Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard)

PubMed Central

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-01

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

DOE PAGES

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; ...

2016-01-11

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

PubMed Central

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

2016-01-01

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Eric A.

2012-06-01

The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N2O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N2O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges.

Signature of present and projected climate change at an urban scale: The case of Addis Ababa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsiso, Bisrat Kifle; Mengistu Tsidu, Gizaw; Stoffberg, Gerrit Hendrik

2018-06-01

Understanding climate change and variability at an urban scale is essential for water resource management, land use planning, development of adaption plans, mitigation of air and water pollution. However, there are serious challenges to meet these goals due to unavailability of observed and/or simulated high resolution spatial and temporal climate data. The statistical downscaling of general circulation climate model, for instance, is usually driven by sparse observational data hindering the use of downscaled data to investigate urban scale climate variability and change in the past. Recently, these challenges are partly resolved by concerted international effort to produce global and high spatial resolution climate data. In this study, the 1 km2 high resolution NIMR-HadGEM2-AO simulations for future projections under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios and gridded observations provided by Worldclim data center are used to assess changes in rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature expected under the two scenarios over Addis Ababa city. The gridded 1 km2 observational data set for the base period (1950-2000) is compared to observation from a meteorological station in the city in order to assess its quality for use as a reference (baseline) data. The comparison revealed that the data set has a very good quality. The rainfall anomalies under RCPs scenarios are wet in the 2030s (2020-2039), 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099). Both minimum and maximum temperature anomalies under RCPs are successively getting warmer during these periods. Thus, the projected changes under RCPs scenarios show a general increase in rainfall and temperatures with strong variabilities in rainfall during rainy season implying level of difficulty in water resource use and management as well as land use planning and management.

Prediction of future methane emission from irrigated rice paddies in central Thailand under different water management practices.

PubMed

Minamikawa, Kazunori; Fumoto, Tamon; Iizumi, Toshichika; Cha-Un, Nittaya; Pimple, Uday; Nishimori, Motoki; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo

2016-10-01

There is concern about positive feedbacks between climate change and methane (CH4) emission from rice paddies. However, appropriate water management may mitigate the problem. We tested this hypothesis at six field sites in central Thailand, where the irrigated area is rapidly increasing. We used DNDC-Rice, a process-based biogeochemistry model adjusted based on rice growth data at each site to simulate CH4 emission from a rice-rice double cropping system from 2001 to 2060. Future climate change scenarios consisting of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and seven global climate models were generated by statistical downscaling. We then simulated CH4 emission in three water management practices: continuous flooding (CF), single aeration (SA), and multiple aeration (MA). The adjusted model reproduced the observed rice yield and CH4 emission well at each site. The simulated CH4 emissions in CF from 2051 to 2060 were 5.3 to 7.8%, 9.6 to 16.0%, 7.3 to 18.0%, and 13.6 to 19.0% higher than those from 2001 to 2010 in RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, at the six sites. Regionally, SA and MA mitigated CH4 emission by 21.9 to 22.9% and 53.5 to 55.2%, respectively, relative to CF among the four RCPs. These mitigation potentials by SA and MA were comparable to those from 2001 to 2010. Our results indicate that climate change in the next several decades will not attenuate the quantitative effect of water management practices on mitigating CH4 emission from irrigated rice paddies in central Thailand. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo

2018-03-01

Projections of drought hazard ( dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021-2050) and late-century (2071-2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971-2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.

Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-05-01

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

Underestimated interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yongjian; Song, Lianchun; Xiao, Ying; Du, Liangmin

2018-02-01

This study evaluates the performance of climate models in simulating the climatological mean and interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to the observation, the interannual variability of EASR during 1979-2005 is underestimated by the CMIP5 with a range of 0.86 16.08%. Based on bias correction of CMIP5 simulations with historical data, the reliability of future projections will be enhanced. The corrected EASR under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 increases by 5.6 and 7.5% during 2081-2100 relative to the baseline of 1986-2005, respectively. After correction, the areas with both negative and positive anomalies decrease, which are mainly located in the South China Sea and central China, and southern China and west of the Philippines, separately. In comparison to the baseline, the interannual variability of EASR increases by 20.8% under RCP4.5 but 26.2% under RCP8.5 in 2006-2100, which is underestimated by 10.7 and 11.1% under both RCPs in the original CMIP5 simulation. Compared with the mean precipitation, the interannual variability of EASR is notably larger under global warming. Thus, the probabilities of floods and droughts may increase in the future.

Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

2016-01-01

Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey

2014-05-01

Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water were not limiting.

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in RCP-like scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-04-01

Estimation of future emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols from human activities is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), however, all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented in the coming decades. In this study, we therefore explore the consequences of four alternative emission scenarios generated using the IMAGE integrated assessment model following the methods used to generate the RCPs. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W/m2 and 6.0 W/m2 (the high air pollution variants assume no improvement in emission factors, representing a hypothetical upper end of emission levels). Analysis using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 shows that climate mitigation and air pollution control policy variants studied here have similar large-scale effects on the concentrations of ozone and black carbon; the impact of climate policy, however, has a stronger impact on sulphate concentrations. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate already in 2020, and on the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other at the global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W/m2 in the 6.0 W/m2 scenario and -0.16 W/m2 in the 2.6 W/m2 scenario.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

PubMed Central

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L.; Clark, Douglas B.; Arnell, Nigel W.; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M.; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N.; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M.; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty. PMID:24344266

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.

PubMed

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L; Clark, Douglas B; Arnell, Nigel W; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehlen, M.; Séférian, R.; Jones, D. O. B.; Roy, T.; Roth, R.; Barry, J.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J. P.; Heinze, C.; Joos, F.; Orr, J. C.; Resplandy, L.; Segschneider, J.; Tjiputra, J.

2014-12-01

This study aims to evaluate the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding -0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environments. We report on major pH reductions over the deep North Atlantic seafloor (depth >500 m) and at important deep-sea features, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100, and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5, pH reductions exceeding -0.2 (-0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~8% (3%) of seamounts - including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity, implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation.

Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate.

PubMed

Kibret, Solomon; Lautze, Jonathan; McCartney, Matthew; Nhamo, Luxon; Wilson, G Glenn

2016-09-05

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has embarked on a new era of dam building to improve food security and promote economic development. Nonetheless, the future impacts of dams on malaria transmission are poorly understood and seldom investigated in the context of climate and demographic change. The distribution of malaria in the vicinity of 1268 existing dams in SSA was mapped under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Population projections and malaria incidence estimates were used to compute population at risk of malaria in both RCPs. Assuming no change in socio-economic interventions that may mitigate impacts, the change in malaria stability and malaria burden in the vicinity of the dams was calculated for the two RCPs through to the 2080s. Results were compared against the 2010 baseline. The annual number of malaria cases associated with dams and climate change was determined for each of the RCPs. The number of dams located in malarious areas is projected to increase in both RCPs. Population growth will add to the risk of transmission. The population at risk of malaria around existing dams and associated reservoirs, is estimated to increase from 15 million in 2010 to 21-23 million in the 2020s, 25-26 million in the 2050s and 28-29 million in the 2080s, depending on RCP. The number of malaria cases associated with dams in malarious areas is expected to increase from 1.1 million in 2010 to 1.2-1.6 million in the 2020s, 2.1-3.0 million in the 2050s and 2.4-3.0 million in the 2080s depending on RCP. The number of cases will always be higher in RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6. In the absence of changes in other factors that affect transmission (e.g., socio-economic), the impact of dams on malaria in SSA will be significantly exacerbated by climate change and increases in population. Areas without malaria transmission at present, which will transition to regions of unstable transmission, may be worst affected. Modifying conventional water management frameworks to improve malaria control, holds the potential to mitigate some of this increase and should be more actively implemented.

Statistical downscaling of rainfall under transitional climate in Limbang River Basin by using SDSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahir, T.; Hashim, A. M.; Yusof, K. W.

2018-04-01

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has affected hundreds of people around the globe. In transitional climatic patterns, it is essential to compute the severity of rainfall in the regions prone to hydro-meteorological disasters. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to assess the severity of rainfall under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from Global Climate Model data of CanESM2 in Limbang River basin. Furthermore, the objective is to check the capability of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in the tropical region. The historical data of nine weather stations were used for the period of 30 years (1976 - 2005) and Global Climate Model data of CanESM2 under RCPs of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period of 2071-2100. The model was calibrated for the period of 1976-1995 and validated for the period of 1996-2005. After successful calibration and validation of SDSM, the future rainfall was simulated separately for all the three scenarios of RCPs. The obtained results have shown the values of R2 and RMSE for the model calibration and validation ranged between 0.58 – 0.86 and between 1.49 and 4.7, respectively for all stations. The obtained future rainfall data from 2071 – 2100 was then compared with the base period rainfall from 1976 - 2005. It was shown that under RCP2.6 scenario there will be an increase of 8.13%, while 14.7% rise in the RCP4.5 scenario during the period of 2071- 2100. An abrupt increase of about 40.6% was observed under the robust scenario of RCP8.5. Therefore, it is concluded that future pattern of rainfall in Limbang River basin under all the scenarios is constantly increasing due to the climate change.

Projections of glacier change in the Altai Mountains under twenty-first century climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Enomoto, Hiroyuki; Ohata, Tetsuo; Kitabata, Hideyuki; Kadota, Tsutomu; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2016-11-01

We project glacier surface mass balances of the Altai Mountains over the period 2006-2100 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using daily near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 12 global climate models in combination with a surface mass balance model. The results indicate that the Altai glaciers will undergo sustained mass loss throughout the 21st for both RCPs and reveal the future fate of glaciers of different sizes. By 2100, glacier area in the region will shrink by 26 ± 10 % for RCP4.5, while it will shrink by 60 ± 15 % for RCP8.5. According to our simulations, most disappearing glaciers are located in the western part of the Altai Mountains. For RCP4.5, all glaciers disappearing in the twenty-first century have a present-day size smaller than 5.0 km2, while for RCP8.5, an additional 7 % of glaciers in the initial size class of 5.0-10.0 km2 also vanish. We project different trends in the total meltwater discharge of the region for the two RCPs, which does not peak before 2100, with important consequences for regional water availability, particular for the semi-arid and arid regions. This further highlights the potential implications of change in the Altai glaciers on regional hydrology and environment.

Altered cerebral protein synthesis in fragile X syndrome: studies in human subjects and knockout mice

PubMed Central

Qin, Mei; Schmidt, Kathleen C; Zametkin, Alan J; Bishu, Shrinivas; Horowitz, Lisa M; Burlin, Thomas V; Xia, Zengyan; Huang, Tianjiang; Quezado, Zenaide M; Smith, Carolyn Beebe

2013-01-01

Dysregulated protein synthesis is thought to be a core phenotype of fragile X syndrome (FXS). In a mouse model (Fmr1 knockout (KO)) of FXS, rates of cerebral protein synthesis (rCPS) are increased in selective brain regions. We hypothesized that rCPS are also increased in FXS subjects. We measured rCPS with the ℒ-[1-11C]leucine positron emission tomography (PET) method in whole brain and 10 regions in 15 FXS subjects who, because of their impairments, were studied under deep sedation with propofol. We compared results with those of 12 age-matched controls studied both awake and sedated. In controls, we found no differences in rCPS between awake and propofol sedation. Contrary to our hypothesis, FXS subjects under propofol sedation had reduced rCPS in whole brain, cerebellum, and cortex compared with sedated controls. To investigate whether propofol could have a disparate effect in FXS subjects masking usually elevated rCPS, we measured rCPS in C57Bl/6 wild-type (WT) and KO mice awake or under propofol sedation. Propofol decreased rCPS substantially in most regions examined in KO mice, but in WT mice caused few discrete changes. Propofol acts by decreasing neuronal activity either directly or by increasing inhibitory synaptic activity. Our results suggest that changes in synaptic signaling can correct increased rCPS in FXS. PMID:23299245

Enhancing the relevance of new scenarios for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.

2013-12-01

Over the past three decades, scenario analyses have occupied a central role in assessments of the potential impacts of climate change on natural and human systems at different scales during the 21st century. Here, we discuss the role and relevance of new scenarios using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of new scenarios needing to be improved in order to enhance their usefulness for IAV studies: the ability to work coherently across spatial scales and adding indicators of importance to projections of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in addition to standard indicators of population and gross domestic product. This paper presents a research agenda to add income distribution, spatial population, human health projections, and governance indicators to the new scenarios.

Communicating uncertainty in circulation aspects of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Ted

2017-04-01

The usual way of representing uncertainty in climate change is to define a likelihood range of possible futures, conditioned on a particular pathway of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCPs). Typically these likelihood ranges are derived from multi-model ensembles. However, there is no obvious basis for treating such ensembles as probability distributions. Moreover, for aspects of climate related to atmospheric circulation, such an approach generally leads to large uncertainty and low confidence in projections. Yet this does not mean that the associated climate risks are small. We therefore need to develop suitable ways of communicating climate risk whilst acknowledging the uncertainties. This talk will outline an approach based on conditioning the purely thermodynamic aspects of climate change, concerning which there is comparatively high confidence, on circulation-related aspects, and treating the latter through non-probabilistic storylines.

Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations.

PubMed

He, Minhui; Yang, Bao; Shishov, Vladimir; Rossi, Sergio; Bräuning, Achim; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Grießinger, Jussi

2018-04-01

The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the global mean. In this study, the 1960-2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960-2014, and April-September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS. We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960-2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade -1 for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological factors that were not included into the growth model. The estimated lengthening of the growing season could substantially affect carbon sequestration and forest productivity on the Tibetan Plateau.

Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Minhui; Yang, Bao; Shishov, Vladimir; Rossi, Sergio; Bräuning, Achim; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Grießinger, Jussi

2017-11-01

The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the global mean. In this study, the 1960-2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960-2014, and April-September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS. We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960-2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade-1 for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological factors that were not included into the growth model. The estimated lengthening of the growing season could substantially affect carbon sequestration and forest productivity on the Tibetan Plateau.

Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, P. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Bowman, K. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Stevenson, D. S.; Tilmes, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Wild, O.; Bergmann, D.;

Hydrological Responses of Chaobai River Basin under 1.5° and 2.0° Global Warming Using Multi-GCMs and Multi-RCPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Y.; Ma, J.

2017-12-01

The global warming of 1.5° and 2.0° proposed in Paris Agreement has became the iconic threshold of climate change impact research and discussion. In order to provide useful reference to the effective water resource management and planning for the capital city of China, this study aims to assessing the potential impact of 1.5° and 2.0° global warming on river discharge in Chaobai River Basin(CRB) which is main water supply source of Beijing. A semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate projections from five General Circulation Models(GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to simulate the future discharge in CRB under 1.5° and 2.0° global warming respectively. On this basis, climate change impact on annual and monthly discharge, seasonal discharge distribution, extreme monthly discharge in CRB were assessed and the uncertainty associated with GCMs and RCPs were analyzed quantitatively. The results indicate that the average annual discharge will increase slightly and more concentrate in midsummer and early autumn under 1.5° global warming. When the global average temperature rise 2°, the annual discharge in CRB show an evident positive tendency with the magnitude increasing by approximate 30% and the extreme monthly runoff will significantly increase. However, the proportion of discharge in summer which is the peak water usage period will decline. It is obvious that the increment of 0.5° will lead to more flood events and bring great challenge to water resource management. There is a certain uncertainty in the projection of temperature, precipitation and discharge, by contrast, uncertainty of discharge projection is far greater than that of other two meteorological elements. Compared with RCPs, GCMs are proved to be the main factor which are responsible for the impact uncertainty in CRB under two global warming horizons. The uncertainty will be larger as the warming magnitude increase. In a word, the additional 0.5 will be crucial to flood control and water security, therefore, it is better to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, V. K.; Scinocca, J. F.; Boer, G. J.; Christian, J. R.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Kharin, V. V.; Lee, W. G.; Merryfield, W. J.

2011-03-01

The response of the second-generation Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) to historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) natural and anthropogenic forcing is assessed using the newly-developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. Allowable emissions required to achieve the future atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, are reported for the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. For the historical 1850-2005 period, cumulative land plus ocean carbon uptake and, consequently, cumulative diagnosed emissions compare well with observation-based estimates. The simulated historical carbon uptake is somewhat weaker for the ocean and stronger for the land relative to their observation-based estimates. The simulated historical warming of 0.9°C compares well with the observation-based estimate of 0.76 ± 0.19°C. The RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively yield warmings of 1.4, 2.3, and 4.9°C and cumulative diagnosed fossil fuel emissions of 182, 643 and 1617 Pg C over the 2006-2100 period. The simulated warming of 2.3°C over the 1850-2100 period in the RCP 2.6 scenario, with the lowest concentration of GHGs, is slightly larger than the 2°C warming target set to avoid dangerous climate change by the 2009 UN Copenhagen Accord. The results of this study suggest that limiting warming to roughly 2°C by the end of this century is unlikely since it requires an immediate ramp down of emissions followed by ongoing carbon sequestration in the second half of this century.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

Effect of climate data on simulated carbon and nitrogen balances for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanke, Jan Hendrik; Lindeskog, Mats; Lindström, Johan; Lehsten, Veiko

2016-05-01

In this study, we systematically assess the spatial variability in carbon and nitrogen balance simulations related to the choice of global circulation models (GCMs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs), spatial resolutions, and the downscaling methods used as calculated with LPJ-GUESS. We employed a complete factorial design and performed 24 simulations for Europe with different climate input data sets and different combinations of these four factors. Our results reveal that the variability in simulated output in Europe is moderate with 35.6%-93.5% of the total variability being common among all combinations of factors. The spatial resolution is the most important factor among the examined factors, explaining 1.5%-10.7% of the total variability followed by GCMs (0.3%-7.6%), RCPs (0%-6.3%), and downscaling methods (0.1%-4.6%). The higher-order interactions effect that captures nonlinear relations between the factors and random effects is pronounced and accounts for 1.6%-45.8% to the total variability. The most distinct hot spots of variability include the mountain ranges in North Scandinavia and the Alps, and the Iberian Peninsula. Based on our findings, we advise to conduct the application of models such as LPJ-GUESS at a reasonably high spatial resolution which is supported by the model structure. There is no notable gain in simulations of ecosystem carbon and nitrogen stocks and fluxes from using regionally downscaled climate in preference to bias-corrected, bilinearly interpolated CMIP5 projections.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to themore » GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.« less

Implications of cumulative GHG Emissions to Climate, Society and Ecosystems in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Pierce, D. W.

2016-12-01

We investigate simulations conducted for the ongoing Climate Change Assessments in California. In this presentation, we explore implications of global climate change threshold targets on temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, snow pack, and extreme events including heat waves, wildfire and coastal flooding in California. A set of regional models driven by an ensemble of global climate change futures from 4th and 5th IPCC Assessment GCMs indicate how California's climate and thus its hydrological systems, coast and wildlands respond to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that produce global warming of 1.5°C and beyond. Differing global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios would produce strongly diverging results after mid-21st Century, as emphasized by the suite of modeled regional climate measures. The results demonstrate that global emissions can be used, independent of emissions pathway (but not entirely and not for all climate and impact measures), to estimate physical changes at the local and regional levels in the State. These relationships are explored to re-interpret prior studies that were based on the SRES emission scenarios along with the current suite of RCP scenarios. In addition, because historical emissions are above what was envisioned for the RCPs, and since the 2015 Conference of Parties implies a departure from the RCPs, consideration of cumulative CO2 emissions provides a useful tool for contextualizing historical emissions and expected outcomes from COP21. Climate policy implications are described, including climate adaptation guidance that California entities are required or encouraged to follow.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential, Attainable, and Actual Wheat Yield in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, K.; Linde, E.; Kakani, V. G.; Alderman, P. D.; Brunson, D.; Ochsner, T. E.; Carver, B.

2017-12-01

Gradually developing climatic and weather anomalies due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration can pose threat to farmers and resource managers. This study was aimed at investigating the effects of climate change on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 6.0 and 8.5 using downscaled climate projections from different models and their ensembles. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation for, four General Circulation Models (MRIOC5, MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSRIO-Mk3.6.0), ensemble of four models and ensemble of 17 GCMs, at 800 m resolution, were developed for two RCPs using Marksim. We describe a methodology for rapid synthesis of GCM-based, spatially explicit, high resolution future weather data inputs for the DSSAT crop model, for cropland area across wheat growing regions of Oklahoma for the future period 2040-2060. The potential impacts of climate change and variability on potential, attainable, and actual winter wheat yield in Oklahoma is discussed.

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, Willliam K.

2016-01-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen.

The retrocuspid papilla. A clinical survey.

PubMed

Berman, F R; Fay, J T

1976-07-01

1. As mentioned previously in the literature, RCPs are commonly found in the young but become progressively less evident with advancing age. 2. The incidence of the RCP in Negroes is approximately the same as that in Caucasians. 3. Bilateral RCPs are more common than unilateral papillae. 4. The occurrence of RCPs is consistently more common in females than in males, in both Caucasians and Negroes. 5. Histologically, the RCPs are essentially normal, showing features indicative of those seen in frictional irritation during mastication and phonation. 6. The 72.5 per cent incidence of RCPs in children under 11 years of age confirms the trends of past studies and indicates that the RCP is a normal entity in pediatric dental patients and should be included in the literature as such. 7. The clinical significance of the RCP is that it be recognized as a normal anatomic structure that regresses with age and requires no treatment.

pyhector: A Python interface for the simple climate model Hector

DOE PAGES

Willner, Sven N.; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

2017-04-01

Here, pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary productionmore » and respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system. The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willner, Sven N.; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

Here, pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary productionmore » and respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system. The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.« less

Environmental water demand assessment under climate change conditions.

PubMed

Sarzaeim, Parisa; Bozorg-Haddad, Omid; Fallah-Mehdipour, Elahe; Loáiciga, Hugo A

2017-07-01

Measures taken to cope with the possible effects of climate change on water resources management are key for the successful adaptation to such change. This work assesses the environmental water demand of the Karkheh river in the reach comprising Karkheh dam to the Hoor-al-Azim wetland, Iran, under climate change during the period 2010-2059. The assessment of the environmental demand applies (1) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and (2) downscaling methods. The first phase of this work projects temperature and rainfall in the period 2010-2059 under three RCPs and with two downscaling methods. Thus, six climatic scenarios are generated. The results showed that temperature and rainfall average would increase in the range of 1.7-5.2 and 1.9-9.2%, respectively. Subsequently, flows corresponding to the six different climatic scenarios are simulated with the unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation, and stream flow data (IHACRES) rainfall-runoff model and are input to the Karkheh reservoir. The simulation results indicated increases of 0.9-7.7% in the average flow under the six simulation scenarios during the period of analysis. The second phase of this paper's methodology determines the monthly minimum environmental water demands of the Karkheh river associated with the six simulation scenarios using a hydrological method. The determined environmental demands are compared with historical ones. The results show that the temporal variation of monthly environmental demand would change under climate change conditions. Furthermore, some climatic scenarios project environmental water demand larger than and some of them project less than the baseline one.

Simulating adaptive wood harvest in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Nabel, Julia; Pongratz, Julia

2016-04-01

The world's forest experience substantial carbon exchange fluxes between land and atmosphere. Large carbon sinks occur in response to changes in environmental conditions (such as climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations), removing about one quarter of current anthropogenic CO2-emissions. Large sinks also occur due to regrowth of forest on areas of agricultural abandonment or forest management. Forest management, on the other hand, also leads to substantial amounts of carbon being eventually released to the atmosphere. Both sinks and sources attributable to forests are therefore dependent on the intensity of management. Forest management in turn depends on the availability of resources, which is influenced by environmental conditions and sustainability of management systems applied. Estimating future carbon fluxes therefore requires accounting for the interaction of environmental conditions, forest growth, and management. However, this interaction is not fully captured by current modeling approaches: Earth system models depict in detail interactions between climate, the carbon cycle, and vegetation growth, but use prescribed information on management. Resource needs and land management, however, are simulated by Integrated Assessment Models that typically only have coarse representations of the influence of environmental changes on vegetation growth and are typically based on the demand for wood driven by regional population growth and energy needs. Here we present a study that provides the link between environmental conditions, forest growth and management. We extend the land component JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model (MPI-ESM) to simulate potential wood harvest in response to altered growth conditions and thus as adaptive to changing climate and CO2 conditions. We apply the altered model to estimate potential wood harvest for future climates (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) for the management scenario of "sustained yields" (SY), i.e. that wood harvest is not allowed to reduce wood carbon stocks below their present-day average state. We find that the potentials for SY range from about 420 to 610 PgC cumulatively until 2100 depending on assumed future climate (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 or 8.5). They are thus substantially higher than the harvest prescribed in the context of the same RCPs for the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which ranged from about 130 to 210 PgC. The underlying drivers of the higher potentials of SY as compared to the RCP harvest are in all scenarios foremost avoided natural mortality, followed by avoided losses due to fire and windbreak. Further, usage of the increase in forest carbon stocks simulated with time under RCP harvest plays a large role in the first decades of the 21st century. The potential wood harvest that we simulate accounting for environmental changes does not include considerations on biodiversity and other ecosystem services or technical feasibility. However, the substantially higher simulated harvest from SY as compared to that prescribed from the RCPs and the difference found between climate scenarios highlights the need to account for effects of environmental changes on vegetation growth also in socio-economic models and thus the need for a consistent representation of climate-landuse interactions.

Projections of atmospheric nitrous oxide under scenarios of improved agriculture and industrial efficiencies, diet modification, and representative concentration pathways (RCPs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, E. A.

2011-12-01

Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), now at about 325ppb, have been increasing since the Industrial Revolution, as livestock herds increased globally and as use of synthetic-N fertilizers increased after WWII. The agricultural sector produces 70-80% of anthropogenic N2O. Significantly reducing those emissions while also improving the diets of the growing global human population will be very challenging. Increases in atmospheric N2O since 1860 are consistent with emissions factors of 2.5% of annual fertilizer-N usage and 2.0% of annual manure-N production being converted to N2O. These factors include both direct and indirect emissions attributable to these sources. Here I present projections of N2O emissions for a variety of scenarios including: (1) FAO population/diet scenarios with no changes in emission factors; (2) per-capita protein consumption in the developed world declines to 1980 levels by 2030 and only half of that is obtained from animal products, thus cutting global manure production by about 20%; (3) improvements in N-use efficiency and manure management reduce the emission factors by 50% by 2050; (4) same as 3 but industrial and transportation emissions are similarly reduced by 50% by 2050; and (5) all mitigations together. These projections are then compared to the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) developed for the IPCC-AR5. With no further mitigation, the projections are consistent with RCP8.5, with atmospheric N2O at 368 ppb in 2050. RCP8.5 is a reasonable representation of N2O concentrations with growing agricultural production to feed a growing and better-nourished population, without improvements in agricultural efficiencies or changes in developed world diets. Major reductions in per-capita meat consumption in the developed world reduce projected 2050 N2O to 256 ppb, which is in line with RCP6.0. Cutting emission factors in half but without diet change would also lower projected 2050 N2O to 252ppb. Adding 50% improvements in other sectors reduces the 2050 N2O to 350ppm, which is in line with RCP4.5. Combining these improved efficiencies with reduced meat consumption results in leveling off of atmospheric N2O at 341 ppb in 2050, which achieves the most optimistic scenario of RCP3PD. All of these scenarios involve rather optimistic assumptions. Only the combination of technological and management improvements that increase N-use efficiencies by crops and decrease losses from manure management and significant reduction in meat consumption in the developed world can achieve stabilization of atmospheric N2O by 2050.

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2016-01-01

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

Functional insights from the distribution and role of homopeptide repeat-containing proteins

PubMed Central

Faux, Noel G.; Bottomley, Stephen P.; Lesk, Arthur M.; Irving, James A.; Morrison, John R.; de la Banda, Maria Garcia; Whisstock, James C.

2005-01-01

Expansion of “low complex” repeats of amino acids such as glutamine (Poly-Q) is associated with protein misfolding and the development of degenerative diseases such as Huntington's disease. The mechanism by which such regions promote misfolding remains controversial, the function of many repeat-containing proteins (RCPs) remains obscure, and the role (if any) of repeat regions remains to be determined. Here, a Web-accessible database of RCPs is presented. The distribution and evolution of RCPs that contain homopeptide repeats tracts are considered, and the existence of functional patterns investigated. Generally, it is found that while polyamino acid repeats are extremely rare in prokaryotes, several eukaryote putative homologs of prokaryote RCP—involved in important housekeeping processes—retain the repetitive region, suggesting an ancient origin for certain repeats. Within eukarya, the most common uninterrupted amino acid repeats are glutamine, asparagines, and alanine. Interestingly, while poly-Q repeats are found in vertebrates and nonvertebrates, poly-N repeats are only common in more primitive nonvertebrate organisms, such as insects and nematodes. We have assigned function to eukaryote RCPs using Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM), the Human Reference Protein Database (HRPD), FlyBase, and Wormpep. Prokaryote RCPs were annotated using BLASTp searches and Gene Ontology. These data reveal that the majority of RCPs are involved in processes that require the assembly of large, multiprotein complexes, such as transcription and signaling. PMID:15805494

Effects of Climate Change in the Water Balance of a Modified River Watershed System in Central Illinois

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honings, J.; Seyoum, W. M.

2017-12-01

Understanding the response of water cycle dynamics to climate change and human activity is essential for best management of water resources. This study used the USDA Soil-Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to measure and predict major water balance variables including stream discharge, potential aquifer recharge, and surface storage in a small-scale watershed ( 2,930 km²) in Central Illinois. The Mackinaw River drains the study watershed, which is predominantly tile-drained agricultural land. Two reservoirs, Evergreen Lake and Lake Bloomington, and the Mahomet Aquifer in the watershed are used for public water supply. Tiles modify watershed hydrology by efficiently draining water from saturated soil to streams, which increases total streamflow and reduces direct aquifer recharge from precipitation. To assess how the watershed is affected by future climate change, this study used high-resolution climate projection data ( 12 km) in a calibrated and validated SWAT hydrologic model. Using General Circulation Models, four (4) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) developed by the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Fifth Assessment Report (CMIP5) were used for prediction of precipitation, mean, minimum, and maximum temperature for the watershed. Temperature predictions for 2050 were warmer for RCPs 2.6 and 8.0 (+0.69°C and +1.8°C), coinciding with increased precipitation rates (+2.5% and +4.3%). End of century projections indicate warmer mean temperatures (+0.66°C and +4.9°C) for RCPs 2.6 and 8.0. By 2099, precipitation predictions are wetter for RCP 8.0 (+10%), but drier for RCP 2.6 (-2%) from the baseline. Preliminary model calibration (R2 value = 0.7) results showed an annual average watershed yield of 32.8 m³/s at the outlet with average potential recharge of 18% of total precipitation. Tile flow comprises 10 to 30% of total flow in the watershed simulations. Predicted hydrologic variables for the extreme scenarios at mid- and end of century indicate +4.1% total flow and +4.8% recharge for RCP 2.6, compared to +4.5% total flow and +11% recharge for RCP 8.0. Effects of tile drainage and other management practices in the watershed will be examined under climate change scenarios. Model results will be used to aid future decisions involving water resource consumption and agricultural management.

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: climate change consequences for soil water resources.

PubMed

Palmquist, Kyle A; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K

2016-09-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: (1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems, and (2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT, to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, whereas changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer, drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

2016-04-01

A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people (46% of Asian population) are going to live in countries classified as high hydrological complexity. In particular, in Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, then home to 370 million people, hydrological complexity will be high while adaptation capacity is still low. On the other hand, a part of people however who live in countries with higher expected adaptive capacities may have better futures depending on policies and investment. Besides country scale, grid scale analyses clearly highlighted that a large part of population living under strong water stress in highly populated areas of Asia, such as east and coastal areas in China and large parts of India. Our preliminary results show that a significant impact of socioeconomic scenarios on each of the indexes which is comparable to that of climate scenarios. For instance, the least timing, trend and spatial distribution of water resource per capita are highly affected by projected population. This study shows that features of time series change in each indexes are also informative particularly for decision makers because they support in optimal timing of investment for countermeasures. In this presentation, we are showing our analysis framework and results of each integrated indexes.

Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2011-12-01

In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

Climate Modelling Shows Increased Risk to Eucalyptus sideroxylon on the Eastern Coast of Australia Compared to Eucalyptus albens

PubMed Central

Shabani, Farzin; Ahmadi, Mohsen

2017-01-01

Aim: To identify the extent and direction of range shift of Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens in Australia by 2050 through an ensemble forecast of four species distribution models (SDMs). Each was generated using four global climate models (GCMs), under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Location: Australia. Methods: We used four SDMs of (i) generalized linear model, (ii) MaxEnt, (iii) random forest, and (iv) boosted regression tree to construct SDMs for species E. sideroxylon and E. albens under four GCMs including (a) MRI-CGCM3, (b) MIROC5, (c) HadGEM2-AO and (d) CCSM4, under two RCPs of 4.5 and 6.0. Here, the true skill statistic (TSS) index was used to assess the accuracy of each SDM. Results: Results showed that E. albens and E. sideroxylon will lose large areas of their current suitable range by 2050 and E. sideroxylon is projected to gain in eastern and southeastern Australia. Some areas were also projected to remain suitable for each species between now and 2050. Our modelling showed that E. sideroxylon will lose suitable habitat on the western side and will not gain any on the eastern side because this region is one the most heavily populated areas in the country, and the populated areas are moving westward. The predicted decrease in E. sideroxylon’s distribution suggests that land managers should monitor its population closely, and evaluate whether it meets criteria for a protected legal status. Main conclusions: Both Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens will be negatively affected by climate change and it is projected that E. sideroxylon will be at greater risk of losing habitat than E. albens. PMID:29186755

A Bayesian beta distribution model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Young

2016-09-01

The estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data comprises a classical task in hydrology studies to support a variety of water resources projects, including urban drainage and the design of flood control structures. In a changing climate, however, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to poor estimates of rainfall intensity quantiles. Climate change scenarios built on General Circulation Models offer a way to access and estimate future changes in spatial and temporal rainfall patterns at the daily scale at the utmost, which is not as fine temporal resolution as required (e.g. hours) to directly estimate IDF curves. In this paper we propose a novel methodology based on a four-parameter beta distribution to estimate IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) daily rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the updated nonstationary beta distribution. The inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters when building the IDF curves. The proposed model is tested using rainfall data from four stations located in South Korea and projected climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios 6 and 8.5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-RA model. The results show that the developed model fits the historical data as good as the traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution but is able to produce future IDF curves that significantly differ from the historically based IDF curves. The proposed model predicts for the stations and RCPs scenarios analysed in this work an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfalls of short duration with long return periods.

Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2017-12-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future fossil energy combustion and are overly constrained, implying it is likely easier to achieve a 1.5˚ climate policy goal than previously demonstrated.

Invasive alien plant species dynamics in the Himalayan region under climate change.

PubMed

Lamsal, Pramod; Kumar, Lalit; Aryal, Achyut; Atreya, Kishor

2018-01-25

Climate change will impact the dynamics of invasive alien plant species (IAPS). However, the ability of IAPS under changing climate to invade mountain ecosystems, particularly the Himalayan region, is less known. This study investigates the current and future habitat of five IAPS of the Himalayan region using MaxEnt and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Two invasive species, Ageratum conyzoides and Parthenium hysterophorus, will lose overall suitable area by 2070, while Ageratina adenophora, Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara will gain suitable areas and all of them will retain most of the current habitat as stable. The southern Himalayan foothills will mostly conserve species ecological niches, while suitability of all the five species will decrease with increasing elevation. Such invasion dynamics in the Himalayan region could have impacts on numerous ecosystems and their biota, ecosystem services and human well-being. Trans-boundary response strategies suitable to the local context of the region could buffer some of the likely invasion impacts.

The Uptake of Heat and Carbon by the Southern Ocean in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.; Stouffer, R. J.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.

2011-12-01

The Southern Ocean surrounding the Antarctic continent accounts for a disproportionate share of the heat and carbon dioxide that is removed from contact with the atmosphere into the ocean. The vigorous air-sea exchange driven by the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies, combined with the dearth of observations, makes the Southern Ocean a major source of uncertainty in projecting the rate of warming of our atmosphere, especially considering that the vertical mixing of the ocean and the corollary air-sea fluxes may be vulnerable to climate change. We assess the heat and carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean in future simulations by the IPCC-AR5 Earth System Models (ESMs), focusing on the GFDL simulations. Using the 1860 control simulation as our baseline, we explore the differences in heat and carbon uptake between the major "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs) as simulated by the various ESMs in order to quantify the uncertainties in the climate projections related to the Southern Ocean window into the deep ocean reservoir.

Modelling of labour productivity loss due to climate change: HEAT-SHIELD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Daanen, Hein

2016-04-01

Climate change will bring higher heat levels (temperature and humidity combined) to large parts of the world. When these levels reach above thresholds well defined by human physiology, the ability to maintain physical activity levels decrease and labour productivity is reduced. This impact is of particular importance in work situations in areas with long high intensity hot seasons, but also affects cooler areas during heat waves. Our modelling of labour productivity loss includes climate model data of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP), calculations of heat stress indexes during different months, estimations of work capacity loss and its annual impacts in different parts of the world. Different climate models will be compared for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the outcomes of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) agreements. The validation includes comparisons of modelling outputs with actual field studies using historical heat data. These modelling approaches are a first stage contribution to the European Commission funded HEAT-SHIELD project.

The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

PubMed

Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

2017-11-01

Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Emission and Climate Change on Ozone in the United States under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Drake, John B.

Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate-chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in 2050s. Ozone concentrations in the lower-mid troposphere (surface to ~300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), show decreasing trends in RCP 4.5 between 2000s and 2050s, with the largest decrease of 4-10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall;more » and increasing trends (2-12 ppbv) in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. In RCP 8.5, methane emissions increase by ~60% by the end of 2050s, accounting for more than 90% of ozone increases in summer and fall, and 60-80% in spring and winter. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations, ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions and enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to more than 8 ppbv of the maximum daily 8-hour daily average (MDA8) ozone during the heat wave days than other days; this indicates the dramatic impact heat waves exert on high frequency ozone events.« less

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-11-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

Quantifying the impact of current and future concentrations of air pollutants on respiratory disease risk in England.

PubMed

Pannullo, Francesca; Lee, Duncan; Neal, Lucy; Dalvi, Mohit; Agnew, Paul; O'Connor, Fiona M; Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Sahu, Sujit; Sarran, Christophe

2017-03-27

Estimating the long-term health impact of air pollution in a spatio-temporal ecological study requires representative concentrations of air pollutants to be constructed for each geographical unit and time period. Averaging concentrations in space and time is commonly carried out, but little is known about how robust the estimated health effects are to different aggregation functions. A second under researched question is what impact air pollution is likely to have in the future. We conducted a study for England between 2007 and 2011, investigating the relationship between respiratory hospital admissions and different pollutants: nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ); ozone (O 3 ); particulate matter, the latter including particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM 2.5 ), and less than 10 micrometers (PM 10 ); and sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ). Bayesian Poisson regression models accounting for localised spatio-temporal autocorrelation were used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of pollution on disease risk, and for each pollutant four representative concentrations were constructed using combinations of spatial and temporal averages and maximums. The estimated RRs were then used to make projections of the numbers of likely respiratory hospital admissions in the 2050s attributable to air pollution, based on emission projections from a number of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). NO 2 exhibited the largest association with respiratory hospital admissions out of the pollutants considered, with estimated increased risks of between 0.9 and 1.6% for a one standard deviation increase in concentrations. In the future the projected numbers of respiratory hospital admissions attributable to NO 2 in the 2050s are lower than present day rates under 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, which is due to projected reductions in future NO 2 emissions and concentrations. NO 2 concentrations exhibit consistent substantial present-day health effects regardless of how a representative concentration is constructed in space and time. Thus as concentrations are predicted to remain above limits set by European Union Legislation until the 2030s in parts of urban England, it will remain a substantial health risk for some time.

Effects of aerosol emission pathways on future warming and human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Matthews, Damon

2016-04-01

The peak global temperature is largely determined by cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. However, anthropogenic emissions include also so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol particles and methane. Previous studies with simple models indicate that the timing of SLCF emission reductions has only a small effect on the rate of global warming and even less of an effect on global peak temperatures. However, these simple model analyses do not capture the spatial dynamics of aerosol-climate interactions, nor do they consider the additional effects of aerosol emissions on human health. There is therefore merit in assessing how the timing of aerosol emission reductions affects global temperature and premature mortality caused by elevated aerosol concentrations, using more comprehensive climate models. Here, we used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to simulate the direct and indirect radiative forcing resulting from aerosol emissions. We simulated Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and we also designed idealized low and high aerosol emission pathways based on RCP4.5 scenario (LOW and HIGH, respectively). From these simulations, we calculated the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) from aerosol emissions between 1850 and 2100, as well as aerosol concentrations used to estimate the premature mortality caused by particulate pollution. We then use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of climate response to these aerosol-forcing scenarios, in combination with prescribed emissions of both short and long-lived greenhouse gases according to the RCP4.5 scenario. In the RCP scenarios, global mean ERF declined during the 21st century from -1.3 W m-2 to -0.4 W m-2 (RCP8.5) and -0.2 W m-2 (RCP2.6). In the sensitivity scenarios, the forcing at the end of the 21st century was -1.6 W m-2 (HIGH) and practically zero (LOW). The difference in global mean temperature at the year 2100 between LOW and HIGH was about 0.4 °C. The effect was even more significant on the global mean warming rate that reached 0.4 °C per decade in LOW and only 0.2 °C per decade in HIGH. The global temperature and warming rate were similar to each other in simulations using the aerosol emissions from standard RCP scenarios. Anthropogenic aerosols caused significant premature mortality during the 21st century. In 2005, they caused 1.5 million deaths annually. The annual death rate dropped to 0.13 million per year in LOW and was 0.9 million per year in HIGH by 2100. Total premature mortality caused by anthropogenic aerosol particles between 2005 and 2100 was 27 million in LOW, 52-68 million in RCPs, and 113 million in HIGH. Our results show that both climate and health effects of aerosols are fairly similar across RCP scenarios. However, RCPs share assumptions on effective air-quality policies. Our scenarios LOW and HIGH demonstrate that if strong aerosol policies are not enforced or even more ambitious cuts in aerosol emissions are made, the aerosol impacts on climate and health can differ significantly between scenarios.

Analyzing long-term spatial variability of blue and green water footprints in a semi-arid mountainous basin with MIROC-ESM model (case study: Kashafrood River Basin, Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghakhani Afshar, A.; Hassanzadeh, Y.; Pourreza-Bilondi, M.; Ahmadi, A.

2017-11-01

The river basin hydrology cycles and the available water resources (including blue and green water) are greatly influenced by the climate change and rainfall patterns in regions with arid and semi-arid climates. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the parameters of virtual water is evaluated in the Kashafrood River (KR), as a large-scale basin which is located in the northeast of Iran, by means of SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) along with SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Program version 2). In addition, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are taken into account at five runoff stations for calibrating and validating the model. Based on the changes in blue water (BW), green water flow (GWF), and green water storage (GWS), the water availability was analyzed using MIROC-ESM model in series of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and was compared with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These emission scenarios were downscaled based on the observed data under three future periods: near future (2014-2042), intermediate future (2043-2071), and far future (2072-2100) in relation to a historical period (1992-2013). Calibration and validation at multi-site (five stations) showed a proper performance of the SWAT model in modeling hydrological processes. Results of investigating climate change impacts on the blue and green water components (BW and GW) showed that in the historical period, the basin was not in an appropriate climate condition for accessing the water resources. Also, in future times, considerable spatial variations in different hydrological components were observed. On the other hand, under both RCPs and in all three future periods in relative to historical period, the BW contents will increase about 46-74%, while GWF will decrease about 2-15%. Regarding the historical period, it was revealed that the condition of the basin will be improved. In addition, the GWS tended to rise about 11-18% or decrease about 6-60% in the future. The BW and GWS will decrease, and GWS will increase by changing from the near future to the intermediate future. On the other hand, by changing from the intermediate to the far future, BW and GWF will increase under RCP2.6 and will decrease under RCP8.5, respectively. Also, GWS will decrease under both RCPs.

Future possible crop yield scenarios under multiple SSP and RCP scenarios.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakurai, G.; Yokozawa, M.; Nishimori, M.; Okada, M.

2016-12-01

Understanding the effect of future climate change on global crop yields is one of the most important tasks for global food security. Future crop yields would be influenced by climatic factors such as the changes of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. On the other hand, the effect of the changes of agricultural technologies such as crop varieties, pesticide and fertilizer input on crop yields have large uncertainty. However, not much is available on the contribution ratio of each factor under the future climate change scenario. We estimated the future global yields of four major crops (maize, soybean, rice and wheat) under three Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For this purpose, firstly, we estimated a parameter of a process based model (PRYSBI2) using a Bayesian method for each 1.125 degree spatial grid. The model parameter is relevant to the agricultural technology (we call "technological parameter" here after). Then, we analyzed the relationship between the values of technological parameter and GDP values. We found that the estimated values of the technological parameter were positively correlated with the GDP. Using the estimated relationship, we predicted future crop yield during 2020 and 2100 under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios and RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The estimated crop yields were different among SSP scenarios. However, we found that the yield difference attributable to SSPs were smaller than those attributable to CO2 fertilization effects and climate change. Particularly, the estimated effect of the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on global yields was more than four times larger than that of GDP for C3 crops.

Regular Class Participation System (RCPS). A Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, Dianne L.; And Others

The Regular Class Participation System (RCPS) project attempted to develop, implement, and validate a system for placing and maintaining students with severe disabilities in general education classrooms, with a particular emphasis on achieving both social and learning outcomes for students. A teacher-based planning strategy was developed and…

A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

Community Education and Youth Mentoring: How to Build Good Practice?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broadbent, Robyn; Papadopoulos, Theo

2009-01-01

In 2008, the Helen Macpherson Smith (HMS) Trust commissioned Victoria University to conduct an evaluation of the Mentoring and Capacity Building Initiative's Regional Coordination Projects (RCPs). The RCPs are founded on a model of community education and collaboration that aims to enhance cross-sectoral and whole-of-community approaches to…

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

PubMed Central

Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Grégory; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. PMID:25798227

Analysis and trends of precipitation lapse rate and extreme indices over north Sikkim eastern Himalayas under CMIP5ESM-2M RCPs experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vishal; Goyal, Manish Kumar

2016-01-01

This paper draws attention to highlight the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation lapse rate (PLR) and precipitation extreme indices (PEIs) through the mesoscale characterization of Teesta river catchment, which corresponds to north Sikkim eastern Himalayas. A PLR rate is an important variable for the snowmelt runoff models. In a mountainous region, the PLR could be varied from lower elevation parts to high elevation parts. In this study, a PLR was computed by accounting elevation differences, which varies from around 1500 m to 7000 m. A precipitation variability and extremity were analysed using multiple mathematical functions viz. quantile regression, spatial mean, spatial standard deviation, Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimation. For this reason, a daily precipitation, in the historical (years 1980-2005) as measured/observed gridded points and projected experiments for the 21st century (years 2006-2100) simulated by CMIP5 ESM-2 M model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth System Model 2) employing three different radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), utilized for the research work. The outcomes of this study suggest that a PLR is significantly varied from lower elevation to high elevation parts. The PEI based analysis showed that the extreme high intensity events have been increased significantly, especially after 2040s. The PEI based observations also showed that the numbers of wet days are increased for all the RCPs. The quantile regression plots showed significant increments in the upper and lower quantiles of the various extreme indices. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimation tests clearly indicated significant changing patterns in the frequency and intensity of the precipitation indices across all the sub-basins and RCP scenario in an intra-decadal time series domain. The RCP8.5 showed extremity of the projected outcomes.

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

PubMed

Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

2015-08-28

There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.

Effects of Climate Change on Exposure to Coastal Flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean

PubMed Central

Reguero, Borja G.; Losada, Iñigo J.; Díaz-Simal, Pedro; Méndez, Fernando J.; Beck, Michael W.

2015-01-01

This study considers and compares several of the most important factors contributing to coastal flooding in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) while accounting for the variations of these factors with location and time. The study assesses the populations, the land areas and the built capital exposed at present and at the middle and end of the 21st century for a set of scenarios that include both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Climatic drivers include global mean sea level, natural modes of climate variability such as El Niño, natural subsidence, and extreme sea levels resulting from the combination of projected local sea-level rise, storm surges and wave setup. Population is the only human-related driver accounted for in the future. Without adaptation, more than 4 million inhabitants will be exposed to flooding from relative sea-level rise by the end of the century, assuming the 8.5 W m−2 trajectory of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), or RCP8.5. However, the contributions from El Niño events substantially raise the threat in several Pacific-coast countries of the region and sooner than previously anticipated. At the tropical Pacific coastlines, the exposure by the mid-century for an event similar to El Niño 1998 would be comparable to that of the RCP4.5 relative sea-level rise by the end of the century. Furthermore, more than 7.5 million inhabitants, 42,600 km2 and built capital valued at 334 billion USD are currently situated at elevations below the 100-year extreme sea level. With sea levels rising and the population increasing, it is estimated that more than 9 million inhabitants will be exposed by the end of the century for either of the RCPs considered. The spatial distribution of exposure and the comparison of scenarios and timeframes can serve as a guide in future adaptation and risk reduction policies in the region. PMID:26177285

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Use of spectral analysis with iterative filter for voxelwise determination of regional rates of cerebral protein synthesis with L-[1-11C]leucine PET.

PubMed

Veronese, Mattia; Schmidt, Kathleen C; Smith, Carolyn Beebe; Bertoldo, Alessandra

2012-06-01

A spectral analysis approach was used to estimate kinetic parameters of the L-[1-(11)C]leucine positron emission tomography (PET) method and regional rates of cerebral protein synthesis (rCPS) on a voxel-by-voxel basis. Spectral analysis applies to both heterogeneous and homogeneous tissues; it does not require prior assumptions concerning number of tissue compartments. Parameters estimated with spectral analysis can be strongly affected by noise, but numerical filters improve estimation performance. Spectral analysis with iterative filter (SAIF) was originally developed to improve estimation of leucine kinetic parameters and rCPS in region-of-interest (ROI) data analyses. In the present study, we optimized SAIF for application at the voxel level. In measured L-[1-(11)C]leucine PET data, voxel-level SAIF parameter estimates averaged over all voxels within a ROI (mean voxel-SAIF) generally agreed well with corresponding estimates derived by applying the originally developed SAIF to ROI time-activity curves (ROI-SAIF). Region-of-interest-SAIF and mean voxel-SAIF estimates of rCPS were highly correlated. Simulations showed that mean voxel-SAIF rCPS estimates were less biased and less variable than ROI-SAIF estimates in the whole brain and cortex; biases were similar in white matter. We conclude that estimation of rCPS with SAIF is improved when the method is applied at voxel level than in ROI analysis.

Modelling future changes to the stratospheric source gas injection of biogenic bromocarbons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossaini, R.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Dhomse, S.; Ordóñez, C.; Saiz-Lopez, A.; Abraham, N. L.; Archibald, A.; Braesicke, P.; Telford, P.; Warwick, N.; Yang, X.; Pyle, J.

2012-10-01

Simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) show a future increase in the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of biogenic very short-lived substances (VSLS). For 2000, the modelled SGI of bromine from VSLS is ∼1.7 parts per trillion (pptv) and largest over the tropical West Pacific. For 2100, this increases to ∼2.0 and ∼2.7 pptv when the model is forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The increase is largely due to stronger tropical deep convection transporting more CHBr3 to the lower stratosphere. For CH2Br2, CHBr2Cl, CH2BrCl and CHBrCl2, changes to primary oxidant OH determines their SGI contribution. Under RCP 4.5 (moderate warming), OH increases in a warmer, more humid troposphere. Under RCP 8.5 (extreme warming) OH decreases significantly due to a large methane increase, allowing greater SGI of bromine from these VSLS. Potentially enhanced VSLS emissions in the future would further increase these estimates.

Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henze, Daven K.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Akhtar, Farhan; Spurr, Robert J. D.; Pinder, Robert W.; Loughlin, Dan; Kopacz, Monika; Singh, Kumaresh; Shim, Changsub

2012-01-01

Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH3, SO2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.

Reforestation in a high-CO2 world -- Higher mitigation potential than expected, lower adaptation potential than hoped for

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonntag, Sebastian; Pongratz, Julia; Reick, Christian H.; Schmidt, Hauke

2016-06-01

We assess the potential and possible consequences for the global climate of a strong reforestation scenario for this century. We perform model experiments using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), forced by fossil-fuel CO2 emissions according to the high-emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but using land use transitions according to RCP4.5, which assumes strong reforestation. Thereby, we isolate the land use change effects of the RCPs from those of other anthropogenic forcings. We find that by 2100 atmospheric CO2 is reduced by 85 ppm in the reforestation model experiment compared to the reference RCP8.5 model experiment. This reduction is higher than previous estimates and is due to increased forest cover in combination with climate and CO2 feedbacks. We find that reforestation leads to global annual mean temperatures being lower by 0.27 K in 2100. We find large annual mean warming reductions in sparsely populated areas, whereas reductions in temperature extremes are also large in densely populated areas.

[Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under future climate change].

PubMed

Liu, Jian-gong; Zhu, Qiu-an; Shen, Yan; Yang, Yan-zheng; Luo, Yun-peng; Peng, Chang-hui

2015-11-01

Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.

Which children receive vigabatrin? Characteristics of pediatric patients enrolled in the mandatory FDA registry.

PubMed

Pellock, John M; Faught, Edward; Foroozan, Rod; Sergott, Robert C; Shields, W Donald; Ziemann, Adam; Lee, Deborah; Dribinsky, Yekaterina; Torri, Sarah; Othman, Feisal; Isojarvi, Jouko

2016-07-01

Vigabatrin (Sabril®) is an antiepileptic drug (AED) currently indicated in the US as a monotherapy for patients 1month to 2years of age with infantile spasms (IS) and as adjunctive therapy for patients ≥10years of age with refractory complex partial seizures (rCPS) whose seizures have inadequately responded to several alternative treatments and for whom the potential benefits outweigh the risk of vision loss. The approval required an FDA mandated registry. This article describes 5years of demographic and treatment exposure data from US pediatric patients (<17years). Participation is mandatory for all US Sabril® prescribers and patients. A benefit-risk assessment must be documented for patient progression to maintenance therapy. This includes demographic diagnosis and reports of ophthalmologic assessments (where available). Patient data were grouped by age as proxies for indication (IS: <3years, rCPS: ≥3 to <17years). As of August 26, 2014, 5546/6823 enrolled patients were pediatric/total; 4472 (81%) were vigabatrin-naïve. Seventy-one percent of patients were <3years of age; 29% were ≥3 to <17years of age. Etiologies of IS were identified as cryptogenic (21%), symptomatic tuberous sclerosis (17%), and symptomatic other (42%). The majority of patients with IS (56%) attempted no prior treatments; 16% received adrenocorticotropic hormone prior to vigabatrin. A third of patients with IS were receiving 1 concomitant treatment with vigabatrin. For patients with rCPS, 39% attempted 1-3 prior treatments; 27% were receiving 2 concomitant treatments at enrollment. A total of 1852 (41%) patients did not undergo baseline ophthalmological assessment; 25% of patients with IS and 42% of patients with rCPS were exempted for neurologic disabilities. Kaplan-Meier estimates predict that 71% and 65% of vigabatrin-naïve patients with IS and rCPS, respectively, would remain in the registry at 6months. Most pediatric vigabatrin patients have IS as an underlying diagnosis, especially those <3years of age. A proportion of those with rCPS remain on long-term vigabatrin despite the risk of adverse events. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Spatiotemporal analysis of projected impacts of climate change on the major C3 and C4 crop yield under representative concentration pathway 4.5: Insight from the coasts of Tamil Nadu, South India

PubMed Central

A, Ramachandran; Praveen, Dhanya; R, Jaganathan; D, RajaLakshmi; K, Palanivelu

2017-01-01

India's dependence on a climate sensitive sector like agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to its impacts. However, agriculture is highly heterogeneous across the country owing to regional disparities in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is essential to know and quantify the possible impacts of changes in climate on crop yield for successful agricultural management and planning at a local scale. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) was employed to generate regional climate projections for the study area using the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The dynamics in potential impacts at the sub-district level were evaluated using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCPs). The aim of this study was to simulate the crop yield under a plausible change in climate for the coastal areas of South India through the end of this century. The crop simulation model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.5, was used to understand the plausible impacts on the major crop yields of rice, groundnuts, and sugarcane under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. The findings reveal that under the RCP 4.5 scenario there will be decreases in the major C3 and C4 crop yields in the study area. This would affect not only the local food security, but the livelihood security as well. This necessitates timely planning to achieve sustainable crop productivity and livelihood security. On the other hand, this situation warrants appropriate adaptations and policy intervention at the sub-district level for achieving sustainable crop productivity in the future. PMID:28753605

Spatiotemporal analysis of projected impacts of climate change on the major C3 and C4 crop yield under representative concentration pathway 4.5: Insight from the coasts of Tamil Nadu, South India.

PubMed

A, Ramachandran; Praveen, Dhanya; R, Jaganathan; D, RajaLakshmi; K, Palanivelu

2017-01-01

India's dependence on a climate sensitive sector like agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to its impacts. However, agriculture is highly heterogeneous across the country owing to regional disparities in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is essential to know and quantify the possible impacts of changes in climate on crop yield for successful agricultural management and planning at a local scale. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) was employed to generate regional climate projections for the study area using the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The dynamics in potential impacts at the sub-district level were evaluated using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCPs). The aim of this study was to simulate the crop yield under a plausible change in climate for the coastal areas of South India through the end of this century. The crop simulation model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.5, was used to understand the plausible impacts on the major crop yields of rice, groundnuts, and sugarcane under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. The findings reveal that under the RCP 4.5 scenario there will be decreases in the major C3 and C4 crop yields in the study area. This would affect not only the local food security, but the livelihood security as well. This necessitates timely planning to achieve sustainable crop productivity and livelihood security. On the other hand, this situation warrants appropriate adaptations and policy intervention at the sub-district level for achieving sustainable crop productivity in the future.

Respiratory care practitioners as primary providers of neonatal intubation in a community hospital: an analysis.

PubMed

Noblett, K E; Meibalane, R

1995-10-01

Respiratory care practitioners (RCPs) serve as the primary providers of neonatal endotracheal intubation (ETI) in our institution. ETIs are performed by registered respiratory therapists who have completed Pediatric Advanced Life Support and Neonatal Advanced Life Support training and have successfully completed 3 intubations under the direct supervision of a senior therapist. The purpose of this study was to (1) ascertain whether RCPs can successfully provide this type of service with acceptable complications rates and (2) survey the economic impact of this practice on patient charges in our hospital. An analysis of each intubation event in which an RCP participated was collected and compiled over a 5-month period (9-94 to 2-95). Calculations were made of the success rate and complications. A total of 38 ETIs were performed by the RCPs. Of these, 37 (97.4%) were performed with < or = 3 attempts; (73.7% with 1 attempt, 15.8% with 2 attempts, and 7.9% with 3 attempts). In only 1 event were more than 3 attempts required. There were no complications observed. RCPs can successfully serve as primary providers of neonatal ETI at a Level-II nursery in a community hospital, and this practice may result in a cost reduction.

Sources and processes contributing to nitrogen deposition: an adjoint model analysis applied to biodiversity hotspots worldwide.

PubMed

Paulot, Fabien; Jacob, Daniel J; Henze, Daven K

2013-04-02

Anthropogenic enrichment of reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition is an ecological concern. We use the adjoint of a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to identify the sources and processes that control Nr deposition to an ensemble of biodiversity hotspots worldwide and two U.S. national parks (Cuyahoga and Rocky Mountain). We find that anthropogenic sources dominate deposition at all continental sites and are mainly regional (less than 1000 km) in origin. In Hawaii, Nr supply is controlled by oceanic emissions of ammonia (50%) and anthropogenic sources (50%), with important contributions from Asia and North America. Nr deposition is also sensitive in complicated ways to emissions of SO2, which affect Nr gas-aerosol partitioning, and of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which affect oxidant concentrations and produce organic nitrate reservoirs. For example, VOC emissions generally inhibit deposition of locally emitted NOx but significantly increase Nr deposition downwind. However, in polluted boreal regions, anthropogenic VOC emissions can promote Nr deposition in winter. Uncertainties in chemical rate constants for OH + NO2 and NO2 hydrolysis also complicate the determination of source-receptor relationships for polluted sites in winter. Application of our adjoint sensitivities to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios for 2010-2050 indicates that future decreases in Nr deposition due to NOx emission controls will be offset by concurrent increases in ammonia emissions from agriculture.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

PubMed Central

Zwart, Sander J.; Hein, Lars

2018-01-01

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades. PMID:29513753

Complexity of the 5' Untranslated Region of EIF4A3, a Critical Factor for Craniofacial and Neural Development.

PubMed

Hsia, Gabriella S P; Musso, Camila M; Alvizi, Lucas; Brito, Luciano A; Kobayashi, Gerson S; Pavanello, Rita C M; Zatz, Mayana; Gardham, Alice; Wakeling, Emma; Zechi-Ceide, Roseli M; Bertola, Debora; Passos-Bueno, Maria Rita

2018-01-01

Repeats in coding and non-coding regions have increasingly been associated with many human genetic disorders, such as Richieri-Costa-Pereira syndrome (RCPS). RCPS, mostly characterized by midline cleft mandible, Robin sequence and limb defects, is an autosomal-recessive acrofacial dysostosis mainly reported in Brazilian patients. This disorder is caused by decreased levels of EIF4A3 , mostly due to an increased number of repeats at the EIF4A3 5'UTR. EIF4A3 5'UTR alleles are CG-rich and vary in size and organization of three types of motifs. An exclusive allelic pattern was identified among affected individuals, in which the CGCA-motif is the most prevalent, herein referred as "disease-associated CGCA-20nt motif." The origin of the pathogenic alleles containing the disease-associated motif, as well as the functional effects of the 5'UTR motifs on EIF4A3 expression, to date, are entirely unknown. Here, we characterized 43 different EIF4A3 5'UTR alleles in a cohort of 380 unaffected individuals. We identified eight heterozygous unaffected individuals harboring the disease-associated CGCA-20nt motif and our haplotype analyses indicate that there are more than one haplotype associated with RCPS. The combined analysis of number, motif organization and haplotypic diversity, as well as the observation of two apparently distinct haplotypes associated with the disease-associated CGCA-20nt motif, suggest that the RCPS alleles might have arisen from independent unequal crossing-over events between ancient alleles at least twice. Moreover, we have shown that the number and sequence of motifs in the 5'UTR region is associated with EIF4A3 repression, which is not mediated by CpG methylation. In conclusion, this study has shown that the large number of repeats in EIF4A3 does not represent a dynamic mutation and RCPS can arise in any population harboring alleles with the CGCA-20nt motif. We also provided further evidence that EIF4A3 5'UTR is a regulatory region and the size and sequence type of the repeats at 5'UTR may contribute to clinical variability in RCPS.

Vigabatrin pediatric dosing information for refractory complex partial seizures: results from a population dose-response analysis.

PubMed

Nielsen, Jace C; Tolbert, Dwain; Patel, Mahlaqa; Kowalski, Kenneth G; Wesche, David L

2014-12-01

We predicted vigabatrin dosages for adjunctive therapy for pediatric patients with refractory complex partial seizures (rCPS) that would produce efficacy comparable to that observed for approved adult dosages. A dose-response model related seizure-count data to vigabatrin dosage to identify dosages for pediatric rCPS patients. Seizure-count data were obtained from three pediatric and two adult rCPS clinical trials. Dosages were predicted for oral solution and tablet formulations. Predicted oral solution dosages to achieve efficacy comparable to that of a 1 g/day adult dosage were 350 and 450 mg/day for patients with body weight ranges 10-15 and >15-20 kg, respectively. Predicted oral solution dosages for efficacy comparable to a 3 g/day adult dosage were 1,050 and 1,300 mg/day for weight ranges 10-15 and >15-20 kg, respectively. Predicted tablet dosage for efficacy comparable to a 1 g/day adult dosage was 500 mg/day for weight ranges 25-60 kg. Predicted tablet dosage for efficacy comparable to a 3 g/day adult dosage was 2,000 mg for weight ranges 25-60 kg. Vigabatrin dosages were identified for pediatric rCPS patients with body weights ≥10 kg. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2014 International League Against Epilepsy.

Expert Elicitations of 2100 Emission of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Emily; Bosetti, Valentina; Budescu, David; Keller, Klaus; van Vuuren, Detlef

2017-04-01

Emission scenarios such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used intensively for climate research (e.g. climate change projections) and policy analysis. While the range of these scenarios provides an indication of uncertainty, these scenarios are typically not associated with probability values. Some studies (e.g. Vuuren et al, 2007; Gillingham et al., 2015) took a different approach associating baseline emission pathways (conditionally) with probability distributions. This paper summarizes three studies where climate change experts were asked to conduct pair-wise comparisons of possible ranges of 2100 greenhouse gas emissions and rate the relative likelihood of the ranges. The elicitation was performed under two sets of assumptions: 1) a situation where no climate policies are introduced beyond the ones already in place (baseline scenario), and 2) a situation in which countries have ratified the voluntary policies in line with the long term target embedded in the 2015 Paris Agreement. These indirect relative judgments were used to construct subjective cumulative distribution functions. We show that by using a ratio scaling method that invokes relative likelihoods of scenarios, a subjective probability distribution can be derived for each expert that expresses their beliefs in the projected greenhouse gas emissions range in 2100. This method is shown to elicit stable estimates that require minimal adjustment and is relatively invariant to the partition of the domain of interest. Experts also rated the method as being easy and intuitive to use. We also report results of a study that allowed participants to choose their own ranges of greenhouse gas emissions to remove potential anchoring bias. We discuss the implications of the use of this method for facilitating comparison and communication of beliefs among diverse users of climate science research.

