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Sample records for conditions risk assessment

  1. Conditional risk assessment of adolescents' electronic cigarette perceptions.

    PubMed

    Chaffee, Benjamin W; Gansky, Stuart A; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie; Couch, Elizabeth T; Essex, Gwen; Walsh, Margaret M

    2015-05-01

    To adapt an established instrument for measuring adolescents' cigarette-related perceptions for new application with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). In this exploratory study, 104 male high school students (40% tobacco ever-users) estimated the probability of potential e-cigarette risks (eg, lung cancer) or benefits (eg, look cool). We calculated associations between risk/benefit composite scores, ever-use, and use intention for e-cigarettes, and analogously, for combustible cigarettes. E-cigarette ever-use was associated with lower perceived risks, with adjusted differences versus never-users greater for e-cigarettes than for cigarettes. Risk composite score was inversely associated, and benefit score positively associated, with e-cigarette ever-use and use intention. Conditional risk assessment characterized adolescents' perceived e-cigarette risk/benefit profile, with potential utility for risk-perception measurement in future studies.

  2. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  3. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  4. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  5. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  6. Probability surveys, conditional probability, and ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Paul, John F; Munns, Wayne R

    2011-06-01

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over broad geographic areas. Under certain conditions (including appropriate stratification of the sampled population, sufficient density of samples, and sufficient range of exposure levels paired with concurrent response values), this empirical approach provides estimates of risk using extant field-derived monitoring data. The monitoring data were used to prescribe the exposure field and to model the exposure-response relationship. We illustrate this approach by estimating risks to benthic communities from low dissolved oxygen (DO) in freshwater streams of the mid-Atlantic region and in estuaries of the Virginian Biogeographical Province of the United States. In both cases, the estimates of risk are consistent with the U.S. EPA's ambient water quality criteria for DO. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

  7. Meeting Report: Risk Assessment of Tamiflu Use Under Pandemic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Singer, Andrew C.; Howard, Bruce M.; Johnson, Andrew C.; Knowles, Chris J.; Jackman, Simon; Accinelli, Cesare; Caracciolo, Anna Barra; Bernard, Ian; Bird, Stephen; Boucard, Tatiana; Boxall, Alistair; Brian, Jayne V.; Cartmell, Elise; Chubb, Chris; Churchley, John; Costigan, Sandra; Crane, Mark; Dempsey, Michael J.; Dorrington, Bob; Ellor, Brian; Fick, Jerker; Holmes, John; Hutchinson, Tom; Karcher, Franz; Kelleher, Samuel L.; Marsden, Peter; Noone, Gerald; Nunn, Miles A.; Oxford, John; Rachwal, Tony; Roberts, Noel; Roberts, Mike; Saccà, Maria Ludovica; Sanders, Matthew; Straub, Jürg Oliver; Terry, Adrian; Thomas, Dean; Toovey, Stephen; Townsend, Rodney; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos; Watts, Chris

    2008-01-01

    On 3 October 2007, 40 participants with diverse expertise attended the workshop Tamiflu and the Environment: Implications of Use under Pandemic Conditions to assess the potential human health impact and environmental hazards associated with use of Tamiflu during an influenza pandemic. Based on the identification and risk-ranking of knowledge gaps, the consensus was that oseltamivir ethylester-phosphate (OE-P) and oseltamivir carboxylate (OC) were unlikely to pose an ecotoxicologic hazard to freshwater organisms. OC in river water might hasten the generation of OC-resistance in wildfowl, but this possibility seems less likely than the potential disruption that could be posed by OC and other pharmaceuticals to the operation of sewage treatment plants. The work-group members agreed on the following research priorities: a) available data on the ecotoxicology of OE-P and OC should be published; b) risk should be assessed for OC-contaminated river water generating OC-resistant viruses in wildfowl; c) sewage treatment plant functioning due to microbial inhibition by neuraminidase inhibitors and other antimicrobials used during a pandemic should be investigated; and d) realistic worst-case exposure scenarios should be developed. Additional modeling would be useful to identify localized areas within river catchments that might be prone to high pharmaceutical concentrations in sewage treatment plant effluent. Ongoing seasonal use of Tamiflu in Japan offers opportunities for researchers to assess how much OC enters and persists in the aquatic environment. PMID:19057712

  8. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Treesearch

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  9. Risk Assessment of Oil Pipeline Accidents in Special Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vtorushina, A. N.; Anishchenko, Y. V.; Nikonova, E. D.

    2017-05-01

    The present study identifies the main accidents’ factors and causes for oil pipeline located in Siberia and operated in special climatic conditions. Various types of pipeline accident scenarios were modeled. It is showed that the most dangerous scenarios are oil spills fire and oil vapor explosion due to the loss of piping integrity (rupture) of the pipeline’s section, laying on marshlands and oil spill on the water surface due to the loss of piping integrity (puncture). The most probable scenario is oil spills fire due to the loss of piping integrity (puncture) of the pipeline’s section, laying on dry lands and marshlands. To estimate the scenarios «event tree analysis» is used. Also such risk indexes as individual, societal, public and potential risks were determined.

  10. Urban Flood Risk Assessment Under Uncertain Conditions and Scarce Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Gaviria, E. M.; Botero-Fernandez, V.

    2015-12-01

    Flood risk management in small urban areas in Colombia has a great degree of uncertainty due to the low availability and quality of data, the non-existent personnel qualified in the collection and processing of data, and the insufficient information to evaluate the risk and vulnerability. It is because of this that two methods are developed: one for the generation of flood threat maps for different return periods combining historical, geomorphological, and hydrological hydraulic methods assisted by remote sensors and SIG through the use of data acquired through field campaigns, official hydrological networks, orthophotos, multitemporal topographic maps, and ASTER, STRM, and LiDAR images. And another method in which categorical variables are established, linking local physical, social, economical, environmental and political-institutional factors that are explored through different media such as reports, news, databases, transects, interviews, community workshops, and surveys conducted at homes. Such variables were included within an analysis of multiple correspondence to conduct a descriptive study of the exposure, susceptibility, and capacity conditions and to create a vulnerability index that was spatially plotted spatially on maps. The uncertainty is reduced in the measure in which local knowledge is used as a source of information acquisition, of validation of what already exists, and of calibration of the proposed methods. This research was applied to the urban centers of Caucasia (Antioquia) and Plato (Magdalena), which have been historically affected by slow flooding of the Magdalena and Cauca river, it being especially useful in the selection of best alternatives for risk management, planning for development, and land use management, with the possibility of replicating it to benefit other municipalities that experience the same reality.

  11. PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

  12. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.

  13. Model Development for Risk Assessment of Driving on Freeway under Rainy Weather Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Xiaonan; Wang, Chen; Chen, Shengdi; Lu, Jian

    2016-01-01

    Rainy weather conditions could result in significantly negative impacts on driving on freeways. However, due to lack of enough historical data and monitoring facilities, many regions are not able to establish reliable risk assessment models to identify such impacts. Given the situation, this paper provides an alternative solution where the procedure of risk assessment is developed based on drivers’ subjective questionnaire and its performance is validated by using actual crash data. First, an ordered logit model was developed, based on questionnaire data collected from Freeway G15 in China, to estimate the relationship between drivers’ perceived risk and factors, including vehicle type, rain intensity, traffic volume, and location. Then, weighted driving risk for different conditions was obtained by the model, and further divided into four levels of early warning (specified by colors) using a rank order cluster analysis. After that, a risk matrix was established to determine which warning color should be disseminated to drivers, given a specific condition. Finally, to validate the proposed procedure, actual crash data from Freeway G15 were compared with the safety prediction based on the risk matrix. The results show that the risk matrix obtained in the study is able to predict driving risk consistent with actual safety implications, under rainy weather conditions. PMID:26894434

  14. Multigenic condition risk assessment in direct-to-consumer genomic services.

    PubMed

    Swan, Melanie

    2010-05-01

    Gene carrier status and pharmacogenomic data may be detectable from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), but SNP-based research concerning multigenic common disease such as diabetes, cancers, and cardiovascular disease is an emerging field. The many SNPs and loci that may relate to common disease have not yet been comprehensively identified and understood scientifically. In the interim, direct-to-consumer (DTC) genomic companies have forged ahead in developing composite risk interpretations for multigenic conditions. It is useful to understand how variance in risk interpretation may arise. A comprehensive study was conducted to analyze the 213 conditions covered by the 5 identifiable genome-wide DTC genomic companies, and the total SNPs (401) and loci (224) assessed in the 20 common disease conditions with the greatest overlapping coverage. Variance in multigenic condition risk interpretation can be explained by differences in the average lifetime risk assigned to similar underlying populations, the loci and SNPs selected for analysis, and the quantitative risk assignment methodologies used by DTC genomic companies. At present, multigenic condition analysis is a complicated process. DTC genomic companies have made laudable efforts to deliver risk predictions, but greater consistency is needed for the long-term validity, utility, and credibility of the sector.

  15. The Validity and Utility of the California Family Risk Assessment under Practice Conditions in the Field: A Prospective Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Will L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Analysis of the validity and implementation of a child maltreatment actuarial risk assessment model, the California Family Risk Assessment (CFRA). Questions addressed: (1) Is there evidence of the validity of the CFRA under field operating conditions? (2) Do actuarial risk assessment results influence child welfare workers' service…

  16. The Validity and Utility of the California Family Risk Assessment under Practice Conditions in the Field: A Prospective Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Will L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Analysis of the validity and implementation of a child maltreatment actuarial risk assessment model, the California Family Risk Assessment (CFRA). Questions addressed: (1) Is there evidence of the validity of the CFRA under field operating conditions? (2) Do actuarial risk assessment results influence child welfare workers' service…

  17. Current Conditions Risk Assessment for the 300-FF-5 Groundwater Operable Unit

    SciTech Connect

    Miley, Terri B.; Bunn, Amoret L.; Napier, Bruce A.; Peterson, Robert E.; Becker, James M.

    2007-11-01

    This report updates a baseline risk assessment for the 300 Area prepared in 1994. The update includes consideration of changes in contaminants of interest and in the environment that have occurred during the period of interim remedial action, i.e., 1996 to the present, as well as the sub-regions, for which no initial risk assessments have been conducted. In 1996, a record of decision (ROD) stipulated interim remedial action for groundwater affected by releases from 300 Area sources, as follows: (a) continued monitoring of groundwater that is contaminated above health-based levels to ensure that concentrations continue to decrease, and (b) institutional controls to ensure that groundwater use is restricted to prevent unacceptable exposure to groundwater contamination. In 2000, the groundwater beneath the two outlying sub-regions was added to the operable unit. In 2001, the first 5-year review of the ROD found that the interim remedy and remedial action objectives were still appropriate, although the review called for additional characterization activities. This report includes a current conditions baseline ecological and human health risk assessment using maximum concentrations in the environmental media of the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit and downstream conditions at the City of Richland, Washington. The scope for this assessment includes only current measured environmental concentrations and current use scenarios. Future environmental concentrations and future land uses are not considered in this assessment.

  18. Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

    2012-04-01

    The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

  19. Incorporating Equipment Condition Assessment in Risk Monitors for Advanced Small Modular Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Coble, Jamie B.; Coles, Garill A.; Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep

    2013-10-01

    Advanced small modular reactors (aSMRs) can complement the current fleet of large light-water reactors in the USA for baseload and peak demand power production and process heat applications (e.g., water desalination, shale oil extraction, hydrogen production). The day-to-day costs of aSMRs are expected to be dominated by operations and maintenance (O&M); however, the effect of diverse operating missions and unit modularity on O&M is not fully understood. These costs could potentially be reduced by optimized scheduling, with risk-informed scheduling of maintenance, repair, and replacement of equipment. Currently, most nuclear power plants have a “living” probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which reflects the as-operated, as-modified plant and combine event probabilities with population-based probability of failure (POF) for key components. “Risk monitors” extend the PRA by incorporating the actual and dynamic plant configuration (equipment availability, operating regime, environmental conditions, etc.) into risk assessment. In fact, PRAs are more integrated into plant management in today’s nuclear power plants than at any other time in the history of nuclear power. However, population-based POF curves are still used to populate fault trees; this approach neglects the time-varying condition of equipment that is relied on during standard and non-standard configurations. Equipment condition monitoring techniques can be used to estimate the component POF. Incorporating this unit-specific estimate of POF in the risk monitor can provide a more accurate estimate of risk in different operating and maintenance configurations. This enhanced risk assessment will be especially important for aSMRs that have advanced component designs, which don’t have an available operating history to draw from, and often use passive design features, which present challenges to PRA. This paper presents the requirements and technical gaps for developing a framework to integrate unit

  20. Risk assessment of DFD meat due to pre-slaughter conditions in pigs.

    PubMed

    Guàrdia, M D; Estany, J; Balasch, S; Oliver, M A; Gispert, M; Diestre, A

    2010-04-22

    A polychotomous logistic regression model was used to identify and assess the risk factors for pork becoming dark, firm and dry meat (DFD). A total of 116 deliveries, comprising 3075 commercial pigs delivered from different farms to five commercial Spanish pig abattoirs were surveyed. The DFD condition was described as an ordinal response variable (normal, moderate and serious) based on measurements of pH(24) in the Semimembranosus muscle. The abattoir, the floor of the lorry, the season, the gender, and the stocking density during transportation influenced the risk of DFD, as well as on-farm fasting time, lairage time and estimated carcass lean content. No effect of the RYR1 gene in the risk of DFD was found. Abattoirs should be especially careful with females slaughtered in winter, where the risk of serious DFD is 4.6% higher than with males slaughtered in summer. The risk of DFD increased with high stocking density and lairage time, and with on-farm fasting times longer than 22h. Our results revealed that lowering the stocking density from 0.37 to 0.50m(2) per 100kg pig during transport would increase the risk of DFD pork by 11%. Copyright © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Severe Pulmonary Toxicity After Myeloablative Conditioning Using Total Body Irradiation: An Assessment of Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Kelsey, Chris R.; Horwitz, Mitchell E.; Chino, Junzo P.; Craciunescu, Oana; Steffey, Beverly; Folz, Rodney J.; Chao, Nelson J.; Rizzieri, David A.; Marks, Lawrence B.

    2011-11-01

    Purpose: To assess factors associated with severe pulmonary toxicity after myeloablative conditioning using total body irradiation (TBI) followed by allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Methods and Materials: A total of 101 adult patients who underwent TBI-based myeloablative conditioning for hematologic malignancies at Duke University between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. TBI was combined with high-dose cyclophosphamide, melphalan, fludarabine, or etoposide, depending on the underlying disease. Acute pulmonary toxicity, occurring within 90 days of transplantation, was scored using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Actuarial overall survival and the cumulative incidence of acute pulmonary toxicity were calculated via the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using a log-rank test. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to assess factors independently associated with acute severe pulmonary toxicity. Results: The 90-day actuarial risk of developing severe (Grade 3-5) pulmonary toxicity was 33%. Actuarial survival at 90 days was 49% in patients with severe pulmonary toxicity vs. 94% in patients without (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, the number of prior chemotherapy regimens was the only factor independently associated with development of severe pulmonary toxicity (odds ratio, 2.7 per regimen). Conclusions: Severe acute pulmonary toxicity is prevalent after TBI-based myeloablative conditioning regimens, occurring in approximately 33% of patients. The number of prior chemotherapy regimens appears to be an important risk factor.

  2. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  3. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  4. Technical Needs for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Equipment Condition Assessment for Advanced Small Modular Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Coble, Jamie B.; Coles, Garill A.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Meyer, Ryan M.; Berglin, Eric J.; Wootan, David W.; Mitchell, Mark R.

    2013-04-04

    Advanced small modular reactors (aSMRs) can provide the United States with a safe, sustainable, and carbon-neutral energy source. The controllable day-to-day costs of aSMRs are expected to be dominated by operation and maintenance costs. Health and condition assessment coupled with online risk monitors can potentially enhance affordability of aSMRs through optimized operational planning and maintenance scheduling. Currently deployed risk monitors are an extension of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For complex engineered systems like nuclear power plants, PRA systematically combines event likelihoods and the probability of failure (POF) of key components, so that when combined with the magnitude of possible adverse consequences to determine risk. Traditional PRA uses population-based POF information to estimate the average plant risk over time. Currently, most nuclear power plants have a PRA that reflects the as-operated, as-modified plant; this model is updated periodically, typically once a year. Risk monitors expand on living PRA by incorporating changes in the day-by-day plant operation and configuration (e.g., changes in equipment availability, operating regime, environmental conditions). However, population-based POF (or population- and time-based POF) is still used to populate fault trees. Health monitoring techniques can be used to establish condition indicators and monitoring capabilities that indicate the component-specific POF at a desired point in time (or over a desired period), which can then be incorporated in the risk monitor to provide a more accurate estimate of the plant risk in different configurations. This is particularly important for active systems, structures, and components (SSCs) proposed for use in aSMR designs. These SSCs may differ significantly from those used in the operating fleet of light-water reactors (or even in LWR-based SMR designs). Additionally, the operating characteristics of aSMRs can present significantly different

  5. Environmental risk assessment of GE plants under low-exposure conditions.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Andrew; Devos, Yann; Raybould, Alan; Bigelow, Patrick; Gray, Alan

    2014-12-01

    The requirement for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically engineered (GE) plants prior to large scale or commercial introduction into the environment is well established in national laws and regulations, as well as in international agreements. Since the first introductions of GE plants in commercial agriculture in the 1990s, a nearly universal paradigm has emerged for conducting these assessments based on a few guiding principles. These include the concept of case-by-case assessment, the use of comparative assessments, and a focus of the ERA on characteristics of the plant, the introduced trait, and the receiving environment as well as the intended use. In practice, however, ERAs for GE plants have frequently focused on achieving highly detailed characterizations of potential hazards at the expense of consideration of the relevant levels of exposure. This emphasis on exhaustive hazard characterization can lead to great difficulties when applied to ERA for GE plants under low-exposure conditions. This paper presents some relevant considerations for conducting an ERA for a GE plant in a low-exposure scenario in the context of the generalized ERA paradigm, building on discussions and case studies presented during a session at ISBGMO 12.

  6. An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Coles, Garill A.; Bonebrake, Christopher A.; Ivans, William J.; Wootan, David W.; Mitchell, Mark R.

    2014-07-18

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic

  7. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  8. Creation and validation of a condition-specific venous thromboembolism risk assessment tool for ventral hernia repair.

    PubMed

    Pannucci, Christopher J; Basta, Marten N; Fischer, John P; Kovach, Stephen J

    2015-11-01

    We used the database of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to (1) identify risk factors for 30-day venous thromboembolism (VTE) after ventral hernia repair (VHR) and (2) to create and validate a condition-specific assessment tool for the risk of VTE. Open and laparoscopic VHR patients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program were identified using Current Procedural Terminology code. The occurrence of VTE, including deep-venous thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolus, within 30 days postoperatively was the primary outcome. Regression-based analysis and subsequent bootstrap analysis created a weighted VTE risk assessment model (RAM) for ventral hernia repair. The weighted RAM was used to risk-stratify patients for both 30-day VTE risk and 30-day risk for medical and surgical complications. Data for 113,873 hernia repair patients were obtained; 30-day deep-venous thrombosis, pulmonary embolus, and VTE rates were 0.59%, 0.43%, and 0.92%, respectively. The average time to VTE was 10.8 days. A 14-factor, weighted RAM was created. The weighted risk score identified a 25-fold variability (from 0.20 to 4.97%) in VTE risk among the overall VHR population. Although created to risk-stratify for VTE, the risk score also risk-stratified for 30-day medical and surgical complications, inpatient duration of stay, and 30-day mortality. The 30-day VTE risk after VHR is 0.92%, but a 25-fold variability in VTE risk exists among the overall hernia population. We demonstrate that a weighted VTE RAM quantifies VTE risk among the population undergoing ventral hernia repair, and that VTE risk score can also be used to risk-stratify for 30-day medical and surgical complications as well as mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. [Assessment of the significance of climatogeographic conditions as health risk factors].

    PubMed

    Rakhmanov, R S; Gadzhiibragimov, D A; Medzhikova, M A; Kudriavtseva, O A

    2010-01-01

    Under the conditions of hot and mountain-continental climate, the morbidity rates in the inhabitants were estimated to be significantly lower than those in young men who had not been acclimatized or adapted to living conditions and in non-acclimatized men. A role of individual physical environmental factors (temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, average and maximum air speed) and integral exposure by the wind chill index (a combined impact of an air speed and ambient temperature) as risk factors to human health was defined, The mountain-continental climate showed a relationship of the influence of these factors to habitation at different altitudes above sea level.

  10. Comparison of recreational health risks associated with surfing and swimming in dry weather and post-storm conditions at Southern California beaches using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).

    PubMed

    Tseng, Linda Y; Jiang, Sunny C

    2012-05-01

    Southern California is an increasingly urbanized hotspot for surfing, thus it is of great interest to assess the human illness risks associated with this popular ocean recreational water sport from exposure to fecal bacteria contaminated coastal waters. Quantitative microbial risk assessments were applied to eight popular Southern California beaches using readily available enterococcus and fecal coliform data and dose-response models to compare health risks associated with surfing during dry weather and storm conditions. The results showed that the level of gastrointestinal illness risks from surfing post-storm events was elevated, with the probability of exceeding the US EPA health risk guideline up to 28% of the time. The surfing risk was also elevated in comparison with swimming at the same beach due to ingestion of greater volume of water. The study suggests that refinement of dose-response model, improving monitoring practice and better surfer behavior surveillance will improve the risk estimation.

  11. Dissipation pattern and risk quotients assessment of amisulbrom in Korean melon cultivated in plastic house conditions.

    PubMed

    Kabir, Md Humayun; Abd El-Aty, A M; Rahman, Md Musfiqur; Chung, Hyung Suk; Lee, Han Sol; Park, Sun-Hyang; Hacımüftüoğlu, Fazil; Chang, Byung-Joon; Shin, Ho-Chul; Shim, Jae-Han

    2017-06-01

    Amisulbrom formulated as suspension concentrate was applied at the rate recommended for Korean melon to determine the dissipation pattern (at two different sites), the pre-harvest residue limit (PHRL), and risk assessments. Samples collected over 10 days were extracted using liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) and cleaned up with solid-phase extraction (SPE) Florisil cartridge. Residual concentrations were determined using liquid chromatography-ultraviolet detector (LC-UVD) and confirmed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The standard showed good instrument response linearity with a correlation coefficient (R (2)) = 0.9999, and the recovery ranged from 87.5 to 93.7%. The dissipation half-life calculated from two different sites were found to be 7.0 and 8.8 days for sites 1 and 2, respectively. A PHRL graph constructed from the data indicated that if the residue levels were less than 0.55-0.59 mg/kg 3 days before harvest or less than 0.61-0.74 mg/kg 7 days before harvest, then they would be lower than the maximum residue limits (MRLs) at harvest. Risk assessments showed that the risk quotient (RQ) was 4.39-3.47% at 0 day, declined to 1.53-1.63% at 10 days. Therefore, the current data indicate that the amisulbrom can be applied safely to Korean melon; hence, it is unlikely to induce adverse health effects in consumers.

