[Conditional probability analysis between tinnitus and comorbidities in patients attending the National Rehabilitation Institute-LGII in the period 2012-2013].

PubMed

Gómez Toledo, Verónica; Gutiérrez Farfán, Ileana; Verduzco-Mendoza, Antonio; Arch-Tirado, Emilio

Tinnitus is defined as the conscious perception of a sensation of sound that occurs in the absence of an external stimulus. This audiological symptom affects 7% to 19% of the adult population. The aim of this study is to describe the associated comorbidities present in patients with tinnitus usingjoint and conditional probability analysis. Patients of both genders, diagnosed with unilateral or bilateral tinnitus, aged between 20 and 45 years, and had a full computerised medical record, were selected. Study groups were formed on the basis of the following clinical aspects: 1) audiological findings; 2) vestibular findings; 3) comorbidities such as, temporomandibular dysfunction, tubal dysfunction, otosclerosis and, 4) triggering factors of tinnitus noise exposure, respiratory tract infection, use of ototoxic and/or drugs. Of the patients with tinnitus, 27 (65%) reported hearing loss, 11 (26.19%) temporomandibular dysfunction, and 11 (26.19%) with vestibular disorders. When performing the joint probability analysis, it was found that the probability that a patient with tinnitus having hearing loss was 2742 0.65, and 2042 0.47 for bilateral type. The result for P (A ∩ B)=30%. Bayes' theorem P (AiB) = P(Ai∩B)P(B) was used, and various probabilities were calculated. Therefore, in patients with temporomandibulardysfunction and vestibular disorders, a posterior probability of P (Aі/B)=31.44% was calculated. Consideration should be given to the joint and conditional probability approach as tools for the study of different pathologies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Ratio-of-Mediator-Probability Weighting for Causal Mediation Analysis in the Presence of Treatment-by-Mediator Interaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Guanglei; Deutsch, Jonah; Hill, Heather D.

2015-01-01

Conventional methods for mediation analysis generate biased results when the mediator-outcome relationship depends on the treatment condition. This article shows how the ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting (RMPW) method can be used to decompose total effects into natural direct and indirect effects in the presence of treatment-by-mediator…

Ratio-of-Mediator-Probability Weighting for Causal Mediation Analysis in the Presence of Treatment-by-Mediator Interaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Guanglei; Deutsch, Jonah; Hill, Heather D.

2015-01-01

Conventional methods for mediation analysis generate biased results when the mediator--outcome relationship depends on the treatment condition. This article shows how the ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting (RMPW) method can be used to decompose total effects into natural direct and indirect effects in the presence of treatment-by-mediator…

CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Exploratory Data Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Intro to exploratory data analysis. Overview of variable distributions, scatter plots, correlation analysis, GIS datasets. Use of conditional probability to examine stressor levels and impairment. Exploring correlations among multiple stressors.

Relative contributions of three descriptive methods: implications for behavioral assessment.

PubMed

Pence, Sacha T; Roscoe, Eileen M; Bourret, Jason C; Ahearn, William H

2009-01-01

This study compared the outcomes of three descriptive analysis methods-the ABC method, the conditional probability method, and the conditional and background probability method-to each other and to the results obtained from functional analyses. Six individuals who had been diagnosed with developmental delays and exhibited problem behavior participated. Functional analyses indicated that participants' problem behavior was maintained by social positive reinforcement (n = 2), social negative reinforcement (n = 2), or automatic reinforcement (n = 2). Results showed that for all but 1 participant, descriptive analysis outcomes were similar across methods. In addition, for all but 1 participant, the descriptive analysis outcome differed substantially from the functional analysis outcome. This supports the general finding that descriptive analysis is a poor means of determining functional relations.

Technology-Enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like "What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed?" This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as "What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that…

RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF THREE DESCRIPTIVE METHODS: IMPLICATIONS FOR BEHAVIORAL ASSESSMENT

PubMed Central

Pence, Sacha T; Roscoe, Eileen M; Bourret, Jason C; Ahearn, William H

2009-01-01

This study compared the outcomes of three descriptive analysis methods—the ABC method, the conditional probability method, and the conditional and background probability method—to each other and to the results obtained from functional analyses. Six individuals who had been diagnosed with developmental delays and exhibited problem behavior participated. Functional analyses indicated that participants' problem behavior was maintained by social positive reinforcement (n  =  2), social negative reinforcement (n  =  2), or automatic reinforcement (n  =  2). Results showed that for all but 1 participant, descriptive analysis outcomes were similar across methods. In addition, for all but 1 participant, the descriptive analysis outcome differed substantially from the functional analysis outcome. This supports the general finding that descriptive analysis is a poor means of determining functional relations. PMID:19949536

Bayesian probability analysis: a prospective demonstration of its clinical utility in diagnosing coronary disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Detrano, R.; Yiannikas, J.; Salcedo, E.E.

One hundred fifty-four patients referred for coronary arteriography were prospectively studied with stress electrocardiography, stress thallium scintigraphy, cine fluoroscopy (for coronary calcifications), and coronary angiography. Pretest probabilities of coronary disease were determined based on age, sex, and type of chest pain. These and pooled literature values for the conditional probabilities of test results based on disease state were used in Bayes theorem to calculate posttest probabilities of disease. The results of the three noninvasive tests were compared for statistical independence, a necessary condition for their simultaneous use in Bayes theorem. The test results were found to demonstrate pairwise independence inmore » patients with and those without disease. Some dependencies that were observed between the test results and the clinical variables of age and sex were not sufficient to invalidate application of the theorem. Sixty-eight of the study patients had at least one major coronary artery obstruction of greater than 50%. When these patients were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-probability subgroups according to their pretest probabilities, noninvasive test results analyzed by Bayesian probability analysis appropriately advanced 17 of them by at least one probability subgroup while only seven were moved backward. Of the 76 patients without disease, 34 were appropriately moved into a lower probability subgroup while 10 were incorrectly moved up. We conclude that posttest probabilities calculated from Bayes theorem more accurately classified patients with and without disease than did pretest probabilities, thus demonstrating the utility of the theorem in this application.« less

24 CFR 27.20 - Conditions of foreclosure sale.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... probable causes of project failure resulting in its default; (2) A financial analysis of the project... analysis of the project, including the condition of the structure and grounds, the need for rehabilitation... financial feasibility of the project after foreclosure and sale subject to the terms to be required by the...

Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-11

1994; Hammond 1999; Kohlberg and Reny 1997; Kreps and Wilson 1982; Myerson 1986; Selten 1965; Selten 1975]). It also arises in the analysis of...sets of measure 0): BBD considered three; Kohlberg and Reny [1997] considered two others. It turns out that these notions are perhaps best understood...number of characterizations of solution concepts depend on independence (see, for example, [Battigalli 1996; Kohlberg and Reny 1997; Battigalli and

Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laufenberg, Jared S.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

2013-01-01

DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear (Ursus americanus) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (pA and pB, respectively, or p, collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability for the larger of 2 mixture proportions of the population (i.e., pA or pB, depending on the value of π) was most important for predicting accuracy and precision, whereas capture probabilities of both mixture proportions (pA and pB) were important to explain variation in coverage. Based on sampling conditions similar to parameter estimates from the empirical dataset (pA = 0.30, pB = 0.05, N = 250, π = 0.15, and k = 10), predicted accuracy and precision were low (60% and 53%, respectively), whereas coverage was high (94%). Increasing pB, the capture probability for the predominate but most difficult to capture proportion of the population, was most effective to improve accuracy under those conditions. However, manipulation of other parameters may be more effective under different conditions. In general, the probabilities of obtaining accurate and precise estimates were best when p≥ 0.2. Our regression models can be used by managers to evaluate specific sampling scenarios and guide development of sampling frameworks or to assess reliability of DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies.

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Summary Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students’ understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. PMID:25419016

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-01-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Probabilistic safety analysis of earth retaining structures during earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grivas, D. A.; Souflis, C.

1982-07-01

A procedure is presented for determining the probability of failure of Earth retaining structures under static or seismic conditions. Four possible modes of failure (overturning, base sliding, bearing capacity, and overall sliding) are examined and their combined effect is evaluated with the aid of combinatorial analysis. The probability of failure is shown to be a more adequate measure of safety than the customary factor of safety. As Earth retaining structures may fail in four distinct modes, a system analysis can provide a single estimate for the possibility of failure. A Bayesian formulation of the safety retaining walls is found to provide an improved measure for the predicted probability of failure under seismic loading. The presented Bayesian analysis can account for the damage incurred to a retaining wall during an earthquake to provide an improved estimate for its probability of failure during future seismic events.

Oil-spill risk analysis: Cook inlet outer continental shelf lease sale 149. Volume 2: Conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Anderson, C.M.

1994-08-01

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands in Cook Inlet for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. In evaluating the significance of accidental oil spills, it is important to remember that the occurrence of such spills is fundamentally probabilistic. The effects of oil spills that could occur during oil and gas production must be considered. This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed Cook Inlet OCS Lease Sale 149. The objectivemore » of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed lease sale. To aid the analysis, conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities of spill contact were generated for each environmental resource or land segment in the study area. This aspect is discussed in this volume of the two volume report.« less

Racial/Ethnic and County-level Disparity in Inpatient Utilization among Hawai'i Medicaid Population.

PubMed

Siriwardhana, Chathura; Lim, Eunjung; Aggarwal, Lovedhi; Davis, James; Hixon, Allen; Chen, John J

2018-05-01

We investigated racial/ethnic and county-level disparities in inpatient utilization for 15 clinical conditions among Hawaii's Medicaid population. The study was conducted using inpatient claims data from more than 200,000 Hawai'i Medicaid beneficiaries, reported in the year 2010. The analysis was performed by stratifying the Medicaid population into three age groups: children and adolescent group (1-20 years), adult group (21-64 years), and elderly group (65 years and above). Among the differences found, Asians had a low probability of inpatient admissions compared to Whites for many disease categories, while Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders had higher probabilities than Whites, across all age groups. Pediatric and adult groups from Hawai'i County (Big Island) had lower probabilities for inpatient admissions compared to Honolulu County (O'ahu) for most disease conditions, but higher probabilities were observed for several conditions in the elderly group. Notably, the elderly population residing on Kaua'i County (Kaua'i and Ni'ihau islands) had substantially increased odds of hospital admissions for several disease conditions, compared to Honolulu.

Utility of tree crown condition indicators to predict tree survival using remeasured Forest Inventory and Analysis data

Treesearch

Randall S. Morin; Jim Steinman; KaDonna C. Randolph

2012-01-01

The condition of tree crowns is an important indicator of tree and forest health. Crown conditions have been evaluated during surveys of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Phase 3 (P3) plots since 1999. In this study, remeasured data from 39,357 trees in the northern United States were used to assess the probability of survival among various tree species using the...

Encounter risk analysis of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration in the irrigation district

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jinping; Lin, Xiaomin; Zhao, Yong; Hong, Yang

2017-09-01

Rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are random but mutually affected variables in the irrigation district, and their encounter situation can determine water shortage risks under the contexts of natural water supply and demand. However, in reality, the rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration may have different marginal distributions and their relations are nonlinear. In this study, based on the annual rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration data series from 1970 to 2013 in the Luhun irrigation district of China, the joint probability distribution of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are developed with the Frank copula function. Using the joint probability distribution, the synchronous-asynchronous encounter risk, conditional joint probability, and conditional return period of different combinations of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results show that the copula-based joint probability distributions of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration are reasonable. The asynchronous encounter probability of rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration is greater than their synchronous encounter probability, and the water shortage risk associated with meteorological drought (i.e. rainfall variability) is more prone to appear. Compared with other states, there are higher conditional joint probability and lower conditional return period in either low rainfall or high reference crop evapotranspiration. For a specifically high reference crop evapotranspiration with a certain frequency, the encounter risk of low rainfall and high reference crop evapotranspiration is increased with the decrease in frequency. For a specifically low rainfall with a certain frequency, the encounter risk of low rainfall and high reference crop evapotranspiration is decreased with the decrease in frequency. When either the high reference crop evapotranspiration exceeds a certain frequency or low rainfall does not exceed a certain frequency, the higher conditional joint probability and lower conditional return period of various combinations likely cause a water shortage, but the water shortage is not severe.

Stochastic approach for an unbiased estimation of the probability of a successful separation in conventional chromatography and sequential elution liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Ennis, Erin J; Foley, Joe P

2016-07-15

A stochastic approach was utilized to estimate the probability of a successful isocratic or gradient separation in conventional chromatography for numbers of sample components, peak capacities, and saturation factors ranging from 2 to 30, 20-300, and 0.017-1, respectively. The stochastic probabilities were obtained under conditions of (i) constant peak width ("gradient" conditions) and (ii) peak width increasing linearly with time ("isocratic/constant N" conditions). The isocratic and gradient probabilities obtained stochastically were compared with the probabilities predicted by Martin et al. [Anal. Chem., 58 (1986) 2200-2207] and Davis and Stoll [J. Chromatogr. A, (2014) 128-142]; for a given number of components and peak capacity the same trend is always observed: probability obtained with the isocratic stochastic approach

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE PAGES

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; ...

2017-05-16

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

Probabilistic structural analysis methods and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.; Wu, Y.-T.; Dias, B.; Rajagopal, K. R.

1988-01-01

An advanced algorithm for simulating the probabilistic distribution of structural responses due to statistical uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, and boundary conditions is reported. The method effectively combines an advanced algorithm for calculating probability levels for multivariate problems (fast probability integration) together with a general-purpose finite-element code for stress, vibration, and buckling analysis. Application is made to a space propulsion system turbine blade for which the geometry and material properties are treated as random variables.

Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.

1987-01-01

An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence. ?? 1987 J.C. Baltzer A.G., Scientific Publishing Company.

[Comments on the use of the "life-table method" in orthopedics].

PubMed

Hassenpflug, J; Hahne, H J; Hedderich, J

1992-01-01

In the description of long term results, e.g. of joint replacements, survivorship analysis is used increasingly in orthopaedic surgery. The survivorship analysis is more useful to describe the frequency of failure rather than global statements in percentage. The relative probability of failure for fixed intervals is drawn from the number of controlled patients and the frequency of failure. The complementary probabilities of success are linked in their temporal sequence thus representing the probability of survival at a fixed endpoint. Necessary condition for the use of this procedure is the exact definition of moment and manner of failure. It is described how to establish survivorship tables.

Uncertainty Analysis and Parameter Estimation For Nearshore Hydrodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardani, S.; Kaihatu, J. M.

2012-12-01

Numerical models represent deterministic approaches used for the relevant physical processes in the nearshore. Complexity of the physics of the model and uncertainty involved in the model inputs compel us to apply a stochastic approach to analyze the robustness of the model. The Bayesian inverse problem is one powerful way to estimate the important input model parameters (determined by apriori sensitivity analysis) and can be used for uncertainty analysis of the outputs. Bayesian techniques can be used to find the range of most probable parameters based on the probability of the observed data and the residual errors. In this study, the effect of input data involving lateral (Neumann) boundary conditions, bathymetry and off-shore wave conditions on nearshore numerical models are considered. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a deterministic numerical model (the Delft3D modeling suite for coupled waves and flow) for the resulting uncertainty analysis of the outputs (wave height, flow velocity, mean sea level and etc.). Uncertainty analysis of outputs is performed by random sampling from the input probability distribution functions and running the model as required until convergence to the consistent results is achieved. The case study used in this analysis is the Duck94 experiment, which was conducted at the U.S. Army Field Research Facility at Duck, North Carolina, USA in the fall of 1994. The joint probability of model parameters relevant for the Duck94 experiments will be found using the Bayesian approach. We will further show that, by using Bayesian techniques to estimate the optimized model parameters as inputs and applying them for uncertainty analysis, we can obtain more consistent results than using the prior information for input data which means that the variation of the uncertain parameter will be decreased and the probability of the observed data will improve as well. Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, Delft3D, uncertainty analysis, Bayesian techniques, MCMC

Measurement of the Errors of Service Altimeter Installations During Landing-Approach and Take-Off Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gracey, William; Jewel, Joseph W., Jr.; Carpenter, Gene T.

1960-01-01

The overall errors of the service altimeter installations of a variety of civil transport, military, and general-aviation airplanes have been experimentally determined during normal landing-approach and take-off operations. The average height above the runway at which the data were obtained was about 280 feet for the landings and about 440 feet for the take-offs. An analysis of the data obtained from 196 airplanes during 415 landing approaches and from 70 airplanes during 152 take-offs showed that: 1. The overall error of the altimeter installations in the landing- approach condition had a probable value (50 percent probability) of +/- 36 feet and a maximum probable value (99.7 percent probability) of +/- 159 feet with a bias of +10 feet. 2. The overall error in the take-off condition had a probable value of +/- 47 feet and a maximum probable value of +/- 207 feet with a bias of -33 feet. 3. The overall errors of the military airplanes were generally larger than those of the civil transports in both the landing-approach and take-off conditions. In the landing-approach condition the probable error and the maximum probable error of the military airplanes were +/- 43 and +/- 189 feet, respectively, with a bias of +15 feet, whereas those for the civil transports were +/- 22 and +/- 96 feet, respectively, with a bias of +1 foot. 4. The bias values of the error distributions (+10 feet for the landings and -33 feet for the take-offs) appear to represent a measure of the hysteresis characteristics (after effect and recovery) and friction of the instrument and the pressure lag of the tubing-instrument system.

Dynamic prediction of patient outcomes during ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

PubMed

Kim, Joonghee; Kim, Kyuseok; Callaway, Clifton W; Doh, Kibbeum; Choi, Jungho; Park, Jongdae; Jo, You Hwan; Lee, Jae Hyuk

2017-02-01

The probability of the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and subsequent favourable outcomes changes dynamically during advanced cardiac life support (ACLS). We sought to model these changes using time-to-event analysis in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. Adult (≥18 years old), non-traumatic OHCA patients without prehospital ROSC were included. Utstein variables and initial arterial blood gas measurements were used as predictors. The incidence rate of ROSC during the first 30min of ACLS in the emergency department (ED) was modelled using spline-based parametric survival analysis. Conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC (1-week and 1-month survival and 6-month neurologic recovery) were modelled using multivariable logistic regression. The ROSC and conditional probability models were then combined to estimate the likelihood of achieving ROSC and subsequent outcomes by providing k additional minutes of effort. A total of 727 patients were analyzed. The incidence rate of ROSC increased rapidly until the 10th minute of ED ACLS, and it subsequently decreased. The conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC were also dependent on the duration of resuscitation with odds ratios for 1-week and 1-month survival and neurologic recovery of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.96, p<0.001), 0.93 (0.88-0.97, p=0.001) and 0.93 (0.87-0.99, p=0.031) per 1-min increase, respectively. Calibration testing of the combined models showed good correlation between mean predicted probability and actual prevalence. The probability of ROSC and favourable subsequent outcomes changed according to a multiphasic pattern over the first 30min of ACLS, and modelling of the dynamic changes was feasible. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability computation using fault tree analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelson, P. O.

1971-01-01

A method is presented for calculating event probabilities from an arbitrary fault tree. The method includes an analytical derivation of the system equation and is not a simulation program. The method can handle systems that incorporate standby redundancy and it uses conditional probabilities for computing fault trees where the same basic failure appears in more than one fault path.

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND PROBABILITY DATA: EXAMPLES FOR IMPAIRED AQUATIC CONDITION

EPA Science Inventory

Causal analysis is plausible reasoning applied to diagnosing observed effect(s), for example, diagnosing

cause of biological impairment in a stream. Sir Bradford Hill basically defined the application of causal

analysis when he enumerated the elements of causality f...

Contingency Space Analysis: An Alternative Method for Identifying Contingent Relations from Observational Data

PubMed Central

Martens, Brian K; DiGennaro, Florence D; Reed, Derek D; Szczech, Frances M; Rosenthal, Blair D

2008-01-01

Descriptive assessment methods have been used in applied settings to identify consequences for problem behavior, thereby aiding in the design of effective treatment programs. Consensus has not been reached, however, regarding the types of data or analytic strategies that are most useful for describing behavior–consequence relations. One promising approach involves the analysis of conditional probabilities from sequential recordings of behavior and events that follow its occurrence. In this paper we review several strategies for identifying contingent relations from conditional probabilities, and propose an alternative strategy known as a contingency space analysis (CSA). Step-by-step procedures for conducting and interpreting a CSA using sample data are presented, followed by discussion of the potential use of a CSA for conducting descriptive assessments, informing intervention design, and evaluating changes in reinforcement contingencies following treatment. PMID:18468280

The Effect of Physician Delegation to Other Health Care Providers on the Quality of Care for Geriatric Conditions

PubMed Central

Lichtenstein, Brian J.; Reuben, David B.; Karlamangla, Arun S.; Han, Weijuan; Roth, Carol P.; Wenger, Neil S.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES to examine the effects of delegation on quality of care that patients receive for three common geriatric conditions: dementia, falls, and incontinence. DESIGN pooled analysis of 8 the Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders (ACOVE) projects from 1998 to 2010. SETTING 15 ambulatory practice sites across the United States PARTICIPANTS 4,776 patients age ≥ 65 years, of mixed demographic backgrounds who participated in ACOVE studies. INTERVENTION multivariate analysis of prior ACOVE observation and intervention studies was conducted, with in addition to two retrospectively defined variables: “intent to delegate” and “maximum delegation” for each ACOVE quality indicator (QI). MEASUREMENTS The primary outcome for the study was QI pass probability, by level of delegation, for 47 ACOVE quality indicators. RESULTS A total of 4,776 patients were evaluated, with 16,204 QIs included for analysis. Across all studies, QI pass probabilities were 0.36 for physician-performed tasks; 0.55 for nurse practitioner (NP), physician assistant (PA), and registered nurse (RN)-performed tasks; and 0.61 for medical assistant (MA), or licensed vocational nurse (LVN)-performed tasks. In multiply adjusted models, the independent pass-probability effect of delegation to NPs, PAs, or RNs was 1.37 (p = 0.055) CONCLUSIONS Delegation to non-physician providers is associated with higher quality of care for geriatric conditions in community practices and supports the value of interdisciplinary team management for common outpatient conditions among older adults. PMID:26480977

Risk estimation using probability machines

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Risk estimation using probability machines.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Abhijit; Szymczak, Silke; Moore, Jason H; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Malley, James D

2014-03-01

Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a "risk machine", will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from.

Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kendall, William L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2012-01-01

Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (>1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly <1 for all 13 estimable years considered. Our results suggest that experience is an important factor determining whether or not individuals attempt to breed during harsh environmental conditions and that reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiqiang; Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-04-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit.

The negated conditional: a litmus test for the suppositional conditional?

PubMed

Handley, Simon J; Evans, Jonathan St B T; Thompson, Valerie A

2006-05-01

Under the suppositional account of conditionals, when people think about a conditional assertion, "if p then q," they engage in a mental simulation in which they imagine p holds and evaluate the probability that q holds under this supposition. One implication of this account is that belief in a conditional equates to conditional probability [P(q/p)]. In this paper, the authors examine a further implication of this analysis with respect to the wide-scope negation of conditional assertions, "it is not the case that if p then q." Under the suppositional account, nothing categorically follows from the negation of a conditional, other than a second conditional, "if p then not-q." In contrast, according to the mental model theory, a negated conditional is consistent only with the determinate state of affairs, p and not-q. In 4 experiments, the authors compare the contrasting predictions that arise from each of these accounts. The findings are consistent with the suppositional theory but are incongruent with the mental model theory of conditionals.

14 CFR 25.952 - Fuel system analysis and test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.952 Fuel system analysis and test. (a) Proper fuel system functioning under all probable operating conditions must be shown... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fuel system analysis and test. 25.952...

14 CFR 25.952 - Fuel system analysis and test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.952 Fuel system analysis and test. (a) Proper fuel system functioning under all probable operating conditions must be shown... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fuel system analysis and test. 25.952...

14 CFR 25.952 - Fuel system analysis and test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.952 Fuel system analysis and test. (a) Proper fuel system functioning under all probable operating conditions must be shown... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fuel system analysis and test. 25.952...

14 CFR 25.952 - Fuel system analysis and test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.952 Fuel system analysis and test. (a) Proper fuel system functioning under all probable operating conditions must be shown... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Fuel system analysis and test. 25.952...

14 CFR 25.952 - Fuel system analysis and test.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.952 Fuel system analysis and test. (a) Proper fuel system functioning under all probable operating conditions must be shown... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system analysis and test. 25.952...

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time-Series and Intervention Analysis.

PubMed

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei

2017-07-01

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time-series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time-series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two-month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time-series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision trees with multiple branches: use of the Dirichlet distribution in a Bayesian framework.

PubMed

Briggs, Andrew H; Ades, A E; Price, Martin J

2003-01-01

In structuring decision models of medical interventions, it is commonly recommended that only 2 branches be used for each chance node to avoid logical inconsistencies that can arise during sensitivity analyses if the branching probabilities do not sum to 1. However, information may be naturally available in an unconditional form, and structuring a tree in conditional form may complicate rather than simplify the sensitivity analysis of the unconditional probabilities. Current guidance emphasizes using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and a method is required to provide probabilistic probabilities over multiple branches that appropriately represents uncertainty while satisfying the requirement that mutually exclusive event probabilities should sum to 1. The authors argue that the Dirichlet distribution, the multivariate equivalent of the beta distribution, is appropriate for this purpose and illustrate its use for generating a fully probabilistic transition matrix for a Markov model. Furthermore, they demonstrate that by adopting a Bayesian approach, the problem of observing zero counts for transitions of interest can be overcome.

Optimum space shuttle launch times relative to natural environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, R. L.

1977-01-01

Three sets of meteorological criteria were analyzed to determine the probabilities of favorable launch and landing conditions. Probabilities were computed for every 3 hours on a yearly basis using 14 years of weather data. These temporal probability distributions, applicable to the three sets of weather criteria encompassing benign, moderate and severe weather conditions, were computed for both Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Edwards Air Force Base. In addition, conditional probabilities were computed for unfavorable weather conditions occurring after a delay which may or may not be due to weather conditions. Also, for KSC, the probabilities of favorable landing conditions at various times after favorable launch conditions have prevailed have been computed so that mission probabilities may be more accurately computed for those time periods when persistence strongly correlates weather conditions. Moreover, the probabilities and conditional probabilities of the occurrence of both favorable and unfavorable events for each individual criterion were computed to indicate the significance of each weather element to the overall result.

Recent research on the high-probability instructional sequence: A brief review.

PubMed

Lipschultz, Joshua; Wilder, David A

2017-04-01

The high-probability (high-p) instructional sequence consists of the delivery of a series of high-probability instructions immediately before delivery of a low-probability or target instruction. It is commonly used to increase compliance in a variety of populations. Recent research has described variations of the high-p instructional sequence and examined the conditions under which the sequence is most effective. This manuscript reviews the most recent research on the sequence and identifies directions for future research. Recommendations for practitioners regarding the use of the high-p instructional sequence are also provided. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Convexity of Ruin Probability and Optimal Dividend Strategies for a General Lévy Process

PubMed Central

Yuen, Kam Chuen; Shen, Ying

2015-01-01

We consider the optimal dividends problem for a company whose cash reserves follow a general Lévy process with certain positive jumps and arbitrary negative jumps. The objective is to find a policy which maximizes the expected discounted dividends until the time of ruin. Under appropriate conditions, we use some recent results in the theory of potential analysis of subordinators to obtain the convexity properties of probability of ruin. We present conditions under which the optimal dividend strategy, among all admissible ones, takes the form of a barrier strategy. PMID:26351655

Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

PubMed

Sulis, William H

2017-10-01

Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

Prevalence and co-occurrence of addictive behaviors among former alternative high school youth: A longitudinal follow-up study.

PubMed

Sussman, Steve; Pokhrel, Pallav; Sun, Ping; Rohrbach, Louise A; Spruijt-Metz, Donna

2015-09-01

Recent work has studied addictions using a matrix measure, which taps multiple addictions through single responses for each type. This is the first longitudinal study using a matrix measure. We investigated the use of this approach among former alternative high school youth (average age = 19.8 years at baseline; longitudinal n = 538) at risk for addictions. Lifetime and last 30-day prevalence of one or more of 11 addictions reviewed in other work was the primary focus (i.e., cigarettes, alcohol, hard drugs, shopping, gambling, Internet, love, sex, eating, work, and exercise). These were examined at two time-points one year apart. Latent class and latent transition analyses (LCA and LTA) were conducted in Mplus. Prevalence rates were stable across the two time-points. As in the cross-sectional baseline analysis, the 2-class model (addiction class, non-addiction class) fit the data better at follow-up than models with more classes. Item-response or conditional probabilities for each addiction type did not differ between time-points. As a result, the LTA model utilized constrained the conditional probabilities to be equal across the two time-points. In the addiction class, larger conditional probabilities (i.e., 0.40-0.49) were found for love, sex, exercise, and work addictions; medium conditional probabilities (i.e., 0.17-0.27) were found for cigarette, alcohol, other drugs, eating, Internet and shopping addiction; and a small conditional probability (0.06) was found for gambling. Persons in an addiction class tend to remain in this addiction class over a one-year period.

Ranking procedure for partial discriminant analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckman, R.J.; Johnson, M.E.

1981-09-01

A rank procedure developed by Broffitt, Randles, and Hogg (1976) is modified to control the conditional probability of misclassification given that classification has been attempted. This modification leads to a useful solution to the two-population partial discriminant analysis problem for even moderately sized training sets.

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with competing failure modes - Preliminary data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Leibecki, H. F.; Bozek, J. M.

1980-01-01

The data analysis of cycles to failure of silver-zinc electrochemical cells with competing failure modes is presented. The test ran 129 cells through charge-discharge cycles until failure; preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimate of life. Batteries fail through low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition; a competing failure modes analysis was made using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution. Extensive residual plotting and probability plotting were used to verify data quality and selection of model.

The influence of baseline marijuana use on treatment of cocaine dependence: application of an informative-priors bayesian approach.

PubMed

Green, Charles; Schmitz, Joy; Lindsay, Jan; Pedroza, Claudia; Lane, Scott; Agnelli, Rob; Kjome, Kimberley; Moeller, F Gerard

2012-01-01

Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1) examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2) apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect. A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided complete data for the historical (Study 1: N = 64 placebo), and current (Study 2: N = 113) data sets. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES) as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo), baseline marijuana use (days in past 30), and their interaction. Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES. The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect.

The Influence of Baseline Marijuana Use on Treatment of Cocaine Dependence: Application of an Informative-Priors Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Green, Charles; Schmitz, Joy; Lindsay, Jan; Pedroza, Claudia; Lane, Scott; Agnelli, Rob; Kjome, Kimberley; Moeller, F. Gerard

2012-01-01

Background: Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1) examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2) apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect. Method: A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided complete data for the historical (Study 1: N = 64 placebo), and current (Study 2: N = 113) data sets. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES) as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo), baseline marijuana use (days in past 30), and their interaction. Results: Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES. Conclusion: The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect. PMID:23115553

FASP, an analytic resource appraisal program for petroleum play analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.; Balay, R.H.

1986-01-01

An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented in a FORTRAN program termed FASP. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An established geologic model considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The program FASP produces resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and many laws of expectation and variance. ?? 1986.

Bayesian network representing system dynamics in risk analysis of nuclear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varuttamaseni, Athi

2011-12-01

A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model is used in conjunction with the alternating conditional expectation (ACE) regression method to analyze the risk associated with the loss of feedwater accident coupled with a subsequent initiation of the feed and bleed operation in the Zion-1 nuclear power plant. The use of the DBN allows the joint probability distribution to be factorized, enabling the analysis to be done on many simpler network structures rather than on one complicated structure. The construction of the DBN model assumes conditional independence relations among certain key reactor parameters. The choice of parameter to model is based on considerations of the macroscopic balance statements governing the behavior of the reactor under a quasi-static assumption. The DBN is used to relate the peak clad temperature to a set of independent variables that are known to be important in determining the success of the feed and bleed operation. A simple linear relationship is then used to relate the clad temperature to the core damage probability. To obtain a quantitative relationship among different nodes in the DBN, surrogates of the RELAP5 reactor transient analysis code are used. These surrogates are generated by applying the ACE algorithm to output data obtained from about 50 RELAP5 cases covering a wide range of the selected independent variables. These surrogates allow important safety parameters such as the fuel clad temperature to be expressed as a function of key reactor parameters such as the coolant temperature and pressure together with important independent variables such as the scram delay time. The time-dependent core damage probability is calculated by sampling the independent variables from their probability distributions and propagate the information up through the Bayesian network to give the clad temperature. With the knowledge of the clad temperature and the assumption that the core damage probability has a one-to-one relationship to it, we have calculated the core damage probably as a function of transient time. The use of the DBN model in combination with ACE allows risk analysis to be performed with much less effort than if the analysis were done using the standard techniques.

Students' Understanding of Conditional Probability on Entering University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reaburn, Robyn

2013-01-01

An understanding of conditional probability is essential for students of inferential statistics as it is used in Null Hypothesis Tests. Conditional probability is also used in Bayes' theorem, in the interpretation of medical screening tests and in quality control procedures. This study examines the understanding of conditional probability of…

Empirical estimation of the conditional probability of natech events within the United States.

PubMed

Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Aguirra, Gloria Andrea

2011-06-01

Natural disasters are the cause of a sizeable number of hazmat releases, referred to as "natechs." An enhanced understanding of natech probability, allowing for predictions of natech occurrence, is an important step in determining how industry and government should mitigate natech risk. This study quantifies the conditional probabilities of natechs at TRI/RMP and SICS 1311 facilities given the occurrence of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods. During hurricanes, a higher probability of releases was observed due to storm surge (7.3 releases per 100 TRI/RMP facilities exposed vs. 6.2 for SIC 1311) compared to category 1-2 hurricane winds (5.6 TRI, 2.6 SIC 1311). Logistic regression confirms the statistical significance of the greater propensity for releases at RMP/TRI facilities, and during some hurricanes, when controlling for hazard zone. The probability of natechs at TRI/RMP facilities during earthquakes increased from 0.1 releases per 100 facilities at MMI V to 21.4 at MMI IX. The probability of a natech at TRI/RMP facilities within 25 miles of a tornado was small (∼0.025 per 100 facilities), reflecting the limited area directly affected by tornadoes. Areas inundated during flood events had a probability of 1.1 releases per 100 facilities but demonstrated widely varying natech occurrence during individual events, indicating that factors not quantified in this study such as flood depth and speed are important for predicting flood natechs. These results can inform natech risk analysis, aid government agencies responsible for planning response and remediation after natural disasters, and should be useful in raising awareness of natech risk within industry. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

An extended car-following model considering the appearing probability of truck and driver's characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Ying; Wen, Huiying

2018-05-01

In this paper, the appearing probability of truck is introduced and an extended car-following model is presented to analyze the traffic flow based on the consideration of driver's characteristics, under honk environment. The stability condition of this proposed model is obtained through linear stability analysis. In order to study the evolution properties of traffic wave near the critical point, the mKdV equation is derived by the reductive perturbation method. The results show that the traffic flow will become more disorder for the larger appearing probability of truck. Besides, the appearance of leading truck affects not only the stability of traffic flow, but also the effect of other aspects on traffic flow, such as: driver's reaction and honk effect. The effects of them on traffic flow are closely correlated with the appearing probability of truck. Finally, the numerical simulations under the periodic boundary condition are carried out to verify the proposed model. And they are consistent with the theoretical findings.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Shih-Jung

Dynamic strength of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) vessel to resist hypothetical accidents is analyzed by using the method of fracture mechanics. Vessel critical stresses are estimated by applying dynamic pressure pulses of a range of magnitudes and pulse-durations. The pulses versus time functions are assumed to be step functions. The probability of vessel fracture is then calculated by assuming a distribution of possible surface cracks of different crack depths. The probability distribution function for the crack depths is based on the form that is recommended by the Marshall report. The toughness of the vessel steel used in themore » analysis is based on the projected and embrittled value after 10 effective full power years from 1986. From the study made by Cheverton, Merkle and Nanstad, the weakest point on the vessel for fracture evaluation is known to be located within the region surrounding the tangential beam tube HB3. The increase in the probability of fracture is obtained as an extension of the result from that report for the regular operating condition to include conditions of higher dynamic pressures due to accident loadings. The increase in the probability of vessel fracture is plotted for a range of hoop stresses to indicate the vessel strength against hypothetical accident conditions.« less

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

PubMed Central

Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit. PMID:29765629

Estimation of the risk of failure for an endodontically treated maxillary premolar with MODP preparation and CAD/CAM ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Lin, Chun-Li; Chang, Yen-Hsiang; Pa, Che-An

2009-10-01

This study evaluated the risk of failure for an endodontically treated premolar with mesio occlusodistal palatal (MODP) preparation and 3 different computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) ceramic restoration configurations. Three 3-dimensional finite element (FE) models designed with CAD/CAM ceramic onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations were constructed to perform simulations. The Weibull function was incorporated with FE analysis to calculate the long-term failure probability relative to different load conditions. The results indicated that the stress values on the enamel, dentin, and luting cement for endocrown restoration were the lowest values relative to the other 2 restorations. Weibull analysis revealed that the individual failure probability in the endocrown enamel, dentin, and luting cement obviously diminished more than those for onlay and conventional crown restorations. The overall failure probabilities were 27.5%, 1%, and 1% for onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations, respectively, in normal occlusal condition. This numeric investigation suggests that endocrown and conventional crown restorations for endodontically treated premolars with MODP preparation present similar longevity.

Conditional Belief Types

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-19

event is the same as conditioning on the event being certain, which formalizes the standard informal interpretation of conditional probability. The game ...theoretic application of our model, discussed within an example, sheds light on a number of issues in the analysis of extensive form games . Type...belief types Block 13: Supplementary Note © 2014 . Published in Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. Ed. 0 87, (0) (2014), (, (0). DoD Components

Simulation of precipitation by weather pattern and frontal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert

1995-12-01

Daily rainfall from two sites in central and southern England was stratified according to the presence or absence of weather fronts and then cross-tabulated with the prevailing Lamb Weather Type (LWT). A semi-Markov chain model was developed for simulating daily sequences of LWTs from matrices of transition probabilities between weather types for the British Isles 1970-1990. Daily and annual rainfall distributions were then simulated from the prevailing LWTs using historic conditional probabilities for precipitation occurrence and frontal frequencies. When compared with a conventional rainfall generator the frontal model produced improved estimates of the overall size distribution of daily rainfall amounts and in particular the incidence of low-frequency high-magnitude totals. Further research is required to establish the contribution of individual frontal sub-classes to daily rainfall totals and of long-term fluctuations in frontal frequencies to conditional probabilities.

Progressing from Identification and Functional Analysis of Precursor Behavior to Treatment of Self-Injurious Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dracobly, Joseph D.; Smith, Richard G.

2012-01-01

This multiple-study experiment evaluated the utility of assessing and treating severe self-injurious behavior (SIB) based on the outcomes of a functional analysis of precursor behavior. In Study 1, a precursor to SIB was identified using descriptive assessment and conditional probability analyses. In Study 2, a functional analysis of precursor…

Using landslide risk analysis to protect fish habitat

Treesearch

R. M. Rice

1986-01-01

The protection of anadromous fish habitat is an important water quslity concern in the Pacific Northwest. Sediment from logging-related debris avalanches can cause habitat degradation. Research on conditions associated with the sites where debris avalanches originate has resulted in a risk assessment methodology based on linear discriminant analysis. The probability...

Prevalence and co-occurrence of addictive behaviors among former alternative high school youth: A longitudinal follow-up study

PubMed Central

Sussman, Steve; Pokhrel, Pallav; Sun, Ping; Rohrbach, Louise A.; Spruijt-Metz, Donna

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Recent work has studied addictions using a matrix measure, which taps multiple addictions through single responses for each type. This is the first longitudinal study using a matrix measure. Methods We investigated the use of this approach among former alternative high school youth (average age = 19.8 years at baseline; longitudinal n = 538) at risk for addictions. Lifetime and last 30-day prevalence of one or more of 11 addictions reviewed in other work was the primary focus (i.e., cigarettes, alcohol, hard drugs, shopping, gambling, Internet, love, sex, eating, work, and exercise). These were examined at two time-points one year apart. Latent class and latent transition analyses (LCA and LTA) were conducted in Mplus. Results Prevalence rates were stable across the two time-points. As in the cross-sectional baseline analysis, the 2-class model (addiction class, non-addiction class) fit the data better at follow-up than models with more classes. Item-response or conditional probabilities for each addiction type did not differ between time-points. As a result, the LTA model utilized constrained the conditional probabilities to be equal across the two time-points. In the addiction class, larger conditional probabilities (i.e., 0.40−0.49) were found for love, sex, exercise, and work addictions; medium conditional probabilities (i.e., 0.17−0.27) were found for cigarette, alcohol, other drugs, eating, Internet and shopping addiction; and a small conditional probability (0.06) was found for gambling. Discussion and Conclusions Persons in an addiction class tend to remain in this addiction class over a one-year period. PMID:26551909

Oil-spill risk analysis: Cook inlet outer continental shelf lease sale 149. Volume 1. The analysis. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Anderson, C.M.

1994-08-01

This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis (OSRA) conducted for the proposed lower Cook Inlet Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lease Sale 149. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative oil-spill risks associated with oil and gas production from the leasing alternatives proposed for the lease sale. The Minerals Management Service (MMS) will consider the analysis in the environmental impact statement (EIS) prepared for the lease sale. The analysis for proposed OCS Lease Sale 149 was conducted in three parts corresponding to different aspects of the overall problem. The first part dealt with the probability of oil-spillmore » occurrence. The second dealt with trajectories of oil spills from potential spill sites to various environmental resources or land segments. The third part combined the results of the first two parts to give estimates of the overall oil-spill risk if there is oil production as a result of the lease sale. To aid the analysis, conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities of spill contact were generated for each environmental resource or land segment in the study area (see vol. 2).« less

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with completing failures modes: Preliminary data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Leibecki, H. F.; Bozek, J. M.

1980-01-01

One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.

Synchronization Analysis of Master-Slave Probabilistic Boolean Networks.

PubMed

Lu, Jianquan; Zhong, Jie; Li, Lulu; Ho, Daniel W C; Cao, Jinde

2015-08-28

In this paper, we analyze the synchronization problem of master-slave probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs). The master Boolean network (BN) is a deterministic BN, while the slave BN is determined by a series of possible logical functions with certain probability at each discrete time point. In this paper, we firstly define the synchronization of master-slave PBNs with probability one, and then we investigate synchronization with probability one. By resorting to new approach called semi-tensor product (STP), the master-slave PBNs are expressed in equivalent algebraic forms. Based on the algebraic form, some necessary and sufficient criteria are derived to guarantee synchronization with probability one. Further, we study the synchronization of master-slave PBNs in probability. Synchronization in probability implies that for any initial states, the master BN can be synchronized by the slave BN with certain probability, while synchronization with probability one implies that master BN can be synchronized by the slave BN with probability one. Based on the equivalent algebraic form, some efficient conditions are derived to guarantee synchronization in probability. Finally, several numerical examples are presented to show the effectiveness of the main results.

Synchronization Analysis of Master-Slave Probabilistic Boolean Networks

PubMed Central

Lu, Jianquan; Zhong, Jie; Li, Lulu; Ho, Daniel W. C.; Cao, Jinde

2015-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the synchronization problem of master-slave probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs). The master Boolean network (BN) is a deterministic BN, while the slave BN is determined by a series of possible logical functions with certain probability at each discrete time point. In this paper, we firstly define the synchronization of master-slave PBNs with probability one, and then we investigate synchronization with probability one. By resorting to new approach called semi-tensor product (STP), the master-slave PBNs are expressed in equivalent algebraic forms. Based on the algebraic form, some necessary and sufficient criteria are derived to guarantee synchronization with probability one. Further, we study the synchronization of master-slave PBNs in probability. Synchronization in probability implies that for any initial states, the master BN can be synchronized by the slave BN with certain probability, while synchronization with probability one implies that master BN can be synchronized by the slave BN with probability one. Based on the equivalent algebraic form, some efficient conditions are derived to guarantee synchronization in probability. Finally, several numerical examples are presented to show the effectiveness of the main results. PMID:26315380

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

PubMed

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA Protocol for WBAN Medical Scenario through DTMC Model.

PubMed

Kumar, Vivek; Gupta, Bharat

2016-12-01

The newly drafted IEEE 802.15.6 standard for Wireless Body Area Networks (WBAN) has been concentrating on a numerous medical and non-medical applications. Such short range wireless communication standard offers ultra-low power consumption with variable data rates from few Kbps to Mbps in, on or around the proximity of the human body. In this paper, the performance analysis of carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) scheme based on IEEE 802.15.6 standard in terms of throughput, reliability, clear channel assessment (CCA) failure probability, packet drop probability, and end-to-end delay has been presented. We have developed a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) to significantly evaluate the performances of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA under non-ideal channel condition having saturated traffic condition including node wait time and service time. We also visualize that, as soon as the payload length increases the CCA failure probability increases, which results in lower node's reliability. Also, we have calculated the end-to-end delay in order to prioritize the node wait time cause by backoff and retransmission. The user priority (UP) wise DTMC analysis has been performed to show the importance of the standard especially for medical scenario.

Design and development of a ceramic radial turbine for the AGT101

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finger, D. G.; Gupta, S. K.

1982-01-01

An acceptable and feasible ceramic turbine wheel design has been achieved, and the relevant temperature, stress, and success probability analyses are discussed. The design is described, the materials selection presented, and the engine cycle conditions analysis parameters shown. Measured MOR four-point strengths are indicated for room and elevated temperatures, and engine conditions are analyzed for various cycle states, materials, power states, turbine inlet temperatures, and speeds. An advanced gas turbine ceramic turbine rotor thermal and stress model is developed, and cumulative probability of survival is shown for first and third-year properties of SiC and Si3N4 rotors under different operating conditions, computed for both blade and hub regions. Temperature and stress distributions for steady-state and worst-case shutdown transients are depicted.

Improved first-order uncertainty method for water-quality modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, C.S.; Anmangandla, S.

1992-01-01

Uncertainties are unavoidable in water-quality modeling and subsequent management decisions. Monte Carlo simulation and first-order uncertainty analysis (involving linearization at central values of the uncertain variables) have been frequently used to estimate probability distributions for water-quality model output due to their simplicity. Each method has its drawbacks: Monte Carlo simulation's is mainly computational time; and first-order analysis are mainly questions of accuracy and representativeness, especially for nonlinear systems and extreme conditions. An improved (advanced) first-order method is presented, where the linearization point varies to match the output level whose exceedance probability is sought. The advanced first-order method is tested on the Streeter-Phelps equation to estimate the probability distribution of critical dissolved-oxygen deficit and critical dissolved oxygen using two hypothetical examples from the literature. The advanced first-order method provides a close approximation of the exceedance probability for the Streeter-Phelps model output estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using less computer time - by two orders of magnitude - regardless of the probability distributions assumed for the uncertain model parameters.

Capture-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Runge, M.C.

2004-01-01

Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state mark-resighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982?2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.

Optimum space shuttle launch times relative to natural environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, R. L.

1977-01-01

The probabilities of favorable and unfavorable weather conditions for launch and landing of the STS under different criteria were computed for every three hours on a yearly basis using 14 years of weather data. These temporal probability distributions were considered for three sets of weather criteria encompassing benign, moderate and severe weather conditions for both Kennedy Space Center and for Edwards Air Force Base. In addition, the conditional probabilities were computed for unfavorable weather conditions occurring after a delay which may or may not be due to weather conditions. Also for KSC, the probabilities of favorable landing conditions at various times after favorable launch conditions have prevailed. The probabilities were computed to indicate the significance of each weather element to the overall result.