Regional climate projections for Northeast India: an appraisal from CORDEX South Asia experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, D.; Dimri, A. P.

2017-11-01

An appraisal of the recent changes in the present climate (1970-2005) followed by the possible future (2006-2100) changes in the climate has been carried out in the current study using the observations and regional climate model (REMO) over the Northeast Indian region. The regional climate model simulation has been used from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework. A consistent warming for the winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) and post-monsoon (October and November (ON)) has been observed for the present climate especially in the northern and eastern parts of the region. The changes in the near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) temperature climatology suggest a rise in temperature by 3-8 °C across different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The rate of long-term (1970-2099) increase in temperature has been found ranging between 0.01 and 0.07 °C/year across the region in the least emission (RCP2.6) to strongest emission (RCP8.5) scenarios. The daily mean precipitation statistics suggests an overall increasing trends of precipitation during the pre-monsoon (March, April, and May (MAM)) for the present across the region with a mixed trend in other seasons. A change in daily mean precipitation ranging from - 60% (during winter) to + 40% during post-monsoon has been projected by the model across different RCPs. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a strong deficit in precipitation in the warmer climate across the region as compared to RCP2.6. This fact is also confirmed from the long-term trend of precipitation where a consistent decreasing trend dominates in the RCP4.5- and RCP8.5-simulated precipitations by the end of the twenty-first century. A large model bias in temperature and precipitation along with high amount of uncertainty is associated with the model simulations; thus, in order to use the projections, a more careful approach to improve the utility of downscaled product should be adopted.

The global pyrogenic carbon cycle and its impact on the level of atmospheric CO2 over past and future centuries.

PubMed

Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Matthews, H Damon

2017-08-01

The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO 2 were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate-carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year-2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11-154), 47 (2-64), and 1129 (90-5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC-related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming-induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4-8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO 2 (by 1-9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO 2 decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5-8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 . © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

East Asia winter climate changes under RCP scenarios in terms of East Asian winter monsoon indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J. B.; Hong, J. Y.

2016-12-01

The changes in the winter climatology and variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) for the late 21st century (2070-2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are projected in terms of EAWM indices (EAWMIs). Firstly, the capability of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the boreal winter climatology and the interannual variability of the EAWM for the late 20th century (1971-2000) is examined. Nine of twenty-three climate models are selected based on the pattern correlations with observation and a multi-model ensemble is applied to the nine model data. Three of twelve EAWMIs that show the most significant temporal correlations between the observation and CMIP5 surface air temperatures are utilized. The ensemble CMIP5 is capable of reproducing the overall features of the EAWM in spite of some biases in the region. The negative correlations between the EAWMIs and boreal winter temperature are well reproduced and 3-5 years of the major interannual variation observed in this region are also well simulated according to power spectral analyses of the simulated indices. The regressed fields of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential height, and 300-hPa zonal wind are well established with pattern correlations above 0.83 between CMIP5 and observation data. The differences between RCPs and Historical indicate strong warming, which increases with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 5°C under RCP4.5 and from 3°C to 7°C under RCP8.5 in the East Asian region. The anomalous southerly winds generally become stronger, implying weaker EAWMs in both scenarios. These features are also identified with fields regressed onto the indices in RCPs. The future projections reveal that the interannual variability of the indices will be maintained with intensity similar to that of the present. AcknowledgmentsThis work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ012293)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

Bridging the Gap between Policy-Driven Land Use Changes and Regional Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berckmans, J.; Hamdi, R.; Dendoncker, N.; Ceulemans, R.

2017-12-01

Land use land cover changes (LULCC) can impact the regional climate by two mechanisms: biogeochemical and biogeophysical. The biogeochemical mechanism of the LULCC alters the chemical composition of the atmosphere by greenhouse gas emissions. The biogeophysical mechanism forces changes in the heat and moisture transfer between the land and the atmosphere. The different representations of the future LULCC under influence of the biogeochemical mechanism are included in the IPCC Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In contrast, the RCPs do not incorporate the biogeophysical effects. Although considerable research has been devoted to the biogeophysical effects of LULCC on climate, less attention has been paid to assessing the full (both biogeochemical and biogeophysical) LULCC impact on the regional climate in modeling studies. Due to the large variety of small changes in the landscape of Western Europe, the small scale climate impact by the LULCC has been achieved using high-resolution scenarios. The "ALARM" project that was governed by the European Commission generated LULCC data on a resolution of 250x250 m for three time steps: 2020, 2050 and 2080. The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model has been downscaled to perform simulations with ALARO-SURFEX for the near-term future. Both climate changes and land cover changes have been assessed based on RCP and ALARM scenarios. The use of the land surface model SURFEX with its tiling approach allowed us to accurately represent the small scale changes in the landscape. The largest landscape changes contain the abandonment of agricultural land and the increase in forestry and urban areas. Our results show that the conversions from rural areas to urban areas and arable land to forest in Western Europe considerable affect the near-surface temperature and to a lesser extent the precipitation. These results are related to modifications demonstrated in the surface energy budget. The LULCC have a significant impact compared to the near-term future climate changes. They provide valuable information for landscape planning to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The strength of this study is the use of policy-driven LULCC data combined with an accurate representation of the land by the climate model.

Future changes over the Himalayas: Mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.; Kumar, D.; Choudhary, A.; Maharana, P.

2018-03-01

An assessment of the projection of near surface air temperature over the Himalayan region from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment- South Asia (hereafter, CORDEX-SA) regional climate model (RCM) experiments have been carried out for different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The purpose of this study is to assess the probable future changes in the mean temperature climatology and its long term trend for different seasons under greenhouse gas forcing scenarios for different seasons till the end of 21st century. A number of statistical measures such as changes in mean climatology, long term trend and probability distribution function have been used in order to detect the signals of changes in climate. Moreover, the associated uncertainties among different model experiments and their ensemble in space, time and different seasons in particular have been quantified. Despite of strong cold bias in the model experiments over Himalayan region (Nengker et al., 2017), statistically significant strong rate of warming (0.03-0.09 °C/year) across all the seasons and RCPs have been projected by all the models and their ensemble. Season specific response towards the warming is indicated by ensemble under future climate while ON season shows comparable magnitude of warming than DJF. Such warming intensifies with the increase in the radiative forcing under a range of greenhouse gas scenarios from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. In addition to this, a wide range of spatial variability and disagreements in the trend magnitude between different models describes the uncertainty associated with the model projections and scenarios. A substantial seasonal response to warming with respect to elevation was also found, as DJF season followed by ON portrays highest rate of warming, specifically at higher elevation sites such as western Himalayas and northern part of central Himalayas. The different elevation classes respond differently to the projected future warming under different RCPs and seasons. Such higher warming during DJF may have consequences as changes in the fractional distribution of the solid and liquid precipitation as well as the melting of the glacial deposits with ultimately affecting the streamflow response and water resources in the downstream areas.

Downscaling of daily precipitation using a hybrid model of Artificial Neural Network, Wavelet, and Quantile Mapping in Gharehsoo River Basin, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taie Semiromi, M.; Koch, M.

2017-12-01

Although linear/regression statistical downscaling methods are very straightforward and widely used, and they can be applied to a single predictor-predictand pair or spatial fields of predictors-predictands, the greatest constraint is the requirement of a normal distribution of the predictor and the predictand values, which means that it cannot be used to predict the distribution of daily rainfall because it is typically non-normal. To tacked with such a limitation, the current study aims to introduce a new developed hybrid technique taking advantages from Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Wavelet and Quantile Mapping (QM) for downscaling of daily precipitation for 10 rain-gauge stations located in Gharehsoo River Basin, Iran. With the purpose of daily precipitation downscaling, the study makes use of Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) developed by Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma). Climate projections are available for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) namely RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for up to 2100. In this regard, 26 National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis large-scale variables which have potential physical relationships with precipitation, were selected as candidate predictors. Afterwards, predictor screening was conducted using correlation, partial correlation and explained variance between predictors and predictand (precipitation). Depending on each rain-gauge station between two and three predictors were selected which their decomposed details (D) and approximation (A) obtained from discrete wavelet analysis were fed as inputs to the neural networks. After downscaling of daily precipitation, bias correction was conducted using quantile mapping. Out of the complete time series available, i.e. 1978-2005, two third of which namely 1978-1996 was used for calibration of QM and the reminder, i.e. 1997-2005 was considered for the validation. Result showed that the proposed hybrid method supported by QM for bias-correction could quite satisfactorily simulate daily precipitation. Also, results indicated that under all RCPs, precipitation will be more or less than 12% decreased by 2100. However, precipitation will be less decreased under RCP 8.5 compared with RCP 4.5.

Response of terrestrial hydrology to climate and permafrost change for the 21st century as simulated by JSBACH offline experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blome, Tanja; Hagemann, Stefan; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian

2015-04-01

Permafrost (PF) or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. In terms of hydrology, changes in permafrost characteristics may lead to contradicting effects. E.g., observations show that the deepening of the Active Layer (AL) can both decrease and increase soil moisture, depending on the specific conditions. For the investigation of hydrological changes in response to climatic and thus PF change, it is therefore necessary to use a model. To address this response of the terrestrial hydrology to projected changes for the 21st century, the global land surface model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, JSBACH, was used to simulate several future climate scenarios. JSBACH recently has been equipped with important physical PF processes, such as the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In order to identify hydrological impacts originating solely in the physical forcing, experiments were conducted in an offline mode and with fixed vegetation cover. Feedback mechanisms, e.g. via the carbon cycle, were thus excluded. The uncertainty range arising through different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as well as through different GCMs was addressed through the use of combinations of two RCPs and two GCMs as driving data. Analysis will focus on hydrological variables and related quantities.

Future changes over the Himalayas: Maximum and minimum temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.; Kumar, D.; Choudhary, A.; Maharana, P.

2018-03-01

An assessment of the projection of minimum and maximum air temperature over the Indian Himalayan region (IHR) from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment- South Asia (hereafter, CORDEX-SA) regional climate model (RCM) experiments have been carried out under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The major aim of this study is to assess the probable future changes in the minimum and maximum climatology and its long-term trend under different RCPs along with the elevation dependent warming over the IHR. A number of statistical analysis such as changes in mean climatology, long-term spatial trend and probability distribution function are carried out to detect the signals of changes in climate. The study also tries to quantify the uncertainties associated with different model experiments and their ensemble in space, time and for different seasons. The model experiments and their ensemble show prominent cold bias over Himalayas for present climate. However, statistically significant higher warming rate (0.23-0.52 °C/decade) for both minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmin and Tmax) is observed for all the seasons under both RCPs. The rate of warming intensifies with the increase in the radiative forcing under a range of greenhouse gas scenarios starting from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5. In addition to this, a wide range of spatial variability and disagreements in the magnitude of trend between different models describes the uncertainty associated with the model projections and scenarios. The projected rate of increase of Tmin may destabilize the snow formation at the higher altitudes in the northern and western parts of Himalayan region, while rising trend of Tmax over southern flank may effectively melt more snow cover. Such combined effect of rising trend of Tmin and Tmax may pose a potential threat to the glacial deposits. The overall trend of Diurnal temperature range (DTR) portrays increasing trend across entire area with highest magnitude under RCP8.5. This higher rate of increase is imparted from the predominant rise of Tmax as compared to Tmin.

Hand washing and use of gloves while managing patients receiving mechanical ventilation in the ICU.

PubMed

Khatib, M; Jamaleddine, G; Abdallah, A; Ibrahim, Y

1999-07-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of warning labels permanently attached to mechanical ventilators in improving the practice of hand washing and use of gloves by respiratory care practitioners (RCPs) in the ICU. The study consisted of two 4-week periods. Daily observations of hand washing and use of gloves by RCPs were made over four 1-h observation periods. Prior to the first 4-week period, the importance of hand washing and use of gloves was presented to all staff. At the end of the first period, "Wash Hands Use Gloves" labels were permanently placed on all ventilators in the ICU. The RCPs were not aware they were being observed for hand washing and use of gloves in either period. The total number of encounters between the RCPs and patients as well as the rates of hand washing and use of gloves were obtained during the study. The rates of hand washing and use of gloves were significantly higher during the second period when labels were attached to the ventilators, as compared to the rates during the first period: hand washing, 92% vs 46% (p < 0.05); use of gloves, 92% vs 43% (p < 0.05), respectively. During the first period, the rates of pre-encounter hand washing (78%, 48%, 27%, and 29% in weeks 1 through 4, respectively) and the use of gloves (56%, 37%, 32%, and 45% in weeks 1 through 4, respectively) were primarily declining. This was not observed during the second period of the study (94%, 88%, 95%, and 92% in weeks 1 through 4, respectively) for the rates of pre-encounter hand washing and the use of gloves. Simple measures such as the placement of warning labels on mechanical ventilators can significantly improve hand washing and use of gloves by RCPs in the ICU.

Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

2017-04-01

Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.

Assessing Future Hydrological Changes in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Rhosanna

2017-04-01

Changes in precipitation will be one of the most significant factors in determining the overall impact of global climate change but are also one of the most uncertain and difficult to project. The reliability of global climate models (GCMs) for predicting changes in rainfall is particularly concerning for East Africa. This research focuses on Kenya's Tana River Basin and aims to project the impacts of climate change upon the hydrology in order to inform national climate change adaptation plans. The Tana basin has been identified as crucial for Kenya's development, with increased irrigated agriculture and additional dams planned. The area is also important for biodiversity and contains already-threatened ecosystems and endemic species. Kenya is already a water-scarce country and demand for water is expected to increase in the future as the country develops. Therefore, examining changes to precipitation with climate change is vital. The WaterWorld Policy Support System (http://www.policysupport.org/waterworld), a physically-based hydrological model, has been used to determine annual and monthly changes in hydrology. WaterWorld utilises the WorldClim (Hijmans et al., 2005) climate projections for the latest generation of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) to characterise the temperature and precipitation changes. In order to better understand the high uncertainties in projections of climate change, the full range of latest emissions scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) were used to force the WaterWorld model. The WorldClim baseline values were evaluated by comparing them to observations and were found to correctly represent the annual cycle of precipitation. In addition, the CRU TS3.22 data (Harris et al., 2014) have also been examined and provide a valuable comparison to the WorldClim dataset. These simulations encompass a broad range of climate projections, but show a general trend towards increased precipitation in the Tana River Basin. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean for all RCPs suggests that there will be increases in precipitation by the 2050s, with the annual basin-average rainfall increasing between 112% (RCP2.6) and 149% (RCP8.5). As the precipitation in East Africa is highly seasonal, examining monthly changes is also important. Drying is projected in some months, whereas wetter conditions are projected in others. Average precipitation changes do not vary greatly between the RCPs, but there are large discrepancies between individual GCMs, with some models even disagreeing on the sign of precipitation change (i.e. positive or negative relative to the baseline). Between-model differences in the magnitude of precipitation change are also substantial. This large variation in anomalies of projected precipitation demonstrates the uncertainty in CMIP5 GCM outputs for the area and has important implications for water resources management and policy. Robust management decisions will need to be made in the face of this considerable uncertainty. Policies that allow for adaptability and a wide range of possible future outcomes are paramount.

Rates of Cerebral Protein Synthesis in Primary Visual Cortex during Sleep-Dependent Memory Consolidation, a Study in Human Subjects.

PubMed

Picchioni, Dante; Schmidt, Kathleen C; McWhirter, Kelly K; Loutaev, Inna; Pavletic, Adriana J; Speer, Andrew M; Zametkin, Alan J; Miao, Ning; Bishu, Shrinivas; Turetsky, Kate M; Morrow, Anne S; Nadel, Jeffrey L; Evans, Brittney C; Vesselinovitch, Diana M; Sheeler, Carrie A; Balkin, Thomas J; Smith, Carolyn B

2018-05-15

If protein synthesis during sleep is required for sleep-dependent memory consolidation, we might expect rates of cerebral protein synthesis (rCPS) to increase during sleep in the local brain circuits that support performance on a particular task following training on that task. To measure circuit-specific brain protein synthesis during a daytime nap opportunity, we used the L-[1-(11)C]leucine positron emission tomography (PET) method with simultaneous polysomnography. We trained subjects on the visual texture discrimination task (TDT). This was followed by a nap opportunity during the PET scan, and we retested them later in the day after the scan. The TDT is considered retinotopically specific, so we hypothesized that higher rCPS in primary visual cortex would be observed in the trained hemisphere compared to the untrained hemisphere in subjects who were randomized to a sleep condition. Our results indicate that the changes in rCPS in primary visual cortex depended on whether subjects were in the wakefulness or sleep condition but were independent of the side of the visual field trained. That is, only in the subjects randomized to sleep, rCPS in the right primary visual cortex was higher than the left regardless of side trained. Other brain regions examined were not so affected. In the subjects who slept, performance on the TDT improved similarly regardless of the side trained. Results indicate a regionally selective and sleep-dependent effect that occurs with improved performance on the TDT.

Keep up or drown: adjustment of western Pacific coral reefs to sea-level rise in the 21st century

PubMed Central

van Woesik, R.; Golbuu, Y.; Roff, G.

2015-01-01

Since the Mid-Holocene, some 5000 years ago, coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean have been vertically constrained by sea level. Contemporary sea-level rise is releasing these constraints, providing accommodation space for vertical reef expansion. Here, we show that Porites microatolls, from reef-flat environments in Palau (western Pacific Ocean), are ‘keeping up’ with contemporary sea-level rise. Measurements of 570 reef-flat Porites microatolls at 10 locations around Palau revealed recent vertical skeletal extension (78±13 mm) over the last 6–8 years, which is consistent with the timing of the recent increase in sea level. We modelled whether microatoll growth rates will potentially ‘keep up’ with predicted sea-level rise in the near future, based upon average growth, and assuming a decline in growth for every 1°C increase in temperature. We then compared these estimated extension rates with rates of sea-level rise under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model suggests that under low–mid RCP scenarios, reef-coral growth will keep up with sea-level rise, but if greenhouse gas concentrations exceed 670 ppm atmospheric CO2 levels and with +2.2°C sea-surface temperature by 2100 (RCP 6.0 W m−2), our predictions indicate that Porites microatolls will be unable to keep up with projected rates of sea-level rise in the twenty-first century. PMID:26587277

Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehlen, M.; Séférian, R.; Jones, D. O. B.; Roy, T.; Roth, R.; Barry, J.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J. P.; Heinze, C.; Joos, F.; Orr, J. C.; Resplandy, L.; Segschneider, J.; Tjiputra, J.

2014-06-01

This study aims at evaluating the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully-coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding -0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environment. We report major potential consequences of pH reductions for deep-sea biodiversity hotspots, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100 and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5 pH reductions exceeding -0.2, (respectively -0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~ 15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~ 8% (3%) of seamounts - including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation.

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; ...

2016-08-01

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Stochastic extreme downscaling model for an assessment of changes in rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves over South Korea using multiple regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lima, Carlos H. R.

2017-10-01

A conditional copula function based downscaling model in a fully Bayesian framework is developed in this study to evaluate future changes in intensity-duration frequency (IDF) curves in South Korea. The model incorporates a quantile mapping approach for bias correction while integrated Bayesian inference allows accounting for parameter uncertainties. The proposed approach is used to temporally downscale expected changes in daily rainfall, inferred from multiple CORDEX-RCMs based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, into sub-daily temporal scales. Among the CORDEX-RCMs, a noticeable increase in rainfall intensity is observed in the HadGem3-RA (9%), RegCM (28%), and SNU_WRF (13%) on average, whereas no noticeable changes are observed in the GRIMs (-2%) for the period 2020-2050. More specifically, a 5-30% increase in rainfall intensity is expected in all of the CORDEX-RCMs for 50-year return values under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Uncertainty in simulated rainfall intensity gradually decreases toward the longer durations, which is largely associated with the enhanced strength of the relationship with the 24-h annual maximum rainfalls (AMRs). A primary advantage of the proposed model is that projected changes in future rainfall intensities are well preserved.

EnviroAtlas - Minimum Temperature 1950 - 2099 for the Conterminous United States

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EnviroAtlas Climate Scenarios were generated from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) ensemble averages (the average of over 30 available climate models) for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the contiguous U.S. at 30 arc-second (approx. 800 m2) spatial resolution. NEX-DCP30 mean monthly minimum temperature for the 4 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were organized by season (Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall) and annually for the years 2006 00e2?? 2099. Additionally, mean monthly minimum temperature for the ensemble average of all historic runs is organized similarly for the years 1950 00e2?? 2005. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) or as an EnviroAtlas map service. Additional descriptive information about each attribute in this dataset can be found in its associated EnviroAtlas Fact Sheet (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-fact-sheets).

EnviroAtlas - Precipitation 1950 - 2099 for the Conterminous United States

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EnviroAtlas Climate Scenarios were generated from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) ensemble averages (the average of over 30 available climate models) for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the contiguous U.S. at 30 arc-second (approx. 800 m2) spatial resolution. NEX-DCP30 mean monthly precipitation rate for the 4 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were organized by season (Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall) and annually for the years 2006 00e2?? 2099. Additionally, mean monthly precipitation rate for the ensemble average of all historic runs is organized similarly for the years 1950 00e2?? 2005. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) or as an EnviroAtlas map service. Additional descriptive information about each attribute in this dataset can be found in its associated EnviroAtlas Fact Sheet (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-fact-sheets).

EnviroAtlas - Maximum Temperature 1950 - 2099 for the Conterminous United States

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EnviroAtlas Climate Scenarios were generated from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) ensemble averages (the average of over 30 available climate models) for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the contiguous U.S. at 30 arc-second (approx. 800 m2) spatial resolution. NEX-DCP30 mean monthly maximum temperature for the 4 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were organized by season (Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall) and annually for the years 2006 00e2?? 2099. Additionally, mean monthly maximum temperature for the ensemble average of all historic runs is organized similarly for the years 1950 00e2?? 2005. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) or as an EnviroAtlas map service. Additional descriptive information about each attribute in this dataset can be found in its associated EnviroAtlas Fact Sheet (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-fact-sheets).

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China

PubMed Central

Li, Lin; Zhao, Yao; Pei, Lin; Zhao, Jiancheng

2016-01-01

Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the “very good” category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time. PMID:27661983

Inter-sectoral comparison of model uncertainty of climate change impacts in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Griensven, Ann; Vetter, Tobias; Piontek, Franzisca; Gosling, Simon N.; Kamali, Bahareh; Reinhardt, Julia; Dinkneh, Aklilu; Yang, Hong; Alemayehu, Tadesse

2016-04-01

We present the model results and their uncertainties of an inter-sectoral impact model inter-comparison initiative (ISI-MIP) for climate change impacts in Africa. The study includes results on hydrological, crop and health aspects. The impact models used ensemble inputs consisting of 20 time series of daily rainfall and temperature data obtained from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 Representative concentration pathway (RCP). In this study, we analysed model uncertainty for the Regional Hydrological Models, Global Hydrological Models, Malaria models and Crop models. For the regional hydrological models, we used 2 African test cases: the Blue Nile in Eastern Africa and the Niger in Western Africa. For both basins, the main sources of uncertainty are originating from the GCM and RCPs, while the uncertainty of the regional hydrological models is relatively low. The hydrological model uncertainty becomes more important when predicting changes on low flows compared to mean or high flows. For the other sectors, the impact models have the largest share of uncertainty compared to GCM and RCP, especially for Malaria and crop modelling. The overall conclusion of the ISI-MIP is that it is strongly advised to use ensemble modeling approach for climate change impact studies throughout the whole modelling chain.

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; ...

2015-04-01

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hanqing; Tian, Zhan; Zhong, Honglin; Fan, Dongli; Shi, Runhe; Niu, Yilong; He, Xiaogang; Chen, Maosi

2017-09-01

Peanut is one of the major edible vegetable oil crops in China, whose growth and yield are very sensitive to climate change. In addition, agriculture climate resources are expected to be redistributed under climate change, which will further influence the growth, development, cropping patterns, distribution and production of peanut. In this study, we used the DSSAT-Peanut model to examine the climate change impacts on peanut production, oil industry and oil food security in China. This model is first calibrated using site observations including 31 years' (1981-2011) climate, soil and agronomy data. This calibrated model is then employed to simulate the future peanut yield based on 20 climate scenarios from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed by the InterSectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) driven by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate that the irrigated peanut yield will decrease 2.6% under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 9.9% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 29% under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, the rain-fed peanut yield will also decrease, with a 2.5% reduction under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 11.5% reduction under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 30% reduction under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively.

Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, Hamed R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Feldman, David L.; Sweet, William; Matthew, Richard A.; Luke, Adam

2015-11-01

Mean sea level has risen tenfold in recent decades compared to the most recent millennia, posing a serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. An increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has also been reported due to the reduced gap between high tidal datums and flood stage, and the rate of sea level rise (SLR) is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gases emissions. Nuisance flooding (NF), however nondestructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take projected near-term (2030) and midterm (2050) SLR under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, to estimate the increase in NF. The results suggest that on average, - 80 ± 10% local SLR causes the median of the NF distribution to increase by 55 ± 35% in 2050 under RCP8.5. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks in coastal regions.

A Noncoding Expansion in EIF4A3 Causes Richieri-Costa-Pereira Syndrome, a Craniofacial Disorder Associated with Limb Defects

PubMed Central

Favaro, Francine P.; Alvizi, Lucas; Zechi-Ceide, Roseli M.; Bertola, Debora; Felix, Temis M.; de Souza, Josiane; Raskin, Salmo; Twigg, Stephen R.F.; Weiner, Andrea M.J.; Armas, Pablo; Margarit, Ezequiel; Calcaterra, Nora B.; Andersen, Gregers R.; McGowan, Simon J.; Wilkie, Andrew O.M.; Richieri-Costa, Antonio; de Almeida, Maria L.G.; Passos-Bueno, Maria Rita

2014-01-01

Richieri-Costa-Pereira syndrome is an autosomal-recessive acrofacial dysostosis characterized by mandibular median cleft associated with other craniofacial anomalies and severe limb defects. Learning and language disabilities are also prevalent. We mapped the mutated gene to a 122 kb region at 17q25.3 through identity-by-descent analysis in 17 genealogies. Sequencing strategies identified an expansion of a region with several repeats of 18- or 20-nucleotide motifs in the 5′ untranslated region (5′ UTR) of EIF4A3, which contained from 14 to 16 repeats in the affected individuals and from 3 to 12 repeats in 520 healthy individuals. A missense substitution of a highly conserved residue likely to affect the interaction of eIF4AIII with the UPF3B subunit of the exon junction complex in trans with an expanded allele was found in an unrelated individual with an atypical presentation, thus expanding mutational mechanisms and phenotypic diversity of RCPS. EIF4A3 transcript abundance was reduced in both white blood cells and mesenchymal cells of RCPS-affected individuals as compared to controls. Notably, targeting the orthologous eif4a3 in zebrafish led to underdevelopment of several craniofacial cartilage and bone structures, in agreement with the craniofacial alterations seen in RCPS. Our data thus suggest that RCPS is caused by mutations in EIF4A3 and show that EIF4A3, a gene involved in RNA metabolism, plays a role in mandible, laryngeal, and limb morphogenesis. PMID:24360810

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

Consumptive water footprint and virtual water trade scenarios for China - With a focus on crop production, consumption and trade.

PubMed

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-09-01

The study assesses green and blue water footprints (WFs) and virtual water (VW) trade in China under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050, with a focus on crop production, consumption and trade. We consider five driving factors of change: climate, harvested crop area, technology, diet, and population. Four scenarios (S1-S4) are constructed by making use of three of IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-SSP3) and two of IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and taking 2005 as the baseline year. Results show that, across the four scenarios and for most crops, the green and blue WFs per tonne will decrease compared to the baseline year, due to the projected crop yield increase, which is driven by the higher precipitation and CO2 concentration under the two RCPs and the foreseen uptake of better technology. The WF per capita related to food consumption decreases in all scenarios. Changing to the less-meat diet can generate a reduction in the WF of food consumption of 44% by 2050. In all scenarios, as a result of the projected increase in crop yields and thus overall growth in crop production, China will reverse its role from net VW importer to net VW exporter. However, China will remain a big net VW importer related to soybean, which accounts for 5% of the WF of Chinese food consumption (in S1) by 2050. All scenarios show that China could attain a high degree of food self-sufficiency while simultaneously reducing water consumption in agriculture. However, the premise of realizing the presented scenarios is smart water and cropland management, effective and coherent policies on water, agriculture and infrastructure, and, as in scenario S1, a shift to a diet containing less meat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices.

PubMed

Grillakis, Manolis G; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G; Tsanis, Ioannis K

2016-08-01

Climate and weather patterns are an essential resource for outdoor tourism activities. The projected changes in climate and weather patterns are expected to affect the future state of tourism. The present study aims to quantify the positive or negative effect of a 2 °C global warming on summertime climate comfort in the sense of exercising activities that involve light body activity. The well-established Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) and three variants of the widely used Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) were analyzed. Additionally, a new index based on TCI and CIT was tested and compared against the precious indices. Past and future climate data of five high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) from different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Euro-CORDEX) for a +2 °C period were used. The results indicate improvement in the climate comfort for the majority of European areas for the May to October period. For the June to August period, central and northern European areas are projected to improve, while marginal improvement is found for Mediterranean countries. Furthermore, in specific cases of adjacent Mediterranean areas such as the southern Iberian Peninsula, the June to August climate favorability is projected to reduce as a result of the increase to daytime temperature. The use of a set of different indices and different RCMs and RCPs samples a large fraction of the uncertainty that is crucial for providing robust regional impact information due to climate change. The analysis revealed the similarities and the differences in the magnitude of change across the different indices. Moreover, discrepancies were found in the results of different concentration pathways to the +2 °C global warming, with the RCP8.5 projecting more significant changes for some of the analyzed indices. The estimation of the TCI using different timescale climate data did not change the results on tourism significantly.

Carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew

2018-03-01

Carbon-climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al. 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon-climate feedbacks will also influence the future ocean acidification trajectory. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with an Earth system model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon-climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of undersaturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under the high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6), the carbon-climate feedbacks advance the onset of surface water under saturation and the decline in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impacts of the carbon-climate feedbacks are most significant for the medium- (RCP4.5) and low-emissions (RCP2.6) scenarios. For the RCP4.5 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water undersaturated with respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For the RCP2.6 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of undersaturated surface water by 20 %. The sensitivity of ocean acidification to the carbon-climate feedbacks in the low to medium emission scenarios is important because recent CO2 emission reduction commitments are trying to transition emissions to such a scenario. Our study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon-climate feedbacks and ensure we do not underestimate the projected ocean acidification.

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 - Part 2: Aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Righi, Mattia; Hendricks, Johannes; Sausen, Robert

2016-04-01

We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications) to simulate the impact of aviation emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare our findings with the results of a previous study with the same model configuration focusing on year 2000 emissions. We also characterize the aviation results in the context of the other transport sectors presented in a companion paper. In spite of a relevant increase in aviation traffic volume and resulting emissions of aerosol (black carbon) and aerosol precursor species (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), the aviation effect on particle mass concentration in 2030 remains quite negligible (on the order of a few ng m-3), about 1 order of magnitude less than the increase in concentration due to other emission sources. Due to the relatively small size of the aviation-induced aerosol, however, the increase in particle number concentration is significant in all scenarios (about 1000 cm-3), mostly affecting the northern mid-latitudes at typical flight altitudes (7-12 km). This largely contributes to the overall change in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030, which also results in significant climate effects due to aerosol-cloud interactions. Aviation is the only transport sector for which a larger impact on the Earth's radiation budget is simulated in the future: the aviation-induced radiative forcing in 2030 is more than doubled with respect to the year 2000 value of -15 mW m-2 in all scenarios, with a maximum value of -63 mW m-2 simulated for RCP2.6.

A noncoding expansion in EIF4A3 causes Richieri-Costa-Pereira syndrome, a craniofacial disorder associated with limb defects.

PubMed

Favaro, Francine P; Alvizi, Lucas; Zechi-Ceide, Roseli M; Bertola, Debora; Felix, Temis M; de Souza, Josiane; Raskin, Salmo; Twigg, Stephen R F; Weiner, Andrea M J; Armas, Pablo; Margarit, Ezequiel; Calcaterra, Nora B; Andersen, Gregers R; McGowan, Simon J; Wilkie, Andrew O M; Richieri-Costa, Antonio; de Almeida, Maria L G; Passos-Bueno, Maria Rita

2014-01-02

Richieri-Costa-Pereira syndrome is an autosomal-recessive acrofacial dysostosis characterized by mandibular median cleft associated with other craniofacial anomalies and severe limb defects. Learning and language disabilities are also prevalent. We mapped the mutated gene to a 122 kb region at 17q25.3 through identity-by-descent analysis in 17 genealogies. Sequencing strategies identified an expansion of a region with several repeats of 18- or 20-nucleotide motifs in the 5' untranslated region (5' UTR) of EIF4A3, which contained from 14 to 16 repeats in the affected individuals and from 3 to 12 repeats in 520 healthy individuals. A missense substitution of a highly conserved residue likely to affect the interaction of eIF4AIII with the UPF3B subunit of the exon junction complex in trans with an expanded allele was found in an unrelated individual with an atypical presentation, thus expanding mutational mechanisms and phenotypic diversity of RCPS. EIF4A3 transcript abundance was reduced in both white blood cells and mesenchymal cells of RCPS-affected individuals as compared to controls. Notably, targeting the orthologous eif4a3 in zebrafish led to underdevelopment of several craniofacial cartilage and bone structures, in agreement with the craniofacial alterations seen in RCPS. Our data thus suggest that RCPS is caused by mutations in EIF4A3 and show that EIF4A3, a gene involved in RNA metabolism, plays a role in mandible, laryngeal, and limb morphogenesis. Copyright © 2014 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the possible influence of future climate changes on biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noda, H. M.; Nishina, K.; Ito, A.

2015-12-01

In recent decades, climate change has progressed worldwide and their influences on ecosystem structure and function that provide various goods and services to humans' well-being are of the greatest concerns. The ecosystem function and services are tightly coupled with the biodiversity, particularly via food web and biogeochemical cycles and here carbon is one of the central elements. The photosynthetic carbon fixation by plants, which forms the basis of the food web, is known to be highly sensitive to meteorological changes including radiation, temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration. Thus an analysis of the effect of future climate change on the carbon cycle processes including photosynthetic production in a biogeographical region, which is important from the viewpoint of the biodiversity conservation, such as "biodiversity hotspot", might enable us to discuss the relevance between climate change and biodiversity.In ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) phase 1, we have estimated NPP (net primary production), plant biomass and soil organic carbon by seven global biome models under climate conditions from 1901 to 2100 based on four RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways for 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W m-2 stabilization targets) and five global climate models. In the present study, we analyzed these outputs to reveal the effects of changes on NPP, plant biomass and soil organic carbon in 20 biodiversity hotspots in various climatic regions. Although NPP of whole world tended to increase under RCP 8.5 W m-2 scenario, some biome models have shown that NPP of the hotspots in tropical regions decrease.

Multiobjective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling with a Time-Varying Number of Tasks

PubMed Central

Abello, Manuel Blanco

2014-01-01

In resource-constrained project scheduling (RCPS) problems, ongoing tasks are restricted to utilizing a fixed number of resources. This paper investigates a dynamic version of the RCPS problem where the number of tasks varies in time. Our previous work investigated a technique called mapping of task IDs for centroid-based approach with random immigrants (McBAR) that was used to solve the dynamic problem. However, the solution-searching ability of McBAR was investigated over only a few instances of the dynamic problem. As a consequence, only a small number of characteristics of McBAR, under the dynamics of the RCPS problem, were found. Further, only a few techniques were compared to McBAR with respect to its solution-searching ability for solving the dynamic problem. In this paper, (a) the significance of the subalgorithms of McBAR is investigated by comparing McBAR to several other techniques; and (b) the scope of investigation in the previous work is extended. In particular, McBAR is compared to a technique called, Estimation Distribution Algorithm (EDA). As with McBAR, EDA is applied to solve the dynamic problem, an application that is unique in the literature. PMID:24883398

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

2016-01-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.;

Impacts of Change in Irrigation Water Availability on Food Production in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Y. Y.; Tang, Q.

2014-12-01

Approximately 9 percent of China's population and 17 percent of its agricultural area are settled in the Yellow River Basins. Irrigation, which plays an important role in agricultural production, occupies the largest share of human consumptive water use in the basin. Given increasing water demands, the basin faces acute water scarcity. Previous studies have suggested that decrease in irrigation water availability under climate change might have an overall adverse impact on the food production of the basin. The timing and area that would face severe water stress are yet to be identified. We used a land surface hydrological model forced with the bias-corrected climatic variables from 5 climate models under 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to estimate total water availability in the sub-basins of the Yellow River basin. The future socioeconomic conditions, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were used to estimate the water requirement in the nonagricultural water use sectors. The irrigation water availability was estimated from the total water availability and nonagricultural water use, and the irrigation water demands were estimated based on the current irrigation project efficiencies. The timing and area of irrigation water shortage were shown and the implication of change in irrigation water availability on food production was assessed. The results show that the sub-basins with high population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are likely to confront severe water stress and reduction in food production earlier because irrigation water was to be appropriated by the rapid increase in nonagricultural water use sectors. The study stresses the need for adaptive management of water to balance agriculture and nonagricultural demands in northern China.

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Wiberg, D.

2015-08-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity condition already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions initiative (WFaS) coordinates its work with other on-going scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

The creation of reasonable projections toward sustainable development considering the climate and socioeconomic changes in the Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Iida, A.; Nakatani, J.; Noda, K.; Take, M.; Nakamura, S.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate and socioeconomic change in the future are important factors to consider when discussing the issues of sustainable development in the Pacific Islands, since their impacts here are relatively large compared to those in other regions due to the severe limitation of internal resources and the external dependency of the life essentials. The tourism industry is the key driving force behind the economic growth in island region and it is promoted by the environmental attractions. This study constructs scenarios that foresees the effects of these changes and assesses the subsequent impact on both the local community and the tourism industry. In this study, the scenarios have been developed based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The progress of climate change was expected to affect the attraction of tourists as well as resources availability and food production. The difference of SSPs was expected to affect the quality of life in the local society and the quantity and/or the quality of tourism. A downscale and bias-correction using a local dataset was applied to assess the impacts of climate change, and the relationships between GDP, population, and estimated land availability in the current situation were applied to assess the impact of socioeconomic change. As case studies, the scenarios were constructed to assess the impacts in the Republic of Palau and Ishigaki Island, Japan. Both are typical islands where tourism is the main industry. The situation of environmental resources, local society, and tourism under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions was assessed using these scenarios. The creation of reasonable projections under appropriate scenarios can contribute to sustainable development not only in these islands but also in most Pacific Islands.

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teshager, Awoke D.; Gassman, Philip W.; Schoof, Justin T.; Secchi, Silvia

2016-08-01

Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

2013-06-01

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standardmore » RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.« less

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

2015-08-06

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-08-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Tom H.; Marshall, Harry H.; Morecroft, Mike D.; Brereton, Tom; Prudhomme, Christel; Huntingford, Chris

2015-10-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with `business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks. PMID:26247438

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Zhou, Maigeng; Liang, Xudong; Ban, Jie; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-06-01

An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heat-related mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

Aging Will Amplify the Heat-Related Mortality Risk Under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Zhou, Maigeng; Liang, Xudong; Ban, Jie; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heatrelated mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Jun; Zhang, Jian-Yun; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Xie, Yu-Xuan; Zhang, Xu

2018-02-01

A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C constrains emergence of aridification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Joshi, Manoj; Osborn, Timothy J.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Deliang; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Park, Hoonyoung; Kim, Baek-Min; Feng, Song

2018-01-01

Aridity—the ratio of atmospheric water supply (precipitation; P) to demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET)—is projected to decrease (that is, areas will become drier) as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, exacerbating land degradation and desertification1-6. However, the timing of significant aridification relative to natural variability—defined here as the time of emergence for aridification (ToEA)—is unknown, despite its importance in designing and implementing mitigation policies7-10. Here we estimate ToEA from projections of 27 global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and in doing so, identify where emergence occurs before global mean warming reaches 1.5 °C and 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. On the basis of the ensemble median ToEA for each grid cell, aridification emerges over 32% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) of the total land surface before the ensemble median of global mean temperature change reaches 2 °C in each scenario. Moreover, ToEA is avoided in about two-thirds of the above regions if the maximum global warming level is limited to 1.5 °C. Early action for accomplishing the 1.5 °C temperature goal can therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial aridification and related impacts.

Model dependence and its effect on ensemble projections in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramowitz, G.; Bishop, C.

2013-12-01

Conceptually, the notion of model dependence within climate model ensembles is relatively simple - modelling groups share a literature base, parametrisations, data sets and even model code - the potential for dependence in sampling different climate futures is clear. How though can this conceptual problem inform a practical solution that demonstrably improves the ensemble mean and ensemble variance as an estimate of system uncertainty? While some research has already focused on error correlation or error covariance as a candidate to improve ensemble mean estimates, a complete definition of independence must at least implicitly subscribe to an ensemble interpretation paradigm, such as the 'truth-plus-error', 'indistinguishable', or more recently 'replicate Earth' paradigm. Using a definition of model dependence based on error covariance within the replicate Earth paradigm, this presentation will show that accounting for dependence in surface air temperature gives cooler projections in CMIP5 - by as much as 20% globally in some RCPs - although results differ significantly for each RCP, especially regionally. The fact that the change afforded by accounting for dependence across different RCPs is different is not an inconsistent result. Different numbers of submissions to each RCP by different modelling groups mean that differences in projections from different RCPs are not entirely about RCP forcing conditions - they also reflect different sampling strategies.

Bridging the climate-induced water gap in the twenty-first century: adaptation support based on water supply, demand, adaptation and financing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straatsma, Menno; Droogers, Peter; Brandsma, Jaïrus; Buytaert, Wouter; Karssenberg, Derek; Van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Vitolo, Claudia; Schmitz, Oliver; Meijer, Karen; Van Aalst, Maaike; Bierkens, Marc

2014-05-01

Water scarcity affects large parts of the world. Over the course of the twenty-first century, water demand is likely to increase due to population growth and associated food production, and increased economic activity, while water supply is projected to decrease in many regions due to climate change. Despite recent studies that analyze the effect of climate change on water scarcity, e.g. using climate projections under representative concentration pathways (RCP) of the fifth assessment report of the IPCC (AR5), decision support for closing the water gap between now and 2100 does not exist at a meaningful scale and with a global coverage. In this study, we aimed (i) to assess the joint impact of climatic and socio-economic change on water scarcity, (ii) to integrate impact and potential adaptation in one workflow, (iii) to prioritize adaptation options to counteract water scarcity based on their financial, regional socio-economic and environmental implications, and (iv) to deliver all this information in an integrated user-friendly web-based service. To enable the combination of global coverage with local relevance, we aggregated all results for 1604 water provinces (food producing units) delineated in this study, which is five times smaller than previous food producing units. Water supply was computed using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological and water resources model, parameterized at 5 arcminutes for the whole globe, excluding Antarctica and Greenland. We ran PCR-GLOBWB with a daily forcing derived from five different GCM models from the CMIP5 (GFDL-ESM2M, Hadgem2-ES, IPSL-CMA5-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) that were bias corrected using observation-based WATCH data between 1960-1999. For each of the models all four RCPs (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were run, producing the ensemble of 20 future projections. The blue water supply was aggregated per month and per water province. Industrial, domestic and irrigation water demands were computed for a limited number of realistic combinations of a shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and RCPs. Our Water And Climate Adaptation Model (WatCAM) was used to compute the water gap based on reservoir capacity, water supply, and water demand. WatCam is based on the existing ModSim (Labadie, 2010) water allocation model, and facilitated the evaluation of nine technological and infrastructural adaptation measures to assess the investments needed to bridge the future water gap. Regional environmental and socio-economic effects of these investments, such as environmental flows or downstream effects, were evaluated. A scheme was developed to evaluate the strategies on robustness and flexibility under climate change and scenario uncertainty, and each measure was linked to possibilities for investment and financing mechanisms. The WatCAM is available as a web modeling service from www.water2invest.com, and enables user specified adaptation measures and the creation of an ensemble of water gap forecasts.

Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai

2015-12-01

The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in two ways: the warming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the two impacts together in a unified modeling framework. Here we adapt a region-specific lake evolution model to the pan-Arctic scale and couple it with a lake methane biogeochemical model to quantify the change of this freshwater methane source in the 21st century. Our simulations show that the extent of thaw lakes will increase throughout the 21st century in the northern lowlands of the pan-Arctic where the reworking of epigenetic ice in drained lake basins will continue. The projected methane emissions by 2100 are 28.3 ± 4.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a low warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6) and 32.7 ± 5.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), which are about 2.5 and 2.9 times the simulated present-day emissions. Most of the emitted methane originates from nonpermafrost carbon stock. For permafrost carbon, the methanogenesis will mineralize a cumulative amount of 3.4 ± 0.8 Pg C under RCP 2.6 and 3.9 ± 0.9 Pg C under RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The projected emissions could increase atmospheric methane concentrations by 55.0-69.3 ppb. This study further indicates that the warming of lake sediments dominates the increase of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the future.

Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.

PubMed

Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; O'Connor, Fiona M

2017-12-05

This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O 3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O 3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O 3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH 4 ) abundances lead to increases in background O 3 that offset the O 3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O 3 - termed the O 3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O 3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O 3 distribution, such as daily maximum O 3 . Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O 3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O 3 have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O 3 -related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM 2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O 3 -respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH 4 leads to global and European excess O 3 -respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O 3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.

Population dose-response analysis of daily seizure count following vigabatrin therapy in adult and pediatric patients with refractory complex partial seizures.

PubMed

Nielsen, Jace C; Hutmacher, Matthew M; Wesche, David L; Tolbert, Dwain; Patel, Mahlaqa; Kowalski, Kenneth G

2015-01-01

Vigabatrin is an irreversible inhibitor of γ-aminobutyric acid transaminase (GABA-T) and is used as an adjunctive therapy for adult patients with refractory complex partial seizures (rCPS). The purpose of this investigation was to describe the relationship between vigabatrin dosage and daily seizure rate for adults and children with rCPS and identify relevant covariates that might impact seizure frequency. This population dose-response analysis used seizure-count data from three pediatric and two adult randomized controlled studies of rCPS patients. A negative binomial distribution model adequately described daily seizure data. Mean seizure rate decreased with time after first dose and was described using an asymptotic model. Vigabatrin drug effects were best characterized by a quadratic model using normalized dosage as the exposure metric. Normalized dosage was an estimated parameter that allowed for individualized changes in vigabatrin exposure based on body weight. Baseline seizure rate increased with decreasing age, but age had no impact on vigabatrin drug effects after dosage was normalized for body weight differences. Posterior predictive checks indicated the final model was capable of simulating data consistent with observed daily seizure counts. Total normalized vigabatrin dosages of 1, 3, and 6 g/day were predicted to reduce seizure rates 23.2%, 45.6%, and 48.5%, respectively. © 2014, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

The Estimation of Future Pump Capacity for the Urban Drainage System under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Narae; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Yonsoo; Lee, Jongso; Kim, Hungsoo

2013-04-01

In the recent years, flash flood and local heavy rainfall have been frequently occurred in Korea and this may be due to the climate change. Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) and IPCC AR5 reported new greenhouse gas scenario called RCPs(Representative concentration pathways) which are becoming an interesting subject in the field of water resources. These days, the urban areas in the Korean Peninsula have been suffered from the floods, almost every year, by the localized heavy rainfall and this abnormal rainfall may be due to the climate change. Also, the runoff in the urban area has increased due to the rapid urbanization and so the current design rainfall could not be proper any more for accommodating the abnormal runoff capacity. When we determine the frequency of drainage facilities, the maximum flood discharge from the recorded rainfall intensity is used as the design capacity of the facilities. However, there is a need to examine the future rainfall tendency for the re-establishment of the design criteria of the facilities under the climate change, since the recorded rainfall intensity does not reflect the trend of the abnormal rainfall which can be occurred. This study tries to analyze the variability and trend of future rainfall using RCP scenarios and estimate the future capacity at existing pumping station for the urban drainage system. The future projection periods are set to the next 90 years(2011-2100) and are divided into three cases; Target I : 2011~2040 yrs, Target II : 2041~2070 yrs, and Target III : 2071~2100 yrs. The study area is Incheon-city, Korea which has 9 pumping stations. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario which is the worst scenario of RCPs, the Target I design rainfall is increased by 20%, Target II increased by 33%, and Target III increased by 74% compared with the reference period(1970-2010). When considering the impact of climate change, 3 of 9 pumping stations are expected to have no difficulty in the future rainfall. But, the capacities of 6 pumping stations will not be sufficient for the future rainfall and runoff. Therefore, it is expected to construct more pumping stations allowable 6 times of existing pump capacity especially for Target III(2071-2100). ACKNOWLEDGMENT This research was supported by a grant 'The development of disaster risk assessment technique for flood prevention facilities considering the multi risk factors' [NEMA-NH-2010-33] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, N. R.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Naish, T. R.; Levy, R. H.; Fogwill, C. J.; Gasson, E. G. W.

2015-10-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Heat-Related Mortality Projections for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Disease Under the Changing Climate in Beijing, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4 percent, 47.8 percent, and 69.0 percent in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6 percent, 73.8 percent and 134 percent in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP 8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

Climate Voyager: An Iteratively Built Information and Visualization Tool for At-Risk Climate Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Lascurain, A.; Aldridge, H. D.; Davis, C.

2016-12-01

Climate Voyager provides an innovative way to visualize both large-scale and local climate change projections using a three-map layout and time series plot. This product includes a suite of tools designed to assist with climate risk and opportunity assessments, including changes in average seasonal conditions and the capability to evaluate a variety of different decision-relevant thresholds (e.g. changes in extreme temperature occurrence). Each tool summarizes output from 20 downscaled global climate models and contains a historical average for comparison with the spread of projected future outcomes. The Climate Voyager website is interactive, allowing users to explore both regional and location-specific guidance for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and four future 20-year time periods. By presenting climate model projections and measures of uncertainty of specific parameters beyond just annual temperatures and precipitation, Climate Voyager can help a wide variety of decision makers plan for climate changes that may affect them. We present a case study in which a new module was developed within Climate Voyager for use by Tribes and native communities in the eastern U.S. to help make informed resource decisions. In this first attempt, Ramps (Allium tricoccum), a plant species of great cultural significance, was incorporated through consultation with the tribal organization. We will also discuss the process of engagement employed with end-users and the potential to make the Climate Voyager interface an iterative, co-produced process to enhance the usability of climate model information for adaptation planning.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W

2015-10-15

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata).

PubMed

Lei, Juncheng; Chen, Lian; Li, Hong

2017-08-01

The golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, is one of the world's 100 most notorious invasive alien species. Knowledge about the critical climate variables that limit the global distribution range of the snail, as well as predictions of future species distributions under climate change, is very helpful for management of snail. In this study, the climatically suitable habitats for this kind of snail under current climate conditions were modeled by biomod2 and projected to eight future climate scenarios (2 time periods [2050s, 2080s] × 2 Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP8.5] × 2 atmospheric General Circulation Models [GCMs; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)]). The results suggest that the lowest temperature of coldest month is the critical climate variable to restrict the global distribution range of P. canaliculata. It is predicted that the climatically suitable habitats for P. canaliculata will increase by an average of 3.3% in 2050s and 3.8% in 2080s for the RCP2.6 scenario, while they increase by an average of 8.7% in 2050s and 10.3% in 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, climate change in the future may promote the global invasion of the invasive species. Therefore, it is necessary to take proactive measures to monitor and preclude the invasion of this species.

The Biosphere Under Potential Paris Outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostberg, Sebastian; Boysen, Lena R.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter

2018-01-01

Rapid economic and population growth over the last centuries have started to push the Earth out of its Holocene state into the Anthropocene. In this new era, ecosystems across the globe face mounting dual pressure from human land use change (LUC) and climate change (CC). With the Paris Agreement, the international community has committed to holding global warming below 2°C above preindustrial levels, yet current pledges by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions appear insufficient to achieve that goal. At the same time, the sustainable development goals strive to reduce inequalities between countries and provide sufficient food, feed, and clean energy to a growing world population likely to reach more than 9 billion by 2050. Here, we present a macro-scale analysis of the projected impacts of both CC and LUC on the terrestrial biosphere over the 21st century using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to illustrate possible trajectories following the Paris Agreement. We find that CC may cause major impacts in landscapes covering between 16% and 65% of the global ice-free land surface by the end of the century, depending on the success or failure of achieving the Paris goal. Accounting for LUC impacts in addition, this number increases to 38%-80%. Thus, CC will likely replace LUC as the major driver of ecosystem change unless global warming can be limited to well below 2°C. We also find a substantial risk that impacts of agricultural expansion may offset some of the benefits of ambitious climate protection for ecosystems.

EnviroAtlas - Potential Evapotranspiration 1950 - 2099 for the Conterminous United States

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EnviroAtlas Climate Scenarios were generated from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) ensemble averages (the average of over 30 available climate models) for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the contiguous U.S. at 30 arc-second (approx. 800 m2) spatial resolution. In addition to the three climate variables provided by the NEX-DCP30 dataset (minimum monthly temperature, maximum monthly temperature, and precipitation) a corresponding estimate of potential evapotranspiration (PET) was developed to match the spatial and temporal scales of the input dataset. PET represents the cumulative amount of water returned to the atmosphere due to evaporation from Earth00e2??s surface and plant transpiration under ideal circumstances (i.e., a vegetated surface shading the ground and unlimited water supply). PET was calculated using the Hamon PET equation (Hamon, 1961) and CBM model for daylength (Forsythe et al. 1995) for the 4 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and organized by season (Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall) and annually for the years 2006 00e2?? 2099. Additionally, PET was calculated for the ensemble average of all historic runs and organized similarly for the years 1950 00e2?? 2005. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-u

The impact of past and future climate change on global human mortality due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J.; Anenberg, S.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D. T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Berntsen, T.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2012-12-01

Climate change can adversely affect air quality, through changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions. Future changes in air pollutant emissions will also profoundly influence air quality. These changes in air quality can affect human health, as exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with premature human mortality. Here we will quantify the global mortality impacts of past and future climate change, considering the effects of climate change on air quality isolated from emission changes. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has simulated the past and future surface concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 from each of several GCMs, for emissions from 1850 ("preindustrial") to 2000 ("present-day"), and for the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to 2100. We will use ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations from five or more global models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, for a base year (present-day), pre-industrial conditions, and future scenarios, considering changes in climate and emissions. We will assess the mortality impacts of past climate change by using one simulation ensemble with present emissions and climate and one with present emissions but 1850 climate. We will similarly quantify the potential impacts of future climate change under the four RCP scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs will be regridded to the same resolution to estimate multi-model medians and range in each grid cell. Resulting premature deaths will be calculated using these medians along with epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions, and present-day or future projections of population and baseline mortality rates, considering aging and transitioning disease rates over time. The spatial distributions of current and future global premature mortalities due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution will be presented separately. These results will strengthen our understanding of the impacts of climate change today, and in future years considering different plausible scenarios.

Quantifying trade-offs between future yield levels, food availability and forest and woodland conservation in Benin.

PubMed

Duku, Confidence; Zwart, Sander J; van Bussel, Lenny G J; Hein, Lars

2018-01-01

Meeting the dual objectives of food security and ecosystem protection is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To this end agricultural intensification is considered desirable, yet, there remain uncertainties regarding the impact of climate change on opportunities for agricultural intensification and the adequacy of intensification options given the rapid population growth. We quantify trade-offs between levels of yield gap closure, food availability and forest and woodland conservation under different scenarios. Each scenario is made up of a combination of variants of four parameters i.e. (1) climate change based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); (2) population growth based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs); (3) cropland expansion with varying degrees of deforestation; and (4) different degrees of yield gap closure. We carry out these analyses for three major food crops, i.e. maize, cassava and yam, in Benin. Our analyses show that in most of the scenarios, the required levels of yield gap closures required to maintain the current levels of food availability can be achieved by 2050 by maintaining the average rate of yield increases recorded over the past two and half decades in addition to the current cropping intensity. However, yields will have to increase at a faster rate than has been recorded over the past two and half decades in order to achieve the required levels of yield gap closures by 2100. Our analyses also show that without the stated levels of yield gap closure, the areas under maize, cassava and yam cultivation will have to increase by 95%, 102% and 250% respectively in order to maintain the current levels of per capita food availability. Our study shows that food security outcomes and forest and woodland conservation goals in Benin and likely the larger SSA region are inextricably linked together and require holistic management strategies that considers trade-offs and co-benefits. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

40 CFR 300.170 - Federal agency participation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., RRT, and Area Committee organizational structure, and the NCP, RCPs and ACPs, described in § 300.210... facilities or vessels under their jurisdiction or control in accordance with section 103 of CERCLA. (d) All... control to the NRC. ...

A sweet new role for LCP enzymes in protein glycosylation

DOE PAGES

Amer, Brendan R.; Clubb, Robert T.

2014-11-21

The peptidoglycan that surrounds Gram-positive bacteria is affixed with a range of macromolecules that enable the microbe to effectively interact with its environment. Distinct enzymes decorate the cell wall with proteins and glycopolymers. Sortase enzymes covalently attach proteins to the peptidoglycan, while LytRCpsA-Psr (LCP) proteins are thought to attach teichoic acid polymers and capsular polysaccharides. Ton-That and colleagues have discovered a new glycosylation pathway in the oral bacterium Actinomyces oris in which sortase and LCP enzymes operate on the same protein substrate. The A. oris LCP protein has a novel function, acting on the cell surface to transfer glycan macromoleculesmore » to a protein, which is then attached to the cell wall by a sortase. The reactions are tightly coupled, as elimination of the sortase causes the lethal accumulation of glycosylated protein in the membrane. Furthermore, since sortase enzymes are attractive drug targets, this novel finding may provide a convenient cell-based tool to discover inhibitors of this important enzyme family.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amer, Brendan R.; Clubb, Robert T.

The peptidoglycan that surrounds Gram-positive bacteria is affixed with a range of macromolecules that enable the microbe to effectively interact with its environment. Distinct enzymes decorate the cell wall with proteins and glycopolymers. Sortase enzymes covalently attach proteins to the peptidoglycan, while LytRCpsA-Psr (LCP) proteins are thought to attach teichoic acid polymers and capsular polysaccharides. Ton-That and colleagues have discovered a new glycosylation pathway in the oral bacterium Actinomyces oris in which sortase and LCP enzymes operate on the same protein substrate. The A. oris LCP protein has a novel function, acting on the cell surface to transfer glycan macromoleculesmore » to a protein, which is then attached to the cell wall by a sortase. The reactions are tightly coupled, as elimination of the sortase causes the lethal accumulation of glycosylated protein in the membrane. Furthermore, since sortase enzymes are attractive drug targets, this novel finding may provide a convenient cell-based tool to discover inhibitors of this important enzyme family.« less

Assessing the impact of climate change upon hydrology and agriculture in the Indrawati Basin, Nepal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzoli, Irene; Bocchiola, Daniele; Nana, Ester; Maskey, Shreedhar; Uhlenbrook, Stefan

2014-05-01

Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, especially to temperature and precipitation changes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the climate change impacts upon rain-fed crops production in the Indrawati river basin, Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT model was used to model hydrology and cropping systems in the catchment, and to predict the influence of different climate change scenarios therein. Daily weather data collected from about 13 weather stations during 4 decades were used to constrain the SWAT model, and data from two hydrometric stations used to calibrate/validate it. Then management practices (crop calendar) were applied to specific Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) for the main crops of the region, rice, corn and wheat. Manual calibration of crop production was also carried, against values of crop yield in the area from literature. The calibrated and validated model was further applied to assess the impact of three future climate change scenarios (RCPs) upon the crop productivity in the region. Three climate models (GCMs) were adopted, each with three RCPs (2.5, 4.5, 8.5). Hence, impacts of climate change were assessed considering three time windows, namely a baseline period (1995-2004), the middle of century (2045-2054) and the end of century (2085-2094). For each GCM and RCP future hydrology and yield was compared to baseline scenario. The results displayed slightly modified hydrological cycle, and somewhat small variation in crop production, variable with models and RCPs, and for crop type, the largest being for wheat. Keywords: Climate Change, Nepal, hydrological cycle, crop yield.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Naish, Timothy R.; Levy, Richard H.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Gasson, Edward G. W.

2016-04-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above present values by the end of this century (Collins et al., 2013). If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (Rogelj et al., 2012). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Collins et al., 2013). We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garijo, Carlos; Mediero, Luis

2018-04-01

Climate change projections suggest that extremes, such as floods, will modify their behaviour in the future. Detailed catchment-scale studies are needed to implement the European Union Floods Directive and give recommendations for flood management and design of hydraulic infrastructure. In this study, a methodology to quantify changes in future flood magnitude and seasonality due to climate change at a catchment scale is proposed. Projections of 24 global climate models are used, with 10 being downscaled by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) and 14 from the EURO-CORDEX project, under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the Fifth Assessment Report provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Downscaled climate models provided by the AEMET were corrected in terms of bias. The HBV rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. Simulations were analysed through both annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold (POT) series. The results show a decrease in the magnitude of extreme floods for the climate model projections downscaled by the AEMET. However, results for the climate model projections downscaled by EURO-CORDEX show differing trends, depending on the RCP. A small decrease in the flood magnitude was noticed for the RCP 4.5, while an increase was found for the RCP 8.5. Regarding the monthly seasonality analysis performed by using the POT series, a delay in the flood timing from late-autumn to late-winter is identified supporting the findings of recent studies performed with observed data in recent decades.

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Shrestha, Manoj K; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne

2017-07-15

Mediterranean catchments experience already high seasonal variability alternating between dry and wet periods, and are more vulnerable to future climate and land use changes. Quantification of catchment response under future changes is particularly crucial for better water resources management. This study assessed the combined effects of future climate and land use changes on water yield, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads of the Mediterranean Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia by means of the eco-hydrological model SWAT. Six different global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and a hypothetical land use change were used for future simulations. The climate models suggested a high degree of uncertainty, varying seasonally, in both flow and nutrient loads; however, a decreasing trend was observed. Average monthly TN and TP load decreased up to -55% and -56% respectively and were found to be dependent on flow magnitude. The annual and seasonal water yield and nutrient loads may only slightly be affected by envisaged land uses, but significantly altered by intermediate and high emission scenarios, predominantly during the spring season. The combined scenarios indicated the possibility of declining flow in future but nutrient enrichment in summer months, originating mainly from the land use scenario, that may elevate the risk of algal blooms in downstream drinking water reservoir. Hence, careful planning of future water resources in a Mediterranean catchment requires the assessment of combined effects of multiple climate models and land use scenarios on both water quantity and quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

PubMed

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

2014-03-04

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

2014-01-01

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jie; Sun, Ge; Li, Wenhong; Zhang, Yu; Miao, Guofang; Noormets, Asko; McNulty, Steve G.; King, John S.; Kumar, Mukesh; Wang, Xuan

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, groundwater recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wetland ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrology, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-specific empirical hydrologic models for five forested wetlands with different characteristics by analyzing long-term observed meteorological and hydrological data. These wetlands represent typical cypress ponds/swamps, Carolina bays, pine flatwoods, drained pocosins, and natural bottomland hardwood ecosystems. The validated empirical models are then applied at each wetland to predict future water table changes using climate projections from 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We show that combined future changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration would significantly alter wetland hydrology including groundwater dynamics by the end of the 21st century. Compared to the historical period, all five wetlands are predicted to become drier over time. The mean water table depth is predicted to drop by 4 to 22 cm in response to the decrease in water availability (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) by the year 2100. Among the five examined wetlands, the depressional wetland in hot and humid Florida appears to be most vulnerable to future climate change. This study provides quantitative information on the potential magnitude of wetland hydrological response to future climate change in typical forested wetlands in the southeastern US.

Trade and the Future of China's Black Carbon Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persad, G.; Oppenheimer, M.; Naik, V.

2016-12-01

Emissions of black carbon aerosols in China have increased by over 200% during the last 50 years, with negative implications both for human health and for regional and global climate. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios all assume that China's future black carbon emissions will decrease. However, this decline partially depends on the assumption that the evolution of future pollutant emissions in developing nations will match the observed historical relationship between air quality and income in developed nations. Recent research has demonstrated that a substantial portion of China's current black carbon emissions are driven by the production of goods exported for consumption elsewhere. This constitutes an external demand for black carbon-emitting activity in China that is much smaller in the developed nations on which the historical air quality/income relationship is based. We here show using integrated assessment model output, general circulation modeling, and emissions and economic data that (1) China must achieve a faster technological and regulatory evolution than did developed countries in order achieve the same air quality/income trajectory; (2) China's uniquely large share of export-related black carbon-emitting activities and their potential growth are a plausible explanation for this disparity; and (3) the climate and health implications of these export-related black carbon emissions, if unmitigated, are of interest from a policy perspective. Together these results indicate that the production of goods for export will steepen the mitigation curve for China relative to developed nations, if China is to achieve the future black carbon emissions reductions assumed in the RCPs.

