occur. The dissertation is divided into two parts. Part I (Chapters 1-2) is theoretical. It describes the systems we study - superfluidity and particularly superfluid helium, and optical lattices. The numerical methods of working with them are described. The use of Monte Carlo methods is another unifying theme of the different projects in this thesis. Part II (Chapters 3-6) deals with applications. It consists of 4 chapters describing different projects. Two of them, Feynman-Kikuchi model, and Bose-Fermi mixture are finished and published. The work done on t - J model, described in Chapter 5, is more preliminary, and the project is far from complete. A preliminary report on it was given on 2009 APS March meeting. The Isentropic project, described in the last chapter, is finished. A report on it was given on 2010 APS March meeting, and a paper is in preparation. The quantum simulation program used for Bose-Fermi mixture project was written by our collaborators Valery Rousseau and Peter Denteneer. I had written my own code for the other projects.

  2. Computer Modeling of Direct Metal Laser Sintering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cross, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    A computational approach to modeling direct metal laser sintering (DMLS) additive manufacturing process is presented. The primary application of the model is for determining the temperature history of parts fabricated using DMLS to evaluate residual stresses found in finished pieces and to assess manufacturing process strategies to reduce part slumping. The model utilizes MSC SINDA as a heat transfer solver with imbedded FORTRAN computer code to direct laser motion, apply laser heating as a boundary condition, and simulate the addition of metal powder layers during part fabrication. Model results are compared to available data collected during in situ DMLS part manufacture.

  3. Fire environment determination in the LaSalle NPP control room

    SciTech Connect

    Usher, J.L.; Boccio, J.L.; Singhal, A.K.; Tam, L.T.

    1986-01-01

    One objective of NRC's Fire Protection Research Program (FPRP) is to improve the modeling of environments caused by fires in typical nuclear power plant enclosures. A three-dimensional fluid dynamics computer code (PHOENICS) has been adapted as a field-model fire code (SAFFIRE) for this purpose. The model has been applied to simulate two distinct fires in the control room of the LaSalle County power plant. The environments determined illustrate hazardous potential for both personnel and equipment.

  4. Large, high-intensity fire events in southern California shrublands: debunking the fine-grain age patch model.

    PubMed

    Keeley, Jon E; Zedler, Paul H

    2009-01-01

    We evaluate the fine-grain age patch model of fire regimes in southern California shrublands. Proponents contend that the historical condition was characterized by frequent small to moderate size, slow-moving smoldering fires, and that this regime has been disrupted by fire suppression activities that have caused unnatural fuel accumulation and anomalously large and catastrophic wildfires. A review of more than 100 19th-century newspaper reports reveals that large, high-intensity wildfires predate modern fire suppression policy, and extensive newspaper coverage plus first-hand accounts support the conclusion that the 1889 Santiago Canyon Fire was the largest fire in California history. Proponents of the fine-grain age patch model contend that even the very earliest 20th-century fires were the result of fire suppression disrupting natural fuel structure. We tested that hypothesis and found that, within the fire perimeters of two of the largest early fire events in 1919 and 1932, prior fire suppression activities were insufficient to have altered the natural fuel structure. Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires greater than 10,000 ha, consistent with the conclusion that fire suppression activities are not the cause of these fire events. Eight megafires (> or = 50,000 ha) are recorded for the region, and half have occurred in the last five years. These burned through a mosaic of age classes, which raises doubts that accumulation of old age classes explains these events. Extreme drought is a plausible explanation for this recent rash of such events, and it is hypothesized that these are due to droughts that led to increased dead fine fuels that promoted the incidence of firebrands and spot fires. A major shortcoming of the fine-grain age patch model is that it requires age-dependent flammability of shrubland fuels, but seral stage chaparral is dominated by short-lived species that create a dense surface layer of

  5. Large, high-intensity fire events in Southern California shrublands: Debunking the fine-grain age patch model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keeley, J.E.; Zedler, P.H.

    2009-01-01

    We evaluate the fine-grain age patch model of fire regimes in southern California shrublands. Proponents contend that the historical condition was characterized by frequent small to moderate size, slow-moving smoldering fires, and that this regime has been disrupted by fire suppression activities that have caused unnatural fuel accumulation and anomalously large and catastrophic wildfires. A review of more than 100 19th-century newspaper reports reveals that large, high-intensity wildfires predate modern fire suppression policy, and extensive newspaper coverage plus first-hand accounts support the conclusion that the 1889 Santiago Canyon Fire was the largest fire in California history. Proponents of the fine-grain age patch model contend that even the very earliest 20th-century fires were the result of fire suppression disrupting natural fuel structure. We tested that hypothesis and found that, within the fire perimeters of two of the largest early fire events in 1919 and 1932, prior fire suppression activities were insufficient to have altered the natural fuel structure. Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires greater than 10000 ha, consistent with the conclusion that fire suppression activities are not the cause of these fire events. Eight megafires (???50 000 ha) are recorded for the region, and half have occurred in the last five years. These burned through a mosaic of age classes, which raises doubts that accumulation of old age classes explains these events. Extreme drought is a plausible explanation for this recent rash of such events, and it is hypothesized that these are due to droughts that led to increased dead fine fuels that promoted the incidence of firebrands and spot fires. A major shortcoming of the fine-grain age patch model is that it requires age-dependent flammability of shrubland fuels, but seral stage chaparral is dominated by short-lived species that create a dense surface layer of fine

  6. Computational Modeling of Biological Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glazier, James

    2005-03-01

    The patterns of gene expression are only part of the complex set of processes that govern the formation of tissue structures during embryonic development. Cells need to differentiate and to migrate long distances through tissues. How do they know what to become and where to go? Cells secrete and follow gradients of diffusible chemicals (chemotaxis) and secrete non-diffusing extracellular matrix. In addition, variable adhesion molecules expressed on cells' surfaces help them to form coherent structures by differential adhesion. CompuCell is a public domain modeling environment which implements a simple, energy minimization framework to describe these and related morphogenetic processes. One attractive feature of this approach is that it can interface at small length scales with increasingly sophisticated models for genetic regulation and biochemistry inside individual cells and at large length scales with continuum Partial Differential Equation and Finite Element models. We provide examples of how this method applies to problems including the development of the bone structure in the avian wing, the life cycle of the simple organism, Dictyostelium discoideum and to vascular development and show how it ``postdicts'' the results of VE-cadherin knock-out experiments on in vitro vasculogenesis experiments.

  7. Computing a Comprehensible Model for Spam Filtering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Sepúlveda, Amparo; Triviño-Rodriguez, José L.; Morales-Bueno, Rafael

    In this paper, we describe the application of the Desicion Tree Boosting (DTB) learning model to spam email filtering.This classification task implies the learning in a high dimensional feature space. So, it is an example of how the DTB algorithm performs in such feature space problems. In [1], it has been shown that hypotheses computed by the DTB model are more comprehensible that the ones computed by another ensemble methods. Hence, this paper tries to show that the DTB algorithm maintains the same comprehensibility of hypothesis in high dimensional feature space problems while achieving the performance of other ensemble methods. Four traditional evaluation measures (precision, recall, F1 and accuracy) have been considered for performance comparison between DTB and others models usually applied to spam email filtering. The size of the hypothesis computed by a DTB is smaller and more comprehensible than the hypothesis computed by Adaboost and Naïve Bayes.

  8. Piping network model program for small computers

    SciTech Connect

    Kruckenberg, N.E.

    1986-07-01

    A model of fluid piping networks was developed to aid in solving problems in the recirculating water coolant system at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant. The piping network model can be used to solve steady state problems in which water flow rates and temperatures are to be determined, or in which temperature is an important factor in determining pressure losses. The model can be implemented on desktop computers to perform these calculations as needed to track changing process conditions. The report includes a description of the coolant system, the mathematical development f the computer model, a case study utilizing the model and a listing and sample run of the computer codes. 2 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian far east within a modeling framework of fire threat.

    PubMed

    Loboda, Tatiana V; Csiszar, Ivan A

    2007-04-01

    The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic fire occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland fire occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of fire threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in fire threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the fire impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within fire threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active fire product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of fire occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of fire ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in fire weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of fire ignitions.

  10. Fighting Fire with Fire: Modeling the Datacenter-Scale Effects of Targeted Superlattice Thermal Management

    SciTech Connect

    Biswas, S; Tiwari, M; Theogarajan, L; Sherwood, T P; Chong, F T

    2010-11-11

    Local thermal hot-spots in microprocessors lead to worst case provisioning of global cooling resources, especially in large-scale systems. However, efficiency of cooling solutions degrade non-linearly with supply temperature, resulting in high power consumption and cost in cooling - 50 {approx} 100% of IT power. Recent advances in active cooling techniques have shown on-chip thermoelectric coolers (TECs) to be very efficient at selectively eliminating small hot-spots, where applying current to a superlattice film deposited between silicon and the heat spreader results in a Peltier effect that spreads the heat and lowers the temperature of the hot-spot significantly to improve chip reliability. In this paper, we propose that hot-spot mitigation using thermoelectric coolers can be used as a power management mechanism to allow global coolers to be provisioned for a better worst case temperature leading to substantial savings in cooling power. In order to quantify the potential power savings from using TECs in data center servers, we present a detailed power model that integrates on-chip dynamic and leakage power sources, heat diffusion through the entire chip, TEC and global cooler efficiencies, and all their mutual interactions. Our multiscale analysis shows that, for a typical data center, TECs allow global coolers to operate at higher temperatures without degrading chip lifetime, and thus save {approx}27% cooling power on average while providing the same processor reliability as a data center running at 288K.

  11. Surface dimming by the 2013 Rim Fire simulated by a sectional aerosol model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Pengfei; Toon, Owen B.; Bardeen, Charles G.; Bucholtz, Anthony; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Saide, Pablo E.; Da Silva, Arlindo; Ziemba, Luke D.; Thornhill, Kenneth L.; Jimenez, Jose-Luis; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Perring, Anne E.; Froyd, Karl D.; Wagner, N. L.; Mills, Michael J.; Reid, Jeffrey S.

    2016-06-01

    The Rim Fire of 2013, the third largest area burned by fire recorded in California history, is simulated by a climate model coupled with a size-resolved aerosol model. Modeled aerosol mass, number, and particle size distribution are within variability of data obtained from multiple-airborne in situ measurements. Simulations suggest that Rim Fire smoke may block 4-6% of sunlight energy reaching the surface, with a dimming efficiency around 120-150 W m-2 per unit aerosol optical depth in the midvisible at 13:00-15:00 local time. Underestimation of simulated smoke single scattering albedo at midvisible by 0.04 suggests that the model overestimates either the particle size or the absorption due to black carbon. This study shows that exceptional events like the 2013 Rim Fire can be simulated by a climate model with 1° resolution with overall good skill, although that resolution is still not sufficient to resolve the smoke peak near the source region.

