Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiser, Emily L.; Lanctot, Richard B.; Brown, Stephen C.; Gates, H. River; Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Bêty, Joël; Boldenow, Megan L.; English, Willow B.; Franks, Samantha E.; Koloski, Laura; Kwon, Eunbi; Lamarre, Jean-Francois; Lank, David B.; Liebezeit, Joseph R.; McKinnon, Laura; Nol, Erica; Rausch, Jennie; Saalfeld, Sarah T.; Senner, Nathan R.; Ward, David H.; Woodard, Paul F.; Sandercock, Brett K.

2018-01-01

Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factors is a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicit Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6 species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects of environmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in the spatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus true survival. Our spatially explicit analysis produced estimates of true survival rates that were substantially higher than previously published estimates of apparent survival for most species, ranging from S = 0.72 to 0.98 across 5 species. However, survival was lower for the arcticolasubspecies of Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola; S = 0.54), our only study taxon that migrates through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. Like other species that use that flyway, arcticola Dunlin could be experiencing unsustainably low survival rates as a result of loss of migratory stopover habitat. Survival rates of our study species were not affected by timing of snowmelt or summer temperature, and only 2 species showed minor variation among study sites. Furthermore, although previous reproductive success, predator abundance, and the availability of alternative prey each affected survival of one species, no factors broadly affected survival across species. Overall, our findings of few effects of environmental or ecological variables suggest that annual survival rates of adult shorebirds are generally robust to conditions at Arctic breeding sites. Instead, conditions at migratory stopovers or overwintering sites might be driving adult survival rates and should be the focus of future studies.

Emigration of Natural and Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead Smolts from the Imnaha River, Oregon, October 20, 1999 to June 15, 2000 : 2000 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cleary, Peter J.

2002-12-01

This report details the smolt performance of natural and hatchery chinook salmon and steelhead from the Imnaha River to the Snake River and Columbia River dams during migration year 2000. Flow conditions in the Imnaha River and Snake River were appreciably lower during May and June in 2000, compared to historic levels at gauging stations, but flow conditions in the Imnaha and Snake River were above average during April. Overall, water conditions for the entire Columbia River were characterized by the Fish Passage Center as below normal levels. Spill occurred continuously at Lower Granite Dam (LGR), Little Goose Dam (LGO),more » and Lower Monumental Dam (LMO) from April 5, April 10, and April 4, respectively, to June 20, and encompassed the periods of migration of Imnaha River juvenile chinook salmon and steelhead, with a few exceptions. Outflow in the tailraces of LGR, LGO, and LMO decreased in May and June while temperatures increased. Chinook salmon and steelhead were captured using rotary screw traps at river kilometer (rkm) 74 and 7 during the fall from October 20 to November 24, 1999, and during the spring period from February 26 to June 15, 2000, at rkm 7. Spring trapping information was reported weekly to the Fish Passage Center's Smolt Monitoring Program. A portion of these fish were tagged weekly with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and were detected migrating past interrogation sites at Snake River and Columbia River dams. Survival of PIT tagged fish was estimated with the Survival Using Proportional Hazards model (SURPH model). Estimated survival of fall tagged natural chinook (with {+-} 95% confidence intervals in parenthesis) from the upper Imnaha (rkm 74) to LGR was 29.6% ({+-} 2.8 ). Natural chinook salmon tagged in the fall in the lower Imnaha River at rkm 7, which over wintered in the Snake River, had an estimated survival of 36.8% ({+-} 2.9%) to LGR. Spring tagged natural chinook salmon from the lower site had an estimated survival of 84.8% ({+-} 2.6%) to LGR. The season wide survival of spring tagged natural chinook salmon smolts from release in the Imnaha River to McNary Dam (MCN) was 67.9% ({+-} 6.3%). Post release survival of hatchery chinook salmon smolts, from release at the Imnaha River acclimation facility to the lower Imnaha River trap, was estimated at 94.7% ({+-} 4.7%). Hatchery chinook salmon, PIT tagged and released at the lower Imnaha River trap, had an estimated survival of 75.0% ({+-} 4.2%) to LGR. Estimated survival of hatchery chinook salmon smolts from the Imnaha River to McNary Dam (MCN) was 54.1% ({+-} 9.7%). Natural steelhead smolts had an estimated survival of 84.4% ({+-} 2.7%) to LGR and a survival estimate of 49.9% ({+-}12.2%) from the lower Imnaha River trap to MCN. The estimated survival of hatchery steelhead smolts to LGR was 85.8 ({+-} 2.4) and the survival from release to MCN was 40.2% ({+-}12.5%).« less

Methodology to Estimate the Longitudinal Average Attributable Fraction of Guideline-recommended Medications for Death in Older Adults With Multiple Chronic Conditions

PubMed Central

Zhan, Yilei; Cohen, Andrew B.; Tinetti, Mary E.; Trentalange, Mark; McAvay, Gail

2016-01-01

Background: Persons with multiple chronic conditions receive multiple guideline-recommended medications to improve outcomes such as mortality. Our objective was to estimate the longitudinal average attributable fraction for 3-year survival of medications for cardiovascular conditions in persons with multiple chronic conditions and to determine whether heterogeneity occurred by age. Methods: Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey participants (N = 8,578) with two or more chronic conditions, enrolled from 2005 to 2009 with follow-up through 2011, were analyzed. We calculated the longitudinal extension of the average attributable fraction for oral medications (beta blockers, renin–angiotensin system blockers, and thiazide diuretics) indicated for cardiovascular conditions (atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and hypertension), on survival adjusted for 18 participant characteristics. Models stratified by age (≤80 and >80 years) were analyzed to determine heterogeneity of both cardiovascular conditions and medications. Results: Heart failure had the greatest average attributable fraction (39%) for mortality. The fractional contributions of beta blockers, renin–angiotensin system blockers, and thiazides to improve survival were 10.4%, 9.3%, and 7.2% respectively. In age-stratified models, of these medications thiazides had a significant contribution to survival only for those aged 80 years or younger. The effects of the remaining medications were similar in both age strata. Conclusions: Most cardiovascular medications were attributed independently to survival. The two cardiovascular conditions contributing independently to death were heart failure and atrial fibrillation. The medication effects were similar by age except for thiazides that had a significant contribution to survival in persons younger than 80 years. PMID:26748093

Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

PubMed

Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

2017-03-01

Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Prognosis and Conditional Disease-Free Survival Among Patients With Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Kurta, Michelle L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Moysich, Kirsten B.; McDonough, Kathleen; Bertolet, Marnie; Weissfeld, Joel L.; Catov, Janet M.; Modugno, Francesmary; Bunker, Clareann H.; Ness, Roberta B.; Diergaarde, Brenda

2014-01-01

Purpose Traditional disease-free survival (DFS) does not reflect changes in prognosis over time. Conditional DFS accounts for elapsed time since achieving remission and may provide more relevant prognostic information for patients and clinicians. This study aimed to estimate conditional DFS among patients with ovarian cancer and to evaluate the impact of patient characteristics. Patients and Methods Patients were recruited as part of the Hormones and Ovarian Cancer Prediction case-control study and were included in the current study if they had achieved remission after a diagnosis of cancer of the ovary, fallopian tube, or peritoneum (N = 404). Demographic and lifestyle information was collected at enrollment; disease, treatment, and outcome information was abstracted from medical records. DFS was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Conditional DFS estimates were computed using cumulative DFS estimates. Results Median DFS was 2.54 years (range, 0.03-9.96 years) and 3-year DFS was 48.2%. The probability of surviving an additional 3 years without recurrence, conditioned on having already survived 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after remission, was 63.8%, 80.5%, 90.4%, 97.0%, and 97.7%, respectively. Initial differences in 3-year DFS at time of remission between age, stage, histology, and grade groups decreased over time. Conclusion DFS estimates for patients with ovarian cancer improved dramatically over time, in particular among those with poorer initial prognoses. Conditional DFS is a more relevant measure of prognosis for patients with ovarian cancer who have already achieved a period of remission, and time elapsed since remission should be taken into account when making follow-up care decisions. PMID:25403208

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2008.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faulkner, James R.; Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.

2009-06-23

In 2008, the National Marine Fisheries Service completed the sixteenth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. We PIT tagged and released a total of 18,565 hatchery steelhead O. mykiss, 15,991 wild steelhead, and 9,714 wild yearling Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha at Lower Granite Dam in the Snake River. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from themore » hydropower system and at sites within the hydropower system in both the Snake and Columbia Rivers. These included 122,061 yearling Chinook salmon tagged at Lower Granite Dam for evaluation of latent mortality related to passage through Snake River dams. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, Ice Harbor, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the single-release model). Primary research objectives in 2008 were to: (1) estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead, (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions, and (3) evaluate the survival estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2008 for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Additional details on the methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here. Survival and detection probabilities were estimated precisely for most of the 2008 yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead migrations. Hatchery and wild fish were combined in some of the analyses. For yearling Chinook salmon, overall percentages for combined release groups used in survival analyses in the Snake River were 80% hatchery-reared and 20% wild. For steelhead, the overall percentages were 65% hatchery-reared and 35% wild. Estimated survival from the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam to the tailrace of Little Goose Dam averaged 0.939 for yearling Chinook salmon and 0.935 for steelhead.« less

Covariate analysis of bivariate survival data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, L.E.

1992-01-01

The methods developed are used to analyze the effects of covariates on bivariate survival data when censoring and ties are present. The proposed method provides models for bivariate survival data that include differential covariate effects and censored observations. The proposed models are based on an extension of the univariate Buckley-James estimators which replace censored data points by their expected values, conditional on the censoring time and the covariates. For the bivariate situation, it is necessary to determine the expectation of the failure times for one component conditional on the failure or censoring time of the other component. Two different methodsmore » have been developed to estimate these expectations. In the semiparametric approach these expectations are determined from a modification of Burke's estimate of the bivariate empirical survival function. In the parametric approach censored data points are also replaced by their conditional expected values where the expected values are determined from a specified parametric distribution. The model estimation will be based on the revised data set, comprised of uncensored components and expected values for the censored components. The variance-covariance matrix for the estimated covariate parameters has also been derived for both the semiparametric and parametric methods. Data from the Demographic and Health Survey was analyzed by these methods. The two outcome variables are post-partum amenorrhea and breastfeeding; education and parity were used as the covariates. Both the covariate parameter estimates and the variance-covariance estimates for the semiparametric and parametric models will be compared. In addition, a multivariate test statistic was used in the semiparametric model to examine contrasts. The significance of the statistic was determined from a bootstrap distribution of the test statistic.« less

Factors affecting winter survival of female mallards in the lower Mississippi alluvial valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, B.E.; Afton, A.D.; Cox, R.R.

2011-01-01

The lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (hereafter LMAV) provides winter habitat for approximately 40% of the Mississippi Flyway's Mallard (Anas platyrhynhcos) population; information on winter survival rates of female Mallards in the LMAV is restricted to data collected prior to implementation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. To estimate recent survival and cause-specific mortality rates in the LMAV, 174 radio-marked female Mallards were tracked for a total of 11,912 exposure days. Survival varied by time periods defined by hunting seasons, and females with lower body condition (size adjusted body mass) at time of capture had reduced probability of survival. Female survival was less and the duration of our tracking period was greater than those in previous studies of similarly marked females in the LMAV; the product-limit survival estimate (??????SE) through the entire tracking period (136 days) was 0.54 ??0.10. Cause-specific mortality rates were 0.18 ??0.04 and 0.34 ??0.12 for hunting and other sources of mortality, respectively; the estimated mortality rate from other sources (including those from avian, mammalian, or unknown sources) was higher than mortality from non-hunting sources reported in previous studies of Mallards in the LMAV. Models that incorporate winter survival estimates as a factor in Mallard population growth rates should be adjusted for these reduced winter survival estimates.

Iteroparity in the variable environment of the salamander Ambystoma tigrinum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Church, D.R.; Bailey, L.L.; Wilbur, H.M.; Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.

2007-01-01

Simultaneous estimation of survival, reproduction, and movement is essential to understanding how species maximize lifetime reproduction in environments that vary across space and time. We conducted a four-year, capture–recapture study of three populations of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum) and used multistate mark–recapture statistical methods to estimate the manner in which movement, survival, and breeding probabilities vary under different environmental conditions across years and among populations and habitats. We inferred how individuals may mitigate risks of mortality and reproductive failure by deferring breeding or by moving among populations. Movement probabilities among populations were extremely low despite high spatiotemporal variation in reproductive success and survival, suggesting possible costs to movements among breeding ponds. Breeding probabilities varied between wet and dry years and according to whether or not breeding was attempted in the previous year. Estimates of survival in the nonbreeding, forest habitat varied among populations but were consistent across time. Survival in breeding ponds was generally high in years with average or high precipitation, except for males in an especially ephemeral pond. A drought year incurred severe survival costs in all ponds to animals that attempted breeding. Female salamanders appear to defer these episodic survival costs of breeding by choosing not to breed in years when the risk of adult mortality is high. Using stochastic simulations of survival and breeding under historical climate conditions, we found that an interaction between breeding probabilities and mortality limits the probability of multiple breeding attempts differently between the sexes and among populations.

Survival curve estimation with dependent left truncated data using Cox's model.

PubMed

Mackenzie, Todd

2012-10-19

The Kaplan-Meier and closely related Lynden-Bell estimators are used to provide nonparametric estimation of the distribution of a left-truncated random variable. These estimators assume that the left-truncation variable is independent of the time-to-event. This paper proposes a semiparametric method for estimating the marginal distribution of the time-to-event that does not require independence. It models the conditional distribution of the time-to-event given the truncation variable using Cox's model for left truncated data, and uses inverse probability weighting. We report the results of simulations and illustrate the method using a survival study.

Lack of active follow-up of cancer patients in Chennai, India: implications for population-based survival estimates

PubMed Central

Rama, Ranganathan; Shanta, Viswanathan

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective To measure the bias in absolute cancer survival estimates in the absence of active follow-up of cancer patients in developing countries. Methods Included in the study were all incident cases of the 10 most common cancers and corresponding subtypes plus all tobacco-related cancers not ranked among the top 10 that were registered in the population-based cancer registry in Chennai, India, during 1990–1999 and followed through 2001. Registered incident cases were first matched with those in the all-cause mortality database from the vital statistics division of the Corporation of Chennai. Unmatched incident cancer cases were then actively followed up to determine their survival status. Absolute survival was estimated by using an actuarial method and applying different assumptions regarding the survival status (alive/dead) of cases under passive and active follow-up. Findings Before active follow-up, matches between cases ranged from 20% to 66%, depending on the site of the primary tumour. Active follow-up of unmatched incident cases revealed that 15% to 43% had died by the end of the follow-up period, while the survival status of 4% to 38% remained unknown. Before active follow-up of cancer patients, 5-year absolute survival was estimated to be between 22% and 47% higher, than when conventional actuarial assumption methods were applied to cases that were lost to follow-up. The smallest survival estimates were obtained when cases lost to follow-up were excluded from the analysis. Conclusion Under the conditions that prevail in India and other developing countries, active follow-up of cancer patients yields the most reliable estimates of cancer survival rates. Passive case follow-up alone or applying standard methods to estimate survival is likely to result in an upward bias. PMID:18670662

Survival analysis for the missing censoring indicator model using kernel density estimation techniques

PubMed Central

Subramanian, Sundarraman

2008-01-01

This article concerns asymptotic theory for a new estimator of a survival function in the missing censoring indicator model of random censorship. Specifically, the large sample results for an inverse probability-of-non-missingness weighted estimator of the cumulative hazard function, so far not available, are derived, including an almost sure representation with rate for a remainder term, and uniform strong consistency with rate of convergence. The estimator is based on a kernel estimate for the conditional probability of non-missingness of the censoring indicator. Expressions for its bias and variance, in turn leading to an expression for the mean squared error as a function of the bandwidth, are also obtained. The corresponding estimator of the survival function, whose weak convergence is derived, is asymptotically efficient. A numerical study, comparing the performances of the proposed and two other currently existing efficient estimators, is presented. PMID:18953423

Survival analysis for the missing censoring indicator model using kernel density estimation techniques.

PubMed

Subramanian, Sundarraman

2006-01-01

This article concerns asymptotic theory for a new estimator of a survival function in the missing censoring indicator model of random censorship. Specifically, the large sample results for an inverse probability-of-non-missingness weighted estimator of the cumulative hazard function, so far not available, are derived, including an almost sure representation with rate for a remainder term, and uniform strong consistency with rate of convergence. The estimator is based on a kernel estimate for the conditional probability of non-missingness of the censoring indicator. Expressions for its bias and variance, in turn leading to an expression for the mean squared error as a function of the bandwidth, are also obtained. The corresponding estimator of the survival function, whose weak convergence is derived, is asymptotically efficient. A numerical study, comparing the performances of the proposed and two other currently existing efficient estimators, is presented.

Effects of life-history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile.

PubMed

Thompson, Denise M; Ligon, Day B; Patton, Jason C; Papeş, Monica

2017-04-01

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life-history traits essential for species' persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species' potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species' survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species' predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg-incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species' range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species' ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species' distributions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Long-term survival and conditional survival of cancer patients in Japan using population-based cancer registry data

PubMed Central

Ito, Yuri; Miyashiro, Isao; Ito, Hidemi; Hosono, Satoyo; Chihara, Dai; Nakata-Yamada, Kayo; Nakayama, Masashi; Matsuzaka, Masashi; Hattori, Masakazu; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Oze, Isao; Tanaka, Rina; Nomura, Etsuko; Nishino, Yoshikazu; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Ioka, Akiko; Tsukuma, Hideaki; Nakayama, Tomio

2014-01-01

Although we usually report 5-year cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data, nowadays many cancer patients survive longer and need to be followed-up for more than 5 years. Long-term cancer survival figures are scarce in Japan. Here we report 10-year cancer survival and conditional survival using an established statistical approach. We received data on 1 387 489 cancer cases from six prefectural population-based cancer registries in Japan, diagnosed between 1993 and 2009 and followed-up for at least 5 years. We estimated the 10-year relative survival of patients who were followed-up between 2002 and 2006 using period analysis. Using this 10-year survival, we also calculated the conditional 5-year survival for cancer survivors who lived for some years after diagnosis. We reported 10-year survival and conditional survival of 23 types of cancer for 15–99-year-old patients and four types of cancer for children (0–14 years old) and adolescent and young adults (15–29 years old) patients by sex. Variation in 10-year cancer survival by site was wide, from 5% for pancreatic cancer to 95% for female thyroid cancer. Approximately 70–80% of children and adolescent and young adult cancer patients survived for more than 10 years. Conditional 5-year survival for most cancer sites increased according to years, whereas those for liver cancer and multiple myeloma did not increase. We reported 10-year cancer survival and conditional survival using population-based cancer registries in Japan. It is important for patients and clinicians to report these relevant figures using population-based data. PMID:25183551

Survival of female northern pintails wintering in southwestern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, R.R.; Afton, A.D.; Pace, R. M.

1998-01-01

The North American breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) has reached previously unprecedented low numbers 4 times since 1983. Because pintails show high fidelity to wintering areas, regional survival estimates and identification of factors influencing survival are needed to guide management of wintering pintails. We used raidiotelemetry to estimate survival rates of female pintails wintering in southwestern Lousiaina. We tested for variation in survival and hunting mortality rates in realtiaon to age (immature or adult), winter (1990-91, 1991-92, 1992-93), time period (prehunting season, first hunting season, time between split hunting seasons, second hunting season, posthunting season), body condition (body mass when released, adjusted for body size), and region (southwestern Louisiana or elsewhere on the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast or Mississippi Alluvial Valley).

Conditional Survival in Anal Carcinoma Using the National Population-Based Survey of Epidemiology and End Results Database (1988-2012).

PubMed

Kim, Ellen; Kim, Jong S; Choi, Mehee; Thomas, Charles R

2016-04-01

Conditional survival can provide valuable information for both patients and healthcare providers about the changing prognosis in surviving patients over time. This study estimated conditional survival for patients with anal cancer in the United States through analysis of a national population-based cancer registry. Log-rank test identified significant covariates of cause-specific survival (defined as time from diagnosis until death from anal cancer). Significant covariates were considered in the multivariable regression of cause-specific survival using Cox proportional hazards models. Covariates included cancer stage and demographic variables. Patients in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results regions diagnosed with anal squamous cell carcinoma as their first and only cancer diagnosis from 1988 to 2012 were selected from this database, and 5145 patients were included in the retrospective cohort study. Five-year conditional survival stratified by each variable in the final Cox models was measured : The final multivariable models of overall and cause-specific survivals included stage, grade, sex, age, race, and relationship status. Over the first 6 years after diagnosis, conditional survival of distant stage increased from 37% to 89%, whereas regional stage increased from 65% to 93% and localized stage increased from 84% to 96%. The other variables had increasing prognosis as well, but the subgroups increased at a more similar rate over time. The data source used does not include information on chemotherapy treatment, patient comorbidities, or socioeconomic status. Conditional survival showed improvement over time. Patients with advanced stage had the greatest improvement in conditional survival. This is the first study to provide specific conditional survival probabilities for patients with anal cancer.

Recruitment in a Colorado population of big brown bats: Breeding probabilities, litter size, and first-year survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Reynolds, C.A.; Bowen, R.A.

2010-01-01

We used markrecapture estimation techniques and radiography to test hypotheses about 3 important aspects of recruitment in big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado: adult breeding probabilities, litter size, and 1st-year survival of young. We marked 2,968 females with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags at multiple sites during 2001-2005 and based our assessments on direct recaptures (breeding probabilities) and passive detection with automated PIT tag readers (1st-year survival). We interpreted our data in relation to hypotheses regarding demographic influences of bat age, roost, and effects of years with unusual environmental conditions: extreme drought (2002) and arrival of a West Nile virus epizootic (2003). Conditional breeding probabilities at 6 roosts sampled in 2002-2005 were estimated as 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.530.73) in 1-year-old females, but were consistently high (95% CI = 0.940.96) and did not vary by roost, year, or prior year breeding status in older adults. Mean litter size was 1.11 (95% CI = 1.051.17), based on examination of 112 pregnant females by radiography. Litter size was not higher in older or larger females and was similar to results of other studies in western North America despite wide variation in latitude. First-year survival was estimated as 0.67 (95% CI = 0.610.73) for weaned females at 5 maternity roosts over 5 consecutive years, was lower than adult survival (0.79; 95% CI = 0.770.81), and varied by roost. Based on model selection criteria, strong evidence exists for complex roost and year effects on 1st-year survival. First-year survival was lowest in bats born during the drought year. Juvenile females that did not return to roosts as 1-year-olds had lower body condition indices in late summer of their natal year than those known to survive. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

COMPLIANCE STUDIES: WHAT ABOUT THE FISH?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodley, Christa M.; Fischer, Eric S.; Wagner, Katie A.

2013-08-21

ABSTRACT It is understood that operational and structural conditions at hydroelectric facilities along with environmental conditions of the migration corridors affect the passage conditions for fish. Hydropower fish survival assessments at the individual- and population-level have progressed over the past decade with development of turbine simulation software and improvements in telemetry systems, in particular, micro-transmitters, cabled and autonomous receivers, and advanced statistical designs that provide precise estimates of passage routes and dam-passage survival. However, these approaches often ignore fish condition as a variable in passage and survival analyses. To account for fish condition effects on survival results, compliance statistical modelsmore » often require increased numbers of tagged fish. For example, prior to and during migration, fish encounter numerous stressors (e.g., disease, predation, contact with structures, decompression events), all of which can cause physical and physiological stress, altering the probability of survival after passage through a dam or a series of dams. In addition, the effects of surgical transmitter implantation process or the transmitter itself may cause physiological stress, alter behavior, and/or decrease survival. Careful physiological evaluations can augment survival model assumptions, resultant data, and predictive scenarios. To exemplify this, surgeons concurrently noted fish condition and surgical implantation during a multi-dam compliance study in 2011. The analyses indicted that surgeon observations on fish condition and surgical outcomes were related to 24 h holding mortalities and fish that never detected after release. Short reach and long reach survival were related to surgical outcomes and fish condition, respectively.« less

Hard choices in assessing survival past dams — a comparison of single- and paired-release strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Stich, Daniel S.; Sigourney, Douglas B.

2017-01-01

Mark–recapture models are widely used to estimate survival of salmon smolts migrating past dams. Paired releases have been used to improve estimate accuracy by removing components of mortality not attributable to the dam. This method is accompanied by reduced precision because (i) sample size is reduced relative to a single, large release; and (ii) variance calculations inflate error. We modeled an idealized system with a single dam to assess trade-offs between accuracy and precision and compared methods using root mean squared error (RMSE). Simulations were run under predefined conditions (dam mortality, background mortality, detection probability, and sample size) to determine scenarios when the paired release was preferable to a single release. We demonstrate that a paired-release design provides a theoretical advantage over a single-release design only at large sample sizes and high probabilities of detection. At release numbers typical of many survival studies, paired release can result in overestimation of dam survival. Failures to meet model assumptions of a paired release may result in further overestimation of dam-related survival. Under most conditions, a single-release strategy was preferable.

Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

2006-01-01

Using a stochastic model, we estimated that, on average, breeding females produced 0.57 young females/nesting season. We combined this estimate of productivity with our annual estimates of adult survival and an assumed population growth rate of 1.0, then solved for an estimate of first-year survival (0.40). Under these conditions the predicted stable age distribution of breeding females (i.e., the nesting population) was 15.1% 1-year-old, 4.1% 2-year-old first-time breeders, and 80.8% 2-year-old and older, experienced breeders. We subjected this stochastic model to perturbation analyses to examine the relative effects of demographic parameters on k. The relative effects of productivity and adult survival on the population growth rate were 0.26 and 0.72, respectively. Thus, compared to productivity, proportionally equivalent changes in annual survival would have 2.8 times the effect on k. However, when we examined annual variation in predicted population size using standardized regression coefficients, productivity explained twice as much variation as annual survival. Thus, management actions focused on changes in survival or productivity have the ability to influence population size; however, substantially larger changes in productivity are required to influence population trends.

Recent cancer survival in Germany: an analysis of common and less common cancers.

PubMed

Jansen, Lina; Castro, Felipe A; Gondos, Adam; Krilaviciute, Agne; Barnes, Benjamin; Eberle, Andrea; Emrich, Katharina; Hentschel, Stefan; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Brenner, Hermann

2015-06-01

The monitoring of cancer survival by population-based cancer registries is a prerequisite to evaluate the current quality of cancer care. Our study provides 1-, 5- and 10-year relative survival as well as 5-year relative survival conditional on 1-year survival estimates and recent survival trends for Germany using data from 11 population-based cancer registries, covering around one-third of the German population. Period analysis was used to estimate relative survival for 24 common and 11 less common cancer sites for the period 2007-2010. The German and the United States survival estimates were compared using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 13 database. Trends in cancer survival in Germany between 2002-2004 and 2008-2010 were described. Five-year relative survival increased in Germany from 2002-2004 to 2008-2010 for most cancer sites. Among the 24 most common cancers, largest improvements were seen for multiple myeloma (8.0% units), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (6.2% units), prostate cancer (5.2% units) and colorectal cancer (4.6% units). In 2007-2010, the survival disadvantage in Germany compared to the United States was largest for cancers of the mouth/pharynx (-11.0% units), thyroid (-6.8% units) and prostate (-7.5% units). Although survival estimates were much lower for elderly patients in both countries, differences in age patterns were observed for some cancer sites. The reported improvements in cancer survival might reflect advances in the quality of cancer care on the population level as well as increased use of screening in Germany. The survival differences across countries and the survival disadvantage in the elderly require further investigation. © 2014 UICC.

Survival of adult Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) may be linked to marine conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.

2014-01-01

Large variations in the summering population size of Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) have occurred in recent decades in Alaska. Little information exists about annual or seasonal survival rates of adult Red-throated Loons. This study used tracking data from satellite transmitters implanted into 33 Red-throated Loons captured on breeding areas in Alaska to estimate annual survival with the sampling effort split between two study periods: 2000–2002 and 2008–2010. Mortality was inferred from transmitted sensor data that indicated body temperature of the Red-throated Loon and voltage of the transmitter's battery. Two definitive mortalities occurred, resulting in an annual survival estimate of 0.920 (SE = 0.054). The fates of two additional Red-throated Loons were ambiguous and, when treated as mortalities, the annual survival estimate was 0.838 (SE = 0.074). All four putative mortalities occurred during the non-breeding season in the early study period. Oceanic conditions, indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, appeared to differ between the study periods with higher Pacific Decadal Oscillation values associated with the early study period. Given that high values for Pacific Decadal Oscillation were also associated with the large decline of Red-throated Loons observed in Alaska during 1977–1993, this study suggests that survival of adult Red-throated Loons may vary in relation to the state of the marine ecosystem and thus contribute to long-term variation in population trends.

Supplemental materials for the analysis of capture-recapture data for polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, Canada, 1984-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, Ian

2007-01-01

Regehr and others (2007, Survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to earlier sea ice breakup: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 71, no. 8) evaluated survival in relation to climatic conditions and estimated population size for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada. Here, we provide supplemental materials for the analyses in Regehr and others (2007). We demonstrate how tag-return data from harvested polar bears were used to adjust estimates of total survival for human-caused mortality. We describe the sex and age composition of the capture and harvest samples and provide results for goodness-of-fit tests applied to capture-recapture models. We also describe the capture-recapture model selection procedure and the structure of the most supported model, which was used to estimate survival and population size.

Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monticelli, David; Ramos, Jaime A.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.

2008-01-01

Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture–recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9%). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high ‘young’ survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our data show that estimating survival of young individuals may be crucial to elucidating the demographic tactics of seabirds.

Survival of Parents and Siblings of Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Perls, Thomas; Kohler, Iliana V.; Andersen, Stacy; Schoenhofen, Emily; Pennington, JaeMi; Young, Robert; Terry, Dellara; Elo, Irma T.

2011-01-01

Background Given previous evidence of familial predisposition for longevity, we hypothesized that siblings and parents of supercentenarians (age ≥ 110 years) were predisposed to survival to very old age and that, relative to their birth cohorts, their relative survival probabilities (RSPs) are even higher than what has been observed for the siblings of centenarians. Methods Mean age at death conditional upon survival to ages 20 and 50 and survival probabilities from ages 20 and 50 to higher ages were determined for 50 male and 56 female siblings and 54 parents of 29 supercentenarians. These estimates were contrasted with comparable estimates based on birth cohort-specific mortality experience for the United States and Sweden. Results Conditional on survival to age 20 years, mean age at death of supercentenarians’ siblings was ~81 years for men and women. Compared with respective Swedish and U.S. birth cohorts, these estimates were 17%–20% (12–14 years) higher for the brothers and 11%–14% (8–10 years) higher for the sisters. Sisters had a 2.9 times greater probability and brothers had a 4.3 times greater probability of survival from age 20 to age 90. Mothers of supercentenarians had a 5.8 times greater probability of surviving from age 50 to age 90. Fathers also experienced an increased survival probability from age 50 to age 90 of 2.7, but it failed to attain statistical significance. Conclusions The RSPs of siblings and mothers of supercentenarians revealed a substantial survival advantage and were most pronounced at the oldest ages. The RSP to age 90 for siblings of supercentenarians was approximately the same as that reported for siblings of centenarians. It is possible that greater RSPs are observed for reaching even higher ages such as 100 years, but a larger sample of supercentenarians and their siblings and parents is needed to investigate this possibility. PMID:17895443

Survival of parents and siblings of supercentenarians.

PubMed

Perls, Thomas; Kohler, Iliana V; Andersen, Stacy; Schoenhofen, Emily; Pennington, JaeMi; Young, Robert; Terry, Dellara; Elo, Irma T

2007-09-01

Given previous evidence of familial predisposition for longevity, we hypothesized that siblings and parents of supercentenarians (age >or= 110 years) were predisposed to survival to very old age and that, relative to their birth cohorts, their relative survival probabilities (RSPs) are even higher than what has been observed for the siblings of centenarians. Mean age at death conditional upon survival to ages 20 and 50 and survival probabilities from ages 20 and 50 to higher ages were determined for 50 male and 56 female siblings and 54 parents of 29 supercentenarians. These estimates were contrasted with comparable estimates based on birth cohort-specific mortality experience for the United States and Sweden. Conditional on survival to age 20 years, mean age at death of supercentenarians' siblings was approximately 81 years for men and women. Compared with respective Swedish and U.S. birth cohorts, these estimates were 17%-20% (12-14 years) higher for the brothers and 11%-14% (8-10 years) higher for the sisters. Sisters had a 2.9 times greater probability and brothers had a 4.3 times greater probability of survival from age 20 to age 90. Mothers of supercentenarians had a 5.8 times greater probability of surviving from age 50 to age 90. Fathers also experienced an increased survival probability from age 50 to age 90 of 2.7, but it failed to attain statistical significance. The RSPs of siblings and mothers of supercentenarians revealed a substantial survival advantage and were most pronounced at the oldest ages. The RSP to age 90 for siblings of supercentenarians was approximately the same as that reported for siblings of centenarians. It is possible that greater RSPs are observed for reaching even higher ages such as 100 years, but a larger sample of supercentenarians and their siblings and parents is needed to investigate this possibility.

Factors influencing nest survival and productivity of Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rizzolo, Daniel; Schmutz, Joel A.; McCloskey, Sarah E.; Fondell, Thomas F.

2014-01-01

Red-throated Loon (Gavia stellata) numbers in Alaska have fluctuated dramatically over the past 3 decades; however, the demographic processes contributing to these population dynamics are poorly understood. To examine spatial and temporal variation in productivity, we estimated breeding parameters at 5 sites in Alaska: at Cape Espenberg and the Copper River Delta we estimated nest survival, and at 3 sites within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta we estimated nest survival and productivity. Nest survival varied broadly among sites and years; annual estimates (lower, upper 95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.09 (0.03, 0.29) at Cape Espenberg in 2001 to 0.93 (0.76, 0.99) at the Copper River Delta in 2002. Annual variation among sites was not concordant, suggesting that site-scale factors had a strong influence on nest survival. Models of nest survival indicated that visits to monitor nests had a negative effect on nest daily survival probability, which if not accounted for biased nest survival strongly downward. The sensitivity of breeding Red-throated Loons to nest monitoring suggests other sources of disturbance that cause incubating birds to flush from their nests may also reduce nest survival. Nest daily survival probability at the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta was negatively associated with an annual index of fox occurrence. Survival through the incubation and chick-rearing periods on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta ranged from 0.09 (0.001, 0.493) to 0.50 (0.04, 0.77). Daily survival probability during the chick-rearing period was lower for chicks that had a sibling in 2 of 3 years, consistent with the hypothesis that food availability was limited. Estimates of annual productivity on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta ranged from 0.17 to 1.0 chicks per pair. Productivity was not sufficient to maintain population stability in 2 of 3 years, indicating that nest depredation by foxes and poor foraging conditions during chick rearing can have important effects on productivity.

A fully nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data

PubMed Central

Gorfine, Malka; Bordo, Nadia; Hsu, Li

2017-01-01

Summary Consider a popular case–control family study where individuals with a disease under study (case probands) and individuals who do not have the disease (control probands) are randomly sampled from a well-defined population. Possibly right-censored age at onset and disease status are observed for both probands and their relatives. For example, case probands are men diagnosed with prostate cancer, control probands are men free of prostate cancer, and the prostate cancer history of the fathers of the probands is also collected. Inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior lead to correlation among the outcomes within a family. In this article, a novel nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function is provided. The estimator is defined in the presence of intra-cluster dependence, and is based on consistent smoothed kernel estimators of conditional survival functions. By simulation, it is shown that the proposed estimator performs very well in terms of bias. The utility of the estimator is illustrated by the analysis of case–control family data of early onset prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first article that provides a fully nonparametric marginal survival estimator based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data. PMID:27436674

Natal location influences movement and survival of a spatially structured population of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.

2007-01-01

Despite the accepted importance of the need to better understand how natal location affects movement decisions and survival of animals, robust estimates of movement and survival in relation to the natal location are lacking. Our study focuses on movement and survival related to the natal location of snail kites in Florida and shows that kites, in addition to exhibiting a high level of site tenacity to breeding regions, also exhibit particular attraction to their natal region. More specifically, we found that estimates of movement from post-dispersal regions were greater toward natal regions than toward non-natal regions (differences were significant for three of four regions). We also found that estimates of natal philopatry were greater than estimates of philopatry to non-natal regions (differences were statistically significant for two of four regions). A previous study indicated an effect of natal region on juvenile survival; in this study, we show an effect of natal region on adult survival. Estimates of adult survival varied among kites that were hatched in different regions. Adults experienced mortality rates characteristic of the region occupied at the time when survival was measured, but because there is a greater probability that kites will return to their natal region than to any other regions, their survival was ultimately influenced by their natal region. In most years, kites hatched in southern regions had greater survival probabilities than did kites hatched in northern regions. However, during a multiregional drought, one of the northern regions served as a refuge from drought, and during this perturbation, survival was greater for birds hatched in the north. Our study shows that natal location may be important in influencing the ecological dynamics of kites but also highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in habitat conditions of spatially structured systems when attempting to evaluate the conservation value of habitats.

Conditional survival analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with radiofrequency ablation.

PubMed

Facciorusso, Antonio; Del Prete, Valentina; Antonino, Matteo; Neve, Viviana; Amoruso, Annabianca; Crucinio, Nicola; Di Leo, Alfredo; Barone, Michele

2015-10-01

Survival estimates are commonly reported as survival from the first observation, but future survival probability changes based on the survival time already accumulated after therapy, otherwise known as conditional survival (CS). The aim of the study was to describe CS according to different prognostic variables in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Data on 125 very early/early HCC patients treated with RFA between 1999 and 2007 were analyzed. Actuarial survival estimates were computed by means of Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test. The 5-year CS was calculated with stratification by several predictors for patients who had already survived up to 5 years from diagnosis. Median overall survival (OS) was 72 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 58-86). Age, Child-Pugh (CP), α-fetoprotein (AFP), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score and type of recurrence (early vs late) were significant predictors of OS. The 5-year CS rates of the entire study cohort assessed at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years from the treatment were 49%, 48%, 30% and 34%, respectively. Subgroup analysis confirmed age and CP as significant predictors of CS at all time points, while the CS of subgroups stratified by AFP and CLIP did not differ significantly from the 3rd year after RFA onward, as more advanced patients had probably escaped early recurrence. CS analysis showed that the impact of different variables influencing OS is not linear over time after RFA. Information derived from the study can improve the current management of HCC patients. © 2014 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

A case report of suspected malignant hyperthermia where patient survived the episode.

PubMed

Iqbal, Asif; Badoo, Shoaib; Naqeeb, Ruqsana

2017-01-01

Malignant hyperthermia is rare inherited disorder in our part of the world; there are only few cases reported in literature in India who were suspected of having this condition. The overall incidence of malignant hyperthermia during general anesthesia is estimated to range from 1: 5000 to 1: 50,000-100,000 and mortality rate is estimated to be <5% in the presence of standard care. In India, there is no center where in vitro halothane caffeine contraction test is performed to confirm diagnosis in suspected cases. Second, dantrolene drug of choice for this condition is not freely available in market in India and is stored only in some hospitals in few major cities. Among the cases reported of suspected of malignant hyperthermia in India almost 50% have survived the condition despite nonavailability of dantrolene emphasizing role of early detection and aggressive management in these cases.

A case report of suspected malignant hyperthermia where patient survived the episode

PubMed Central

Iqbal, Asif; Badoo, Shoaib; Naqeeb, Ruqsana

2017-01-01

Malignant hyperthermia is rare inherited disorder in our part of the world; there are only few cases reported in literature in India who were suspected of having this condition. The overall incidence of malignant hyperthermia during general anesthesia is estimated to range from 1: 5000 to 1: 50,000–100,000 and mortality rate is estimated to be <5% in the presence of standard care. In India, there is no center where in vitro halothane caffeine contraction test is performed to confirm diagnosis in suspected cases. Second, dantrolene drug of choice for this condition is not freely available in market in India and is stored only in some hospitals in few major cities. Among the cases reported of suspected of malignant hyperthermia in India almost 50% have survived the condition despite nonavailability of dantrolene emphasizing role of early detection and aggressive management in these cases. PMID:28442967

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

PubMed

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Occurrence and survival condition of lung cancer with different histologies among residents in Pudong new area].

PubMed

Chen, Hanyi; Yang, Chen; Yan, Bei; Sun, Lianghong; Wu, Zheng; Li, Xiaopan; Zhang, Meiyu; Li, Xiaoli; Yang, Liming

2014-03-01

Different histologies of lung cancer vary in occurrence and prognosis. This study aims to analyze the incidence and occurrence trend of lung cancer and investigate the survival rate and its influential factors among lung cancer patients with different histologies. Permanent residents were recruited between 2002 and 2009 in Pudong New Area (former Nanhui Area and former Pudong Area), Shanghai, China. Annual percent changes were estimated by a linear regression of the logarithm on the incidence rates for eight years. Survival rates were calculated and compared by using life-table analysis and Log-rank test, respectively. The standardized incidence rates of lung cancer were 52.28 and 18.86 per 100,000 in males and females, respectively. The median survival time was 410.72 days for specific classified lung cancer. The incidence rates of adenocarcinoma ranked the highest and showed an upward tendency (P<0.05). Patients with small cell lung cancer showed the worst survival condition. The survival condition in males with squamous cell lung cancer living in former Nanhui Area was better compared with those living in former Pudong Area. Lung cancers with different histologies demonstrated different occurrence trends and survival rates. Gender, age, and living area influence the survival rates of lung cancer with different histologies.

An evaluation and comparison of conservation guidelines for an at-risk migratory songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNeil, Darin J.; Aldinger, Kyle R.; Bakermans, Marja H.; Lehman, Justin A.; Tisdale, Anna C.; Jones, John A.; Wood, Petra B.; Buehler, David A.; Smalling, Curtis G.; Siefferman, Lynn; Larkin, Jeffrey L.

2017-01-01

For at-risk wildlife species, it is important to consider conservation within the process of adaptive management. Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) are Neotropical migratory songbirds that are experiencing long-term population declines due in part to the loss of early-successional nesting habitat. Recently-developed Golden-winged Warbler habitat management guidelines are being implemented by USDA: Natural Resource Conservation Service (2014) and its partners through the Working Lands For Wildlife (WLFW) program. During 2012–2014, we studied the nesting ecology of Golden-winged Warblers in managed habitats of the eastern US that conformed to WLFW conservation practices. We evaluated five NRCS “management scenarios” with respect to nesting success and attainment of recommended nest site vegetation conditions outlined in the Golden-winged Warbler breeding habitat guidelines. Using estimates of territory density, pairing rate, nest survival, and clutch size, we also estimated fledgling productivity (number of fledglings/ha) for each management scenario. In general, Golden-winged Warbler nest survival declined as each breeding season advanced, but nest survival was similar across management scenarios. Within each management scenario, vegetation variables had little influence on nest survival. Still, percent Rubus cover and density of >2 m tall shrubs were relevant in some management scenarios. All five management scenarios rarely attained recommended levels of nest site vegetation conditions for Golden-winged, yet nest survival was high. Fledgling productivity estimates for each management scenario ranged from 2.1 to 8.6 fledglings/10 hectares. Our results indicate that targeted habitat management for Golden-winged Warblers using a variety of management techniques on private lands has the capability to yield high nest survival and fledgling productivity, and thus have the potential to contribute to the species recovery.

Genetic and environmental factors affecting perinatal and preweaning survival of D'man lambs.

PubMed

Boujenane, Ismaïl; Chikhi, Abdelkader; Lakcher, Oumaïma; Ibnelbachyr, Mustapha

2013-08-01

This study examined the viability of 4,554 D'man lambs born alive at Errachidia research station in south-eastern Morocco between 1988 and 2009. Lamb survival to 1, 10, 30 and 90 days old was 0.95, 0.93, 0.93 and 0.92, respectively. The majority of deaths (85.7%) occurred before 10 days of age. Type and period of birth both had a significant effect on lamb survival traits, whereas age of dam and sex of lamb did not. The study revealed a curvilinear relationship between lamb's birth weight and survival traits from birth to 90 days, with optimal birth weights for maximal perinatal and preweaning survival varying according to type of birth from 2.6 to 3.5 kg. Estimation of variance components, using an animal model including direct and maternal genetic effects, the permanent maternal environment as well as fixed effects, showed that direct and maternal heritability estimates for survival traits between birth and 90 days were mostly low and varied from 0.01 to 0.10; however, direct heritability for survival at 1 day from birth was estimated at 0.63. Genetic correlations between survival traits and birth weight were positive and low to moderate. It was concluded that survival traits of D'man lambs between birth and 90 days could be improved through selection, but genetic progress would be low. However, the high proportion of the residual variance to total variance reinforces the need to improve management and lambing conditions.

Bendamustine added to allogeneic conditioning improves long-term outcomes in patients with CLL.

PubMed

Khouri, I F; Sui, D; Jabbour, E J; Samuels, B I; Turturro, F; Alatrash, G; Anderlini, P; Ahmed, S; Oran, B; Ciurea, S O; Marin, D; Olson, A; Patel, K K; Popat, U R; Ledesma, C; Kadia, T M; Ferrajoli, A; Burger, J A; Jorgensen, J L; Medeiros, L J; Bassett, R L; Gulbis, A M

2017-01-01

Bendamustine has shown a favorable safety profile when included in chemotherapy regimens for several types of lymphoma, including CLL. This study investigated the long-term effect of adding bendamustine to a conditioning regimen on survival, rate of engraftment, immune recovery and GvHD after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT) in CLL patients. These outcomes were compared with the fludarabine, cyclophosphamide and rituximab (FCR) conditioning regimen. We reviewed the data for 89 CLL patients treated on three trials at our institution. Twenty-six (29%) patients received bendamustine, fludarabine and rituximab (BFR) and 63 (71%) received FCR. Patient characteristics were similar in both groups. Ten (38%) BFR-treated patients vs only two (3%) FCR-treated patients did not experience severe neutropenia (P=<0.001). The 3-year overall survival estimates for the BFR and FCR groups were 82 and 51% (P=0.03), and the 3-year PFS estimates were 63% and 27% (P=0.001), respectively. The 2-year treatment-related mortality was 8 and 23% and the incidence of grade 3 or 4 GvHD was 4% and 10%, respectively. This study is the first to report that addition of bendamustine to alloSCT conditioning for CLL patients is associated with improved survival and lower mortality, myelosuppression, and GvHD.

Evidence for skipped spawning in a potamodromous cyprinid, humpback chub (Gila cypha), with implications for demographic parameter estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearson, Kristen Nicole; Kendall, William L.; Winkelman, Dana L.; Persons, William R.

2015-01-01

Our findings reveal evidence for skipped spawning in a potamodromous cyprinid, humpback chub (HBC; Gila cypha  ). Using closed robust design mark-recapture models, we found, on average, spawning HBC transition to the skipped spawning state () with a probability of 0.45 (95% CRI (i.e. credible interval): 0.10, 0.80) and skipped spawners remain in the skipped spawning state () with a probability of 0.60 (95% CRI: 0.26, 0.83), yielding an average spawning cycle of every 2.12 years, conditional on survival. As a result, migratory skipped spawners are unavailable for detection during annual sampling events. If availability is unaccounted for, survival and detection probability estimates will be biased. Therefore, we estimated annual adult survival probability (S), while accounting for skipped spawning, and found S remained reasonably stable throughout the study period, with an average of 0.75 ((95% CRI: 0.66, 0.82), process varianceσ2 = 0.005), while skipped spawning probability was highly dynamic (σ2 = 0.306). By improving understanding of HBC spawning strategies, conservation decisions can be based on less biased estimates of survival and a more informed population model structure.

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

1999-06-01

The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

Site selection and nest survival of the Bar-Headed Goose (Anser indicus) on the Mongolian Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Batbayar, Nyambayar; Takekawa, John Y.; Natsagdorj, Tseveenmyadag; Spragens, Kyle A.; Xiao, Xiamgming

2014-01-01

Waterbirds breeding on the Mongolian Plateau in Central Asia must find suitable wetland areas for nesting in a semiarid region characterized by highly variable water conditions. The first systematic nesting study of a waterbird dependent on this region for breeding was conducted on the Bar-headed Goose (Anser indicus). The purpose of this study was to document Bar-headed Goose nesting locations, characterize nests and nesting strategies, and estimate daily nest survival (n = 235 nests) from eight areas of west-central Mongolia across three summers (2009–2011) using a modified Mayfield estimator. Bar-headed Goose daily nest survival ranged from 0.94 to 0.98, with a 3-year average nest success of 42.6% during incubation. Bar-headed Geese were found to primarily nest on isolated pond and lake islands as previously reported, but were also documented regularly, though less frequently, along rocky cliffs in several regions of west-central Mongolia. Daily nest survival was higher for cliff nests than for island nests. Information-theoretic models indicated that nest survival decreased with nest age and varied annually with changing environmental conditions. Results of this study suggest that while Bar-headed Geese primarily rely on nesting island sites these sites may be more susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance and predation events influenced by seasonal variation in environmental conditions, and that higher daily nest survival values documented for the less frequent cliff nest strategy may provide an important alternative strategy during poor island nest success years. Thus, conservation efforts for this and other waterbird species in the semiarid region should be focused on conserving nesting islands and protecting them from disturbance in areas of high livestock densities experiencing a rapidly warming climate.

Effect of previous history of cancer on survival of patients with a second cancer of the head and neck.

PubMed

Jégu, Jérémie; Belot, Aurélien; Borel, Christian; Daubisse-Marliac, Laetitia; Trétarre, Brigitte; Ganry, Olivier; Guizard, Anne-Valérie; Bara, Simona; Troussard, Xavier; Bouvier, Véronique; Woronoff, Anne-Sophie; Colonna, Marc; Velten, Michel

2015-05-01

To provide head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) survival estimates with respect to patient previous history of cancer. Data from ten French population-based cancer registries were used to establish a cohort of all male patients presenting with a HNSCC diagnosed between 1989 and 2004. Vital status was updated until December 31, 2007. The 5-year overall and net survival estimates were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier and Pohar-Perme estimators, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess the effect of cancer history adjusted for age and year of HNSCC diagnosis. Among the cases of HNSCC, 5553 were localized in the oral cavity, 3646 in the oropharynx, 3793 in the hypopharynx and 4550 in the larynx. From 11.0% to 16.8% of patients presented with a previous history of cancer according to HNSCC. Overall and net survival were closely tied to the presence, or not, of a previous cancer. For example, for carcinoma of the oral cavity, the five-year overall survival was 14.0%, 5.9% and 36.7% in case of previous lung cancer, oesophagus cancer or no cancer history, respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that previous history of cancer was a prognosis factor independent of age and year of diagnosis (p<.001). Previous history of cancer is strongly associated with survival among HNSCC patients. Survival estimates based on patients' previous history of cancer will enable clinicians to assess more precisely the prognosis of their patients with respect to this major comorbid condition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using hierarchical bayes to understand movement, health, and survival in the endangered north atlantic right whale.

PubMed

Schick, Robert S; Kraus, Scott D; Rolland, Rosalind M; Knowlton, Amy R; Hamilton, Philip K; Pettis, Heather M; Kenney, Robert D; Clark, James S

2013-01-01

Body condition is an indicator of health, and it plays a key role in many vital processes for mammalian species. While evidence of individual body condition can be obtained, these observations provide just brief glimpses into the health state of the animal. An analytical framework is needed for understanding how health of animals changes over space and time.Through knowledge of individual health we can better understand the status of populations. This is particularly important in endangered species, where the consequences of disruption of critical biological functions can push groups of animals rapidly toward extinction. Here we built a state-space model that provides estimates of movement, health, and survival. We assimilated 30+ years of photographic evidence of body condition and three additional visual health parameters in individual North Atlantic right whales, together with survey data, to infer the true health status as it changes over space and time. We also included the effect of reproductive status and entanglement status on health. At the population level, we estimated differential movement patterns in males and females. At the individual level, we estimated the likely animal locations each month. We estimated the relationship between observed and latent health status. Observations of body condition, skin condition, cyamid infestation on the blowholes, and rake marks all provided measures of the true underlying health. The resulting time series of individual health highlight both normal variations in health status and how anthropogenic stressors can affect the health and, ultimately, the survival of individuals. This modeling approach provides information for monitoring of health in right whales, as well as a framework for integrating observational data at the level of individuals up through the health status of the population. This framework can be broadly applied to a variety of systems - terrestrial and marine - where sporadic observations of individuals exist.

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

PubMed

Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

2016-01-01

Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground-nesting bird.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A; Dahlgren, David K; Orange, Jeremy P

2017-05-01

Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad-scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms' distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground-nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from -20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen-Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature-related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (<-15 °C and >35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are average and broad-scale conditions as typically measured in ecological studies. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adult survival, apparent lamb survival, and body condition of desert bighorn sheep in relation to habitat and precipitation on the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Overstreet, Matthew; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Cain, James W.

2014-01-01

The decline of desert bighorn sheep on the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge (KNWR) beginning in 2003 stimulated efforts to determine the factors limiting survival and recruitment. We 1) determined pregnancy rates, body fat, and estimated survival rates of adults and lambs; 2) investigated the relationship between precipitation, forage conditions, previous year’s reproductive success, and adult body condition; 3) assessed the relative influence of body condition of adult females, precipitation, and forage characteristics on apparent survival of lambs; and 4) determined the prevalence of disease. To assess the influence of potential limiting factors on female desert bighorn sheep on the KNWR, we modeled percent body fat of adult females as a function of previous year’s reproductive effort, age class, and forage conditions (i.e., seasonal NDVI and seasonal precipitation). In addition, we assessed the relative influence of the body condition of adult females, precipitation, and forage conditions (NDVI) on length of time a lamb was observed at heel.Adult female survival was high in both 2009 (0.90 [SE = 0.05]) and 2010 (0.96 [SE = 0.03]). Apparent lamb survival to 6 months of age was 0.23 (SE = 0.05) during 2009-2010 and 0.21 (SE = 0.05) during 2010-2011 lambing seasons. Mean body fat for adult females was 12.03% (SE = 0.479) in 2009-2010 and 11.11% (SE= 0.486) in 2010-2011 and was not significantly different between years. Pregnancy rate was 100% in 2009 and 97.5% in 2010.Models containing the previous year’s reproductive effort, spring NDVI and previous year’s reproductive effort and spring precipitation best approximated data on percent body fat in adult females in 2009-2010. In 2010-2011, the two highest-ranking models included the previous year’s reproductive effort and winter NDVI and previous year’s reproductive effort, and winter and spring NDVI. None of the models assessing the influence of maternal body fat, precipitation, or forage conditions were particularly useful for predicting apparent lamb survival.The high pregnancy rates and body fat levels in excess of 11% do not indicate that this population of desert bighorn was nutritionally stressed during our study and are thus likely not contributing to the low lamb survival estimates we observed. However, body condition data during the population decline is not available and whether this population was nutritionally limited during the initial population decline remains unknown.The prevalence of disease in the Kofa herd may be a limiting factor; however, due to a lack of disease monitoring during the population decline it is uncertain if disease contributed to the decline. Further research is needed to fully understand the complex interaction of disease in this population at the individual and population level and determine to what extent disease predisposes individuals to predation or other causes of mortality.

Sources of variation in survival of breeding female wood ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartke, Kevin M.; Grand, J.B.; Hepp, G.R.; Folk, T.H.

2006-01-01

In waterfowl, reproduction is physiologically demanding and females are exposed to varying risks of mortality at different periods of the breeding cycle. Moreover, differences among females may influence survival within breeding periods. We captured and fitted female Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) with radio-transmitters before nest initiation during two breeding seasons to estimate survival and investigate sources of variation in survival. We partitioned the breeding season into three periods (preincubation, incubation, postnesting) according to breeding status of individual females, and used information-theoretic methods to compare models in which daily survival varied among periods, between successful and failed nesting females, and with parameters describing individual heterogeneity. Our analysis suggested that daily survival was best modeled as a function of breeding period, differences between successful and failed nesting females during postnesting, and early incubation body condition of successful females during post-nesting. Model-averaged daily survival was 0.9988 (95% CL: 0.9963-0.9996) during preincubation and 1.0 during incubation. Postnesting daily survival was 1.0 for failed nesting females and 0.9948 (0.9773-0.9988) for successful females, suggesting a trade-off between current reproduction and survival. Female age, body condition at capture, nest initiation date, and brood size generally were not useful for explaining variation in survival. Only early incubation body condition was important for modeling survival of successful females during postnesting; however, weight of evidence was limited and the effect on survival was weak. Mortality was greatest for females during preincubation and for females that nested successfully. Results support the hypothesis that brood care is costly for females. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in Patients With Terminal Illness: An Evidence-Based Analysis

PubMed Central

Sehatzadeh, S

2014-01-01

Background Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) was first introduced in 1960 for people who unexpectedly experience sudden cardiac arrest. Over the years, it became routine practice in all institutions to perform CPR for all patients even though, for some patients with fatal conditions, application of CPR only prolongs the dying process through temporarily restoring cardiac function. Objectives This analysis aims to systematically review the literature to provide an accurate estimate of survival following CPR in patients with terminal health conditions. Data Sources A literature search was performed for studies published from January 1, 2004, until January 10, 2014. The search was updated monthly to March 1, 2014. Review Methods Abstracts and full text of studies that met eligibility criteria were reviewed. Reference lists were also examined for any additional relevant studies not identified through the search. Results Cancer patients have lower survival rates following CPR than patients with conditions other than cancer, and cancer patients who receive CPR in intensive care units have one-fifth the rate of survival to discharge of cancer patients who receive CPR in general wards. While the meta-analysis of studies published between 1967 and 2005 reported a lower survival to discharge for cancer patients (6.2%), more recent studies reported higher survival to discharge or to 30-day survival for these patients. Higher survival rates in more recent studies could originate with more “do not attempt resuscitation” orders for patients with end-stage cancer in recent years. Older age does not significantly decrease the rate of survival following CPR while the degree, the type, and the number of chronic health conditions; functional dependence; and multiple CPRs (particularly in advanced age) do reduce survival rates. Emergency Medical Services response time have a significant impact on survival following out-of-hospital CPR. Conclusions Survival after CPR depends on the severity of illness, type and number of health conditions, functional dependence, and multiple CPRs. PMID:26339301

Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in Patients With Terminal Illness: An Evidence-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Sehatzadeh, S

2014-01-01

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) was first introduced in 1960 for people who unexpectedly experience sudden cardiac arrest. Over the years, it became routine practice in all institutions to perform CPR for all patients even though, for some patients with fatal conditions, application of CPR only prolongs the dying process through temporarily restoring cardiac function. This analysis aims to systematically review the literature to provide an accurate estimate of survival following CPR in patients with terminal health conditions. A literature search was performed for studies published from January 1, 2004, until January 10, 2014. The search was updated monthly to March 1, 2014. Abstracts and full text of studies that met eligibility criteria were reviewed. Reference lists were also examined for any additional relevant studies not identified through the search. Cancer patients have lower survival rates following CPR than patients with conditions other than cancer, and cancer patients who receive CPR in intensive care units have one-fifth the rate of survival to discharge of cancer patients who receive CPR in general wards. While the meta-analysis of studies published between 1967 and 2005 reported a lower survival to discharge for cancer patients (6.2%), more recent studies reported higher survival to discharge or to 30-day survival for these patients. Higher survival rates in more recent studies could originate with more "do not attempt resuscitation" orders for patients with end-stage cancer in recent years. Older age does not significantly decrease the rate of survival following CPR while the degree, the type, and the number of chronic health conditions; functional dependence; and multiple CPRs (particularly in advanced age) do reduce survival rates. Emergency Medical Services response time have a significant impact on survival following out-of-hospital CPR. Survival after CPR depends on the severity of illness, type and number of health conditions, functional dependence, and multiple CPRs.

Individual quality, survival variation and patterns of phenotypic selection on body condition and timing of nesting in birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blums, P.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lindberg, M.; Mednis, A.

2005-01-01

Questions about individual variation in 'quality' and fitness are of great interest to evolutionary and population ecologists. Such variation can be investigated using either a random effects approach or an approach that relies on identifying observable traits that are themselves correlated with fitness components. We used the latter approach with data from 1,925 individual females of three species of ducks (tufted duck, Aythya fuligula; common pochard, Aythya ferina; northern shoveler, Anas clypeata) sampled on their breeding grounds at Engure Marsh, Latvia, for over 15 years. Based on associations with reproductive output, we selected two traits, one morphological (relative body condition) and one behavioral (relative time of nesting), that can be used to characterize individual females over their lifetimes. We then asked whether these traits were related to annual survival probabilities of nesting females. We hypothesized quadratic, rather than monotonic, relationships based loosely on ideas about the likely action of stabilizing selection on these two traits. Parameters of these relationships were estimated directly using ultrastructural models embedded within capture-recapture-band-recovery models. Results provided evidence that both traits were related to survival in the hypothesized manner. For all three species, females that tended to nest earlier than the norm exhibited the highest survival rates, but very early nesters experienced reduced survival and late nesters showed even lower survival. For shovelers, females in average body condition showed the highest survival, with lower survival rates exhibited by both heavy and light birds. For common pochard and tufted duck, the highest survival rates were associated with birds of slightly above-average condition, with somewhat lower survival for very heavy birds and much lower survival for birds in relatively poor condition. Based on results from this study and previous work on reproduction, we conclude that nest initiation date and body condition covary with both reproductive and survival components of fitness. These associations lead to a positive covariance of these two fitness components within individuals and to the conclusion that these two traits are indeed correlates of individual quality.

A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

2017-07-28

Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

Role of survivor bias in pancreatic cancer case-control studies.

PubMed

Hu, Zhen-Huan; Connett, John E; Yuan, Jian-Min; Anderson, Kristin E

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of survivor bias on pancreatic cancer case-control studies. The authors constructed five case-loss scenarios based on the Iowa Women's Health Study cohort to reflect how case recruitment in population-based studies varies by case survival time. Risk factors for disease incidence included smoking, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, diabetes, and alcohol consumption. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by conditional logistic regression and quantitatively compared by the interactions between risk factors and 3-month survival time. Additionally, Kaplan-Meier estimates for overall survival were compared within the subset cohort of pancreatic cancer cases. BMI and waist circumference showed a significant inverse relationship with survival time. Decreasing trends in ORs for BMI and waist circumference were observed with increasing case survival time. The interaction between BMI and survival time based on a cutpoint of 3 months was significant (P < .01) as was the interaction between waist circumference and survival time (P < .01). The findings suggested that case losses could result in survivor bias causing underestimated odds ratios for both BMI and waist circumference, whereas other risk factors were not significantly affected by case losses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Mediation Analysis with Time-varying Mediators and Exposures, with Application to Survival Outcomes

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark

2017-01-01

In this paper, we study the effect of a time-varying exposure mediated by a time-varying intermediate variable. We consider general longitudinal settings, including survival outcomes. At a given time point, the exposure and mediator of interest are influenced by past covariates, mediators and exposures, and affect future covariates, mediators and exposures. Right censoring, if present, occurs in response to past history. To address the challenges in mediation analysis that are unique to these settings, we propose a formulation in terms of random interventions based on conditional distributions for the mediator. This formulation, in particular, allows for well-defined natural direct and indirect effects in the survival setting, and natural decomposition of the standard total effect. Upon establishing identifiability and the corresponding statistical estimands, we derive the efficient influence curves and establish their robustness properties. Applying Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation, we use these efficient influence curves to construct multiply robust and efficient estimators. We also present an inverse probability weighted estimator and a nested non-targeted substitution estimator for these parameters. PMID:29387520

Survival of cyanobacteria in rivers following their release in water from large headwater reservoirs.

PubMed

Williamson, Nicholas; Kobayashi, Tsuyoshi; Outhet, David; Bowling, Lee C

2018-05-01

Cyanobacterial survival following their release in water from major headwaters reservoirs was compared in five New South Wales rivers. Under low flow conditions, cyanobacterial presence disappeared rapidly with distance downstream in the Cudgegong and Hunter Rivers, whereas the other three rivers were contaminated for at least 300 km. Cyanobacterial survival is likely to be impacted by the geomorphology of each river, especially the extent of gravel riffle reaches (cells striking rocks can destroy them) and by the different turbulent flow conditions it produces within each. Flow conditions at gauging stations were used to estimate the turbulent strain rate experienced by suspended cyanobacteria. These indicate average turbulent strain rates in the Cudgegong and Hunter Rivers can be above 33 and 83 s -1 while for the Murray, Edward and Macquarie Rivers average strain rate was estimated to be less than 30 s -1 . These turbulent strain rate estimates are substantially above published thresholds of approximately 2 s -1 for impacts indicated from laboratory tests. Estimates of strain rate were correlated with changes in cyanobacterial biovolume at stations along the rivers. These measurements indicate a weak but significant negative linear relationship between average strain rate and change in cyanobacterial biomass. River management often involves releasing cold deep water with low cyanobacterial presence from these reservoirs, leading to ecological impacts from cold water pollution downstream. The pollution may be avoided if cyanobacteria die off rapidly downstream of the reservoir, allowing surface water to be released instead. However high concentrations of soluble cyanotoxins may remain even after the cyanobacterial cells have been destroyed. The geomorphology of the river (length of riffle reaches) is an important consideration for river management during cyanobacterial blooms in headwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-random temporary emigration and the robust design: Conditions for bias at the end of a time series: Section VIII

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, Catherine A.

2008-01-01

Knowing the extent and magnitude of the potential bias can help in making decisions as to what time frame provides the best estimates or the most reliable opportunity to model and test hypotheses about factors affecting survival probability. To assess bias, truncating the capture histories to shorter time frames and reanalyzing the data to compare time-specific estimates may help identify spurious effects. Running simulations that mimic the parameter values and movement conditions in the real situation can provide estimates of standardized bias that can be used to identify those annual estimates that are biased to the point where the 95% confidence intervals are inadequate in describing the uncertainty of the estimates.

Modeling the airborne survival of influenza virus in a residential setting: the impacts of home humidification.

PubMed

Myatt, Theodore A; Kaufman, Matthew H; Allen, Joseph G; MacIntosh, David L; Fabian, M Patricia; McDevitt, James J

2010-09-03

Laboratory research studies indicate that aerosolized influenza viruses survive for longer periods at low relative humidity (RH) conditions. Further analysis has shown that absolute humidity (AH) may be an improved predictor of virus survival in the environment. Maintaining airborne moisture levels that reduce survival of the virus in the air and on surfaces could be another tool for managing public health risks of influenza. A multi-zone indoor air quality model was used to evaluate the ability of portable humidifiers to control moisture content of the air and the potential related benefit of decreasing survival of influenza viruses in single-family residences. We modeled indoor AH and influenza virus concentrations during winter months (Northeast US) using the CONTAM multi-zone indoor air quality model. A two-story residential template was used under two different ventilation conditions - forced hot air and radiant heating. Humidity was evaluated on a room-specific and whole house basis. Estimates of emission rates for influenza virus were particle-size specific and derived from published studies and included emissions during both tidal breathing and coughing events. The survival of the influenza virus was determined based on the established relationship between AH and virus survival. The presence of a portable humidifier with an output of 0.16 kg water per hour in the bedroom resulted in an increase in median sleeping hours AH/RH levels of 11 to 19% compared to periods without a humidifier present. The associated percent decrease in influenza virus survival was 17.5 - 31.6%. Distribution of water vapor through a residence was estimated to yield 3 to 12% increases in AH/RH and 7.8-13.9% reductions in influenza virus survival. This modeling analysis demonstrates the potential benefit of portable residential humidifiers in reducing the survival of aerosolized influenza virus by controlling humidity indoors.

