Nuclear structure and weak rates of heavy waiting point nuclei under rp-process conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabi, Jameel-Un; Böyükata, Mahmut

2017-01-01

The structure and the weak interaction mediated rates of the heavy waiting point (WP) nuclei 80Zr, 84Mo, 88Ru, 92Pd and 96Cd along N = Z line were studied within the interacting boson model-1 (IBM-1) and the proton-neutron quasi-particle random phase approximation (pn-QRPA). The energy levels of the N = Z WP nuclei were calculated by fitting the essential parameters of IBM-1 Hamiltonian and their geometric shapes were predicted by plotting potential energy surfaces (PESs). Half-lives, continuum electron capture rates, positron decay rates, electron capture cross sections of WP nuclei, energy rates of β-delayed protons and their emission probabilities were later calculated using the pn-QRPA. The calculated Gamow-Teller strength distributions were compared with previous calculation. We present positron decay and continuum electron capture rates on these WP nuclei under rp-process conditions using the same model. For the rp-process conditions, the calculated total weak rates are twice the Skyrme HF+BCS+QRPA rates for 80Zr. For remaining nuclei the two calculations compare well. The electron capture rates are significant and compete well with the corresponding positron decay rates under rp-process conditions. The finding of the present study supports that electron capture rates form an integral part of the weak rates under rp-process conditions and has an important role for the nuclear model calculations.

On the use of secondary capture-recapture samples to estimate temporary emigration and breeding proportions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.; North, P.M.; Nichols, J.D.

1995-01-01

The use of the Cormack- Jolly-Seber model under a standard sampling scheme of one sample per time period, when the Jolly-Seber assumption that all emigration is permanent does not hold, leads to the confounding of temporary emigration probabilities with capture probabilities. This biases the estimates of capture probability when temporary emigration is a completely random process, and both capture and survival probabilities when there is a temporary trap response in temporary emigration, or it is Markovian. The use of secondary capture samples over a shorter interval within each period, during which the population is assumed to be closed (Pollock's robust design), provides a second source of information on capture probabilities. This solves the confounding problem, and thus temporary emigration probabilities can be estimated. This process can be accomplished in an ad hoc fashion for completely random temporary emigration and to some extent in the temporary trap response case, but modelling the complete sampling process provides more flexibility and permits direct estimation of variances. For the case of Markovian temporary emigration, a full likelihood is required.

Estimating the population size and colony boundary of subterranean termites by using the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability.

PubMed

Su, Nan-Yao; Lee, Sang-Hee

2008-04-01

Marked termites were released in a linear-connected foraging arena, and the spatial heterogeneity of their capture probabilities was averaged for both directions at distance r from release point to obtain a symmetrical distribution, from which the density function of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) was derived. We hypothesized that as marked termites move into the population and given sufficient time, the directionally averaged capture probability may reach an equilibrium P(e) over the distance r and thus satisfy the equal mixing assumption of the mark-recapture protocol. The equilibrium capture probability P(e) was used to estimate the population size N. The hypothesis was tested in a 50-m extended foraging arena to simulate the distance factor of field colonies of subterranean termites. Over the 42-d test period, the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) exhibited four phases: exponential decline phase, linear decline phase, equilibrium phase, and postequilibrium phase. The equilibrium capture probability P(e), derived as the intercept of the linear regression during the equilibrium phase, correctly projected N estimates that were not significantly different from the known number of workers in the arena. Because the area beneath the probability density function is a constant (50% in this study), preequilibrium regression parameters and P(e) were used to estimate the population boundary distance 1, which is the distance between the release point and the boundary beyond which the population is absent.

An evaluation of the efficiency of minnow traps for estimating the abundance of minnows in desert spring systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, James T.; Scheerer, Paul D.; Clements, Shaun

2015-01-01

Desert springs are sensitive aquatic ecosystems that pose unique challenges to natural resource managers and researchers. Among the most important of these is the need to accurately quantify population parameters for resident fish, particularly when the species are of special conservation concern. We evaluated the efficiency of baited minnow traps for estimating the abundance of two at-risk species, Foskett Speckled Dace Rhinichthys osculus ssp. and Borax Lake Chub Gila boraxobius, in desert spring systems in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated alternative sample designs using simulation and found that capture–recapture designs with four capture occasions would maximize the accuracy of estimates and minimize fish handling. We implemented the design and estimated capture and recapture probabilities using the Huggins closed-capture estimator. Trap capture probabilities averaged 23% and 26% for Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub, respectively, but differed substantially among sample locations, through time, and nonlinearly with fish body size. Recapture probabilities for Foskett Speckled Dace were, on average, 1.6 times greater than (first) capture probabilities, suggesting “trap-happy” behavior. Comparison of population estimates from the Huggins model with the commonly used Lincoln–Petersen estimator indicated that the latter underestimated Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub population size by 48% and by 20%, respectively. These biases were due to variability in capture and recapture probabilities. Simulation of fish monitoring that included the range of capture and recapture probabilities observed indicated that variability in capture and recapture probabilities in time negatively affected the ability to detect annual decreases by up to 20% in fish population size. Failure to account for variability in capture and recapture probabilities can lead to poor quality data and study inferences. Therefore, we recommend that fishery researchers and managers employ sample designs and estimators that can account for this variability.

Temperature Insensitivity and Behavioural Reduction of the Physiological Stress Response to Longline Capture by the Gummy Shark, Mustelus antarcticus.

PubMed

Guida, Leonardo; Walker, Terence I; Reina, Richard D

2016-01-01

Many factors influence the physiological stress response to fisheries capture in elasmobranchs. However, the influence of sea surface temperatures (SST) and behaviour are unknown and crucial considering global fishing pressures. We investigated the effect of SST and behaviour on the physiological stress response to capture of the gummy shark, Mustelus antarcticus, and compared our results to a laboratory study using similar conditions to test whether stress responses of in situ capture are consistent with those from laboratory simulations. Capture time for 23 M. antarcticus ranged 32-241 min as measured by hook timers or time depth recorders (TDR) in SSTs ranging 12-20°C. TDR data from 13 M. antarcticus were analysed to quantify capture behaviour as the percentage of time spent moving during capture. Several physiological variables measured from blood samples obtained immediately upon the animals' landing indicated that although warmer SSTs increased metabolic rate, the stress response to capture was not exacerbated by capture duration. During capture movement occurred for an average of 10% of the time and since M. antarcticus can respire whilst stationary, restricted movement probably mitigated potential influences of increased SSTs and capture duration on the stress response. Previous laboratory findings were also shown to be indicative of in situ conditions and we thus advise that studies control for water temperature given the influence it has on variables (e.g. lactate) used to measure capture stress in elasmobranchs. We highlight the importance of seasonal water temperatures and capture behaviour when assessing the resilience to fisheries capture and the implementation of appropriate fisheries management strategies.

Derivation of capture probabilities for the corotation eccentric mean motion resonances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Moutamid, Maryame; Sicardy, Bruno; Renner, Stéfan

2017-08-01

We study in this paper the capture of a massless particle into an isolated, first-order corotation eccentric resonance (CER), in the framework of the planar, eccentric and restricted three-body problem near a m + 1: m mean motion commensurability (m integer). While capture into Lindblad eccentric resonances (where the perturber's orbit is circular) has been investigated years ago, capture into CER (where the perturber's orbit is elliptic) has not yet been investigated in detail. Here, we derive the generic equations of motion near a CER in the general case where both the perturber and the test particle migrate. We derive the probability of capture in that context, and we examine more closely two particular cases: (I) if only the perturber is migrating, capture is possible only if the migration is outward from the primary. Notably, the probability of capture is independent of the way the perturber migrates outward; (II) if only the test particle is migrating, then capture is possible only if the algebraic value of its migration rate is a decreasing function of orbital radius. In this case, the probability of capture is proportional to the radial gradient of migration. These results differ from the capture into Lindblad eccentric resonance (LER), where it is necessary that the orbits of the perturber and the test particle converge for capture to be possible.

Multiple capture locations for 3D ultrasound-guided robotic retrieval of moving bodies from a beating heart

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thienphrapa, Paul; Ramachandran, Bharat; Elhawary, Haytham; Taylor, Russell H.; Popovic, Aleksandra

2012-02-01

Free moving bodies in the heart pose a serious health risk as they may be released in the arteries causing blood flow disruption. These bodies may be the result of various medical conditions and trauma. The conventional approach to removing these objects involves open surgery with sternotomy, the use of cardiopulmonary bypass, and a wide resection of the heart muscle. We advocate a minimally invasive surgical approach using a flexible robotic end effector guided by 3D transesophageal echocardiography. In a phantom study, we track a moving body in a beating heart using a modified normalized cross-correlation method, with mean RMS errors of 2.3 mm. We previously found the foreign body motion to be fast and abrupt, rendering infeasible a retrieval method based on direct tracking. We proposed a strategy based on guiding a robot to the most spatially probable location of the fragment and securing it upon its reentry to said location. To improve efficacy in the context of a robotic retrieval system, we extend this approach by exploring multiple candidate capture locations. Salient locations are identified based on spatial probability, dwell time, and visit frequency; secondary locations are also examined. Aggregate results indicate that the location of highest spatial probability (50% occupancy) is distinct from the longest-dwelled location (0.84 seconds). Such metrics are vital in informing the design of a retrieval system and capture strategies, and they can be computed intraoperatively to select the best capture location based on constraints such as workspace, time, and device manipulability. Given the complex nature of fragment motion, the ability to analyze multiple capture locations is a desirable capability in an interventional system.

Prediction and Uncertainty in Human Pavlovian to Instrumental Transfer

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trick, Leanne; Hogarth, Lee; Duka, Theodora

2011-01-01

Attentional capture and behavioral control by conditioned stimuli have been dissociated in animals. The current study assessed this dissociation in humans. Participants were trained on a Pavlovian schedule in which 3 visual stimuli, A, B, and C, predicted the occurrence of an aversive noise with 90%, 50%, or 10% probability, respectively.…

Temperature Insensitivity and Behavioural Reduction of the Physiological Stress Response to Longline Capture by the Gummy Shark, Mustelus antarcticus

PubMed Central

Guida, Leonardo; Walker, Terence I.; Reina, Richard D.

2016-01-01

Many factors influence the physiological stress response to fisheries capture in elasmobranchs. However, the influence of sea surface temperatures (SST) and behaviour are unknown and crucial considering global fishing pressures. We investigated the effect of SST and behaviour on the physiological stress response to capture of the gummy shark, Mustelus antarcticus, and compared our results to a laboratory study using similar conditions to test whether stress responses of in situ capture are consistent with those from laboratory simulations. Capture time for 23 M. antarcticus ranged 32–241 min as measured by hook timers or time depth recorders (TDR) in SSTs ranging 12–20°C. TDR data from 13 M. antarcticus were analysed to quantify capture behaviour as the percentage of time spent moving during capture. Several physiological variables measured from blood samples obtained immediately upon the animals’ landing indicated that although warmer SSTs increased metabolic rate, the stress response to capture was not exacerbated by capture duration. During capture movement occurred for an average of 10% of the time and since M. antarcticus can respire whilst stationary, restricted movement probably mitigated potential influences of increased SSTs and capture duration on the stress response. Previous laboratory findings were also shown to be indicative of in situ conditions and we thus advise that studies control for water temperature given the influence it has on variables (e.g. lactate) used to measure capture stress in elasmobranchs. We highlight the importance of seasonal water temperatures and capture behaviour when assessing the resilience to fisheries capture and the implementation of appropriate fisheries management strategies. PMID:26886126

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2010-01-01

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

Falling Victim to Wasps in the Air: A Fate Driven by Prey Flight Morphology?

PubMed Central

Ballesteros, Yolanda; Polidori, Carlo; Tormos, José; Baños-Picón, Laura; Asís, Josep D.

2016-01-01

In prey-predator systems where the interacting individuals are both fliers, the flight performance of both participants heavily influences the probability of success of the predator (the prey is captured) and of the prey (the predator is avoided). While the flight morphology (an estimate of flight performance) of predatory wasps has rarely been addressed as a factor that may contribute to explain prey use, how the flight morphology of potential prey influences the output of predator-prey encounters has not been studied. Here, we hypothesized that flight morphology associated with flight ability (flight muscle mass to body mass ratio (FMR) and body mass to wing area ratio (wing loading, WL)) of Diptera affect their probability of being captured by specialized Diptera-hunting wasps (Bembix merceti and B. zonata), predicting a better manoeuvrability and acceleration capacity achieved by higher FMR and lower WL, and flight speed achieved by higher WL. In addition, wasp species with better flight morphology should be less limited by an advantageous Diptera flight morphology. Overall, the abundance of dipterans in the environment explained an important part of the observed variance in prey capture rate. However, it was not the only factor shaping prey capture. First, higher prey abundance was associated with greater capture rate for one species (B. merceti), although not for the other one. Second, the interaction observed between the environmental dipteran availability and dipteran WL for B. zonata suggests that greater dipteran WL (this probably meaning high cruising speed) decreased the probability of being captured, as long as fly abundance was high in the environment. Third, greater dipteran FMR (which likely means high manoeuvrability and acceleration capacity) helped to reduce predation by B. merceti if, again, dipterans were abundant in the environment. Wasp WL only varied with body mass but not between species, thereby hardly accounting for inter-specific differences in the wasps’ predatory patterns. However, the greater FMR of B. zonata, which implies better flight performance and greater load-lifting capacity, may explain why the capture rate in the two wasp species is affected by different factor interactions. In conclusion, although prey availability remains the primary factor shaping prey use, prey flight morphology seems to gain an additional role under conditions of abundant prey, when wasps can avoid flies with better flight ability. PMID:27046238

Modeling the effect of toe clipping on treefrog survival: Beyond the return rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waddle, J.H.; Rice, K.G.; Mazzotti, F.J.; Percival, H.F.

2008-01-01

Some studies have described a negative effect of toe clipping on return rates of marked anurans, but the return rate is limited in that it does not account for heterogeneity of capture probabilities. We used open population mark-recapture models to estimate both apparent survival (ϕ) and the recapture probability (p) of two treefrog species individually marked by clipping 2–4 toes. We used information-theoretic model selection to examine the effect of toe clipping on survival while accounting for variation in capture probability. The model selection results indicate strong support for an effect of toe clipping on survival of Green Treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and only limited support for an effect of toe clipping on capture probability. We estimate there was a mean absolute decrease in survival of 5.02% and 11.16% for Green Treefrogs with three and four toes removed, respectively, compared to individuals with just two toes removed. Results for Squirrel Treefrogs (Hyla squirella) indicate little support for an effect of toe clipping on survival but may indicate some support for a negative effect on capture probability. We believe that the return rate alone should not be used to examine survival of marked animals because constant capture probability must be assumed, and our examples demonstrate how capture probability may vary over time and among groups. Mark-recapture models provide a method for estimating the effect of toe clipping on anuran survival in situations where unique marks are applied.

Characteristics of fishing operations, environment and life history contributing to small cetacean bycatch in the northeast Atlantic.

PubMed

Brown, Susie; Reid, David; Rogan, Emer

2014-01-01

Fisheries bycatch is a key threat to cetacean species globally. Managing the impact requires an understanding of the conditions under which animals are caught and the sections of the population affected. We used observer data collected on an albacore tuna gillnet fishery in the northeast Atlantic, to assess operational and environmental factors contributing to bycatch of common and striped dolphins, using generalised linear models and model averaging. Life history demographics of the captured animals were also investigated. In both species, young males dominated the catch. The age ratio of common dolphins was significantly different from that estimated for the population in the region, based on life tables (G = 17.1, d.f. = 2, p = 0.002). Skewed age and sex ratios may reflect varying vulnerability to capture, through differences in behaviour or segregation in populations. Adult females constituted the second largest portion of the bycatch for both species, with potential consequences for population sustainability. Depth was the most important parameter influencing bycatch of both species and reflected what is known about common and striped dolphin habitat use in the region as the probability of catching common dolphins decreased, and striped dolphins increased, with increasing depth. Striped dolphin capture was similarly influenced by the extent to which operations were conducted in daylight, with the probability of capture increasing with increased operations in the pre-sunset and post-sunrise period, potentially driven by increased ability of observers to record animals during daylight operations, or by diurnal movements increasing contact with the fishery. Effort, based on net length and soak time, had little influence on the probability of capturing either species. Our results illustrate the importance of assessing the demographic of the animals captured during observer programmes and, perhaps more importantly, suggest that effort restrictions alone may not be sufficient to eradicate bycatch in areas where driftnets and small cetaceans co-occur.

Characteristics of Fishing Operations, Environment and Life History Contributing to Small Cetacean Bycatch in the Northeast Atlantic

PubMed Central

Brown, Susie; Reid, David; Rogan, Emer

2014-01-01

Fisheries bycatch is a key threat to cetacean species globally. Managing the impact requires an understanding of the conditions under which animals are caught and the sections of the population affected. We used observer data collected on an albacore tuna gillnet fishery in the northeast Atlantic, to assess operational and environmental factors contributing to bycatch of common and striped dolphins, using generalised linear models and model averaging. Life history demographics of the captured animals were also investigated. In both species, young males dominated the catch. The age ratio of common dolphins was significantly different from that estimated for the population in the region, based on life tables (G = 17.1, d.f. = 2, p = 0.002). Skewed age and sex ratios may reflect varying vulnerability to capture, through differences in behaviour or segregation in populations. Adult females constituted the second largest portion of the bycatch for both species, with potential consequences for population sustainability. Depth was the most important parameter influencing bycatch of both species and reflected what is known about common and striped dolphin habitat use in the region as the probability of catching common dolphins decreased, and striped dolphins increased, with increasing depth. Striped dolphin capture was similarly influenced by the extent to which operations were conducted in daylight, with the probability of capture increasing with increased operations in the pre-sunset and post-sunrise period, potentially driven by increased ability of observers to record animals during daylight operations, or by diurnal movements increasing contact with the fishery. Effort, based on net length and soak time, had little influence on the probability of capturing either species. Our results illustrate the importance of assessing the demographic of the animals captured during observer programmes and, perhaps more importantly, suggest that effort restrictions alone may not be sufficient to eradicate bycatch in areas where driftnets and small cetaceans co-occur. PMID:25121802

Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

PubMed

Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

2018-02-01

Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk estimation using probability machines

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Risk estimation using probability machines.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Abhijit; Szymczak, Silke; Moore, Jason H; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Malley, James D

2014-03-01

Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a "risk machine", will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from.

Rare targets are less susceptible to attention capture once detection has begun.

PubMed

Hon, Nicholas; Ng, Gavin; Chan, Gerald

2016-04-01

Rare or low probability targets are detected more slowly and/ or less accurately than higher probability counterparts. Various proposals have implicated perceptual and response-based processes in this deficit. Recent evidence, however, suggests that it is attentional in nature, with low probability targets requiring more attentional resources than high probability ones to detect. This difference in attentional requirements, in turn, suggests the possibility that low and high probability targets may have different susceptibilities to attention capture, which is also known to be resource-dependent. Supporting this hypothesis, we found that, once attentional resources have begun to be engaged by detection processes, low, but not high, probability targets have a reduced susceptibility to capture. Our findings speak to several issues. First, they indicate that the likelihood of attention capture occurring when a given task-relevant stimulus is being processed is dependent, to some extent, on how said stimulus is represented within mental task sets. Second, they provide added support for the idea that the behavioural deficit associated with low probability targets is attention-based. Finally, the current data point to reduced top-down biasing of target templates as a likely mechanism underlying the attentional locus of the deficit in question.

The use of an in situ portable flume to examine the effect of flow properties on the capture probability of juvenile Atlantic salmon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, M. L.; Roy, A. G.; Grant, J. W.

2013-12-01

For stream fish, flow properties have been shown to influence energy expenses and habitat selection. Furthermore, flow properties directly influence the velocity of drifting prey items, therefore influencing the probability of fish at catch prey. Flow properties might also have an effect on prey trajectories that can become more unpredictable with increased turbulence. In this study, we combined field and experimental approaches to examine the foraging behaviour and position choice of juvenile Atlantic salmon in various flow conditions. We used an in situ portable flume, which consists in a transparent enclosure (observation section) equipped with hinged doors upstream allowing to funnel the water inside and modify flow properties. Portable flumes have been developed and used to simulate benthic invertebrate drift and sediment transport, but have not been previously been used to examine fish behaviour. Specifically, we tested the predictions that 1) capture probability declined with turbulence, 2) the number of attacks and the proportion of time spent on the substrate decreased with turbulence and 3) parr will preferably selected focal positions with lower turbulence than random locations across the observation section. The portable flume allowed creating four flow treatments on a gradient of mean downstream velocity and turbulence. Fish were fed with brine shrimps and filmed through translucent panels using a submerged camera. Twenty-three juvenile salmon were captured and submitted to each flow treatment for 20 minutes feeding trials. Our results showed high inter-individual variability in the foraging success and time budget within each flow treatment associated to levels of velocity and turbulence. However, the average prey capture probability for the two lower velocity treatments was higher than that for the two higher velocity treatments. An inverse relationship between flow velocity and prey capture probability was observed and might have resulted from a diminution in prey detection distance. Fish preferentially selected focal positions in moderate velocity, and low turbulence areas and avoided the highly turbulent locations. Similarly, selection of average downward velocity and avoidance of upward velocity might be associated to the ease at maintaining position. Considering the streamlined shape providing high hydrodynamism, average vertical velocity might be an important feature driving microhabitat selection. Our results do not rule out the effect of turbulence on fish foraging but rather highlights the need to further investigate this question with a wider range of hydraulic values in order to possibly implement a turbulence-dependent prey capture function that might be useful to mechanistic foraging models.

Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horn, J. E.; Harter, T.

2011-06-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems such as septic systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30 % of households are served by a septic system and a private drinking water well. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. Particularly in areas with small lots, thus a high septic system density, these typically shallow wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Typically, mass balance approaches are used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of the aquifer. In this study, we estimate the probability of a well pumping partially septic system leachate. A detailed groundwater and transport model is used to calculate the capture zone of a typical drinking water well. A spatial probability analysis is performed to assess the probability that a capture zone overlaps with a septic system drainfield depending on aquifer properties, lot and drainfield size. We show that a high septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We conclude that mass balances calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances which experience limited attenuation, and those being harmful even in low concentrations.

Estimating breeding proportions and testing hypotheses about costs of reproduction with capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hinz, Robert L.; Link, William A.

1994-01-01

The proportion of animals in a population that breeds is an important determinant of population growth rate. Usual estimates of this quantity from field sampling data assume that the probability of appearing in the capture or count statistic is the same for animals that do and do not breed. A similar assumption is required by most existing methods used to test ecologically interesting hypotheses about reproductive costs using field sampling data. However, in many field sampling situations breeding and nonbreeding animals are likely to exhibit different probabilities of being seen or caught. In this paper, we propose the use of multistate capture-recapture models for these estimation and testing problems. This methodology permits a formal test of the hypothesis of equal capture/sighting probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding individuals. Two estimators of breeding proportion (and associated standard errors) are presented, one for the case of equal capture probabilities and one for the case of unequal capture probabilities. The multistate modeling framework also yields formal tests of hypotheses about reproductive costs to future reproduction or survival or both fitness components. The general methodology is illustrated using capture-recapture data on female meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. Resulting estimates of the proportion of reproductively active females showed strong seasonal variation, as expected, with low breeding proportions in midwinter. We found no evidence of reproductive costs extracted in subsequent survival or reproduction. We believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning breeding proportions and phenotypic reproductive costs.

Effects of environmental covariates and density on the catchability of fish populations and interpretation of catch per unit effort trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Yard, Mike

2017-01-01

Article for outlet: Fisheries Research. Abstract: Quantifying temporal and spatial trends in abundance or relative abundance is required to evaluate effects of harvest and changes in habitat for exploited and endangered fish populations. In many cases, the proportion of the population or stock that is captured (catchability or capture probability) is unknown but is often assumed to be constant over space and time. We used data from a large-scale mark-recapture study to evaluate the extent of spatial and temporal variation, and the effects of fish density, fish size, and environmental covariates, on the capture probability of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River, AZ. Estimates of capture probability for boat electrofishing varied 5-fold across five reaches, 2.8-fold across the range of fish densities that were encountered, 2.1-fold over 19 trips, and 1.6-fold over five fish size classes. Shoreline angle and turbidity were the best covariates explaining variation in capture probability across reaches and trips. Patterns in capture probability were driven by changes in gear efficiency and spatial aggregation, but the latter was more important. Failure to account for effects of fish density on capture probability when translating a historical catch per unit effort time series into a time series of abundance, led to 2.5-fold underestimation of the maximum extent of variation in abundance over the period of record, and resulted in unreliable estimates of relative change in critical years. Catch per unit effort surveys have utility for monitoring long-term trends in relative abundance, but are too imprecise and potentially biased to evaluate population response to habitat changes or to modest changes in fishing effort.

On the dependence on inclination of capture probability of short-period comets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yabushita, S.; Tsujii, T.

1990-06-01

Calculation is made of probability of capture whereby a nearly parabolic comet with perihelion near the Jovian orbit comes to have a perihelion distance less than 2.5 AU and a period less than 200 yr. The probability is found to depend strongly on the inclination, in accordance with earlier results of Everhart and of Stagg and Bailey. It is large for orbits close to the ecliptic but decreases drastically for large inclinations. The overall probability of capture from randomly distributed orbits is 0.00044, which shows that either the presently observed short-period comets are not in a steady state or the source flux may be in the Uranus-Neptune zone.

Contributions of Microtubule Dynamic Instability and Rotational Diffusion to Kinetochore Capture.

PubMed

Blackwell, Robert; Sweezy-Schindler, Oliver; Edelmaier, Christopher; Gergely, Zachary R; Flynn, Patrick J; Montes, Salvador; Crapo, Ammon; Doostan, Alireza; McIntosh, J Richard; Glaser, Matthew A; Betterton, Meredith D

2017-02-07

Microtubule dynamic instability allows search and capture of kinetochores during spindle formation, an important process for accurate chromosome segregation during cell division. Recent work has found that microtubule rotational diffusion about minus-end attachment points contributes to kinetochore capture in fission yeast, but the relative contributions of dynamic instability and rotational diffusion are not well understood. We have developed a biophysical model of kinetochore capture in small fission-yeast nuclei using hybrid Brownian dynamics/kinetic Monte Carlo simulation techniques. With this model, we have studied the importance of dynamic instability and microtubule rotational diffusion for kinetochore capture, both to the lateral surface of a microtubule and at or near its end. Over a range of biologically relevant parameters, microtubule rotational diffusion decreased capture time, but made a relatively small contribution compared to dynamic instability. At most, rotational diffusion reduced capture time by 25%. Our results suggest that while microtubule rotational diffusion can speed up kinetochore capture, it is unlikely to be the dominant physical mechanism for typical conditions in fission yeast. In addition, we found that when microtubules undergo dynamic instability, lateral captures predominate even in the absence of rotational diffusion. Counterintuitively, adding rotational diffusion to a dynamic microtubule increases the probability of end-on capture. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of neutron total and capture cross sections on 99Tc in the unresolved resonance region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwamoto, Nobuyuki; Katabuchi, Tatsuya

2017-09-01

Long-lived fission product Technetium-99 is one of the most important radioisotopes for nuclear transmutation. The reliable nuclear data are indispensable for a wide energy range up to a few MeV, in order to develop environmental load reducing technology. The statistical analyses of resolved resonances were performed by using the truncated Porter-Thomas distribution, coupled-channels optical model, nuclear level density model and Bayes' theorem on conditional probability. The total and capture cross sections were calculated by a nuclear reaction model code CCONE. The resulting cross sections have statistical consistency between the resolved and unresolved resonance regions. The evaluated capture data reproduce those recently measured at ANNRI of J-PARC/MLF above resolved resonance region up to 800 keV.

Capture-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Runge, M.C.

2004-01-01

Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state mark-resighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982?2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.

Game-theoretic strategies for asymmetric networked systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; Hausken, Kjell

Abstract—We consider an infrastructure consisting of a network of systems each composed of discrete components that can be reinforced at a certain cost to guard against attacks. The network provides the vital connectivity between systems, and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. We characterize the system-level correlations using the aggregate failure correlation function that specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network. The survival probabilities of systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure survival as a gamemore » between anattacker and a provider, using the sum-form and product-form utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a cost term. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions which provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities, and also the expected capacity specified by the total number of operational components. These expressions differ only in a single term for the sum-form and product-form utilities, despite their significant differences.We apply these results to simplified models of distributed cloud computing infrastructures.« less

Social learning spreads knowledge about dangerous humans among American crows.

PubMed

Cornell, Heather N; Marzluff, John M; Pecoraro, Shannon

2012-02-07

Individuals face evolutionary trade-offs between the acquisition of costly but accurate information gained firsthand and the use of inexpensive but possibly less reliable social information. American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) use both sources of information to learn the facial features of a dangerous person. We exposed wild crows to a novel 'dangerous face' by wearing a unique mask as we trapped, banded and released 7-15 birds at five study sites near Seattle, WA, USA. An immediate scolding response to the dangerous mask after trapping by previously captured crows demonstrates individual learning, while an immediate response by crows that were not captured probably represents conditioning to the trapping scene by the mob of birds that assembled during the capture. Later recognition of dangerous masks by lone crows that were never captured is consistent with horizontal social learning. Independent scolding by young crows, whose parents had conditioned them to scold the dangerous mask, demonstrates vertical social learning. Crows that directly experienced trapping later discriminated among dangerous and neutral masks more precisely than did crows that learned through social means. Learning enabled scolding to double in frequency and spread at least 1.2 km from the place of origin over a 5 year period at one site.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

PubMed

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Estimation of stream salamander (Plethodontidae, Desmognathinae and Plethodontinae) populations in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jung, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Sauer, J.R.; Addison, C.; Rau, R.D.; Shirk, J.L.; Whissel, J.C.

2005-01-01

Stream salamanders in the family Plethodontidae constitute a large biomass in and near headwater streams in the eastern United States and are promising indicators of stream ecosystem health. Many studies of stream salamanders have relied on population indices based on counts rather than population estimates based on techniques such as capture-recapture and removal. Application of estimation procedures allows the calculation of detection probabilities (the proportion of total animals present that are detected during a survey) and their associated sampling error, and may be essential for determining salamander population sizes and trends. In 1999, we conducted capture-recapture and removal population estimation methods for Desmognathus salamanders at six streams in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Removal sampling appeared more efficient and detection probabilities from removal data were higher than those from capture-recapture. During 2001-2004, we used removal estimation at eight streams in the park to assess the usefulness of this technique for long-term monitoring of stream salamanders. Removal detection probabilities ranged from 0.39 to 0.96 for Desmognathus, 0.27 to 0.89 for Eurycea and 0.27 to 0.75 for northern spring (Gyrinophilus porphyriticus) and northern red (Pseudotriton ruber) salamanders across stream transects. Detection probabilities did not differ across years for Desmognathus and Eurycea, but did differ among streams for Desmognathus. Population estimates of Desmognathus decreased between 2001-2002 and 2003-2004 which may be related to changes in stream flow conditions. Removal-based procedures may be a feasible approach for population estimation of salamanders, but field methods should be designed to meet the assumptions of the sampling procedures. New approaches to estimating stream salamander populations are discussed.

Toward noncooperative iris recognition: a classification approach using multiple signatures.

PubMed

Proença, Hugo; Alexandre, Luís A

2007-04-01

This paper focuses on noncooperative iris recognition, i.e., the capture of iris images at large distances, under less controlled lighting conditions, and without active participation of the subjects. This increases the probability of capturing very heterogeneous images (regarding focus, contrast, or brightness) and with several noise factors (iris obstructions and reflections). Current iris recognition systems are unable to deal with noisy data and substantially increase their error rates, especially the false rejections, in these conditions. We propose an iris classification method that divides the segmented and normalized iris image into six regions, makes an independent feature extraction and comparison for each region, and combines each of the dissimilarity values through a classification rule. Experiments show a substantial decrease, higher than 40 percent, of the false rejection rates in the recognition of noisy iris images.

Capture mechanism in Palaeotropical pitcher plants (Nepenthaceae) is constrained by climate

PubMed Central

Moran, Jonathan A.; Gray, Laura K.; Clarke, Charles; Chin, Lijin

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Nepenthes (Nepenthaceae, approx. 120 species) are carnivorous pitcher plants with a centre of diversity comprising the Philippines, Borneo, Sumatra and Sulawesi. Nepenthes pitchers use three main mechanisms for capturing prey: epicuticular waxes inside the pitcher; a wettable peristome (a collar-shaped structure around the opening); and viscoelastic fluid. Previous studies have provided evidence suggesting that the first mechanism may be more suited to seasonal climates, whereas the latter two might be more suited to perhumid environments. In this study, this idea was tested using climate envelope modelling. Methods A total of 94 species, comprising 1978 populations, were grouped by prey capture mechanism (large peristome, small peristome, waxy, waxless, viscoelastic, non-viscoelastic, ‘wet’ syndrome and ‘dry’ syndrome). Nineteen bioclimatic variables were used to model habitat suitability at approx. 1 km resolution for each group, using Maxent, a presence-only species distribution modelling program. Key Results Prey capture groups putatively associated with perhumid conditions (large peristome, waxless, viscoelastic and ‘wet’ syndrome) had more restricted areas of probable habitat suitability than those associated putatively with less humid conditions (small peristome, waxy, non-viscoelastic and‘dry’ syndrome). Overall, the viscoelastic group showed the most restricted area of modelled suitable habitat. Conclusions The current study is the first to demonstrate that the prey capture mechanism in a carnivorous plant is constrained by climate. Nepenthes species employing peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture are largely restricted to perhumid regions; in contrast, the wax-based mechanism allows successful capture in both perhumid and more seasonal areas. Possible reasons for the maintenance of peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture mechanisms in Nepenthes are discussed in relation to the costs and benefits associated with a given prey capture strategy. PMID:23975653

Capture mechanism in Palaeotropical pitcher plants (Nepenthaceae) is constrained by climate.

PubMed

Moran, Jonathan A; Gray, Laura K; Clarke, Charles; Chin, Lijin

2013-11-01

Nepenthes (Nepenthaceae, approx. 120 species) are carnivorous pitcher plants with a centre of diversity comprising the Philippines, Borneo, Sumatra and Sulawesi. Nepenthes pitchers use three main mechanisms for capturing prey: epicuticular waxes inside the pitcher; a wettable peristome (a collar-shaped structure around the opening); and viscoelastic fluid. Previous studies have provided evidence suggesting that the first mechanism may be more suited to seasonal climates, whereas the latter two might be more suited to perhumid environments. In this study, this idea was tested using climate envelope modelling. A total of 94 species, comprising 1978 populations, were grouped by prey capture mechanism (large peristome, small peristome, waxy, waxless, viscoelastic, non-viscoelastic, 'wet' syndrome and 'dry' syndrome). Nineteen bioclimatic variables were used to model habitat suitability at approx. 1 km resolution for each group, using Maxent, a presence-only species distribution modelling program. Prey capture groups putatively associated with perhumid conditions (large peristome, waxless, viscoelastic and 'wet' syndrome) had more restricted areas of probable habitat suitability than those associated putatively with less humid conditions (small peristome, waxy, non-viscoelastic and'dry' syndrome). Overall, the viscoelastic group showed the most restricted area of modelled suitable habitat. The current study is the first to demonstrate that the prey capture mechanism in a carnivorous plant is constrained by climate. Nepenthes species employing peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture are largely restricted to perhumid regions; in contrast, the wax-based mechanism allows successful capture in both perhumid and more seasonal areas. Possible reasons for the maintenance of peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture mechanisms in Nepenthes are discussed in relation to the costs and benefits associated with a given prey capture strategy.

Estimating temporary emigration and breeding proportions using capture-recapture data with Pollock's robust design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

1997-01-01

Statistical inference for capture-recapture studies of open animal populations typically relies on the assumption that all emigration from the studied population is permanent. However, there are many instances in which this assumption is unlikely to be met. We define two general models for the process of temporary emigration, completely random and Markovian. We then consider effects of these two types of temporary emigration on Jolly-Seber (Seber 1982) estimators and on estimators arising from the full-likelihood approach of Kendall et al. (1995) to robust design data. Capture-recapture data arising from Pollock's (1982) robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration. We present a likelihood-based approach to dealing with temporary emigration that permits estimation under different models of temporary emigration and yields tests for completely random and Markovian emigration. In addition, we use the relationship between capture probability estimates based on closed and open models under completely random temporary emigration to derive three ad hoc estimators for the probability of temporary emigration, two of which should be especially useful in situations where capture probabilities are heterogeneous among individual animals. Ad hoc and full-likelihood estimators are illustrated for small mammal capture-recapture data sets. We believe that these models and estimators will be useful for testing hypotheses about the process of temporary emigration, for estimating demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating probabilities of temporary emigration. These latter estimates are frequently of ecological interest as indicators of animal movement and, in some sampling situations, as direct estimates of breeding probabilities and proportions.

Survival-mediated capture and fusion cross sections for heavy-element synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, L.; Loveland, W.

2018-01-01

The cross section for producing a heavy evaporation residue σEVR in a fusion reaction can be written as a product of three nonseparable factors, i.e., the capture cross section, the fusion probability PCN, and the survival probability Wsur. Each of these factors is dependent on the spin. However, one must remember that the Wsur term is zero or very small for higher spin values, thus effectively limiting the capture and fusion terms. For a series of ˜287 reactions leading to heavy evaporation residues with ZCN≤110 , we point out the implications of this fact for capture cross sections for heavy element formation reactions. From a comparison of calculated and measured evaporation residue cross sections we deduce values of the fusion probability PCN for some of these reactions.

A comparison of conventional capture versus PIT reader techniques for estimating survival and capture probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, L.E.; O'Shea, T.J.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Pearce, R.D.; Bowen, R.A.

2007-01-01

We compared conventional capture (primarily mist nets and harp traps) and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging techniques for estimating capture and survival probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) roosting in buildings in Fort Collins, Colorado. A total of 987 female adult and juvenile bats were captured and marked by subdermal injection of PIT tags during the summers of 2001-2005 at five maternity colonies in buildings. Openings to roosts were equipped with PIT hoop-style readers, and exit and entry of bats were passively monitored on a daily basis throughout the summers of 2002-2005. PIT readers 'recaptured' adult and juvenile females more often than conventional capture events at each roost. Estimates of annual capture probabilities for all five colonies were on average twice as high when estimated from PIT reader data (P?? = 0.93-1.00) than when derived from conventional techniques (P?? = 0.26-0.66), and as a consequence annual survival estimates were more precisely estimated when using PIT reader encounters. Short-term, daily capture estimates were also higher using PIT readers than conventional captures. We discuss the advantages and limitations of using PIT tags and passive encounters with hoop readers vs. conventional capture techniques for estimating these vital parameters in big brown bats. ?? Museum and Institute of Zoology PAS.

Application of a multistate model to estimate culvert effects on movement of small fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, J.R.; Hagler, M.M.; Freeman, Mary C.; Freeman, B.J.

2009-01-01

While it is widely acknowledged that culverted road-stream crossings may impede fish passage, effects of culverts on movement of nongame and small-bodied fishes have not been extensively studied and studies generally have not accounted for spatial variation in capture probabilities. We estimated probabilities for upstream and downstream movement of small (30-120 mm standard length) benthic and water column fishes across stream reaches with and without culverts at four road-stream crossings over a 4-6-week period. Movement and reach-specific capture probabilities were estimated using multistate capture-recapture models. Although none of the culverts were complete barriers to passage, only a bottomless-box culvert appeared to permit unrestricted upstream and downstream movements by benthic fishes based on model estimates of movement probabilities. At two box culverts that were perched above the water surface at base flow, observed movements were limited to water column fishes and to intervals when runoff from storm events raised water levels above the perched level. Only a single fish was observed to move through a partially embedded pipe culvert. Estimates for probabilities of movement over distances equal to at least the length of one culvert were low (e.g., generally ???0.03, estimated for 1-2-week intervals) and had wide 95% confidence intervals as a consequence of few observed movements to nonadjacent reaches. Estimates of capture probabilities varied among reaches by a factor of 2 to over 10, illustrating the importance of accounting for spatially variable capture rates when estimating movement probabilities with capture-recapture data. Longer-term studies are needed to evaluate temporal variability in stream fish passage at culverts (e.g., in relation to streamflow variability) and to thereby better quantify the degree of population fragmentation caused by road-stream crossings with culverts. ?? American Fisheries Society 2009.

[Estimating survival of thrushes: modeling capture-recapture probabilities].

PubMed

Burskiî, O V

2011-01-01

The stochastic modeling technique serves as a way to correctly separate "return rate" of marked animals into survival rate (phi) and capture probability (p). The method can readily be used with the program MARK freely distributed through Internet (Cooch, White, 2009). Input data for the program consist of "capture histories" of marked animals--strings of units and zeros indicating presence or absence of the individual among captures (or sightings) along the set of consequent recapture occasions (e.g., years). Probability of any history is a product of binomial probabilities phi, p or their complements (1 - phi) and (1 - p) for each year of observation over the individual. Assigning certain values to parameters phi and p, one can predict the composition of all individual histories in the sample and assess the likelihood of the prediction. The survival parameters for different occasions and cohorts of individuals can be set either equal or different, as well as recapture parameters can be set in different ways. There is a possibility to constraint the parameters, according to the hypothesis being tested, in the form of a specific model. Within the specified constraints, the program searches for parameter values that describe the observed composition of histories with the maximum likelihood. It computes the parameter estimates along with confidence limits and the overall model likelihood. There is a set of tools for testing the model goodness-of-fit under assumption of equality of survival rates among individuals and independence of their fates. Other tools offer a proper selection among a possible variety of models, providing the best parity between details and precision in describing reality. The method was applied to 20-yr recapture and resighting data series on 4 thrush species (genera Turdus, Zoothera) breeding in the Yenisei River floodplain within the middle taiga subzone. The capture probabilities were quite independent of observational efforts fluctuations while differing significantly between the species and sexes. The estimates of adult survival rate, obtained for the Siberian migratory populations, were lower than those for sedentary populations from both the tropics and intermediate latitudes with marine climate (data by Ricklefs, 1997). Two factors, the average temperature influencing birds during their annual movements, and climatic seasonality (temperature difference between summer and winter) in the breeding area, fit the latitudinal pattern of survival most closely (R2 = 0.90). Final survival of migrants reflects an adaptive life history compromise for use of superabundant resources in breeding area at the cost of avoidance of severe winter conditions.

Individual heterogeneity and identifiability in capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2004-01-01

Individual heterogeneity in detection probabilities is a far more serious problem for capture-recapture modeling than has previously been recognized. In this note, I illustrate that population size is not an identifiable parameter under the general closed population mark-recapture model Mh. The problem of identifiability is obvious if the population includes individuals with pi = 0, but persists even when it is assumed that individual detection probabilities are bounded away from zero. Identifiability may be attained within parametric families of distributions for pi, but not among parametric families of distributions. Consequently, in the presence of individual heterogeneity in detection probability, capture-recapture analysis is strongly model dependent.

Formation of S-type planets in close binaries: scattering induced tidal capture of circumbinary planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Yan-Xiang; Ji, Jianghui

2018-05-01

Although several S-type and P-type planets in binary systems were discovered in past years, S-type planets have not yet been found in close binaries with an orbital separation not more than 5 au. Recent studies suggest that S-type planets in close binaries may be detected through high-accuracy observations. However, nowadays planet formation theories imply that it is difficult for S-type planets in close binaries systems to form in situ. In this work, we extensively perform numerical simulations to explore scenarios of planet-planet scattering among circumbinary planets and subsequent tidal capture in various binary configurations, to examine whether the mechanism can play a part in producing such kind of planets. Our results show that this mechanism is robust. The maximum capture probability is ˜10%, which can be comparable to the tidal capture probability of hot Jupiters in single star systems. The capture probability is related to binary configurations, where a smaller eccentricity or a low mass ratio of the binary will lead to a larger probability of capture, and vice versa. Furthermore, we find that S-type planets with retrograde orbits can be naturally produced via capture process. These planets on retrograde orbits can help us distinguish in situ formation and post-capture origin for S-type planet in close binaries systems. The forthcoming missions (PLATO) will provide the opportunity and feasibility to detect such planets. Our work provides several suggestions for selecting target binaries in search for S-type planets in the near future.

Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

PubMed Central

Farley, Sean; Russell, Gareth J.; Butler, Matthew J.; Selinger, Jeff

2013-01-01

Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km2 cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions, which raised capture probabilities. The grid design was least biased (−10.5%), but imprecise (CV 21.2%), and used most effort (16,100 trap-nights). The targeted configuration was more biased (−17.3%), but most precise (CV 12.3%), with least effort (7,000 trap-nights). Targeted sampling generated encounter rates four times higher, and capture and recapture probabilities 11% and 60% higher than grid sampling, in a sampling frame 88% smaller. Bears had unequal probability of capture with both sampling designs, partly because some bears never had traps available to sample them. Hence, grid and targeted sampling generated abundance indices, not estimates. Overall, targeted sampling provided the most accurate and affordable design to index abundance. Targeted sampling may offer an alternative method to index the abundance of other species inhabiting expansive and inaccessible landscapes elsewhere, provided their attraction to resource concentrations. PMID:24392290

Potential for parasite-induced biases in aquatic invertebrate population studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, Justin D.L.; Mushet, David M.; Stockwell, Craig A.

2014-01-01

Recent studies highlight the need to include estimates of detection/capture probability in population studies. This need is particularly important in studies where detection and/or capture probability is influenced by parasite-induced behavioral alterations. We assessed potential biases associated with sampling a population of the amphipod Gammarus lacustris in the presence of Polymorphus spp. acanthocephalan parasites shown to increase positive phototaxis in their amphipod hosts. We trapped G. lacustris at two water depths (benthic and surface) and compared number of captures and number of parasitized individuals at each depth. While we captured the greatest number of G. lacustris individuals in benthic traps, parasitized individuals were captured most often in surface traps. These results reflect the phototaxic movement of infected individuals from benthic locations to sunlit surface waters. We then explored the influence of varying infection rates on a simulated population held at a constant level of abundance. Simulations resulted in increasingly biased abundance estimates as infection rates increased. Our results highlight the need to consider parasite-induced biases when quantifying detection and/or capture probability in studies of aquatic invertebrate populations.

Movement patterns and study area boundaries: Influences on survival estimation in capture-mark-recapture studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horton, G.E.; Letcher, B.H.

2008-01-01

The inability to account for the availability of individuals in the study area during capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies and the resultant confounding of parameter estimates can make correct interpretation of CMR model parameter estimates difficult. Although important advances based on the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model have resulted in estimators of true survival that work by unconfounding either death or recapture probability from availability for capture in the study area, these methods rely on the researcher's ability to select a method that is correctly matched to emigration patterns in the population. If incorrect assumptions regarding site fidelity (non-movement) are made, it may be difficult or impossible as well as costly to change the study design once the incorrect assumption is discovered. Subtleties in characteristics of movement (e.g. life history-dependent emigration, nomads vs territory holders) can lead to mixtures in the probability of being available for capture among members of the same population. The result of these mixtures may be only a partial unconfounding of emigration from other CMR model parameters. Biologically-based differences in individual movement can combine with constraints on study design to further complicate the problem. Because of the intricacies of movement and its interaction with other parameters in CMR models, quantification of and solutions to these problems are needed. Based on our work with stream-dwelling populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, we used a simulation approach to evaluate existing CMR models under various mixtures of movement probabilities. The Barker joint data model provided unbiased estimates of true survival under all conditions tested. The CJS and robust design models provided similarly unbiased estimates of true survival but only when emigration information could be incorporated directly into individual encounter histories. For the robust design model, Markovian emigration (future availability for capture depends on an individual's current location) was a difficult emigration pattern to detect unless survival and especially recapture probability were high. Additionally, when local movement was high relative to study area boundaries and movement became more diffuse (e.g. a random walk), local movement and permanent emigration were difficult to distinguish and had consequences for correctly interpreting the survival parameter being estimated (apparent survival vs true survival). ?? 2008 The Authors.

CONDITIONS OF PASSAGE AND ENTRAPMENT OF TERRESTRIAL PLANETS IN SPIN-ORBIT RESONANCES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Valeri V., E-mail: vvm@usno.navy.mil

The dynamical evolution of terrestrial planets resembling Mercury in the vicinity of spin-orbit resonances is investigated using comprehensive harmonic expansions of the tidal torque taking into account the frequency-dependent quality factors and Love numbers. The torque equations are integrated numerically with a small step in time, including the oscillating triaxial torque components but neglecting the layered structure of the planet and assuming a zero obliquity. We find that a Mercury-like planet with a current value of orbital eccentricity (0.2056) is always captured in 3:2 resonance. The probability of capture in the higher 2:1 resonance is approximately 0.23. These results aremore » confirmed by a semi-analytical estimation of capture probabilities as functions of eccentricity for both prograde and retrograde evolutions of spin rate. As follows from analysis of equilibrium torques, entrapment in 3:2 resonance is inevitable at eccentricities between 0.2 and 0.41. Considering the phase space parameters at the times of periastron, the range of spin rates and phase angles for which an immediate resonance passage is triggered is very narrow, and yet a planet like Mercury rarely fails to align itself into this state of unstable equilibrium before it traverses 2:1 resonance.« less

Social learning spreads knowledge about dangerous humans among American crows

PubMed Central

Cornell, Heather N.; Marzluff, John M.; Pecoraro, Shannon

2012-01-01

Individuals face evolutionary trade-offs between the acquisition of costly but accurate information gained firsthand and the use of inexpensive but possibly less reliable social information. American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) use both sources of information to learn the facial features of a dangerous person. We exposed wild crows to a novel ‘dangerous face’ by wearing a unique mask as we trapped, banded and released 7–15 birds at five study sites near Seattle, WA, USA. An immediate scolding response to the dangerous mask after trapping by previously captured crows demonstrates individual learning, while an immediate response by crows that were not captured probably represents conditioning to the trapping scene by the mob of birds that assembled during the capture. Later recognition of dangerous masks by lone crows that were never captured is consistent with horizontal social learning. Independent scolding by young crows, whose parents had conditioned them to scold the dangerous mask, demonstrates vertical social learning. Crows that directly experienced trapping later discriminated among dangerous and neutral masks more precisely than did crows that learned through social means. Learning enabled scolding to double in frequency and spread at least 1.2 km from the place of origin over a 5 year period at one site. PMID:21715408

From Threat to Fear: The neural organization of defensive fear systems in humans

PubMed Central

Mobbs, Dean; Marchant, Jennifer L; Hassabis, Demis; Seymour, Ben; Tan, Geoffrey; Gray, Marcus; Petrovic, Predrag; Dolan, Raymond J.; Frith, Christopher D.

2009-01-01

Post-encounter and circa-strike defensive contexts represent two adaptive responses to potential and imminent danger. In the context of a predator, the post-encounter reflects the initial detection of the potential threat, whilst the circa-strike is associated with direct predatory attack. We used fMRI to investigate the neural organization of anticipation and avoidance of artificial predators with high or low probability of capturing the subject across analogous post-encounter and circa-strike contexts of threat. Consistent with defense systems models, post-encounter threat elicited activity in forebrain areas including subgenual anterior cingulate cortex (sgACC), hippocampus and amygdala. Conversely, active avoidance during circa-strike threat increased activity in mid-dorsal ACC and midbrain areas. During the circa-strike condition, subjects showed increased coupling between the midbrain and mid-dorsal ACC and decreased coupling with the sgACC, amygdala and hippocampus. Greater activity was observed in the right pregenual ACC for high compared to low probability of capture during circa-strike threat. This region showed decreased coupling with the amygdala, insula and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Finally, we found that locomotor errors correlated with subjective reports of panic for the high compared to low probability of capture during the circa-strike threat and these panic-related locomotor errors were correlated with midbrain activity. These findings support models suggesting that higher forebrain areas are involved in early threat responses, including the assignment and control of fear, whereas as imminent danger results in fast, likely “hard-wired”, defensive reactions mediated by the midbrain. PMID:19793982

Multiple data sources improve DNA-based mark-recapture population estimates of grizzly bears.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Kendall, Katherine C; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Roon, David A; Waits, Lisette P; Paetkau, David

2008-04-01

A fundamental challenge to estimating population size with mark-recapture methods is heterogeneous capture probabilities and subsequent bias of population estimates. Confronting this problem usually requires substantial sampling effort that can be difficult to achieve for some species, such as carnivores. We developed a methodology that uses two data sources to deal with heterogeneity and applied this to DNA mark-recapture data from grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). We improved population estimates by incorporating additional DNA "captures" of grizzly bears obtained by collecting hair from unbaited bear rub trees concurrently with baited, grid-based, hair snag sampling. We consider a Lincoln-Petersen estimator with hair snag captures as the initial session and rub tree captures as the recapture session and develop an estimator in program MARK that treats hair snag and rub tree samples as successive sessions. Using empirical data from a large-scale project in the greater Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, area and simulation modeling we evaluate these methods and compare the results to hair-snag-only estimates. Empirical results indicate that, compared with hair-snag-only data, the joint hair-snag-rub-tree methods produce similar but more precise estimates if capture and recapture rates are reasonably high for both methods. Simulation results suggest that estimators are potentially affected by correlation of capture probabilities between sample types in the presence of heterogeneity. Overall, closed population Huggins-Pledger estimators showed the highest precision and were most robust to sparse data, heterogeneity, and capture probability correlation among sampling types. Results also indicate that these estimators can be used when a segment of the population has zero capture probability for one of the methods. We propose that this general methodology may be useful for other species in which mark-recapture data are available from multiple sources.

Performance analysis of a generalized upset detection procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blough, Douglas M.; Masson, Gerald M.

1987-01-01

A general procedure for upset detection in complex systems, called the data block capture and analysis upset monitoring process is described and analyzed. The process consists of repeatedly recording a fixed amount of data from a set of predetermined observation lines of the system being monitored (i.e., capturing a block of data), and then analyzing the captured block in an attempt to determine whether the system is functioning correctly. The algorithm which analyzes the data blocks can be characterized in terms of the amount of time it requires to examine a given length data block to ascertain the existence of features/conditions that have been predetermined to characterize the upset-free behavior of the system. The performance of linear, quadratic, and logarithmic data analysis algorithms is rigorously characterized in terms of three performance measures: (1) the probability of correctly detecting an upset; (2) the expected number of false alarms; and (3) the expected latency in detecting upsets.

Winter movement dynamics of Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

2007-01-01

Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998-Mar 2000) using capture-recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

Emirates Mars Mission Planetary Protection Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awadhi, Mohsen Al

2016-07-01

The United Arab Emirates is planning to launch a spacecraft to Mars in 2020 as part of the Emirates Mars Mission (EMM). The EMM spacecraft, Amal, will arrive in early 2021 and enter orbit about Mars. Through a sequence of subsequent maneuvers, the spacecraft will enter a large science orbit and remain there throughout the primary mission. This paper describes the planetary protection plan for the EMM mission. The EMM science orbit, where Amal will conduct the majority of its operations, is very large compared to other Mars orbiters. The nominal orbit has a periapse altitude of 20,000 km, an apoapse altitude of 43,000 km, and an inclination of 25 degrees. From this vantage point, Amal will conduct a series of atmospheric investigations. Since Amal's orbit is very large, the planetary protection plan is to demonstrate a very low probability that the spacecraft will ever encounter Mars' surface or lower atmosphere during the mission. The EMM team has prepared methods to demonstrate that (1) the launch vehicle targets support a 0.01% probability of impacting Mars, or less, within 50 years; (2) the spacecraft has a 1% probability or less of impacting Mars during 20 years; and (3) the spacecraft has a 5% probability or less of impacting Mars during 50 years. The EMM mission design resembles the mission design of many previous missions, differing only in the specific parameters and final destination. The following sequence describes the mission: 1.The mission will launch in July, 2020. The launch includes a brief parking orbit and a direct injection to the interplanetary cruise. The launch targets are specified by the hyperbolic departure's energy C3, and the hyperbolic departure's direction in space, captured by the right ascension and declination of the launch asymptote, RLA and DLA, respectively. The targets of the launch vehicle are biased away from Mars such that there is a 0.01% probability or less that the launch vehicle arrives onto a trajectory that impacts Mars. 2.The spacecraft is deployed from the launch vehicle and powers on. 3.Within the first month, the spacecraft executes a trajectory correction maneuver to remove the launch bias. The target of this maneuver may still have a small bias to further reduce the probability of inadvertently impacting Mars. 4.Four additional trajectory correction maneuvers are scheduled and planned in the interplanetary cruise in order to target the precise arrival conditions at Mars. The targeted arrival conditions are specified by an altitude above the surface of Mars and an inclination relative to Mars' equator. The closest approach to Mars during the Mars Orbit Insertion (MOI) is over 600 km and the periapsis altitude of the first orbit about Mars is nominally 500 km. The inclination of the first orbit about Mars is nominally around 18 degrees. 5.The Mars Orbit Insertion is performed as a pitch-over burn, approaching no closer than approximately 600 km, and targeting a capture orbit period of 35-40 hours. 6.The spacecraft Capture Orbit has a nominal periapse altitude of 500 km, a nominal apoapse altitude of approximately 45,000 km, and a nominal period of approximately 35 hours. The mission expects that this orbit will be somewhat different after executing the real MOI due to maneuver execution errors. The full range of expected Capture Orbit sizes is acceptable from a planetary protection perspective. 7.The spacecraft remains in the Capture Orbit for two months. 8.The spacecraft then executes three maneuvers in the Transition to Science phase, raising the orbital periapse, raising the orbit inclination, adjusting the apoapse, and placing the argument of periapse near a value of 177 deg. The three maneuvers are nominally one week apart. The first maneuver is large and will raise the periapse significantly, thereafter significantly reducing the probability of Amal impacting Mars in the future.

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, M.T.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Rodda, G.H.; Savidge, J.A.; Tyrrell, C.L.

2010-01-01

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

The quick acquisition technique for laser communication between LEO and GEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li-zhong; Zhang, Rui-qin; Li, Yong-hao; Meng, Li-xin; Li, Xiao-ming

2013-08-01

The sight-axis alignment can be accomplished by the quick acquisition operation between two laser communication terminals, which is the premise of establishing a free-space optical communication link. Especially for the laser communication links of LEO (Low Earth Orbit)-Ground and LEO-GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit), since the earth would break the transmission of laser and break the communication as well, so the effective time for each communication is very shot (several minutes~ dozens of minutes), as a result the communication terminals have to capture each other to rebuild the laser communication link. In the paper, on the basis of the analysis of the traditional methods, it presents a new idea that using the long beacon light instead of the circular beacon light; thereby the original of two-dimensional raster spiral scanning is replaced by one-dimensional scanning. This method will reduce the setup time and decrease the failure probability of acquisition for the LEO-GEO laser communication link. Firstly, the analysis of the external constraint conditions in the acquisition phase has been presented in this paper. Furthermore, the acquisition algorithm models have been established. The optimization analysis for the parameters of the acquisition unit has been carried out, and the ground validation experiments of the acquisition strategy have also been performed. The experiments and analysis show that compared with traditional capturing methods, the method presented in this article can make the capturing time be shortened by about 40%, and the failure probability of capturing be reduced by about 30%. So, the method is significant for the LEO-GEO laser communication link.

Noise, gain, and capture probability of p-type InAs-GaAs quantum-dot and quantum dot-in-well infrared photodetectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolde, Seyoum; Lao, Yan-Feng; Unil Perera, A. G.; Zhang, Y. H.; Wang, T. M.; Kim, J. O.; Schuler-Sandy, Ted; Tian, Zhao-Bing; Krishna, S.

2017-06-01

We report experimental results showing how the noise in a Quantum-Dot Infrared photodetector (QDIP) and Quantum Dot-in-a-well (DWELL) varies with the electric field and temperature. At lower temperatures (below ˜100 K), the noise current of both types of detectors is dominated by generation-recombination (G-R) noise which is consistent with a mechanism of fluctuations driven by the electric field and thermal noise. The noise gain, capture probability, and carrier life time for bound-to-continuum or quasi-bound transitions in DWELL and QDIP structures are discussed. The capture probability of DWELL is found to be more than two times higher than the corresponding QDIP. Based on the analysis, structural parameters such as the numbers of active layers, the surface density of QDs, and the carrier capture or relaxation rate, type of material, and electric field are some of the optimization parameters identified to improve the gain of devices.

Coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data on capture zone uncertainty analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rahman, A.; Tsai, F.T.-C.; White, C.D.; Willson, C.S.

2008-01-01

This study investigates capture zone uncertainty that relates to the coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data. Semivariogram uncertainty is represented by the uncertainty in structural parameters (range, sill, and nugget). We used the beta distribution function to derive the prior distributions of structural parameters. The probability distributions of structural parameters were further updated through the Bayesian approach with the Gaussian likelihood functions. Cokriging of noncollocated pumping test data and electrical resistivity data was conducted to better estimate hydraulic conductivity through autosemivariograms and pseudo-cross-semivariogram. Sensitivities of capture zone variability with respect to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, porosity and aquifer thickness were analyzed using ANOVA. The proposed methodology was applied to the analysis of capture zone uncertainty at the Chicot aquifer in Southwestern Louisiana, where a regional groundwater flow model was developed. MODFLOW-MODPATH was adopted to delineate the capture zone. The ANOVA results showed that both capture zone area and compactness were sensitive to hydraulic conductivity variation. We concluded that the capture zone uncertainty due to the semivariogram uncertainty is much higher than that due to the kriging uncertainty for given semivariograms. In other words, the sole use of conditional variances of kriging may greatly underestimate the flow response uncertainty. Semivariogram uncertainty should also be taken into account in the uncertainty analysis. ?? 2008 ASCE.

Predictive models attribute effects on fish assemblages to toxicity and habitat alteration.

PubMed

de Zwart, Dick; Dyer, Scott D; Posthuma, Leo; Hawkins, Charles P

2006-08-01

Biological assessments should both estimate the condition of a biological resource (magnitude of alteration) and provide environmental managers with a diagnosis of the potential causes of impairment. Although methods of quantifying condition are well developed, identifying and proportionately attributing impairment to probable causes remain problematic. Furthermore, analyses of both condition and cause have often been difficult to communicate. We developed an approach that (1) links fish, habitat, and chemistry data collected from hundreds of sites in Ohio (USA) streams, (2) assesses the biological condition at each site, (3) attributes impairment to multiple probable causes, and (4) provides the results of the analyses in simple-to-interpret pie charts. The data set was managed using a geographic information system. Biological condition was assessed using a RIVPACS (river invertebrate prediction and classification system)-like predictive model. The model provided probabilities of capture for 117 fish species based on the geographic location of sites and local habitat descriptors. Impaired biological condition was defined as the proportion of those native species predicted to occur at a site that were observed. The potential toxic effects of exposure to mixtures of contaminants were estimated using species sensitivity distributions and mixture toxicity principles. Generalized linear regression models described species abundance as a function of habitat characteristics. Statistically linking biological condition, habitat characteristics including mixture risks, and species abundance allowed us to evaluate the losses of species with environmental conditions. Results were mapped as simple effect and probable-cause pie charts (EPC pie diagrams), with pie sizes corresponding to magnitude of local impairment, and slice sizes to the relative probable contributions of different stressors. The types of models we used have been successfully applied in ecology and ecotoxicology, but they have not previously been used in concert to quantify impairment and its likely causes. Although data limitations constrained our ability to examine complex interactions between stressors and species, the direct relationships we detected likely represent conservative estimates of stressor contributions to local impairment. Future refinements of the general approach and specific methods described here should yield even more promising results.