Development of a new IHA method for impact assessment of climate change on flow regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tao; Cui, Tong; Xu, Chong-Yu; Ciais, Philippe; Shi, Pengfei

2017-09-01

The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) based on 33 parameters in five dimensions (flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and change rate) have been widely used in evaluation of hydrologic alteration in river systems. Yet, inter-correlation seriously exists amongst those parameters, therefore constantly underestimates or overestimates actual hydrological changes. Toward the end, a new method (Representative-IHA, RIHA) is developed by removing repetitions based on Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) algorithm. RIHA is testified in evaluating effects of future climate change on hydro-ecology in the Niger River of Africa. Future flows are projected using three watershed hydrological models forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Results show that: (1) RIHA is able to eliminate self-correlations amongst IHA indicators and identify the dominant characteristics of hydrological alteration in the Upper Niger River, (2) March streamflow, September streamflow, December streamflow, 30-day annual maximum, low pluses duration and fall rates tends to increase over the period 2010-2099, while July streamflow and 90-day annual minimum streamflow shows decrease, (3) the Niger River will undergo moderate flow alteration under RCP8.5 in 2050s and 2080s and low alteration other scenarios, (4) future flow alteration may induce increase water temperatures, reduction dissolved oxygen and food resources. Consequently, aquatic biodiversity and fish community of Upper Niger River would become more vulnerable in the future. The new method enables more scientific evaluation for multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration under the context of climate change.

Climate change impacts under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Mou Leong; Ibrahim, Ab Latif; Yusop, Zulkifli; Chua, Vivien P.; Chan, Ngai Weng

2017-06-01

This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin in north-eastern Peninsular Malaysia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Thirty-six downscaled climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the periods of 2015-2044 and 2045-2074 were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model. Differences of these scenarios were calculated by comparing to the 1975-2004 baseline period. Overall, the SWAT model performed well in monthly streamflow simulation, with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.75 and 0.63 for calibration and validation, respectively. Based on the ensemble of five GCMs, the annual rainfall and maximum temperature are projected to increase by 1.2-8.7% and 0.6-2.1 °C, respectively. This corresponds to the increases in the annual streamflow (14.6-27.2%), evapotranspiration (0.3-2.7%), surface runoff (46.8-90.2%) and water yield (14.2-26.5%) components. The study shows an increase of monthly rainfall during the wet season, and decrease during the dry season. Therefore, the monthly streamflow and surface runoff are likely to increase significantly in November, December and January. In addition, slight decreases in the monthly water yield are found between June and October (1.9-8.9%) during the 2015-2044 period. These findings could act as a scientific reference to develop better climate adaptation strategies.

Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Milly, Paul C.D.

2016-01-01

The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) change. Hydrology was simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (Williamson et al. 2015). Climate-change scenarios for four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to derive monthly change factors for temperature (T), precipitation (PPT), and PET according to the energy-based method of Priestley and Taylor (1972). Hydrologic simulations indicate a general increase in annual (especially winter) streamflow (Q) as early as 2030 across the DRB, with a larger increase by 2060. This increase in Q is the result of (1) higher winter PPT, which outweighs an annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase and (2) (for winter) a major shift away from storage of PPT as snow pack. However, when PET change is evaluated instead using the simpler T-based method of Hamon (1963), the increases in Q are small or even negative. In fact, the change of Q depends as much on PET method as on time period or RCP. This large sensitivity and associated uncertainty underscore the importance of exercising caution in the selection of a PET method for use in climate-change analyses.

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

Hypsometric control on glacier mass balance sensitivity in Alaska and northwest Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, D.; Sass, L.; O'Neel, S.; Arendt, A.; Kienholz, C.

2017-03-01

Glacier hypsometry provides a first-order approach for assessing a glacier's response to climate forcings. We couple the Randolph Glacier Inventory to a suite of in situ observations and climate model output to examine potential change for the ˜27,000 glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada through the end of the 21st century. By 2100, based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5-8.5 forcings, summer temperatures are predicted to increase between +2.1 and +4.6°C, while solid precipitation (snow) is predicted to decrease by -6 to -11%, despite a +9 to +21% increase in total precipitation. Snow is predicted to undergo a pronounced decrease in the fall, shifting the start of the accumulation season back by ˜1 month. In response to these forcings, the regional equilibrium line altitude (ELA) may increase by +105 to +225 m by 2100. The mass balance sensitivity to this increase is highly variable, with the most substantive impact for glaciers with either limited elevation ranges (often small (<1 km2) glaciers, which account for 80% of glaciers in the region) or those with top-heavy geometries, like icefields. For more than 20% of glaciers, future ELAs, given RCP 6.0 forcings, will exceed the maximum elevation of the glacier, resulting in their eventual demise, while for others, accumulation area ratios will decrease by >60%. Our results highlight the first-order control of hypsometry on individual glacier response to climate change, and the variability that hypsometry introduces to a regional response to a coherent climate perturbation.

A paradigm shift toward a consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Fant, C.; Chen, H.; Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E. A.; Prinn, R. G.; Haigh, M.

2017-12-01

Estimates of physical and economic impacts of future climate change are subject to substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches of assessing climate impacts by evaluating a damage function or by multi-model comparisons based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we focus here on integrating impacts into a self-consistent coupled human and Earth system modeling framework that includes modules that represent multiple physical impacts. In a sample application we show that this framework is capable of investigating the physical impacts of climate change and socio-economic stressors. The projected climate impacts vary dramatically across the globe in a set of scenarios with global mean warming ranging between 2.4°C and 3.6°C above pre-industrial by 2100. Unabated emissions lead to substantial sea level rise, acidification that impacts the base of the oceanic food chain, air pollution that exceeds health standards by tenfold, water stress that impacts an additional 1 to 2 billion people globally and agricultural productivity that decreases substantially in many parts of the world. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C, which results in much smaller impacts. It is challenging for large internationally coordinated exercises to respond quickly to new policy targets. We propose that a paradigm shift toward a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts is needed to produce information relevant to evolving global climate policy and mitigation strategies in a timely way.

Changes of Climate Extremes in Urmia Lake Basin: Observations and Multimodel Ensemble Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, B.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

This study presents an analysis of the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Urmia Lake Basin, in Iran in 21th century. The latest observations in the past three decades and multimodel ensemble projections from eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are employed for analysis in this study. The twenty-seven indicative temperature and precipitation indices recommended by the joint World Meteorological Organization CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used for assessing changes in extremes. Results indicate that most warm (cold) extreme temperature indices have shown significantly positive (negative) trends in the Urmia Lake Basin in past three decades, while only slight changes in precipitation extremes can be observed. Ensemble projection from Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests that the increasing consecutive dry days (CDD), together with the decreasing frost day (FD) and increasing warm nights frequency (TN90) contribute to more frequent/severe droughts in Urmia Lake Basin. Meanwhile, the results show slight increase of annual count of days with precipitation of more than 10 mm (R10), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5D), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and annual total precipitation with precipitation >95th percentile (R95) in projections. Our finding provides information on how extremes might change in the future from a wide range of scenarios that can potentially be sued for water resource and eco-environmental planning and adaptation strategies.

New insights for the hydrology of the Rhine based on the new generation climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Beersma, Jules; Buiteveld, Hendrik

2014-05-01

Decision makers base their choices of adaptation strategies on climate change projections and their associated hydrological consequences. New insights of climate change gained under the new generation of climate models belonging to the IPCC 5th assessment report may influence (the planning of) adaption measures and/or future expectations. In this study, hydrological impacts of climate change as projected under the new generation of climate models for the Rhine were assessed. Hereto we downscaled 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs), which were developed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), using an advanced Delta Change Method for the Rhine basin. Changes in mean monthly, maximum and minimum flows at Lobith were derived with the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV of the Rhine. The projected changes were compared to changes that were previously obtained in the trans-boundary project Rheinblick using eight CMIP3 GCMs and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for emission scenario A1B. All eight selected CMIP3 models (scenario A1B) predicted for 2071-2100 a decrease in mean monthly flows between June and October. Similar decreases were found for some of the 31 CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. However, under each RCP, there were also models that projected an increase in mean flows between June and October and on average the decrease was smaller than for the eight CMIP3 models. For 2071-2100, also the mean annual minimum 7-days discharge decreased less in the CMIP5 model simulations than was projected in CMIP3. When assessing the response of mean monthly flows of the CMIP5 simulation with the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and HadGEM2-ES models with respect to initial conditions and RCPs, it was found that natural variability plays a dominant role in the near future (2021-2050), while changes in mean monthly flows are dominated by the radiative forcing in the far future (2071-2100). According to RCP 8.5 model simulations, the change in mean monthly flow from May to November may be half the change in mean monthly flow projected by RCP 4.5. From January to March, RCP 8.5 simulations projected higher changes in mean monthly flows than RCP 4.5 simulations. These new insights based on the CMIP5 simulations imply that for the Rhine, the mean and low flow extremes might not decrease as much in summer as was expected under CMIP3. Stresses on water availability during summer are therefore also less than expected from CMIP3.

High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitations over China through PRECIS under RCPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui; Wu, Yinghui

2018-06-01

The impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extreme precipitations over China is investigated by using the Providing REgional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) model. The PRECIS model was driven by the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 with Earth System components and coupling (HadGEM2-ES). The results of both models are analyzed in terms of mean precipitation and indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R99p, SDII, WDF, and CWD) over China at the resolution of 25 km under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios for the baseline period (1976-2005) and two future periods (2036-2065 and 2070-2099). With improved resolution, the PRECIS model is able to better represent the fine-scale physical process than HadGEM2-ES. It can provide reliable spatial patterns of precipitation and its related extremes with high correlations to observations. Moreover, there is a notable improvement in temporal patterns simulation through the PRECIS model. The PRECIS model better reproduces the regional annual cycle and frequencies of daily precipitation intensity than its driving GCM. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both the HadGEM2-ES and the precis project increasing annual precipitation over the entire country for two future periods. Precipitation increase in winter is greater than the increase in summer. The results suggest that increased radiative forcing from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 would further intensify the magnitude of projected precipitation changes by both PRECIS and HadGEM2-ES. For example, some parts of south China with decreased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect even less precipitation under RCP8.5; regions (northwest, northcentral and northeast China) with increased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect more precipitation under RCP8.5. Apart from the projected increase in annual total precipitation, the results also suggest that there will be an increase in the days with precipitation higher than 15 mm and a decrease in the days with precipitation less than 5 mm. Under both RCPs, there would be an increasing trend in the magnitude of changes in precipitation extremes indices (R95p, R99p, and SDII) over China, while an opposite trend is projected for CWD and no apparent trend is projected for WDF from 2036-2065 to 2070-2099. Increased extreme precipitation amounts accompanied with decreased frequencies of extreme precipitation suggest that the future daily extreme precipitation intensity is likely to become large in northeast China and south China.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana

The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the firstmore » set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a detailed sector and region level. A second methodological advancement is a quantification of the co-benefits in terms of the associated atmospheric concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and consequent mortality related outcomes across different models. This is made possible by the use of state-of the art simplified atmospheric model that allows for the first time a computationally feasible multi-model evaluation of such outcomes.« less

Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran).

PubMed

Soleimani, Azam; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Massah Bavani, Ali Reza; Jafari, Mostafa; Francaviglia, Rosa

2017-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) contains a considerable portion of the world's terrestrial carbon stock, and is affected by changes in land cover and climate. SOC modeling is a useful approach to assess the impact of land use, land use change and climate change on carbon (C) sequestration. This study aimed to: (i) test the performance of RothC model using data measured from different land covers in Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran); and (ii) predict changes in SOC under different climate change scenarios that may occur in the future. The following land covers were considered: Quercus castaneifolia (QC), Acer velutinum (AV), Alnus subcordata (AS), Cupressus sempervirens (CS) plantations and a natural forest (NF). For assessment of future climate change projections the Fifth Assessment IPCC report was used. These projections were generated with nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) leading to very low and high greenhouse gases concentration levels (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively), and for four 20year-periods up to 2099 (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Simulated values of SOC correlated well with measured data (R 2 =0.64 to 0.91) indicating a good efficiency of the RothC model. Our results showed an overall decrease in SOC stocks by 2099 under all land covers and climate change scenarios, but the extent of the decrease varied with the climate models, the emissions scenarios, time periods and land covers. Acer velutinum plantation was the most sensitive land cover to future climate change (range of decrease 8.34-21.83tCha -1 ). Results suggest that modeling techniques can be effectively applied for evaluating SOC stocks, allowing the identification of current patterns in the soil and the prediction of future conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Characterizing the Use of Research-Community Partnerships in Studies of Evidence-Based Interventions in Children’s Community Services

PubMed Central

Brookman-Frazee, Lauren; Stahmer, Aubyn; Stadnick, Nicole; Chlebowski, Colby; Herschell, Amy; Garland, Ann

2015-01-01

This study characterized the use of research community partnerships (RCPs) to tailor evidence-based intervention, training, and implementation models for delivery across different childhood problems and service contexts using a survey completed by project principal investigators and community partners. To build on previous RCP research and to explicate the tacit knowledge gained through collaborative efforts, the following were examined: (1) characteristics of studies using RCP models; (2) RCP functioning, processes, and products; (3) processes of tailoring evidence-based practices (EBPs) for community implementation ; and (4) perceptions of the benefits and challenges of collaborating with community providers and consumers. Results indicated that researchers were solely or jointly involved in the formation of almost all of the RCPs; interpersonal and operational processes were perceived as primary challenges; community partners’ roles included greater involvement in implementation and participant recruitment than more traditional research activities; and the partnership process was perceived to increase the relevance and “fit” of interventions and research. PMID:25578512

Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. R.

2013-12-01

In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

40 CFR 300.210 - Federal contingency plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... contingency plans under the national response system: The National Contingency Plan, RCPs, and ACPs. These... discharge under § 300.324, and to mitigate or prevent a substantial threat of such a discharge, from a vessel, offshore facility, or onshore facility operating in or near the area. (2) The areas of...

Effects of Climate Change on Flood Frequency in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Stumbaugh, M. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

A key concern about climate change as related to water resources is the potential for changes in hydrologic extremes, including flooding. We explore changes in flood frequency in the Pacific Northwest using downscaled output from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for historical forcings (1950-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2006-2100). We use archived output from the Integrated Scenarios Project (ISP) (http://maca.northwestknowledge.net/), which uses the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method for statistical downscaling. The MACA-downscaled GCM output was then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a 1/16th degree spatial resolution and a daily time step. For each of the 238 HUC-08 areas within the Pacific Northwest (USGS Hydrologic Region 15), we computed, from the ISP archive, the series of maximum daily runoff values (surrogate for the annual maximum flood), and then the mean annual flood. Finally, we computed the ratios of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean annual floods to their corresponding values for the historical period. We evaluate spatial patterns in the results. For snow-dominated watersheds, the changes are dominated by reductions in flood frequency in basins that currently have spring-dominant floods, and increases in snow affected basins with fall-dominant floods. In low elevation basins west of the Cascades, changes in flooding are more directly related to changes in precipitation extremes. We further explore the nature of these effects by evaluating the mean Julian day of the annual maximum flood for each HUC-08 and how this changes between the historical and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperature in Regulated River Systems: A Case Study in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Zhang, X.; Yearsley, J. R.; Voisin, N.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and associated changes in air temperature and precipitation are projected to impact natural water resources quantity, quality and timing. In the past century, over 280 major dams were built in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) (GRanD database). Regulation of the river system greatly alters natural streamflow as well as stream temperature. Understanding the impacts of climate change on regulated systems, particularly within the context of the Clean Water Act, can inform stakeholders how to maintain and adapt water operations (e.g. regulation, withdrawals). In this study, we use a new modeling framework to study climate change impacts on stream temperatures of a regulated river system. We simulate runoff with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model, regulated streamflow and reservoir operations with a large-scale river routing-reservoir model (MOSART-WM), and stream temperature using the River Basin Model (RBM). We enhanced RBM with a two-layer thermal stratification reservoir module. This modeling framework captures both the impact of reservoir regulation on streamflow and the reservoir stratification effects on downstream temperatures. We evaluate changes in flow and stream temperatures based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We simulate river temperature with meteorological forcings that have been downscaled with the Multivariate Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. We are specifically interested in analyzing extreme periods during which stream temperature exceeds water quality standards. In this study, we focus on identifying whether these extreme temperature periods coincide with low flows, and whether the frequency and duration of these operationally-relevant periods will increase under future climate change.

Invasive termites in a changing climate: A global perspective.

PubMed

Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Bertelsmeier, Cleo

2017-02-01

Termites are ubiquitous insects in tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate regions and play an important role in ecosystems. Several termite species are also significant economic pests, mainly in urban areas where they attack human-made structures, but also in natural forest habitats. Worldwide, approximately 28 termite species are considered invasive and have spread beyond their native ranges, often with significant economic consequences. We used predictive climate modeling to provide the first global risk assessment for 13 of the world's most invasive termites. We modeled the future distribution of 13 of the most serious invasive termite species, using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and two projection years (2050 and 2070). Our results show that all but one termite species are expected to significantly increase in their global distribution, irrespective of the climatic scenario and year. The range shifts by species (shift vectors) revealed a complex pattern of distributional changes across latitudes rather than simple poleward expansion. Mapping of potential invasion hotspots in 2050 under the RCP 4.5 scenario revealed that the most suitable areas are located in the tropics. Substantial parts of all continents had suitable environmental conditions for more than four species simultaneously. Mapping of changes in the number of species revealed that areas that lose many species (e.g., parts of South America) are those that were previously very species-rich, contrary to regions such as Europe that were overall not among the most important invasion hotspots, but that showed a great increase in the number of potential invaders. The substantial economic and ecological damage caused by invasive termites is likely to increase in response to climate change, increased urbanization, and accelerating economic globalization, acting singly or interactively.

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus

PubMed Central

Peterson, A. Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M.

2017-01-01

Background Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. Method We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. Result The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions. PMID:29206879

21st century drought outlook for major climate divisions of Texas based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Implications for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkataraman, Kartik; Tummuri, Spandana; Medina, Aldo; Perry, Jordan

2016-03-01

Management of water resources in Texas (United States) is a challenging endeavor due to rapid population growth in the recent past coupled with significant spatiotemporal variations in climate. While climate conditions impact the availability of water, over-usage and lack of efficient management further complicate the dynamics of supply availability. In this paper, we provide the first look at the impact of climate change projections from an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) on 21st century drought characteristics under three future emission trajectories: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In addition, we evaluate the performance of the ensemble in simulating historical (1950-1999) observations from multiple climate divisions in Texas. Overall, the ensemble performs better in simulating historical temperature than precipitation. In semi-arid locations such as El Paso and Laredo, decreasing precipitation trends are projected even under the influence of climate policies represented by the RCP 4.5. There is little variability in the SPI across climate divisions and across RCPs. The SPEI, on the other hand, generally shows a decreasing trend toward the latter half of the 21st century, with multi-year droughts becoming the norm under the RCP 8.5, particularly in regions that are already dry, such as El Paso. Less severe droughts are projected for the sub-humid eastern edge of the state. Considering that state water planning agencies are already forecasting increased water shortages over the next 50 years, we recommend proactive approaches to risk management such as adjusting the planning tools for potential recurrence of multi-year droughts in regions that are already water-stressed.

Estimates of future warming-induced methane emissions from hydrate offshore west Svalbard for a range of climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marín-Moreno, Héctor; Minshull, Timothy A.; Westbrook, Graham K.; Sinha, Bablu

2015-05-01

Methane hydrate close to the hydrate stability limit in seafloor sediment could represent an important source of methane to the oceans and atmosphere as the oceans warm. We investigate the extent to which patterns of past and future ocean-temperature fluctuations influence hydrate stability in a region offshore West Svalbard where active gas venting has been observed. We model the transient behavior of the gas hydrate stability zone at 400-500 m water depth (mwd) in response to past temperature changes inferred from historical measurements and proxy data and we model future changes predicted by seven climate models and two climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We show that over the past 2000 year, a combination of annual and decadal temperature fluctuations could have triggered multiple hydrate-sourced methane emissions from seabed shallower than 400 mwd during episodes when the multidecadal average temperature was similar to that over the last century (˜2.6°C). These temperature fluctuations can explain current methane emissions at 400 mwd, but decades to centuries of ocean warming are required to generate emissions in water deeper than 420 m. In the venting area, future methane emissions are relatively insensitive to the choice of climate model and RCP scenario until 2050 year, but are more sensitive to the RCP scenario after 2050 year. By 2100 CE, we estimate an ocean uptake of 97-1050 TgC from marine Arctic hydrate-sourced methane emissions, which is 0.06-0.67% of the ocean uptake from anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the period 1750-2011.

Quantifying the influence of CO2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasse, T. P.; McNeil, B. I.; Matear, R. J.; Lenton, A.

2015-10-01

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem - from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 ± 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

Aquatic Ecosystem Services in the 21st Century Northeast Corridor: Assessment Using a Regional Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; Miara, A.; Stewart, R. J.; Wollheim, W. M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2012-12-01

Aquatic ecosystems of the Northeast United States will be significantly impacted by both global climate change and the regional-scale strategic management decisions made in the next few years. We have developed a Regional Earth System Model for the Northeast Corridor (NE-RESM) that simulates the impacts of climate, land use, and development policy on the interacting cycles of energy, water, carbon and nutrients. The NE-RESM will provide a unique and critically needed tool for policymakers to understand how their current decisions will impact ecosystem services over the 21st Century. To test our modeling framework, we conducted a retrospective experiment focusing on the water-energy-economy nexus during the period 2000-2010. Component models were developed to 'translate' physical outputs from the NE-RESM - such as stream discharge and water temperature - into ecosystem services including water regulation for thermoelectric cooling and the ability for streams to serve as a refugia for wildlife. Simulations were performed both with and without Clean Water Act limits on thermal pollution. Through this work, we were able to obtain spatially distributed information on how these laws impact power generation by the thermoelectric sector but also enable Northeast streams to serve as habitat for temperature-sensitive aquatic species (Brook Trout, Atlantic Salmon, River Herring and the American Eel). Our ongoing research examines future climate and policy scenarios through 2100. We are considering the impact of changing land cover patterns (a return to agriculture vs. suburban sprawl) and various strategies to meet energy and municipal water needs under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5).

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

2017-10-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Modeling the impact of climate change on watershed discharge and sediment yield in the black soil region, northeastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiying; Fang, Haiyan

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to impact discharge and sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water discharge and sediment yield for the Yi'an watershed of the black soil region, northeastern China, based on the newly released Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) during 2071-2099. For this purpose, the TETIS model was implemented to simulate the hydrological and sedimentological responses to climate change. The model calibration (1971-1977) and validation (1978-1987) performances were rated as satisfactory. The modeling results for the four RCP scenarios relative to the control scenario under the same land use configuration indicated an increase in discharge of 16.3% (RCP 2.6), 14.3% (RCP 4.5), 36.7% (RCP 6.0) and 71.4% (RCP 8.5) and an increase in the sediment yield of 16.5% (RCP 2.6), 32.4% (RCP 4.5), 81.8% (RCP 6.0) and 170% (RCP 8.5). This implies that the negative impact of climate change on sediment yield is generally greater than that on discharge. At the monthly scale, both discharge and sediment yield increased dramatically in April to June and August to September. A more vigorous hydrological cycle and an increase in high values of sediment yield are also expected. These changes in annual discharge and sediment yield were closely linked with changes in precipitation, whereas monthly changes in late spring and autumn were mainly related to temperature. This study highlights the possible adverse impact of climate change on discharge and sediment yield in the black soil region of northeastern China and could provide scientific basis for adaptive management.

Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins.

PubMed

Gampe, David; Nikulin, Grigory; Ludwig, Ralf

2016-12-15

Climate change will likely increase pressure on the water balances of Mediterranean basins due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at ~12km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected and climate change signals for the future period 2035-2065 as compared to the reference period 1981-2010 are investigated. Decreased runoff and evaporation indicate increased water scarcity over the Ebro and the Evrotas, as well as the southern parts of the Adige and the Sava, resulting from a temperature increase of 1-3° and precipitation decrease of up to 30%. Most severe changes are projected for the summer months indicating further pressure on the river basins already at least partly characterized by flow intermittency. The widely used Falkenmark indicator is presented and confirms this tendency and shows the necessity for spatially distributed analysis and high resolution projections. Related uncertainties are addressed by the means of a variance decomposition and model agreement to determine the robustness of the projections. The study highlights the importance of high resolution climate projections and represents a feasible approach to assess climate impacts on water scarcity also in regions that suffer from data scarcity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ensembles modeling approach to study Climate Change impacts on Wheat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Mukhtar; Claudio, Stöckle O.; Nelson, Roger; Higgins, Stewart

2017-04-01

Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and yield. Firstly, all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated sites in the PNW using 1979-2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent under rainfed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050 and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Climate change and its impacts on vegetation distribution and net primary productivity of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Gao, Qingzhu; Guo, Yaqi; Xu, Hongmei; Ganjurjav, Hasbagen; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Liu, Shuo

2016-06-01

Changes in climate have caused impacts on ecosystems on all continents scale, and climate change is also projected to be a stressor on most ecosystems even at the rate of low- to medium-range warming scenarios. Alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change. To quantify the climate change impacts on alpine ecosystems, we simulated the vegetation distribution and net primary production in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau for three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using climate projection for RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ model) was parameter and test to make it applicable to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Climate projections that were applied to LPJ model in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions. Results based on climate projections indicated changes from 1.3°C to 4.2°C in annual temperature and changes from 2% to 5% in annual precipitation. The main impacts on vegetation distribution was increase in the area of forests and shrubs, decrease in alpine meadows which mainly replaced by shrubs which dominated the eastern plateau, and expanding in alpine steppes to the northwest dominated the western and northern plateau. The NPP was projected to increase by 79% and 134% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected NPP generally increased about 200gC·m(-2)·yr(-1) in most parts of the plateau with a gradual increase from the eastern to the western region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau at the end of this century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Black carbon reduction will weaken the aerosol net cooling effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z. L.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, X. Y.

2014-12-01

Black carbon (BC), a distinct type of carbonaceous material formed from the incomplete combustion of fossil and biomass based fuels under certain conditions, can interact with solar radiation and clouds through its strong light-absorption ability, thereby warming the Earth's climate system. Some studies have even suggested that global warming could be slowed down in a short term by eliminating BC emission due to its short lifetime. In this study, we estimate the influence of removing some sources of BC and other co-emitted species on the aerosol radiative effect by using an aerosol-climate coupled model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero, in combination with the aerosol emissions from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. We find that the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) will be enhanced by 0.12 W m-2 compared with present-day conditions if the BC emission is reduced exclusively to the level projected for 2100 based on the RCP2.6 scenario. This will be beneficial for the mitigation of global warming. However, the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the TOA will be weakened by 1.7-2.0 W m-2 relative to present-day conditions if emissions of BC and co-emitted sulfur dioxide and organic carbon are simultaneously reduced as the most close conditions to the actual situation to the level projected for 2100 in different ways based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Because there are no effective ways to remove the BC exclusively without influencing the other co-emitted components, our results therefore indicate that a reduction in BC emission can lead to an unexpected warming on the Earth's climate system in the future.

Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

2017-04-01

The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for central Belgium with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations, and associated uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

2018-02-01

An ensemble of 88 regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° spatial resolutions from the EURO-CORDEX project is analyzed for central Belgium to investigate the projected impact of climate change on precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and extreme precipitation quantiles typically used in water engineering designs. The rate of uncertainty arising from the choice of RCM, driving GCM, and radiative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) is quantified using a variance decomposition technique after reconstruction of missing data in GCM × RCM combinations. A comparative analysis between the historical simulations of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° RCMs shows higher precipitation intensities by the finer resolution runs, leading to a larger overestimation of the observations-based IDFs by the 0.11° runs. The results reveal that making a temporal stationarity assumption for the climate system may lead to underestimation of precipitation quantiles up to 70% by the end of this century. This projected increase is generally larger for the 0.11° RCMs compared with the 0.44° RCMs. The relative changes in extreme precipitation do depend on return period and duration, indicating an amplification for larger return periods and for smaller durations. The variance decomposition approach generally identifies RCM as the most dominant component of uncertainty in changes of more extreme precipitation (return period of 10 years) for both 0.11° and 0.44° resolutions, followed by GCM and RCP scenario. The uncertainties associated with cross-contributions of RCMs, GCMs, and RCPs play a non-negligible role in the associated uncertainties of the changes.

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang

Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributablemore » to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.« less

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

pyhector: A Python interface for the simple climate model Hector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

N Willner, Sven; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

2017-04-01

Pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production andmore » respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system (Hartin et al. 2016). The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2. These were developed to cover the range of baseline and mitigation emissions scenarios and are widely used in climate change research and model intercomparison projects. Using DataFrames from the Python library Pandas (McKinney 2010) as a data structure for the scenarios simplifies generating and adapting scenarios. Other parameters of the Hector model can easily be modified when running the model. Pyhector can be installed using pip from the Python Package Index.3 Source code and issue tracker are available in Pyhector's GitHub repository4. Documentation is provided through Readthedocs5. Usage examples are also contained in the repository as a Jupyter Notebook (Pérez and Granger 2007; Kluyver et al. 2016). Courtesy of the Mybinder project6, the example Notebook can also be executed and modified without installing Pyhector locally.« less

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed

Alkishe, Abdelghafar A; Peterson, A Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M

2017-01-01

Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.

Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.

2017-12-01

Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.

2015-12-01

Assessing climate change impacts often requires the use of multiple scenarios, types of models, and data sources, leading to a large number of potential sources of uncertainty. For example, a single study might require a choice of a forcing scenario, climate model, bias correction and/or downscaling method, societal development scenario, model (typically several) for quantifying elements of societal development such as economic and population growth, biophysical model (such as for crop yields or hydrology), and societal impact model (e.g. economic or health model). Some sources of uncertainty are reduced or eliminated by the framing of the question. For example, it may be useful to ask what an impact outcome would be conditional on a given societal development pathway, forcing scenario, or policy. However many sources of uncertainty remain, and it is rare for all or even most of these sources to be accounted for. I use the example of a recent integrated project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) to explore useful approaches to uncertainty across multiple components of an impact assessment. BRACE comprises 23 papers that assess the differences in impacts between two alternative climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. It quantifies difference in impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it includes climate modeling, statistical analysis, integrated assessment modeling, and sector-specific impact modeling. It employs alternative scenarios of both radiative forcing and societal development, but generally uses a single climate model (CESM), partially accounting for climate uncertainty by drawing heavily on large initial condition ensembles. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach to uncertainty in BRACE are assessed. Options under consideration for improving the approach include the use of perturbed physics ensembles of CESM, employing results from multiple climate models, and combining the results from single impact models with statistical representations of uncertainty across multiple models. A key consideration is the relationship between the question being addressed and the uncertainty approach.

Importance of Anthropogenic Aerosols for Climate Prediction: a Study on East Asian Sulfate Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Climate prediction is vital to ensure that we are able to adapt to our changing climate. Understandably, the main focus for such prediction is greenhouse gas forcing, as this will be the main anthropogenic driver of long-term global climate change; however, other forcings could still be important. Atmospheric aerosols represent one such forcing, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia; yet, uncertainty in their future emissions are under-sampled by commonly used climate forcing projections, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Globally, anthropogenic aerosols exert a net cooling, but their effects show large variation at regional scales. Studies have shown that aerosols impact locally upon temperature, precipitation and hydroclimate, and also upon larger scale atmospheric circulation (for example, the Asian monsoon) with implications for climate remote from aerosol sources. We investigate how future climate could evolve differently given the same greenhouse gas forcing pathway but differing aerosol emissions. Specifically, we use climate modelling experiments (using HadGEM2-ES) of two scenarios based upon RCP2.6 greenhouse gas forcing but with large differences in sulfur dioxide emissions over East Asia. Results show that increased sulfate aerosols (associated with increased sulfur dioxide) lead to large regional cooling through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Focussing on dynamical mechanisms, we explore the consequences of this cooling for the Asian summer and winter monsoons. In addition to local temperature and precipitation changes, we find significant changes to large scale atmospheric circulation. Wave-like responses to upper-level atmospheric changes propagate across the northern hemisphere with far-reaching effects on surface climate, for example, cooling over Europe. Within the tropics, we find alterations to zonal circulation (notably, shifts in the Pacific Walker cell) and monsoon systems outside of Asia. These results indicate that anthropogenic aerosols have significant climate impacts against a background of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, and thus represent a key source of uncertainty in near-term climate projection that should be seriously considered in future climate assessments.

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilhan, Asli; Ünal, Yurdanur S.

2017-04-01

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios A. ILHAN ve Y. S. UNAL Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorology In the study, 50 km resolution downscaled results of two different Earth System Models (ESM) HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM with regional climate model of RegCM are used to estimate present and future climate conditions over Mediterranean Basin. The purpose of this study is to compare the projections of two ESMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) over the region of interest seasonally and annually with 50 km resolution. Temperature and precipitation parameters for reference period (1971-2000) and future (2015-2100) are analyzed. The average temperature and total precipitation distributions of each downscaled ESM simulations were compared with observation data (Climate Research Unit-CRU data) to explore the capability of each model for the representation of the current climate. According to reference period values of CRU, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM, it is seen that both models are warmer and wetter than observations and have positive temperature biases only around Caspian Sea and positive precipitation biases over Eastern and Central Europe. The future projections (from 2015 to 2100) of HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are compared with reference period (from 1971 to 2000) and analyzed for temperature and precipitation parameters. The downscaled HadGEM2-ES forced by RCP8.5 scenario produces higher temperatures than the MPI-ESM-MR. The reasons of this warming can be sensitivity of HadGEM2-ES to greenhouse gases and high radiative forcing (+8.5 W/m2). On the other hand, MPI-ESM produce more precipitation than HadGEM2-ES. In order to analyze regional responses of the climate model chains, five main regions are selected which are Turkey, Central Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North Africa. The average biases of the HadGEM2-ES+RegCM and MPI-ESM-MR+RegCM model chains are also calculated for temperature and precipitation variables, and future expectations in each region are discussed under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. According to the regional analysis, North Africa is the warmest region for HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR, and Central Europe warms up similar to North Africa in MPI-ESM-MR coupled simulations under both RCPs. In addition, Eastern Europe is expected to be the wettest region in both models and in both emission scenarios. On the other hand, the driest conditions are expected over Western Europe for MPI-ESM-MR and over Turkey for HadGEM2-ES under RCPs.

Factors affecting proppant flowback with resin coated proppants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Almond, S.W.; Penny, G.S.; Conway, M.W.

1995-12-31

Resin coated proppants (RCPs) have been used to prevent proppant flowback for several years in the hydraulic fracturing of oil and gas wells. Proppant flowback problems, however, still exist with the commercially available RCPs and several operators report failures around the world under a variety of well conditions. To date, a clear explanation of the RCP failure mechanisms and the conditions under which failure occurs has not been presented in the industry. A correlation between the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of RCP materials and the proppant flowback potential has been previously presented by Vreeburg, et al. This paper will presentmore » the results of a study on a variety of factors which effect the proppant flowback of a number of commercially available RCP materials. These factors include (1) the effect of fluid pH (7 to 12) and fluid type (KCL, seawater and a HPG/Borate fracturing fluid), (2) the effect of fluid/proppant slurry shear, (3) the effect of closure pressure during RCP curing, (4) the effect of stress cycling and (5) the effect of downhole flow conditions on proppant flowback.« less

Characterizing the Use of Research-Community Partnerships in Studies of Evidence-Based Interventions in Children's Community Services

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frazee-Brookman, Lauren; Stahmer, Aubyn; Stadnick, Nicole; Chlebowski, Colby; Herschel, Amy; Garland, Ann F.

2015-01-01

This study characterized the use of research community partnerships (RCPs) to tailor evidence-based intervention, training, and implementation models for delivery across different childhood problems and service contexts using a survey completed by project principal investigators and community partners. To build on previous RCP research and to…

Implications of RCP emissions on future PM2.5 air quality and direct radiative forcing over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Zhu, Jia; Moch, Jonathan M.

2016-11-01

Severe PM2.5 air pollution in China and the First Grand National Standard (FGNS), implemented in 2016 (annual PM2.5 concentration target of less than 35 µg m-3), necessitate urgent reduction strategies. This study applied the nested-grid version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to quantify 2000-2050 changes in PM2.5 air quality and related direct radiative forcing (DRF) in China, based on future emission changes under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In the near term (2000-2030), a projected maximum increase in PM2.5 concentrations of 10-15 µg m-3 is found over east China under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 and less than 5 µg m-3 under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. In the long term (2000-2050), PM2.5 pollution clearly improves, and the largest decrease in PM2.5 concentrations of 15-30 µg m-3 is over east China under all RCPs except RCP6.0. Focusing particularly on highly polluted regions, we find that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) wintertime PM2.5 concentrations meeting the FGNS occur after 2040 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, and summertime PM2.5 concentrations reach this goal by 2030 under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. In Sichuan Basin (SCB), wintertime PM2.5 concentrations below the FGNS occur only in 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, although future summertime PM2.5 will be well controlled. The difficulty in controlling future PM2.5 concentrations relates to unmitigated high levels of nitrate, although NOx and SO2 emissions show substantial reductions during 2020-2040. The changes in aerosol concentrations lead to positive aerosol DRF over east China (20°-45°N, 100°-125°E) by 1.22, 1.88, and 0.66 W m-2 in 2050 relative to 2000 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. When considering both health and climate effects of PM2.5 over China, for example, PM2.5 concentrations averaged over east China under RCP4.5 (RCP2.6) decrease by 54% (43%) in 2050 relative to 2000, but at the cost of warming with DRF of 1.88 (1.22) W m-2. Our results indicate that it will be possible to mitigate future PM2.5 pollution in China, but it will likely take two decades for polluted regions such as BTH and SCB to meet the FGNS, based on all RCP scenarios. At the same time, the consequent warming effects from reduced aerosols are also significant and inevitable.

Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

PubMed

Lake, Iain R; Jones, Natalia R; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare M; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail A; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle M

2017-03-01

Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia ) in Europe. A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Potential impacts of climate change on carbon dynamics in a rain-fed agro-ecosystem on the Loess Plateau of China.

PubMed

Qiu, Linjing; Hao, Mingde; Wu, Yiping

2017-01-15

Although many studies have been conducted on crop yield in rain-fed agriculture, the possible impacts of climate change on the carbon (C) dynamics of rain-fed rotation systems, particularly their direction and magnitude at the long-term scale, are still poorly understood. In this study, the sensitivity of C dynamics of a typical rotation system to elevated CO 2 and changed temperature and precipitation were first tested using the CENTURY model, based on data collected from a 30-year field experiment of a corn-wheat-wheat-millet (CWWM) rotation system in the tableland of the Loess Plateau. The possible responses of crop biomass C and soil organic C (SOC) accumulation were then evaluated under scenarios representing the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicated that elevated CO 2 and increased precipitation exerted positive effect on biomass C in CWWM rotation system, while increasing the temperature by 1°C, 2°C and 4°C had negative effects on biomass C due to opposite responses of corn and winter wheat to warming. SOC accumulation was enhanced by increased CO 2 concentration and precipitation but impaired by increased temperature. Under future RCP scenarios with dynamic CO 2 , the biomass C of corn exhibited decrease during the period of 2046-2075 under RCP4.5 and the period of 2016-2075 under RCP8.5 due to reduced precipitation and a warmer climate. In contrast, winter wheat would benefit from increased CO 2 and temperature and was projected to have larger biomass C under both RCP scenarios. Although the climate condition had large differences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the projected SOC had similar trends under two scenarios due to CO 2 fertilizer effect and precipitation fluctuation. These results implied that crop biomass C and SOC accumulation in a warmer environment are strongly related to precipitation, and increase in field water storage should be emphasized in coping with future climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental study of 2-layer regenerators using Mn-Fe-Si-P materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christiaanse, T. V.; Trevizoli, P. V.; Misra, Sumohan; Carroll, Colman; van Asten, David; Zhang, Lian; Teyber, R.; Govindappa, P.; Niknia, I.; Rowe, A.

2018-03-01

This work describes an experimental study of a two layer active magnetic regenerator with varying transition temperature spacing. The transition temperature of the materials is based on the specific heat peak of the materials. A transition temperature based on the average of the heating and cooling curves at zero Tesla field value is used to refer to the materials throughout this paper. This study uses five Mn-Fe-Si-P materials with transition temperatures of 294.6 K, 292.3 K, 290.7 K, 282.5 K and 281.4 K. Six different regenerators are tested. A reference configuration is tested using the 294.6 K material a hot side layer and with a second passive layer of lead spheres as cold side layer. Followed by four configurations that use the same 294.6 K material as hot side layer, but where each configuration uses a different cold side material. For the second active layer the materials are used in sequence; 292.3 K, 290.7 K, 282.5 K and 281.4K. Lastly, a sixth configuration uses the 292.3 K and 282.5 K materials. For each configuration, the temperature span is measured for rejection temperatures from 40 °C to 9 °C and at 0 W and 2 W applied load. Experimental results for temperature span and exergetic cooling power are compared based on the differences from the reference configuration. Materials are analysed based on material performance metrics such as peak adiabatic temperature change, peak entropy change and RCP(s) values. For the cases considered, a closer transition temperature spacing generally gives a greater temperature span and exergetic cooling power than further spaced materials, even when the combined materials have comparatively lower performance metrics. When two materials with higher RCP(s) values with large transition temperature spacing are compared to materials with lower RCP(s) values but, closer transition temperature spacing a higher exergetic cooling power and temperature span is found for the latter.

Climate change forecasting in a mountainous data scarce watershed using CMIP5 models under representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghakhani Afshar, A.; Hasanzadeh, Y.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Pourreza-Bilondi, M.

2017-07-01

Hydrology cycle of river basins and available water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes. In recent years, the increment of temperature due to excessive increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to an abnormality in the climate system of the earth. The main objective of this study is to survey the future climate changes in one of the biggest mountainous watersheds in northeast of Iran (i.e., Kashafrood). In this research, by considering the precipitation and temperature as two important climatic parameters in watersheds, 14 models evolved in the general circulation models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to forecast the future climate changes in the study area. For the historical period of 1992-2005, four evaluation criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), percent of bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination ( R 2) and the ratio of the root-mean-square-error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) were used to compare the simulated observed data for assessing goodness-of-fit of the models. In the primary results, four climate models namely GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, and NorESM1-M were selected among the abovementioned 14 models due to their more prediction accuracies to the investigated evaluation criteria. Thereafter, climate changes of the future periods (near-century, 2006-2037; mid-century, 2037-2070; and late-century, 2070-2100) were investigated and compared by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In order to assess the trend of annual and seasonal changes of climatic components, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test (MK) was also employed. The results of Mann-Kendall test revealed that the precipitation has significant variable trends of both positive and negative alterations. Furthermore, the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature values had significant positive trends at 90, 99, and 99.9 % confidence level. On the other hand, in all parts of the Kashafrood Watershed (KW), the average temperature of watershed will be increased up to 0.56-3.3 °C and the mean precipitation will be decreased up to 10.7 % by the end of the twenty-first century comparing to the historical baselines. Also, in seasonal scale, the maximum and minimum precipitations will occur in spring and summer, respectively, and the mean temperature is higher than the historical baseline in all seasons. The maximum and minimum values of the mean temperature will occur in summer and winter, respectively, and the amount of seasonal precipitation in these seasons will be reduced.

Forecasting Distributional Responses of Limber Pine to Climate Change at Management-Relevant Scales in Rocky Mountain National Park

PubMed Central

Monahan, William B.; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

2013-01-01

Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management. PMID:24391742

Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

PubMed

Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

2016-02-01

Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures. Those reservoirs at risk to future change should be identified, and mitigating measures investigated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land-Climate Feedbacks in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asharaf, Shakeel; Ahrens, Bodo

2016-04-01

In an attempt to identify how land surface states such as soil moisture influence the monsoonal precipitation climate over India, a series of numerical simulations including soil moisture sensitivity experiments was performed. The simulations were conducted with a nonhydrostatic regional climate model (RCM), the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) in climate mode (CCLM) model, which was driven by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. Results showed that pre-monsoonal soil moisture has a significant impact on monsoonal precipitation formation and large-scale atmospheric circulations. The analysis revealed that even a small change in the processes that influence precipitation via changes in local evapotranspiration was able to trigger significant variations in regional soil moisture-precipitation feedback. It was observed that these processes varied spatially from humid to arid regions in India, which further motivated an examination of soil-moisture memory variation over these regions and determination of the ISM seasonal forecasting potential. A quantitative analysis indicated that the simulated soil-moisture memory lengths increased with soil depth and were longer in the western region than those in the eastern region of India. Additionally, the subsequent precipitation variance explained by soil moisture increased from east to west. The ISM rainfall was further analyzed in two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES: B1) and the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: RCP4.5). To that end, the CCLM and its driving global-coupled atmospheric-oceanic model (GCM), ECHAM/MPIOM were used in order to understand the driving processes of the projected inter-annual precipitation variability and associated trends. Results inferred that the projected rainfall changes were the result of two largely compensating processes: increase of remotely induced precipitation and decrease of precipitation efficiency. However, the complementing precipitation components and their simulation uncertainties rendered climate projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall as an ongoing, highly ambiguous challenge for both the GCM and the RCM.

Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century

PubMed Central

Mi, Chunrong; Falk, Huettmann

2016-01-01

The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500–2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest) with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not). We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs)), and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil and mine exploitation. All of these are negatively and intensely linked with global change. PMID:26855870

Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yongwen; Wang, Tao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong

2016-03-01

Terrestrial carbon fluxes are sensitive to climate change, but the interannual climate sensitivity of the land carbon cycle can also change with time. We analyzed the changes in responses of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual climate variations over the 21st century in the Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, interannual temperature sensitivities of NBP (γTempNBP), NPP (γTempNPP), and Rh (γTempRh) remain relatively stable at global scale, yet with large differences among ESMs and spatial heterogeneity. Modeled γTempNPP and γTempRh appear to increase in parallel in boreal regions, resulting in unchanged γTempNBP. Tropical γTempNBP decreases in most models, due to decreasing γTempNPP and relatively stable γTempRh. Across models, the changes in γTempNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γTempNPP rather than changes in γTempRh, at both global and regional scales. Interannual precipitation sensitivities of global NBP (γPrecNBP), NPP (γPrecNPP), and Rh (γPrecRh) are predicted not to change significantly, with large differences among ESMs. Across models, the changes in γPrecNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γPrecNPP rather than changes in γPrecRh in temperate regions, but not in other regions. Changes in the interannual climate sensitivities of carbon fluxes are consistent across RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 but larger in more intensive scenarios. More effort should be considered to improve terrestrial carbon flux responses to interannual climate variability, e.g., incorporating biogeochemical processes of nutrient limitation, permafrost dynamics, and microbial decomposition.

Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the US Southwest: Implications for air quality and public health under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achakulwisut, P.; Mickley, L. J.; Anenberg, S. C.

2018-05-01

We investigate the present-day sensitivity of fine dust levels in the US Southwest to regional drought conditions and use the observed relationships to assess future changes in fine dust levels and associated health impacts under climate change. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis reveals that the most dominant mode of fine dust interannual variability for each season consists of a pattern of large-scale co-variability across the Southwest. This mode is strongly correlated to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) accumulated over 1–6 months in local and surrounding regions spanning the major North American deserts. Across the seasons, a unit decrease in the 2 month SPEI averaged over the US Southwest and northern Mexico is significantly associated with increases in Southwest fine dust of 0.22–0.43 μg m‑3. We apply these sensitivities to statistically downscaled meteorological output from 22 climate models following two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and project future increases in seasonal mean fine dust of 0.04–0.10 μg m‑3 (5%–8%) under RCP2.6 and 0.15–0.55 μg m‑3 (26%–46%) under RCP8.5 relative to the present-day (2076–2095 vs. 1996–2015). Combined with the same projections of future population and baseline incidence rates, annual premature mortality attributable to fine dust exposure could increase by 140 (24%) deaths under RCP2.6 and 750 (130%) deaths under RCP8.5 for adults aged ≥30 years, and annual hospitalizations due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses could increase by 170 (59%) admissions under RCP2.6 and 860 (300%) admissions under RCP8.5 for adults aged ≥65 years in the Southwest relative to the present-day. Our results highlight a climate penalty that has important socioeconomic and policy implications for the US Southwest but is not yet widely recognized.

A Climate Statistics Tool and Data Repository

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Kuiper, J. A.; Orr, A.

2017-12-01

Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory and collaborating organizations have generated regional scale, dynamically downscaled climate model output using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.3.1 at a 12km horizontal spatial resolution over much of North America. The WRF model is driven by boundary conditions obtained from three independent global scale climate models and two different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios, named representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The repository of results has a temporal resolution of three hours for all the simulations, includes more than 50 variables, is stored in Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) files, and the data volume is nearly 600Tb. A condensed 800Gb set of NetCDF files were made for selected variables most useful for climate-related planning, including daily precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and wind. The WRF model simulations are conducted for three 10-year time periods (1995-2004, 2045-2054, and 2085-2094), and two future scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). An open-source tool was coded using Python 2.7.8 and ESRI ArcGIS 10.3.1 programming libraries to parse the NetCDF files, compute summary statistics, and output results as GIS layers. Eight sets of summary statistics were generated as examples for the contiguous U.S. states and much of Alaska, including number of days over 90°F, number of days with a heat index over 90°F, heat waves, monthly and annual precipitation, drought, extreme precipitation, multi-model averages, and model bias. This paper will provide an overview of the project to generate the main and condensed data repositories, describe the Python tool and how to use it, present the GIS results of the computed examples, and discuss some of the ways they can be used for planning. The condensed climate data, Python tool, computed GIS results, and documentation of the work are shared on the Internet.

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

PubMed

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China.

PubMed

Dai, Erfu; Wu, Zhuo; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Weimin; Wang, Xiaofan

2016-11-01

In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS-II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010-2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad-leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad-leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Patterns and Variability of Projected Bioclimatic Habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J.; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios. PMID:25372719

Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Dalal, Mamta; Pattnayak, R. K.

2017-05-01

Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

PubMed

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detecting climate change oriented and human induced changes in stream temperature across the Southeastern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Voisin, N.; Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Nijssen, B.; Yearsley, J. R.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

In many areas, climate change is expected to alter the flow regime and increase stream temperature, especially during summer low flow periods. During these low flow periods, water management increases flows in order to sustain human activities such as water for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. Water extraction from rivers during warm season can increase stream temperature while reservoir regulation may cool downstream river temperatures by releasing cool water from deep layers. Thus, it is reasonable to hypothesize that water management changes the sensitivity of the stream temperature regime to climate change when compared to unmanaged resources. The time of emergence of change refers to the point in time when observations, or model simulations, show statistically significant changes from a given baseline period, i.e. above natural variability. Here we aim to address two questions by investigating the time of emergence of changes in stream temperature in the southeastern United States: what is the sensitivity of stream temperature under regulated flow conditions to climate change and what is the contribution of water management in increasing or decreasing stream temperature sensitivity to climate change. We simulate regulated flow by using runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model as input into a large scale river routing and reservoir model MOSART-WM. The River Basin Model (RBM), a distributed stream temperature model, includes a two-layer thermal stratification module to simulate stream temperature in regulated river systems. We evaluate the timing of emergence of changes in flow and stream temperature based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We analyze the difference in emergence of change between natural and regulated streamflow. Insights will be provided toward applications for multiple sectors of activities including electrical resources adequacy studies over the southeastern U.S.

The analyses of extreme climate events over China based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Dong, W.; Feng, J.; Chou, J.

2013-12-01

The extreme climate events have a serious influence on human society. Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Climatic extremes and their changes over china in history and future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. Because of the background of global warming, in observations, the frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) have decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), the heavy precipitation days (R20) and contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most coupled models can basically simulate main characteristics of most extreme indexes. The models reproduce the mean FD and TX90P value best and can give basic trends of the FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P. High correlation coefficients between simulated results and observation are found in FD, SU and P95T. For FD and SU index, most of the models have good ability to capture the spatial differences between the mean state of the 1986-2005 and 1961-1980 periods, but for other indexes, most of models' simulation ability for spatial disparity are not so satisfactory and have to be promoted. Under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, 2.9 days and 9.9%, respectively. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, a large uncertainty still exists in the simulations of climatic extremes. Fig.1 Observed and modeled multi-year average for each index (Dotted line: observation) Table1. Extreme index definition

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanzer, Florian; Förster, Kristian; Nemec, Johanna; Strasser, Ulrich

2018-03-01

A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this - to date - the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km2) and glacierization (24-77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011-2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures.

PubMed

Wolff, Nicholas H; Mumby, Peter J; Devlin, Michelle; Anthony, Kenneth R N

2018-05-01

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run-off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017-2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near-term, relative to current state, followed by climate-driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business-as-usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate-driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR-wide reef performance will decline 27%-74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Land use and climate change impacts on runoff and soil erosion at the hillslope scale in the Brazilian Cerrado.

PubMed

Anache, Jamil A A; Flanagan, Dennis C; Srivastava, Anurag; Wendland, Edson C

2018-05-01

Land use and climate change can influence runoff and soil erosion, threatening soil and water conservation in the Cerrado biome in Brazil. The adoption of a process-based model was necessary due to the lack of long-term observed data. Our goals were to calibrate the WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model for different land uses under subtropical conditions in the Cerrado biome; predict runoff and soil erosion for these different land uses; and simulate runoff and soil erosion considering climate change. We performed the model calibration using a 5-year dataset (2012-2016) of observed runoff and soil loss in four different land uses (wooded Cerrado, tilled fallow without plant cover, pasture, and sugarcane) in experimental plots. Selected soil and management parameters were optimized for each land use during the WEPP model calibration with the existing field data. The simulations were conducted using the calibrated WEPP model components with a 100-year climate dataset created with CLIGEN (weather generator) based on regional climate statistics. We obtained downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections, and runoff and soil loss were predicted with WEPP using future climate scenarios for 2030, 2060, and 2090 considering different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The WEPP model had an acceptable performance for the subtropical conditions. Land use can influence runoff and soil loss rates in a significant way. Potential climate changes, which indicate the increase of rainfall intensities and depths, may increase the variability and rates of runoff and soil erosion. However, projected climate changes did not significantly affect the runoff and soil erosion for the four analyzed land uses at our location. Finally, the runoff behavior was distinct for each land use, but for soil loss we found similarities between pasture and wooded Cerrado, suggesting that the soil may attain a sustainable level when the land management follows conservation principles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD. PMID:28797067

Simultaneous reductions in emissions of black carbon and co-emitted species will weaken the aerosol net cooling effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z. L.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, X. Y.

2015-04-01

Black carbon (BC), a distinct type of carbonaceous material formed from the incomplete combustion of fossil and biomass based fuels under certain conditions, can interact with solar radiation and clouds through its strong light-absorption ability, thereby warming the Earth's climate system. Some studies have even suggested that global warming could be slowed down in the short term by eliminating BC emission due to its short lifetime. In this study, we estimate the influence of removing some sources of BC and other co-emitted species on the aerosol radiative effect by using an aerosol-climate atmosphere-only model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice cover, in combination with the aerosol emissions from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. We find that the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) will be enhanced by 0.12 W m-2 compared with recent past year 2000 levels if the emissions of only BC are reduced to the level projected for 2100 based on the RCP2.6 scenario. This will be beneficial~for the mitigation of global warming. However, both aerosol negative direct and indirect radiative effects are weakened when BC and its co-emitted species (sulfur dioxide and organic carbon) are simultaneously reduced. Relative to year 2000 levels, the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the TOA will be weakened by 1.7-2.0 W m-2 if the emissions of all these aerosols are decreased to the levels projected for 2100 in different ways based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Because there are no effective ways to remove the BC exclusively without influencing the other co-emitted components, our results therefore indicate that a reduction in BC emission can lead to an unexpected warming on the Earth's climate system in the future.

Modelling soil erosion in rainfed vineyards of northeast of Spain under climate change: effects of increasing rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Concepción Ramos, Maria

2017-04-01

This aim of the research was to analyse the effect of rainfall distribution and intensity on soil erosion in vines cultivated in the Mediterranean under the projected climate change scenario. The simulations were done at plot scale using the WEPP model. Climatic data for the period 1996-2014 were obtained from a meteorological station located 6km far from the plot. Soil characteristics such as texture, organic matter content, water retention capacity and infiltration were analysed. Runoff and soil losses were measured at four locations within the plot during 4 years and used to calibrate and validate the model. According to evidences recorded in the area, changes of rainfall intensities of 10 and 20% were considered for different rainfall distributions. The simulations were extended to the predicted changes for 2030, 2050 and 2070 based on the HadGEM2-CC under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 scenario. WEPP model provided a suitable prediction of the seasonal runoff and erosion as simulated relatively well the runoff and erosion of the most important events although some deficiencies were found for those events that produced low runoff. The simulation confirmed the contribution of the extreme events to annual erosion rates in 70%, on average. The model responded to changes in precipitation predicted under a climate change scenario with a decrease of runoff and erosion, and with higher erosion rates for an increase in rainfall intensity. A 10% increase may imply erosion rates up to 22% greater for the scenario 2030, and despite the predicted decrease in precipitation for the scenario 2050, soil losses may be up to 40% greater than at present for some rainfall distributions and intensity rainfall increases of 20%. These findings show the need of considering rainfall intensity as one of the main driven factors when soil erosion rates under climate change are predicted. Keywords: extreme events, rainfall distribution, runoff, soil losses, wines, WEPP.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Hirata, Akiko; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Modeling of local sea level rise and its future projection under climate change using regional information through EOF analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naren, A.; Maity, Rajib

2017-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the manifestations of climate change and may cause a threat to the coastal regions. Estimates from global circulation models (GCMs) are either not available on coastal locations due to their coarse spatial resolution or not reliable since the mismatch between (interpolated) GCM estimates at coastal locations and actual observation over historical period is significantly different. We propose a semi-empirical framework to model the local sea level rise (SLR) using the possibly existing relationship between local SLR and regional atmospheric/oceanic variables. Selection of set of input variables mostly based on the literature bears the signature of both atmospheric and oceanic variables that possibly have an effect on SLR. The proposed approach offers a method to extract the combined information hidden in the regional fields of atmospheric/oceanic variables for a specific target coastal location. Generality of the approach ensures the inclusion of more variables in the set of inputs depending on the geographical location of any coastal station. For demonstration, 14 coastal locations along the Indian coast and islands are considered and a set of regional atmospheric and oceanic variables are considered. After development and validation of the model at each coastal location with the historical data, the model is further used for future projection of local SLR up to the year 2100 for three different future emission scenarios represented by representative concentration pathways (RCPs)—RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The maximum projected SLR is found to vary from 260.65 to 393.16 mm (RCP8.5) by the end of 2100 among the locations considered. Outcome of the proposed approach is expected to be useful in regional coastal management and in developing mitigation strategies in a changing climate.

Coupling integrated assessment and earth system models: concepts and an application to land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.

2016-12-01

Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.

Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century.

PubMed

Mi, Chunrong; Falk, Huettmann; Guo, Yumin

2016-01-01

The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500-2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest) with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not). We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs)), and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil and mine exploitation. All of these are negatively and intensely linked with global change.

Long-term projections of temperature-related mortality risks for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and acute ischemic heart disease under changing climate in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Liu, Fangchao; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

2018-03-01

Changing climates have been causing variations in the number of global ischemic heart disease and stroke incidences, and will continue to affect disease occurrence in the future. To project temperature-related mortality for acute ischemic heart disease, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with concomitant climate warming. We estimated the exposure-response relationship between daily cause-specific mortality and daily mean temperature in Beijing. We utilized outputs from 31 downscaled climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. This strategy was used to estimate future net temperature along with heat- and cold-related deaths. The results for predicted temperature-related deaths were subsequently contrasted with the baseline period. In the 2080s, using the RCP8.5 and no population variation scenarios, the net total number of annual temperature-related deaths exhibited a median value of 637 (with a range across models of 434-874) for ischemic stroke; this is an increase of approximately 100% compared with the 1980s. The median number of projected annual temperature-related deaths was 660 (with a range across models of 580-745) for hemorrhagic stroke (virtually no change compared with the 1980s), and 1683 (with a range across models of 1351-2002) for acute ischemic heart disease (a slight increase of approximately 20% compared with the 1980s). In the 2080s, the monthly death projection for hemorrhagic stroke and acute ischemic heart disease showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter while the largest absolute changes for ischemic stroke occurred in summer. We projected that the temperature-related mortality associated with ischemic stroke will increase dramatically due to climate warming. However, projected temperature-related mortality pertaining to acute ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke should remain relatively stable over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urban Heat Wave Vulnerability Analysis Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JE, M.; KIM, H.; Jung, S.

2017-12-01

Much attention has been paid to thermal environments in Seoul City in South Korea since 2016 when the worst heatwave in 22 years. It is necessary to provide a selective measure by singling out vulnerable regions in advance to cope with the heat wave-related damage. This study aims to analyze and categorize vulnerable regions of thermal environments in the Seoul and analyzes and discusses the factors and risk factors for each type. To do this, this study conducted the following processes: first, based on the analyzed various literature reviews, indices that can evaluate vulnerable regions of thermal environment are collated. The indices were divided into climate exposure index related to temperature, sensitivity index including demographic, social, and economic indices, and adaptation index related to urban environment and climate adaptation policy status. Second, significant variables were derived to evaluate a vulnerable region of thermal environment based on the summarized indices in the above. this study analyzed a relationship between the number of heat-related patients in Seoul and variables that affected the number using multi-variate statistical analysis to derive significant variables. Third, the importance of each variable was calculated quantitatively by integrating the statistical analysis results and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Fourth, a distribution of data for each index was identified based on the selected variables and indices were normalized and overlapped. Fifth, For the climate exposure index, evaluations were conducted as same as the current vulnerability evaluation method by selecting future temperature of Seoul predicted through the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios as an evaluation variable. The results of this study can be utilized as foundational data to establish a countermeasure against heatwave in Seoul. Although it is limited to control heatwave occurrences itself completely, improvements on environment for heatwave alleviation and response can be done. In particular, if vulnerable regions of heatwave can be identified and managed in advance, the study results are expected to be utilized as a basis of policy utilization in local communities accordingly.

Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

PubMed

Monahan, William B; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

2013-01-01

Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2)) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management.

Linking Pan-European data to the local scale for decision making for global change and water scarcity within water resources planning and management.

PubMed

Suárez-Almiñana, Sara; Pedro-Monzonís, María; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín; Solera, Abel

2017-12-15

This study focuses on a novel type of methodology which connects Pan-European data to the local scale in the field of water resources management. This methodology is proposed to improve and facilitate the decision making within the planning and management of water resources, taking into account climate change and its expected impacts. Our main point of interest is focused on the assessment of the predictability of extreme events and their possible effects, specifically droughts and water scarcity. Consequently, the Júcar River Basin was selected as the case study, due to the ongoing water scarcity problems and the last drought episodes suffered in the Mediterranean region. In order to study these possible impacts, we developed a modeling chain divided into four steps, they are: i) data collection, ii) analysis of available data, iii) models calibration and iv) climate impact analysis. Over previous steps, we used climate data from 15 different regional climate models (RCMs) belonging to the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) coming from a hydrological model across all of Europe called E-HYPE. The data were bias corrected and used to obtain statistical results of the availability of water resources for the future (horizon 2039) and in form of indicators. This was performed through a hydrological (EVALHID), stochastic (MASHWIN) and risk management (SIMRISK) models, all of which were specifically calibrated for this basin. The results show that the availability of water resources is much more enthusiastic than in the current situation, indicating the possibility that climate change, which was predicted to occur in the future has already happened in the Júcar River Basin. It seems that the so called "Effect 80", an important decrease in water resources for the last three decades, is not well contemplated in the initial data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, Colin S.; Pyare, Sanjay; Goldstein, Michael I.; Alaback, Paul B.; Albert, David M.; Beier, Colin M.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Edwards, Rick T.; Hood, Eran; MacKinnon, Andy; McPhee, Megan V.; Patterson, Trista; Suring, Lowell H.; Tallmon, David; Wipfli, Mark S.

2015-01-01

We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Wanders, Niko; Marx, Andreas; Pan, Ming; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Zink, Matthias

2018-01-01

Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow melt equivalent decreases flood events in this region. Neglecting uncertainties originating from internal climate variability, downscaling technique, and hydrologic model parameters, the contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

Adapting wheat to uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, Mikhail; Stratonovitch, Pierre

2015-04-01

This study describes integration of climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble with the LARS-WG weather generator, which delivers an attractive option for downscaling of large-scale climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments. A subset of 18 GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble and 2 RCPs, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were integrated with LARS-WG. Climate sensitivity indexes for temperature and precipitation were computed for all GCMs and for 21 regions in the world. For computationally demanding impact assessments, where it is not practical to explore all possible combinations of GCM × RCP, climate sensitivity indexes could be used to select a subset of GCMs from CMIP5 with contrasting climate sensitivity. This would allow to quantify uncertainty in impacts resulting from the CMIP5 ensemble by conducting fewer simulation experiments. As an example, an in silico design of wheat ideotype optimised for future climate scenarios in Europe was described. Two contrasting GCMs were selected for the analysis, "hot" HadGEM2-ES and "cool" GISS-E2-R-CC, along with 2 RCPs. Despite large uncertainty in climate projections, several wheat traits were identified as beneficial for the high-yielding wheat ideotypes that could be used as targets for wheat improvement by breeders.