Modeling the airborne survival of influenza virus in a residential setting: the impacts of home humidification

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Laboratory research studies indicate that aerosolized influenza viruses survive for longer periods at low relative humidity (RH) conditions. Further analysis has shown that absolute humidity (AH) may be an improved predictor of virus survival in the environment. Maintaining airborne moisture levels that reduce survival of the virus in the air and on surfaces could be another tool for managing public health risks of influenza. Methods A multi-zone indoor air quality model was used to evaluate the ability of portable humidifiers to control moisture content of the air and the potential related benefit of decreasing survival of influenza viruses in single-family residences. We modeled indoor AH and influenza virus concentrations during winter months (Northeast US) using the CONTAM multi-zone indoor air quality model. A two-story residential template was used under two different ventilation conditions - forced hot air and radiant heating. Humidity was evaluated on a room-specific and whole house basis. Estimates of emission rates for influenza virus were particle-size specific and derived from published studies and included emissions during both tidal breathing and coughing events. The survival of the influenza virus was determined based on the established relationship between AH and virus survival. Results The presence of a portable humidifier with an output of 0.16 kg water per hour in the bedroom resulted in an increase in median sleeping hours AH/RH levels of 11 to 19% compared to periods without a humidifier present. The associated percent decrease in influenza virus survival was 17.5 - 31.6%. Distribution of water vapor through a residence was estimated to yield 3 to 12% increases in AH/RH and 7.8-13.9% reductions in influenza virus survival. Conclusion This modeling analysis demonstrates the potential benefit of portable residential humidifiers in reducing the survival of aerosolized influenza virus by controlling humidity indoors. PMID:20815876

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

PubMed Central

Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

2016-01-01

Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

Development of the PCAD Model to Assess Biological Significance of Acoustic Disturbance

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

We identified northern elephant seals and Atlantic bottlenose dolphins as the best species to parameterize the PCAD model. These species represent...transfer functions described above for southern elephant seals, our goals are to parameterize these models to make them applicable to other species and...northern elephant seal demographic data to estimate adult female survival, reproduction, and pup survival as a function of maternal condition. As a major

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2010-01-01

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

Survival of Salmonella adelaide and fecal coliforms in coarse sands of the swan costal plain, Western Australia.

PubMed Central

Parker, W F; Mee, B J

1982-01-01

The survival of Salmonella adelaide and fecal coliforms in two coarse sands influenced by two sources of septic tank effluent was studied. The experiments were conducted in conditions that reflected the soil environment beneath functioning septic tank systems. Significant differences in survival were found with different effluent sources. In one experiment the survival of S. adelaide was similar to that of fecal coliforms; in the other it was not. The nonuniform, multiphasic nature of survival curves was variability observed in these experiments suggests that the application of such survival data for establishing management criteria for septic tank systems--by, for example, the use of soil moisture characteristic curves to give estimates of movement in the soil--is inappropriate. PMID:7103482

Movement patterns and study area boundaries: Influences on survival estimation in capture-mark-recapture studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horton, G.E.; Letcher, B.H.

2008-01-01

The inability to account for the availability of individuals in the study area during capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies and the resultant confounding of parameter estimates can make correct interpretation of CMR model parameter estimates difficult. Although important advances based on the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model have resulted in estimators of true survival that work by unconfounding either death or recapture probability from availability for capture in the study area, these methods rely on the researcher's ability to select a method that is correctly matched to emigration patterns in the population. If incorrect assumptions regarding site fidelity (non-movement) are made, it may be difficult or impossible as well as costly to change the study design once the incorrect assumption is discovered. Subtleties in characteristics of movement (e.g. life history-dependent emigration, nomads vs territory holders) can lead to mixtures in the probability of being available for capture among members of the same population. The result of these mixtures may be only a partial unconfounding of emigration from other CMR model parameters. Biologically-based differences in individual movement can combine with constraints on study design to further complicate the problem. Because of the intricacies of movement and its interaction with other parameters in CMR models, quantification of and solutions to these problems are needed. Based on our work with stream-dwelling populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, we used a simulation approach to evaluate existing CMR models under various mixtures of movement probabilities. The Barker joint data model provided unbiased estimates of true survival under all conditions tested. The CJS and robust design models provided similarly unbiased estimates of true survival but only when emigration information could be incorporated directly into individual encounter histories. For the robust design model, Markovian emigration (future availability for capture depends on an individual's current location) was a difficult emigration pattern to detect unless survival and especially recapture probability were high. Additionally, when local movement was high relative to study area boundaries and movement became more diffuse (e.g. a random walk), local movement and permanent emigration were difficult to distinguish and had consequences for correctly interpreting the survival parameter being estimated (apparent survival vs true survival). ?? 2008 The Authors.

Composite Partial Likelihood Estimation Under Length-Biased Sampling, With Application to a Prevalent Cohort Study of Dementia

PubMed Central

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing

2013-01-01

The Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) employed a prevalent cohort design to study survival after onset of dementia, where patients with dementia were sampled and the onset time of dementia was determined retrospectively. The prevalent cohort sampling scheme favors individuals who survive longer. Thus, the observed survival times are subject to length bias. In recent years, there has been a rising interest in developing estimation procedures for prevalent cohort survival data that not only account for length bias but also actually exploit the incidence distribution of the disease to improve efficiency. This article considers semiparametric estimation of the Cox model for the time from dementia onset to death under a stationarity assumption with respect to the disease incidence. Under the stationarity condition, the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation is expected to be fully efficient yet difficult to perform for statistical practitioners, as the likelihood depends on the baseline hazard function in a complicated way. Moreover, the asymptotic properties of the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator are not well-studied. Motivated by the composite likelihood method (Besag 1974), we develop a composite partial likelihood method that retains the simplicity of the popular partial likelihood estimator and can be easily performed using standard statistical software. When applied to the CSHA data, the proposed method estimates a significant difference in survival between the vascular dementia group and the possible Alzheimer’s disease group, while the partial likelihood method for left-truncated and right-censored data yields a greater standard error and a 95% confidence interval covering 0, thus highlighting the practical value of employing a more efficient methodology. To check the assumption of stable disease for the CSHA data, we also present new graphical and numerical tests in the article. The R code used to obtain the maximum composite partial likelihood estimator for the CSHA data is available in the online Supplementary Material, posted on the journal web site. PMID:24000265

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins.

PubMed

Abadi, Fitsum; Barbraud, Christophe; Gimenez, Olivier

2017-03-01

Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Semiparametric methods to contrast gap time survival functions: Application to repeat kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E

2016-06-01

Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-identifiability of the marginal distributions and the existence of dependent censoring (for all but the first gap time). We use Cox regression to estimate the (conditional) survival distributions of each gap time (given the previous gap times). Combining fitted survival functions based on those models, along with multiple imputation applied to censored gap times, we then contrast the first and second gap times with respect to average survival and restricted mean lifetime. Large-sample properties are derived, with simulation studies carried out to evaluate finite-sample performance. We apply the proposed methods to kidney transplant data obtained from a national organ transplant registry. Mean 10-year graft survival of the primary transplant is significantly greater than that of the repeat transplant, by 3.9 months (p=0.023), a result that may lack clinical importance. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Henslow's sparrow winter-survival estimates and response to prescribed burning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, B.S.; Krementz, D.G.; Woodrey, M.S.

2006-01-01

Wintering Henslow's sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii) populations rely on lands managed with prescribed burning, but the effects of various burn regimes on their overwinter survival are unknown. We studied wintering Henslow's sparrows in coastal pine savannas at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Jackson County, Mississippi, USA, during January and February 2001 and 2002. We used the known-fate modeling procedure in program MARK to evaluate the effects of burn age (1 or 2 growing seasons elapsed), burn season (growing, dormant), and calendar year on the survival rates of 83 radiomarked Henslow's sparrows. We found strong evidence that Henslow's sparrow survival rates differed by burn age (with higher survival in recently burned sites) and by year (with lower survival rates in 2001 likely because of drought conditions). We found some evidence that survival rates also differed by bum season (with higher survival in growing-season sites), although the effects of burn season were only apparent in recently burned sites. Avian predation was the suspected major cause of mortality (causing 6 of 14 deaths) with 1 confirmed loggerhead shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) depredation. Our results indicated that recently burned savannas provide high-quality wintering habitats and suggested that managers can improve conditions for wintering Henslow's sparrows by burning a large percentage of savannas each year.

Annual survival and population estimates of Mountain Plovers in Southern Phillips County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2003-01-01

Information about the demography of declining species is especially relevant to their conservation and future recovery. Knowledge of survival rates and population size can be used to assess long-term viability and population trends, both of which are of interest to conservation biologists. We used capture–recapture techniques to study the demography of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, in 1995–2000. We used the robust design to estimate annual survival (φ), conditional capture (p and r) and recapture (c) probabilities, and the annual population size (N) in the presence of temporary emigration. The results support age-specific differences in annual survival that are a function of juvenile body mass and are correlated with the area occupied by prairie dogs. Body mass had a positive effect on juvenile survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of body mass on juvenile survival was 0.77 (95% ci = 0.25, 1.28) on a logit scale. A measure of plover habitat (the area occupied by prairie dogs) appeared to have no effect on survival; the slope coefficient for the additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on survival was –0.00004 (95% ci = –0.00003, –0.0001) on a logit scale. Estimated annual apparent survival rates were 0.46–0.49 for juveniles and 0.68 for adult plovers. Using these estimates, the life span of a Mountain Plover was 1.92 ± 0.17 years (mean ± 1 se) from time of capture as a chick. Resighting rates positively influenced capture probabilities; the slope coefficient for the additive resighting effect was –0.49 (95% ci = –0.86, –0.11) on a logit scale. The size of this adult Mountain Plover population was estimated at 95–180 adults annually. Population size closely tracked annual changes in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs, with both plovers and prairie dogs rapidly recovering from an outbreak of sylvatic plague in the mid-1990s. Given the low annual survival rates and low mean life expectancy of Mountain Plovers, we conclude that sustainable local populations are currently maintained by annual rates of productivity greater than those for other ground-nesting birds.

[Morphobiochemical adaptations of Mediterranean Littorina punctata (Gmelin, 1790) (Mollusca, Gastropoda) to survival under supralittoral conditions].

PubMed

Aliakrinskaia, I O

2014-01-01

Behavioral and morphobiochemical adaptations of Littorina punctata to dwelling under supralittoral condi- tions are analyzed. A quantitative estimation of the hemoglobin content in the radular tissues of the mollusk is given.

Survival of a proto-atmosphere through the stage of giant impacts: the mechanical aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genda, Hidenori; Abe, Yutaka

2003-07-01

When a giant impact occurs, atmosphere loss may occur due to global ground motion excited by a strong shock wave traveling in the planetary interior. Here, the relations between the ground motion and the amount of the lost atmosphere are systematically investigated through calculations of a spherically one-dimensional atmospheric motion for various initial atmospheric conditions. The fraction of the lost atmosphere to the total mass of the atmosphere is found to be controlled only by the ground velocity and, insensitive to the initial atmospheric conditions. Unlike the previous studies (Ahrens, 1990, Origin of the Earth, H.E. Newson, J.H. Jones (Eds.), pp. 211-227; Ahrens, 1993, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 21, 525-555; Chen and Ahrens, 1997, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 100, 21-26); the estimated loss fraction for the giant impact is only 20%. Significant escape occurs only when the ground velocity is close to the escape velocity. Thus, most of the atmosphere should survive the giant impact. The cause of the difference from previous estimates is discussed from energetic and dynamic points of view. Moreover, if our estimates are applied to the atmosphere of the impactor planet, a significant fraction of it is carried to the target planet. Survival of the proto-atmosphere has very important effects on the origin and evolution of the terrestrial planets' volatile budget.

Monitoring the Migrations of Wild Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon Juveniles, 2007-2008

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Achord, Stephen; Sandford, Benjamin P.; Hockersmith, Eric E.

2009-07-09

This report provides results from an ongoing project to monitor the migration behavior and survival of wild juvenile spring/summer Chinook salmon in the Snake River Basin. Data reported is from detections of PIT tagged fish during late summer 2007 through mid-2008. Fish were tagged in summer 2007 by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) in Idaho and by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) in Oregon. Our analyses include migration behavior and estimated survival of fish at instream PIT-tag monitors and arrival timing and estimated survival to Lower Granite Dam. Principal results from tagging and interrogation during 2007-2008more » are: (1) In July and August 2007, we PIT tagged and released 7,390 wild Chinook salmon parr in 12 Idaho streams or sample areas. (2) Overall observed mortality from collection, handling, tagging, and after a 24-hour holding period was 1.4%. (3) Of the 2,524 Chinook salmon parr PIT tagged and released in Valley Creek in summer 2007, 218 (8.6%) were detected at two instream PIT-tag monitoring systems in lower Valley Creek from late summer 2007 to the following spring 2008. Of these, 71.6% were detected in late summer/fall, 11.9% in winter, and 16.5% in spring. Estimated parr-to-smolt survival to Lower Granite Dam was 15.5% for the late summer/fall group, 48.0% for the winter group, and 58.5% for the spring group. Based on detections at downstream dams, the overall efficiency of VC1 (upper) or VC2 (lower) Valley Creek monitors for detecting these fish was 21.1%. Using this VC1 or VC2 efficiency, an estimated 40.8% of all summer-tagged parr survived to move out of Valley Creek, and their estimated survival from that point to Lower Granite Dam was 26.5%. Overall estimated parr-to-smolt survival for all summer-tagged parr from this stream at the dam was 12.1%. Development and improvement of instream PIT-tag monitoring systems continued throughout 2007 and 2008. (4) Testing of PIT-tag antennas in lower Big Creek during 2007-2008 showed these antennas (and anchoring method) are not adequate to withstand high spring flows in this drainage. Future plans involve removing these antennas before high spring flows. (5) At Little Goose Dam in 2008, length and/or weight were taken on 505 recaptured fish from 12 Idaho stream populations. Fish had grown an average of 40.1 mm in length and 10.6 g in weight over an average of 288 d. Their mean condition factor declined from 1.25 at release (parr) to 1.05 at recapture (smolt). (6) Mean release lengths for detected fish were significantly larger than for fish not detected the following spring and summer (P < 0.0001). (7) Fish that migrated through Lower Granite Dam in April and May were significantly larger at release than fish that migrated after May (P < 0.0001) (only 12 fish migrated after May). (8) In 2008, peak detections at Lower Granite Dam of parr tagged during summer 2007 (from the 12 stream populations in Idaho and 4 streams in Oregon) occurred during moderate flows of 87.5 kcfs on 7 May and high flows of 197.3 kcfs on 20 May. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile passage occurred on 30 April, 11 May, and 23 May, respectively. (9) In 2007-2008, estimated parr-to-smolt survival to Lower Granite Dam for Idaho and Oregon streams (combined) averaged 19.4% (range 6.2-38.4% depending on stream of origin). In Idaho streams the estimated parr-to-smolt survival averaged 21.0%. This survival was the second highest since 1993 for Idaho streams. Relative parr densities were lower in 2007 (2.4 parr/100 m2) than in all previous years since 2000. In 2008, we observed low-to-moderate flows prior to mid-May and relatively cold weather conditions throughout the spring migration season. These conditions moved half of the fish through Lower Granite Dam prior to mid-May; then high flows moved 50 to 90% of the fish through the dam in only 12 days. Clearly, complex interrelationships of several factors drive the annual migrational timing of the stocks.« less

Conditional survival estimates improve over time for patients with advanced melanoma: results from a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Xing, Yan; Chang, George J; Hu, Chung-Yuan; Askew, Robert L; Ross, Merrick I; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Lee, Jeffrey E; Mansfield, Paul F; Lucci, Anthony; Cormier, Janice N

2010-05-01

Conditional survival (CS) has emerged as a clinically relevant measure of prognosis for cancer survivors. The objective of this analysis was to provide melanoma-specific CS estimates to help clinicians promote more informed patient decision making. Patients with melanoma and at least 5 years of follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry (1988-2000). By using the methods of Kaplan and Meier, stage-specific, 5-year CS estimates were independently calculated for survivors for each year after diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate Cox regression models including baseline survivor functions were used to calculate adjusted melanoma-specific CS for different subgroups of patients further stratified by age, gender, race, marital status, anatomic tumor location, and tumor histology. Five-year CS estimates for patients with stage I disease remained constant at 97% annually, while for patients with stages II, III, and IV disease, 5-year CS estimates from time 0 (diagnosis) to 5 years improved from 72% to 86%, 51% to 87%, and 19% to 84%, respectively. Multivariate CS analysis revealed that differences in stages II through IV CS based on age, gender, and race decreased over time. Five-year melanoma-specific CS estimates improve dramatically over time for survivors with advanced stages of disease. These prognostic data are critical to patients for both treatment and nontreatment related life decisions. (c) 2010 American Cancer Society.

Field durability of the same type of long-lasting insecticidal net varies between regions in Nigeria due to differences in household behaviour and living conditions.

PubMed

Kilian, Albert; Koenker, Hannah; Obi, Emmanuel; Selby, Richmond A; Fotheringham, Megan; Lynch, Matthew

2015-03-24

With the recent publication of WHO-recommended methods to estimate net survival, comparative analyses from different areas have now become possible. With this in mind, a study was undertaken in Nigeria to compare the performance of a specific long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) product in three socio-ecologically different areas. In addition, the objective was to assess the feasibility of a retrospective study design for durability. In three states, Zamfara in the north, Nasarawa in the centre and Cross River in the south, four local government areas were selected one year after mass distribution of 100-denier polyester LLINs. From a representative sample of 300 households per site that had received campaign nets, an assessment of net survival was made based on rate of loss of nets and the physical condition of surviving nets measured by the proportionate hole index (pHI). Surveys were repeated after two and three years. Over the three-year period 98% of the targeted sample size of 3,720 households was obtained and 94% of the 5,669 campaign nets found were assessed for damage. With increasing time since distribution, recall of having received campaign nets dropped by 11-22% and only 31-87% of nets actually lost were reported. Using a recall bias adjustment, attrition rates were fairly similar in all three sites. The proportion of surviving nets in serviceable condition differed dramatically, however, resulting in an estimated median net survival of 3.0 years in Nasarawa, 4.5 years in Cross River and 4.7 years in Zamfara. Although repairs on damaged nets increased from around 10% at baseline to 21-38% after three years, the average pHI value for each of the four hole size categories did not differ between repaired and unrepaired nets. First, the differences observed in net survival are driven by living conditions and household behaviours and not the LLIN material. Second, recall bias in a retrospective durability study can be significant and while adjustments can be made, enough uncertainty remains that prospective studies on durability are preferable wherever possible. Third, repair does not seem to measurably improve net condition and focus should, therefore, be on improving preventive behaviour.

A spatial capture-recapture model to estimate fish survival and location from linear continuous monitoring arrays

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raabe, Joshua K.; Gardner, Beth; Hightower, Joseph E.

2013-01-01

We developed a spatial capture–recapture model to evaluate survival and activity centres (i.e., mean locations) of tagged individuals detected along a linear array. Our spatially explicit version of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, analyzed using a Bayesian framework, correlates movement between periods and can incorporate environmental or other covariates. We demonstrate the model using 2010 data for anadromous American shad (Alosa sapidissima) tagged with passive integrated transponders (PIT) at a weir near the mouth of a North Carolina river and passively monitored with an upstream array of PIT antennas. The river channel constrained migrations, resulting in linear, one-dimensional encounter histories that included both weir captures and antenna detections. Individual activity centres in a given time period were a function of the individual’s previous estimated location and the river conditions (i.e., gage height). Model results indicate high within-river spawning mortality (mean weekly survival = 0.80) and more extensive movements during elevated river conditions. This model is applicable for any linear array (e.g., rivers, shorelines, and corridors), opening new opportunities to study demographic parameters, movement or migration, and habitat use.

Development of a predictive model to estimate the effect of soil solarization on survival of soilborne inoculum of Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora pini

Treesearch

Fumiaki Funahashi; Jennifer L. Parke

2017-01-01

Soil solarization has been shown to be an effective tool to manage Phytophthora spp. within surface soils, but estimating the minimum time required to complete local eradication under variable weather conditions remains unknown. A mathematical model could help predict the effectiveness of solarization at different sites and soil depths....

Survival, Evasion, and Recovery Multiservice Procedures for Survival, Evasion and Recovery

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-06-01

Edible portions growing above ground that can be washed and peeled or skinned ( bananas , apples, etc.). • Smooth skinned vegetables, fruits, or above...environment. b. Leave only when (1) Dictated by the threat. (2) Are certain of your location, have a known destination, and have the ability to get there. (3...injured/uninjured condition. Adjust estimation of distance traveled against these factors to get relative accuracy when using a pace count. (4) Deliberate

Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kendall, William L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2012-01-01

Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (>1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly <1 for all 13 estimable years considered. Our results suggest that experience is an important factor determining whether or not individuals attempt to breed during harsh environmental conditions and that reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

Estimation of body-size traits by photogrammetry in large mammals to inform conservation.

PubMed

Berger, Joel

2012-10-01

Photography, including remote imagery and camera traps, has contributed substantially to conservation. However, the potential to use photography to understand demography and inform policy is limited. To have practical value, remote assessments must be reasonably accurate and widely deployable. Prior efforts to develop noninvasive methods of estimating trait size have been motivated by a desire to answer evolutionary questions, measure physiological growth, or, in the case of illegal trade, assess economics of horn sizes; but rarely have such methods been directed at conservation. Here I demonstrate a simple, noninvasive photographic technique and address how knowledge of values of individual-specific metrics bears on conservation policy. I used 10 years of data on juvenile moose (Alces alces) to examine whether body size and probability of survival are positively correlated in cold climates. I investigated whether the presence of mothers improved juvenile survival. The posited latter relation is relevant to policy because harvest of adult females has been permitted in some Canadian and American jurisdictions under the assumption that probability of survival of young is independent of maternal presence. The accuracy of estimates of head sizes made from photographs exceeded 98%. The estimates revealed that overwinter juvenile survival had no relation to the juvenile's estimated mass (p < 0.64) and was more strongly associated with maternal presence (p < 0.02) than winter snow depth (p < 0.18). These findings highlight the effects on survival of a social dynamic (the mother-young association) rather than body size and suggest a change in harvest policy will increase survival. Furthermore, photographic imaging of growth of individual juvenile muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) over 3 Arctic winters revealed annual variability in size, which supports the idea that noninvasive monitoring may allow one to detect how some environmental conditions ultimately affect body growth. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Do digestive contents confound body mass as a measure of relative condition in nestling songbirds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streby, Henry M.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Vernasco, Ben J.; Andersen, David E.

2014-01-01

Relative nestling condition, typically measured as nestling mass or as an index including nestling mass, is commonly purported to correlate with fledgling songbird survival. However, most studies directly investigating fledgling survival have found no such relationship. We weighed feces and stomach contents of nestling golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) to investigate the potential contribution of variation in digestive contents to differences in nestling mass. We estimated that the mass of a seventh-day (near fledging) nestling golden-winged warbler varies by 0.65 g (approx. 9% of mean nestling mass) depending on the contents of the nestling's digestive system at the time of weighing, and that digestive contents are dissimilar among nestlings at any moment the brood is removed from the nest for weighing. Our conservative estimate of within-individual variation in digestive contents equals 72% and 24% of the mean within-brood and population-wide range in nestling mass, respectively. Based on our results, a substantive but typically unknown amount of the variation in body mass among nestlings is confounded by differences in digestive contents. We conclude that short-term variation in digestive contents likely precludes the use of body mass, and therefore any mass-dependent index, as a measure of relative nestling condition or as a predictor of survival in golden-winged warblers and likely in many other songbirds of similar size.

Seasonal survival of adult female mottled ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moon, Jena A.; Haukos, David A.; Conway, Warren C.

2017-01-01

The mottled duck (Anas fulgivula) is a non-migratory duck dependent on coastal habitats to meet all of its life cycle requirements in the Western Gulf Coast (WGC) of Texas and Louisiana, USA. This population of mottled ducks has experienced a moderate decline during the past 2 decades. Adult survival has been identified as an important factor influencing population demography. Previous work based on band-recovery data has provided only annual estimates of survival. We assessed seasonal patterns of female mottled duck survival from 2009 to 2012 using individuals marked with satellite platform transmitter terminals (PTTs). We used temperature and movement sensors within each PTT to indicate potential mortality events. We estimated cumulative weekly survival and ranked factors influential in patterns of mortality using known-fate modeling in Program MARK. Models included 4 predictors: week; hunting and non-hunting periods; biological periods defined as breeding, brooding, molt, and pairing; and mass at time of capture. Models containing hunt periods, during and outside the mottled duck season, comprised essentially 100% of model weights where both legal and illegal harvest had a negative influence on mottled duck survival. Survival rates were low during 2009–2011 (12–38% annual rate of survival), when compared with the long-term banding average of 53% annual survival. During 2011, survival of female mottled ducks was the lowest annual rate (12%) ever documented and coincided with extreme drought. Management actions maximizing the availability of wetlands and associated upland habitats during hunting seasons and drought conditions may increase adult female mottled duck survival.

Population ecology of polar bears in Davis Strait, Canada and Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Laake, Jeffrey L.; Stirling, Ian

2013-01-01

Until recently, the sea ice habitat of polar bears was understood to be variable, but environmental variability was considered to be cyclic or random, rather than progressive. Harvested populations were believed to be at levels where density effects were considered not significant. However, because we now understand that polar bear demography can also be influenced by progressive change in the environment, and some populations have increased to greater densities than historically lower numbers, a broader suite of factors should be considered in demographic studies and management. We analyzed 35 years of capture and harvest data from the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation in Davis Strait, including data from a new study (2005–2007), to quantify its current demography. We estimated the population size in 2007 to be 2,158 ± 180 (SE), a likely increase from the 1970s. We detected variation in survival, reproductive rates, and age-structure of polar bears from geographic sub-regions. Survival and reproduction of bears in southern Davis Strait was greater than in the north and tied to a concurrent dramatic increase in breeding harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in Labrador. The most supported survival models contained geographic and temporal variables. Harp seal abundance was significantly related to polar bear survival. Our estimates of declining harvest recovery rate, and increasing total survival, suggest that the rate of harvest declined over time. Low recruitment rates, average adult survival rates, and high population density, in an environment of high prey density, but deteriorating and variable ice conditions, currently characterize the Davis Strait polar bears. Low reproductive rates may reflect negative effects of greater densities or worsening ice conditions.

Population density and climate shape early-life survival and recruitment in a long-lived pelagic seabird.

PubMed

Fay, Rémi; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Barbraud, Christophe

2015-09-01

1. Our understanding of demographic processes is mainly based on analyses of traits from the adult component of populations. Early-life demographic traits are poorly known mainly for methodological reasons. Yet, survival of juvenile and immature individuals is critical for the recruitment into the population and thus for the whole population dynamic, especially for long-lived species. This bias currently restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics of long-lived species and life-history theory. 2. The goal of this study was to estimate the early-life demographic parameters of a long-lived species with a long immature period (9-10 years), to test for sex and age effects on these parameters and to identify the environmental factors encountered during the period of immaturity that may influence survival and recruitment. 3. Using capture-mark-recapture multievent models allowing us to deal with uncertain and unobservable individual states, we analysed a long-term data set of wandering albatrosses to estimate both age- and sex-specific early-life survival and recruitment. We investigated environmental factors potentially driving these demographic traits using climatic and fisheries covariates and tested for density dependence. 4. Our study provides for the first time an estimate of annual survival during the first 2 years at sea for an albatross species (0·801 ± 0·014). Both age and sex affected early-life survival and recruitment processes of this long-lived seabird species. Early-life survival and recruitment were highly variable across years although the sensitivity of young birds to environmental variability decreased with age. Early-life survival was negatively associated with sea surface temperature, and recruitment rate was positively related to both Southern Annular Mode and sea surface temperature. We found strong evidence for density-dependent mortality of juveniles. Population size explained 41% of the variation of this parameter over the study period. 5. These results indicate that early-life survival and recruitment were strongly age and sex dependent in a dimorphic long-lived species. In addition, early-life demographic parameters were affected by natal environmental conditions and by environmental conditions faced during the period of immaturity. Finally, our results constitute one of the first demonstrations of density dependence on juvenile survival in seabirds, with major consequences for our understanding of population dynamics in seabirds. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Effects of desiccation stress on adult female longevity in Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae): results of a systematic review and pooled survival analysis.

PubMed

Schmidt, Chris A; Comeau, Genevieve; Monaghan, Andrew J; Williamson, Daniel J; Ernst, Kacey C

2018-04-25

Transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya are affected by the longevity of the adult female mosquito. Environmental conditions influence the survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes, the primary vectors of these viruses. While the association of temperature with Aedes mortality has been relatively well-explored, the role of humidity is less established. The current study's goals were to compile knowledge of the influence of humidity on adult survival in the important vector species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, and to quantify this relationship while accounting for the modifying effect of temperature. We performed a systematic literature review to identify studies reporting experimental results informing the relationships among temperature, humidity and adult survival in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Using a novel simulation approach to harmonize disparate survival data, we conducted pooled survival analyses via stratified and mixed effects Cox regression to estimate temperature-dependent associations between humidity and mortality risk for these species across a broad range of temperatures and vapor pressure deficits. After screening 1517 articles, 17 studies (one in semi-field and 16 in laboratory settings) met inclusion criteria and collectively reported results for 192 survival experiments. We review and synthesize relevant findings from these studies. Our stratified model estimated a strong temperature-dependent association of humidity with mortality in both species, though associations were not significant for Ae. albopictus in the mixed effects model. Lowest mortality risks were estimated around 27.5 °C and 21.5 °C for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively, and mortality increased non-linearly with decreasing humidity. Aedes aegypti had a survival advantage relative to Ae. albopictus in the stratified model under most conditions, but species differences were not significant in the mixed effects model. Humidity is associated with mortality risk in adult female Ae. aegypti in controlled settings. Data are limited at low humidities, temperature extremes, and for Ae. albopictus, and further studies should be conducted to reduce model uncertainty in these contexts. Desiccation is likely an important factor in Aedes population dynamics and viral transmission in arid regions. Models of Aedes-borne virus transmission may be improved by more comprehensively representing humidity effects.

VALORATE: fast and accurate log-rank test in balanced and unbalanced comparisons of survival curves and cancer genomics.

PubMed

Treviño, Victor; Tamez-Pena, Jose

2017-06-15

The association of genomic alterations to outcomes in cancer is affected by a problem of unbalanced groups generated by the low frequency of alterations. For this, an R package (VALORATE) that estimates the null distribution and the P -value of the log-rank based on a recent reformulation is presented. For a given number of alterations that define the size of survival groups, the log-rank density is estimated by a weighted sum of conditional distributions depending on a co-occurrence term of mutations and events. The estimations are accurately accelerated by sampling across co-occurrences allowing the analysis of large genomic datasets in few minutes. In conclusion, the proposed VALORATE R package is a valuable tool for survival analysis. The R package is available in CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org and in http://bioinformatica.mty.itesm.mx/valorateR . vtrevino@itesm.mx. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Familiarity with breeding habitat improves daily survival in colonial cliff swallows

PubMed Central

BROWN, CHARLES R.; BROWN, MARY BOMBERGER; BRAZEAL, KATHLEEN R.

2008-01-01

One probable cost of dispersing to a new breeding habitat is unfamiliarity with local conditions such as the whereabouts of food or the habits of local predators, and consequently immigrants may have lower probabilities of survival than more experienced residents. Within a breeding season, estimated daily survival probabilities of cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) at colonies in southwestern Nebraska were highest for birds that had always nested at the same site, followed by those for birds that had nested there in some (but not all) past years. Daily survival probabilities were lowest for birds that were naïve immigrants to a colony site and for yearling birds that were nesting for the first time. Birds with past experience at a colony site had monthly survival 8.6% greater than that of naïve immigrants. All colonies where experienced residents did better than immigrants were smaller than 750 nests in size, and in colonies greater than 750 nests, naïve immigrants paid no survival costs relative to experienced residents. Removal of nest ectoparasites by fumigation resulted in higher survival probabilities for all birds, on average, and diminished the differences between immigrants and past residents, probably by improving bird condition to the extent that effects of past experience were relatively less important and harder to detect. The greater survival of experienced residents could not be explained by condition or territory quality, suggesting that familiarity with a local area confers survival advantages during the breeding season for cliff swallows. Colonial nesting may help to moderate the cost of unfamiliarity with an area, likely through social transfer of information about food sources and enhanced vigilance in large groups. PMID:19802326

Estimating restricted mean treatment effects with stacked survival models

PubMed Central

Wey, Andrew; Vock, David M.; Connett, John; Rudser, Kyle

2016-01-01

The difference in restricted mean survival times between two groups is a clinically relevant summary measure. With observational data, there may be imbalances in confounding variables between the two groups. One approach to account for such imbalances is estimating a covariate-adjusted restricted mean difference by modeling the covariate-adjusted survival distribution, and then marginalizing over the covariate distribution. Since the estimator for the restricted mean difference is defined by the estimator for the covariate-adjusted survival distribution, it is natural to expect that a better estimator of the covariate-adjusted survival distribution is associated with a better estimator of the restricted mean difference. We therefore propose estimating restricted mean differences with stacked survival models. Stacked survival models estimate a weighted average of several survival models by minimizing predicted error. By including a range of parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric models, stacked survival models can robustly estimate a covariate-adjusted survival distribution and, therefore, the restricted mean treatment effect in a wide range of scenarios. We demonstrate through a simulation study that better performance of the covariate-adjusted survival distribution often leads to better mean-squared error of the restricted mean difference although there are notable exceptions. In addition, we demonstrate that the proposed estimator can perform nearly as well as Cox regression when the proportional hazards assumption is satisfied and significantly better when proportional hazards is violated. Finally, the proposed estimator is illustrated with data from the United Network for Organ Sharing to evaluate post-lung transplant survival between large and small-volume centers. PMID:26934835

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation after conditioning with I-131-anti-CD45 antibody plus fludarabine and low-dose total body irradiation for elderly patients with advanced acute myeloid leukemia or high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pagel, John M.; Gooley, T. A.; Rajendran, Joseph G.

2009-12-24

We conducted a study to estimate the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of I-131-anti-CD45 antibody (Ab; BC8) that can be combined with a standard reduced-intensity conditioning regimen before allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. Fifty-eight patients older than 50 years with advanced acute myeloid leukemia (AML) or high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) were treated with (131)I-BC8 Ab and fludarabine plus 2 Gy total body irradiation. Eighty-six percent of patients had AML or MDS with greater than 5% marrow blasts at the time of transplantation. Treatment produced a complete remission in all patients, and all had 100% donor-derived CD3(+) and CD33(+) cells in the bloodmore » by day 28 after the transplantation. The MTD of I-131-BC8 Ab delivered to liver was estimated to be 24 Gy. Seven patients (12%) died of nonrelapse causes by day 100. The estimated probability of recurrent malignancy at 1 year is 40%, and the 1-year survival estimate is 41%. These results show that CD45-targeted radiotherapy can be safely combined with a reduced-intensity conditioning regimen to yield encouraging overall survival for older, high-risk patients with AML or MDS. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00008177.« less

Racial differences in dietary antioxidant intake and cardiac event-free survival in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Wu, Jia-Rong; Song, Eun Kyeung; Moser, Debra K; Lennie, Terry A

2018-04-01

Heart failure is a chronic, burdensome condition with higher re-hospitalization rates in African Americans than Whites. Higher dietary antioxidant intake is associated with lower oxidative stress and improved endothelial function. Lower dietary antioxidant intake in African Americans may play a role in the re-hospitalization disparity between African American and White patients with heart failure. The objective of this study was to examine the associations among race, dietary antioxidant intake, and cardiac event-free survival in patients with heart failure. In a secondary analysis of 247 patients with heart failure who completed a four-day food diary, intake of alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein, zeaxanthin, lycopene, vitamins C and E, zinc, and selenium were assessed. Antioxidant deficiency was defined as intake below the estimated average requirement for antioxidants with an established estimated average requirement, or lower than the sample median for antioxidants without an established estimated average requirement. Patients were followed for a median of one year to determine time to first cardiac event (hospitalization or death). Survival analysis was used for data analysis. African American patients had more dietary antioxidant deficiencies and a shorter cardiac event-free survival compared with Whites ( p = .007 and p = .028, respectively). In Cox regression, race and antioxidant deficiency were associated with cardiac event-free survival before and after adjusting for covariates. African Americans with heart failure had more dietary antioxidant deficiencies and shorter cardiac event-free survival than Whites. This suggests that encouraging African American patients with heart failure to consume an antioxidant-rich diet may be beneficial in lengthening cardiac event-free survival.

Survival of juvenile black brant during brood rearing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Sedinger, James S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1995-01-01

Survival of young is an important and poorly understood component of waterfowl productivity. We estimated survival of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) goslings during summers 1987-89 on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, to determine timing and magnitude of gosling mortality and to compare methods of estimating gosling survival. Eighty-two percent of radio-tagged adult females (n = 61) fledged ≥1 gosling (brood success). We estimated survival of goslings within broods by 3 methods: (1) changes in mean brood size through time, (2) observation of goslings associated with marked adults, and (3) age ratios of brant captured in banding drives. Estimates of gosling survival within successful broods averaged 81% and ranged from 66 to 92%. Combining brood success and gosling survival within successful broods yielded estimates of overall gosling survival that averaged 68%, ranging from 79% in 1987 to 56% in 1989. Eighty-two percent of gosling mortality occurred in the first 15 days. Estimates of survival on the basis of age ratios of birds captured in banding drives are biased low. Our estimates of average gosling survival are higher than reported for other species of geese.

Reducing bias in survival under non-random temporary emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William L.; Langtimm, Catherine Ann

2014-01-01

Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard life-history parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified, nonetheless there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable non-random temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data was effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naïve constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, though still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several sources of data improved parameter estimates and reduced terminal bias. Efforts to incorporate or acquire such data should be considered by researchers and wildlife managers, especially in the years leading up to status assessments of species of interest. Simulation modeling is a very cost effective method to explore the potential impacts of using different sources of data to produce high quality demographic data to inform management.

Survival and metamorphosis of low-density populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in streams following lampricide treatment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Nicholas S.; Swink, William D.; Brenden, Travis O.; Slade, Jeffrey W.; Steeves, Todd B.; Fodale, Michael F.; Jones, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus control in the Great Lakes primarily involves application of lampricides to streams where larval production occurs to kill larvae prior to their metamorphosing and entering the lakes as parasites (juveniles). Because lampricides are not 100% effective, larvae that survive treatment maymetamorphose before streams are again treated. Larvae that survive treatment have not beenwidely studied, so their dynamics are notwell understood.Wetagged and released larvae in six Great Lake tributaries following lampricide treatment and estimated vital demographic rates using multistate tag-recovery models. Model-averaged larval survivals ranged from 56.8 to 57.6%. Model-averaged adult recovery rates, which were the product of juvenile survivals and adult capture probabilities, ranged from 6.8 to 9.3%. Using stochastic simulations, we estimated production of juvenile sea lampreys from a hypothetical population of treatment survivors under different growth conditions based on parameter estimates from this research. For fast-growing populations, juvenile production peaked 2 years after treatment. For slow-growing populations, juvenile production was approximately one-third that of fast-growing populations,with production not peaking until 4 years after treatment. Our results suggest that dynamics (i.e., survival, metamorphosis) of residual larval populations are very similar to those of untreated larval populations. Consequently, residual populations do not necessarily warrant special consideration for the purpose of sea lamprey control and can be ranked for treatment along with other populations. Consecutive lampricide treatments, which are under evaluation by the sea lamprey control program, would bemost effective for reducing juvenile production in large, fast-growing populations.

The relationship between offspring size and fitness: integrating theory and empiricism.

PubMed

Rollinson, Njal; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2013-02-01

How parents divide the energy available for reproduction between size and number of offspring has a profound effect on parental reproductive success. Theory indicates that the relationship between offspring size and offspring fitness is of fundamental importance to the evolution of parental reproductive strategies: this relationship predicts the optimal division of resources between size and number of offspring, it describes the fitness consequences for parents that deviate from optimality, and its shape can predict the most viable type of investment strategy in a given environment (e.g., conservative vs. diversified bet-hedging). Many previous attempts to estimate this relationship and the corresponding value of optimal offspring size have been frustrated by a lack of integration between theory and empiricism. In the present study, we draw from C. Smith and S. Fretwell's classic model to explain how a sound estimate of the offspring size--fitness relationship can be derived with empirical data. We evaluate what measures of fitness can be used to model the offspring size--fitness curve and optimal size, as well as which statistical models should and should not be used to estimate offspring size--fitness relationships. To construct the fitness curve, we recommend that offspring fitness be measured as survival up to the age at which the instantaneous rate of offspring mortality becomes random with respect to initial investment. Parental fitness is then expressed in ecologically meaningful, theoretically defensible, and broadly comparable units: the number of offspring surviving to independence. Although logistic and asymptotic regression have been widely used to estimate offspring size-fitness relationships, the former provides relatively unreliable estimates of optimal size when offspring survival and sample sizes are low, and the latter is unreliable under all conditions. We recommend that the Weibull-1 model be used to estimate this curve because it provides modest improvements in prediction accuracy under experimentally relevant conditions.

Survival of radio-implanted drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake) in relation to body size and sex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hyslop, N.L.; Meyers, J.M.; Cooper, R.J.; Norton, Terry M.

2009-01-01

Drymarchon couperi (eastern indigo snake) has experienced population declines across its range primarily as a result of extensive habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation. Conservation efforts for D. couperi have been hindered, in part, because of informational gaps regarding the species, including a lack of data on population ecology and estimates of demographic parameters such as survival. We conducted a 2- year radiotelemetry study of D. couperi on Fort Stewart Military Reservation and adjacent private lands located in southeastern Georgia to assess individual characteristics associated with probability of survival. We used known-fate modeling to estimate survival, and an information-theoretic approach, based on a priori hypotheses, to examine intraspecific differences in survival probabilities relative to individual covariates (sex, size, size standardized by sex, and overwintering location). Annual survival in 2003 and 2004 was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.73-0.97, n = 25) and 0.72 (95% CI = 0.52-0.86; n = 27), respectively. Results indicated that body size, standardized by sex, was the most important covariate determining survival of adult D. couperi, suggesting lower survival for larger individuals within each sex. We are uncertain of the mechanisms underlying this result, but possibilities may include greater resource needs for larger individuals within each sex, necessitating larger or more frequent movements, or a population with older individuals. Our results may also have been influenced by analysis limitations because of sample size, other sources of individual variation, or environmental conditions. ?? 2009 by The Herpetologists' League, Inc.

Estimating survival of radio-tagged birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunck, C.M.; Pollock, K.H.; Lebreton, J.-D.; North, P.M.

1993-01-01

Parametric and nonparametric methods for estimating survival of radio-tagged birds are described. The general assumptions of these methods are reviewed. An estimate based on the assumption of constant survival throughout the period is emphasized in the overview of parametric methods. Two nonparametric methods, the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the survival funcrion and the log rank test, are explained in detail The link between these nonparametric methods and traditional capture-recapture models is discussed aloag with considerations in designing studies that use telemetry techniques to estimate survival.

Do American dippers obtain a survival benefit from altitudinal migration?

PubMed

Green, David J; Whitehorne, Ivy B J; Middleton, Holly A; Morrissey, Christy A

2015-01-01

Studies of partial migrants provide an opportunity to assess the cost and benefits of migration. Previous work has demonstrated that sedentary American dippers (residents) have higher annual productivity than altitudinal migrants that move to higher elevations to breed. Here we use a ten-year (30 period) mark-recapture dataset to evaluate whether migrants offset their lower productivity with higher survival during the migration-breeding period when they occupy different habitat, or early and late-winter periods when they coexist with residents. Mark-recapture models provide no evidence that apparent monthly survival of migrants is higher than that of residents at any time of the year. The best-supported model suggests that monthly survival is higher in the migration-breeding period than winter periods. Another well-supported model suggested that residency conferred a survival benefit, and annual apparent survival (calculated from model weighted monthly apparent survival estimates using the Delta method) of residents (0.511 ± 0.038SE) was slightly higher than that of migrants (0.487 ± 0.032). Winter survival of American dippers was influenced by environmental conditions; monthly apparent survival increased as maximum daily flow rates increased and declined as winter temperatures became colder. However, we found no evidence that environmental conditions altered differences in winter survival of residents and migrants. Since migratory American dippers have lower productivity and slightly lower survival than residents our data suggests that partial migration is likely an outcome of competition for limited nest sites at low elevations, with less competitive individuals being forced to migrate to higher elevations in order to breed.

Importance of birthcoat for lamb survival and growth in the Romane sheep breed extensively managed on rangelands.

PubMed

Allain, D; Foulquié, D; Autran, P; Francois, D; Bouix, J

2014-01-01

The Romane sheep breed proved to be adapted to harsh conditions with high prolificacy and lamb survival in outdoor farming, even under bad climate conditions. This breed shows large variability in its fleece type at birth and it has been suggested that lamb survival could be related to birthcoat type. The aim of the present study was to: i) characterize the coat of the lamb at birth and quantify lamb survival in relation to the birthcoat type and its protective properties concerning heat loss in the Romane breed raised under permanent exposure outdoors from birth, and ii) estimate genetic parameters of birthcoat type in relation to lamb survival and live body weight. A total of 7,880 lambs from 104 sires and 1,664 dams were used in a 14-yr experiment. The pedigree file included 9,625 individuals over 15 generations. Birthcoat type, coat surface temperature, coat depth, lamb survival, and growth were measured from birth to weaning. Weather data (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and precipitation) were recorded daily during lambing time. Two types of coats were observed at birth: hairy coat (62.9% of lambs) with a long coat depth (average 23.3 mm) or woolly 1 (37.1% of lambs) with a short coat depth (average 8.3 mm). Birthcoat type was an important factor affecting lamb survival and growth from birth in the Romane breed. Total mortality rate was significantly less in hairy-bearing coat lambs than in short-woolly coat ones: 7.0% vs. 9.6%, 11.6 % vs. 14.8%, and 15.7 % vs. 20.1 % at 2, 10, and 50 d, respectively, and the relative risks of death increased by 37%, 67%, and 46 % at 2, 10, and 50 d of age, respectively, in short-woolly lambs. At birth, a significant lower coat surface temperature, indicating less heat loss, was observed in long-hairy coat lambs compared with others (21.1°C vs. 26.1°C). Heavier body weights and better growth performances up to the age of 50 d were observed in long-hairy-bearing coat lambs. Lamb survival was positively correlated to weather conditions at lambing time in short-woolly lambs, whereas no relation was observed in hairy-coat lambs. Heritability estimate of birthcoat type (hairy or woolly) is high (0.88). Genetic correlations between birthcoat type, lamb survival, and live body weight at birth were positive and moderate, suggesting that it would be beneficial to take birthcoat into account as an adaptive trait in any genetic strategies for sheep production in harsh conditions on rangelands.

Comment on 'Are survival rates for northern spotted owls biased?'

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franklin, A.B.; Nichols, J.D.; Anthony, R.G.; Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.; Forsman, E.D.; Anderson, D.R.

2006-01-01

Loehle et al. recently estimated survival rates from radio-telemetered northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina (Merriam, 1898)) and suggested that survival rates estimated for this species from capture-recapture studies were negatively biased, which subsequently resulted in the negatively biased estimates of rates of population change (lambda) reported by Anthony et al. (Wildl. Monogr. No. 163, pp. 1-47 (2006)). We argue that their survival estimates were inappropriate for comparison with capture-recapture estimates because (i) the manner in which they censored radio-telemetered individuals had the potential to positively bias their survival estimates, (ii) their estimates of survival were not valid for evaluating bias, and (iii) the size and distribution of their radiotelemetry study areas were sufficiently different from capture-recapture study areas to preclude comparisons. In addition, their inferences of negative bias in rates of population change estimated by Anthony et al. were incorrect and reflected a misunderstanding about those estimators.

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

2014-01-01

New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly versus daily) for estimating survival.

Designing a monitoring program to estimate estuarine survival of anadromous salmon smolts: simulating the effect of sample design on inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

2015-01-01

A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data could result in better informed management decisions and assist in guidance for more effective estuarine restoration projects.

Conditional Survival in Pediatric Malignancies: Analysis of data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program

PubMed Central

Mertens, Ann C; Yong, Jian; Dietz, Andrew; Kreiter, Erin; Yasui, Yutaka; Bleyer, Archie; Armstrong, Gregory T; Robison, Leslie L; Wasilewski-Masker, Karen

2015-01-01

Background Long-term survivors of pediatric cancer are at risk for life-threatening late effects of their cancer. Previous studies have shown excesses in long-term mortality within high-risk groups defined by demographic and treatment characteristics. Methods To investigate conditional survival in a pediatric cancer population, we performed an analysis of conditional survival in the original Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) cohort and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database registry. The overall probability of death for patients in 5 years and 10 years after they survived 5, 10, 15, and 20 years since cancer diagnosis, and cause-specific death in 10 years for 5-year survivors were estimated using the cumulative incidence method. Results Among CCSS and SEER patients who were alive 5 years post cancer diagnosis, within each diagnosis group at least 92% are alive in the subsequent 5 years, except leukemia patients of whom only 88% of 5-year survivors remain alive in the subsequent 5 years. The probability of all-cause mortality in the next 10 years on patients who survived at least 5 years after diagnosis, was 8.8% in CCSS and 10.6% in SEER, approximately three quarter of which were due to neoplasms as causes of death. Conclusion The risk of death of pediatric cancer survivors in 10 years can vary between diagnosis groups by at most 12% even up to 20 years post diagnosis. This information is clinically important in counseling patients on their conditional survival, particularly when survivors are seen in long-term follow-up. PMID:25557134

Improved Acquisition for System Sustainment: Multiobjective Tradeoff Analysis for Condition-Based Decision-Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-21

depend on the quality of allocating resources. This work uses a reliability model of system and environmental covariates incorporating information at...state space. Further, the use of condition variables allows for the direct modeling of maintenance impact with the assumption that a nominal value ... value ), the model in the application of aviation maintenance can provide a useful estimation of reliability at multiple levels. Adjusted survival

Specialized or opportunistic-how does the high mountain endemic butterfly Erebia nivalis survive in its extreme habitats?

PubMed

Ehl, Stefan; Dalstein, Vivian; Tull, Fabienne; Gros, Patrick; Schmitt, Thomas

2018-02-01

High mountain ecosystems are a challenge for the survival of animal and plant species, which have to evolve specific adaptations to cope with the prevailing extreme conditions. The strategies to survive may reach from opportunistic to highly adapted traits. One species successfully surviving under these conditions is the here studied butterfly Erebia nivalis. In a mark-release-recapture study performed in the Hohe Tauern National Park (Austria) from 22 July to 26 August 2013, we marked 1386 individuals and recaptured 342 of these. For each capture event, we recorded the exact point of capture and various other traits (wing conditions, behavior, nectar sources). The population showed a partial protandrous demography with the minority of males emerging prior to the females, but the majority being synchronized with them. Males and females differed significantly in their behavior with males being more flight active and females nectaring and resting more. Both sexes showed preferences for the same plant species as nectar sources, but this specialization apparently is the result of a rapid individual adaptation to the locally available flowers. Estimates of the realized dispersal distances predicted a comparatively high amount of long-distance flights, especially for females. Therefore, the adaptation of Erebia nivalis to the unpredictable high mountain conditions might be a mixture of opportunism and specialized traits. © 2016 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Declines in Strength and Mortality Risk Among Older Mexican Americans: Joint Modeling of Survival and Longitudinal Data.

PubMed

Peterson, Mark D; Zhang, Peng; Duchowny, Kate A; Markides, Kyriakos S; Ottenbacher, Kenneth J; Snih, Soham Al

2016-12-01

Grip strength is a noninvasive method of risk stratification; however, the association between changes in strength and mortality is unknown. The purposes of this study were to examine the association between grip strength and mortality among older Mexican Americans and to determine the ability of changes in strength to predict mortality. Longitudinal data were included from 3,050 participants in the Hispanic Established Population for the Epidemiological Study of the Elderly. Strength was assessed using a hand-held dynamometer and normalized to body mass. Conditional inference tree analyses were used to identify sex- and age-specific weakness thresholds, and the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to determine survival estimates across various strata. We also evaluated survival with traditional Cox proportional hazard regression for baseline strength, as well as with joint modeling of survival and longitudinal strength change trajectories. Survival estimates were lower among women who were weak at baseline for only 65- to 74-year-olds (11.93 vs 16.69 years). Survival estimates were also lower among men who were weak at baseline for only ≥75-year-olds (5.80 vs 7.39 years). Lower strength at baseline (per 0.1 decrement) was significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.19) for women only. There was a strong independent, longitudinal association between strength decline and early mortality, such that each 0.10 decrease in strength, within participants over time, resulted in a HR of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00-1.25) for women and a HR of 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04-1.28) for men. Longitudinal declines in strength are significantly associated with all-cause mortality in older Mexican Americans. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Monitoring the Migrations of Wild Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon Juveniles, 2007-2008 Report of Research.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Achord, Stephen; Sandford, Benjamin P.; Hockersmith, Eric E.

2009-05-26

This report provides results from an ongoing project to monitor the migration behavior and survival of wild juvenile spring/summer Chinook salmon in the Snake River Basin. Data reported is from detections of PIT tagged fish during late summer 2007 through mid-2008. Fish were tagged in summer 2007 by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) in Idaho and by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) in Oregon. Our analyses include migration behavior and estimated survival of fish at instream PIT-tag monitors and arrival timing and estimated survival to Lower Granite Dam. Principal results from tagging and interrogation during 2007-2008more » are listed below: (1) In July and August 2007, we PIT tagged and released 7,390 wild Chinook salmon parr in 12 Idaho streams or sample areas. (2) Overall observed mortality from collection, handling, tagging, and after a 24-hour holding period was 1.4%. (3) Of the 2,524 Chinook salmon parr PIT tagged and released in Valley Creek in summer 2007, 218 (8.6%) were detected at two instream PIT-tag monitoring systems in lower Valley Creek from late summer 2007 to the following spring 2008. Of these, 71.6% were detected in late summer/fall, 11.9% in winter, and 16.5% in spring. Estimated parr-to-smolt survival to Lower Granite Dam was 15.5% for the late summer/fall group, 48.0% for the winter group, and 58.5% for the spring group. Based on detections at downstream dams, the overall efficiency of VC1 (upper) or VC2 (lower) Valley Creek monitors for detecting these fish was 21.1%. Using this VC1 or VC2 efficiency, an estimated 40.8% of all summer-tagged parr survived to move out of Valley Creek, and their estimated survival from that point to Lower Granite Dam was 26.5%. Overall estimated parr-to-smolt survival for all summer-tagged parr from this stream at the dam was 12.1%. Development and improvement of instream PIT-tag monitoring systems continued throughout 2007 and 2008. (4) Testing of PIT-tag antennas in lower Big Creek during 2007-2008 showed these antennas (and anchoring method) are not adequate to withstand high spring flows in this drainage. Future plans involve removing these antennas before high spring flows. (5) At Little Goose Dam in 2008, length and/or weight were taken on 505 recaptured fish from 12 Idaho stream populations. Fish had grown an average of 40.1 mm in length and 10.6 g in weight over an average of 288 d. Their mean condition factor declined from 1.25 at release (parr) to 1.05 at recapture (smolt). (6) Mean release lengths for detected fish were significantly larger than for fish not detected the following spring and summer (P < 0.0001). (7) Fish that migrated through Lower Granite Dam in April and May were significantly larger at release than fish that migrated after May (P < 0.0001) (only 12 fish migrated after May). (8) In 2008, peak detections at Lower Granite Dam of parr tagged during summer 2007 (from the 12 stream populations in Idaho and 4 streams in Oregon) occurred during moderate flows of 87.5 kcfs on 7 May and high flows of 197.3 kcfs on 20 May. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile passage occurred on 30 April, 11 May, and 23 May, respectively. (9) In 2007-2008, estimated parr-to-smolt survival to Lower Granite Dam for Idaho and Oregon streams (combined) averaged 19.4% (range 6.2-38.4% depending on stream of origin). In Idaho streams the estimated parr-to-smolt survival averaged 21.0%. This survival was the second highest since 1993 for Idaho streams. Relative parr densities were lower in 2007 (2.4 parr/100 m{sup 2}) than in all previous years since 2000. In 2008, we observed low-to-moderate flows prior to mid-May and relatively cold weather conditions throughout the spring migration season. These conditions moved half of the fish through Lower Granite Dam prior to mid-May; then high flows moved 50 to 90% of the fish through the dam in only 12 days. Clearly, complex interrelationships of several factors drive the annual migrational timing of the stocks.« less

Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

1995-01-01

We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

Linking behavior, physiology, and survival of Atlantic Salmon smolts during estuary migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stich, Daniel S.; Zydlewski, Gayle B.; Kocik, John F.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2015-01-01

Decreased marine survival is identified as a component driver of continued declines of Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar. However, estimates of marine mortality often incorporate loss incurred during estuary migration that may be mechanistically distinct from factors affecting marine mortality. We examined movements and survival of 941 smolts (141 wild and 800 hatchery-reared fish) released in freshwater during passage through the Penobscot River estuary, Maine, from 2005 to 2013. We related trends in estuary arrival date, movement rate, and survival to fish characteristics, migratory history, and environmental conditions in the estuary. Fish that experienced the warmest thermal history arrived in the estuary 8 d earlier than those experiencing the coolest thermal history during development. Estuary arrival date was 10 d later for fish experiencing high flow than for fish experiencing low flow. Fish released furthest upstream arrived in the estuary 3 d later than those stocked further downstream but moved 0.5 km/h faster through the estuary. Temporally, movement rate and survival in the estuary both peaked in mid-May. Spatially, movement rate and survival both decreased from freshwater to the ocean. Wild smolts arrived in the estuary later than hatchery fish, but we observed no change in movement rate or survival attributable to rearing history. Fish with the highest gill Na+, K+-ATPase activity incurred 25% lower mortality through the estuary than fish with the lowest gill Na+, K+-ATPase activity. Smolt survival decreased (by up to 40%) with the increasing number of dams passed (ranging from two to nine) during freshwater migration. These results underscore the importance of physiological preparedness on performance and the delayed, indirect effects of dams on survival of Atlantic Salmon smolts during estuary migration, ultimately affecting marine survival estimates.

Predictive modelling of Lactobacillus casei KN291 survival in fermented soy beverage.

PubMed

Zielińska, Dorota; Dorota, Zielińska; Kołożyn-Krajewska, Danuta; Danuta, Kołożyn-Krajewska; Goryl, Antoni; Antoni, Goryl; Motyl, Ilona

2014-02-01

The aim of the study was to construct and verify predictive growth and survival models of a potentially probiotic bacteria in fermented soy beverage. The research material included natural soy beverage (Polgrunt, Poland) and the strain of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) - Lactobacillus casei KN291. To construct predictive models for the growth and survival of L. casei KN291 bacteria in the fermented soy beverage we design an experiment which allowed the collection of CFU data. Fermented soy beverage samples were stored at various temperature conditions (5, 10, 15, and 20°C) for 28 days. On the basis of obtained data concerning the survival of L. casei KN291 bacteria in soy beverage at different temperature and time conditions, two non-linear models (r(2)= 0.68-0.93) and two surface models (r(2)=0.76-0.79) were constructed; these models described the behaviour of the bacteria in the product to a satisfactory extent. Verification of the surface models was carried out utilizing the validation data - at 7°C during 28 days. It was found that applied models were well fitted and charged with small systematic errors, which is evidenced by accuracy factor - Af, bias factor - Bf and mean squared error - MSE. The constructed microbiological growth and survival models of L. casei KN291 in fermented soy beverage enable the estimation of products shelf life period, which in this case is defined by the requirement for the level of the bacteria to be above 10(6) CFU/cm(3). The constructed models may be useful as a tool for the manufacture of probiotic foods to estimate of their shelf life period.

Polar Bear Population Status in the Southern Beaufort Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, Ian

2006-01-01

Polar bears depend entirely on sea ice for survival. In recent years, a warming climate has caused major changes in the Arctic sea ice environment, leading to concerns regarding the status of polar bear populations. Here we present findings from long-term studies of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) region of the U.S. and Canada, which are relevant to these concerns. We applied open population capture-recapture models to data collected from 2001 to 2006, and estimated there were 1,526 (95% CI = 1,211; 1,841) polar bears in the SBS region in 2006. The number of polar bears in this region was previously estimated to be approximately 1,800. Because precision of earlier estimates was low, our current estimate of population size and the earlier ones cannot be statistically differentiated. For the 2001-06 period, the best fitting capture-recapture model provided estimates of total apparent survival of 0.43 for cubs of the year (COYs), and 0.92 for all polar bears older than COYs. Because the survival rates for older polar bears included multiple sex and age strata, they could not be compared to previous estimates. Survival rates for COYs, however, were significantly lower than estimates derived in earlier studies (P = 0.03). The lower survival of COYs was corroborated by a comparison of the number of COYs per adult female for periods before (1967-89) and after (1990-2006) the winter of 1989-90, when warming temperatures and altered atmospheric circulation caused an abrupt change in sea ice conditions in the Arctic basin. In the latter period, there were significantly more COYs per adult female in the spring (P = 0.02), and significantly fewer COYs per adult female in the autumn (P < 0.001). Apparently, cub production was higher in the latter period, but fewer cubs survived beyond the first 6 months of life. Parallel with declining survival, skull measurements suggested that COYs captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. Similarly, both skull measurements and body weights suggested that adult males captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. The smaller stature of males was especially notable because it corresponded with a higher mean age of adult males. Male polar bears continue to grow into their teens, and if adequately nourished, the older males captured in the latter period should have been larger than those captured earlier. In western Hudson Bay, Canada, a significant decline in population size was preceded by observed declines in cub survival and physical stature. The evidence of declining recruitment and body size reported here, therefore, suggests vigilance regarding the future of polar bears in the SBS region.

Apparent annual survival estimates of tropical songbirds better reflect life history variation when based on intensive field methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Thomas E.; Riordan, Margaret M.; Repin, Rimi; Mouton, James C.; Blake, William M.

2017-01-01

AimAdult survival is central to theories explaining latitudinal gradients in life history strategies. Life history theory predicts higher adult survival in tropical than north temperate regions given lower fecundity and parental effort. Early studies were consistent with this prediction, but standard-effort netting studies in recent decades suggested that apparent survival rates in temperate and tropical regions strongly overlap. Such results do not fit with life history theory. Targeted marking and resighting of breeding adults yielded higher survival estimates in the tropics, but this approach is thought to overestimate survival because it does not sample social and age classes with lower survival. We compared the effect of field methods on tropical survival estimates and their relationships with life history traits.LocationSabah, Malaysian Borneo.Time period2008–2016.Major taxonPasseriformes.MethodsWe used standard-effort netting and resighted individuals of all social and age classes of 18 tropical songbird species over 8 years. We compared apparent survival estimates between these two field methods with differing analytical approaches.ResultsEstimated detection and apparent survival probabilities from standard-effort netting were similar to those from other tropical studies that used standard-effort netting. Resighting data verified that a high proportion of individuals that were never recaptured in standard-effort netting remained in the study area, and many were observed breeding. Across all analytical approaches, addition of resighting yielded substantially higher survival estimates than did standard-effort netting alone. These apparent survival estimates were higher than for temperate zone species, consistent with latitudinal differences in life histories. Moreover, apparent survival estimates from addition of resighting, but not from standard-effort netting alone, were correlated with parental effort as measured by egg temperature across species.Main conclusionsInclusion of resighting showed that standard-effort netting alone can negatively bias apparent survival estimates and obscure life history relationships across latitudes and among tropical species.

Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holbrook, Christopher M.; Perry, Russell W.; Brandes, Patricia L.; Adams, Noah S.

2013-01-01

In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

Emigration of Natural and Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead Smolts from the Imnaha River, Oregon, Progress Report 2000-2002.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cleary, Peter; Kucera, Paul; Blenden, Michael

This report summarizes the emigration studies of the Nez Perce Tribe in the Imnaha River subbasin during the 2001 and 2002 migration years. A migration year for the Imnaha River is defined here as beginning July 31 of the previous year and ending July 30 the following year. The conclusion of the studies at the end of migration year 2002 marked the 11th year of the Nez Perce Tribe's Lower Snake River Emigration Studies. The Nez Perce Tribe has participated in the Fish Passage Center's Smolt Monitoring Program for nine of the 11 years. These studies collect and tag juvenilemore » chinook salmon and steelhead at two locations in the fall, rkm 74 and rkm 7, and at rkm 7 during the spring. Data from captured and tagged fish provide an evaluation of hatchery production and releases strategies, post release survival of hatchery chinook salmon, abundance of natural chinook salmon, and downstream survival and arrival timing of natural and hatchery chinook salmon and steelhead. The hydrologic conditions that migrating fish encountered in 2001 were characterized as a drought and conditions in 2002 were characterized as below average. Hatchery chinook salmon had a mean fork length that was 34 mm greater in 2001 and 35 mm greater in 2002 than the mean fork length of natural chinook smolts. Hatchery steelhead smolt mean fork lengths were 39 mm greater than natural steelhead smolts in 2001 and 44 mm greater than natural steelhead smolt fork lengths in 2002. A significant difference (p < 0.05) between hatchery and natural chinook salmon and steelhead fork lengths has been documented by these emigration studies from 1997 to 2002. Hatchery chinook salmon were volitionally released in 2001 and 2002 and the 90% arrivals for 2001 and 2002 at the lower rkm 7 trap were within the range of past observations of 22 to 38 days observed in 1999 and 2000. We estimated that 93.9% of the 123,014 hatchery chinook salmon released in 2001 survived to the lower trap and 90.2% of the 303,769 hatchery chinook salmon released in 2002 survived to the lower trap. Post release survival estimates for hatchery chinook salmon were within the range of past estimates; 88.4% in 1998 to 100.9% in 1994. An estimated 7,646 to 23,249 (95% C.I.) natural chinook salmon smolts migrated past the lower Imnaha River trap from April 4 to April 22. An additional 6,767 to 14,706 (95% C.I.) natural chinook salmon smolts migrated past the lower Imnaha River trap from April 23 to May 14, 2002. Natural chinook salmon captured and tagged at the upper rkm 74 trap survived to Lower Granite Dam (LGR) at a rate of 28.8% during migration year 2001 and 21.9% during migration year 2002. The survival estimate for fall tagged natural chinook salmon from the lower trap to LGR was 41.9% in 2001 and 33.3% in 2002. Differences between survival from release to LGR for fall tagged natural chinook salmon from the lower trap have been 5.9% to 16.9% higher than for fall tagged natural chinook salmon from the upper trap from 1994 to 2002. Spring PIT tag release groups of natural chinook salmon, hatchery chinook salmon, and hatchery steelhead produced estimates of survival from the trap to LGR within the range of past estimates since 1993. Estimated survival from release to LGR for 2001 and 2002 were as follows: 83.7% and 86.9% for natural chinook salmon, 80.3% and 77.3% for hatchery chinook salmon, 82.7% and 81.8% for natural steelhead, and 82.0% and 83.0% for hatchery steelhead. Estimates of survival for spring tagged fish from the trap to Lower Monumental Dam (LMO) during the drought of 2001 were the lowest estimates of survival from 1998 to 2002 for natural chinook salmon, and from1997 to 2002 for natural and hatchery steelhead. Estimates of migration year 2001 survival from the trap to LMO were as follows: 65.6% - natural chinook salmon, 68.9% - hatchery chinook salmon, 49.7% natural steelhead, and 42.9% - hatchery steelhead. Estimates of migration year 2002 survival from the trap to LMO were as follows: 76.8% - natural chinook salmon, 68.1% - hatchery chinook salmon, 69.9% natural steelhead, and 78.0% - hatchery steelhead. A smolt-to-adult return rate (SAR) index from LGR to LGR was calculated for migrating pre-smolt and smolt natural chinook salmon, that were PIT tagged in the fall and spring at the lower trap, for brood years 1996 to 1998 (migration years 1998 to 2000). The SARs are representative of in-river Imnaha natural chinook salmon. The LGR to LGR SAR index for presmolt chinook salmon is as follows: 3.08% (BY 1996), 2.41% (BY 1997), and 2.98% (BY 1998). Smolt-to-adult return rate index for spring tagged smolts was lower: 1.75% (BY 1996), 2.24% (BY 1997) and 2.94% (BY 1998). Fall tagged natural chinook salmon from the upper and lower trap and spring tagged natural chinook salmon from the lower trap all had significantly different (p < 0.05) median and cumulative arrival timing at LGR during migration year 2001.« less

Estimates of growth and mortality of under-yearling smallmouth bass in Spednic Lake, from 1970 through 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Trial, Joan G.