An evaluation of multipass electrofishing for estimating the abundance of stream-dwelling salmonids

Treesearch

James T. Peterson; Russell F. Thurow; John W. Guzevich

2004-01-01

Failure to estimate capture efficiency, defined as the probability of capturing individual fish, can introduce a systematic error or bias into estimates of fish abundance. We evaluated the efficacy of multipass electrofishing removal methods for estimating fish abundance by comparing estimates of capture efficiency from multipass removal estimates to capture...

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

PubMed

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park's population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions.

Mercury's capture into the 3/2 spin-orbit resonance as a result of its chaotic dynamics.

PubMed

Correia, Alexandre C M; Laskar, Jacques

2004-06-24

Mercury is locked into a 3/2 spin-orbit resonance where it rotates three times on its axis for every two orbits around the sun. The stability of this equilibrium state is well established, but our understanding of how this state initially arose remains unsatisfactory. Unless one uses an unrealistic tidal model with constant torques (which cannot account for the observed damping of the libration of the planet) the computed probability of capture into 3/2 resonance is very low (about 7 per cent). This led to the proposal that core-mantle friction may have increased the capture probability, but such a process requires very specific values of the core viscosity. Here we show that the chaotic evolution of Mercury's orbit can drive its eccentricity beyond 0.325 during the planet's history, which very efficiently leads to its capture into the 3/2 resonance. In our numerical integrations of 1,000 orbits of Mercury over 4 Gyr, capture into the 3/2 spin-orbit resonant state was the most probable final outcome of the planet's evolution, occurring 55.4 per cent of the time.

Tests for senescent decline in annual survival probabilities of common pochards, Aythya ferina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Blums, P.

1997-01-01

Senescent decline in survival probabilities of animals is a topic about which much has been written but little is known. Here, we present formal tests of senescence hypotheses, using 1373 recaptures from 8877 duckling (age 0) and 504 yearling Common Pochards (Aythya ferina) banded at a Latvian study site, 1975-1992. The tests are based on capture-recapture models that explicitly incorporate sampling probabilities that, themselves, may exhibit timeand age-specific variation. The tests provided no evidence of senescent decline in survival probabilities for this species. Power of the most useful test was low for gradual declines in annual survival probability with age, but good for steeper declines. We recommend use of this type of capture-recapture modeling and analysis for other investigations of senescence in animal survival rates.

Kidnapping model: an extension of Selten's game.

PubMed

Iqbal, Azhar; Masson, Virginie; Abbott, Derek

2017-12-01

Selten's game is a kidnapping model where the probability of capturing the kidnapper is independent of whether the hostage has been released or executed. Most often, in view of the elevated sensitivities involved, authorities put greater effort and resources into capturing the kidnapper if the hostage has been executed, in contrast with the case when a ransom is paid to secure the hostage's release. In this paper, we study the asymmetric game when the probability of capturing the kidnapper depends on whether the hostage has been executed or not and find a new uniquely determined perfect equilibrium point in Selten's game.

The use of auxiliary variables in capture-recapture and removal experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, K.H.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

1984-01-01

The dependence of animal capture probabilities on auxiliary variables is an important practical problem which has not been considered in the development of estimation procedures for capture-recapture and removal experiments. In this paper the linear logistic binary regression model is used to relate the probability of capture to continuous auxiliary variables. The auxiliary variables could be environmental quantities such as air or water temperature, or characteristics of individual animals, such as body length or weight. Maximum likelihood estimators of the population parameters are considered for a variety of models which all assume a closed population. Testing between models is also considered. The models can also be used when one auxiliary variable is a measure of the effort expended in obtaining the sample.

Orbital electron capture by the nucleus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bambynek, W.; Behrens, H.; Chen, M. H.; Crasemann, B.; Fitzpatrick, M. L.; Ledingham, K. W. D.; Genz, H.; Mutterer, M.; Intemann, R. L.

1976-01-01

The theory of nuclear electron capture is reviewed in the light of current understanding of weak interactions. Experimental methods and results regarding capture probabilities, capture ratios, and EC/Beta(+) ratios are summarized. Radiative electron capture is discussed, including both theory and experiment. Atomic wave function overlap and electron exchange effects are covered, as are atomic transitions that accompany nuclear electron capture. Tables are provided to assist the reader in determining quantities of interest for specific cases.

Improving inferences from fisheries capture-recapture studies through remote detection of PIT tags

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Shively, Rip S.

2010-01-01

Models for capture-recapture data are commonly used in analyses of the dynamics of fish and wildlife populations, especially for estimating vital parameters such as survival. Capture-recapture methods provide more reliable inferences than other methods commonly used in fisheries studies. However, for rare or elusive fish species, parameter estimation is often hampered by small probabilities of re-encountering tagged fish when encounters are obtained through traditional sampling methods. We present a case study that demonstrates how remote antennas for passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags can increase encounter probabilities and the precision of survival estimates from capture-recapture models. Between 1999 and 2007, trammel nets were used to capture and tag over 8,400 endangered adult Lost River suckers (Deltistes luxatus) during the spawning season in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Despite intensive sampling at relatively discrete spawning areas, encounter probabilities from Cormack-Jolly-Seber models were consistently low (< 0.2) and the precision of apparent annual survival estimates was poor. Beginning in 2005, remote PIT tag antennas were deployed at known spawning locations to increase the probability of re-encountering tagged fish. We compare results based only on physical recaptures with results based on both physical recaptures and remote detections to demonstrate the substantial improvement in estimates of encounter probabilities (approaching 100%) and apparent annual survival provided by the remote detections. The richer encounter histories provided robust inferences about the dynamics of annual survival and have made it possible to explore more realistic models and hypotheses about factors affecting the conservation and recovery of this endangered species. Recent advances in technology related to PIT tags have paved the way for creative implementation of large-scale tagging studies in systems where they were previously considered impracticable.

Captures of Boll Weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in Relation to Trap Orientation and Distance From Brush Lines.

PubMed

Spurgeon, Dale W

2016-04-01

Eradication programs for the boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis grandis Boheman) rely on pheromone-baited traps to trigger insecticide treatments and monitor program progress. A key objective of monitoring in these programs is the timely detection of incipient weevil populations to limit or prevent re-infestation. Therefore, improvements in the effectiveness of trapping would enhance efforts to achieve and maintain eradication. Association of pheromone traps with woodlots and other prominent vegetation are reported to increase captures of weevils, but the spatial scale over which this effect occurs is unknown. The influences of trap distance (0, 10, and 20 m) and orientation (leeward or windward) to brush lines on boll weevil captures were examined during three noncropping seasons (October to February) in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Differences in numbers of captured weevils and in the probability of capture between traps at 10 or 20 m from brush, although often statistically significant, were generally small and variable. Variations in boll weevil population levels, wind directions, and wind speeds apparently contributed to this variability. In contrast, traps closely associated with brush (0 m) generally captured larger numbers of weevils, and offered a higher probability of weevil capture compared with traps away from brush. These increases in the probability of weevil capture were as high as 30%. Such increases in the ability of traps to detect low-level boll weevil populations indicate trap placement with respect to prominent vegetation is an important consideration in maximizing the effectiveness of trap-based monitoring for the boll weevil.

Survival Mediated Heavy Element Capture Cross Sections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loveland, Walter; Yao, Larry

2017-11-01

Formally, the cross section for producing a heavy evaporation residue, σEVR, in a fusion reaction can be written as where E is the center of mass energy, and T is the probability of the colliding nuclei to overcome the potential barrier in the entrance channel and reach the contact point. PCN is the probability that the projectile-target system will evolve from the contact point to the compound nucleus. Wsur is the probability that the compound nucleus will decay to produce an evaporation residue rather than fissioning. However, one must remember that the Wsur term effectively sets the allowed values of the spin, which in turn, restricts the values of the capture and fusion cross sections. We point out the implications of this fact for capture cross sections for heavy element formation reactions.

A goodness-of-fit test for capture-recapture model M(t) under closure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Burnham, K.P.

1999-01-01

A new, fully efficient goodness-of-fit test for the time-specific closed-population capture-recapture model M(t) is presented. This test is based on the residual distribution of the capture history data given the maximum likelihood parameter estimates under model M(t), is partitioned into informative components, and is based on chi-square statistics. Comparison of this test with Leslie's test (Leslie, 1958, Journal of Animal Ecology 27, 84- 86) for model M(t), using Monte Carlo simulations, shows the new test generally outperforms Leslie's test. The new test is frequently computable when Leslie's test is not, has Type I error rates that are closer to nominal error rates than Leslie's test, and is sensitive to behavioral variation and heterogeneity in capture probabilities. Leslie's test is not sensitive to behavioral variation in capture probabilities but, when computable, has greater power to detect heterogeneity than the new test.

Partitioning Detectability Components in Populations Subject to Within-Season Temporary Emigration Using Binomial Mixture Models

PubMed Central

O’Donnell, Katherine M.; Thompson, Frank R.; Semlitsch, Raymond D.

2015-01-01

Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model’s potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3–5 surveys each spring and fall 2010–2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling), while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling). By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and protocols that maximize species availability and conditional detection probability to increase population parameter estimate reliability. PMID:25775182

Landscape factors influencing the spatial distribution and abundance of mosquito vector Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) in a mixed residential-agricultural community in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiter, M.E.; Lapointe, D.A.

2007-01-01

Mosquito-borne avian diseases, principally avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum Grassi and Feletti) and avian pox (Avipoxvirus sp.) have been implicated as the key limiting factor associated with recent declines of endemic avifauna in the Hawaiian Island archipelago. We present data on the relative abundance, infection status, and spatial distribution of the primary mosquito vector Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae) across a mixed, residential-agricultural community adjacent to Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park on Hawai'i Island. We modeled the effect of agriculture and forest fragmentation in determining relative abundance of adult Cx. quinquefasciatus in Volcano Village, and we implement our statistical model in a geographic information system to generate a probability of mosquito capture prediction surface for the study area. Our model was based on biweekly captures of adult mosquitoes from 20 locations within Volcano Village from October 2001 to April 2003. We used mixed effects logistic regression to model the probability of capturing a mosquito, and we developed a set of 17 competing models a priori to specifically evaluate the effect of agriculture and fragmentation (i.e., residential landscapes) at two spatial scales. In total, 2,126 mosquitoes were captured in CO 2-baited traps with an average probability of 0.27 (SE = 0.10) of capturing one or more mosquitoes per trap night. Twelve percent of mosquitoes captured were infected with P. relictum. Our data indicate that agricultural lands and forest fragmentation significantly increase the probability of mosquito capture. The prediction surface identified areas along the Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park boundary that may have high relative abundance of the vector. Our data document the potential of avian malaria transmission in residential-agricultural landscapes and support the need for vector management that extends beyond reserve boundaries and considers a reserve's spatial position in a highly heterogeneous landscape.

Capture of shrinking targets with realistic shrink patterns.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Errol R; Chan, Alan H S; Dizmen, Coskun

2013-01-01

Previous research [Hoffmann, E. R. 2011. "Capture of Shrinking Targets." Ergonomics 54 (6): 519-530] reported experiments for capture of shrinking targets where the target decreased in size at a uniform rate. This work extended this research for targets having a shrink-size versus time pattern that of an aircraft receding from an observer. In Experiment 1, the time to capture the target in this case was well correlated in terms of Fitts' index of difficulty, measured at the time of capture of the target, a result that is in agreement with the 'balanced' model of Johnson and Hart [Johnson, W. W., and Hart, S. G. 1987. "Step Tracking Shrinking Targets." Proceedings of the human factors society 31st annual meeting, New York City, October 1987, 248-252]. Experiment 2 measured the probability of target capture for varying initial target sizes and target shrink rates constant, defined as the time for the target to shrink to half its initial size. Data of shrink time constant for 50% probability of capture were related to initial target size but did not greatly affect target capture as the rate of target shrinking decreased rapidly with time.

Analytical expressions for the closure probability of a stiff wormlike chain for finite capture radius.

PubMed

Guérin, T

2017-08-01

Estimating the probability that two monomers of the same polymer chain are close together is a key ingredient to characterize intramolecular reactions and polymer looping. In the case of stiff wormlike polymers (rigid fluctuating elastic rods), for which end-to-end encounters are rare events, we derive an explicit analytical formula for the probability η(r_{c}) that the distance between the chain extremities is smaller than some capture radius r_{c}. The formula is asymptotically exact in the limit of stiff chains, and it leads to the identification of two distinct scaling regimes for the closure factor, originating from a strong variation of the fluctuations of the chain orientation at closure. Our theory is compatible with existing analytical results from the literature that cover the cases of a vanishing capture radius and of nearly fully extended chains.

Calibrating perceived understanding and competency in probability concepts: A diagnosis of learning difficulties based on Rasch probabilistic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, Zamalia; Porter, Anne; Salikin, Masniyati; Ghani, Nor Azura Md

2015-12-01

Students' understanding of probability concepts have been investigated from various different perspectives. Competency on the other hand is often measured separately in the form of test structure. This study was set out to show that perceived understanding and competency can be calibrated and assessed together using Rasch measurement tools. Forty-four students from the STAT131 Understanding Uncertainty and Variation course at the University of Wollongong, NSW have volunteered to participate in the study. Rasch measurement which is based on a probabilistic model is used to calibrate the responses from two survey instruments and investigate the interactions between them. Data were captured from the e-learning platform Moodle where students provided their responses through an online quiz. The study shows that majority of the students perceived little understanding about conditional and independent events prior to learning about it but tend to demonstrate a slightly higher competency level afterward. Based on the Rasch map, there is indication of some increase in learning and knowledge about some probability concepts at the end of the two weeks lessons on probability concepts.

Defense Strategies for Asymmetric Networked Systems with Discrete Components.

PubMed

Rao, Nageswara S V; Ma, Chris Y T; Hausken, Kjell; He, Fei; Yau, David K Y; Zhuang, Jun

2018-05-03

We consider infrastructures consisting of a network of systems, each composed of discrete components. The network provides the vital connectivity between the systems and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. The individual components of the systems can be attacked by cyber and physical means and can be appropriately reinforced to withstand these attacks. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure performance as a game between an attacker and a provider, who choose the numbers of the components of the systems and network to attack and reinforce, respectively. The costs and benefits of attacks and reinforcements are characterized using the sum-form, product-form and composite utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a component cost term. We present a two-level characterization of the correlations within the infrastructure: (i) the aggregate failure correlation function specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network, and (ii) the survival probabilities of the systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations using multiplier functions. We derive Nash equilibrium conditions that provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities and also the expected infrastructure capacity specified by the total number of operational components. We apply these results to derive and analyze defense strategies for distributed cloud computing infrastructures using cyber-physical models.

Defense Strategies for Asymmetric Networked Systems with Discrete Components

PubMed Central

Rao, Nageswara S. V.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; Hausken, Kjell; He, Fei; Yau, David K. Y.

2018-01-01

We consider infrastructures consisting of a network of systems, each composed of discrete components. The network provides the vital connectivity between the systems and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. The individual components of the systems can be attacked by cyber and physical means and can be appropriately reinforced to withstand these attacks. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure performance as a game between an attacker and a provider, who choose the numbers of the components of the systems and network to attack and reinforce, respectively. The costs and benefits of attacks and reinforcements are characterized using the sum-form, product-form and composite utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a component cost term. We present a two-level characterization of the correlations within the infrastructure: (i) the aggregate failure correlation function specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network, and (ii) the survival probabilities of the systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations using multiplier functions. We derive Nash equilibrium conditions that provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities and also the expected infrastructure capacity specified by the total number of operational components. We apply these results to derive and analyze defense strategies for distributed cloud computing infrastructures using cyber-physical models. PMID:29751588

Probability Density Functions of the Solar Wind Driver of the Magnetopshere-Ionosphere System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, W.; Mays, M. L.

2007-12-01

The solar-wind driven magnetosphere-ionosphere system is a complex dynamical system in that it exhibits (1) sensitivity to initial conditions; (2) multiple space-time scales; (3) bifurcation sequences with hysteresis in transitions between attractors; and (4) noncompositionality. This system is modeled by WINDMI--a network of eight coupled ordinary differential equations which describe the transfer of power from the solar wind through the geomagnetic tail, the ionosphere, and ring current in the system. The model captures both storm activity from the plasma ring current energy, which yields a model Dst index result, and substorm activity from the region 1 field aligned current, yielding model AL and AU results. The input to the model is the solar wind driving voltage calculated from ACE solar wind parameter data, which has a regular coherent component and broad-band turbulent component. Cross correlation functions of the input-output data time series are computed and the conditional probability density function for the occurrence of substorms given earlier IMF conditions are derived. The model shows a high probability of substorms for solar activity that contains a coherent, rotating IMF with magnetic cloud features. For a theoretical model of the imprint of solar convection on the solar wind we have used the Lorenz attractor (Horton et al., PoP, 1999, doi:10.10631.873683) as a solar wind driver. The work is supported by NSF grant ATM-0638480.

Contribution of Proton Capture Reactions to the Ascertained Abundance of Fluorine in the Evolved Stars of Globular Cluster M4, M22, 47 Tuc and NGC 6397

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahanta, Upakul; Goswami, Aruna; Duorah, H. L.; Duorah, K.

2017-12-01

The origin of the abundance pattern and also the (anti)correlation present among the elements found in stars of globular clusters (GCs) remains unimproved until date. The proton-capture reactions are presently recognised in concert of the necessary candidates for that sort of observed behaviour in the second generation stars. We tend to propose a reaction network of a nuclear cycle namely carbon-nitrogen-oxygen-fluorine (CNOF) at evolved stellar condition since fluorine (^{19}F) is one such element which gets plagued by proton capture reactions. The stellar temperature thought about here ranges from 2× 107 to 10× 107 K and there has been an accretion occuring, with material density being 102 g/cm3 and 103 g/cm3. Such kind of temperature density conditions are probably going to be prevailing within the H-burning shell of evolved stars. The estimated abundances of ^{19}F are then matched with the info that has been determined for a few some metal-poor giants of GC M4, M22, 47 Tuc as well as NGC 6397. As far as the comparison between the observed and calculated abundances is concerned, it is found that the abundance of ^{19}F have shown an excellent agreement with the observed abundances with a correlation coefficent above 0.9, supporting the incidence of that nuclear cycle at the adopted temperature density conditions.

Monitoring Species of Concern Using Noninvasive Genetic Sampling and Capture-Recapture Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

ABBREVIATIONS AICc Akaike’s Information Criterion with small sample size correction AZGFD Arizona Game and Fish Department BMGR Barry M. Goldwater...MNKA Minimum Number Known Alive N Abundance Ne Effective Population Size NGS Noninvasive Genetic Sampling NGS-CR Noninvasive Genetic...parameter estimates from capture-recapture models require sufficient sample sizes , capture probabilities and low capture biases. For NGS-CR, sample

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models

PubMed Central

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal’s home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786–1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703–0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779–0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758–1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700–0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771–0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park’s population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions. PMID:26230262

Behavioral and reproductive effects of bird-borne data logger attachment on Brown Pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) on three temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamb, Juliet S.; Satgé, Yvan G.; Fiorello, Christine V.; Jodice, Patrick G. R.

2017-01-01

Although the use of bird-borne data loggers has become widespread in avian field research, the effects of capture and transmitter attachment on behavior and demographic rates are not often measured. Tag- and capture-induced effects on individual behavior, survival and reproduction may limit extrapolation of transmitter data to wider populations. However, measuring individual responses to capture and tagging is a necessary step in developing research techniques that minimize negative effects. We measured the short-term behavioral effects of handling and GPS transmitter attachment on Brown Pelicans under both captive and field conditions, and followed tagged individuals through a full breeding season to assess whether capture and transmitter attachment increased rates of nest abandonment or breeding failure. We observed slight increases in preening among tagged individuals 0–2 h after capture relative to controls that had not been captured or tagged, with a corresponding reduction in time spent resting. One to three days post-capture, nesting behavior of tagged pelicans resembled that of neighbors that had not been captured or tagged. Eighty-eight percent of tagged breeders remained at the same nest location for more than 48 h after capture, attending nests and chicks for an average of 49 days, and 51% were assumed to successfully fledge young. Breeding success was driven primarily by variation in location; however, sex and handling time also influenced the probability of successful breeding in tagged pelicans, suggesting that individual characteristics and the capture process itself can confound the effects of capture and transmitter attachment. We conclude that pelicans fitted with GPS transmitters exhibit comparable behaviors to untagged individuals within a day of capture and that GPS tracking is a viable technique for studying behavior and demography in this species. We also identify measures to minimize post-capture nest abandonment rates in tracking studies, including minimizing handling time and covering nests during processing.

Efficacy of trap modifications for increasing capture rates of aquatic snakes in floating aquatic funnel traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.

2013-01-01

Increasing detection and capture probabilities of rare or elusive herpetofauna of conservation concern is important to inform the scientific basis for their management and recovery. The Giant Gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is an example of a secretive, wary, and generally difficult-to-sample species about which little is known regarding its patterns of occurrence and demography. We therefore evaluated modifications to existing traps to increase the detection and capture probabilities of the Giant Gartersnake to improve the precision with which occurrence, abundance, survival, and other demographic parameters are estimated. We found that adding a one-way valve constructed of cable ties to the small funnel opening of traps and adding hardware cloth extensions to the wide end of funnels increased capture rates of the Giant Gartersnake by 5.55 times (95% credible interval = 2.45–10.51) relative to unmodified traps. The effectiveness of these modifications was insensitive to the aquatic habitat type in which they were deployed. The snout-vent length of the smallest and largest captured snakes did not vary among trap modifications. These trap modifications are expected to increase detection and capture probabilities of the Giant Gartersnake, and show promise for increasing the precision with which demographic parameters can be estimated for this species. We anticipate that the trap modifications found effective in this study will be applicable to a variety of aquatic and semi-aquatic reptiles and amphibians and improve conservation efforts for these species.

Analyzing wildfire exposure on Sardinia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A.; Alcasena, Fermin; Bacciu, Valentina; Duce, Pierpaolo; Munoz Lozano, Olga; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

We used simulation modeling based on the minimum travel time algorithm (MTT) to analyze wildfire exposure of key ecological, social and economic features on Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia is the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, and in the last fifty years experienced large and dramatic wildfires, which caused losses and threatened urban interfaces, forests and natural areas, and agricultural productions. Historical fires and environmental data for the period 1995-2009 were used as input to estimate fine scale burn probability, conditional flame length, and potential fire size in the study area. With this purpose, we simulated 100,000 wildfire events within the study area, randomly drawing from the observed frequency distribution of burn periods and wind directions for each fire. Estimates of burn probability, excluding non-burnable fuels, ranged from 0 to 1.92x10-3, with a mean value of 6.48x10-5. Overall, the outputs provided a quantitative assessment of wildfire exposure at the landscape scale and captured landscape properties of wildfire exposure. We then examined how the exposure profiles varied among and within selected features and assets located on the island. Spatial variation in modeled outputs resulted in a strong effect of fuel models, coupled with slope and weather. In particular, the combined effect of Mediterranean maquis, woodland areas and complex topography on flame length was relevant, mainly in north-east Sardinia, whereas areas with herbaceous fuels and flat areas were in general characterized by lower fire intensity but higher burn probability. The simulation modeling proposed in this work provides a quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management activities, and represents one of the first applications of burn probability modeling to capture fire risk and exposure profiles in the Mediterranean basin.

A Bayesian, combinatorial approach to capture-recapture.

PubMed

García-Pelayo, Ricardo

2006-11-01

It is shown that, in the capture-recapture method, the widely used formulae of Bailey or Chapman-Seber give the most likely value for the size of the population, but systematically underestimate the probability that the population is larger than any given size. We take here a first step in a combinatorial approach which does not suffer from this flaw: formulae are given which can be used in the closed case (no birth, death or migrations between captures) when at least two animals have been recaptured and when there is homogeneity with regard to capture probability. Numerical and heuristic evidence is presented pointing to the fact that the error incurred when using the formulae of Bailey or Chapman-Seber depends asymptotically only on the number of recaptured animals, and will not diminish if the number of captured animals becomes large while the number of recaptured animals remains constant. A result that was stated and left unproven by Darroch is proven here.

Understanding the basis of shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum) partial migration in the Gulf of Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Altenritter, Matthew E.; Zydlewski, Gayle B.; Kinnison, Michael T.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Wippelhauser, Gail S.

2018-01-01

Movement of shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum) among major river systems in the Gulf of Maine is common and has implications for the management of this endangered species. Directed movements of 61 telemetered individuals monitored between 2010 and 2013 were associated with the river of tagging and individual characteristics. While a small proportion of fish tagged in the Kennebec River moved to the Penobscot River (5%), a much higher proportion of fish tagged in the Penobscot River moved to the Kennebec River (66%), during probable spawning windows. This suggests that Penobscot River fish derive from a migratory contingent within a larger Kennebec River population. Despite this connectivity, fish captured in the Penobscot River were larger (∼100 mm fork length) and had higher condition factors (median Fulton’s K: 0.76) than those captured in the Kennebec River (median Fulton’s K: 0.61). Increased abundance and resource limitation in the Kennebec River may be constraining growth and promoting migration to the Penobscot River by individuals with sufficient initial size and condition. Migrants could experience an adaptive reproductive advantage relative to nonmigratory individuals.

Spatial capture--recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Royle, J Andrew; Chandler, Richard B; Gazenski, Kimberly D; Graves, Tabitha A

2013-02-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture--recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on "ecological distance," i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture-recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture-recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Testing the consistency of wildlife data types before combining them: the case of camera traps and telemetry.

PubMed

Popescu, Viorel D; Valpine, Perry; Sweitzer, Rick A

2014-04-01

Wildlife data gathered by different monitoring techniques are often combined to estimate animal density. However, methods to check whether different types of data provide consistent information (i.e., can information from one data type be used to predict responses in the other?) before combining them are lacking. We used generalized linear models and generalized linear mixed-effects models to relate camera trap probabilities for marked animals to independent space use from telemetry relocations using 2 years of data for fishers (Pekania pennanti) as a case study. We evaluated (1) camera trap efficacy by estimating how camera detection probabilities are related to nearby telemetry relocations and (2) whether home range utilization density estimated from telemetry data adequately predicts camera detection probabilities, which would indicate consistency of the two data types. The number of telemetry relocations within 250 and 500 m from camera traps predicted detection probability well. For the same number of relocations, females were more likely to be detected during the first year. During the second year, all fishers were more likely to be detected during the fall/winter season. Models predicting camera detection probability and photo counts solely from telemetry utilization density had the best or nearly best Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), suggesting that telemetry and camera traps provide consistent information on space use. Given the same utilization density, males were more likely to be photo-captured due to larger home ranges and higher movement rates. Although methods that combine data types (spatially explicit capture-recapture) make simple assumptions about home range shapes, it is reasonable to conclude that in our case, camera trap data do reflect space use in a manner consistent with telemetry data. However, differences between the 2 years of data suggest that camera efficacy is not fully consistent across ecological conditions and make the case for integrating other sources of space-use data.

Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter

2011-01-01

Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.

Nonlinearity and seasonal bias in an index of brushtail possum abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forsyth, D.M.; Link, W.A.; Webster, R.; Nugent, G.; Warburton, B.

2005-01-01

Introduced brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) are a widespread pest of conservation and agriculture in New Zealand, and considerable effort has been expended controlling populations to low densities. A national protocol for monitoring the abundance of possums, termed trap catch index (TCI), was adopted in 1996. The TCI requires that lines of leghold traps set at 20-m spacing are randomly located in a management area. The traps are set for 3 fine nights and checked daily, and possums are killed and traps reset. The TCI is the mean percentage of trap nights that possums were caught, corrected for sprung traps and nontarget captures, with trap line as the sampling unit. We studied I forest and I farmland area in the North Island, New Zealand, to address concerns that TCI estimates may not be readily comparable because of seasonal changes in the capture probability of possums. We located blocks of 6 trap lines at each area and randomly trapped I line in each block in 3 seasons (summer, winter, and spring) in 2000 and 2001. We developed a model to allow for variation in local population size and nightly capture probability, and fitted the model using the Bayesian analysis software BUGS. Capture probability declined with increasing abundance of possums, generating a nonlinear TCI. Capture probability in farmland was lower during spring relative to winter and summer, and to forest during summer. In the absence of a proven and cost-effective alternative, our results support the continued use of the TCI for monitoring the abundance of possums in New Zealand. Seasonal biases in the TCI should be minimized by conducting repeat sampling in the same season.

Multimodal transport and dispersion of organelles in narrow tubular cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogre, Saurabh S.; Koslover, Elena F.

2018-04-01

Intracellular components explore the cytoplasm via active motor-driven transport in conjunction with passive diffusion. We model the motion of organelles in narrow tubular cells using analytical techniques and numerical simulations to study the efficiency of different transport modes in achieving various cellular objectives. Our model describes length and time scales over which each transport mode dominates organelle motion, along with various metrics to quantify exploration of intracellular space. For organelles that search for a specific target, we obtain the average capture time for given transport parameters and show that diffusion and active motion contribute to target capture in the biologically relevant regime. Because many organelles have been found to tether to microtubules when not engaged in active motion, we study the interplay between immobilization due to tethering and increased probability of active transport. We derive parameter-dependent conditions under which tethering enhances long-range transport and improves the target capture time. These results shed light on the optimization of intracellular transport machinery and provide experimentally testable predictions for the effects of transport regulation mechanisms such as tethering.

A smooth mixture of Tobits model for healthcare expenditure.

PubMed

Keane, Michael; Stavrunova, Olena

2011-09-01

This paper develops a smooth mixture of Tobits (SMTobit) model for healthcare expenditure. The model is a generalization of the smoothly mixing regressions framework of Geweke and Keane (J Econometrics 2007; 138: 257-290) to the case of a Tobit-type limited dependent variable. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with data augmentation is developed to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model is applied to the US Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data on total medical expenditure. The results suggest that the model can capture the overall shape of the expenditure distribution very well, and also provide a good fit to a number of characteristics of the conditional (on covariates) distribution of expenditure, such as the conditional mean, variance and probability of extreme outcomes, as well as the 50th, 90th, and 95th, percentiles. We find that healthier individuals face an expenditure distribution with lower mean, variance and probability of extreme outcomes, compared with their counterparts in a worse state of health. Males have an expenditure distribution with higher mean, variance and probability of an extreme outcome, compared with their female counterparts. The results also suggest that heart and cardiovascular diseases affect the expenditure of males more than that of females. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating survival and breeding probability for pond-breeding amphibians: a modified robust design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Wilbur, H.M.

2004-01-01

Many studies of pond-breeding amphibians involve sampling individuals during migration to and from breeding habitats. Interpreting population processes and dynamics from these studies is difficult because (1) only a proportion of the population is observable each season, while an unknown proportion remains unobservable (e.g., non-breeding adults) and (2) not all observable animals are captured. Imperfect capture probability can be easily accommodated in capture?recapture models, but temporary transitions between observable and unobservable states, often referred to as temporary emigration, is known to cause problems in both open- and closed-population models. We develop a multistate mark?recapture (MSMR) model, using an open-robust design that permits one entry and one exit from the study area per season. Our method extends previous temporary emigration models (MSMR with an unobservable state) in two ways. First, we relax the assumption of demographic closure (no mortality) between consecutive (secondary) samples, allowing estimation of within-pond survival. Also, we add the flexibility to express survival probability of unobservable individuals (e.g., ?non-breeders?) as a function of the survival probability of observable animals while in the same, terrestrial habitat. This allows for potentially different annual survival probabilities for observable and unobservable animals. We apply our model to a relictual population of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). Despite small sample sizes, demographic parameters were estimated with reasonable precision. We tested several a priori biological hypotheses and found evidence for seasonal differences in pond survival. Our methods could be applied to a variety of pond-breeding species and other taxa where individuals are captured entering or exiting a common area (e.g., spawning or roosting area, hibernacula).

Automated cloud classification using a ground based infra-red camera and texture analysis techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rumi, Emal; Kerr, David; Coupland, Jeremy M.; Sandford, Andrew P.; Brettle, Mike J.

2013-10-01

Clouds play an important role in influencing the dynamics of local and global weather and climate conditions. Continuous monitoring of clouds is vital for weather forecasting and for air-traffic control. Convective clouds such as Towering Cumulus (TCU) and Cumulonimbus clouds (CB) are associated with thunderstorms, turbulence and atmospheric instability. Human observers periodically report the presence of CB and TCU clouds during operational hours at airports and observatories; however such observations are expensive and time limited. Robust, automatic classification of cloud type using infrared ground-based instrumentation offers the advantage of continuous, real-time (24/7) data capture and the representation of cloud structure in the form of a thermal map, which can greatly help to characterise certain cloud formations. The work presented here utilised a ground based infrared (8-14 μm) imaging device mounted on a pan/tilt unit for capturing high spatial resolution sky images. These images were processed to extract 45 separate textural features using statistical and spatial frequency based analytical techniques. These features were used to train a weighted k-nearest neighbour (KNN) classifier in order to determine cloud type. Ground truth data were obtained by inspection of images captured simultaneously from a visible wavelength colour camera at the same installation, with approximately the same field of view as the infrared device. These images were classified by a trained cloud observer. Results from the KNN classifier gave an encouraging success rate. A Probability of Detection (POD) of up to 90% with a Probability of False Alarm (POFA) as low as 16% was achieved.

Damage evaluation by a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, Hanfei; Yuan, Shenfang; Qiu, Lei; Zhang, Jinjin

2016-02-01

Guided wave based structural health monitoring has shown great potential in aerospace applications. However, one of the key challenges of practical engineering applications is the accurate interpretation of the guided wave signals under time-varying environmental and operational conditions. This paper presents a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method to improve the damage evaluation reliability of real aircraft structures under time-varying conditions. In the proposed approach, an HMM based unweighted moving average trend estimation method, which can capture the trend of damage propagation from the posterior probability obtained by HMM modeling is used to achieve a probabilistic evaluation of the structural damage. To validate the developed method, experiments are performed on a hole-edge crack specimen under fatigue loading condition and a real aircraft wing spar under changing structural boundary conditions. Experimental results show the advantage of the proposed method.

Active dispersal of Triatoma infestans and other triatomines in the Argentinean arid Chaco before and after vector control interventions.

PubMed

Abrahan, Luciana; Gorla, David; Catalá, Silvia

2016-06-01

Peridomestic structures are considered the main sites where Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) remain and disperse, representing the first risk factor for intradomestic invasion, even after vector control activities. This study analyzed T. infestans dispersal during vector control interventions in six rural houses of the arid Chaco (La Rioja, Argentina). Flying and walking dispersers were captured during five months of two consecutive warm seasons after insecticide spraying of intra- and peridomiciles. These data were compared with previous published data in the same scenario but without insecticide spraying in peridomiciles. Recorded climatic conditions were favorable for active dispersion during the study. Total number of T. infestans dispersers moving among domestic habitats decreased after insecticide spraying. Sylvatic triatomines T. guasayana, T. eratyrusiformis, T. garciabesi, and T. platensis, not targeted by insecticide spraying, were captured simultaneously within peridomestic areas and showed higher invasion pressure than T. infestans. Adult T. infestans peridomestic populations showed high nutritional status, indicating low dispersion probability. Some peridomiciles remained infested at the end of the study. However, no intradomiciles were recolonized. These results suggest that there is a low probability of intradomestic recolonization by active dispersion from peridomiciles during 15 months post-spraying. © 2016 The Society for Vector Ecology.

75 FR 53925 - Sea Turtle Conservation; Shrimp and Summer Flounder Trawling Requirements

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-02

... because of the statistical probability the candidate TED may not achieve the standard (i.e., control TED... the test with 4 turtle captures because of the statistical probability the candidate TED may not... because of the statistical probability the candidate TED may not achieve the standard (i.e., [[Page 53930...

Pattern recognition for passive polarimetric data using nonparametric classifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thilak, Vimal; Saini, Jatinder; Voelz, David G.; Creusere, Charles D.

2005-08-01

Passive polarization based imaging is a useful tool in computer vision and pattern recognition. A passive polarization imaging system forms a polarimetric image from the reflection of ambient light that contains useful information for computer vision tasks such as object detection (classification) and recognition. Applications of polarization based pattern recognition include material classification and automatic shape recognition. In this paper, we present two target detection algorithms for images captured by a passive polarimetric imaging system. The proposed detection algorithms are based on Bayesian decision theory. In these approaches, an object can belong to one of any given number classes and classification involves making decisions that minimize the average probability of making incorrect decisions. This minimum is achieved by assigning an object to the class that maximizes the a posteriori probability. Computing a posteriori probabilities requires estimates of class conditional probability density functions (likelihoods) and prior probabilities. A Probabilistic neural network (PNN), which is a nonparametric method that can compute Bayes optimal boundaries, and a -nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier, is used for density estimation and classification. The proposed algorithms are applied to polarimetric image data gathered in the laboratory with a liquid crystal-based system. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of the above algorithms for target detection from polarimetric data.

The effects of water depth on prey detection and capture by juvenile coho salmon and steelhead

Treesearch

J.J. Piccolo; N.F. Hughes; M.D. Bryant

2007-01-01

We used three-dimensional video analysis of feeding experiments to determine the effects of water depth on prey detection and capture by drift-feeding juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and steelhead (0. mykiss irideus). Depth treatments were 0.15, 0.30, 0.45 and 0.60 m. Mean prey capture probabilities for both species...

Non-random temporary emigration and the robust design: Conditions for bias at the end of a time series: Section VIII

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, Catherine A.

2008-01-01

Knowing the extent and magnitude of the potential bias can help in making decisions as to what time frame provides the best estimates or the most reliable opportunity to model and test hypotheses about factors affecting survival probability. To assess bias, truncating the capture histories to shorter time frames and reanalyzing the data to compare time-specific estimates may help identify spurious effects. Running simulations that mimic the parameter values and movement conditions in the real situation can provide estimates of standardized bias that can be used to identify those annual estimates that are biased to the point where the 95% confidence intervals are inadequate in describing the uncertainty of the estimates.

Modeling take-over performance in level 3 conditionally automated vehicles.

PubMed

Gold, Christian; Happee, Riender; Bengler, Klaus

2018-07-01

Taking over vehicle control from a Level 3 conditionally automated vehicle can be a demanding task for a driver. The take-over determines the controllability of automated vehicle functions and thereby also traffic safety. This paper presents models predicting the main take-over performance variables take-over time, minimum time-to-collision, brake application and crash probability. These variables are considered in relation to the situational and driver-related factors time-budget, traffic density, non-driving-related task, repetition, the current lane and driver's age. Regression models were developed using 753 take-over situations recorded in a series of driving simulator experiments. The models were validated with data from five other driving simulator experiments of mostly unrelated authors with another 729 take-over situations. The models accurately captured take-over time, time-to-collision and crash probability, and moderately predicted the brake application. Especially the time-budget, traffic density and the repetition strongly influenced the take-over performance, while the non-driving-related tasks, the lane and drivers' age explained a minor portion of the variance in the take-over performances. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival and selection of migrating salmon from capture-recapture models with individual traits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zabel, R.W.; Wagner, T.; Congleton, J.L.; Smith, S.G.; Williams, J.G.

2005-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are powerful tools for studying animal population dynamics, providing information on population abundance, survival rates, population growth rates, and selection for phenotypic traits. In these studies, the probability of observing a tagged individual reflects both the probability of the individual surviving to the time of recapture and the probability of recapturing an animal, given that it is alive. If both of these probabilities are related to the same phenotypic trait, it can be difficult to distinguish effects on survival probabilities from effects on recapture probabilities. However, when animals are individually tagged and have multiple opportunities for recapture, we can properly partition observed trait-related variability into survival and recapture components. We present an overview of capture-recapture models that incorporate individual variability and develop methods to incorporate results from these models into estimates of population survival and selection for phenotypic traits. We conducted a series of simulations to understand the performance of these estimators and to assess the consequences of ignoring individual variability when it exists. In addition, we analyzed a large data set of > 153 000 juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) of known length that were PIT-tagged during their seaward migration. Both our simulations and the case study indicated that the ability to precisely estimate selection for phenotypic traits was greatly compromised when differential recapture probabilities were ignored. Estimates of population survival, however, were far more robust. In the chinook salmon and steelhead study, we consistently found that smaller fish had a greater probability of recapture. We also uncovered length-related survival relationships in over half of the release group/river segment combinations that we observed, but we found both positive and negative relationships between length and survival probability. These results have important implications for the management of salmonid populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Kendall, W L; Bjorkland, R

2001-12-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Bjorkland, R.

2001-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Desimone, Richard; Schwartz, Michael K.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Pilgrim, Kristy P.; Mckelvey, Kevin S.

2012-01-01

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km2) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km2 (95% Cl 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% Cl 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and distance x sex on detection probability). These numbers translate to a total estimate of 293 mountain lions (95% Cl 182–451) to 529 (95% Cl 245–870) within the Blackfoot drainage. Results from the distance model are similar to previous estimates of 3.6 mountain lions/100 km2 for the study area; however, results from all other models indicated greater numbers of mountain lions. Our results indicate that unstructured spatial sampling combined with spatial capture–recapture analysis can be an effective method for estimating large carnivore densities.

Monte Carlo based protocol for cell survival and tumour control probability in BNCT.

PubMed

Ye, S J

1999-02-01

A mathematical model to calculate the theoretical cell survival probability (nominally, the cell survival fraction) is developed to evaluate preclinical treatment conditions for boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT). A treatment condition is characterized by the neutron beam spectra, single or bilateral exposure, and the choice of boron carrier drug (boronophenylalanine (BPA) or boron sulfhydryl hydride (BSH)). The cell survival probability defined from Poisson statistics is expressed with the cell-killing yield, the 10B(n,alpha)7Li reaction density, and the tolerable neutron fluence. The radiation transport calculation from the neutron source to tumours is carried out using Monte Carlo methods: (i) reactor-based BNCT facility modelling to yield the neutron beam library at an irradiation port; (ii) dosimetry to limit the neutron fluence below a tolerance dose (10.5 Gy-Eq); (iii) calculation of the 10B(n,alpha)7Li reaction density in tumours. A shallow surface tumour could be effectively treated by single exposure producing an average cell survival probability of 10(-3)-10(-5) for probable ranges of the cell-killing yield for the two drugs, while a deep tumour will require bilateral exposure to achieve comparable cell kills at depth. With very pure epithermal beams eliminating thermal, low epithermal and fast neutrons, the cell survival can be decreased by factors of 2-10 compared with the unmodified neutron spectrum. A dominant effect of cell-killing yield on tumour cell survival demonstrates the importance of choice of boron carrier drug. However, these calculations do not indicate an unambiguous preference for one drug, due to the large overlap of tumour cell survival in the probable ranges of the cell-killing yield for the two drugs. The cell survival value averaged over a bulky tumour volume is used to predict the overall BNCT therapeutic efficacy, using a simple model of tumour control probability (TCP).

Capture-Recapture Estimators in Epidemiology with Applications to Pertussis and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Surveillance

PubMed Central

Braeye, Toon; Verheagen, Jan; Mignon, Annick; Flipse, Wim; Pierard, Denis; Huygen, Kris; Schirvel, Carole; Hens, Niel

2016-01-01

Introduction Surveillance networks are often not exhaustive nor completely complementary. In such situations, capture-recapture methods can be used for incidence estimation. The choice of estimator and their robustness with respect to the homogeneity and independence assumptions are however not well documented. Methods We investigated the performance of five different capture-recapture estimators in a simulation study. Eight different scenarios were used to detect and combine case-information. The scenarios increasingly violated assumptions of independence of samples and homogeneity of detection probabilities. Belgian datasets on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pertussis provided motivating examples. Results No estimator was unbiased in all scenarios. Performance of the parametric estimators depended on how much of the dependency and heterogeneity were correctly modelled. Model building was limited by parameter estimability, availability of additional information (e.g. covariates) and the possibilities inherent to the method. In the most complex scenario, methods that allowed for detection probabilities conditional on previous detections estimated the total population size within a 20–30% error-range. Parametric estimators remained stable if individual data sources lost up to 50% of their data. The investigated non-parametric methods were more susceptible to data loss and their performance was linked to the dependence between samples; overestimating in scenarios with little dependence, underestimating in others. Issues with parameter estimability made it impossible to model all suggested relations between samples for the IPD and pertussis datasets. For IPD, the estimates for the Belgian incidence for cases aged 50 years and older ranged from 44 to58/100,000 in 2010. The estimates for pertussis (all ages, Belgium, 2014) ranged from 24.2 to30.8/100,000. Conclusion We encourage the use of capture-recapture methods, but epidemiologists should preferably include datasets for which the underlying dependency structure is not too complex, a priori investigate this structure, compensate for it within the model and interpret the results with the remaining unmodelled heterogeneity in mind. PMID:27529167

Overwinter survival of neotropical migratory birds in early successional and mature tropical forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conway, C.J.; Powell, G.V.N.; Nichols, J.D.

1995-01-01

Many Neotropical migratory species inhabit both mature and early successional forest on their wintering grounds, yet comparisons of survival rates between habitats are lacking. Consequently, the factors affecting habitat suitability for Neotropical migrants and the potential effects of tropical deforestation on migrants are not well understood. We estimated over-winter survival and capture probabilities of Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus), Hooded Warbler (Wilsonia citrina), and Kentucky Warbler (Oporomis formosus) inhabiting two common tropical habitat types, mature and early-successional forest. Our results suggest that large differences (for example, ratio of survival rates (gamma) < 0.85) in overwinter survival between these habitats do not exist for any of these species. Age ratios did not differ between habitats, but males were more common in forest habitats and females more common in successional habitats for Hooded Warblers and Kentucky Warblers. Future research on overwinter survival should address the need for age- and sex-specific survival estimates before we can draw strong conclusions regarding winter habitat suitability. Our estimates of over-winter survival extrapolated to annual survival rates that were generally lower than previous estimates of annual survival of migratory birds. Capture probability differed between habitats for Kentucky Warblers, but our results provide strong evidence against large differences in capture probability between habitats for Wood Thrush, Hooded Warblers, and Ovenbirds. We found no temporal or among site differences in survival or capture probability for any of the four species. Additional research is needed to examine the effects of winter habitat use on survival during migration and between-winter survival.

Coffee Agroforests Remain Beneficial for Neotropical Bird Community Conservation across Seasons

PubMed Central

Peters, Valerie E.; Cooper, Robert J.; Carroll, C. Ron

2013-01-01

Coffee agroforestry systems and secondary forests have been shown to support similar bird communities but comparing these habitat types are challenged by potential biases due to differences in detectability between habitats. Furthermore, seasonal dynamics may influence bird communities differently in different habitat types and therefore seasonal effects should be considered in comparisons. To address these issues, we incorporated seasonal effects and factors potentially affecting bird detectability into models to compare avian community composition and dynamics between coffee agroforests and secondary forest fragments. In particular, we modeled community composition and community dynamics of bird functional groups based on habitat type (coffee agroforest vs. secondary forest) and season while accounting for variation in capture probability (i.e. detectability). The models we used estimated capture probability to be similar between habitat types for each dietary guild, but omnivores had a lower capture probability than frugivores and insectivores. Although apparent species richness was higher in coffee agroforest than secondary forest, model results indicated that omnivores and insectivores were more common in secondary forest when accounting for heterogeneity in capture probability. Our results largely support the notion that shade-coffee can serve as a surrogate habitat for secondary forest with respect to avian communities. Small coffee agroforests embedded within the typical tropical countryside matrix of secondary forest patches and small-scale agriculture, therefore, may host avian communities that resemble those of surrounding secondary forest, and may serve as viable corridors linking patches of forest within these landscapes. This information is an important step toward effective landscape-scale conservation in Neotropical agricultural landscapes. PMID:24058437

Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2002-01-01

Temporary emigration was identified some time ago as causing potential problems in capture-recapture studies, and in the last five years approaches have been developed for dealing with special cases of this general problem. Temporary emigration can be viewed more generally as involving transitions to and from an unobservable state, and frequently the state itself is one of biological interest (e.g., 'nonbreeder'). Development of models that permit estimation of relevant parameters in the presence of an unobservable state requires either extra information (e.g., as supplied by Pollock's robust design) or the following classes of model constraints: reducing the order of Markovian transition probabilities, imposing a degree of determinism on transition probabilities, removing state specificity of survival probabilities, and imposing temporal constancy of parameters. The objective of the work described in this paper is to investigate estimability of model parameters under a variety of models that include an unobservable state. Beginning with a very general model and no extra information, we used numerical methods to systematically investigate the use of ancillary information and constraints to yield models that are useful for estimation. The result is a catalog of models for which estimation is possible. An example analysis of sea turtle capture-recapture data under two different models showed similar point estimates but increased precision for the model that incorporated ancillary data (the robust design) when compared to the model with deterministic transitions only. This comparison and the results of our numerical investigation of model structures lead to design suggestions for capture-recapture studies in the presence of an unobservable state.

Naturalistic drive cycle synthesis for pickup trucks.

PubMed

Liu, Zifan; Ivanco, Andrej; Filipi, Zoran

2015-09-01

Future pick-up trucks are meeting much stricter fuel economy and exhaust emission standards. Design tradeoffs will have to be carefully evaluated to satisfy consumer expectations within the regulatory and cost constraints. Boundary conditions will obviously be critical for decision making: thus, the understanding of how customers are driving in naturalistic settings is indispensable. Federal driving schedules, while critical for certification, do not capture the richness of naturalistic cycles, particularly the aggressive maneuvers that often shape consumer perception of performance. While there are databases with large number of drive cycles, applying all of them directly in the design process is impractical. Therefore, representative drive cycles that capture the essence of the naturalistic driving should be synthesized from naturalistic driving data. Naturalistic drive cycles are firstly categorized by investigating their micro-trip components, defined as driving activities between successive stops. Micro-trips are expected to characterize underlying local traffic conditions, and separate different driving patterns. Next, the transitions from one vehicle state to another vehicle state in each cycle category are captured with Transition Probability Matrix (TPM). Candidate drive cycles can subsequently be synthesized using Markov Chain based on TPMs for each category. Finally, representative synthetic drive cycles are selected through assessment of significant cycle metrics to identify the ones with smallest errors. This paper provides a framework for synthesis of representative drive cycles from naturalistic driving data, which can subsequently be used for efficient optimization of design or control of pick-up truck powertrains. Manufacturers will benefit from representative drive cycles in several aspects, including quick assessments of vehicle performance and energy consumption in simulations, component sizing and design, optimization of control strategies, and vehicle testing under real-world conditions. This is in contrast to using federal certification test cycles, which were never intended to capture pickup truck segment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Car-Following Model for Explaining Nonlinear Traffic Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Jianping; Song, Tao; Dong, Liyun; Dai, Shiqiang

There is a common time parameter for representing the sensitivity or the lag (response) time of drivers in many car-following models. In the viewpoint of traffic psychology, this parameter could be considered as the perception-response time (PRT). Generally, this parameter is set to be a constant in previous models. However, PRT is actually not a constant but a random variable described by the lognormal distribution. Thus the probability can be naturally introduced into car-following models by recovering the probability of PRT. For demonstrating this idea, a specific stochastic model is constructed based on the optimal velocity model. By conducting simulations under periodic boundary conditions, it is found that some important traffic phenomena, such as the hysteresis and phantom traffic jams phenomena, can be reproduced more realistically. Especially, an interesting experimental feature of traffic jams, i.e., two moving jams propagating in parallel with constant speed stably and sustainably, is successfully captured by the present model.

The use of a robust capture-recapture design in small mammal population studies: A field example with Microtus pennsylvanicus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hines, James E.

1984-01-01

The robust design of Pollock (1982) was used to estimate parameters of a Maryland M. pennsylvanicus population. Closed model tests provided strong evidence of heterogeneity of capture probability, and model M eta (Otis et al., 1978) was selected as the most appropriate model for estimating population size. The Jolly-Seber model goodness-of-fit test indicated rejection of the model for this data set, and the M eta estimates of population size were all higher than the Jolly-Seber estimates. Both of these results are consistent with the evidence of heterogeneous capture probabilities. The authors thus used M eta estimates of population size, Jolly-Seber estimates of survival rate, and estimates of birth-immigration based on a combination of the population size and survival rate estimates. Advantages of the robust design estimates for certain inference procedures are discussed, and the design is recommended for future small mammal capture-recapture studies directed at estimation.

Urban stormwater capture curve using three-parameter mixed exponential probability density function and NRCS runoff curve number method.

PubMed

Kim, Sangdan; Han, Suhee

2010-01-01

Most related literature regarding designing urban non-point-source management systems assumes that precipitation event-depths follow the 1-parameter exponential probability density function to reduce the mathematical complexity of the derivation process. However, the method of expressing the rainfall is the most important factor for analyzing stormwater; thus, a better mathematical expression, which represents the probability distribution of rainfall depths, is suggested in this study. Also, the rainfall-runoff calculation procedure required for deriving a stormwater-capture curve is altered by the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service (Washington, D.C.) (NRCS) runoff curve number method to consider the nonlinearity of the rainfall-runoff relation and, at the same time, obtain a more verifiable and representative curve for design when applying it to urban drainage areas with complicated land-use characteristics, such as occurs in Korea. The result of developing the stormwater-capture curve from the rainfall data in Busan, Korea, confirms that the methodology suggested in this study provides a better solution than the pre-existing one.

Design knowledge capture for the space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crouse, K. R.; Wechsler, D. B.

1987-01-01

The benefits of design knowledge availability are identifiable and pervasive. The implementation of design knowledge capture and storage using current technology increases the probability for success, while providing for a degree of access compatibility with future applications. The space station design definition should be expanded to include design knowledge. Design knowledge should be captured. A critical timing relationship exists between the space station development program, and the implementation of this project.

Sandpile-based model for capturing magnitude distributions and spatiotemporal clustering and separation in regional earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batac, Rene C.; Paguirigan, Antonino A., Jr.; Tarun, Anjali B.; Longjas, Anthony G.

2017-04-01

We propose a cellular automata model for earthquake occurrences patterned after the sandpile model of self-organized criticality (SOC). By incorporating a single parameter describing the probability to target the most susceptible site, the model successfully reproduces the statistical signatures of seismicity. The energy distributions closely follow power-law probability density functions (PDFs) with a scaling exponent of around -1. 6, consistent with the expectations of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law, for a wide range of the targeted triggering probability values. Additionally, for targeted triggering probabilities within the range 0.004-0.007, we observe spatiotemporal distributions that show bimodal behavior, which is not observed previously for the original sandpile. For this critical range of values for the probability, model statistics show remarkable comparison with long-period empirical data from earthquakes from different seismogenic regions. The proposed model has key advantages, the foremost of which is the fact that it simultaneously captures the energy, space, and time statistics of earthquakes by just introducing a single parameter, while introducing minimal parameters in the simple rules of the sandpile. We believe that the critical targeting probability parameterizes the memory that is inherently present in earthquake-generating regions.

Disability Weight of Clonorchis sinensis Infection: Captured from Community Study and Model Simulation

PubMed Central

Qian, Men-Bao; Chen, Ying-Dan; Fang, Yue-Yi; Xu, Long-Qi; Zhu, Ting-Jun; Tan, Tan; Zhou, Chang-Hai; Wang, Guo-Fei; Jia, Tie-Wu; Yang, Guo-Jing; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2011-01-01

Background Clonorchiasis is among the most neglected tropical diseases. It is caused by ingesting raw or undercooked fish or shrimp containing the larval of Clonorchis sinensis and mainly endemic in Southeast Asia including China, Korea and Vietnam. The global estimations for population at risk and infected are 601 million and 35 million, respectively. However, it is still not listed among the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and no disability weight is available for it. Disability weight reflects the average degree of loss of life value due to certain chronic disease condition and ranges between 0 (complete health) and 1 (death). It is crucial parameter for calculating the morbidity part of any disease burden in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Methodology/Principal Findings According to the probability and disability weight of single sequelae caused by C. sinensis infection, the overall disability weight could be captured through Monte Carlo simulation. The probability of single sequelae was gained from one community investigation, while the corresponding disability weight was searched from the literatures in evidence-based approach. The overall disability weights of the male and female were 0.101 and 0.050, respectively. The overall disability weights of the age group of 5–14, 15–29, 30–44, 45–59 and 60+ were 0.022, 0.052, 0.072, 0.094 and 0.118, respectively. There was some evidence showing that the disability weight and geometric mean of eggs per gram of feces (GMEPG) fitted a logarithmic equation. Conclusion/Significance The overall disability weights of C. sinensis infection are differential in different sex and age groups. The disability weight captured here may be referred for estimating the disease burden of C. sinensis infection. PMID:22180791

Size-sex variation in survival rates and abundance of pig frogs, Rana grylio, in northern Florida wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, K.V.; Nichols, J.D.; Percival, H.F.; Hines, J.E.

1998-01-01

During 1991-1993, we conducted capture-recapture studies on pig frogs, Rana grylio, in seven study locations in northcentral Florida. Resulting data were used to test hypotheses about variation in survival probability over different size-sex classes of pig frogs. We developed multistate capture-recapture models for the resulting data and used them to estimate survival rates and frog abundance. Tests provided strong evidence of survival differences among size-sex classes, with adult females showing the highest survival probabilities. Adult males and juvenile frogs had lower survival rates that were similar to each other. Adult females were more abundant than adult males in most locations at most sampling occasions. We recommended probabilistic capture-recapture models in general, and multistate models in particular, for robust estimation of demographic parameters in amphibian populations.

Using multilevel spatial models to understand salamander site occupancy patterns after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chelgren, Nathan; Adams, Michael J.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Bury, R. Bruce

2011-01-01

Studies of the distribution of elusive forest wildlife have suffered from the confounding of true presence with the uncertainty of detection. Occupancy modeling, which incorporates probabilities of species detection conditional on presence, is an emerging approach for reducing observation bias. However, the current likelihood modeling framework is restrictive for handling unexplained sources of variation in the response that may occur when there are dependence structures such as smaller sampling units that are nested within larger sampling units. We used multilevel Bayesian occupancy modeling to handle dependence structures and to partition sources of variation in occupancy of sites by terrestrial salamanders (family Plethodontidae) within and surrounding an earlier wildfire in western Oregon, USA. Comparison of model fit favored a spatial N-mixture model that accounted for variation in salamander abundance over models that were based on binary detection/non-detection data. Though catch per unit effort was higher in burned areas than unburned, there was strong support that this pattern was due to a higher probability of capture for individuals in burned plots. Within the burn, the odds of capturing an individual given it was present were 2.06 times the odds outside the burn, reflecting reduced complexity of ground cover in the burn. There was weak support that true occupancy was lower within the burned area. While the odds of occupancy in the burn were 0.49 times the odds outside the burn among the five species, the magnitude of variation attributed to the burn was small in comparison to variation attributed to other landscape variables and to unexplained, spatially autocorrelated random variation. While ordinary occupancy models may separate the biological pattern of interest from variation in detection probability when all sources of variation are known, the addition of random effects structures for unexplained sources of variation in occupancy and detection probability may often more appropriately represent levels of uncertainty. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall: Dependence of a random cascade generator on large-scale forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Over, Thomas, M.; Gupta, Vijay K.

1994-01-01

Under the theory of independent and identically distributed random cascades, the probability distribution of the cascade generator determines the spatial and the ensemble properties of spatial rainfall. Three sets of radar-derived rainfall data in space and time are analyzed to estimate the probability distribution of the generator. A detailed comparison between instantaneous scans of spatial rainfall and simulated cascades using the scaling properties of the marginal moments is carried out. This comparison highlights important similarities and differences between the data and the random cascade theory. Differences are quantified and measured for the three datasets. Evidence is presented to show that the scaling properties of the rainfall can be captured to the first order by a random cascade with a single parameter. The dependence of this parameter on forcing by the large-scale meteorological conditions, as measured by the large-scale spatial average rain rate, is investigated for these three datasets. The data show that this dependence can be captured by a one-to-one function. Since the large-scale average rain rate can be diagnosed from the large-scale dynamics, this relationship demonstrates an important linkage between the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and the statistical cascade theory of mesoscale rainfall. Potential application of this research to parameterization of runoff from the land surface and regional flood frequency analysis is briefly discussed, and open problems for further research are presented.

Camera trap placement and the potential for bias due to trails and other features

PubMed Central

Forrester, Tavis D.

2017-01-01

Camera trapping has become an increasingly widespread tool for wildlife ecologists, with large numbers of studies relying on photo capture rates or presence/absence information. It is increasingly clear that camera placement can directly impact this kind of data, yet these biases are poorly understood. We used a paired camera design to investigate the effect of small-scale habitat features on species richness estimates, and capture rate and detection probability of several mammal species in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, USA. Cameras were deployed at either log features or on game trails with a paired camera at a nearby random location. Overall capture rates were significantly higher at trail and log cameras compared to their paired random cameras, and some species showed capture rates as much as 9.7 times greater at feature-based cameras. We recorded more species at both log (17) and trail features (15) than at their paired control cameras (13 and 12 species, respectively), yet richness estimates were indistinguishable after 659 and 385 camera nights of survey effort, respectively. We detected significant increases (ranging from 11–33%) in detection probability for five species resulting from the presence of game trails. For six species detection probability was also influenced by the presence of a log feature. This bias was most pronounced for the three rodents investigated, where in all cases detection probability was substantially higher (24.9–38.2%) at log cameras. Our results indicate that small-scale factors, including the presence of game trails and other features, can have significant impacts on species detection when camera traps are employed. Significant biases may result if the presence and quality of these features are not documented and either incorporated into analytical procedures, or controlled for in study design. PMID:29045478

Camera trap placement and the potential for bias due to trails and other features.

PubMed

Kolowski, Joseph M; Forrester, Tavis D

2017-01-01

Camera trapping has become an increasingly widespread tool for wildlife ecologists, with large numbers of studies relying on photo capture rates or presence/absence information. It is increasingly clear that camera placement can directly impact this kind of data, yet these biases are poorly understood. We used a paired camera design to investigate the effect of small-scale habitat features on species richness estimates, and capture rate and detection probability of several mammal species in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, USA. Cameras were deployed at either log features or on game trails with a paired camera at a nearby random location. Overall capture rates were significantly higher at trail and log cameras compared to their paired random cameras, and some species showed capture rates as much as 9.7 times greater at feature-based cameras. We recorded more species at both log (17) and trail features (15) than at their paired control cameras (13 and 12 species, respectively), yet richness estimates were indistinguishable after 659 and 385 camera nights of survey effort, respectively. We detected significant increases (ranging from 11-33%) in detection probability for five species resulting from the presence of game trails. For six species detection probability was also influenced by the presence of a log feature. This bias was most pronounced for the three rodents investigated, where in all cases detection probability was substantially higher (24.9-38.2%) at log cameras. Our results indicate that small-scale factors, including the presence of game trails and other features, can have significant impacts on species detection when camera traps are employed. Significant biases may result if the presence and quality of these features are not documented and either incorporated into analytical procedures, or controlled for in study design.

Preliminary skyshine calculations for the Poloidal Diverter Tokamak Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nigg, D.W.; Wheeler, F.J.

1981-01-01

The Poloidal Diverter Experiment (PDX) facility at Princeton University is the first operating tokamak to require substantial radiation shielding. A calculational model has been developed to estimate the radiation dose in the PDX control room and at the site boundary due to the skyshine effect. An efficient one-dimensional method is used to compute the neutron and capture gamma leakage currents at the top surface of the PDX roof shield. This method employs an S /SUB n/ calculation in slab geometry and, for the PDX, is superior to spherical models found in the literature. If certain conditions are met, the slabmore » model provides the exact probability of leakage out the top surface of the roof for fusion source neutrons and for capture gamma rays produced in the PDX floor and roof shield. The model also provides the correct neutron and capture gamma leakage current spectra and angular distributions, averaged over the top roof shield surface. For the PDX, this method is nearly as accurate as multidimensional techniques for computing the roof leakage and is much less costly. The actual neutron skyshine dose is computed using a Monte Carlo model with the neutron source at the roof surface obtained from the slab S /SUB n/ calculation. The capture gamma dose is computed using a simple point-kernel single-scatter method.« less

The role of body size versus growth on the decision to migrate: a case study with Salmo trutta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acolas, M. L.; Labonne, J.; Baglinière, J. L.; Roussel, J. M.