  12. Forest-fire model as a supercritical dynamic model in financial systems.

    PubMed

    Lee, Deokjae; Kim, Jae-Young; Lee, Jeho; Kahng, B

    2015-02-01

    Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.

  13. Forest-fire model as a supercritical dynamic model in financial systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Deokjae; Kim, Jae-Young; Lee, Jeho; Kahng, B.

    2015-02-01

    Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.

  14. ARAC dispersion modeling of the August 1998 Tracy, California tire fire

    SciTech Connect

    Aluzzi, F J; Baskett, R L; Bowen, B M; Foster, C S; Pace, J C; Pobanz, B; Vogt, P J

    1998-08-28

    At about 4:30 pm PDT on Friday, August 7, 1998 a fire ignited the large tire disposal pit of Royster Tire Co. on Macarthur Drive about 5 km (3 miles) south of downtown Tracy, California. While providing on-scene mutual aid late Friday night, the LLNL Fire Department called and requested that the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) make a plume forecast for Saturday. The response team in the field was interested in the forecasted location as well as an estimate of potential health effects on the following day. Not having any previous experience with tire fire source terms, ARAC assessors used a constant unit source rate (1 g/s) of particulate and produced plots showing only the location of the ground-level normalized time-integrated air concentrations from the smoke plume. Very early Saturday morning the assessors faxed plots of ground-level smoke air concentrations forecasted for Saturday from 6 am through 6 pm PDT to the Tracy Fire Emergency Operations Center. (As a part of standard procedure, before delivering the plots, the assessors notified ARAC's DOE sponsor.) Fortunately due to the intense heat from the fire, the dense black smoke immediately lofted into the air preventing high ground-level concentrations close to the tire dump. Later on Saturday morning ARAC forecasted a second set of plume integrated air concentrations for Sunday. By Monday the intensity of the fire lessened, and ARAC's support was no longer requested. Following ARAC's response, we made a third calculation on a large scale of the continuous smoke dispersion for 3 days after the fire. A newspaper photograph showed the plume initially rising toward the northeast and the upper part of the smoke cloud turning counterclockwise toward the north. Winds from ARAC's mesoscale prognostic model reproduced this plume structure, while data from the Friday afternoon sounding from Oakland did not. On the 250 km scale, using gridded wind outputs from our mesoscale forecast model to initialize

  15. Use of a field model to analyze probable fire environments encountered within the complex geometries of nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Boccio, J.L.; Usher, J.L.; Singhal, A.K.; Tam, L.T.

    1985-08-01

    A fire in a nuclear power plant (NPP) can damage equipment needed to safely operate the plant and thereby either directly cause an accident or else reduce the plant's margin of safety. The development of a field-model fire code to analyze the probable fire environments encountered within NPP is discussed. A set of fire tests carried out under the aegis of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is described. The results of these tests are then utilized to validate the field model.

  16. Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Erosion Modeling: Lessons Learned from the Rock House and High Park Fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Mary Ellen; Elliot, William E.; MacDonald, Lee H.

    2013-04-01

    Once the danger posed by an active wildfire has passed, land managers must rapidly assess the threat from post-fire runoff and erosion due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties. Increased runoff and sediment delivery are of great concern to both the pubic and resource managers. Post-fire assessments and proposals to mitigate these threats are typically undertaken by interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams. These teams are under very tight deadlines, so they often begin their analysis while the fire is still burning and typically must complete their plans within a couple of weeks. Many modeling tools and datasets have been developed over the years to assist BAER teams, but process-based, spatially explicit models are currently under-utilized relative to simpler, lumped models because they are more difficult to set up and require the preparation of spatially-explicit data layers such as digital elevation models, soils, and land cover. The difficulty of acquiring and utilizing these data layers in spatially-explicit models increases with increasing fire size. Spatially-explicit post-fire erosion modeling was attempted for a small watershed in the 1270 km2 Rock House fire in Texas, but the erosion modeling work could not be completed in time. The biggest limitation was the time required to extract the spatially explicit soils data needed to run the preferred post-fire erosion model (GeoWEPP with Disturbed WEPP parameters). The solution is to have the spatial soil, land cover, and DEM data layers prepared ahead of time, and to have a clear methodology for the BAER teams to incorporate these layers in spatially-explicit modeling interfaces like GeoWEPP. After a fire occurs the data layers can quickly be clipped to the fire perimeter. The soil and land cover parameters can then be adjusted according to the burn severity map, which is one of the first products generated for the BAER teams. Under a previous project

  17. Computational modeling of peptide-aptamer binding.

    PubMed

    Rhinehardt, Kristen L; Mohan, Ram V; Srinivas, Goundla

    2015-01-01

    Evolution is the progressive process that holds each living creature in its grasp. From strands of DNA evolution shapes life with response to our ever-changing environment and time. It is the continued study of this most primitive process that has led to the advancement of modern biology. The success and failure in the reading, processing, replication, and expression of genetic code and its resulting biomolecules keep the delicate balance of life. Investigations into these fundamental processes continue to make headlines as science continues to explore smaller scale interactions with increasing complexity. New applications and advanced understanding of DNA, RNA, peptides, and proteins are pushing technology and science forward and together. Today the addition of computers and advances in science has led to the fields of computational biology and chemistry. Through these computational advances it is now possible not only to quantify the end results but also visualize, analyze, and fully understand mechanisms by gaining deeper insights. The biomolecular motion that exists governing the physical and chemical phenomena can now be analyzed with the advent of computational modeling. Ever-increasing computational power combined with efficient algorithms and components are further expanding the fidelity and scope of such modeling and simulations. This chapter discusses computational methods that apply biological processes, in particular computational modeling of peptide-aptamer binding.

  18. Neuromodulation impact on nonlinear firing behavior of a reduced model motoneuron with the active dendrite

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Hojeong; Heckman, C. J.

    2014-01-01

    Neuromodulatory inputs from brainstem systems modulate the normal function of spinal motoneurons by altering the activation properties of persistent inward currents (PICs) in their dendrites. However, the effect of the PIC on firing outputs also depends on its location in the dendritic tree. To investigate the interaction between PIC neuromodulation and PIC location dependence, we used a two-compartment model that was biologically realistic in that it retains directional and frequency-dependent electrical coupling between the soma and the dendrites, as seen in multi-compartment models based on full anatomical reconstructions of motoneurons. Our two-compartment approach allowed us to systematically vary the coupling parameters between the soma and the dendrite to accurately reproduce the effect of location of the dendritic PIC on the generation of nonlinear (hysteretic) motoneuron firing patterns. Our results show that as a single parameter value for PIC activation was either increased or decreased by 20% from its default value, the solution space of the coupling parameter values for nonlinear firing outputs was drastically reduced by approximately 80%. As a result, the model tended to fire only in a linear mode at the majority of dendritic PIC sites. The same results were obtained when all parameters for the PIC activation simultaneously changed only by approximately ±10%. Our results suggest the democratization effect of neuromodulation: the neuromodulation by the brainstem systems may play a role in switching the motoneurons with PICs at different dendritic locations to a similar mode of firing by reducing the effect of the dendritic location of PICs on the firing behavior. PMID:25309410

  19. Model comparisons for estimating carbon emissions from North American wildland fire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    French, Nancy H. F.; de Groot, William J.; Jenkins, Liza K.; Rogers, Brendan M.; Alvarado, Ernesto; Amiro, Brian; de Jong, Bernardus; Goetz, Scott; Hoy, Elizabeth; Hyer, Edward; Keane, Robert; Law, B. E.; McKenzie, Donald; McNulty, Steven G.; Ottmar, Roger; PéRez-Salicrup, Diego R.; Randerson, James; Robertson, Kevin M.; Turetsky, Merritt

    2011-12-01

    Research activities focused on estimating the direct emissions of carbon from wildland fires across North America are reviewed as part of the North American Carbon Program disturbance synthesis. A comparison of methods to estimate the loss of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere from wildland fires is presented. Published studies on emissions from recent and historic time periods and five specific cases are summarized, and new emissions estimates are made using contemporary methods for a set of specific fire events. Results from as many as six terrestrial models are compared. We find that methods generally produce similar results within each case, but estimates vary based on site location, vegetation (fuel) type, and fire weather. Area normalized emissions range from 0.23 kg C m-2 for shrubland sites in southern California/NW Mexico to as high as 6.0 kg C m-2 in northern conifer forests. Total emissions range from 0.23 to 1.6 Tg C for a set of 2003 fires in chaparral-dominated landscapes of California to 3.9 to 6.2 Tg C in the dense conifer forests of western Oregon. While the results from models do not always agree, variations can be attributed to differences in model assumptions and methods, including the treatment of canopy consumption and methods to account for changes in fuel moisture, one of the main drivers of variability in fire emissions. From our review and synthesis, we identify key uncertainties and areas of improvement for understanding the magnitude and spatial-temporal patterns of pyrogenic carbon emissions across North America.

  20. Modeling the effects of environmental disturbance on wildlife communities: Avian responses to prescribed fire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Russell, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Saab, V.A.; Lehmkuhl, J.F.; Block, W.M.; Sauer, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    Prescribed fire is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads on public lands in forested areas in the western United States. Identifying the impacts of prescribed fire on bird communities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests is necessary for providing land management agencies with information regarding the effects of fuel reduction on sensitive, threatened, and migratory bird species. Recent developments in occupancy modeling have established a framework for quantifying the impacts of management practices on wildlife community dynamics. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical model of multi-species occupancy accounting for detection probability, and we demonstrate the model's usefulness for identifying effects of habitat disturbances on wildlife communities. Advantages to using the model include the ability to estimate the effects of environmental impacts on rare or elusive species, the intuitive nature of the modeling, the incorporation of detection probability, the estimation of parameter uncertainty, the flexibility of the model to suit a variety of experimental designs, and the composite estimate of the response that applies to the collection of observed species as opposed to merely a small subset of common species. Our modeling of the impacts of prescribed fire on avian communities in a ponderosa pine forest in Washington indicate that prescribed fire treatments result in increased occupancy rates for several bark-insectivore, cavity-nesting species including a management species of interest, Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus). Three aerial insectivore species, and the ground insectivore, American Robin (Turdus migratorius), also responded positively to prescribed fire, whereas three foliage insectivores and two seed specialists, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) and the Pine Siskin (Carduelis pinus), declined following treatments. Land management agencies interested in determining the effects of habitat manipulations on wildlife

  1. Study on the Fire Damage Characteristics of the New Qidaoliang Highway Tunnel: Field Investigation with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Back Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lai, Hongpeng; Wang, Shuyong; Xie, Yongli

    2016-01-01

    In the New Qidaoliang Tunnel (China), a rear-end collision of two tanker trunks caused a fire. To understand the damage characteristics of the tunnel lining structure, in situ investigation was performed. The results show that the fire in the tunnel induced spallation of tunnel lining concrete covering 856 m3; the length of road surface damage reached 650 m; the sectional area had a maximum 4% increase, and the mechanical and electrical facilities were severely damaged. The maximum area loss happened at the fire spot with maximum observed concrete spallation up to a thickness of 35.4 cm. The strength of vault and side wall concrete near the fire source was significantly reduced. The loss of concrete strength of the side wall near the inner surface of tunnel was larger than that near the surrounding rock. In order to perform back analysis of the effect of thermal load on lining structure, simplified numerical simulation using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was also performed, repeating the fire scenario. The simulated results showed that from the fire breaking out to the point of becoming steady, the tunnel experienced processes of small-scale warming, swirl around fire, backflow, and longitudinal turbulent flow. The influence range of the tunnel internal temperature on the longitudinal downstream was far greater than on the upstream, while the high temperature upstream and downstream of the transverse fire source mainly centered on the vault or the higher vault waist. The temperature of each part of the tunnel near the fire source had no obvious stratification phenomenon. The temperature of the vault lining upstream and downstream near the fire source was the highest. The numerical simulation is found to be in good agreement with the field observations. PMID:27754455

  2. The modeled effects of fire on carbon balance and vegetation abundance in Alaskan tundra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dietze, M. C.; Davidson, C. D.; Kelly, R.; Higuera, P. E.; Hu, F.

