Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

Bullying and mental health and suicidal behaviour among 14- to 15-year-olds in a representative sample of Australian children.

PubMed

Ford, Rebecca; King, Tania; Priest, Naomi; Kavanagh, Anne

2017-09-01

To provide the first Australian population-based estimates of the association between bullying and adverse mental health outcomes and suicidality among Australian adolescents. Analysis of data from 3537 adolescents, aged 14-15 years from Wave 6 of the K-cohort of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children was conducted. We used Poisson and linear regression to estimate associations between bullying type (none, relational-verbal, physical, both types) and role (no role, victim, bully, victim and bully), and mental health (measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, symptoms of anxiety and depression) and suicidality. Adolescents involved in bullying had significantly increased Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, depression and anxiety scores in all bullying roles and types. In terms of self-harm and suicidality, bully-victims had the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval [3.26, 6.83]), suicidal ideation (prevalence rate ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval [2.83, 6.49]), suicidal plan (prevalence rate ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [2.54, 6.58]) and attempts (prevalence rate ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [1.39, 5.13]), followed by victims then bullies. The experience of both relational-verbal and physical bullying was associated with the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.15, 6.60]), suicidal ideation or plans (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.05, 6.95]; and 4.8, 95% confidence interval [3.01, 7.64], respectively) or suicide attempts (prevalence rate ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval [1.90, 6.30]). This study presents the first national, population-based estimates of the associations between bullying by peers and mental health outcomes in Australian adolescents. The markedly increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviours among adolescents who experienced bullying highlights the importance of addressing bullying in school settings.

Statistical inference for the within-device precision of quantitative measurements in assay validation.

PubMed

Liu, Jen-Pei; Lu, Li-Tien; Liao, C T

2009-09-01

Intermediate precision is one of the most important characteristics for evaluation of precision in assay validation. The current methods for evaluation of within-device precision recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline EP5-A2 are based on the point estimator. On the other hand, in addition to point estimators, confidence intervals can provide a range for the within-device precision with a probability statement. Therefore, we suggest a confidence interval approach for assessment of the within-device precision. Furthermore, under the two-stage nested random-effects model recommended by the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2, in addition to the current Satterthwaite's approximation and the modified large sample (MLS) methods, we apply the technique of generalized pivotal quantities (GPQ) to derive the confidence interval for the within-device precision. The data from the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2 illustrate the applications of the confidence interval approach and comparison of results between the three methods. Results of a simulation study on the coverage probability and expected length of the three methods are reported. The proposed method of the GPQ-based confidence intervals is also extended to consider the between-laboratories variation for precision assessment.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models which simulate the climate system. The method is applied to model data from the high resolution ocean model, INALT01 where the relationship between the Agulhas Leakage and the North Brazil Current is evaluated. Preliminary results show significant correlation between the two variables when there is 10 year lag between them, which is more or less the time that takes the Agulhas Leakage water to reach the North Brazil Current. Mudelsee, M., 2003. Estimating Pearson's correlation coefficient with bootstrap confidence interval from serially dependent time series. Mathematical Geology 35, 651-665.

Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2017-02-01

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

High prevalence of refractive errors in a rural population: 'Nooravaran Salamat' Mobile Eye Clinic experience.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Rezvan, Farhad; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Abdollahi, Majid; Hashemi, Maryam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2013-01-01

The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia and determinants were determined in a rural population of Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Using random cluster sampling, 13 of the 83 villages of Khaf County in the north east of Iran were selected. Data from 2001 people over the age of 15 years were analysed. Visual acuity measurement, non-cycloplegic refraction and eye examinations were done at the Mobile Eye Clinic. The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia based on spherical equivalent worse than -0.5 dioptre and +0.5 dioptre, respectively. The prevalence of myopia, hyperopia and anisometropia in the total study sample was 28% (95% confidence interval: 25.9-30.2), 19.2% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-21.1), and 11.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.0-13.1), respectively. In the over 40 population, the prevalence of myopia and hyperopia was 32.5% (95% confidence interval: 28.9-36.1) and 27.9% (95% confidence interval: 24.5-31.3), respectively. In the multiple regression model for this group, myopia strongly correlated with cataract (odds ratio = 1.98 and 95% confidence interval: 1.33-2.93), and hyperopia only correlated with age (P < 0.001). The prevalence of high myopia and high hyperopia was 1.5% and 4.6%. In the multiple regression model, anisometropia significantly correlated with age (odds ratio = 1.04) and cataract (odds ratio = 5.2) (P < 0.001). The prevalence of myopia and anisometropia was higher than that in previous studies in urban population of Iran, especially in the elderly. Cataract was the only variable that correlated with myopia and anisometropia. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Priorities for treatment, care and information if faced with serious illness: a comparative population-based survey in seven European countries.

PubMed

Higginson, Irene J; Gomes, Barbara; Calanzani, Natalia; Gao, Wei; Bausewein, Claudia; Daveson, Barbara A; Deliens, Luc; Ferreira, Pedro L; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Simon, Steffen T; Cohen, Joachim; Harding, Richard

2014-02-01

Health-care costs are growing, with little population-based data about people's priorities for end-of-life care, to guide service development and aid discussions. We examined variations in people's priorities for treatment, care and information across seven European countries. Telephone survey of a random sample of households; we asked respondents their priorities if 'faced with a serious illness, like cancer, with limited time to live' and used multivariable logistic regressions to identify associated factors. Members of the general public aged ≥ 16 years residing in England, Flanders, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In total, 9344 individuals were interviewed. Most people chose 'improve quality of life for the time they had left', ranging from 57% (95% confidence interval: 55%-60%, Italy) to 81% (95% confidence interval: 79%-83%, Spain). Only 2% (95% confidence interval: 1%-3%, England) to 6% (95% confidence interval: 4%-7%, Flanders) said extending life was most important, and 15% (95% confidence interval: 13%-17%, Spain) to 40% (95% confidence interval: 37%-43%, Italy) said quality and extension were equally important. Prioritising quality of life was associated with higher education in all countries (odds ratio = 1.3 (Flanders) to 7.9 (Italy)), experience of caregiving or bereavement (England, Germany, Portugal), prioritising pain/symptom control over having a positive attitude and preferring death in a hospice/palliative care unit. Those prioritising extending life had the highest home death preference of all groups. Health status did not affect priorities. Across all countries, extending life was prioritised by a minority, regardless of health status. Treatment and care needs to be reoriented with patient education and palliative care becoming mainstream for serious conditions such as cancer.

[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

PubMed

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

Permutation-based inference for the AUC: A unified approach for continuous and discontinuous data.

PubMed

Pauly, Markus; Asendorf, Thomas; Konietschke, Frank

2016-11-01

We investigate rank-based studentized permutation methods for the nonparametric Behrens-Fisher problem, that is, inference methods for the area under the ROC curve. We hereby prove that the studentized permutation distribution of the Brunner-Munzel rank statistic is asymptotically standard normal, even under the alternative. Thus, incidentally providing the hitherto missing theoretical foundation for the Neubert and Brunner studentized permutation test. In particular, we do not only show its consistency, but also that confidence intervals for the underlying treatment effects can be computed by inverting this permutation test. In addition, we derive permutation-based range-preserving confidence intervals. Extensive simulation studies show that the permutation-based confidence intervals appear to maintain the preassigned coverage probability quite accurately (even for rather small sample sizes). For a convenient application of the proposed methods, a freely available software package for the statistical software R has been developed. A real data example illustrates the application. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Impact of age-related macular degeneration in patients with glaucoma: understanding the patients' perspective.

PubMed

Skalicky, Simon E; Fenwick, Eva; Martin, Keith R; Crowston, Jonathan; Goldberg, Ivan; McCluskey, Peter

2016-07-01

The aim of the study is to measure the impact of age-related macular degeneration on vision-related activity limitation and preference-based status for glaucoma patients. This was a cross-sectional study. Two-hundred glaucoma patients of whom 73 had age-related macular degeneration were included in the research. Sociodemographic information, visual field parameters and visual acuity were collected. Age-related macular degeneration was scored using the Age-Related Eye Disease Study system. The Rasch-analysed Glaucoma Activity Limitation-9 and the Visual Function Questionnaire Utility Index measured vision-related activity limitation and preference-based status, respectively. Regression models determined factors predictive of vision-related activity limitation and preference-based status. Differential item functioning compared Glaucoma Activity Limitation-9 item difficulty for those with and without age-related macular degeneration. Mean age was 73.7 (±10.1) years. Lower better eye mean deviation (β: 1.42, 95% confidence interval: 1.24-1.63, P < 0.001) and age-related macular degeneration (β: 1.26 95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.44, P = 0.001) were independently associated with worse vision-related activity limitation. Worse eye visual acuity (β: 0.978, 95% confidence interval: 0.961-0.996, P = 0.018), high risk age-related macular degeneration (β: 0.981, 95% confidence interval: 0.965-0.998, P = 0.028) and severe glaucoma (β: 0.982, 95% confidence interval: 0.966-0.998, P = 0.032) were independently associated with worse preference-based status. Glaucoma patients with age-related macular degeneration found using stairs, walking on uneven ground and judging distances of foot to step/curb significantly more difficult than those without age-related macular degeneration. Vision-related activity limitation and preference-based status are negatively impacted by severe glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration. Patients with both conditions perceive increased difficulty walking safely compared with patients with glaucoma alone. © 2015 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

A simple method for assessing occupational exposure via the one-way random effects model.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Mathew, Thomas; Peng, Jie

2016-11-01

A one-way random effects model is postulated for the log-transformed shift-long personal exposure measurements, where the random effect in the model represents an effect due to the worker. Simple closed-form confidence intervals are proposed for the relevant parameters of interest using the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER). The performance of the confidence bounds is evaluated and compared with those based on the generalized confidence interval approach. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed MOVER confidence bounds are better than the generalized confidence bounds for the overall mean exposure and an upper percentile of the exposure distribution. The proposed methods are illustrated using a few examples involving industrial hygiene data.

Emergency department patient satisfaction survey in Imam Reza Hospital, Tabriz, Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Patient satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care and service delivery in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with the Emergency Department of Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran. Methods This study was carried out for 1 week during all shifts. Trained researchers used the standard Press Ganey questionnaire. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire prior to discharge. The study questionnaire included 30 questions based on a Likert scale. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used throughout data analysis in a number of ways using SPSS version 13. Results Five hundred patients who attended our ED were included in this study. The highest satisfaction rates were observed in the terms of physicians' communication with patients (82.5%), security guards' courtesy (78.3%) and nurses' communication with patients (78%). The average waiting time for the first visit to a physician was 24 min 15 s. The overall satisfaction rate was dependent on the mean waiting time. The mean waiting time for a low rate of satisfaction was 47 min 11 s with a confidence interval of (19.31, 74.51), and for very good level of satisfaction it was 14 min 57 s with a (10.58, 18.57) confidence interval. Approximately 63% of the patients rated their general satisfaction with the emergency setting as good or very good. On the whole, the patient satisfaction rate at the lowest level was 7.7 with a confidence interval of (5.1, 10.4), and at the low level it was 5.8% with a confidence interval of (3.7, 7.9). The rate of satisfaction for the mediocre level was 23.3 with a confidence interval of (19.1, 27.5); for the high level of satisfaction it was 28.3 with a confidence interval of (22.9, 32.8), and for the very high level of satisfaction, this rate was 32.9% with a confidence interval of (28.4, 37.4). Conclusion The study findings indicated the need for evidence-based interventions in emergency care services in areas such as medical care, nursing care, courtesy of staff, physical comfort and waiting time. Efforts should focus on shortening waiting intervals and improving patients' perceptions about waiting in the ED, and also improving the overall cleanliness of the emergency room. PMID:21407998

Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Superiority Effect Size Measure and the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruscio, John; Mullen, Tara

2012-01-01

It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

Prevalence of tics in schoolchildren in central Spain: a population-based study.

PubMed

Cubo, Esther; Gabriel y Galán, José María Trejo; Villaverde, Vanesa Ausín; Velasco, Sara Sáez; Benito, Vanesa Delgado; Macarrón, Jesús Vicente; Guevara, José Cordero; Louis, Elan D; Benito-León, Julián

2011-08-01

Tic disorders constitute a neurodevelopmental disorder of childhood. This study sought to determine the prevalence of tic disorders in a school-based sample. A randomized sample of 1158 schoolchildren, based on clusters (classrooms) in the province of Burgos (Spain), was identified on a stratified sampling frame combining types of educational center and setting (mainstream schools and special education), using a two-phase approach (screening and diagnosis ascertainment by a neurologist). Tics with/without impairment criterion were diagnosed according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria. In mainstream schools, tics were observed in 125/741 students (16.86%; 95% confidence interval, 14.10-19.63), and were more frequent in boys (87/448, 19.42%; 95% confidence interval, 15.64-23.19) compared with girls (38/293, 12.96%; 95% confidence interval, 8.95-16.98; P = 0.03). In special education centers, tics disorders were observed in 11/54 of children (20.37%; 95% confidence interval, 8.70-32.03). Overall, tics with impairment criteria were less frequent than tics without impairment criteria (4.65% vs 11.85%, P < 0.0001). The most frequent diagnoses involved chronic motor tics (6.07%) and Tourette syndrome (5.26%). Tic disorders are common in childhood, and the use or nonuse of impairment criteria exerts a significant impact on tic prevalence estimates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The prevalence of diagnosed tourette syndrome in Canada: A national population-based study.

PubMed

Yang, Jaeun; Hirsch, Lauren; Martino, Davide; Jette, Nathalie; Roberts, Jodie; Pringsheim, Tamara

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine: (1) the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome in Canada by sex in youth (aged 12-17) and adults and (2) socioeconomic factors in this population. The majority of epidemiological studies of tics have focused on children and youth, with few studies describing the prevalence of tics in adult populations. Canadian data on Tourette syndrome prevalence were derived from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2010 and 2011 cycles, a Statistics Canada population-based cross-sectional survey that collects information related to health status. We determined the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome and examined sociodemographic factors, including age, sex, education, income, employment, and birthplace. Overall, 122,884 Canadians participated in the surveys, with 122 participants diagnosed with Tourette syndrome. The prevalence of Tourette syndrome was higher in males in youth: 6.03 per 1000 (95% confidence interval: 3.24-8.81) in males versus 0.48 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.91) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 5.31 (95% confidence interval: 2.38-11.81). In adults, the prevalence of Tourette syndrome was 0.89 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.29) in males versus 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.16.0-0.71) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 1.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.08). After adjusting for age and sex, adults with Tourette syndrome had lower odds of receiving postsecondary education or being employed and higher odds of having income lower than the median and receiving governmental support. Data on the prevalence of Tourette syndrome in adults are scarce because most studies focus on children. Our data demonstrate a decreasing prevalence risk ratio for sex in adults compared to children. A diagnosis of Tourette syndrome is associated with lower education, income, and employment in adulthood. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Prevalence of dry eye syndrome in an adult population.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Mehravaran, Shiva; Shariati, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar

2014-04-01

To determine the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the general 40- to 64-year-old population of Shahroud, Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Through cluster sampling, 6311 people were selected and 5190 participated. Assessment of dry eye was done in a random subsample of 1008 people. Subjective assessment for dry eye syndrome was performed using Ocular Surface Disease Index questionnaire. In addition, the following objective tests of dry eye syndrome were employed: Schirmer test, tear break-up time, and fluorescein and Rose Bengal staining using the Oxford grading scheme. Those with an Ocular Surface Disease Index score ≥23 were considered symptomatic, and dry eye syndrome was defined as having symptoms and at least one positive objective sign. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 6.9-10.6). Assessment of signs showed an abnormal Schirmer score in 17.8% (95% confidence interval 15.5-20.0), tear break-up time in 34.2% (95% confidence interval 29.5-38.8), corneal fluorescein staining (≥1) in 11.3% (95% confidence interval 8.5-14.1) and Rose Bengal staining (≥3 for cornea and/or conjunctiva) in 4.9% (95% confidence interval 3.4-6.5). According to the Ocular Surface Disease Index scores, 18.3% (95% confidence interval 15.9-20.6) had dry eye syndrome symptoms. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was significantly higher in women (P = 0.010) and not significantly associated with age (P = 0.291). The objective dry eye syndrome signs significantly increased with age. Based on the findings, the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the studied population is in the mid-range. The prevalence is higher in women. Also, objective tests tend to turn abnormal at higher age. Pterygium is associated with dry eye syndrome and increased its symptoms. © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Antecedents and neuroimaging patterns in cerebral palsy with epilepsy and cognitive impairment: a population-based study in children born at term.

PubMed

Ahlin, Kristina; Jacobsson, Bo; Nilsson, Staffan; Himmelmann, Kate

2017-07-01

Antecedents of accompanying impairments in cerebral palsy and their relation to neuroimaging patterns need to be explored. A population-based study of 309 children with cerebral palsy born at term between 1983 and 1994. Prepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum variables previously studied as antecedents of cerebral palsy type and motor severity were analyzed in children with cerebral palsy and cognitive impairment and/or epilepsy, and in children with cerebral palsy without these accompanying impairments. Neuroimaging patterns and their relation to identified antecedents were analyzed. Data were retrieved from the cerebral palsy register of western Sweden, and from obstetric and neonatal records. Children with cerebral palsy and accompanying impairments more often had low birthweight (kg) (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3-0.8), brain maldevelopment known at birth (p = 0.007, odds ratio ∞) and neonatal infection (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.04-28.4). Moreover, neuroimaging patterns of maldevelopment (odds ratio 7.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-17.2), cortical/subcortical lesions (odds ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3-12.2) and basal ganglia lesions (odds ratio 7.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-41.3) were more common, wheras white matter injury was found significantly less often (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5). In most children with maldevelopment, the intrapartum and postpartum periods were uneventful (p < 0.05). Cerebral maldevelopment was associated with prepartum antecedents, whereas subcortical/cortical and basal ganglia lesions were associated with intrapartum and postpartum antecedents. No additional factor other than those related to motor impairment was associated with epilepsy and cognitive impairment in cerebral palsy. Timing of antecedents deemed important for the development of cerebral palsy with accompanying impairments were supported by neuroimaging patterns. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Breast cancer biology varies by method of detection and may contribute to overdiagnosis.

PubMed

Hayse, Brandon; Hooley, Regina J; Killelea, Brigid K; Horowitz, Nina R; Chagpar, Anees B; Lannin, Donald R

2016-08-01

Recently, it has been suggested that screening mammography may result in some degree of overdiagnosis (ie, detection of breast cancers that would never become clinically important within the lifespan of the patient). The extent and biology of these overdiagnosed cancers, however, is not well understood, and the effect of newer screening modalities on overdiagnosis is unknown. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of breast cancers diagnosed at the Yale Breast Center from 2004-2014. The mode of initial presentation was categorized into 5 groups: screening mammogram, screening magnetic resonance imaging, screening ultrasonography, self-detected masses, and physician-detected masses. Compared with cancers presenting with masses, cancers detected by image-based screening were more likely to present with ductal carcinoma-in-situ or T1 cancers (P < .001). In addition to a simple stage shift, however, cancers detected by image-based screening were also more likely to be luminal and low-grade cancers; symptomatic cancers were more likely high-grade and triple-negative (P < .001, respectively). On a multivariate analysis, adjusting for age, race, and tumor size, cancers detected by mammogram, US, and magnetic resonance imaging had greater odds of being luminal (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3; odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-4.7; and odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval, 2.1-10.6, respectively), and low-grade (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.9; odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval, 2.7-8.9; and odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.6-8.1, respectively) compared with cancers presenting with self-detected masses. Screening detects cancers with more indolent biology, potentially contributing to the observed rate of overdiagnosis. With magnetic resonance imaging and US being used more commonly for screening, the rate of overdiagnosis may increase further. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk factors for gametocyte carriage in uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children before and after artemisinin-based combination treatments.

PubMed

Sowunmi, Akintunde; Okuboyejo, Titilope M; Gbotosho, Grace O; Happi, Christian T

2011-01-01

Artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) are the recommended first-line antimalarials globally, but their influence on the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage has had little evaluation in endemic areas. The risk factors associated with gametocytaemia at presentation and after ACTs were evaluated in 835 children assigned to artesunate, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine or artemether-lumefantrine. Gametocyte carriage at enrolment was 8.4%. During follow-up, 24 patients (2.8%) developed gametocytaemia, which in 83% (20 patients) had developed by day 7 following treatment. In a multiple regression model, 2 factors were independent risk factors for the presence of gametocytaemia at enrolment, namely age <3 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-4.05; p = 0.04) and enrolment before 2009 (adjusted odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 2.09-8.44; p < 0.001). Haematocrit <25% and parasitaemia <50,000/μl blood were associated with an increased risk of gametocytaemia. Following treatment, 3 factors were independent risk factors for gametocytaemia, namely gametocytaemia at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio 46.39, 95% confidence interval 22.3-96.46; p < 0.0001) and treatment with artesunate (adjusted odds ratio 6.74, 95% confidence interval 1.79-25.27; p = 0.005) or artesunate-mefloquine (adjusted odds ratio 9.66, 95% confidence interval 2.87-32.46; p < 0.0.0001) relative to other ACTs. ACTs modified the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage after use. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Persistent opioid use following Cesarean delivery: patterns and predictors among opioid naïve women

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Franklin, Jessica M.; Bykov, Katsiaryna; Avorn, Jerry; Shrank, William H.; Brennan, Troyen A.; Landon, Joan E.; Rathmell, James P.; Huybrechts, Krista F.; Fischer, Michael A.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.

2016-01-01

Background The incidence of opioid-related death in women has increased five-fold over the past decade. For many women, their initial opioid exposure will occur in the setting of routine medical care. Approximately 1 in 3 deliveries in the U.S. is by Cesarean and opioids are commonly prescribed for post-surgical pain management. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk that opioid naïve women prescribed opioids after Cesarean delivery will subsequently become consistent prescription opioid users in the year following delivery, and to identify predictors for this behavior. Study Design We identified women in a database of commercial insurance beneficiaries who underwent Cesarean delivery and who were opioid-naïve in the year prior to delivery. To identify persistent users of opioids, we used trajectory models, which group together patients with similar patterns of medication filling during follow-up, based on patterns of opioid dispensing in the year following Cesarean delivery. We then constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for membership in the persistent user group. Results 285 of 80,127 (0.36%, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.40), opioid-naïve women became persistent opioid users (identified using trajectory models based on monthly patterns of opioid dispensing) following Cesarean delivery. Demographics and baseline comorbidity predicted such use with moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.73). Significant predictors included a history of cocaine abuse (risk 7.41%; adjusted odds ratio 6.11, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 36.31) and other illicit substance abuse (2.36%; adjusted odds ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 6.91), tobacco use (1.45%; adjusted odds ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 2.03 to 4.55), back pain (0.69%; adjusted odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.29), migraines (0.91%; adjusted odds ratio 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 2.90), antidepressant use (1.34%; adjusted odds ratio 3.19, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 4.23) and benzodiazepine use (1.99%; adjusted odds ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.64 to 5.26) in the year prior to Cesarean delivery. Conclusions A very small proportion of opioid-naïve women (approximately 1 in 300) become persistent prescription opioid users following Cesarean delivery. Pre-existing psychiatric comorbidity, certain pain conditions, and substance use/abuse conditions identifiable at the time of initial opioid prescribing were predictors of persistent use. PMID:26996986

Alternative methods to evaluate trial level surrogacy.

PubMed

Abrahantes, Josè Cortiñas; Shkedy, Ziv; Molenberghs, Geert

2008-01-01

The evaluation and validation of surrogate endpoints have been extensively studied in the last decade. Prentice [1] and Freedman, Graubard and Schatzkin [2] laid the foundations for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in randomized clinical trials. Later, Buyse et al. [5] proposed a meta-analytic methodology, producing different methods for different settings, which was further studied by Alonso and Molenberghs [9], in their unifying approach based on information theory. In this article, we focus our attention on the trial-level surrogacy and propose alternative procedures to evaluate such surrogacy measure, which do not pre-specify the type of association. A promising correction based on cross-validation is investigated. As well as the construction of confidence intervals for this measure. In order to avoid making assumption about the type of relationship between the treatment effects and its distribution, a collection of alternative methods, based on regression trees, bagging, random forests, and support vector machines, combined with bootstrap-based confidence interval and, should one wish, in conjunction with a cross-validation based correction, will be proposed and applied. We apply the various strategies to data from three clinical studies: in opthalmology, in advanced colorectal cancer, and in schizophrenia. The results obtained for the three case studies are compared; they indicate that using random forest or bagging models produces larger estimated values for the surrogacy measure, which are in general stabler and the confidence interval narrower than linear regression and support vector regression. For the advanced colorectal cancer studies, we even found the trial-level surrogacy is considerably different from what has been reported. In general the alternative methods are more computationally demanding, and specially the calculation of the confidence intervals, require more computational time that the delta-method counterpart. First, more flexible modeling techniques can be used, allowing for other type of association. Second, when no cross-validation-based correction is applied, overly optimistic trial-level surrogacy estimates will be found, thus cross-validation is highly recommendable. Third, the use of the delta method to calculate confidence intervals is not recommendable since it makes assumptions valid only in very large samples. It may also produce range-violating limits. We therefore recommend alternatives: bootstrap methods in general. Also, the information-theoretic approach produces comparable results with the bagging and random forest approaches, when cross-validation correction is applied. It is also important to observe that, even for the case in which the linear model might be a good option too, bagging methods perform well too, and their confidence intervals were more narrow.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Exposure to power frequency electric fields and the risk of childhood cancer in the UK

PubMed Central

Skinner, J; Mee, T J; Blackwell, R P; Maslanyj, M P; Simpson, J; Allen, S G; Day, N E

2002-01-01

The United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study covering the whole of Great Britain, incorporated a pilot study measuring electric fields. Measurements were made in the homes of 473 children who were diagnosed with a malignant neoplasm between 1992 and 1996 and who were aged 0–14 at diagnosis, together with 453 controls matched on age, sex and geographical location. Exposure assessments comprised resultant spot measurements in the child's bedroom and the family living-room. Temporal stability of bedroom fields was investigated through continuous logging of the 48-h vertical component at the child's bedside supported by repeat spot measurements. The principal exposure metric used was the mean of the pillow and bed centre measurements. For the 273 cases and 276 controls with fully validated measures, comparing those with a measured electric field exposure ⩾20 V m−1 to those in a reference category of exposure <10 V m−1, odds ratios of 1.31 (95% confidence interval 0.68–2.54) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.73–2.39) for total leukaemia, 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.78–5.78) for central nervous system cancers and 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.77–2.07) for all malignancies were obtained. When considering the 426 cases and 419 controls with no invalid measures, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.49–1.51) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.54) for total leukaemia, 1.43 (95% confidence interval 0.68–3.02) for central nervous system cancers and 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.59–1.35) for all malignancies. With exposure modelled as a continuous variable, odds ratios for an increase in the principal metric of 10 V m−1 were close to unity for all disease categories, never differing significantly from one. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 87, 1257–1266. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600602 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK PMID:12439715

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

Can 3-dimensional power Doppler indices improve the prenatal diagnosis of a potentially morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa?

PubMed

Haidar, Ziad A; Papanna, Ramesha; Sibai, Baha M; Tatevian, Nina; Viteri, Oscar A; Vowels, Patricia C; Blackwell, Sean C; Moise, Kenneth J

2017-08-01

Traditionally, 2-dimensional ultrasound parameters have been used for the diagnosis of a suspected morbidly adherent placenta previa. More objective techniques have not been well studied yet. The objective of the study was to determine the ability of prenatal 3-dimensional power Doppler analysis of flow and vascular indices to predict the morbidly adherent placenta objectively. A prospective cohort study was performed in women between 28 and 32 gestational weeks with known placenta previa. Patients underwent a two-dimensional gray-scale ultrasound that determined management decisions. 3-Dimensional power Doppler volumes were obtained during the same examination and vascular, flow, and vascular flow indices were calculated after manual tracing of the viewed placenta in the sweep; data were blinded to obstetricians. Morbidly adherent placenta was confirmed by histology. Severe morbidly adherent placenta was defined as increta/percreta on histology, blood loss >2000 mL, and >2 units of PRBC transfused. Sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Student t and χ 2 tests, logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristic curves, and intra- and interrater agreements using Kappa statistics were performed. The following results were found: (1) 50 women were studied: 23 had morbidly adherent placenta, of which 12 (52.2%) were severe morbidly adherent placenta; (2) 2-dimensional parameters diagnosed morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity of 82.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.4-94.2), a specificity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 69.7-97.1), a positive predictive value of 86.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0-96.4), a negative predictive value of 85.7% (95% confidence interval, 66.4-95.3), a positive likelihood ratio of 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-21.9), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.48); (3) mean values of the vascular index (32.8 ± 7.4) and the vascular flow index (14.2 ± 3.8) were higher in morbidly adherent placenta (P < .001); (4) area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the vascular and vascular flow indices were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively; (5) the vascular index ≥21 predicted morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity and a specificity of 95% (95% confidence interval, 88.2-96.9) and 91%, respectively (95% confidence interval, 87.5-92.4), 92% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 85.5-94.3), 90% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 79.9-95.3), positive likelihood ratio of 10.55 (95% confidence interval, 7.06-12.75), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.13); and (6) for the severe morbidly adherent placenta, 2-dimensional ultrasound had a sensitivity of 33.3% (95% confidence interval, 11.3-64.6), a specificity of 81.8% (95% confidence interval, 47.8-96.8), a positive predictive value of 66.7% (95% confidence interval, 24.1-94.1), a negative predictive value of 52.9% (95% confidence interval, 28.5-76.1), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-8.11), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-1.26). A vascular index ≥31 predicted the diagnosis of a severe morbidly adherent placenta with a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 72-100), a 90% specificity (95% confidence interval, 81.7-93.8), an 88% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 55.0-91.3), a 100% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 90.9-100), a positive likelihood ratio of 10.0 (95% confidence interval, 3.93-16.13), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0 (95% confidence interval, 0-0.34). Intrarater and interrater agreements were 94% (P < .001) and 93% (P < .001), respectively. The vascular index accurately predicts the morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa. In addition, 3-dimensional power Doppler vascular and vascular flow indices were more predictive of severe cases of morbidly adherent placenta compared with 2-dimensional ultrasound. This objective technique may limit the variations in diagnosing morbidly adherent placenta because of the subjectivity of 2-dimensional ultrasound interpretations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

PubMed

Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

2011-06-01

For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

Comparison of WBRT alone, SRS alone, and their combination in the treatment of one or more brain metastases: Review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Muhammad; Lin, Jie; Liao, Guixiang; Li, Rong; Wang, Baiyao; Xie, Guozhu; Zheng, Jieling; Yuan, Yawei

2017-07-01

Whole brain radiotherapy has been a standard treatment of brain metastases. Stereotactic radiosurgery provides more focal and aggressive radiation and normal tissue sparing but worse local and distant control. This meta-analysis was performed to assess and compare the effectiveness of whole brain radiotherapy alone, stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and their combination in the treatment of brain metastases based on randomized controlled trial studies. Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) were searched to identify randomized controlled trial studies that compared treatment outcome of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiosurgery. This meta-analysis was performed using the Review Manager (RevMan) software (version 5.2) that is provided by the Cochrane Collaboration. The data used were hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated for time-to-event data extracted from survival curves and local tumor control rate curves. Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous data, while mean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for continuous data. Fixed-effects or random-effects models were adopted according to heterogeneity. Five studies (n = 763) were included in this meta-analysis meeting the inclusion criteria. All the included studies were randomized controlled trials. The sample size ranged from 27 to 331. In total 202 (26%) patients with whole brain radiotherapy alone, 196 (26%) patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and 365 (48%) patients were in whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery group. No significant survival benefit was observed for any treatment approach; hazard ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.43, p = 0.12) based on three randomized controlled trials for whole brain radiotherapy only compared to whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery and hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.29, p = 0.81) for stereotactic radiosurgery only compared to combined approach. Local control was best achieved when whole brain radiotherapy was combined with stereotactic radiosurgery. Hazard ratio 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-3.09, p = 0.0006) and hazard ratio 1.84 (95% confidence interval: 1.26-2.70, p = 0.002) were obtained from comparing whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only to whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery, respectively. No difference in adverse events for treatment difference; odds ratio 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-1.76, p = 0.48) and odds ratio 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-1.42, p = 71) for whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole brain radiotherapy only and whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus stereotactic radiosurgery only, respectively. Adding stereotactic radiosurgery to whole brain radiotherapy provides better local control as compared to whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only with no difference in radiation related toxicities.

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam

PubMed Central

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-01-01

Background To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12–15 years of age in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Design Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants 2238 secondary school children. Methods Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Main Outcome Measures Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. Results The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5–26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8–15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (–0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8–28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0–0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2–1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Conclusions Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. PMID:24299145

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-04-01

To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12-15 years of age in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Prospective, cross-sectional study. 2238 secondary school children. Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5-26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8-15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (-0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8-28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0-0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd on behalf of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Dietary Pattern and Risk of Hodgkin Lymphoma in a Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Epstein, Mara M.; Chang, Ellen T.; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T.; Batista, Julie L.; Ambinder, Richard F.; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E.; Birmann, Brenda M.

2015-01-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997–2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns (“vegetable,” “high meat,” “fruit/low-fat dairy,” “desserts/sweets”) using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. PMID:26182945

Dietary pattern and risk of hodgkin lymphoma in a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Epstein, Mara M; Chang, Ellen T; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T; Batista, Julie L; Ambinder, Richard F; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E; Birmann, Brenda M

2015-09-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997-2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns ("vegetable," "high meat," "fruit/low-fat dairy," "desserts/sweets") using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

2014-05-01

One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input variable of different ANN structures [3]. The performance of each ANN structure is evaluated by the voting analysis based on eleven criteria, which are the root mean square error (RMSE), the correlation index (R), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the mean percentage error (MPE), the mean percentage error (ME), the percentage volume in errors (VE), the percentage error in peak (MF), the normalized mean bias error (NMBE), the normalized root mean bias error (NRMSE), the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E1). The next day flow for the test set is calculated using the best ANN structure's model. Consequently, the confidence intervals of various confidence levels for training, evaluation and test sets are compared in order to explore the generalisation dynamics of confidence intervals from training and evaluation sets. [1] H.S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, R.C. Souza, "Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 16, no. 1, 2001, pp. 44-55. [2] G. J. Tsekouras, N.E. Mastorakis, F.D. Kanellos, V.T. Kontargyri, C.D. Tsirekis, I.S. Karanasiou, Ch.N. Elias, A.D. Salis, P.A. Kontaxis, A.A. Gialketsi: "Short term load forecasting in Greek interconnected power system using ANN: Confidence Interval using a novel re-sampling technique with corrective Factor", WSEAS International Conference on Circuits, Systems, Electronics, Control & Signal Processing, (CSECS '10), Vouliagmeni, Athens, Greece, December 29-31, 2010. [3] D. Panagoulia, I. Trichakis, G. J. Tsekouras: "Flow Forecasting via Artificial Neural Networks - A Study for Input Variables conditioned on atmospheric circulation", European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2012 (NH1.1 / AS1.16 - Extreme meteorological and hydrological events induced by severe weather and climate change), Vienna, Austria, 22-27 April 2012.

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

Treesearch

Steve Verrill

2003-01-01

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Prevalence of infections among residents of Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Choy, C Sm; Chen, H; Yau, C Sw; Hsu, E K; Chik, N Y; Wong, A Ty

2016-08-01

A point prevalence study was conducted to study the epidemiology of common infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong and their associated factors. Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong were selected by stratified single-stage cluster random sampling. All residents aged 65 years or above from the recruited homes were surveyed. Infections were identified using standardised definitions. Demographic and health information-including medical history, immunisation record, antibiotic use, and activities of daily living (as measured by Barthel Index)-was collected by a survey team to determine any associated factors. Data were collected from 3857 residents in 46 Residential Care Homes for the Elderly from February to May 2014. A total of 105 residents had at least one type of infection based on the survey definition. The overall prevalence of all infections was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-3.4%). The three most common infections were of the respiratory tract (1.3%; 95% confidence interval, 0.9%-1.9%), skin and soft tissue (0.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-1.0%), and urinary tract (0.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-0.9%). Total dependence in activities of daily living, as indicated by low Barthel Index score of 0 to 20 (odds ratio=3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.2), and presence of a wound or stoma (odds ratio=2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.9) were significantly associated with presence of infection. This survey provides information about infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in the territory. Local data enable us to understand the burden of infections and formulate targeted measures for prevention.

Influence of Objective Three-Dimensional Measures and Movement Images on Surgeon Treatment Planning for Lip Revision Surgery

PubMed Central

Trotman, Carroll-Ann; Phillips, Ceib; Faraway, Julian J.; Hartman, Terry; van Aalst, John A.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether a systematic evaluation of facial soft tissues of patients with cleft lip and palate, using facial video images and objective three-dimensional measurements of movement, change surgeons’ treatment plans for lip revision surgery. Design Prospective longitudinal study. Setting The University of North Carolina School of Dentistry. Patients, Participants A group of patients with repaired cleft lip and palate (n = 21), a noncleft control group (n = 37), and surgeons experienced in cleft care. Interventions Lip revision. Main Outcome Measures (1) facial photographic images; (2) facial video images during animations; (3) objective three-dimensional measurements of upper lip movement based on z scores; and (4) objective dynamic and visual three-dimensional measurement of facial soft tissue movement. Results With the use of the video images plus objective three-dimensional measures, changes were made to the problem list of the surgical treatment plan for 86% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.97) and the surgical goals for 71% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.48 to 0.89). The surgeon group varied in the percentage of patients for whom the problem list was modified, ranging from 24% (95% confidence interval, 8% to 47%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients, and the percentage for whom the surgical goals were modified, ranging from 14% (94% confidence interval, 3% to 36%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients. Conclusions For all surgeons, the additional assessment components of the systematic valuation resulted in a change in clinical decision making for some patients. PMID:23855676

Air pollution attributable postneonatal infant mortality in U.S. metropolitan areas: a risk assessment study

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Reinhard; Romieu, Isabelle; Medina, Sylvia; Schwartz, Joel; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino

2004-01-01

Background The impact of outdoor air pollution on infant mortality has not been quantified. Methods Based on exposure-response functions from a U.S. cohort study, we assessed the attributable risk of postneonatal infant mortality in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas related to particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10) as a surrogate of total air pollution. Results The estimated proportion of all cause mortality, sudden infant death syndrome (normal birth weight infants only) and respiratory disease mortality (normal birth weight) attributable to PM10 above a chosen reference value of 12.0 μg/m3 PM10 was 6% (95% confidence interval 3–11%), 16% (95% confidence interval 9–23%) and 24% (95% confidence interval 7–44%), respectively. The expected number of infant deaths per year in the selected areas was 106 (95% confidence interval 53–185), 79 (95% confidence interval 46–111) and 15 (95% confidence interval 5–27), respectively. Approximately 75% of cases were from areas where the current levels are at or below the new U.S. PM2.5 standard of 15 μg/m3 (equivalent to 25 μg/m3 PM10). In a country where infant mortality rates and air pollution levels are relatively low, ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter contributes to a substantial fraction of infant death, especially for those due to sudden infant death syndrome and respiratory disease. Even if all counties would comply to the new PM2.5 standard, the majority of the estimated burden would remain. Conclusion Given the inherent limitations of risk assessments, further studies are needed to support and quantify the relationship between infant mortality and air pollution. PMID:15128459

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

Practice Patterns and Outcomes for Pemetrexed Plus Platinum Doublet as Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Adenocarcinomas of Lung: Looking Beyond the Usual Paradigm.

PubMed

Noronha, V; Zanwar, S; Joshi, A; Patil, V M; Mahajan, A; Janu, A; Agarwal, J P; Bhargava, P; Kapoor, A; Prabhash, K

2018-01-01

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is the standard of care in non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) with locally advanced N2 disease. There is a scarcity of data for the pemetrexed-platinum regimen as NACT. Also, apart from N2 disease, the role of NACT in locally advanced NSCLCs for tumour downstaging is unclear. Non-metastatic adenocarcinomas of lung treated with pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT were analysed. The patients with locoregionally advanced N2 disease and those who were borderline candidates for upfront definitive treatment were planned for NACT after discussion in a multidisciplinary clinic. In total, four cycles of 3-weekly pemetrexed and platinum were delivered in the combined neoadjuvant and adjuvant setting. A response assessment was carried out using RECIST criteria. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Of 114 patients, 96 evaluable patients received NACT with pemetrexed-platinum. The most common indication for NACT was N2 disease at baseline (46.8%). The objective response rate was 36.4% (95% confidence interval 22-52%), including two complete and 32 partial responses, whereas 12.5% of patients had progressive disease on NACT. The median PFS was 14 months (95% confidence interval 10.7-17.3) and the median overall survival was 22 months (95% confidence interval 15.6-28.4) at a median follow-up of 16 months. There was a significant improvement in the overall survival of patients undergoing definitive therapy versus no definitive therapy (median overall survival 25 months [95% confidence interval 19.6-30.4] versus 12 months [95% confidence interval 3.2-20.7], respectively; P = 0.015, hazard ratio 0.56 [95% confidence interval 0.3-0.9]). Among patients who could not undergo definitive chemoradiation upfront due to dosimetric constraints (n = 34), 24 (70.6%) patients finally underwent definitive therapy after NACT. Pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT seems to be an effective option and many borderline cases, where upfront definitive therapy is not feasible, may become amenable to the same after incorporation of NACT. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Decision-Making Methods for Criterion-Referenced Tests.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haladyna, Tom; Roid, Gale

The problems associated with misclassifying students when pass-fail decisions are based on test scores are discussed. One protection against misclassification is to set a confidence interval around the cutting score. Those whose scores fall above the interval are passed; those whose scores fall below the interval are failed; and those whose scores…

Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

Effect of Intensive Versus Standard Clinic-Based Hypertension Management on Ambulatory Blood Pressure: Results From the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) Ambulatory Blood Pressure Study.

PubMed

Drawz, Paul E; Pajewski, Nicholas M; Bates, Jeffrey T; Bello, Natalie A; Cushman, William C; Dwyer, Jamie P; Fine, Lawrence J; Goff, David C; Haley, William E; Krousel-Wood, Marie; McWilliams, Andrew; Rifkin, Dena E; Slinin, Yelena; Taylor, Addison; Townsend, Raymond; Wall, Barry; Wright, Jackson T; Rahman, Mahboob

2017-01-01

The effect of clinic-based intensive hypertension treatment on ambulatory blood pressure (BP) is unknown. The goal of the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) ambulatory BP ancillary study was to evaluate the effect of intensive versus standard clinic-based BP targets on ambulatory BP. Ambulatory BP was obtained within 3 weeks of the 27-month study visit in 897 SPRINT participants. Intensive treatment resulted in lower clinic systolic BP (mean difference between groups=16.0 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 14.1-17.8 mm Hg), nighttime systolic BP (mean difference=9.6 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 7.7-11.5 mm Hg), daytime systolic BP (mean difference=12.3 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 10.6-13.9 mm Hg), and 24-hour systolic BP (mean difference=11.2 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 9.7-12.8 mm Hg). The night/day systolic BP ratio was similar between the intensive (0.92±0.09) and standard-treatment groups (0.91±0.09). There was considerable lack of agreement within participants between clinic systolic BP and daytime ambulatory systolic BP with wide limits of agreement on Bland-Altman plots. In conclusion, targeting a systolic BP of <120 mm Hg, when compared with <140 mm Hg, resulted in lower nighttime, daytime, and 24-hour systolic BP, but did not change the night/day systolic BP ratio. Ambulatory BP monitoring may be required to assess the effect of targeted hypertension therapy on out of office BP. Further studies are needed to assess whether targeting hypertension therapy based on ambulatory BP improves clinical outcomes. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01835249. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Acceptance of technology-based tools in a sample of Parkinson's patients.

PubMed

Duroseau, Nathalie; Abramson, Tobi; Pergament, Kathleen; Chan, Vivian; Govindavari, John Paul; Ciraco, Christina; Tegay, David; Krishnamachari, Bhuma

2017-03-01

Objectives Parkinson's disease is the second most common neurodegenerative movement disorder in the United States. Patients' opinions of technology-based tools for education and communication as related to Parkinson's disease are unclear with little documented research addressing the issue. The goal of this research was to investigate patient opinions about technology-based tools with a focus on differences between patients of different age groups. Methods A cross-sectional survey was used to assess views on using multiple different electronic methods for receiving instructions and communicating with healthcare providers in 109 Parkinson's disease patients. Results Approximately 28% (n = 28) of the subjects reported having unmet needs related to Parkinson's disease. Those 65 and over were less likely to believe that using technology to communicate with the healthcare center would result in themselves having a better understanding of their care (odds ratio = 0.36, 95% confidence interval: 0.14, 0.95). Those over 75 had a lower odds of being willing to use electronic methods (odds ratio = 0.33, 95% confidence interval: 0.14, 0.79), a lower odds of believing that technology would result in better self-understanding of medical needs (odds ratio = 0.27, 95% confidence interval: 0.12, 0.63) and a lower odds of believing that technology would result in their healthcare providers better understanding their needs (odds ratio = 0.32, 95% confidence interval: 0.14, 0.73). Discussion The results of this study indicate that older Parkinson's disease patients report a less favorable view regarding the role of technology in communicating with healthcare providers and for understanding their care.

Sex hormones and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 9-year follow up among elderly men in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Räihä, Ismo; Niskanen, Leo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Irjala, Kerttu

2015-05-01

To analyze whether sex hormone levels predict the incidence of type2 diabetes among elderly Finnish men. This was a prospective population-based study, with a 9-year follow up period. The study population in the municipality of Lieto, Finland, consisted of elderly (age ≥64 years) men free of type 2 diabetes at baseline in 1998-1999 (n = 430). Body mass index and cardiovascular disease-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for type 2 diabetes predicted by testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, luteinizing hormone, and testosterone/luteinizing hormone were estimated. A total of 30 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed during the follow-up period. After adjustment, only higher levels of testosterone (hazard ratio for one-unit increase 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99, P = 0.020) and free testosterone (hazard ratio for 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00, P = 0.044) were associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes during the follow up. These associations (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.00, P = 0.050 and 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00, P = 0.035, respectively) persisted even after additional adjustment of sex hormone-binding globulin. Higher levels of testosterone and free testosterone independently predicted a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in the elderly men. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

N-acetyltransferase 2 gene polymorphism as a biomarker for susceptibility to bladder cancer in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Hosen, Md Bayejid; Islam, Jahidul; Salam, Md Abdus; Islam, Md Fakhrul; Hawlader, M Zakir Hossain; Kabir, Yearul

2015-03-01

To investigate the association between the three most common single nucleotide polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene together with cigarette smoking and the risk of developing bladder cancer and its aggressiveness. A case-control study on 102 bladder cancer patients and 140 control subjects was conducted. The genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells and N-acetyltransferase 2 alleles were differentiated by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism methods. Bladder cancer risk was estimated as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval using binary logistic regression models adjusting for age and gender. Overall, N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were associated with bladder cancer risk (odds ratio=4.45; 95% confidence interval=2.26-8.77). The cigarette smokers with slow genotypes were found to have a sixfold increased risk to develop bladder cancer (odds ratio=6.05; 95% confidence interval=2.23-15.82). Patients with slow acetylating genotypes were more prone to develop high-grade (odds ratio=6.63; 95% confidence interval=1.15-38.13; P<0.05) and invasive (odds ratio=10.6; 95% confidence interval=1.00-111.5; P=0.05) tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype together with tobacco smoking increases bladder cancer risk. Patients with N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were more likely to develop a high-grade and invasive tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype is an important genetic determinant for bladder cancer in Bangladesh population. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

PubMed Central

Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents after a hurricane.

PubMed

Garrison, C Z; Weinrich, M W; Hardin, S B; Weinrich, S; Wang, L

1993-10-01

A school-based study conducted in 1990, 1 year after Hurricane Hugo, investigated the frequency and correlates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 1,264 adolescents aged 11-17 years residing in selected South Carolina communities. Data were collected via a 174-item self-administered questionnaire that included a PTSD symptom scale. A computer algorithm that applied decision rules of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised to the symptoms reported was used to assign a diagnosis of PTSD and to designate the number of individuals who met the reexperiencing (20%), avoidance (9%), and arousal (18%) criteria. Rates of PTSD were lowest in black males (1.5%) and higher, but similar, in the remaining groups (3.8-6.2%). Results from a multivariable logistic model indicated that exposure to the hurricane (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.41), experiencing other violent traumatic events (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.75-3.44), being white (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.69) and being female (OR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.10) were significant correlates of PTSD.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

Test Accuracy of Informant-Based Cognitive Screening Tests for Diagnosis of Dementia and Multidomain Cognitive Impairment in Stroke.

PubMed

McGovern, Aine; Pendlebury, Sarah T; Mishra, Nishant K; Fan, Yuhua; Quinn, Terence J

2016-02-01

Poststroke cognitive assessment can be performed using standardized questionnaires designed for family or care givers. We sought to describe the test accuracy of such informant-based assessments for diagnosis of dementia/multidomain cognitive impairment in stroke. We performed a systematic review using a sensitive search strategy across multidisciplinary electronic databases. We created summary test accuracy metrics and described reporting and quality using STARDdem and Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) tools, respectively. From 1432 titles, we included 11 studies. Ten papers used the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). Four studies described IQCODE for diagnosis of poststroke dementia (n=1197); summary sensitivity: 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.93); summary specificty: 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.93). Five studies described IQCODE as tool for predicting future dementia (n=837); summary sensitivity: 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.83); summary specificity: 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-1.00). All papers had issues with at least 1 aspect of study reporting or quality. There is a limited literature on informant cognitive assessments in stroke. IQCODE as a diagnostic tool has test properties similar to other screening tools, IQCODE as a prognostic tool is specific but insensitive. We found no papers describing test accuracy of informant tests for diagnosis of prestroke cognitive decline, few papers on poststroke dementia and all included papers had issues with potential bias. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Knowledge level of effect size statistics, confidence intervals and meta-analysis in Spanish academic psychologists.

PubMed

Badenes-Ribera, Laura; Frias-Navarro, Dolores; Pascual-Soler, Marcos; Monterde-I-Bort, Héctor

2016-11-01

The statistical reform movement and the American Psychological Association (APA) defend the use of estimators of the effect size and its confidence intervals, as well as the interpretation of the clinical significance of the findings. A survey was conducted in which academic psychologists were asked about their behavior in designing and carrying out their studies. The sample was composed of 472 participants (45.8% men). The mean number of years as a university professor was 13.56 years (SD= 9.27). The use of effect-size estimators is becoming generalized, as well as the consideration of meta-analytic studies. However, several inadequate practices still persist. A traditional model of methodological behavior based on statistical significance tests is maintained, based on the predominance of Cohen’s d and the unadjusted R2/η2, which are not immune to outliers or departure from normality and the violations of statistical assumptions, and the under-reporting of confidence intervals of effect-size statistics. The paper concludes with recommendations for improving statistical practice.

Pregnancy and birth outcomes in couples with infertility with and without assisted reproductive technology: with an emphasis on US population-based studies.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara

2017-09-01

Infertility, defined as the inability to conceive within 1 year of unprotected intercourse, affects an estimated 80 million individuals worldwide, or 10-15% of couples of reproductive age. Assisted reproductive technology includes all infertility treatments to achieve conception; in vitro fertilization is the process by which an oocyte is fertilized by semen outside the body; non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology treatments include ovulation induction, artificial insemination, and intrauterine insemination. Use of assisted reproductive technology has risen steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades due to several reasons, including childbearing at older maternal ages and increasing insurance coverage. The number of in vitro fertilization cycles in the United States has nearly doubled from 2000 through 2013 and currently 1.7% of all live births in the United States are the result of this technology. Since the birth of the first child from in vitro fertilization >35 years ago, >5 million babies have been born from in vitro fertilization, half within the past 6 years. It is estimated that 1% of singletons, 19% of twins, and 25% of triplet or higher multiples are due to in vitro fertilization, and 4%, 21%, and 52%, respectively, are due to non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology. Higher plurality at birth results in a >10-fold increase in the risks for prematurity and low birthweight in twins vs singletons (adjusted odds ratio, 11.84; 95% confidence interval, 10.56-13.27 and adjusted odds ratio, 10.68; 95% confidence interval, 9.45-12.08, respectively). The use of donor oocytes is associated with increased risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.78) and prematurity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.83). The use of thawed embryos is associated with higher risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.57) and large-for-gestation birthweight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.08). Among singletons, in vitro fertilization is associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with fertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.88; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.98, respectively) and subfertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-3.00; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.35, respectively). Among twins, cesarean in vitro fertilization deliveries have significantly greater severe maternal morbidity compared to cesarean fertile deliveries (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.93). Subfertility, with or without in vitro fertilization or non-in vitro fertilization infertility treatments to achieve a pregnancy, is associated with increased risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. The major risk from in vitro fertilization treatments of multiple births (and the associated excess of perinatal morbidity) has been reduced over time, with fewer and better-quality embryos being transferred. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

PubMed

Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

Fluorine 18 fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT volume-based indices in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer: prediction of residual viable tumor after induction chemotherapy.

PubMed

Soussan, Michael; Cyrta, Joanna; Pouliquen, Christelle; Chouahnia, Kader; Orlhac, Fanny; Martinod, Emmanuel; Eder, Véronique; Morère, Jean-François; Buvat, Irène

2014-09-01

To study whether volume-based indices of fluorine 18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomographic (PET)/computed tomographic (CT) imaging is an accurate tool to predict the amount of residual viable tumor after induction chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study was approved by institutional review board with waivers of informed consent. Twenty-two patients with locally advanced NSCLC underwent surgery after induction chemotherapy. All had pre- and posttreatment FDG PET/CT scans. CT largest diameter, CT volume, maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), mean SUV (SUVmean), metabolic tumor volume (TV), and total lesion glycolysis of primary tumor were calculated. Changes in tumor measurements were determined by dividing follow-up by baseline measurement (ratio index). Amounts of residual viable tumor, necrosis, fibrous tissue, inflammatory infiltrate, and Ki-67 proliferative index were estimated on resected tumor. Correlations between imaging indices and histologic parameters were estimated by using Spearman correlation coefficients or Mann-Whitney tests. No baseline or posttreatment indices correlated with percentage of residual viable tumor. TV ratio was the only index that correlated with percentage of residual viable tumor (r = 0.61 [95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.81]; P = .003). Conversely, SUVmax and SUVmean ratios were only indices correlated with Ki-67 (r = 0.62 [95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.82]; P = .003; and r = 0.60 [95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.81]; P = .004, respectively). Total lesion glycolysis ratio was moderately correlated with residual viable tumor (r = 0.53 [95% confidence interval: 0.13, 0.78]; P = .01) and with Ki-67 (r = 0.57 [95% confidence interval: 0.18, 0.80]; P = .006). No ratios were correlated with presence of inflammatory infiltrate or foamy macrophages. TV and total lesion glycolysis ratios were the only indices correlated with residual viable tumor after induction chemotherapy in locally advanced NSCLC.

Association of urinary calcium excretion with serum calcium and vitamin D levels.

PubMed

Rathod, Anita; Bonny, Olivier; Guessous, Idris; Suter, Paolo M; Conen, David; Erne, Paul; Binet, Isabelle; Gabutti, Luca; Gallino, Augusto; Muggli, Franco; Hayoz, Daniel; Péchère-Bertschi, Antoinette; Paccaud, Fred; Burnier, Michel; Bochud, Murielle

2015-03-06

Population-based data on urinary calcium excretion are scarce. The association of serum calcium and circulating levels of vitamin D [25(OH)D2 or D3] with urinary calcium excretion in men and women from a population-based study was explored. Multivariable linear regression was used to explore factors associated with square root-transformed 24-hour urinary calcium excretion (milligrams per 24 hours) taken as the dependent variable with a focus on month-specific vitamin D tertiles and serum calcium in the Swiss Survey on Salt Study. In total, 624 men and 669 women were studied with mean ages of 49.2 and 47.0 years, respectively (age range=15-95 years). Mean urinary calcium excretion was higher in men than in women (183.05 versus 144.60 mg/24 h; P<0.001). In adjusted models, the association (95% confidence interval) of square root urinary calcium excretion with protein-corrected serum calcium was 1.78 (95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 2.34) mg/24 h per milligram per deciliter in women and 0.59 (95% confidence interval, -0.11 to 1.29) mg/24 h per milligram per deciliter in men. Men in the third 25(OH)D3 tertile had higher square root urinary calcium excretion than men in the first tertile (0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 1.63 mg/24 h per nanogram per milliliter), and the corresponding association was 0.32 (95% confidence interval, -0.22 to 0.85) mg/24 h per nanogram per milliliter in women. These sex differences were more marked under conditions of high urinary sodium or urea excretions. There was a positive association of serum calcium with urinary calcium excretion in women but not men. Vitamin 25(OH)D3 was associated with urinary calcium excretion in men but not women. These results suggest important sex differences in the hormonal and dietary control of urinary calcium excretion. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Neonatal Infection in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Smilga, Anne-Sophie; Garfinkle, Jarred; Ng, Pamela; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-03-01

The goal of this study was to explore the association between neonatal infection and outcomes in children with cerebral palsy. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Canadian CP Registry. Neonatal infection was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: (1) septicemia, (2) septic shock, or (3) administration of antibiotics for ≥10 days. Phenotypic profiles of children with cerebral palsy with and without an antecedent neonatal infection were compared. Subgroup analysis was performed, stratified by gestational age (term versus preterm). Of the 1229 registry participants, 505 (41.1%) were preterm, and 192 (15.6%) met the criteria for neonatal infection with 29% of preterm children having a neonatal infection compared with 6.5% in term-born children. Children with prior neonatal infection were more likely to have a white matter injury (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.2), spastic diplegic neurological subtype (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.3), and sensorineural auditory impairment (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.3). Among preterm children, neonatal infection was not associated with a difference in phenotypic profile. Term-born children with neonatal infection were more likely to have spastic triplegia or quadriplegia (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.3), concomitant white matter and cortical injury (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 10.3), and more severe gross motor ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System IV to V) (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8) compared with preterm children. Findings suggest a role of systemic infection on the developing brain in term-born infants, and the possibility to develop targeted therapeutic and preventive strategies to reduce cerebral palsy morbidity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Suicide in patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sugawara, Akitomo; Kunieda, Etsuo

2016-09-01

We conducted this study to examine the rate of suicide in patients with gastric cancer and to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The database was queried for patients who were diagnosed with gastric cancer from 1998 to 2011. The rate of suicide and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide. A total of 65 535 patients with 109 597 person-years of follow-up were included. A total of 68 patients died of suicide. The age-adjusted rate of suicide was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years (standardized mortality ratios, 4.07; 95% confidence interval, 3.18-5.13). The rate of suicide was highest within the first 3 months after cancer diagnosis (standardized mortality ratios, 67.67; 95% confidence interval, 40.74-106.15). Results of multivariable analyses showed that male sex (incidence rate ratio, 7.15; 95% confidence interval, 3.05-16.78; P < 0.0001), White race (incidence rate ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-10.35; P = 0.0491), unmarried status (incidence rate ratio, 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.30; P = 0.0060) and distant stage disease (incidence rate ratio, 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.72-4.92; P < 0.0001) were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. Patients with gastric cancer have an ~4-fold higher risk of suicide compared with the general US population. The suicide risk is highest within the first 3 months after diagnosis. Male sex, White race, unmarried status and distant stage disease are significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prescription of Zolpidem and the Risk of Fatal Motor Vehicle Collisions: A Population-Based, Case-Crossover Study from South Korea.

PubMed

Yang, Bo Ram; Kim, Ye-Jee; Kim, Mi-Sook; Jung, Sun-Young; Choi, Nam-Kyong; Hwang, Byungkwan; Park, Byung-Joo; Lee, Joongyub

2018-05-23

Zolpidem is one of the most frequently used hypnotics worldwide, but associations with serious adverse effects such as motor vehicle collisions have been reported. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of fatal motor vehicle collisions with a prescription for zolpidem, considering the context of the motor vehicle collisions. We conducted a case-crossover study, where each case served as its own control, by linking data about fatal motor vehicle collisions from the Korean Road Traffic Authority between 2010 and 2014 with national health insurance data. The case period was defined as 1 day before the fatal motor vehicle collisions, and was matched to four control periods at 90-day intervals. Conditional logistic regression was performed to calculate the odds ratio for fatal motor vehicle collisions associated with zolpidem exposure, and odds ratios were adjusted for time-varying exposure to confounding medications. A stratified analysis was performed by age group (younger than 65 years or not), the Charlson Comorbidity Index, and whether patients were new zolpidem users. Among the 714 subjects, the adjusted odds ratio for a fatal motor vehicle collision associated with a prescription for zolpidem the previous day was 1.48 (95% confidence interval 1.06-2.07). After stratification, a significantly increased risk was observed in subjects with a high Charlson Comorbidity Index (odds ratio 1.81; 95% confidence interval 1.16-2.84), the younger age group (odds ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence interval 1.03-2.56), and new zolpidem users (odds ratio 2.37; 95% confidence interval 1.40-4.00). A prescription for zolpidem on the previous day was significantly related to an increased risk of fatal motor vehicle collisions in this population-based case-crossover study.