2012-01-01

In a population exhibiting partial migration (i.e. migration and residency tactics occur in the same population), the mechanisms underlying the tactical choice are still unclear. Empirical studies have highlighted a variety of factors that could influence the coexistence of resident and migratory individuals, with growth and body size considered to be key factors in the decision to migrate. Most studies suffer from at least one of the two following caveats: (1) survival and capture probabilities are not taken into account in the data analysis, and (2) body size is often used as a proxy for individual growth. We performed a capture-mark-recapture experiment to study partial migration among juvenile brown trout Salmo trutta at the end of their first year, when a portion of the population emigrate from the natal stream while others choose residency tactic. Bayesian multistate capture-recapture models accounting for survival and recaptures probabilities were used to investigate the relative role of body size and individual growth on survival and migration probabilities. Our results show that, despite an apparent effect of both size and growth on migration, growth is the better integrative parameter and acts directly on migration probability whereas body size acts more strongly on survival. Consequently, we recommend caution if size is used as a proxy for growth when studying the factors that drive partial migration in juvenile salmonid species.

Towards saturation of the electron-capture delayed fission probability: The new isotopes 240Es and 236Bk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konki, J.; Khuyagbaatar, J.; Uusitalo, J.; Greenlees, P. T.; Auranen, K.; Badran, H.; Block, M.; Briselet, R.; Cox, D. M.; Dasgupta, M.; Di Nitto, A.; Düllmann, Ch. E.; Grahn, T.; Hauschild, K.; Herzán, A.; Herzberg, R.-D.; Heßberger, F. P.; Hinde, D. J.; Julin, R.; Juutinen, S.; Jäger, E.; Kindler, B.; Krier, J.; Leino, M.; Lommel, B.; Lopez-Martens, A.; Luong, D. H.; Mallaburn, M.; Nishio, K.; Pakarinen, J.; Papadakis, P.; Partanen, J.; Peura, P.; Rahkila, P.; Rezynkina, K.; Ruotsalainen, P.; Sandzelius, M.; Sarén, J.; Scholey, C.; Sorri, J.; Stolze, S.; Sulignano, B.; Theisen, Ch.; Ward, A.; Yakushev, A.; Yakusheva, V.

2017-01-01

The new neutron-deficient nuclei 240Es and 236Bk were synthesised at the gas-filled recoil separator RITU. They were identified by their radioactive decay chains starting from 240Es produced in the fusion-evaporation reaction 209Bi(34S,3n)240Es. Half-lives of 6 (2)s and 22-6+13s were obtained for 240Es and 236Bk, respectively. Two groups of α particles with energies Eα = 8.19 (3)MeV and 8.09 (3)MeV were unambiguously assigned to 240Es. Electron-capture delayed fission branches with probabilities of 0.16 (6) and 0.04 (2) were measured for 240Es and 236Bk, respectively. These new data show a continuation of the exponential increase of ECDF probabilities in more neutron-deficient isotopes.

Analysis of capture-recapture models with individual covariates using data augmentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2009-01-01

I consider the analysis of capture-recapture models with individual covariates that influence detection probability. Bayesian analysis of the joint likelihood is carried out using a flexible data augmentation scheme that facilitates analysis by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and a simple and straightforward implementation in freely available software. This approach is applied to a study of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) in which auxiliary data on a continuous covariate (body mass) are recorded, and it is thought that detection probability is related to body mass. In a second example, the model is applied to an aerial waterfowl survey in which a double-observer protocol is used. The fundamental unit of observation is the cluster of individual birds, and the size of the cluster (a discrete covariate) is used as a covariate on detection probability.

Examining the relationship between motor assessments and handwriting consistency in children with and without probable developmental coordination disorder.

PubMed

Bo, Jin; Colbert, Alison; Lee, Chi-Mei; Schaffert, Jeffrey; Oswald, Kaitlin; Neill, Rebecca

2014-09-01

Children with Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) often experience difficulties in handwriting. The current study examined the relationships between three motor assessments and the spatial and temporal consistency of handwriting. Twelve children with probable DCD and 29 children from 7 to 12 years who were typically developing wrote the lowercase letters "e" and "l" in cursive and printed forms repetitively on a digitizing tablet. Three behavioral assessments, including the Beery-Buktenica Developmental Test of Visual-Motor Integration (VMI), the Minnesota Handwriting Assessment (MHA) and the Movement Assessment Battery for Children (MABC), were administered. Children with probable DCD had low scores on the VMI, MABC and MHA and showed high temporal, not spatial, variability in the letter-writing task. Their MABC scores related to temporal consistency in all handwriting conditions, and the Legibility scores in their MHA correlated with temporal consistency in cursive "e" and printed "l". It appears that children with probable DCD have prominent difficulties on the temporal aspect of handwriting. While the MHA is a good product-oriented assessment for measuring handwriting deficits, the MABC shows promise as a good assessment for capturing the temporal process of handwriting in children with DCD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of capture techniques on lesser prairie-chicken trap injury and survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Mitchell, Natasia R.; Gicklhorn, Trevor S.; Borsdorf, Philip K.; Haukos, David A.; Dixon, Charles

2015-01-01

Ethical treatment of research animals is required under the Animal Welfare Act. This includes trapping methodologies that reduce unnecessary pain and duress. Traps used in research should optimize animal welfare conditions within the context of the proposed research study. Several trapping techniques are used in the study of lesser prairie-chickens, despite lack of knowledge of trap injury caused by the various methods. From 2006 to 2012, we captured 217, 40, and 144 lesser prairie-chickens Tympanuchus pallidicinctus using walk-in funnel traps, rocket nets, and drop nets, respectively, in New Mexico and Texas, to assess the effects of capture technique on injury and survival of the species. We monitored radiotagged, injured lesser prairie-chickens 7–65 d postcapture to assess survival rates of injured individuals. Injuries occurred disproportionately among trap type, injury type, and sex. The predominant injuries were superficial cuts to the extremities of males captured in walk-in funnel traps. However, we observed no mortalities due to trapping, postcapture survival rates of injured birds did not vary across trap types, and the daily survival probability of an injured and uninjured bird was ≥99%. Frequency and intensity of injuries in walk-in funnel traps are due to the passive nature of these traps (researcher cannot select specific individuals for capture) and incidental capture of individuals not needed for research. Comparatively, rocket nets and drop nets allow observers to target birds for capture and require immediate removal of captured individuals from the trap. Based on our results, trap injuries would be reduced if researchers monitor and immediately remove birds from walk-in funnels before they injure themselves; move traps to target specific birds and reduce recaptures; limit the number of consecutive trapping days on a lek; and use proper netting techniques that incorporate quick, efficient, trained handling procedures.

Modeling the Spatial Dynamics of International Tuna Fleets

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We developed an iterative sequential random utility model to investigate the social and environmental determinants of the spatiotemporal decision process of tuna purse-seine fishery fishing effort in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Operations of the fishing gear mark checkpoints in a continuous complex decision-making process. Individual fisher behavior is modeled by identifying diversified choices over decision-space for an entire fishing trip, which allows inclusion of prior and current vessel locations and conditions among the explanatory variables. Among these factors are vessel capacity; departure and arrival port; duration of the fishing trip; daily and cumulative distance travelled, which provides a proxy for operation costs; expected revenue; oceanographic conditions; and tons of fish on board. The model uses a two-step decision process to capture the probability of a vessel choosing a specific fishing region for the first set and the probability of switching to (or staying in) a specific region to fish before returning to its landing port. The model provides a means to anticipate the success of marine resource management, and it can be used to evaluate fleet diversity in fisher behavior, the impact of climate variability, and the stability and resilience of complex coupled human and natural systems. PMID:27537545

Computer program for prediction of capture maneuver probability for an on-off reaction controlled upper stage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knauber, R. N.

1982-01-01

A FORTRAN coded computer program which computes the capture transient of a launch vehicle upper stage at the ignition and/or separation event is presented. It is for a single degree-of-freedom on-off reaction jet attitude control system. The Monte Carlo method is used to determine the statistical value of key parameters at the outcome of the event. Aerodynamic and booster induced disturbances, vehicle and control system characteristics, and initial conditions are treated as random variables. By appropriate selection of input data pitch, yaw and roll axes can be analyzed. Transient response of a single deterministic case can be computed. The program is currently set up on a CDC CYBER 175 computer system but is compatible with ANSI FORTRAN computer language. This routine has been used over the past fifteen (15) years for the SCOUT Launch Vehicle and has been run on RECOMP III, IBM 7090, IBM 360/370, CDC6600 and CDC CYBER 175 computers with little modification.

Exact Time-Dependent Exchange-Correlation Potential in Electron Scattering Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yasumitsu; Lacombe, Lionel; Watanabe, Kazuyuki; Maitra, Neepa T.

2017-12-01

We identify peak and valley structures in the exact exchange-correlation potential of time-dependent density functional theory that are crucial for time-resolved electron scattering in a model one-dimensional system. These structures are completely missed by adiabatic approximations that, consequently, significantly underestimate the scattering probability. A recently proposed nonadiabatic approximation is shown to correctly capture the approach of the electron to the target when the initial Kohn-Sham state is chosen judiciously, and it is more accurate than standard adiabatic functionals but ultimately fails to accurately capture reflection. These results may explain the underestimation of scattering probabilities in some recent studies on molecules and surfaces.

Accretion Dynamics on Wet Granular Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saingier, Guillaume; Sauret, Alban; Jop, Pierre

2017-05-01

Wet granular aggregates are common precursors of construction materials, food, and health care products. The physical mechanisms involved in the mixing of dry grains with a wet substrate are not well understood and difficult to control. Here, we study experimentally the accretion of dry grains on a wet granular substrate by measuring the growth dynamics of the wet aggregate. We show that this aggregate is fully saturated and its cohesion is ensured by the capillary depression at the air-liquid interface. The growth dynamics is controlled by the liquid fraction at the surface of the aggregate and exhibits two regimes. In the viscous regime, the growth dynamics is limited by the capillary-driven flow of liquid through the granular packing to the surface of the aggregate. In the capture regime, the capture probability depends on the availability of the liquid at the saturated interface, which is controlled by the hydrostatic depression in the material. We propose a model that rationalizes our observations and captures both dynamics based on the evolution of the capture probability with the hydrostatic depression.

Investigations of potential bias in the estimation of lambda using Pradel's (1996) model for capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.

2002-01-01

Pradel's (1996) temporal symmetry model permitting direct estimation and modelling of population growth rate, u i , provides a potentially useful tool for the study of population dynamics using marked animals. Because of its recent publication date, the approach has not seen much use, and there have been virtually no investigations directed at robustness of the resulting estimators. Here we consider several potential sources of bias, all motivated by specific uses of this estimation approach. We consider sampling situations in which the study area expands with time and present an analytic expression for the bias in u i We next consider trap response in capture probabilities and heterogeneous capture probabilities and compute large-sample and simulation-based approximations of resulting bias in u i . These approximations indicate that trap response is an especially important assumption violation that can produce substantial bias. Finally, we consider losses on capture and emphasize the importance of selecting the estimator for u i that is appropriate to the question being addressed. For studies based on only sighting and resighting data, Pradel's (1996) u i ' is the appropriate estimator.

Temporal variability of local abundance, sex ratio and activity in the Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casula, P.; Nichols, J.D.

2003-01-01

When capturing and marking of individuals is possible, the application of newly developed capture-recapture models can remove several sources of bias in the estimation of population parameters such as local abundance and sex ratio. For example, observation of distorted sex ratios in counts or captures can reflect either different abundances of the sexes or different sex-specific capture probabilities, and capture-recapture models can help distinguish between these two possibilities. Robust design models and a model selection procedure based on information-theoretic methods were applied to study the local population structure of the endemic Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly, Polyommatus coridon gennargenti. Seasonal variations of abundance, plus daily and weather-related variations of active populations of males and females were investigated. Evidence was found of protandry and male pioneering of the breeding space. Temporary emigration probability, which describes the proportion of the population not exposed to capture (e.g. absent from the study area) during the sampling process, was estimated, differed between sexes, and was related to temperature, a factor known to influence animal activity. The correlation between temporary emigration and average daily temperature suggested interpreting temporary emigration as inactivity of animals. Robust design models were used successfully to provide a detailed description of the population structure and activity in this butterfly and are recommended for studies of local abundance and animal activity in the field.

Bogolon-mediated electron capture by impurities in hybrid Bose-Fermi systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boev, M. V.; Kovalev, V. M.; Savenko, I. G.

2018-04-01

We investigate the processes of electron capture by a Coulomb impurity center residing in a hybrid system consisting of spatially separated two-dimensional layers of electron and Bose-condensed dipolar exciton gases coupled via the Coulomb forces. We calculate the probability of the electron capture accompanied by the emission of a single Bogoliubov excitation (bogolon), similar to regular phonon-mediated scattering in solids. Furthermore, we study the electron capture mediated by the emission of a pair of bogolons in a single capture event and show that these processes not only should be treated in the same order of the perturbation theory, but also they give a more important contribution than single-bogolon-mediated capture, in contrast with regular phonon scattering.

Modelling detectability of kiore (Rattus exulans) on Aguiguan, Mariana Islands, to inform possible eradication and monitoring efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, A.A.Y.; Stanford, J.W.; Wiewel, A.S.; Rodda, G.H.

2011-01-01

Estimating the detection probability of introduced organisms during the pre-monitoring phase of an eradication effort can be extremely helpful in informing eradication and post-eradication monitoring efforts, but this step is rarely taken. We used data collected during 11 nights of mark-recapture sampling on Aguiguan, Mariana Islands, to estimate introduced kiore (Rattus exulans Peale) density and detection probability, and evaluated factors affecting detectability to help inform possible eradication efforts. Modelling of 62 captures of 48 individuals resulted in a model-averaged density estimate of 55 kiore/ha. Kiore detection probability was best explained by a model allowing neophobia to diminish linearly (i.e. capture probability increased linearly) until occasion 7, with additive effects of sex and cumulative rainfall over the prior 48 hours. Detection probability increased with increasing rainfall and females were up to three times more likely than males to be trapped. In this paper, we illustrate the type of information that can be obtained by modelling mark-recapture data collected during pre-eradication monitoring and discuss the potential of using these data to inform eradication and posteradication monitoring efforts. ?? New Zealand Ecological Society.

Challenges of DNA-based mark-recapture studies of American black bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Settlage, K.E.; Van Manen, F.T.; Clark, J.D.; King, T.L.

2008-01-01

We explored whether genetic sampling would be feasible to provide a region-wide population estimate for American black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachians, USA. Specifically, we determined whether adequate capture probabilities (p >0.20) and population estimates with a low coefficient of variation (CV <20%) could be achieved given typical agency budget and personnel constraints. We extracted DNA from hair collected from baited barbed-wire enclosures sampled over a 10-week period on 2 study areas: a high-density black bear population in a portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park and a lower density population on National Forest lands in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. We identified individual bears by their unique genotypes obtained from 9 microsatellite loci. We sampled 129 and 60 different bears in the National Park and National Forest study areas, respectively, and applied closed mark–recapture models to estimate population abundance. Capture probabilities and precision of the population estimates were acceptable only for sampling scenarios for which we pooled weekly sampling periods. We detected capture heterogeneity biases, probably because of inadequate spatial coverage by the hair-trapping grid. The logistical challenges of establishing and checking a sufficiently high density of hair traps make DNA-based estimates of black bears impractical for the southern Appalachian region. Alternatives are to estimate population size for smaller areas, estimate population growth rates or survival using mark–recapture methods, or use independent marking and recapturing techniques to reduce capture heterogeneity.

Low-energy hydrogen uptake by small-cage C n and C n-1B fullerenes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dominguez-Gutierrez, F. Javier; Krstic, Predrag S.; Irle, Stephan

We present a theoretical study of the hydrogen uptake capability of carbon fullerene cages Cn and their boron-doped heterofullerene equivalents C n-1B, with n = 20, 40, and 60, irradiated by hydrogen atoms in an impact energy range of 0.1–100 eV. In order to predict exohedral and endohedral hydrogen captures as well as the scattering probability of hydrogen for various cage types and sizes, we perform quantum-classical molecular dynamics (QCMD) calculations using the self-consistent-charge density-functional tight-binding (SCC-DFTB) method. Maximum endohedral hydrogen capture probabilities of 20% for n = 60 and 14% for n = 40 are found at impact energiesmore » close to 15 eV for both C n and C n-1B systems. For n = 20, however, endohedral capture is observed at a maximum of 2%, while the exohedral capture reaches a maximum of 5% both at 15 eV. Similar results for the hydrogen capture are obtained by classical molecular dynamics based on the ReaxFF potential. Lastly, the stopping cross section per carbon atom from the QCMD simulations for all cage sizes displays a linear dependence on the projectile velocity with a threshold at 0.8 eV, and extrapolates well to the available theoretical data.« less

Low-energy hydrogen uptake by small-cage C n and C n-1B fullerenes

DOE PAGES

Dominguez-Gutierrez, F. Javier; Krstic, Predrag S.; Irle, Stephan; ...

2018-08-29

We present a theoretical study of the hydrogen uptake capability of carbon fullerene cages Cn and their boron-doped heterofullerene equivalents C n-1B, with n = 20, 40, and 60, irradiated by hydrogen atoms in an impact energy range of 0.1–100 eV. In order to predict exohedral and endohedral hydrogen captures as well as the scattering probability of hydrogen for various cage types and sizes, we perform quantum-classical molecular dynamics (QCMD) calculations using the self-consistent-charge density-functional tight-binding (SCC-DFTB) method. Maximum endohedral hydrogen capture probabilities of 20% for n = 60 and 14% for n = 40 are found at impact energiesmore » close to 15 eV for both C n and C n-1B systems. For n = 20, however, endohedral capture is observed at a maximum of 2%, while the exohedral capture reaches a maximum of 5% both at 15 eV. Similar results for the hydrogen capture are obtained by classical molecular dynamics based on the ReaxFF potential. Lastly, the stopping cross section per carbon atom from the QCMD simulations for all cage sizes displays a linear dependence on the projectile velocity with a threshold at 0.8 eV, and extrapolates well to the available theoretical data.« less

Estimating taxonomic diversity, extinction rates, and speciation rates from fossil data using capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

1983-01-01

Capture-recapture models can be used to estimate parameters of interest from paleobiological data when encouter probabilities are unknown and variable over time. These models also permit estimation of sampling variances and goodness-of-fit tests are available for assessing the fit of data to most models. The authors describe capture-recapture models which should be useful in paleobiological analyses and discuss the assumptions which underlie them. They illustrate these models with examples and discuss aspects of study design.

Structural symmetry in evolutionary games.

PubMed

McAvoy, Alex; Hauert, Christoph

2015-10-06

In evolutionary game theory, an important measure of a mutant trait (strategy) is its ability to invade and take over an otherwise-monomorphic population. Typically, one quantifies the success of a mutant strategy via the probability that a randomly occurring mutant will fixate in the population. However, in a structured population, this fixation probability may depend on where the mutant arises. Moreover, the fixation probability is just one quantity by which one can measure the success of a mutant; fixation time, for instance, is another. We define a notion of homogeneity for evolutionary games that captures what it means for two single-mutant states, i.e. two configurations of a single mutant in an otherwise-monomorphic population, to be 'evolutionarily equivalent' in the sense that all measures of evolutionary success are the same for both configurations. Using asymmetric games, we argue that the term 'homogeneous' should apply to the evolutionary process as a whole rather than to just the population structure. For evolutionary matrix games in graph-structured populations, we give precise conditions under which the resulting process is homogeneous. Finally, we show that asymmetric matrix games can be reduced to symmetric games if the population structure possesses a sufficient degree of symmetry. © 2015 The Author(s).

Structural symmetry in evolutionary games

PubMed Central

McAvoy, Alex; Hauert, Christoph

2015-01-01

In evolutionary game theory, an important measure of a mutant trait (strategy) is its ability to invade and take over an otherwise-monomorphic population. Typically, one quantifies the success of a mutant strategy via the probability that a randomly occurring mutant will fixate in the population. However, in a structured population, this fixation probability may depend on where the mutant arises. Moreover, the fixation probability is just one quantity by which one can measure the success of a mutant; fixation time, for instance, is another. We define a notion of homogeneity for evolutionary games that captures what it means for two single-mutant states, i.e. two configurations of a single mutant in an otherwise-monomorphic population, to be ‘evolutionarily equivalent’ in the sense that all measures of evolutionary success are the same for both configurations. Using asymmetric games, we argue that the term ‘homogeneous’ should apply to the evolutionary process as a whole rather than to just the population structure. For evolutionary matrix games in graph-structured populations, we give precise conditions under which the resulting process is homogeneous. Finally, we show that asymmetric matrix games can be reduced to symmetric games if the population structure possesses a sufficient degree of symmetry. PMID:26423436

Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh; Yard, Michael D.; Dzul, Maria C.

2018-01-01

Introduced species are frequently implicated in declines of native species. In many cases, however, evidence linking introduced species to native declines is weak. Failure to make strong inferences regarding the role of introduced species can hamper attempts to predict population viability and delay effective management responses. For many species, mark–recapture analysis is the more rigorous form of demographic analysis. However, to our knowledge, there are no mark–recapture models that allow for joint modeling of interacting species. Here, we introduce a two‐species mark–recapture population model in which the vital rates (and capture probabilities) of one species are allowed to vary in response to the abundance of the other species. We use a simulation study to explore bias and choose an approach to model selection. We then use the model to investigate species interactions between endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) and introduced rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River between 2009 and 2016. In particular, we test hypotheses about how two environmental factors (turbidity and temperature), intraspecific density dependence, and rainbow trout abundance are related to survival, growth, and capture of juvenile humpback chub. We also project the long‐term effects of different rainbow trout abundances on adult humpback chub abundances. Our simulation study suggests this approach has minimal bias under potentially challenging circumstances (i.e., low capture probabilities) that characterized our application and that model selection using indicator variables could reliably identify the true generating model even when process error was high. When the model was applied to rainbow trout and humpback chub, we identified negative relationships between rainbow trout abundance and the survival, growth, and capture probability of juvenile humpback chub. Effects on interspecific interactions on survival and capture probability were strongly supported, whereas support for the growth effect was weaker. Environmental factors were also identified to be important and in many cases stronger than interspecific interactions, and there was still substantial unexplained variation in growth and survival rates. The general approach presented here for combining mark–recapture data for two species is applicable in many other systems and could be modified to model abundance of the invader via other modeling approaches.

Prevalence and spatio-temporal variation of an alopecia syndrome in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the southern Beaufort Sea.

PubMed

Atwood, Todd; Peacock, Elizabeth; Burek-Huntington, Kathy; Shearn-Bochsler, Valerie; Bodenstein, Barbara; Beckmen, Kimberlee; Durner, George

2015-01-01

Alopecia (hair loss) has been observed in several marine mammal species and has potential energetic consequences for sustaining a normal core body temperature, especially for Arctic marine mammals routinely exposed to harsh environmental conditions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely on a thick layer of adipose tissue and a dense pelage to ameliorate convective heat loss while moving between sea ice and open water. From 1998 to 2012, we observed an alopecia syndrome in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska that presented as bilaterally asymmetrical loss of guard hairs and thinning of the undercoat around the head, neck, and shoulders, which, in severe cases, was accompanied by exudation and crusted skin lesions. Alopecia was observed in 49 (3.45%) of the bears sampled during 1,421 captures, and the apparent prevalence varied by years with peaks occurring in 1999 (16%) and 2012 (28%). The probability that a bear had alopecia was greatest for subadults and for bears captured in the Prudhoe Bay region, and alopecic individuals had a lower body condition score than unaffected individuals. The cause of the syndrome remains unknown and future work should focus on identifying the causative agent and potential effects on population vital rates.

Prevalence and spatio-temporal variation of an alopecia syndrome in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the southern Beaufort Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atwood, Todd C.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Burek, K.A.; Shearn-Bochsler, Valerie I.; Bodenstein, Barbara L.; Beckmen, Kimberlee B.; Durner, George M.

2015-01-01

Alopecia (hair loss) has been observed in several marine mammal species and has potential energetic consequences for sustaining a normal core body temperature, especially for Arctic marine mammals routinely exposed to harsh environmental conditions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely on a thick layer of adipose tissue and a dense pelage to ameliorate convective heat loss while moving between sea ice and open water. From 1998 to 2012, we observed an alopecia syndrome in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska that presented as bilaterally asymmetrical loss of guard hairs and thinning of the undercoat around the head, neck, and shoulders, which, in severe cases, was accompanied by exudation and crusted skin lesions. Alopecia was observed in 49 (3.45%) of the bears sampled during 1,421 captures, and the apparent prevalence varied by years with peaks occurring in 1999 (16%) and 2012 (28%). The probability that a bear had alopecia was greatest for subadults and for bears captured in the Prudhoe Bay region, and alopecic individuals had a lower body condition score than unaffected individuals. The cause of the syndrome remains unknown and future work should focus on identifying the causative agent and potential effects on population vital rates.

Uncovering a latent multinomial: Analysis of mark-recapture data with misidentification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Yoshizaki, J.; Bailey, L.L.; Pollock, K.H.

2010-01-01

Natural tags based on DNA fingerprints or natural features of animals are now becoming very widely used in wildlife population biology. However, classic capture-recapture models do not allow for misidentification of animals which is a potentially very serious problem with natural tags. Statistical analysis of misidentification processes is extremely difficult using traditional likelihood methods but is easily handled using Bayesian methods. We present a general framework for Bayesian analysis of categorical data arising from a latent multinomial distribution. Although our work is motivated by a specific model for misidentification in closed population capture-recapture analyses, with crucial assumptions which may not always be appropriate, the methods we develop extend naturally to a variety of other models with similar structure. Suppose that observed frequencies f are a known linear transformation f = A???x of a latent multinomial variable x with cell probability vector ?? = ??(??). Given that full conditional distributions [?? | x] can be sampled, implementation of Gibbs sampling requires only that we can sample from the full conditional distribution [x | f, ??], which is made possible by knowledge of the null space of A???. We illustrate the approach using two data sets with individual misidentification, one simulated, the other summarizing recapture data for salamanders based on natural marks. ?? 2009, The International Biometric Society.

Uncovering a Latent Multinomial: Analysis of Mark-Recapture Data with Misidentification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Yoshizaki, J.; Bailey, L.L.; Pollock, K.H.

2009-01-01

Natural tags based on DNA fingerprints or natural features of animals are now becoming very widely used in wildlife population biology. However, classic capture-recapture models do not allow for misidentification of animals which is a potentially very serious problem with natural tags. Statistical analysis of misidentification processes is extremely difficult using traditional likelihood methods but is easily handled using Bayesian methods. We present a general framework for Bayesian analysis of categorical data arising from a latent multinomial distribution. Although our work is motivated by a specific model for misidentification in closed population capture-recapture analyses, with crucial assumptions which may not always be appropriate, the methods we develop extend naturally to a variety of other models with similar structure. Suppose that observed frequencies f are a known linear transformation f=A'x of a latent multinomial variable x with cell probability vector pi= pi(theta). Given that full conditional distributions [theta | x] can be sampled, implementation of Gibbs sampling requires only that we can sample from the full conditional distribution [x | f, theta], which is made possible by knowledge of the null space of A'. We illustrate the approach using two data sets with individual misidentification, one simulated, the other summarizing recapture data for salamanders based on natural marks.

Effect of simulated lunar impact on the survival of bacterial spores.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitfield, O.; Merek, E. L.; Oyama, V. I.

1973-01-01

In order to test the effect of impact on organisms, the survival of bacterial spores after being propelled at high velocity in Pyrex and plastic beads into crushed basalt was measured. The beads were fired into sterilized canisters by both a conventional powder and a light gas gun. Results indicate that at the minimum (2.4 km/sec) lunar capture velocity, the number of colony forming units (CFUs) decreased by five orders of magnitude, and at 5.5 km/sec, statistically a more probable capture velocity, no CFUs were found. The decrease in CFUs observed with increasing velocity indicates that the spores were most probably killed by the impact.

Comparing Models and Methods for the Delineation of Stream Baseflow Contribution Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, R.; Frind, M.; Frind, E. O.; Jones, J. P.; Sousa, M.; Rudolph, D. L.; Nowak, W.

2016-12-01

This study addresses the delineation of areas that contribute baseflow to a stream reach, also known as stream capture zones. Such areas can be delineated using standard well capture zone delineation methods, with three important differences: (1) natural gradients are smaller compared to those produced by supply wells and are therefore subject to greater numerical errors, (2) stream discharge varies seasonally, and (3) stream discharge varies spatially. This study focuses on model-related uncertainties due to parameter non-uniqueness, discretization schemes, and particle tracking algorithms. The methodology is applied to the Alder Creek watershed in southwestern Ontario. Four different model codes are compared: HydroGeoSphere, WATFLOW, MODFLOW, and FEFLOW. In addition, two delineation methods are compared: reverse particle tracking and reverse transport, where the latter considers local-scale parameter uncertainty by using a macrodispersion term to produce a capture probability plume. The results from this study indicate that different models can calibrate acceptably well to the same data and produce very similar distributions of hydraulic head, but can produce different capture zones. The stream capture zone is found to be highly sensitive to the particle tracking algorithm. It was also found that particle tracking by itself, if applied to complex systems such as the Alder Creek watershed, would require considerable subjective judgement in the delineation of stream capture zones. Reverse transport is an alternate approach that provides probability intervals for the baseflow contribution areas. In situations where the two approaches agree, the confidence in the delineation is reinforced.

Wind speed affects prey-catching behaviour in an orb web spider.

PubMed

Turner, Joe; Vollrath, Fritz; Hesselberg, Thomas

2011-12-01

Wind has previously been shown to influence the location and orientation of spider web sites and also the geometry and material composition of constructed orb webs. We now show that wind also influences components of prey-catching behaviour within the web. A small wind tunnel was used to generate different wind speeds. Araneus diadematus ran more slowly towards entangled Drosophila melanogaster in windy conditions, which took less time to escape the web. This indicates a lower capture probability and a diminished overall predation efficiency for spiders at higher wind speeds. We conclude that spiders' behaviour of taking down their webs as wind speed increases may therefore not be a response only to possible web damage.

Wind speed affects prey-catching behaviour in an orb web spider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Joe; Vollrath, Fritz; Hesselberg, Thomas

2011-12-01

Wind has previously been shown to influence the location and orientation of spider web sites and also the geometry and material composition of constructed orb webs. We now show that wind also influences components of prey-catching behaviour within the web. A small wind tunnel was used to generate different wind speeds. Araneus diadematus ran more slowly towards entangled Drosophila melanogaster in windy conditions, which took less time to escape the web. This indicates a lower capture probability and a diminished overall predation efficiency for spiders at higher wind speeds. We conclude that spiders' behaviour of taking down their webs as wind speed increases may therefore not be a response only to possible web damage.

Investigations of potential bias in the estimation of lambda using Pradel's (1996) model for capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2002-01-01

Pradel's (1996) temporal symmetry model permitting direct estimation and modelling of population growth rate, lambda sub i provides a potentially useful tool for the study of population dynamics using marked animals. Because of its recent publication date, the approach has not seen much use, and there have been virtually no investigations directed at robustness of the resulting estimators. Here we consider several potential sources of bias, all motivated by specific uses of this estimation approach. We consider sampling situations in which the study area expands with time and present an analytic expression for the bias in lambda hat sub i. We next consider trap response in capture probabilities and heterogeneous capture probabilities and compute large-sample and simulation-based approximations of resulting bias in lambda hat sub i. These approximations indicate that trap response is an especially important assumption violation that can produce substantial bias. Finally, we consider losses on capture and emphasize the importance of selecting the estimator for lambda sub i that is appropriate to the question being addressed. For studies based on only sighting and resighting data, Pradel's (1996) lambda hat prime sub i is the appropriate estimator.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Quantitative screening of yeast surface-displayed polypeptide libraries by magnetic bead capture.

PubMed

Yeung, Yik A; Wittrup, K Dane

2002-01-01

Magnetic bead capture is demonstrated here to be a feasible alternative for quantitative screening of favorable mutants from a cell-displayed polypeptide library. Flow cytometric sorting with fluorescent probes has been employed previously for high throughput screening for either novel binders or improved mutants. However, many laboratories do not have ready access to this technology as a result of the limited availability and high cost of cytometers, restricting the use of cell-displayed libraries. Using streptavidin-coated magnetic beads and biotinylated ligands, an alternative approach to cell-based library screening for improved mutants was developed. Magnetic bead capture probability of labeled cells is shown to be closely correlated with the surface ligand density. A single-pass enrichment ratio of 9400 +/- 1800-fold, at the expense of 85 +/- 6% binder losses, is achieved from screening a library that contains one antibody-displaying cell (binder) in 1.1 x 10(5) nondisplaying cells. Additionally, kinetic screening for an initial high affinity to low affinity (7.7-fold lower) mutant ratio of 1:95,000, the magnetic bead capture method attains a single-pass enrichment ratio of 600 +/- 200-fold with a 75 +/- 24% probability of loss for the higher affinity mutant. The observed high loss probabilities can be straightforwardly compensated for by library oversampling, given the inherently parallel nature of the screen. Overall, these results demonstrate that magnetic beads are capable of quantitatively screening for novel binders and improved mutants. The described methods are directly analogous to procedures in common use for phage display and should lower the barriers to entry for use of cell surface display libraries.

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the performance of mark-recapture population size estimators under field conditions, which is essential for selecting an appropriate method and obtaining reliable results in ecology and conservation biology, and thus for sound management. PMID:24896260

Evaluating abundance estimate precision and the assumptions of a count-based index for small mammals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiewel, A.S.; Adams, A.A.Y.; Rodda, G.H.

2009-01-01

Conservation and management of small mammals requires reliable knowledge of population size. We investigated precision of markrecapture and removal abundance estimates generated from live-trapping and snap-trapping data collected at sites on Guam (n 7), Rota (n 4), Saipan (n 5), and Tinian (n 3), in the Mariana Islands. We also evaluated a common index, captures per unit effort (CPUE), as a predictor of abundance. In addition, we evaluated cost and time associated with implementing live-trapping and snap-trapping and compared species-specific capture rates of selected live- and snap-traps. For all species, markrecapture estimates were consistently more precise than removal estimates based on coefficients of variation and 95 confidence intervals. The predictive utility of CPUE was poor but improved with increasing sampling duration. Nonetheless, modeling of sampling data revealed that underlying assumptions critical to application of an index of abundance, such as constant capture probability across space, time, and individuals, were not met. Although snap-trapping was cheaper and faster than live-trapping, the time difference was negligible when site preparation time was considered. Rattus diardii spp. captures were greatest in Haguruma live-traps (Standard Trading Co., Honolulu, HI) and Victor snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation, Lititz, PA), whereas Suncus murinus and Mus musculus captures were greatest in Sherman live-traps (H. B. Sherman Traps, Inc., Tallahassee, FL) and Museum Special snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation). Although snap-trapping and CPUE may have utility after validation against more rigorous methods, validation should occur across the full range of study conditions. Resources required for this level of validation would likely be better allocated towards implementing rigorous and robust methods.

[Effect of environmental factors and fishing effort allocation on catch of the Spotted Eagle Ray Aetobatus narinari (Rajiformes: Myliobatidae) in Southern Gulf of Mexico].

PubMed

Cuevas, Elizabeth; Pérez, Juan Carlos; Méndez, Iván

2013-09-01

Aetobatus narinari represents a fisheries target in Southern Gulf of Mexico, and it is currently considered a Near Threatened species by the IUCN red list. The information available of this batoid fish includes some biological and fishery aspects; nevertheless, little is known about the factors influencing on fishing operations and catches. In order to evaluate the effect of environmental factors and the fishing effort allocation by vessels on the target fishery of A. narinari in this area, a daily basis sampling was carried out on four small-scale vessels, from January to July 2009 (the entire fishing season), in two fishing localities (Campeche and Seybaplaya). A total of 896 rays were recorded from 280 fishing trips. A General Linear Model was used to predict the factors effect on the probability that fishing operations occurred, and on the probability for captures of at least one or three or five rays per vessel-trip. The probability that fishing operations occurred off Campeche was predicted by the lunar cycle, with the highest probability in the new moon period (66%) and a probability smaller than 35% for the other periods. The probability that fishing operations occurred off Seybaplaya was predicted by wind velocity, with higher probabilities at low wind velocity than at high wind velocity, and a 50% probability of fishing operations at 12-15 km/h. Catch rates off Seybaplaya were predicted by the vessel's factor (the effect of fishing effort allocation), the North wind season and sea surface temperature. The probability for captures of at least one and three rays per vessel-trip was predicted by the vessel's factor and the North wind season. One vessel had higher catch probability (83% for at least one ray and 43% for at least three rays) than the others (69 and 70% for at least one ray and 26% for at least three rays), and during the North wind season the catch probability was higher (96% for at least one ray and 72% for at least three rays) than out of that season (68% for at least one ray and 21% for at least three rays). The probability for capture at least five rays per vessel-trip was predicted by the sea surface temperature and the North wind season. At 23 degrees C the catch probability was of 49% and the probability gradually diminished to 4% at 28 degrees C, and during the North wind season the catch probability was higher (40%) than out of that season (7%). This study shows that some environmental factors and fishermen perceptions and experience (fishing effort allocation) influence on the catch rate of A. narinari, and that these factors must be considered in future studies on elasmobranch fisheries, mainly when comparisons between catch rates among seasons or regions are analyzed.

Estimation of tiger densities in the tropical dry forests of Panna, Central India, using photographic capture-recapture sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.Ullas; Chundawat, Raghunandan S.; Nichols, James D.; Kumar, N. Samba

2004-01-01

Tropical dry-deciduous forests comprise more than 45% of the tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat in India. However, in the absence of rigorously derived estimates of ecological densities of tigers in dry forests, critical baseline data for managing tiger populations are lacking. In this study tiger densities were estimated using photographic capture–recapture sampling in the dry forests of Panna Tiger Reserve in Central India. Over a 45-day survey period, 60 camera trap sites were sampled in a well-protected part of the 542-km2 reserve during 2002. A total sampling effort of 914 camera-trap-days yielded photo-captures of 11 individual tigers over 15 sampling occasions that effectively covered a 418-km2 area. The closed capture–recapture model Mh, which incorporates individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, fitted these photographic capture history data well. The estimated capture probability/sample, p̂= 0.04, resulted in an estimated tiger population size and standard error (N̂(SÊN̂)) of 29 (9.65), and a density (D̂(SÊD̂)) of 6.94 (3.23) tigers/100 km2. The estimated tiger density matched predictions based on prey abundance. Our results suggest that, if managed appropriately, the available dry forest habitat in India has the potential to support a population size of about 9000 wild tigers.

The weaker effects of First-order mean motion resonances in intermediate inclinations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, YuanYuan; Quillen, Alice C.; Ma, Yuehua; Chinese Scholar Council, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, the Minor Planet Foundation of the Purple Mountain Observatory

2017-10-01

During planetary migration, a planet or planetesimal can be captured into a low-order mean motion resonance with another planet. Using a second-order expansion of the disturbing function in eccentricity and inclination, we explore the sensitivity of the capture probability of first-order mean motion resonances to orbital inclination. We find that second-order inclination contributions affect the resonance strengths, reducing them at intermediate inclinations of around 10-40° for major first-order resonances. We also integrated the Hamilton's equations with arbitrary initial arguments, and provided the varying tendencies of resonance capture probabilities versus orbital inclinations for different resonances and different particle or planetary eccentricities. Resonance-weaker ranges in inclinations generally appear at the places where resonance strengths are low, around 10-40° in general. The weaker ranges disappear with a higher particle eccentricity (≳0.05) or planetary eccentricity (≳0.05). These resonance-weaker ranges in inclinations implies that intermediate-inclination objects are less likely to be disturbed or captured into the first-order resonances, which would make them entering into the chaotic area around Neptune with a larger fraction than those with low inclinations, during the epoch of Neptune's outward migration. The privilege of high-inclination particles leave them to be more likely captured into Neptune Trojans, which might be responsible for the unexpected high fraction of high-inclination Neptune Trojans.

Probability distribution functions for intermittent scrape-off layer plasma fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theodorsen, A.; Garcia, O. E.

2018-03-01

A stochastic model for intermittent fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of magnetically confined plasmas has been constructed based on a super-position of uncorrelated pulses arriving according to a Poisson process. In the most common applications of the model, the pulse amplitudes are assumed exponentially distributed, supported by conditional averaging of large-amplitude fluctuations in experimental measurement data. This basic assumption has two potential limitations. First, statistical analysis of measurement data using conditional averaging only reveals the tail of the amplitude distribution to be exponentially distributed. Second, exponentially distributed amplitudes leads to a positive definite signal which cannot capture fluctuations in for example electric potential and radial velocity. Assuming pulse amplitudes which are not positive definite often make finding a closed form for the probability density function (PDF) difficult, even if the characteristic function remains relatively simple. Thus estimating model parameters requires an approach based on the characteristic function, not the PDF. In this contribution, the effect of changing the amplitude distribution on the moments, PDF and characteristic function of the process is investigated and a parameter estimation method using the empirical characteristic function is presented and tested on synthetically generated data. This proves valuable for describing intermittent fluctuations of all plasma parameters in the boundary region of magnetized plasmas.

Prediction and uncertainty in human Pavlovian to instrumental transfer.

PubMed

Trick, Leanne; Hogarth, Lee; Duka, Theodora

2011-05-01

Attentional capture and behavioral control by conditioned stimuli have been dissociated in animals. The current study assessed this dissociation in humans. Participants were trained on a Pavlovian schedule in which 3 visual stimuli, A, B, and C, predicted the occurrence of an aversive noise with 90%, 50%, or 10% probability, respectively. Participants then went on to separate instrumental training in which a key-press response canceled the aversive noise with a .5 probability on a variable interval schedule. Finally, in the transfer phase, the 3 Pavlovian stimuli were presented in this instrumental schedule and were no longer differentially predictive of the outcome. Observing times and gaze dwell time indexed attention to these stimuli in both training and transfer. Aware participants acquired veridical outcome expectancies in training--that is, A > B > C, and these expectancies persisted into transfer. Most important, the transfer effect accorded with these expectancies, A > B > C. By contrast, observing times accorded with uncertainty--that is, they showed B > A = C during training, and B < A = C in the transfer phase. Dwell time bias supported this association between attention and uncertainty, although these data showed a slightly more complicated pattern. Overall, the study suggests that transfer is linked to outcome prediction and is dissociated from attention to conditioned stimuli, which is linked to outcome uncertainty.

Effects of capturing and collaring on polar bears: findings from long-term research on the southern Beaufort Sea population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Pagano, Anthony M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Atwood, Todd C.; Durner, George M.; Simac, Kristin S.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2014-01-01

Context: The potential for research methods to affect wildlife is an increasing concern among both scientists and the public. This topic has a particular urgency for polar bears because additional research is needed to monitor and understand population responses to rapid loss of sea ice habitat.Aims: This study used data collected from polar bears sampled in the Alaska portion of the southern Beaufort Sea to investigate the potential for capture to adversely affect behaviour and vital rates. We evaluated the extent to which capture, collaring and handling may influence activity and movement days to weeks post-capture, and body mass, body condition, reproduction and survival over 6 months or more.Methods: We compared post-capture activity and movement rates, and relationships between prior capture history and body mass, body condition and reproductive success. We also summarised data on capture-related mortality.Key results: Individual-based estimates of activity and movement rates reached near-normal levels within 2–3 days and fully normal levels within 5 days post-capture. Models of activity and movement rates among all bears had poor fit, but suggested potential for prolonged, lower-level rate reductions. Repeated captures was not related to negative effects on body condition, reproduction or cub growth or survival. Capture-related mortality was substantially reduced after 1986, when immobilisation drugs were changed, with only 3 mortalities in 2517 captures from 1987–2013.Conclusions: Polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea exhibited the greatest reductions in activity and movement rates 3.5 days post-capture. These shorter-term, post-capture effects do not appear to have translated into any long-term effects on body condition, reproduction, or cub survival. Additionally, collaring had no effect on polar bear recovery rates, body condition, reproduction or cub survival.Implications: This study provides empirical evidence that current capture-based research methods do not have long-term implications, and are not contributing to observed changes in body condition, reproduction or survival in the southern Beaufort Sea. Continued refinement of capture protocols, such as the use of low-impact dart rifles and reversible drug combinations, might improve polar bear response to capture and abate short-term reductions in activity and movement post-capture.

A Comparison of Herpetofaunal Sampling Effectiveness of Pitfall, Single-ended, and Double-ended Funnel Traps Used with Drift Fences

Treesearch

Cathryn H. Greenberg; Daniel G. Neary; Larry D. Harris

1994-01-01

We assessed the relative effectiveness of pitfalls, single-ended, and double-ended funnel traps at 12 replicate sites in sand pine scrub using drift fence arrays. Pitfalls captured fewer species but yielded more individuals of many species and higher average species richness than funnel traps. Pitfalls and funnel traps exhibited differential capture bias probably due...

Reaction dynamics near the barrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loveland, W.

2011-10-01

The availability of modest intensity (103-107 p/s) radioactive nuclear beams has had a significant impact on the study of nuclear reactions near the interaction barrier. The role of isospin in capture reactions is a case in point. Using heavy elements as a laboratory to explore these effects, we note that the cross section for producing an evaporation residue is σEVR(Ec . m .) = ∑ J = 0 JmaxσCN(Ec . m . , J) Wsur(Ec . m . , J) where σCN is the complete fusion cross section and Wsur is the survival probability of the completely fused system. The complete fusion cross section can be written as, σCN(Ec . m .) = ∑ J = 0 Jmaxσcapture(Ec . m .) PCN(Ec . m . , J) where σcapture(Ec.m.,J) is the ``capture'' cross section at center-of mass energy Ec.m. and spin J and PCN is the probability that the projectile-target system will evolve inside the fission saddle point to form a completely fused system rather than re-separating (quasi-fission). The systematics of the isospin dependence of the capture cross sections has been developed and the deduced interaction barriers for all known studies of capture cross sections with radioactive beams are in good agreement with recent predictions of an improved QMD model and semi-empirical models. The deduced barriers for these n-rich systems are lower than one would expect from the Bass or proximity potentials. In addition to the barrier lowering, there is an enhanced sub-barrier cross section in these n-rich systems that is of advantage in the synthesis of new heavy nuclei. Recent studies of the ``inverse fission'' of uranium (124,132Sn + 100Mo) have yielded unexpectedly low upper limits for this process due apparently to low values of the fusion probability, PCN. The fusion of halo nuclei, like 11Li with heavy nuclei, like 208Pb, promises to give new information about these and related nuclei and has led/may lead to unusual reaction mechanisms. This work was sponsored, in part, by the USDOE Office of Nuclear Physics.

Ground-water hydrology and simulated effects of development in the Milford area, an arid basin in southwestern Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, James L.

1998-01-01

A three-dimensional, finite-difference model was constructed to simulate ground-water flow in the Milford area. The purpose of the study was to evaluate present knowledge and concepts of the groundwater system, to analyze the ability of the model to represent past and current (1984) conditions, and to estimate the effects of various groundwater development alternatives. The alternative patterns of groundwater development might prove effective in capturing natural discharge from the basin-fill aquifer while limiting water-level declines. Water levels measured during this study indicate that ground water in the Milford area flows in a northwesterly direction through consolidated rocks in the northern San Francisco Mountains toward Sevier Lake. The revised potentiometric surface shows a large area for probable basin outflow, indicating that more water leaves the Milford area than the 8 acre-feet per year estimated previously.Simulations made to calibrate the model were able to approximate steady-state conditions for 1927, before ground-water development began, and transient conditions for 1950-82, during which groundwater withdrawal increased. Basin recharge from the consolidated rocks and basin outflow were calculated during the calibration process. Transient simulations using constant and variable recharge from surface water were made to test effects of large flows in the Beaver River.Simulations were made to project water-level declines over a 37- year period (1983-2020) using the present pumping distribution. Ground-water withdrawals were simulated at 1, 1.5, and 2 times the 1979-82 average rate.The concepts of "sustained" yield, ground-water mining, and the capture of natural discharge were tested using several hypothetical pumping distributions over a 600-year simulation period. Simulations using concentrated pumping centers were the least efficient at capturing natural discharge and produced the largest water-level declines. Simulations using strategically placed ground-water withdrawals in the discharge area were the most efficient at eliminating natural discharge with small water-level declines.

Recombination activity of light-activated copper defects in p-type silicon studied by injection- and temperature-dependent lifetime spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inglese, Alessandro; Lindroos, Jeanette; Vahlman, Henri; Savin, Hele

2016-09-01

The presence of copper contamination is known to cause strong light-induced degradation (Cu-LID) in silicon. In this paper, we parametrize the recombination activity of light-activated copper defects in terms of Shockley—Read—Hall recombination statistics through injection- and temperature dependent lifetime spectroscopy (TDLS) performed on deliberately contaminated float zone silicon wafers. We obtain an accurate fit of the experimental data via two non-interacting energy levels, i.e., a deep recombination center featuring an energy level at Ec-Et=0.48 -0.62 eV with a moderate donor-like capture asymmetry ( k =1.7 -2.6 ) and an additional shallow energy state located at Ec-Et=0.1 -0.2 eV , which mostly affects the carrier lifetime only at high-injection conditions. Besides confirming these defect parameters, TDLS measurements also indicate a power-law temperature dependence of the capture cross sections associated with the deep energy state. Eventually, we compare these results with the available literature data, and we find that the formation of copper precipitates is the probable root cause behind Cu-LID.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goriely, S.; Bauswein, A.; Janka, H.-T.

About half of the nuclei heavier than iron observed in nature are produced by the so-called rapid neutron capture process, or r-process, of nucleosynthesis. The identification of the astrophysics site and the specific conditions in which the r-process takes place remains, however, one of the still-unsolved mysteries of modern astrophysics. Another underlying difficulty associated with our understanding of the r-process concerns the uncertainties in the predictions of nuclear properties for the few thousands exotic neutron-rich nuclei involved, for which essentially no experimental data exist. The present paper emphasizes some important future challenges faced by nuclear physics in this problem, particularlymore » in the determination of the nuclear structure properties of exotic neutron-rich nuclei as well as their radiative neutron capture rates and their fission probabilities. These quantities are particularly relevant to determine the composition of the matter resulting from the r-process. Both the astrophysics and the nuclear physics difficulties are critically reviewed with special attention paid to the r-process taking place during the decompression of neutron star matter following the merging of two neutron stars.« less

Software Review: A program for testing capture-recapture data for closure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, Thomas R.; Richards, Jon D.

2005-01-01

Capture-recapture methods are widely used to estimate population parameters of free-ranging animals. Closed-population capture-recapture models, which assume there are no additions to or losses from the population over the period of study (i.e., the closure assumption), are preferred for population estimation over the open-population models, which do not assume closure, because heterogeneity in detection probabilities can be accounted for and this improves estimates. In this paper we introduce CloseTest, a new Microsoft® Windows-based program that computes the Otis et al. (1978) and Stanley and Burnham (1999) closure tests for capture-recapture data sets. Information on CloseTest features and where to obtain the program are provided.

Delineating baseflow contribution areas for streams - A model and methods comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, Reynold; Frind, Michael E.; Frind, Emil O.; Jones, Jon P.; Sousa, Marcelo R.; Rudolph, David L.; Molson, John W.; Nowak, Wolfgang

2016-12-01

This study addresses the delineation of areas that contribute baseflow to a stream reach, also known as stream capture zones. Such areas can be delineated using standard well capture zone delineation methods, with three important differences: (1) natural gradients are smaller compared to those produced by supply wells and are therefore subject to greater numerical errors, (2) stream discharge varies seasonally, and (3) stream discharge varies spatially. This study focuses on model-related uncertainties due to model characteristics, discretization schemes, delineation methods, and particle tracking algorithms. The methodology is applied to the Alder Creek watershed in southwestern Ontario. Four different model codes are compared: HydroGeoSphere, WATFLOW, MODFLOW, and FEFLOW. In addition, two delineation methods are compared: reverse particle tracking and reverse transport, where the latter considers local-scale parameter uncertainty by using a macrodispersion term to produce a capture probability plume. The results from this study indicate that different models can calibrate acceptably well to the same data and produce very similar distributions of hydraulic head, but can produce different capture zones. The stream capture zone is found to be highly sensitive to the particle tracking algorithm. It was also found that particle tracking by itself, if applied to complex systems such as the Alder Creek watershed, would require considerable subjective judgement in the delineation of stream capture zones. Reverse transport is an alternative and more reliable approach that provides probability intervals for the baseflow contribution areas, taking uncertainty into account. The two approaches can be used together to enhance the confidence in the final outcome.

Quantum probability and conceptual combination in conjunctions.

PubMed

Hampton, James A

2013-06-01

I consider the general problem of category conjunctions in the light of Pothos & Busemeyer (P&B)'s quantum probability (QP) account of the conjunction fallacy. I argue that their account as presented cannot capture the "guppy effect" - the case in which a class is a better member of a conjunction A^B than it is of either A or B alone.

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

The problem of latent attentional capture: Easy visual search conceals capture by task-irrelevant abrupt onsets.

PubMed

Gaspelin, Nicholas; Ruthruff, Eric; Lien, Mei-Ching

2016-08-01

Researchers are sharply divided regarding whether irrelevant abrupt onsets capture spatial attention. Numerous studies report that they do and a roughly equal number report that they do not. This puzzle has inspired numerous attempts at reconciliation, none gaining general acceptance. The authors propose that abrupt onsets routinely capture attention, but the size of observed capture effects depends critically on how long attention dwells on distractor items which, in turn, depends critically on search difficulty. In a series of spatial cuing experiments, the authors show that irrelevant abrupt onsets produce robust capture effects when visual search is difficult, but not when search is easy. Critically, this effect occurs even when search difficulty varies randomly across trials, preventing any strategic adjustments of the attentional set that could modulate probability of capture by the onset cue. The authors argue that easy visual search provides an insensitive test for stimulus-driven capture by abrupt onsets: even though onsets truly capture attention, the effects of capture can be latent. This observation helps to explain previous failures to find capture by onsets, nearly all of which used an easy visual search. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The Problem of Latent Attentional Capture: Easy Visual Search Conceals Capture by Task-Irrelevant Abrupt Onsets

PubMed Central

Gaspelin, Nicholas; Ruthruff, Eric; Lien, Mei-Ching

2016-01-01

Researchers are sharply divided regarding whether irrelevant abrupt onsets capture spatial attention. Numerous studies report that they do and a roughly equal number report that they do not. This puzzle has inspired numerous attempts at reconciliation, none gaining general acceptance. We propose that abrupt onsets routinely capture attention, but the size of observed capture effects depends critically on how long attention dwells on distractor items which, in turn, depends critically on search difficulty. In a series of spatial cuing experiments, we show that irrelevant abrupt onsets produce robust capture effects when visual search is difficult, but not when search is easy. Critically, this effect occurs even when search difficulty varies randomly across trials, preventing any strategic adjustments of the attentional set that could modulate probability of capture by the onset cue. We argue that easy visual search provides an insensitive test for stimulus-driven capture by abrupt onsets: even though onsets truly capture attention, the effects of capture can be latent. This observation helps to explain previous failures to find capture by onsets, nearly all of which employed an easy visual search. PMID:26854530

Quantifying the Contribution of Wind-Driven Linear Response to the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Amoc Volume Transports Across 26.5ºN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; von Storch, J. S.; Haak, H.; Nakayama, K.; Marotzke, J.

2014-12-01

Surface wind stress is considered to be an important forcing of the seasonal and interannual variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) volume transports. A recent study showed that even linear response to wind forcing captures observed features of the mean seasonal cycle. However, the study did not assess the contribution of wind-driven linear response in realistic conditions against the RAPID/MOCHA array observation or Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations, because it applied a linear two-layer model to the Atlantic assuming constant upper layer thickness and density difference across the interface. Here, we quantify the contribution of wind-driven linear response to the seasonal and interannual variability of AMOC transports by comparing wind-driven linear simulations under realistic continuous stratification against the RAPID observation and OCGM (MPI-OM) simulations with 0.4º resolution (TP04) and 0.1º resolution (STORM). All the linear and MPI-OM simulations capture more than 60% of the variance in the observed mean seasonal cycle of the Upper Mid-Ocean (UMO) and Florida Strait (FS) transports, two components of the upper branch of the AMOC. The linear and TP04 simulations also capture 25-40% of the variance in the observed transport time series between Apr 2004 and Oct 2012; the STORM simulation does not capture the observed variance because of the stochastic signal in both datasets. Comparison of half-overlapping 12-month-long segments reveals some periods when the linear and TP04 simulations capture 40-60% of the observed variance, as well as other periods when the simulations capture only 0-20% of the variance. These results show that wind-driven linear response is a major contributor to the seasonal and interannual variability of the UMO and FS transports, and that its contribution varies in an interannual timescale, probably due to the variability of stochastic processes.

Improving the prospects of cleavage-based nanopore sequencing engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brady, Kyle T.; Reiner, Joseph E.

2015-08-01

Recently proposed methods for DNA sequencing involve the use of cleavage-based enzymes attached to the opening of a nanopore. The idea is that DNA interacting with either an exonuclease or polymerase protein will lead to a small molecule being cleaved near the mouth of the nanopore, and subsequent entry into the pore will yield information about the DNA sequence. The prospects for this approach seem promising, but it has been shown that diffusion related effects impose a limit on the capture probability of molecules by the pore, which limits the efficacy of the technique. Here, we revisit the problem with the goal of optimizing the capture probability via a step decrease in the nucleotide diffusion coefficient between the pore and bulk solutions. It is shown through random walk simulations and a simplified analytical model that decreasing the molecule's diffusion coefficient in the bulk relative to its value in the pore increases the nucleotide capture probability. Specifically, we show that at sufficiently high applied transmembrane potentials (≥100 mV), increasing the potential by a factor f is equivalent to decreasing the diffusion coefficient ratio Dbulk/Dpore by the same factor f. This suggests a promising route toward implementation of cleavage-based sequencing protocols. We also discuss the feasibility of forming a step function in the diffusion coefficient across the pore-bulk interface.

Evaluating the status of African wild dogs Lycaon pictus and cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus through tourist-based photographic surveys in the Kruger National Park [corrected].

PubMed

Marnewick, Kelly; Ferreira, Sam M; Grange, Sophie; Watermeyer, Jessica; Maputla, Nakedi; Davies-Mostert, Harriet T

2014-01-01

The Kruger National Park is a stronghold for African wild dog Lycaon pictus and cheetah Acinonyx jubatus conservation in South Africa. Tourist photographic surveys have been used to evaluate the minimum number of wild dogs and cheetahs alive over the last two decades. Photographic-based capture-recapture techniques for open populations were used on data collected during a survey done in 2008/9. Models were run for the park as a whole and per region (northern, central, southern). A total of 412 (329-495; SE 41.95) cheetahs and 151 (144-157; SE 3.21) wild dogs occur in the Kruger National Park. Cheetah capture probabilities were affected by time (number of entries) and sex, whereas wild dog capture probabilities were affected by the region of the park. When plotting the number of new individuals identified against the number of entries received, the addition of new wild dogs to the survey reached an asymptote at 210 entries, but cheetahs did not reach an asymptote. The cheetah population of Kruger appears to be acceptable, while the wild dog population size and density are of concern. The effectiveness of tourist-based surveys for estimating population sizes through capture-recapture analyses is shown.

Evaluating the Status of and African Wild Dogs Lycaon pictus and Cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus through Tourist-based Photographic Surveys in the Kruger National Park

PubMed Central

Marnewick, Kelly; Ferreira, Sam M.; Grange, Sophie; Watermeyer, Jessica; Maputla, Nakedi; Davies-Mostert, Harriet T.

2014-01-01

The Kruger National Park is a stronghold for African wild dog Lycaon pictus and cheetah Acinonyx jubatus conservation in South Africa. Tourist photographic surveys have been used to evaluate the minimum number of wild dogs and cheetahs alive over the last two decades. Photographic-based capture-recapture techniques for open populations were used on data collected during a survey done in 2008/9. Models were run for the park as a whole and per region (northern, central, southern). A total of 412 (329–495; SE 41.95) cheetahs and 151 (144–157; SE 3.21) wild dogs occur in the Kruger National Park. Cheetah capture probabilities were affected by time (number of entries) and sex, whereas wild dog capture probabilities were affected by the region of the park. When plotting the number of new individuals identified against the number of entries received, the addition of new wild dogs to the survey reached an asymptote at 210 entries, but cheetahs did not reach an asymptote. The cheetah population of Kruger appears to be acceptable, while the wild dog population size and density are of concern. The effectiveness of tourist-based surveys for estimating population sizes through capture-recapture analyses is shown. PMID:24465998

Seasonal variation in size-dependent survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): Performance of multistate capture-mark-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, B.H.; Horton, G.E.

2008-01-01

We estimated the magnitude and shape of size-dependent survival (SDS) across multiple sampling intervals for two cohorts of stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) juveniles using multistate capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models. Simulations designed to test the effectiveness of multistate models for detecting SDS in our system indicated that error in SDS estimates was low and that both time-invariant and time-varying SDS could be detected with sample sizes of >250, average survival of >0.6, and average probability of capture of >0.6, except for cases of very strong SDS. In the field (N ??? 750, survival 0.6-0.8 among sampling intervals, probability of capture 0.6-0.8 among sampling occasions), about one-third of the sampling intervals showed evidence of SDS, with poorer survival of larger fish during the age-2+ autumn and quadratic survival (opposite direction between cohorts) during age-1+ spring. The varying magnitude and shape of SDS among sampling intervals suggest a potential mechanism for the maintenance of the very wide observed size distributions. Estimating SDS using multistate CMR models appears complementary to established approaches, can provide estimates with low error, and can be used to detect intermittent SDS. ?? 2008 NRC Canada.

Efficient statistically accurate algorithms for the Fokker-Planck equation in large dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Nan; Majda, Andrew J.

2018-02-01

Solving the Fokker-Planck equation for high-dimensional complex turbulent dynamical systems is an important and practical issue. However, most traditional methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality and have difficulties in capturing the fat tailed highly intermittent probability density functions (PDFs) of complex systems in turbulence, neuroscience and excitable media. In this article, efficient statistically accurate algorithms are developed for solving both the transient and the equilibrium solutions of Fokker-Planck equations associated with high-dimensional nonlinear turbulent dynamical systems with conditional Gaussian structures. The algorithms involve a hybrid strategy that requires only a small number of ensembles. Here, a conditional Gaussian mixture in a high-dimensional subspace via an extremely efficient parametric method is combined with a judicious non-parametric Gaussian kernel density estimation in the remaining low-dimensional subspace. Particularly, the parametric method provides closed analytical formulae for determining the conditional Gaussian distributions in the high-dimensional subspace and is therefore computationally efficient and accurate. The full non-Gaussian PDF of the system is then given by a Gaussian mixture. Different from traditional particle methods, each conditional Gaussian distribution here covers a significant portion of the high-dimensional PDF. Therefore a small number of ensembles is sufficient to recover the full PDF, which overcomes the curse of dimensionality. Notably, the mixture distribution has significant skill in capturing the transient behavior with fat tails of the high-dimensional non-Gaussian PDFs, and this facilitates the algorithms in accurately describing the intermittency and extreme events in complex turbulent systems. It is shown in a stringent set of test problems that the method only requires an order of O (100) ensembles to successfully recover the highly non-Gaussian transient PDFs in up to 6 dimensions with only small errors.