    2012-12-01

    Arctic climate is warming at a rate disproportionately faster than the rest of the world. Changes have been observed within the tundra that are attributed to this trend, including active layer thickening, shrub land expansion, and increases in fire frequency. Whether tundra remains a global net sink of carbon could depend upon the effects of fire on vegetation, specifically concerning the speed at which vegetation reestablishes, the stimulation of growth after fire, and the changes that occur in species composition during succession. While rapid regeneration of graminoid vegetation favors the spread of this functional type in early succession, late succession appears to favor shrub vegetation at abundances greater than those observed before fire. Possible reasons for this latter observation include changes in albedo, soil insulation, and soil moisture regimes. Here we investigate the course of succession after fire disturbance within tundra ecosystems, and the mechanisms involved. A series of simulated burn experiments were conducted on the burn site left by the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire to access the behavior of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 (ED2) in the simulation of fire on the tundra. The land surface sub-model within ED is modified to improve simulate permafrost through the effects of an increased soil-column depth, a peat texture class, and the effects of wind compaction and depth hoar on snow density. Parameterization is conducted through Bayesian techniques used to constrain parameter distributions based upon data from a literature survey, field measurements at Toolik Lake, Alaska, and a data assimilation over three datasets. At each step, priority was assigned to measurements that could constrain parameters that account for the greatest explained variance in model output as determined through sensitivity analysis. Following parameterization, a series of simulations were performed to gauge the suitability of the model in predicting carbon balance and

  3. Estimates of fire emissions from an active deforestation region in the southern Amazon based on satellite data and biogeochemical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Werf, G. R.; Morton, D. C.; Defries, R. S.; Giglio, L.; Randerson, J. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

    2009-02-01

    Tropical deforestation contributes to the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Within the deforestation process, fire is frequently used to eliminate biomass in preparation for agricultural use. Quantifying these deforestation-induced fire emissions represents a challenge, and current estimates are only available at coarse spatial resolution with large uncertainty. Here we developed a biogeochemical model using remote sensing observations of plant productivity, fire activity, and deforestation rates to estimate emissions for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001-2005. Our model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF) runs at 250-m spatial resolution with a monthly time step to capture spatial and temporal heterogeneity in fire dynamics in our study area within the ''arc of deforestation'', the southern and eastern fringe of the Amazon tropical forest where agricultural expansion is most concentrated. Fire emissions estimates from our modelling framework were on average 90 Tg C year-1, mostly stemming from fires associated with deforestation (74%) with smaller contributions from fires from conversions of Cerrado or pastures to cropland (19%) and pasture fires (7%). In terms of carbon dynamics, about 80% of the aboveground living biomass and litter was combusted when forests were converted to pasture, and 89% when converted to cropland because of the highly mechanized nature of the deforestation process in Mato Grosso. The trajectory of land use change from forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. Interannual variability in the region was somewhat dampened as well because annual emissions from fires following deforestation and from maintenance fires did not covary, although

  4. Estimates of fire emissions from an active deforestation region in the southern Amazon based on satellite data and biogeochemical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Werf, G. R.; Morton, D. C.; Defries, R. S.; Giglio, L.; Randerson, J. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

    2008-09-01

    Tropical deforestation contributes to the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Within the deforestation process, fire is frequently used to eliminate biomass in preparation for agricultural use. Quantifying these deforestation-induced fire emissions represents a challenge, and current estimates are only available at coarse spatial resolution with large uncertainty. Here we developed a biogeochemical model using remote sensing observations of plant productivity, fire activity, and deforestation rates to estimate emissions for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001 2005. Our model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF) runs at 250-m spatial resolution with a monthly time step to capture spatial and temporal heterogeneity in fire dynamics in our study area within the "arc of deforestation", the southern and eastern fringe of the Amazon tropical forest where agricultural expansion is most concentrated. Fire emissions estimates from our modelling framework were on average 90 Tg C year-1, mostly stemming from fires associated with deforestation (74%) with smaller contributions from fires from conversions of Cerrado or pastures to cropland (19%) and pasture fires (7%). In terms of carbon dynamics, about 80% of the aboveground living biomass and litter was combusted when forests were converted to pasture, and 89% when converted to cropland because of the highly mechanized nature of the deforestation process in Mato Grosso. The trajectory of land use change from forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. Interannual variability in the region was somewhat dampened as well because annual emissions from fires following deforestation and from maintenance fires did not covary, although

  5. Climate Modeling using High-Performance Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Mirin, A A; Wickett, M E; Duffy, P B; Rotman, D A

    2005-03-03

    The Center for Applied Scientific Computing (CASC) and the LLNL Atmospheric Science Division (ASD) are working together to improve predictions of future climate by applying the best available computational methods and computer resources to this problem. Over the last decade, researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have developed a number of climate models that provide state-of-the-art simulations on a wide variety of massively parallel computers. We are now developing and applying a second generation of high-performance climate models. As part of LLNL's participation in DOE's Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program, members of CASC and ASD are collaborating with other DOE labs and NCAR in the development of a comprehensive, next-generation global climate model. This model incorporates the most current physics and numerics and capably exploits the latest massively parallel computers. One of LLNL's roles in this collaboration is the scalable parallelization of NASA's finite-volume atmospheric dynamical core. We have implemented multiple two-dimensional domain decompositions, where the different decompositions are connected by high-speed transposes. Additional performance is obtained through shared memory parallelization constructs and one-sided interprocess communication. The finite-volume dynamical core is particularly important to atmospheric chemistry simulations, where LLNL has a leading role.

  6. 78 FR 35747 - Special Conditions: Cirrus Design Corporation, Model SF50; Fire Extinguishing for Upper Aft...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-14

    ... Corporation. DATES: This special condition published on April 20, 2010 at 75 FR 20518 is withdrawn, effective... model SF50 certification project was granted an extension on September 19, 2011. Amendment 23-62 (76 FR...; Fire Extinguishing for Upper Aft Fuselage Mounted Engine; Withdrawal AGENCY: Federal...

  7. Cortical Network Models of Firing Rates in the Resting and Active States Predict BOLD Responses.

    PubMed

    Bennett, Maxwell R; Farnell, Les; Gibson, William G; Lagopoulos, Jim

    2015-01-01

    Measurements of blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signals have produced some surprising observations. One is that their amplitude is proportional to the entire activity in a region of interest and not just the fluctuations in this activity. Another is that during sleep and anesthesia the average BOLD correlations between regions of interest decline as the activity declines. Mechanistic explanations of these phenomena are described here using a cortical network model consisting of modules with excitatory and inhibitory neurons, taken as regions of cortical interest, each receiving excitatory inputs from outside the network, taken as subcortical driving inputs in addition to extrinsic (intermodular) connections, such as provided by associational fibers. The model shows that the standard deviation of the firing rate is proportional to the mean frequency of the firing when the extrinsic connections are decreased, so that the mean BOLD signal is proportional to both as is observed experimentally. The model also shows that if these extrinsic connections are decreased or the frequency of firing reaching the network from the subcortical driving inputs is decreased, or both decline, there is a decrease in the mean firing rate in the modules accompanied by decreases in the mean BOLD correlations between the modules, consistent with the observed changes during NREM sleep and under anesthesia. Finally, the model explains why a transient increase in the BOLD signal in a cortical area, due to a transient subcortical input, gives rises to responses throughout the cortex as observed, with these responses mediated by the extrinsic (intermodular) connections.

  8. A computational model of the cerebellum

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, B.J.

    1990-01-01

    The need for realistic computational models of neural microarchitecture is growing increasingly apparent. While traditional neural networks have made inroads on understanding cognitive functions, more realism (in the form of structural and connectivity constraints) is required to explain processes such as vision or motor control. A highly detailed computational model of mammalian cerebellum has been developed. It is being compared to physiological recordings for validation purposes. The model is also being used to study the relative contributions of each component to cerebellar processing. 28 refs., 4 figs.

  9. A School Finance Computer Simulation Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boardman, Gerald R.

    1974-01-01

    Presents a description of the computer simulation model developed by the National Educational Finance Project for use by States in planning and evaluating alternative approaches for State support programs. Provides a general introduction to the model, a program operation overview, a sample run, and some conclusions. (Author/WM)

  10. Modeling User Behavior in Computer Learning Tasks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mantei, Marilyn M.

    Model building techniques from Artifical Intelligence and Information-Processing Psychology are applied to human-computer interface tasks to evaluate existing interfaces and suggest new and better ones. The model is in the form of an augmented transition network (ATN) grammar which is built by applying grammar induction heuristics on a sequential…

  11. A Computational Model of Selection by Consequences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDowell, J. J.

    2004-01-01

    Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of…

  12. Computer model of an electromagnetic accelerator

    SciTech Connect

    D'yakov, B.B.; Reznikov, B.I.

    1987-07-01

    The authors examine a computer model of an electromagnetic accelerator (rail gun) with a projected body accelerated by a plasma. They determine the effective length of the accelerator, the electrical efficiency of the equipment, and the plasma parameters. Numerical results are obtained for different parameters of the model electrical circuit. An example of a multisection rail gun is presented.

  13. Model fire tests on polyphosphazene rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber foams

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Widenor, W. M.

    1978-01-01

    A video tape record of model room fire tests was shown, comparing polyphosphazene (P-N) rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)/nitrile rubber closed-cell foams as interior finish thermal insulation under conditions directly translatable to an actual fire situation. Flashover did not occur with the P-N foam and only moderate amounts of low density smoke were formed, whereas with the PVC/nitrile foam, flashover occurred quickly and large volumes of high density smoke were emitted. The P-N foam was produced in a pilot plant under carefully controlled conditions. The PVC/nitrile foam was a commercial product. A major phase of the overall program involved fire tests on P-N open-cell foam cushioning.