Associations between maternal periconceptional exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and major birth defects.

PubMed

Hoyt, Adrienne T; Canfield, Mark A; Romitti, Paul A; Botto, Lorenzo D; Anderka, Marlene T; Krikov, Sergey V; Tarpey, Morgan K; Feldkamp, Marcia L

2016-11-01

While associations between secondhand smoke and a few birth defects (namely, oral clefts and neural tube defects) have been noted in the scientific literature, to our knowledge, there is no single or comprehensive source of population-based information on its associations with a range of birth defects among nonsmoking mothers. We utilized data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a large population-based multisite case-control study, to examine associations between maternal reports of periconceptional exposure to secondhand smoke in the household or workplace/school and major birth defects. The multisite National Birth Defects Prevention Study is the largest case-control study of birth defects to date in the United States. We selected cases from birth defect groups having >100 total cases, as well as all nonmalformed controls (10,200), from delivery years 1997 through 2009; 44 birth defects were examined. After excluding cases and controls from multiple births and whose mothers reported active smoking or pregestational diabetes, we analyzed data on periconceptional secondhand smoke exposure-encompassing the period 1 month prior to conception through the first trimester. For the birth defect craniosynostosis, we additionally examined the effect of exposure in the second and third trimesters as well due to the potential sensitivity to teratogens for this defect throughout pregnancy. Covariates included in all final models of birth defects with ≥5 exposed mothers were study site, previous live births, time between estimated date of delivery and interview date, maternal age at estimated date of delivery, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, nativity, household income divided by number of people supported by this income, periconceptional alcohol consumption, and folic acid supplementation. For each birth defect examined, we used logistic regression analyses to estimate both crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for both isolated and total case groups for various sources of exposure (household only; workplace/school only; household and workplace/school; household or workplace/school). The prevalence of secondhand smoke exposure only across all sources ranged from 12.9-27.8% for cases and 14.5-15.8% for controls. The adjusted odds ratios for any vs no secondhand smoke exposure in the household or workplace/school and isolated birth defects were significantly elevated for neural tube defects (anencephaly: adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.25; and spina bifida: adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.86); orofacial clefts (cleft lip without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.81; cleft lip with or without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.46; cleft palate alone: adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.63); bilateral renal agenesis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.75); amniotic band syndrome-limb body wall complex (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.51); and atrial septal defects, secundum (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.72). There were no significant inverse associations observed. Additional studies replicating the findings are needed to better understand the moderate positive associations observed between periconceptional secondhand smoke and several birth defects in this analysis. Increased odds ratios resulting from chance (eg, multiple comparisons) or recall bias cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0.204)], respectively. Income elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.098 [95% confidence interval (0.018, 0.178)], 0.136 [95% confidence interval (0.028, 0.245)] and 0.521 [95% confidence interval (0.438, 0.605)], respectively. The aforementioned results are in 2008, which hold similar pattern as results in 2003 as well as results from pooled data of two periods. First, no significant difference is detected between sensitivity of outpatient services and sensitivity of inpatient services, responding to own-price change. Second, inpatient services are substitutes to outpatient services. Third, the growth of inpatient services is faster than the growth in outpatient services in response to income growth. The major findings from this paper suggest refining insurance policy in rural China. First, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, changing outpatient price is at least as effective as changing inpatient price to adjust demand of health care. Second, the current national guideline of healthcare reform to increase the reimbursement rate for inpatient services will crowd out outpatient services; however, we have no evidence about the change in demand for inpatient service if insurance covers outpatient services. Third, a referral system and gate-keeping system should be established to guide rural patients to utilize outpatient service. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An approach for sample size determination of average bioequivalence based on interval estimation.

PubMed

Chiang, Chieh; Hsiao, Chin-Fu

2017-03-30

In 1992, the US Food and Drug Administration declared that two drugs demonstrate average bioequivalence (ABE) if the log-transformed mean difference of pharmacokinetic responses lies in (-0.223, 0.223). The most widely used approach for assessing ABE is the two one-sided tests procedure. More specifically, ABE is concluded when a 100(1 - 2α) % confidence interval for mean difference falls within (-0.223, 0.223). As known, bioequivalent studies are usually conducted by crossover design. However, in the case that the half-life of a drug is long, a parallel design for the bioequivalent study may be preferred. In this study, a two-sided interval estimation - such as Satterthwaite's, Cochran-Cox's, or Howe's approximations - is used for assessing parallel ABE. We show that the asymptotic joint distribution of the lower and upper confidence limits is bivariate normal, and thus the sample size can be calculated based on the asymptotic power so that the confidence interval falls within (-0.223, 0.223). Simulation studies also show that the proposed method achieves sufficient empirical power. A real example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determining the Number of Ischemic Strokes Potentially Eligible for Endovascular Thrombectomy: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Chia, Nicholas H; Leyden, James M; Newbury, Jonathan; Jannes, Jim; Kleinig, Timothy J

2016-05-01

Endovascular thrombectomy (ET) is standard-of-care for ischemic stroke patients with large vessel occlusion, but estimates of potentially eligible patients from population-based studies have not been published. Such data are urgently needed to rationally plan hyperacute services. Retrospective analysis determined the incidence of ET-eligible ischemic strokes in a comprehensive population-based stroke study (Adelaide, Australia 2009-2010). Stroke patients were stratified via a prespecified eligibility algorithm derived from recent ET trials comprising stroke subtype, pathogenesis, severity, premorbid modified Rankin Score, presentation delay, large vessel occlusion, and target mismatch penumbra. Recognizing centers may interpret recent ET trials either loosely or rigidly; 2 eligibility algorithms were applied: restrictive (key criteria modified Rankin Scale score 0-1, presentation delay <3.5 hours, and target mismatch penumbra) and permissive (modified Rankin Scale score 0-3 and presentation delay <5 hours). In a population of 148 027 people, 318 strokes occurred in the 1-year study period (crude attack rate 215 [192-240] per 100 000 person-years). The number of ischemic strokes eligible by restrictive criteria was 17/258 (7%; 95% confidence intervals 4%-10%) and by permissive criteria, an additional 16 were identified, total 33/258 (13%; 95% confidence intervals 9%-18%). Two of 17 patients (and 6/33 permissive patients) had thrombolysis contraindications. Using the restrictive algorithm, there were 11 (95% confidence intervals 4-18) potential ET cases per 100 000 person-years or 22 (95% confidence intervals 13-31) using the permissive algorithm. In this cohort, ≈7% of ischemic strokes were potentially eligible for ET (13% with permissive criteria). In similar populations, the permissive criteria predict that ≤22 strokes per 100 000 person-years may be eligible for ET. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Association between gestational weight gain and perinatal outcomes in women with chronic hypertension.

PubMed

Yee, Lynn M; Caughey, Aaron B; Cheng, Yvonne W

2017-09-01

Gestational weight gain above or below the 2009 National Academy of Medicine guidelines has been associated with adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Although it has been well established that excess gestational weight gain is associated with the development of gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, the relationship between gestational weight gain and adverse perinatal outcomes among women with pregestational (chronic) hypertension is less clear. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between gestational weight gain above and below National Academy of Medicine guidelines and perinatal outcomes in a large, population-based cohort of women with chronic hypertension. This is a population-based retrospective cohort study of women with chronic hypertension who had term, singleton, vertex births in the United States from 2012 through 2014. Prepregnancy body mass index was calculated using self-reported prepregnancy weight and height. Women were categorized into 4 groups based on gestational weight gain and prepregnancy body mass index: (1) weight gain less than, (2) weight gain within, (3) weight gain 1-19 lb in excess of, and (4) weight gain ≥20 lb in excess of the National Academy of Medicine guidelines. The χ 2 tests and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used for statistical comparisons. Stratified analyses by body mass index category were additionally performed. In this large birth cohort, 101,259 women met criteria for inclusion. Compared to hypertensive women who had gestational weight gain within guidelines, hypertensive women with weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines were more likely to have eclampsia (adjusted odds ratio, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.54-2.42) and cesarean delivery (adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.50-1.70). Excess weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines was also associated with increased odds of 5-minute Apgar <7 (adjusted odds ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.47), neonatal intensive care unit admission (adjusted odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.33), and large-for-gestational-age neonates (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 2.27-2.56) as well as decreased odds of small-for-gestational-age status (adjusted odds ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.58). Weight gain 1-19 lb over guidelines was associated with similar fetal growth outcomes although with a smaller effect size. In contrast, weight gain less than National Academy of Medicine guidelines was not associated with adverse maternal outcomes but was associated with increased odds of small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.52) and decreased odds of large-for-gestational-age status (adjusted odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.92). Analysis of maternal and neonatal outcomes stratified by body mass index demonstrated similar findings. Women with chronic hypertension who gain less weight than National Academy of Medicine guidelines experience increased odds of small-for-gestational-age neonates, whereas excess weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines is associated with cesarean delivery, eclampsia, 5-minute Apgar <7, neonatal intensive care unit admission, and large-for-gestational-age neonates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stark, Philip B.

1992-01-01

The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

Religious hospital policies on reproductive care: what do patients want to know?

PubMed

Freedman, Lori R; Hebert, Luciana E; Battistelli, Molly F; Stulberg, Debra B

2018-02-01

Religious hospitals are a large and growing part of the American healthcare system. Patients who receive obstetric and other reproductive care in religious hospitals may face religiously-based restrictions on the treatment their doctor can provide. Little is known about patients' knowledge or preferences regarding religiously restricted reproductive healthcare. We aimed to assess women's preferences for knowing a hospital's religion and religiously based restrictions before deciding where to seek care and the acceptability of a hospital denying miscarriage treatment options for religious reasons, with and without informing the patient that other options may be available. We conducted a national survey of women aged 18-45 years. The sample was recruited from AmeriSpeak, a probability-based research panel of civilian noninstitutionalized adults. Of 2857 women invited to participate, 1430 completed surveys online or over the phone, for a survey response rate of 50.1%. All analyses adjusted for the complex sampling design and were weighted to generate estimates representative of the population of US adult reproductive-age women. We used χ 2 tests and multivariable logistic regression to evaluate associations. One third of women aged 18-45 years (34.5%) believe it is somewhat or very important to know a hospital's religion when deciding where to get care, but 80.7% feel it is somewhat or very important to know about a hospital's religious restrictions on care. Being Catholic or attending religious services more frequently does not make one more or less likely to want this information. Compared with Protestant women who do not identify as born-again, women of other religious backgrounds are more likely to consider it important to know a hospital's religious affiliation. These include religious minority women (adjusted odds ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-4.27), those who reported no religion/atheist/agnostic (adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-4.34), and born-again Protestants (adjusted odds ratio, 2.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-4.28). Religious minority women (adjusted odds ratio, 2.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-5.51) and those who reported no religion/atheist/agnostic (adjusted odds ratio, 3.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.42-7.04) were more likely to want to know a hospital's restrictions on care. More than two thirds of women find it unacceptable for the hospital to restrict information and treatment options during miscarriage based on religion. Women who attended weekly religious services were significantly more likely to accept such restrictions (adjusted odds ratio, 3.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-5.76) and to consider transfer to another site an acceptable solution (adjusted odds ratio, 3.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.69-6.12). The question, "When should a religious hospital be allowed to restrict care based on religion?" was asked, and 52.3% responded never; 16.6%, always; and 31.1%,"under some conditions. The vast majority of adult American women of reproductive age want information about a hospital's religious restrictions on care when deciding where to go for obstetrics/gynecology care. Growth in the US Catholic health care sector suggests an increasing need for transparency about these restrictions so that women can make informed decisions and, when needed, seek alternative providers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

2013-01-01

Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousins, R. D.

The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Physical activity and mortality: is the association explained by genetic selection?

PubMed

Carlsson, Sofia; Andersson, Tomas; Lichtenstein, Paul; Michaëlsson, Karl; Ahlbom, Anders

2007-08-01

Public health recommendations promote physical activity to improve health and longevity. Recent data suggest that the association between physical activity and mortality may be due to genetic selection. Using data on twins, the authors investigated whether genetic selection explains the association between physical activity and mortality. Data were based on a postal questionnaire answered by 13,109 Swedish twin pairs in 1972. The national Cause of Death Register was used for information about all-cause mortality (n=1,800) and cardiovascular disease mortality (n=638) during 1975-2004. The risk of death was reduced by 34% for men (relative risk=0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.83) and by 25% for women (relative risk=0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 1.14) reporting high physical activity levels. Within-pair comparisons of monozygotic twins showed that, compared with their less active co-twin, the more active twin had a 20% (odds ratio=0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.99) reduced risk of all-cause mortality and a 32% (odds ratio=0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.49, 0.95) reduced risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. Results indicate that physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of mortality not due to genetic selection. This finding supports a causal link between physical activity and mortality.

Confidence intervals for the first crossing point of two hazard functions.

PubMed

Cheng, Ming-Yen; Qiu, Peihua; Tan, Xianming; Tu, Dongsheng

2009-12-01

The phenomenon of crossing hazard rates is common in clinical trials with time to event endpoints. Many methods have been proposed for testing equality of hazard functions against a crossing hazards alternative. However, there has been relatively few approaches available in the literature for point or interval estimation of the crossing time point. The problem of constructing confidence intervals for the first crossing time point of two hazard functions is considered in this paper. After reviewing a recent procedure based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event, a nonparametric procedure using the kernel smoothing estimate of the hazard ratio is proposed. The proposed procedure and the one based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event are both evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to two clinical trial datasets.

Race, Ethnicity, Language, Social Class, and Health Communication Inequalities: A Nationally-Representative Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Viswanath, Kasisomayajula; Ackerson, Leland K.

2011-01-01

Background While mass media communications can be an important source of health information, there are substantial social disparities in health knowledge that may be related to media use. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of cancer-related health communications is patterned by race, ethnicity, language, and social class. Methodology/Principal Findings In a nationally-representative cross-sectional telephone survey, 5,187 U.S. adults provided information about demographic characteristics, cancer information seeking, and attention to and trust in health information from television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and the Internet. Cancer information seeking was lowest among Spanish-speaking Hispanics (odds ratio: 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.28–0.63) compared to non-Hispanic whites. Spanish-speaking Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 3.10; 95% confidence interval: 2.07–4.66) and trust (odds ratio: 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.53–4.47) health messages from the radio. Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 2.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.88–3.04) and trust (odds ratio: 2.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.61–2.90) health messages on television. Those who were college graduates tended to pay more attention to health information from newspapers (odds ratio: 1.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.42–2.75), magazines (odds ratio: 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–2.60), and the Internet (odds ratio: 4.74; 95% confidence interval: 2.70–8.31) and had less trust in cancer-related health information from television (odds ratio: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.32–0.62) and radio (odds ratio: 0.54; 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.86) compared to those who were not high school graduates. Conclusions/Significance Health media use is patterned by race, ethnicity, language and social class. Providing greater access to and enhancing the quality of health media by taking into account factors associated with social determinants may contribute to addressing social disparities in health. PMID:21267450

Nonparametric spirometry reference values for Hispanic Americans.

PubMed

Glenn, Nancy L; Brown, Vanessa M

2011-02-01

Recent literature sites ethnic origin as a major factor in developing pulmonary function reference values. Extensive studies established reference values for European and African Americans, but not for Hispanic Americans. The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey defines Hispanic as individuals of Spanish speaking cultures. While no group was excluded from the target population, sample size requirements only allowed inclusion of individuals who identified themselves as Mexican Americans. This research constructs nonparametric reference value confidence intervals for Hispanic American pulmonary function. The method is applicable to all ethnicities. We use empirical likelihood confidence intervals to establish normal ranges for reference values. Its major advantage: it is model free, but shares asymptotic properties of model based methods. Statistical comparisons indicate that empirical likelihood interval lengths are comparable to normal theory intervals. Power and efficiency studies agree with previously published theoretical results.

Association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and susceptibility to vitiligo: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Silky; Changotra, Harish

2017-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 gene, which translates to lymphoid tyrosine phosphatase, is considered to be a susceptibility gene marker associated with several autoimmune diseases. Several studies have demonstrated the association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo. However, these studies showed conflicting results. Meta-analysis of the same was conducted earlier that included fewer number of publications in their study. We performed a meta-analysis of a total of seven studies consisting of 2094 cases and 3613 controls to evaluate the possible association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C>T polymorphism with vitiligo susceptibility. We conducted a literature search in PubMed, Google Scholar and Dogpile for all published paper on protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and vitiligo risk till June 2016. Data analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 and comprehensive meta-analysis v3.0 software. Meta-analysis showed an overall significant association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non- receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo in all models (allelic model [T vs. C]: odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [1.32-1.71], P< 0.001; dominant model [TT + CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [1.16-2.24], P = 0.004; recessive model [TT vs. CT + CC]: odds ratio = 4.82, 95% confidence interval [1.11-20.92], P = 0.04; homozygous model [TT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 5.34, 95% confidence interval [1.23-23.24], P = 0.03; co-dominant model [CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [1.09-2.13], P = 0.01). No publication bias was detected in the funnel plot study. Limited ethnic-based studies, unable to satisfy data by gender or vitiligo-type are some limitations of the present meta-analysis. Stratifying data by ethnicity showed an association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T with vitiligo in European population (odds ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [1.34-1.75], P< 0.001) but not in Asian population (odds ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [0.26-1.32], P = 0.2). In conclusion, protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858 T allele predisposes European individuals to vitiligo.

Preconceptional and prenatal supplementary folic acid and multivitamin intake and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Virk, Jasveer; Liew, Zeyan; Olsen, Jørn; Nohr, Ellen A; Catov, Janet M; Ritz, Beate

2016-08-01

To evaluate whether early folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in offspring. Information on autism spectrum disorder diagnosis was obtained from the National Hospital Register and the Central Psychiatric Register. We estimated risk ratios for autism spectrum disorders for children whose mothers took folate or multivitamin supplements from 4 weeks prior from the last menstrual period through to 8 weeks after the last menstrual period (-4 to 8 weeks) by three 4-week periods. We did not find an association between early folate or multivitamin intake for autism spectrum disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.36; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.22), autistic disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.84; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.69), Asperger's syndrome (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.53; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.46), or pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.54; multivitamin: adjusted risk ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-1.17) compared with women reporting no supplement use in the same period. We did not find any evidence to corroborate previous reports of a reduced risk for autism spectrum disorders in offspring of women using folic acid supplements in early pregnancy. © The Author(s) 2015.

Abstract: Inference and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models.

PubMed

Falk, Carl F; Biesanz, Jeremy C

2011-11-30

Models specifying indirect effects (or mediation) and structural equation modeling are both popular in the social sciences. Yet relatively little research has compared methods that test for indirect effects among latent variables and provided precise estimates of the effectiveness of different methods. This simulation study provides an extensive comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals and for making inferences about indirect effects with latent variables. We compared the percentile (PC) bootstrap, bias-corrected (BC) bootstrap, bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrap, likelihood-based confidence intervals (Neale & Miller, 1997), partial posterior predictive (Biesanz, Falk, and Savalei, 2010), and joint significance tests based on Wald tests or likelihood ratio tests. All models included three reflective latent variables representing the independent, dependent, and mediating variables. The design included the following fully crossed conditions: (a) sample size: 100, 200, and 500; (b) number of indicators per latent variable: 3 versus 5; (c) reliability per set of indicators: .7 versus .9; (d) and 16 different path combinations for the indirect effect (α = 0, .14, .39, or .59; and β = 0, .14, .39, or .59). Simulations were performed using a WestGrid cluster of 1680 3.06GHz Intel Xeon processors running R and OpenMx. Results based on 1,000 replications per cell and 2,000 resamples per bootstrap method indicated that the BC and BC a bootstrap methods have inflated Type I error rates. Likelihood-based confidence intervals and the PC bootstrap emerged as methods that adequately control Type I error and have good coverage rates.

Socioeconomic Status, Structural and Functional Measures of Social Support, and Mortality

PubMed Central

Stringhini, Silvia; Berkman, Lisa; Dugravot, Aline; Ferrie, Jane E.; Marmot, Michael; Kivimaki, Mika; Singh-Manoux, Archana

2012-01-01

The authors examined the associations of social support with socioeconomic status (SES) and with mortality, as well as how SES differences in social support might account for SES differences in mortality. Analyses were based on 9,333 participants from the British Whitehall II Study cohort, a longitudinal cohort established in 1985 among London-based civil servants who were 35–55 years of age at baseline. SES was assessed using participant's employment grades at baseline. Social support was assessed 3 times in the 24.4-year period during which participants were monitored for death. In men, marital status, and to a lesser extent network score (but not low perceived support or high negative aspects of close relationships), predicted both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Measures of social support were not associated with cancer mortality. Men in the lowest SES category had an increased risk of death compared with those in the highest category (for all-cause mortality, hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.08; for cardiovascular mortality, hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 3.92). Network score and marital status combined explained 27% (95% confidence interval: 14, 43) and 29% (95% confidence interval: 17, 52) of the associations between SES and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In women, there was no consistent association between social support indicators and mortality. The present study suggests that in men, social isolation is not only an important risk factor for mortality but is also likely to contribute to differences in mortality by SES. PMID:22534202

Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, C. Deha

2017-01-01

Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

2016-01-01

Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

2016-05-01

Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p < 0.001). Maternal anemia was associated with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.36), postpartum infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.39-2.57), transfusion (adjusted odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.65-2.13) and stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.94), reduced odds of postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.98) and low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.86). No other outcomes were statistically significant. This study shows the incidence of antenatal anemia is decreasing steadily within this Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Opioid analgesia in mechanically ventilated children: results from the multicenter Measuring Opioid Tolerance Induced by Fentanyl study.

PubMed

Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Clark, Amy E; Willson, Douglas F; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Zimmerman, Jerry J; Harrison, Rick; Carcillo, Joseph A; Newth, Christopher J L; Bisping, Stephanie; Holubkov, Richard; Dean, J Michael; Nicholson, Carol E

2013-01-01

To examine the clinical factors associated with increased opioid dose among mechanically ventilated children in the pediatric intensive care unit. Prospective, observational study with 100% accrual of eligible patients. Seven pediatric intensive care units from tertiary-care children's hospitals in the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Four hundred nineteen children treated with morphine or fentanyl infusions. None. Data on opioid use, concomitant therapy, demographic and explanatory variables were collected. Significant variability occurred in clinical practices, with up to 100-fold differences in baseline opioid doses, average daily or total doses, or peak infusion rates. Opioid exposure for 7 or 14 days required doubling of the daily opioid dose in 16% patients (95% confidence interval 12%-19%) and 20% patients (95% confidence interval 16%-24%), respectively. Among patients receiving opioids for longer than 3 days (n = 225), this occurred in 28% (95% confidence interval 22%-33%) and 35% (95% confidence interval 29%-41%) by 7 or 14 days, respectively. Doubling of the opioid dose was more likely to occur following opioid infusions for 7 days or longer (odds ratio 7.9, 95% confidence interval 4.3-14.3; p < 0.001) or co-therapy with midazolam (odds ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4-12.9; p < 0.001), and it was less likely to occur if morphine was used as the primary opioid (vs. fentanyl) (odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.92; p = 0.03), for patients receiving higher initial doses (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98; p < 0.001), or if patients had prior pediatric intensive care unit admissions (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.89; p = 0.03). Mechanically ventilated children require increasing opioid doses, often associated with prolonged opioid exposure or the need for additional sedation. Efforts to reduce prolonged opioid exposure and clinical practice variation may prevent the complications of opioid therapy.

Numeric pathologic lymph node classification shows prognostic superiority to topographic pN classification in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Sugawara, Kotaro; Yamashita, Hiroharu; Uemura, Yukari; Mitsui, Takashi; Yagi, Koichi; Nishida, Masato; Aikou, Susumu; Mori, Kazuhiko; Nomura, Sachiyo; Seto, Yasuyuki

2017-10-01

The current eighth tumor node metastasis lymph node category pathologic lymph node staging system for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is based solely on the number of metastatic nodes and does not consider anatomic distribution. We aimed to assess the prognostic capability of the eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node staging system (numeric-based) compared with the 11th Japan Esophageal Society (topography-based) pathologic lymph node staging system in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 289 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent esophagectomy with extended lymph node dissection during the period from January 2006 through June 2016. We compared discrimination abilities for overall survival, recurrence-free survival, and cancer-specific survival between these 2 staging systems using C-statistics. The median number of dissected and metastatic nodes was 61 (25% to 75% quartile range, 45 to 79) and 1 (25% to 75% quartile range, 0 to 3), respectively. The eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node staging system had a greater ability to accurately determine overall survival (C-statistics: tumor node metastasis classification, 0.69, 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.76; Japan Esophageal Society classification; 0.65, 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.71; P = .014) and cancer-specific survival (C-statistics: tumor node metastasis classification, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.87; Japan Esophageal Society classification; 0.72, 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.80; P = .018). Rates of total recurrence rose as the eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node stage increased, while stratification of patients according to the topography-based node classification system was not feasible. Numeric nodal staging is an essential tool for stratifying the oncologic outcomes of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma even in the cohort in which adequate numbers of lymph nodes were harvested. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intrauterine fetal death and risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery.

PubMed

Larsen, Sandra; Dobbin, Joanna; McCallion, Oliver; Eskild, Anne

2016-12-01

Vaginal delivery is recommended after intrauterine fetal death. However, little is known about the risk of shoulder dystocia in these deliveries. We studied whether intrauterine fetal death increases the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery. In this population-based register study using the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, we included all singleton pregnancies with vaginal delivery of offspring in cephalic presentation in Norway during the period 1967-2012 (n = 2 266 118). Risk of shoulder dystocia was estimated as absolute risk (%) and odds ratio with 95% confidence interval. Adjustment was made for offspring birthweight (in grams). We performed sub-analyses within categories of birthweight (<4000 and ≥4000 g) and in pregnancies with maternal diabetes. Shoulder dystocia occurred in 1.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 0.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.0001) (crude odds ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2-4.9). After adjustment for birthweight, the odds ratio was 5.9 (95% confidence interval 4.7-7.4). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g, shoulder dystocia occurred in 14.6% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 2.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 4.5-7.9). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g and concurrent maternal diabetes, shoulder dystocia occurred in 57.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and 9.6% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 12.6, 95% confidence interval 5.9-26.9). Intrauterine fetal death increased the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery, and the absolute risk of shoulder dystocia was particularly high if offspring birthweight was high and the mother had diabetes. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Educational achievement among long-term survivors of congenital heart defects: a Danish population-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Olsen, Morten; Hjortdal, Vibeke E; Mortensen, Laust H; Christensen, Thomas D; Sørensen, Henrik T; Pedersen, Lars

2011-04-01

Congenital heart defect patients may experience neurodevelopmental impairment. We investigated their educational attainments from basic schooling to higher education. Using administrative databases, we identified all Danish patients with a cardiac defect diagnosis born from 1 January, 1977 to 1 January, 1991 and alive at age 13 years. As a comparison cohort, we randomly sampled 10 persons per patient. We obtained information on educational attainment from Denmark's Database for Labour Market Research. The study population was followed until achievement of educational levels, death, emigration, or 1 January, 2006. We estimated the hazard ratio of attaining given educational levels, conditional on completing preceding levels, using discrete-time Cox regression and adjusting for socio-economic factors. Analyses were repeated for a sub-cohort of patients and controls born at term and without extracardiac defects or chromosomal anomalies. We identified 2986 patients. Their probability of completing compulsory basic schooling was approximately 10% lower than that of control individuals (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.79, ranged from 0.75 to 0.82 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.82). Their subsequent probability of completing secondary school was lower than that of the controls, both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.80) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.86). The probability of attaining a higher degree, conditional on completion of youth education, was affected both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.01) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.07). The probability of educational attainment was reduced among long-term congenital heart defect survivors.

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

2012-01-01

The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

2007-01-01

Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Calf and replacement heifer mortality from birth until weaning in pasture-based dairy herds in New Zealand.

PubMed

Cuttance, E L; Mason, W A; McDermott, J; Laven, R A; McDougall, S; Phyn, C V C

2017-10-01

The aims of this study were to (1) estimate the perinatal (birth to 24 h) and postnatal (∼24 h to the mean weaning age of 13 wk) mortality risk in pasture-based dairy calves until weaning, and (2) identify associated risk factors in the 2015 calving season. A prospective survey of 32 seasonal calving dairy farms was undertaken. Farmers recorded (daily) the number and sex of the calves alive or dead in the paddocks where cows calved. All daily animal movements in and out of the calf rearing facilities, including death and euthanasia, and the identification of the animals (if applicable) were recorded, and a survey of the farm management practices was undertaken. Individual and farm-level risk factors for perinatal mortality were modeled separately using generalized logistic mixed models with a random effect fitted for herd. Postnatal mortality incidence risk was calculated using time at risk for each calf from 24 h of age, collapsed into weeks, and multiplying the incidence risk by the mean weaning age of the study population. Farm-level risk factors contributing to postnatal mortality in the first week of life were assessed using a multivariable logistic mixed regression model. The mean perinatal mortality risk was 5.7% (95% confidence interval 5.4 to 6.1%) with a range from 2.2 to 8.6% (18,437 calves, 30 farms). Perinatal calf mortality was greater for male relative to female calves (odds ratio 1.39; 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 1.59), calves born in the first week of the calving period in comparison to wk 2 to 11 (odds ratio 0.32 to 0.66), and those born on days with greater rainfall (odds ratio 1.01 per 1 mm increase; 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.02). At the farm level, perinatal mortality increased for every extra week of calving period length (odds ratio 1.12; 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.17). The mean postnatal mortality risk was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.6 to 4.6%) with a range of 0 to 11% between farms. Farm-level risk factors contributing to mortality in the first week of life included farmer-reported disease problems in calves (odds ratio 2.2; 95% confidence interval 1.62 to 2.96), or calves hand-fed colostrum in the first 12 h of life (odds ratio 1.66; 95% confidence interval 1.26 to 2.19), which was assumed to be associated with poor colostrum quality and bacterial contamination. Regional differences were also observed in both perinatal and postnatal mortality risks, indicating that weather conditions, herd size, and management variations contribute to mortality incidence. In summary, the mortality risk of perinatal calves and postnatal calves until weaning on pasture-based farms is comparable with data published from other dairying systems despite the notable management differences. Several risk factors were identified that could be managed to reduce mortality incidence of dairy calves. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Depressive symptoms in nonresident african american fathers and involvement with their sons.

PubMed

Davis, R Neal; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Clark, Sarah J; Davis, Matthew M

2009-12-01

Our objective was to determine whether paternal depressive symptoms were associated with less father involvement among African American fathers not living with their children (ie, nonresident fathers). We analyzed survey data for 345 fathers enrolled in a program for nonresident African American fathers and their preteen sons. Father involvement included measures of contact, closeness, monitoring, communication, and conflict. We used bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine associations between father involvement and depressive symptoms. Thirty-six percent of fathers reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 11% reported severe depressive symptoms. In bivariate analyses, depressive symptoms were associated with less contact, less closeness, low monitoring, and increased conflict. In multivariate analyses controlling for basic demographic features, fathers with moderate depressive symptoms were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-2.8]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.5]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.2]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-3.6]). Fathers with severe depressive symptoms also were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 3.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-7.2]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.7]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-7.1]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-5.9]). Paternal depressive symptoms may be an important, but modifiable, barrier for nonresident African American fathers willing to be more involved with their children.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Steiner, Markus Fc; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. A retrospective, cohort study. Scotland. 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Risk factors of childhood asthma in children attending Lyari General Hospital.

PubMed

Kamran, Amber; Hanif, Shahina; Murtaza, Ghulam

2015-06-01

To determine the factors associated with asthma in children. The case-control study was conducted in the paediatrics clinic of Lyari General Hospital, Karachi, from May to October 2010. Children 1-15 years of age attending the clinic represented the cases, while the control group had children who were closely related (sibling or cousin) to the cases but did not have the symptoms of disease at the time. Data was collected through a proforma and analysed using SPSS 10. Of the total 346 subjects, 173(50%) each comprised the two groups. According to univariable analysis the risk factors were presence of at least one smoker (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-5.8), resident of kacha house (odds ratio: 16.2; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-69.5),living in room without windows (odds ratio: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-40.9) and living in houses without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.4).Using multivariable modelling, family history of asthma (odds ratio: 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-11.6), presence of at least one smoker at home (odds ratio: 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-7.2), people living in a room without a window (odds ratio: 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-26.3) and people living in an area without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.31) were found to be independent risk factors of asthma in children adjusting for age, gender and history of weaning. Family history of asthma, children living with at least one smoker at home, room without windows and people living in an area without sunlight were major risk factors of childhood asthma.

Fetal and neonatal outcomes of preterm infants born before 32 weeks of gestation according to antenatal vs postnatal assessments of restricted growth.

PubMed

Monier, Isabelle; Ancel, Pierre-Yves; Ego, Anne; Jarreau, Pierre-Henri; Lebeaux, Cécile; Kaminski, Monique; Goffinet, François; Zeitlin, Jennifer

2017-05-01

Fetal growth restriction is defined using ultrasound parameters during pregnancy or as a low birthweight for gestational age after birth, but these definitions are not always concordant. The purpose of this study was to investigate fetal and neonatal outcomes based on antenatal vs postnatal assessments of growth restriction. From the EPIPAGE 2 population-based prospective study of very preterm births in France in 2011, we included 2919 singleton nonanomalous infants 24-31 weeks gestational age. We constituted 4 groups based on whether the infant was suspected with fetal growth restriction during pregnancy and/or was small for gestational age with a birthweight <10th percentile of intrauterine norms by sex: 1) suspected with fetal growth restriction/small for gestational age 2) not suspected with fetal growth restriction/small for gestational age 3) suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small for gestational age and 4) not suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small for gestational age. We estimated relative risks of perinatal mortality and morbidity for these groups adjusting for maternal and neonatal characteristics. We found that 22.2% of infants were suspected with fetal growth restriction/small for gestational age, that 11.4% infants were not suspected with fetal growth restriction/small for gestational age, that 3.0% infants were suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small for gestational age, and that 63.4% infants were not suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small for gestational age. Compared with infants who were not suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small-for-gestational-age infants, small-for-gestational-age infants suspected and not suspected with fetal growth restriction had higher risks of stillbirth or termination of pregnancy (adjusted relative risk, 2.0 [95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.5] and adjusted relative risk, 2.8 [95% confidence interval, 2.2-3.4], respectively), in-hospital death (adjusted relative risk, 2.8 [95% confidence interval, 2.0-3.7] and adjusted relative risk, 2.0 [95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.8], respectively), and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (adjusted relative risk, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.4] and adjusted relative risk, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.4], respectively), but not severe brain lesions. Risks were not increased for infants suspected with fetal growth restriction but not small-for-gestational-age. Antenatal and postnatal assessments of fetal growth restriction were not concordant for 14% of very preterm infants. In these cases, birthweight appears to be the more relevant parameter for the identification of infants with higher risks of adverse short-term outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Confidence Intervals for Squared Semipartial Correlation Coefficients: The Effect of Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2010-01-01

The increase in the squared multiple correlation coefficient ([delta]R[superscript 2]) associated with a variable in a regression equation is a commonly used measure of importance in regression analysis. Algina, Keselman, and Penfield found that intervals based on asymptotic principles were typically very inaccurate, even though the sample size…

Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

2018-01-17

Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 29.87); number of deliveries = 1 (3.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 44.85); personal pathological history (4.78, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 10.59); pathological obstetric history (5.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.66 to 15.18); maternal height < 150 cm (5.16, 95% confidence interval: 3.08 to 8.65); number of births ≥ 5 (5.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.51 to 69.99); and smoking (15.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 227.97). Four of the independent variables (personal pathological history, obstetric pathological history, maternal stature <150 centimeters and smoking) showed a significant positive contribution, thus they can be considered as clear risk factors for low birth weight. The use of the logistic regression model in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, will allow estimating the probability of low birth weight for each pregnant woman in the future, which will be useful for the health authorities of the region.

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li

With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman filter (EKF) can be used as an integrated adaptive learning and confidence interval estimation algorithm for neural networks, with fast convergence and small confidence intervals. However, EKF learning is computationally expensive because it involves high dimensional matrix manipulations. A modified U-D factorization within the decoupled EKF (DEKF-UD) framework is developed in this research. The computational efficiency and numerical stability are significantly improved.

To be involved or not to be involved: a survey of public preferences for self-involvement in decision-making involving mental capacity (competency) within Europe.

PubMed

Daveson, Barbara A; Bausewein, Claudia; Murtagh, Fliss E M; Calanzani, Natalia; Higginson, Irene J; Harding, Richard; Cohen, Joachim; Simon, Steffen T; Deliens, Luc; Bechinger-English, Dorothee; Hall, Sue; Koffman, Jonathan; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Haugen, Dagny F; Gomes, Barbara

2013-05-01

The Council of Europe has recommended that member states of European Union encourage their citizens to make decisions about their healthcare before they lose capacity to do so. However, it is unclear whether the public wants to make such decisions beforehand. To examine public preferences for self-involvement in end-of-life care decision-making and identify associated factors. A population-based survey with 9344 adults in England, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Across countries, 74% preferred self-involvement when capable; 44% preferred self-involvement when incapable through, for example, a living will. Four factors were associated with a preference for self-involvement across capacity and incapacity scenarios, respectively: higher educational attainment ((odds ratio = 1.93-2.77), (odds ratio = 1.33-1.80)); female gender ((odds ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.14-1.41), (odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.20-1.42)); younger-middle age ((30-59 years: odds ratio = 1.24-1.40), (50-59 years: odds ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.46)) and valuing quality over quantity of life or valuing both equally ((odds ratio = 1.49-1.58), (odds ratio = 1.35-1.53)). Those with increased financial hardship (odds ratio = 0.64-0.83) and a preference to die in hospital (not a palliative care unit) (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.88), a nursing home or residential care (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.54-0.99) were less likely to prefer self-involvement when capable. For the incapacity scenario, single people were more likely to prefer self-involvement (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval = 1.18-1.53). Self-involvement in decision-making is important to the European public. However, a large proportion of the public prefer to not make decisions about their care in advance of incapacity. Financial hardship, educational attainment, age, and preferences regarding quality and quantity of life require further examination; these factors should be considered in relation to policy.

Circulating tocopherols and risk of coronary artery disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Guangxiao; Li, Ying; Chen, Xin; Sun, Hao; Hou, Xiaowen; Shi, Jingpu

2016-05-01

Circulating level of tocopherols was supposed to be associated with risk of coronary artery disease. However, the results from previous studies remain controversial. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis based on observational studies to evaluate the association between circulating tocopherols and coronary artery disease risk for the first time. Meta-analysis. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched to retrieve articles published during January 1995 and May 2015. Articles were included if they provided sufficient information to calculate the weighted mean difference and its corresponding 95% confidence interval. Circulating level of total tocopherols was significantly lower in coronary artery disease patients than that in controls (weighted mean difference -4.33 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -6.74 to -1.91, P < 0.01). However, circulating α-tocopherol alone was not significantly associated with coronary artery disease risk. Results from subgroup analyses showed that a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was merely associated with higher coronary artery disease risk in studies with higher sex ratio in cases (<2, weighted mean difference -0.07 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -1.15 to 1.00, P = 0.90; ≥ 2, weighted mean difference -6.00 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.76 to -2.22, P < 0.01). Similarly, a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was associated with early onset coronary artery disease rather than late onset coronary artery disease (<60 years, weighted mean difference -5.40 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.22 to -1.57, P < 0.01; ≥ 60 years, weighted mean difference -1.37 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -3.48 to 0.74, P = 0.20). We also found some discrepancies in circulating total tocopherols when the studies were stratified by matching status and assay methods. Our findings suggest that a deficiency in circulating total tocopherols might be associated with higher coronary artery disease risk. Whereas circulating α-tocopherol alone could not protect us from developing coronary artery disease. Further prospective studies were warranted to confirm our findings. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aortic stiffness and the balance between cardiac oxygen supply and demand: the Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Guelen, Ilja; Mattace-Raso, Francesco Us; van Popele, Nicole M; Westerhof, Berend E; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline Cm; Bos, Willem Jan W

2008-06-01

Aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether aortic stiffness, estimated as aortic pulse wave velocity, is associated with decreased perfusion pressure estimated as the cardiac oxygen supply potential. Aortic stiffness and aortic pressure waves, reconstructed from finger blood pressure waves, were obtained in 2490 older adults within the framework of the Rotterdam Study, a large population-based study. Cardiac oxygen supply and demand were estimated using pulse wave analysis techniques, and related to aortic stiffness by linear regression analyses after adjustment for age, sex, mean arterial pressure and heart rate. Cardiac oxygen demand, estimated as the Systolic Pressure Time Index and the Rate Pressure Product, increased with increasing aortic stiffness [0.27 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: 0.21; 0.34)] and [42.2 mmHg/min (95% confidence interval: 34.1; 50.3)], respectively. Cardiac oxygen supply potential estimated as the Diastolic Pressure Time Index decreased [-0.70 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: -0.86; -0.54)] with aortic stiffening. Accordingly, the supply/demand ratio Diastolic Pressure Time Index/Systolic Pressure Time Index -1.11 (95% confidence interval: -0.14; -0.009) decreased with increasing aortic stiffness. Aortic stiffness is associated with estimates of increased cardiac oxygen demand and a decreased cardiac oxygen supply potential. These results may offer additional explanation for the relation between aortic stiffness and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Traffic-related air pollution: Exposure and health effects in Copenhagen street cleaners and cemetery workers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raaschou-Nielsen, O.; Nielsen, M.L.; Gehl, J.

This questionaire-based study found a significantly higher prevalence of chronic bronchitis, asthma, and several other symptoms in 116 Copenhagen street cleaners who were exposed to traffic-related air pollution at levels that were slightly lower than the 1987 World Health Organization-recommended threshold values, compared with 115 Copenhagen cemetery workers exposed to lower pollution levels. Logistic regression analysis, controlling for age and smoking, was conducted, and odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to be 2.5 for chronic bronchitis (95% confidence interval = 1.2-5.1), 2.3 for asthma (95% confidence interval = 1.0-5.1), and 1.8-7.9 for other symptoms (95% confidence interval =more » 1.0-28.2). Except for exposure to air pollution, the two groups were comparable, i.e., they had similar terms of employment and working conditions. the exposure ranges during an 8-h work day, averaged from readings taken at five monitored street positions, were: 41-257 ppb nitric oxide (1-h max: 865 ppb); 23-43 ppb nitrogen dioxide (1-h max: 208 ppb); 1.0-4.3 ppm carbon monoxide (8-h max: 7.1 ppm); 14-28 ppb sulfur dioxide (1-h max; 112 ppb); and 10-38 ppb ozone (1-h max: 72 ppb). 33 refs., 7 tabs.« less

Association of Urinary Calcium Excretion with Serum Calcium and Vitamin D Levels

PubMed Central

Rathod, Anita; Bonny, Olivier; Guessous, Idris; Suter, Paolo M.; Conen, David; Erne, Paul; Binet, Isabelle; Gabutti, Luca; Gallino, Augusto; Muggli, Franco; Hayoz, Daniel; Péchère-Bertschi, Antoinette; Paccaud, Fred

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Population-based data on urinary calcium excretion are scarce. The association of serum calcium and circulating levels of vitamin D [25(OH)D2 or D3] with urinary calcium excretion in men and women from a population-based study was explored. Design, settings, participants, & measurements Multivariable linear regression was used to explore factors associated with square root–transformed 24-hour urinary calcium excretion (milligrams per 24 hours) taken as the dependent variable with a focus on month-specific vitamin D tertiles and serum calcium in the Swiss Survey on Salt Study. Results In total, 624 men and 669 women were studied with mean ages of 49.2 and 47.0 years, respectively (age range=15–95 years). Mean urinary calcium excretion was higher in men than in women (183.05 versus 144.60 mg/24 h; P<0.001). In adjusted models, the association (95% confidence interval) of square root urinary calcium excretion with protein–corrected serum calcium was 1.78 (95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 2.34) mg/24 h per milligram per deciliter in women and 0.59 (95% confidence interval, −0.11 to 1.29) mg/24 h per milligram per deciliter in men. Men in the third 25(OH)D3 tertile had higher square root urinary calcium excretion than men in the first tertile (0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 1.63 mg/24 h per nanogram per milliliter), and the corresponding association was 0.32 (95% confidence interval, −0.22 to 0.85) mg/24 h per nanogram per milliliter in women. These sex differences were more marked under conditions of high urinary sodium or urea excretions. Conclusions There was a positive association of serum calcium with urinary calcium excretion in women but not men. Vitamin 25(OH)D3 was associated with urinary calcium excretion in men but not women. These results suggest important sex differences in the hormonal and dietary control of urinary calcium excretion. PMID:25518946

Thyroid cancer incidence among Asian immigrants to Ontario, Canada: A population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Shah, Baiju R; Griffiths, Rebecca; Hall, Stephen F

2017-09-01

The highest rates of thyroid cancer are observed in Pacific Island nations as well as Australia and Asian countries bordering the Pacific. The objective of this study was to determine the risk for thyroid cancer among immigrants to Canada from Southeast and East Asia compared with immigrants from other regions and nonimmigrants. This was a population-based, longitudinal cohort study using health care administrative data to examine all residents of Ontario without pre-existing thyroid cancer. Individuals were followed from January 1997 or 5 years after they became eligible for health care coverage in Ontario, whichever came later. Patients were followed until March 2015 for incident-differentiated thyroid cancer, and then for recurrence. The study followed 14,659,733 individuals for a median of 17 years. Thyroid cancer incidence was 43.8 cases per 100,000 person-years among Southeast Asian immigrants, 28.6 cases per 100,000 person-years among East Asian immigrants, 21.5 cases per 100,000 person-years among other immigrants, and 14.5 cases per 100,000 person-years among nonimmigrants. Incidence was highest among immigrants from the Philippines (52.7 cases per 100,000 person-years), South Korea (33.5 cases per 100,000 person-years), and China (30.0 cases per 100,000 person-years). Adjusted hazard ratios for thyroid cancer compared with nonimmigrants were 2.66 (95% confidence interval, 2.48-2.84) for Southeast Asian immigrants, 1.87 (95% confidence interval, 1.75-2.00) for East Asian immigrants, and 1.51 (95% confidence interval, 1.45-1.57) for other immigrants. Immigrants were more likely to have papillary histology and stage I cancer. East Asian immigrants, but not Southeast Asian immigrants, had a lower risk of recurrence (hazard ratio, 0.73 [95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.94] and 1.01 [95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.26], respectively). Immigrants from Southeast and East Asia had markedly higher thyroid cancer incidence than nonimmigrants. At particularly elevated risk were immigrants from the Philippines, South Korea, and China. Cancer 2017;123:3320-5. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Asymptotic confidence intervals for the Pearson correlation via skewness and kurtosis.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Li, Jiexiang; Nash, Thomas

2018-02-01

When bivariate normality is violated, the default confidence interval of the Pearson correlation can be inaccurate. Two new methods were developed based on the asymptotic sampling distribution of Fisher's z' under the general case where bivariate normality need not be assumed. In Monte Carlo simulations, the most successful of these methods relied on the (Vale & Maurelli, 1983, Psychometrika, 48, 465) family to approximate a distribution via the marginal skewness and kurtosis of the sample data. In Simulation 1, this method provided more accurate confidence intervals of the correlation in non-normal data, at least as compared to no adjustment of the Fisher z' interval, or to adjustment via the sample joint moments. In Simulation 2, this approximate distribution method performed favourably relative to common non-parametric bootstrap methods, but its performance was mixed relative to an observed imposed bootstrap and two other robust methods (PM1 and HC4). No method was completely satisfactory. An advantage of the approximate distribution method, though, is that it can be implemented even without access to raw data if sample skewness and kurtosis are reported, making the method particularly useful for meta-analysis. Supporting information includes R code. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Pancreatic β-Cell Function and Prognosis of Nondiabetic Patients With Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Pan, Yuesong; Chen, Weiqi; Jing, Jing; Zheng, Huaguang; Jia, Qian; Li, Hao; Zhao, Xingquan; Liu, Liping; Wang, Yongjun; He, Yan; Wang, Yilong

2017-11-01

Pancreatic β-cell dysfunction is an important factor in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study aimed to estimate the association between β-cell dysfunction and prognosis of nondiabetic patients with ischemic stroke. Patients with ischemic stroke without a history of diabetes mellitus in the ACROSS-China (Abnormal Glucose Regulation in Patients with Acute Stroke across China) registry were included. Disposition index was estimated as computer-based model of homeostatic model assessment 2-β%/homeostatic model assessment 2-insulin resistance based on fasting C-peptide level. Outcomes included stroke recurrence, all-cause death, and dependency (modified Rankin Scale, 3-5) at 12 months after onset. Among 1171 patients, 37.2% were women with a mean age of 62.4 years. At 12 months, 167 (14.8%) patients had recurrent stroke, 110 (9.4%) died, and 184 (16.0%) had a dependency. The first quartile of the disposition index was associated with an increased risk of stroke recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.57; 95% confidence interval, 2.13-5.99) and dependency (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-4.38); both the first and second quartiles of the disposition index were associated with an increased risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.09; 95% confidence interval, 2.51-10.33; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-5.03) compared with the fourth quartile. Using a multivariable regression model with restricted cubic spline, we observed an L-shaped association between the disposition index and the risk of each end point. In this large-scale registry, β-cell dysfunction was associated with an increased risk of 12-month poor prognosis in nondiabetic patients with ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk of Psoriasis Following Terbinafine or Itraconazole Treatment for Onychomycosis: A Population-Based Case-Control Comparative Study.

PubMed

Chiu, Hsien-Yi; Chang, Wei-Lun; Tsai, Tsen-Fang; Tsai, Yi-Wen; Shiu, Ming-Neng

2018-03-01

Several case studies have reported an association between antifungal drug use and psoriasis risk. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between terbinafine/itraconazole exposure and psoriasis incidence. Among patients with onychomycosis in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, 3831 incident psoriasis cases were identified during 2004-2010 and compared with 3831 age- and sex-matched controls with the same look-back period. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used for the analysis. The psoriasis cases were significantly more likely than matched controls to have used terbinafine or itraconazole (59.85 vs. 42.70%, respectively; p < 0.0001). After adjusting for potential confounders and cumulative duration of antifungal drug prescription, terbinafine/itraconazole use was associated with an increased psoriasis risk (adjusted odds ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.54). The association was stronger for more recent drug exposure (adjusted odds ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.25-3.90 for ≤ 90 days before the sampling date; adjusted odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.89-1.22 for > 360 days). In a comparison of patients receiving terbinafine or itraconazole only, psoriasis risk was higher for itraconazole (adjusted odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.40). This large population-based case-control analysis showed that exposure to terbinafine or itraconazole is associated with an increased risk of incident psoriasis. The finding of an increased psoriasis risk for antifungal drug users, particularly for itraconazole, deserves attention in clinical practice although further prospective studies are necessary to confirm our findings and clarify the biological mechanisms that underlie these associations.

Individual and System Contributions to Race and Sex Disparities in Thrombolysis Use for Stroke Patients in the United States.

PubMed

Faigle, Roland; Urrutia, Victor C; Cooper, Lisa A; Gottesman, Rebecca F

2017-04-01

Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) is underutilized in ethnic minorities and women. To disentangle individual and system-based factors determining disparities in IVT use, we investigated race/sex differences in IVT utilization among hospitals serving varying proportions of minority patients. Ischemic stroke admissions were identified from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample between 2007 and 2011. Hospitals were categorized based on the percentage of minority patients admitted with stroke (<25% minority patients [white hospitals], 25% to 50% minority patients [mixed hospitals], or >50% minority patients [minority hospitals]). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between race/sex and IVT use within and between the different hospital strata. Among 337 201 stroke admissions, white men had the highest odds of IVT among all race/sex groups in any hospital strata, and the odds of IVT for white men did not differ by hospital strata. For white women and minority men, the odds of IVT were significantly lower in minority hospitals compared with white hospitals (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97, for white women; and odds ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.99, for minority men). Race disparities in IVT use among women were observed in white hospitals (odds ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.99, in minority compared with white women), but not in minority hospitals (odds ratio, 0.94, 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.09). Sex disparities in IVT use were observed among whites but not among minorities. Minority men and white women have significantly lower odds of IVT in minority hospitals compared with white hospitals. IVT use in white men does not differ by hospital strata. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Two-year population-based molecular epidemiological study of tuberculosis transmission in the metropolitan area of Milan, Italy.

PubMed

Moro, M L; Salamina, G; Gori, A; Penati, V; Sacchetti, R; Mezzetti, F; Infuso, A; Sodano, L

2002-02-01

A 2-year, population-based, molecular epidemiological study was conducted in Milan, Italy, to determine the proportion of tuberculosis (TB) cases attributable to recent transmission. All strains were typed by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis; clustering was considered indicative of recent transmission. Of the 581 cases, 239 (41.1%) belonged to clusters that consisted of 2 to 11 patients; 28.1% were attributable to recent transmission (number of clustered patients minus 1). Clustering was associated with multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains (74.2% of cases), AIDS (60.2%), and a history of incarceration (67.4%). The frequency of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis was 5.3% overall (15.4% among AIDS patients). Among AIDS patients, infection with a resistant strain was independently associated with clustering (odds ratio, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.163), while among non-AIDS patients, three factors were associated with clustering: history of incarceration (odds ratio, 2.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-2.92), age <30 years (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.94), and native-born Italian nationality (odds ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.92). Of the 118 patients who belonged to either the smallest or the largest cluster, 19 (16.1%) reported an epidemiological link with another study patient. The results of this study highlight the need for control programs that focus on selected high-risk groups consisting primarily of HIV-infected individuals and persons with social and lifestyle risks for TB. These programs should be aimed at reducing the probability of transmission of drug-resistant TB through early identification of cases and provision of effective treatment until the individual is cured.

Treatment selection in a randomized clinical trial via covariate-specific treatment effect curves.

PubMed

Ma, Yunbei; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

2017-02-01

For time-to-event data in a randomized clinical trial, we proposed two new methods for selecting an optimal treatment for a patient based on the covariate-specific treatment effect curve, which is used to represent the clinical utility of a predictive biomarker. To select an optimal treatment for a patient with a specific biomarker value, we proposed pointwise confidence intervals for each covariate-specific treatment effect curve and the difference between covariate-specific treatment effect curves of two treatments. Furthermore, to select an optimal treatment for a future biomarker-defined subpopulation of patients, we proposed confidence bands for each covariate-specific treatment effect curve and the difference between each pair of covariate-specific treatment effect curve over a fixed interval of biomarker values. We constructed the confidence bands based on a resampling technique. We also conducted simulation studies to evaluate finite-sample properties of the proposed estimation methods. Finally, we illustrated the application of the proposed method in a real-world data set.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire's internal consistency was moderate (Cronbach's alpha = 0.56). The pilot-phase shows promising results concerning acceptability and feasibility. Pilot randomised controlled trial results indicate that the patient information is well understood and that knowledge gain on confidence intervals can be assessed with a set of six questions. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00008561 . Registered 8th of June 2015.

Ethnic Differences in Incidence and Outcomes of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Banh, Tonny H M; Hussain-Shamsy, Neesha; Patel, Viral; Vasilevska-Ristovska, Jovanka; Borges, Karlota; Sibbald, Cathryn; Lipszyc, Deborah; Brooke, Josefina; Geary, Denis; Langlois, Valerie; Reddon, Michele; Pearl, Rachel; Levin, Leo; Piekut, Monica; Licht, Christoph P B; Radhakrishnan, Seetha; Aitken-Menezes, Kimberly; Harvey, Elizabeth; Hebert, Diane; Piscione, Tino D; Parekh, Rulan S

2016-10-07

Ethnic differences in outcomes among children with nephrotic syndrome are unknown. We conducted a longitudinal study at a single regional pediatric center comparing ethnic differences in incidence from 2001 to 2011 census data and longitudinal outcomes, including relapse rates, time to first relapse, frequently relapsing disease, and use of cyclophosphamide. Among 711 children, 24% were European, 33% were South Asian, 10% were East/Southeast Asian, and 33% were of other origins. Over 10 years, the overall incidence increased from 1.99/100,000 to 4.71/100,000 among children ages 1-18 years old. In 2011, South Asians had a higher incidence rate ratio of 6.61 (95% confidence interval, 3.16 to 15.1) compared with Europeans. East/Southeast Asians had a similar incidence rate ratio (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 2.94) to Europeans. We determined outcomes in 455 children from the three largest ethnic groups with steroid-sensitive disease over a median of 4 years. South Asian and East/Southeast Asian children had significantly lower odds of frequently relapsing disease at 12 months (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.77; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.51), fewer subsequent relapses (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.81; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.91), lower risk of a first relapse (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.83; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.68), and lower use of cyclophosphamide (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 1.28; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.71) compared with European children. Despite the higher incidence among South Asians, South and East/Southeast Asian children have significantly less complicated clinical outcomes compared with Europeans. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

Impact of Prior Platinum-Based Therapy on Patients Receiving Salvage Systemic Treatment for Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma.

PubMed

Sonpavde, G; Pond, G R; Di Lorenzo, G; Buonerba, C; Rozzi, A; Lanzetta, G; Necchi, A; Giannatempo, P; Raggi, D; Matsumoto, K; Choueiri, T K; Mullane, S; Niegisch, G; Albers, P; Lee, J L; Kitamura, H; Kume, H; Bellmunt, J

2016-12-01

Trials of salvage therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma have required prior platinum-based therapy. This practice requires scrutiny because non-platinum-based first-line therapy may be offered to cisplatin-ineligible patients. Data of patients receiving salvage systemic chemotherapy were collected. Data on prior first-line platinum exposure were required in addition to treatment-free interval, hemoglobin, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, albumin, and liver metastasis status. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate their association with overall survival (OS) after accounting for salvage single-agent or combination chemotherapy. Data were obtained from 455 patients previously exposed to platinum-based therapy and 37 not exposed to platinum. In the group exposed to prior platinum therapy, salvage therapy consisted of a single-agent taxane (n = 184) or a taxane-containing combination chemotherapy (n = 271). In the group not exposed to prior platinum therapy, salvage therapy consisted of taxane or vinflunine (n = 20), 5-fluorouracil (n = 1), taxane-containing combination chemotherapy (n = 12), carboplatin-based combinations (n = 2), and cisplatin-based combinations (n = 2). The median OS for the prior platinum therapy group was 7.8 months (95% confidence interval, 7.0, 8.1), and for the group that had not received prior platinum therapy was 9.0 months (95% confidence interval, 6.0, 11.0; P = .50). In the multivariable analysis, prior platinum therapy versus no prior platinum exposure did not confer an independent impact on OS (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.75, 1.64; P = .62). Prior platinum- versus non-platinum-based chemotherapy did not have a prognostic impact on OS after accounting for major prognostic factors in patients receiving salvage systemic chemotherapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma. Lack of prior platinum therapy should not disqualify patients from inclusion onto trials of salvage therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The relation between amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and inorganic selenium in drinking water: a population-based case-control study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A community in northern Italy was previously reported to have an excess incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis among residents exposed to high levels of inorganic selenium in their drinking water. Methods To assess the extent to which such association persisted in the decade following its initial observation, we conducted a population-based case-control study encompassing forty-one newly-diagnosed cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and eighty-two age- and sex-matched controls. We measured long-term intake of inorganic selenium along with other potentially neurotoxic trace elements. Results We found that consumption of drinking water containing ≥ 1 μg/l of inorganic selenium was associated with a relative risk for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis of 5.4 (95% confidence interval 1.1-26) after adjustment for confounding factors. Greater amounts of cumulative inorganic selenium intake were associated with progressively increasing effects, with a relative risk of 2.1 (95% confidence interval 0.5-9.1) for intermediate levels of cumulative intake and 6.4 (95% confidence interval 1.3-31) for high intake. Conclusion Based on these results, coupled with other epidemiologic data and with findings from animal studies that show specific toxicity of the trace element on motor neurons, we hypothesize that dietary intake of inorganic selenium through drinking water increases the risk for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. PMID:21134276

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy: Impact on Prices, Spending, and Surgical Complications.