  12. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  13. Digital mapping of corrosion risk in coastal urban areas using remote sensing and structural condition assessment: case study in cyprus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neocleous, Kyriacos; Christofe, Andreas; Agapiou, Athos; Evagorou, Evagoras; Themistocleous, Kyriacos; Hadjimitsis, Diofantos

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric corrosion is one of the main factors leading to performance deterioration of reinforced concrete buildings; and, hence, periodic structural condition monitoring is required to assess and repair the adverse effects of corrosion. However, this can become a cumbersome and expensive task to undertake for large populations of buildings, scattered in large urban areas. To optimize the use of available resources, appropriate tools are required for the assessment of corrosion risk of reinforced concrete construction. This paper proposes a framework for the production of digital corrosion risk maps for urban areas; Cyprus was used as a case study. This framework explored multi-temporal satellite remote sensing data from the Landsat sensors as well as corrosion risk factors derived from the results of a recently completed research project, entitled "STEELCOR". This framework was used to develop two corrosion risk scenarios within Geographical Information Systems, and to produce corrosion risk maps for three coastal cities of Cyprus. The thematic maps indicated that, for slight corrosion damage, the distance of reinforced concrete buildings from the coast was more influential than the building age. While, for significant corrosion damage, the maps indicated that the age of RC buildings was more influential than the distance from the coast.

  14. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

    2014-05-01

    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  15. Predictive value of risk assessment scores in patients with hematologic malignancies undergoing reduced-intensity conditioning allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Wataru; Ogusa, Eriko; Matsumoto, Kenji; Maruta, Atsuo; Ishigatsubo, Yoshiaki; Kanamori, Heiwa

    2014-09-01

    Reduced-intensity conditioning allogeneic stem cell transplantation (RIC allo-SCT) is associated with less toxicity and is used for older patients. We retrospectively studied the predictive value of two risk assessment scores, which were the hematopoietic cell transplantation-specific comorbidity index (HCT-CI) and the pre-transplantation assessment of mortality (PAM) score, for assessing the outcome of RIC allo-SCT. Seventy-eight patients underwent transplantation between 2005 and 2013 at a single institution. RIC was performed with fludarabine and melphalan with/without total body irradiation. The 3-year overall survival of patients with an HCT-CI >3 was significantly worse than that of patients with an HCT-CI 0-3 (31.6% vs. 59.6%, P = 0.020). Also, the 3-year overall survival of patients with a PAM score >24 was significantly worse than that of those with a PAM score ≤24 (29.2% vs. 61.4%, P = 0.005). The present findings suggest that changing the cut-off values of these risk assessment scores can improve prediction of outcomes in patients receiving RIC allo-SCT with this conditioning regimen and we need validation by large-scale study with other regimens. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Risk Assessment and Monitoring of Stored CO2 in Organic Rocks Under Non-Equilibrium Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Malhotra, Vivak

    2014-06-30

    cores, which were pressurized with high pressure CO2, determine the fate of sequestered CO2 in these cores. Our results suggested that Illinois bituminous coal in its unperturbed state, i.e., when not pressurized with CO2, showed large variations in the mechanical properties. Modulus varied from 0.7 GPa to 3.4 GPa even though samples were extracted from a single large chunk of coal. We did not observe any glass transition for Illinois bituminous coal at - 100oC ≤ T ≤ 300oC, however, when the coal was pressurized with CO2 at ambient ≤ P ≤ 20.7 MPa, the viscosity of the coal decreased and inversely scaled with the CO2 pressure. The decrease in viscosity as a function of pressure could pose CO2 injection problems for coal as lower viscosity would allow the solid coal to flow to plug the fractures, fissures, and cleats. Our experiments also showed a very small fraction of CO2 was absorbed in coal; and when CO2 pressurized coals were exposed to atmospheric conditions, the loss of CO2 from coals was massive. Half of the sequestered gas from the coal cores was lost in less than 20 minutes. Our shockwave experiments on Illinois bituminous coal, New Albany shale (Illinois), Devonian shale (Ohio), and Utica shale (Ohio) presented clear evidence that the significant emission of the sequestered CO2 from these formations cannot be discounted during seismic activity, especially if caprock is compromised. It is argued that additional shockwave studies, both compressive and transverse, would be required for successfully mapping the risks associated with sequestering high pressure CO2 in coal and shale formations.

  17. National Coastal Condition Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    It is important to monitor coastal waters for potentially harmful trends and to identify areas in good condition. That is the purpose of the National Coastal Condition Assessment, which EPA conducts every few years.

  18. Risk Assessment of Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning Strategies in Low-Load Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Poerschke, Andrew

    2016-02-01

    These simulations enabled IBACOS to identify which strategies work best for particular climate zones or house geometries and to propose solutions that homebuilders can implement to reduce the risk of occupant discomfort in individual rooms.

  19. Transformation and accumulation of PAH and bound residues in soil under extreme conditions - a risk assessment approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eschenbach, Annette

    2010-05-01

    The degradation of PAH in contaminated soil does not proceed completely in the majority of cases. However microorganisms which are able to degrade PAH are present in PAH-contaminated soils normally. A total degradation of PAH in contaminated soils is often limited by a lack of bioavailability, which results from a lack of mass transfer. The analytical depletion of contaminants in soil is not only based on degradation processes but also on a fixation or immobilization of the xenobiotic substances as stronger adsorbed to or bound residues in the soil matrix. These bound residues were verified by using 14C-labelled PAH in different soil samples. To evaluate the long term fate of theses PAH-residues the stability and transformation of 14C-labelled non-extractable PAH-residues was investigated in detail under different extreme ecological and climate conditions such as biological stress, freezing and thawing cycles, and chemical worst case conditions. The transformation and remobilization of non-extractable PAH-residues was observed in long-time experiments and was very limited in general (Eschenbach et al. 2001). Only small amounts of non extractable residues were transformed and converted to CO2 and thereby detoxified. However the treatment with a complexing agent led to an increase of extractable 14C-activity. In a further set of experiments the long term risk of a groundwater contamination was assessed. Therefore the elution rate of 14C-PAH was investigated by a routinely usable column test system. It was found that the PAH elution was not solely controlled by desorption processes. The extractable PAH concentrations and elution rates were affected by the mineralization and formation of bound residues as well. For the assessment of the maximum PAH release rate the soil material was treated by extreme and worst case conditions as well. The impact of the elution of bidestillated water, of repeated freeze-thaw cycles and a simulation of acidic rain was investigated. The

  20. Risk Assessment of Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning Strategies in Low-Load Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Poerschke, Andrew

    2016-02-17

    "Modern, energy efficient homes conforming to the Zero Energy Ready Home standard face the challenge of meeting high customer expectations for comfort. Traditional heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) sizing and control strategies may be insufficient to adequately condition each zone due to unique load patterns in each room caused by a number of factors. These factors include solar heat gains, occupant-related gains, and gains associated with appliances and electronics. Because of shrinking shell loads, these intermittent factors are having an increasingly significant impact on the thermal load in each zone. Consequently, occupant comfort can be compromised. To evaluate the impact of climate and house geometry, as well as HVAC system and control strategies on comfort conditions, IBACOS analyzed the results of 99 TRNSYS multiple-zone simulations. The results of this analysis indicate that for simple-geometry and single-story plans, a single zone and thermostat can adequately condition the entire house. Demanding house geometry and houses with multiple stories require the consideration of multiple thermostats and multiple zones.

  1. An assessment of the microbiological risks involved with egg washing under commercial conditions.

    PubMed

    Hutchison, M L; Gittins, J; Sparks, A Walker N; Humphrey, T J; Burton, C; Moore, A

    2004-01-01

    The potential benefits of washing eggs is offset by a historical perception in the European Union that wetted eggs are prone to spoilage and water loss. This study describes the effects of spray jet washing under various processing conditions to shell surface counts of Salmonella and the presence of bacteria in egg contents. Experiments used eggs that were contaminated with Salmonella Enteritidis PT4 or Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 before cuticle hardening. Washing of contaminated eggs under optimum conditions resulted in a more than 5-log reduction of Salmonella counts from the shell surface. Salmonella was not isolated from the yolk or albumen of any egg washed by the optimal protocol, suggesting that when properly controlled, egg washing did not cause Salmonella to enter the contents. However, contamination did arise if strict control was not maintained over the wash and rinse water temperatures. Both Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium were shown to enter the egg contents when water temperatures were lowered, indicating that strict temperature control must be maintained in order to prevent the ingress of Salmonella into egg contents. Other washing machine parameters that were investigated did not significantly affect Salmonella entry into the egg contents but influenced shell surface kill levels to varying degrees.

  2. National Wetland Condition Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The NWCA is a collaborative, statistical survey of the nation's wetlands. It is one of four national surveys that EPA and its partners conduct to assess the condition and health of the nation's water resources.

  3. National Coastal Condition Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The NCCA is a collaborative, statistical survey of the nation's coastal waters and the Great Lakes. It is one of four national surveys that EPA and its partners conduct to assess the condition and health of the nation's water resources.

  4. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  5. Condition Assessment Information System

    SciTech Connect

    Rowe, Kenneth; McDermitt, Dennis

    2002-09-16

    CAIS2000 records, tracks and cost maintenance deficiencies associated with condition assessments of real property assets. Cost information is available for 39,000 items in the currenht RS Means, Facilities Construction Manual. These costs can, in turn, be rolled by by asset to produce the summary condition of an asset or site.

  6. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  7. Residue behavior and risk assessment of mixed formulation of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr in chieh-qua under field conditions.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jian Xiang; Liu, Cong Yun; Lu, Da Hai; Chen, Jia Jia; Deng, Yi Cai; Wang, Fu Hua

    2015-10-01

    A simple and rapid method based on high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) was developed for the simultaneous determination of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr residues in chieh-qua. Field trials were designed to investigate the dissipation and terminal residue behavior of the mixed formulation of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr in chieh-qua in Guangzhou and Nanning areas. Risk assessment was performed by calculating the risk quotient (RQ) values. The developed analytical method exhibited recoveries of 89.9-110.3% with relative standard deviations (RSDs) of 2.8-12.5% at the spiked levels of 0.01, 0.10, and 1.00 mg/kg. The limit of detection (LOD) was 0.003 mg/kg, and the limit of quantification (LOQ) was 0.01 mg/kg for both imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr. It was found that the half-lives of imidacloprid in chieh-qua under field conditions were 3.3 and 3.5 days in Guangzhou and Nanning at a dose of 180 g ai/ha, while the half-lives of chlorfenapyr were 3.3 and 2.6 days, respectively. The terminal residues of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr were from 0.01 to 0.21 mg/kg and from 0.01 to 0.46 mg/kg, respectively. Results of dietary exposure assessment showed that the RQ values were much lower than 1, indicating that the risk of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr applied in chieh-qua was negligible to human health under recommended dosage and good agricultural practices. The proposed study would provide guidance for safe and reasonable use of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr in chieh-qua cultivation in China.

  8. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  9. Residue behavior and dietary intake risk assessment of three fungicides in tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) under greenhouse conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Xiaodan; Jia, Chunhong; Duan, Lifang; Zhang, Wei; Yu, Pingzhong; He, Min; Chen, Li; Zhao, Ercheng

    2016-11-01

    The residue behavior and dietary intake risk of three fungicides (pyrimethanil, iprodione, kresoxim-methyl) in tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) grown in greenhouse were investigated. A simple, rapid analytical method for the quantification of fungicide residues in tomatoes was developed using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrum detection (GC-MSD). The fortified recoveries were ranged from 87% to 103% with relative standard deviations (RSDs) varied from 4.7% to 12.1%. The results indicated that the dissipation rate of the studied fungicides in tomatoes followed first order kinetics with half lives in the range of 8.6-11.5 days. The final residues of all the fungicides in tomatoes were varied from 0.241 to 0.944 mg/kg. The results of dietary intake assessment indicated that the dietary intake of the three fungicides from tomatoes consumption for Chinese consumers were acceptable. This study would provide more understanding of residue behavior and dietary intake risk by these fungicides used under greenhouse conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  11. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  12. Assessing predation risks for small fish in a large river ecosystem between contrasting habitats and turbidity conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodrill, Michael J.; Yard, Mike; Pine, William E.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined predation risk for juvenile native fish between two riverine shoreline habitats, backwater and debris fan, across three discrete turbidity levels (low, intermediate, high) to understand environmental risks associated with habitat use in a section of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, AZ. Inferences are particularly important to juvenile native fish, including the federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. This species uses a variety of habitats including backwaters which are often considered important rearing areas. Densities of two likely predators, adult rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and adult humpback chub, were estimated between habitats using binomial mixture models to examine whether higher predator density was associated with patterns of predation risk. Tethering experiments were used to quantify relative predation risk between habitats and turbidity conditions. Under low and intermediate turbidity conditions, debris fan habitat showed higher relative predation risk compared to backwaters. In both habitats the highest predation risk was observed during intermediate turbidity conditions. Density of likely predators did not significantly differ between these habitats. This information can help managers in Grand Canyon weigh flow policy options designed to increase backwater availability or extant turbidity conditions.

  13. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  14. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

  15. Assessment of the risk of failure of high voltage substations due to environmental conditions and pollution on insulators.

    PubMed

    Castillo Sierra, Rafael; Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar; Candelo, John E; Soto, Jose D

    2015-07-01

    Pollution on electrical insulators is one of the greatest causes of failure of substations subjected to high levels of salinity and environmental pollution. Considering leakage current as the main indicator of pollution on insulators, this paper focuses on establishing the effect of the environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators and determining the significant change in the magnitude of the pollution on the insulators during dry and humid periods. Hierarchical segmentation analysis was used to establish the effect of environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators. The Kruskal-Wallis test was utilized to determine the significant changes in the magnitude of the pollution due to climate periods. An important result was the discovery that leakage current was more common on insulators during dry periods than humid ones. There was also a higher risk of failure due to pollution during dry periods. During the humid period, various temperatures and wind directions produced a small change in the risk of failure. As a technical result, operators of electrical substations can now identify the cause of an increase in risk of failure due to pollution in the area. The research provides a contribution towards the behaviour of the leakage current under conditions similar to those of the Colombian Caribbean coast and how they affect the risk of failure of the substation due to pollution.

  16. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension.

    PubMed

    Abia, Akebe Luther King; Ubomba-Jaswa, Eunice; Genthe, Bettina; Momba, Maggy Ndombo Benteke

    2016-10-01

    Although higher microbial concentrations have been reported in sediments than in the overlying water column, most quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) studies have not clearly indicated the contribution of sediment-borne pathogens to estimated risks. Thus, the present study aimed at determining the public health risk associated with exposure to pathogenic bacteria in polluted river water under undisturbed conditions and conditions of sediment resuspension in the Apies River, Gauteng, South Africa. Microbial pathogens were isolated and identified using culture and molecular methods. The beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of infection (Pi) with the various pathogens, following accidental/intentional ingestion of 1mL or 100mL (or 50mL) of untreated river water. Mean wet season Escherichia coli counts ranged between 5.8E+01 and 8.8E+04MPN/100mL (water column) and between 2.40E+03 and 1.28E+05MPN/100mL (sediments). Mean dry season E. coli counts ranged between 5.11E+00 and 3.40E+03MPN/100mL (water column) and between 5.09E+00 and 6.30E+03MPN/100mL (sediments). Overall (water and sediments) Vibrio cholerae was the most detected pathogen (58.8%) followed by Salmonella spp. (23.9%) and Shigella (10.1%). Ingestion of 1mL of river water could lead to 0%-4% and 1%-74% Pi with E. coli during the dry and wet season, respectively. During the dry season, the Pi with V. cholerae, Salmonella spp. and Shigella spp. were 0%-1.39%, 0%-4.11% and 0%-0.16% respectively, depending on volume of water ingested. The risks of infections with all microorganisms increased during the wet season. A 2-log increase in water E. coli count following sediments disturbance led to approximately 10 times higher Pi with E. coli than when sediments were undisturbed. Therefore, the use of the untreated water from the Apies River for drinking, household purposes or recreational activities poses a potential health risk to the users of the river.

  17. Relationship between paediatric CT scans and subsequent risk of leukaemia and brain tumours: assessment of the impact of underlying conditions.

    PubMed

    Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Salotti, Jane A; McHugh, Kieran; Little, Mark P; Harbron, Richard W; Lee, Choonsik; Ntowe, Estelle; Braganza, Melissa Z; Parker, Louise; Rajaraman, Preetha; Stiller, Charles; Stewart, Douglas R; Craft, Alan W; Pearce, Mark S

    2016-02-16

    We previously reported evidence of a dose-response relationship between ionising-radiation exposure from paediatric computed tomography (CT) scans and the risk of leukaemia and brain tumours in a large UK cohort. Underlying unreported conditions could have introduced bias into these findings. We collected and reviewed additional clinical information from radiology information systems (RIS) databases, underlying cause of death and pathology reports. We conducted sensitivity analyses excluding participants with cancer-predisposing conditions or previous unreported cancers and compared the dose-response analyses with our original results. We obtained information from the RIS and death certificates for about 40% of the cohort (n∼180 000) and found cancer-predisposing conditions in 4 out of 74 leukaemia/myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) cases and 13 out of 135 brain tumour cases. As these conditions were unrelated to CT exposure, exclusion of these participants did not alter the dose-response relationships. We found evidence of previous unreported cancers in 2 leukaemia/MDS cases, 7 brain tumour cases and 232 in non-cases. These previous cancers were related to increased number of CTs. Exclusion of these cancers reduced the excess relative risk per mGy by 15% from 0.036 to 0.033 for leukaemia/MDS (P-trend=0.02) and by 30% from 0.023 to 0.016 (P-trend<0.0001) for brain tumours. When we included pathology reports we had additional clinical information for 90% of the cases. Additional exclusions from these reports further reduced the risk estimates, but this sensitivity analysis may have underestimated risks as reports were only available for cases. Although there was evidence of some bias in our original risk estimates, re-analysis of the cohort with additional clinical data still showed an increased cancer risk after low-dose radiation exposure from CT scans in young patients.

  18. Relationship between paediatric CT scans and subsequent risk of leukaemia and brain tumours: assessment of the impact of underlying conditions

    PubMed Central

    de Gonzalez, Amy Berrington; Salotti, Jane A; McHugh, Kieran; Little, Mark P; Harbron, Richard W; Lee, Choonsik; Ntowe, Estelle; Braganza, Melissa Z; Parker, Louise; Rajaraman, Preetha; Stiller, Charles; Stewart, Douglas R; Craft, Alan W; Pearce, Mark S

    2016-01-01

    Background: We previously reported evidence of a dose–response relationship between ionising-radiation exposure from paediatric computed tomography (CT) scans and the risk of leukaemia and brain tumours in a large UK cohort. Underlying unreported conditions could have introduced bias into these findings. Methods: We collected and reviewed additional clinical information from radiology information systems (RIS) databases, underlying cause of death and pathology reports. We conducted sensitivity analyses excluding participants with cancer-predisposing conditions or previous unreported cancers and compared the dose–response analyses with our original results. Results: We obtained information from the RIS and death certificates for about 40% of the cohort (n∼180 000) and found cancer-predisposing conditions in 4 out of 74 leukaemia/myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) cases and 13 out of 135 brain tumour cases. As these conditions were unrelated to CT exposure, exclusion of these participants did not alter the dose–response relationships. We found evidence of previous unreported cancers in 2 leukaemia/MDS cases, 7 brain tumour cases and 232 in non-cases. These previous cancers were related to increased number of CTs. Exclusion of these cancers reduced the excess relative risk per mGy by 15% from 0.036 to 0.033 for leukaemia/MDS (P-trend=0.02) and by 30% from 0.023 to 0.016 (P-trend<0.0001) for brain tumours. When we included pathology reports we had additional clinical information for 90% of the cases. Additional exclusions from these reports further reduced the risk estimates, but this sensitivity analysis may have underestimated risks as reports were only available for cases. Conclusions: Although there was evidence of some bias in our original risk estimates, re-analysis of the cohort with additional clinical data still showed an increased cancer risk after low-dose radiation exposure from CT scans in young patients. PMID:26882064

  19. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  20. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  1. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  2. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  3. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  4. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  5. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  6. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  7. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  8. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Treesearch

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  9. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    PubMed

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  10. Degradation of three fungicides following application on strawberry and a risk assessment of their toxicity under greenhouse conditions.

    PubMed

    Sun, Caixia; Cang, Tao; Wang, Zhiwei; Wang, Xinquan; Yu, Ruixian; Wang, Qiang; Zhao, Xueping

    2015-05-01

    The health risk to humans of pesticide application on minor crops, such as strawberry, requires quantification. Here, the dissipation and residual levels of three fungicides (pyraclostrobin, myclobutanil, and difenoconazole) were studied for strawberry under greenhouse conditions using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)-tandem mass spectrometry after Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged, and Safe extraction. This method was validated using blank samples, with all mean recoveries of these three fungicides exceeding 80%. The residues of all three fungicides dissipated following first-order kinetics. The half-lives of pyraclostrobin, myclobutanil, and difenoconazole were 1.69, 3.30, and 3.65 days following one time application and 1.73, 5.78, and 6.30 days following two times applications, respectively. Fungicide residue was determined by comparing the estimated daily intake of the three fungicides against the acceptable daily intake. The results indicate that the potential health risk of the three fungicides was not significant in strawberry when following good agricultural practices (GAP) under greenhouse conditions.

  11. Fragmentation Under Extreme Conditions: Applications to Risk Assessment and Diagnostic Development at Mega-Joule Class Laser Facilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stolken, James

    2013-06-01

    The development of Mega-Joule class laser facilities (NIF, USA; LMJ, France, SG-IV, China) has driven the need to understand, predict, and control the risks associated with experimental operations due to ablation, blast, and impact hazards. These hazards potentially jeopardize a broad range of facility assets, such as Targets, Laser Optics, Diagnostics, and other Infrastructure. This presentation shall focus on the application of high-performance computer modeling and simulation (M&S) to quantify and mitigate the risk posed by blast, ablation, and impact hazards. The overall risk management strategy is discussed and the role of M&S outlined. The M&S activities fall within two broad categories, Laser-Material interaction (LM) and Hydro-Structural (HS) simulations. The LM class of simulations addresses the high energy, short time phenomena including laser energy deposition, radiation, ablation, heat-flow, and hydrodynamic motion. The HS class of simulations addresses lower energy, longer time phenomena including hydrodynamic motion, heat-flow, material failure, fracture, and fragmentation. Recent efforts to assess and improve fragmentation simulation capabilities are reviewed. Existing simulations methodologies are evaluated and compared to high fidelity fragment data. Applications to diagnostic development and experimental design are reviewed.