Respiratory care manpower issues.

PubMed

Mathews, Paul; Drumheller, Lois; Carlow, John J

2006-03-01

Although respiratory care is a relatively new profession, its practitioners are deeply involved in providing patient care in the critical care. In preparation for writing this article, we sought to explore the respiratory therapy manpower needs and activities designed to fulfill those needs in critical care practice. We began by delineating the historical development of respiratory care as a profession, the development of its education, and the professional credentialing system. We then conducted several literature reviews with few articles generated. We requested and received data from the American Association for Respiratory Care (AARC), The National Board for Respiratory Care (NBRC), and the Committee on Accreditation of Respiratory Care education (CoARC) relative to their membership, number of credentialed individuals, and educational program student and graduate data for 2000 through 2004. We then conducted two electronic surveys. Survey 1 was a six-item survey that examined the use of mandatory overtime in respiratory care departments. We used a convenience sample of 30 hospitals stratified by size (or=500 beds). Survey 2 was a five-item instrument distributed by blast E-mail to the Society of Critical Care Medicine's Respiratory Care Section members and members of the RC_World list serve. This survey elicited 51 usable and non-duplicative responses from geographically and size-varied institutions. We analyzed these data in several ways from distribution analysis to one-way analysis of variance procedure and appropriate post hoc analysis techniques. Where appropriate, a matched-pairs analysis was performed and these were compared across the variables intensive care unit (ICU) beds per actual number of respiratory care practitioners (RCPs) and ICU beds per preferred number of RCPs. The data gathered from the professional organizations indicated a relatively stable attrition rate (35.2%+/-1.7-3.1%), even in the face of varying enrollments (6,231 in 2004 vs. 4,589 in 2002). In survey 1, we looked at the institution of mandatory overtime policies and their use in 30 size-stratified hospitals. Mandatory overtime was selected as a survey topic under the supposition that manpower shortages might lead to the development of such procedures and also to their utilization. Fourteen of the 30 hospitals responding indicated that they had a policy addressing mandatory over time. Of the 14 hospitals with policies, only ten had disciplinary actions specific to refusing the overtime. Seven of the 30 hospitals indicated that they used mandatory overtime monthly of more frequently. Survey 2 data revealed that there was a wide variation in bed size, number of ICUs, and number of RCP staff assigned to the ICU. Serendipitously, our 51 responding centers were distributed among small (16), medium (19), and large (16) hospitals in a manner that appeared to reflect the national distribution pattern. We were able to use these data to develop a closeness of fit diagram ICU beds to preferred numbers of RCPs (DF=48; p<.0001; RSq=0.77; RMSE=4.114). The number of beds per preferred number of RCPs was 9.445 to 1.0 while the actual bed to RCP ratio was 10.75 to 1. This article provides a short history of the development of respiratory care and its historical relationship with critical care. We have, perhaps for the first time, provided a unified data set of key demographic information from the three professional bodies guiding the development of the respiratory therapy profession. This data set provides time-linked data on admissions and graduations from the CoARC, membership numbers for the AARC, and the numbers of active credentialed RCP from the NBRC. By two focused surveys, we were able to show that while mandatory overtime is a common practice in respiratory care departments, it was not overwhelming utilized. We also learned that in most hospitals, regardless of bed size, there is a perceived need for 1.3 RCPs more than the actual staff and that it appears that the critical staffing level between actual to preferred RCP to beds is between 9 and 11 beds.

Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yira, Yacouba; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Steup, Gero; Yaovi Bossa, Aymar

2017-04-01

This study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs)-global climate models (GCMs) in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso). The applied climate datasets were performed in the framework of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project.

After evaluation of the historical runs of the climate models' ensemble, a statistical bias correction (empirical quantile mapping) was applied to daily precipitation. Temperature and bias corrected precipitation data from the ensemble of RCMs-GCMs was then used as input for the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate water balance components.

The mean hydrological and climate variables for two periods (1971-2000 and 2021-2050) were compared to assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources up to the middle of the 21st century under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicate (i) a clear signal of temperature increase of about 0.1 to 2.6 °C for all members of the RCM-GCM ensemble; (ii) high uncertainty about how the catchment precipitation will evolve over the period 2021-2050; (iii) the applied bias correction method only affected the magnitude of the climate change signal; (iv) individual climate models results lead to opposite discharge change signals; and (v) the results for the RCM-GCM ensemble are too uncertain to give any clear direction for future hydrological development. Therefore, potential increase and decrease in future discharge have to be considered in climate change adaptation strategies in the catchment. The results further underline on the one hand the need for a larger ensemble of projections to properly estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources in the catchment and on the other hand the high uncertainty associated with climate projections for the West African region. A water-energy budget analysis provides further insight into the behavior of the catchment.

Response of permafrost to projected climate change: Results from global offline model simulations with JSBACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blome, Tanja; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian; Hagemann, Stefan

2014-05-01

Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. In order to assess the response of permafrost to projected climate change for the 21st century, the land surface scheme of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, JSBACH, has recently been equipped with the important physical processes for permafrost studies, and was driven globally with bias corrected climate data, thereby spanning a period from 1850 until 2100. The applied land surface scheme JSBACH now considers the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. To address the uncertainty range arising through different greenhouse gas concentrations as well as through different climate realisations when using various climate models, combinations of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and two GCMs were used as driving data. In order to focus only on the climatic impact on permafrost, effects due to feedbacks between climate and permafrost (namely via carbon fluxes between land and atmosphere) are excluded in the experiments. Differences between future time slices and today's climate are analysed. The effect in relevant variables, such as permafrost extent, depth of the Active Layer, ground temperature, and amount of soil carbon, is investigated. The experiments (as well as the development of JSBACH with respect to permafrost soil physics) are part of the European project PAGE21, where a focus is set on interactions between the changing climate and its impact on permafrost, especially for the 21st century.

Analysis of job satisfaction, burnout, and intent of respiratory care practitioners to leave the field or the job.

PubMed

Shelledy, D C; Mikles, S P; May, D F; Youtsey, J W

1992-01-01

Increased stress, burnout, and lack of job satisfaction may contribute to a decline in work performance, absenteeism, and intent to leave one's job or field. We undertook to determine organizational, job-specific, and personal predictors of level of burnout among respiratory care practitioners (RCPs). We also examined the relationships among burnout, job satisfaction (JS), absenteeism, and RCPs' intent to leave their job or the field. A pilot-tested assessment instrument was mailed to all active NBRC-credentialed RCPs in Georgia (n = 788). There were 458 usable returns (58% response rate). A random sample of 10% of the nonrespondents (n = 33) was then surveyed by telephone, and the results were compared to those of the mail respondents. Variables were compared to burnout and JS scores by correlational analysis, which was followed by stepwise multiple regression analyses to determine the ability of the independent variables to predict burnout and JS scores when used in combination. There were no significant differences between respondents and sampled nonrespondents in burnout scores (p = 0.56) or JS (p = 0.24). Prediction of burnout: The coefficient of multiple correlation, R2, indicated that in combination the independent variables accounted for 61% of the variance in burnout scores. The strongest predictor of burnout was job stress. Other job-related predictors of burnout were size of department, satisfaction with work, satisfaction with co-workers and co-worker support, job independence and job control, recognition by nursing, and role clarity. Personal-variable predictors were age, number of previous jobs held, social support, and intent to leave the field of respiratory care. Prediction of job satisfaction: R2 indicated that, in combination, the independent variables accounted for 63% of the variance observed in satisfaction with work, 36% of the variance observed in satisfaction with pay, 36% of the variance in satisfaction with promotions, 62% of the variance in satisfaction with supervision, and 48% of the variance in satisfaction with co-workers. Predictors of work-satisfaction level were recognition by physicians and nursing, age, burn-out level, absenteeism, and intent to leave the field. Predictors of level of satisfaction with pay were actual salary, job independence, organizational climate, ease of obtaining time off, job stress, absenteeism, intent to leave the field, and number of dependent children. Predictors of level of satisfaction with promotions were recognition by nursing, participation in decision making, job stress, intent to leave the field, past turnover rates, and absenteeism. Predictors of level of satisfaction with supervision included supervisor support, role clarity, independence, and ease of obtaining time off. The strongest predictor of level of satisfaction with co-workers was co-worker support. As overall level of JS increased, level of burnout decreased significantly (r = -0.59, p less than 0.001). As burnout level increased, increases occurred in absenteeism (r = 0.22, p less than 0.001), intent to leave the job (r = 0.48, p less than 0.001), and intent to leave the field (r = 0.51, p less than 0.001). Reduced job stress, increased job independence and job control, improved role clarity, and higher levels of JS were all associated with lower levels of burnout. Managerial attention to these factors may improve patient care and reduce absenteeism and turnover among RCPs.

Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2015-09-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Disentangling nutrient concentrations trends in transfer pathways of agricultural watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellander, P. E.; Jordan, P.

2017-12-01

Targeted schemes designed to attenuate agricultural pollution to water are needed to reach goals of sustainable food production. Such approaches require insight into temporal and spatial variability in the most representative flows and active pollution transfer pathways. Interpreting changes in total stream flow can be misleading since some changes may only be apparent in specific pathways. The aim of this study was to investigate changing land use pressures on water quality. The objectives were to assess intra-annual and inter-annual changes in phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) concentrations and loads in apportioned pathways. Pathways were separated using hydrograph and loadograph separation techniques on a seven-year dataset of sub-hourly river discharge and concentrations of NO3-N, reactive P and total P in two intensively managed agricultural watersheds of contrasting hydrology in Ireland. Active transfer pathways were dictated by soil drainage. There were intra-annual variability in both P and N concentrations in different pathways and loads, and these had the largest influence of all-year baseflow (BF) concentrations and summer quickflow (QF) concentrations. Nutrient loss responded to seasonality in the river discharge in all pathways in both watersheds and was mostly transport limited. In both watersheds there were inter-annual trends in P concentration in some pathways and seasons that did not correspond to the trend of total river P concentration. The response in stream water quality to management, mitigation measures and changes in weather may be hidden by counteracting responses in different pathways. The hydrology had a major impact on seasonal changes in N and P loss. By apportioning different transfer pathways more information on the temporal and site-specific nature of nutrient transfer was provided. BF and QF pathways largely contributed to the river P concentrations in summer while all pathways contributed to the P and N loads in wintertime. The data indicated that increasing trends in river P concentrations were mostly linked to trends in BF concentration in both catchment types. This may be explained by increased point source influence, increased vertical transfer through increased soil P loading, or decreased stream bed attenuation. Each will require different policy considerations.

Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber-Garcia, Verena; Akinsete, Ebun; Gampe, David; Ker Rault, Philippe; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Luttik, Joke; Nikulin, Grigory; Pistocchi, Alberto; Souliotis, Ioannis; Ludwig, Ralf

2017-04-01

Water and water-related services are major components of the human wellbeing, and as such are major factors of socio-economic development; yet freshwater systems are under threat by a variety of stressors (organic and inorganic pollution, geomorphological alterations, land cover change, water abstraction, invasive species and pathogens). Water scarcity is most commonly associated with inappropriate water management and resulting river flow reductions. It has become one of the most important drivers of change in freshwater ecosystems. Conjoint occurrence of a myriad of stressors (chemical, geomorphological, biological) under water scarcity will produce novel and unfamiliar synergies and most likely very pronounced effects. Stressors are hierarchically arranged in terms of intensity, frequency and scale, and their effects can be predicted to be from transient to irreversible. Most ecosystems are simulta¬neously exposed to multiple-stress situations. Within the scope of the GLOBAQUA project the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems in selected river basins across Europe with a focus on areas suffering from water scarcity are analyzed. In addition, management strategies are improved and adapted with the aim of inhibiting adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems and ensuring the supply with water for all purposes in the study areas also in the future. Policy relevant implications will be given to ensure a best possible status of these aquatic ecosystems also under future conditions. In this context, land use and land cover as well as the meteorological conditions can be seen as two main stressors for the quality and quantity of surface and subsurface water. These factors considerably affect the use and availability of water, especially in regions which already experience water scarcity. If the problem is not addressed correctly, negative effects on biodiversity, water supply as well as important economic consequences may arise. In Europe, many fresh water systems experience this and a worsening of the situation can be expected if actions are not taken. To assess future conditions, spatially distributed, integrated scenarios to drive various impact models are inevitable. These simulations then assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems, both in water quality and quantity, and in the end provide decision support. To achieve this goal, a modeling framework is set up to develop integrated scenarios of changes in climate, land use and water management. These scenarios are based on storylines around various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and developed in collaboration with project partners and experts. Major challenges stem from the downscaling of these to the regional scale. Projections of future climate conditions originate from the simulations provided through the EURO-CORDEX project. An ensemble of different General Circulation Models (GCMs) driving various Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is available. After a thorough investigation of these projections and an estimation of the uncertainty envelope, a small subset of models was chosen in a carefully conducted selection procedure, following a cluster analysis. These selected simulations were downscaled to better represent the regional conditions and provide the implications of the RCPs in the storylines. The impacts of the SSPs are represented in spatially distributed land use maps developed through the land use change model iCLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects). In a first step knowledge on past land use change is required and an analysis was carried out based on the CORINE land cover data. Extensive expert surveys have been conducted in the case study areas to determine the most important drivers of these changes, considering both, biophysical and socio-economic variables. The results of these were implemented in iCLUE taking into account dynamic changes of the climate, population and economy. Climate and land use projections will then be applied to provide possible future conditions and various impact modeling activities within the GLOBAQUA project. This approach is favored over a non-integrated approach using only climate projections, and required to develop and test site specific Programs of Measures (PoMs). Eventually, decision support can be provided to local authorities for effective PoMs. [The funding for this research through the FP7-project GLOBAQUA by the European Commission (GA: 603629) is gratefully acknowledged.

Creating Learning Experiences that Promote Informal Science Education: Designing Conservation-Focused Interactive Zoo Exhibits through Action Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalenda, Peter

Research on exhibit design over the past twenty years has started to identify many different methods to increase the learning that occurs in informal education environments. This study utilized relevant research on exhibit design to create and study the effectiveness of a mobile interactive exhibit at the Seneca Park Zoo that promotes socialization, engagement in science, and conservation-related practices among guests. This study will serve as one component of a major redesign project at the Seneca Park Zoo for their Rocky Coasts exhibit. This action research study targeted the following question, "How can interactive exhibits be designed to promote socialization, engagement in science, and real-world conservation-related practices (RCPs) among zoo guests?" Specific research questions included: 1. In what ways did guests engage with the exhibit? 2. In what ways were guests impacted by the exhibit? a) What evidence exists, if any, of guests learning science content from the exhibit? b) What evidence exists, if any, of guests being emotionally affected by the exhibit? c) What evidence exists, if any, of guests changing their RCPs after visiting the exhibit? Data were collected through zoo guest surveys completed by zoo guests comparing multiple exhibits, interviews with guests before and after they used the prototype exhibit, observations and audio recordings of guests using the prototype exhibit, and follow-up phone interviews with guests who volunteered to participate. Data were analyzed collaboratively with members of the zoo's exhibit Redesign Team using grounded theory qualitative data analysis techniques to find patterns and trends among data. Initial findings from data analysis were used to develop shifts in the exhibit in order to increase visitor engagement and learning. This process continued for two full action research spirals, which resulted in three iterations of the prototype exhibit. The overall findings of this study highlight the ways in which guests engaged with and were impacted by this exhibit. Findings revealed the importance of the location of interactives and signage as well as a range of readability concerns for visitor engagement. In addition, findings highlight the roles of parents in informal learning environments, and the impact of exhibit design on dwell time and questioning. This study demonstrates the value and importance of utilizing an iterative design process informed by action research when creating learning experiences in zoos. This study also reinforces how difficult it can be to both influence and measure the shifting of guests' RCPs.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krysanova, Valentina; Vetter, Tobias; Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Strauch, Michael; Gelfan, Alexander; Kumar, Rohini; Aich, Valentin; Arheimer, Berit; Chamorro, Alejandro; van Griensven, Ann; Kundu, Dipangkar; Lobanova, Anastasia; Mishra, Vimal; Plötner, Stefan; Reinhardt, Julia; Seidou, Ousmane; Wang, Xiaoyan; Wortmann, Michel; Zeng, Xiaofan; Hattermann, Fred F.

2017-10-01

An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971-2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070-2099 in relation to the reference period 1975-2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins were 57% for GCMs, 27% for RCPs, and 16% for hydrological models.

Estimation of future flow regime for a spatially varied Himalayan watershed using improved multi-site calibration method of SWAT model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhanang, S. M.; Hasan, M. A.; Booth, P.; Fallatah, O.

2016-12-01

The monsoon and snow driven regime in the Himalayan region has received increasing attention in the recent decade regarding the effects of climate change on hydrologic regimes. Modeling streamflow in such spatially varied catchment requires proper calibration and validation in hydrologic modeling. While calibration and validation are time consuming and computationally intensive, an effective regionalized approach with multi-site information is crucial for flow estimation, especially in daily scale. In this study, we adopted a multi-site approach to calibration and validation of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Karnali river catchment, which is characterized as being the most vulnerable catchment to climate change in the Himalayan region. APHRODITE's (Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) daily gridded precipitation data, one of the accurate and reliable weather date over this region were utilized in this study. The model evaluation of the entire catchment divided into four sub-catchments, utilizing discharge records from 1963 to 2010. In previous studies, multi-site calibration used only a single set of calibration parameters for all sub-catchment of a large watershed. In this study, we introduced a technique that can incorporate different sets of calibration parameters for each sub-basin, which eventually ameliorate the flow of the whole watershed. Results show that the calibrated model with new method can capture almost identical pattern of flow over the region. The predicted daily streamflow matched the observed values, with a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.73 during calibration and 0.71 during validation period. The method perfumed better than existing multi-site calibration methods. To assess the influence of continued climate change on hydrologic processes, we modified the weather inputs for the model using precipitation and temperature changes for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Climate simulation for RCP scenarios were conducted from 1981-2100, where 1981-2005 was considered as baseline and 2006-2100 was considered as the future projection. The result shows that probability of flooding will eventually increase in future years due to increased flow in both scenarios.

Protecting Future Biodiversity via Re-allocation of Future Land-use Change Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chini, L. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Jantz, S.; Brooks, T.; Leon, C.; Waldhoff, S.; Edmonds, J.

2013-12-01

Future scenarios, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), are typically designed to meet a radiative forcing target while also producing enough food and energy for a growing population. In the assessment process, impacts of these scenarios for other important variables such as biodiversity loss are considered 'downstream', after the future climate has been simulated within Earth System Models. However, the direct land-use impacts associated with future scenarios often have as much impact on these issues as the changing climate; in addition, many different patterns of land-use can result in the same radiative forcing target. In the case of biodiversity loss, one of the greatest contributors to species extinction is the loss of habitat such as primary forest, which is a direct result of land-use change decisions. By considering issues such as the preservation of future biodiversity 'up-front' in the scenario process, we can design a scenario that not only meets a radiative forcing target and feeds a growing planet, but also preserves as much habitat as possible through careful spatial allocation of future land-use change. Our Global Land-use Model (GLM) is used to provide 'harmonized' land-use data for the RCP process. GLM preserves as much information as possible from the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) while spatially allocating regional IAM land-use change data, ensuring a continuous transition from historical to future land-use states, and producing annual, gridded (0.5°×0.5°), fractional land-use states and all associated transitions. In this presentation we will present results from new GLM simulations in which land-use change decisions are constrained to meet the mutual goals of protecting important eco-regions (e.g. biodiversity hotspots) from future land-use change, providing enough food and fiber for a growing planet, and remaining consistent with the radiative forcing targets of the future scenarios. Trade-offs between agricultural demand and biodiversity protection were needed in some scenarios, but by constraining the land-use decisions to protect future biodiversity, an estimated 10-25% of species could be saved from loss between 2005 and 2100 (Jantz et al. 2013, in prep).

Ecological niche modeling for a cultivated plant species: a case study on taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii.

PubMed

Kodis, Mali'o; Galante, Peter; Sterling, Eleanor J; Blair, Mary E

2018-04-26

Under the threat of ongoing and projected climate change, communities in the Pacific Islands face challenges of adapting culture and lifestyle to accommodate a changing landscape. Few models can effectively predict how biocultural livelihoods might be impacted. Here, we examine how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence an ecological niche model (ENM) for the realized niche of cultivated taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii. We created and tuned two sets of ENMs: one using only environmental variables, and one using both environmental and cultural characteristics of Hawaii. These models were projected under two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2070. Models were selected and evaluated using average omission rate and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We compared optimal model predictions by comparing the percentage of taro plots predicted present and measured ENM overlap using Schoener's D statistic. The model including only environmental variables consisted of 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables, in addition to slope, altitude, distance to perennial streams, soil evaporation, and soil moisture. The optimal model with environmental variables plus anthropogenic features also included a road density variable (which we assumed as a proxy for urbanization) and a variable indicating agricultural lands of importance to the state of Hawaii. The model including anthropogenic features performed better than the environment-only model based on omission rate, AUC, and review of spatial projections. The two models also differed in spatial projections for taro under anticipated future climate change. Our results demonstrate how ENMs including anthropogenic features can predict which areas might be best suited to plant cultivated species in the future, and how these areas could change under various climate projections. These predictions might inform biocultural conservation priorities and initiatives. In addition, we discuss the incongruences that arise when traditional ENM theory is applied to species whose distribution has been significantly impacted by human intervention, particularly at a fine scale relevant to biocultural conservation initiatives. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Using a Statistical Approach to Anticipate Leaf Wetness Duration Under Climate Change in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huard, F.; Imig, A. F.; Perrin, P.

2014-12-01

Leaf wetness plays a major role in the development of fungal plant diseases. Leaf wetness duration (LWD) above a threshold value is determinant for infection and can be seen as a good indicator of impact of climate on infection occurrence and risk. As LWD is not widely measured, several methods, based on physics and empirical approach, have been developed to estimate it from weather data. Many LWD statistical models do exist, but the lack of standard for measurements require reassessments. A new empirical LWD model, called MEDHI (Modèle d'Estimation de la Durée d'Humectation à l'Inra) was developed for french configuration for wetness sensors (angle : 90°, height : 50 cm). This deployment is different from what is usually recommended from constructors or authors in other countries (angle from 10 to 60°, height from 10 to 150 cm…). MEDHI is a decision support system based on hourly climatic conditions at time steps n and n-1 taking account relative humidity, rainfall and previously simulated LWD. Air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, rain and LWD data from several sensors with 2 configurations were measured during 6 months in Toulouse and Avignon (South West and South East of France) to calibrate MEDHI. A comparison of empirical models : NHRH (RH threshold), DPD (dew point depression), CART (classification and regression tree analysis dependant on RH, wind speed and dew point depression) and MEDHI, using meteorological and LWD measurements obtained during 5 months in Toulouse, showed that the development of this new model MEHDI was definitely better adapted to French conditions. In the context of climate change, MEDHI was used for mapping the evolution of leaf wetness duration in France from 1950 to 2100 with the French regional climate model ALADIN under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and using a QM (Quantile-Mapping) statistical downscaling method. Results give information on the spatial distribution of infection risks during the current century. Such approach could be easily combined with thermal response curves of fungal infection for various pathogens.

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on regional climate extremes as well. The scenarios generated with the high-resolution model simulation were compared with the coarse resolution CMIP5 model scenarios to identify region specific features that might be better resolved in the former simulation.

Evaluating the impacts of climate and land-use change on the hydrology and nutrient yield in a transboundary river basin: A case study in the 3S River Basin (Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok).

PubMed

Trang, Nguyen Thi Thuy; Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Datta, Avishek; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

2017-01-15

Assessment of the climate and land-use change impacts on the hydrology and water quality of a river basin is important for the development and management of water resources in the future. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of climate and land-use change on the hydrological regime and nutrient yield from the 3S River Basin (Sekong, Srepok, and Sesan) into the 3S River system in Southeast Asia. The 3S Rivers are important tributaries of the Lower Mekong River, accounting for 16% of its annual flow. This transboundary basin supports the livelihoods of nearly 3.5 million people in the countries of Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. To reach a better understanding of the process and fate of pollution (nutrient yield) as well as the hydrological regime, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water quality and discharge in the 3S River Basin. Future scenarios were developed for three future periods: 2030s (2015-2039), 2060s (2045-2069), and 2090s (2075-2099), using an ensemble of five GCMs (General Circulation Model) simulations: (HadGEM2-AO, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-LR, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-MR), driven by the climate projection for RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways): RCP4.5 (medium emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) scenarios, and two land-use change scenarios. The results indicated that the climate in the study area would generally become warmer and wetter under both emission scenarios. Discharge and nutrient yield is predicted to increase in the wet season and decrease in the dry. Overall, the annual discharge and nutrient yield is projected to increase throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting sensitivity in the 3S River Basin to climate and land-use change. The results of this study can assist water resources managers and planners in developing water management strategies for uncertain climate change scenarios in the 3S River Basin. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yator, J. J.

2016-12-01

This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely to increase by between 8.56% and 21% by the year 2100. There exists a need for policies that safeguard agriculture against the adverse effects of climate change to alleviate food insecurity in Kenya. Therefore, it is important that climate change mitigation is given much more priority in policy planning and also implementation.

Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio-economic perspective). In our presentation we will show the cases of Peru and the Philippines, and discuss the implications for agriculture policies and risk management.

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min

2013-01-01

Background: Climate change is anticipated to influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, estimates of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves are subject to large uncertainties and have not been projected under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated future heat wave mortality in the eastern United States (approximately 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and investigated sources of uncertainty. Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057–2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. We apportioned the sources of uncertainty in excess mortality estimates using a variance-decomposition method. Results: Estimates suggest that excess mortality attributable to heat waves in the eastern United States would result in 200–7,807 deaths/year (mean 2,379 deaths/year) in 2057–2059. Average excess mortality projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1,403 and 3,556 deaths/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern states and eastern coastal areas (excluding Maine). The major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non–heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: Mortality risks from future heat waves may be an order of magnitude higher than the mortality risks reported in 2002–2004, with thousands of heat wave–related deaths per year in the study area projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. Substantial spatial variability in county-level heat mortality estimates suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data. Citation: Wu J, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Kim YM, Liu Y. 2014. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 122:10–16; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306670 PMID:24192064

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voulgarakis, A.; Naik, V.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Shindell, D. T.; Young, P. J.; Prather, M. J.; Wild, O.; Field, R. D.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith P.;

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China.

PubMed

Li, Ying; Ren, Ting; Kinney, Patrick L; Joyner, Andrew; Zhang, Wei

2018-05-01

Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scholarly Concentration Program Development: A Generalizable, Data-Driven Approach.

PubMed

Burk-Rafel, Jesse; Mullan, Patricia B; Wagenschutz, Heather; Pulst-Korenberg, Alexandra; Skye, Eric; Davis, Matthew M

2016-11-01

Scholarly concentration programs-also known as scholarly projects, pathways, tracks, or pursuits-are increasingly common in U.S. medical schools. However, systematic, data-driven program development methods have not been described. The authors examined scholarly concentration programs at U.S. medical schools that U.S. News & World Report ranked as top 25 for research or primary care (n = 43 institutions), coding concentrations and mission statements. Subsequently, the authors conducted a targeted needs assessment via a student-led, institution-wide survey, eliciting learners' preferences for 10 "Pathways" (i.e., concentrations) and 30 "Topics" (i.e., potential content) augmenting core curricula at their institution. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and a capacity optimization algorithm characterized best institutional options for learner-focused Pathway development. The authors identified scholarly concentration programs at 32 of 43 medical schools (74%), comprising 199 distinct concentrations (mean concentrations per program: 6.2, mode: 5, range: 1-16). Thematic analysis identified 10 content domains; most common were "Global/Public Health" (30 institutions; 94%) and "Clinical/Translational Research" (26 institutions; 81%). The institutional needs assessment (n = 468 medical students; response rate 60% overall, 97% among first-year students) demonstrated myriad student preferences for Pathways and Topics. EFA of Topic preferences identified eight factors, systematically related to Pathway preferences, informing content development. Capacity modeling indicated that offering six Pathways could guarantee 95% of first-year students (162/171) their first- or second-choice Pathway. This study demonstrates a generalizable, data-driven approach to scholarly concentration program development that reflects student preferences and institutional strengths, while optimizing program diversity within capacity constraints.

Concentration dependent switch in the kinetic pathway of lysozyme fibrillation: Spectroscopic and microscopic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiran Kumar, E.; Prasad, Deepak Kumar; Prakash Prabhu, N.

2017-08-01

Formation of amyloid fibrils is found to be a general tendency of many proteins. Investigating the kinetic mechanisms and structural features of the intermediates and the final fibrillar state is essential to understand their role in amyloid diseases. Lysozyme, a notable model protein for amyloidogenic studies, readily formed fibrils in vitro at neutral pH in the presence of urea. It, however, showed two different kinetic pathways under varying urea concentrations when probed with thioflavin T (ThT) fluorescence. In 2 M urea, lysozyme followed a nucleation-dependent fibril formation pathway which was not altered by varying the protein concentration from 2 mg/ml to 8 mg/ml. In 4 M urea, the protein exhibited concentration dependent change in the mechanism. At lower protein concentrations, lysozyme formed fibrils without any detectable nuclei (nucleation-independent polymerization pathway). When the concentration of the protein was increased above 3 mg/ml, the protein followed nucleation-dependent polymerization pathway as observed in the case of 2 M urea condition. This was further verified using microscopic images of the fibrils. The kinetic parameters such as lag time, elongation rate, and fibrillation half-time, which were derived from ThT fluorescence changes, showed linear dependency against the initial protein concentration suggested that under the nucleation-dependent pathway conditions, the protein followed primary-nucleation mechanism without any significant secondary nucleation events. The results also suggested that the differences in the initial protein conformation might alter the mechanism of fibrillation; however, at the higher protein concentrations lysozyme shifted to nucleation-dependent pathway.

Identification of copy number variants in whole-genome data using Reference Coverage Profiles

PubMed Central

Glusman, Gustavo; Severson, Alissa; Dhankani, Varsha; Robinson, Max; Farrah, Terry; Mauldin, Denise E.; Stittrich, Anna B.; Ament, Seth A.; Roach, Jared C.; Brunkow, Mary E.; Bodian, Dale L.; Vockley, Joseph G.; Shmulevich, Ilya; Niederhuber, John E.; Hood, Leroy

2015-01-01

The identification of DNA copy numbers from short-read sequencing data remains a challenge for both technical and algorithmic reasons. The raw data for these analyses are measured in tens to hundreds of gigabytes per genome; transmitting, storing, and analyzing such large files is cumbersome, particularly for methods that analyze several samples simultaneously. We developed a very efficient representation of depth of coverage (150–1000× compression) that enables such analyses. Current methods for analyzing variants in whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data frequently miss copy number variants (CNVs), particularly hemizygous deletions in the 1–100 kb range. To fill this gap, we developed a method to identify CNVs in individual genomes, based on comparison to joint profiles pre-computed from a large set of genomes. We analyzed depth of coverage in over 6000 high quality (>40×) genomes. The depth of coverage has strong sequence-specific fluctuations only partially explained by global parameters like %GC. To account for these fluctuations, we constructed multi-genome profiles representing the observed or inferred diploid depth of coverage at each position along the genome. These Reference Coverage Profiles (RCPs) take into account the diverse technologies and pipeline versions used. Normalization of the scaled coverage to the RCP followed by hidden Markov model (HMM) segmentation enables efficient detection of CNVs and large deletions in individual genomes. Use of pre-computed multi-genome coverage profiles improves our ability to analyze each individual genome. We make available RCPs and tools for performing these analyses on personal genomes. We expect the increased sensitivity and specificity for individual genome analysis to be critical for achieving clinical-grade genome interpretation. PMID:25741365

Installation Restoration Program. Remedial Investigation Report: Minnesota Air National Guard Base Duluth International Airport, Duluth, Minnesota. Volume 7

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

Selection of Indicator Chemicals 6-36 6.2.2 Estimation of Exposure Point Concentrations or Emission Rates 6-38 6.2.2.1 Exposure Pathway Analysis 6-38...Exposure Point Concentrations or Emission Rates 6-50 j 6.3.2.1 Exposure Pathway Analysis 6-52 6.3.2.2 Exposure Point Concentrations 6-55 6.3.2.3...Exposure Point Concentrations or Emission Rates 6-62 6.4.2.1 Exposure Pathway Analysis 6-62 6.4.2.2 Exposure Point Concentrations 6-69 6.4.2.3

Specific Inhibition of the Cyanide-insensitive Respiratory Pathway in Plant Mitochondria by Hydroxamic Acids

PubMed Central

Schonbaum, Gregory R.; Bonner, Walter D.; Storey, Bayard T.; Bahr, James T.

1971-01-01

Hydroxamic acids, R-CONHOH, are inhibitors specific to the respiratory pathway through the alternate, cyanide-insensitive terminal oxidase of plant mitochondria. The nature of the R group in these compounds affects the concentration at which the hydroxamic acids are effective, but it appears that all hydroxamic acids inhibit if high enough concentrations are used. The benzhydroxamic acids are effective at relatively low concentrations; of these, the most effective are m-chlorobenzhydroxamic acid and m-iodobenzhydroxamic acid. The concentrations required for half-maximal inhibition of the alternate oxidase pathway in mung bean (Phaseolus aureus) mitochondria are 0.03 mm for m-chlorobenzhydroxamic acid and 0.02 mm for m-iodobenzhydroxamic acid. With skunk cabbage (Symplocarpus foetidus) mitochondria, the required concentrations are 0.16 for m-chlorobenzhydroxamic acid and 0.05 for m-iodobenzhydroxamic acid. At concentrations which inhibit completely the alternate oxidase pathway, these two compounds have no discernible effect on either the respiratory pathway through cytochrome oxidase, or on the energy coupling reactions of these mitochondria. These inhibitors make it possible to isolate the two respiratory pathways and study their mode of action separately. These inhibitors also enhance an electron paramagnetic resonance signal near g = 2 in anaerobic, submitochondrial particles from skunk cabbage, which appears to be specific to the alternate oxidase and thus provides a means for its assay. PMID:5543780

Hydrologic Responses to Projected Climate Change in Ecologically-Vulnerable Watersheds of the Gulf Coast, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, R. P.; Ficklin, D. L.; Knouft, J.

2017-12-01

Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the water cycle of the Gulf Coast watersheds in the United States, which contain some of the highest levels of biodiversity of all freshwater systems in North America. Understanding potential hydrologic responses to continued climate change in these watersheds is important for management of water resources and to sustain ecological diversity. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrologic processes and estimate the potential hydrological changes for the mid-21st century (2050s) and the late-21st century (2080s) in the Mobile River, Apalachicola River, and Suwannee River watersheds located in the Gulf Coast, USA. These estimates were based on downscaled future climate projections from 20 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Models were calibrated and validated using observed data from 58, 19, and 14 streamflow gauges in the Mobile River, Apalachicola River, and Suwannee River watersheds, respectively. Evaluation indices including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and refined index of agreement (dr) were used to assess model quality. The mean values derived during calibration (NSE=0.68, R2=0.77, and dr=0.73) and validation (NSE=0.70, R2=0.78, and dr=0.74) of all watersheds indicated that the models performed well at simulating monthly streamflow. Our simulation results indicated an overall increase in mean annual streamflow for all the watersheds with a maximum increase in discharge of 28.6% for the Suwannee River watershed for RCP 4.5 during the 2080s, which is associated with a 6.8% increase in precipitation during the same time period. We observed an overall warming (4.2oC) with an increase in future precipitation (3.8%) in all watersheds during the 2080s under the worst-case RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the historical time period. Despite an increase in future precipitation, surface runoff in the Suwannee River watershed was lower than might be expected due to a large portion of wetlands ( 28% of total area) acting as buffers to capture overland flows. These outcomes are expected to help in making better-informed decisions for future water resources and ecosystem management in the Gulf Coast region during the coming century.

Modeling Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecosystem Processes to Quantify Exposure to Climate Change in Two Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quackenbush, A.

2015-12-01

Urban land cover and associated impervious surface area is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next few decades across substantial portions of the United States. In combination with urban expansion, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to impact ecosystems through changes in productivity, disturbance and hydrological properties. In this study, we use the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System Biogeochemical Cycle (TOPS-BGC) model to explore the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrologic dynamics (snowmelt, runoff, and evapotranspiration) and vegetation carbon uptake (gross productivity). The model is driven using land cover predictions from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM) to quantify projected changes in impervious surface area, and climate projections from the 30 arc-second NASA Earth Exchange Downscaled Climate Projection (NEX-DCP30) dataset derived from the CMIP5 climate scenarios. We present the modeling approach and an analysis of the ecosystem impacts projected to occur in the US, with an emphasis on protected areas in the Great Northern and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). Under the ensemble average of the CMIP5 models and land cover change scenarios for both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, both LCCs are predicted to experience increases in maximum and minimum temperatures as well as annual average precipitation. In the Great Northern LCC, this is projected to lead to increased annual runoff, especially under RCP 8.5. Earlier melt of the winter snow pack and increased evapotranspiration, however, reduces summer streamflow and soil water content, leading to a net reduction in vegetation productivity across much of the Great Northern LCC, with stronger trends occurring under RCP 8.5. Increased runoff is also projected to occur in the Appalachian LCC under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. However, under RCP 4.5, the model predicts that the warmer wetter conditions will lead to increases in vegetation productivity across much of the Appalachian LCC, while under RCP 8.5, the effects of increased precipitation are not enough to keep up with increases in evapotranspiration, leading to projected reductions in vegetation productivity for this LCC by the end of this century.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.

2012-12-01

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change "commitment" of a range of radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible if atmospheric CO2 is left to evolve freely or is artificially restored to pre-industrial levels. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate significant surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.0-0.6 °C for RCP4.5 and 0.0-1.2 °C for RCP8.5, and the additional sea level rise is 0.1-1.0 m for RCP4.5 and 0.4-2.6 m for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions results in constant or slightly decreasing surface air temperature in all EMICs. Thermosteric sea level rise continues after elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with additional sea level rise between 2300 and 3000 of 0.0-0.5 m for RCP4.5 and 0.2-2.4 m for RCP8.5. The largest warming and sea level rise commitment are simulated for the case with constant year-2300 CO2 emissions. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100-1000 years does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level rise exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2, and requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Results of the climate change commitment and reversibility simulations differ widely among EMICs, both in the physical and biogeochemical response. Particularly large differences are identified in the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to atmospheric CO2 and climate, highlighting the need for improved understanding and representation of land carbon cycle processes in Earth System models.

Quantifying Changes in Los Angeles River Breakout Triggered by Sea Level Rise Using a Hydrodynamic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; Shakeri Majd, M.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Sadegh, M.; Vahedifard, F.

2017-12-01

Sea Level Rise (SLR) has been identified as a global phenomenon that will challenge coastal communities and infrastructures through escalating risk of erosion and subsidence, as well as elevating storm surge heights. Overall, SLR not only increases frequency of future coastal flooding in low-land coastal areas, but also changes flow dynamics in rivers connected to oceans. Changes in flow dynamics (e.g., peaks, flow intensities) can elevate water surface profile locally, leading to river breakout and flooding. Quantifying river breakout provides invaluable information to local authorities when it comes to SLR mitigation and adaptation efforts. Los Angeles River (LAR) which is located in southern part of California is protected with levee systems. The focus of this study is about 18 miles of the river, starting from Pacific Ocean to Downtown Los Angeles, which protects residence and major infrastructures. We use the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) to simulate flow and its interactions with coastal water levels. HEC-RAS is capable of simulating flow in one- and two-dimensional systems, resolving Diffusive Wave Equation and Shallow Water Equation, respectively. In this study, the hydraulic model consists of one- and two-dimensional models connected through the LAR's levee system. This approach enables us to identify the onset of river breakout location alongside the LAR. The inflow data incorporated into the model obtained from a gage records and represents a significant event occurred in February 2005. This model utilizes a detail terrain model with 0.3 m LiDAR data. In order to explore effects of SLR associated with future climate changes on LAR and its levee system, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP of 4.5 and 8.5) are considered. Based on our RCPs, 24 projected SLRs are computed for future years (2030, 2050, and 2100) for three different quantiles. Our simulation results show SLR, which varies from 0.05 to 2.8 m, causes backwater at the mouth of the river, at Pacific Ocean. Consequently, flow velocities and depth changes in channel, which results in changes in onset and location of the river breakout. Our findings emphasize needs for incorporating effects of SLR in hydraulic models in order to support mitigation and adaption efforts.

Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

2014-12-01

Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand reveals that the magnitudes are more in 2070 to 2100 of RCP8.5. Inter-model comparison show that there are large more uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections.

Projections of Rainfall and Surface Temperature from CMIP5 Models under RCP4.5 and 8.5 over BIMSTEC Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charan Pattnayak, Kanhu; Kar, Sarat Chandra; Kumari Pattnayak, Rashmita

2015-04-01

Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand reveals that the magnitudes are more in 2070 to 2100 of RCP8.5. Inter-model comparison show that there are large more uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections.

Historical and projected changes in the Southern Hemisphere Sub-tropical Jet during winter from the CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Ahmad Mazuki, Muhammad Yunus; Turner, John; Samah, Azizan Abu

2017-01-01

We present projected changes in the speed and meridional location of the Subtropical Jet (STJ) during winter using output of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We use the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset to evaluate the historical simulations of the STJ by 18 of the CMIP5 models for the period 1979-2012. Based on the climatology of the STJ from ERA-Interim, we selected the area of study as 70°E-290°E and 20°S-40°S, which is over the Indian and Southern Pacific Oceans, and 300-100 hPa to reduce altitude-related bias. An assessment of the ability of the CMIP5 models in simulating ENSO effects on the jet stream were carried out using standardized zonal wind anomalies at 300-100 hPa. Results show that 47 % of the CMIP5 models used in this study were able to simulate ENSO impacts realistically. In addition, it is more difficult for the models to reproduce the observed intensity of ENSO impacts than the patterns. The historical simulations of the CMIP5 models show a wide range of trends in meridional movement and jet strength, with a multi-model mean of 0.04° decade-1 equatorward and 0.42 ms-1 decade-1 respectively. In contrast to the ERA-Interim analysis, 94 % of the CMIP5 models show a strengthening of the jet in the historical runs. Variability of the jet strength is significantly (5 %) linked to the sea surface temperature changes over the eastern tropical Pacific. The CMIP5 model projections with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used for analysis of changes of the STJ for the period 2011-2099. Based on the RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario the multi-model mean trend of the 18 CMIP5 models project a statistically significant (5 % level) increase in jet strength by the end of the century of 0.29 ms-1 decade-1 (0.60 ms-1 decade-1). Also, the mean meridional location of the jet is projected to shift poleward by 0.006° decade-1 (0.042° decade-1) in 2099 during winter, with the only significant (5 %) trend being with RCP 8.5.

Impacts of changes in groundwater recharge on the isotopic composition and geochemistry of seasonally ice-covered lakes: insights for sustainable management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnoux, Marie; Barbecot, Florent; Gibert-Brunet, Elisabeth; Gibson, John; Noret, Aurélie

2017-11-01

Lakes are under increasing pressure due to widespread anthropogenic impacts related to rapid development and population growth. Accordingly, many lakes are currently undergoing a systematic decline in water quality. Recent studies have highlighted that global warming and the subsequent changes in water use may further exacerbate eutrophication in lakes. Lake evolution depends strongly on hydrologic balance, and therefore on groundwater connectivity. Groundwater also influences the sensitivity of lacustrine ecosystems to climate and environmental changes, and governs their resilience. Improved characterization of groundwater exchange with lakes is needed today for lake preservation, lake restoration, and sustainable management of lake water quality into the future. In this context, the aim of the present paper is to determine if the future evolution of the climate, the population, and the recharge could modify the geochemistry of lakes (mainly isotopic signature and quality via phosphorous load) and if the isotopic monitoring of lakes could be an efficient tool to highlight the variability of the water budget and quality. Small groundwater-connected lakes were chosen to simulate changes in water balance and water quality expected under future climate change scenarios, namely representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Contemporary baseline conditions, including isotope mass balance and geochemical characteristics, were determined through an intensive field-based research program prior to the simulations. Results highlight that future lake geochemistry and isotopic composition trends will depend on four main parameters: location (and therefore climate conditions), lake catchment size (which impacts the intensity of the flux change), lake volume (which impacts the range of variation), and lake G index (i.e., the percentage of groundwater that makes up total lake inflows), the latter being the dominant control on water balance conditions, as revealed by the sensitivity of lake isotopic composition. Based on these model simulations, stable isotopes appear to be especially useful for detecting changes in recharge to lakes with a G index of between 50 and 80 %, but response is non-linear. Simulated monthly trends reveal that evolution of annual lake isotopic composition can be dampened by opposing monthly recharge fluctuations. It is also shown that changes in water quality in groundwater-connected lakes depend significantly on lake location and on the intensity of recharge change.

Molecular characterization of the rhesus rhadinovirus (RRV) ORF4 gene and the RRV complement control protein it encodes.

PubMed

Mark, Linda; Spiller, O Brad; Okroj, Marcin; Chanas, Simon; Aitken, Jim A; Wong, Scott W; Damania, Blossom; Blom, Anna M; Blackbourn, David J

2007-04-01

The diversity of viral strategies to modulate complement activation indicates that this component of the immune system has significant antiviral potential. One example is the Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) complement control protein (KCP), which inhibits progression of the complement cascade. Rhesus rhadinovirus (RRV), like KSHV, is a member of the subfamily Gammaherpesvirinae and currently provides the only in vivo model of KSHV pathobiology in primates. In the present study, we characterized the KCP homologue encoded by RRV, RRV complement control protein (RCP). Two strains of RRV have been sequenced to date (H26-95 and 17577), and the RCPs they encode differ substantially in structure: RCP from strain H26-95 has four complement control protein (CCP) domains, whereas RCP from strain 17577 has eight CCP domains. Transcriptional analyses of the RCP gene (ORF4, referred to herein as RCP) in infected rhesus macaque fibroblasts mapped the ends of the transcripts of both strains. They revealed that H26-95 encodes a full-length, unspliced RCP transcript, while 17577 RCP generates a full-length unspliced mRNA and two alternatively spliced transcripts. Western blotting confirmed that infected cells express RCP, and immune electron microscopy disclosed this protein on the surface of RRV virions. Functional studies of RCP encoded by both RRV strains revealed their ability to suppress complement activation by the classical (antibody-mediated) pathway. These data provide the foundation for studies into the biological significance of gammaherpesvirus complement regulatory proteins in a tractable, non-human primate model.

Molecular Characterization of the Rhesus Rhadinovirus (RRV) ORF4 Gene and the RRV Complement Control Protein It Encodes▿

PubMed Central

Mark, Linda; Spiller, O. Brad; Okroj, Marcin; Chanas, Simon; Aitken, Jim A.; Wong, Scott W.; Damania, Blossom; Blom, Anna M.; Blackbourn, David J.

2007-01-01

The diversity of viral strategies to modulate complement activation indicates that this component of the immune system has significant antiviral potential. One example is the Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) complement control protein (KCP), which inhibits progression of the complement cascade. Rhesus rhadinovirus (RRV), like KSHV, is a member of the subfamily Gammaherpesvirinae and currently provides the only in vivo model of KSHV pathobiology in primates. In the present study, we characterized the KCP homologue encoded by RRV, RRV complement control protein (RCP). Two strains of RRV have been sequenced to date (H26-95 and 17577), and the RCPs they encode differ substantially in structure: RCP from strain H26-95 has four complement control protein (CCP) domains, whereas RCP from strain 17577 has eight CCP domains. Transcriptional analyses of the RCP gene (ORF4, referred to herein as RCP) in infected rhesus macaque fibroblasts mapped the ends of the transcripts of both strains. They revealed that H26-95 encodes a full-length, unspliced RCP transcript, while 17577 RCP generates a full-length unspliced mRNA and two alternatively spliced transcripts. Western blotting confirmed that infected cells express RCP, and immune electron microscopy disclosed this protein on the surface of RRV virions. Functional studies of RCP encoded by both RRV strains revealed their ability to suppress complement activation by the classical (antibody-mediated) pathway. These data provide the foundation for studies into the biological significance of gammaherpesvirus complement regulatory proteins in a tractable, non-human primate model. PMID:17287274

The international atom: evolution of radiation control programs.

PubMed

Bradley, F J

2002-07-01

Under the Atoms for Peace program, Turkey received a one MWt swimming pool reactor in 1962 that initiated a health physics program for the reactor and a Radiation Control Program (RCP) for the country's use of ionizing radiation. Today, over 13,000 radiation workers, concentrated in the medical field, provide improved medical care with 6,200 x-ray units, including 494 CAT scanners, 222 radioimmunoassay (RIA) labs and 42 radiotherapy centers. Industry has a large stake in the safe use of ionizing radiation with over 1,200 x-ray and gamma radiography and fluoroscopic units, 2,500 gauges in automated process control and five irradiators. A 48-person RCP staff oversees this expanded radiation use. One incident involving a spent 3.3 TBq (88 Ci) 60Co source resulted in 10 overexposures but no fatalities. Taiwan received a 1.6 MWt swimming pool reactor in 1961 and rapidly applied nuclear technology to the medical and industrial fields. Today, there are approximately 24,000 licensed radiation workers in nuclear power field, industry, medicine and academia. Four BWRs and two PWRs supply about 25% of the island's electrical power needs. One traumatic event galvanized the RCP when an undetermined amount of 60Co was accidentally incorporated into reinforcing bars, which in turn were incorporated into residential and commercial buildings. Public exposures were estimated to range up to 15 mSv (1.3 rem) per annum. There were no reported ill effects, except possibly psychological, to date. The RCP now has instituted stringent control measures to ensure radiation-free dwellings and work places. Albania's RCP is described as it evolved since 1972. Regulations were promulgated which followed the IAEA Basic Safety Standards of that era. With 525 licenses and 600 radiation workers, the problem was not in the regulations per se but in their enforcement. The IAEA helped to upgrade the RCP as the economy evolved from one that was centrally planned economy to a free market economy. As this transition takes place, public radiation exposures in the medical field will continue to be high until the old x-ray equipment is phased out. A small conscientious health physics staff works with limited resources to keep radiation exposures at acceptable levels. These three country RCPs, as they have evolved, have some commonality. Today, all radiation installations are licensed, both for radioactive material and x-ray equipment. Radiation workers are individually licensed or registered. All RCPs have, or are striving to have, their radiation regulations conform to ICRP 60 recommendations as spelled out in the Basic Safety Standard (1996). Finally, all three countries have as yet to find a permanent solution for their radioactive waste.

Relative contributions of four exposure pathways to influenza infection risk.

PubMed

Nicas, Mark; Jones, Rachael M

2009-09-01

The relative contribution of four influenza virus exposure pathways-(1) virus-contaminated hand contact with facial membranes, (2) inhalation of respirable cough particles, (3) inhalation of inspirable cough particles, and (4) spray of cough droplets onto facial membranes-must be quantified to determine the potential efficacy of nonpharmaceutical interventions of transmission. We used a mathematical model to estimate the relative contributions of the four pathways to infection risk in the context of a person attending a bed-ridden family member ill with influenza. Considering the uncertainties in the sparse human subject influenza dose-response data, we assumed alternative ratios of 3,200:1 and 1:1 for the infectivity of inhaled respirable virus to intranasally instilled virus. For the 3,200:1 ratio, pathways (1), (2), and (4) contribute substantially to influenza risk: at a virus saliva concentration of 10(6) mL(-1), pathways (1), (2), (3), and (4) contribute, respectively, 31%, 17%, 0.52%, and 52% of the infection risk. With increasing virus concentrations, pathway (2) increases in importance, while pathway (4) decreases in importance. In contrast, for the 1:1 infectivity ratio, pathway (1) is the most important overall: at a virus saliva concentration of 10(6) mL(-1), pathways (1), (2), (3), and (4) contribute, respectively, 93%, 0.037%, 3.3%, and 3.7% of the infection risk. With increasing virus concentrations, pathway (3) increases in importance, while pathway (4) decreases in importance. Given the sparse knowledge concerning influenza dose and infectivity via different exposure pathways, nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza should simultaneously address potential exposure via hand contact to the face, inhalation, and droplet spray.

Modulation of Ergot Alkaloids in a Grass-Endophyte Symbiosis by Alteration of mRNA Concentrations of an Ergot Alkaloid Synthesis Gene.

PubMed

Mulinti, Prashanthi; Florea, Simona; Schardl, Christopher L; Panaccione, Daniel G

2016-06-22

The profile of ergot alkaloids in perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) containing the endophytic fungus Epichloë typhina × festucae includes high concentrations of the early pathway metabolites ergotryptamine and chanoclavine-I in addition to the pathway end-product ergovaline. Because these alkaloids differ in activity, we investigated strategies to alter their relative concentrations. An RNAi-based approach reduced the concentration of mRNA from the gene easA, which encodes an enzyme required for a ring closure that separates ergotryptamine and chanoclavine-I from ergovaline. Lower easA mRNA concentrations correlated with lower concentrations of ergovaline and higher concentrations of ergotryptamine and chanoclavine-I. Overexpression of easA led to higher concentrations of ergovaline in leaf blades but not in pseudostems; concentrations of the early pathway metabolites were not altered in overexpression strains. The data indicate that altering the concentration of mRNA from a single gene can change alkaloid flux, but the magnitude of the change was limited and variable.

Vitamin D pathway gene polymorphisms affecting daclatasvir plasma concentration at 2 weeks and 1 month of therapy.

PubMed

Cusato, Jessica; Nicolò, Amedeo De; Boglione, Lucio; Favata, Fabio; Ariaudo, Alessandra; Pinna, Simone Mornese; Carcieri, Chiara; Guido, Federica; Cariti, Giuseppe; Perri, Giovanni Di; D'Avolio, Antonio

2018-06-01

Vitamin D (VD) influences genetic expression through its receptor (VDR). VD pathway gene polymorphisms seem to influence antiviral drug pharmacokinetics and therapeutic outcome/toxicity. We investigated the association between daclatasvir (DCV) plasma concentrations and genetic variants (SNPs) associated with the VD pathway. Chronic hepatitis C patients treated with DCV from 2014 to 2016 were included. Genotypes were assessed through real-time PCR and plasma concentrations through liquid chromatography. A total of 52 patients were analyzed. DCV levels were influenced by CYP24A1 rs2248359T>C polymorphism at 2 weeks and VDR Cdx2 A>G at 1 month of treatment. Linear regression analysis showed baseline BMI, alanine aminotransferase and hematocrit as significant predictors of DCV concentrations at 2 weeks, BMI and hematocrit at baseline, VDR Cdx2 AG/GG and FokI TC/CC at 1 month. These results showed a possible role of VD pathway gene polymorphisms in influencing DCV plasma concentrations, but further studies are required.

On the deduction of chemical reaction pathways from measurements of time series of concentrations.

PubMed

Samoilov, Michael; Arkin, Adam; Ross, John

2001-03-01

We discuss the deduction of reaction pathways in complex chemical systems from measurements of time series of chemical concentrations of reacting species. First we review a technique called correlation metric construction (CMC) and show the construction of a reaction pathway from measurements on a part of glycolysis. Then we present two new improved methods for the analysis of time series of concentrations, entropy metric construction (EMC), and entropy reduction method (ERM), and illustrate (EMC) with calculations on a model reaction system. (c) 2001 American Institute of Physics.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

2015-04-01

Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their vulnerability. Based on the projection models for the area, average temperature in Jordan is projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.6°C by 2050. These upward temperature trends are projected to continue beyond 2050. Projections for precipitation trends are projected to decrease by 16% by the year 2050. Evaporation is likely to increase due to higher temperatures. This is likely to increase the incidence of drought potential since precipitation is projected to decrease. It is concluded that the Overall vulnerability of agriculture to climate change in Jordan is high, where impacts such as drought and increased temperatures and decreased precipitation will be more pronounced. Major implications on rain fed agriculture are possible shorter growing season, increasing moisture and heat stress to field and horticultural crops and eventually low income and food insecurity. There were different impacts among studied communities, which is related to the: economic capability, local knowledge, physical infrastructure, institutional capacity, modern technology used, age group of farmers and diversification of their income.

Multiple oxygen entry pathways in globin proteins revealed by intrinsic pathway identification method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takayanagi, Masayoshi; Kurisaki, Ikuo; Nagaoka, Masataka

2015-12-01

Each subunit of human hemoglobin (HbA) stores an oxygen molecule (O2) in the binding site (BS) cavity near the heme group. The BS is buried in the interior of the subunit so that there is a debate over the O2 entry pathways from solvent to the BS; histidine gate or multiple pathways. To elucidate the O2 entry pathways, we executed ensemble molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of T-state tetramer HbA in high concentration O2 solvent to simulate spontaneous O2 entry from solvent into the BS. By analyzing 128 independent 8 ns MD trajectories by intrinsic pathway identification by clustering (IPIC) method, we found 141 and 425 O2 entry events into the BS of the α and β subunits, respectively. In both subunits, we found that multiple O2 entry pathways through inside cavities play a significant role for O2 entry process of HbA. The rate constants of O2 entry estimated from the MD trajectories correspond to the experimentally observed values. In addition, by analyzing monomer myoglobin, we verified that the high O2 concentration condition can reproduce the ratios of each multiple pathway in the one-tenth lower O2 concentration condition. These indicate the validity of the multiple pathways obtained in our MD simulations.

Pathway-Based Concentration Response Profiles from Toxicogenomics Data

EPA Science Inventory

Microarray analysis of gene expression of in vitro systems could be a powerful tool for assessing chemical hazard. Differentially expressed genes specific to cells, chemicals, and concentrations can be organized into molecular pathways that inform mode of action. An important par...

Modeling the optimal central carbon metabolic pathways under feedback inhibition using flux balance analysis.

PubMed

De, Rajat K; Tomar, Namrata

2012-12-01

Metabolism is a complex process for energy production for cellular activity. It consists of a cascade of reactions that form a highly branched network in which the product of one reaction is the reactant of the next reaction. Metabolic pathways efficiently produce maximal amount of biomass while maintaining a steady-state behavior. The steady-state activity of such biochemical pathways necessarily incorporates feedback inhibition of the enzymes. This observation motivates us to incorporate feedback inhibition for modeling the optimal activity of metabolic pathways using flux balance analysis (FBA). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology on a synthetic pathway with and without feedback inhibition. Similarly, for the first time, the Central Carbon Metabolic (CCM) pathways of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens have been modeled and compared based on the above understanding. The optimal pathway, which maximizes the amount of the target product(s), is selected from all those obtained by the proposed method. For this, we have observed the concentration of the product inhibited enzymes of CCM pathway and its influence on its corresponding metabolite/substrate. We have also studied the concentration of the enzymes which are responsible for the synthesis of target products. We further hypothesize that an optimal pathway would opt for higher flux rate reactions. In light of these observations, we can say that an optimal pathway should have lower enzyme concentration and higher flux rates. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method by comparing it with the extreme pathway analysis.

In Situ Detection and Quantification of AR-V7, AR-FL, PSA, and KRAS Point Mutations in Circulating Tumor Cells.

PubMed

El-Heliebi, Amin; Hille, Claudia; Laxman, Navya; Svedlund, Jessica; Haudum, Christoph; Ercan, Erkan; Kroneis, Thomas; Chen, Shukun; Smolle, Maria; Rossmann, Christopher; Krzywkowski, Tomasz; Ahlford, Annika; Darai, Evangelia; von Amsberg, Gunhild; Alsdorf, Winfried; König, Frank; Löhr, Matthias; de Kruijff, Inge; Riethdorf, Sabine; Gorges, Tobias M; Pantel, Klaus; Bauernhofer, Thomas; Nilsson, Mats; Sedlmayr, Peter

2018-03-01

Liquid biopsies can be used in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) to detect androgen receptor splice variant 7 (AR-V7), a splicing product of the androgen receptor. Patients with AR-V7-positive circulating tumor cells (CTCs) have greater benefit of taxane chemotherapy compared with novel hormonal therapies, indicating a treatment-selection biomarker. Likewise, in those with pancreatic cancer (PaCa), KRAS mutations act as prognostic biomarkers. Thus, there is an urgent need for technology investigating the expression and mutation status of CTCs. Here, we report an approach that adds AR-V7 or KRAS status to CTC enumeration, compatible with multiple CTC-isolation platforms. We studied 3 independent CTC-isolation devices (CellCollector, Parsortix, CellSearch) for the evaluation of AR-V7 or KRAS status of CTCs with in situ padlock probe technology. Padlock probes allow highly specific detection and visualization of transcripts on a cellular level. We applied padlock probes for detecting AR-V7, androgen receptor full length (AR-FL), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in CRPC and KRAS wild-type (wt) and mutant (mut) transcripts in PaCa in CTCs from 46 patients. In situ analysis showed that 71% (22 of 31) of CRPC patients had detectable AR-V7 expression ranging from low to high expression [1-76 rolling circle products (RCPs)/CTC]. In PaCa patients, 40% (6 of 15) had KRAS mut expressing CTCs with 1 to 8 RCPs/CTC. In situ padlock probe analysis revealed CTCs with no detectable cytokeratin expression but positivity for AR-V7 or KRAS mut transcripts. Padlock probe technology enables quantification of AR-V7, AR-FL, PSA, and KRAS mut/wt transcripts in CTCs. The technology is easily applicable in routine laboratories and compatible with multiple CTC-isolation devices. © 2017 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Dynamic imaging of adaptive stress response pathway activation for prediction of drug induced liver injury.

PubMed

Wink, Steven; Hiemstra, Steven W; Huppelschoten, Suzanne; Klip, Janna E; van de Water, Bob

2018-05-01

Drug-induced liver injury remains a concern during drug treatment and development. There is an urgent need for improved mechanistic understanding and prediction of DILI liabilities using in vitro approaches. We have established and characterized a panel of liver cell models containing mechanism-based fluorescent protein toxicity pathway reporters to quantitatively assess the dynamics of cellular stress response pathway activation at the single cell level using automated live cell imaging. We have systematically evaluated the application of four key adaptive stress pathway reporters for the prediction of DILI liability: SRXN1-GFP (oxidative stress), CHOP-GFP (ER stress/UPR response), p21 (p53-mediated DNA damage-related response) and ICAM1 (NF-κB-mediated inflammatory signaling). 118 FDA-labeled drugs in five human exposure relevant concentrations were evaluated for reporter activation using live cell confocal imaging. Quantitative data analysis revealed activation of single or multiple reporters by most drugs in a concentration and time dependent manner. Hierarchical clustering of time course dynamics and refined single cell analysis allowed the allusion of key events in DILI liability. Concentration response modeling was performed to calculate benchmark concentrations (BMCs). Extracted temporal dynamic parameters and BMCs were used to assess the predictive power of sub-lethal adaptive stress pathway activation. Although cellular adaptive responses were activated by non-DILI and severe-DILI compounds alike, dynamic behavior and lower BMCs of pathway activation were sufficiently distinct between these compound classes. The high-level detailed temporal- and concentration-dependent evaluation of the dynamics of adaptive stress pathway activation adds to the overall understanding and prediction of drug-induced liver liabilities.

Encoding of temporal signals by the TGF-β pathway and implications for embryonic patterning

PubMed Central

Sorre, Benoit; Warmflash, Aryeh; Brivanlou, Ali H.; Siggia, Eric D.

2014-01-01

Summary Genetics and biochemistry have defined the components and wiring of the signaling pathways that pattern the embryo. Among them, the TGF-β pathway has the potential to behave as a morphogen: invitro experiments have clearly established that it can dictate cell fate in a concentration dependent manner. How morphogens convey positional information in a developing embryo, where signal levels are changing with time, is less understood. Using integrated microfluidic cell culture and time-lapse microscopy, we demonstrate here that the speed of ligand presentation has a key and previously unexpected influence on TGF-β signaling outcomes. The response to a TGF-β concentration step is transient and adaptive, slowly increasing the ligand concentration diminishes the response and well-spaced pulses of ligand combine additively resulting in greater pathway output than with constant stimulation. Our results suggest that in an embryonic context, the speed of change of ligand concentration is an instructive signal for patterning. PMID:25065773

Bi-phasic regulation of glycogen content in astrocytes via Cav-1/PTEN/PI3K/AKT/GSK-3β pathway by fluoxetine.

PubMed

Bai, Qiufang; Song, Dan; Gu, Li; Verkhratsky, Alexei; Peng, Liang

2017-04-01

Here, we present the data indicating that chronic treatment with fluoxetine regulates Cav-1/PTEN/PI3K/AKT/GSK-3β signalling pathway and glycogen content in primary cultures of astrocytes with bi-phasic concentration dependence. At lower concentrations, fluoxetine downregulates gene expression of Cav-1, decreases membrane content of PTEN, increases activity of PI3K/AKT, and elevates GSK-3β phosphorylation thus suppressing its activity. At higher concentrations, fluoxetine acts in an inverse fashion. As expected, fluoxetine at lower concentrations increased while at higher concentrations decreased glycogen content in astrocytes. Our findings indicate that bi-phasic regulation of glycogen content via Cav-1/PTEN/PI3K/AKT/GSK-3β pathway by fluoxetine may be responsible for both therapeutic and side effects of the drug.