PubMed

Robinson, James C; Brown, Timothy T; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J

2015-09-16

Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, -24.9% to -9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, -29.3% to -2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy

PubMed Central

Robinson, James C.; Brown, Timothy T.; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Background: Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. Methods: We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. Results: By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, −24.9% to −9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, −29.3% to −2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Conclusions: Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. Clinical Relevance: This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. PMID:26378263

Invasive adenocarcinoma with bronchoalveolar features: a population-based evaluation of the extent of resection in bronchoalveolar cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Whitson, Bryan A; Groth, Shawn S; Andrade, Rafael S; Mitiek, Mohi O; Maddaus, Michael A; D'Cunha, Jonathan

2012-03-01

We used a population-based data set to assess the association between the extent of pulmonary resection for bronchoalveolar carcinoma and survival. The reports thus far have been limited to small, institutional series. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1988-2007), we identified patients with bronchoalveolar carcinoma who had undergone wedge resection, segmentectomy, or lobectomy. The bronchoalveolar carcinoma histologic findings were mucinous, nonmucinous, mixed, not otherwise specified, and alveolar carcinoma. To adjust for potential confounders, we used a Cox proportional hazards regression model. A total of 6810 patients met the inclusion criteria. Compared with the sublobar resections (wedge resections and segmentectomies), lobectomy conferred superior 5-year overall (59.5% vs 43.9%) and cancer-specific (67.1% vs 53.1%) survival (P < .0001). After adjusting for potential confounding patient and tumor characteristics, we found that patients who underwent an anatomic resection had significantly better overall (segmentectomy: hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.81; lobectomy: hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.57) and cancer-specific (segmentectomy: hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.75; lobectomy: hazard ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-0.53) survival compared with patients who underwent wedge resection. Additionally, gender, race, tumor size, and degree of tumor de-differentiation were negative prognostic factors. Our results were unchanged when we limited our analysis to early-stage disease. Using a population-based data set, we found that anatomic resections for bronchoalveolar carcinoma conferred superior overall and cancer-specific survival rates compared with wedge resection. Bronchoalveolar carcinoma's propensity for intraparenchymal spread might be the underlying biologic basis of our observation of improved survival after anatomic resection. Copyright © 2012 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

PubMed

Cochrane, Shannon K; Chen, Shyh-Huei; Fitzgerald, Jodi D; Dodson, John A; Fielding, Roger A; King, Abby C; McDermott, Mary M; Manini, Todd M; Marsh, Anthony P; Newman, Anne B; Pahor, Marco; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Ambrosius, Walter T; Buford, Thomas W

2017-12-02

Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500 steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P =0.001). At baseline, every 30 minutes spent performing activities ≥500 counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [ P =0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24 months), both the number of steps per day (per 500 steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [ P =0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500 counts per minute (per 30 minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [ P =0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score >10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Generalized Bootstrap Method for Assessment of Uncertainty in Semivariogram Inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.; Pardo-Iguzquiza, E.

2011-01-01

The semivariogram and its related function, the covariance, play a central role in classical geostatistics for modeling the average continuity of spatially correlated attributes. Whereas all methods are formulated in terms of the true semivariogram, in practice what can be used are estimated semivariograms and models based on samples. A generalized form of the bootstrap method to properly model spatially correlated data is used to advance knowledge about the reliability of empirical semivariograms and semivariogram models based on a single sample. Among several methods available to generate spatially correlated resamples, we selected a method based on the LU decomposition and used several examples to illustrate the approach. The first one is a synthetic, isotropic, exhaustive sample following a normal distribution, the second example is also a synthetic but following a non-Gaussian random field, and a third empirical sample consists of actual raingauge measurements. Results show wider confidence intervals than those found previously by others with inadequate application of the bootstrap. Also, even for the Gaussian example, distributions for estimated semivariogram values and model parameters are positively skewed. In this sense, bootstrap percentile confidence intervals, which are not centered around the empirical semivariogram and do not require distributional assumptions for its construction, provide an achieved coverage similar to the nominal coverage. The latter cannot be achieved by symmetrical confidence intervals based on the standard error, regardless if the standard error is estimated from a parametric equation or from bootstrap. ?? 2010 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences.

A new framework of statistical inferences based on the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in an incomplete contingency table.

PubMed

Tian, Guo-Liang; Li, Hui-Qiong

2017-08-01

Some existing confidence interval methods and hypothesis testing methods in the analysis of a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins entirely depend on an underlying assumption that the sampling distribution of the observed counts is a product of independent multinomial/binomial distributions for complete and incomplete counts. However, it can be shown that this independency assumption is incorrect and can result in unreliable conclusions because of the under-estimation of the uncertainty. Therefore, the first objective of this paper is to derive the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins. The second objective is to provide a new framework for analyzing incomplete contingency tables based on the derived joint sampling distribution of the observed counts by developing a Fisher scoring algorithm to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of interest, the bootstrap confidence interval methods, and the bootstrap testing hypothesis methods. We compare the differences between the valid sampling distribution and the sampling distribution under the independency assumption. Simulation studies showed that average/expected confidence-interval widths of parameters based on the sampling distribution under the independency assumption are shorter than those based on the new sampling distribution, yielding unrealistic results. A real data set is analyzed to illustrate the application of the new sampling distribution for incomplete contingency tables and the analysis results again confirm the conclusions obtained from the simulation studies.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Singer, Marc A; Nelson, Richard L

2002-12-01

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries is an appealing management option; however, uncertainty about its safety persists. This study was conducted to compare the morbidity and mortality of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries by use of a meta-analysis of randomized, prospective trials. We searched for prospective, randomized trials in MEDLINE (1966 to November 2001), the Cochrane Library, and EMBase using the terms colon, penetrating, injury, colostomy, prospective, and randomized. Studies were included if they were randomized, controlled trials that compared the outcomes of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries. Five studies were included. Reviewers performed data extraction independently. Outcomes evaluated from each trial included mortality, total complications, infectious complications, intra-abdominal infections, wound complications, penetrating abdominal trauma index, and length of stay. Peto odds ratios for combined effect were calculated with a 95 percent confidence interval for each outcome. Heterogeneity was also assessed for each outcome. The penetrating abdominal trauma index of included subjects did not differ significantly between studies. Mortality was not significantly different between groups (odds ratio, 1.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51-5.66). However, total complications (odds ratio, 0.28; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.18-0.42), total infectious complications (odds ratio, 0.41; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.27-0.63), abdominal infections including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.59; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.38-0.94), abdominal infections excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.52; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.31-0.86), wound complications including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.55; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.34-0.89), and wound complications excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.25-0.76) all significantly favored primary repair. Meta-analysis of currently published randomized, controlled trials favors primary repair over fecal diversion for penetrating colon injuries.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus FC; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-01-01

Objective There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. Design A retrospective, cohort study. Setting Scotland. Participants 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population’s risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Results Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73–86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56–84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136–169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56–82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120–175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39–74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18–53) was better than the reference population. Conclusions Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. PMID:26152675

Diagnostic accuracy of the Amsler grid and the preferential hyperacuity perimetry in the screening of patients with age-related macular degeneration: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Faes, L; Bodmer, N S; Bachmann, L M; Thiel, M A; Schmid, M K

2014-07-01

To clarify the screening potential of the Amsler grid and preferential hyperacuity perimetry (PHP) in detecting or ruling out wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Medline, Scopus and Web of Science (by citation of reference) were searched. Checking of reference lists of review articles and of included articles complemented electronic searches. Papers were selected, assessed, and extracted in duplicate. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Twelve included studies enrolled 903 patients and allowed constructing 27 two-by-two tables. Twelve tables reported on the Amsler grid and its modifications, twelve tables reported on the PHP, one table assessed the MCPT and two tables assessed the M-charts. All but two studies had a case-control design. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the Amsler grid was 0.78 (95% confidence intervals; 0.64-0.87), and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (95% confidence intervals; 0.91-0.99). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.1 (95% confidence intervals; 8.4-64.0) and 0.23 (95% confidence intervals; 0.14-0.39), respectively. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the PHP was 0.85 (95% confidence intervals; 0.80-0.89), and specificity was 0.87 (95% confidence intervals; 0.82-0.91). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.7 (95% confidence intervals; 4.6-9.8) and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals; 0.13-0.23). No pooling was possible for MCPT and M-charts. Results from small preliminary studies show promising test performance characteristics both for the Amsler grid and PHP to rule out wet AMD in the screening setting. To what extent these findings can be transferred to a real clinic practice still needs to be established.

Ensemble-Based Source Apportionment of Fine Particulate Matter and Emergency Department Visits for Pediatric Asthma

PubMed Central

Gass, Katherine; Balachandran, Sivaraman; Chang, Howard H.; Russell, Armistead G.; Strickland, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Epidemiologic studies utilizing source apportionment (SA) of fine particulate matter have shown that particles from certain sources might be more detrimental to health than others; however, it is difficult to quantify the uncertainty associated with a given SA approach. In the present study, we examined associations between source contributions of fine particulate matter and emergency department visits for pediatric asthma in Atlanta, Georgia (2002–2010) using a novel ensemble-based SA technique. Six daily source contributions from 4 SA approaches were combined into an ensemble source contribution. To better account for exposure uncertainty, 10 source profiles were sampled from their posterior distributions, resulting in 10 time series with daily SA concentrations. For each of these time series, Poisson generalized linear models with varying lag structures were used to estimate the health associations for the 6 sources. The rate ratios for the source-specific health associations from the 10 imputed source contribution time series were combined, resulting in health associations with inflated confidence intervals to better account for exposure uncertainty. Adverse associations with pediatric asthma were observed for 8-day exposure to particles generated from diesel-fueled vehicles (rate ratio = 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.10) and gasoline-fueled vehicles (rate ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.17). PMID:25776011

Lung Cancer and Occupation in a Population-based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Consonni, Dario; De Matteis, Sara; Lubin, Jay H.; Wacholder, Sholom; Tucker, Margaret; Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Caporaso, Neil E.; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Landi, Maria Teresa

2010-01-01

The authors examined the relation between occupation and lung cancer in the large, population-based Environment And Genetics in Lung cancer Etiology (EAGLE) case-control study. In 2002–2005 in the Lombardy region of northern Italy, 2,100 incident lung cancer cases and 2,120 randomly selected population controls were enrolled. Lifetime occupational histories (industry and job title) were coded by using standard international classifications and were translated into occupations known (list A) or suspected (list B) to be associated with lung cancer. Smoking-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated with logistic regression. For men, an increased risk was found for list A (177 exposed cases and 100 controls; odds ratio = 1.74, 95% confidence interval: 1.27, 2.38) and most occupations therein. No overall excess was found for list B with the exception of filling station attendants and bus and truck drivers (men) and launderers and dry cleaners (women). The authors estimated that 4.9% (95% confidence interval: 2.0, 7.8) of lung cancers in men were attributable to occupation. Among those in other occupations, risk excesses were found for metal workers, barbers and hairdressers, and other motor vehicle drivers. These results indicate that past exposure to occupational carcinogens remains an important determinant of lung cancer occurrence. PMID:20047975

Evaluation of an Automatic Registration-Based Algorithm for Direct Measurement of Volume Change in Tumors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarkar, Saradwata; Johnson, Timothy D.; Ma, Bing

2012-07-01

Purpose: Assuming that early tumor volume change is a biomarker for response to therapy, accurate quantification of early volume changes could aid in adapting an individual patient's therapy and lead to shorter clinical trials. We investigated an image registration-based approach for tumor volume change quantification that may more reliably detect smaller changes that occur in shorter intervals than can be detected by existing algorithms. Methods and Materials: Variance and bias of the registration-based approach were evaluated using retrospective, in vivo, very-short-interval diffusion magnetic resonance imaging scans where true zero tumor volume change is unequivocally known and synthetic data, respectively. Themore » interval scans were nonlinearly registered using two similarity measures: mutual information (MI) and normalized cross-correlation (NCC). Results: The 95% confidence interval of the percentage volume change error was (-8.93% to 10.49%) for MI-based and (-7.69%, 8.83%) for NCC-based registrations. Linear mixed-effects models demonstrated that error in measuring volume change increased with increase in tumor volume and decreased with the increase in the tumor's normalized mutual information, even when NCC was the similarity measure being optimized during registration. The 95% confidence interval of the relative volume change error for the synthetic examinations with known changes over {+-}80% of reference tumor volume was (-3.02% to 3.86%). Statistically significant bias was not demonstrated. Conclusion: A low-noise, low-bias tumor volume change measurement algorithm using nonlinear registration is described. Errors in change measurement were a function of tumor volume and the normalized mutual information content of the tumor.« less

Mindfulness-based stress reduction for treating chronic headache: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Anheyer, Dennis; Leach, Matthew J; Klose, Petra; Dobos, Gustav; Cramer, Holger

2018-01-01

Background Mindfulness-based stress reduction/cognitive therapy are frequently used for pain-related conditions, but their effects on headache remain uncertain. This review aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of mindfulness-based stress reduction/cognitive therapy in reducing the symptoms of chronic headache. Data sources and study selection MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, CENTRAL, and PsychINFO were searched to 16 June 2017. Randomized controlled trials comparing mindfulness-based stress reduction/cognitive therapy with usual care or active comparators for migraine and/or tension-type headache, which assessed headache frequency, duration or intensity as a primary outcome, were eligible for inclusion. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Tool. Results Five randomized controlled trials (two on tension-type headache; one on migraine; two with mixed samples) with a total of 185 participants were included. Compared to usual care, mindfulness-based stress reduction/cognitive therapy did not improve headache frequency (three randomized controlled trials; standardized mean difference = 0.00; 95% confidence interval = -0.33,0.32) or headache duration (three randomized controlled trials; standardized mean difference = -0.08; 95% confidence interval = -1.03,0.87). Similarly, no significant difference between groups was found for pain intensity (five randomized controlled trials; standardized mean difference = -0.78; 95% confidence interval = -1.72,0.16). Conclusions Due to the low number, small scale and often high or unclear risk of bias of included randomized controlled trials, the results are imprecise; this may be consistent with either an important or negligible effect. Therefore, more rigorous trials with larger sample sizes are needed.

Customized versus population-based birth weight charts for the detection of neonatal growth and perinatal morbidity in a cross-sectional study of term neonates.

PubMed

Carberry, Angela E; Raynes-Greenow, Camille H; Turner, Robin M; Jeffery, Heather E

2013-10-15

Customized birth weight charts that incorporate maternal characteristics are now being adopted into clinical practice. However, there is controversy surrounding the value of these charts in the prediction of growth and perinatal outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the use of customized charts in predicting growth, defined by body fat percentage, and perinatal morbidity. A total of 581 term (≥37 weeks' gestation) neonates born in Sydney, Australia, in 2010 were included. Body fat percentage measurements were taken by using air displacement plethysmography. Objective composite measurements of perinatal morbidity were used to identify neonates who had poor outcomes; these data were extracted from medical records. The value of customized charts was assessed by calculating positive predictive values, negative predictive values, and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Customized versus population-based charts did not improve the prediction of either low body fat percentage (59% vs. 66% positive predictive value and 87% vs. 89% negative predictive value, respectively) or high body fat percentage (48% vs. 53% positive predictive value and 90% vs. 89% negative predictive value, respectively). Customized charts were not better than population-based charts at predicting perinatal morbidity (for customized charts, odds ratio = 1.02, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.04; for population-based charts, odds ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.05) per percentile decrease in birth weight. Customized birth weight charts do not provide significant improvements over population-based charts in predicting neonatal growth and morbidity.

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

Assessment of the Thematic Accuracy of Land Cover Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höhle, J.

2015-08-01

Several land cover maps are generated from aerial imagery and assessed by different approaches. The test site is an urban area in Europe for which six classes (`building', `hedge and bush', `grass', `road and parking lot', `tree', `wall and car port') had to be derived. Two classification methods were applied (`Decision Tree' and `Support Vector Machine') using only two attributes (height above ground and normalized difference vegetation index) which both are derived from the images. The assessment of the thematic accuracy applied a stratified design and was based on accuracy measures such as user's and producer's accuracy, and kappa coefficient. In addition, confidence intervals were computed for several accuracy measures. The achieved accuracies and confidence intervals are thoroughly analysed and recommendations are derived from the gained experiences. Reliable reference values are obtained using stereovision, false-colour image pairs, and positioning to the checkpoints with 3D coordinates. The influence of the training areas on the results is studied. Cross validation has been tested with a few reference points in order to derive approximate accuracy measures. The two classification methods perform equally for five classes. Trees are classified with a much better accuracy and a smaller confidence interval by means of the decision tree method. Buildings are classified by both methods with an accuracy of 99% (95% CI: 95%-100%) using independent 3D checkpoints. The average width of the confidence interval of six classes was 14% of the user's accuracy.

Gestational diabetes mellitus and pregnancy outcomes among Chinese and South Asian women in Canada.

PubMed

Mukerji, Geetha; Chiu, Maria; Shah, Baiju R

2013-02-01

To determine the association between Chinese or South Asian ethnicity and adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes for women with gestational diabetes compared to the general population. A cohort study was conducted using population-based health care databases in Ontario, Canada. All 35,577 women aged 15-49 with gestational diabetes who had live births between April 2002 and March 2011 were identified. Their delivery hospitalization records and the birth records of their neonates were examined to identify adverse neonatal outcomes and adverse maternal outcomes. Compared to infants of mothers from the general population (55.5%), infants of Chinese mothers had a lower risk of an adverse outcome at delivery (42.9%, adjusted odds ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.68), whereas infants of South Asian mothers had a higher risk (58.9%, adjusted odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.23). Chinese women also had a lower risk of adverse maternal outcomes (32.4%, adjusted odds ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.54-0.63) compared to general population women (41.2%), whereas the risk for South Asian women was not different (39.4%, adjusted odds ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.02) from that of general population women. The risk of complications of gestational diabetes differs significantly between Chinese and South Asian patients and the general population in Ontario. Tailored interventions for gestational diabetes management may be required to improve pregnancy outcomes in high-risk ethnic groups.

Patching vs Atropine to Treat Amblyopia in Children Aged 7 to 12 Years: A Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Objective To compare patching with atropine eye drops in the treatment of moderate amblyopia (20/40 -20/100) in children age 7 to 12 years. Methods In a randomized multi-center clinical trial, 193 children with amblyopia were randomized to weekend atropine or patching 2 hours per day of the sound eye. Main Outcome Measure Masked assessment of amblyopic eye visual acuity using the EETDRS testing protocol at 17 weeks. Results At 17 weeks, visual acuity had improved from baseline by an average of 7.6 letters in the atropine group and 8.6 letters in the patching group. The mean difference (patching minus atropine) between groups adjusted for baseline acuity was 1.2 letters (ends of complementary 1-sided 95% confidence intervals for noninferiority = -0.7 and +3.1 letters). Based on the confidence intervals this difference met the pre-specified definition for equivalence (ends of confidence intervals <5 letters). Amblyopic eye visual acuity was 20/25 or better in 15 subjects (17%) in the atropine group and 20 subjects (24%) in the patching group (difference = 7%, 95% confidence interval = -3% to 17%). Conclusions Treatment with atropine or patching leads to similar degrees of improvement in 7 to 12 year old children with moderate amblyopia. About 1 in 5 achieves 20/25 or better visual acuity in the amblyopic eye. Application to Clinical Practice Treatment of older children with unilateral amblyopia. PMID:19064841

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium and the risk of stroke among men.

PubMed

Adebamowo, Sally N; Spiegelman, Donna; Flint, Alan J; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium have been inversely associated with the incidence of hypertension, a known risk factor for stroke. However, only a few studies have examined intakes of these cations in relation to risk of stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether high intake of magnesium, potassium, and calcium is associated with reduced stroke risk among men. We prospectively examined the associations between intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium from diet and supplements, and the risk of incident stroke among 42 669 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, aged 40 to 75 years and free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1986. We calculated the hazard ratio of total, ischemic, and haemorrhagic strokes by quintiles of each cation intake, and of a combined dietary score of all three cations, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. During 24 years of follow-up, 1547 total stroke events were documented. In multivariate analyses, the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile were 0·87 (95% confidence interval, 0·74-1·02; P, trend = 0·04) for dietary magnesium, 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·76-1·05; P, trend = 0·10) for dietary potassium, and 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-1·04; P, trend = 0·25) for dietary calcium intake. The relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·74 (95% confidence interval, 0·59-0·93; P, trend = 0·003) for supplemental magnesium, 0·66 (95% confidence interval, 0·50-0·86; P, trend = 0·002) for supplemental potassium, and 1·01 (95% confidence interval, 0·84-1·20; P, trend = 0·83) for supplemental calcium intake. For total intake (dietary and supplemental), the relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·83 (95% confidence interval, 0·70-0·99; P, trend = 0·04) for magnesium, 0·88 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-4; P, trend = 6) for potassium, and 3 (95% confidence interval, 79-09; P, trend = 84) for calcium. Men in the highest quintile for a combined dietary score of all three cations had a multivariate relative risk of 0·79 (95% confidence interval, 0·67-0·92; P, trend = 0·008) for total stroke, compared with those in the lowest. A diet rich in magnesium, potassium, and calcium may contribute to reduced risk of stroke among men. Because of significant collinearity, the independent contribution of each cation is difficult to define. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.99), and lower pain, assessed by the visual analog scale pain score (mean difference, -4.52 points, 95% confidence interval, -5.35 to 3.69) compared with the control group. The incidences of emergency cesarean delivery (1.6% vs 2.5%; relative risk, 0.63, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.70), transient bradycardia (11.8% vs 8.3%; relative risk, 1.42, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-2.80), nonreassuring fetal testing, excluding transient bradycardia, after external cephalic version (6.9% vs 7.4%; relative risk, 0.93, 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.64), and abruption placentae (0.4% vs 0.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.06-16.1) were similar. Administration of neuraxial analgesia significantly increases the success rate of external cephalic version among women with malpresentation at term or late preterm, which then significantly increases the incidence of vaginal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Add-On Antihypertensive Medications to Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Blockers in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study.

PubMed

Schroeder, Emily B; Chonchol, Michel; Shetterly, Susan M; Powers, J David; Adams, John L; Schmittdiel, Julie A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

2018-05-07

In individuals with diabetes, the comparative effectiveness of add-on antihypertensive medications added to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker on the risk of significant kidney events is unknown. We used an observational, multicenter cohort of 21,897 individuals with diabetes to compare individuals who added β -blockers, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, loop diuretics, or thiazide diuretics to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We examined the hazard of significant kidney events, cardiovascular events, and death using Cox proportional hazard models with propensity score weighting. The composite significant kidney event end point was defined as the first occurrence of a ≥30% decline in eGFR to an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplant. The composite cardiovascular event end point was defined as the first occurrence of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or congestive heart failure; coronary artery bypass grafting; or percutaneous coronary intervention, and it was only examined in those free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Over a maximum of 5 years, there were 4707 significant kidney events, 1498 deaths, and 818 cardiovascular events. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios for significant kidney events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.89), 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.78), and 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.41), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of mortality for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.44), 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.03), and 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 2.13), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of cardiovascular events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics compared with thiazide diuretics were 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 1.96), 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 1.39), and 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.27), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, calcium channel blockers were associated with a lower risk of significant kidney events and a similar risk of cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

The probability of being identified as an outlier with commonly used funnel plot control limits for the standardised mortality ratio.

PubMed

Seaton, Sarah E; Manktelow, Bradley N

2012-07-16

Emphasis is increasingly being placed on the monitoring of clinical outcomes for health care providers. Funnel plots have become an increasingly popular graphical methodology used to identify potential outliers. It is assumed that a provider only displaying expected random variation (i.e. 'in-control') will fall outside a control limit with a known probability. In reality, the discrete count nature of these data, and the differing methods, can lead to true probabilities quite different from the nominal value. This paper investigates the true probability of an 'in control' provider falling outside control limits for the Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR). The true probabilities of an 'in control' provider falling outside control limits for the SMR were calculated and compared for three commonly used limits: Wald confidence interval; 'exact' confidence interval; probability-based prediction interval. The probability of falling above the upper limit, or below the lower limit, often varied greatly from the nominal value. This was particularly apparent when there were a small number of expected events: for expected events ≤ 50 the median probability of an 'in-control' provider falling above the upper 95% limit was 0.0301 (Wald), 0.0121 ('exact'), 0.0201 (prediction). It is important to understand the properties and probability of being identified as an outlier by each of these different methods to aid the correct identification of poorly performing health care providers. The limits obtained using probability-based prediction limits have the most intuitive interpretation and their properties can be defined a priori. Funnel plot control limits for the SMR should not be based on confidence intervals.

Longitudinal study of changing psychological outcomes following the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires.

PubMed

Bryant, Richard A; Gibbs, Lisa; Gallagher, Hugh Colin; Pattison, Phillipa; Lusher, Dean; MacDougall, Colin; Harms, Louise; Block, Karen; Sinnott, Vikki; Ireton, Greg; Richardson, John; Forbes, David

2017-06-01

To map the changing prevalence and predictors of psychological outcomes in affected communities 5 years following the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria. Follow-up assessment of longitudinal cohort study in high, medium and non-affected communities in Victoria, Australia. Participants included 1017 respondents (Wave 1) interviewed via telephone and web-based survey between December 2011 and January 2013, and 735 (76.1%) eligible participants were retested between July and November 2014 (Wave 2). The survey included measures of fire-related and subsequent stressful events, probable posttraumatic stress disorder, major depressive episode, alcohol use and severe distress. There were reduced rates of fire-related posttraumatic stress disorder (8.7% vs 12.1%), general posttraumatic stress disorder (14.7% vs 18.2%), major depressive episode (9.0% vs 10.9%) and serious mental illness (5.4% vs 7.8%). Rates of resilience increased over time (81.8% vs 77.1%), and problem alcohol use remained high across Wave 1 (22.1%) and Wave 2 (21.4%). The most robust predictor of later development of fire-related posttraumatic stress disorder (odds ratio: 2.11; 95% confidence interval: [1.22, 3.65]), general posttraumatic stress disorder (odds ratio: 3.15; 95% confidence interval: [1.98, 5.02]), major depressive episode (odds ratio: 2.86; 95% confidence interval: [1.74, 4.70]), serious mental illness (odds ratio: 2.67; 95% confidence interval: [0.57, 1.72]) or diminished resilience (odds ratio: 2.01; 95% confidence interval: [1.32, 3.05]) was extent of recent life stressors. Although rates of mental health problems diminished over time, they remained higher than national levels. Findings suggest that policy-makers need to recognize that the mental health consequences of disasters can persist for many years after the event and need to allocate resources towards those who are most at risk as a result of substantive losses and ongoing life stressors.

Involving American Indians and medically underserved rural populations in cancer clinical trials.

PubMed

Guadagnolo, B Ashleigh; Petereit, Daniel G; Helbig, Petra; Koop, David; Kussman, Patricia; Fox Dunn, Emily; Patnaik, Asha

2009-12-01

To assess cancer clinical trial recruitment and reasons for nonaccrual among a rural, medically underserved population served by a community-based cancer care center. We prospectively tracked clinical trial enrollment incidence among all new patients presenting at the Rapid City Regional Cancer Care Institute. Evaluating physicians completed questionnaires for each patient regarding clinical trial enrollment status and primary reasons for nonenrollment. Patients who identified as American Indian were referred to a program where patients were assisted in navigating the medical system by trained, culturally competent staff. Between September 2006 and January 2008, 891 new cancer patients were evaluated. Seventy-eight patients (9%; 95% confidence intervals, 7-11%) were enrolled on a clinical treatment trial. For 73% (95% confidence intervals, 69-75%) of patients (646 of 891) lack of relevant protocol availability or protocol inclusion criteria restrictiveness was the reason for nonenrollment. Only 45 (5%; 95% confidence intervals, 4-7%) patients refused enrollment on a trial. Of the 78 enrolled on a trial, 6 (8%; 95% confidence intervals, 3-16%) were American Indian. Three additional American Indian patients were enrolled under a nontreatment cancer control trial, bringing the total percentage enrolled of the 94 American Indians who presented to the clinic to 10% (95% confidence intervals, 5-17%). Eligibility rates were unable to be calculated and cross validation of the number in the cohort via registries or ICD-9 codes was not performed. Clinical trial participation in this medically underserved population was low overall, but approximately 3-fold higher than reported national accrual rates. Lack of availability of protocols for common cancer sites as well as stringent protocol inclusion criteria were the primary obstacles to clinical trial enrollment. Targeted interventions using a Patient Navigation program were used to engage AI patients and may have resulted in higher clinical trial enrollment among this racial/ethnic group.

Involving American Indians and medically underserved rural populations in cancer clinical trials

PubMed Central

Guadagnolo, B Ashleigh; Petereit, Daniel G; Helbig, Petra; Koop, David; Kussman, Patricia; Dunn, Emily Fox; Patnaik, Asha

2010-01-01

Purpose To assess cancer clinical trial recruitment and reasons for nonaccrual among a rural, medically underserved population served by a community-based cancer care center. Methods We prospectively tracked clinical trial enrollment incidence among all new patients presenting at the Rapid City Regional Cancer Care Institute. Evaluating physicians completed questionnaires for each patient regarding clinical trial enrollment status and primary reasons for nonenrollment. Patients who identified as American Indian were referred to a program where patients were assisted in navigating the medical system by trained, culturally competent staff. Results Between September 2006 and January 2008, 891 new cancer patients were evaluated. Seventy-eight patients (9%; 95% confidence intervals, 7–11%) were enrolled on a clinical treatment trial. For 73% (95% confidence intervals, 69–75%) of patients (646 of 891) lack of relevant protocol availability or protocol inclusion criteria restrictiveness was the reason for nonenrollment. Only 45 (5%; 95% confidence intervals, 4–7%) patients refused enrollment on a trial. Of the 78 enrolled on a trial, 6 (8%; 95% confidence intervals, 3–16%) were American Indian. Three additional American Indian patients were enrolled under a nontreatment cancer control trial, bringing the total percentage enrolled of the 94 American Indians who presented to the clinic to 10% (95% confidence intervals, 5–17%). Limitations Eligibility rates were unable to be calculated and cross validation of the number in the cohort via registries or ICD-9 codes was not performed. Conclusion Clinical trial participation in this medically underserved population was low overall, but approximately 3-fold higher than reported national accrual rates. Lack of availability of protocols for common cancer sites as well as stringent protocol inclusion criteria were the primary obstacles to clinical trial enrollment. Targeted interventions using a Patient Navigation program were used to engage AI patients and may have resulted in higher clinical trial enrollment among this racial/ethnic group. PMID:19933720

Home care by general practitioners for cancer patients in the last 3 months of life: An epidemiological study of quality and associated factors

PubMed Central

Pivodic, Lara; Harding, Richard; Calanzani, Natalia; McCrone, Paul; Hall, Sue; Deliens, Luc; Higginson, Irene J; Gomes, Barbara

2016-01-01

Background: Stronger generalist end-of-life care at home for people with cancer is called for but the quality of end-of-life care delivered by general practitioners has been questioned. Aim: To determine the degree of and factors associated with bereaved relatives’ satisfaction with home end-of-life care delivered by general practitioners to cancer patients. Design: Population-based mortality followback survey. Setting/participants: Bereaved relatives of people who died of cancer in London, United Kingdom (identified from death registrations in 2009–2010), were invited to complete a postal questionnaire surveying the deceased’s final 3 months of life. Results: Questionnaires were completed for 596 decedents of whom 548 spent at least 1 day at home in the last 3 months of life. Of the respondents, 55% (95% confidence interval: 51%–59%) reported excellent/very good home care by general practitioners, compared with 78% (95% confidence interval: 74%–82%) for specialist palliative care providers and 68% (95% confidence interval: 64%–73%) for district/community/private nurses. The odds of high satisfaction (excellent/very good) with end-of-life care by general practitioners doubled if general practitioners made three or more compared with one or no home visits in the patient’s last 3 months of life (adjusted odds ratio: 2.54 (95% confidence interval: 1.52–4.24)) and halved if the patient died at hospital rather than at home (adjusted odds ratio: 0.55 (95% confidence interval: 0.31–0.998)). Conclusion: There is considerable room for improvement in the satisfaction with home care provided by general practitioners to terminally ill cancer patients. Ensuring an adequate offer of home visits by general practitioners may help to achieve this goal. PMID:26036688

Periodontal treatment during pregnancy and birth outcomes: a meta-analysis of randomised trials.

PubMed

George, Ajesh; Shamim, Simin; Johnson, Maree; Ajwani, Shilpi; Bhole, Sameer; Blinkhorn, Anthony; Ellis, Sharon; Andrews, Karen

2011-06-01

The objective of this review was to conduct a meta-analysis of all up-to-date randomised control trials to determine whether periodontal treatment during pregnancy has the potential of reducing preterm birth and low birth weight incidence. Bibliographic databases MEDLINE (1966-present), EMBASE (1980-present), CINAHL (1982-present) and the Cochrane library up to and including 2010 Issue 10 were searched. The reference list of included studies and reviews were also searched for additional literature. Eligible studies were, published and ongoing randomised control trials that compared pregnancy outcomes for pregnant women who received periodontal treatment during the prenatal period. Two of the investigators independently assessed the studies and then extracted and summarised data from eligible trials. Extracted data were entered into Review Manager software and analysed. A total of 5645 pregnant women participated in the 10 eligible trials. Meta-analysis found that periodontal treatment significantly lowered preterm birth (odd ratio 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.93; P = 0.02) and low birth weight (odd ratio 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.92; P = 0.02) rates while no significant difference was found for spontaneous abortion/stillbirth (odd ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-1.16; P = 0.17). Moderate heterogeneity was observed among the studies for preterm birth and low birth weight. Subgroup analysis showed significant effect of periodontal treatment in pregnant women with low rate of previous preterm birth/low birth weight (odd ratio 0.35; 95% confidence interval, 017-0.70; P = 0.003) and less severe periodontal disease (odd ratio 0.49; confidence interval, 028-0.87; P = 0.01) as defined by probing depth. The cumulative evidence suggests that periodontal treatment during pregnancy may reduce preterm birth and low birth weight incidence. However, these findings need to be further validated through larger more targeted randomised control trials. © 2011 The Authors. International Journal of Evidence-Based Healthcare © 2011 The Joanna Briggs Institute.

Water, sanitation and hygiene related risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth and Giardia duodenalis infections in rural communities in Timor-Leste.

PubMed

Campbell, Suzy J; Nery, Susana V; D'Este, Catherine A; Gray, Darren J; McCarthy, James S; Traub, Rebecca J; Andrews, Ross M; Llewellyn, Stacey; Vallely, Andrew J; Williams, Gail M; Amaral, Salvador; Clements, Archie C A

2016-11-01

There is little evidence on prevalence or risk factors for soil transmitted helminth infections in Timor-Leste. This study describes the epidemiology, water, sanitation and hygiene, and socioeconomic risk factors of STH and intestinal protozoa amongst communities in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste. As part of a cluster randomised controlled trial, a baseline cross-sectional survey was conducted across 18 villages, with data from six additional villages. Stool samples were assessed for soil transmitted helminth and protozoal infections using quantitative PCR (qPCR) and questionnaires administered to collect water, sanitation and hygiene and socioeconomic data. Risk factors for infection were assessed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression, stratified by age group (preschool, school-aged and adult). Overall, soil transmitted helminth prevalence was 69% (95% Confidence Interval 67-71%), with Necator americanus being most common (60%; 95% Confidence Interval 58-62%) followed by Ascaris spp. (24%; 95% Confidence Interval 23-26%). Ascaris-N. americanus co-infection was common (17%; 95% Confidence Interval 15%-18%). Giardia duodenalis was the main protozoan identified (13%; 95% Confidence Interval 11-14%). Baseline water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure and behaviours were poor. Although risk factors varied by age of participants and parasite species, risk factors for N. americanus infection included, generally, age in years, male sex, and socioeconomic quintile. Risk factors for Ascaris included age in years for children, and piped water to the yard for adults. In this first known assessment of community-based prevalence and associated risk factors in Timor-Leste, soil transmitted helminth infections were highly prevalent, indicating a need for soil transmitted helminth control. Few associations with water, sanitation and hygiene were evident, despite water, sanitation and hygiene being generally poor. In our water, sanitation and hygiene we will investigate implications of improving WASH on soil transmitted helminth infection in impoverished communities. Copyright © 2016 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maternal steroid therapy for fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ciardulli, Andrea; D'Antonio, Francesco; Magro-Malosso, Elena R; Manzoli, Lamberto; Anisman, Paul; Saccone, Gabriele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2018-03-07

To explore the effect of maternal fluorinated steroid therapy on fetuses affected by second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. Studies reporting the outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block diagnosed on prenatal ultrasound and treated with fluorinated steroids compared with those not treated were included. The primary outcome was the overall progression of congenital atrioventricular block to either continuous or intermittent third-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth. Meta-analyses of proportions using random effect model and meta-analyses using individual data random-effect logistic regression were used. Five studies (71 fetuses) were included. The progression rate to congenital atrioventricular block at birth in fetuses treated with steroids was 52% (95% confidence interval 23-79) and in fetuses not receiving steroid therapy 73% (95% confidence interval 39-94). The overall rate of regression to either first-degree, intermittent first-/second-degree or sinus rhythm in fetuses treated with steroids was 25% (95% confidence interval 12-41) compared with 23% (95% confidence interval 8-44) in those not treated. Stable (constant) second-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth was present in 11% (95% confidence interval 2-27) of cases in the treated group and in none of the newborns in the untreated group, whereas complete regression to sinus rhythm occurred in 21% (95% confidence interval 6-42) of fetuses receiving steroids vs. 9% (95% confidence interval 0-41) of those untreated. There is still limited evidence as to the benefit of administered fluorinated steroids in terms of affecting outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Active management of the third stage of labor with and without controlled cord traction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Du, Yongming; Ye, Man; Zheng, Feiyun

2014-07-01

To determine the specific effect of controlled cord traction in the third stage of labor in the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage. We searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science (inception to 30 October 2013). Randomized controlled trials comparing controlled cord traction with hands-off management in the third stage of labor were included. Five randomized controlled trials involving a total of 30 532 participants were eligible. No significant difference was found between controlled cord traction and hands-off management groups with respect to the incidence of severe postpartum hemorrhage (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77-1.08), need for blood transfusion (relative risk 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.33) or therapeutic uterotonics (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.01). However, controlled cord traction reduced the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in general (relative risk 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99; number-needed-to-treat 111, 95% confidence interval 61-666), as well manual removal of the placenta (relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.84) and duration of the third stage of labor (mean difference -3.20, 95% confidence interval -3.21 to -3.19). Controlled cord traction appears to reduce the risk of any postpartum hemorrhage in a general sense, as well as manual removal of the placenta and the duration of the third stage of labor. However, the reduction in the occurrence of severe postpartum hemorrhage, need for additional uterotonics and blood transfusion is not statistically significant. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors is associated with cancer-related death after resection.

PubMed

Roland, Christina L; Starker, Lee F; Kang, Y; Chatterjee, Deyali; Estrella, Jeannelyn; Rashid, Asif; Katz, Matthew H; Aloia, Thomas A; Lee, Jeffrey E; Dasari, Arvind; Yao, James C; Fleming, Jason B

2017-03-01

Gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors have frequent loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression, a known tumor suppressor. The impact of SMAD4 loss on gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors aggressiveness or cancer-related patient outcomes is not defined. We examined the expression of SMAD4 in resected gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors and its impact on oncologic outcomes. Patients who underwent complete curative operative resection of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were identified retrospectively (n = 38). Immunohistochemical staining for SMAD4 expression was scored by a blinded pathologist and correlated with clinicopathologic features and oncologic outcomes. Twenty-nine percent of the gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were SMAD4-negative and 71% SMAD4-positive. Median overall survival was 155 months (95% confidence interval, 102-208 months). Loss of SMAD4 was associated with both decreased median disease-free survival (28 months; 95% confidence interval, 16-40) months compared with 223 months (95% confidence interval, 3-443 months) for SMAD4-positive patients (P = .03) and decreased median disease-specific survival (SMAD4: 137 [95% confidence interval, 81-194] months versus SMAD4-positive: 204 [95% confidence interval, 143-264] months; P = .04). This translated into a decrease in median overall survival (SMAD4-negative: 125 (95% confidence interval, 51-214) months versus SMAD4-positive: 185 (95% confidence interval, 138-232) months; P = .02). Consistent with the known biology of the DPC4/SMAD4 gene, an absence of its protein expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors was negatively associated with outcomes after curative operative resection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculation of the confidence intervals for transformation parameters in the registration of medical images

PubMed Central

Bansal, Ravi; Staib, Lawrence H.; Laine, Andrew F.; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Jun; Posecion, Lainie F.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Images from different individuals typically cannot be registered precisely because anatomical features within the images differ across the people imaged and because the current methods for image registration have inherent technological limitations that interfere with perfect registration. Quantifying the inevitable error in image registration is therefore of crucial importance in assessing the effects that image misregistration may have on subsequent analyses in an imaging study. We have developed a mathematical framework for quantifying errors in registration by computing the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters (3 translations, 3 rotations, and 1 global scale) for the similarity transformation. The presence of noise in images and the variability in anatomy across individuals ensures that estimated registration parameters are always random variables. We assume a functional relation among intensities across voxels in the images, and we use the theory of nonlinear, least-squares estimation to show that the parameters are multivariate Gaussian distributed. We then use the covariance matrix of this distribution to compute the confidence intervals of the transformation parameters. These confidence intervals provide a quantitative assessment of the registration error across the images. Because transformation parameters are nonlinearly related to the coordinates of landmark points in the brain, we subsequently show that the coordinates of those landmark points are also multivariate Gaussian distributed. Using these distributions, we then compute the confidence intervals of the coordinates for landmark points in the image. Each of these confidence intervals in turn provides a quantitative assessment of the registration error at a particular landmark point. Because our method is computationally intensive, however, its current implementation is limited to assessing the error of the parameters in the similarity transformation across images. We assessed the performance of our method in computing the error in estimated similarity parameters by applying that method to real world dataset. Our results showed that the size of the confidence intervals computed using our method decreased – i.e. our confidence in the registration of images from different individuals increased – for increasing amounts of blur in the images. Moreover, the size of the confidence intervals increased for increasing amounts of noise, misregistration, and differing anatomy. Thus, our method precisely quantified confidence in the registration of images that contain varying amounts of misregistration and varying anatomy across individuals. PMID:19138877

Reliability of the identification of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children.

PubMed

Juskewitch, Justin E; Prasad, Swati; Salas, Carlos F Santillan; Huskins, W Charles

2012-01-01

To assess interobserver reliability of the identification of episodes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill hospitalized infants and children. Retrospective, cross-sectional study of the application of the 2005 consensus definition of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in infants and children by two independent, trained reviewers using information in the electronic medical record. Eighteen-bed pediatric multidisciplinary medical/surgical pediatric intensive care unit. A randomly selected sample of children admitted consecutively to the pediatric intensive care unit between May 1 and September 30, 2009. None. Sixty infants and children were selected from a total of 343 admitted patients. Their median age was 3.9 yrs (interquartile range, 1.5-12.7), 57% were female, and 68% were Caucasian. Nineteen (32%) children were identified by both reviewers as having an episode of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (88% agreement, 95% confidence interval 78-94; κ = 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.92). Among these 19 children, agreement between the reviewers for individual systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was: temperature (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); white blood cell count (89%, 95% confidence interval 67-99); respiratory rate (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); and heart rate (68%, 95% confidence interval 33-87). Episodes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children can be identified reproducibly using the consensus definition.

What was different about exposures reported by male Australian Gulf War veterans for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, compared with exposures reported for other deployments?

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Sim, Malcolm R; Kelsall, Helen L; Ikin, Jill F; McKenzie, Dean; Forbes, Andrew; Ittak, Peter

2006-07-01

This study identified chemical and environmental exposures specifically associated with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Exposures were self-reported in a postal questionnaire, in the period of 2000-2002, by 1,424 Australian male Persian Gulf War veterans in relation to their 1991 Persian Gulf War deployment and by 625 Persian Gulf War veterans and 514 members of a military comparison group in relation to other active deployments. Six of 28 investigated exposures were experienced more frequently during the Persian Gulf War than during other deployments; these were exposure to smoke (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-6.6), exposure to dust (OR, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.3), exposure to chemical warfare agents (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-7.9), use of respiratory protective equipment (OR, 13.6; 95% confidence interval, 7.6-26.8), use of nuclear, chemical, and biological protective suits (OR, 8.9; 95% confidence interval, 5.4-15.4), and entering/inspecting enemy equipment (OR, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-4.8). Other chemical and environmental exposures were not specific to the Persian Gulf War deployment but were also reported in relation to other deployments. The number of exposures reported was related to service type and number of deployments but not to age or rank.

Statin therapy in lower limb peripheral arterial disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Fisher, Robert K; Georgiadis, George S; Antoniou, Stavros A; Torella, Francesco

2014-11-01

To investigate and analyse the existing evidence supporting statin therapy in patients with lower limb atherosclerotic arterial disease. A systematic search of electronic information sources was undertaken to identify studies comparing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease treated with a statin and those not receiving a statin. Estimates were combined applying fixed- or random-effects models. Twelve observational cohort studies and two randomised trials reporting 19,368 patients were selected. Statin therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.78) and incidence of stroke (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). A trend towards improved cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.35-1.11), myocardial infarction (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.38-1.01), and the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.03), was identified. Meta-analyses of studies performing adjustments showed decreased all-cause mortality in statin users (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.86). Evidence supporting statins' protective role in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease is insufficient. Statin therapy seems to be effective in reducing all-cause mortality and the incidence cerebrovascular events in patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the utility of hexapod species for calculating a confidence interval about a succession based postmortem interval estimate.

PubMed

Perez, Anne E; Haskell, Neal H; Wells, Jeffrey D

2014-08-01

Carrion insect succession patterns have long been used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) during a death investigation. However, no published carrion succession study included sufficient replication to calculate a confidence interval about a PMI estimate based on occurrence data. We exposed 53 pig carcasses (16±2.5 kg), near the likely minimum needed for such statistical analysis, at a site in north-central Indiana, USA, over three consecutive summer seasons. Insects and Collembola were sampled daily from each carcass for a total of 14 days, by this time each was skeletonized. The criteria for judging a life stage of a given species to be potentially useful for succession-based PMI estimation were (1) nonreoccurrence (observed during a single period of presence on a corpse), and (2) found in a sufficiently large proportion of carcasses to support a PMI confidence interval. For this data set that proportion threshold is 45/53. Of the 266 species collected and identified, none was nonreoccuring in that each showed at least a gap of one day on a single carcass. If the definition of nonreoccurrence is relaxed to include such a single one-day gap the larval forms of Necrophilaamericana, Fanniascalaris, Cochliomyia macellaria, Phormiaregina, and Luciliaillustris satisfied these two criteria. Adults of Creophilus maxillosus, Necrobiaruficollis, and Necrodessurinamensis were common and showed only a few, single-day gaps in occurrence. C.maxillosus, P.regina, and L.illustris displayed exceptional forensic utility in that they were observed on every carcass. Although these observations were made at a single site during one season of the year, the species we found to be useful have large geographic ranges. We suggest that future carrion insect succession research focus only on a limited set of species with high potential forensic utility so as to reduce sample effort per carcass and thereby enable increased experimental replication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of statistical methods for evaluating matching performance of a biometric identification device: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuckers, Michael E.; Hawley, Anne; Livingstone, Katie; Mramba, Nona

2004-08-01

Confidence intervals are an important way to assess and estimate a parameter. In the case of biometric identification devices, several approaches to confidence intervals for an error rate have been proposed. Here we evaluate six of these methods. To complete this evaluation, we simulate data from a wide variety of parameter values. This data are simulated via a correlated binary distribution. We then determine how well these methods do at what they say they do: capturing the parameter inside the confidence interval. In addition, the average widths of the various confidence intervals are recorded for each set of parameters. The complete results of this simulation are presented graphically for easy comparison. We conclude by making a recommendation regarding which method performs best.

Association Between Carotid Bulb Diaphragm and Ischemic Stroke in Young Afro-Caribbean Patients: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Joux, Julien; Boulanger, Marion; Jeannin, Severine; Chausson, Nicolas; Hennequin, Jean-Luc; Molinié, Vincent; Smadja, Didier; Touzé, Emmanuel; Olindo, Stephane

2016-10-01

Carotid bulb diaphragm (CBD) has been described in young carotid ischemic stroke (CIS) patients, especially in blacks. However, the prevalence of CBD in CIS patients is unknown, and whether CBD is a risk factor for CIS remains unclear. We assessed the association between CBD and incident CIS in a population-based study. We selected all young (<55 years) CIS patients from a 1-year population-based cohort study in the Afro-Caribbean population of Martinique in 2012. All patients had a comprehensive work-up including a computed tomographic angiography. We calculated CIS associated with ipsilateral CBD incidence with 95% confidence intervals using Poisson distribution. We then selected age- and sex-matched controls among young (<55 years) Afro-Caribbean stroke-free patients admitted for a road crash who routinely had computed tomographic angiography. Odds ratio (ORs) were calculated by conditional logistic regression adjusted for hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and smoking. CIS associated with ipsilateral CBD incidence was 3.8 per 100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.1). Prevalence of ipsilateral CBD was 23% in all CIS and 37% in undetermined CIS patients. When restricted to undetermined CIS, CBD prevalence was 24 times higher than that in controls (adjusted OR, 24.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-325.6). CBD is associated with an increased risk of ipsilateral CIS in young Afro-Caribbean population. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2005-01-01

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Influence of fetal birth weight on perinatal outcome in planned vaginal births.

PubMed

Temerinac, Dunja; Chen, Xi; Sütterlin, Marc; Kehl, Sven

2014-02-01

The aim of this study was to provide information for better obstetric counseling by analyzing the impact of fetal birth weight (BW) on fetal and maternal outcome when vaginal birth is planned in a university hospital. In this retrospective study from January 1st 2006 to December 31st 2011, 5,177 singleton, alive deliveries at or >37 gestational weeks were assessed with regard to the fetal BW when vaginal birth was attempted. The normal BW group was defined as ≥2,500 <4,500 g. For comparison, further BW groups were defined as: group 1 <2,500 g, group 2 ≥4,000 <4,250 g, group 3 ≥4,250 <4,500 g and group 4 ≥4,500 g. Outcome criteria were mode of delivery and perineal lacerations as well as the pH and base excess of the umbilical cord artery, the Apgar score after 5 min and occurrence of shoulder dystocia. The set of controlling variables included maternal height, maternal weight, maternal age, gestational age, neonatal sex and parity. Second stage caesarean section is significantly more likely when fetal BW is under 2,500 g (30.7 vs. 15.5 % in the normal BW group, odds ratio 3.01, 95 % confidence interval 2.03-4.46, p value < 0.001). Shoulder dystocia occurred significantly more often when fetal BW was over 4,250 g (group 3: odds ratio 4.95, 95 % confidence interval 1.74-14.10, p value 0.003, group 4: odds ratio 19.96, 95 % confidence interval 7.61-52.38, p value < 0.001). The risk of an Apgar score after 5 min below 7 increased, when fetal BW was below 2,500 g (odds ratio 9.28, 95 % confidence interval 3.15-27.35, p value < 0.001) or above 4,500 g (odds ratio 5.65, 95 % confidence interval 1.22-26.24, p value 0.027). All groups were comparable to the normal group regarding pH and base excess of the umbilical cord artery as well as the risk for severe (third and fourth degree) perineal lacerations. Although a fetal birth weight under 2,500 g and a birth weight over 4,250 g are associated with some risks, there is no general contraindication for an attempt to deliver vaginally in a university hospital with regard to fetal birth weight.

Estimation of the uncertainty of analyte concentration from the measurement uncertainty.

PubMed

Brown, Simon; Cooke, Delwyn G; Blackwell, Leonard F

2015-09-01

Ligand-binding assays, such as immunoassays, are usually analysed using standard curves based on the four-parameter and five-parameter logistic models. An estimate of the uncertainty of an analyte concentration obtained from such curves is needed for confidence intervals or precision profiles. Using a numerical simulation approach, it is shown that the uncertainty of the analyte concentration estimate becomes significant at the extremes of the concentration range and that this is affected significantly by the steepness of the standard curve. We also provide expressions for the coefficient of variation of the analyte concentration estimate from which confidence intervals and the precision profile can be obtained. Using three examples, we show that the expressions perform well.

Expression of Proteins Involved in Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition as Predictors of Metastasis and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Ptrend 0.78 0.62 0.75 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of node...Ptrend 0.71 0.67 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of high-grade tumors... logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each of the seven SNPs and

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

PubMed

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding.

PubMed

Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit

2013-03-15

Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hazard ratio estimation and inference in clinical trials with many tied event times.

PubMed

Mehrotra, Devan V; Zhang, Yiwei

2018-06-13

The medical literature contains numerous examples of randomized clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints in which large numbers of events accrued over relatively short follow-up periods, resulting in many tied event times. A generally common feature across such examples was that the logrank test was used for hypothesis testing and the Cox proportional hazards model was used for hazard ratio estimation. We caution that this common practice is particularly risky in the setting of many tied event times for two reasons. First, the estimator of the hazard ratio can be severely biased if the Breslow tie-handling approximation for the Cox model (the default in SAS and Stata software) is used. Second, the 95% confidence interval for the hazard ratio can include one even when the corresponding logrank test p-value is less than 0.05. To help establish a better practice, with applicability for both superiority and noninferiority trials, we use theory and simulations to contrast Wald and score tests based on well-known tie-handling approximations for the Cox model. Our recommendation is to report the Wald test p-value and corresponding confidence interval based on the Efron approximation. The recommended test is essentially as powerful as the logrank test, the accompanying point and interval estimates of the hazard ratio have excellent statistical properties even in settings with many tied event times, inferential alignment between the p-value and confidence interval is guaranteed, and implementation is straightforward using commonly used software. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

PubMed Central

Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

2006-01-01

Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

Power, effects, confidence, and significance: an investigation of statistical practices in nursing research.

PubMed

Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

2014-05-01

To (a) assess the statistical power of nursing research to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes; (b) estimate the experiment-wise Type I error rate in these studies; and (c) assess the extent to which (i) a priori power analyses, (ii) effect sizes (and interpretations thereof), and (iii) confidence intervals were reported. Statistical review. Papers published in the 2011 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. Papers were assessed for statistical power, control of experiment-wise Type I error, reporting of a priori power analyses, reporting and interpretation of effect sizes, and reporting of confidence intervals. The analyses were based on 333 papers, from which 10,337 inferential statistics were identified. The median power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes was .40 (interquartile range [IQR]=.24-.71), .98 (IQR=.85-1.00), and 1.00 (IQR=1.00-1.00), respectively. The median experiment-wise Type I error rate was .54 (IQR=.26-.80). A priori power analyses were reported in 28% of papers. Effect sizes were routinely reported for Spearman's rank correlations (100% of papers in which this test was used), Poisson regressions (100%), odds ratios (100%), Kendall's tau correlations (100%), Pearson's correlations (99%), logistic regressions (98%), structural equation modelling/confirmatory factor analyses/path analyses (97%), and linear regressions (83%), but were reported less often for two-proportion z tests (50%), analyses of variance/analyses of covariance/multivariate analyses of variance (18%), t tests (8%), Wilcoxon's tests (8%), Chi-squared tests (8%), and Fisher's exact tests (7%), and not reported for sign tests, Friedman's tests, McNemar's tests, multi-level models, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Confidence intervals were reported in 28% of papers. The use, reporting, and interpretation of inferential statistics in nursing research need substantial improvement. Most importantly, researchers should abandon the misleading practice of interpreting the results from inferential tests based solely on whether they are statistically significant (or not) and, instead, focus on reporting and interpreting effect sizes, confidence intervals, and significance levels. Nursing researchers also need to conduct and report a priori power analyses, and to address the issue of Type I experiment-wise error inflation in their studies. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment under Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

2008-01-01

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from…

Dynamic association rules for gene expression data analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Shu-Chuan; Tsai, Tsung-Hsien; Chung, Cheng-Han; Li, Wen-Hsiung

2015-10-14

The purpose of gene expression analysis is to look for the association between regulation of gene expression levels and phenotypic variations. This association based on gene expression profile has been used to determine whether the induction/repression of genes correspond to phenotypic variations including cell regulations, clinical diagnoses and drug development. Statistical analyses on microarray data have been developed to resolve gene selection issue. However, these methods do not inform us of causality between genes and phenotypes. In this paper, we propose the dynamic association rule algorithm (DAR algorithm) which helps ones to efficiently select a subset of significant genes for subsequent analysis. The DAR algorithm is based on association rules from market basket analysis in marketing. We first propose a statistical way, based on constructing a one-sided confidence interval and hypothesis testing, to determine if an association rule is meaningful. Based on the proposed statistical method, we then developed the DAR algorithm for gene expression data analysis. The method was applied to analyze four microarray datasets and one Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) dataset: the Mice Apo A1 dataset, the whole genome expression dataset of mouse embryonic stem cells, expression profiling of the bone marrow of Leukemia patients, Microarray Quality Control (MAQC) data set and the RNA-seq dataset of a mouse genomic imprinting study. A comparison of the proposed method with the t-test on the expression profiling of the bone marrow of Leukemia patients was conducted. We developed a statistical way, based on the concept of confidence interval, to determine the minimum support and minimum confidence for mining association relationships among items. With the minimum support and minimum confidence, one can find significant rules in one single step. The DAR algorithm was then developed for gene expression data analysis. Four gene expression datasets showed that the proposed DAR algorithm not only was able to identify a set of differentially expressed genes that largely agreed with that of other methods, but also provided an efficient and accurate way to find influential genes of a disease. In the paper, the well-established association rule mining technique from marketing has been successfully modified to determine the minimum support and minimum confidence based on the concept of confidence interval and hypothesis testing. It can be applied to gene expression data to mine significant association rules between gene regulation and phenotype. The proposed DAR algorithm provides an efficient way to find influential genes that underlie the phenotypic variance.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Statin Adherence Under Universal Coverage: Does Sex Matter?

PubMed

Aarnio, Emma; Martikainen, Janne; Winn, Aaron N; Huupponen, Risto; Vahtera, Jussi; Korhonen, Maarit J

2016-11-01

Previous research shows that low socioeconomic position (SEP; especially low income) is associated with statin nonadherence. We investigated the relationship between SEP and statin adherence in a country with universal coverage using group-based trajectory modeling in addition to the proportion of days covered. Using data from Finnish healthcare registers, we identified 116 846 individuals, aged 45 to 75 years, who initiated statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We measured adherence as proportion of days covered over an 18-month period since initiation and identified different adherence patterns based on monthly adherence with group-based trajectory modeling. When adjusted for age, marital status, residential area, clinical characteristics, and copayment, low SEP was associated with statin nonadherence (proportion of days covered <80%) among men (eg, lowest versus highest income quintile: odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-1.50; basic versus higher-degree education: odds ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.24; unemployment versus employment: odds ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.25). Among women, the corresponding associations were different ( P <0.001 for sex-by-income quintile, sex-by-education level, and sex-by-labor market status interactions) and mainly nonsignificant. Results based on adherence trajectories showed that men in low SEP were likely to belong to trajectories presenting a fast decline in adherence. Low SEP was associated with overall and rapidly increasing statin nonadherence among men. Conversely, in women, associations between SEP and nonadherence were weak and inconsistent. Group-based trajectory modeling provided insight into the dynamics of statin adherence and its association with SEP. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Towards the estimation of effect measures in studies using respondent-driven sampling.

PubMed

Rotondi, Michael A

2014-06-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an increasingly common sampling technique to recruit hidden populations. Statistical methods for RDS are not straightforward due to the correlation between individual outcomes and subject weighting; thus, analyses are typically limited to estimation of population proportions. This manuscript applies the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) to construct confidence intervals for effect measures such as risk difference (difference of proportions) or relative risk in studies using RDS. To illustrate the approach, MOVER is used to construct confidence intervals for differences in the prevalence of demographic characteristics between an RDS study and convenience study of injection drug users. MOVER is then applied to obtain a confidence interval for the relative risk between education levels and HIV seropositivity and current infection with syphilis, respectively. This approach provides a simple method to construct confidence intervals for effect measures in RDS studies. Since it only relies on a proportion and appropriate confidence limits, it can also be applied to previously published manuscripts.