2014-01-01

This report is the product of a 2013 cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey, the International Joint Commission, and the Maine Bureau of Sea Run Fisheries and Habitat to quantify the effects of meteorological conditions (from 1970 through 2008) on the survival of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in the first year of life in Spednic Lake. This report documents the data and methods used to estimate historical daily mean lake surface-water temperatures from early spring through late autumn, which were used to estimate the dates of smallmouth bass spawning, young-of-the-year growth, and probable strength of each year class. Mortality of eggs and fry in nests was modeled and estimated to exceed 10 percent in 17 of 39 years; during those years, cold temperatures in the early part of the spawning period resulted in mortality to fish that were estimated to have had the longest growing season and attain the greatest length. Modeled length-dependent overwinter survival combined with early mortality identified 1986, 1994, 1996, and 2004 as the years in which temperature was likely to have presented the greatest challenge to year-class strength in the Spednic Lake fishery. Age distribution of bass in fisheries on lakes in the St. Croix and surrounding watersheds confirmed that conditions in 1986 and 1996 resulted in weak smallmouth bass year classes (age-four or age-five bass representing less than 15 percent of a 100-fish sample).

Early marine growth in relation to marine-stage survival rates for Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farley, Edward V.; Murphy, J.M.; Adkison, Milo D.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Helle, J.H.; Moss, J.H.; Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2007-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that larger juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Bristol Bay, Alaska, have higher marine-stage survival rates than smaller juvenile salmon. We used scales from returning adults (33 years of data) and trawl samples of juveniles (n= 3572) collected along the eastern Bering Sea shelf during August through September 2000−02. The size of juvenile sockeye salmon mirrored indices of their marine-stage survival rate (e.g., smaller fish had lower indices of marine-stage survival rate). However, there was no relationship between the size of sockeye salmon after their first year at sea, as estimated from archived scales, and brood-year survival size was relatively uniform over the time series, possibly indicating size-selective mortality on smaller individuals during their marine residence. Variation in size, relative abundance, and marine-stage survival rate of juvenile sockeye salmon is likely related to ocean conditions affecting their early marine migratory pathways along the eastern Bering Sea shelf.

Landmark Estimation of Survival and Treatment Effect in a Randomized Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Parast, Layla; Tian, Lu; Cai, Tianxi

2013-01-01

Summary In many studies with a survival outcome, it is often not feasible to fully observe the primary event of interest. This often leads to heavy censoring and thus, difficulty in efficiently estimating survival or comparing survival rates between two groups. In certain diseases, baseline covariates and the event time of non-fatal intermediate events may be associated with overall survival. In these settings, incorporating such additional information may lead to gains in efficiency in estimation of survival and testing for a difference in survival between two treatment groups. If gains in efficiency can be achieved, it may then be possible to decrease the sample size of patients required for a study to achieve a particular power level or decrease the duration of the study. Most existing methods for incorporating intermediate events and covariates to predict survival focus on estimation of relative risk parameters and/or the joint distribution of events under semiparametric models. However, in practice, these model assumptions may not hold and hence may lead to biased estimates of the marginal survival. In this paper, we propose a semi-nonparametric two-stage procedure to estimate and compare t-year survival rates by incorporating intermediate event information observed before some landmark time, which serves as a useful approach to overcome semi-competing risks issues. In a randomized clinical trial setting, we further improve efficiency through an additional calibration step. Simulation studies demonstrate substantial potential gains in efficiency in terms of estimation and power. We illustrate our proposed procedures using an AIDS Clinical Trial Protocol 175 dataset by estimating survival and examining the difference in survival between two treatment groups: zidovudine and zidovudine plus zalcitabine. PMID:24659838

Spawning site fidelity and apparent annual survival of walleye (Sander vitreus) differ between a Lake Huron and Lake Erie tributary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayden, Todd A.; Binder, Thomas; Holbrook, Christopher; Vandergoot, Christopher; Fielder, David G.; Cooke, Steven J.; Dettmers, John M.; Krueger, Charles C.

2018-01-01

Fidelity to spawning habitats can maximise reproductive success of fish by synchronising movements to sites of previous recruitment. To determine the role of reproductive fidelity in structuring walleye Sander vitreus populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes, we used acoustic telemetry combined with Cormack–Jolly–Seber capture–recapture models to estimate spawning site fidelity and apparent annual survival for the Tittabawassee River in Lake Huron and Maumee River in Lake Erie. Walleye in spawning condition were tagged from the Tittabawassee River in Lake Huron and Maumee River in Lake Erie in 2011–2012. Site fidelity and apparent annual survival were estimated from return of individuals to the stream where tagged. Site fidelity estimates were higher in the Tittabawassee River (95%) than the Maumee River (70%) and were not related to sex or fish length at tagging. Apparent annual survival of walleye tagged in the Tittabawassee did not differ among spawning seasons but was higher for female than male walleye and decreased linearly as fish length increased. Apparent annual survival of walleye tagged in the Maumee River did not differ among spawning seasons but was higher for female walleye than male walleye and increased linearly as fish length increased. Greater fidelity of walleye tagged in the Tittabawassee River than walleye tagged in the Maumee River may be related to the close proximity to the Maumee River of other spawning aggregations and multiple spawning sites in Lake Erie. As spawning site fidelity increases, management actions to conserve population structure require an increasing focus on individual stocks.

Winter survival of lesser scaup in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herring, G.; Collazo, J.A.

2004-01-01

The North American continental population of lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) has been declining since the mid-1980s. Seasonal survival estimates may provide insights about the ecological basis for this decline, but such data are not available. We estimated post-harvest winter survival of lesser scaup in east-central Florida, USA, where 62% of the Atlantic Flyway population winters. The Kaplan-Meier survival estimate from 11 January to 14 March 2002 was 0.95 ?? 0.04 (SE) for females and 0.90 ?? 0.09 for males. These estimates were not different (P = 0.64), and pooled survival was 0.93 ?? 0.04. Temporary emigration (movement out of and return to the study area) was exhibited by 25% of the birds during survey periods, but absences were short and were believed to have had little effect on precision of survival estimates. Our findings suggested that natural mortality at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) and surrounding estuarine areas was relatively low. Our results also indicate that habitat quality in this portion of east-central Florida was sufficient to meet overwintering requirements and likely contributed to the reported survival rates. Estimating survival during other stages of the annual cycle, as well as an overall winter estimate reflecting harvest mortality, is necessary to determine whether low survival rates are responsible for continental population declines.

Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

2004-01-01

We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

2010-01-01

Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

2010-07-01

We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root- n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root-n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided. PMID:24790286

Compliance Monitoring of Juvenile Subyearling Chinook Salmon Survival and Passage at The Dalles Dam, Summer 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Gary E.; Carlson, Thomas J.; Skalski, John R.

2010-12-21

The purpose of this compliance study was to estimate dam passage survival of subyearling Chinook salmon smolts at The Dalles Dam during summer 2010. Under the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) Biological Opinion (BiOp), dam passage survival should be greater than or equal to 0.93 and estimated with a standard error (SE) less than or equal 0.015. The study also estimated smolt passage survival from the forebay 2 km upstream of the dam to the tailrace 2 km below the dam The forebay-to-tailrace survival estimate satisfies the “BRZ-to-BRZ” survival estimate called for in the Fish Accords. , asmore » well as the forebay residence time, tailrace egress time, and spill passage efficiency, as required in the Columbia Basin Fish Accords. The estimate of dam survival for subyearling Chinook salmon at The Dalles in 2010 was 0.9404 with an associated standard error of 0.0091.« less

Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

The rare peat moss Sphagnum wulfianum (Sphagnaceae) did not survive the last glacial period in northern European refugia.

PubMed

Kyrkjeeide, Magni Olsen; Hassel, Kristian; Flatberg, Kjell I; Stenøien, Hans K

2012-04-01

Organisms may survive unfavorable conditions either by moving to more favorable areas by means of dispersal or by adapting to stressful environments. Pleistocene glacial periods represent extremely unfavorable conditions for the majority of life forms, especially sessile organisms. Many studies have revealed placements of refugial areas and postglacial colonization patterns of seed plants, but little is still known about areas of long-term survival and historical migration routes of bryophytes. Given overall differences in stress tolerance between seed plants and bryophytes, it is of interest to know whether bryophytes have survived periods of extreme climatic conditions better then seed plants in northern areas. The haploid and rarely spore-producing peat moss Sphagnum wulfianum is mostly found in areas that were covered by ice during the last glacial maximum. Twelve microsatellite markers were amplified from 43 populations (367 shoots) of this species, and data were analyzed using population genetic diversity statistics, Bayesian clustering methods, and coalescence-based inference tools to estimate historical and demographic parameters. Genetic diversity within populations was low, but populations were highly differentiated, with two main genetic clusters being recognized. The two main genetic groups have diverged quite recently in the Holocene, and the pattern of genetic variability and structuring gives no support for survival in Scandinavian refugia during the last glacial period in this species. The dispersal ability of this plant thus seems surprisingly high despite its infrequent spore production.

Advanced techniques for modeling avian nest survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2002-01-01

Estimation of avian nest survival has traditionally involved simple measures of apparent nest survival or Mayfield constant-nest-survival models. However, these methods do not allow researchers to build models that rigorously assess the importance of a wide range of biological factors that affect nest survival. Models that incorporate greater detail, such as temporal variation in nest survival and covariates representative of individual nests represent a substantial improvement over traditional estimation methods. In an attempt to improve nest survival estimation procedures, we introduce the nest survival model now available in the program MARK and demonstrate its use on a nesting study of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in Montana, USA. We modeled the daily survival of Mountain Plover nests as a function of the sex of the incubating adult, nest age, year, linear and quadratic time trends, and two weather covariates (maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation) during a six-year study (1995–2000). We found no evidence for yearly differences or an effect of maximum daily temperature on the daily nest survival of Mountain Plovers. Survival rates of nests tended by female and male plovers differed (female rate = 0.33; male rate = 0.49). The estimate of the additive effect for males on nest survival rate was 0.37 (95% confidence limits were 0.03, 0.71) on a logit scale. Daily survival rates of nests increased with nest age; the estimate of daily nest-age change in survival in the best model was 0.06 (95% confidence limits were 0.04, 0.09) on a logit scale. Daily precipitation decreased the probability that the nest would survive to the next day; the estimate of the additive effect of daily precipitation on the nest survival rate was −1.08 (95% confidence limits were −2.12, −0.13) on a logit scale. Our approach to modeling daily nest-survival rates allowed several biological factors of interest to be easily included in nest survival models and allowed us to generate more biologically meaningful estimates of nest survival.

Timely disclosure of progress in long-term cancer survival: the boomerang method substantially improved estimates in a comparative study.

PubMed

Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina

2016-02-01

Monitoring cancer survival is a key task of cancer registries, but timely disclosure of progress in long-term survival remains a challenge. We introduce and evaluate a novel method, denoted "boomerang method," for deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival. We applied three established methods (cohort, complete, and period analysis) and the boomerang method to derive up-to-date 10-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with common solid cancers and hematological malignancies in the United States. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 database, we compared the most up-to-date age-specific estimates that might have been obtained with the database including patients diagnosed up to 2001 with 10-year survival later observed for patients diagnosed in 1997-2001. For cancers with little or no increase in survival over time, the various estimates of 10-year relative survival potentially available by the end of 2001 were generally rather similar. For malignancies with strongly increasing survival over time, including breast and prostate cancer and all hematological malignancies, the boomerang method provided estimates that were closest to later observed 10-year relative survival in 23 of the 34 groups assessed. The boomerang method can substantially improve up-to-dateness of long-term cancer survival estimates in times of ongoing improvement in prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exoplanet environments to harbour extremophile life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janot-Pacheco, Eduardo; Lage, Claudia A. S.; Lima, Ivan G. P.

2010-02-01

In this contribution, we estimate the temperature at the surface of known exoplanets and of their putative satellites for two albedo extreme cases (Venus and Mars) and present a selection of extremophiles living on Earth that can live under those conditions. We examine also the possibility of survival of microorganisms in planetary systems of variable stars.

Correlated growth and survival of juvenile spectacled eiders: Evidence of habitat limitation?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Morse, Julie A.; Grand, James B.; Moran, Christine L.

2006-01-01

We studied the growth and survival of Spectacled Eider (Somateria fischeri) ducklings to 30 days of age along the lower Kashunuk River on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta from 1995 to 2000. We replicated this study at a second site, Kigigak Island, in 1999 and 2000. Age-adjusted estimates of duckling mass and survival at 30 days posthatching were highly variable. Duckling survival was consistently higher on Kigigak Island in 1999 and 2000, averaging 67%, while survival on the Kashunuk River averaged 45% during the same time period. Duckling survival was negatively related to hatching date. At the Kashunuk River site our data supported models that indicated age-adjusted mass varied with habitat type and declined with hatching date. Ducklings from Kashunuk River were heavier in 1999, while ducklings from Kigigak Island were heavier in 2000. However, we found a positive correlation between 30-day duckling survival and age-adjusted mass, suggesting a localized environmental effect on both parameters. We conclude that predation may be the proximate mechanism of mortality, but habitat conditions are likely the ultimate factors influencing duckling survival. Geographic variation in rates of duckling survival and apparent growth suggest that spatial heterogeneity in population vital rates is occurring at multiple levels.

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Pilliod, D.S.

2011-01-01

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse-time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6years of capture-recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0??41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0??51-0??54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0??75-0??78) but lower recruitment rates (0??25). Synthesis and applications.We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of conservation actions such as repatriations or habitat management aimed to improve recruitment. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology ?? 2011 British Ecological Society.

Nutrition advocacy and national development: the PROFILES programme and its application.

PubMed

Burkhalter, B R; Abel, E; Aguayo, V; Diene, S M; Parlato, M B; Ross, J S

1999-01-01

Investment in nutritional programmes can contribute to economic growth and is cost-effective in improving child survival and development. In order to communicate this to decision-makers, the PROFILES nutrition advocacy and policy development programme was applied in certain developing countries. Effective advocacy is necessary to generate financial and political support for scaling up from small pilot projects and maintaining successful national programmes. The programme uses scientific knowledge to estimate development indicators such as mortality, morbidity, fertility, school performance and labour productivity from the size and nutritional condition of populations. Changes in nutritional condition are estimated from the costs, coverage and effectiveness of proposed programmes. In Bangladesh this approach helped to gain approval and funding for a major nutrition programme. PROFILES helped to promote the nutrition component of an early childhood development programme in the Philippines, and to make nutrition a top priority in Ghana's new national child survival strategy. The application of PROFILES in these and other countries has been supported by the United States Agency for International Development, the United Nations Children's Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Micronutrient Initiative and other bodies.

Bayesian averaging over Decision Tree models for trauma severity scoring.

PubMed

Schetinin, V; Jakaite, L; Krzanowski, W

2018-01-01

Health care practitioners analyse possible risks of misleading decisions and need to estimate and quantify uncertainty in predictions. We have examined the "gold" standard of screening a patient's conditions for predicting survival probability, based on logistic regression modelling, which is used in trauma care for clinical purposes and quality audit. This methodology is based on theoretical assumptions about data and uncertainties. Models induced within such an approach have exposed a number of problems, providing unexplained fluctuation of predicted survival and low accuracy of estimating uncertainty intervals within which predictions are made. Bayesian method, which in theory is capable of providing accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates, has been adopted in our study using Decision Tree models. Our approach has been tested on a large set of patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank and has outperformed the standard method in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby providing practitioners with accurate estimates of the predictive posterior densities of interest that are required for making risk-aware decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of dam-passage survival of yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead at The Dalles Dam, Oregon, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Kock, Tobias J.; Perry, Russell W.; Smith, Steven G.

2011-01-01

We performed a series of analyses of mark-recapture data from a study at The Dalles Dam during 2010 to determine if model assumptions for estimation of juvenile salmonid dam-passage survival were met and if results were similar to those using the University of Washington's newly developed ATLAS software. The study was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and used acoustic telemetry of yearling Chinook salmon, juvenile steelhead, and subyearling Chinook salmon released at three sites according to the new virtual/paired-release statistical model. This was the first field application of the new model, and the results were used to measure compliance with minimum survival standards set forth in a recent Biological Opinion. Our analyses indicated that most model assumptions were met. The fish groups mixed in time and space, and no euthanized tagged fish were detected. Estimates of reach-specific survival were similar in fish tagged by each of the six taggers during the spring, but not in the summer. Tagger effort was unevenly allocated temporally during tagging of subyearling Chinook salmon in the summer; the difference in survival estimates among taggers was more likely a result of a temporal trend in actual survival than of tagger effects. The reach-specific survival of fish released at the three sites was not equal in the reaches they had in common for juvenile steelhead or subyearling Chinook salmon, violating one model assumption. This violation did not affect the estimate of dam-passage survival, because data from the common reaches were not used in its calculation. Contrary to expectation, precision of survival estimates was not improved by using the most parsimonious model of recapture probabilities instead of the fully parameterized model. Adjusting survival estimates for differences in fish travel times and tag lives increased the dam-passage survival estimate for yearling Chinook salmon by 0.0001 and for juvenile steelhead by 0.0004. The estimate was unchanged for subyearling Chinook salmon. The tag-life-adjusted dam-passage survival estimates from our analyses were 0.9641 (standard error [SE] 0.0096) for yearling Chinook salmon, 0.9534 (SE 0.0097) for juvenile steelhead, and 0.9404 (SE 0.0091) for subyearling Chinook salmon. These were within 0.0001 of estimates made by the University of Washington using the ATLAS software. Contrary to the intent of the virtual/paired-release model to adjust estimates of the paired-release model downward in order to account for differential handling mortality rates between release groups, random variation in survival estimates may result in an upward adjustment of survival relative to estimates from the paired-release model. Further investigation of this property of the virtual/paired-release model likely would prove beneficial. In addition, we suggest that differential selective pressures near release sites of the two control groups could bias estimates of dam-passage survival from the virtual/paired-release model.

Nonparametric Discrete Survival Function Estimation with Uncertain Endpoints Using an Internal Validation Subsample

PubMed Central

Zee, Jarcy; Xie, Sharon X.

2015-01-01

Summary When a true survival endpoint cannot be assessed for some subjects, an alternative endpoint that measures the true endpoint with error may be collected, which often occurs when obtaining the true endpoint is too invasive or costly. We develop an estimated likelihood function for the situation where we have both uncertain endpoints for all participants and true endpoints for only a subset of participants. We propose a nonparametric maximum estimated likelihood estimator of the discrete survival function of time to the true endpoint. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We demonstrate through extensive simulations that the proposed estimator has little bias compared to the naïve Kaplan-Meier survival function estimator, which uses only uncertain endpoints, and more efficient with moderate missingness compared to the complete-case Kaplan-Meier survival function estimator, which uses only available true endpoints. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a dataset for estimating the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. PMID:25916510

September-March survival of female northern pintails radiotagged in San Joaquin Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fleskes, J.P.; Jarvis, R.L.; Gilmer, D.S.

2002-01-01

To improve understanding of pintail ecology, we radiotagged 191 hatch-year (HY) and 228 after-hatch-year (AHY) female northern pintails (Anas acuta) in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), and studied their survival throughout central California, USA, during September-March, 1991-1994. We used adjusted Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) values to contrast known-fate models and examine variation in survival rates relative to year, interval, wintering region (AJV, other central California), pintail age, body mass at capture, capture date, capture area, and radio type. The best-fitting model included only interval x year and age x body mass; the next 2 best-fitting models also included wintering region and capture date. Hunting caused 83% of the mortalities we observed, and survival was consistently lower during hunting than nonhunting intervals. Nonhunting and hunting mortality during early winter was highest during the 1991-1992 drought year. Early-winter survival improved during the study along with habitat conditions in the Grassland Ecological Area (EA), where most radiotagged pintails spent early winter. Survival was more closely related to body mass at capture for HY than AHY pintails, even after accounting for the later arrival (based on capture date) of HY pintails, suggesting HY pintails are less adept at improving their condition. Thus, productivity estimates based on harvest age ratios may be biased if relative vulnerability of HY and AHY pintails is assumed to be constant because fall body condition of pintails may vary greatly among years. Cumulative winter survival was 75.6% (95% CI = 68.3% to 81.7%) for AHY and 65.4% (56.7% to 73.1%) for HY female pintails. Daily odds of survival in the cotton-agriculture landscape of the SJV were -21.3% (-40.3% to +3.7%) lower than in the rice-agriculture landscape of the Sacramento Valley (SACV) and other central California areas. Higher hunting mortality may be 1 reason pintails have declined more in SJV than in SACV.

Postfledging survival of European starlings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krementz, D.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

1989-01-01

We tested the hypotheses that mass at fledging and fledge date within the breeding season affect postfledging survival in European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Nestlings were weighed on day 18 after hatch and tagged with individually identifiable patagial tags. Fledge date was recorded. Marked fledglings were resighted during weekly two-day intensive observation periods for 9 weeks postfledging. Post-fledging survival and sighting probabilities were estimated for each of four groups (early or late fledging by heavy or light fledging mass). Body mass was related to post-fledging survival for birds that fledged early. Results were not clear-cut for relative fledge date, although there was weak evidence that this also influenced survival. Highest survival probability estimates occurred in the EARLY-HEAVY group, while the lowest survival estimate occurred in the LATE-LIGHT group. Sighting probabilities differed significantly among groups, emphasizing the need to estimate and compare survival using models which explicitly incorporate sighting probabilities.

Annual survival of Snail Kites in Florida: Radio telemetry versus capture-resighting data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennetts, R.E.; Dreitz, V.J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

1999-01-01

We estimated annual survival of Snail Kites (Rostrhamus sociabilis) in Florida using the Kaplan-Meier estimator with data from 271 radio-tagged birds over a three-year period and capture-recapture (resighting) models with data from 1,319 banded birds over a six-year period. We tested the hypothesis that survival differed among three age classes using both data sources. We tested additional hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation using a combination of data from radio telemetry and single- and multistrata capture-recapture models. Results from these data sets were similar in their indications of the sources of variation in survival, but they differed in some parameter estimates. Both data sources indicated that survival was higher for adults than for juveniles, but they did not support delineation of a subadult age class. Our data also indicated that survival differed among years and regions for juveniles but not for adults. Estimates of juvenile survival using radio telemetry data were higher than estimates using capture-recapture models for two of three years (1992 and 1993). Ancillary evidence based on censored birds indicated that some mortality of radio-tagged juveniles went undetected during those years, resulting in biased estimates. Thus, we have greater confidence in our estimates of juvenile survival using capture-recapture models. Precision of estimates reflected the number of parameters estimated and was surprisingly similar between radio telemetry and single-stratum capture-recapture models, given the substantial differences in sample sizes. Not having to estimate resighting probability likely offsets, to some degree, the smaller sample sizes from our radio telemetry data. Precision of capture-recapture models was lower using multistrata models where region-specific parameters were estimated than using single-stratum models, where spatial variation in parameters was not taken into account.

Breeding season survival and breeding incidence of female Mottled Ducks on the upper Texas gulf coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rigby, Elizabeth A.; Haukos, David A.

2012-01-01

Previous Mottled Duck (Anas fulvigula) studies suggested that high female breeding season survival may be caused by low nesting effort, but few breeding season estimates of survival associated with nesting effort exist on the western Gulf Coast. Here, breeding season survival (N = 40) and breeding incidence (N = 39) were estimated for female Mottled Ducks on the upper Texas coast, 2006–2008. Females were fitted with backpack radio transmitters and visually relocated every 3–4 days. Weekly survival was estimated using the Known Fate procedure of program MARK with breeding incidence estimated as the annual proportion of females observed nesting or with broods. The top-ranked survival model included a body mass covariate and held weekly female survival constant across weeks and years (SW = 0.986, SE = 0.006). When compared to survival across the entire year estimated from previous band recovery and age ratio analysis, survival rate during the breeding season did not differ. Breeding incidence was well below 100% in all years and highly variable among years (15%–63%). Breeding season survival and breeding incidence were similar to estimates obtained with implant transmitters from the mid-coast of Texas. The greatest breeding incidence for both studies occurred when drought indices indicated average environmental moisture during the breeding season. The observed combination of low breeding incidence and high breeding season survival support the hypothesis of a trade-off between the ecological cost of nesting effort and survival for Mottled Duck females. Habitat cues that trigger nesting are unknown and should be investigated.

The effect of rearing methods on survival of reintroduced black-footed ferrets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biggins, D.E.; Godbey, J.L.; Hanebury, L.R.; Luce, B.; Marinari, P.E.; Matchett, M.R.; Vargas, A.

1998-01-01

We estimated minimum survival rates for 282 young-of-year, captive-reared, black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) reintroduced into prairie dog (Cynomys spp.) colonies in Wyoming, Montana, and South Dakota. We used night surveys with spotlights to locate ferrets about 1 month and 9 months postrelease. We modeled minimum survival rates using gender, year, site, and 4 rearing methods. Minimum survival rates were highest (30% for 1 month, 20% for 9 months) for ferrets reared from early ages in outdoor pens with simulated prairie dog habitat; survival was lowest for cage-reared ferrets released without pen experience (11% for 1 month, 2% for 9 months). Rearing method and year influenced 1-month survival in a comparison of 3 levels of pen experience (pen rearing as defined above, transfer of kits from zoos to pen facilities at age 60-90 days, transfer at age >90 days) during releases in 1994-95 in Montana. Higher survival was associated with intensive management of coyotes (Canis latrans) in 1995. Survival was not different (P > 0.05) between sites or sexes, regardless of model. We recommend routine use of outdoor pens for prerelease conditioning of black-footed ferret kits.

Cancer survival in Eastern and Western Germany after the fall of the iron curtain.

PubMed

Jansen, Lina; Gondos, Adam; Eberle, Andrea; Emrich, Katharina; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Brenner, Hermann

2012-09-01

Prior to the German reunification, cancer survival was much lower in East than in West Germany. We compare cancer survival between Eastern and Western Germany in the early twenty-first century, i.e. the second decade after the German reunification. Using data from 11 population-based cancer registries covering a population of 33 million people, 5-year age-standardized relative survival for the time period 2002-2006 was estimated for the 25 most common cancers using model-based period analysis. In 2002-2006, 5-year relative survival was very similar for most cancers, with differences below 3% units for 20 of 25 cancer sites. Larger, statistically significant survival advantages were seen for oral cavity, oesophagus, and gallbladder cancer and skin melanoma in the West and for leukemia in the East. Our study shows that within two decades after the assimilation of political and health care systems, the former major survival gap of cancer patients in Eastern Germany has been essentially overcome. This result is encouraging as it suggests that, even though economic conditions have remained difficult in Eastern Germany, comparable health care provision may nevertheless enable comparable levels of cancer survival within a relatively short period of time.

Survival for ovarian cancer in Europe: the across-country variation did not shrink in the past decade.

PubMed

Oberaigner, Willi; Minicozzi, Pamela; Bielska-Lasota, Magdalena; Allemani, Claudia; de Angelis, Roberta; Mangone, Lucia; Sant, Milena

2012-04-01

Survival for ovarian cancer is the poorest of all gynaecological cancer sites. Our aim was to present the most up-to-date survival estimate for ovarian cancer by age and morphology and to answer the question whether survival for ovarian cancer improved in Europe during the 1990s. This analysis was performed with data from the EUROCARE database. We considered all adult women diagnosed with ovarian cancer between 1995 and 2002 and life status followed up until the end of 2003. A total of 97 691 cases were contributed by 72 European cancer registries in 24 countries. We estimated the most up-to-date relative survival for a mean of 23 661 patients followed up in 2000-2003 using the period hybrid approach and described the relative survival trends from the beginning of 1990s. Overall, the European age-standardised one-year, five-year and five-year conditional on surviving one-year relative survival were 67.2% (95% CI 66.6-67.8), 36.1% (95% CI 35.4-36.8) and 53.7% (95% CI 52.8-54.7), respectively. Five-year relative survival was 58.6% (95% CI 57.4-59.8), 37.1% (95% CI 36.1-38.1) and 20.5% (95% CI 19.1-21.9) in women aged 15-54, 55-74 and 75-99 years, respectively. The age-standardised five-year relative survival was 38.1% (95% CI 36.9-39.3) for serous tumours and 51.9% (95% CI 49.0-54.9) for mucinous cancers and the crude five-year relative survival was 85.6% (95% CI 81.2-90.0) for germ cell cancers. Overall, the age-standardised five-year relative survival increased from 32.4% (95% CI 31.7-33.2) in 1991-1993 to 36.3% (95% CI 35.5-37.0) in 2000-2003. There is a need to better understand the reasons for the wide variation in survival of ovarian cancer in Europe. Actions aiming to harmonise the protocols for therapy should contribute to narrowing the wide gap in survival and research on screening and early detection of ovarian cancer should be enforced.

Estimating prefledging survival: Allowing for brood mixing and dependence among brood mates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Thomas, Dana; Sedinger, James S.

1995-01-01

Estimates of juvenile survival from hatch to fledging provide important information on waterfowl productivity. We develop a model for estimating survival of young waterfowl from hatch to fledging. Our model enables interchange of individuals among broods and relaxes the assumption that individuals within broods have independent survival probabilities. The model requires repeated observations of individually identifiable adults and their offspring that are not individually identifiable. A modified Kaplan-Meier procedure (Pollock et al. 1989a,b) and a modified Mayfield procedure (Mayfield 1961, 1975; Johnson 1979) can be used under this general modeling framework, and survival rates and corresponding variances of the point estimators can be determined.

Quantitative Estimation of the Viability of Toxoplasma gondii Oocysts in Soil

PubMed Central

Villena, Isabelle; Dardé, Marie-Laure; Aubert, Dominique; Geers, Régine; Dupuis, Emilie; Marnef, Francine; Poulle, Marie-Lazarine; Gotteland, Cécile; Dumètre, Aurélien

2012-01-01

Toxoplasma gondii oocysts spread in the environment are an important source of toxoplasmosis for humans and animal species. Although the life expectancy of oocysts has been studied through the infectivity of inoculated soil samples, the survival dynamics of oocysts in the environment are poorly documented. The aim of this study was to quantify oocyst viability in soil over time under two rain conditions. Oocysts were placed in 54 sentinel chambers containing soil and 18 sealed water tubes, all settled in two containers filled with soil. Containers were watered to simulate rain levels of arid and wet climates and kept at stable temperature for 21.5 months. At nine sampling dates during this period, we sampled six chambers and two water tubes. Three methods were used to measure oocyst viability: microscopic counting, quantitative PCR (qPCR), and mouse inoculation. In parallel, oocysts were kept refrigerated during the same period to analyze their detectability over time. Microscopic counting, qPCR, and mouse inoculation all showed decreasing values over time and highly significant differences between the decreases under dry and damp conditions. The proportion of oocysts surviving after 100 days was estimated to be 7.4% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 5.1, 10.8) under dry conditions and 43.7% (5% CI = 35.6, 53.5) under damp conditions. The detectability of oocysts by qPCR over time decreased by 0.5 cycle threshold per 100 days. Finally, a strong correlation between qPCR results and the dose infecting 50% of mice was found; thus, qPCR results may be used as an estimate of the infectivity of soil samples. PMID:22582074

A method for estimating fall adult sex ratios from production and survival data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wight, H.M.; Heath, R.G.; Geis, A.D.

1965-01-01

This paper presents a method of utilizing data relating to the production and survival of a bird population to estimate a basic fall adult sex ratio. This basic adult sex ratio is an average value derived from average production and survival rates. It is an estimate of the average sex ratio about which the fall adult ratios will fluctuate according to annual variations in production and survival. The basic fall adult sex ratio has been calculated as an asymptotic value which is the limit of an infinite series wherein average population characteristics are used as constants. Graphs are provided that allow the determination of basic sex ratios from production and survival data of a population. Where the respective asymptote has been determined, it may be possible to estimate various production and survival rates by use of variations of the formula for estimating the asymptote.

A historical estimate of apparent survival of American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nol, Erica; Murphy, Sean P.; Cadman, Michael D.

2012-01-01

Using mark-recapture models, apparent survival was estimated from older banding and re-sighting data (1978–1983) of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) nesting on beaches and in salt marshes of coastal Virginia, USA. Oystercatchers nesting in salt marshes exhibited higher apparent survival (0.94 ±0.03) than birds nesting on beaches (0.81 ±0.06), a difference due to variation in mortality, permanent emigration, or both. Nesting on exposed barrier beaches may subject adults and young to higher risk of predation. These early estimates of adult survival for a species that is heavily monitored along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts can be used to (1) develop demographic models to determine population stability, (2) compare with estimates of adult survival from populations that have reached carrying capacity, and (3) compare with estimates of survival from other oystercatcher populations and species.

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nisbet, I.C.T.; Cam, E.

2002-01-01

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.

Nonbreeding home‐range size and survival of lesser prairie‐chickens

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Samantha G.; Haukos, David A.; Plumb, Reid T.; Lautenbach, Joseph M.; Sullins, Daniel S.; Kraft, John D.; Lautenbach, Jonathan D.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James C.

2018-01-01

The lesser prairie‐chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), a species of conservation concern with uncertain regulatory status, has experienced population declines over the past century. Most research on lesser prairie‐chickens has focused on the breeding season, with little research conducted during the nonbreeding season, a period that exerts a strong influence on demography in other upland game birds. We trapped lesser prairie‐chickens on leks and marked them with either global positioning system (GPS) satellite or very high frequency (VHF) transmitters to estimate survival and home‐range size during the nonbreeding season. We monitored 119 marked lesser prairie‐chickens in 3 study areas in Kansas, USA, from 16 September to 14 March in 2013, 2014, and 2015. We estimated home‐range size using Brownian Bridge movement models (GPS transmitters) and fixed kernel density estimators (VHF transmitters), and female survival using Kaplan–Meier known‐fate models. Average home‐range size did not differ between sexes. Estimated home‐range size was 3 times greater for individuals fitted with GPS satellite transmitters ( = 997 ha) than those with VHF transmitters ( = 286 ha), likely a result of the temporal resolution of the different transmitters. Home‐range size of GPS‐marked birds increased 2.8 times relative to the breeding season and varied by study area and year. Home‐range size was smaller in the 2013–2014 nonbreeding season ( = 495 ha) than the following 2 nonbreeding seasons ( = 1,290 ha and  = 1,158 ha), corresponding with drought conditions of 2013, which were alleviated in following years. Female survival () was high relative to breeding season estimates, and did not differ by study area or year ( = 0.73 ± 0.04 [SE]). Future management could remain focused on the breeding season because nonbreeding survival was 39–44% greater than the previous breeding season; however, considerations of total space needs would benefit lesser prairie‐chickens by accounting for the greater spatial requirements during the nonbreeding season. 

Relative effects of survival and reproduction on the population dynamics of emperor geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Rockwell, Robert F.; Petersen, Margaret R.

1997-01-01

Populations of emperor geese (Chen canagica) in Alaska declined sometime between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s and have increased little since. To promote recovery of this species to former levels, managers need to know how much their perturbations of survival and/or reproduction would affect population growth rate (λ). We constructed an individual-based population model to evaluate the relative effect of altering mean values of various survival and reproductive parameters on λ and fall age structure (AS, defined as the proportion of juv), assuming additive rather than compensatory relations among parameters. Altering survival of adults had markedly greater relative effects on λ than did equally proportionate changes in either juvenile survival or reproductive parameters. We found the opposite pattern for relative effects on AS. Due to concerns about bias in the initial parameter estimates used in our model, we used 5 additional sets of parameter estimates with this model structure. We found that estimates of survival based on aerial survey data gathered each fall resulted in models that corresponded more closely to independent estimates of λ than did models that used mark-recapture estimates of survival. This disparity suggests that mark-recapture estimates of survival are biased low. To further explore how parameter estimates affected estimates of λ, we used values of survival and reproduction found in other goose species, and we examined the effect of an hypothesized correlation between an individual's clutch size and the subsequent survival of her young. The rank order of parameters in their relative effects on λ was consistent for all 6 parameter sets we examined. The observed variation in relative effects on λ among the 6 parameter sets is indicative of how relative effects on λ may vary among goose populations. With this knowledge of the relative effects of survival and reproductive parameters on λ, managers can make more informed decisions about which parameters to influence through management or to target for future study.

Vascular Disease, ESRD, and Death: Interpreting Competing Risk Analyses

PubMed Central

Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989–1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20–2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors. PMID:22859747

Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L; Kucirka, Lauren M; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J

2012-10-01

Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.

The lyme disease pathogen has no effect on the survival of its rodent reservoir host.

PubMed

Voordouw, Maarten J; Lachish, Shelly; Dolan, Marc C

2015-01-01

Zoonotic pathogens that cause devastating morbidity and mortality in humans may be relatively harmless in their natural reservoir hosts. The tick-borne bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi causes Lyme disease in humans but few studies have investigated whether this pathogen reduces the fitness of its reservoir hosts under natural conditions. We analyzed four years of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data on a population of white-footed mice, Peromyscus leucopus, to test whether B. burgdorferi and its tick vector affect the survival of this important reservoir host. We used a multi-state CMR approach to model mouse survival and mouse infection rates as a function of a variety of ecologically relevant explanatory factors. We found no effect of B. burgdorferi infection or tick burden on the survival of P. leucopus. Our estimates of the probability of infection varied by an order of magnitude (0.051 to 0.535) and were consistent with our understanding of Lyme disease in the Northeastern United States. B. burgdorferi establishes a chronic avirulent infection in their rodent reservoir hosts because this pathogen depends on rodent mobility to achieve transmission to its sedentary tick vector. The estimates of B. burgdorferi infection risk will facilitate future theoretical studies on the epidemiology of Lyme disease.

Annual survival estimation of migratory songbirds confounded by incomplete breeding site-fidelity: Study designs that may help

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marshall, M.R.; Diefenbach, D.R.; Wood, L.A.; Cooper, R.J.

2004-01-01

Many species of bird exhibit varying degrees of site-fidelity to the previous year's territory or breeding area, a phenomenon we refer to as incomplete breeding site-fidelity. If the territory they occupy is located beyond the bounds of the study area or search area (i.e., they have emigrated from the study area), the bird will go undetected and is therefore indistinguishable from dead individuals in capture-mark-recapture studies. Differential emigration rates confound inferences regarding differences in survival between sexes and among species if apparent survival rates are used as estimates of true survival. Moreover, the bias introduced by using apparent survival rates for true survival rates can have profound effects on the predictions of population persistence through time, source/sink dynamics, and other aspects of life-history theory. We investigated four study design and analysis approaches that result in apparent survival estimates that are closer to true survival estimates. Our motivation for this research stemmed from a multi-year capture-recapture study of Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea) on multiple study plots within a larger landscape of suitable breeding habitat where substantial inter-annual movements of marked individuals among neighboring study plots was documented. We wished to quantify the effects of this type of movement on annual survival estimation. The first two study designs we investigated involved marking birds in a core area and resighting them in the core as well as an area surrounding the core. For the first of these two designs, we demonstrated that as the resighting area surrounding the core gets progressively larger, and more "emigrants" are resighted, apparent survival estimates begin to approximate true survival rates (bias < 0.01). However, given observed inter-annual movements of birds, it is likely to be logistically impractical to resight birds on sufficiently large surrounding areas to minimize bias. Therefore, as an alternative protocol, we analyzed the data with subsets of three progressively larger areas surrounding the core. The data subsets provided four estimates of apparent survival that asymptotically approached true survival. This study design and analytical approach is likely to be logistically feasible in field settings and yields estimates of true survival unbiased (bias < 0.03) by incomplete breeding site-fidelity over a range of inter-annual territory movement patterns. The third approach we investigated used a robust design data collection and analysis approach. This approach resulted in estimates of survival that were unbiased (bias < 0.02), but were very imprecise and likely would not yield reliable estimates in field situations. The fourth approach utilized a fixed study area size, but modeled detection probability as a function of bird proximity to the study plot boundary (e.g., those birds closest to the edge are more likely to emigrate). This approach also resulted in estimates of survival that were unbiased (bias < 0.02), but because the individual covariates were normalized, the average capture probability was 0.50, and thus did not provide an accurate estimate of the true capture probability. Our results show that the core-area with surrounding resight-only can provide estimates of survival that are not biased by the effects of incomplete breeding site-fidelity. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

ESTIMATING PERSON-CENTERED TREATMENT (PeT) EFFECTS USING INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES: AN APPLICATION TO EVALUATING PROSTATE CANCER TREATMENTS

PubMed Central

BASU, ANIRBAN

2014-01-01

SUMMARY This paper builds on the methods of local instrumental variables developed by Heckman and Vytlacil (1999, 2001, 2005) to estimate person-centered treatment (PeT) effects that are conditioned on the person’s observed characteristics and averaged over the potential conditional distribution of unobserved characteristics that lead them to their observed treatment choices. PeT effects are more individualized than conditional treatment effects from a randomized setting with the same observed characteristics. PeT effects can be easily aggregated to construct any of the mean treatment effect parameters and, more importantly, are well suited to comprehend individual-level treatment effect heterogeneity. The paper presents the theory behind PeT effects, and applies it to study the variation in individual-level comparative effects of prostate cancer treatments on overall survival and costs. PMID:25620844

A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data

PubMed Central

Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory. PMID:24223450

A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data.

PubMed

Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory.

Summary of Survival Data from Juvenile Coho Salmon in the Klamath River, Northern California, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Juhnke, Steven; Hansel, Hal C.

2009-01-01

A study to estimate the effects of Iron Gate Dam discharge on ESA-listed juvenile coho salmon during their seaward migration to the ocean was begun in 2005. Estimates of survival through various reaches of river downstream from the dam were completed in 2006, 2007, and 2008 as part of this process. This report describes the estimates of survival during 2008, and is a complement to similar reports from 2006 and 2007. In each year, a series of models were evaluated to determine apparent survival and recapture probabilities of radio-tagged fish in several river reaches between Iron Gate Hatchery at river kilometer 309 and a site at river kilometer 33. These results indicate most trends in survival among reaches were similar to those from 2006 and 2007, but the magnitudes of the estimated survivals were lower in 2008. The differences in survivals from Iron Gate Hatchery to river kilometer 33 in 2006 (0.653 SE 0.039), 2007 (0.497 SE 0.044), and 2008 (0.406 SE 0.032) were caused primarily by differences in survival upstream from the Scott River. This report is intended as a brief description of the survivals estimated from the fish released in 2008 to be used by others interested in the data.

The utility of harvest recoveries of marked individuals to assess polar bear (Ursus maritimus) survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peacock, Elizabeth; Laake, Jeff; Laidre, Kristin L.; Born, Erik W.; Atkinson, Stephen N.

2012-01-01

Management of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations requires the periodic assessment of life history metrics such as survival rate. This information is frequently obtained during short-term capture and marking efforts (e.g., over the course of three years) that result in hundreds of marked bears remaining in the population after active marking is finished. Using 10 additional years of harvest recovery subsequent to a period of active marking, we provide updated estimates of annual survival for polar bears in the Baffin Bay population of Greenland and Canada. Our analysis suggests a decline in survival of polar bears since the period of active marking that ended in 1997; some of the decline in survival can likely be attributed to a decline in springtime ice concentration over the continental shelf of Baffin Island. The variance around the survival estimates is comparatively high because of the declining number of marks available; therefore, results must be interpreted with caution. The variance of the estimates of survival increased most substantially in the sixth year post-marking. When survival estimates calculated with recovery-only and recapture-recovery data sets from the period of active marking were compared, survival rates were indistinguishable. However, for the period when fewer marks were available, survival estimates were lower using the recovery-only data set, which indicates that part of the decline we detected for 2003 – 09 may be due to using only harvest recovery data. Nevertheless, the decline in the estimates of survival is consistent with population projections derived from harvest numbers and earlier vital rates, as well as with an observed decline in the extent of sea ice habitat.

Survival of young American alligators on a Florida lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, A.R.; Hines, T.C.; Abercrombie, C.L.; Nichols, J.D.

1987-01-01

A capture-recapture study was conducted on Orange Lake, Florida, from 1979 through 1984 to estimate survival rates of young in an American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) populations. Hatchlings remained together in sibling groups (pods) for at least their 1st year and then began to disperse during their 2nd spring and summer. Mortality through mid-November of their 1st year was negligible. Jolly-Seber (JS) survival estimates of hatchlings for 6 and 12 months were 76 and 41%, respectively. The 2-year JS estimate for the 1980 cohort was 8%. Minimum-Known-Alive (MKA) survival values were 72 and 46% of JS estimates for 6 months and 1 year of age. Survival during the 2nd 6 months of life (spring-summer) tended to be lower than survival during the 1st 6 months (fall-winter).

Survival of Escherichia coli on Lettuce under Field Conditions Encountered in the Northeastern United States.

PubMed

Weller, Daniel L; Kovac, Jasna; Roof, Sherry; Kent, David J; Tokman, Jeffrey I; Kowalcyk, Barbara; Oryang, David; Ivanek, Renata; Aceituno, Anna; Sroka, Christopher; Wiedmann, Martin

2017-07-01

Although wildlife intrusion and untreated manure have been associated with microbial contamination of produce, relatively few studies have examined the survival of Escherichia coli on produce under field conditions following contamination (e.g., via splash from wildlife feces). This experimental study was performed to estimate the die-off rate of E. coli on preharvest lettuce following contamination with a fecal slurry. During August 2015, field-grown lettuce was inoculated via pipette with a fecal slurry that was spiked with a three-strain cocktail of rifampin-resistant nonpathogenic E. coli. Ten lettuce heads were harvested at each of 13 time points following inoculation (0, 2.5, 5, and 24 h after inoculation and every 24 h thereafter until day 10). The most probable number (MPN) of E. coli on each lettuce head was determined, and die-off rates were estimated. The relationship between sample time and the log MPN of E. coli per head was modeled using a segmented linear model. This model had a breakpoint at 106 h (95% confidence interval = 69, 142 h) after inoculation, with a daily decrease of 0.70 and 0.19 log MPN for 0 to 106 h and 106 to 240 h following inoculation, respectively. These findings are consistent with die-off rates obtained in similar studies that assessed E. coli survival on produce following irrigation. Overall, these findings provide die-off rates for E. coli on lettuce that can be used in future quantitative risk assessments.

A water marker monitored by satellites to predict seasonal endemic cholera.

PubMed

Jutla, Antarpreet; Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Huq, Anwar; Faruque, Abu Syed Golam; Colwell, Rita; Islam, Shafiqul

2013-01-01

The ability to predict an occurrence of cholera, a water-related disease, offers a significant public health advantage. Satellite based estimates of chlorophyll, a surrogate for plankton abundance, have been linked to cholera incidence. However, cholera bacteria can survive under a variety of coastal ecological conditions, thus constraining the predictive ability of the chlorophyll, since it provides only an estimate of greenness of seawater. Here, a new remote sensing based index is proposed: Satellite Water Marker (SWM), which estimates condition of coastal water, based on observed variability in the difference between blue (412 nm) and green (555 nm) wavelengths that can be related to seasonal cholera incidence. The index is bounded between physically separable wavelengths for relatively clear (blue) and turbid (green) water. Using SWM, prediction of cholera with reasonable accuracy, with at least two month in advance, can potentially be achieved in the endemic coastal regions.

Nutrition advocacy and national development: the PROFILES programme and its application.

PubMed Central

Burkhalter, B. R.; Abel, E.; Aguayo, V.; Diene, S. M.; Parlato, M. B.; Ross, J. S.

1999-01-01

Investment in nutritional programmes can contribute to economic growth and is cost-effective in improving child survival and development. In order to communicate this to decision-makers, the PROFILES nutrition advocacy and policy development programme was applied in certain developing countries. Effective advocacy is necessary to generate financial and political support for scaling up from small pilot projects and maintaining successful national programmes. The programme uses scientific knowledge to estimate development indicators such as mortality, morbidity, fertility, school performance and labour productivity from the size and nutritional condition of populations. Changes in nutritional condition are estimated from the costs, coverage and effectiveness of proposed programmes. In Bangladesh this approach helped to gain approval and funding for a major nutrition programme. PROFILES helped to promote the nutrition component of an early childhood development programme in the Philippines, and to make nutrition a top priority in Ghana's new national child survival strategy. The application of PROFILES in these and other countries has been supported by the United States Agency for International Development, the United Nations Children's Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Micronutrient Initiative and other bodies. PMID:10361758

Generalized Redistribute-to-the-Right Algorithm: Application to the Analysis of Censored Cost Data

PubMed Central

CHEN, SHUAI; ZHAO, HONGWEI

2013-01-01

Medical cost estimation is a challenging task when censoring of data is present. Although researchers have proposed methods for estimating mean costs, these are often derived from theory and are not always easy to understand. We provide an alternative method, based on a replace-from-the-right algorithm, for estimating mean costs more efficiently. We show that our estimator is equivalent to an existing one that is based on the inverse probability weighting principle and semiparametric efficiency theory. We also propose an alternative method for estimating the survival function of costs, based on the redistribute-to-the-right algorithm, that was originally used for explaining the Kaplan–Meier estimator. We show that this second proposed estimator is equivalent to a simple weighted survival estimator of costs. Finally, we develop a more efficient survival estimator of costs, using the same redistribute-to-the-right principle. This estimator is naturally monotone, more efficient than some existing survival estimators, and has a quite small bias in many realistic settings. We conduct numerical studies to examine the finite sample property of the survival estimators for costs, and show that our new estimator has small mean squared errors when the sample size is not too large. We apply both existing and new estimators to a data example from a randomized cardiovascular clinical trial. PMID:24403869

Survival estimation and the effects of dependency among animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, James S.; Rexstad, Eric A.

1995-01-01

Survival models assume that fates of individuals are independent, yet the robustness of this assumption has been poorly quantified. We examine how empirically derived estimates of the variance of survival rates are affected by dependency in survival probability among individuals. We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate known amounts of dependency among pairs of individuals and analyzed these data with Kaplan-Meier and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Dependency significantly increased these empirical variances as compared to theoretically derived estimates of variance from the same populations. Using resighting data from 168 pairs of black brant, we used a resampling procedure and program RELEASE to estimate empirical and mean theoretical variances. We estimated that the relationship between paired individuals caused the empirical variance of the survival rate to be 155% larger than the empirical variance for unpaired individuals. Monte Carlo simulations and use of this resampling strategy can provide investigators with information on how robust their data are to this common assumption of independent survival probabilities.

Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) parasite-host interactions in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bence, James R.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Christie, Gavin C.; Cochran, Phillip A.; Ebener, Mark P.; Koonce, Joseph F.; Rutter, Michael A.; Swink, William D.

2003-01-01

Prediction of how host mortality responds to efforts to control sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) is central to the integrated management strategy for sea lamprey (IMSL) in the Great Lakes. A parasite-host submodel is used as part of this strategy, and this includes a type-2 multi-species functional response, a developmental response, but no numerical response. General patterns of host species and size selection are consistent with the model assumptions, but some observations appear to diverge. For example, some patterns in sea lamprey marking on hosts suggest increases in selectivity for less preferred hosts and lower host survival when preferred hosts are scarce. Nevertheless, many of the IMSL assumptions may be adequate under conditions targeted by fish community objectives. Of great concern is the possibility that the survival of young parasites (parasitic-phase sea lampreys) varies substantially among lakes or over time. Joint analysis of abundance estimates for parasites being produced in streams and returning spawners could address this. Data on sea lamprey marks is a critical source of information on sea lamprey activity and potential effects. Theory connecting observed marks to sea lamprey feeding activity and host mortality is reviewed. Uncertainties regarding healing and attachment times, the probability of hosts surviving attacks, and problems in consistent classification of marks have led to widely divergent estimates of damages caused by sea lamprey. Laboratory and field studies are recommended to provide a firmer linkage between host blood loss, host mortality, and observed marks on surviving hosts, so as to improve estimates of damage.

An evaluation of the seven-day toxicity test with Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lussier, S.M.; Kuhn, A.; Comeleo, R.

The 7-d test measuring survival, growth, and fecundity of Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia) was developed for estimating the chronic toxicity of effluents and associated receiving waters for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permits. Currently, this test and its derivatives are also used in toxicity identification evaluation (TIE), risk assessment, and other applications. To evaluate the relative sensitivity of three measurement endpoints (survival, growth, and fecundity), the authors analyzed results from 115 tests with effluents, organic or inorganic chemicals, and receiving waters suspected of being toxic. Controls for 78 of these achieved acceptable survival and growth. Fifty of these 78more » tests also achieved acceptable control fecundity. In the 47 tests with significant effects, survival was the most sensitive response in 57%, fecundity in 30%, and growth in 30%. There was little duplication in responses. Improving pretest holding conditions by decreasing the maximum density from {approximately}20 to 10 animals/L and increasing the temperature from {approximately}26 C to a range of 26 to 27 C improved the growth and fecundity in controls. Although the percentage of tests achieving acceptable control survival and growth decreased from 93 to 86%, the percentage achieving acceptable fecundity in controls increased from 60 to 97%. Seasonal differences in fecundity were detected among control groups. Although variable, fecundity is often the most sensitive measure of response. The 7-d mysid test estimates the chronic toxicity of effluents most effectively when all three endpoints are used.« less

Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

2013-01-01

Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

["That flesh, pink and perishable": analysis of disease-free survival analysis in breast cancer in Gipuzkoa (Spain) in the presence of competing risks].

PubMed

Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Larrañaga, Nerea; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Mitxelena, María José; Basterretxea, Mikel

2009-01-01

To analyze time of disease-free survival and relative survival in women diagnosed with breast cancer in the province of Gipuzkoa within the context of competing risks by assessing differences between the direct use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement method on the one hand, and relative survival on the other. All registered breast cancer cases in Gipuzkoa in 1995 and 1996 with stages other than stage IV were included. An 8-year follow-up for recurrence and a 10-year follow-up for survival were performed. Time of disease-free survival was studied by the multiple decrement model. Observed survival and survival corrected by the expected mortality in the population (relative survival) were also studied. Estimation of the probability of recurrence at 8 years with the multiple decrement method was 8.8% lower than that obtained with the Kaplan-Meier method. The difference between the observed and relative survival rates at 10 years was 10.8%. Both results show how, in this case, the Kaplan-Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality from the disease. Two issues are often overlooked when performing survival analyses: firstly, because of the lack of independence between survival time and censoring time, the results obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator are uninterpretable; secondly, it is an incontrovertible fact that one way or another, everyone causes failures. In this approach, survival analyses must take into account the probability of failure in the general population of reference. The results obtained in this study show that superficial use of the Kaplan Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality caused by the disease.

Benefits of marriage on relative and conditional relative cancer survival differ between males and females in the USA.

PubMed

Merrill, Ray M; Johnson, Erin

2017-10-01

The purpose of the paper is to assess the influence of marital status on conditional relative survival of cancer according to sex. Analyses involved 779,978 males and 1,032,868 females diagnosed with 1 of 13 cancer types between 2000 and 2008, and followed through 2013. Data are from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and tumor stage. Five-year relative survival conditional on years already survived is higher among married patients with less lethal cancers (oral cavity and pharynx, colon and rectum, breast, urinary bladder, kidney and renal pelvis, melanoma of the skin, thyroid, lymphoma). For more lethal cancers, married patients have similar (liver, lung and bronchus, pancreas, leukemia) or poorer (brain and other nervous system) cancer survival. Separated/divorced or widowed patients have the lowest conditional relative survival rates. For most cancers, 5-year cancer relative survival rates conditional on time already survived through 5 years approach 70 to 90% of that for the general population. The beneficial effect of marriage on survival decreases with years already survived. Superior conditional relative survival rates in females decrease with time already survived and are less pronounced in married patients. Five-year relative survival rates improve with time already survived. The benefits of marriage on conditional relative survival are greater for less lethal cancers. Greater 5-year conditional relative survival rates in females narrow with time already survived and are less pronounced in married patients. Conditional relative survival rates of cancer can lead to more informed decisions and understanding regarding treatment and prognosis.

Nonparametric analysis of bivariate gap time with competing risks.

PubMed

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Wang, Chenguang; Wang, Mei-Cheng

2016-09-01

This article considers nonparametric methods for studying recurrent disease and death with competing risks. We first point out that comparisons based on the well-known cumulative incidence function can be confounded by different prevalence rates of the competing events, and that comparisons of the conditional distribution of the survival time given the failure event type are more relevant for investigating the prognosis of different patterns of recurrence disease. We then propose nonparametric estimators for the conditional cumulative incidence function as well as the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence function for the bivariate gap times, that is, the time to disease recurrence and the residual lifetime after recurrence. To quantify the association between the two gap times in the competing risks setting, a modified Kendall's tau statistic is proposed. The proposed estimators for the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence distribution and the association measure account for the induced dependent censoring for the second gap time. Uniform consistency and weak convergence of the proposed estimators are established. Hypothesis testing procedures for two-sample comparisons are discussed. Numerical simulation studies with practical sample sizes are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed nonparametric estimators and tests. An application to data from a pancreatic cancer study is presented to illustrate the methods developed in this article. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Using Survival Analysis to Improve Estimates of Life Year Gains in Policy Evaluations.

PubMed

Meacock, Rachel; Sutton, Matt; Kristensen, Søren Rud; Harrison, Mark

2017-05-01

Policy evaluations taking a lifetime horizon have converted estimated changes in short-term mortality to expected life year gains using general population life expectancy. However, the life expectancy of the affected patients may differ from the general population. In trials, survival models are commonly used to extrapolate life year gains. The objective was to demonstrate the feasibility and materiality of using parametric survival models to extrapolate future survival in health care policy evaluations. We used our previous cost-effectiveness analysis of a pay-for-performance program as a motivating example. We first used the cohort of patients admitted prior to the program to compare 3 methods for estimating remaining life expectancy. We then used a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the life year gains associated with the program using general population life expectancy and survival models. Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics was utilized for patients admitted to hospitals in England for pneumonia between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 and between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2010, and linked to death records for the period from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2011. In our cohort of patients, using parametric survival models rather than general population life expectancy figures reduced the estimated mean life years remaining by 30% (9.19 v. 13.15 years, respectively). However, the estimated mean life year gains associated with the program are larger using survival models (0.380 years) compared to using general population life expectancy (0.154 years). Using general population life expectancy to estimate the impact of health care policies can overestimate life expectancy but underestimate the impact of policies on life year gains. Using a longer follow-up period improved the accuracy of estimated survival and program impact considerably.

Effects of environmental conditions on growth and survival of Salmonella in pasteurized whole egg.

PubMed

Jakočiūnė, Džiuginta; Bisgaard, Magne; Hervé, Gaëlle; Protais, Jocelyne; Olsen, John Elmerdahl; Chemaly, Marianne

2014-08-01

This study investigated the influence of three parameters (time, temperature and NaCl concentration) on survival and four parameters (temperature, NaCl and lysozyme concentrations and pH) on growth of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis) in pasteurized whole egg (PWE). Doehlert uniform shell design was employed to choose conditions for trials and data was fitted to polynomial models and were presented as estimated response surfaces. A model for prediction of reduction of S. Enteritidis in PWE within temperatures between 50 and 58°C, NaCl concentrations of 0-12%, and heating times between 30 and 210s and a model for prediction of growth rate of S. Enteritidis in PWE in the temperature range of 1-25°C, NaCl concentration of 0-12%, pH between 5 and 9, and lysozyme concentrations of 107-1007 U/mg proteins were developed. The maximum reduction condition was 58°C, 0% of NaCl at a fixed heating time of 120s, while maximum growth rate was estimated at 25°C and 0% of NaCl. pH and lysozyme concentration were shown not to influence growth performance significantly in the range of values studied. Results inform industry of the optimal pasteurization and storage parameters for liquid whole egg. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictors of lung transplant survival in eurotransplant.

PubMed

Smits, J M A; Mertens, B J A; Van Houwelingen, H C; Haverich, A; Persijn, G G; Laufer, G

2003-11-01

This study was undertaken to assess the influence of patient/donor and center factors on lung transplantation outcome. Outcomes of all consecutive first cadaveric lung transplants performed at 21 Eurotransplant centers in 1997-99 were analyzed. The risk-adjusted center effect on mortality was estimated. A Cox model was built including donor and recipient age and gender, primary disease, HLA mismatches, patient's residence, cold ischemic time, donor's cause of death, serum creatinine, type of lung transplant, respiratory support status, clinical condition and percentage predicted FEV1. The center effect was calculated (expressed as the standardized difference between the observed and expected survival rates), and empirical and full Bayes methods were applied to evaluate between-center differences. A total of 590 adults underwent lung transplantation. The primary disease (p=0.01), HLA-mismatches (p = 0.02), clinical condition(p < 0.0001) and the patient's respiratory support status (p = 0.05) were significantly associated with survival. After adjusting for case-mix, no between-center differences could be found. An in-depth empirical Bayes analysis showed the between-center variation to be zero. Similar results were obtained from the full Bayes analysis. Based on these data, there is no scientific basis to support a hypothesis of possible association between center volume and lung survival rates.

Genetic Introgression and the Survival of Florida Panther Kittens

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Onorato, David P.; Nichols, James D.; Johnson, Warren E.; Roelke, Melody E.; O’Brien, Stephen J.; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K.

2010-01-01

Estimates of survival for the young of a species are critical for population models. These models can often be improved by determining the effects of management actions and population abundance on this demographic parameter. We used multiple sources of data collected during 1982-2008 and a live recapture-dead recovery modeling framework to estimate and model survival of Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) kittens (age 0 – 1 year). Overall, annual survival of Florida panther kittens was 0.323 ± 0.071 (SE), which was lower than estimates used in previous population models. In 1995, female pumas from Texas (P. c. stanleyana) were released into occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression program to restore genetic variability. We found that kitten survival generally increased with degree of admixture: F1 admixed and backcrossed to Texas kittens survived better than canonical Florida panther and backcrossed to canonical kittens. Average heterozygosity positively influenced kitten and older panther survival, whereas index of panther abundance negatively influenced kitten survival. Our results provide strong evidence for the positive population-level impact of genetic introgression on Florida panthers. Our approach to integrate data from multiple sources was effective at improving robustness as well as precision of estimates of Florida panther kitten survival, and can be useful in estimating vital rates for other elusive species with sparse data. PMID:21113436

Genetic introgression and the survival of Florida panther kittens

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Onorato, David P.; Nichols, James D.; Johnson, Warren E.; Roelke, Melody E.; O'Brien, Stephen J.; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K.

2010-01-01

Estimates of survival for the young of a species are critical for population models. These models can often be improved by determining the effects of management actions and population abundance on this demographic parameter. We used multiple sources of data collected during 1982–2008 and a live-recapture dead-recovery modeling framework to estimate and model survival of Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) kittens (age 0–1 year). Overall, annual survival of Florida panther kittens was 0.323 ± 0.071 (SE), which was lower than estimates used in previous population models. In 1995, female pumas from Texas (P. c. stanleyana) were released into occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression program to restore genetic variability. We found that kitten survival generally increased with degree of admixture: F1 admixed and backcrossed to Texas kittens survived better than canonical Florida panther and backcrossed to canonical kittens. Average heterozygosity positively influenced kitten and older panther survival, whereas index of panther abundance negatively influenced kitten survival. Our results provide strong evidence for the positive population-level impact of genetic introgression on Florida panthers. Our approach to integrate data from multiple sources was effective at improving robustness as well as precision of estimates of Florida panther kitten survival, and can be useful in estimating vital rates for other elusive species with sparse data.

Do transmitters affect survival and body condition of American beavers Castor canadensis?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Joshua B.; Windels, Steve K.; Wolf, Tiffany; Klaver, Robert W.; Belant, Jerrold L.

2016-01-01

One key assumption often inferred with using radio-equipped individuals is that the transmitter has no effect on the metric of interest. To evaluate this assumption, we used a known fate model to assess the effect of transmitter type (i.e. tail-mounted or peritoneal implant) on short-term (one year) survival and a joint live—dead recovery model and results from a mark—recapture study to compare long-term (eight years) survival and body condition of ear-tagged only American beavers Castor canadensis to those equipped with radio transmitters in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, USA. Short-term (1-year) survival was not influenced by transmitter type (wi = 0.64). Over the 8-year study period, annual survival was similar between transmitter-equipped beavers (tail-mounted and implant transmitters combined; 0.76; 95% CI = 0.45–0.91) versus ear-tagged only (0.78; 95% CI = 0.45–0.93). Additionally, we found no difference in weight gain (t9 = 0.25, p = 0.80) or tail area (t11 = 1.25, p = 0.24) from spring to summer between the two groups. In contrast, winter weight loss (t22 = - 2.03, p = 0.05) and tail area decrease (t30 = - 3.04, p = 0.01) was greater for transmitterequipped (weight = - 3.09 kg, SE = 0.55; tail area = - 33.71 cm2, SE = 4.80) than ear-tagged only (weight = - 1.80 kg, SE = 0.33; tail area = - 12.38 cm2, SE = 5.13) beavers. Our results generally support the continued use of transmitters on beavers for estimating demographic parameters, although we recommend additional assessments of transmitter effects under different environmental conditions.

Estimation of brood and nest survival: Comparative methods in the presence of heterogeneity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; Schmutz, Joel A.

2001-01-01

The Mayfield method has been widely used for estimating survival of nests and young animals, especially when data are collected at irregular observation intervals. However, this method assumes survival is constant throughout the study period, which often ignores biologically relevant variation and may lead to biased survival estimates. We examined the bias and accuracy of 1 modification to the Mayfield method that allows for temporal variation in survival, and we developed and similarly tested 2 additional methods. One of these 2 new methods is simply an iterative extension of Klett and Johnson's method, which we refer to as the Iterative Mayfield method and bears similarity to Kaplan-Meier methods. The other method uses maximum likelihood techniques for estimation and is best applied to survival of animals in groups or families, rather than as independent individuals. We also examined how robust these estimators are to heterogeneity in the data, which can arise from such sources as dependent survival probabilities among siblings, inherent differences among families, and adoption. Testing of estimator performance with respect to bias, accuracy, and heterogeneity was done using simulations that mimicked a study of survival of emperor goose (Chen canagica) goslings. Assuming constant survival for inappropriately long periods of time or use of Klett and Johnson's methods resulted in large bias or poor accuracy (often >5% bias or root mean square error) compared to our Iterative Mayfield or maximum likelihood methods. Overall, estimator performance was slightly better with our Iterative Mayfield than our maximum likelihood method, but the maximum likelihood method provides a more rigorous framework for testing covariates and explicity models a heterogeneity factor. We demonstrated use of all estimators with data from emperor goose goslings. We advocate that future studies use the new methods outlined here rather than the traditional Mayfield method or its previous modifications.