  14. Full-scale flammability test data for validation of aircraft fire mathematical models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuminecz, J. F.; Bricker, R. W.

    1982-01-01

    Twenty-five large scale aircraft flammability tests were conducted in a Boeing 737 fuselage at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The objective of this test program was to provide a data base on the propagation of large scale aircraft fires to support the validation of aircraft fire mathematical models. Variables in the test program included cabin volume, amount of fuel, fuel pan area, fire location, airflow rate, and cabin materials. A number of tests were conducted with jet A-1 fuel only, while others were conducted with various Boeing 747 type cabin materials. These included urethane foam seats, passenger service units, stowage bins, and wall and ceiling panels. Two tests were also included using special urethane foam and polyimide foam seats. Tests were conducted with each cabin material individually, with various combinations of these materials, and finally, with all materials in the cabin. The data include information obtained from approximately 160 locations inside the fuselage.

  15. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  16. Computer Modeling and Visualization in Design Technology: An Instructional Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guidera, Stan

    2002-01-01

    Design visualization can increase awareness of issues related to perceptual and psychological aspects of design that computer-assisted design and computer modeling may not allow. A pilot university course developed core skills in modeling and simulation using visualization. Students were consistently able to meet course objectives. (Contains 16…

  17. Evaluation of the oscillatory interference model of grid cell firing through analysis and measured period variance of some biological oscillators.

    PubMed

    Zilli, Eric A; Yoshida, Motoharu; Tahvildari, Babak; Giocomo, Lisa M; Hasselmo, Michael E

    2009-11-01

    Models of the hexagonally arrayed spatial activity pattern of grid cell firing in the literature generally fall into two main categories: continuous attractor models or oscillatory interference models. Burak and Fiete (2009, PLoS Comput Biol) recently examined noise in two continuous attractor models, but did not consider oscillatory interference models in detail. Here we analyze an oscillatory interference model to examine the effects of noise on its stability and spatial firing properties. We show analytically that the square of the drift in encoded position due to noise is proportional to time and inversely proportional to the number of oscillators. We also show there is a relatively fixed breakdown point, independent of many parameters of the model, past which noise overwhelms the spatial signal. Based on this result, we show that a pair of oscillators are expected to maintain a stable grid for approximately t = 5mu(3)/(4pisigma)(2) seconds where mu is the mean period of an oscillator in seconds and sigma(2) its variance in seconds(2). We apply this criterion to recordings of individual persistent spiking neurons in postsubiculum (dorsal presubiculum) and layers III and V of entorhinal cortex, to subthreshold membrane potential oscillation recordings in layer II stellate cells of medial entorhinal cortex and to values from the literature regarding medial septum theta bursting cells. All oscillators examined have expected stability times far below those seen in experimental recordings of grid cells, suggesting the examined biological oscillators are unfit as a substrate for current implementations of oscillatory interference models. However, oscillatory interference models can tolerate small amounts of noise, suggesting the utility of circuit level effects which might reduce oscillator variability. Further implications for grid cell models are discussed.

  18. The Effects of Modern-Day Cropland and Pasture Management on Vegetation Fire: An Earth System Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rabin, S. S.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Fire is a major component of the global carbon cycle, with some estimates of the associated emissions reaching 2.5 PgC/yr. This and the other impacts of biomass burning have driven efforts to improve its simulation in Earth system models. Recent global fire models usually include both bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of fire, with the latter (via population density and sometimes economic status) serving to increase or suppress burned area. Some models have added the representation of fire used in deforestation and cropland management, the extent and seasonal timing of which may not be accounted for by the usual approach to anthropogenic influence. Human land use can also limit fire by fragmenting landscapes, but this process is not included in most global models. Moreover, although people often use fire to manage grazing lands for livestock, these practices have not been explicitly modeled (except as performed by pre-industrial societies). This could be important for regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of pasture burning tends to differ from that of other lands, potentially influencing savanna-forest dynamics. Recent efforts elucidating the effects of cropland and pasture on fire regimes at regional scales provide insight into these processes. Using this new understanding, we have developed a fire model with structurally distinct modules for burning of croplands, pasture, and primary and secondary lands, as well as fire use for deforestation. Parameters for each are rigorously constrained using remote-sensing observations of burned area. This structure allows us to disentangle agricultural practices and fragmentation effects from the endogenous processes driving fire on non-agricultural land, resulting in a better ability to simulate how fire works at large scales. This is critical for modeling the future of fire and all the parts of the Earth system that it affects, including vegetation distributions, nutrient cycling, and biosphere

  19. Concepts to accelerate water balance model computation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gronz, Oliver; Casper, Markus; Gemmar, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Computation time of water balance models has decreased with the increasing performance of CPUs within the last decades. Often, these advantages have been used to enhance the models, e. g. by enlarging spatial resolution or by using smaller simulation time steps. During the last few years, CPU development tended to focus on strong multi core concepts rather than 'simply being generally faster'. Additionally, computer clusters or even computer clouds have become much more commonly available. All these facts again extend our degrees of freedom in simulating water balance models - if the models are able to efficiently use the computer infrastructure. In the following, we present concepts to optimize especially repeated runs and we generally discuss concepts of parallel computing opportunities. Surveyed model In our examinations, we focused on the water balance model LARSIM. In this model, the catchment is subdivided into elements, each of which representing a certain section of a river and its contributory area. Each element is again subdivided into single compartments of homogeneous land use. During the simulation, the relevant hydrological processes are simulated individually for each compartment. The simulated runoff of all compartments leads into the river channel of the corresponding element. Finally, channel routing is simulated for all elements. Optimizing repeated runs During a typical simulation, several input files have to be read before simulation starts: the model structure, the initial model state and meteorological input files. Furthermore, some calculations have to be solved, like interpolating meteorological values. Thus, e. g. the application of Monte Carlo methods will typically use the following algorithm: 1) choose parameters, 2) set parameters in control files, 3) run model, 4) save result, 5) repeat from step 1. Obviously, the third step always includes the previously mentioned steps of reading and preprocessing. Consequently, the model can be

  20. Human systems dynamics: Toward a computational model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eoyang, Glenda H.

    2012-09-01

    A robust and reliable computational model of complex human systems dynamics could support advancements in theory and practice for social systems at all levels, from intrapersonal experience to global politics and economics. Models of human interactions have evolved from traditional, Newtonian systems assumptions, which served a variety of practical and theoretical needs of the past. Another class of models has been inspired and informed by models and methods from nonlinear dynamics, chaos, and complexity science. None of the existing models, however, is able to represent the open, high dimension, and nonlinear self-organizing dynamics of social systems. An effective model will represent interactions at multiple levels to generate emergent patterns of social and political life of individuals and groups. Existing models and modeling methods are considered and assessed against characteristic pattern-forming processes in observed and experienced phenomena of human systems. A conceptual model, CDE Model, based on the conditions for self-organizing in human systems, is explored as an alternative to existing models and methods. While the new model overcomes the limitations of previous models, it also provides an explanatory base and foundation for prospective analysis to inform real-time meaning making and action taking in response to complex conditions in the real world. An invitation is extended to readers to engage in developing a computational model that incorporates the assumptions, meta-variables, and relationships of this open, high dimension, and nonlinear conceptual model of the complex dynamics of human systems.

  1. CDF computing and event data models

    SciTech Connect

    Snider, F.D.; /Fermilab

    2005-12-01

    The authors discuss the computing systems, usage patterns and event data models used to analyze Run II data from the CDF-II experiment at the Tevatron collider. A critical analysis of the current implementation and design reveals some of the stronger and weaker elements of the system, which serve as lessons for future experiments. They highlight a need to maintain simplicity for users in the face of an increasingly complex computing environment.

  2. Do's and Don'ts of Computer Models for Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, John S., III

    1974-01-01

    Concentrates on the managerial issues involved in computer planning models. Describes what computer planning models are and the process by which managers can increase the likelihood of computer planning models being successful in their organizations. (Author/DN)

  3. The NASA/Baltimore Applications Project (BAP). Computer aided dispatch and communications system for the Baltimore Fire Department: A case study of urban technology application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, A. L.

    1981-01-01

    An engineer and a computer expert from Goddard Space Flight Center were assigned to provide technical assistance in the design and installation of a computer assisted system for dispatching and communicating with fire department personnel and equipment in Baltimore City. Primary contributions were in decision making and management processes. The project is analyzed from four perspectives: (1) fire service; (2) technology transfer; (3) public administration; and (5) innovation. The city benefitted substantially from the approach and competence of the NASA personnel. Given the proper conditions, there are distinct advantages in having a nearby Federal laboratory provide assistance to a city on a continuing basis, as is done in the Baltimore Applications Project.

  4. Neural Dynamics as Sampling: A Model for Stochastic Computation in Recurrent Networks of Spiking Neurons

    PubMed Central

    Buesing, Lars; Bill, Johannes; Nessler, Bernhard; Maass, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    The organization of computations in networks of spiking neurons in the brain is still largely unknown, in particular in view of the inherently stochastic features of their firing activity and the experimentally observed trial-to-trial variability of neural systems in the brain. In principle there exists a powerful computational framework for stochastic computations, probabilistic inference by sampling, which can explain a large number of macroscopic experimental data in neuroscience and cognitive science. But it has turned out to be surprisingly difficult to create a link between these abstract models for stochastic computations and more detailed models of the dynamics of networks of spiking neurons. Here we create such a link and show that under some conditions the stochastic firing activity of networks of spiking neurons can be interpreted as probabilistic inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Since common methods for MCMC sampling in distributed systems, such as Gibbs sampling, are inconsistent with the dynamics of spiking neurons, we introduce a different approach based on non-reversible Markov chains that is able to reflect inherent temporal processes of spiking neuronal activity through a suitable choice of random variables. We propose a neural network model and show by a rigorous theoretical analysis that its neural activity implements MCMC sampling of a given distribution, both for the case of discrete and continuous time. This provides a step towards closing the gap between abstract functional models of cortical computation and more detailed models of networks of spiking neurons. PMID:22096452

  5. A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, C. H.; Chien, S. W.; Ho, M. C.

    2015-08-01

    Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

  6. Unprecedented recent burning of the Alaskan boreal forest points to shifting controls on fire: A paleoecological data-model investigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, R.; Chipman, M. L.; Higuera, P. E.; Raible, C.; Rupp, T. S.; Brubaker, L.; Hu, F.