How Much Confidence Can We Have in EU-SILC? Complex Sample Designs and the Standard Error of the Europe 2020 Poverty Indicators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goedeme, Tim

2013-01-01

If estimates are based on samples, they should be accompanied by appropriate standard errors and confidence intervals. This is true for scientific research in general, and is even more important if estimates are used to inform and evaluate policy measures such as those aimed at attaining the Europe 2020 poverty reduction target. In this article I…

Maternal Consumption of Coffee and Caffeine-containing Beverages and Oral Clefts: A Population-based Case-Control Study in Norway

PubMed Central

Wilcox, Allen J.; Lie, Rolv T.; Andersen, Lene F.; Drevon, Christian A.

2009-01-01

A large, population-based case-control study of facial clefts was carried out in Norway between 1996 and 2001. The study included 573 cases—377 with cleft lip with or without cleft palate and 196 with cleft palate only—and 763 randomly selected controls. Maternal consumption of coffee and other caffeine-containing beverages in early pregnancy was recorded shortly after birth. Compared with that for no coffee consumption, the adjusted odds ratios for cleft lip with or without cleft palate were 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.92) for less than 3 cups a day and 1.59 (95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.39) for 3 cups or more. Coffee consumption was not associated with risk of cleft palate only (for ≥3 cups vs. none, adjusted odds ratio = 0.96, 95% confidence interval: 0.55, 1.67). Tea consumption was associated with a reduced odds ratio of both cleft lip with or without cleft palate and cleft palate only. There was little evidence of an association between caffeine exposure and clefts when all sources of caffeine were considered. Adjustment for known confounding factors in general had minor effects on risk estimates. Still, the authors could not rule out the possibility of uncontrolled confounding by factors associated with the habit of drinking coffee. PMID:19342400

Novel Screening Tool for Stroke Using Artificial Neural Network.

PubMed

Abedi, Vida; Goyal, Nitin; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha; Hontecillas, Raquel; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Elijovich, Lucas; Metter, Jeffrey E; Alexandrov, Anne W; Liebeskind, David S; Alexandrov, Andrei V; Zand, Ramin

2017-06-01

The timely diagnosis of stroke at the initial examination is extremely important given the disease morbidity and narrow time window for intervention. The goal of this study was to develop a supervised learning method to recognize acute cerebral ischemia (ACI) and differentiate that from stroke mimics in an emergency setting. Consecutive patients presenting to the emergency department with stroke-like symptoms, within 4.5 hours of symptoms onset, in 2 tertiary care stroke centers were randomized for inclusion in the model. We developed an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The learning algorithm was based on backpropagation. To validate the model, we used a 10-fold cross-validation method. A total of 260 patients (equal number of stroke mimics and ACIs) were enrolled for the development and validation of our ANN model. Our analysis indicated that the average sensitivity and specificity of ANN for the diagnosis of ACI based on the 10-fold cross-validation analysis was 80.0% (95% confidence interval, 71.8-86.3) and 86.2% (95% confidence interval, 78.7-91.4), respectively. The median precision of ANN for the diagnosis of ACI was 92% (95% confidence interval, 88.7-95.3). Our results show that ANN can be an effective tool for the recognition of ACI and differentiation of ACI from stroke mimics at the initial examination. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Epidemiology of Interpandemic and Pandemic Influenza in Vietnam, 2007–2010

PubMed Central

Horby, Peter; Mai, Le Quynh; Fox, Annette; Thai, Pham Quang; Thi Thu Yen, Nguyen; Thanh, Le Thi; Le Khanh Hang, Nguyen; Duong, Tran Nhu; Thoang, Dang Dinh; Farrar, Jeremy; Wolbers, Marcel; Hien, Nguyen Tran

2012-01-01

Prospective community-based studies have provided fundamental insights into the epidemiology of influenza in temperate regions, but few comparable studies have been undertaken in the tropics. The authors conducted prospective influenza surveillance and intermittent seroprevalence surveys in a household-based cohort in Vietnam between December 2007 and April 2010, resulting in 1,793 person-seasons of influenza surveillance. Age- and sex-standardized estimates of the risk of acquiring any influenza infection per season in persons 5 years of age or older were 21.1% (95% confidence interval: 17.4, 24.7) in season 1, 26.4% (95% confidence interval: 22.6, 30.2) in season 2, and 17.0% (95% confidence interval: 13.6, 20.4) in season 3. Some individuals experienced multiple episodes of infection with different influenza types/subtypes in the same season (n = 27) or reinfection with the same subtype in different seasons (n = 22). The highest risk of influenza infection was in persons 5–9 years old, in whom the risk of influenza infection per season was 41.8%. Although the highest infection risk was in school-aged children, there were important heterogeneities in the age of infection by subtype and season. These heterogeneities could influence the impact of school closure and childhood vaccination on influenza transmission in tropical areas, such as Vietnam. PMID:22411862

Night-shift work and breast cancer risk in a cohort of Chinese women.

PubMed

Pronk, Anjoeka; Ji, Bu-Tian; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Xue, Shouzheng; Yang, Gong; Li, Hong-Lan; Rothman, Nathaniel; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Chow, Wong-Ho

2010-05-01

Shift work involving disruption of circadian rhythms has been classified as a probable cause of human cancer by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, based on limited epidemiologic evidence and abundant experimental evidence. The authors investigated this association in a population-based prospective cohort study of Chinese women. At baseline (1996-2000), information on lifetime occupational history was obtained from 73,049 women. Lifetime night-shift exposure indices were created using a job exposure matrix. During 2002-2004, self-reported data on frequency and duration of night-shift work were collected. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for major breast cancer risk factors, were calculated. During follow-up through 2007, 717 incident cases of breast cancer were diagnosed. Breast cancer risk was not associated with ever working the night shift on the basis of the job exposure matrix (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.0, 95% confidence interval: 0.9, 1.2) or self-reported history of night-shift work (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval: 0.7, 1.1). Risk was also not associated with frequency, duration, or cumulative amount of night-shift work. There were no indications of effect modification. The lack of an association between night-shift work and breast cancer adds to the inconsistent epidemiologic evidence. It may be premature to consider shift work a cause of cancer.

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tully, Phillip J; Cosh, Suzanne M

2013-12-01

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease patients remain unquantified. Systematic searching of Medline, Embase, SCOPUS and PsycINFO databases revealed 1025 unique citations. Aggregate generalized anxiety disorder prevalence (12 studies, N = 3485) was 10.94 per cent (95% confidence interval: 7.8-13.99) and 13.52 per cent (95% confidence interval: 8.39-18.66) employing Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria (random effects). Lifetime generalized anxiety disorder prevalence was 25.80 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20.84-30.77). In seven studies, modest correlation was evident between generalized anxiety disorder and depression, Fisher's Z = .30 (95% confidence interval: .19-.42), suggesting that each psychiatric disorder is best conceptualized as contributing unique variance to coronary heart disease prognosis.

Autonomous motivation mediates the relation between goals for physical activity and physical activity behavior in adolescents.

PubMed

Duncan, Michael J; Eyre, Emma Lj; Bryant, Elizabeth; Seghers, Jan; Galbraith, Niall; Nevill, Alan M

2017-04-01

Overall, 544 children (mean age ± standard deviation = 14.2 ± .94 years) completed self-report measures of physical activity goal content, behavioral regulations, and physical activity behavior. Body mass index was determined from height and mass. The indirect effect of intrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 162.27; 95% confidence interval [89.73, 244.70]), but not controlled motivation ( b = 5.30; 95% confidence interval [-39.05, 45.16]). The indirect effect of extrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 106.25; 95% confidence interval [63.74, 159.13]) but not controlled motivation ( b = 17.28; 95% confidence interval [-31.76, 70.21]). Weight status did not alter these findings.

Confidence intervals for a difference between lognormal means in cluster randomization trials.

PubMed

Poirier, Julia; Zou, G Y; Koval, John

2017-04-01

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia.

Comparing Physical Examination With Sonographic Versions of the Same Examination Techniques for Splenomegaly.

PubMed

Cessford, Tara; Meneilly, Graydon S; Arishenkoff, Shane; Eddy, Christopher; Chen, Luke Y C; Kim, Daniel J; Ma, Irene W Y

2017-12-08

To determine whether sonographic versions of physical examination techniques can accurately identify splenomegaly, Castell's method (Ann Intern Med 1967; 67:1265-1267), the sonographic Castell's method, spleen tip palpation, and the sonographic spleen tip technique were compared with reference measurements. Two clinicians trained in bedside sonography patients recruited from an urban hematology clinic. Each patient was examined for splenomegaly using conventional percussion and palpation techniques (Castell's method and spleen tip palpation, respectively), as well as the sonographic versions of these maneuvers (sonographic Castell's method and sonographic spleen tip technique). Results were compared with a reference standard based on professional sonographer measurements. The sonographic Castell's method had greater sensitivity (91.7% [95% confidence interval, 61.5% to 99.8%]) than the traditional Castell's method (83.3% [95% confidence interval, 51.6% to 97.9%]) but took longer to perform [mean ± SD, 28.8 ± 18.6 versus 18.8 ± 8.1 seconds; P = .01). Palpable and positive sonographic spleen tip results were both 100% specific, but the sonographic spleen tip method was more sensitive (58.3% [95% confidence interval, 27.7% to 84.8%] versus 33.3% [95% confidence interval, 9.9% to 65.1%]). Sonographic versions of traditional physical examination maneuvers have greater diagnostic accuracy than the physical examination maneuvers from which they are derived but may take longer to perform. We recommend a combination of traditional physical examination and sonographic techniques when evaluating for splenomegaly at the bedside. © 2017 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

CYP17 genetic polymorphism, breast cancer, and breast cancer risk factors.

PubMed

Ambrosone, Christine B; Moysich, Kirsten B; Furberg, Helena; Freudenheim, Jo L; Bowman, Elise D; Ahmed, Sabrina; Graham, Saxon; Vena, John E; Shields, Peter G

2003-01-01

Findings from previous studies regarding the association between the CYP17 genotype and breast cancer are inconsistent. We investigated the role of the MspAI genetic polymorphism in the 5' region of CYP17 on risk of breast cancer and as a modifier of reproductive risk factors. Questionnaire and genotyping data were obtained from a population-based, case-control study of premenopausal (n = 182) and postmenopausal (n = 214) European-American Caucasian women in western New York. Cases and controls were frequency matched by age and by county of residence. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were used to estimate relative risks. The CYP17 genotype was not associated with breast cancer risk; however, controls with the A2/A2 genotype (associated with higher estrogens) had earlier menarche and earlier first full-term pregnancy. Premenopausal women with A1/A1 genotypes, but not with A2 alleles, were at significantly decreased risk with late age at menarche (odds ratio = 0.37, 95% confidence interval = 0.14-0.99), and at increased risk with late age at first full-term pregnancy (odds ratio = 4.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.46-12.67) and with use of oral contraceptives (odds ratio = 3.24, 95% confidence interval = 1.08-9.73). Associations were weaker among postmenopausal women. These results suggest that the effects of factors that may alter breast cancer risk through a hormonal mechanism may be less important among premenopausal women with putative higher lifetime exposures to circulating estrogens related to the CYP17 A2 allele.

Effects of Mat Pilates on Physical Functional Performance of Older Adults: A Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Bueno de Souza, Roberta Oliveira; Marcon, Liliane de Faria; Arruda, Alex Sandro Faria de; Pontes Junior, Francisco Luciano; Melo, Ruth Caldeira de

2018-06-01

The present meta-analysis aimed to examine evidence from randomized controlled trials to determine the effects of mat Pilates on measures of physical functional performance in the older population. A search was conducted in the MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, Scielo, and PEDro databases between February and March 2017. Only randomized controlled trials that were written in English, included subjects aged 60 yrs who used mat Pilates exercises, included a comparison (control) group, and reported performance-based measures of physical function (balance, flexibility, muscle strength, and cardiorespiratory fitness) were included. The methodological quality of the studies was analyzed according to the PEDro scale and the best-evidence synthesis. The meta-analysis was conducted with the Review Manager 5.3 software. The search retrieved 518 articles, nine of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. High methodological quality was found in five of these studies. Meta-analysis indicated a large effect of mat Pilates on dynamic balance (standardized mean difference = 1.10, 95% confidence interval = 0.29-1.90), muscle strength (standardized mean difference = 1.13, 95% confidence interval = 0.30-1.96), flexibility (standardized mean difference = 1.22, 95% confidence interval = 0.39-2.04), and cardiorespiratory fitness (standardized mean difference = 1.48, 95% confidence interval = 0.42-2.54) of elderly subjects. There is evidence that mat Pilates improves dynamic balance, lower limb strength, hip and lower back flexibility, and cardiovascular endurance in elderly individuals. Furthermore, high-quality studies are necessary to clarify the effects of mat Pilates on other physical functional measurements among older adults.

Statistical evaluation of time-dependent metabolite concentrations: estimation of post-mortem intervals based on in situ 1H-MRS of the brain.

PubMed

Scheurer, Eva; Ith, Michael; Dietrich, Daniel; Kreis, Roland; Hüsler, Jürg; Dirnhofer, Richard; Boesch, Chris

2005-05-01

Knowledge of the time interval from death (post-mortem interval, PMI) has an enormous legal, criminological and psychological impact. Aiming to find an objective method for the determination of PMIs in forensic medicine, 1H-MR spectroscopy (1H-MRS) was used in a sheep head model to follow changes in brain metabolite concentrations after death. Following the characterization of newly observed metabolites (Ith et al., Magn. Reson. Med. 2002; 5: 915-920), the full set of acquired spectra was analyzed statistically to provide a quantitative estimation of PMIs with their respective confidence limits. In a first step, analytical mathematical functions are proposed to describe the time courses of 10 metabolites in the decomposing brain up to 3 weeks post-mortem. Subsequently, the inverted functions are used to predict PMIs based on the measured metabolite concentrations. Individual PMIs calculated from five different metabolites are then pooled, being weighted by their inverse variances. The predicted PMIs from all individual examinations in the sheep model are compared with known true times. In addition, four human cases with forensically estimated PMIs are compared with predictions based on single in situ MRS measurements. Interpretation of the individual sheep examinations gave a good correlation up to 250 h post-mortem, demonstrating that the predicted PMIs are consistent with the data used to generate the model. Comparison of the estimated PMIs with the forensically determined PMIs in the four human cases shows an adequate correlation. Current PMI estimations based on forensic methods typically suffer from uncertainties in the order of days to weeks without mathematically defined confidence information. In turn, a single 1H-MRS measurement of brain tissue in situ results in PMIs with defined and favorable confidence intervals in the range of hours, thus offering a quantitative and objective method for the determination of PMIs. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Warfarin Use in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Hemodialysis: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Yoon, Chang-Yun; Noh, Juhwan; Jhee, Jong Hyun; Chang, Tae Ik; Kang, Ea Wha; Kee, Youn Kyung; Kim, Hyoungnae; Park, Seohyun; Yun, Hae-Ryong; Jung, Su-Young; Oh, Hyung Jung; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung Hyeok; Kang, Shin-Wook; Kim, Changsoo; Yoo, Tae-Hyun

2017-09-01

The aim of this study is to elucidate the effects of warfarin use in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing dialysis using a population-based Korean registry. Data were extracted from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, which is a nationwide, mandatory social insurance database of all Korean citizens enrolled in the National Health Information Service between 2009 and 2013. Thromboembolic and hemorrhagic outcomes were analyzed according to warfarin use. Overall and propensity score-matched cohorts were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models. Among 9974 hemodialysis patients with atrial fibrillation, the mean age was 66.6±12.2 years, 5806 (58.2%) were men, and 2921 (29.3%) used warfarin. After propensity score matching to adjust for all described baseline differences, 5548 subjects remained, and differences in baseline variables were distributed equally between warfarin users and nonusers. During a mean follow-up duration of 15.9±11.1 months, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke occurred in 678 (6.8%) and 227 (2.3%) patients, respectively. In a multiple Cox model, warfarin use was significantly associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.91; P =0.010) in the overall cohort. Furthermore, a significant relationship between warfarin use and hemorrhagic stroke was found in propensity-matched subjects (hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.22; P =0.013). However, the ratios for ischemic stroke were not significantly different in either the propensity-matched (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.15; P =0.569) or overall cohort (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.26; P =0.470). Our findings suggest that warfarin should be used carefully in hemodialysis patients, given the higher risk of hemorrhagic events and the lack of ability to prevent thromboembolic complications. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Contemporary Sex-Based Differences by Age in Presenting Characteristics, Use of an Early Invasive Strategy, and Inhospital Mortality in Patients With Non-ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in the United States.

PubMed

Gupta, Tanush; Kolte, Dhaval; Khera, Sahil; Agarwal, Nayan; Villablanca, Pedro A; Goel, Kashish; Patel, Kavisha; Aronow, Wilbert S; Wiley, Jose; Bortnick, Anna E; Aronow, Herbert D; Abbott, J Dawn; Pyo, Robert T; Panza, Julio A; Menegus, Mark A; Rihal, Charanjit S; Fonarow, Gregg C; Garcia, Mario J; Bhatt, Deepak L

2018-01-01

Prior studies have reported higher inhospital mortality in women versus men with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Whether this is because of worse baseline risk profile compared with men or sex-based disparities in treatment is not completely understood. We queried the 2003 to 2014 National Inpatient Sample databases to identify all hospitalizations in patients aged ≥18 years with the principal diagnosis of non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Complex samples multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine sex differences in use of an early invasive strategy and inhospital mortality. Of 4 765 739 patients with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, 2 026 285 (42.5%) were women. Women were on average 6 years older than men and had a higher comorbidity burden. Women were less likely to be treated with an early invasive strategy (29.4% versus 39.2%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-0.94). Women had higher crude inhospital mortality than men (4.7% versus 3.9%; unadjusted odds ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.25). After adjustment for age (adjusted odds ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-0.98) and additionally for comorbidities, other demographics, and hospital characteristics, women had 10% lower odds of inhospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-0.92). Further adjustment for differences in the use of an early invasive strategy did not change the association between female sex and lower risk-adjusted inhospital mortality. Although women were less likely to be treated with an early invasive strategy compared with men, the lower use of an early invasive strategy was not responsible for the higher crude inhospital mortality in women, which could be entirely explained by older age and higher comorbidity burden. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Stroke incidence and 30-day and six-month case fatality rates in Udine, Italy: a population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Janes, Francesco; Gigli, Gian Luigi; D'Anna, Lucio; Cancelli, Iacopo; Perelli, Anna; Canal, Giessica; Russo, Valentina; Zanchettin, Barbara; Valente, Mariarosaria

2013-10-01

Stroke incidence in high-income countries is reported to decrease, and new data on stroke incidence and outcome are needed to design stroke services and to ameliorate stroke management. This study is part of a two-year prospective community-based registry of all cerebrovascular events in the district of Udine (153,312 inhabitants), Friuli-Venezia Giulia region, northeast of Italy, between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2009. Overlapping sources for case finding were used, combining hot and cold pursuit. We identified 784 stroke cases, 640 (81.6%) incident. The crude overall annual incidence rate per 100,000 residents was 256 (95% confidence interval 241-271) for all strokes and 209 (95% confidence interval 195-223) for first-ever strokes. Incidence rate for first-ever strokes was 181 (95% confidence interval 155-211) after adjustment to the 2007 Italian population and 104 (95% confidence interval 88-122) compared with the European standard population. Incidence rates for first-ever strokes was 215 (196-235) for women, 202 (183-223) for men. Crude annual incidence rates per 100,000 population were 167 (153-178) for ischemic stroke, 31 (26-37) for intracerebral hemorrhage, 8.1 (5.7-11.4) for sub-arachnoid hemorrhage, and 4.6 (2.8-7.1) for undetermined stroke. Overall case fatality rates for first-ever stroke were 20.6% at 28 days and 30.2% at 180 days. Our study shows incidence rates higher than previously reported in our region but not supporting the view of higher incidence rates in Northern than in Southern Italy. Results contribute to time-trends analysis on epidemiology, useful for dimensioning services in Italy and show the persistence of a gap between the outcome of stroke in Italy and that of the best performing European countries, urging to adopt better stroke management plans. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

Risk score to predict hospital-acquired pneumonia after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

PubMed

Ji, Ruijun; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Du, Wanliang; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Yongjun

2014-09-01

We aimed to develop a risk score (intracerebral hemorrhage-associated pneumonia score, ICH-APS) for predicting hospital-acquired stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) after ICH. The ICH-APS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR), in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Variables routinely collected at presentation were used for predicting SAP after ICH. For testing the added value of hematoma volume measure, we separately developed 2 models with (ICH-APS-B) and without (ICH-APS-A) hematoma volume included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and integrated discrimination index were used to assess model discrimination, calibration, and reclassification, respectively. The SAP was 16.4% and 17.7% in the overall derivation (n=2998) and validation (n=2000) cohorts, respectively. A 23-point ICH-APS-A was developed based on a set of predictors and showed good discrimination in the overall derivation (AUROC, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.77) and validation (AUROC, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.79) cohorts. The ICH-APS-A was more sensitive for patients with length of stay >48 hours (AUROC, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.81) than those with length of stay <48 hours (AUROC, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.55-0.73). The ICH-APS-A was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the derivation (P=0.20) and validation (P=0.66) cohorts. Similarly, a 26-point ICH-APS-B was established. The ICH-APS-A and ICH-APS-B were not significantly different in discrimination and reclassification for SAP after ICH. The ICH-APSs are valid risk scores for predicting SAP after ICH, especially for patients with length of stay >48 hours. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Population-based case-control study of white matter changes on brain imaging in transient ischemic attack and ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Li, Linxin; Simoni, Michela; Küker, Wilhelm; Schulz, Ursula G; Christie, Sharon; Wilcock, Gordon K; Rothwell, Peter M

2013-11-01

White matter changes (WMC) are a common finding on brain imaging and are associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. They are most frequent in small vessel stroke; however, in the absence of comparisons with normal controls, it is uncertain whether WMC are also more frequent than expected in other stroke subtypes. Therefore, we compared WMC in pathogenic subtypes of ischemic stroke versus controls in a population-based study. We evaluated the presence and severity of WMC on computed tomography and on magnetic resonance brain imaging using modified Blennow/Fazekas scale and age-related white matter changes scale, respectively, in a population-based study of patients with incident transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke (Oxford Vascular Study) and in a study of local controls (Oxford Project to Investigate Memory and Ageing) without history of transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke, with stratification by stroke pathogenesis (Trial of Org10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification). Among 1601 consecutive eligible patients with first-ever ischemic events, 1453 patients had computed tomography brain imaging, 562 had magnetic resonance imaging, and 414 patients had both. Compared with 313 controls (all with computed tomography and 131 with magnetic resonance imaging) and after adjustment for age, sex, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension, moderate/severe WMC (age-related white matter changes scale) were more frequent in patients with small vessel events (odds ratio, 3.51 [95% confidence interval, 2.13-5.76]; P<0.0001) but not in large artery (odds ratio, 1.03 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.67]), cardioembolic (odds ratio, 0.87 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-1.34]), or undetermined (odds ratio, 0.90 [95% confidence interval, 0.62-1.30]) subtypes. Results were consistent for ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack, for other scales, and for magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography separately. In contrast to small vessel ischemic events, WMC were not independently associated with other pathogenic subtypes, suggesting that WMC are unlikely to be an independent risk factor for nonsmall vessel events.

Collaborative effects of bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation and prehospital advanced cardiac life support by physicians on survival of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a nationwide population-based observational study.

PubMed

Yasunaga, Hideo; Horiguchi, Hiromasa; Tanabe, Seizan; Akahane, Manabu; Ogawa, Toshio; Koike, Soichi; Imamura, Tomoaki

2010-01-01

There are inconsistent data about the effectiveness of prehospital physician-staffed advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) on the outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Furthermore, the relative importance of bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (BCPR) and ACLS and the effectiveness of their combination have not been clearly demonstrated. Using a prospective, nationwide, population-based registry of all OHCA patients in Japan, we enrolled 95,072 patients whose arrests were witnessed by bystanders and 23,127 patients witnessed by emergency medical service providers between 2005 and 2007. We divided the bystander-witnessed arrest patients into Group A (ACLS by emergency life-saving technicians without BCPR), Group B (ACLS by emergency life-saving technicians with BCPR), Group C (ACLS by physicians without BCPR) and Group D (ACLS by physicians with BCPR). The outcome data included 1-month survival and neurological outcomes determined by the cerebral performance category. Among the 95,072 bystander-witnessed arrest patients, 7,722 (8.1%) were alive at 1 month, including 2,754 (2.9%) with good performance and 3,171 (3.3%) with vegetative status or worse. BCPR occurred in 42% of bystander-witnessed arrests. In comparison with Group A, the rates of good-performance survival were significantly higher in Group B (odds ratio (OR), 2.23; 95% confidence interval, 2.05 to 2.42; P < 0.01) and Group D (OR, 2.80; 95% confidence interval, 2.28 to 3.43; P < 0.01), while no significant difference was seen for Group C (OR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.61; P = 0.32). The occurrence of vegetative status or worse at 1 month was highest in Group C (OR, 1.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.55 to 2.37; P < 0.01). In this registry-based study, BCPR significantly improved the survival of OHCA with good cerebral outcome. The groups with BCPR and ACLS by physicians had the best outcomes. However, receiving ACLS by physicians without preceding BCPR significantly increased the number of patients with neurologically unfavorable outcomes.

Aspirin for Evidence-Based Preeclampsia Prevention trial: effect of aspirin in prevention of preterm preeclampsia in subgroups of women according to their characteristics and medical and obstetrical history.

PubMed

Poon, Liona C; Wright, David; Rolnik, Daniel L; Syngelaki, Argyro; Delgado, Juan Luis; Tsokaki, Theodora; Leipold, Gergo; Akolekar, Ranjit; Shearing, Siobhan; De Stefani, Luciana; Jani, Jacques C; Plasencia, Walter; Evangelinakis, Nikolaos; Gonzalez-Vanegas, Otilia; Persico, Nicola; Nicolaides, Kypros H

2017-11-01

The Combined Multimarker Screening and Randomized Patient Treatment with Aspirin for Evidence-Based Preeclampsia Prevention trial demonstrated that in women who were at high risk for preterm preeclampsia with delivery at <37 weeks' gestation identified by screening by means of an algorithm that combines maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation, aspirin administration from 11 to 14 until 36 weeks' gestation was associated with a significant reduction in the incidence of preterm preeclampsia (odds ratio 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.20 to 0.74; P=0.004). We sought to examine whether there are differences in the effect of aspirin on the incidence of preterm preeclampsia in the Aspirin for Evidence-Based Preeclampsia Prevention trial in subgroups defined according to maternal characteristics and medical and obstetrical history. This was a secondary analysis of data from the Aspirin for Evidence-Based Preeclampsia Prevention trial. Subgroup analysis was performed to assess evidence of differences in the effect of aspirin on incidence of preterm preeclampsia in subgroups defined by maternal age (<30 and ≥30 years), body mass index (<25 and ≥25 kg/m 2 ), racial origin (Afro-Caribbean, Caucasian and other), method of conception (natural and assisted), cigarette smoking (smoker and non-smoker), family history of preterm preeclampsia (present and absent), obstetrical history (nulliparous, multiparous with previous preterm preeclampsia and multiparous without previous preterm preeclampsia), history of chronic hypertension (present and absent). Interaction tests were performed on the full data set of patients in the intention to treat population and on the data set of patients who took ≥ 90% of the prescribed medication. Results are presented as forest plot with P values for the interaction effects, group sizes, event counts and estimated odds ratios. We examined whether the test of interaction was significant at the 5% level with a Bonferroni adjustment for multiple comparisons. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the aspirin effect in subgroups defined according to maternal characteristics and obstetrical history. In participants with chronic hypertension preterm preeclampsia occurred in 10.2% (5/49) in the aspirin group and 8.2% (5/61) in the placebo group (adjusted odds ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-5.12). The respective values in those without chronic hypertension were 1.1% (8/749) in the aspirin group and 3.9% (30/761) in the placebo group (adjusted odds ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.60). In all participants with adherence of ≥90% the adjusted odds ratio in the aspirin group was 0.24 (95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.65); in the subgroup with chronic hypertension it was 2.06 (95% confidence interval, 0.40-10.71); and in those without chronic hypertension it was 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.41). For the complete data set the test of interaction was not significant at the 5% level (P = .055), but in those with adherence ≥90%, after adjustment for multiple comparisons, the interaction was significant at the 5% level (P = .0019). The beneficial effect of aspirin in the prevention of preterm preeclampsia may not apply in pregnancies with chronic hypertension. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the aspirin effect in subgroups defined according to maternal characteristics and obstetrical history. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

Genetic determinants of antithyroid drug-induced agranulocytosis by human leukocyte antigen genotyping and genome-wide association study

PubMed Central

Chen, Pei-Lung; Shih, Shyang-Rong; Wang, Pei-Wen; Lin, Ying-Chao; Chu, Chen-Chung; Lin, Jung-Hsin; Chen, Szu-Chi; Chang, Ching-Chung; Huang, Tien-Shang; Tsai, Keh Sung; Tseng, Fen-Yu; Wang, Chih-Yuan; Lu, Jin-Ying; Chiu, Wei-Yih; Chang, Chien-Ching; Chen, Yu-Hsuan; Chen, Yuan-Tsong; Fann, Cathy Shen-Jang; Yang, Wei-Shiung; Chang, Tien-Chun

2015-01-01

Graves' disease is the leading cause of hyperthyroidism affecting 1.0–1.6% of the population. Antithyroid drugs are the treatment cornerstone, but may cause life-threatening agranulocytosis. Here we conduct a two-stage association study on two separate subject sets (in total 42 agranulocytosis cases and 1,208 Graves' disease controls), using direct human leukocyte antigen genotyping and SNP-based genome-wide association study. We demonstrate HLA-B*38:02 (Armitage trend Pcombined=6.75 × 10−32) and HLA-DRB1*08:03 (Pcombined=1.83 × 10−9) as independent susceptibility loci. The genome-wide association study identifies the same signals. Estimated odds ratios for these two loci comparing effective allele carriers to non-carriers are 21.48 (95% confidence interval=11.13–41.48) and 6.13 (95% confidence interval=3.28–11.46), respectively. Carrying both HLA-B*38:02 and HLA-DRB1*08:03 increases odds ratio to 48.41 (Pcombined=3.32 × 10−21, 95% confidence interval=21.66–108.22). Our results could be useful for antithyroid-induced agranulocytosis and potentially for agranulocytosis caused by other chemicals. PMID:26151496

Genetic determinants of antithyroid drug-induced agranulocytosis by human leukocyte antigen genotyping and genome-wide association study.

PubMed

Chen, Pei-Lung; Shih, Shyang-Rong; Wang, Pei-Wen; Lin, Ying-Chao; Chu, Chen-Chung; Lin, Jung-Hsin; Chen, Szu-Chi; Chang, Ching-Chung; Huang, Tien-Shang; Tsai, Keh Sung; Tseng, Fen-Yu; Wang, Chih-Yuan; Lu, Jin-Ying; Chiu, Wei-Yih; Chang, Chien-Ching; Chen, Yu-Hsuan; Chen, Yuan-Tsong; Fann, Cathy Shen-Jang; Yang, Wei-Shiung; Chang, Tien-Chun

2015-07-07

Graves' disease is the leading cause of hyperthyroidism affecting 1.0-1.6% of the population. Antithyroid drugs are the treatment cornerstone, but may cause life-threatening agranulocytosis. Here we conduct a two-stage association study on two separate subject sets (in total 42 agranulocytosis cases and 1,208 Graves' disease controls), using direct human leukocyte antigen genotyping and SNP-based genome-wide association study. We demonstrate HLA-B*38:02 (Armitage trend Pcombined=6.75 × 10(-32)) and HLA-DRB1*08:03 (Pcombined=1.83 × 10(-9)) as independent susceptibility loci. The genome-wide association study identifies the same signals. Estimated odds ratios for these two loci comparing effective allele carriers to non-carriers are 21.48 (95% confidence interval=11.13-41.48) and 6.13 (95% confidence interval=3.28-11.46), respectively. Carrying both HLA-B*38:02 and HLA-DRB1*08:03 increases odds ratio to 48.41 (Pcombined=3.32 × 10(-21), 95% confidence interval=21.66-108.22). Our results could be useful for antithyroid-induced agranulocytosis and potentially for agranulocytosis caused by other chemicals.

Retained asymptomatic third molars and risk for second molar pathology.

PubMed

Nunn, M E; Fish, M D; Garcia, R I; Kaye, E K; Figueroa, R; Gohel, A; Ito, M; Lee, H J; Williams, D E; Miyamoto, T

2013-12-01

Prophylactic extraction of unerupted asymptomatic third molars is the most common oral surgery procedure in the United States. However, limited evidence exists to justify its costs and associated morbidity. We analyzed data collected over 25 years from 416 adult men enrolled in the Veterans Affairs Dental Longitudinal Study to evaluate the association of retained asymptomatic third molars with risk of adjacent second molar pathology (caries and/or periodontitis), based on third molar status (i.e., absent, erupted, or unerupted). Unerupted molars were further categorized as either "soft tissue" or "bony" impacted. We found that the lowest prevalence and incidence of second molar pathology occurred when the adjacent third molar was absent. The presence of a third molar that was soft tissue impacted increased the risk of incident second molar pathology 4.88-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.62, 9.08). Having an erupted or "bony" impacted third molar increased the risk of incident second molar pathology by 1.74 (95% confidence interval: 1.34, 2.25) and 2.16 (95% confidence interval: 1.56, 2.99), respectively. The retention of third molars is associated with increased risk of second molar pathology in middle-aged and older adult men.

Retained Asymptomatic Third Molars and Risk for Second Molar Pathology

PubMed Central

Nunn, M.E.; Fish, M.D.; Garcia, R.I.; Kaye, E.K.; Figueroa, R.; Gohel, A.; Ito, M.; Lee, H.J.; Williams, D.E.; Miyamoto, T.

2013-01-01

Prophylactic extraction of unerupted asymptomatic third molars is the most common oral surgery procedure in the United States. However, limited evidence exists to justify its costs and associated morbidity. We analyzed data collected over 25 years from 416 adult men enrolled in the Veterans Affairs Dental Longitudinal Study to evaluate the association of retained asymptomatic third molars with risk of adjacent second molar pathology (caries and/or periodontitis), based on third molar status (i.e., absent, erupted, or unerupted). Unerupted molars were further categorized as either “soft tissue” or “bony” impacted. We found that the lowest prevalence and incidence of second molar pathology occurred when the adjacent third molar was absent. The presence of a third molar that was soft tissue impacted increased the risk of incident second molar pathology 4.88-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.62, 9.08). Having an erupted or “bony” impacted third molar increased the risk of incident second molar pathology by 1.74 (95% confidence interval: 1.34, 2.25) and 2.16 (95% confidence interval: 1.56, 2.99), respectively. The retention of third molars is associated with increased risk of second molar pathology in middle-aged and older adult men. PMID:24132082

Diesel exhaust, diesel fumes, and laryngeal cancer.

PubMed

Muscat, J E; Wynder, E L

1995-03-01

A hospital-based, case-control study of 235 male patients with laryngeal cancer and 205 male control patients was conducted to determine the effects of exposure to diesel engine exhaust and diesel fumes and the risk of laryngeal cancer. All patients were interviewed directly in the hospital with a standardized questionnaire that gathered information on smoking habits, alcohol consumption, employment history, and occupational exposures. Occupations that involve substantial exposure to diesel engine exhaust include mainly truck drivers, as well as mine workers, firefighters, and railroad workers. The odds ratio for laryngeal cancer associated with these occupations was 0.96 (95% confidence interval, 0.5 to 1.8). The odds ratio for self-reported exposure to diesel exhaust was 1.47 (95% confidence interval, 0.5 to 4.1). An elevated risk was found for self-reported exposure to diesel fumes (odds ratio, 6.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.8 to 22.6). No association was observed between jobs that entail exposure to diesel fumes, such as automobile mechanics, and the risk of laryngeal cancer. These results show that diesel engine exhaust is unrelated to laryngeal cancer risk. The different findings for self-reported diesel fumes and occupations that involve exposure to diesel fumes could reflect a recall bias.

Does blood transfusion affect intermediate survival after coronary artery bypass surgery?

PubMed

Mikkola, R; Heikkinen, J; Lahtinen, J; Paone, R; Juvonen, T; Biancari, F

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of transfusion of blood products on intermediate outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery. Complete data on perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were available from 2001 patients who were operated at our institution. Transfusion of any blood product (relative risk = 1.678, 95% confidence interval = 1.087-2.590) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The additive effect of each blood product on all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.401, 95% confidence interval = 1.203-1.630) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 1.553, 95% confidence interval = 1.273-1.895) was evident when the sum of each blood product was included in the regression models. However, when single blood products were included in the regression model, transfusion of fresh frozen plasma/Octaplas® was the only blood product associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.692, 95% confidence interval = 1.222-2.344) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 2.125, 95% confidence interval = 1.414-3.194). The effect of blood product transfusion was particularly evident during the first three postoperative months. Since follow-up was truncated at 3 months, transfusion of any blood product was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 2.998, 95% confidence interval = 1.053-0.537). Analysis of patients who survived or had at least 3 months of potential follow-up showed that transfusion of any blood product was not associated with a significantly increased risk of intermediate all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.430, 95% confidence interval = 0.880-2.323). Transfusion of any blood product is associated with a significant risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery. Such a risk seems to be limited to the early postoperative period and diminishes later on. Among blood products, perioperative use of fresh frozen plasma or Octaplas seems to be the main determinant of mortality.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Ten studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0. 90); and a trend to reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.00). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0. 12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2002-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi/GBM GRB time-resolved spectral catalog (Yu+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-F.; Preece, R. D.; Greiner, J.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Briggs, M. S.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V.; Goldstein, A.; von Kienlin; A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Rau, A.; Roberts, O. J.; Veres, P.; Wilson-Hodge, C.; Zhang, B.-B.; van Eerten, H. J.

2016-01-01

Time-resolved spectral analysis results of BEST models: for each spectrum GRB name using the Fermi GBM trigger designation, spectrum number within individual burst, start time Tstart and end time Tstop for the time bin, BEST model, best-fit parameters of the BEST model, value of CSTAT per degrees of freedom, 10keV-1MeV photon and energy flux are given. Ep evolutionary trends: for each burst GRB name, number of spectra with Ep, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep_ and photon flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep and energy flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Ep and time and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by computer for 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by human eyes are given. (2 data files).

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landman, Drew; Toro, Kenneth G.; Commo, Sean A.; Lynn, Keith C.

2014-01-01

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities: retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Ni, Michael Y; Chan, Brandford H Y; Leung, Gabriel M; Lau, Eric H Y; Pang, Herbert

2014-12-16

To estimate the transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities and to identify associated risk factors. Retrospective cohort study. Social media (YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram). David Beckham, Cristiano Ronaldo, Benedict Cumberbatch, Stephen Hawking, Mark Zuckerberg, Oprah Winfrey, Homer Simpson, and Kermit the Frog were defined as index cases. We included contacts up to the fifth generation seeded from each index case and enrolled a total of 99 participants into the cohort. Basic reproduction number R0, serial interval of accepting the challenge, and odds ratios of associated risk factors based on fully observed nomination chains; R0 is a measure of transmissibility and is defined as the number of secondary cases generated by a single index in a fully susceptible population. Serial interval is the duration between onset of a primary case and onset of its secondary cases. Based on the empirical data and assuming a branching process we estimated a mean R0 of 1.43 (95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.65) and a mean serial interval for accepting the challenge of 2.1 days (median 1 day). Higher log (base 10) net worth of the participants was positively associated with transmission (odds ratio 1.63, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.50), adjusting for age and sex. The Ice Bucket Challenge was moderately transmissible among a group of globally influential celebrities, in the range of the pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza. The challenge was more likely to be spread by richer celebrities, perhaps in part reflecting greater social influence. © Ni et al 2014.

Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

PubMed

Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

2014-01-01

Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Polyunsaturated fatty acid interactions and breast cancer incidence: a population-based case-control study on Long Island, New York.

PubMed

Khankari, Nikhil K; Bradshaw, Patrick T; Steck, Susan E; He, Ka; Olshan, Andrew F; Shen, Jing; Ahn, Jiyoung; Chen, Yu; Ahsan, Habibul; Terry, Mary Beth; Teitelbaum, Susan L; Neugut, Alfred I; Santella, Regina M; Gammon, Marilie D

2015-12-01

Experimental studies demonstrate that ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) inhibit inflammatory eicosanoids generated by ω-6 PUFAs. Epidemiologic studies on dietary ω-3 PUFA intake show consistent inverse associations with breast cancer incidence among Asian populations, where ω-3, relative to ω-6, intake is high. In contrast, associations are inconsistent among Western populations, where intake of ω-3, relative to ω-6, is low. We hypothesized that examining interactions between ω-3 and ω-6 would help elucidate the PUFA-breast cancer association in the United States. In a Long Island, New York, population-based study of 1463 breast cancer cases and 1500 controls, we estimated multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using unconditional logistic regression to examine interactions between ω-3 and ω-6 intake. We observed a super-additive interaction (relative excess risk due to interaction = 0.41; 95% confidence interval = 0.06-0.76) between ω-3 and ω-6 intake in association with breast cancer incidence, although the CIs for the joint exposure of low ω-3/high ω-6 compared to high ω-3/low ω-6 intake were wide (odds ratio = 1.20; 95% confidence interval = 0.85-1.69). Breast cancer risk reduction may be possible for U.S. women with dietary consumption of higher ω-3, which has anti-inflammatory properties, in concert with lower ω-6, which induces inflammation. Replication from future U.S.-based investigations is needed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Making physiology learning memorable: a mobile phone-assisted case-based instructional strategy.

PubMed

Kukolja Taradi, S; Taradi, M

2016-09-01

The goal of the present study was to determine whether an active learning/teaching strategy facilitated with mobile technologies can improve students' levels of memory retention of key physiological concepts. We used a quasiexperimental pretest/posttest nonequivalent group design to compare the test performances of second-year medical students (n = 311) taught by conventional didactic methods (traditional group) with those involved in a case-based problem-solving learning approach facilitated with mobile phones as web-based "clickers" (experimental group). Using their cell phones, students answered the same questions about the key physiological concepts three times. A pretest to determine their baseline knowledge was followed by two followup tests after 1 wk and 2 mo, respectively. The experimental group scored a mean of 93.2% correct items after 1 wk and 84.8% correct items after 2 mo [95% confidence intervals: (89.4, 97.0) and (79.4, 90.3), respectively]. Compared with their colleagues in the traditional group who scored 33.3% [95% confidence interval: (18.9, 47.8)] and 38.5% [95% confidence interval: (23.6, 53.4)] correct items, respectively, this was a significant increase of ∼50% (P < 0.0001). Furthermore, for the experimental group, Cohen's effect size (d) values of d = 1.67 (1-wk posttest) and d = 1.38 (2-mo posttest) suggested a very high practical significance. In contrast, in the traditional group, Cohen's d values of d = 0.04 (1-wk posttest) and d = 0.15 (2-mo posttest) assumed a very low practical significance. Copyright © 2016 The American Physiological Society.

Family environment, hobbies and habits as psychosocial predictors of survival for surgically treated patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Tominaga, K; Andow, J; Koyama, Y; Numao, S; Kurokawa, E; Ojima, M; Nagai, M

1998-01-01

Many psychosocial factors have been reported to influence the duration of survival of breast cancer patients. We have studied how family members, hobbies and habits of the patients may alter their psychosocial status. Female patients with surgically treated breast cancer diagnosed between 1986 and 1995 at the Tochigi Cancer Center Hospital, who provided information on the above-mentioned factors, were used. Their subsequent physical status was followed up in the outpatients clinic. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between the results of the factors examined and the duration of the patients' survival, adjusting for the patients' age, stage of disease at diagnosis and curability, as judged by the physician in charge after the treatment. The following factors were revealed to be significant with regard to the survival of surgically treated breast cancer patients: being a widow (hazard ratio 3.29; 95% confidence interval 1.32-8.20), having a hobby (hazard ratio 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.82), number of hobbies (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.41-1.00), number of female children (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.42-0.98), smoker (hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.02-4.26) and alcohol consumption (hazard ratio 0.10; 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.72). These results suggest that psychosocial factors, including the family environment, where patients receive emotional support from their spouse and children, hobbies and the patients' habits, may influence the duration of survival in surgically treated breast cancer patients.

Exact intervals and tests for median when one sample value possibly an outliner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, G. J.; Walsh, J. E.

1973-01-01

Available are independent observations (continuous data) that are believed to be a random sample. Desired are distribution-free confidence intervals and significance tests for the population median. However, there is the possibility that either the smallest or the largest observation is an outlier. Then, use of a procedure for rejection of an outlying observation might seem appropriate. Such a procedure would consider that two alternative situations are possible and would select one of them. Either (1) the n observations are truly a random sample, or (2) an outlier exists and its removal leaves a random sample of size n-1. For either situation, confidence intervals and tests are desired for the median of the population yielding the random sample. Unfortunately, satisfactory rejection procedures of a distribution-free nature do not seem to be available. Moreover, all rejection procedures impose undesirable conditional effects on the observations, and also, can select the wrong one of the two above situations. It is found that two-sided intervals and tests based on two symmetrically located order statistics (not the largest and smallest) of the n observations have this property.

Examining Differential Item Functioning: IRT-Based Detection in the Framework of Confirmatory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dimitrov, Dimiter M.

2017-01-01

This article offers an approach to examining differential item functioning (DIF) under its item response theory (IRT) treatment in the framework of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The approach is based on integrating IRT- and CFA-based testing of DIF and using bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals with a syntax code in Mplus.

Taichi exercise for self-rated sleep quality in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Du, Shizheng; Dong, Jianshu; Zhang, Heng; Jin, Shengji; Xu, Guihua; Liu, Zengxia; Chen, Lixia; Yin, Haiyan; Sun, Zhiling

2015-01-01

Self-reported sleep disorders are common in older adults, resulting in serious consequences. Non-pharmacological measures are important complementary interventions, among which Taichi exercise is a popular alternative. Some experiments have been performed; however, the effect of Taichi exercise in improving sleep quality in older people has yet to be validated by systematic review. Using systematic review and meta-analysis, this study aimed to examine the efficacy of Taichi exercise in promoting self-reported sleep quality in older adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies. 4 English databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL, and 4 Chinese databases: CBMdisc, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang database were searched through December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected eligible trials, conducted critical appraisal of the methodological quality by using the quality appraisal criteria for randomized controlled studies recommended by Cochrane Handbook. A standardized data form was used to extract information. Meta-analysis was performed. Five randomized controlled studies met inclusion criteria. All suffered from some methodological flaws. The results of this study showed that Taichi has large beneficial effect on sleep quality in older people, as indicated by decreases in the global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score [standardized mean difference=-0.87, 95% confidence intervals (95% confidence interval) (-1.25, -0.49)], as well as its sub-domains of subjective sleep quality [standardized mean difference=-0.83, 95% confidence interval (-1.08, -0.57)], sleep latency [standardized mean difference=-0.75, 95% confidence interval (-1.42, -0.07)], sleep duration [standardized mean difference=-0.55, 95% confidence interval (-0.90, -0.21)], habitual sleep efficiency [standardized mean difference=-0.49, 95% confidence interval (-0.74, -0.23)], sleep disturbance [standardized mean difference=-0.44, 95% confidence interval (-0.69, -0.19)], and daytime dysfunction [standardized mean difference=-0.34, 95% confidence interval (-0.59, -0.09)]. Daytime sleepiness improvement was also observed. Weak evidence shows that Taichi exercise has a beneficial effect in improving self-rated sleep quality for older adults, suggesting that Taichi could be an effective alternative and complementary approach to existing therapies for older people with sleep problems. More rigorous experimental studies are required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Previous treatment, sputum-smear nonconversion, and suburban living: The risk factors of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysians.

PubMed

Mohd Shariff, Noorsuzana; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Kamaludin, Fadzilah

2016-03-01

The number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients is increasing each year in many countries all around the globe. Malaysia has no exception in facing this burdensome health problem. We aimed to investigate the factors that contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysian tuberculosis patients. An unmatched case-control study was conducted among tuberculosis patients who received antituberculosis treatments from April 2013 until April 2014. Cases are those diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis patients clinically, radiologically, and/or bacteriologically, and who were confirmed to be resistant to both isoniazid and rifampicin through drug-sensitivity testing. On the other hand, pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were sensitive to all first-line antituberculosis drugs and were treated during the same time period served as controls. A total of 150 tuberculosis patients were studied, of which the susceptible cases were 120. Factors found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis are being Indian or Chinese (odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.04-9.68; and odds ratio 6.23, 95% confidence interval 2.24-17.35, respectively), unmarried (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.09), living in suburban areas (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.08-6.19), are noncompliant (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence interval 1.71-11.82), were treated previously (odds ratio 8.91, 95% confidence interval 3.66-21.67), and showed positive sputum smears at the 2nd (odds ratio 7.00, 95% confidence interval 2.46-19.89) and 6th months of treatment (odds ratio 17.96, 95% confidence interval 3.51-91.99). Living in suburban areas, positive sputum smears in the 2nd month of treatment, and was treated previously are factors that independently contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Those with positive smears in the second month of treatment, have a history of previous treatment, and live in suburban areas are found to have a higher probability of becoming multidrug resistant. The results presented here may facilitate improvements in the screening and detection process of drug-resistant patients in Malaysia in the future. Copyright © 2015 Asian-African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

PubMed

Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

2014-12-01

A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous improvement of patients' risk stratification before cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incidence, Determinants, and Outcomes of Coronary Perforation During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in the United Kingdom Between 2006 and 2013: An Analysis of 527 121 Cases From the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society Database.

PubMed

Kinnaird, Tim; Kwok, Chun Shing; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Ossei-Gerning, Nicholas; Ludman, Peter; deBelder, Mark; Anderson, Richard; Mamas, Mamas A

2016-08-01

As coronary perforation (CP) is a rare but serious complication of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) the current evidence base is limited to small series. Using a national PCI database, the incidence, predictors, and outcomes of CP as a complication of PCI were defined. Data were prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society data set on all PCI procedures performed in England and Wales between 2006 and 2013. Multivariate logistic regressions and propensity scores were used to identify predictors of CP and its association with outcomes. In total, 1762 CPs were recorded from 527 121 PCI procedures (incidence of 0.33%). Patients with CP were more often women or older, with a greater burden of comorbidity and underwent more complex PCI procedures. Factors predictive of CP included age per year (odds ratio [OR], 1.03; 95% confidence intervals, 1.02-1.03; P<0.001), previous coronary artery bypass graft (OR, 1.44; 95% confidence intervals, 1.17-1.77; P<0.001), left main (OR, 1.54; 95% confidence intervals, 1.21-1.96; P<0.001), use of rotational atherectomy (OR, 2.37; 95% confidence intervals, 1.80-3.11; P<0.001), and chronic total occlusions intervention (OR, 3.96; 95% confidence intervals, 3.28-4.78; P<0.001). Adjusted odds of adverse outcomes were higher in patients with CP for all major adverse coronary events, including stroke, bleeding, and mortality. Emergency surgery was required in 3% of cases. Predictors of mortality in patients with CP included age, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, renal disease, ventilatory support, use of circulatory support, glycoprotein inhibitor use, and stent type. Using a national PCI database for the first time, the incidence, predictors, and outcomes of CP were defined. Although CP as a complication of PCI occurred rarely, it was strongly associated with poor outcomes. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Etiological classifications of transient ischemic attacks: subtype classification by TOAST, CCS and ASCO--a pilot study.

PubMed

Amort, Margareth; Fluri, Felix; Weisskopf, Florian; Gensicke, Henrik; Bonati, Leo H; Lyrer, Philippe A; Engelter, Stefan T

2012-01-01

In patients with transient ischemic attacks (TIA), etiological classification systems are not well studied. The Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), the Causative Classification System (CCS), and the Atherosclerosis Small Vessel Disease Cardiac Source Other Cause (ASCO) classification may be useful to determine the underlying etiology. We aimed at testing the feasibility of each of the 3 systems. Furthermore, we studied and compared their prognostic usefulness. In a single-center TIA registry prospectively ascertained over 2 years, we applied 3 etiological classification systems. We compared the distribution of underlying etiologies, the rates of patients with determined versus undetermined etiology, and studied whether etiological subtyping distinguished TIA patients with versus without subsequent stroke or TIA within 3 months. The 3 systems were applicable in all 248 patients. A determined etiology with the highest level of causality was assigned similarly often with TOAST (35.9%), CCS (34.3%), and ASCO (38.7%). However, the frequency of undetermined causes differed significantly between the classification systems and was lowest for ASCO (TOAST: 46.4%; CCS: 37.5%; ASCO: 18.5%; p < 0.001). In TOAST, CCS, and ASCO, cardioembolism (19.4/14.5/18.5%) was the most common etiology, followed by atherosclerosis (11.7/12.9/14.5%). At 3 months, 33 patients (13.3%, 95% confidence interval 9.3-18.2%) had recurrent cerebral ischemic events. These were strokes in 13 patients (5.2%; 95% confidence interval 2.8-8.8%) and TIAs in 20 patients (8.1%, 95% confidence interval 5.0-12.2%). Patients with a determined etiology (high level of causality) had higher rates of subsequent strokes than those without a determined etiology [TOAST: 6.7% (95% confidence interval 2.5-14.1%) vs. 4.4% (95% confidence interval 1.8-8.9%); CSS: 9.3% (95% confidence interval 4.1-17.5%) vs. 3.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0-7.1%); ASCO: 9.4% (95% confidence interval 4.4-17.1%) vs. 2.6% (95% confidence interval 0.7-6.6%)]. However, this difference was only significant in the ASCO classification (p = 0.036). Using ASCO, there was neither an increase in risk of subsequent stroke among patients with incomplete diagnostic workup (at least one subtype scored 9) compared with patients with adequate workup (no subtype scored 9), nor among patients with multiple causes compared with patients with a single cause. In TIA patients, all etiological classification systems provided a similar distribution of underlying etiologies. The increase in stroke risk in TIA patients with determined versus undetermined etiology was most evident using the ASCO classification. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

In-Flight Pitot-Static Calibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, John V. (Inventor); Cunningham, Kevin (Inventor)

2016-01-01

A GPS-based pitot-static calibration system uses global output-error optimization. High data rate measurements of static and total pressure, ambient air conditions, and GPS-based ground speed measurements are used to compute pitot-static pressure errors over a range of airspeed. System identification methods rapidly compute optimal pressure error models with defined confidence intervals.

Refusal bias in HIV prevalence estimates from nationally representative seroprevalence surveys.

PubMed

Reniers, Georges; Eaton, Jeffrey

2009-03-13

To assess the relationship between prior knowledge of one's HIV status and the likelihood to refuse HIV testing in populations-based surveys and explore its potential for producing bias in HIV prevalence estimates. Using longitudinal survey data from Malawi, we estimate the relationship between prior knowledge of HIV-positive status and subsequent refusal of an HIV test. We use that parameter to develop a heuristic model of refusal bias that is applied to six Demographic and Health Surveys, in which refusal by HIV status is not observed. The model only adjusts for refusal bias conditional on a completed interview. Ecologically, HIV prevalence, prior testing rates and refusal for HIV testing are highly correlated. Malawian data further suggest that amongst individuals who know their status, HIV-positive individuals are 4.62 (95% confidence interval, 2.60-8.21) times more likely to refuse testing than HIV-negative ones. On the basis of that parameter and other inputs from the Demographic and Health Surveys, our model predicts downward bias in national HIV prevalence estimates ranging from 1.5% (95% confidence interval, 0.7-2.9) for Senegal to 13.3% (95% confidence interval, 7.2-19.6) for Malawi. In absolute terms, bias in HIV prevalence estimates is negligible for Senegal but 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 0.8-2.3) percentage points for Malawi. Downward bias is more severe in urban populations. Because refusal rates are higher in men, seroprevalence surveys also tend to overestimate the female-to-male ratio of infections. Prior knowledge of HIV status informs decisions to participate in seroprevalence surveys. Informed refusals may produce bias in estimates of HIV prevalence and the sex ratio of infections.

Excessive work and risk of haemorrhagic stroke: a nationwide case-control study.

PubMed

Kim, Beom Joon; Lee, Seung-Hoon; Ryu, Wi-Sun; Kim, Chi Kyung; Chung, Jong-Won; Kim, Dohoung; Park, Hong-Kyun; Bae, Hee-Joon; Park, Byung-Joo; Yoon, Byung-Woo

2013-10-01

Adverse effect of excessive work on health has been suggested previously, but it was not documented in cerebrovascular diseases. The authors investigated whether excessive working conditions would associate with increased risk of haemorrhagic stroke. A nationwide matched case-control study database, which contains 940 cases of incident haemorrhagic stroke (498 intracerebral haemorrhages and 442 sub-arachnoid haemorrhages) with 1880 gender- and age- (± 5-year) matched controls, was analysed. Work-related information based on the regular job situation, including type of occupation, regular working time, duration of strenuous activity during regular work and shift work, was gathered through face-to-face interviews. Conditional logistic regression analyses were used for the multivariable analyses. Compared with white-collar workers, blue-collar workers had a higher risk for haemorrhagic stroke (odds ratio, 1.33 [95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.66]). Longer regular working time was associated with increased risk of haemorrhagic stroke [odds ratio, 1.38 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.81) for 8-12 h/day; odds ratio, 1.95 (95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.86) for ≥ 13 h/day; compared with ≤ 4 h/day]. Exposure to ≥ 8 h/week of strenuous activity also associated haemorrhagic stroke risk [odds ratio, 1.61 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-2.05); compared with no strenuous activity]. Shift work was not associated with haemorrhagic stroke (P = 0.98). Positive associations between working condition indices and haemorrhagic stroke risk were consistent regardless of haemorrhagic stroke sub-types and current employment status. Blue-collar occupation, longer regular working time and extended duration of strenuous activity during work may relate to an increased risk of haemorrhagic stroke. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2012 World Stroke Organization.

Education level and inequalities in stroke reperfusion therapy: observations in the Swedish stroke register.

PubMed

Stecksén, Anna; Glader, Eva-Lotta; Asplund, Kjell; Norrving, Bo; Eriksson, Marie

2014-09-01

Previous studies have revealed inequalities in stroke treatment based on demographics, hospital type, and region. We used the Swedish Stroke Register (Riksstroke) to test whether patient education level is associated with reperfusion (either or both of thrombolysis and thrombectomy) treatment. We included 85 885 patients with ischemic stroke aged 18 to 80 years registered in Riksstroke between 2003 and 2009. Education level was retrieved from Statistics Sweden, and thrombolysis, thrombectomy, patient, and hospital data were obtained from Riksstroke. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyze the association between reperfusion therapy and patient education. A total of 3649 (4.2%) of the patients received reperfusion therapy. University-educated patients were more likely to be treated (5.5%) than patients with secondary (4.6%) or primary education (3.6%; P<0.001). The inequality associated with education was still present after adjustment for patient characteristics; university education odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.26 and secondary education odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.17 compared with primary education. Higher hospital specialization level was also associated with higher reperfusion levels (P<0.001). In stratified multivariable analyses by hospital type, significant treatment differences by education level existed only among large nonuniversity hospitals (university education odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.40; secondary education odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.29). We demonstrated a social stratification in reperfusion, partly explained by patient characteristics and the local hospital specialization level. Further studies should address treatment delays, stroke knowledge, and means to improve reperfusion implementation in less specialized hospitals. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Heritability of and mortality prediction with a longevity phenotype: the healthy aging index.