Detailed Analysis of the Interoccurrence Time Statistics in Seismic Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroki; Aizawa, Yoji

2017-02-01

The interoccurrence time statistics of seismiciry is studied theoretically as well as numerically by taking into account the conditional probability and the correlations among many earthquakes in different magnitude levels. It is known so far that the interoccurrence time statistics is well approximated by the Weibull distribution, but the more detailed information about the interoccurrence times can be obtained from the analysis of the conditional probability. Firstly, we propose the Embedding Equation Theory (EET), where the conditional probability is described by two kinds of correlation coefficients; one is the magnitude correlation and the other is the inter-event time correlation. Furthermore, the scaling law of each correlation coefficient is clearly determined from the numerical data-analysis carrying out with the Preliminary Determination of Epicenter (PDE) Catalog and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Catalog. Secondly, the EET is examined to derive the magnitude dependence of the interoccurrence time statistics and the multi-fractal relation is successfully formulated. Theoretically we cannot prove the universality of the multi-fractal relation in seismic activity; nevertheless, the theoretical results well reproduce all numerical data in our analysis, where several common features or the invariant aspects are clearly observed. Especially in the case of stationary ensembles the multi-fractal relation seems to obey an invariant curve, furthermore in the case of non-stationary (moving time) ensembles for the aftershock regime the multi-fractal relation seems to satisfy a certain invariant curve at any moving times. It is emphasized that the multi-fractal relation plays an important role to unify the statistical laws of seismicity: actually the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Weibull distribution are unified in the multi-fractal relation, and some universality conjectures regarding the seismicity are briefly discussed.

Annual Systems Engineering Conference: Focusing on Improving Performance of Defense Systems Programs (10th). Volume 3. Thursday Presentations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-10-25

the Phit <.0001 requirement) restricts tactical delivery conditions, the probability of a fragment hit may be further qualified by considering only...Pkill – UK uses “self damage” metric • Risk Analysis: “If the above procedures ( Phit or Pkill <.0001) still result in restricting tactical delivery...10 (From NAWCWD Briefing) 4 Safe Escape Analysis Requirements Calculate Phit ,Pkill, and Pdet Is Phit <= .0001 for all launch conditions Done NO YES

The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

PubMed Central

Larget, Bret

2013-01-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

2008-01-01

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

A hidden Markov model approach to neuron firing patterns.

PubMed

Camproux, A C; Saunier, F; Chouvet, G; Thalabard, J C; Thomas, G

1996-11-01

Analysis and characterization of neuronal discharge patterns are of interest to neurophysiologists and neuropharmacologists. In this paper we present a hidden Markov model approach to modeling single neuron electrical activity. Basically the model assumes that each interspike interval corresponds to one of several possible states of the neuron. Fitting the model to experimental series of interspike intervals by maximum likelihood allows estimation of the number of possible underlying neuron states, the probability density functions of interspike intervals corresponding to each state, and the transition probabilities between states. We present an application to the analysis of recordings of a locus coeruleus neuron under three pharmacological conditions. The model distinguishes two states during halothane anesthesia and during recovery from halothane anesthesia, and four states after administration of clonidine. The transition probabilities yield additional insights into the mechanisms of neuron firing.

Phobias and Preparedness - Republished Article.

PubMed

Seligman, Martin E P

2016-09-01

Some inadequacies of the classical conditioning analysis of phobias are discussed: phobias are highly resistant to extinction, whereas laboratory fear conditioning, unlike avoidance conditioning, extinguishes rapidly; phobias comprise a nonarbitrary and limited set of objects, whereas fear conditioning is thought to occur to an unlimited range of conditioned stimuli. Furthermore, phobias, unlike laboratory fear conditioning, are often acquired in one trial and seem quite resistant to change by "cognitive" means. An analysis of phobias using a more contemporary model of fear conditioning is proposed. In this view, phobias are seen as instances of highly "prepared" learning (Seligman, 1970). Such prepared learning is selective, highly resistant to extinction, probably noncognitive and can be acquired in one trial. A reconstruction of the notion of symbolism is suggested. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differential diagnosis of a probable case of non-adult thalassaemia from 4th century AD Romano-British Colchester, UK.

PubMed

Rohnbogner, Anna

2016-12-01

Our current understanding of immigration and diasporic disease in Roman Britain has been greatly enhanced by the recent identification of thalassaemia in the non-adult skeletal record. The wide phenotypic variation in the clinical expression of β-thalassaemia, however, means that additional cases may go unrecognised. A probable diagnosis for β-thalassaemia intermedia or a mild form of major in a 1.0-1.5year old skeleton from Butt Road, Colchester, dating to the 4th century AD is discussed here. The assessment was undertaken using macroscopic and radiographic analysis. Several conditions were apparent, including trauma and probable β-thalassaemia and active vitamin D deficiency. Diagnosis proved difficult due to the challenges that non-adult thalassaemia poses for identification in the skeletal record, as in the absence of the cranium only 'rib-within-a-rib' is currently considered as pathognomonic of the condition. This case demonstrates the variations in expression of this type of genetic anaemia and adds emphasis to a more widespread presence of this important condition in Roman Britain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occupational Choice: A Conditional Logit Model with Special Reference to Wage Subsidies and Occupational Choice. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boskin, Michael J.

A model of occupational choice based on the theory of human capital is developed and estimated by conditional logit analysis. The empirical results estimated the probability of individuals with certain characteristics (such as race, sex, age, and education) entering each of 11 occupational groups. The results indicate that individuals tend to…

An Alternative Teaching Method of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of the Truth Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Vashlishan Murray, Amy

2015-01-01

This paper presents a comparison of three approaches to the teaching of probability to demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic can be used to teach the calculations of conditional probabilities. Students are typically introduced to the topic of conditional probabilities--especially the ones that involve Bayes' rule--with…

A Method of Face Detection with Bayesian Probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarker, Goutam

2010-10-01

The objective of face detection is to identify all images which contain a face, irrespective of its orientation, illumination conditions etc. This is a hard problem, because the faces are highly variable in size, shape lighting conditions etc. Many methods have been designed and developed to detect faces in a single image. The present paper is based on one `Appearance Based Method' which relies on learning the facial and non facial features from image examples. This in its turn is based on statistical analysis of examples and counter examples of facial images and employs Bayesian Conditional Classification Rule to detect the probability of belongingness of a face (or non-face) within an image frame. The detection rate of the present system is very high and thereby the number of false positive and false negative detection is substantially low.

Health Monitoring Survey of Bell 412EP Transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Brian E.; Dempsey, Paula J.

2016-01-01

Health and usage monitoring systems (HUMS) use vibration-based Condition Indicators (CI) to assess the health of helicopter powertrain components. A fault is detected when a CI exceeds its threshold value. The effectiveness of fault detection can be judged on the basis of assessing the condition of actual components from fleet aircraft. The Bell 412 HUMS-equipped helicopter is chosen for such an evaluation. A sample of 20 aircraft included 12 aircraft with confirmed transmission and gearbox faults (detected by CIs) and eight aircraft with no known faults. The associated CI data is classified into "healthy" and "faulted" populations based on actual condition and these populations are compared against their CI thresholds to quantify the probability of false alarm and the probability of missed detection. Receiver Operator Characteristic analysis is used to optimize thresholds. Based on the results of the analysis, shortcomings in the classification method are identified for slow-moving CI trends. Recommendations for improving classification using time-dependent receiver-operator characteristic methods are put forth. Finally, lessons learned regarding OEM-operator communication are presented.

Codon usage bias reveals genomic adaptations to environmental conditions in an acidophilic consortium.

PubMed

Hart, Andrew; Cortés, María Paz; Latorre, Mauricio; Martinez, Servet

2018-01-01

The analysis of codon usage bias has been widely used to characterize different communities of microorganisms. In this context, the aim of this work was to study the codon usage bias in a natural consortium of five acidophilic bacteria used for biomining. The codon usage bias of the consortium was contrasted with genes from an alternative collection of acidophilic reference strains and metagenome samples. Results indicate that acidophilic bacteria preferentially have low codon usage bias, consistent with both their capacity to live in a wide range of habitats and their slow growth rate, a characteristic probably acquired independently from their phylogenetic relationships. In addition, the analysis showed significant differences in the unique sets of genes from the autotrophic species of the consortium in relation to other acidophilic organisms, principally in genes which code for proteins involved in metal and oxidative stress resistance. The lower values of codon usage bias obtained in this unique set of genes suggest higher transcriptional adaptation to living in extreme conditions, which was probably acquired as a measure for resisting the elevated metal conditions present in the mine.

Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

PubMed

Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

2018-02-01

Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Analysis of high-resolution foreign exchange data of USD-JPY for 13 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuno, Takayuki; Kurihara, Shoko; Takayasu, Misako; Takayasu, Hideki

2003-06-01

We analyze high-resolution foreign exchange data consisting of 20 million data points of USD-JPY for 13 years to report firm statistical laws in distributions and correlations of exchange rate fluctuations. A conditional probability density analysis clearly shows the existence of trend-following movements at time scale of 8-ticks, about 1 min.

The Probability Approach to English If-Conditional Sentences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Mei

2012-01-01

Users of the Probability Approach choose the right one from four basic types of conditional sentences--factual, predictive, hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals, by judging how likely (i.e. the probability) the event in the result-clause will take place when the condition in the if-clause is met. Thirty-three students from the experimental…

Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life’s early emergence on Earth

PubMed Central

Spiegel, David S.; Turner, Edwin L.

2012-01-01

Life arose on Earth sometime in the first few hundred million years after the young planet had cooled to the point that it could support water-based organisms on its surface. The early emergence of life on Earth has been taken as evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is high, if starting from young Earth-like conditions. We revisit this argument quantitatively in a Bayesian statistical framework. By constructing a simple model of the probability of abiogenesis, we calculate a Bayesian estimate of its posterior probability, given the data that life emerged fairly early in Earth’s history and that, billions of years later, curious creatures noted this fact and considered its implications. We find that, given only this very limited empirical information, the choice of Bayesian prior for the abiogenesis probability parameter has a dominant influence on the computed posterior probability. Although terrestrial life's early emergence provides evidence that life might be abundant in the universe if early-Earth-like conditions are common, the evidence is inconclusive and indeed is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors. Finding a single case of life arising independently of our lineage (on Earth, elsewhere in the solar system, or on an extrasolar planet) would provide much stronger evidence that abiogenesis is not extremely rare in the universe. PMID:22198766

Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life's early emergence on Earth.

PubMed

Spiegel, David S; Turner, Edwin L

2012-01-10

Life arose on Earth sometime in the first few hundred million years after the young planet had cooled to the point that it could support water-based organisms on its surface. The early emergence of life on Earth has been taken as evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is high, if starting from young Earth-like conditions. We revisit this argument quantitatively in a bayesian statistical framework. By constructing a simple model of the probability of abiogenesis, we calculate a bayesian estimate of its posterior probability, given the data that life emerged fairly early in Earth's history and that, billions of years later, curious creatures noted this fact and considered its implications. We find that, given only this very limited empirical information, the choice of bayesian prior for the abiogenesis probability parameter has a dominant influence on the computed posterior probability. Although terrestrial life's early emergence provides evidence that life might be abundant in the universe if early-Earth-like conditions are common, the evidence is inconclusive and indeed is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors. Finding a single case of life arising independently of our lineage (on Earth, elsewhere in the solar system, or on an extrasolar planet) would provide much stronger evidence that abiogenesis is not extremely rare in the universe.

Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation.

PubMed

Renjith, V R; Madhu, G; Nayagam, V Lakshmana Gomathi; Bhasi, A B

2010-11-15

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, R. A.; Datta, T. K.; Ahmad, S.

2005-06-01

A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges using Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) procedure is presented for determining their failure probability under random ground motion. Seismic input to the bridge support is considered to be a risk consistent response spectrum which is obtained from a separate analysis. For the response analysis, the bridge deck is modeles as a beam supported on spring at different points. The stiffnesses of the springs are determined by a separate 2D static analysis of cable-tower-deck system. The analysis provides a coupled stiffness matrix for the spring system. A continuum method of analysis using dynamic stiffness is used to determine the dynamic properties of the bridges. The response of the bridge deck is obtained by the response spectrum method of analysis as applied to multidegree of freedom system which duly takes into account the quasi-static component of bridge deck vibration. The fragility analysis includes uncertainties arising due to the variation in ground motion, material property, modeling, method of analysis, ductility factor and damage concentration effect. Probability of failure of the bridge deck is determined by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method of reliability. A three span double plane symmetrical fan type cable stayed bridge of total span 689 m, is used as an illustrative example. The fragility curves for the bridge deck failure are obtained under a number of parametric variations. Some of the important conclusions of the study indicate that (i) not only vertical component but also the horizontal component of ground motion has considerable effect on the probability of failure; (ii) ground motion with no time lag between support excitations provides a smaller probability of failure as compared to ground motion with very large time lag between support excitation; and (iii) probability of failure may considerably increase soft soil condition.

Multiple Chronic Conditions and Hospitalizations Among Recipients of Long-Term Services and Supports

PubMed Central

Van Cleave, Janet H.; Egleston, Brian L.; Abbott, Katherine M.; Hirschman, Karen B.; Rao, Aditi; Naylor, Mary D.

2016-01-01

Background Among older adults receiving long term-services and supports (LTSS), debilitating hospitalizations is a pervasive clinical and research problem. Multiple chronic conditions (MCC) are prevalent in LTSS recipients. However, the combination of MCC and diseases associated with hospitalizations of LTSS recipients is unclear. Objective The purpose of this analysis was to determine the association between classes of MCC in newly enrolled LTSS recipients and the number of hospitalizations over a one-year period following enrollment. Methods This report is based on secondary analysis of extant data from a longitudinal cohort study of 470 new recipients of LTSS, ages 60 years and older, receiving services in assisted living facilities, nursing homes, or through home- and community-based services. Using baseline chronic conditions reported in medical records, latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify classes of MCC and posterior probabilities of membership in each class. Poisson regressions were used to estimate the relative ratio between posterior probabilities of class membership and number of hospitalizations during the 3 month period prior to the start of LTSS (baseline) and then every three months forward through 12 months. Results Three latent MCC-based classes named Cardiopulmonary, Cerebrovascular/Paralysis, and All Other Conditions were identified. The Cardiopulmonary class was associated with elevated numbers of hospitalization compared to the All Other Conditions class (relative ratio [RR] = 1.88, 95% CI [1.33, 2.65], p < .001). Conclusion Older LTSS recipients with a combination of MCCs that includes cardiopulmonary conditions have increased risk for hospitalization. PMID:27801713

A new statistical methodology predicting chip failure probability considering electromigration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ted

In this research thesis, we present a new approach to analyze chip reliability subject to electromigration (EM) whose fundamental causes and EM phenomenon happened in different materials are presented in this thesis. This new approach utilizes the statistical nature of EM failure in order to assess overall EM risk. It includes within-die temperature variations from the chip's temperature map extracted by an Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tool to estimate the failure probability of a design. Both the power estimation and thermal analysis are performed in the EDA flow. We first used the traditional EM approach to analyze the design with a single temperature across the entire chip that involves 6 metal and 5 via layers. Next, we used the same traditional approach but with a realistic temperature map. The traditional EM analysis approach and that coupled with a temperature map and the comparison between the results of considering and not considering temperature map are presented in in this research. A comparison between these two results confirms that using a temperature map yields a less pessimistic estimation of the chip's EM risk. Finally, we employed the statistical methodology we developed considering a temperature map and different use-condition voltages and frequencies to estimate the overall failure probability of the chip. The statistical model established considers the scaling work with the usage of traditional Black equation and four major conditions. The statistical result comparisons are within our expectations. The results of this statistical analysis confirm that the chip level failure probability is higher i) at higher use-condition frequencies for all use-condition voltages, and ii) when a single temperature instead of a temperature map across the chip is considered. In this thesis, I start with an overall review on current design types, common flows, and necessary verifications and reliability checking steps used in this IC design industry. Furthermore, the important concepts about "Scripting Automation" which is used in all the integration of using diversified EDA tools in this research work are also described in detail with several examples and my completed coding works are also put in the appendix for your reference. Hopefully, this construction of my thesis will give readers a thorough understanding about my research work from the automation of EDA tools to the statistical data generation, from the nature of EM to the statistical model construction, and the comparisons among the traditional EM analysis and the statistical EM analysis approaches.

Probability models for growth and aflatoxin B1 production as affected by intraspecies variability in Aspergillus flavus.

PubMed

Aldars-García, Laila; Berman, María; Ortiz, Jordi; Ramos, Antonio J; Marín, Sonia

2018-06-01

The probability of growth and aflatoxin B 1 (AFB 1 ) production of 20 isolates of Aspergillus flavus were studied using a full factorial design with eight water activity levels (0.84-0.98 a w ) and six temperature levels (15-40 °C). Binary data obtained from growth studies were modelled using linear logistic regression analysis as a function of temperature, water activity and time for each isolate. In parallel, AFB 1 was extracted at different times from newly formed colonies (up to 20 mm in diameter). Although a total of 950 AFB 1 values over time for all conditions studied were recorded, they were not considered to be enough to build probability models over time, and therefore, only models at 30 days were built. The confidence intervals of the regression coefficients of the probability of growth models showed some differences among the 20 growth models. Further, to assess the growth/no growth and AFB 1 /no- AFB 1 production boundaries, 0.05 and 0.5 probabilities were plotted at 30 days for all of the isolates. The boundaries for growth and AFB 1 showed that, in general, the conditions for growth were wider than those for AFB 1 production. The probability of growth and AFB 1 production seemed to be less variable among isolates than AFB 1 accumulation. Apart from the AFB 1 production probability models, using growth probability models for AFB 1 probability predictions could be, although conservative, a suitable alternative. Predictive mycology should include a number of isolates to generate data to build predictive models and take into account the genetic diversity of the species and thus make predictions as similar as possible to real fungal food contamination. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality rates associated with crown health for eastern forest tree species

Treesearch

Randall S. Morin; KaDonna C. Randolph; Jim Steinman

2015-01-01

The condition of tree crowns is an important indicator of tree and forest health. Crown conditions have been evaluated during inventories of the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program since 1999. In this study, remeasured data from 55,013 trees on 2616 FIA plots in the eastern USA were used to assess the probability of survival among various tree...

The concept of entropy in landscape evolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leopold, Luna Bergere; Langbein, Walter Basil

1962-01-01

The concept of entropy is expressed in terms of probability of various states. Entropy treats of the distribution of energy. The principle is introduced that the most probable condition exists when energy in a river system is as uniformly distributed as may be permitted by physical constraints. From these general considerations equations for the longitudinal profiles of rivers are derived that are mathematically comparable to those observed in the field. The most probable river profiles approach the condition in which the downstream rate of production of entropy per unit mass is constant. Hydraulic equations are insufficient to determine the velocity, depths, and slopes of rivers that are themselves authors of their own hydraulic geometries. A solution becomes possible by introducing the concept that the distribution of energy tends toward the most probable. This solution leads to a theoretical definition of the hydraulic geometry of river channels that agrees closely with field observations. The most probable state for certain physical systems can also be illustrated by random-walk models. Average longitudinal profiles and drainage networks were so derived and these have the properties implied by the theory. The drainage networks derived from random walks have some of the principal properties demonstrated by the Horton analysis; specifically, the logarithms of stream length and stream numbers are proportional to stream order.

A hidden Markov model approach to neuron firing patterns.

PubMed Central

Camproux, A C; Saunier, F; Chouvet, G; Thalabard, J C; Thomas, G

1996-01-01

Analysis and characterization of neuronal discharge patterns are of interest to neurophysiologists and neuropharmacologists. In this paper we present a hidden Markov model approach to modeling single neuron electrical activity. Basically the model assumes that each interspike interval corresponds to one of several possible states of the neuron. Fitting the model to experimental series of interspike intervals by maximum likelihood allows estimation of the number of possible underlying neuron states, the probability density functions of interspike intervals corresponding to each state, and the transition probabilities between states. We present an application to the analysis of recordings of a locus coeruleus neuron under three pharmacological conditions. The model distinguishes two states during halothane anesthesia and during recovery from halothane anesthesia, and four states after administration of clonidine. The transition probabilities yield additional insights into the mechanisms of neuron firing. Images FIGURE 3 PMID:8913581

The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

PubMed

Larget, Bret

2013-07-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

Use of a Principal Components Analysis for the Generation of Daily Time Series.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreveton, Christine; Guillou, Yann

2004-07-01

A new approach for generating daily time series is considered in response to the weather-derivatives market. This approach consists of performing a principal components analysis to create independent variables, the values of which are then generated separately with a random process. Weather derivatives are financial or insurance products that give companies the opportunity to cover themselves against adverse climate conditions. The aim of a generator is to provide a wider range of feasible situations to be used in an assessment of risk. Generation of a temperature time series is required by insurers or bankers for pricing weather options. The provision of conditional probabilities and a good representation of the interannual variance are the main challenges of a generator when used for weather derivatives. The generator was developed according to this new approach using a principal components analysis and was applied to the daily average temperature time series of the Paris-Montsouris station in France. The observed dataset was homogenized and the trend was removed to represent correctly the present climate. The results obtained with the generator show that it represents correctly the interannual variance of the observed climate; this is the main result of the work, because one of the main discrepancies of other generators is their inability to represent accurately the observed interannual climate variance—this discrepancy is not acceptable for an application to weather derivatives. The generator was also tested to calculate conditional probabilities: for example, the knowledge of the aggregated value of heating degree-days in the middle of the heating season allows one to estimate the probability if reaching a threshold at the end of the heating season. This represents the main application of a climate generator for use with weather derivatives.

Vertical changes in the probability distribution of downward irradiance within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gernez, Pierre; Stramski, Dariusz; Darecki, Miroslaw

2011-07-01

Time series measurements of fluctuations in underwater downward irradiance, Ed, within the green spectral band (532 nm) show that the probability distribution of instantaneous irradiance varies greatly as a function of depth within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions. Because of intense light flashes caused by surface wave focusing, the near-surface probability distributions are highly skewed to the right and are heavy tailed. The coefficients of skewness and excess kurtosis at depths smaller than 1 m can exceed 3 and 20, respectively. We tested several probability models, such as lognormal, Gumbel, Fréchet, log-logistic, and Pareto, which are potentially suited to describe the highly skewed heavy-tailed distributions. We found that the models cannot approximate with consistently good accuracy the high irradiance values within the right tail of the experimental distribution where the probability of these values is less than 10%. This portion of the distribution corresponds approximately to light flashes with Ed > 1.5?, where ? is the time-averaged downward irradiance. However, the remaining part of the probability distribution covering all irradiance values smaller than the 90th percentile can be described with a reasonable accuracy (i.e., within 20%) with a lognormal model for all 86 measurements from the top 10 m of the ocean included in this analysis. As the intensity of irradiance fluctuations decreases with depth, the probability distribution tends toward a function symmetrical around the mean like the normal distribution. For the examined data set, the skewness and excess kurtosis assumed values very close to zero at a depth of about 10 m.

Prediction of Conditional Probability of Survival After Surgery for Gastric Cancer: A Study Based on Eastern and Western Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Zhong, Qing; Chen, Qi-Yue; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Huang, Chang-Ming

2018-04-20

The dynamic prognosis of patients who have undergone curative surgery for gastric cancer has yet to be reported. Our objective was to devise an accurate tool for predicting the conditional probability of survival for these patients. We analyzed 11,551 gastric cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Two-thirds of the patients were selected randomly for the development set and one-third for the validation set. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the conditional probability of overall survival and the conditional probability of disease-specific survival, using conditional survival methods. We then applied these nomograms to the 4,001 patients in the database from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China, one of the most active Chinese institutes. The 5-year conditional probability of overall survival of the patients was 41.6% immediately after resection and increased to 52.8%, 68.2%, and 80.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years after gastrectomy. The 5-year conditional probability of disease-specific survival "increased" from 48.9% at the time of gastrectomy to 59.8%, 74.7%, and 85.5% for patients surviving 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Sex; race; age; depth of tumor invasion; lymph node metastasis; and tumor size, site, and grade were associated with overall survival and disease-specific survival (P <.05). Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results validation set, the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.77, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after gastrectomy, respectively. Within the other validation set from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 4,001), the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.76, 0.79, 0.77, and 0.77 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The accuracy of the conditional probability of disease-specific survival model was also favorable. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. Based on the large Eastern and Western data sets, we developed and validated the first conditional nomogram for prediction of conditional probability of survival for patients with gastric cancer to allow consideration of the duration of survivorship. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Journal of Naval Science. Volume 2, Number 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-01-01

has defined a probability distribution function which fits this type of data and forms the basis for statistical analysis of test results (see...Conditions to Assess the Performance of Fire-Resistant Fluids’. Wear, 28 (1974) 29. J.N.S., Vol. 2, No. 1 APPENDIX A Analysis of Fatigue Test Data...used to produce the impulse response and the equipment required for the analysis is relatively simple. The methods that must be used to produce

Development of a New Data Tool for Computing Launch and Landing Availability with Respect to Surface Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, K. Lee; Altino, Karen

2008-01-01

The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch has a long history of expertise in the modeling and computation of statistical launch availabilities with respect to weather conditions. Their existing data analysis product, the Atmospheric Parametric Risk Assessment (APRA) tool, computes launch availability given an input set of vehicle hardware and/or operational weather constraints by calculating the climatological probability of exceeding the specified constraint limits, APRA has been used extensively to provide the Space Shuttle program the ability to estimate impacts that various proposed design modifications would have to overall launch availability. The model accounts for both seasonal and diurnal variability at a single geographic location and provides output probabilities for a single arbitrary launch attempt. Recently, the Shuttle program has shown interest in having additional capabilities added to the APRA model, including analysis of humidity parameters, inclusion of landing site weather to produce landing availability, and concurrent analysis of multiple sites, to assist in operational landing site selection. In addition, the Constellation program has also expressed interest in the APRA tool, and has requested several additional capabilities to address some Constellation-specific issues, both in the specification and verification of design requirements and in the development of operations concepts. The combined scope of the requested capability enhancements suggests an evolution of the model beyond a simple revision process. Development has begun for a new data analysis tool that will satisfy the requests of both programs. This new tool, Probabilities of Atmospheric Conditions and Environmental Risk (PACER), will provide greater flexibility and significantly enhanced functionality compared to the currently existing tool.

Option volatility and the acceleration Lagrangian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Cao, Yang

2014-01-01

This paper develops a volatility formula for option on an asset from an acceleration Lagrangian model and the formula is calibrated with market data. The Black-Scholes model is a simpler case that has a velocity dependent Lagrangian. The acceleration Lagrangian is defined, and the classical solution of the system in Euclidean time is solved by choosing proper boundary conditions. The conditional probability distribution of final position given the initial position is obtained from the transition amplitude. The volatility is the standard deviation of the conditional probability distribution. Using the conditional probability and the path integral method, the martingale condition is applied, and one of the parameters in the Lagrangian is fixed. The call option price is obtained using the conditional probability and the path integral method.

Extreme river flow dependence in Northern Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villoria, M. Franco; Scott, M.; Hoey, T.; Fischbacher-Smith, D.

2012-04-01

Various methods for the spatial analysis of hydrologic data have been developed recently. Here we present results using the conditional probability approach proposed by Keef et al. [Appl. Stat. (2009): 58,601-18] to investigate spatial interdependence in extreme river flows in Scotland. This approach does not require the specification of a correlation function, being mostly suitable for relatively small geographical areas. The work is motivated by the Flood Risk Management Act (Scotland (2009)) which requires maps of flood risk that take account of spatial dependence in extreme river flow. The method is based on two conditional measures of spatial flood risk: firstly the conditional probability PC(p) that a set of sites Y = (Y 1,...,Y d) within a region C of interest exceed a flow threshold Qp at time t (or any lag of t), given that in the specified conditioning site X > Qp; and, secondly the expected number of sites within C that will exceed a flow Qp on average (given that X > Qp). The conditional probabilities are estimated using the conditional distribution of Y |X = x (for large x), which can be modeled using a semi-parametric approach (Heffernan and Tawn [Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B (2004): 66,497-546]). Once the model is fitted, pseudo-samples can be generated to estimate functionals of the joint tails of the distribution of (Y,X). Conditional return level plots were directly compared to traditional return level plots thus improving our understanding of the dependence structure of extreme river flow events. Confidence intervals were calculated using block bootstrapping methods (100 replicates). We report results from applying this approach to a set of four rivers (Dulnain, Lossie, Ewe and Ness) in Northern Scotland. These sites were chosen based on data quality, spatial location and catchment characteristics. The river Ness, being the largest (catchment size 1839.1km2) was chosen as the conditioning river. Both the Ewe (441.1km2) and Ness catchments have predominantly impermeable bedrock, with the Ewe's one being very wet. The Lossie(216km2) and Dulnain (272.2km2) both contain significant areas of glacial deposits. River flow in the Dulnain is usually affected by snowmelt. In all cases, the conditional probability of each of the three rivers (Dulnain, Lossie, Ewe) decreases as the event in the conditioning river (Ness) becomes more extreme. The Ewe, despite being the furthest of the three sites from the Ness shows the strongest dependence, with relatively high (>0.4) conditional probabilities even for very extreme events (>0.995). Although the Lossie is closer geographically to the Ness than the Ewe, it shows relatively low conditional probabilities and can be considered independent of the Ness for very extreme events (> 0.990). The conditional probabilities seem to reflect the different catchment characteristics and dominant precipitation generating events, with the Ewe being more similar to the Ness than the other two rivers. This interpretation suggests that the conditional method may yield improved estimates of extreme events, but the approach is time consuming. An alternative model that is easier to implement, using a spatial quantile regression, is currently being investigated, which would also allow the introduction of further covariates, essential as the effects of climate change are incorporated into estimation procedures.

National Dam Inspection Program. Upper Pigeon Hill Dam. (NDI I.D. Number PA-00340, PennDER I.D. Number 67-5) Susquehanna River Basin, Gitts Run, York County, Pennsylvania. Phase I Inspection Report,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-03-01

recommended guidelines, the Spillway Design Flood (SDF) ranges between the 1 /2-PMF (Probable Maximum Flood) and PMF. Since the dam is near the lower end of...overtopping. A breach analysis indicates that failure under 1 /2-PMF conditions would probably not lead to increased property damage or loss of life at...ii OVERVIEW PHOTOGRAPH ......... .................. V TABLE OF CONTENTS ......... ................... vi SECTION 1 - GENERAL INFORMATION

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions

PubMed Central

Storkel, Holly L.; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-01-01

Purpose Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Method Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. Results The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. Conclusions As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise. PMID:27788276

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions.

PubMed

Han, Min Kyung; Storkel, Holly L; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-11-01

Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise.

Drug and alcohol use and family characteristics: a study among Brazilian high-school students.

PubMed

Carvalho, V; Pinsky, I; De Souza e Silva, R; Carlini-Cotrim, B

1995-01-01

The present work employs a multivariate analysis technique to study, simultaneously, family relations and alcohol/drug consumption among 16,378 Brazilian high-school students. The analysis is centered on the relation between subjective or objective family situations and consumption. Subjective situations are measured by adolescents' perception of their families, that is, the family's environmental "climate"--whether violent situations occur at home, whether there is frequent dialogue about the youngsters' problems, and whether they perceive interest on the part of parents. Objective situations refer to the conjugal status of parents. Results pointed to family violence as the factor most frequently associated with alcohol/drug use behavior. It was also found that the family's environmental climate constitutes a more important factor than the conjugal status of parents, when it comes to the development of drug use behavior. Therefore, the impact of this last variable (whether parents are living together) is determined by environmental conditions: when those conditions are favorable (no violence, problems habitually talked about, parents concerned with their offspring) the fact that parents were effectively living together meant a smaller probability of alcohol/drug use; when these conditions were unfavorable, the same fact was associated with a greater probability of consumption.

GIS-based probability assessment of natural hazards in forested landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Lorz, C; Fürst, C; Galic, Z; Matijasic, D; Podrazky, V; Potocic, N; Simoncic, P; Strauch, M; Vacik, H; Makeschin, F

2010-12-01

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

Exact Identification of a Quantum Change Point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sentís, Gael; Calsamiglia, John; Muñoz-Tapia, Ramon

2017-10-01

The detection of change points is a pivotal task in statistical analysis. In the quantum realm, it is a new primitive where one aims at identifying the point where a source that supposedly prepares a sequence of particles in identical quantum states starts preparing a mutated one. We obtain the optimal procedure to identify the change point with certainty—naturally at the price of having a certain probability of getting an inconclusive answer. We obtain the analytical form of the optimal probability of successful identification for any length of the particle sequence. We show that the conditional success probabilities of identifying each possible change point show an unexpected oscillatory behavior. We also discuss local (online) protocols and compare them with the optimal procedure.

Exact Identification of a Quantum Change Point.

PubMed

Sentís, Gael; Calsamiglia, John; Muñoz-Tapia, Ramon

2017-10-06

The detection of change points is a pivotal task in statistical analysis. In the quantum realm, it is a new primitive where one aims at identifying the point where a source that supposedly prepares a sequence of particles in identical quantum states starts preparing a mutated one. We obtain the optimal procedure to identify the change point with certainty-naturally at the price of having a certain probability of getting an inconclusive answer. We obtain the analytical form of the optimal probability of successful identification for any length of the particle sequence. We show that the conditional success probabilities of identifying each possible change point show an unexpected oscillatory behavior. We also discuss local (online) protocols and compare them with the optimal procedure.

Beginning Bayes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erickson, Tim

2017-01-01

Understanding a Bayesian perspective demands comfort with conditional probability and with probabilities that appear to change as we acquire additional information. This paper suggests a simple context in conditional probability that helps develop the understanding students would need for a successful introduction to Bayesian reasoning.

Reliable evaluation of the quantal determinants of synaptic efficacy using Bayesian analysis

PubMed Central

Beato, M.

2013-01-01

Communication between neurones in the central nervous system depends on synaptic transmission. The efficacy of synapses is determined by pre- and postsynaptic factors that can be characterized using quantal parameters such as the probability of neurotransmitter release, number of release sites, and quantal size. Existing methods of estimating the quantal parameters based on multiple probability fluctuation analysis (MPFA) are limited by their requirement for long recordings to acquire substantial data sets. We therefore devised an algorithm, termed Bayesian Quantal Analysis (BQA), that can yield accurate estimates of the quantal parameters from data sets of as small a size as 60 observations for each of only 2 conditions of release probability. Computer simulations are used to compare its performance in accuracy with that of MPFA, while varying the number of observations and the simulated range in release probability. We challenge BQA with realistic complexities characteristic of complex synapses, such as increases in the intra- or intersite variances, and heterogeneity in release probabilities. Finally, we validate the method using experimental data obtained from electrophysiological recordings to show that the effect of an antagonist on postsynaptic receptors is correctly characterized by BQA by a specific reduction in the estimates of quantal size. Since BQA routinely yields reliable estimates of the quantal parameters from small data sets, it is ideally suited to identify the locus of synaptic plasticity for experiments in which repeated manipulations of the recording environment are unfeasible. PMID:23076101

Outage Analysis of Dual-hop Cognitive Networks with Relay Selection over Nakagami-m Fading Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zongsheng; Pi, Xurong

2014-09-01

In this paper, we investigate the outage performance of decode-and-forward cognitive relay networks for Nakagami-m fading channels, with considering both best relay selection and interference constraints. Focusing on the relay selection and making use of the underlay cognitive approach, an exact closed-form outage probability expression is derived in an independent, non-identical distributed Nakagami-m environment. The closed-form outage probability provides an efficient means to evaluate the effects of the maximum allowable interference power, number of cognitive relays, and channel conditions between the primary user and cognitive users. Finally, we present numerical results to validate the theory analysis. Moreover, from the simulation results, we obtain that the system can obtain the full diversity.

Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

PubMed

Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

2014-01-01

Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions.

Tuberculosis in a South African prison – a transmission modelling analysis

PubMed Central

Johnstone-Robertson, Simon; Lawn, Stephen D; Welte, Alex; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Wood, Robin

2015-01-01

Background Prisons are recognised internationally as institutions with very high tuberculosis (TB) burdens where transmission is predominantly determined by contact between infectious and susceptible prisoners. A recent South African court case described the conditions under which prisoners awaiting trial were kept. With the use of these data, a mathematical model was developed to explore the interactions between incarceration conditions and TB control measures. Methods Cell dimensions, cell occupancy, lock-up time, TB incidence and treatment delays were derived from court evidence and judicial reports. Using the Wells-Riley equation and probability analyses of contact between prisoners, we estimated the current TB transmission probability within prison cells, and estimated transmission probabilities of improved levels of case finding in combination with implementation of national and international minimum standards for incarceration. Results Levels of overcrowding (230%) in communal cells and poor TB case finding result in annual TB transmission risks of 90% per annum. Implementing current national or international cell occupancy recommendations would reduce TB transmission probabilities by 30% and 50%, respectively. Improved passive case finding, modest ventilation increase or decreased lock-up time would minimally impact on transmission if introduced individually. However, active case finding together with implementation of minimum national and international standards of incarceration could reduce transmission by 50% and 94%, respectively. Conclusions Current conditions of detention for awaiting-trial prisoners are highly conducive for spread of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant TB. Combinations of simple well-established scientific control measures should be implemented urgently. PMID:22272961

Conditional power and predictive power based on right censored data with supplementary auxiliary information.

PubMed

Sun, Libo; Wan, Ying

2018-04-22

Conditional power and predictive power provide estimates of the probability of success at the end of the trial based on the information from the interim analysis. The observed value of the time to event endpoint at the interim analysis could be biased for the true treatment effect due to early censoring, leading to a biased estimate of conditional power and predictive power. In such cases, the estimates and inference for this right censored primary endpoint are enhanced by incorporating a fully observed auxiliary variable. We assume a bivariate normal distribution of the transformed primary variable and a correlated auxiliary variable. Simulation studies are conducted that not only shows enhanced conditional power and predictive power but also can provide the framework for a more efficient futility interim analysis in terms of an improved accuracy in estimator, a smaller inflation in type II error and an optimal timing for such analysis. We also illustrated the new approach by a real clinical trial example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, E.; Fiori, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Lombardo, F.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2015-10-01

One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller, the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e., the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.

Capture-recapture studies for multiple strata including non-markovian transitions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.; Hestbeck, J.B.

1993-01-01

We consider capture-recapture studies where release and recapture data are available from each of a number of strata on every capture occasion. Strata may, for example, be geographic locations or physiological states. Movement of animals among strata occurs with unknown probabilities, and estimation of these unknown transition probabilities is the objective. We describe a computer routine for carrying out the analysis under a model that assumes Markovian transitions and under reduced parameter versions of this model. We also introduce models that relax the Markovian assumption and allow 'memory' to operate (i.e., allow dependence of the transition probabilities on the previous state). For these models, we sugg st an analysis based on a conditional likelihood approach. Methods are illustrated with data from a large study on Canada geese (Branta canadensis) banded in three geographic regions. The assumption of Markovian transitions is rejected convincingly for these data, emphasizing the importance of the more general models that allow memory.

An Inverse Problem for a Class of Conditional Probability Measure-Dependent Evolution Equations

PubMed Central

Mirzaev, Inom; Byrne, Erin C.; Bortz, David M.

2016-01-01

We investigate the inverse problem of identifying a conditional probability measure in measure-dependent evolution equations arising in size-structured population modeling. We formulate the inverse problem as a least squares problem for the probability measure estimation. Using the Prohorov metric framework, we prove existence and consistency of the least squares estimates and outline a discretization scheme for approximating a conditional probability measure. For this scheme, we prove general method stability. The work is motivated by Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models of flocculation for which the shape of the post-fragmentation conditional probability measure greatly impacts the solution dynamics. To illustrate our methodology, we apply the theory to a particular PDE model that arises in the study of population dynamics for flocculating bacterial aggregates in suspension, and provide numerical evidence for the utility of the approach. PMID:28316360

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

2018-05-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

Stochastic analysis of particle movement over a dune bed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Baum K.; Jobson, Harvey E.

1977-01-01

Stochastic models are available that can be used to predict the transport and dispersion of bed-material sediment particles in an alluvial channel. These models are based on the proposition that the movement of a single bed-material sediment particle consists of a series of steps of random length separated by rest periods of random duration and, therefore, application of the models requires a knowledge of the probability distributions of the step lengths, the rest periods, the elevation of particle deposition, and the elevation of particle erosion. The procedure was tested by determining distributions from bed profiles formed in a large laboratory flume with a coarse sand as the bed material. The elevation of particle deposition and the elevation of particle erosion can be considered to be identically distributed, and their distribution can be described by either a ' truncated Gaussian ' or a ' triangular ' density function. The conditional probability distribution of the rest period given the elevation of particle deposition closely followed the two-parameter gamma distribution. The conditional probability distribution of the step length given the elevation of particle erosion and the elevation of particle deposition also closely followed the two-parameter gamma density function. For a given flow, the scale and shape parameters describing the gamma probability distributions can be expressed as functions of bed-elevation. (Woodard-USGS)

Estimating inverse-probability weights for longitudinal data with dropout or truncation: The xtrccipw command.

PubMed

Daza, Eric J; Hudgens, Michael G; Herring, Amy H

Individuals may drop out of a longitudinal study, rendering their outcomes unobserved but still well defined. However, they may also undergo truncation (for example, death), beyond which their outcomes are no longer meaningful. Kurland and Heagerty (2005, Biostatistics 6: 241-258) developed a method to conduct regression conditioning on nontruncation, that is, regression conditioning on continuation (RCC), for longitudinal outcomes that are monotonically missing at random (for example, because of dropout). This method first estimates the probability of dropout among continuing individuals to construct inverse-probability weights (IPWs), then fits generalized estimating equations (GEE) with these IPWs. In this article, we present the xtrccipw command, which can both estimate the IPWs required by RCC and then use these IPWs in a GEE estimator by calling the glm command from within xtrccipw. In the absence of truncation, the xtrccipw command can also be used to run a weighted GEE analysis. We demonstrate the xtrccipw command by analyzing an example dataset and the original Kurland and Heagerty (2005) data. We also use xtrccipw to illustrate some empirical properties of RCC through a simulation study.

Estimating inverse-probability weights for longitudinal data with dropout or truncation: The xtrccipw command

PubMed Central

Hudgens, Michael G.; Herring, Amy H.

2017-01-01

Individuals may drop out of a longitudinal study, rendering their outcomes unobserved but still well defined. However, they may also undergo truncation (for example, death), beyond which their outcomes are no longer meaningful. Kurland and Heagerty (2005, Biostatistics 6: 241–258) developed a method to conduct regression conditioning on nontruncation, that is, regression conditioning on continuation (RCC), for longitudinal outcomes that are monotonically missing at random (for example, because of dropout). This method first estimates the probability of dropout among continuing individuals to construct inverse-probability weights (IPWs), then fits generalized estimating equations (GEE) with these IPWs. In this article, we present the xtrccipw command, which can both estimate the IPWs required by RCC and then use these IPWs in a GEE estimator by calling the glm command from within xtrccipw. In the absence of truncation, the xtrccipw command can also be used to run a weighted GEE analysis. We demonstrate the xtrccipw command by analyzing an example dataset and the original Kurland and Heagerty (2005) data. We also use xtrccipw to illustrate some empirical properties of RCC through a simulation study. PMID:29755297

The Effects of Heuristics and Apophenia on Probabilistic Choice.

PubMed

Ellerby, Zack W; Tunney, Richard J

2017-01-01

Given a repeated choice between two or more options with independent and identically distributed reward probabilities, overall pay-offs can be maximized by the exclusive selection of the option with the greatest likelihood of reward. The tendency to match response proportions to reward contingencies is suboptimal. Nevertheless, this behaviour is well documented. A number of explanatory accounts have been proposed for probability matching. These include failed pattern matching, driven by apophenia, and a heuristic-driven response that can be overruled with sufficient deliberation. We report two experiments that were designed to test the relative effects on choice behaviour of both an intuitive versus strategic approach to the task and belief that there was a predictable pattern in the reward sequence, through a combination of both direct experimental manipulation and post-experimental self-report. Mediation analysis was used to model the pathways of effects. Neither of two attempted experimental manipulations of apophenia, nor self-reported levels of apophenia, had a significant effect on proportions of maximizing choices. However, the use of strategy over intuition proved a consistent predictor of maximizing, across all experimental conditions. A parallel analysis was conducted to assess the effect of controlling for individual variance in perceptions of reward contingencies. Although this analysis suggested that apophenia did increase probability matching in the standard task preparation, this effect was found to result from an unforeseen relationship between self-reported apophenia and perceived reward probabilities. A Win-Stay Lose-Shift (WSLS ) analysis indicated no reliable relationship between WSLS and either intuition or strategy use.

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

PubMed

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

2015-02-01

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J.

2017-08-01

Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reliability of Long-Term Wave Conditions Predicted with Data Sets of Short Duration

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

the validity and reliability of predicted probable wave heights obtained from data of limited duration. BACKGROUND: The basic steps listed by...interest to perform the analysis outlined in steps 2 to 5, the prediction would only be reliable for up to a 3year return period. For a 5-year data set...for long-term hindcast data . The data retrieval and analysis program known as the Sea State Engineering Analysis System (SEAS) makes handling of the

Particle deposition due to turbulent diffusion in the upper respiratory system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamill, P.

1979-01-01

Aerosol deposition in the upper respiratory system (trachea to segmental bronchi) is considered and the importance of turbulent diffusion as a deposition mechanism is evaluated. It is demonstrated that for large particles (diameter greater than about 5 microns), turbulent diffusion is the dominant deposition mechanism in the trachea. Conditions under which turbulent diffusion may be important in successive generations of the pulmonary system are determined. The probability of particle deposition is compared with probabilities of deposition, as determined by the equations generally used in regional deposition models. The analysis is theoretical; no new experimental data is presented.

Updating: Learning versus Supposing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Jiaying; Crupi, Vincenzo; Tentori, Katya; Fitelson, Branden; Osherson, Daniel

2012-01-01

Bayesian orthodoxy posits a tight relationship between conditional probability and updating. Namely, the probability of an event "A" after learning "B" should equal the conditional probability of "A" given "B" prior to learning "B". We examine whether ordinary judgment conforms to the orthodox view. In three experiments we found substantial…

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices

PubMed Central

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G.; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N. C.; Binkofski, Ferdinand C.; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R.

2014-01-01

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music—happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones—and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the “happy” than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the “happy” condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting. PMID:24432007

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices.

PubMed

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N C; Binkofski, Ferdinand C; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R

2014-01-07

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music-happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones-and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the "happy" than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the "happy" condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting.

Probability in reasoning: a developmental test on conditionals.

PubMed

Barrouillet, Pierre; Gauffroy, Caroline

2015-04-01

Probabilistic theories have been claimed to constitute a new paradigm for the psychology of reasoning. A key assumption of these theories is captured by what they call the Equation, the hypothesis that the meaning of the conditional is probabilistic in nature and that the probability of If p then q is the conditional probability, in such a way that P(if p then q)=P(q|p). Using the probabilistic truth-table task in which participants are required to evaluate the probability of If p then q sentences, the present study explored the pervasiveness of the Equation through ages (from early adolescence to adulthood), types of conditionals (basic, causal, and inducements) and contents. The results reveal that the Equation is a late developmental achievement only endorsed by a narrow majority of educated adults for certain types of conditionals depending on the content they involve. Age-related changes in evaluating the probability of all the conditionals studied closely mirror the development of truth-value judgements observed in previous studies with traditional truth-table tasks. We argue that our modified mental model theory can account for this development, and hence for the findings related with the probability task, which do not consequently support the probabilistic approach of human reasoning over alternative theories. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parsimonious nonstationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serago, Jake M.; Vogel, Richard M.

2018-02-01

There is now widespread awareness of the impact of anthropogenic influences on extreme floods (and droughts) and thus an increasing need for methods to account for such influences when estimating a frequency distribution. We introduce a parsimonious approach to nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NFFA) based on a bivariate regression equation which describes the relationship between annual maximum floods, x, and an exogenous variable which may explain the nonstationary behavior of x. The conditional mean, variance and skewness of both x and y = ln (x) are derived, and combined with numerous common probability distributions including the lognormal, generalized extreme value and log Pearson type III models, resulting in a very simple and general approach to NFFA. Our approach offers several advantages over existing approaches including: parsimony, ease of use, graphical display, prediction intervals, and opportunities for uncertainty analysis. We introduce nonstationary probability plots and document how such plots can be used to assess the improved goodness of fit associated with a NFFA.

On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pipień, M.