    2011-12-01

    Fire is the primary disturbance in the boreal forest, and variations in fire regime have important ecological, biogeochemical, and socioeconomic implications. Climate has been a dominant control on boreal wildfire throughout the brief observational record, and recent warming is associated with widespread burning. However, fire-regime dynamics are highly scale-dependent, and it is unclear whether the observed climate-fire relationship is applicable to long-term projections. Paleo-fire reconstructions offer a valuable extension to historical fire records, and simulation models allow prescribed ecosystem processes to be played out through hypothetical scenarios. Together, the two approaches offer unique insight: reconstructions can validate long-term model behavior, which then becomes a credible basis for inference on the unobserved drivers of past and potential future fire-regime shifts. To infer fire-regime variations over the past 10,000 years, we created a composite charcoal record from eleven lakes in the Alaskan boreal forest. We compared the record to fires documented in the 60-year observational fire history, and to a 500-year fire history simulated by ALFRESCO, a stochastic model of boreal-forest fire dynamics. This paleodata-observation-model comparison allows us to (1) evaluate recent burning in the context of Holocene variability, (2) solidify the link between proxy charcoal data and actual fire regime characteristics, (3) validate centennial-scale model behavior, and (4) explore nonlinear fire-climate-vegetation interactions over decadal to millennial time scales. Our composite record reveals that recent charcoal production is unprecedented in the context of Holocene variability. Agreement among simulated, observed, and reconstructed fire histories implies that this charcoal signal is indicative of peak burning rates in the past several decades, likely driven by warm and dry summer conditions. The simulation results also reveal emergent long-term system

  7. Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

    2013-12-01

    Bark thickness is a key trait protecting woody plants against fire damage, while the ability to resprout is a trait that confers competitive advantage over non-resprouting individuals in fire-prone landscapes. Neither trait is well represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we describe a version of the Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Mv1) DGVM that incorporates both of these traits in a realistic way. From a synthesis of a large number of field studies, we show there is considerable innate variability in bark thickness between species within a plant-functional type (PFT). Furthermore, bark thickness is an adaptive trait at ecosystem level, increasing with fire frequency. We use the data to specify the range of bark thicknesses characteristic of each model PFT. We allow this distribution to change dynamically: thinner-barked trees are killed preferentially by fire, shifting the distribution of bark thicknesses represented in a model grid cell. We use the PFT-specific bark-thickness probability range for saplings during re-establishment. Since it is rare to destroy all trees in a grid cell, this treatment results in average bark thickness increasing with fire frequency and intensity. Resprouting is a prominent adaptation of temperate and tropical trees in fire-prone areas. The ability to resprout from above-ground tissue (apical or epicormic resprouting) results in the fastest recovery of total biomass after disturbance; resprouting from basal or below-ground meristems results in slower recovery, while non-resprouting species must regenerate from seed and therefore take the longest time to recover. Our analyses show that resprouting species have thicker bark than non-resprouting species. Investment in resprouting is accompanied by reduced efficacy of regeneration from seed. We introduce resprouting PFTs in LPX-Mv1 by specifying an appropriate range of bark thickness, allowing resprouters to survive fire and regenerate vegetatively in

  8. Computational disease modeling – fact or fiction?

    PubMed Central

    Tegnér, Jesper N; Compte, Albert; Auffray, Charles; An, Gary; Cedersund, Gunnar; Clermont, Gilles; Gutkin, Boris; Oltvai, Zoltán N; Stephan, Klaas Enno; Thomas, Randy; Villoslada, Pablo

    2009-01-01

    Background Biomedical research is changing due to the rapid accumulation of experimental data at an unprecedented scale, revealing increasing degrees of complexity of biological processes. Life Sciences are facing a transition from a descriptive to a mechanistic approach that reveals principles of cells, cellular networks, organs, and their interactions across several spatial and temporal scales. There are two conceptual traditions in biological computational-modeling. The bottom-up approach emphasizes complex intracellular molecular models and is well represented within the systems biology community. On the other hand, the physics-inspired top-down modeling strategy identifies and selects features of (presumably) essential relevance to the phenomena of interest and combines available data in models of modest complexity. Results The workshop, "ESF Exploratory Workshop on Computational disease Modeling", examined the challenges that computational modeling faces in contributing to the understanding and treatment of complex multi-factorial diseases. Participants at the meeting agreed on two general conclusions. First, we identified the critical importance of developing analytical tools for dealing with model and parameter uncertainty. Second, the development of predictive hierarchical models spanning several scales beyond intracellular molecular networks was identified as a major objective. This contrasts with the current focus within the systems biology community on complex molecular modeling. Conclusion During the workshop it became obvious that diverse scientific modeling cultures (from computational neuroscience, theory, data-driven machine-learning approaches, agent-based modeling, network modeling and stochastic-molecular simulations) would benefit from intense cross-talk on shared theoretical issues in order to make progress on clinically relevant problems. PMID:19497118

  9. Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS). Volume 6: Computer data. Part 1: Coal-fired nocogeneration process boiler, section A

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knightly, W. F.

    1980-01-01

    About fifty industrial processes from the largest energy consuming sectors were used as a basis for matching a similar number of energy conversion systems that are considered as candidate which can be made available by the 1985 to 2000 time period. The sectors considered included food, textiles, lumber, paper, chemicals, petroleum, glass, and primary metals. The energy conversion systems included steam and gas turbines, diesels, thermionics, stirling, closed cycle and steam injected gas turbines, and fuel cells. Fuels considered were coal, both coal and petroleum based residual and distillate liquid fuels, and low Btu gas obtained through the on site gasification of coal. Computer generated reports of the fuels consumption and savings, capital costs, economics and emissions of the cogeneration energy conversion systems (ECS's) heat and power matched to the individual industrial processes are presented. National fuel and emissions savings are also reported for each ECS assuming it alone is implemented. Two nocogeneration base cases are included: coal fired and residual fired process boilers.

  10. Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS). Volume 6: Computer data. Part 1: Coal-fired nocogeneration process boiler, section A

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knightly, W. F.

    1980-05-01

    About fifty industrial processes from the largest energy consuming sectors were used as a basis for matching a similar number of energy conversion systems that are considered as candidate which can be made available by the 1985 to 2000 time period. The sectors considered included food, textiles, lumber, paper, chemicals, petroleum, glass, and primary metals. The energy conversion systems included steam and gas turbines, diesels, thermionics, stirling, closed cycle and steam injected gas turbines, and fuel cells. Fuels considered were coal, both coal and petroleum based residual and distillate liquid fuels, and low Btu gas obtained through the on site gasification of coal. Computer generated reports of the fuels consumption and savings, capital costs, economics and emissions of the cogeneration energy conversion systems (ECS's) heat and power matched to the individual industrial processes are presented. National fuel and emissions savings are also reported for each ECS assuming it alone is implemented. Two nocogeneration base cases are included: coal fired and residual fired process boilers.

  11. Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS). Volume 6: Computer data. Part 1: Coal-fired nocogeneration process boiler, section B

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knightly, W. F.

    1980-05-01

    About fifty industrial processes from the largest energy consuming sectors were used as a basis for matching a similar number of energy conversion systems that are considered as candidate which can be made available by the 1985 to 2000 time period. The sectors considered included food, textiles, lumber, paper, chemicals, petroleum, glass, and primary metals. The energy conversion systems included steam and gas turbines, diesels, thermionics, stirling, closed cycle and steam injected gas turbines, and fuel cells. Fuels considered were coal, both coal and petroleum based residual and distillate liquid fuels, and low Btu gas obtained through the on site gasification of coal. Computer generated reports of the fuel consumption and savings, capital costs, economics and emissions of the cogeneration energy conversion systems (ECS's) heat and power matched to the individual industrial processes are presented. National fuel and emissions savings are also reported for each ECS assuming it alone is implemented. Two nocogeneration base cases are included: coal fired and residual fired process boilers.

  12. Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS). Volume 6: Computer data. Part 2: Residual-fired nocogeneration process boiler

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knightly, W. F.

    1980-05-01

    About fifty industrial processes from the largest energy consuming sectors were used as a basis for matching a similar number of energy conversion systems that are considered as candidate which can be made available by the 1985 to 2000 time period. The sectors considered included food, textiles, lumber, paper, chemicals, petroleum, glass, and primary metals. The energy conversion systems included steam and gas turbines, diesels, thermionics, stirling, closed cycle and steam injected gas turbines, and fuel cells. Fuels considered were coal, both coal and petroleum based residual and distillate liquid fuels, and low Btu gas obtained through the on site gasification of coal. Computer generated reports of the fuel consumption and savings, capital costs, economics and emissions of the cogeneration energy conversion systems (ECS's) heat and power matched to the individual industrial processes are presented. National fuel and emissions savings are also reported for each ECS assuming it alone is implemented. Two nocogeneration base cases are included: coal fired and residual fired process boilers.

  13. Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS). Volume 6: Computer data. Part 1: Coal-fired nocogeneration process boiler, section B

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knightly, W. F.

    1980-01-01

    About fifty industrial processes from the largest energy consuming sectors were used as a basis for matching a similar number of energy conversion systems that are considered as candidate which can be made available by the 1985 to 2000 time period. The sectors considered included food, textiles, lumber, paper, chemicals, petroleum, glass, and primary metals. The energy conversion systems included steam and gas turbines, diesels, thermionics, stirling, closed cycle and steam injected gas turbines, and fuel cells. Fuels considered were coal, both coal and petroleum based residual and distillate liquid fuels, and low Btu gas obtained through the on site gasification of coal. Computer generated reports of the fuel consumption and savings, capital costs, economics and emissions of the cogeneration energy conversion systems (ECS's) heat and power matched to the individual industrial processes are presented. National fuel and emissions savings are also reported for each ECS assuming it alone is implemented. Two nocogeneration base cases are included: coal fired and residual fired process boilers.

  14. Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS). Volume 6: Computer data. Part 2: Residual-fired nocogeneration process boiler

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knightly, W. F.

    1980-01-01

    About fifty industrial processes from the largest energy consuming sectors were used as a basis for matching a similar number of energy conversion systems that are considered as candidate which can be made available by the 1985 to 2000 time period. The sectors considered included food, textiles, lumber, paper, chemicals, petroleum, glass, and primary metals. The energy conversion systems included steam and gas turbines, diesels, thermionics, stirling, closed cycle and steam injected gas turbines, and fuel cells. Fuels considered were coal, both coal and petroleum based residual and distillate liquid fuels, and low Btu gas obtained through the on site gasification of coal. Computer generated reports of the fuel consumption and savings, capital costs, economics and emissions of the cogeneration energy conversion systems (ECS's) heat and power matched to the individual industrial processes are presented. National fuel and emissions savings are also reported for each ECS assuming it alone is implemented. Two nocogeneration base cases are included: coal fired and residual fired process boilers.

  15. Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Wunch, D.; Toon, G. C.; Sherlock, V.; Wennberg, P. O.

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

  16. Aeroelastic Model Structure Computation for Envelope Expansion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kukreja, Sunil L.