PubMed

Sanders, Jason L; Minster, Ryan L; Barmada, M Michael; Matteini, Amy M; Boudreau, Robert M; Christensen, Kaare; Mayeux, Richard; Borecki, Ingrid B; Zhang, Qunyuan; Perls, Thomas; Newman, Anne B

2014-04-01

Longevity-associated genes may modulate risk for age-related diseases and survival. The Healthy Aging Index (HAI) may be a subphenotype of longevity, which can be constructed in many studies for genetic analysis. We investigated the HAI's association with survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study and heritability in the Long Life Family Study. The HAI includes systolic blood pressure, pulmonary vital capacity, creatinine, fasting glucose, and Modified Mini-Mental Status Examination score, each scored 0, 1, or 2 using approximate tertiles and summed from 0 (healthy) to 10 (unhealthy). In Cardiovascular Health Study, the association with mortality and accuracy predicting death were determined with Cox proportional hazards analysis and c-statistics, respectively. In Long Life Family Study, heritability was determined with a variance component-based family analysis using a polygenic model. Cardiovascular Health Study participants with unhealthier index scores (7-10) had 2.62-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.22, 3.10) greater mortality than participants with healthier scores (0-2). The HAI alone predicted death moderately well (c-statistic = 0.643, 95% confidence interval: 0.626, 0.661, p < .0001) and slightly worse than age alone (c-statistic = 0.700, 95% confidence interval: 0.684, 0.717, p < .0001; p < .0001 for comparison of c-statistics). Prediction increased significantly with adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and clinical comorbidities (c-statistic = 0.780, 95% confidence interval: 0.765, 0.794, p < .0001). In Long Life Family Study, the heritability of the HAI was 0.295 (p < .0001) overall, 0.387 (p < .0001) in probands, and 0.238 (p = .0004) in offspring. The HAI should be investigated further as a candidate phenotype for uncovering longevity-associated genes in humans.

Heritability of and Mortality Prediction With a Longevity Phenotype: The Healthy Aging Index

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background. Longevity-associated genes may modulate risk for age-related diseases and survival. The Healthy Aging Index (HAI) may be a subphenotype of longevity, which can be constructed in many studies for genetic analysis. We investigated the HAI’s association with survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study and heritability in the Long Life Family Study. Methods. The HAI includes systolic blood pressure, pulmonary vital capacity, creatinine, fasting glucose, and Modified Mini-Mental Status Examination score, each scored 0, 1, or 2 using approximate tertiles and summed from 0 (healthy) to 10 (unhealthy). In Cardiovascular Health Study, the association with mortality and accuracy predicting death were determined with Cox proportional hazards analysis and c-statistics, respectively. In Long Life Family Study, heritability was determined with a variance component–based family analysis using a polygenic model. Results. Cardiovascular Health Study participants with unhealthier index scores (7–10) had 2.62-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.22, 3.10) greater mortality than participants with healthier scores (0–2). The HAI alone predicted death moderately well (c-statistic = 0.643, 95% confidence interval: 0.626, 0.661, p < .0001) and slightly worse than age alone (c-statistic = 0.700, 95% confidence interval: 0.684, 0.717, p < .0001; p < .0001 for comparison of c-statistics). Prediction increased significantly with adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and clinical comorbidities (c-statistic = 0.780, 95% confidence interval: 0.765, 0.794, p < .0001). In Long Life Family Study, the heritability of the HAI was 0.295 (p < .0001) overall, 0.387 (p < .0001) in probands, and 0.238 (p = .0004) in offspring. Conclusion. The HAI should be investigated further as a candidate phenotype for uncovering longevity-associated genes in humans. PMID:23913930

Malignant transformation of Taiwanese patients with oral leukoplakia: A nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wang, Tung-Yuan; Chiu, Yu-Wei; Chen, Yi-Tzu; Wang, Yu-Hsun; Yu, Hui-Chieh; Yu, Chuan-Hang; Chang, Yu-Chao

2018-05-01

Oral leukoplakia (OL) is one of the clinically diagnosed oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) with an increased risk of oral cancer development. In this study, we investigated the malignant transformation of OL in Taiwanese population. A retrospective cohort study was analyzed from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. A comparison cohort was randomly frequency-matched with the OL cohort according to age, sex, and index year. Oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) and oral lichen planus (OLP) were further stratified to evaluate the possible synergistic effects for OL-associated malignant transformation. In this cohort, 102 (5.374%) of 1898 OL patients were observed to transform into oral cancer. The malignant transformation rate was 26.40-fold in the OL cohort than in the comparison cohort after adjustment (95% confidence intervals 18.46-37.77). To further stratify with OSF and OLP, OL with OSF (58.38; 95% confidence intervals 34.61-98.50) and OL with OLP (36.88; 95% confidence intervals 8.90-152.78) had higher risk of malignant transformation rate than OL alone (27.01; 95% confidence intervals 18.91-38.59). The Kaplan-Meier plot revealed the free of malignant transformation rate was significant over the 13 years follow-up period (log-rank test, p < 0.001). OL patients exhibited a significantly higher risk of malignant transformation than those without OL. In addition, both OSF and OLP could enhance malignant transformation in patients with OL. However, further studies are required to identify the histopathological and clinical parameters in the pathogenesis of malignant transformation among OPMDs. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Daytime Napping and the Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A 13-Year Follow-up of a British Population

PubMed Central

Leng, Yue; Wainwright, Nick W. J.; Cappuccio, Francesco P.; Surtees, Paul G.; Hayat, Shabina; Luben, Robert; Brayne, Carol; Khaw, Kay-Tee

2014-01-01

Epidemiologic studies have reported conflicting results on the relationship between daytime napping and mortality risk, and there are few data on the potential association in the British population. We investigated the associations between daytime napping and all-cause or cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk study, a British population-based cohort study. Among the 16,374 men and women who answered questions on napping habits between 1998 and 2000, a total of 3,251 died during the 13-year follow-up. Daytime napping was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (for napping less than 1 hour per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.27; for napping 1 hour or longer per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.68), independent of age, sex, social class, educational level, marital status, employment status, body mass index, physical activity level, smoking status, alcohol intake, depression, self-reported general health, use of hypnotic drugs or other medications, time spent in bed at night, and presence of preexisting health conditions. This association was more pronounced for death from respiratory diseases (for napping less than 1 hour, hazard ratio = 1.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 2.05; for napping 1 hour or more, hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 4.86) and in individuals 65 years of age or younger. Excessive daytime napping might be a useful marker of underlying health risk, particularly of respiratory problems, especially among those 65 years of age or younger. Further research is required to clarify the nature of the observed association. PMID:24685532

Daytime napping and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a 13-year follow-up of a British population.

PubMed

Leng, Yue; Wainwright, Nick W J; Cappuccio, Francesco P; Surtees, Paul G; Hayat, Shabina; Luben, Robert; Brayne, Carol; Khaw, Kay-Tee

2014-05-01

Epidemiologic studies have reported conflicting results on the relationship between daytime napping and mortality risk, and there are few data on the potential association in the British population. We investigated the associations between daytime napping and all-cause or cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk study, a British population-based cohort study. Among the 16,374 men and women who answered questions on napping habits between 1998 and 2000, a total of 3,251 died during the 13-year follow-up. Daytime napping was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (for napping less than 1 hour per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.27; for napping 1 hour or longer per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.68), independent of age, sex, social class, educational level, marital status, employment status, body mass index, physical activity level, smoking status, alcohol intake, depression, self-reported general health, use of hypnotic drugs or other medications, time spent in bed at night, and presence of preexisting health conditions. This association was more pronounced for death from respiratory diseases (for napping less than 1 hour, hazard ratio = 1.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 2.05; for napping 1 hour or more, hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 4.86) and in individuals 65 years of age or younger. Excessive daytime napping might be a useful marker of underlying health risk, particularly of respiratory problems, especially among those 65 years of age or younger. Further research is required to clarify the nature of the observed association.

[Association between chronic periodontitis and hyperlipidemia: a Meta-analysis based on observational studies].

PubMed

Lianhui, Yang; Meifei, Lian; Zhongyue, Hu; Yunzhi, Feng

2017-08-01

Objective The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between periodontitis and hyperlipidemia risks through Meta-analysis. Methods Two researchers conducted an electronic search on PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, CBM, CNKI, Wanfang and VIP databases established until July 2016 for observational studies on the association between periodontitis and hyperlipidemia. The language used was limited to Chinese and English. After data extraction and quality evaluation of included trials, Meta-analysis was conducted using the RevMan 5.3 software. The GRADE 3.6 software was used to evaluate the quality level of the evidence. Results Six case-control studies and one cohort study were included. The results of Meta-analysis showed that serum triglyceride (TG) in patients with periodontitis was significantly higher than that of the periodontal health group (MD=50.50, 95% confidence interval=39.57-61.42, P<0.000 01), as well as serum total cholesterol (TC) (MD=17.54, 95% confidence interval=10.91-24.18, P<0.000 01). Furthermore, the risks of TG and TC in the serum of patients with chronic periodontitis were 4.73 times (OR=4.73, 95% confidence interval=2.74-8.17, P<0.000 01) and 3.62 times (OR=3.62, 95% confidence interval=2.18-6.03, P<0.000 01) of that of periodontal healthy patients. No significant difference was observed between the group with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and that with low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Conclusion Current evidence indicates that a correlation exists between chronic periodontitis and hyperlipidemia, and chronic periodontitis is an independent risk factor for hyperlipidemia, especially for TC and TG in serum.

Clinical Outcomes of Transplanted Modified Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Stroke: A Phase 1/2a Study.

PubMed

Steinberg, Gary K; Kondziolka, Douglas; Wechsler, Lawrence R; Lunsford, L Dade; Coburn, Maria L; Billigen, Julia B; Kim, Anthony S; Johnson, Jeremiah N; Bates, Damien; King, Bill; Case, Casey; McGrogan, Michael; Yankee, Ernest W; Schwartz, Neil E

2016-07-01

Preclinical data suggest that cell-based therapies have the potential to improve stroke outcomes. Eighteen patients with stable, chronic stroke were enrolled in a 2-year, open-label, single-arm study to evaluate the safety and clinical outcomes of surgical transplantation of modified bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (SB623). All patients in the safety population (N=18) experienced at least 1 treatment-emergent adverse event. Six patients experienced 6 serious treatment-emergent adverse events; 2 were probably or definitely related to surgical procedure; none were related to cell treatment. All serious treatment-emergent adverse events resolved without sequelae. There were no dose-limiting toxicities or deaths. Sixteen patients completed 12 months of follow-up at the time of this analysis. Significant improvement from baseline (mean) was reported for: (1) European Stroke Scale: mean increase 6.88 (95% confidence interval, 3.5-10.3; P<0.001), (2) National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: mean decrease 2.00 (95% confidence interval, -2.7 to -1.3; P<0.001), (3) Fugl-Meyer total score: mean increase 19.20 (95% confidence interval, 11.4-27.0; P<0.001), and (4) Fugl-Meyer motor function total score: mean increase 11.40 (95% confidence interval, 4.6-18.2; P<0.001). No changes were observed in modified Rankin Scale. The area of magnetic resonance T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery signal change in the ipsilateral cortex 1 week after implantation significantly correlated with clinical improvement at 12 months (P<0.001 for European Stroke Scale). In this interim report, SB623 cells were safe and associated with improvement in clinical outcome end points at 12 months. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01287936. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Association of Parental Hypertension With Arterial Stiffness in Nonhypertensive Offspring: The Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Andersson, Charlotte; Quiroz, Rene; Enserro, Danielle; Larson, Martin G; Hamburg, Naomi M; Vita, Joseph A; Levy, Daniel; Benjamin, Emelia J; Mitchell, Gary F; Vasan, Ramachandran S

2016-09-01

High arterial stiffness seems to be causally involved in the pathogenesis of hypertension. We tested the hypothesis that offspring of parents with hypertension may display higher arterial stiffness before clinically manifest hypertension, given that hypertension is a heritable condition. We compared arterial tonometry measures in a sample of 1564 nonhypertensive Framingham Heart Study third-generation cohort participants (mean age: 38 years; 55% women) whose parents were enrolled in the Framingham Offspring Study. A total of 468, 715, and 381 participants had 0 (referent), 1, and 2 parents with hypertension. Parental hypertension was associated with greater offspring mean arterial pressure (multivariable-adjusted estimate=2.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-3.9, and 4.2 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-5.5, for 1 and 2 parents with hypertension, respectively; P<0.001 for both) and with greater forward pressure wave amplitude (1.6 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-2.7, and 1.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-3.2, for 1 and 2 parents with hypertension, respectively; P=0.003 for both). Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and augmentation index displayed similar dose-dependent relations with parental hypertension in sex-, age-, and height-adjusted models, but associations were attenuated on further adjustment. Offspring with at least 1 parent in the upper quartile of augmentation index and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity had significantly higher values themselves (P≤0.02). In conclusion, in this community-based sample of young, nonhypertensive adults, we observed greater arterial stiffness in offspring of parents with hypertension. These observations are consistent with higher vascular stiffness at an early stage in the pathogenesis of hypertension. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Coffee Consumption and Coronary Artery Calcium Score: Cross-Sectional Results of ELSA-Brasil (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health).

PubMed

Miranda, Andreia M; Steluti, Josiane; Goulart, Alessandra C; Benseñor, Isabela M; Lotufo, Paulo A; Marchioni, Dirce M

2018-03-24

Available evidence for the relationship between coffee intake and subclinical atherosclerosis is limited and inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate the association between coffee consumption and coronary artery calcium (CAC) in ELSA-Brasil (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health). This cross-sectional study is based on baseline data from participants of the ELSA-Brasil cohort. Only participants living in São Paulo, Brazil, who underwent a CAC measurement (n=4426) were included. Coffee consumption was collected using a food frequency questionnaire. CAC was detected with computed tomography and expressed as Agatston units. CAC was further categorized as an Agatson score ≥100 (CAC ≥100). In multiple logistic regression analysis considering intake of coffee and smoking status interaction, significant inverse associations were observed between coffee consumption (>3 cups/d) and CAC≥100 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.85 [95% confidence interval, 0.58-1.24] for ≤1 cup/d; OR: 0.73 [95% confidence interval, 0.51-1.05] for 1-3 cups/d; OR: 0.33 [95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.65] for >3 cups/d). Moreover, there was a statistically significant interaction effect for coffee consumption and smoking status ( P =0.028 for interaction). After stratification by smoking status, the analysis revealed a lower OR of coronary calcification in never smokers drinking >3 cups/d (OR: 0.37 [95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.91]), whereas among current and former smokers, the intake of coffee was not significantly associated with coronary calcification. Habitual consumption of >3 cups/d of coffee decreased odds of subclinical atherosclerosis among never smokers. The consumption of coffee could exert a potential beneficial effect against coronary calcification, particularly in nonsmokers. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Abnormal P-Wave Axis and Ischemic Stroke: The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities).

PubMed

Maheshwari, Ankit; Norby, Faye L; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Koene, Ryan J; Rooney, Mary R; O'Neal, Wesley T; Alonso, Alvaro; Chen, Lin Y

2017-08-01

Abnormal P-wave axis (aPWA) has been linked to incident atrial fibrillation and mortality; however, the relationship between aPWA and stroke has not been reported. We hypothesized that aPWA is associated with ischemic stroke independent of atrial fibrillation and other stroke risk factors and tested our hypothesis in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities), a community-based prospective cohort study. We included 15 102 participants (aged 54.2±5.7 years; 55.2% women; 26.5% blacks) who attended the baseline examination (1987-1989) and without prevalent stroke. We defined aPWA as any value outside 0 to 75° using 12-lead ECGs obtained during study visits. Each case of incident ischemic stroke was classified in accordance with criteria from the National Survey of Stroke by a computer algorithm and adjudicated by physician review. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of aPWA with stroke. During a mean follow-up of 20.2 years, there were 657 incident ischemic stroke cases. aPWA was independently associated with a 1.50-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.85) increased risk of ischemic stroke in the multivariable model that included atrial fibrillation. When subtyped, aPWA was associated with a 2.04-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.42-2.95) increased risk of cardioembolic stroke and a 1.32-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.71) increased risk of thrombotic stroke. aPWA is independently associated with ischemic stroke. This association seems to be stronger for cardioembolic strokes. Collectively, our findings suggest that alterations in atrial electric activation may predispose to cardiac thromboembolism independent of atrial fibrillation. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Association of Air Pollution Exposures With High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Particle Number: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Bell, Griffith; Mora, Samia; Greenland, Philip; Tsai, Michael; Gill, Ed; Kaufman, Joel D

2017-05-01

The relationship between air pollution and cardiovascular disease may be explained by changes in high-density lipoprotein (HDL). We examined the cross-sectional relationship between air pollution and both HDL cholesterol and HDL particle number in the MESA Air study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Air Pollution). Study participants were 6654 white, black, Hispanic, and Chinese men and women aged 45 to 84 years. We estimated individual residential ambient fine particulate pollution exposure (PM 2.5 ) and black carbon concentrations using a fine-scale likelihood-based spatiotemporal model and cohort-specific monitoring. Exposure periods were averaged to 12 months, 3 months, and 2 weeks prior to examination. HDL cholesterol and HDL particle number were measured in the year 2000 using the cholesterol oxidase method and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, respectively. We used multivariable linear regression to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and HDL measures. A 0.7×10 - 6 m - 1 higher exposure to black carbon (a marker of traffic-related pollution) averaged over a 1-year period was significantly associated with a lower HDL cholesterol (-1.68 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -2.86 to -0.50) and approached significance with HDL particle number (-0.55 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -1.13 to 0.03). In the 3-month averaging time period, a 5 μg/m 3 higher PM 2.5 was associated with lower HDL particle number (-0.64 μmol/L; 95% confidence interval, -1.01 to -0.26), but not HDL cholesterol (-0.05 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -0.82 to 0.71). These data are consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to air pollution is adversely associated with measures of HDL. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Increase of Stroke Incidence in Young Adults in a Middle-Income Country: A 10-Year Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Cabral, Norberto Luiz; Freire, Aracélli Tavares; Conforto, Adriana Bastos; Dos Santos, Nayara; Reis, Felipe Ibiapina; Nagel, Vivian; Guesser, Vanessa V; Safanelli, Juliana; Longo, Alexandre L

2017-11-01

The incidence of stroke is on the rise in young adults in high-income countries. However, there is a gap of knowledge about trends in stroke incidence in young adults from low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to measure trends in incidence of ischemic stroke (IS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (IH) in young people from 2005 to 2015 in Joinville, Brazil. We retrospectively ascertained all first-ever IS subtypes and IH that occurred in Joinville in the periods of 2005 to 2006, 2010 to 2011, and 2014 to 2015. Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios of all strokes, IS, and IH. We also compared the prevalence of risk factors and extension of diagnostic work-up across the 3 periods. For 10 years, we registered 2483 patients (7.5% aged <45 years). From 2005 to 2006 to 2014 to 2015, overall stroke incidence significantly increased by 62% (incidence rate ratios, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.40) in subjects <45 years and by 29% in those <55 years (incidence rate ratios, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.60). Incidence of IS increased by 66% (incidence rate ratios, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.54), but there was no significant change in incidence of IH in subjects <45 years. Smoking rates decreased by 71% (odds ratio, 0.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.68). Stroke incidence is rising in young adults in Joinville, Brazil, because of increase in rates of ischemic but not hemorrhagic strokes. We urgently need better policies of cardiovascular prevention in the young. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Estimating statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo efficiency-gain in the context of a correlated sampling Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy treatment planning with non-normal dose distribution.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Sampson, Andrew J; Deniz, Daniel; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Williamson, Jeffrey; Malusek, Alexandr

2012-01-01

Correlated sampling Monte Carlo methods can shorten computing times in brachytherapy treatment planning. Monte Carlo efficiency is typically estimated via efficiency gain, defined as the reduction in computing time by correlated sampling relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods when equal statistical uncertainties have been achieved. The determination of the efficiency gain uncertainty arising from random effects, however, is not a straightforward task specially when the error distribution is non-normal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the F distribution and standardized uncertainty propagation methods (widely used in metrology to estimate uncertainty of physical measurements) for predicting confidence intervals about efficiency gain estimates derived from single Monte Carlo runs using fixed-collision correlated sampling in a simplified brachytherapy geometry. A bootstrap based algorithm was used to simulate the probability distribution of the efficiency gain estimates and the shortest 95% confidence interval was estimated from this distribution. It was found that the corresponding relative uncertainty was as large as 37% for this particular problem. The uncertainty propagation framework predicted confidence intervals reasonably well; however its main disadvantage was that uncertainties of input quantities had to be calculated in a separate run via a Monte Carlo method. The F distribution noticeably underestimated the confidence interval. These discrepancies were influenced by several photons with large statistical weights which made extremely large contributions to the scored absorbed dose difference. The mechanism of acquiring high statistical weights in the fixed-collision correlated sampling method was explained and a mitigation strategy was proposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship between daily exposure to biomass fuel smoke and blood pressure in high-altitude Peru.

PubMed

Burroughs Peña, Melissa; Romero, Karina M; Velazquez, Eric J; Davila-Roman, Victor G; Gilman, Robert H; Wise, Robert A; Miranda, J Jaime; Checkley, William

2015-05-01

Household air pollution from biomass fuel use affects 3 billion people worldwide; however, few studies have examined the relationship between biomass fuel use and blood pressure. We sought to determine if daily biomass fuel use was associated with elevated blood pressure in high altitude Peru and if this relationship was affected by lung function. We analyzed baseline information from a population-based cohort study of adults aged ≥ 35 years in Puno, Peru. Daily biomass fuel use was self-reported. We used multivariable regression models to examine the relationship between daily exposure to biomass fuel smoke and blood pressure outcomes. Interactions with sex and quartiles of forced vital capacity were conducted to evaluate for effect modification. Data from 1004 individuals (mean age, 55.3 years; 51.7% women) were included. We found an association between biomass fuel use with both prehypertension (adjusted relative risk ratio, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-9.9) and hypertension (adjusted relative risk ratio, 3.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-7.0). Biomass fuel users had a higher systolic blood pressure (7.0 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 4.4-9.6) and a higher diastolic blood pressure (5.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 4.2-7.6) when compared with nonusers. We did not find interaction effects between daily biomass fuel use and sex or percent predicted forced vital capacity for either systolic blood pressure or diastolic blood pressure. Biomass fuel use was associated with a higher likelihood of having hypertension and higher blood pressure in Peru. Reducing exposure to household air pollution from biomass fuel use represents an opportunity for cardiovascular prevention. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Mobile phone use and the risk of skin cancer: a nationwide cohort study in Denmark.

PubMed

Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Friis, Søren; Johansen, Christoffer; Jensen, Allan; Frei, Patrizia; Kjaear, Susanne Krüger; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg; Schüz, Joachim

2013-07-15

The International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified radiofrequency radiation as possibly carcinogenic. Previous studies have focused on intracranial tumors, although the skin receives much radiation. In a nationwide cohort study, 355,701 private mobile phone subscribers in Denmark from 1987 to 1995 were followed up through 2007. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for melanoma, basal cell carcinoma, and squamous cell carcinoma by using Poisson regression models adjusted for age, calendar period, educational level, and income. Separate IRRs for head/neck tumors and torso/leg tumors were compared (IRR ratios) to further address potential confounders. We observed no overall increased risk for basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, or melanoma of the head and neck. After a follow-up period of at least 13 years, the IRRs for basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma remained near unity. Among men, the IRR for melanoma of the head and neck was 1.20 (95% confidence interval: 0.65, 2.22) after a minimum 13-year follow-up, whereas the corresponding IRR for the torso and legs was 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 1.47), yielding an IRR ratio of 1.04 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 2.00). A similar risk pattern was seen among women, though it was based on smaller numbers. In this large, population-based cohort study, little evidence of an increased skin cancer risk was observed among mobile phone users.

A Population-based Longitudinal Study on Work Environmental Factors and the Risk of Major Depressive Disorder

PubMed Central

Wang, JianLi; Patten, Scott B.; Currie, Shawn; Sareen, Jitender; Schmitz, Norbert

2012-01-01

To investigate the relation between work environmental factors and the risk of major depressive disorder (MDD) over 1 year, the authors conducted a population-based longitudinal study of randomly selected employees in Alberta, Canada (January 2008 to November 2011). Participants without a current or lifetime diagnosis of MDD at baseline (n = 2,752) were followed for 1 year. MDD was assessed using the World Health Organization’s Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Auto 2.1. The overall 1-year incidence of MDD was 3.6% (95% confidence interval: 2.8, 4.6); it was 2.9% (95% confidence interval: 1.9, 4.2) in men and 4.5% (95% confidence interval: 3.3, 6.2) in women. The relations between work environmental factors and MDD differed by sex. In men, high job strain increased the risk of MDD in those who worked 35–40 hours per week; job insecurity and family-to-work conflict were predictive of MDD. Women who worked 35–40 hours per week and reported job insecurity, a high effort-reward imbalance, and work-to-family conflict were at a higher risk of developing MDD. Job strain, effort-reward imbalance, job insecurity, and work-to-family conflicts are important risk factors for the onset of MDD and should be targets of primary prevention. However, these work environmental factors appear to operate differently in men and in women. PMID:22556191

Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

2014-01-01

Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of probands with focal epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.00–2.19) for generalized epilepsy and 2.6 (95% confidence interval 1.19–4.26) for focal epilepsy. Epilepsy incidence was greater in offspring of female probands than in offspring of male probands, and this maternal effect was restricted to offspring of probands with focal epilepsy. The results suggest that risks for epilepsies of unknown and prenatal/developmental cause may be influenced by shared genetic mechanisms. They also suggest that some of the genetic influences on generalized and focal epilepsies are distinct. However, the similar increase in risk for focal epilepsy among relatives of probands with either generalized (2.5-fold) or focal epilepsy (2.6-fold) may reflect some coexisting shared genetic influences. PMID:24468822

Joint distribution approaches to simultaneously quantifying benefit and risk.

PubMed

Shaffer, Michele L; Watterberg, Kristi L

2006-10-12

The benefit-risk ratio has been proposed to measure the tradeoff between benefits and risks of two therapies for a single binary measure of efficacy and a single adverse event. The ratio is calculated from the difference in risk and difference in benefit between therapies. Small sample sizes or expected differences in benefit or risk can lead to no solution or problematic solutions for confidence intervals. Alternatively, using the joint distribution of benefit and risk, confidence regions for the differences in risk and benefit can be constructed in the benefit-risk plane. The information in the joint distribution can be summarized by choosing regions of interest in this plane. Using Bayesian methodology provides a very flexible framework for summarizing information in the joint distribution. Data from a National Institute of Child Health & Human Development trial of hydrocortisone illustrate the construction of confidence regions and regions of interest in the benefit-risk plane, where benefit is survival without supplemental oxygen at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, and risk is gastrointestinal perforation. For the subgroup of infants exposed to chorioamnionitis the confidence interval based on the benefit-risk ratio is wide (Benefit-risk ratio: 1.52; 90% confidence interval: 0.23 to 5.25). Choosing regions of appreciable risk and acceptable risk in the benefit-risk plane confirms the uncertainty seen in the wide confidence interval for the benefit-risk ratio--there is a greater than 50% chance of falling into the region of acceptable risk--while visually allowing the uncertainty in risk and benefit to be shown separately. Applying Bayesian methodology, an incremental net health benefit analysis shows there is a 72% chance of having a positive incremental net benefit if hydrocortisone is used in place of placebo if one is willing to incur at most one gastrointestinal perforation for each additional infant that survives without supplemental oxygen. If the benefit-risk ratio is presented, the joint distribution of benefit and risk also should be shown. These regions avoid the ambiguity associated with collapsing benefit and risk to a single dimension. Bayesian methods allow even greater flexibility in simultaneously quantifying benefit and risk.

Fasting glucose levels, incident diabetes, subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in apparently healthy adults: A 12-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sitnik, Debora; Santos, Itamar S; Goulart, Alessandra C; Staniak, Henrique L; Manson, JoAnn E; Lotufo, Paulo A; Bensenor, Isabela M

2016-11-01

We aimed to study the association between fasting plasma glucose, diabetes incidence and cardiovascular burden after 10-12 years. We evaluated diabetes and cardiovascular events incidences, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores in ELSA-Brasil (the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) baseline (2008-2010) of 1536 adults without diabetes in 1998. We used regression models to estimate association with carotid intima-media thickness (in mm), coronary artery calcium scores (in Agatston points) and cardiovascular events according to fasting plasma glucose in 1998. Adjusted diabetes incidence rate was 9.8/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 7.7-13.6/1000 person-years). Incident diabetes was positively associated with higher fasting plasma glucose. Fasting plasma glucose levels 110-125 mg/dL were associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.028; 95% confidence interval: 0.003-0.053). Excluding those with incident diabetes, there was a borderline association between higher carotid intima-media thickness and fasting plasma glucose 110-125 mg/dL (β = 0.030; 95% confidence interval: -0.005 to 0.065). Incident diabetes was associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.034; 95% confidence interval: 0.015-0.053), coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 (odds ratio = 2.84; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-6.91) and the combined outcome of a coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 or incident cardiovascular event (odds ratio = 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-7.65). In conclusion, fasting plasma glucose in 1998 and incident diabetes were associated with higher cardiovascular burden. © The Author(s) 2016.

Lower hospital mortality and complications after pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Bratton, Susan L; Van Duker, Heather; Statler, Kimberly D; Pulsipher, Michael A; McArthur, Jennifer; Keenan, Heather T

2008-03-01

To assess protective and risk factors for mortality among pediatric patients during initial care after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and to evaluate changes in hospital mortality. Retrospective cohort using the 1997, 2000, and 2003 Kids Inpatient Database, a probabilistic sample of children hospitalized in the United States with a procedure code for HSCT. Hospitalized patients in the United States submitted to the database. Age, <19 yrs. None. Hospital mortality significantly decreased from 12% in 1997 to 6% in 2003. Source of stem cells changed with increased use of cord blood. Rates of sepsis, graft versus host disease, and mechanical ventilation significantly decreased. Compared with autologous HSCT, patients who received an allogenic HSCT without T-cell depletion were more likely to die (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.5, 3.9), while children who received cord blood HSCT were at the greatest risk of hospital death (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.6, 9.1). Mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio, 26.32; 95% confidence interval, 16.3-42.2), dialysis (adjusted odds ratio, 12.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.7-35.4), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-6.1) were all independently associated with death, while care in 2003 was associated with decreased risk (adjusted odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.7) of death. Hospital mortality after HSCT in children decreased over time as did complications including need for mechanical ventilation, graft versus host disease, and sepsis. Prevention of complications is essential as the need for invasive support continues to be associated with high mortality risk.

The Association Between Maternal Age and Cerebral Palsy Risk Factors.

PubMed

Schneider, Rilla E; Ng, Pamela; Zhang, Xun; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael I; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-05-01

Advanced maternal age is associated with higher frequencies of antenatal and perinatal conditions, as well as a higher risk of cerebral palsy in offspring. We explore the association between maternal age and specific cerebral palsy risk factors. Data were extracted from the Canadian Cerebral Palsy Registry. Maternal age was categorized as ≥35 years of age and less than 20 years of age at the time of birth. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The final sample consisted of 1391 children with cerebral palsy, with 19% of children having mothers aged 35 or older and 4% of children having mothers below the age of 20. Univariate analyses showed that mothers aged 35 or older were more likely to have gestational diabetes (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.8), to have a history of miscarriage (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.4), to have undergone fertility treatments (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.9), and to have delivered by Caesarean section (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 2.2). These findings were supported by multivariate analyses. Children with mothers below the age of 20 were more likely to have a congenital malformation (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2), which is also supported by multivariate analysis. The risk factor profiles of children with cerebral palsy vary by maternal age. Future studies are warranted to further our understanding of the compound causal pathways leading to cerebral palsy and the observed greater prevalence of cerebral palsy with increasing maternal age. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Migraine with aura and risk of silent brain infarcts and white matter hyperintensities: an MRI study

PubMed Central

Garde, Ellen; Blaabjerg, Morten; Nielsen, Helle H.; Krøigård, Thomas; Østergaard, Kamilla; Møller, Harald S.; Hjelmborg, Jacob; Madsen, Camilla G.; Iversen, Pernille; Kyvik, Kirsten O.; Siebner, Hartwig R.; Ashina, Messoud

2016-01-01

Abstract A small number of population-based studies reported an association between migraine with aura and risk of silent brain infarcts and white matter hyperintensities in females. We investigated these relations in a population-based sample of female twins. We contacted female twins ages 30–60 years identified through the population-based Danish Twin Registry. Based on questionnaire responses, twins were invited to participate in a telephone-based interview conducted by physicians. Headache diagnoses were established according to the International Headache Society criteria. Cases with migraine with aura, their co-twins, and unrelated migraine-free twins (controls) were invited to a brain magnetic resonance imaging scan performed at a single centre. Brain scans were assessed for the presence of infarcts, and white matter hyperintensities (visual rating scales and volumetric analyses) blinded to headache diagnoses. Comparisons were based on 172 cases, 34 co-twins, and 139 control subjects. Compared with control subjects, cases did not differ with regard to frequency of silent brain infarcts (four cases versus one control), periventricular white matter hyperintensity scores [adjusted mean difference (95% confidence interval): −0.1 (−0.5 to 0.2)] or deep white matter hyperintensity scores [adjusted mean difference (95% confidence interval): 0.1 (−0.8 to 1.1)] assessed by Scheltens’ scale. Cases had a slightly higher total white matter hyperintensity volume compared with controls [adjusted mean difference (95% confidence interval): 0.17 (−0.08 to 0.41) cm 3 ] and a similar difference was present in analyses restricted to twin pairs discordant for migraine with aura [adjusted mean difference 0.21 (−0.20 to 0.63)], but these differences did not reach statistical significance. We found no evidence of an association between silent brain infarcts, white matter hyperintensities, and migraine with aura. PMID:27190013

"Magnitude-based inference": a statistical review.

PubMed

Welsh, Alan H; Knight, Emma J

2015-04-01

We consider "magnitude-based inference" and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how "magnitude-based inference" is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. We show that "magnitude-based inference" is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with "magnitude-based inference" and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using "magnitude-based inference," a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis.

Emulation of Industrial Control Field Device Protocols

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

platforms such as the Arduino ( based on the Atmel AVR architecture) or popular PIC architecture based devices, which are programmed for specific functions...UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base , Ohio DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION...confidence intervals for the mean. Based on these results, extensive knowledge of the specific implementations of the protocols or timing profiles of the

Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

2012-01-01

Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howington, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

Earth before life.

PubMed

Marzban, Caren; Viswanathan, Raju; Yurtsever, Ulvi

2014-01-09

A recent study argued, based on data on functional genome size of major phyla, that there is evidence life may have originated significantly prior to the formation of the Earth. Here a more refined regression analysis is performed in which 1) measurement error is systematically taken into account, and 2) interval estimates (e.g., confidence or prediction intervals) are produced. It is shown that such models for which the interval estimate for the time origin of the genome includes the age of the Earth are consistent with observed data. The appearance of life after the formation of the Earth is consistent with the data set under examination.

Increased calcium supplementation is associated with morbidity and mortality in the infant postoperative cardiac patient.

PubMed

Dyke, Peter C; Yates, Andrew R; Cua, Clifford L; Hoffman, Timothy M; Hayes, John; Feltes, Timothy F; Springer, Michelle A; Taeed, Roozbeh

2007-05-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the association of calcium replacement therapy with morbidity and mortality in infants after cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass. Retrospective chart review. The cardiac intensive care unit at a tertiary care children's hospital. Infants undergoing cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass between October 2002 and August 2004. None. Total calcium replacement (mg/kg calcium chloride given) for the first 72 postoperative hours was measured. Morbidity and mortality data were collected. The total volume of blood products given during the first 72 hrs was recorded. Infants with confirmed chromosomal deletions at the 22q11 locus were noted. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were used to generate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, with p < .05 being significant. One hundred seventy-one infants met inclusion criteria. Age was 4 +/- 3 months and weight was 4.9 +/- 1.7 kg at surgery. Six infants had deletions of chromosome 22q11. Infants who weighed less required more calcium replacement (r = -.28, p < .001). Greater calcium replacement correlated with a longer intensive care unit length of stay (r = .27, p < .001) and a longer total hospital length of stay (r = .23, p = .002). Greater calcium replacement was significantly associated with morbidity (liver dysfunction [odds ratio, 3.9; confidence interval, 2.1-7.3; p < .001], central nervous system complication [odds ratio, 1.8; confidence interval, 1.1-3.0; p = .02], infection [odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 1.0-2.2; p < .04], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [odds ratio, 5.0; confidence interval, 2.3-10.6; p < .001]) and mortality (odds ratio, 5.8; confidence interval, 5.8-5.9; p < .001). Greater calcium replacement was not associated with renal insufficiency (odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 0.9-2.3; p = .07). Infants with >1 sd above the mean of total calcium replacement received on average fewer blood products than the total study population. Greater calcium replacement is associated with increasing morbidity and mortality. Further investigation of the etiology and therapy of hypocalcemia in this population is warranted.

WITHDRAWN: Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G Justus

2009-01-21

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Reliability of clinical findings and magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae.

PubMed

Pihlajamäki, Harri K; Kuikka, Paavo-Ilari; Leppänen, Vesa-Veikko; Kiuru, Martti J; Mattila, Ville M

2010-04-01

This diagnostic study was performed to determine the correlation between anterior knee pain and chondromalacia patellae and to define the reliability of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae. Fifty-six young adults (median age, 19.5 years) with anterior knee pain had magnetic resonance imaging of the knee followed by arthroscopy. The patellar chondral lesions identified by magnetic resonance imaging were compared with the arthroscopic findings. Arthroscopy confirmed the presence of chondromalacia patellae in twenty-five (45%) of the fifty-six knees, a synovial plica in twenty-five knees, a meniscal tear in four knees, and a femorotibial chondral lesion in four knees; normal anatomy was seen in six knees. No association was found between the severity of the chondromalacia patellae seen at arthroscopy and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome (p = 0.83). The positive predictive value for the ability of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging to detect chondromalacia patellae was 75% (95% confidence interval, 53% to 89%), the negative predictive value was 72% (95% confidence interval, 56% to 84%), the sensitivity was 60% (95% confidence interval, 41% to 77%), the specificity was 84% (95% confidence interval, 67% to 93%), and the diagnostic accuracy was 73% (95% confidence interval, 60% to 83%). The sensitivity was 13% (95% confidence interval, 2% to 49%) for grade-I lesions and 83% (95% confidence interval, 59% to 94%) for grade-II, III, or IV lesions. Chondromalacia patellae cannot be diagnosed on the basis of symptoms or with current physical examination methods. The present study demonstrated no correlation between the severity of chondromalacia patellae and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome. Thus, symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome should not be used as an indication for knee arthroscopy. The sensitivity of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging was low for grade-I lesions but considerably higher for more severe (grade-II, III, or IV) lesions. Magnetic resonance imaging may be considered an accurate diagnostic tool for identification of more severe cases of chondromalacia patellae.

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M.; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long–term prognostic value. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Results Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). Conclusions The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. PMID:27697781

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis.

PubMed

Verde, Eduardo; Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-12-07

Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long-term prognostic value. We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

The VOICE study - A before and after study of a dementia communication skills training course.

PubMed

O'Brien, Rebecca; Goldberg, Sarah E; Pilnick, Alison; Beeke, Suzanne; Schneider, Justine; Sartain, Kate; Thomson, Louise; Murray, Megan; Baxendale, Bryn; Harwood, Rowan H

2018-01-01

A quarter of acute hospital beds are occupied by persons living with dementia, many of whom have communication problems. Healthcare professionals lack confidence in dementia communication skills, but there are no evidence-based communication skills training approaches appropriate for professionals working in this context. We aimed to develop and pilot a dementia communication skills training course that was acceptable and useful to healthcare professionals, hospital patients and their relatives. The course was developed using conversation analytic findings from video recordings of healthcare professionals talking to patients living with dementia in the acute hospital, together with systematic review evidence of dementia communication skills training and taking account of expert and service-user opinion. The two-day course was based on experiential learning theory, and included simulation and video workshops, reflective diaries and didactic teaching. Actors were trained to portray patients living with dementia for the simulation exercises. Six courses were run between January and May 2017. 44/45 healthcare professionals attended both days of the course. Evaluation entailed: questionnaires on confidence in dementia communication; a dementia communication knowledge test; and participants' satisfaction. Video-recorded, simulated assessments were used to measure changes in communication behaviour. Healthcare professionals increased their knowledge of dementia communication (mean improvement 1.5/10; 95% confidence interval 1.0-2.0; p<0.001). Confidence in dementia communication also increased (mean improvement 5.5/45; 95% confidence interval 4.1-6.9; p<0.001) and the course was well-received. One month later participants reported using the skills learned in clinical practice. Blind-ratings of simulated patient encounters demonstrated behaviour change in taught communication behaviours to close an encounter, consistent with the training, but not in requesting behaviours. We have developed an innovative, evidence-based dementia communication skills training course which healthcare professionals found useful and after which they demonstrated improved dementia communication knowledge, confidence and behaviour.

Costs of necrotizing enterocolitis and cost-effectiveness of exclusively human milk-based products in feeding extremely premature infants.

PubMed

Ganapathy, Vaidyanathan; Hay, Joel W; Kim, Jae H

2012-02-01

This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a 100% human milk-based diet composed of mother's milk fortified with a donor human milk-based human milk fortifier (HMF) versus mother's milk fortified with bovine milk-based HMF to initiate enteral nutrition among extremely premature infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). A net expected costs calculator was developed to compare the total NICU costs among extremely premature infants who were fed either a bovine milk-based HMF-fortified diet or a 100% human milk-based diet, based on the previously observed risks of overall necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and surgical NEC in a randomized controlled study that compared outcomes of these two feeding strategies among 207 very low birth weight infants. The average NICU costs for an extremely premature infant without NEC and the incremental costs due to medical and surgical NEC were derived from a separate analysis of hospital discharges in the state of California in 2007. The sensitivity of cost-effectiveness results to the risks and costs of NEC and to prices of milk supplements was studied. The adjusted incremental costs of medical NEC and surgical NEC over and above the average costs incurred for extremely premature infants without NEC, in 2011 US$, were $74,004 (95% confidence interval, $47,051-$100,957) and $198,040 (95% confidence interval, $159,261-$236,819) per infant, respectively. Extremely premature infants fed with 100% human-milk based products had lower expected NICU length of stay and total expected costs of hospitalization, resulting in net direct savings of 3.9 NICU days and $8,167.17 (95% confidence interval, $4,405-$11,930) per extremely premature infant (p < 0.0001). Costs savings from the donor HMF strategy were sensitive to price and quantity of donor HMF, percentage reduction in risk of overall NEC and surgical NEC achieved, and incremental costs of surgical NEC. Compared with feeding extremely premature infants with mother's milk fortified with bovine milk-based supplements, a 100% human milk-based diet that includes mother's milk fortified with donor human milk-based HMF may result in potential net savings on medical care resources by preventing NEC.

New Approaches to Robust Confidence Intervals for Location: A Simulation Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

obtain a denominator for the test statistic. Those statistics based on location estimates derived from Hampel’s redescending influence function or v...defined an influence function for a test in terms of the behavior of its P-values when the data are sampled from a model distribution modified by point...proposal could be used for interval estimation as well as hypothesis testing, the extension is immediate. Once an influence function has been defined

Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

2015-01-01

Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

Transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities: retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Chan, Brandford H Y; Leung, Gabriel M; Lau, Eric H Y; Pang, Herbert

2014-01-01

Objectives To estimate the transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities and to identify associated risk factors. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Social media (YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram). Participants David Beckham, Cristiano Ronaldo, Benedict Cumberbatch, Stephen Hawking, Mark Zuckerberg, Oprah Winfrey, Homer Simpson, and Kermit the Frog were defined as index cases. We included contacts up to the fifth generation seeded from each index case and enrolled a total of 99 participants into the cohort. Main outcome measures Basic reproduction number R0, serial interval of accepting the challenge, and odds ratios of associated risk factors based on fully observed nomination chains; R0 is a measure of transmissibility and is defined as the number of secondary cases generated by a single index in a fully susceptible population. Serial interval is the duration between onset of a primary case and onset of its secondary cases. Results Based on the empirical data and assuming a branching process we estimated a mean R0 of 1.43 (95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.65) and a mean serial interval for accepting the challenge of 2.1 days (median 1 day). Higher log (base 10) net worth of the participants was positively associated with transmission (odds ratio 1.63, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.50), adjusting for age and sex. Conclusions The Ice Bucket Challenge was moderately transmissible among a group of globally influential celebrities, in the range of the pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza. The challenge was more likely to be spread by richer celebrities, perhaps in part reflecting greater social influence. PMID:25514905

Exposure to diesel and gasoline engine emissions and the risk of lung cancer.

PubMed

Parent, Marie-Elise; Rousseau, Marie-Claude; Boffetta, Paolo; Cohen, Aaron; Siemiatycki, Jack

2007-01-01

Pollution from motor vehicles constitutes a major environmental health problem. The present paper describes associations between diesel and gasoline engine emissions and lung cancer, as evidenced in a 1979-1985 population-based case-control study in Montreal, Canada. Cases were 857 male lung cancer patients. Controls were 533 population controls and 1,349 patients with other cancer types. Subjects were interviewed to obtain a detailed lifetime job history and relevant data on potential confounders. Industrial hygienists translated each job description into indices of exposure to several agents, including engine emissions. There was no evidence of excess risks of lung cancer with exposure to gasoline exhaust. For diesel engine emissions, results differed by control group. When cancer controls were considered, there was no excess risk. When population controls were studied, the odds ratios, after adjustments for potential confounders, were 1.2 (95% confidence interval: 0.8, 1.8) for any exposure and 1.6 (95% confidence interval: 0.9, 2.8) for substantial exposure. Confidence intervals between risk estimates derived from the two control groups overlapped considerably. These results provide some limited support for the hypothesis of an excess lung cancer risk due to diesel exhaust but no support for an increase in risk due to gasoline exhaust.

A method for meta-analysis of epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Einarson, T R; Leeder, J S; Koren, G

1988-10-01

This article presents a stepwise approach for conducting a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies based on proposed guidelines. This systematic method is recommended for practitioners evaluating epidemiological studies in the literature to arrive at an overall quantitative estimate of the impact of a treatment. Bendectin is used as an illustrative example. Meta-analysts should establish a priori the purpose of the analysis and a complete protocol. This protocol should be adhered to, and all steps performed should be recorded in detail. To aid in developing such a protocol, we present methods the researcher can use to perform each of 22 steps in six major areas. The illustrative meta-analysis confirmed previous traditional narrative literature reviews that Bendectin is not related to teratogenic outcomes in humans. The overall summary odds ratio was 1.01 (chi 2 = 0.05, p = 0.815) with a 95 percent confidence interval of 0.66-1.55. When the studies were separated according to study type, the summary odds ratio for cohort studies was 0.95 with a 95 percent confidence interval of 0.62-1.45. For case-control studies, the summary odds ratio was 1.27 with a 95 percent confidence interval of 0.83-1.94. The corresponding chi-square values were not statistically significant at the p = 0.05 level.

Combining benefits of an adrenergic and a muscarinic blocker in a single formulation - a pharmacokinetic evaluation.

PubMed

Nazarudheen, Shabana; Dey, Surajit; Kandhwal, Kirti; Arora, Rachna; Reyar, Simrit; Khuroo, Arshad H; Monif, Tausif; Madan, Sumit; Arora, Vinod

2013-11-01

A pharmacokinetic bioequivalence study was conducted in Asian subjects, to compare a fixed dose combination capsule single oral dose of alpha adrenoceptor blocker-Alfuzosin hydrochloride 10mg extended release and muscarinic antagonists-Solifenacin succinate 5mg against individually administered Xatral XL 10mg tablets (Alfuzosin) of Sanofi Synthelabo Limited, United Kingdom (UK) and Vesicare 5mg tablets (Solifenacin) of Astellas Pharma Limited, UK under fed conditions. Blood samples were collected pre-dose up to 72 h post dose for determination of plasma Alfuzosin and Solifenacin concentrations and calculation of the pharmacokinetic parameters. ANOVA was performed on the log (natural)-transformed pharmacokinetic parameters. A 90% confidence interval for the ratios of the test and reference product averages (least square means) were calculated for alfuzosin and solifenacin. The 90% confidence intervals obtained for alfuzosin for Cmax, AUC0-t and AUC0-∞ were 102.74-122.75%, 95.84-116.96% and 95.82-116.76%, respectively. The 90% confidence intervals obtained for Solifenacin for Cmax, and AUC0-72 were 89.55-97.91% and 90.47-99.38%, respectively. Based on the results, the fixed dose combination was concluded to be bioequivalent to individually administered products. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Antenatal Steroid Therapy for Fetal Lung Maturation and the Subsequent Risk of Childhood Asthma: A Longitudinal Analysis

PubMed Central

Pole, Jason D.; Mustard, Cameron A.; To, Teresa; Beyene, Joseph; Allen, Alexander C.

2010-01-01

This study was designed to test the hypothesis that fetal exposure to corticosteroids in the antenatal period is an independent risk factor for the development of asthma in early childhood with little or no effect in later childhood. A population-based cohort study of all pregnant women who resided in Nova Scotia, Canada, and gave birth to a singleton fetus between 1989 and 1998 was undertaken. After a priori specified exclusions, 80,448 infants were available for analysis. Using linked health care utilization records, incident asthma cases developed after 36 months of age were identified. Extended Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios while controlling for confounders. Exposure to corticosteroids during pregnancy was associated with a risk of asthma in childhood between 3–5 years of age: adjusted hazard ratio of 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.39), with no association noted after 5 years of age: adjusted hazard ratio for 5–7 years was 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 0.86, 1.30) and for 8 or greater years was 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 1.03). Antenatal steroid therapy appears to be an independent risk factor for the development of asthma between 3 and 5 years of age. PMID:21490744

Racism, segregation, and risk of obesity in the Black Women's Health Study.

PubMed

Cozier, Yvette C; Yu, Jeffrey; Coogan, Patricia F; Bethea, Traci N; Rosenberg, Lynn; Palmer, Julie R

2014-04-01

We assessed the relation of experiences of racism to the incidence of obesity and the modifying impact of residential racial segregation in the Black Women's Health Study, a follow-up study of US black women. Racism scores were created from 8 questions asked in 1997 and 2009 about the frequency of "everyday" racism (e.g., "people act as if you are dishonest") and of "lifetime" racism (e.g., unfair treatment on the job). Residential segregation was measured by linking participant addresses to 2000 and 2010 US Census block group data on the percent of black residents. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Based on 4,315 incident cases of obesity identified from 1997 through 2009, both everyday racism and lifetime racism were positively associated with increased incidence. The incidence rate ratios for women who were in the highest category of everyday racism or lifetime racism in both 1997 and 2009, relative to those in the lowest category, were 1.69 (95% confidence interval: 1.45, 1.96; Ptrend < 0.01) and 1.38 (95% confidence interval: 1.15, 1.66; Ptrend < 0.01), respectively. These associations were not modified by residential segregation. These results suggest that racism contributes to the higher incidence of obesity among African American women.

Socioeconomic gradients of cardiovascular risk factors in China and India: results from the China health and retirement longitudinal study and longitudinal aging study in India.

PubMed

Hu, Peifeng; Wang, Serena; Lee, Jinkook

2017-09-01

Cardiovascular disease has become a major public health challenge in developing countries. The goal of this study is to compare socioeconomic status (SES) gradients of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) both within and between China and India. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine the associations between SES and CVRF, using data from the China health and retirement longitudinal study and the longitudinal aging study in India. The results showed that, compared to illiteracy, the odds ratios of completing junior high school for high-risk waist circumference were 4.99 (95% confidence interval: 1.77-14.06) among Indian men, 3.42 (95% confidence interval: 1.66-7.05) among Indian women, but 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-0.92) among Chinese women. Similar patterns were observed between educational attainment and high-risk body mass index, and between education and hypertension, based on self-reported physician diagnosis and direct blood pressure measurements. SES is associated with CVRF in both China and India. However, this relationship showed opposite patterns across two countries, suggesting that this association is not fixed, but is subjective to underlying causal pathways, such as patterns of risky health behaviors and different social and health policies.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

Likelihood ratio meta-analysis: New motivation and approach for an old method.

PubMed

Dormuth, Colin R; Filion, Kristian B; Platt, Robert W

2016-03-01

A 95% confidence interval (CI) in an updated meta-analysis may not have the expected 95% coverage. If a meta-analysis is simply updated with additional data, then the resulting 95% CI will be wrong because it will not have accounted for the fact that the earlier meta-analysis failed or succeeded to exclude the null. This situation can be avoided by using the likelihood ratio (LR) as a measure of evidence that does not depend on type-1 error. We show how an LR-based approach, first advanced by Goodman, can be used in a meta-analysis to pool data from separate studies to quantitatively assess where the total evidence points. The method works by estimating the log-likelihood ratio (LogLR) function from each study. Those functions are then summed to obtain a combined function, which is then used to retrieve the total effect estimate, and a corresponding 'intrinsic' confidence interval. Using as illustrations the CAPRIE trial of clopidogrel versus aspirin in the prevention of ischemic events, and our own meta-analysis of higher potency statins and the risk of acute kidney injury, we show that the LR-based method yields the same point estimate as the traditional analysis, but with an intrinsic confidence interval that is appropriately wider than the traditional 95% CI. The LR-based method can be used to conduct both fixed effect and random effects meta-analyses, it can be applied to old and new meta-analyses alike, and results can be presented in a format that is familiar to a meta-analytic audience. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Value of Computed Tomographic Perfusion-Based Patient Selection for Intra-Arterial Acute Ischemic Stroke Treatment.

PubMed

Borst, Jordi; Berkhemer, Olvert A; Roos, Yvo B W E M; van Bavel, Ed; van Zwam, Wim H; van Oostenbrugge, Robert J; van Walderveen, Marianne A A; Lingsma, Hester F; van der Lugt, Aad; Dippel, Diederik W J; Yoo, Albert J; Marquering, Henk A; Majoie, Charles B L M

2015-12-01

The utility of computed tomographic perfusion (CTP)-based patient selection for intra-arterial treatment of acute ischemic stroke has not been proven in randomized trials and requires further study in a cohort that was not selected based on CTP. Our objective was to study the relationship between CTP-derived parameters and outcome and treatment effect in patients with acute ischemic stroke because of a proximal intracranial arterial occlusion. We included 175 patients who underwent CTP in the Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke in The Netherlands (MR CLEAN). Association of CTP-derived parameters (ischemic-core volume, penumbra volume, and percentage ischemic core) with outcome was estimated with multivariable ordinal logistic regression as an adjusted odds ratio for a shift in the direction of a better outcome on the modified Rankin Scale. Interaction between CTP-derived parameters and treatment effect was determined using multivariable ordinal logistic regression. Interaction with treatment effect was also tested for mismatch (core <70 mL; penumbra core >1.2; penumbra core >10 mL). The adjusted odds ratio for improved functional outcome for ischemic core, percentage ischemic core, and penumbra were 0.79 per 10 mL (95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.89; P<0.001), 0.82 per 10% (95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.90; P=0.002), and 0.97 per 10 mL (96% confidence interval: 0.92-1.01; P=0.15), respectively. No significant interaction between any of the CTP-derived parameters and treatment effect was observed. We observed no significant interaction between mismatch and treatment effect. CTP seems useful for predicting functional outcome, but cannot reliably identify patients who will not benefit from intra-arterial therapy. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Exploring students’ perceived and actual ability in solving statistical problems based on Rasch measurement tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azila Che Musa, Nor; Mahmud, Zamalia; Baharun, Norhayati

2017-09-01

One of the important skills that is required from any student who are learning statistics is knowing how to solve statistical problems correctly using appropriate statistical methods. This will enable them to arrive at a conclusion and make a significant contribution and decision for the society. In this study, a group of 22 students majoring in statistics at UiTM Shah Alam were given problems relating to topics on testing of hypothesis which require them to solve the problems using confidence interval, traditional and p-value approach. Hypothesis testing is one of the techniques used in solving real problems and it is listed as one of the difficult concepts for students to grasp. The objectives of this study is to explore students’ perceived and actual ability in solving statistical problems and to determine which item in statistical problem solving that students find difficult to grasp. Students’ perceived and actual ability were measured based on the instruments developed from the respective topics. Rasch measurement tools such as Wright map and item measures for fit statistics were used to accomplish the objectives. Data were collected and analysed using Winsteps 3.90 software which is developed based on the Rasch measurement model. The results showed that students’ perceived themselves as moderately competent in solving the statistical problems using confidence interval and p-value approach even though their actual performance showed otherwise. Item measures for fit statistics also showed that the maximum estimated measures were found on two problems. These measures indicate that none of the students have attempted these problems correctly due to reasons which include their lack of understanding in confidence interval and probability values.

Gender-Specific Differences in Low-Dose Haloperidol Response for Prevention of Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting: A Register-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Brettner, Florian; Janitza, Silke; Prüll, Kathrin; Weninger, Ernst; Mansmann, Ulrich; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Jovanovic, Alexander; Pollwein, Bernhard; Chappell, Daniel; Zwissler, Bernhard; von Dossow, Vera

2016-01-01

Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is one of the most common and distressing complications after general anesthesia and surgery, with young non-smoking females receiving postoperative opioids being high-risk patients. This register-based study aims to evaluate the effect of low-dose haloperidol (0.5 mg intravenously) directly after induction of general anesthesia to reduce the incidence of PONV in the postoperative anesthesiological care unit (PACU). Multivariable regression models were used to investigate the association between low-dose haloperidol and the occurrence of PONV using a patient registry containing 2,617 surgical procedures carried out at an university hospital. Haloperidol 0.5 mg is associated with a reduced risk of PONV in the total collective (adjusted odds ratio = 0.75, 95% confidence interval: [0.56, 0.99], p = 0.05). The results indicate that there is a reduced risk in male patients (adjusted odds ratio = 0.45, 95% confidence interval: [0.28, 0.73], p = 0.001) if a dose of 0.5 mg haloperidol was administered while there seems to be no effect in females (adjusted odds ratio = 1.02, 95% confidence interval: [0.71, 1.46], p = 0.93). Currently known risk factors for PONV such as female gender, duration of anesthesia and the use of opioids were confirmed in our analysis. This study suggests that low-dose haloperidol has an antiemetic effect in male patients but has no effect in female patients. A confirmation of the gender-specific effects we have observed in this register-based cohort study might have major implications on clinical daily routine.

Gender-Specific Differences in Low-Dose Haloperidol Response for Prevention of Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting: A Register-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Prüll, Kathrin; Weninger, Ernst; Mansmann, Ulrich; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Jovanovic, Alexander; Pollwein, Bernhard; Chappell, Daniel; Zwissler, Bernhard; von Dossow, Vera

2016-01-01

Background Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is one of the most common and distressing complications after general anesthesia and surgery, with young non-smoking females receiving postoperative opioids being high-risk patients. This register-based study aims to evaluate the effect of low-dose haloperidol (0.5 mg intravenously) directly after induction of general anesthesia to reduce the incidence of PONV in the postoperative anesthesiological care unit (PACU). Methods Multivariable regression models were used to investigate the association between low-dose haloperidol and the occurrence of PONV using a patient registry containing 2,617 surgical procedures carried out at an university hospital. Results Haloperidol 0.5 mg is associated with a reduced risk of PONV in the total collective (adjusted odds ratio = 0.75, 95% confidence interval: [0.56, 0.99], p = 0.05). The results indicate that there is a reduced risk in male patients (adjusted odds ratio = 0.45, 95% confidence interval: [0.28, 0.73], p = 0.001) if a dose of 0.5 mg haloperidol was administered while there seems to be no effect in females (adjusted odds ratio = 1.02, 95% confidence interval: [0.71, 1.46], p = 0.93). Currently known risk factors for PONV such as female gender, duration of anesthesia and the use of opioids were confirmed in our analysis. Conclusion This study suggests that low-dose haloperidol has an antiemetic effect in male patients but has no effect in female patients. A confirmation of the gender-specific effects we have observed in this register-based cohort study might have major implications on clinical daily routine. PMID:26751066

Mesalamine, but Not Sulfasalazine, Reduces the Risk of Colorectal Neoplasia in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: An Agent-specific Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

OʼConnor, Anthony; Packey, Christopher D; Akbari, Mona; Moss, Alan C

2015-11-01

In some studies, 5-aminosalicylates as a class have been associated with protective effects against colorectal cancer in inflammatory bowel disease. In practice, only mesalamine at doses greater than 1.2 g per day is currently widely in this setting. The specific impact of mesalamine at these doses has not has not previously been determined. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of mesalamine on risk of colorectal neoplasia (CRN) from prior cohort and case-control studies. Sensitivity analyses for study setting and case definition were performed. A quality assessment was made of all included studies. Mesalamine was associated with a modest reduction in the odds ratio (OR) of CRN (OR = 0.6, 95% confidence interval, 0.4-0.9, P = 0.04). This effect was only noted in hospital-based studies and only in the reduction of all CRN (not cancers alone). Patients prescribed doses >1.2 g per day had a lower risk of CRN (OR = 0.5, 95% confidence interval, 0.3-0.9, P = 0.02) than lower doses. This effect was also only present in the hospital-based studies. In contrast, there was no reduction in the risk of CRN in patients prescribed sulfasalazine (OR = 0.8, 95% confidence interval, 0.5-1.2, P = 0.3), regardless of study setting. Mesalamine, particularly at doses >1.2 g per day, produces a modest reduction in the risk of CRN in inflammatory bowel disease patient populations from referral centers. Sulfasalazine does not seem to reduce the risk. No benefit was noted in population-based studies.