  12. Toxicity risk assessment of mercury, DDT and arsenic legacy pollution in sediments: A triad approach under low concentration conditions.

    PubMed

    Marziali, L; Rosignoli, F; Drago, A; Pascariello, S; Valsecchi, L; Rossaro, B; Guzzella, L

    2017-03-31

    The determination of sediment toxicity is challenging due to site-specific factors affecting pollutants distribution and bioavailability, especially when contamination levels are close to expected non-effect concentrations. Different lines of evidence and sensitive tools are necessary for a proper toxicity risk assessment. We examined the case study of the Toce River (Northern Italy), where past industrial activities determined Hg, DDT and As enrichment in sediments. A triad approach comprising chemical, ecotoxicological and ecological analyses (benthic invertebrates) was carried out for risk assessment of residual contamination in river sediments. A "blank" site upstream from the industrial site was selected to compare the other sites downstream. Sediment, water and benthic invertebrate samplings were carried out following standard protocols. Results emphasized that despite the emissions of the industrial site ceased about 20years ago, sediments in the downstream section of the river remain contaminated by Hg, DDT and As with concentrations exceeding Threshold Effect Concentrations. A chronic whole-sediment test with Chironomus riparius showed decreased development rate and a lower number of eggs per mass in the contaminated sediments. Benthic community was analyzed with the calculation of integrated (STAR_ICMi) and stressor-specific metrics (SPEARpesticide and mean sensitivity to Hg), but no significant differences were found between upstream and downstream sites. On the other hand, multivariate analysis (partial Redundancy Analysis and variation partitioning) emphasized a slight impact on invertebrate community, accounting for 5% variation in taxa composition. Results show that legacy contaminants in sediments, even at low concentrations, may be bioavailable and possibly toxic for benthic invertebrates. At low concentration levels, sensitive and site-specific tools need to be developed for a proper risk analysis.

  13. Risk Assessment Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-10-01

    2W0 ww) A number of computer-based risk assessment tools were enhanced or creaited to provide Increased access to risk assessment instruments and...produced an extensible authoring tool , SYNTAS, for test instruments that will simplify the data gathering phase of subsequent work. SYNTAS gives DNA...Ultimately it became a computer-assisted software engineerting (CASE) tool capable of producing a wide variety of assessment instruments . In addition, its

  14. The use of check valve performance data to support new concepts (probabilistic risk assessment, condition monitoring) for check valve program

    SciTech Connect

    Hart, K.A.; Gower, D.

    1996-12-01

    The concept of developing an integrated check valve database based on the Nuclear Power Reliability Data System (NPRDS) data was presented at the last Symposium. The Nuclear Industry Check Valve Group (NIC), working in cooperation with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), has completed an operational database of check valve performance from 1984 to the present. NIC has committed to the nuclear industry to periodically update the data and maintain this information accessible. As the new concepts of probabilistic risk analysis and condition monitoring are integrated into the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Code, a critical element will be performance data. From check valve performance data, feasible failure modes and rates can be established. When a failure rate or frequency of failures can be established based on a significant enough population (sampling), a more solid foundation for focusing resources and determining appropriate frequencies and testing can be determined. The presentation will give the updated status of the NIC Check Valve Performance Database covering (1) methodology used to combine the original ORNL data; (2) process/controls established for continuing update and refinement of the data; (3) discussion of how this data is being utilized by (a) OM-22 for condition monitoring, and (b) risk-based inservice testing work of Westinghouse Owners` Group; and (4) results/trends of data evaluations. At the 1994 Symposium, ORNL provided an update as of 1991 to their original work of 1984 -1990 which they had performed to characterize check valve degradations and failures in the nuclear industry. These characterizations will be updated to 1995 and additional reviews provided to give insight into the current condition and trends of check valve performance.

  15. Conceptual modeling for identification of worst case conditions in environmental risk assessment of nanomaterials using nZVI and C60 as case studies.

    PubMed

    Grieger, Khara D; Hansen, Steffen F; Sørensen, Peter B; Baun, Anders

    2011-09-01

    Conducting environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials has been an extremely challenging endeavor thus far. Moreover, recent findings from the nano-risk scientific community indicate that it is unlikely that many of these challenges will be easily resolved in the near future, especially given the vast variety and complexity of nanomaterials and their applications. As an approach to help optimize environmental risk assessments of nanomaterials, we apply the Worst-Case Definition (WCD) model to identify best estimates for worst-case conditions of environmental risks of two case studies which use engineered nanoparticles, namely nZVI in soil and groundwater remediation and C(60) in an engine oil lubricant. Results generated from this analysis may ultimately help prioritize research areas for environmental risk assessments of nZVI and C(60) in these applications as well as demonstrate the use of worst-case conditions to optimize future research efforts for other nanomaterials. Through the application of the WCD model, we find that the most probable worst-case conditions for both case studies include i) active uptake mechanisms, ii) accumulation in organisms, iii) ecotoxicological response mechanisms such as reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and cell membrane damage or disruption, iv) surface properties of nZVI and C(60), and v) acute exposure tolerance of organisms. Additional estimates of worst-case conditions for C(60) also include the physical location of C(60) in the environment from surface run-off, cellular exposure routes for heterotrophic organisms, and the presence of light to amplify adverse effects. Based on results of this analysis, we recommend the prioritization of research for the selected applications within the following areas: organism active uptake ability of nZVI and C(60) and ecotoxicological response end-points and response mechanisms including ROS production and cell membrane damage, full nanomaterial characterization taking

  16. Dissipation pattern and risk assessment of flubendiamide on chili at different agro-climatic conditions in India.

    PubMed

    Sharma, K K; Mukherjee, Irani; Singh, Balwinder; Sahoo, Sanjay K; Mandal, Kousik; Mohapatra, Soudamini; Ahuja, A K; Sharma, Debi; Parihar, N S; Sharma, B N; Kale, V D; Walunj, A R

    2015-05-01

    Dissipation pattern and risk assessment of flubendiamide and its metabolite (desiodo flubendiamide) on chili were studied at four different agro-climatic locations of India at the standard and double dose at 60 and 120 g a.i. ha(-1) at 10 days interval. Quantification of residues was done on a high-performance liquid chromatograph (HPLC) with a photo diode array detector. The limit of quantification (LOQ) of this method was found to be 0.01 mg kg(-1) while limit of detection (LOD) being 0.003 mg kg(-1). Residues of flubendiamide were found to be below the determination limit in 15 days at both the dosages in all locations. Half-life of flubendiamide when applied at 60 and 120 g a.i. ha(-1) ranged from 0.85 to 1.80 and from 0.95 to 2.79 days, respectively. On the basis of data generated under the All India Network Project on Pesticide Residues, a preharvest interval (PHI) of 1 day has been recommended and the flubendiamide 480 SC has been registered for use on chili in India by the Central Insecticide Board and Registration Committee, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. The maximum residue limit (MRL) of flubendiamide on chili has been fixed by the Food Safety Standard Authority of India, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, as 0.02 μg g(-1) after its risk assessment.

  17. Residual behavior and risk assessment of flubendiamide on tomato at different agro-climatic conditions in India.

    PubMed

    Sharma, K K; Mukherjee, Irani; Singh, Balwinder; Sahoo, Sanjay K; Parihar, N S; Sharma, B N; Kale, V D; Nakat, R V; Walunj, A R; Mohapatra, Saudamini; Ahuja, A K; Sharma, Debi; Singh, Geeta; Noniwal, Rajbir; Devi, Sunita

    2014-11-01

    Supervised field trials were conducted at four different agro-climatic zones in India to evaluate the dissipation pattern and risk assessment of flubendiamide on tomato. Flubendiamide 480 SC was sprayed on tomato at 48 and 96 g active ingredient (a.i.) ha(-1). Samples of tomato fruits were drawn at 0, 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, and 20 days after treatment. Quantification of residues was done on a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) device with a photo diode array detector. The limit of quantification (LOQ) of this method was found to be 0.01 mg kg(-1) while limit of detection (LOD) being 0.003 mg kg(-1). Residues of flubendiamide were found below the determination limit of 0.01 mg kg(-1) in 20 days at both the dosages in all the locations. The half-life of flubendiamide at an application rate of 48 g a.i. ha(-1) varied from 0.33 to 3.28 days and at 48-g a.i. ranged from 1.21 to 3.00 days. On the basis of data generated under the All India Network Project on Pesticide Residues, a preharvest interval (PHI) of 1 day has been recommended, and the flubendiamide 480 SC has been registered for its use on tomato by the Central Insecticide Board and Registration Committee, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. The maximum residue limit (MRL) of flubendiamide on tomato has been fixed by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India under Food Safety Standard Authority of India, as 0.07 μg g(-1) after its risk assessment.

  18. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  19. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  20. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... helpful? Formal name: Cardiac Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common ... on Coronary artery disease: Tests and diagnosis .) The lipid profile is the most important blood test for cardiac ...

  1. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  2. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real…

  3. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real…

  4. Effect of finite element model loading condition on fracture risk assessment in men and women: the AGES-Reykjavik study.

    PubMed

    Keyak, J H; Sigurdsson, S; Karlsdottir, G S; Oskarsdottir, D; Sigmarsdottir, A; Kornak, J; Harris, T B; Sigurdsson, G; Jonsson, B Y; Siggeirsdottir, K; Eiriksdottir, G; Gudnason, V; Lang, T F

    2013-11-01

    Proximal femoral (hip) strength computed by subject-specific CT scan-based finite element (FE) models has been explored as an improved measure for identifying subjects at risk of hip fracture. However, to our knowledge, no published study has reported the effect of loading condition on the association between incident hip fracture and hip strength. In the present study, we performed a nested age- and sex-matched case-control study in the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES) Reykjavik cohort. Baseline (pre-fracture) quantitative CT (QCT) scans of 5500 older male and female subjects were obtained. During 4-7years follow-up, 51 men and 77 women sustained hip fractures. Ninety-seven men and 152 women were randomly selected as controls from a pool of age- and sex-matched subjects. From the QCT data, FE models employing nonlinear material properties computed FE-strength of the left hip of each subject in loading from a fall onto the posterolateral (FPL), posterior (FP) and lateral (FL) aspects of the greater trochanter (patent pending). For comparison, FE strength in stance loading (FStance) and total femur areal bone mineral density (aBMD) were also computed. For all loading conditions, the reductions in strength associated with fracture in men were more than twice those in women (p≤0.01). For fall loading specifically, posterolateral loading in men and posterior loading in women were most strongly associated with incident hip fracture. After adjusting for aBMD, the association between FP and fracture in women fell short of statistical significance (p=0.08), indicating that FE strength provides little advantage over aBMD for identifying female hip fracture subjects. However, in men, after controlling for aBMD, FPL was 424N (11%) less in subjects with fractures than in controls (p=0.003). Thus, in men, FE models of posterolateral loading include information about incident hip fracture beyond that in aBMD.

  5. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  6. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  7. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

  8. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R. G.; Jusko, M. J.; Clemmons, M. A.

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  9. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  10. Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

    2017-04-01

    Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

  11. Assessing the risk of phosphorus transfer to high ecological status rivers: Integration of nutrient management with soil geochemical and hydrological conditions.

    PubMed

    Roberts, William M; Gonzalez-Jimenez, Jose L; Doody, Donnacha G; Jordan, Philip; Daly, Karen

    2017-07-01

    Agriculture has been implicated in the loss of pristine conditions and ecology at river sites classified as at 'high ecological status' across Europe. Although the exact causes remain unclear, diffuse phosphorus (P) transfer warrants consideration because of its wider importance for the ecological quality of rivers. This study assessed the risk of P loss at field scale from farms under contrasting soil conditions within three case-study catchments upstream of near-pristine river sites. Data from 39 farms showed P surpluses were common on extensive farm enterprises despite a lower P requirement and level of intensity. At field scale, data from 520 fields showed that Histic topsoils with elevated organic matter contents had low P reserves due to poor sorption capacities, and received applications of P in excess of recommended rates. On this soil type 67% of fields recorded a field P surplus of between 1 and 31kgha(-1), accounting for 46% of fields surveyed across 10 farms in a pressured high status catchment. A P risk assessment combined nutrient management, soil biogeochemical and hydrological data at field scale, across 3 catchments and the relative risks of P transfer were highest when fertilizer quantities that exceeded current recommendations on soils with a high risk of mobilization and high risk of transport as indicated by topographic wetness index values. This situation occurred on 21% of fields surveyed in the least intensively managed catchment with no on-farm nutrient management planning and soil testing. In contrast, the two intensively managed catchments presented a risk of P transfer in only 3% and 1% of fields surveyed across 29 farms. Future agri-environmental measures should be administered at field scale, not farm scale, and based on soil analysis that is inclusive of OM values on a field-by-field basis.

  12. Sorption, degradation and leaching of the fungicide iprodione in a golf green under Scandinavian conditions: measurements, modelling and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Strömqvist, Johan; Jarvis, Nicholas

    2005-12-01

    In cold climates, fungicides are used on golf greens to prevent snow mould causing serious damage to the turf. However, fungicide residues have been detected in runoff from golf courses, which may lead to restrictions on use. There is therefore an urgent need to improve understanding of the processes affecting leaching of fungicides from turfgrass systems to allow identification of green construction and management practices that minimize environmental impacts. In this study we monitored the leaching of the fungicide iprodione in a putting green. Sorption and degradation of iprodione was measured in batch and incubation experiments, and the simulation model MACRO was used as a risk assessment tool. Degradation of iprodione was bi-phasic, with a rapid initial phase (half-life 17 h) caused by enhanced biodegradation. Degradation rates slowed considerably after 5 days, with half-lives of up to 38 days. Sorption of iprodione was linear, with a K(oc) value of ca 400 cm(3) g(-1). MACRO reasonably accurately matched measured drainflows and concentrations of iprodione in soil and drainflow. However, peak concentrations in drainage were underestimated, which was attributed to preferential finger flow due to water repellency. The results also showed the importance of the organic matter content in the green root zone in reducing leaching. It was concluded that, with 'reasonable worst-case' use, losses of iprodione from greens can occur at concentrations exceeding water quality limits for aquatic ecosystems. Snow mould problems should be tackled by adopting green root zone mixes that minimize leaching and 'best management practices' that would avoid the need for intensive prophylactic use of fungicides.

  13. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  14. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  15. Value of Laboratory Tests in Employer-Sponsored Health Risk Assessments for Newly Identifying Health Conditions: Analysis of 52,270 Participants

    PubMed Central

    Kaufman, Harvey W.; Williams, Fred R.; Odeh, Mouneer A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Employer-sponsored health risk assessments (HRA) may include laboratory tests to provide evidence of disease and disease risks for common medical conditions. We evaluated the ability of HRA-laboratory testing to provide new disease-risk information to participants. Methodology/Principal Findings We performed a cross-sectional analysis of HRA-laboratory results for participating adult employees and their eligible spouses or their domestic partners, focusing on three common health conditions: hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease. HRA with laboratory results of 52,270 first-time participants were analyzed. Nearly all participants had access to health insurance coverage. Twenty-four percent (12,392) self-reported one or more of these medical conditions: 21.1% (11,017) self-identified as having hyperlipidemia, 4.7% (2,479) self-identified as having diabetes, and 0.7% (352) self-identified as having chronic kidney disease. Overall, 36% (n = 18,540) of participants had laboratory evidence of at least one medical condition newly identified: 30.7% (16,032) had laboratory evidence of hyperlipidemia identified, 1.9% (984) had laboratory evidence of diabetes identified, and 5.5% (2,866) had laboratory evidence of chronic kidney disease identified. Of all participants with evidence of hyperlipidemia 59% (16,030 of 27,047), were newly identified through the HRA. Among those with evidence of diabetes 28% (984 of 3,463) were newly identified. The highest rate of newly identified disease risk was for chronic kidney disease: 89% (2,866 of 3,218) of participants with evidence of this condition had not self-reported it. Men (39%) were more likely than women (33%) to have at least one newly identified condition (p<0.0001). Among men, lower levels of educational achievement were associated with modestly higher rates of newly identified disease risk (p<0.0001); the association with educational achievement among women was unclear. Even among the

  16. Hip fracture risk assessment: artificial neural network outperforms conditional logistic regression in an age- and sex-matched case control study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Osteoporotic hip fractures with a significant morbidity and excess mortality among the elderly have imposed huge health and economic burdens on societies worldwide. In this age- and sex-matched case control study, we examined the risk factors of hip fractures and assessed the fracture risk by conditional logistic regression (CLR) and ensemble artificial neural network (ANN). The performances of these two classifiers were compared. Methods The study population consisted of 217 pairs (149 women and 68 men) of fractures and controls with an age older than 60 years. All the participants were interviewed with the same standardized questionnaire including questions on 66 risk factors in 12 categories. Univariate CLR analysis was initially conducted to examine the unadjusted odds ratio of all potential risk factors. The significant risk factors were then tested by multivariate analyses. For fracture risk assessment, the participants were randomly divided into modeling and testing datasets for 10-fold cross validation analyses. The predicting models built by CLR and ANN in modeling datasets were applied to testing datasets for generalization study. The performances, including discrimination and calibration, were compared with non-parametric Wilcoxon tests. Results In univariate CLR analyses, 16 variables achieved significant level, and six of them remained significant in multivariate analyses, including low T score, low BMI, low MMSE score, milk intake, walking difficulty, and significant fall at home. For discrimination, ANN outperformed CLR in both 16- and 6-variable analyses in modeling and testing datasets (p?risk factors of hip fracture are more personal than environmental. With adequate model construction, ANN may outperform CLR in both discrimination and calibration. ANN seems to have not been

  17. Assessing the planet's condition.

    PubMed

    Brown, L R

    1990-01-01

    The destruction of the environment has accelerated since the Earth Day of 1970, the world's population has increased by another 1.6 billion, and over 500 million acres of forest have been lost. Carbon dioxide levels, greenhouse gases, and chlorofluorocarbons have increased in the atmosphere with evidence that global warming has started. The ozone hole has appeared, acid rain has destroyed forests, air pollution in major northern hemisphere cities has worsened, and species are disappearing, while toxic chemicals have been dumped indiscriminately. World grain production has fallen while population has increased. In Europe 14 countries have stabilized their population, and Japan, France, and Finland are on the way to zero growth. Reduction of high fertility in 1/2 could halt the deterioration of living conditions. Japan and China achieved this within a decade. Energy efficiency has to be attained; US cars still consume too much gas. Solar energy with photovoltaic cells to provide power, fuel alcohol from plants, and solar thermal power plants have potential. Semiarid regions, such as northern Africa, could become major producers of solar energy. Various measures are mandatory to cut down on waste: to recycle paper bags, to use standardized glasses for beverages, and to utilize scrap metal in electric arc steel furnaces. Reforestation is also on the agenda, as major deforestation has occurred in the Brazilian Amazon region, in India, and in Europe because of acid rain. Australia's national plan envisions planting 1 billion trees, and the US project is of similar magnitude during the 1990s. Only the US has succeeded in erosion control and topsoil stabilization when it converted erodible cropland into grassland or woodland during 1986-90.

  18. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  19. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  20. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft's .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  1. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  2. The importance of registration of sexual orientation and recognition of indicator conditions for an adequate HIV risk-assessment.

    PubMed

    Joore, Ivo K; Geerlings, Suzanne E; Brinkman, Kees; van Bergen, Jan E A M; Prins, Jan M

    2017-02-28

    HIV testing among risk groups and guided by HIV indicator conditions (IC) is widely recommended by European guidelines. In this study we investigated how these strategies are used by general practitioners (GP) and in other healthcare settings. The objectives of our study were to describe: 1) the proportion of consultations in primary care and other healthcare settings in the five years prior to diagnosis; 2) patient and GP perspectives on the primary healthcare providers' awareness and registration of sexual orientation and ethnicity in the electronic medical record (EMR); and 3) the proportion of HIV-infected patients who had been diagnosed with an IC prior to HIV diagnosis. A survey study (2014-2016) was conducted among newly diagnosed HIV-infected patients presenting at two HIV outpatient clinics in Amsterdam. We collected information on the number of consultations and extent of HIV testing in healthcare settings in the 5 years prior to HIV diagnosis; on patient and GP perspectives on the primary healthcare providers' awareness of sexual orientation and ethnicity; and on preselected ICs and symptoms of acute HIV infection prior to diagnosis. GPs were also approached for further information. In the 5 years prior to HIV diagnosis, 82.9% of the 111 patients had one or more consultations with their GP, but only 34.8% had one or more HIV tests performed in general practice during this period. In more than 50% of cases the patients took the initiative for the positive HIV test. GPs stated that they were aware of the sexual orientation of 59.6% of their patients who were men who have sex with men (MSM); however, sexual orientation was only documented in the EMR in 34.0% of these cases. GPs also reported that they were aware that a patient was from an HIV endemic country in more than half of the cases. GPs diagnosed 48.3% of all ICs and 39.5% of this group was offered an HIV test at that time. Documentation of sexual orientation and ethnicity, and IC-guided testing by

  3. Falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gallacher, Rose

    2017-02-22

    What was the nature of the CPD activity, practice-related feedback and/or event and/or experience in your practice? The CPD article outlined the causes and consequences of falls for older patients. It discussed the falls risk assessment tools, and falls prevention measures.

  4. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  5. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  6. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment). PMID:27757402

  7. Methods of Assessing the Risks Associated with Lack of Water Supplies, Water Safety Plan for National Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rybka, Sławomir

    2012-06-01

    Article shows the desire to obtain risk-control options, and bringing it to a tolerable level. Subjects were ways of managing and dealing with risk. Methods of dealing with aspects of the protection of industrial buildings and high-risk critical infrastructure vulnerability analysis methodology to the loss of integrity. Also a set method to deal with aspects of the protection of industrial buildings and high-risk critical infrastructure that is the analysis of susceptibility to loss of integrity. The article also presents the basic principles of water safety plan based on national and foreign research publications. In the next part of article WSP methodology was concluded, outlining the actions which use significantly reduces the risk of threats that could lead to supply of contaminated tap water or total interruption of its supply. In further considerations the most important steps in creating WSP were presented. In the final section the principle of modular computer system operation that is used for network management for urban water supply in Rzeszow was presented.