A density functional theory study of the decomposition mechanism of nitroglycerin.

PubMed

Pei, Liguan; Dong, Kehai; Tang, Yanhui; Zhang, Bo; Yu, Chang; Li, Wenzuo

2017-08-21

The detailed decomposition mechanism of nitroglycerin (NG) in the gas phase was studied by examining reaction pathways using density functional theory (DFT) and canonical variational transition state theory combined with a small-curvature tunneling correction (CVT/SCT). The mechanism of NG autocatalytic decomposition was investigated at the B3LYP/6-31G(d,p) level of theory. Five possible decomposition pathways involving NG were identified and the rate constants for the pathways at temperatures ranging from 200 to 1000 K were calculated using CVT/SCT. There was found to be a lower energy barrier to the β-H abstraction reaction than to the α-H abstraction reaction during the initial step in the autocatalytic decomposition of NG. The decomposition pathways for CHOCOCHONO 2 (a product obtained following the abstraction of three H atoms from NG by NO 2 ) include O-NO 2 cleavage or isomer production, meaning that the autocatalytic decomposition of NG has two reaction pathways, both of which are exothermic. The rate constants for these two reaction pathways are greater than the rate constants for the three pathways corresponding to unimolecular NG decomposition. The overall process of NG decomposition can be divided into two stages based on the NO 2 concentration, which affects the decomposition products and reactions. In the first stage, the reaction pathway corresponding to O-NO 2 cleavage is the main pathway, but the rates of the two autocatalytic decomposition pathways increase with increasing NO 2 concentration. However, when a threshold NO 2 concentration is reached, the NG decomposition process enters its second stage, with the two pathways for NG autocatalytic decomposition becoming the main and secondary reaction pathways.

Phenylalanine and tyrosine levels are rate-limiting factors in production of health promoting metabolites in Vitis vinifera cv. Gamay Red cell suspension

PubMed Central

Manela, Neta; Oliva, Moran; Ovadia, Rinat; Sikron-Persi, Noga; Ayenew, Biruk; Fait, Aaron; Galili, Gad; Perl, Avichai; Weiss, David; Oren-Shamir, Michal

2015-01-01

Environmental stresses such as high light intensity and temperature cause induction of the shikimate pathway, aromatic amino acids (AAA) pathways, and of pathways downstream from AAAs. The induction leads to production of specialized metabolites that protect the cells from oxidative damage. The regulation of the diverse AAA derived pathways is still not well understood. To gain insight on that regulation, we increased AAA production in red grape Vitis vinifera cv. Gamay Red cell suspension, without inducing external stress on the cells, and characterized the metabolic effect of this induction. Increased AAA production was achieved by expressing a feedback-insensitive bacterial form of 3-deoxy- D-arabino-heptulosonate 7-phosphate synthase enzyme (AroG*) of the shikimate pathway under a constitutive promoter. The presence of AroG* protein led to elevated levels of primary metabolites in the shikimate and AAA pathways including phenylalanine and tyrosine, and to a dramatic increase in phenylpropanoids. The AroG* transformed lines accumulated up to 20 and 150 fold higher levels of resveratrol and dihydroquercetin, respectively. Quercetin, formed from dihydroquercetin, and resveratrol, are health promoting metabolites that are induced due to environmental stresses. Testing the expression level of key genes along the stilbenoids, benzenoids, and phenylpropanoid pathways showed that transcription was not affected by AroG*. This suggests that concentrations of AAAs, and of phenylalanine in particular, are rate-limiting in production of these metabolites. In contrast, increased phenylalanine production did not lead to elevated concentrations of anthocyanins, even though they are also phenylpropanoid metabolites. This suggests a control mechanism of this pathway that is independent of AAA concentration. Interestingly, total anthocyanin concentrations were slightly lower in AroG* cells, and the relative frequencies of the different anthocyanins changed as well. PMID:26236327

Phenylalanine and tyrosine levels are rate-limiting factors in production of health promoting metabolites in Vitis vinifera cv. Gamay Red cell suspension.

PubMed

Manela, Neta; Oliva, Moran; Ovadia, Rinat; Sikron-Persi, Noga; Ayenew, Biruk; Fait, Aaron; Galili, Gad; Perl, Avichai; Weiss, David; Oren-Shamir, Michal

2015-01-01

Environmental stresses such as high light intensity and temperature cause induction of the shikimate pathway, aromatic amino acids (AAA) pathways, and of pathways downstream from AAAs. The induction leads to production of specialized metabolites that protect the cells from oxidative damage. The regulation of the diverse AAA derived pathways is still not well understood. To gain insight on that regulation, we increased AAA production in red grape Vitis vinifera cv. Gamay Red cell suspension, without inducing external stress on the cells, and characterized the metabolic effect of this induction. Increased AAA production was achieved by expressing a feedback-insensitive bacterial form of 3-deoxy- D-arabino-heptulosonate 7-phosphate synthase enzyme (AroG (*)) of the shikimate pathway under a constitutive promoter. The presence of AroG(*) protein led to elevated levels of primary metabolites in the shikimate and AAA pathways including phenylalanine and tyrosine, and to a dramatic increase in phenylpropanoids. The AroG (*) transformed lines accumulated up to 20 and 150 fold higher levels of resveratrol and dihydroquercetin, respectively. Quercetin, formed from dihydroquercetin, and resveratrol, are health promoting metabolites that are induced due to environmental stresses. Testing the expression level of key genes along the stilbenoids, benzenoids, and phenylpropanoid pathways showed that transcription was not affected by AroG (*). This suggests that concentrations of AAAs, and of phenylalanine in particular, are rate-limiting in production of these metabolites. In contrast, increased phenylalanine production did not lead to elevated concentrations of anthocyanins, even though they are also phenylpropanoid metabolites. This suggests a control mechanism of this pathway that is independent of AAA concentration. Interestingly, total anthocyanin concentrations were slightly lower in AroG(*) cells, and the relative frequencies of the different anthocyanins changed as well.

Relative Contributions of Agricultural Drift, Para-Occupational, and Residential Use Exposure Pathways to House Dust Pesticide Concentrations: Meta-Regression of Published Data

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Increased pesticide concentrations in house dust in agricultural areas have been attributed to several exposure pathways, including agricultural drift, para-occupational, and residential use. Objective: To guide future exposure assessment efforts, we quantified rel...

The mechanism of zinc uptake by cultured rat liver cells.

PubMed Central

Taylor, J A; Simons, T J

1994-01-01

1. The initial rate of 65Zn uptake into cultured rat hepatocytes has been measured over a range of Zn2+ concentrations from 3 x 10(-10) M to 5 x 10(-6) M. Histidine and albumin were used to buffer Zn2+ ions at concentrations below 1 x 10(-6) M. 2. The results suggest there are two mechanisms for Zn2+ uptake; a high-affinity, saturable pathway, with a maximum velocity (Vmax) of 20-30 pmol (mg protein)-1 min-1 and a Michaelis-Menten constant (Km) of about 2 x 10(-9) M Zn2+ (with histidine), and a low-affinity, linear pathway, that only makes a significant contribution to Zn2+ uptake at Zn2+ concentrations above 1 x 10(-6) M. 3. Transport via the high-affinity pathway is dependent on the concentration of Zn2+ ions and not on the concentrations of Zn(2+)-ligand complexes, suggesting that Zn2+ is the transported species. 4. The affinity of the saturable pathway for Zn2+ is slightly lower in the presence of albumin, with a Km of about 1.3 x 10(-8) M. The reason for this is uncertain. PMID:8014898

Agricultural response functions to changes in carbon, temperature, and water based on the C3MP data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, A.; Ruane, A. C.; Phillips, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Clarke, L.

2017-12-01

Agricultural yields vary depending on temperature, precipitation/irrigation conditions, fertilizer application, and CO2 concentration. The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), conducted as a component of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), organized a sensitivity experiments across carbon-temperature-water (CTW) space across 1100 management conditions in 50+ countries, sampling 15 crop species and 20 crop models. Such coordinated sensitivity tests allow for the building of emulators of yield response to changes in CTW values, allowing rapid estimation of yield changes from the types of climate changes projected by the climate modeling community. The resulting emulator may be used to supply agricultural responses to climate change in any user-defined scenario, rather than the restriction to the RCPs in many past works. We present the resulting emulators built from the C3MP output data set for use in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model that allows for the co-evolution of socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and agricultural sector ramifications. C3MP-based emulators may be of use in designing agricultural impact studies in other IAMs, and we place them in the context of past crop modeling efforts, including the Challinor et al. Meta-analysis, the AgMIP Wheat team results, the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) fast-track modeling results, and the MACSUR impact response surface results.

Integrating Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

High throughput toxicity testing (HTT) holds the promise of providing data for tens of thousands of chemicals that currently have no data due to the cost and time required for animal testing. Interpretation of these results require information linking the perturbations seen in vitro with adverse outcomes in vivo and requires knowledge of how estimated exposure to the chemicals compare to the in vitro concentrations that show an effect. This abstract discusses how Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) can be used to link HTT with adverse outcomes of regulatory significance and how Aggregate Exposure Pathways (AEPs) can connect concentrations of environment stressors at a source with an expected target site concentration designed to provide exposure estimates that are comparable to concentrations identified in HTT. Presentation at the ICCA-LRI and JRC Workshop: Fit-For-Purpose Exposure Assessment For Risk-Based Decision Making

Effect of climate change on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcinkowski, Paweł; Piniewski, Mikołaj

2018-04-01

Climate change and projected temperature increase is recognised to have significant impact on agricultural production and crop phenology. This study evaluated the climate change impact on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in the boundaries of two largest catchments in Poland - the Vistula and the Odra. For this purpose, an agro-hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool has been used, driven by climate forcing data provided within the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain experiment projected to the year 2100 under two representative concentration pathways: 4.5 and 8.5. The projected warmer climate significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and harvest dates. The rate of acceleration was dependent on the time horizon and representative concentration pathways scenario. In general, the rate of sowing/harvest advance was accelerating in time and, also from representative concentration pathways 4.5 to 8.5, reaching 23 days for spring barley and 30 days for maize (ensemble mean for the far future under representative concentration pathways 8.5).

Identifying pathways and processes affecting nitrate and orthophosphate inputs to streams in agricultural watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tesoriero, A.J.; Duff, J.H.; Wolock, D.M.; Spahr, N.E.; Almendinger, J.E.

2009-01-01

Understanding nutrient pathways to streams will improve nutrient management strategies and estimates of the time lag between when changes in land use practices occur and when water quality effects that result from these changes are observed. Nitrate and orthophosphate (OP) concentrations in several environmental compartments were examined in watersheds having a range of base flow index (BFI) values across the continental United States to determine the dominant pathways for water and nutrient inputs to streams. Estimates of the proportion of stream nitrate that was derived from groundwater increased as BFI increased. Nitrate concentration gradients between groundwater and surface water further supported the groundwater source of nitrate in these high BFI streams. However, nitrate concentrations in stream-bed pore water in all settings were typically lower than stream or upland groundwater concentrations, suggesting that nitrate discharge to streams was not uniform through the bed. Rather, preferential pathways (e.g., springs, seeps) may allow high nitrate groundwater to bypass sites of high biogeochemical transformation. Rapid pathway compartments (e.g., overland flow, tile drains) had OP concentrations that were typically higher than in streams and were important OP conveyers in most of these watersheds. In contrast to nitrate, the proportion of stream OP that is derived from ground water did not systematically increase as BFI increased. While typically not the dominant source of OP, groundwater discharge was an important pathway of OP transport to streams when BFI values were very high and when geochemical conditions favored OP mobility in groundwater. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Comparison of pathway and center of gravity of the calcaneus on non-involved and involved sides according to eccentric and concentric strengthening in patients with achilles tendinopathy.

PubMed

Yu, Jaeho; Lee, Gyuchang

2012-01-01

This study compares the changes in pathway and center of gravity (COG) on the calcaneus of non-involved and involved sides according to eccentric and concentric strengthening in patients with unilateral Achilles tendinopathy. The goal was to define the biomechanical changes according to eccentric strengthening for the development of clinical guidelines. Eighteen patients with Achilles tendinopathy were recruited at the K Rehabilitation Hospital in Seoul. The subjects were instructed to perform 5 sessions of concentric strengthening. The calcaneal pathway was measured using a three-dimensional (3D) motion analyzer, and COG was measured by a force plate. Subsequently, eccentric strengthening was implemented, and identical variables were measured. Concentric and eccentric strengthening was carried out on both the involved and non-involved sides. There was no significant difference in the calcaneal pathway in patients with Achilles tendinopathy during concentric and eccentric strengthening. However, during eccentric strengthening, the calcaneal pathway significantly increased on the involved side compared to the non-involved side for all variables excluding the z-axis. COG significantly decreased on the involved side when compared to the non-involved side in patients with Achilles tendinopathy during eccentric and concentric strengthening. During concentric strengthening, all variables of the COG significantly increased on the involved side compared to the non-involved side. Compared with eccentric strengthening, concentric strengthening decreased the stability of ankle joints and increased the movement distance of the calcaneus in patients with Achilles tendinopathy. Furthermore, eccentric strengthening was verified to be an effective exercise method for prevention of Achilles tendinopathy through the reduction of forward and backward path length of foot pressure. The regular application of eccentric strengthening was found to be effective in the secondary prevention of Achilles tendinopathy in a clinical setting.

Changes in continental Europe water cycle in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouholahnejad, Elham; Schirmer, Mario; Abbaspour, Karim

2015-04-01

Changes in atmospheric water vapor content provide strong evidence that the water cycle is already responding to a warming climate. According to IPCC's last report on Climate Change (AR5), the water cycle is expected to intensify in a warmer climate as the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This changes the frequency of precipitation extremes, increases evaporation and dry periods, and effects the water redistribution in land. This process is represented by most global climate models (GCMs) by increased summer dryness and winter wetness over large areas of continental mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, associated with a reduction in water availability at continental scale. Observing changes in precipitation and evaporation directly and at continental scale is difficult, because most of the exchange of fresh water between the atmosphere and the surface happens the oceans. Long term precipitation records are available only from over the land and there are no measurement of evaporation or redistribution of precipitation over the land area. On the other hand, understanding the extent of climate change effects on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance for public, private sectors, and policy makers when it comes to fresh water management. In order to better understand the extent of climate change impacts on water resources of continental Europe, we developed a distributed hydrological model of Europe at high spatial and temporal resolution using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The hydrological model was calibrated for 1970 to 2006 using daily observation of streamflow and nitrate loads from 360 gauging stations across Europe. A vegetation growth routine was added to the model to better simulate evapotranspiration. The model results were calibrated with available agricultural crop yield data from other sources. As of future climate scenarios, we used the ISI-MIP project results which provides bias-corrected climate data from the GCMs participating in the CMIP5 at 0.5° x 0.5° resolution. Data cover the time period from 1901 to 2099, i.e. the historical period, and future projections for all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). We used four different models output (GFDL, HADGEMES, MIROC, and IPSL) for all RCPs for near (2006-2035) and far (3065-2099) future. Multi-model ensembles (16 scenarios) are then used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on fresh water availability across Europe.

[Simulation study on the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of plantation in southern China: Taking Moshao forest farm in Huitong Ecological Station as an example].

PubMed

Dai, Er Fu; Zhou, Heng; Wu, Zhuo; Wang, Xiao-Fan; Xi, Wei Min; Zhu, Jian Jia

2016-10-01

Global climate warming has significant effect on territorial ecosystem, especially on forest ecosystem. The increase in temperature and radiative forcing will significantly alter the structure and function of forest ecosystem. The southern plantation is an important part of forests in China, its response to climate change is getting more and more intense. In order to explore the responses of southern plantation to climate change under future climate scenarios and to reduce the losses that might be caused by climate change, we used climatic estimated data under three new emission scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6 scenario, RCP4.5 scenario, and RCP8.5 scenario). We used the spatially dynamic forest landscape model LANDIS-2, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model PnET-2, to simulate the impact of climate change on aboveground net primary production (ANPP), species' establishment probability (SEP) and aboveground biomass of Moshao forest farm in Huitong Ecological Station, which located in Hunan Province during the period of 2014-2094. The results showed that there were obvious differences in SEP and ANPP among different forest types under changing climate. The degrees of response of SEP to climate change for different forest types were shown as: under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, artificial coniferous forest>natural broadleaved forest>artificial broadleaved forest. Under RCP8.5, natural broadleaved forest>artificial broadleaved forest>artificial coniferous forest. The degrees of response of ANPP to climate change for different forest types were shown as: under RCP2.6, artificial broadleaved forest> natural broadleaved forest>artificial coniferous forest. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, natural broadleaved forest>artificial broadleaved forest>artificial coniferous forest. The aboveground biomass of the artificial coniferous forest would decline at about 2050, but the natural broadleaved forest and artificial broadleaved forest showed a rising trend in general. During the period of 2014-2094, the total aboveground biomass under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increased by 68.2%, 79.3% and 72.6%, respectively. The total aboveground biomass under various climatic scenarios sort as: RCP4.5>RCP8.5>RCP2.6. We thought that an appropriate temperature might be beneficial to the biomass accumulation in this study area. However, overextended temperature might hinder the sustainable development of forest production and ecological function.

Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Future Runoff in the Luanhe River Basin in North China Using Markov and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, W.; Long, D.

2017-12-01

Both land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change exert significant impacts on runoff, which needs to be thoroughly examined in the context of urbanization, population growth, and climate change. The majority of studies focus on the impacts of either LUCC or climate on runoff in the upper reaches of the Panjiakou Reservoir in the Luanhe River basin, North China. In this study, first, two land use change matrices for periods 1970‒1980 and 1980‒2000 were constructed based on the theory of the Markov Chain which were used to predict the land use scenario of the basin in year 2020. Second, a distributed hydrological model, Soil Water Assessment Tools (SWAT), was set up and driven mainly by the China Gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA) product and outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP). Third, under the land use scenario in 2000, streamflow at the Chengde gauging station for the period 1998‒2014 was simulated with the CGDPA as input, and streamflow for the period 2015‒2025 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was simulated using the outputs from GCMs and compared under the land use scenarios in 2000 and 2020. Results show that during 2015‒2025, the ensemble average precipitation in summer (i.e., from June to August) may increase up to 20% but decrease by -16% in fall (i.e., from September to November). The streamflow may increase in all the seasons, particularly in spring (i.e., from March to May) and summer reaching 150% and 142%, respectively. Furthermore, the streamflow may increase even more when the land use scenario for the period 1998‒2025 remains the same as that in 2000. The minimum (61mm) and maximum (77mm) mean annual runoff depth occur under the RCP4.5 and RCP6 scenarios, respectively, compared with the mean annual observed streamflow of 33 mm from 1998 to 2014. Finally, we analyzed the correlation among the main land use types (i.e., agricultural land, forest, and pasture) and evapotranspiration, surface runoff contribution to streamflow (SURQ), groundwater contribution to streamflow (GWQ), and the sum of the surface runoff and groundwater contributions to streamflow (SSGQ), respectively. It was found that the increase in agricultural land may induce the increase in SURQ but the decrease in GWQ.

Comprehensive Evaluation of 1850-2100 Active Layer Thickness and Thawing Index Variability across the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frauenfeld, O. W.; Peng, X.; Zhang, T.

2016-12-01

Both the thawing index (TI) and active layer thickness (ALT) can be useful indicators of climate change in cold regions and have important implications for various surface-atmosphere interactions. Here, we analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the Northern Hemisphere TI and ALT under historical and projected climate change. We combine gridded and station-based observations to assess the multi-model ensemble mean of 16 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models over 1850-2005. The TI and ALT are assessed based on 1901-2014 Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data, and observational ALT from 348 station locations across the Northern Hemisphere. We then employ three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) from the same CMIP5 multi-model ensemble means to evaluate changes for 2006-2100. Over the historical period, the TI varies from 0-11,000°C-days in the Northern Hemisphere, and we find good agreement between CMIP5 models and CRU data; however, the models generally underestimate observed TI and its long-term trends. Over the 2006-2100 period, the multi-model ensemble averaged TI increases significantly for all three RCPs, ranging from 1.5°C-days/yr for RCP 2.6, to 14°C-days/yr for RCP 8.5. The spatial variations in ALT from observing stations exhibit significant variability and generally range from 80-320 cm across the Northern Hemisphere, with some extreme values of 900 cm in the European Alps. Calculating observational ALT for 1971-2000 from CRU, we find lower values (30-650 cm). The CMIP5 climatology agrees well with the CRU estimates. ALT trends over the observational period are generally less than 1.5 cm/decade, but as high as 3 cm/decade in some isolated regions. While this general trend magnitude agrees with that from CMIP5, the multi-model ensemble underestimates trends and exhibits much less spatial variability. Projected trends range from 0.77 cm/decade in RCP 2.6, to 6.5 cm/decade in RCP 8.5 in the permafrost regions across the Northern Hemisphere. Over the observational period, summer air temperature and precipitation are found to be the main drivers of ALT variability. However, the declining Arctic sea ice trend is also strongly negatively correlated with ALT increases, pointing to a common driver of these cryospheric changes.

Relative Contributions of Agricultural Drift, Para-Occupational, and Residential Use Exposure Pathways to House Dust Pesticide Concentrations: Meta-Regression of Published Data.

PubMed

Deziel, Nicole C; Freeman, Laura E Beane; Graubard, Barry I; Jones, Rena R; Hoppin, Jane A; Thomas, Kent; Hines, Cynthia J; Blair, Aaron; Sandler, Dale P; Chen, Honglei; Lubin, Jay H; Andreotti, Gabriella; Alavanja, Michael C R; Friesen, Melissa C

2017-03-01

Increased pesticide concentrations in house dust in agricultural areas have been attributed to several exposure pathways, including agricultural drift, para-occupational, and residential use. To guide future exposure assessment efforts, we quantified relative contributions of these pathways using meta-regression models of published data on dust pesticide concentrations. From studies in North American agricultural areas published from 1995 to 2015, we abstracted dust pesticide concentrations reported as summary statistics [e.g., geometric means (GM)]. We analyzed these data using mixed-effects meta-regression models that weighted each summary statistic by its inverse variance. Dependent variables were either the log-transformed GM (drift) or the log-transformed ratio of GMs from two groups (para-occupational, residential use). For the drift pathway, predicted GMs decreased sharply and nonlinearly, with GMs 64% lower in homes 250 m versus 23 m from fields (interquartile range of published data) based on 52 statistics from seven studies. For the para-occupational pathway, GMs were 2.3 times higher [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5, 3.3; 15 statistics, five studies] in homes of farmers who applied pesticides more recently or frequently versus less recently or frequently. For the residential use pathway, GMs were 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.4) and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.2, 1.9) times higher in treated versus untreated homes, when the probability that a pesticide was used for the pest treatment was 1-19% and ≥ 20%, respectively (88 statistics, five studies). Our quantification of the relative contributions of pesticide exposure pathways in agricultural populations could improve exposure assessments in epidemiologic studies. The meta-regression models can be updated when additional data become available. Citation: Deziel NC, Beane Freeman LE, Graubard BI, Jones RR, Hoppin JA, Thomas K, Hines CJ, Blair A, Sandler DP, Chen H, Lubin JH, Andreotti G, Alavanja MC, Friesen MC. 2017. Relative contributions of agricultural drift, para-occupational, and residential use exposure pathways to house dust pesticide concentrations: meta-regression of published data. Environ Health Perspect 125:296-305; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP426.

Relative Contributions of Agricultural Drift, Para-Occupational, and Residential Use Exposure Pathways to House Dust Pesticide Concentrations: Meta-Regression of Published Data

PubMed Central

Deziel, Nicole C.; Freeman, Laura E. Beane; Graubard, Barry I.; Jones, Rena R.; Hoppin, Jane A.; Thomas, Kent; Hines, Cynthia J.; Blair, Aaron; Sandler, Dale P.; Chen, Honglei; Lubin, Jay H.; Andreotti, Gabriella; Alavanja, Michael C. R.; Friesen, Melissa C.

2016-01-01

Background: Increased pesticide concentrations in house dust in agricultural areas have been attributed to several exposure pathways, including agricultural drift, para-occupational, and residential use. Objective: To guide future exposure assessment efforts, we quantified relative contributions of these pathways using meta-regression models of published data on dust pesticide concentrations. Methods: From studies in North American agricultural areas published from 1995 to 2015, we abstracted dust pesticide concentrations reported as summary statistics [e.g., geometric means (GM)]. We analyzed these data using mixed-effects meta-regression models that weighted each summary statistic by its inverse variance. Dependent variables were either the log-transformed GM (drift) or the log-transformed ratio of GMs from two groups (para-occupational, residential use). Results: For the drift pathway, predicted GMs decreased sharply and nonlinearly, with GMs 64% lower in homes 250 m versus 23 m from fields (interquartile range of published data) based on 52 statistics from seven studies. For the para-occupational pathway, GMs were 2.3 times higher [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5, 3.3; 15 statistics, five studies] in homes of farmers who applied pesticides more recently or frequently versus less recently or frequently. For the residential use pathway, GMs were 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.4) and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.2, 1.9) times higher in treated versus untreated homes, when the probability that a pesticide was used for the pest treatment was 1–19% and ≥ 20%, respectively (88 statistics, five studies). Conclusion: Our quantification of the relative contributions of pesticide exposure pathways in agricultural populations could improve exposure assessments in epidemiologic studies. The meta-regression models can be updated when additional data become available. Citation: Deziel NC, Beane Freeman LE, Graubard BI, Jones RR, Hoppin JA, Thomas K, Hines CJ, Blair A, Sandler DP, Chen H, Lubin JH, Andreotti G, Alavanja MC, Friesen MC. 2017. Relative contributions of agricultural drift, para-occupational, and residential use exposure pathways to house dust pesticide concentrations: meta-regression of published data. Environ Health Perspect 125:296–305; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP426 PMID:27458779

Wnt/β-Catenin Expression Does Not Correlate with Serum Alkaline Phosphatase Concentration in Canine Osteosarcoma Patients

PubMed Central

Piskun, Caroline M.; Muthuswamy, Anantharaman; Huelsmeyer, Michael K.; Thompson, Victoria; Stein, Timothy J.

2011-01-01

Osteosarcoma is an aggressive malignancy of the bone and an increase in serum alkaline phosphatase concentration has clinical prognostic value in both humans and canines. Increased serum alkaline phosphatase concentration at the time of diagnosis has been associated with poorer outcomes for osteosarcoma patients. The biology underlying this negative prognostic factor is poorly understood. Given that activation of the Wnt signaling pathway has been associated with alkaline phosphatase expression in osteoblasts, we hypothesized that the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway would be differentially activated in osteosarcoma tissue based on serum ALP status. Archived canine osteosarcoma samples and primary canine osteosarcoma cell lines were used to evaluate the status of Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway activity through immunohistochemical staining, western immunoblot analyses, quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction, and a Wnt-responsive promoter activity assay. We found no significant difference in β-catenin expression or activation between OSA populations differing in serum ALP concentration. Pathway activity was mildly increased in the primary OSA cell line generated from a patient with increased serum ALP compared to the normal serum ALP OSA cell line. Further investigation into the mechanisms underlying differences in serum ALP concentration is necessary to improve our understanding of the biological implications of this negative prognostic indicator. PMID:22022527

Differential reconstructed gene interaction networks for deriving toxicity threshold in chemical risk assessment.

PubMed

Yang, Yi; Maxwell, Andrew; Zhang, Xiaowei; Wang, Nan; Perkins, Edward J; Zhang, Chaoyang; Gong, Ping

2013-01-01

Pathway alterations reflected as changes in gene expression regulation and gene interaction can result from cellular exposure to toxicants. Such information is often used to elucidate toxicological modes of action. From a risk assessment perspective, alterations in biological pathways are a rich resource for setting toxicant thresholds, which may be more sensitive and mechanism-informed than traditional toxicity endpoints. Here we developed a novel differential networks (DNs) approach to connect pathway perturbation with toxicity threshold setting. Our DNs approach consists of 6 steps: time-series gene expression data collection, identification of altered genes, gene interaction network reconstruction, differential edge inference, mapping of genes with differential edges to pathways, and establishment of causal relationships between chemical concentration and perturbed pathways. A one-sample Gaussian process model and a linear regression model were used to identify genes that exhibited significant profile changes across an entire time course and between treatments, respectively. Interaction networks of differentially expressed (DE) genes were reconstructed for different treatments using a state space model and then compared to infer differential edges/interactions. DE genes possessing differential edges were mapped to biological pathways in databases such as KEGG pathways. Using the DNs approach, we analyzed a time-series Escherichia coli live cell gene expression dataset consisting of 4 treatments (control, 10, 100, 1000 mg/L naphthenic acids, NAs) and 18 time points. Through comparison of reconstructed networks and construction of differential networks, 80 genes were identified as DE genes with a significant number of differential edges, and 22 KEGG pathways were altered in a concentration-dependent manner. Some of these pathways were perturbed to a degree as high as 70% even at the lowest exposure concentration, implying a high sensitivity of our DNs approach. Findings from this proof-of-concept study suggest that our approach has a great potential in providing a novel and sensitive tool for threshold setting in chemical risk assessment. In future work, we plan to analyze more time-series datasets with a full spectrum of concentrations and sufficient replications per treatment. The pathway alteration-derived thresholds will also be compared with those derived from apical endpoints such as cell growth rate.

Modeling of coupled differential equations for cellular chemical signaling pathways: Implications for assay protocols utilized in cellular engineering.

PubMed

O'Clock, George D

2016-08-01

Cellular engineering involves modification and control of cell properties, and requires an understanding of fundamentals and mechanisms of action for cellular derived product development. One of the keys to success in cellular engineering involves the quality and validity of results obtained from cell chemical signaling pathway assays. The accuracy of the assay data cannot be verified or assured if the effect of positive feedback, nonlinearities, and interrelationships between cell chemical signaling pathway elements are not understood, modeled, and simulated. Nonlinearities and positive feedback in the cell chemical signaling pathway can produce significant aberrations in assay data collection. Simulating the pathway can reveal potential instability problems that will affect assay results. A simulation, using an electrical analog for the coupled differential equations representing each segment of the pathway, provides an excellent tool for assay validation purposes. With this approach, voltages represent pathway enzyme concentrations and operational amplifier feedback resistance and input resistance values determine pathway gain and rate constants. The understanding provided by pathway modeling and simulation is strategically important in order to establish experimental controls for assay protocol structure, time frames specified between assays, and assay concentration variation limits; to ensure accuracy and reproducibility of results.

Bisphenol A at a low concentration boosts mouse spermatogonial cell proliferation by inducing the G protein-coupled receptor 30 expression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheng, Zhi-Guo; Huang, Wei; Liu, Yu-Xiang

Bisphenol A (BPA) is one of the most prevalent chemicals in daily-use materials, therefore, human exposure to BPA is ubiquitous. We found that low concentrations of BPA stimulate the spermatogonial GC-1 cells proliferation by G protein-coupled receptor 30 (GPR30)-mediated epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-extracellular regulated kinase (ERK)-c-Fos pathway. However, through the same pathway GPR30 expression has been shown to be induced by EGF, an EGFR ligand. Thus, we want to know if low concentrations of BPA are able to induce the GPR30 expression and the possible mechanism(s) in GC-1 cells. By transient transfection with expression plasmids, 10{sup −9} M BPAmore » significantly transactivates the Gpr30-5′-flanking region through activating the GPR30, cGMP-dependent protein kinase (PKG), estrogen receptor-α (ER-α), and EFGR-ERK pathways. Furthermore, an activator protein-1 (AP-1) site located within this region is found to be responsible for the transactivation of BPA. Expectedly, through the same pathways, BPA significantly induces the gene and protein expression of GPR30. c-Fos is further observed to be strongly recruited to the AP-1 site in a chromatin immunoprecipitation assay and its dysfunction on the AP-1 site markedly suppresses the expression of GPR30, p-ERK1/2, p-Ser118-ER-α and cell proliferation by BPA. Our results demonstrate that a low-concentration BPA induces GPR30 expression through the GPR30-EFGR-ERK-c-Fos, ER-α, and PKG pathways, presumably boosting the cells proliferation via a regulatory loop. The present study provides a novel insight into the potential role of GPR30 in the initiation and progression of male germ cell cancer induced by environmentally relevant BPA. - Highlights: ► Low concentrations of BPA activate the PKG and GPR30-EFGR-ERK-ER-α pathways. ► Low concentrations of BPA activate the AP-1 site of Gpr30-5′-flanking region. ► Low concentrations of BPA induce the expression of GPR30 gene and protein. ► Low concentrations of BPA boost GC-1 cells proliferation via a regulatory loop.« less

Indole-3-acetic acid biosynthesis in Fusarium delphinoides strain GPK, a causal agent of Wilt in Chickpea.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Guruprasad B; Sanjeevkumar, S; Kirankumar, B; Santoshkumar, M; Karegoudar, T B

2013-02-01

Fusarium delphinoides (Ascomycota; Nectriaceae) is an indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) producing plant pathogen and a causal agent of wilt in chickpea. The IAA biosynthetic pathway in F. delphinoides strain GPK (FDG) was examined by analyzing metabolic intermediates and by feeding experiments. Gas chromatograph (GC) analysis of FDG culture filtrates showed the presence of metabolic intermediates of indole-3-pyruvic acid (IPyA), indole-3-acetamide (IAM), and tryptamine (TRA) pathways. The different IAA biosynthetic pathways were further confirmed by identifying the presence of different enzymes of these pathways. Substrate specificity study of aromatic amino acid aminotransferase revealed that the enzyme is highly specific for tryptophan (Trp) and α-ketoglutarate (α-kg) as amino group donor and acceptor, respectively. Furthermore, the concentration-dependent effect of exogenous IAA on fungal growth was established. Low concentration of exogenous IAA increases the fungal growth and at high concentration it decreases the growth of FDG.

Estimating changes in urban ozone concentrations due to life cycle emissions from hydrogen transportation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guihua; Ogden, Joan M.; Chang, Daniel P. Y.

Hydrogen has been proposed as a low polluting alternative transportation fuel that could help improve urban air quality. This paper examines the potential impact of introducing a hydrogen-based transportation system on urban ambient ozone concentrations. This paper considers two scenarios, where significant numbers of new hydrogen vehicles are added to a constant number of gasoline vehicles. In our scenarios hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are introduced in Sacramento, California at market penetrations of 9% and 20%. From a life cycle analysis (LCA) perspective, considering all the emissions involved in producing, transporting, and using hydrogen, this research compares three hypothetical natural gas to hydrogen pathways: (1) on-site hydrogen production; (2) central hydrogen production with pipeline delivery; and (3) central hydrogen production with liquid hydrogen truck delivery. Using a regression model, this research shows that the daily maximum temperature correlates well with atmospheric ozone formation. However, increases in initial VOC and NO x concentrations do not necessarily increase the peak ozone concentration, and may even cause it to decrease. It is found that ozone formation is generally limited by NO x in the summer and is mostly limited by VOC in the fall in Sacramento. Of the three hydrogen pathways, the truck delivery pathway contributes the most to ozone precursor emissions. Ozone precursor emissions from the truck pathway at 9% market penetration can cause additional 3-h average VOC (or NO x) concentrations up to approximately 0.05% (or 1%) of current pollution levels, and at 20% market penetration up to approximately 0.1% (or 2%) of current pollution levels. However, all of the hydrogen pathways would result in very small (either negative or positive) changes in ozone air quality. In some cases they will result in worse ozone air quality (mostly in July, August, and September), and in some cases they will result in better ozone air quality (mostly in October). The truck pathway tends to cause a much wider fluctuation in degradation or improvement of ozone air quality: percentage changes in peak ozone concentrations are approximately -0.01% to 0.04% for the assumed 9% market penetration, and approximately -0.03% to 0.1% for the 20% market penetration. Moreover, the 20% on-site pathway occasionally results in a decrease of about -0.1% of baseline ozone pollution. Compared to the current ambient pollution level, all three hydrogen pathways are unlikely to cause a serious ozone problem for market penetration levels of HFCVs in the 9-20% range.

NanoCluster Beacons as reporter probes in rolling circle enhanced enzyme activity detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juul, Sissel; Obliosca, Judy M.; Liu, Cong; Liu, Yen-Liang; Chen, Yu-An; Imphean, Darren M.; Knudsen, Birgitta R.; Ho, Yi-Ping; Leong, Kam W.; Yeh, Hsin-Chih

2015-04-01

As a newly developed assay for the detection of endogenous enzyme activity at the single-catalytic-event level, Rolling Circle Enhanced Enzyme Activity Detection (REEAD) has been used to measure enzyme activity in both single human cells and malaria-causing parasites, Plasmodium sp. Current REEAD assays rely on organic dye-tagged linear DNA probes to report the rolling circle amplification products (RCPs), the cost of which may hinder the widespread use of REEAD. Here we show that a new class of activatable probes, NanoCluster Beacons (NCBs), can simplify the REEAD assays. Easily prepared without any need for purification and capable of large fluorescence enhancement upon hybridization, NCBs are cost-effective and sensitive. Compared to conventional fluorescent probes, NCBs are also more photostable. As demonstrated in reporting the human topoisomerases I (hTopI) cleavage-ligation reaction, the proposed NCBs suggest a read-out format attractive for future REEAD-based diagnostics.As a newly developed assay for the detection of endogenous enzyme activity at the single-catalytic-event level, Rolling Circle Enhanced Enzyme Activity Detection (REEAD) has been used to measure enzyme activity in both single human cells and malaria-causing parasites, Plasmodium sp. Current REEAD assays rely on organic dye-tagged linear DNA probes to report the rolling circle amplification products (RCPs), the cost of which may hinder the widespread use of REEAD. Here we show that a new class of activatable probes, NanoCluster Beacons (NCBs), can simplify the REEAD assays. Easily prepared without any need for purification and capable of large fluorescence enhancement upon hybridization, NCBs are cost-effective and sensitive. Compared to conventional fluorescent probes, NCBs are also more photostable. As demonstrated in reporting the human topoisomerases I (hTopI) cleavage-ligation reaction, the proposed NCBs suggest a read-out format attractive for future REEAD-based diagnostics. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: The detailed steps of NCB preparation, REEAD assay and STEM imaging. The sequences of the sNCB and the REEAD substrate. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr01705j

Comparative physiology and architecture associated with the mammalian urine concentrating mechanism: role of inner medullary water and urea transport pathways in the rodent medulla.

PubMed

Pannabecker, Thomas L

2013-04-01

Comparative studies of renal structure and function have potential to provide insights into the urine-concentrating mechanism of the mammalian kidney. This review focuses on the tubular transport pathways for water and urea that play key roles in fluid and solute movements between various compartments of the rodent renal inner medulla. Information on aquaporin water channel and urea transporter expression has increased our understanding of functional segmentation of medullary thin limbs of Henle's loops, collecting ducts, and vasa recta. A more complete understanding of membrane transporters and medullary architecture has identified new and potentially significant interactions between these structures and the interstitium. These interactions are now being introduced into our concept of how the inner medullary urine-concentrating mechanism works. A variety of regulatory pathways lead directly or indirectly to variable patterns of fluid and solute movements among the interstitial and tissue compartments. Animals with the ability to produce highly concentrated urine, such as desert species, are considered to exemplify tubular structure and function that optimize urine concentration. These species may provide unique insights into the urine-concentrating process.(1)

Comparative physiology and architecture associated with the mammalian urine concentrating mechanism: role of inner medullary water and urea transport pathways in the rodent medulla

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Comparative studies of renal structure and function have potential to provide insights into the urine-concentrating mechanism of the mammalian kidney. This review focuses on the tubular transport pathways for water and urea that play key roles in fluid and solute movements between various compartments of the rodent renal inner medulla. Information on aquaporin water channel and urea transporter expression has increased our understanding of functional segmentation of medullary thin limbs of Henle's loops, collecting ducts, and vasa recta. A more complete understanding of membrane transporters and medullary architecture has identified new and potentially significant interactions between these structures and the interstitium. These interactions are now being introduced into our concept of how the inner medullary urine-concentrating mechanism works. A variety of regulatory pathways lead directly or indirectly to variable patterns of fluid and solute movements among the interstitial and tissue compartments. Animals with the ability to produce highly concentrated urine, such as desert species, are considered to exemplify tubular structure and function that optimize urine concentration. These species may provide unique insights into the urine-concentrating process.1 PMID:23364530

Genetic variants in two pathways influence serum urate levels and gout risk: a systematic pathway analysis.

PubMed

Dong, Zheng; Zhou, Jingru; Xu, Xia; Jiang, Shuai; Li, Yuan; Zhao, Dongbao; Yang, Chengde; Ma, Yanyun; Wang, Yi; He, Hongjun; Ji, Hengdong; Zhang, Juan; Yuan, Ziyu; Yang, Yajun; Wang, Xiaofeng; Pang, Yafei; Jin, Li; Zou, Hejian; Wang, Jiucun

2018-03-01

The aims of this study were to identify candidate pathways associated with serum urate and to explore the genetic effect of those pathways on the risk of gout. Pathway analysis of the loci identified in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) showed that the ion transmembrane transporter activity pathway (GO: 0015075) and the secondary active transmembrane transporter activity pathway (GO: 0015291) were both associated with serum urate concentrations, with P FDR values of 0.004 and 0.007, respectively. In a Chinese population of 4,332 individuals, the two pathways were also found to be associated with serum urate (P FDR  = 1.88E-05 and 3.44E-04, separately). In addition, these two pathways were further associated with the pathogenesis of gout (P FDR  = 1.08E-08 and 2.66E-03, respectively) in the Chinese population and a novel gout-associated gene, SLC17A2, was identified (OR = 0.83, P FDR  = 0.017). The mRNA expression of candidate genes also showed significant differences among different groups at pathway level. The present study identified two transmembrane transporter activity pathways (GO: 0015075 and GO: 0015291) were associations with serum urate concentrations and the risk of gout. SLC17A2 was identified as a novel gene that influenced the risk of gout.

Water deficit alters differentially metabolic pathways affecting important flavor and quality traits in grape berries of Cabernet Sauvignon and Chardonnay

PubMed Central

Deluc, Laurent G; Quilici, David R; Decendit, Alain; Grimplet, Jérôme; Wheatley, Matthew D; Schlauch, Karen A; Mérillon, Jean-Michel; Cushman, John C; Cramer, Grant R

2009-01-01

Background Water deficit has significant effects on grape berry composition resulting in improved wine quality by the enhancement of color, flavors, or aromas. While some pathways or enzymes affected by water deficit have been identified, little is known about the global effects of water deficit on grape berry metabolism. Results The effects of long-term, seasonal water deficit on berries of Cabernet Sauvignon, a red-wine grape, and Chardonnay, a white-wine grape were analyzed by integrated transcript and metabolite profiling. Over the course of berry development, the steady-state transcript abundance of approximately 6,000 Unigenes differed significantly between the cultivars and the irrigation treatments. Water deficit most affected the phenylpropanoid, ABA, isoprenoid, carotenoid, amino acid and fatty acid metabolic pathways. Targeted metabolites were profiled to confirm putative changes in specific metabolic pathways. Water deficit activated the expression of numerous transcripts associated with glutamate and proline biosynthesis and some committed steps of the phenylpropanoid pathway that increased anthocyanin concentrations in Cabernet Sauvignon. In Chardonnay, water deficit activated parts of the phenylpropanoid, energy, carotenoid and isoprenoid metabolic pathways that contribute to increased concentrations of antheraxanthin, flavonols and aroma volatiles. Water deficit affected the ABA metabolic pathway in both cultivars. Berry ABA concentrations were highly correlated with 9-cis-epoxycarotenoid dioxygenase (NCED1) transcript abundance, whereas the mRNA expression of other NCED genes and ABA catabolic and glycosylation processes were largely unaffected. Water deficit nearly doubled ABA concentrations within berries of Cabernet Sauvignon, whereas it decreased ABA in Chardonnay at véraison and shortly thereafter. Conclusion The metabolic responses of grapes to water deficit varied with the cultivar and fruit pigmentation. Chardonnay berries, which lack any significant anthocyanin content, exhibited increased photoprotection mechanisms under water deficit conditions. Water deficit increased ABA, proline, sugar and anthocyanin concentrations in Cabernet Sauvignon, but not Chardonnay berries, consistent with the hypothesis that ABA enhanced accumulation of these compounds. Water deficit increased the transcript abundance of lipoxygenase and hydroperoxide lyase in fatty metabolism, a pathway known to affect berry and wine aromas. These changes in metabolism have important impacts on berry flavor and quality characteristics. Several of these metabolites are known to contribute to increased human-health benefits. PMID:19426499

Theoretical Analysis of Fas Ligand-Induced Apoptosis with an Ordinary Differential Equation Model.

PubMed

Shi, Zhimin; Li, Yan; Liu, Zhihai; Mi, Jun; Wang, Renxiao

2012-12-01

Upon the treatment of Fas ligand, different types of cells exhibit different apoptotic mechanisms, which are determined by a complex network of biological pathways. In order to derive a quantitative interpretation of the cell sensitivity and apoptosis pathways, we have developed an ordinary differential equation model. Our model is intended to include all of the known major components in apoptosis pathways mediated by Fas receptor. It is composed of 29 equations using a total of 49 rate constants and 13 protein concentrations. All parameters used in our model were derived through nonlinear fitting to experimentally measured concentrations of four selected proteins in Jurkat T-cells, including caspase-3, caspase-8, caspase-9, and Bid. Our model is able to correctly interpret the role of kinetic parameters and protein concentrations in cell sensitivity to FasL. It reveals the possible reasons for the transition between type-I and type-II pathways and also provides some interesting predictions, such as the more decisive role of Fas over Bax in apoptosis pathway and a possible feedback mechanism between type-I and type-II pathways. But our model failed in predicting FasL-induced apoptotic mechanism of NCI-60 cells from their gene-expression levels. Limitations in our model are also discussed. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

(Na+ + K+)-ATPase Is a Target for Phosphoinositide 3-Kinase/Protein Kinase B and Protein Kinase C Pathways Triggered by Albumin*

PubMed Central

Peruchetti, Diogo B.; Pinheiro, Ana Acacia S.; Landgraf, Sharon S.; Wengert, Mira; Takiya, Christina M.; Guggino, William B.; Caruso-Neves, Celso

2011-01-01

In recent decades, evidence has confirmed the crucial role of albumin in the progression of renal disease. However, the possible role of signaling pathways triggered by physiologic concentrations of albumin in the modulation of proximal tubule (PT) sodium reabsorption has not been considered. In the present work, we have shown that a physiologic concentration of albumin increases the expression of the α1 subunit of (Na+ + K+)-ATPase in LLC-PK1 cells leading to an increase in enzyme activity. This process involves the sequential activation of PI3K/protein kinase B and protein kinase C pathways promoting inhibition of protein kinase A. This integrative network is inhibited when albumin concentration is increased, similar to renal disease, leading to a decrease in the α1 subunit of (Na+ + K+)-ATPase expression. Together, the results indicate that variation in albumin concentration in PT cells has an important effect on PT sodium reabsorption and, consequently, on renal sodium excretion. PMID:22057272

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, Jaime B.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David; John, Jasmin G.

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal - or net negative emissions - might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.

The effect of long-range air mass transport pathways on PM10 and NO2 concentrations at urban and rural background sites in Ireland: Quantification using clustering techniques.

PubMed

Donnelly, Aoife A; Broderick, Brian M; Misstear, Bruce D

2015-01-01

The specific aims of this paper are to: (i) quantify the effects of various long range transport pathways nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter with diameter less than 10μm (PM10) concentrations in Ireland and identify air mass movement corridors which may lead to incidences poor air quality for application in forecasting; (ii) compare the effects of such pathways at various sites; (iii) assess pathways associated with a period of decreased air quality in Ireland. The origin of and the regions traversed by an air mass 96h prior to reaching a receptor is modelled and k-means clustering is applied to create air-mass groups. Significant differences in air pollution levels were found between air mass cluster types at urban and rural sites. It was found that easterly or recirculated air masses lead to higher NO2 and PM10 levels with average NO2 levels varying between 124% and 239% of the seasonal mean and average PM10 levels varying between 103% and 199% of the seasonal mean at urban and rural sites. Easterly air masses are more frequent during winter months leading to higher overall concentrations. The span in relative concentrations between air mass clusters is highest at the rural site indicating that regional factors are controlling concentration levels. The methods used in this paper could be applied to assist in modelling and forecasting air quality based on long range transport pathways and forecast meteorology without the requirement for detailed emissions data over a large regional domain or the use of computationally demanding modelling techniques.

Microfluidic device generating stable concentration gradients for long term cell culture: application to Wnt3a regulation of β-catenin signaling.

PubMed

Cimetta, Elisa; Cannizzaro, Christopher; James, Richard; Biechele, Travis; Moon, Randall T; Elvassore, Nicola; Vunjak-Novakovic, Gordana

2010-12-07

In developing tissues, proteins and signaling molecules present themselves in the form of concentration gradients, which determine the fate specification and behavior of the sensing cells. To mimic these conditions in vitro, we developed a microfluidic device designed to generate stable concentration gradients at low hydrodynamic shear and allowing long term culture of adhering cells. The gradient forms in a culture space between two parallel laminar flow streams of culture medium at two different concentrations of a given morphogen. The exact algorithm for defining the concentration gradients was established with the aid of mathematical modeling of flow and mass transport. Wnt3a regulation of β-catenin signaling was chosen as a case study. The highly conserved Wnt-activated β-catenin pathway plays major roles in embryonic development, stem cell proliferation and differentiation. Wnt3a stimulates the activity of β-catenin pathway, leading to translocation of β-catenin to the nucleus where it activates a series of target genes. We cultured A375 cells stably expressing a Wnt/β-catenin reporter driving the expression of Venus, pBARVS, inside the microfluidic device. The extent to which the β-catenin pathway was activated in response to a gradient of Wnt3a was assessed in real time using the BARVS reporter gene. On a single cell level, the β-catenin signaling was proportionate to the concentration gradient of Wnt3a; we thus propose that the modulation of Wnt3a gradients in real time can provide new insights into the dynamics of β-catenin pathway, under conditions that replicate some aspects of the actual cell-tissue milieu. Our device thus offers a highly controllable platform for exploring the effects of concentration gradients on cultured cells.

Alterations in receptor expression or agonist concentration change the pathways gastrin-releasing peptide receptor uses to regulate extracellular signal-regulated kinase.

PubMed

Chen, Pei-Wen; Kroog, Glenn S

2004-12-01

G protein-coupled receptors activate extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) via different pathways in different cell types. In this study, we demonstrate that gastrin-releasing peptide receptor (GRPr) regulates ERK through multiple pathways in a single cell type depending upon receptor expression and agonist concentration. We examined stably transfected BALB/c 3T3 fibroblasts expressing GRPr constructs at different levels and treated the cells with several concentrations of bombesin (BN, a GRPr agonist) to activate a variable number of GRPr per cell. GRPr induced two waves of ERK activation and one wave of ERK inhibition. One wave of activation required an intact GRPr carboxyl-terminal domain (CTD). It peaked 6 min after addition of high BN concentration ([BN]) in cells with high GRPr expression. Another wave of activation was CTD-independent. It peaked 2 to 4 min after BN addition in cells when [BN] and/or GRPr expression were lower. The early wave of ERK activation was more sensitive than the later one to pretreatment with Bisindolylmaleimide I (GF 109203X) (a protein kinase C inhibitor) or hypertonic sucrose. Because these two waves of activation differ in time course, dose-response curve, requirement for GRPr CTD, and sensitivity to inhibitors, they result from different signaling pathways. A third pathway in these cells inhibited ERK phosphorylation 2 min after addition of high [BN] in cells with high GRPr expression. Furthermore, a GRPr-expressing human duodenal cancer cell line showed differential sensitivity to GF 109203X throughout BN-induced ERK activation, indicating that GRPr may activate ERK via multiple pathways in cells expressing endogenous GRPr.

Comparison of Pathway and Center of Gravity of the Calcaneus on Non-Involved and Involved Sides According to Eccentric and Concentric Strengthening in Patients With Achilles Tendinopathy

PubMed Central

Yu, JaeHo; Lee, GyuChang

2012-01-01

This study compares the changes in pathway and center of gravity (COG) on the calcaneus of non-involved and involved sides according to eccentric and concentric strengthening in patients with unilateral Achilles tendinopathy. The goal was to define the biomechanical changes according to eccentric strengthening for the development of clinical guidelines. Eighteen patients with Achilles tendinopathy were recruited at the K Rehabilitation Hospital in Seoul. The subjects were instructed to perform 5 sessions of concentric strengthening. The calcaneal pathway was measured using a three-dimensional (3D) motion analyzer, and COG was measured by a force plate. Subsequently, eccentric strengthening was implemented, and identical variables were measured. Concentric and eccentric strengthening was carried out on both the involved and non-involved sides. There was no significant difference in the calcaneal pathway in patients with Achilles tendinopathy during concentric and eccentric strengthening. However, during eccentric strengthening, the calcaneal pathway significantly increased on the involved side compared to the non-involved side for all variables excluding the z-axis. COG significantly decreased on the involved side when compared to the non-involved side in patients with Achilles tendinopathy during eccentric and concentric strengthening. During concentric strengthening, all variables of the COG significantly increased on the involved side compared to the non-involved side. Compared with eccentric strengthening, concentric strengthening decreased the stability of ankle joints and increased the movement distance of the calcaneus in patients with Achilles tendinopathy. Furthermore, eccentric strengthening was verified to be an effective exercise method for prevention of Achilles tendinopathy through the reduction of forward and backward path length of foot pressure. The regular application of eccentric strengthening was found to be effective in the secondary prevention of Achilles tendinopathy in a clinical setting. Key point Compared with eccentric strengthening, concentric strengthening decreased the stability of ankle joints, increasing movement of the calcaneus in patients with Achilles tendinopathy. Eccentric strengthening was shown to be an effective exercise method for preventing Achilles tendinopathy through the reduction of forward and backward path length of foot pressure. It was verified that regular application of eccentric strengthening is effective in secondary prevention of Achilles tendinopathy in the clinical setting. PMID:24149129

Differentiating high priority pathway-based toxicity from non ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The ToxCast chemical screening approach enables the rapid assessment of large numbers of chemicals for biological effects, primarily at the molecular level. Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) offer a means to link biomolecular effects with potential adverse outcomes at the level of the individual or population, thus enhancing the utility of the ToxCast effort for hazard assessment. Thus, efforts are underway to develop AOPs relevant to the pathway perturbations detected in ToxCast assays. However, activity (?‘hits’) determined for chemical-assay pairs may reflect target-specific activity relevant to a molecular initiating event of an AOP, or more generalized cell stress and cytotoxicity-mediated effects. Previous work identified a ?‘cytotoxic burst’ phenomenon wherein large numbers of assays begin to respond at or near concentrations that elicit cytotoxicity. The concentration range at which the “burst” occurs is definable, statistically. Consequently, in order to focus AOP development on the ToxCast assay targetswhich are most sensitive and relevant to pathway-specific effects, we conducted a meta-analysis to identify which assays were frequently responding at concentrations well below the cytotoxic burst. Assays were ranked by the fraction of chemical hits below the burst concentration range compared to the number of chemicals tested, resulting in a preliminary list of potentially important, target-specific assays. After eliminating cytotoxicity a

Water Footprint and Land Requirement of Solar Thermochemical Jet-Fuel Production.

PubMed

Falter, Christoph; Pitz-Paal, Robert

2017-11-07

The production of alternative fuels via the solar thermochemical pathway has the potential to provide supply security and to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. H 2 O and CO 2 are converted to liquid hydrocarbon fuels using concentrated solar energy mediated by redox reactions of a metal oxide. Because attractive production locations are in arid regions, the water footprint and the land requirement of this fuel production pathway are analyzed. The water footprint consists of 7.4 liters per liter of jet fuel of direct demand on-site and 42.4 liters per liter of jet fuel of indirect demand, where the dominant contributions are the mining of the rare earth oxide ceria, the manufacturing of the solar concentration infrastructure, and the cleaning of the mirrors. The area-specific productivity is found to be 33 362 liters per hectare per year of jet fuel equivalents, where the land coverage is mainly due to the concentration of solar energy for heat and electricity. The water footprint and the land requirement of the solar thermochemical fuel pathway are larger than the best power-to-liquid pathways but an order of magnitude lower than the best biomass-to-liquid pathways. For the production of solar thermochemical fuels arid regions are best-suited, and for biofuels regions of a moderate and humid climate.

Transport pathway and source area for Artemisia pollen in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Xiaoxin; Li, Yiyin; Sun, Xu; Meng, Ling; Wang, Xiaoke

2017-12-01

Artemisia pollen is an important allergen responsible for allergic rhinitis in Beijing, China. To explore the transport pathways and source areas of Artemisia pollen, we used Burkard 7-day traps to monitor daily pollen concentrations in 2016 in an urban and suburban locality. Backward trajectories of 24- and 96-h and their cluster analysis were performed to identify transport pathways of Artemisia pollen using the HYSPLIT model on 0.5° × 0.5° GADS meteorological data. The potential source contribution function (PSCF) and concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) were calculated to further identify the major potential source areas at local, regional, and long-range scales. Our results showed significant differences in Artemisia pollen concentration between urban and suburban areas, attributed to differences in plant distribution and altitude of the sampling locality. Such differences arisen from both pollen emission and air mass movements, hence pollen dispersal. At local or regional scales, source area of northwestern parts of Beijing City, Hebei Province and northern and northwestern parts of Inner Mongolia influenced the major transport pathways of Artemisia pollen. Transport pathway at a long-range scale and its corresponding source area extended to northwestern parts of Mongolia. The regional-scale transport affected by wind and altitude is more profound for Artemisia pollen at the suburban than at the urban station.

Ability of Mn2+ to Permeate the Eye and Availability of Manganese-enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Visual Pathway Imaging via Topical Administration

PubMed Central

Chen, Yao; Shi, Chun-Yan; Li, Ying; Hu, Yun-Tao; Han, Hong-Bin; Sun, Xiao-Dong; Salvi, Satyajeet S; Ma, Zhi-Zhong

2016-01-01

Background: Manganese-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MEMRI) for visual pathway imaging via topical administration requires further research. This study investigated the permeability of the corneal epithelium and corneal toxicity after topical administration of Mn2+ to understand the applicability of MEMRI. Methods: Forty New Zealand rabbits were divided into 0.05 mol/L, 0.10 mol/L, and 0.20 mol/L groups as well as a control group (n = 10 in each group). Each group was further subdivided into epithelium-removed and epithelium-intact subgroups (n = 5 in each subgroup). Rabbits were given 8 drops of MnCl2 in 5 min intervals. The Mn2+ concentrations in the aqueous and vitreous humors were analyzed using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry at different time points. MEMRI scanning was carried out to image the visual pathway after 24 h. The corneal toxicity of Mn2+ was evaluated with corneal imaging and pathology slices. Results: Between the aqueous and vitreous humors, there was a 10 h lag for the peak Mn2+ concentration times. The intraocular Mn2+ concentration increased with the concentration gradients of Mn2+ and was higher in the epithelium-removed subgroup than that in the epithelium-intact subgroup. The enhancement of the visual pathway was achieved in the 0.10 mol/L and 0.20 mol/L epithelium-removed subgroups. The corresponding peak concentrations of Mn2+ were 5087 ± 666 ng/ml, 22920 ± 1188 ng/ml in the aqueous humor and 884 ± 78 ng/ml, 2556 ± 492 ng/ml in the vitreous body, respectively. Corneal injury was evident in the epithelium-removed and 0.20 mol/L epithelium-intact subgroups. Conclusions: The corneal epithelium is a barrier to Mn2+, and the iris and lens septum might be another intraocular barrier to the permeation of Mn2+. An elevated Mn2+ concentration contributes to the increased permeation of Mn2+, higher MEMRI signal, and corneal toxicity. The enhancement of the visual pathway requires an effective Mn2+ concentration in the vitreous body. PMID:27453232

Evaluation of different nitrous oxide production models with four continuous long-term wastewater treatment process data series.

PubMed

Spérandio, Mathieu; Pocquet, Mathieu; Guo, Lisha; Ni, Bing-Jie; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; Yuan, Zhiguo

2016-03-01

Five activated sludge models describing N2O production by ammonium oxidising bacteria (AOB) were compared to four different long-term process data sets. Each model considers one of the two known N2O production pathways by AOB, namely the AOB denitrification pathway and the hydroxylamine oxidation pathway, with specific kinetic expressions. Satisfactory calibration could be obtained in most cases, but none of the models was able to describe all the N2O data obtained in the different systems with a similar parameter set. Variability of the parameters can be related to difficulties related to undescribed local concentration heterogeneities, physiological adaptation of micro-organisms, a microbial population switch, or regulation between multiple AOB pathways. This variability could be due to a dependence of the N2O production pathways on the nitrite (or free nitrous acid-FNA) concentrations and other operational conditions in different systems. This work gives an overview of the potentialities and limits of single AOB pathway models. Indicating in which condition each single pathway model is likely to explain the experimental observations, this work will also facilitate future work on models in which the two main N2O pathways active in AOB are represented together.

Detergent sclerosants at sub-lytic concentrations induce endothelial cell apoptosis through a caspase dependent pathway.

PubMed

Cooley-Andrade, Osvaldo; Cheung, Kelvin; Chew, An-Ning; Connor, David Ewan; Parsi, Kurosh

2016-07-01

To investigate the apoptotic effects of detergent sclerosants sodium tetradecylsulphate (STS) and polidocanol (POL) on endothelial cells at sub-lytic concentrations. Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) were isolated and labelled with antibodies to assess for apoptosis and examined with confocal microscopy and flow cytometry. Isolated HUVECs viability was assessed using propidium iodide staining. Early apoptosis was determined by increased phosphatidylserine exposure by lactadherin binding. Caspase 3, 8, 9 and Bax activation as well as inhibitory assays with Pan Caspase (Z-VAD-FMK) and Bax (BI-6C9) were assessed to identify apoptotic pathways. Porimin activation was used to assess cell membrane permeability. Cell lysis reached almost 100 % with STS at 0.3 % and with POL at 0.6 %. Apoptosis was seen with both STS and POL at concentrations ranging from 0.075 to 0.15 %. PS exposure increased with both STS and POL and exhibited a dose-dependent trend. Active Caspase 3, 8 and 9 but not Bax were increased in HUVECs stimulated with low concentrations of both STS and POL. Inhibitory assays demonstrated Caspase 3, 8, 9 inhibition at low concentrations (0.075 to 0.6 %) with both STS and POL. Both agents increased the activation of porimin at all concentrations. Both sclerosants induced endothelial cell (EC) apoptosis at sub-lytic concentrations through a caspase-dependant pathway. Both agents induced EC oncosis.

A mathematical modelling approach to assessing the reliability of biomarkers of glutathione metabolism.

PubMed

Geenen, Suzanne; du Preez, Franco B; Reed, Michael; Nijhout, H Frederik; Kenna, J Gerry; Wilson, Ian D; Westerhoff, Hans V; Snoep, Jacky L

2012-07-16

One of the main pathways for the detoxification of reactive metabolites in the liver involves glutathione conjugation. Metabolic profiling studies have shown paradoxical responses in glutathione-related biochemical pathways. One of these is the increase in 5-oxoproline and ophthalmic acid concentrations with increased dosage of paracetamol. Experimental studies have thus far failed to resolve these paradoxes and the robustness of how these proposed biomarkers correlate with liver glutathione levels has been questioned. To better understand how these biomarkers behave in the glutathione system a kinetic model of this pathway was made. By using metabolic control analysis and by simulating biomarker levels under a variety of conditions, we found that 5-oxoproline and ophthalmic acid concentrations may not only depend on the glutathione but also on the methionine status of the cell. We show that neither of the two potential biomarkers are reliable on their own since they need additional information about the methionine status of the system to relate them uniquely to intracellular glutathione concentration. However, when both biomarkers are measured simultaneously a direct inference of the glutathione concentration can be made, irrespective of the methionine concentration in the system. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Teaching resources. Model of the TIR1 pathway for auxin-mediated gene expression.

PubMed

Laskowski, Marta

2006-02-14

Auxin mediates numerous plant responses, some of which have been shown to require transcriptional regulation. One auxin response pathway, which depends on the relief of transcriptional repression, is mediated by TIR1 (transport inhibitor response protein 1). TIR1 is an auxin receptor and also a subunit of an SCF-type ubiquitin ligase. In the presence of a low concentration of auxin in the nucleus, members of the Aux/IAA family of transcriptional repressors bind to ARF proteins and inhibit the transcription of specific auxin response genes. Increased nuclear concentrations of auxin promote auxin binding to TIR1, causing the Aux/IAA proteins to associate with TIR1 and leading to their degradation by a proteasome-mediated pathway. This decreases the concentration of Aux/IAA proteins in the nucleus and thereby enables the expression of certain auxin response genes.

Sum over Histories Representation for Kinetic Sensitivity Analysis: How Chemical Pathways Change When Reaction Rate Coefficients Are Varied

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bai, Shirong; Davis, Michael J.; Skodje, Rex T.