Real-Time Optical Biopsy of Colon Polyps With Narrow Band Imaging in Community Practice Does Not Yet Meet Key Thresholds for Clinical Decisions

PubMed Central

LADABAUM, URI; FIORITTO, ANN; MITANI, AYA; DESAI, MANISHA; KIM, JANE P.; REX, DOUGLAS K.; IMPERIALE, THOMAS; GUNARATNAM, NARESH

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND & AIMS Accurate optical analysis of colorectal polyps (optical biopsy) could prevent unnecessary polypectomies or allow a “resect and discard” strategy with surveillance intervals determined based on the results of the optical biopsy; this could be less expensive than histopathologic analysis of polyps. We prospectively evaluated real-time optical biopsy analysis of polyps with narrow band imaging (NBI) by community-based gastroenterologists. METHODS We first analyzed a computerized module to train gastroenterologists (N = 13) in optical biopsy skills using photographs of polyps. Then we evaluated a practice-based learning program for these gastroenterologists (n = 12) that included real-time optical analysis of polyps in vivo, comparison of optical biopsy predictions to histopathologic analysis, and ongoing feedback on performance. RESULTS Twelve of 13 subjects identified adenomas with >90% accuracy at the end of the computer study, and 3 of 12 subjects did so with accuracy ≥90% in the in vivo study. Learning curves showed considerable variation among batches of polyps. For diminutive rectosigmoid polyps assessed with high confidence at the end of the study, adenomas were identified with mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive values of 81% (73%–89%), 85% (74%–96%), 78% (66%–92%), and 91% (86%–97%), respectively. The adjusted odds ratio for high confidence as a predictor of accuracy was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3–2.5). The agreement between surveillance recommendations informed by high-confidence NBI analysis of diminutive polyps and results from histopathologic analysis of all polyps was 80% (95% CI, 77%–82%). CONCLUSIONS In an evaluation of real-time optical biopsy analysis of polyps with NBI, only 25% of gastroenterologists assessed polyps with ≥90% accuracy. The negative predictive value for identification of adenomas, but not the surveillance interval agreement, met the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy–recommended thresholds for optical biopsy. Better results in community practice must be achieved before NBI-based optical biopsy methods can be used routinely to evaluate polyps; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01638091. PMID:23041328

Approximate Confidence Intervals for Moment-Based Estimators of the Between-Study Variance in Random Effects Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack; Baker, Rose

2015-01-01

Moment-based estimators of the between-study variance are very popular when performing random effects meta-analyses. This type of estimation has many advantages including computational and conceptual simplicity. Furthermore, by using these estimators in large samples, valid meta-analyses can be performed without the assumption that the treatment…

A Meta-Analysis of School-Based Bullying Prevention Programs' Effects on Bystander Intervention Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Polanin, Joshua R.; Espelage, Dorothy L.; Pigott, Therese D.

2012-01-01

This meta-analysis synthesized bullying prevention programs' effectiveness at increasing bystander intervention in bullying situations. Evidence from 12 school-based programs, involving 12,874 students, indicated that overall the programs were successful (Hedges's g = 0.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.11 to 0.29, p = 0.001), with larger…

Curriculum-Based Measurement of Oral Reading: A Preliminary Investigation of Confidence Interval Overlap to Detect Reliable Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Norman, Ethan R.

2016-01-01

Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) progress monitoring data is used to measure student response to instruction. Federal legislation permits educators to use CBM-R progress monitoring data as a basis for determining the presence of specific learning disabilities. However, decision making frameworks originally developed for CBM-R…

Automated semantic indexing of figure captions to improve radiology image retrieval.

PubMed

Kahn, Charles E; Rubin, Daniel L

2009-01-01

We explored automated concept-based indexing of unstructured figure captions to improve retrieval of images from radiology journals. The MetaMap Transfer program (MMTx) was used to map the text of 84,846 figure captions from 9,004 peer-reviewed, English-language articles to concepts in three controlled vocabularies from the UMLS Metathesaurus, version 2006AA. Sampling procedures were used to estimate the standard information-retrieval metrics of precision and recall, and to evaluate the degree to which concept-based retrieval improved image retrieval. Precision was estimated based on a sample of 250 concepts. Recall was estimated based on a sample of 40 concepts. The authors measured the impact of concept-based retrieval to improve upon keyword-based retrieval in a random sample of 10,000 search queries issued by users of a radiology image search engine. Estimated precision was 0.897 (95% confidence interval, 0.857-0.937). Estimated recall was 0.930 (95% confidence interval, 0.838-1.000). In 5,535 of 10,000 search queries (55%), concept-based retrieval found results not identified by simple keyword matching; in 2,086 searches (21%), more than 75% of the results were found by concept-based search alone. Concept-based indexing of radiology journal figure captions achieved very high precision and recall, and significantly improved image retrieval.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes after bariatric surgery; a systematic review and meta-analysis: do the benefits outweigh the risks?

PubMed

Kwong, Wilson; Tomlinson, George; Feig, Denice S

2018-02-15

Obesity during pregnancy is associated with a number of adverse obstetric outcomes that include gestational diabetes mellitus, macrosomia, and preeclampsia. Increasing evidence shows that bariatric surgery may decrease the risk of these outcomes. Our aim was to evaluate the benefits and risks of bariatric surgery in obese women according to obstetric outcomes. We performed a systematic literature search using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, and PubMed from inception up to December 12, 2016. Studies were included if they evaluated patients who underwent bariatric surgery, reported subsequent pregnancy outcomes, and compared these outcomes with a control group. Two reviewers extracted study outcomes independently, and risk of bias was assessed with the use of the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Pooled odds ratios for each outcome were estimated with the Dersimonian and Laird random effects model. After a review of 2616 abstracts, 20 cohort studies and approximately 2.8 million subjects (8364 of whom had bariatric surgery) were included in the metaanalysis. In our primary analysis, patients who underwent bariatric surgery showed reduced rates of gestational diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.37, number needed to benefit, 5), large-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.59; number needed to benefit, 6), gestational hypertension (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.76; number needed to benefit, 11), all hypertensive disorders (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.53; number needed to benefit, 8), postpartum hemorrhage (odds ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-1.37; number needed to benefit, 21), and caesarean delivery rates (odds ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.67; number needed to benefit, 9); however, group of patients showed an increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 21), intrauterine growth restriction (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 66), and preterm deliveries (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.79; number needed to harm, 35) when compared with control subjects who were matched for presurgery body mass index. There were no differences in rates of preeclampsia, neonatal intensive care unit admissions, stillbirths, malformations, and neonatal death. Malabsorptive surgeries resulted in a greater increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (P=.0466) and a greater decrease in large-for-gestational-age infants (P=<.0001) compared with restrictive surgeries. There were no differences in outcomes when we used administrative databases vs clinical charts. Although bariatric surgery is associated with a reduction in the risk of several adverse obstetric outcomes, there is a potential for an increased risk of other important outcomes that should be considered when bariatric surgery is discussed with reproductive-age women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of adverse events of renal impairment related to platinum-based compounds using the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database.

PubMed

Naganuma, Misa; Motooka, Yumi; Sasaoka, Sayaka; Hatahira, Haruna; Hasegawa, Shiori; Fukuda, Akiho; Nakao, Satoshi; Shimada, Kazuyo; Hirade, Koseki; Mori, Takayuki; Yoshimura, Tomoaki; Kato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro

2018-01-01

Platinum compounds cause several adverse events, such as nephrotoxicity, gastrointestinal toxicity, myelosuppression, ototoxicity, and neurotoxicity. We evaluated the incidence of renal impairment as adverse events are related to the administration of platinum compounds using the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database. We analyzed adverse events associated with the use of platinum compounds reported from April 2004 to November 2016. The reporting odds ratio at 95% confidence interval was used to detect the signal for each renal impairment incidence. We evaluated the time-to-onset profile of renal impairment and assessed the hazard type using Weibull shape parameter and used the applied association rule mining technique to discover undetected relationships such as possible risk factor. In total, 430,587 reports in the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database were analyzed. The reporting odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for renal impairment resulting from the use of cisplatin, oxaliplatin, carboplatin, and nedaplatin were 2.7 (2.5-3.0), 0.6 (0.5-0.7), 0.8 (0.7-1.0), and 1.3 (0.8-2.1), respectively. The lower limit of the reporting odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for cisplatin was >1. The median (lower-upper quartile) onset time of renal impairment following the use of platinum-based compounds was 6.0-8.0 days. The Weibull shape parameter β and 95% confidence interval upper limit of oxaliplatin were <1. In the association rule mining, the score of lift for patients who were treated with cisplatin and co-administered furosemide, loxoprofen, or pemetrexed was high. Similarly, the scores for patients with hypertension or diabetes mellitus were high. Our findings suggest a potential risk of renal impairment during cisplatin use in real-world setting. The present findings demonstrate that the incidence of renal impairment following cisplatin use should be closely monitored when patients are hypertensive or diabetic, or when they are co-administered furosemide, loxoprofen, or pemetrexed. In addition, healthcare professionals should closely assess a patient's background prior to treatment.

Risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation.

PubMed

Atchison, Christie M; Amankwah, Ernest; Wilhelm, Jean; Arlikar, Shilpa; Branchford, Brian R; Stock, Arabela; Streiff, Michael; Takemoto, Clifford; Ayala, Irmel; Everett, Allen; Stapleton, Gary; Jacobs, Marshall L; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Goldenberg, Neil A

2018-02-01

Paediatric hospital-associated venous thromboembolism is a leading quality and safety concern at children's hospitals. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. We conducted a retrospective, case-control study of children admitted to the cardiovascular intensive care unit at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital (St. Petersburg, Florida, United States of America) from 2006 to 2013. Hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases were identified based on ICD-9 discharge codes and validated using radiological record review. We randomly selected two contemporaneous cardiovascular intensive care unit controls without hospital-associated venous thromboembolism for each hospital-associated venous thromboembolism case, and limited the study population to patients who had undergone cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between putative risk factors and hospital-associated venous thromboembolism were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Among 2718 admissions to the cardiovascular intensive care unit during the study period, 65 met the criteria for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (occurrence rate, 2%). Restriction to cases and controls having undergone the procedures of interest yielded a final study population of 57 hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases and 76 controls. In a multiple logistic regression model, major infection (odds ratio=5.77, 95% confidence interval=1.06-31.4), age ⩽1 year (odds ratio=6.75, 95% confidence interval=1.13-160), and central venous catheterisation (odds ratio=7.36, 95% confidence interval=1.13-47.8) were found to be statistically significant independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in these children. Patients with all three factors had a markedly increased post-test probability of having hospital-associated venous thromboembolism. Major infection, infancy, and central venous catheterisation are independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or cardiac catheter-based intervention, which, in combination, define a high-risk group for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism.

Shared and Distinct Rupture Discriminants of Small and Large Intracranial Aneurysms.

PubMed

Varble, Nicole; Tutino, Vincent M; Yu, Jihnhee; Sonig, Ashish; Siddiqui, Adnan H; Davies, Jason M; Meng, Hui

2018-04-01

Many ruptured intracranial aneurysms (IAs) are small. Clinical presentations suggest that small and large IAs could have different phenotypes. It is unknown if small and large IAs have different characteristics that discriminate rupture. We analyzed morphological, hemodynamic, and clinical parameters of 413 retrospectively collected IAs (training cohort; 102 ruptured IAs). Hierarchal cluster analysis was performed to determine a size cutoff to dichotomize the IA population into small and large IAs. We applied multivariate logistic regression to build rupture discrimination models for small IAs, large IAs, and an aggregation of all IAs. We validated the ability of these 3 models to predict rupture status in a second, independently collected cohort of 129 IAs (testing cohort; 14 ruptured IAs). Hierarchal cluster analysis in the training cohort confirmed that small and large IAs are best separated at 5 mm based on morphological and hemodynamic features (area under the curve=0.81). For small IAs (<5 mm), the resulting rupture discrimination model included undulation index, oscillatory shear index, previous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and absence of multiple IAs (area under the curve=0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.88), whereas for large IAs (≥5 mm), the model included undulation index, low wall shear stress, previous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and IA location (area under the curve=0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.93). The model for the aggregated training cohort retained all the parameters in the size-dichotomized models. Results in the testing cohort showed that the size-dichotomized rupture discrimination model had higher sensitivity (64% versus 29%) and accuracy (77% versus 74%), marginally higher area under the curve (0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.88 versus 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.82), and similar specificity (78% versus 80%) compared with the aggregate-based model. Small (<5 mm) and large (≥5 mm) IAs have different hemodynamic and clinical, but not morphological, rupture discriminants. Size-dichotomized rupture discrimination models performed better than the aggregate model. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Influence of air quality model resolution on uncertainty associated with health impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

2012-06-01

We use regional air quality modeling to evaluate the impact of model resolution on uncertainty associated with the human health benefits resulting from proposed air quality regulations. Using a regional photochemical model (CAMx), we ran a modeling episode with meteorological inputs representing conditions as they occurred during August through September 2006, and two emissions inventories (a 2006 base case and a 2018 proposed control scenario, both for Houston, Texas) at 36, 12, 4 and 2 km resolution. The base case model performance was evaluated for each resolution against daily maximum 8-h averaged ozone measured at monitoring stations. Results from each resolution were more similar to each other than they were to measured values. Population-weighted ozone concentrations were calculated for each resolution and applied to concentration response functions (with 95% confidence intervals) to estimate the health impacts of modeled ozone reduction from the base case to the control scenario. We found that estimated avoided mortalities were not significantly different between 2, 4 and 12 km resolution runs, but 36 km resolution may over-predict some potential health impacts. Given the cost/benefit analysis requirements of the Clean Air Act, the uncertainty associated with human health impacts and therefore the results reported in this study, we conclude that health impacts calculated from population weighted ozone concentrations obtained using regional photochemical models at 36 km resolution fall within the range of values obtained using fine (12 km or finer) resolution modeling. However, in some cases, 36 km resolution may not be fine enough to statistically replicate the results achieved using 2 and 4 km resolution. On average, when modeling at 36 km resolution, 7 deaths per ozone month were avoided because of ozone reductions resulting from the proposed emissions reductions (95% confidence interval was 2-9). When modeling at 2, 4 or 12 km finer scale resolution, on average 5 deaths were avoided due to the same reductions (95% confidence interval was 2-7). Initial results for this specific region show that modeling at a resolution finer than 12 km is unlikely to improve uncertainty in benefits analysis. We suggest that 12 km resolution may be appropriate for uncertainty analyses in areas with similar chemistry, but that resolution requirements should be assessed on a case-by-case basis and revised as confidence intervals for concentration-response functions are updated.

Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

2013-01-01

The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

Treesearch

Harold M. Rauscher

1983-01-01

The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zou, Guang Yong

2007-01-01

Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, James M.

1994-12-01

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and quality of life.

PubMed

Jelovsek, J Eric; Barber, Matthew D

2006-05-01

Women who seek treatment for pelvic organ prolapse strive for an improvement in quality of life. Body image has been shown to be an important component of differences in quality of life. To date, there are no data on body image in patients with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Our objective was to compare body image and quality of life in women with advanced pelvic organ prolapse with normal controls. We used a case-control study design. Cases were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary urogynecology clinic with advanced pelvic organ prolapse (stage 3 or 4). Controls were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary care gynecology or women's health clinic for an annual visit with normal pelvic floor support (stage 0 or 1) and without urinary incontinence. All patients completed a valid and reliable body image scale and a generalized (Short Form Health Survey) and condition-specific (Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20) quality-of-life scale. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to adjust for possible confounding variables. Forty-seven case and 51 control subjects were enrolled. After controlling for age, race, parity, previous hysterectomy, and medical comorbidities, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse were more likely to feel self-conscious (adjusted odds ratio 4.7; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 18, P = .02), less likely to feel physically attractive (adjusted odds ratio 11; 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 51, P < .001), less likely to feel feminine (adjusted odds ratio 4.0; 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 15, P = .03), and less likely to feel sexually attractive (adjusted odds ratio 4.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 17, P = .02) than normal controls. The groups were similar in their feeling of dissatisfaction with appearance when dressed, difficulty looking at themselves naked, avoiding people because of appearance, and overall dissatisfaction with their body. Subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse suffered significantly lower quality of life on the physical scale of the SF-12 (mean 42; 95% confidence interval 39 to 45 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 53, P < .009). However, no differences between groups were noted on the mental scale of the SF-12 (mean 51; 95% confidence interval 50 to 54 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 52, P = .56). Additionally, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse scored significantly worse on the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 than normal controls (mean summary score 104; 95% confidence interval 90 to 118 versus mean 29; 95% confidence interval 16 to 43, P < .0001), indicating a decrease in condition-specific quality of life. Worsening body image correlated with lower quality of life on both the physical and mental scales of the SF-12 as well as the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 in subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and overall quality of life. Body image may be a key determinant for quality of life in patients with advanced prolapse and may be an important outcome measure for treatment evaluation in clinical trials.

Exercise during pregnancy in normal-weight women and risk of preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Di Mascio, Daniele; Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Marhefka, Gregary D; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-11-01

Preterm birth is the major cause of perinatal mortality in the United States. In the past, pregnant women have been recommended to not exercise because of presumed risks of preterm birth. Physical activity has been theoretically related to preterm birth because it increases the release of catecholamines, especially norepinephrine, which might stimulate myometrial activity. Conversely, exercise may reduce the risk of preterm birth by other mechanisms such as decreased oxidative stress or improved placenta vascularization. Therefore, the safety of exercise regarding preterm birth and its effects on gestational age at delivery remain controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of exercise during pregnancy on the risk of preterm birth. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Sciences, Scopus, ClinicalTrial.gov, OVID, and Cochrane Library were searched from the inception of each database to April 2016. Selection criteria included only randomized clinical trials of pregnant women randomized before 23 weeks to an aerobic exercise regimen or not. Types of participants included women of normal weight with uncomplicated, singleton pregnancies without any obstetric contraindication to physical activity. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean difference with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was the incidence of preterm birth <37 weeks. Of the 2059 women included in the meta-analysis, 1022 (49.6%) were randomized to the exercise group and 1037 (50.4%) to the control group. Aerobic exercise lasted about 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week. Women who were randomized to aerobic exercise had a similar incidence of preterm birth of <37 weeks (4.5% vs 4.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.50) and a similar mean gestational age at delivery (mean difference, 0.05 week, 95% confidence interval, -0.07 to 0.17) compared with controls. Women in the exercise group had a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery (73.6% vs 67.5%; relative risk, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.15) and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (17.9% vs 22%; relative risk, 0.82, 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.97) compared with controls. The incidence of operative vaginal delivery (12.9% vs 16.5%; relative risk, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.01) was similar in both groups. Women in the exercise group had a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (2.9% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.51, 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.82) and a significantly lower incidence of hypertensive disorders (1.0% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.21, 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.45) compared with controls. No differences in low birthweight (5.2% vs 4.7%; relative risk, 1.11, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.73) and mean birthweight (mean difference, -10.46 g, 95% confidence interval, -47.10 to 26.21) between the exercise group and controls were found. Aerobic exercise for 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week during pregnancy can be safely performed by normal-weight women with singleton, uncomplicated gestations because this is not associated with an increased risk of preterm birth or with a reduction in mean gestational age at delivery. Exercise was associated with a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery, with a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders and therefore should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Factors associated with physical inactivity among school-going adolescents: data from the Malaysian School-Based Nutrition Survey 2012.

PubMed

Baharudin, Azli; Zainuddin, Ahmad Ali; Manickam, Mala A; Ambak, Rashidah; Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Naidu, Balkish Mahadir; Cheong, Siew Man; Ying, Chan Ying; Saad, Hazizi Abu; Ahmad, Noor Ani

2014-09-01

The importance of physical activity to health is well recognized. Good health habits should begin from a young age. This article aims to explore physical activity among Malaysian school adolescents and factors associated with it. Data from the Malaysian School-Based Nutrition Survey (MSNS), comprising a nationally representative sample of school-going children aged 10 to 17 years, were used. The overall prevalence of physically inactive adolescents was 57.3%. Age in years (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2; 95% confidence interval = 1.16-1.23), gender - females (adjusted odds ratio = 2.9; 95% confidence interval = 2.66-3.10), afternoon school session, breakfast consumption (no breakfast and irregular breakfast), body mass index status (obese and underweight), and body weight perception (underweight perceivers) were significant factors associated with physical inactivity among Malaysian adolescents. Thus, there is evidence that programs to promote physical activity in this group should consider the combination of the aforementioned factors at the household, school, and community levels. © 2014 APJPH.

Overlap between treatment and control distributions as an effect size measure in experiments.

PubMed

Hedges, Larry V; Olkin, Ingram

2016-03-01

The proportion π of treatment group observations that exceed the control group mean has been proposed as an effect size measure for experiments that randomly assign independent units into 2 groups. We give the exact distribution of a simple estimator of π based on the standardized mean difference and use it to study the small sample bias of this estimator. We also give the minimum variance unbiased estimator of π under 2 models, one in which the variance of the mean difference is known and one in which the variance is unknown. We show how to use the relation between the standardized mean difference and the overlap measure to compute confidence intervals for π and show that these results can be used to obtain unbiased estimators, large sample variances, and confidence intervals for 3 related effect size measures based on the overlap. Finally, we show how the effect size π can be used in a meta-analysis. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Modified Dempster-Shafer approach using an expected utility interval decision rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheaito, Ali; Lecours, Michael; Bosse, Eloi

1999-03-01

The combination operation of the conventional Dempster- Shafer algorithm has a tendency to increase exponentially the number of propositions involved in bodies of evidence by creating new ones. The aim of this paper is to explore a 'modified Dempster-Shafer' approach of fusing identity declarations emanating form different sources which include a number of radars, IFF and ESM systems in order to limit the explosion of the number of propositions. We use a non-ad hoc decision rule based on the expected utility interval to select the most probable object in a comprehensive Platform Data Base containing all the possible identity values that a potential target may take. We study the effect of the redistribution of the confidence levels of the eliminated propositions which otherwise overload the real-time data fusion system; these eliminated confidence levels can in particular be assigned to ignorance, or uniformly added to the remaining propositions and to ignorance. A scenario has been selected to demonstrate the performance of our modified Dempster-Shafer method of evidential reasoning.

Age and fecundability in a North American preconception cohort study.

PubMed

Wesselink, Amelia K; Rothman, Kenneth J; Hatch, Elizabeth E; Mikkelsen, Ellen M; Sørensen, Henrik T; Wise, Lauren A

2017-12-01

There is a well-documented decline in fertility treatment success with increasing female age; however, there are few preconception cohort studies that have examined female age and natural fertility. In addition, data on male age and fertility are inconsistent. Given the increasing number of couples who are attempting conception at older ages, a more detailed characterization of age-related fecundability in the general population is of great clinical utility. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between female and male age with fecundability. We conducted a web-based preconception cohort study of pregnancy planners from the United States and Canada. Participants were enrolled between June 2013 and July 2017. Eligible participants were 21-45 years old (female) or ≥21 years old (male) and had not been using fertility treatments. Couples were followed until pregnancy or for up to 12 menstrual cycles. We analyzed data from 2962 couples who had been trying to conceive for ≤3 cycles at study entry and reported no history of infertility. We used life-table methods to estimate the unadjusted cumulative pregnancy proportion at 6 and 12 cycles by female and male age. We used proportional probabilities regression models to estimate fecundability ratios, the per-cycle probability of conception for each age category relative to the referent (21-24 years old), and 95% confidence intervals. Among female patients, the unadjusted cumulative pregnancy proportion at 6 cycles of attempt time ranged from 62.0% (age 28-30 years) to 27.6% (age 40-45 years); the cumulative pregnancy proportion at 12 cycles of attempt time ranged from 79.3% (age 25-27 years old) to 55.5% (age 40-45 years old). Similar patterns were observed among male patients, although differences between age groups were smaller. After adjusting for potential confounders, we observed a nearly monotonic decline in fecundability with increasing female age, with the exception of 28-33 years, at which point fecundability was relatively stable. Fecundability ratios were 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.11) for ages 25-27, 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.08) for ages 28-30, 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-1.08) for ages 31-33, 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.05) for ages 34-36, 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.81) for ages 37-39, and 0.40 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-0.73) for ages 40-45, compared with the reference group (age, 21-24 years). The association was stronger among nulligravid women. Male age was not associated appreciably with fecundability after adjustment for female age, although the number of men >45 years old was small (n=37). In this preconception cohort study of North American pregnancy planners, increasing female age was associated with an approximately linear decline in fecundability. Although we found little association between male age and fecundability, the small number of men in our study >45 years old limited our ability to draw conclusions on fecundability in older men. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A randomized controlled non-inferiority study comparing the antiemetic effect between intravenous granisetron and oral azasetron based on estimated 5-HT3 receptor occupancy.

PubMed

Endo, Junki; Iihara, Hirotoshi; Yamada, Maya; Yanase, Koumei; Kamiya, Fumihiko; Ito, Fumitaka; Funaguchi, Norihiko; Ohno, Yasushi; Minatoguchi, Shinya; Itoh, Yoshinori

2012-09-01

The acute antiemetic effect was compared between oral azasetron and intravenous granisetron based on the 5-hydroxytryptamine(3) (5-HT(3)) receptor occupancy theory. Receptor occupancy was estimated from reported data on plasma concentrations and affinity constants to 5-HT(3) receptor. A randomized non-inferiority study comparing acute antiemetic effects between oral azasetron and intravenous granisetron was performed in 105 patients receiving the first course of carboplatin-based chemotherapy for lung cancer. Azasetron exhibited the highest 5-HT(3) receptor occupancy among various first-generation 5-HT(3) antagonists. The complete response to oral azasetron was shown to be non-inferior to that of intravenous granisetron, in which the risk difference was 0.0004 (95% confidence interval: -0.0519-0.0527). The lower limit of the confidence intervals did not exceed the negative non-inferiority margin (-0.1). The complete response during the overall period was not different (68% versus 67%). Oral azasetron was found to be non-inferior to intravenous granisetron in the acute antiemetic effect against moderately emetogenic chemotherapy.

High-precision measurements of cementless acetabular components using model-based RSA: an experimental study.

PubMed

Baad-Hansen, Thomas; Kold, Søren; Kaptein, Bart L; Søballe, Kjeld

2007-08-01

In RSA, tantalum markers attached to metal-backed acetabular cups are often difficult to detect on stereo radiographs due to the high density of the metal shell. This results in occlusion of the prosthesis markers and may lead to inconclusive migration results. Within the last few years, new software systems have been developed to solve this problem. We compared the precision of 3 RSA systems in migration analysis of the acetabular component. A hemispherical and a non-hemispherical acetabular component were mounted in a phantom. Both acetabular components underwent migration analyses with 3 different RSA systems: conventional RSA using tantalum markers, an RSA system using a hemispherical cup algorithm, and a novel model-based RSA system. We found narrow confidence intervals, indicating high precision of the conventional marker system and model-based RSA with regard to migration and rotation. The confidence intervals of conventional RSA and model-based RSA were narrower than those of the hemispherical cup algorithm-based system regarding cup migration and rotation. The model-based RSA software combines the precision of the conventional RSA software with the convenience of the hemispherical cup algorithm-based system. Based on our findings, we believe that these new tools offer an improvement in the measurement of acetabular component migration.

A computer program for uncertainty analysis integrating regression and Bayesian methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Hill, Mary C.; Poeter, Eileen P.; Curtis, Gary

2014-01-01

This work develops a new functionality in UCODE_2014 to evaluate Bayesian credible intervals using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The MCMC capability in UCODE_2014 is based on the FORTRAN version of the differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm of Vrugt et al. (2009), which estimates the posterior probability density function of model parameters in high-dimensional and multimodal sampling problems. The UCODE MCMC capability provides eleven prior probability distributions and three ways to initialize the sampling process. It evaluates parametric and predictive uncertainties and it has parallel computing capability based on multiple chains to accelerate the sampling process. This paper tests and demonstrates the MCMC capability using a 10-dimensional multimodal mathematical function, a 100-dimensional Gaussian function, and a groundwater reactive transport model. The use of the MCMC capability is made straightforward and flexible by adopting the JUPITER API protocol. With the new MCMC capability, UCODE_2014 can be used to calculate three types of uncertainty intervals, which all can account for prior information: (1) linear confidence intervals which require linearity and Gaussian error assumptions and typically 10s–100s of highly parallelizable model runs after optimization, (2) nonlinear confidence intervals which require a smooth objective function surface and Gaussian observation error assumptions and typically 100s–1,000s of partially parallelizable model runs after optimization, and (3) MCMC Bayesian credible intervals which require few assumptions and commonly 10,000s–100,000s or more partially parallelizable model runs. Ready access allows users to select methods best suited to their work, and to compare methods in many circumstances.

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Predictors of hospital stay and home care services use: a population-based, retrospective cohort study in stage IV gastric cancer.

PubMed

Mahar, Alyson L; Coburn, Natalie G; Viola, Raymond; Johnson, Ana P

2015-02-01

Home care services use has been proposed as a means of reducing costs in palliative care by decreasing hospital stay without impacting quality of clinical care; however, little is known about utilization of these services in the time following a terminal cancer diagnosis. To examine disease, patient and healthcare system predictors of hospital stay, and home care services use in metastatic gastric cancer patients. This is a population-based, retrospective cohort study. Chart review and administrative data were linked, using a 26-month time horizon to collect health services data. All patients diagnosed with metastatic gastric cancer in the province of Ontario between 2005 and 2008 were included in the study (n = 1433). Age, comorbidity, tumor location, and burden of metastatic disease were identified as predictors of hospital stay and receipt of home care services. Individuals who received home care services spent fewer days in hospital than individuals who did not (relative risk: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.38-0.51). Patients who interacted with a high-volume oncology specialist had shorter cumulative hospital stay (relative risk: 0.62; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.71) and were less likely to receive home care services (relative risk: 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.88) than those who did not. Examining how differences in hospital stay and home care services use impact clinical outcomes and how policies may reduce costs to the healthcare system is necessary. © The Author(s) 2014.

Measuring coverage in MNCH: total survey error and the interpretation of intervention coverage estimates from household surveys.

PubMed

Eisele, Thomas P; Rhoda, Dale A; Cutts, Felicity T; Keating, Joseph; Ren, Ruilin; Barros, Aluisio J D; Arnold, Fred

2013-01-01

Nationally representative household surveys are increasingly relied upon to measure maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) intervention coverage at the population level in low- and middle-income countries. Surveys are the best tool we have for this purpose and are central to national and global decision making. However, all survey point estimates have a certain level of error (total survey error) comprising sampling and non-sampling error, both of which must be considered when interpreting survey results for decision making. In this review, we discuss the importance of considering these errors when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage estimates derived from household surveys, using relevant examples from national surveys to provide context. Sampling error is usually thought of as the precision of a point estimate and is represented by 95% confidence intervals, which are measurable. Confidence intervals can inform judgments about whether estimated parameters are likely to be different from the real value of a parameter. We recommend, therefore, that confidence intervals for key coverage indicators should always be provided in survey reports. By contrast, the direction and magnitude of non-sampling error is almost always unmeasurable, and therefore unknown. Information error and bias are the most common sources of non-sampling error in household survey estimates and we recommend that they should always be carefully considered when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage based on survey data. Overall, we recommend that future research on measuring MNCH intervention coverage should focus on refining and improving survey-based coverage estimates to develop a better understanding of how results should be interpreted and used.

Measuring Coverage in MNCH: Total Survey Error and the Interpretation of Intervention Coverage Estimates from Household Surveys

PubMed Central

Eisele, Thomas P.; Rhoda, Dale A.; Cutts, Felicity T.; Keating, Joseph; Ren, Ruilin; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Arnold, Fred

2013-01-01

Nationally representative household surveys are increasingly relied upon to measure maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) intervention coverage at the population level in low- and middle-income countries. Surveys are the best tool we have for this purpose and are central to national and global decision making. However, all survey point estimates have a certain level of error (total survey error) comprising sampling and non-sampling error, both of which must be considered when interpreting survey results for decision making. In this review, we discuss the importance of considering these errors when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage estimates derived from household surveys, using relevant examples from national surveys to provide context. Sampling error is usually thought of as the precision of a point estimate and is represented by 95% confidence intervals, which are measurable. Confidence intervals can inform judgments about whether estimated parameters are likely to be different from the real value of a parameter. We recommend, therefore, that confidence intervals for key coverage indicators should always be provided in survey reports. By contrast, the direction and magnitude of non-sampling error is almost always unmeasurable, and therefore unknown. Information error and bias are the most common sources of non-sampling error in household survey estimates and we recommend that they should always be carefully considered when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage based on survey data. Overall, we recommend that future research on measuring MNCH intervention coverage should focus on refining and improving survey-based coverage estimates to develop a better understanding of how results should be interpreted and used. PMID:23667331

New utility for an old tool: can a simple gait speed test predict ambulatory surgical discharge outcomes?

PubMed

Odonkor, Charles A; Schonberger, Robert B; Dai, Feng; Shelley, Kirk H; Silverman, David G; Barash, Paul G

2013-10-01

The primary aims of this study were to design prediction models based on a functional marker (preoperative gait speed) to predict readiness for home discharge time of 90 mins or less and to identify those at risk for unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery. This prospective observational cohort study evaluated all patients scheduled for elective ambulatory surgery. Home discharge readiness and unplanned admissions were the primary outcomes. Independent variables included preoperative gait speed, heart rate, and total anesthesia time. The relationship between all predictors and each primary outcome was determined in separate multivariable logistic regression models. After adjustment for covariates, gait speed with adjusted odds ratio of 3.71 (95% confidence interval, 1.21-11.26), P = 0.02, was independently associated with early home discharge readiness of 90 mins or less. Importantly, gait speed dichotomized as greater or less than 1 m/sec predicted unplanned admissions, with odds ratio of 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.76, P = 0.008) for those with speeds 1 m/sec or greater in comparison with those with speeds less than 1 m/sec. In a separate model, history of cardiac surgery with adjusted odds ratio of 7.5 (95% confidence interval, 2.34-24.41; P = 0.001) was independently associated with unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery, when other covariates were held constant. This study demonstrates the use of novel prediction models based on gait speed testing to predict early home discharge and to identify those patients at risk for unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery.

Resistance to penicillin of Staphylococcus aureus isolates from cows with high somatic cell counts in organic and conventional dairy herds in Denmark

PubMed Central

Bennedsgaard, Torben W; Thamsborg, Stig M; Aarestrup, Frank M; Enevoldsen, Carsten; Vaarst, Mette; Christoffersen, Anna B

2006-01-01

Background Quarter milk samples from cows with high risk of intramammary infection were examined to determine the prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) and penicillin resistant SA (SAr) in conventional and organic dairy herds and herds converting to organic farming in a combined longitudinal and cross-sectional study. Methods 20 conventional herds, 18 organic herds that converted before 1995, and 19 herds converting to organic farming in 1999 or 2000 were included in the study. Herds converting to organic farming were sampled three times one year apart; the other herds were sampled once. Risk of infection was estimated based on somatic cell count, milk production, breed, age and lactation stage. Results The high-risk cows represented about 49 % of the cows in the herds. The overall prevalence of SA and SAr among these cows was 29% (95% confidence interval: 24%–34%) and 4% (95% confidence interval: 2%–5%) respectively. The prevalence of penicillin resistance among SA infected cows was 12% (95% confidence interval: 6%–19%) when calculated from the first herd visits. No statistically significant differences were observed in the prevalence of SAr or the proportion of isolates resistant to penicillin between herd groups. Conclusion The proportion of isolates resistant to penicillin was low compared to studies in other countries except Norway and Sweden. Based on the low prevalence of penicillin resistance of SA, penicillin should still be the first choice of antimicrobial agent for treatment of bovine intramammary infection in Denmark. PMID:17125515

Reliability of scoring arousals in normal children and children with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome.

PubMed

Wong, Tat Kong; Galster, Patricia; Lau, Tai Shing; Lutz, Janita M; Marcus, Carole L

2004-09-15

Scoring of arousals in children is based on an extension of adult criteria, as defined by the American Sleep Disorders Association (ASDA). By this, a minimum duration of 3 seconds is required. A few recent studies utilized modified criteria for the study of children, with durations as short as 1 second. However, the validity and reliability of scoring these shorter arousals have never been verified. Based on studies in adults, we hypothesized that interscorer agreement for scoring arousals shorter than 3 seconds was poor. Retrospective review of polysomnograms by 2 experienced sleep practitioners who independently scored arousals according to the ASDA 3-second criteria and modified duration criteria of 1 and 2 seconds. Academic hospital. 20 polysomnographic studies from children aged 3 to 8 years with mild to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, and 16 polysomnographic studies from normal children. None. The intraclass correlation coefficient for scoring ASDA arousals was 0.90 (95% confidence interval: 0.81-0.95), indicating excellent interscorer agreement. The intraclass correlation coefficient for scoring modified 1-second and 2-second arousals were 0.35 (95% confidence interval: 0.02-0.61) and 0.42 (95% confidence interval: 0.12-0.65) respectively, indicating poor to fair interscorer agreement. Furthermore, modified 1-second and 2-second arousals accounted for less than 15% of all arousals scored. We conclude that there is much poorer interscorer agreement for scoring arousals shorter than 3 seconds, when compared to the standard ASDA criteria. We propose that scoring of arousals in children should follow the standard ASDA criteria.

Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

PubMed

Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

2015-01-01

The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

Statistics Using Just One Formula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenthal, Jeffrey S.

2018-01-01

This article advocates that introductory statistics be taught by basing all calculations on a single simple margin-of-error formula and deriving all of the standard introductory statistical concepts (confidence intervals, significance tests, comparisons of means and proportions, etc) from that one formula. It is argued that this approach will…

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

2010-01-01

The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

Estimating Standardized Linear Contrasts of Means with Desired Precision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

L. Wilkinson and the Task Force on Statistical Inference (1999) recommended reporting confidence intervals for measures of effect sizes. If the sample size is too small, the confidence interval may be too wide to provide meaningful information. Recently, K. Kelley and J. R. Rausch (2006) used an iterative approach to computer-generate tables of…

UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

EPA Science Inventory

Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

The impact of effort-reward imbalance on quality of life among Japanese working men.

PubMed

Watanabe, Mayumi; Tanaka, Katsutoshi; Aratake, Yutaka; Kato, Noritada; Sakata, Yumi

2008-07-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is an important measure of health outcome in working and healthy populations. Here, we investigated the impact of effort-reward imbalance (ERI), a representative work-stress model, on HRQL of Japanese working men. The study targeted 1,096 employees from a manufacturing plant in Japan. To assess HRQL and ERI, participants were surveyed using the Japanese version of the Short-Form 8 Health Survey (SF-8) and effort-reward imbalance model. Of the 1,096 employees, 1,057 provided valid responses to the questionnaire. For physical summary scores, the adjusted effort-reward imbalance odds ratios of middle vs. bottom and top vs. bottom tertiles were 0.24 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.70) and 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.28), respectively. For mental summary scores, ratios were 0.21 (95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.63) and 0.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.25), respectively. These findings demonstrate that effort-reward imbalance is independently associated with HRQL among Japanese employees.

Prognostic Value of Residual Urine Volume, GFR by 24-hour Urine Collection, and eGFR in Patients Receiving Dialysis.

PubMed

Lee, Mi Jung; Park, Jung Tak; Park, Kyoung Sook; Kwon, Young Eun; Oh, Hyung Jung; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kim, Yon Su; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam-Ho; Kang, Shin-Wook; Han, Seung Hyeok

2017-03-07

Residual kidney function can be assessed by simply measuring urine volume, calculating GFR using 24-hour urine collection, or estimating GFR using the proposed equation (eGFR). We aimed to investigate the relative prognostic value of these residual kidney function parameters in patients on dialysis. Using the database from a nationwide prospective cohort study, we compared differential implications of the residual kidney function indices in 1946 patients on dialysis at 36 dialysis centers in Korea between August 1, 2008 and December 31, 2014. Residual GFR calculated using 24-hour urine collection was determined by an average of renal urea and creatinine clearance on the basis of 24-hour urine collection. eGFR-urea, creatinine and eGFR β 2 -microglobulin were calculated from the equations using serum urea and creatinine and β 2 -microglobulin, respectively. The primary outcome was all-cause death. During a mean follow-up of 42 months, 385 (19.8%) patients died. In multivariable Cox analyses, residual urine volume (hazard ratio, 0.96 per 0.1-L/d higher volume; 95% confidence interval, 0.94 to 0.98) and GFR calculated using 24-hour urine collection (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.95 to 0.99) were independently associated with all-cause mortality. In 1640 patients who had eGFR β 2 -microglobulin data, eGFR β 2 -microglobulin (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 0.99) was also significantly associated with all-cause mortality as well as residual urine volume (hazard ratio, 0.96 per 0.1-L/d higher volume; 95% confidence interval, 0.94 to 0.98) and GFR calculated using 24-hour urine collection (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.95 to 0.99). When each residual kidney function index was added to the base model, only urine volume improved the predictability for all-cause mortality (net reclassification index =0.11, P =0.01; integrated discrimination improvement =0.01, P =0.01). Higher residual urine volume was significantly associated with a lower risk of death and exhibited a stronger association with mortality than GFR calculated using 24-hour urine collection and eGFR-urea, creatinine. These results suggest that determining residual urine volume may be beneficial to predict patient survival in patients on dialysis. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase and thymidylate synthase genotypes and risk of acute graft-versus-host disease following hematopoietic cell transplantation for chronic myelogenous leukemia.

PubMed

Robien, Kim; Bigler, Jeannette; Yasui, Yutaka; Potter, John D; Martin, Paul; Storb, Rainer; Ulrich, Cornelia M

2006-09-01

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) and thymidylate synthase (TS) play key roles in intracellular folate metabolism. Polymorphisms in these enzymes have been shown to modify toxicity of methotrexate (MTX) after hematopoietic cell transplantation. In this study, we evaluated the risk of acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) associated with genetic variation in recipient and donor MTHFR and TS genotypes to assess whether genotype alters the efficacy of MTX in acute GVHD prophylaxis. Data on the transplantation course were abstracted from medical records for 304 adults who received allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplants. MTHFR (C677T and A1298C) and TS (enhancer-region 28-base pair repeat, TSER, and 1494del6) genotypes were determined using polymerase chain reaction/restriction fragment length polymorphism and TaqMan assays. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the associations between genotypes and risk of acute GVHD. Compared with recipients with the wild-type MTHFR 677CC genotype, those with the variant 677T allele showed a decreased risk of detectable acute GVHD (677CT: odds ratio, 0.8; 95% confidence interval, 0.4-1.6; 677TT: odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.8; P for trend = .01). The variant MTHFR 1298C allele in recipients was associated with an increased risk of acute GVHD compared with the wild-type MTHFR 1298AA genotype (1298AC: odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-3.9; 1298CC: odds ratio, 3.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-12.7; P for trend < .01). No association with risk of acute GVHD was observed for donor MTHFR genotypes or for recipient or donor TS genotypes, with the exception of an increase in acute GVHD among recipients whose donors had the TSER 3R/2R genotype (odds ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-7.2). These findings indicate that host, but not donor, MTHFR genotypes modify the risk of acute GVHD in recipients receiving MTX, in a manner consistent with our previously reported associations between MTHFR genotypes and MTX toxicity. A direct trade-off between drug toxicity and drug efficacy may play a role. Alternatively, the systemic folate environment, regulated by host tissues, might influence donor T-cell growth and activity.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ruanpeng, Darin; Ungprasert, Patompong; Sangtian, Jutarat; Harindhanavudhi, Tasma

2017-09-01

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors could potentially alter calcium and phosphate homeostasis and may increase the risk of bone fracture. The current meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the fracture risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors. Randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors to placebo were identified. The risk ratios of fracture among patients who received SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo were extracted from each study. Pooled risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a random-effect, Mantel-Haenszel analysis. A total of 20 studies with 8286 patients treated with SGLT2 inhibitors were included. The pooled risk ratio of bone fracture in patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo was 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.42-1.07). The pooled risk ratio for canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and empagliflozin was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-1.19), 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-3.18), and 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-1.59), respectively. Increased risk of bone fracture among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo was not observed in this meta-analysis. However, the results were limited by short duration of treatment/follow-up and low incidence of the event of interest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of gender role attitudes on smoking and drinking among girls from Jujuy, Argentina.

PubMed

Mejia, Raul; Kaplan, Celia P; Alderete, Ethel; Gregorich, Steven E; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

2013-09-01

Evaluate effect of gender role attitudes on tobacco and alcohol use among Argentinean girls. Cross-sectional survey of 10th grade students attending 27 randomly selected schools in Jujuy, Argentina. Questions about tobacco and alcohol use were adapted from global youth surveys. Five items with 5-point response options of agreement-disagreement assessed attitude towards egalitarian (higher score) gender roles. 2133 girls, aged 13-18 years, 71% Indigenous, 22% mixed Indigenous/European, and 7% European responded. Of these, 60% had ever smoked, 32% were current smokers, 58% ever drinkers, 27% drank in previous month, and 13% had ≥5 drinks on one occasion. Mean response to the gender role scale was 3.49 (95% Confidence Intervals = 3.41-3.57) out of 5 tending toward egalitarian attitudes. Logistic regression models using the gender role scale score as the main predictor and adjusting for demographic and social confounders showed that egalitarian gender role was associated with ever smoking (Odds Ratio = 1.25; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.09-1.44), ever drinking (Odds Ratio = 1.24; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.10-1.40), drinking in prior month (Odds Ratio = 1.21; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.07-1.37) and ≥5 drinks on one occasion (Odds Ratio = 1.15; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.00-1.33), but was not significant for current smoking. Girls in Jujuy who reported more egalitarian gender role attitudes had higher odds of smoking or drinking. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hostility and the risk of peptic ulcer in the GAZEL cohort.

PubMed

Lemogne, Cédric; Schuster, Jean-Pierre; Levenstein, Susan; Melchior, Maria; Nabi, Hermann; Ducimetière, Pierre; Limosin, Frédéric; Goldberg, Marcel; Zins, Marie; Consoli, Silla M

2015-02-01

Evidence for an association between hostility and peptic ulcer mainly relies on cross-sectional studies. Prospective studies are rare and have not used a validated measure of hostility. This prospective study aimed to examine the association between hostility and peptic ulcer in the large-scale French GAZEL cohort. In 1993, 14,674 participants completed the Buss and Durkee Hostility Inventory. Participants were annually followed-up from 1994 to 2011. Diagnosis of peptic ulcer was self-reported. The association between hostility scores and ulcer incidence was measured by hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals computed through Cox regression. Among 13,539 participants free of peptic ulcer history at baseline, 816 reported a peptic ulcer during a mean follow-up of 16.8 years. Adjusting for potential confounders, including smoking, occupational grade, and a proxy for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug exposure, ulcer incidence was positively associated with total hostility (HR per SD: 1.23, confidence interval: 1.14-1.31), behavioral hostility (HR per SD: 1.13, confidence interval: 1.05-1.21), cognitive hostility (HR per SD: 1.26, confidence interval: 1.18-1.35), and irritability (HR per SD: 1.20, confidence interval: 1.12-1.29). The risk of peptic ulcer increased from the lowest to the highest quartile for all hostility measures (p for linear trend < .05). Hostility might be associated with an increased risk of peptic ulcer. Should these results be replicated, further studies would be needed to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Albumin treatment regimen for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome: a dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Salerno, Francesco; Navickis, Roberta J; Wilkes, Mahlon M

2015-11-25

Recommended treatment for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome consists of albumin and vasoconstrictor. The optimal albumin dose remains poorly characterized. This meta-analysis aimed to determine the impact of albumin dose on treatment outcomes. Clinical studies of type 1 hepatorenal syndrome treatment with albumin and vasoconstrictor were sought. Search terms included: hepatorenal syndrome; albumin; vasoconstrictor; terlipressin; midodrine; octreotide; noradrenaline; and norepinephrine. A meta-analysis was performed of hepatorenal syndrome reversal and survival in relation to albumin dose. Nineteen clinical studies with 574 total patients were included, comprising 8 randomized controlled trials, 8 prospective studies and 3 retrospective studies. The pooled percentage of patients achieving hepatorenal syndrome reversal was 49.5% (95% confidence interval, 40.0-59.1%). Increments of 100 g in cumulative albumin dose were accompanied by significantly increased survival (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.31; p = 0.023). A non-significant increase of similar magnitude in hepatorenal syndrome reversal was also observed (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.37; p = 0.10). Expected survival rates at 30 days among patients receiving cumulative albumin doses of 200, 400 and 600 g were 43.2% (95% confidence interval, 36.4-51.3%), 51.4% (95% confidence interval, 46.3-57.1%) and 59.0% (95% confidence interval, 51.9-67.2), respectively. Neither survival nor hepatorenal syndrome reversal was significantly affected by vasoconstrictor dose or type, treatment duration, age, baseline serum creatinine, bilirubin or albumin, baseline mean arterial pressure, or study design, size or time period. This meta-analysis suggests a dose-response relationship between infused albumin and survival in patients with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome. The meta-analysis provides the best current evidence on the potential role of albumin dose selection in improving outcomes of treatment for type 1 HRS and furnishes guidance for the design of future dose-ranging studies.

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in newborns at a university hospital from West Mexico.

PubMed

Corona-Rivera, Jorge Román; Bobadilla-Morales, Lucina; Corona-Rivera, Alfredo; Peña-Padilla, Christian; Olvera-Molina, Sandra; Orozco-Martín, Miriam A; García-Cruz, Diana; Ríos-Flores, Izabel M; Gómez-Rodríguez, Brian Gabriel; Rivas-Soto, Gemma; Pérez-Molina, J Jesús

2018-02-19

We determined the overall prevalence of typical orofacial clefts and the potential risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in a university hospital from West México. For the prevalence, 227 liveborn infants with typical orofacial clefts were included from a total of 81,193 births occurred during the period 2009-2016 at the "Dr. Juan I. Menchaca" Civil Hospital of Guadalajara (Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico). To evaluate potential risks, a case-control study was conducted among 420 newborns, including only those 105 patients with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (cases), and 315 infants without birth defects (controls). Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis expressed as adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals . The overall prevalence for typical orofacial clefts was 28 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-31.6), or 1 per 358 live births. The mean values for the prepregnancy weight, antepartum weight, and pre-pregnancy body mass index were statistically higher among the mothers of cases. Infants with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate had a significantly higher risk for previous history of any type of congenital anomaly (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.1), history of a relative with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (adjusted odds ratio: 19.6; 95% confidence interval: 8.2-47.1), and first-trimester exposures to progestogens (adjusted odds ratio: 6.8; 95% CI 1.8-25.3), hyperthermia (adjusted odds ratio: 3.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-10.6), and common cold (adjusted odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-11.9). These risks could have contributed to explain the high prevalence of orofacial clefts in our region of Mexico, emphasizing that except for history of relatives with cleft lip with or without cleft palate, most are susceptible of modification. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

Fixed ratio combinations of glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists with basal insulin: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liakopoulou, Paraskevi; Liakos, Aris; Vasilakou, Despoina; Athanasiadou, Eleni; Bekiari, Eleni; Kazakos, Kyriakos; Tsapas, Apostolos

2017-06-01

Basal insulin controls primarily fasting plasma glucose but causes hypoglycaemia and weight gain, whilst glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists induce weight loss without increasing risk for hypoglycaemia. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials to investigate the efficacy and safety of fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library as well as conference abstracts up to December 2016. We assessed change in haemoglobin A 1c , body weight, and incidence of hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal adverse events. We included eight studies with 5732 participants in the systematic review. Switch from basal insulin to fixed ratio combinations with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist was associated with 0.72% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c [95% confidence interval -1.03 to -0.41; I 2  = 93%] and 2.35 kg reduction in body weight (95% confidence interval -3.52 to -1.19; I 2  = 93%), reducing also risk for hypoglycaemia [odds ratio 0.70; 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.86; I 2  = 85%] but increasing incidence of nausea (odds ratio 6.89; 95% confidence interval 3.73-12.74; I 2  = 79%). Similarly, switching patients from treatment with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist to a fixed ratio combination with basal insulin was associated with 0.94% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c (95% confidence interval -1.11 to -0.77) and an increase in body weight by 2.89 kg (95% confidence interval 2.17-3.61). Fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists improve glycaemic control whilst balancing out risk for hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal side effects.

T-category remains an important prognostic factor for oropharyngeal carcinoma in the era of human papillomavirus.

PubMed

Mackenzie, P; Pryor, D; Burmeister, E; Foote, M; Panizza, B; Burmeister, B; Porceddu, S

2014-10-01

To determine prognostic factors for locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse and all-cause death in a contemporary cohort of locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone. OSCC patients treated with definitive radiotherapy between 2005 and 2010 were identified from a prospective head and neck database. Patient age, gender, smoking history, human papillomavirus (HPV) status, T- and N-category, lowest involved nodal level and gross tumour volume of the primary (GTV-p) and nodal (GTV-n) disease were analysed in relation to LRR, distant relapse and death by way of univariate and multivariate analysis. In total, 130 patients were identified, 88 HPV positive, with a median follow-up of 42 months. On multivariate analysis HPV status was a significant predictor of LRR (hazard ratio 0.15; 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.51) and death (hazard ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.59) but not distant relapse (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.22-1.27). Increasing T-category was associated with a higher risk of LRR (hazard ratio 1.80 for T3/4 versus T1/2; 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.99), death (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.77) and distant relapse (hazard ratio 1.35; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.83). Increasing GTV-p was associated with increased risk of distant relapse and death. N3 disease and low neck nodes were significant for LRR, distant relapse and death on univariate analysis only. Tumour HPV status was the strongest predictor of LRR and death. T-category is more predictive of distant relapse and may provide additional prognostic value for LRR and death when accounting for HPV status. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) as screening instruments for depression in patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hartung, Tim J; Friedrich, Michael; Johansen, Christoffer; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Faller, Herman; Koch, Uwe; Brähler, Elmar; Härter, Martin; Keller, Monika; Schulz, Holger; Wegscheider, Karl; Weis, Joachim; Mehnert, Anja

2017-11-01

Depression screening in patients with cancer is recommended by major clinical guidelines, although the evidence on individual screening tools is limited for this population. Here, the authors assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of 2 established screening instruments: the depression modules of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), in a representative sample of patients with cancer. This multicenter study was conducted with a proportional, stratified, random sample of 2141 patients with cancer across all major tumor sites and treatment settings. The PHQ-9 and HADS-D were assessed and compared in terms of diagnostic accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition diagnosis of major depressive disorder using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Oncology as the criterion standard. The diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-9 and HADS-D was fair for diagnosing major depressive disorder, with areas under the ROC curves of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.79) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77), respectively. The 2 questionnaires did not differ significantly in their areas under the ROC curves (P = .15). The PHQ-9 with a cutoff score ≥7 had the best screening performance, with a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 78%-89%) and a specificity of 61% (95% confidence interval, 59%-63%). The American Society of Clinical Oncology guideline screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 44% (95% confidence interval, 36%-51%) and a specificity of 84% (95% confidence interval, 83%-85%). In patients with cancer, the screening performance of both the PHQ-9 and the HADS-D was limited compared with a standardized diagnostic interview. Costs and benefits of routinely screening all patients with cancer should be weighed carefully. Cancer 2017;123:4236-4243. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal.

PubMed

Mocroft, Amanda; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Egger, Matthias; May, Margaret; Grabar, Sophie; Furrer, Hansjakob; Sabin, Caroline; Fatkenheuer, Gerd; Justice, Amy; Reiss, Peter; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Gill, John; Hogg, Robert; Bonnet, Fabrice; Kitahata, Mari; Staszewski, Schlomo; Casabona, Jordi; Harris, Ross; Saag, Michael

2009-04-15

The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

Out-of-range INR values and outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Nelson, Winnie W; Wang, Li; Baser, Onur; Damaraju, Chandrasekharrao V; Schein, Jeffrey R

2015-02-01

Although efficacious in stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation, many warfarin patients are sub-optimally managed. To evaluate the association of international normalized ratio control and clinical outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Adult non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients (≥18 years) initiating warfarin treatment were selected from the US Veterans Health Administration dataset between 10/2007 and 9/2012. Valid international normalized ratio values were examined from the warfarin initiation date through the earlier of the first clinical outcome, end of warfarin exposure or death. Each patient contributed multiple in-range and out-of-range time periods. The relative risk ratios of clinical outcomes associated with international normalized ratio control were estimated. 34,346 patients were included for analysis. During the warfarin exposure period, the incidence of events per 100 person-years was highest when patients had international normalized ratio <2:13.66 for acute coronary syndrome; 10.30 for ischemic stroke; 2.93 for transient ischemic attack; 1.81 for systemic embolism; and 4.55 for major bleeding. Poisson regression confirmed that during periods with international normalized ratio <2, patients were at increased risk of developing acute coronary syndrome (relative risk ratio: 7.9; 95 % confidence interval 6.9-9.1), ischemic stroke (relative risk ratio: 7.6; 95 % confidence interval 6.5-8.9), transient ischemic attack (relative risk ratio: 8.2; 95 % confidence interval 6.1-11.2), systemic embolism (relative risk ratio: 6.3; 95 % confidence interval 4.4-8.9) and major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 2.6; 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.0). During time periods with international normalized ratio >3, patients had significantly increased risk of major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 1.5; 95 % confidence interval 1.2-2.0). In a Veterans Health Administration non-valvular atrial fibrillation population, exposure to out-of-range international normalized ratio values was associated with significantly increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

Stroke preparedness in children: translating knowledge into behavioral intent: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ottawa, Cassandra; Sposato, Luciano A; Nabbouh, Fadl; Saposnik, Gustavo

2015-10-01

If translated into behavioral intent, improving stroke knowledge may potentially impact on better outcomes. Children are an attractive target population since they can drive familial behavioral changes. However, the impact of interventions on stroke knowledge among children is unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether educational interventions targeting children improve stroke knowledge and lead to behavioral changes. We searched Ovid, PubMed, and Embase between January 2000 and December 2014. We included studies written in English reporting the number of children aged 6-15 years undergoing educational interventions on stroke and providing the results for baseline and early and late postintervention tests. We compared the proportion of correct answers between baseline, early, and late responses for two endpoints: knowledge and behavioral intent. Of the initial 58 articles found, we included nine that met the inclusion criteria. Compared with baseline tests (51·7%, 95% confidence interval 40·9-62·4), there was improvement in stroke knowledge in early (74·0%, 95% confidence interval 64·4-82·5, P = 0·002) and late (67·3%, 95% confidence interval 55·4-78·2, P = 0·027) responses. There was improvement in the early (92·1%, 95% confidence interval 86·0-96·6, P < 0·001) and late (83·9%, 95% confidence interval 73·5-92·1, P = 0·001) responses for behavioral intent compared with the baseline assessment (63·8%, 95% confidence interval 53·5-73·4). Children are a potentially attractive target population for improvement in stroke knowledge and behavioral intent, both in the short and long term. Our findings may support the implementation of large-scale stroke educational initiatives targeting children. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Integrating palliative care across settings: A retrospective cohort study of a hospice home care programme for cancer patients.

PubMed

Tan, Woan Shin; Lee, Angel; Yang, Sze Yee; Chan, Susan; Wu, Huei Yaw; Ng, Charis Wei Ling; Heng, Bee Hoon

2016-07-01

Terminally ill patients at the end-of-life do transit between care settings due to their complex care needs. Problems of care fragmentation could result in poor quality of care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an integrated hospice home care programme on acute care service usage and on the share of home deaths. The retrospective study cohort comprised patients who were diagnosed with cancer, had an expected prognosis of 1 year or less, and were referred to a home hospice. The intervention group comprised deceased patients enrolled in the integrated hospice home care programme between September 2012 and June 2014. The historical comparison group comprised deceased patients who were referred to other home hospices between January 2007 and January 2011. There were 321 cases and 593 comparator subjects. Relative to the comparator group, the share of hospital deaths was significantly lower for programme participants (12.1% versus 42.7%). After adjusting for differences at baseline, the intervention group had statistically significantly lower emergency department visits at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.47), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.69) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.77) prior to death. Similar results held for the number of hospitalisations at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.58), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.82) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.88) prior to death. Our results demonstrated that by integrating services between acute care and home hospice care, a reduction in acute care service usage could occur. © The Author(s) 2016.