2008-09-01

We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

Identification and analysis of student conceptions used to solve chemical equilibrium problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voska, Kirk William

This study identified and quantified chemistry conceptions students use when solving chemical equilibrium problems requiring the application of Le Chatelier's principle, and explored the feasibility of designing a paper and pencil test for this purpose. It also demonstrated the utility of conditional probabilities to assess test quality. A 10-item pencil-and-paper, two-tier diagnostic instrument, the Test to Identify Student Conceptualizations (TISC) was developed and administered to 95 second-semester university general chemistry students after they received regular course instruction concerning equilibrium in homogeneous aqueous, heterogeneous aqueous, and homogeneous gaseous systems. The content validity of TISC was established through a review of TISC by a panel of experts; construct validity was established through semi-structured interviews and conditional probabilities. Nine students were then selected from a stratified random sample for interviews to validate TISC. The probability that TISC correctly identified an answer given by a student in an interview was p = .64, while the probability that TISC correctly identified a reason given by a student in an interview was p=.49. Each TISC item contained two parts. In the first part the student selected the correct answer to a problem from a set of four choices. In the second part students wrote reasons for their answer to the first part. TISC questions were designed to identify students' conceptions concerning the application of Le Chatelier's principle, the constancy of the equilibrium constant, K, and the effect of a catalyst. Eleven prevalent incorrect conceptions were identified. This study found students consistently selected correct answers more frequently (53% of the time) than they provided correct reasons (33% of the time). The association between student answers and respective reasons on each TISC item was quantified using conditional probabilities calculated from logistic regression coefficients. The probability a student provided correct reasoning (B) when the student selected a correct answer (A) ranged from P(B| A) =.32 to P(B| A) =.82. However, the probability a student selected a correct answer when they provided correct reasoning ranged from P(A| B) =.96 to P(A| B) = 1. The K-R 20 reliability for TISC was found to be.79.

Activation timing of postural muscles of lower legs and prediction of postural disturbance during bilateral arm flexion in older adults.

PubMed

Yaguchi, Chie; Fujiwara, Katsuo; Kiyota, Naoe

2017-12-22

Activation timings of postural muscles of lower legs and prediction of postural disturbance were investigated in young and older adults during bilateral arm flexion in a self-timing task and an oddball task with different probabilities of target presentation. Arm flexion was started from a standing posture with hands suspended 10 cm below the horizontal level in front of the body, in which postural control focused on the ankles is important. Fourteen young and 14 older adults raised the arms in response to the target sound signal. Three task conditions were used: 15 and 45% probabilities of the target in the oddball task and self-timing. Analysis items were activation timing of postural muscles (erector spinae, biceps femoris, and gastrocnemius) with respect to the anterior deltoid (AD), and latency and amplitude of the P300 component of event-related brain potential. For young adults, all postural muscles were activated significantly earlier than AD under each condition, and time of preceding gastrocnemius activation was significantly longer in the order of the self-timing, 45 and 15% conditions. P300 latency was significantly shorter, and P300 amplitude was significantly smaller under the 45% condition than under the 15% condition. For older adults, although all postural muscles, including gastrocnemius, were activated significantly earlier than AD in the self-timing condition, only activation timing of gastrocnemius was not significantly earlier than that of AD in oddball tasks, regardless of target probability. No significant differences were found between 15 and 45% conditions in onset times of all postural muscles, and latency and amplitude of P300. These results suggest that during arm movement, young adults can achieve sufficient postural preparation in proportion to the probability of target presentation in the oddball task. Older adults can achieve postural control using ankle joints in the self-timing task. However, in the oddball task, older adults experience difficulty predicting the timing of target presentation, which could be related to deteriorated cognitive function, resulting in reduced use of the ankle joints for postural control.

Assessment of Probable Future Land Use and Habitat Conditions in Water Resources Planning.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

R. Varney, and F. C. Craighead, Jr. 1974. A population analysis of the Yellowstone grizzly bears. Montana Forest Conservation Experiment Station Bull...34The wolves of Isle Royale." University of Georgia, Contributions in Systems Ecology. No. 5. Sargent, F. 0. and P. R. Berke. 1979. Planning undeveloped

Mathematical Analysis of a Multiple-Look Concept Identification Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cotton, John W.

The behavior of focus samples central to the multiple-look model of Trabasso and Bower is examined by three methods. First, exact probabilities of success conditional upon a certain brief history of stimulation are determined. Second, possible states of the organism during the experiment are defined and a transition matrix for those states…

Thunderstorm Research International Program (TRIP 77) report to management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taiani, A. J.

1977-01-01

A post analysis of the previous day's weather, followed by the day's forecast and an outlook on weather conditions for the following day is given. The normal NOAA weather charts were used, complemented by the latest GOES satellite pictures, the latest rawinsonde sounding, and the computer-derived thunderstorm probability forecasts associated with the sounding.

Modeling Conditional Probabilities in Complex Educational Assessments. CSE Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mislevy, Robert J.; Almond, Russell; Dibello, Lou; Jenkins, Frank; Steinberg, Linda; Yan, Duanli; Senturk, Deniz

An active area in psychometric research is coordinated task design and statistical analysis built around cognitive models. Compared with classical test theory and item response theory, there is often less information from observed data about the measurement-model parameters. On the other hand, there is more information from the grounding…

Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

PubMed

Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2012-11-01

Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Predictive probability methods for interim monitoring in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes.

PubMed

Zhou, Ming; Tang, Qi; Lang, Lixin; Xing, Jun; Tatsuoka, Kay

2018-04-17

In clinical research and development, interim monitoring is critical for better decision-making and minimizing the risk of exposing patients to possible ineffective therapies. For interim futility or efficacy monitoring, predictive probability methods are widely adopted in practice. Those methods have been well studied for univariate variables. However, for longitudinal studies, predictive probability methods using univariate information from only completers may not be most efficient, and data from on-going subjects can be utilized to improve efficiency. On the other hand, leveraging information from on-going subjects could allow an interim analysis to be potentially conducted once a sufficient number of subjects reach an earlier time point. For longitudinal outcomes, we derive closed-form formulas for predictive probabilities, including Bayesian predictive probability, predictive power, and conditional power and also give closed-form solutions for predictive probability of success in a future trial and the predictive probability of success of the best dose. When predictive probabilities are used for interim monitoring, we study their distributions and discuss their analytical cutoff values or stopping boundaries that have desired operating characteristics. We show that predictive probabilities utilizing all longitudinal information are more efficient for interim monitoring than that using information from completers only. To illustrate their practical application for longitudinal data, we analyze 2 real data examples from clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

PubMed

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

Improving the Performance of Heat Insulation Polyurethane Foams by Silica Nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikje, M. M. Alavi; Garmarudi, A. Bagheri; Haghshenas, M.; Mazaheri, Z.

Heat insulation polyurethane foam materials were doped by silica nano particles, to investigate the probable improving effects. In order to achieve the best dispersion condition and compatibility of silica nanoparticles in the polymer matrix a modification step was performed by 3-aminopropyltriethoxysilane (APTS) as coupling agent. Then, thermal and mechanical properties of polyurethane rigid foam were investigated. Thermal and mechanical properties were studied by tensile machine, thermogravimetric analysis and dynamic mechanical analysis.

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, Timothy; Lanfear, K.J.

1982-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method of route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occured), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, T.; Lanfear, K.J.

1980-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method and route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occurred), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

Stochastic Analysis of Wind Energy for Wind Pump Irrigation in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, M. M.; Kumar, A.; Bisht, D.; Rao, D. B.

2014-09-01

The rapid escalation in the prices of oil and gas as well as increasing demand for energy has attracted the attention of scientists and researchers to explore the possibility of generating and utilizing the alternative and renewable sources of wind energy in the long coastal belt of India with considerable wind energy resources. A detailed analysis of wind potential is a prerequisite to harvest the wind energy resources efficiently. Keeping this in view, the present study was undertaken to analyze the wind energy potential to assess feasibility of the wind-pump operated irrigation system in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh, India, where high ground water table conditions are available. The stochastic analysis of wind speed data were tested to fit a probability distribution, which describes the wind energy potential in the region. The normal and Weibull probability distributions were tested; and on the basis of Chi square test, the Weibull distribution gave better results. Hence, it was concluded that the Weibull probability distribution may be used to stochastically describe the annual wind speed data of coastal Andhra Pradesh with better accuracy. The size as well as the complete irrigation system with mass curve analysis was determined to satisfy various daily irrigation demands at different risk levels.

Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Kirsch, Joseph E.; Hendrix, A. Noble

2016-06-17

Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for many species, our improved sampling design and analysis could provide significant improvements in density and abundance estimation.

Estimation of the probability of success in petroleum exploration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J.C.

1977-01-01

A probabilistic model for oil exploration can be developed by assessing the conditional relationship between perceived geologic variables and the subsequent discovery of petroleum. Such a model includes two probabilistic components, the first reflecting the association between a geologic condition (structural closure, for example) and the occurrence of oil, and the second reflecting the uncertainty associated with the estimation of geologic variables in areas of limited control. Estimates of the conditional relationship between geologic variables and subsequent production can be found by analyzing the exploration history of a "training area" judged to be geologically similar to the exploration area. The geologic variables are assessed over the training area using an historical subset of the available data, whose density corresponds to the present control density in the exploration area. The success or failure of wells drilled in the training area subsequent to the time corresponding to the historical subset provides empirical estimates of the probability of success conditional upon geology. Uncertainty in perception of geological conditions may be estimated from the distribution of errors made in geologic assessment using the historical subset of control wells. These errors may be expressed as a linear function of distance from available control. Alternatively, the uncertainty may be found by calculating the semivariogram of the geologic variables used in the analysis: the two procedures will yield approximately equivalent results. The empirical probability functions may then be transferred to the exploration area and used to estimate the likelihood of success of specific exploration plays. These estimates will reflect both the conditional relationship between the geological variables used to guide exploration and the uncertainty resulting from lack of control. The technique is illustrated with case histories from the mid-Continent area of the U.S.A. ?? 1977 Plenum Publishing Corp.

[Overweight and obesity in schoolchildren from Brandsen and its relationship with socio-environmental characteristics of residence].

PubMed

Cesani, María F; Luis, María A; Torres, María F; Castro, Luis E; Quintero, Fabián A; Luna, María E; Bergel, María L; Oyhenart, Evelia E

2010-08-01

Environmental factors play an important role in the etiology of overweight (S) and obesity (O), constituting the "obesogenic environment". The objectives of the present study are: a) to estimate overweight and obesity prevalences in 3 to 14 years-old schoolchildren from Brandsen (Provincia de Buenos Aires), and b) to analyze the probability of occurrence of overweight and obesity in relation to the socioenvironmental conditions of resident. Weight and height were measured in 989 boys and girls aged 3 to 14 years. S and O were estimated following the criteria suggested by the International Obesity Task Force. The prevalences of S and O were compared between genders and ages. The socio- environmental information was gathered according to surveys and processed by Categorical Principal Components Analysis (catPCA). Generalized Linear Model (link logit) against the variables S and O was employed. S was found in 15,8% of schoolchildren and O in 7,2%. None significative statistics differences between both genders and ages, were found. The first axis of the catPCA discriminated the cases that presented better socio-environmental conditions with positive values and those with more unfavorable conditions with negatives values. Higher probability of obese children was associated with better socio-environmental conditions (higher educational level of parents, higher income and better access to public services), and higher probability of overweight children was associated with less favored environments. The schoolchildren population of Brandsen presents high overweight and obesity prevalences. The chance of presenting overweight is higher in children from households with adverse socio-environmental conditions. On the contrary, obese children are to be more found in households which have more favorable socio-environmental conditions.

Dissociable Neural Processes Underlying Risky Decisions for Self Versus Other

PubMed Central

Jung, Daehyun; Sul, Sunhae; Kim, Hackjin

2013-01-01

Previous neuroimaging studies on decision making have mainly focused on decisions on behalf of oneself. Considering that people often make decisions on behalf of others, it is intriguing that there is little neurobiological evidence on how decisions for others differ from those for oneself. The present study directly compared risky decisions for self with those for another person using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were asked to perform a gambling task on behalf of themselves (decision-for-self condition) or another person (decision-for-other condition) while in the scanner. Their task was to choose between a low-risk option (i.e., win or lose 10 points) and a high-risk option (i.e., win or lose 90 points) with variable levels of winning probability. Compared with choices regarding others, those regarding oneself were more risk-averse at lower winning probabilities and more risk-seeking at higher winning probabilities, perhaps due to stronger affective process during risky decisions for oneself compared with those for other. The brain-activation pattern changed according to the target, such that reward-related regions were more active in the decision-for-self condition than in the decision-for-other condition, whereas brain regions related to the theory of mind (ToM) showed greater activation in the decision-for-other condition than in the decision-for-self condition. Parametric modulation analysis using individual decision models revealed that activation of the amygdala and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) were associated with value computations for oneself and for another, respectively, during risky financial decisions. The results of the present study suggest that decisions for oneself and for other may recruit fundamentally distinct neural processes, which can be mainly characterized as dominant affective/impulsive and cognitive/regulatory processes, respectively. PMID:23519016

Conditional, Time-Dependent Probabilities for Segmented Type-A Faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Gupta, Vipin

2008-01-01

This appendix presents elastic-rebound-theory (ERT) motivated time-dependent probabilities, conditioned on the date of last earthquake, for the segmented type-A fault models of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). These probabilities are included as one option in the WGCEP?s Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF 2), with the other options being time-independent Poisson probabilities and an ?Empirical? model based on observed seismicity rate changes. A more general discussion of the pros and cons of all methods for computing time-dependent probabilities, as well as the justification of those chosen for UCERF 2, are given in the main body of this report (and the 'Empirical' model is also discussed in Appendix M). What this appendix addresses is the computation of conditional, time-dependent probabilities when both single- and multi-segment ruptures are included in the model. Computing conditional probabilities is relatively straightforward when a fault is assumed to obey strict segmentation in the sense that no multi-segment ruptures occur (e.g., WGCEP (1988, 1990) or see Field (2007) for a review of all previous WGCEPs; from here we assume basic familiarity with conditional probability calculations). However, and as we?ll see below, the calculation is not straightforward when multi-segment ruptures are included, in essence because we are attempting to apply a point-process model to a non point process. The next section gives a review and evaluation of the single- and multi-segment rupture probability-calculation methods used in the most recent statewide forecast for California (WGCEP UCERF 1; Petersen et al., 2007). We then present results for the methodology adopted here for UCERF 2. We finish with a discussion of issues and possible alternative approaches that could be explored and perhaps applied in the future. A fault-by-fault comparison of UCERF 2 probabilities with those of previous studies is given in the main part of this report.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system structural components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.

1987-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system structural components (PSAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.; Burnside, O. H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Polch, E. Z.; Dias, J. B.

1988-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

The Formalism of Generalized Contexts and Decay Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losada, Marcelo; Laura, Roberto

2013-04-01

The formalism of generalized contexts for quantum histories is used to investigate the possibility to consider the survival probability as the probability of no decay property at a given time conditional to no decay property at an earlier time. A negative result is found for an isolated system. The inclusion of two quantum measurement instruments at two different times makes possible to interpret the survival probability as a conditional probability of the whole system.

A regulation probability model-based meta-analysis of multiple transcriptomics data sets for cancer biomarker identification.

PubMed

Xie, Xin-Ping; Xie, Yu-Feng; Wang, Hong-Qiang

2017-08-23

Large-scale accumulation of omics data poses a pressing challenge of integrative analysis of multiple data sets in bioinformatics. An open question of such integrative analysis is how to pinpoint consistent but subtle gene activity patterns across studies. Study heterogeneity needs to be addressed carefully for this goal. This paper proposes a regulation probability model-based meta-analysis, jGRP, for identifying differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The method integrates multiple transcriptomics data sets in a gene regulatory space instead of in a gene expression space, which makes it easy to capture and manage data heterogeneity across studies from different laboratories or platforms. Specifically, we transform gene expression profiles into a united gene regulation profile across studies by mathematically defining two gene regulation events between two conditions and estimating their occurring probabilities in a sample. Finally, a novel differential expression statistic is established based on the gene regulation profiles, realizing accurate and flexible identification of DEGs in gene regulation space. We evaluated the proposed method on simulation data and real-world cancer datasets and showed the effectiveness and efficiency of jGRP in identifying DEGs identification in the context of meta-analysis. Data heterogeneity largely influences the performance of meta-analysis of DEGs identification. Existing different meta-analysis methods were revealed to exhibit very different degrees of sensitivity to study heterogeneity. The proposed method, jGRP, can be a standalone tool due to its united framework and controllable way to deal with study heterogeneity.

Variation of fan tone steadiness for several inflow conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balombin, J. R.

1978-01-01

An amplitude probability density function analysis technique for quantifying the degree of fan noise tone steadiness has been applied to data from a fan tested under a variety of inflow conditions. The test conditions included typical static operation, inflow control by a honeycomb/screen device and forward velocity in a wind tunnel simulating flight. The ratio of mean square sinusoidal-to-random signal content in the fundamental and second harmonic tones was found to vary by more than an order-of-magnitude. Some implications of these results concerning the nature of fan noise generation mechanisms are discussed.

Guidelines for Use of the Approximate Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model.

PubMed

Xie, Gang; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Dunn, Peter K; Mengersen, Kerrie

2017-07-01

For dose-response analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), the exact beta-Poisson model is a two-parameter mechanistic dose-response model with parameters α>0 and β>0, which involves the Kummer confluent hypergeometric function. Evaluation of a hypergeometric function is a computational challenge. Denoting PI(d) as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, the widely used dose-response model PI(d)=1-(1+dβ)-α is an approximate formula for the exact beta-Poisson model. Notwithstanding the required conditions α<β and β>1, issues related to the validity and approximation accuracy of this approximate formula have remained largely ignored in practice, partly because these conditions are too general to provide clear guidance. Consequently, this study proposes a probability measure Pr(0 < r < 1 | α̂, β̂) as a validity measure (r is a random variable that follows a gamma distribution; α̂ and β̂ are the maximum likelihood estimates of α and β in the approximate model); and the constraint conditions β̂>(22α̂)0.50 for 0.02<α̂<2 as a rule of thumb to ensure an accurate approximation (e.g., Pr(0 < r < 1 | α̂, β̂) >0.99) . This validity measure and rule of thumb were validated by application to all the completed beta-Poisson models (related to 85 data sets) from the QMRA community portal (QMRA Wiki). The results showed that the higher the probability Pr(0 < r < 1 | α̂, β̂), the better the approximation. The results further showed that, among the total 85 models examined, 68 models were identified as valid approximate model applications, which all had a near perfect match to the corresponding exact beta-Poisson model dose-response curve. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of Gas Phase Dispersion in Flotation under Predetermined Hydrodynamic Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Młynarczykowska, Anna; Oleksik, Konrad; Tupek-Murowany, Klaudia

2018-03-01

Results of various investigations shows the relationship between the flotation parameters and gas distribution in a flotation cell. The size of gas bubbles is a random variable with a specific distribution. The analysis of this distribution is useful to make mathematical description of the flotation process. The flotation process depends on many variable factors. These are mainly occurrences like collision of single particle with gas bubble, adhesion of particle to the surface of bubble and detachment process. These factors are characterized by randomness. Because of that it is only possible to talk about the probability of occurence of one of these events which directly affects the speed of the process, thus a constant speed of flotation process. Probability of the bubble-particle collision in the flotation chamber with mechanical pulp agitation depends on the surface tension of the solution, air consumption, degree of pul aeration, energy dissipation and average feed particle size. Appropriate identification and description of the parameters of the dispersion of gas bubbles helps to complete the analysis of the flotation process in a specific physicochemical conditions and hydrodynamic for any raw material. The article presents the results of measurements and analysis of the gas phase dispersion by the size distribution of air bubbles in a flotation chamber under fixed hydrodynamic conditions. The tests were carried out in the Laboratory of Instrumental Methods in Department of Environmental Engineering and Mineral Processing, Faculty of Mining and Geoengineerin, AGH Univeristy of Science and Technology in Krakow.

Using dynamic geometry software for teaching conditional probability with area-proportional Venn diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas

2012-10-01

This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships, describe the quantitative relationship between two sets. The second feature is the slider and animation component of dynamic geometry software enabling students to observe how the change in the base rate of an event influences conditional probability. A hypothetical instructional sequence using a well-known breast cancer example is described.

The World According to de Finetti: On de Finetti's Theory of Probability and Its Application to Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkovitz, Joseph

Bruno de Finetti is one of the founding fathers of the subjectivist school of probability, where probabilities are interpreted as rational degrees of belief. His work on the relation between the theorems of probability and rationality is among the corner stones of modern subjective probability theory. De Finetti maintained that rationality requires that degrees of belief be coherent, and he argued that the whole of probability theory could be derived from these coherence conditions. De Finetti's interpretation of probability has been highly influential in science. This paper focuses on the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics. We argue that de Finetti held that the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events depend on their verifiability. Accordingly, the standard coherence conditions of degrees of belief that are familiar from the literature on subjective probability only apply to degrees of belief in events which could (in principle) be jointly verified; and the coherence conditions of degrees of belief in events that cannot be jointly verified are weaker. While the most obvious explanation of de Finetti's verificationism is the influence of positivism, we argue that it could be motivated by the radical subjectivist and instrumental nature of probability in his interpretation; for as it turns out, in this interpretation it is difficult to make sense of the idea of coherent degrees of belief in, and accordingly probabilities of unverifiable events. We then consider the application of this interpretation to quantum mechanics, concentrating on the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen experiment and Bell's theorem.

Urban sprawl and delayed ambulance arrival in the U.S.

PubMed

Trowbridge, Matthew J; Gurka, Matthew J; O'Connor, Robert E

2009-11-01

Minimizing emergency medical service (EMS) response time is a central objective of prehospital care, yet the potential influence of built environment features such as urban sprawl on EMS system performance is often not considered. This study measures the association between urban sprawl and EMS response time to test the hypothesis that features of sprawling development increase the probability of delayed ambulance arrival. In 2008, EMS response times for 43,424 motor-vehicle crashes were obtained from the Fatal Analysis Reporting System, a national census of crashes involving > or =1 fatality. Sprawl at each crash location was measured using a continuous county-level index previously developed by Ewing et al. The association between sprawl and the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival (> or =8 minutes) was then measured using generalized linear mixed modeling to account for correlation among crashes from the same county. Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival (p=0.03). This probability increases quadratically as the severity of sprawl increases while controlling for nighttime crash occurrence, road conditions, and presence of construction. For example, in sprawling counties (e.g., Fayette County GA), the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival for daytime crashes in dry conditions without construction was 69% (95% CI=66%, 72%) compared with 31% (95% CI=28%, 35%) in counties with prominent smart-growth characteristics (e.g., Delaware County PA). Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival following motor-vehicle crashes in the U.S. The results of this study suggest that promotion of community design and development that follows smart-growth principles and regulates urban sprawl may improve EMS performance and reliability.

Effects of osteoporosis on AIS 3+ injury risk in motor-vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Hoff, Carrie N; Cunningham, Rebecca M

2010-11-01

Older occupants in motor-vehicle crashes are more likely to experience injury than younger occupants. One possible reason for this is that increasing age is associated with increased prevalence of osteoporosis, which decreases bone strength. Crash-injury data were used with Bayes' Theorem to estimate the conditional probability of AIS 3+ skeletal injury given that an occupant is osteoporotic for the injury to the head, spine, thorax, lower extremities, and upper extremities. This requires the conditional probabilities of osteoporosis given AIS 3+ injury for each of the body regions, which were determined from analysis of the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network database. It also requires information on probability of osteoporosis in the crash-involved population and the probabilities of AIS 3+ skeletal injury to different body regions in crashes. The latter probabilities were obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) database. The former was obtained by modeling the probability of osteoporosis in the US populations using data from the 2006 National Health Examination Nutrition Survey and applying this model to the estimate of the crash-involved population in NASS-CDS. To attempt to account for the effects of age on injury outcome that are independent of osteoporosis, only data from occupants who were 60 years of age or older were used in all analyses. Results indicate that the only body region that experiences a statistically significant change in fracture injury risk with osteoporosis is the spine, for which osteoporosis increases the risk of AIS 3+ fracture by 3.28 times, or from 0.41% to 1.34% (p<0.0001). This finding suggests that the increase in AIS 3+ injury risk with age for non-spine injuries is likely influenced by factors other than osteoporosis. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

PubMed Central

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. Results When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Conclusions Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing. PMID:27004080

Effect of drain current on appearance probability and amplitude of random telegraph noise in low-noise CMOS image sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichino, Shinya; Mawaki, Takezo; Teramoto, Akinobu; Kuroda, Rihito; Park, Hyeonwoo; Wakashima, Shunichi; Goto, Tetsuya; Suwa, Tomoyuki; Sugawa, Shigetoshi

2018-04-01

Random telegraph noise (RTN), which occurs in in-pixel source follower (SF) transistors, has become one of the most critical problems in high-sensitivity CMOS image sensors (CIS) because it is a limiting factor of dark random noise. In this paper, the behaviors of RTN toward changes in SF drain current conditions were analyzed using a low-noise array test circuit measurement system with a floor noise of 35 µV rms. In addition to statistical analysis by measuring a large number of transistors (18048 transistors), we also analyzed the behaviors of RTN parameters such as amplitude and time constants in the individual transistors. It is demonstrated that the appearance probability of RTN becomes small under a small drain current condition, although large-amplitude RTN tends to appear in a very small number of cells.

Pyrotechnic hazards classification and evaluation program. Phase 2, segment 3: Test plan for determining hazards associated with pyrotechnic manufacturing processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

A comprehensive test plan for determining the hazards associated with pyrotechnic manufacturing processes is presented. The rationale for each test is based on a systematic analysis of historical accounts of accidents and a detailed study of the characteristics of each manufacturing process. The most hazardous manufacturing operations have been determined to be pressing, mixing, reaming, and filling. The hazard potential of a given situation is evaluated in terms of the probabilities of initiation, communication, and transition to detonation (ICT). The characteristics which affect the ICT probabilities include the ignition mechanisms which are present either in normal or abnormal operation, the condition and properties of the pyrotechnic material, and the configuration of the processing equipment. Analytic expressions are derived which describe the physical conditions of the system, thus permitting a variety of processes to be evaluated in terms of a small number of experiments.

Focused sunlight factor of forest fire danger assessment using Web-GIS and RS technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranovskiy, Nikolay V.; Sherstnyov, Vladislav S.; Yankovich, Elena P.; Engel, Marina V.; Belov, Vladimir V.

2016-08-01

Timiryazevskiy forestry of Tomsk region (Siberia, Russia) is a study area elaborated in current research. Forest fire danger assessment is based on unique technology using probabilistic criterion, statistical data on forest fires, meteorological conditions, forest sites classification and remote sensing data. MODIS products are used for estimating some meteorological conditions and current forest fire situation. Geonformation technologies are used for geospatial analysis of forest fire danger situation on controlled forested territories. GIS-engine provides opportunities to construct electronic maps with different levels of forest fire probability and support raster layer for satellite remote sensing data on current forest fires. Web-interface is used for data loading on specific web-site and for forest fire danger data representation via World Wide Web. Special web-forms provide interface for choosing of relevant input data in order to process the forest fire danger data and assess the forest fire probability.

Atmospheric turbulence review of space shuttle launches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susko, Michael

1991-01-01

Research and analysis on the identification of turbulent regions from the surface to 16 km during Space Shuttle launches are discussed. It was demonstrated that the results from the FPS-16 radar/jimsphere balloon system in measuring winds can indeed indicate the presence or conditions ripe for turbulence in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. It was further demonstrated that atmospheric data obtained during the shuttle launches by the rawinsonde in conjunction with the jimsphere provides the necessary meteorological data to compute aerodynamic parameters to identify turbulence, such as Reynolds number drag coefficient, turbulent stresses, total energy, stability parameter, vertical gradient of kinetic energy, Richardson number, and the turbulence probability index. Enhanced temperature lapse rates and inversion rates, strong vector wind shears, and large changes in wind direction identify the occurrence of turbulence at the troposphere. When any two of the above conditions occur simultaneously, a significant probability of turbulence can occur.

Exploring the link between ambulatory care and avoidable hospitalizations at the Veteran Health Administration.

PubMed

Pracht, Etienne E; Bass, Elizabeth

2011-01-01

This paper explores the link between utilization of ambulatory care and the likelihood of rehospitalization for an avoidable reason in veterans served by the Veteran Health Administration (VA). The analysis used administrative data containing healthcare utilization and patient characteristics stored at the national VA data warehouse, the Corporate Franchise Data Center. The study sample consisted of 284 veterans residing in Florida who had been hospitalized at least once for an avoidable reason. A bivariate probit model with instrumental variables was used to estimate the probability of rehospitalization. Veterans who had at least 1 ambulatory care visit per month experienced a significant reduction in the probability of rehospitalization for the same avoidable hospitalization condition. The findings suggest that ambulatory care can serve as an important substitute for more expensive hospitalization for the conditions characterized as avoidable. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

Dam failure analysis for the Lago El Guineo Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gómez-Fragoso, Julieta; Heriberto Torres-Sierra,

2016-08-09

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. The Lago El Guineo Dam is within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí and impounds a drainage area of about 4.25 square kilometers.The hydrologic assessment was designed to determine the outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago El Guineo and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation event, (2) a 24-hour probable maximum precipitation event, and (3) a 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated a dam failure of Lago El Guineo Dam using flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study. The simulated dam failure generated a hydrograph that was routed downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam through the lower reaches of the Río Toro Negro and the Río Grande de Manatí to determine water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” conditions. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was completed using the unsteady flow module available in the HEC–RAS model.Above the Lago El Guineo Dam, the simulated inflow peak discharges from HEC–HMS resulted in about 550 and 414 cubic meters per second for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events, respectively. The 24-hour, 100-year recurrence storm simulation resulted in a peak discharge of about 216 cubic meters per second. For the hydrologic analysis, no dam failure conditions are considered within the model. The results of the hydrologic simulations indicated that for all hydrologic conditions scenarios, the Lago El Guineo Dam would not experience overtopping. For the dam breach hydraulic analysis, failure by piping was the selected hypothetical failure mode for the Lago El Guineo Dam.Results from the simulated dam failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam using the HEC–RAS model for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events indicated peak discharges below the dam of 1,342.43 and 1,434.69 cubic meters per second, respectively. Dam failure during the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event resulted in a peak discharge directly downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,183.12 cubic meters per second. Dam failure during sunny-day conditions (no precipitation) produced a peak discharge at Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,015.31 cubic meters per second assuming the initial water-surface elevation was at the morning-glory spillway invert elevation.The results of the hydraulic analysis indicate that the flood would extend to many inhabited areas along the stream banks from the Lago El Guineo Dam to the mouth of the Río Grande as a result of the simulated failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Low-lying regions in the vicinity of Ciales, Manatí, and Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, are among the regions that would be most affected by failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Effects of the flood control (levee) structure constructed in 2000 to provide protection to the low-lying populated areas of Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, were considered in the hydraulic analysis of dam failure. The results indicate that overtopping can be expected in the aforementioned levee during 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events. The levee was not overtopped during dam failure scenarios under the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event or sunny-day conditions.

Conservative Analytical Collision Probabilities for Orbital Formation Flying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Conservative Analytical Collision Probability for Design of Orbital Formations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Implementation of the Iterative Proportion Fitting Algorithm for Geostatistical Facies Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Yupeng, E-mail: yupeng@ualberta.ca; Deutsch, Clayton V.

2012-06-15

In geostatistics, most stochastic algorithm for simulation of categorical variables such as facies or rock types require a conditional probability distribution. The multivariate probability distribution of all the grouped locations including the unsampled location permits calculation of the conditional probability directly based on its definition. In this article, the iterative proportion fitting (IPF) algorithm is implemented to infer this multivariate probability. Using the IPF algorithm, the multivariate probability is obtained by iterative modification to an initial estimated multivariate probability using lower order bivariate probabilities as constraints. The imposed bivariate marginal probabilities are inferred from profiles along drill holes or wells.more » In the IPF process, a sparse matrix is used to calculate the marginal probabilities from the multivariate probability, which makes the iterative fitting more tractable and practical. This algorithm can be extended to higher order marginal probability constraints as used in multiple point statistics. The theoretical framework is developed and illustrated with estimation and simulation example.« less

Pedigree data analysis with crossover interference.

PubMed Central

Browning, Sharon

2003-01-01

We propose a new method for calculating probabilities for pedigree genetic data that incorporates crossover interference using the chi-square models. Applications include relationship inference, genetic map construction, and linkage analysis. The method is based on importance sampling of unobserved inheritance patterns conditional on the observed genotype data and takes advantage of fast algorithms for no-interference models while using reweighting to allow for interference. We show that the method is effective for arbitrarily many markers with small pedigrees. PMID:12930760

Using Dynamic Geometry Software for Teaching Conditional Probability with Area-Proportional Venn Diagrams

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas

2012-01-01

This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships,…

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Measurement error in earnings data: Using a mixture model approach to combine survey and register data.

PubMed

Meijer, Erik; Rohwedder, Susann; Wansbeek, Tom

2012-01-01

Survey data on earnings tend to contain measurement error. Administrative data are superior in principle, but they are worthless in case of a mismatch. We develop methods for prediction in mixture factor analysis models that combine both data sources to arrive at a single earnings figure. We apply the methods to a Swedish data set. Our results show that register earnings data perform poorly if there is a (small) probability of a mismatch. Survey earnings data are more reliable, despite their measurement error. Predictors that combine both and take conditional class probabilities into account outperform all other predictors.

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

Statistical learning of action: the role of conditional probability.

PubMed

Meyer, Meredith; Baldwin, Dare

2011-12-01

Identification of distinct units within a continuous flow of human action is fundamental to action processing. Such segmentation may rest in part on statistical learning. In a series of four experiments, we examined what types of statistics people can use to segment a continuous stream involving many brief, goal-directed action elements. The results of Experiment 1 showed no evidence for sensitivity to conditional probability, whereas Experiment 2 displayed learning based on joint probability. In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that additional exposure to the input failed to engender sensitivity to conditional probability. However, the results of Experiment 4 showed that a subset of adults-namely, those more successful at identifying actions that had been seen more frequently than comparison sequences-were also successful at learning conditional-probability statistics. These experiments help to clarify the mechanisms subserving processing of intentional action, and they highlight important differences from, as well as similarities to, prior studies of statistical learning in other domains, including language.

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival.

PubMed

Ancona, Sergio; Zúñiga-Vega, J Jaime; Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby ( Sula nebouxii ), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments.

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments. PMID:29410788

Sociocultural definitions of risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rayner, S.

1990-10-01

Public constituencies frequently are criticized by technical experts as being irrational in response to low-probability risks. This presentation argued that most people are concerned with a variety of risk attributes other than probability and that is rather irrational to exclude these from the definition and analysis of technological risk. Risk communication, which is at the heart of the right-to-know concept, is described as the creation of shared meaning rather than the mere transmission of information. A case study of utilities, public utility commissions, and public interest groups illustrates how the diversity of institutional cultures in modern society leads to problemsmore » for the creation of shared meanings in establishing trust, distributing liability, and obtaining consent to risk. This holistic approach to risk analysis is most appropriate under conditions of high uncertainty and/or decision stakes. 1 fig., 5 tabs.« less

The effect of divided attention on novices and experts in laparoscopic task performance.

PubMed

Ghazanfar, Mudassar Ali; Cook, Malcolm; Tang, Benjie; Tait, Iain; Alijani, Afshin

2015-03-01

Attention is important for the skilful execution of surgery. The surgeon's attention during surgery is divided between surgery and outside distractions. The effect of this divided attention has not been well studied previously. We aimed to compare the effect of dividing attention of novices and experts on a laparoscopic task performance. Following ethical approval, 25 novices and 9 expert surgeons performed a standardised peg transfer task in a laboratory setup under three randomly assigned conditions: silent as control condition and two standardised auditory distracting tasks requiring response (easy and difficult) as study conditions. Human reliability assessment was used for surgical task analysis. Primary outcome measures were correct auditory responses, task time, number of surgical errors and instrument movements. Secondary outcome measures included error rate, error probability and hand specific differences. Non-parametric statistics were used for data analysis. 21109 movements and 9036 total errors were analysed. Novices had increased mean task completion time (seconds) (171 ± 44SD vs. 149 ± 34, p < 0.05), number of total movements (227 ± 27 vs. 213 ± 26, p < 0.05) and number of errors (127 ± 51 vs. 96 ± 28, p < 0.05) during difficult study conditions compared to control. The correct responses to auditory stimuli were less frequent in experts (68 %) compared to novices (80 %). There was a positive correlation between error rate and error probability in novices (r (2) = 0.533, p < 0.05) but not in experts (r (2) = 0.346, p > 0.05). Divided attention conditions in theatre environment require careful consideration during surgical training as the junior surgeons are less able to focus their attention during these conditions.

Errors in the estimation of the variance: implications for multiple-probability fluctuation analysis.

PubMed

Saviane, Chiara; Silver, R Angus

2006-06-15

Synapses play a crucial role in information processing in the brain. Amplitude fluctuations of synaptic responses can be used to extract information about the mechanisms underlying synaptic transmission and its modulation. In particular, multiple-probability fluctuation analysis can be used to estimate the number of functional release sites, the mean probability of release and the amplitude of the mean quantal response from fits of the relationship between the variance and mean amplitude of postsynaptic responses, recorded at different probabilities. To determine these quantal parameters, calculate their uncertainties and the goodness-of-fit of the model, it is important to weight the contribution of each data point in the fitting procedure. We therefore investigated the errors associated with measuring the variance by determining the best estimators of the variance of the variance and have used simulations of synaptic transmission to test their accuracy and reliability under different experimental conditions. For central synapses, which generally have a low number of release sites, the amplitude distribution of synaptic responses is not normal, thus the use of a theoretical variance of the variance based on the normal assumption is not a good approximation. However, appropriate estimators can be derived for the population and for limited sample sizes using a more general expression that involves higher moments and introducing unbiased estimators based on the h-statistics. Our results are likely to be relevant for various applications of fluctuation analysis when few channels or release sites are present.

[Effects of prefrontal ablations on the reaction of the active choice of feeder under different probability and value of the reinforcement on dog].

PubMed

Preobrazhenskaia, L A; Ioffe, M E; Mats, V N

2004-01-01

The role of the prefrontal cortex was investigated on the reaction of the active choice of the two feeders under changes value and probability reinforcement. The experiments were performed on 2 dogs with prefrontal ablation (g. proreus). Before the lesions the dogs were taught to receive food in two different feeders to conditioned stimuli with equally probable alimentary reinforcement. After ablation in the inter-trial intervals the dogs were running from the one feeder to another. In the answer to conditioned stimuli for many times the dogs choose the same feeder. The disturbance of the behavior after some times completely restored. In the experiments with competition of probability events and values of reinforcement the dogs chose the feeder with low-probability but better quality of reinforcement. In the experiments with equal value but different probability the intact dogs chose the feeder with higher probability. In our experiments the dogs with prefrontal lesions chose the each feeder equiprobably. Thus in condition of free behavior one of different functions of the prefrontal cortex is the reactions choose with more probability of reinforcement.

Analysis of temperature rise and the use of coolants in the dissipation of ultrasonic heat buildup during post removal.

PubMed

Davis, Stephen; Gluskin, Alan H; Livingood, Philip M; Chambers, David W

2010-11-01

This study was designed to calculate probabilities for tissue injury and to measure effectiveness of various coolant strategies in countering heat buildup produced by dry ultrasonic vibration during post removal. A simulated biological model was used to evaluate the cooling efficacy of a common refrigerant spray, water spray, and air spray in the recovery of post temperatures deep within the root canal space. The data set consisted of cervical and apical measures of temperature increase at 1-second intervals from baseline during continuous ultrasonic instrumentation until a 10 °C increase in temperature at the cervical site was registered, wherein instrumentation ceased, and the teeth were allowed to cool under ambient conditions or with the assistance of 4 coolant methods. Data were analyzed with analysis of variance by using the independent variables of time of ultrasonic application (10, 15, 20 seconds) and cooling method. In addition to the customary means, standard deviations, and analysis of variance tests, analyses were conducted to determine probabilities that procedures would reach or exceed the 10 °C threshold. Both instrumentation time and cooling agent effects were significant at P <.0001. Under the conditions of this study, it was shown that injurious heat transfer occurs in less than 1 minute during dry ultrasonic instrumentation of metallic posts. Cycles of short instrumentation times with active coolants were effective in reducing the probability of tissue damage when teeth were instrumented dry. With as little as 20 seconds of continuous dry ultrasonic instrumentation, the consequences of thermal buildup to an individual tooth might contribute to an injurious clinical outcome. Copyright © 2010 American Association of Endodontists. All rights reserved.

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible

PubMed Central

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated. PMID:26783525

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible.

PubMed

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated.

Identifying sources of heterogeneity in capture probabilities: An example using the Great Tit Parus major

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senar, J.C.; Conroy, M.J.; Carrascal, L.M.; Domenech, J.; Mozetich, I.; Uribe, F.

1999-01-01

Heterogeneous capture probabilities are a common problem in many capture-recapture studies. Several methods of detecting the presence of such heterogeneity are currently available, and stratification of data has been suggested as the standard method to avoid its effects. However, few studies have tried to identify sources of heterogeneity, or whether there are interactions among sources. The aim of this paper is to suggest an analytical procedure to identify sources of capture heterogeneity. We use data on the sex and age of Great Tits captured in baited funnel traps, at two localities differing in average temperature. We additionally use 'recapture' data obtained by videotaping at feeder (with no associated trap), where the tits ringed with different colours were recorded. This allowed us to test whether individuals in different classes (age, sex and condition) are not trapped because of trap shyness or because o a reduced use of the bait. We used logistic regression analysis of the capture probabilities to test for the effects of age, sex, condition, location and 'recapture method. The results showed a higher recapture probability in the colder locality. Yearling birds (either males or females) had the highest recapture prob abilities, followed by adult males, while adult females had the lowest recapture probabilities. There was no effect of the method of 'recapture' (trap or video tape), which suggests that adult females are less often captured in traps no because of trap-shyness but because of less dependence on supplementary food. The potential use of this methodological approach in other studies is discussed.

Empirical models of transitions between coral reef states: effects of region, protection, and environmental change.

PubMed

Lowe, Phillip K; Bruno, John F; Selig, Elizabeth R; Spencer, Matthew

2011-01-01

There has been substantial recent change in coral reef communities. To date, most analyses have focussed on static patterns or changes in single variables such as coral cover. However, little is known about how community-level changes occur at large spatial scales. Here, we develop Markov models of annual changes in coral and macroalgal cover in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR) regions. We analyzed reef surveys from the Caribbean and GBR (1996-2006). We defined a set of reef states distinguished by coral and macroalgal cover, and obtained Bayesian estimates of the annual probabilities of transitions between these states. The Caribbean and GBR had different transition probabilities, and therefore different rates of change in reef condition. This could be due to differences in species composition, management or the nature and extent of disturbances between these regions. We then estimated equilibrium probability distributions for reef states, and coral and macroalgal cover under constant environmental conditions. In both regions, the current distributions are close to equilibrium. In the Caribbean, coral cover is much lower and macroalgal cover is higher at equilibrium than in the GBR. We found no evidence for differences in transition probabilities between the first and second halves of our survey period, or between Caribbean reefs inside and outside marine protected areas. However, our power to detect such differences may have been low. We also examined the effects of altering transition probabilities on the community state equilibrium, along a continuum from unfavourable (e.g., increased sea surface temperature) to favourable (e.g., improved management) conditions. Both regions showed similar qualitative responses, but different patterns of uncertainty. In the Caribbean, uncertainty was greatest about effects of favourable changes, while in the GBR, we are most uncertain about effects of unfavourable changes. Our approach could be extended to provide risk analysis for management decisions.

The meaning of diagnostic test results: a spreadsheet for swift data analysis.

PubMed

Maceneaney, P M; Malone, D E

2000-03-01

To design a spreadsheet program to: (a) analyse rapidly diagnostic test result data produced in local research or reported in the literature; (b) correct reported predictive values for disease prevalence in any population; (c) estimate the post-test probability of disease in individual patients. Microsoft Excel(TM)was used. Section A: a contingency (2 x 2) table was incorporated into the spreadsheet. Formulae for standard calculations [sample size, disease prevalence, sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals, predictive values and likelihood ratios (LRs)] were linked to this table. The results change automatically when the data in the true or false negative and positive cells are changed. Section B: this estimates predictive values in any population, compensating for altered disease prevalence. Sections C-F: Bayes' theorem was incorporated to generate individual post-test probabilities. The spreadsheet generates 95% confidence intervals, LRs and a table and graph of conditional probabilities once the sensitivity and specificity of the test are entered. The latter shows the expected post-test probability of disease for any pre-test probability when a test of known sensitivity and specificity is positive or negative. This spreadsheet can be used on desktop and palmtop computers. The MS Excel(TM)version can be downloaded via the Internet from the URL ftp://radiography.com/pub/Rad-data99.xls A spreadsheet is useful for contingency table data analysis and assessment of the clinical meaning of diagnostic test results. Copyright 2000 The Royal College of Radiologists.

The Effect of Information Analysis Automation Display Content on Human Judgment Performance in Noisy Environments.

PubMed

Bass, Ellen J; Baumgart, Leigh A; Shepley, Kathryn Klein

2013-03-01

Displaying both the strategy that information analysis automation employs to makes its judgments and variability in the task environment may improve human judgment performance, especially in cases where this variability impacts the judgment performance of the information analysis automation. This work investigated the contribution of providing either information analysis automation strategy information, task environment information, or both, on human judgment performance in a domain where noisy sensor data are used by both the human and the information analysis automation to make judgments. In a simplified air traffic conflict prediction experiment, 32 participants made probability of horizontal conflict judgments under different display content conditions. After being exposed to the information analysis automation, judgment achievement significantly improved for all participants as compared to judgments without any of the automation's information. Participants provided with additional display content pertaining to cue variability in the task environment had significantly higher aided judgment achievement compared to those provided with only the automation's judgment of a probability of conflict. When designing information analysis automation for environments where the automation's judgment achievement is impacted by noisy environmental data, it may be beneficial to show additional task environment information to the human judge in order to improve judgment performance.

Are submarine groundwater discharges affecting the structure and physiological status of rocky intertidal communities?

PubMed

Piló, D; Barbosa, A B; Teodósio, M A; Encarnação, J; Leitão, F; Range, P; Krug, L A; Cruz, J; Chícharo, L

2018-05-01

This study evaluated the impacts of submarine groundwater discharges (SGD) on a rocky intertidal community of South Portugal, during April-November 2011. Chlorophyll-a concentration was higher at the SGD site in respect to the Reference site. Epibenthic community structure differed between sites, with an increase in Chthamalus spp. and a decrease in macroalgae coverage at the SGD site. The abundance and body size of Mytilus galloprovincialis were consistently higher at the SGD site. During mid-spring, under potentially higher SGD and less favorable conditions for coastal phytoplankton, the ecophysiological condition of M. galloprovincialis and G. umbilicalis was also higher at the SGD site. These beneficial effects on filter-feeders and herbivores probably resulted from local increases in prey availability, supported by SGD-driven nutrient inputs. Conversely, P. depressa was not favoured by SGD, probably due to a lower dependency on algae as food. The analysis of epibenthic community structure and ecophysiological condition represents a promising approach to disentangle the ecological impacts of SGD on intertidal ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeger, K. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the landscape that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for targeted management efforts to protect critical reaches.

Space Station laboratory module power loading analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, S. J.

1994-07-01

The electrical power system of Space Station Freedom is an isolated electrical power generation and distribution network designed to meet the demands of a large number of electrical loads. An algorithm is developed to determine the power bus loading status under normal operating conditions to ensure the supply meets demand. The probabilities of power availability for payload operations (experiments) are also derived.

Generating Continuous Surface Probability Maps from Airborne Video Using Two Sampling Intensities Along the Video Transect

Treesearch

Dennis M. Jacobs; William H. Cooke

2000-01-01

Airborne videography can be an effective tool for assessing the effects of catastrophic events on forest conditions. However, there is some question about the appropriate sampling intensity to use, especially when trying to develop correlations with probabilistic data sets such as are assembled through the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) surveys. We used airborne...

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

1999-06-01

The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

Using radar imagery for crop discrimination: a statistical and conditional probability study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haralick, R.M.; Caspall, F.; Simonett, D.S.