    2007-01-01

    Structure detection is a procedure for selecting a subset of candidate terms, from a full model description, that best describes the observed output. This is a necessary procedure to compute an efficient system description which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. Structure computation as a tool for black-box modeling may be of critical importance in the development of robust, parsimonious models for the flight-test community. Moreover, this approach may lead to efficient strategies for rapid envelope expansion that may save significant development time and costs. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of non-linear aeroelastic systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares with the addition of an l(Sub 1) penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional l(sub 2) minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudo-linear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. Applicability of this technique for model structure computation for the F/A-18 (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) Active Aeroelastic Wing project using flight test data is shown for several flight conditions (Mach numbers) by identifying a parsimonious system description with a high percent fit for cross-validated data.

  17. Aeroelastic Model Structure Computation for Envelope Expansion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kukreja, Sunil L.

    2007-01-01

    Structure detection is a procedure for selecting a subset of candidate terms, from a full model description, that best describes the observed output. This is a necessary procedure to compute an efficient system description which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. Structure computation as a tool for black-box modelling may be of critical importance in the development of robust, parsimonious models for the flight-test community. Moreover, this approach may lead to efficient strategies for rapid envelope expansion which may save significant development time and costs. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of nonlinear aeroelastic systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares by the addition of an l(sub 1) penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional 2 minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudolinear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. Applicability of this technique for model structure computation for the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing using flight test data is shown for several flight conditions (Mach numbers) by identifying a parsimonious system description with a high percent fit for cross-validated data.

  18. Solving stochastic epidemiological models using computer algebra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hincapie, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan

    2011-06-01

    Mathematical modeling in Epidemiology is an important tool to understand the ways under which the diseases are transmitted and controlled. The mathematical modeling can be implemented via deterministic or stochastic models. Deterministic models are based on short systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations and the stochastic models are based on very large systems of linear differential equations. Deterministic models admit complete, rigorous and automatic analysis of stability both local and global from which is possible to derive the algebraic expressions for the basic reproductive number and the corresponding epidemic thresholds using computer algebra software. Stochastic models are more difficult to treat and the analysis of their properties requires complicated considerations in statistical mathematics. In this work we propose to use computer algebra software with the aim to solve epidemic stochastic models such as the SIR model and the carrier-borne model. Specifically we use Maple to solve these stochastic models in the case of small groups and we obtain results that do not appear in standard textbooks or in the books updated on stochastic models in epidemiology. From our results we derive expressions which coincide with those obtained in the classical texts using advanced procedures in mathematical statistics. Our algorithms can be extended for other stochastic models in epidemiology and this shows the power of computer algebra software not only for analysis of deterministic models but also for the analysis of stochastic models. We also perform numerical simulations with our algebraic results and we made estimations for the basic parameters as the basic reproductive rate and the stochastic threshold theorem. We claim that our algorithms and results are important tools to control the diseases in a globalized world.

  19. Modelling the long term water yield impact of fire in Eucalypt forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lane, Patrick; Fiekema, Paul; Sherwin, Chris; Peel, Murray; Freebairn, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    Disturbance of forested catchments by fire, logging, or other natural or human induced events that alter the evapotranspiration regime may be a substantial threat to domestic, environmental and industrial water supplies. This study involves physically-based modelling of the long term changes in water yield from two wild fire affected catchments in north-eastern Victoria, Australia, and of fire and climate change scenarios in Melbourne's principal water supply catchment. The effect of scale, data availability and quality, and of forest species parameterisation are explored. The modelling demonstrates the importance of precipitation inputs, with Nash and Sutcliffe Coefficients of Efficiency of predicted versus observed monthly flows increasing from 0.5 to 0.8 with a higher density of rainfall stations, and where forest types are well parameterised. Total predicted flow volumes for the calibrations were within 1% of the observed for the Mitta Mitta River catchment and <4 % for the Thomson River, but almost -10% for the less well parameterised Tambo River. Despite the issues of data availability simulations demonstrated the potential for significant impacts to water supply in SE Australia from wildfire and climate change. For example, for the catchments modelled the moderate climate change impact on water yield was more pronounced than the worst fire scenario. Both modelled cases resulted in long term water yield declines exceeding 20%, with the climate change impact nearing 30%. A simulation using observed data for the first four post-fire years at the Mitta Mitta River catchment showed Macaque was able to accurately predict total flow.

  20. Exploring Model Error through Post-processing and an Ensemble Kalman Filter on Fire Weather Days

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, Michael J.

    The proliferation of coupling atmospheric ensemble data to models in other related fields requires a priori knowledge of atmospheric ensemble biases specific to the desired application. In that spirit, this dissertation focuses on elucidating atmospheric ensemble model bias and error through a variety of different methods specific to fire weather days (FWDs) over the Northeast United States (NEUS). Other than a handful of studies that use models to predict fire indices for single fire seasons (Molders 2008, Simpson et al. 2014), an extensive exploration of model performance specific to FWDs has not been attempted. Two unique definitions for FWDs are proposed; one that uses pre-existing fire indices (FWD1) and another from a new statistical fire weather index (FWD2) relating fire occurrence and near-surface meteorological observations. Ensemble model verification reveals FWDs to have warmer (> 1 K), moister (~ 0.4 g kg-1) and less windy (~ 1 m s-1) biases than the climatological average for both FWD1 and FWD2. These biases are not restricted to the near surface but exist through the entirety of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Furthermore, post-processing methods are more effective when previous FWDs are incorporated into the statistical training, suggesting that model bias could be related to the synoptic flow pattern. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of data assimilation during a period of extensive FWDs in April 2012. Model biases develop rapidly on FWDs, consistent with the FWD1 and FWD2 verification. However, the EnKF is effective at removing most biases for temperature, wind speed and specific humidity. Potential sources of error in the parameterized physics of the PBL are explored by rerunning the EnKF with simultaneous state and parameter estimation (SSPE) for two relevant parameters within the ACM2 PBL scheme. SSPE helps to reduce the cool temperature bias near the surface on FWDs, with the variability in parameter

  1. Computational modeling of laser-tissue interaction

    SciTech Connect

    London, R.A.; Amendt, P.; Bailey, D.S.; Eder, D.C.; Maitland, D.J.; Glinsky, M.E.; Strauss, M.; Zimmerman, G.B.

    1996-05-01

    Computational modeling can play an important role both in designing laser-tissue interaction experiments and in understanding the underlying mechanisms. This can lead to more rapid and less expensive development if new procedures and instruments, and a better understanding of their operation. We have recently directed computer programs and associated expertise developed over many years to model high intensity laser-matter interactions for fusion research towards laser-tissue interaction problem. A program called LATIS is being developed to specifically treat laser-tissue interaction phenomena, such as highly scattering light transport, thermal coagulation, and hydrodynamic motion.

  2. Modeling of ash deposition in the convective pass of a coal-fired boiler

    SciTech Connect

    Allan, S.E.; Erickson, T.A.; McCollor, D.P.

    1996-12-31

    The Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC) has developed a personal computer (PC)-based model, FOULER, to predict convective pass fouling deposit formation in coal-fired boilers. This program is used to evaluate the effects of coal quality and operational changes on both high- and low-temperature fouling. In addition, the effects of coal cleaning, blending, and switching options can be evaluated. FOULER will be incorporated in the Coal Quality Expert (CQE) software project. CQE is a comprehensive, PC-based program that can be used to evaluate various potential coal cleaning, blending, and switching options to reduce power plant emissions while minimizing generation costs. The model is based on theory and a combination of laboratory-, pilot-, and field-scale test data. The code encompasses the hanging pendant, superheater, reheater, and economizer regions of the convective pass. The code predicts growth and removal of ash deposition through the interaction of several submodels: (1) Deposit Growth, (2) Deposit Strength Development, (3) Thermal Properties, (4) Deposit Removal, and (5) Sootblower Effectiveness. The deposit removal mechanisms included are thermal shock, gravity shedding, and sootblowing. The required inputs for the code include ash size and composition, boiler parameters, and operation conditions. Input parameters can be entered into the code directly or they can be predicted by other codes such as MMT (mineral matter transformation code) and CQE heat-transfer module. The submodels interact to produce outputs, based on a time basis, of the deposit mass, strength, resistivity, and removal rates. This report describes the fouling submodels, the rationale used in these submodels, and a description of how the experimental data were utilized to validate the algorithms.

  3. Computation Modeling and Assessment of Nanocoatings for Ultra Supercritical Boilers

    SciTech Connect

    J. Shingledecker; D. Gandy; N. Cheruvu; R. Wei; K. Chan

    2011-06-21

    Forced outages and boiler unavailability of coal-fired fossil plants is most often caused by fire-side corrosion of boiler waterwalls and tubing. Reliable coatings are required for Ultrasupercritical (USC) application to mitigate corrosion since these boilers will operate at a much higher temperatures and pressures than in supercritical (565 C {at} 24 MPa) boilers. Computational modeling efforts have been undertaken to design and assess potential Fe-Cr-Ni-Al systems to produce stable nanocrystalline coatings that form a protective, continuous scale of either Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} or Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}. The computational modeling results identified a new series of Fe-25Cr-40Ni with or without 10 wt.% Al nanocrystalline coatings that maintain long-term stability by forming a diffusion barrier layer at the coating/substrate interface. The computational modeling predictions of microstructure, formation of continuous Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} scale, inward Al diffusion, grain growth, and sintering behavior were validated with experimental results. Advanced coatings, such as MCrAl (where M is Fe, Ni, or Co) nanocrystalline coatings, have been processed using different magnetron sputtering deposition techniques. Several coating trials were performed and among the processing methods evaluated, the DC pulsed magnetron sputtering technique produced the best quality coating with a minimum number of shallow defects and the results of multiple deposition trials showed that the process is repeatable. scale, inward Al diffusion, grain growth, and sintering behavior were validated with experimental results. The cyclic oxidation test results revealed that the nanocrystalline coatings offer better oxidation resistance, in terms of weight loss, localized oxidation, and formation of mixed oxides in the Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} scale, than widely used MCrAlY coatings. However, the ultra-fine grain structure in these coatings, consistent with the computational model predictions, resulted in accelerated Al

  4. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  5. Computer modeling of commercial refrigerated warehouse facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Nicoulin, C.V.; Jacobs, P.C.; Tory, S.

    1997-07-01

    The use of computer models to simulate the energy performance of large commercial refrigeration systems typically found in food processing facilities is an area of engineering practice that has seen little development to date. Current techniques employed in predicting energy consumption by such systems have focused on temperature bin methods of analysis. Existing simulation tools such as DOE2 are designed to model commercial buildings and grocery store refrigeration systems. The HVAC and Refrigeration system performance models in these simulations tools model equipment common to commercial buildings and groceries, and respond to energy-efficiency measures likely to be applied to these building types. The applicability of traditional building energy simulation tools to model refrigerated warehouse performance and analyze energy-saving options is limited. The paper will present the results of modeling work undertaken to evaluate energy savings resulting from incentives offered by a California utility to its Refrigerated Warehouse Program participants. The TRNSYS general-purpose transient simulation model was used to predict facility performance and estimate program savings. Custom TRNSYS components were developed to address modeling issues specific to refrigerated warehouse systems, including warehouse loading door infiltration calculations, an evaporator model, single-state and multi-stage compressor models, evaporative condenser models, and defrost energy requirements. The main focus of the paper will be on the modeling approach. The results from the computer simulations, along with overall program impact evaluation results, will also be presented.