The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

2017-07-01

This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ significantly.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes.

PubMed

Borzych-Duzalka, Dagmara; Aki, T Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A

2017-01-06

Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes

PubMed Central

Aki, T. Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. Results In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Conclusions Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. PMID:27899416

Toxoplasma gondii exposure and epilepsy: A matched case-control study in a public hospital in northern Mexico.

PubMed

Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Rico-Almochantaf, Yazmin Del Rosario; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Quiñones-Canales, Gerardo; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Torres-González, Jorge; Ramírez-Valles, Eda Guadalupe; Minjarez-Veloz, Andrea

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine the association between infection with Toxoplasma gondii and epilepsy in patients attended to in a public hospital in the northern Mexican city of Durango. We performed an age- and gender-matched case-control study of 99 patients suffering from epilepsy and 99 without epilepsy. Sera of participants were analyzed for anti- T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies using commercially available enzyme-linked immunoassays. Seropositive samples to T. gondii were further analyzed for detection of T. gondii DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 10 (10.1%) of the 99 cases and in 6 (6.1%) of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-4.99; p = 0.43). High (> 150 IU/mL) levels of anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 6 of the 99 cases and in 4 of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-5.60; p = 0.74). Anti- T. gondii IgM antibodies were found in 2 of the 10 IgG seropositive cases, and in 2 of the 6 IgG seropositive controls (odds ratio = 0.50; 95% confidence interval: 0.05-4.97; p = 0.60). T. gondii DNA was not found in any of the 10 anti- T. gondii IgG positive patients. Bivariate analysis of IgG seropositivity to T. gondii and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and related Health Problems, 10th Edition codes of epilepsy showed an association between seropositivity and G40.1 code (odds ratio = 22.0; 95% confidence interval: 2.59-186.5; p = 0.008). Logistic regression analysis showed an association between T. gondii infection and consumption of goat meat (odds ratio = 6.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-34.64; p = 0.02), unwashed raw vegetables (odds ratio = 26.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.61-265.23; p = 0.006), and tobacco use (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-36.66; p = 0.04). Results suggest that T. gondii infection does not increase the risk of epilepsy in our setting; however, infection might be linked to specific types of epilepsy. Factors associated with T. gondii infection found in this study may aid in the design of preventive measures against toxoplasmosis.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a Transparent Antimicrobial Dressing for Managing Central Venous and Arterial Catheters in Intensive Care Units

PubMed Central

Bernatchez, Stéphanie F.; Ruckly, Stéphane; Timsit, Jean-François

2015-01-01

Objective To model the cost-effectiveness impact of routine use of an antimicrobial chlorhexidine gluconate-containing securement dressing compared to non-antimicrobial transparent dressings for the protection of central vascular lines in intensive care unit patients. Design This study uses a novel health economic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of using the chlorhexidine gluconate dressing versus transparent dressings in a French intensive care unit scenario. The 30-day time non-homogeneous markovian model comprises eight health states. The probabilities of events derive from a multicentre (12 French intensive care units) randomized controlled trial. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000 patients per dressing strategy are used for probabilistic sensitivity analysis and 95% confidence intervals calculations. The outcome is the number of catheter-related bloodstream infections avoided. Costs of intensive care unit stay are based on a recent French multicentre study and the cost-effectiveness criterion is the cost per catheter-related bloodstream infections avoided. The incremental net monetary benefit per patient is also estimated. Patients 1000 patients per group simulated based on the source randomized controlled trial involving 1,879 adults expected to require intravascular catheterization for 48 hours. Intervention Chlorhexidine Gluconate-containing securement dressing compared to non-antimicrobial transparent dressings. Results The chlorhexidine gluconate dressing prevents 11.8 infections /1,000 patients (95% confidence interval: [3.85; 19.64]) with a number needed to treat of 85 patients. The mean cost difference per patient of €141 is not statistically significant (95% confidence interval: [€-975; €1,258]). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is of €12,046 per catheter-related bloodstream infection prevented, and the incremental net monetary benefit per patient is of €344.88. Conclusions According to the base case scenario, the chlorhexidine gluconate dressing is more cost-effective than the reference dressing. Trial Registration This model is based on the data from the RCT registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01189682). PMID:26086783

Peer-driven contraceptive choices and preferences for contraceptive methods among students of tertiary educational institutions in Enugu, Nigeria.

PubMed

Iyoke, Ca; Ezugwu, Fo; Lawani, Ol; Ugwu, Go; Ajah, Lo; Mba, Sg

2014-01-01

To describe the methods preferred for contraception, evaluate preferences and adherence to modern contraceptive methods, and determine the factors associated with contraceptive choices among tertiary students in South East Nigeria. A questionnaire-based cross-sectional study of sexual habits, knowledge of contraceptive methods, and patterns of contraceptive choices among a pooled sample of unmarried students from the three largest tertiary educational institutions in Enugu city, Nigeria was done. Statistical analysis involved descriptive and inferential statistics at the 95% level of confidence. A total of 313 unmarried students were studied (194 males; 119 females). Their mean age was 22.5±5.1 years. Over 98% of males and 85% of females made their contraceptive choices based on information from peers. Preferences for contraceptive methods among female students were 49.2% for traditional methods of contraception, 28% for modern methods, 10% for nonpharmacological agents, and 8% for off-label drugs. Adherence to modern contraceptives among female students was 35%. Among male students, the preference for the male condom was 45.2% and the adherence to condom use was 21.7%. Multivariate analysis showed that receiving information from health personnel/media/workshops (odds ratio 9.54, 95% confidence interval 3.5-26.3), health science-related course of study (odds ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval 1.3-9.6), and previous sexual exposure prior to university admission (odds ratio 3.48, 95% confidence interval 1.5-8.0) all increased the likelihood of adherence to modern contraceptive methods. An overwhelming reliance on peers for contraceptive information in the context of poor knowledge of modern methods of contraception among young people could have contributed to the low preferences and adherence to modern contraceptive methods among students in tertiary educational institutions. Programs to reduce risky sexual behavior among these students may need to focus on increasing the content and adequacy of contraceptive information held by people through regular health worker-led, on-campus workshops.

ESTABLISHMENT OF A FIBRINOGEN REFERENCE INTERVAL IN ORNATE BOX TURTLES (TERRAPENE ORNATA ORNATA).

PubMed

Parkinson, Lily; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Klaphake, Eric; Dadone, Liza; Johnston, Matthew

2016-09-01

This study sought to establish a reference interval for fibrinogen in healthy ornate box turtles ( Terrapene ornata ornata). A total of 48 turtles were enrolled, with 42 turtles deemed to be noninflammatory and thus fitting the inclusion criteria and utilized to estimate a fibrinogen reference interval. Turtles were excluded based upon physical examination and blood work abnormalities. A Shapiro-Wilk normality test indicated that the noninflammatory turtle fibrinogen values were normally distributed (Gaussian distribution) with an average of 108 mg/dl and a 95% confidence interval of the mean of 97.9-117 mg/dl. Those turtles excluded from the reference interval because of abnormalities affecting their health had significantly different fibrinogen values (P = 0.313). A reference interval for healthy ornate box turtles was calculated. Further investigation into the utility of fibrinogen measurement for clinical usage in ornate box turtles is warranted.

Short-Term Estimates of Growth Using Curriculum-Based Measurement of Oral Reading Fluency: Estimating Standard Error of the Slope to Construct Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christ, Theodore J.

2006-01-01

Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading fluency (CBM-R) is an established procedure used to index the level and trend of student growth. A substantial literature base exists regarding best practices in the administration and interpretation of CBM-R; however, research has yet to adequately address the potential influence of measurement error.…

Long-term prediction of creep strains of mineral wool slabs under constant compressive stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnip, Ivan; Vaitkus, Saulius; Keršulis, Vladislovas; Vėjelis, Sigitas

2012-02-01

The results obtained in determining the creep strain of mineral wool slabs under compressive stress, used for insulating flat roofs and facades, cast-in-place floors, curtain and external basement walls, as well as for sound insulation of floors, are presented. The creep strain tests were conducted under a compressive stress of σ c =0.35 σ 10%. Interval forecasting of creep strain was made by extrapolating the creep behaviour and approximated in accordance with EN 1606 by a power equation and reduced to a linear form using logarithms. This was performed for a lead time of 10 years. The extension of the range of the confidence interval due to discount of the prediction data, i.e. a decrease in their informativity was allowed for by an additional coefficient. Analysis of the experimental data obtained from the tests having 65 and 122 days duration showed that the prediction of creep strains for 10 years can be made based on data obtained in experiments with durations shorter than the 122 days as specified by EN 13162. Interval prediction of creep strains (with a confidence probability of 90%) was based on using the mean square deviation of the actual direct observations of creep strains in logarithmic form to have the linear trend in a retrospective area.

“Magnitude-based Inference”: A Statistical Review

PubMed Central

Welsh, Alan H.; Knight, Emma J.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose We consider “magnitude-based inference” and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. Methods We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how “magnitude-based inference” is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. Results and Conclusions We show that “magnitude-based inference” is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with “magnitude-based inference” and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using “magnitude-based inference,” a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis. PMID:25051387

Associations Between Maternal Pregravid Obesity and Gestational Diabetes and the Timing of Pubarche in Daughters

PubMed Central

Kubo, Ai; Ferrara, Assiamira; Laurent, Cecile A.; Windham, Gayle C.; Greenspan, Louise C.; Deardorff, Julianna; Hiatt, Robert A.; Quesenberry, Charles P.; Kushi, Lawrence H.

2016-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether in utero exposure to maternal pregravid obesity and/or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) was associated with early puberty in girls. We used data from a longitudinal study of 421 mother-daughter pairs enrolled in an integrated health services organization, Kaiser Permanente Northern California (2005–2012). Girls aged 6–8 years were followed annually through ages 12–14 years. Onset of puberty was assessed using study clinic-based Tanner staging. We examined associations of self-reported pregravid obesity and maternal GDM with timing of the daughter's transition to pubertal maturation stage 2 or above for development of breasts and pubic hair, using accelerated failure time regression models with interval censoring to estimate time ratios and hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Maternal obesity (pregravid body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) ≥30) was associated with a daughter's earlier transition to breast and pubic hair stage 2+ in comparison with girls whose mothers had pregravid BMI <25. These associations were attenuated and not statistically significant after adjustment for covariates. Girls whose mothers had both pregravid BMI ≥25 and GDM were at higher risk of an earlier transition to pubic hair stage 2+ than those whose mothers had neither condition (adjusted time ratio = 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.83, 0.96; hazard ratio = 2.97, 95% confidence interval: 1.52, 5.83). These findings suggest that exposure to maternal obesity and hyperglycemia places girls at higher risk of earlier pubarche. PMID:27268032

Factorial Based Response Surface Modeling with Confidence Intervals for Optimizing Thermal Optical Transmission Analysis of Atmospheric Black Carbon

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate how thermal-optical transmission analysis (TOT) for refractory light-absorbing carbon in atmospheric particulate matter was optimized with empirical response surface modeling. TOT employs pyrolysis to distinguish the mass of black carbon (BC) from organic carbon (...

Site index prediction tables for black, scarlet and white oaks in southeastern Missouri.

Treesearch

Robert A. McQuilkin

1974-01-01

Site index prediction tables for black, scarlet, and white oaks for southeastern Missouri are presented based on site index/height regressions of data from 741 sectioned trees. Formulae for site index conversion between species and confidence intervals for mean stand site index estimates are also presented.

Application of an Individual-Based Transmission Hazard Model for Estimation of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in a Household Cohort.

PubMed

Petrie, Joshua G; Eisenberg, Marisa C; Ng, Sophia; Malosh, Ryan E; Lee, Kyu Han; Ohmit, Suzanne E; Monto, Arnold S

2017-12-15

Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children <18 years of age, were enrolled and followed during the 2010-2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A(H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall (Cox PH: 20%, 95% confidence interval: -57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% credible interval: -23, 58) and highest for children <9 years of age (Cox PH: 40%, 95% confidence interval: -49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% credible interval: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, although the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Characterization of Myocardial Repolarization Reserve in Adolescent Females With Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Padfield, Gareth J; Escudero, Carolina A; DeSouza, Astrid M; Steinberg, Christian; Gibbs, Karen; Puyat, Joseph H; Lam, Pei Yoong; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Sherwin, Elizabeth; Potts, James E; Sandor, George; Krahn, Andrew D

2016-02-09

Patients with anorexia nervosa exhibit abnormal myocardial repolarization and are susceptible to sudden cardiac death. Exercise testing is useful in unmasking QT prolongation in disorders associated with abnormal repolarization. We characterized QT adaptation during exercise in anorexia. Sixty-one adolescent female patients with anorexia nervosa and 45 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers performed symptom-limited cycle ergometry during 12-lead ECG monitoring. Changes in the QT interval during exercise were measured, and QT/RR-interval slopes were determined by using mixed-effects regression modeling. Patients had significantly lower body mass index than controls; however, resting heart rates and QT/QTc intervals were similar at baseline. Patients had shorter exercise times (13.7±4.5 versus 20.6±4.5 minutes; P<0.001) and lower peak heart rates (159±20 versus 184±9 beats/min; P<0.001). The mean QTc intervals were longer at peak exercise in patients (442±29 versus 422±19 ms; P<0.001). During submaximal exertion at comparable heart rates (114±6 versus 115±11 beats/min; P=0.54), the QTc interval had prolonged significantly more in patients than controls (37±28 versus 24±25 ms; P<0.016). The RR/QT slope, best described by a curvilinear relationship, was more gradual in patients than in controls (13.4; 95% confidence interval, 12.8-13.9 versus 15.8; 95% confidence interval, 15.3-16.4 ms QT change per 10% change in RR interval; P<0.001) and steepest in patients within the highest body mass index tertile versus the lowest (13.9; 95% confidence interval, 12.9-14.9 versus 12.3; 95% confidence interval, 11.3-13.3; P=0.026). Despite the absence of manifest QT prolongation, adolescent anorexic females have impaired repolarization reserve in comparison with healthy controls. Further study may identify impaired QT dynamics as a risk factor for arrhythmias in anorexia nervosa. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Accuracy assessment of percent canopy cover, cover type, and size class

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; S. Bain; R. C. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

Truth for vegetation cover percent and type is obtained from very large-scale photography (VLSP), stand structure as measured by size classes, and vegetation types from a combination of VLSP and ground sampling. We recommend using the Kappa statistic with bootstrap confidence intervals for overall accuracy, and similarly bootstrap confidence intervals for percent...

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

2013-01-01

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

Socioeconomic status inconsistency and risk of stroke among Japanese middle-aged women.

PubMed

Honjo, Kaori; Iso, Hiroyasu; Inoue, Manami; Sawada, Norie; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2014-09-01

Little research has been conducted to examine the effect of inconsistencies in socioeconomic status on cardiovascular health. In particular, no studies have been reported in Asian countries, including Japan, which is thought to have high socioeconomic status inconsistency among women. We examined the effect of status inconsistency between education level and occupation on stroke risk in a prospective 20-year study of 14 742 middle-aged Japanese women included in the prospective Japan Public Health Center-based (JPHC) Study Cohort I in 1990. Status inconsistency between education level and occupation was determined (qualified, overqualified, and underqualified), and the association with risk of stroke was examined. Cox proportional regression analysis was used to determine hazard ratios, which were adjusted for age, marital status, and geographical area. Adjusted hazard ratio for stroke in overqualified compared with qualified women was 2.06 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-3.78). Adjusted hazard ratios for stroke among highly educated manual workers and workers in service industry were 3.47 (95% confidence interval, 1.54-7.84) and 3.21 (95% confidence interval, 1.49-6.90), respectively, when compared with highly educated professionals/managers. High academic qualifications without an appropriate job could be a risk factor for stroke among Japanese women. Our result suggests that status inconsistency could be a potential explanation for the increased stroke risk among highly educated women. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Replication of long-bone length QTL in the F9-F10 LG,SM advanced intercross.

PubMed

Norgard, Elizabeth A; Jarvis, Joseph P; Roseman, Charles C; Maxwell, Taylor J; Kenney-Hunt, Jane P; Samocha, Kaitlin E; Pletscher, L Susan; Wang, Bing; Fawcett, Gloria L; Leatherwood, Christopher J; Wolf, Jason B; Cheverud, James M

2009-04-01

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping techniques are frequently used to identify genomic regions associated with variation in phenotypes of interest. However, the F(2) intercross and congenic strain populations usually employed have limited genetic resolution resulting in relatively large confidence intervals that greatly inhibit functional confirmation of statistical results. Here we use the increased resolution of the combined F(9) and F(10) generations (n = 1455) of the LG,SM advanced intercross to fine-map previously identified QTL associated with the lengths of the humerus, ulna, femur, and tibia. We detected 81 QTL affecting long-bone lengths. Of these, 49 were previously identified in the combined F(2)-F(3) population of this intercross, while 32 represent novel contributors to trait variance. Pleiotropy analysis suggests that most QTL affect three to four long bones or serially homologous limb segments. We also identified 72 epistatic interactions involving 38 QTL and 88 novel regions. This analysis shows that using later generations of an advanced intercross greatly facilitates fine-mapping of confidence intervals, resolving three F(2)-F(3) QTL into multiple linked loci and narrowing confidence intervals of other loci, as well as allowing identification of additional QTL. Further characterization of the biological bases of these QTL will help provide a better understanding of the genetics of small variations in long-bone length.

Stroke Self-Management Support Improves Survivors' Self-Efficacy and Outcome Expectation of Self-Management Behaviors.

PubMed

Lo, Suzanne H S; Chang, Anne M; Chau, Janita P C

2018-03-01

Evidence shows self-management programs are associated with improved recovery outcomes. This article reports on the effectiveness of a new nurse-led self-efficacy-based stroke self-management program. A randomized controlled trial of participants recruited from 3 acute stroke units was conducted. The intervention group received the 4-week stroke self-management program. The control group received usual care. All participants were assessed at baseline and 8 weeks after randomization. Data were analyzed using generalized estimating equations. Outcomes included self-efficacy, outcome expectation, and satisfaction with performance of self-management behaviors. One hundred twenty-eight participants were randomized with mean age, 67.46 years (SD, 11.95); 59% men; and mean duration poststroke, 45 days (SD, 26.16). At 8 weeks of follow-up in the intention-to-treat population, the intervention group improved significantly in self-efficacy (95% confidence interval, 2.55-12.45; P <0.01), outcome expectation (95% confidence interval, 5.47-14.01; P <0.01), and satisfaction with performance of self-management behaviors (95% confidence interval, 3.38-13.87; P <0.01) compared with the control. Similar results were obtained at 8 weeks of follow-up in the per-protocol population. The stroke self-management program improved survivors' self-efficacy, outcome expectation, and satisfaction with performance of self-management behaviors. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02112955. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effect of Sleep-Disordered Breathing on Appropriate Implantable Cardioverter-defibrillator Therapy in Patients With Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Kwon, Younghoon; Koene, Ryan J.; Kwon, Osung; Kealhofer, Jessica V.; Adabag, Selcuk; Duval, Sue

2017-01-01

Background Patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction are at increased risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is recommended to prevent sudden cardiac death in some of these patients. Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is highly prevalent in this population and may impact arrhythmogenicity. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies that assessed the impact of SDB on ICD therapy. Methods and Results Relevant prospective studies were identified in the Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases. Weighted risk ratios of the association between SDB and appropriate ICD therapies were estimated using random effects meta-analysis. Nine prospective cohort studies (n=1274) were included in this analysis. SDB was present in 52% of the participants. SDB was associated with a 55% higher risk of appropriate ICD therapies (45% versus 28%; risk ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.32–1.83). In a subgroup analysis based on the subtypes of SDB, the risk was higher in both central (risk ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–2.02) and obstructive (risk ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.01–2.03) sleep apnea. Conclusions SDB is associated with an increased risk of appropriate ICD therapy in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. PMID:28213507

Parent-Child Associations in Pedometer-Determined Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviour on Weekdays and Weekends in Random Samples of Families in the Czech Republic

PubMed Central

Sigmundová, Dagmar; Sigmund, Erik; Vokáčová, Jana; Kopčáková, Jaroslava

2014-01-01

This study investigates whether more physically active parents bring up more physically active children and whether parents’ level of physical activity helps children achieve step count recommendations on weekdays and weekends. The participants (388 parents aged 35–45 and their 485 children aged 9–12) were randomly recruited from 21 Czech government-funded primary schools. The participants recorded pedometer step counts for seven days (≥10 h a day) during April–May and September–October of 2013. Logistic regression (Enter method) was used to examine the achievement of the international recommendations of 11,000 steps/day for girls and 13,000 steps/day for boys. The children of fathers and mothers who met the weekend recommendation of 10,000 steps were 5.48 (95% confidence interval: 1.65; 18.19; p < 0.01) and 3.60 times, respectively (95% confidence interval: 1.21; 10.74; p < 0.05) more likely to achieve the international weekend recommendation than the children of less active parents. The children of mothers who reached the weekday pedometer-based step count recommendation were 4.94 times (95% confidence interval: 1.45; 16.82; p < 0.05) more likely to fulfil the step count recommendation on weekdays than the children of less active mothers. PMID:25026084

Racism, Segregation, and Risk of Obesity in the Black Women's Health Study

PubMed Central

Cozier, Yvette C.; Yu, Jeffrey; Coogan, Patricia F.; Bethea, Traci N.; Rosenberg, Lynn; Palmer, Julie R.

2014-01-01

We assessed the relation of experiences of racism to the incidence of obesity and the modifying impact of residential racial segregation in the Black Women's Health Study, a follow-up study of US black women. Racism scores were created from 8 questions asked in 1997 and 2009 about the frequency of “everyday” racism (e.g., “people act as if you are dishonest”) and of “lifetime” racism (e.g., unfair treatment on the job). Residential segregation was measured by linking participant addresses to 2000 and 2010 US Census block group data on the percent of black residents. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Based on 4,315 incident cases of obesity identified from 1997 through 2009, both everyday racism and lifetime racism were positively associated with increased incidence. The incidence rate ratios for women who were in the highest category of everyday racism or lifetime racism in both 1997 and 2009, relative to those in the lowest category, were 1.69 (95% confidence interval: 1.45, 1.96; Ptrend < 0.01) and 1.38 (95% confidence interval: 1.15, 1.66; Ptrend < 0.01), respectively. These associations were not modified by residential segregation. These results suggest that racism contributes to the higher incidence of obesity among African American women. PMID:24585257

Selecting Sensitive Parameter Subsets in Dynamical Models With Application to Biomechanical System Identification.

PubMed

Ramadan, Ahmed; Boss, Connor; Choi, Jongeun; Peter Reeves, N; Cholewicki, Jacek; Popovich, John M; Radcliffe, Clark J

2018-07-01

Estimating many parameters of biomechanical systems with limited data may achieve good fit but may also increase 95% confidence intervals in parameter estimates. This results in poor identifiability in the estimation problem. Therefore, we propose a novel method to select sensitive biomechanical model parameters that should be estimated, while fixing the remaining parameters to values obtained from preliminary estimation. Our method relies on identifying the parameters to which the measurement output is most sensitive. The proposed method is based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM). It was compared against the nonlinear least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to guide modelers on the pros and cons of our FIM method. We present an application identifying a biomechanical parametric model of a head position-tracking task for ten human subjects. Using measured data, our method (1) reduced model complexity by only requiring five out of twelve parameters to be estimated, (2) significantly reduced parameter 95% confidence intervals by up to 89% of the original confidence interval, (3) maintained goodness of fit measured by variance accounted for (VAF) at 82%, (4) reduced computation time, where our FIM method was 164 times faster than the LASSO method, and (5) selected similar sensitive parameters to the LASSO method, where three out of five selected sensitive parameters were shared by FIM and LASSO methods.

Education and the risk for Alzheimer's disease: sex makes a difference. EURODEM pooled analyses. EURODEM Incidence Research Group.

PubMed

Letenneur, L; Launer, L J; Andersen, K; Dewey, M E; Ott, A; Copeland, J R; Dartigues, J F; Kragh-Sorensen, P; Baldereschi, M; Brayne, C; Lobo, A; Martinez-Lage, J M; Stijnen, T; Hofman, A

2000-06-01

The hypothesis that a low educational level increases the risk for Alzheimer's disease remains controversial. The authors studied the association of years of schooling with the risk for incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease by using pooled data from four European population-based follow-up studies. Dementia cases were identified in a two-stage procedure that included a detailed diagnostic assessment of screen-positive subjects. Dementia and Alzheimer's disease were diagnosed by using international research criteria. Educational level was categorized by years of schooling as low (< or =7), middle (8-11), or high (> or =12). Relative risks (95% confidence intervals) were estimated by using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, study center, smoking status, and self-reported myocardial infarction and stroke. There were 493 (328) incident cases of dementia (Alzheimer's disease) and 28,061 (27,839) person-years of follow-up. Compared with women with a high level of education, those with low and middle levels of education had 4.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.5, 11.9) and 2.6 (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 7.1) times increased risks, respectively, for Alzheimer's disease. The risk estimates for men were close to 1.0. Finding an association of education with Alzheimer's disease for women only raises the possibility that unmeasured confounding explains the previously reported increased risk for Alzheimer's disease for persons with low levels of education.

Comparison of the Efficacy and Efficiency of the Use of Virtual Reality Simulation With High-Fidelity Mannequins for Simulation-Based Training of Fiberoptic Bronchoscope Manipulation.

PubMed

Jiang, Bailin; Ju, Hui; Zhao, Ying; Yao, Lan; Feng, Yi

2018-04-01

This study compared the efficacy and efficiency of virtual reality simulation (VRS) with high-fidelity mannequin in the simulation-based training of fiberoptic bronchoscope manipulation in novices. Forty-six anesthesia residents with no experience in fiberoptic intubation were divided into two groups: VRS (group VRS) and mannequin (group M). After a standard didactic teaching session, group VRS trained 25 times on VRS, whereas group M performed the same process on a mannequin. After training, participants' performance was assessed on a mannequin five consecutive times. Procedure times during training were recorded as pooled data to construct learning curves. Procedure time and global rating scale scores of manipulation ability were compared between groups, as well as changes in participants' confidence after training. Plateaus in the learning curves were achieved after 19 (95% confidence interval = 15-26) practice sessions in group VRS and 24 (95% confidence interval = 20-32) in group M. There was no significant difference in procedure time [13.7 (6.6) vs. 11.9 (4.1) seconds, t' = 1.101, P = 0.278] or global rating scale [3.9 (0.4) vs. 3.8 (0.4), t = 0.791, P = 0.433] between groups. Participants' confidence increased after training [group VRS: 1.8 (0.7) vs. 3.9 (0.8), t = 8.321, P < 0.001; group M = 2.0 (0.7) vs. 4.0 (0.6), t = 13.948, P < 0.001] but did not differ significantly between groups. Virtual reality simulation is more efficient than mannequin in simulation-based training of flexible fiberoptic manipulation in novices, but similar effects can be achieved in both modalities after adequate training.

Prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels on long-term mortality: insight from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III).

PubMed

Doran, Bethany; Guo, Yu; Xu, Jinfeng; Weintraub, Howard; Mora, Samia; Maron, David J; Bangalore, Sripal

2014-08-12

National and international guidelines recommend fasting lipid panel measurement for risk stratification of patients for prevention of cardiovascular events. However, the prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is uncertain. Patients enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey performed from 1988 to 1994, were stratified on the basis of fasting status (≥8 or <8 hours) and followed for a mean of 14.0 (±0.22) years. Propensity score matching was used to assemble fasting and nonfasting cohorts with similar baseline characteristics. The risk of outcomes as a function of LDL-C and fasting status was assessed with the use of receiver operating characteristic curves and bootstrapping methods. The interaction between fasting status and LDL-C was assessed with Cox proportional hazards modeling. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. One-to-one matching based on propensity score yielded 4299 pairs of fasting and nonfasting individuals. For the primary outcome, fasting LDL-C yielded prognostic value similar to that for nonfasting LDL-C (C statistic=0.59 [95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.61] versus 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.60]; P=0.73), and LDL-C by fasting status interaction term in the Cox proportional hazards model was not significant (Pinteraction=0.11). Similar results were seen for the secondary outcome (fasting versus nonfasting C statistic=0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66] versus 0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66]; P=0.96; Pinteraction=0.34). Nonfasting LDL-C has prognostic value similar to that of fasting LDL-C. National and international agencies should consider reevaluating the recommendation that patients fast before obtaining a lipid panel. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

The effect of a physiotherapy education compared with a non-healthcare education on the attitudes and beliefs of students towards functioning in individuals with back pain: an observational, cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Ryan, Cormac; Murphy, Dervla; Clark, Michael; Lee, Andrew

2010-06-01

To investigate the difference in attitudes: (1) between first and fourth year physiotherapy students towards functioning in individuals with back pain; and (2) between physiotherapy students and non-healthcare students towards functioning in individuals with back pain. Observational, cross-sectional study. Glasgow Caledonian University, Scotland, UK. First year physiotherapy (n=61) and non-healthcare students (n=61), and fourth year physiotherapy (n=62) and non-healthcare students (n=62). All participants completed the Health Care Providers' Pain and Impairment Relationship Scale (range 15 to 105). This questionnaire measures attitudes towards functioning in individuals with back pain. Fourth year physiotherapy students had more positive attitudes towards functioning in individuals with back pain than first year physiotherapy students [57.4 vs 66.6 (mean difference -9.2, 95% confidence interval -12.2 to -6.1, P<0.01)]. Similarly, fourth year non-healthcare students had more positive attitudes towards functioning in individuals with back pain compared with first year non-healthcare students [69.2 vs 65.3 (mean difference -3.9, 95% confidence interval -7.2 to -0.5, P=0.03)]. Physiotherapy students had more positive attitudes than non-healthcare students in the first year [66.6 vs 69.2 (mean difference -2.6, 95% confidence interval -5.5 to 0.4, P=0.08)] and the fourth year [57.4 vs 65.3 (mean difference -7.9, 95% confidence interval -11.4 to -4.4, P<0.01)] of study. These findings suggest that physiotherapy education brings about positive student attitudes towards functioning in individuals with back pain. This may be partly attributable to receiving a university degree education, but would appear to be further enhanced by specifically receiving a physiotherapy degree. This may facilitate students to become more evidence-based practitioners following qualification. Copyright 2009 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elevated lung cancer in younger adults and low concentrations of arsenic in water.

PubMed

Steinmaus, Craig; Ferreccio, Catterina; Yuan, Yan; Acevedo, Johanna; González, Francisca; Perez, Liliana; Cortés, Sandra; Balmes, John R; Liaw, Jane; Smith, Allan H

2014-12-01

Arsenic concentrations greater than 100 µg/L in drinking water are a known cause of cancer, but the risks associated with lower concentrations are less well understood. The unusual geology and good information on past exposure found in northern Chile are key advantages for investigating the potential long-term effects of arsenic. We performed a case-control study of lung cancer from 2007 to 2010 in areas of northern Chile that had a wide range of arsenic concentrations in drinking water. Previously, we reported evidence of elevated cancer risks at arsenic concentrations greater than 100 µg/L. In the present study, we restricted analyses to the 92 cases and 288 population-based controls who were exposed to concentrations less than 100 µg/L. After adjustment for age, sex, and smoking behavior, these exposures from 40 or more years ago resulted in odds ratios for lung cancer of 1.00, 1.43 (90% confidence interval: 0.82, 2.52), and 2.01 (90% confidence interval: 1.14, 3.52) for increasing tertiles of arsenic exposure, respectively (P for trend = 0.02). Mean arsenic water concentrations in these tertiles were 6.5, 23.0, and 58.6 µg/L. For subjects younger than 65 years of age, the corresponding odds ratios were 1.00, 1.62 (90% confidence interval: 0.67, 3.90), and 3.41 (90% confidence interval: 1.51, 7.70). Adjustments for occupation, fruit and vegetable intake, and socioeconomic status had little impact on the results. These findings provide new evidence that arsenic water concentrations less than 100 µg/L are associated with higher risks of lung cancer. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Postnatal depression in a community-based study of women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

March, Wendy A; Whitrow, Melissa J; Davies, Michael J; Fernandez, Renae C; Moore, Vivienne M

2018-07-01

Women with polycystic ovary syndrome are susceptible to depression and anxiety and so may also be at risk for postnatal depression. This study investigates whether women with polycystic ovary syndrome have an elevated risk of postnatal depression. Cross-sectional data for parous women (n = 566) were available from a birth cohort. Polycystic ovary syndrome was diagnosed using the Rotterdam criteria. Details of reproductive history, pregnancy, birth, and postnatal depression were obtained through structured interview. Comparisons were made between women with and without polycystic ovary syndrome using logistic regression analysis, including the investigation of interactions. A positive but statistically non-significant association was found between polycystic ovary syndrome and postnatal depression (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.9-2.9). Compared with their counterparts, women with polycystic ovary syndrome were substantially more likely: to have difficulty conceiving (odds ratio 5.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-9.4), to have conceived with medical assistance (odds ratio 11.6, 95% confidence interval 5.5-24.4), and to have pregnancy complications (gestational diabetes, pregnancy-induced hypertension, or preeclampsia; odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.1-3.5). Where women with polycystic ovary syndrome had a history of miscarriage or conceived with medical assistance, the combination interacted (p = 0.06 and p < 0.05, respectively), with over half of such women having postnatal depression. Although women with polycystic ovary syndrome may not have an excess risk of postnatal depression overall, those who had suffered a miscarriage or required medical assistance to conceive were at substantially elevated risk. Findings point to vulnerability inherent in polycystic ovary syndrome being amplified, either by stressful experiences on the pathway to pregnancy/childbirth or by specific fertility treatment regimens. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Age- and gender-specific time trend in risk of death of patients admitted with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Nieuwkamp, Dennis J; Vaartjes, Ilonca; Algra, Ale; Bots, Michiel L; Rinkel, Gabriël J E

2013-10-01

In a meta-analysis of population-based studies, case-fatality rates of subarachnoid hemorrhage have decreased worldwide by 17% between 1973 and 2002. However, age- and gender-specific decreases could not be determined. Because >10% of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage die before reaching the hospital, this suggests that the prognosis for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhage patients has improved even more. We assessed age- and gender-specific time trends of the risk of death for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. From the Dutch hospital discharge register (nationwide coverage), we identified 9403 patients admitted with subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2006. Changes in risk of death within this time frame and influence of age and gender were quantified with Poisson regression. The overall 30-day risk of death was 34.0% (95% confidence interval 33.1 ↔ 35.0%). After adjustment for age and gender, the annual decrease was 1.6% (95% confidence interval 0.5 ↔ 2.6%), which confers to a decrease of 13.4% (95% confidence interval 4.8 ↔ 21.2%) in the study period. The one-year risk of death decreased 2.0% per year (95% confidence interval 1.1 ↔ 2.9%). The decrease in risk of death was mainly found in the period 2003-2005, was not found for patients ≥ 65 years and was statistically significant for men, but not for women. The decrease in risk of death for patients admitted in the Netherlands with subarachnoid hemorrhage is overall considerable, but unevenly distributed over age and gender. Further research should focus on reasons for improved survival (improved diagnostics, improved treatment) and reasons why improvement has not occurred for women and for patients in older age categories. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

Confounding by Pre-Morbid Functional Status in Studies of Apparent Sex Differences in Severity and Outcome of Stroke

PubMed Central

Coulombe, Janie; Li, Linxin; Ganesh, Aravind; Silver, Louise; Rothwell, Peter M.

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose— Several studies have reported unexplained worse outcomes after stroke in women but none included the full spectrum of symptomatic ischemic cerebrovascular events while adjusting for prior handicap. Methods— Using a prospective population-based incident cohort of all transient ischemic attack/stroke (OXVASC [Oxford Vascular Study]) recruited between April 2002 and March 2014, we compared pre-morbid and post-event modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) in women and men and change in mRS score 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years after stroke. Baseline stroke-related neurological impairment was measured with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Results— Among 2553 patients (50.6% women) with a first transient ischemic attack/ischemic stroke, women had a worse handicap 1 month after ischemic stroke (age-adjusted odds ratio for mRS score, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.12–1.63). However, women also had a higher pre-morbid mRS score compared with men (age-adjusted odds ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.36–1.84). There was no difference in stroke severity when adjusting for age and pre-morbid mRS (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.90–1.35) and no difference in the pre-/poststroke change in mRS at 1 month (age-adjusted odds ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.82–1.21), 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years. Women had a lower mortality rate, and there was no sex difference in risk of recurrent stroke. Conclusions— We found no evidence of a worse outcome of stroke in women when adjusting for age and pre-morbid mRS. Failure to account for sex differences in pre-morbid handicap could explain contradictory findings in previous studies. Properties of the mRS may also contribute to these inconsistencies. PMID:28798261

Confounding by Pre-Morbid Functional Status in Studies of Apparent Sex Differences in Severity and Outcome of Stroke.

PubMed

Renoux, Christel; Coulombe, Janie; Li, Linxin; Ganesh, Aravind; Silver, Louise; Rothwell, Peter M

2017-10-01

Several studies have reported unexplained worse outcomes after stroke in women but none included the full spectrum of symptomatic ischemic cerebrovascular events while adjusting for prior handicap. Using a prospective population-based incident cohort of all transient ischemic attack/stroke (OXVASC [Oxford Vascular Study]) recruited between April 2002 and March 2014, we compared pre-morbid and post-event modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) in women and men and change in mRS score 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years after stroke. Baseline stroke-related neurological impairment was measured with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Among 2553 patients (50.6% women) with a first transient ischemic attack/ischemic stroke, women had a worse handicap 1 month after ischemic stroke (age-adjusted odds ratio for mRS score, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.63). However, women also had a higher pre-morbid mRS score compared with men (age-adjusted odds ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-1.84). There was no difference in stroke severity when adjusting for age and pre-morbid mRS (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.35) and no difference in the pre-/poststroke change in mRS at 1 month (age-adjusted odds ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.21), 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years. Women had a lower mortality rate, and there was no sex difference in risk of recurrent stroke. We found no evidence of a worse outcome of stroke in women when adjusting for age and pre-morbid mRS. Failure to account for sex differences in pre-morbid handicap could explain contradictory findings in previous studies. Properties of the mRS may also contribute to these inconsistencies. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s).

Accuracy of cited “facts” in medical research articles: A review of study methodology and recalculation of quotation error rate

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Previous reviews estimated that approximately 20 to 25% of assertions cited from original research articles, or “facts,” are inaccurately quoted in the medical literature. These reviews noted that the original studies were dissimilar and only began to compare the methods of the original studies. The aim of this review is to examine the methods of the original studies and provide a more specific rate of incorrectly cited assertions, or quotation errors, in original research articles published in medical journals. Additionally, the estimate of quotation errors calculated here is based on the ratio of quotation errors to quotations examined (a percent) rather than the more prevalent and weighted metric of quotation errors to the references selected. Overall, this resulted in a lower estimate of the quotation error rate in original medical research articles. A total of 15 studies met the criteria for inclusion in the primary quantitative analysis. Quotation errors were divided into two categories: content ("factual") or source (improper indirect citation) errors. Content errors were further subdivided into major and minor errors depending on the degree that the assertion differed from the original source. The rate of quotation errors recalculated here is 14.5% (10.5% to 18.6% at a 95% confidence interval). These content errors are predominantly, 64.8% (56.1% to 73.5% at a 95% confidence interval), major errors or cited assertions in which the referenced source either fails to substantiate, is unrelated to, or contradicts the assertion. Minor errors, which are an oversimplification, overgeneralization, or trivial inaccuracies, are 35.2% (26.5% to 43.9% at a 95% confidence interval). Additionally, improper secondary (or indirect) citations, which are distinguished from calculations of quotation accuracy, occur at a rate of 10.4% (3.4% to 17.5% at a 95% confidence interval). PMID:28910404

Right ventricular function in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: a community-based study.

PubMed

Mohammed, Selma F; Hussain, Imad; AbouEzzeddine, Omar F; Abou Ezzeddine, Omar F; Takahama, Hiroyuki; Kwon, Susan H; Forfia, Paul; Roger, Véronique L; Redfield, Margaret M

2014-12-23

The prevalence and clinical significance of right ventricular (RV) systolic dysfunction (RVD) in patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) are not well characterized. Consecutive, prospectively identified HFpEF (Framingham HF criteria, ejection fraction ≥50%) patients (n=562) from Olmsted County, Minnesota, underwent echocardiography at HF diagnosis and follow-up for cause-specific mortality and HF hospitalization. RV function was categorized by tertiles of tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion and by semiquantitative (normal, mild RVD, or moderate to severe RVD) 2-dimensional assessment. Whether RVD was defined by semiquantitative assessment or tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion ≤15 mm, HFpEF patients with RVD were more likely to have atrial fibrillation, pacemakers, and chronic diuretic therapy. At echocardiography, patients with RVD had slightly lower left ventricular ejection fraction, worse diastolic dysfunction, lower blood pressure and cardiac output, higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure, and more severe RV enlargement and tricuspid valve regurgitation. After adjustment for age, sex, pulmonary artery systolic pressure, and comorbidities, the presence of any RVD by semiquantitative assessment was associated with higher all-cause (hazard ratio=1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.77; P=0.03) and cardiovascular (hazard ratio=1.85; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.80; P=0.006) mortality and higher first (hazard ratio=1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.90; P=0.0006) and multiple (hazard ratio=1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-2.78; P=0.007) HF hospitalization rates. RVD defined by tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion values showed similar but weaker associations with mortality and HF hospitalizations. In the community, RVD is common in HFpEF patients, is associated with clinical and echocardiographic evidence of more advanced HF, and is predictive of poorer outcomes. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Lansoprazole use and tuberculosis incidence in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink: A population based cohort

PubMed Central

Yates, Tom A.; Tomlinson, Laurie A.; Bhaskaran, Krishnan; Langan, Sinead; Thomas, Sara; Smeeth, Liam

2017-01-01

Background Recent in vitro and animal studies have found the proton pump inhibitor (PPI) lansoprazole to be highly active against Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Omeprazole and pantoprazole have no activity. There is no evidence that, in clinical practice, lansoprazole can treat or prevent incident tuberculosis (TB) disease. Methods and findings We studied a cohort of new users of lansoprazole, omeprazole, or pantoprazole from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink to determine whether lansoprazole users have a lower incidence of TB disease than omeprazole or pantoprazole users. Negative control outcomes of myocardial infarction (MI) and herpes zoster were also studied. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to adjust for potential confounding by a wide range of factors. We identified 527,364 lansoprazole initiators and 923,500 omeprazole or pantoprazole initiators. Lansoprazole users had a lower rate of TB disease (n = 86; 10.0 cases per 100,000 person years; 95% confidence interval 8.1–12.4) than omeprazole or pantoprazole users (n = 193; 15.3 cases per 100,000 person years; 95% confidence interval 13.3–17.7), with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.68 (0.52–0.89). No association was found with MI (adjusted HR 1.04; 95% confidence interval 1.00–1.08) or herpes zoster (adjusted HR 1.03; 95% confidence interval 1.00–1.06). Limitations of this study are that we could not determine whether TB disease was due to reactivation of latent infection or a result of recent transmission, nor could we determine whether lansoprazole would have a beneficial effect if given to people presenting with TB disease. Conclusions In this study, use of the commonly prescribed and cheaply available PPI lansoprazole was associated with reduced incidence of TB disease. Given the serious problem of drug resistance and the adverse side effect profiles of many TB drugs, further investigation of lansoprazole as a potential antituberculosis agent is warranted. PMID:29161254

Impact of body mass index on mortality and hospitalisation of patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Ball, Jocasta; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Carrington, Melinda J; Wiley, Joshua F; Stewart, Simon

2018-04-01

Atrial fibrillation represents a substantial clinical and public health issue. The definitive impact of body mass index on prognosis of patients with chronic (persistent or permanent) atrial fibrillation remains undetermined. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of body mass index with health outcomes (mortality and re-hospitalisation) of patients with chronic atrial fibrillation. Using data from the Standard versus Atrial Fibrillation spEcific managemenT strategY (SAFETY) trial (a randomised controlled trial of home-based, atrial fibrillation-specific disease management), we performed post-hoc analyses of mortality and re-hospitalisation outcomes during minimum 24-month follow-up according to baseline body mass index profile. Of 297 participants (mean age 71±11 years, 47% female, mean body mass index 29.6±6.7 kg/m 2 ), 35.0% of participants were overweight (body mass index 25.0-29.9 kg/m 2 ) and 43.1% were obese (body mass index≥30 kg/m 2 ). During follow-up, n=42 died including 16/65 (24.6%) classified as normal body mass index, 16/104 (15.4%) classified as overweight and 10/128 (7.8%) classified as obese. Increasing body mass index was not associated with increased mortality but was associated with re-hospitalisation due to cardiovascular disease with greater length-of-stay (odds ratio 1.05; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.09, p=0.032). Obese individuals experienced increased unplanned admissions compared to overweight individuals (incidence rate ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.53-0.96, p=0.028), and increased cardiovascular-related (incidence rate ratio 0.58; 95% confidence interval 0.39-0.86, p=0.007) and all-cause admissions (incidence rate ratio 0.63; 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.89, p=0.008) compared to those classified as normal body mass index. Overweight and obesity were not associated with survival in patients with chronic atrial fibrillation but were associated with more frequent hospital care and prolonged stay.

Residential Proximity to Major Roadways and Risk of Incident Ischemic Stroke in NOMAS (The Northern Manhattan Study).

PubMed

Kulick, Erin R; Wellenius, Gregory A; Boehme, Amelia K; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S

2018-04-01

The evidence supporting the deleterious cardiovascular health effects of living near a major roadway is growing, although this association is not universal. In primary analyses, we hypothesized that residential proximity to a major roadway would be associated with incident ischemic stroke and that cardiovascular risk factors would modify that association. NOMAS (The Northern Manhattan Study) is an ongoing, population-based cohort study designed to measure cardiovascular risk factors, stroke incidence, and other outcomes in a multiethnic urban population. Recruitment occurred from 1993 to 2001 and participants are followed-up annually by telephone. Residential addresses at baseline were geocoded and Euclidean distance to nearest major roadway was estimated and categorized as in prior studies. We used Cox proportional hazard models to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of this distance to incidence of stroke and other outcomes, adjusting for sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors, year at baseline, and neighborhood socioeconomic status. We assessed whether these associations varied by age, sex, smoking status, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension. During a median follow-up period of 15 years (n=3287), 11% of participants were diagnosed with ischemic stroke. Participants living <100 m from a roadway had a 42% (95% confidence interval, 1.01-2.02) higher rate of ischemic stroke versus those living >400 m away. This association was more pronounced among noncurrent smokers (hazard ratio, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.26) and not evident among smokers (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.23-2.06). There was no clear pattern of association between proximity to major roadways and other cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, all-cause death, or vascular death. In this urban multiethnic cohort, we found evidence supporting that within-city variation in residential proximity to major roadway is associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke. An individual's smoking history modified this association, with the association remaining only among participants not currently smokers. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Stress and Achievement of Cardiovascular Health Metrics: The American Heart Association Life's Simple 7 in Blacks of the Jackson Heart Study.

PubMed

Brewer, LaPrincess C; Redmond, Nicole; Slusser, Joshua P; Scott, Christopher G; Chamberlain, Alanna M; Djousse, Luc; Patten, Christi A; Roger, Veronique L; Sims, Mario

2018-06-05

Ideal cardiovascular health metrics (defined by the American Heart Association Life's Simple 7 [LS7]) are suboptimal among blacks, which results in high risk of cardiovascular disease. We examined the association of multiple stressors with LS7 components among blacks. Using a community-based cohort of blacks (N=4383), we examined associations of chronic stress, minor stressors, major life events, and a cumulative stress score with LS7 components (smoking, diet, physical activity, body mass index, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose) and an LS7 composite score. Multivariable logistic regression assessed the odds of achieving intermediate/ideal levels of cardiovascular health adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, and biomedical factors. The LS7 components with the lowest percentages of intermediate/ideal cardiovascular health levels were diet (39%), body mass index (47%), and physical activity (51%). Higher chronic, minor, and cumulative stress scores were associated with decreased odds (odds ratio [OR]) of achieving intermediate/ideal levels for smoking (OR [95% confidence interval], 0.80 [0.73-0.88], 0.84 [0.75-0.94], and 0.81 [0.74-0.90], respectively). Participants with more major life events had decreased odds of achieving intermediate/ideal levels for smoking (OR, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.92) and fasting plasma glucose (OR, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.98). Those with higher scores for minor stressors and major life events were less likely to achieve intermediate or ideal LS7 composite scores (OR [95% confidence interval], 0.89 [0.81-0.97] and 0.91 [0.84-0.98], respectively). Blacks with higher levels of multiple stress measures are less likely to achieve intermediate or ideal levels of overall cardiovascular health (LS7 composite score), specific behaviors (smoking), and biological factors (fasting plasma glucose). © 2018 The Authors and Mayo Clinic. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Accuracy of cited "facts" in medical research articles: A review of study methodology and recalculation of quotation error rate.

PubMed

Mogull, Scott A

2017-01-01

Previous reviews estimated that approximately 20 to 25% of assertions cited from original research articles, or "facts," are inaccurately quoted in the medical literature. These reviews noted that the original studies were dissimilar and only began to compare the methods of the original studies. The aim of this review is to examine the methods of the original studies and provide a more specific rate of incorrectly cited assertions, or quotation errors, in original research articles published in medical journals. Additionally, the estimate of quotation errors calculated here is based on the ratio of quotation errors to quotations examined (a percent) rather than the more prevalent and weighted metric of quotation errors to the references selected. Overall, this resulted in a lower estimate of the quotation error rate in original medical research articles. A total of 15 studies met the criteria for inclusion in the primary quantitative analysis. Quotation errors were divided into two categories: content ("factual") or source (improper indirect citation) errors. Content errors were further subdivided into major and minor errors depending on the degree that the assertion differed from the original source. The rate of quotation errors recalculated here is 14.5% (10.5% to 18.6% at a 95% confidence interval). These content errors are predominantly, 64.8% (56.1% to 73.5% at a 95% confidence interval), major errors or cited assertions in which the referenced source either fails to substantiate, is unrelated to, or contradicts the assertion. Minor errors, which are an oversimplification, overgeneralization, or trivial inaccuracies, are 35.2% (26.5% to 43.9% at a 95% confidence interval). Additionally, improper secondary (or indirect) citations, which are distinguished from calculations of quotation accuracy, occur at a rate of 10.4% (3.4% to 17.5% at a 95% confidence interval).

Is use of homeopathy associated with poor prescribing in English primary care? A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Walker, Alex J; Croker, Richard; Bacon, Seb; Ernst, Edzard; Curtis, Helen J; Goldacre, Ben

2018-05-01

Objectives Prescribing of homeopathy still occurs in a small minority of English general practices. We hypothesised that practices that prescribe any homeopathic preparations might differ in their prescribing of other drugs. Design Cross-sectional analysis. Setting English primary care. Participants English general practices. Main outcome measures We identified practices that made any homeopathy prescriptions over six months of data. We measured associations with four prescribing and two practice quality indicators using multivariable logistic regression. Results Only 8.5% of practices (644) prescribed homeopathy between December 2016 and May 2017. Practices in the worst-scoring quartile for a composite measure of prescribing quality (>51.4 mean percentile) were 2.1 times more likely to prescribe homeopathy than those in the best category (<40.3) (95% confidence interval: 1.6-2.8). Aggregate savings from the subset of these measures where a cost saving could be calculated were also strongly associated (highest vs. lowest quartile multivariable odds ratio: 2.9, confidence interval: 2.1-4.1). Of practices spending the most on medicines identified as 'low value' by NHS England, 12.8% prescribed homeopathy, compared to 3.9% for lowest spenders (multivariable odds ratio: 2.6, confidence interval: 1.9-3.6). Of practices in the worst category for aggregated price-per-unit cost savings, 12.7% prescribed homeopathy, compared to 3.5% in the best category (multivariable odds ratio: 2.7, confidence interval: 1.9-3.9). Practice quality outcomes framework scores and patient recommendation rates were not associated with prescribing homeopathy (odds ratio range: 0.9-1.2). Conclusions Even infrequent homeopathy prescribing is strongly associated with poor performance on a range of prescribing quality measures, but not with overall patient recommendation or quality outcomes framework score. The association is unlikely to be a direct causal relationship, but may reflect underlying practice features, such as the extent of respect for evidence-based practice, or poorer stewardship of the prescribing budget.

Prevalence and associations of retinal vein occlusions: the Central India Eye and Medical Study.

PubMed

Jonas, Jost B; Nangia, Vinay; Khare, Anshu; Sinha, Ajit; Lambat, Sarang

2013-01-01

To determine the prevalence of retinal vein occlusions (RVOs) in rural central India. The population-based Central India Eye and Medical Study was performed in rural central India and included 4,711 subjects (30 years and older). Using fundus photographs, we assessed the prevalence of branch retinal vein occlusions and central retinal vein occlusions. An RVO was detected in 38 eyes (0.42 ± 0.07%; 95% confidence interval: 0.29-0.56) of 35 subjects (0.76 ± 0.13%; 95% confidence interval: 0.50-1.01). Prevalence of branch retinal vein occlusions was 0.66% ± 0.12% per subject (95% confidence interval: 0.42%-0.90%) and of central retinal vein occlusions was 0.11% ± 0.05% per subject (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.21%). In binary logistic analysis, presence of RVOs was associated with higher age (P = 0.007), systolic blood pressure (P < 0.001), blood concentration of urea (P = 0.02), and narrower anterior chamber angle (P < 0.03). The RVO prevalence was not significantly (all Ps > 0.10) associated with body mass index; blood concentrations of glucose, cholesterol, high-density lipoproteins, and creatinine; presence of diabetes mellitus, tuberculosis and malaria; nutritional parameters; alcohol consumption; refractive error; and optic disk size. The age-specific prevalence rates of RVOs were 0.18% ± 0.13%, 0.29% ± 0.15%, 0.89% ± 0.34%, 1.07% ± 0.36%, 2.72% ± 0.85%, and 3.64% ± 2.55%, respectively, for decadal age groups. In two (5%) eyes, RVO had caused low vision (visual acuity <20/60 and ≥20/400). In the rural agrarian low-income population of Central India, RVOs were detected in 0.8% of adults, with branch retinal vein occlusions being approximately seven times more common than central retinal vein occlusions. Main associated factors were higher age, blood pressure, urea blood concentration, and narrow chamber angle. RVOs were no major reason for visual impairment.

Fluconazole use and birth defects in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study.

PubMed

Howley, Meredith M; Carter, Tonia C; Browne, Marilyn L; Romitti, Paul A; Cunniff, Christopher M; Druschel, Charlotte M

2016-05-01

Low-dose fluconazole is used commonly to treat vulvovaginal candidiasis, a condition occurring frequently during pregnancy. Conflicting information exists on the association between low-dose fluconazole use among pregnant women and the risk of major birth defects. We used data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study to examine this association. The National Birth Defects Prevention Study is a multisite, population-based, case-control study that includes pregnancies with estimated delivery dates from 1997 to 2011. Information on fluconazole use in early pregnancy was collected by self-report from 31,645 mothers of birth defect cases and 11,612 mothers of unaffected controls. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for birth defects with 5 or more exposed cases; crude odds ratios and exact 95% confidence intervals were estimated for birth defects with 3-4 exposed cases. Of the 43,257 mothers analyzed, 44 case mothers and 6 control mothers reported using fluconazole. Six exposed infants had cleft lip with cleft palate, 4 had an atrial septal defect, and each of the following defects had 3 exposed cases: hypospadias, tetralogy of Fallot, d-transposition of the great arteries, and pulmonary valve stenosis. Fluconazole use was associated with cleft lip with cleft palate (odds ratio = 5.53; confidence interval = 1.68-18.24) and d-transposition of the great arteries (odds ratio = 7.56; confidence interval = 1.22-35.45). The associations between fluconazole and both cleft lip with cleft palate and d-transposition of the great arteries are consistent with earlier published case reports but not recent epidemiologic studies. Despite the larger sample size of the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, fluconazole use was rare. Further investigation is needed in large studies, with particular emphasis on oral clefts and conotruncal heart defects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atrial fibrillation and cognitive decline-the role of subclinical cerebral infarcts: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

PubMed

Chen, Lin Y; Lopez, Faye L; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Huxley, Rachel R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Loehr, Laura; Mosley, Thomas; Alonso, Alvaro

2014-09-01

The mechanism underlying the association of atrial fibrillation (AF) with cognitive decline in stroke-free individuals is unclear. We examined the association of incident AF with cognitive decline in stroke-free individuals, stratified by subclinical cerebral infarcts (SCIs) on brain MRI scans. We analyzed data from 935 stroke-free participants (mean age±SD, 61.5±4.3 years; 62% women; and 51% black) from 1993 to 1995 through 2004 to 2006 in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, a biracial community-based prospective cohort study. Cognitive testing (including the digit symbol substitution and the word fluency tests) was performed in 1993 to 1995, 1996 to 1998, and 2004 to 2006 and brain MRI scans in 1993 to 1995 and 2004 to 2006. During follow-up, there were 48 incident AF events. Incident AF was associated with greater annual average rate of decline in digit symbol substitution (-0.77; 95% confidence interval, -1.55 to 0.01; P=0.054) and word fluency (-0.80; 95% confidence interval, -1.60 to -0.01; P=0.048). Among participants without SCIs on brain MRI scans, incident AF was not associated with cognitive decline. In contrast, incident AF was associated with greater annual average rate of decline in word fluency (-2.65; 95% confidence interval, -4.26 to -1.03; P=0.002) among participants with prevalent SCIs in 1993 to 1995. Among participants who developed SCIs during follow-up, incident AF was associated with a greater annual average rate of decline in digit symbol substitution (-1.51; 95% confidence interval, -3.02 to -0.01; P=0.049). The association of incident AF with cognitive decline in stroke-free individuals can be explained by the presence or development of SCIs, raising the possibility of anticoagulation as a strategy to prevent cognitive decline in AF. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Automated Semantic Indexing of Figure Captions to Improve Radiology Image Retrieval

PubMed Central

Kahn, Charles E.; Rubin, Daniel L.

2009-01-01

Objective We explored automated concept-based indexing of unstructured figure captions to improve retrieval of images from radiology journals. Design The MetaMap Transfer program (MMTx) was used to map the text of 84,846 figure captions from 9,004 peer-reviewed, English-language articles to concepts in three controlled vocabularies from the UMLS Metathesaurus, version 2006AA. Sampling procedures were used to estimate the standard information-retrieval metrics of precision and recall, and to evaluate the degree to which concept-based retrieval improved image retrieval. Measurements Precision was estimated based on a sample of 250 concepts. Recall was estimated based on a sample of 40 concepts. The authors measured the impact of concept-based retrieval to improve upon keyword-based retrieval in a random sample of 10,000 search queries issued by users of a radiology image search engine. Results Estimated precision was 0.897 (95% confidence interval, 0.857–0.937). Estimated recall was 0.930 (95% confidence interval, 0.838–1.000). In 5,535 of 10,000 search queries (55%), concept-based retrieval found results not identified by simple keyword matching; in 2,086 searches (21%), more than 75% of the results were found by concept-based search alone. Conclusion Concept-based indexing of radiology journal figure captions achieved very high precision and recall, and significantly improved image retrieval. PMID:19261938

Impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 and 18 vaccination on prevalent infections and rates of cervical lesions after excisional treatment

PubMed Central

Hildesheim, Allan; Gonzalez, Paula; Kreimer, Aimee R.; Wacholder, Sholom; Schussler, John; Rodriguez, Ana C.; Porras, Carolina; Schiffman, Mark; Sidawy, Mary; Schiller, John T.; Lowy, Douglas R.; Herrero, Rolando

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines prevent HPV infection and cervical precancers. The impact of vaccinating women with a current infection or after treatment for an HPV-associated lesion is not fully understood. OBJECTIVES To determine whether HPV-16/18 vaccination influences the outcome of infections present at vaccination and the rate of infection and disease after treatment of lesions. STUDY DESIGN We included 1711 women (18–25 years) with carcinogenic human papillomavirus infection and 311 women of similar age who underwent treatment for cervical precancer and who participated in a community-based trial of the AS04-adjuvanted HPV-16/18 virus-like particle vaccine. Participants were randomized (human papillomavirus or hepatitis A vaccine) and offered 3 vaccinations over 6 months. Follow-up included annual visits (more frequently if clinically indicated), referral to colposcopy of high-grade and persistent low-grade lesions, treatment by loop electrosurgical excisional procedure when clinically indicated, and cytologic and virologic follow-up after treatment. Among women with human papillomavirus infection at the time of vaccination, we considered type-specific viral clearance, and development of cytologic (squamous intraepithelial lesions) and histologic (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia) lesions. Among treated women, we considered single-time and persistent human papillomavirus infection, squamous intraepithelial lesions, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2+. Outcomes associated with infections absent before treatment also were evaluated. Infection-level analyses were performed and vaccine efficacy estimated. RESULTS Median follow-up was 56.7 months (women with human papillomavirus infection) and 27.3 months (treated women). There was no evidence of vaccine efficacy to increase clearance of human papillomavirus infections or decrease incidence of cytologic/histologic abnormalities associated with human papillomavirus types present at enrollment. Vaccine efficacy for human papillomavirus 16/18 clearance and against human papillomavirus 16/18 progression from infection to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2+ were −5.4% (95% confidence interval −19,10) and 0.3% (95% confidence interval −69,41), respectively. Among treated women, 34.1% had oncogenic infection and 1.6% had cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2+ detected after treatment, respectively, and of these 69.8% and 20.0% were the result of new infections. We observed no significant effect of vaccination on rates of infection/lesions after treatment. Vaccine efficacy estimates for human papillomavirus 16/18 associated persistent infection and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2+ after treatment were 34.7% (95% confidence interval −131, 82) and −211% (95% confidence interval −2901, 68), respectively. We observed evidence for a partial and nonsignificant protective effect of vaccination against new infections absent before treatment. For incident human papillomavirus 16/18, human papillomavirus 31/33/45, and oncogenic human papillomavirus infections post-treatment, vaccine efficacy estimates were 57.9% (95% confidence interval −44, 88), 72.9% (95% confidence interval 29, 90), and 36.7% (95% confidence interval 1.5, 59), respectively. CONCLUSION We find no evidence for a vaccine effect on the fate of detectable human papillomavirus infections. We show that vaccination does not protect against infections/lesions after treatment. Evaluation of vaccine protection against new infections and resultant lesions warrants further consideration in future studies. PMID:26892991

Using Replicates in Information Retrieval Evaluation.