1970-01-01

A number of the constraints with which remote sensing must contend in crop studies are outlined. They include sensor, identification accuracy, and congruencing constraints; the nature of the answers demanded of the sensor system; and the complex temporal variances of crops in large areas. Attention is then focused on several methods which may be used in the statistical analysis of multidimensional remote sensing data.Crop discrimination for radar K-band imagery is investigated by three methods. The first one uses a Bayes decision rule, the second a nearest-neighbor spatial conditional probability approach, and the third the standard statistical techniques of cluster analysis and principal axes representation.Results indicate that crop type and percent of cover significantly affect the strength of the radar return signal. Sugar beets, corn, and very bare ground are easily distinguishable, sorghum, alfalfa, and young wheat are harder to distinguish. Distinguishability will be improved if the imagery is examined in time sequence so that changes between times of planning, maturation, and harvest provide additional discriminant tools. A comparison between radar and photography indicates that radar performed surprisingly well in crop discrimination in western Kansas and warrants further study.

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis

PubMed Central

Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

2015-01-01

Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed. PMID:26167524

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis.

PubMed

Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

2015-01-01

Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed.

Mines Systems Safety Improvement Using an Integrated Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ranjan; Ghosh, Achyuta Krishna

2017-04-01

Mines systems such as ventilation system, strata support system, flame proof safety equipment, are exposed to dynamic operational conditions such as stress, humidity, dust, temperature, etc., and safety improvement of such systems can be done preferably during planning and design stage. However, the existing safety analysis methods do not handle the accident initiation and progression of mine systems explicitly. To bridge this gap, this paper presents an integrated Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) approach for safety analysis and improvement of mine systems design. This approach includes ET and FT modeling coupled with redundancy allocation technique. In this method, a concept of top hazard probability is introduced for identifying system failure probability and redundancy is allocated to the system either at component or system level. A case study on mine methane explosion safety with two initiating events is performed. The results demonstrate that the presented method can reveal the accident scenarios and improve the safety of complex mine systems simultaneously.

Tracking the Sensory Environment: An ERP Study of Probability and Context Updating in ASD

PubMed Central

Westerfield, Marissa A.; Zinni, Marla; Vo, Khang; Townsend, Jeanne

2014-01-01

We recorded visual event-related brain potentials (ERPs) from 32 adult male participants (16 high-functioning participants diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and 16 control participants, ranging in age from 18–53 yrs) during a three-stimulus oddball paradigm. Target and non-target stimulus probability was varied across three probability conditions, whereas the probability of a third non-target stimulus was held constant in all conditions. P3 amplitude to target stimuli was more sensitive to probability in ASD than in TD participants, whereas P3 amplitude to non-target stimuli was less responsive to probability in ASD participants. This suggests that neural responses to changes in event probability are attention-dependant in high-functioning ASD. The implications of these findings for higher-level behaviors such as prediction and planning are discussed. PMID:24488156

Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

PubMed Central

Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

2012-01-01

Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

PubMed

Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J; Barton, Jason J S

2012-01-01

There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

Rapidly assessing the probability of exceptionally high natural hazard losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gollini, Isabella; Rougier, Jonathan

2014-05-01

One of the objectives in catastrophe modeling is to assess the probability distribution of losses for a specified period, such as a year. From the point of view of an insurance company, the whole of the loss distribution is interesting, and valuable in determining insurance premiums. But the shape of the righthand tail is critical, because it impinges on the solvency of the company. A simple measure of the risk of insolvency is the probability that the annual loss will exceed the company's current operating capital. Imposing an upper limit on this probability is one of the objectives of the EU Solvency II directive. If a probabilistic model is supplied for the loss process, then this tail probability can be computed, either directly, or by simulation. This can be a lengthy calculation for complex losses. Given the inevitably subjective nature of quantifying loss distributions, computational resources might be better used in a sensitivity analysis. This requires either a quick approximation to the tail probability or an upper bound on the probability, ideally a tight one. We present several different bounds, all of which can be computed nearly instantly from a very general event loss table. We provide a numerical illustration, and discuss the conditions under which the bound is tight. Although we consider the perspective of insurance and reinsurance companies, exactly the same issues concern the risk manager, who is typically very sensitive to large losses.

Association between use of systematic reviews and national policy recommendations on screening newborn babies for rare diseases: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Taylor-Phillips, Sian; Stinton, Chris; Ferrante di Ruffano, Lavinia; Seedat, Farah; Clarke, Aileen; Deeks, Jonathan J

2018-05-09

To understand whether international differences in recommendations of whether to screen for rare diseases using the newborn blood spot test might in part be explained by use of systematic review methods. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Website searches of 26 national screening organisations. Journal articles, papers, legal documents, presentations, conference abstracts, or reports relating to a national recommendation on whether to screen for any condition using the newborn blood spot test, with no restrictions on date or language. Two reviewers independently assessed whether the recommendation for or against screening included systematic reviews, and data on test accuracy, benefits of early detection, and potential harms of overdiagnosis. The odds of recommending screening according to the use of systematic review methods was estimated across conditions using meta-analysis. 93 reports were included that assessed 104 conditions across 14 countries, totalling 276 recommendations (units of analysis). Screening was favoured in 159 (58%) recommendations, not favoured in 98 (36%), and not recommended either way in 19 (7%). Only 60 (22%) of the recommendations included a systematic review. Use of a systematic review was associated with a reduced probability of screening being recommended (23/60 (38%) v 136/216 (63%), odds ratio 0.17, 95% confidence interval 0.07 to 0.43). Of the recommendations, evidence for test accuracy, benefits of early detection, and overdiagnosis was not considered in 115 (42%), 83 (30%), and 211 (76%), respectively. Using systematic review methods is associated with a reduced probability of screening being recommended. Many national policy reviews of screening for rare conditions using the newborn blood spot test do not assess the evidence on the key benefits and harms of screening. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan.

PubMed

Oskorouchi, Hamid Reza; Nie, Peng; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2018-01-01

This study uses biomarker information from the 2013 National Nutrition Survey Afghanistan and satellite precipitation driven modeling results from the Global Flood Monitoring System to analyze how floods affect the probability of anemia in Afghan women of reproductive age (15-49). In addition to establishing a causal relation between the two by exploiting the quasi-random variation of floods in different districts and periods, the analysis demonstrates that floods have a significant positive effect on the probability of anemia through two possible transmission mechanisms. The first is a significant effect on inflammation, probably related to water borne diseases carried by unsafe drinking water, and the second is a significant negative effect on retinol concentrations. Because the effect of floods on anemia remains significant even after we control for anemia's most common causes, we argue that the condition may also be affected by elevated levels of psychological stress.

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study uses biomarker information from the 2013 National Nutrition Survey Afghanistan and satellite precipitation driven modeling results from the Global Flood Monitoring System to analyze how floods affect the probability of anemia in Afghan women of reproductive age (15–49). In addition to establishing a causal relation between the two by exploiting the quasi-random variation of floods in different districts and periods, the analysis demonstrates that floods have a significant positive effect on the probability of anemia through two possible transmission mechanisms. The first is a significant effect on inflammation, probably related to water borne diseases carried by unsafe drinking water, and the second is a significant negative effect on retinol concentrations. Because the effect of floods on anemia remains significant even after we control for anemia’s most common causes, we argue that the condition may also be affected by elevated levels of psychological stress. PMID:29425219

Local linear estimation of concordance probability with application to covariate effects models on association for bivariate failure-time data.

PubMed

Ding, Aidong Adam; Hsieh, Jin-Jian; Wang, Weijing

2015-01-01

Bivariate survival analysis has wide applications. In the presence of covariates, most literature focuses on studying their effects on the marginal distributions. However covariates can also affect the association between the two variables. In this article we consider the latter issue by proposing a nonstandard local linear estimator for the concordance probability as a function of covariates. Under the Clayton copula, the conditional concordance probability has a simple one-to-one correspondence with the copula parameter for different data structures including those subject to independent or dependent censoring and dependent truncation. The proposed method can be used to study how covariates affect the Clayton association parameter without specifying marginal regression models. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived and their finite-sample performances are examined via simulations. Finally, for illustration, we apply the proposed method to analyze a bone marrow transplant data set.

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains.

PubMed

Melnik, S S; Usatenko, O V

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model

PubMed Central

Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Over, David

2014-01-01

There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998) for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer and Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer et al., 2010) is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches) and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task. PMID:24860516

New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model.

PubMed

Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Over, David

2014-01-01

There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998) for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer and Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer et al., 2010) is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches) and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task.

Probable Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in the US Veteran Population According to DSM-5: Results From the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study.

PubMed

Wisco, Blair E; Marx, Brian P; Miller, Mark W; Wolf, Erika J; Mota, Natalie P; Krystal, John H; Southwick, Steven M; Pietrzak, Robert H

2016-11-01

With the publication of DSM-5, important changes were made to the diagnostic criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), including the addition of 3 new symptoms. Some have argued that these changes will further increase the already high rates of comorbidity between PTSD and other psychiatric disorders. This study examined the prevalence of DSM-5 PTSD, conditional probability of PTSD given certain trauma exposures, endorsement of specific PTSD symptoms, and psychiatric comorbidities in the US veteran population. Data were analyzed from the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study (NHRVS), a Web-based survey of a cross-sectional, nationally representative, population-based sample of 1,484 US veterans, which was fielded from September through October 2013. Probable PTSD was assessed using the PTSD Checklist-5. The weighted lifetime and past-month prevalence of probable DSM-5 PTSD was 8.1% (SE = 0.7%) and 4.7% (SE = 0.6%), respectively. Conditional probability of lifetime probable PTSD ranged from 10.1% (sudden death of close family member or friend) to 28.0% (childhood sexual abuse). The DSM-5 PTSD symptoms with the lowest prevalence among veterans with probable PTSD were trauma-related amnesia and reckless and self-destructive behavior. Probable PTSD was associated with increased odds of mood and anxiety disorders (OR = 7.6-62.8, P < .001), substance use disorders (OR = 3.9-4.5, P < .001), and suicidal behaviors (OR = 6.7-15.1, P < .001). In US veterans, the prevalence of DSM-5 probable PTSD, conditional probability of probable PTSD, and odds of psychiatric comorbidity were similar to prior findings with DSM-IV-based measures; we found no evidence that changes in DSM-5 increase psychiatric comorbidity. Results underscore the high rates of exposure to both military and nonmilitary trauma and the high public health burden of DSM-5 PTSD and comorbid conditions in veterans. © Copyright 2016 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Dynamic probability of reinforcement for cooperation: Random game termination in the centipede game.

PubMed

Krockow, Eva M; Colman, Andrew M; Pulford, Briony D

2018-03-01

Experimental games have previously been used to study principles of human interaction. Many such games are characterized by iterated or repeated designs that model dynamic relationships, including reciprocal cooperation. To enable the study of infinite game repetitions and to avoid endgame effects of lower cooperation toward the final game round, investigators have introduced random termination rules. This study extends previous research that has focused narrowly on repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games by conducting a controlled experiment of two-player, random termination Centipede games involving probabilistic reinforcement and characterized by the longest decision sequences reported in the empirical literature to date (24 decision nodes). Specifically, we assessed mean exit points and cooperation rates, and compared the effects of four different termination rules: no random game termination, random game termination with constant termination probability, random game termination with increasing termination probability, and random game termination with decreasing termination probability. We found that although mean exit points were lower for games with shorter expected game lengths, the subjects' cooperativeness was significantly reduced only in the most extreme condition with decreasing computer termination probability and an expected game length of two decision nodes. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

A TCP model for external beam treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, Sean; Putten, Wil van der

2013-03-15

Purpose: Biological models offer the ability to predict clinical outcomes. The authors describe a model to predict the clinical response of intermediate-risk prostate cancer to external beam radiotherapy for a variety of fractionation regimes. Methods: A fully heterogeneous population averaged tumor control probability model was fit to clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments. The tumor control probability model was then employed to predict the clinical outcome of extreme hypofractionation regimes, as utilized in stereotactic body radiotherapy. Results: The tumor control probability model achieves an excellent level of fit, R{sup 2} value of 0.93 and a root meanmore » squared error of 1.31%, to the clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments using realistic values for biological input parameters. Residuals Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To 1.0% are produced by the tumor control probability model when compared to clinical outcome data for stereotactic body radiotherapy. Conclusions: The authors conclude that this tumor control probability model, used with the optimized radiosensitivity values obtained from the fit, is an appropriate mechanistic model for the analysis and evaluation of external beam RT plans with regard to tumor control for these clinical conditions.« less

Health Data Entanglement and artificial intelligence-based analysis: a brand new methodology to improve the effectiveness of healthcare services.

PubMed

Capone, A; Cicchetti, A; Mennini, F S; Marcellusi, A; Baio, G; Favato, G

2016-01-01

Healthcare expenses will be the most relevant policy issue for most governments in the EU and in the USA. This expenditure can be associated with two major key categories: demographic and economic drivers. Factors driving healthcare expenditure were rarely recognised, measured and comprehended. An improvement of health data generation and analysis is mandatory, and in order to tackle healthcare spending growth, it may be useful to design and implement an effective, advanced system to generate and analyse these data. A methodological approach relied upon the Health Data Entanglement (HDE) can be a suitable option. By definition, in the HDE a large amount of data sets having several sources are functionally interconnected and computed through learning machines that generate patterns of highly probable future health conditions of a population. Entanglement concept is borrowed from quantum physics and means that multiple particles (information) are linked together in a way such that the measurement of one particle's quantum state (individual health conditions and related economic requirements) determines the possible quantum states of other particles (population health forecasts to predict their impact). The value created by the HDE is based on the combined evaluation of clinical, economic and social effects generated by health interventions. To predict the future health conditions of a population, analyses of data are performed using self-learning AI, in which sequential decisions are based on Bayesian algorithmic probabilities. HDE and AI-based analysis can be adopted to improve the effectiveness of the health governance system in ways that also lead to better quality of care.

Physiological condition of autumn-banded mallards and its relationship to hunting vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hepp, G.R.; Blohm, R.J.; Reynolds, R.E.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

1986-01-01

An important topic of waterfowl ecology concerns the relationship between the physiological condition of ducks during the nonbreeding season and fitness, i.e., survival and future reproductive success. We investigated this subject using direct band recovery records of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) banded in autumn (1 Oct-15 Dec) 1981-83 in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) [USA]. A condition index, weight (g)/wing length (mm), was calculated for each duck, and we tested whether condition of mallards at time of banding was related to their probability of recovery during the hunting season. In 3 years, 5,610 mallards were banded and there were 234 direct recoveries. Three binary regression model was used to test the relationship between recovery probability and condition. Likelihood-ratio tests were conducted to determine the most suitable model. For mallards banded in autumn there was a negative relationship between physical condition and the probability of recovery. Mallards in poor condition at the time of banding had a greater probability of being recovered during the hunting season. In general, this was true for all ages and sex classes; however, the strongest relationship occurred for adult males.

Metocean design parameter estimation for fixed platform based on copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Jinjin; Yin, Qilin; Dong, Sheng

2017-08-01

Considering the dependent relationship among wave height, wind speed, and current velocity, we construct novel trivariate joint probability distributions via Archimedean copula functions. Total 30-year data of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity in the Bohai Sea are hindcast and sampled for case study. Four kinds of distributions, namely, Gumbel distribution, lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Pearson Type III distribution, are candidate models for marginal distributions of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity. The Pearson Type III distribution is selected as the optimal model. Bivariate and trivariate probability distributions of these environmental conditions are established based on four bivariate and trivariate Archimedean copulas, namely, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel-Hougaard, and Ali-Mikhail-Haq copulas. These joint probability models can maximize marginal information and the dependence among the three variables. The design return values of these three variables can be obtained by three methods: univariate probability, conditional probability, and joint probability. The joint return periods of different load combinations are estimated by the proposed models. Platform responses (including base shear, overturning moment, and deck displacement) are further calculated. For the same return period, the design values of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity obtained by the conditional and joint probability models are much smaller than those by univariate probability. Considering the dependence among variables, the multivariate probability distributions provide close design parameters to actual sea state for ocean platform design.

Alternative diagnostic strategies for coronary artery disease in women: demonstration of the usefulness and efficiency of probability analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melin, J.A.; Wijns, W.; Vanbutsele, R.J.

Alternative strategies using conditional probability analysis for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) were examined in 93 infarct-free women presenting with chest pain. Another group of 42 consecutive female patients was prospectively analyzed. For this latter group, the physician had access to the pretest and posttest probability of CAD before coronary angiography. These 135 women all underwent stress electrocardiographic, thallium scintigraphic, and coronary angiographic examination. The pretest and posttest probabilities of coronary disease were derived from a computerized Bayesian algorithm. Probability estimates were calculated by the four following hypothetical strategies: SO, in which history, including risk factors, was considered;more » S1, in which history and stress electrocardiographic results were considered; S2, in which history and stress electrocardiographic and stress thallium scintigraphic results were considered; and S3, in which history and stress electrocardiographic results were used, but in which stress scintigraphic results were considered only if the poststress probability of CAD was between 10% and 90%, i.e., if a sufficient level of diagnostic certainty could not be obtained with the electrocardiographic results alone. The strategies were compared with respect to accuracy with the coronary angiogram as the standard. For both groups of women, S2 and S3 were found to be the most accurate in predicting the presence or absence of coronary disease (p less than .05). However, it was found with use of S3 that more than one-third of the thallium scintigrams could have been avoided without loss of accuracy. It was also found that diagnostic catheterization performed to exclude CAD as a diagnosis could have been avoided in half of the patients without loss of accuracy.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)« less

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Fermi's paradox, extraterrestrial life and the future of humanity: a Bayesian analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verendel, Vilhelm; Häggström, Olle

2017-01-01

The Great Filter interpretation of Fermi's great silence asserts that Npq is not a very large number, where N is the number of potentially life-supporting planets in the observable universe, p is the probability that a randomly chosen such planet develops intelligent life to the level of present-day human civilization, and q is the conditional probability that it then goes on to develop a technological supercivilization visible all over the observable universe. Evidence suggests that N is huge, which implies that pq is very small. Hanson (1998) and Bostrom (2008) have argued that the discovery of extraterrestrial life would point towards p not being small and therefore a very small q, which can be seen as bad news for humanity's prospects of colonizing the universe. Here we investigate whether a Bayesian analysis supports their argument, and the answer turns out to depend critically on the choice of prior distribution.

Targeting the probability versus cost of feared outcomes in public speaking anxiety.

PubMed

Nelson, Elizabeth A; Deacon, Brett J; Lickel, James J; Sy, Jennifer T

2010-04-01

Cognitive-behavioral theory suggests that social phobia is maintained, in part, by overestimates of the probability and cost of negative social events. Indeed, empirically supported cognitive-behavioral treatments directly target these cognitive biases through the use of in vivo exposure or behavioral experiments. While cognitive-behavioral theories and treatment protocols emphasize the importance of targeting probability and cost biases in the reduction of social anxiety, few studies have examined specific techniques for reducing probability and cost bias, and thus the relative efficacy of exposure to the probability versus cost of negative social events is unknown. In the present study, 37 undergraduates with high public speaking anxiety were randomly assigned to a single-session intervention designed to reduce either the perceived probability or the perceived cost of negative outcomes associated with public speaking. Compared to participants in the probability treatment condition, those in the cost treatment condition demonstrated significantly greater improvement on measures of public speaking anxiety and cost estimates for negative social events. The superior efficacy of the cost treatment condition was mediated by greater treatment-related changes in social cost estimates. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dynamic properties of epidemic spreading on finite size complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ying; Liu, Yang; Shan, Xiu-Ming; Ren, Yong; Jiao, Jian; Qiu, Ben

2005-11-01

The Internet presents a complex topological structure, on which computer viruses can easily spread. By using theoretical analysis and computer simulation methods, the dynamic process of disease spreading on finite size networks with complex topological structure is investigated. On the finite size networks, the spreading process of SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model is a finite Markov chain with an absorbing state. Two parameters, the survival probability and the conditional infecting probability, are introduced to describe the dynamic properties of disease spreading on finite size networks. Our results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks. Also, knowledge about the dynamic character of virus spreading is helpful for adopting immunity policy.

Decay Rates and Probability Estimatesfor Massive Dirac Particlesin the Kerr-Newman Black Hole Geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finster, F.; Kamran, N.; Smoller, J.; Yau, S.-T.

The Cauchy problem is considered for the massive Dirac equation in the non-extreme Kerr-Newman geometry, for smooth initial data with compact support outside the event horizon and bounded angular momentum. We prove that the Dirac wave function decays in L∞ {loc} at least at the rate t-5/6. For generic initial data, this rate of decay is sharp. We derive a formula for the probability p that the Dirac particle escapes to infinity. For various conditions on the initial data, we show that p = 0, 1 or 0 < p < 1. The proofs are based on a refined analysis of the Dirac propagator constructed in [4].

Profit intensity and cases of non-compliance with the law of demand/supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makowski, Marcin; Piotrowski, Edward W.; Sładkowski, Jan; Syska, Jacek

2017-05-01

We consider properties of the measurement intensity ρ of a random variable for which the probability density function represented by the corresponding Wigner function attains negative values on a part of the domain. We consider a simple economic interpretation of this problem. This model is used to present the applicability of the method to the analysis of the negative probability on markets where there are anomalies in the law of supply and demand (e.g. Giffen's goods). It turns out that the new conditions to optimize the intensity ρ require a new strategy. We propose a strategy (so-called à rebours strategy) based on the fixed point method and explore its effectiveness.

Information Use Differences in Hot and Cold Risk Processing: When Does Information About Probability Count in the Columbia Card Task?

PubMed

Markiewicz, Łukasz; Kubińska, Elżbieta

2015-01-01

This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain) with its probability and outcome two (often a loss) with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, s/he could potentially narrow their focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameters' influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot than in cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount, and loss amount) or from ignoring some parameters. Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT) in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes) with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability), we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability), but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual's CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus, the affective dimension of hot tasks inhibits correct information processing, probably because it is difficult to engage Type 2 processes in such circumstances. Individuals' Type 2 processing abilities (measured by the CRT) assist greater use of information in cold tasks but do not help in hot tasks.

Information Use Differences in Hot and Cold Risk Processing: When Does Information About Probability Count in the Columbia Card Task?

PubMed Central

Markiewicz, Łukasz; Kubińska, Elżbieta

2015-01-01

Objective: This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain) with its probability and outcome two (often a loss) with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, s/he could potentially narrow their focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameters' influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot than in cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount, and loss amount) or from ignoring some parameters. Methods: Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT) in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes) with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability), we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Results: Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability), but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual's CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus, the affective dimension of hot tasks inhibits correct information processing, probably because it is difficult to engage Type 2 processes in such circumstances. Individuals' Type 2 processing abilities (measured by the CRT) assist greater use of information in cold tasks but do not help in hot tasks. PMID:26635652

Quantitative risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall based on direct costs of urban buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vega, Johnny Alexander; Hidalgo, Cesar Augusto

2016-11-01

This paper outlines a framework for risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall in urban buildings in the city of Medellín - Colombia, applying a model that uses a geographic information system (GIS). We applied a computer model that includes topographic, geological, geotechnical and hydrological features of the study area to assess landslide hazards using the Newmark's pseudo-static method, together with a probabilistic approach based on the first order and second moment method (FOSM). The physical vulnerability assessment of buildings was conducted using structural fragility indexes, as well as the definition of damage level of buildings via decision trees and using Medellin's cadastral inventory data. The probability of occurrence of a landslide was calculated assuming that an earthquake produces horizontal ground acceleration (Ah) and considering the uncertainty of the geotechnical parameters and the soil saturation conditions of the ground. The probability of occurrence was multiplied by the structural fragility index values and by the replacement value of structures. The model implemented aims to quantify the risk caused by this kind of disaster in an area of the city of Medellín based on different values of Ah and an analysis of the damage costs of this disaster to buildings under different scenarios and structural conditions. Currently, 62% of ;Valle de Aburra; where the study area is located is under very low condition of landslide hazard and 38% is under low condition. If all buildings in the study area fulfilled the requirements of the Colombian building code, the costs of a landslide would be reduced 63% compared with the current condition. An earthquake with a return period of 475 years was used in this analysis according to the seismic microzonation study in 2002.

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Chamis, Christos C.; Liaw, Leslie D. G.

1993-01-01

The application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to aircraft wing type structures is described. The code performs a complete probabilistic analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups, and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of the fatigue life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to the random pressure. The sensitivity of the fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Learned movements elicited by direct stimulation of cerebellar mossy fiber afferents.

PubMed

Hesslow, G; Svensson, P; Ivarsson, M

1999-09-01

Definitive evidence is presented that the conditioned stimulus (CS) in classical conditioning reaches the cerebellum via the mossy fiber system. Decerebrate ferrets received paired forelimb and periocular stimulation until they responded with blinks to the forelimb stimulus. When direct mossy fiber stimulation was then given, the animals responded with conditioned blinks immediately, that is, without ever having been trained to the mossy fiber stimulation. Antidromic activation was prevented by blocking mossy fibers with lignocaine ventral to the stimulation site. It could be excluded that cerebellar output functioned as the CS. Analysis of latencies suggests that conditioned responses (CRs) are not generated by mossy fiber collaterals to the deep nuclei. Hence, the memory trace is probably located in the cerebellar cortex.

Diversity in mRNA expression of the serine-type carboxypeptidase ocpG in Aspergillus oryzae through intron retention.

PubMed

Ishida, Ken; Kuboshima, Megumi; Morita, Hiroto; Maeda, Hiroshi; Okamoto, Ayako; Takeuchi, Michio; Yamagata, Youhei

2014-01-01

Alternative splicing is thought to be a means for diversification of products by mRNA modification. Although some intron retentions are predicted by transcriptome analysis in Aspergillus oryzae, its physiological significance remains unknown. We found that intron retention occurred occasionally in the serine-type carboxypeptidase gene, ocpG. Analysis under various culture conditions revealed that extracellular nitrogen conditions influence splicing patterns; this suggested that there might be a correlation between splicing efficiency and the necessity of OcpG activity for obtaining a nitrogen source. Since further analysis showed that splicing occurred independently in each intron, we constructed ocpG intron-exchanging strain by interchanging the positions of intron-1 and intron-2. The splicing pattern indicated the probability that ocpG intron retention was affected by the secondary structures of intronic mRNA.

Race, unemployment rate, and chronic mental illness: a 15-year trend analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Celia C; Cheng, Tyrone C

2014-07-01

Before abating, the recession of the first decade of this century doubled the US unemployment rate. High unemployment is conceptualized as a stressor having serious effects on individuals' mental health. Data from surveys administered repeatedly over 15 years (1997-2011) described changes over time in the prevalence of chronic mental illness among US adults. The data allowed us to pinpoint changes characterizing the White majority--but not Black, Hispanic, or Asian minorities--and to ask whether such changes were attributable to economic conditions (measured via national unemployment rates). We combined 1.5 decades' worth of National Health Interview Survey data in one secondary analysis. We took social structural and demographic factors into account and let adjusted probability of chronic mental illness indicate prevalence of chronic mental illness We observed, as a general trend, that chronic mental illness probability increased as the unemployment rate rose. A greater increase in probability was observed for Blacks than Whites, notably during 2007-2011, the heart of the recession Our results confirmed that structural risk posed by the recent recession and by vulnerability to the recession's effects was differentially linked to Blacks. This led to the group's high probability of chronic mental illness, observed even when individual-level social structural and demographic factors were controlled. Future research should specify the particular kinds of vulnerability that created the additional disadvantage experienced by Black respondents.

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, R.W.; Harp, E.L.; Michael, J.A.

2000-01-01

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps; an example from the Los Angeles, California, area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Harp, Edwin L.; Michael, John A.

1998-01-01

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10-m grid spacing in the ARC/INFO GIS platform. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure.

Neural mechanisms associated with treatment decision making: An fMRI study.

PubMed

Abidi, Malek; Bruce, Jared; Le Blanche, Alain; Bruce, Amanda; Jarmolowicz, David P; Csillik, Antonia; Thai, N Jade; Lim, Seung-Lark; Heinzlef, Olivier; de Marco, Giovanni

2018-04-23

Great progress has been made in understanding how people make financial decisions. However, there is little research on how people make health and treatment choices. Our study aimed to examine how participants weigh benefits (reduction in disease progression) and probability of risk (medications' side effects) when making hypothetical treatment decisions, and to identify the neural networks implicated in this process. Fourteen healthy participants were recruited to perform a treatment decision probability discounting task using MRI. Behavioral responses and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were measured. A whole brain analysis were performed to compare activity changes between "mild" and "severe" medications' side effects conditions. Then, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), ventral striatum (VS), amygdala and insula were chosen for effective connectivity analysis. Behavioral data showed that participants are more likely to refuse medication when side effects are high and efficacy is low. SCRs values were significantly higher when people made medication decisions in the severe compared to mild condition. Functionally, OFC and VS were activated in the mild condition and were associated with increased likehood of choosing to take medication (higher area under the curve "AUC" side effects/efficacy). These regions also demonstrated an increased effective connectivity when participants valued treatment benefits. By contrast, the OFC, insula and amygdala were activated in the severe condition and were associated with and increased likelihood to refuse treatment. These regions showed enhanced effective connectivity when participants were confronted with increased side effects severity. This is the first study to examine the behavioral and neural bases of medical decision making. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of future asset prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

2014-12-01

This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

Further evaluation of leisure items in the attention condition of functional analyses.

PubMed

Roscoe, Eileen M; Carreau, Abbey; MacDonald, Jackie; Pence, Sacha T

2008-01-01

Research suggests that including leisure items in the attention condition of a functional analysis may produce engagement that masks sensitivity to attention. In this study, 4 individuals' initial functional analyses indicated that behavior was maintained by nonsocial variables (n = 3) or by attention (n = 1). A preference assessment was used to identify items for subsequent functional analyses. Four conditions were compared, attention with and without leisure items and control with and without leisure items. Following this, either high- or low-preference items were included in the attention condition. Problem behavior was more probable during the attention condition when no leisure items or low-preference items were included, and lower levels of problem behavior were observed during the attention condition when high-preference leisure items were included. These findings suggest how preferred items may hinder detection of behavioral function.

A panel data analysis of the probability of childbirth in a Japanese sample: New evidence of the two-child norm.

PubMed

Morita, Masahito; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Hiraiwa-Hasegawa, Mariko

2016-01-01

To reveal the conditions that could facilitate childbirth in modern humans, it is necessary to analyze not only cross-sectional surveys but also panel data that track the same person for a long period. In this study, we analyzed factors that would influence the probability of childbirth. We analyzed Japanese panel data with a Cox proportional hazard model. Subjects of our analysis were married women and their childbirth records from 2004 to 2009. Contrary to the predictions based on the theory of behavioral ecology, we found no positive relationship between good parental conditions for childcare, such as high income, increase in income, or coresidence with parents (i.e., grandparents of children), and the occurrence of childbirth. We found that the number of existing children had a significant impact on the probability of childbirth. The likelihood of further childbirth by couples with one child was nearly equal to that of childless ones. However, the corresponding likelihood of couples with two children was about five times lower than that of childless ones. The total fertility rates in modern developed societies are quite low and couples prefer having two children. This trend is known as the two-child norm, but it is a paradoxical phenomenon in terms of fitness maximization. Our result provided new quantitative evidence of this norm. This study revealed that the number of existing children being less than two was one of the factors associated with further childbearing in our Japanese sample. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

2015-12-01

Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

A study on the characterization of Propionibacterium acnes isolated from ocular clinical specimens.

PubMed

Sowmiya, Murali; Malathi, Jambulingam; Swarnali, Sen; Priya, Jeyavel Padma; Therese, Kulandai Lily; Madhavan, Hajib N

2015-10-01

There are only a few reports available on characterization of Propionibacterium acnes isolated from various ocular clinical specimens. We undertook this study to evaluate the role of P. acnes in ocular infections and biofilm production, and also do the phylogenetic analysis of the bacilli. One hundred isolates of P. acnes collected prospectively from ocular clinical specimens at a tertiary care eye hospital between January 2010 and December 2011, were studied for their association with various ocular disease conditions. The isolates were also subjected to genotyping and phylogenetic analysis, and were also tested for their ability to produce biofilms. Among preoperative conjunctival swabs, P. acnes was a probably significant pathogen in one case; a possibly significant pathogen in two cases. In other clinical conditions, 13 per cent isolates were probably significant pathogens and 38 per cent as possibly significant pathogens. The analysis of 16S rRNA gene revealed four different phylogenies whereas analysis of recA gene showed two phylogenies confirming that recA gene was more reliable than 16S rRNA with less sequence variation. Results of polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) had 100 per cent concordance with phylogenetic results. No association was seen between P. acnes subtypes and biofilm production. RecA gene phylogenetic studies revealed two different phylogenies. RFLP technique was found to be cost-effective with high sensitivity and specificity in phylogenetic analysis. No association between P. acnes subtypes and pathogenetic ability was observed. Biofilm producing isolates showed increased antibiotic resistance compared with non-biofilm producing isolates.

Statistical approaches to the analysis of point count data: a little extra information can go a long way

Treesearch

George L. Farnsworth; James D. Nichols; John R. Sauer; Steven G. Fancy; Kenneth H. Pollock; Susan A. Shriner; Theodore R. Simons

2005-01-01

Point counts are a standard sampling procedure for many bird species, but lingering concerns still exist about the quality of information produced from the method. It is well known that variation in observer ability and environmental conditions can influence the detection probability of birds in point counts, but many biologists have been reluctant to abandon point...

Complete synchronization of the global coupled dynamical network induced by Poisson noises.

PubMed

Guo, Qing; Wan, Fangyi

2017-01-01

The different Poisson noise-induced complete synchronization of the global coupled dynamical network is investigated. Based on the stability theory of stochastic differential equations driven by Poisson process, we can prove that Poisson noises can induce synchronization and sufficient conditions are established to achieve complete synchronization with probability 1. Furthermore, numerical examples are provided to show the agreement between theoretical and numerical analysis.

Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves labor productivity (e.g., farming) and work stoppage due to weather conditions (e.g., transportation, agriculture industry).

Using Bayesian Belief Networks and event trees for volcanic hazard assessment and decision support : reconstruction of past eruptions of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe and retrospective analysis of 1975-77 unrest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Hincks, Thea; Sparks, Steve; Aspinall, Willy; Legendre, Yoann; Boudon, Georges

2013-04-01

Since 1992, mild but persistent seismic and fumarolic unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano has prompted renewed concern about hazards and risks, crisis response planning, and has rejuvenated interest in geological studies. Scientists monitoring active volcanoes frequently have to provide science-based decision support to civil authorities during such periods of unrest. In these circumstances, the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) offers a formalized evidence analysis tool for making inferences about the state of the volcano from different strands of data, allowing associated uncertainties to be treated in a rational and auditable manner, to the extent warranted by the strength of the evidence. To illustrate the principles of the BBN approach, a retrospective analysis is undertaken of the 1975-77 crisis, providing an inferential assessment of the evolving state of the magmatic system and the probability of subsequent eruption. Conditional dependencies and parameters in the BBN are characterized quantitatively by structured expert elicitation. Revisiting data available in 1976 suggests the probability of magmatic intrusion would have been evaluated high at the time, according with subsequent thinking about the volcanological nature of the episode. The corresponding probability of a magmatic eruption therefore would have been elevated in July and August 1976; however, collective uncertainty about the future course of the crisis was great at the time, even if some individual opinions were certain. From this BBN analysis, while the more likely appraised outcome - based on observational trends at 31 August 1976 - might have been 'no eruption' (mean probability 0.5; 5-95 percentile range 0.8), an imminent magmatic eruption (or blast) could have had a probability of about 0.4, almost as substantial. Thus, there was no real scientific basis to assert one scenario was more likely than the other. This retrospective evaluation adds objective probabilistic expression to the contemporary volcanological narrative, and demonstrates that a formal evidential case could have been made to support the authorities' concerns and decision to evacuate. Revisiting the circumstances of the 1976 crisis highlights many contemporary challenges of decision-making under conditions of volcanological uncertainty. We suggest the BBN concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple observations, model results and interpretations - and all associated uncertainties - in a methodical manner. Base-rate eruption probabilities for Guadeloupe can be updated now with a new chronology of activity suggesting that 10 major explosive phases and 9 dome-forming phases occurred in the last 9150 years, associated with ≥ 8 flank-collapses and ≥ 6-7 high-energy pyroclastic density currents (blasts). Eruptive recurrence, magnitude and intensity place quantitative constraints on La Soufrière's event tree to elaborate credible scenarios. The current unrest offers an opportunity to update the BBN model and explore the uncertainty on inferences about the system's internal state. This probabilistic formalism would provoke key questions relating to unrest evolution: 1) is the unrest hydrothermal or magmatic? 2) what controls dyke/intrusion arrest and hence failed-magmatic eruptions like 1976? 3) what conditions could lead to significant pressurization with potential for explosive activity and edifice instability, and what monitoring signs might be manifest?

Height probabilities in the Abelian sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Haiyan; Zhang, Fuji

2013-08-01

In this paper, we study the sandpile model on the generalized finite Bethe lattice with a particular boundary condition. Using a combinatorial method, we give the exact expressions for all single-site probabilities and some two-site joint probabilities. As a by-product, we prove that the height probabilities of bulk vertices are all the same for the Bethe lattice with certain given boundary condition, which was found from numerical evidence by Grassberger and Manna ["Some more sandpiles," J. Phys. (France) 51, 1077-1098 (1990)], 10.1051/jphys:0199000510110107700 but without a proof.

Frequency and predictive factors for overlap syndrome between autoimmune hepatitis and primary cholestatic liver disease.

PubMed

Gheorghe, Liana; Iacob, Speranta; Gheorghe, Cristian; Iacob, Razvan; Simionov, Iulia; Vadan, Roxana; Becheanu, Gabriel; Parvulescu, Iuliana; Toader, Cristina

2004-06-01

To evaluate the frequency of cholestatic pattern in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and to identify predictive factors associated with the development of the overlap syndrome. Eighty-two consecutive patients diagnosed with AIH at the referral centre between January 1998 and June 2002 were included in the study. The new scoring system modified by the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group was used to classify patients as definite/probable. Overlap syndrome was considered when the patient had clinical, serological and histological characteristics of two conditions: AIH and primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) or AIH and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). From the 82 AIH patients (76 female and six male), 84.1% presented definite AIH (> 15 points) and 15.9% probable AIH (10 - 15 points). The frequency of the overlap syndrome was 20%: 13% with PBC and 7% with PSC. In the univariate analysis the overlap syndrome was associated with male gender (P = 0.01), age < 35 years (P < 0.0001), histopathological aspect of cholestasis (P < 0.0001), suboptimal response to treatment (P < 0.0001) and probable AIH (P < 0.0001). Age < 35 years, probable AIH and the absence of anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) have been identified as independent indicators of the overlap diagnosis by the logistic regression analysis. Patients with overlap syndrome between AIH and primary cholestatic liver disease are frequently diagnosed in clinical practice, representing 20% of AIH cases in our study. The independent predictive factors associated with the diagnosis of overlap syndrome are young age, ANA(-) profile, and probable diagnosis according with the scoring system for AIH.

A method of real-time fault diagnosis for power transformers based on vibration analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Kaixing; Huang, Hai; Zhou, Jianping; Shen, Yimin; Li, Yujie

2015-11-01

In this paper, a novel probability-based classification model is proposed for real-time fault detection of power transformers. First, the transformer vibration principle is introduced, and two effective feature extraction techniques are presented. Next, the details of the classification model based on support vector machine (SVM) are shown. The model also includes a binary decision tree (BDT) which divides transformers into different classes according to health state. The trained model produces posterior probabilities of membership to each predefined class for a tested vibration sample. During the experiments, the vibrations of transformers under different conditions are acquired, and the corresponding feature vectors are used to train the SVM classifiers. The effectiveness of this model is illustrated experimentally on typical in-service transformers. The consistency between the results of the proposed model and the actual condition of the test transformers indicates that the model can be used as a reliable method for transformer fault detection.

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Logue, Daniel R.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which maximizes the use of available resources. Increased implementation of approaches that consider detection error promote ecological advancements and conservation and management decisions that are better informed.

Modulations of stratospheric ozone by volcanic eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blanchette, Christian; Mcconnell, John C.

1994-01-01

We have used a time series of aerosol surface based on the measurements of Hofmann to investigate the modulation of total column ozone caused by the perturbation to gas phase chemistry by the reaction N2O5(gas) + H2O(aero) yields 2HNO3(gas) on the surface of stratospheric aerosols. We have tested a range of values for its reaction probability, gamma = 0.02, 0.13, and 0.26 which we compared to unperturbed homogeneous chemistry. Our analysis spans a period from Jan. 1974 to Oct. 1994. The results suggest that if lower values of gamma are the norm then we would expect larger ozone losses for highly enhanced aerosol content that for larger values of gamma. The ozone layer is more sensitive to the magnitude of the reaction probability under background conditions than during volcanically active periods. For most conditions, the conversion of NO2 to HNO3 is saturated for reaction probability in the range of laboratory measurements, but is only absolutely saturated following major volcanic eruptions when the heterogeneous loss dominates the losses of N2O5. The ozone loss due to this heterogeneous reaction increases with the increasing chlorine load. Total ozone losses calculated are comparable to ozone losses reported from TOMS and Dobson data.

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

On defense strategies for system of systems using aggregated correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Imam, Neena; Ma, Chris Y. T.

2017-04-01

We consider a System of Systems (SoS) wherein each system Si, i = 1; 2; ... ;N, is composed of discrete cyber and physical components which can be attacked and reinforced. We characterize the disruptions using aggregate failure correlation functions given by the conditional failure probability of SoS given the failure of an individual system. We formulate the problem of ensuring the survival of SoS as a game between an attacker and a provider, each with a utility function composed of asurvival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced.more » The survival probabilities of systems satisfy simple product-form, first-order differential conditions, which simplify the Nash Equilibrium (NE) conditions. We derive the sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of SoS survival probability at NE on cost terms, correlation functions, and individual system survival probabilities.We apply these results to a simplified model of distributed cloud computing infrastructure.« less

Risk analysis for roadways subjected to multiple landslide-related hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corominas, Jordi; Mavrouli, Olga

2014-05-01

Roadways through mountainous terrain often involve cuts and landslide areas whose stability is precarious and require protection and stabilization works. To optimize the allocation of resources, government and technical offices are increasingly interested in both the risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis has to consider the hazard occurrence and the consequences. The consequences can be both direct and indirect. The former include the costs regarding the repair of the roadway, the damage of vehicles and the potential fatalities, while the latter refer to the costs related to the diversion of vehicles, the excess of distance travelled, the time differences, and tolls. The type of slope instabilities that may affect a roadway may vary and its effects as well. Most current approaches either consider a single hazardous phenomenon each time, or if applied at small (for example national) scale, they do not take into account local conditions at each section of the roadway. The objective of this work is the development of a simple and comprehensive methodology for the assessment of the risk due to multiple hazards along roadways, integrating different landslide types that include rockfalls, debris flows and considering as well the potential failure of retaining walls. To quantify risk, all hazards are expressed with a common term: their probability of occurrence. The methodology takes into consideration the specific local conditions along the roadway. For rockfalls and debris flow a variety of methods for assessing the probability of occurrence exists. To assess the annual probability of failure of retaining walls we use an indicator-based model that provides a hazard index. The model parameters consist in the design safety factor, and further anchorage design and construction parameters. The probability of failure is evaluated in function of the hazard index and next corrected (in terms of order of magnitude) according to in situ observations for increase of two dynamic factors: the service load and the wall deformation. The consequences are then calculated for each hazard type according to its characteristics (mechanism, magnitude, frequency). The difference of this method in comparison with other methodologies for landslide-related hazards lies in the hazard scenarios and consequence profiles that are investigated. The depth of analysis permits to account for local conditions either concerning the hazard or the consequences (the latter with respect to the very particular characteristics of the roadway such as traffic, number of lanes, velocity…). Furthermore it provides an extensive list of quantitative risk descriptors, including both individual and collective ones. The methodology was made automatic using the data sheets by Microsoft Excel. The results can be used to support decision-taking for the planning of protection measures. Gaps in knowledge and restrictions are discussed as well.

Single, Complete, Probability Spaces Consistent With EPR-Bohm-Bell Experimental Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avis, David; Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid; Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-03-01

We show that paradoxical consequences of violations of Bell's inequality are induced by the use of an unsuitable probabilistic description for the EPR-Bohm-Bell experiment. The conventional description (due to Bell) is based on a combination of statistical data collected for different settings of polarization beam splitters (PBSs). In fact, such data consists of some conditional probabilities which only partially define a probability space. Ignoring this conditioning leads to apparent contradictions in the classical probabilistic model (due to Kolmogorov). We show how to make a completely consistent probabilistic model by taking into account the probabilities of selecting the settings of the PBSs. Our model matches both the experimental data and is consistent with classical probability theory.

Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

PubMed

Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

2015-04-01

This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Information Analysis Automation Display Content on Human Judgment Performance in Noisy Environments

PubMed Central

Bass, Ellen J.; Baumgart, Leigh A.; Shepley, Kathryn Klein

2014-01-01

Displaying both the strategy that information analysis automation employs to makes its judgments and variability in the task environment may improve human judgment performance, especially in cases where this variability impacts the judgment performance of the information analysis automation. This work investigated the contribution of providing either information analysis automation strategy information, task environment information, or both, on human judgment performance in a domain where noisy sensor data are used by both the human and the information analysis automation to make judgments. In a simplified air traffic conflict prediction experiment, 32 participants made probability of horizontal conflict judgments under different display content conditions. After being exposed to the information analysis automation, judgment achievement significantly improved for all participants as compared to judgments without any of the automation's information. Participants provided with additional display content pertaining to cue variability in the task environment had significantly higher aided judgment achievement compared to those provided with only the automation's judgment of a probability of conflict. When designing information analysis automation for environments where the automation's judgment achievement is impacted by noisy environmental data, it may be beneficial to show additional task environment information to the human judge in order to improve judgment performance. PMID:24847184

Probabilistic Approach to Conditional Probability of Release of Hazardous Materials from Railroad Tank Cars during Accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-13

This paper describes a probabilistic approach to estimate the conditional probability of release of hazardous materials from railroad tank cars during train accidents. Monte Carlo methods are used in developing a probabilistic model to simulate head ...

The Dependence Structure of Conditional Probabilities in a Contingency Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joarder, Anwar H.; Al-Sabah, Walid S.

2002-01-01

Conditional probability and statistical independence can be better explained with contingency tables. In this note some special cases of 2 x 2 contingency tables are considered. In turn an interesting insight into statistical dependence as well as independence of events is obtained.

Comparison of Aperture Averaging and Receiver Diversity Techniques for Free Space Optical Links in Presence of Turbulence and Various Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, Prabhmandeep; Jain, Virander Kumar; Kar, Subrat

2014-12-01

In this paper, we investigate the performance of a Free Space Optic (FSO) link considering the impairments caused by the presence of various weather conditions such as very clear air, drizzle, haze, fog, etc., and turbulence in the atmosphere. Analytic expression for the outage probability is derived using the gamma-gamma distribution for turbulence and accounting the effect of weather conditions using the Beer-Lambert's law. The effect of receiver diversity schemes using aperture averaging and array receivers on the outage probability is studied and compared. As the aperture diameter is increased, the outage probability decreases irrespective of the turbulence strength (weak, moderate and strong) and weather conditions. Similar effects are observed when the number of direct detection receivers in the array are increased. However, it is seen that as the desired level of performance in terms of the outage probability decreases, array receiver becomes the preferred choice as compared to the receiver with aperture averaging.

Structural analysis of vibroacoustical processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gromov, A. P.; Myasnikov, L. L.; Myasnikova, Y. N.; Finagin, B. A.

1973-01-01

The method of automatic identification of acoustical signals, by means of the segmentation was used to investigate noises and vibrations in machines and mechanisms, for cybernetic diagnostics. The structural analysis consists of presentation of a noise or vibroacoustical signal as a sequence of segments, determined by the time quantization, in which each segment is characterized by specific spectral characteristics. The structural spectrum is plotted as a histogram of the segments, also as a relation of the probability density of appearance of a segment to the segment type. It is assumed that the conditions of ergodic processes are maintained.

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2010-01-01

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

BIODEGRADATION PROBABILITY PROGRAM (BIODEG)

EPA Science Inventory

The Biodegradation Probability Program (BIODEG) calculates the probability that a chemical under aerobic conditions with mixed cultures of microorganisms will biodegrade rapidly or slowly. It uses fragment constants developed using multiple linear and non-linear regressions and d...