Life-history implications of large-scale spatial variation in adult survival of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Chelgren, Nathan; Lindberg, Mark S.; Obritchkewitch, Tim; Kirk, Morgan T.; Martin, Philip D.; Anderson, Betty A.; Ward, David H.

2002-01-01

We used capture-recapture methods to estimate adult survival rates for adult female Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; hereafter “brant”) from three colonies in Alaska, two on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, and one on Alaska's Arctic coast. Costs of migration and reproductive effort varied among those colonies, enabling us to examine variation in survival in relation to variation in these other variables. We used the Barker model in program MARK to estimate true annual survival for brant from the three colonies. Models allowing for spatial variation in survival were among the most parsimonious models but were indistinguishable from a model with no spatial variation. Point estimates of annual survival were slightly higher for brant from the Arctic (0.90 ± 0.036) than for brant from either Tutakoke River (0.85 ± 0.004) or Kokechik Bay (0.86 ± 0.011). Thus, our survival estimates do not support a hypothesis that the cost of longer migrations or harvest experienced by brant from the Arctic reduced their annual survival relative to brant from the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Spatial variation in survival provides weak support for life-history theory because brant from the region with lower reproductive investment had slightly higher survival.

Behavior, passage, and downstream migration of juvenile Chinook salmon from Detroit Reservoir to Portland, Oregon, 2014–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kock, Tobias J.; Beeman, John W.; Hansen, Amy C.; Hansel, Hal C.; Hansen, Gabriel S.; Hatton, Tyson W.; Kofoot, Eric E.; Sholtis, Matthew D.; Sprando, Jamie M.

2015-11-16

A Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model was developed to provide reach-specific survival estimates for juvenile Chinook salmon. A portion of the tagged population overwintered in the Willamette River Basin and outmigrated several months after release. As a result, survival estimates from the model would have been negatively biased by factors such as acoustic tag failure and tag loss. Data from laboratory studies were incorporated into the model to provide survival estimates that accounted for these factors. In the North Santiam River between Minto Dam and the Bennett Dam complex, a distance of 37.2 kilometers, survival was estimated to be 0.844 (95-percent confidence interval 0.795–0.893). The survival estimate for the 203.7 kilometer reach between the Bennett Dam complex and Portland, Oregon, was 0.279 (95-percent confidence interval 0.234–0.324), and included portions of the North Santiam, Santiam, and Willamette Rivers. The cumulative survival estimate in the 240.9 kilometer reach from the Minto Dam tailrace to Portland was 0.236 (95-percent confidence interval 0.197–0.275).

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Rockwell, Robert F.

1998-01-01

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

Development of National Program of Cancer Registries SAS Tool for Population-Based Cancer Relative Survival Analysis.

PubMed

Dong, Xing; Zhang, Kevin; Ren, Yuan; Wilson, Reda; O'Neil, Mary Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Studying population-based cancer survival by leveraging the high-quality cancer incidence data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) can offer valuable insight into the cancer burden and impact in the United States. We describe the development and validation of a SASmacro tool that calculates population-based cancer site-specific relative survival estimates comparable to those obtained through SEER*Stat. The NPCR relative survival analysis SAS tool (NPCR SAS tool) was developed based on the relative survival method and SAS macros developed by Paul Dickman. NPCR cancer incidence data from 25 states submitted in November 2012 were used, specifically cases diagnosed from 2003 to 2010 with follow-up through 2010. Decennial and annual complete life tables published by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for 2000 through 2009 were used. To assess comparability between the 2 tools, 5-year relative survival rates were calculated for 25 cancer sites by sex, race, and age group using the NPCR SAS tool and the National Cancer Institute's SEER*Stat 8.1.5 software. A module to create data files for SEER*Stat was also developed for the NPCR SAS tool. Comparison of the results produced by both SAS and SEER*Stat showed comparable and reliable relative survival estimates for NPCR data. For a majority of the sites, the net differences between the NPCR SAS tool and SEER*Stat-produced relative survival estimates ranged from -0.1% to 0.1%. The estimated standard errors were highly comparable between the 2 tools as well. The NPCR SAS tool will allow researchers to accurately estimate cancer 5-year relative survival estimates that are comparable to those produced by SEER*Stat for NPCR data. Comparison of output from the NPCR SAS tool and SEER*Stat provided additional quality control capabilities for evaluating data prior to producing NPCR relative survival estimates.

Adaptation or recovery after health shocks? Evidence using subjective and objective health measures.

PubMed

Baji, Petra; Bíró, Anikó

2018-05-01

In this paper, we analyse the effect of an onset of a health shock on subjective survival probability and compare it with objective survival probability and self-reported health measures. In particular, we are interested in whether expectations of people respond to health shocks and whether these follow the evolution of objective life expectations and self-reported health measures over time. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, we estimate fixed effects models of adaptation for the objective and subjective survival probabilities and for some self-reported health measures. The results show that after cancer diagnosis, conditional on surviving, both the objective and subjective longevity and self-reported health measures drift back to the before diagnosis trajectories. For stroke and heart attack, in spite of their persistent negative effect on survival, subjective life expectations and self-reported health measures seem to indicate only a transient effect of the health shock. The differences between the objective and subjective measures are in line with the concept of adaptation. We discuss the policy implications of our results. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Survival and Associated Risk Factors for Mortality Among Infants with Critical Congenital Heart Disease in a Developing Country.

PubMed

Mat Bah, Mohd Nizam; Sapian, Mohd Hanafi; Jamil, Mohammad Tamim; Alias, Amelia; Zahari, Norazah

2018-05-14

Critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. However, data on survival of CCHD and the risk factors associated with its mortality are limited. This study examined CCHD survival and the risk factors for CCHD mortality. Using a retrospective cohort study of infants born with CCHD from 2006 to 2015, survival over 10 years was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the risk factors for mortality were analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. A total of 491 CCHD cases were included in the study, with an overall mortality rate of 34.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 30.6-39.2). The intervention/surgical mortality rate was 9.8% ≤ 30 days and 11.5% > 30 days after surgery, and 17% died before surgery or intervention. The median age at death was 2.7 months [first quartile: 1 month, third quartile: 7.3 months]. The CCHD survival rate was 90.4% (95% CI 89-91.8%) at 1 month, 69.3% (95% CI 67.2-71.4%) at 1 year, 63.4% (95% CI 61.1-65.7%) at 5 years, and 61.4% (95% CI 58.9-63.9%) at 10 years. Weight of < 2 kg at diagnosis, associated syndromes, poor pre-operative condition, and non-duct-dependent CCHD were independent risk factors for poor survival, with hazard ratios of 2.61, 2.10, 2.22, and 1.70, respectively. CCHD is associated with a high mortality rate. Low weight, poor pre-operative condition, associated syndromes, and non-duct-dependent CCHD are significant risk factors affecting the survival of infants with CCHD.

Recovery of polyclonal immunoglobulins one year after autologous stem cell transplantation as a long-term predictor marker of progression and survival in multiple myeloma.

PubMed

González-Calle, Verónica; Cerdá, Seila; Labrador, Jorge; Sobejano, Eduardo; González-Mena, Beatriz; Aguilera, Carmen; Ocio, Enrique María; Vidriales, María Belén; Puig, Noemí; Gutiérrez, Norma Carmen; García-Sanz, Ramón; Alonso, José María; López, Rosa; Aguilar, Carlos; de Coca, Alfonso García; Hernández, Roberto; Hernández, José Mariano; Escalante, Fernando; Mateos, María-Victoria

2017-05-01

Immunoparesis or suppression of polyclonal immunoglobulins is a very common condition in newly diagnosed myeloma patients. However, the recovery of polyclonal immunoglobulins in the setting of immune reconstitution after autologous stem cell transplantation and its effect on outcome has not yet been explored. We conducted this study in a cohort of 295 patients who had undergone autologous transplantation. In order to explore the potential role of immunoglubulin recovery as a dynamic predictor of progression or survival after transplantation, conditional probabilities of progression-free survival and overall survival were estimated according to immunoglobulin recovery at different time points using a landmark approach. One year after transplant, when B-cell reconstitution is expected to be completed, among 169 patients alive and progression free, 88 patients (52%) showed immunoglobulin recovery and 81 (48%) did not. Interestingly, the group with immunoglobulin recovery had a significantly longer median progression-free survival than the group with persistent immunoparesis (median 60.4 vs. 27.9 months, respectively; Hazard Ratio: 0.45, 95%Confidence Interval: 0.31-0.66; P <0.001), and improved overall survival (11.3 vs. 7.3 years; Hazard Ratio: 0.45, 95%Confidence Interval: 0.27-0.74; P =0.002). Furthermore, the percentage of normal plasma cells detected by flow cytometry in the bone marrow assessed at day 100 after transplantation was associated with the immunoglobulin recovery at that time and may predict immunoglobulin recovery in the subsequent months: nine months and one year. In conclusion, the recovery of polyclonal immunoglobulins one year after autologous transplantation in myeloma patients is an independent long-term predictor marker for progression and survival. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

Conditional Disease-Free Survival After Surgical Resection of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

PubMed Central

Bischof, Danielle A.; Kim, Yuhree; Dodson, Rebecca; Jimenez, M. Carolina; Behman, Ramy; Cocieru, Andrei; Fisher, Sarah B.; Groeschl, Ryan T.; Squires, Malcolm H.; Maithel, Shishir K.; Blazer, Dan G.; Kooby, David A.; Gamblin, T. Clark; Bauer, Todd W.; Quereshy, Fayez A.; Karanicolas, Paul J.; Law, Calvin H. L.; Pawlik, Timothy M.

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are the most commonly diagnosed mesenchymal tumors of the gastrointestinal tract. The risk of recurrence following surgical resection of GISTs is typically reported from the date of surgery. However, disease-free survival (DFS) over time is dynamic and changes based on disease-free time already accumulated following surgery. OBJECTIVES To assess the comparative performance of established GIST recurrence risk prognostic scoring systems and to characterize conditional DFS following surgical resection of GISTs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A retrospective cohort study of 502 patients who underwent surgery for a primary, nonmetastatic GIST between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, at 7 major academic cancer centers in the United States and Canada. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Disease-free survival of the patients was classified according to 5 prognostic scoring systems, including the National Institutes of Health criteria, modified National Institutes of Health criteria, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center GIST nomogram, and American Joint Committee on Cancer gastric and nongastric categories. The concordance index (also known as the C statistic or the area under the receiver operating curve) of established GIST recurrence risk prognostic scoring systems. Conditional DFS estimates were calculated. RESULTS Overall 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year DFS following resection of GISTs was 95%, 83%, and 74%, respectively. All the prognostic scoring systems had fair prognostic ability. For all tumor sites, the American Joint Committee on Cancer gastric category demonstrated the best discrimination (C = 0.79). Using conditional DFS, the probability of remaining disease free for an additional 3 years given that a patient was disease free at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years was 82%, 89%, and 92%, respectively. Patients with the highest initial recurrence risk demonstrated the greatest increase in conditional survival as time elapsed. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Conditional DFS improves over time following resection of GISTs. This is valuable information about long-term prognosis to communicate to patients who are disease free after a period following surgery. PMID:25671681

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1993 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iwamoto, Robert N.; Sandford, Benjamin P.; McIntyre, Kenneth W.

1994-04-01

A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at differentmore » areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers.« less

Desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) survival at two eastern Mojave Desert sites: Death by short-term drought?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Longshore, Kathleen M.; Jaeger, Jef R.; Sappington, J. Mark

2003-01-01

Survival of adult Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) appears related to site-specific variation in precipitation and productivity of annual plants. We studied adult tortoise survival rates at two closely situated, but physiographically different, sites in the eastern Mojave Desert over a nine-year period (spring 1992 to spring 2001). Survival rates were initially derived from population surveys conducted over a three-year period and by radio-telemetry monitoring over a seven-year period beginning in 1994. After a period of initial stability, survival rates on the two sites diverged over the study period, and seven-year survival rates estimated from radio-telemetry monitoring were 0.900 and 0.269, respectively. A die-off in 1996 on the latter site appears to have been triggered by a period of drought, which began in the summer of 1995, coupled with a failure of annual vegetation production in 1996. Depressed survival rates on this site were associated with drought conditions during three of four years. Although the decline had the appearance of an epizootic, there were no clinical signs of disease. Relatively short-term drought, combined with little or no annual biomass, appears to have caused severe reductions in tortoise survival. If periods of drought-induced low survival are common over relatively small areas, then source-sink population dynamics may be an important factor determining tortoise population densities.

Defense strategies for asymmetric networked systems under composite utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; Hausken, Kjell

We consider an infrastructure of networked systems with discrete components that can be reinforced at certain costs to guard against attacks. The communications network plays a critical, asymmetric role of providing the vital connectivity between the systems. We characterize the correlations within this infrastructure at two levels using (a) aggregate failure correlation function that specifies the infrastructure failure probability giventhe failure of an individual system or network, and (b) first order differential conditions on system survival probabilities that characterize component-level correlations. We formulate an infrastructure survival game between an attacker and a provider, who attacks and reinforces individual components, respectively.more » They use the composite utility functions composed of a survival probability term and a cost term, and the previously studiedsum-form and product-form utility functions are their special cases. At Nash Equilibrium, we derive expressions for individual system survival probabilities and the expected total number of operational components. We apply and discuss these estimates for a simplified model of distributed cloud computing infrastructure« less

Lung Cancer Survival Prediction using Ensemble Data Mining on Seer Data

DOE PAGES

Agrawal, Ankit; Misra, Sanchit; Narayanan, Ramanathan; ...

2012-01-01

We analyze the lung cancer data available from the SEER program with the aim of developing accurate survival prediction models for lung cancer. Carefully designed preprocessing steps resulted in removal/modification/splitting of several attributes, and 2 of the 11 derived attributes were found to have significant predictive power. Several supervised classification methods were used on the preprocessed data along with various data mining optimizations and validations. In our experiments, ensemble voting of five decision tree based classifiers and meta-classifiers was found to result in the best prediction performance in terms of accuracy and area under the ROC curve. We have developedmore » an on-line lung cancer outcome calculator for estimating the risk of mortality after 6 months, 9 months, 1 year, 2 year and 5 years of diagnosis, for which a smaller non-redundant subset of 13 attributes was carefully selected using attribute selection techniques, while trying to retain the predictive power of the original set of attributes. Further, ensemble voting models were also created for predicting conditional survival outcome for lung cancer (estimating risk of mortality after 5 years of diagnosis, given that the patient has already survived for a period of time), and included in the calculator. The on-line lung cancer outcome calculator developed as a result of this study is available at http://info.eecs.northwestern.edu:8080/LungCancerOutcomeCalculator/.« less

Sandhill crane abundance and nesting ecology at Grays Lake, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, J.E.; Henry, A.R.; Ball, I.J.

2007-01-01

We examined population size and factors influencing nest survival of greater sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) at Grays Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Idaho, USA, during 1997-2000. Average local population of cranes from late April to early May, 1998-2000, was 735 cranes, 34% higher than that reported for May 1970-1971. We estimated 228 (SE = 30) nests in the basin core (excluding renests), 14% higher than a 1971 estimate. Apparent nest success in our study (x?? = 60%, n = 519 nests) was lower than reported for Grays Lake 30-50 years earlier. Daily survival rates (DSRs) of all nests averaged 0.9707 (41.2%). The best model explaining nest survival included year and water depth and their interaction. Nest survival was highest (DSR = 0.9827) in 1998 compared with other years (0.9698-0.9707). Nest survival changed little relative to water depth in 1998, when flooding was extensive and alternative prey (microtines) irrupted, but declined markedly with lower water levels in 2000, the driest year studied. Hypotheses relating nest survival to vegetation height, land use (idle, summer grazing, fall grazing), and date were not supported. In a before-after-control-impact design using 12 experimental fields, nest survival differed among years but not among management treatments (idle, fall graze, fall burn, and summer-graze-idle rotation), nor was there an interaction between year and treatments. However, DSRs in fall-burn fields declined from 0.9781 in 1997-1998 to 0.9503 in 1999-2000 (posttreatment). Changes in the predator community have likely contributed to declines in nest success since the 1950s and 1970s. Our results did not support earlier concerns about effects of habitat management practices on crane productivity. Nest survival could best be enhanced by managing spring water levels. Managers should continue censuses during late April to evaluate long-term relationships to habitat conditions and management.

Climate change and the green energy paradox: the consequences for twaite shad Alosa fallax from the River Severn, U.K.

PubMed

Aprahamian, M W; Aprahamian, C D; Knights, A M

2010-11-01

A stock-recruitment model with a temperature component was used to estimate the effect of an increase in temperature predicted by climate change projections on population persistence and distribution of twaite shad Alosa fallax. An increase of 1 and 2° C above the current mean summer (June to August) water temperature of 17·8° C was estimated to result in a three and six-fold increase in the population, respectively. Climate change is also predicted to result in an earlier commencement to their spawning migration into fresh water. The model was expanded to investigate the effect of any additional mortality that might arise from a tidal power barrage across the Severn Estuary. Turbine mortality was separated into two components: (1) juvenile (pre-maturation) on their out migration during their first year and on their first return to the river to spawn and (2) post-maturation mortality on adults on the repeat spawning component of the population. Under current conditions, decreasing pre-maturation and post-maturation survival by 8% is estimated to result in the stock becoming extinct. It is estimated that an increase in mean summer water temperature of 1° C would mean that survival pre and post-maturation would need to be reduced by c. 10% before the stock becomes extinct. Therefore, climate change is likely to be beneficial to populations of A. fallax within U.K. rivers, increasing survival and thus, population persistence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Survival of postfledging female American black ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Longcore, J.R.; McAuley, D.G.; Frazer, C.

1991-01-01

We equipped 106 hatching-year (HY), female, black ducks (Anas rubripes) with transmitters during 1985-87 and monitored survival from late August to mid-December on a lightly hunted area on the Maine-New Brunswick border. The 1985-87 estimate of survival (hunting losses included) was 0.593, and when losses from hunting were censored it was 0.694. Survival in August-September was 0.987; by 31 October survival declined to 0.885, and by 30 November it was 0.718. Most nonhunting mortality was caused by predators (21/41, 53.2%); there were 14 deaths (34.1%) from mammals or unknown predators and 7 (17.1%) from raptors. Hunting caused 13 (31. 7%) deaths. Ducks with lowest mass had the lowest survival. The estimate of survival for postfledging female black ducks, when multiplied with interval survival rates for hunting, winter, and breeding periods, produced an annual survival estimate of 0.262, about 12% lower than that (0.38) based on analysis of banding data.

Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dugger, Bruce D.; Coluccy, John M.; Dugger, Katie M.; Fox, Trevor T.; Kraege, Donald K.; Petrie, Mark J.

2016-01-01

Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of mallards in eastern Washington.

Effects of the length of central cancer registry operations on identification of subsequent cancers and on survival estimates.

PubMed

Qiao, Baozhen; Schymura, Maria J; Kahn, Amy R

2016-10-01

Population-based cancer survival analyses have traditionally been based on the first primary cancer. Recent studies have brought this practice into question, arguing that varying registry reference dates affect the ability to identify earlier cancers, resulting in selection bias. We used a theoretical approach to evaluate the extent to which the length of registry operations affects the classification of first versus subsequent cancers and consequently survival estimates. Sequence number central was used to classify tumors from the New York State Cancer Registry, diagnosed 2001-2010, as either first primaries (value=0 or 1) or subsequent primaries (≥2). A set of three sequence numbers, each based on an assumed reference year (1976, 1986 or 1996), was assigned to each tumor. Percent of subsequent cancers was evaluated by reference year, cancer site and age. 5-year relative survival estimates were compared under four different selection scenarios. The percent of cancer cases classified as subsequent primaries was 15.3%, 14.3% and 11.2% for reference years 1976, 1986 and 1996, respectively; and varied by cancer site and age. When only the first primary was included, shorter registry operation time was associated with slightly lower 5-year survival estimates. When all primary cancers were included, survival estimates decreased, with the largest decreases seen for the earliest reference year. Registry operation length affected the identification of subsequent cancers, but the overall effect of this misclassification on survival estimates was small. Survival estimates based on all primary cancers were slightly lower, but might be more comparable across registries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

INCLUDING TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN NEST SURVIVAL ESTIMATION: A MAYFIELD MARKOV CHAIN

EPA Science Inventory

This manuscript is primarily an exploration of the statistical properties of nest-survival estimates for terrestrial songbirds. The Mayfield formulation described herein should allow researchers to test for complicated effects of stressors on daily survival and overall success, i...

Measuring agreement of multivariate discrete survival times using a modified weighted kappa coefficient.

PubMed

Guo, Ying; Manatunga, Amita K

2009-03-01

Assessing agreement is often of interest in clinical studies to evaluate the similarity of measurements produced by different raters or methods on the same subjects. We present a modified weighted kappa coefficient to measure agreement between bivariate discrete survival times. The proposed kappa coefficient accommodates censoring by redistributing the mass of censored observations within the grid where the unobserved events may potentially happen. A generalized modified weighted kappa is proposed for multivariate discrete survival times. We estimate the modified kappa coefficients nonparametrically through a multivariate survival function estimator. The asymptotic properties of the kappa estimators are established and the performance of the estimators are examined through simulation studies of bivariate and trivariate survival times. We illustrate the application of the modified kappa coefficient in the presence of censored observations with data from a prostate cancer study.

Winter survival of Eurasian woodcock Scolopax rusticola in central Italy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aradis, A.; Miller, M.W.; Landucci, G.; Ruda, P.; Taddei, S.; Spina, F.

2008-01-01

The Eurasian woodcock Scolopax rusticola is a popular game bird in much of Europe. However, little is known about its population dynamics. We estimated winter survival of woodcock in a protected area with no hunting in central Italy. We radio-tagged 68 woodcocks with battery-powered radio-transmitters during 2001-2005. Woodcocks were captured in fields at night from November through February and fitted with radios. Birds were classified on capture as juveniles or adults using plumage characteristics. Woodcocks were relocated daily through March of each year or until they died, disappeared from the study area, or until their radio failed. We constructed a set of eight competing models of daily survival for the period 1 December - 28 February. Estimates of survival were obtained using the program SURVIV and Akaike's Information Criteria. The best model suggested daily survival was a constant 0.9985 (95% CI = 0.9972-0.9998), corresponding to a survival rate of 0.88 (SE = 0.05) for the 90-day winter study period. Our estimate of juvenile survival is higher than previously reported, and may reflect the protected status of the study area. Our estimates of winter survival may be helpful in managing harvested woodcock populations as well as in conserving populations in an increasingly urbanised environment. ?? Wildlife Biology (2008).

Overwinter survival of neotropical migratory birds in early successional and mature tropical forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conway, C.J.; Powell, G.V.N.; Nichols, J.D.

1995-01-01

Many Neotropical migratory species inhabit both mature and early successional forest on their wintering grounds, yet comparisons of survival rates between habitats are lacking. Consequently, the factors affecting habitat suitability for Neotropical migrants and the potential effects of tropical deforestation on migrants are not well understood. We estimated over-winter survival and capture probabilities of Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus), Hooded Warbler (Wilsonia citrina), and Kentucky Warbler (Oporomis formosus) inhabiting two common tropical habitat types, mature and early-successional forest. Our results suggest that large differences (for example, ratio of survival rates (gamma) < 0.85) in overwinter survival between these habitats do not exist for any of these species. Age ratios did not differ between habitats, but males were more common in forest habitats and females more common in successional habitats for Hooded Warblers and Kentucky Warblers. Future research on overwinter survival should address the need for age- and sex-specific survival estimates before we can draw strong conclusions regarding winter habitat suitability. Our estimates of over-winter survival extrapolated to annual survival rates that were generally lower than previous estimates of annual survival of migratory birds. Capture probability differed between habitats for Kentucky Warblers, but our results provide strong evidence against large differences in capture probability between habitats for Wood Thrush, Hooded Warblers, and Ovenbirds. We found no temporal or among site differences in survival or capture probability for any of the four species. Additional research is needed to examine the effects of winter habitat use on survival during migration and between-winter survival.

Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

2011-01-01

We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

A robust semi-parametric warping estimator of the survivor function with an application to two-group comparisons

PubMed Central

Hutson, Alan D

2018-01-01

In this note, we develop a new and novel semi-parametric estimator of the survival curve that is comparable to the product-limit estimator under very relaxed assumptions. The estimator is based on a beta parametrization that warps the empirical distribution of the observed censored and uncensored data. The parameters are obtained using a pseudo-maximum likelihood approach adjusting the survival curve accounting for the censored observations. In the univariate setting, the new estimator tends to better extend the range of the survival estimation given a high degree of censoring. However, the key feature of this paper is that we develop a new two-group semi-parametric exact permutation test for comparing survival curves that is generally superior to the classic log-rank and Wilcoxon tests and provides the best global power across a variety of alternatives. The new test is readily extended to the k group setting. PMID:26988931

Wild turkey poult survival in southcentral Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, M.W.; Garner, D.L.; Klaas, E.E.

1999-01-01

Poult survival is key to understanding annual change in wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) populations. Survival of eastern wild turkey poults (M. g. silvestris) 0-4 weeks posthatch was studied in southcentral Iowa during 1994-97. Survival estimates of poults were calculated based on biweekly flush counts and daily locations acquired via radiotelemetry. Poult survival averaged 0.52 ?? 0.14% (?? ?? SE) for telemetry counts and 0.40 ?? 0.15 for flush counts. No within-year or across-year differences were detected between estimation techniques. More than 72% (n = 32) of documented poult mortality occurred ???14 days posthatch, and mammalian predation accounted for 92.9% of documented mortality. If mortality agents are not of concern, we suggest biologists conduct 4-week flush counts to obtain poult survival estimates for use in population models and development of harvest recommendations.

Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

2012-01-01

American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.

2010-01-01

The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data from 1,865 observations of reproductive outcomes for female spotted owls. The proportion of subadult females among all territorial females of known age ranged from 0.00 to 0.25 among study areas and years. The proportion of subadults among female spotted owls was negatively related to reproductive output (no. of young fledged/territorial F owl) for ELD and SIE. Eldorado study area and LAS showed an alternate-year trend in reproductive output, with higher output in even-numbered years. Mean annual reproductive output was 0.988 ?? 0.154 for ELD, 0.624 ?? 0.140 for LAS, 0.478 ?? 0.106 for SIE, and 0.555 ?? 0.110 for SKC. Eldorado Study Area exhibited a declining trend and the greatest variation in reproductive output over time, whereas SIE and SKC, which had the lowest reproductive output, had the lowest temporal variation. Meta-analysis confirmed that reproductive output varied among study areas. Reproductive output was highest for adults, followed by second-year subadults, and then by first-year subadults. We used 842 marked subadult and adult owls to estimate population rate of change. Modeling indicated that ??t (??t is the finite rate of population change estimated using the reparameterized JollySeber estimator Pradel 1996) was either stationary (LAS and SIE) or increasing after an initial decrease (ELD and SKC). Mean estimated ??t for the 4 study areas was 1.007 (95 CI 0.9521.066) for ELD; 0.973 (95 CI 0.9461.001) for LAS; 0.992 (95 CI 0.9661.018) for SIE; and 1.006 (95 CI 0.9471.068) for SKC. The best meta-analysis model of population trend indicated that ?? varied across time but was similar in trend among the study areas. Our estimates of realized population change (??t; Franklin et al. 2004), which we estimated as the product 1 ?? ??3 ?? ??4 ?? .?? ??k -1, were based on estimates of ??t from individual study areas and did not require estimating annual population size for each study area. Trends represented the proportion of the population size in the first ye

Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

2009-01-01

Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

Translocation of Humpback Chub into tributary streams of the Colorado River: Implications for conservation of large-river fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spurgeon, Jonathan J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Healy, Brian D.; Trammell, Melissa; Speas, Dave; Smith, Emily Omana

2015-01-01

The Humpback Chub Gila cypha, a large-bodied, endangered cyprinid endemic to the Colorado River basin, is in decline throughout most of its range due largely to anthropogenic factors. Translocation of Humpback Chub into tributaries of the Colorado River is one conservation activity that may contribute to the expansion of the species’ current range and eventually provide population redundancy. We evaluated growth, survival, and dispersal following translocation of approximately 900 Humpback Chub over a period of 3 years (2009, 2010, and 2011) into Shinumo Creek, a tributary stream of the Colorado River within Grand Canyon National Park. Growth and condition of Humpback Chub in Shinumo Creek were consistent among year-classes and equaled or surpassed growth estimates from both the main-stem Colorado River and the Little Colorado River, where the largest (and most stable) Humpback Chub aggregation remains. Based on passive integrated tag recoveries, 53% ( = 483/902) of translocated Humpback Chub dispersed from Shinumo Creek into the main-stem Colorado River as of January 2013, 35% leaving within 25 d following translocation. Annual apparent survival estimates within Shinumo Creek ranged from 0.22 to 0.41, but were strongly influenced by emigration. Results indicate that Shinumo Creek provides favorable conditions for growth and survival of translocated Humpback Chub and could support a new population if reproduction and recruitment occur in the future. Adaptation of translocation strategies of Humpback Chub into tributary streams ultimately may refine the role translocation plays in recovery of the species.

Survival of Alternaria alternata during anaerobic digestion of biomass in stirred tank reactors.

PubMed

Schleusner, Y; Bandte, M; Gossmann, M; Heiermann, M; Plöchl, M; Büttner, C

2012-01-01

The survival of Alternaria alternate during anaerobic digestion was investigated in context of a joint research project. The aim of this project was to estimate the phytosanitary risk of dissemination of pathogens by returning treated biomass as organic fertilizer to arable land. The studies were carried out in lab-scale stirred tank reactors under mesophilic conditions. After insertion of infected plant material into the reactors the influence on the viability of the fungal pathogen was studied concerning exposure time, pretreatment and storage of the digestates for four weeks or six months. The results clearly showed that anaerobic digestion leads to a complete inactivation of A. alternate already after an exposure time of six hours.

Loggerhead sea turtle environmental sex determination: implications of moisture and temperature for climate change based predictions for species survival.

PubMed

Wyneken, Jeanette; Lolavar, Alexandra

2015-05-01

It has been proposed that because marine turtles have environmentally determined sex by incubation temperature, elevated temperatures might skew sex ratios to unsustainable levels, leading to extinction. Elevated temperatures may also reduce availability of suitable nesting sites via sea level rise. Increased tropical storm activity can directly affect nest site moisture, embryonic development, and the probability that nests will survive. Here, we question some of these assumptions and review the limits of sex ratio estimates. Sea turtles may be more resilient to climate change than previously thought, in part because of hitherto unappreciated mechanisms for coping with variable incubation conditions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The effect of multiple primary rules on population-based cancer survival

PubMed Central

Weir, Hannah K.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Thompson, Trevor D.

2015-01-01

Purpose Different rules for registering multiple primary (MP) cancers are used by cancer registries throughout the world, making international data comparisons difficult. This study evaluates the effect of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and International Association of Cancer Registries (IACR) MP rules on population-based cancer survival estimates. Methods Data from five US states and six metropolitan area cancer registries participating in the SEER Program were used to estimate age-standardized relative survival (RS%) for first cancers-only and all first cancers matching the selection criteria according to SEER and IACR MP rules for all cancer sites combined and for the top 25 cancer site groups among men and women. Results During 1995–2008, the percentage of MP cancers (all sites, both sexes) increased 25.4 % by using SEER rules (from 14.6 to 18.4 %) and 20.1 % by using IACR rules (from 13.2 to 15.8 %). More MP cancers were registered among females than among males, and SEER rules registered more MP cancers than IACR rules (15.8 vs. 14.4 % among males; 17.2 vs. 14.5 % among females). The top 3 cancer sites with the largest differences were melanoma (5.8 %), urinary bladder (3.5 %), and kidney and renal pelvis (2.9 %) among males, and breast (5.9 %), melanoma (3.9 %), and urinary bladder (3.4 %) among females. Five-year survival estimates (all sites combined) restricted to first primary cancers-only were higher than estimates by using first site-specific primaries (SEER or IACR rules), and for 11 of 21 sites among males and 11 of 23 sites among females. SEER estimates are comparable to IACR estimates for all site-specific cancers and marginally higher for all sites combined among females (RS 62.28 vs. 61.96 %). Conclusion Survival after diagnosis has improved for many leading cancers. However, cancer patients remain at risk of subsequent cancers. Survival estimates based on first cancers-only exclude a large and increasing number of MP cancers. To produce clinically and epidemiologically relevant and less biased cancer survival estimates, data on all cancers should be included in the analysis. The multiple primary rules (SEER or IACR) used to identify primary cancers do not affect survival estimates if all first cancers matching the selection criteria are used to produce site-specific survival estimates. PMID:23558444

Robustness of survival estimates for radio-marked animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunck, C.M.; Chen, C.-L.

1992-01-01

Telemetry techniques are often used to study the survival of birds and mammals; particularly whcn mark-recapture approaches are unsuitable. Both parametric and nonparametric methods to estimate survival have becn developed or modified from other applications. An implicit assumption in these approaches is that the probability of re-locating an animal with a functioning transmitter is one. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to determine the bias and variance of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and an estimator based also on the assumption of constant hazard and to eva!uate the performance of the two-sample tests associated with each. Modifications of each estimator which allow a re-Iocation probability of less than one are described and evaluated. Generallv the unmodified estimators were biased but had lower variance. At low sample sizes all estimators performed poorly. Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of all test statistics reasonably approximated the null distribution when survival was low but not when it was high. The power of the two-sample tests were similar.

Estimating the personal cure rate of cancer patients using population-based grouped cancer survival data.

PubMed

Binbing Yu; Tiwari, Ram C; Feuer, Eric J

2011-06-01

Cancer patients are subject to multiple competing risks of death and may die from causes other than the cancer diagnosed. The probability of not dying from the cancer diagnosed, which is one of the patients' main concerns, is sometimes called the 'personal cure' rate. Two approaches of modelling competing-risk survival data, namely the cause-specific hazards approach and the mixture model approach, have been used to model competing-risk survival data. In this article, we first show the connection and differences between crude cause-specific survival in the presence of other causes and net survival in the absence of other causes. The mixture survival model is extended to population-based grouped survival data to estimate the personal cure rate. Using the colorectal cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Programme, we estimate the probabilities of dying from colorectal cancer, heart disease, and other causes by age at diagnosis, race and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage.

Cross-Validation of Survival Bump Hunting by Recursive Peeling Methods.

PubMed

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J Sunil

2014-08-01

We introduce a survival/risk bump hunting framework to build a bump hunting model with a possibly censored time-to-event type of response and to validate model estimates. First, we describe the use of adequate survival peeling criteria to build a survival/risk bump hunting model based on recursive peeling methods. Our method called "Patient Recursive Survival Peeling" is a rule-induction method that makes use of specific peeling criteria such as hazard ratio or log-rank statistics. Second, to validate our model estimates and improve survival prediction accuracy, we describe a resampling-based validation technique specifically designed for the joint task of decision rule making by recursive peeling (i.e. decision-box) and survival estimation. This alternative technique, called "combined" cross-validation is done by combining test samples over the cross-validation loops, a design allowing for bump hunting by recursive peeling in a survival setting. We provide empirical results showing the importance of cross-validation and replication.

Cross-Validation of Survival Bump Hunting by Recursive Peeling Methods

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J. Sunil

2015-01-01

We introduce a survival/risk bump hunting framework to build a bump hunting model with a possibly censored time-to-event type of response and to validate model estimates. First, we describe the use of adequate survival peeling criteria to build a survival/risk bump hunting model based on recursive peeling methods. Our method called “Patient Recursive Survival Peeling” is a rule-induction method that makes use of specific peeling criteria such as hazard ratio or log-rank statistics. Second, to validate our model estimates and improve survival prediction accuracy, we describe a resampling-based validation technique specifically designed for the joint task of decision rule making by recursive peeling (i.e. decision-box) and survival estimation. This alternative technique, called “combined” cross-validation is done by combining test samples over the cross-validation loops, a design allowing for bump hunting by recursive peeling in a survival setting. We provide empirical results showing the importance of cross-validation and replication. PMID:26997922

Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

1998-01-01

The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated for manatees in the Blue Spring and Crystal River areas were consistent with current mammalian life history theory and other empirical data available for large, long-lived mammals. Adult survival probabilities in these areas appeared high enough to maintain growing populations if other traits such as reproductive rates and juvenile survival were also sufficiently high lower and variable survival rates on the Atlantic coast are cause for concern.

Usefulness of cancer-free survival in estimating the lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence from radiation exposure.

PubMed

Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dal Nim; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Won Jin; Park, Sunhoo

2018-05-11

Risk projection models estimating the lifetime cancer risk from radiation exposure are generally based on exposure dose, age at exposure, attained age, gender and study-population-specific factors such as baseline cancer risks and survival rates. Because such models have mostly been based on the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, the baseline risks and survival rates in the target population should be considered when applying the cancer risk. The survival function used in the risk projection models that are commonly used in the radiological protection field to estimate the cancer risk from medical or occupational exposure is based on all-cause mortality. Thus, it may not be accurate for estimating the lifetime risk of high-incidence but not life-threatening cancer with a long-term survival rate. Herein, we present the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) estimates of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, thyroid cancer, and leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia in South Korea for lifetime exposure to 1 mGy per year using the cancer-free survival function, as recently applied in the Fukushima health risk assessment by the World Health Organization. Compared with the estimates of LARs using an overall survival function solely based on all-cause mortality, the LARs of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer evaluated using the cancer-free survival function, decreased by approximately 13% and 1% for men and 9% and 5% for women, respectively. The LAR of leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia barely changed for either gender owing to the small absolute difference between its incidence and mortality. Given that many cancers have a high curative rate and low mortality rate, using a survival function solely based on all-cause mortality may cause an overestimation of the lifetime risk of cancer incidence. The lifetime fractional risk was robust against the choice of survival function.

Survival and recovery rates of American woodcock banded in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krementz, David G.; Hines, James E.; Luukkonen, David R.

2003-01-01

American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population indices have declined since U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) monitoring began in 1968. Management to stop and/or reverse this population trend has been hampered by the lack of recent information on woodcock population parameters. Without recent information on survival rate trends, managers have had to assume that the recent declines in recruitment indices are the only parameter driving woodcock declines. Using program MARK, we estimated annual survival and recovery rates of adult and juvenile American woodcock, and estimated summer survival of local (young incapable of sustained flight) woodcock banded in Michigan between 1978 and 1998. We constructed a set of candidate models from a global model with age (local, juvenile, adult) and time (year)-dependent survival and recovery rates to no age or time-dependent survival and recovery rates. Five models were supported by the data, with all models suggesting that survival rates differed among age classes, and 4 models had survival rates that were constant over time. The fifth model suggested that juvenile and adult survival rates were linear on a logit scale over time. Survival rates averaged over likelihood-weighted model results were 0.8784 +/- 0.1048 (SE) for locals, 0.2646 +/- 0.0423 (SE) for juveniles, and 0.4898 +/- 0.0329 (SE) for adults. Weighted average recovery rates were 0.0326 +/- 0.0053 (SE) for juveniles and 0.0313 +/- 0.0047 (SE) for adults. Estimated differences between our survival estimates and those from prior years were small, and our confidence around those differences was variable and uncertain. juvenile survival rates were low.

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice.

PubMed

Regehr, Eric V; Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Amstrup, Steven C; Stirling, Ian

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0.96-0.99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0.73-0.79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are relevant to the extinction risk facing approximately one-third of the world's polar bears.

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, E.V.; Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0 ∙ 96-0 ∙ 99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0 ∙ 73-0 ∙ 79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are relevant to the extinction risk facing approximately one-third of the world's polar bears. 

Factors associated with automobile accidents and survival.

PubMed

Kim, Hong Sok; Kim, Hyung Jin; Son, Bongsoo

2006-09-01

This paper develops an econometric model for vehicles' inherent mortality rate and estimates the probability of accidents and survival in the United States. Logistic regression model is used to estimate probability of survival, and censored regression model is used to estimate probability of accidents. The estimation results indicated that the probability of accident and survival are influenced by the physical characteristics of the vehicles involved in the accident, and by the characteristics of the driver and the occupants. Using restrain system and riding in heavy vehicle increased the survival rate. Middle-aged drivers are less susceptible to involve in an accident, and surprisingly, female drivers are more likely to have an accident than male drivers. Riding in powerful vehicles (high horsepower) and driving late night increase the probability of accident. Overall, the driving behavior and characteristics of vehicle does matter and affects the probabilities of having a fatal accident for different types of vehicles.

Route-Specific Passage Proportions and Survival Rates for Fish Passing through John Day Dam, The Dalles Dam, and Bonneville Dam in 2010 and 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ploskey, Gene R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Carlson, Thomas J.

This report fulfills a request of the U.S. Army Engineer District, Portland, Oregon, to produce an interim report of estimates of route-specific fish passage proportions and survival rates for lower Columbia River dams in 2010 and 2011. The estimates are needed to update the Compass Model for the Columbia River Treaty and the new Biological Opinion before detail technical reports are published in late 2012. This report tabulates route-specific fish-passage proportions and survival rates for steelhead and Chinook salmon smolts passing through various sampled routes at John Day Dam, The Dalles Dam, and Bonneville Dam in 2010 and 2011. Resultsmore » were compiled from analyses of data acquired in spring 2010 and 2011 studies that were specifically designed to estimate dam-passage and forebay-to-tailrace survival rates, travel time metrics, and spill passage efficiency, as stipulated by the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion and the Columbia Basin Fish Accords. The study designs allowed for estimation of route-specific fish passage proportions and survival rates as well as estimation of forebay-passage survival, all of which are summarized herein.« less

How can survival processing improve memory encoding?

PubMed

Luo, Meng; Geng, Haiyan

2013-11-01

We investigated the psychological mechanism of survival processing advantage from the perspective of false memory in two experiments. Using a DRM paradigm in combination with analysis based on signal detection theory, we were able to separately examine participants' utilization of verbatim representation and gist representation. Specifically, in Experiment 1, participants rated semantically related words in a survival scenario for a survival condition but rated pleasantness of words in the same DRM lists for a non-survival control condition. The results showed that participants demonstrated more gist processing in the survival condition than in the pleasantness condition; however, the degree of item-specific processing in the two encoding conditions did not significantly differ. In Experiment 2, the control task was changed to a category rating task, in which participants were asked to make category ratings of words in the category lists. We found that the survival condition involved more item-specific processing than did the category condition, but we found no significant difference between the two encoding conditions at the level of gist processing. Overall, our study demonstrates that survival processing can simultaneously promote gist and item-specific representations. When the control tasks only promoted either item-specific representation or gist representation, memory advantages of survival processing occurred.

HLA-matched sibling stem cell transplantation in children with β-thalassemia with anti-thymocyte globulin as part of the preparative regimen: the Greek experience.

PubMed

Goussetis, E; Peristeri, I; Kitra, V; Vessalas, G; Paisiou, A; Theodosaki, M; Petrakou, E; Dimopoulou, M N; Graphakos, S

2012-08-01

BU combined with CY, the preferred preparatory regimen for thalassemic patients, is associated with a substantial incidence of graft rejection especially in patients with advanced disease stage. This study retrospectively analyzes the outcome of 75 consecutive pediatric patients with β-thalassemia who underwent HLA-matched sibling transplantation after anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG)-containing myeloablative conditioning regimens. With a median follow-up of 9 years (range 1-15 years), the overall survival (OS) and thalassemia free survival (TFS) rates were 96% and 92%, respectively. Both the estimated TRM and the cumulative incidence of rejection/failure were 4%. The cumulative incidences of acute GVHD grade II-III and grade III were 20% and 5.3%, respectively. No patient developed acute GVHD grade IV. Only two patients developed extensive chronic GVHD. The estimated OS and TFS for patients with Class 1 and 2 disease according to Pesaro criteria were 96.3% and 94.4%, whereas for patients with Class 3 disease they were 94.1% and 88.2%, respectively. In our series, the use of myeloablative conditioning regimens, which include ATG for the transplantation of thalassemic children from matched sibling donors, resulted in excellent outcomes with very low incidences of TRM and rejection.

Characterization of Fish Passage Conditions through a Francis Turbine, Spillway, and Regulating Outlet at Detroit Dam, Oregon, Using Sensor Fish, 2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duncan, Joanne P.; Carlson, Thomas J.

2011-05-06

Fish passage conditions through two spillways, a Francis turbine, and a regulating outlet (RO) at Detroit Dam on the North Santiam River in Oregon were evaluated by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Portland District, using Sensor Fish devices. The objective of the study was to describe and compare passage exposure conditions, identifying potential fish injury regions within the routes. The study was performed in July, October, and December 2009 concurrent with HI-Z balloon-tag studies by Normandeau Associates, Inc. Sensor Fish data were analyzed to estimate 1) exposure conditions, particularly exposure to severe strike,more » collision, and shear events by passage route sub-regions; 2) differences in passage conditions between passage routes; and 3) relationships to live-fish injury and mortality data estimates. Comparison of the three passage routes evaluated at Detroit Dam indicates that the RO passage route through the 5-ft gate opening was relatively the safest route for fish passage under the operating conditions tested; turbine passage was the most deleterious. These observations were supported also by the survival and malady estimates obtained from live-fish testing. Injury rates were highest for turbine and spillway passage. However, none of the passage routes tested is safe for juvenile salmonid passage.« less

Body condition and habitat use by Hermann's tortoises in burnt and intact habitats

PubMed Central

Lecq, S.; Ballouard, J.-M.; Caron, S.; Livoreil, B.; Seynaeve, V.; Matthieu, L.-A.; Bonnet, X.

2014-01-01

In Mediterranean regions, fires threaten terrestrial tortoises. Nevertheless, varying proportions of adults survive fire; these surviving individuals can play a central role for population recovery. The regions devastated by fire often include important habitat of Hermann's tortoises (Testudo hermanni hermanni), so assessing the ability of survivors to persist is essential for conserving the species. Body-condition indices provide an integrative estimate of how well individuals cope with environmental variations and impacts, including fires. Between 2002 and 2009, we monitored Hermann's tortoises in intact and burnt habitats in southeastern France. In summer 2003, a strong fire ravaged half of the surveyed zone, providing an opportunity to compare body condition of tortoises between intact and burnt areas over time. Six years later, the impact of fire on vegetation was still marked; large trees were abundant in the intact area, whereas open shrub vegetation prevailed in the burnt area. In both areas, the mean body condition of tortoises fluctuated over time; however, there were no differences between the two areas. A radio-tracking experiment demonstrated that individuals from each area were residents, and not vagrants commuting between areas. We also assessed changes in body condition and microhabitat use in radio-tracked individuals. We found no significant differences between the tortoises living in the burnt and intact areas, despite subtle differences in habitat use. In conclusion: (i) surviving tortoises in an area ravaged by fire can maintain their body condition like individuals living in an intact area, and thus, individuals from burnt areas should not be translocated to supposedly better areas; and (ii) depopulated burnt areas are likely to be appropriate for population-augmentation programmes. PMID:27293640

Construction of a North American Cancer Survival Index to Measure Progress of Cancer Control Efforts

PubMed Central

Weir, Hannah K; Mariotto, Angela; Wilson, Reda; Nishri, Diane

2017-01-01

Introduction Population-based cancer survival data provide insight into the effectiveness of health care delivery. Comparing survival for all cancer sites combined is challenging, because the primary cancer site and age distribution of patients may differ among areas or change over time. Cancer survival indices (CSIs) are summary measures of survival for cancers of all sites combined and are used in England and Europe to monitor temporal trends and examine geographic differences in survival. We describe the construction of the North American Cancer Survival Index and demonstrate how it can be used to compare survival by geographic area and by race. Methods We used data from 36 US cancer registries to estimate relative survival ratios for people diagnosed with cancer from 2006 through 2012 to create the CSI: the weighted sum of age-standardized, site-specific, relative survival ratios, with weights derived from the distribution of incident cases by sex and primary site from 2006 through 2008. The CSI was calculated for 32 registries for all races, 31 registries for whites, and 12 registries for blacks. Results The survival estimates standardized by age only versus age-, sex-, and site-standardized (CSI) were 64.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 64.1%–64.2%) and 63.9% (95% CI, 63.8%–63.9%), respectively, for the United States for all races combined. The inter-registry ranges in unstandardized and CSI estimates decreased from 12.3% to 5.0% for whites, and from 5.4% to 3.9% for blacks. We found less inter-registry variation in CSI estimates than in unstandardized all-sites survival estimates, but disparities by race persisted. Conclusions CSIs calculated for different jurisdictions or periods are directly comparable, because they are standardized by age, sex, and primary site. A national CSI could be used to measure temporal progress in meeting public health objectives, such as Healthy People 2030. PMID:28910593

Parameter estimation in Cox models with missing failure indicators and the OPPERA study.

PubMed

Brownstein, Naomi C; Cai, Jianwen; Slade, Gary D; Bair, Eric

2015-12-30

In a prospective cohort study, examining all participants for incidence of the condition of interest may be prohibitively expensive. For example, the "gold standard" for diagnosing temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a physical examination by a trained clinician. In large studies, examining all participants in this manner is infeasible. Instead, it is common to use questionnaires to screen for incidence of TMD and perform the "gold standard" examination only on participants who screen positively. Unfortunately, some participants may leave the study before receiving the "gold standard" examination. Within the framework of survival analysis, this results in missing failure indicators. Motivated by the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study, a large cohort study of TMD, we propose a method for parameter estimation in survival models with missing failure indicators. We estimate the probability of being an incident case for those lacking a "gold standard" examination using logistic regression. These estimated probabilities are used to generate multiple imputations of case status for each missing examination that are combined with observed data in appropriate regression models. The variance introduced by the procedure is estimated using multiple imputation. The method can be used to estimate both regression coefficients in Cox proportional hazard models as well as incidence rates using Poisson regression. We simulate data with missing failure indicators and show that our method performs as well as or better than competing methods. Finally, we apply the proposed method to data from the OPPERA study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Endolithic microbial life in hot and cold deserts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedmann, E. I.

1980-01-01

Endolithic microorganisms (those living inside rocks) occur in hot and cold deserts and exist under extreme environmental conditions. These conditions are discussed on a comparative basis. Quantitative estimates of biomass are comparable in hot and cold deserts. Despite the obvious differences between the hot and cold desert environment, survival strategies show some common features. These endolithic organisms are able to 'switch' rapidly their metabolic activities on and off in response to changes in the environment. Conditions in hot deserts impose a more severe environmental stress on the organisms than in the cold Antarctic desert. This is reflected in the composition of the microbial flora which in hot desert rocks consist entirely of prokaryotic microorganisms, while under cold desert conditions eukaryotes predominate.

Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

PubMed

Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

2016-06-01

The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

Reentry survivability modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fudge, Michael L.; Maher, Robert L.

1997-10-01

Statistical methods for expressing the impact risk posed to space systems in general [and the International Space Station (ISS) in particular] by other resident space objects have been examined. One of the findings of this investigation is that there are legitimate physical modeling reasons for the common statistical expression of the collision risk. A combination of statistical methods and physical modeling is also used to express the impact risk posed by re-entering space systems to objects of interest (e.g., people and property) on Earth. One of the largest uncertainties in the expressing of this risk is the estimation of survivable material which survives reentry to impact Earth's surface. This point was recently demonstrated in dramatic fashion by the impact of an intact expendable launch vehicle (ELV) upper stage near a private residence in the continental United States. Since approximately half of the missions supporting ISS will utilize ELVs, it is appropriate to examine the methods used to estimate the amount and physical characteristics of ELV debris surviving reentry to impact Earth's surface. This paper examines reentry survivability estimation methodology, including the specific methodology used by Caiman Sciences' 'Survive' model. Comparison between empirical results (observations of objects which have been recovered on Earth after surviving reentry) and Survive estimates are presented for selected upper stage or spacecraft components and a Delta launch vehicle second stage.

Vulnerability of shortgrass prairie bird assemblages to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Dreitz, Victoria; Conrey, Reesa Y.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.; Knuffman, Lekha

2016-01-01

The habitats and resources needed to support grassland birds endemic to North American prairie ecosystems are seriously threatened by impending climate change. To assess the vulnerability of grassland birds to climate change, we consider various components of vulnerability, including sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011). Sensitivity encompasses the innate characteristics of a species and, in this context, is related to a species’ tolerance to changes in weather patterns. Groundnesting birds, including prairie birds, are particularly responsive to heat waves combined with drought conditions, as revealed by abundance and distribution patterns (Albright et al. 2010). To further assess sensitivity, we estimated reproductive parameters of nearly 3000 breeding attempts of a suite of prairie birds relative to prevailing weather. Fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado, 1997-2014, influenced breeding performance of a suite of avian species endemic to the shortgrass prairie, many of which have experienced recent population declines. High summer temperatures and intense rain events corresponded with lower nest survival for most species. Although dry conditions favored nest survival of Burrowing Owls and Mountain Plovers (Conrey 2010, Dreitz et al. 2012), drought resulted in smaller clutch sizes and lower nest survival for passerines (Skagen and Yackel Adams 2012, Conrey et al. in review). Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that some passerine species can maintain stable breeding populations in this region of the shortgrass prairie.

Acoustic Telemetry Evaluation of Juvenile Salmonid Passage and Survival at John Day Dam, 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weiland, Mark A.; Woodley, Christa M.; Ploskey, Gene R.

This report presents survival, behavioral, and fish passage results for yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon smolts and juvenile steelhead tagged with JSATS acoustic micro-transmitters as part of a survival study conducted at John Day Dam during 2010. This study was designed to evaluate the passage and survival of yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead to assist managers in identifying dam operations for compliance testing as stipulated by the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion and the 2008 Columbia Basin Fish Accords. Survival estimates were based on a single-release survival estimate model.

Bypass system modification at Bonneville Dam on the Columbia River improved the survival of juvenile salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferguson, J.W.; Sandford, B.P.; Reagan, R.E.; Gilbreath, L.G.; Meyer, E.B.; Ledgerwood, R.D.; Adams, N.S.

2007-01-01

From 1987 to 1992, we evaluated a fish bypass system at Bonneville Dam Powerhouse 2 on the Columbia River. The survival of subyearling Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha released into the system ranged from 0.774 to 0.911 and was significantly lower than the survival of test fish released into turbines and the area immediately below the powerhouse where bypass system flow reentered the river. Yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and yearling coho salmon O. kisutch released into the bypass system were injured or descaled. Also, levels of blood plasma cortisol and lactate were significantly higher in yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon that passed through the bypass system than in fish released directly into a net located over the bypass exit. This original system was then extensively modified using updated design criteria, and the site where juvenile fish reentered the river was relocated 2.8 km further downstream to reduce predation on bypassed fish by northern pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis. Based on studies conducted from 1999 to 2001, the new bypass system resulted in high fish survival, virtually no injuries to fish, fish passage times that were generally similar to water travel times, and mild stress responses from which fish recovered quickly. The mean estimated survival of subyearling Chinook salmon passing through the new bypass system was 0.946 in 2001, which was an usually low-flow year. Survival, physical condition, passage timing, and blood physiological indicators of stress were all useful metrics for assessing the performance of both bypass systems and are discussed. The engineering and hydraulic criteria used to design the new bypass system that resulted in improved fish passage conditions are described.

Estimating length of avian incubation and nestling stages in afrotropical forest birds from interval-censored nest records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Newmark, W.D.

2010-01-01

In the East Usambara Mountains in northeast Tanzania, research on the effects of forest fragmentation and disturbance on nest survival in understory birds resulted in the accumulation of 1,002 nest records between 2003 and 2008 for 8 poorly studied species. Because information on the length of the incubation and nestling stages in these species is nonexistent or sparse, our objectives in this study were (1) to estimate the length of the incubation and nestling stage and (2) to compute nest survival using these estimates in combination with calculated daily survival probability. Because our data were interval censored, we developed and applied two new statistical methods to estimate stage length. In the 8 species studied, the incubation stage lasted 9.6-21.8 days and the nestling stage 13.9-21.2 days. Combining these results with estimates of daily survival probability, we found that nest survival ranged from 6.0% to 12.5%. We conclude that our methodology for estimating stage lengths from interval-censored nest records is a reasonable and practical approach in the presence of interval-censored data. ?? 2010 The American Ornithologists' Union.

Population size, survival, and movements of white-cheeked pintails in Eastern Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collazo, J.A.; Bonilla-Martinez, G.

2001-01-01

We estimated numbers and survival of White-cheeked Pintails (Anas bahamensis) in eastern Puerto Rico during 1996-1999. We also quantified their movements between Culebra Island and the Humacao Wildlife Refuge, Puerto Rico. Mark-resight population size estimates averaged 1020 pintails during nine, 3-month sampling periods from January 1997 to June 1999. On average, minimum regional counts were 38 % lower than mark-resight estimates (mean = 631). Adult survival was 0.51 ?? 0.09 (SE). This estimate is similar for other anatids of similar size but broader geographic distribution. The probability of pintails surviving and staying in Humacao was hiher (67 %) than for counterparts on Culebra (31 %). The probability of surviving and moving from Culebra to Humacao (41 %) was higher than from Humacao to Culebra (20 %). These findings, and available information on reproduction, indicate that the Humacao Wildlife Refuge refuge has an important role in the regional demography of pintails. Our findings on population numbers and regional survival are encouraging, given concerns about the species' status due to habitat loss and hunting. However, our outlook for the species is tempered by the remaining gaps in the population dynamics of pintails; for examples, survival estimates of broods and fledglings (age 0-1) are needed for a comprehensive status assessment. Until additional data are obtianed, White-cheeked Pintails should continue to be protectd from hunting in Puerto Rico.

Prediction of Conditional Probability of Survival After Surgery for Gastric Cancer: A Study Based on Eastern and Western Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Zhong, Qing; Chen, Qi-Yue; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Huang, Chang-Ming

2018-04-20

The dynamic prognosis of patients who have undergone curative surgery for gastric cancer has yet to be reported. Our objective was to devise an accurate tool for predicting the conditional probability of survival for these patients. We analyzed 11,551 gastric cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Two-thirds of the patients were selected randomly for the development set and one-third for the validation set. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the conditional probability of overall survival and the conditional probability of disease-specific survival, using conditional survival methods. We then applied these nomograms to the 4,001 patients in the database from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China, one of the most active Chinese institutes. The 5-year conditional probability of overall survival of the patients was 41.6% immediately after resection and increased to 52.8%, 68.2%, and 80.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years after gastrectomy. The 5-year conditional probability of disease-specific survival "increased" from 48.9% at the time of gastrectomy to 59.8%, 74.7%, and 85.5% for patients surviving 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Sex; race; age; depth of tumor invasion; lymph node metastasis; and tumor size, site, and grade were associated with overall survival and disease-specific survival (P <.05). Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results validation set, the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.77, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after gastrectomy, respectively. Within the other validation set from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 4,001), the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.76, 0.79, 0.77, and 0.77 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The accuracy of the conditional probability of disease-specific survival model was also favorable. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. Based on the large Eastern and Western data sets, we developed and validated the first conditional nomogram for prediction of conditional probability of survival for patients with gastric cancer to allow consideration of the duration of survivorship. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nest survival modelling using a multi-species approach in forests managed for timber and biofuel feedstock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loman, Zachary G.; Monroe, Adrian; Riffell, Samuel K.; Miller, Darren A.; Vilella, Francisco; Wheat, Bradley R.; Rush, Scott A.; Martin, James A.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) intercropping is a novel forest management practice for biomass production intended to generate cellulosic feedstocks within intensively managed loblolly pine‐dominated landscapes. These pine plantations are important for early‐successional bird species, as short rotation times continually maintain early‐successional habitat. We tested the efficacy of using community models compared to individual surrogate species models in understanding influences on nest survival. We analysed nest data to test for differences in habitat use for 14 bird species in plots managed for switchgrass intercropping and controls within loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations in Mississippi, USA.We adapted hierarchical models using hyper‐parameters to incorporate information from both common and rare species to understand community‐level nest survival. This approach incorporates rare species that are often discarded due to low sample sizes, but can inform community‐level demographic parameter estimates. We illustrate use of this approach in generating both species‐level and community‐wide estimates of daily survival rates for songbird nests. We were able to include rare species with low sample size (minimum n = 5) to inform a hyper‐prior, allowing us to estimate effects of covariates on daily survival at the community level, then compare this with a single‐species approach using surrogate species. Using single‐species models, we were unable to generate estimates below a sample size of 21 nests per species.Community model species‐level survival and parameter estimates were similar to those generated by five single‐species models, with improved precision in community model parameters.Covariates of nest placement indicated that switchgrass at the nest site (<4 m) reduced daily nest survival, although intercropping at the forest stand level increased daily nest survival.Synthesis and applications. Community models represent a viable method for estimating community nest survival rates and effects of covariates while incorporating limited data for rarely detected species. Intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine plantations slightly increased daily nest survival at the research plot scale (0.1 km2), although at a local scale (50 m2) switchgrass negatively influenced nest survival. A likely explanation is intercropping shifted community composition, favouring species with greater disturbance tolerance.

Survival, mortality, and predators of red tree voles (Arborimus longicaudus)

Treesearch

James K. Swingle; Eric D. Forsman; Robert G. Anthony

2010-01-01

Although estimations of vital rates are important to understand population dynamics of small mammals, there is little information on survival rates and causes of mortality for many species. In 2002-2003, we estimated monthly and annual survival of 50 radiocollared red tree voles (Arborimus longicaudus) during a study of movements and diel activity...

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

PubMed Central

Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

2016-01-01

Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Abatzoglou, John T; Raffa, Kenneth F; Logan, Jesse A

2016-12-01

Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Effects of capturing and collaring on polar bears: findings from long-term research on the southern Beaufort Sea population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Pagano, Anthony M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Atwood, Todd C.; Durner, George M.; Simac, Kristin S.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2014-01-01

Context: The potential for research methods to affect wildlife is an increasing concern among both scientists and the public. This topic has a particular urgency for polar bears because additional research is needed to monitor and understand population responses to rapid loss of sea ice habitat.Aims: This study used data collected from polar bears sampled in the Alaska portion of the southern Beaufort Sea to investigate the potential for capture to adversely affect behaviour and vital rates. We evaluated the extent to which capture, collaring and handling may influence activity and movement days to weeks post-capture, and body mass, body condition, reproduction and survival over 6 months or more.Methods: We compared post-capture activity and movement rates, and relationships between prior capture history and body mass, body condition and reproductive success. We also summarised data on capture-related mortality.Key results: Individual-based estimates of activity and movement rates reached near-normal levels within 2–3 days and fully normal levels within 5 days post-capture. Models of activity and movement rates among all bears had poor fit, but suggested potential for prolonged, lower-level rate reductions. Repeated captures was not related to negative effects on body condition, reproduction or cub growth or survival. Capture-related mortality was substantially reduced after 1986, when immobilisation drugs were changed, with only 3 mortalities in 2517 captures from 1987–2013.Conclusions: Polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea exhibited the greatest reductions in activity and movement rates 3.5 days post-capture. These shorter-term, post-capture effects do not appear to have translated into any long-term effects on body condition, reproduction, or cub survival. Additionally, collaring had no effect on polar bear recovery rates, body condition, reproduction or cub survival.Implications: This study provides empirical evidence that current capture-based research methods do not have long-term implications, and are not contributing to observed changes in body condition, reproduction or survival in the southern Beaufort Sea. Continued refinement of capture protocols, such as the use of low-impact dart rifles and reversible drug combinations, might improve polar bear response to capture and abate short-term reductions in activity and movement post-capture.

Gender, literacy, and survival among Ethiopian adults, 1987 - 96.

PubMed Central

Berhane, Yemane; Hogberg, Ulf; Byass, Peter; Wall, Stig

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine relationships between gender, literacy and survival among adults in Meskan and Mareko district, Ethiopia. METHODS: On the basis of an established demographic surveillance system, an open-cohort analysis of 172726 person-years covering the period January 1987 to December 1996 was conducted in 10 randomly selected local communities. FINDINGS: The crude mortality rate was 11.2 per 1000 person-years among adults aged > or =15 years; the values for males and females were 11.9 and 10.6 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Kaplan - Meier estimates showed that literacy and being female were both favourable for survival throughout adulthood. Cox's regression models showed that age, gender, literacy and area (rural lowland, rural highland and urban) were significant factors in survival: younger, female, literate urban dwellers were the most favoured. Gender differences in mortality were small in the rural areas, possibly because of the harsh living conditions and the marginalization of women. Literacy was a more significant factor for survival in the rural areas, where mortality was highest, while gender was more important in the one urban area studied. The levels of literacy were lowest among rural females. CONCLUSION: Special attention should be given to raising literacy levels among rural women with a view to improving their survival. PMID:12378289

Dynamic frailty models based on compound birth-death processes.

PubMed

Putter, Hein; van Houwelingen, Hans C

2015-07-01

Frailty models are used in survival analysis to model unobserved heterogeneity. They accommodate such heterogeneity by the inclusion of a random term, the frailty, which is assumed to multiply the hazard of a subject (individual frailty) or the hazards of all subjects in a cluster (shared frailty). Typically, the frailty term is assumed to be constant over time. This is a restrictive assumption and extensions to allow for time-varying or dynamic frailties are of interest. In this paper, we extend the auto-correlated frailty models of Henderson and Shimakura and of Fiocco, Putter and van Houwelingen, developed for longitudinal count data and discrete survival data, to continuous survival data. We present a rigorous construction of the frailty processes in continuous time based on compound birth-death processes. When the frailty processes are used as mixtures in models for survival data, we derive the marginal hazards and survival functions and the marginal bivariate survival functions and cross-ratio function. We derive distributional properties of the processes, conditional on observed data, and show how to obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model using a (stochastic) expectation-maximization algorithm. The methods are applied to a publicly available data set. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nonparametric estimation of median survival times with applications to multi-site or multi-center studies.

PubMed

Rahbar, Mohammad H; Choi, Sangbum; Hong, Chuan; Zhu, Liang; Jeon, Sangchoon; Gardiner, Joseph C

2018-01-01

We propose a nonparametric shrinkage estimator for the median survival times from several independent samples of right-censored data, which combines the samples and hypothesis information to improve the efficiency. We compare efficiency of the proposed shrinkage estimation procedure to unrestricted estimator and combined estimator through extensive simulation studies. Our results indicate that performance of these estimators depends on the strength of homogeneity of the medians. When homogeneity holds, the combined estimator is the most efficient estimator. However, it becomes inconsistent when homogeneity fails. On the other hand, the proposed shrinkage estimator remains efficient. Its efficiency decreases as the equality of the survival medians is deviated, but is expected to be as good as or equal to the unrestricted estimator. Our simulation studies also indicate that the proposed shrinkage estimator is robust to moderate levels of censoring. We demonstrate application of these methods to estimating median time for trauma patients to receive red blood cells in the Prospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study.

Nonparametric estimation of median survival times with applications to multi-site or multi-center studies

PubMed Central

Choi, Sangbum; Hong, Chuan; Zhu, Liang; Jeon, Sangchoon; Gardiner, Joseph C.