  8. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  9. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  10. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  11. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  12. The National Wetland Condition Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The first National Wetland Condition Assessment (NWCA) was conducted in 2011 by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Vegetation, algae, soil, water chemistry,and hydrologic data were collected at each of 1138 sites across the contiguous US. Ecological condition was ass...

  13. The National Wetland Condition Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The first National Wetland Condition Assessment (NWCA) was conducted in 2011 by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Vegetation, algae, soil, water chemistry,and hydrologic data were collected at each of 1138 sites across the contiguous US. Ecological condition was ass...

  14. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  15. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    PubMed

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) (1/2); Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2(Health effect level)×2(exposure ratio)×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  16. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  17. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

    PubMed Central

    Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

    2016-01-01

    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

  18. Formaldehyde: assessing the risk

    SciTech Connect

    Hileman, B.

    1984-07-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency has listed formaldehyde as a priority chemical for regulatory assessment under section 4 (f) of the Toxic Substances Control Act. They will give priority consideration to human formaldehyde exposure in two areas because of the large numbers of people involved: clothing workers who handle textiles treated with formaldehyde-based resins and residents of mobile homes that contain formaldehyde-based resins in construction materials such as foam insulation. Much of the scientific data for determining risks associated with formaldehyde is conflicting and ambiguous, due in part to its presence as a normal metabolite in human biochemistry. Although the chemical induces squamous cell carcinoma in rats, epidemiological studies in occupationally exposed groups show no strong evidence of a causal relationship between formaldehyde and cancer. Dose-response data from an experiment sponsored by the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology are used as the primary basis in constructing risk assessments for the human population. The most conservative model and the one chosen by EPA is the linearized multistage model. When the results of this model are examined, most of the groups studied are subject to an unacceptable risk.

  19. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  20. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  1. Selection of process conditions by risk assessment for apple juice pasteurization by UV-heat treatments at moderate temperatures.

    PubMed

    Gayán, E; Torres, J A; Alvarez, I; Condón, S

    2014-02-01

    The effect of bactericidal UV-C treatments (254 nm) on Escherichia coli O157:H7 suspended in apple juice increased synergistically with temperature up to a threshold value. The optimum UV-C treatment temperature was 55 °C, yielding a 58.9% synergistic lethal effect. Under these treatment conditions, the UV-heat (UV-H55 °C) lethal variability achieving 5-log reductions had a logistic distribution (α = 37.92, β = 1.10). Using this distribution, UV-H55 °C doses to achieve the required juice safety goal with 95, 99, and 99.9% confidence were 41.17, 42.97, and 46.00 J/ml, respectively, i.e., doses higher than the 37.58 J/ml estimated by a deterministic procedure. The public health impact of these results is that the larger UV-H55 °C dose required for achieving 5-log reductions with 95, 99, and 99.9% confidence would reduce the probability of hemolytic uremic syndrome in children by 76.3, 88.6, and 96.9%, respectively. This study illustrates the importance of including the effect of data variability when selecting operational parameters for novel and conventional preservation processes to achieve high food safety standards with the desired confidence level.

  2. Risk assessment for safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadlock, Charles R.; Glaser, Peter E.

    The application of probabilistic risk-assessment techniques to space missions is discussed, with a focus on the International Space Station. The types of hazards likely to be caused by random events; design, operational, and management errors; and intentional intervention are examined along with their secondary effects; and the top-level safety requirements defined by NASA are considered. It is suggested that such qualitative stipulations be supplemented with more quantitative measures such as used in the nuclear-power industry; the major features of such quantitative methods are reviewed.

  3. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  4. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  5. Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.

  6. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    PubMed

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  7. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  8. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  9. Advances in stalking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment.

  10. Decline patterns and risk assessment of 10 multi-class pesticides in young sprout amaranth (Amaranthus mangostanus) under greenhouse growing conditions.

    PubMed

    Kim, In Kyung; Kim, Sung-Woo; Abd El-Aty, A M; Rahman, Md Musfiqur; Kabir, Md Humayun; Lee, Han Sol; Chung, Hyung Suk; Jeong, Ji Hoon; Shin, Ho-Chul; Shim, Jae-Han

    2017-09-16

    The present study was designed to investigate the residual decline pattern and the risk assessment of 10 different class pesticides, namely azoxystrobin, boscalid, diazinon, diethofencarb, difenoconazole, etofenprox, flubendiamide, paclobutrazol, and pyraclostrobin in young vegetative amaranth (Amaranthus mangostanus) sprayed once or twice under greenhouse growing conditions. Field-incurred samples, collected at 3, 7, or 10 days after application of both treatments, were extracted and purified with the quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe "QuEChERS" citrate-buffered method and analyzed with liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in positive ion mode. The linearity was satisfactory with determination coefficients (R (2)) falling between 0.9817 and 0.9999 and limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) values of 0.0007 and 0.002 mg/kg, respectively. The mean recovery rate at four spiking levels (equivalent to 5, 10, 50, and 100 × LOQ) ranged from 78.1 to 131.6% with a relative standard deviation (RSD) of < 11%. Substantial differences in the initial deposit between the tested analytes were observed and clearly indicated that the structure, as well as the initial concentration of applied products, greatly affected the residue deposit. From the obtained residual data, the provisional marginal maximum residue limits (MRLs) and the pre-harvest intervals (PHI) were proposed. Risk assessment was evaluated by comparing the theoretical maximum daily intake (TMDI) with the acceptable daily intake (ADI). Herein, the TMDI was lower than the ADI (TMDI/ADI ratio ≤ 80% set by the Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety) except for difenoconazole (80.92%, marginally higher), indicating that the vegetative amaranth is not hazardous and can be consumed safely by Korean consumers.

  11. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  12. A MAIL SURVEY APPROACH TO WATERSHED CONDITION ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Aquatic resource monitoring attempts to assess the condition of aquatic habitat and organisms. Assessments require that disturbances from human activities be identified, quantified and ordered along a gradient for interpreting biological response. An index of relative risk to a...

  13. A MAIL SURVEY APPROACH TO WATERSHED CONDITION ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Aquatic resource monitoring attempts to assess the condition of aquatic habitat and organisms. Assessments require that disturbances from human activities be identified, quantified and ordered along a gradient for interpreting biological response. An index of relative risk to a...

  14. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  15. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area.

  16. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  17. Neuroleptics under high risk conditions.

    PubMed

    Oyewumi, L K

    1983-08-01

    A critical review of various high risk situations in which neuroleptics could be used and have been used in clinical practice is presented. These high risk situations include: women of child bearing age (pregnant women, lactating and/or nursing mothers), the two extremes of life (children and the elderly), patients with sexual dysfunction, patients with tardive dyskinesia, non-psychotic psychiatric patients, physically ill and suicidal patients. The extraordinary applications of these drugs, such as for rapid tranquilization and megadose regimens are examined. The author provides guidelines for the use of neuroleptics in these clinical situations.

  18. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  19. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  20. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  1. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  2. Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baert, K.; Francois, K.; de Meulenaer, B.; Devlieghere, F.

    A risk can be defined as a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard in food (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . During a risk assessment, an estimate of the risk is obtained. The goal is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to humans due to possible exposure(s) to hazards. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard characterization, (3) exposure assessment and (4) and risk characterization (Codex Alimentarius, 1999).

  3. CAIS. Condition Assessment Information System

    SciTech Connect

    Oak, J.C.

    1996-09-30

    CAIS is used by Architects and Engineers to gather facility condition assessment data. This data consist of architectural, civil, structural, electrical, and mechanical systems and components that are a part of the inspected facility. Data is collected using a hand-held, pen-based computer system which is preprogrammed for detailed inventories of individual components. The program is deficiency based for collecting data for repair and replacement observations. Observations are recorded on checklists preformatted to individual site needs, allowing for comments on unusual conditions to be documented on site. Data is transferred to a central database, where it can be reviewed, costed, and reported on using different scenarios. Information can be transferred to the DOE operations offices as well as to the DOE FIMS database for each site.

  4. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  5. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  6. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  7. Appilications of National Wetland Condition Assessment Data ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The first National Wetland Condition Assessment (NWCA) was conducted in 2011 by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and its federal and state partners, using a survey design allowing extrapolation of results to national and regional scales. Vegetation, algae, soil, water chemistry, and hydrologic data were collected at each of 1138 locations across the contiguous US. Ecological condition was assessed in relation to a disturbance gradient anchored by least (reference) and most disturbed sites and identified using chemical, physical, and biological disturbance indices based on site-level data. A vegetation multimetric index (VMMI) was used as the indicator of condition. Potential stressors to condition were incorporated into indices of hydrologic alteration, physical alteration and a soil heavy metals, and a nonnative plant indicator. The indices were used to quantify national and regional stressor extent, and their associated relative and attributable risk. All 1138 sites sampled were placed along a quantitatively defined disturbance gradient customized by the ecoregions used in NWCA reporting. The characteristics of the 277 sites at the end of the gradient identified as least disturbed were considered reference condition. The pool of reference sites will be increased with future assessments using the definition of reference set in 2011 and can serve as a benchmark for management decisions and restoration. Approximately 48±6% of the national wetland

  8. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  9. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  10. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: INDUSTRIAL PROCESS ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Industrial Process Cooling Towers source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Industrial Process Cooling Towers source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  11. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  12. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  13. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  14. Risk Assessment for NOTES

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    Navy System Safety regulations, NAVOSH regulations (Navy Ocupational , Safety and Health ), and the Environmental Safety regulations. 13 NAVSWC TR 91...significant fields lie over navigable waterways). Health No evidence of long-term health effects of EMP exposure to operating employees has been found, even...34 10 NAVSWC TR 91-328 Identify the risks and controls that would achieve the lowest reasonably achievable risk (consider safety, health , performance

  15. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  16. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  17. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  18. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: SYNTHETIC ORGANIC ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate. Update 9/19/2006: Proposed Rule June 14, 2006 - Risk Assessment complete September 2005 and only available in the Docket.

  19. Risk assessment of dietary supplements.

    PubMed

    Boobis, Alan R

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment of dietary supplements shares many of the requirements of that for other chemicals, although there are some important differences. Amongst these is the essential nature of some nutrients so that it may be necessary to balance the need to minimize toxicological risk with the need to avoid deficiency. There may also be limitations on experimental design, in that high doses may not be achievable for nutritional reasons and available human data on toxicological hazard is likely to be very limited. Prior to embarking on a risk assessment the problem needs to be formulated. This involves risk assessors, risk managers and relevant stakeholders. A key decision is whether a risk assessment is necessary and, if so, what is required of the assessment. This will shape the nature and output of the assessment. Risk assessment itself is a scientific process comprising four steps, hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification involves determining the range of toxicological effects that might be caused by the substance, whilst hazard characterization establishes dose-response relationships, toxicological and species relevance of the findings and establishes health based guidance values. Exposure assessment involves predicting or measuring the level, pattern and duration of intake of the substance by exposed individuals. This may require dietary consumption data. Finally, risk characterization is the process whereby all of the prior information is integrated to reach conclusions in a form appropriate to the question posed. The nature of the output can take several different forms, and may be qualitative or quantitative. There are some cross-cutting issues in risk assessment, primarily on uncertainty and variability. The sources of uncertainty at each step of the risk assessment should be clearly identified and quantified to the extent possible. Variability requires that the risk assessment should

  20. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  3. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  4. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  5. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-10-16

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  7. Risk of impaired condition of watersheds containing National Forest lands

    Treesearch

    Thomas C Brown; Pamela Froemke

    2010-01-01

    We assessed the risk of impaired condition of the nearly 3700 5th-level watersheds in the contiguous 48 states containing the national forests and grasslands that make up the U.S. Forest Service's National Forest System (NFS). The assessment was based on readily available, relatively consistent nationwide data sets for a series of indicators representing watershed...

  8. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  9. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  10. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  11. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  12. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  13. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: HALOGENATED SOLVENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Halogenated Solvent Degreasing Facilities. These assessments utilize existing models and d...

  14. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  15. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  16. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  17. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  18. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  19. HIV Provider Documentation and Actions Following Patient Reports of At-risk Behaviors and Conditions When Identified by a Web-Based Point-of-Care Assessment.

    PubMed

    Crane, Heidi M; Crane, Paul K; Tufano, James T; Ralston, James D; Wilson, Ira B; Brown, Tyler D; Davis, Thomas E; Smith, Laurie F; Lober, William B; McReynolds, Justin; Dhanireddy, Shireesha; Harrington, Robert D; Rodriguez, Carla V; Nance, Robin M; Delaney, Joseph A C; Safren, Steven A; Kitahata, Mari M; Fredericksen, Rob J

    2017-02-15

    We compared same-day provider medical record documentation and interventions addressing depression and risk behaviors before and after delivering point-of-care patient-reported outcomes (PROs) feedback for patients who self-reported clinically relevant levels of depression or risk behaviors. During the study period (1 January 2006-15 October 2010), 2289 PRO assessments were completed by HIV-infected patients. Comparing the 8 months before versus after feedback implementation, providers were more likely to document depression (74% before vs. 87% after feedback, p = 0.02) in patients with moderate-to-severe depression (n = 317 assessments), at-risk alcohol use (41 vs. 64%, p = 0.04, n = 155) and substance use (60 vs. 80%, p = 0.004, n = 212). Providers were less likely to incorrectly document good adherence among patients with inadequate adherence after feedback (42 vs. 24%, p = 0.02, n = 205). While PRO feedback of depression and adherence were followed by increased provider intervention, other domains were not. Further investigation of factors associated with the gap between awareness and intervention are needed in order to bridge this divide.

  20. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  1. Groundwater abstraction pollution risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lytton, L; Howe, S; Sage, R; Greenaway, P

    2003-01-01

    A generic groundwater pollution risk assessment methodology has been developed to enable the evaluation and ranking of the potential risk of pollution to groundwater abstractions. The ranking can then be used to prioritise risk management or mitigation procedures in a robust and quantifiable framework and thus inform business investment decisions. The risk assessment consider the three components of the pollution transport model: source-pathway-receptor. For groundwater abstractions these correspond to land use (with associated pollutants and shallow subsurface characteristics), aquifer and the abstraction borehole. An hierarchical approach was chosen to allow the risk assessment to be successfully carried out with different quality data for different parts of the model. The 400-day groundwater protection zone defines the catchment boundary that form the spatial limit of the land use audit for each receptor. A risk score is obtained for each land use (potential pollution source) within the catchment. These scores are derived by considering the characteristics (such as load, persistence and toxicity) of all pollutants pertaining to each land use, their on-site management and the potential for the unsaturated subsurface to attenuate their effects in the event of a release. Risk scores are also applied to the aquifer characteristics (as pollutant pathway) and to the abstraction borehole (as pollutant receptor). Each risk score is accompanied by an uncertainty score which provides a guide to the confidence in the data used to compile the risk assessment. The application of the methodology has highlighted a number of problems in this type of work and results of initial case studies are being used to trial alternative scoring methods and a more simplified approach to accelerate the process of pollution risk assessment.

  2. Neurotoxicity in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, B.

    1988-01-01

    Neurotoxicity is a property of many metals, even those deemed biologically essential. Manganese, one of the essential elements, can induce a syndrome displaying aspects of both Parkinsonism and dystonia, but accompanied, as well, by psychological abnormalities. At low exposure levels, however, neurotoxicity may be detectable with psychological tests. Mercury vapor exposure also induces neurological signs, psychological aberrations, and subtle evidence of dysfunction on psychological tests. Methylmercury and lead are particularly toxic to the developing brain. The most recent research indicates that psychological testing may uncover deficits even in children showing no evidence of impairment. Because of their special features, neurotoxic endpoints may have to be evaluated for risks by a process that diverges significantly from the standard program based on carcinogenicity.

  3. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  4. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    PubMed

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  5. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  6. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  7. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  8. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    PubMed

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  9. Guidelines for neurotoxicity risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    These Guidelines describe the principles, concepts, and procedures that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will follow in evaluating data on potential neurotoxicity associated with exposure to environmental toxicants. The procedures outlined are intended to help develop a sound scientific basis for neurotoxicity risk assessment, promote consistency in the Agency`s assessment of toxic effects on the nervous system, and inform others of the approaches used by the Agency in those assessments.

  10. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

  11. Assessing the Conditional Reliability of State Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    May, Henry; Cole, Russell; Haimson, Josh; Perez-Johnson, Irma

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide empirical benchmarks of the conditional reliabilities of state tests for samples of the student population defined by ability level. Given that many educational interventions are targeted for samples of low performing students, schools, or districts, the primary goal of this research is to determine how…

  12. Risk assessment of manual handling operations at work with the key indicator method (KIM-MHO) - determination of criterion validity regarding the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms and clinical conditions within a cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Klussmann, Andre; Liebers, Falk; Gebhardt, Hansjürgen; Rieger, Monika A; Latza, Ute; Steinberg, Ulf

    2017-05-10

    Manual handling operations (MHO) are known to be risk factors for work-related upper limb disorders (WRULDs), e.g. symptoms and conditions such as carpal tunnel syndrome. To estimate the risk of WRULDs, a Key Indicator Method (KIM) for the risk assessment of MHO was developed. The method was validated in regard to different criteria, including face validity, criterion validity, reliability and further aspects concerning utility. This paper describes the KIM-MHO and criterion validity of this method with reference to prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). A cross-sectional sample of 643 employees exposed to MHO was compared to a reference group of 804 unexposed subjects predominantly working at visual display terminals. The Nordic Questionnaire and a standardized clinical examination were used to obtain the 7-day and 12-months prevalence of symptoms and clinical conditions of the musculoskeletal system. Job specific exposure levels to MHO were assessed by ergonomists using the KIM-MHO. The resulting risk scores were categorized into risk categories 1 - low risk (reference group), 2 - increased risk, 3 - highly increased risk, and 4 - high risk. Log-linear Poisson regression models were applied to obtain adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) with 95%-confidence intervals. The 7-day prevalence of symptoms for subjects in risk category 3 compared to risk category 1 was significant for the regions shoulder [women (w): PR 1.8 (1.2-2.7), men (m): PR 2.3 (1.2-4.4)], elbow [w: PR 3.3 (1.5-7.2), m: PR 2.4 (0.8-7.3)], and hand/wrist [w: PR 3.0 (1.7-5.3), m: PR 5.5 (2.7-11.3)]. The 7-day prevalence of symptoms for risk category 4 was also significant for the regions shoulder [w: PR 1.9 (1.3-2.8), m: PR 1.9 (1.3-2.7)], elbow [w: PR 4.5 (2.3-8.7), m: PR 3.3 (2.1-5.4)], and hand/wrist [w: PR 4.2 (2.6-6.9), m: PR 5.5 (3.5-8.5)]. The 12-months prevalence in these joint regions show comparable increases in the risk categories 3 and 4. The KIM-MHO is valid in regard to criterion

  13. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  14. Risk propensity assessment in military special operations.

    PubMed

    Sicard, B; Jouve, E; Blin, O

    2001-10-01

    Risk taking, decision making, and stress factors are strongly associated in military operations. The authors used the Bond and Lader mood and alertness scale and a new scale, Evaluation of Risks (EVAR), to assess risk proneness in a maritime counter-terrorism exercise. EVAR items are distributed among five factors: self-control, danger seeking, energy, impulsiveness, and invincibility. In the study, 10 pilots were submitted to strenuous night flights with limited sleep deprivation. Compared with baseline data, pilots reported an increase in impulsiveness, whereas EVAR factors were consistent in a control group composed of 9 navy crew member. Correlations were observed between mood and alertness and risk factors. These results illustrate how EVAR can be used to evaluate change in risk proneness in individuals submitted to various stressors. But further studies are required to weigh stress factors and environmental conditions in risk propensity with a larger population of various age and personality traits.

  15. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  16. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  17. Facility Condition Assessment from A to Z

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaleba, Frank

    2013-01-01

    This article will provide an overview of the options for performing facility condition assessments. Quite often, the facility manager will choose a condition assessment method without deliberate examination of what type of assessment is best suited to the needs of the organization. In addition, the needs of diverse audiences usually differ--for…

  18. Facility Condition Assessment from A to Z

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaleba, Frank

    2013-01-01

    This article will provide an overview of the options for performing facility condition assessments. Quite often, the facility manager will choose a condition assessment method without deliberate examination of what type of assessment is best suited to the needs of the organization. In addition, the needs of diverse audiences usually differ--for…

  19. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  1. Condition assessment of nonlinear processes

    DOEpatents

    Hively, Lee M.; Gailey, Paul C.; Protopopescu, Vladimir A.

    2002-01-01

    There is presented a reliable technique for measuring condition change in nonlinear data such as brain waves. The nonlinear data is filtered and discretized into windowed data sets. The system dynamics within each data set is represented by a sequence of connected phase-space points, and for each data set a distribution function is derived. New metrics are introduced that evaluate the distance between distribution functions. The metrics are properly renormalized to provide robust and sensitive relative measures of condition change. As an example, these measures can be used on EEG data, to provide timely discrimination between normal, preseizure, seizure, and post-seizure states in epileptic patients. Apparatus utilizing hardware or software to perform the method and provide an indicative output is also disclosed.

  2. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  3. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  4. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  5. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  6. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  7. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  8. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  9. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  10. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  11. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  12. NUREG-1150 risk assessment methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Amos, C.N.; Cunningham, M.A.; Murphy, J.A.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology developed in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NCR's) evaluation of severe accident risks in NUREG-1150. After the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2, the NRC initiated a sever accident research program to develop an improved understanding of severe accidents and to provide a second technical basis to support regulatory decisions in this area. A key product of this program is NUREG-1150, which provides estimates of risk for several nuclear reactors of different design. The principal technical analyses for NUREG-1150 were performed at Sandia National Labs. under the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program and the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program. A major aspect of the work was the development of a methodology that improved upon previous full-scale probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) in several areas which are described.

  13. Assessing potential risks of wastewater discharges to benthic biota: an integrated approach to biomarker responses in clams (Ruditapes philippinarum) exposed under controlled conditions.

    PubMed

    Maranho, L A; DelValls, T A; Martín-Díaz, M L

    2015-03-15

    Marine clams Ruditapes philippinarum were exposed under laboratory conditions to sediments sampled at five sites affected by wastewater effluents at the Bay of Cádiz (SW, Spain). Contamination and early biological stress were determined. Metabolism and antioxidant system differed according to seasons. Health status diminished in summer. Metabolism of detoxification, and oxidative effect were related to concentration of metals, PAH, secondary alkane sulfonates (SAS) and antibiotics in winter. Antioxidant system and DNA damage were linked to metals and pharmaceutical products. Phase I and antioxidant system were associated to PAH and SAS in summer. Oxidative stress and effects were related to pharmaceuticals. Phase II was linked to metals and pharmaceuticals. Seasonality of sediment contamination by organic compounds and biological responses was determined. Clams were useful bioindicators, since the set of biomarkers applied was validated as potential tools for sediment quality assessment of wastewater discharges areas.