Probabilistic Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Single Input Single Output Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brett A.; Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.

2005-01-01

The current standards for handling uncertainty in control systems use interval bounds for definition of the uncertain parameters. This approach gives no information about the likelihood of system performance, but simply gives the response bounds. When used in design, current methods of m-analysis and can lead to overly conservative controller design. With these methods, worst case conditions are weighted equally with the most likely conditions. This research explores a unique approach for probabilistic analysis of control systems. Current reliability methods are examined showing the strong areas of each in handling probability. A hybrid method is developed using these reliability tools for efficiently propagating probabilistic uncertainty through classical control analysis problems. The method developed is applied to classical response analysis as well as analysis methods that explore the effects of the uncertain parameters on stability and performance metrics. The benefits of using this hybrid approach for calculating the mean and variance of responses cumulative distribution functions are shown. Results of the probabilistic analysis of a missile pitch control system, and a non-collocated mass spring system, show the added information provided by this hybrid analysis.

Statistical analysis of landing contact conditions for three lifting body research vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, R. R.

1972-01-01

The landing contact conditions for the HL-10, M2-F2/F3, and the X-24A lifting body vehicles are analyzed statistically for 81 landings. The landing contact parameters analyzed are true airspeed, peak normal acceleration at the center of gravity, roll angle, and roll velocity. Ground measurement parameters analyzed are lateral and longitudinal distance from intended touchdown, lateral distance from touchdown to full stop, and rollout distance. The results are presented in the form of histograms for frequency distributions and cumulative frequency distribution probability curves with a Pearson Type 3 curve fit for extrapolation purposes.

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

Enhanced low-template DNA analysis conditions and investigation of allele dropout patterns.

PubMed

Hedell, Ronny; Dufva, Charlotte; Ansell, Ricky; Mostad, Petter; Hedman, Johannes

2015-01-01

Forensic DNA analysis applying PCR enables profiling of minute biological samples. Enhanced analysis conditions can be applied to further push the limit of detection, coming with the risk of visualising artefacts and allele imbalances. We have evaluated the consecutive increase of PCR cycles from 30 to 35 to investigate the limitations of low-template (LT) DNA analysis, applying the short tandem repeat (STR) analysis kit PowerPlex ESX 16. Mock crime scene DNA extracts of four different quantities (from around 8-84 pg) were tested. All PCR products were analysed using 5, 10 and 20 capillary electrophoresis (CE) injection seconds. Bayesian models describing allele dropout patterns, allele peak heights and heterozygote balance were developed to assess the overall improvements in EPG quality with altered PCR/CE settings. The models were also used to evaluate the impact of amplicon length, STR marker and fluorescent label on the risk for allele dropout. The allele dropout probability decreased for each PCR cycle increment from 30 to 33 PCR cycles. Irrespective of DNA amount, the dropout probability was not affected by further increasing the number of PCR cycles. For the 42 and 84 pg samples, mainly complete DNA profiles were generated applying 32 PCR cycles. For the 8 and 17 pg samples, the allele dropouts decreased from 100% using 30 cycles to about 75% and 20%, respectively. The results for 33, 34 and 35 PCR cycles indicated that heterozygote balance and stutter ratio were mainly affected by DNA amount, and not directly by PCR cycle number and CE injection settings. We found 32 and 33 PCR cycles with 10 CE injection seconds to be optimal, as 34 and 35 PCR cycles did not improve allele detection and also included CE saturation problems. We find allele dropout probability differences between several STR markers. Markers labelled with the fluorescent dyes CXR-ET (red in electropherogram) and TMR-ET (shown as black) generally have higher dropout risks compared with those labelled with JOE (green) and fluorescein (blue). Overall, the marker D10S1248 has the lowest allele dropout probability and D8S1179 the highest. The marker effect is mainly pronounced for 30-32 PCR cycles. Such effects would not be expected if the amplification efficiencies were identical for all markers. Understanding allele dropout risks and the variability in peak heights and balances is important for correct interpretation of forensic DNA profiles. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization of Second Fault Detection Thresholds to Maximize Mission POS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anzalone, Evan

2018-01-01

In order to support manned spaceflight safety requirements, the Space Launch System (SLS) has defined program-level requirements for key systems to ensure successful operation under single fault conditions. To accommodate this with regards to Navigation, the SLS utilizes an internally redundant Inertial Navigation System (INS) with built-in capability to detect, isolate, and recover from first failure conditions and still maintain adherence to performance requirements. The unit utilizes multiple hardware- and software-level techniques to enable detection, isolation, and recovery from these events in terms of its built-in Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) algorithms. Successful operation is defined in terms of sufficient navigation accuracy at insertion while operating under worst case single sensor outages (gyroscope and accelerometer faults at launch). In addition to first fault detection and recovery, the SLS program has also levied requirements relating to the capability of the INS to detect a second fault, tracking any unacceptable uncertainty in knowledge of the vehicle's state. This detection functionality is required in order to feed abort analysis and ensure crew safety. Increases in navigation state error and sensor faults can drive the vehicle outside of its operational as-designed environments and outside of its performance envelope causing loss of mission, or worse, loss of crew. The criteria for operation under second faults allows for a larger set of achievable missions in terms of potential fault conditions, due to the INS operating at the edge of its capability. As this performance is defined and controlled at the vehicle level, it allows for the use of system level margins to increase probability of mission success on the operational edges of the design space. Due to the implications of the vehicle response to abort conditions (such as a potentially failed INS), it is important to consider a wide range of failure scenarios in terms of both magnitude and time. As such, the Navigation team is taking advantage of the INS's capability to schedule and change fault detection thresholds in flight. These values are optimized along a nominal trajectory in order to maximize probability of mission success, and reducing the probability of false positives (defined as when the INS would report a second fault condition resulting in loss of mission, but the vehicle would still meet insertion requirements within system-level margins). This paper will describe an optimization approach using Genetic Algorithms to tune the threshold parameters to maximize vehicle resilience to second fault events as a function of potential fault magnitude and time of fault over an ascent mission profile. The analysis approach, and performance assessment of the results will be presented to demonstrate the applicability of this process to second fault detection to maximize mission probability of success.

Cyber-Physical Correlations for Infrastructure Resilience: A Game-Theoretic Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; He, Fei; Ma, Chris Y. T.

In several critical infrastructures, the cyber and physical parts are correlated so that disruptions to one affect the other and hence the whole system. These correlations may be exploited to strategically launch components attacks, and hence must be accounted for ensuring the infrastructure resilience, specified by its survival probability. We characterize the cyber-physical interactions at two levels: (i) the failure correlation function specifies the conditional survival probability of cyber sub-infrastructure given the physical sub-infrastructure as a function of their marginal probabilities, and (ii) the individual survival probabilities of both sub-infrastructures are characterized by first-order differential conditions. We formulate a resiliencemore » problem for infrastructures composed of discrete components as a game between the provider and attacker, wherein their utility functions consist of an infrastructure survival probability term and a cost term expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions and sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost term, correlation function and sub-infrastructure survival probabilities. These results generalize earlier ones based on linear failure correlation functions and independent component failures. We apply the results to models of cloud computing infrastructures and energy grids.« less

Fall 2014 SEI Research Review Probabilistic Analysis of Time Sensitive Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-28

Osmosis SMC Tool Osmosis is a tool for Statistical Model Checking (SMC) with Semantic Importance Sampling. • Input model is written in subset of C...ASSERT() statements in model indicate conditions that must hold. • Input probability distributions defined by the user. • Osmosis returns the...on: – Target relative error, or – Set number of simulations Osmosis Main Algorithm 1 http://dreal.cs.cmu.edu/ (?⃑?): Indicator

Translational Genomics Research Institute: Identification of Pathways Enriched with Condition-Specific Statistical Dependencies Across Four Subtypes of Glioblastoma Multiforme | Office of Cancer Genomics

Cancer.gov

Evaluation of Differential DependencY (EDDY) is a statistical test for the differential dependency relationship of a set of genes between two given conditions. For each condition, possible dependency network structures are enumerated and their likelihoods are computed to represent a probability distribution of dependency networks. The difference between the probability distributions of dependency networks is computed between conditions, and its statistical significance is evaluated with random permutations of condition labels on the samples.  

Translational Genomics Research Institute (TGen): Identification of Pathways Enriched with Condition-Specific Statistical Dependencies Across Four Subtypes of Glioblastoma Multiforme | Office of Cancer Genomics

Cancer.gov

Evaluation of Differential DependencY (EDDY) is a statistical test for the differential dependency relationship of a set of genes between two given conditions. For each condition, possible dependency network structures are enumerated and their likelihoods are computed to represent a probability distribution of dependency networks. The difference between the probability distributions of dependency networks is computed between conditions, and its statistical significance is evaluated with random permutations of condition labels on the samples.  

Exploring the Specifications of Spatial Adjacencies and Weights in Bayesian Spatial Modeling with Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Priors in a Small-area Study of Fall Injuries

PubMed Central

Law, Jane

2016-01-01

Intrinsic conditional autoregressive modeling in a Bayeisan hierarchical framework has been increasingly applied in small-area ecological studies. This study explores the specifications of spatial structure in this Bayesian framework in two aspects: adjacency, i.e., the set of neighbor(s) for each area; and (spatial) weight for each pair of neighbors. Our analysis was based on a small-area study of falling injuries among people age 65 and older in Ontario, Canada, that was aimed to estimate risks and identify risk factors of such falls. In the case study, we observed incorrect adjacencies information caused by deficiencies in the digital map itself. Further, when equal weights was replaced by weights based on a variable of expected count, the range of estimated risks increased, the number of areas with probability of estimated risk greater than one at different probability thresholds increased, and model fit improved. More importantly, significance of a risk factor diminished. Further research to thoroughly investigate different methods of variable weights; quantify the influence of specifications of spatial weights; and develop strategies for better defining spatial structure of a map in small-area analysis in Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling is recommended. PMID:29546147

Conditional Probabilities and Collapse in Quantum Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laura, Roberto; Vanni, Leonardo

2008-09-01

We show that including both the system and the apparatus in the quantum description of the measurement process, and using the concept of conditional probabilities, it is possible to deduce the statistical operator of the system after a measurement with a given result, which gives the probability distribution for all possible consecutive measurements on the system. This statistical operator, representing the state of the system after the first measurement, is in general not the same that would be obtained using the postulate of collapse.

Probabilities of good, marginal, and poor flying conditions for space shuttle ferry flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiting, D. M.; Guttman, N. B.

1977-01-01

Empirical probabilities are provided for good, marginal, and poor flying weather for ferrying the Space Shuttle Orbiter from Edwards AFB, California, to Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and from Edwards AFB to Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama. Results are given by month for each overall route plus segments of each route. The criteria for defining a day as good, marginal, or poor and the method of computing the relative frequencies and conditional probabilities for monthly reference periods are described.

Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odafe, Victor U.

2011-01-01

Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

The Efficacy of Using Diagrams When Solving Probability Word Problems in College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beitzel, Brian D.; Staley, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Previous experiments have shown a deleterious effect of visual representations on college students' ability to solve total- and joint-probability word problems. The present experiments used conditional-probability problems, known to be more difficult than total- and joint-probability problems. The diagram group was instructed in how to use tree…

Statistics concerning the Apollo command module water landing, including the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, sucessful impact, and body X-axis loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitnah, A. M.; Howes, D. B.

1971-01-01

Statistical information for the Apollo command module water landings is presented. This information includes the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, a successful impact, and body X-axis loads of various magnitudes.

Spatial prediction models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability-based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...

Random forest models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA

EPA Science Inventory

The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...

GEOGRAPHIC-SPECIFIC WATER QUALITY CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT WITH MONITORING DATA USING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES - A PROPOSED APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

A conditional probability approach using monitoring data to develop geographic-specific water quality criteria for protection of aquatic life is presented. Typical methods to develop criteria using existing monitoring data are limited by two issues: (1) how to extrapolate to an...

Essential health care among Mexican indigenous people in a universal coverage context.

PubMed

Servan-Mori, Edson; Pelcastre-Villafuerte, Blanca; Heredia-Pi, Ileana; Montoya-Rodríguez, Arain

2014-01-01

To analyze the influence of indigenous condition on essential health care among Mexican children, older people and women in reproductive age. The influence of indigenous condition on the probability of receiving medical care due to acute respiratory infection (ARI) and acute diarrheal disease (ADD), vaccination coverage; and antenatal care (ANC) was analyzed using the 2012 National Health Survey and non-experimental matching methods. Indigenous condition does not influence per-se vaccination coverage (in < 1 year), probability of attention of ARI's and ADD's as well as, timely, frequent, and quality ANC. Being indigenous and older adult increases 9% the probability of receiving a fulfilled vaccination schedule. Unfavorable structural conditions in which Mexican indigenous live constitutes the persistent mechanisms of their health vulnerability. Public policy should consider this level of intervention, in a way that intensive and focalized health strategies contribute to improve their health condition and life.

Multifractal diffusion entropy analysis: Optimal bin width of probability histograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jizba, Petr; Korbel, Jan

2014-11-01

In the framework of Multifractal Diffusion Entropy Analysis we propose a method for choosing an optimal bin-width in histograms generated from underlying probability distributions of interest. The method presented uses techniques of Rényi’s entropy and the mean squared error analysis to discuss the conditions under which the error in the multifractal spectrum estimation is minimal. We illustrate the utility of our approach by focusing on a scaling behavior of financial time series. In particular, we analyze the S&P500 stock index as sampled at a daily rate in the time period 1950-2013. In order to demonstrate a strength of the method proposed we compare the multifractal δ-spectrum for various bin-widths and show the robustness of the method, especially for large values of q. For such values, other methods in use, e.g., those based on moment estimation, tend to fail for heavy-tailed data or data with long correlations. Connection between the δ-spectrum and Rényi’s q parameter is also discussed and elucidated on a simple example of multiscale time series.

Hierarchical models and the analysis of bird survey information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

2003-01-01

Management of birds often requires analysis of collections of estimates. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach to the analysis of these data, in which parameters associated with the individual species estimates are treated as random variables, and probability statements are made about the species parameters conditioned on the data. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is used to fit the hierarchical model. This approach is computer intensive, and is based upon simulation. MCMC allows for estimation both of parameters and of derived statistics. To illustrate the application of this method, we use the case in which we are interested in attributes of a collection of estimates of population change. Using data for 28 species of grassland-breeding birds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we estimate the number of species with increasing populations, provide precision-adjusted rankings of species trends, and describe a measure of population stability as the probability that the trend for a species is within a certain interval. Hierarchical models can be applied to a variety of bird survey applications, and we are investigating their use in estimation of population change from survey data.

Synthesis and analysis of discriminators under influence of broadband non-Gaussian noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artyushenko, V. M.; Volovach, V. I.

2018-01-01

We considered the problems of the synthesis and analysis of discriminators, when the useful signal is exposed to non-Gaussian additive broadband noise. It is shown that in this case, the discriminator of the tracking meter should contain the nonlinear transformation unit, the characteristics of which are determined by the Fisher information relative to the probability density function of the mixture of non-Gaussian broadband noise and mismatch errors. The parameters of the discriminatory and phase characteristics of the discriminators working under the above conditions are obtained. It is shown that the efficiency of non-linear processing depends on the ratio of power of FM noise to the power of Gaussian noise. The analysis of the information loss of signal transformation caused by the linear section of discriminatory characteristics of the unit of nonlinear transformations of the discriminator is carried out. It is shown that the average slope of the nonlinear transformation characteristic is determined by the Fisher information relative to the probability density function of the mixture of non-Gaussian noise and mismatch errors.

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

2017-11-01

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Prevalence and correlates of psychosocial conditions among people living with HIV in southern India.

PubMed

Chan, Brian T; Pradeep, Amrose; Prasad, Lakshmi; Murugesan, Vinothini; Chandrasekaran, Ezhilarasi; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Mayer, Kenneth H

2017-06-01

Psychosocial conditions such as depression, intimate partner violence (IPV), and history of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) have been associated with poor HIV-related outcomes. In India, which has the third largest HIV epidemic in the world, little is understood about the impact of psychosocial conditions on people living with HIV (PLHIV). We aimed to understand the prevalence and correlates of psychosocial conditions among PLHIV entering into HIV care at the Y.R. Gaitonde Centre for AIDS Research and Education in Chennai, India. Thirteen questions were added to the standard voluntary counseling and testing questionnaire, including the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (a depression scale) and questions assessing for CSA and IPV. We fitted logistic regression models, stratified by gender, with psychosocial condition as the outcome of interest and substance use variables and socio-demographic variables as the correlates of interest. Three hundred and eighty-three persons were enrolled into the study; of these, 253 (66%) tested positive for HIV, including 149 men and 104 women, and were included in the models. More than one-quarter (28%) of the men and 19% of the women reported at least one psychosocial condition (probable depression, CSA, or IPV). In adjusted analysis, current alcohol use was associated with greater than two times higher odds of a psychosocial condition (Adjusted Odds Ratio = 2.24, 95% CI, 1.04-4.85) among men. In conclusion, we estimated the prevalence of probable depression, CSA, and IPV among PLHIV presenting for HIV care in southern India and found that, among male PLHIV, alcohol use was associated with a markedly higher odds of reporting a psychosocial condition. Further study is needed to characterize alcohol use among male PLHIV and the possible deleterious impact of psychosocial conditions and alcohol use on HIV-related outcomes in India.

What Are Probability Surveys used by the National Aquatic Resource Surveys?

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

Application of Wind Fetch and Wave Models for Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohweder, Jason J.; Rogala, James T.; Johnson, Barry L.; Anderson, Dennis; Clark, Steve; Chamberlin, Ferris; Runyon, Kip

2008-01-01

Models based upon coastal engineering equations have been developed to quantify wind fetch length and several physical wave characteristics including significant height, length, peak period, maximum orbital velocity, and shear stress. These models, developed using Environmental Systems Research Institute's ArcGIS 9.2 Geographic Information System platform, were used to quantify differences in proposed island construction designs for three Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects (HREPs) in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers St. Paul District (Capoli Slough and Harpers Slough) and St. Louis District (Swan Lake). Weighted wind fetch was calculated using land cover data supplied by the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) for each island design scenario for all three HREPs. Figures and graphs were created to depict the results of this analysis. The difference in weighted wind fetch from existing conditions to each potential future island design was calculated for Capoli and Harpers Slough HREPs. A simplistic method for calculating sediment suspension probability was also applied to the HREPs in the St. Paul District. This analysis involved determining the percentage of days that maximum orbital wave velocity calculated over the growing seasons of 2002-2007 exceeded a threshold value taken from the literature where fine unconsolidated sediments may become suspended. This analysis also evaluated the difference in sediment suspension probability from existing conditions to the potential island designs. Bathymetric data used in the analysis were collected from the LTRMP and wind direction and magnitude data were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center.

Predictability of Sleep in Patients with Insomnia

PubMed Central

Vallières, Annie; Ivers, Hans; Beaulieu-Bonneau, Simon; Morin, Charles M.

2011-01-01

Study Objectives: To evaluate whether the night-to-night variability in insomnia follows specific predictable patterns and to characterize sleep patterns using objective sleep and clinical variables. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: University-affiliated sleep disorders center. Participants: 146 participants suffering from chronic and primary insomnia. Measurements and Results: Daily sleep diaries were completed for an average of 48 days and self-reported questionnaires once. Three nights were spent in the sleep laboratory for polysomnographic (PSG) assessment. Sleep efficiency, sleep onset latency, wake after sleep onset, and total sleep time were derived from sleep diaries and PSG. Time-series diary data were used to compute conditional probabilities of having an insomnia night after 1, 2, or 3 consecutive insomnia night(s). Conditional probabilities were submitted to a k-means cluster analysis. A 3-cluster solution was retained. One cluster included 38 participants exhibiting an unpredictable insomnia pattern. Another included 30 participants with a low and decreasing probability to have an insomnia night. The last cluster included 49 participants exhibiting a high probability to have insomnia every night. Clusters differed on age, insomnia severity, and mental fatigue, and on subjective sleep variables, but not on PSG sleep variables. Conclusion: These findings replicate our previous study and provide additional evidence that unpredictability is a less prevalent feature of insomnia than suggested previously in the literature. The presence of the 3 clusters is discussed in term of sleep perception and sleep homeostasis dysregulation. Citation: Vallières A; Ivers H; Beaulieu-Bonneau S; Morin CM. Predictability of sleep in patients with insomnia. SLEEP 2011;34(5):609-617. PMID:21532954

Burden of disease and costs of exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals in the European Union: an updated analysis.

PubMed

Trasande, L; Zoeller, R T; Hass, U; Kortenkamp, A; Grandjean, P; Myers, J P; DiGangi, J; Hunt, P M; Rudel, R; Sathyanarayana, S; Bellanger, M; Hauser, R; Legler, J; Skakkebaek, N E; Heindel, J J

2016-07-01

A previous report documented that endocrine disrupting chemicals contribute substantially to certain forms of disease and disability. In the present analysis, our main objective was to update a range of health and economic costs that can be reasonably attributed to endocrine disrupting chemical exposures in the European Union, leveraging new burden and disease cost estimates of female reproductive conditions from accompanying report. Expert panels evaluated the epidemiologic evidence, using adapted criteria from the WHO Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group, and evaluated laboratory and animal evidence of endocrine disruption using definitions recently promulgated by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. The Delphi method was used to make decisions on the strength of the data. Expert panels consensus was achieved for probable (>20%) endocrine disrupting chemical causation for IQ loss and associated intellectual disability; autism; attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; endometriosis; fibroids; childhood obesity; adult obesity; adult diabetes; cryptorchidism; male infertility, and mortality associated with reduced testosterone. Accounting for probability of causation, and using the midpoint of each range for probability of causation, Monte Carlo simulations produced a median annual cost of €163 billion (1.28% of EU Gross Domestic Product) across 1000 simulations. We conclude that endocrine disrupting chemical exposures in the EU are likely to contribute substantially to disease and dysfunction across the life course with costs in the hundreds of billions of Euros per year. These estimates represent only those endocrine disrupting chemicals with the highest probability of causation; a broader analysis would have produced greater estimates of burden of disease and costs. © 2016 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

F. Perry; R. Youngs

The purpose of this scientific analysis report is threefold: (1) Present a conceptual framework of igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) consistent with the volcanic and tectonic history of this region and the assessment of this history by experts who participated in the probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis (PVHA) (CRWMS M&O 1996 [DIRS 100116]). Conceptual models presented in the PVHA are summarized and applied in areas in which new information has been presented. Alternative conceptual models are discussed, as well as their impact on probability models. The relationship between volcanic source zones defined in the PVHA and structural featuresmore » of the YMR are described based on discussions in the PVHA and studies presented since the PVHA. (2) Present revised probability calculations based on PVHA outputs for a repository footprint proposed in 2003 (BSC 2003 [DIRS 162289]), rather than the footprint used at the time of the PVHA. This analysis report also calculates the probability of an eruptive center(s) forming within the repository footprint using information developed in the PVHA. Probability distributions are presented for the length and orientation of volcanic dikes located within the repository footprint and for the number of eruptive centers (conditional on a dike intersecting the repository) located within the repository footprint. (3) Document sensitivity studies that analyze how the presence of potentially buried basaltic volcanoes may affect the computed frequency of intersection of the repository footprint by a basaltic dike. These sensitivity studies are prompted by aeromagnetic data collected in 1999, indicating the possible presence of previously unrecognized buried volcanoes in the YMR (Blakely et al. 2000 [DIRS 151881]; O'Leary et al. 2002 [DIRS 158468]). The results of the sensitivity studies are for informational purposes only and are not to be used for purposes of assessing repository performance.« less

Conditional Survival in Pediatric Malignancies: Analysis of data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program

PubMed Central

Mertens, Ann C; Yong, Jian; Dietz, Andrew; Kreiter, Erin; Yasui, Yutaka; Bleyer, Archie; Armstrong, Gregory T; Robison, Leslie L; Wasilewski-Masker, Karen

2015-01-01

Background Long-term survivors of pediatric cancer are at risk for life-threatening late effects of their cancer. Previous studies have shown excesses in long-term mortality within high-risk groups defined by demographic and treatment characteristics. Methods To investigate conditional survival in a pediatric cancer population, we performed an analysis of conditional survival in the original Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) cohort and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database registry. The overall probability of death for patients in 5 years and 10 years after they survived 5, 10, 15, and 20 years since cancer diagnosis, and cause-specific death in 10 years for 5-year survivors were estimated using the cumulative incidence method. Results Among CCSS and SEER patients who were alive 5 years post cancer diagnosis, within each diagnosis group at least 92% are alive in the subsequent 5 years, except leukemia patients of whom only 88% of 5-year survivors remain alive in the subsequent 5 years. The probability of all-cause mortality in the next 10 years on patients who survived at least 5 years after diagnosis, was 8.8% in CCSS and 10.6% in SEER, approximately three quarter of which were due to neoplasms as causes of death. Conclusion The risk of death of pediatric cancer survivors in 10 years can vary between diagnosis groups by at most 12% even up to 20 years post diagnosis. This information is clinically important in counseling patients on their conditional survival, particularly when survivors are seen in long-term follow-up. PMID:25557134

Evidential Networks for Fault Tree Analysis with Imprecise Knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianping; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Liu, Yu; Li, Yan-Feng

2012-06-01

Fault tree analysis (FTA), as one of the powerful tools in reliability engineering, has been widely used to enhance system quality attributes. In most fault tree analyses, precise values are adopted to represent the probabilities of occurrence of those events. Due to the lack of sufficient data or imprecision of existing data at the early stage of product design, it is often difficult to accurately estimate the failure rates of individual events or the probabilities of occurrence of the events. Therefore, such imprecision and uncertainty need to be taken into account in reliability analysis. In this paper, the evidential networks (EN) are employed to quantify and propagate the aforementioned uncertainty and imprecision in fault tree analysis. The detailed conversion processes of some logic gates to EN are described in fault tree (FT). The figures of the logic gates and the converted equivalent EN, together with the associated truth tables and the conditional belief mass tables, are also presented in this work. The new epistemic importance is proposed to describe the effect of ignorance degree of event. The fault tree of an aircraft engine damaged by oil filter plugs is presented to demonstrate the proposed method.

The influence of footwear sole hardness on slip characteristics and slip-induced falls in young adults.

PubMed

Tsai, Yi-Ju; Powers, Christopher M

2013-01-01

Theoretically, a shoe that provides less friction could result in a greater slip distance and foot slipping velocity, thereby increasing the likelihood of falling. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of sole hardness on the probability of slip-induced falls. Forty young adults were randomized into a hard or a soft sole shoe group, and tested under both nonslippery and slippery floor conditions using a motion analysis system. The proportions of fall events in the hard- and soft-soled shoe groups were not statistically different. No differences were observed between shoe groups for average slip distance, peak and average heel velocity, and center of mass slipping velocity. A strong association was found between slip distance and the fall probability. Our results demonstrate that the probability of a slip-induced fall was not influenced by shoe hardness. Once a slip is induced, slip distance was the primary predictor of a slip-induced fall. © 2012 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

In Silico Systems Biology Analysis of Variants of Uncertain Significance in Lynch Syndrome Supports the Prioritization of Functional Molecular Validation.

PubMed

Borras, Ester; Chang, Kyle; Pande, Mala; Cuddy, Amanda; Bosch, Jennifer L; Bannon, Sarah A; Mork, Maureen E; Rodriguez-Bigas, Miguel A; Taggart, Melissa W; Lynch, Patrick M; You, Y Nancy; Vilar, Eduardo

2017-10-01

Lynch syndrome (LS) is a genetic condition secondary to germline alterations in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes with 30% of changes being variants of uncertain significance (VUS). Our aim was to perform an in silico reclassification of VUS from a large single institutional cohort that will help prioritizing functional validation. A total of 54 VUS were detected with 33 (61%) novel variants. We integrated family history, pathology, and genetic information along with supporting evidence from eight different in silico tools at the RNA and protein level. Our assessment allowed us to reclassify 54% (29/54) of the VUS as probably damaging, 13% (7/54) as possibly damaging, and 28% (15/54) as probably neutral. There are more than 1,000 VUS reported in MMR genes and our approach facilitates the prioritization of further functional efforts to assess the pathogenicity to those classified as probably damaging. Cancer Prev Res; 10(10); 580-7. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Minefield reconnaissance and detector system

DOEpatents

Butler, M.T.; Cave, S.P.; Creager, J.D.; Johnson, C.M.; Mathes, J.B.; Smith, K.J.

1994-04-26

A multi-sensor system is described for detecting the presence of objects on the surface of the ground or buried just under the surface, such as anti-personnel or anti-tank mines or the like. A remote sensor platform has a plurality of metal detector sensors and a plurality of short pulse radar sensors. The remote sensor platform is remotely controlled from a processing and control unit and signals from the remote sensor platform are sent to the processing and control unit where they are individually evaluated in separate data analysis subprocess steps to obtain a probability score for each of the pluralities of sensors. These probability scores are combined in a fusion subprocess step by comparing score sets to a probability table which is derived based upon the historical incidence of object present conditions given that score set. A decision making rule is applied to provide an output which is optionally provided to a marker subprocess for controlling a marker device to mark the location of found objects. 7 figures.

Game-Theoretic strategies for systems of components using product-form utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; Ma, Cheng-Yu; Hausken, K.

Many critical infrastructures are composed of multiple systems of components which are correlated so that disruptions to one may propagate to others. We consider such infrastructures with correlations characterized in two ways: (i) an aggregate failure correlation function specifies the conditional failure probability of the infrastructure given the failure of an individual system, and (ii) a pairwise correlation function between two systems specifies the failure probability of one system given the failure of the other. We formulate a game for ensuring the resilience of the infrastructure, wherein the utility functions of the provider and attacker are products of an infrastructuremore » survival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the numbers of system components attacked and reinforced. The survival probabilities of individual systems satisfy first-order differential conditions that lead to simple Nash Equilibrium conditions. We then derive sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost terms, correlation functions, and individual system survival probabilities. We apply these results to simplified models of distributed cloud computing and energy grid infrastructures.« less

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle

2015-03-31

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼ 100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm-dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the "exceptional" 2012-2014 drought in California.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle

2015-01-01

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California. PMID:25733875

Validation of use of the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Urinary Incontinence-Short Form (ICIQ-UI-SF) for impairment rating: a transversal retrospective study of 120 patients.

PubMed

Timmermans, Luc; Falez, Freddy; Mélot, Christian; Wespes, Eric

2013-09-01

A urinary incontinence impairment rating must be a highly accurate, non-invasive exploration of the condition using International Classification of Functioning (ICF)-based assessment tools. The objective of this study was to identify the best evaluation test and to determine an impairment rating model of urinary incontinence. In performing a cross-sectional study comparing successive urodynamic tests using both the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Urinary Incontinence-Short Form (ICIQ-UI-SF) and the 1-hr pad-weighing test in 120 patients, we performed statistical likelihood ratio analysis and used logistic regression to calculate the probability of urodynamic incontinence using the most significant independent predictors. Subsequently, we created a template that was based on the significant predictors and the probability of urodynamic incontinence. The mean ICIQ-UI-SF score was 13.5 ± 4.6, and the median pad test value was 8 g. The discrimination statistic (receiver operating characteristic) described how well the urodynamic observations matched the ICIQ-UI-SF scores (under curve area (UDA):0.689) and the pad test data (UDA: 0.693). Using logistic regression analysis, we demonstrated that the best independent predictors of urodynamic incontinence were the patient's age and the ICIQ-UI-SF score. The logistic regression model permitted us to construct an equation to determine the probability of urodynamic incontinence. Using these tools, we created a template to generate a probability index of urodynamic urinary incontinence. Using this probability index, relative to the patient and to the maximum impairment of the whole person (MIWP) relative to urinary incontinence, we were able to calculate a patient's permanent impairment. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

PubMed

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

Study on the abnormal data rejection and normal condition evaluation applied in wind turbine farm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Qian, Zheng; Tian, Shuangshu

2016-01-01

The condition detection of wind turbine is always an important issue which attract more and more attentions because of the rapid development of wind farm. And the on-line data analysis is also difficult since a lot of measured data is collected. In this paper, the abnormal data rejection and normal condition evaluation of wind turbine is processed. At first, since there are large amounts of abnormal data in the normal operation of wind turbine, which is probably caused by fault, maintenance downtime, power-limited operation and failure of wind speed sensor, a novel method is proposed to reject abnormal data in order to make more accurate analysis for the wind turbine condition. The core principle of this method is to fit the wind power curves by using the scatter diagram. The data outside the area covered by wind power curves is the abnormal data. The calculation shows that the abnormal data is rejected effectively. After the rejection, the vibration signals of wind turbine bearing which is a critical component are analyzed and the relationship between the vibration characteristic value and the operating condition of wind turbine is discussed. It will provide powerful support for the accurate fault analysis of wind turbine.

Secondary School Students' Reasoning about Conditional Probability, Samples, and Sampling Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prodromou, Theodosia

2016-01-01

In the Australian mathematics curriculum, Year 12 students (aged 16-17) are asked to solve conditional probability problems that involve the representation of the problem situation with two-way tables or three-dimensional diagrams and consider sampling procedures that result in different correct answers. In a small exploratory study, we…

Alternate Methods in Refining the SLS Nozzle Plug Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burbank, Scott; Allen, Andrew

2013-01-01

Numerical analysis has shown that the SLS nozzle environmental barrier (nozzle plug) design is inadequate for the prelaunch condition, which consists of two dominant loads: 1) the main engines startup pressure and 2) an environmentally induced pressure. Efforts to reduce load conservatisms included a dynamic analysis which showed a 31% higher safety factor compared to the standard static analysis. The environmental load is typically approached with a deterministic method using the worst possible combinations of pressures and temperatures. An alternate probabilistic approach, utilizing the distributions of pressures and temperatures, resulted in a 54% reduction in the environmental pressure load. A Monte Carlo simulation of environmental load that used five years of historical pressure and temperature data supported the results of the probabilistic analysis, indicating the probabilistic load is reflective of a 3-sigma condition (1 in 370 probability). Utilizing the probabilistic load analysis eliminated excessive conservatisms and will prevent a future overdesign of the nozzle plug. Employing a similar probabilistic approach to other design and analysis activities can result in realistic yet adequately conservative solutions.

UQ for Decision Making: How (at least five) Kinds of Probability Might Come Into Play

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

In 1959 IJ Good published the discussion "Kinds of Probability" in Science. Good identified (at least) five kinds. The need for (at least) a sixth kind of probability when quantifying uncertainty in the context of climate science is discussed. This discussion brings out the differences in weather-like forecasting tasks and climate-links tasks, with a focus on the effective use both of science and of modelling in support of decision making. Good also introduced the idea of a "Dynamic probability" a probability one expects to change without any additional empirical evidence; the probabilities assigned by a chess playing program when it is only half thorough its analysis being an example. This case is contrasted with the case of "Mature probabilities" where a forecast algorithm (or model) has converged on its asymptotic probabilities and the question hinges in whether or not those probabilities are expected to change significantly before the event in question occurs, even in the absence of new empirical evidence. If so, then how might one report and deploy such immature probabilities in scientific-support of decision-making rationally? Mature Probability is suggested as a useful sixth kind, although Good would doubtlessly argue that we can get by with just one, effective communication with decision makers may be enhanced by speaking as if the others existed. This again highlights the distinction between weather-like contexts and climate-like contexts. In the former context one has access to a relevant climatology (a relevant, arguably informative distribution prior to any model simulations), in the latter context that information is not available although one can fall back on the scientific basis upon which the model itself rests, and estimate the probability that the model output is in fact misinformative. This subjective "probability of a big surprise" is one way to communicate the probability of model-based information holding in practice, the probability that the information the model-based probability is conditioned on holds. It is argued that no model-based climate-like probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate of its own irrelevance, and that the clear identification of model-based probability forecasts as mature or immature, are critical elements for maintaining the credibility of science-based decision support, and can shape uncertainty quantification more widely.

Ocean rogue waves and their phase space dynamics in the limit of a linear interference model.

PubMed

Birkholz, Simon; Brée, Carsten; Veselić, Ivan; Demircan, Ayhan; Steinmeyer, Günter

2016-10-12

We reanalyse the probability for formation of extreme waves using the simple model of linear interference of a finite number of elementary waves with fixed amplitude and random phase fluctuations. Under these model assumptions no rogue waves appear when less than 10 elementary waves interfere with each other. Above this threshold rogue wave formation becomes increasingly likely, with appearance frequencies that may even exceed long-term observations by an order of magnitude. For estimation of the effective number of interfering waves, we suggest the Grassberger-Procaccia dimensional analysis of individual time series. For the ocean system, it is further shown that the resulting phase space dimension may vary, such that the threshold for rogue wave formation is not always reached. Time series analysis as well as the appearance of particular focusing wind conditions may enable an effective forecast of such rogue-wave prone situations. In particular, extracting the dimension from ocean time series allows much more specific estimation of the rogue wave probability.

Initial Results from SQUID Sensor: Analysis and Modeling for the ELF/VLF Atmospheric Noise.

PubMed

Hao, Huan; Wang, Huali; Chen, Liang; Wu, Jun; Qiu, Longqing; Rong, Liangliang

2017-02-14

In this paper, the amplitude probability density (APD) of the wideband extremely low frequency (ELF) and very low frequency (VLF) atmospheric noise is studied. The electromagnetic signals from the atmosphere, referred to herein as atmospheric noise, was recorded by a mobile low-temperature superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) receiver under magnetically unshielded conditions. In order to eliminate the adverse effect brought by the geomagnetic activities and powerline, the measured field data was preprocessed to suppress the baseline wandering and harmonics by symmetric wavelet transform and least square methods firstly. Then statistical analysis was performed for the atmospheric noise on different time and frequency scales. Finally, the wideband ELF/VLF atmospheric noise was analyzed and modeled separately. Experimental results show that, Gaussian model is appropriate to depict preprocessed ELF atmospheric noise by a hole puncher operator. While for VLF atmospheric noise, symmetric α -stable (S α S) distribution is more accurate to fit the heavy-tail of the envelope probability density function (pdf).

Atmospheric conditions, lunar phases, and childbirth: a multivariate analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochiai, Angela Megumi; Gonçalves, Fabio Luiz Teixeira; Ambrizzi, Tercio; Florentino, Lucia Cristina; Wei, Chang Yi; Soares, Alda Valeria Neves; De Araujo, Natalucia Matos; Gualda, Dulce Maria Rosa

2012-07-01

Our objective was to assess extrinsic influences upon childbirth. In a cohort of 1,826 days containing 17,417 childbirths among them 13,252 spontaneous labor admissions, we studied the influence of environment upon the high incidence of labor (defined by 75th percentile or higher), analyzed by logistic regression. The predictors of high labor admission included increases in outdoor temperature (odds ratio: 1.742, P = 0.045, 95%CI: 1.011 to 3.001), and decreases in atmospheric pressure (odds ratio: 1.269, P = 0.029, 95%CI: 1.055 to 1.483). In contrast, increases in tidal range were associated with a lower probability of high admission (odds ratio: 0.762, P = 0.030, 95%CI: 0.515 to 0.999). Lunar phase was not a predictor of high labor admission ( P = 0.339). Using multivariate analysis, increases in temperature and decreases in atmospheric pressure predicted high labor admission, and increases of tidal range, as a measurement of the lunar gravitational force, predicted a lower probability of high admission.

Initial Results from SQUID Sensor: Analysis and Modeling for the ELF/VLF Atmospheric Noise

PubMed Central

Hao, Huan; Wang, Huali; Chen, Liang; Wu, Jun; Qiu, Longqing; Rong, Liangliang

2017-01-01

In this paper, the amplitude probability density (APD) of the wideband extremely low frequency (ELF) and very low frequency (VLF) atmospheric noise is studied. The electromagnetic signals from the atmosphere, referred to herein as atmospheric noise, was recorded by a mobile low-temperature superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) receiver under magnetically unshielded conditions. In order to eliminate the adverse effect brought by the geomagnetic activities and powerline, the measured field data was preprocessed to suppress the baseline wandering and harmonics by symmetric wavelet transform and least square methods firstly. Then statistical analysis was performed for the atmospheric noise on different time and frequency scales. Finally, the wideband ELF/VLF atmospheric noise was analyzed and modeled separately. Experimental results show that, Gaussian model is appropriate to depict preprocessed ELF atmospheric noise by a hole puncher operator. While for VLF atmospheric noise, symmetric α-stable (SαS) distribution is more accurate to fit the heavy-tail of the envelope probability density function (pdf). PMID:28216590

Perturbation analysis for patch occupancy dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Nichols, James D.; McIntyre, Carol L.; Ferraz, Goncalo; Hines, James E.

2009-01-01

Perturbation analysis is a powerful tool to study population and community dynamics. This article describes expressions for sensitivity metrics reflecting changes in equilibrium occupancy resulting from small changes in the vital rates of patch occupancy dynamics (i.e., probabilities of local patch colonization and extinction). We illustrate our approach with a case study of occupancy dynamics of Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) nesting territories. Examination of the hypothesis of system equilibrium suggests that the system satisfies equilibrium conditions. Estimates of vital rates obtained using patch occupancy models are used to estimate equilibrium patch occupancy of eagles. We then compute estimates of sensitivity metrics and discuss their implications for eagle population ecology and management. Finally, we discuss the intuition underlying our sensitivity metrics and then provide examples of ecological questions that can be addressed using perturbation analyses. For instance, the sensitivity metrics lead to predictions about the relative importance of local colonization and local extinction probabilities in influencing equilibrium occupancy for rare and common species.

Ocean rogue waves and their phase space dynamics in the limit of a linear interference model

PubMed Central

Birkholz, Simon; Brée, Carsten; Veselić, Ivan; Demircan, Ayhan; Steinmeyer, Günter

2016-01-01

We reanalyse the probability for formation of extreme waves using the simple model of linear interference of a finite number of elementary waves with fixed amplitude and random phase fluctuations. Under these model assumptions no rogue waves appear when less than 10 elementary waves interfere with each other. Above this threshold rogue wave formation becomes increasingly likely, with appearance frequencies that may even exceed long-term observations by an order of magnitude. For estimation of the effective number of interfering waves, we suggest the Grassberger-Procaccia dimensional analysis of individual time series. For the ocean system, it is further shown that the resulting phase space dimension may vary, such that the threshold for rogue wave formation is not always reached. Time series analysis as well as the appearance of particular focusing wind conditions may enable an effective forecast of such rogue-wave prone situations. In particular, extracting the dimension from ocean time series allows much more specific estimation of the rogue wave probability. PMID:27731411

Site specific probability of passive acoustic detection of humpback whale calls from single fixed hydrophones.

PubMed

Helble, Tyler A; D'Spain, Gerald L; Hildebrand, John A; Campbell, Gregory S; Campbell, Richard L; Heaney, Kevin D

2013-09-01

Passive acoustic monitoring of marine mammal calls is an increasingly important method for assessing population numbers, distribution, and behavior. A common mistake in the analysis of marine mammal acoustic data is formulating conclusions about these animals without first understanding how environmental properties such as bathymetry, sediment properties, water column sound speed, and ocean acoustic noise influence the detection and character of vocalizations in the acoustic data. The approach in this paper is to use Monte Carlo simulations with a full wave field acoustic propagation model to characterize the site specific probability of detection of six types of humpback whale calls at three passive acoustic monitoring locations off the California coast. Results show that the probability of detection can vary by factors greater than ten when comparing detections across locations, or comparing detections at the same location over time, due to environmental effects. Effects of uncertainties in the inputs to the propagation model are also quantified, and the model accuracy is assessed by comparing calling statistics amassed from 24,690 humpback units recorded in the month of October 2008. Under certain conditions, the probability of detection can be estimated with uncertainties sufficiently small to allow for accurate density estimates.

The probability of object-scene co-occurrence influences object identification processes.

PubMed

Sauvé, Geneviève; Harmand, Mariane; Vanni, Léa; Brodeur, Mathieu B

2017-07-01

Contextual information allows the human brain to make predictions about the identity of objects that might be seen and irregularities between an object and its background slow down perception and identification processes. Bar and colleagues modeled the mechanisms underlying this beneficial effect suggesting that the brain stocks information about the statistical regularities of object and scene co-occurrence. Their model suggests that these recurring regularities could be conceptualized along a continuum in which the probability of seeing an object within a given scene can be high (probable condition), moderate (improbable condition) or null (impossible condition). In the present experiment, we propose to disentangle the electrophysiological correlates of these context effects by directly comparing object-scene pairs found along this continuum. We recorded the event-related potentials of 30 healthy participants (18-34 years old) and analyzed their brain activity in three time windows associated with context effects. We observed anterior negativities between 250 and 500 ms after object onset for the improbable and impossible conditions (improbable more negative than impossible) compared to the probable condition as well as a parieto-occipital positivity (improbable more positive than impossible). The brain may use different processing pathways to identify objects depending on whether the probability of co-occurrence with the scene is moderate (rely more on top-down effects) or null (rely more on bottom-up influences). The posterior positivity could index error monitoring aimed to ensure that no false information is integrated into mental representations of the world.

49 CFR 173.50 - Class 1-Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... insensitive that there is very little probability of initiation or of transition from burning to detonation under normal conditions of transport. 1 The probability of transition from burning to detonation is... contain only extremely insensitive detonating substances and which demonstrate a negligible probability of...

Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

2007-01-01

Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

An Analysis of the Ideological Work of the Discourses of "Fair Play" and Moral Education in Perpetuating Inequitable Gender Practices in PETE

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dowling, Fiona; Karhus, Svein

2011-01-01

Background: Physical education (PE) is a subject which has a long history of legitimising itself on the grounds of its contribution to pupils' social and moral welfare. It therefore seems probable that PE teacher education (PETE) might embrace recent calls for the need to re-moralise society due to the conditions of the late-modern age and not…

Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

2013-01-01

We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

Wavefront-Guided Versus Wavefront-Optimized Photorefractive Keratectomy: Visual and Military Task Performance.

PubMed

Ryan, Denise S; Sia, Rose K; Stutzman, Richard D; Pasternak, Joseph F; Howard, Robin S; Howell, Christopher L; Maurer, Tana; Torres, Mark F; Bower, Kraig S

2017-01-01

To compare visual performance, marksmanship performance, and threshold target identification following wavefront-guided (WFG) versus wavefront-optimized (WFO) photorefractive keratectomy (PRK). In this prospective, randomized clinical trial, active duty U.S. military Soldiers, age 21 or over, electing to undergo PRK were randomized to undergo WFG (n = 27) or WFO (n = 27) PRK for myopia or myopic astigmatism. Binocular visual performance was assessed preoperatively and 1, 3, and 6 months postoperatively: Super Vision Test high contrast, Super Vision Test contrast sensitivity (CS), and 25% contrast acuity with night vision goggle filter. CS function was generated testing at five spatial frequencies. Marksmanship performance in low light conditions was evaluated in a firing tunnel. Target detection and identification performance was tested for probability of identification of varying target sets and probability of detection of humans in cluttered environments. Visual performance, CS function, marksmanship, and threshold target identification demonstrated no statistically significant differences over time between the two treatments. Exploratory regression analysis of firing range tasks at 6 months showed no significant differences or correlations between procedures. Regression analysis of vehicle and handheld probability of identification showed a significant association with pretreatment performance. Both WFG and WFO PRK results translate to excellent and comparable visual and military performance. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

PubMed

Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

2000-01-01

Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

Role of the site of synaptic competition and the balance of learning forces for Hebbian encoding of probabilistic Markov sequences

PubMed Central

Bouchard, Kristofer E.; Ganguli, Surya; Brainard, Michael S.

2015-01-01

The majority of distinct sensory and motor events occur as temporally ordered sequences with rich probabilistic structure. Sequences can be characterized by the probability of transitioning from the current state to upcoming states (forward probability), as well as the probability of having transitioned to the current state from previous states (backward probability). Despite the prevalence of probabilistic sequencing of both sensory and motor events, the Hebbian mechanisms that mold synapses to reflect the statistics of experienced probabilistic sequences are not well understood. Here, we show through analytic calculations and numerical simulations that Hebbian plasticity (correlation, covariance, and STDP) with pre-synaptic competition can develop synaptic weights equal to the conditional forward transition probabilities present in the input sequence. In contrast, post-synaptic competition can develop synaptic weights proportional to the conditional backward probabilities of the same input sequence. We demonstrate that to stably reflect the conditional probability of a neuron's inputs and outputs, local Hebbian plasticity requires balance between competitive learning forces that promote synaptic differentiation and homogenizing learning forces that promote synaptic stabilization. The balance between these forces dictates a prior over the distribution of learned synaptic weights, strongly influencing both the rate at which structure emerges and the entropy of the final distribution of synaptic weights. Together, these results demonstrate a simple correspondence between the biophysical organization of neurons, the site of synaptic competition, and the temporal flow of information encoded in synaptic weights by Hebbian plasticity while highlighting the utility of balancing learning forces to accurately encode probability distributions, and prior expectations over such probability distributions. PMID:26257637

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, M.T.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Rodda, G.H.; Savidge, J.A.; Tyrrell, C.L.