DEIsoM: a hierarchical Bayesian model for identifying differentially expressed isoforms using biological replicates

PubMed Central

Peng, Hao; Yang, Yifan; Zhe, Shandian; Wang, Jian; Gribskov, Michael; Qi, Yuan

2017-01-01

Abstract Motivation High-throughput mRNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) is a powerful tool for quantifying gene expression. Identification of transcript isoforms that are differentially expressed in different conditions, such as in patients and healthy subjects, can provide insights into the molecular basis of diseases. Current transcript quantification approaches, however, do not take advantage of the shared information in the biological replicates, potentially decreasing sensitivity and accuracy. Results We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian model called Differentially Expressed Isoform detection from Multiple biological replicates (DEIsoM) for identifying differentially expressed (DE) isoforms from multiple biological replicates representing two conditions, e.g. multiple samples from healthy and diseased subjects. DEIsoM first estimates isoform expression within each condition by (1) capturing common patterns from sample replicates while allowing individual differences, and (2) modeling the uncertainty introduced by ambiguous read mapping in each replicate. Specifically, we introduce a Dirichlet prior distribution to capture the common expression pattern of replicates from the same condition, and treat the isoform expression of individual replicates as samples from this distribution. Ambiguous read mapping is modeled as a multinomial distribution, and ambiguous reads are assigned to the most probable isoform in each replicate. Additionally, DEIsoM couples an efficient variational inference and a post-analysis method to improve the accuracy and speed of identification of DE isoforms over alternative methods. Application of DEIsoM to an hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) dataset identifies biologically relevant DE isoforms. The relevance of these genes/isoforms to HCC are supported by principal component analysis (PCA), read coverage visualization, and the biological literature. Availability and implementation The software is available at https://github.com/hao-peng/DEIsoM Contact pengh@alumni.purdue.edu Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:28595376

Probability shapes perceptual precision: A study in orientation estimation.

PubMed

Jabar, Syaheed B; Anderson, Britt

2015-12-01

Probability is known to affect perceptual estimations, but an understanding of mechanisms is lacking. Moving beyond binary classification tasks, we had naive participants report the orientation of briefly viewed gratings where we systematically manipulated contingent probability. Participants rapidly developed faster and more precise estimations for high-probability tilts. The shapes of their error distributions, as indexed by a kurtosis measure, also showed a distortion from Gaussian. This kurtosis metric was robust, capturing probability effects that were graded, contextual, and varying as a function of stimulus orientation. Our data can be understood as a probability-induced reduction in the variability or "shape" of estimation errors, as would be expected if probability affects the perceptual representations. As probability manipulations are an implicit component of many endogenous cuing paradigms, changes at the perceptual level could account for changes in performance that might have traditionally been ascribed to "attention." (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Sub-barrier quasifission in heavy element formation reactions with deformed actinide target nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinde, D. J.; Jeung, D. Y.; Prasad, E.; Wakhle, A.; Dasgupta, M.; Evers, M.; Luong, D. H.; du Rietz, R.; Simenel, C.; Simpson, E. C.; Williams, E.

2018-02-01

Background: The formation of superheavy elements (SHEs) by fusion of two massive nuclei is severely inhibited by the competing quasifission process. Low excitation energies favor SHE survival against fusion-fission competition. In "cold" fusion with spherical target nuclei near 208Pb, SHE yields are largest at beam energies significantly below the average capture barrier. In "hot" fusion with statically deformed actinide nuclei, this is not the case. Here the elongated deformation-aligned configurations in sub-barrier capture reactions inhibits fusion (formation of a compact compound nucleus), instead favoring rapid reseparation through quasifission. Purpose: To determine the probabilities of fast and slow quasifission in reactions with prolate statically deformed actinide nuclei, through measurement and quantitative analysis of the dependence of quasifission characteristics at beam energies spanning the average capture barrier energy. Methods: The Australian National University Heavy Ion Accelerator Facility and CUBE fission spectrometer have been used to measure fission and quasifission mass and angle distributions for reactions with projectiles from C to S, bombarding Th and U target nuclei. Results: Mass-asymmetric quasifission occurring on a fast time scale, associated with collisions with the tips of the prolate actinide nuclei, shows a rapid increase in probability with increasing projectile charge, the transition being centered around projectile atomic number ZP=14 . For mass-symmetric fission events, deviations of angular anisotropies from expectations for fusion fission, indicating a component of slower quasifission, suggest a similar transition, but centered around ZP˜8 . Conclusions: Collisions with the tips of statically deformed prolate actinide nuclei show evidence for two distinct quasifission processes of different time scales. Their probabilities both increase rapidly with the projectile charge. The probability of fusion can be severely suppressed by these two quasifission processes, since the sub-barrier heavy element yield is likely to be determined by the product of the probabilities of surviving each quasifission process.

Accounting for false-positive acoustic detections of bats using occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clement, Matthew J.; Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Nichols, James D.

2014-01-01

4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that false positives sufficient to affect inferences may be common in acoustic surveys for bats. We demonstrate an approach that can estimate occupancy, regardless of the false-positive rate, when acoustic surveys are paired with capture surveys. Applications of this approach include monitoring the spread of White-Nose Syndrome, estimating the impact of climate change and informing conservation listing decisions. We calculate a site-specific probability of occupancy, conditional on survey results, which could inform local permitting decisions, such as for wind energy projects. More generally, the magnitude of false positives suggests that false-positive occupancy models can improve accuracy in research and monitoring of bats and provide wildlife managers with more reliable information.

And the first one now will later be last: Time-reversal in cormack-jolly-seber models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.

2016-01-01

The models of Cormack, Jolly and Seber (CJS) are remarkable in providing a rich set of inferences about population survival, recruitment, abundance and even sampling probabilities from a seemingly limited data source: a matrix of 1's and 0's reflecting animal captures and recaptures at multiple sampling occasions. Survival and sampling probabilities are estimated directly in CJS models, whereas estimators for recruitment and abundance were initially obtained as derived quantities. Various investigators have noted that just as standard modeling provides direct inferences about survival, reversing the time order of capture history data permits direct modeling and inference about recruitment. Here we review the development of reverse-time modeling efforts, emphasizing the kinds of inferences and questions to which they seem well suited.

Integrating resource selection information with spatial capture--recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.

2013-01-01

4. Finally, we find that SCR models using standard symmetric and stationary encounter probability models may not fully explain variation in encounter probability due to space usage, and therefore produce biased estimates of density when animal space usage is related to resource selection. Consequently, it is important that space usage be taken into consideration, if possible, in studies focused on estimating density using capture–recapture methods.

Physiological stress and post-release mortality of white marlin (Kajikia albida) caught in the United States recreational fishery

PubMed Central

Schlenker, Lela S.; Latour, Robert J.; Brill, Richard W.; Graves, John E.

2016-01-01

White marlin, a highly migratory pelagic marine fish, support important commercial and recreational fisheries throughout their range in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. More than 10 000 individuals can be caught annually in the United States recreational fishery, of which the vast majority are captured on circle hooks and released alive. The probability of post-release mortality of white marlin released from circle hooks has been documented to be <0.02, but the associated physiological stress resulting from capture and handling techniques has not been characterized despite its importance for understanding the health of released fish. We examined the physiological response of 68 white marlin caught on circle hooks in the recreational fishery and followed the fate of 22 of these fish with pop-up satellite archival tags programmed to release after 30 days. Measures of plasma sodium, chloride, glucose and lactate concentrations taken from fish that were briefly and consistently (mean = 120 s, standard deviation = 40 s) removed from the water increased with angling time, but post-release mortality was inversely related to angling time. The probability of post-release mortality was predicted by elevated plasma potassium concentrations and was more than 10 times greater than has been previously reported for white marlin caught on circle hooks that were not removed from the water. This disparity in estimates of post-release mortality suggests that removal of fish from the water for physiological sampling greatly heightens stress, disrupts homeostasis and thus increases the probability of post-release mortality. Our results demonstrate that elevated concentrations of plasma potassium predict mortality in white marlin and that the probability of post-release mortality is highly dependent on post-capture handling procedures. PMID:27293745

Physiological stress and post-release mortality of white marlin (Kajikia albida) caught in the United States recreational fishery.

PubMed

Schlenker, Lela S; Latour, Robert J; Brill, Richard W; Graves, John E

2016-01-01

White marlin, a highly migratory pelagic marine fish, support important commercial and recreational fisheries throughout their range in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. More than 10 000 individuals can be caught annually in the United States recreational fishery, of which the vast majority are captured on circle hooks and released alive. The probability of post-release mortality of white marlin released from circle hooks has been documented to be <0.02, but the associated physiological stress resulting from capture and handling techniques has not been characterized despite its importance for understanding the health of released fish. We examined the physiological response of 68 white marlin caught on circle hooks in the recreational fishery and followed the fate of 22 of these fish with pop-up satellite archival tags programmed to release after 30 days. Measures of plasma sodium, chloride, glucose and lactate concentrations taken from fish that were briefly and consistently (mean = 120 s, standard deviation = 40 s) removed from the water increased with angling time, but post-release mortality was inversely related to angling time. The probability of post-release mortality was predicted by elevated plasma potassium concentrations and was more than 10 times greater than has been previously reported for white marlin caught on circle hooks that were not removed from the water. This disparity in estimates of post-release mortality suggests that removal of fish from the water for physiological sampling greatly heightens stress, disrupts homeostasis and thus increases the probability of post-release mortality. Our results demonstrate that elevated concentrations of plasma potassium predict mortality in white marlin and that the probability of post-release mortality is highly dependent on post-capture handling procedures.

Optimum space shuttle launch times relative to natural environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, R. L.

1977-01-01

Three sets of meteorological criteria were analyzed to determine the probabilities of favorable launch and landing conditions. Probabilities were computed for every 3 hours on a yearly basis using 14 years of weather data. These temporal probability distributions, applicable to the three sets of weather criteria encompassing benign, moderate and severe weather conditions, were computed for both Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Edwards Air Force Base. In addition, conditional probabilities were computed for unfavorable weather conditions occurring after a delay which may or may not be due to weather conditions. Also, for KSC, the probabilities of favorable landing conditions at various times after favorable launch conditions have prevailed have been computed so that mission probabilities may be more accurately computed for those time periods when persistence strongly correlates weather conditions. Moreover, the probabilities and conditional probabilities of the occurrence of both favorable and unfavorable events for each individual criterion were computed to indicate the significance of each weather element to the overall result.

Rotation histories of the natural satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peale, S. J.

1977-01-01

Recent advances in the theory of rotation are combined with traditional approaches to study the rotational evolution of the 33 known natural satellites. A calculation similar to that reported by Burns and Safronov (1973) is applied to each satellite to obtain the characteristic time of decay of any wobble motion to smooth rotation about the principal axis of maximum moment of inertia. Stability criteria and capture probabilities are calculated for the 3/2 spin resonance. Results show that only the regular satellites and Iapetus, Hyperion, Triton, and the moon are tidally evolved. Of these, 13 have confirmed synchronous rotation periods; capture probabilities into the 3/2 resonance indicate that none of the remaining 10 should be captured in nonsynchronous, commensurate spin states. For the most part, the irregular satellites retain their original spins except for a relaxation to principal axis rotation. Tidal evolution of the obliquities of the satellites is evaluated in the framework of the generalization of Cassini's laws for the moon. Nearly resonant, forced librations in longitude of 4.8 and 0.5 deg are calculated on the basis of the observed shapes of Phobos and Deimos, respectively.

Capturing rogue waves by multi-point statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjihosseini, A.; Wächter, Matthias; Hoffmann, N. P.; Peinke, J.

2016-01-01

As an example of a complex system with extreme events, we investigate ocean wave states exhibiting rogue waves. We present a statistical method of data analysis based on multi-point statistics which for the first time allows the grasping of extreme rogue wave events in a highly satisfactory statistical manner. The key to the success of the approach is mapping the complexity of multi-point data onto the statistics of hierarchically ordered height increments for different time scales, for which we can show that a stochastic cascade process with Markov properties is governed by a Fokker-Planck equation. Conditional probabilities as well as the Fokker-Planck equation itself can be estimated directly from the available observational data. With this stochastic description surrogate data sets can in turn be generated, which makes it possible to work out arbitrary statistical features of the complex sea state in general, and extreme rogue wave events in particular. The results also open up new perspectives for forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme rogue wave events, and even for forecasting the occurrence of individual rogue waves based on precursory dynamics.

Microbiology studies in the Space Shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, G. R.

1976-01-01

Past space microbiology studies have evaluated three general areas: microbe detection in extraterrestrial materials; monitoring of autoflora and medically important species on crewmembers, equipment, and cabin air; and in vitro evaluations of isolated terrestrial species carried on manned and unmanned spaceflights. These areas are briefly reviewed to establish a basis for presenting probable experiment subjects applicable to the Space Shuttle era. Most extraterrestrial life detection studies involve visitations to other heavenly bodies. Although this is not applicable to the first series of Shuttle flights, attempts to capture meteors and spores in space could be important. Human pathogen and autoflora monitoring will become more important with increased variety among crewmembers. Inclusion of contaminated animal and plant specimens in the space lab will necessitate inflight evaluation of cross-contamination and infection potentials. The majority of Shuttle microbiology studies will doubtless fall into the third study area. Presence of a space lab will permit a whole range of experimentation under conditions similar to these experienced in earth-based laboratories. The recommendations of various study groups are analyzed, and probable inflight microbiological experiment areas are identified for the Life Sciences Shuttle Laboratory.

Evaluating a linearized Euler equations model for strong turbulence effects on sound propagation.

PubMed

Ehrhardt, Loïc; Cheinet, Sylvain; Juvé, Daniel; Blanc-Benon, Philippe

2013-04-01

Sound propagation outdoors is strongly affected by atmospheric turbulence. Under strongly perturbed conditions or long propagation paths, the sound fluctuations reach their asymptotic behavior, e.g., the intensity variance progressively saturates. The present study evaluates the ability of a numerical propagation model based on the finite-difference time-domain solving of the linearized Euler equations in quantitatively reproducing the wave statistics under strong and saturated intensity fluctuations. It is the continuation of a previous study where weak intensity fluctuations were considered. The numerical propagation model is presented and tested with two-dimensional harmonic sound propagation over long paths and strong atmospheric perturbations. The results are compared to quantitative theoretical or numerical predictions available on the wave statistics, including the log-amplitude variance and the probability density functions of the complex acoustic pressure. The match is excellent for the evaluated source frequencies and all sound fluctuations strengths. Hence, this model captures these many aspects of strong atmospheric turbulence effects on sound propagation. Finally, the model results for the intensity probability density function are compared with a standard fit by a generalized gamma function.

Delineating baseflow contribution areas for streams - A model and methods comparison.

PubMed

Chow, Reynold; Frind, Michael E; Frind, Emil O; Jones, Jon P; Sousa, Marcelo R; Rudolph, David L; Molson, John W; Nowak, Wolfgang

2016-12-01

This study addresses the delineation of areas that contribute baseflow to a stream reach, also known as stream capture zones. Such areas can be delineated using standard well capture zone delineation methods, with three important differences: (1) natural gradients are smaller compared to those produced by supply wells and are therefore subject to greater numerical errors, (2) stream discharge varies seasonally, and (3) stream discharge varies spatially. This study focuses on model-related uncertainties due to model characteristics, discretization schemes, delineation methods, and particle tracking algorithms. The methodology is applied to the Alder Creek watershed in southwestern Ontario. Four different model codes are compared: HydroGeoSphere, WATFLOW, MODFLOW, and FEFLOW. In addition, two delineation methods are compared: reverse particle tracking and reverse transport, where the latter considers local-scale parameter uncertainty by using a macrodispersion term to produce a capture probability plume. The results from this study indicate that different models can calibrate acceptably well to the same data and produce very similar distributions of hydraulic head, but can produce different capture zones. The stream capture zone is found to be highly sensitive to the particle tracking algorithm. It was also found that particle tracking by itself, if applied to complex systems such as the Alder Creek watershed, would require considerable subjective judgement in the delineation of stream capture zones. Reverse transport is an alternative and more reliable approach that provides probability intervals for the baseflow contribution areas, taking uncertainty into account. The two approaches can be used together to enhance the confidence in the final outcome. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

2016-04-01

Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model parameters, overly complex models should be avoided. A so called Markov Blanket approach aims at the identification of the most relevant factors and constructs a Bayesian network based on those findings. With our approach we want to exploit a major advantage of Bayesian networks which is their ability to consider dependencies not only pairwise, but to capture the joint effects and interactions of driving forces. Hence, the flood damage network does not only show the impact of precaution on the building damage separately, but also reveals the mutual effects of precaution and the quality of warning for a variety of flood settings. Thus, it allows for a consideration of changing conditions and different courses of action and forms a novel and valuable tool for decision support. This study is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research training program GRK 2043/1 "NatRiskChange - Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" at the University of Potsdam.

Lesser scaup breeding probability and female survival on the yukon flats, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, K.H.; Lindberg, M.S.; Schmutz, J.A.; Bertram, M.R.

2009-01-01

Information on the ecology of waterfowl breeding in the boreal forest is lacking, despite the boreal region's importance to continental waterfowl populations and to duck species that are currently declining, such as lesser scaup (Aythya affinis). We estimated breeding probability and breeding season survival of female lesser scaup on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in 2005 and 2006. We captured and marked 93 lesser scaup with radiotransmitters during prelaying and nesting periods. Although all marked lesser scaup females were paired throughout prelaying and incubation periods, we estimated breeding probability over both years as 0.12 (SE = 0.05, n = 67) using telemetry. Proportion of lesser scaup females undergoing rapid follicle growth at capture in 2006 was 0.46 (SE = 0.11, n = 37), based on concentration of yolk precursors in blood plasma. By combining methods based on telemetry, yolk precursors, and postovulatory follicles, we estimated maximum breeding probability as 0.68 (SE = 0.08, n = 37) in 2006. Notably, breeding probability was positively related to female body mass. Survival of female lesser scaup during the nesting and brood-rearing periods was 0.92 (SE = 0.05) in 2005 and 0.86 (SE = 0.08) in 2006. Our results suggest that breeding probability is lower than expected for lesser scaup. In addition, the implicit assumption of continental duck-monitoring programs that all paired females attempt to breed should be reevaluated. Recruitment estimates based on annual breeding-pair surveys may overestimate productivity of scaup pairs in the boreal forest. ?? The Wildlife Society.

EFFECTS OF TURBULENCE, ECCENTRICITY DAMPING, AND MIGRATION RATE ON THE CAPTURE OF PLANETS INTO MEAN MOTION RESONANCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ketchum, Jacob A.; Adams, Fred C.; Bloch, Anthony M.

2011-01-01

Pairs of migrating extrasolar planets often lock into mean motion resonance as they drift inward. This paper studies the convergent migration of giant planets (driven by a circumstellar disk) and determines the probability that they are captured into mean motion resonance. The probability that such planets enter resonance depends on the type of resonance, the migration rate, the eccentricity damping rate, and the amplitude of the turbulent fluctuations. This problem is studied both through direct integrations of the full three-body problem and via semi-analytic model equations. In general, the probability of resonance decreases with increasing migration rate, and with increasingmore » levels of turbulence, but increases with eccentricity damping. Previous work has shown that the distributions of orbital elements (eccentricity and semimajor axis) for observed extrasolar planets can be reproduced by migration models with multiple planets. However, these results depend on resonance locking, and this study shows that entry into-and maintenance of-mean motion resonance depends sensitively on the migration rate, eccentricity damping, and turbulence.« less

A spatiotemporal atlas of MR intensity, tissue probability and shape of the fetal brain with application to segmentation

PubMed Central

Habas, Piotr A.; Kim, Kio; Corbett-Detig, James M.; Rousseau, Francois; Glenn, Orit A.; Barkovich, A. James; Studholme, Colin

2010-01-01

Modeling and analysis of MR images of the developing human brain is a challenge due to rapid changes in brain morphology and morphometry. We present an approach to the construction of a spatiotemporal atlas of the fetal brain with temporal models of MR intensity, tissue probability and shape changes. This spatiotemporal model is created from a set of reconstructed MR images of fetal subjects with different gestational ages. Groupwise registration of manual segmentations and voxelwise nonlinear modeling allow us to capture the appearance, disappearance and spatial variation of brain structures over time. Applying this model to atlas-based segmentation, we generate age-specific MR templates and tissue probability maps and use them to initialize automatic tissue delineation in new MR images. The choice of model parameters and the final performance are evaluated using clinical MR scans of young fetuses with gestational ages ranging from 20.57 to 24.71 weeks. Experimental results indicate that quadratic temporal models can correctly capture growth-related changes in the fetal brain anatomy and provide improvement in accuracy of atlas-based tissue segmentation. PMID:20600970

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider

PubMed Central

Jónsson, Jón Einar; Gardarsson, Arnthor; Gill, Jennifer A.; Pétursdóttir, Una Krístín; Petersen, Aevar; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar

2013-01-01

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900–2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2–3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment. PMID:23805292

Subliminal Emotional Words Impact Syntactic Processing: Evidence from Performance and Event-Related Brain Potentials.

PubMed

Jiménez-Ortega, Laura; Espuny, Javier; de Tejada, Pilar Herreros; Vargas-Rivero, Carolina; Martín-Loeches, Manuel

2017-01-01

Recent studies demonstrate that syntactic processing can be affected by emotional information and that subliminal emotional information can also affect cognitive processes. In this study, we explore whether unconscious emotional information may also impact syntactic processing. In an Event-Related brain Potential (ERP) study, positive, neutral and negative subliminal adjectives were inserted within neutral sentences, just before the presentation of the supraliminal adjective. They could either be correct (50%) or contain a morphosyntactic violation (number or gender disagreements). Larger error rates were observed for incorrect sentences than for correct ones, in contrast to most studies using supraliminal information. Strikingly, emotional adjectives affected the conscious syntactic processing of sentences containing morphosyntactic anomalies. The neutral condition elicited left anterior negativity (LAN) followed by a P600 component. However, a lack of anterior negativity and an early P600 onset for the negative condition were found, probably as a result of the negative subliminal correct adjective capturing early syntactic resources. Positive masked adjectives in turn prompted an N400 component in response to morphosyntactic violations, probably reflecting the induction of a heuristic processing mode involving access to lexico-semantic information to solve agreement anomalies. Our results add to recent evidence on the impact of emotional information on syntactic processing, while showing that this can occur even when the reader is unaware of the emotional stimuli.

Subliminal Emotional Words Impact Syntactic Processing: Evidence from Performance and Event-Related Brain Potentials

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Ortega, Laura; Espuny, Javier; de Tejada, Pilar Herreros; Vargas-Rivero, Carolina; Martín-Loeches, Manuel

2017-01-01

Recent studies demonstrate that syntactic processing can be affected by emotional information and that subliminal emotional information can also affect cognitive processes. In this study, we explore whether unconscious emotional information may also impact syntactic processing. In an Event-Related brain Potential (ERP) study, positive, neutral and negative subliminal adjectives were inserted within neutral sentences, just before the presentation of the supraliminal adjective. They could either be correct (50%) or contain a morphosyntactic violation (number or gender disagreements). Larger error rates were observed for incorrect sentences than for correct ones, in contrast to most studies using supraliminal information. Strikingly, emotional adjectives affected the conscious syntactic processing of sentences containing morphosyntactic anomalies. The neutral condition elicited left anterior negativity (LAN) followed by a P600 component. However, a lack of anterior negativity and an early P600 onset for the negative condition were found, probably as a result of the negative subliminal correct adjective capturing early syntactic resources. Positive masked adjectives in turn prompted an N400 component in response to morphosyntactic violations, probably reflecting the induction of a heuristic processing mode involving access to lexico-semantic information to solve agreement anomalies. Our results add to recent evidence on the impact of emotional information on syntactic processing, while showing that this can occur even when the reader is unaware of the emotional stimuli. PMID:28487640

Analysis of daylight performance of solar light pipes influenced by size and shape of sunlight captures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yanpeng; Jin, Rendong; Zhang, Wenming; Liu, Li; Zou, Dachao

2009-11-01

Experimental investigations on three different sunlight captures with diameter 150mm, 212mm, 300mm were carried out under different conditions such as sunny conditions, cloudy conditions and overcast conditions and the two different size solar light pipes with diameter 360mm and 160mm under sunny conditions. The illuminance in the middle of the sunlight capture have relationship with its size, but not linear. To improve the efficiency of the solar light pipes, the structure and the performance of the sunlight capture must be enhanced. For example, University of Science and Technology Beijing Gymnasium, Beijing 2008 Olympic events of Judo and Taekwondo, 148 solar light pipes were installed with the diameter 530mm for each light pipe. Two sunlight captures with different shape were installed and tested. From the measuring results of the illuminance on the work plane of the gymnasium, the improvement sunlight captures have better effects with the size of augmenting and the machining of the internal surface at the same time, so that the refraction increased and the efficiency of solar light pipes improved. The better effects of supplementary lighting for the gymnasium have been achieved.

Modeling association among demographic parameters in analysis of open population capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Link, William A; Barker, Richard J

2005-03-01

We present a hierarchical extension of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for open population capture-recapture data. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture. The parameter set includes capture probabilities, survival rates, and birth rates. The survival rates and birth rates are treated as a random sample from a bivariate distribution, thus the model explicitly incorporates correlation in these demographic rates. A key feature of the model is that the likelihood function, which includes a CJS model factor, is expressed entirely in terms of identifiable parameters; losses on capture can be factored out of the model. Since the computational complexity of classical likelihood methods is prohibitive, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo in a Bayesian analysis. We describe an efficient candidate-generation scheme for Metropolis-Hastings sampling of CJS models and extensions. The procedure is illustrated using mark-recapture data for the moth Gonodontis bidentata.

Students' Understanding of Conditional Probability on Entering University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reaburn, Robyn

2013-01-01

An understanding of conditional probability is essential for students of inferential statistics as it is used in Null Hypothesis Tests. Conditional probability is also used in Bayes' theorem, in the interpretation of medical screening tests and in quality control procedures. This study examines the understanding of conditional probability of…

Distribution, density, and biomass of introduced small mammals in the southern mariana islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiewel, A.S.; Adams, A.A.Y.; Rodda, G.H.

2009-01-01

Although it is generally accepted that introduced small mammals have detrimental effects on island ecology, our understanding of these effects is frequently limited by incomplete knowledge of small mammal distribution, density, and biomass. Such information is especially critical in the Mariana Islands, where small mammal density is inversely related to effectiveness of Brown Tree Snake (Boiga irregularis) control tools, such as mouse-attractant traps. We used mark-recapture sampling to determine introduced small mammal distribution, density, and biomass in the major habitats of Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian, including grassland, Leucaena forest, and native limestone forest. Of the five species captured, Rattus diardii (sensu Robins et al. 2007) was most common across habitats and islands. In contrast, Mus musculus was rarely captured at forested sites, Suncus murinus was not captured on Rota, and R. exulans and R. norvegicus captures were uncommon. Modeling indicated that neophobia, island, sex, reproductive status, and rain amount influenced R. diardii capture probability, whereas time, island, and capture heterogeneity influenced S. murinus and M. musculus capture probability. Density and biomass were much greater on Rota, Saipan, and Tinian than on Guam, most likely a result of Brown Tree Snake predation pressure on the latter island. Rattus diardii and M. musculus density and biomass were greatest in grassland, whereas S. murinus density and biomass were greatest in Leucaena forest. The high densities documented during this research suggest that introduced small mammals (especially R. diardii) are impacting abundance and diversity of the native fauna and flora of the Mariana Islands. Further, Brown Tree Snake control and management tools that rely on mouse attractants will be less effective on Rota, Saipan, and Tinian than on Guam. If the Brown Tree Snake becomes established on these islands, high-density introduced small mammal populations will likely facilitate and support a high-density Brown Tree Snake population, even as native species are reduced or extirpated. ?? 2009 by University of Hawai'i Press All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal Brook Trout density dynamics: Implications for conservation, management, and monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Jefferson T. Deweber,; Jason Detar,; Kristine, David; John A. Sweka,

2014-01-01

Many potential stressors to aquatic environments operate over large spatial scales, prompting the need to assess and monitor both site-specific and regional dynamics of fish populations. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability in density and capture probability of age-1 and older Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis from three-pass removal data collected at 291 sites over a 37-year time period (1975–2011) in Pennsylvania streams. There was high between-year variability in density, with annual posterior means ranging from 2.1 to 10.2 fish/100 m2; however, there was no significant long-term linear trend. Brook Trout density was positively correlated with elevation and negatively correlated with percent developed land use in the network catchment. Probability of capture did not vary substantially across sites or years but was negatively correlated with mean stream width. Because of the low spatiotemporal variation in capture probability and a strong correlation between first-pass CPUE (catch/min) and three-pass removal density estimates, the use of an abundance index based on first-pass CPUE could represent a cost-effective alternative to conducting multiple-pass removal sampling for some Brook Trout monitoring and assessment objectives. Single-pass indices may be particularly relevant for monitoring objectives that do not require precise site-specific estimates, such as regional monitoring programs that are designed to detect long-term linear trends in density.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenberg, Cathryn, H.; Tanner, George, W.

ABSTRACT: We used data from 10 years of continuous, concurrent monitoring of oak toads at eight isolated, ephemeral ponds in Florida longleaf pine-wiregrass uplands to address: (1) did weather variables affect movement patterns of oak toads?; (2) did pond hydrology and the condition of surrounding uplands affect pond selection by adults or juvenile recruitment?; (3) were population trends evident?; and (4) did a classical metapopulation model best represent their population ecology? Of 4076 oak toads captured, 92.2% were adults. Substantial (n _ 30 exiting juveniles) recruitment occurred only three times (once each at three ponds during two years). Males outnumberedmore » females (average for all years 2.3:1). Most captures occurred during May–September. Adult captures during June–August increased with heavier rainfall but were not influenced by the durations of preceding dry periods. Movement patterns of metamorphs suggested that oak toads emigrated when moisture conditions become favorable. Pond use by adults was correlated with maximum change in pond depth (May–September). Juvenile recruitment was negatively correlated with minimum pond depth and the number of weeks since a pond was last dry, and positively correlated with the maximum number of weeks a pond held water continuously. The number of breeding adults and juvenile recruitment were highest at ponds within the hardwood-invaded upland matrix. The direction of most immigrations and emigrations was nonrandom, but movement occurred from all directions, and the mean direction of pond entry and exit did not always correspond. A total of 21.1% of individuals was recaptured; 13.3% of first captures were recaptured during the same year, and 7.7% during a subsequent year. Only 1.9% of captured oak toads moved among ponds, mostly within a distance of 132 m. We did not detect adult population trends over the 10- yr studied. Presence or absence at ponds in any given year was a poor indicator of overall use. We saw little evidence of local extinction or ‘‘rescue,’’ but were unable to determine whether juveniles returned to natal ponds or colonized new ponds for breeding as adults. Oak toad conservation can best be ensured by maintaining multiple ponds within a landscape to increase the probability of recruitment within the landscape neighborhood during at least some years and at some ponds, and to increase the likelihood of interpond movement.« less

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitts, M. A.; Kerstman, E.; Butler, D. J.; Walton, M. E.; Minard, C. G.; Saile, L. G.; Toy, S.; Myers, J.

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

The calculation of neutron capture gamma-ray yields for space shielding applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yost, K. J.

1972-01-01

The application of nuclear models to the calculation of neutron capture and inelastic scattering gamma yields is discussed. The gamma ray cascade model describes the cascade process in terms of parameters which either: (1) embody statistical assumptions regarding electric and magnetic multipole transition strengths, level densities, and spin and parity distributions or (2) are fixed by experiment such as measured energies, spin and parity values, and transition probabilities for low lying states.

Trap configuration and spacing influences parameter estimates in spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

An increasing number of studies employ spatial capture-recapture models to estimate population size, but there has been limited research on how different spatial sampling designs and trap configurations influence parameter estimators. Spatial capture-recapture models provide an advantage over non-spatial models by explicitly accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities among individuals that arise due to the spatial organization of individuals relative to sampling devices. We simulated black bear (Ursus americanus) populations and spatial capture-recapture data to evaluate the influence of trap configuration and trap spacing on estimates of population size and a spatial scale parameter, sigma, that relates to home range size. We varied detection probability and home range size, and considered three trap configurations common to large-mammal mark-recapture studies: regular spacing, clustered, and a temporal sequence of different cluster configurations (i.e., trap relocation). We explored trap spacing and number of traps per cluster by varying the number of traps. The clustered arrangement performed well when detection rates were low, and provides for easier field implementation than the sequential trap arrangement. However, performance differences between trap configurations diminished as home range size increased. Our simulations suggest it is important to consider trap spacing relative to home range sizes, with traps ideally spaced no more than twice the spatial scale parameter. While spatial capture-recapture models can accommodate different sampling designs and still estimate parameters with accuracy and precision, our simulations demonstrate that aspects of sampling design, namely trap configuration and spacing, must consider study area size, ranges of individual movement, and home range sizes in the study population.

How many tigers Panthera tigris are there in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand? An estimate using photographic capture-recapture sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simcharoen, S.; Pattanavibool, A.; Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.

2007-01-01

We used capture-recapture analyses to estimate the density of a tiger Panthera tigris population in the tropical forests of Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand, from photographic capture histories of 15 distinct individuals. The closure test results (z = 0.39, P = 0.65) provided some evidence in support of the demographic closure assumption. Fit of eight plausible closed models to the data indicated more support for model Mh, which incorporates individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities. This model generated an average capture probability $\\hat p$ = 0.42 and an abundance estimate of $\\widehat{N}(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{N}])$ = 19 (9.65) tigers. The sampled area of $\\widehat{A}(W)(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{A}(W)])$ = 477.2 (58.24) km2 yielded a density estimate of $\\widehat{D}(\\widehat{SE}[\\widehat{D}])$ = 3.98 (0.51) tigers per 100 km2. Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary could therefore hold 113 tigers and the entire Western Forest Complex c. 720 tigers. Although based on field protocols that constrained us to use sub-optimal analyses, this estimated tiger density is comparable to tiger densities in Indian reserves that support moderate prey abundances. However, tiger densities in well-protected Indian reserves with high prey abundances are three times higher. If given adequate protection we believe that the Western Forest Complex of Thailand could potentially harbour >2,000 wild tigers, highlighting its importance for global tiger conservation. The monitoring approaches we recommend here would be useful for managing this tiger population.

CPROB: A COMPUTATIONAL TOOL FOR CONDUCTING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Conditional probability analysis measures the probability of observing one event given that another event has occurred. In an environmental context, conditional probability analysis helps assess the association between an environmental contaminant (i.e. the stressor) and the ec...

Categorical counting.

PubMed

Fetterman, J Gregor; Killeen, P Richard

2010-09-01

Pigeons pecked on three keys, responses to one of which could be reinforced after a few pecks, to a second key after a somewhat larger number of pecks, and to a third key after the maximum pecking requirement. The values of the pecking requirements and the proportion of trials ending with reinforcement were varied. Transits among the keys were an orderly function of peck number, and showed approximately proportional changes with changes in the pecking requirements, consistent with Weber's law. Standard deviations of the switch points between successive keys increased more slowly within a condition than across conditions. Changes in reinforcement probability produced changes in the location of the psychometric functions that were consistent with models of timing. Analyses of the number of pecks emitted and the duration of the pecking sequences demonstrated that peck number was the primary determinant of choice, but that passage of time also played some role. We capture the basic results with a standard model of counting, which we qualify to account for the secondary experiments. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.

2017-12-01

The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source fault would be performed in order to examine the amount of the displacement and conditional probability quantitatively.

Comparative study of the double-K -shell-vacancy production in single- and double-electron-capture decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratkevich, S. S.; Gangapshev, A. M.; Gavrilyuk, Yu. M.; Karpeshin, F. F.; Kazalov, V. V.; Kuzminov, V. V.; Panasenko, S. I.; Trzhaskovskaya, M. B.; Yakimenko, S. P.

2017-12-01

Background: A double-K -electron capture is a rare nuclear-atomic process in which two K electrons are captured simultaneously from the atomic shell. A "hollow atom" is created as a result of this process. In single-K -shell electron-capture decays, there is a small probability that the second electron in the K shell is excited to an unoccupied level or can (mostly) be ejected to the continuum. In either case, a double vacancy is created in the K shell. The relaxation of the double-K -shell vacancy, accompanied by the emission of two K -fluorescence photons, makes it possible to perform experimental studies of such rare processes with the large-volume proportional gas chamber. Purpose: The purpose of the present analysis is to estimate a double-K -shell vacancy creation probability per K -shell electron capture PK K of 81Kr, as well as to measure the half-life of 78Kr relative to 2 ν 2 K capture. Method: Time-resolving current pulse from the large low-background proportional counter (LPC), filled with the krypton sample, was applied to detect triple coincidences of "shaked" electrons and two fluorescence photons. Results: The number of K -shell vacancies per the K -electron capture, produced as a result of the shake-off process, has been measured for the decay of 81Kr. The probability for this decay was found to be PK K=(5.7 ±0.8 ) ×10-5 with a systematic error of (ΔPKK) syst=±0.4 ×10-5 . For the 78Kr(2 ν 2 K ) decay, the comparative study of single- and double-capture decays allowed us to obtain the signal-to-background ratio up to 15/1. The half-life T1/2 2 ν 2 K(g .s .→g .s .) =[1 .9-0.7+1.3(stat) ±0.3 (syst) ] ×1022 y is determined from the analysis of data that have been accumulated over 782 days of live measurements in the experiment that used samples consisted of 170.6 g of 78Kr. Conclusions: The data collected during low background measurements using the LPC were analyzed to search the rare atomic and nuclear processes. We have determined PKK exp for the E C decay of 81Kr, which are in satisfactory agreement with Z-2 dependence of PK K predicted by Primakoff and Porter. This made possible to more accurately determine the background contribution in the energy region of our interest for the search for the 2 K capture in 78Kr. The general procedure of data analysis allowed us to determine the half-life of 78Kr relative to 2 ν 2 K transition with a greater statistical accuracy than in our previous works.

Neutron-capture element abundances in the planetary nebula NGC 5315 from deep optical and near-infrared spectrophotometry★†

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madonna, S.; García-Rojas, J.; Sterling, N. C.; Delgado-Inglada, G.; Mesa-Delgado, A.; Luridiana, V.; Roederer, I. U.; Mashburn, A. L.

2017-10-01

We analyse the chemical composition of the planetary nebula (PN) NGC 5315, through high-resolution (R ˜ 40000) optical spectroscopy with Ultraviolet-Visual Echelle Spectrograph at the Very Large Telescope, and medium-resolution (R ˜ 4800) near-infrared spectroscopy with Folded-port InfraRed Echellette at Magellan Baade Telescope, covering a wide spectral range from 0.31 to 2.50 μm. The main aim of this work is to investigate neutron (n)-capture element abundances to study the operation of the slow n-capture ('s-process') in the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) progenitor of NGC 5315. We detect more than 700 emission lines, including ions of the n-capture elements Se, Kr, Xe and possibly Br. We compute physical conditions from a large number of diagnostic line ratios, and derive ionic abundances for species with available atomic data. The total abundances are computed using recent ionization correction factors (ICFs) or by summing ionic abundances. Total abundances of common elements are in good agreement with previous work on this object. Based on our abundance analysis of NGC 5315, including the lack of s-process enrichment, we speculate that the most probable evolutionary scenario is that the progenitor star is in a binary system as hinted at by radial velocity studies, and interactions with its companion truncated the AGB before s-process enrichment could occur. However there are other two possible scenarios for its evolution, that cannot be ruled out: (I) the progenitor is a low-mass single star that did not undergo third dredge-up; (II) the progenitor star of NGC 5315 had an initial mass of 3-5 M⊙, and any s-process enhancements were heavily diluted by the massive envelope during the AGB phase.

Aquifer tests and simulation of ground-water flow in Triassic sedimentary rocks near Colmar, Bucks and Montgomery Counties, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.; Bird, Philip H.

2003-01-01

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to evaluate ground-water flow in Triassic sedimentary rocks near Colmar, in Bucks and Montgomery Counties, Pa. The study was conducted to help the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency evaluate remediation alternatives at the North Penn Area 5 Superfund Site near Colmar, where ground water has been contaminated by volatile organic solvents (primarily trichloroethene). The investigation focused on determining the (1) drawdown caused by separately pumping North PennWater Authority wells NP–21 and NP–87, (2) probable paths of groundwater movement under present-day (2000) conditions (with NP–21 discontinued), and (3) areas contributing recharge to wells if pumping from wells NP-21 or NP–87 were restarted and new recovery wells were installed. Drawdown was calculated from water levels measured in observation wells during aquifer tests of NP–21 and NP–87. The direction of ground-water flow was estimated by use of a three-dimensional ground-water-flow model.Aquifer tests were conducted by pumping NP–21 for about 7 days at 257 gallons per minute in June 2000 and NP–87 for 3 days at 402 gallons per minute in May 2002. Drawdown was measured in 45 observation wells during the NP–21 test and 35 observation wells during the NP–87 test. Drawdown in observation wells ranged from 0 to 6.8 feet at the end of the NP–21 test and 0.5 to 12 feet at the end of the NP–87 test. The aquifer tests showed that ground-water levels declined mostly in observation wells that were completed in the geologic units penetrated by the pumped wells. Because the geologic units dip about 27 degrees to the northwest, shallow wells up dip to the southeast of the pumped well showed a good hydraulic connection to the geologic units stressed by pumping. Most observation wells down dip from the pumping well penetrated units higher in the stratigraphic section that were not well connected to the units stressed by pumping. The best hydraulic connection to the pumped wells was indicated by large drawdown in observation wells that penetrate the water-bearing unit encountered below 400 feet below land surface in wells NP–21 and NP–87. The hydraulic connection between wells NP–21 (or NP–87) and observation wells in the southern area of ground-water contamination near the BAE Systems facility is good because the observation wells probably penetrate this water-bearing unit.A 3-dimensional, finite-difference, groundwater- flow model was used to simulate flow paths and areas contributing recharge to wells for current (2000) conditions of pumping in the Colmar area and for hypothetical situations of pumping suggested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that might be used for remediation. Simulations indicate that under current conditions, ground water in the northern area of contamination near the former Stabilus facility moves to the northwest and discharges mostly to West Branch Neshaminy Creek; in the southern area of contamination near BAE Systems facility, ground water probably moves west and discharges to a tributary of West Branch Neshaminy Creek near well NP–21. Model simulations indicate that if NP–21 or NP–87 are pumped at 400 gallons per minute, groundwater recharge is likely captured from the southern area of contamination, but ground-water recharge from the northern area of contamination is less likely to be captured by the pumping. Simulations also indicate that pumping of a new recovery well near BAE Systems facility at 8 gallons per minute and two new recovery wells near the former Stabilus facility at a total of about 30 gallons per minute probably would capture most of the ground-water recharge in the areas where contamination is greatest.

Approaches to quantifying long-term continental shelf sediment transport with an example from the Northern California STRESS mid-shelf site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Courtney K.; Wiberg, Patricia L.

1997-09-01

Modeling shelf sediment transport rates and bed reworking depths is problematic when the wave and current forcing conditions are not precisely known, as is usually the case when long-term sedimentation patterns are of interest. Two approaches to modeling sediment transport under such circumstances are considered. The first relies on measured or simulated time series of flow conditions to drive model calculations. The second approach uses as model input probability distribution functions of bottom boundary layer flow conditions developed from wave and current measurements. Sediment transport rates, frequency of bed resuspension by waves and currents, and bed reworking calculated using the two methods are compared at the mid-shelf STRESS (Sediment TRansport on Shelves and Slopes) site on the northern California continental shelf. Current, wave and resuspension measurements at the site are used to generate model inputs and test model results. An 11-year record of bottom wave orbital velocity, calculated from surface wave spectra measured by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) Buoy 46013 and verified against bottom tripod measurements, is used to characterize the frequency and duration of wave-driven transport events and to estimate the joint probability distribution of wave orbital velocity and period. A 109-day record of hourly current measurements 10 m above bottom is used to estimate the probability distribution of bottom boundary layer current velocity at this site and to develop an auto-regressive model to simulate current velocities for times when direct measurements of currents are not available. Frequency of transport, the maximum volume of suspended sediment, and average flux calculated using measured wave and simulated current time series agree well with values calculated using measured time series. A probabilistic approach is more amenable to calculations over time scales longer than existing wave records, but it tends to underestimate net transport because it does not capture the episodic nature of transport events. Both methods enable estimates to be made of the uncertainty in transport quantities that arise from an incomplete knowledge of the specific timing of wave and current conditions. 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

Woodcock brood ecology in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dwyer, T.J.; Derleth, E.L.; McAuley, D.G.

1982-01-01

Captures of 102 American woodcock (Philohela minor) broods, including 338 chicks, from 1977 to 1980 provided data on age-related production by breeding females and on growth and survival of chicks. Although broods of second-year females are smaller and hatch at slightly later dates and the growth of the chicks is slower than that of broods of after-second-year hens, we could detect no difference in survival of the chicks. Yearly variation in the sex ratio of fledged young was probably the result of selection for or against larger female chicks during different environmental conditions. Broodmates associate with each other throughout the summer, and there are differences in habitat preferences between young (1-5 days old) and older (> 5 days old) broods. Older broods prefer more open, mature forest stands with fewer trees per hectare.

Trade-off between information and disturbance in qubit thermometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seveso, Luigi; Paris, Matteo G. A.

2018-03-01

We address the trade-off between information and disturbance in qubit thermometry from the perspective of quantum estimation theory. Given a quantum measurement, we quantify information via the Fisher information of the measurement and disturbance via four different figures of merit, which capture different aspects (statistical, thermodynamical, geometrical) of the trade-off. For each disturbance measure, the efficient measurements, i.e., the measurements that introduce a disturbance not greater than any other measurement extracting the same amount of information, are determined explicitly. The family of efficient measurements varies with the choice of the disturbance measure. On the other hand, commutativity between the elements of the probability operator-valued measure (POVM) and the equilibrium state of the thermometer is a necessary condition for efficiency with respect to any figure of disturbance.

Implicit prosody mining based on the human eye image capture technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Pei-pei; Liu, Feng

2013-08-01

The technology of eye tracker has become the main methods of analyzing the recognition issues in human-computer interaction. Human eye image capture is the key problem of the eye tracking. Based on further research, a new human-computer interaction method introduced to enrich the form of speech synthetic. We propose a method of Implicit Prosody mining based on the human eye image capture technology to extract the parameters from the image of human eyes when reading, control and drive prosody generation in speech synthesis, and establish prosodic model with high simulation accuracy. Duration model is key issues for prosody generation. For the duration model, this paper put forward a new idea for obtaining gaze duration of eyes when reading based on the eye image capture technology, and synchronous controlling this duration and pronunciation duration in speech synthesis. The movement of human eyes during reading is a comprehensive multi-factor interactive process, such as gaze, twitching and backsight. Therefore, how to extract the appropriate information from the image of human eyes need to be considered and the gaze regularity of eyes need to be obtained as references of modeling. Based on the analysis of current three kinds of eye movement control model and the characteristics of the Implicit Prosody reading, relative independence between speech processing system of text and eye movement control system was discussed. It was proved that under the same text familiarity condition, gaze duration of eyes when reading and internal voice pronunciation duration are synchronous. The eye gaze duration model based on the Chinese language level prosodic structure was presented to change previous methods of machine learning and probability forecasting, obtain readers' real internal reading rhythm and to synthesize voice with personalized rhythm. This research will enrich human-computer interactive form, and will be practical significance and application prospect in terms of disabled assisted speech interaction. Experiments show that Implicit Prosody mining based on the human eye image capture technology makes the synthesized speech has more flexible expressions.

Communities that thrive in extreme conditions captured from a freshwater lake.

PubMed

Low-Décarie, Etienne; Fussmann, Gregor F; Dumbrell, Alex J; Bell, Graham

2016-09-01

Organisms that can grow in extreme conditions would be expected to be confined to extreme environments. However, we were able to capture highly productive communities of algae and bacteria capable of growing in acidic (pH 2), basic (pH 12) and saline (40 ppt) conditions from an ordinary freshwater lake. Microbial communities may thus include taxa that are highly productive in conditions that are far outside the range of conditions experienced in their host ecosystem. The organisms we captured were not obligate extremophiles, but were capable of growing in both extreme and benign conditions. The ability to grow in extreme conditions may thus be a common functional attribute in microbial communities. © 2016 The Author(s).

On the dynamics of stream piracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goren, L.; Willett, S. D.

2012-04-01

Drainage network reorganization by stream piracy is invoked repeatedly to explain the morphology of unique drainage patterns and as a possible mechanism inducing abrupt variations of sediment accumulation rates. However, direct evidence of stream piracy is usually rare, and is highly interpretation dependent. As a first step in assessing how probable capture events are and establishing the conditions that favor stream piracy versus the those that favor stable landscapes, we formulate analytically the physics of divide migration and capture events and study this formulation from a dynamical system point of view. The formulation is based on a one-dimensional topographic cross section between two channels that share a water divide. Two hillslope profiles diverge from the divide and drain into two fluvial bedrock tributaries, whose erosion rate is controlled by a stream power law. The rate of erosion at the bounding channels is thus a function of the upstream drainage area and local slope. A tectonically induced downward perturbation of the elevation of one of the bounding channels lowers the channel slope but at the same time increases the drainage area due to outward migration of the water divide. The changes in slope and area have opposing effect on the erosion rate at the bounding channels, so that the perturbation may either grow or be damped. We define the geomorphic and tectonic parameters that control the behavior of the system and find the regimes that lead to stable landscapes and to capture events.

Effects of footwear and stride length on metatarsal strains and failure in running.

PubMed

Firminger, Colin R; Fung, Anita; Loundagin, Lindsay L; Edwards, W Brent

2017-11-01

The metatarsal bones of the foot are particularly susceptible to stress fracture owing to the high strains they experience during the stance phase of running. Shoe cushioning and stride length reduction represent two potential interventions to decrease metatarsal strain and thus stress fracture risk. Fourteen male recreational runners ran overground at a 5-km pace while motion capture and plantar pressure data were collected during four experimental conditions: traditional shoe at preferred and 90% preferred stride length, and minimalist shoe at preferred and 90% preferred stride length. Combined musculoskeletal - finite element modeling based on motion analysis and computed tomography data were used to quantify metatarsal strains and the probability of failure was determined using stress-life predictions. No significant interactions between footwear and stride length were observed. Running in minimalist shoes increased strains for all metatarsals by 28.7% (SD 6.4%; p<0.001) and probability of failure for metatarsals 2-4 by 17.3% (SD 14.3%; p≤0.005). Running at 90% preferred stride length decreased strains for metatarsal 4 by 4.2% (SD 2.0%; p≤0.007), and no differences in probability of failure were observed. Significant increases in metatarsal strains and the probability of failure were observed for recreational runners acutely transitioning to minimalist shoes. Running with a 10% reduction in stride length did not appear to be a beneficial technique for reducing the risk of metatarsal stress fracture, however the increased number of loading cycles for a given distance was not detrimental either. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Habitat selection by green turtles in a spatially heterogeneous benthic landscape in Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fujisaki, Ikuko; Hart, Kristen M.; Sartain-Iverson, Autumn R.

2016-01-01

We examined habitat selection by green turtles Chelonia mydas at Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida, USA. We tracked 15 turtles (6 females and 9 males) using platform transmitter terminals (PTTs); 13 of these turtles were equipped with additional acoustic transmitters. Location data by PTTs comprised periods of 40 to 226 d in varying months from 2009 to 2012. Core areas were concentrated in shallow water (mean bathymetry depth of 7.7 m) with a comparably dense coverage of seagrass; however, the utilization distribution overlap index indicated a low degree of habitat sharing. The probability of detecting a turtle on an acoustic receiver was inversely associated with the distance from the receiver to turtle capture sites and was lower in shallower water. The estimated daily detection probability of a single turtle at a given acoustic station throughout the acoustic array was small (<0.1 in any year), and that of multiple turtle detections was even smaller. However, the conditional probability of multiple turtle detections, given at least one turtle detection at a receiver, was much higher despite the small number of tagged turtles in each year (n = 1 to 5). Also, multiple detections of different turtles at a receiver frequently occurred within a few minutes (40%, or 164 of 415, occurred within 1 min). Our numerical estimates of core area overlap, co-occupancy probabilities, and habitat characterization for green turtles could be used to guide conservation of the area to sustain the population of this species.

Heterozygosity-fitness correlations in a wild mammal population: accounting for parental and environmental effects.

PubMed

Annavi, Geetha; Newman, Christopher; Buesching, Christina D; Macdonald, David W; Burke, Terry; Dugdale, Hannah L

2014-06-01

HFCs (heterozygosity-fitness correlations) measure the direct relationship between an individual's genetic diversity and fitness. The effects of parental heterozygosity and the environment on HFCs are currently under-researched. We investigated these in a high-density U.K. population of European badgers (Meles meles), using a multimodel capture-mark-recapture framework and 35 microsatellite loci. We detected interannual variation in first-year, but not adult, survival probability. Adult females had higher annual survival probabilities than adult males. Cubs with more heterozygous fathers had higher first-year survival, but only in wetter summers; there was no relationship with individual or maternal heterozygosity. Moist soil conditions enhance badger food supply (earthworms), improving survival. In dryer years, higher indiscriminate mortality rates appear to mask differential heterozygosity-related survival effects. This paternal interaction was significant in the most supported model; however, the model-averaged estimate had a relative importance of 0.50 and overlapped zero slightly. First-year survival probabilities were not correlated with the inbreeding coefficient (f); however, small sample sizes limited the power to detect inbreeding depression. Correlations between individual heterozygosity and inbreeding were weak, in line with published meta-analyses showing that HFCs tend to be weak. We found support for general rather than local heterozygosity effects on first-year survival probability, and g2 indicated that our markers had power to detect inbreeding. We emphasize the importance of assessing how environmental stressors can influence the magnitude and direction of HFCs and of considering how parental genetic diversity can affect fitness-related traits, which could play an important role in the evolution of mate choice.

A case study employing operant conditioning to reduce stress of capture for red-bellied tamarins (Saguinus labiatus).

PubMed

Owen, Yvonne; Amory, Jonathan R

2011-01-01

Traditional techniques used to capture New World monkeys, such as net capture, can induce high levels of acute stress detrimental to welfare. Alternatively, training nonhuman animals via operant conditioning to voluntarily participate in husbandry and/or veterinary practices is accepted as a humane process that can reduce stress and improve welfare. This study details the use of operant conditioning using positive reinforcement training (PRT) and target training to train a family of 5 captive red-bellied tamarins (Saguinus labiatus) in a wildlife park to voluntarily enter a transportation box and remain calm for 1 min after 54 training sessions. Observations of 2 unrelated net-capture processes provided measures of locomotion and vocalizations as indicators of stress behavior that were compared with those of the trained tamarins. Net-captured monkeys exhibited rapid erratic locomotion and emitted long, high-frequency vocalizations during capture whereas the trained tamarins exhibited minimal locomotion and emitted only 4 brief vocalizations (root mean square 35 dB) during capture. This indicates that the use of PRT considerably reduced potential for stress and improved welfare during the capture and containment of the tamarins. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Probability elicitation to inform early health economic evaluations of new medical technologies: a case study in heart failure disease management.

PubMed

Cao, Qi; Postmus, Douwe; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

2013-06-01

Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probability elicitation with early health economic modeling. The technology considered was a novel point-of-care testing device in heart failure disease management. First, we developed a continuous-time Markov model to represent the patients' disease progression under the current care setting. Next, we identified the model parameters that are likely to change after the introduction of the new device and interviewed three cardiologists to capture the probability distributions of these parameters. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the commercial headroom available per measurement by propagating the uncertainty in the model inputs to uncertainty in modeled outcomes. For a willingness-to-pay value of €10,000 per life-year, the median headroom available per measurement was €1.64 (interquartile range €0.05-€3.16) when the measurement frequency was assumed to be daily. In the subsequently conducted sensitivity analysis, this median value increased to a maximum of €57.70 for different combinations of the willingness-to-pay threshold and the measurement frequency. Probability elicitation can successfully be combined with early health economic modeling to obtain the probability distribution of the headroom available to a new medical technology. Subsequently feeding this distribution into a product investment evaluation method enables stakeholders to make more informed decisions regarding to which markets a currently available product prototype should be targeted. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Probability Theory Plus Noise: Descriptive Estimation and Inferential Judgment.

PubMed

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2018-01-01

We describe a computational model of two central aspects of people's probabilistic reasoning: descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model assumes that people's reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory, but it is subject to random noise. This random noise has a regressive effect in descriptive probability estimation, moving probability estimates away from normative probabilities and toward the center of the probability scale. This random noise has an anti-regressive effect in inferential judgement, however. These regressive and anti-regressive effects explain various reliable and systematic biases seen in people's descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model predicts that these contrary effects will tend to cancel out in tasks that involve both descriptive estimation and inferential judgement, leading to unbiased responses in those tasks. We test this model by applying it to one such task, described by Gallistel et al. ). Participants' median responses in this task were unbiased, agreeing with normative probability theory over the full range of responses. Our model captures the pattern of unbiased responses in this task, while simultaneously explaining systematic biases away from normatively correct probabilities seen in other tasks. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Role of clay minerals in the formation of atmospheric aggregates of Saharan dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuadros, Javier; Diaz-Hernandez, José L.; Sanchez-Navas, Antonio; Garcia-Casco, Antonio

2015-11-01

Saharan dust can travel long distances in different directions across the Atlantic and Europe, sometimes in episodes of high dust concentration. In recent years it has been discovered that Saharan dust aerosols can aggregate into large, approximately spherical particles of up to 100 μm generated within raindrops that then evaporate, so that the aggregate deposition takes place most times in dry conditions. These aerosol aggregates are an interesting phenomenon resulting from the interaction of mineral aerosols and atmospheric conditions. They have been termed "iberulites" due to their discovery and description from aerosol deposits in the Iberian Peninsula. Here, these aggregates are further investigated, in particular the role of the clay minerals in the aggregation process of aerosol particles. Iberulites, and common aerosol particles for reference, were studied from the following periods or single dust events and locations: June 1998 in Tenerife, Canary Islands; June 2001 to August 2002, Granada, Spain; 13-20 August 2012, Granada; and 1-6 June 2014, Granada. Their mineralogy, chemistry and texture were analysed using X-ray diffraction, electron microprobe analysis, SEM and TEM. The mineral composition and structure of the iberulites consists of quartz, carbonate and feldspar grains surrounded by a matrix of clay minerals (illite, smectite and kaolinite) that also surrounds the entire aggregate. Minor phases, also distributed homogenously within the iberulites, are sulfates and Fe oxides. Clays are apparently more abundant in the iberulites than in the total aerosol deposit, suggesting that iberulite formation concentrates clays. Details of the structure and composition of iberulites differ from descriptions of previous samples, which indicates dependence on dust sources and atmospheric conditions, possibly including anthropic activity. Iberulites are formed by coalescence of aerosol mineral particles captured by precursor water droplets. The concentration of clays in the iberulites is suggested to be the result of higher efficiency for clay capture than for the capture of larger mineral grains. The high hygroscopicity of clay minerals probably causes retention of water in the evaporation stage and some secondary minerals (mainly gypsum) are associated with clays.

Hydrogeologic Unit Flow Characterization Using Transition Probability Geostatistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, N L; Walker, J R; Carle, S F

2003-11-21

This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has several advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upwards sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow (HUF) package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids. An application of themore » technique involving probabilistic capture zone delineation for the Aberjona Aquifer in Woburn, Ma. is included.« less

Consequences of electrical conductivity in an orb spider's capture web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vollrath, Fritz; Edmonds, Donald

2013-12-01

The glue-coated and wet capture spiral of the orb web of the garden cross spider Araneus diadematus is suspended between the dry silk radial and web frame threads. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that the capture spiral is electrically conductive because of necks of liquid connecting the droplets even if the thread is stretched. We examine how this conductivity of the capture spiral may lead to entrapment of charged airborne particles such as pollen, spray droplets and even insects. We further describe and model how the conducting spiral will also locally distort the Earth's ambient electric field. Finally, we examine the hypothesis that such distortion could be used by potential prey to detect the presence of a web but conclude that any effect would probably be too small to allow an insect to take evasive action.

Estimating detection and density of the Andean cat in the high Andes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reppucci, J.; Gardner, B.; Lucherini, M.

2011-01-01

The Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita) is one of the most endangered, yet least known, felids. Although the Andean cat is considered at risk of extinction, rigorous quantitative population studies are lacking. Because physical observations of the Andean cat are difficult to make in the wild, we used a camera-trapping array to photo-capture individuals. The survey was conducted in northwestern Argentina at an elevation of approximately 4,200 m during October-December 2006 and April-June 2007. In each year we deployed 22 pairs of camera traps, which were strategically placed. To estimate detection probability and density we applied models for spatial capture-recapture using a Bayesian framework. Estimated densities were 0.07 and 0.12 individual/km 2 for 2006 and 2007, respectively. Mean baseline detection probability was estimated at 0.07. By comparison, densities of the Pampas cat (Leopardus colocolo), another poorly known felid that shares its habitat with the Andean cat, were estimated at 0.74-0.79 individual/km2 in the same study area for 2006 and 2007, and its detection probability was estimated at 0.02. Despite having greater detectability, the Andean cat is rarer in the study region than the Pampas cat. Properly accounting for the detection probability is important in making reliable estimates of density, a key parameter in conservation and management decisions for any species. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

Interplay between plasma hormone profiles, sex and body condition in immature hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) subjected to a capture stress protocol.

PubMed

Jessop, Tim S; Sumner, Joanna M; Limpus, Colin J; Whittier, Joan M

2004-01-01

We investigated plasma hormone profiles of corticosterone and testosterone in immature hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) in response to a capture stress protocol. Further, we examined whether sex and body condition were covariates associated with variation in the adrenocortical response of immature turtles. Hawksbill turtles responded to the capture stress protocol by significantly increasing plasma levels of corticosterone over a 5 h period. There was no significant sex difference in the corticosterone stress response of immature turtles. Plasma testosterone profiles, while significantly different between the sexes, did not exhibit a significant change during the 5 h capture stress protocol. An index of body condition was not significantly associated with a turtle's capacity to produce plasma corticosterone both prior to and during exposure to the capture stress protocol. In summary, while immature hawksbill turtles exhibited an adrenocortical response to a capture stress protocol, neither their sex nor body condition was responsible for variation in endocrine responses. This lack of interaction between the adrenocortical response and these internal factors suggests that the inactive reproductive- and the current energetic- status of these immature turtles are important factors that could influence plasma hormone profiles during stress.

Optimum space shuttle launch times relative to natural environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, R. L.

1977-01-01

The probabilities of favorable and unfavorable weather conditions for launch and landing of the STS under different criteria were computed for every three hours on a yearly basis using 14 years of weather data. These temporal probability distributions were considered for three sets of weather criteria encompassing benign, moderate and severe weather conditions for both Kennedy Space Center and for Edwards Air Force Base. In addition, the conditional probabilities were computed for unfavorable weather conditions occurring after a delay which may or may not be due to weather conditions. Also for KSC, the probabilities of favorable landing conditions at various times after favorable launch conditions have prevailed. The probabilities were computed to indicate the significance of each weather element to the overall result.