  14. A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

    In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a

  15. National Coastal Condition Assessment Report 2010

    EPA Science Inventory

    This National Coastal Condition Assessment 2010 (NCCA 2010) is the fifth in a series of reports assessing the condition of the coastal waters of the United States, including a vast array of estuarine, Great Lakes, and coastal embayment waters. It is part of the National Aquatic R...

  16. National Coastal Condition Assessment Report 2010

    EPA Science Inventory

    This National Coastal Condition Assessment 2010 (NCCA 2010) is the fifth in a series of reports assessing the condition of the coastal waters of the United States, including a vast array of estuarine, Great Lakes, and coastal embayment waters. It is part of the National Aquatic R...

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  18. Residual determination and risk assessment of buprofezin in plum (Prunus domestica) grown in open-field conditions following the application of three different formulations.

    PubMed

    Kabir, Md Humayun; Abd El-Aty, A M; Kim, Sung-Woo; Lee, Han Sol; Rahman, Md Musfiqur; Lee, Young-Jun; Chung, Hyung Suk; Lieu, Truong; Choi, Jeong-Heui; Shin, Ho-Chul; Im, Geon-Jae; Hong, Su Myeong; Shim, Jae-Han

    2016-11-01

    This study was conducted to characterize the residual level and perform a risk assessment on buprofezin formulated as an emulsifiable concentrate, wettable powder, and suspension concentrate over various treatment schedules in plum (Prunus domestica). The samples were extracted with an AOAC quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe, 'QuEChERS', method after major modifications. As intrinsic interferences were observed in blank plum samples following dispersive-solid phase extraction (consisting of primary secondary amine and C18 sorbents), amino cartridges were used for solid-phase extraction. Analysis was carried out using liquid chromatography with diode array detection and confirmed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The method showed excellent linearity with determination coefficient (R(2)  = 1) and satisfactory recoveries (at two spiking levels, 0.5 and 2.5 mg/kg) between 90.98 and 94.74% with relative standard deviation (RSD) ≤8%. The limit of quantification (0.05 mg/kg) was considerably lower than the maximum residue limit (2 mg/kg) set by the Codex Alimentarius. Absolute residue levels for emulsifiable concentrates were highest, perhaps owing to the dilution rate and adjuvant. Notably, all formulation residues were lower than the maximum residue limit, and safety data proved that the fruits are safe for consumers. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  20. Global flood risks under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Ward, Philip; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel

    2013-04-01

    Worldwide major flood events result in both economic losses and large numbers of casualties. Recent global scale studies indicate that in many regions of the world discharge extremes are likely to increase under changing climate conditions. However, few studies have so far examined how these changes in climate conditions may affect flood risk (defined here as the probability of a flood multiplied by the consequences). In the current study we investigate the impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on flood extents and depths, and also assess the potential impacts on flood risk. The study is conducted on a global scale, thereby indicating in which regions of the world flood risk is likely to change most. To assess global food risk under changing conditions, we combined socio-economic data from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) framework of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) with high resolution maps of inundation depth (1 km). To this end, projections from a number of GCMs were bias-corrected and used to force the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB which simulates (amongst other variables) global maps with daily flood volumes on a 0.5 degree resolution. These time series were used to derive flood volume maps for multiple return periods, which were downscaled to inundation depth maps at 1 km resolution using a 1 km resolution DEM. Finally, these high resolution flood maps were combined with spatial datasets on future GDP and population density from the IMAGE model. Results are presented on both the global scale and at the country level. We believe that the obtained flood extend and flood risk maps can assist development agencies in planning climate adaptation investments that aim to reduce flood risks.

  1. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  2. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  3. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  4. Computational tool for risk assessment of nanomaterials: novel QSTR-perturbation model for simultaneous prediction of ecotoxicity and cytotoxicity of uncoated and coated nanoparticles under multiple experimental conditions.

    PubMed

    Kleandrova, Valeria V; Luan, Feng; González-Díaz, Humberto; Ruso, Juan M; Speck-Planche, Alejandro; Cordeiro, M Natália D S

    2014-12-16

    Nanomaterials have revolutionized modern science and technology due to their multiple applications in engineering, physics, chemistry, and biomedicine. Nevertheless, the use and manipulation of nanoparticles (NPs) can bring serious damages to living organisms and their ecosystems. For this reason, ecotoxicity and cytotoxicity assays are of special interest in order to determine the potential harmful effects of NPs. Processes based on ecotoxicity and cytotoxicity tests can significantly consume time and financial resources. In this sense, alternative approaches such as quantitative structure-activity/toxicity relationships (QSAR/QSTR) modeling have provided important insights for the better understanding of the biological behavior of NPs that may be responsible for causing toxicity. Until now, QSAR/QSTR models have predicted ecotoxicity or cytotoxicity separately against only one organism (bioindicator species or cell line) and have not reported information regarding the quantitative influence of characteristics other than composition or size. In this work, we developed a unified QSTR-perturbation model to simultaneously probe ecotoxicity and cytotoxicity of NPs under different experimental conditions, including diverse measures of toxicities, multiple biological targets, compositions, sizes and conditions to measure those sizes, shapes, times during which the biological targets were exposed to NPs, and coating agents. The model was created from 36488 cases (NP-NP pairs) and exhibited accuracies higher than 98% in both training and prediction sets. The model was used to predict toxicities of several NPs that were not included in the original data set. The results of the predictions suggest that the present QSTR-perturbation model can be employed as a highly promising tool for the fast and efficient assessment of ecotoxicity and cytotoxicity of NPs.

  5. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  6. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2.

    PubMed

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-04-19

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  7. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    SciTech Connect

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed.

  9. Applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.J.; Chapman, J.R.; Follen, S.M.; O'Regan, P.J. )

    1991-05-01

    This report provides a summary of potential and actual applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technology and insights. Individual applications are derived from the experiences of a number of US nuclear utilities. This report identifies numerous applications of PRA techniques beyond those typically associated with PRAs. In addition, believing that the future use of PRA techniques should not be limited to those of the past, areas of plant operations, maintenance, and financial resource allocation are discussed. 9 refs., 3 tabs.

  10. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    PubMed

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  11. Risk assessment for pulmonary resection.

    PubMed

    Brunelli, Alessandro

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessment for pulmonary resection must include a preliminary cardiac evaluation. Patients deemed at prohibitive cardiac risk should be evaluated and treated as per American Heart Association/American Society of Cardiology guidelines. Those with low cardiac risk or with optimized treatment can proceed with pulmonary assessment. A systematic measurement of lung carbon monoxide diffusing capacity is recommended. In addition, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second should not be used alone for patient selection because it is not an accurate predictor of complications, particularly in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The use of exercise testing should be emphasized. Low-technology tests, such as stair climbing, can be used whenever a formal cardiopulmonary exercise test is not readily available. However, in case of suboptimal performance (ie, <22 m in the stair-climbing test) patients should be referred to cardiopulmonary exercise testing with measurement of Vo(2max) for a better definition of their aerobic reserve. A Vo(2max) less than 10 mL/kg/min (or <35% of predicted) indicates a high risk for major lung resection.

  12. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  13. Depression in primary care: assessing suicide risk

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Chung Wai Mark; How, Choon How; Ng, Yin Ping

    2017-01-01

    Major depression is a common condition seen in the primary care setting. This article describes the suicide risk assessment of a depressed patient, including practical aspects of history-taking, consideration of factors in deciding if a patient requires immediate transfer for inpatient care and measures to be taken if the patient is not hospitalised. It follows on our earlier article about the approach to management of depression in primary care. PMID:28210741

  14. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  15. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  16. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  17. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  18. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    PubMed

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  19. SCIENCE BRIEF: CONDITION ASSESSMENT OF COLLECTION SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    To assess the condition of a collection system, data and information are gathered through observation, direct inspection, investigation, and indirect monitoring and reporting. An analysis of the data and information helps determine the structural, operational, and performance sta...

  20. SCIENCE BRIEF: CONDITION ASSESSMENT OF COLLECTION SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    To assess the condition of a collection system, data and information are gathered through observation, direct inspection, investigation, and indirect monitoring and reporting. An analysis of the data and information helps determine the structural, operational, and performance sta...

  1. Condition Assessment of Wastewater Collection Systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    This project will assist wastewater utilities with the condition assessment of their deteriorating wastewater collections systems, and will support the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Program Offices with addressing proposed capacity, management, operation and mainte...

  2. Condition Assessment for Drinking Water Systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    This project will enable a systematic approach to characterizing the value of condition assessment of drinking water mains that will provide the basis for better communication among, and decisions by, stakeholders regarding goals and priorities for research, development, and tech...

  3. Adding caries diagnosis to caries risk assessment: the next step in caries management by risk assessment (CAMBRA).

    PubMed

    Steinberg, Steven

    2009-10-01

    In the quest to conquer dental caries, caries management by risk assessment (CAMBRA) is a significant tool. Using CAMBRA methodology, the clinician identifies the cause of disease by assessing each patient's risk factors. By managing risk factors, the clinician then corrects the problems. Through the use of risk assessment, CAMBRA focuses on predicting likelihood of disease. In addition, the present condition of the patient needs to be addressed. That is to say, a diagnosis is needed. This article suggests that including a diagnosis with risk assessment adds to the understanding and improves management of dental caries. A simplified caries treatment protocol is presented, using these concepts.

  4. Risk assessment for neurobehavioral toxicity

    SciTech Connect

    McMillan, D.E.

    1987-12-01

    A study of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC) found neurobehavioral toxicity to be one of the areas where almost no data are available for the assessment of toxicity. Using the NAS/NRC report and a data base from the American Conference of Government Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH), an estimate of the number of neurobehavioral toxins in commercial chemicals can be made. Although the assumption made in making such a calculation may be invalid, the exercise suggests that the number of neurobehavioral toxins may be quite large. There does seem to be general agreement as to what type of neurobehavioral test procedures are appropriate for regulatory purposes. Select committees have consistently recommended the use of test batteries that include schedule-controlled behavior, motor activity, and neuropathological examination following in vivo perfusion, for regulatory purposes. Alkyltin data developed from such a battery were applied to the risk assessment model employed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their calculations of acceptable daily intake. Using this test battery and the EPA risk assessment model, the acceptable daily intake calculated is of the same order of magnitude as the total limit values established by the ACGIH. A number of special issues in neurobehavioral toxicity also are discussed, including the definition of adverse neurobehavioral toxic effect, species extrapolation, correlation of behavior and neuropathology, alternative methods, and quality of life issues.

  5. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  6. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  7. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2016-03-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  8. A Resilient Condition Assessment Monitoring System

    SciTech Connect

    Humberto Garcia; Wen-Chiao Lin; Semyon M. Meerkov

    2012-08-01

    An architecture and supporting methods are presented for the implementation of a resilient condition assessment monitoring system that can adaptively accommodate both cyber and physical anomalies to a monitored system under observation. In particular, the architecture includes three layers: information, assessment, and sensor selection. The information layer estimates probability distributions of process variables based on sensor measurements and assessments of the quality of sensor data. Based on these estimates, the assessment layer then employs probabilistic reasoning methods to assess the plant health. The sensor selection layer selects sensors so that assessments of the plant condition can be made within desired time periods. Resilient features of the developed system are then illustrated by simulations of a simplified power plant model, where a large portion of the sensors are under attack.

  9. Wood Condition Assessment Manual: Second Edition

    Treesearch

    Robert J. Ross; Robert H. White

    2014-01-01

    This report summarizes information on condition assessment of in-service wood, including visual inspection of wood and timbers, use of ultrasound and probing/boring techniques for inspection, and assessment of wood and timbers that have been exposed to fire. The report also includes information on assigning allowable design values for in-service wood.

  10. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  11. Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments

    Treesearch

    D. A. Weinstein; P.B. Woodbury

    2010-01-01

    We describe methodologies currently in use or those under development containing features for estimating fire occurrence risk assessment. We describe two major categories of fire risk assessment tools: those that predict fire under current conditions, assuming that vegetation, climate, and the interactions between them and fire remain relatively similar to their...

  12. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  13. Issues in the risk assessment of chromium.

    PubMed Central

    Albert, R E

    1991-01-01

    Although hexavalent chromium is well established as a human carcinogen by the inhalation route, there are significant uncertainties in the quantitative estimation of cancer risk. One of the important uncertainties is the assumption that the carcinogenic potency, determined under conditions of occupational exposure where most workers were cigarette smokers, applies to the nonsmoking individual in the general population. There is substantial evidence that carcinogenicity is a function of the rate of cell turnover in the target tissue. The chromate worker would be expected to have a relatively high rate of cell proliferation in the bronchial mucosa due to airborne irritants and smoking. The potency of chromium might therefore be relatively high under conditions of occupational exposure. This problem in quantitative risk assessment applies equally well to another important indoor pollutant, radon. PMID:1935856

  14. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  15. National Coastal Condition Assessment Report 2010 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This National Coastal Condition Assessment 2010 (NCCA 2010) is the fifth in a series of reports assessing the condition of the coastal waters of the United States, including a vast array of estuarine, Great Lakes, and coastal embayment waters. It is part of the National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS), a series of statistically based surveys designed to provide the public and decision makers with nationally consistent and representative information on the condition of all the nation’s waters. The NCCA 2010 answers questions such as: What is the condition of the nation’s coastal waters, and is that condition getting better or worse? What is the extent of the stressors affecting them?

  16. Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2007-08-01

    The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

  17. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  18. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  19. EPA's National Coastal Condition Assessment: Pilot research ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The EPA Office of Water’s 5-year cycles of national surveys of wetlands, lakes, rivers, and coastal areas help satisfy the assessment and antidegradation provisions of the Clean Water Act. Measuring extant conditions precedes measuring change in conditions. Surveys are challenged to adequately sample extreme conditions occurring in small areas. Extremely bad conditions are targets for remediation. Extremely good conditions are targets for protection. In 2010, the National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA) found the majority of the coastal Great Lakes (by area) was in good condition for water (60%) and sediment (51%) quality but not benthos (20%) and fish tissue contaminants (<1%). Low sampling success for biological sampling was an issue. As part of the 2014 Lake Erie CSMI field year, EPA’s Great Lakes National Program Office, working with the Office of Research and Development, began pilot research to integrate connecting channels into Great Lakes surveys. Assessments of the Huron-Erie corridor (HEC; 2014, 2015) and St Marys River (SMR; 2015, 2016) which have previously gone unassessed by NCCA, are being developed. Water, sediment, and benthic quality data from the 2014 HEC survey (n=60) were compared to 2010 NCCA data from adjacent lakes. Water quality rated “poor” (as % area) in HEC was intermediate compared to Lake Huron and Erie regardless of which lake-specific thresholds were used. However, the amount of area classified as “good” was highl

  20. EPA's National Coastal Condition Assessment: Pilot research ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The EPA Office of Water’s 5-year cycles of national surveys of wetlands, lakes, rivers, and coastal areas help satisfy the assessment and antidegradation provisions of the Clean Water Act. Measuring extant conditions precedes measuring change in conditions. Surveys are challenged to adequately sample extreme conditions occurring in small areas. Extremely bad conditions are targets for remediation. Extremely good conditions are targets for protection. In 2010, the National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA) found the majority of the coastal Great Lakes (by area) was in good condition for water (60%) and sediment (51%) quality but not benthos (20%) and fish tissue contaminants (<1%). Low sampling success for biological sampling was an issue. As part of the 2014 Lake Erie CSMI field year, EPA’s Great Lakes National Program Office, working with the Office of Research and Development, began pilot research to integrate connecting channels into Great Lakes surveys. Assessments of the Huron-Erie corridor (HEC; 2014, 2015) and St Marys River (SMR; 2015, 2016) which have previously gone unassessed by NCCA, are being developed. Water, sediment, and benthic quality data from the 2014 HEC survey (n=60) were compared to 2010 NCCA data from adjacent lakes. Water quality rated “poor” (as % area) in HEC was intermediate compared to Lake Huron and Erie regardless of which lake-specific thresholds were used. However, the amount of area classified as “good” was highl

  1. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  2. Tools to Assess Community-Based Cumulative Risk and Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multiple agents and stressors can interact in a given community to adversely affect human and ecological conditions. A cumulative risk assessment (CRA) analyzes, characterizes, and potentially quantifies the effects from multiple stressors, which include chemical agents (for exam...

  3. Tools to Assess Community-Based Cumulative Risk and Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multiple agents and stressors can interact in a given community to adversely affect human and ecological conditions. A cumulative risk assessment (CRA) analyzes, characterizes, and potentially quantifies the effects from multiple stressors, which include chemical agents (for exam...

  4. Bridge condition assessment using D numbers.

    PubMed

    Deng, Xinyang; Hu, Yong; Deng, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Bridge condition assessment is a complex problem influenced by many factors. The uncertain environment increases more its complexity. Due to the uncertainty in the process of assessment, one of the key problems is the representation of assessment results. Though there exists many methods that can deal with uncertain information, however, they have more or less deficiencies. In this paper, a new representation of uncertain information, called D numbers, is presented. It extends the Dempster-Shafer theory. By using D numbers, a new method is developed for the bridge condition assessment. Compared to these existing methods, the proposed method is simpler and more effective. An illustrative case is given to show the effectiveness of the new method.

  5. Bridge Condition Assessment Using D Numbers

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Bridge condition assessment is a complex problem influenced by many factors. The uncertain environment increases more its complexity. Due to the uncertainty in the process of assessment, one of the key problems is the representation of assessment results. Though there exists many methods that can deal with uncertain information, however, they have more or less deficiencies. In this paper, a new representation of uncertain information, called D numbers, is presented. It extends the Dempster-Shafer theory. By using D numbers, a new method is developed for the bridge condition assessment. Compared to these existing methods, the proposed method is simpler and more effective. An illustrative case is given to show the effectiveness of the new method. PMID:24696639

  6. The National Wetland Condition Assessment | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The first National Wetland Condition Assessment (NWCA) was conducted in 2011 by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Vegetation, algae, soil, water chemistry,and hydrologic data were collected at each of 1138 sites across the contiguous US. Ecological condition was assessed in relation to a disturbance gradient anchored by least (reference) and most disturbed sites identified using chemical, physical, and biological disturbance indices. A vegetation multimetric index (VMMI) indicated condition. Potential stressors to condition were incorporated into indices of hydrologic alteration, physical alteration and soil heavy metals, and a nonnative plant indicator. All 1138 sites sampled were placed along a quantitatively defined disturbance gradient customized by ecoregions used in reporting. The characteristics of the 277 sites identified as least disturbed were considered reference. Least disturbed sites are those with the best available condition given the current status of the landscape in which the site is located. Approximately 48±6% of the national wetland area was in good condition; 32±6% in poor condition as measured by the VMMI. Fair condition is the smallest by percent and total area nationally, in two of four regions, and by wetland type. A possible explanation of this pattern is that, we are doing a good job of protecting the best wetlands, while it’s harder to do the same for wetlands that are degraded to some degree. This results in those

  7. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    PubMed

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  8. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  9. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  10. Fuzzy based risk register for construction project risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchta, Dorota; Ptaszyńska, Ewa

    2017-07-01

    The paper contains fuzzy based risk register used to identify risks which appear in construction projects and to assess their attributes. Risk is considered here as a possible event with negative consequences for the project [4]. We use different risk attributes in the proposed risk register. Values of risk attributes are generated by using fuzzy numbers. Specific risk attributes have different importance for project managers of construction projects. To compare specific risk attributes we use methods of fuzzy numbers ranking. The main strengths of the proposed concept in managing construction projects are also presented in the paper.

  11. Advances in the assessment of suicide risk.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Craig J; Rudd, M David

    2006-02-01

    This article reviews and integrates empirically grounded advances in the assessment of suicidality. The practices discussed are consistent with existing standards of care, practice guidelines, and applicable research. The authors differentiate between risk assessment and prediction and then emphasize the important role of time in risk assessment. We present and illustrate a continuum of suicidality for risk assessment and offer practical recommendations for clinical decision making and treatment. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible.

  13. Bilastine: an environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lucero, María Luisa; Peither, Armin; Ledo, Francisco

    2015-10-01

    Bilastine is a new oral selective, non-sedating histamine H1 antagonist for the symptomatic treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. The European Medicines Agency requires an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for all novel medicines for human use. To calculate the bilastine predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PECsw; phase I ERA), and to determine the effects of bilastine on aquatic systems (phase II [tier A]). Bilastine PECsw was calculated using the maximum daily dosage (20 mg), assuming that all administered bilastine was released into the aquatic environment. A persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity assessment was conducted using the log Kow from the molecular structure. In phase II (tier A), a ready biodegradability test was performed, and bilastine's potential toxicity to various aquatic and sediment-dwelling micro-organisms was evaluated. Bilastine PECSW was calculated as 0.1 μg L(-1), and the compound was not readily biodegradable. Bilastine had no significant effects on Chironomus riparius midges, or on the respiration rate of activated sludge. For green algae, the bilastine no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was 22 mg L(-1); bilastine had no effect on zebra fish development, or on the reproduction rate of daphnids. Bilastine NOEC values against zebra fish, algae, daphnids, and aerobic organisms in activated sludge were at least 130 000-fold greater than the calculated PECSW value. No environmental concerns exist from bilastine use in patients with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis or urticaria.

  14. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects.

  15. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  16. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  17. Pressure sore risk assessment in palliative care.

    PubMed

    Chaplin, J

    2000-01-01

    Pressure sore prevention in palliative care is recognized as being an essential element of holistic care, with the primary goal of promoting quality of life for patient and family. Little is known about the incidence of pressure sore development and the use of pressure sore risk assessment tools in palliative care settings. The development of a risk assessment tool specifically for palliative care patients in a 41-bedded specialist palliative care unit is described. The risk assessment tool was developed as part of a tissue viability practice development initiative. The approach adopted in the validation of the Hunters Hill Marie Curie Centre pressure sore risk assessment tool was the comparative analysis of professional judgment of experienced palliative care nurses with the numerical scores achieved during the assessment of risk on 291 patients (529 risk assessment events). This comparative analysis identified the threshold for different degrees of risk for the patient group involved: low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Further work is being undertaken to evaluate the inter-rater reliability of the new tool. A number of issues are explored in this paper in relation to pressure sore prevention in palliative care: the role of risk assessment tools, the sometimes conflicting aims of trying to ensure comfort and prevent pressure sore damage, and the uncertainties faced by palliative care nurses when they are trying to maintain quality of life for the dying.