2010-01-01

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

A probability index for surface zonda wind occurrence at Mendoza city through vertical sounding principal components analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Federico; Norte, Federico; Araneo, Diego

2018-01-01

The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of occurrence of zonda event at surface level from sounding data at Mendoza city, Argentine. To accomplish this goal, surface zonda wind events were previously found with an objective classification method (OCM) only considering the surface station values. Once obtained the dates and the onset time of each event, the prior closest sounding for each event was taken to realize a principal component analysis (PCA) that is used to identify the leading patterns of the vertical structure of the atmosphere previously to a zonda wind event. These components were used to construct the index model. For the PCA an entry matrix of temperature ( T) and dew point temperature (Td) anomalies for the standard levels between 850 and 300 hPa was build. The analysis yielded six significant components with a 94 % of the variance explained and the leading patterns of favorable weather conditions for the development of the phenomenon were obtained. A zonda/non-zonda indicator c can be estimated by a logistic multiple regressions depending on the PCA component loadings, determining a zonda probability index \\widehat{c} calculable from T and Td profiles and it depends on the climatological features of the region. The index showed 74.7 % efficiency. The same analysis was performed by adding surface values of T and Td from Mendoza Aero station increasing the index efficiency to 87.8 %. The results revealed four significantly correlated PCs with a major improvement in differentiating zonda cases and a reducing of the uncertainty interval.

Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmittner, A.; Urban, N.; Shakun, J. D.; Mahowald, N. M.; Clark, P. U.; Bartlein, P. J.; Mix, A. C.; Rosell-Melé, A.

2011-12-01

In 1959 IJ Good published the discussion "Kinds of Probability" in Science. Good identified (at least) five kinds. The need for (at least) a sixth kind of probability when quantifying uncertainty in the context of climate science is discussed. This discussion brings out the differences in weather-like forecasting tasks and climate-links tasks, with a focus on the effective use both of science and of modelling in support of decision making. Good also introduced the idea of a "Dynamic probability" a probability one expects to change without any additional empirical evidence; the probabilities assigned by a chess playing program when it is only half thorough its analysis being an example. This case is contrasted with the case of "Mature probabilities" where a forecast algorithm (or model) has converged on its asymptotic probabilities and the question hinges in whether or not those probabilities are expected to change significantly before the event in question occurs, even in the absence of new empirical evidence. If so, then how might one report and deploy such immature probabilities in scientific-support of decision-making rationally? Mature Probability is suggested as a useful sixth kind, although Good would doubtlessly argue that we can get by with just one, effective communication with decision makers may be enhanced by speaking as if the others existed. This again highlights the distinction between weather-like contexts and climate-like contexts. In the former context one has access to a relevant climatology (a relevant, arguably informative distribution prior to any model simulations), in the latter context that information is not available although one can fall back on the scientific basis upon which the model itself rests, and estimate the probability that the model output is in fact misinformative. This subjective "probability of a big surprise" is one way to communicate the probability of model-based information holding in practice, the probability that the information the model-based probability is conditioned on holds. It is argued that no model-based climate-like probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate of its own irrelevance, and that the clear identification of model-based probability forecasts as mature or immature, are critical elements for maintaining the credibility of science-based decision support, and can shape uncertainty quantification more widely.

Performance Analysis of Cluster Formation in Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Montiel, Edgar Romo; Rivero-Angeles, Mario E; Rubino, Gerardo; Molina-Lozano, Heron; Menchaca-Mendez, Rolando; Menchaca-Mendez, Ricardo

2017-12-13

Clustered-based wireless sensor networks have been extensively used in the literature in order to achieve considerable energy consumption reductions. However, two aspects of such systems have been largely overlooked. Namely, the transmission probability used during the cluster formation phase and the way in which cluster heads are selected. Both of these issues have an important impact on the performance of the system. For the former, it is common to consider that sensor nodes in a clustered-based Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) use a fixed transmission probability to send control data in order to build the clusters. However, due to the highly variable conditions experienced by these networks, a fixed transmission probability may lead to extra energy consumption. In view of this, three different transmission probability strategies are studied: optimal, fixed and adaptive. In this context, we also investigate cluster head selection schemes, specifically, we consider two intelligent schemes based on the fuzzy C-means and k-medoids algorithms and a random selection with no intelligence. We show that the use of intelligent schemes greatly improves the performance of the system, but their use entails higher complexity and selection delay. The main performance metrics considered in this work are energy consumption, successful transmission probability and cluster formation latency. As an additional feature of this work, we study the effect of errors in the wireless channel and the impact on the performance of the system under the different transmission probability schemes.

Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horn, J. E.; Harter, T.

2011-06-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems such as septic systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30 % of households are served by a septic system and a private drinking water well. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. Particularly in areas with small lots, thus a high septic system density, these typically shallow wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Typically, mass balance approaches are used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of the aquifer. In this study, we estimate the probability of a well pumping partially septic system leachate. A detailed groundwater and transport model is used to calculate the capture zone of a typical drinking water well. A spatial probability analysis is performed to assess the probability that a capture zone overlaps with a septic system drainfield depending on aquifer properties, lot and drainfield size. We show that a high septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We conclude that mass balances calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances which experience limited attenuation, and those being harmful even in low concentrations.

Performance Analysis of Cluster Formation in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Montiel, Edgar Romo; Rivero-Angeles, Mario E.; Rubino, Gerardo; Molina-Lozano, Heron; Menchaca-Mendez, Rolando; Menchaca-Mendez, Ricardo

2017-01-01

Clustered-based wireless sensor networks have been extensively used in the literature in order to achieve considerable energy consumption reductions. However, two aspects of such systems have been largely overlooked. Namely, the transmission probability used during the cluster formation phase and the way in which cluster heads are selected. Both of these issues have an important impact on the performance of the system. For the former, it is common to consider that sensor nodes in a clustered-based Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) use a fixed transmission probability to send control data in order to build the clusters. However, due to the highly variable conditions experienced by these networks, a fixed transmission probability may lead to extra energy consumption. In view of this, three different transmission probability strategies are studied: optimal, fixed and adaptive. In this context, we also investigate cluster head selection schemes, specifically, we consider two intelligent schemes based on the fuzzy C-means and k-medoids algorithms and a random selection with no intelligence. We show that the use of intelligent schemes greatly improves the performance of the system, but their use entails higher complexity and selection delay. The main performance metrics considered in this work are energy consumption, successful transmission probability and cluster formation latency. As an additional feature of this work, we study the effect of errors in the wireless channel and the impact on the performance of the system under the different transmission probability schemes. PMID:29236065

The operant-respondent distinction: Future directions

PubMed Central

Pear, Joseph J.; Eldridge, Gloria D.

1984-01-01

The operant-respondent distinction has provided a major organizing framework for the data generated through the experimental analysis of behavior. Problems have been encountered, however, in using it as an explanatory concept for such phenomena as avoidance and conditioned suppression. Data now exist that do not fit neatly into the framework. Moreover, the discovery of autoshaping has highlighted difficulties in isolating the two types of behavior and conditioning. Despite these problems, the operant-respondent framework remains the most successful paradigm currently available for organizing behavioral data. Research and theoretical efforts should therefore probably be directed to modifying the framework to account for disparate data. PMID:16812402

Surveillance and Datalink Communication Performance Analysis for Distributed Separation Assurance System Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, William W.; Linse, Dennis J.; Alaverdi, Omeed; Ifarraguerri, Carlos; Seifert, Scott C.; Salvano, Dan; Calender, Dale

2012-01-01

This study investigates the effects of two technical enablers: Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) and digital datalink communication, of the Federal Aviation Administration s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under two separation assurance (SA) system architectures: ground-based SA and airborne SA, on overall separation assurance performance. Datalink performance such as successful reception probability in both surveillance and communication messages, and surveillance accuracy are examined in various operational conditions. Required SA performance is evaluated as a function of subsystem performance, using availability, continuity, and integrity metrics to establish overall required separation assurance performance, under normal and off-nominal conditions.

A Predictive Model to Estimate Cost Savings of a Novel Diagnostic Blood Panel for Diagnosis of Diarrhea-predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome.

PubMed

Pimentel, Mark; Purdy, Chris; Magar, Raf; Rezaie, Ali

2016-07-01

A high incidence of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is associated with significant medical costs. Diarrhea-predominant IBS (IBS-D) is diagnosed on the basis of clinical presentation and diagnostic test results and procedures that exclude other conditions. This study was conducted to estimate the potential cost savings of a novel IBS diagnostic blood panel that tests for the presence of antibodies to cytolethal distending toxin B and anti-vinculin associated with IBS-D. A cost-minimization (CM) decision tree model was used to compare the costs of a novel IBS diagnostic blood panel pathway versus an exclusionary diagnostic pathway (ie, standard of care). The probability that patients proceed to treatment was modeled as a function of sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of the individual biomarker tests. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed for key variables, and a break-even analysis was performed for the pretest probability of IBS-D. Budget impact analysis of the CM model was extrapolated to a health plan with 1 million covered lives. The CM model (base-case) predicted $509 cost savings for the novel IBS diagnostic blood panel versus the exclusionary diagnostic pathway because of the avoidance of downstream testing (eg, colonoscopy, computed tomography scans). Sensitivity analysis indicated that an increase in both positive likelihood ratios modestly increased cost savings. Break-even analysis estimated that the pretest probability of disease would be 0.451 to attain cost neutrality. The budget impact analysis predicted a cost savings of $3,634,006 ($0.30 per member per month). The novel IBS diagnostic blood panel may yield significant cost savings by allowing patients to proceed to treatment earlier, thereby avoiding unnecessary testing. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Probability density function formalism for optical coherence tomography signal analysis: a controlled phantom study.

PubMed

Weatherbee, Andrew; Sugita, Mitsuro; Bizheva, Kostadinka; Popov, Ivan; Vitkin, Alex

2016-06-15

The distribution of backscattered intensities as described by the probability density function (PDF) of tissue-scattered light contains information that may be useful for tissue assessment and diagnosis, including characterization of its pathology. In this Letter, we examine the PDF description of the light scattering statistics in a well characterized tissue-like particulate medium using optical coherence tomography (OCT). It is shown that for low scatterer density, the governing statistics depart considerably from a Gaussian description and follow the K distribution for both OCT amplitude and intensity. The PDF formalism is shown to be independent of the scatterer flow conditions; this is expected from theory, and suggests robustness and motion independence of the OCT amplitude (and OCT intensity) PDF metrics in the context of potential biomedical applications.

Predicting missing links and identifying spurious links via likelihood analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Liming; Zhou, Tao; Lü, Linyuan; Hu, Chin-Kun

2016-03-01

Real network data is often incomplete and noisy, where link prediction algorithms and spurious link identification algorithms can be applied. Thus far, it lacks a general method to transform network organizing mechanisms to link prediction algorithms. Here we use an algorithmic framework where a network’s probability is calculated according to a predefined structural Hamiltonian that takes into account the network organizing principles, and a non-observed link is scored by the conditional probability of adding the link to the observed network. Extensive numerical simulations show that the proposed algorithm has remarkably higher accuracy than the state-of-the-art methods in uncovering missing links and identifying spurious links in many complex biological and social networks. Such method also finds applications in exploring the underlying network evolutionary mechanisms.

Time varying moments, regime switch, and crisis warning: The birth-death process with changing transition probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yinan; Chen, Ping

2014-06-01

The sub-prime crisis in the U.S. reveals the limitation of diversification strategy based on mean-variance analysis. A regime switch and a turning point can be observed using a high moment representation and time-dependent transition probability. Up-down price movements are induced by interactions among agents, which can be described by the birth-death (BD) process. Financial instability is visible by dramatically increasing 3rd to 5th moments one-quarter before and during the crisis. The sudden rising high moments provide effective warning signals of a regime-switch or a coming crisis. The critical condition of a market breakdown can be identified from nonlinear stochastic dynamics. The master equation approach of population dynamics provides a unified theory of a calm and turbulent market.

Predicting missing links and identifying spurious links via likelihood analysis

PubMed Central

Pan, Liming; Zhou, Tao; Lü, Linyuan; Hu, Chin-Kun

2016-01-01

Real network data is often incomplete and noisy, where link prediction algorithms and spurious link identification algorithms can be applied. Thus far, it lacks a general method to transform network organizing mechanisms to link prediction algorithms. Here we use an algorithmic framework where a network’s probability is calculated according to a predefined structural Hamiltonian that takes into account the network organizing principles, and a non-observed link is scored by the conditional probability of adding the link to the observed network. Extensive numerical simulations show that the proposed algorithm has remarkably higher accuracy than the state-of-the-art methods in uncovering missing links and identifying spurious links in many complex biological and social networks. Such method also finds applications in exploring the underlying network evolutionary mechanisms. PMID:26961965

Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.

2018-01-01

Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically synthesized bedrock ground motion for both the 1897 and 1934 earthquakes on non-linear analysis of local site conditions through DEEPSOIL Geotechnical analysis package present surface level peak ground acceleration of the order of 0.05-0.14 g for the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake while for the 1897 Shillong earthquake it is found to be in the range of 0.03-0.11 g. The factor of safety (FOS) against liquefaction, the probability of liquefaction ( P L), the liquefaction potential index (LPI), and the liquefaction risk index are estimated under the influence of these two earthquakes wherein the city is classified into severe (LPI > 15), high (5 < LPI ≤ 15), moderate (0 < LPI ≤ 5), and non-liquefiable (LPI = 0) susceptibility zones. While the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake induced moderate to severe liquefaction hazard condition in the city in mostly the deltaic plain and interdistributary marsh geomorphologic units with 13.5% sites exhibiting moderate hazard with a median LPI of 1.8, 8.5% sites depicting high with a median LPI of 9.1 and 4% sites with a median LPI of 18.9 exhibiting severe hazard condition, 1897 Shillong earthquake induced mostly non-liquefaction condition with very few sites depicting moderate and high liquefaction hazard. A conservative liquefaction hazard scenario of the city on the other hand estimated through deterministic approach for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years predicts a high hazard zone in the 3.5-19 m depth region with FOS < 1 and P L > 65% comprising of coarse-grained sediments of sand, silty sand, and clayey silty sand in mostly the deltaic plain geomorphologic unit with 39.1% sites depicting severe liquefaction hazard with a median LPI of 28.3. A non-linear regression analysis on both the historical and deterministic liquefaction scenarios in P L versus LPI domain with ± 1 standard deviation confidence bound generated a cubic polynomial relationship between the two liquefaction hazard proxies. This study considered a bench mark for other cities in the country and elsewhere forms an integral part of the mega-seismic microzonation endeavors undertaken in all the earthquake-prone counties in the world.

Pedigrees, Prizes, and Prisoners: The Misuse of Conditional Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlton, Matthew A.

2005-01-01

We present and discuss three examples of misapplication of the notion of conditional probability. In each example, we present the problem along with a published and/or well-known incorrect--but seemingly plausible--solution. We then give a careful treatment of the correct solution, in large part to show how careful application of basic probability…

Unsolved Problems in Evolutionary Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

1967-01-01

finding the probability of survival of a single new mutant). Most natural populations probably satisfy these conditions , as is illustrated by the...Ykl) of small quantities adding to zero. Then under suitable conditions on the function f(x), (3) xi + Yi,t+i = fi(x) + YE yjfi(tf) + O(y yt...It is clear that a sufficient condition for the point x to be locally stable is that all the roots of the matrix, (4) (a j) = ____ should have moduli

Looping probabilities of elastic chains: a path integral approach.

PubMed

Cotta-Ramusino, Ludovica; Maddocks, John H

2010-11-01

We consider an elastic chain at thermodynamic equilibrium with a heat bath, and derive an approximation to the probability density function, or pdf, governing the relative location and orientation of the two ends of the chain. Our motivation is to exploit continuum mechanics models for the computation of DNA looping probabilities, but here we focus on explaining the novel analytical aspects in the derivation of our approximation formula. Accordingly, and for simplicity, the current presentation is limited to the illustrative case of planar configurations. A path integral formalism is adopted, and, in the standard way, the first approximation to the looping pdf is obtained from a minimal energy configuration satisfying prescribed end conditions. Then we compute an additional factor in the pdf which encompasses the contributions of quadratic fluctuations about the minimum energy configuration along with a simultaneous evaluation of the partition function. The original aspects of our analysis are twofold. First, the quadratic Lagrangian describing the fluctuations has cross-terms that are linear in first derivatives. This, seemingly small, deviation from the structure of standard path integral examples complicates the necessary analysis significantly. Nevertheless, after a nonlinear change of variable of Riccati type, we show that the correction factor to the pdf can still be evaluated in terms of the solution to an initial value problem for the linear system of Jacobi ordinary differential equations associated with the second variation. The second novel aspect of our analysis is that we show that the Hamiltonian form of these linear Jacobi equations still provides the appropriate correction term in the inextensible, unshearable limit that is commonly adopted in polymer physics models of, e.g. DNA. Prior analyses of the inextensible case have had to introduce nonlinear and nonlocal integral constraints to express conditions on the relative displacement of the end points. Our approximation formula for the looping pdf is of quite general applicability as, in contrast to most prior approaches, no assumption is made of either uniformity of the elastic chain, nor of a straight intrinsic shape. If the chain is uniform the Jacobi system evaluated at certain minimum energy configurations has constant coefficients. In such cases our approximate pdf can be evaluated in an entirely explicit, closed form. We illustrate our analysis with a planar example of this type and compute an approximate probability of cyclization, i.e., of forming a closed loop, from a uniform elastic chain whose intrinsic shape is an open circular arc.

Quantity-activity relationship of denitrifying bacteria and environmental scaling in streams of a forested watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connor, B.L.; Hondzo, Miki; Dobraca, D.; LaPara, T.M.; Finlay, J.A.; Brezonik, P.L.

2006-01-01

The spatial variability of subreach denitrification rates in streams was evaluated with respect to controlling environmental conditions, molecular examination of denitrifying bacteria, and dimensional analysis. Denitrification activities ranged from 0 and 800 ng-N gsed-1 d-1 with large variations observed within short distances (<50 m) along stream reaches. A log-normal probability distribution described the range in denitrification activities and was used to define low (16% of the probability distributibn), medium (68%), and high (16%) denitrification potential groups. Denitrifying bacteria were quantified using a competitive polymerase chain reaction (cPCR) technique that amplified the nirK gene that encodes for nitrite reductase. Results showed a range of nirK quantities from 103 to 107 gene-copy-number gsed.-1 A nonparametric statistical test showed no significant difference in nirK quantifies among stream reaches, but revealed that samples with a high denitrification potential had significantly higher nirK quantities. Denitrification activity was positively correlated with nirK quantities with scatter in the data that can be attributed to varying environmental conditions along stream reaches. Dimensional analysis was used to evaluate denitrification activities according to environmental variables that describe fluid-flow properties, nitrate and organic material quantities, and dissolved oxygen flux. Buckingham's pi theorem was used to generate dimensionless groupings and field data were used to determine scaling parameters. The resulting expressions between dimensionless NO3- flux and dimensionless groupings of environmental variables showed consistent scaling, which indicates that the subreach variability in denitrification rates can be predicted by the controlling physical, chemical, and microbiological conditions. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, Bhogilal M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Lalli, Vincent A.; Pai, Shantaram; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

2002-01-01

An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.

NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Bhogilal M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Lalli, Vincent A.; Pai, Shantaram; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

2002-10-01

An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.

Methanogenesis in the sediment of the acidic Lake Caviahue in Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koschorreck, Matthias; Wendt-Potthoff, Katrin; Scharf, Burkhard; Richnow, Hans H.

2008-12-01

The biogeochemistry of methane in the sediments of Lake Caviahue was examined by geochemical analysis, microbial activity assays and isotopic analysis. The pH in the water column was 2.6 and increased up to a pH of 6 in the deeper sediment pore waters. The carbon isotope composition of CH 4 was between - 65 and - 70‰ which is indicative for the biological origin of the methane. The enrichment factor ɛ increased from - 46‰ in the upper sediment column to more than - 80 in the deeper sediment section suggesting a transition from acetoclastic methanogenesis to CO 2 reduction with depth. In the most acidic surface layer of the sediment (pH < 4) methanogenesis is inhibited as suggested by a linear CH 4 concentration profile, activity assays and MPN analysis. The CH 4 activity assays and the CH 4 profile indicate that methanogenesis in the sediment of Lake Caviahue was active below 40 cm depth. At that depth the pH was above 4 and sulfate reduction was sulfate limited. Methane was diffusing with a flux of 0.9 mmol m - 2 d - 1 to the sediment surface where it was probably oxidized. Methanogenesis contributed little to the sediments carbon budget and had no significant impact on lake water quality. The high biomass content of the sediment, which was probably caused by the last eruption of Copahue Volcano, supported high rates of sulfate reduction which probably raised the pH and created favorable conditions for methanogens in deeper sediment layers.

Electrophysiological evidence that top-down knowledge controls working memory processing for subsequent visual search.

PubMed

Kawashima, Tomoya; Matsumoto, Eriko

2016-03-23

Items in working memory guide visual attention toward a memory-matching object. Recent studies have shown that when searching for an object this attentional guidance can be modulated by knowing the probability that the target will match an item in working memory. Here, we recorded the P3 and contralateral delay activity to investigate how top-down knowledge controls the processing of working memory items. Participants performed memory task (recognition only) and memory-or-search task (recognition or visual search) in which they were asked to maintain two colored oriented bars in working memory. For visual search, we manipulated the probability that target had the same color as memorized items (0, 50, or 100%). Participants knew the probabilities before the task. Target detection in 100% match condition was faster than that in 50% match condition, indicating that participants used their knowledge of the probabilities. We found that the P3 amplitude in 100% condition was larger than in other conditions and that contralateral delay activity amplitude did not vary across conditions. These results suggest that more attention was allocated to the memory items when observers knew in advance that their color would likely match a target. This led to better search performance despite using qualitatively equal working memory representations.

ELIPGRID-PC: A PC program for calculating hot spot probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davidson, J.R.

1994-10-01

ELIPGRID-PC, a new personal computer program has been developed to provide easy access to Singer`s 1972 ELIPGRID algorithm for hot-spot detection probabilities. Three features of the program are the ability to determine: (1) the grid size required for specified conditions, (2) the smallest hot spot that can be sampled with a given probability, and (3) the approximate grid size resulting from specified conditions and sampling cost. ELIPGRID-PC also provides probability of hit versus cost data for graphing with spread-sheets or graphics software. The program has been successfully tested using Singer`s published ELIPGRID results. An apparent error in the original ELIPGRIDmore » code has been uncovered and an appropriate modification incorporated into the new program.« less

Oral health conditions and frailty in Mexican community-dwelling elderly: a cross sectional analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Oral health is an important component of general well-being for the elderly. Oral health-related problems include loss of teeth, nonfunctional removable dental prostheses, lesions of the oral mucosa, periodontitis, and root caries. They affect food selection, speaking ability, mastication, social relations, and quality of life. Frailty is a geriatric syndrome that confers vulnerability to negative health-related outcomes. The association between oral health and frailty has not been explored thoroughly. This study sought to identify associations between the presence of some oral health conditions, and frailty status among Mexican community-dwelling elderly. Methods Analysis of baseline data of the Mexican Study of Nutritional and Psychosocial Markers of Frailty, a cohort study carried out in a representative sample of people aged 70 and older residing in one district of Mexico City. Frailty was defined as the presence of three or more of the following five components: weight loss, exhaustion, slowness, weakness, and low physical activity. Oral health variables included self-perception of oral health compared with others of the same age; utilization of dental services during the last year, number of teeth, dental condition (edentate, partially edentate, or completely dentate), utilization and functionality of removable partial or complete dentures, severe periodontitis, self-reported chewing problems and xerostomia. Covariates included were gender, age, years of education, cognitive performance, smoking status, recent falls, hospitalization, number of drugs, and comorbidity. The association between frailty and dental variables was determined performing a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Final models were adjusted by socio-demographic and health factors Results Of the 838 participants examined, 699 had the information needed to establish the criteria for diagnosis of frailty. Those who had a higher probability of being frail included women (OR = 1.9), those who reported myocardial infarction (OR = 3.8), urinary incontinence (OR = 2.7), those who rated their oral health worse than others (OR = 3.2), and those who did not use dental services (OR = 2.1). For each additional year of age and each additional drug consumed, the probability of being frail increased 10% and 30%, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of dental services and self-perception of oral health were associated with a higher probability of being frail. PMID:22971075

Specialized data analysis of SSME and advanced propulsion system vibration measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffin, Thomas; Swanson, Wayne L.; Jong, Yen-Yi

1993-01-01

The basic objectives of this contract were to perform detailed analysis and evaluation of dynamic data obtained during Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) test and flight operations, including analytical/statistical assessment of component dynamic performance, and to continue the development and implementation of analytical/statistical models to effectively define nominal component dynamic characteristics, detect anomalous behavior, and assess machinery operational conditions. This study was to provide timely assessment of engine component operational status, identify probable causes of malfunction, and define feasible engineering solutions. The work was performed under three broad tasks: (1) Analysis, Evaluation, and Documentation of SSME Dynamic Test Results; (2) Data Base and Analytical Model Development and Application; and (3) Development and Application of Vibration Signature Analysis Techniques.

Minimal preparation computed tomography instead of barium enema/colonoscopy for suspected colon cancer in frail elderly patients: an outcome analysis study.

PubMed

Kealey, S M; Dodd, J D; MacEneaney, P M; Gibney, R G; Malone, D E

2004-01-01

To evaluate the efficacy of minimal preparation computed tomography (MPCT) in diagnosing clinically significant colonic tumours in frail, elderly patients. A prospective study was performed in a group of consecutively referred, frail, elderly patients with symptoms or signs of anaemia, pain, rectal bleeding or weight loss. The MPCT protocol consisted of 1.5 l Gastrografin 1% diluted with sterile water administered during the 48 h before the procedure with no bowel preparation or administration of intravenous contrast medium. Eight millimetre contiguous scans through the abdomen and pelvis were performed. The scans were double-reported by two gastrointestinal radiologists as showing definite (>90% certain), probable (50-90% certain), possible (<50% certain) neoplasm or normal. Where observers disagreed the more pessimistic of the two reports was accepted. The gold standard was clinical outcome at 1 year with positive end-points defined as (1) histological confirmation of CRC, (2) clinical presentation consistent with CRC without histological confirmation if the patient was too unwell for biopsy/surgery, and (3) death directly attributable to colorectal carcinoma (CRC) with/without post-mortem confirmation. Negative end-points were defined as patients with no clinical, radiological or post-mortem findings of CRC. Patients were followed for 1 year or until one of the above end-points were met. Seventy-two patients were included (mean age 81; range 62-93). One-year follow-up was completed in 94.4% (n=68). Mortality from all causes was 33% (n=24). Five histologically proven tumours were diagnosed with CT and there were two probable false-negatives. Results were analysed twice: assuming all CT lesions test positive and considering "possible" lesions test negative [brackets] (95% confidence intervals): sensitivity 0.88 (0.47-1.0) [0.75 (0.35-0.97)], specificity 0.47 (0.34-0.6) [0.87 (0.75-0.94)], positive predictive value 0.18 [0.43], negative predictive value 0.97 [0.96], positive likelihood ratio result 1.6 [5.63], negative likelihood ratio result 0.27 [0.29], kappa 0.31 [0.43]. Tumour prevalence was 12%. A graph of conditional probabilities was generated and analysed. A variety of unsuspected pathology was also found in this series of patients. MPCT should be double-reported, at least initially. "Possible" lesions should be ignored. Analysis of the graph of conditional probability applied to a group of frail, elderly patients with a high mortality from all causes (33% in our study) suggests: (1) if MPCT suggests definite or probable carcinoma, regardless of the pre-test probability, the post-test probability is high enough to warrant further action, (2) frail, elderly patients with a low pre-test probability for CRC and a negative MPCT should not have further investigation, (3) frail, elderly patients with a higher pre-test probability of CRC (such as those presenting with rectal bleeding) and a negative MPCT should have either double contrast barium enema (DCBE) or colonoscopy as further investigations or be followed clinically for 3-6 months. MPCT was acceptable to patients and clinicians and may reveal significant extra-colonic pathology.

Surface modification of EPDM rubber by plasma treatment.

PubMed

Grythe, Kai Frode; Hansen, Finn Knut

2006-07-04

The effect of argon, oxygen, and nitrogen plasma treatment of solvent cast EPDM rubber films has been investigated by means of atomic force microscopy (AFM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and surface energy measurements. Plasma treatment leads to changes in the surface energy from 25 to 70 mN/m. Treatment conditions influenced both the changes in surface energy and the stability, and it became more difficult to obtain good contact angle measurements after longer (> ca. 4 min) treatment times, probably because of an increasingly uneven surface structure. XPS analyses revealed that up to 20 at. % oxygen can be easily incorporated and that variations of approximately 5% can be controlled by the plasma conditions. Oxygen was mainly found in hydroxyl groups, but also as carbonyl and carboxyl. XPS analyses showed more stable surfaces than expected from contact angles, probably because XPS analysis is less surface sensitive than contact angle measurements. AFM measurements revealed different surface structures with the three gases. The surface roughness increased generally with treatment time, and dramatic changes could be observed at longer times. At short times, surface energy changes were much faster than the changes in surface structure, showing that plasma treatment conditions can be utilized to tailor both surface energies and surface structure of EPDM rubber.

Enhancement of surface-atmosphere fluxes by desert-fringe vegetation through reduction of surface albedo and of soil heat flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.

1987-01-01

Under the arid conditions prevailing at the end of the dry season in the western Negev/northern Sinai region, vegetation causes a sharp increase relative to bare soil in the daytime sensible heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere. Two mechanisms are involved: the increase in the surface absorptivity and a decrease in the surface heat flux. By increasing the sensible heat flux to the atmosphere through the albedo and the soil heat flux reductions, the desert-fringe vegetation increases the daytime convection and the growth of the planetary boundary layer. Removal of vegetation by overgrazing, by reducing the sensible heat flux, tends to reduce daytime convective precipitation, producing higher probabilities of drought conditions. This assessment of overgrazing is based on observations in the Sinai/Negev, where the soil albedo is high and where overgrazing produces an essential bare soil. Even if the assessment for the Sinai/Negev does not quantitatively apply throughout Africa, the current practice in many African countries of maintaining a large population of grazing animals, can contribute through the mesoscale mechanisms described to reduce daytime convective precipitation, perpetuating higher probabilities of drought. Time-of-day analysis of precipitation in Africa appears worthwhile, to better assess the role of the surface conditions in contributing to drought.

Laser beam propagation through turbulence and adaptive optics for beam delivery improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, Stephane

2015-10-01

We report results from numerical simulations of laser beam propagation through atmospheric turbulence. In particular, we study the statistical variations of the fractional beam energy hitting inside an optical aperture placed at several kilometer distance. The simulations are performed for different turbulence conditions and engagement ranges, with and without the use of turbulence mitigation. Turbulence mitigation is simulated with phase conjugation. The energy fluctuations are deduced from time sequence realizations. It is shown that turbulence mitigation leads to an increase of the mean energy inside the aperture and decrease of the fluctuations even in strong turbulence conditions and long distance engagement. As an example, the results are applied to a high energy laser countermeasure system, where we determine the probability that a single laser pulse, or one of the pulses in a sequence, will provide a lethal energy inside the target aperture. Again, turbulence mitigation contributes to increase the performance of the system at long-distance and for strong turbulence conditions in terms of kill probability. We also discuss a specific case where turbulence contributes to increase the pulse energy within the target aperture. The present analysis can be used to evaluate the performance of a variety of systems, such as directed countermeasures, laser communication, and laser weapons.

Spatial and temporal variability in rates of landsliding in seismically active mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, R.; Petley, D.; Rosser, N.; Densmore, A.; Gunasekera, R.; Brain, M.

2012-04-01

Where earthquake and precipitation driven disasters occur in steep, mountainous regions, landslides often account for a large proportion of the associated damage and losses. This research addresses spatial and temporal variability in rates of landslide occurrence in seismically active mountain ranges as a step towards developing better regional scale prediction of losses in such events. In the first part of this paper we attempt to explain reductively the variability in spatial rates of landslide occurrence, using data from five major earthquakes. This is achieved by fitting a regression-based conditional probability model to spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence, using as predictor variables proxies for spatial patterns of seismic ground motion and modelled hillslope stability. A combined model for all earthquakes performs well in hindcasting spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence as a function of readily-attainable spatial variables. We present validation of the model and demonstrate the extent to which it may be applied globally to derive landslide probabilities for future earthquakes. In part two we examine the temporal behaviour of rates of landslide occurrence. This is achieved through numerical modelling to simulate the behaviour of a hypothetical landscape. The model landscape is composed of hillslopes that continually weaken, fail and reset in response to temporally-discrete forcing events that represent earthquakes. Hillslopes with different geometries require different amounts of weakening to fail, such that they fail and reset at different temporal rates. Our results suggest that probabilities of landslide occurrence are not temporally constant, but rather vary with time, irrespective of changes in forcing event magnitudes or environmental conditions. Various parameters influencing the magnitude and temporal patterns of this variability are identified, highlighting areas where future research is needed. This model has important implications for landslide hazard and risk analysis in mountain areas as existing techniques usually assume that susceptibility to failure does not change with time.

Performance Analysis of HF Band FB-MC-SS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hussein Moradi; Stephen Andrew Laraway; Behrouz Farhang-Boroujeny

Abstract—In a recent paper [1] the filter bank multicarrier spread spectrum (FB-MC-SS) waveform was proposed for wideband spread spectrum HF communications. A significant benefit of this waveform is robustness against narrow and partial band interference. Simulation results in [1] demonstrated good performance in a wideband HF channel over a wide range of conditions. In this paper we present a theoretical analysis of the bit error probably for this system. Our analysis tailors the results from [2] where BER performance was analyzed for maximum ration combining systems that accounted for correlation between subcarriers and channel estimation error. Equations are give formore » BER that closely match the simulated performance in most situations.« less

The causal structure of utility conditionals.

PubMed

Bonnefon, Jean-François; Sloman, Steven A

2013-01-01

The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ''if p then q'' statements where the realization of p or q or both is valued by some agents. Various approaches to utility conditionals share the assumption that reasoners make inferences from utility conditionals based on the comparison between the utility of p and the expected utility of q. This article introduces a new parameter in this analysis, the underlying causal structure of the conditional. Four experiments showed that causal structure moderated utility-informed conditional reasoning. These inferences were strongly invited when the underlying structure of the conditional was causal, and significantly less so when the underlying structure of the conditional was diagnostic. This asymmetry was only observed for conditionals in which the utility of q was clear, and disappeared when the utility of q was unclear. Thus, an adequate account of utility-informed inferences conditional reasoning requires three components: utility, probability, and causal structure. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Circular analysis in complex stochastic systems

PubMed Central

Valleriani, Angelo

2015-01-01

Ruling out observations can lead to wrong models. This danger occurs unwillingly when one selects observations, experiments, simulations or time-series based on their outcome. In stochastic processes, conditioning on the future outcome biases all local transition probabilities and makes them consistent with the selected outcome. This circular self-consistency leads to models that are inconsistent with physical reality. It is also the reason why models built solely on macroscopic observations are prone to this fallacy. PMID:26656656

Content analysis in information flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grusho, Alexander A.; Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Moscow State University, Moscow; Grusho, Nick A.

The paper deals with architecture of content recognition system. To analyze the problem the stochastic model of content recognition in information flows was built. We proved that under certain conditions it is possible to solve correctly a part of the problem with probability 1, viewing a finite section of the information flow. That means that good architecture consists of two steps. The first step determines correctly certain subsets of contents, while the second step may demand much more time for true decision.

Uncovering Longitudinal Health Care Behaviors for Millions of Medicaid Enrollees: A Multistate Comparison of Pediatric Asthma Utilization.

PubMed

Hilton, Ross; Zheng, Yuchen; Fitzpatrick, Anne; Serban, Nicoleta

2018-01-01

This study introduces a framework for analyzing and visualizing health care utilization for millions of children, with a focus on pediatric asthma, one of the major chronic respiratory conditions. The data source is the 2005 to 2012 Medicaid Analytic Extract claims for 10 Southeast states. The study population consists of Medicaid-enrolled children with persistent asthma. We translate multiyear, individual-level medical claims into sequences of discrete utilization events, which are modeled using Markov renewal processes and model-based clustering. Network analysis is used to visualize utilization profiles. The method is general, allowing the study of other chronic conditions. The study population consists of 1.5 million children with persistent asthma. All states have profiles with high probability of asthma controller medication, as large as 60.6% to 90.2% of the state study population. The probability of consecutive asthma controller prescriptions ranges between 0.75 and 0.95. All states have utilization profiles with uncontrolled asthma with 4.5% to 22.9% of the state study population. The probability for controller medication is larger than for short-term medication after a physician visit but not after an emergency department (ED) visit or hospitalization. Transitions from ED or hospitalization generally have a lower probability into physician office (between 0.11 and 0.38) than into ED or hospitalization (between 0.20 and 0.59). In most profiles, children who take asthma controller medication do so regularly. Follow-up physician office visits after an ED encounter or hospitalization are observed at a low rate across all states. Finally, all states have a proportion of children who have uncontrolled asthma, meaning they do not take controller medication while they have severe outcomes.

Estimation of the failure risk of a maxillary premolar with different crack depths with endodontic treatment by computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Lin, Chun-Li; Chang, Yen-Hsiang; Hsieh, Shih-Kai; Chang, Wen-Jen

2013-03-01

This study evaluated the risk of failure for an endodontically treated premolar with different crack depths, which was shearing toward the pulp chamber and was restored by using 3 different computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing ceramic restoration configurations. Three 3-dimensional finite element models designed with computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing ceramic onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations were constructed to perform simulations. The Weibull function was incorporated with finite element analysis to calculate the long-term failure probability relative to different load conditions. The results indicated that the stress values on the enamel, dentin, and luting cement for endocrown restorations exhibited the lowest values relative to the other 2 restoration methods. Weibull analysis revealed that the overall failure probabilities in a shallow cracked premolar were 27%, 2%, and 1% for the onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations, respectively, in the normal occlusal condition. The corresponding values were 70%, 10%, and 2% for the depth cracked premolar. This numeric investigation suggests that the endocrown provides sufficient fracture resistance only in a shallow cracked premolar with endodontic treatment. The conventional crown treatment can immobilize the premolar for different cracked depths with lower failure risk. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Directional analysis of CO2 persistence at a rural site.

PubMed

Pérez, Isidro A; Sánchez, M Luisa; García, M Ángeles; Paredes, Vanessa

2011-09-01

Conditional probability was used to establish persistence of CO(2) concentrations at a rural site. Measurements extended over three years and were performed with a CO(2) continuous monitor and a sodar. Concentrations in the usual range at this site were proposed as the truncation level to calculate conditional probability, allowing us to determine the extent of CO(2) sequences. Extension of episodes may be inferred from these values. Persistence of wind directions revealed two groups of sectors, one with a persistence of about 16 h and another of about 9 h. Cumulative distribution of CO(2) was calculated in each wind sector and three groups, associated with different concentration origins, were established. One group was linked to transport and local sources, another to the rural environment, and a third to transport of clean air masses. Daily evolution of concentrations revealed major differences during the night and monthly analysis allowed us to associate group 1 with the vegetation cycle and group 3 with wind speed from December to April. Persistence of concentrations was obtained, and group 3 values were lower for concentrations above the truncation level, whereas persistence of groups 1 and 2 was similar. However, group 3 persistence was, in general, between group 1 and 2 persistence for concentrations below the truncation level. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Application of Wind Fetch and Wave Models for Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohweder, Jason J.; Rogala, James T.; Johnson, Barry L.; Anderson, Dennis; Clark, Steve; Chamberlin, Ferris

2012-01-01

Models based upon coastal engineering equations have been developed to quantify wind fetch length and several physical wave characteristics including significant height, length, peak period, maximum orbital velocity, and shear stress. These models were used to quantify differences in proposed island construction designs for three Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects (HREPs) in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers St. Paul District (Capoli Slough and Harpers Slough) and St. Louis District (Swan Lake). Weighted wind fetch was calculated using land cover data supplied by the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) for each island design scenario for all three HREPs. Figures and graphs were created to depict the results of this analysis. The difference in weighted wind fetch from existing conditions to each potential future island design was calculated for Capoli and Harpers Slough HREPs. A simplistic method for calculating sediment suspension probability was also applied to the HREPs in the St. Paul District. This analysis involved determining the percentage of days that maximum orbital wave velocity calculated over the growing seasons of 2002–2007 exceeded a threshold value taken from the literature where fine unconsolidated sediments may become suspended. This analysis also evaluated the difference in sediment suspension probability from existing conditions to the potential island designs. Bathymetric data used in the analysis were collected from the LTRMP and wind direction and magnitude data were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center. These models are scheduled to be updated to operate using the most current Environmental Systems Research Institute ArcGIS Geographic Information System platform, and have several improvements implemented to wave calculations, data processing, and functions of the toolbox.

Quantum-correlation breaking channels, quantum conditional probability and Perron-Frobenius theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chruściński, Dariusz

2013-03-01

Using the quantum analog of conditional probability and classical Bayes theorem we discuss some aspects of particular entanglement breaking channels: quantum-classical and classical-classical channels. Applying the quantum analog of Perron-Frobenius theorem we generalize the recent result of Korbicz et al. (2012) [8] on full and spectrum broadcasting from quantum-classical channels to arbitrary quantum channels.

When Is Statistical Evidence Superior to Anecdotal Evidence in Supporting Probability Claims? The Role of Argument Type

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoeken, Hans; Hustinx, Lettica

2009-01-01

Under certain conditions, statistical evidence is more persuasive than anecdotal evidence in supporting a claim about the probability that a certain event will occur. In three experiments, it is shown that the type of argument is an important condition in this respect. If the evidence is part of an argument by generalization, statistical evidence…

Transfer of Solutions to Conditional Probability Problems: Effects of Example Problem Format, Solution Format, and Problem Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Alan F.; Van Haneghan, James P.

2016-01-01

This study reports the results of a study examining how easily students are able to transfer frequency solutions to conditional probability problems to novel situations. University students studied either a problem solved using the traditional Bayes formula format or using a natural frequency (tree diagram) format. In addition, the example problem…

Multiwaveband simulation-based signature analysis of camouflaged human dismounts in cluttered environments with TAIThermIR and MuSES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Packard, Corey D.; Klein, Mark D.; Viola, Timothy S.; Hepokoski, Mark A.

2016-10-01

The ability to predict electro-optical (EO) signatures of diverse targets against cluttered backgrounds is paramount for signature evaluation and/or management. Knowledge of target and background signatures is essential for a variety of defense-related applications. While there is no substitute for measured target and background signatures to determine contrast and detection probability, the capability to simulate any mission scenario with desired environmental conditions is a tremendous asset for defense agencies. In this paper, a systematic process for the thermal and visible-through-infrared simulation of camouflaged human dismounts in cluttered outdoor environments is presented. This process, utilizing the thermal and EO/IR radiance simulation tool TAIThermIR (and MuSES), provides a repeatable and accurate approach for analyzing contrast, signature and detectability of humans in multiple wavebands. The engineering workflow required to combine natural weather boundary conditions and the human thermoregulatory module developed by ThermoAnalytics is summarized. The procedure includes human geometry creation, human segmental physiology description and transient physical temperature prediction using environmental boundary conditions and active thermoregulation. Radiance renderings, which use Sandford-Robertson BRDF optical surface property descriptions and are coupled with MODTRAN for the calculation of atmospheric effects, are demonstrated. Sensor effects such as optical blurring and photon noise can be optionally included, increasing the accuracy of detection probability outputs that accompany each rendering. This virtual evaluation procedure has been extensively validated and provides a flexible evaluation process that minimizes the difficulties inherent in human-subject field testing. Defense applications such as detection probability assessment, camouflage pattern evaluation, conspicuity tests and automatic target recognition are discussed.

Coding of level of ambiguity within neural systems mediating choice.

PubMed

Lopez-Paniagua, Dan; Seger, Carol A

2013-01-01

Data from previous neuroimaging studies exploring neural activity associated with uncertainty suggest varying levels of activation associated with changing degrees of uncertainty in neural regions that mediate choice behavior. The present study used a novel task that parametrically controlled the amount of information hidden from the subject; levels of uncertainty ranged from full ambiguity (no information about probability of winning) through multiple levels of partial ambiguity, to a condition of risk only (zero ambiguity with full knowledge of the probability of winning). A parametric analysis compared a linear model in which weighting increased as a function of level of ambiguity, and an inverted-U quadratic models in which partial ambiguity conditions were weighted most heavily. Overall we found that risk and all levels of ambiguity recruited a common "fronto-parietal-striatal" network including regions within the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, intraparietal sulcus, and dorsal striatum. Activation was greatest across these regions and additional anterior and superior prefrontal regions for the quadratic function which most heavily weighs trials with partial ambiguity. These results suggest that the neural regions involved in decision processes do not merely track the absolute degree ambiguity or type of uncertainty (risk vs. ambiguity). Instead, recruitment of prefrontal regions may result from greater degree of difficulty in conditions of partial ambiguity: when information regarding reward probabilities important for decision making is hidden or not easily obtained the subject must engage in a search for tractable information. Additionally, this study identified regions of activity related to the valuation of potential gains associated with stimuli or options (including the orbitofrontal and medial prefrontal cortices and dorsal striatum) and related to winning (including orbitofrontal cortex and ventral striatum).

Coding of level of ambiguity within neural systems mediating choice

PubMed Central

Lopez-Paniagua, Dan; Seger, Carol A.

2013-01-01

Data from previous neuroimaging studies exploring neural activity associated with uncertainty suggest varying levels of activation associated with changing degrees of uncertainty in neural regions that mediate choice behavior. The present study used a novel task that parametrically controlled the amount of information hidden from the subject; levels of uncertainty ranged from full ambiguity (no information about probability of winning) through multiple levels of partial ambiguity, to a condition of risk only (zero ambiguity with full knowledge of the probability of winning). A parametric analysis compared a linear model in which weighting increased as a function of level of ambiguity, and an inverted-U quadratic models in which partial ambiguity conditions were weighted most heavily. Overall we found that risk and all levels of ambiguity recruited a common “fronto—parietal—striatal” network including regions within the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, intraparietal sulcus, and dorsal striatum. Activation was greatest across these regions and additional anterior and superior prefrontal regions for the quadratic function which most heavily weighs trials with partial ambiguity. These results suggest that the neural regions involved in decision processes do not merely track the absolute degree ambiguity or type of uncertainty (risk vs. ambiguity). Instead, recruitment of prefrontal regions may result from greater degree of difficulty in conditions of partial ambiguity: when information regarding reward probabilities important for decision making is hidden or not easily obtained the subject must engage in a search for tractable information. Additionally, this study identified regions of activity related to the valuation of potential gains associated with stimuli or options (including the orbitofrontal and medial prefrontal cortices and dorsal striatum) and related to winning (including orbitofrontal cortex and ventral striatum). PMID:24367286

Delay Analysis and Optimization of Bandwidth Request under Unicast Polling in IEEE 802.16e over Gilbert-Elliot Error Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Eunju; Kim, Kyung Jae; Roijers, Frank; Choi, Bong Dae

In the centralized polling mode in IEEE 802.16e, a base station (BS) polls mobile stations (MSs) for bandwidth reservation in one of three polling modes; unicast, multicast, or broadcast pollings. In unicast polling, the BS polls each individual MS to allow to transmit a bandwidth request packet. This paper presents an analytical model for the unicast polling of bandwidth request in IEEE 802.16e networks over Gilbert-Elliot error channel. We derive the probability distribution for the delay of bandwidth requests due to wireless transmission errors and find the loss probability of request packets due to finite retransmission attempts. By using the delay distribution and the loss probability, we optimize the number of polling slots within a frame and the maximum retransmission number while satisfying QoS on the total loss probability which combines two losses: packet loss due to the excess of maximum retransmission and delay outage loss due to the maximum tolerable delay bound. In addition, we obtain the utilization of polling slots, which is defined as the ratio of the number of polling slots used for the MS's successful transmission to the total number of polling slots used by the MS over a long run time. Analysis results are shown to well match with simulation results. Numerical results give examples of the optimal number of polling slots within a frame and the optimal maximum retransmission number depending on delay bounds, the number of MSs, and the channel conditions.