Sensitive and transportable gadolinium-core plastic scintillator sphere for neutron detection and counting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumazert, Jonathan; Coulon, Romain; Carrel, Frédérick; Corre, Gwenolé; Normand, Stéphane; Méchin, Laurence; Hamel, Matthieu

2016-08-01

Neutron detection forms a critical branch of nuclear-related issues, currently driven by the search for competitive alternative technologies to neutron counters based on the helium-3 isotope. The deployment of plastic scintillators shows a high potential for efficient detectors, safer and more reliable than liquids, more easily scalable and cost-effective than inorganic. In the meantime, natural gadolinium, through its 155 and mostly 157 isotopes, presents an exceptionally high interaction probability with thermal neutrons. This paper introduces a dual system including a metal gadolinium core inserted at the center of a high-scale plastic scintillator sphere. Incident fast neutrons are thermalized by the scintillator shell and then may be captured with a significant probability by gadolinium 155 and 157 nuclei in the core. The deposition of a sufficient fraction of the capture high-energy prompt gamma signature inside the scintillator shell will then allow discrimination from background radiations by energy threshold, and therefore neutron detection. The scaling of the system with the Monte Carlo MCNPX2.7 code was carried out according to a tradeoff between the moderation of incident fast neutrons and the probability of slow neutron capture by a moderate-cost metal gadolinium core. Based on the parameters extracted from simulation, a first laboratory prototype for the assessment of the detection method principle has been synthetized. The robustness and sensitivity of the neutron detection principle are then assessed by counting measurement experiments. Experimental results confirm the potential for a stable, highly sensitive, transportable and cost-efficient neutron detector and orientate future investigation toward promising axes.

The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

PubMed Central

Larget, Bret

2013-01-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

2008-01-01

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

Modeling association among demographic parameters in analysis of open population capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

2005-01-01

We present a hierarchical extension of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model for open population capture–recapture data. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture. The parameter set includes capture probabilities, survival rates, and birth rates. The survival rates and birth rates are treated as a random sample from a bivariate distribution, thus the model explicitly incorporates correlation in these demographic rates. A key feature of the model is that the likelihood function, which includes a CJS model factor, is expressed entirely in terms of identifiable parameters; losses on capture can be factored out of the model. Since the computational complexity of classical likelihood methods is prohibitive, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo in a Bayesian analysis. We describe an efficient candidate-generation scheme for Metropolis–Hastings sampling of CJS models and extensions. The procedure is illustrated using mark-recapture data for the moth Gonodontis bidentata.

Estimating population density and connectivity of American mink using spatial capture-recapture.

PubMed

Fuller, Angela K; Sutherland, Chris S; Royle, J Andrew; Hare, Matthew P

2016-06-01

Estimating the abundance or density of populations is fundamental to the conservation and management of species, and as landscapes become more fragmented, maintaining landscape connectivity has become one of the most important challenges for biodiversity conservation. Yet these two issues have never been formally integrated together in a model that simultaneously models abundance while accounting for connectivity of a landscape. We demonstrate an application of using capture-recapture to develop a model of animal density using a least-cost path model for individual encounter probability that accounts for non-Euclidean connectivity in a highly structured network. We utilized scat detection dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) as a means of collecting non-invasive genetic samples of American mink (Neovison vison) individuals and used spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) to gain inferences about mink population density and connectivity. Density of mink was not constant across the landscape, but rather increased with increasing distance from city, town, or village centers, and mink activity was associated with water. The SCR model allowed us to estimate the density and spatial distribution of individuals across a 388 km² area. The model was used to investigate patterns of space usage and to evaluate covariate effects on encounter probabilities, including differences between sexes. This study provides an application of capture-recapture models based on ecological distance, allowing us to directly estimate landscape connectivity. This approach should be widely applicable to provide simultaneous direct estimates of density, space usage, and landscape connectivity for many species.

Eigenpairs of Toeplitz and Disordered Toeplitz Matrices with a Fisher-Hartwig Symbol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Movassagh, Ramis; Kadanoff, Leo P.

2017-05-01

Toeplitz matrices have entries that are constant along diagonals. They model directed transport, are at the heart of correlation function calculations of the two-dimensional Ising model, and have applications in quantum information science. We derive their eigenvalues and eigenvectors when the symbol is singular Fisher-Hartwig. We then add diagonal disorder and study the resulting eigenpairs. We find that there is a "bulk" behavior that is well captured by second order perturbation theory of non-Hermitian matrices. The non-perturbative behavior is classified into two classes: Runaways type I leave the complex-valued spectrum and become completely real because of eigenvalue attraction. Runaways type II leave the bulk and move very rapidly in response to perturbations. These have high condition numbers and can be predicted. Localization of the eigenvectors are then quantified using entropies and inverse participation ratios. Eigenvectors corresponding to Runaways type II are most localized (i.e., super-exponential), whereas Runaways type I are less localized than the unperturbed counterparts and have most of their probability mass in the interior with algebraic decays. The results are corroborated by applying free probability theory and various other supporting numerical studies.

Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.

2005-06-01

Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb

Quantitative prediction of collision-induced vibration-rotation distributions from physical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Richard J.; McCaffery, Anthony J.

2003-04-01

We describe a rapid, accurate technique for computing state-to-state cross-sections in collision-induced vibration-rotation transfer (VRT) using only physical data, i.e. spectroscopic constants, bond length, mass and velocity distribution. The probability of linear-to-angular momentum (AM) conversion is calculated for a set of trajectories, each of which is subjected to energy conservation boundary conditions. No mechanism is specified for inducing vibrational state change. In the model, this constitutes a velocity or momentum barrier that must be overcome before rotational AM may be generated in the new vibrational state. The method is subjected to stringent testing by calculating state-to-state VRT probabilities for diatomics in highly excited vibrational, rotational and electronic states. Comparison is made to experimental data and to results from quantum mechanical and from quasi-classical trajectory calculations. There is quantitative agreement with data from all three sources, indicating that despite its simplicity the essential physics of collisions involving highly excited species is captured in the model. We develop further the concept of the molecular efficiency factor as an indicative parameter in collision dynamics, and derive an expression for ji > 0 and for VRT.

Impaired Contingent Attentional Capture Predicts Reduced Working Memory Capacity in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Mayer, Jutta S.; Fukuda, Keisuke; Vogel, Edward K.; Park, Sohee

2012-01-01

Although impairments in working memory (WM) are well documented in schizophrenia, the specific factors that cause these deficits are poorly understood. In this study, we hypothesized that a heightened susceptibility to attentional capture at an early stage of visual processing would result in working memory encoding problems. 30 patients with schizophrenia and 28 demographically matched healthy participants were presented with a search array and asked to report the orientation of the target stimulus. In some of the trials, a flanker stimulus preceded the search array that either matched the color of the target (relevant-flanker capture) or appeared in a different color (irrelevant-flanker capture). Working memory capacity was determined in each individual using the visual change detection paradigm. Patients needed considerably more time to find the target in the no-flanker condition. After adjusting the individual exposure time, both groups showed equivalent capture costs in the irrelevant-flanker condition. However, in the relevant-flanker condition, capture costs were increased in patients compared to controls when the stimulus onset asynchrony between the flanker and the search array was high. Moreover, the increase in relevant capture costs correlated negatively with working memory capacity. This study demonstrates preserved stimulus-driven attentional capture but impaired contingent attentional capture associated with low working memory capacity in schizophrenia. These findings suggest a selective impairment of top-down attentional control in schizophrenia, which may impair working memory encoding. PMID:23152783

Impaired contingent attentional capture predicts reduced working memory capacity in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Mayer, Jutta S; Fukuda, Keisuke; Vogel, Edward K; Park, Sohee

2012-01-01

Although impairments in working memory (WM) are well documented in schizophrenia, the specific factors that cause these deficits are poorly understood. In this study, we hypothesized that a heightened susceptibility to attentional capture at an early stage of visual processing would result in working memory encoding problems. 30 patients with schizophrenia and 28 demographically matched healthy participants were presented with a search array and asked to report the orientation of the target stimulus. In some of the trials, a flanker stimulus preceded the search array that either matched the color of the target (relevant-flanker capture) or appeared in a different color (irrelevant-flanker capture). Working memory capacity was determined in each individual using the visual change detection paradigm. Patients needed considerably more time to find the target in the no-flanker condition. After adjusting the individual exposure time, both groups showed equivalent capture costs in the irrelevant-flanker condition. However, in the relevant-flanker condition, capture costs were increased in patients compared to controls when the stimulus onset asynchrony between the flanker and the search array was high. Moreover, the increase in relevant capture costs correlated negatively with working memory capacity. This study demonstrates preserved stimulus-driven attentional capture but impaired contingent attentional capture associated with low working memory capacity in schizophrenia. These findings suggest a selective impairment of top-down attentional control in schizophrenia, which may impair working memory encoding.

An Alternative Teaching Method of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of the Truth Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Vashlishan Murray, Amy

2015-01-01

This paper presents a comparison of three approaches to the teaching of probability to demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic can be used to teach the calculations of conditional probabilities. Students are typically introduced to the topic of conditional probabilities--especially the ones that involve Bayes' rule--with…

Development of models to inform a national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessment for Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dijkstra, Tom A.; Reeves, Helen J.; Dashwood, Claire; Pennington, Catherine; Freeborough, Katy; Mackay, Jonathan D.; Uhlemann, Sebastian S.; Chambers, Jonathan E.; Wilkinson, Paul B.

2015-04-01

The British Geological Survey (BGS) provides landside hazard information as part of its strategic role. This includes, among others, the issuing of a national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessment (DLHA) one of the hazards assessments issued by the Natural Hazard Partnership. A range of tools are currently under development to further develop reliability and enhance the granularity of these assessments. The BGS has three datasets that support and underpin this research; the National Landslide Database (NLD), the DiGMap mass movement layer and GeoSure. The NLD holds more than 16,500 records of landslides across Great Britain (GB) stored in an Oracle database that is accessible through an ESRI ® ArcGIS interface. DiGMap comprises a digital map layer with outlines of all landslides recorded by field geologists. GeoSure is a BGS product that assesses the potential for ground movement across GB in six layers, one of which is landslide potential. The GeoSure landslide potential layer incorporates information on conditioning factors, such as local geology, geotechnical parameters and topography. These are combined within a GIS to derive a map showing where a landslide may occur under favourable conditions (e.g. persistent wet conditions due to adverse weather). Different types of terrain will be affected by different modes of landsliding and a series of hierarchical landslide domains have been established capturing the spatial consistency of slope deformation response. Each landslide domain represents an area of similar physiographic and geological characteristics which has shaped the style of landsliding (recognising relic, active and potentially active processes). In turn, this enables development of regional thresholds that are relevant to characteristic landslides in these domains. The wet period from summer 2012 into early spring 2013 resulted in a surge of recorded landslides, particularly in SW England and S Wales. Approximations of regional effective precipitation were combined with records of observed landslide events to establish which antecedent effective precipitation (AEP) signatures of different duration could be used as a pragmatic proxy for the occurrence of landslides. It was established that 1, 7, and 90 days AEP provided the most significant correlations and these were used to calculate the probability of at least one landslide occurring. The method was then extended over the period 2006 to 2014 and the results evaluated against observed occurrences. It is recognised that AEP is a relatively poor proxy for simulating effective stress conditions along potential slip surfaces. However, the temporal pattern of landslide probability compares well to the observed occurrences and provides a potential benefit to assist with the DLHA. Further work is continuing to fine-tune the model for landslide type, better spatial resolution of effective precipitation input and cross-reference to models that capture changes in water balance and conditions along slip surfaces. The latter is facilitated by intensive research at several field laboratories, such as the Hollin Hill site in Yorkshire, England. At this site, a decade of activity has generated a broad range of research and a wealth of data. This paper reports on one example of recent work; the characterisation of near surface hydrology using infiltration experiments where hydrological pathways are captured, among others, by electrical resistivity tomography. This research, which has further developed our understanding of soil moisture movement in a heterogeneous landslide complex, has highlighted the importance of establishing detailed ground models to enable determination of landslide potential at high resolution. In turn, the knowledge gained through this research is used to enhance the expertise for the daily landslide hazard assessments at a national scale.

Reply to Efford on ‘Integrating resource selection information with spatial capture-recapture’

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy; Chandler, Richard; Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.

2014-01-01

3. A key point of Royle et al. (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2013, 4) was that active resource selection induces heterogeneity in encounter probability which, if unaccounted for, should bias estimates of population size or density. The models of Royle et al. (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2013, 4) and Efford (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2014, 000, 000) merely amount to alternative models of resource selection, and hence varying amounts of heterogeneity in encounter probability.

Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2003-01-01

Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

Funnel traps capture a higher proportion of juvenile Great Tits Parus major than automatic traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senar, J.C.; Domenech, J.; Conroy, M.J.

1999-01-01

We compared capture rates of Great Tits at funnel traps, where several birds can be captured at once so that some decoy effect may appear, to those obtained at automatic traps, where only one bird can be trapped at a time, at trapping stations in northeastern Spain. Juvenile birds were mainly captured at funnel traps (79% of juvenile captures), whereas adult plumaged birds were captured at both types of traps (51% of captures were at the funnel traps) (test between ages, P<0.001). Juvenile Great Tits had lower body condition as measured by ptilochronology (P<0.01). These birds are more easily trapped in funnel traps, which may be acting as decoy traps, and thus are vulnerable to the same kinds of biases (eg age or body condition) that have been previously documented for decoy traps.

Efficient Statistically Accurate Algorithms for the Fokker-Planck Equation in Large Dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, N.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

Solving the Fokker-Planck equation for high-dimensional complex turbulent dynamical systems is an important and practical issue. However, most traditional methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality and have difficulties in capturing the fat tailed highly intermittent probability density functions (PDFs) of complex systems in turbulence, neuroscience and excitable media. In this article, efficient statistically accurate algorithms are developed for solving both the transient and the equilibrium solutions of Fokker-Planck equations associated with high-dimensional nonlinear turbulent dynamical systems with conditional Gaussian structures. The algorithms involve a hybrid strategy that requires only a small number of ensembles. Here, a conditional Gaussian mixture in a high-dimensional subspace via an extremely efficient parametric method is combined with a judicious non-parametric Gaussian kernel density estimation in the remaining low-dimensional subspace. Particularly, the parametric method, which is based on an effective data assimilation framework, provides closed analytical formulae for determining the conditional Gaussian distributions in the high-dimensional subspace. Therefore, it is computationally efficient and accurate. The full non-Gaussian PDF of the system is then given by a Gaussian mixture. Different from the traditional particle methods, each conditional Gaussian distribution here covers a significant portion of the high-dimensional PDF. Therefore a small number of ensembles is sufficient to recover the full PDF, which overcomes the curse of dimensionality. Notably, the mixture distribution has a significant skill in capturing the transient behavior with fat tails of the high-dimensional non-Gaussian PDFs, and this facilitates the algorithms in accurately describing the intermittency and extreme events in complex turbulent systems. It is shown in a stringent set of test problems that the method only requires an order of O(100) ensembles to successfully recover the highly non-Gaussian transient PDFs in up to 6 dimensions with only small errors.

Evaluation of the 1077 keV γ-ray emission probability from 68Ga decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xiao-Long; Jiang, Li-Yang; Chen, Xiong-Jun; Chen, Guo-Chang

2014-04-01

68Ga decays to the excited states of 68Zn through the electron capture decay mode. New recommended values for the emission probability of 1077 keV γ-ray given by the ENSDF and DDEP databases all use data from absolute measurements. In 2011, JIANG Li-Yang deduced a new value for 1077 keV γ-ray emission probability by measuring the 69Ga(n,2n) 68Ga reaction cross section. The new value is about 20% lower than values obtained from previous absolute measurements and evaluations. In this paper, the discrepancies among the measurements and evaluations are analyzed carefully and the new values are re-recommended. Our recommended value for the emission probability of 1077 keV γ-ray is (2.72±0.16)%.

Geochemical recognition of a captured back-arc basin metabasaltic complex, southwestern Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, M.M.

1991-01-01

An extensive fault-bounded amphibolite terrane of Late Jurassic (145 ?? 2 Ma) metamorphic age occurring in the northeastern Klamath Mountains of southern Oregon has been recognized as the remnants of an ancient back-arc basin. In spite of thorough metamorphic recrystallization under amphibolite-facies conditions, the amphibolite locally displays relict igneous textures which suggest that the protoliths included basaltic dikes or sills, shallow diabase intrusions, and gabbros. The geochemical data, together with the present-day geologic context, indicate that the tectonic setting of eruption/intrusion was probably within a back-arc basin that existed inboard (east) of a pre-Nevadan volcanic arc. The basalt (now amphibolite) and the overlying sediments (now the May Creek Schist) were metamorphosed and deformed during accretion to North America during the Late Jurassic Nevadan orogeny. -from Author

Experimental Investigation of Augmented Spark Ignition of a LO2/LCH4 Reaction Control Engine at Altitude Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinhenz, Julie; Sarmiento, Charles; Marshall, William

2012-01-01

The use of nontoxic propellants in future exploration vehicles would enable safer, more cost-effective mission scenarios. One promising green alternative to existing hypergols is liquid methane (LCH4) with liquid oxygen (LO2). A 100 lbf LO2/LCH4 engine was developed under the NASA Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development project and tested at the NASA Glenn Research Center Altitude Combustion Stand in a low pressure environment. High ignition energy is a perceived drawback of this propellant combination; so this ignition margin test program examined ignition performance versus delivered spark energy. Sensitivity of ignition to spark timing and repetition rate was also explored. Three different exciter units were used with the engine s augmented (torch) igniter. Captured waveforms indicated spark behavior in hot fire conditions was inconsistent compared to the well-behaved dry sparks. This suggests that rising pressure and flow rate increase spark impedance and may at some point compromise an exciter s ability to complete each spark. The reduced spark energies of such quenched deliveries resulted in more erratic ignitions, decreasing ignition probability. The timing of the sparks relative to the pressure/flow conditions also impacted the probability of ignition. Sparks occurring early in the flow could trigger ignition with energies as low as 1 to 6 mJ, though multiple, similarly timed sparks of 55 to 75 mJ were required for reliable ignition. Delayed spark application and reduced spark repetition rate both correlated with late and occasional failed ignitions. An optimum time interval for spark application and ignition therefore coincides with propellant introduction to the igniter.

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long-lived amphibian.

PubMed

Cayuela, Hugo; Arsovski, Dragan; Thirion, Jean-Marc; Bonnaire, Eric; Pichenot, Julian; Boitaud, Sylvain; Miaud, Claude; Joly, Pierre; Besnard, Aurélien

2016-08-01

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long-lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long-lived amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture-recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context-dependent variation in demographic processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spark Ignition Characteristics of a L02/LCH4 Engine at Altitude Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinhenz, Julie; Sarmiento, Charles; Marshall, William

2012-01-01

The use of non-toxic propellants in future exploration vehicles would enable safer, more cost effective mission scenarios. One promising "green" alternative to existing hypergols is liquid methane/liquid oxygen. To demonstrate performance and prove feasibility of this propellant combination, a 100lbf LO2/LCH4 engine was developed and tested under the NASA Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development (PCAD) project. Since high ignition energy is a perceived drawback of this propellant combination, a test program was performed to explore ignition performance and reliability versus delivered spark energy. The sensitivity of ignition to spark timing and repetition rate was also examined. Three different exciter units were used with the engine s augmented (torch) igniter. Propellant temperature was also varied within the liquid range. Captured waveforms indicated spark behavior in hot fire conditions was inconsistent compared to the well-behaved dry sparks (in quiescent, room air). The escalating pressure and flow environment increases spark impedance and may at some point compromise an exciter s ability to deliver a spark. Reduced spark energies of these sparks result in more erratic ignitions and adversely affect ignition probability. The timing of the sparks relative to the pressure/flow conditions also impacted the probability of ignition. Sparks occurring early in the flow could trigger ignition with energies as low as 1-6mJ, though multiple, similarly timed sparks of 55-75mJ were required for reliable ignition. An optimum time interval for spark application and ignition coincided with propellant introduction to the igniter and engine. Shifts of ignition timing were manifested by changes in the characteristics of the resulting ignition.

Spark Ignition Characteristics of a LO2/LCH4 Engine at Altitude Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinhenz, Julie; Sarmiento, Charles; Marshall, William

2012-01-01

The use of non-toxic propellants in future exploration vehicles would enable safer, more cost effective mission scenarios. One promising "green" alternative to existing hypergols is liquid methane/liquid oxygen. To demonstrate performance and prove feasibility of this propellant combination, a 100lbf LO2/LCH4 engine was developed and tested under the NASA Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development (PCAD) project. Since high ignition energy is a perceived drawback of this propellant combination, a test program was performed to explore ignition performance and reliability versus delivered spark energy. The sensitivity of ignition to spark timing and repetition rate was also examined. Three different exciter units were used with the engine's augmented (torch) igniter. Propellant temperature was also varied within the liquid range. Captured waveforms indicated spark behavior in hot fire conditions was inconsistent compared to the well-behaved dry sparks (in quiescent, room air). The escalating pressure and flow environment increases spark impedance and may at some point compromise an exciter.s ability to deliver a spark. Reduced spark energies of these sparks result in more erratic ignitions and adversely affect ignition probability. The timing of the sparks relative to the pressure/flow conditions also impacted the probability of ignition. Sparks occurring early in the flow could trigger ignition with energies as low as 1-6mJ, though multiple, similarly timed sparks of 55-75mJ were required for reliable ignition. An optimum time interval for spark application and ignition coincided with propellant introduction to the igniter and engine. Shifts of ignition timing were manifested by changes in the characteristics of the resulting ignition.

Seasonal streamflow prediction using ensemble streamflow prediction technique for the Rangitata and Waitaki River basins on the South Island of New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Shailesh Kumar

2014-05-01

Streamflow forecasts are essential for making critical decision for optimal allocation of water supplies for various demands that include irrigation for agriculture, habitat for fisheries, hydropower production and flood warning. The major objective of this study is to explore the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) based forecast in New Zealand catchments and to highlights the present capability of seasonal flow forecasting of National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). In this study a probabilistic forecast framework for ESP is presented. The basic assumption in ESP is that future weather pattern were experienced historically. Hence, past forcing data can be used with current initial condition to generate an ensemble of prediction. Small differences in initial conditions can result in large difference in the forecast. The initial state of catchment can be obtained by continuously running the model till current time and use this initial state with past forcing data to generate ensemble of flow for future. The approach taken here is to run TopNet hydrological models with a range of past forcing data (precipitation, temperature etc.) with current initial conditions. The collection of runs is called the ensemble. ESP give probabilistic forecasts for flow. From ensemble members the probability distributions can be derived. The probability distributions capture part of the intrinsic uncertainty in weather or climate. An ensemble stream flow prediction which provide probabilistic hydrological forecast with lead time up to 3 months is presented for Rangitata, Ahuriri, and Hooker and Jollie rivers in South Island of New Zealand. ESP based seasonal forecast have better skill than climatology. This system can provide better over all information for holistic water resource management.

What shapes fitness costs of reproduction in long-lived iteroparous species? A case study on the Alpine ibex.

PubMed

Garnier, Alexandre; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Gauthier, Dominique; Besnard, Aurélien

2016-01-01

The fitness costs of reproduction can be masked by individual differences, and may only become apparent during adverse environmental conditions. Individual differences, however, are usually assessed by reproductive success, so how fitness costs are influenced by the interplay between the environmental context and overall individual differences requires further investigation. Here, we evaluated fitness costs of reproduction based on 15 yr of monitoring of individual Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) during a period when the population was affected by a severe disease outbreak (pneumonia). We quantified fitness costs using a novel multi-event capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling approach that accounted for uncertainty in reproductive status to estimate the survival and reproductive success of female ibex while also accounting for overall individual heterogeneity using mixture models. Our results show that the ability of females to reproduce was highly heterogeneous. In particular, one group including 76% of females had a much higher probability of giving birth annually (between 0.66 and 0.77, depending on the previous reproductive status) than females of the second group (24% of females, between 0 and 0.05 probability of giving birth annually). Low reproductive costs in terms of future reproduction occurred and were independent of the pneumonia outbreak. There was no survival cost of reproduction either before or after the epizootic, but the cost was high during the epizootic. Our findings indicate that adverse environmental conditions, such as disease outbreaks, may lead to survival costs of reproduction in long-lived species and select against females that have a high reproductive effort. Thereby, the occurrence of adverse conditions increases the diversity of reproductive tactics within a population.

A satellite-asteroid mystery and a possible early flux of scattered C-class asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, William K.

1987-01-01

The C spectral class implied by the neutral spectra and low albedo of probably capture-originated satellites orbiting Saturn, Jupiter, and Mars is noted to contradict evidence that class-C objects are native only to the outer half of the asteroid belt. It is presently suggested that Jupiter resonances may have scattered a high flux of C-type objects out of the belt as well as throughout the primordial solar system, at the close of planet accretion, when extended atmospheres could figure in their capture. The largest scattered object fluxes come from the resonance regions primarily populated by C-class objects, lending support to the Pollack et al. (1979) capture scenario invoking extended protoatmospheres.

Probability density function of non-reactive solute concentration in heterogeneous porous formations.

PubMed

Bellin, Alberto; Tonina, Daniele

2007-10-30

Available models of solute transport in heterogeneous formations lack in providing complete characterization of the predicted concentration. This is a serious drawback especially in risk analysis where confidence intervals and probability of exceeding threshold values are required. Our contribution to fill this gap of knowledge is a probability distribution model for the local concentration of conservative tracers migrating in heterogeneous aquifers. Our model accounts for dilution, mechanical mixing within the sampling volume and spreading due to formation heterogeneity. It is developed by modeling local concentration dynamics with an Ito Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) that under the hypothesis of statistical stationarity leads to the Beta probability distribution function (pdf) for the solute concentration. This model shows large flexibility in capturing the smoothing effect of the sampling volume and the associated reduction of the probability of exceeding large concentrations. Furthermore, it is fully characterized by the first two moments of the solute concentration, and these are the same pieces of information required for standard geostatistical techniques employing Normal or Log-Normal distributions. Additionally, we show that in the absence of pore-scale dispersion and for point concentrations the pdf model converges to the binary distribution of [Dagan, G., 1982. Stochastic modeling of groundwater flow by unconditional and conditional probabilities, 2, The solute transport. Water Resour. Res. 18 (4), 835-848.], while it approaches the Normal distribution for sampling volumes much larger than the characteristic scale of the aquifer heterogeneity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the same model with the spatial moments replacing the statistical moments can be applied to estimate the proportion of the plume volume where solute concentrations are above or below critical thresholds. Application of this model to point and vertically averaged bromide concentrations from the first Cape Cod tracer test and to a set of numerical simulations confirms the above findings and for the first time it shows the superiority of the Beta model to both Normal and Log-Normal models in interpreting field data. Furthermore, we show that assuming a-priori that local concentrations are normally or log-normally distributed may result in a severe underestimate of the probability of exceeding large concentrations.

The Probability Approach to English If-Conditional Sentences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Mei

2012-01-01

Users of the Probability Approach choose the right one from four basic types of conditional sentences--factual, predictive, hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals, by judging how likely (i.e. the probability) the event in the result-clause will take place when the condition in the if-clause is met. Thirty-three students from the experimental…

Identifying the most hazardous synoptic meteorological conditions for Winter UK PM10 exceedences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, Chris; Dacre, Helen; Collins, Bill; Masato, Giacomo

2016-04-01

Summary We investigate the relationship between synoptic scale meteorological variability and local scale pollution concentrations within the UK. Synoptic conditions representative of atmospheric blocking highlighted significant increases in UK PM10 concentration ([PM10]), with the probability of exceeding harmful [PM10] limits also increased. Once relationships had been diagnosed, The Met Office Unified Model (UM) was used to replicate these relationships, using idealised source regions of PM10. This helped to determine the PM10 source regions most influential throughout UK PM10 exceedance events and to test whether the model was capable of capturing the relationships between UK PM10 and atmospheric blocking. Finally, a time slice simulation for 2050-2060 helped to answer the question whether PM10 exceedance events are more likely to occur within a changing climate. Introduction Atmospheric blocking events are well understood to lead to conditions, conducive to pollution events within the UK. Literature shows that synoptic conditions with the ability to deflect the Northwest Atlantic storm track from the UK, often lead to the highest UK pollution concentrations. Rossby wave breaking (RWB) has been identified as a mechanism, which results in atmospheric blocking and its relationship with UK [PM10] is explored using metrics designed in Masato, et al., 2013. Climate simulations facilitated by the Met Office UM, enable these relationships between RWB and PM10 to be found within the model. Subsequently the frequency of events that lead to hazardous PM10 concentrations ([PM10]) in a future climate, can be determined, within a climate simulation. An understanding of the impact, meteorology has on UK [PM10] within a changing climate, will help inform policy makers, regarding the importance of limiting PM10 emissions, ensuring safe air quality in the future. Methodology and Results Three Blocking metrics were used to subset RWB into four categories. These RWB categories were all shown to increase UK [PM10] and to increase the probability of exceeding a UK [PM10] threshold, when they occurred within constrained regions. Further analysis highlighted that Omega Block events lead to the greatest probability of exceeding hazardous UK [PM10] limits. These events facilitated the advection of European PM10, while also providing stagnant conditions over the UK, facilitating PM10 accumulation. The Met Office UM was used and nudged to ERA-Interim Reanalysis wind and temperature fields, to replicate the relationships found using observed UK [PM10]. Inert tracers were implemented into the model to replicate UK PM10 source regions throughout Europe. The modelled tracers were seen to correlate well with observed [PM10] and Figure 1 highlights the correlations between a RWB metric and observed (a) and modelled (b) [PM10]. A further free running model simulation highlighted the deficiency of the Met Office UM in capturing RWB frequency, with a reduction over the Northwest Atlantic/ European region. A final time slice simulation was undertaken for the period 2050-2060, using Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which attempted to determine the change in frequency of UK PM10 exceedance events, due to changing meteorology, in a future climate. Conclusions RWB has been shown to increase UK [PM10] and to lead to greater probabilities of exceeding a harmful [PM10] threshold. Omega block events have been determined the most hazardous RWB subset and this is due to a combination of European advection and UK stagnation. Simulations within the Met Office UM were undertaken and the relationships seen between observed UK [PM10] and RWB were replicated within the model, using inert tracers. Finally, time slice simulations were undertaken, determining the change in frequency of UK [PM10] exceedance events within a changing climate. References Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., Woolings, T., 2013; Wave-breaking Characteristics of Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking: A Two-Dimensional Approach. J. Climate, 26, 4535-4549.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

Suitability of digital camcorders for virtual reality image data capture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Apuzzo, Nicola; Maas, Hans-Gerd

1998-12-01

Today's consumer market digital camcorders offer features which make them appear quite interesting devices for virtual reality data capture. The paper compares a digital camcorder with an analogue camcorder and a machine vision type CCD camera and discusses the suitability of these three cameras for virtual reality applications. Besides the discussion of technical features of the cameras, this includes a detailed accuracy test in order to define the range of applications. In combination with the cameras, three different framegrabbers are tested. The geometric accuracy potential of all three cameras turned out to be surprisingly large, and no problems were noticed in the radiometric performance. On the other hand, some disadvantages have to be reported: from the photogrammetrists point of view, the major disadvantage of most camcorders is the missing possibility to synchronize multiple devices, limiting the suitability for 3-D motion data capture. Moreover, the standard video format contains interlacing, which is also undesirable for all applications dealing with moving objects or moving cameras. Further disadvantages are computer interfaces with functionality, which is still suboptimal. While custom-made solutions to these problems are probably rather expensive (and will make potential users turn back to machine vision like equipment), this functionality could probably be included by the manufacturers at almost zero cost.

Change-in-ratio density estimator for feral pigs is less biased than closed mark-recapture estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Mitchell, M.S.; Jolley, D.B.; Sparklin, B.D.; Ditchkoff, S.S.

2008-01-01

Closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods can produce biased density estimates for species with low or heterogeneous detection probabilities. In an attempt to address such biases, we developed a density-estimation method based on the change in ratio (CIR) of survival between two populations where survival, calculated using an open-population CMR model, is known to differ. We used our method to estimate density for a feral pig (Sus scrofa) population on Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. To assess its validity, we compared it to an estimate of the minimum density of pigs known to be alive and two estimates based on closed-population CMR models. Comparison of the density estimates revealed that the CIR estimator produced a density estimate with low precision that was reasonable with respect to minimum known density. By contrast, density point estimates using the closed-population CMR models were less than the minimum known density, consistent with biases created by low and heterogeneous capture probabilities for species like feral pigs that may occur in low density or are difficult to capture. Our CIR density estimator may be useful for tracking broad-scale, long-term changes in species, such as large cats, for which closed CMR models are unlikely to work. ?? CSIRO 2008.

Uncertainties on Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-03

distribution, p. The Erdos- Renyi model (E-R model) has been widely used in the past to capture the probability distributions of ADGs (Erdos and Renyi ...experimental data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103:778-789. Erdos, R and Renyi , A. (1959). On random graphs, I

Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Potential landscape and flux field theory for turbulence and nonequilibrium fluid systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wei; Zhang, Feng; Wang, Jin

2018-02-01

Turbulence is a paradigm for far-from-equilibrium systems without time reversal symmetry. To capture the nonequilibrium irreversible nature of turbulence and investigate its implications, we develop a potential landscape and flux field theory for turbulent flow and more general nonequilibrium fluid systems governed by stochastic Navier-Stokes equations. We find that equilibrium fluid systems with time reversibility are characterized by a detailed balance constraint that quantifies the detailed balance condition. In nonequilibrium fluid systems with nonequilibrium steady states, detailed balance breaking leads directly to a pair of interconnected consequences, namely, the non-Gaussian potential landscape and the irreversible probability flux, forming a 'nonequilibrium trinity'. The nonequilibrium trinity characterizes the nonequilibrium irreversible essence of fluid systems with intrinsic time irreversibility and is manifested in various aspects of these systems. The nonequilibrium stochastic dynamics of fluid systems including turbulence with detailed balance breaking is shown to be driven by both the non-Gaussian potential landscape gradient and the irreversible probability flux, together with the reversible convective force and the stochastic stirring force. We reveal an underlying connection of the energy flux essential for turbulence energy cascade to the irreversible probability flux and the non-Gaussian potential landscape generated by detailed balance breaking. Using the energy flux as a center of connection, we demonstrate that the four-fifths law in fully developed turbulence is a consequence and reflection of the nonequilibrium trinity. We also show how the nonequilibrium trinity can affect the scaling laws in turbulence.

A regulation probability model-based meta-analysis of multiple transcriptomics data sets for cancer biomarker identification.

PubMed

Xie, Xin-Ping; Xie, Yu-Feng; Wang, Hong-Qiang

2017-08-23

Large-scale accumulation of omics data poses a pressing challenge of integrative analysis of multiple data sets in bioinformatics. An open question of such integrative analysis is how to pinpoint consistent but subtle gene activity patterns across studies. Study heterogeneity needs to be addressed carefully for this goal. This paper proposes a regulation probability model-based meta-analysis, jGRP, for identifying differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The method integrates multiple transcriptomics data sets in a gene regulatory space instead of in a gene expression space, which makes it easy to capture and manage data heterogeneity across studies from different laboratories or platforms. Specifically, we transform gene expression profiles into a united gene regulation profile across studies by mathematically defining two gene regulation events between two conditions and estimating their occurring probabilities in a sample. Finally, a novel differential expression statistic is established based on the gene regulation profiles, realizing accurate and flexible identification of DEGs in gene regulation space. We evaluated the proposed method on simulation data and real-world cancer datasets and showed the effectiveness and efficiency of jGRP in identifying DEGs identification in the context of meta-analysis. Data heterogeneity largely influences the performance of meta-analysis of DEGs identification. Existing different meta-analysis methods were revealed to exhibit very different degrees of sensitivity to study heterogeneity. The proposed method, jGRP, can be a standalone tool due to its united framework and controllable way to deal with study heterogeneity.

CO2 Capture by Injection of Flue Gas or CO2-N2 Mixtures into Hydrate Reservoirs: Dependence of CO2 Capture Efficiency on Gas Hydrate Reservoir Conditions.

PubMed

Hassanpouryouzband, Aliakbar; Yang, Jinhai; Tohidi, Bahman; Chuvilin, Evgeny; Istomin, Vladimir; Bukhanov, Boris; Cheremisin, Alexey

2018-04-03

Injection of flue gas or CO 2 -N 2 mixtures into gas hydrate reservoirs has been considered as a promising option for geological storage of CO 2 . However, the thermodynamic process in which the CO 2 present in flue gas or a CO 2 -N 2 mixture is captured as hydrate has not been well understood. In this work, a series of experiments were conducted to investigate the dependence of CO 2 capture efficiency on reservoir conditions. The CO 2 capture efficiency was investigated at different injection pressures from 2.6 to 23.8 MPa and hydrate reservoir temperatures from 273.2 to 283.2 K in the presence of two different saturations of methane hydrate. The results showed that more than 60% of the CO 2 in the flue gas was captured and stored as CO 2 hydrate or CO 2 -mixed hydrates, while methane-rich gas was produced. The efficiency of CO 2 capture depends on the reservoir conditions including temperature, pressure, and hydrate saturation. For a certain reservoir temperature, there is an optimum reservoir pressure at which the maximum amount of CO 2 can be captured from the injected flue gas or CO 2 -N 2 mixtures. This finding suggests that it is essential to control the injection pressure to enhance CO 2 capture efficiency by flue gas or CO 2 -N 2 mixtures injection.

Attentional capture under high perceptual load.

PubMed

Cosman, Joshua D; Vecera, Shaun P

2010-12-01

Attentional capture by abrupt onsets can be modulated by several factors, including the complexity, or perceptual load, of a scene. We have recently demonstrated that observers are less likely to be captured by abruptly appearing, task-irrelevant stimuli when they perform a search that is high, as opposed to low, in perceptual load (Cosman & Vecera, 2009), consistent with perceptual load theory. However, recent results indicate that onset frequency can influence stimulus-driven capture, with infrequent onsets capturing attention more often than did frequent onsets. Importantly, in our previous task, an abrupt onset was present on every trial, and consequently, attentional capture might have been affected by both onset frequency and perceptual load. In the present experiment, we examined whether onset frequency influences attentional capture under conditions of high perceptual load. When onsets were presented frequently, we replicated our earlier results; attentional capture by onsets was modulated under conditions of high perceptual load. Importantly, however, when onsets were presented infrequently, we observed robust capture effects. These results conflict with a strong form of load theory and, instead, suggest that exposure to the elements of a task (e.g., abrupt onsets) combines with high perceptual load to modulate attentional capture by task-irrelevant information.

49 CFR 563.9 - Data capture.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Data capture. 563.9 Section 563.9 Transportation..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EVENT DATA RECORDERS § 563.9 Data capture. The EDR must capture and record the data elements for events in accordance with the following conditions and circumstances: (a) In a...

Thermal neutron capture cross sections for 16,171,18O and 2H

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firestone, R. B.; Revay, Zs.

2016-04-01

Thermal neutron capture γ -ray spectra for 16,17,18O and 2H have been measured with guided cold neutron beams from the Forschungs-Neutronenquelle Heinz Maier-Leibnitz (FRM II) reactor and the Budapest Research Reactor (BRR) on natural and O,1817 enriched D2O targets. Complete neutron capture γ -ray decay schemes for the 16,17,18O(n ,γ ) reactions were measured. Absolute transition probabilities were determined for each reaction by a least-squares fit of the γ -ray intensities to the decay schemes after accounting for the contribution from internal conversion. The transition probability for the 870.76-keV γ ray from 16O(n ,γ ) was measured as Pγ(871 )=96.6 ±0.5 % and the thermal neutron cross section for this γ ray was determined as 0.164 ±0.003 mb by internal standardization with multiple targets containing oxygen and stoichiometric quantities of hydrogen, nitrogen, and carbon whose γ -ray cross sections were previously standardized. The γ -ray cross sections for the O,1817(n ,γ ) and 2H(n ,γ ) reactions were then determined relative to the 870.76-keV γ -ray cross section after accounting for the isotopic abundances in the targets. We determined the following total radiative thermal neutron cross sections for each isotope from the γ -ray cross sections and transition probabilities; σ0(16O )=0.170 ±0.003 mb; σ0(17O )=0.67 ±0.07 mb; σ0(18O )=0.141 ±0.006 mb; and σ0(2H )=0.489 ±0.006 mb.

Distribution and abundance of Millicoma Dace in the Coos River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scheerer, Paul D.; Peterson, James T.; Clements, Shaun

2017-01-01

The Millicoma Dace Rhinichthys cataractae is a form of Longnose Dace endemic to the Coos River drainage in southwestern Oregon. Sparse species records in the Oregon State University Ichthyology Collection and database and infrequent recent encounters prompted surveys to assess the current status and distribution of the species. In 2014, we surveyed locations that had historically supported Millicoma Dace using backpack electrofishing to describe their current distribution and abundance at these locations. In 2015, we extended these surveys further upstream in the South Coos River basin, outside of the documented historical range. We used an N-mixture model to estimate abundance and capture probability for Millicoma Dace at each sampling location. We evaluated the effects of habitat covariates on both capture probability and abundance at each sample site. We found Millicoma Dace were widespread throughout their historical range and in the South Coos River sites outside of their documented historical range. We only found Millicoma Dace associated with native fishes; we did not collect any nonnative fish during our surveys. We collected Millicoma Dace exclusively from swift-water habitats, which were relatively uncommon in the basin, and found them typically associated with cobble or boulder substrates. Millicoma Dace were most abundant in the South Fork Coos and West Fork Millicoma River subbasins. We estimated capture probabilities for Millicoma Dace ranging from 9% when substrate was dominated by bedrock to 28% when substrate was dominated by cobble or gravel. Abundance estimates ranged from 1 to 560 dace per sampling location with a total estimated abundance (sum of site estimates) of over 3200 dace for the sites we sampled.

Estimating sample size for landscape-scale mark-recapture studies of North American migratory tree bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Laura E.; Lukacs, Paul M.

2014-01-01

Concern for migratory tree-roosting bats in North America has grown because of possible population declines from wind energy development. This concern has driven interest in estimating population-level changes. Mark-recapture methodology is one possible analytical framework for assessing bat population changes, but sample size requirements to produce reliable estimates have not been estimated. To illustrate the sample sizes necessary for a mark-recapture-based monitoring program we conducted power analyses using a statistical model that allows reencounters of live and dead marked individuals. We ran 1,000 simulations for each of five broad sample size categories in a Burnham joint model, and then compared the proportion of simulations in which 95% confidence intervals overlapped between and among years for a 4-year study. Additionally, we conducted sensitivity analyses of sample size to various capture probabilities and recovery probabilities. More than 50,000 individuals per year would need to be captured and released to accurately determine 10% and 15% declines in annual survival. To detect more dramatic declines of 33% or 50% survival over four years, then sample sizes of 25,000 or 10,000 per year, respectively, would be sufficient. Sensitivity analyses reveal that increasing recovery of dead marked individuals may be more valuable than increasing capture probability of marked individuals. Because of the extraordinary effort that would be required, we advise caution should such a mark-recapture effort be initiated because of the difficulty in attaining reliable estimates. We make recommendations for what techniques show the most promise for mark-recapture studies of bats because some techniques violate the assumptions of mark-recapture methodology when used to mark bats.

Lack of consistent hormonal responses to capture during the breeding season of the bearded dragon, Pogona barbata.

PubMed

Cree, A; Amey, A P; Whittier, J M

2000-06-01

The bearded dragon (Pogona barbata: Agamidae) is a diurnal, oviparous, multi-clutching lizard from Australia. We examined plasma hormonal responses to capture in males and females during the spring breeding season. Corticosterone concentrations at capture (0 h; < or =3 min after capture) were low (males: 1.81+/-0.63 ng/ml; females 2. 23+/-0.47 ng/ml) and within sexes were unrelated to the time of the day, snout-vent length or, in females, reproductive condition (vitellogenic, gravid, assumed spent). Corticosterone concentrations at capture were significantly and inversely correlated with body condition in males, but not in females. Unexpectedly, neither sex showed significant changes in mean concentrations of corticosterone at 3.5 or 24 h after capture compared with 0 h values. Corticosterone concentrations at 3.5 h after capture did not differ between dragons bled at capture or not. Concentrations of progesterone in both the sexes did not change between 0 h and 3.5 or 24 h after capture. Testosterone concentrations in males at capture were moderate (10.1+/-2.2 ng/ml), and unchanged at 3.5 h after capture. The adrenocortical axis of adult bearded dragons in the breeding season seems remarkably unresponsive to capture compared with many other reptiles. Low adrenocortical responses to capture may be a feature of reptiles known to adjust well to captivity.

Modelling eye movements in a categorical search task

PubMed Central

Zelinsky, Gregory J.; Adeli, Hossein; Peng, Yifan; Samaras, Dimitris

2013-01-01

We introduce a model of eye movements during categorical search, the task of finding and recognizing categorically defined targets. It extends a previous model of eye movements during search (target acquisition model, TAM) by using distances from an support vector machine classification boundary to create probability maps indicating pixel-by-pixel evidence for the target category in search images. Other additions include functionality enabling target-absent searches, and a fixation-based blurring of the search images now based on a mapping between visual and collicular space. We tested this model on images from a previously conducted variable set-size (6/13/20) present/absent search experiment where participants searched for categorically defined teddy bear targets among random category distractors. The model not only captured target-present/absent set-size effects, but also accurately predicted for all conditions the numbers of fixations made prior to search judgements. It also predicted the percentages of first eye movements during search landing on targets, a conservative measure of search guidance. Effects of set size on false negative and false positive errors were also captured, but error rates in general were overestimated. We conclude that visual features discriminating a target category from non-targets can be learned and used to guide eye movements during categorical search. PMID:24018720

Neural response to reward anticipation under risk is nonlinear in probabilities.

PubMed

Hsu, Ming; Krajbich, Ian; Zhao, Chen; Camerer, Colin F

2009-02-18

A widely observed phenomenon in decision making under risk is the apparent overweighting of unlikely events and the underweighting of nearly certain events. This violates standard assumptions in expected utility theory, which requires that expected utility be linear (objective) in probabilities. Models such as prospect theory have relaxed this assumption and introduced the notion of a "probability weighting function," which captures the key properties found in experimental data. This study reports functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data that neural response to expected reward is nonlinear in probabilities. Specifically, we found that activity in the striatum during valuation of monetary gambles are nonlinear in probabilities in the pattern predicted by prospect theory, suggesting that probability distortion is reflected at the level of the reward encoding process. The degree of nonlinearity reflected in individual subjects' decisions is also correlated with striatal activity across subjects. Our results shed light on the neural mechanisms of reward processing, and have implications for future neuroscientific studies of decision making involving extreme tails of the distribution, where probability weighting provides an explanation for commonly observed behavioral anomalies.

Measurements of high energy loss rates of fast highly charged U ions channeled in thin silicon crystals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray, C.; Chevallier, M.; Dauvergne, D.

2011-07-01

The results of two channeling experiments show that highly charged heavy ions at moderate velocities (v<

Facial recognition trial: biometric identification of non-compliant subjects using CCTV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Tim

2007-10-01

LogicaCMG were provided with an opportunity to deploy a facial recognition system in a realistic scenario. 12 cameras were installed at an international airport covering all entrances to the immigration hall. The evaluation took place over several months with numerous adjustments to both the hardware (i.e. cameras, servers and capture cards) and software. The learning curve has been very steep but a stage has now been reached where both LogicaCMG and the client are confident that, subject to the right environmental conditions (lighting and camera location) an effective system can be defined with a high probability of successful detection of the target individual, with minimal false alarms. To the best of our knowledge, results with a >90% detection rate, of non-compliant subjects 'at range' has not been achieved anywhere else. This puts this location at the forefront of capability in this area. The results achieved demonstrate that, given optimised conditions, it is possible to achieve a long range biometric identification of a non compliant subject, with a high rate of success.

Evaluation of Synthetic Self-Oscillating Models of the Vocal Folds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubler, Elizabeth P.; Weiland, Kelley S.; Hancock, Adrienne B.; Plesniak, Michael W.

2013-11-01

Approximately 30% of people will suffer from a voice disorder at some point in their lives. The probability doubles for those who rely heavily on their voice, such as teachers and singers. Synthetic vocal fold (VF) models are fabricated and evaluated experimentally in a vocal tract simulator to replicate physiological conditions. Pressure measurements are acquired along the vocal tract and high-speed images are captured at varying flow rates during VF oscillation to facilitate understanding of the characteristics of healthy and damaged VFs. The images are analyzed using a videokymography line-scan technique that has been used to examine VF motion and mucosal wave dynamics in vivo. Clinically relevant parameters calculated from the volume-velocity output of a circumferentially-vented mask (Rothenberg mask) are compared to patient data. This study integrates speech science with engineering and flow physics to overcome current limitations of synthetic VF models to properly replicate normal phonation in order to advance the understanding of resulting flow features, progression of pathological conditions, and medical techniques. Supported by the GW Institute for Biomedical Engineering (GWIBE) and GW Center for Biomimetics and Bioinspired Engineering (COBRE).

Use of spatial capture-recapture modeling and DNA data to estimate densities of elusive animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth; Stoeckle, Tabea; Weber, Darius; Royle, J. Andrew

2011-01-01

Assessment of abundance, survival, recruitment rates, and density (i.e., population assessment) is especially challenging for elusive species most in need of protection (e.g., rare carnivores). Individual identification methods, such as DNA sampling, provide ways of studying such species efficiently and noninvasively. Additionally, statistical methods that correct for undetected animals and account for locations where animals are captured are available to efficiently estimate density and other demographic parameters. We collected hair samples of European wildcat (Felis silvestris) from cheek-rub lure sticks, extracted DNA from the samples, and identified each animals' genotype. To estimate the density of wildcats, we used Bayesian inference in a spatial capture-recapture model. We used WinBUGS to fit a model that accounted for differences in detection probability among individuals and seasons and between two lure arrays. We detected 21 individual wildcats (including possible hybrids) 47 times. Wildcat density was estimated at 0.29/km2 (SE 0.06), and 95% of the activity of wildcats was estimated to occur within 1.83 km from their home-range center. Lures located systematically were associated with a greater number of detections than lures placed in a cell on the basis of expert opinion. Detection probability of individual cats was greatest in late March. Our model is a generalized linear mixed model; hence, it can be easily extended, for instance, to incorporate trap- and individual-level covariates. We believe that the combined use of noninvasive sampling techniques and spatial capture-recapture models will improve population assessments, especially for rare and elusive animals.

Adaptive attunement of selective covert attention to evolutionary-relevant emotional visual scenes.

PubMed

Fernández-Martín, Andrés; Gutiérrez-García, Aída; Capafons, Juan; Calvo, Manuel G

2017-05-01

We investigated selective attention to emotional scenes in peripheral vision, as a function of adaptive relevance of scene affective content for male and female observers. Pairs of emotional-neutral images appeared peripherally-with perceptual stimulus differences controlled-while viewers were fixating on a different stimulus in central vision. Early selective orienting was assessed by the probability of directing the first fixation towards either scene, and the time until first fixation. Emotional scenes selectively captured covert attention even when they were task-irrelevant, thus revealing involuntary, automatic processing. Sex of observers and specific emotional scene content (e.g., male-to-female-aggression, families and babies, etc.) interactively modulated covert attention, depending on adaptive priorities and goals for each sex, both for pleasant and unpleasant content. The attentional system exhibits domain-specific and sex-specific biases and attunements, probably rooted in evolutionary pressures to enhance reproductive and protective success. Emotional cues selectively capture covert attention based on their bio-social significance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

2004-01-01

Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, S.; White, G.C.; Keating, K.A.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2007-01-01

Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

PubMed

Larget, Bret

2013-07-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

Tandem mass spectrometry of human tryptic blood peptides calculated by a statistical algorithm and captured by a relational database with exploration by a general statistical analysis system.

PubMed

Bowden, Peter; Beavis, Ron; Marshall, John

2009-11-02

A goodness of fit test may be used to assign tandem mass spectra of peptides to amino acid sequences and to directly calculate the expected probability of mis-identification. The product of the peptide expectation values directly yields the probability that the parent protein has been mis-identified. A relational database could capture the mass spectral data, the best fit results, and permit subsequent calculations by a general statistical analysis system. The many files of the Hupo blood protein data correlated by X!TANDEM against the proteins of ENSEMBL were collected into a relational database. A redundant set of 247,077 proteins and peptides were correlated by X!TANDEM, and that was collapsed to a set of 34,956 peptides from 13,379 distinct proteins. About 6875 distinct proteins were only represented by a single distinct peptide, 2866 proteins showed 2 distinct peptides, and 3454 proteins showed at least three distinct peptides by X!TANDEM. More than 99% of the peptides were associated with proteins that had cumulative expectation values, i.e. probability of false positive identification, of one in one hundred or less. The distribution of peptides per protein from X!TANDEM was significantly different than those expected from random assignment of peptides.

Obstacles to prior art searching by the trilateral patent offices: empirical evidence from International Search Reports.

PubMed

Wada, Tetsuo

Despite many empirical studies having been carried out on examiner patent citations, few have scrutinized the obstacles to prior art searching when adding patent citations during patent prosecution at patent offices. This analysis takes advantage of the longitudinal gap between an International Search Report (ISR) as required by the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) and subsequent national examination procedures. We investigate whether several kinds of distance actually affect the probability that prior art is detected at the time of an ISR; this occurs much earlier than in national phase examinations. Based on triadic PCT applications between 2002 and 2005 for the trilateral patent offices (the European Patent Office, the US Patent and Trademark Office, and the Japan Patent Office) and their family-level citations made by the trilateral offices, we find evidence that geographical distance negatively affects the probability of capture of prior patents in an ISR. In addition, the technological complexity of an application negatively affects the probability of capture, whereas the volume of forward citations of prior art affects it positively. These results demonstrate the presence of obstacles to searching at patent offices, and suggest ways to design work sharing by patent offices, such that the duplication of search costs arises only when patent office search horizons overlap.

Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth

2010-01-01

The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

Large-amplitude nuclear motion formulated in terms of dissipation of quantum fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzyakin, R. A.; Sargsyan, V. V.; Adamian, G. G.; Antonenko, N. V.

2017-01-01

The potential-barrier penetrability and quasi-stationary thermal-decay rate of a metastable state are formulated in terms of microscopic quantum diffusion. Apart from linear coupling in momentum between the collective and internal subsystems, the formalism embraces the more general case of linear couplings in both the momentum and the coordinates. The developed formalism is then used for describing the process of projectile-nucleus capture by a target nucleus at incident energies near and below the Coulomb barrier. The capture partial probability, which determines the cross section for formation of a dinuclear system, is derived in analytical form. The total and partial capture cross sections, mean and root-mean-square angular momenta of the formed dinuclear system, astrophysical -factors, logarithmic derivatives, and barrier distributions are derived for various reactions. Also investigated are the effects of nuclear static deformation and neutron transfer between the interacting nuclei on the capture cross section and its isotopic dependence, and the entrance-channel effects on the capture process. The results of calculations for reactions involving both spherical and deformed nuclei are in good agreement with available experimental data.

Modeling misidentification errors that result from use of genetic tags in capture-recapture studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yoshizaki, J.; Brownie, C.; Pollock, K.H.; Link, W.A.

2011-01-01

Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) such as DNA fingerprints (genetic tags) are used to identify individual animals. For example, when misidentification leads to multiple identities being assigned to an animal, traditional estimators tend to overestimate population size. Accounting for misidentification in capture-recapture models requires detailed understanding of the mechanism. Using genetic tags as an example, we outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies when individual identification is based on natural tags that are consistent over time (non-evolving natural tags). We first assume a single sample is obtained per animal for each capture event, and then generalize to the case where multiple samples (such as hair or scat samples) are collected per animal per capture occasion. We introduce methods for estimating population size and, using a simulation study, we show that our new estimators perform well for cases with moderately high capture probabilities or high misidentification rates. In contrast, conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

"A violation of the conditional independence assumption in the two-high-threshold Model of recognition memory": Correction to Chen, Starns, and Rotello (2015).

PubMed

2016-01-01

Reports an error in "A violation of the conditional independence assumption in the two-high-threshold model of recognition memory" by Tina Chen, Jeffrey J. Starns and Caren M. Rotello (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2015[Jul], Vol 41[4], 1215-1222). In the article, Chen et al. compared three models: a continuous signal detection model (SDT), a standard two-high-threshold discrete-state model in which detect states always led to correct responses (2HT), and a full-mapping version of the 2HT model in which detect states could lead to either correct or incorrect responses. After publication, Rani Moran (personal communication, April 21, 2015) identified two errors that impact the reported fit statistics for the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) metric of all models as well as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) results for the full-mapping model. The errors are described in the erratum. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2014-56216-001.) The 2-high-threshold (2HT) model of recognition memory assumes that test items result in distinct internal states: they are either detected or not, and the probability of responding at a particular confidence level that an item is "old" or "new" depends on the state-response mapping parameters. The mapping parameters are independent of the probability that an item yields a particular state (e.g., both strong and weak items that are detected as old have the same probability of producing a highest-confidence "old" response). We tested this conditional independence assumption by presenting nouns 1, 2, or 4 times. To maximize the strength of some items, "superstrong" items were repeated 4 times and encoded in conjunction with pleasantness, imageability, anagram, and survival processing tasks. The 2HT model failed to simultaneously capture the response rate data for all item classes, demonstrating that the data violated the conditional independence assumption. In contrast, a Gaussian signal detection model, which posits that the level of confidence that an item is "old" or "new" is a function of its continuous strength value, provided a good account of the data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Selective gas capture via kinetic trapping

DOE PAGES

Kundu, Joyjit; Pascal, Tod; Prendergast, David; ...

2016-07-13

Conventional approaches to the capture of CO 2 by metal-organic frameworks focus on equilibrium conditions, and frameworks that contain little CO 2 in equilibrium are often rejected as carbon-capture materials. Here we use a statistical mechanical model, parameterized by quantum mechanical data, to suggest that metal-organic frameworks can be used to separate CO 2 from a typical flue gas mixture when used under nonequilibrium conditions. The origin of this selectivity is an emergent gas-separation mechanism that results from the acquisition by different gas types of different mobilities within a crowded framework. The resulting distribution of gas types within the frameworkmore » is in general spatially and dynamically heterogeneous. Our results suggest that relaxing the requirement of equilibrium can substantially increase the parameter space of conditions and materials for which selective gas capture can be effected.« less

Two-step rapid sulfur capture. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-04-01

The primary goal of this program was to test the technical and economic feasibility of a novel dry sorbent injection process called the Two-Step Rapid Sulfur Capture process for several advanced coal utilization systems. The Two-Step Rapid Sulfur Capture process consists of limestone activation in a high temperature auxiliary burner for short times followed by sorbent quenching in a lower temperature sulfur containing coal combustion gas. The Two-Step Rapid Sulfur Capture process is based on the Non-Equilibrium Sulfur Capture process developed by the Energy Technology Office of Textron Defense Systems (ETO/TDS). Based on the Non-Equilibrium Sulfur Capture studies the rangemore » of conditions for optimum sorbent activation were thought to be: activation temperature > 2,200 K for activation times in the range of 10--30 ms. Therefore, the aim of the Two-Step process is to create a very active sorbent (under conditions similar to the bomb reactor) and complete the sulfur reaction under thermodynamically favorable conditions. A flow facility was designed and assembled to simulate the temperature, time, stoichiometry, and sulfur gas concentration prevalent in the advanced coal utilization systems such as gasifiers, fluidized bed combustors, mixed-metal oxide desulfurization systems, diesel engines, and gas turbines.« less

PRODIGEN: visualizing the probability landscape of stochastic gene regulatory networks in state and time space.

PubMed

Ma, Chihua; Luciani, Timothy; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie; Marai, G Elisabeta

2017-02-15

Visualizing the complex probability landscape of stochastic gene regulatory networks can further biologists' understanding of phenotypic behavior associated with specific genes. We present PRODIGEN (PRObability DIstribution of GEne Networks), a web-based visual analysis tool for the systematic exploration of probability distributions over simulation time and state space in such networks. PRODIGEN was designed in collaboration with bioinformaticians who research stochastic gene networks. The analysis tool combines in a novel way existing, expanded, and new visual encodings to capture the time-varying characteristics of probability distributions: spaghetti plots over one dimensional projection, heatmaps of distributions over 2D projections, enhanced with overlaid time curves to display temporal changes, and novel individual glyphs of state information corresponding to particular peaks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the tool through two case studies on the computed probabilistic landscape of a gene regulatory network and of a toggle-switch network. Domain expert feedback indicates that our visual approach can help biologists: 1) visualize probabilities of stable states, 2) explore the temporal probability distributions, and 3) discover small peaks in the probability landscape that have potential relation to specific diseases.

Cyclic carbonation calcination studies of limestone and dolomite for CO{sub 2} separation from combustion flue gases - article no. 011801

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Senthoorselvan, S.; Gleis, S.; Hartmut, S.

2009-01-15

Naturally occurring limestone and dolomite samples, originating from different geographical locations, were tested as potential sorbents for carbonation/calcination based CO{sub 2} capture from combustion flue gases. Samples have been studied in a thermogravimetric analyzer under simulated flue gas conditions at three calcination temperatures, viz., 750{sup o}C, 875{sup o}C, and 930{sup o}C for four carbonation calcination reaction (CCR) cycles. The dolomite sample exhibited the highest rate of carbonation than the tested limestones. At the third cycle, its CO{sub 2} capture capacity per kilogram of the sample was nearly equal to that of Gotland, the highest reacting limestone tested. At the fourthmore » cycle it surpassed Gotland, despite the fact that the CaCO{sub 3} content of the Sibbo dolomite was only 2/3 of that of the Gotland. Decay coefficients were calculated by a curve fitting exercise and its value is lowest for the Sibbo dolomite. That means, most probably its capture capacity per kilogram of the sample would remain higher well beyond the fourth cycle. There was a strong correlation between the calcination temperature, the specific surface area of the calcined samples, and the degree of carbonation. It was observed that the higher the calcination temperature, the lower the sorbent reactivity. For a given limestone/dolomite sample, sorbents CO{sub 2} capture capacity depended on the number of CCR cycles and the calcination temperature. According to the equilibrium thermodynamics, the CO{sub 2} partial pressure in the calciner should be lowered to lower the calcination temperature. This can be achieved by additional steam supply into the calciner. Steam could then be condensed in an external condenser to single out the CO{sub 2} stream from the exit gas mixture of the calciner. A calciner design based on this concept is illustrated.« less

Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wells, Jesica; Somers, Jeffrey T.; Newby, N.; Gernhardt, Michael

2014-01-01

The NASA Occupant Protection Group is charged with ensuring crewmembers are protected during all dynamic phases of spaceflight. Previous work with outside experts has led to the development of a definition of acceptable risk (DAR) for space capsule vehicles. The DAR defines allowable probability rates for various categories of injuries. An important question is how to validate these probabilities for a given vehicle. One approach is to impact test human volunteers under projected nominal landing loads. The main drawback is the large number of subject tests required to attain a reasonable level of confidence that the injury probability rates would meet those outlined in the DAR. An alternative is to mine existing databases containing human responses to impact. Testing an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at the same human-exposure levels could yield a range of ATD responses that would meet DAR. As one aspect of future vehicle validation, the ATD could be tested in the vehicle's seat and suit configuration at nominal landing loads and compared with the ATD responses supported by the human data set. This approach could reduce the number of human-volunteer tests NASA would need to conduct to validate that a vehicle meets occupant protection standards. METHODS: The U.S. Air Force has recorded hundreds of human responses to frontal, lateral, and spinal impacts at many acceleration levels and pulse durations. All of this data are stored on the Collaborative Biomechanics Data Network (CBDN), which is maintained by the Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The test device for human occupant restraint (THOR) ATD was impact tested on WPAFB's horizontal impulse accelerator (HIA) matching human-volunteer exposures on the HIA to 5 frontal and 3 spinal loading conditions. No human injuries occurred as a result of these impact conditions. Peak THOR response variables for neck axial tension and compression, and thoracic-spine axial compression were collected. Maximal chest deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC- 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury-risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

Prediction of Conditional Probability of Survival After Surgery for Gastric Cancer: A Study Based on Eastern and Western Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Zhong, Qing; Chen, Qi-Yue; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Huang, Chang-Ming

2018-04-20

The dynamic prognosis of patients who have undergone curative surgery for gastric cancer has yet to be reported. Our objective was to devise an accurate tool for predicting the conditional probability of survival for these patients. We analyzed 11,551 gastric cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Two-thirds of the patients were selected randomly for the development set and one-third for the validation set. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the conditional probability of overall survival and the conditional probability of disease-specific survival, using conditional survival methods. We then applied these nomograms to the 4,001 patients in the database from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China, one of the most active Chinese institutes. The 5-year conditional probability of overall survival of the patients was 41.6% immediately after resection and increased to 52.8%, 68.2%, and 80.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years after gastrectomy. The 5-year conditional probability of disease-specific survival "increased" from 48.9% at the time of gastrectomy to 59.8%, 74.7%, and 85.5% for patients surviving 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Sex; race; age; depth of tumor invasion; lymph node metastasis; and tumor size, site, and grade were associated with overall survival and disease-specific survival (P <.05). Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results validation set, the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.77, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after gastrectomy, respectively. Within the other validation set from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 4,001), the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.76, 0.79, 0.77, and 0.77 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The accuracy of the conditional probability of disease-specific survival model was also favorable. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. Based on the large Eastern and Western data sets, we developed and validated the first conditional nomogram for prediction of conditional probability of survival for patients with gastric cancer to allow consideration of the duration of survivorship. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

PubMed

Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

2013-02-01

Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Remote Measurements of Heart and Respiration Rates for Telemedicine

PubMed Central

Qian, Yi; Tsien, Joe Z.