  18. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  19. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  20. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  1. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  2. Early warning and crop condition assessment research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

    1986-01-01

    The Early Warning Crop Condition Assessment Project of AgRISTARS was a multiagency and multidisciplinary effort. Its mission and objectives were centered around development and testing of remote-sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for global crop-condition assessments. The project developed crop stress indicators models that provide data filter and alert capabilities for monitoring global agricultural conditions. The project developed a technique for using NOAA-n satellite advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for operational crop-condition assessments. This technology was transferred to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. The project developed a U.S. Great Plains data base that contains various meteorological parameters and vegetative index numbers (VIN) derived from AVHRR satellite data. It developed cloud screening techniques and scan angle correction models for AVHRR data. It also developed technology for using remotely acquired thermal data for crop water stress indicator modeling. The project provided basic technology including spectral characteristics of soils, water, stressed and nonstressed crop and range vegetation, solar zenith angle, and atmospheric and canopy structure effects.

  3. Early warning and crop condition assessment research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

    1986-01-01

    The Early Warning Crop Condition Assessment Project of AgRISTARS was a multiagency and multidisciplinary effort. Its mission and objectives were centered around development and testing of remote-sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for global crop-condition assessments. The project developed crop stress indicators models that provide data filter and alert capabilities for monitoring global agricultural conditions. The project developed a technique for using NOAA-n satellite advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for operational crop-condition assessments. This technology was transferred to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. The project developed a U.S. Great Plains data base that contains various meteorological parameters and vegetative index numbers (VIN) derived from AVHRR satellite data. It developed cloud screening techniques and scan angle correction models for AVHRR data. It also developed technology for using remotely acquired thermal data for crop water stress indicator modeling. The project provided basic technology including spectral characteristics of soils, water, stressed and nonstressed crop and range vegetation, solar zenith angle, and atmospheric and canopy structure effects.

  4. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  5. Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

  6. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  7. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  8. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  9. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  10. Cumulative Assessment of Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  11. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  12. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  13. Integrated risk assessment and endocrine disrupters.

    PubMed

    Bridges, J W; Bridges, Olga

    2004-12-01

    1. The procedures currently employed for risk assessment are unlikely to be sustainable in the future for a variety of reasons. A number of actions are needed to remedy the situation and the most important of these actions are: * to improve access to existing data; * to introduce a prioritisation system based on exposure assessment; * to co-ordinate and harmonise approaches of different organisations involved in risk assessment. 2. Integration of information and methodologies between human health risk assessment and ecological risk assessment (integrated risk assessment) is advocated in this paper as one of the most important steps towards a holistic and effective way of conducting a risk assessment. 3. A framework is proposed for identification of agents for which an integrated risk assessment would be of particular value. Close collaboration across disciplines and across countries is necessary for the potential of integrated risk assessment to be realised in practice. The practicality of applying integrated risk assessment to endocrine disrupting agents is presently being investigated in an EU funded multi-laboratory collaborative study (CREDO).

  14. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  15. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  16. Proceedings of the 2006 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference: Applying Mode of Action in Risk Assessment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-07-01

    Ecological Risk Assessment; Benchmark Dose Methods ; Fundamentals of Risk Assessment; and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tools for Managing Complex...Tomato; I Say Lampshade - Different Methods and Mechanisms for Health Risk Assessment.” The program, which is included in this report, gives an...cutting edge chemical mixture health risk assessment risk issues, explanation of state-of-the-art methods , and hands on exercises for several

  17. Issues in risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The volume is the first in a series to be prepared by the Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology (CRAM) in the National Research Council's Board on Enviromental Studies and Toxicology. Three issues related to risk assessment are addressed here: use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in animal bioassays for carcinogenicity, the two-state model of carcinogenesis, and a paradigm for ecologic risk assessment.

  18. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

  19. Material condition assessment with eddy current sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldfine, Neil J. (Inventor); Washabaugh, Andrew P. (Inventor); Sheiretov, Yanko K. (Inventor); Schlicker, Darrell E. (Inventor); Lyons, Robert J. (Inventor); Windoloski, Mark D. (Inventor); Craven, Christopher A. (Inventor); Tsukernik, Vladimir B. (Inventor); Grundy, David C. (Inventor)

    2010-01-01

    Eddy current sensors and sensor arrays are used for process quality and material condition assessment of conducting materials. In an embodiment, changes in spatially registered high resolution images taken before and after cold work processing reflect the quality of the process, such as intensity and coverage. These images also permit the suppression or removal of local outlier variations. Anisotropy in a material property, such as magnetic permeability or electrical conductivity, can be intentionally introduced and used to assess material condition resulting from an operation, such as a cold work or heat treatment. The anisotropy is determined by sensors that provide directional property measurements. The sensor directionality arises from constructs that use a linear conducting drive segment to impose the magnetic field in a test material. Maintaining the orientation of this drive segment, and associated sense elements, relative to a material edge provides enhanced sensitivity for crack detection at edges.

  20. [Risk assessment on laboratory biosafety of Leishmania].

    PubMed

    Xiong, Yan-Hong; Guan, Ya-Yi; Cao, Jian-Ping

    2012-06-01

    To provide the evidence for improving the risk assessment and personal protective equipment and techniques to laboratory staff related to Leishmania. The laboratory biosafety of Leishmania was preliminarily assessed based on the biological background information, potential hazards in experimental activities, the risk analyses of laboratory personnel and other relevant factors. The risk assessment on laboratory biosafety of Leishmania was helpful for the establishment of the laboratory standard operating procedure, and was helpful for protecting the staff from infection of Leishmania. The risk assessment on laboratory biosafety is important to the safety of laboratory activity related to Leishmania, and is of a great significance to protect the laboratory staff.

  1. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  2. Advances in risk assessment and communication.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Bernard D

    2005-01-01

    Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

  3. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  4. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  5. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  6. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  7. Heart Conditions and Pregnancy: Know the Risks

    MedlinePlus

    ... week by week Pregnancy stresses your heart and circulatory system, but many women who have heart conditions deliver ... conditions and pregnancy. Pregnancy stresses your heart and circulatory system. During pregnancy, your blood volume increases by 30 ...

  8. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  9. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  10. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  11. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor Assessment Tool: Developing Monthly Crop Condition Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGaughey, K.; Becker Reshef, I.; Barker, B.; Humber, M. L.; Nordling, J.; Justice, C. O.; Deshayes, M.

    2014-12-01

    The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM) to improve existing agricultural information through a network of international partnerships, data sharing, and operational research. This presentation will discuss the Crop Monitor component of GEOGLAM, which provides the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) with an international, multi-source, and transparent consensus assessment of crop growing conditions, status, and agro-climatic conditions likely to impact global production. This activity covers the four primary crop types (wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) within the main agricultural producing regions of the AMIS countries. These assessments have been produced operationally since September 2013 and are published in the AMIS Market Monitor Bulletin. The Crop Monitor reports provide cartographic and textual summaries of crop conditions as of the 28th of each month, according to crop type. This presentation will focus on the building of international networks, data collection, and data dissemination.

  12. Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slack, Kelley J.; Schneiderman, Jason S.; Leveton, Lauren B.; Whitmire, Alexandra M.; Picano, James J.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA commitment to human space flight includes continuing to fly astronauts on the ISS until it is decommissioned as well as possibly returning astronauts to the moon or having astronauts venture to an asteroid or Mars. As missions leave low Earth orbit and explore deeper space, BHP supports and conducts research to enable a risk posture that considers the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders “acceptable given mitigations,” for pre-, in, and post-flight.The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) determines the risk of various mission scenarios using a likelihood (per person per year) by consequences matrix examining those risks across two categories—long term health and operational (within mission). Colors from a stoplight signal are used by HSRB and quickly provide a means of assessing overall perceived risk for a particular mission scenario. Risk associated with the current six month missions on the ISS are classified as “accepted with monitoring” while planetary missions, such as a mission to Mars, are recognized to be a “red” risk that requires mitigation to ensure mission success.Currently, the HSRB deems that the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric outcomes requires mitigation for planetary missions owing to long duration isolation and radiation exposure (see Table 1). While limited research evidence exists from spaceflight, it is well known anecdotally that the shift from the two week shuttle missions to the six month ISS missions renders the psychological stressors of space as more salient over longer duration missions. Shuttle astronauts were expected just to tolerate any stressors that arose during their mission and were successful at doing so (Whitmire et al, 2013). While it is possible to deal with stressors such as social isolation and to live with incompatible crewmembers for two weeks on shuttle, “ignoring it” is much less likely to be a successful coping mechanism

  13. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  14. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  15. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

  16. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  17. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  18. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  19. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  20. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  1. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  2. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  3. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  4. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  5. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  6. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: PCE DRY CLEANERS ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessement for the Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners source category. For stationary sources, section 112(f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate additional standards. The purpose of this document is to describe the methodology and results of teh residual risk assessment performed for the Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners source category. The results of this analysis will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  7. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  8. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  9. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  10. Assessing semantic coherence in conditional probability estimates

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, Christopher R.

    2013-01-01

    Semantic coherence is a higher-order coherence benchmark that assesses whether a constellation of estimates—P(A), P(B), P(B | A), and P(A | B)—maps onto the relationship between sets implied by the description of a given problem. We present an automated method for evaluating semantic coherence in conditional probability estimates that efficiently reduces a large problem space into five meaningful patterns: identical sets, subsets, mutually exclusive sets, overlapping sets, and independent sets. It also identifies three theoretically interesting nonfallacious errors. We discuss unique issues in evaluating semantic coherence in conditional probabilities that are not present in joint probability judgments, such as errors resulting from dividing by zero and the use of a tolerance parameter to manage rounding errors. A spreadsheet implementing the methods described above can be downloaded as a supplement from www.springerlink.com. PMID:21512870

  11. Evaluation of effect of different membership functions on risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Atalay, Kumru Didem; Can, Gülin Feryal; Eraslan, Ergün

    2017-03-23

    This study aims to define the relationship between risk degrees and risk indexes on different functional structures with the assumption that, risk degrees may not always present linear relationship with the risk indexes. In this wise, risk indexes; suitable for expert evaluation of working conditions and computed by using three different membership functions are determined. Among the membership functions used, one of them is preferred as linear and the others are preferred as nonlinear. Additionally, a new fuzzy risk assessment (RA) algorithm is developed by using these three membership functions. With this new fuzzy RA algorithm, a more flexible and precise process becomes available, while information loss during the determination of the risk index of danger sources is prevented. As a result, nonlinear increasing membership function is selected as the most suitable one for the expression of relationship between risk degrees and risk indexes.

  12. Guidelines for Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These Guidelines set forth principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in evaluating environmental contaminants that may pose neurotoxic risks, and inform Agency decision makers and the public about these procedures.

  13. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    MedlinePlus

    ... Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page Options Print Page Quick Links Colon and Rectal Cancer Home Page Colon and Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps ...

  14. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  15. Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dong; Liu, Jing; Xie, Wuxiang; Qi, Yue

    2015-05-01

    An important strategy in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the early identification of high-risk individuals. Effective implementation of a strategy to identify these individuals in a clinical setting is reliant on the availability of appropriate CVD risk-assessment models and guideline recommendations. Several well-known models for CVD risk assessment have been developed and utilized in the USA and Europe, but might not be suitable for use in other regions or countries. Very few reports have discussed the development of risk-assessment models and recommendations from a global perspective. In this Review, we discuss why risk-assessment methods developed from studies in one geographical region or ethnic population might not be suitable for other regions or populations, and examine the availability and characteristics of predictive models in areas beyond the USA or Europe. In addition, we compare the differences in risk-assessment recommendations outlined in CVD clinical guidelines from developed and developing countries, and consider their potential effect on clinical practice. This overview of cardiovascular risk assessment from a global perspective can potentially guide low-to-middle-income countries in the development or validation of their own CVD risk-assessment models, and the formulation of recommendations in their own clinical guidelines according to local requirements.

  16. Values in science and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wandall, Birgitte

    2004-09-25

    It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains value judgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science's epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment. It is concluded that since risk assessment is no less value-laden than pure science, it is important (a) that risk assessors become aware of what values they are (often implicitly) relying on, (b) that the values are justifiable, and (c) that transparency is ensured, i.e. that the values and value-based assumptions applied in particular risk assessments are explicitly acknowledged.

  17. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

    PubMed Central

    Kaufman, Leyla V.; Wright, Mark G.

    2017-01-01

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments. PMID:28686180

  18. Peat drainage conditions assessment in Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poggio, Laura; Artz, Rebekka; Donaldson-Selby, Gillian; Aitkenhead, Matt; Donnelly, David; Gimona, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Large areas of Scotland are covered in peat, providing an important sink of carbon but also a notable source of emission where peatlands are not in good condition. However, despite data from designated sites that peat degradation is common, a detailed spatial assessment of the condition of most peatlands across the whole of Scotland is missing. An assessment of peatland drainage was carried out at >600 random sampling locations with an expert-based estimation of presence or absence of drainage ditches within a 500 metre block using 25 cm resolution aerial imagery. The resulting dataset was modelled using a scorpan-kriging approach, in particular using Generalised Additive Models for the description of the trend. Remote sensing images from different sensors (i.e. MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel 1 and 2) were used. In particular we used indices describing vegetation greenness (Enhanced Vegetation Index), water availability (Normalised Water Difference index), Land Surface Temperature and vegetation productivity. When considering MODIS indices we used time series and phenological summaries. The model provides also uncertainty of the estimations. The derived dataset can then be used in the decision making process for the selection of sites for restoration, emissions estimation and accounting.

  19. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  20. Risk assessment of malicious biocontamination of food.

    PubMed

    Elad, Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Throughout the last decades of the 20th century, the biological threat evolved from primarily a government-controlled weapon to a tool of terrorism. One of the consequences of this trend is the near impossibility of foreseeing when and how an act of bioterrorism will occur. The suitability of food products for such an act stems from the multitude of microorganisms that may be used for contamination and the vulnerability of the products during and after processing. Tests that would enable the detection of a large variety of microorganisms quickly, reliably, and economically should also provide satisfactory means to prevent acts of malicious biocontamination of food products. Until such means become available, a priority-based approach to the problem is probably the most practical. Priorities should be determined based on a systematic risk assessment to define the relative likelihood of a certain microorganism being used in an act of malicious food contamination. Criteria to be evaluated are availability, weaponization processes, delivery of an effective dose, probability of early detection, and the microorganism's resistance to the conditions to which it will be exposed. Because the results of such an assessment may vary according to prevailing conditions, the assessment must be based on the existing circumstances. The results of the assessment should then be applied to the various procedures of food processing, which should further reduce the number of potential microbial threats. Existing methods of screening food for contaminating microorganisms and existing food safety and security procedures such as hazard analysis and critical control point programs may have to be modified to become suitable for the detection of acts of bioterrorism.

  1. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

  2. Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

    PubMed

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

    2014-05-01

    To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

  3. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  4. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment: Problem Formulation

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

  5. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  6. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, P<0.001) . Evaluation results of two risk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  7. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  8. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  9. Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes.

    PubMed

    Rettenberger, Martin; Matthes, Anna; Boer, Douglas P; Eher, Reinhard

    2010-04-01

    This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

  10. [Risk assessment of periodontal disease in Hungary].

    PubMed

    Hermann, Péter; Borbély, Judit; Gera, István; Fejérdy, Pál; Soós, Borbála; Madléna, Melinda

    2011-06-01

    In this study, risk determinants were assessed for periodontal disease in the oral health survey of a representative Hungarian adult population sample. 4153 individuals participated in the study after formal consent. Participants were questionned on level of education, dental office attendance, smoking habits, oral hygiene habits and general health conditions. Quality of fixed partial dentures (FPD) were evaluated. Periodontal health status was assessed with the CPI method according to WHO criteria. When the prevalence of CPI scores was assessed by educational level, significant differences were found between groups. With increasing levels of education, a significantly higher percentage of subjects visited the dental office regularly. Higher prevalence of CPI 0 was found among those with higher level of education but there was also high prevalence of CPI 2, representing bad oral hygiene in the highly educated group. Findings of our study showed high percentage (66%) of the population attending the dental office only in case of emergency. The investigation revealed destructive effect of unsatisfactory construction of FPD on the periodontium. Healthy periodontium (CPI 0) was found among 16% of those wearing no FPD and 9% among FPD-wearers. The prevalence of deep periodontal pockets (CPI 4) was 1,6 times higher among smokers as non-smokers. Oral health statistics play an important role in planning for improvement of dental health care. Hungary needs effective prevention programs and emphasize on regular dental office attendance of individuals to improve the nation's oral health status.

  11. [Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

    PubMed

    Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

    2013-02-01

    Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

  12. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  13. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  14. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  15. ASSESSING WATERBORNE RISKS: AN INTRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Information in this article can help readers evaluate the results of epidemiologic studies of

    waterborne disease risks. It is important that readers understand the various epidemiologic study

    designs, their strengths and limitations, and potential biases. Terminolog...

  16. [HYGIENIC ASSESSMENT OF WORKING CONDITIONS OF EMPLOYEES OF BROADCASTING CENTER].

    PubMed

    Kovalenko, A V; Brusentsova, A V; Sokhoshko, I A; Rostikov, V P

    2015-01-01

    Hygienic assessment of working conditions of employees of the Omsk Regional Broadcasting Centre was performed on data of the analysis of materials of certification of workplaces. There were examined materials concerning 65 core profile workplaces, where 130 persons, including 35 women work. There was determined health risk for personnel in dependence on working conditions. The staff was noted to be exposed to the adverse impact of the following factors: chemical, physical (noise, general and local vibration, non-ionizing radiation, microclimate, lighting), severity and intensity ofwork. Class working conditions for 13,5% of workplaces on noise, 35.4% on non-ionizing radiation was assessed as a harmful of the first degree. Lightness indices at 78.5% of the workplaces did not meet the requirements of sanitary norms. At 7.7% of the workplaces levels of hardness of labor were assessed as harmful. The impact of such factors as biological, infrasound, ultrasound, ionizing radiation, aerosols with mainly fibrogenic action, was absent, their assessment was not carried out. Working conditions at 83.1% of workplaces were characterized as hazardous, including at 52.3% of the workplaces where there was established hazard class 3.1, at 30.7% of workplaces--Class 3.2. Among all the factors of occupational environment the largest contribution into the overall assessment of working conditions was made by the lightness factor (50.9%) and non-ionizing radiation (20.6%). The most harmful working conditions have been identified for workplaces of the operator of masthead antenna, engineer of radiocommunications, broadcasting and television, electromechanician of television (radiocommunication), (broadcasting), car driver.

  17. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  18. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Biwer, B M; Butler, J P

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  19. Risk assessing study for Bio-CCS technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, A.; Sakamoto, Y.; Kano, Y.; Higashino, H.; Suzumura, M.; Tosha, T.; Nakao, S.; Komai, T.

    2013-12-01

    We have started a new R&D project titled 'Energy resources creation by geo-microbes and CCS'. It is new concept of a technology which cultivate methanogenic geo-microbes in reservoirs of geological CCS conditions to produce methane gas effectively and safely. As one of feasibility studies, we are evaluating risks around its new Bio-CCS technology. Our consideration involves risk scenarios about Bio-CCS in geological strata, marine environment, surface facilities, ambient air and injection sites. To cover risk scenarios in these areas, we are carrying out a sub-project with five sub-themes. Four sub-themes out of five are researches for identifying risk scenarios: A) Underground strata and injection well, B) Ambient air, C) Surface facilities and D) Seabed. We are developing risk assessment tool,named GERAS-CO2GS (Geo-environmental Risk Assessment System,CO2 Geological Storage Risk Assessment System. We are going to combine identified risk scenarios into GERAS-CO2GS accordingly. It is expected that new GERAS-CO2GS will contribute to risk assessment and management for not only Bio-CCS but also individual injection sites, and facilitate under standing of risks among legislators and concerned peoples around injection site.

  20. Physical characterization of MMVF for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Schneider, T

    1995-10-01

    Size and other physical properties of MMVF play a central role in risk assessment. They can be affected by, for example, conditions during manufacturing, and preparation prior to administration to experimental animals or cells. It is suggested that a necessary requirement for stating that an experiment has been repeated should be documented evidence that: (i) the administered fibres are alike when analysed with not less than a minimum number of well-established methods on single fibre and on bulk sample level; and (ii) doses must be equal, and the fibre concentrations and sizes at the primary target tissue must be documented. Assessment of fibre toxicity and assessment of potential for exposure are equally important in the risk assessment process. The physics of fibrous dust release is described and methods for a priori assessment of exposure are classified into three levels depending on the analytical effort involved: (1) direct analysis of the fibrous bulk material; (2) bench-scale test; and (3) full-scale tests of prefabricated insulation material in a test room during standardized insulation work. For the first method, two approaches are investigated. One relates the size-dependent measures (the mass of fibres with D < 3 microns, the total length of fibres with D < 3 microns and the total number of WHO fibres per unit mass of fibres) and the other considers fractions (the fraction of total fibre length with D < 3 microns, the fraction of WHO fibre number, and the fraction of fibre number with D < 3 microns). The values of the size-dependent measures that are quoted span 2-4 orders of magnitude for the ranges of nominal diameter and GSD(D) considered, and show strong and similar dependence on GSD(D). The second group of measures, based on fractions only range up to 2 orders of magnitude and are almost independent on GSD(D) for nominal diameters ranging 2-4 microns. The combined effect on exposure of bulk fibre size, and of addition of oil and binder, should be

  1. Assessing Risk in Graphically Presented Financial Series.

    PubMed

    Sobolev, Daphne; Harvey, Nigel

    2016-12-01

    It has been argued that traders use their natural sensitivity to the fractal properties of price graphs to assess risk and that they are better able to do this when given price change as well as price level information. This approach implies that risk assessments should be higher when the Hurst exponents are lower, that this relationship should be stronger in the presence of price change information and that risk assessment should depend more strongly on the Hurst exponent than on the standard deviation of the series. Participants in Experiment 1 decided which of two assets was riskier by inspecting graphs of their price series. Graphs with lower Hurst exponents were selected only by those who were less emotionally stable and hence more sensitive to risk. However, when both price series and price change series were presented, the assets with lower Hurst exponents were selected by all participants. In a second experiment, participants were given both price level and price change series for a number of assets and rated the risk of trading in each one. Ratings depended more strongly on Hurst exponents than on other measures of volatility. They also depended on indicators of potential loss. Human risk assessment deviates from the way that risk is measured in modern finance theory: it requires integration of information relevant to both uncertainty and loss aversion, thereby imposing high attentional demands on traders. These demands may impair risk assessment but they can be eased by adding displays of price change information.