Integrated metabolic flux and omics analysis of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 under mixotrophic and photoheterotrophic conditions.

PubMed

Nakajima, Tsubasa; Kajihata, Shuichi; Yoshikawa, Katsunori; Matsuda, Fumio; Furusawa, Chikara; Hirasawa, Takashi; Shimizu, Hiroshi

2014-09-01

Cyanobacteria have flexible metabolic capability that enables them to adapt to various environments. To investigate their underlying metabolic regulation mechanisms, we performed an integrated analysis of metabolic flux using transcriptomic and metabolomic data of a cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803, under mixotrophic and photoheterotrophic conditions. The integrated analysis indicated drastic metabolic flux changes, with much smaller changes in gene expression levels and metabolite concentrations between the conditions, suggesting that the flux change was not caused mainly by the expression levels of the corresponding genes. Under photoheterotrophic conditions, created by the addition of the photosynthesis inhibitor atrazine in mixotrophic conditions, the result of metabolic flux analysis indicated the significant repression of carbon fixation and the activation of the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway (PPP). Moreover, we observed gluconeogenic activity of upstream of glycolysis, which enhanced the flux of the oxidative PPP to compensate for NADPH depletion due to the inhibition of the light reaction of photosynthesis. 'Omics' data suggested that these changes were probably caused by the repression of the gap1 gene, which functions as a control valve in the metabolic network. Since metabolic flux is the outcome of a complicated interplay of cellular components, integrating metabolic flux with other 'omics' layers can identify metabolic changes and narrow down these regulatory mechanisms more effectively. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Condition-dependent reproductive effort in frogs infected by a widespread pathogen

PubMed Central

Roznik, Elizabeth A.; Sapsford, Sarah J.; Pike, David A.; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A.

2015-01-01

To minimize the negative effects of an infection on fitness, hosts can respond adaptively by altering their reproductive effort or by adjusting their timing of reproduction. We studied effects of the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis on the probability of calling in a stream-breeding rainforest frog (Litoria rheocola). In uninfected frogs, calling probability was relatively constant across seasons and body conditions, but in infected frogs, calling probability differed among seasons (lowest in winter, highest in summer) and was strongly and positively related to body condition. Infected frogs in poor condition were up to 40% less likely to call than uninfected frogs, whereas infected frogs in good condition were up to 30% more likely to call than uninfected frogs. Our results suggest that frogs employed a pre-existing, plastic, life-history strategy in response to infection, which may have complex evolutionary implications. If infected males in good condition reproduce at rates equal to or greater than those of uninfected males, selection on factors affecting disease susceptibility may be minimal. However, because reproductive effort in infected males is positively related to body condition, there may be selection on mechanisms that limit the negative effects of infections on hosts. PMID:26063847

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Erik A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Jacobsen, Katrin E.

2017-12-27

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02.Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions.

Class dependency of fuzzy relational database using relational calculus and conditional probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deni Akbar, Mohammad; Mizoguchi, Yoshihiro; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose a design of fuzzy relational database to deal with a conditional probability relation using fuzzy relational calculus. In the previous, there are several researches about equivalence class in fuzzy database using similarity or approximate relation. It is an interesting topic to investigate the fuzzy dependency using equivalence classes. Our goal is to introduce a formulation of a fuzzy relational database model using the relational calculus on the category of fuzzy relations. We also introduce general formulas of the relational calculus for the notion of database operations such as ’projection’, ’selection’, ’injection’ and ’natural join’. Using the fuzzy relational calculus and conditional probabilities, we introduce notions of equivalence class, redundant, and dependency in the theory fuzzy relational database.

A Most Probable Point-Based Method for Reliability Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Gene J.-W; Newman, Perry A. (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

A major step in a most probable point (MPP)-based method for reliability analysis is to determine the MPP. This is usually accomplished by using an optimization search algorithm. The minimum distance associated with the MPP provides a measurement of safety probability, which can be obtained by approximate probability integration methods such as FORM or SORM. The reliability sensitivity equations are derived first in this paper, based on the derivatives of the optimal solution. Examples are provided later to demonstrate the use of these derivatives for better reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO).

Probability and possibility-based representations of uncertainty in fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Flage, Roger; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico; Aven, Terje

2013-01-01

Expert knowledge is an important source of input to risk analysis. In practice, experts might be reluctant to characterize their knowledge and the related (epistemic) uncertainty using precise probabilities. The theory of possibility allows for imprecision in probability assignments. The associated possibilistic representation of epistemic uncertainty can be combined with, and transformed into, a probabilistic representation; in this article, we show this with reference to a simple fault tree analysis. We apply an integrated (hybrid) probabilistic-possibilistic computational framework for the joint propagation of the epistemic uncertainty on the values of the (limiting relative frequency) probabilities of the basic events of the fault tree, and we use possibility-probability (probability-possibility) transformations for propagating the epistemic uncertainty within purely probabilistic and possibilistic settings. The results of the different approaches (hybrid, probabilistic, and possibilistic) are compared with respect to the representation of uncertainty about the top event (limiting relative frequency) probability. Both the rationale underpinning the approaches and the computational efforts they require are critically examined. We conclude that the approaches relevant in a given setting depend on the purpose of the risk analysis, and that further research is required to make the possibilistic approaches operational in a risk analysis context. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Minimization of Vibroacoustic Effects as a Criterion for Operation of Gear Transmissions in Accordance with Sustainable Development Principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieczorek, Andrzej N.; Kruk, Radosław

2016-03-01

In correctly functioning maintenance systems it is most important to prevent possible failures. A reduction of the vibroacoustic effects accompanying the operation of machines and equipment, including transmissions, is among the factors that lower the probability of a failure. The paper presents the results of the research on the impact of operational factors on vibroacoustic conditions of transmissions. The factors covered by the analysis included a change in the mating conditions of gear wheels associated with the wear of tooth surfaces, operation of transmissions in subharmonic conditions of the main resonance and the temperature of the lubricating oil. The study demonstrated that it was possible to reduce the vibroacoustic effects generated by gear transmissions by changing the conditions of their operation. Based on the results obtained, it has been found that the operation of gear transmissions in accordance with the sustainable development principles requires technical services to take active measures consisting in the search for optimal operating conditions in terms of the vibroacoustic conditions.

Methods, apparatus and system for notification of predictable memory failure

DOEpatents

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2017-01-03

A method for providing notification of a predictable memory failure includes the steps of: obtaining information regarding at least one condition associated with a memory; calculating a memory failure probability as a function of the obtained information; calculating a failure probability threshold; and generating a signal when the memory failure probability exceeds the failure probability threshold, the signal being indicative of a predicted future memory failure.

Individual quality and age but not environmental or social conditions modulate costs of reproduction in a capital breeder.

PubMed

Debeffe, Lucie; Poissant, Jocelyn; McLoughlin, Philip D

2017-08-01

Costs associated with reproduction are widely known to play a role in the evolution of reproductive tactics with consequences to population and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Evaluating these costs as they pertain to species in the wild remains an important goal of evolutionary ecology. Individual heterogeneity, including differences in individual quality (i.e., among-individual differences in traits associated with survival and reproduction) or state, and variation in environmental and social conditions can modulate the costs of reproduction; however, few studies have considered effects of these factors simultaneously. Taking advantage of a detailed, long-term dataset for a population of feral horses (Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada), we address the question of how intrinsic (quality, age), environmental (winter severity, location), and social conditions (group size, composition, sex ratio, density) influence the costs of reproduction on subsequent reproduction. Individual quality was measured using a multivariate analysis on a combination of four static and dynamic traits expected to depict heterogeneity in individual performance. Female quality and age interacted with reproductive status of the previous year to determine current reproductive effort, while no effect of social or environmental covariates was found. High-quality females showed higher probabilities of giving birth and weaning their foal regardless of their reproductive status the previous year, while those of lower quality showed lower probabilities of producing foals in successive years. Middle-aged (prime) females had the highest probability of giving birth when they had not reproduced the year before, but no such relationship with age was found among females that had reproduced the previous year, indicating that prime-aged females bear higher costs of reproduction. We show that individual quality and age were key factors modulating the costs of reproduction in a capital breeder but that environmental or social conditions were not, highlighting the importance of considering multiple factors when studying costs of reproduction.

A NEW METHOD OF PEAK DETECTION FOR ANALYSIS OF COMPREHENSIVE TWO-DIMENSIONAL GAS CHROMATOGRAPHY MASS SPECTROMETRY DATA.

PubMed

Kim, Seongho; Ouyang, Ming; Jeong, Jaesik; Shen, Changyu; Zhang, Xiang

2014-06-01

We develop a novel peak detection algorithm for the analysis of comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC×GC-TOF MS) data using normal-exponential-Bernoulli (NEB) and mixture probability models. The algorithm first performs baseline correction and denoising simultaneously using the NEB model, which also defines peak regions. Peaks are then picked using a mixture of probability distribution to deal with the co-eluting peaks. Peak merging is further carried out based on the mass spectral similarities among the peaks within the same peak group. The algorithm is evaluated using experimental data to study the effect of different cut-offs of the conditional Bayes factors and the effect of different mixture models including Poisson, truncated Gaussian, Gaussian, Gamma, and exponentially modified Gaussian (EMG) distributions, and the optimal version is introduced using a trial-and-error approach. We then compare the new algorithm with two existing algorithms in terms of compound identification. Data analysis shows that the developed algorithm can detect the peaks with lower false discovery rates than the existing algorithms, and a less complicated peak picking model is a promising alternative to the more complicated and widely used EMG mixture models.

Probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times informed by Jaynes's principle of maximum entropy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Furbish, David; Schmeeckle, Mark; Schumer, Rina; Fathel, Siobhan

2016-01-01

We describe the most likely forms of the probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times, in a manner that formally appeals to inferential statistics while honoring mechanical and kinematic constraints imposed by equilibrium transport conditions. The analysis is based on E. Jaynes's elaboration of the implications of the similarity between the Gibbs entropy in statistical mechanics and the Shannon entropy in information theory. By maximizing the information entropy of a distribution subject to known constraints on its moments, our choice of the form of the distribution is unbiased. The analysis suggests that particle velocities and travel times are exponentially distributed and that particle accelerations follow a Laplace distribution with zero mean. Particle hop distances, viewed alone, ought to be distributed exponentially. However, the covariance between hop distances and travel times precludes this result. Instead, the covariance structure suggests that hop distances follow a Weibull distribution. These distributions are consistent with high-resolution measurements obtained from high-speed imaging of bed load particle motions. The analysis brings us closer to choosing distributions based on our mechanical insight.

Statistical approaches to the analysis of point count data: A little extra information can go a long way

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farnsworth, G.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Fancy, S.G.; Pollock, K.H.; Shriner, S.A.; Simons, T.R.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

Point counts are a standard sampling procedure for many bird species, but lingering concerns still exist about the quality of information produced from the method. It is well known that variation in observer ability and environmental conditions can influence the detection probability of birds in point counts, but many biologists have been reluctant to abandon point counts in favor of more intensive approaches to counting. However, over the past few years a variety of statistical and methodological developments have begun to provide practical ways of overcoming some of the problems with point counts. We describe some of these approaches, and show how they can be integrated into standard point count protocols to greatly enhance the quality of the information. Several tools now exist for estimation of detection probability of birds during counts, including distance sampling, double observer methods, time-depletion (removal) methods, and hybrid methods that combine these approaches. Many counts are conducted in habitats that make auditory detection of birds much more likely than visual detection. As a framework for understanding detection probability during such counts, we propose separating two components of the probability a bird is detected during a count into (1) the probability a bird vocalizes during the count and (2) the probability this vocalization is detected by an observer. In addition, we propose that some measure of the area sampled during a count is necessary for valid inferences about bird populations. This can be done by employing fixed-radius counts or more sophisticated distance-sampling models. We recommend any studies employing point counts be designed to estimate detection probability and to include a measure of the area sampled.

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, E.H.; Dawson, T.E.; Felzer, K.R.; Frankel, A.D.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Parsons, T.; Petersen, M.D.; Stein, R.S.; Weldon, R.J.; Wills, C.J.

2009-01-01

The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6.5 ??? M ???7.0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ???6.7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ???7.5 and to 4.5% for M ???8.0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ???8.0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ???6.7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

14 CFR 25.801 - Ditching.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., under reasonably probable water conditions, the flotation time and trim of the airplane will allow the... provision is shown by buoyancy and trim computations, appropriate allowances must be made for probable...

Short-term capture of the Earth-Moon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Yi; de Ruiter, Anton

2018-06-01

In this paper, the short-term capture (STC) of an asteroid in the Earth-Moon system is proposed and investigated. First, the space condition of STC is analysed and five subsets of the feasible region are defined and discussed. Then, the time condition of STC is studied by parameter scanning in the Sun-Earth-Moon-asteroid restricted four-body problem. Numerical results indicate that there is a clear association between the distributions of the time probability of STC and the five subsets. Next, the influence of the Jacobi constant on STC is examined using the space and time probabilities of STC. Combining the space and time probabilities of STC, we propose a STC index to evaluate the probability of STC comprehensively. Finally, three potential STC asteroids are found and analysed.

Hydrologic risk analysis in the Yangtze River basin through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y. R.; Huang, W. W.; Huang, G. H.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, K.; Li, Z.

2016-02-01

In this study, a bivariate hydrologic risk framework is proposed through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas, leading to a coupled GMM-copula method. In the coupled GMM-Copula method, the marginal distributions of flood peak, volume and duration are quantified through Gaussian mixture models and the joint probability distributions of flood peak-volume, peak-duration and volume-duration are established through copulas. The bivariate hydrologic risk is then derived based on the joint return period of flood variable pairs. The proposed method is applied to the risk analysis for the Yichang station on the main stream of the Yangtze River, China. The results indicate that (i) the bivariate risk for flood peak-volume would keep constant for the flood volume less than 1.0 × 105 m3/s day, but present a significant decreasing trend for the flood volume larger than 1.7 × 105 m3/s day; and (ii) the bivariate risk for flood peak-duration would not change significantly for the flood duration less than 8 days, and then decrease significantly as duration value become larger. The probability density functions (pdfs) of the flood volume and duration conditional on flood peak can also be generated through the fitted copulas. The results indicate that the conditional pdfs of flood volume and duration follow bimodal distributions, with the occurrence frequency of the first vertex decreasing and the latter one increasing as the increase of flood peak. The obtained conclusions from the bivariate hydrologic analysis can provide decision support for flood control and mitigation.

Conditional survival analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with radiofrequency ablation.

PubMed

Facciorusso, Antonio; Del Prete, Valentina; Antonino, Matteo; Neve, Viviana; Amoruso, Annabianca; Crucinio, Nicola; Di Leo, Alfredo; Barone, Michele

2015-10-01

Survival estimates are commonly reported as survival from the first observation, but future survival probability changes based on the survival time already accumulated after therapy, otherwise known as conditional survival (CS). The aim of the study was to describe CS according to different prognostic variables in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Data on 125 very early/early HCC patients treated with RFA between 1999 and 2007 were analyzed. Actuarial survival estimates were computed by means of Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test. The 5-year CS was calculated with stratification by several predictors for patients who had already survived up to 5 years from diagnosis. Median overall survival (OS) was 72 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 58-86). Age, Child-Pugh (CP), α-fetoprotein (AFP), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score and type of recurrence (early vs late) were significant predictors of OS. The 5-year CS rates of the entire study cohort assessed at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years from the treatment were 49%, 48%, 30% and 34%, respectively. Subgroup analysis confirmed age and CP as significant predictors of CS at all time points, while the CS of subgroups stratified by AFP and CLIP did not differ significantly from the 3rd year after RFA onward, as more advanced patients had probably escaped early recurrence. CS analysis showed that the impact of different variables influencing OS is not linear over time after RFA. Information derived from the study can improve the current management of HCC patients. © 2014 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Statistics 101 for Radiologists.

PubMed

Anvari, Arash; Halpern, Elkan F; Samir, Anthony E

2015-10-01

Diagnostic tests have wide clinical applications, including screening, diagnosis, measuring treatment effect, and determining prognosis. Interpreting diagnostic test results requires an understanding of key statistical concepts used to evaluate test efficacy. This review explains descriptive statistics and discusses probability, including mutually exclusive and independent events and conditional probability. In the inferential statistics section, a statistical perspective on study design is provided, together with an explanation of how to select appropriate statistical tests. Key concepts in recruiting study samples are discussed, including representativeness and random sampling. Variable types are defined, including predictor, outcome, and covariate variables, and the relationship of these variables to one another. In the hypothesis testing section, we explain how to determine if observed differences between groups are likely to be due to chance. We explain type I and II errors, statistical significance, and study power, followed by an explanation of effect sizes and how confidence intervals can be used to generalize observed effect sizes to the larger population. Statistical tests are explained in four categories: t tests and analysis of variance, proportion analysis tests, nonparametric tests, and regression techniques. We discuss sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and likelihood ratios. Measures of reliability and agreement, including κ statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman graphs and analysis, are introduced. © RSNA, 2015.

Estimating synaptic parameters from mean, variance, and covariance in trains of synaptic responses.

PubMed

Scheuss, V; Neher, E

2001-10-01

Fluctuation analysis of synaptic transmission using the variance-mean approach has been restricted in the past to steady-state responses. Here we extend this method to short repetitive trains of synaptic responses, during which the response amplitudes are not stationary. We consider intervals between trains, long enough so that the system is in the same average state at the beginning of each train. This allows analysis of ensemble means and variances for each response in a train separately. Thus, modifications in synaptic efficacy during short-term plasticity can be attributed to changes in synaptic parameters. In addition, we provide practical guidelines for the analysis of the covariance between successive responses in trains. Explicit algorithms to estimate synaptic parameters are derived and tested by Monte Carlo simulations on the basis of a binomial model of synaptic transmission, allowing for quantal variability, heterogeneity in the release probability, and postsynaptic receptor saturation and desensitization. We find that the combined analysis of variance and covariance is advantageous in yielding an estimate for the number of release sites, which is independent of heterogeneity in the release probability under certain conditions. Furthermore, it allows one to calculate the apparent quantal size for each response in a sequence of stimuli.

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Brian H.; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan

2011-01-01

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

The relationship between violence in Northern Mexico and potentially avoidable hospitalizations in the USA-Mexico border region.

PubMed

Geissler, Kimberley; Stearns, Sally C; Becker, Charles; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Holmes, George M

2016-03-01

Substantial proportions of US residents in the USA-Mexico border region cross into Mexico for health care; increases in violence in northern Mexico may have affected this access. We quantified associations between violence in Mexico and decreases in access to care for border county residents. We also examined associations between border county residence and access. We used hospital inpatient data for Arizona, California and Texas (2005-10) to estimate associations between homicide rates and the probability of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions. Hospitalizations for ACS conditions were compared with homicide rates in Mexican municipalities matched by patient residence. A 1 SD increase in the homicide rate of the nearest Mexican municipality was associated with a 2.2 percentage point increase in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition for border county patients. Residence in a border county was associated with a 1.3 percentage point decrease in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition. Increased homicide rates in Mexico were associated with increased hospitalizations for ACS conditions in the USA, although residence in a border county was associated with decreased probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition. Expanding access in the border region may mitigate these effects by providing alternative sources of care. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.

PubMed

Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

2015-08-01

We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes; Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling

ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program providesmore » a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).« less

A Comparative Study of Automated Infrasound Detectors - PMCC and AFD with Analyst Review.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Junghyun; Hayward, Chris; Zeiler, Cleat

Automated detections calculated by the progressive multi-channel correlation (PMCC) method (Cansi, 1995) and the adaptive F detector (AFD) (Arrowsmith et al., 2009) are compared to the signals identified by five independent analysts. Each detector was applied to a four-hour time sequence recorded by the Korean infrasound array CHNAR. This array was used because it is composed of both small (<100 m) and large (~1000 m) aperture element spacing. The four hour time sequence contained a number of easily identified signals under noise conditions that have average RMS amplitudes varied from 1.2 to 4.5 mPa (1 to 5 Hz), estimated withmore » running five-minute window. The effectiveness of the detectors was estimated for the small aperture, large aperture, small aperture combined with the large aperture, and full array. The full and combined arrays performed the best for AFD under all noise conditions while the large aperture array had the poorest performance for both detectors. PMCC produced similar results as AFD under the lower noise conditions, but did not produce as dramatic an increase in detections using the full and combined arrays. Both automated detectors and the analysts produced a decrease in detections under the higher noise conditions. Comparing the detection probabilities with Estimated Receiver Operating Characteristic (EROC) curves we found that the smaller value of consistency for PMCC and the larger p-value for AFD had the highest detection probability. These parameters produced greater changes in detection probability than estimates of the false alarm rate. The detection probability was impacted the most by noise level, with low noise (average RMS amplitude of 1.7 mPa) having an average detection probability of ~40% and high noise (average RMS amplitude of 2.9 mPa) average detection probability of ~23%.« less

Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

2005-01-01

We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Lost in search: (Mal-)adaptation to probabilistic decision environments in children and adults.

PubMed

Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

2016-02-01

Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103 adults' (age range: 21-22 years) search behaviors and decisions under different probability dispersions (.17; .33, .83 vs. .50, .67, .83) and constraint conditions (instructions to limit search: yes vs. no). All age groups limited their depth of search when instructed to do so and when probability dispersion was high (range: .17-.83). Unlike adults, children failed to use probabilities as weights for their searches, which were largely not systematic. When examining choices, however, elementary school children (unlike preschoolers) systematically used probabilities as weights in their decisions. This suggests that an intuitive understanding of probabilities and the capacity to use them as weights during integration is not a sufficient condition for applying simple selective search strategies that place one's focus on weight distributions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

Stability Analysis of Multi-Sensor Kalman Filtering over Lossy Networks

PubMed Central

Gao, Shouwan; Chen, Pengpeng; Huang, Dan; Niu, Qiang

2016-01-01

This paper studies the remote Kalman filtering problem for a distributed system setting with multiple sensors that are located at different physical locations. Each sensor encapsulates its own measurement data into one single packet and transmits the packet to the remote filter via a lossy distinct channel. For each communication channel, a time-homogeneous Markov chain is used to model the normal operating condition of packet delivery and losses. Based on the Markov model, a necessary and sufficient condition is obtained, which can guarantee the stability of the mean estimation error covariance. Especially, the stability condition is explicitly expressed as a simple inequality whose parameters are the spectral radius of the system state matrix and transition probabilities of the Markov chains. In contrast to the existing related results, our method imposes less restrictive conditions on systems. Finally, the results are illustrated by simulation examples. PMID:27104541

Bottom-Water Conditions in a Marine Basin after the Cretaceous–Paleogene Impact Event: Timing the Recovery of Oxygen Levels and Productivity

PubMed Central

Sosa-Montes De Oca, Claudia; Martínez-Ruiz, Francisca; Rodríguez-Tovar, Francisco Javier

2013-01-01

An ultra-high-resolution analysis of major and trace element contents from the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary interval in the Caravaca section, southeast Spain, reveals a quick recovery of depositional conditions after the impact event. Enrichment/depletion profiles of redox sensitive elements indicate significant geochemical anomalies just within the boundary ejecta layer, supporting an instantaneous recovery –some 102 years– of pre-impact conditions in terms of oxygenation. Geochemical redox proxies point to oxygen levels comparable to those at the end of the Cretaceous shortly after impact, which is further evidenced by the contemporary macrobenthic colonization of opportunistic tracemakers. Recovery of the oxygen conditions was therefore several orders shorter than traditional proposals (104–105 years), suggesting a probable rapid recovery of deep-sea ecosystems at bottom and in intermediate waters. PMID:24349232

The General Necessary Condition for the Validity of Dirac's Transition Perturbation Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quang, Nguyen Vinh

1996-01-01

For the first time, from the natural requirements for the successive approximation the general necessary condition of validity of the Dirac's method is explicitly established. It is proved that the conception of 'the transition probability per unit time' is not valid. The 'super-platinium rules' for calculating the transition probability are derived for the arbitrarily strong time-independent perturbation case.

Probability distributions of whisker-surface contact: quantifying elements of the rat vibrissotactile natural scene.

PubMed

Hobbs, Jennifer A; Towal, R Blythe; Hartmann, Mitra J Z

2015-08-01

Analysis of natural scene statistics has been a powerful approach for understanding neural coding in the auditory and visual systems. In the field of somatosensation, it has been more challenging to quantify the natural tactile scene, in part because somatosensory signals are so tightly linked to the animal's movements. The present work takes a step towards quantifying the natural tactile scene for the rat vibrissal system by simulating rat whisking motions to systematically investigate the probabilities of whisker-object contact in naturalistic environments. The simulations permit an exhaustive search through the complete space of possible contact patterns, thereby allowing for the characterization of the patterns that would most likely occur during long sequences of natural exploratory behavior. We specifically quantified the probabilities of 'concomitant contact', that is, given that a particular whisker makes contact with a surface during a whisk, what is the probability that each of the other whiskers will also make contact with the surface during that whisk? Probabilities of concomitant contact were quantified in simulations that assumed increasingly naturalistic conditions: first, the space of all possible head poses; second, the space of behaviorally preferred head poses as measured experimentally; and third, common head poses in environments such as cages and burrows. As environments became more naturalistic, the probability distributions shifted from exhibiting a 'row-wise' structure to a more diagonal structure. Results also reveal that the rat appears to use motor strategies (e.g. head pitches) that generate contact patterns that are particularly well suited to extract information in the presence of uncertainty. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Temporal patterns of apparent leg band retention in North American geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Kendall, William L.; Moser, Timothy J.; White, Gary C.; Doherty, Paul F.

2009-01-01

An important assumption of mark?recapture studies is that individuals retain their marks, which has not been assessed for goose reward bands. We estimated aluminum leg band retention probabilities and modeled how band retention varied with band type (standard vs. reward band), band age (1-40 months), and goose characteristics (species and size class) for Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (Branta hutchinsii), snow (Chen caerulescens), and Ross?s (Chen rossii) geese that field coordinators double-leg banded during a North American goose reward band study (N = 40,999 individuals from 15 populations). We conditioned all models in this analysis on geese that were encountered with >1 leg band still attached (n = 5,747 dead recoveries and live recaptures). Retention probabilities for standard aluminum leg bands were high (estimate of 0.9995, SE = 0.001) and constant over 1-40 months. In contrast, apparent retention probabilities for reward bands demonstrated an interactive relationship between 5 size and species classes (small cackling, medium Canada, large Canada, snow, and Ross?s geese). In addition, apparent retention probabilities for each of the 5 classes varied quadratically with time, being lower immediately after banding and at older age classes. The differential retention probabilities among band type (reward vs. standard) that we observed suggests that 1) models estimating reporting probability should incorporate differential band loss if it is nontrivial, 2) goose managers should consider the costs and benefits of double-banding geese on an operational basis, and 3) the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Lab should modify protocols for receiving recovery data.

Minefield reconnaissance and detector system

DOEpatents

Butler, Millard T.; Cave, Steven P.; Creager, James D.; Johnson, Charles M.; Mathes, John B.; Smith, Kirk J.

1994-01-01

A multi-sensor system (10) for detecting the presence of objects on the surface of the ground or buried just under the surface, such as anti-personnel or anti-tank mines or the like. A remote sensor platform (12) has a plurality of metal detector sensors (22) and a plurality of short pulse radar sensors (24). The remote sensor platform (12) is remotely controlled from a processing and control unit (14) and signals from the remote sensor platform (12) are sent to the processing and control unit (14) where they are individually evaluated in separate data analysis subprocess steps (34, 36) to obtain a probability "score" for each of the pluralities of sensors (22, 24). These probability scores are combined in a fusion subprocess step (38) by comparing score sets to a probability table (130) which is derived based upon the historical incidence of object present conditions given that score set. A decision making rule is applied to provide an output which is optionally provided to a marker subprocess (40) for controlling a marker device (76) to mark the location of found objects.

Two models for microsimulation of family life cycle and family structure.

PubMed

Bertino, S; Pinnelli, A; Vichi, M

1988-01-01

2 models are proposed for the microsimulation of the family and analysis of family structure and life cycle. These models were devised primarily for teaching purposes. The families are composed of 3 generations (parents, grandparents, children). Cohabitation is not considered. The 1st model is governed by a transition mechanism based on the rules of a Markov multidimensional, nonhonogeneous chain. The 2nd model is based on stochastic point processes. Input data comprise annual mortality probability according to 1) sex, 2) age, 3) civil status, 4) annual probability of 1st marriage, 5) age combinations between the spouses, and 6) the probability of having 1, 2, or 3 children at 6 months intervals from the previous event (marriage or birth of nth child). The applications of the 1st model are presented using 2 mortality and fertility hypotheses (high and low) and a nuptiality hypothesis (West European nature). The various features of family composition are analyzed according to the duration of a couple's marriage and the age of the individual, as well as the characteristic features of the individual and family life cycle given these 2 demographic conditions.

A study of carburetor/induction system icing in general aviation accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obermayer, R. W.; Roe, W. T.

1975-01-01

An assessment of the frequency and severity of carburetor/induction icing in general-aviation accidents was performed. The available literature and accident data from the National Transportation Safety Board were collected. A computer analysis of the accident data was performed. Between 65 and 90 accidents each year involve carburetor/induction system icing as a probable cause/factor. Under conditions conducive to carburetor/induction icing, between 50 and 70 percent of engine malfunction/failure accidents (exclusive of those due to fuel exhaustion) are due to carburetor/induction system icing. Since the evidence of such icing may not remain long after an accident, it is probable that the frequency of occurrence of such accidents is underestimated; therefore, some extrapolation of the data was conducted. The problem of carburetor/induction system icing is particularly acute for pilots with less than 1000 hours of total flying time. The severity of such accidents is about the same as any accident resulting from a forced landing or precautionary landing. About 144 persons, on the average, are exposed to death and injury each year in accidents involving carburetor/induction icing as a probable cause/factor.

Real Time Data Management for Estimating Probabilities of Incidents and Near Misses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanitsas, P. D.; Stephanedes, Y. J.

2011-08-01

Advances in real-time data collection, data storage and computational systems have led to development of algorithms for transport administrators and engineers that improve traffic safety and reduce cost of road operations. Despite these advances, problems in effectively integrating real-time data acquisition, processing, modelling and road-use strategies at complex intersections and motorways remain. These are related to increasing system performance in identification, analysis, detection and prediction of traffic state in real time. This research develops dynamic models to estimate the probability of road incidents, such as crashes and conflicts, and incident-prone conditions based on real-time data. The models support integration of anticipatory information and fee-based road use strategies in traveller information and management. Development includes macroscopic/microscopic probabilistic models, neural networks, and vector autoregressions tested via machine vision at EU and US sites.

A method to establish stimulus control and compliance with instructions.

PubMed

Borgen, John G; Charles Mace, F; Cavanaugh, Brenna M; Shamlian, Kenneth; Lit, Keith R; Wilson, Jillian B; Trauschke, Stephanie L

2017-10-01

We evaluated a unique procedure to establish compliance with instructions in four young children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) who had low levels of compliance. Our procedure included methods to establish a novel therapist as a source of positive reinforcement, reliably evoke orienting responses to the therapist, increase the number of exposures to instruction-compliance-reinforcer contingencies, and minimize the number of exposures to instruction-noncompliance-no reinforcer contingencies. We further alternated between instructions with a high probability of compliance (high-p instructions) with instructions that had a prior low probability of compliance (low-p instructions) as soon as low-p instructions lost stimulus control. The intervention is discussed in relation to the conditions necessary for the development of stimulus control and as an example of a variation of translational research. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

How mutation affects evolutionary games on graphs

PubMed Central

Allen, Benjamin; Traulsen, Arne; Tarnita, Corina E.; Nowak, Martin A.

2011-01-01

Evolutionary dynamics are affected by population structure, mutation rates and update rules. Spatial or network structure facilitates the clustering of strategies, which represents a mechanism for the evolution of cooperation. Mutation dilutes this effect. Here we analyze how mutation influences evolutionary clustering on graphs. We introduce new mathematical methods to evolutionary game theory, specifically the analysis of coalescing random walks via generating functions. These techniques allow us to derive exact identity-by-descent (IBD) probabilities, which characterize spatial assortment on lattices and Cayley trees. From these IBD probabilities we obtain exact conditions for the evolution of cooperation and other game strategies, showing the dual effects of graph topology and mutation rate. High mutation rates diminish the clustering of cooperators, hindering their evolutionary success. Our model can represent either genetic evolution with mutation, or social imitation processes with random strategy exploration. PMID:21473871

Shallow slip amplification and enhanced tsunami hazard unravelled by dynamic simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes

PubMed Central

Murphy, S.; Scala, A.; Herrero, A.; Lorito, S.; Festa, G.; Trasatti, E.; Tonini, R.; Romano, F.; Molinari, I.; Nielsen, S.

2016-01-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced an unexpected large amount of shallow slip greatly contributing to the ensuing tsunami. How frequent are such events? How can they be efficiently modelled for tsunami hazard? Stochastic slip models, which can be computed rapidly, are used to explore the natural slip variability; however, they generally do not deal specifically with shallow slip features. We study the systematic depth-dependence of slip along a thrust fault with a number of 2D dynamic simulations using stochastic shear stress distributions and a geometry based on the cross section of the Tohoku fault. We obtain a probability density for the slip distribution, which varies both with depth, earthquake size and whether the rupture breaks the surface. We propose a method to modify stochastic slip distributions according to this dynamically-derived probability distribution. This method may be efficiently applied to produce large numbers of heterogeneous slip distributions for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. Using numerous M9 earthquake scenarios, we demonstrate that incorporating the dynamically-derived probability distribution does enhance the conditional probability of exceedance of maximum estimated tsunami wave heights along the Japanese coast. This technique for integrating dynamic features in stochastic models can be extended to any subduction zone and faulting style. PMID:27725733

On the sensitivity of 4 different CPV module technologies to relevant ambient and operation conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez, César; Besson, Pierre

2014-09-01

The sensitivity of four different CPV module technologies to most operating conditions relevant to CPV systems has been studied, namely DNI, spectrum, cell and lens temperature and clearness of the sky. In order to isolate the influence of a single operation parameter, the analysis of long-term outdoor monitoring data is required. The effect of lens temperature on cell current has been found to vary greatly between modules due to the different optical architectures studied. Maximum sensitivity is found for silicone-on-glass primary lenses. The VOC thermal coefficient was found to vary between module technologies, probably due to differences in maximum local effective concentration.

Shape fabric development in rigid clast populations under pure shear: The influence of no-slip versus slip boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulchrone, Kieran F.; Meere, Patrick A.

2015-09-01

Shape fabrics of elliptical objects in rocks are usually assumed to develop by passive behavior of inclusions with respect to the surrounding material leading to shape-based strain analysis methods belonging to the Rf/ϕ family. A probability density function is derived for the orientational characteristics of populations of rigid ellipses deforming in a pure shear 2D deformation with both no-slip and slip boundary conditions. Using maximum likelihood a numerical method is developed for estimating finite strain in natural populations deforming for both mechanisms. Application to a natural example indicates the importance of the slip mechanism in explaining clast shape fabrics in deformed sediments.

The study of the proteome of healthy human blood plasma under conditions of long-term confinement in an isolation chamber.

PubMed

Trifonova, O P; Pastushkova, L Kh; Samenkova, N F; Chernobrovkin, A L; Karuzina, I I; Lisitsa, A V; Larina, I M

2013-05-01

We identified changes in the proteome of healthy human blood plasma caused by exposure to 105-day confinement in an isolation chamber. After removal of major proteins and concentration of minor proteins, plasma fractions were analyzed by two-dimensional electrophoresis followed by identification of significantly different protein spots by mass spectrometric analysis of the peptide fragments. The levels of α- and β-chains of fibrinogen, a fragment of complement factor C4, apolipoproteins AI and E, plasminogen factor C1 complement, and immunoglobulin M changed in participants during the isolation period. These changes probably reflect the adaptive response to altered conditions of life.

Deterioration and cost information for bridge management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

This study applies contract bid tabulations and elementlevel condition records to develop elementlevel actions, : costs for actions, transition probabilities for models of deterioration of bridge elements, and transition probabilities : for imp...

[Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].

PubMed

Stavem, K

2000-01-10

Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.

Structural reliability assessment of the Oman India Pipeline

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al-Sharif, A.M.; Preston, R.

1996-12-31

Reliability techniques are increasingly finding application in design. The special design conditions for the deep water sections of the Oman India Pipeline dictate their use since the experience basis for application of standard deterministic techniques is inadequate. The paper discusses the reliability analysis as applied to the Oman India Pipeline, including selection of a collapse model, characterization of the variability in the parameters that affect pipe resistance to collapse, and implementation of first and second order reliability analyses to assess the probability of pipe failure. The reliability analysis results are used as the basis for establishing the pipe wall thicknessmore » requirements for the pipeline.« less

Exploratory reconstructability analysis of accident TBI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwick, Martin; Carney, Nancy; Nettleton, Rosemary

2018-02-01

This paper describes the use of reconstructability analysis to perform a secondary study of traumatic brain injury data from automobile accidents. Neutral searches were done and their results displayed with a hypergraph. Directed searches, using both variable-based and state-based models, were applied to predict performance on two cognitive tests and one neurological test. Very simple state-based models gave large uncertainty reductions for all three DVs and sizeable improvements in percent correct for the two cognitive test DVs which were equally sampled. Conditional probability distributions for these models are easily visualized with simple decision trees. Confounding variables and counter-intuitive findings are also reported.

Testing for EMC (electromagnetic compatibility) in the clinical environment.

PubMed

Paperman, D; David, Y; Martinez, M

1996-01-01

Testing for electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) in the clinical environment introduces a host of complex conditions not normally encountered under laboratory conditions. In the clinical environment, various radio-frequency (RF) sources of electromagnetic interference (EMI) may be present throughout the entire spectrum of interest. Isolating and analyzing the impact from the sources of interference to medical devices involves a multidisciplinary approach based on training in, and knowledge of, the following: operation of medical devices and their susceptibility to EMI; RF propagation modalities and interaction theory; spectrum analysis systems and techniques (preferably with signature analysis capabilities) and calibrated antennas; the investigation methodology of suspected EMC problems, and testing protocols and standards. Using combinations of standard test procedures adapted for the clinical environment with personnel that have an understanding of radio-frequency behavior increases the probability of controlling, proactively, EMI in the clinical environment, thus providing for a safe and more effective patient care environment.

Attentional responses to stimuli associated with a reward can occur in the absence of knowledge of their predictive values.

PubMed

Leganes-Fonteneau, Mateo; Scott, Ryan; Duka, Theodora

2018-04-02

Classical conditioning theories of addiction suggest that stimuli associated with rewards acquire incentive salience, inducing emotional and attentional conditioned responses. It is not clear whether those responses occur without contingency awareness (CA), i.e. are based on explicit or implicit learning processes. Examining implicit aspects of stimulus-reward associations can improve our understanding of addictive behaviours, supporting treatment and prevention strategies. However, the acquisition of conditioned responses without CA has yet to be rigorously demonstrated, as the existing literature shows a lack of methodological agreement regarding the measurement of implicit and explicit processes. The purpose of two experiments presented here was to study the emotional value acquired by CS through implicit emotional and attentional processes, trying to overcome critical methodological issues. Experiment 1 (n = 48) paired two stimuli categories (houses/buildings) with high (HR) or low (LR) probabilities of monetary reward. An Emotional Attentional Blink revealed preferential attention for HR over LR regardless of CA; while pleasantness ratings were unaffected, probably due to the intrinsic nature of CS. Experiment 2 (n = 60) replicated the effect of conditioning on the Emotional Attentional Blink utilising abstract CS (octagons/squares). In addition increased pleasantness for HR over LR was found significant overall, and marginally significant for Aware but not for Unaware participants. Here CA was rigorously determined using a signal-detection analysis and metacognitive-awareness measurements. Bayesian analyses verified the unconscious nature of the learning. These findings demonstrate that attentional conditioned responses can occur without CA and advance our understanding of the mechanisms by which implicit conditioning can occur and becomes observable. Furthermore, these results can highlight how addictive behaviours might develop. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The efficacy of fuel treatment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: Insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Bradstock, Ross A

2012-12-30

Treatment of fuel (e.g. prescribed fire, logging) in fire-prone ecosystems is done to reduce risks to people and their property but effects require quantification, particularly under severe weather conditions when the destructive potential of fires on human infrastructure is maximised. We analysed the relative effects of fuel age (i.e. indicative of the effectiveness of prescribed fire) and logging on remotely sensed (SPOT imagery) severity of fires which occurred in eucalypt forests in Victoria, Australia in 2009. These fires burned under the most severe weather conditions recorded in Australia and caused large losses of life and property. Statistical models of the probability of contrasting extremes of severity (crown fire versus fire confined to the understorey) were developed based on effects of fuel age, logging, weather, topography and forest type. Weather was the primary influence on severity, though it was reduced at low fuel ages in Moderate but not Catastrophic, Very High or Low fire-weather conditions. Probability of crown fires was higher in recently logged areas than in areas logged decades before, indicating likely ineffectiveness as a fuel treatment. The results suggest that recently burnt areas (up to 5-10 years) may reduce the intensity of the fire but not sufficiently to increase the chance of effective suppression under severe weather conditions. Since house loss was most likely under these conditions (67%), effects of prescribed burning across landscapes on house loss are likely to be small when weather conditions are severe. Fuel treatments need to be located close to houses in order to effectively mitigate risk of loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A quantitative analysis of household energy consumption in rural west Java: with particular emphasis on socio-economic influences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadi, S.S.

1982-01-01

A survey was conducted to estimate per capita, per household, and total energy consumption by region, by level of development, and by fuel source in rural West Java. Socio-economic conditions were also measured by using parameters that included income, family size, husband education, wife education, biomass fuelstock, level of village development, and land size. These data are tabulated and used to develop a model that can predict probabilities of fuel use, consumption, and variety.

A Modal Analysis of Submerged Composite Plates Using Digital Speckle Pattern Interferometry

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-05-01

the drive point. The underwater mode shapes were slightly deformed compared to the in- air modes which is probably due to modal coupling by the dense...modes according to Leissa. The mode shapes in water are very similar to those in air with a small amount of distortion due to modal coupling by the fluid...and cantilever boundarv conditions is described in this thesis. The vibrations of the plates are studies in air and when Submerged in a water tank to

REVIEWS OF TOPICAL PROBLEMS: Cosmology, primordial black holes, and supermassive particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polnarev, A. G.; Khlopov, M. Yu

1985-03-01

Analysis of astrophysical restrictions on the spectrum of primordial black holes (PBH) makes it possible to obtain indirect information about the physical conditions in the very early universe. These restrictions are compared with the probability of PBH production in early dust stages as predicted on the basis of modern models of quantum field theory. As a result of such comparison, restrictions are obtained on the parameters of various models corresponding to different values of the parameters of the spectrum of initial small-scale inhomogeneities.

Landsat D Thematic Mapper image dimensionality reduction and geometric correction accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ford, G. E.

1986-01-01

To characterize and quantify the performance of the Landsat thematic mapper (TM), techniques for dimensionality reduction by linear transformation have been studied and evaluated and the accuracy of the correction of geometric errors in TM images analyzed. Theoretical evaluations and comparisons for existing methods for the design of linear transformation for dimensionality reduction are presented. These methods include the discrete Karhunen Loeve (KL) expansion, Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Thematic Mapper (TM)-Tasseled Cap Linear Transformation and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). A unified approach to these design problems is presented in which each method involves optimizing an objective function with respect to the linear transformation matrix. From these studies, four modified methods are proposed. They are referred to as the Space Variant Linear Transformation, the KL Transform-MDA hybrid method, and the First and Second Version of the Weighted MDA method. The modifications involve the assignment of weights to classes to achieve improvements in the class conditional probability of error for classes with high weights. Experimental evaluations of the existing and proposed methods have been performed using the six reflective bands of the TM data. It is shown that in terms of probability of classification error and the percentage of the cumulative eigenvalues, the six reflective bands of the TM data require only a three dimensional feature space. It is shown experimentally as well that for the proposed methods, the classes with high weights have improvements in class conditional probability of error estimates as expected.

Conditional long-term survival following minimally invasive robotic mitral valve repair: a health services perspective.

PubMed

Efird, Jimmy T; Griffin, William F; Gudimella, Preeti; O'Neal, Wesley T; Davies, Stephen W; Crane, Patricia B; Anderson, Ethan J; Kindell, Linda C; Landrine, Hope; O'Neal, Jason B; Alwair, Hazaim; Kypson, Alan P; Nifong, Wiley L; Chitwood, W Randolph

2015-09-01

Conditional survival is defined as the probability of surviving an additional number of years beyond that already survived. The aim of this study was to compute conditional survival in patients who received a robotically assisted, minimally invasive mitral valve repair procedure (RMVP). Patients who received RMVP with annuloplasty band from May 2000 through April 2011 were included. A 5- and 10-year conditional survival model was computed using a multivariable product-limit method. Non-smoking men (≤65 years) who presented in sinus rhythm had a 96% probability of surviving at least 10 years if they survived their first year following surgery. In contrast, recent female smokers (>65 years) with preoperative atrial fibrillation only had an 11% probability of surviving beyond 10 years if alive after one year post-surgery. In the context of an increasingly managed healthcare environment, conditional survival provides useful information for patients needing to make important treatment decisions, physicians seeking to select patients most likely to benefit long-term following RMVP, and hospital administrators needing to comparatively assess the life-course economic value of high-tech surgical procedures.

Predictive models attribute effects on fish assemblages to toxicity and habitat alteration.

PubMed

de Zwart, Dick; Dyer, Scott D; Posthuma, Leo; Hawkins, Charles P

2006-08-01

Biological assessments should both estimate the condition of a biological resource (magnitude of alteration) and provide environmental managers with a diagnosis of the potential causes of impairment. Although methods of quantifying condition are well developed, identifying and proportionately attributing impairment to probable causes remain problematic. Furthermore, analyses of both condition and cause have often been difficult to communicate. We developed an approach that (1) links fish, habitat, and chemistry data collected from hundreds of sites in Ohio (USA) streams, (2) assesses the biological condition at each site, (3) attributes impairment to multiple probable causes, and (4) provides the results of the analyses in simple-to-interpret pie charts. The data set was managed using a geographic information system. Biological condition was assessed using a RIVPACS (river invertebrate prediction and classification system)-like predictive model. The model provided probabilities of capture for 117 fish species based on the geographic location of sites and local habitat descriptors. Impaired biological condition was defined as the proportion of those native species predicted to occur at a site that were observed. The potential toxic effects of exposure to mixtures of contaminants were estimated using species sensitivity distributions and mixture toxicity principles. Generalized linear regression models described species abundance as a function of habitat characteristics. Statistically linking biological condition, habitat characteristics including mixture risks, and species abundance allowed us to evaluate the losses of species with environmental conditions. Results were mapped as simple effect and probable-cause pie charts (EPC pie diagrams), with pie sizes corresponding to magnitude of local impairment, and slice sizes to the relative probable contributions of different stressors. The types of models we used have been successfully applied in ecology and ecotoxicology, but they have not previously been used in concert to quantify impairment and its likely causes. Although data limitations constrained our ability to examine complex interactions between stressors and species, the direct relationships we detected likely represent conservative estimates of stressor contributions to local impairment. Future refinements of the general approach and specific methods described here should yield even more promising results.

Modeling summer month hydrological drought probabilities in the United States using antecedent flow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Nelms, David L.

2017-01-01

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5-11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best-performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.

Experimental investigation of the intensity fluctuation joint probability and conditional distributions of the twin-beam quantum state.