2013-01-01

Non-contact and low-cost measurements of heart and respiration rates are highly desirable for telemedicine. Here, we describe a novel technique to extract blood volume pulse and respiratory wave from a single channel images captured by a video camera for both day and night conditions. The principle of our technique is to uncover the temporal dynamics of heart beat and breathing rate through delay-coordinate transformation and independent component analysis-based deconstruction of the single channel images. Our method further achieves robust elimination of false positives via applying ratio-variation probability distributions filtering approaches. Moreover, it enables a much needed low-cost means for preventing sudden infant death syndrome in new born infants and detecting stroke and heart attack in elderly population in home environments. This noncontact-based method can also be applied to a variety of animal model organisms for biomedical research. PMID:24115996

High pressure jet flame numerical analysis of CO emissions by means of the flamelet generated manifolds technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donini, A.; Martin, S. M.; Bastiaans, R. J. M.; van Oijen, J. A.; de Goey, L. P. H.

2013-10-01

In the present paper a computational analysis of a high pressure confined premixed turbulent methane/air jet flames is presented. In this scope, chemistry is reduced by the use of the Flamelet Generated Manifold method [1] and the fluid flow is modeled in an LES and RANS context. The reaction evolution is described by the reaction progress variable, the heat loss is described by the enthalpy and the turbulence effect on the reaction is represented by the progress variable variance. The interaction between chemistry and turbulence is considered through a presumed probability density function (PDF) approach. The use of FGM as a combustion model shows that combustion features at gas turbine conditions can be satisfactorily reproduced with a reasonable computational effort. Furthermore, the present analysis indicates that the physical and chemical processes controlling carbon monoxide (CO) emissions can be captured only by means of unsteady simulations.

Cross over of recurrence networks to random graphs and random geometric graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, Rinku; Harikrishnan, K. P.; Misra, R.; Ambika, G.

2017-02-01

Recurrence networks are complex networks constructed from the time series of chaotic dynamical systems where the connection between two nodes is limited by the recurrence threshold. This condition makes the topology of every recurrence network unique with the degree distribution determined by the probability density variations of the representative attractor from which it is constructed. Here we numerically investigate the properties of recurrence networks from standard low-dimensional chaotic attractors using some basic network measures and show how the recurrence networks are different from random and scale-free networks. In particular, we show that all recurrence networks can cross over to random geometric graphs by adding sufficient amount of noise to the time series and into the classical random graphs by increasing the range of interaction to the system size. We also highlight the effectiveness of a combined plot of characteristic path length and clustering coefficient in capturing the small changes in the network characteristics.

Diesel particulate abatement via wall-flow traps based on perovskite catalysts.

PubMed

Fino, Debora; Russo, Nunzio; Saracco, Guido; Specchia, Vito

2003-01-01

It is probably redundant to stress how extensive are nowadays the attempts to reduce the diesel particulate emissions from automotive and stationary sources. The present paper looks into a technology relied on a catalytic trap based on a SiC wall-flow monolith lined with suitable catalysts for the sake of promoting a more complete and faster regeneration after particulate capture. All the major steps of the catalytic filter preparation are dealt with, including: the synthesis and choice of the proper catalyst and trap materials, the development of an in situ catalyst deposition technique, the bench testing of the derived catalytic wall-flow. The best catalyst selected was the perovskite La0.9K0.1Cr0.9O3-delta. The filtration efficiency and the pressure drop of the catalytic and non-catalytic monoliths were evaluated on a diesel engine bench under various operating conditions.

Evaporation and condensation at a liquid surface. I. Argon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasuoka, Kenji; Matsumoto, Mitsuhiro; Kataoka, Yosuke

1994-11-01

Molecular dynamics computer simulations were carried out to investigate the dynamics of evaporation and condensation for argon at the temperature of 80 and 100 K. From the decrease of the survival probability of vapor molecules, the ratio of self reflection to collision is estimated to be 12%-15%, only weakly dependent on the temperature. This suggests that argon vapor molecules are in the condition of almost complete capture, and the condensation is considered to be a barrierless process. The total ratio of reflection which is evaluated with the flux correlation of condensation and evaporation is 20% at both temperature. The difference between these two ratios of reflection is ascribed to a phenomenon that vapor molecules colliding with the surface drive out other liquid molecules. This molecule exchange at the surface is as important as the self-reflection, and the conventional picture of condensation as a unimolecular chemical reaction is not appropriate.

Isolation of a Diatom Frustule Fragment from the Lower Stratosphere (22-27Km)-EVIDENCE for a Cosmic Origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wainwright, Milton; Rose, Christopher E.; Baker, Alexander J.; Briston, J. K.; Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

2013-03-01

Sampling of the stratosphere at heights between 22 and 27 km was carried out in the UK on 31st July 2013 using balloon-borne equipment carrying aseptically clean electron microscope stubs onto which aerosols were directly captured. The experiment revealed the presence of a diatom frustule captured from a height of >25km. On account of the very short residence time of particles of diatom size and mass at these heights, we argue for its incidence from space, with a probable origin in the watery environment of a comet.

Optimization of ELISA Conditions to Quantify Colorectal Cancer Antigen-Antibody Complex Protein (GA733-FcK) Expressed in Transgenic Plant

PubMed Central

Ahn, Junsik; Lee, Kyung Jin

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to optimize ELISA conditions to quantify the colorectal cancer antigen GA733 linked to the Fc antibody fragment fused to KDEL, an ER retention motif (GA733-FcK) expressed in transgenic plant. Variable conditions of capture antibody, blocking buffer, and detection antibody for ELISA were optimized with application of leaf extracts from transgenic plant expressing GA733-FcK. In detection antibody, anti-EpCAM/CD362 IgG recognizing the GA733 did not detect any GA733-FcK whereas anti-human Fc IgG recognizing the human Fc existed in plant leaf extracts. For blocking buffer conditions, 3% BSA buffer clearly blocked the plate, compared to the 5% skim-milk buffer. For capture antibody, monoclonal antibody (MAb) CO17-1A was applied to coat the plate with different amounts (1, 0.5, and 0.25 μg/well). Among the amounts of the capture antibody, 1 and 0.5 μg/well (capture antibody) showed similar absorbance, whereas 0.25 μg/well of the capture antibody showed significantly less absorbance. Taken together, the optimized conditions to quantify plant-derived GA733-FcK were 0.5 μg/well of MAb CO17-1A per well for the capture antibody, 3% BSA for blocking buffer, and anti-human Fc conjugated HRP. To confirm the optimized ELISA conditions, correlation analysis was conducted between the quantified amount of GA733-FcK in ELISA and its protein density values of different leaf samples in Western blot. The co-efficient value R2 between the ELISA quantified value and protein density was 0.85 (p<0.01), which indicates that the optimized ELISA conditions feasibly provides quantitative information of GA733-FcK expression in transgenic plant. PMID:24555929

Option volatility and the acceleration Lagrangian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Cao, Yang

2014-01-01

This paper develops a volatility formula for option on an asset from an acceleration Lagrangian model and the formula is calibrated with market data. The Black-Scholes model is a simpler case that has a velocity dependent Lagrangian. The acceleration Lagrangian is defined, and the classical solution of the system in Euclidean time is solved by choosing proper boundary conditions. The conditional probability distribution of final position given the initial position is obtained from the transition amplitude. The volatility is the standard deviation of the conditional probability distribution. Using the conditional probability and the path integral method, the martingale condition is applied, and one of the parameters in the Lagrangian is fixed. The call option price is obtained using the conditional probability and the path integral method.

Multiple electron processes of He and Ne by proton impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terekhin, Pavel Nikolaevich; Montenegro, Pablo; Quinto, Michele; Monti, Juan; Fojon, Omar; Rivarola, Roberto

2016-05-01

A detailed investigation of multiple electron processes (single and multiple ionization, single capture, transfer-ionization) of He and Ne is presented for proton impact at intermediate and high collision energies. Exclusive absolute cross sections for these processes have been obtained by calculation of transition probabilities in the independent electron and independent event models as a function of impact parameter in the framework of the continuum distorted wave-eikonal initial state theory. A binomial analysis is employed to calculate exclusive probabilities. The comparison with available theoretical and experimental results shows that exclusive probabilities are needed for a reliable description of the experimental data. The developed approach can be used for obtaining the input database for modeling multiple electron processes of charged particles passing through the matter.

A Model-Free Machine Learning Method for Risk Classification and Survival Probability Prediction.

PubMed

Geng, Yuan; Lu, Wenbin; Zhang, Hao Helen

2014-01-01

Risk classification and survival probability prediction are two major goals in survival data analysis since they play an important role in patients' risk stratification, long-term diagnosis, and treatment selection. In this article, we propose a new model-free machine learning framework for risk classification and survival probability prediction based on weighted support vector machines. The new procedure does not require any specific parametric or semiparametric model assumption on data, and is therefore capable of capturing nonlinear covariate effects. We use numerous simulation examples to demonstrate finite sample performance of the proposed method under various settings. Applications to a glioma tumor data and a breast cancer gene expression survival data are shown to illustrate the new methodology in real data analysis.

Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.; Ashwworth, G. R.; Winter, W. R.

1980-01-01

Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

A likelihood framework for joint estimation of salmon abundance and migratory timing using telemetric mark-recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Gates, Kenneth S.; Palmer, Douglas E.

2010-01-01

Many fisheries for Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. are actively managed to meet escapement goal objectives. In fisheries where the demand for surplus production is high, an extensive assessment program is needed to achieve the opposing objectives of allowing adequate escapement and fully exploiting the available surplus. Knowledge of abundance is a critical element of such assessment programs. Abundance estimation using mark—recapture experiments in combination with telemetry has become common in recent years, particularly within Alaskan river systems. Fish are typically captured and marked in the lower river while migrating in aggregations of individuals from multiple populations. Recapture data are obtained using telemetry receivers that are co-located with abundance assessment projects near spawning areas, which provide large sample sizes and information on population-specific mark rates. When recapture data are obtained from multiple populations, unequal mark rates may reflect a violation of the assumption of homogeneous capture probabilities. A common analytical strategy is to test the hypothesis that mark rates are homogeneous and combine all recapture data if the test is not significant. However, mark rates are often low, and a test of homogeneity may lack sufficient power to detect meaningful differences among populations. In addition, differences among mark rates may provide information that could be exploited during parameter estimation. We present a temporally stratified mark—recapture model that permits capture probabilities and migratory timing through the capture area to vary among strata. Abundance information obtained from a subset of populations after the populations have segregated for spawning is jointly modeled with telemetry distribution data by use of a likelihood function. Maximization of the likelihood produces estimates of the abundance and timing of individual populations migrating through the capture area, thus yielding substantially more information than the total abundance estimate provided by the conventional approach. The utility of the model is illustrated with data for coho salmon O. kisutch from the Kasilof River in south-central Alaska.

Annual survival and population estimates of Mountain Plovers in Southern Phillips County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2003-01-01

Information about the demography of declining species is especially relevant to their conservation and future recovery. Knowledge of survival rates and population size can be used to assess long-term viability and population trends, both of which are of interest to conservation biologists. We used capture–recapture techniques to study the demography of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, in 1995–2000. We used the robust design to estimate annual survival (φ), conditional capture (p and r) and recapture (c) probabilities, and the annual population size (N) in the presence of temporary emigration. The results support age-specific differences in annual survival that are a function of juvenile body mass and are correlated with the area occupied by prairie dogs. Body mass had a positive effect on juvenile survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of body mass on juvenile survival was 0.77 (95% ci = 0.25, 1.28) on a logit scale. A measure of plover habitat (the area occupied by prairie dogs) appeared to have no effect on survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on survival was –0.00004 (95% ci = –0.00003, –0.0001) on a logit scale. Estimated annual apparent survival rates were 0.46–0.49 for juveniles and 0.68 for adult plovers. Using these estimates, the life span of a Mountain Plover was 1.92 ± 0.17 years (mean ± 1 se) from time of capture as a chick. Resighting rates positively influenced capture probabilities; the slope coefficient for the additive resighting effect was –0.49 (95% ci = –0.86, –0.11) on a logit scale. The size of this adult Mountain Plover population was estimated at 95–180 adults annually. Population size closely tracked annual changes in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs, with both plovers and prairie dogs rapidly recovering from an outbreak of sylvatic plague in the mid-1990s. Given the low annual survival rates and low mean life expectancy of Mountain Plovers, we conclude that sustainable local populations are currently maintained by annual rates of productivity greater than those for other ground-nesting birds.

Electron emission from transfer ionization reaction in 30 keV amu‑1 He 2+ on Ar collision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaya-Tapia, A.; Antillón, A.; Estrada, C. D.

2018-06-01

A model is presented that describes the transfer ionization process in H{e}2++Ar collision at a projectile energy of 30 keV amu‑1. It is based on a semiclassical independent-particle close-coupling method that yields a reasonable agreement between calculated and experimental values of the total single-ionization and single-capture cross sections. It is found that the transfer ionization reaction is predominantly carried out through simultaneous capture and ionization, rather than by sequential processes. The transfer-ionization differential cross section in energy that is obtained satisfactorily reproduces the global behavior of the experimental data. Additionally, the probabilities of capture and ionization as function of the impact parameter for H{e}2++A{r}+ and H{e}++A{r}+ collisions are calculated, as far as we know, for the first time. The results suggest that the model captures essential elements that describe the two-electron transfer ionization process and could be applied to systems and processes of two electrons.

Nucleosynthesis: Stellar and Solar Abundances and Atomic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowan, John J.; Lawler, James E.; Sneden, Christopher; DenHartog, E. A.; Collier, Jason; Dodge, Homer L.

2006-01-01

Abundance observations indicate the presence of often surprisingly large amounts of neutron capture (i.e., s- and r-process) elements in old Galactic halo and globular cluster stars. These observations provide insight into the nature of the earliest generations of stars in the Galaxy the progenitors of the halo stars responsible for neutron-capture synthesis. Comparisons of abundance trends can be used to understand the chemical evolution of the Galaxy and the nature of heavy element nucleosynthesis. In addition age determinations, based upon long-lived radioactive nuclei abundances, can now be obtained. These stellar abundance determinations depend critically upon atomic data. Improved laboratory transition probabilities have been recently obtained for a number of elements. These new gf values have been used to greatly refine the abundances of neutron-capture elemental abundances in the solar photosphere and in very metal-poor Galactic halo stars. The newly determined stellar abundances are surprisingly consistent with a (relative) Solar System r-process pattern, and are also consistent with abundance predictions expected from such neutron-capture nucleosynthesis.

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions

PubMed Central

Storkel, Holly L.; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-01-01

Purpose Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Method Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. Results The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. Conclusions As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise. PMID:27788276

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions.

PubMed

Han, Min Kyung; Storkel, Holly L; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-11-01

Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise.

Ubiquitous Log Odds: A Common Representation of Probability and Frequency Distortion in Perception, Action, and Cognition

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hang; Maloney, Laurence T.

2012-01-01

In decision from experience, the source of probability information affects how probability is distorted in the decision task. Understanding how and why probability is distorted is a key issue in understanding the peculiar character of experience-based decision. We consider how probability information is used not just in decision-making but also in a wide variety of cognitive, perceptual, and motor tasks. Very similar patterns of distortion of probability/frequency information have been found in visual frequency estimation, frequency estimation based on memory, signal detection theory, and in the use of probability information in decision-making under risk and uncertainty. We show that distortion of probability in all cases is well captured as linear transformations of the log odds of frequency and/or probability, a model with a slope parameter, and an intercept parameter. We then consider how task and experience influence these two parameters and the resulting distortion of probability. We review how the probability distortions change in systematic ways with task and report three experiments on frequency distortion where the distortions change systematically in the same task. We found that the slope of frequency distortions decreases with the sample size, which is echoed by findings in decision from experience. We review previous models of the representation of uncertainty and find that none can account for the empirical findings. PMID:22294978

The effect of incremental changes in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word learning by preschool children

PubMed Central

Storkel, Holly L.; Bontempo, Daniel E.; Aschenbrenner, Andrew J.; Maekawa, Junko; Lee, Su-Yeon

2013-01-01

Purpose Phonotactic probability or neighborhood density have predominately been defined using gross distinctions (i.e., low vs. high). The current studies examined the influence of finer changes in probability (Experiment 1) and density (Experiment 2) on word learning. Method The full range of probability or density was examined by sampling five nonwords from each of four quartiles. Three- and 5-year-old children received training on nonword-nonobject pairs. Learning was measured in a picture-naming task immediately following training and 1-week after training. Results were analyzed using multi-level modeling. Results A linear spline model best captured nonlinearities in phonotactic probability. Specifically word learning improved as probability increased in the lowest quartile, worsened as probability increased in the midlow quartile, and then remained stable and poor in the two highest quartiles. An ordinary linear model sufficiently described neighborhood density. Here, word learning improved as density increased across all quartiles. Conclusion Given these different patterns, phonotactic probability and neighborhood density appear to influence different word learning processes. Specifically, phonotactic probability may affect recognition that a sound sequence is an acceptable word in the language and is a novel word for the child, whereas neighborhood density may influence creation of a new representation in long-term memory. PMID:23882005

The Southampton-York Natural Scenes (SYNS) dataset: Statistics of surface attitude

PubMed Central

Adams, Wendy J.; Elder, James H.; Graf, Erich W.; Leyland, Julian; Lugtigheid, Arthur J.; Muryy, Alexander

2016-01-01

Recovering 3D scenes from 2D images is an under-constrained task; optimal estimation depends upon knowledge of the underlying scene statistics. Here we introduce the Southampton-York Natural Scenes dataset (SYNS: https://syns.soton.ac.uk), which provides comprehensive scene statistics useful for understanding biological vision and for improving machine vision systems. In order to capture the diversity of environments that humans encounter, scenes were surveyed at random locations within 25 indoor and outdoor categories. Each survey includes (i) spherical LiDAR range data (ii) high-dynamic range spherical imagery and (iii) a panorama of stereo image pairs. We envisage many uses for the dataset and present one example: an analysis of surface attitude statistics, conditioned on scene category and viewing elevation. Surface normals were estimated using a novel adaptive scale selection algorithm. Across categories, surface attitude below the horizon is dominated by the ground plane (0° tilt). Near the horizon, probability density is elevated at 90°/270° tilt due to vertical surfaces (trees, walls). Above the horizon, probability density is elevated near 0° slant due to overhead structure such as ceilings and leaf canopies. These structural regularities represent potentially useful prior assumptions for human and machine observers, and may predict human biases in perceived surface attitude. PMID:27782103

Disease in a dynamic landscape: host behavior and wildfire reduce amphibian chytrid infection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Ware, Joy L.; Corn, Paul Stephen

2013-01-01

Disturbances are often expected to magnify effects of disease, but these effects may depend on the ecology, behavior, and life history of both hosts and pathogens. In many ecosystems, wildfire is the dominant natural disturbance and thus could directly or indirectly affect dynamics of many diseases. To determine how probability of infection by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) varies relative to habitat use by individuals, wildfire, and host characteristics, we sampled 404 boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) across Glacier National Park, Montana (USA). Bd causes chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease linked with widespread amphibian declines, including the boreal toad. Probability of infection was similar for females and the combined group of males and juveniles. However, only 9% of terrestrial toads were infected compared to >30% of aquatic toads, and toads captured in recently burned areas were half as likely to be infected as toads in unburned areas. We suspect these large differences in infection reflect habitat choices by individuals that affect pathogen exposure and persistence, especially in burned forests where warm, arid conditions could limit Bd growth. Our results show that natural disturbances such as wildfire and the resulting diverse habitats can influence infection across large landscapes, potentially maintaining local refuges and host behaviors that facilitate evolution of disease resistance.

Detection probability of an in-stream passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag detection system for juvenile salmonids in the Klamath River, northern California, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Hayes, Brian; Wright, Katrina

2012-01-01

A series of in-stream passive integrated transponder (PIT) detection antennas installed across the Klamath River in August 2010 were tested using tagged fish in the summer of 2011. Six pass-by antennas were constructed and anchored to the bottom of the Klamath River at a site between the Shasta and Scott Rivers. Two of the six antennas malfunctioned during the spring of 2011 and two pass-through antennas were installed near the opposite shoreline prior to system testing. The detection probability of the PIT tag detection system was evaluated using yearling coho salmon implanted with a PIT tag and a radio transmitter and then released into the Klamath River slightly downstream of Iron Gate Dam. Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods were used to estimate the detection probability of the PIT tag detection system based on detections of PIT tags there and detections of radio transmitters at radio-telemetry detection systems downstream. One of the 43 PIT- and radio-tagged fish released was detected by the PIT tag detection system and 23 were detected by the radio-telemetry detection systems. The estimated detection probability of the PIT tag detection system was 0.043 (standard error 0.042). Eight PIT-tagged fish from other studies also were detected. Detections at the PIT tag detection system were at the two pass-through antennas and the pass-by antenna adjacent to them. Above average river discharge likely was a factor in the low detection probability of the PIT tag detection system. High discharges dislodged two power cables leaving 12 meters of the river width unsampled for PIT detections and resulted in water depths greater than the read distance of the antennas, which allowed fish to pass over much of the system with little chance of being detected. Improvements in detection probability may be expected under river discharge conditions where water depth over the antennas is within maximum read distance of the antennas. Improvements also may be expected if additional arrays of antennas are used.

A Lakatosian Encounter with Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chick, Helen

2010-01-01

There is much to be learned and pondered by reading "Proofs and Refutations" by Imre Lakatos (Lakatos, 1976). It highlights the importance of mathematical definitions, and how definitions evolve to capture the essence of the object they are defining. It also provides an exhilarating encounter with the ups and downs of the mathematical reasoning…

78 FR 18974 - Increasing Market and Planning Efficiency Through Improved Software; Notice of Technical...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-28

... bring together experts from diverse backgrounds and experiences including electric system operators... transmission switching; AC optimal power flow modeling; and use of active and dynamic transmission ratings. In... variability of the system, including forecast error? [cir] How can outage probability be captured in...

IMPLICATIONS OF USING ROBUST BAYESIAN ANALYSIS TO REPRESENT DIVERSE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

In our previous research, we showed that robust Bayesian methods can be used in environmental modeling to define a set of probability distributions for key parameters that captures the effects of expert disagreement, ambiguity, or ignorance. This entire set can then be update...

Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

Treesearch

Robin E. Russell; J. Andrew Royle; Richard Desimone; Michael K. Schwartz; Victoria L. Edwards; Kristy P. Pilgrim; Kevin S. McKelvey

2012-01-01

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management...

Do key dimensions of seed and seedling functional trait variation capture variation in recruitment probability?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

1. Plant functional traits provide a mechanistic basis for understanding ecological variation among plant species and the implications of this variation for species distribution, community assembly and restoration. 2. The bulk of our functional trait understanding, however, is centered on traits rel...

A comparison of abundance estimates from extended batch-marking and Jolly–Seber-type experiments

PubMed Central

Cowen, Laura L E; Besbeas, Panagiotis; Morgan, Byron J T; Schwarz, Carl J

2014-01-01

Little attention has been paid to the use of multi-sample batch-marking studies, as it is generally assumed that an individual's capture history is necessary for fully efficient estimates. However, recently, Huggins et al. (2010) present a pseudo-likelihood for a multi-sample batch-marking study where they used estimating equations to solve for survival and capture probabilities and then derived abundance estimates using a Horvitz–Thompson-type estimator. We have developed and maximized the likelihood for batch-marking studies. We use data simulated from a Jolly–Seber-type study and convert this to what would have been obtained from an extended batch-marking study. We compare our abundance estimates obtained from the Crosbie–Manly–Arnason–Schwarz (CMAS) model with those of the extended batch-marking model to determine the efficiency of collecting and analyzing batch-marking data. We found that estimates of abundance were similar for all three estimators: CMAS, Huggins, and our likelihood. Gains are made when using unique identifiers and employing the CMAS model in terms of precision; however, the likelihood typically had lower mean square error than the pseudo-likelihood method of Huggins et al. (2010). When faced with designing a batch-marking study, researchers can be confident in obtaining unbiased abundance estimators. Furthermore, they can design studies in order to reduce mean square error by manipulating capture probabilities and sample size. PMID:24558576

High Temperature Polybenzimidazole Hollow Fiber Membranes for Hydrogen Separation and Carbon Dioxide Capture from Synthesis Gas

DOE PAGES

Singh, Rajinder P.; Dahe, Ganpat J.; Dudeck, Kevin W.; ...

2014-12-31

Sustainable reliance on hydrocarbon feedstocks for energy generation requires CO₂ separation technology development for energy efficient carbon capture from industrial mixed gas streams. High temperature H₂ selective glassy polymer membranes are an attractive option for energy efficient H₂/CO₂ separations in advanced power production schemes with integrated carbon capture. They enable high overall process efficiencies by providing energy efficient CO₂ separations at process relevant operating conditions and correspondingly, minimized parasitic energy losses. Polybenzimidazole (PBI)-based materials have demonstrated commercially attractive H₂/CO₂ separation characteristics and exceptional tolerance to hydrocarbon fuel derived synthesis (syngas) gas operating conditions and chemical environments. To realize a commerciallymore » attractive carbon capture technology based on these PBI materials, development of high performance, robust PBI hollow fiber membranes (HFMs) is required. In this work, we discuss outcomes of our recent efforts to demonstrate and optimize the fabrication and performance of PBI HFMs for use in pre-combustion carbon capture schemes. These efforts have resulted in PBI HFMs with commercially attractive fabrication protocols, defect minimized structures, and commercially attractive permselectivity characteristics at IGCC syngas process relevant conditions. The H₂/CO₂ separation performance of these PBI HFMs presented in this document regarding realistic process conditions is greater than that of any other polymeric system reported to-date.« less

Thermodynamic assessment of microencapsulated sodium carbonate slurry for carbon capture

DOE PAGES

Stolaroff, Joshuah K.; Bourcier, William L.

2014-01-01

Micro-encapsulated Carbon Sorbents (MECS) are a new class of carbon capture materials consisting of a CO₂- absorbing liquid solvent contained within solid, CO₂-permeable, polymer shells. MECS enhance the rate of CO₂ absorption for solvents with slow kinetics and prevent solid precipitates from scaling and fouling equipment, two factors that have previously limited the use of sodium carbonate solution for carbon capture. Here, we examine the thermodynamics of sodium carbonate slurries for carbon capture. We model the vapour-liquid-solid equilibria of sodium carbonate and find several features that can contribute to an energy-efficient capture process: very high CO₂ pressures in stripping conditions,more » relatively low water vapour pressures in stripping conditions, and good swing capacity. The potential energy savings compared with an MEA system are discussed.« less

Sublethal effects of catch-and-release fishing: measuring capture stress, fish impairment, and predation risk using a condition index

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Matthew D.; Patino, Reynaldo; Tolan, J.M.; Strauss, R.E.; Diamond, S.

2009-01-01

The sublethal effects of simulated capture of red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) were analysed using physiological responses, condition indexing, and performance variables. Simulated catch-and-release fishing included combinations of depth of capture and thermocline exposure reflective of environmental conditions experienced in the Gulf of Mexico. Frequency of occurrence of barotrauma and lack of reflex response exhibited considerable individual variation. When combined into a single condition or impairment index, individual variation was reduced, and impairment showed significant increases as depth increased and with the addition of thermocline exposure. Performance variables, such as burst swimming speed (BSS) and simulated predator approach distance (AD), were also significantly different by depth. BSSs and predator ADs decreased with increasing depth, were lowest immediately after release, and were affected for up to 15 min, with longer recovery times required as depth increased. The impairment score developed was positively correlated with cortisol concentration and negatively correlated with both BSS and simulated predator AD. The impairment index proved to be an efficient method to estimate the overall impairment of red snapper in the laboratory simulations of capture and shows promise for use in field conditions, to estimate release mortality and vulnerability to predation.

Stochastic characteristics and Second Law violations of atomic fluids in Couette flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Bharath V.; Karimi, Pouyan; Ostoja-Starzewski, Martin

2018-04-01

Using Non-equilibrium Molecular Dynamics (NEMD) simulations, we study the statistical properties of an atomic fluid undergoing planar Couette flow, in which particles interact via a Lennard-Jones potential. We draw a connection between local density contrast and temporal fluctuations in the shear stress, which arise naturally through the equivalence between the dissipation function and entropy production according to the fluctuation theorem. We focus on the shear stress and the spatio-temporal density fluctuations and study the autocorrelations and spectral densities of the shear stress. The bispectral density of the shear stress is used to measure the degree of departure from a Gaussian model and the degree of nonlinearity induced in the system owing to the applied strain rate. More evidence is provided by the probability density function of the shear stress. We use the Information Theory to account for the departure from Gaussian statistics and to develop a more general probability distribution function that captures this broad range of effects. By accounting for negative shear stress increments, we show how this distribution preserves the violations of the Second Law of Thermodynamics observed in planar Couette flow of atomic fluids, and also how it captures the non-Gaussian nature of the system by allowing for non-zero higher moments. We also demonstrate how the temperature affects the band-width of the shear-stress and how the density affects its Power Spectral Density, thus determining the conditions under which the shear-stress acts is a narrow-band or wide-band random process. We show that changes in the statistical characteristics of the parameters of interest occur at a critical strain rate at which an ordering transition occurs in the fluid causing shear thinning and affecting its stability. A critical strain rate of this kind is also predicted by the Loose-Hess stability criterion.

Beginning Bayes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erickson, Tim

2017-01-01

Understanding a Bayesian perspective demands comfort with conditional probability and with probabilities that appear to change as we acquire additional information. This paper suggests a simple context in conditional probability that helps develop the understanding students would need for a successful introduction to Bayesian reasoning.

Thermal neutron capture cross section for 56Fe(n ,γ )

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firestone, R. B.; Belgya, T.; Krtička, M.; Bečvář, F.; Szentmikloṡi, L.; Tomandl, I.

2017-01-01

The 56Fe(n ,γ ) thermal neutron capture cross section and the 57Fe level scheme populated by this reaction have been investigated in this work. Singles γ -ray spectra were measured with an isotopically enriched 56Fe target using the guided cold neutron beam at the Budapest Reactor, and γ γ -coincidence data were measured with a natural Fe target at the LWR-15 research reactor in Řež, Czech Republic. A detailed level scheme consisting of 448 γ rays populating/depopulating 97 levels and the capture state in 57Fe has been constructed, and ≈99 % of the total transition intensity has been placed. The transition probability of the 352-keV γ ray was determined to be Pγ(352 ) =11.90 ±0.07 per 100 neutron captures. The 57Fe level scheme is substantially revised from earlier work and ≈33 previously assigned levels could not be confirmed while a comparable number of new levels were added. The 57Feγ -ray cross sections were internally calibrated with respect to 1H and 32Sγ -ray cross section standards using iron(III) acetylacetonate (C15H21FeO6) and iron pyrite (FeS2) targets. The thermal neutron cross section for production of the 352-keV γ -ray cross section was determined to be σγ(352 ) =0.2849 ±0.015 b. The total 56Fe(n ,γ ) thermal radiative neutron cross section is derived from the 352-keV γ -ray cross section and transition probability as σ0=2.394 ±0.019 b. A least-squares fit of the γ rays to the level scheme gives the 57Fe neutron separation energy Sn=7646.183 ±0.018 keV.

The population of natural Earth satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granvik, Mikael; Vaubaillon, Jeremie; Jedicke, Robert

2012-03-01

We have for the first time calculated the population characteristics of the Earth’s irregular natural satellites (NESs) that are temporarily captured from the near-Earth-object (NEO) population. The steady-state NES size-frequency and residence-time distributions were determined under the dynamical influence of all the massive bodies in the Solar System (but mainly the Sun, Earth, and Moon) for NEOs of negligible mass. To this end, we compute the NES capture probability from the NEO population as a function of the latter’s heliocentric orbital elements and combine those results with the current best estimates for the NEO size-frequency and orbital distribution. At any given time there should be at least one NES of 1-m diameter orbiting the Earth. The average temporarily-captured orbiter (TCO; an object that makes at least one revolution around the Earth in a co-rotating coordinate system) completes (2.88 ± 0.82) rev around the Earth during a capture event that lasts (286 ± 18) d. We find a small preference for capture events starting in either January or July. Our results are consistent with the single known natural TCO, 2006 RH120, a few-meter diameter object that was captured for about a year starting in June 2006. We estimate that about 0.1% of all meteors impacting the Earth were TCOs.

European vegetation during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage-3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntley, Brian; Alfano, Mary J. o.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Pollard, Dave; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.; de Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis; Grüger, Eberhard; Watts, Bill

2003-03-01

European vegetation during representative "warm" and "cold" intervals of stage-3 was inferred from pollen analytical data. The inferred vegetation differs in character and spatial pattern from that of both fully glacial and fully interglacial conditions and exhibits contrasts between warm and cold intervals, consistent with other evidence for stage-3 palaeoenvironmental fluctuations. European vegetation thus appears to have been an integral component of millennial environmental fluctuations during stage-3; vegetation responded to this scale of environmental change and through feedback mechanisms may have had effects upon the environment. The pollen-inferred vegetation was compared with vegetation simulated using the BIOME 3.5 vegetation model for climatic conditions simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM2) nested within a coupled global climate and vegetation model (GENESIS-BIOME). Despite some discrepancies in detail, both approaches capture the principal features of the present vegetation of Europe. The simulated vegetation for stage-3 differs markedly from that inferred from pollen analytical data, implying substantial discrepancy between the simulated climate and that actually prevailing. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the simulated climate is too warm and probably has too short a winter season. These discrepancies may reflect incorrect specification of sea surface temperature or sea-ice conditions and may be exacerbated by vegetation-climate feedback in the coupled global model.

Delineating Facies Spatial Distribution by Integrating Ensemble Data Assimilation and Indicator Geostatistics with Level Set Transformation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammond, Glenn Edward; Song, Xuehang; Ye, Ming

A new approach is developed to delineate the spatial distribution of discrete facies (geological units that have unique distributions of hydraulic, physical, and/or chemical properties) conditioned not only on direct data (measurements directly related to facies properties, e.g., grain size distribution obtained from borehole samples) but also on indirect data (observations indirectly related to facies distribution, e.g., hydraulic head and tracer concentration). Our method integrates for the first time ensemble data assimilation with traditional transition probability-based geostatistics. The concept of level set is introduced to build shape parameterization that allows transformation between discrete facies indicators and continuous random variables. Themore » spatial structure of different facies is simulated by indicator models using conditioning points selected adaptively during the iterative process of data assimilation. To evaluate the new method, a two-dimensional semi-synthetic example is designed to estimate the spatial distribution and permeability of two distinct facies from transient head data induced by pumping tests. The example demonstrates that our new method adequately captures the spatial pattern of facies distribution by imposing spatial continuity through conditioning points. The new method also reproduces the overall response in hydraulic head field with better accuracy compared to data assimilation with no constraints on spatial continuity on facies.« less

A New Approach in Generating Meteorological Forecasts for Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting using Multivariate Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, S.; Madadgar, S.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

The reliability and accuracy of hydrological predictions are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including meteorological forcing, initial conditions, model parameters and model structure. To reduce the total uncertainty in hydrological applications, one approach is to reduce the uncertainty in meteorological forcing by using the statistical methods based on the conditional probability density functions (pdf). However, one of the requirements for current methods is to assume the Gaussian distribution for the marginal distribution of the observed and modeled meteorology. Here we propose a Bayesian approach based on Copula functions to develop the conditional distribution of precipitation forecast needed in deriving a hydrologic model for a sub-basin in the Columbia River Basin. Copula functions are introduced as an alternative approach in capturing the uncertainties related to meteorological forcing. Copulas are multivariate joint distribution of univariate marginal distributions, which are capable to model the joint behavior of variables with any level of correlation and dependency. The method is applied to the monthly forecast of CPC with 0.25x0.25 degree resolution to reproduce the PRISM dataset over 1970-2000. Results are compared with Ensemble Pre-Processor approach as a common procedure used by National Weather Service River forecast centers in reproducing observed climatology during a ten-year verification period (2000-2010).

Method of conditional moments (MCM) for the Chemical Master Equation: a unified framework for the method of moments and hybrid stochastic-deterministic models.

PubMed

Hasenauer, J; Wolf, V; Kazeroonian, A; Theis, F J

2014-09-01

The time-evolution of continuous-time discrete-state biochemical processes is governed by the Chemical Master Equation (CME), which describes the probability of the molecular counts of each chemical species. As the corresponding number of discrete states is, for most processes, large, a direct numerical simulation of the CME is in general infeasible. In this paper we introduce the method of conditional moments (MCM), a novel approximation method for the solution of the CME. The MCM employs a discrete stochastic description for low-copy number species and a moment-based description for medium/high-copy number species. The moments of the medium/high-copy number species are conditioned on the state of the low abundance species, which allows us to capture complex correlation structures arising, e.g., for multi-attractor and oscillatory systems. We prove that the MCM provides a generalization of previous approximations of the CME based on hybrid modeling and moment-based methods. Furthermore, it improves upon these existing methods, as we illustrate using a model for the dynamics of stochastic single-gene expression. This application example shows that due to the more general structure, the MCM allows for the approximation of multi-modal distributions.

The Waist Width of Skis Influences the Kinematics of the Knee Joint in Alpine Skiing

PubMed Central

Zorko, Martin; Nemec, Bojan; Babič, Jan; Lešnik, Blaz; Supej, Matej

2015-01-01

Recently alpine skis with a wider waist width, which medially shifts the contact between the ski edge and the snow while turning, have appeared on the market. The aim of this study was to determine the knee joint kinematics during turning while using skis of different waist widths (65mm, 88mm, 110mm). Six highly skilled skiers performed ten turns on a predefined course (similar to a giant slalom course). The relation of femur and tibia in the sagital, frontal and coronal planes was captured by using an inertial motion capture suit, and Global Navigation Satellite System was used to determine the skiers’ trajectories. With respect of the outer ski the knee joint flexion, internal rotation and abduction significantly decreased with the increase of the ski waist width for the greatest part of the ski turn. The greatest abduction with the narrow ski and the greatest external rotation (lowest internal rotation) with the wide ski are probably the reflection of two different strategies of coping the biomechanical requirements in the ski turn. These changes in knee kinematics were most probably due to an active adaptation of the skier to the changed biomechanical conditions using wider skis. The results indicated that using skis with large waist widths on hard, frozen surfaces could bring the knee joint unfavorably closer to the end of the range of motion in transversal and frontal planes as well as potentially increasing the risk of degenerative knee injuries. Key points The change in the skis’ waist width caused a change in the knee joint movement strategies, which had a tendency to adapt the skier to different biomechanical conditions. The use of wider skis or, in particular, skis with a large waist width, on a hard or frozen surface, could unfavourably bring the knee joint closer to the end of range of motion in transversal and frontal planes as well as may potentially increase the risk of degenerative knee injuries. The overall results of the abduction and internal rotation in respect to turn radii and ground reaction forces indicated that the knee joint movements are likely one of the key points in alpine skiing techniques. However, the skiing equipment used can still significantly influence the movement strategy. PMID:26336348

Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

PubMed

Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

2014-01-01

Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions.

Salience-Based Selection: Attentional Capture by Distractors Less Salient Than the Target

PubMed Central

Goschy, Harriet; Müller, Hermann Joseph

2013-01-01

Current accounts of attentional capture predict the most salient stimulus to be invariably selected first. However, existing salience and visual search models assume noise in the map computation or selection process. Consequently, they predict the first selection to be stochastically dependent on salience, implying that attention could even be captured first by the second most salient (instead of the most salient) stimulus in the field. Yet, capture by less salient distractors has not been reported and salience-based selection accounts claim that the distractor has to be more salient in order to capture attention. We tested this prediction using an empirical and modeling approach of the visual search distractor paradigm. For the empirical part, we manipulated salience of target and distractor parametrically and measured reaction time interference when a distractor was present compared to absent. Reaction time interference was strongly correlated with distractor salience relative to the target. Moreover, even distractors less salient than the target captured attention, as measured by reaction time interference and oculomotor capture. In the modeling part, we simulated first selection in the distractor paradigm using behavioral measures of salience and considering the time course of selection including noise. We were able to replicate the result pattern we obtained in the empirical part. We conclude that each salience value follows a specific selection time distribution and attentional capture occurs when the selection time distributions of target and distractor overlap. Hence, selection is stochastic in nature and attentional capture occurs with a certain probability depending on relative salience. PMID:23382820

Multisensory Cues Capture Spatial Attention Regardless of Perceptual Load

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santangelo, Valerio; Spence, Charles

2007-01-01

We compared the ability of auditory, visual, and audiovisual (bimodal) exogenous cues to capture visuo-spatial attention under conditions of no load versus high perceptual load. Participants had to discriminate the elevation (up vs. down) of visual targets preceded by either unimodal or bimodal cues under conditions of high perceptual load (in…

High survivorship after catch-and-release fishing suggests physiological resilience in the endothermic shortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus)

PubMed Central

Lyle, Jeremy; Tracey, Sean; Currie, Suzanne; Semmens, Jayson M

2015-01-01

Abstract The shortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus) is a species commonly targeted by commercial and recreational anglers in many parts of the developed world. In Australia, the species is targeted by recreational anglers only, under the assumption that most of the sharks are released and populations remain minimally impacted. If released sharks do not survive, the current management strategy will need to be revised. Shortfin mako sharks are commonly subjected to lengthy angling events; however, their endothermic physiology may provide an advantage over ectothermic fishes when recovering from exercise. This study assessed the post-release survival of recreationally caught shortfin mako sharks using Survivorship Pop-up Archival Transmitting (sPAT) tags and examined physiological indicators of capture stress from blood samples as well as any injuries that may be caused by hook selection. Survival estimates were based on 30 shortfin mako sharks captured off the south-eastern coast of Australia. Three mortalities were observed over the duration of the study, yielding an overall survival rate of 90%. All mortalities occurred in sharks angled for <30 min. Sharks experienced increasing plasma lactate with longer fight times and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), increased plasma glucose at higher SSTs and depressed expression of heat shock protein 70 and β-hydroxybutyrate at higher SSTs. Long fight times did not impact survival. Circle hooks significantly reduced foul hooking when compared with J hooks. Under the conditions of this study, we found that physical injury associated with hook choice is likely to have contributed to an increased likelihood of mortality, whereas the high aerobic scope associated with the species' endothermy probably enabled it to cope with long fight times and the associated physiological responses to capture. PMID:27303650

Protecting embryos from stress: Corticosterone effects and the corticosterone response to capture and confinement during pregnancy in a live-bearing lizard (Hoplodactylus maculatus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cree, A.; Tyrrell, C.L.; Preest, M.R.; Thorburn, D.; Guillette, L.J.

2003-01-01

Hormones in the embryonic environment, including those of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, have profound effects on development in eutherian mammals. However, little is known about their effects in reptiles that have independently evolved viviparity. We investigated whether exogenous corticosterone affected embryonic development in the viviparous gecko Hoplodactylus maculatus, and whether pregnant geckos have a corticosterone response to capture and confinement that is suppressed relative to that in non-pregnant (vitellogenic) females and males. Corticosterone implants (5 mg, slow-release) administered to females in mid-pregnancy caused a large elevation of corticosterone in maternal plasma (P<0.001), probable reductions in embryonic growth and development (P=0.069-0.073), developmental abnormalities and eventual abortions. Cool temperature produced similar reductions in embryonic growth and development (P???0.036 cf. warm controls), but pregnancies were eventually successful. Despite the potentially harmful effects of elevated plasma corticosterone, pregnant females did not suppress their corticosterone response to capture and confinement relative to vitellogenic females, and both groups of females had higher responses than males. Future research should address whether lower maternal doses of corticosterone produce non-lethal effects on development that could contribute to phenotypic plasticity. Corticosterone implants also led to increased basking in pregnant females (P<0.001), and basal corticosterone in wild geckos (independent of reproductive condition) was positively correlated with body temperature (P<0.001). Interactions between temperature and corticosterone may have broad significance to other terrestrial ectotherms, and body temperature should be considered as a variable influencing plasma corticosterone concentrations in all future studies on reptiles. ?? 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term data from a small mammal community reveal loss of diversity and potential effects of local climate change.

PubMed

Santoro, Simone; Sanchez-Suarez, Cristina; Rouco, Carlos; Palomo, L Javier; Fernández, M Carmen; Kufner, Maura B; Moreno, Sacramento

2017-10-01

Climate change affects distribution and persistence of species. However, forecasting species' responses to these changes requires long-term data series that are often lacking in ecological studies. We used 15 years of small mammal trapping data collected between 1978 and 2015 in 3 areas at Doñana National Park (southwest Spain) to (i) describe changes in species composition and (ii) test the association between local climate conditions and size of small mammal populations. Overall, 5 species were captured: wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus , algerian mouse Mus spretus , greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula , garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus , and black rat Rattus rattus . The temporal pattern in the proportion of captures of each species suggests that the small mammal diversity declined with time. Although the larger species (e.g., E. quercinus ), better adapted to colder climate, have disappeared from our trapping records, M. spretus , a small species inhabiting southwest Europe and the Mediterranean coast of Africa, currently is almost the only trapped species. We used 2-level hierarchical models to separate changes in abundance from changes in probability of capture using records of A. sylvaticus in all 3 areas and of M. spretus in 1. We found that heavy rainfall and low temperatures were positively related to abundance of A. sylvaticus , and that the number of extremely hot days was negatively related to abundance of M. spretus . Despite other mechanisms are likely to be involved, our findings support the importance of climate for the distribution and persistence of these species and raise conservation concerns about potential cascading effects in the Doñana ecosystem.

Factors associated with mortality of walleyes and saugers caught in live-release tournaments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schramm, Harold; Vondracek, Bruce C.; French, William E.; Gerard, Patrick D.

2010-01-01

We measured the initial mortality (fish judged nonreleasable at weigh-in), prerelease mortality (fish judged nonreleasable 1–2 h after weigh-in [which includes initial mortality]), and postrelease mortality (fish that died during a 5-d retention in net-pens) in 14 live-release tournaments for walleye Sander vitreus conducted in April–October 2006 and April–July 2007 in lakes and rivers in Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Among the 14 events, initial mortality was 0–28%, prerelease mortality was 3–54%, and postrelease mortality was 0–100%; the mortality of reference fish (walleyes ≥31 cm long that were captured by electrofishing and held in net-pens with tournament-caught walleyes to measure postrelease mortality) was 0–97%. Mortality was generally low in events conducted when water temperatures were below 14°C but substantially higher in events when water temperatures were above 18°C. The mortality of reference fish suggests that capture by electrofishing and minimal handling when the water temperature exceeds 19°C results in high mortality of walleyes that is largely the result of the thermal conditions immediately after capture. Mortality was not related to the size of the tournaments (number of boats), the total number or weight of walleyes weighed in, or the mean number or weight of walleyes weighed in per boat. Mortality was positively related to the depth at which walleyes were caught and the live-well temperature and negatively related to the live-well dissolved oxygen concentration. Surface water temperature was the best predictor of mortality, and models were developed to predict the probability of prerelease and postrelease mortality of 10, 20, and 30% or less of tournament-caught walleyes due to water temperature.

Factors associated with initial mortality of Walleye and Sauger caught in live-release tournaments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schramm, Harold L.; Vondracek, Bruce C.; French, William E.; Gerard, Patrick D.

2010-01-01

We measured the initial mortality (fish judged nonreleasable at weigh-in), prerelease mortality (fish judged nonreleasable 1–2 h after weigh-in [which includes initial mortality]), and postrelease mortality (fish that died during a 5-d retention in net-pens) in 14 live-release tournaments for walleye Sander vitreus conducted in April–October 2006 and April–July 2007 in lakes and rivers in Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Among the 14 events, initial mortality was 0–28%, prerelease mortality was 3–54%, and postrelease mortality was 0–100%; the mortality of reference fish (walleyes ≥31 cm long that were captured by electrofishing and held in net-pens with tournament-caught walleyes to measure postrelease mortality) was 0–97%. Mortality was generally low in events conducted when water temperatures were below 14°C but substantially higher in events when water temperatures were above 18°C. The mortality of reference fish suggests that capture by electrofishing and minimal handling when the water temperature exceeds 19°C results in high mortality of walleyes that is largely the result of the thermal conditions immediately after capture. Mortality was not related to the size of the tournaments (number of boats), the total number or weight of walleyes weighed in, or the mean number or weight of walleyes weighed in per boat. Mortality was positively related to the depth at which walleyes were caught and the live-well temperature and negatively related to the live-well dissolved oxygen concentration. Surface water temperature was the best predictor of mortality, and models were developed to predict the probability of prerelease and postrelease mortality of 10, 20, and 30% or less of tournament-caught walleyes due to water temperature.

Influence of periodically changing oxidizing and reducing environment on sulfur capture under PFBC conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yrjas, P.; Hupa, M.

1997-12-31

In the literature it has been reported that sulfur capture with limestone (CaCO{sub 3}) under atmospheric fluidized bed combustion conditions reaches a maximum at about 850 C. Previously, the maximum has been attributed to the sintering of the sorbent particles which decreases the reactive surface area. Lately, also another explanation has been reported. In this case the sulfur capture decrease at higher temperatures was concluded to be due to fluctuating oxidizing/reducing conditions in the atmospheric combustor. In this paper the influence of alternating oxidizing/reducing conditions on SO{sub 2} capture at atmospheric and elevated pressure (15 bar) is reported. In themore » pressurized case, the CO{sub 2} partial pressure was kept high enough to prevent CaCO{sub 3} from calcining and therefore the CaSO{sub 4} would not form CaO but CaCO{sub 3} from calcining and therefore the CaSO{sub 4} would not form CaO but CaCO{sub 3} under reducing conditions. The experiments were done with a pressurized TGA by periodically changing the gas environment between oxidizing (O{sub 2}, SO{sub 2}, CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}) and slightly reducing (CO, SO{sub 2}, CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}) gas mixtures at different temperatures. The results showed that under normal pressure and slightly reducing conditions CaO formation from CaSO{sub 4} increased with temperature as expected. However, no significant amounts of CaCO{sub 3} were formed from CaSO{sub 4} at elevated pressure. It was also concluded that since the formation of CaO from CaSO{sub 4} was relatively slow it could not explain the sharp sulfur capture maximum at about 850 C. Therefore, it was assumed that the strongly reducing zones, where CaS thermodynamically is the stable compound, may play a more important role than the slightly reducing zones, concerning the sulfur capture in fluidized bed combustors.« less

Combining multistate capture-recapture data with tag recoveries to estimate demographic parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Conn, P.B.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

Matrix population models that allow an animal to occupy more than one state over time are important tools for population and evolutionary ecologists. Definition of state can vary, including location for metapopulation models and breeding state for life history models. For populations whose members can be marked and subsequently re-encountered, multistate mark-recapture models are available to estimate the survival and transition probabilities needed to construct population models. Multistate models have proved extremely useful in this context, but they often require a substantial amount of data and restrict estimation of transition probabilities to those areas or states subjected to formal sampling effort. At the same time, for many species, there are considerable tag recovery data provided by the public that could be modeled in order to increase precision and to extend inference to a greater number of areas or states. Here we present a statistical model for combining multistate capture-recapture data (e.g., from a breeding ground study) with multistate tag recovery data (e.g., from wintering grounds). We use this method to analyze data from a study of Canada Geese (Branta canadensis) in the Atlantic Flyway of North America. Our analysis produced marginal improvement in precision, due to relatively few recoveries, but we demonstrate how precision could be further improved with increases in the probability that a retrieved tag is reported.

Electronic propensity rules in Li-H+ collisions involving initial and/or final oriented states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salas, P. J.

2000-12-01

Electronic excitation and capture processes are studied in collisions involving systems with only one active electron such as the alkaline (Li)-proton in the medium-energy region (0.1-15 keV). Using the semiclassical impact parameter method, the probabilities and the orientation parameter are calculated for transitions between initial and/or final oriented states. The results show a strong asymmetry in the probabilities depending on the orientation of the initial and/or final states. An intuitive view of the processes, by means of the concepts of propensity and velocity matching rules, is provided.

Muon capture on light isotopes in Double Chooz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strait, M.; Double Chooz Collaboration

2017-09-01

Using the Double Chooz reactor neutrino detector, we have measured the products of µ - capture on 12C, 13C, 14N and 16O. Over a period of 490 days, we collected 2.3 × 106 stopping cosmic µ -, of which 1.8 × 105 captured on these nuclei in the inner detector. The resulting isotopes were tagged using prompt neutron emission (when applicable), the subsequent beta decays, and, in some cases, β-delayed neutrons. Production of these βn isotopes, primarily 9Li, which are {{{ν _e}} \\over {{ν _μ }}} backgrounds, was found at a significance of 5.5σ. The probability of 9Li production per capture on natC is (2.4 ± 0.9(stat) ± 0.1(syst)) × 10-4. We have made the most precise measurement of the rate of 12C(µ -, ν)12B to date, 6.57 - 0.21 + 0.11 × {10^3}{{ }}{{{s}} - 1},{{ or }}≤ft( {17.35 - 0.59 + 0.35} \\right)% of nuclear captures. By tagging excited states emitting gammas, the ground state transition rate to 12B is found to be 5.68 - 0.23 + 0.14 × {10^3}{{ }}{{{s}} - 1}.

Physiological response of wild rainbow trout to angling: Impact of angling duration, fish size, body condition, and temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meka, Julie M.; McCormick, S.D.

2005-01-01

This study evaluated the immediate physiological response of wild rainbow trout to catch-and-release angling in the Alagnak River, southwest Alaska. Information was recorded on individual rainbow trout (n = 415) captured by angling including landing time and the time required to remove hooks (angling duration), the time to anesthetize fish in clove oil and withdraw blood, fish length and weight, and water temperature at capture locations. Plasma cortisol, glucose, ions (sodium, potassium, chloride), and lactate were analyzed to determine the effects of angling duration, fish size, body condition, and temperature. Levels of plasma ions did not change significantly during the observed physiological response and levels of plasma glucose were sometimes influenced by length (2000, 2001), body condition (2001), or temperature (2001). Levels of plasma cortisol and lactate in extended capture fish (angling duration greater than 2 min) were significantly higher than levels in rapid capture fish (angling duration less than 2 min). Rapid capture fish were significantly smaller than extended capture fish, reflecting that fish size influenced landing and handling times. Fish size was related to cortisol and lactate in 2002, which corresponded to the year when larger fish were captured and there were longer landing times. Body condition (i.e., weight/length regression residuals index), was significantly related to lactate in 2000 and 2001. Water temperatures were higher in 2001 (mean temperature ± S.E., 13 ± 2oC) than in 2002 (10 ± 2oC), and fish captured in 2001 had significantly higher cortisol and lactate concentrations than fish captured in 2002. The pattern of increase in plasma cortisol and lactate was due to the amount of time fish were angled, and the upper limit of the response was due to water temperature. The results of this study indicate the importance of minimizing the duration of angling in order to reduce the sublethal physiological disturbances in wild fish subjected to catch-and-release angling, particularly during warmer water temperatures. It is also important to note that factors such as fish size may influence both the duration of angling and subsequent physiological response. 

Identifying a "default" visual search mode with operant conditioning.

PubMed

Kawahara, Jun-ichiro

2010-09-01

The presence of a singleton in a task-irrelevant domain can impair visual search. This impairment, known as the attentional capture depends on the set of participants. When narrowly searching for a specific feature (the feature search mode), only matching stimuli capture attention. When searching broadly (the singleton detection mode), any oddball captures attention. The present study examined which strategy represents the "default" mode using an operant conditioning approach in which participants were trained, in the absence of explicit instructions, to search for a target in an ambiguous context in which one of two modes was available. The results revealed that participants behaviorally adopted the singleton detection as the default mode but reported using the feature search mode. Conscious strategies did not eliminate capture. These results challenge the view that a conscious set always modulates capture, suggesting that the visual system tends to rely on stimulus salience to deploy attention.

Minimum required capture radius in a coplanar model of the aerial combat problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breakwell, J. V.; Merz, A. W.

1977-01-01

Coplanar aerial combat is modeled with constant speeds and specified turn rates. The minimum capture radius which will always permit capture, regardless of the initial conditions, is calculated. This 'critical' capture radius is also the maximum range which the evader can guarantee indefinitely if the initial range, for example, is large. A composite barrier is constructed which gives the boundary, at any heading, of relative positions for which the capture radius is less than critical.

Characteristics of covert and overt visual orienting: Evidence from attentional and oculomotor capture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Shu-Chieh; Remington, Roger W.

2003-01-01

Five visual search experiments found oculomotor and attentional capture consistent with predictions of contingent orienting, contrary to claims that oculomotor capture is purely stimulus driven. Separate saccade and attend-only conditions contained a color target appearing either singly, with an onset or color distractor, or both. In singleton mode, onsets produced oculomotor and attentional capture. In feature mode, capture was absent or greatly reduced, providing evidence for top-down modulation of both types of capture. Although attentional capture by color abstractors was present throughout, oculomotor capture by color occurred only when accompanied by transient change, providing evidence for a dissociation between oculomotor and attentional capture. Oculomotor and attentional capture appear to be mediated by top-down attentional control settings, but transient change may be necessary for oculomotor capture. ((c) 2003 APA, all rights reserved).

Plethodontid salamander distributions in managed forest headwaters in western Oregon

Treesearch

Deanna H. Olson; Matthew R. Kluber

2014-01-01

We examined terrestrial amphibians in managed headwater forest stands in western Oregon from 1998 to 2009. We assessed: (1) temporal and spatial patterns of species capture rates, and movement patterns with distance from streams and forest management treatments of alternative riparian buffer widths and upland thinning; (2) species survival and recapture probabilities;...

An Inverse Problem for a Class of Conditional Probability Measure-Dependent Evolution Equations

PubMed Central

Mirzaev, Inom; Byrne, Erin C.; Bortz, David M.

2016-01-01

We investigate the inverse problem of identifying a conditional probability measure in measure-dependent evolution equations arising in size-structured population modeling. We formulate the inverse problem as a least squares problem for the probability measure estimation. Using the Prohorov metric framework, we prove existence and consistency of the least squares estimates and outline a discretization scheme for approximating a conditional probability measure. For this scheme, we prove general method stability. The work is motivated by Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models of flocculation for which the shape of the post-fragmentation conditional probability measure greatly impacts the solution dynamics. To illustrate our methodology, we apply the theory to a particular PDE model that arises in the study of population dynamics for flocculating bacterial aggregates in suspension, and provide numerical evidence for the utility of the approach. PMID:28316360

A capture-recapture survival analysis model for radio-tagged animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, K.H.; Bunck, C.M.; Winterstein, S.R.; Chen, C.-L.; North, P.M.; Nichols, J.D.

1995-01-01

In recent years, survival analysis of radio-tagged animals has developed using methods based on the Kaplan-Meier method used in medical and engineering applications (Pollock et al., 1989a,b). An important assumption of this approach is that all tagged animals with a functioning radio can be relocated at each sampling time with probability 1. This assumption may not always be reasonable in practice. In this paper, we show how a general capture-recapture model can be derived which allows for some probability (less than one) for animals to be relocated. This model is not simply a Jolly-Seber model because it is possible to relocate both dead and live animals, unlike when traditional tagging is used. The model can also be viewed as a generalization of the Kaplan-Meier procedure, thus linking the Jolly-Seber and Kaplan-Meier approaches to survival estimation. We present maximum likelihood estimators and discuss testing between submodels. We also discuss model assumptions and their validity in practice. An example is presented based on canvasback data collected by G. M. Haramis of Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, Maryland, USA.

Multiplatform Mobile Laser Scanning: Usability and Performance

PubMed Central

Kukko, Antero; Kaartinen, Harri; Hyyppä, Juha; Chen, Yuwei

2012-01-01

Mobile laser scanning is an emerging technology capable of capturing three-dimensional data from surrounding objects. With state-of-the-art sensors, the achieved point clouds capture object details with good accuracy and precision. Many of the applications involve civil engineering in urban areas, as well as traffic and other urban planning, all of which serve to make 3D city modeling probably the fastest growing market segment in this field. This article outlines multiplatform mobile laser scanning solutions such as vehicle- and trolley-operated urban area data acquisition, and boat-mounted equipment for fluvial environments. Moreover, we introduce a novel backpack version of mobile laser scanning equipment for surveying applications in the field of natural sciences where the requirements include precision and mobility in variable terrain conditions. In addition to presenting a technical description of the systems, we discuss the performance of the solutions in the light of various applications in the fields of urban mapping and modeling, fluvial geomorphology, snow-cover characterization, precision agriculture, and in monitoring the effects of climate change on permafrost landforms. The data performance of the mobile laser scanning approach is described by the results of an evaluation of the ROAMER on a permanent MLS test field. Furthermore, an in situ accuracy assessment using a field of spherical 3D targets for the newly-introduced Akhka backpack system is conducted and reported on.

The contribution of cometary volatiles to the primitive Earth.

PubMed

Oro, J; Holzer, G; Lazcano-Araujo, A

1980-01-01

It has been estimated that during its early history the Earth captured a mass of cometary material of the order of 10(23) grams. Since carbon is supposed to be at least three times more abundant in comets than in carbonaceous chondrites (3.5% C in C 1 chondrites), it can be deduced that about 1 x 10(22) grams of carbon (as carbon compounds), was added by comets to the surface of the prebiotic Earth. This carbon value is of the same order of magnitude as the value of the organic carbon buried in the Earth's sedimentary shell, but approximately one order of magnitude lower than the Earth's surface total carbon (7 x 10(22) gm). The capture of comets by the Earth would also have contributed to generating the appropriate aqueous and reducing environmental conditions necessary for organic synthesis. Although it is possible that some of the cometary carbon compounds falling on the Earth survived, most of them were probably decomposed by the heat and shock waves of the cometary collision. Upon quenching to low temperatures, however, the reactive chemical species produced by the impact would have recombined, leading to the synthesis of a great variety of organic molecules. Laboratory experiments with radiation, heat and shock waves have demonstrated that some of the synthesized compounds are biochemical molecules: amino acids, sugars, purines, and pyrimidines. These are essential to all living systems.