  6. Computational Spectrum of Agent Model Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Perumalla, Kalyan S

    2010-01-01

    The study of human social behavioral systems is finding renewed interest in military, homeland security and other applications. Simulation is the most generally applied approach to studying complex scenarios in such systems. Here, we outline some of the important considerations that underlie the computational aspects of simulation-based study of human social systems. The fundamental imprecision underlying questions and answers in social science makes it necessary to carefully distinguish among different simulation problem classes and to identify the most pertinent set of computational dimensions associated with those classes. We identify a few such classes and present their computational implications. The focus is then shifted to the most challenging combinations in the computational spectrum, namely, large-scale entity counts at moderate to high levels of fidelity. Recent developments in furthering the state-of-the-art in these challenging cases are outlined. A case study of large-scale agent simulation is provided in simulating large numbers (millions) of social entities at real-time speeds on inexpensive hardware. Recent computational results are identified that highlight the potential of modern high-end computing platforms to push the envelope with respect to speed, scale and fidelity of social system simulations. Finally, the problem of shielding the modeler or domain expert from the complex computational aspects is discussed and a few potential solution approaches are identified.

  7. Multiplatform inversion of the 2013 Rim Fire smoke emissions using regional-scale modeling: important nocturnal fire activity, air quality, and climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saide, P. E.; Peterson, D. A.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Ziemba, L. D.; Anderson, B.; Diskin, G. S.; Sachse, G. W.; Hair, J. W.; Butler, C. F.; Fenn, M. A.; Jimenez, J. L.; Campuzano Jost, P.; Dibb, J. E.; Yokelson, R. J.; Toon, B.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2014-12-01

    Large wildfire events are increasingly recognized for their adverse effects on air quality and visibility, thus providing motivation for improving smoke emission estimates. The Rim Fire, one of the largest events in California's history, produced a large smoke plume that was sampled by the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) DC-8 aircraft with a full suite of in-situ and remote sensing measurements on 26-27 August 2013. We developed an inversion methodology which uses the WRF-Chem modeling system to constrain hourly fire emissions, using as initial estimates the NASA Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED). This method differs from the commonly performed top-down estimates that constrain daily (or longer time scale) emissions. The inversion method is able to simultaneously improve the model fit to various SEAC4RS airborne measurements (e.g., organic aerosol, carbon monoxide (CO), aerosol extinction), ground based measurements (e.g., AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD), CO), and satellite data (MODIS AOD) by modifying fire emissions and utilizing the information content of all these measurements. Preliminary results show that constrained emissions for a 6 day period following the largest fire growth are a factor 2-4 higher than the initial top-down estimates. Moreover, there is a tendency to increase nocturnal emissions by factors sometimes larger than 20, indicating that vigorous fire activity continued during the night. This deviation from a typical diurnal cycle is confirmed using geostationary satellite data. The constrained emissions also have a larger day-to-day variability than the initial emissions and correlate better to daily area burned estimates as observed by airborne infrared measurements (NIROPS). Experiments with the assimilation system show that performing the inversion using only satellite AOD data produces much smaller correction factors than when using all available data

  8. Computational Process Modeling for Additive Manufacturing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bagg, Stacey; Zhang, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Computational Process and Material Modeling of Powder Bed additive manufacturing of IN 718. Optimize material build parameters with reduced time and cost through modeling. Increase understanding of build properties. Increase reliability of builds. Decrease time to adoption of process for critical hardware. Potential to decrease post-build heat treatments. Conduct single-track and coupon builds at various build parameters. Record build parameter information and QM Meltpool data. Refine Applied Optimization powder bed AM process model using data. Report thermal modeling results. Conduct metallography of build samples. Calibrate STK models using metallography findings. Run STK models using AO thermal profiles and report STK modeling results. Validate modeling with additional build. Photodiode Intensity measurements highly linear with power input. Melt Pool Intensity highly correlated to Melt Pool Size. Melt Pool size and intensity increase with power. Applied Optimization will use data to develop powder bed additive manufacturing process model.

  9. Assessing the Firing Properties of the Electrically Stimulated Auditory Nerve Using a Convolution Model.

    PubMed

    Strahl, Stefan B; Ramekers, Dyan; Nagelkerke, Marjolijn M B; Schwarz, Konrad E; Spitzer, Philipp; Klis, Sjaak F L; Grolman, Wilko; Versnel, Huib

    2016-01-01

    The electrically evoked compound action potential (eCAP) is a routinely performed measure of the auditory nerve in cochlear implant users. Using a convolution model of the eCAP, additional information about the neural firing properties can be obtained, which may provide relevant information about the health of the auditory nerve. In this study, guinea pigs with various degrees of nerve degeneration were used to directly relate firing properties to nerve histology. The same convolution model was applied on human eCAPs to examine similarities and ultimately to examine its clinical applicability. For most eCAPs, the estimated nerve firing probability was bimodal and could be parameterised by two Gaussian distributions with an average latency difference of 0.4 ms. The ratio of the scaling factors of the late and early component increased with neural degeneration in the guinea pig. This ratio decreased with stimulation intensity in humans. The latency of the early component decreased with neural degeneration in the guinea pig. Indirectly, this was observed in humans as well, assuming that the cochlear base exhibits more neural degeneration than the apex. Differences between guinea pigs and humans were observed, among other parameters, in the width of the early component: very robust in guinea pig, and dependent on stimulation intensity and cochlear region in humans. We conclude that the deconvolution of the eCAP is a valuable addition to existing analyses, in particular as it reveals two separate firing components in the auditory nerve. PMID:27080655

  10. Hippocampal neuron firing and local field potentials in the in vitro 4-aminopyridine epilepsy model

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jing; Queenan, Bridget N.; Avoli, Massimo; Vicini, Stefano; Dzakpasu, Rhonda

    2012-01-01

    Excessive synchronous neuronal activity is a defining feature of epileptic activity. We previously characterized the properties of distinct glutamatergic and GABAergic transmission-dependent synchronous epileptiform discharges in mouse hippocampal slices using the 4-aminopyridine model of epilepsy. In the present study, we sought to identify the specific hippocampal neuronal populations that initiate and underlie these local field potentials (LFPs). A perforated multielectrode array was used to simultaneously record multiunit action potential firing and LFPs during spontaneous epileptiform activity. LFPs had distinct components based on the initiation site, extent of propagation, and pharmacological sensitivity. Individual units, located in different hippocampal subregions, fired action potentials during these LFPs. A specific neuron subgroup generated sustained action potential firing throughout the various components of the LFPs. The activity of this subgroup preceded the LFPs observed in the presence of antagonists of ionotropic glutamatergic synaptic transmission. In the absence of ionotropic glutamatergic and GABAergic transmission, LFPs disappeared, but units with shorter spike duration and high basal firing rates were still active. These spontaneously active units had an increased level of activity during LFPs and consistently preceded all LFPs recorded before blockade of synaptic transmission. Our findings reveal that neuronal subpopulations with interneuron properties are likely responsible for initiating synchronous activity in an in vitro model of epileptiform discharges. PMID:22972961

  11. Assessing the Firing Properties of the Electrically Stimulated Auditory Nerve Using a Convolution Model.

    PubMed

    Strahl, Stefan B; Ramekers, Dyan; Nagelkerke, Marjolijn M B; Schwarz, Konrad E; Spitzer, Philipp; Klis, Sjaak F L; Grolman, Wilko; Versnel, Huib

    2016-01-01

    The electrically evoked compound action potential (eCAP) is a routinely performed measure of the auditory nerve in cochlear implant users. Using a convolution model of the eCAP, additional information about the neural firing properties can be obtained, which may provide relevant information about the health of the auditory nerve. In this study, guinea pigs with various degrees of nerve degeneration were used to directly relate firing properties to nerve histology. The same convolution model was applied on human eCAPs to examine similarities and ultimately to examine its clinical applicability. For most eCAPs, the estimated nerve firing probability was bimodal and could be parameterised by two Gaussian distributions with an average latency difference of 0.4 ms. The ratio of the scaling factors of the late and early component increased with neural degeneration in the guinea pig. This ratio decreased with stimulation intensity in humans. The latency of the early component decreased with neural degeneration in the guinea pig. Indirectly, this was observed in humans as well, assuming that the cochlear base exhibits more neural degeneration than the apex. Differences between guinea pigs and humans were observed, among other parameters, in the width of the early component: very robust in guinea pig, and dependent on stimulation intensity and cochlear region in humans. We conclude that the deconvolution of the eCAP is a valuable addition to existing analyses, in particular as it reveals two separate firing components in the auditory nerve.

  12. Modeling of integrated environmental control systems for coal-fired power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, E.S.

    1988-10-01

    This is the fourth quarterly report of DOE Contract No. DE-AC22-87PC79864, entitled Modeling of Integrated Environmental Control Systems for Coal-Fired Power Plants.'' This report summarizes accomplishments during the period July 1, 1988 to September 30, 1988. Our efforts during the last quarter focused primarily on the completion, testing and documentation of the NO{sub x}SO process model. The sections below present the details of these developments.

  13. Long-term effects of fire frequency on carbon storage and productivity of boreal forests: a modeling study.

    PubMed

    Thornley, J H M; Cannell, M G R

    2004-07-01

    Climate change is predicted to shorten the fire interval in boreal forests. Many studies have recorded positive effects of fire on forest growth over a few decades, but few have modeled the long-term effects of the loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. We used a process-based, dynamic, forest ecosystem model, which couples the carbon, nitrogen and water cycles, to simulate the effects of fire frequency on coniferous forests in the climate of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan. The model was calibrated to simulate observed forest properties. The model predicted rapid short-term recovery of net primary productivity (NPP) after fire, but in the long term, supported the hypotheses that (1) current NPP and carbon content of boreal forests are lower than they would be without periodic fire, and (2) any increase in fire frequency in the future will tend to lower NPP and carbon storage. Lower long-term NPP and carbon storage were attributable to (1) loss of carbon on combustion, equal to about 20% of NPP over a 100-200 year fire cycle, (2) loss of nitrogen by volatilization in fire, equal to about 3-4 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) over a 100-200 year fire cycle, and (3) the fact that the normal fire cycle is much shorter than the time taken for the forest (especially the soil) to reach an equilibrium carbon and nitrogen content. It was estimated that a shift in fire frequency from 200 to 100 years over 1000 Mha of boreal forest would release an average of about 0.1 Gt C year(-1) over many centuries.