PubMed

Zhang, Yun; Kasai, Katsuyuki; Watanabe, Masayoshi

2003-01-13

We give the intensity fluctuation joint probability of the twin-beam quantum state, which was generated with an optical parametric oscillator operating above threshold. Then we present what to our knowledge is the first measurement of the intensity fluctuation conditional probability distributions of twin beams. The measured inference variance of twin beams 0.62+/-0.02, which is less than the standard quantum limit of unity, indicates inference with a precision better than that of separable states. The measured photocurrent variance exhibits a quantum correlation of as much as -4.9+/-0.2 dB between the signal and the idler.

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

2009-01-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

A probability space for quantum models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Rethinking the learning of belief network probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Musick, R.

Belief networks are a powerful tool for knowledge discovery that provide concise, understandable probabilistic models of data. There are methods grounded in probability theory to incrementally update the relationships described by the belief network when new information is seen, to perform complex inferences over any set of variables in the data, to incorporate domain expertise and prior knowledge into the model, and to automatically learn the model from data. This paper concentrates on part of the belief network induction problem, that of learning the quantitative structure (the conditional probabilities), given the qualitative structure. In particular, the current practice of rotemore » learning the probabilities in belief networks can be significantly improved upon. We advance the idea of applying any learning algorithm to the task of conditional probability learning in belief networks, discuss potential benefits, and show results of applying neutral networks and other algorithms to a medium sized car insurance belief network. The results demonstrate from 10 to 100% improvements in model error rates over the current approaches.« less

Class-conditional feature modeling for ignitable liquid classification with substantial substrate contribution in fire debris analysis.

PubMed

Lopatka, Martin; Sigman, Michael E; Sjerps, Marjan J; Williams, Mary R; Vivó-Truyols, Gabriel

2015-07-01

Forensic chemical analysis of fire debris addresses the question of whether ignitable liquid residue is present in a sample and, if so, what type. Evidence evaluation regarding this question is complicated by interference from pyrolysis products of the substrate materials present in a fire. A method is developed to derive a set of class-conditional features for the evaluation of such complex samples. The use of a forensic reference collection allows characterization of the variation in complex mixtures of substrate materials and ignitable liquids even when the dominant feature is not specific to an ignitable liquid. Making use of a novel method for data imputation under complex mixing conditions, a distribution is modeled for the variation between pairs of samples containing similar ignitable liquid residues. Examining the covariance of variables within the different classes allows different weights to be placed on features more important in discerning the presence of a particular ignitable liquid residue. Performance of the method is evaluated using a database of total ion spectrum (TIS) measurements of ignitable liquid and fire debris samples. These measurements include 119 nominal masses measured by GC-MS and averaged across a chromatographic profile. Ignitable liquids are labeled using the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) E1618 standard class definitions. Statistical analysis is performed in the class-conditional feature space wherein new forensic traces are represented based on their likeness to known samples contained in a forensic reference collection. The demonstrated method uses forensic reference data as the basis of probabilistic statements concerning the likelihood of the obtained analytical results given the presence of ignitable liquid residue of each of the ASTM classes (including a substrate only class). When prior probabilities of these classes can be assumed, these likelihoods can be connected to class probabilities. In order to compare the performance of this method to previous work, a uniform prior was assumed, resulting in an 81% accuracy for an independent test of 129 real burn samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personnel reliability impact on petrochemical facilities monitoring system's failure skipping probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyukov, V. N.; Naumenko, A. P.

2017-08-01

The paper dwells upon urgent issues of evaluating impact of actions conducted by complex technological systems operators on their safe operation considering application of condition monitoring systems for elements and sub-systems of petrochemical production facilities. The main task for the research is to distinguish factors and criteria of monitoring system properties description, which would allow to evaluate impact of errors made by personnel on operation of real-time condition monitoring and diagnostic systems for machinery of petrochemical facilities, and find and objective criteria for monitoring system class, considering a human factor. On the basis of real-time condition monitoring concepts of sudden failure skipping risk, static and dynamic error, monitoring systems, one may solve a task of evaluation of impact that personnel's qualification has on monitoring system operation in terms of error in personnel or operators' actions while receiving information from monitoring systems and operating a technological system. Operator is considered as a part of the technological system. Although, personnel's behavior is usually a combination of the following parameters: input signal - information perceiving, reaction - decision making, response - decision implementing. Based on several researches on behavior of nuclear powers station operators in USA, Italy and other countries, as well as on researches conducted by Russian scientists, required data on operator's reliability were selected for analysis of operator's behavior at technological facilities diagnostics and monitoring systems. The calculations revealed that for the monitoring system selected as an example, the failure skipping risk for the set values of static (less than 0.01) and dynamic (less than 0.001) errors considering all related factors of data on reliability of information perception, decision-making, and reaction fulfilled is 0.037, in case when all the facilities and error probability are under control - not more than 0.027. In case when only pump and compressor units are under control, the failure skipping risk is not more than 0.022, when the probability of error in operator's action is not more than 0.011. The work output shows that on the basis of the researches results an assessment of operators' reliability can be made in terms of almost any kind of production, but considering only technological capabilities, since operators' psychological and general training considerable vary in different production industries. Using latest technologies of engineering psychology and design of data support systems, situation assessment systems, decision-making and responding system, as well as achievement in condition monitoring in various production industries one can evaluate hazardous condition skipping risk probability considering static, dynamic errors and human factor.

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

PubMed

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

Predicting Redox Conditions in Groundwater Using Statistical Techniques: Implications for Nitrate Transport in Groundwater and Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesoriero, A. J.; Terziotti, S.

2014-12-01

Nitrate trends in streams often do not match expectations based on recent nitrogen source loadings to the land surface. Groundwater discharge with long travel times has been suggested as the likely cause for these observations. The fate of nitrate in groundwater depends to a large extent on the occurrence of denitrification along flow paths. Because denitrification in groundwater is inhibited when dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are high, defining the oxic-suboxic interface has been critical in determining pathways for nitrate transport in groundwater and to streams at the local scale. Predicting redox conditions on a regional scale is complicated by the spatial variability of reaction rates. In this study, logistic regression and boosted classification tree analysis were used to predict the probability of oxic water in groundwater in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The probability of oxic water (DO > 2 mg/L) was predicted by relating DO concentrations in over 3,000 groundwater samples to indicators of residence time and/or electron donor availability. Variables that describe position in the flow system (e.g., depth to top of the open interval), soil drainage and surficial geology were the most important predictors of oxic water. Logistic regression and boosted classification tree analysis correctly predicted the presence or absence of oxic conditions in over 75 % of the samples in both training and validation data sets. Predictions of the percentages of oxic wells in deciles of risk were very accurate (r2>0.9) in both the training and validation data sets. Depth to the bottom of the oxic layer was predicted and is being used to estimate the effect that groundwater denitrification has on stream nitrate concentrations and the time lag between the application of nitrogen at the land surface and its effect on streams.

Egg production of turbot, Scophthalmus maximus, in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissling, Anders; Florin, Ann-Britt; Thorsen, Anders; Bergström, Ulf

2013-11-01

In the brackish water Baltic Sea turbot spawn at ~ 6-9 psu along the coast and on offshore banks in ICES SD 24-29, with salinity influencing the reproductive success. The potential fecundity (the stock of vitellogenic oocytes in the pre-spawning ovary), egg size (diameter and dry weight of artificially fertilized 1-day-old eggs) and gonad dry weight were assessed for fish sampled in SD 25 and SD 28. Multiple regression analysis identified somatic weight, or total length in combination with Fulton's condition factor, as main predictors of fecundity and gonad dry weight with stage of maturity (oocyte packing density or leading cohort) as an additional predictor. For egg size, somatic weight was identified as main predictor while otolith weight (proxy for age) was an additional predictor. Univariate analysis using GLM revealed significantly higher fecundity and gonad dry weight for turbot from SD 28 (3378-3474 oocytes/g somatic weight) compared to those from SD 25 (2343 oocytes/g somatic weight), with no difference in egg size (1.05 ± 0.03 mm diameter and 46.8 ± 6.5 μg dry weight; mean ± sd). The difference in egg production matched egg survival probabilities in relation to salinity conditions suggesting selection for higher fecundity as a consequence of poorer reproductive success at lower salinities. This supports the hypothesis of higher size-specific fecundity towards the limit of the distribution of a species as an adaptation to harsher environmental conditions and lower offspring survival probabilities. Within SD 28 comparisons were made between two major fishing areas targeting spawning aggregations and a marine protected area without fishing. The outcome was inconclusive and is discussed with respect to potential fishery induced effects, effects of the salinity gradient, effects of specific year-classes, and effects of maturation status of sampled fish.

Review of probabilistic analysis of dynamic response of systems with random parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozin, F.; Klosner, J. M.

1989-01-01

The various methods that have been studied in the past to allow probabilistic analysis of dynamic response for systems with random parameters are reviewed. Dynamic response may have been obtained deterministically if the variations about the nominal values were small; however, for space structures which require precise pointing, the variations about the nominal values of the structural details and of the environmental conditions are too large to be considered as negligible. These uncertainties are accounted for in terms of probability distributions about their nominal values. The quantities of concern for describing the response of the structure includes displacements, velocities, and the distributions of natural frequencies. The exact statistical characterization of the response would yield joint probability distributions for the response variables. Since the random quantities will appear as coefficients, determining the exact distributions will be difficult at best. Thus, certain approximations will have to be made. A number of techniques that are available are discussed, even in the nonlinear case. The methods that are described were: (1) Liouville's equation; (2) perturbation methods; (3) mean square approximate systems; and (4) nonlinear systems with approximation by linear systems.

PDF-based heterogeneous multiscale filtration model.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Rutland, Christopher J

2015-04-21

Motivated by modeling of gasoline particulate filters (GPFs), a probability density function (PDF) based heterogeneous multiscale filtration (HMF) model is developed to calculate filtration efficiency of clean particulate filters. A new methodology based on statistical theory and classic filtration theory is developed in the HMF model. Based on the analysis of experimental porosimetry data, a pore size probability density function is introduced to represent heterogeneity and multiscale characteristics of the porous wall. The filtration efficiency of a filter can be calculated as the sum of the contributions of individual collectors. The resulting HMF model overcomes the limitations of classic mean filtration models which rely on tuning of the mean collector size. Sensitivity analysis shows that the HMF model recovers the classical mean model when the pore size variance is very small. The HMF model is validated by fundamental filtration experimental data from different scales of filter samples. The model shows a good agreement with experimental data at various operating conditions. The effects of the microstructure of filters on filtration efficiency as well as the most penetrating particle size are correctly predicted by the model.

Physical and chemical properties of the Martian soil: Review of resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoker, C. R.; Gooding, James L.; Banin, A.; Clark, Benton C.; Roush, Ted

1991-01-01

The chemical and physical properties of Martian surface materials are reviewed from the perspective of using these resources to support human settlement. The resource potential of Martian sediments and soils can only be inferred from limited analyses performed by the Viking Landers (VL), from information derived from remote sensing, and from analysis of the SNC meteorites thought to be from Mars. Bulk elemental compositions by the VL inorganic chemical (x ray fluorescence) analysis experiments have been interpreted as evidence for clay minerals (possibly smectites) or mineraloids (palagonite) admixed with sulfate and chloride salts. The materials contained minerals bearing Fe, Ti, Al, Mg and Si. Martian surface materials may be used in many ways. Martian soil, with appropriate preconditioning, can probably be used as a plant growth medium, supplying mechanical support, nutrient elements, and water at optimal conditions to the plants. Loose Martian soils could be used to cover structures and provide radiation shielding for surface habitats. Martian soil could be wetted and formed into abode bricks used for construction. Duricrete bricks, with strength comparable to concrete, can probably be formed using compressed muds made from martian soil.

Enclosure fire hazard analysis using relative energy release criteria. [burning rate and combustion control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulbert, C. D.

1978-01-01

A method for predicting the probable course of fire development in an enclosure is presented. This fire modeling approach uses a graphic plot of five fire development constraints, the relative energy release criteria (RERC), to bound the heat release rates in an enclosure as a function of time. The five RERC are flame spread rate, fuel surface area, ventilation, enclosure volume, and total fuel load. They may be calculated versus time based on the specified or empirical conditions describing the specific enclosure, the fuel type and load, and the ventilation. The calculation of these five criteria, using the common basis of energy release rates versus time, provides a unifying framework for the utilization of available experimental data from all phases of fire development. The plot of these criteria reveals the probable fire development envelope and indicates which fire constraint will be controlling during a criteria time period. Examples of RERC application to fire characterization and control and to hazard analysis are presented along with recommendations for the further development of the concept.

Characterizing the information content of cloud thermodynamic phase retrievals from the notional PACE OCI shortwave reflectance measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coddington, O. M.; Vukicevic, T.; Schmidt, K. S.; Platnick, S.

2017-08-01

We rigorously quantify the probability of liquid or ice thermodynamic phase using only shortwave spectral channels specific to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite, and the notional future Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem imager. The results show that two shortwave-infrared channels (2135 and 2250 nm) provide more information on cloud thermodynamic phase than either channel alone; in one case, the probability of ice phase retrieval increases from 65 to 82% by combining 2135 and 2250 nm channels. The analysis is performed with a nonlinear statistical estimation approach, the GEneralized Nonlinear Retrieval Analysis (GENRA). The GENRA technique has previously been used to quantify the retrieval of cloud optical properties from passive shortwave observations, for an assumed thermodynamic phase. Here we present the methodology needed to extend the utility of GENRA to a binary thermodynamic phase space (i.e., liquid or ice). We apply formal information content metrics to quantify our results; two of these (mutual and conditional information) have not previously been used in the field of cloud studies.

Vegetation dynamics during the late Pleistocene in the Barreirinhas region, Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil, based on carbon isotopes in soil organic matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pessenda, Luiz Carlos Ruiz; Ribeiro, Adauto de Souza; Gouveia, Susy Eli Marques; Aravena, Ramon; Boulet, Rene; Bendassolli, José Albertino

2004-09-01

The study place is in the Barreirinhas region, Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil. A vegetation transect of 78 km was studied among four vegetation types: Restinga (coastal vegetation), Cerrado (woody savanna), Cerradão (dense woody savanna), and Forest, as well as three forested sites around Lagoa do Caçó, located approximately 10 km of the transect. Soil profiles in this transect were sampled for δ13C analysis, as well as buried charcoal fragments were used for 14C dating. The data interpretation indicated that approximately between 15,000 and ˜9000 14C yr B.P., arboreal vegetation prevailed in the whole transect, probably due to the presence of a humid climate. Approximately between ˜9000 and 4000-3000 14C yr B.P., there was the expansion of the savanna, probably related to the presence of drier climate. From ˜4000-3000 14C yr B.P. to the present, the results indicated an increase in the arboreal density in the area, due to the return to a more humid and probably similar climate to the present. The presence of buried charcoal fragments in several soil depths suggested the occurrence of palaeofires during the Holocene. The vegetation dynamic inferred in this study for northeastern Brazil is in agreement with the results obtained in areas of Amazon region, based on pollen analysis of lake sediments and carbon isotope analysis of soil organic matter (SOM), implying than similar climatic conditions have affected these areas during the late Pleistocene until the present.

Probability, propensity and probability of propensities (and of probabilities)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Agostini, Giulio

2017-06-01

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real life applications, arise quite naturally and the resulting discussion among non-ideologized, free-minded people offers an opportunity for clarifications.

Influences of Source-Item Contingency and Schematic Knowledge on Source Monitoring: Tests of the Probability-Matching Account

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bayen, Ute J.; Kuhlmann, Beatrice G.

2011-01-01

The authors investigated conditions under which judgments in source-monitoring tasks are influenced by prior schematic knowledge. According to a probability-matching account of source guessing (Spaniol & Bayen, 2002), when people do not remember the source of information, they match source-guessing probabilities to the perceived contingency…

The role of probabilities in physics.

PubMed

Le Bellac, Michel

2012-09-01

Although modern physics was born in the XVIIth century as a fully deterministic theory in the form of Newtonian mechanics, the use of probabilistic arguments turned out later on to be unavoidable. Three main situations can be distinguished. (1) When the number of degrees of freedom is very large, on the order of Avogadro's number, a detailed dynamical description is not possible, and in fact not useful: we do not care about the velocity of a particular molecule in a gas, all we need is the probability distribution of the velocities. This statistical description introduced by Maxwell and Boltzmann allows us to recover equilibrium thermodynamics, gives a microscopic interpretation of entropy and underlies our understanding of irreversibility. (2) Even when the number of degrees of freedom is small (but larger than three) sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics makes determinism irrelevant in practice, because we cannot control the initial conditions with infinite accuracy. Although die tossing is in principle predictable, the approach to chaotic dynamics in some limit implies that our ignorance of initial conditions is translated into a probabilistic description: each face comes up with probability 1/6. (3) As is well-known, quantum mechanics is incompatible with determinism. However, quantum probabilities differ in an essential way from the probabilities introduced previously: it has been shown from the work of John Bell that quantum probabilities are intrinsic and cannot be given an ignorance interpretation based on a hypothetical deeper level of description. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transition probabilities of Ce I obtained from Boltzmann analysis of visible and near-infrared emission spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitz, D. E.; Curry, J. J.; Buuck, M.; DeMann, A.; Mitchell, N.; Shull, W.

2018-02-01

We report radiative transition probabilities for 5029 emission lines of neutral cerium within the wavelength range 417-1110 nm. Transition probabilities for only 4% of these lines have been previously measured. These results are obtained from a Boltzmann analysis of two high resolution Fourier transform emission spectra used in previous studies of cerium, obtained from the digital archives of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak. The set of transition probabilities used for the Boltzmann analysis are those published by Lawler et al (2010 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 43 085701). Comparisons of branching ratios and transition probabilities for lines common to the two spectra provide important self-consistency checks and test for the presence of self-absorption effects. Estimated 1σ uncertainties for our transition probability results range from 10% to 18%.

An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

2017-10-01

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development and Testing of a Multiple Frequency Continuous Wave Radar for Target Detection and Classification

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

1 2’ VIH " 1 ’ 󈧏) (34) where is the modified Bessel function of zero order. Here is the conditional variance and is the conditional probability...10, the probability of detection is the area under the signal-plus-noise curve above the detection threshold co M vF (V 2+ A2)]10 ( vAPd= fnp~ju,( vIH

Material Logistic Support of the Hospital Ships

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

Codeine Sulfate Tablets 6505-00-132-6904 Isoniazid Tablets 6505-00-165-6545 Cephalexin Capsules 6505-00-165-6575 Rifampin Capsules 6505-00-400-2054...35 4. CONSUMPTION RATE FOR MEDICAL CONSUMABLE ITEM FOR SPECIFIC CONDITION UNDER SCENARIO A 38 5. CONTRIBUTION FACTOR FOR BISACODYL TABLETS FOR SCENARIO...probability that patient condition 249 will require Bisacodyl. If the probability was twenty percent, then the amount of Bisacodyl needed would be two tablets

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Analysis of a novel double-barreled anion channel from rat liver rough endoplasmic reticulum.

PubMed Central

Morier, N; Sauvé, R

1994-01-01

The presence of anionic channels in stripped rough endoplasmic reticulum membranes isolated from rat hepatocytes was investigated by fusing microsomes from these membranes to a planar lipid bilayer. Several types of anion-selective channels were observed including a voltage-gated Cl- channel, the activity of which appeared in bursts characterized by transitions among three distinct conductance levels of 0 pS (0 level), 160 pS (O1 level), and 320 pS (O2 level), respectively, in 450 mM (cis) 50 mM (trans) KCl conditions. A chi 2 analysis on current records where interburst silent periods were omitted showed that the relative probability of current levels 0 (baseline), O1, and O2 followed a binomial statistic. However, measurements of the conditional probabilities W(level 0 at tau/level O2 at 0) and W(level O2 at tau/level 0 at 0) provided clear evidence of direct transitions between the current levels 0 and O2 without any detectable transitions to the intermediate level O1. It was concluded on the basis of these results that the observed channel was controlled by at least two distinct gating processes, namely 1) a voltage-dependent activation mechanism in which the entire system behaves as two independent monomeric channels of 160 pS with each channel characterized by a simple Open-Closed kinetic, and 2) a slow voltage-dependent process that accounts for both the appearance of silent periods between bursts of channel activity and the transitions between the current levels 0 and O2. Finally, an analysis of the relative probability for the system to be in levels 0, O1, and O2 showed that our results are more compatible with a model in which all the states resulting from the superposition of the two independent monomeric channels have access at different rates to a common inactivated state than with a model where a simple Open-Closed main gate either occludes or exposes simultaneously two independent 160-pS monomers. Images FIGURE 2 FIGURE 6 PMID:7524709

Probability Analysis of the Wave-Slamming Pressure Values of the Horizontal Deck with Elastic Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Weiguang; Liu, Ming; Fan, Tianhui; Wang, Pengtao

2018-06-01

This paper presents the probability distribution of the slamming pressure from an experimental study of regular wave slamming on an elastically supported horizontal deck. The time series of the slamming pressure during the wave impact were first obtained through statistical analyses on experimental data. The exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak and distribution parameters were analyzed, and the results show that the exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak accords with the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the range and relationships of the distribution parameters were studied. The sum of the location parameter D and the scale parameter L was approximately equal to 1.0, and the exceeding probability was more than 36.79% when the random peak was equal to the sample average during the wave impact. The variation of the distribution parameters and slamming pressure under different model conditions were comprehensively presented, and the parameter values of the Weibull distribution of wave-slamming pressure peaks were different due to different test models. The parameter values were found to decrease due to the increased stiffness of the elastic support. The damage criterion of the structure model caused by the wave impact was initially discussed, and the structure model was destroyed when the average slamming time was greater than a certain value during the duration of the wave impact. The conclusions of the experimental study were then described.

Abort Trigger False Positive and False Negative Analysis Methodology for Threshold-Based Abort Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melcher, Kevin J.; Cruz, Jose A.; Johnson Stephen B.; Lo, Yunnhon

2015-01-01

This paper describes a quantitative methodology for bounding the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) probabilities associated with a human-rated launch vehicle abort trigger (AT) that includes sensor data qualification (SDQ). In this context, an AT is a hardware and software mechanism designed to detect the existence of a specific abort condition. Also, SDQ is an algorithmic approach used to identify sensor data suspected of being corrupt so that suspect data does not adversely affect an AT's detection capability. The FP and FN methodologies presented here were developed to support estimation of the probabilities of loss of crew and loss of mission for the Space Launch System (SLS) which is being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The paper provides a brief overview of system health management as being an extension of control theory; and describes how ATs and the calculation of FP and FN probabilities relate to this theory. The discussion leads to a detailed presentation of the FP and FN methodology and an example showing how the FP and FN calculations are performed. This detailed presentation includes a methodology for calculating the change in FP and FN probabilities that result from including SDQ in the AT architecture. To avoid proprietary and sensitive data issues, the example incorporates a mixture of open literature and fictitious reliability data. Results presented in the paper demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in providing quantitative estimates that bound the probability of a FP or FN abort determination.

Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): implications for improving Bayesian reasoning

PubMed Central

Tubau, Elisabet; Aguilar-Lleyda, David; Johnson, Eric D.

2015-01-01

The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a two-step decision problem involving counterintuitive conditional probabilities. The first choice is made among three equally probable options, whereas the second choice takes place after the elimination of one of the non-selected options which does not hide the prize. Differing from most Bayesian problems, statistical information in the MHD has to be inferred, either by learning outcome probabilities or by reasoning from the presented sequence of events. This often leads to suboptimal decisions and erroneous probability judgments. Specifically, decision makers commonly develop a wrong intuition that final probabilities are equally distributed, together with a preference for their first choice. Several studies have shown that repeated practice enhances sensitivity to the different reward probabilities, but does not facilitate correct Bayesian reasoning. However, modest improvements in probability judgments have been observed after guided explanations. To explain these dissociations, the present review focuses on two types of causes producing the observed biases: Emotional-based choice biases and cognitive limitations in understanding probabilistic information. Among the latter, we identify a crucial cause for the universal difficulty in overcoming the equiprobability illusion: Incomplete representation of prior and conditional probabilities. We conclude that repeated practice and/or high incentives can be effective for overcoming choice biases, but promoting an adequate partitioning of possibilities seems to be necessary for overcoming cognitive illusions and improving Bayesian reasoning. PMID:25873906

Probability analysis of the relation of salinity to freshwater discharge in the St. Sebastian River, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wicklein, S.M.; Gain, W.S.

1999-01-01

The St. Sebastian River lies in the southern part of the Indian River basin on the east coast of Florida. Increases in freshwater discharge due to urbanization and changes in land use have reduced salinity in the St. Sebastian River and, consequently, salinity in the Indian River, affecting the commercial fishing industry. Wind, water temperature, tidal flux, freshwater discharge, and downstream salinity all affect salinity in the St. Sebastian River estuary, but freshwater discharge is the only one of these hydrologic factors which might be affected by water-management practices. A probability analysis of salinity conditions in the St. Sebastian River estuary, taking into account the effects of freshwater discharge over a period from May 1992 to March 1996, was used to determine the likelihood (probability) that salinities, as represented by daily mean specific- conductance values, will fall below a given threshold. The effects of freshwater discharge on salinities were evaluated with a simple volumetric model fitted to time series of measured specific conductance, by using nonlinear optimization techniques. Specific-conductance values for two depths at monitored sites represent stratified flow which results from differences in salt concentration between freshwater and saltwater. Layering of freshwater and saltwater is assumed, and the model is applied independently to each layer with the assumption that the water within the layer is well mixed. The model of specific conductance as a function of discharge (a salinity response model) was combined with a model of residual variation to produce a total probability model. Flow distributions and model residuals were integrated to produce a salinity distribution and determine differences in salinity probabilities as a result of changes in water-management practices. Two possible management alternatives were analyzed: stormwater detention (reducing the peak rate of discharge but not reducing the overall flow volume) and stormwater retention (reducing peak discharges without later release). Detention of freshwater discharges increased the probability of specific- conductance values falling below a given limit (20,000 microsiemens per centimeter) for all sites but one. The retention of freshwater input to the system decreased the likelihood of falling below a selected limit of specific conductance at all sites. For limits of specific conductance (1,000 microsiemens per centimeter or 20,000 microsiemens per centimeter, depending on the site), the predicted days of occurrence below a limit decreased ranging from 17 to 68 percent of the predicted days of occurrence for unregulated flow. The primary finding to be drawn from the discharge-salinity analysis is that an empirical-response model alone does not provide adequate information to assess the response of the system to changes in flow regime. Whether a given level of discharge can produce a given response on a given day is not as important as the probability of that response on a given day and over a period of many days. A deterministic model of the St. Sebastian River estuary based only on discharge would predict that retention of discharge peaks should increase the average salinity conditions in the St. Sebastian River estuary. The probabilistic model produces a very different response indicating that salinity can decrease by a power of three as discharges increase, and that random factors can predominate and control salinity until discharges increase sufficiently to flush the entire system of saltwater.

New Concepts in the Evaluation of Biodegradation/Persistence of Chemical Substances Using a Microbial Inoculum

PubMed Central

Thouand, Gérald; Durand, Marie-José; Maul, Armand; Gancet, Christian; Blok, Han

2011-01-01

The European REACH Regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization of CHemical substances) implies, among other things, the evaluation of the biodegradability of chemical substances produced by industry. A large set of test methods is available including detailed information on the appropriate conditions for testing. However, the inoculum used for these tests constitutes a “black box.” If biodegradation is achievable from the growth of a small group of specific microbial species with the substance as the only carbon source, the result of the test depends largely on the cell density of this group at “time zero.” If these species are relatively rare in an inoculum that is normally used, the likelihood of inoculating a test with sufficient specific cells becomes a matter of probability. Normally this probability increases with total cell density and with the diversity of species in the inoculum. Furthermore the history of the inoculum, e.g., a possible pre-exposure to the test substance or similar substances will have a significant influence on the probability. A high probability can be expected for substances that are widely used and regularly released into the environment, whereas a low probability can be expected for new xenobiotic substances that have not yet been released into the environment. Be that as it may, once the inoculum sample contains sufficient specific degraders, the performance of the biodegradation will follow a typical S shaped growth curve which depends on the specific growth rate under laboratory conditions, the so called F/M ratio (ratio between food and biomass) and the more or less toxic recalcitrant, but possible, metabolites. Normally regulators require the evaluation of the growth curve using a simple approach such as half-time. Unfortunately probability and biodegradation half-time are very often confused. As the half-time values reflect laboratory conditions which are quite different from environmental conditions (after a substance is released), these values should not be used to quantify and predict environmental behavior. The probability value could be of much greater benefit for predictions under realistic conditions. The main issue in the evaluation of probability is that the result is not based on a single inoculum from an environmental sample, but on a variety of samples. These samples can be representative of regional or local areas, climate regions, water types, and history, e.g., pristine or polluted. The above concept has provided us with a new approach, namely “Probabio.” With this approach, persistence is not only regarded as a simple intrinsic property of a substance, but also as the capability of various environmental samples to degrade a substance under realistic exposure conditions and F/M ratio. PMID:21863143

Disulfide Bond Formation and Activation of Escherichia coli β-Galactosidase under Oxidizing Conditions

PubMed Central

Seras-Franzoso, Joaquin; Affentranger, Roman; Ferrer-Navarro, Mario; Daura, Xavier; Villaverde, Antonio

2012-01-01

Escherichia coli β-galactosidase is probably the most widely used reporter enzyme in molecular biology, cell biology, and biotechnology because of the easy detection of its activity. Its large size and tetrameric structure make this bacterial protein an interesting model for crystallographic studies and atomic mapping. In the present study, we investigate a version of Escherichia coli β-galactosidase produced under oxidizing conditions, in the cytoplasm of an Origami strain. Our data prove the activation of this microbial enzyme under oxidizing conditions and clearly show the occurrence of a disulfide bond in the β-galactosidase structure. Additionally, the formation of this disulfide bond is supported by the analysis of a homology model of the protein that indicates that two cysteines located in the vicinity of the catalytic center are sufficiently close for disulfide bond formation. PMID:22286993

An operational system of fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Miguel M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2017-04-01

A methodology is presented to assess fire danger based on the probability of exceedance of prescribed thresholds of daily released energy. The procedure is developed and tested over Mediterranean Europe, defined by latitude circles of 35 and 45°N and meridians of 10°W and 27.5°E, for the period 2010-2016. The procedure involves estimating the so-called static and daily probabilities of exceedance. For a given point, the static probability is estimated by the ratio of the number of daily fire occurrences releasing energy above a given threshold to the total number of occurrences inside a cell centred at the point. The daily probability of exceedance which takes into account meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is in turn estimated based on a Generalized Pareto distribution with static probability and FWI as covariates of the scale parameter. The rationale of the procedure is that small fires, assessed by the static probability, have a weak dependence on weather, whereas the larger fires strongly depend on concurrent meteorological conditions. It is shown that observed frequencies of exceedance over the study area for the period 2010-2016 match with the estimated values of probability based on the developed models for static and daily probabilities of exceedance. Some (small) variability is however found between different years suggesting that refinements can be made in future works by using a larger sample to further increase the robustness of the method. The developed methodology presents the advantage of evaluating fire danger with the same criteria for all the study area, making it a good parameter to harmonize fire danger forecasts and forest management studies. Research was performed within the framework of EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF). Part of methods developed and results obtained are on the basis of the platform supported by The Navigator Company that is currently providing information about fire meteorological danger for Portugal for a wide range of users.

The transition probability and the probability for the left-most particle's position of the q-totally asymmetric zero range process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korhonen, Marko; Lee, Eunghyun

2014-01-15

We treat the N-particle zero range process whose jumping rates satisfy a certain condition. This condition is required to use the Bethe ansatz and the resulting model is the q-boson model by Sasamoto and Wadati [“Exact results for one-dimensional totally asymmetric diffusion models,” J. Phys. A 31, 6057–6071 (1998)] or the q-totally asymmetric zero range process (TAZRP) by Borodin and Corwin [“Macdonald processes,” Probab. Theory Relat. Fields (to be published)]. We find the explicit formula of the transition probability of the q-TAZRP via the Bethe ansatz. By using the transition probability we find the probability distribution of the left-most particle'smore » position at time t. To find the probability for the left-most particle's position we find a new identity corresponding to identity for the asymmetric simple exclusion process by Tracy and Widom [“Integral formulas for the asymmetric simple exclusion process,” Commun. Math. Phys. 279, 815–844 (2008)]. For the initial state that all particles occupy a single site, the probability distribution of the left-most particle's position at time t is represented by the contour integral of a determinant.« less

Inverse Problems in Complex Models and Applications to Earth Sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosch, M. E.

2015-12-01

The inference of the subsurface earth structure and properties requires the integration of different types of data, information and knowledge, by combined processes of analysis and synthesis. To support the process of integrating information, the regular concept of data inversion is evolving to expand its application to models with multiple inner components (properties, scales, structural parameters) that explain multiple data (geophysical survey data, well-logs, core data). The probabilistic inference methods provide the natural framework for the formulation of these problems, considering a posterior probability density function (PDF) that combines the information from a prior information PDF and the new sets of observations. To formulate the posterior PDF in the context of multiple datasets, the data likelihood functions are factorized assuming independence of uncertainties for data originating across different surveys. A realistic description of the earth medium requires modeling several properties and structural parameters, which relate to each other according to dependency and independency notions. Thus, conditional probabilities across model components also factorize. A common setting proceeds by structuring the model parameter space in hierarchical layers. A primary layer (e.g. lithology) conditions a secondary layer (e.g. physical medium properties), which conditions a third layer (e.g. geophysical data). In general, less structured relations within model components and data emerge from the analysis of other inverse problems. They can be described with flexibility via direct acyclic graphs, which are graphs that map dependency relations between the model components. Examples of inverse problems in complex models can be shown at various scales. At local scale, for example, the distribution of gas saturation is inferred from pre-stack seismic data and a calibrated rock-physics model. At regional scale, joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data is applied for the estimation of lithological structure of the crust, with the lithotype body regions conditioning the mass density and magnetic susceptibility fields. At planetary scale, the Earth mantle temperature and element composition is inferred from seismic travel-time and geodetic data.

Conditional survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

PubMed

Sasaki, Koji; Kantarjian, Hagop M; Jain, Preetesh; Jabbour, Elias J; Ravandi, Farhad; Konopleva, Marina; Borthakur, Gautam; Takahashi, Koichi; Pemmaraju, Naveen; Daver, Naval; Pierce, Sherry A; O'Brien, Susan M; Cortes, Jorge E

2016-01-15

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) significantly improve survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP). Conditional probability provides survival information in patients who have already survived for a specific period of time after treatment. Cumulative response and survival data from 6 consecutive frontline TKI clinical trials were analyzed. Conditional probability was calculated for failure-free survival (FFS), transformation-free survival (TFS), event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS) according to depth of response within 1 year of the initiation of TKIs, including complete cytogenetic response, major molecular response, and molecular response with a 4-log or 4.5-log reduction. A total of 483 patients with a median follow-up of 99.4 months from the initiation of treatment with TKIs were analyzed. Conditional probabilities of FFS, TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year for patients alive after 12 months of therapy ranged from 92.0% to 99.1%, 98.5% to 100%, 96.2% to 99.6%, and 96.8% to 99.7%, respectively. Conditional FFS for 1 additional year did not improve with a deeper response each year. Conditional probabilities of TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year were maintained at >95% during the period. In the era of TKIs, patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase who survived for a certain number of years maintained excellent clinical outcomes in each age group. Cancer 2016;122:238-248. © 2015 American Cancer Society. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

2018-04-01

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

Characterize Framework for Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

F. Perry; B. Youngs

2000-11-06

The purpose of this Analysis/Model (AMR) report is twofold. (1) The first is to present a conceptual framework of igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) consistent with the volcanic and tectonic history of this region and the assessment of this history by experts who participated in the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) (CRWMS M&O 1996). Conceptual models presented in the PVHA are summarized and extended in areas in which new information has been presented. Alternative conceptual models are discussed as well as their impact on probability models. The relationship between volcanic source zones defined in the PVHA andmore » structural features of the YMR are described based on discussions in the PVHA and studies presented since the PVHA. (2) The second purpose of the AMR is to present probability calculations based on PVHA outputs. Probability distributions are presented for the length and orientation of volcanic dikes within the repository footprint and for the number of eruptive centers located within the repository footprint (conditional on the dike intersecting the repository). The probability of intersection of a basaltic dike within the repository footprint was calculated in the AMR ''Characterize Framework for Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada'' (CRWMS M&O 2000g) based on the repository footprint known as the Enhanced Design Alternative [EDA II, Design B (CRWMS M&O 1999a; Wilkins and Heath 1999)]. Then, the ''Site Recommendation Design Baseline'' (CRWMS M&O 2000a) initiated a change in the repository design, which is described in the ''Site Recommendation Subsurface Layout'' (CRWMS M&O 2000b). Consequently, the probability of intersection of a basaltic dike within the repository footprint has also been calculated for the current repository footprint, which is called the 70,000 Metric Tons of Uranium (MTU) No-Backfill Layout (CRWMS M&O 2000b). The calculations for both footprints are presented in this AMR. In addition, the probability of an eruptive center(s) forming within the repository footprint is calculated and presented in this AMR for both repository footprint designs. This latter type of calculation was not included in the PVHA.« less

An Analytical Investigation of the Heat Losses from a U.S. Navy K-Type Airship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hillendahl, Wesley H.; George, Ralph E.

1946-01-01

The heat losses from the envelope surface of a U.S. Navy K-type airship are evaluated to determine if the use of heat is a feasible means of preventing ice and snow accumulations on lighter-than-air craft during flight and when moored uncovered. Consideration is given to heat losses in clear air (no liquid water present in the atmosphere) and in probable conditions of icing and snow. The results of the analysis indicate that the amount of heat required in flight to raise the surface temperature of the entire envelope to the extent considered adequate for ice protection, based on experience with tests of heavier-than-air craft, is very large. Existing types of heating equipment which could be used to supply this quantity of heat would probably be too bulky and heavy to provide a practical flight installation. The heat requirements to provide protection for the nose and stern regions in assumed mild to moderate icing conditions appear to be within the range of the capacity of current types of heating equipment suitable for flight use. The amount of heat necessary to prevent snow accumulations on the upper surface of the airship envelope when moored uncovered under all conditions appear to be excessive for the heating equipment presently available for flight use, but could possibly be achieved with auxiliary ground heating equipment.

Ecological understanding for fishery management: Condition and growth of anchovy late larvae during different seasons in the Northwestern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costalago, D.; Tecchio, S.; Palomera, I.; Álvarez-Calleja, I.; Ospina-Álvarez, A.; Raicevich, S.

2011-07-01

The fishery of the European anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus in the Mediterranean needs several ecological approaches to be properly managed. As such, several surveys were carried out to study the ecology of larvae and juveniles of this species, which reproduces during the warmest period of the year (May through September) in the Gulf of Lions. In particular, we studied the late larvae (15 mm total length until metamorphosis), especially as other authors have focused on larvae below that size. Unexpectedly, we also collected anchovy late larvae during the December 2007 survey, whose range in size corresponded to a later spawning period than previously reported. Differences in the nutritional condition of these larvae were assessed by comparing indices of lipid composition and estimating growth rates from otolith measurements to provide information on the probability of survival between the two groups. The analysis of fatty acids, used as tracers of trophic relationships, indicates that these larvae fed mainly on zooplankton. Nutritional conditions of summer and late autumn larvae were very similar. In contrast, growth rates were higher for August larvae, probably due to the different temperatures in the two seasons. Our results are especially relevant in an ecological context where the increasing mean water temperatures in the Western Mediterranean could favor the extension of the anchovy spawning period up to late-Autumn months.

An iterative ensemble quasi-linear data assimilation approach for integrated reservoir monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. Y.; Kitanidis, P. K.

2013-12-01

Reservoir forecasting and management are increasingly relying on an integrated reservoir monitoring approach, which involves data assimilation to calibrate the complex process of multi-phase flow and transport in the porous medium. The numbers of unknowns and measurements arising in such joint inversion problems are usually very large. The ensemble Kalman filter and other ensemble-based techniques are popular because they circumvent the computational barriers of computing Jacobian matrices and covariance matrices explicitly and allow nonlinear error propagation. These algorithms are very useful but their performance is not well understood and it is not clear how many realizations are needed for satisfactory results. In this presentation we introduce an iterative ensemble quasi-linear data assimilation approach for integrated reservoir monitoring. It is intended for problems for which the posterior or conditional probability density function is not too different from a Gaussian, despite nonlinearity in the state transition and observation equations. The algorithm generates realizations that have the potential to adequately represent the conditional probability density function (pdf). Theoretical analysis sheds light on the conditions under which this algorithm should work well and explains why some applications require very few realizations while others require many. This algorithm is compared with the classical ensemble Kalman filter (Evensen, 2003) and with Gu and Oliver's (2007) iterative ensemble Kalman filter on a synthetic problem of monitoring a reservoir using wellbore pressure and flux data.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

PubMed

Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

PubMed Central

Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions. PMID:29414978

Diagnostic accuracy of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblot (IB) for the detection of antibodies against Neospora caninum in milk from dairy cows.

PubMed

Chatziprodromidou, I P; Apostolou, T

2018-04-01

The aim of the study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblot (IB) for detecting antibodies of Neospora caninum in dairy cows, in the absence of a gold standard. The study complies with STRADAS-paratuberculosis guidelines for reporting the accuracy of the test. We tried to apply Bayesian models that do not require conditional independence of the tests under evaluation, but as convergence problems appeared, we used Bayesian methodology, that does not assume conditional dependence of the tests. Informative prior probability distributions were constructed, based on scientific inputs regarding sensitivity and specificity of the IB test and the prevalence of disease in the studied populations. IB sensitivity and specificity were estimated to be 98.8% and 91.3%, respectively, while the respective estimates for ELISA were 60% and 96.7%. A sensitivity analysis, where modified prior probability distributions concerning IB diagnostic accuracy applied, showed a limited effect in posterior assessments. We concluded that ELISA can be used to screen the bulk milk and secondly, IB can be used whenever needed.

A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

PubMed Central

Nowak, Michael D.; Smith, Andrew B.; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J.

2013-01-01

Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates. PMID:23755303

A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

2010-01-01

The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

Source apportionment of PM10 and PM2.5 in major urban Greek agglomerations using a hybrid source-receptor modeling process.

PubMed

Argyropoulos, G; Samara, C; Diapouli, E; Eleftheriadis, K; Papaoikonomou, K; Kungolos, A

2017-12-01

A hybrid source-receptor modeling process was assembled, to apportion and infer source locations of PM 10 and PM 2.5 in three heavily-impacted urban areas of Greece, during the warm period of 2011, and the cold period of 2012. The assembled process involved application of an advanced computational procedure, the so-called Robotic Chemical Mass Balance (RCMB) model. Source locations were inferred using two well-established probability functions: (a) the Conditional Probability Function (CPF), to correlate the output of RCMB with local wind directional data, and (b) the Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF), to correlate the output of RCMB with 72h air-mass back-trajectories, arriving at the receptor sites, during sampling. Regarding CPF, a higher-level conditional probability function was defined as well, from the common locus of CPF sectors derived for neighboring receptor sites. With respect to PSCF, a non-parametric bootstrapping method was applied to discriminate the statistically significant values. RCMB modeling showed that resuspended dust is actually one of the main barriers for attaining the European Union (EU) limit values in Mediterranean urban agglomerations, where the drier climate favors build-up. The shift in the energy mix of Greece (caused by the economic recession) was also evidenced, since biomass burning was found to contribute more significantly to the sampling sites belonging to the coldest climatic zone, particularly during the cold period. The CPF analysis showed that short-range transport of anthropogenic emissions from urban traffic to urban background sites was very likely to have occurred, within all the examined urban agglomerations. The PSCF analysis confirmed that long-range transport of primary and/or secondary aerosols may indeed be possible, even from distances over 1000km away from study areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of goals and priorities in patients with a chronic condition: a secondary quantitative analysis of determinants across 11 countries.

PubMed

Vermunt, Neeltje P C A; Westert, Gert P; Olde Rikkert, Marcel G M; Faber, Marjan J

2018-03-01

To assess the impact of patient characteristics, patient-professional engagement, communication and context on the probability that healthcare professionals will discuss goals or priorities with older patients. Secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the 2014 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey of Older Adults. 11 western countries. Community-dwelling adults, aged 55 or older. Assessment of goals and priorities. The final sample size consisted of 17,222 respondents, 54% of whom reported an assessment of their goals and priorities (AGP) by healthcare professionals. In logistic regression model 1, which was used to analyse the entire population, the determinants found to have moderate to large effects on the likelihood of AGP were information exchange on stress, diet or exercise, or both. Country (living in Sweden) and continuity of care (no regular professional or organisation) had moderate to large negative effects on the likelihood of AGP. In model 2, which focussed on respondents who experienced continuity of care, country and information exchange on stress and lifestyle were the main determinants of AGP, with comparable odds ratios to model 1. Furthermore, a professional asking questions also increased the likelihood of AGP. Continuity of care and information exchange is associated with a higher probability of AGP, while people living in Sweden are less likely to experience these assessments. Further study is required to determine whether increasing information exchange and professionals asking more questions may improve goal setting with older patients. Key points   A patient goal-oriented approach can be beneficial for older patients with chronic conditions or multimorbidity; however, discussing goals with these patients is not a common practice. The likelihood of discussing goals varies by country, occurring most commonly in the USA, and least often in Sweden. Country-level differences in continuity of care and questions asked by a regularly visited professional affect the goal discussion probability. Patient characteristics, including age, have less impact than expected on the likelihood of sharing goals.

The probability of reinforcement per trial affects posttrial responding and subsequent extinction but not within-trial responding.

PubMed

Harris, Justin A; Kwok, Dorothy W S

2018-01-01

During magazine approach conditioning, rats do not discriminate between a conditional stimulus (CS) that is consistently reinforced with food and a CS that is occasionally (partially) reinforced, as long as the CSs have the same overall reinforcement rate per second. This implies that rats are indifferent to the probability of reinforcement per trial. However, in the same rats, the per-trial reinforcement rate will affect subsequent extinction-responding extinguishes more rapidly for a CS that was consistently reinforced than for a partially reinforced CS. Here, we trained rats with consistently and partially reinforced CSs that were matched for overall reinforcement rate per second. We measured conditioned responding both during and immediately after the CSs. Differences in the per-trial probability of reinforcement did not affect the acquisition of responding during the CS but did affect subsequent extinction of that responding, and also affected the post-CS response rates during conditioning. Indeed, CSs with the same probability of reinforcement per trial evoked the same amount of post-CS responding even when they differed in overall reinforcement rate and thus evoked different amounts of responding during the CS. We conclude that reinforcement rate per second controls rats' acquisition of responding during the CS, but at the same time, rats also learn specifically about the probability of reinforcement per trial. The latter learning affects the rats' expectation of reinforcement as an outcome of the trial, which influences their ability to detect retrospectively that an opportunity for reinforcement was missed, and, in turn, drives extinction. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Towards a truly mobile auditory brain-computer interface: exploring the P300 to take away.

PubMed

De Vos, Maarten; Gandras, Katharina; Debener, Stefan

2014-01-01

In a previous study we presented a low-cost, small, and wireless 14-channel EEG system suitable for field recordings (Debener et al., 2012, psychophysiology). In the present follow-up study we investigated whether a single-trial P300 response can be reliably measured with this system, while subjects freely walk outdoors. Twenty healthy participants performed a three-class auditory oddball task, which included rare target and non-target distractor stimuli presented with equal probabilities of 16%. Data were recorded in a seated (control condition) and in a walking condition, both of which were realized outdoors. A significantly larger P300 event-related potential amplitude was evident for targets compared to distractors (p<.001), but no significant interaction with recording condition emerged. P300 single-trial analysis was performed with regularized stepwise linear discriminant analysis and revealed above chance-level classification accuracies for most participants (19 out of 20 for the seated, 16 out of 20 for the walking condition), with mean classification accuracies of 71% (seated) and 64% (walking). Moreover, the resulting information transfer rates for the seated and walking conditions were comparable to a recently published laboratory auditory brain-computer interface (BCI) study. This leads us to conclude that a truly mobile auditory BCI system is feasible. © 2013.

Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-01-01

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fram, Miranda S.; Belitz, Kenneth

2011-01-01

We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 μg/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 μg/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 μg/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).