2015-11-12

The sensitivity of kinetic observables is analyzed using a newly developed sum over histories representation of chemical kinetics. In the sum over histories representation, the concentrations of the chemical species are decomposed into the sum of probabilities for chemical pathways that follow molecules from reactants to products or intermediates. Unlike static flux methods for reaction path analysis, the sum over histories approach includes the explicit time dependence of the pathway probabilities. Using the sum over histories representation, the sensitivity of an observable with respect to a kinetic parameter such as a rate coefficient is then analyzed in terms of howmore » that parameter affects the chemical pathway probabilities. The method is illustrated for species concentration target functions in H-2 combustion where the rate coefficients are allowed to vary over their associated uncertainty ranges. It is found that large sensitivities are often associated with rate limiting steps along important chemical pathways or by reactions that control the branching of reactive flux« less

Homocysteinemia in mice with genetic betaine homocysteine S-methyltransferase deficiency is independent of dietary folate intake.

PubMed

Teng, Ya-Wen; Cerdena, Ignacio; Zeisel, Steven H

2012-11-01

Elevated homocysteine (Hcy) concentrations are associated with increased risk of several chronic diseases. Hcy can be removed by methylating it to form methionine via either the betaine homocysteine S-methyltransferase (BHMT) or the methionine synthase (MS) pathway. BHMT uses betaine as the methyl donor, whereas MS uses 5-methyltetrahydrofolate. We previously found that mice with the gene encoding Bhmt deleted (Bhmt(-/-)) had altered Hcy metabolites in tissues. This study aimed to determine whether folate supplementation of Bhmt(-/-) mice reverses, and folate deficiency exacerbates, these metabolic changes. Bhmt(-/-) mice and their littermates (Bhmt(+/+) mice) were fed a folate-deficient (FD; 0 mg/kg diet), a folate control (FC; 2 mg/kg diet), or a folate-supplemented (FS; 20 mg/kg diet) diet for 4 wk. Bhmt(-/-) mice had higher plasma Hcy and hepatic S-adenosylhomocysteine (AdoHcy) concentrations and had lower hepatic S-adenosylmethionine (AdoMet) concentrations compared with Bhmt(+/+) mice for all diets. Although the FD diet increased plasma Hcy (P < 0.05) and hepatic AdoHcy (P < 0.001) concentrations in Bhmt(+/+) mice compared with FC and FS mice, the FD diet had no effect on the metabolites measured in Bhmt(-/-) mice. The FS diet did not ameliorate elevated plasma Hcy and elevated hepatic AdoHcy concentrations but did increase hepatic AdoMet concentrations in Bhmt(-/-) mice (P < 0.001) compared with FD and FC mice. We conclude that the BHMT pathway is a major route for the elimination of Hcy in mice and that the MS pathway has little excess capacity to methylate the Hcy that accumulates when the BHMT pathway is blocked.

The selective control of glycolysis, gluconeogenesis and glycogenesis by temporal insulin patterns.

PubMed

Noguchi, Rei; Kubota, Hiroyuki; Yugi, Katsuyuki; Toyoshima, Yu; Komori, Yasunori; Soga, Tomoyoshi; Kuroda, Shinya

2013-05-14

Insulin governs systemic glucose metabolism, including glycolysis, gluconeogenesis and glycogenesis, through temporal change and absolute concentration. However, how insulin-signalling pathway selectively regulates glycolysis, gluconeogenesis and glycogenesis remains to be elucidated. To address this issue, we experimentally measured metabolites in glucose metabolism in response to insulin. Step stimulation of insulin induced transient response of glycolysis and glycogenesis, and sustained response of gluconeogenesis and extracellular glucose concentration (GLC(ex)). Based on the experimental results, we constructed a simple computational model that characterises response of insulin-signalling-dependent glucose metabolism. The model revealed that the network motifs of glycolysis and glycogenesis pathways constitute a feedforward (FF) with substrate depletion and incoherent feedforward loop (iFFL), respectively, enabling glycolysis and glycogenesis responsive to temporal changes of insulin rather than its absolute concentration. In contrast, the network motifs of gluconeogenesis pathway constituted a FF inhibition, enabling gluconeogenesis responsive to absolute concentration of insulin regardless of its temporal patterns. GLC(ex) was regulated by gluconeogenesis and glycolysis. These results demonstrate the selective control mechanism of glucose metabolism by temporal patterns of insulin.

The selective control of glycolysis, gluconeogenesis and glycogenesis by temporal insulin patterns

PubMed Central

Noguchi, Rei; Kubota, Hiroyuki; Yugi, Katsuyuki; Toyoshima, Yu; Komori, Yasunori; Soga, Tomoyoshi; Kuroda, Shinya

2013-01-01

Insulin governs systemic glucose metabolism, including glycolysis, gluconeogenesis and glycogenesis, through temporal change and absolute concentration. However, how insulin-signalling pathway selectively regulates glycolysis, gluconeogenesis and glycogenesis remains to be elucidated. To address this issue, we experimentally measured metabolites in glucose metabolism in response to insulin. Step stimulation of insulin induced transient response of glycolysis and glycogenesis, and sustained response of gluconeogenesis and extracellular glucose concentration (GLCex). Based on the experimental results, we constructed a simple computational model that characterises response of insulin-signalling-dependent glucose metabolism. The model revealed that the network motifs of glycolysis and glycogenesis pathways constitute a feedforward (FF) with substrate depletion and incoherent feedforward loop (iFFL), respectively, enabling glycolysis and glycogenesis responsive to temporal changes of insulin rather than its absolute concentration. In contrast, the network motifs of gluconeogenesis pathway constituted a FF inhibition, enabling gluconeogenesis responsive to absolute concentration of insulin regardless of its temporal patterns. GLCex was regulated by gluconeogenesis and glycolysis. These results demonstrate the selective control mechanism of glucose metabolism by temporal patterns of insulin. PMID:23670537

Conversations at the Threshold: Collaboratively Navigating Post-High School Pathways with Local and Bureaucratic Literacies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weissman, Kabeera M.

2012-01-01

This study focused on exploring and creating life pathways with a group of twelfth graders at West Philadelphia High School. I invited students to inquire into "life pathways," broadly construed; participants chose to concentrate on transitions to college. Although scholars have investigated many elements of college access, there is…

High concentrations of atmospheric ammonia induce alterations of gene expression in the breast muscle of broilers (Gallus gallus) based on RNA-Seq.

PubMed

Yi, Bao; Chen, Liang; Sa, Renna; Zhong, Ruqing; Xing, Huan; Zhang, Hongfu

2016-08-11

High concentrations of atmospheric ammonia are one of the key environmental stressors affecting broiler production performance, which causes remarkable economic losses as well as potential welfare problems of the broiler industry. Previous reports demonstrated that high levels of ammonia altered body fat distribution and meat quality of broilers. However, the molecular mechanisms and metabolic pathways in breast muscle altered by high concentrations of ambient ammonia exposure on broilers are still unknown. This study utilized RNA-Seq to compare the transcriptomes of breast muscles to identify differentially enriched genes in broilers exposed to high and low concentrations of atmospheric ammonia. A total of 267 promising candidate genes were identified by differential expression analysis, among which 67 genes were up-regulated and 189 genes were down-regulated. Bioinformatics analysis suggested that the up and down-regulation of these genes were involved in the following two categories of cellular pathways and metabolisms: Steroid biosynthesis (gga00100) and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) signaling pathway (gga03320), which both participated in the lipid metabolism processes. This study suggests that longtime exposure to high concentrations of aerial ammonia can change fat content in breast muscle, meat quality and palatability via altering expression level of genes participating in important lipid metabolism pathways. These findings have provided novel insights into our understanding of molecular mechanisms of breast muscles exposed to ammonia in broilers. This study provides new information that could be used for genetic breeding and nutritional intervention in production practice of broilers industry in the future.

Simulating Chemical Kinetics Without Differential Equations: A Quantitative Theory Based on Chemical Pathways.

PubMed

Bai, Shirong; Skodje, Rex T

2017-08-17

A new approach is presented for simulating the time-evolution of chemically reactive systems. This method provides an alternative to conventional modeling of mass-action kinetics that involves solving differential equations for the species concentrations. The method presented here avoids the need to solve the rate equations by switching to a representation based on chemical pathways. In the Sum Over Histories Representation (or SOHR) method, any time-dependent kinetic observable, such as concentration, is written as a linear combination of probabilities for chemical pathways leading to a desired outcome. In this work, an iterative method is introduced that allows the time-dependent pathway probabilities to be generated from a knowledge of the elementary rate coefficients, thus avoiding the pitfalls involved in solving the differential equations of kinetics. The method is successfully applied to the model Lotka-Volterra system and to a realistic H 2 combustion model.

Relative Contributions of Agricultural Drift, Para-Occupational ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background: Increased pesticide concentrations in house dust in agricultural areas have been attributed to several exposure pathways, including agricultural drift, para-occupational, and residential use. Objective: To guide future exposure assessment efforts, we quantified relative contributions of these pathways using meta-regression models of published data on dust pesticide concentrations. Methods: From studies in North American agricultural areas published from 1995-2015, we abstracted dust pesticide concentrations reported as summary statistics (e.g., geometric means (GM)). We analyzed these data using mixed-effects meta-regression models that weighted each summary statistic by its inverse variance. Dependent variables were either the log-transformed GM (drift) or the log-transformed ratio of GMs from two groups (para-occupational, residential use). Results: For the drift pathway, predicted GMs decreased sharply and nonlinearly, with GMs 64% lower in homes 250 m versus 23 m from fields (inter-quartile range of published data) based on 52 statistics from 7 studies. For the para-occupational pathway, GMs were 2.3 times higher (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5-3.3; 15 statistics, 5 studies) in homes of farmers who applied pesticides more versus less recently or frequently. For the residential use pathway, GMs were 1.3 (95%CI: 1.1-1.4) and 1.5 (95%CI: 1.2-1.9) times higher in treated versus untreated homes, when the probability that a pesticide was used for

New Insights into the Compositional Dependence of Li-Ion Transport in Polymer-Ceramic Composite Electrolytes.

PubMed

Zheng, Jin; Hu, Yan-Yan

2018-01-31

Composite electrolytes are widely studied for their potential in realizing improved ionic conductivity and electrochemical stability. Understanding the complex mechanisms of ion transport within composites is critical for effectively designing high-performance solid electrolytes. This study examines the compositional dependence of the three determining factors for ionic conductivity, including ion mobility, ion transport pathways, and active ion concentration. The results show that with increase in the fraction of ceramic Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO) phase in the LLZO-poly(ethylene oxide) composites, ion mobility decreases, ion transport pathways transit from polymer to ceramic routes, and the active ion concentration increases. These changes in ion mobility, transport pathways, and concentration collectively explain the observed trend of ionic conductivity in composite electrolytes. Liquid additives alter ion transport pathways and increase ion mobility, thus enhancing ionic conductivity significantly. It is also found that a higher content of LLZO leads to improved electrochemical stability of composite electrolytes. This study provides insight into the recurring observations of compositional dependence of ionic conductivity in current composite electrolytes and pinpoints the intrinsic limitations of composite electrolytes in achieving fast ion conduction.

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland - bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezghani, Abdelkader; Dobler, Andreas; Haugen, Jan Erik; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Parding, Kajsa M.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Kardel, Ignacy; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2017-11-01

The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections - Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km × 5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971-2000) and two future horizons (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic seasonal bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021-2050 and by 2 °C until 2071-2100 assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario, this can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071-2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent, exhibiting spatial variations which depend on the selected season, location, future horizon, and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between -7 % (projected for summer assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario) and +40 % (projected for winter assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. The CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d.

Advanced glycation end products and sorbitol in blood from differently compensated diabetic dogs.

PubMed

Comazzi, S; Bertazzolo, W; Bonfanti, U; Spagnolo, V; Sartorelli, P

2008-06-01

Canine diabetes mellitus (DM) is a common metabolic disorder with long term complications, most of which are caused by glycosylation of structural proteins, decreases in antioxidant concentrations, altered osmotic balance and hypoxia due to impaired oxygen transport. Previous studies have demonstrated that under hyperglycemic conditions canine erythrocytes undergo swelling, probably due to activation of the polyol pathway. The present work aimed to assess the plasma concentration of advanced glycation end (AGE) products, stable Amadori-products generated by non-enzymatic glycosylation of proteins and the intracellular concentration of sorbitol, produced by the activation of polyol pathway in 34 blood samples from diabetic dogs and in 14 controls. AGE products were significantly higher (p<0.01) in plasma from diabetic dogs compared with control animals. The sorbitol concentration in erythrocytes was also significantly higher in diabetic dogs and, in particular, in poorly compensated animals and in dogs with ketonuria. In five cases that were analysed before and after clinical improvement, sorbitol concentration was found to correlate with improvement. These results suggest that non-specific glycosylation is increased and that the polyol pathway is activated in diabetic dogs in a manner that is proportionate to the severity of disease. Moreover, the concentration of AGE products and sorbitol may be useful for monitoring the onset of diabetic complications and assessing the most appropriate therapeutic approaches for management of canine DM.

The ERK/CREB pathway is involved in the c-Ski expression induced by low TGF-β1 concentrations during primary fibroblast proliferation.

PubMed

Li, Ping; Liu, Ping; Peng, Yan; Zhang, Zhuo-Hang; Li, Xiao-Ming; Xiong, Ren-Ping; Chen, Xing; Zhao, Yan; Ning, Ya-Lei; Yang, Nan; Zhang, Bo; Zhou, Yuan-Guo

2018-06-27

Increasing evidence has suggested that bidirectional regulation of cell proliferation is one important effect of TGF-β1 in wound healing. Increased c-Ski expression plays a role in promoting fibroblast proliferation at low TGF-β1 concentrations, but the mechanism by which low TGF-β1 concentrations regulate c-Ski levels remains unclear. In this study, the proliferation of rat primary fibroblasts was assessed with an ELISA BrdU kit. The mRNA and protein expression and phosphorylation levels of corresponding factors were measured by RT-qPCR, immunohistochemistry or Western blotting. We first found that low TGF-β1 concentrations not only promoted c-Ski mRNA and protein expression in rat primary fibroblasts but also increased the phosphorylation levels of Extracellular Signal-Regulated Kinases (ERK) and cAMP response element binding (CREB) protein. An ERK kinase (mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase, MEK) inhibitor significantly inhibited ERK1/2 phosphorylation levels, markedly reducing c-Ski expression and CREB phosphorylation levels and abrogating the growth-promoting effect of low TGF-β1 concentrations. At the same time, Smad2/3 phosphorylation levels were not significantly changed. Taken together, these results suggest that the increased cell proliferation induced by low TGF-β1 concentrations mediates c-Ski expression potentially through the ERK/CREB pathway rather than through the classic TGF-β1/Smad pathway.

Adrenocortical Hormone Abnormalities in Men with Chronic Prostatitis/Chronic Pelvic Pain Syndrome

PubMed Central

Dimitrakov, Jordan; Joffe, Hylton V.; Soldin, Steven J.; Bolus, Roger; Buffington, C.A. Tony; Nickel, J Curtis

2007-01-01

Objectives To identify adrenocortical hormone abnormalities as indicators of endocrine dysfunction in CP/CPPS. Methods We simultaneously measured the serum concentrations of 12 steroids in CP/CPPS and control patients, using isotope dilution liquid chromatography followed by atmospheric pressure photospray ionization and tandem mass spectrometry. Results Twenty-seven CP/CPPS patients and 29 age-matched asymptomatic healthy controls were evaluated. In the mineralocorticoid pathway, progesterone was significantly higher, whereas corticosterone and aldosterone concentrations were significantly lower, in CP/CPPS than in controls. In the glucocorticoid pathway, 11-deoxycortisol was significantly lower, and cortisol concentrations were not different between patients and controls. In the sex steroid pathway, androstenedione and testosterone concentrations were significantly higher in CP/CPPS than in controls. Estradiol, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) concentrations were not different between patients and controls. NIH-CPSI total and pain domain scores correlated positively with 17-hydroxyprogesterone and aldosterone (P<0.001) and negatively with cortisol concentrations (P<0.001). Conclusions Results suggest reduced activity of CYP21A2 (P450c21), the enzyme that converts progesterone to corticosterone, and 17-hydroxyprogesterone to 11-deoxycortisol. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the biological basis of CP/CPPS. Follow-up studies should explore the possibility that CP/CPPS patients meet the diagnostic criteria for nonclassical CAH and if hormonal findings improve or worsen in parallel with symptom severity. PMID:18308097

Soil Nitrification and N2O Production: the connection with N concentration and Soil Water Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu-Barker, X.; Horwath, W. R.

2016-12-01

The development of mitigation strategies to reduce nitrous oxide (N2O) emission from soils is dependent on explicating the biophysical factors affecting different N2O production pathways. Ammonia oxidation and heterotrophic denitrification are the main pathways of N2O production, depending on soil conditions such as soil moisture content, oxygen (O2) content and N substrate. Many researchers have reported that N2O production increased as substrate concentration and soil moisture content increased. However, less understood is how N fertilizer concentration and moisture content interact to affect N2O production pathways. To investigate interaction and its effect on O2 consumption, we incubated three agricultural soils (clay, sandy loam, and peat) with different concentrations of (NH4)2SO4 (0-1000 µg N g-1) under 50 %, 75%, and 100% of water holding capacity. All treatments received 15N -KNO3 to bring the concentrations of NO3-_N in soils to 50 mg kg-1 soil and the NO3- pool to an enrichment of 10 atom% 15N. In all soils, the total amount of O2 consumption and N2O production increased as soil ammonical N concentration increased. The increased soil moisture significantly promoted N2O production in sandy loam and clay loam soils, compared to the peat soil. These results indicate that N2O production increased as substrate concentration increased likely due to the onset of O2 limitation caused by ammonia oxidation.

A mathematical model of the mevalonate cholesterol biosynthesis pathway.

PubMed

Pool, Frances; Currie, Richard; Sweby, Peter K; Salazar, José Domingo; Tindall, Marcus J

2018-04-14

We formulate, parameterise and analyse a mathematical model of the mevalonate pathway, a key pathway in the synthesis of cholesterol. Of high clinical importance, the pathway incorporates rate limiting enzymatic reactions with multiple negative feedbacks. In this work we investigate the pathway dynamics and demonstrate that rate limiting steps and negative feedbacks within it act in concert to tightly regulate intracellular cholesterol levels. Formulated using the theory of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and parameterised in the context of a hepatocyte, the governing equations are analysed numerically and analytically. Sensitivity and mathematical analysis demonstrate the importance of the two rate limiting enzymes 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase and squalene synthase in controlling the concentration of substrates within the pathway as well as that of cholesterol. The role of individual feedbacks, both global (between that of cholesterol and sterol regulatory element-binding protein 2; SREBP-2) and local internal (between substrates in the pathway) are investigated. We find that whilst the cholesterol SREBP-2 feedback regulates the overall system dynamics, local feedbacks activate within the pathway to tightly regulate the overall cellular cholesterol concentration. The network stability is analysed by constructing a reduced model of the full pathway and is shown to exhibit one real, stable steady-state. We close by addressing the biological question as to how farnesyl-PP levels are affected by CYP51 inhibition, and demonstrate that the regulatory mechanisms within the network work in unison to ensure they remain bounded. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Issue Paper on Metal Exposure Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This paper explores the best approaches for characterizing exposure pathways and routes, estimating the most relevant exposure concentrations, linking exposure to dose, and coping with natural or background concentrations.

IL-1β-induced and p38MAPK-dependent activation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase-activated protein kinase 2 (MK2) in hepatocytes: Signal transduction with robust and concentration-independent signal amplification

PubMed Central

Kulawik, Andreas; Engesser, Raphael; Ehlting, Christian; Raue, Andreas; Albrecht, Ute; Hahn, Bettina; Lehmann, Wolf-Dieter; Gaestel, Matthias; Klingmüller, Ursula; Häussinger, Dieter; Timmer, Jens; Bode, Johannes G.

2017-01-01

The IL-1β induced activation of the p38MAPK/MAPK-activated protein kinase 2 (MK2) pathway in hepatocytes is important for control of the acute phase response and regulation of liver regeneration. Many aspects of the regulatory relevance of this pathway have been investigated in immune cells in the context of inflammation. However, very little is known about concentration-dependent activation kinetics and signal propagation in hepatocytes and the role of MK2. We established a mathematical model for IL-1β-induced activation of the p38MAPK/MK2 pathway in hepatocytes that was calibrated to quantitative data on time- and IL-1β concentration-dependent phosphorylation of p38MAPK and MK2 in primary mouse hepatocytes. This analysis showed that, in hepatocytes, signal transduction from IL-1β via p38MAPK to MK2 is characterized by strong signal amplification. Quantification of p38MAPK and MK2 revealed that, in hepatocytes, at maximum, 11.3% of p38MAPK molecules and 36.5% of MK2 molecules are activated in response to IL-1β. The mathematical model was experimentally validated by employing phosphatase inhibitors and the p38MAPK inhibitor SB203580. Model simulations predicted an IC50 of 1–1.2 μm for SB203580 in hepatocytes. In silico analyses and experimental validation demonstrated that the kinase activity of p38MAPK determines signal amplitude, whereas phosphatase activity affects both signal amplitude and duration. p38MAPK and MK2 concentrations and responsiveness toward IL-1β were quantitatively compared between hepatocytes and macrophages. In macrophages, the absolute p38MAPK and MK2 concentration was significantly higher. Finally, in line with experimental observations, the mathematical model predicted a significantly higher half-maximal effective concentration for IL-1β-induced pathway activation in macrophages compared with hepatocytes, underscoring the importance of cell type-specific differences in pathway regulation. PMID:28223354

A review of soil cadmium contamination in China including a health risk assessment.

PubMed

Wang, Lin; Cui, Xiangfen; Cheng, Hongguang; Chen, Fei; Wang, Jiantong; Zhao, Xinyi; Lin, Chunye; Pu, Xiao

2015-11-01

Cadmium (Cd) is one of the most serious soil contaminants in China, and it poses an increasing risk to human health as large amounts of Cd are emitted into the environment. However, knowledge about soil Cd concentrations and the human health risks of these concentrations at a national scale is limited. In this study, we conducted a review of 190 articles about soil Cd concentrations during 2001 to 2010. The study involved 146 cities in China, and we quantified the risks to human health according to different regions. The results showed that elevated Cd levels were present compared to the background value of soil in 1990, and the soil Cd concentrations in the Guangxi province exceeded even the class III Soil Environmental Quality standard, which is the limit for the normal growth of plants. The Chinese soil Cd concentrations ranged from 0.003 mg kg(-1) to 9.57 mg kg(-1). The soil Cd concentrations had the following trend: northwest > southwest > south central > east > northeast > north. The sources of soil Cd are mainly from smelting, mining, waste disposal, fertilizer and pesticide application, and vehicle exhaust, etc. but differentiated in various regions. The soil Cd contamination in urban areas was more serious than contamination in the agricultural areas. Currently, there is no significant non-carcinogenic risk in any of the provinces. Regarding the different exposure pathways, the dermal pathway is the primary source of soil Cd exposure, and the risk associated with this pathway is generally hundreds of times higher than the risk for an ingestion pathway. For most of the provinces, the health risk to the urban population was higher than the risk to the rural population. For each population, the carcinogenic risk was less than 10(-6) in most of the provinces, except for the urban population in the Hunan province. If the other exposure pathways are fully considered, then the people in these areas may have a higher carcinogenic risk. This review provides a comprehensive assessment of soil Cd pollution in China, and it identifies policy recommendations for pollution mitigation and environmental management in the relevant regions.

The combined effect of dissolved oxygen and nitrite on N2O production by ammonia oxidizing bacteria in an enriched nitrifying sludge.

PubMed

Peng, Lai; Ni, Bing-Jie; Ye, Liu; Yuan, Zhiguo

2015-04-15

Both nitrite [Formula: see text] and dissolved oxygen (DO) play important roles in nitrous oxide (N2O) production by ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB). However, few studies focused on the combined effect of them on N2O production by AOB as well as the corresponding mechanisms. In this study, N2O production by an enriched nitrifying sludge, consisting of both AOB and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB), was investigated under various [Formula: see text] and DO concentrations. At each investigated DO level, both the biomass specific N2O production rate and the N2O emission factor (the ratio between N2O nitrogen emitted and the ammonium nitrogen converted) increased as [Formula: see text] concentration increased from 3 mg N/L to 50 mg N/L. However, at each investigated [Formula: see text] level, the maximum biomass specific N2O production rate occurred at DO of 0.85 mg O2/L, while the N2O emission factor decreased as DO increased from 0.35 to 3.5 mg O2/L. The analysis of the process data using a mathematical N2O model incorporating both the AOB denitrification and hydroxylamine (NH2OH) oxidation pathways indicated that the contribution of AOB denitrification pathway increased as [Formula: see text] concentration increased, but decreased as DO concentration increased, accompanied by a corresponding change in the contribution of NH2OH oxidation pathway to N2O production. The AOB denitrification pathway was predominant in most cases, with the NH2OH oxidation pathway making a comparable contribution only at high DO level (e.g. 3.5 mg O2/L). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the flux of metabolites in the juvenile hormone biosynthesis pathway using generalized additive models and ordinary differential equations.

PubMed

Martínez-Rincón, Raúl O; Rivera-Pérez, Crisalejandra; Diambra, Luis; Noriega, Fernando G

2017-01-01

Juvenile hormone (JH) regulates development and reproductive maturation in insects. The corpora allata (CA) from female adult mosquitoes synthesize fluctuating levels of JH, which have been linked to the ovarian development and are influenced by nutritional signals. The rate of JH biosynthesis is controlled by the rate of flux of isoprenoids in the pathway, which is the outcome of a complex interplay of changes in precursor pools and enzyme levels. A comprehensive study of the changes in enzymatic activities and precursor pool sizes have been previously reported for the mosquito Aedes aegypti JH biosynthesis pathway. In the present studies, we used two different quantitative approaches to describe and predict how changes in the individual metabolic reactions in the pathway affect JH synthesis. First, we constructed generalized additive models (GAMs) that described the association between changes in specific metabolite concentrations with changes in enzymatic activities and substrate concentrations. Changes in substrate concentrations explained 50% or more of the model deviances in 7 of the 13 metabolic steps analyzed. Addition of information on enzymatic activities almost always improved the fitness of GAMs built solely based on substrate concentrations. GAMs were validated using experimental data that were not included when the model was built. In addition, a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) was developed to describe the instantaneous changes in metabolites as a function of the levels of enzymatic catalytic activities. The results demonstrated the ability of the models to predict changes in the flux of metabolites in the JH pathway, and can be used in the future to design and validate experimental manipulations of JH synthesis.

Selection for rapid embryo development correlates with embryo exposure to maternal androgens among passerine birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwabl, H.; Palacios, M.G.; Martin, T.E.

2007-01-01

Greater offspring predation favors evolution of faster development among species. We hypothesized that greater offspring predation exerts selection on mothers to increase levels of anabolic androgens in egg yolks to achieve faster development. Here, we tested whether (1) concentrations of yolk androgens in passerine species were associated with offspring predation and (2) embryo and nestling development rates were associated with yolk androgen concentrations. We examined three androgens that increase in potency along the synthesis pathway: androstenedione (A4) to testosterone (T) to 5??- dihydrotestosterone (5??-DHT). Concentrations of none of these steroids were related to clutch size; only A4 was allometrically related to egg volume. Species that experience greater predation showed higher yolk concentrations of T and 5??-DHT. Higher concentrations of T and particularly 5??-DHT were strongly correlated with faster development during the embryo period and less so during the nestling period. Development rates were most strongly correlated with 5??-DHT, suggesting that potency increases along the androgen synthesis pathway and that effects are mediated by the androgen receptor pathway. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that selection for faster development by time-dependent offspring mortality may be achieved epigenetically by varying embryo exposure to maternal anabolic steroids. ?? 2007 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

Benzo[a]pyrene affects Jurkat T cells in the activated state via the antioxidant response element dependent Nrf2 pathway leading to decreased IL-2 secretion and redirecting glutamine metabolism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murugaiyan, Jayaseelan; Rockstroh, Maxie; Wagner, Juliane

2013-06-15

There is a clear evidence that environmental pollutants, such as benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P), can have detrimental effects on the immune system, whereas the underlying mechanisms still remain elusive. Jurkat T cells share many properties with native T lymphocytes and therefore are an appropriate model to analyze the effects of environmental pollutants on T cells and their activation. Since environmental compounds frequently occur at low, not acute toxic concentrations, we analyzed the effects of two subtoxic concentrations, 50 nM and 5 μM, on non- and activated cells. B[a]P interferes directly with the stimulation process as proven by an altered IL-2 secretion. Furthermore,more » B[a]P exposure results in significant proteomic changes as shown by DIGE analysis. Pathway analysis revealed an involvement of the AhR independent Nrf2 pathway in the altered processes observed in unstimulated and stimulated cells. A participation of the Nrf2 pathway in the change of IL-2 secretion was confirmed by exposing cells to the Nrf2 activator tBHQ. tBHQ and 5 μM B[a]P caused similar alterations of IL-2 secretion and glutamine/glutamate metabolism. Moreover, the proteome changes in unstimulated cells point towards a modified regulation of the cytoskeleton and cellular stress response, which was proven by western blotting. Additionally, there is a strong evidence for alterations in metabolic pathways caused by B[a]P exposure in stimulated cells. Especially the glutamine/glutamate metabolism was indicated by proteome pathway analysis and validated by metabolite measurements. The detrimental effects were slightly enhanced in stimulated cells, suggesting that stimulated cells are more vulnerable to the environmental pollutant model compound B[a]P. - Highlights: • B[a]P affects the proteome of Jurkat T cells also at low concentrations. • Exposure to B[a]P (50 nM, 5 μM) did not change Jurkat T cell viability. • Both B[a]P concentrations altered the IL-2 secretion of stimulated cells. • 608 different protein spots of Jurkat T cells were quantified using 2-DE-DIGE. • Pathway analysis identified Nrf2 and AhR pathway as regulated.« less

Adaptive Landscapes of Resistance Genes Change as Antibiotic Concentrations Change.

PubMed

Mira, Portia M; Meza, Juan C; Nandipati, Anna; Barlow, Miriam

2015-10-01

Most studies on the evolution of antibiotic resistance are focused on selection for resistance at lethal antibiotic concentrations, which has allowed the detection of mutant strains that show strong phenotypic traits. However, solely focusing on lethal concentrations of antibiotics narrowly limits our perspective of antibiotic resistance evolution. New high-resolution competition assays have shown that resistant bacteria are selected at relatively low concentrations of antibiotics. This finding is important because sublethal concentrations of antibiotics are found widely in patients undergoing antibiotic therapies, and in nonmedical conditions such as wastewater treatment plants, and food and water used in agriculture and farming. To understand the impacts of sublethal concentrations on selection, we measured 30 adaptive landscapes for a set of TEM β-lactamases containing all combinations of the four amino acid substitutions that exist in TEM-50 for 15 β-lactam antibiotics at multiple concentrations. We found that there are many evolutionary pathways within this collection of landscapes that lead to nearly every TEM-genotype that we studied. While it is known that the pathways change depending on the type of β-lactam, this study demonstrates that the landscapes including fitness optima also change dramatically as the concentrations of antibiotics change. Based on these results we conclude that the presence of multiple concentrations of β-lactams in an environment result in many different adaptive landscapes through which pathways to nearly every genotype are available. Ultimately this may increase the diversity of genotypes in microbial populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Salt stress signals shape the plant root.

PubMed

Galvan-Ampudia, Carlos S; Testerink, Christa

2011-06-01

Plants use different strategies to deal with high soil salinity. One strategy is activation of pathways that allow the plant to export or compartmentalise salt. Relying on their phenotypic plasticity, plants can also adjust their root system architecture (RSA) and the direction of root growth to avoid locally high salt concentrations. Here, we highlight RSA responses to salt and osmotic stress and the underlying mechanisms. A model is presented that describes how salinity affects auxin distribution in the root. Possible intracellular signalling pathways linking salinity to root development and direction of root growth are discussed. These involve perception of high cytosolic Na+ concentrations in the root, activation of lipid signalling and protein kinase activity and modulation of endocytic pathways. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clostridium perfringens Phospholipase C Induced ROS Production and Cytotoxicity Require PKC, MEK1 and NFκB Activation

PubMed Central

Monturiol-Gross, Laura; Flores-Díaz, Marietta; Pineda-Padilla, Maria Jose; Castro-Castro, Ana Cristina; Alape-Giron, Alberto

2014-01-01

Clostridium perfringens phospholipase C (CpPLC), also called α-toxin, is the most toxic extracellular enzyme produced by this bacteria and is essential for virulence in gas gangrene. At lytic concentrations, CpPLC causes membrane disruption, whereas at sublytic concentrations this toxin causes oxidative stress and activates the MEK/ERK pathway, which contributes to its cytotoxic and myotoxic effects. In the present work, the role of PKC, ERK 1/2 and NFκB signalling pathways in ROS generation induced by CpPLC and their contribution to CpPLC-induced cytotoxicity was evaluated. The results demonstrate that CpPLC induces ROS production through PKC, MEK/ERK and NFκB pathways, the latter being activated by the MEK/ERK signalling cascade. Inhibition of either of these signalling pathways prevents CpPLC's cytotoxic effect. In addition, it was demonstrated that NFκB inhibition leads to a significant reduction in the myotoxicity induced by intramuscular injection of CpPLC in mice. Understanding the role of these signalling pathways could lead towards developing rational therapeutic strategies aimed to reduce cell death during a clostridialmyonecrosis. PMID:24466113

Noise characteristics of the Escherichia coli rotary motor

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The chemotaxis pathway in the bacterium Escherichia coli allows cells to detect changes in external ligand concentration (e.g. nutrients). The pathway regulates the flagellated rotary motors and hence the cells' swimming behaviour, steering them towards more favourable environments. While the molecular components are well characterised, the motor behaviour measured by tethered cell experiments has been difficult to interpret. Results We study the effects of sensing and signalling noise on the motor behaviour. Specifically, we consider fluctuations stemming from ligand concentration, receptor switching between their signalling states, adaptation, modification of proteins by phosphorylation, and motor switching between its two rotational states. We develop a model which includes all signalling steps in the pathway, and discuss a simplified version, which captures the essential features of the full model. We find that the noise characteristics of the motor contain signatures from all these processes, albeit with varying magnitudes. Conclusions Our analysis allows us to address how cell-to-cell variation affects motor behaviour and the question of optimal pathway design. A similar comprehensive analysis can be applied to other two-component signalling pathways. PMID:21951560

A non-capacitative pathway activated by arachidonic acid is the major Ca2+ entry mechanism in rat A7r5 smooth muscle cells stimulated with low concentrations of vasopressin

PubMed Central

Broad, Lisa M; Cannon, Toby R; Taylor, Colin W

1999-01-01

Depletion of the Ca2+ stores of A7r5 cells stimulated Ca2+, though not Sr2+, entry. Vasopressin (AVP) or platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) stimulated Sr2+ entry. The cells therefore express a capacitative pathway activated by empty stores and a non-capacitative pathway stimulated by receptors; only the former is permeable to Mn2+ and only the latter to Sr2+. Neither empty stores nor inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (InsP3) binding to its receptors are required for activation of the non-capacitative pathway, because microinjection of cells with heparin prevented PDGF-evoked Ca2+ mobilization but not Sr2+ entry. Low concentrations of Gd3+ irreversibly blocked capacitative Ca2+ entry without affecting AVP-evoked Sr2+ entry. After inhibition of the capacitative pathway with Gd3+, AVP evoked a substantial increase in cytosolic [Ca2+], confirming that the non-capacitative pathway can evoke a significant increase in cytosolic [Ca2+]. Arachidonic acid mimicked the effect of AVP on Sr2+ entry without stimulating Mn2+ entry; the Sr2+ entry was inhibited by 100 μM Gd3+, but not by 1 μM Gd3+ which completely inhibited capacitative Ca2+ entry. The effects of arachidonic acid did not require its metabolism. AVP-evoked Sr2+ entry was unaffected by isotetrandrine, an inhibitor of G protein-coupled phospholipase A2. U73122, an inhibitor of phosphoinositidase C, inhibited AVP-evoked formation of inositol phosphates and Sr2+ entry. The effects of phorbol esters and Ro31-8220 (a protein kinase C inhibitor) established that protein kinase C did not mediate the effects of AVP on the non-capacitative pathway. An inhibitor of diacylglycerol lipase, RHC-80267, inhibited AVP-evoked Sr2+ entry without affecting capacitative Ca2+ entry or release of Ca2+ stores. Selective inhibition of capacitative Ca2+ entry with Gd3+ revealed that the non-capacitative pathway is the major route for the Ca2+ entry evoked by low AVP concentrations. We conclude that in A7r5 cells, the Ca2+ entry evoked by low concentrations of AVP is mediated largely by a non-capacitative pathway directly regulated by arachidonic acid produced by the sequential activities of phosphoinositidase C and diacylglycerol lipase. PMID:10226154

Food chain transfer of selenium in lentic and lotic habitats of a western Canadian watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orr, P.L.; Guiguer, K.R.; Russel, C.K.

2006-02-15

Selenium (Se) is an essential micronutrient, exhibiting a narrow margin between nutritionally optimal and potentially toxic concentrations. Egg-laying vertebrates at the top of aquatic food chains are most at risk in environments with elevated aqueous Se concentrations. The Elk River watershed in British Columbia, Canada receives effluents containing Se from five coal mine operations. This study tested three hypotheses that might account for higher Se concentrations in fish from lentic compared to lotic habitats in the watershed: (1) enhanced uptake by aquatic primary producers, (2) longer food chain length, or (3) greater food web accumulation through sediment-detrital pathways. Stable isotopemore » and Se concentration data demonstrated that Se concentrations in aquatic primary producers and food chain lengths were comparable in lentic and lotic habitats. Enhanced formation of organoselenium and subsequent uptake and cycling via sediment detrital pathways likely account for higher fish tissue Se concentrations in lentic than in lotic areas.« less

Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy vulnerabilities under large uncertainty about the future socio-economic and climatic changes and to guide policymakers in charting a more sustainable pathway and avoiding maladaptive development pathways. The results show that water scarcity is increasing in up to 83% of all land area under a high-emission scenario (RCP 6.0-SSP3). Importantly, the range of uncertainty in projected water scarcity is increasing; in some regions by several orders of magnitude (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa, eastern Europe, Central Asia). This is further illustrated by focusing on a set of large river basins that will be subject both to substantial changes in basin-wide water scarcity and to strong increases in the overall range of uncertainty (e.g. the Niger, Indus, Yangtze). These conditions pose a significant challenge for water management options in those vulnerable basins, complicating decisions on needed investments in water supply infrastructure and other system improvements, and leading to the degradation of valuable resources such as non-renewable groundwater resources and water-dependent ecosystems. The results of this study call for careful and deliberative design of water policy interventions under a wide range of socio-economic and climate conditions.

Conceptual Model Scenarios for the Vapor Intrusion Pathway

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This report provides simplified simulation examples to illustrate graphically how subsurface conditions and building-specific characteristics determine the distribution chemical distribution and indoor air concentration relative to a source concentration.

Isolation and purification of C3 from human plasma.

PubMed

O'Rear, L D; Ross, G D

2001-05-01

The alternative pathway of complement shares its terminal components (C3 and C5 through 9) with the classical pathway, but has several unique components, including factors D, B, and P (properdin). This unit presents methods for assaying total alternative pathway activity and the activity of factors B and D. Radial immunodiffusion (RID) can also be used to measure factor D, B, and P concentrations.

Transcriptome and key genes expression related to carbon fixation pathways in Chlorella PY-ZU1 cells and their growth under high concentrations of CO2.

PubMed

Huang, Yun; Cheng, Jun; Lu, Hongxiang; He, Yong; Zhou, Junhu; Cen, Kefa

2017-01-01

The biomass yield of Chlorella PY-ZU1 drastically increased when cultivated under high CO 2 condition compared with that cultivated under air condition. However, less attention has been given to the microalgae photosynthetic mechanisms response to different CO 2 concentrations. The genetic reasons for the higher growth rate, CO 2 fixation rate, and photosynthetic efficiency of microalgal cells under higher CO 2 concentration have not been clearly defined yet. In this study, the Illumina sequencing and de novo transcriptome assembly of Chlorella PY-ZU1 cells cultivated under 15% CO 2 were performed and compared with those of cells grown under air. It was found that carbonic anhydrase (CAs, enzyme for interconversion of bicarbonate to CO 2 ) dramatically decreased to near 0 in 15% CO 2 -grown cells, which indicated that CO 2 molecules directly permeated into cells under high CO 2 stress without CO 2 -concentrating mechanism. Extrapolating from the growth conditions and quantitative Real-Time PCR of CCM-related genes, the K m (CO 2 ) (the minimum intracellular CO 2 concentration that rubisco required) of Chlorella PY-ZU1 might be in the range of 80-192 μM. More adenosine triphosphates was saved for carbon fixation-related pathways. The transcript abundance of rubisco (the most important enzyme of CO 2 fixation reaction) was 16.3 times higher in 15% CO 2 -grown cells than that under air. Besides, the transcript abundances of most key genes involved in carbon fixation pathways were also enhanced in 15% CO 2 -grown cells. Carbon fixation and nitrogen metabolism are the two most important metabolisms in the photosynthetic cells. These genes related to the two most metabolisms with significantly differential expressions were beneficial for microalgal growth (2.85 g L -1 ) under 15% CO 2 concentration. Considering the micro and macro growth phenomena of Chlorella PY-ZU1 under different concentrations of CO 2 (0.04-60%), CO 2 transport pathways responses to different CO 2 (0.04-60%) concentrations was reconstructed.

Distinct Signaling Pathways Mediate Stimulation of Cell Cycle Progression and Prevention of Apoptotic Cell Death by Estrogen in Rat Pituitary Tumor PR1 Cells

PubMed Central

Caporali, Simona; Imai, Manami; Altucci, Lucia; Cancemi, Massimo; Caristi, Silvana; Cicatiello, Luigi; Matarese, Filomena; Penta, Roberta; Sarkar, Dipak K.; Bresciani, Francesco; Weisz, Alessandro

2003-01-01

Estrogens control cell growth and viability in target cells via an interplay of genomic and extragenomic pathways not yet elucidated. Here, we show evidence that cell proliferation and survival are differentially regulated by estrogen in rat pituitary tumor PR1 cells. Pico- to femtomolar concentrations of 17β-estradiol (E2) are sufficient to foster PR1 cell proliferation, whereas nanomolar concentrations of the same are needed to prevent cell death that occurs at a high rate in these cells in the absence of hormone. Activation of endogenous (PRL) or transfected estrogen-responsive genes occurs at the same, higher concentrations of E2 required to promote cell survival, whereas stimulation of cyclin D3 expression and DNA synthesis occur at lower E2 concentrations. Similarly, the pure antiestrogen ICI 182,780 inhibits estrogen response element-dependent trans-activation and cell death more effectively than cyclin-cdk activity, G1-S transition, or DNA synthesis rate. In antiestrogen-treated and/or estrogen-deprived cells, death is due predominantly to apoptosis. Estrogen-induced cell survival, but not E2-dependent cell cycle progression, can be prevented by an inhibitor of c-Src kinase or by blockade of the mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase/extracellular signal-regulated kinase signaling pathway. These data indicate the coexistence of two distinguishable estrogen signaling pathways in PR1 cells, characterized by different functions and sensitivity to hormones and antihormones. PMID:12960425

Can We Asses the Impact of Water Factor on Ecosystems and Agriculture under Future Climate Conditions? Case Study from Poland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okruszko, T.; O'Keeffe, J.; Marcinkowski, P.; Utratna, M.; Szcześniak, M.; Piniewski, M.

2016-12-01

This study presents a broad overview of climate change impacts on eco- and agro-systems in Poland using an index-based approach for the Vistula and Odra river basins in Poland. The issues of risks to biodiversity and agricultural productivity caused by climate change (CC) are explicitly addressed. The biodiversity issue is tackled by the analysis of two types of ecosystems: instream and wetland (both river-and groundwater fed). Agro-systems are analyzed using key crops (spring and winter grains, potatoes, corn and grasslands),including their regional differentiation and dominant soil types. The study was accomplished in the following steps: (1) development of historical climate dataset and its application for bias correction of climate projections, (2) modelling the hydrological system using the SWAT model for historical and future climate, (3) development of indices quantifying the impact of water factoron eco- and agro-systems based on the SWAT model results, (4) calculation and critical analysis of results for two emission scenarios (RCPs) and two time horizons. The 5-km resolution precipitation and temperature dataset (10.5194/essd-8-127-2016) was developed and applied for bias correction of the multi-model ensemble of 9 CORDEX RCMs under two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Comprehensive calibration/validation of SWAT showed overall good results across a range of catchment sizes in Poland. The ensemble median increase (relative to historical period) ranged between 6 and 16 % for precipitation and between 18 and 48 % for water yield simulated by SWAT, depending on the future time horizon and RCP. The Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) quantifying the natural flow regime were used as a proxy for quantifying the CC effect on instream biota (notably fish). Changes in frequency and magnitude of the identified flood events informed about the alteration to the water supply for riparian wetlands. Changes in groundwater recharge are used as a proxy for water conditions in mires. The SWAT output on water stress has proven to be a good indicator of agricultural drought. The results showed that developed indicators are highly sensitive to projected changes in water conditions under changing climate. It means that they can be used for agriculture adaptation programs and in conservation policy.

Vasopressin activates Akt/mTOR pathway in smooth muscle cells cultured in high glucose concentration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montes, Daniela K.; Brenet, Marianne; Muñoz, Vanessa C.

Highlights: •AVP induces mTOR phosphorylation in A-10 cells cultured in high glucose concentration. •The mTOR phosphorylation is mediated by the PI3K/Akt pathway activation. •The AVP-induced mTOR phosphorylation inhibited autophagy and stimulated cell proliferation. -- Abstract: Mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) complex is a key regulator of autophagy, cell growth and proliferation. Here, we studied the effects of arginine vasopressin (AVP) on mTOR activation in vascular smooth muscle cells cultured in high glucose concentration. AVP induced the mTOR phosphorylation in A-10 cells grown in high glucose, in contrast to cells cultured in normal glucose; wherein, only basal phosphorylation was observed. Themore » AVP-induced mTOR phosphorylation was inhibited by a PI3K inhibitor. Moreover, the AVP-induced mTOR activation inhibited autophagy and increased thymidine incorporation in cells grown in high glucose. This increase was abolished by rapamycin which inhibits the mTORC1 complex formation. Our results suggest that AVP stimulates mTOR phosphorylation by activating the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway and, subsequently, inhibits autophagy and raises cell proliferation in A-10 cells maintained in high glucose concentration.« less

Contribution of the Hair Follicular Pathway to Total Skin Permeation of Topically Applied and Exposed Chemicals

PubMed Central

Mohd, Fadli; Todo, Hiroaki; Yoshimoto, Masato; Yusuf, Eddy; Sugibayashi, Kenji

2016-01-01

Generally, the blood and skin concentration profiles and steady-state skin concentration of topically applied or exposed chemicals can be calculated from the in vitro skin permeation profile. However, these calculation methods are particularly applicable to chemicals for which the main pathway is via the stratum corneum. If the contribution of hair follicles to the total skin permeation of chemicals can be obtained in detail, their blood and skin concentrations can be more precisely predicted. In the present study, the contribution of the hair follicle pathway to the skin permeation of topically applied or exposed chemicals was calculated from the difference between their permeability coefficients through skin with and without hair follicle plugging, using an in vitro skin permeation experiment. The obtained results reveal that the contribution of the hair follicle pathway can be predicted by using the chemicals’ lipophilicity. For hydrophilic chemicals (logarithm of n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Ko/w) < 0), a greater reduction of permeation due to hair follicle plugging was observed than for lipophilic chemicals (log Ko/w ≥ 0). In addition, the ratio of this reduction was decreased with an increase in log Ko/w. This consideration of the hair follicle pathway would be helpful to investigate the efficacy and safety of chemicals after topical application or exposure to them because skin permeation and disposition should vary among skins in different body sites due to differences in the density of hair follicles. PMID:27854289

Contribution of the Hair Follicular Pathway to Total Skin Permeation of Topically Applied and Exposed Chemicals.

PubMed

Mohd, Fadli; Todo, Hiroaki; Yoshimoto, Masato; Yusuf, Eddy; Sugibayashi, Kenji

2016-11-15

Generally, the blood and skin concentration profiles and steady-state skin concentration of topically applied or exposed chemicals can be calculated from the in vitro skin permeation profile. However, these calculation methods are particularly applicable to chemicals for which the main pathway is via the stratum corneum. If the contribution of hair follicles to the total skin permeation of chemicals can be obtained in detail, their blood and skin concentrations can be more precisely predicted. In the present study, the contribution of the hair follicle pathway to the skin permeation of topically applied or exposed chemicals was calculated from the difference between their permeability coefficients through skin with and without hair follicle plugging, using an in vitro skin permeation experiment. The obtained results reveal that the contribution of the hair follicle pathway can be predicted by using the chemicals' lipophilicity. For hydrophilic chemicals (logarithm of n -octanol/water partition coefficient (log K o/w ) < 0), a greater reduction of permeation due to hair follicle plugging was observed than for lipophilic chemicals (log K o/w ≥ 0). In addition, the ratio of this reduction was decreased with an increase in log K o/w . This consideration of the hair follicle pathway would be helpful to investigate the efficacy and safety of chemicals after topical application or exposure to them because skin permeation and disposition should vary among skins in different body sites due to differences in the density of hair follicles.

Quantitative trait loci and metabolic pathways: genetic control of the concentration of maysin, a corn earworm resistance factor, in maize silks.

PubMed Central

Byrne, P F; McMullen, M D; Snook, M E; Musket, T A; Theuri, J M; Widstrom, N W; Wiseman, B R; Coe, E H

1996-01-01

Interpretation of quantitative trait locus (QTL) studies of agronomic traits is limited by lack of knowledge of biochemical pathways leading to trait expression. To more fully elucidate the biological significance of detected QTL, we chose a trait that is the product of a well-characterized pathway, namely the concentration of maysin, a C-glycosyl flavone, in silks of maize, Zea mays L. Maysin is a host-plant resistance factor against the corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie). We determined silk maysin concentrations and restriction fragment length polymorphism genotypes at flavonoid pathway loci or linked markers for 285 F2 plants derived from the cross of lines GT114 and GT119. Single-factor analysis of variance indicated that the p1 region on chromosome 1 accounted for 58.0% of the phenotypic variance and showed additive gene action. The p1 locus is a transcription activator for portions of the flavonoid pathway. A second QTL, represented by marker umc 105a near the brown pericarp1 locus on chromosome 9, accounted for 10.8% of the variance. Gene action of this region was dominant for low maysin, but was only expressed in the presence of a functional p1 allele. The model explaining the greatest proportion of phenotypic variance (75.9%) included p1, umc105a, umc166b (chromosome 1), r1 (chromosome 10), and two epistatic interaction terms, p1 x umc105a and p1 x r1. Our results provide evidence that regulatory loci have a central role and that there is a complex interplay among different branches of the flavonoid pathway in the expression of this trait. PMID:11607699

Wnt signalling pathway parameters for mammalian cells.

PubMed

Tan, Chin Wee; Gardiner, Bruce S; Hirokawa, Yumiko; Layton, Meredith J; Smith, David W; Burgess, Antony W

2012-01-01

Wnt/β-catenin signalling regulates cell fate, survival, proliferation and differentiation at many stages of mammalian development and pathology. Mutations of two key proteins in the pathway, APC and β-catenin, have been implicated in a range of cancers, including colorectal cancer. Activation of Wnt signalling has been associated with the stabilization and nuclear accumulation of β-catenin and consequential up-regulation of β-catenin/TCF gene transcription. In 2003, Lee et al. constructed a computational model of Wnt signalling supported by experimental data from analysis of time-dependent concentration of Wnt signalling proteins in Xenopus egg extracts. Subsequent studies have used the Xenopus quantitative data to infer Wnt pathway dynamics in other systems. As a basis for understanding Wnt signalling in mammalian cells, a confocal live cell imaging measurement technique is developed to measure the cell and nuclear volumes of MDCK, HEK293T cells and 3 human colorectal cancer cell lines and the concentrations of Wnt signalling proteins β-catenin, Axin, APC, GSK3β and E-cadherin. These parameters provide the basis for formulating Wnt signalling models for kidney/intestinal epithelial mammalian cells. There are significant differences in concentrations of key proteins between Xenopus extracts and mammalian whole cell lysates. Higher concentrations of Axin and lower concentrations of APC are present in mammalian cells. Axin concentrations are greater than APC in kidney epithelial cells, whereas in intestinal epithelial cells the APC concentration is higher than Axin. Computational simulations based on Lee's model, with this new data, suggest a need for a recalibration of the model.A quantitative understanding of Wnt signalling in mammalian cells, in particular human colorectal cancers requires a detailed understanding of the concentrations of key protein complexes over time. Simulations of Wnt signalling in mammalian cells can be initiated with the parameters measured in this report.

Thyroid organotypic rat and human cultures used to investigate drug effects on thyroid function, hormone synthesis and release pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vickers, Alison E.M., E-mail: vickers_alison@allergan.com; Heale, Jason; Sinclair, John R.

Drug induced thyroid effects were evaluated in organotypic models utilizing either a rat thyroid lobe or human thyroid slices to compare rodent and human response. An inhibition of thyroid peroxidase (TPO) function led to a perturbation in the expression of key genes in thyroid hormone synthesis and release pathways. The clinically used thiourea drugs, methimazole (MMI) and 6-n-propyl-2-thioruacil (PTU), were used to evaluate thyroid drug response in these models. Inhibition of TPO occurred early as shown in rat thyroid lobes (2 h) and was sustained in both rat (24–48 h) and human (24 h) with ≥ 10 μM MMI. Thyroidmore » from rats treated with single doses of MMI (30–1000 mg/kg) exhibited sustained TPO inhibition at 48 h. The MMI in vivo thyroid concentrations were comparable to the culture concentrations (∼ 15–84 μM), thus demonstrating a close correlation between in vivo and ex vivo thyroid effects. A compensatory response to TPO inhibition was demonstrated in the rat thyroid lobe with significant up-regulation of genes involved in the pathway of thyroid hormone synthesis (Tpo, Dio1, Slc5a5, Tg, Tshr) and the megalin release pathway (Lrp2) by 24 h with MMI (≥ 10 μM) and PTU (100 μM). Similarly, thyroid from the rat in vivo study exhibited an up-regulation of Dio1, Slc5a5, Lrp2, and Tshr. In human thyroid slices, there were few gene expression changes (Slc5a5, ∼ 2-fold) and only at higher MMI concentrations (≥ 1500 μM, 24 h). Extended exposure (48 h) resulted in up-regulation of Tpo, Dio1 and Lrp2, along with Slc5a5 and Tshr. In summary, TPO was inhibited by similar MMI concentrations in rat and human tissue, however an increased sensitivity to drug treatment in rat is indicated by the up-regulation of thyroid hormone synthesis and release gene pathways at concentrations found not to affect human tissue. -- Highlights: ► Novel model of rat thyroid or human thyroid slices to evaluate pathways of injury. ► TPO inhibition by MMI or PTU altered hormone synthesis and release genes. ► Rat thyroid was more sensitive to the drug effects than human tissue.« less

Functional toxicogenomic assessment of triclosan in human ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Thousands of chemicals for which limited toxicological data are available are used and then detected in humans and the environment. Rapid and cost-effective approaches for assessing the toxicological properties of chemicals are needed. We used CRISPR-Cas9 functional genomic screening to identify potential molecular mechanism of a widely used antimicrobial triclosan (TCS) in HepG2 cells. Resistant genes (whose knockout gives potential resistance) at IC50 (50% Inhibition concentration of cell viability) were significantly enriched in adherens junction pathway, MAPK signaling pathway and PPAR signaling pathway, suggesting a potential molecular mechanism in TCS induced cytotoxicity. Evaluation of top-ranked resistant genes, FTO (encoding an mRNA demethylase) and MAP2K3 (a MAP kinase kinase family gene), revealed that their loss conferred resistance to TCS. In contrast, sensitive genes (whose knockout enhances potential sensitivity) at IC10 and IC20 were specifically enriched in pathways involved with immune responses, which was concordant with the transcriptomic profiling of TCS at concentrations

Boron Tolerance in Aspergillus nidulans Is Sustained by the SltA Pathway Through the SLC-Family Transporters SbtA and SbtB

PubMed Central

Villarino, María; Mendizabal, Gorka; Garzia, Aitor; Ugalde, Unai

2017-01-01

Microbial cells interact with the environment by adapting to external changes. Signal transduction pathways participate in both sensing and responding in the form of modification of gene expression patterns, enabling cell survival. The filamentous fungal-specific SltA pathway regulates tolerance to alkalinity, elevated cation concentrations and, as shown in this work, also stress conditions induced by borates. Growth of sltA− mutants is inhibited by increasing millimolar concentrations of boric acid or borax (sodium tetraborate). In an attempt to identify genes required for boron-stress response, we determined the boric acid or borax-dependent expression of sbtA and sbtB, orthologs of Saccharomyces cerevisiae bor1, and a reduction in their transcript levels in a ΔsltA mutant. Deletion of sbtA, but mainly that of sbtB, decreased the tolerance to boric acid or borax. In contrast, null mutants of genes coding for additional transporters of the Solute Carrier (SLC) family, sB, sbtD or sbtE, showed an unaltered growth pattern under the same stress conditions. Taken together, our results suggest that the SltA pathway induces, through SbtA and SbtB, the export of toxic concentrations of borates, which have largely recognized antimicrobial properties. PMID:28753996

Rates of nickel(II) capture from complexes with NTA, EDDA, and related tetradentate chelating agents by the hexadentate chelating agents EDTA and CDTA: Evidence of a "semijunctive" ligand exchange pathway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boland, Nathan E.; Stone, Alan T.

2017-09-01

Many siderophores and metallophores produced by soil organisms, as well as anthropogenic chelating agent soil amendments, rely upon amine and carboxylate Lewis base groups for metal ion binding. UV-visible spectra of metal ion-chelating agent complexes are often similar and, as a consequence, whole-sample absorbance measurements are an unreliable means of monitoring the progress of exchange reactions. In the present work, we employ capillary electrophoresis to physically separate Ni(II)-tetradentate chelating agent complexes (NiL) from Ni(II)-hexadentate chelating agent complexes (NiY) prior to UV detection, such that progress of the reaction NiL + Y → NiY + L can be conveniently monitored. Rates of ligand exchange for Ni(II) are lower than for other +II transition metal ions. Ni(II) speciation in environmental media is often under kinetic rather than equilibrium control. Nitrilotriacetic acid (NTA), with three carboxylate groups all tethered to a central amine Lewis base group, ethylenediamine-N,N‧-diacetic acid (EDDA), with carboxylate-amine-amine-carboxylate groups arranged linearly, plus four structurally related compounds, are used as tetradentate chelating agents. Ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) and the structurally more rigid analog trans-cyclohexaneethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (CDTA) are used as hexadentate chelating agents. Effects of pH and reactant concentration are explored. Ni(II) capture by EDTA was consistently more than an order of magnitude faster than capture by CDTA, and too fast to quantify using our capillary electrophoresis-based technique. Using NiNTA as a reactant, Ni(II) capture by CDTA is independent of CDTA concentration and greatly enhanced by a proton-catalyzed pathway at low pH. Using NiEDDA as reactant, Ni(II) capture by CDTA is first order with respect to CDTA concentration, and the contribution from the proton-catalyzed pathway diminished by CDTA protonation. While the convention is to assign either a disjunctive pathway or adjunctive pathway to multidentate ligand exchange reactions, our results indicate that a third "semijunctive" pathway is necessary to account for slow reactions progressing through Lsbnd Nisbnd Y ternary complexes. Ligand exchange pathways with NTA-type chelating agents are assigned a disjunctive pathway, while pathways with EDDA-type chelating agents are assigned a semijunctive pathway. Based upon operative mechanism(s), magnitudes of exchange rates and effects of ambient geochemical conditions can be predicted.

Evolutionary Importance of the Intramolecular Pathways of Hydrolysis of Phosphate Ester Mixed Anhydrides with Amino Acids and Peptides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ziwei; Beaufils, Damien; Rossi, Jean-Christophe; Pascal, Robert

2014-12-01

Aminoacyl adenylates (aa-AMPs) constitute essential intermediates of protein biosynthesis. Their polymerization in aqueous solution has often been claimed as a potential route to abiotic peptides in spite of a highly efficient CO2-promoted pathway of hydrolysis. Here we investigate the efficiency and relevance of this frequently overlooked pathway from model amino acid phosphate mixed anhydrides including aa-AMPs. Its predominance was demonstrated at CO2 concentrations matching that of physiological fluids or that of the present-day ocean, making a direct polymerization pathway unlikely. By contrast, the occurrence of the CO2-promoted pathway was observed to increase the efficiency of peptide bond formation owing to the high reactivity of the N-carboxyanhydride (NCA) intermediate. Even considering CO2 concentrations in early Earth liquid environments equivalent to present levels, mixed anhydrides would have polymerized predominantly through NCAs. The issue of a potential involvement of NCAs as biochemical metabolites could even be raised. The formation of peptide-phosphate mixed anhydrides from 5(4H)-oxazolones (transiently formed through prebiotically relevant peptide activation pathways) was also observed as well as the occurrence of the reverse cyclization process in the reactions of these mixed anhydrides. These processes constitute the core of a reaction network that could potentially have evolved towards the emergence of translation.

Impaired insulin signaling pathways affect ovarian steroidogenesis in cows with COD.

PubMed

Gareis, N C; Huber, E; Hein, G J; Rodríguez, F M; Salvetti, N R; Angeli, E; Ortega, H H; Rey, F

2018-05-01

Cystic ovarian disease (COD) represents an important cause of infertility in dairy cattle and is associated with multiple physiological disorders. Steroidogenesis, which is necessary to ensure normal ovarian functions, involves multiple enzymatic pathways coordinated by insulin and other proteins. We have previously shown that cows with COD have an altered insulin response. Therefore, in the present study, we evaluated further alterations in intermediates downstream of the PI3K pathway and pathways mediated by ERK as critical signals for the expression of steroidogenic enzymes in the ovaries of control cows and cows with spontaneous COD. To this end, we evaluated the gene and protein expression of pan-AKT, mTOR, ERK1/2, and steroidogenic enzymes by real-time PCR and immunohistochemistry. Steroid hormone concentrations were assessed at systemic and intrafollicular level. Results showed altered expression of intermediate molecules of the insulin signaling pathway, whose action might modify the synthetic pathway of steroidogenic hormones. Similarly, the expression of steroidogenic enzymes and the concentration of progesterone in serum and follicular fluid were altered. These alterations support the hypothesis that systemic factors contribute to the development and/or maintenance of COD, and that metabolic hormones within follicles such as insulin exert determinant effects on ovarian functionality in cows with COD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exposure and Dosimetry Considerations for Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) (NIH-AOP)

EPA Science Inventory

Risk is a function of both of hazard and exposure. Toxicokinetic (TK) models can determine whether chemical exposures produce potentially hazardous tissue concentrations. Whether or not the initial molecular event (MIE) in an Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) occurs depends on both e...

New insights into the mechanism of phthalate-induced developmental effects.

PubMed

Mu, Xiyan; Huang, Ying; Li, Jia; Yang, Ke; Yang, Wenbo; Shen, Gongming; Li, Xuxing; Lei, Yunlei; Pang, Sen; Wang, Chengju; Li, Xuefeng; Li, Yingren

2018-06-11

To investigate the biological pathways involved in phthalate-induced developmental effects, zebrafish embryos were exposed to different concentrations of di-(2-ethylhexyl) (DEHP) and di-butyl phthalate (DBP) for 96 h. Embryonic exposure to DEHP and DBP induced body length decrease, yolk sac abnormities, and immune responses (up-regulation of immune proteins and genes). The lipidomic results showed that at a concentration of 50 μg/L, DEHP and DBP significantly reduced the levels of fatty acids, triglycerides, diacylglycerol, and cholesterol. These effects are partly explained by biological pathway enrichment based on data from the transcriptional and proteomic profiles. Co-exposure to DBP and ER antagonist did not significantly relieve the toxic symptoms compared with exposure to DBP alone. This indicates that phthalate-induced developmental abnormities in zebrafish might not be mediated by the ER pathway. In conclusion, we identified the possible biological pathways that mediate phthalate-induced developmental effects and found that these effects may not be driven by estrogenic activation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The last common ancestor of animals lacked the HIF pathway and respired in low-oxygen environments

PubMed Central

Vargas, Sergio; Larsen, Morten; Elemans, Coen PH; Canfield, Donald E

2018-01-01

Animals have a carefully orchestrated relationship with oxygen. When exposed to low environmental oxygen concentrations, and during periods of increased energy expenditure, animals maintain cellular oxygen homeostasis by enhancing internal oxygen delivery, and by enabling the anaerobic production of ATP. These low-oxygen responses are thought to be controlled universally across animals by the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF). We find, however, that sponge and ctenophore genomes lack key components of the HIF pathway. Since sponges and ctenophores are likely sister to all remaining animal phyla, the last common ancestor of extant animals likely lacked the HIF pathway as well. Laboratory experiments show that the marine sponge Tethya wilhelma maintains normal transcription under oxygen levels down to 0.25% of modern atmospheric saturation, the lowest levels we investigated, consistent with the predicted absence of HIF or any other HIF-like pathway. Thus, the last common ancestor of all living animals could have metabolized aerobically under very low environmental oxygen concentrations. PMID:29402379

Field drains as a route of rapid nutrient export from agricultural land receiving biosolids.