Ground-water storage depletion in Pahrump Valley, Nevada-California, 1962-75

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrill, James R.

1982-01-01

During the 13-year period, February 1962 to February 1975, about 540,000 acre-feet of ground water was pumped from Pahrump Valley. This resulted in significant water-level declines along the base of the Pahrump and Manse fans where pumping was concentrated. Maximum observed net decline was slightly more than 60 feet. Much smaller declines occurred in the central valley, and locally, water levels in some shallow wells rose due to recharge derived from the deep percolation of irrigation water. The pumping resulted in about 219,000 acre-feet of storage depletion. Of this, 155,000 acre-feet was from the draining of unconsolidated material, 46,000 was from compaction of fine-grained sediments, and 18,000 acre-feet was from the elastic response of the aquifer and water. The total storage depletion was equal to about 40 percent of the total pumpage. The remaining pumped water was derived from the capture of natural ground-water discharge and reuse of pumped water that had recirculated back to ground water. Natural recharge to and discharge from the ground-water system is estimated to be 37,000 acre-feet per year. Of this, 18,000 acre-feet per year leaves the area as subsurface outflow through carbonate-rock aquifers which form a multivalley flow system. The extent of this system was not precisely determined by this study. The most probable discharge area for this outflow is along the flood plain of the Amargosa River between the towns of Shoshone and Tecopa. This outflow probably cannot be economically captured by pumping from Pahrump Valley. Consequently, the maximum amount of natural discharge available for capture is 19,000 acre-feet per year. This is larger than the 12,000 acre-feet per year estimated in a previous study; the difference is due to different techniques used in the analysis. As of 1975, pumping was causing an overdraft of 11,000 acre-feet per year on the ground-water system. No new equilibrium is probable in the foreseeable future. Water levels will probably continue to slowly decline until the pumping is reduced. The moderate rates of decline and very large amounts of ground water stored in the valley-fill reservoir suggest that a long time will be required before the valley-wide depletion of ground-water storage becomes critical. Problems involving water quality, land subsidence, and well interference will probably occur first.

Updating: Learning versus Supposing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Jiaying; Crupi, Vincenzo; Tentori, Katya; Fitelson, Branden; Osherson, Daniel

2012-01-01

Bayesian orthodoxy posits a tight relationship between conditional probability and updating. Namely, the probability of an event "A" after learning "B" should equal the conditional probability of "A" given "B" prior to learning "B". We examine whether ordinary judgment conforms to the orthodox view. In three experiments we found substantial…

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices

PubMed Central

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G.; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N. C.; Binkofski, Ferdinand C.; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R.

2014-01-01

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music—happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones—and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the “happy” than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the “happy” condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting. PMID:24432007

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices.

PubMed

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N C; Binkofski, Ferdinand C; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R

2014-01-07

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music-happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones-and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the "happy" than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the "happy" condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting.

CProb: a computational tool for conducting conditional probability analysis.

PubMed

Hollister, Jeffrey W; Walker, Henry A; Paul, John F

2008-01-01

Conditional probability is the probability of observing one event given that another event has occurred. In an environmental context, conditional probability helps to assess the association between an environmental contaminant (i.e., the stressor) and the ecological condition of a resource (i.e., the response). These analyses, when combined with controlled experiments and other methodologies, show great promise in evaluating ecological conditions from observational data and in defining water quality and other environmental criteria. Current applications of conditional probability analysis (CPA) are largely done via scripts or cumbersome spreadsheet routines, which may prove daunting to end-users and do not provide access to the underlying scripts. Combining spreadsheets with scripts eases computation through a familiar interface (i.e., Microsoft Excel) and creates a transparent process through full accessibility to the scripts. With this in mind, we developed a software application, CProb, as an Add-in for Microsoft Excel with R, R(D)com Server, and Visual Basic for Applications. CProb calculates and plots scatterplots, empirical cumulative distribution functions, and conditional probability. In this short communication, we describe CPA, our motivation for developing a CPA tool, and our implementation of CPA as a Microsoft Excel Add-in. Further, we illustrate the use of our software with two examples: a water quality example and a landscape example. CProb is freely available for download at http://www.epa.gov/emap/nca/html/regions/cprob.

Learning and robustness to catch-and-release fishing in a shark social network

PubMed Central

Brown, Culum; Planes, Serge

2017-01-01

Individuals can play different roles in maintaining connectivity and social cohesion in animal populations and thereby influence population robustness to perturbations. We performed a social network analysis in a reef shark population to assess the vulnerability of the global network to node removal under different scenarios. We found that the network was generally robust to the removal of nodes with high centrality. The network appeared also highly robust to experimental fishing. Individual shark catchability decreased as a function of experience, as revealed by comparing capture frequency and site presence. Altogether, these features suggest that individuals learnt to avoid capture, which ultimately increased network robustness to experimental catch-and-release. Our results also suggest that some caution must be taken when using capture–recapture models often used to assess population size as assumptions (such as equal probabilities of capture and recapture) may be violated by individual learning to escape recapture. PMID:28298593

DENSITY: software for analysing capture-recapture data from passive detector arrays

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, M.G.; Dawson, D.K.; Robbins, C.S.

2004-01-01

A general computer-intensive method is described for fitting spatial detection functions to capture-recapture data from arrays of passive detectors such as live traps and mist nets. The method is used to estimate the population density of 10 species of breeding birds sampled by mist-netting in deciduous forest at Patuxent Research Refuge, Laurel, Maryland, U.S.A., from 1961 to 1972. Total density (9.9 ? 0.6 ha-1 mean ? SE) appeared to decline over time (slope -0.41 ? 0.15 ha-1y-1). The mean precision of annual estimates for all 10 species pooled was acceptable (CV(D) = 14%). Spatial analysis of closed-population capture-recapture data highlighted deficiencies in non-spatial methodologies. For example, effective trapping area cannot be assumed constant when detection probability is variable. Simulation may be used to evaluate alternative designs for mist net arrays where density estimation is a study goal.

Accounting for tagging-to-harvest mortality in a Brownie tag-recovery model by incorporating radio-telemetry data.

PubMed

Buderman, Frances E; Diefenbach, Duane R; Casalena, Mary Jo; Rosenberry, Christopher S; Wallingford, Bret D

2014-04-01

The Brownie tag-recovery model is useful for estimating harvest rates but assumes all tagged individuals survive to the first hunting season; otherwise, mortality between time of tagging and the hunting season will cause the Brownie estimator to be negatively biased. Alternatively, fitting animals with radio transmitters can be used to accurately estimate harvest rate but may be more costly. We developed a joint model to estimate harvest and annual survival rates that combines known-fate data from animals fitted with transmitters to estimate the probability of surviving the period from capture to the first hunting season, and data from reward-tagged animals in a Brownie tag-recovery model. We evaluated bias and precision of the joint estimator, and how to optimally allocate effort between animals fitted with radio transmitters and inexpensive ear tags or leg bands. Tagging-to-harvest survival rates from >20 individuals with radio transmitters combined with 50-100 reward tags resulted in an unbiased and precise estimator of harvest rates. In addition, the joint model can test whether transmitters affect an individual's probability of being harvested. We illustrate application of the model using data from wild turkey, Meleagris gallapavo, to estimate harvest rates, and data from white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, to evaluate whether the presence of a visible radio transmitter is related to the probability of a deer being harvested. The joint known-fate tag-recovery model eliminates the requirement to capture and mark animals immediately prior to the hunting season to obtain accurate and precise estimates of harvest rate. In addition, the joint model can assess whether marking animals with radio transmitters affects the individual's probability of being harvested, caused by hunter selectivity or changes in a marked animal's behavior.

Accounting for tagging-to-harvest mortality in a Brownie tag-recovery model by incorporating radio-telemetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buderman, Frances E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Casalena, Mary Jo; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

2014-01-01

The Brownie tag-recovery model is useful for estimating harvest rates but assumes all tagged individuals survive to the first hunting season; otherwise, mortality between time of tagging and the hunting season will cause the Brownie estimator to be negatively biased. Alternatively, fitting animals with radio transmitters can be used to accurately estimate harvest rate but may be more costly. We developed a joint model to estimate harvest and annual survival rates that combines known-fate data from animals fitted with transmitters to estimate the probability of surviving the period from capture to the first hunting season, and data from reward-tagged animals in a Brownie tag-recovery model. We evaluated bias and precision of the joint estimator, and how to optimally allocate effort between animals fitted with radio transmitters and inexpensive ear tags or leg bands. Tagging-to-harvest survival rates from >20 individuals with radio transmitters combined with 50–100 reward tags resulted in an unbiased and precise estimator of harvest rates. In addition, the joint model can test whether transmitters affect an individual's probability of being harvested. We illustrate application of the model using data from wild turkey, Meleagris gallapavo,to estimate harvest rates, and data from white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, to evaluate whether the presence of a visible radio transmitter is related to the probability of a deer being harvested. The joint known-fate tag-recovery model eliminates the requirement to capture and mark animals immediately prior to the hunting season to obtain accurate and precise estimates of harvest rate. In addition, the joint model can assess whether marking animals with radio transmitters affects the individual's probability of being harvested, caused by hunter selectivity or changes in a marked animal's behavior.

ILT based defect simulation of inspection images accurately predicts mask defect printability on wafer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deep, Prakash; Paninjath, Sankaranarayanan; Pereira, Mark; Buck, Peter

2016-05-01

At advanced technology nodes mask complexity has been increased because of large-scale use of resolution enhancement technologies (RET) which includes Optical Proximity Correction (OPC), Inverse Lithography Technology (ILT) and Source Mask Optimization (SMO). The number of defects detected during inspection of such mask increased drastically and differentiation of critical and non-critical defects are more challenging, complex and time consuming. Because of significant defectivity of EUVL masks and non-availability of actinic inspection, it is important and also challenging to predict the criticality of defects for printability on wafer. This is one of the significant barriers for the adoption of EUVL for semiconductor manufacturing. Techniques to decide criticality of defects from images captured using non actinic inspection images is desired till actinic inspection is not available. High resolution inspection of photomask images detects many defects which are used for process and mask qualification. Repairing all defects is not practical and probably not required, however it's imperative to know which defects are severe enough to impact wafer before repair. Additionally, wafer printability check is always desired after repairing a defect. AIMSTM review is the industry standard for this, however doing AIMSTM review for all defects is expensive and very time consuming. Fast, accurate and an economical mechanism is desired which can predict defect printability on wafer accurately and quickly from images captured using high resolution inspection machine. Predicting defect printability from such images is challenging due to the fact that the high resolution images do not correlate with actual mask contours. The challenge is increased due to use of different optical condition during inspection other than actual scanner condition, and defects found in such images do not have correlation with actual impact on wafer. Our automated defect simulation tool predicts printability of defects at wafer level and automates the process of defect dispositioning from images captured using high resolution inspection machine. It first eliminates false defects due to registration, focus errors, image capture errors and random noise caused during inspection. For the remaining real defects, actual mask-like contours are generated using the Calibre® ILT solution [1][2], which is enhanced to predict the actual mask contours from high resolution defect images. It enables accurate prediction of defect contours, which is not possible from images captured using inspection machine because some information is already lost due to optical effects. Calibre's simulation engine is used to generate images at wafer level using scanner optical conditions and mask-like contours as input. The tool then analyses simulated images and predicts defect printability. It automatically calculates maximum CD variation and decides which defects are severe to affect patterns on wafer. In this paper, we assess the printability of defects for the mask of advanced technology nodes. In particular, we will compare the recovered mask contours with contours extracted from SEM image of the mask and compare simulation results with AIMSTM for a variety of defects and patterns. The results of printability assessment and the accuracy of comparison are presented in this paper. We also suggest how this method can be extended to predict printability of defects identified on EUV photomasks.

Lotka-Volterra systems in environments with randomly disordered temporal periodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naess, Arvid; Dimentberg, Michael F.; Gaidai, Oleg

2008-08-01

A generalized Lotka-Volterra model for a pair of interacting populations of predators and prey is studied. The model accounts for the prey’s interspecies competition and therefore is asymptotically stable, whereas its oscillatory behavior is induced by temporal variations in environmental conditions simulated by those in the prey’s reproduction rate. Two models of the variations are considered, each of them combining randomness with “hidden” periodicity. The stationary joint probability density function (PDF) of the number of predators and prey is calculated numerically by the path integration (PI) method based on the use of characteristic functions and the fast Fourier transform. The numerical results match those for the asymptotic case of white-noise variations for which an analytical solution is available. Several examples are studied, with calculations of important characteristics of oscillations, for example the expected rate of up-crossings given the level of the predator number. The calculated PDFs may be of predominantly random (unimodal) or predominantly periodic nature (bimodal). Thus, the PI method has been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for studies of the dynamics of predator-prey pairs. The method captures the random oscillations as observed in nature, taking into account potential periodicity in the environmental conditions.

Lotka-Volterra systems in environments with randomly disordered temporal periodicity.

PubMed

Naess, Arvid; Dimentberg, Michael F; Gaidai, Oleg

2008-08-01

A generalized Lotka-Volterra model for a pair of interacting populations of predators and prey is studied. The model accounts for the prey's interspecies competition and therefore is asymptotically stable, whereas its oscillatory behavior is induced by temporal variations in environmental conditions simulated by those in the prey's reproduction rate. Two models of the variations are considered, each of them combining randomness with "hidden" periodicity. The stationary joint probability density function (PDF) of the number of predators and prey is calculated numerically by the path integration (PI) method based on the use of characteristic functions and the fast Fourier transform. The numerical results match those for the asymptotic case of white-noise variations for which an analytical solution is available. Several examples are studied, with calculations of important characteristics of oscillations, for example the expected rate of up-crossings given the level of the predator number. The calculated PDFs may be of predominantly random (unimodal) or predominantly periodic nature (bimodal). Thus, the PI method has been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for studies of the dynamics of predator-prey pairs. The method captures the random oscillations as observed in nature, taking into account potential periodicity in the environmental conditions.

Genetic profiling to determine potential origins of boll weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) captured in a Texas eradication zone: endemicity, immigration, or sabotage?

PubMed

Kim, Kyung Seok; Sappington, Thomas W; Allen, Charles T

2008-12-01

Thirty-seven boll weevils, Anthonomus grandis grandis Boheman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), were captured in pheromone traps near Lubbock, TX, in the Southern High Plains/Caprock eradication zone during August-October 2006. No boll weevils had been captured in this zone or neighboring zones to the north earlier in the year, and only very low numbers had been captured in neighboring zones to the south and east. Therefore, the captures near Lubbock were unexpected. Five of the weevils captured the last week of August were preserved and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci for comparison with a database of genotypes for 22 boll weevil populations sampled from eight U.S. states and four locations in Mexico. The Lubbock population itself is an unlikely source, suggesting that the captured weevils probably did not originate from a low-level endemic population. Populations from eastern states, Mexico, and Big Spring, TX, can be confidently excluded as potential source regions. Although the Weslaco and Kingsville, TX, areas cannot be statistically excluded, they are unlikely sources. The most likely sources are nearby areas in New Mexico, TX, or southwest Oklahoma, or from areas of eastern Texas represented by Waxahachie and El Campo populations. Together, genetic and circumstantial evidence suggest either that the trapped boll weevils are the offspring of alone mated female that immigrated from eastern Texas earlier in the summer or that weevils originally captured near Waxahachie but now long-dead were planted in the traps by a disgruntled employee of the eradication program.

New quasibound states of the compound nucleus in α -particle capture by the nucleus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maydanyuk, Sergei P.; Zhang, Peng-Ming; Zou, Li-Ping

2017-07-01

We generalize the theory of nuclear decay and capture of Gamow that is based on tunneling through the barrier and internal oscillations inside the nucleus. In our formalism an additional factor is obtained, which describes distribution of the wave function of the the α particle inside the nuclear region. We discover new most stable states (called quasibound states) of the compound nucleus (CN) formed during the capture of α particle by the nucleus. With a simple example, we explain why these states cannot appear in traditional calculations of the α capture cross sections based on monotonic penetrabilities of a barrier, but they appear in a complete description of the evolution of the CN. Our result is obtained by a complete description of the CN evolution, which has the advantages of (1) a clear picture of the formation of the CN and its disintegration, (2) a detailed quantum description of the CN, (3) tests of the calculated amplitudes based on quantum mechanics (not realized in other approaches), and (4) high accuracy of calculations (not achieved in other approaches). These peculiarities are shown with the capture reaction of α +44Ca . We predict quasibound energy levels and determine fusion probabilities for this reaction. The difference between our approach and theory of quasistationary states with complex energies applied for the α capture is also discussed. We show (1) that theory does not provide calculations for the cross section of α capture (according to modern models of the α capture), in contrast with our formalism, and (2) these two approaches describe different states of the α capture (for the same α -nucleus potential).

Factors affecting breeding dispersal of European ducks on Engure Marsh, Latvia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blums, P.; Nichols, J.D.; Lindberg, M.S.; Hines, J.E.; Mednis, A.

2003-01-01

1. We used up to 35 years of capture-recapture data from nearly 3300 individual female ducks nesting on Engure Marsh, Latvia, and multistate modelling to test predictions about the influence of environmental, habitat and management factors on breeding dispersal probability within the marsh. 2. Analyses based on observed dispersal distances of common pochards and tufted ducks provided no evidence that breeding success in year t influenced dispersal distance between t and t + 1. 3. Breeding dispersal distances (year t to t + 1) of pochards and tufted ducks were associated with a delay in relative nest initiation dates in year t + 1. The delay was greater for pochards (c. 4 days) than for tufted ducks (c. 2 days) when females dispersed > 0.8 km. 4. Northern shovelers and tufted ducks moved from a large island to small islands at low water levels and from small islands to the large island at high water levels before the construction of elevated small islands (1960-82). Following this habitat management (1983-94). breeding fidelity was extremely high and not influenced by water level in the marsh for either species. 5. Because pochard nesting habitats in black-headed gull colonies were saturated during the entire study period, nesting females moved into and out of colonies with similar probabilities. Local survival probabilities and incubation body masses were higher for both yearlings (SY) and adults (ASY) nesting within gull colonies, suggesting that these females were of better quality than females nesting outside of the colonies. 6. Tufted ducks showed higher probabilities of moving from islands to emergent marshes when water levels were higher both before and after habitat management. However, rates of movement for a given water level were higher during the period before management than after. 7. Both pochards and tufted ducks exhibited asymmetric movement with respect to proximity to water, with higher movement probabilities to near-water nesting locations than away from these locations. 8. Multistate capture-recapture models provided analyses that were useful in investigating sources of variation in breeding dispersal probabilities.

Aerocapture Performance Analysis of A Venus Exploration Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, Brett R.; Westhelle, Carlos H.

2005-01-01

A performance analysis of a Discovery Class Venus Exploration Mission in which aerocapture is used to capture a spacecraft into a 300km polar orbit for a two year science mission has been conducted to quantify its performance. A preliminary performance assessment determined that a high heritage 70 sphere-cone rigid aeroshell with a 0.25 lift to drag ratio has adequate control authority to provide an entry flight path angle corridor large enough for the mission s aerocapture maneuver. A 114 kilograms per square meter ballistic coefficient reference vehicle was developed from the science requirements and the preliminary assessment s heating indicators and deceleration loads. Performance analyses were conducted for the reference vehicle and for sensitivity studies on vehicle ballistic coefficient and maximum bank rate. The performance analyses used a high fidelity flight simulation within a Monte Carlo executive to define the aerocapture heating environment and deceleration loads and to determine mission success statistics. The simulation utilized the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) that was modified to include Venus specific atmospheric and planet models, aerodynamic characteristics, and interplanetary trajectory models. In addition to Venus specific models, an autonomous guidance system, HYPAS, and a pseudo flight controller were incorporated in the simulation. The Monte Carlo analyses incorporated a reference set of approach trajectory delivery errors, aerodynamic uncertainties, and atmospheric density variations. The reference performance analysis determined the reference vehicle achieves 100% successful capture and has a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit with a 90 meters per second delta V budget for post aerocapture orbital adjustments. A ballistic coefficient trade study conducted with reference uncertainties determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture with a ballistic coefficient of 228 kilograms per square meter and that the increased ballistic coefficient increases post aerocapture V budget to 134 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit. A trade study on vehicle bank rate determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture when the maximum bank rate is decreased from 30 deg/s to 20 deg/s. The decreased bank rate increases post aerocapture delta V budget to 102 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

PubMed

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

Attentional Capture by an Unannounced Color Singleton Depends on Expectation Discrepancy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horstmann, Gernot

2005-01-01

Eight experiments examined the conditions under which a color singleton that is presented for the 1st time without prior announcement captures attention. The main hypothesis is that an unannounced singleton captures attention to the extent that it deviates from expectations. This hypothesis was tested within a visual-search paradigm in which…

Policy capturing as a method of quantifying the determinants of landscape preference

Treesearch

Dennis B. Propst

1979-01-01

Policy Capturing, a potential methodology for evaluating landscape preference, was described and tested. This methodology results in a mathematical model that theoretically represents the human decision-making process. Under experimental conditions, judges were asked to express their preferences for scenes of the Blue Ridge Parkway. An equation which "captures,...

Photoconductive gain and quantum efficiency of remotely doped Ge/Si quantum dot photodetectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakimov, A. I.; Kirienko, V. V.; Armbrister, V. A.; Bloshkin, A. A.; Dvurechenskii, A. V.; Shklyaev, A. A.

2016-10-01

We study the effect of quantum dot charging on the mid-infrared photocurrent, optical gain, hole capture probability, and absorption quantum efficiency in remotely delta-doped Ge/Si quantum dot photodetectors. The dot occupation with holes is controlled by varying dot and doping densities. From our investigations of samples doped to contain from about one to nine holes per dot we observe an over 10 times gain enhancement and similar suppression of the hole capture probability with increased carrier population. The data are explained by quenching the capture process and increasing the photoexcited hole lifetime due to formation of the repulsive Coulomb potential of the extra holes inside the quantum dots. The normal incidence quantum efficiency is found to be strongly asymmetric with respect to applied bias polarity. Based on the polarization-dependent absorption measurements it is concluded that, at a positive voltage, when holes move toward the nearest δ-doping plane, photocurrent is originated from the bound-to-continuum transitions of holes between the ground state confined in Ge dots and the extended states of the Si matrix. At a negative bias polarity, the photoresponse is caused by optical excitation to a quasibound state confined near the valence band edge with subsequent tunneling to the Si valence band. In a latter case, the possibility of hole transfer into continuum states arises from the electric field generated by charge distributed between quantum dots and delta-doping planes.

Population Estimation Methods for Free-Ranging Dogs: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Belo, Vinícius Silva; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; da Silva, Eduardo Sérgio; Barbosa, David Soeiro; Struchiner, Claudio José

2015-01-01

The understanding of the structure of free-roaming dog populations is of extreme importance for the planning and monitoring of populational control strategies and animal welfare. The methods used to estimate the abundance of this group of dogs are more complex than the ones used with domiciled owned dogs. In this systematic review, we analyze the techniques and the results obtained in studies that seek to estimate the size of free-ranging dog populations. Twenty-six studies were reviewed regarding the quality of execution and their capacity to generate valid estimates. Seven of the eight publications that take a simple count of the animal population did not consider the different probabilities of animal detection; only one study used methods based on distances; twelve relied on capture-recapture models for closed populations without considering heterogeneities in capture probabilities; six studies applied their own methods with different potential and limitations. Potential sources of bias in the studies were related to the inadequate description or implementation of animal capturing or viewing procedures and to inadequacies in the identification and registration of dogs. Thus, there was a predominance of estimates with low validity. Abundance and density estimates carried high variability, and all studies identified a greater number of male dogs. We point to enhancements necessary for the implementation of future studies and to potential updates and revisions to the recommendations of the World Health Organization with respect to the estimation of free-ranging dog populations.

'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

PubMed

Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social comparison modulates reward-driven attentional capture.

PubMed

Jiao, Jun; Du, Feng; He, Xiaosong; Zhang, Kan

2015-10-01

It is well established that attention can be captured by task irrelevant and non-salient objects associated with value through reward learning. However, it is unknown whether social comparison influences reward-driven attentional capture. The present study created four social contexts to examine whether different social comparisons modulate the reward-driven capture of attention. The results showed that reward-driven attentional capture varied with different social comparison conditions. Most prominently, reward-driven attentional capture is dramatically reduced in the disadvantageous social comparison context, in which an individual is informed that the other participant is earning more monetary reward for performing the same task. These findings suggest that social comparison can affect the reward-driven capture of attention.

Stream capture to form Red Pass, northern Soda Mountains, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David; Mahan, Shannon

2014-01-01

Red Pass, a narrow cut through the Soda Mountains important for prehistoric and early historic travelers, is quite young geologically. Its history of downcutting to capture streams west of the Soda Mountains, thereby draining much of eastern Fort Irwin, is told by the contrast in alluvial fan sediments on either side of the pass. Old alluvial fan deposits (>500 ka) were shed westward off an intact ridge of the Soda Mountains but by middle Pleistocene time, intermediate-age alluvial fan deposits (~100 ka) were laid down by streams flowing east through the pass into Silurian Valley. The pass was probably formed by stream capture driven by high levels of groundwater on the west side. This is evidenced by widespread wetland deposits west of the Soda Mountains. Sapping and spring discharge into Silurian Valley over millennia formed a low divide in the mountains that eventually was overtopped and incised by a stream. Lessons include the importance of groundwater levels for stream capture and the relatively youthful appearance of this ~100-200 ka feature in the slowly changing Mojave Desert landscape.

Effect of elevation on distribution of female bats in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cryan, P.M.; Bogan, M.A.; Altenbach, J.S.

2000-01-01

Presumably, reproductive female bats are more constrained by thermoregulatory and energy needs than are males and nonreproductive females. Constraints imposed on reproductive females may limit their geographic distribution relative to other bats. Such constraints likely increase with latitude and elevation. Males of 11 bat species that inhabit the Black Hills were captured more frequently than females, and reproductive females typically were encountered at low-elevational sites. To investigate the relationship between female distribution and elevation, we fitted a logistic regression model to evaluate the probability of reproductive-female capture as a function of elevation. Mist-net data from 1,197 captures of 7 species revealed that 75% of all captures were males. We found a significant inverse relationship between elevation and relative abundance of reproductive females. Relative abundance of reproductive females decreased as elevation increased. Reproductive females may be constrained from roosting and foraging in high-elevational habitats that impose thermoregulatory costs and decrease foraging efficiency. Failure to account for sex differences in distributional patterns along elevational gradients may significantly bias estimates of population size.

Origin of the moon by capture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, S. Fred

A coherent account is presented here based on the hypothesis that the moon formed separately in a heliocentric orbit similar to the earth's and was later captured by the earth. The adoption of this hypothesis, together with the observed depletion of iron in the moon, sets some important constraints on the condensation and agglomeration phenomena in the primeval solar nebula that led to the formation of planetesimals, and ultimately to planets. Capture of the moon also defines a severe heating event whereby the earth's kinetic energy of rotation is largely dissipated internally by the mechanism of tidal friction. From this melting event dates the geologic, atmospheric, and oceanic history of the earth. An attempt is made to account for the unique development of the earth, especially in relation to Mars and Venus, its neighboring planets. A capture origin of the moon that employs a 'push-pull' tidal theory does not strain the laws of physics, involves a minimum of ad hoc assumptions, and has a probability that is commensurate with the evidence of the existence of a unique moon.

Statistical Regularities Attract Attention when Task-Relevant.

PubMed

Alamia, Andrea; Zénon, Alexandre

2016-01-01

Visual attention seems essential for learning the statistical regularities in our environment, a process known as statistical learning. However, how attention is allocated when exploring a novel visual scene whose statistical structure is unknown remains unclear. In order to address this question, we investigated visual attention allocation during a task in which we manipulated the conditional probability of occurrence of colored stimuli, unbeknown to the subjects. Participants were instructed to detect a target colored dot among two dots moving along separate circular paths. We evaluated implicit statistical learning, i.e., the effect of color predictability on reaction times (RTs), and recorded eye position concurrently. Attention allocation was indexed by comparing the Mahalanobis distance between the position, velocity and acceleration of the eyes and the two colored dots. We found that learning the conditional probabilities occurred very early during the course of the experiment as shown by the fact that, starting already from the first block, predictable stimuli were detected with shorter RT than unpredictable ones. In terms of attentional allocation, we found that the predictive stimulus attracted gaze only when it was informative about the occurrence of the target but not when it predicted the occurrence of a task-irrelevant stimulus. This suggests that attention allocation was influenced by regularities only when they were instrumental in performing the task. Moreover, we found that the attentional bias towards task-relevant predictive stimuli occurred at a very early stage of learning, concomitantly with the first effects of learning on RT. In conclusion, these results show that statistical regularities capture visual attention only after a few occurrences, provided these regularities are instrumental to perform the task.

Natural flows of H2-rich fluids in the ophiolites of Oman and the Philippines: Tectonic control of migration pathways and associated diagenetic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deville, E. P.; Prinzhofer, A.; Vacquand, C.; Chavagnac, V.; Monnin, C.; Ceuleneer, G.; Arcilla, C. A.

2009-12-01

We compare the geological environments of sites of emission of natural hydrogen in the Oman ophiolite and the Zambales ophiolite (Luzon, Philippines). The genesis of natural H2 results from the interaction between ultrabasic rocks and aqueous solutions circulating in deep fracture networks, by oxidation of metals (Fe2+, Mn2+) and reduction of water, probably under high temperature conditions. This process generates very reducing conditions capable of destabilizing other molecules (notably reduction of deep CO2 being transformed into CH4 by Fisher-Tropsch type reactions). Nitrogen is also commonly associated to the H2-rich fluids. H2 flows are associated with the expulsion of hyperalkaline waters rich in ions OH- and Ca2+ and characterized by high pH (between 11 and 12). Most alkaline springs are found in the vicinity of major faults and/or lithological discontinuities like the basal thrust plane of the ophiolites and the peridotite-gabbro contact (Moho). Within the fracture networks, gas and water separate probably at shallow depth, i.e. close to the top of the upper aquifer level. Locally high flows of gas migrate vertically through fracture pathways and they are able to inflame spontaneously on the surface. Aqueous fluids tends to migrate laterally in the fracture network toward the creeks where most of the hyperalkaline springs are found. This water circulation induces a chain of diagenetic reactions starting in the fracture systems and continuing at the surface where it leads to the precipitation of calcite, aragonite, brucite and more rarely portlandite. This chain of diagenetic reactions is associated with the capture of the atmospheric CO2 during the precipitation of carbonates.

Estimating Incidence Rate of Hospital-Treated Self-Harm in Hong Kong Using Capture-Recapture Approach.

PubMed

Leung Kwok, Chi; Yip, Paul S F

2018-05-01

A surveillance system for self-harm has not been established in Hong Kong. The existing data source has an unknown degree of underreporting, and therefore a capture-recapture method has been proposed to correct for the incompleteness. To assess the underestimation of the incidence of self-harm cases presenting to hospital in Hong Kong using a capture and recapture method. Two different yet overlapping hospital administrative datasets of self-harm were obtained from all public hospitals in Hong Kong. From 2002 to 2011, 59,473 distinct episodes involving 36,411 patients were identified. A capture-recapture model considering heterogeneous capture probabilities was applied to estimate the number of self-harm episodes. The estimated number of self-harm incidence was 79,923, equally shared by females and males. Cases of self-harm by females were more likely to be ascertained than those by males. The estimated annual incidence rate of self-harm in Hong Kong from 2002 to 2011 ranged from 96.4 in 2010 to 132.7 in 2002. The proposed method does not include patients who required no medical attention and those where the patient consulted private doctors. The capture-recapture model is a useful method for adjusting the underestimation of self-harm cases from existing databases when surveillance system is not available and to reveal some hidden patterns.

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Pilliod, D.S.

2011-01-01

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse-time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6years of capture-recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0??41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0??51-0??54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0??75-0??78) but lower recruitment rates (0??25). Synthesis and applications.We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of conservation actions such as repatriations or habitat management aimed to improve recruitment. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology ?? 2011 British Ecological Society.

Conditional, Time-Dependent Probabilities for Segmented Type-A Faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Gupta, Vipin

2008-01-01

This appendix presents elastic-rebound-theory (ERT) motivated time-dependent probabilities, conditioned on the date of last earthquake, for the segmented type-A fault models of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). These probabilities are included as one option in the WGCEP?s Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF 2), with the other options being time-independent Poisson probabilities and an ?Empirical? model based on observed seismicity rate changes. A more general discussion of the pros and cons of all methods for computing time-dependent probabilities, as well as the justification of those chosen for UCERF 2, are given in the main body of this report (and the 'Empirical' model is also discussed in Appendix M). What this appendix addresses is the computation of conditional, time-dependent probabilities when both single- and multi-segment ruptures are included in the model. Computing conditional probabilities is relatively straightforward when a fault is assumed to obey strict segmentation in the sense that no multi-segment ruptures occur (e.g., WGCEP (1988, 1990) or see Field (2007) for a review of all previous WGCEPs; from here we assume basic familiarity with conditional probability calculations). However, and as we?ll see below, the calculation is not straightforward when multi-segment ruptures are included, in essence because we are attempting to apply a point-process model to a non point process. The next section gives a review and evaluation of the single- and multi-segment rupture probability-calculation methods used in the most recent statewide forecast for California (WGCEP UCERF 1; Petersen et al., 2007). We then present results for the methodology adopted here for UCERF 2. We finish with a discussion of issues and possible alternative approaches that could be explored and perhaps applied in the future. A fault-by-fault comparison of UCERF 2 probabilities with those of previous studies is given in the main part of this report.

Chapter 27: Mortality of Marbled Murrelets in Gill Nets in North America

Treesearch

Harry R. Carter; Michael L.C. McAllister; M.E. Pete Isleib

1995-01-01

Mortality of Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) due to accidental capture in gill nets is one of the major threats to murrelet populations. Gill-net mortality of murrelets throughout their range has been occurring for several decades and probably has contributed to declines in populations, in conjunction with loss of nesting habitat and...

Plethodontid salamander population ecology in managed forest headwaters in the Oregon coast range

Treesearch

Matthew R. Kluber; Deanna H. Olson

2013-01-01

We examined temporal and spatial patterns of terrestrial amphibian species abundances and individual movements in western Oregon managed headwater forest stands using artifi cial cover object (ACO) arrays. Using mark-recapture methods, we estimated the eff ects of species and seasonality on apparent survival rates and recapture probabilities. We captured, marked, and...

Computational Modeling of Statistical Learning: Effects of Transitional Probability versus Frequency and Links to Word Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirman, Daniel; Estes, Katharine Graf; Magnuson, James S.

2010-01-01

Statistical learning mechanisms play an important role in theories of language acquisition and processing. Recurrent neural network models have provided important insights into how these mechanisms might operate. We examined whether such networks capture two key findings in human statistical learning. In Simulation 1, a simple recurrent network…

An approximation formula for a class of fault-tolerant computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, A. L.

1986-01-01

An approximation formula is derived for the probability of failure for fault-tolerant process-control computers. These computers use redundancy and reconfiguration to achieve high reliability. Finite-state Markov models capture the dynamic behavior of component failure and system recovery, and the approximation formula permits an estimation of system reliability by an easy examination of the model.

Application of Influence Diagrams in Identifying Soviet Satellite Missions

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

Probabilities Comparison ......................... 58 35. Continuous Model Variables ............................ 59 36. Sample Inclination Data...diagramming is a method which allows the simple construction of a model to illustrate the interrelationships which exist among variables by capturing an...environmental monitoring systems. The module also contained an array of instruments for geophysical and astrophysical experimentation . 4.3.14.3 Soyuz. The Soyuz

The Formalism of Generalized Contexts and Decay Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losada, Marcelo; Laura, Roberto

2013-04-01

The formalism of generalized contexts for quantum histories is used to investigate the possibility to consider the survival probability as the probability of no decay property at a given time conditional to no decay property at an earlier time. A negative result is found for an isolated system. The inclusion of two quantum measurement instruments at two different times makes possible to interpret the survival probability as a conditional probability of the whole system.

First-passage and risk evaluation under stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoliver, Jaume; Perelló, Josep

2009-07-01

We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and the hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain approximate forms of these probabilities which prove, among other interesting properties, the nonexistence of a mean-first-passage time. One significant result is the evidence of extreme deviations—which implies a high risk of default—when certain dimensionless parameter, related to the strength of the volatility fluctuations, increases. We confront the model with empirical daily data and we observe that it is able to capture a very broad domain of the hitting probability. We believe that this may provide an effective tool for risk control which can be readily applicable to real markets both for portfolio management and trading strategies.

Graphical methods for the sensitivity analysis in discriminant analysis

DOE PAGES

Kim, Youngil; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Dae-Heung, Jang

2015-09-30

Similar to regression, many measures to detect influential data points in discriminant analysis have been developed. Many follow similar principles as the diagnostic measures used in linear regression in the context of discriminant analysis. Here we focus on the impact on the predicted classification posterior probability when a data point is omitted. The new method is intuitive and easily interpretative compared to existing methods. We also propose a graphical display to show the individual movement of the posterior probability of other data points when a specific data point is omitted. This enables the summaries to capture the overall pattern ofmore » the change.« less

Spacing distribution functions for the one-dimensional point-island model with irreversible attachment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, Diego Luis; Pimpinelli, Alberto; Einstein, T. L.

2011-07-01

We study the configurational structure of the point-island model for epitaxial growth in one dimension. In particular, we calculate the island gap and capture zone distributions. Our model is based on an approximate description of nucleation inside the gaps. Nucleation is described by the joint probability density pnXY(x,y), which represents the probability density to have nucleation at position x within a gap of size y. Our proposed functional form for pnXY(x,y) describes excellently the statistical behavior of the system. We compare our analytical model with extensive numerical simulations. Our model retains the most relevant physical properties of the system.

Stimulus-driven attentional capture by subliminal onset cues.

PubMed

Schoeberl, Tobias; Fuchs, Isabella; Theeuwes, Jan; Ansorge, Ulrich

2015-04-01

In two experiments, we tested whether subliminal abrupt onset cues capture attention in a stimulus-driven way. An onset cue was presented 16 ms prior to the stimulus display that consisted of clearly visible color targets. The onset cue was presented either at the same side as the target (the valid cue condition) or on the opposite side of the target (the invalid cue condition). Because the onset cue was presented 16 ms before other placeholders were presented, the cue was subliminal to the participant. To ensure that this subliminal cue captured attention in a stimulus-driven way, the cue's features did not match the top-down attentional control settings of the participants: (1) The color of the cue was always different than the color of the non-singleton targets ensuring that a top-down set for a specific color or for a singleton would not match the cue, and (2) colored targets and distractors had the same objective luminance (measured by the colorimeter) and subjective lightness (measured by flicker photometry), preventing a match between the top-down set for target and cue contrast. Even though a match between the cues and top-down settings was prevented, in both experiments, the cues captured attention, with faster response times in valid than invalid cue conditions (Experiments 1 and 2) and faster response times in valid than the neutral conditions (Experiment 2). The results support the conclusion that subliminal cues capture attention in a stimulus-driven way.

Disability Among Veterans: Analysis of the National Survey of Veterans (1997-2001).

PubMed

Gerber, Lynn H; Weinstein, Ali A; Frankenfeld, Cara L; Huynh, Minh

2016-03-01

This manuscript assesses whether the Veterans Administration Rating System (VADR) correlates with self-reported activities of daily living (ADL) used in the National Survey of Veterans and likelihood of employment. Veterans' disability benefits are determined based on a single-index standardized rating scheme, measured at time of discharge. The primary aim of this study was to assess how this single-index rating of disability for veterans compares to multidimensional measures of disability (ADL and instrumental activities of daily living [IADL]). The relationship between disability ratings and labor market outcomes such as job search behavior and the likelihood of being employed was assessed. Successful labor market reintegration requires both physical/mental well-being, we examined the extent that VADR can capture the relationship between job market behavior and measures of mental/physical health. Kernel regression estimates were obtained of the likelihood of working/looking for work. Mean numbers of IADL and ADL difficulties and medical conditions were positively associated with VADR (p-trend < 0.001). An inverse relationship was observed with VADR and predicted probability of working (p-trend < 0.001). The combination of >4 ADL/IADL deficits and mental health diagnosis increased the likelihood of not working. The probability of not working correlated with VADR when VADR was greater than 40%. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Continuous Probabilistic Modeling of Tracer Stone Dispersal in Upper Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez Moreira, R. R.; Viparelli, E.

2017-12-01

Morphodynamic models that specifically account for the non-uniformity of the bed material are generally based on some form of the active layer approximation. These models have proven to be useful tools in the study of transport, erosion and deposition of non-uniform bed material in the case of channel bed aggradation and degradation. However, when local spatial effects over short time scales compared to those characterizing the changes in mean bed elevation dominate the vertical sediment fluxes, as is the presence of bedforms, active layer models cannot capture key details of the sediment transport process. To overcome the limitations of active layer based models, Parker, Paola and Leclair (PPL) proposed a continuous probabilistic modeling frameworks in which the sediment exchange between the bedload transport and the mobile bed is described in terms of probability density functions of bed elevation, entrainment and deposition. Here we present the implementation of a modified version of the PPL modeling framework for the study of tracer stones dispsersal in upper regime bedload transport conditions (i.e. upper regime plane bed at the transition between dunes and antidunes, downstream migrating antidunes and upper regime plane bed with bedload transport in sheet flow mode) in which the probability functions are based on measured time series of bed elevation fluctuations. The extension to the more general case of mixtures of sediments differing in size is the future development of the proposed work.

Using dynamic geometry software for teaching conditional probability with area-proportional Venn diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas

2012-10-01

This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships, describe the quantitative relationship between two sets. The second feature is the slider and animation component of dynamic geometry software enabling students to observe how the change in the base rate of an event influences conditional probability. A hypothetical instructional sequence using a well-known breast cancer example is described.

Relative distribution and abundance of fishes and crayfish in 2010 and 2014 prior to saltcedar (Tamarix ssp.) removal in the Amargosa River Canyon, southeastern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, Mark E.

2016-07-22

The Amargosa River Canyon, located in the Mojave Desert of southeastern California, contains the longest perennial reach of the Amargosa River. Because of its diverse flora and fauna, it has been designated as an Area of Critical Environmental Concern and a Wild and Scenic River by the Bureau of Land Management. A survey of fishes conducted in summer 2010 indicated that endemic Amargosa River pupfish (Cyprinodon nevadensis amargosae) and speckled dace (Rhinichthys osculus spp.) were abundant and occurred throughout the Amargosa River Canyon. The 2010 survey reported non-native red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) and western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) captures were significantly higher, whereas pupfish captures were lower, in areas dominated by non-native saltcedar (Tamarix ssp.). Based on the 2010 survey, it was hypothesized that the invasion of saltcedar could result in a decrease in native species. In an effort to maintain and enhance native fish populations, the Bureau of Land Management removed saltcedar from a 1,550 meter reach of stream on the Amargosa River in autumn 2014 and autumn 2015. Prior to the removal of saltcedar, a survey of fishes and crayfish using baited minnow traps was conducted in the treatment reach to serve as a baseline for future comparisons with post-saltcedar removal surveys. During the 2014 survey, 1,073 pupfish and 960 speckled dace were captured within the treatment reach. Catch per unit effort of pupfish and speckled dace in the treatment reach was less in 2014 than in 2010, although differences could be owing to seasonal variation in capture probability. Non-native mosquitofish catch per unit effort decreased from 2010 to 2014; however, the catch per unit effort of crayfish increased from 2010 to 2014. Future monitoring efforts of this reach should be conducted at the same time period to account for potential seasonal fluctuations of abundance and distribution of fishes and crayfish. A more robust study design that accounts for variation in capture probability could be implemented to quantify the effects of habitat modifications on abundance of fishes and crayfish.

Snowball Vs. House-to-House Technique for Measuring Annual Incidence of Kala-azar in the Higher Endemic Blocks of Bihar, India: A Comparison

PubMed Central

Siddiqui, Niyamat A.; Rabidas, Vidya N.; Sinha, Sanjay K.; Verma, Rakesh B.; Pandey, Krishna; Singh, Vijay P.; Ranjan, Alok; Topno, Roshan K.; Lal, Chandra S.; Kumar, Vijay; Sahoo, Ganesh C.; Sridhar, Srikantaih; Pandey, Arvind; Das, Pradeep

2016-01-01

Background Visceral Leishmaniasis, commonly known as kala-azar, is widely prevalent in Bihar. The National Kala-azar Control Program has applied house-to-house survey approach several times for estimating Kala-azar incidence in the past. However, this approach includes huge logistics and operational cost, as occurrence of kala-azar is clustered in nature. The present study aims to compare efficiency, cost and feasibility of snowball sampling approach to house-to-house survey approach in capturing kala-azar cases in two endemic districts of Bihar, India. Methodology/Principal findings A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in two highly endemic Primary Health Centre (PHC) areas, each from two endemic districts of Bihar, India. Snowball technique (used to locate potential subjects with help of key informants where subjects are hard to locate) and house-to-house survey technique were applied to detect all the new cases of Kala-azar during a defined reference period of one year i.e. June, 2010 to May, 2011. The study covered a total of 105,035 households with 537,153 populations. Out of total 561 cases and 17 deaths probably due to kala-azar, identified by the study, snowball sampling approach captured only 221 cases and 13 deaths, whereas 489 cases and 17 deaths were detected by house-to-house survey approach. Higher value of McNemar’s χ² statistics (64; p<0.0001) for house-to-house survey approach than snowball sampling and relative difference (>1) indicates that most of the kala-azar cases missed by snowball sampling were captured by house-to-house approach with 13% of omission. Conclusion/Significance Snowball sampling was not found sensitive enough as it captured only about 50% of VL cases. However, it captured about 77% of the deaths probably due to kala-azar and was found more cost-effective than house-to-house approach. Standardization of snowball approach with improved procedure, training and logistics may enhance the sensitivity of snowball sampling and its application in national Kala-azar elimination programme as cost-effective approach for estimation of kala-azar burden. PMID:27681709

Snowball Vs. House-to-House Technique for Measuring Annual Incidence of Kala-azar in the Higher Endemic Blocks of Bihar, India: A Comparison.

PubMed

Siddiqui, Niyamat A; Rabidas, Vidya N; Sinha, Sanjay K; Verma, Rakesh B; Pandey, Krishna; Singh, Vijay P; Ranjan, Alok; Topno, Roshan K; Lal, Chandra S; Kumar, Vijay; Sahoo, Ganesh C; Sridhar, Srikantaih; Pandey, Arvind; Das, Pradeep

2016-09-01

Visceral Leishmaniasis, commonly known as kala-azar, is widely prevalent in Bihar. The National Kala-azar Control Program has applied house-to-house survey approach several times for estimating Kala-azar incidence in the past. However, this approach includes huge logistics and operational cost, as occurrence of kala-azar is clustered in nature. The present study aims to compare efficiency, cost and feasibility of snowball sampling approach to house-to-house survey approach in capturing kala-azar cases in two endemic districts of Bihar, India. A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in two highly endemic Primary Health Centre (PHC) areas, each from two endemic districts of Bihar, India. Snowball technique (used to locate potential subjects with help of key informants where subjects are hard to locate) and house-to-house survey technique were applied to detect all the new cases of Kala-azar during a defined reference period of one year i.e. June, 2010 to May, 2011. The study covered a total of 105,035 households with 537,153 populations. Out of total 561 cases and 17 deaths probably due to kala-azar, identified by the study, snowball sampling approach captured only 221 cases and 13 deaths, whereas 489 cases and 17 deaths were detected by house-to-house survey approach. Higher value of McNemar's χ² statistics (64; p<0.0001) for house-to-house survey approach than snowball sampling and relative difference (>1) indicates that most of the kala-azar cases missed by snowball sampling were captured by house-to-house approach with 13% of omission. Snowball sampling was not found sensitive enough as it captured only about 50% of VL cases. However, it captured about 77% of the deaths probably due to kala-azar and was found more cost-effective than house-to-house approach. Standardization of snowball approach with improved procedure, training and logistics may enhance the sensitivity of snowball sampling and its application in national Kala-azar elimination programme as cost-effective approach for estimation of kala-azar burden.

The World According to de Finetti: On de Finetti's Theory of Probability and Its Application to Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkovitz, Joseph

Bruno de Finetti is one of the founding fathers of the subjectivist school of probability, where probabilities are interpreted as rational degrees of belief. His work on the relation between the theorems of probability and rationality is among the corner stones of modern subjective probability theory. De Finetti maintained that rationality requires that degrees of belief be coherent, and he argued that the whole of probability theory could be derived from these coherence conditions. De Finetti's interpretation of probability has been highly influential in science. This paper focuses on the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics. We argue that de Finetti held that the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events depend on their verifiability. Accordingly, the standard coherence conditions of degrees of belief that are familiar from the literature on subjective probability only apply to degrees of belief in events which could (in principle) be jointly verified; and the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events that cannot be jointly verified are weaker. While the most obvious explanation of de Finetti's verificationism is the influence of positivism, we argue that it could be motivated by the radical subjectivist and instrumental nature of probability in his interpretation; for as it turns out, in this interpretation it is difficult to make sense of the idea of coherent degrees of belief in, and accordingly probabilities of unverifiable events. We then consider the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics, concentrating on the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen experiment and Bell's theorem.

fatalityCMR: capture-recapture software to correct raw counts of wildlife fatalities using trial experiments for carcass detection probability and persistence time

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peron, Guillaume; Hines, James E.

2014-01-01

Many industrial and agricultural activities involve wildlife fatalities by collision, poisoning or other involuntary harvest: wind turbines, highway network, utility network, tall structures, pesticides, etc. Impacted wildlife may benefit from official protection, including the requirement to monitor the impact. Carcass counts can often be conducted to quantify the number of fatalities, but they need to be corrected for carcass persistence time (removal by scavengers and decay) and detection probability (searcher efficiency). In this article we introduce a new piece of software that fits a superpopulation capture-recapture model to raw count data. It uses trial data to estimate detection and daily persistence probabilities. A recurrent issue is that fatalities of rare, protected species are infrequent, in which case the software offers the option to switch to an ‘evidence of absence’ mode, i.e., estimate the number of carcasses that may have been missed by field crews. The software allows distinguishing between different turbine types (e.g. different vegetation cover under turbines, or different technical properties), as well between two carcass age-classes or states, with transition between those classes (e.g, fresh and dry). There is a data simulation capacity that may be used at the planning stage to optimize sampling design. Resulting mortality estimates can be used 1) to quantify the required amount of compensation, 2) inform mortality projections for proposed development sites, and 3) inform decisions about management of existing sites.

Conformational switching upon phosphorylation: a predictive framework based on energy landscape principles.

PubMed

Lätzer, Joachim; Shen, Tongye; Wolynes, Peter G

2008-02-19

We investigate how post-translational phosphorylation modifies the global conformation of a protein by changing its free energy landscape using two test proteins, cystatin and NtrC. We first examine the changes in a free energy landscape caused by phosphorylation using a model containing information about both structural forms. For cystatin the free energy cost is fairly large indicating a low probability of sampling the phosphorylated conformation in a perfectly funneled landscape. The predicted barrier for NtrC conformational transition is several times larger than the barrier for cystatin, indicating that the switch protein NtrC most probably follows a partial unfolding mechanism to move from one basin to the other. Principal component analysis and linear response theory show how the naturally occurring conformational changes in unmodified proteins are captured and stabilized by the change of interaction potential. We also develop a partially guided structure prediction Hamiltonian which is capable of predicting the global structure of a phosphorylated protein using only knowledge of the structure of the unphosphorylated protein or vice versa. This algorithm makes use of a generic transferable long-range residue contact potential along with details of structure short range in sequence. By comparing the results obtained with this guided transferable potential to those from the native-only, perfectly funneled Hamiltonians, we show that the transferable Hamiltonian correctly captures the nature of the global conformational changes induced by phosphorylation and can sample substantially correct structures for the modified protein with high probability.

Combining band recovery data and Pollock's robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, M.S.; Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.; Anderson, M.G.

2001-01-01

Capture-recapture models are widely used to estimate demographic parameters of marked populations. Recently, this statistical theory has been extended to modeling dispersal of open populations. Multistate models can be used to estimate movement probabilities among subdivided populations if multiple sites are sampled. Frequently, however, sampling is limited to a single site. Models described by Burnham (1993, in Marked Individuals in the Study of Bird Populations, 199-213), which combined open population capture-recapture and band-recovery models, can be used to estimate permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. Similarly, Kendall, Nichols, and Hines (1997, Ecology 51, 563-578) developed models to estimate temporary emigration under Pollock's (1982, Journal of Wildlife Management 46, 757-760) robust design. We describe a likelihood-based approach to simultaneously estimate temporary and permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. We use a sampling design that combines the robust design and recoveries of individuals obtained immediately following each sampling period. We present a general form for our model where temporary emigration is a first-order Markov process, and we discuss more restrictive models. We illustrate these models with analysis of data on marked Canvasback ducks. Our analysis indicates that probability of permanent emigration for adult female Canvasbacks was 0.193 (SE = 0.082) and that birds that were present at the study area in year i - 1 had a higher probability of presence in year i than birds that were not present in year i - 1.

Estimating reach-specific fish movement probabilities in rivers with a Bayesian state-space model: application to sea lamprey passage and capture at dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holbrook, Christopher M.; Johnson, Nicholas S.; Steibel, Juan P.; Twohey, Michael B.; Binder, Thomas R.; Krueger, Charles C.; Jones, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Improved methods are needed to evaluate barriers and traps for control and assessment of invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the Great Lakes. A Bayesian state-space model provided reach-specific probabilities of movement, including trap capture and dam passage, for 148 acoustic tagged invasive sea lamprey in the lower Cheboygan River, Michigan, a tributary to Lake Huron. Reach-specific movement probabilities were combined to obtain estimates of spatial distribution and abundance needed to evaluate a barrier and trap complex for sea lamprey control and assessment. Of an estimated 21 828 – 29 300 adult sea lampreys in the river, 0%–2%, or 0–514 untagged lampreys, could have passed upstream of the dam, and 46%–61% were caught in the trap. Although no tagged lampreys passed above the dam (0/148), our sample size was not sufficient to consider the lock and dam a complete barrier to sea lamprey. Results also showed that existing traps are in good locations because 83%–96% of the population was vulnerable to existing traps. However, only 52%–69% of lampreys vulnerable to traps were caught, suggesting that traps can be improved. The approach used in this study was a novel use of Bayesian state-space models that may have broader applications, including evaluation of barriers for other invasive species (e.g., Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.)) and fish passage structures for other diadromous fishes.

Simulation of the recharge area for Frederick Springs, Dane County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, R.J.; Steuer, J.J.

2000-01-01

Analysis of samples from the springs and a nearby municipal well identified large contrasts in chemistry, even for springs within 50 feet of one another. The differences were stable over time, were present in both ion and isotope analyses, and showed a distinct gradation from high nitrate, high calcium, Ordovician-carbonate dominated water in western spring vents to low nitrate, lower calcium, Cambrian-sandstone influenced water in eastern spring vents. The difference in chemistry was attributed to distinctive bedrock geology as demonstrated by overlaying the 50 percent probability capture zone over a bedrock geology map for the area. This finding gives additional confidence to the capture zone calculated by the ground-water flow model.

Capture approximations beyond a statistical quantum mechanical method for atom-diatom reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrios, Lizandra; Rubayo-Soneira, Jesús; González-Lezana, Tomás

2016-03-01

Statistical techniques constitute useful approaches to investigate atom-diatom reactions mediated by insertion dynamics which involves complex-forming mechanisms. Different capture schemes based on energy considerations regarding the specific diatom rovibrational states are suggested to evaluate the corresponding probabilities of formation of such collision species between reactants and products in an attempt to test reliable alternatives for computationally demanding processes. These approximations are tested in combination with a statistical quantum mechanical method for the S + H2(v = 0 ,j = 1) → SH + H and Si + O2(v = 0 ,j = 1) → SiO + O reactions, where this dynamical mechanism plays a significant role, in order to probe their validity.

Cholinergic modulation of stimulus-driven attentional capture.

PubMed

Boucart, Muriel; Michael, George Andrew; Bubicco, Giovanna; Ponchel, Amelie; Waucquier, Nawal; Deplanque, Dominique; Deguil, Julie; Bordet, Régis

2015-04-15

Distraction is one of the main problems encountered by people with degenerative diseases that are associated with reduced cortical cholinergic innervations. We examined the effects of donepezil, a cholinesterase inhibitor, on stimulus-driven attentional capture. Reflexive attention shifts to a distractor are usually elicited by abrupt peripheral changes. This bottom-up shift of attention to a salient item is thought to be the result of relatively inflexible hardwired mechanisms. Thirty young male participants were randomly allocated to one of two groups: placebo first/donepezil second session or the opposite. They were asked to locate a target appearing above and below fixation whilst a peripheral distractor moved abruptly (motion-jitter attentional capture condition) or not (baseline condition). A classical attentional capture effect was observed under placebo: moving distractors interfered with the task in slowing down response times as compared to the baseline condition with fixed distractors. Increased interference from moving distractors was found under donepezil. We suggest that attentional capture in our paradigm likely involved low level mechanisms such as automatic reflexive orienting. Peripheral motion-jitter elicited a rapid reflexive orienting response initiated by a cholinergic signal from the brainstem pedunculo-pontine nucleus that activates nicotinic receptors in the superior colliculus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

PubMed Central

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. Results When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Conclusions Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing. PMID:27004080

Estimating rates of local extinction and colonization in colonial species and an extension to the metapopulation and community levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbraud, C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Hafner, H.

2003-01-01

Coloniality has mainly been studied from an evolutionary perspective, but relatively few studies have developed methods for modelling colony dynamics. Changes in number of colonies over time provide a useful tool for predicting and evaluating the responses of colonial species to management and to environmental disturbance. Probabilistic Markov process models have been recently used to estimate colony site dynamics using presence-absence data when all colonies are detected in sampling efforts. Here, we define and develop two general approaches for the modelling and analysis of colony dynamics for sampling situations in which all colonies are, and are not, detected. For both approaches, we develop a general probabilistic model for the data and then constrain model parameters based on various hypotheses about colony dynamics. We use Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the adequacy of the constrained models. The models are parameterised with conditional probabilities of local colony site extinction and colonization. Presence-absence data arising from Pollock's robust capture-recapture design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of extinction, colonization, and detection probabilities when not all colonies are detected. This second approach should be particularly useful in situations where detection probabilities are heterogeneous among colony sites. The general methodology is illustrated using presence-absence data on two species of herons (Purple Heron, Ardea purpurea and Grey Heron, Ardea cinerea). Estimates of the extinction and colonization rates showed interspecific differences and strong temporal and spatial variations. We were also able to test specific predictions about colony dynamics based on ideas about habitat change and metapopulation dynamics. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modelling for future work on colony dynamics. We also believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning metapopulation and community dynamics.

Modeling Invasion Dynamics with Spatial Random-Fitness Due to Micro-Environment

PubMed Central

Manem, V. S. K.; Kaveh, K.; Kohandel, M.; Sivaloganathan, S.

2015-01-01

Numerous experimental studies have demonstrated that the microenvironment is a key regulator influencing the proliferative and migrative potentials of species. Spatial and temporal disturbances lead to adverse and hazardous microenvironments for cellular systems that is reflected in the phenotypic heterogeneity within the system. In this paper, we study the effect of microenvironment on the invasive capability of species, or mutants, on structured grids (in particular, square lattices) under the influence of site-dependent random proliferation in addition to a migration potential. We discuss both continuous and discrete fitness distributions. Our results suggest that the invasion probability is negatively correlated with the variance of fitness distribution of mutants (for both advantageous and neutral mutants) in the absence of migration of both types of cells. A similar behaviour is observed even in the presence of a random fitness distribution of host cells in the system with neutral fitness rate. In the case of a bimodal distribution, we observe zero invasion probability until the system reaches a (specific) proportion of advantageous phenotypes. Also, we find that the migrative potential amplifies the invasion probability as the variance of fitness of mutants increases in the system, which is the exact opposite in the absence of migration. Our computational framework captures the harsh microenvironmental conditions through quenched random fitness distributions and migration of cells, and our analysis shows that they play an important role in the invasion dynamics of several biological systems such as bacterial micro-habitats, epithelial dysplasia, and metastasis. We believe that our results may lead to more experimental studies, which can in turn provide further insights into the role and impact of heterogeneous environments on invasion dynamics. PMID:26509572

The "Residential" Effect Fallacy in Neighborhood and Health Studies: Formal Definition, Empirical Identification, and Correction.

PubMed

Chaix, Basile; Duncan, Dustin; Vallée, Julie; Vernez-Moudon, Anne; Benmarhnia, Tarik; Kestens, Yan

2017-11-01

Because of confounding from the urban/rural and socioeconomic organizations of territories and resulting correlation between residential and nonresidential exposures, classically estimated residential neighborhood-outcome associations capture nonresidential environment effects, overestimating residential intervention effects. Our study diagnosed and corrected this "residential" effect fallacy bias applicable to a large fraction of neighborhood and health studies. Our empirical application investigated the effect that hypothetical interventions raising the residential number of services would have on the probability that a trip is walked. Using global positioning systems tracking and mobility surveys over 7 days (227 participants and 7440 trips), we employed a multilevel linear probability model to estimate the trip-level association between residential number of services and walking to derive a naïve intervention effect estimate and a corrected model accounting for numbers of services at the residence, trip origin, and trip destination to determine a corrected intervention effect estimate (true effect conditional on assumptions). There was a strong correlation in service densities between the residential neighborhood and nonresidential places. From the naïve model, hypothetical interventions raising the residential number of services to 200, 500, and 1000 were associated with an increase by 0.020, 0.055, and 0.109 of the probability of walking in the intervention groups. Corrected estimates were of 0.007, 0.019, and 0.039. Thus, naïve estimates were overestimated by multiplicative factors of 3.0, 2.9, and 2.8. Commonly estimated residential intervention-outcome associations substantially overestimate true effects. Our somewhat paradoxical conclusion is that to estimate residential effects, investigators critically need information on nonresidential places visited.

Conservative Analytical Collision Probabilities for Orbital Formation Flying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Conservative Analytical Collision Probability for Design of Orbital Formations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Collaborative real-time scheduling of multiple PTZ cameras for multiple object tracking in video surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yu-Che; Huang, Chung-Lin

2013-03-01

This paper proposes a multi-PTZ-camera control mechanism to acquire close-up imagery of human objects in a surveillance system. The control algorithm is based on the output of multi-camera, multi-target tracking. Three main concerns of the algorithm are (1) the imagery of human object's face for biometric purposes, (2) the optimal video quality of the human objects, and (3) minimum hand-off time. Here, we define an objective function based on the expected capture conditions such as the camera-subject distance, pan tile angles of capture, face visibility and others. Such objective function serves to effectively balance the number of captures per subject and quality of captures. In the experiments, we demonstrate the performance of the system which operates in real-time under real world conditions on three PTZ cameras.