2018-01-01

We propose a nonparametric shrinkage estimator for the median survival times from several independent samples of right-censored data, which combines the samples and hypothesis information to improve the efficiency. We compare efficiency of the proposed shrinkage estimation procedure to unrestricted estimator and combined estimator through extensive simulation studies. Our results indicate that performance of these estimators depends on the strength of homogeneity of the medians. When homogeneity holds, the combined estimator is the most efficient estimator. However, it becomes inconsistent when homogeneity fails. On the other hand, the proposed shrinkage estimator remains efficient. Its efficiency decreases as the equality of the survival medians is deviated, but is expected to be as good as or equal to the unrestricted estimator. Our simulation studies also indicate that the proposed shrinkage estimator is robust to moderate levels of censoring. We demonstrate application of these methods to estimating median time for trauma patients to receive red blood cells in the Prospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study. PMID:29772007

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ploskey, Gene R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Carlson, Thomas J.

The purpose of this study was to estimate dam passage and route specific survival rates for subyearling Chinook salmon smolts to a primary survival-detection array located 81 km downstream of the dam, evaluate a BGS located in the B2 forebay, and evaluate effects of two spill treatments. The 2010 study also provided estimates of forebay residence time, tailrace egress time, spill passage efficiency (SPE), and spill + B2 Corner Collector (B2CC) efficiency, as required in the Columbia Basin Fish Accords. In addition, the study estimated forebay passage survival and survival of fish traveling from the forebay entrance array, through themore » dam and downstream through 81 km of tailwater.« less

Current estimates of the cure fraction: a feasibility study of statistical cure for breast and colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Stedman, Margaret R; Feuer, Eric J; Mariotto, Angela B

2014-11-01

The probability of cure is a long-term prognostic measure of cancer survival. Estimates of the cure fraction, the proportion of patients "cured" of the disease, are based on extrapolating survival models beyond the range of data. The objective of this work is to evaluate the sensitivity of cure fraction estimates to model choice and study design. Data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-9 registries to construct a cohort of breast and colorectal cancer patients diagnosed from 1975 to 1985. In a sensitivity analysis, cure fraction estimates are compared from different study designs with short- and long-term follow-up. Methods tested include: cause-specific and relative survival, parametric mixture, and flexible models. In a separate analysis, estimates are projected for 2008 diagnoses using study designs including the full cohort (1975-2008 diagnoses) and restricted to recent diagnoses (1998-2008) with follow-up to 2009. We show that flexible models often provide higher estimates of the cure fraction compared to parametric mixture models. Log normal models generate lower estimates than Weibull parametric models. In general, 12 years is enough follow-up time to estimate the cure fraction for regional and distant stage colorectal cancer but not for breast cancer. 2008 colorectal cure projections show a 15% increase in the cure fraction since 1985. Estimates of the cure fraction are model and study design dependent. It is best to compare results from multiple models and examine model fit to determine the reliability of the estimate. Early-stage cancers are sensitive to survival type and follow-up time because of their longer survival. More flexible models are susceptible to slight fluctuations in the shape of the survival curve which can influence the stability of the estimate; however, stability may be improved by lengthening follow-up and restricting the cohort to reduce heterogeneity in the data. Published by Oxford University Press 2014.

One-step global parameter estimation of kinetic inactivation parameters for Bacillus sporothermodurans spores under static and dynamic thermal processes.

PubMed

Cattani, F; Dolan, K D; Oliveira, S D; Mishra, D K; Ferreira, C A S; Periago, P M; Aznar, A; Fernandez, P S; Valdramidis, V P

2016-11-01

Bacillus sporothermodurans produces highly heat-resistant endospores, that can survive under ultra-high temperature. High heat-resistant sporeforming bacteria are one of the main causes for spoilage and safety of low-acid foods. They can be used as indicators or surrogates to establish the minimum requirements for heat processes, but it is necessary to understand their thermal inactivation kinetics. The aim of the present work was to study the inactivation kinetics under both static and dynamic conditions in a vegetable soup. Ordinary least squares one-step regression and sequential procedures were applied for estimating these parameters. Results showed that multiple dynamic heating profiles, when analyzed simultaneously, can be used to accurately estimate the kinetic parameters while significantly reducing estimation errors and data collection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival estimates for reintroduced populations of the Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, Paige E; Hossack, Blake R.; Muths, Erin L.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Chandler, Richard B.

2016-01-01

Global amphibian declines have been attributed to a number of factors including disease, invasive species, habitat degradation, and climate change. Reintroduction is one management action that is commonly used with the goal of recovering imperiled species. The success of reintroductions varies widely, and evaluating their efficacy requires estimates of population viability metrics, such as underlying vital rates and trends in abundance. Although rarely quantified, assessing vital rates for recovering populations provides a more mechanistic understanding of population growth than numerical trends in population occupancy or abundance. We used three years of capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding ponds and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival for reintroduced populations of the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis) at the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), in the Altar Valley, Arizona, USA. To place our results in context, we also compiled published survival estimates for other ranids. Average apparent survival of Chiricahua Leopard Frogs at BANWR was 0.27 (95% CI [0.07, 0.74]) and average individual capture probability was 0.02 (95% CI [0, 0.05]). Our apparent survival estimate for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs is lower than for most other ranids and is not consistent with recent research that showed metapopulation viability in the Altar Valley is high. We suggest that low apparent survival may be indicative of high emigration rates. We recommend that future research should estimate emigration rates so that actual, rather than apparent, survival can be quantified to improve population viability assessments of threatened species following reintroduction efforts.

Population-specific demographic estimates provide insights into declines of Lark Buntings (Calamospiza melanocorys)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackel Adams, A.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Savidge, J.A.

2007-01-01

Many North American prairie bird populations have recently declined, and the causes of these declines remain largely unknown. To determine whether population limitation occurs during breeding, we evaluated the stability of a population of prairie birds using population-specific values for fecundity and postfledging survival. During 2001-2003, we radiomarked 67 female Lark Buntings (Calamospiza melanocorys) to determine annual fecundity and evaluate contributing factors such as nest survival and breeding response (number of breeding attempts and dispersal). Collectively, 67 females built 112 nests (1.67 ± 0.07 nests female−1 season−1; range: 1–3); 34 were second nests and 11 were third nests. Daily nest survival estimates were similar for initial and later nests with overall nest survival (DSR19) of 30.7% and 31.7%, respectively. Nest predation was the most common cause of failure (92%). Capture and radiomarking of females did not affect nest survival. Lark Bunting dispersal probabilities increased among females that fledged young from initial nests and females that lost their original nests late in the season. Conservative and liberal estimates of mean annual fecundity were 0.96 ±0.11 and 1.24 ± 0.09 female offspring per female, respectively. Given the fecundity and juvenile-survival estimates for this population, annual adult survival values of 71–77% are necessary to achieve a stable population. Because adult survival of prairie passerines ranges between 55% and 65%, this study area may not be capable of sustaining a stable population in the absence of immigration. We contrast our population assessment with one that assumes indirect values of fecundity and juvenile survival. To elucidate limiting factors, estimation of population-specific demographic parameters is desirable. We present an approach for selecting species and areas for evaluation of population stability.

Eliminating Survivor Bias in Two-stage Instrumental Variable Estimators.

PubMed

Vansteelandt, Stijn; Walter, Stefan; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric

2018-07-01

Mendelian randomization studies commonly focus on elderly populations. This makes the instrumental variables analysis of such studies sensitive to survivor bias, a type of selection bias. A particular concern is that the instrumental variable conditions, even when valid for the source population, may be violated for the selective population of individuals who survive the onset of the study. This is potentially very damaging because Mendelian randomization studies are known to be sensitive to bias due to even minor violations of the instrumental variable conditions. Interestingly, the instrumental variable conditions continue to hold within certain risk sets of individuals who are still alive at a given age when the instrument and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the exposure, and moreover, the exposure and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the hazard of death. In this article, we will exploit this property to derive a two-stage instrumental variable estimator for the effect of exposure on mortality, which is insulated against the above described selection bias under these additivity assumptions.

A computer program for sample size computations for banding studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, K.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

1989-01-01

Sample sizes necessary for estimating survival rates of banded birds, adults and young, are derived based on specified levels of precision. The banding study can be new or ongoing. The desired coefficient of variation (CV) for annual survival estimates, the CV for mean annual survival estimates, and the length of the study must be specified to compute sample sizes. A computer program is available for computation of the sample sizes, and a description of the input and output is provided.

Patent ductus arteriosus ligation in premature infants in the United States.

PubMed

Tashiro, Jun; Wang, Bo; Sola, Juan E; Hogan, Anthony R; Neville, Holly L; Perez, Eduardo A

2014-08-01

Patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) is a condition that commonly affects premature and low birth weight (BW) infants at times necessitating surgical intervention. We examined outcomes after surgical ligation (SL). We analyzed the Kids' Inpatient Database for premature infants diagnosed with PDA, admitted at <8 d of age. Patient demographics, disposition, morbidity, and mortality were analyzed. All cases were weighted appropriately to project nationally representative estimates. A total of 63,208 patients were identified with diagnosis of PDA. Of these, 6766 (10.7%) underwent SL. Lower gestational age (GA) and BW patients had higher incidence of PDA and rates of SL. Overall survival was 90.8% for the cohort. Survival for the SL group was 88.0% and 91.2% for the non-SL group; however, infants undergoing SL had higher survival rates up to 28 wk and 1250 g for GA and BW, respectively. GA did not affect post-SL survival adversely. Rather, lower BW was associated with extremely high mortality rates. Black infants and boys had lower survival compared with other races and girls, respectively. Larger hospitals had higher survival rates, but hospital location, teaching status, and type did not affect survival. Payer status and income quartile did not affect survival. PDA and SL are more common in lower BW and GA groups. Higher survival rates are found for infants with SL versus non-SL in the lowest BW and GA groups. Morbidity and mortality are not affected by SL timing. BW, rather than GA, determines survival of infants undergoing SL. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conditional long-term survival following minimally invasive robotic mitral valve repair: a health services perspective.

PubMed

Efird, Jimmy T; Griffin, William F; Gudimella, Preeti; O'Neal, Wesley T; Davies, Stephen W; Crane, Patricia B; Anderson, Ethan J; Kindell, Linda C; Landrine, Hope; O'Neal, Jason B; Alwair, Hazaim; Kypson, Alan P; Nifong, Wiley L; Chitwood, W Randolph

2015-09-01

Conditional survival is defined as the probability of surviving an additional number of years beyond that already survived. The aim of this study was to compute conditional survival in patients who received a robotically assisted, minimally invasive mitral valve repair procedure (RMVP). Patients who received RMVP with annuloplasty band from May 2000 through April 2011 were included. A 5- and 10-year conditional survival model was computed using a multivariable product-limit method. Non-smoking men (≤65 years) who presented in sinus rhythm had a 96% probability of surviving at least 10 years if they survived their first year following surgery. In contrast, recent female smokers (>65 years) with preoperative atrial fibrillation only had an 11% probability of surviving beyond 10 years if alive after one year post-surgery. In the context of an increasingly managed healthcare environment, conditional survival provides useful information for patients needing to make important treatment decisions, physicians seeking to select patients most likely to benefit long-term following RMVP, and hospital administrators needing to comparatively assess the life-course economic value of high-tech surgical procedures.

Challenges in the estimation of Net SURvival: The CENSUR working survival group.

PubMed

Giorgi, R

2016-10-01

Net survival, the survival probability that would be observed, in a hypothetical world, where the cancer of interest would be the only possible cause of death, is a key indicator in population-based cancer studies. Accounting for mortality due to other causes, it allows cross-country comparisons or trends analysis and provides a useful indicator for public health decision-making. The objective of this study was to show how the creation and formalization of a network comprising established research teams, which already had substantial and complementary experience in both cancer survival analysis and methodological development, make it possible to meet challenges and thus provide more adequate tools, to improve the quality and the comparability of cancer survival data, and to promote methodological transfers in areas of emerging interest. The Challenges in the Estimation of Net SURvival (CENSUR) working survival group is composed of international researchers highly skilled in biostatistics, methodology, and epidemiology, from different research organizations in France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Slovenia, and Canada, and involved in French (FRANCIM) and European (EUROCARE) cancer registry networks. The expected advantages are an interdisciplinary, international, synergistic network capable of addressing problems in public health, for decision-makers at different levels; tools for those in charge of net survival analyses; a common methodology that makes unbiased cross-national comparisons of cancer survival feasible; transfer of methods for net survival estimations to other specific applications (clinical research, occupational epidemiology); and dissemination of results during an international training course. The formalization of the international CENSUR working survival group was motivated by a need felt by scientists conducting population-based cancer research to discuss, develop, and monitor implementation of a common methodology to analyze net survival in order to provide useful information for cancer control and cancer policy. A "team science" approach is necessary to address new challenges concerning the estimation of net survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Pseudo and conditional score approach to joint analysis of current count and current status data.

PubMed

Wen, Chi-Chung; Chen, Yi-Hau

2018-04-17

We develop a joint analysis approach for recurrent and nonrecurrent event processes subject to case I interval censorship, which are also known in literature as current count and current status data, respectively. We use a shared frailty to link the recurrent and nonrecurrent event processes, while leaving the distribution of the frailty fully unspecified. Conditional on the frailty, the recurrent event is assumed to follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, and the mean function of the recurrent event and the survival function of the nonrecurrent event are assumed to follow some general form of semiparametric transformation models. Estimation of the models is based on the pseudo-likelihood and the conditional score techniques. The resulting estimators for the regression parameters and the unspecified baseline functions are shown to be consistent with rates of square and cubic roots of the sample size, respectively. Asymptotic normality with closed-form asymptotic variance is derived for the estimator of the regression parameters. We apply the proposed method to a fracture-osteoporosis survey data to identify risk factors jointly for fracture and osteoporosis in elders, while accounting for association between the two events within a subject. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Predictors of Long-Term Survival Following Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery: Results from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (The ASCERT Study)

PubMed Central

Shahian, David M.; O'Brien, Sean M.; Sheng, Shubin; Grover, Frederick L.; Mayer, John E.; Jacobs, Jeffrey P.; Weiss, Jocelyn M.; DeLong, Elizabeth R.; Peterson, Eric D.; Weintraub, William S.; Grau-Sepulveda, Maria V.; Klein, Lloyd W.; Shaw, Richard E.; Garratt, Kirk; Moussa, Issam; Shewan, Cynthia M.; Dangas, George D.; Edwards, Fred H.

2012-01-01

Background Most survival prediction models for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG) are limited to in-hospital or 30-day endpoints. We estimate a long-term survival model using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Methods and Results The final study cohort included 348,341 isolated CABG patients ≥ 65 years of age, discharged between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2007 from 917 STS-participating hospitals, randomly divided into training (n = 174,506) and validation (n = 173,835) samples. Through linkage with CMS claims data, we ascertained vital status from date of surgery through December 31, 2008 (1 – 6 year follow-up). Because the proportional hazards assumption was violated, we fit four Cox regression models conditional on being alive at the beginning of the following intervals: 0 –30 days, 31 – 180 days, 181 days – 2 years, > 2 years. Kaplan-Meier estimated mortality was 3.2% at 30 days, 6.4% at 180 days, 8.1% at one-year, and 23.3% at 3 years of follow-up. Harrell's C statistic for predicting overall survival time was 0.732. Some risk factors (e.g., emergency status, shock, reoperation) were strong predictors of short-term outcome but, for early survivors, became non-significant within 2 years. The adverse impact of some other risk factors (e.g., dialysis-dependent renal failure, insulin-dependent diabetes) continued to increase. Conclusions Using clinical registry data and longitudinal claims data, we developed a long-term survival prediction model for isolated CABG. This provides valuable information for shared decision-making, comparative effectiveness research, quality improvement, and provider profiling. PMID:22361330

A practical divergence measure for survival distributions that can be estimated from Kaplan-Meier curves.

PubMed

Cox, Trevor F; Czanner, Gabriela

2016-06-30

This paper introduces a new simple divergence measure between two survival distributions. For two groups of patients, the divergence measure between their associated survival distributions is based on the integral of the absolute difference in probabilities that a patient from one group dies at time t and a patient from the other group survives beyond time t and vice versa. In the case of non-crossing hazard functions, the divergence measure is closely linked to the Harrell concordance index, C, the Mann-Whitney test statistic and the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve. The measure can be used in a dynamic way where the divergence between two survival distributions from time zero up to time t is calculated enabling real-time monitoring of treatment differences. The divergence can be found for theoretical survival distributions or can be estimated non-parametrically from survival data using Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survivor functions. The estimator of the divergence is shown to be generally unbiased and approximately normally distributed. For the case of proportional hazards, the constituent parts of the divergence measure can be used to assess the proportional hazards assumption. The use of the divergence measure is illustrated on the survival of pancreatic cancer patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rigid shells enhance survival of gekkotan eggs.

PubMed

Andrews, Robin M

2015-11-01

The majority of lizards and snakes produce permeable parchment-shelled eggs that require high moisture conditions for successful embryonic development. One clade of gekkotan lizards is an exception; females produce relatively impermeable rigid-shelled eggs that normally incubate successfully under low moisture conditions. I tested the hypothesis that the rigid-shell increases egg survival during incubation, but only under low moisture conditions. To test this hypothesis, I incubated rigid-shelled eggs of Chondrodactylus turneri under low and under high moisture conditions. Eggs were incubated with parchment-shelled eggs of Eublepharis macularius to insure that incubation conditions were suitable for parchment-shelled eggs. Chondrodactylus turneri eggs had very high survival (>90%) when they were incubated under low moisture conditions. In contrast, eggs incubated under high moisture conditions had low survival overall, and lower survival than those of the parchment-shelled eggs of E. macularius. Mortality of C. turneri and E. macularius eggs incubated under high moisture conditions was the result of fungal infection, a common source of egg mortality for squamates under laboratory and field conditions. These observations document high survival of rigid-shelled eggs under low moisture conditions because eggs escape from fungal infection. Highly mineralized rigid shells also make egg survival independent of moisture availability and may also provide protection from small invertebrates in nature. Enhanced egg survival could thus compensate for the low reproductive output of gekkotans that produce rigid-shelled eggs. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Population ecology of the mallard VIII: Winter distribution patterns and survival rates of winter-banded mallards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.

1987-01-01

In the present report we address questions about winter distribution patterns and survival rates of North American mallards Anas platyrhynchos. Inferences are based on analyses of banding and recovery data from both winter and preseason banding period. The primary wintering range of the mallard was dividded into 45 minor reference areas and 15 major reference areas which were used to summarize winter banding data. Descriptive tables and figures on the recovery distributions of winter-banded mallards are presented. Using winter recoveries of preseason-banded mallards, we found apparent differences between recovery distribution of young versus adult birds from the same breeding ground reference areas. However, we found no sex-specific differences in winter recovery distribution patterns. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded birds also provided evidence that mallards exhibited some degree of year-to-year variation in wintering ground location. The age- and sex-specificity of such variation was tested using winter recoveries of winter-banded birds, and results indicated that subadult (first year) birds were less likely to return to the same wintering grounds the following year than adults. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded mallards during 1950-58 differed from distributions in 1966-76. These differences could have resulted from either true distributional shifts or geographic changes in hunting pressure. Survival and recovery rates were estimated from winter banding data. We found no evidence of differences in survival or recovery rates between subadult and adult mallards. Thus, the substantial difference between survival rates of preseason-banded young and adult mallards must result almost entirely from higher mortality of young birds during the approximate period, August-January. Male mallards showed higher survival than females, corroborating inferences based on preseason data. Tests with winter banding and band recovery data indicated some degree of year-to-year variation in both survival and recovery rates, a result again consistent with inference from preseason data. Some evidence indication geographic variation in survival rates; however, there were no consistent directional differences between survival rates of mallards from adjacent northern versus southern areas, or eastern versus western areas. In some comparisons, Central Flyway mallards exhibited slightly higher survival rates than mallards from other flyways. Weighted mean estimates of continental survival rates were computed for the period 1960-77 from both winter banding data and preseason banding of adults. Resulting estimates differed significantly for males, but not for females, and the magnitude of the difference between point estimates was relatively small, even for males. The direction of the difference between these estimates was predicted correctly from previous work on the effects of heterogeneous survival an d recovery rates on band recovery model estimates. The similarity of survival estimates from these two independent data sets supports the believe that biases in these estimates are relatively small.

Application of HRV-CD for estimation of life expectancy in various clinical disorders.

PubMed

Almoznino-Sarafian, Dorit; Sarafian, Gideon; Zyssman, Itzhak; Shteinshnaider, Miriam; Tzur, Irma; Kaplan, Ben-Zion; Berman, Sylvia; Cohen, Natan; Gorelik, Oleg

2009-12-01

Low heart rate variability (HRV) was found in various medical conditions including heart failure and acute myocardial infarction. Decreased HRV in these conditions predicted poor prognosis. HRV was estimated in 133 unselected inpatients with relevant clinical bedside conditions by non-linear analysis derived from chaos theory, which calculates the correlation dimension (CD) of the cardiac electrophysiologic system (HRV-CD). Mean HRV-CD in the entire group was 3.75+/-0.45. Heart failure, coronary artery disease, cardiac arrhythmia, low serum potassium, renal dysfunction, and diabetes mellitus were significantly associated with reduced HRV-CD compared to their counterparts [3.6 vs. 3.9 (P<.001), 3.65 vs. 3.87 (P=.005), 3.58 vs. 3.8 (P=.01), 3.38 vs. 3.81 (P=.02), 3.59 vs. 3.8 (P=.04), and 3.66 vs. 3.82 (P=.04), respectively]. Stepwise logistic regression showed heart failure to be the condition most significantly associated with low HRV-CD (odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 1.90-9.28, P<.001). In the entire group, decreased HRV-CD (< or =3.75 vs. >3.75) was associated with lower survival (P=.01). Mortality of diabetic patients with HRV-CD < or =3.75 exceeded the mortality in patients with HRV-CD >3.75 (P=.02). Heart failure, renal dysfunction or age over 70 combined with HRV-CD < or =3.75 also appeared to be associated with augmented mortality. Diminished HRV-CD is associated with heart failure, coronary artery disease, cardiac arrhythmia, renal dysfunction, diabetes mellitus and low serum potassium. Among the latter, heart failure is most significantly associated with decreased HRV-CD. Decreased HRV-CD values, especially in diabetics, are also associated with lower survival.

Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Zaba, Basia; Kasamba, Ivan; Floyd, Sian; Isingo, Raphael; Herbst, Kobus; Bärnighausen, Till; Gregson, Simon; Nyamukapa, Constance; Kayuni, Ndoliwe; Todd, Jim; Marston, Milly; Wringe, Alison

2012-08-01

To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Effects of neck bands on survival of greater snow geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Menu, S.; Hestbeck, J.B.; Gauthier, G.; Reed, A.

2000-01-01

Neck bands are a widely used marker in goose research. However, few studies have investigated a possible negative effect of this marker on survival. We tested the effect of neck bands on the survival of adult female greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica) by marking birds with either a neck band and a metal leg band or a leg band only on Bylot Island (Nunavut, formerly included in the Northwest Territories, Canada) from 1990 to 1996. Annual survival was estimated using leg-band recoveries in fall and winter and using neck-band sightings in spring and fall. Recapture rates were estimated using summer recaptures. Using recovery data, the selected model yielded a survival similar for the neck-banded and leg-banded only birds (S = 0.845 ?? 0.070 vs. S = 0.811 ?? 0.107). The hypothesis of equality of survival between the 2 groups was easily accepted under most constraints imposed on survival or recovery rates. However, failure to account for a different direct recovery rate for neck-banded birds would lead us to incorrectly conclude a possible negative effect of neck bands on survival. Using sighting data, mean annual survival of neck-banded birds was independently estimated at 0.833 ?? 0.057, a value very similar to that estimated with band-recovery analysis. Raw recapture rates during summer were significantly lower for neck-banded birds compared to those marked with leg bands only (4.6% vs. 12.1%), but in this analysis, survival, site fidelity, reproductive status, and recapture rates were confounded. We conclude that neck bands did not affect survival of greater snow geese, but could possibly affect other demographic traits such as breeding propensity and emigration.

Effect of delayed reporting of band recoveries on survival estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, David R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

1980-01-01

Brownie et al. (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., Resource Publ. 131, 1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the study of survival in avian populations. These methods are replacing the life table methods previously used to estimate survival rates (e.g., Burnham and Anderson, J. Wildl. Manage., 43: 356-366, 1979). The new methods allow survival or recovery rates, or both, to be constant, time-specific, or time- and age-specific. In studies to estimate survival rates for birds the data are often from recoveries of birds shot or found dead during the hunting season and reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory by sportsmen, conservation agency employees, or the general public. This note examines the bias in estimating annual survival due to a proportion of the recoveries being incorrectly reported a year late. Specifically, a few recoveries each year of, for example, adult male American Widgeon (Anas americana) banded in California are reported as being recovered in year i + 1 when in fact they were actually recovered the previous year i. Delayed reporting might typically be caused by people finding a band in their health clothing in the fall of the year and, being embarrassed about their failure to report the band when it was taken, report it a year late not mentioning the actual year of recovery. Heuristically, delayed reporting should bias estimated annual survival rates upwards because it appears from the data that the birds corresponding to the "delayed" recoveries actually lived an additional year.

Compliance Monitoring of Juvenile Yearling Chinook Salmon and Steelhead Survival and Passage at The Dalles Dam, Spring 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carlson, Thomas J.; Skalski, John R.

2010-10-01

The purpose of this compliance study was to estimate dam passage survival of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts at The Dalles Dam during spring 2010. Under the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) Biological Opinion (BiOp), dam passage survival should be greater than or equal to 0.96 and estimated with a standard error (SE) less than or equal 0.015. The study also estimated smolt passage survival from the forebay boat-restricted zone (BRZ) to the tailrace BRZ at The Dalles Dam, as well as the forebay residence time, tailrace egress, and spill passage efficiency (SPE), as required in themore » Columbia Basin Fish Accords. A virtual/paired-release design was used to estimate dam passage survival at The Dalles Dam. The approach included releases of acoustic-tagged smolts above John Day Dam that contributed to the formation of a virtual release at the face of The Dalles Dam. A survival estimate from this release was adjusted by a paired release below The Dalles Dam. A total of 4,298 yearling Chinook salmon and 4,309 steelhead smolts were tagged and released in the investigation. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) tag model number ATS-156dB, weighing 0.438 g in air, was used in this investigation. The dam passage survival results are summarized as follows: Yearling Chinook Salmon 0.9641 (SE = 0.0096) and Steelhead 0.9535 (SE = 0.0097).« less

Assessment of Subyearling Chinook Salmon Survival through the Federal Hydropower Projects in the Main-Stem Columbia River

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skalski, J. R.; Eppard, M. B.; Ploskey, Gene R.

2014-07-11

High survival through hydropower projects is an essential element in the recovery of salmonid populations in the Columbia River. It is also a regulatory requirement under the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) Biological Opinion (BiOp) established under the Endangered Species Act. It requires dam passage survival to be ≥0.96 and ≥0.93 for spring and summer outmigrating juvenile salmonids, respectively, and estimated with a standard error ≤ 0.015. An innovative virtual/paired-release design was used to estimate dam passage survival, defined as survival from the face of a dam to the tailrace mixing zone. A coordinated four-dam study was conductedmore » during the 2012 summer outmigration using 14,026 run-of-river subyearling Chinook salmon surgically implanted with acoustic micro-transmitter (AMT) tags released at 9 different locations, and monitored on 14 different detection arrays. Each of the four estimates of dam passage survival exceeded BiOp requirements with values ranging from 0.9414 to 0.9747 and standard errors, 0.0031 to 0.0114. Two consecutive years of survival estimates must meet BiOp standards in order for a hydropower project to be in compliance with recovery requirements for a fish stock.« less

Semiparametric temporal process regression of survival-out-of-hospital.

PubMed

Zhan, Tianyu; Schaubel, Douglas E

2018-05-23

The recurrent/terminal event data structure has undergone considerable methodological development in the last 10-15 years. An example of the data structure that has arisen with increasing frequency involves the recurrent event being hospitalization and the terminal event being death. We consider the response Survival-Out-of-Hospital, defined as a temporal process (indicator function) taking the value 1 when the subject is currently alive and not hospitalized, and 0 otherwise. Survival-Out-of-Hospital is a useful alternative strategy for the analysis of hospitalization/survival in the chronic disease setting, with the response variate representing a refinement to survival time through the incorporation of an objective quality-of-life component. The semiparametric model we consider assumes multiplicative covariate effects and leaves unspecified the baseline probability of being alive-and-out-of-hospital. Using zero-mean estimating equations, the proposed regression parameter estimator can be computed without estimating the unspecified baseline probability process, although baseline probabilities can subsequently be estimated for any time point within the support of the censoring distribution. We demonstrate that the regression parameter estimator is asymptotically normal, and that the baseline probability function estimator converges to a Gaussian process. Simulation studies are performed to show that our estimating procedures have satisfactory finite sample performances. The proposed methods are applied to the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS), an international end-stage renal disease study.

Movement and survival of an amphibian in relation to sediment and culvert design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Honeycutt, R.K; Lowe, W.H.; Hossack, Blake R.

2016-01-01

Habitat disturbance from stream culverts can affect aquatic organisms by increasing sedimentation or forming barriers to movement. Land managers are replacing many culverts to reduce these negative effects, primarily for stream fishes. However, these management actions are likely to have broad implications for many organisms, including amphibians in small streams. To assess the effects of culverts on movement and survival of the Idaho giant salamander (Dicamptodon aterrimus), we used capture-mark-recapture surveys and measured sediment in streams with 2 culvert types (i.e., unimproved culverts, improved culverts) and in streams without culverts (i.e., reference streams). We predicted culverts would increase stream sediment levels, limit movement, and reduce survival of Idaho giant salamanders. We also determined the effect of sediment levels on survival of salamanders because although sediment is often associated with distribution and abundance of stream amphibians, links with vital rates remain unclear. To estimate survival, we used a spatial Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model that explicitly incorporated information on movement, eliminating bias in apparent survival estimated from traditional (i.e., non-spatial) CJS models caused by permanent emigration beyond the study area. To demonstrate the importance of using spatial data in studies of wildlife populations, we compared estimates from the spatial CJS to estimates of apparent survival from a traditional CJS model. Although high levels of sediment reduced survival of salamanders, culvert type was unrelated to sediment levels or true survival of salamanders. Across all streams, we documented only 15 movement events between study reaches. All movement events were downstream, and they occurred disproportionately in 1 stream, which precluded measuring the effect of culvert design on movement. Although movement was low overall, the variance among streams was high enough to bias estimates of apparent survival compared to true survival. Our results suggest that where sedimentation occurs from roads and culverts, survival of the Idaho giant salamander could be reduced. Though culverts clearly do not completely block downstream movements of Idaho giant salamanders, the degree to which culvert improvements affect movements under roads in comparison to unimproved culverts remains unclear, especially for rare, but potentially important, upstream movements.

Survival and harvest-related mortality of white-tailed deer in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mcdonald, John E.; DeStefano, Stephen; Gaughan, Christopher; Mayer, Michael; Woytek, William A.; Christensen, Sonja; Fuller, Todd K.

2011-01-01

We monitored 142 radiocollared adult (≥1.0 yr old) white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in 3 study areas of Massachusetts, USA, to estimate annual survival and mortality due to legal hunting. We then applied these rates to deer harvest information to estimate deer population trends over time, and compared these to trends derived solely from harvest data estimates. Estimated adult female survival rates were similar (0.82–0.86), and uniformly high, across 3 management zones in Massachusetts that differed in landscape composition, human density, and harvest regulations. Legal hunting accounted for 16–29% of all adult female mortality. Estimated adult male survival rates varied from 0.55 to 0.79, and legal hunting accounted for 40–75% of all mortality. Use of composite hunting mortality rates produced realistic estimates for adult deer populations in 2 zones, but not for the third, where estimation was hindered by regulatory restrictions on antlerless deer harvest. In addition, the population estimates we calculated were generally higher than those derived from population reconstruction, likely due to relatively low harvest pressure. Legal harvest may not be the dominant form of deer mortality in developed landscapes; thus, estimates of populations or trends that rely solely on harvest data will likely be underestimates.

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Survival of female black ducks, Anas rubripes, during the breeding season

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringelman, J.K.; Longcore, J.R.

1983-01-01

The Mayfield method was used to estimate the survival rate of 19 radio-marked, female Black Ducks (Anas rubripes) in southcentral Maine during 1977-80. An overall survival rate of 0.74 was estimated for the 121-day monitoring period that included the pre-laying and laying, incubation, brood rearing, and post-rearing stages. No differences in survival rates were detected among these stages. Two instrumented hens were killed by Red-shouldered Hawks (Buteo lineatus) and a third was killed by an unknown predator. We found no evidence that the attachment of radio transmitters affected hen survival.

Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models.

PubMed

Andersson, Therese M L; Dickman, Paul W; Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C

2011-06-22

When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. © 2011 Andersson et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Methods Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. Results We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Conclusions Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. PMID:21696598

Survival and migration behavior of juvenile salmonids at Lower Granite Dam, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Fielding, Scott D.; Braatz, Amy C.; Wilkerson, Tamara S.; Pope, Adam C.; Walker, Christopher E.; Hardiman, Jill M.; Perry, Russell W.; Counihan, Timothy D.

2008-01-01

We described behavior and estimated passage and survival parameters of juvenile salmonids during spring and summer migration periods at Lower Granite Dam in 2006. During the spring, the study was designed to examine the effects of the Behavioral Guidance Structure (BGS) by using a randomized-block BGS Stored / BGS Deployed treatment design. The summer study was designed to compare passage and survival through Lower Granite Dam using a randomized-block design during two spill treatments while the BGS was in the stored position. We used the Route Specific Survival Model to estimate survival and passage probabilities of hatchery yearling Chinook salmon, hatchery juvenile steelhead, and hatchery and wild subyearling Chinook salmon. We also estimated fish guidance efficiency (FGE), fish passage efficiency (FPE), Removable Spillway Weir passage effectiveness (RPE), spill passage effectiveness (SPY), and combined spill and RSW passage effectiveness.

Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

PubMed

2011-01-01

In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

2000-01-01

Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] <2 %) and confidence interval coverage close to nominal, except for survival estimates of banded birds for the 'off study area' stratum, which were negatively biased (RBIAS -7 to -15%) when sample sizes were small (5-10 banded or radioed animals 'released' per time interval). To provide adequate data for useful inference from this model, study designs should seek a minimum of 25 animals of each marking type observed (marked or observed via telemetry) in each time period and geographic stratum.

Adult survival and productivity of Northern Fulmars in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Scott A.

1987-01-01

The population dynamics of Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) were studied at the Semidi Islands in the western Gulf of Alaska. Fulmars occurred in a broad range of color phases, and annual survival was estimated from the return of birds in the rarer plumage classes. A raw estimate of mean annual survival over a 5-year period was 0.963, but a removal experiment indicated the raw value was probably biased downward. The estimate of annual survival adjusted accordingly was 0.969. Mortality during the breeding season was less than 10% of the annual total, and postbreeding mortality of failed breeders was three to four times higher than that of successful breeders. Breeding success averaged 41% over 9 years. About 5% of experienced birds failed to breed each year due to physical destruction of their breeding sites, mate-loss, or other causes. An estimated 30% of the birds near the colony in one year were of prebreeding age. A comparison of population parameters in Pacific and Atlantic fulmars indicates that higher survival in the prebreeding years is the likely basis for population growth in the northeastern Atlantic. The correlation of breeding success and survival suggests both parameters may decline with age.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.

PubMed

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B; Van den Brink, Paul J; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I; Preuss, Thomas G

2016-07-06

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; van den Brink, Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.

2016-07-01

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Survival of timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) estimated by capture-recapture models in relation to age, sex, color morph, time, and birthplace

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, W.S.; Kery, M.; Hines, J.E.

2007-01-01

Juvenile survival is one of the least known elements of the life history of many species, in particular snakes. We conducted a mark–recapture study of Crotalus horridus from 1978–2002 in northeastern New York near the northern limits of the species' range. We marked 588 neonates and estimated annual age-, sex-, and morph-specific recapture and survival rates using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. Wild-caught neonates (field-born, n  =  407) and neonates produced by captive-held gravid females (lab-born, n  =  181) allowed comparison of the birthplace, or lab treatment effect, in estimated survival. Recapture rates declined from about 10–20% over time while increasing from young to older age classes. Estimated survival rates (S ± 1 SE) in the first year were significantly higher among field-born (black morph: S  =  0.773 ± 0.203; yellow morph: S  =  0.531 ± 0.104) than among lab-born snakes (black morph: S  =  0.411 ± 0.131; yellow morph: S  =  0.301 ± 0.081). Lower birth weights combined with a lack of field exposure until release apparently contributed to the lower survival rate of lab-born snakes. Subsequent survival estimates for 2–4-yr-old snakes were S  =  0.845 ± 0.084 for the black morph and S  =  0.999 (SE not available) for the yellow morph, and for ≥5-yr-old snakes S  =  0.958 ± 0.039 (black morph) and S  =  0.822 ± 0.034 (yellow morph). The most parsimonious model overall contained an independent time trend for survival of each age, morph, and lab-treatment group. For snakes of the first two age groups (ages 1 yr and 2–4 yr), survival tended to decline over the years for both morphs, while for adult snakes (5 yr and older), survival was constant or even slightly increased. Our data on survival and recapture are among the first rigorous estimates of these parameters in a rattlesnake and among the few yet available for any viperid snake. These data are useful for analyses of the life-history strategy, population dynamics, and conservation of this long-lived snake.

Survival of cackling Canada geese, 1982-1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raveling, D.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Zezulak, D.S.; Silveira, J.G.; Johnson, J.C.; Aldrich, T.W.; Weldon, J.A.

1992-01-01

We estimated seasonal and annual survival rates of cackling Canada geese (Branta canadensis minima ) for the period 1982-1989 to identify periods of high mortality and assess effects of harvest management decisions. We tested hypotheses about age- and sex-specific variation in survival, seasonal variation in survival rates, and variation in survival between years in which hunting seasons were open and closed. Geese were marked with individually identifiable neckbands and observed from autumn through spring. We used these data to estimate survival rates for 3-month periods in early (EW) and late (LW) winter and a 6-month period in summer (SU). Mean annual survival rates of immature females were lower than those of adults over the entire study. Survival rates of immature males were lower than those of adults during the 2 years with sport hunting seasons. We found no evidence of sex-specific differences in seasonal or annual survival rates of immature geese.

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1994 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muir, William D.

1995-02-01

In 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the second year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through the dams and reservoirs of the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected at selected locations above, at, and below Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release, Modified Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models.

Predation and transport of persistent pathogens in GAC and slow sand filters: a threat to drinking water safety?

PubMed

Bichai, Françoise; Dullemont, Yolanda; Hijnen, Wim; Barbeau, Benoit

2014-11-01

Zooplankton has been shown to transport internalized pathogens throughout engineered drinking water systems. In this study, experimental measurements from GAC and SSF filtration tests using high influent concentrations of Cryptosporidium (1.3 × 10(6) and 3.3 × 10(4) oocysts L(-1)) and Giardia (4.8 × 10(4) cysts L(-1)) are presented and compared. A predation and transport conceptual model was developed to extrapolate these results to environmental conditions of typical (oo)cyst concentrations in surface water in order to predict concentrations of internalized (oo)cysts in filtered water. Pilot test results were used to estimate transport and survival ratios of internalized (oo)cysts following predation by rotifers in the filter beds. Preliminary indications of lower transport and survival ratios in SSF were found as compared with GAC filters. A probability of infection due to internalized (oo)cysts in filtered water was calculated under likeliest environmental conditions and under a worst-case scenario. Estimated risks under the likeliest environmental scenario were found to fall below the tolerable risk target of 10(-4) infections per person per year. A discussion is presented on the health significance of persistent pathogens that are internalized by zooplankton during granular filtration processes and released into treated water. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

1999-01-01

We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of data from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes, particularly regarding the trade-off between precision and potential bias of parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

1999-01-01

We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of date from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes particularly regarding the trade-off between precison and potential bias o parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

1995-01-01

Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee population.

Use of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers for Geriatric Ischemic Stroke Patients: Are the Rates Right?

PubMed

Brooks, John M; Chapman, Cole G; Suneja, Manish; Schroeder, Mary C; Fravel, Michelle A; Schneider, Kathleen M; Wilwert, June; Li, Yi-Jhen; Chrischilles, Elizabeth A; Brenton, Douglas W; Brenton, Marian; Robinson, Jennifer

2018-05-30

Our objective is to estimate the effects associated with higher rates of renin-angiotensin system antagonists, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEI/ARBs), in secondary prevention for geriatric (aged >65 years) patients with new ischemic strokes by chronic kidney disease (CKD) status. The effects of ACEI/ARBs on survival and renal risk were estimated by CKD status using an instrumental variable (IV) estimator. Instruments were based on local area variation in ACEI/ARB use. Data abstracted from charts were used to assess the assumptions underlying the instrumental estimator. ACEI/ARBs were used after stroke by 45.9% and 45.2% of CKD and non-CKD patients, respectively. ACEI/ARB rate differences across local areas grouped by practice styles were nearly identical for CKD and non-CKD patients. Higher ACEI/ARB use rates for non-CKD patients were associated with higher 2-year survival rates, whereas higher ACEI/ARB use rates for patients with CKD were associated with lower 2-year survival rates. While the negative survival estimates for patients with CKD were not statistically different from zero, they were statistically lower than the estimates for non-CKD patients. Confounders abstracted from charts were not associated with the instrumental variable used. Higher ACEI/ARB use rates had different survival implications for older ischemic stroke patients with and without CKD. ACEI/ARBs appear underused in ischemic stroke patients without CKD as higher use rates were associated with higher 2-year survival rates. This conclusion is not generalizable to the ischemic stroke patients with CKD, as higher ACEI/ARBS use rates were associated with lower 2-year survival rates that were statistically lower than the estimates for non-CKD patients. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Nutritional condition of Pacific Black Brant wintering at the extremes of their range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, D.D.; Barboza, P.S.; Ward, D.H.

2006-01-01

Endogenous stores of energy allow birds to survive periods of severe weather and food shortage during winter. We documented changes in lipid, protein, moisture, and ash in body tissues of adult female Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) and modeled the energetic costs of wintering. Birds were collected at the extremes of their winter range, in Alaska and Baja California, Mexico. Body lipids decreased over winter for birds in Alaska but increased for those in Baja California. Conversely, body protein increased over winter for Brant in Alaska and remained stable for birds in Baja California. Lipid stores likely fuel migration for Brant wintering in Baja California and ensure winter survival for those in Alaska. Increases in body protein may support earlier reproduction for Brant in Alaska. Predicted energy demands were similar between sites during late winter but avenues of expenditure were different. Birds in Baja California spent more energy on lipid synthesis while those in Alaska incurred higher thermoregulatory costs. Estimated daily intake rates of eelgrass were similar between sites in early winter; however, feeding time was more constrained in Alaska because of high tides and short photoperiods. Despite differences in energetic costs and foraging time, Brant wintering at both sites appeared to be in good condition. We suggest that wintering in Alaska may be more advantageous than long-distance migration if winter survival is similar between sites and constraints on foraging time do not impair body condition. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

The Kaplan-Meier Theatre

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerds, Thomas A.

2016-01-01

Survival is difficult to estimate when observation periods of individuals differ in length. Students imagine sailing the Titanic and then recording whether they "live" or "die." A clever algorithm is performed which results in the Kaplan-Meier estimate of survival.

Survival Bayesian Estimation of Exponential-Gamma Under Linex Loss Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizki, S. W.; Mara, M. N.; Sulistianingsih, E.

2017-06-01

This paper elaborates a research of the cancer patients after receiving a treatment in cencored data using Bayesian estimation under Linex Loss function for Survival Model which is assumed as an exponential distribution. By giving Gamma distribution as prior and likelihood function produces a gamma distribution as posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is used to find estimatior {\\hat{λ }}BL by using Linex approximation. After getting {\\hat{λ }}BL, the estimators of hazard function {\\hat{h}}BL and survival function {\\hat{S}}BL can be found. Finally, we compare the result of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Linex approximation to find the best method for this observation by finding smaller MSE. The result shows that MSE of hazard and survival under MLE are 2.91728E-07 and 0.000309004 and by using Bayesian Linex worths 2.8727E-07 and 0.000304131, respectively. It concludes that the Bayesian Linex is better than MLE.

Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate.

PubMed

Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

2010-10-01

Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects.

Application of the stage-projection model with density-dependent fecundity to the population dynamics of Spanish ibex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escos, J.; Alados, C.L.; Emlen, John M.

1994-01-01

A stage-class population model with density-feedback term included was used to identify the most critical parameters determining the population dynamics of female Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in southern Spain. A population in the Cazorla and Segura mountains is rapidly declining, but the eastern Sierra Nevada population is growing. The stable population density obtained using estimated values of kid and adult survival (0.49 and 0.87, respectively) and with fecundity equal to 0.367 in the absence of density feedback is 12.7 or 16.82 individuals/km2, based on a non-time-lagged and a time-lagged model, respectively. Given the maximum estimate of fecundity and an adult survival rate of 0.87, a kid survival rate of at least 0.41 is required to avoid extinction. At the minimum fecundity estimate, kid survival would have to exceed 0.52. Elasticities were used to estimate the influence of variation in life-cycle parameters on the intrinsic rate of increase. Adult survival is the most critical parameter, while fecundity and juvenile survival are less important. An increase in adult survival from 0.87 to 0.91 in the Cazorla and Segura mountains population would almost stabilize the population in the absence of stochastic variation, while the same increase in the Sierra Nevada population would yield population growth of 4–5% per annum. A reduction in adult survival to 0.83 results in population decline in both cases.

Capture-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Runge, M.C.

2004-01-01

Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state mark-resighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982?2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.

Testing for handling bias in survival estimation for black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, J.S.; Lindberg, M.S.; Rexstad, E.A.; Chelgren, N.D.; Ward, D.H.

1997-01-01

We used an ultrastructure approach in program SURVIV to test for, and remove, bias in survival estimates for the year following mass banding of female black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We used relative banding-drive size as the independent variable to control for handling effects in our ultrastructure models, which took the form: S = S0(1 - ??D), where ?? was handling effect and D was the ratio of banding-drive size to the largest banding drive. Brant were divided into 3 classes: goslings, initial captures, and recaptures, based on their state at the time of banding, because we anticipated the potential for heterogeneity in model parameters among classes of brant. Among models examined, for which ?? was not constrained, a model with ?? constant across classes of brant and years, constant survival rates among years for initially captured brant but year-specific survival rates for goslings and recaptures, and year- and class-specific detection probabilities had the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Handling effect, ??, was -0.47 ?? 0.13 SE, -0.14 ?? 0.057, and -0.12 ?? 0.049 for goslings, initially released adults, and recaptured adults. Gosling annual survival in the first year ranged from 0.738 ?? 0.072 for the 1986 cohort to 0.260 ?? 0.025 for the 1991 cohort. Inclusion of winter observations increased estimates of first-year survival rates by an average of 30%, suggesting that permanent emigration had an important influence on apparent survival, especially for later cohorts. We estimated annual survival for initially captured brant as 0.782 ?? 0.013, while that for recaptures varied from 0.726 ?? 0.034 to 0.900 ?? 0.062. Our analyses failed to detect a negative effect of handling on survival of brant, which is consistent with an hypothesis of substantial inherent heterogeneity in post-fledging survival rates, such that individuals most likely to die as a result of handling also have lower inherent survival probabilities.

Survival of northern pintails banded during winter in North America, 1950-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hestbeck, J.B.

1993-01-01

From 1950 through 1988, the continental breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) varied from 2.0 million to 9.9 million. Because pintails have high fidelity to certain wintering grounds along coasts and large bodies of water, management on these wintering areas may increase population size if changes in winter survival rate are related to changes in population size. I used band-recovery data to estimate survival rates for winter-banded pintails and to test for sex-specific, temporal, and geographic variation in survival rates. Survival rate estimates varied between 0.632 and 0.806 for males, and 0.421 and 0.769 for females. Males had higher (P lt 0.0001) average annual survival rates than females. Limited geographic variation occurred in estimates of average annual survival rates for males, and no variation occurred for females. Males had lower average annual survival rates in the Imperial Valley than in central California (P = 0.007) or in the Gulf Coast (P = 0.092). Little annual variation was found within time periods. However, longer-term variation was found in survival rate estimates for males and females. Males had higher (P = 0.054) average annual survival rates in the Pacific Flyway during 1959-61, a period of drought, breeding-population decline, and restrictive hunting regulations, than during 1950-58, a period with a higher breeding population and liberal regulations. The increase in wintering population size in the Pacific Flyway during the 1970's was associated with a higher average annual survival rate for females in the Pacific Flyway than during the 1950's. Results from the Pacific Flyway suggested that an interaction may exist between population size and the effect of harvest regulations on survival of males. Changes in harvest regulations appeared to have a greater effect at lower population levels.

Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, Joshua H.; Johnson, Devin S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Adams, Layne G.

2015-01-01

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark–resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models.

PubMed

Schmidt, Joshua H; Johnson, Devin S; Lindberg, Mark S; Adams, Layne G

2015-10-01

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark-resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

An estimate of juvenile survival in black-capped vireos and its implications to source-sink analyses of songbirds

Treesearch

Joseph A. Grzybowski

2005-01-01

An indirect estimate of juvenile survival was derived for a closed, small, population of Black-capped Vireos (Vireo atricapillus) in the Wichita Mountains, Oklahoma monitored since 1987. I used seasonal fecundities of vireos in years when the population was stable in the formula for intrinsic growth rate to solve for juvenile survival. The derived...

Quantifying the impact of longline fisheries on adult survival in the black-footed albatross

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veran, S.; Gimenez, O.; Flint, E.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; Lebreton, J.D.

2007-01-01

1. Industrial longline fishing has been suspected to impact upon black-footed albatross populations Phoebastria nigripes by increasing mortality, but no precise estimates of bycatch mortality are available to ascertain this statement. We present a general framework for quantifying the relationship between albatross population and longline fishing in absence of reliable estimates of bycatch rate. 2. We analysed capture?recapture data of a population of black-footed albatross to obtain estimates of survival probability for this population using several alternative models to adequately take into account heterogeneity in the recapture process. Instead of trying to estimate the number of birds killed by using various extrapolations and unchecked assumptions, we investigate the potential relationship between annual adult survival and several measures of fishing effort. Although we considered a large number of covariates, we used principal component analysis to generate a few uncorrelated synthetic variables from the set and thus we maintained both power and robustness. 3. The average survival for 1997?2002 was 92%, a low value compared to estimates available for other albatross species. We found that one of the synthetic variables used to summarize industrial longline fishing significantly explained more than 40% of the variation in adult survival over 11 years, suggesting an impact by longline fishing on albatross? survival. 4. Our analysis provides some evidence of non-linear variation in survival with fishing effort. This could indicate that below a certain level of fishing effort, deaths due to incidental catch can be partially or totally compensated for by a decrease in natural mortality. Another possible explanation is the existence of a strong interspecific competition for accessing the baits, reducing the risk of being accidentally hooked. 5. Synthesis and applications. The suspicion of a significant impact of longline fishing on the black-footed albatross population was supported by the combination of a low estimate of adult survival for the study period, and a significant relationship between adult survival and a synthetic measure of fishing effort. This study highlights the sensitivity of the black-footed albatross to commercial longline fishing, and should exhort fishery management authorities to find adequate seabirds avoidance methods and to encourage their employment.

Flexible and structured survival model for a simultaneous estimation of non-linear and non-proportional effects and complex interactions between continuous variables: Performance of this multidimensional penalized spline approach in net survival trend analysis.

PubMed

Remontet, Laurent; Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Iwaz, Jean; Belot, Aurélien; Danieli, Coraline; Charvat, Hadrien; Roche, Laurent

2018-01-01

Cancer survival trend analyses are essential to describe accurately the way medical practices impact patients' survival according to the year of diagnosis. To this end, survival models should be able to account simultaneously for non-linear and non-proportional effects and for complex interactions between continuous variables. However, in the statistical literature, there is no consensus yet on how to build such models that should be flexible but still provide smooth estimates of survival. In this article, we tackle this challenge by smoothing the complex hypersurface (time since diagnosis, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, and mortality hazard) using a multidimensional penalized spline built from the tensor product of the marginal bases of time, age, and year. Considering this penalized survival model as a Poisson model, we assess the performance of this approach in estimating the net survival with a comprehensive simulation study that reflects simple and complex realistic survival trends. The bias was generally small and the root mean squared error was good and often similar to that of the true model that generated the data. This parametric approach offers many advantages and interesting prospects (such as forecasting) that make it an attractive and efficient tool for survival trend analyses.

Estimating the impacts of reservoir elevation changes on kokanee emergence in flaming Gorge Reservoir, Wyoming-Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Modde, T.; Jeric, R.J.; Hubert, W.A.; Gipson, R.D.

1997-01-01

Flaming Gorge Reservoir, like many western North American reservoirs, is managed to release water during the winter months to allow for water storage associated with melting snow and rain during spring. Decreases in reservoir elevation during winter can cause mortalities of kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka spawned along the shoreline the previous fall. This study compared data on depth distribution of embryos and depth-adjusted survival to estimate the relative survival of emergent kokanee at different depths and the effect of winter drawdown on the proportion of deposited eggs that survive to emergence. Estimates of decreases in kokanee survival to emergence were 8.3% and 38.1% for reservoir elevation reductions of 1.0 m and 5.0 m, respectively.

Compliance Monitoring of Subyearling Chinook Salmon Survival and Passage at The Dalles Dam, Summer 2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skalski, J. R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Seaburg, Adam

2013-05-01

The purpose of this compliance study was to estimate dam passage survival of subyearling Chinook salmon at The Dalles Dam during summer 2012. Under the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion, dam passage survival is required to be greater than or equal to 0.93 and estimated with a standard error (SE) less than or equal to 0.015. The study also estimated survival from the forebay 2 km upstream of the dam and through the tailrace to 2 km downstream of the dam, forebay residence time, tailrace egress time, spill passage efficiency (SPE), and fish passage efficiency (FPE), asmore » required by the 2008 Columbia Basin Fish Accords.« less

Survival Analysis of Patients with End Stage Renal Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, J. D.; Gayo, W. S.; Bautista, L. A.; Baccay, E. B.

2015-06-01

This paper provides a survival analysis of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) under Kaplan-Meier Estimates and Weibull Distribution. The data were obtained from the records of V. L. MakabaliMemorial Hospital with respect to time t (patient's age), covariates such as developed secondary disease (Pulmonary Congestion and Cardiovascular Disease), gender, and the event of interest: the death of ESRD patients. Survival and hazard rates were estimated using NCSS for Weibull Distribution and SPSS for Kaplan-Meier Estimates. These lead to the same conclusion that hazard rate increases and survival rate decreases of ESRD patient diagnosed with Pulmonary Congestion, Cardiovascular Disease and both diseases with respect to time. It also shows that female patients have a greater risk of death compared to males. The probability risk was given the equation R = 1 — e-H(t) where e-H(t) is the survival function, H(t) the cumulative hazard function which was created using Cox-Regression.

The application of cure models in the presence of competing risks: a tool for improved risk communication in population-based cancer patient survival.

PubMed

Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W

2014-09-01

Quantifying cancer patient survival from the perspective of cure is clinically relevant. However, most cure models estimate cure assuming no competing causes of death. We use a relative survival framework to demonstrate how flexible parametric cure models can be used in combination with competing-risks theory to incorporate noncancer deaths. Under a model that incorporates statistical cure, we present the probabilities that cancer patients (1) have died from their cancer, (2) have died from other causes, (3) will eventually die from their cancer, or (4) will eventually die from other causes, all as a function of time since diagnosis. We further demonstrate how conditional probabilities can be used to update the prognosis among survivors (eg, at 1 or 5 years after diagnosis) by summarizing the proportion of patients who will not die from their cancer. The proposed method is applied to Swedish population-based data for persons diagnosed with melanoma, colon cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia between 1973 and 2007.

The Value of Survival Gains in Pancreatic Cancer from Novel Treatment Regimens.

PubMed

MacEwan, Joanna P; Yin, Wes; Kaura, Satyin; Khan, Zeba M

2017-02-01

Metastatic pancreatic cancer (mPC) is associated with low survival, with less than 10% of patients surviving 5 years. Recent therapies improve survival outcomes where few alternative therapies exist, but few economic analyses measure the value of survival gains attributable to new therapies. To estimate the value of survival gains in advanced or mPC attributable to the introduction of novel treatment regimens. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate real-world survival gains associated with the introduction of gemcitabine (GEM) for patients diagnosed with stage IV or unstaged mPC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registries. Then, evidence from clinical trials was used to evaluate the survival gains associated with nab-paclitaxel + gemcitabine (nP +GEM) and FOLFIRINOX (FFX) relative to GEM. The survival estimates and clinical trial evidence were used to calibrate an economic model and assess the cumulative value of survival gains in mPC to patients. Costs of treatment were calculated based on published cost-effectiveness studies. We estimated that the introduction of GEM in 1996 was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.920 (P < 0.05) and an increase in median survival from 3.1 to 4.5 months. Results suggested that the value of survival gains attributable to GEM equaled about $71,000 per patient, while the value attributable to nP + GEM was an additional $56,700. Estimates for the value of survival gains per patient, net of total incremental lifetime treatment costs (drugs, adverse events, and other costs), were $50,294 for GEM and an additional $31,900 for nP + GEM. Clinical trials and cost-effectiveness studies reported an overall survival gain from FFX that was larger than, but statistically similar to, nP + GEM and had greater risk of adverse events and total incremental costs. We estimated that the total value of survival gains to mPC patients, net of total costs, associated with GEM was up to $47.6 billion, and the additional values attributable to nP+GEM and FFX were up to $39.0 billion and $26.3 billion, respectively. Historically, mPC patients have faced high disease burden and had few treatment options. Treatments introduced since 1996 have led to improved survival, with varying costs associated with treatment and adverse events. Accounting for total incremental costs, the majority of the value of survival gains from GEM and nP+GEM was retained by mPC patients, highlighting the value of innovation in settings where survival is low and few alternative therapies exist. Support for this research was provided by Celgene. Precision Health Economics was compensated by Celgene for work on this study. MacEwan is an employee of, and Yin is a consultant to, Precision Health Economics. Kaura and Khan are employees of Celgene. Study concept and design were contributed primarily by Yin and MacEwan, along with Kaura and Khan. MacEwan collected the data, and data interpretation was performed primarily by MacEwan and Yin, along with Kaura and Khan. The manuscript was written and revised by MacEwan, Yin, Kaura, and Khan.

Babies in traffic: infant vocalizations and listener sex modulate auditory motion perception.

PubMed

Neuhoff, John G; Hamilton, Grace R; Gittleson, Amanda L; Mejia, Adolfo

2014-04-01

Infant vocalizations and "looming sounds" are classes of environmental stimuli that are critically important to survival but can have dramatically different emotional valences. Here, we simultaneously presented listeners with a stationary infant vocalization and a 3D virtual looming tone for which listeners made auditory time-to-arrival judgments. Negatively valenced infant cries produced more cautious (anticipatory) estimates of auditory arrival time of the tone over a no-vocalization control. Positively valenced laughs had the opposite effect, and across all conditions, men showed smaller anticipatory biases than women. In Experiment 2, vocalization-matched vocoded noise stimuli did not influence concurrent auditory time-to-arrival estimates compared with a control condition. In Experiment 3, listeners estimated the egocentric distance of a looming tone that stopped before arriving. For distant stopping points, women estimated the stopping point as closer when the tone was presented with an infant cry than when it was presented with a laugh. For near stopping points, women showed no differential effect of vocalization type. Men did not show differential effects of vocalization type at either distance. Our results support the idea that both the sex of the listener and the emotional valence of infant vocalizations can influence auditory motion perception and can modulate motor responses to other behaviorally relevant environmental sounds. We also find support for previous work that shows sex differences in emotion processing are diminished under conditions of higher stress.

Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loery, G.; Nichols, J.D.

1985-01-01

The dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958-1983 using capture-recapture methods. The Jolly-Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was ?160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was ?57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was ?0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear-cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short-term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear-cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear-cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor

2016-10-01

Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods. © The Author(s) 2014.

Population-based estimates of survival and cost for metastatic melanoma.

PubMed

McCarron, C E; Ernst, S; Cao, J Q; Zaric, G S

2015-10-01

Fewer than half of all patients with metastatic melanoma survive more than 1 year. Standard treatments have had little success, but recent therapeutic advances offer the potential for an improved prognosis. In the present study, we used population-based administrative data to establish real-world baseline estimates of survival outcomes and costs against which new treatments can be compared. Data from administrative databases and patient registries were used to find a cohort of patients with metastatic melanoma in Ontario. To identify individuals most likely to receive new treatments, we focused on patients eligible for second-line treatment. The identified cohort had two characteristics: no surgical resection beyond primary skin excision, and receipt of first-line systemic therapy. Patient characteristics, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and mean costs are reported. Of the 33,585 patients diagnosed with melanoma in Ontario from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2010, 278 met the study inclusion criteria. Average age was 63 years, and 62% of the patients were men. Overall survival was estimated to be 19%, 12%, and 6% at 12, 24, and 60 months respectively. Mean survival time was 11.5 months, and mean cost was $30,685. Our baseline estimates indicate that survival outcomes are poor and costs are high for patients receiving standard treatment. Understanding the relative improvement accruing from any new treatment requires a comparison with the existing standard of care.

Societal preferences in the treatment of pediatric medulloblastoma: Balancing risk of death and quality of life.

PubMed

Khakban, Amir; Mohammadi, Tima; Lynd, Larry D; Mabbott, Don; Bouffet, Eric; Gastonguay, Louise; Zafari, Zafar; Malkin, David; Taylor, Michael; Marra, Carlo A

2017-06-01

Medulloblastoma is the most prevalent childhood brain cancer. Children with medulloblastoma typically receive a combination of surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy. The survival rate is high but survivors often have sequelae from radiotherapy of the entire developing brain and spinal cord. Ongoing genetic studies have suggested that decreasing the dose of radiation might be possible among children with favorable molecular variants; however, this may result in an increased disease recurrence. As such, there is a need to investigate the nature of trade-offs that individuals are willing to make regarding the treatment of medulloblastoma. We used best-worst scaling to estimate the importance of attributes affecting the general public's decision making around the treatment of medulloblastoma. After conducting focus groups, we selected three relevant attributes: (1) the accuracy of the genetic test; (2) the probability of serious adverse effects of the treatment(s); and (3) the survival rate. Using the paired method, we applied a conditional logit model to estimate preferences. In total, 3,006 respondents (51.3% female) with an average age of 43 years answered the questionnaires. All coefficients were statistically significantly different from zero and the attribute levels of adverse effects and the survival rate had the most impact on individuals' stated decision making. Overall, respondents showed high sensitivity to children experiencing disability particularly in the setting of a good prognosis. However, among children with poor prognostic molecular variants, participants showed tolerance about having a child with mild and partial disability compared to a low rate of survival. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of abdominally implanted radiotransmitters with percutaneous antennas on migration, reproduction, and survival of Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hupp, Jerry W.; Pearce, John M.; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Miller, David A.

2006-01-01

Abdominally implanted radiotransmitters with percutaneous antennas are increasingly used to monitor movements, survival, and reproduction of waterbirds. However, there has been relatively little assessment of the effects of such radios on avian demographic parameters or migration. We implanted either a 26- or 35-g abdominal transmitter with percutaneous antenna in 198 adult female lesser Canada geese (Branta canadensis parvipes) in Anchorage, Alaska during 2000 and 2001. We compared migration chronology, reproductive effort, and survival of radiomarked females to 118 control females marked with leg bands. Arrival dates following spring migration were similar among females in different treatments in 2001. However, in 2002, wind direction during late migration was less favorable, and arrival of females with 35-g radiotransmitters lagged 1–2 days behind that of control females. Nest initiation dates, clutch size, and mean egg volume were similar for 152 nests of females that lacked radios and 62 nests of radiomarked females. Estimated nesting propensity for females with operable radiotransmitters was 61% and 72% in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Apparent annual survival (ϕ = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.76 to 0.87) was similar among treatments in the first year after geese were marked. In the second and third years after marking, model-averaged estimates for survival of females with large radiotransmitters were 10% lower than estimates for control females. However, the effect of large radios on long-term survival was equivocal because of uncertainty surrounding treatment estimates. We conclude that abdominally implanted radiotransmitters with percutaneous antennas had small effects on migration chronology but no apparent effects on fecundity. Abdominal transmitters can provide unbiased estimates of anserine survival in the first year after deployment. Because of the potentially greater effects of larger transmitters on migration and long-term survival, we recommend that biologists minimize the size of implanted transmitters and deploy radios with caution if long-term survival of marked birds is a concern.

Factors limiting mallard brood survival in prairie pothole landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krapu, Gary L.; Pietz, Pamela J.; Brandt, David A.; Cox, Robert R.

2000-01-01

In order to estimate mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) production from managed and unmanaged lands, waterfowl biologists need measurable predictors of brood survival. We evaluated effects of percent of seasonal basins holding water (WETSEAS), percent of upland landscape in perennial cover (PERNCOVER), rainfall (RAIN), daily minimum ambient temperature (TMIN), hatch date (HATCHDATE), brood age (BA; 0-7 or 8-30 days), age of brood females, and brood size on mallard brood survival in prairie pothole landscapes, and developed a predictive model using factors found to have significant effects. Sixteen of 56 radiomarked broods experienced total loss during 1,250 exposure days. Our final fitted model of brood survival contained only main effects of WETSEAS, HATCHDATE, and RAIN. Total brood loss during the first 30 days of exposure was 11.2 times more likely for broods hatched on areas with 59% WETSEAS. Total brood loss was 5.2 times more likely during rainy conditions than during dry periods, and the hazard of total brood loss increased by 5% for each 1-day delay in hatching between 17 May and 12 August. High survival of mallard broods in landscapes where most seasonal basins contain water underscores the importance of maintaining seasonal wetlands as a major component of wetland complexes managed for mallard production. Because early hatched broods have higher survival, we also suggest that waterfowl managers focus their efforts on enhancing nest success of early laid clutches, especially in wet years.

Survival of infectious Poliovirus-1 in river water compared to the persistence of somatic coliphages, thermotolerant coliforms and Poliovirus-1 genome.

PubMed

Skraber, S; Gassilloud, B; Schwartzbrod, L; Gantzer, C

2004-07-01

The microbiological quality of water is currently assessed by search for fecal bacteria indicators. There is, however, a body of knowledge demonstrating that bacterial indicators are less resistant to environmental factors than human pathogenic viruses and therefore underestimate the viral risk. As river water is often used as a resource for drinking water production, it is particularly important to obtain a valid estimation of the health hazard, including specific viral risk. This work was conducted to compare the survival of infectious Poliovirus-1 used as a pathogenic virus model to the persistence of, on the one hand, thermotolerant coliforms commonly used as indicators and on the other hand, to somatic coliphages and Poliovirus-1 genome considered as potential indicators. We studied the behavior of infectious Poliovirus-1 and the three (potential) indicators of viral contamination in river water at three different temperatures (4 degrees C,18 degrees C and 25 degrees C). This experiment was performed twice with river water sampled at two different periods, once in winter and once in summer. Our results showed that the survival of thermotolerant coliforms can be 1.5-fold lower than infectious Poliovirus-1. In contrast, under all our experimental conditions, somatic coliphages and Poliovirus-1 genome persisted longer than infectious Poliovirus-1, surviving, respectively, 2-6-fold and about 2-fold longer than infectious Poliovirus-1. According to our results exclusively based on survival capacity, somatic coliphages and viral genome, unlike thermotolerant coliforms appear to be better indicators of viral contamination in river water. Moreover, the disappearance of viral genome is well-correlated to that one of infectious virus irrespective of the conditions tested.

Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

1989-01-01

This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

Impact of relative humidity, inoculum carrier and size, and native microbiota on Salmonella ser. Typhimurium survival in baby lettuce.

PubMed

López-Gálvez, Francisco; Gil, Maria Isabel; Allende, Ana

2018-04-01

The effects of relative humidity (RH), fluctuating climate conditions, inoculum size and carrier on the survival of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium on baby lettuce in environmental test chambers were studied. Buffered peptone water (BPW), distilled water (DW), and irrigation water (IW) were compared as inoculum carriers. Additionally, survival of Salmonella in suspensions prepared using filtered and unfiltered IW was assessed. Salmonella Typhimurium survived better on baby lettuce plants at high RH independently of the inoculum size. When lettuce plants were grown under fluctuating environmental conditions, Salmonella survival was similar under both RH conditions. Regarding the inoculum carrier, the inoculated microorganism survived better on lettuce plants when BPW was used as carrier both at high and low RH. Survival rate of Salmonella in IW was affected by the presence of native microbiota. Native microbiota present in IW did not affect survival of Salmonella or the levels of mesophilic bacteria on the baby lettuce leaves. The information obtained in the present study contributes to the knowledge on the effect of environmental conditions on pathogenic bacteria survival on growing edible plants. These results are useful when selecting the methodology to carry out experimental studies on the survival of microbial pathogens under different pre-harvest conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Density and Temperature Dependence of Juvenile Vital Rates Using a Hidden Markov Model

PubMed Central

McElderry, Robert M.

2017-01-01

Organisms in the wild have cryptic life stages that are sensitive to changing environmental conditions and can be difficult to survey. In this study, I used mark-recapture methods to repeatedly survey Anaea aidea (Nymphalidae) caterpillars in nature, then modeled caterpillar demography as a hidden Markov process to assess if temporal variability in temperature and density influence the survival and growth of A. aidea over time. Individual encounter histories result from the joint likelihood of being alive and observed in a particular stage, and I have included hidden states by separating demography and observations into parallel and independent processes. I constructed a demographic matrix containing the probabilities of all possible fates for each stage, including hidden states, e.g., eggs and pupae. I observed both dead and live caterpillars with high probability. Peak caterpillar abundance attracted multiple predators, and survival of fifth instars declined as per capita predation rate increased through spring. A time lag between predator and prey abundance was likely the cause of improved fifth instar survival estimated at high density. Growth rates showed an increase with temperature, but the preferred model did not include temperature. This work illustrates how state-space models can include unobservable stages and hidden state processes to evaluate how environmental factors influence vital rates of cryptic life stages in the wild. PMID:28505138

[Estimating survival of thrushes: modeling capture-recapture probabilities].

PubMed

Burskiî, O V

2011-01-01

The stochastic modeling technique serves as a way to correctly separate "return rate" of marked animals into survival rate (phi) and capture probability (p). The method can readily be used with the program MARK freely distributed through Internet (Cooch, White, 2009). Input data for the program consist of "capture histories" of marked animals--strings of units and zeros indicating presence or absence of the individual among captures (or sightings) along the set of consequent recapture occasions (e.g., years). Probability of any history is a product of binomial probabilities phi, p or their complements (1 - phi) and (1 - p) for each year of observation over the individual. Assigning certain values to parameters phi and p, one can predict the composition of all individual histories in the sample and assess the likelihood of the prediction. The survival parameters for different occasions and cohorts of individuals can be set either equal or different, as well as recapture parameters can be set in different ways. There is a possibility to constraint the parameters, according to the hypothesis being tested, in the form of a specific model. Within the specified constraints, the program searches for parameter values that describe the observed composition of histories with the maximum likelihood. It computes the parameter estimates along with confidence limits and the overall model likelihood. There is a set of tools for testing the model goodness-of-fit under assumption of equality of survival rates among individuals and independence of their fates. Other tools offer a proper selection among a possible variety of models, providing the best parity between details and precision in describing reality. The method was applied to 20-yr recapture and resighting data series on 4 thrush species (genera Turdus, Zoothera) breeding in the Yenisei River floodplain within the middle taiga subzone. The capture probabilities were quite independent of observational efforts fluctuations while differing significantly between the species and sexes. The estimates of adult survival rate, obtained for the Siberian migratory populations, were lower than those for sedentary populations from both the tropics and intermediate latitudes with marine climate (data by Ricklefs, 1997). Two factors, the average temperature influencing birds during their annual movements, and climatic seasonality (temperature difference between summer and winter) in the breeding area, fit the latitudinal pattern of survival most closely (R2 = 0.90). Final survival of migrants reflects an adaptive life history compromise for use of superabundant resources in breeding area at the cost of avoidance of severe winter conditions.

Noninvasive Subharmonic Pressure Estimation for Monitoring Breast Cancer Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

predict disease free survival for cervix cancer (34% disease free survival (DFS) if IFP > 19 mmHg, 68% DFS if IFP < 19 mmHg (p = 0.002)) [11]. Thus, the...pressure predicts survival in patients with cervix cancer independent of clinical prognostic factors and tumor oxygen measurements. Cancer Res...Estimation for Monitoring Breast Cancer Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Flemming Forsberg, Ph.D

Seasonal variation in size-dependent survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): Performance of multistate capture-mark-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, B.H.; Horton, G.E.

2008-01-01

We estimated the magnitude and shape of size-dependent survival (SDS) across multiple sampling intervals for two cohorts of stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) juveniles using multistate capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models. Simulations designed to test the effectiveness of multistate models for detecting SDS in our system indicated that error in SDS estimates was low and that both time-invariant and time-varying SDS could be detected with sample sizes of >250, average survival of >0.6, and average probability of capture of >0.6, except for cases of very strong SDS. In the field (N ??? 750, survival 0.6-0.8 among sampling intervals, probability of capture 0.6-0.8 among sampling occasions), about one-third of the sampling intervals showed evidence of SDS, with poorer survival of larger fish during the age-2+ autumn and quadratic survival (opposite direction between cohorts) during age-1+ spring. The varying magnitude and shape of SDS among sampling intervals suggest a potential mechanism for the maintenance of the very wide observed size distributions. Estimating SDS using multistate CMR models appears complementary to established approaches, can provide estimates with low error, and can be used to detect intermittent SDS. ?? 2008 NRC Canada.

Survival of radio-marked mallard ducklings in northeastern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mauser, D.M.; Jarvis, R.L.; Gilmer, D.S.

1994-01-01

Estimates of duckling survival are necessary to accurately assess recruitment of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), yet few reliable estimates exist. During 1988-90, we estimated survival rates for 127 radio-marked mallard ducklings from 64 broods on Lower Klamath National Wildlife Refuge, California. In 1988, we restricted the survival estimate to the first 10 days post-hatch (S = 0.18, SE = 0.07). Survival from hatching to 50 days was 0.37 (SE = 0.09) in 1989 and 0.34 (SE = 0.07) in 1990. Total brood loss differed among years (P < 0.05); 81.2% in 1988 (n = 16), 36.8% in 1989 (n = 19), and 37.5% in 1990 (n = 24). Ninety-three percent of mortality occurred during the first 10 days of life. We detected no differences in the proportion of radio-marked ducklings fledged from early-hatched versus late-hatched nests (P = 0.74). During 1989-90, 16 females appeared to lose their entire brood; however, 3 radio-marked ducklings from 2 of these broods were fledged by other brood hens. Of 29 radio-marked ducklings that reached 44 days of life, 6 (20.7%) joined other broods. Habitat enhancement is the key to improving duckling survival because the large number of predator species that consume ducklings makes predator control difficult.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

PubMed Central

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Van den Brink, Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans. PMID:27381500

Thermal control unit for long-time survival of scientific instruments on lunar surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Kazunori; Iijima, Yuichi; Tanaka, Satoshi

A thermal control unit (lunar survival module) is being developed for scientific instruments placed on the lunar surface. This unit is designed to be used on the future Japanese lunar landing mission SELENE-2. The lunar surface is a severe environment for scientific instruments. The absence of convective cooling by an atmosphere makes the ground surface temperature variable in the wide range of -200 to 100 degC, an environment in which space electronics can hardly survive. The surface elements must have a thermal control structure to maintain the inner temperature within the operable ranges of the instruments for long-time measurements, such as 1 month or longer beyond the lunar nights. The objectives of this study are to develop a thermal control unit for the SELENE-2 mission. So far, we conducted the concept design of the lunar survival module, and estimated its potential by a thermal mathematical model on the assumption of using a lunar seismometer designed for SELENE-2. The basic structure of the thermal module is rather simple in that a heat insulating shell covers the scientific instruments. The concept is that the conical insulator retains heat in the regolith soil in the daylight, and it can keep the device warm in the night. Results of the model calculations indicated the high potential of long-time survival. A bread board model (BBM) was manufactured, and its thermal-vacuum tests were conducted in order to estimate the validity of some thermal parameters assumed in the computed thermal model. The thermal condition of the lunar surface was simulated by glass beads paved in a vacuum chamber, and a temperature-controlled container. Temperature variations of the BBM in thermal cycling tests were compared to a thermal mathematical model, and the thermal parameters were finally assessed. Feeding the test results back into the thermal model for the lunar surface, some thermal parameters were updated but there was no critical effect on the survivability. The experimental results indicated a sufficient survivability potential of the concept of our thermal control system.

Lung Transplant in Patients with Scleroderma Compared with Pulmonary Fibrosis. Short- and Long-Term Outcomes.

PubMed

Crespo, Maria M; Bermudez, Christian A; Dew, Mary Amanda; Johnson, Bruce A; George, M Patricia; Bhama, Jay; Morrell, Matthew; D'Cunha, Jonathan; Shigemura, Norihisa; Richards, Thomas J; Pilewski, Joseph M

2016-06-01

Patients with advanced lung disease due to systemic sclerosis have long been considered suboptimal and often unacceptable candidates for lung transplant. To examine post-lung transplant survival of patients with systemic sclerosis compared with patients with pulmonary fibrosis and to identify risk factors for 1-year mortality. In a retrospective cohort study, we compared post-lung transplant outcomes of 72 patients with scleroderma with those of 311 patients with pulmonary fibrosis between June 2005 and September 2013 at our institution. Actuarial survival estimates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier curves. In Cox regression models, we determined risk factors for post-transplant mortality, controlling for whether patients had scleroderma or pulmonary fibrosis. Post-transplant survival did not differ significantly between scleroderma and pulmonary fibrosis at year 1 (81% scleroderma vs. 79% pulmonary fibrosis; P = 0.743), at year 5 conditional on 1-year survival (66% vs. 58%; P = 0.249), or overall (P = 0.385). In multivariate analysis, body mass index greater than or equal to 35 kg/m(2) predicted poor 1-year survival in pulmonary fibrosis (hazard ratio, 2.76; P = 0.003). Acute cellular rejection-free survival did not differ significantly between the scleroderma and pulmonary fibrosis cohorts. Patients with scleroderma had significantly better bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome stage 1 or higher-free survival than did patients with pulmonary fibrosis. Our findings that 1- and 5-year survival rates of patients with scleroderma were similar to those of patients with pulmonary fibrosis indicate that lung transplant is a reasonable treatment option in selected patients with scleroderma.

Survival of microorganisms in smectite clays: Implications for Martian exobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moll, Deborah M.; Vestal, J. Robie

1992-08-01

Manned exploration of Mars may result in the contamination of that planet with terrestrial microbes, a situation requiring assessment of the survival potential of possible contaminating organisms. In this study, the survival of Bacillus subtilis, Azotobacter chroococcum, and the enteric bacteriophage MS2 was examined in clays representing terrestrial (Wyoming type montmorillonite) or Martian (Fe 3+-montmorillonite) soils exposed to terrestrial and Martian environmental conditions of temperature and atmospheric pressure and composition, but not to UV flux or oxidizing conditions. Survival of bacteria was determined by standard plate counts and biochemical and physiological measurements over 112 days. Extractable lipid phosphate was used to measure microbial biomass, and the rate of 14C-acetate incorporation into microbial lipids was used to determine physiological activity. MS2 survival was assayed by plaque counts. Both bacterial types survived terrestrial or Martian conditions in Wyoming montmorillonite better than Martian conditions in Fe 3+-montmorillonite. Decreased survival may have been caused by the lower pH of the Fe 3+-montmorillonite compared to Wyoming montmorillonite. MS2 survived simulated Mars conditions better than the terrestrial environment, likely due to stabilization of the virus caused by the cold and dry conditions of the simulated Martian environment. The survival of MS2 in the simulated Martian environment is the first published indication that viruses may be able to survive in Martian type soils. This work may have implications for planetary protection for future Mars missions.

Nomograms for predicting graft function and survival in living donor kidney transplantation based on the UNOS Registry.

PubMed

Tiong, H Y; Goldfarb, D A; Kattan, M W; Alster, J M; Thuita, L; Yu, C; Wee, A; Poggio, E D

2009-03-01

We developed nomograms that predict transplant renal function at 1 year (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation [estimated glomerular filtration rate]) and 5-year graft survival after living donor kidney transplantation. Data for living donor renal transplants were obtained from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry for 2000 to 2003. Nomograms were designed using linear or Cox regression models to predict 1-year estimated glomerular filtration rate and 5-year graft survival based on pretransplant information including demographic factors, immunosuppressive therapy, immunological factors and organ procurement technique. A third nomogram was constructed to predict 5-year graft survival using additional information available by 6 months after transplantation. These data included delayed graft function, any treated rejection episodes and the 6-month estimated glomerular filtration rate. The nomograms were internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. The renal function nomogram had an r-square value of 0.13. It worked best when predicting estimated glomerular filtration rate values between 50 and 70 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2). The 5-year graft survival nomograms had a concordance index of 0.71 for the pretransplant nomogram and 0.78 for the 6-month posttransplant nomogram. Calibration was adequate for all nomograms. Nomograms based on data from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry have been validated to predict the 1-year estimated glomerular filtration rate and 5-year graft survival. These nomograms may facilitate individualized patient care in living donor kidney transplantation.

Does bioelectrical impedance analysis accurately estimate the condition of threatened and endangered desert fish species?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yard, Micheal D.; Ward, David L.; Yackulic, Charles B.

2017-01-01

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a nonlethal tool with which to estimate the physiological condition of animals that has potential value in research on endangered species. However, the effectiveness of BIA varies by species, the methodology continues to be refined, and incidental mortality rates are unknown. Under laboratory conditions we tested the value of using BIA in addition to morphological measurements such as total length and wet mass to estimate proximate composition (lipid, protein, ash, water, dry mass, energy density) in the endangered Humpback Chub Gila cypha and Bonytail G. elegans and the species of concern Roundtail Chub G. robusta and conducted separate trials to estimate the mortality rates of these sensitive species. Although Humpback and Roundtail Chub exhibited no or low mortality in response to taking BIA measurements versus handling for length and wet-mass measurements, Bonytails exhibited 14% and 47% mortality in the BIA and handling experiments, respectively, indicating that survival following stress is species specific. Derived BIA measurements were included in the best models for most proximate components; however, the added value of BIA as a predictor was marginal except in the absence of accurate wet-mass data. Bioelectrical impedance analysis improved the R2 of the best percentage-based models by no more than 4% relative to models based on morphology. Simulated field conditions indicated that BIA models became increasingly better than morphometric models at estimating proximate composition as the observation error around wet-mass measurements increased. However, since the overall proportion of variance explained by percentage-based models was low and BIA was mostly a redundant predictor, we caution against the use of BIA in field applications for these sensitive fish species.

Survival rate of AIDS disease and mortality in HIV-infected patients: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Poorolajal, J; Hooshmand, E; Mahjub, H; Esmailnasab, N; Jenabi, E

2016-10-01

The life expectancy of patients with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) reported by several epidemiological studies is inconsistent. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the survival rate from HIV diagnosis to AIDS onset and from AIDS onset to death. The electronic databases PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus were searched to February 2016. In addition, the reference lists of included studies were checked to identify further references, and the database of the International AIDS Society was also searched. Cohort studies addressing the survival rate in patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS were included in this meta-analysis. The outcomes of interest were the survival rate of patients diagnosed with HIV progressing to AIDS, and the survival rate of patients with AIDS dying from AIDS-related causes with or without highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The survival rate (P) was estimated with 95% confidence intervals based on random-effects models. In total, 27,862 references were identified, and 57 studies involving 294,662 participants were included in this meta-analysis. Two, 4-, 6-, 8-, 10- and 12-year survival probabilities of progression from HIV diagnosis to AIDS onset were estimated to be 82%, 72%, 64%, 57%, 26% and 19%, respectively. Two, 4-, 6-, 8- and 10-year survival probabilities of progression from AIDS onset to AIDS-related death in patients who received HAART were estimated to be 87%, 86%, 78%, 78%, and 61%, respectively, and 2-, 4- and 6-year survival probabilities of progression from AIDS onset to AIDS-related death in patients who did not receive HAART were estimated to be 48%, 26% and 18%, respectively. Evidence of considerable heterogeneity was found. The majority of the studies had a moderate to high risk of bias. The majority of HIV-positive patients progress to AIDS within the first decade of diagnosis. Most patients who receive HAART will survive for >10 years after the onset of AIDS, whereas the majority of the patients who do not receive HAART die within 2 years of the onset of AIDS. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An overall strategy based on regression models to estimate relative survival and model the effects of prognostic factors in cancer survival studies.

PubMed

Remontet, L; Bossard, N; Belot, A; Estève, J

2007-05-10

Relative survival provides a measure of the proportion of patients dying from the disease under study without requiring the knowledge of the cause of death. We propose an overall strategy based on regression models to estimate the relative survival and model the effects of potential prognostic factors. The baseline hazard was modelled until 10 years follow-up using parametric continuous functions. Six models including cubic regression splines were considered and the Akaike Information Criterion was used to select the final model. This approach yielded smooth and reliable estimates of mortality hazard and allowed us to deal with sparse data taking into account all the available information. Splines were also used to model simultaneously non-linear effects of continuous covariates and time-dependent hazard ratios. This led to a graphical representation of the hazard ratio that can be useful for clinical interpretation. Estimates of these models were obtained by likelihood maximization. We showed that these estimates could be also obtained using standard algorithms for Poisson regression. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Parametric Model Based On Imputations Techniques for Partly Interval Censored Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zyoud, Abdallah; Elfaki, F. A. M.; Hrairi, Meftah

2017-12-01

The term ‘survival analysis’ has been used in a broad sense to describe collection of statistical procedures for data analysis. In this case, outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs where the time to failure of a specific experimental unit might be censored which can be right, left, interval, and Partly Interval Censored data (PIC). In this paper, analysis of this model was conducted based on parametric Cox model via PIC data. Moreover, several imputation techniques were used, which are: midpoint, left & right point, random, mean, and median. Maximum likelihood estimate was considered to obtain the estimated survival function. These estimations were then compared with the existing model, such as: Turnbull and Cox model based on clinical trial data (breast cancer data), for which it showed the validity of the proposed model. Result of data set indicated that the parametric of Cox model proved to be more superior in terms of estimation of survival functions, likelihood ratio tests, and their P-values. Moreover, based on imputation techniques; the midpoint, random, mean, and median showed better results with respect to the estimation of survival function.

In situ method for estimating cell survival in a solid tumor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alfieri, A.A.; Hahn, E.W.

1978-09-01

The response of the murine Meth-A fibrosarcoma to single and fractionated doses of x-irradiation, actinomycin D chemotherapy, and/or concomitant local tumor hyperthermia was assayed with the use of an in situ method for estimating cell kill within a solid tumor. The cell survival assay was based on a standard curve plotting number of inoculated viable cells with and without radiation-inactivated homologous tumor cells versus the time required for i.m. tumors to grow to 1.0 cu cm. The time for post-treatment tumors to grow to 1.0 cu cm was cross-referenced to the standard curve, and the number of surviving cells contributingmore » to tumor regrowth was estimated. The resulting surviving fraction curves closely resemble those obtained with in vitro systems.« less

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia. PMID:19331670

Factors influencing wild turkey hen survival in southcentral Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, M.W.; Garner, D.L.; Klaas, E.E.

1999-01-01

A decline in the population of eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) in southcentral Iowa necessitated more current estimates of population parameters. Survival of 126 eastern wild turkey hens in southcentral Iowa was investigated during 1993-96. Estimates of annual survival averaged 0.676 ?? 0.048% (x?? ?? SE) for adults and 0.713 ?? 0.125 for subadults. Mammalian predators, primarily coyotes (Canis latrans) and red fox (Vulpes fulva) accounted for 64% of all documented mortality. Age-specific annual survival distributions differed within years (P < 0.03), but no difference was detected in survival between age classes across years (P = 0.49). Based on chronological dates, survival of adult hens differed among seasons across years (P = 0.03). However, seasonal survival was not different when estimates were based on hen behavior (p = 0.48). Risk of mortality for hens increased by 2.0% for every 100-m increase in dispersal distance, decreased by 2.0% for every 10-ha increase in home range size, and decreased by 3.5% for each 1.0% increase in proportion of home range in woody cover. Although the exact cause of the population decline remains unknown, we suggest it was more likely related to a decrease in production than changes in hen survival. Declining turkey populations would likely benefit more from management designed to increase reproduction rather than hen survival.

Survival of Juvenile Chinook Salmon during Barge Transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Skalski, J. R.; Deters, Katherine A.

2011-12-01

To mitigate for fish losses related to passage through the Federal Columbia River Power System, an extensive fish transportation program using barges and trucks to move fish around and downstream of dams and reservoirs was implemented in 1981. Population modeling and other analyses to support Pacific salmon recovery efforts have assumed that the survival of juvenile salmonids during the transportation experience was 98%. To estimate survival during barge transport from Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River to a release area downstream of Bonneville Dam, a distance of 470 km, we used a novel adaptation of a release-recapture model withmore » acoustic-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) smolts. A total of 1,494 yearling Chinook salmon were surgically implanted with Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) acoustic transmitters and passive integrated transponders (PIT) and divided into three groups. The three tagged groups consisted of; (1) a group which was released into the raceway with the population of fish which were later loaded into transportation barges (R{sub B}), (2) a group which was held in a net-pen suspended within the general barge population until 5-6 h prior to barge evacuation, at which time they were confirmed to be alive and then released into the general barge population (R{sub A}), and (3) to validate a model assumption, a group which was euthanized and released into the barge population 2-8 h prior to barge evacuation (R{sub D}). Six replicates of these groups were loaded onto fish transport barges that departed Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River between 29 April and 13 May, 2010. Acoustic receiver arrays between 70 and 220 km downstream of the barge evacuation site were used to detect tagged fish and served as the basis for estimation of survival within the barge. Tag-life-corrected estimates of reach survival were calculated for barged and control fish in each of the six replicate trials. The ratio of survival from release to Rkm 153 for barged fish relative to control fish provided the estimate of within-barge survival. The replicate survival estimates ranged from 0.9503 (SE = 0.0253) to 1.0003 (SE = 0.0155). The weighted average of the replicate estimates of within-barge survival was computed to be = 0.9833 (SE = 0.0062). This study provides the first documentation that assumed survival of 98% inside barges during yearling Chinook salmon smolt transport appears to be justified. Survival of other species or stocks by barge or for any species/stock by truck remains unknown.« less

Adverse foraging conditions may impact body mass and survival of a high Arctic seabird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harding, A.M.A.; Welcker, J.; Steen, H.; Hamer, K.C.; Kitaysky, A.S.; Fort, J.; Talbot, S.L.; Cornick, L.A.; Karnovsky, N.J.; Gabrielsen, G.W.; Gremillet, D.

2011-01-01

Tradeoffs between current reproduction and future survival are widely recognized, but may only occur when food is limited: when foraging conditions are favorable, parents may be able to reproduce without compromising their own survival. We investigated these tradeoffs in the little auk (Alle alle), a small seabird with a single-egg clutch. During 2005-2007, we examined the relationship between body mass and survival of birds breeding under contrasting foraging conditions at two Arctic colonies. We used corticosterone levels of breeding adults as a physiological indicator of the foraging conditions they encountered during each reproductive season. We found that when foraging conditions were relatively poor (as reflected in elevated levels of corticosterone), parents ended the reproductive season with low body mass and suffered increased post-breeding mortality. A positive relationship between body mass and post-breeding survival was found in one study year; light birds incurred higher survival costs than heavy birds. The results of this study suggest that reproducing under poor foraging conditions may affect the post-breeding survival of long-lived little auks. They also have important demographic implications because even a small change in adult survival may have a large effect on populations of long-lived species. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

History of thyroid disease and survival of ovarian cancer patients: results from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium, a brief report.

PubMed

Minlikeeva, Albina N; Freudenheim, Jo L; Cannioto, Rikki A; Eng, Kevin H; Szender, J Brian; Mayor, Paul; Etter, John L; Cramer, Daniel W; Diergaarde, Brenda; Doherty, Jennifer A; Dörk, Thilo; Edwards, Robert; deFazio, Anna; Friel, Grace; Goodman, Marc T; Hillemanns, Peter; Høgdall, Estrid; Jensen, Allan; Jordan, Susan J; Karlan, Beth Y; Kjær, Susanne K; Klapdor, Rüdiger; Matsuo, Keitaro; Mizuno, Mika; Nagle, Christina M; Odunsi, Kunle; Paddock, Lisa; Rossing, Mary Anne; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Schmalfeldt, Barbara; Segal, Brahm H; Starbuck, Kristen; Terry, Kathryn L; Webb, Penelope M; Zsiros, Emese; Ness, Roberta B; Modugno, Francesmary; Bandera, Elisa V; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Moysich, Kirsten B

2017-09-26

Findings from in vitro studies suggest that increased exposure to thyroid hormones can influence progression of ovarian tumours. However, epidemiologic evidence on this topic is limited. We pooled data from 11 studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, we estimated associations between hyper- and hypothyroidism and medications prescribed for these conditions with 5-year all-cause survival among women diagnosed with invasive ovarian cancer. Overall, there was a nonsignificant association with history of hyperthyroidism (n=160 cases) and mortality (HR=1.22; 95% CI=0.97-1.53). Furthermore, diagnosis of hyperthyroidism within the 5 years before ovarian cancer diagnosis was associated with an increased risk of death (HR=1.94; 95% CI=1.19-3.18). A more modest association was observed with history of hypothyroidism (n=624 cases) and mortality (HR=1.16; 95% CI=1.03-1.31). Neither duration of hypothyroidism nor use of thyroid medications was associated with survival. In this large study of women with ovarian cancer, we found that recent history of hyperthyroidism and overall history of hypothyroidism were associated with worse 5-year survival.

New agreement measures based on survival processes

PubMed Central

Guo, Ying; Li, Ruosha; Peng, Limin; Manatunga, Amita K.

2013-01-01

Summary The need to assess agreement arises in many scenarios in biomedical sciences when measurements were taken by different methods on the same subjects. When the endpoints are survival outcomes, the study of agreement becomes more challenging given the special characteristics of time-to-event data. In this paper, we propose a new framework for assessing agreement based on survival processes that can be viewed as a natural representation of time-to-event outcomes. Our new agreement measure is formulated as the chance-corrected concordance between survival processes. It provides a new perspective for studying the relationship between correlated survival outcomes and offers an appealing interpretation as the agreement between survival times on the absolute distance scale. We provide a multivariate extension of the proposed agreement measure for multiple methods. Furthermore, the new framework enables a natural extension to evaluate time-dependent agreement structure. We develop nonparametric estimation of the proposed new agreement measures. Our estimators are shown to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators through simulation studies and then illustrate the methods using a prostate cancer data example. PMID:23844617

Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

PubMed

Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

2017-12-01

We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends in Rainbow Trout recruitment, abundance, survival, and growth during a boom-and-bust cycle in a tailwater fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Yard, Micheal D.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

2017-01-01

Data from a large-scale mark-recapture study was used in an open population model to determine the cause for long-term trends in growth and abundance of a Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss population in the tailwater of Glen Canyon Dam, AZ. Reduced growth affected multiple life stages and processes causing negative feedbacks that regulated the abundance of the population, including: higher mortality of larger fish; lower rates of recruitment (young of year) in years when growth was reduced; and lower rates of sexual maturation the following year. High and steady flows during spring and summer of 2011 resulted in very large recruitment event. The population declined 10-fold by 2016 due a combination of lower recruitment and reduced survival of larger trout. Survival rates for trout ≥ 225 mm in 2014, 2015, and 2016 were 11%, 21%, and 22% lower than average survival rates between 2012 and 2013, respectively. Abundance at the end of the study would have been three- to five-fold higher had survival rates for larger trout remained at the elevated levels estimated for 2012 and 2013. Growth declined between 2012 and 2014 owing to reduced prey availability, which led to very poor fish condition by fall of 2014 (~0.9-0.95). Poor condition in turn resulted in low survival rates of larger fish during fall of 2014 and winter of 2015, which contributed to the population collapse. In Glen Canyon, large recruitment events driven by high flows can lead to increases in the population that cannot be sustained due to limitations in prey supply. In the absence of being able to regulate prey supply, flows which reduce the probability of large recruitment events can be used to avoid boom-and-bust population cycles. Our study demonstrates that mark-recapture is a very informative approach for understanding the dynamics of tailwater trout populations.

Some insight on censored cost estimators.

PubMed

Zhao, H; Cheng, Y; Bang, H

2011-08-30

Censored survival data analysis has been studied for many years. Yet, the analysis of censored mark variables, such as medical cost, quality-adjusted lifetime, and repeated events, faces a unique challenge that makes standard survival analysis techniques invalid. Because of the 'informative' censorship imbedded in censored mark variables, the use of the Kaplan-Meier (Journal of the American Statistical Association 1958; 53:457-481) estimator, as an example, will produce biased estimates. Innovative estimators have been developed in the past decade in order to handle this issue. Even though consistent estimators have been proposed, the formulations and interpretations of some estimators are less intuitive to practitioners. On the other hand, more intuitive estimators have been proposed, but their mathematical properties have not been established. In this paper, we prove the analytic identity between some estimators (a statistically motivated estimator and an intuitive estimator) for censored cost data. Efron (1967) made similar investigation for censored survival data (between the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the redistribute-to-the-right algorithm). Therefore, we view our study as an extension of Efron's work to informatively censored data so that our findings could be applied to other marked variables. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Water beetle tolerance to salinity and anionic composition and its relationship to habitat occupancy.

PubMed

Céspedes, V; Pallarés, S; Arribas, P; Millán, A; Velasco, J

2013-10-01

Water salinity and ionic composition are among the main environmental variables that constrain the fundamental niches of aquatic species, and accordingly, physiological tolerance to these factors constitutes a crucial part of the evolution, ecology, and biogeography of these organisms. The present study experimentally estimated the fundamental saline and anionic niches of adults of two pairs of congeneric saline beetle species that differ in habitat preference (lotic and lentic) in order to test the habitat constraint hypothesis. Osmotic and anionic realised niches were also estimated based on the field occurrences of adult beetle species using Outlying Mean Index analysis and their relationship with experimental tolerances. In the laboratory, all of the studied species showed a threshold response to increased salinity, displaying high survival times when exposed to low and intermediate conductivity levels. These results suggest that these species are not strictly halophilic, but that they are able to regulate both hyperosmotically and hypoosmotically. Anionic water composition had a significant effect on salinity tolerance at conductivity levels near their upper tolerance limits, with decreased species survival at elevated sulphate concentrations. Species occupying lentic habitats demonstrated higher salinity tolerance than their lotic congeners in agreement with the habitat constraint hypothesis. As expected, realised salinity niches were narrower than fundamental niches and corresponded to conditions near the upper tolerance limits of the species. These species are uncommon on freshwater-low conductivity habitats despite the fact that these conditions might be physiologically suitable for the adult life stage. Other factors, such as biotic interactions, could prevent their establishment at low salinities. Differences in the realised anionic niches of congeneric species could be partially explained by the varying habitat availability in the study area. Combining the experimental estimation of fundamental niches with realised field data niche estimates is a powerful method for understanding the main factors constraining species' distribution at multiple scales, which is a key issue when predicting species' ability to cope with global change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of production conditions on the stability of a human bifidobacterial species Bifidobacterium longum in yogurt.

PubMed

Abe, F; Tomita, S; Yaeshima, T; Iwatsuki, K

2009-12-01

Human bifidobacteria are more sensitive to external environmental factors than animal bifidobacteria, and it is difficult to ensure their stable survival in yogurt. The purpose of this investigation was to observe the survival of human bifidobacteria in yogurts produced under various production conditions. Frozen or lyophilized bifidobacteria starters containing Bifidobacterium longum BB536 originally isolated from an infant, and commercial lyophilized yogurt starters were used for yogurt preparation. After producing yogurts under various conditions, the survival of bifidobacteria in these yogurts over various storage periods was observed. Although there were some differences in bifidobacterial survival in yogurt between various production conditions, more than 1.0 x 10(7) CFU g(-1) of Bif. longum survived in yogurt after 35 days' storage at 5 degrees C. Lower fermentation temperature (37 degrees C) and inclusion of Lactococcus lactis in the starter significantly (P < 0.05) improved survival of Bif. longum in the yogurt. In this investigation, the human bifidobacterial strain Bif. longum survived adequately in yogurt, although the fermentation temperature and starter composition affect bifidobacterial survival. This investigation indicates that stable probiotic yogurt using human bifidobacteria can be produced by choosing optimal production conditions.

Using instrumental variables to estimate a Cox's proportional hazards regression subject to additive confounding

PubMed Central

Tosteson, Tor D.; Morden, Nancy E.; Stukel, Therese A.; O'Malley, A. James

2014-01-01

The estimation of treatment effects is one of the primary goals of statistics in medicine. Estimation based on observational studies is subject to confounding. Statistical methods for controlling bias due to confounding include regression adjustment, propensity scores and inverse probability weighted estimators. These methods require that all confounders are recorded in the data. The method of instrumental variables (IVs) can eliminate bias in observational studies even in the absence of information on confounders. We propose a method for integrating IVs within the framework of Cox's proportional hazards model and demonstrate the conditions under which it recovers the causal effect of treatment. The methodology is based on the approximate orthogonality of an instrument with unobserved confounders among those at risk. We derive an estimator as the solution to an estimating equation that resembles the score equation of the partial likelihood in much the same way as the traditional IV estimator resembles the normal equations. To justify this IV estimator for a Cox model we perform simulations to evaluate its operating characteristics. Finally, we apply the estimator to an observational study of the effect of coronary catheterization on survival. PMID:25506259

Using instrumental variables to estimate a Cox's proportional hazards regression subject to additive confounding.

PubMed

MacKenzie, Todd A; Tosteson, Tor D; Morden, Nancy E; Stukel, Therese A; O'Malley, A James

2014-06-01

The estimation of treatment effects is one of the primary goals of statistics in medicine. Estimation based on observational studies is subject to confounding. Statistical methods for controlling bias due to confounding include regression adjustment, propensity scores and inverse probability weighted estimators. These methods require that all confounders are recorded in the data. The method of instrumental variables (IVs) can eliminate bias in observational studies even in the absence of information on confounders. We propose a method for integrating IVs within the framework of Cox's proportional hazards model and demonstrate the conditions under which it recovers the causal effect of treatment. The methodology is based on the approximate orthogonality of an instrument with unobserved confounders among those at risk. We derive an estimator as the solution to an estimating equation that resembles the score equation of the partial likelihood in much the same way as the traditional IV estimator resembles the normal equations. To justify this IV estimator for a Cox model we perform simulations to evaluate its operating characteristics. Finally, we apply the estimator to an observational study of the effect of coronary catheterization on survival.

Monitoring of Juvenile Yearling Chinook Salmon and Steelhead Survival and Passage at Bonneville Dam, Spring 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ploskey, Gene R.; Faber, Derrek M.; Weiland, Mark A.

2011-02-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the survival for yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts during spring 2010 in a portion of the Columbia River that includes Bonneville Dam. The study estimated smolt survival from a virtual release at Bonneville Dam to a survival array 81 km downstream of Bonneville Dam. We also estimated median forebay residence time, median tailrace egress time, and spill passage efficiency (SPE), as required in the Columbia Basin Fish Accords. A single release design was used to estimate survival from Bonneville Dam to a primary array located 81 km downstream of Bonneville. Themore » approach did not include a reference tailrace release. Releases of acoustic-tagged smolts above John Day Dam to Hood River contributed to the formation of virtual releases at a Bonneville Dam forebay entrance array and at the face of the dam. A total of 3,880 yearling Chinook salmon and 3,885 steelhead smolts were tagged and released in the investigation. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) tag model number ATS-156dB, weighing 0.438 g in air, was used in this investigation.« less

Cancer-specific mortality, cure fraction, and noncancer causes of death among diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients in the immunochemotherapy era.

PubMed

Howlader, Nadia; Mariotto, Angela B; Besson, Caroline; Suneja, Gita; Robien, Kim; Younes, Naji; Engels, Eric A

2017-09-01

Survival after the diagnosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has been increasing since 2002 because of improved therapies; however, long-term outcomes for these patients in the modern treatment era are still unknown. Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, this study first assessed factors associated with DLBCL-specific mortality during 2002-2012. An epidemiologic risk profile, based on clinical and demographic characteristics, was used to stratify DLBCL cases into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The proportions of DLBCL cases that might be considered cured in these 3 risk groups was estimated. Risks of death due to various noncancer causes among DLBCL cases versus the general population were also calculated with standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Overall, 8274 deaths were recorded among 18,047 DLBCL cases; 76% of the total deaths were attributed to DLBCL, and 24% were attributed to noncancer causes. The 10-year survival rates for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 80%, 60%, and 36%, respectively. The estimated cure proportions for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 73%, 49%, and 27%, respectively; however, these cure estimates were uncertain because of the need to extrapolate the survival curves beyond the follow-up time. Mortality risks calculated with SMRs were elevated for conditions including vascular diseases (SMR, 1.3), infections (SMR, 3.1), gastrointestinal diseases (SMR, 2.5), and blood diseases (SMR, 4.6). These mortality risks were especially high within the initial 5 years after the diagnosis and declined after 5 years. Some DLBCL patients may be cured of their cancer, but they continue to experience excess mortality from lymphoma and other noncancer causes. Cancer 2017;123:3326-34. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Kokanee Stocking and Monitoring, Flathead Lake, 1993-1994 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deleray, Mark; Fredenberg, Wade; Hansen, Barry

1995-07-01

One mitigation goal of the Hungry Horse Dam fisheries mitigation program, funded by the Bonneville Power Administration, is to replace lost production of 100,000 adult kokanee in Flathead Lake. The mitigation program calls for a five-year test to determine if kokanee can be reestablished in Flathead Lake. The test consists. of annual stocking of one million hatchery-raised yearling kokanee. There are three benchmarks for judging the success of the kokanee reintroduction effort: (1) Post-stocking survival of 30 percent of planted kokanee one year after stocking; (2) Yearling to adult survival of 10 percent (100,000 adult salmon); (3) Annual kokanee harvestmore » of 50,000 or more fish per year by 1998, with an average length of 11 inches or longer for harvested fish, and fishing pressure of 100,000 angler hours or more. Kokanee were the primary sport fish species in the Flathead Lake fishery in the early 1900s, and up until the late 1980s when the population rapidly declined in numbers and then disappeared. Factors identified which influenced the decline of kokanee are the introduction of opossum shrimp (Mysis relicta), hydroelectric operations, overharvest through angling, and competition and/or predation by lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and lake whitefish (Coregonur clupeaformis). The purpose of this report was to summarize the stocking program and present monitoring results from the 1993 and 1994 field seasons. In June 1993, roughly 210,000 yearling kokanee were stocked into two bays on the east shore of Flathead Lake. Following stocking, we observed a high incidence of stocked kokanee in stomach samples from lake trout captured in areas adjacent to the stocking sites and a high percentage of captured lake trout containing kokanee. Subsequent monitoring concluded that excessive lake trout predation precluded significant survival of kokanee stocked in 1993. In June 1994, over 802,000 kokanee were stocked into Big Arm Bay. The combination of near optimum water temperatures, an upsurge in the abundance of Duphniu rhorum, and saturation planting in an area believed to have lower lake trout densities was expected to maximize short-term survival of stocked kokanee. A net-pen experiment demonstrated that yearling hatchery kokanee, in the absence of predation, adjusted to conditions in Flathead Lake and utilized available zooplankton during June and July without substantial poststocking mortality. Kokanee captured after several months in the lake exhibited good growth and condition. We concluded that the food supply in Big Arm Bay was not limiting survival of stocked kokanee. The 1994 monitoring objective was to quantify lake trout predation of kokanee in Big Arm Bay in the first eight weeks following stocking. There were three components needed to quantify predation; estimated number of lake trout in Big Arm Bay, average number of kokanee consumed by lake trout, and estimated time required for lake trout to digest kokanee. As in the previous year, the monitoring results from the 1994 kokanee plant demonstrated that lake trout predation is the primary factor reducing survival of stocked kokanee. We estimated that lake trout consumed a minimum of 232,000 kokanee in Big Arm Bay during the first eight weeks following stocking. This represents 29 percent of kokanee planted. The consumption estimate was based on a hydroacoustic estimate for lake trout abundance (7,850 fish over 300 mm in total length), an incidence of kokanee per lake trout stomach sample which ranged from 2.99 to 0.22 fish, and a gastric evacuation rate of 47 hours for lake trout to digest consumed kokanee. Due to hydroacoustic limitations in identifying bottom-oriented lake trout, we underestimated the true abundance of lake trout, which led to an underestimate of kokanee mortality. By fall of 1994, we estimated that an additional 12.7 percent of surviving kokanee matured, based on observations of similar-sized fish in the hatchery. Thus, up to 72,000 additional fish were removed from the population due to early maturation. Adding the loss due to predation in the first eight weeks (232,000) to the loss due to early maturation (72,000), we accounted for mortality of at least 304,000 (38 percent) of the original 802,000 fish planted. These estimates did not account for additional losses, including predation outside Big Arm Bay, predation in the months following July, and predation from species other than lake trout, such as bull trout and northern squawfish. We documented lake trout predation of kokanee from June through October, and predation by fish species other than lake trout. One of the program goals is to achieve post-stocking survival of 30 percent one year after planting. Based on observations of the 1994 program, it is unlikely we will achieve this level of survival from the 1994 plant.« less

Meta-analysis of single-arm survival studies: a distribution-free approach for estimating summary survival curves with random effects.

PubMed

Combescure, Christophe; Foucher, Yohann; Jackson, Daniel

2014-07-10

In epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with time-dependent outcome (for instance death or disease progression), survival curves are used to describe the risk of the event over time. In meta-analyses of studies reporting a survival curve, the most informative finding is a summary survival curve. In this paper, we propose a method to obtain a distribution-free summary survival curve by expanding the product-limit estimator of survival for aggregated survival data. The extension of DerSimonian and Laird's methodology for multiple outcomes is applied to account for the between-study heterogeneity. Statistics I(2)  and H(2) are used to quantify the impact of the heterogeneity in the published survival curves. A statistical test for between-strata comparison is proposed, with the aim to explore study-level factors potentially associated with survival. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in a simulation study. Our approach is also applied to synthesize the survival of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from aggregate data of 27 studies and synthesize the graft survival of kidney transplant recipients from individual data from six hospitals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Conditional survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

PubMed

Sasaki, Koji; Kantarjian, Hagop M; Jain, Preetesh; Jabbour, Elias J; Ravandi, Farhad; Konopleva, Marina; Borthakur, Gautam; Takahashi, Koichi; Pemmaraju, Naveen; Daver, Naval; Pierce, Sherry A; O'Brien, Susan M; Cortes, Jorge E

2016-01-15

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) significantly improve survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP). Conditional probability provides survival information in patients who have already survived for a specific period of time after treatment. Cumulative response and survival data from 6 consecutive frontline TKI clinical trials were analyzed. Conditional probability was calculated for failure-free survival (FFS), transformation-free survival (TFS), event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS) according to depth of response within 1 year of the initiation of TKIs, including complete cytogenetic response, major molecular response, and molecular response with a 4-log or 4.5-log reduction. A total of 483 patients with a median follow-up of 99.4 months from the initiation of treatment with TKIs were analyzed. Conditional probabilities of FFS, TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year for patients alive after 12 months of therapy ranged from 92.0% to 99.1%, 98.5% to 100%, 96.2% to 99.6%, and 96.8% to 99.7%, respectively. Conditional FFS for 1 additional year did not improve with a deeper response each year. Conditional probabilities of TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year were maintained at >95% during the period. In the era of TKIs, patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase who survived for a certain number of years maintained excellent clinical outcomes in each age group. Cancer 2016;122:238-248. © 2015 American Cancer Society. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Geographical variation in cancer survival in England, 1991–2006: an analysis by Cancer Network

PubMed Central

Quaresma, Manuela; Coleman, Michel P; Gordon, Emma; Forman, David; Rachet, Bernard

2011-01-01

Background Reducing geographical inequalities in cancer survival in England was a key aim of the Calman–Hine Report (1995) and the NHS Cancer Plan (2000). This study assesses whether geographical inequalities changed following these policy developments by analysing the trend in 1-year relative survival in the 28 cancer networks of England. Methods Population-based age-standardised relative survival at 1 year is estimated for 1.4 million patients diagnosed with cancer of the oesophagus, stomach, colon, lung, breast (women) or cervix in England during 1991–2006 and followed up to 2007. Regional and deprivation-specific life tables are built to adjust survival estimates for differences in background mortality. Analysis is divided into three calendar periods: 1991–5, 1996–2000 and 2001–6. Funnel plots are used to assess geographical variation in survival over time. Results One-year relative survival improved for all cancers except cervical cancer. There was a wide geographical variation in survival with generally lower estimates in northern England. This north–south divide became less marked over time, although the overall number of cancer networks that were lower outliers compared with the England value remained stable. Breast cancer was the only cancer for which there was a marked reduction in geographical inequality in survival over time. Conclusion Policy changes over the past two decades coincided with improved relative survival, without an increase in geographical variation. The north–south divide in relative survival became less pronounced over time but geographical inequalities persist. The reduction in geographical inequality in breast cancer survival may be followed by a similar trend for other cancers, provided government recommendations are implemented similarly. PMID:21321064

Modeling the Evolution of Female Meiotic Drive in Maize

PubMed Central

Hall, David W.; Dawe, R. Kelly

2017-01-01

Autosomal drivers violate Mendel’s law of segregation in that they are overrepresented in gametes of heterozygous parents. For drivers to be polymorphic within populations rather than fixing, their transmission advantage must be offset by deleterious effects on other fitness components. In this paper, we develop an analytical model for the evolution of autosomal drivers that is motivated by the neocentromere drive system found in maize. In particular, we model both the transmission advantage and deleterious fitness effects on seed viability, pollen viability, seed to adult survival mediated by maternal genotype, and seed to adult survival mediated by offspring genotype. We derive general, biologically intuitive conditions for the four most likely evolutionary outcomes and discuss the expected evolution of autosomal drivers given these conditions. Finally, we determine the expected equilibrium allele frequencies predicted by the model given recent estimates of fitness components for all relevant genotypes and show that the predicted equilibrium is within the range observed in maize land races for levels of drive at the low end of what has been observed. PMID:29122849

Seasonal productivity in a population of migratory songbirds: why nest data are not enough

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streby, Henry M.; Andersen, David E.

2011-01-01

Population models for many animals are limited by a lack of information regarding juvenile survival. In particular, studies of songbird reproductive output typically terminate with the success or failure of nests, despite the fact that adults spend the rest of the reproductive season rearing dependent fledglings. Unless fledgling survival does not vary, or varies consistently with nest productivity, conclusions about population dynamics based solely on nest data may be misleading. During 2007 and 2008, we monitored nests and used radio telemetry to monitor fledgling survival for a population of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in a managed-forest landscape in north-central Minnesota, USA. In addition to estimating nest and fledgling survival, we modeled growth for population segments partitioned by proximity to edges of non-nesting cover types (regenerating clearcuts). Nest survival was significantly lower, but fledgling survival was significantly higher, in 2007 than in 2008. Despite higher nest productivity in 2008, seasonal productivity (number of young surviving to independence per breeding female) was higher in 2007. Proximity to clearcut edge did not affect nest productivity. However, fledglings from nests near regenerating sapling-dominated clearcuts (7–20 years since harvest) had higher daily survival (0.992 ± 0.005) than those from nests in interior forest (0.978 ± 0.006), which in turn had higher daily survival than fledglings from nests near shrub-dominated clearcuts (≤6 years since harvest; 0.927 ± 0.030) in 2007, with a similar but statistically non-significant trend in 2008. Our population growth models predicted growth rates that differed by 2–39% (x¯ = 25%) from simpler models in which we replaced our estimates of first-year survival with one-half adult annual survival (an estimate commonly used in songbird population growth models). We conclude that nest productivity is an inadequate measure of songbird seasonal productivity, and that results based exclusively on nest data can yield misleading conclusions about population growth and clearcut edge effects. We suggest that direct estimates of juvenile survival could provide more accurate information for the management and conservation of many animal taxa.

Migratory Behavior and Survival of Juvenile Salmonids in the Lower Columbia River, Estuary, and Plume in 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Harnish, Ryan A.; Skalski, John R.

Uncertainty regarding the migratory behavior and survival of juvenile salmonids passing through the lower Columbia River and estuary after negotiating dams on the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) prompted the development and application of the Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS). The JSATS has been used to investigate the survival of juvenile salmonid smolts between Bonneville Dam (river kilometer (rkm) 236) and the mouth of the Columbia River annually since 2004. In 2010, a total of 12,214 juvenile salmonids were implanted with both a passive integrated transponder (PIT) and a JSATS acoustic transmitter. Using detection information from JSATS receivermore » arrays deployed on dams and in the river, estuary, and plume, the survival probability of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts tagged at John Day Dam was estimated form multiple reaches between rkm 153 and 8.3 during the spring. During summer, the survival probability of subyearling Chinook salmon was estimated for the same reaches. In addition, the influence of routes of passage (e.g., surface spill, deep spill, turbine, juvenile bypass system) through the lower three dams on the Columbia River (John Day, The Dalles, and Bonneville) on juvenile salmonid smolt survival probability from the dams to rkm 153 and then between rkm 153 and 8.3 was examined to increase understanding of the immediate and latent effects of dam passage on juvenile salmon survival. Similar to previous findings, survival probability was relatively high (>0.95) for most groups of juvenile salmonids from the Bonneville Dam tailrace to about rkm 50. Downstream of rkm 50 the survival probability of all species and run types we examined decreased markedly. Steelhead smolts suffered the highest mortality in this lower portion of the Columbia River estuary, with only an estimated 60% of the tagged fish surviving to the mouth of the river. In contrast, yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon smolts survived to the mouth of the river at higher rates, with estimated survival probabilities of 84% and 86%, respectively. The influence of route of passage at the lower three dams in the FCRPS on juvenile salmonid survival appeared to be relatively direct and immediate. Significant differences in estimated survival probabilities of juvenile salmonid smolts among groups with different dam passage experiences were often detected between the dams and rkm 153. In contrast, the influence of route of passage on survival to the mouth of the Columbia River was not apparent among the groups of tagged juvenile salmonids with different FCRPS passage experiences after they had already survived to a point about 80 km downstream of Bonneville Dam. Yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts that migrated through the lower estuary in off-channel habitats took two to three times longer to travel through these lower reaches and their estimated survival probabilities were not significantly different from that of their cohorts which migrated in or near the navigation channel. A large proportion of the tagged juvenile salmonids migrating in or near the navigation channel in the lower estuary crossed from the south side of the estuary near Astoria, Oregon and passed through relatively shallow expansive sand flats (Taylor Sands) to the North Channel along the Washington shore of the estuary. This migratory behavior may contribute to the avian predation losses observed on for fish (2 to 12% of fish in this study).« less

[Nonparametric method of estimating survival functions containing right-censored and interval-censored data].

PubMed

Xu, Yonghong; Gao, Xiaohuan; Wang, Zhengxi

2014-04-01

Missing data represent a general problem in many scientific fields, especially in medical survival analysis. Dealing with censored data, interpolation method is one of important methods. However, most of the interpolation methods replace the censored data with the exact data, which will distort the real distribution of the censored data and reduce the probability of the real data falling into the interpolation data. In order to solve this problem, we in this paper propose a nonparametric method of estimating the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data and compare its performance to SC (self-consistent) algorithm. Comparing to the average interpolation and the nearest neighbor interpolation method, the proposed method in this paper replaces the right-censored data with the interval-censored data, and greatly improves the probability of the real data falling into imputation interval. Then it bases on the empirical distribution theory to estimate the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data. The results of numerical examples and a real breast cancer data set demonstrated that the proposed method had higher accuracy and better robustness for the different proportion of the censored data. This paper provides a good method to compare the clinical treatments performance with estimation of the survival data of the patients. This pro vides some help to the medical survival data analysis.

How do we estimate survival? External validation of a tool for survival estimation in patients with metastatic bone disease-decision analysis and comparison of three international patient populations.

PubMed

Piccioli, Andrea; Spinelli, M Silvia; Forsberg, Jonathan A; Wedin, Rikard; Healey, John H; Ippolito, Vincenzo; Daolio, Primo Andrea; Ruggieri, Pietro; Maccauro, Giulio; Gasbarrini, Alessandro; Biagini, Roberto; Piana, Raimondo; Fazioli, Flavio; Luzzati, Alessandro; Di Martino, Alberto; Nicolosi, Francesco; Camnasio, Francesco; Rosa, Michele Attilio; Campanacci, Domenico Andrea; Denaro, Vincenzo; Capanna, Rodolfo

2015-05-22

We recently developed a clinical decision support tool, capable of estimating the likelihood of survival at 3 and 12 months following surgery for patients with operable skeletal metastases. After making it publicly available on www.PATHFx.org , we attempted to externally validate it using independent, international data. We collected data from patients treated at 13 Italian orthopaedic oncology referral centers between 2010 and 2013, then applied to PATHFx, which generated a probability of survival at three and 12-months for each patient. We assessed accuracy using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), clinical utility using Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), and compared the Italian patient data to the training set (United States) and first external validation set (Scandinavia). The Italian dataset contained 287 records with at least 12 months follow-up information. The AUCs for the three-month and 12-month estimates was 0.80 and 0.77, respectively. There were missing data, including the surgeon's estimate of survival that was missing in the majority of records. Physiologically, Italian patients were similar to patients in the training and first validation sets. However notable differences were observed in the proportion of those surviving three and 12-months, suggesting differences in referral patterns and perhaps indications for surgery. PATHFx was successfully validated in an Italian dataset containing missing data. This study demonstrates its broad applicability to European patients, even in centers with differing treatment philosophies from those previously studied.

The contrasting effects of short-term climate change on the early recruitment of tree species.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Inés; Katz, Daniel S W; Lee, Benjamin R

2017-07-01

Predictions of plant responses to climate change are frequently based on organisms' presence in warmer locations, which are then assumed to reflect future performance in cooler areas. However, as plant life stages may be affected differently by environmental changes, there is little empirical evidence that this approach provides reliable estimates of short-term responses to global warming. Under this premise, we analyzed 8 years of early recruitment data, seed production and seedling establishment and survival, collected for two tree species at two latitudes. We quantified recruitment to a wide range of environmental conditions, temperature, soil moisture and light, and simulated recruitment under two forecasted climatic scenarios. Annual demographic transitions were affected by the particular conditions taking place during their onset, but the effects of similar environmental shifts differed among the recruitment stages; seed production was higher in warmer years, while seedling establishment and survival peaked during cold years. Within a species, these effects also varied between latitudes; increasing temperatures at the southern location will have stronger detrimental effects on recruitment than similar changes at the northern locations. Our simulations illustrate that warmer temperatures may increase seed production, but they will have a negative effect on establishment and survival. When the three early recruitment processes were simultaneously considered, simulations showed little change in recruitment dynamics at the northern site and a slight decrease at the southern site. It is only when we considered these three stages that we were able to assess likely changes in early recruitment under the predicted conditions.

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

PubMed

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

The use of simple reparameterizations to improve the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation for multilevel models with applications to discrete time survival models.

PubMed

Browne, William J; Steele, Fiona; Golalizadeh, Mousa; Green, Martin J

2009-06-01

We consider the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods to random-effects models and in particular the family of discrete time survival models. Survival models can be used in many situations in the medical and social sciences and we illustrate their use through two examples that differ in terms of both substantive area and data structure. A multilevel discrete time survival analysis involves expanding the data set so that the model can be cast as a standard multilevel binary response model. For such models it has been shown that MCMC methods have advantages in terms of reducing estimate bias. However, the data expansion results in very large data sets for which MCMC estimation is often slow and can produce chains that exhibit poor mixing. Any way of improving the mixing will result in both speeding up the methods and more confidence in the estimates that are produced. The MCMC methodological literature is full of alternative algorithms designed to improve mixing of chains and we describe three reparameterization techniques that are easy to implement in available software. We consider two examples of multilevel survival analysis: incidence of mastitis in dairy cattle and contraceptive use dynamics in Indonesia. For each application we show where the reparameterization techniques can be used and assess their performance.

Greater sage-grouse apparent nest productivity and chick survival in Carbon County, Wyoming

DOE PAGES

Schreiber, Leslie A.; Hansen, Christopher P.; Rumble, Mark A.; ...

2016-03-01

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations across North America have been declining due to degradation and fragmentation of sagebrush habitat. As part of a study quantifying greater sage-grouse demographics prior to construction of a wind energy facility, we estimated apparent net nest productivity and survival rate of chicks associated with radio-equipped female sage-grouse in Carbon County, Wyoming, USA. We estimated apparent net nest productivity using a weighted mean of the average brood size and used a modified logistic-exposure method to estimate daily chick survival over a 70-day time period. Apparent nest productivity was 2.79 chicks per female (95% CI: 1.46–4.12) inmore » 2011, 2.00 chicks per female (95% CI: 1.00–3.00) in 2012, and 1.54 chick per female (95% CI: 0.62–2.46) in 2013. Chick survival to 70 days post-hatch was 19.10% (95% CI: 6.22–37.42%) in 2011, 4.20% (95% CI: 0.84–12.31%) in 2012, and 16.05% (95% CI: 7.67–27.22%) in 2013. These estimates were low, yet within the range of other published survival rates. Chick survival was primarily associated with year and chick age, with minor effects of average temperature between surveys and hatch date. The variability in chick survival rates across years of our study suggests annual weather patterns may have large impacts on chick survival. Thus, management actions that increase the availability of food and cover for chicks may be necessary, especially during years with drought and above-average spring temperatures.« less

Impact of Time to Treatment Initiation in Patients with Human Papillomavirus-positive and -negative Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Grønhøj, C; Jensen, D; Dehlendorff, C; Nørregaard, C; Andersen, E; Specht, L; Charabi, B; von Buchwald, C

2018-06-01

The distinct difference in disease phenotype of human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) and -negative (HPV-) oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) patients might also be apparent when assessing the effect of time to treatment initiation (TTI). We assessed the overall survival and progression-free survival (PFS) effect from increasing TTI for HPV+ and HPV- OPSCC patients. We examined patients who received curative-intended therapy for OPSCC in eastern Denmark between 2000 and 2014. TTI was the number of days from diagnosis to the initiation of curative treatment. Overall survival and PFS were measured from the start of treatment and estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression. At a median follow-up of 3.6 years (interquartile range 1.86-6.07 years), 1177 patients were included (59% HPV+). In the adjusted analysis for the HPV+ and HPV- patient population, TTI influenced overall survival and PFS, most evident in the HPV- group, where TTI >60 days statistically significantly influenced overall survival but not PFS (overall survival: hazard ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.45; PFS: hazard ratio 1.46; 95% confidence interval 0.96-2.22). For patients with a TTI >60 days in the HPV+ group, TTI affected overall survival and PFS similarly, with slightly lower hazard ratio estimates of 1.44 (95% confidence interval 0.83-2.51) and 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.70-1.88), respectively. For patients treated for a HPV+ or HPV- OPSCC, TTI affects outcome, with the strongest effect for overall survival among HPV- patients. Reducing TTI is an important tool to improve the prognosis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Minimum follow-up time required for the estimation of statistical cure of cancer patients: verification using data from 42 cancer sites in the SEER database

PubMed Central

Tai, Patricia; Yu, Edward; Cserni, Gábor; Vlastos, Georges; Royce, Melanie; Kunkler, Ian; Vinh-Hung, Vincent

2005-01-01

Background The present commonly used five-year survival rates are not adequate to represent the statistical cure. In the present study, we established the minimum number of years required for follow-up to estimate statistical cure rate, by using a lognormal distribution of the survival time of those who died of their cancer. We introduced the term, threshold year, the follow-up time for patients dying from the specific cancer covers most of the survival data, leaving less than 2.25% uncovered. This is close enough to cure from that specific cancer. Methods Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were tested if the survival times of cancer patients who died of their disease followed the lognormal distribution using a minimum chi-square method. Patients diagnosed from 1973–1992 in the registries of Connecticut and Detroit were chosen so that a maximum of 27 years was allowed for follow-up to 1999. A total of 49 specific organ sites were tested. The parameters of those lognormal distributions were found for each cancer site. The cancer-specific survival rates at the threshold years were compared with the longest available Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. Results The characteristics of the cancer-specific survival times of cancer patients who died of their disease from 42 cancer sites out of 49 sites were verified to follow different lognormal distributions. The threshold years validated for statistical cure varied for different cancer sites, from 2.6 years for pancreas cancer to 25.2 years for cancer of salivary gland. At the threshold year, the statistical cure rates estimated for 40 cancer sites were found to match the actuarial long-term survival rates estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method within six percentage points. For two cancer sites: breast and thyroid, the threshold years were so long that the cancer-specific survival rates could yet not be obtained because the SEER data do not provide sufficiently long follow-up. Conclusion The present study suggests a certain threshold year is required to wait before the statistical cure rate can be estimated for each cancer site. For some cancers, such as breast and thyroid, the 5- or 10-year survival rates inadequately reflect statistical cure rates, and highlight the need for long-term follow-up of these patients. PMID:15904508

Size-sex variation in survival rates and abundance of pig frogs, Rana grylio, in northern Florida wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, K.V.; Nichols, J.D.; Percival, H.F.; Hines, J.E.

1998-01-01

During 1991-1993, we conducted capture-recapture studies on pig frogs, Rana grylio, in seven study locations in northcentral Florida. Resulting data were used to test hypotheses about variation in survival probability over different size-sex classes of pig frogs. We developed multistate capture-recapture models for the resulting data and used them to estimate survival rates and frog abundance. Tests provided strong evidence of survival differences among size-sex classes, with adult females showing the highest survival probabilities. Adult males and juvenile frogs had lower survival rates that were similar to each other. Adult females were more abundant than adult males in most locations at most sampling occasions. We recommended probabilistic capture-recapture models in general, and multistate models in particular, for robust estimation of demographic parameters in amphibian populations.

Effects of fat reserves on annual apparent survival of blackbirds Turdus merula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.W.; Aradis, A.; Landucci, G.

2003-01-01

1. Fat reserves are stored energy that may help birds survive periods of harsh winter weather. This hypothesis predicts that annual apparent survival is higher for birds with large fat reserves than for birds with few or no fat reserves in winter. 2. Blackbirds (Turdus merula Linnaeus) were ringed in central Italy from 16 November to 20 February during 1990-2001. Fat scores were recorded for each bird. We used these capture-mark-recapture data for 1703 blackbirds to estimate the effect of large fat reserves on annual apparent survival, while controlling for transients, using computer programs surviv and mark. Probability of birds retaining large fat reserves, or retaining few fat reserves, over 2 successive years was also estimated. 3. Birds with large fat reserves did not have higher estimated annual apparent survival than birds with few fat reserves, inconsistent with our prediction. No effects of age, sex or year were detected on annual apparent survival. Birds with few fat reserves in any given year tended to have few fat reserves the following year. Birds with large fat reserves in any given year were unlikely to have large fat reserves the next year. 4. Large fat reserves may not increase annual survival of blackbirds wintering in central Italy. Winter weather in our study area may be too mild to effect survival. Alternatively, increased predation risk associated with large fat reserves may counteract any benefits of reduced starvation risk.

Age-specific survival of reintroduced swift fox in Badlands National Park and surrounding lands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sasmal, Indrani; Klaver, Robert W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Schroeder, Greg M.

2016-01-01

In 2003, a reintroduction program was initiated at Badlands National Park (BNP), South Dakota, USA, with swift foxes (Vulpes velox) translocated from Colorado and Wyoming, USA, as part of a restoration effort to recover declining swift fox populations throughout its historical range. Estimates of age-specific survival are necessary to evaluate the potential for population growth of reintroduced populations. We used 7 years (2003–2009) of capture–recapture data of 243 pups, 29 yearlings, and 69 adult swift foxes at BNP and the surrounding area to construct Cormack–Jolly–Seber model estimates of apparent survival within a capture–mark–recapture framework using Program MARK. The best model for estimating recapture probabilities included no differences among age classes, greater recapture probabilities during early years of the monitoring effort than later years, and variation among spring, winter, and summer. Our top ranked survival model indicated pup survival differed from that of yearlings and adults and varied by month and year. The apparent annual survival probability of pups (0.47, SE = 0.10) in our study area was greater than the apparent annual survival probability of yearlings and adults (0.27, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate low survival probabilities for a reintroduced population of swift foxes in the BNP and surrounding areas. Management of reintroduced populations and future reintroductions of swift foxes should consider the effects of relative low annual survival on population demography.

Lifetime medical expenditures among hypertensive men and women in the United States.

PubMed

Basu, Rituparna; Krueger, Patrick M; Lairson, David R; Franzini, Luisa

2011-01-01

Our objective was to estimate lifetime medical expenditures that can be attributed to hypertension, by gender, in the United States, given important gender differences in both survival and medical expenditures. We estimated lifetime medical expenditures among hypertensive and nonhypertensive men and women aged 20 and older. Expenditures were estimated from the 2001 to 2004 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and life expectancies were estimated from the 1986 to 2002 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files. Assuming that medical technology, the cost of health care services, the incidence of disease, and survival were fixed, the cross-sectional age-specific expenditures and the survival profiles were used to estimate the lifetime expenditures from ages 20 to older than 85. The estimated lifetime expenditure for an average life table individual at age 20 was $188,300 for hypertensive men and $254,910 for hypertensive women; however, a greater share of lifetime expenditures can be attributed to hypertension among men ($88,033) than among women ($40,960). Although hypertensive women had greater lifetime expenditures than hypertensive men, hypertension was associated with a greater increase in lifetime expenditures for men than for women. Gender differences in both survival and health care utilization have important implications for gender differences in lifetime medical expenditures. Copyright © 2011 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. All rights reserved.

The natural history of HIV infection in intravenous drug users: risk of disease progression in a cohort of seroconverters.