PubMed

Heathwaite, A L; Burke, S P; Bolton, L

2006-07-15

We report research on the environmental risk of incidental nutrient transfers from land to water for biosolids amended soils. We show that subsurface (drainflow) pathways of P transport may result in significant concentrations, up to 10 mg total P l(-1), in the drainage network of an arable catchment when a P source (recent biosolids application) coincides with a significant and active transport pathway (rainfall event). However, the high P concentrations were short-lived, with drainage ditch total P concentrations returning to pre-storm concentrations within a few days of the storm event. In the case of the drainflow concentrations reported here, the results are unusual in that they describe an 'incidental event' for a groundwater catchment where such events might normally be expected to be rare owing to the capacity of the hydrological system to attenuate nutrient fluxes for highly adsorbed elements such as P. Consequently, there is a potential risk of P transfers to shallow groundwater systems. We suggest that the findings are not specific to biosolids-alone, which is a highly regulated industry, but that similar results may be anticipated had livestock waste or mineral fertilizer been applied, although the magnitude of losses may differ. The risk appears to be more one of timing and the availability of a rapid transport pathway than of P source.

Effects of nitrogen availability on polymalic acid biosynthesis in the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans.

PubMed

Wang, Yongkang; Song, Xiaodan; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Bochu; Zou, Xiang

2016-08-22

Polymalic acid (PMA) is a novel polyester polymer that has been broadly used in the medical and food industries. Its monomer, L-malic acid, is also a potential C4 platform chemical. However, little is known about the mechanism of PMA biosynthesis in the yeast-like fungus, Aureobasidium pullulans. In this study, the effects of different nitrogen concentration on cell growth and PMA biosynthesis were investigated via comparative transcriptomics and proteomics analyses, and a related signaling pathway was also evaluated. A high final PMA titer of 44.00 ± 3.65 g/L (49.9 ± 4.14 g/L of malic acid after hydrolysis) was achieved in a 5-L fermentor under low nitrogen concentration (2 g/L of NH4NO3), which was 18.3 % higher yield than that obtained under high nitrogen concentration (10 g/L of NH4NO3). Comparative transcriptomics profiling revealed that a set of genes, related to the ribosome, ribosome biogenesis, proteasome, and nitrogen metabolism, were significantly up- or down-regulated under nitrogen sufficient conditions, which could be regulated by the TOR signaling pathway. Fourteen protein spots were identified via proteomics analysis, and were found to be associated with cell division and growth, energy metabolism, and the glycolytic pathway. qRT-PCR further confirmed that the expression levels of key genes involved in the PMA biosynthetic pathway (GLK, CS, FUM, DAT, and MCL) and the TOR signaling pathway (GS, TOR1, Tap42, and Gat1) were upregulated due to nitrogen limitation. Under rapamycin stress, PMA biosynthesis was obviously inhibited in a dose-dependent manner, and the transcription levels of TOR1, MCL, and DAT were also downregulated. The level of nitrogen could regulate cell growth and PMA biosynthesis. Low concentration of nitrogen was beneficial for PMA biosynthesis, which could upregulate the expression of key genes involved in the PMA biosynthesis pathway. Cell growth and PMA biosynthesis might be mediated by the TOR signaling pathway in response to nitrogen. This study will help us to deeply understand the molecular mechanisms of PMA biosynthesis, and to develop an effective process for the production of PMA and malic acid chemicals.

Undoing climate warming by atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal: can a holocene-like climate be restored?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDougall, Andrew

2013-04-01

Understandably, most climate modelling studies of future climate have focused on the affects of carbon emissions in the present century or the long-term fate of anthropogenically emitted carbon. These studies make an assumption: that once net anthropogenic carbon emissions cease, that humanity will make no further effort to intervene in atmospheric composition. There is a case to be made, however, that there will be a desire to return to a "safe" atmospheric concentration of CO2. Realistically this implies synthetically removing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it is some geologically stable form. For this study experiments were conducted using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) forced with novel future atmospheric trace-gas concentration pathways to explore a gradual return to pre-industrial radiative forcing. The concentration pathways follow each RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) exactly until the peak CO2 concentration of that RCP is reached, at which point atmospheric CO2 is reduced at the same rate it increased until the 1850 concentration of CO2 is reached. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas forcing follows the prescribed RCP path until the year of peak CO2, then is subsequently linearly reduced to pre-industrial forcing. Pasture and crop areas are also gradually reduced to their pre-industrial extent. Under the middle two concentration pathways (4.5 and 6.0) a climate resembling the 20th century climate can be restored by the 25th century, although surface temperature remains above the pre-industrial temperature until at least the 30th century. Due to carbon-cycle feedbacks the quantity of carbon that must be removed from the atmosphere is larger than the quantity that was originally emitted. For concentration pathways 2.6, 4.5, and 6.0 the sequestered CO2 is 115-190% of the original cumulative carbon emissions. These results suggest that even with monumental effort to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, humanity will be living with the consequences of fossil fuel emissions for a very long time.

Serum Oxidative Stress-Induced Repression of Nrf2 and GSH Depletion: A Mechanism Potentially Involved in Endothelial Dysfunction of Young Smokers

PubMed Central

Fratta Pasini, Anna; Albiero, Anna; Stranieri, Chiara; Cominacini, Mattia; Pasini, Andrea; Mozzini, Chiara; Vallerio, Paola; Cominacini, Luciano; Garbin, Ulisse

2012-01-01

Background Although oxidative stress plays a major role in endothelial dysfunction (ED), the role of glutathione (GSH), of nuclear erythroid-related factor 2 (Nrf2) and of related antioxidant genes (ARE) are yet unknown. In this study we combined an in vivo with an in vitro model to assess whether cigarette smoking affects flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD), GSH concentrations and the Nrf2/ARE pathway in human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs). Methods and Results 52 healthy subjects (26 non-smokers and 26 heavy smokers) were enrolled in this study. In smokers we demonstrated increased oxidative stress, i.e., reduced concentrations of GSH and increased concentrations of oxidation products of the phospholipid 1-palmitoyl-2-arachidonyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphorylcholine (oxPAPC) in serum and in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), used as in vivo surrogates of endothelial cells. Moreover we showed impairment of FMD in smokers and a positive correlation with the concentration of GSH in PBMC of all subjects. In HUVECs exposed to smokers' serum but not to non-smokers' serum we found that oxidative stress increased, whereas nitric oxide and GSH concentrations decreased; interestingly the expression of Nrf2, of heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) and of glutamate-cysteine ligase catalytic (GCLC) subunit, the rate-limiting step of synthesis of GSH, was decreased. To test the hypothesis that the increased oxidative stress in smokers may have a causal role in the repression of Nrf2/ARE pathway, we exposed HUVECs to increasing concentrations of oxPAPC and found that at the highest concentration (similar to that found in smokers' serum) the expression of Nrf2/ARE pathway was reduced. The knockdown of Nrf2 was associated to a significant reduction of HO-1 and GCLC expression induced by oxPAPC in ECs. Conclusions In young smokers with ED a novel further consequence of increased oxidative stress is a repression of Nrf2/ARE pathway leading to GSH depletion. PMID:22272327

Thyroid organotypic rat and human cultures used to investigate drug effects on thyroid function, hormone synthesis and release pathways.

PubMed

Vickers, Alison E M; Heale, Jason; Sinclair, John R; Morris, Stephen; Rowe, Josh M; Fisher, Robyn L

2012-04-01

Drug induced thyroid effects were evaluated in organotypic models utilizing either a rat thyroid lobe or human thyroid slices to compare rodent and human response. An inhibition of thyroid peroxidase (TPO) function led to a perturbation in the expression of key genes in thyroid hormone synthesis and release pathways. The clinically used thiourea drugs, methimazole (MMI) and 6-n-propyl-2-thioruacil (PTU), were used to evaluate thyroid drug response in these models. Inhibition of TPO occurred early as shown in rat thyroid lobes (2 h) and was sustained in both rat (24-48 h) and human (24 h) with ≥ 10 μM MMI. Thyroid from rats treated with single doses of MMI (30-1000 mg/kg) exhibited sustained TPO inhibition at 48 h. The MMI in vivo thyroid concentrations were comparable to the culture concentrations (~15-84 μM), thus demonstrating a close correlation between in vivo and ex vivo thyroid effects. A compensatory response to TPO inhibition was demonstrated in the rat thyroid lobe with significant up-regulation of genes involved in the pathway of thyroid hormone synthesis (Tpo, Dio1, Slc5a5, Tg, Tshr) and the megalin release pathway (Lrp2) by 24h with MMI (≥ 10 μM) and PTU (100 μM). Similarly, thyroid from the rat in vivo study exhibited an up-regulation of Dio1, Slc5a5, Lrp2, and Tshr. In human thyroid slices, there were few gene expression changes (Slc5a5, ~2-fold) and only at higher MMI concentrations (≥ 1500 μM, 24h). Extended exposure (48 h) resulted in up-regulation of Tpo, Dio1 and Lrp2, along with Slc5a5 and Tshr. In summary, TPO was inhibited by similar MMI concentrations in rat and human tissue, however an increased sensitivity to drug treatment in rat is indicated by the up-regulation of thyroid hormone synthesis and release gene pathways at concentrations found not to affect human tissue. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Myostatin inhibits eEF2K-eEF2 by regulating AMPK to suppress protein synthesis.

PubMed

Deng, Zhao; Luo, Pei; Lai, Wen; Song, Tongxing; Peng, Jian; Wei, Hong-Kui

2017-12-09

Growth of skeletal muscle is dependent on the protein synthesis, and the rate of protein synthesis is mainly regulated in the stage of translation initiation and elongation. Myostatin, a member of the transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) superfamily, is a negative regulator of protein synthesis. C2C12 myotubes was incubated with 0, 0.01, 0.1, 1, 2, 3 μg/mL myostatin recombinant protein, and then we detected the rates of protein synthesis by the method of SUnSET. We found that high concentrations of myostatin (2 and 3 μg/mL) inhibited protein synthesis by blocking mTOR and eEF2K-eEF2 pathway, while low concentration of myostatin (0.01, 0.1 and 1 μg/mL) regulated eEF2K-eEF2 pathway activity to block protein synthesis without affected mTOR pathway, and myostatin inhibited eEF2K-eEF2 pathway through regulating AMPK pathway to suppress protein synthesis. It provided a new mechanism for myostatin regulating protein synthesis and treating muscle atrophy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A framework for the use of single-chemical transcriptomics data in predicting the hazards associated with complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

PubMed

Labib, Sarah; Williams, Andrew; Kuo, Byron; Yauk, Carole L; White, Paul A; Halappanavar, Sabina

2017-07-01

The assumption of additivity applied in the risk assessment of environmental mixtures containing carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was investigated using transcriptomics. MutaTMMouse were gavaged for 28 days with three doses of eight individual PAHs, two defined mixtures of PAHs, or coal tar, an environmentally ubiquitous complex mixture of PAHs. Microarrays were used to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in lung tissue collected 3 days post-exposure. Cancer-related pathways perturbed by the individual or mixtures of PAHs were identified, and dose-response modeling of the DEGs was conducted to calculate gene/pathway benchmark doses (BMDs). Individual PAH-induced pathway perturbations (the median gene expression changes for all genes in a pathway relative to controls) and pathway BMDs were applied to models of additivity [i.e., concentration addition (CA), generalized concentration addition (GCA), and independent action (IA)] to generate predicted pathway-specific dose-response curves for each PAH mixture. The predicted and observed pathway dose-response curves were compared to assess the sensitivity of different additivity models. Transcriptomics-based additivity calculation showed that IA accurately predicted the pathway perturbations induced by all mixtures of PAHs. CA did not support the additivity assumption for the defined mixtures; however, GCA improved the CA predictions. Moreover, pathway BMDs derived for coal tar were comparable to BMDs derived from previously published coal tar-induced mouse lung tumor incidence data. These results suggest that in the absence of tumor incidence data, individual chemical-induced transcriptomics changes associated with cancer can be used to investigate the assumption of additivity and to predict the carcinogenic potential of a mixture.

Assessment of relative potential for Legionella species or surrogates inhalation exposure from common water uses.

PubMed

Hines, Stephanie A; Chappie, Daniel J; Lordo, Robert A; Miller, Brian D; Janke, Robert J; Lindquist, H Alan; Fox, Kim R; Ernst, Hiba S; Taft, Sarah C

2014-06-01

The Legionella species have been identified as important waterborne pathogens in terms of disease morbidity and mortality. Microbial exposure assessment is a tool that can be utilized to assess the potential of Legionella species inhalation exposure from common water uses. The screening-level exposure assessment presented in this paper developed emission factors to model aerosolization, quantitatively assessed inhalation exposures of aerosolized Legionella species or Legionella species surrogates while evaluating two generalized levels of assumed water concentrations, and developed a relative ranking of six common in-home uses of water for potential Legionella species inhalation exposure. Considerable variability in the calculated exposure dose was identified between the six identified exposure pathways, with the doses differing by over five orders of magnitude in each of the evaluated exposure scenarios. The assessment of exposure pathways that have been epidemiologically associated with legionellosis transmission (ultrasonic and cool mist humidifiers) produced higher estimated inhalation exposure doses than pathways where epidemiological evidence of transmission has been less strong (faucet and shower) or absent (toilets and therapy pool). With consideration of the large uncertainties inherent in the exposure assessment process used, a relative ranking of exposure pathways from highest to lowest exposure doses was produced using culture-based measurement data and the assumption of constant water concentration across exposure pathways. In this ranking, the ultrasonic and cool mist humidifier exposure pathways were estimated to produce the highest exposure doses, followed by the shower and faucet exposure pathways, and then the toilet and therapy pool exposure pathways. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

High levels of testosterone inhibit ovarian follicle development by repressing the FSH signaling pathway.

PubMed

Liu, Tao; Cui, Yu-qian; Zhao, Han; Liu, Hong-bin; Zhao, Shi-dou; Gao, Yuan; Mu, Xiao-li; Gao, Fei; Chen, Zi-jiang

2015-10-01

The effect of high concentrations of testosterone on ovarian follicle development was investigated. Primary follicles and granulosa cells were cultured in vitro in media supplemented with a testosterone concentration gradient. The combined effects of testosterone and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) on follicular growth and granulosa cell gonadotropin receptor mRNA expression were also investigated. Follicle growth in the presence of high testosterone concentrations was promoted at early stages (days 1-7), but inhibited at later stage (days 7-14) of in vitro culture. Interestingly, testosterone-induced follicle development arrest was rescued by treatment with high concentrations of FSH (400 mIU/mL). In addition, in cultured granulosa cells, high testosterone concentrations induced cell proliferation, and increased the mRNA expression level of FSH receptor (FSHR), and luteinized hormone/choriogonadotropin receptor. It was concluded that high concentrations of testosterone inhibited follicle development, most likely through regulation of the FSH signaling pathway, although independently from FSHR downregulation. These findings are an important step in further understanding the pathogenesis of polycystic ovary syndrome.

Investigation and health risk assessment of heavy metals in soils from partial areas of Daye city, china

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M. S.; Li, F.; Zhang, J. D.; Lin, S. Y.; Zhuang, Z. Y.; Wu, Z. X.

2017-05-01

Heavy metals (Cu and Pb) in four sampling sites from parts areas of Daye city were collected. Concentrations of Cu and Pb in soils in sampling sites were detected, the enrichment degree was measured by geo-accumulation index, and the human health risks were calculated by applying the human health risk assessment model. The results show that the concentrations of Cu and Pb of soils in some areas are much more than Daye City, Hubei Province soil background value. The concentration of Cu and Pb in Xiaganwan soil sample has a higher value and the concentration of Cu (110.17 mg·kg-1) exceeds the soil environmental quality standards. The values of Igeo of Cu and Pb in the soil in some areas of Daye city are 1 except Xiaganwan sample is 2. For human health risk assessment, the non-cancer risk of Cu in three routes of exposure is less than Pb. The non-cancer risk both adults and children are less than 1 and show a general trend of HQ in oral ingestion exposure pathway > HQ in inhalation exposure pathway>HQ in skin contact exposure pathway. It will not cause significant non-carcinogenic health effects on the human body.

Estimating discharge and non-point source nitrate loading to streams from three end-member pathways using high-frequency water quality and streamflow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, M. P.; Tesoriero, A. J.; Hood, K.; Terziotti, S.; Wolock, D.

2017-12-01

The myriad hydrologic and biogeochemical processes taking place in watersheds occurring across space and time are integrated and reflected in the quantity and quality of water in streams and rivers. Collection of high-frequency water quality data with sensors in surface waters provides new opportunities to disentangle these processes and quantify sources and transport of water and solutes in the coupled groundwater-surface water system. A new approach for separating the streamflow hydrograph into three components was developed and coupled with high-frequency specific conductance and nitrate data to estimate time-variable watershed-scale nitrate loading from three end-member pathways - dilute quickflow, concentrated quickflow, and slowflow groundwater - to two streams in central Wisconsin. Time-variable nitrate loads from the three pathways were estimated for periods of up to two years in a groundwater-dominated and a quickflow-dominated stream, using only streamflow and in-stream water quality data. The dilute and concentrated quickflow end-members were distinguished using high-frequency specific conductance data. Results indicate that dilute quickflow contributed less than 5% of the nitrate load at both sites, whereas 89±5% of the nitrate load at the groundwater-dominated stream was from slowflow groundwater, and 84±13% of the nitrate load at the quickflow-dominated stream was from concentrated quickflow. Concentrated quickflow nitrate concentrations varied seasonally at both sites, with peak concentrations in the winter that were 2-3 times greater than minimum concentrations during the growing season. Application of this approach provides an opportunity to assess stream vulnerability to non-point source nitrate loading and expected stream responses to current or changing conditions and practices in watersheds.

Human umbilical vein: involvement of cyclooxygenase-2 pathway in bradykinin B1 receptor-sensitized responses.

PubMed

Errasti, A E; Rey-Ares, V; Daray, F M; Rogines-Velo, M P; Sardi, S P; Paz, C; Podestá, E J; Rothlin, R P

2001-08-01

In isolated human umbilical vein (HUV), the contractile response to des-Arg9-bradykinin (des-Arg9-BK), selective BK B1 receptor agonist, increases as a function of the incubation time. Here, we evaluated whether cyclooxygenase (COX) pathway is involved in BK B1-sensitized response obtained in 5-h incubated HUV rings. The effect of different concentrations of indomethacin, sodium salicylate, ibuprofen, meloxicam, lysine clonixinate or NS-398 administrated 30 min before concentration-response curves (CRC) was studied. All treatments produced a significant rightward shift of the CRC to des-Arg9-BK in a concentration-dependent manner, which provides pharmacological evidence that COX pathway is involved in the BK B1 responses. Moreover, in this tissue, the NS-398 pKb (5.2) observed suggests that COX-2 pathway is the most relevant. The strong correlation between published pIC50 for COX-2 and the NSAIDs' pKbs estimated further supports the hypothesis that COX-2 metabolites are involved in BK B1 receptor-mediated responses. In other rings, indomethacin (30, 100 micromol/l) or NS-398 (10, 30 micromol/l) produced a significant rightward shift of the CRC to BK, selective BK B2 agonist, and its pKbs were similar to the values to inhibit BK B1 receptor responses, suggesting that COX-2 pathway also is involved in BK B2 receptor responses. Western blot analysis shows that COX-1 and COX-2 isoenzymes are present before and after 5-h in vitro incubation and apparently COX-2 does not suffer additional induction.

Isonicotinamide Enhances Sir2 Protein-mediated Silencing and Longevity in Yeast by Raising Intracellular NAD+ Concentration*

PubMed Central

McClure, Julie M.; Wierman, Margaret B.; Maqani, Nazif; Smith, Jeffrey S.

2012-01-01

Sirtuins are an evolutionarily conserved family of NAD+-dependent protein deacetylases that function in the regulation of gene transcription, cellular metabolism, and aging. Their activity requires the maintenance of an adequate intracellular NAD+ concentration through the combined action of NAD+ biosynthesis and salvage pathways. Nicotinamide (NAM) is a key NAD+ precursor that is also a byproduct and feedback inhibitor of the deacetylation reaction. In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the nicotinamidase Pnc1 converts NAM to nicotinic acid (NA), which is then used as a substrate by the NAD+ salvage pathway enzyme NA phosphoribosyltransferase (Npt1). Isonicotinamide (INAM) is an isostere of NAM that stimulates yeast Sir2 deacetylase activity in vitro by alleviating the NAM inhibition. In this study, we determined that INAM stimulates Sir2 through an additional mechanism in vivo, which involves elevation of the intracellular NAD+ concentration. INAM enhanced normal silencing at the rDNA locus but only partially suppressed the silencing defects of an npt1Δ mutant. Yeast cells grown in media lacking NA had a short replicative life span, which was extended by INAM in a SIR2-dependent manner and correlated with increased NAD+. The INAM-induced increase in NAD+ was strongly dependent on Pnc1 and Npt1, suggesting that INAM increases flux through the NAD+ salvage pathway. Part of this effect was mediated by the NR salvage pathways, which generate NAM as a product and require Pnc1 to produce NAD+. We also provide evidence suggesting that INAM influences the expression of multiple NAD+ biosynthesis and salvage pathways to promote homeostasis during stationary phase. PMID:22539348

Profiling Environmental Chemicals in the Antioxidant Response Element Pathway using Quantitative High Throughput Screening (qHTS)

EPA Science Inventory

The antioxidant response element (ARE) signaling pathway plays an important role in the amelioration of oxidative stress, which can contribute to a number of diseases, including cancer. We screened 1408 NTP-provided substances in 1536-well qHTS format at concentrations ranging fr...

Compartmentalization of metabolic pathways in yeast mitochondria improves production of branched chain alcohols

PubMed Central

Avalos, José L.; Fink, Gerald R.; Stephanopoulos, Gregory

2013-01-01

Efforts to improve the production of a compound of interest in Saccharomyces cerevisiae have mainly involved engineering or overexpression of cytoplasmic enzymes. We show that targeted expression of metabolic pathways to mitochondria can increase production levels compared with expression of the same pathways in the cytoplasm. Compartmentalisation of the Ehrlich pathway into mitochondria increased isobutanol production by 260%, whereas overexpression of the same pathway in the cytoplasm only improved yields by 10%, compared with a strain overexpressing only the first three steps of the biosynthetic pathway. Subcellular fractionation of engineered strains reveals that targeting the enzymes of the Ehrlich pathway to the mitochondria achieves higher local enzyme concentrations. Other benefits of compartmentalization may include increased availability of intermediates, removing the need to transport intermediates out of the mitochondrion, and reducing the loss of intermediates to competing pathways. PMID:23417095

Benthic and Pelagic Pathways of Methylmercury Bioaccumulation in Estuarine Food Webs of the Northeast United States

PubMed Central

Chen, Celia Y.; Borsuk, Mark E.; Bugge, Deenie M.; Hollweg, Terill; Balcom, Prentiss H.; Ward, Darren M.; Williams, Jason; Mason, Robert P.

2014-01-01

Methylmercury (MeHg) is a contaminant of global concern that bioaccumulates and bioamagnifies in marine food webs. Lower trophic level fauna are important conduits of MeHg from sediment and water to estuarine and coastal fish harvested for human consumption. However, the sources and pathways of MeHg to these coastal fisheries are poorly known particularly the potential for transfer of MeHg from the sediment to biotic compartments. Across a broad gradient of human land impacts, we analyzed MeHg concentrations in food webs at ten estuarine sites in the Northeast US (from the Hackensack Meadowlands, NJ to the Gulf of Maine). MeHg concentrations in water column particulate material, but not in sediments, were predictive of MeHg concentrations in fish (killifish and Atlantic silversides). Moreover, MeHg concentrations were higher in pelagic fauna than in benthic-feeding fauna suggesting that MeHg delivery to the water column from methylation sites from within or outside of the estuary may be an important driver of MeHg bioaccumulation in estuarine pelagic food webs. In contrast, bulk sediment MeHg concentrations were only predictive of concentrations of MeHg in the infaunal worms. Our results across a broad gradient of sites demonstrate that the pathways of MeHg to lower trophic level estuarine organisms are distinctly different between benthic deposit feeders and forage fish. Thus, even in systems with contaminated sediments, transfer of MeHg into estuarine food webs maybe driven more by the efficiency of processes that determine MeHg input and bioavailability in the water column. PMID:24558491

Ecological Risk Assessment Report, Submerged Quench Incinerator, Task IRA-2, Basin F Liquids Treatment Design. Version 3.0

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

black bullhead (Ictalurus melas), channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus), and carp (Cvorinus corpio). Aquatic invertebrates that have been collected...in an aquatic medium); "* Bioaccumulation ( concentration from water and from diet ); and * Biomagnification (systematic increase in concentration as...pathway bioaccumulation is estimated by comparing chemical concentrations in soil and diet to chemical concentrations in tissue levels at

Spatial distribution, bioavailability, and health risk assessment of soil Hg in Wuhu urban area, China.

PubMed

Fang, Fengman; Wang, Haidong; Lin, Yuesheng

2011-08-01

Total mercury (Hg(T)) and bioavailability Hg (Hg(HCl)) concentrations in soil were determined in five districts in Wuhu urban area. Spatial pattern of soil Hg concentration was generated through kriging technology. Results showed that Hg concentration in soil ranged from 0.024 to 2.844 mg kg( -1) with an average of 0.207 mg kg( -1). Hg concentration in soil appeared to have a block distribution and decreased from downtown to surrounding district. And Hg concentrations appeared to have a medium scale spatial auto correlation, strongly affected by human activity. The maximal Hg average concentration (0.332 mg kg( -1)) in soil appeared in Jinghu district, where the high intensity of human activities is. Second highest Hg average concentration (0.263 mg kg( -1)) in soil appeared in development district, where the intensive industrial activities are. Bioavailability Hg concentration in soil ranged from 2.6 to 4.9 μg kg( -1) with an average of 3.8 μg kg( -1), which had a ratio of 0.28~6.44% to total Hg. The ratios of bioavailability Hg to total Hg in vegetable soil were bigger than those of park soil. Correlation analysis showed that total Hg, organic matter, total phosphorus, and bioavailability Hg concentrations in soil were significantly positively correlated. Hg concentration in vegetable ranged from 2.7 to 15.2 μg kg( -1) with an average of 6.5 μg kg( -1). Hg concentration in vegetable was positively correlated with Hg(HCl) concentration in soil. According to the calculation on hazard quotient (HQ) for children, inhalation of Hg vapor from soil is the main exposure pathway, in which HQ is 2.517 × 10( -2), accounting for 80.3% of the four exposure pathways. Hazard index (HI) of the four exposure pathways is lower than the "safe" level of HI = 1; therefore, exposure of soil Hg exhibited little potential health risk to children in Wuhu urban area.

Activation of the Alternative Pathway of Complement is a Feature of Preterm Parturition but Not of Spontaneous Labor at Term

PubMed Central

Vaisbuch, Edi; Romero, Roberto; Erez, Offer; Mazaki-Tovi, Shali; Kusanovic, Juan Pedro; Soto, Eleazar; Dong, Zhong; Chaiworapongsa, Tinnakorn; Kim, Sun Kwon; Ogge, Giovanna; Pacora, Percy; Yeo, Lami; Hassan, Sonia S.

2012-01-01

Problem Plasma concentrations of fragment Bb (FBb) are a marker for activation of the alternative pathway of the complement system. High concentrations of FBb in maternal blood, as early as the first trimester, are associated with subsequent spontaneous preterm delivery <34 weeks of gestation. The study aim was to determine whether spontaneous preterm labor with intact membranes (PTL), intra-amniotic infection/inflammation (IAI) or labor at term are associated with alterations in circulating maternal FBb concentrations. Method of Study This cross-sectional study included women in the following groups: 1) non-pregnant (n=40); 2) normal pregnancy (gestational age range 20-36 6/7 weeks, n=63); 2) women at term not in labor (n=70); 3) women at term in spontaneous labor (n=59); 4) patients with an episode of PTL who delivered at term (n=62); 5) PTL without IAI who delivered preterm (n=30); and 6) PTL with IAI who delivered preterm (n=67). Maternal plasma FBb concentrations were determined by ELISA. Results 1) Among patients with PTL, those who had a preterm delivery either with IAI (1.21 μg/ml, IQR 0.77-2.16) or without IAI (1.13 μg/ml, IQR 0.92-2.08;) had a higher median maternal plasma FBb concentration than those who delivered at term (0.86 μg/ml, IQR 0.64-1.57; p=0.007 and p=0.026, respectively); 2) there was no difference in the median plasma FBb concentration between patients with and without IAI who delivered preterm (p=0.9); 3) in contrast, spontaneous labor at term was not associated with a significant change in the maternal plasma FBb concentration (p=0.8); 4) maternal plasma concentration of FBb did not differ significantly between normal pregnant women and the non-pregnant controls (p=0.8) and were not correlated with advancing gestational age (r −0.28, p=0.8). Conclusions 1) Preterm parturition is associated with activation of the alternative complement pathway in maternal circulation; 2) such activation is not detectable in spontaneous labor at term; 3) intra-amniotic infection/inflammation does not explain the activation of the alternative pathway of complement in preterm labor. Collectively, these observations suggest that preterm and term labor have fundamental differences in the regulation of innate immunity. PMID:20163401

Functional Toxicogenomic Assessment of Triclosan in Human HepG2 Cells Using Genome-Wide CRISPR-Cas9 Screening.

PubMed

Xia, Pu; Zhang, Xiaowei; Xie, Yuwei; Guan, Miao; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Yu, Hongxia

2016-10-04

There are thousands of chemicals used by humans and detected in the environment for which limited or no toxicological data are available. Rapid and cost-effective approaches for assessing the toxicological properties of chemicals are needed. We used CRISPR-Cas9 functional genomic screening to identify the potential molecular mechanism of a widely used antimicrobial triclosan (TCS) in HepG2 cells. Resistant genes at IC50 (the concentration causing a 50% reduction in cell viability) were significantly enriched in the adherens junction pathway, MAPK signaling pathway, and PPAR signaling pathway, suggesting a potential role in the molecular mechanism of TCS-induced cytotoxicity. Evaluation of the top-ranked resistant genes, FTO (encoding an mRNA demethylase) and MAP2K3 (a MAP kinase kinase family gene), revealed that their loss conferred resistance to TCS. In contrast, sensitive genes at IC10 and IC20 were specifically enriched in pathways involved with immune responses, which was concordant with transcriptomic profiling of TCS at concentrations of

Magnolol-induced H460 cells death via autophagy but not apoptosis.

PubMed

Li, Hai-Bo; Yi, Xin; Gao, Jian-Mei; Ying, Xi-Xiang; Guan, Hong-Quan; Li, Jian-Chun

2007-12-01

We have reported that the protective effect of Magnolol on TBHP-induced injury in human nonsmall lung cancer H460 cells is partially via a p53 dependent mechanism. In this study, we found that Magnolol displayed a stimulatory effect at low concentrations (< or = 20 microM) whilst inhibitory effect at high concentrations (> or = 40 microM) in H460 cells. To investigate the mechanism of inducing the biphasic effect in H460 cells with Magnolol, we showed that Magnolol stimulated DNA synthesis at low concentrations and displayed an inhibition effect at high concentrations in H460 cells. More importantly, the inhibition of DNA synthesis was accompanied by the S phase cell cycle arrest and the appearance of intense intracytoplasmic vacuoles. These vacuoles can be labeled by autophagic marker monodansylcadaverin (MDC), 3-methyladenine (3-MA), an inhibitor of autophagy, was able to inhibit the occurrence of autophagy. The results of the LDH activity assay and TUNEL assay also showed that Magnolol at high concentrations inhibiting H460 cell growth was not via apoptotic pathway. Furthermore, accompanied by the occurrence of autophagy, the expression of phospho-Akt was down-regulated but PTEN significantly was up-regulated. In conclusion, Magnolol induces H460 cells death by autophagy but not apoptotic pathway. Blockade of PI3K/PTEN/Akt pathway is maybe related to Magnolol-induced autophagy. Autophagic cells death induction by Magnolol underlines the potential utility of its induction as a new cancer treatment modality.

Polyamines and cancer: Implications for chemoprevention and chemotherapy

PubMed Central

Nowotarski, Shannon L.; Woster, Patrick M.; Casero, Robert A.

2013-01-01

Polyamines are small organic cations that are essential for normal cell growth and development in eukaryotes. Under normal physiological conditions, intracellular polyamine concentrations are tightly regulated through a dynamic network of biosynthetic and catabolic enzymes and a poorly characterized transport system. This precise regulation ensures that the intracellular concentration of polyamines is maintained within strictly controlled limits. It has frequently been observed that the metabolism of, and the requirement for, polyamines in tumours is frequently dysregulated. Elevated levels of polyamines have been associated with breast, colon, lung, prostate, and skin cancers, and altered levels of the rate limiting enzymes in both biosynthesis and catabolism have been observed. Based on these observations and the absolute requirement for polyamines in tumour growth, the polyamine pathway is a rational target for chemoprevention and chemotherapeutics. Here we describe the recent advances made in the polyamine field and focus on the roles of polyamines and polyamine metabolism in neoplasia through a discussion of the current animal models for the polyamine pathway, chemotherapeutic strategies that target the polyamine pathway, chemotherapeutic clinical trials for polyamine pathway specific drugs, and ongoing clinical trials targeting polyamine biosynthesis. PMID:23432971

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adi, Y. A., E-mail: yudi.adi@math.uad.ac.id; Department of Mathematic Faculty of MIPA Universitas Gadjah Mada; Kusumo, F. A.

In this paper we consider a mathematical model of PI3K/AKT signaling pathways in phosphorylation AKT. PI3K/AKT pathway is an important mediator of cytokine signaling implicated in regulation of hematopoiesis. Constitutive activation of PI3K/AKT signaling pathway has been observed in Acute Meyloid Leukemia (AML) it caused by the mutation of Fms-like Tyrosine Kinase 3 in internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD), the most common molecular abnormality associated with AML. Depending upon its phosphorylation status, protein interaction, substrate availability, and localization, AKT can phosphorylate or inhibite numerous substrates in its downstream pathways that promote protein synthesis, survival, proliferation, and metabolism. Firstly, we present amore » mass action ordinary differential equation model describing AKT double phosphorylation (AKTpp) in a system with 11 equations. Finally, under the asumtion enzyme catalyst constant and steady state equilibrium, we reduce the system in 4 equation included Michaelis Menten constant. Simulation result suggested that a high concentration of PI3K and/or a low concentration of phospatase increased AKTpp activation. This result also indicates that PI3K is a potential target theraphy in AML.« less

A mathematical model of phosphorylation AKT in Acute Myeloid Leukemia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adi, Y. A.; Kusumo, F. A.; Aryati, L.; Hardianti, M. S.

2016-04-01

In this paper we consider a mathematical model of PI3K/AKT signaling pathways in phosphorylation AKT. PI3K/AKT pathway is an important mediator of cytokine signaling implicated in regulation of hematopoiesis. Constitutive activation of PI3K/AKT signaling pathway has been observed in Acute Meyloid Leukemia (AML) it caused by the mutation of Fms-like Tyrosine Kinase 3 in internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD), the most common molecular abnormality associated with AML. Depending upon its phosphorylation status, protein interaction, substrate availability, and localization, AKT can phosphorylate or inhibite numerous substrates in its downstream pathways that promote protein synthesis, survival, proliferation, and metabolism. Firstly, we present a mass action ordinary differential equation model describing AKT double phosphorylation (AKTpp) in a system with 11 equations. Finally, under the asumtion enzyme catalyst constant and steady state equilibrium, we reduce the system in 4 equation included Michaelis Menten constant. Simulation result suggested that a high concentration of PI3K and/or a low concentration of phospatase increased AKTpp activation. This result also indicates that PI3K is a potential target theraphy in AML.

Multiple pathways of crystal nucleation in an extremely supersaturated aqueous potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP) solution droplet

PubMed Central

Lee, Sooheyong; Wi, Haeng Sub; Jo, Wonhyuk; Cho, Yong Chan; Lee, Hyun Hwi; Jeong, Se-Young; Kim, Yong-Il; Lee, Geun Woo

2016-01-01

Solution studies have proposed that crystal nucleation can take more complex pathways than previously expected in classical nucleation theory, such as formation of prenucleation clusters or densified amorphous/liquid phases. These findings show that it is possible to separate fluctuations in the different order parameters governing crystal nucleation, that is, density and structure. However, a direct observation of the multipathways from aqueous solutions remains a great challenge because heterogeneous nucleation sites, such as container walls, can prevent these paths. Here, we demonstrate the existence of multiple pathways of nucleation in highly supersaturated aqueous KH2PO4 (KDP) solution using the combination of a containerless device (electrostatic levitation), and in situ micro-Raman and synchrotron X-ray scattering. Specifically, we find that, at an unprecedentedly deep level of supersaturation, a high-concentration KDP solution first transforms into a metastable crystal before reaching stability at room temperature. However, a low-concentration solution, with different local structures, directly transforms into the stable crystal phase. These apparent multiple pathways of crystallization depend on the degree of supersaturation. PMID:27791068

Multiple pathways of crystal nucleation in an extremely supersaturated aqueous potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP) solution droplet.

PubMed

Lee, Sooheyong; Wi, Haeng Sub; Jo, Wonhyuk; Cho, Yong Chan; Lee, Hyun Hwi; Jeong, Se-Young; Kim, Yong-Il; Lee, Geun Woo

2016-11-29

Solution studies have proposed that crystal nucleation can take more complex pathways than previously expected in classical nucleation theory, such as formation of prenucleation clusters or densified amorphous/liquid phases. These findings show that it is possible to separate fluctuations in the different order parameters governing crystal nucleation, that is, density and structure. However, a direct observation of the multipathways from aqueous solutions remains a great challenge because heterogeneous nucleation sites, such as container walls, can prevent these paths. Here, we demonstrate the existence of multiple pathways of nucleation in highly supersaturated aqueous KH 2 PO 4 (KDP) solution using the combination of a containerless device (electrostatic levitation), and in situ micro-Raman and synchrotron X-ray scattering. Specifically, we find that, at an unprecedentedly deep level of supersaturation, a high-concentration KDP solution first transforms into a metastable crystal before reaching stability at room temperature. However, a low-concentration solution, with different local structures, directly transforms into the stable crystal phase. These apparent multiple pathways of crystallization depend on the degree of supersaturation.

The vasorelaxant mechanisms of methanol on isolated rat aortic rings: Involvement of ion channels and signal transduction pathways.

PubMed

Bai, Y; Zhang, Q; Yang, Z; Meng, Z; Zhao, Q

2017-10-01

It is reported that methanol is generally used as an industrial solvent, antifreeze, windshield washer fluid, cooking fuel and perfume. Methanol ingestion can lead to severe metabolic disturbances, blindness, or even death. So far, few studies about its negative effects on cardiovascular system have been reported. The purpose of this study was to determine the vasoactive effect of methanol and roles of ion channels and signal transduction pathways on isolated rat aorta. The results suggested that the mechanism of methanol-induced vasorelaxation at low concentrations (<500 mM) was mediated by ATP-sensitive K + (K ATP ) and L-type Ca 2+ channels, but the mechanism at high concentrations (>600 mM) was related to K ATP , voltage-dependent K + , big-conductance Ca 2+ -activated K + , L-type Ca 2+ channels as well as prostacyclin, protein kinase C, β-adrenoceptors pathways. In addition, methanol induced a dose-dependent inhibition of vasoconstrictions caused by calcium chloride, potassium chloride, or norepinephrine. Further work is needed to investigate the relative contribution of each channel and pathway in methanol-induced vasoactive effect.

Modeling the plant uptake of organic chemicals, including the soil-air-plant pathway.

PubMed

Collins, Chris D; Finnegan, Eilis

2010-02-01

The soil-air-plant pathway is potentially important in the vegetative accumulation of organic pollutants from contaminated soils. While a number of qualitative frameworks exist for the prediction of plant accumulation of organic chemicals by this pathway, there are few quantitative models that incorporate this pathway. The aim of the present study was to produce a model that included this pathway and could quantify its contribution to the total plant contamination for a range of organic pollutants. A new model was developed from three submodels for the processes controlling plant contamination via this pathway: aerial deposition, soil volatilization, and systemic translocation. Using the combined model, the soil-air-plant pathway was predicted to account for a significant proportion of the total shoot contamination for those compounds with log K(OA) > 9 and log K(AW) < -3. For those pollutants with log K(OA) < 9 and log K(AW) > -3 there was a higher deposition of pollutant via the soil-air-plant pathway than for those chemicals with log K(OA) > 9 and log K(AW) < -3, but this was an insignificant proportion of the total shoot contamination because of the higher mobility of these compounds via the soil-root-shoot pathway. The incorporation of the soil-air-plant pathway into the plant uptake model did not significantly improve the prediction of the contamination of vegetation from polluted soils when compared across a range of studies. This was a result of the high variability between the experimental studies where the bioconcentration factors varied by 2 orders of magnitude at an equivalent log K(OA). One potential reason for this is the background air concentration of the pollutants under study. It was found background air concentrations would dominate those from soil volatilization in many situations unless there was a soil hot spot of contamination, i.e., >100 mg kg(-1).

A Model of an Integrated Immune System Pathway in Homo sapiens and Its Interaction with Superantigen Producing Expression Regulatory Pathway in Staphylococcus aureus: Comparing Behavior of Pathogen Perturbed and Unperturbed Pathway

PubMed Central

Tomar, Namrata; De, Rajat K.

2013-01-01

Response of an immune system to a pathogen attack depends on the balance between the host immune defense and the virulence of the pathogen. Investigation of molecular interactions between the proteins of a host and a pathogen helps in identifying the pathogenic proteins. It is necessary to understand the dynamics of a normally behaved host system to evaluate the capacity of its immune system upon pathogen attack. In this study, we have compared the behavior of an unperturbed and pathogen perturbed host system. Moreover, we have developed a formalism under Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) for the optimization of conflicting objective functions. We have constructed an integrated pathway system, which includes Staphylococcal Superantigen (SAg) expression regulatory pathway and TCR signaling pathway of Homo sapiens. We have implemented the method on this pathway system and observed the behavior of host signaling molecules upon pathogen attack. The entire study has been divided into six different cases, based on the perturbed/unperturbed conditions. In other words, we have investigated unperturbed and pathogen perturbed human TCR signaling pathway, with different combinations of optimization of concentrations of regulatory and signaling molecules. One of these cases has aimed at finding out whether minimization of the toxin production in a pathogen leads to the change in the concentration levels of the proteins coded by TCR signaling pathway genes in the infected host. Based on the computed results, we have hypothesized that the balance between TCR signaling inhibitory and stimulatory molecules can keep TCR signaling system into resting/stimulating state, depending upon the perturbation. The proposed integrated host-pathogen interaction pathway model has accurately reflected the experimental evidences, which we have used for validation purpose. The significance of this kind of investigation lies in revealing the susceptible interaction points that can take back the Staphylococcal Enterotoxin (SE)-challenged system within the range of normal behavior. PMID:24324645

Ethanol Attenuates Histiotrophic Nutrition Pathways and Alters the Intracellular Redox Environment and Thiol Proteome during Rat Organogenesis

PubMed Central

Jilek, Joseph L.; Sant, Karilyn E.; Cho, Katherine H.; Reed, Matthew S.; Pohl, Jan; Hansen, Jason M.; Harris, Craig

2015-01-01

Ethanol (EtOH) is a reactive oxygen-generating teratogen involved in the etiology of structural and functional developmental defects. Embryonic nutrition, redox environment, and changes in the thiol proteome following EtOH exposures (1.56.0 mg/ml) were studied in rat whole embryo culture. Glutathione (GSH) and cysteine (Cys) concentrations with their respective intracellular redox potentials (Eh) were determined using high-performance liquid chromatography. EtOH reduced GSH and Cys concentrations in embryo (EMB) and visceral yolk sac (VYS) tissues, and also in yolk sac and amniotic fluids. These changes produced greater oxidation as indicated by increasingly positive Eh values. EtOH reduced histiotrophic nutrition pathway activities as measured by the clearance of fluorescin isothiocyanate (FITC)-albumin from culture media. A significant decrease in total FITC clearance was observed at all concentrations, reaching approximately 50% at the highest dose. EtOH-induced changes to the thiol proteome were measured in EMBs and VYSs using isotope-coded affinity tags. Decreased concentrations for specific proteins from cytoskeletal dynamics and endocytosis pathways (α-actinin, α-tubulin, cubilin, and actin-related protein 2); nuclear translocation (Ran and RanBP1); and maintenance of receptor-mediated endocytosis (cubilin) were observed. Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG) pathway analysis also identified a decrease in ribosomal proteins in both EMB and VYS. Results show that EtOH interferes with nutrient uptake to reduce availability of amino acids and micronutrients required by the conceptus. Intracellular antioxidants such as GSH and Cys are depleted following EtOH and Eh values increase. Thiol proteome analysis in the EMB and VYS show selectively altered actin/cytoskeleton, endocytosis, ribosome biogenesis and function, nuclear transport, and stress-related responses. PMID:26185205

Insulin receptors internalize by a rapid, saturable pathway requiring receptor autophosphorylation and an intact juxtamembrane region

PubMed Central

1991-01-01

The effect of receptor occupancy on insulin receptor endocytosis was examined in CHO cells expressing normal human insulin receptors (CHO/IR), autophosphorylation- and internalization-deficient receptors (CHO/IRA1018), and receptors which undergo autophosphorylation but lack a sequence required for internalization (CHO/IR delta 960). The rate of [125I]insulin internalization in CHO/IR cells at 37 degrees C was rapid at physiological concentrations, but decreased markedly in the presence of increasing unlabeled insulin (ED50 = 1-3 nM insulin, or 75,000 occupied receptors/cell). In contrast, [125I]insulin internalization by CHO/IRA1018 and CHO/IR delta 960 cells was slow and was not inhibited by unlabeled insulin. At saturating insulin concentrations, the rate of internalization by wild-type and mutant receptors was similar. Moreover, depletion of intracellular potassium, which has been shown to disrupt coated pit formation, inhibited the rapid internalization of [125I]insulin at physiological insulin concentrations by CHO/IR cells, but had little or no effect on [125I]insulin uptake by CHO/IR delta 960 and CHO/IRA1018 cells or wild-type cells at high insulin concentrations. These data suggest that the insulin-stimulated entry of the insulin receptor into a rapid, coated pit-mediated internalization pathway is saturable and requires receptor autophosphorylation and an intact juxtamembrane region. Furthermore, CHO cells also contain a constitutive nonsaturable pathway which does not require receptor autophosphorylation or an intact juxtamembrane region; this second pathway is unaffected by depletion of intracellular potassium, and therefore may be independent of coated pits. Our data suggest that the ligand-stimulated internalization of the insulin receptor may require specific saturable interactions between the receptor and components of the endocytic system. PMID:1757462

Revealing mechanisms of selective, concentration-dependent potentials of 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal to induce apoptosis in cancer cells through inactivation of membrane-associated catalase.

PubMed

Bauer, Georg; Zarkovic, Neven

2015-04-01

Tumor cells generate extracellular superoxide anions and are protected against superoxide anion-mediated intercellular apoptosis-inducing signaling by the expression of membrane-associated catalase. 4-Hydroxy-2-nonenal (4-HNE), a versatile second messenger generated during lipid peroxidation, has been shown to induce apoptosis selectively in malignant cells. The findings described in this paper reveal the strong, concentration-dependent potential of 4-HNE to specifically inactivate extracellular catalase of tumor cells both indirectly and directly and to consequently trigger apoptosis in malignant cells through superoxide anion-mediated intercellular apoptosis-inducing signaling. Namely, 4-HNE caused apoptosis selectively in NOX1-expressing tumor cells through inactivation of their membrane-associated catalase, thus reactivating subsequent intercellular signaling through the NO/peroxynitrite and HOCl pathways, followed by the mitochondrial pathway of apoptosis. Concentrations of 4-HNE of 1.2 µM and higher directly inactivated membrane-associated catalase of tumor cells, whereas at lower concentrations, 4-HNE triggered a complex amplificatory pathway based on initial singlet oxygen formation through H2O2 and peroxynitrite interaction. Singlet-oxygen-dependent activation of the FAS receptor and caspase-8 increased superoxide anion generation by NOX1 and amplification of singlet oxygen generation, which allowed singlet-oxygen-dependent inactivation of catalase. 4-HNE and singlet oxygen cooperate in complex autoamplificatory loops during this process. The finding of these novel anticancer pathways may be useful for understanding the role of 4-HNE in the control of malignant cells and for the optimization of ROS-dependent therapeutic approaches including antioxidant treatments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goetsch, D.; Bieniussa, K.; Schulz, H.

This paper is an abstract of the work performed in the frame of the development of the IPSN/GRS approach in view of the EPR conceptual safety features. EPR is a pressurized water reactor which will be based on the experience gained by utilities and designers in France and in Germany. The reactor coolant boundary of a PWR includes the reactor pressure vessel (RPV), those parts of the steam generators (SGs) which contain primary coolant, the pressurizer (PSR), the reactor coolant pumps (RCPs), the main coolant lines (MCLs) with their branches as well as the other connecting pipes and all branchingmore » pipes including the second isolation valves. The present work covering the integrity of the reactor coolant boundary is mainly restricted to the integrity of the main coolant lines (MCLs) and reflects the design requirements for the main components of the reactor coolant boundary. In the following the conceptual aspects, i.e. design, manufacture, construction and operation, will be assessed. A main aspect is the definition of break postulates regarding overall safety implications.« less

[Dynamic changes of 'substantianigra-ventralislateralis-cortex' pathway neural activity coherence and neurotransmitters in rat during exhausting exercise].

PubMed

Hu, Yan-Ru; Liu, Xiao-Li; Qiao, De-Cai

2017-03-08

To reveal the possible mechanism of changes of 'substantianigra-ventralislateralis-cortex' pathway neural activity during one bout of exhausting exercise through observing the neural activity coherence between different nucleus and the concentration of extra-cellular glutamate (Glu) and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA). Male Wistar rats were randomly divided into neural activity real-time observation group, substantianigra (SNr) extracellular neurotransmitters observation group, ventralislateralis (VL) extracellular neuro-transmitters observation group and supplementary motor area (SMA) extracellular neurotransmitters observation group, 10 rats in each group. For rats of neural activity real-time observation group, by using LFPs and ECoG recording technique, and self-comparison, we simultaneously recorded the dynamic changes of neural activity of rat SNr, VL and SMA during one bout of exhausting exercise. The dynamic changes of ex-tracellular Glu and GABA in rat SNr, VL and SMA were also observed through microdialysis combined high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) technique and self-comparison method. Based on the behavioral performance, the exhausting exercise process could be di-vided into 5 different stages, the rest condition, auto exercise period, early fatigue period, exhaustion condition and recovery period. The elec-trophysiological study results showed that, the coherence between neural activity in rat SNr, VL and SMA was significant between 0~30 Hz during all the procedure of exhausting exercise. Compared with the rest condition, the microdialysis study showed that the Glu concentrations and Glu/GABA ratio in SNr were decreased significantly during automatic exercise period ( P < 0.05, P < 0.01), the GABA concentrations were increased significantly ( P < 0.05, P < 0.01), while, in VL and cortex, the Glu concentrations and Glu/GABA ratio were increased significantly ( P < 0.05, P < 0.01), the GABA concentrations were decreased significantly ( P < 0.05, P < 0.01). Under early fatigue and ex-haustion conditions, compared with the rest condition,the Glu concentrations and Glu/GABA ratio in SNr were increased significantly ( P < 0.05, P < 0.01), the GABA concentrations were decreased significantly ( P < 0.05, P < 0.01), while the Glu concentrations and Glu/GABA ratio in VL and cortex were decreased significantly ( P < 0.05, P < 0.01), the GABA concentrations were increased significantly ( P < 0.05, P < 0.01). The neural net work communication between 'substantianigra-ventralislateralis-cortex' pathway exists, changes of Glu and GABA in the nucelus of the pathway are one of the factors resulting in the changes of neural activity.

A fugacity-based indoor residential pesticide fate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Deborah H.; Furtaw, Edward J.; McKone, Thomas E.

Dermal and non-dietary pathways are potentially significant exposure pathways to pesticides used in residences. Exposure pathways include dermal contact with residues on surfaces, ingestion from hand- and object-to-mouth activities, and absorption of pesticides into food. A limited amount of data has been collected on pesticide concentrations in various residential compartments following an application. But models are needed to interpret this data and make predictions about other pesticides based on chemical properties. In this paper, we propose a mass-balance compartment model based on fugacity principles. We include air (both gas phase and aerosols), carpet, smooth flooring, and walls as model compartments.more » Pesticide concentrations on furniture and toys, and in food, are being added to the model as data becomes available. We determine the compartmental fugacity capacity and mass transfer-rate coefficient for wallboard as an example. We also present the framework and equations needed for a dynamic mass-balance model.« less

Enhanced dark hydrogen fermentation by addition of ferric oxide nanoparticles using Enterobacter aerogenes.

PubMed

Lin, Richen; Cheng, Jun; Ding, Lingkan; Song, Wenlu; Liu, Min; Zhou, Junhu; Cen, Kefa

2016-05-01

Ferric oxide nanoparticles (FONPs) were used to facilitate dark hydrogen fermentation using Enterobacter aerogenes. The hydrogen yield of glucose increased from 164.5±2.29 to 192.4±1.14mL/g when FONPs concentration increased from 0 to 200mg/L. SEM images of E. aerogenes demonstrated the existence of bacterial nanowire among cells, suggesting FONPs served as electron conduits to enhance electron transfer. TEM showed cellular internalization of FONPs, indicating hydrogenase synthesis and activity was potentially promoted due to the released iron element. When further increasing FONPs concentration to 400mg/L, the hydrogen yield of glucose decreased to 147.2±2.54mL/g. Soluble metabolic products revealed FONPs enhanced acetate pathway of hydrogen production, but weakened ethanol pathway. This shift of metabolic pathways allowed more nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide for reducing proton to hydrogen. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Psychological pathways from racial discrimination to cortisol in African American males and females.

PubMed

Lee, Daniel B; Peckins, Melissa K; Heinze, Justin E; Miller, Alison L; Assari, Shervin; Zimmerman, Marc A

2018-04-01

The association between racial discrimination (discrimination) and stress-related alterations in the neuroendocrine response-namely, cortisol secretion-is well documented in African Americans (AAs). Dysregulation in production of cortisol has been implicated as a contributor to racial health disparities. Guided by Clark et al. (Am Psychol 54(10):805-816, 1999. doi: 10.1037/0003-066X.54.10.805 ) biopsychosocial model of racism and health, the present study examined the psychological pathways that link discrimination to total cortisol concentrations in AA males and females. In a sample of 312 AA emerging adults (45.5% males; ages 21-23), symptoms of anxiety, but not depression, mediated the relation between discrimination and total concentrations of cortisol. In addition, the results did not reveal sex differences in the direct and indirect pathways. These findings advance our understanding of racial health disparities by suggesting that the psychological consequences of discrimination can uniquely promote physiologic dysregulation in AAs.

Targeting HSP70-induced thermotolerance for design of thermal sensitizers.

PubMed

Calderwood, S K; Asea, A

2002-01-01

Thermal therapy has been shown to be an extremely powerful anti-cancer agent and a potent radiation sensitizer. However, the full potential of thermal therapy is hindered by a number of considerations including highly conserved heat resistance pathways in tumour cells and inhomogeneous heating of deep-seated tumours due to energy deposition and perfusion issues. This report reviews recent progress in the development of hyperthermia sensitizing drugs designed to specifically amplify the effects of hyperthermia. Such agents might be particularly useful in situations where heating is not adequate for the full biological effect or is not homogeneously delivered to tumours. The particular pathway concentrated on is thermotolerance, a complex, inducible cellular response that leads to heat resistance. This paper will concentrate on the molecular pathways of thermotolerance induction for designing inhibitors of heat resistance/thermal sensitizers, which may allow the full potential of thermal therapy to be utilized.

Aspartate Carbamyltransferase : Site of End-Product Inhibition of the Orotate Pathway in Intact Cells of Cucurbita pepo.

PubMed

Lovatt, C J; Cheng, A H

1984-07-01

Lovatt et al. (1979 Plant Physiol 64: 562-569) have previously demonstrated that end-product inhibition functions as a mechanism regulating the activity of the orotic acid pathway in intact cells of roots excised from 2-day-old squash plants (Cucurbita pepo L. cv Early Prolific Straightneck). Uridine (0.5 millimolar final concentration) or one of its metabolites inhibited the incorporation of NaH(14)CO(3), but not [(14)C]carbamylaspartate or [(14)C]orotic acid, into uridine nucleotides (SigmaUMP). Thus, regulation of de novo pyrimidine biosynthesis was demonstrated to occur at one or both of the first two reactions of the orotic acid pathway, those catalyzed by carbamylphosphate synthetase (CPSase) and aspartate carbamyltransferase (ACTase). The results of the present study provide evidence that ACTase alone is the site of feedback control by added uridine or one of its metabolites. Evidence demonstrating regulation of the orotic acid pathway by end-product inhibition at ACTase, but not at CPSase, includes the following observations: (a) addition of uridine (0.5 millimolar final concentration) inhibited the incorporation of NaH(14)CO(3) into SigmaUMP by 80% but did not inhibit the incorporation of NaH(14)CO(3) into arginine; (b) inhibition of the orotate pathway by added uridine was not reversed by supplying exogenous ornithine (5 millimolar final concentration), while the incorporation of NaH(14)CO(3) into arginine was stimulated more than 15-fold when both uridine and ornithine were added; (c) incorporation of NaH(14)CO(3) into arginine increased, with or without added ornithine when the de novo pyrimidine pathway was inhibited by added uridine; and (d) in assays employing cell-free extracts prepared from 2-day-old squash roots, the activity of ACTase, but not CPSase, was inhibited by added pyrimidine nucleotides.

Hysteresis and parent-metabolite analyses unravel characteristic pesticide transport mechanisms in a mixed land use catchment.

PubMed

Tang, Ting; Stamm, Christian; van Griensven, Ann; Seuntjens, Piet; Bronders, Jan

2017-11-01

To properly estimate and manage pesticide occurrence in urban rivers, it is essential, but often highly challenging, to identify the key pesticide transport pathways in association to the main sources. This study examined the concentration-discharge hysteresis behaviour (hysteresis analysis) for three pesticides and the parent-metabolite concentration dynamics for two metabolites at sites with different levels of urban influence in a mixed land use catchment (25 km 2 ) within the Swiss Greifensee area, aiming to identify the dominant pesticide transport pathways. Combining an adapted hysteresis classification framework with prior knowledge of the field conditions and pesticide usage, we demonstrated the possibility of using hysteresis analysis to qualitatively infer the dominant pesticide transport pathway in mixed land-use catchments. The analysis showed that hysteresis types, and therefore the dominant transport pathway, vary among pesticides, sites and rainfall events. Hysteresis loops mostly correspond to dominant transport by flow components with intermediate response time, although pesticide sources indicate that fast transport pathways are responsible in most cases (e.g. urban runoff and combined sewer overflows). The discrepancy suggests the fast transport pathways can be slowed down due to catchment storages, such as topographic depressions in agricultural areas, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and other artificial storage units (e.g. retention basins) in urban areas. Moreover, the WWTP was identified as an important factor modifying the parent-metabolite concentration dynamics during rainfall events. To properly predict and manage pesticide occurrence in catchments of mixed land uses, the hydrological delaying effect and chemical processes within the artificial structures need to be accounted for, in addition to the catchment hydrology and the diversity of pesticide sources. This study demonstrates that in catchments with diverse pesticide sources and complex transport mechanisms, the adapted hysteresis analysis can help to improve our understanding on pesticide transport behaviours and provide a basis for effective management strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitation of NAD+ biosynthesis from the salvage pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sporty, J; Lin, S; Kato, M

2009-02-18

Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD{sup +}) is synthesized via two major pathways in prokaryotic and eukaryotic systems: the de novo biosynthesis pathway from tryptophan precursors, or by the salvage biosynthesis pathway from either extracellular nicotinic acid or various intracellular NAD{sup +} decomposition products. NAD{sup +} biosynthesis via the salvage pathway has been linked to an increase in yeast replicative lifespan under calorie restriction (CR). However, the relative contribution of each pathway to NAD{sup +} biosynthesis under both normal and CR conditions is not known. Here, we have performed lifespan, NAD{sup +} and NADH (the reduced form of NAD{sup +}) analyses onmore » BY4742 wild type, NAD+ salvage pathway knockout (npt1{Delta}), and NAD+ de novo pathway knockout (qpt1{Delta}) yeast strains cultured in media containing either 2% glucose (normal growth) or 0.5% glucose (CR). We have utilized {sup 14}C labeled nicotinic acid in the culture media combined with HPLC speciation and both UV and {sup 14}C detection to quantitate the total amounts of NAD{sup +} and NADH and the amounts derived from the salvage pathway. We observe that wild type and qpt1{Delta} yeast exclusively utilize extracellular nicotinic acid for NAD{sup +} and NADH biosynthesis under both the 2% and 0.5% glucose growth conditions suggesting that the de novo pathway plays little role if a functional salvage pathway is present. We also observe that NAD{sup +} concentrations decrease in all three strains under CR. However, unlike the wild type strain, NADH concentrations do not decrease and NAD{sup +}:NADH ratios do not increase under CR for either knockout strain. Lifespan analyses reveal that CR results in a lifespan increase of approximately 25% for the wild type and qpt1{Delta} strains, while no increase in lifespan is observed for the npt1{Delta} strain. In combination these data suggest that having a functional salvage pathway is more important than the absolute levels of NAD{sup +} or NADH for lifespan extension under CR.« less

Bisphenol AF and Bisphenol B Exert Higher Estrogenic Effects than Bisphenol A via G Protein-Coupled Estrogen Receptor Pathway.

PubMed

Cao, Lin-Ying; Ren, Xiao-Min; Li, Chuan-Hai; Zhang, Jing; Qin, Wei-Ping; Yang, Yu; Wan, Bin; Guo, Liang-Hong

2017-10-03

Numerous studies have indicated estrogenic disruption effects of bisphenol A (BPA) analogues. Previous mechanistic studies were mainly focused on their genomic activities on nuclear estrogen receptor pathway. However, their nongenomic effects through G protein-coupled estrogen receptor (GPER) pathway remain poorly understood. Here, using a SKBR3 cell-based fluorescence competitive binding assay, we found six BPA analogues bound to GPER directly, with bisphenol AF (BPAF) and bisphenol B (BPB) displaying much higher (∼9-fold) binding affinity than BPA. Molecular docking also demonstrated the binding of these BPA analogues to GPER. By measuring calcium mobilization and cAMP production in SKBR3 cells, we found the binding of these BPA analogues to GPER lead to the activation of subsequent signaling pathways. Consistent with the binding results, BPAF and BPB presented higher agonistic activity than BPA with the lowest effective concentration (LOEC) of 10 nM. Moreover, based on the results of Boyden chamber and wound-healing assays, BPAF and BPB displayed higher activity in promoting GPER mediated SKBR3 cell migration than BPA with the LOEC of 100 nM. Overall, we found two BPA analogues BPAF and BPB could exert higher estrogenic effects than BPA via GPER pathway at nanomolar concentrations.

Dose-dependent transitions in Nrf2-mediated adaptive response and related stress responses to hypochlorous acid in mouse macrophages

PubMed Central

Woods, Courtney G.; Fu, Jingqi; Xue, Peng; Hou, Yongyong; Pluta, Linda J.; Yang, Longlong; Zhang, Qiang; Thomas, Russell S.; Andersen, Melvin E.; Pi, Jingbo

2009-01-01

Hypochlorous acid (HOCl) is potentially an important source of cellular oxidative stress. Human HOCl exposure can occur from chlorine gas inhalation or from endogenous sources of HOCl, such as respiratory burst by phagocytes. Transcription factor Nrf2 is a key regulator of cellular redox status and serves as a primary source of defense against oxidative stress. We recently demonstrated that HOCl activates Nrf2-mediated antioxidant response in cultured mouse macrophages in a biphasic manner. In an effort to determine whether Nrf2 pathways overlap with other stress pathways, gene expression profiling was performed in RAW 264.7 macrophages exposed to HOCl using whole genome mouse microarrays. Benchmark dose (BMD) analysis on gene expression data revealed that Nrf2-mediated antioxidant response and protein ubiquitination were the most sensitive biological pathways that were activated in response to low concentrations of HOCl (< 0.35 mM). Genes involved in chromatin architecture maintenance and DNA-dependent transcription were also sensitive to very low doses. Moderate concentrations of HOCl (0.35 to 1.4 mM) caused maximal activation of the Nrf2-pathway and innate immune response genes, such as IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10 and chemokines. At even higher concentrations of HOCl (2.8 to 3.5 mM) there was a loss of Nrf2-target gene expression with increased expression of numerous heat shock and histone cluster genes, AP-1-family genes, cFos and Fra1 and DNA damage-inducible Gadd45 genes. These findings confirm an Nrf2-centric mechanism of action of HOCl in mouse macrophages and provide evidence of interactions between Nrf2, inflammatory, and other stress pathways. PMID:19376150

Kinetic studies of the folding of heterodimeric monellin: evidence for switching between alternative parallel pathways.