Ab initio thermodynamic approach to identify mixed solid sorbents for CO 2 capture technology

DOE PAGES

Duan, Yuhua

2015-10-15

Because the current technologies for capturing CO 2 are still too energy intensive, new materials must be developed that can capture CO 2 reversibly with acceptable energy costs. At a given CO 2 pressure, the turnover temperature (T t) of the reaction of an individual solid that can capture CO 2 is fixed. Such T t may be outside the operating temperature range (ΔT o) for a practical capture technology. To adjust T t to fit the practical ΔT o, in this study, three scenarios of mixing schemes are explored by combining thermodynamic database mining with first principles density functionalmore » theory and phonon lattice dynamics calculations. Our calculated results demonstrate that by mixing different types of solids, it’s possible to shift T t to the range of practical operating temperature conditions. According to the requirements imposed by the pre- and post- combustion technologies and based on our calculated thermodynamic properties for the CO 2 capture reactions by the mixed solids of interest, we were able to identify the mixing ratios of two or more solids to form new sorbent materials for which lower capture energy costs are expected at the desired pressure and temperature conditions.« less

Comparison of spring measures of length, weight, and condition factor for predicting metamorphosis in two populations of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) larvae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henson, Mary P.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Adams, Jean V.

2003-01-01

The ability to predict when sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) will metamorphose from the larval phase to the parasitic phase is essential to the operation of the sea lamprey control program. During the spring of 1994, two populations of sea lamprey larvae from two rivers were captured, measured, weighed, implanted with coded wire tags, and returned to the same sites in the streams from which they were taken. Sea lampreys were recovered in the fall, after metamorphosis would have occurred, and checked for the presence of a tag. When the spring data were compared to the fall data it was found that the minimum requirements (length ≥ 120 mm, weight ≥ 3 g, and condition factor ≥ 1.50) suggested for metamorphosis did define a pool of larvae capable of metamorphosing. However, logistic regressions that relate the probability of metamorphosis to size are necessary to predict metamorphosis in a population. The data indicated, based on cross-validation, that weight measurements alone predicted metamorphosis with greater precision than length or condition factor in both the Marengo and Amnicon rivers. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion, weight alone was a better predictor in the Amnicon River, but length and condition factor combined predicted metamorphosis better in the Marengo River. There would be no additional cost if weight alone were used instead of length. However, if length and weight were measured the gain in predictive power would not be enough to justify the additional cost.

Skin parasitism by Paratrichosoma recurvum in wild American crocodiles and its relation to environmental and biological factors.

PubMed

Charruau, Pierre; Pérez-Flores, Jonathan S; Labarre, Didier

2017-01-24

Paratrichosma spp. are capillarid worms that parasitize the abdominal skin of crocodiles. They are likely not a threat to crocodiles' health, but they affect the skins' commercial value. No successful treatment exists against this parasite, and present knowledge of its life cycle is limited. Herein we report new information on Paratrichosoma recurvum occurrence in wild American crocodiles Crocodylus acutus from Mexican Caribbean islands and its relation to environmental (water salinity, temperature, climatic events) and biological (body condition) factors. The percentage of parasitized crocodiles (30.3%) is among the highest recorded in wild crocodilian populations. Small (<40.8 cm total length [TL]) and large (>270 cm TL) crocodiles are less parasitized, probably due to the characteristics of their skin or of the parasite life cycle. Two individuals appeared to have eliminated worms naturally between their capture and recapture. The thorax-abdomen is the most parasitized area of the body of crocodiles. The risk of infection is not associated with the sex of the crocodile, but there was a difference in the proportion of parasitized crocodiles between sites, which could be related to different environmental conditions. The body condition of a crocodile does not seem to be affected by the parasite. Climatic events and water temperature show no effect on the parasitism of crocodiles, but salinity could have an effect. The infection of crocodiles by P. recurvum could depend more on an individual's behavior than on environmental conditions.

Implementation of the Iterative Proportion Fitting Algorithm for Geostatistical Facies Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Yupeng, E-mail: yupeng@ualberta.ca; Deutsch, Clayton V.

2012-06-15

In geostatistics, most stochastic algorithm for simulation of categorical variables such as facies or rock types require a conditional probability distribution. The multivariate probability distribution of all the grouped locations including the unsampled location permits calculation of the conditional probability directly based on its definition. In this article, the iterative proportion fitting (IPF) algorithm is implemented to infer this multivariate probability. Using the IPF algorithm, the multivariate probability is obtained by iterative modification to an initial estimated multivariate probability using lower order bivariate probabilities as constraints. The imposed bivariate marginal probabilities are inferred from profiles along drill holes or wells.more » In the IPF process, a sparse matrix is used to calculate the marginal probabilities from the multivariate probability, which makes the iterative fitting more tractable and practical. This algorithm can be extended to higher order marginal probability constraints as used in multiple point statistics. The theoretical framework is developed and illustrated with estimation and simulation example.« less

Using Dynamic Geometry Software for Teaching Conditional Probability with Area-Proportional Venn Diagrams

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas

2012-01-01

This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships,…

Live Cell Genomics: RNA Exon-Specific RNA-Binding Protein Isolation.

PubMed

Bell, Thomas J; Eberwine, James

2015-01-01

RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) are essential regulatory proteins that control all modes of RNA processing and regulation. New experimental approaches to isolate these indispensable proteins under in vivo conditions are needed to advance the field of RBP biology. Historically, in vitro biochemical approaches to isolate RBP complexes have been useful and productive, but biological relevance of the identified RBP complexes can be imprecise or erroneous. Here we review an inventive experimental to isolate RBPs under the in vivo conditions. The method is called peptide nucleic acid (PNA)-assisted identification of RBP (PAIR) technology and it uses cell-penetrating peptides (CPPs) to deliver photo-activatible RBP-capture molecule to the cytoplasm of the live cells. The PAIR methodology provides two significant advantages over the most commonly used approaches: (1) it overcomes the in vitro limitation of standard biochemical approaches and (2) the PAIR RBP-capture molecule is highly selective and adaptable which allows investigators to isolate exon-specific RBP complexes. Most importantly, the in vivo capture conditions and selectivity of the RBP-capture molecule yield biologically accurate and relevant RBP data.

Ultrathin graphene oxide-based hollow fiber membranes with brush-like CO2-philic agent for highly efficient CO2 capture.

PubMed

Zhou, Fanglei; Tien, Huynh Ngoc; Xu, Weiwei L; Chen, Jung-Tsai; Liu, Qiuli; Hicks, Ethan; Fathizadeh, Mahdi; Li, Shiguang; Yu, Miao

2017-12-13

Among the current CO 2 capture technologies, membrane gas separation has many inherent advantages over other conventional techniques. However, fabricating gas separation membranes with both high CO 2 permeance and high CO 2 /N 2 selectivity, especially under wet conditions, is a challenge. In this study, sub-20-nm thick, layered graphene oxide (GO)-based hollow fiber membranes with grafted, brush-like CO 2 -philic agent alternating between GO layers are prepared by a facile coating process for highly efficient CO 2 /N 2 separation under wet conditions. Piperazine, as an effective CO 2 -philic agent, is introduced as a carrier-brush into the GO nanochannels with chemical bonding. The membrane exhibits excellent separation performance under simulated flue gas conditions with CO 2 permeance of 1,020 GPU and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity as high as 680, demonstrating its potential for CO 2 capture from flue gas. We expect this GO-based membrane structure combined with the facile coating process to facilitate the development of ultrathin GO-based membranes for CO 2 capture.

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nisbet, I.C.T.; Cam, E.

2002-01-01

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.

Post-Control Surveillance of Triatoma infestans and Triatoma sordida with Chemically-Baited Sticky Traps

PubMed Central

Acosta, Nidia; López, Elsa; González, Nilsa; Zerba, Eduardo; Tarelli, Guillermo; Masuh, Héctor

2012-01-01

Background Chagas disease prevention critically depends on keeping houses free of triatomine vectors. Insecticide spraying is very effective, but re-infestation of treated dwellings is commonplace. Early detection-elimination of re-infestation foci is key to long-term control; however, all available vector-detection methods have low sensitivity. Chemically-baited traps are widely used in vector and pest control-surveillance systems; here, we test this approach for Triatoma spp. detection under field conditions in the Gran Chaco. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a repeated-sampling approach and logistic models that explicitly take detection failures into account, we simultaneously estimate vector occurrence and detection probabilities. We then model detection probabilities (conditioned on vector occurrence) as a function of trapping system to measure the effect of chemical baits. We find a positive effect of baits after three (odds ratio [OR] 5.10; 95% confidence interval [CI95] 2.59–10.04) and six months (OR 2.20, CI95 1.04–4.65). Detection probabilities are estimated at p≈0.40–0.50 for baited and at just p≈0.15 for control traps. Bait effect is very strong on T. infestans (three-month assessment: OR 12.30, CI95 4.44–34.10; p≈0.64), whereas T. sordida is captured with similar frequency in baited and unbaited traps. Conclusions/Significance Chemically-baited traps hold promise for T. infestans surveillance; the sensitivity of the system at detecting small re-infestation foci rises from 12.5% to 63.6% when traps are baited with semiochemicals. Accounting for imperfect detection, infestation is estimated at 26% (CI95 16–40) after three and 20% (CI95 11–34) after six months. In the same assessments, traps detected infestation in 14% and 8.5% of dwellings, whereas timed manual searches (the standard approach) did so in just 1.4% of dwellings only in the first survey. Since infestation rates are the main indicator used for decision-making in control programs, the approach we present may help improve T. infestans surveillance and control program management. PMID:23029583

Estimation and Correction of bias of long-term simulated climate data from Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehan, S.; Gitau, M. W.

2017-12-01

Global circulation models are often used in simulating long-term climate data for use in hydrologic studies. However, some bias (difference between simulated values and observed data) has been observed especially while simulating precipitation events. The bias is especially evident with respect to simulating dry and wet days. This is because GCMs tend to underestimate large precipitation events with the associated precipitation amounts being distributed to some dry days, thus, leading to a larger number of wet days each with some amount of rainfall. The accuracy of precipitation simulations impacts the accuracy of other simulated components such as flow and water quality. It is, thus, very important to correct the bias associated with precipitation before it is used for any modeling applications. This study aims to correct the bias specifically associated with precipitation events with a focus on the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). Analytical, statistical, and extreme event analyses for three different stations (Adrian, MI; Norwalk, OH; and Fort Wayne, IN) in the WLEB were carried out to quantify the bias. Findings indicated that GCMs overestimated the wet sequences and underestimated dry day probabilities. The number of wet sequences simulated by nine GCMs each from two different open sources were 310-678 (Fort Wayne, IN); 318-600 (Adrian, MI); and 346-638 (Norwalk, OH) compared with 166, 150, and 180, respectively. Predicted conditional probabilities of a dry day followed by wet day (P (D|W)) ranged between 0.16-0.42 (Fort Wayne, IN); 0.29-0.41(Adrian, MI); and 0.13-0.40 (Norwalk, OH) from the different GCMs compared to 0.52 (Fort Wayne, IN and Norwalk, OH); and 0.54 (Adrian, MI) from the observed climate data. There was a difference of 0-8.5% between the distribution of simulated climate values and observed climate data for precipitation and temperature for all three stations (Cohen's d effective size < 0.2). Further work involves the use of Stochastic Weather Generators to correct the conditional probabilities and better capture the dry and wet events for use in the hydrologic and water resources modeling.

Statistical learning of action: the role of conditional probability.

PubMed

Meyer, Meredith; Baldwin, Dare

2011-12-01

Identification of distinct units within a continuous flow of human action is fundamental to action processing. Such segmentation may rest in part on statistical learning. In a series of four experiments, we examined what types of statistics people can use to segment a continuous stream involving many brief, goal-directed action elements. The results of Experiment 1 showed no evidence for sensitivity to conditional probability, whereas Experiment 2 displayed learning based on joint probability. In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that additional exposure to the input failed to engender sensitivity to conditional probability. However, the results of Experiment 4 showed that a subset of adults-namely, those more successful at identifying actions that had been seen more frequently than comparison sequences-were also successful at learning conditional-probability statistics. These experiments help to clarify the mechanisms subserving processing of intentional action, and they highlight important differences from, as well as similarities to, prior studies of statistical learning in other domains, including language.

The Pursuit of Word Meanings

PubMed Central

Stevens, Jon Scott; Gleitman, Lila R.; Trueswell, John C.; Yang, Charles

2016-01-01

We evaluate here the performance of four models of cross-situational word learning; two global models, which extract and retain multiple referential alternatives from each word occurrence; and two local models, which extract just a single referent from each occurrence. One of these local models, dubbed Pursuit, uses an associative learning mechanism to estimate word-referent probability but pursues and tests the best referent-meaning at any given time. Pursuit is found to perform as well as global models under many conditions extracted from naturalistic corpora of parent child-interactions, even though the model maintains far less information than global models. Moreover, Pursuit is found to best capture human experimental findings from several relevant cross-situational word-learning experiments, including those of Yu and Smith (2007), the paradigm example of a finding believed to support fully global cross-situational models. Implications and limitations of these results are discussed, most notably that the model characterizes only the earliest stages of word learning, when reliance on the co-occurring referent world is at its greatest. PMID:27666335

Stars with relativistic speeds in the Hills scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dremova, G. N.; Dremov, V. V.; Tutukov, A. V.

2017-07-01

The dynamical capture of a binary system consisting of a supermassive black hole (SMBH) and an ordinary star in the gravitational field of a central (more massive) SMBH is considered in the three-body problem in the framework of a modified Hills scenario. The results of numerical simulations predict the existence of objects whose spatial speeds are comparable to the speed of light. The conditions for and constraints imposed on the ejection speeds realized in a classical scenario and the modified Hills scenario are analyzed. The star is modeled using an N-body approach, making it possible to treat it as a structured object, enabling estimation of the probability that the object survives when it is ejected with relativistic speed as a function of the mass of the star, the masses of both SMBHs, and the pericenter distance. It is possible that the modern kinematic classification for stars with anomalously high spatial velocities will be augmented with a new class—stars with relativistic speeds.

Origin of the moon - Capture by gas drag of the earth's primordial atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakazawa, K.; Komuro, T.; Hayashi, C.

1983-06-01

The novel lunar formation scenario proposed is an extension of planetary formation process studies suggesting that the earth originated in a gaseous solar nebula. Attention is given to a series of dynamical processes in which a low energy planetesimal is trapped within the terrestrial Hill sphere under circumstances in which the primordial atmosphere's gas density gradually decreases. An unbound planetesimal entering the Hill sphere would have had to dissipate its kinetic energy and then come into a bound orbit, before escaping from the Hill sphere, without falling onto the earth's surface. The kinetic energy dissipation condition is considered through the calculation of the solar gravity and atmospheric gas drag effects on the planetesimal's orbital motion. The result obtained shows that a low energy planetesimal of less than lunar mass can be trapped in the Hill sphere with a high probability, if it enters at those stages before atmospheric density has decreased to about 1/50th of the initial value.

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

PubMed

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

The Tortoise and the Hare. Small-Game Use, the Broad-Spectrum Revolution, and Paleolithic Demography.

PubMed

Stiner; Munro; Surovell

2000-02-01

This study illustrates the potential of small-game data for identifying and dating Paleolithic demographic pulses such as those associated with modern human origins and the later evolution of food-producing economies. Archaeofaunal series from Israel and Italy serve as our examples. Three important implications of this study are that (1) early Middle Paleolithic populations were exceptionally small and highly dispersed, (2) the first major population growth pulse in the eastern Mediterranean probably occurred before the end of the Middle Paleolithic, and (3) subsequent demographic pulses in the Upper and Epi-Paleolithic greatly reshaped the conditions of selection that operated on human subsistence ecology, technology, and society. The findings of this study are consistent with the main premise of Flannery's broad-spectrum-revolution hypothesis. However, ranking small prey in terms of work of capture (in the absence of special harvesting tools) proved far more effective in this investigation of human diet breadth than have the taxonomic-diversity analyses published previously.

Observations of Blue Discharges Associated With Negative Narrow Bipolar Events in Active Deep Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Feifan; Zhu, Baoyou; Lu, Gaopeng; Qin, Zilong; Lei, Jiuhou; Peng, Kang-Ming; Chen, Alfred B.; Huang, Anjing; Cummer, Steven A.; Chen, Mingli; Ma, Ming; Lyu, Fanchao; Zhou, Helin

2018-03-01

On 19 August 2012, the Imager of Sprites and Upper Atmospheric Lightning on board the FORMOSAT-2 satellite captured a sequence of seven blue discharges within 1 min that emanated from a parent thunderstorm over Lake Taihu in East China. The analysis of lightning activity produced in the thunderstorm indicates that at least six of these events occurred in association with negative narrow bipolar events (NBEs) that were concurrent with the blue discharge by less than 1 ms, and negative cloud-to-ground occurred within 6 s before each blue discharge, which is in agreement with the modeling presented by Krehbiel et al. (2008). Therefore, the frequent occurrence of negative cloud-to-ground could provide the favorable condition for the production of blue discharges, and negative NBEs are probably the initial event of blue discharges. The detection of negative NBEs might provide a convenient approach to detect the occurrence of blue discharges as lightning bolt shooting upward from the top of energetic thunderstorms.

Hybrid asymptotic-numerical approach for estimating first-passage-time densities of the two-dimensional narrow capture problem.

PubMed

Lindsay, A E; Spoonmore, R T; Tzou, J C

2016-10-01

A hybrid asymptotic-numerical method is presented for obtaining an asymptotic estimate for the full probability distribution of capture times of a random walker by multiple small traps located inside a bounded two-dimensional domain with a reflecting boundary. As motivation for this study, we calculate the variance in the capture time of a random walker by a single interior trap and determine this quantity to be comparable in magnitude to the mean. This implies that the mean is not necessarily reflective of typical capture times and that the full density must be determined. To solve the underlying diffusion equation, the method of Laplace transforms is used to obtain an elliptic problem of modified Helmholtz type. In the limit of vanishing trap sizes, each trap is represented as a Dirac point source that permits the solution of the transform equation to be represented as a superposition of Helmholtz Green's functions. Using this solution, we construct asymptotic short-time solutions of the first-passage-time density, which captures peaks associated with rapid capture by the absorbing traps. When numerical evaluation of the Helmholtz Green's function is employed followed by numerical inversion of the Laplace transform, the method reproduces the density for larger times. We demonstrate the accuracy of our solution technique with a comparison to statistics obtained from a time-dependent solution of the diffusion equation and discrete particle simulations. In particular, we demonstrate that the method is capable of capturing the multimodal behavior in the capture time density that arises when the traps are strategically arranged. The hybrid method presented can be applied to scenarios involving both arbitrary domains and trap shapes.

Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

2018-04-24

Executive SummaryData from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2016 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics.Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2015. Separate analyses were done for each species and also for each subpopulation of LRS. Shortnose suckers and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake.Capture-recapture analyses indicated that with a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both Lost River sucker subpopulations was high (greater than 0.88) from 1999 to 2015. Survival was notably lower for males from the river in 2000, 2006, and 2012, and for the shoreline areas in 2002. From 2001 to 2015, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 64 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 56 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were mostly due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures of fish were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume instead that little or no recruitment occurred for this subpopulation, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation from 2002 to 2015.Shortnose suckers experienced lower and more variable annual survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was relatively low in 2003, 2004, 2010, and 2012. In addition, female survival was low in 1999 and 2000 while male survival was low in 2002. Survival estimate precision in early years of the study; however, are poor. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial from 2001 to 2005. Models indicate that more than 10 percent of the population was new recruits in a number of more recent years. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable from 2006 to 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006 because of the known sampling issue. We also are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in other recent years because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 78 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 77 percent from 2001 to 2015. Decreases in abundance for both sexes are likely greater than these estimates indicate.Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains distressed, especially for SNS. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

[Effects of prefrontal ablations on the reaction of the active choice of feeder under different probability and value of the reinforcement on dog].

PubMed

Preobrazhenskaia, L A; Ioffe, M E; Mats, V N

2004-01-01

The role of the prefrontal cortex was investigated on the reaction of the active choice of the two feeders under changes value and probability reinforcement. The experiments were performed on 2 dogs with prefrontal ablation (g. proreus). Before the lesions the dogs were taught to receive food in two different feeders to conditioned stimuli with equally probable alimentary reinforcement. After ablation in the inter-trial intervals the dogs were running from the one feeder to another. In the answer to conditioned stimuli for many times the dogs choose the same feeder. The disturbance of the behavior after some times completely restored. In the experiments with competition of probability events and values of reinforcement the dogs chose the feeder with low-probability but better quality of reinforcement. In the experiments with equal value but different probability the intact dogs chose the feeder with higher probability. In our experiments the dogs with prefrontal lesions chose the each feeder equiprobably. Thus in condition of free behavior one of different functions of the prefrontal cortex is the reactions choose with more probability of reinforcement.

Return rate, fidelity, and dispersal in a breeding population of flammulated owls (Otus flammeolus)

Treesearch

Brian D. Linkhart; Richard T. Reynolds

2007-01-01

We estimated annual return rate, fidelity, and breeding dispersal in a migratory population of Flammulated Owls (Otus flammeolus) in central Colorado. Return rates, based on capture-recapture histories of 39 males and 52 females from 1981 to 2003, were higher for males (84%) than for females (45%). Annual recapture probability was higher for females...

Scaled Inverse Probability Weighting: A Method to Assess Potential Bias Due to Event Nonreporting in Ecological Momentary Assessment Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Martino, Steven C.; Collins, Rebecca L.; Shadel, William G.; D'Amico, Elizabeth J.; Becker, Kirsten

2018-01-01

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) is a popular assessment method in psychology that aims to capture events, emotions, and cognitions in real time, usually repeatedly throughout the day. Because EMA typically involves more intensive monitoring than traditional assessment methods, missing data are commonly an issue and this missingness may bias…

Effects of amphibian chytrid fungus on individual survival probability in wild boreal toads

Treesearch

David S. Pilliod; Erin Muths; Rick D. Scherer; Paul E. Bartelt; Paul Stephen Corn; Blake R. Hossack; Brad A. Lambert; Rebecca McCaffery; Christopher Gaughan

2010-01-01

Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect...

Microdosimetric Modeling of Biological Effectiveness for Boron Neutron Capture Therapy Considering Intra- and Intercellular Heterogeneity in 10B Distribution.

PubMed

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Masunaga, Shin-Ichiro; Kumada, Hiroaki; Hamada, Nobuyuki

2018-01-17

We here propose a new model for estimating the biological effectiveness for boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) considering intra- and intercellular heterogeneity in 10 B distribution. The new model was developed from our previously established stochastic microdosimetric kinetic model that determines the surviving fraction of cells irradiated with any radiations. In the model, the probability density of the absorbed doses in microscopic scales is the fundamental physical index for characterizing the radiation fields. A new computational method was established to determine the probability density for application to BNCT using the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System PHITS. The parameters used in the model were determined from the measured surviving fraction of tumor cells administrated with two kinds of 10 B compounds. The model quantitatively highlighted the indispensable need to consider the synergetic effect and the dose dependence of the biological effectiveness in the estimate of the therapeutic effect of BNCT. The model can predict the biological effectiveness of newly developed 10 B compounds based on their intra- and intercellular distributions, and thus, it can play important roles not only in treatment planning but also in drug discovery research for future BNCT.

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible

PubMed Central

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated. PMID:26783525

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible.

PubMed

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated.

Animal-Borne Imaging Reveals Novel Insights into the Foraging Behaviors and Diel Activity of a Large-Bodied Apex Predator, the American Alligator (Alligator mississippiensis)

PubMed Central

Nifong, James C.; Nifong, Rachel L.; Silliman, Brian R.; Lowers, Russell H.; Guillette, Louis J.; Ferguson, Jake M.; Welsh, Matthew; Abernathy, Kyler; Marshall, Greg

2014-01-01

Large-bodied, top- and apex predators (e.g., crocodilians, sharks, wolves, killer whales) can exert strong top-down effects within ecological communities through their interactions with prey. Due to inherent difficulties while studying the behavior of these often dangerous predatory species, relatively little is known regarding their feeding behaviors and activity patterns, information that is essential to understanding their role in regulating food web dynamics and ecological processes. Here we use animal-borne imaging systems (Crittercam) to study the foraging behavior and activity patterns of a cryptic, large-bodied predator, the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) in two estuaries of coastal Florida, USA. Using retrieved video data we examine the variation in foraging behaviors and activity patterns due to abiotic factors. We found the frequency of prey-attacks (mean = 0.49 prey attacks/hour) as well as the probability of prey-capture success (mean = 0.52 per attack) were significantly affected by time of day. Alligators attempted to capture prey most frequently during the night. Probability of prey-capture success per attack was highest during morning hours and sequentially lower during day, night, and sunset, respectively. Position in the water column also significantly affected prey-capture success, as individuals’ experienced two-fold greater success when attacking prey while submerged. These estimates are the first for wild adult American alligators and one of the few examples for any crocodilian species worldwide. More broadly, these results reveal that our understandings of crocodilian foraging behaviors are biased due to previous studies containing limited observations of cryptic and nocturnal foraging interactions. Our results can be used to inform greater understanding regarding the top-down effects of American alligators in estuarine food webs. Additionally, our results highlight the importance and power of using animal-borne imaging when studying the behavior of elusive large-bodied, apex predators, as it provides critical insights into their trophic and behavioral interactions. PMID:24454711

Animal-borne imaging reveals novel insights into the foraging behaviors and Diel activity of a large-bodied apex predator, the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

PubMed

Nifong, James C; Nifong, Rachel L; Silliman, Brian R; Lowers, Russell H; Guillette, Louis J; Ferguson, Jake M; Welsh, Matthew; Abernathy, Kyler; Marshall, Greg

2014-01-01

Large-bodied, top- and apex predators (e.g., crocodilians, sharks, wolves, killer whales) can exert strong top-down effects within ecological communities through their interactions with prey. Due to inherent difficulties while studying the behavior of these often dangerous predatory species, relatively little is known regarding their feeding behaviors and activity patterns, information that is essential to understanding their role in regulating food web dynamics and ecological processes. Here we use animal-borne imaging systems (Crittercam) to study the foraging behavior and activity patterns of a cryptic, large-bodied predator, the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) in two estuaries of coastal Florida, USA. Using retrieved video data we examine the variation in foraging behaviors and activity patterns due to abiotic factors. We found the frequency of prey-attacks (mean = 0.49 prey attacks/hour) as well as the probability of prey-capture success (mean = 0.52 per attack) were significantly affected by time of day. Alligators attempted to capture prey most frequently during the night. Probability of prey-capture success per attack was highest during morning hours and sequentially lower during day, night, and sunset, respectively. Position in the water column also significantly affected prey-capture success, as individuals' experienced two-fold greater success when attacking prey while submerged. These estimates are the first for wild adult American alligators and one of the few examples for any crocodilian species worldwide. More broadly, these results reveal that our understandings of crocodilian foraging behaviors are biased due to previous studies containing limited observations of cryptic and nocturnal foraging interactions. Our results can be used to inform greater understanding regarding the top-down effects of American alligators in estuarine food webs. Additionally, our results highlight the importance and power of using animal-borne imaging when studying the behavior of elusive large-bodied, apex predators, as it provides critical insights into their trophic and behavioral interactions.

Correcting length-frequency distributions for imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breton, André R.; Hawkins, John A.; Winkelman, Dana L.

2013-01-01

Sampling gear selects for specific sizes of fish, which may bias length-frequency distributions that are commonly used to assess population size structure, recruitment patterns, growth, and survival. To properly correct for sampling biases caused by gear and other sources, length-frequency distributions need to be corrected for imperfect detection. We describe a method for adjusting length-frequency distributions when capture and recapture probabilities are a function of fish length, temporal variation, and capture history. The method is applied to a study involving the removal of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu by boat electrofishing from a 38.6-km reach on the Yampa River, Colorado. Smallmouth Bass longer than 100 mm were marked and released alive from 2005 to 2010 on one or more electrofishing passes and removed on all other passes from the population. Using the Huggins mark–recapture model, we detected a significant effect of fish total length, previous capture history (behavior), year, pass, year×behavior, and year×pass on capture and recapture probabilities. We demonstrate how to partition the Huggins estimate of abundance into length frequencies to correct for these effects. Uncorrected length frequencies of fish removed from Little Yampa Canyon were negatively biased in every year by as much as 88% relative to mark–recapture estimates for the smallest length-class in our analysis (100–110 mm). Bias declined but remained high even for adult length-classes (≥200 mm). The pattern of bias across length-classes was variable across years. The percentage of unadjusted counts that were below the lower 95% confidence interval from our adjusted length-frequency estimates were 95, 89, 84, 78, 81, and 92% from 2005 to 2010, respectively. Length-frequency distributions are widely used in fisheries science and management. Our simple method for correcting length-frequency estimates for imperfect detection could be widely applied when mark–recapture data are available.

Tilting Uranus without a Collision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogoszinski, Zeeve; Hamilton, Douglas P.

2016-10-01

The most accepted hypothesis for the origin of Uranus' 98° obliquity is a giant collision during the late stages of planetary accretion. This model requires a single Earth mass object striking Uranus at high latitudes; such events occur with a probability of about 10%. Alternatively, Uranus' obliquity may have arisen from a sequence of smaller impactors which lead to a uniform distribution of obliquities. Here we explore a third model for tilting Uranus using secular spin-orbit resonance theory. We investigate early Solar System configurations in which a secular resonance between Uranus' axial precession frequency and another planet's orbital node precession frequency might occur.Thommes et al. (1999) hypothesized that Uranus and Neptune initially formed between Jupiter and Saturn, and were then kicked outward. In our scenario, Neptune leaves first while Uranus remains behind. As an exterior Neptune slowly migrates outward, it picks up both Uranus and Saturn in spin-orbit resonances (Ward and Hamilton 2004; Hamilton and Ward 2004). Only a distant Neptune has a nodal frequency slow enough to resonate with Uranus' axial precession.This scenario, with diverging orbits, results in resonance capture. As Neptune migrates outward its nodal precession slows. While in resonance, Uranus and Saturn each tilt a bit further, slowing their axial precession rates to continually match Neptune's nodal precession rate. Tilting Uranus to high obliquities takes a few 100 Myrs. This timescale may be too long to hold Uranus captive between Jupiter and Saturn, and we are investigating how to reduce it. We also find that resonance capture is rare if Uranus' initial obliquity is greater than about 10°, as the probability of capture decreases as the planet's initial obliquity increases. We will refine this estimate by quantifying capture statistics, and running accretion simulations to test the likelihood of a low early obliquity. Our preliminary findings show that most assumptions about planetary accretion lead to nearly isotropic obliquity distributions for early Uranus. Thus, the odds of Uranus having an initial low obliquity is also about 10%.

Influence of dreissenid mussels on catchability of benthic fishes in bottom trawls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Stapanian, Martin A.

2011-01-01

Inferring trends in true abundance of fish populations from catch per unit effort data requires either the knowledge of capture probability or the assumption that it is constant, both of which are unlikely contingencies. We developed and validated an index of catchability (a proxy measure for capture probability) from a long-term data set describing nearshore waters of western Lake Erie, and we used the index to test the hypothesis that catchability of four abundant benthic species captured in bottom trawls changed after the invasion of dreissenid mussels. We estimated daytime and nighttime catchability for 1972–1990 (predreissenid period) and 1991–2009 (dreissenid period); we then tested for differences between nighttime and daytime catchability in the predreissenid and dreissenid periods and the nighttime–daytime differential in catchability during the dreissenid period. We also tested relationships between Secchi depth and the catchability index via linear regression. Catchability indices for white perch Morone americana, yellow perch Perca flavescens, and trout-perch Percopsis omiscomaycus did not differ between daytime and nighttime during the predreissenid period. After establishment of dreissenids, all three of these species had lower daytime catchability than nighttime catchability and had positive nighttime–daytime differentials, indicating a shift toward higher nighttime catchability relative to daytime catchability. Changes in catchability indices for freshwater drum Aplodinotus grunniens were opposite the changes observed for the other three species, possibly because the freshwater drum is the only species that actively feeds on dreissenids. Catchability indices were negatively related to water clarity (Secchi depth) for three of the species. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that catchability of the four most common benthic fish species captured in bottom trawls within nearshore waters of western Lake Erie changed after the dreissenid invasion because of increased water clarity and increased visibility, which led to greater daytime trawl avoidance.

Previous success and current body condition determine breeding propensity in Lesser Scaup: evidence for the individual heterogeneity hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warren, Jeffrey M.; Cutting, Kyle A.; Takekawa, John Y.; De La Cruz, Susan E. W.; Williams, Tony D.; Koons, David N.

2014-01-01

The decision to breed influences an individual's current and future reproduction, and the proportion of individuals that breed is an important determinant of population dynamics. Age, experience, individual quality, and environmental conditions have all been demonstrated to influence breeding propensity. To elucidate which of these factors exerts the greatest influence on breeding propensity in a temperate waterfowl, we studied female Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) breeding in southwestern Montana. Females were captured during the breeding seasons of 2007–2009, and breeding status was determined on the basis of (1) presence of an egg in the oviduct or (2) blood plasma vitellogenin (VTG) levels. Presence on the study site in the previous year, a proxy for adult female success, was determined with stable isotope signatures of a primary feather collected at capture. Overall, 57% of females had evidence of breeding at the time of capture; this increased to 86% for females captured on or after peak nest initiation. Capture date and size-adjusted body condition positively influenced breeding propensity, with a declining body-condition threshold through the breeding season. We did not detect an influence of age on breeding propensity. Drought conditions negatively affected breeding propensity, reducing the proportion of breeding females to 0.85 (SE = 0.05) from 0.94 (SE = 0.03) during normal-water years. A female that was present in the previous breeding season was 5% more likely to breed than a female that was not present then. The positive correlation between age and experience makes it difficult to differentiate the roles of age, experience, and individual quality in reproductive success in vertebrates. Our results indicate that individual quality, as expressed by previous success and current body condition, may be among the most important determinants of breeding propensity in female Lesser Scaup, providing further support for the individual heterogeneity hypothesis.

Quantum probabilistic logic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balu, Radhakrishnan

2015-05-01

We describe a quantum mechanics based logic programming language that supports Horn clauses, random variables, and covariance matrices to express and solve problems in probabilistic logic. The Horn clauses of the language wrap random variables, including infinite valued, to express probability distributions and statistical correlations, a powerful feature to capture relationship between distributions that are not independent. The expressive power of the language is based on a mechanism to implement statistical ensembles and to solve the underlying SAT instances using quantum mechanical machinery. We exploit the fact that classical random variables have quantum decompositions to build the Horn clauses. We establish the semantics of the language in a rigorous fashion by considering an existing probabilistic logic language called PRISM with classical probability measures defined on the Herbrand base and extending it to the quantum context. In the classical case H-interpretations form the sample space and probability measures defined on them lead to consistent definition of probabilities for well formed formulae. In the quantum counterpart, we define probability amplitudes on Hinterpretations facilitating the model generations and verifications via quantum mechanical superpositions and entanglements. We cast the well formed formulae of the language as quantum mechanical observables thus providing an elegant interpretation for their probabilities. We discuss several examples to combine statistical ensembles and predicates of first order logic to reason with situations involving uncertainty.

Using liquid desiccant as a regenerable filter for capturing and deactivating contaminants

DOEpatents

Slayzak, Steven J.; Anderson, Ren S.; Judkoff, Ronald D.; Blake, Daniel M.; Vinzant, Todd B.; Ryan, Joseph P.

2007-12-11

A method, and systems for implementing such method, for purifying and conditioning air of weaponized contaminants. The method includes wetting a filter packing media with a salt-based liquid desiccant, such as water with a high concentration of lithium chloride. Air is passed through the wetted filter packing media and the contaminants in are captured with the liquid desiccant while the liquid desiccant dehumidifies the air. The captured contaminants are then deactivated in the liquid desiccant, which may include heating the liquid desiccant. The liquid desiccant is regenerated by applying heat to the liquid desiccant and then removing moisture. The method includes repeating the wetting with the regenerated liquid desiccant which provides a regenerable filtering process that captures and deactivates contaminants on an ongoing basis while also conditioning the air. The method may include filtration effectiveness enhancement by electrostatic or inertial means.

How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

2017-03-01

Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring the importance of quantum effects in nucleation: The archetypical Nen case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unn-Toc, Wesley; Halberstadt, Nadine; Meier, Christoph; Mella, Massimo

2012-07-01

The effect of quantum mechanics (QM) on the details of the nucleation process is explored employing Ne clusters as test cases due to their semi-quantal nature. In particular, we investigate the impact of quantum mechanics on both condensation and dissociation rates in the framework of the microcanonical ensemble. Using both classical trajectories and two semi-quantal approaches (zero point averaged dynamics, ZPAD, and Gaussian-based time dependent Hartree, G-TDH) to model cluster and collision dynamics, we simulate the dissociation and monomer capture for Ne8 as a function of the cluster internal energy, impact parameter and collision speed. The results for the capture probability Ps(b) as a function of the impact parameter suggest that classical trajectories always underestimate capture probabilities with respect to ZPAD, albeit at most by 15%-20% in the cases we studied. They also do so in some important situations when using G-TDH. More interestingly, dissociation rates kdiss are grossly overestimated by classical mechanics, at least by one order of magnitude. We interpret both behaviours as mainly due to the reduced amount of kinetic energy available to a quantum cluster for a chosen total internal energy. We also find that the decrease in monomer dissociation energy due to zero point energy effects plays a key role in defining dissociation rates. In fact, semi-quantal and classical results for kdiss seem to follow a common "corresponding states" behaviour when the proper definition of internal and dissociation energies are used in a transition state model estimation of the evaporation rate constants.

TILTING JUPITER (A BIT) AND SATURN (A LOT) DURING PLANETARY MIGRATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vokrouhlický, David; Nesvorný, David, E-mail: vokrouhl@cesnet.cz, E-mail: davidn@boulder.swri.edu

We study the effects of planetary late migration on the gas giants’ obliquities. We consider the planetary instability models from Nesvorný and Morbidelli, in which the obliquities of Jupiter and Saturn can be excited when spin–orbit resonances occur. The most notable resonances occur when the s{sub 7} and s{sub 8} frequencies, changing as a result of planetary migration, become commensurate with the precession frequencies of Jupiter’s and Saturn’s spin vectors. We show that Jupiter may have obtained its present obliquity by crossing of the s{sub 8} resonance. This would set strict constraints on the character of migration during the earlymore » stage. Additional effects on Jupiter’s obliquity are expected during the last gasp of migration when the s{sub 7} resonance was approached. The magnitude of these effects depends on the precise value of the Jupiter’s precession constant. Saturn’s large obliquity was likely excited by capture into the s{sub 8} resonance. This probably happened during the late stage of planetary migration when the evolution of the s{sub 8} frequency was very slow, and the conditions for capture into the spin–orbit resonance with s{sub 8} were satisfied. However, whether or not Saturn is in the spin–orbit resonance with s{sub 8} at the present time is not clear because the existing observations of Saturn’s spin precession and internal structure models have significant uncertainties.« less

Contribution of manipulable and non-manipulable environmental factors to trapping efficiency of invasive sea lamprey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dawson, Heather A.; Bravener, Gale; Beaulaurier, Joshua; Johnson, Nicholas S.; Twohey, Michael; McLaughlin, Robert L.; Brenden, Travis O.

2017-01-01

We identified aspects of the trapping process that afforded opportunities for improving trap efficiency of invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in a Great Lake's tributary. Capturing a sea lamprey requires it to encounter the trap, enter, and be retained until removed. Probabilities of these events depend on the interplay between sea lamprey behavior, environmental conditions, and trap design. We first tested how strongly seasonal patterns in daily trap catches (a measure of trapping success) were related to nightly rates of trap encounter, entry, and retention (outcomes of sea lamprey behavior). We then tested the degree to which variation in rates of trap encounter, entry, and retention were related to environmental features that control agents can manipulate (attractant pheromone addition, discharge) and features agents cannot manipulate (water temperature, season), but could be used as indicators for when to increase trapping effort. Daily trap catch was most strongly associated with rate of encounter. Relative and absolute measures of predictive strength for environmental factors that managers could potentially manipulate were low, suggesting that opportunities to improve trapping success by manipulating factors that affect rates of encounter, entry, and retention are limited. According to results at this trap, more sea lamprey would be captured by increasing trapping effort early in the season when sea lamprey encounter rates with traps are high. The approach used in this study could be applied to trapping of other invasive or valued species.

A dynamic programming approach to estimate the capacity value of energy storage

DOE PAGES

Sioshansi, Ramteen; Madaeni, Seyed Hossein; Denholm, Paul

2013-09-17

Here, we present a method to estimate the capacity value of storage. Our method uses a dynamic program to model the effect of power system outages on the operation and state of charge of storage in subsequent periods. We combine the optimized dispatch from the dynamic program with estimated system loss of load probabilities to compute a probability distribution for the state of charge of storage in each period. This probability distribution can be used as a forced outage rate for storage in standard reliability-based capacity value estimation methods. Our proposed method has the advantage over existing approximations that itmore » explicitly captures the effect of system shortage events on the state of charge of storage in subsequent periods. We also use a numerical case study, based on five utility systems in the U.S., to demonstrate our technique and compare it to existing approximation methods.« less

Exact and Approximate Probabilistic Symbolic Execution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luckow, Kasper; Pasareanu, Corina S.; Dwyer, Matthew B.; Filieri, Antonio; Visser, Willem

2014-01-01

Probabilistic software analysis seeks to quantify the likelihood of reaching a target event under uncertain environments. Recent approaches compute probabilities of execution paths using symbolic execution, but do not support nondeterminism. Nondeterminism arises naturally when no suitable probabilistic model can capture a program behavior, e.g., for multithreading or distributed systems. In this work, we propose a technique, based on symbolic execution, to synthesize schedulers that resolve nondeterminism to maximize the probability of reaching a target event. To scale to large systems, we also introduce approximate algorithms to search for good schedulers, speeding up established random sampling and reinforcement learning results through the quantification of path probabilities based on symbolic execution. We implemented the techniques in Symbolic PathFinder and evaluated them on nondeterministic Java programs. We show that our algorithms significantly improve upon a state-of- the-art statistical model checking algorithm, originally developed for Markov Decision Processes.

A Strategic Interaction Model of Punishment Favoring Contagion of Honest Behavior

PubMed Central

Cremene, Marcel; Dumitrescu, D.; Cremene, Ligia

2014-01-01

The punishment effect on social behavior is analyzed within the strategic interaction framework of Cellular Automata and computational Evolutionary Game Theory. A new game, called Social Honesty (SH), is proposed. The SH game is analyzed in spatial configurations. Probabilistic punishment is used as a dishonesty deterrence mechanism. In order to capture the intrinsic uncertainty of social environments, payoffs are described as random variables. New dynamics, with a new relation between punishment probability and punishment severity, are revealed. Punishment probability proves to be more important than punishment severity in guiding convergence towards honesty as predominant behavior. This result is confirmed by empirical evidence and reported experiments. Critical values and transition intervals for punishment probability and severity are identified and analyzed. Clusters of honest or dishonest players emerge spontaneously from the very first rounds of interaction and are determinant for the future dynamics and outcomes. PMID:24489917

Encounter risk analysis of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration in the irrigation district

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jinping; Lin, Xiaomin; Zhao, Yong; Hong, Yang

2017-09-01

Rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are random but mutually affected variables in the irrigation district, and their encounter situation can determine water shortage risks under the contexts of natural water supply and demand. However, in reality, the rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration may have different marginal distributions and their relations are nonlinear. In this study, based on the annual rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration data series from 1970 to 2013 in the Luhun irrigation district of China, the joint probability distribution of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are developed with the Frank copula function. Using the joint probability distribution, the synchronous-asynchronous encounter risk, conditional joint probability, and conditional return period of different combinations of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results show that the copula-based joint probability distributions of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are reasonable. The asynchronous encounter probability of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration is greater than their synchronous encounter probability, and the water shortage risk associated with meteorological drought (i.e. rainfall variability) is more prone to appear. Compared with other states, there are higher conditional joint probability and lower conditional return period in either low rainfall or high reference crop evapotranspiration. For a specifically high reference crop evapotranspiration with a certain frequency, the encounter risk of low rainfall and high reference crop evapotranspiration is increased with the decrease in frequency. For a specifically low rainfall with a certain frequency, the encounter risk of low rainfall and high reference crop evapotranspiration is decreased with the decrease in frequency. When either the high reference crop evapotranspiration exceeds a certain frequency or low rainfall does not exceed a certain frequency, the higher conditional joint probability and lower conditional return period of various combinations likely cause a water shortage, but the water shortage is not severe.

Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Soil Heterogeneity around Landmines in Natural Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallen, B.; Smits, K. M.; Howington, S. E.

2015-12-01

The environment in which landmines are placed is oftentimes highly heterogeneous. These heterogeneities such as differences in soil type, packing and moisture, combined with changes in surface and climate conditions can oftentimes mask the presence of the mine. Understanding the impact of heterogeneity on heat and mass transfer behavior in the vicinity of landmines is paramount to properly identifying landmine locations for demining operations. This study investigates the impact of soil heterogeneity on soil moisture and temperature distributions around buried objects with the goal of increasing our ability to model and predict the environmental conditions that are most dynamic to mine detection performance. A ten-day field experiment was conducted in which two anti-personnel landmines at different depths and a limestone block of comparable size were buried. The site was instrumented with a series of sensors, monitoring atmospheric, surface and subsurface conditions to include measurements of soil moisture, soil and air temperature, relative humidity, vapor concentration, and meteorological conditions such as wind speed and net radiation. Infrared thermal imaging was used to provide continuous profiles of surface temperature conditions. The soil was well characterized in the laboratory to provide good understanding of field conditions for numerical modeling efforts. Experimental results demonstrate the strongest thermal contrast between shallow landmine emplacement and the surrounding soil occurring as the sun approaches its zenith and two hours after sunset until the sun directly impacts the soil above the landmine. A finite-element model of fluid flow and heat transport through porous media is compared against experimental observations, capturing the diurnal variation. A validated model, like this one, offers the opportunity to improve landmine detection probabilities and reduce false alarms caused by environmental variability.

Imidazolium salt-modified porous hypercrosslinked polymers for synergistic CO2 capture and conversion.

PubMed

Wang, Jinquan; Sng, Waihong; Yi, Guangshun; Zhang, Yugen

2015-08-04

A new type of imidazolium salt-modified porous hypercrosslinked polymer (BET surface area up to 926 m(2) g(-1)) was reported. These porous materials exhibited good CO2 capture capacities (14.5 wt%) and catalytic activities for the conversion of CO2 into various cyclic carbonates under metal-free conditions. The synergistic effect of CO2 capture and conversion was observed.

Attentional capture decreases when distractors remain visible during rapid serial visual presentations.

PubMed

Inukai, Tomoe; Kumada, Takatsune; Kawahara, Jun-ichiro

2010-05-01

The identification of a central visual target is impaired by the onset of a peripheral distractor. This impairment is said to occur because attentional focus is diverted to the peripheral distractor. We examined whether distractor offset would enhance or reduce attentional capture by manipulating the duration of the distractor. Observers identified a color singleton among a rapid stream of homogeneous nontargets. Peripheral distractors disappeared 43 or 172 msec after onset (the short- and long-duration conditions, respectively). Identification accuracy was greater in the long-duration condition than in the short-duration condition. The same pattern of results was obtained when participants identified a target of a designated color among heterogeneous nontargets when the color of the distractor was the same as that of the target. These findings suggest that attentional capture consists of stimulus onset and offset, both of which are susceptible to top-down attentional set.

Relationship between body condition of American alligators and water depth in the Everglades, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fujisaki, Ikuko; Rice, Kenneth G.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2009-01-01

Feeding opportunities of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in freshwater wetlands in south Florida are closely linked to hydrologic conditions. In the Everglades, seasonally and annually fluctuating surface water levels affect populations of aquatic organisms that alligators consume. Since prey becomes more concentrated when water depth decreases, we hypothesized an inverse relationship between body condition and water depth in the Everglades. On average, condition of adult alligators in the dry season was significantly higher than in the wet season, but this was not the case for juveniles/subadults. The correlation between body condition and measured water depth at capture locations was weak; however, there was a significant negative correlation between the condition and predicted water depth prior to capture for all animals except for spring juveniles/subadults which had a weak positive condition-water depth relationship. Overall, a relatively strong inverse correlation occurred at 10-49 days prior to the capture day, suggesting that current body condition of alligators may depend on feeding opportunities during that period. Fitted regression of body condition on water depth (mean depth of 10 days when condition-water depth correlation was greatest) resulted in a significantly negative slope, except for spring adult females and spring juveniles/subadults for which slopes were not significantly different from zero. Our results imply that water management practices may be critical for alligators in the Everglades since water depth can affect animal condition in a relatively short period of time.

Carryover effects associated with winter location affect fitness, social status, and population dynamics in a long-distance migrant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Schamber, Jason L.; Ward, David H.; Nicolai, Christopher A.; Conant, Bruce

2011-01-01

We used observations of individually marked female black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) at three wintering lagoons on the Pacific coast of Baja California—Laguna San Ignacio (LSI), Laguna Ojo de Liebre (LOL), and Bahía San Quintín (BSQ)—and the Tutakoke River breeding colony in Alaska to assess hypotheses about carryover effects on breeding and distribution of individuals among wintering areas. We estimated transition probabilities from wintering locations to breeding and nonbreeding by using multistratum robust-design capture-mark-recapture models. We also examined the effect of breeding on migration to wintering areas to assess the hypothesis that individuals in family groups occupied higher-quality wintering locations. We used 4,538 unique female brant in our analysis of the relationship between winter location and breeding probability. All competitive models of breeding probability contained additive effects of wintering location and the 1997–1998 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on probability of breeding. Probability of breeding in non-ENSO years was 0.98 ± 0.02, 0.68 ± 0.04, and 0.91 ± 0.11 for females wintering at BSQ, LOL, and LSI, respectively. After the 1997–1998 ENSO event, breeding probability was between 2% (BSQ) and 38% (LOL) lower than in other years. Individuals that bred had the highest probability of migrating the next fall to the wintering area producing the highest probability of breeding.

Adhesion enhancement of cribellate capture threads by epicuticular waxes of the insect prey sheds new light on spider web evolution

PubMed Central

Bott, Raya A.; Bräunig, Peter

2017-01-01

To survive, web-building spiders rely on their capture threads to restrain prey. Many species use special adhesives for this task, and again the majority of those species cover their threads with viscoelastic glue droplets. Cribellate spiders, by contrast, use a wool of nanofibres as adhesive. Previous studies hypothesized that prey is restrained by van der Waals' forces and entrapment in the nanofibres. A large discrepancy when comparing the adhesive force on artificial surfaces versus prey implied that the real mechanism was still elusive. We observed that insect prey's epicuticular waxes infiltrate the wool of nanofibres, probably induced by capillary forces. The fibre-reinforced composite thus formed led to an adhesion between prey and thread eight times stronger than that between thread and wax-free surfaces. Thus, cribellate spiders employ the originally protective coating of their insect prey as a fatal component of their adhesive and the insect promotes its own capture. We suggest an evolutionary arms race with prey changing the properties of their cuticular waxes to escape the cribellate capture threads that eventually favoured spider threads with viscous glue. PMID:28566485

Modeling misidentification errors in capture-recapture studies using photographic identification of evolving marks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yoshizaki, J.; Pollock, K.H.; Brownie, C.; Webster, R.A.

2009-01-01

Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) are used to identify individual animals in a capture-recapture study. Photographic identification (photoID) typically uses photographic images of animals' naturally existing features as tags (photographic tags) and is subject to two main causes of identification errors: those related to quality of photographs (non-evolving natural tags) and those related to changes in natural marks (evolving natural tags). The conventional methods for analysis of capture-recapture data do not account for identification errors, and to do so requires a detailed understanding of the misidentification mechanism. Focusing on the situation where errors are due to evolving natural tags, we propose a misidentification mechanism and outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies. We introduce methods for estimating population size based on this model. Using a simulation study, we show that conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored, and that, in comparison, our new estimators have better properties except in cases with low capture probabilities (<0.2) or low misidentification rates (<2.5%). ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

The Environmental Protection Agency in the Early Trump Administration: Prelude to Regulatory Capture.

PubMed

Dillon, Lindsey; Sellers, Christopher; Underhill, Vivian; Shapiro, Nicholas; Ohayon, Jennifer Liss; Sullivan, Marianne; Brown, Phil; Harrison, Jill; Wylie, Sara

2018-04-01

We explore and contextualize changes at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) over the first 6 months of the Trump administration, arguing that its pro-business direction is enabling a form of regulatory capture. We draw on news articles, public documents, and a rapid response, multisited interview study of current and retired EPA employees to (1) document changes associated with the new administration, (2) contextualize and compare the current pro-business makeover with previous ones, and (3) publicly convey findings in a timely manner. The lengthy, combined experience of interviewees with previous Republican and Democratic administrations made them valuable analysts for assessing recent shifts at the Scott Pruitt-led EPA and the extent to which these shifts steer the EPA away from its stated mission to "protect human and environmental health." Considering the extent of its pro-business leanings in the absence of mitigating power from the legislative branch, we conclude that its regulatory capture has become likely-more so than at similar moments in the agency's 47-year history. The public and environmental health consequences of regulatory capture of the EPA will probably be severe and far-reaching.

The Environmental Protection Agency in the Early Trump Administration: Prelude to Regulatory Capture

PubMed Central

Sellers, Christopher; Underhill, Vivian; Shapiro, Nicholas; Ohayon, Jennifer Liss; Sullivan, Marianne; Brown, Phil; Harrison, Jill; Wylie, Sara

2018-01-01

We explore and contextualize changes at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) over the first 6 months of the Trump administration, arguing that its pro-business direction is enabling a form of regulatory capture. We draw on news articles, public documents, and a rapid response, multisited interview study of current and retired EPA employees to (1) document changes associated with the new administration, (2) contextualize and compare the current pro-business makeover with previous ones, and (3) publicly convey findings in a timely manner. The lengthy, combined experience of interviewees with previous Republican and Democratic administrations made them valuable analysts for assessing recent shifts at the Scott Pruitt–led EPA and the extent to which these shifts steer the EPA away from its stated mission to “protect human and environmental health.” Considering the extent of its pro-business leanings in the absence of mitigating power from the legislative branch, we conclude that its regulatory capture has become likely—more so than at similar moments in the agency’s 47-year history. The public and environmental health consequences of regulatory capture of the EPA will probably be severe and far-reaching. PMID:29698086

Estimation of tiger densities in India using photographic captures and recaptures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, U.; Nichols, J.D.

1998-01-01

Previously applied methods for estimating tiger (Panthera tigris) abundance using total counts based on tracks have proved unreliable. In this paper we use a field method proposed by Karanth (1995), combining camera-trap photography to identify individual tigers based on stripe patterns, with capture-recapture estimators. We developed a sampling design for camera-trapping and used the approach to estimate tiger population size and density in four representative tiger habitats in different parts of India. The field method worked well and provided data suitable for analysis using closed capture-recapture models. The results suggest the potential for applying this methodology for estimating abundances, survival rates and other population parameters in tigers and other low density, secretive animal species with distinctive coat patterns or other external markings. Estimated probabilities of photo-capturing tigers present in the study sites ranged from 0.75 - 1.00. The estimated mean tiger densities ranged from 4.1 (SE hat= 1.31) to 11.7 (SE hat= 1.93) tigers/100 km2. The results support the previous suggestions of Karanth and Sunquist (1995) that densities of tigers and other large felids may be primarily determined by prey community structure at a given site.

Particle tracing modeling of ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit

DOE PAGES

Brito, Thiago V.; Woodroffe, Jesse; Jordanova, Vania K.; ...

2017-10-31

The initial results of a coupled MHD/particle tracing method to evaluate particle fluxes in the inner magnetosphere are presented. This setup is capable of capturing the earthward particle acceleration process resulting from dipolarization events in the tail region of the magnetosphere. On the period of study, the MHD code was able to capture a dipolarization event and the particle tracing algorithm was able to capture our results of these disturbances and calculate proton fluxes in the night side geosynchronous orbit region. The simulation captured dispersionless injections as well as the energy dispersion signatures that are frequently observed by satellites atmore » geosynchronous orbit. Currently, ring current models rely on Maxwellian-type distributions based on either empirical flux values or sparse satellite data for their boundary conditions close to geosynchronous orbit. In spite of some differences in intensity and timing, the setup presented here is able to capture substorm injections, which represents an improvement regarding a reverse way of coupling these ring current models with MHD codes through the use of boundary conditions.« less

Particle tracing modeling of ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brito, Thiago V.; Woodroffe, Jesse; Jordanova, Vania K.

The initial results of a coupled MHD/particle tracing method to evaluate particle fluxes in the inner magnetosphere are presented. This setup is capable of capturing the earthward particle acceleration process resulting from dipolarization events in the tail region of the magnetosphere. On the period of study, the MHD code was able to capture a dipolarization event and the particle tracing algorithm was able to capture our results of these disturbances and calculate proton fluxes in the night side geosynchronous orbit region. The simulation captured dispersionless injections as well as the energy dispersion signatures that are frequently observed by satellites atmore » geosynchronous orbit. Currently, ring current models rely on Maxwellian-type distributions based on either empirical flux values or sparse satellite data for their boundary conditions close to geosynchronous orbit. In spite of some differences in intensity and timing, the setup presented here is able to capture substorm injections, which represents an improvement regarding a reverse way of coupling these ring current models with MHD codes through the use of boundary conditions.« less

Application of acoustic agglomeration to enhance air filtration efficiency in air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation (ACMV) systems.

PubMed

Ng, Bing Feng; Xiong, Jin Wen; Wan, Man Pun

2017-01-01

The recent episodes of haze in Southeast Asia have caused some of the worst regional atmospheric pollution ever recorded in history. In order to control the levels of airborne fine particulate matters (PM) indoors, filtration systems providing high PM capturing efficiency are often sought, which inadvertently also results in high airflow resistance (or pressure drop) that increases the energy consumption for air distribution. A pre-conditioning mechanism promoting the formation of particle clusters to enhance PM capturing efficiency without adding flow resistance in the air distribution ductwork could provide an energy-efficient solution. This pre-conditioning mechanism can be fulfilled by acoustic agglomeration, which is a phenomenon that promotes the coagulation of suspended particles by acoustic waves propagating in the fluid medium. This paper discusses the basic mechanisms of acoustic agglomeration along with influencing factors that could affect the agglomeration efficiency. The feasibility to apply acoustic agglomeration to improve filtration in air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation (ACMV) systems is investigated experimentally in a small-scale wind tunnel. Experimental results indicate that this novel application of acoustic pre-conditioning improves the PM2.5 filtration efficiency of the test filters by up to 10% without introducing additional pressure drop. The fan energy savings from not having to switch to a high capturing efficiency filter largely outstrip the additional energy consumed by the acoustics system. This, as a whole, demonstrates potential energy savings from the combined acoustic-enhanced filtration system without compromising on PM capturing efficiency.

Application of acoustic agglomeration to enhance air filtration efficiency in air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation (ACMV) systems

PubMed Central

Xiong, Jin Wen; Wan, Man Pun

2017-01-01

The recent episodes of haze in Southeast Asia have caused some of the worst regional atmospheric pollution ever recorded in history. In order to control the levels of airborne fine particulate matters (PM) indoors, filtration systems providing high PM capturing efficiency are often sought, which inadvertently also results in high airflow resistance (or pressure drop) that increases the energy consumption for air distribution. A pre-conditioning mechanism promoting the formation of particle clusters to enhance PM capturing efficiency without adding flow resistance in the air distribution ductwork could provide an energy-efficient solution. This pre-conditioning mechanism can be fulfilled by acoustic agglomeration, which is a phenomenon that promotes the coagulation of suspended particles by acoustic waves propagating in the fluid medium. This paper discusses the basic mechanisms of acoustic agglomeration along with influencing factors that could affect the agglomeration efficiency. The feasibility to apply acoustic agglomeration to improve filtration in air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation (ACMV) systems is investigated experimentally in a small-scale wind tunnel. Experimental results indicate that this novel application of acoustic pre-conditioning improves the PM2.5 filtration efficiency of the test filters by up to 10% without introducing additional pressure drop. The fan energy savings from not having to switch to a high capturing efficiency filter largely outstrip the additional energy consumed by the acoustics system. This, as a whole, demonstrates potential energy savings from the combined acoustic-enhanced filtration system without compromising on PM capturing efficiency. PMID:28594862

Determination of the mass of globular cluster X-ray sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grindlay, J. E.; Hertz, P.; Steiner, J. E.; Murray, S. S.; Lightman, A. P.

1984-01-01

The precise positions of the luminous X-ray sources in eight globular clusters have been measured with the Einstein X-Ray Observatory. When combined with similarly precise measurements of the dynamical centers and core radii of the globular clusters, the distribution of the X-ray source mass is determined to be in the range 0.9-1.9 solar mass. The X-ray source positions and the detailed optical studies indicate that (1) the sources are probably all of similar mass, (2) the gravitational potentials in these high-central density clusters are relatively smooth and isothermal, and (3) the X-ray sources are compact binaries and are probably formed by tidal capture.

Spatial and temporal variation of life-history traits documented using capture-mark-recapture methods in the vector snail Bulinus truncatus.

PubMed

Chlyeh, G; Henry, P Y; Jarne, P

2003-09-01

The population biology of the schistosome-vector snail Bulinus truncatus was studied in an irrigation area near Marrakech, Morocco, using demographic approaches, in order to estimate life-history parameters. The survey was conducted using 2 capture-mark-recapture analyses in 2 separate sites from the irrigation area, the first one in 1999 and the second one in 2000. Individuals larger than 5 mm were considered. The capture probability varied through time and space in both analyses. Apparent survival (from 0.7 to 1 per period of 2-3 days) varied with time and space (a series of sinks was considered), as well as a square function of size. These results suggest variation in population intrinsic rate of increase. They also suggest that results from more classical analyses of population demography, aiming, for example at estimating population size, should be interpreted with caution. Together with other results obtained in the same irrigation area, they also lead to some suggestions for population control.

Revisiting Zirconium: New Abundance Determinations with Improved Oscillator Strengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burris, Debra L.; Jones, M.; Nichols, R.

2006-12-01

The element Zirconium is produced via neutron capture (n-capture). It resides in the mass range where there is uncertainty about the production mechanism at early time. The rapid n-capture process (r-process) was believed to be responsible for the production, but no study (Burris et al 2000, Gilroy et al 1988 and others) has been able to successfully use the r-process to reproduce the abundance signature for elements in this mass range for metal-poor halo stars. It has been suggested (Sneden and Cowan 2003) that there may be an undiscovered component to the r-process. New transition probabilities for Zr II have been reported by Malcheva et al (2006). We utilize these values to make new abundance determinations for Zr in the Sun and the metal-poor halo star BD +17 3248. This work is supported in part by the AAS Small Grant Program, the Arkansas Space Grant Consortium and the UCA Undergraduate Research Council.

Taking Another Look: Zr and Y abundances in Halo Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burris, Debra L.; Jones, E.

2007-12-01

The elements Zirconium and Yttrium are produced via neutron capture (n-capture). These elements reside in the mass range where there is uncertainty about the production mechanism at early time. The rapid n-capture process (r-process) was believed to be responsible for the production, but no study (Burris et al 2000, Gilroy et al 1988 and others) has been able to successfully use the r-process to reproduce the abundance signature for elements in this mass range for metal-poor halo stars. It has been suggested (Sneden and Cowan 2003) that there may be an undiscovered component to the r-process. New abundance calculations for these elements have been conducted for a sample of metal-poor halo stars. Transition probabilities for Zr II from Malcheva et al (2006) and for YII from Hannaford et al (1982) were utilized in these calculations. This work is supported in part by the AAS Small Grant Program, the Arkansas Space Grant Consortium and the UCA Undergraduate Research Council.