  2. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  3. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  4. USE OF TOXICOGENOMICS DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The goal of this project is to address the question, “Can existing toxicogenomics (TG) data improve Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chemical health or risk assessments?” Although genomics data promises to impact multiple areas of science, medicine, law, and policy, there are only a few areas where genomics data currently has application (e.g., biomarkers of disease). As the technology continues to advance, EPA will need to prepare for genomics data availability and submission by: 1) identifying areas of risk assessment where such data may be particularly useful; 2) developing acceptance criteria for inclusion of toxicogenomics data in risk assessment; and 3) developing approaches for the use of toxicogenomics in risk assessment. These needs will likely require an iterative and collaborative research process between risk assessors and scientists (inside and outside the Agency). At the NCEA sponsored Genomics and Risk Assessment Colloquium in 2003, one of the recommendations was to conduct case studies that could provide a practical attempt to incorporate currently available toxicogenomics data that would illuminate issues and the methods development. This project is responds to this recommendation. To address the question of whether TG data can improve health risk assessments, a case study will be performed in which TG data for one chemical will be incorporated qualitatively within the hazard characterization step of a recent or ongoing EPA chemical he

  5. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  6. C - Reactive Protein, Inflammatory Conditions and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Dhingra, Ravi; Gona, Philimon; Nam, Byung-Ho; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Wilson, Peter W. F.; Benjamin, Emelia J.; O’Donnell, Christopher J.

    2007-01-01

    Background It is uncertain to what extent high C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations reflect the presence of inflammatory conditions in the community. Methods We evaluated 3782 Framingham participants (mean age 55 years; 52% women) free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Logistic regression models examined the prevalence of common inflammatory conditions by CRP categories whereas a separate matched case-referent analysis evaluated the prevalence of uncommon inflammatory conditions. Cox models were used to assess the influence of common inflammatory conditions on relations between CRP and incident cardiovascular disease. Results Common inflammatory conditions were reported by nearly half of the participants; these individuals were more likely to have markedly-high CRP concentrations (>10mg/L, P for trend=0.001). In multivariable models, there were increased odds of having at least one common inflammatory condition with CRP concentrations of 1–3.0, 3.01–10, and >10mg/L, compared to the referent category (<1mg/L); the respective odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were 1.41 (1.07–1.86), 1.45 (1.07–2.98) and 1.64 (1.09–2.47) in men, and 1.08 (0.82–1.43), 1.07 (0.80–1.44) and 1.38 (0.97–1.96) in women. In case-referent analyses, uncommon inflammatory conditions were more common in individuals with CRP >10mg/L compared to those with CRP <1mg/L (12.1% versus 6.6%; P=0.0001). In multivariable models, higher CRP categories were not associated with incident cardiovascular disease, and with additional adjustment for inflammatory conditions, results remained unchanged. Conclusion There is high prevalence of common and uncommon inflammatory conditions in individuals with high CRP concentrations. Higher CRP concentrations should be interpreted with caution in cardiovascular disease risk assessment. PMID:18060926

  7. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  8. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  9. NUREG-1150 risk assessment results

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Kunsman, D.M.; Boyd, G.J.; Lewis, S.R.; Amos, C.N.; Smith, L.N.

    1987-01-01

    The methodology developed in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) evaluation of severe accident risks in NUREG-1150 is noted. This paper discusses the results. The principal technical analyses for NUREG-1150 were performed at Sandia National Labs. under the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program and the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program. The analyses have been completed so far for four reference plants: (a) a pressurized water reactor (PWR) with a dry, subatmospheric containment (Surry Unit 1), (b) a PWR with an ice condenser containment (Sequoyah Unit 1), (c) a boiling water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment (Peach Bottom Unit 2), and (d) a BWR with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf Unit 1). A fifth NUREG-1150 plant, a PWR with a large, dry containment (Zion Unit 1), has been evaluated separately by Brookhaven National Lab. Sample risk results for one of the plants (Surry) are presented. The results for Sequoyah, Peach Bottom, and Grand Gulf are broadly compared with those for Surry.

  10. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Kapoor, A. K.

    2003-02-27

    In an attempt to bring forth increased efficiency and effectiveness in assessing transportation risks associated with radioactive materials or wastes, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program (NTP) published a resource handbook in 2002. The handbook draws from the broad technical expertise among DOE national laboratories and industry, which reflects the extensive experience gained from DOE's efforts in conducting assessments (i.e., environmental impact assessments) within the context of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in the past 20 years. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information regarding the approach and basis for conducting transportation risk assessments under normal or accidental conditions that are associated with shipping radioactive materials or wastes. It is useful as a reference to DOE managers, NEPA assessors, technical analysts, contractors, and also stakeholders. It provides a summary of pertinent U.S. policies and regulations on the shipment of radioactive materials, existing guidance on preparing transportation risk assessments, a review of previous transportation risk assessments by DOE and others, a description of comprehensive and generally accepted transportation risk assessment methodologies, and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and assumptions. The handbook also provides a discussion paper on an issue that has been identified as being important in the past. The discussion paper focuses on cumulative impacts, illustrating the ongoing evolution of transportation risk assessment. The discussion may be expanded in the future as emerging issues are identified. The handbook will be maintained and periodically updated to provide current and accurate information.

  11. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  12. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  13. Assessing risk assessment: genetic testing and screening for complex disease.

    PubMed

    Cox, S M

    2006-11-01

    This paper reports on the presentations from the second session of a 2-day workshop on genetic diversity and science communication, organized by the Institute of Genetics. The four talks in this session (by Sarah Cunningham-Burley, Gail Geller, Michael Hayden, and Theresa Marteau) focused on the topic of risk assessment in the context of genetic testing, screening and preventive medicine for complex disease. Each talk underscored the urgency and importance of evaluating when and for whom risk assessment may be useful. A recurrent theme was the need to attend closely to the diverse ways that risk is constructed, perceived and communicated in a variety of contexts and the significant implications of this for laypersons as well as experts. Although there was no consensus on when genetic risk assessment ceases (or might begin) to be useful, ensuing dialogue between presenters and participants reflected what is perhaps a new and critical engagement with how risk assessment itself is assessed. In response to this impetus, I use the word RISK as a heuristic to identify, extract and amplify four tendencies that appear to advance understandings of risk assessment towards a more explicitly reflexive, interpretive, and situated form of knowing.

  14. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-01

    RFI - Request for Information...Cost Uncertainty S&T Community • Identify Technologies • Assess Readiness Levels PM •System Concepts •Program ScheduleIn p u ts to R is k A ss...es sm en t Develop Cost Estimate S u m m a ri ze R is k A s s e s s m e n ts In te rd e p e n d e n c ie s 14 o Assess the transition times

  15. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has a new risk assessment framework for bees as part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, which relies on a tiered process, focuses on major routes of exposure, and distinguishes different types of pesticide treatment.

  16. Guidelines for Reproductive Toxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These guidelines discuss the scientific basis for concern about exposure to agents that cause reproductive toxicity and describe the principles and procedures to be followed in conducting risk assessments for reproductive toxicity.

  17. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John; Mitchell, Roger; Binning, David; Meszaros, Jenny

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  18. Salivary Biomarkers for Caries Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Lihong; Shi, Wenyuan

    2013-01-01

    Saliva contains various microbes and host biological components that could be used for caries risk assessment. This review focuses on the research topics that connect dental caries with saliva, including both the microbial and host components within saliva. PMID:23505756

  19. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  20. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  1. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  2. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  3. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  4. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  5. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Pedersen, Marianne Bruus

    2006-01-01

    This review has described three cases of ecological risk assessment. The cases include two heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and an anthropogenic organic chemical (DDT). It concludes that there are at least two major constraints hampering the use of laboratory tests to predict effects under natural field conditions. One key issue is bioavailability, and another is suboptimal conditions or multiple stresses in the field such as climatic stress (drought, frost), predators, competition, or food shortage. On the basis of the presented case studies, it was possible to answer three essential questions often raised in connection to ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites. 1. To what extend does soil screening level (SSL) estimate the risk? The SSL are generally derived at levels corresponding to the lowest observed effect levels in laboratory studies, which often is close to the background levels found in many soils. In the cases of zinc and especially DDT, the SSL seemed quite conservative, whereas for copper they resemble the level at which changes in the community structure of soil microarthropods and the plant community have been observed at contaminated sites. The SSL correspond as a whole relatively well with concentrations where no effects or only minor effects were observed in controlled field studies. However, large variation in field surveys can often make it difficult to conclude to what extent the SSL corresponded to no-effect levels in the field. 2. Do bioassays represent a more realistic risk estimate? Here, there is no firm conclusion. The zinc study in UK showed a better relationship between the outcome of ex situ bioassays and field observations than the SSL. The latter overestimated the risk compared to field observations. However, this would be species dependent, as the sensitivity to metals may vary considerably between recognized test species, even within the same group of organisms, such as Folsomia candida and Folsomia fimetaria or Eisenia fetida

  6. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  7. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  8. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  9. [Risk assessment in upper limb overload].

    PubMed

    Martinelli, R; Casilli, A; Fanelli, C; Pizzuti, S; Tarquini, M; Tobia, L; Paoletti, A

    2007-01-01

    One of the most important factors of the work-related musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremities (WMSDs) is the biomechanical overload. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the possibility to predict the upper limb repetitive stress, according to risk assessment procedures. In order to this aim, we gathered clinical-anamnestic data and risk assessment considerations of a cohort of workers in a car industry.

  10. Risk assessment as standard work in design.

    PubMed

    Morrill, Patricia W

    2013-01-01

    This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

  11. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  12. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor destroyed by biological a...

  13. Threat Based Risk Assessment for Enterprise Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-02-15

    Threat-Based Risk Assessment for Enterprise Networks Richard P. Lippmann and James F. Riordan Protecting enterprise networks requires... enterprises to make sure that risks from all current threats are addressed, many organizations adopt a best-practices approach by installing popular...effective when performed by skilled security practitioners who understand an enterprise network, can enumerate all threats and their likelihoods, and

  14. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  15. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  16. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  17. Preoperative optimization and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Nicholas, Joseph A

    2014-05-01

    Because most older adults with hip fractures require urgent surgical intervention, the preoperative medical evaluation focuses on the exclusion of the small number of contraindications to surgery, and rapid optimization of patients for operative repair. Although many geriatric fracture patients have significant chronic medical comorbidities, most patients can be safely stabilized for surgery with medical and orthopedic comanagement by anticipating a small number of common physiologic responses and perioperative complications. In addition to estimating perioperative risk, the team should focus on intravascular volume restoration, pain control, and avoidance of perioperative hypotension. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  19. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  20. 24 CFR 902.30 - Financial condition assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... DEVELOPMENT PUBLIC HOUSING ASSESSMENT SYSTEM PHAS Indicator #2: Financial Condition § 902.30 Financial condition assessment. (a) Objective. The objective of the Financial Condition Indicator is to measure the... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Financial condition assessment....

  1. 24 CFR 902.20 - Physical condition assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Physical condition assessment. 902... DEVELOPMENT PUBLIC HOUSING ASSESSMENT SYSTEM PHAS Indicator #1: Physical Condition § 902.20 Physical condition assessment. (a) Objective. The objective of the Physical Condition Indicator is to determine whether a PHA...

  2. Hurricane flood risk in New York City - a detailed risk assessment of future risks and validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, Hans; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Botzen, Wouter; Aerts, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    Hurricane Irene in 2011 and hurricane Sandy in 2012 showed all too clearly how vulnerable New York City (NYC) and the east coast of continental USA is to the devastating effects of coastal flooding. Total repair and recovery costs caused by Sandy in the States of New Jersey and New York totaled around 60 billion. The wake of hurricane Sandy has seen a lively debate on how to cope with this now apparent flood risk, and how it may change in the future. In this research, we developed an integrated flood risk model to assess the flood risk to buildings and vehicles by combining more than 500 synthetic hurricane events with the Hazus-MH4 damage model. Risk is estimated on a refined spatial scale for the current situation, as well as for future conditions around 2050 and 2080 by including population growth and climate change. Climate change is included based on synthetic storms using boundary conditions of 4 different GCMs, representing the effect of sea-level rise as well as a possible increase in storm frequency. The effect of uncertainty in storm water levels and damage estimation is also illustrated. The model results are validated using observations of damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in the region, yielding good agreement, giving confidence in the capacities of the modeling framework. The model results illustrate the spatial extent of the flood risk in New York (at the census block level), yielding an aggregate of 71 million/year for buildings and vehicles (total risk including e.g. infrastructure would roughly be double). The population growth projected by the city will result in a moderate increase in risk (~17%). Climate change, on the other hand, will have a much more profound impact on risk in NYC. Sea-level rise will already have a considerable impact (+60% in 2050s; +150% in 2080s), but coupled with a possible increase in storm frequency, as present in two of the four GCMs, will make for a large increase (+440% in 2050s, +1160%). A future flood risk of up to

  3. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  4. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  5. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.

  6. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  7. General principles for risk assessment of living modified organisms: lessons from chemical risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hill, Ryan A; Sendashonga, Cyrie

    2003-01-01

    Modern biotechnology has led to the development and use of Living Modified Organisms (LMOs) for agriculture and other purposes. Regulators at the national level are increasingly depending on risk assessment as a tool for assessing potential adverse effects of LMOs on the environment and human health. In addition, the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, an international agreement expected to enter into force in the near future, requires risk assessment as the basis for decision-making regarding import of some LMOs. While LMO risk assessment is relatively new, there are other risk assessment disciplines which have developed over longer time periods. The field of assessment of the environmental and human health risks of chemicals is particularly well developed, and is similar in application to LMO risk assessment. This paper aims to draw lessons for LMO risk assessment from the vast experience with chemical risk assessment. Seven general principles are outlined which should serve as a useful checklist to guide assessments of risks posed by LMOs.

  8. Probabalistic Risk Assessment of a Turbine Disk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, Jace A.; Thomas, Michael; Goswami, Tarun; Fecke, Ted

    Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotor design certification practices risk assessment using a probabilistic framework focused on only the life-limiting defect location of a component. This method generates conservative approximations of the operational risk. The first section of this article covers a discretization method, which allows for a transition from this relative risk to an absolute risk where the component is discretized into regions called zones. General guidelines were established for the zone-refinement process based on the stress gradient topology in order to reach risk convergence. The second section covers a risk assessment method for predicting the total fatigue life due to fatigue induced damage. The total fatigue life incorporates a dual mechanism approach including the crack initiation life and propagation life while simultaneously determining the associated initial flaw sizes. A microstructure-based model was employed to address uncertainties in material response and relate crack initiation life with crack size, while propagation life was characterized large crack growth laws. The two proposed methods were applied to a representative Inconel 718 turbine disk. The zone-based method reduces the conservative approaches, while showing effects of feature-based inspection on the risk assessment. In the fatigue damage assessment, the predicted initial crack distribution was found to be the most sensitive probabilistic parameter and can be used to establish an enhanced inspection planning.

  9. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  10. A critical review of social and structural conditions that influence HIV risk among Mexican deportees

    PubMed Central

    Pinedo, Miguel; Burgos, José Luis; Ojeda, Victoria D.

    2014-01-01

    Mexican migrants who are deported from the US may be at elevated risk for HIV infection. Deportations of Mexican migrants by the US have reached record numbers. We critically reviewed existing literature to assess how social and structural conditions in post-deportation settings can influence Mexican deported migrants' HIV risk. We also identify critical research gaps and make research recommendations. PMID:24583278

  11. A critical review of social and structural conditions that influence HIV risk among Mexican deportees.

    PubMed

    Pinedo, Miguel; Burgos, José Luis; Ojeda, Victoria D

    2014-05-01

    Mexican migrants who are deported from the US may be at elevated risk for HIV infection. Deportations of Mexican migrants by the US have reached record numbers. We critically reviewed existing literature to assess how social and structural conditions in post-deportation settings can influence Mexican deported migrants' HIV risk. We also identify critical research gaps and make research recommendations.

  12. Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales

    Treesearch

    Justin Fitch

    2008-01-01

    In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

  13. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  14. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  15. OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  16. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  17. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  18. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  19. [Assessment of dynamic violent behavior risk factors].

    PubMed

    Folino, Jorge Oscar; Cáceres, María Soledad; Campos, María Laura; Silveri, Marina; Ucín, Silvana; Ascazibar, Mariel

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic violent behavior risk factors have special significance since they constitute the main target for preventive intervention. Different dynamic factors as well as violent recidivism were assessed with, among other instruments, the environmental risk (Risk Management) section of the Argentinean version of the HCR-20 in 25 parolees from the Province of Buenos Aires Penitentiary System. Among other findings, the prevalence of the risk factors linked to substance abuse and socioeconomic deprivation, and the heterogeneous perception of the official institutions are very significant. Exposure to destabilizers was the factor most associated with violent recidivism.

  20. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  1. Assurance of Fault Management: Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fitz, Rhonda

    2016-01-01

    Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of criticality within flight software, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance for NASA projects, especially as spaceflight systems continue to increase in complexity. Insight into specific characteristics of FM architectures seen embedded within safety- and mission-critical software systems analyzed by the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program has been enhanced with an FM Technical Reference (TR) suite. Benefits are aimed beyond the IVV community to those that seek ways to efficiently and effectively provide software assurance to reduce the FM risk posture of NASA and other space missions. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated IVV techniques provides a TR suite that enables greater assurance that critical software systems will adequately protect against faults and respond to adverse conditions. The role FM has with regard to overall asset protection of flight software systems is being addressed with the development of an adverse condition (AC) database encompassing flight software vulnerabilities.Identification of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine how a system responds to these conditions are important aspects of hazard analysis and fault management. Understanding what ACs the mission may face, and ensuring they are prevented or addressed is the responsibility of the assurance team, which necessarily should have insight into ACs beyond those defined by the project itself. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs, and allowing queries based on project, mission

  2. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  3. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  4. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  5. Risk assessment of mixed waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Montague, D.F.; Holton, G.A.; King, C.M.

    1987-12-31

    As part of its ongoing efforts to ensure environmental regulation compliance at DOE facilities, DOE published on April 26, 1985, a notice of intent to write an Environmental Impact Statement on Waste Management Activities for Groundwater Protection (Groundwater EIS) at the Savannah River Plant (SRP). To perform a human health risk assessment of each waste site for each closure action considered, DuPont organized a project team led by personnel from the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) and supported by outside contractors specializing in risk assessment work. As part of that team, JBF Associates, Inc. (JBFA) performed an atmospheric containment transport analysis and human health risk assessment of nonradioactive contaminants from SRP waste sites. For each waste site, three closure actions were examined: (1) excavate the site, backfill it, and cap it followed by regular groundwater monitoring (Option 1); (2) backfill and cap the site followed by regular groundwater monitoring (Option 2); and (3) no remedial action, regular groundwater monitoring, and some site maintenance work (Option 3). The human health risk assessment performed by JBFA estimated the public and worker risks from contaminants released to the atmosphere from each waste site for each closure option. This paper first presents the methodology JBFA used to estimate the public and worker risks attributable to the inhalation and ingestion of airborne, nonradioactive contaminants. Following the description of the analysis methodology, the authors present the risk results for the waste sites that were due to atmospherically released nonradioactive contaminants. Both worker risks and public risks are presented. Finally, the authors present the results and conclusions derived from their analysis of the risk from airborne, nonradioactive contaminants.

  6. Modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos

    2009-02-01

    In this study, I describe a systematic approach for modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment that is based on the incorporation of kinetic spoilage modeling in exposure assessment by combining data and models for the specific spoilage organisms (SSO: fraction of the total microflora responsible for spoilage) with those for pathogens. The structure of the approach is presented through an exposure assessment application for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. The proposed approach allows for identifying spoiled products at the time of consumption by comparing the estimated level of SSO (pseudomonads) with the spoilage level (level of SSO at which spoilage is observed). The results of the application indicate that ignoring spoilage in risk assessment could lead to significant overestimations of risk.

  7. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    PubMed

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  8. Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

    PubMed

    Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

    2008-06-01

    This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

  9. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  10. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume III: Part A

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume 3A provides policies and guiding principles on the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to human health and ecological risk assessment in the EPA Superfund Program.

  11. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  12. Assessing risk: the role of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in patient safety improvement.

    PubMed

    Wreathall, J; Nemeth, C

    2004-06-01

    Morbidity and mortality due to "medical errors" compel better understanding of health care as a system. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used to assess the designs of high hazard, low risk systems such as commercial nuclear power plants and chemical manufacturing plants and is now being studied for its potential in the improvement of patient safety. PRA examines events that contribute to adverse outcomes through the use of event tree analysis and determines the likelihood of event occurrence through fault tree analysis. It complements tools already in use in patient safety such as failure modes and effects analyses (FMEAs) and root cause analyses (RCAs). PRA improves on RCA by taking account of the more complex causal interrelationships that are typical in health care. It also enables the analyst to examine potential solution effectiveness by direct graphical representations. However, PRA simplifies real world complexity by forcing binary conditions on events, and it lacks adequate probability data (although recent developments help to overcome these limitations). Its reliance on expert assessment calls for deep domain knowledge which has to come from research performed at the "sharp end" of acute care.

  13. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  14. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

  15. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

  16. Earthquake and Flood Risk Assessments for Europe and Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murnane, R. J.; Daniell, J. E.; Ward, P.; Winsemius, H.; Tijssen, A.; Toro, J.

    2015-12-01

    We report on a flood and earthquake risk assessment for 32 countries in Europe and Central Asia with a focus on how current flood and earthquake risk might evolve in the future due to changes in climate, population, and GDP. The future hazard and exposure conditions used for the risk assessment are consistent with selected IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Estimates of 2030 and 2080 population and GDP are derived using the IMAGE model forced by the socioeconomic conditions associated with the SSPs. Flood risk is modeled using the probabilistic GLOFRIS global flood risk modeling cascade which starts with meteorological fields derived from reanalysis data or climate models. For 2030 and 2080 climate conditions, the meteorological fields are generated from five climate models forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Future flood risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with the SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by a flood when a grid cell receives any depth of flood inundation. The earthquake hazard is quantified using a 10,000-year stochastic catalog of over 15.8 million synthetic earthquake events of at least magnitude 5. Ground motion prediction and estimates of local site conditions are used to determine PGA. Future earthquake risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with all five SSPs. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by an earthquake when a grid cell experiences ground motion equaling or exceeding MMI VI. For most countries, changes in exposure alter flood risk to a greater extent than changes in climate. For both flood and earthquake, the spread in risk grows over time. There are large uncertainties due to the methodology; however, the results are not meant to be definitive. Instead they will be used to initiate discussions with governments regarding efforts to manage disaster risk.