PubMed

Aghera, Nilesh; Udgaonkar, Jayant B

2012-07-13

Determining whether or not a protein uses multiple pathways to fold is an important goal in protein folding studies. When multiple pathways are present, defined by transition states that differ in their compactness and structure but not significantly in energy, they may manifest themselves by causing the dependence on denaturant concentration of the logarithm of the observed rate constant of folding to have an upward curvature. In this study, the folding mechanism of heterodimeric monellin [double-chain monellin (dcMN)] has been studied over a range of protein and guanidine hydrochloride (GdnHCl) concentrations, using the intrinsic tryptophan fluorescence of the protein as the probe for the folding reaction. Refolding is shown to occur in multiple kinetic phases. In the first stage of refolding, which is silent to any change in intrinsic fluorescence, the two chains of monellin bind to one another to form an encounter complex. Interrupted folding experiments show that the initial encounter complex folds to native dcMN via two folding routes. A productive folding intermediate population is identified on one route but not on both of these routes. Two intermediate subpopulations appear to form in a fast kinetic phase, and native dcMN forms in a slow kinetic phase. The chevron arms for both the fast and slow phases of refolding are shown to have upward curvatures, suggesting that at least two pathways each defined by a different intermediate are operational during these kinetic phases of structure formation. Refolding switches from one pathway to the other as the GdnHCl concentration is increased. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transcriptomic analysis in the developing zebrafish embryo after compound exposure: Individual gene expression and pathway regulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hermsen, Sanne A.B., E-mail: Sanne.Hermsen@rivm.nl; Department of Toxicogenomics, Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD, Maastricht; Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences

2013-10-01

The zebrafish embryotoxicity test is a promising alternative assay for developmental toxicity. Classically, morphological assessment of the embryos is applied to evaluate the effects of compound exposure. However, by applying differential gene expression analysis the sensitivity and predictability of the test may be increased. For defining gene expression signatures of developmental toxicity, we explored the possibility of using gene expression signatures of compound exposures based on commonly expressed individual genes as well as based on regulated gene pathways. Four developmental toxic compounds were tested in concentration-response design, caffeine, carbamazepine, retinoic acid and valproic acid, and two non-embryotoxic compounds, D-mannitol andmore » saccharin, were included. With transcriptomic analyses we were able to identify commonly expressed genes, which were mostly development related, after exposure to the embryotoxicants. We also identified gene pathways regulated by the embryotoxicants, suggestive of their modes of action. Furthermore, whereas pathways may be regulated by all compounds, individual gene expression within these pathways can differ for each compound. Overall, the present study suggests that the use of individual gene expression signatures as well as pathway regulation may be useful starting points for defining gene biomarkers for predicting embryotoxicity. - Highlights: • The zebrafish embryotoxicity test in combination with transcriptomics was used. • We explored two approaches of defining gene biomarkers for developmental toxicity. • Four compounds in concentration-response design were tested. • We identified commonly expressed individual genes as well as regulated gene pathways. • Both approaches seem suitable starting points for defining gene biomarkers.« less

Low concentrations of bisphenol a suppress thyroid hormone receptor transcription through a nongenomic mechanism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheng, Zhi-Guo; Tang, Yuan; Liu, Yu-Xiang

Bisphenol (BPA) is one of the highest-volume chemicals produced worldwide, and human exposure to BPA is thought to be ubiquitous. Various rodent and in vitro studies have shown that thyroid hormone (TH) function can be impaired by BPA. However, it is still unknown if low concentrations of BPA can suppress the thyroid hormone receptor (TR) transcription. The present study aims to investigate the possible suppressing effects of low concentrations of BPA on TR transcription and the involved mechanism(s) in CV-1 cells derived from cercopithecus aethiops monkey kidneys. Using gene reporter assays, BPA at concentrations as low as 10{sup −9} Mmore » suppresses TR or steroid receptor coactivator-1(SRC-1)-enhanced TR transcription, but not reducing TR/SRC-1 interaction in mammalian two-hybrid and glutathione S-transferase pull-down studies. It has been further shown that both nuclear receptor co-repressor (N-CoR) and silencing mediator for retinoid and thyroid hormone receptors (SMRT) are recruited to the TR-β1 by BPA in the presence of physiologic concentrations of T3 or T4. However, the overexpression of β3 integrin or c-Src significantly reduces BPA-induced recruitment of N-CoR/SMRT to TR or suppression of TR transcription. Furthermore, BPA inhibits the T3/T4-mediated interassociation of the β3 integrin/c-Src/MAPK/TR-β1 pathways by the co-immunoprecipitation. These results indicate that low concentrations of BPA suppress the TR transcription by disrupting physiologic concentrations of T3/T4-mediated β3 integrin/c-Src/MAPK/TR-β1 pathways, followed by recruiting N-CoR/SMRT to TR-β1, providing a novel insight regarding the TH disruption effects of low concentration BPA. -- Highlights: ► Environmentally relevant concentrations of BPA suppress TR transcription. ► BPA recruits the N-CoR/SMRT to TR under the physiologic concentrations of T3/T4. ► BPA disrupts T3/T4-mediated β3 integrin/c-Src/MAPK/TR-β1 pathways.« less

Grassland species differentially regulate proline concentrations under future climate conditions: an integrated biochemical and modelling approach.

PubMed

AbdElgawad, Hamada; De Vos, Dirk; Zinta, Gaurav; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han

2015-10-01

Proline (Pro) is a versatile metabolite playing a role in the protection of plants against environmental stresses. To gain a deeper understanding of the regulation of Pro metabolism under predicted future climate conditions, including drought stress, elevated temperature and CO2 , we combined measurements in contrasting grassland species (two grasses and two legumes) at multiple organisational levels, that is, metabolite concentrations, enzyme activities and gene expression. Drought stress (D) activates Pro biosynthesis and represses its catabolism, and elevated temperature (DT) further elevated its content. Elevated CO2 attenuated the DT effect on Pro accumulation. Computational pathway control analysis allowed a mechanistic understanding of the regulatory changes in Pro metabolism. This analysis indicates that the experimentally observed coregulation of multiple enzymes is more effective in modulating Pro concentrations than regulation of a single step. Pyrroline-5-carboxylate synthetase (P5CS) and pyrroline-5-carboxylate reductase (P5CR) play a central role in grasses (Lolium perenne, Poa pratensis), and arginase (ARG), ornithine aminotransferase (OAT) and P5CR play a central role in legumes (Medicago lupulina, Lotus corniculatus). Different strategies in the regulation of Pro concentrations under stress conditions were observed. In grasses the glutamate pathway is activated predominantly, and in the legumes the ornithine pathway, possibly related to differences in N-nutritional status. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Distribution and dissipation pathways of nonylphenol polyethoxylates in the Yellow River: Site investigation and lab-scale studies.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Wu, Yinghong; Sun, Hongwen; Xu, Jian; Dai, Shugui

2006-09-01

Spatial distribution of nonylphenol polyethoxylates (NPEOs) and nonylphenol (NP) was investigated in a field study in Lanzhou Reach of the Yellow River. NPEOs and their metabolites were found in the river, with the maximum dissolved concentrations of 6.38 nmol/L for NPEOs, 0.19 nmol/L for nonylphenol ethoxy acetic acids (NPECs) and 0.79 nmol/L for NP, respectively. The maximum concentrations in the sediment and suspended particle samples were 1.50 and 5.09 nmol/g for NPEOs and NP, respectively. The effects of particles, light and microorganism on the dissipation of NPEOs in the river water were investigated based on lab-scale experiments. When natural particles were removed, 72% and 22% degradation of NPEOs were achieved at 120 h in non-sterile and sterile conditions with light, respectively. Different concentrations of NPECs were also observed in these experiments. When suspended particle matters (SPMs) were present, about 38-50% of NPEOs were sorbed to the particulate phase in only 1 h. As a result, the degradation of NPEOs and production of NPECs were inhibited. However, the combined sorption and degradation in the presence of SPMs resulted in lower dissolved NPEO concentrations than those in the absence of SPMs. Biodegradation was the most important pathway for NPEOs degradation in the river water, while NPECs seemed to be produced through both biological and abiological pathways.

Concentrations of metals in water, sediment, biofilm, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish in the Boulder River watershed, Montana, and the role of colloids in metal uptake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farag, A.M.; Nimick, D.A.; Kimball, B.A.; Church, S.E.; Harper, D.D.; Brumbaugh, W.G.

2007-01-01

To characterize the partitioning of metals in a stream ecosystem, concentrations of trace metals including As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn were measured in water, colloids, sediment, biofilm (also referred to as aufwuchs), macroinvertebrates, and fish collected from the Boulder River watershed, Montana. Median concentrations of Cd, Cu, and Zn in water throughout the watershed exceeded the U.S. EPA acute and chronic criteria for protection of aquatic life. Concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in sediment were sufficient in the tributaries to cause invertebrate toxicity. The concentrations of As, Cu, Cd, Pb, and Zn in invertebrates from lower Cataract Creek (63, 339, 59, 34, and 2,410 μg/g dry wt, respectively) were greater than the concentrations in invertebrates from the Clark Fork River watershed, Montana (19, 174, 2.3, 15, and 648 μg/g, respectively), that were associated with reduced survival, growth, and health of cutthroat trout fed diets composed of those invertebrates. Colloids and biofilm seem to play a critical role in the pathway of metals into the food chain and concentrations of As, Cu, Pb, and Zn in these two components are significantly correlated. We suggest that transfer of metals associated with Fe colloids to biological components of biofilm is an important pathway where metals associated with abiotic components are first available to biotic components. The significant correlations suggest that Cd, Cu, and Zn may move independently to biota (biofilm, invertebrates, or fish tissues) from water and sediment. The possibility exists that Cd, Cu, and Zn concentrations increase in fish tissues as a result of direct contact with water and sediment and indirect exposure through the food chain. However, uptake through the food chain to fish may be more important for As. Although As concentrations in colloids and biofilm were significantly correlated with As water concentrations, As concentrations in fish tissues were not correlated with water. The pathway for Pb into biological components seems to begin with sediment because concentrations of Pb in water were not significantly correlated with any other component and because concentrations of Pb in the water were often below detection limits.

Simulation of the fate of Boscalid and its transformation product 4-Chlorobenzoic acid in a vineyard-terraces catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vollert, Dieter; Gassmann, Matthias; Olsson, Oliver; Kümmerer, Klaus

2017-04-01

In the viniculture fungicides are commonly applied foliar on the plant surface, resulting in high concentrations in runoff water. The fungicide Boscalid occurred frequently and in high concentrations in runoff water in the Loechernbach catchment, a 180 ha vineyard catchment in south-west Germany, during rainfall-runoff events in 2016. The catchment is characterized by a typical terraces structure and the connection of a dense road network. The washing off from drift-depositions on the streets is expected to be a major pathway for pesticides. The main objective of this study was the provision of a catchment model to simulate the transport and transformation processes of Boscalid. Based on this model, source areas of Boscalid residue pollution and its export pathways will be identified and provide urgently needed information for the development of water pollution control strategies. The distributed, process-based, reactive transport catchment model ZIN-AgriTra was used for the evaluation of the pesticide mobilization and the export processes. The hydrological model was successfully calibrated for a 6-month high-resolution time series of discharge data. Pesticide modelling was calibrated for single rainfall events after Boscalid application. Additionally, the transformation product 4-Chlorobenzoic acid has been simulated using literature substance parameters, in order to gain information about anticipated environmental concentrations. The pathways for the discharge of Boscalid were characterized and the streets were confirmed as major pathway for the pesticide discharge in the catchment. The main Boscalid loss occured during the first flush after a storm event containing concentrations up to 10 µg/l. The results show that storage on surfaces without sorption contributes significantly to the export of pesticides through the first flush. Therefore, the mobilization process affects a combination of both sorptive (e.g. at the soil) and non-sorptive (e.g. on the surface) storages at the roads. Furthermore, measurements and simulation results show that there are background pesticide concentrations, an order of magnitude lower than the first flush concentration, for the whole simulation period. Additionally, almost half of the applied Boscalid still remains as residue in the soil at the end of the simulated 6-month period, because of slow degradation rates of Boscalid. The transformation product 4-Chlorobenzoic acid was simulated to have concentrations in the range of 0.1 µg/l. The model assumes that subsurface flow is the major loss pathway for this substance. Concluding, the introduced catchment model is an applicable tool to simulate the individual processes of the Boscalid fate in the vineyard catchment. It was confirmed that roads receiving pesticide drift are the major loss areas of Boscalid in the Loechernbach catchment.

Complement inhibiting properties of dragon's blood from Croton draco.

PubMed

Tsacheva, Ivanka; Rostan, Joerg; Iossifova, Tania; Vogler, Bernhard; Odjakova, Mariela; Navas, Hernan; Kostova, Ivanka; Kojouharova, Michaela; Kraus, Wolfgang

2004-01-01

The latex of Croton draco, its extracts and several latex components have been investigated for their influence on both classical (CP) and alternative (AP) activation pathways of the complement system using a hemolytic assay. The best inhibition was found for the classical pathway. The latex, ethyl acetate and ethyl ether extracts exhibited extremely high inhibition on the CP (94, 90 and 77%, respectively) at a concentration of 1 mg/ml. The flavonoid myricitrin, the alkaloid taspine and the cyclopeptides P1 and P2 showed high inhibition on CP (83, 91, 78 and 63%, respectively) at a concentration of 0.9 mM.

Crystallization Pathways in Biomineralization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiner, Steve; Addadi, Lia

2011-08-01

A crystallization pathway describes the movement of ions from their source to the final product. Cells are intimately involved in biological crystallization pathways. In many pathways the cells utilize a unique strategy: They temporarily concentrate ions in intracellular membrane-bound vesicles in the form of a highly disordered solid phase. This phase is then transported to the final mineralization site, where it is destabilized and crystallizes. We present four case studies, each of which demonstrates specific aspects of biological crystallization pathways: seawater uptake by foraminifera, calcite spicule formation by sea urchin larvae, goethite formation in the teeth of limpets, and guanine crystal formation in fish skin and spider cuticles. Three representative crystallization pathways are described, and aspects of the different stages of crystallization are discussed. An in-depth understanding of these complex processes can lead to new ideas for synthetic crystallization processes of interest to materials science.

Vision Changes after Space Flight Are Related to Alterations in Folate-Dependent One-Carbon Metabolism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Scott M.; Gibson, C. Robert; Mader, Thomas H.; Ericson, Karen; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Heer, Martina; Zwart, Sara R.

2011-01-01

About 20% of astronauts on International Space Station missions have developed measurable ophthalmic changes after flight. This study was conducted to determine whether the folate-dependent 1-carbon pathway is altered in these individuals. Data were modeled to evaluate differences between individuals with ophthalmic changes (n=5) and those without them (n=15). We also correlated mean preflight serum concentrations of the 1-carbon metabolites with changes in measured refraction after flight. Serum homocysteine (HCy), cystathionine, 2-methylcitric acid, and methylmalonic acid concentrations were 25%-45% higher (P<0.001) in astronauts with ophthalmic changes than in those without them. These differences existed before, during, and after flight. Preflight serum HCy and cystathionine, and in-flight serum folate, were significantly (P<0.05) correlated with postflight change in refraction, and preflight serum concentrations of 2-methylcitric acid tended to be associated (P=0.06) with ophthalmic changes. The biochemical differences observed in those with vision issues strongly suggests impairment of the folate-dependent 1-carbon transfer pathway. Impairment of this pathway, by polymorphisms, diet or other means, may interact with components of the microgravity environment to influence these pathophysiologic changes. This study was funded by the NASA Human Research Program.

Production of hydrogen, ethanol and volatile fatty acids from the seaweed carbohydrate mannitol.

PubMed

Xia, Ao; Jacob, Amita; Herrmann, Christiane; Tabassum, Muhammad Rizwan; Murphy, Jerry D

2015-10-01

Fermentative hydrogen from seaweed is a potential biofuel of the future. Mannitol, which is a typical carbohydrate component of seaweed, was used as a substrate for hydrogen fermentation. The theoretical specific hydrogen yield (SHY) of mannitol was calculated as 5 mol H2/mol mannitol (615.4 mL H2/g mannitol) for acetic acid pathway, 3 mol H2/mol mannitol (369.2 mL H2/g mannitol) for butyric acid pathway and 1 mol H2/mol mannitol (123.1 mL H2/g mannitol) for lactic acid and ethanol pathways. An optimal SHY of 1.82 mol H2/mol mannitol (224.2 mL H2/g mannitol) was obtained by heat pre-treated anaerobic digestion sludge under an initial pH of 8.0, NH4Cl concentration of 25 mM, NaCl concentration of 50mM and mannitol concentration of 10 g/L. The overall energy conversion efficiency achieved was 96.1%. The energy was contained in the end products, hydrogen (17.2%), butyric acid (38.3%) and ethanol (34.2%). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observed and Projected Changes in Thermal Growing Degree-Days and Growing Season and Their Divergent Responses to Warming over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, H.

2017-12-01

Vegetation growth and phenology are largely regulated by the growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS). By choosing 0°C, 5°C and 10°C, three key based temperatures (Tb) for vegetation growth, the GDD and GS in China during the observed period (1960-2011) were developed using homogenized daily mean temperatures (Td) in 536 meteorological stations. In addition, the GDD10 and GS10 in China were projected under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs) during 1961-2099, using the Td (0.5°×0.5°) derived from five general circulation models (GCMs), after model evaluation. Advance in the start of the growing season (SOS; 4.86-6.71 days; SOS0 > SOS5 > SOS10) and delay in the end of the growing season (EOS; 4.32-6.19 days; EOS0 < EOS5 < EOS10) lengthened the GS by 10.76-11.02 days during the observed period, while the GDD has totally increased by 218.92-339.40°C·d (GDD0 > GDD5 > GDD10), in China as a whole. Each observed variation has a substantial acceleration mostly in 1987 or 1996, and a speed reduction or a trend reversal in the early 2000s. Increases in the GDD10 and GS10 would continue in the 21st century, causing northward shifts in the temperature zones. Finally in the long-term (2071-2099), the nationally average GDD10 and GS10 would be 279.1°C·d higher and 16.5 d longer for RCP 2.6, and 964.4°C·d higher and 50.3 d longer for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981-2010. Regionally, the GDD enhancement were stronger in the tropics, east, northeast and northwest China during the observed period, and tend to be in southern China in the future. The largest GS extensions are consistently in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Alpine zone, particularly in the future. During the observed period, advance in SOS and delay in EOS drove the GS extensions in the eastern monsoon zone and northwest arid/semi-arid zone respectively. In the future, an advanced SOS drives the GS extension in the northern (> ca. 33°N) Tibetan Alpine zone, the mountainous areas in northeast China, and south of the Tropic of Cancer. The GDD and GS showed positive sensitivity to the temperature (GDD0 > GDD5 > GDD10, GS0 > GS5 > GS10). Both the GDD10 and GS10 in the Tibetan Alpine zone will be increasingly sensitive to warming, from the near-term (2011-2040) to the long-term, while the temperature sensitivity of the GS10 in other zones will decrease.

Fluoride induces apoptosis in H9c2 cardiomyocytes via the mitochondrial pathway.

PubMed

Yan, Xiaoyan; Wang, Lu; Yang, Xia; Qiu, Yulan; Tian, Xiaolin; Lv, Yi; Tian, Fengjie; Song, Guohua; Wang, Tong

2017-09-01

Numerous studies have shown that chronic excessive fluoride intake can adversely affect different organ systems. In particular, the cardiovascular system is susceptible to disruption by a high concentration of fluoride. The objectives of this study were to explore the mechanism of apoptosis by detecting the toxic effects of different concentrations of sodium fluoride (NaF) in H9c2 cells exposed for up to 96 h. NaF not only inhibited H9c2 cell proliferation but also induced apoptosis and morphological damage. With increasing NaF concentrations, early apoptosis of H9c2 cells was increased while the mitochondrial membrane potential was decreased. Compared with the control group, the mRNA levels of caspase-3, caspase-9, and cytochrome c all increased with increasing concentrations of NaF. In summary, these data suggest that apoptosis is involved in NaF-induced H9c2 cell toxicity and that activation of the mitochondrial pathway may occur. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regulation of renal urea transport by vasopressin.

PubMed

Sands, Jeff M; Blount, Mitsi A; Klein, Janet D

2011-01-01

Terrestrial life would be miserable without the ability to concentrate urine. Production of concentrated urine requires complex interactions among the nephron segments and vasculature in the kidney medulla. In addition to water channels (aquaporins) and sodium transporters, urea transporters are critically important to the theories proposed to explain the physiologic processes occurring when urine is concentrated. Vasopressin (anti-diuretic hormone) is the key hormone regulating the production of concentrated urine. Vasopressin rapidly increases water and urea transport in the terminal inner medullary collecting duct (IMCD). Vasopressin rapidly increases urea permeability in the IMCD through increases in phosphorylation and apical plasma-membrane accumulation of the urea transporter A1 (UT-A1). Vasopressin acts through two cAMP-dependent signaling pathways in the IMCD: protein kinase A and exchange protein activated by cAMP Epac. Protein kinase A phosphorylates UT-A1 at serines 486 and 499. In summary, vasopressin regulates urea transport acutely by increasing UT-A1 phosphorylation and the apical plasma-membrane accumulation of UT-A1 through two cAMP-dependent pathways.

Phenylbutyrate improves nitrogen disposal via alternative pathway without eliciting an increase in protein breakdown and catabolism in control and ornithine transcarbamylace-deficient patients

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phenylbutyrate (PB) is a drug used in urea cycle disorder patients to elicit alternative pathways for nitrogen disposal. However, PB decreases plasma branched chain amino acid (BCAA) concentrations and prior research suggests that PB may increase leucine oxidation, indicating increased protein degra...

A limit cycle oscillator model for cycling mood variations of bipolar disorder patients derived from cellular biochemical reaction equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, T. D.

2013-08-01

We derive a nonlinear limit cycle model for oscillatory mood variations as observed in patients with cycling bipolar disorder. To this end, we consider two signaling pathways leading to the activation of two enzymes that play a key role for cellular and neural processes. We model pathway cross-talk in terms of an inhibitory impact of the first pathway on the second and an excitatory impact of the second on the first. The model also involves a negative feedback loop (inhibitory self-regulation) for the first pathway and a positive feedback loop (excitatory self-regulation) for the second pathway. We demonstrate that due to the cross-talk the biochemical dynamics is described by an oscillator equation. Under disease-free conditions the oscillatory system exhibits a stable fixed point. The breakdown of the self-inhibition of the first pathway at higher concentration levels is studied by means of a scalar control parameter ξ, where ξ equal to zero refers to intact self-inhibition at all concentration levels. Under certain conditions, stable limit cycle solutions emerge at critical parameter values of ξ larger than zero. These oscillations mimic pathological cycling mood variations that emerge due to a disease-induced bifurcation. Consequently, our modeling analysis supports the notion of bipolar disorder as a dynamical disease. In addition, our study establishes a connection between mechanistic biochemical modeling of bipolar disorder and phenomenological nonlinear oscillator approaches to bipolar disorder suggested in the literature.

Combustion modeling and kinetic rate calculations for a stoichiometric cyclohexane flame. 1. Major reaction pathways.

PubMed

Zhang, Hongzhi R; Huynh, Lam K; Kungwan, Nawee; Yang, Zhiwei; Zhang, Shaowen

2007-05-17

The Utah Surrogate Mechanism was extended in order to model a stoichiometric premixed cyclohexane flame (P = 30 Torr). Generic rates were assigned to reaction classes of hydrogen abstraction, beta scission, and isomerization, and the resulting mechanism was found to be adequate in describing the combustion chemistry of cyclohexane. Satisfactory results were obtained in comparison with the experimental data of oxygen, major products and important intermediates, which include major soot precursors of C2-C5 unsaturated species. Measured concentrations of immediate products of fuel decomposition were also successfully reproduced. For example, the maximum concentrations of benzene and 1,3-butadiene, two major fuel decomposition products via competing pathways, were predicted within 10% of the measured values. Ring-opening reactions compete with those of cascading dehydrogenation for the decomposition of the conjugate cyclohexyl radical. The major ring-opening pathways produce 1-buten-4-yl radical, molecular ethylene, and 1,3-butadiene. The butadiene species is formed via beta scission after a 1-4 internal hydrogen migration of 1-hexen-6-yl radical. Cascading dehydrogenation also makes an important contribution to the fuel decomposition and provides the exclusive formation pathway of benzene. Benzene formation routes via combination of C2-C4 hydrocarbon fragments were found to be insignificant under current flame conditions, inferred by the later concentration peak of fulvene, in comparison with benzene, because the analogous species series for benzene formation via dehydrogenation was found to be precursors with regard to parent species of fulvene.

Quantification of vapor intrusion pathways into a slab-on-ground building under varying environmental conditions.

PubMed

Patterson, Bradley M; Davis, Greg B

2009-02-01

Potential hydrocarbon-vapor intrusion pathways into a building through a concrete slab-on-ground were investigated and quantified under a variety of environmental conditions to elucidate the potential mechanisms for indoor air contamination. Vapor discharge from the uncovered open ground soil adjacent to the building and subsequent advection into the building was unlikely due to the low soil-gas concentrations at the edge of the building as a result of aerobic biodegradation of hydrocarbon vapors. When the building's interior was under ambient pressure, a flux of vapors into the building due to molecular diffusion of vapors through the building's concrete slab (cyclohexane 11 and methylcyclohexane 31 mg m(-2) concrete slab day(-1)) and short-term (up to 8 h) cyclical pressure-driven advection of vapors through an artificial crack (cyclohexane 4.2 x 10(3) and methylcyclohexane 1.2 x 10(4) mg m(-2) cracks day(-1)) was observed. The average subslab vapor concentration under the center of the building was 25,000 microg L(-1). Based on the measured building's interiorvapor concentrations and the building's air exchange rate of 0.66 h(-1), diffusion of vapors through the concrete slab was the dominantvapor intrusion pathway and cyclical pressure exchanges resulted in a near zero advective flux. When the building's interior was under a reduced pressure (-12 Pa), advective transport through cracks or gaps in the concrete slab (cyclohexane 340 and methylcyclohexane 1100 mg m(-2) cracks day(-1)) was the dominant vapor intrusion pathway.

Pathway-based approaches for assessment of real-time exposure to an estrogenic wastewater treatment plant effluent on fathead minnow reproduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cavallin, Jenna E.; Jensen, Kathleen M.; Kahl, Michael D.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Lee, Kathy E.; Schroeder, Anthony L.; Mayasich, Joe; Eid, Evan P.; Nelson, Krysta R.; Milsk, Rebecca Y.; Blackwell, Brett R.; Berninger, Jason P.; LaLone, Carlie A.; Blanskma, Chad; Jicha, Terri M.; Elonen, Colleen M.; Johnson, Rodney C.; Ankley, Gerald T.

2016-01-01

Wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents are known contributors of chemical mixtures into the environment. Of particular concern are endocrine-disrupting compounds, such as estrogens, which can affect the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis function in exposed organisms. The present study examined reproductive effects in fathead minnows exposed for 21 d to a historically estrogenic WWTP effluent. Fathead minnow breeding pairs were held in control water or 1 of 3 effluent concentrations (5%, 20%, and 100%) in a novel onsite, flow-through system providing real-time exposure. The authors examined molecular and biochemical endpoints representing key events along adverse outcome pathways linking estrogen receptor activation and other molecular initiating events to reproductive impairment. In addition, the authors used chemical analysis of the effluent to construct a chemical-gene interaction network to aid in targeted gene expression analyses and identifying potentially impacted biological pathways. Cumulative fecundity was significantly reduced in fish exposed to 100% effluent but increased in those exposed to 20% effluent, the approximate dilution factor in the receiving waters. Plasma vitellogenin concentrations in males increased in a dose-dependent manner with effluent concentration; however, male fertility was not impacted. Although in vitro analyses, analytical chemistry, and biomarker responses confirmed the effluent was estrogenic, estrogen receptor agonists were unlikely the primary driver of impaired reproduction. The results provide insights into the significance of pathway-based effects with regard to predicting adverse reproductive outcomes.

Concentrations and cycling of DMS, DMSP, and DMSO in coastal and offshore waters of the Subarctic Pacific during summer, 2010-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asher, Elizabeth; Dacey, John W.; Ianson, Debby; Peña, Angelica; Tortell, Philippe D.

2017-04-01

Concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS), measured in the Subarctic Pacific during summer 2010 and 2011, ranged from ˜1 to 40 nM, while dissolved dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) concentrations (range 13-23 nM) exceeded those of dissolved dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP) (range 1.3-8.8 nM). Particulate DMSP dominated the reduced sulfur pool, reaching maximum concentrations of 100 nM. Coastal and off shore waters exhibited similar overall DMS concentration ranges, but sea-air DMS fluxes were lower in the oceanic waters due to lower wind speeds. Surface DMS concentrations showed statistically significant correlations with various hydrographic variables including the upwelling intensity (r2 = 0.52, p < 0.001) and the Chlorophyll a/mixed layer depth ratio (r2 = 0.52, p < 0.001), but these relationships provided little predictive power at small scales. Stable isotope tracer experiments indicated that the DMSP cleavage pathway always exceeded the DMSO reduction pathway as a DMS source, leading to at least 85% more DMS production in each experiment. Gross DMS production rates were positively correlated with the upwelling intensity, while net rates of DMS production were significantly correlated to surface water DMS concentrations. This latter result suggests that our measurements captured dominant processes driving surface DMS accumulation across a coastal-oceanic gradient.

Understanding the drivers of the future water gap in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Immerzeel, W. W.; Wijngaard, R. R.; Biemans, H.; Lutz, A. F.

2017-12-01

The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river systems provide water resources for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors sustaining the lives of about 700 million people. The region is globally a hotspot for climate change as the headwaters of these rivers are fed by melt water from snow and glaciers, both strongly influenced by temperature change. In addition, the hydrology in the region is determined by the monsoon and its future dynamics as a results of climate change remains very uncertain. Simultaneously, the population is projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, which in combination with strong economic developments, will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. In this study we attempt to quantify the future water gap in the IGB and attribute this water gap to climate change and socio-economic growth. For the upstream mountainous parts of the basins we use the SPHY model, which is calibrated based on historical streamflow and glacier mass balance data and forced by the latest CMIP5 future climate model data for RCP4.5 and 8.5. Output of this model feeds into the downstream LPJmL model, which allows assessment of downstream climate change impacts and projected changes in water demand as a result of socio-economic developments. The LPJmL model is run for different combinations of RCPs and Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs). Our results show that for the IGB as a whole climate change will increase water availability in the coming decades, due to an overall, albeit uncertain, increase in monsoon precipitation in combination with a sustained melt water supply from the upstream parts of the basins. However, irrespective of the SSP and RCP, the water demand as a result of socio-economic growth is expected to increase extremely fast in the near future and this is likely to be the main adaptation challenge for the IGB as far as water shortages are concerned. Our results also show that regional and temporal variation in the water gap is large and that basin specific adaptation measures are required that take into account both socio-economic developments as well as climate change.

Taxol induces concentration-dependent phosphatidylserine (PS) externalization and cell cycle arrest in ASTC-a-1 cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Wen-jing; Chen, Tong-sheng

2010-02-01

Taxol (Paclitaxel) is an important natural product for the treatment of solid tumors. Different concentrations of taxol can trigger distinct effects on both the cellular microtubule network and biochemical pathways. Apoptosis induced by low concentrations (5-30 nM) of taxol was associated with mitotic arrest, alteration of microtubule dynamics and/or G2/M cell cycle arrest, whereas high concentrations of this drug (0.2-30 μM) caused significant microtubule damage, and was found recently to induce cytoplasm vacuolization in human lung adenocarcinoma (ASTC-a-1) cells. In present study, cell counting kit (CCK-8) assay, confocal microscope, and flow cytometry analysis were used to analyze the cell death form induced by 35 nM and 70 μM of taxol respectively in human lung adenocarcinoma (ASTC-a-1) cells. After treatment of 35 nM taxol for 48 h, the OD450 value was 0.80, and 35 nM taxol was found to induce dominantly cell death in apoptotic pathway such as phosphatidylserine (PS) externalization, G2/M phase arrest after treatment for 24 h, and nuclear fragmentation after treatment for 48 h. After 70 μM taxol treated the cell for 24 h, the OD450 value was 1.01, and 70 μM taxol induced cytoplasm vacuolization programmed cell death (PCD) and G2/M phase as well as the polyploidy phase arrest in paraptotic-like cell death. These findings imply that the regulated signaling pathway of cell death induced by taxol is dependent on taxol concentration in ASTC-a-1 cells.

Root chemistry and soil fauna, but not soil abiotic conditions explain the effects of plant diversity on root decomposition.

PubMed

Chen, Hongmei; Oram, Natalie J; Barry, Kathryn E; Mommer, Liesje; van Ruijven, Jasper; de Kroon, Hans; Ebeling, Anne; Eisenhauer, Nico; Fischer, Christine; Gleixner, Gerd; Gessler, Arthur; González Macé, Odette; Hacker, Nina; Hildebrandt, Anke; Lange, Markus; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Scheu, Stefan; Oelmann, Yvonne; Wagg, Cameron; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Wirth, Christian; Weigelt, Alexandra

2017-11-01

Plant diversity influences many ecosystem functions including root decomposition. However, due to the presence of multiple pathways via which plant diversity may affect root decomposition, our mechanistic understanding of their relationships is limited. In a grassland biodiversity experiment, we simultaneously assessed the effects of three pathways-root litter quality, soil biota, and soil abiotic conditions-on the relationships between plant diversity (in terms of species richness and the presence/absence of grasses and legumes) and root decomposition using structural equation modeling. Our final structural equation model explained 70% of the variation in root mass loss. However, different measures of plant diversity included in our model operated via different pathways to alter root mass loss. Plant species richness had a negative effect on root mass loss. This was partially due to increased Oribatida abundance, but was weakened by enhanced root potassium (K) concentration in more diverse mixtures. Equally, grass presence negatively affected root mass loss. This effect of grasses was mostly mediated via increased root lignin concentration and supported via increased Oribatida abundance and decreased root K concentration. In contrast, legume presence showed a net positive effect on root mass loss via decreased root lignin concentration and increased root magnesium concentration, both of which led to enhanced root mass loss. Overall, the different measures of plant diversity had contrasting effects on root decomposition. Furthermore, we found that root chemistry and soil biota but not root morphology or soil abiotic conditions mediated these effects of plant diversity on root decomposition.

Transcriptional responses in the rat nasal epithelium following subchronic inhalation of naphthalene vapor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clewell, H.J., E-mail: hclewell@thehamner.org; Efremenko, A.; Campbell, J.L.

Male and female Fischer 344 rats were exposed to naphthalene vapors at 0 (controls), 0.1, 1, 10, and 30 ppm for 6 h/d, 5 d/wk, over a 90-day period. Following exposure, the respiratory epithelium and olfactory epithelium from the nasal cavity were dissected separately, RNA was isolated, and gene expression microarray analysis was conducted. Only a few significant gene expression changes were observed in the olfactory or respiratory epithelium of either gender at the lowest concentration (0.1 ppm). At the 1.0 ppm concentration there was limited evidence of an oxidative stress response in the respiratory epithelium, but not in themore » olfactory epithelium. In contrast, a large number of significantly enriched cellular pathway responses were observed in both tissues at the two highest concentrations (10 and 30 ppm, which correspond to tumorigenic concentrations in the NTP bioassay). The nature of these responses supports a mode of action involving oxidative stress, inflammation and proliferation. These results are consistent with a dose-dependent transition in the mode of action for naphthalene toxicity/carcinogenicity between 1.0 and 10 ppm in the rat. In the female olfactory epithelium (the gender/site with the highest incidences of neuroblastomas in the NTP bioassay), the lowest concentration at which any signaling pathway was significantly affected, as characterized by the median pathway benchmark dose (BMD) or its 95% lower bound (BMDL) was 6.0 or 3.7 ppm, respectively, while the lowest female olfactory BMD values for pathways related to glutathione homeostasis, inflammation, and proliferation were 16.1, 11.1, and 8.4 ppm, respectively. In the male respiratory epithelium (the gender/site with the highest incidences of adenomas in the NTP bioassay), the lowest pathway BMD and BMDL were 0.4 and 0.3 ppm, respectively, and the lowest male respiratory BMD values for pathways related to glutathione homeostasis, inflammation, and proliferation were 0.5, 0.7, and 0.9 ppm, respectively. Using a published physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to estimate target tissue dose relevant to the proposed mode of action (total naphthalene metabolism per gram nasal tissue), the lowest transcriptional BMDLs from this analysis equate to human continuous naphthalene exposure at approximately 0.3 ppm. It is unlikely that significant effects of naphthalene or its metabolites will occur at exposures below this concentration. - Highlights: • We investigated mode of action for carcinogenicity of inhaled naphthalene in rats. • Gene expression changes were measured in rat nasal tissues after 90 day exposures. • Support a non-linear mode of action (oxidative stress, inflammation, and proliferation) • Suggest a dose-dependent transition in the mode of action between 1.0 and 10 ppm • Transcriptional benchmark doses could inform point of departure for risk assessment.« less

The role of MAPK signal transduction pathways in the response to oxidative stress in the fungal pathogen Candida albicans: implications in virulence.

PubMed

de Dios, Carmen Herrero; Román, Elvira; Monge, Rebeca Alonso; Pla, Jesús

2010-12-01

In recent years, Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase (MAPK) pathways have emerged as major regulators of cellular physiology. In the fungal pathogen Candida albicans, three different MAPK pathways have been characterized in the last years. The HOG pathway is mainly a stress response pathway that is activated in response to osmotic and oxidative stress and also participates regulating other pathways. The SVG pathway (or mediated by the Cek1 MAPK) is involved in cell wall formation under vegetative and filamentous growth, while the Mkc1-mediated pathway is involved in cell wall integrity. Oxidative stress is one of the types of stress that every fungal cell has to face during colonization of the host, where the cell encounters both hypoxia niches (i.e. gut) and high concentrations of reactive oxygen species (upon challenge with immune cells). Two pathways have been shown to be activated in response to oxidative stress: the HOG pathway and the MKC1-mediated pathway while the third, the Cek1 pathway is deactivated. The timing, kinetics, stimuli and functional responses generated upon oxidative stress differ among them; however, they have essential functional consequences that severely influence pathogenesis. MAPK pathways are, therefore, valuable targets to be explored in antifungal research.

Downregulation of cell survival signalling pathways and increased cell damage in hydrogen peroxide-treated human renal proximal tubular cells by alpha-erythropoietin.

PubMed

Andreucci, M; Fuiano, G; Presta, P; Lucisano, G; Leone, F; Fuiano, L; Bisesti, V; Esposito, P; Russo, D; Memoli, B; Faga, T; Michael, A

2009-08-01

Erythropoietin has been shown to have a protective effect in certain models of ischaemia-reperfusion, and in some cases the protection has been correlated with activation of signalling pathways known to play a role in cell survival and proliferation. We have studied whether erythropoietin would overcome direct toxic effects of hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) treatment to human renal proximal tubular (HK-2) cells. HK-2 cells were incubated with H(2)O(2) (2 mm) for 2 h with or without erythropoietin at concentrations of 100 and 400 U/ml, and cell viability/proliferation was assessed by chemical reduction of MTT. Changes in phosphorylation state of the kinases Akt, glycogen synthase kinase-3beta (GSK-3beta), mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) and extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1/ERK2) were also analysed. Cells incubated with H(2)O(2) alone showed a significant decrease in viability, which did not significantly change by addition of erythropoietin at concentration of 100 U/ml, but was further reduced when concentration of erythropoietin was increased to 400 U/ml. Phosphorylation state of the kinases Akt, GSK-3beta, mTOR and ERK1/ERK2 of H(2)O(2)-treated HK-2 cells was slightly altered in the presence of erythropoietin at concentration of 100 U/ml, but was significantly less in the presence of erythropoietin at a concentration of 400 U/ml. Phosphorylation of forkhead transcription factor FKHRL1 was diminished in cells incubated with H(2)O(2) and erythropoietin at a concentration of 400 U/ml. Erythropoietin, at high concentrations, may significantly increase cellular damage in HK-2 cells subjected to oxidative stress, which may be due in part to decrease in activation of important signalling pathways involved in cell survival and/or cell proliferation.

Lithium ions attenuate serum-deprivation-induced apoptosis in PC12 cells through regulation of the Akt/FoxO1 signaling pathways.

PubMed

Zeng, Zhiwen; Wang, Haitao; Shang, Fu; Zhou, Lihua; Little, Peter J; Quirion, Remi; Zheng, Wenhua

2016-03-01

Lithium is currently used in the treatment of mental illness. We have previously reported that lithium stimulated the protein kinase B/Forkhead box O1 (Akt/FoxO1) pathway in rats. However, little information is available regarding its neuroprotective role of this pathway and underlying mechanisms. PC12 cells treated with serum deprivation were used as a toxicity model to study the protective effect of lithium and its underlying mechanisms. Cell viability was determined by methyl thiazolyl tetrazolium assay and Hoechst staining. FoxO1 subcellular location and its overexpression were used to study the underlying mechanisms. Various pathway inhibitors were used to investigate the possible pathways, while the phosphorylation of Akt and FoxO1 was analyzed by Western blot. Lithium pretreatment dose-dependently reduced PC12 cell apoptosis induced by serum starvation. The protective effect of lithium was abolished by LY294002, a PI3K-specific inhibitor, and Akt inhibitor Akt inhibitor VIII, whereas mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MEK kinase) inhibitor U0126 had no effect. Lithium induced the phosphorylation of Akt and FoxO1 in a time- and concentration-dependent manner. Lithium-induced phosphorylation of Akt and FoxO1 is mediated by the PI3K/Akt pathway. Serum deprivation caused nuclear translocation of FoxO1 while application of lithium reversed the effect of serum deprivation. Moreover, overexpression of FoxO1 enhanced cell apoptosis induced by serum withdrawal. Finally, lithium was found to reduce the exogenous and endogenous FoxO1 protein levels in PC12 cells in a concentration-dependent fashion. The protective effect of lithium against serum starvation cell death is mediated by the PI3K/Akt/FoxO1 pathway.

Interactions of C4 subtype metabolic activities and transport in maize are revealed through the characterization of DCT2 mutants

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

C4 photosynthesis is an elaborate set of metabolic pathways that utilize specialized anatomical and biochemical adaptations to concentrate CO2 around RuBisCO. The activities of the C4 pathways are coordinated between two specialized leaf cell types, mesophyll (M) and bundle sheath (BS), and rely hea...

Potential Impacts of two SO2 oxidation pathways on regional sulfate concentrations: acqueous-hase oxidation by NO2 and gas-phase oxidation by Stabilized Criegee Intermediates

EPA Science Inventory

We examine the potential impacts of two additional sulfate production pathways using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. First we evaluate the impact of the aqueous-phase oxidation of S(IV) by nitrogen dioxide using two published rate constants, differing by 1-2...

Sugar-sweetened beverage intake associations with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations are not modified by selected genetic variants in a ChREBP-FGF21 pathway: a meta-analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Aims & Hypothesis: Sugar sweetened beverages are a major dietary contributor to fructose intake. A molecular pathway involving the carbohydrate responsive-element binding protein (ChREBP) and the metabolic hormone fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) may influence sugar metabolism and thereby contrib...

Sugar-sweetened beverage intake associations with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations are not modified by selected genetic variants in a ChREBP-FGF21 pathway: A meta-analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major dietary contributor to fructose intake. A molecular pathway involving the carbohydrate responsive element-binding protein (ChREBP) and the metabolic hormone fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) may influence sugar metabolism and, thereby, contribute to fru...

Neurotrophin-3 Regulates Synapse Development by Modulating TrkC-PTPσ Synaptic Adhesion and Intracellular Signaling Pathways.

PubMed

Han, Kyung Ah; Woo, Doyeon; Kim, Seungjoon; Choii, Gayoung; Jeon, Sangmin; Won, Seoung Youn; Kim, Ho Min; Heo, Won Do; Um, Ji Won; Ko, Jaewon

2016-04-27

Neurotrophin-3 (NT-3) is a secreted neurotrophic factor that binds neurotrophin receptor tyrosine kinase C (TrkC), which in turn binds to presynaptic protein tyrosine phosphatase σ (PTPσ) to govern excitatory synapse development. However, whether and how NT-3 cooperates with the TrkC-PTPσ synaptic adhesion pathway and TrkC-mediated intracellular signaling pathways in rat cultured neurons has remained unclear. Here, we report that NT-3 enhances TrkC binding affinity for PTPσ. Strikingly, NT-3 treatment bidirectionally regulates the synaptogenic activity of TrkC: at concentrations of 10-25 ng/ml, NT-3 further enhanced the increase in synapse density induced by TrkC overexpression, whereas at higher concentrations, NT-3 abrogated TrkC-induced increases in synapse density. Semiquantitative immunoblotting and optogenetics-based imaging showed that 25 ng/ml NT-3 or light stimulation at a power that produced a comparable level of NT-3 (6.25 μW) activated only extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) and Akt, whereas 100 ng/ml NT-3 (light intensity, 25 μW) further triggered the activation of phospholipase C-γ1 and CREB independently of PTPσ. Notably, disruption of TrkC intracellular signaling pathways, extracellular ligand binding, or kinase activity by point mutations compromised TrkC-induced increases in synapse density. Furthermore, only sparse, but not global, TrkC knock-down in cultured rat neurons significantly decreased synapse density, suggesting that intercellular differences in TrkC expression level are critical for its synapse-promoting action. Together, our data demonstrate that NT-3 is a key factor in excitatory synapse development that may direct higher-order assembly of the TrkC/PTPσ complex and activate distinct intracellular signaling cascades in a concentration-dependent manner to promote competition-based synapse development processes. In this study, we present several lines of experimental evidences to support the conclusion that neurotrophin-3 (NT-3) modulates the synaptic adhesion pathway involving neurotrophin receptor tyrosine kinase C (TrkC) and presynaptic protein tyrosine phosphatase σ (PTPσ) in a bidirectional manner at excitatory synapses. NT-3 acts in concentration-independent manner to facilitate TrkC-mediated presynaptic differentiation, whereas it acts in a concentration-dependent manner to exert differential effects on TrkC-mediated organization of postsynaptic development. We further investigated TrkC extracellular ligand binding, intracellular signaling pathways, and kinase activity in NT-3-induced synapse development. Last, we found that interneuronal differences in TrkC levels regulate the synapse number. Overall, these results suggest that NT-3 functions as a positive modulator of synaptogenesis involving TrkC and PTPσ. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/364817-16$15.00/0.

The evaluation of stack metal emissions from hazardous waste incinerators: assessing human exposure through noninhalation pathways.

PubMed Central

Sedman, R M; Polisini, J M; Esparza, J R

1994-01-01

Potential public health effects associated with exposure to metal emissions from hazardous waste incinerators through noninhalation pathways were evaluated. Instead of relying on modeling the movement of toxicants through various environmental media, an approach based on estimating changes from baseline levels of exposure was employed. Changes in soil and water As, Cd, Hg, Pb, Cr, and Be concentrations that result from incinerator emissions were first determined. Estimates of changes in human exposure due to direct contact with shallow soil or the ingestion of surface water were then ascertained. Projected changes in dietary intakes of metals due to incinerator emissions were estimated based on changes from baseline dietary intakes that are monitored in U.S. Food and Drug Administration total diet studies. Changes from baseline intake were deemed to be proportional to the projected changes in soil or surface water metal concentrations. Human exposure to metals emitted from nine hazardous waste incinerators were then evaluated. Metal emissions from certain facilities resulted in tangible human exposure through noninhalation pathways. However, the analysis indicated that the deposition of metals from ambient air would result in substantially greater human exposure through noninhalation pathways than the emissions from most of the facilities. PMID:7925180

Formononetin induces the mitochondrial apoptosis pathway in prostate cancer cells via downregulation of the IGF-1/IGF-1R signaling pathway.

PubMed

Huang, Wen-Jun; Bi, Ling-Yun; Li, Zhen-Zhao; Zhang, Xing; Ye, Yu

2013-12-20

Abstract Context: Formononetin, an isoflavone, can inhibit the proliferation of cancer cells, including those of the prostate. However, its antitumor mechanism remains unclear. Aim: To investigate whether the insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1)/insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF-1 R) signaling pathway mediates the formononetin antitumor effect on prostate cancer cells. Materials and methods: The viability of PC-3 cells was measured by MTT assay 48 h after formononetin treatment (25, 50 and 100 μM). Formononetin-induced cell apoptosis was measured by Hoechst 33258 staining and flow cytometry. Expression of Bax mRNA was detected by real-time PCR, and the expression levels of Bax and IGF-1 R proteins were detected by western blots. Results: At concentrations >12.5 μM, formononetin significantly inhibited the proliferation of human prostate cancer cells. Formononetin increased Bax mRNA and protein expression levels and decreased the expression levels of pIGF-1 R protein in a dose-dependent manner. Conclusion: High concentrations of formononetin-induced apoptosis in androgen-independent prostate cancer cells through inhibition of the IGF-1/IGF-1 R pathway.

Step-wise refolding of recombinant proteins.

PubMed

Tsumoto, Kouhei; Arakawa, Tsutomu; Chen, Linda

2010-04-01

Protein refolding is still on trial-and-error basis. Here we describe step-wise dialysis refolding, in which denaturant concentration is altered in step-wise fashion. This technology controls the folding pathway by adjusting the concentrations of the denaturant and other solvent additives to induce sequential folding or disulfide formation.

Phenylbutyrate reduces plasma leucine concentrations without affecting the flux of leucine

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phenylbutyrate (PB) has been used as an alternative pathway to excrete nitrogen in urea cycle disorder patients for the last 20 years. PB, after oxidation to phenylacetate, is conjugated with glutamine and excreted in the urine. A reduction in the plasma concentration of branched amino acids (BCAA) ...

40 CFR 80.1352 - What are the pre-compliance reporting requirements for the gasoline benzene program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) Benzene concentration. An estimate of the average gasoline benzene concentration corresponding to the time... engineering and permitting, Procurement and Construction, and Commissioning and startup. (7) Basic information regarding the selected technology pathway for compliance (e.g., precursor re-routing or other technologies...

SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF TOTAL NITRATE CONCENTRATIONS USING DYNAMIC STATISTICAL MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospheric concentrations of total nitrate (TNO₃), defined here as gas-phase nitric acid plus particle-phase nitrate, are difficult to simulate in numerical air quality models due to the presence of a variety of formation pathways and loss mechanisms, some of which ar...

Pathways of inhalation exposure to manganese in children ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Manganese (Mn) is both essential element and neurotoxicant. Exposure to Mn can occur from various sources and routes. Structural equation modeling was used to examine routes of exposure to Mn among children residing near a ferromanganese refinery in Marietta, Ohio. An inhalation pathway model to ambient air Mn was hypothesized. Data for model evaluation were obtained from participants in the Communities Actively Researching Exposure Study (CARES). These data were collected in 2009 and included levels of Mn in residential soil and dust, levels of Mn in children's hair, information on the amount of time the child spent outside, heat and air conditioning in the home and level of parent education. Hair Mn concentration was the primary endogenous variable used to assess the theoretical inhalation exposure pathways. The model indicated that household dust Mn was a significant contributor to child hair Mn (0.37). Annual ambient air Mn concentration (0.26), time children spent outside (0.24) and soil Mn (0.24) significantly contributed to the amount of Mn in household dust. These results provide a potential framework for understanding the inhalation exposure pathway for children exposed to ambient air Mn who live in proximity to an industrial emission source. The purpose of this study was to use a structural equations modeling approach combined with exposure estimates derived from air-dispersion modeling to assess potential inhalation exposure pathways for children to a

Edaravone protects rats and human pulmonary alveolar epithelial cells against hyperoxia injury: heme oxygenase-1 and PI3K/Akt pathway may be involved.

PubMed

Cao, Huifang; Feng, Ying; Ning, Yunye; Zhang, Zinan; Li, Weihao; Li, Qiang

2015-01-01

Hyperoxic acute lung injury (HALI) is a clinical syndrome as a result of prolonged supplement of high concentrations of oxygen. As yet, no specific treatment is available for HALI. The present study aims to investigate the effects of edaravone on hyperoxia-induced oxidative injury and the underlying mechanism. We treated rats and human pulmonary alveolar epithelial cells with hyperoxia and different concentration of edaravone, then examined the effects of edaravone on cell viability, cell injury and two oxidative products. The roles of heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) and PI3K/Akt pathway were explored using Western blot and corresponding inhibitors. The results showed that edaravone reduced lung biochemical alterations induced by hyperoxia and mortality of rats, dose-dependently alleviated cell mortality, cell injury, and peroxidation of cellular lipid and DNA oxidative damage. It upregulated cellular HO-1 expression and activity, which was reversed by PI3K/Akt pathway inhibition. The administration of zinc protoporphyrin-IX, a HO-1 inhibitor, and LY249002, a PI3K/Akt pathway inhibitor, abolished the protective effects of edaravone in cells. This study indicates that edaravone protects rats and human pulmonary alveolar epithelial cells against hyperoxia-induced injury and the antioxidant effect may be related to upregulation of HO-1, which is regulated by PI3K/Akt pathway.

In vivo nuclear magnetic resonance studies of hepatic methoxyflurane metabolism. II. A reevaluation of hepatic metabolic pathways.

PubMed

Selinsky, B S; Perlman, M E; London, R E

1988-05-01

Methoxyflurane (2,2-dichloro-1,1-difluoro-ethyl methyl ether) is believed to be metabolized via two convergent metabolic pathways. The relative flux through these two metabolic pathways has been investigated using a combination of in vivo surface coil NMR techniques and in vitro analyses of urinary metabolites. Analysis of the measured concentrations of inorganic fluoride, oxalate, and methoxydifluoroacetate in the urine of methoxyflurane-treated rats for 4 days after anesthesia indicates that the anesthetic is metabolized primarily via dechlorination to yield methoxydifluoroacetate. The methoxydifluoroacetate is largely excreted without further metabolism, although a small percentage of this metabolite is broken down to yield fluoride and oxalate, as determined by urine analysis of rats dosed with synthetic methoxydifluoroacetate. At early times after methoxyflurane exposure, the relative concentrations of methoxyflurane metabolites indicate that a significant fraction of the metabolic flux occurs via a different pathway, presumably demethylation, to yield dichloroacetate as an intermediate. Direct analysis of dichloroacetate in the urine using water-suppressed proton NMR indicates that the level of this metabolite is below the detection threshold of the method. Measurements made on the urine of rats dosed directly with dichloroacetate indicate that this compound is quickly metabolized, and dichloroacetate levels in urine are again found to be below the detection threshold. These results demonstrate the quantitative importance of the dechlorination pathway in the metabolism of methoxyflurane in rats.

Activation of AhR-mediated toxicity pathway by emerging ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Polychlorinated diphenyl sulfides (PCDPSs) are a group of environmental pollutants for which limited toxicological information is available. This study tested the hypothesis that PCDPSs could activate the mammalian aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) mediated toxicity pathways. Eighteen PCDPSs were tested in the H4IIE-luc transactivation assay, with 13/18 causing concentration-dependent AhR activation. Potencies of several congeners were similar to those of mono-ortho substituted polychlorinated biphenyls. A RNA sequencing (RNA-seq)-based transcriptomic analysis was performed on H4IIE cells treated with two PCDPS congeners, 2,2',3,3',4,5,6-hepta-CDPS, and 2,4,4',5-tetra-CDPS. Results of RNA-seq revealed a remarkable modulation on a relatively short gene list by exposure to the tested concentrations of PCDPSs, among which, Cyp1 responded with the greatest fold up-regulation. Both the identities of the modulated transcripts and the associated pathways were consistent with targets and pathways known to be modulated by other types of AhR agonists and there was little evidence for significant off-target effects within the cellular context of the H4IIE bioassay. The results suggest AhR activation as a toxicologically relevant mode of action for PCDPSs suggests the utility of AhR-related toxicity pathways for predicting potential hazards associated with PCDPS exposure in mammals and potentially other vertebrates. Polychlorinated diphenyl sulfides (PCDPSs) are a group of en

The Unfolding and Refolding Reactions of Triosephosphate Isomerase from Trypanosoma Cruzi Follow Similar Pathways. Guanidinium Hydrochloride Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vázquez-Contreras, Edgar; Pérez Hernández, Gerardo; Sánchez-Rebollar, Brenda Guadalupe; Chánez-Cárdenas, María Elena

2005-04-01

The unfolding and refolding reactions of Trypanosoma cruzi triosephosphate isomerase (TcTIM) was studied under equilibrium conditions at increasing guanidinium hydrochloride concentrations. The changes in activity intrinsic fluorescence and far-ultraviolet circular dichroism as a function of denaturant were used as a quaternary, tertiary and secondary structural probes respectively. The change in extrinsic ANS fluorescence intensity was also investigated. The results show that the transition between the homodimeric native enzyme to the unfolded monomers (unfolding), and its inverse reaction (refolding) are described by similar pathways and two equilibrium intermediates were detected in both reactions. The mild denaturant concentrations intermediate is active and contains significant amount of secondary and tertiary structures. The medium denaturant concentrations intermediate is inactive and able to bind the fluorescent dye. This intermediates are maybe related with those observed in the denaturation pattern of TIMs from other species; the results are discussed in this context.

Energetic rationale for an unexpected and abrupt reversal of guanidinium chloride-induced unfolding of peptide deformylase.

PubMed

Berg, Alexander K; Manokaran, Sumathra; Eiler, Daniel; Kooren, Joel; Mallik, Sanku; Srivastava, D K

2008-01-01

Peptide deformylase (PDF) catalyzes the removal of formyl group from the N-terminal methionine residues of nascent proteins in prokaryotes, and this enzyme is a high priority target for antibiotic design. In pursuit of delineating the structural-functional features of Escherichia coli PDF (EcPDF), we investigated the mechanistic pathway for the guanidinium chloride (GdmCl)-induced unfolding of the enzyme by monitoring the secondary structural changes via CD spectroscopy. The experimental data revealed that EcPDF is a highly stable enzyme, and it undergoes slow denaturation in the presence of varying concentrations of GdmCl. The most interesting aspect of these studies has been the abrupt reversal of the unfolding pathway at low to moderate concentrations of the denaturant, but not at high concentration. An energetic rationale for such an unprecedented feature in protein chemistry is offered.

Multiple pathways from three types of sugar receptor sites to metabotropic transduction pathways of the blowfly: study by the whole cell-clamp experiments.

PubMed

Kan, Hideko; Kataoka-Shirasugi, Naoko; Amakawa, Taisaku

2011-09-01

Multiple pathways from three types of multiple receptor sites to three types of metabotropic signal transduction pathways were investigated in the whole cell-clamp experiments using isolated labellar sugar receptor neurons (cells) of the adult blowfly, Phormia regina. First, the concentration-response curves of three types of sweet taste components specialized to multiple receptor sites were obtained: sucrose for the pyranose sites (P-sites), fructose for the furanose sites (F-sites), and l-valine for the alkyl sites (R-sites). Next, the effects of inhibitors such as 2', 5'-dideoxyadenosine on adenylyl cyclase in the cAMP pathway, LY 83583 on guanylyl cyclase in the cGMP pathway, and U-73122 on phospholipase C in the IP₃ pathway were examined. The results showed that all of the inhibitors affected each specific target in the second-messenger transduction pathways. The obtained results verified that the P-site corresponded to the cAMP, the F-site to the cGMP, and the R-site to the IP₃ transduction pathway, and that these three signal pathways did not have crossing points. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Finasteride Concentrations and Prostate Cancer Risk: Results from the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial

PubMed Central

Till, Cathee; Goodman, Phyllis J.; Chen, Xiaohong; Leach, Robin J.; Johnson-Pais, Teresa L.; Hsing, Ann W.; Hoque, Ashraful; Tangen, Catherine M.; Chu, Lisa; Parnes, Howard L.; Schenk, Jeannette M.; Reichardt, Juergen K. V.; Thompson, Ian M.; Figg, William D.

2015-01-01

Objective In the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT), finasteride reduced the risk of prostate cancer by 25%, even though high-grade prostate cancer was more common in the finasteride group. However, it remains to be determined whether finasteride concentrations may affect prostate cancer risk. In this study, we examined the association between serum finasteride concentrations and the risk of prostate cancer in the treatment arm of the PCPT and determined factors involved in modifying drug concentrations. Methods Data for this nested case-control study are from the PCPT. Cases were drawn from men with biopsy-proven prostate cancer and matched controls. Finasteride concentrations were measured using a liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry validated assay. The association of serum finasteride concentrations with prostate cancer risk was determined by logistic regression. We also examine whether polymorphisms in the enzyme target and metabolism genes of finasteride are related to drug concentrations using linear regression. Results and Conclusions Among men with detectable finasteride concentrations, there was no association between finasteride concentrations and prostate cancer risk, low-grade or high-grade, when finasteride concentration was analyzed as a continuous variable or categorized by cutoff points. Since there was no concentration-dependent effect on prostate cancer, any exposure to finasteride intake may reduce prostate cancer risk. Of the twenty-seven SNPs assessed in the enzyme target and metabolism pathway, five SNPs in two genes, CYP3A4 (rs2242480; rs4646437; rs4986910), and CYP3A5 (rs15524; rs776746) were significantly associated with modifying finasteride concentrations. These results suggest that finasteride exposure may reduce prostate cancer risk and finasteride concentrations are affected by genetic variations in genes responsible for altering its metabolism pathway. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00288106 PMID:25955319

Developing confidence in adverse outcome pathway-based ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

An adverse outcome pathway (AOP) description linking inhibition of aromatase (cytochrome P450 [cyp] 19) to reproductive dysfunction was reviewed for scientific and technical quality and endorsed by the OECD. An intended application of the AOP framework is to support the use of mechanistic or pathway-based data to infer or predict chemical hazards and apical adverse outcomes. As part of this work, ToxCast high throughput screening data were used to identify a chemicals’ ability to inhibit aromatase activity in vitro. Twenty-four hour in vivo exposures, focused on effects on production and circulating concentrations of 17β-estradiol (E2), key events in the AOP, were conducted to verify in vivo activity. Based on these results, imazalil was selected as a case study chemical to test an AOP-based hazard prediction. A computational model of the fish hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal-liver axis and a statistically-based model of oocyte growth dynamics were used to predict impacts of different concentrations of imazalil on multiple key events along the AOP, assuming continuous exposure for 21 d. Results of the model simulations were used to select test concentrations and design a fathead minnow reproduction study in which fish were exposed to 20, 60, or 200 µg imazalil/L for durations of 2.5, 10, or 21d. Within 60 h of exposure, female fathead minnows showed significant reductions in ex vivo production of E2, circulating E2 concentrations, and significant increases in

Clinical and pathophysiological evidence supporting the safety of extremely low LDL levels-The zero-LDL hypothesis.

PubMed

Masana, Luis; Girona, Josefa; Ibarretxe, Daiana; Rodríguez-Calvo, Ricardo; Rosales, Roser; Vallvé, Joan-Carles; Rodríguez-Borjabad, Cèlia; Guardiola, Montserrat; Rodríguez, Marina; Guaita-Esteruelas, Sandra; Oliva, Iris; Martínez-Micaelo, Neus; Heras, Mercedes; Ferré, Raimon; Ribalta, Josep; Plana, Núria

While the impact of very low concentrations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on cardiovascular prevention is very reassuring, it is intriguing to know what effect these extremely low LDL-C concentrations have on lipid homoeostasis. The evidence supporting the safety of extremely low LDL levels comes from genetic studies and clinical drug trials. Individuals with lifelong low LDL levels due to mutations in genes associated with increased LDL-LDL receptor (LDLR) activity reveal no safety issues. Patients achieving extremely low LDL levels in the IMPROVE-IT and FOURIER, and the PROFICIO and ODYSSEY programs seem not to have an increased prevalence of adverse effects. The main concern regarding extremely low LDL-C plasma concentrations is the adequacy of the supply of cholesterol, and other molecules, to peripheral tissues. However, LDL proteomic and kinetic studies reaffirm that LDL is the final product of endogenous lipoprotein metabolism. Four of 5 LDL particles are cleared through the LDL-LDLR pathway in the liver. Given that mammalian cells have no enzymatic systems to degrade cholesterol, the LDL-LDLR pathway is the main mechanism for removal of cholesterol from the body. Our focus, therefore, is to review, from a physiological perspective, why such extremely low LDL-C concentrations do not appear to be detrimental. We suggest that extremely low LDL-C levels due to increased LDLR activity may be a surrogate of adequate LDL-LDLR pathway function. Copyright © 2018 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Passive and iontophoretic transport through the skin polar pathway.

PubMed

Li, S K; Peck, K D

2013-01-01

The purpose of the present article is to briefly recount the contributions of Prof. William I. Higuchi to the area of skin transport. These contributions include developing fundamental knowledge of the barrier properties of the stratum corneum, mechanisms of skin transport, concentration gradient across skin in topical drug applications that target the viable epidermal layer, and permeation enhancement by chemical and electrical means. The complex and changeable nature of the skin barrier makes it difficult to assess and characterize the critical parameters that influence skin permeation. The systematic and mechanistic approaches taken by Dr. Higuchi in studying these parameters provided fundamental knowledge in this area and had a measured and lasting influence upon this field of study. This article specifically reviews the validation and characterization of the polar permeation pathway, the mechanistic model of skin transport, the influence of the dermis on the target skin concentration concept, and iontophoretic transport across the polar pathway of skin including the effects of electroosmosis and electropermeabilization. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.