  14. Enhanced absorption cycle computer model. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, G.; Wilk, M.

    1993-09-01

    Absorption heat pumps have received renewed and increasing attention in the past two decades. The rising cost of electricity has made the particular features of this heat-powered cycle attractive for both residential and industrial applications. Solar-powered absorption chillers, gas-fired domestic heat pumps, and waste-heat-powered industrial temperatures boosters are a few of the applications recently subjected to intensive research and development. The absorption heat pump research community has begun to search for both advanced cycles in various multistage configurations and new working fluid combinations with potential for enhanced performance and reliability. The development of working absorptions systems has created a need for reliable and effective system simulations. A computer code has been developed for simulation of absorption systems at steady state in a flexible and modular form, making it possible to investigate various cycle configurations with different working fluids. The code is based on unit subroutines containing the governing equations for the system`s components and property subroutines containing thermodynamic properties of the working fluids. The user conveys to the computer an image of his cycle by specifying the different subunits and their interconnections. Based on this information, the program calculates the temperature, flow rate, concentration, pressure, and vapor fraction at each state point in the system, and the heat duty at each unit, from which the coefficient of performance (COP) may be determined. This report describes the code and its operation, including improvements introduced into the present version. Simulation results are described for LiBr-H{sub 2}O triple-effect cycles, LiCl-H{sub 2}O solar-powered open absorption cycles, and NH{sub 3}-H{sub 2}O single-effect and generator-absorber heat exchange cycles. An appendix contains the User`s Manual.

  15. Use of Video Modeling to Teach Extinguishing of Cooking Related Fires to Individuals with Moderate Intellectual Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mechling, Linda C.; Gast, David L.; Gustafson, Melissa R.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluated the effectiveness of video modeling to teach fire extinguishing behaviors to three young adults with moderate intellectual disabilities. A multiple probe design across three fire extinguishing behaviors and replicated across three students was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the video-based program. Results indicate that…

  16. Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A.D.; O'Neill, K. P.; Harden, J.W.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Yarie, J.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO2, climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce ecosystem in Canada, the age-dependent pattern of the simulated vegetation carbon was verified with inventory data on aboveground growth of Alaskan black spruce forests, and the model was applied to a postfire chronosequence in interior Alaska. The comparison between the simulated soil temperature and field-based estimates during the growing season (May to September) of 1997 revealed that the model was able to accurately simulate monthly temperatures at 10 cm (R > 0.93) for control and burned stands of the fire chronosequence. Similarly, the simulated and field-based estimates of soil respiration for control and burned stands were correlated (R = 0.84 and 0.74 for control and burned stands, respectively). The simulated and observed decadal to century-scale dynamics of soil temperature and carbon dynamics, which are represented by mean monthly values of these variables during the growing season, were correlated among stands (R = 0.93 and 0.71 for soil temperature at 20- and 10-cm depths, R = 0.95 and 0.91 for soil respiration and soil carbon, respectively). Sensitivity analyses indicate that along with differences in fire and climate history a number of other factors influence the response of carbon dynamics to fire disturbance. These factors include nitrogen fixation, the growth of moss, changes in the depth of the organic layer, soil drainage, and fire severity.

  17. Measurements of a 1/4-scale model of an explosives firing chamber

    SciTech Connect

    Pastrnak, J.W.; Baker, C.F.; Simmons, L.F.

    1995-01-27

    In anticipation of increasingly stringent environmental regulations, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) proposes to construct a 60-kg firing chamber to provide blast-effects containment for most of its open-air, high-explosive, firing operations. Even though these operations are within current environmental limits, containment of the blast effects and hazardous debris will further drastically reduce emissions to the environment and minimize the generated hazardous waste. The major design consideration of such a chamber is its overall structural dynamic response in terms of long-term containment of all blast effects from repeated internal detonations of high explosives. Another concern is how much other portions of the facility outside the firing chamber must be hardened to ensure personnel protection in the event of an accidental detonation while the chamber door is open. To assess these concerns, a 1/4-scale replica model of the planned contained firing chamber was designed, constructed, and tested with scaled explosive charges ranging from 25 to 125% of the operational explosives limit of 60 kg. From 16 detonations of high explosives, 880 resulting strains, blast pressures, and temperatures within the model were measured to provide information for the final design. Factors of safety for dynamic yield of the firing chamber structure were calculated and compared to the design criterion of totally elastic response. The rectangular, reinforced-concrete chamber model exhibited a lightly damped vibrational response that placed the structure in alternating cycles of tension and compression. During compression, both the reinforcing steel and the concrete remained elastic.

  18. Sodium spray and jet fire model development within the CONTAIN-LMR code

    SciTech Connect

    Scholtyssek, W.; Murata, K.K.

    1993-12-31

    An assessment was made of the sodium spray fire model implemented in the CONTAIN code. The original droplet burn model, which was based on the NACOM code, was improved in several aspects, especially concerning evaluation of the droplet burning rate, reaction chemistry and heat balance, spray geometry and droplet motion, and consistency with CONTAIN standards of gas property evaluation. An additional droplet burning model based on a proposal by Krolikowski was made available to include the effect of the chemical equilibrium conditions at the flame temperature. The models were validated against single-droplet burn experiments as well as spray and jet fire experiments. Reasonable agreement was found between the two burn models and experimental data. When the gas temperature in the burning compartment reaches high values, the Krolikowski model seems to be preferable. Critical parameters for spray fire evaluation were found to be the spray characterization, especially the droplet size, which largely determines the burning efficiency, and heat transfer conditions at the interface between the atmosphere and structures, which controls the thermal hydraulic behavior in the burn compartment.

  19. An Integrated Model for Identifying Linkages Between the Management of Fuel Treatments, Fire and Ecosystem Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bart, R. R.; Anderson, S.; Moritz, M.; Plantinga, A.; Tague, C.

    2015-12-01

    Vegetation fuel treatments (e.g. thinning, prescribed burning) are a frequent tool for managing fire-prone landscapes. However, predicting how fuel treatments may affect future wildfire risk and associated ecosystem services, such as forest water availability and streamflow, remains a challenge. This challenge is in part due to the large range of conditions under which fuel treatments may be implemented, as response is likely to vary with species type, rates of vegetation regrowth, meteorological conditions and physiographic properties of the treated site. It is also due to insufficient understanding of how social factors such as political pressure, public demands and economic constraints affect fuel management decisions. To examine the feedbacks between ecological and social dimensions of fuel treatments, we present an integrated model that links a biophysical model that simulates vegetation and hydrology (RHESSys), a fire spread model (WMFire) and an empirical fuel treatment model that accounts for agency decision-making. We use this model to investigate how management decisions affect landscape fuel loads, which in turn affect fire severity and ecosystem services, which feedback to management decisions on fuel treatments. We hypothesize that this latter effect will be driven by salience theory, which predicts that fuel treatments are more likely to occur following major wildfire events. The integrated model provides a flexible framework for answering novel questions about fuel treatments that span social and ecological domains, areas that have previously been treated separately.

  20. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE - Part 2: Carbon emissions and the role of fires in the global carbon balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Cadule, P.; Thonicke, K.; van Leeuwen, T. T.

    2015-05-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from wild and anthropogenic fires return the carbon absorbed by plants to the atmosphere, and decrease the sequestration of carbon by land ecosystems. Future climate warming will likely increase the frequency of fire-triggering drought, so that the future terrestrial carbon uptake will depend on how fires respond to altered climate variation. In this study, we modelled the role of fires in the global terrestrial carbon balance for 1901-2012, using the ORCHIDEE global vegetation model equipped with the SPITFIRE model. We conducted two simulations with and without the fire module being activated, using a static land cover. The simulated global fire carbon emissions for 1997-2009 are 2.1 Pg C yr-1, which is close to the 2.0 Pg C yr-1 as estimated by GFED3.1. The simulated land carbon uptake after accounting for emissions for 2003-2012 is 3.1 Pg C yr-1, which is within the uncertainty of the residual carbon sink estimation (2.8 ± 0.8 Pg C yr-1). Fires are found to reduce the terrestrial carbon uptake by 0.32 Pg C yr-1 over 1901-2012, or 20% of the total carbon sink in a world without fire. The fire-induced land sink reduction (SRfire) is significantly correlated with climate variability, with larger sink reduction occurring in warm and dry years, in particular during El Niño events. Our results suggest a "fire respiration partial compensation". During the 10 lowest SRfire years (SRfire = 0.17 Pg C yr-1), fires mainly compensate for the heterotrophic respiration that would occur in a world without fire. By contrast, during the 10 highest SRfire fire years (SRfire = 0.49 Pg C yr-1), fire emissions far exceed their respiration partial compensation and create a larger reduction in terrestrial carbon uptake. Our findings have important implications for the future role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance, because the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon will be diminished by future climate change characterized by increased

  1. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE - Part 2: Carbon emissions and the role of fires in the global carbon balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Cadule, P.; Thonicke, K.; van Leeuwen, T. T.

    2014-12-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from wild and anthropogenic fires return the carbon absorbed by plants to the atmosphere, and decrease the sequestration of carbon by land ecosystems. Future climate warming will likely increase the frequency of fire-triggering drought; so that the future terrestrial carbon uptake will depend on how fires respond to altered climate variation. In this study, we modelled the role of fires in the global terrestrial carbon balance for 1901-2012, using the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE equipped with the SPITFIRE model. We conducted two simulations with and without the fire module being activated, with a static land cover. The simulated global fire carbon emissions for 1997-2009 are 2.1 Pg C yr-1, which is close to the 2.0 Pg C yr-1 as given by the GFED3.1 data. The simulated land carbon uptake after accounting for emissions for 2003-2012 is 3.1Pg C yr-1, within the uncertainty of the residual carbon sink estimation (2.8 ± 0.8 Pg C yr-1). Fires are found to reduce the terrestrial carbon uptake by 0.32 Pg C yr-1 over 1901-2012, that is 20% of the total carbon sink in a world without fire. The fire-induced land sink reduction (SRfire) is significantly correlated with climate variability, with larger sink reduction occurring in warm and dry years, in particular during El Niño events. Our results suggest a symmetrical "respiration equivalence" by fires. During the ten lowest SRfire years (SRfire = 0.17 Pg C yr-1), fires mainly compensate the heterotrophic respiration that would happen if no fires had occurred. By contrast, during the ten highest SRfire fire years (SRfire = 0.49 Pg C yr-1), fire emissions exceed their "respiration equivalence" and create a substantial reduction in terrestrial carbon uptake. Our finding has important implication for the future role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance, because the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon will be diminished by future climate change characterized by increased

  2. Integrating interactive computational modeling in biology curricula.

    PubMed

    Helikar, Tomáš; Cutucache, Christine E; Dahlquist, Lauren M; Herek, Tyler A; Larson, Joshua J; Rogers, Jim A

    2015-03-01

    While the use of computer tools to simulate complex processes such as computer circuits is normal practice in fields like engineering, the majority of life sciences/biological sciences courses continue to rely on the traditional textbook and memorization approach. To address this issue, we explored the use of the Cell Collective platform as a novel, interac