PubMed

Rezza, G; Lazzarin, A; Angarano, G; Sinicco, A; Pristerà, R; Ortona, L; Barbanera, M; Gafà, S; Tirelli, U; Salassa, B

1989-02-01

A multicentre cohort study was carried out to estimate the incidence of AIDS and HIV-related conditions in newly infected intravenous drug users (IVDU). The enrollment criteria included the identification of the seroconversion time. Two hundred and five subjects entered the study, and were followed for a mean of 26 months. Twelve subjects developed clinical AIDS over a 4-year period. The actuarial incidence of AIDS estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival technique was 17.8% by 4 years since seroconversion. The risk of developing AIDS increased significantly after 24 months from seroconversion. Relatively small figures accounted for the lack of statistical association between the risk factors investigated and the disease status.

Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

2015-12-01

Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

Developing an analytical tool for evaluating EMS system design changes and their impact on cardiac arrest outcomes: combining geographic information systems with register data on survival rates

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a frequent and acute medical condition that requires immediate care. We estimate survival rates from OHCA in the area of Stockholm, through developing an analytical tool for evaluating Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system design changes. The study also is an attempt to validate the proposed model used to generate the outcome measures for the study. Methods and results This was done by combining a geographic information systems (GIS) simulation of driving times with register data on survival rates. The emergency resources comprised ambulance alone and ambulance plus fire services. The simulation model predicted a baseline survival rate of 3.9 per cent, and reducing the ambulance response time by one minute increased survival to 4.6 per cent. Adding the fire services as first responders (dual dispatch) increased survival to 6.2 per cent from the baseline level. The model predictions were validated using empirical data. Conclusion We have presented an analytical tool that easily can be generalized to other regions or countries. The model can be used to predict outcomes of cardiac arrest prior to investment in EMS design changes that affect the alarm process, e.g. (1) static changes such as trimming the emergency call handling time or (2) dynamic changes such as location of emergency resources or which resources should carry a defibrillator. PMID:23415045

Heterozygosity-fitness correlations in a wild mammal population: accounting for parental and environmental effects.

PubMed

Annavi, Geetha; Newman, Christopher; Buesching, Christina D; Macdonald, David W; Burke, Terry; Dugdale, Hannah L

2014-06-01

HFCs (heterozygosity-fitness correlations) measure the direct relationship between an individual's genetic diversity and fitness. The effects of parental heterozygosity and the environment on HFCs are currently under-researched. We investigated these in a high-density U.K. population of European badgers (Meles meles), using a multimodel capture-mark-recapture framework and 35 microsatellite loci. We detected interannual variation in first-year, but not adult, survival probability. Adult females had higher annual survival probabilities than adult males. Cubs with more heterozygous fathers had higher first-year survival, but only in wetter summers; there was no relationship with individual or maternal heterozygosity. Moist soil conditions enhance badger food supply (earthworms), improving survival. In dryer years, higher indiscriminate mortality rates appear to mask differential heterozygosity-related survival effects. This paternal interaction was significant in the most supported model; however, the model-averaged estimate had a relative importance of 0.50 and overlapped zero slightly. First-year survival probabilities were not correlated with the inbreeding coefficient (f); however, small sample sizes limited the power to detect inbreeding depression. Correlations between individual heterozygosity and inbreeding were weak, in line with published meta-analyses showing that HFCs tend to be weak. We found support for general rather than local heterozygosity effects on first-year survival probability, and g2 indicated that our markers had power to detect inbreeding. We emphasize the importance of assessing how environmental stressors can influence the magnitude and direction of HFCs and of considering how parental genetic diversity can affect fitness-related traits, which could play an important role in the evolution of mate choice.

Cross-validation and Peeling Strategies for Survival Bump Hunting using Recursive Peeling Methods

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J. Sunil

2015-01-01

We introduce a framework to build a survival/risk bump hunting model with a censored time-to-event response. Our Survival Bump Hunting (SBH) method is based on a recursive peeling procedure that uses a specific survival peeling criterion derived from non/semi-parametric statistics such as the hazards-ratio, the log-rank test or the Nelson--Aalen estimator. To optimize the tuning parameter of the model and validate it, we introduce an objective function based on survival or prediction-error statistics, such as the log-rank test and the concordance error rate. We also describe two alternative cross-validation techniques adapted to the joint task of decision-rule making by recursive peeling and survival estimation. Numerical analyses show the importance of replicated cross-validation and the differences between criteria and techniques in both low and high-dimensional settings. Although several non-parametric survival models exist, none addresses the problem of directly identifying local extrema. We show how SBH efficiently estimates extreme survival/risk subgroups unlike other models. This provides an insight into the behavior of commonly used models and suggests alternatives to be adopted in practice. Finally, our SBH framework was applied to a clinical dataset. In it, we identified subsets of patients characterized by clinical and demographic covariates with a distinct extreme survival outcome, for which tailored medical interventions could be made. An R package PRIMsrc (Patient Rule Induction Method in Survival, Regression and Classification settings) is available on CRAN (Comprehensive R Archive Network) and GitHub. PMID:27034730

Unbiased survival estimates and evidence for skipped breeding opportunities in females

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, Rick D.; Lambert, Brad A.

2010-01-01

5. Establishing the occurrence of temporary emigration not only reduces bias in estimates of survival probabilities but also provides information about expected breeding attempts by females, a critical element in understanding the ecology of an organism and the impacts of outside stressors and conservation actions.

Demographic rates of Golden-cheeked Warblers in an urbanizing woodland preserve

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Reidy; Frank R. Thompson; Grant M. Connette; Lisa O' Donnell

2018-01-01

Knowledge of demographics is important in conservation planning for endangered species. We monitored the endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) at a large, discontinuous preserve in an urbanizing landscape in central Texas, USA, to estimate survival and productivity. We estimated adult male survival using a spatial Cormack-Jolly-...

[Estimation of survival rates: technics used (author's transl)].

PubMed

Rodary, C; Laplanche, A; Comnougue, C; Flamant, R

1979-01-01

The direct method and life-table methods (actuarial and Kaplan-Meier) for estimating survival rates are described here. The difference between direct method and lifetable method is the use of information about the patients who are still alive. Practical examples of calculation are given with recommandations for graphical displays.

Effect of oxygen on survival of faecal pollution indicators in drinking water.

PubMed

Roslev, P; Bjergbaek, L A; Hesselsoe, M

2004-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of oxygen on the survival of faecal pollution indicators including Escherichia coli in nondisinfected drinking water. Aerobic and anaerobic drinking water microcosms were inoculated with E. coli ATCC 25922 or raw sewage. Survival of E. coli was monitored by membrane filtration combined with cultivation on standard media, and by in situ hybridization with 16S rRNA-targeted fluorescent oligonucleotide probes. Anaerobic conditions significantly increased the survival of E. coli in drinking water compared with aerobic conditions. Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 showed a biphasic decrease in survival under aerobic conditions with an initial first-order decay rate of -0.11 day(-1) followed by a more rapid rate of -0.35 day(-1). In contrast, the first-order decay rate under anaerobic conditions was only -0.02 day(-1). After 35 days, <0.01% of the initial E. coli ATCC 25922 population remained detectable in aerobic microcosms compared with 48% in anaerobic microcosms. A poor survival was observed under aerobic conditions regardless of whether E. coli ATCC 25922 or sewage-derived E. coli was examined, and regardless of the detection method used (CFU or fluorescent in situ hybridization). Aerobic conditions in drinking water also appeared to decrease the survival of faecal enterococci, somatic coliphages and coliforms other than E. coli. The results indicate that oxygen is a major regulator of the survival of E. coli in nondisinfected drinking water. The results also suggest that faecal pollution indicators other than E. coli may persist longer in drinking water under anaerobic conditions. The effect of oxygen should be considered when evaluating the survival potential of enteric pathogens in oligotrophic environments.

First in line: Prioritizing receipt of Social Security disability benefits based on likelihood of death during adjudication

PubMed Central

Rasch, Elizabeth K.; Huynh, Minh; Ho, Pei-Shu; Heuser, Aaron; Houtenville, Andrew; Chan, Leighton

2014-01-01

Background: Given the complexity of the adjudication process and volume of applications to Social Security Administration’s (SSA) disability programs, many individuals with serious medical conditions die while awaiting an application decision. Limitations of traditional survival methods called for a new empirical approach to identify conditions resulting in rapid mortality. Objective: To identify health conditions associated with significantly higher mortality than a key reference group among applicants for SSA disability programs. Research design: We identified mortality patterns and generated a survival surface for a reference group using conditions already designated for expedited processing. We identified conditions associated with significantly higher mortality than the reference group and prioritized them by the expected likelihood of death during the adjudication process. Subjects: Administrative records of 29 million Social Security disability applicants, who applied for benefits from 1996 – 2007, were analyzed. Measures: We computed survival spells from time of onset of disability to death, and from date of application to death. Survival data were organized by entry cohort. Results: In our sample, we observed that approximately 42,000 applicants died before a decision was made on their disability claims. We identified 24 conditions with survival profiles comparable to the reference group. Applicants with these conditions were not likely to survive adjudication. Conclusions: Our approach facilitates ongoing revision of the conditions SSA designates for expedited awards and has applicability to other programs where survival profiles are a consideration. PMID:25310524

Nonparametric change point estimation for survival distributions with a partially constant hazard rate.

PubMed

Brazzale, Alessandra R; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Krügel, Stefanie; Schiergens, Tobias S; Trentzsch, Heiko; Hartl, Wolfgang

2018-04-05

We present a new method for estimating a change point in the hazard function of a survival distribution assuming a constant hazard rate after the change point and a decreasing hazard rate before the change point. Our method is based on fitting a stump regression to p values for testing hazard rates in small time intervals. We present three real data examples describing survival patterns of severely ill patients, whose excess mortality rates are known to persist far beyond hospital discharge. For designing survival studies in these patients and for the definition of hospital performance metrics (e.g. mortality), it is essential to define adequate and objective end points. The reliable estimation of a change point will help researchers to identify such end points. By precisely knowing this change point, clinicians can distinguish between the acute phase with high hazard (time elapsed after admission and before the change point was reached), and the chronic phase (time elapsed after the change point) in which hazard is fairly constant. We show in an extensive simulation study that maximum likelihood estimation is not robust in this setting, and we evaluate our new estimation strategy including bootstrap confidence intervals and finite sample bias correction.

Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, Thomas R.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Joanne Saher,; Theresa Childers,

2015-01-01

The Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geographically distinct subpopulations. Nest survival is known to be a primary driver of demography of Greater Sage-Grouse (C. urophasianus), but no unbiased estimates of daily nest survival rates (hereafter nest survival) exist for Gunnison Sage-Grouse or published studies identifying factors that influence nest survival. We estimated nest survival of Gunnison Sage-Grouse for the western portion of Colorado's Gunnison Basin subpopulation, and assessed the effects and relative importance of local- and landscape-scale habitat characteristics on nest survival. Our top performing model was one that allowed variation in nest survival among areas, suggesting a larger landscape-area effect. Overall nest success during a 38-day nesting period (egg-laying plus incubation) was 50% (daily survival rate; SE  =  0.982 [0.003]), which is higher than previous estimates for Gunnison Sage-Grouse and generally higher than published for the closely related Greater Sage-Grouse. We did not find strong evidence that local-scale habitat variables were better predictors of nest survival than landscape-scale predictors, nor did we find strong evidence that any of the habitat variables we measured were good predictors of nest survival. Nest success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in the western portion of the Gunnison Basin was higher than previously believed.

Modelling postfledging survival and age- specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: A case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modelled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-year-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-year-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-year maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected to be due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: a case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modeled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-yr-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-yr-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation in age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-yr maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Person centered prediction of survival in population based screening program by an intelligent clinical decision support system.

PubMed

Safdari, Reza; Maserat, Elham; Asadzadeh Aghdaei, Hamid; Javan Amoli, Amir Hossein; Mohaghegh Shalmani, Hamid

2017-01-01

To survey person centered survival rate in population based screening program by an intelligent clinical decision support system. Colorectal cancer is the most common malignancy and major cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Colorectal cancer is the sixth leading cause of cancer death in Iran. In this survey, we used cosine similarity as data mining technique and intelligent system for estimating survival of at risk groups in the screening plan. In the first step, we determined minimum data set (MDS). MDS was approved by experts and reviewing literatures. In the second step, MDS were coded by python language and matched with cosine similarity formula. Finally, survival rate by percent was illustrated in the user interface of national intelligent system. The national intelligent system was designed in PyCharm environment. Main data elements of intelligent system consist demographic information, age, referral type, risk group, recommendation and survival rate. Minimum data set related to survival comprise of clinical status, past medical history and socio-demographic information. Information of the covered population as a comprehensive database was connected to intelligent system and survival rate estimated for each patient. Mean range of survival of HNPCC patients and FAP patients were respectively 77.7% and 75.1%. Also, the mean range of the survival rate and other calculations have changed with the entry of new patients in the CRC registry by real-time. National intelligent system monitors the entire of risk group and reports survival rates by electronic guidelines and data mining technique and also operates according to the clinical process. This web base software has a critical role in the estimation survival rate in order to health care planning.

Longitudinal follow-up of adult survivors of Ewing sarcoma: A report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

PubMed

Marina, Neyssa M; Liu, Qi; Donaldson, Sarah S; Sklar, Charles A; Armstrong, Gregory T; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Leisenring, Wendy M; Ginsberg, Jill P; Henderson, Tara O; Neglia, Joseph P; Stovall, Marilyn A; Yasui, Yutaka; Randall, R Lor; Geller, David S; Robison, Leslie L; Ness, Kirsten K

2017-07-01

Ewing sarcoma survivors (ESSs) are at increased risk for treatment-related complications. The incidence of treatment-related morbidity and late mortality with aging is unknown. This study reports survival probabilities, estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality and chronic conditions among ESSs in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study who were treated between 1970 and 1986. Piecewise exponential models were used to estimate relative rates (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for these outcomes. Chronic conditions were graded with the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 4.03). Among 404 5-year ESSs (median age at last follow-up, 34.8 years; range, 9.1-54.8 years), the 35-year survival rate was 70% (95% CI, 66%-74%). Late recurrence (cumulative incidence at 35 years, 15.1%) was the most common cause of death, and it was followed by treatment-related causes (11.2%). There were 53 patients with subsequent neoplasms (SNs; cumulative incidence at 35 years, 24.0%), and 38 were malignant (14.3% at 35 years). The standardized incidence ratios were 377.1 (95% CI, 172.1-715.9) for osteosarcoma, 28.9 (95% CI, 3.2-104.2) for acute myeloid leukemia, 14.9 (95% CI, 7.9-25.5) for breast cancer, and 13.1 (95% CI, 4.8-28.5) for thyroid cancer. Rates of chronic conditions were highest for musculoskeletal (RR, 18.1; 95% CI, 12.8-25.7) and cardiac complications (RR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4-2.3). Thirty-five years after the diagnosis, the cumulative incidences of any chronic conditions and 2 or more chronic conditions were 84.6% (95% CI, 80.4%-88.8%) and 73.8% (95% CI, 67.8%-79.9%), respectively. With extended follow-up, ESSs' risk for late mortality and SNs does not plateau. Treatment-related chronic conditions develop years after therapy, and this supports the need for lifelong follow-up. Cancer 2017;123:2551-60. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stirling, I.; McDonald, T.L.; Richardson, E.S.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2011-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) population occur on the perimeter of the polar basin adjacent to the northwestern islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Sea ice converges on the islands through most of the year. We used open-population capture–recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns. The highest-ranking models suggested that survival of polar bears varied by age class and with changes in the sea ice habitat. Model-averaged estimates of survival (which include harvest mortality) for senescent adults ranged from 0.37 to 0.62, from 0.22 to 0.68 for cubs of the year (COY) and yearlings, and from 0.77 to 0.92 for 2–4 year-olds and adults. Horvtiz-Thompson (HT) estimates of population size were not significantly different among the decades of our study. The population size estimated for the 2000s was 980 ± 155 (mean and 95% CI). These estimates apply primarily to that segment of the NB population residing west and south of Banks Island. The NB polar bear population appears to have been stable or possibly increasing slightly during the period of our study. This suggests that ice conditions have remained suitable and similar for feeding in summer and fall during most years and that the traditional and legal Inuvialuit harvest has not exceeded sustainable levels. However, the amount of ice remaining in the study area at the end of summer, and the proportion that continues to lie over the biologically productive continental shelf (<300 m water depth) has declined over the 35-year period of this study. If the climate continues to warm as predicted, we predict that the polar bear population in the northern Beaufort Sea will eventually decline. Management and conservation practices for polar bears in relation to both aboriginal harvesting and offshore industrial activity will need to adapt.

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006.

PubMed

Stirling, Ian; McDonald, Trent L; Richardson, E S; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steven C

2011-04-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) population occur on the perimeter of the polar basin adjacent to the northwestern islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Sea ice converges on the islands through most of the year. We used open-population capture-recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns. The highest-ranking models suggested that survival of polar bears varied by age class and with changes in the sea ice habitat. Model-averaged estimates of survival (which include harvest mortality) for senescent adults ranged from 0.37 to 0.62, from 0.22 to 0.68 for cubs of the year (COY) and yearlings, and from 0.77 to 0.92 for 2-4 year-olds and adults. Horvtiz-Thompson (HT) estimates of population size were not significantly different among the decades of our study. The population size estimated for the 2000s was 980 +/- 155 (mean and 95% CI). These estimates apply primarily to that segment of the NB population residing west and south of Banks Island. The NB polar bear population appears to have been stable or possibly increasing slightly during the period of our study. This suggests that ice conditions have remained suitable and similar for feeding in summer and fall during most years and that the traditional and legal Inuvialuit harvest has not exceeded sustainable levels. However, the amount of ice remaining in the study area at the end of summer, and the proportion that continues to lie over the biologically productive continental shelf (< 300 m water depth) has declined over the 35-year period of this study. If the climate continues to warm as predicted, we predict that the polar bear population in the northern Beaufort Sea will eventually decline. Management and conservation practices for polar bears in relation to both aboriginal harvesting and offshore industrial activity will need to adapt.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schreiber, Leslie A.; Hansen, Christopher P.; Rumble, Mark A.

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations across North America have been declining due to degradation and fragmentation of sagebrush habitat. As part of a study quantifying greater sage-grouse demographics prior to construction of a wind energy facility, we estimated apparent net nest productivity and survival rate of chicks associated with radio-equipped female sage-grouse in Carbon County, Wyoming, USA. We estimated apparent net nest productivity using a weighted mean of the average brood size and used a modified logistic-exposure method to estimate daily chick survival over a 70-day time period. Apparent nest productivity was 2.79 chicks per female (95% CI: 1.46–4.12) inmore » 2011, 2.00 chicks per female (95% CI: 1.00–3.00) in 2012, and 1.54 chick per female (95% CI: 0.62–2.46) in 2013. Chick survival to 70 days post-hatch was 19.10% (95% CI: 6.22–37.42%) in 2011, 4.20% (95% CI: 0.84–12.31%) in 2012, and 16.05% (95% CI: 7.67–27.22%) in 2013. These estimates were low, yet within the range of other published survival rates. Chick survival was primarily associated with year and chick age, with minor effects of average temperature between surveys and hatch date. The variability in chick survival rates across years of our study suggests annual weather patterns may have large impacts on chick survival. Thus, management actions that increase the availability of food and cover for chicks may be necessary, especially during years with drought and above-average spring temperatures.« less

Compliance Monitoring of Subyearling Chinook Salmon Smolt Survival and Passage at Bonneville Dam, Summer 2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skalski, J. R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Seaburg, Adam

2013-05-01

The purpose of this compliance study was to estimate dam passage survival of subyearling Chinook salmon at Bonneville Dam during summer 2012, as required by the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion. The study also estimated smolt passage survival from the forebay 2 km upstream of the dam to the tailrace 1 km below the dam, as well as forebay residence time, tailrace egress, and spill passage efficiency, as required in the 2008 Columbia Basin Fish Accords.

Condition, innate immunity and disease mortality of inbred crows

PubMed Central

Townsend, Andrea K.; Clark, Anne B.; McGowan, Kevin J.; Miller, Andrew D.; Buckles, Elizabeth L.

2010-01-01

Cooperatively breeding American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) suffer a severe disease-mediated survival cost from inbreeding, but the proximate mechanisms linking inbreeding to disease are unknown. Here, we examine indices of nestling body condition and innate immunocompetence in relationship to inbreeding and disease mortality. Using an estimate of microsatellite heterozygosity that predicts inbreeding in this population, we show that inbred crows were in relatively poor condition as nestlings, and that body condition index measured in the first 2–33 days after hatching, in addition to inbreeding index, predicted disease probability in the first 34 months of life. Inbred nestlings also mounted a weaker response along one axis of innate immunity: the proportion of bacteria killed in a microbiocidal assay increased as heterozygosity index increased. Relatively poor body condition and low innate immunocompetence are two mechanisms that might predispose inbred crows to ultimate disease mortality. A better understanding of condition-mediated inbreeding depression can guide efforts to minimize disease costs of inbreeding in small populations. PMID:20444716

Immortal time bias: a frequently unrecognized threat to validity in the evaluation of postoperative radiotherapy.

PubMed

Park, Henry S; Gross, Cary P; Makarov, Danil V; Yu, James B

2012-08-01

To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORT vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Immortal Time Bias: A Frequently Unrecognized Threat to Validity in the Evaluation of Postoperative Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Henry S.; Gross, Cary P.; Makarov, Danil V.

2012-08-01

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Methods and Materials: First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORTmore » vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Results: Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Conclusions: Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias.« less

Picturing survival memories: enhanced memory after fitness-relevant processing occurs for verbal and visual stimuli.

PubMed

Otgaar, Henry; Smeets, Tom; van Bergen, Saskia

2010-01-01

Recent studies have shown that processing words according to a survival scenario leads to superior retention relative to control conditions. Here, we examined whether a survival recall advantage could be elicited by using pictures. Furthermore, in Experiment 1, we were interested in whether survival processing also results in improved memory for details. Undergraduates rated the relevance of pictures in a survival, moving, or pleasantness scenario and were subsequently given a surprise free recall test. We found that survival processing yielded superior retention. We also found that distortions occurred more often in the survival condition than in the pleasantness condition. In Experiment 2, we directly compared the survival recall effect between pictures and words. A comparable survival recall advantage was found for pictures and words. The present findings support the idea that memory is enhanced by processing information in terms of fitness value, yet at the same time, the present results suggest that this may increase the risk for memory distortions.

Hidden Markov model for dependent mark loss and survival estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laake, Jeffrey L.; Johnson, Devin S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Ternent, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators assume no loss of marks to provide unbiased estimates of population parameters. We describe a hidden Markov model (HMM) framework that integrates a mark loss model with a Cormack–Jolly–Seber model for survival estimation. Mark loss can be estimated with single-marked animals as long as a sub-sample of animals has a permanent mark. Double-marking provides an estimate of mark loss assuming independence but dependence can be modeled with a permanently marked sub-sample. We use a log-linear approach to include covariates for mark loss and dependence which is more flexible than existing published methods for integrated models. The HMM approach is demonstrated with a dataset of black bears (Ursus americanus) with two ear tags and a subset of which were permanently marked with tattoos. The data were analyzed with and without the tattoo. Dropping the tattoos resulted in estimates of survival that were reduced by 0.005–0.035 due to tag loss dependence that could not be modeled. We also analyzed the data with and without the tattoo using a single tag. By not using.

Neckband retention for lesser snow geese in the western Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, M.D.; Goldberg, Diana R.; Smith, A.E.; Baranyuk, W.; Cooch, E.G.

2001-01-01

Neckbands are commonly used in waterfowl studies (especially geese) to identify individuals for determination of movement and behavior and to estimate population parameters. Substantial neckband loss can adversely affect these research objectives and produce biased survival estimates. We used capture, recovery, and observation histories for lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) banded in the western Arctic, 1993-1996, to estimate neckband retention. We found that neckband retention differed between snow goose breeding colonies at Wrangel Island, Russia, and Banks Island, Northwest Territories, Canada. Male snow geese had higher neckband loss than females, a pattern similar to that found for Canada geese (Branta canadensis) and lesser snow geese in Alaska. We found that the rate of neckband loss increased with time, suggesting that neckbands are lost as the plastic deteriorates. Survival estimates for geese based on resighting neckbands will be biased unless estimates are corrected for neckband loss. We recommend that neckband loss be estimated using survival estimators that incorporate recaptures, recoveries, and observations of marked birds. Research and management studies using neckbands should be designed to improve neckband retention and to include the assessment of neckband retention.

Validation of the Social Security Administration Life Tables (2004-2014) in Localized Prostate Cancer Patients within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database.

PubMed

Preisser, Felix; Bandini, Marco; Mazzone, Elio; Nazzani, Sebastiano; Marchioni, Michele; Tian, Zhe; Saad, Fred; Pompe, Raisa S; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Heinzer, Hans; Montorsi, Francesco; Huland, Hartwig; Graefen, Markus; Tilki, Derya; Karakiewicz, Pierre I

2018-05-22

Accurate life expectancy estimation is crucial in clinical decision-making including management and treatment of clinically localized prostate cancer (PCa). We hypothesized that Social Security Administration (SSA) life tables' derived survival estimates closely follow observed survival of PCa patients. To test this relationship, we examined 10-yr overall survival rates in patients with clinically localized PCa and compared it with survival estimates derived from the SSA life tables. Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004), we identified patients aged >50-<90yr. Follow-up was at least 10 yr for patients who did not die of disease or other causes. Monte Carlo method was used to define individual survival in years, according to the SSA life tables (2004-2014). Subsequently, SSA life tables' predicted survival was compared with observed survival rates in Kaplan-Meier analyses. Subgroup analyses were stratified according to treatment type and D'Amico risk classification. Overall, 39191 patients with localized PCa were identified. At 10-yr follow-up, the SSA life tables' predicted survival was 69.5% versus 73.1% according to the observed rate (p<0.0001). The largest differences between estimated versus observed survival rates were recorded for D'Amico low-risk PCa (8.0%), brachytherapy (9.1%), and radical prostatectomy (8.6%) patients. Conversely, the smallest differences were recorded for external beam radiotherapy (1.7%) and unknown treatment type (1.6%) patients. Overall, SSA life tables' predicted life expectancy closely approximate observed overall survival rates. However, SSA life tables' predicted rates underestimate by as much as 9.1% the survival in brachytherapy patients, as well as in D'Amico low-risk and radical prostatectomy patients. In these patient categories, an adjustment for the degree of underestimation might be required when counseling is provided in clinical practice. Social Security Administration (SSA) life tables' predicted life expectancy closely approximate observed overall survival rates. However, SSA life tables' predicted rates underestimate by as much as 9.1% the survival in brachytherapy patients, as well as in D'Amico low-risk and radical prostatectomy patients. Copyright © 2018 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blaise Collin

The Idaho National Laboraroty (INL) PARFUME (particle fuel model) code was used to assess the overall fuel performance of uranium nitride (UN) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) ceramic fuel under irradiation conditions typical of a Light Water Reactor (LWR). The dimensional changes of the fuel particle layers and kernel were calculated, including the formation of an internal gap. The survivability of the UN TRISO particle was estimated depending on the strain behavior of the constituent materials at high fast fluence and burn up. For nominal cases, internal gas pressure and representative thermal profiles across the kernel and layers were determined along withmore » stress levels in the inner and outer pyrolytic carbon (IPyC/OPyC) and silicon carbide (SiC) layers. These parameters were then used to evaluate fuel particle failure probabilities. Results of the study show that the survivability of UN TRISO fuel under LWR irradiation conditions might only be guaranteed if the kernel and PyC swelling rates are limited at high fast fluence and burn up. These material properties have large uncertainties at the irradiation levels expected to be reached by UN TRISO fuel in LWRs. Therefore, a large experimental effort would be needed to establish material properties, including kernel and PyC swelling rates, under these conditions before definitive conclusions can be drawn on the behavior of UN TRISO fuel in LWRs.« less

Survival of adult martens in Northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Nicholas P. McCann; Patrick A. Zollner; Jonathan H. Gilbert

2010-01-01

Low adult marten (Martes americana) survival may be one factor limiting their population growth >30 yr after their reintroduction in Wisconsin, USA. We estimated annual adult marten survival at 0.81 in northern Wisconsin, with lower survival during winter (0.87) than summer-fall (1.00). Fisher (Martes pennanti) and raptor kills...

Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

PubMed

Law, Bradley S; Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R

2018-01-01

Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by timber harvesting, suggesting ecologically sustainable harvesting may be compatible with climate refugia.

Local linear estimation of concordance probability with application to covariate effects models on association for bivariate failure-time data.

PubMed

Ding, Aidong Adam; Hsieh, Jin-Jian; Wang, Weijing

2015-01-01

Bivariate survival analysis has wide applications. In the presence of covariates, most literature focuses on studying their effects on the marginal distributions. However covariates can also affect the association between the two variables. In this article we consider the latter issue by proposing a nonstandard local linear estimator for the concordance probability as a function of covariates. Under the Clayton copula, the conditional concordance probability has a simple one-to-one correspondence with the copula parameter for different data structures including those subject to independent or dependent censoring and dependent truncation. The proposed method can be used to study how covariates affect the Clayton association parameter without specifying marginal regression models. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived and their finite-sample performances are examined via simulations. Finally, for illustration, we apply the proposed method to analyze a bone marrow transplant data set.

A body composition model to estimate mammalian energy stores and metabolic rates from body mass and body length, with application to polar bears.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Klanjscek, Tin; Derocher, Andrew E; Obbard, Martyn E; Lewis, Mark A

2009-08-01

Many species experience large fluctuations in food availability and depend on energy from fat and protein stores for survival, reproduction and growth. Body condition and, more specifically, energy stores thus constitute key variables in the life history of many species. Several indices exist to quantify body condition but none can provide the amount of stored energy. To estimate energy stores in mammals, we propose a body composition model that differentiates between structure and storage of an animal. We develop and parameterize the model specifically for polar bears (Ursus maritimus Phipps) but all concepts are general and the model could be easily adapted to other mammals. The model provides predictive equations to estimate structural mass, storage mass and storage energy from an appropriately chosen measure of body length and total body mass. The model also provides a means to estimate basal metabolic rates from body length and consecutive measurements of total body mass. Model estimates of body composition, structural mass, storage mass and energy density of 970 polar bears from Hudson Bay were consistent with the life history and physiology of polar bears. Metabolic rate estimates of fasting adult males derived from the body composition model corresponded closely to theoretically expected and experimentally measured metabolic rates. Our method is simple, non-invasive and provides considerably more information on the energetic status of individuals than currently available methods.

Population-based cancer survival in the United States: Data, quality control, and statistical methods.

PubMed

Allemani, Claudia; Harewood, Rhea; Johnson, Christopher J; Carreira, Helena; Spika, Devon; Bonaventure, Audrey; Ward, Kevin; Weir, Hannah K; Coleman, Michel P

2017-12-15

Robust comparisons of population-based cancer survival estimates require tight adherence to the study protocol, standardized quality control, appropriate life tables of background mortality, and centralized analysis. The CONCORD program established worldwide surveillance of population-based cancer survival in 2015, analyzing individual data on 26 million patients (including 10 million US patients) diagnosed between 1995 and 2009 with 1 of 10 common malignancies. In this Cancer supplement, we analyzed data from 37 state cancer registries that participated in the second cycle of the CONCORD program (CONCORD-2), covering approximately 80% of the US population. Data quality checks were performed in 3 consecutive phases: protocol adherence, exclusions, and editorial checks. One-, 3-, and 5-year age-standardized net survival was estimated using the Pohar Perme estimator and state- and race-specific life tables of all-cause mortality for each year. The cohort approach was adopted for patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2003, and the complete approach for patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2009. Articles in this supplement report population coverage, data quality indicators, and age-standardized 5-year net survival by state, race, and stage at diagnosis. Examples of tables, bar charts, and funnel plots are provided in this article. Population-based cancer survival is a key measure of the overall effectiveness of services in providing equitable health care. The high quality of US cancer registry data, 80% population coverage, and use of an unbiased net survival estimator ensure that the survival trends reported in this supplement are robustly comparable by race and state. The results can be used by policymakers to identify and address inequities in cancer survival in each state and for the United States nationally. Cancer 2017;123:4982-93. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Survival and selection of migrating salmon from capture-recapture models with individual traits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zabel, R.W.; Wagner, T.; Congleton, J.L.; Smith, S.G.; Williams, J.G.

2005-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are powerful tools for studying animal population dynamics, providing information on population abundance, survival rates, population growth rates, and selection for phenotypic traits. In these studies, the probability of observing a tagged individual reflects both the probability of the individual surviving to the time of recapture and the probability of recapturing an animal, given that it is alive. If both of these probabilities are related to the same phenotypic trait, it can be difficult to distinguish effects on survival probabilities from effects on recapture probabilities. However, when animals are individually tagged and have multiple opportunities for recapture, we can properly partition observed trait-related variability into survival and recapture components. We present an overview of capture-recapture models that incorporate individual variability and develop methods to incorporate results from these models into estimates of population survival and selection for phenotypic traits. We conducted a series of simulations to understand the performance of these estimators and to assess the consequences of ignoring individual variability when it exists. In addition, we analyzed a large data set of > 153 000 juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) of known length that were PIT-tagged during their seaward migration. Both our simulations and the case study indicated that the ability to precisely estimate selection for phenotypic traits was greatly compromised when differential recapture probabilities were ignored. Estimates of population survival, however, were far more robust. In the chinook salmon and steelhead study, we consistently found that smaller fish had a greater probability of recapture. We also uncovered length-related survival relationships in over half of the release group/river segment combinations that we observed, but we found both positive and negative relationships between length and survival probability. These results have important implications for the management of salmonid populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Can metamorphosis survival during larval development in spiny lobster Sagmariasus verreauxi be improved through quantitative genetic inheritance?

PubMed

Nguyen, Nguyen H; Fitzgibbon, Quinn P; Quinn, Jane; Smith, Greg; Battaglene, Stephen; Knibb, Wayne

2018-05-04

One of the major impediments to spiny lobster aquaculture is the high cost of hatchery production due to the long and complex larval cycle and poor survival during the many moult stages, especially at metamorphosis. We examined if the key trait of larval survival can be improved through selection by determining if genetic variance exists for this trait. Specifically, we report, for the first time, genetic parameters (heritability and correlations) for early survival rates recorded at five larval phases; early-phyllosoma stages (instars 1-6; S1), mid-phyllosoma stages (instars; 7-12; S2), late-phyllosoma stages (instars 13-17; S3), metamorphosis (S4) and puerulus stage (S5) in hatchery-reared spiny lobster Sagmariasus verreauxi. The data were collected from a total of 235,060 larvae produced from 18 sires and 30 dams over nine years (2006 to 2014). Parentage of the offspring and full-sib families was verified using ten microsatellite markers. Analysis of variance components showed that the estimates of heritability for all the five phases of larval survival obtained from linear mixed model were generally similar to those obtained from threshold logistic generalised models (0.03-0.47 vs. 0.01-0.50). The heritability estimates for survival traits recorded in the early larval phases (S1 and S2) were higher than those estimated in later phases (S3, S4 and S5). The existence of the additive genetic component in larval survival traits indicate that they could be improved through selection. Both phenotypic and genetic correlations among the five survival measures studied were moderate to high and positive. The genetic associations between successive rearing periods were stronger than those that are further apart. Our estimates of heritability and genetic correlations reported here in a spiny lobster species indicate that improvement in the early survival especially during metamorphosis can be achieved through genetic selection in this highly economic value species.

Temporal Discontiguity Is neither Necessary nor Sufficient for Learning-Induced Effects on Adult Neurogenesis

PubMed Central

Leuner, Benedetta; Waddell, Jaylyn; Gould, Elizabeth; Shors, Tracey J.

2012-01-01

Some, but not all, types of learning and memory can influence neurogenesis in the adult hippocampus. Trace eyeblink conditioning has been shown to enhance the survival of new neurons, whereas delay eyeblink conditioning has no such effect. The key difference between the two training procedures is that the conditioning stimuli are separated in time during trace but not delay conditioning. These findings raise the question of whether temporal discontiguity is necessary for enhancing the survival of new neurons. Here we used two approaches to test this hypothesis. First, we examined the influence of a delay conditioning task in which the duration of the conditioned stimulus (CS) was increased nearly twofold, a procedure that critically engages the hippocampus. Although the CS and unconditioned stimulus are contiguous, this very long delay conditioning procedure increased the number of new neurons that survived. Second, we examined the influence of learning the trace conditioned response (CR) after having acquired the CR during delay conditioning, a procedure that renders trace conditioning hippocampal-independent. In this case, trace conditioning did not enhance the survival of new neurons. Together, these results demonstrate that associative learning increases the survival of new neurons in the adult hippocampus, regardless of temporal contiguity. PMID:17192426

Hydration measured by doubly labeled water in ALS and its effects on survival.

PubMed

Scagnelli, Connor N; Howard, Diantha B; Bromberg, Mark B; Kasarskis, Edward J; Matthews, Dwight E; Mitsumoto, Hiroshi M; Simmons, Zachary; Tandan, Rup

2018-05-01

We present a study of hydration in ALS patients and its effects on survival. This was a multicenter study over 48 weeks in 80 ALS patients who underwent 250 individual measurements using doubly labeled water (DLW). Total body water (TBW) and water turnover (a surrogate for water intake) were 3.4% and 8.6% lower, respectively, in patients compared to age- and gender-matched healthy controls, and both significantly decreased over study duration. In 20% of patients, water turnover measured over 10 d was 2 standard deviations below the mean value in healthy controls. In a separate clinic cohort of 208 patients, water intake estimated from a de novo equation created from common clinical endpoints was a prognostic indicator of survival. Regardless of nutritional state assessed by BMI, survival was two-fold longer in the group above the median for estimated water intake, suggesting that hydration may be a more important predictor of survival than malnutrition. Risk factors for poor hydration were identified. Water intake equations recommended by US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in healthy elderly were inaccurate for use in ALS patients. We developed equations to estimate TBW and water intake in ALS patients for use in clinics to accurately estimate hydration and improve clinical care.

Development of a study design and implementation plan to estimate juvenile salmon survival in Lookout Point Reservoir and other reservoirs of the Willamette Project, western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kock, Tobias J.; Perry, Russell W.; Monzyk, Fred R.; Pope, Adam C.; Plumb, John M.

2016-12-23

Survival estimates for juvenile salmon and steelhead fry in reservoirs impounded by high head dams are coveted data by resource managers.  However, this information is difficult to obtain because these fish are too small for tagging using conventional methods such as passive-integrated transponders or radio or acoustic transmitters.  We developed a study design and implementation plan to conduct a pilot evaluation that would assess the performance of two models for estimating fry survival in a field setting.  The first model is a staggered-release recovery model that was described by Skalski and others (2009) and Skalski (2016).  The second model is a parentage-based tagging N-mixture model that was developed and described in this document.  Both models are conceptually and statistically sound, but neither has been evaluated in the field.  In this document we provide an overview of a proposed study for 2017 in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon, that will evaluate survival of Chinook salmon fry using both models.  This approach will allow us to test each model and compare survival estimates, to determine model performance and better understand these study designs using field-collected data.

Genomic evidence for large, long-lived ancestors to placental mammals.

PubMed

Romiguier, J; Ranwez, V; Douzery, E J P; Galtier, N

2013-01-01

It is widely assumed that our mammalian ancestors, which lived in the Cretaceous era, were tiny animals that survived massive asteroid impacts in shelters and evolved into modern forms after dinosaurs went extinct, 65 Ma. The small size of most Mesozoic mammalian fossils essentially supports this view. Paleontology, however, is not conclusive regarding the ancestry of extant mammals, because Cretaceous and Paleocene fossils are not easily linked to modern lineages. Here, we use full-genome data to estimate the longevity and body mass of early placental mammals. Analyzing 36 fully sequenced mammalian genomes, we reconstruct two aspects of the ancestral genome dynamics, namely GC-content evolution and nonsynonymous over synonymous rate ratio. Linking these molecular evolutionary processes to life-history traits in modern species, we estimate that early placental mammals had a life span above 25 years and a body mass above 1 kg. This is similar to current primates, cetartiodactyls, or carnivores, but markedly different from mice or shrews, challenging the dominant view about mammalian origin and evolution. Our results imply that long-lived mammals existed in the Cretaceous era and were the most successful in evolution, opening new perspectives about the conditions for survival to the Cretaceous-Tertiary crisis.

Factors affecting breeding season survival of Red-Headed Woodpeckers in South Carolina.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilgo, John, C.; Vukovich, Mark

2011-11-18

Red-headed woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus) populations have declined in the United States and Canada over the past 40 years. However, few demographic studies have been published on the species and none have addressed adult survival. During 2006-2007, we estimated survival probabilities of 80 radio-tagged red-headed woodpeckers during the breeding season in mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) forests in South Carolina. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to estimate survival within and between years and to evaluate the effects of foliar cover (number of available cover patches), snag density treatment (high density vs. low density), and sex and age of woodpeckers.more » Weekly survival probabilities followed a quadratic time trend, being lowest during mid-summer, which coincided with the late nestling and fledgling period. Avian predation, particularly by Cooper's (Accipiter cooperii) and sharp-shinned hawks (A. striatus), accounted for 85% of all mortalities. Our best-supported model estimated an 18-week breeding season survival probability of 0.72 (95% CI = 0.54-0.85) and indicated that the number of cover patches interacted with sex of woodpeckers to affect survival; females with few available cover patches had a lower probability of survival than either males or females with more cover patches. At the median number of cover patches available (n = 6), breeding season survival of females was 0.82 (95% CI = 0.54-0.94) and of males was 0.60 (95% CI = 0.42-0.76). The number of cover patches available to woodpeckers appeared in all 3 of our top models predicting weekly survival, providing further evidence that woodpecker survival was positively associated with availability of cover. Woodpecker survival was not associated with snag density. Our results suggest that protection of {ge}0.7 cover patches per ha during vegetation control activities in mature pine forests will benefit survival of this Partners In Flight Watch List species.« less

Acylcarnitines profile best predicts survival in horses with atypical myopathy

PubMed Central

Detilleux, Johann; Cello, Christophe; Amory, Hélène; Marcillaud-Pitel, Christel; Richard, Eric; van Galen, Gaby; van Loon, Gunther; Lefère, Laurence; Votion, Dominique-Marie

2017-01-01

Equine atypical myopathy (AM) is caused by hypoglycin A intoxication and is characterized by a high fatality rate. Predictive estimation of survival in AM horses is necessary to prevent unnecessary suffering of animals that are unlikely to survive and to focus supportive therapy on horses with a possible favourable prognosis of survival. We hypothesized that outcome may be predicted early in the course of disease based on the assumption that the acylcarnitine profile reflects the derangement of muscle energetics. We developed a statistical model to prognosticate the risk of death of diseased animals and found that estimation of outcome may be drawn from three acylcarnitines (C2, C10:2 and C18 -carnitines) with a high sensitivity and specificity. The calculation of the prognosis of survival makes it possible to distinguish the horses that will survive from those that will die despite severe signs of acute rhabdomyolysis in both groups. PMID:28846683

Survival time estimation using Injury Severity Score (ISS) in homicide cases.

PubMed

Cros, Jérôme; Alvarez, Jean-Claude; Sbidian, Emilie; Charlier, Philippe; de la Grandmaison, Geoffroy Lorin

2013-12-10

The aim of our study was to assess the value of ISS to estimate survival time in a retrospective study of all homicidal deaths in the Western suburbs of Paris between 1994 and 2008. Stab wounds were the most common cause of death. Survival time between assault and death, determined in 107 cases out of 511 homicide cases, ranged from 0 min to 25 days (mean 39 h). There was an overall significant association between the survival time and the ISS score. ISS and survival time were strongly associated with male victims and a clear trend was seen with women. Regarding the type of wounds, a trend was seen with gunshot wounds and blunt injuries, but not with stab wounds. There was no influence of blood toxicological results and resuscitation attempts. Overall, ISS was a good predictor of a survival under 30 min. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A New Harmonized Approach to Estimate Busulfan Exposure Predicts Survival and Toxicity after Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Children and Young Adults: a Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Bartelink, I.H.; Lalmohamed, Arief; van Reij, Elisabeth M.L.; Dvorak, Chris C.; Savic, Rada M.; Zwaveling, Juliette; Bredius, Robbert. G.M.; Egberts, Antoine C.G.; Bierings, M.; Kletzel, M.; Shaw, Peter J.; Nath, Christa E.; Hempel, George; Ansari, M.; Krajinovic, M.; Theoret, Yves; Duval, Michel; Keizer, Ron J.; Bittencourt, Henriette; Hassan, Moustapha; Güngör, Tayfun; Wynn, Robert F.; Veys, Paul; Cuvelier, Geoff D.E.; Marktel, Sarah; Chiesa, Robert; Cowan, Morton J.; Slatter, Mary A.; Stricherz, Melisa K.; Jennissen, Cathryn; Long-Boyle, Janel R.; Boelens, Jaap Jan

2016-01-01

Background Intravenous-busulfan (IV-busulfan) combined with therapeutic drug monitoring to guide dosing improves outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT). The best method to estimate busulfan exposure and the optimal exposure in children/young adults remains unclear. We therefore evaluated three approaches to estimate IV-Bu exposure (expressed as cumulative-area-under-the-curve; AUC) and associated busulfan-AUC with clinical outcomes in children/young adults undergoing allo-HCT. Methods In this retrospective analysis, patients (0.1–30.4 years) receiving busulfan-based conditioning regimen from 15 centers were included. Cumulative AUC was calculated by numerical integration using non-linear mixed effect modeling (AUCNONMEM), non-compartmental analysis (AUC0-infinity and AUC to the end of the dose interval AUC0-tau) and by individual centers using a variety of approaches (AUCcenter). Main outcome of interest was event-free survival (EFS). Other outcomes of interest were overall survival, graft-failure, relapse, transplantation related mortality (TRM), acute toxicity (veno-occlusive disease (VOD) and/or acute graft versus-host disease (aGvHD), chronic GvHD (cGvHD) and cGVHD-free event-free survival (GEFS). Propensity score adjusted cox proportional hazard models, Weibull models, and Fine-Gray competing risk regressions were used. Results 674 patients were included (41% malignant, 59% non-malignant) Estimated 2-year EFS was 69.7%. The median busulfan AUCNONMEM was 74.4 mg*h/L (CI95% 31.1–104.6 mg*h/L). The median AUCNONMEM correlated poorly with AUCcenter (R2 = 0.254). Patients with optimal IV-busulfan AUC of 78–101 mg*h/L showed 81% EFS at 2 years compared to 66.1% and 49.5% in the low (<78 mg*h/L) and high (>101 mg*h/L) busulfan AUC group respectively (P=0.011). Graft-failure/relapse occurred more frequently in the low AUC group (HR=1.75 P<0.001). Acute toxicity, cGvHD and TRM was significantly higher in the high AUC group (HR 1.69, 2.99 and 1.30), independent of indication. Interpretation These results demonstrate that improved clinical outcomes may be achieved by targeting the busulfan-AUC to 78–101 mg*h/L using a new validated pharmacokinetic-model for all indications. PMID:27746112

Camera trapping estimates of density and survival of fishers (Martes pennanti)

Treesearch

Mark J. Jordan; Reginald H. Barrett; Kathryn L. Purcell

2011-01-01

Developing efficient monitoring strategies for species of conservation concern is critical to ensuring their persistence. We have developed a method using camera traps to estimate density and survival in mesocarnivores and tested it on a population of fishers Martes pennanti in an area of approximately 300 km2 of the southern...

Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

PubMed

Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

2010-10-01

Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ploskey, Gene R.; Faber, Derrek M.; Weiland, Mark A.

The purpose of this study was to estimate the survival for yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts during spring 2010 in a portion of the Columbia River that includes Bonneville Dam. The study estimated smolt survival from a virtual release at Bonneville Dam to a survival array 81 km downstream of Bonneville Dam. We also estimated median forebay residence time, median tailrace egress time, and spill passage efficiency (SPE), as required in the Columbia Basin Fish Accords. A single release design was used to estimate survival from Bonneville Dam to a primary array located 81 km downstream of Bonneville. Themore » approach did not include a reference tailrace release. Releases of acoustic-tagged smolts above John Day Dam to Hood River contributed to the formation of virtual releases at a Bonneville Dam forebay entrance array and at the face of the dam. A total of 3,880 yearling Chinook salmon and 3,885 steelhead smolts were tagged and released in the investigation. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) tag model number ATS-156dB, weighing 0.438 g in air, was used in this investigation.« less

Cost-effectiveness of rehabilitation after an acute coronary event: a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Briffa, Tom G; Eckermann, Simon D; Griffiths, Alison D; Harris, Phillip J; Heath, M Rose; Freedman, Saul B; Donaldson, Lana T; Briffa, N Kathryn; Keech, Anthony C

2005-11-07

To estimate the incremental effects on cost and quality of life of cardiac rehabilitation after an acute coronary syndrome. Open randomised controlled trial with 1 year's follow-up. Analysis was on an intention-to-treat basis. Two tertiary hospitals in Sydney. 18 sessions of comprehensive exercise-based outpatient cardiac rehabilitation or conventional care as provided by the treating doctor. 113 patients aged 41-75 years who were self-caring and literate in English. Patients with uncompensated heart failure, uncontrolled arrhythmias, severe and symptomatic aortic stenosis or physical impairment were excluded. Costs (hospitalisations, medication use, outpatient visits, investigations, and personal expenses); and measures of quality of life. Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved at 1 year (this estimate combines within-study utility effects with reported 1-year risk of survival and treatment effects of rehabilitation on mortality). Sensitivity analyses around a base case estimate included alternative assumptions of no treatment effect on survival, 3 years of treatment effect on survival and variations in utility. The estimated incremental cost per QALY saved for rehabilitation relative to standard care was 42,535 US dollars when modelling included the reported treatment effect on survival. This increased to 70,580 US dollars per QALY saved if treatment effect on survival was not included. The results were sensitive to variations in utility and ranged from 19,685 US dollars per QALY saved to rehabilitation not being cost-effective. The effects on quality of life tend to reinforce treatment advantages on survival for patients having postdischarge rehabilitation after an acute coronary syndrome. The estimated base case incremental cost per QALY saved is consistent with those historically accepted by decision making authorities such as the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee.

Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blomberg, Erik J.; Sedinger, James S.; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits to survival during postfledging, due to carryover effects between the two life phases.

Estimating tag loss of the Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, using a multi-state model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butler, Catherine Alyssa; McGowan, Conor P.; Grand, James B.; Smith, David

2012-01-01

The Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is a valuable resource along the Mid-Atlantic coast which has, in recent years, experienced new management paradigms due to increased concern about this species role in the environment. While current management actions are underway, many acknowledge the need for improved and updated parameter estimates to reduce the uncertainty within the management models. Specifically, updated and improved estimates of demographic parameters such as adult crab survival in the regional population of interest, Delaware Bay, could greatly enhance these models and improve management decisions. There is however, some concern that difficulties in tag resighting or complete loss of tags could be occurring. As apparent from the assumptions of a Jolly-Seber model, loss of tags can result in a biased estimate and underestimate a survival rate. Given that uncertainty, as a first step towards estimating an unbiased estimate of adult survival, we first took steps to estimate the rate of tag loss. Using data from a double tag mark-resight study conducted in Delaware Bay and Program MARK, we designed a multi-state model to allow for the estimation of mortality of each tag separately and simultaneously.

Modeling Stochastic Variability in the Numbers of Surviving Salmonella enterica, Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and Listeria monocytogenes Cells at the Single-Cell Level in a Desiccated Environment

PubMed Central

Koyama, Kento; Hokunan, Hidekazu; Hasegawa, Mayumi; Kawamura, Shuso

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Despite effective inactivation procedures, small numbers of bacterial cells may still remain in food samples. The risk that bacteria will survive these procedures has not been estimated precisely because deterministic models cannot be used to describe the uncertain behavior of bacterial populations. We used the Poisson distribution as a representative probability distribution to estimate the variability in bacterial numbers during the inactivation process. Strains of four serotypes of Salmonella enterica, three serotypes of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and one serotype of Listeria monocytogenes were evaluated for survival. We prepared bacterial cell numbers following a Poisson distribution (indicated by the parameter λ, which was equal to 2) and plated the cells in 96-well microplates, which were stored in a desiccated environment at 10% to 20% relative humidity and at 5, 15, and 25°C. The survival or death of the bacterial cells in each well was confirmed by adding tryptic soy broth as an enrichment culture. Changes in the Poisson distribution parameter during the inactivation process, which represent the variability in the numbers of surviving bacteria, were described by nonlinear regression with an exponential function based on a Weibull distribution. We also examined random changes in the number of surviving bacteria using a random number generator and computer simulations to determine whether the number of surviving bacteria followed a Poisson distribution during the bacterial death process by use of the Poisson process. For small initial cell numbers, more than 80% of the simulated distributions (λ = 2 or 10) followed a Poisson distribution. The results demonstrate that variability in the number of surviving bacteria can be described as a Poisson distribution by use of the model developed by use of the Poisson process. IMPORTANCE We developed a model to enable the quantitative assessment of bacterial survivors of inactivation procedures because the presence of even one bacterium can cause foodborne disease. The results demonstrate that the variability in the numbers of surviving bacteria was described as a Poisson distribution by use of the model developed by use of the Poisson process. Description of the number of surviving bacteria as a probability distribution rather than as the point estimates used in a deterministic approach can provide a more realistic estimation of risk. The probability model should be useful for estimating the quantitative risk of bacterial survival during inactivation. PMID:27940547

Modeling Stochastic Variability in the Numbers of Surviving Salmonella enterica, Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and Listeria monocytogenes Cells at the Single-Cell Level in a Desiccated Environment.

PubMed

Koyama, Kento; Hokunan, Hidekazu; Hasegawa, Mayumi; Kawamura, Shuso; Koseki, Shigenobu

2017-02-15

Despite effective inactivation procedures, small numbers of bacterial cells may still remain in food samples. The risk that bacteria will survive these procedures has not been estimated precisely because deterministic models cannot be used to describe the uncertain behavior of bacterial populations. We used the Poisson distribution as a representative probability distribution to estimate the variability in bacterial numbers during the inactivation process. Strains of four serotypes of Salmonella enterica, three serotypes of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and one serotype of Listeria monocytogenes were evaluated for survival. We prepared bacterial cell numbers following a Poisson distribution (indicated by the parameter λ, which was equal to 2) and plated the cells in 96-well microplates, which were stored in a desiccated environment at 10% to 20% relative humidity and at 5, 15, and 25°C. The survival or death of the bacterial cells in each well was confirmed by adding tryptic soy broth as an enrichment culture. Changes in the Poisson distribution parameter during the inactivation process, which represent the variability in the numbers of surviving bacteria, were described by nonlinear regression with an exponential function based on a Weibull distribution. We also examined random changes in the number of surviving bacteria using a random number generator and computer simulations to determine whether the number of surviving bacteria followed a Poisson distribution during the bacterial death process by use of the Poisson process. For small initial cell numbers, more than 80% of the simulated distributions (λ = 2 or 10) followed a Poisson distribution. The results demonstrate that variability in the number of surviving bacteria can be described as a Poisson distribution by use of the model developed by use of the Poisson process. We developed a model to enable the quantitative assessment of bacterial survivors of inactivation procedures because the presence of even one bacterium can cause foodborne disease. The results demonstrate that the variability in the numbers of surviving bacteria was described as a Poisson distribution by use of the model developed by use of the Poisson process. Description of the number of surviving bacteria as a probability distribution rather than as the point estimates used in a deterministic approach can provide a more realistic estimation of risk. The probability model should be useful for estimating the quantitative risk of bacterial survival during inactivation. Copyright © 2017 Koyama et al.

Cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer: an estimate using the Population Health Model lung cancer module.

PubMed

Evans, W K

1997-04-01

Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada) is in the process of developing the Population Health Model to simulate the health and common illnesses of Canadians. The Population Health Model incorporates a lung cancer module that is based on contemporary Canadian practice. This microsimulation model can be used to estimate the total direct care costs of treating all lung cancer cases diagnosed in Canada and to evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of new therapeutic interventions as they are introduced into practice. Gemcitabine, a new nucleoside analogue with a broad spectrum of antitumor activity, is about to be introduced on the Canadian market. The Population Health Model has been used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine in the management of lung cancer over a range of drug doses per treatment cycle starting at 1,000 mg/m2 weekly x 3, as well as potential survival benefits. The survival of stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated on an international trial of gemcitabine (EO-18) was used to estimate the potential survival gain relative to the survival of stage IV NSCLC patients managed with best supportive care on a randomized trial conducted by the National Cancer Institute of Canada (BR 5). Sensitivity analyses were performed assuming that the survival gain was 25% or 50% less than that reported in the EO-18 trial. The perspective of the economic analysis is that of the government as payer in a universal health care system, and all costs are expressed in 1993 Canadian dollars. Based on the apparent survival advantage of the EO-18 trial in comparison to best supportive care, the cost per life-year gained ranged from $632 to $9,285, depending on the dose per treatment cycle. At the highest dose per cycle (2,000 mg/m2) and with survival reduced by 50% as compared with the EO-18 result, the cost per life-year gained was estimated to be $17,390. From these estimates of direct care costs in the Canadian health care system, gemcitabine appears to be a cost-effective intervention for advanced NSCLC.

Economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced squamous NSCLC in Canada: a comparison of modeling approaches to estimate and extrapolate survival outcomes.

PubMed

Goeree, Ron; Villeneuve, Julie; Goeree, Jeff; Penrod, John R; Orsini, Lucinda; Tahami Monfared, Amir Abbas

2016-06-01

Background Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer in the world and is associated with significant mortality. Nivolumab demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were previously treated. The cost-effectiveness of nivolumab has not been assessed in Canada. A contentious component of projecting long-term cost and outcomes in cancer relates to the modeling approach adopted, with the two most common approaches being partitioned survival (PS) and Markov models. The objectives of this analysis were to estimate the cost-utility of nivolumab and to compare the results using these alternative modeling approaches. Methods Both PS and Markov models were developed using docetaxel and erlotinib as comparators. A three-health state model was used consisting of progression-free, progressed disease, and death. Disease progression and time to progression were estimated by identifying best-fitting survival curves from the clinical trial data for PFS and OS. Expected costs and health outcomes were calculated by combining health-state occupancy with medical resource use and quality-of-life assigned to each of the three health states. The health outcomes included in the model were survival and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs). Results Nivolumab was found to have the highest expected per-patient cost, but also improved per-patient life years (LYs) and QALYs. Nivolumab cost an additional $151,560 and $140,601 per QALY gained compared to docetaxel and erlotinib, respectively, using a PS model approach. The cost-utility estimates using a Markov model were very similar ($152,229 and $141,838, respectively, per QALY gained). Conclusions Nivolumab was found to involve a trade-off between improved patient survival and QALYs, and increased cost. It was found that the use of a PS or Markov model produced very similar estimates of expected cost, outcomes, and incremental cost-utility.

Experimentally induced anhydrobiosis in the tardigrade Richtersius coronifer: phenotypic factors affecting survival.

PubMed

Jönsson, K Ingemar; Rebecchi, Lorena

2002-11-01

The ability of some animal taxa (e.g., nematodes, rotifers, and tardigrades) to enter an ametabolic (cryptobiotic) state is well known. Nevertheless, the phenotypic factors affecting successful anhydrobiosis have rarely been investigated. We report a laboratory study on the effects of body size, reproductive condition, and energetic condition on anhydrobiotic survival in a population of the eutardigrade Richtersius coronifer. Body size and energetic condition interacted in affecting the probability of survival, while reproductive condition had no effect. Large tardigrades had a lower probability of survival than medium-sized tardigrades and showed a positive response in survival to energetic condition. This suggests that energy constrained the possibility for large tardigrades to enter and to leave anhydrobiosis. As a possible alternative explanation for low survival in the largest specimens we discuss the expression of senescence. In line with the view that processes related to anhydrobiosis are connected with energetic costs we documented a decrease in the size of storage cells over a period of anhydrobiosis, showing for the first time that energy is consumed in the process of anhydrobiosis in tardigrades. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

2015-01-01

Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

Spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Qing; Royle, Andy; Boomer, G. Scott

2017-01-01

Knowledge of demographic parameters such as survival, reproduction, emigration, and immigration is essential to understand metapopulation dynamics. Traditionally the estimation of these demographic parameters requires intensive data from marked animals. The development of dynamic N-mixture models makes it possible to estimate demographic parameters from count data of unmarked animals, but the original dynamic N-mixture model does not distinguish emigration and immigration from survival and reproduction, limiting its ability to explain important metapopulation processes such as movement among local populations. In this study we developed a spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture model that estimates survival, reproduction, emigration, local population size, and detection probability from count data under the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches. Simulation studies showed that the inference of our model depends on detection probability, local population size, and the implementation of robust sampling design. Our model provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when detection probability is high, regardless of local population size or the type of sampling design. When detection probability is low, however, our model only provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when local population size is moderate to high and robust sampling design is used. A sensitivity analysis showed that our model is robust against the violation of the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches, suggesting wide applications of this model. Our model can be used to improve our understanding of metapopulation dynamics based on count data that are relatively easy to collect in many systems.

X-43A Rudder Spindle Fatigue Life Estimate and Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaessgen, Edward H.; Dawicke, David S.; Johnston, William M.; James, Mark A.; Simonsen, Micah; Mason, Brian H.

2005-01-01

Fatigue life analyses were performed using a standard strain-life approach and a linear cumulative damage parameter to assess the effect of a single accidental overload on the fatigue life of the Haynes 230 nickel-base superalloy X-43A rudder spindle. Because of a limited amount of information available about the Haynes 230 material, a series of tests were conducted to replicate the overload and in-service conditions for the spindle and corroborate the analysis. Both the analytical and experimental results suggest that the spindle will survive the anticipated flight loads.

Modeling absolute differences in life expectancy with a censored skew-normal regression approach

PubMed Central

Clough-Gorr, Kerri; Zwahlen, Marcel

2015-01-01

Parameter estimates from commonly used multivariable parametric survival regression models do not directly quantify differences in years of life expectancy. Gaussian linear regression models give results in terms of absolute mean differences, but are not appropriate in modeling life expectancy, because in many situations time to death has a negative skewed distribution. A regression approach using a skew-normal distribution would be an alternative to parametric survival models in the modeling of life expectancy, because parameter estimates can be interpreted in terms of survival time differences while allowing for skewness of the distribution. In this paper we show how to use the skew-normal regression so that censored and left-truncated observations are accounted for. With this we model differences in life expectancy using data from the Swiss National Cohort Study and from official life expectancy estimates and compare the results with those derived from commonly used survival regression models. We conclude that a censored skew-normal survival regression approach for left-truncated observations can be used to model differences in life expectancy across covariates of interest. PMID:26339544

WAERS: an application for Web-assisted estimation of relative survival.

PubMed

Clèries, Ramon; Valls, Joan; Esteban, Laura; Gálvez, Jordi; Pareja, Laura; Sanz, Xavier; Alliste, Luisa; Martínez, José Miguel; Moreno, Víctor; Bosch, Xavier; Borràs, Josep Maria; Ribes, Josepa Maria

2007-09-01

Net cancer survival estimation is usually performed by computing relative survival (RS), which is defined as the ratio between observed and expected survival rates. The mortality of a reference population is required in order to compute the expected survival rate, which can be performed using a variety of statistical packages. A new Web interface to compute RS, called WAERS, has been developed by the Catalan Institute of Oncology. The reference population is first selected, and then the RS of a cohort is computed. A remote server is used for this purpose. A mock example serves to illustrate the use of the tool with a hypothetical cohort, for which RS is estimated based on three different reference populations (a province of Spain, an autonomous community (Region), and the entire Spanish population). At present, only mortality tables for different areas of Spain are available. Future improvements of this application will include mortality tables of Latin American and European Union countries, and stratified (control variable) analysis. This application can be also useful for cohort mortality studies and for registries of several diseases.

Survival estimates of wild and captive-bred released Puaiohi, an endangered Hawaiian thrush

USGS Publications Warehouse

VanderWerf, Eric; Crampton, Lisa H.; Diegmann, Julia; Atkinson, Carter T.; Leonard, David L.

2014-01-01

Estimating and monitoring adult and juvenile survival are vital to understanding population status, informing recovery planning for endangered species, and quantifying the success of management. We used mark–recapture models to estimate apparent annual survival of the Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri), an endangered thrush endemic to the Hawaiian island of Kauai, from 2005 to 2011. Our sample included 87 wild birds and 123 captive-bred birds that were released at various ages. Survival was higher for wild adult males (0.71 ± 0.09) than for wild adult females (0.46 ± 0.12). Survival of wild juveniles (0.23 ± 0.06) was lower than that of wild adults of both sexes, indicating that recruitment may limit population growth. Captive-bred birds released when <1 yr old had survival (0.26 ± 0.21) comparable with that of wild juveniles, but captive-bred birds released at 1–3 yr old had very low survival (0.05 ± 0.06). Only 8 of 123 (7%) captive birds were seen again after release. Two wild birds resighted five years after marking are the oldest known individuals, being at least six years of age. Malarial infection did not affect survival of wild Puaiohi, unlike many Hawaiian forest birds. The difference between adult male and adult female survival is consistent with rat (Rattusspp.) predation of females on the nest as a major source of mortality. As such, attempting to reduce nest predation by controlling rats may be the best available management option. Releasing captive-bred birds has had little effect on the wild population in recent years.

Twenty-year follow-up study of long-term survival of limited-stage small-cell lung cancer and overview of prognostic and treatment factors.

PubMed

Tai, Patricia; Tonita, Jon; Yu, Edward; Skarsgard, David

2003-07-01

To predict the long-term survival results of clinical trials earlier than using actuarial methods and to assess the factors predictive of long-term cure in patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer. Between 1981 and 1998, 1417 new cases of small-cell lung cancer were diagnosed in Saskatchewan, Canada, of which 244 were limited stage and treated with curative intent. They were followed to the end of February 2002. A parametric lognormal statistical model was retrospectively validated to determine whether long-term survival rates could be estimated several years earlier than is possible using the standard life-table actuarial method. The survival time of the uncured group followed a lognormal distribution. Four 2-year periods of diagnosis were combined, and patients were followed as a cohort for an additional 2 years. The estimated 10-year cause-specific survival rate was 13% by the lognormal model. The Kaplan-Meier calculation for 10-year cause-specific survival rate was 15% +/- 3%. The data also showed that the absence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy and higher chest radiotherapy dose were significant prognostic factors on multivariate analysis (p < 0.05). Among the 163 patients given prophylactic cranial irradiation, a higher biologically effective dose to the brain did not improve survival or decrease the incidence of brain metastases. The lognormal model has been validated for the estimation of survival in patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer. A higher biologically effective dose to the brain did not improve survival or decrease the incidence of brain metastases.

Low survival rates of Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides) estimated from neck-collar resighting and telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choi, Chang-Yong; Lee, Ki-Sup; Poyarkov, Nikolay D.; Park, Jin-Young; Lee, Hansoo; Takekawa, John Y.; Smith, Lacy M.; Ely, Craig R.; Wang, Xin; Cao, Lei; Fox, Anthony D.; Goroshko, Oleg; Batbayar, Nyambayar; Prosser, Diann J.; Xiao, Xiangming

2016-01-01

Waterbird survival rates are a key component of demographic modeling used for effective conservation of long-lived threatened species. The Swan Goose (Anser cygnoides) is globally threatened and the most vulnerable goose species endemic to East Asia due to its small and rapidly declining population. To address a current knowledge gap in demographic parameters of the Swan Goose, available datasets were compiled from neck-collar resighting and telemetry studies, and two different models were used to estimate their survival rates. Results of a mark-resighting model using 15 years of neck-collar data (2001–2015) provided age-dependent survival rates and season-dependent encounter rates with a constant neck-collar retention rate. Annual survival rate was 0.638 (95% CI: 0.378–0.803) for adults and 0.122 (95% CI: 0.028–0.286) for first-year juveniles. Known-fate models were applied to the single season of telemetry data (autumn 2014) and estimated a mean annual survival rate of 0.408 (95% CI: 0.152–0.670) with higher but non-significant differences for adults (0.477) vs. juveniles (0.306). Our findings indicate that Swan Goose survival rates are comparable to the lowest rates reported for European or North American goose species. Poor survival may be a key demographic parameter contributing to their declining trend. Quantitative threat assessments and associated conservation measures, such as restricting hunting, may be a key step to mitigate for their low survival rates and maintain or enhance their population.