  17. 15 CFR 14.14 - High risk special award conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false High risk special award conditions. 14.14 Section 14.14 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the Secretary of Commerce UNIFORM...-PROFIT, AND COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATIONS Pre-Award Requirements § 14.14 High risk special award...

  18. Applying risk assessment models in non-surgical patients: effective risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Eldor, A

    1999-08-01

    Pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis are serious complications of non-surgical patients, but scarcity of data documenting prophylaxis means antithrombotic therapy is rarely used. Prediction of risk is complicated by the variation in the medical conditions associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE), and lack of data defining risk in different groups. Accurate risk assessment is further confounded by inherited or acquired factors for VTE, additional risk due to medical interventions, and interactions between risk factors. Acquired and inherited risk factors may underlie thromboembolic complications in a range of conditions, including pregnancy, ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction and cancer. Risk stratification may be feasible in non-surgical patients by considering individual risk factors and their cumulative effects. Current risk assessment models require expansion and modification to reflect emerging evidence in the non-surgical field. A large on-going study of prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin in non-surgical patients will clarify our understanding of the components of risk, and assist in developing therapy recommendations.

  19. ORAMUS(WINDOWS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  20. ORAMUS(DOS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 acute health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  1. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  2. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  3. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  4. Data Management for Effective Condition Assessment of Collection Systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Condition assessment provides critical information for assessment of an asset’s physical condition, remaining useful service life, and long-term performance. This paper will describe data management issues integral to a successful condition assessment program. Key points will b...

  5. Data Management for Effective Condition Assessment of Collection Systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Condition assessment provides critical information for assessment of an asset’s physical condition, remaining useful service life, and long-term performance. This paper will describe data management issues integral to a successful condition assessment program. Key points will b...

  6. Genetic Counselors' Experiences Regarding Communication of Reproductive Risks with Autosomal Recessive Conditions found on Cancer Panels.

    PubMed

    Mets, Sarah; Tryon, Rebecca; Veach, Patricia McCarthy; Zierhut, Heather A

    2016-04-01

    The development of hereditary cancer genetic testing panels has altered genetic counseling practice. Mutations within certain genes on cancer panels pose not only a cancer risk, but also a reproductive risk for autosomal recessive conditions such as Fanconi anemia, constitutional mismatch repair deficiency syndrome, and ataxia telangiectasia. This study aimed to determine if genetic counselors discuss reproductive risks for autosomal recessive conditions associated with genes included on cancer panels, and if so, under what circumstances these risks are discussed. An on-line survey was emailed through the NSGC list-serv. The survey assessed 189 cancer genetic counselors' experiences discussing reproductive risks with patients at risk to carry a mutation or variant of uncertain significance (VUS) in a gene associated with both an autosomal dominant cancer risk and an autosomal recessive syndrome. Over half (n = 82, 55 %) reported having discussed reproductive risks; the remainder (n = 66, 45 %) had not. Genetic counselors who reported discussing reproductive risks primarily did so when patients had a positive result and were of reproductive age. Reasons for not discussing these risks included when a patient had completed childbearing or when a VUS was identified. Most counselors discussed reproductive risk after obtaining results and not during the informed consent process. There is inconsistency as to if and when the discussion of reproductive risks is taking place. The wide variation in responses suggests a need to develop professional guidelines for when and how discussions of reproductive risk for autosomal recessive conditions identified through cancer panels should occur with patients.

  7. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  8. ASSESSING THE CONDITION OF SOUTH CAROLINA'S ESTUARIES: A NEW APPROACH INVOLVING INTEGRATED MEASURES OF CONDITION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The South Carolina Estuarine and Coastal Assessment Program (SCECAP) was initiated in 1999 to assess the condition of the state's coastal habitats using multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Sampling has subsequently been expanded to incl...

  9. ASSESSING THE CONDITION OF SOUTH CAROLINA'S ESTUARIES: A NEW APPROACH INVOLVING INTEGRATED MEASURES OF CONDITION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The South Carolina Estuarine and Coastal Assessment Program (SCECAP) was initiated in 1999 to assess the condition of the state's coastal habitats using multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Sampling has subsequently been expanded to incl...

  10. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  11. Assessing patients’ risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed Central

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179−0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135−0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician’s self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed. PMID:25810005

  12. 24 CFR 902.30 - Financial condition assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... DEVELOPMENT PUBLIC HOUSING ASSESSMENT SYSTEM Financial Condition Indicator § 902.30 Financial condition assessment. (a) Objective. The objective of the financial condition indicator is to measure the financial....33. (c) Exclusions. Mixed-finance projects are excluded from the financial condition indicator. ...

  13. 24 CFR 902.30 - Financial condition assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... DEVELOPMENT PUBLIC HOUSING ASSESSMENT SYSTEM Financial Condition Indicator § 902.30 Financial condition assessment. (a) Objective. The objective of the financial condition indicator is to measure the financial....33. (c) Exclusions. Mixed-finance projects are excluded from the financial condition indicator. ...

  14. 24 CFR 902.20 - Physical condition assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... DEVELOPMENT PUBLIC HOUSING ASSESSMENT SYSTEM Physical Condition Indicator § 902.20 Physical condition assessment. (a) Objective. The objective of the physical condition indicator is to determine whether a PHA is... score of zero shall be used to calculate the physical condition indicator score and the overall...

  15. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. [Monitoring and risk assessment of campylobacter infections].

    PubMed

    Bartelt, E

    2004-08-01

    The aim of a national study of a "Quantitative Risk Assessment of Campylobacter infections and broiler chicken" at the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment is to estimate the chicken meat associated risk of Campylobacteriosis in Germany by using probabilistic models. Furthermore, process parameters (modelling parameters) with the most vital impact on the risk of Campylobacteriosis due to chicken meat have to be elaborated to give recommendations for risk management options in the whole food chain. The outcome of Joint FAO/WHO Expert Consultations on Risk Assessment of Microbiological Hazards in Foods (JEMRA) with respect to Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens are the baseline for the national approach. In addition, national studies from Canada, Denmark and The Netherlands have to be considered. Typical regional data with respect to the disease, to risk factors in Germany and to the qualitative and quantitative occurrence of Campylobacter in broiler chickens along the "farm-to-fork" continuum have to be collected and validated for elaboration of the four elements of a risk assessment. Data on the prevalence of the agent at different stages of the food chain given in available surveillance systems in Germany are limited with respect to their suitability as incoming parameters for the models. A monitoring programme, as required in the Directive 2003/99/EC on the monitoring of zoonoses and zoonotic agents, as well as coordinated programmes for the official food control authorities, could improve the data baseline for risk assessment studies for instance. To collect all necessary information on the quantitative load of Camylobacter in broiler chickens will go beyond the scope of any existing or future monitoring systems. Results can only be achieved by detailed studies. Beside this, regional data on production and processing of broiler chicken, consumption data and information on the behaviour of consumers in households when preparing broiler chicken products are

  17. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    PubMed

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  18. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders.

  19. Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mixtures is poorly characterized, exposure data are uncertain and toxicologic data on the known components of the mixture are limited. However, a potential human health hazard may exist and the U.S.EPA, state and local governments need to be able to assess the total hazard in order to make decisions on appropriate action. This report describes a procedure for assessing the risks from chemical mixtures that includes options when different kinds of data are available. Good-quality information on the mixture of concern or a similar mixture should always be used. Less desirable, but still useful approach, is to utilize data on components and their interactions. The quality of exposure and toxicity data must be determined and the uncertainties involved in each risk assessment must be thoroughly discussed. ater contamination is briefly discussed since it is of vital concern as the primary exposure medium for chemical mixtures. The methodology for estimating the human health risk from single chemicals, both carcinogens and systemic toxicants, is reviewed as it forms the basis for the assessment of mixtures. The Implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mix

  20. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  1. Sensitivity analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Zwieterin, M H; van Gerwen, S J

    2000-07-15

    The occurrence of foodborne disease remains a widespread problem in both the developing and the developed world. A systematic and quantitative evaluation of food safety is important to control the risk of foodborne diseases. World-wide, many initiatives are being taken to develop quantitative risk analysis. However, the quantitative evaluation of food safety in all its aspects is very complex, especially since in many cases specific parameter values are not available. Often many variables have large statistical variability while the quantitative effect of various phenomena is unknown. Therefore, sensitivity analysis can be a useful tool to determine the main risk-determining phenomena, as well as the aspects that mainly determine the inaccuracy in the risk estimate. This paper presents three stages of sensitivity analysis. First, deterministic analysis selects the most relevant determinants for risk. Overlooking of exceptional, but relevant cases is prevented by a second, worst-case analysis. This analysis finds relevant process steps in worst-case situations, and shows the relevance of variations of factors for risk. The third, stochastic analysis, studies the effects of variations of factors for the variability of risk estimates. Care must be taken that the assumptions made as well as the results are clearly communicated. Stochastic risk estimates are, like deterministic ones, just as good (or bad) as the available data, and the stochastic analysis must not be used to mask lack of information. Sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool in quantitative risk assessment by determining critical aspects and effects of variations.

  2. Pressure sore risk assessment in children.

    PubMed

    Waterlow, J A

    1997-07-01

    A multi-centred study was undertaken involving 300 children ranging from neonates to children aged 16 years. The purpose of the study was to investigate the possibility of designing a pressure sore risk assessment scoring system suitable for the paediatric area of care. It was found that the following conclusions can be drawn: (i) Children are at risk of developing pressure sores; (ii) A version of the adult Waterlow card was not appropriate, especially at the younger end of the scale; (iii) There are identifiable situations and treatments which do pose a risk of pressure sore development. Admission documentation and a care plan within a hospital policy is recommended as the best method of drawing nurses' attention to the risk factors involved and the measures which need to be taken to alleviate the risk of tissue damage.

  3. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DYE AND PIGMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This risk assessment calculates the maximum loadings of constituents found in dyes and pigment industries waste streams which can be disposed in different types of waste management units without causing health benchmarks to be exceeded at plausible receptor locations. The assessment focuses on potential risks from volatilization and leaching to groundwater of constituents disposed in surface impoundments and landfills with either clay liners or composite liners. This product will be used by EPA decision makers to assist in determining whether certain waste streams generated by the dyes and pigments industries should be designated as hazardous.

  4. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  5. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness

    SciTech Connect

    John W. Collins

    2010-08-01

    Throughout the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project life cycle, technical risks are identified, analyzed, and mitigated and decisions are made regarding the design and selection of plant and sub-system configurations, components and their fabrication materials, and operating conditions. Risk resolution and decision making are key elements that help achieve project completion within budget and schedule constraints and desired plant availability. To achieve this objective, a formal decision-making and risk management process was developed for NGNP, based on proven systems engineering principles that have guided aerospace and military applications.

  6. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  7. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  8. SAPPIRE: a prototype mobile tool for pressure ulcer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyeoneui; Chung, Heejoon; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Choi, Jeeyae

    2014-01-01

    Accurate assessment and documentation of skin conditions facilitate communication among care providers and are critical to effective prevention and mitigation of pressure ulcer. We report developing a prototype mobile system called SAPPIRE (Skin Assessment for Pressure Ulcer Prevention, an Integrated Recording Environment) for an android device to assist nurses with skin assessment and documentation at bedside. SAPPIRE demonstrates (1) data documentation conforming to the relevant terminology standards, (2) data exchange using Continuity of Care Records (CCR) standard and (3) smart display of patient data relevant to risk parameters to promote accurate pressure ulcer risk assessment with the Braden scale. Challenges associated standardizing assessment data faced during this development and the approaches that SAPPIRE took to overcome them are described.

  9. A "Conditional" Sense of Fairness in Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mislevy, Robert J.; Haertel, Geneva; Cheng, Britte H.; Ructtinger, Liliana; DeBarger, Angela; Murray, Elizabeth; Rose, David; Gravel, Jenna; Colker, Alexis M.; Rutstein, Daisy; Vendlinski, Terry

    2013-01-01

    Standardizing aspects of assessments has long been recognized as a tactic to help make evaluations of examinees fair. It reduces variation in irrelevant aspects of testing procedures that could advantage some examinees and disadvantage others. However, recent attention to making assessment accessible to a more diverse population of students…

  10. A "Conditional" Sense of Fairness in Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mislevy, Robert J.; Haertel, Geneva; Cheng, Britte H.; Ructtinger, Liliana; DeBarger, Angela; Murray, Elizabeth; Rose, David; Gravel, Jenna; Colker, Alexis M.; Rutstein, Daisy; Vendlinski, Terry

    2013-01-01

    Standardizing aspects of assessments has long been recognized as a tactic to help make evaluations of examinees fair. It reduces variation in irrelevant aspects of testing procedures that could advantage some examinees and disadvantage others. However, recent attention to making assessment accessible to a more diverse population of students…

  11. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    PubMed

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  12. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  13. Ecological risk assessment: implications of hormesis.

    PubMed

    van der Schalie, W H; Gentile, J H

    2000-01-01

    Hormesis is a widespread phenomenon across many taxa and chemicals, and, at the single species level, issues regarding the application of hormesis to human health and ecological risk assessment are similar. For example, convincing the public of a 'beneficial' effect of environmental chemicals may be problematic, and the design and analysis of laboratory studies may require modifications to detect hormesis. However, interpreting the significance of hormesis for even a single species in an ecological risk assessment can be complicated by considerations of competition with other species, predation effects, etc. Ecological risk assessments involve more than a single species; they may involve communities of hundreds or thousands of species as well as a range of ecological processes. Applying hormetic adjustments to threshold effect levels for chemicals derived from sensitivity distributions for a large number of species is impractical. For ecological risks, chemical stressors are frequently of lessor concern than physical stressors such as habitat alteration or biological stressors such as introduced species, but the relevance of hormesis to non-chemical stressors is unclear. Although ecological theories such as the intermediate disturbance hypothesis offer some intriguing similarities between chemical hormesis and hormetic-like responses resulting from physical disturbances, mechanistic explanations are lacking. Further exploration of the relevance of hormesis to ecological risk assessment is desirable. Aspects deserving additional attention include developing a better understanding of the hormetic effects of chemical mixtures, the relevance of hormesis to physical and biological stressors and the development of criteria for determining when hormesis is likely to be relevant to ecological risk assessments.

  14. Development of a National-Scale Indicator of Benthic Condition for the National Coastal Condition Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA has evaluated the application of a national-scale indicator of estuarine benthic condition for the National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA). Historically, in the National Coastal Condition Reports (NCCR I-IV), estuarine benthic condition was assessed by applying m...

  15. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  16. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  18. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  19. Methodology for qualitative urban flooding risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Leitão, João P; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Simões, Nuno E; Martins, André

    2013-01-01

    Pluvial or surface flooding can cause significant damage and disruption as it often affects highly urbanised areas. Therefore it is essential to accurately identify consequences and assess the risks associated with such phenomena. The aim of this study is to present the results and investigate the applicability of a qualitative flood risk assessment methodology in urban areas. This methodology benefits from recent developments in urban flood modelling, such as the dual-drainage modelling concept, namely one-dimensional automatic overland flow network delineation tools (e.g. AOFD) and 1D/1D models incorporating both surface and sewer drainage systems. To assess flood risk, the consequences can be estimated using hydraulic model results, such as water velocities and water depth results; the likelihood was estimated based on the return period of historical rainfall events. To test the methodology two rainfall events with return periods of 350 and 2 years observed in Alcântara (Lisbon, Portugal) were used and three consequence dimensions were considered: affected public transportation services, affected properties and pedestrian safety. The most affected areas in terms of flooding were easily identified; the presented methodology was shown to be easy to implement and effective to assess flooding risk in urban areas, despite the common difficulties in obtaining data.

  20. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  1. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  2. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WETLANDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This volume represents the proceedings of a workshop held from 30 July-3 August 1995 at Fairmont Hot Springs, Montana. The workshop was designed to meet the scientific and regulatory need for current information describing ecotoxicology and risk assessment for wetlands. Professio...

  3. Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fister, Wolfgang; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Heckrath, Goswin

    2013-04-01

    Soil erosion is a phenomenon with relevance for many research topics in the geosciences. Consequently, PhD students with many different backgrounds are exposed to soil erosion related questions during their research. These students require a compact, but detailed introduction to erosion processes, the risks associated with erosion, but also tools to assess and study erosion related questions ranging from a simple risk assessment to effects of climate change on erosion-related effects on geochemistry on various scales. The PhD course on Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling offered by the University of Aarhus and conducted jointly with the University of Basel is aimed at graduate students with degrees in the geosciences and a PhD research topic with a link to soil erosion. The course offers a unique introduction to erosion processes, conventional risk assessment and field-truthing of results. This is achieved by combing lectures, mapping, erosion experiments, and GIS-based erosion modelling. A particular mark of the course design is the direct link between the results of each part of the course activities. This ensures the achievement of a holistic understanding of erosion in the environment as a key learning outcome.

  4. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  5. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  6. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  7. Computational Toxicology in Cancer Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment over the last half century has, for many individual cases served us well, but has proceeded on an extremely slow pace and has left us with considerable uncertainty. There are certainly thousands of compounds and thousands of exposure scenarios that remain unteste...

  8. An approach to security risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  9. TOXICOGENOMICS AND HUMAN DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory


    Toxicogenomics and Human Disease Risk Assessment.

    Complete sequencing of human and other genomes, availability of large-scale gene
    expression arrays with ever-increasing numbers of genes displayed, and steady
    improvements in protein expression technology can hav...

  10. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  11. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  12. Simulation modeling for microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Cassin, M H; Paoli, G M; Lammerding, A M

    1998-11-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment implies an estimation of the probability and impact of adverse health outcomes due to microbial hazards. In the case of food safety, the probability of human illness is a complex function of the variability of many parameters that influence the microbial environment, from the production to the consumption of a food. The analytical integration required to estimate the probability of foodborne illness is intractable in all but the simplest of models. Monte Carlo simulation is an alternative to computing analytical solutions. In some cases, a risk assessment may be commissioned to serve a larger purpose than simply the estimation of risk. A Monte Carlo simulation can provide insights into complex processes that are invaluable, and otherwise unavailable, to those charged with the task of risk management. Using examples from a farm-to-fork model of the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers, this paper describes specifically how such goals as research prioritization, risk-based characterization of control points, and risk-based comparison of intervention strategies can be objectively achieved using Monte Carlo simulation.

  13. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  14. Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: An Interagency Risk Assessment-Risk Mitigations.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Tang, Jia; Dennis, Sherri B; Kause, Janell R

    2016-07-01

    Cross-contamination, improper holding temperatures, and insufficient sanitary practices are known retail practices that may lead to product contamination and growth of Listeria monocytogenes. However, the relative importance of control options to mitigate the risk of invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) products sliced or prepared at retail is not well understood. This study illustrates the utility of a quantitative risk assessment model described in a first article of this series (Pouillot, R., D. Gallagher, J. Tang, K. Hoelzer, J. Kause, and S. B. Dennis, J. Food Prot. 78:134-145, 2015) to evaluate the public health impact associated with changes in retail deli practices and interventions. Twenty-two mitigation scenarios were modeled and evaluated under six different baseline conditions. These scenarios were related to sanitation, worker behavior, use of growth inhibitors, cross-contamination, storage temperature control, and reduction of the level of L. monocytogenes on incoming RTE food products. The mean risk per serving of RTE products obtained under these scenarios was then compared with the risk estimated in the baseline condition. Some risk mitigations had a consistent impact on the predicted listeriosis risk in all baseline conditions (e.g. presence or absence of growth inhibitor), whereas others were greatly dependent on the initial baseline conditions or practices in the deli (e.g. preslicing of products). Overall, the control of the bacterial growth and the control of contamination at its source were major factors of listeriosis risk in these settings. Although control of cross-contamination and continued sanitation were also important, the decrease in the predicted risk was not amenable to a simple solution. Findings from these predictive scenario analyses are intended to encourage improvements to retail food safety practices and mitigation strategies to control L. monocytogenes in RTE foods more effectively and to demonstrate the utility of

  15. exLOPA for explosion risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Markowski, Adam S

    2007-04-11

    The European Union regulations require safety and health protection of workers who are potentially at risk from explosive atmosphere areas. According to the requirements, the operators of installations where potentially explosive atmosphere can occur are obliged to produce an explosion protection document. The key objective of this document is the assessment of explosion risks. This paper is concerned with the so-called explosion layer of protection analysis (exLOPA), which allows for semi-quantitative explosion risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The exLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA but takes into account some typical factors appropriate for explosion, like the probability that an explosive atmosphere will occur, probability that sources of ignition will be present and become effective as well as the probability of failure on demand for appropriate explosion prevention and mitigation means.

  16. Statistics for risk assessment of chemical carcinogens.

    PubMed

    Chen, James J; Chen, Yi-Ju; Cheng, Kuang Fu

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment is a scientific process of evaluation of potential health risks of chemical exposures to humans from available information. It involves analysis of the relationship between exposure and health related outcomes to derive an allowable exposure level. Because of lack of human exposure data, the major source of information for studying potential health effects of chemicals on humans is generally obtained from animal dose response experiments. Animal data are often evaluated in two aspects via statistical analysis: qualitative testing and quantitative estimation. The qualitative testing is to determine if the chemical causes an adverse health effect, i.e., if there is a statistically significant difference between treated and control animals. Quantitative estimation involves fitting a dose-response model to derive an allowable exposure level for humans. This paper reviews statistical principles and procedures for qualitative and quantitative approaches to human risk assessment.

  17. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS | Science Inventory | US ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Each source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by sources of air toxics emissions, on a source category basis, to determine if control technology standards previously established for that source category are adequately protecting public health.

  18. Stochastic risk assessment of sites contaminated by hazardous wastes

    SciTech Connect

    Batchelor, B.; Araganth, V.; Valdes, J.

    1998-04-01

    Stochastic risk assessment models offer the potential for being more objective by explicitly considering variability. Such a model has been developed for a site contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) by representing the parameters used in the risk assessment as probability distribution functions (pdf) rather than single values. The pdf for total risk calculated by the model is approximately lognormal, although the pdf of parameters in the model take on a variety of forms. A first-order approximation to the model provides good estimates for the high end of the distribution, which is of concern when conservative risk assessments are desirable. The first-order approximation provides good estimates even when the level of variation of the parameters is increased well above levels that are normally expected. A procedure was developed to apply the stochastic risk assessment model in a series of calculations to determine preliminary remediation goals for the site. In addition, a simplified technique was developed to calculate preliminary remediation goals using only results from simulating risk with initial site conditions.

  19. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  20. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu). PMID:27974141