The seed bank longevity index revisited: limited reliability evident from a burial experiment and database analyses.

PubMed

Saatkamp, Arne; Affre, Laurence; Dutoit, Thierry; Poschlod, Peter

2009-09-01

Seed survival in the soil contributes to population persistence and community diversity, creating a need for reliable measures of soil seed bank persistence. Several methods estimate soil seed bank persistence, most of which count seedlings emerging from soil samples. Seasonality, depth distribution and presence (or absence) in vegetation are then used to classify a species' soil seed bank into persistent or transient, often synthesized into a longevity index. This study aims to determine if counts of seedlings from soil samples yield reliable seed bank persistence estimates and if this is correlated to seed production. Seeds of 38 annual weeds taken from arable fields were buried in the field and their viability tested by germination and tetrazolium tests at 6 month intervals for 2.5 years. This direct measure of soil seed survival was compared with indirect estimates from the literature, which use seedling emergence from soil samples to determine seed bank persistence. Published databases were used to explore the generality of the influence of reproductive capacity on seed bank persistence estimates from seedling emergence data. There was no relationship between a species' soil seed survival in the burial experiment and its seed bank persistence estimate from published data using seedling emergence from soil samples. The analysis of complementary data from published databases revealed that while seed bank persistence estimates based on seedling emergence from soil samples are generally correlated with seed production, estimates of seed banks from burial experiments are not. The results can be explained in terms of the seed size-seed number trade-off, which suggests that the higher number of smaller seeds is compensated after germination. Soil seed bank persistence estimates correlated to seed production are therefore not useful for studies on population persistence or community diversity. Confusion of soil seed survival and seed production can be avoided by separate use of soil seed abundance and experimental soil seed survival.

Modeling the effect of toe clipping on treefrog survival: Beyond the return rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waddle, J.H.; Rice, K.G.; Mazzotti, F.J.; Percival, H.F.

2008-01-01

Some studies have described a negative effect of toe clipping on return rates of marked anurans, but the return rate is limited in that it does not account for heterogeneity of capture probabilities. We used open population mark-recapture models to estimate both apparent survival (ϕ) and the recapture probability (p) of two treefrog species individually marked by clipping 2–4 toes. We used information-theoretic model selection to examine the effect of toe clipping on survival while accounting for variation in capture probability. The model selection results indicate strong support for an effect of toe clipping on survival of Green Treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and only limited support for an effect of toe clipping on capture probability. We estimate there was a mean absolute decrease in survival of 5.02% and 11.16% for Green Treefrogs with three and four toes removed, respectively, compared to individuals with just two toes removed. Results for Squirrel Treefrogs (Hyla squirella) indicate little support for an effect of toe clipping on survival but may indicate some support for a negative effect on capture probability. We believe that the return rate alone should not be used to examine survival of marked animals because constant capture probability must be assumed, and our examples demonstrate how capture probability may vary over time and among groups. Mark-recapture models provide a method for estimating the effect of toe clipping on anuran survival in situations where unique marks are applied.

Testing assumptions for unbiased estimation of survival of radiomarked harlequin ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Jarvis, Robert L.

2000-01-01

Unbiased estimates of survival based on individuals outfitted with radiotransmitters require meeting the assumptions that radios do not affect survival, and animals for which the radio signal is lost have the same survival probability as those for which fate is known. In most survival studies, researchers have made these assumptions without testing their validity. We tested these assumptions by comparing interannual recapture rates (and, by inference, survival) between radioed and unradioed adult female harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus), and for radioed females, between right-censored birds (i.e., those for which the radio signal was lost during the telemetry monitoring period) and birds with known fates. We found that recapture rates of birds equipped with implanted radiotransmitters (21.6 ± 3.0%; x̄ ± SE) were similar to unradioed birds (21.7 ± 8.6%), suggesting that radios did not affect survival. Recapture rates also were similar between right-censored (20.6 ± 5.1%) and known-fate individuals (22.1 ± 3.8%), suggesting that missing birds were not subject to differential mortality. We also determined that capture and handling resulted in short-term loss of body mass for both radioed and unradioed females and that this effect was more pronounced for radioed birds (the difference between groups was 15.4 ± 7.1 g). However, no difference existed in body mass after recapture 1 year later. Our study suggests that implanted radios are an unbiased method for estimating survival of harlequin ducks and likely other species under similar circumstances.

Time from HIV seroconversion to death: a collaborative analysis of eight studies in six low and middle-income countries before highly active antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

Todd, Jim; Glynn, Judith R.; Marston, Milly; Lutalo, Tom; Biraro, Sam; Mwita, Wambura; Suriyanon, Vinai; Rangsin, Ram; Nelson, Kenrad E.; Sonnenberg, Pam; Fitzgerald, Dan; Karita, Etienne; Żaba, Basia

2018-01-01

Objectives To estimate survival patterns after HIV infection in adults in low and middle-income countries. Design An analysis of pooled data from eight different studies in six countries. Methods HIV seroconverters were included from eight studies (three population-based, two occupational, and three clinic cohorts) if they were at least 15 years of age, and had no more than 4 years between the last HIV-negative and subsequent HIV-positive test. Four strata were defined: East African cohorts; South African miners cohort; Thai cohorts; Haitian clinic cohort. Kaplan–Meier functions were used to estimate survival patterns, and Weibull distributions were used to model and extend survival estimates. Analyses examined the effect of site, age, and sex on survival. Results From 3823 eligible seroconverters, 1079 deaths were observed in 19 671 person-years of follow-up. Survival times varied by age and by study site. Adjusting to age 25–29 years at seroconversion, the median survival was longer in South African miners: 11.6 years [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.8–13.7] and East African cohorts: 11.1 years (95% CI 8.7–14.2) than in Haiti: 8.3 years (95% CI 3.2–21.4) and Thailand: 7.5 years (95% CI 5.4–10.4). Survival was similar for men and women, after adjustment for age at seroconversion and site. Conclusion Without antiretroviral therapy, overall survival after HIV infection in African cohorts was similar to survival in high-income countries, with a similar pattern of faster progression at older ages at seroconversion. Survival appears to be significantly worse in Thailand where other, unmeasured factors may affect progression. PMID:18032940

The effects of geography on survival in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Zhang, Han; Dziegielewski, Peter T; Jean Nguyen, T T; Jeffery, Caroline C; O'Connell, Daniel A; Harris, Jeffrey R; Seikaly, Hadi

2015-06-01

To assess the survival outcomes of oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) by differing geographical location. Demographic, pathologic, treatment, and survival data was obtained from OCSCC patients from 1998-2010 in Alberta, Canada. 554 patients were included from 660 OCSCC patients. Overall, disease-specific, and disease-free survivals were estimated with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Patients were grouped by geographic locations. Patients from urban locations had improved overall, disease-specific, and disease-free survival compared to rural locations (p<0.05). Two and five year estimates of overall survival were significantly higher in the urban cohort at 84% and 78%, versus rural with 48% and 44%, respectively (p<0.05). Disease-specific and disease-free survival rates were also superior in the urban group (p<0.05). Diagnosis to treatment time for all 3 geographical groups was not found to be statistically significant (p>0.05). This study shows that patients with OCSCC living in urban settings have improved survival compared to rural groups. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating habitat carrying capacity for migrating and wintering waterfowl: Considerations, pitfalls and improvements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Christopher; Dugger, Bruce D.; Brasher, Michael G.; Coluccy, John M.; Cramer, Dane M.; Eadie, John M.; Gray, Matthew J.; Hagy, Heath M.; Livolsi, Mark; McWilliams, Scott R.; Petrie, Matthew; Soulliere, Gregory J.; Tirpak, John M.; Webb, Elisabeth B.

2014-01-01

Population-based habitat conservation planning for migrating and wintering waterfowl in North America is carried out by habitat Joint Venture (JV) initiatives and is based on the premise that food can limit demography (i.e. food limitation hypothesis). Consequently, planners use bioenergetic models to estimate food (energy) availability and population-level energy demands at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, and translate these values into regional habitat objectives. While simple in principle, there are both empirical and theoretical challenges associated with calculating energy supply and demand including: 1) estimating food availability, 2) estimating the energy content of specific foods, 3) extrapolating site-specific estimates of food availability to landscapes for focal species, 4) applicability of estimates from a single species to other species, 5) estimating resting metabolic rate, 6) estimating cost of daily behaviours, and 7) estimating costs of thermoregulation or tissue synthesis. Most models being used are daily ration models (DRMs) whose set of simplifying assumptions are well established and whose use is widely accepted and feasible given the empirical data available to populate such models. However, DRMs do not link habitat objectives to metrics of ultimate ecological importance such as individual body condition or survival, and largely only consider food-producing habitats. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide a possible alternative for creating more biologically realistic models under some conditions; however, ABMs require different types of empirical inputs, many of which have yet to be estimated for key North American waterfowl. Decisions about how JVs can best proceed with habitat conservation would benefit from the use of sensitivity analyses that could identify the empirical and theoretical uncertainties that have the greatest influence on efforts to estimate habitat carrying capacity. Development of ABMs at restricted, yet biologically relevant spatial scales, followed by comparisons of their outputs to those generated from more simplistic, deterministic models can provide a means of assessing degrees of dissimilarity in how alternative models describe desired landscape conditions for migrating and wintering waterfowl.

Comparison of survival patterns of northern and southern genotypes of the North American tick Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) under northern and southern conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, Howard S.; Rulison, Eric L.; Azevedo, Alexandra; Pang, Genevieve C.; Kuczaj, Isis M.; Tsao, Jean I.; LeBrun, Roger A.

2014-01-01

BackgroundSeveral investigators have reported genetic differences between northern and southern populations of Ixodes scapularis in North America, as well as differences in patterns of disease transmission. Ecological and behavioral correlates of these genetic differences, which might have implications for disease transmission, have not been reported. We compared survival of northern with that of southern genotypes under both northern and southern environmental conditions in laboratory trials.MethodsSubadult I. scapularis from laboratory colonies that originated from adults collected from deer from several sites in the northeastern, north central, and southern U.S. were exposed to controlled conditions in environmental chambers. Northern and southern genotypes were exposed to light:dark and temperature conditions of northern and southern sites with controlled relative humidities, and mortality through time was recorded.ResultsTicks from different geographical locations differed in survival patterns, with larvae from Wisconsin surviving longer than larvae from Massachusetts, South Carolina or Georgia, when held under the same conditions. In another experiment, larvae from Florida survived longer than larvae from Michigan. Therefore, survival patterns of regional genotypes did not follow a simple north–south gradient. The most consistent result was that larvae from all locations generally survived longer under northern conditions than under southern conditions.ConclusionsOur results suggest that conditions in southern North America are less hospitable than in the north to populations of I. scapularis. Southern conditions might have resulted in ecological or behavioral adaptations that contribute to the relative rarity of I. scapularis borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis, in the southern compared to the northern United States.

Annual survival and recruitment in a Ruby-throated Hummingbird population, excluding the effect of transient individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hilton, B.; Miller, M.W.

2003-01-01

We estimated annual apparent survival, recruitment, and rate of population growth of breeding Ruby-throated Hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris), while controlling for transients, by using 18 years of capture-mark-recapture data collected during 1984-2001 at Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History near York, South Carolina. Resident males had lower apparent survival (0.30 +/- 0.05 SE) than females (0.43 +/- 0.04). Estimates of apparent survival did not differ by age. Point estimates suggested that newly banded males were less likely than females to be residents, but standard errors of these estimates overlapped (males: 0.60 +/- 0.14 SE; females: 0.67 +/- 0.09). Estimated female recruitment was 0.60 +/- 0.06 SE, meaning that 60% of adult females present in any given year had entered the population during the previous year. Our estimate for rate of change indicated the population of female hummingbirds was stable during the study period (1.04 +/- 0.04 SE). We suggest an annual goal of greater than or equal to 64 adult females and greater than or equal to 64 immature females released per banding area to enable rigorous future tests for effects of covariates on population dynamics. Development of a broader cooperating network of hummingbird banders in eastern North America could allow tests for regional or metapopulation dynamics in this species.

Evaluation of long-term survival: use of diagnostics and robust estimators with Cox's proportional hazards model.

PubMed

Valsecchi, M G; Silvestri, D; Sasieni, P

1996-12-30

We consider methodological problems in evaluating long-term survival in clinical trials. In particular we examine the use of several methods that extend the basic Cox regression analysis. In the presence of a long term observation, the proportional hazard (PH) assumption may easily be violated and a few long term survivors may have a large effect on parameter estimates. We consider both model selection and robust estimation in a data set of 474 ovarian cancer patients enrolled in a clinical trial and followed for between 7 and 12 years after randomization. Two diagnostic plots for assessing goodness-of-fit are introduced. One shows the variation in time of parameter estimates and is an alternative to PH checking based on time-dependent covariates. The other takes advantage of the martingale residual process in time to represent the lack of fit with a metric of the type 'observed minus expected' number of events. Robust estimation is carried out by maximizing a weighted partial likelihood which downweights the contribution to estimation of influential observations. This type of complementary analysis of long-term results of clinical studies is useful in assessing the soundness of the conclusions on treatment effect. In the example analysed here, the difference in survival between treatments was mostly confined to those individuals who survived at least two years beyond randomization.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laufenberg, Jared S.; Clark, Joseph D.; Chandler, Richard B.

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years () was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when , suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

PubMed

Laufenberg, Jared S; Clark, Joseph D; Chandler, Richard B

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text]) was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Survival Gains from First‐Line Systemic Therapy in Metastatic Non‐Small Cell Lung Cancer in the U.S., 1990–2015: Progress and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Goulart, Bernardo H. L.; Ravelo, Arliene; Kolkey, Holli; Ramsey, Scott D.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background. Approximately 190,000 Americans are diagnosed with non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) annually, and about half have metastatic (Stage IV) disease. These patients have historically had poor survival prognosis, but several new therapies introduced since 2000 provide options for improved outcomes. The objectives of this study were to quantify survival gains from 1990, when best supportive care (BSC) only was standard, to 2015 and to estimate the impact of expanded use of systemic therapies in clinically appropriate patients. Materials and Methods. We developed a simulation model to estimate survival gains for patients with metastatic NSCLC from 1990–2015. Survival estimates were derived from major clinical trials and extrapolated to a lifetime horizon. Proportions of patients receiving available therapies were derived from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and a commercial treatment registry. We also estimated gains in overall survival (OS) in scenarios in which systemic therapy use increased by 10% and 30% relative to current use. Results. From 1990–2015, one‐year survival proportion increased by 14.1% and mean per‐patient survival improved by 4.2 months (32,700 population life years). Increasing treated patients by 10% or 30% increased OS by 5.1 months (39,700 population life years) and 6.9 months (53,800 population life years), respectively. Conclusion. Although survival remains poor in metastatic NSCLC relative to other common cancers, meaningful progress in per‐patient and population‐level outcomes has been realized over the past 25 years. These advances can be improved even further by increasing use of systemic therapies in the substantial proportion of patients who are suitable for treatment yet who currently receive BSC only. Implications for Practice. Approximately 93,500 Americans are diagnosed with metastatic non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) annually. Historically, these patients have had poor survival prognosis, but newer therapies provide options for improved outcomes. This simulation modeling study quantified metastatic NSCLC survival gains from 1990–2015. Over this period, the one‐year survival proportion and mean per‐patient survival increased by 14.1% and 4.2 months, respectively. Though metastatic NSCLC survival remains poor, the past 25 years have brought meaningful gains. Additional gains could be realized by increasing systemic therapy use in the substantial proportion of patients who are suitable for treatment, yet currently receive only supportive care. PMID:28242792

Population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, Jason L.; Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Wilson, Heather M.; Morse, Julie A.

2009-01-01

Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of λ to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.

Assessment of survival rates and reproductive success of captive bred milky stork released at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary, Perak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faiq, H.; Safie, M. Y.; Shukor, M. N.

2016-11-01

A release programme of captive bred Milky Storks was initiated to increase population size in the wild. Population size depends on the survival rate and breeding success of individuals in the population. Among factors that affect survival rate and breeding success are population age class and sex ratio. The main objective of this study was to estimate the survival rate of Mycteria cinerea that has been released in Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary since 2007. The estimation of the survival rate was done across gender and age class. This study was conducted in 2012 at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary. The presence of M. cinerea individuals were recorded at the sanctuary and identified to background information, such as date of birth, gender and date of release. Females of M. cinerea were estimated to have a higher survival rate (30.0%) than male (16.7%). Across gender, each individual was assigned into 4 different age classes, namely less than 1 year, between 1 and 2 years, between 2 and 3 years, and more than 3 years. The survival rate of individuals less than 1 year was about 50%, between 1 and 2 years was 25%, between 2 and 3 years was 9.1%, and more than 3 years was 0%. This study was intended to facilitate future release programmeme on which gender and age class to emphasize.

Rectal cancer survival in the United States by race and stage, 2001 to 2009: Findings from the CONCORD-2 study.

PubMed

Joseph, Djenaba A; Johnson, Chris J; White, Arica; Wu, Manxia; Coleman, Michel P

2017-12-15

In the first CONCORD study, 5-year survival for patients with diagnosed with rectal cancer between 1990 and 1994 was <60%, with large racial disparities noted in the majority of participating states. We have updated these findings to 2009 by examining population-based survival by stage of disease at the time of diagnosis, race, and calendar period. Data from the CONCORD-2 study were used to compare survival among individuals aged 15 to 99 years who were diagnosed in 37 states encompassing up to 80% of the US population. We estimated net survival up to 5 years after diagnosis correcting for background mortality with state-specific and race-specific life table. Survival estimates were age-standardized with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. We present survival estimates by race (all, black, and white) for 2001 through 2003 and 2004 through 2009 to account for changes in collecting the data for Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Summary Stage 2000. There was a small increase in 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year net survival between 2001-2003 (84.6%, 70.7%, and 63.2%, respectively), and 2004-2009 (85.1%, 71.5%, and 64.1%, respectively). Black individuals were found to have lower 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival than white individuals in both periods; the absolute difference in survival between black and white individuals declined only for 5-year survival. Black patients had lower 5-year survival than whites at each stage at the time of diagnosis in both time periods. There was little improvement noted in net survival for patients with rectal cancer, with persistent disparities noted between black and white individuals. Additional investigation is needed to identify and implement effective interventions to ensure the consistent and equitable use of high-quality screening, diagnosis, and treatment to improve survival for patients with rectal cancer. Cancer 2017;123:5037-58. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates.

PubMed

Dudgeon, Christine L; Pollock, Kenneth H; Braccini, J Matias; Semmens, Jayson M; Barnett, Adam

2015-07-01

Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

Summary of Migration and Survival Data from Radio-Tagged Juvenile Coho Salmon in the Trinity River, Northern California, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Hansel, Hal; Juhnke, Steve; Stutzer, Greg

2009-01-01

The survival of hatchery-origin juvenile coho salmon from the Trinity River Hatchery was estimated as they migrated seaward through the Trinity and Klamath Rivers. The purpose of the study was to collect data for comparison to a similar study in the Klamath River and provide data to the Trinity River Restoration Program. A total of 200 fish fitted with radio transmitters were released into the Trinity River near the hatchery (river kilometer 252 from the mouth of the Klamath River) biweekly from March 19 to May 28, 2008. Fish from the earliest release groups took longer to pass the first detection site 10 kilometers downstream of the hatchery than fish from the later release groups, but travel times between subsequent sites were often similar among the release groups. The travel times of individuals through the 239 kilometer study area ranged from 15.5 to 84.6 days with a median of 43.3 days. The data and models did not support differences in survival among release groups, but did support differences among river reaches. The probability of survival in the first 53 kilometers was lower than in the reaches farther downstream, which is similar to trends in juvenile coho salmon in the Klamath River. The lowest estimated survival in this study was in the first 10 kilometers from release in the Trinity River (0.676 SE 0.036) and the highest estimated survival was in the final 20 kilometer reach in the Klamath River (0.987 SE 0.013). Estimated survivals of radio-tagged juvenile coho salmon from release to Klamath River kilometer 33 were 0.639 per 100 kilometers for Trinity River fish and 0.721 per 100 kilometers for Klamath River fish.

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

PubMed

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Analysis of survival data from telemetry projects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunck, C.M.; Winterstein, S.R.; Pollock, K.H.

1985-01-01

Telemetry techniques can be used to study the survival rates of animal populations and are particularly suitable for species or settings for which band recovery models are not. Statistical methods for estimating survival rates and parameters of survival distributions from observations of radio-tagged animals will be described. These methods have been applied to medical and engineering studies and to the study of nest success. Estimates and tests based on discrete models, originally introduced by Mayfield, and on continuous models, both parametric and nonparametric, will be described. Generalizations, including staggered entry of subjects into the study and identification of mortality factors will be considered. Additional discussion topics will include sample size considerations, relocation frequency for subjects, and use of covariates.

Time prediction of failure a type of lamps by using general composite hazard rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

This paper discusses the basic survival model estimates to obtain the average predictive value of lamp failure time. This estimate is for the parametric model, General Composite Hazard Level Model. The random time variable model used is the exponential distribution model, as the basis, which has a constant hazard function. In this case, we discuss an example of survival model estimation for a composite hazard function, using an exponential model as its basis. To estimate this model is done by estimating model parameters, through the construction of survival function and empirical cumulative function. The model obtained, will then be used to predict the average failure time of the model, for the type of lamp. By grouping the data into several intervals and the average value of failure at each interval, then calculate the average failure time of a model based on each interval, the p value obtained from the tes result is 0.3296.

Survival in Extreme Conditions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bloom, Martin; Halsema, James

1983-01-01

Explores the psychosocial and environmental configurations involved in the survival of 500 civilians in a Japanese internment camp in the Philippines during World War II. Although conditions were very harsh, the survival rate of this group was better than expected. Discusses available demographic, social organizational, and cultural information.…

Human neuroblastoma growth inhibitory factor (h-NGIF), derived from human astrocytoma conditioned medium, has neurotrophic properties.

PubMed

Eksioglu, Y Z; Iida, J; Asai, K; Ueki, T; Nakanishi, K; Isobe, I; Yamagata, K; Kato, T

1994-05-02

Investigations on the general characteristics of human astrocytoma cell line NAC-1 revealed neuroblastoma growth inhibitory activity in conditioned medium. Neuroblastoma growth inhibitory factor (NGIF) was partially purified by Econo Q, Econo CM, and Superose 12 column chromatography. The protein is weakly basic with an estimated M(r) of 120,000, possibly having an M(r) 60,000 dimeric structure. NGIF inhibits the growth of human neuroblastoma cell lines but has no effect on morphology nor does it produce any change in the growth of human glioblastoma cell lines. Interestingly, NGIF appears to promote survival and neurite outgrowth of embryonal rat cortical neurons. These neurotrophic properties suggest a role for NGIF in the development of the nervous system.

The genetics of overwintering performance in two-year old common carp and its relation to performance until market size

PubMed Central

Kause, Antti; Vandeputte, Marc; Gela, David; Allamellou, Jean-Michel; Kumar, Girish; Bestin, Anastasia; Bugeon, Jérôme; Zhao, Jinfeng; Kocour, Martin

2018-01-01

Using farmed common carp, we investigated the genetic background of the second year overwintering performance and its relation to the performance during the third growing season and at market size. The experimental stock was established by partial factorial design with a series of 4 factorial matings of 5 dams and 10 sires each. The families were reared communally and pedigree was re-constructed with 93.6% success using 12 microsatellites on 2008 offspring. Three successive recordings (second autumn, third spring, and third autumn—market size) covering two periods (second overwintering, third growing season) were included. Body weight, Fulton’s condition factor and percent muscle fat content were recorded at all times and headless carcass yield and fillet yield were recorded at market size. Specific growth rate, absolute and relative fat change and overall survival were calculated for each period. Heritability estimates were significantly different from zero and almost all traits were moderately to highly heritable (h2 = 0.36–1.00), except survival in both periods and fat change (both patterns) during overwintering (h2 = 0.12–0.15). Genetic and phenotypic correlations imply that selection against weight loss and fat loss during overwintering is expected to lead to a better winter survival, together with a positive effect on growth in the third growing season. Interestingly, higher muscle fat content was genetically correlated to lower survival in the following period (rg = -0.59; -0.53, respectively for winter and the third summer). On the other hand, higher muscle fat was also genetically linked to better slaughter yields. Moreover, selection for higher condition factor would lead to better performance during winter, growing season and at market size. PMID:29370279

Determinants of the relationship between cost and survival time after elective adult cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Ho, K M

2014-05-01

Cardiac surgery is increasingly performed on elderly patients with multiple comorbid conditions, but the determinants of the relationship between cost and survival time after cardiac surgery for patients with a serious cardiac condition remain uncertain. Using the long-term outcome data of a cohort study on adult cardiac surgical patients, the relationship between cost and survival time after cardiac surgery from a hospital service perspective was determined. The total cost for each patient was estimated by the costs of the surgical procedures, intra-aortic balloon pump utilisation, operating theatre utilisation, blood products, intensive care unit stay and cumulative hospital stay up to a median follow-up time of 30 months. Of the 2131 patients considered in this study, a total cost >A$100,000 per life-year after cardiac surgery was observed only in 171 patients (8.0%, 95% confidence interval 6.9 to 9.3%). Age, Charlson Comorbidity Index and EuroSCORE were all related to the cost per life-year after cardiac surgery, but EuroSCORE (odds ratio 1.26 per score increment, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.35, P=0.001) was, by far, the most important determinant and explained 32% of the variability in cost per life-year after cardiac surgery. Patients with a high EuroSCORE were associated with a substantially longer length of intensive care unit stay and cumulative hospital stay, as well as a shorter survival time after cardiac surgery compared to patients with a lower EuroSCORE. Of all the subgroups of patients examined, only patients with a EuroSCORE >5 were consistently associated with a cost >A$100,000 per life-year (cost per life-year $183,148, 95% confidence interval 125, 394 to 240, 902).

Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.

2016-01-01

Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

The genetics of overwintering performance in two-year old common carp and its relation to performance until market size.

PubMed

Prchal, Martin; Kause, Antti; Vandeputte, Marc; Gela, David; Allamellou, Jean-Michel; Kumar, Girish; Bestin, Anastasia; Bugeon, Jérôme; Zhao, Jinfeng; Kocour, Martin

2018-01-01

Using farmed common carp, we investigated the genetic background of the second year overwintering performance and its relation to the performance during the third growing season and at market size. The experimental stock was established by partial factorial design with a series of 4 factorial matings of 5 dams and 10 sires each. The families were reared communally and pedigree was re-constructed with 93.6% success using 12 microsatellites on 2008 offspring. Three successive recordings (second autumn, third spring, and third autumn-market size) covering two periods (second overwintering, third growing season) were included. Body weight, Fulton's condition factor and percent muscle fat content were recorded at all times and headless carcass yield and fillet yield were recorded at market size. Specific growth rate, absolute and relative fat change and overall survival were calculated for each period. Heritability estimates were significantly different from zero and almost all traits were moderately to highly heritable (h2 = 0.36-1.00), except survival in both periods and fat change (both patterns) during overwintering (h2 = 0.12-0.15). Genetic and phenotypic correlations imply that selection against weight loss and fat loss during overwintering is expected to lead to a better winter survival, together with a positive effect on growth in the third growing season. Interestingly, higher muscle fat content was genetically correlated to lower survival in the following period (rg = -0.59; -0.53, respectively for winter and the third summer). On the other hand, higher muscle fat was also genetically linked to better slaughter yields. Moreover, selection for higher condition factor would lead to better performance during winter, growing season and at market size.

Estimating species-specific suvival and movement when species identification is uncertain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, J.P.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2007-01-01

Incorporating uncertainty in the investigation of ecological studies has been the topic of an increasing body of research. In particular, mark?recapture methodology has shown that incorporating uncertainty in the probability of detecting individuals in populations enables accurate estimation of population-level processes such as survival, reproduction, and dispersal. Recent advances in mark?recapture methodology have included estimating population-level processes for biologically important groups despite the misassignment of individuals to those groups. Examples include estimating rates of apparent survival despite less than perfect accuracy when identifying individuals to gender or breeding state. Here we introduce a method for estimating apparent survival and dispersal in species that co-occur but that are difficult to distinguish. We use data from co-occurring populations of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and montane voles (M. montanus) in addition to simulated data to show that ignoring species uncertainty can lead to biased estimates of population processes. The incorporation of species uncertainty in mark?recapture studies should aid future research investigating ecological concepts such as interspecific competition, niche differentiation, and spatial population dynamics in sibling species.

Using population models to evaluate management alternatives for Gulf Striped Bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aspinwall, Alexander P.; Irwin, Elise R.; Lloyd, M. Clint

2017-01-01

Interstate management of Gulf Striped Bass Morone saxatilis has involved a thirty-year cooperative effort involving Federal and State agencies in Georgia, Florida and Alabama (Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Gulf Striped Bass Technical Committee). The Committee has recently focused on developing an adaptive framework for conserving and restoring Gulf Striped Bass in the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River (ACF) system. To evaluate the consequences and tradeoffs among management activities, population models were used to inform management decisions. Stochastic matrix models were constructed with varying recruitment and stocking rates to simulate effects of management alternatives on Gulf Striped Bass population objectives. An age-classified matrix model that incorporated stock fecundity estimates and survival estimates was used to project population growth rate. In addition, combinations of management alternatives (stocking rates, Hydrilla control, harvest regulations) were evaluated with respect to how they influenced Gulf Striped Bass population growth. Annual survival and mortality rates were estimated from catch-curve analysis, while fecundity was estimated and predicted using a linear least squares regression analysis of fish length versus egg number from hatchery brood fish data. Stocking rates and stocked-fish survival rates were estimated from census data. Results indicated that management alternatives could be an effective approach to increasing the Gulf Striped Bass population. Population abundance was greatest under maximum stocking effort, maximum Hydrilla control and a moratorium. Conversely, population abundance was lowest under no stocking, no Hydrilla control and the current harvest regulation. Stocking rates proved to be an effective management strategy; however, low survival estimates of stocked fish (1%) limited the potential for population growth. Hydrilla control increased the survival rate of stocked fish and provided higher estimates of population abundances than maximizing the stocking rate. A change in the current harvest regulation (50% harvest regulation) was not an effective alternative to increasing the Gulf Striped Bass population size. Applying a moratorium to the Gulf Striped Bass fishery increased survival rates from 50% to 74% and resulted in the largest population growth of the individual management alternatives. These results could be used by the Committee to inform management decisions for other populations of Striped Bass in the Gulf Region.

Integration of Harvest and Time-to-Event Data Used to Estimate Demographic Parameters for White-tailed Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Andrew S.

An integral component of managing game species is an understanding of population dynamics and relative abundance. Harvest data are frequently used to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer. Unless harvest age-structure is representative of the population age-structure and harvest vulnerability remains constant from year to year, these data alone are of limited value. Additional model structure and auxiliary information has accommodated this shortcoming. Specifically, integrated age-at-harvest (AAH) state-space population models can formally combine multiple sources of data, and regularization via hierarchical model structure can increase flexibility of model parameters. I collected known fates data, which I evaluated and used to inform trends in survival parameters for an integrated AAH model. I used temperature and snow depth covariates to predict survival outside of the hunting season, and opening weekend temperature and percent of corn harvest covariates to predict hunting season survival. When auxiliary empirical data were unavailable for the AAH model, moderately informative priors provided sufficient information for convergence and parameter estimates. The AAH model was most sensitive to errors in initial abundance, but this error was calibrated after 3 years. Among vital rates, the AAH model was most sensitive to reporting rates (percentage of mortality during the hunting season related to harvest). The AAH model, using only harvest data, was able to track changing abundance trends due to changes in survival rates even when prior models did not inform these changes (i.e. prior models were constant when truth varied). I also compared AAH model results with estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WIDNR). Trends in abundance estimates from both models were similar, although AAH model predictions were systematically higher than WIDNR estimates in the East study area. When I incorporated auxiliary information (i.e. integrated AAH model) about survival outside the hunting season from known fates data, predicted trends appeared more closely related to what was expected. Disagreements between the AAH model and WIDNR estimates in the East were likely related to biased predictions for reporting and survival rates from the AAH model.

The longevity of adaptive memory: evidence for mnemonic advantages of survival processing 24 and 48 hours later.

PubMed

Raymaekers, Linsey H C; Otgaar, Henry; Smeets, Tom

2014-01-01

Prior studies have convincingly demonstrated that survival-related processing of information enhances its subsequent retention. This phenomenon, known as the survival recall advantage, generalises to other stimuli, memory domains, and research populations, thereby underscoring its reliability. As previous studies used only short retention intervals between survival processing and the memory test, an important yet hitherto unanswered issue is whether this effect persists over time. The present experiment therefore examined whether survival processing also produces mnemonic benefits when retention is tested after longer delay periods. Participants (N =81) rated the relevance of words according to a survival and a moving scenario, and were then randomly assigned to the typical immediate (3-minute delay) retention test condition or conditions that included a 24- or 48-hour interval between survival processing and memory testing. In each of these conditions survival processing led to higher surprise free recall and recognition rates than processing words according to the moving scenario. Thus this study provides evidence that illustrates the longevity of survival processing advantages on memory performance.

A Simple Method for Principal Strata Effects When the Outcome Has Been Truncated Due to Death

PubMed Central

Chiba, Yasutaka; VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2011-01-01

In randomized trials with follow-up, outcomes such as quality of life may be undefined for individuals who die before the follow-up is complete. In such settings, restricting analysis to those who survive can give rise to biased outcome comparisons. An alternative approach is to consider the “principal strata effect” or “survivor average causal effect” (SACE), defined as the effect of treatment on the outcome among the subpopulation that would have survived under either treatment arm. The authors describe a very simple technique that can be used to assess the SACE. They give both a sensitivity analysis technique and conditions under which a crude comparison provides a conservative estimate of the SACE. The method is illustrated using data from the ARDSnet (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network) clinical trial comparing low-volume ventilation and traditional ventilation methods for individuals with acute respiratory distress syndrome. PMID:21354986

A simple method for principal strata effects when the outcome has been truncated due to death.

PubMed

Chiba, Yasutaka; VanderWeele, Tyler J

2011-04-01

In randomized trials with follow-up, outcomes such as quality of life may be undefined for individuals who die before the follow-up is complete. In such settings, restricting analysis to those who survive can give rise to biased outcome comparisons. An alternative approach is to consider the "principal strata effect" or "survivor average causal effect" (SACE), defined as the effect of treatment on the outcome among the subpopulation that would have survived under either treatment arm. The authors describe a very simple technique that can be used to assess the SACE. They give both a sensitivity analysis technique and conditions under which a crude comparison provides a conservative estimate of the SACE. The method is illustrated using data from the ARDSnet (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network) clinical trial comparing low-volume ventilation and traditional ventilation methods for individuals with acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Testing homogeneity in Weibull-regression models.

PubMed

Bolfarine, Heleno; Valença, Dione M

2005-10-01

In survival studies with families or geographical units it may be of interest testing whether such groups are homogeneous for given explanatory variables. In this paper we consider score type tests for group homogeneity based on a mixing model in which the group effect is modelled as a random variable. As opposed to hazard-based frailty models, this model presents survival times that conditioned on the random effect, has an accelerated failure time representation. The test statistics requires only estimation of the conventional regression model without the random effect and does not require specifying the distribution of the random effect. The tests are derived for a Weibull regression model and in the uncensored situation, a closed form is obtained for the test statistic. A simulation study is used for comparing the power of the tests. The proposed tests are applied to real data sets with censored data.

Accounting for tagging-to-harvest mortality in a Brownie tag-recovery model by incorporating radio-telemetry data.

PubMed

Buderman, Frances E; Diefenbach, Duane R; Casalena, Mary Jo; Rosenberry, Christopher S; Wallingford, Bret D

2014-04-01

The Brownie tag-recovery model is useful for estimating harvest rates but assumes all tagged individuals survive to the first hunting season; otherwise, mortality between time of tagging and the hunting season will cause the Brownie estimator to be negatively biased. Alternatively, fitting animals with radio transmitters can be used to accurately estimate harvest rate but may be more costly. We developed a joint model to estimate harvest and annual survival rates that combines known-fate data from animals fitted with transmitters to estimate the probability of surviving the period from capture to the first hunting season, and data from reward-tagged animals in a Brownie tag-recovery model. We evaluated bias and precision of the joint estimator, and how to optimally allocate effort between animals fitted with radio transmitters and inexpensive ear tags or leg bands. Tagging-to-harvest survival rates from >20 individuals with radio transmitters combined with 50-100 reward tags resulted in an unbiased and precise estimator of harvest rates. In addition, the joint model can test whether transmitters affect an individual's probability of being harvested. We illustrate application of the model using data from wild turkey, Meleagris gallapavo, to estimate harvest rates, and data from white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, to evaluate whether the presence of a visible radio transmitter is related to the probability of a deer being harvested. The joint known-fate tag-recovery model eliminates the requirement to capture and mark animals immediately prior to the hunting season to obtain accurate and precise estimates of harvest rate. In addition, the joint model can assess whether marking animals with radio transmitters affects the individual's probability of being harvested, caused by hunter selectivity or changes in a marked animal's behavior.

Accounting for tagging-to-harvest mortality in a Brownie tag-recovery model by incorporating radio-telemetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buderman, Frances E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Casalena, Mary Jo; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

2014-01-01

The Brownie tag-recovery model is useful for estimating harvest rates but assumes all tagged individuals survive to the first hunting season; otherwise, mortality between time of tagging and the hunting season will cause the Brownie estimator to be negatively biased. Alternatively, fitting animals with radio transmitters can be used to accurately estimate harvest rate but may be more costly. We developed a joint model to estimate harvest and annual survival rates that combines known-fate data from animals fitted with transmitters to estimate the probability of surviving the period from capture to the first hunting season, and data from reward-tagged animals in a Brownie tag-recovery model. We evaluated bias and precision of the joint estimator, and how to optimally allocate effort between animals fitted with radio transmitters and inexpensive ear tags or leg bands. Tagging-to-harvest survival rates from >20 individuals with radio transmitters combined with 50–100 reward tags resulted in an unbiased and precise estimator of harvest rates. In addition, the joint model can test whether transmitters affect an individual's probability of being harvested. We illustrate application of the model using data from wild turkey, Meleagris gallapavo,to estimate harvest rates, and data from white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, to evaluate whether the presence of a visible radio transmitter is related to the probability of a deer being harvested. The joint known-fate tag-recovery model eliminates the requirement to capture and mark animals immediately prior to the hunting season to obtain accurate and precise estimates of harvest rate. In addition, the joint model can assess whether marking animals with radio transmitters affects the individual's probability of being harvested, caused by hunter selectivity or changes in a marked animal's behavior.

A smoothed residual based goodness-of-fit statistic for nest-survival models

Treesearch

Rodney X. Sturdivant; Jay J. Rotella; Robin E. Russell

2008-01-01

Estimating nest success and identifying important factors related to nest-survival rates is an essential goal for many wildlife researchers interested in understanding avian population dynamics. Advances in statistical methods have led to a number of estimation methods and approaches to modeling this problem. Recently developed models allow researchers to include a...

Larval salinity tolerance of the South American salt-marsh crab, Neohelice (Chasmagnathus) granulata: physiological constraints to estuarine retention, export and reimmigration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anger, Klaus; Spivak, Eduardo; Luppi, Tomás; Bas, Claudia; Ismael, Deborah

2008-06-01

The semiterrestrial crab Neohelice (= Chasmagnathus) granulata (Dana 1851) is a predominant species in brackish salt marshes, mangroves and estuaries. Its larvae are exported towards coastal marine waters. In order to estimate the limits of salinity tolerance constraining larval retention in estuarine habitats, we exposed in laboratory experiments freshly hatched zoeae to six different salinities (5 32‰). At 5‰, the larvae survived for a maximum of 2 weeks, reaching only exceptionally the second zoeal stage, while 38% survived to the megalopa stage at 10‰. Shortest development and negligible mortality occurred at all higher salt concentrations. These observations show that the larvae of N. granulata can tolerate a retention in the mesohaline reaches of estuaries, with a lower limit of ca. 10 15‰. Maximum survival at 25‰ suggests that polyhaline conditions rather than an export to oceanic waters are optimal for successful larval development of this species. In another experiment, we tested the capability of the last zoeal stage (IV) for reimmigration from coastal marine into brackish waters. Stepwise reductions of salinity during this stage allowed for moulting to the megalopa at 4 10‰. Although survival was at these conditions reduced and development delayed, these results suggest that already the zoea-IV stage is able to initiate the reimmigration into estuaries. After further salinity reduction, megalopae survived in this experiment for up to >3 weeks in freshwater, without moulting to juvenile crabs. In a similar experiment starting from the megalopa stage, successful metamorphosis occurred at 4 10‰, and juvenile growth continued in freshwater. Although these juvenile crabs showed significantly enhanced mortality and smaller carapace width compared to a seawater control, our results show that the late larval and early juvenile stages of N. granulata are well adapted for successful recruitment in brackish and even limnetic habitats.

Survival of akinetes (resting-state cells of cyanobacteria) in low earth orbit and simulated extraterrestrial conditions.

PubMed

Olsson-Francis, Karen; de la Torre, Rosa; Towner, Martin C; Cockell, Charles S

2009-12-01

Cyanobacteria are photosynthetic organisms that have been considered for space applications, such as oxygen production in bioregenerative life support systems, and can be used as a model organism for understanding microbial survival in space. Akinetes are resting-state cells of cyanobacteria that are produced by certain genera of heterocystous cyanobacteria to survive extreme environmental conditions. Although they are similar in nature to endospores, there have been no investigations into the survival of akinetes in extraterrestrial environments. The aim of this work was to examine the survival of akinetes from Anabaena cylindrica in simulated extraterrestrial conditions and in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Akinetes were dried onto limestone rocks and sent into LEO for 10 days on the ESA Biopan VI. In ground-based experiments, the rocks were exposed to periods of desiccation, vacuum (0.7×10(-3) kPa), temperature extremes (-80 to 80°C), Mars conditions (-27°C, 0.8 kPa, CO(2)) and UV radiation (325-400 nm). A proportion of the akinete population was able to survive a period of 10 days in LEO and 28 days in Mars simulated conditions, when the rocks were not subjected to UV radiation. Furthermore, the akinetes were able to survive 28 days of exposure to desiccation and low temperature with high viability remaining. Yet long periods of vacuum and high temperature were lethal to the akinetes. This work shows that akinetes are extreme-tolerating states of cyanobacteria that have a practical use in space applications and yield new insight into the survival of microbial resting-state cells in space conditions.

On the validity of time-dependent AUC estimators.

PubMed

Schmid, Matthias; Kestler, Hans A; Potapov, Sergej

2015-01-01

Recent developments in molecular biology have led to the massive discovery of new marker candidates for the prediction of patient survival. To evaluate the predictive value of these markers, statistical tools for measuring the performance of survival models are needed. We consider estimators of discrimination measures, which are a popular approach to evaluate survival predictions in biomarker studies. Estimators of discrimination measures are usually based on regularity assumptions such as the proportional hazards assumption. Based on two sets of molecular data and a simulation study, we show that violations of the regularity assumptions may lead to over-optimistic estimates of prediction accuracy and may therefore result in biased conclusions regarding the clinical utility of new biomarkers. In particular, we demonstrate that biased medical decision making is possible even if statistical checks indicate that all regularity assumptions are satisfied. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Donor cytomegalovirus status influences the outcome of allogeneic stem cell transplant: a study by the European group for blood and marrow transplantation.

PubMed

Ljungman, Per; Brand, Ronald; Hoek, Jennifer; de la Camara, Rafael; Cordonnier, Catherine; Einsele, Hermann; Styczynski, Jan; Ward, Katherine N; Cesaro, Simone

2014-08-15

The use of a cytomegalovirus (CMV)-seronegative donor for a CMV-seronegative allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipient is generally accepted. However, the importance of donor serostatus in CMV-seropositive patients is controversial. A total of 49 542 HSCT patients, 29 349 seropositive and 20 193 seronegative, were identified from the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation database. Cox multivariate models were fitted to estimate the effect of donor CMV serological status on outcome. Seronegative patients receiving seropositive unrelated-donor grafts had decreased overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.21; P < .0001) compared with seronegative donors, whereas no difference was seen in patients receiving HLA-matched sibling grafts. Seropositive patients receiving grafts from seropositive unrelated donors had improved overall survival (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, .86-.98; P < .01) compared with seronegative donors, if they had received myeloablative conditioning. This effect was absent when they received reduced-intensity conditioning. No effect was seen in patients grafted from HLA-identical sibling donors. The same association was found if the study was limited to patients receiving transplants from the year 2000 onward. We confirm the negative impact on overall survival if a CMV-seropositive unrelated donor is selected for a CMV-seronegative patient. For a CMV-seropositive patient, our data support selecting a CMV-seropositive donor if the patient receives a myeloablative conditioning regimen. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dynamic prediction of patient outcomes during ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

PubMed

Kim, Joonghee; Kim, Kyuseok; Callaway, Clifton W; Doh, Kibbeum; Choi, Jungho; Park, Jongdae; Jo, You Hwan; Lee, Jae Hyuk

2017-02-01

The probability of the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and subsequent favourable outcomes changes dynamically during advanced cardiac life support (ACLS). We sought to model these changes using time-to-event analysis in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. Adult (≥18 years old), non-traumatic OHCA patients without prehospital ROSC were included. Utstein variables and initial arterial blood gas measurements were used as predictors. The incidence rate of ROSC during the first 30min of ACLS in the emergency department (ED) was modelled using spline-based parametric survival analysis. Conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC (1-week and 1-month survival and 6-month neurologic recovery) were modelled using multivariable logistic regression. The ROSC and conditional probability models were then combined to estimate the likelihood of achieving ROSC and subsequent outcomes by providing k additional minutes of effort. A total of 727 patients were analyzed. The incidence rate of ROSC increased rapidly until the 10th minute of ED ACLS, and it subsequently decreased. The conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC were also dependent on the duration of resuscitation with odds ratios for 1-week and 1-month survival and neurologic recovery of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.96, p<0.001), 0.93 (0.88-0.97, p=0.001) and 0.93 (0.87-0.99, p=0.031) per 1-min increase, respectively. Calibration testing of the combined models showed good correlation between mean predicted probability and actual prevalence. The probability of ROSC and favourable subsequent outcomes changed according to a multiphasic pattern over the first 30min of ACLS, and modelling of the dynamic changes was feasible. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

What shapes fitness costs of reproduction in long-lived iteroparous species? A case study on the Alpine ibex.

PubMed

Garnier, Alexandre; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Gauthier, Dominique; Besnard, Aurélien

2016-01-01

The fitness costs of reproduction can be masked by individual differences, and may only become apparent during adverse environmental conditions. Individual differences, however, are usually assessed by reproductive success, so how fitness costs are influenced by the interplay between the environmental context and overall individual differences requires further investigation. Here, we evaluated fitness costs of reproduction based on 15 yr of monitoring of individual Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) during a period when the population was affected by a severe disease outbreak (pneumonia). We quantified fitness costs using a novel multi-event capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling approach that accounted for uncertainty in reproductive status to estimate the survival and reproductive success of female ibex while also accounting for overall individual heterogeneity using mixture models. Our results show that the ability of females to reproduce was highly heterogeneous. In particular, one group including 76% of females had a much higher probability of giving birth annually (between 0.66 and 0.77, depending on the previous reproductive status) than females of the second group (24% of females, between 0 and 0.05 probability of giving birth annually). Low reproductive costs in terms of future reproduction occurred and were independent of the pneumonia outbreak. There was no survival cost of reproduction either before or after the epizootic, but the cost was high during the epizootic. Our findings indicate that adverse environmental conditions, such as disease outbreaks, may lead to survival costs of reproduction in long-lived species and select against females that have a high reproductive effort. Thereby, the occurrence of adverse conditions increases the diversity of reproductive tactics within a population.

A population-based survival assessment of categorizing level III and IV rural hospitals as trauma centers.

PubMed

Arthur, Melanie; Newgard, Craig D; Mullins, Richard J; Diggs, Brian S; Stone, Judith V; Adams, Annette L; Hedges, Jerris R

2009-01-01

Patients injured in rural areas are hypothesized to have improved outcomes if statewide trauma systems categorize rural hospitals as Level III and IV trauma centers, though evidence to support this belief is sparse. To determine if there is improved survival among injured patients hospitalized in states that categorize rural hospitals as trauma centers. We analyzed a retrospective cohort of injured patients included in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 1997 to 1999. We used generalized estimating equations to compare survival among injured patients hospitalized in states that categorize rural hospitals as Level III and IV trauma centers versus those that do not. Multivariable models adjusted for important confounders, including patient demographics, co-morbid conditions, injury severity, and hospital-level factors. There were 257,044 admitted patients from 7 states with a primary injury diagnosis, of whom 64,190 (25%) had a "serious" index injury, 32,763 (13%) were seriously injured (by ICD-9 codes), and 12,435 (5%) were very seriously injured (by ICD-9 codes). There was no survival benefit associated with rural hospital categorization among all patients with a primary injury diagnosis or for those with specific index injuries. However, seriously injured patients (by ICD-9 codes) had improved survival when hospitalized in a categorizing state (OR for mortality 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53-0.97; OR for very seriously injured 0.68, 95% CI 0.52-0.90). There was no survival benefit to categorizing rural hospitals among a broad, heterogeneous group of hospitalized patients with a primary injury diagnosis; however the most seriously injured patients did have increased survival in such states.

46 CFR 172.150 - Survival conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Subchapter O of This Chapter § 172.150 Survival conditions. A tankship is presumed to survive assumed damage...) Each submerged opening must be weathertight. (d) Progressive flooding. Pipes, ducts or tunnels within the assumed extent of damage must be either— (1) Equipped with arrangements such as stop check valves...

46 CFR 172.150 - Survival conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Subchapter O of This Chapter § 172.150 Survival conditions. A tankship is presumed to survive assumed damage...) Each submerged opening must be weathertight. (d) Progressive flooding. Pipes, ducts or tunnels within the assumed extent of damage must be either— (1) Equipped with arrangements such as stop check valves...

46 CFR 172.150 - Survival conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Subchapter O of This Chapter § 172.150 Survival conditions. A tankship is presumed to survive assumed damage...) Each submerged opening must be weathertight. (d) Progressive flooding. Pipes, ducts or tunnels within the assumed extent of damage must be either— (1) Equipped with arrangements such as stop check valves...

The central arctic caribou herd

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cameron, Raymond D.; Smith, Walter T.; White, Robert G.; Griffith, Brad; Douglas, David C.; Reynolds, Patricia E.; Rhode, E.B.

2002-01-01

From the mid-1970s through the mid-1980s, use of calving and summer habitats by Central Arctic herd caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) declined near petroleum development infrastructure on Alaska's arctic coastal plain (Cameron et al. 1979; Cameron and Whitten 1980, Smith and Cameron 1983. Whitten and Cameron 1983a, 1985: Dau and Cameron 1986).With surface development continuing to expand westward from the Prudhoe Bay petroleum development area (Fig. 4.1), concerns arose that the resultant cumulative losses of habitat would eventually reduce productivity of the caribou herd. Specifically, reduced access of adult females to preferred foraging areas might adversely affect growth and fattening (Elison et al. 1986. Clough et al. 1987), in turn depressing calf production (Dauphiné 1976, Thomas 1982, Reimers 1983, White 1983, Eloranta and Nieminen 1986. Lenvik et al. 1988, Thomas and Kiliaan 1991) and survival (Haukioja and Salovaara 1978, Rognmo et al. 1983, Skogland 1984, Eloranta and Nieminen 1986, Adamczewski et al. 1987).Those concerns, though justified in theory, lacked empirical support. With industrial development in arctic Alaska virtually unprecedented, there was little basis for predicting the extent and duration of habitat loss, much less the secondary short- and long-term effects on the well-being of a particular caribou herd.Furthermore, despite a general acceptance that body condition and fecundity of the females are functionally related for reindeer and caribou, it seemed unlikely that any single model would apply to all subspecies of Rangifer, and perhaps not even within a subspecies in different geographic regions. We therefore lacked a complete understanding of the behavioral responses of arctic caribou to industrial development, the manner in which access to habitats might be affected, and how changes in habitat use might translate into measurable effects on fecundity and herd growth rate.Our study addressed the following objectives: 1) estimate variation in the size and productivity of the Central Arctic herd; 2) estimate changes in the distribution and movements of Central Arctic herd caribou in relation to the oil field development; 3) estimate the relationships between body condition and reproductive performance of female Central Arctic herd caribou, and 4) compare the body condition, reproductive success, and offspring survival of females under disturbance-free conditions (i.e., east of the Sagavanirktok River) with the status of those exposed to petroleum-related development (i.e., west of the Sagavanirktok River).

Merriam's turkey poult survival in the Black Hills, South Dakota

Treesearch

Chad P. Lehman; Lester D. Flake; Mark A. Rumble; Daniel J. Thompson

2008-01-01

We investigated poult survival from hatching to 4 wks of age for Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) poults in the southern Black Hills, South Dakota. We estimated survival from 841 poults reared by 57 radio-marked wild turkeys (n = 52 adult females, n = 5 yearling females). Survival of poults to 4 wks posthatch averaged 33...

Final results from a defibrotide treatment-IND study for patients with hepatic veno-occlusive disease/sinusoidal obstruction syndrome.

PubMed

Kernan, Nancy A; Grupp, Stephan; Smith, Angela R; Arai, Sally; Triplett, Brandon; Antin, Joseph H; Lehmann, Leslie; Shore, Tsiporah; Ho, Vincent T; Bunin, Nancy; Iacobelli, Massimo; Liang, Wei; Hume, Robin; Tappe, William; Soiffer, Robert; Richardson, Paul

2018-05-16

Hepatic veno-occlusive disease/sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (VOD/SOS) is a potentially life-threatening complication of haematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) conditioning and chemotherapy. Defibrotide is approved for treatment of hepatic VOD/SOS with pulmonary or renal dysfunction [i.e., multi-organ dysfunction (MOD)] after HSCT in the United States and severe VOD/SOS after HSCT in patients aged older than 1 month in the European Union. Defibrotide was available as an investigational drug by an expanded-access treatment programme (T-IND; NCT00628498). In the completed T-IND, the Kaplan-Meier estimated Day +100 survival for 1000 patients with documented defibrotide treatment after HSCT was 58·9% [95% confidence interval (CI), 55·7-61·9%]. Day +100 survival was also analysed by age and MOD status, and post hoc analyses were performed to determine Day +100 survival by transplant type, timing of VOD/SOS onset (≤21 or >21 days) and timing of defibrotide treatment initiation after VOD/SOS diagnosis. Day +100 survival in paediatric patients was 67·9% (95% CI, 63·8-71·6%) and 47·1% (95% CI, 42·3-51·8%) in adults. All patient subgroups without MOD had higher Day +100 survival than those with MOD; earlier defibrotide initiation was also associated with higher Day +100 survival. The safety profile of defibrotide in the completed T-IND study was similar to previous reports. © 2018 The Authors. British Journal of Haematology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relationship of external fish condition to pathogen prevalence and out-migration survival in juvenile steelhead

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetter, N.J.; Evans, A.F.; Roby, D.D.; Collis, K.; Hawbecker, M.; Sandford, B.P.; Thompson, D.E.; Loge, F.J.

2011-01-01

Understanding how the external condition of juvenile salmonids is associated with internal measures of health and subsequent out-migration survival can be valuable for population monitoring programs. This study investigated the use of a rapid, nonlethal, external examination to assess the condition of run-of-the-river juvenile steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss migrating from the Snake River to the Pacific Ocean. We compared the external condition (e.g., body injuries, descaling, external signs of disease, fin damage, and ectoparasite infestations) with (1) the internal condition of a steelhead as measured by the presence of selected pathogens detected by histopathology and polymerase chain reaction analysis and (2) out-migration survival through the Snake and Columbia rivers as determined by passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag technology. The results from steelhead captured and euthanized (n = 222) at Lower Monumental Dam on the lower Snake River in 2008 indicated that external condition was significantly correlated with selected measures of internal condition. The odds of testing positive for a pathogen were 39.2, 24.3, and 5.6 times greater for steelhead with severe or moderate external signs of disease or more than 20% descaling, respectively. Capture-recapture models of 22,451 PIT-tagged steelhead released at Lower Monumental Dam in 2007-2009 indicated that external condition was significantly correlated with juvenile survival. The odds of outmigration survival for steelhead with moderate or severe external signs of disease, more than 20% descaling, or severe fin damage were 5.7, 4.9, 1.6, and 1.3 times lower, respectively, than those for steelhead without these external conditions. This study effectively demonstrated that specific measures of external condition were associated with both the internal condition and out-migration survival of juvenile steelhead. ?? American Fisheries Society 2011.

Assessing juvenile native fish demographic responses to a steady flow experiment in a large regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finch, Colton G.; Pine, William E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Dodrill, Michael J.; Yard, Michael D.; Gerig, Brandon S.; Coggins,, Lewis G.; Korman, Josh

2016-01-01

The Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, is part of an adaptive management programme which optimizes dam operations to improve various resources in the downstream ecosystem within Grand Canyon. Understanding how populations of federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha respond to these dam operations is a high priority. Here, we test hypotheses concerning temporal variation in juvenile humpback chub apparent survival rates and abundance by comparing estimates between hydropeaking and steady discharge regimes over a 3-year period (July 2009–July 2012). The most supported model ignored flow type (steady vs hydropeaking) and estimated a declining trend in daily apparent survival rate across years (99.90%, 99.79% and 99.67% for 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively). Corresponding abundance of juvenile humpback chub increased temporally; open population model estimates ranged from 615 to 2802 individuals/km, and closed model estimates ranged from 94 to 1515 individuals/km. These changes in apparent survival and abundance may reflect broader trends, or simply represent inter-annual variation. Important findings include (i) juvenile humpback chub are currently surviving and recruiting in the mainstem Colorado River with increasing abundance; (ii) apparent survival does not benefit from steady fall discharges from Glen Canyon Dam; and (iii) direct assessment of demographic parameters for juvenile endangered fish are possible and can rapidly inform management actions in regulated rivers.

US-guided percutaneous microwave ablation versus open radical nephrectomy for small renal cell carcinoma: intermediate-term results.

PubMed

Yu, Jie; Liang, Ping; Yu, Xiao-ling; Cheng, Zhi-gang; Han, Zhi-yu; Zhang, Xu; Dong, Jun; Mu, Meng-juan; Li, Xin; Wang, Xiao-hui

2014-03-01

To review intermediate-term clinical outcomes of microwave ablation (MWA) compared with open radial nephrectomy (ORN) in small renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients and to identify prognostic factors associated with two techniques. This retrospective study was institutional review board-approved. A total of 163 patients (127 men and 36 women) with small RCC (≤4 cm) were included from April 2006 to March 2012. Sixty-five patients underwent MWA and 98 patients underwent ORN. Survival, recurrence, and renal function changes were compared between the two groups. Effect of changes in key parameters (ie, overall survival, RCC-related survival, and metastasis-free survival) was statistically analyzed with the log-rank test. Although overall survival after MWA was lower than that after ORN (P = .002), RCC-related survival was comparable to ORN (P = .78). Estimated 5-year overall survival rates were 67.3% after MWA and 97.8% after ORN; for RCC-related survival, estimated 5-year rates were 97.1% after MWA and 97.8% after ORN. There was one local tumor recurrence 32 months after MWA and none after ORN. Major complication rates were comparable (P = .81) between the two techniques (MWA, 2.5% vs ORN, 3.1%). The MWA group had less surgical time (P < .001), estimated blood loss (P < .001), and postoperative hospitalization (P < .001). Multivariate analysis showed age (P = .014), tumor type (P = .003), postoperative urea nitrogen (P = .042), comorbid disease (P = .005), and treatment modality (P < .001) may become survival rate predictors. In intermediate term, ultrasonographically guided percutaneous MWA and ORN provide comparable results in oncologic outcomes. MWA appears to be a safe and effective technique for management of small RCC in patients with little loss of renal function. RSNA, 2013

Survival and metamorphosis of larval sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) residing in Lakes Michigan and Huron near river mouths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Nicholas S.; Brenden, Travis O.; Swink, William D.; Lipps, Mathew A.

2016-01-01

Although population demographics of larval lampreys in streams have been studied extensively, demographics in lake environments have not. Here, we estimated survival and rates of metamorphosis for larval sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) populations residing in the Great Lakes near river mouths (hereafter termed lentic areas). Tagged larvae were stocked and a Bayesian multi-state tag-recovery model was used to investigate population parameters associated with tag recovery, including survival and metamorphosis probabilities. Compared to previous studies of larvae in streams, larval growth in lentic areas was substantially slower (Brody growth coefficient = 0.00132; estimate based on the recovery of six tagged larvae), survival was slightly greater (annual survival = 63%), and the length at which 50% of the larvae would be expected to metamorphose was substantially shorter (126 mm). Stochastic simulations were used to estimate the production of parasitic stage (juvenile) sea lamprey from a hypothetical population of larvae in a lentic environment. Production of juvenile sea lamprey was substantial because, even though larval growth in these environments was slow relative to stream environments, survival was high and length at metamorphosis was less. However, estimated production of juvenile sea lamprey was less for the lentic environment than for similar simulations for river environments where larvae grew faster. In circumstances where the cost to kill a larva with lampricide was equal and control funds are limited, sea lamprey control effort may be best directed toward larvae in streams with fast-growing larvae, because stream-produced larvae will most likely contribute to juvenile sea lamprey populations.

Evaluating growth of the Porcupine Caribou Herd using a stochastic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, Noreen E.; Griffith, Brad; McCabe, Thomas R.

1995-01-01

Estimates of the relative effects of demographic parameters on population rates of change, and of the level of natural variation in these parameters, are necessary to address potential effects of perturbations on populations. We used a stochastic model, based on survival and reproduction estimates of the Porcupine Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) Herd (PCH), during 1983-89 and 1989-92 to obtain distributions of potential population rates of change (r). The distribution of r produced by 1,000 trajectories of our simulation model (1983-89, r̄ = 0.013; 1989-92, r̄ = 0.003) encompassed the rate of increase calculated from an independent series of photo-survey data over the same years (1983-89, r = 0.048; 1989-92, r = -0.035). Changes in adult female survival had the largest effect on r, followed by changes in calf survival. We hypothesized that petroleum development on calving grounds, or changes in calving and post-calving habitats due to global climate change, would affect model input parameters. A decline in annual adult female survival from 0.871 to 0.847, or a decline in annual calf survival from 0.518 to 0.472, would be sufficient to cause a declining population, if all other input estimates remained the same. We then used these lower survival rates, in conjunction with our estimated amount of among-year variation, to determine a range of resulting population trajectories. Stochastic models can be used to better understand dynamics of populations, optimize sampling investment, and evaluate potential effects of various factors on population growth.

The impact of roads on the demography of grizzly bears in Alberta.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species.

The Impact of Roads on the Demography of Grizzly Bears in Alberta

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species. PMID:25532035

Multiple imputation for cure rate quantile regression with censored data.

PubMed

Wu, Yuanshan; Yin, Guosheng

2017-03-01

The main challenge in the context of cure rate analysis is that one never knows whether censored subjects are cured or uncured, or whether they are susceptible or insusceptible to the event of interest. Considering the susceptible indicator as missing data, we propose a multiple imputation approach to cure rate quantile regression for censored data with a survival fraction. We develop an iterative algorithm to estimate the conditionally uncured probability for each subject. By utilizing this estimated probability and Bernoulli sample imputation, we can classify each subject as cured or uncured, and then employ the locally weighted method to estimate the quantile regression coefficients with only the uncured subjects. Repeating the imputation procedure multiple times and taking an average over the resultant estimators, we obtain consistent estimators for the quantile regression coefficients. Our approach relaxes the usual global linearity assumption, so that we can apply quantile regression to any particular quantile of interest. We establish asymptotic properties for the proposed estimators, including both consistency and asymptotic normality. We conduct simulation studies to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed multiple imputation method and apply it to a lung cancer study as an illustration. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

A Simple Method for Evaluating Within Sample Prognostic Balance Achieved by Published Comorbidity Summary Measures.

PubMed

Egleston, Brian L; Uzzo, Robert G; Beck, J Robert; Wong, Yu-Ning

2015-08-01

To demonstrate how a researcher can investigate the appropriateness of a published comorbidity summary measure for use with a given sample. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results linked to Medicare claims data. We examined Kaplan-Meier estimated survival curves for four diseases within strata of a comorbidity summary measure, the Charlson Comorbidity Index. We identified individuals with early-stage kidney cancer diagnosed from 1995 to 2009. We recorded comorbidities present in the year before diagnosis. The use of many comorbidity summary measures is valid under appropriate conditions. One condition is that the relationships of the comorbidities with the outcome of interest in a researcher's own population are comparable to the relationships in a published algorithm's population. The original comorbidity weights from the Charlson Comorbidity Index seemed adequate for three of the diseases in our sample. We found evidence that the Charlson Comorbidity Index might underestimate the impact of one disease in our sample. Examination of survival curves within strata defined by a comorbidity summary measure can be a useful tool for determining whether a published method appropriately accounts for comorbidities. A comorbidity score is only as good as those variables included. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Escherichia coli Survival in, and Release from, White-Tailed Deer Feces

PubMed Central

Fry, Jessica; Ives, Rebecca L.; Rose, Joan B.

2014-01-01

White-tailed deer are an important reservoir for pathogens that can contribute a large portion of microbial pollution in fragmented agricultural and forest landscapes. The scarcity of experimental data on survival of microorganisms in and release from deer feces makes prediction of their fate and transport less reliable and development of efficient strategies for environment protection more difficult. The goal of this study was to estimate parameters for modeling Escherichia coli survival in and release from deer (Odocoileus virginianus) feces. Our objectives were as follows: (i) to measure survival of E. coli in deer pellets at different temperatures, (ii) to measure kinetics of E. coli release from deer pellets at different rainfall intensities, and (iii) to estimate parameters of models describing survival and release of microorganisms from deer feces. Laboratory experiments were conducted to study E. coli survival in deer pellets at three temperatures and to estimate parameters of Chick's exponential model with temperature correction based on the Arrhenius equation. Kinetics of E. coli release from deer pellets were measured at two rainfall intensities and used to derive the parameters of Bradford-Schijven model of bacterial release. The results showed that parameters of the survival and release models obtained for E. coli in this study substantially differed from those obtained by using other source materials, e.g., feces of domestic animals and manures. This emphasizes the necessity of comprehensive studies of survival of naturally occurring populations of microorganisms in and release from wildlife animal feces in order to achieve better predictions of microbial fate and transport in fragmented agricultural and forest landscapes. PMID:25480751