PubMed

Voorhees, Ellen M; Samarov, Daniel; Soboroff, Ian

2017-09-01

This article explores a method for more accurately estimating the main effect of the system in a typical test-collection-based evaluation of information retrieval systems, thus increasing the sensitivity of system comparisons. Randomly partitioning the test document collection allows for multiple tests of a given system and topic (replicates). Bootstrap ANOVA can use these replicates to extract system-topic interactions-something not possible without replicates-yielding a more precise value for the system effect and a narrower confidence interval around that value. Experiments using multiple TREC collections demonstrate that removing the topic-system interactions substantially reduces the confidence intervals around the system effect as well as increases the number of significant pairwise differences found. Further, the method is robust against small changes in the number of partitions used, against variability in the documents that constitute the partitions, and the measure of effectiveness used to quantify system effectiveness.

Occupational physical activity, overweight, and mortality: a follow-up study of 47,405 Norwegian women and men.

PubMed

Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Selmer, Randi; Sørensen, Marit; Skurtveit, Svetlana

2007-06-01

This population-based 24-year follow-up study evaluated the association of occupational physical activity (OPA) with overweight and mortality in 47,405 men and women, healthy at baseline, and reporting OPA as sedentary (reference), light, moderately heavy, or heavy. The adjusted odds ratio for overweight was slightly less than 1 for all categories of current nonsedentary work in men but increased by OPA in women. Only heavy OPA conferred a lower mortality with an adjusted rate ratio of 0.84 (95 % confidence interval, 0.76-0.92) for men and 0.69 (95 % confidence interval, 0.52-0.91) for women. This observational study, with OPA recorded in the 1970s and 1980s, suggested a slight protective effect for overweight by nonsedentary work for men and lower mortality by heavy OPA for both genders.

Arsenic exposure and oral cavity lesions in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Syed, Emdadul H; Melkonian, Stephanie; Poudel, Krishna C; Yasuoka, Junko; Otsuka, Keiko; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Parvez, Faruque; Slavkovich, Vesna; Graziano, Joseph H; Ahsan, Habibul; Jimba, Masamine

2013-01-01

To evaluate the relationship between arsenic exposure and oral cavity lesions among an arsenic-exposed population in Bangladesh. We carried out an analysis utilizing the baseline data of the Health Effects of Arsenic Exposure Longitudinal Study, which is an ongoing population-based cohort study to investigate health outcomes associated with arsenic exposure via drinking water in Araihazar, Bangladesh. We used multinomial regression models to estimate the risk of oral cavity lesions. Participants with high urinary arsenic levels (286.1 to 5000.0 μg/g) were more likely to develop arsenical lesions of the gums (multinomial odds ratio = 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 7.54), and tongue (multinomial odds ratio = 2.79; 95% confidence interval, 1.51 to 5.15), compared with those with urinary arsenic levels of 7.0 to 134.0 μg/g. Higher level of arsenic exposure was positively associated with increased arsenical lesions of the gums and tongue.

Occupation and the prevalence of respiratory health symptoms and conditions: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

PubMed

Mirabelli, Maria C; London, Stephanie J; Charles, Luenda E; Pompeii, Lisa A; Wagenknecht, Lynne E

2012-02-01

To examine associations between occupation and respiratory health in a large, population-based cohort of adults in the United States. Data from 15,273 participants, aged 45 to 64 years, in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study were used to examine associations of current or most recent job held with the prevalence of self-reported chronic cough, chronic bronchitis, wheezing, asthma, and measures of lung function collected by spirometry. Eleven percent of participants reported wheezing and 9% were classified as having airway obstruction. Compared with individuals in managerial and administrative jobs, increased prevalences of respiratory outcomes were observed among participants in selected occupations, including construction and extractive trades (wheezing, prevalence ratio = 1.92, 95% confidence interval = 1.35, 2.73; airway obstruction, prevalence ratio = 1.31, 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.65). Specific occupations are associated with adverse respiratory health.

Accounting for dropout bias using mixed-effects models.

PubMed

Mallinckrodt, C H; Clark, W S; David, S R

2001-01-01

Treatment effects are often evaluated by comparing change over time in outcome measures. However, valid analyses of longitudinal data can be problematic when subjects discontinue (dropout) prior to completing the study. This study assessed the merits of likelihood-based repeated measures analyses (MMRM) compared with fixed-effects analysis of variance where missing values were imputed using the last observation carried forward approach (LOCF) in accounting for dropout bias. Comparisons were made in simulated data and in data from a randomized clinical trial. Subject dropout was introduced in the simulated data to generate ignorable and nonignorable missingness. Estimates of treatment group differences in mean change from baseline to endpoint from MMRM were, on average, markedly closer to the true value than estimates from LOCF in every scenario simulated. Standard errors and confidence intervals from MMRM accurately reflected the uncertainty of the estimates, whereas standard errors and confidence intervals from LOCF underestimated uncertainty.

Using Replicates in Information Retrieval Evaluation

PubMed Central

VOORHEES, ELLEN M.; SAMAROV, DANIEL; SOBOROFF, IAN

2018-01-01

This article explores a method for more accurately estimating the main effect of the system in a typical test-collection-based evaluation of information retrieval systems, thus increasing the sensitivity of system comparisons. Randomly partitioning the test document collection allows for multiple tests of a given system and topic (replicates). Bootstrap ANOVA can use these replicates to extract system-topic interactions—something not possible without replicates—yielding a more precise value for the system effect and a narrower confidence interval around that value. Experiments using multiple TREC collections demonstrate that removing the topic-system interactions substantially reduces the confidence intervals around the system effect as well as increases the number of significant pairwise differences found. Further, the method is robust against small changes in the number of partitions used, against variability in the documents that constitute the partitions, and the measure of effectiveness used to quantify system effectiveness. PMID:29905334

The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, Steven

People are constantly inventing and adopting new energy-using devices to make their lives more comfortable, convenient, connected, and entertaining. This study aggregates 134 energy-using household devices, not including major appliances, into categories based on the energy service they provide. By 2006, there were 43 energy-using devices in the average U.S. household that used over 4,700 kWh of electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy-using devices to energy price, household income, and the cost of these devices. This analysis finds that the elasticity of demand for these devices with respect to energy price is -0.52 with a 90% confidence interval of -1.04 to -0.01. The elasticity of demand to income is 0.52 (a 90% confidence interval of [-0.42, 1.46]. The cost of these devices was also statistically significant.

Estimation of treatment effect in a subpopulation: An empirical Bayes approach.

PubMed

Shen, Changyu; Li, Xiaochun; Jeong, Jaesik

2016-01-01

It is well recognized that the benefit of a medical intervention may not be distributed evenly in the target population due to patient heterogeneity, and conclusions based on conventional randomized clinical trials may not apply to every person. Given the increasing cost of randomized trials and difficulties in recruiting patients, there is a strong need to develop analytical approaches to estimate treatment effect in subpopulations. In particular, due to limited sample size for subpopulations and the need for multiple comparisons, standard analysis tends to yield wide confidence intervals of the treatment effect that are often noninformative. We propose an empirical Bayes approach to combine both information embedded in a target subpopulation and information from other subjects to construct confidence intervals of the treatment effect. The method is appealing in its simplicity and tangibility in characterizing the uncertainty about the true treatment effect. Simulation studies and a real data analysis are presented.

Frequency of depression in type 2 diabetes mellitus and an analysis of predictive factors.

PubMed

Arshad, Abdul Rehman; Alvi, Kamran Yousaf

2016-04-01

To determine frequency of depression in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and to identify predictive factors. The observational study was carried out at 1 Mountain Medical Battalion, Bagh, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan, from June 2013 to May 2014, and comprised type 2 diabetic patients who were not using anti-depressants and did not have history of other psychiatric illnesses. Demographic data, duration of diabetes, presence of hypertension and type of treatment were recorded and body mass index was calculated. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, translated into Urdu, was administered during face-to-face interviews. Scores >5 indicated depression, which was classified into different grades of severity using standard cut-off values. Of the 133 patients, 51(38.35%) were depressed. Depression was mild in 34(26%), moderate in 12(9.6%), moderately severe in 4(2.9%) and severe in 1(0.7%) patient. On univariate binary logistic regression, female gender (odds ratio=3.07; 95% confidence interval = 1.43, 6.59), lesser education (odds ratio = 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 0.97) shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.80, 0.96) and higher body mass index (odds ratio=1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.25) were significantly associated with depression. Only shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.90; 95% confidence interval = 0.82, 0.99) remained significant after adjustment for confounders. Age, level of education, glycaemic control and type of treatment did not predict depression. A significant proportion of type 2 diabetics were depressed. Shorter duration of diabetes reliably predicted depression in these patients.

EXACT DISTRIBUTIONS OF INTRACLASS CORRELATION AND CRONBACH'S ALPHA WITH GAUSSIAN DATA AND GENERAL COVARIANCE.

PubMed

Kistner, Emily O; Muller, Keith E

2004-09-01

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. New F approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds.

A prospective observational cohort study to assess the incidence of acute otitis media among children 0-5 years of age in Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Lanzieri, Tatiana M; Cunha, Clóvis Arns da; Cunha, Rejane B; Arguello, D Fermin; Devadiga, Raghavendra; Sanchez, Nervo; Barria, Eduardo Ortega

To estimate acute otitis media incidence among young children and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers in a southern Brazilian city. Prospective cohort study including children 0-5 years of age registered at a private pediatric practice. Acute otitis media episodes diagnosed by a pediatrician and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers were assessed during a 12-month follow-up. During September 2008-March 2010, of 1,136 children enrolled in the study, 1074 (95%) were followed: 55.0% were ≤2 years of age, 52.3% males, 94.7% white, and 69.2% had previously received pneumococcal vaccine in private clinics. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 95.7 (95% confidence interval: 77.2-117.4) overall, 105.5 (95% confidence interval: 78.3-139.0) in children ≤2 years of age and 63.6 (95% confidence interval: 43.2-90.3) in children 3-5 years of age. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 86.3 (95% confidence interval: 65.5-111.5) and 117.1 (95% confidence interval: 80.1-165.3) among vaccinated and unvaccinated children, respectively. Nearly 68.9% of parents reported worsening of their overall quality of life. Acute otitis media incidence among unvaccinated children in our study may be useful as baseline data to assess impact of pneumococcal vaccine introduction in the Brazilian National Immunization Program in April 2010. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

Treesearch

Donald W. Seegrist

1974-01-01

A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.; ...

2017-09-30

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Web-based education in systems-based practice: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Kerfoot, B Price; Conlin, Paul R; Travison, Thomas; McMahon, Graham T

2007-02-26

All accredited US residency programs are expected to offer curricula and evaluate their residents in 6 general competencies. Medical schools are now adopting similar competency frameworks. We investigated whether a Web-based program could effectively teach and assess elements of systems-based practice. We enrolled 276 medical students and 417 residents in the fields of surgery, medicine, obstetrics-gynecology, and emergency medicine in a 9-week randomized, controlled, crossover educational trial. Participants were asked to sequentially complete validated Web-based modules on patient safety and the US health care system. The primary outcome measure was performance on a 26-item validated online test administered before, between, and after the participants completed the modules. Six hundred forty (92.4%) of the 693 enrollees participated in the study; 512 (80.0%) of the participants completed all 3 tests. Participants' test scores improved significantly after completion of the first module (P<.001). Overall learning from the 9-week Web-based program, as measured by the increase in scores (posttest scores minus pretest scores), was 16 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 14-17 percentage points; P<.001) in public safety topics and 22 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 20-23 percentage points; P<.001) in US health care system topics. A Web-based educational program on systems-based practice competencies generated significant and durable learning across a broad range of medical students and residents.

Lower Leg Injury Reference Values and Risk Curves from Survival Analysis for Male and Female Dummies: Meta-analysis of Postmortem Human Subject Tests.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Pintar, Frank A; Banerjee, Anjishnu

2015-01-01

Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot-ankle-leg complex. Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot-ankle-leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies. Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels. These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments.

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of the Tamarisk Leaf Beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) on the diet of insectivorous birds along the Dolores River in Southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, Sarah L.; van Riper, Charles

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of a biologic control agent, the tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), on native avifauna in southwestern Colorado, specifically, addressing whether and to what degree birds eat tamarisk leaf beetles. In 2010, we documented avian foraging behavior, characterized the arthropod community, sampled bird diets, and undertook an experiment to determine whether tamarisk leaf beetles are palatable to birds. We observed that tamarisk leaf beetles compose 24.0 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 19.9-27.4 percent) and 35.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 32.4-45.1 percent) of arthropod abundance and biomass in the study area, respectively. Birds ate few tamarisk leaf beetles, despite a superabundance of D. carinulata in the environment. The frequency of occurrence of tamarisk leaf beetles in bird diets was 2.1 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 1.3- 2.9 percent) by abundance and 3.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 2.6-4.2 percent) by biomass. Thus, tamarisk leaf beetles probably do not contribute significantly to the diets of birds in areas where biologic control of tamarisk is being applied.

Bendectin and human congenital malformations.

PubMed

Shiono, P H; Klebanoff, M A

1989-08-01

The relationship between Bendectin exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the occurrence of congenital malformations was prospectively studied in 31,564 newborns registered in the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Birth Defects Study. The odds ratio for any major malformation and Bendectin use was 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.8-1.4). There were 58 categories of congenital malformations; three of them were statistically associated with Bendectin exposure (microcephaly--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.8-15.6; congenital cataract--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.2-24.3; lung malformations (ICD-8 codes 484.4-484.8)--odds ratio = 4.6, 95% confidence interval = 1.9-10.9). This is exactly the number of associations that would be expected by chance. An independent study (the Collaborative Perinatal Project) was used to determine whether vomiting during pregnancy in the absence of Bendectin use was associated with these three malformations. Two of the three (microcephaly and cataract) had strong positive associations with vomiting in the absence of Bendectin use. We conclude that there is no increase in the overall rate of major malformations after exposure to Bendectin and that the three associations found between Bendectin and individual malformations are unlikely to be causal.

Contribution of Established Stroke Risk Factors to the Burden of Stroke in Young Adults.

PubMed

Aigner, Annette; Grittner, Ulrike; Rolfs, Arndt; Norrving, Bo; Siegerink, Bob; Busch, Markus A

2017-07-01

As stroke in young adults is assumed to have different etiologies and risk factors than in older populations, the aim of this study was to examine the contribution of established potentially modifiable cardiovascular risk factors to the burden of stroke in young adults. A German nationwide case-control study based on patients enrolled in the SIFAP1 study (Stroke In Young Fabry Patients) 2007 to 2010 and controls from the population-based GEDA study (German Health Update) 2009 to 2010 was performed. Cases were 2125 consecutive patients aged 18 to 55 years with acute first-ever stroke from 26 clinical stroke centers; controls (age- and sex-matched, n=8500, without previous stroke) were from a nationwide community sample. Adjusted population-attributable risks of 8 risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, smoking, heavy episodic alcohol consumption, low physical activity, and obesity) and their combinations for all stroke, ischemic stroke, and primary intracerebral hemorrhage were calculated. Low physical activity and hypertension were the most important risk factors, accounting for 59.7% (95% confidence interval, 56.3-63.2) and 27.1% (95% confidence interval, 23.6-30.6) of all strokes, respectively. All 8 risk factors combined explained 78.9% (95% confidence interval, 76.3-81.4) of all strokes. Population-attributable risks of all risk factors were similar for all ischemic stroke subtypes. Population-attributable risks of most risk factors were higher in older age groups and in men. Modifiable risk factors previously established in older populations also account for a large part of stroke in younger adults, with 4 risk factors explaining almost 80% of stroke risk. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00414583. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Ethnic minority inequalities in access to treatments for schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorders: findings from a nationally representative cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Das-Munshi, Jayati; Bhugra, Dinesh; Crawford, Mike J

2018-04-18

Ethnic minority service users with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorders may experience inequalities in care. There have been no recent studies assessing access to evidence-based treatments for psychosis amongst the main ethnic minority groups in the UK. Data from nationally representative surveys from England and Wales, for 10,512 people with a clinical diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders, were used for analyses. Multi-level multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess ethnic minority inequalities in access to pharmacological treatments, psychological interventions, shared decision making and care planning, taking into account a range of potential confounders. Compared with white service users, black service users were more likely prescribed depot/injectable antipsychotics (odds ratio 1.56 (95% confidence interval 1.33-1.84)). Black service users with treatment resistance were less likely to be prescribed clozapine (odds ratio 0.56 (95% confidence interval 0.39-0.79)). All ethnic minority service users, except those of mixed ethnicity, were less likely to be offered cognitive behavioural therapy, compared to white service users. Black service users were less likely to have been offered family therapy, and Asian service users were less likely to have received copies of care plans (odds ratio 0.50 (95% confidence interval 0.33-0.76)), compared to white service users. There were no clinician-reported differences in shared decision making across each of the ethnic minority groups. Relative to white service users, ethnic minority service users with psychosis were generally less likely to be offered a range of evidence-based treatments for psychosis, which included pharmacological and psychological interventions as well as involvement in care planning.

Gaussian process regression for tool wear prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Dongdong; Chen, Yongjie; Li, Ning

2018-05-01

To realize and accelerate the pace of intelligent manufacturing, this paper presents a novel tool wear assessment technique based on the integrated radial basis function based kernel principal component analysis (KPCA_IRBF) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) for real-timely and accurately monitoring the in-process tool wear parameters (flank wear width). The KPCA_IRBF is a kind of new nonlinear dimension-increment technique and firstly proposed for feature fusion. The tool wear predictive value and the corresponding confidence interval are both provided by utilizing the GPR model. Besides, GPR performs better than artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM) in prediction accuracy since the Gaussian noises can be modeled quantitatively in the GPR model. However, the existence of noises will affect the stability of the confidence interval seriously. In this work, the proposed KPCA_IRBF technique helps to remove the noises and weaken its negative effects so as to make the confidence interval compressed greatly and more smoothed, which is conducive for monitoring the tool wear accurately. Moreover, the selection of kernel parameter in KPCA_IRBF can be easily carried out in a much larger selectable region in comparison with the conventional KPCA_RBF technique, which helps to improve the efficiency of model construction. Ten sets of cutting tests are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the presented tool wear assessment technique. The experimental results show that the in-process flank wear width of tool inserts can be monitored accurately by utilizing the presented tool wear assessment technique which is robust under a variety of cutting conditions. This study lays the foundation for tool wear monitoring in real industrial settings.

Determinants of preterm birth rates in Canada from 1981 through 1983 and from 1992 through 1994.

PubMed

Joseph, K S; Kramer, M S; Marcoux, S; Ohlsson, A; Wen, S W; Allen, A; Platt, R

1998-11-12

The rates of preterm birth have increased in many countries, including Canada, over the past 20 years. However, the factors underlying the increase are poorly understood. We used data from the Statistics Canada live-birth and stillbirth data bases to determine the effects of changes in the frequency of multiple births, registration of births occurring very early in gestation, patterns of obstetrical intervention, and use of ultrasonographic dating of gestational age on the rates of preterm birth in Canada from 1981 through 1983 and from 1992 through 1994. All births in 9 of the 12 provinces and territories of Canada were included. Logistic-regression analysis and Poisson regression analysis were used to estimate changes between the two three-year periods, after adjustment for the above-mentioned determinants of the likelihood of preterm births. Preterm births increased from 6.3 percent of live births in 1981 through 1983 to 6.8 percent in 1992 through 1994, a relative increase of 9 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 7 to 10 percent). Among singleton births, preterm births increased by 5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 3 to 6 percent). Multiple births increased from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent of all live births; the rates of preterm birth among live births resulting from multiple gestations increased by 25 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 21 to 28 percent). Adjustment for the determinants of the likelihood of preterm birth reduced the increase in the rate of preterm birth to 3 percent among all live births and 1 percent among singleton births. The recent increase in preterm births in Canada is largely attributable to changes in the frequency of multiple births, obstetrical intervention, and the use of ultrasound-based estimates of gestational age.

The number of microvascular complications is associated with an increased risk for severity of periodontitis in type 2 diabetes patients: Results of a multicenter hospital-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Nitta, Hiroshi; Katagiri, Sayaka; Nagasawa, Toshiyuki; Izumi, Yuichi; Ishikawa, Isao; Izumiyama, Hajime; Uchimura, Isao; Kanazawa, Masao; Chiba, Hiroshige; Matsuo, Akira; Utsunomiya, Kazunori; Tanabe, Haruyasu; Takei, Izumi; Asanami, Soichiro; Kajio, Hiroshi; Ono, Toaki; Hayashi, Yoichi; Ueki, Kiichi; Tsuji, Masatomi; Kurachi, Yoichi; Yamanouchi, Toshikazu; Ichinokawa, Yoshimi; Inokuchi, Toshiki; Fukui, Akiko; Miyazaki, Shigeru; Miyauchi, Takashi; Kawahara, Reiko; Ogiuchi, Hideki; Yoshioka, Narihito; Negishi, Jun; Mori, Masatomo; Mogi, Kenji; Saito, Yasushi; Tanzawa, Hideki; Nishikawa, Tetsuo; Takada, Norihiko; Nanjo, Kishio; Morita, Nobuo; Nakamura, Naoto; Kanamura, Narisato; Makino, Hirofumi; Nishimura, Fusanori; Kobayashi, Kunihisa; Higuchi, Yoshinori; Sakata, Toshiie; Yanagisawa, Shigetaka; Tei, Chuwa; Ando, Yuichi; Hanada, Nobuhiro; Inoue, Shuji

2017-09-01

To explore the relationships between periodontitis and microvascular complications as well as glycemic control in type 2 diabetes patients. This multicenter, hospital-based, cross-sectional study included 620 patients with type 2 diabetes. We compared the prevalence and severity of periodontitis between patients with ≥1 microvascular complication and those without microvascular complications. We also compared the prevalence and severity of periodontitis among patients with different degrees of glycemic control. After adjusting for confounding factors, multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the severity of periodontitis was significantly associated with the number of microvascular complications (odds ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1-1.6), glycated hemoglobin ≥8.0% (64 mmol/mol; odds ratio 1.6; 95% confidence interval 1.1-2.3), and older age (≥50 years; odds ratio 1.7; 95% confidence interval 1.1-2.6). However, the prevalence of periodontitis was not significantly associated with the number of microvascular complications, but was associated with male sex, high glycated hemoglobin (≥8.0% [64 mmol/mol]), older age (≥40 years), longer duration of diabetes (≥15 years) and fewer teeth (≤25). Furthermore, propensity score matching for age, sex, diabetes duration and glycated hemoglobin showed that the incidence of severe periodontitis was significantly higher among patients with microvascular complications than among those without microvascular complications (P < 0.05). The number of microvascular complications is a risk factor for more severe periodontitis in patients with type 2 diabetes, whereas poor glycemic control is a risk factor for increased prevalence and severity of periodontitis. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association for the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

A nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study of the risk of uterine, ovarian and breast cancer in women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Shen, Cheng-Che; Yang, Albert C; Hung, Jeng-Hsiu; Hu, Li-Yu; Tsai, Shih-Jen

2015-01-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is one of the most common endocrine disorders among women of reproductive age. We used a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study to explore the relationship between PCOS and the subsequent development of gynecological cancers including uterine, breast, or ovarian cancer. We identified subjects who were diagnosed with PCOS between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2004, in the Taiwan National Health Insurance (NHI) Research Database. A comparison cohort was constructed for patients without known PCOS who were also matched according to age. All PCOS and control patients were observed until diagnosed with breast cancer, ovarian cancer, or uterine cancer or until death, withdrawal from the NHI system, or December 31, 2009. The PCOS cohort consisted of 3,566 patients, and the comparison cohort consisted of 14,264 matched control patients without PCOS. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of uterine cancer and breast cancer in subjects with PCOS were higher (HR: 8.42 [95% confidence interval: 1.62-43.89] and HR: 1.99 [95% confidence interval: 1.05-3.77], respectively) than that of the controls during the follow-up. With the Monte Carlo method, only the mean adjusted HR of 1,000 comparisons for developing uterine cancer during the follow-up period was greater for the PCOS group than for the control groups (HR: 4.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.57-14.11). PCOS might increase the risk of subsequent newly diagnosed uterine cancer. It is critical that further large-scale, well-designed studies be conducted to confirm the association between PCOS and gynecological cancer risk. ©AlphaMed Press.

Estimating numbers of greater prairie-chickens using mark-resight techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clifton, A.M.; Krementz, D.G.

2006-01-01

Current monitoring efforts for greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) populations indicate that populations are declining across their range. Monitoring the population status of greater prairie-chickens is based on traditional lek surveys (TLS) that provide an index without considering detectability. Estimators, such as immigration-emigration joint maximum-likelihood estimator from a hypergeometric distribution (IEJHE), can account for detectability and provide reliable population estimates based on resightings. We evaluated the use of mark-resight methods using radiotelemetry to estimate population size and density of greater prairie-chickens on 2 sites at a tallgrass prairie in the Flint Hills of Kansas, USA. We used average distances traveled from lek of capture to estimate density. Population estimates and confidence intervals at the 2 sites were 54 (CI 50-59) on 52.9 km 2 and 87 (CI 82-94) on 73.6 km2. The TLS performed at the same sites resulted in population ranges of 7-34 and 36-63 and always produced a lower population index than the mark-resight population estimate with a larger range. Mark-resight simulations with varying male:female ratios of marks indicated that this ratio was important in designing a population study on prairie-chickens. Confidence intervals for estimates when no marks were placed on females at the 2 sites (CI 46-50, 76-84) did not overlap confidence intervals when 40% of marks were placed on females (CI 54-64, 91-109). Population estimates derived using this mark-resight technique were apparently more accurate than traditional methods and would be more effective in detecting changes in prairie-chicken populations. Our technique could improve prairie-chicken management by providing wildlife biologists and land managers with a tool to estimate the population size and trends of lekking bird species, such as greater prairie-chickens.

Placenta previa and risk of major congenital malformations among singleton births in Finland.

PubMed

Kancherla, Vijaya; Räisänen, Sari; Gissler, Mika; Kramer, Michael R; Heinonen, Seppo

2015-06-01

Placenta previa has been associated with adverse birth outcomes, but its association with congenital malformations is inconclusive. We examined the association between placenta previa and major congenital malformations among singleton births in Finland. We performed a retrospective population register-based study on all singletons born at or after 22+0 weeks of gestation in Finland during 2000 to 2010. We linked three national health registers: the Finnish Medical Birth Register, the Hospital Discharge Register, and the Register of Congenital Malformations, and examined several demographic and clinical characteristics among women with and without placenta previa, in association with major congenital malformations. We estimated adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals using multivariable logistic regression models. The prevalence of placenta previa was estimated as 2.65 per 1000 singleton births in Finland (95% confidence interval, 2.53-2.79). Overall, 6.2% of women with placenta previa delivered a singleton infant with a major congenital malformation, compared with 3.8% of unaffected women (p ≤ 0.001). Placenta previa was positively associated with almost 1.6-fold increased risk of major congenital malformations in the offspring, after controlling for maternal age, parity, fetal sex, smoking, socio-economic status, chorionic villus biopsy, In vitro fertilization, pre-existing diabetes, depression, preeclampsia, and prior caesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.90). Using a large population-based study, we found that placenta previa was weakly, but significantly associated with an increased risk of major congenital malformations in singleton births. Future studies should examine the association between placenta previa and individual types of congenital malformations, specifically in high-risk pregnancies. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Timing of Occurrence Is the Most Important Characteristic of Spot Sign.

PubMed

Wang, Binli; Yan, Shenqiang; Xu, Mengjun; Zhang, Sheng; Liu, Keqin; Hu, Haitao; Selim, Magdy; Lou, Min

2016-05-01

Most previous studies have used single-phase computed tomographic angiography to detect the spot sign, a marker for hematoma expansion (HE) in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. We investigated whether defining the spot sign based on timing on perfusion computed tomography (CTP) would improve its specificity for predicting HE. We prospectively enrolled supratentorial spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage patients who underwent CTP within 6 hours of onset. Logistic regression was performed to assess the risk factors for HE and poor outcome. Predictive performance of individual CTP spot sign characteristics were examined with receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sixty-two men and 21 women with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage were included in this analysis. Spot sign was detected in 46% (38/83) of patients. Receiver operating characteristic analysis indicated that the timing of spot sign occurrence on CTP had the greatest area under receiver operating characteristic curve for HE (0.794; 95% confidence interval, 0.630-0.958; P=0.007); the cutoff time was 23.13 seconds. On multivariable analysis, the presence of early-occurring spot sign (ie, spot sign before 23.13 seconds) was an independent predictor not only of HE (odds ratio=28.835; 95% confidence interval, 6.960-119.458; P<0.001), but also of mortality at 3 months (odds ratio =22.377; 95% confidence interval, 1.773-282.334; P=0.016). Moreover, the predictive performance showed that the redefined early-occurring spot sign maintained a higher specificity for HE compared with spot sign (91% versus 74%). Redefining the spot sign based on timing of contrast leakage on CTP to determine early-occurring spot sign improves the specificity for predicting HE and 3-month mortality. The use of early-occurring spot sign could improve the selection of ICH patients for potential hemostatic therapy. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effect of depressive symptoms on asthma intervention in urban teens.

PubMed

Guglani, Lokesh; Havstad, Suzanne L; Johnson, Christine Cole; Ownby, Dennis R; Joseph, Christine L M

2012-10-01

The literature suggests that depression is an important comorbidity in asthma that can significantly influence disease management and quality of life (QOL). To study the effect of coexisting depressive symptoms on the effectiveness of self-management interventions in urban teens with asthma. We analyzed data from a randomized controlled trial of Puff City, a web-based, tailored asthma management intervention for urban teens, to determine whether depression modulated intervention effectiveness for asthma control and QOL outcomes. Teens and caregivers were classified as depressed based on responses collected from baseline questionnaires. Using logistic regression analysis, we found that a lower percentage of treatment students had indicators of uncontrolled asthma compared with controls (adjusted odds ratios <1). However, for teens depressed at baseline, QOL scores at follow-up were significantly higher in the treatment group compared with the control group for the emotions domain (adjusted relative risk, 2.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-3.63; P = .01; interpreted as emotional QOL for treatment students increased by a factor of 2.08 above controls). Estimates for overall QOL and symptoms QOL were borderline significant (adjusted relative risk, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.93-2.63; P = .09; and adjusted relative risk, 1.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-3.15; P = .08; respectively). Among teens not depressed at baseline, no significant differences were observed between treatment and control groups in QOL domains at follow-up. Our results suggest that depression modified the relationship between the effectiveness of an asthma intervention and emotional QOL in urban teens. Further assessment of self-management behavioral interventions for asthma should explore the mechanism by which depression may alter the intervention effect. Copyright © 2012 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular disease and risk of acute pancreatitis in a population-based study.

PubMed

Bexelius, Tomas Sjöberg; Ljung, Rickard; Mattsson, Fredrik; Lagergren, Jesper

2013-08-01

The low-grade inflammation that characterizes cardiovascular disorders may facilitate the development of pancreatitis; therefore, we investigated the connection between cardiovascular disorders and acute pancreatitis. A nested population-based case-control study was conducted in Sweden in 2006-2008. Cases had a first episode of acute pancreatitis diagnosed in the nationwide Patient Register. Controls were matched on age, sex, and calendar year and randomly selected from all Swedish residents (40-84 years old). Exposure to cardiovascular diseases (hypertension, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, and stroke) was identified in the Patient Register. Relative risk of acute pancreatitis was estimated by odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals using logistic regression adjusting for confounders (matching variables, alcohol disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, type 2 diabetes, number of distinct medications, and other cardiovascular diseases). The study included 6161 cases and 61,637 control subjects. Cardiovascular disorders were positively associated with acute pancreatitis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-1.45). This population-based study indicates an association between cardiovascular disease and acute pancreatitis. Specifically, ischemic heart disease and hypertension seem to increase the risk of acute pancreatitis. Further research is needed to determine causality.

Efficacy of a Clinic-Based Safer Sex Program for Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Uninfected and Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Young Black Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Crosby, Richard A; Mena, Leandro; Salazar, Laura F; Hardin, James W; Brown, Tim; Vickers Smith, Rachel

2018-03-01

To test the efficacy of a single-session, clinic-based intervention designed to promote condom use among young black men who have sex with men (YBMSM). Six hundred YBMSM were enrolled in a randomized controlled trial, using a 12-month observation period. An intent-to-treat analysis was performed, with multiple imputation for missing data. Compared with the reference group, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men in the intervention group had 64% greater odds of reporting consistent condom use for anal receptive sex over 12 months (estimated odds ratio, 1.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.17, P = 0.001). Also, compared with the reference group, HIV-uninfected men in the intervention group had more than twice the odds of reporting consistent condom use for anal receptive sex over 12 months (estimated odds ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.74-2.63, P < 0.001). Significant intervention effects relative to incident sexually transmitted diseases were not observed. A single-session, clinic-based, intervention may help protect HIV-uninfected YBMSM against HIV acquisition and HIV-infected YBMSM from transmitting the virus to insertive partners.

Confidence Intervals and "F" Tests for Intraclass Correlation Coefficients Based on Three-Way Mixed Effects Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, Hong; Muellerleile, Paige; Ingram, Debra; Wong, Seok P.

2011-01-01

Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) are commonly used in behavioral measurement and psychometrics when a researcher is interested in the relationship among variables of a common class. The formulas for deriving ICCs, or generalizability coefficients, vary depending on which models are specified. This article gives the equations for…

Peaks Over Threshold (POT): A methodology for automatic threshold estimation using goodness of fit p-value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solari, Sebastián.; Egüen, Marta; Polo, María. José; Losada, Miguel A.

2017-04-01

Threshold estimation in the Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method and the impact of the estimation method on the calculation of high return period quantiles and their uncertainty (or confidence intervals) are issues that are still unresolved. In the past, methods based on goodness of fit tests and EDF-statistics have yielded satisfactory results, but their use has not yet been systematized. This paper proposes a methodology for automatic threshold estimation, based on the Anderson-Darling EDF-statistic and goodness of fit test. When combined with bootstrapping techniques, this methodology can be used to quantify both the uncertainty of threshold estimation and its impact on the uncertainty of high return period quantiles. This methodology was applied to several simulated series and to four precipitation/river flow data series. The results obtained confirmed its robustness. For the measured series, the estimated thresholds corresponded to those obtained by nonautomatic methods. Moreover, even though the uncertainty of the threshold estimation was high, this did not have a significant effect on the width of the confidence intervals of high return period quantiles.

Use of aromatherapy products and increased risk of hand dermatitis in massage therapists.

PubMed

Crawford, Glen H; Katz, Kenneth A; Ellis, Elliot; James, William D

2004-08-01

To determine the 12-month prevalence of hand dermatitis among massage therapists, to investigate a potential association between hand dermatitis and the use of aromatherapy products, and to study potential associations with other known risk factors for hand dermatitis. Mailed survey. Philadelphia, Pa. Members of a national massage therapy organization who live in the greater Philadelphia region. Self-reported and symptom-based prevalences of hand dermatitis. The number of respondents was 350 (57%). The 12-month prevalence of hand dermatitis in subjects was 15% by self-reported criteria and 23% by a symptom-based method. In multivariate analysis, statistically significant independent risk factors for self-reported hand dermatitis included use of aromatherapy products in massage oils, lotions, or creams (odds ratio, 3.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-7.02; P =.002) and history of atopic dermatitis (odds ratio, 8.06; 95% confidence interval, 3.39-19.17; P<.001). The prevalence of hand dermatitis in massage therapists is high. Significant independent risk factors include use of aromatherapy products in massage oils, creams, or lotions and history of atopic dermatitis.

Confidence limit calculation for antidotal potency ratio derived from lethal dose 50

PubMed Central

Manage, Ananda; Petrikovics, Ilona

2013-01-01

AIM: To describe confidence interval calculation for antidotal potency ratios using bootstrap method. METHODS: We can easily adapt the nonparametric bootstrap method which was invented by Efron to construct confidence intervals in such situations like this. The bootstrap method is a resampling method in which the bootstrap samples are obtained by resampling from the original sample. RESULTS: The described confidence interval calculation using bootstrap method does not require the sampling distribution antidotal potency ratio. This can serve as a substantial help for toxicologists, who are directed to employ the Dixon up-and-down method with the application of lower number of animals to determine lethal dose 50 values for characterizing the investigated toxic molecules and eventually for characterizing the antidotal protections by the test antidotal systems. CONCLUSION: The described method can serve as a useful tool in various other applications. Simplicity of the method makes it easier to do the calculation using most of the programming software packages. PMID:25237618

Dental procedures, antibiotic prophylaxis, and endocarditis among people with prosthetic heart valves: nationwide population based cohort and a case crossover study

PubMed Central

Blotière, Pierre-Olivier; Hoen, Bruno; Lesclous, Philippe; Millot, Sarah; Rudant, Jérémie; Weill, Alain; Coste, Joel; Alla, François; Duval, Xavier

2017-01-01

Objective To assess the relation between invasive dental procedures and infective endocarditis associated with oral streptococci among people with prosthetic heart valves. Design Nationwide population based cohort and a case crossover study. Setting French national health insurance administrative data linked with the national hospital discharge database. Participants All adults aged more than 18 years, living in France, with medical procedure codes for positioning or replacement of prosthetic heart valves between July 2008 and July 2014. Main outcome measures Oral streptococcal infective endocarditis was identified using primary discharge diagnosis codes. In the cohort study, Poisson regression models were performed to estimate the rate of oral streptococcal infective endocarditis during the three month period after invasive dental procedures compared with non-exposure periods. In the case crossover study, conditional logistic regression models calculated the odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals comparing exposure to invasive dental procedures during the three month period preceding oral streptococcal infective endocarditis (case period) with three earlier control periods. Results The cohort included 138 876 adults with prosthetic heart valves (285 034 person years); 69 303 (49.9%) underwent at least one dental procedure. Among the 396 615 dental procedures performed, 103 463 (26.0%) were invasive and therefore presented an indication for antibiotic prophylaxis, which was performed in 52 280 (50.1%). With a median follow-up of 1.7 years, 267 people developed infective endocarditis associated with oral streptococci (incidence rate 93.7 per 100 000 person years, 95% confidence interval 82.4 to 104.9). Compared with non-exposure periods, no statistically significant increased rate of oral streptococcal infective endocarditis was observed during the three months after an invasive dental procedure (relative rate 1.25, 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.82; P=0.26) and after an invasive dental procedure without antibiotic prophylaxis (1.57, 0.90 to 2.53; P=0.08). In the case crossover analysis, exposure to invasive dental procedures was more frequent during case periods than during matched control periods (5.1% v 3.2%; odds ratio 1.66, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 2.63; P=0.03). Conclusion Invasive dental procedures may contribute to the development of infective endocarditis in adults with prosthetic heart valves. PMID:28882817

Pulmonary disease in cystic fibrosis: assessment with chest CT at chest radiography dose levels.

PubMed

Ernst, Caroline W; Basten, Ines A; Ilsen, Bart; Buls, Nico; Van Gompel, Gert; De Wachter, Elke; Nieboer, Koenraad H; Verhelle, Filip; Malfroot, Anne; Coomans, Danny; De Maeseneer, Michel; de Mey, Johan

2014-11-01

To investigate a computed tomographic (CT) protocol with iterative reconstruction at conventional radiography dose levels for the assessment of structural lung abnormalities in patients with cystic fibrosis ( CF cystic fibrosis ). In this institutional review board-approved study, 38 patients with CF cystic fibrosis (age range, 6-58 years; 21 patients <18 years and 17 patients >18 years) underwent investigative CT (at minimal exposure settings combined with iterative reconstruction) as a replacement of yearly follow-up posteroanterior chest radiography. Verbal informed consent was obtained from all patients or their parents. CT images were randomized and rated independently by two radiologists with use of the Bhalla scoring system. In addition, mosaic perfusion was evaluated. As reference, the previous available conventional chest CT scan was used. Differences in Bhalla scores were assessed with the χ(2) test and intraclass correlation coefficients ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient s). Radiation doses for CT and radiography were assessed for adults (>18 years) and children (<18 years) separately by using technical dose descriptors and estimated effective dose. Differences in dose were assessed with the Mann-Whitney U test. The median effective dose for the investigative protocol was 0.04 mSv (95% confidence interval [ CI confidence interval ]: 0.034 mSv, 0.10 mSv) for children and 0.05 mSv (95% CI confidence interval : 0.04 mSv, 0.08 mSv) for adults. These doses were much lower than those with conventional CT (median: 0.52 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.31 mSv, 3.90 mSv] for children and 1.12 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.57 mSv, 3.15 mSv] for adults) and of the same order of magnitude as those for conventional radiography (median: 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.006 mSv, 0.022 mSv] for children and 0.012 mSv [95% CI confidence interval : 0.005 mSv, 0.031 mSv] for adults). All images were rated at least as diagnostically acceptable. Very good agreement was found in overall Bhalla score ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.96) with regard to the severity of bronchiectasis ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.87) and sacculations and abscesses ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.84). Interobserver agreement was excellent ( ICC intraclass correlation coefficient , 0.86-1). For patients with CF cystic fibrosis , a dedicated chest CT protocol can replace the two yearly follow-up chest radiographic examinations without major dose penalty and with similar diagnostic quality compared with conventional CT.

Nondepressive Psychosocial Factors and CKD Outcomes in Black Americans.

PubMed

Lunyera, Joseph; Davenport, Clemontina A; Bhavsar, Nrupen A; Sims, Mario; Scialla, Julia; Pendergast, Jane; Hall, Rasheeda; Tyson, Crystal C; Russell, Jennifer St Clair; Wang, Wei; Correa, Adolfo; Boulware, L Ebony; Diamantidis, Clarissa J

2018-02-07

Established risk factors for CKD do not fully account for risk of CKD in black Americans. We studied the association of nondepressive psychosocial factors with risk of CKD in the Jackson Heart Study. We used principal component analysis to identify underlying constructs from 12 psychosocial baseline variables (perceived daily, lifetime, and burden of lifetime discrimination; stress; anger in; anger out; hostility; pessimism; John Henryism; spirituality; perceived social status; and social support). Using multivariable models adjusted for demographics and comorbidity, we examined the association of psychosocial variables with baseline CKD prevalence, eGFR decline, and incident CKD during follow-up. Of 3390 (64%) Jackson Heart Study participants with the required data, 656 (19%) had prevalent CKD. Those with CKD (versus no CKD) had lower perceived daily (mean [SD] score =7.6 [8.5] versus 9.7 [9.0]) and lifetime discrimination (2.5 [2.0] versus 3.1 [2.2]), lower perceived stress (4.2 [4.0] versus 5.2 [4.4]), higher hostility (12.1 [5.2] versus 11.5 [4.8]), higher John Henryism (30.0 [4.8] versus 29.7 [4.4]), and higher pessimism (2.3 [2.2] versus 2.0 [2.1]; all P <0.05). Principal component analysis identified three factors from the 12 psychosocial variables: factor 1, life stressors (perceived discrimination, stress); factor 2, moods (anger, hostility); and, factor 3, coping strategies (John Henryism, spirituality, social status, social support). After adjustments, factor 1 (life stressors) was negatively associated with prevalent CKD at baseline among women only: odds ratio, 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.89). After a median follow-up of 8 years, identified psychosocial factors were not significantly associated with eGFR decline (life stressors: β =0.08; 95% confidence interval, -0.02 to 0.17; moods: β =0.03; 95% confidence interval, -0.06 to 0.13; coping: β =-0.02; 95% confidence interval, -0.12 to 0.08) or incident CKD (life stressors: odds ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 1.29; moods: odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.84 to 1.24; coping: odds ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.11). Greater life stressors were associated with lower prevalence of CKD at baseline in the Jackson Heart Study. However, psychosocial factors were not associated with risk of CKD over a median follow-up of 8 years. This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2018_01_03_CJASNPodcast_18_2_L.mp3. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

The impact of previous knee injury on force plate and field-based measures of balance.

PubMed

Baltich, Jennifer; Whittaker, Jackie; Von Tscharner, Vinzenz; Nettel-Aguirre, Alberto; Nigg, Benno M; Emery, Carolyn

2015-10-01

Individuals with post-traumatic osteoarthritis demonstrate increased sway during quiet stance. The prospective association between balance and disease onset is unknown. Improved understanding of balance in the period between joint injury and disease onset could inform secondary prevention strategies to prevent or delay the disease. This study examines the association between youth sport-related knee injury and balance, 3-10years post-injury. Participants included 50 individuals (ages 15-26years) with a sport-related intra-articular knee injury sustained 3-10years previously and 50 uninjured age-, sex- and sport-matched controls. Force-plate measures during single-limb stance (center-of-pressure 95% ellipse-area, path length, excursion, entropic half-life) and field-based balance scores (triple single-leg hop, star-excursion, unipedal dynamic balance) were collected. Descriptive statistics (mean within-pair difference; 95% confidence intervals) were used to compare groups. Linear regression (adjusted for injury history) was used to assess the relationship between ellipse-area and field-based scores. Injured participants on average demonstrated greater medio-lateral excursion [mean within-pair difference (95% confidence interval); 2.8mm (1.0, 4.5)], more regular medio-lateral position [10ms (2, 18)], and shorter triple single-leg hop distances [-30.9% (-8.1, -53.7)] than controls, while no between group differences existed for the remaining outcomes. After taking into consideration injury history, triple single leg hop scores demonstrated a linear association with ellipse area (β=0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.01, 1.01). On average the injured participants adjusted their position less frequently and demonstrated a larger magnitude of movement during single-limb stance compared to controls. These findings support the evaluation of balance outcomes in the period between knee injury and post-traumatic osteoarthritis onset. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Type 1 diabetes and multiple sclerosis: A Danish population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Nielsen, Nete M; Westergaard, Tine; Frisch, Morten; Rostgaard, Klaus; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Melbye, Mads; Hjalgrim, Henrik

2006-07-01

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) and multiple sclerosis (MS) contribute considerably to the burden of autoimmune diseases in young adults. Although HLA patterns of T1D and MS are considered mutually exclusive, individual and familial co-occurrence of the 2 diseases has been reported. To assess the co-occurrence of T1D and MS by estimating the risk for MS in patients with T1D and the risk for T1D in first-degree relatives of patients with MS. Two population-based disease registers, the Danish Hospital Discharge Register and the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Register were used to identify patients with T1D, defined as patients in whom diabetes was diagnosed before age 20 years (N = 6078), and patients with MS (N = 11 862). First-degree relatives (N = 14,771) of patients with MS were identified from family information in the Danish Civil Registration System. Patients with T1D and first-degree relatives of patients with MS were followed up for occurrence of MS and T1D, respectively, and the relative risks were expressed as standardized incidence ratios, that is, ratios of observed to expected numbers of outcomes based on national age, sex, and period-specific MS and T1D incidence rates. Patients with T1D were at more than 3-fold increased risk for development of MS (relative risk, 3.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.80-5.88; n = 11). First-degree relatives of patients with MS were at 63% increased risk (relative risk, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-2.12; n = 56) for development of T1D. However, adjusting for familial relationship to patients with T1D reduced the excess risk to 44% (relative risk, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.88; n = 56). The present nationwide cohort study demonstrates an intraindividual and, to a lesser degree, an intrafamilial co-occurrence of MS and T1D.

Do one-time intracompartmental pressure measurements have a high false-positive rate in diagnosing compartment syndrome?

PubMed

Whitney, Augusta; O'Toole, Robert V; Hui, Emily; Sciadini, Marcus F; Pollak, Andrew N; Manson, Theodore T; Eglseder, W Andrew; Andersen, Romney C; Lebrun, Christopher; Doro, Christopher; Nascone, Jason W

2014-02-01

Intracompartmental pressure measurements are frequently used in the diagnosis of compartment syndrome, particularly in patients with equivocal or limited physical examination findings. Little clinical work has been done to validate the clinical use of intracompartmental pressures or identify associated false-positive rates. We hypothesized that diagnosis of compartment syndrome based on one-time pressure measurements alone is associated with a high false-positive rate. Forty-eight consecutive patients with tibial shaft fractures who were not suspected of having compartment syndrome based on physical examinations were prospectively enrolled. Pressure measurements were obtained in all four compartments at a single point in time immediately after induction of anesthesia using a pressure-monitoring device. Preoperative and intraoperative blood pressure measurements were recorded. The same standardized examination was performed by the attending surgeon preoperatively, postoperatively, and during clinical follow-up for 6 months to assess clinical evidence of acute or late compartment syndrome. No clinical evidence of compartment syndrome was observed postoperatively or during follow-up until 6 months after injury. Using the accepted criteria of delta P of 30 mm Hg from preoperative diastolic blood pressure, 35% of cases (n = 16; 95% confidence interval, 21.5-48.5%) met criteria for compartment syndrome. Raising the threshold to delta P of 20 mm Hg reduced the false-positive rate to 24% (n = 11; 95% confidence interval, 11.1-34.9%). Twenty-two percent (n = 10; 95% confidence interval, 9.5-32.5%) exceeded absolute pressure of 45 mm Hg. A 35% false-positive rate was found for the diagnosis of compartment syndrome in patients with tibial shaft fractures who were not thought to have compartment syndrome by using currently accepted criteria for diagnosis based solely on one-time compartment pressure measurements. Our data suggest that reliance on one-time intracompartmental pressure measurements can overestimate the rate of compartment syndrome and raise concern regarding unnecessary fasciotomies. Diagnostic study, level II.

Unemployment and mortality among Finnish men, 1981-5.

PubMed Central

Martikainen, P T

1990-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To ascertain whether, after controlling for several relevant background variables simultaneously, unemployment is related to mortality and to assess whether this relation is causal or whether unhealthy people are more likely to become unemployed. DESIGN--Prospective study of mortality in Finland during 1981-5 based on 1980 census data on 30-54 year old wage earner men and with particular attention to unemployment in the year before the census. SETTING--Research project at the University of Helsinki. SUBJECTS--All wage earner men in Finland aged 30-54 at the 1980 census. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Causes of death during 1981-5 and duration of unemployment in the year before the census. Background variables controlled for were age, socioeconomic state, marital state, and health. The data were analysed by log linear regression models. RESULTS--During the study period 1981-5, which covered almost 2.7 million person years, there were 9810 deaths. After controlling for all background variables relative total mortality among unemployed versus employed men was 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.82 to 2.05). The excess mortality was highest in accidental and violent causes of death (relative mortality 2.51; 95% confidence interval 2.28 to 2.76). For circulatory diseases the relative death rate was 1.54 (95% confidence interval 1.40 to 1.70), but among neoplasms only lung cancer was associated with excess mortality. Selection for unemployment based on age, socioeconomic state, and marital state was evident but no such selection was detected based on health. Effects of unemployment on mortality were more pronounced with increasing duration of unemployment. CONCLUSIONS--The relative excess mortality of unemployed men in Finland cannot fully be explained by demographic, social, and health variables preceding unemployment. Unemployment therefore seems to have an independent causal effect on male mortality. Further studies are needed to elucidate the mechanisms between unemployment and mortality. PMID:2282395

Estimating high-risk cannabis and opiate use in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir.

PubMed

Kraus, Ludwig; Hay, Gordon; Richardson, Clive; Yargic, Ilhan; Ilhan, Mustafa Necmi; Ay, Pinar; Karasahin, Füsun; Pinarci, Mustafa; Tuncoglu, Tolga; Piontek, Daniela; Schulte, Bernd

2017-09-01

Information on high-risk drug use in Turkey, particularly at the regional level, is lacking. The present analysis aims at estimating high-risk cannabis use (HRCU) and high-risk opiate use (HROU) in the cities of Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir. Capture-recapture and multiplier methods were applied based on treatment and police data stratified by age and gender in the years 2009 and 2010. Case definitions refer to ICD-10 cannabis (F.12) and opiate (F.11) disorder diagnoses from outpatient and inpatient treatment records and illegal possession of these drugs as recorded by the police. High-risk cannabis use was estimated at 28 500 (8.5 per 1000; 95% confidence interval 7.3-10.3) and 33 400 (11.9 per 1000; 95% confidence interval 10.7-13.5) in Ankara and Izmir, respectively. Using multipliers based on capture-recapture estimates for Izmir, HRCU in Istanbul was estimated up to 166 000 (18.0 per 1000; range: 2.8-18.0). Capture-recapture estimates of HROU resulted in 4800 (1.4 per 1000; 95% confidence interval 0.9-1.9) in Ankara and multipliers based on these gave estimates up to 20 000 (2.2 per 1000; range: 0.9-2.2) in Istanbul. HROU in Izmir was not estimated due to the low absolute numbers of opiate users. While HRCU prevalence in both Ankara and Izmir was considerably lower in comparison to an estimate for Berlin, the rate for Istanbul was only slightly lower. Compared with the majority of European cities, HROU in these three Turkish cities may be considered rather low. [Kraus L, Hay G, Richardson C, Yargic I, Ilhan N M, Ay P, Karasahin F, Pinarci M, Tuncoglu T, Piontek D, Schulte B Estimating high-risk cannabis and opiate use in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;00:000-000]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

The bacterial meningitis score to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis in children from Sao Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Mekitarian Filho, Eduardo; Horita, Sérgio Massaru; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Alves, Anna Cláudia Dominguez; Nigrovic, Lise E

2013-09-01

In a retrospective cohort of 494 children with meningitis in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the Bacterial Meningitis Score identified all the children with bacterial meningitis (sensitivity 100%, 95% confidence interval: 92-100% and negative predictive value 100%, 95% confidence interval: 98-100%). Addition of cerebrospinal fluid lactate to the score did not improve clinical prediction rule performance.

Spacecraft utility and the development of confidence intervals for criticality of anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. E.

1980-01-01

The concept of spacecraft utility, a measure of its performance in orbit, is discussed and its formulation is described. Performance is defined in terms of the malfunctions that occur and the criticality to the mission of these malfunctions. Different approaches to establishing average or expected values of criticality are discussed and confidence intervals are developed for parameters used in the computation of utility.

Prevalence Estimates of Complicated Syphilis.

PubMed

Dombrowski, Julia C; Pedersen, Rolf; Marra, Christina M; Kerani, Roxanne P; Golden, Matthew R

2015-12-01

We reviewed 68 cases of possible neurosyphilis among 573 syphilis cases in King County, WA, from 3rd January 2012 to 30th September 2013; 7.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.8%-10.5%) had vision or hearing changes, and 3.5% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-5.4%) had both symptoms and objective confirmation of complicated syphilis with either abnormal cerebrospinal fluid or an abnormal ophthalmologic examination.

Speech and language adverse effects after thalamotomy and deep brain stimulation in patients with movement disorders: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Alomar, Soha; King, Nicolas K K; Tam, Joseph; Bari, Ausaf A; Hamani, Clement; Lozano, Andres M

2017-01-01

The thalamus has been a surgical target for the treatment of various movement disorders. Commonly used therapeutic modalities include ablative and nonablative procedures. A major clinical side effect of thalamic surgery is the appearance of speech problems. This review summarizes the data on the development of speech problems after thalamic surgery. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using nine databases, including Medline, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. We also checked for articles by searching citing and cited articles. We retrieved studies between 1960 and September 2014. Of a total of 2,320 patients, 19.8% (confidence interval: 14.8-25.9) had speech difficulty after thalamotomy. Speech difficulty occurred in 15% (confidence interval: 9.8-22.2) of those treated with a unilaterally and 40.6% (confidence interval: 29.5-52.8) of those treated bilaterally. Speech impairment was noticed 2- to 3-fold more commonly after left-sided procedures (40.7% vs. 15.2%). Of the 572 patients that underwent DBS, 19.4% (confidence interval: 13.1-27.8) experienced speech difficulty. Subgroup analysis revealed that this complication occurs in 10.2% (confidence interval: 7.4-13.9) of patients treated unilaterally and 34.6% (confidence interval: 21.6-50.4) treated bilaterally. After thalamotomy, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients compared to patients with essential tremor: 19.8% versus 4.5% in the unilateral group and 42.5% versus 13.9% in the bilateral group. After DBS, this rate was higher in essential tremor patients. Both lesioning and stimulation thalamic surgery produce adverse effects on speech. Left-sided and bilateral procedures are approximately 3-fold more likely to cause speech difficulty. This effect was higher after thalamotomy compared to DBS. In the thalamotomy group, the risk was higher in Parkinson's patients, whereas in the DBS group it was higher in patients with essential tremor. Understanding the pathophysiology of speech disturbance after thalamic procedures is a priority. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Outcomes after helicopter versus ground emergency medical services for major trauma--propensity score and instrumental variable analyses: a retrospective nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Tsuchiya, Asuka; Tsutsumi, Yusuke; Yasunaga, Hideo

2016-11-29

Because of a lack of randomized controlled trials and the methodological weakness of currently available observational studies, the benefits of helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) over ground emergency medical services (GEMS) for major trauma patients remain uncertain. The aim of this retrospective nationwide cohort study was to compare the mortality of adults with serious traumatic injuries who were transported by HEMS and GEMS, and to analyze the effects of HEMS in various subpopulations. Using the Japan Trauma Data Bank, we evaluated all adult patients who had an injury severity score ≥ 16 transported by HEMS or GEMS during the daytime between 2004 and 2014. We compared in-hospital mortality between patients transported by HEMS and GEMS using propensity score matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting and instrumental variable analyses to adjust for measured and unmeasured confounding factors. Eligible patients (n = 21,286) from 192 hospitals included 4128 transported by HEMS and 17,158 transported by GEMS. In the propensity score-matched model, there was a significant difference in the in-hospital mortality between HEMS and GEMS groups (22.2 vs. 24.5%, risk difference -2.3% [95% confidence interval, -4.2 to -0.5]; number needed to treat, 43 [95% confidence interval, 24 to 220]). The inverse probability of treatment weighting (20.8% vs. 23.9%; risk difference, -3.9% [95% confidence interval, -5.7 to -2.1]; number needed to treat, 26 [95% confidence interval, 17 to 48]) and instrumental variable analyses showed similar results (risk difference, -6.5% [95% confidence interval, -9.2 to -3.8]; number needed to treat, 15 [95% confidence interval, 11 to 27]). HEMS transport was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality after falls, compression injuries, severe chest injuries, extremity (including pelvic) injuries, and traumatic arrest on arrival to the emergency department. HEMS was associated with a significantly lower mortality than GEMS in adult patients with major traumatic injuries after adjusting for measured and unmeasured confounders.

Determinants of waterpipe use amongst adolescents in Northern Sweden: a survey of use pattern, risk perception, and environmental factors.

PubMed

Ramji, Rathi; Arnetz, Judy; Nilsson, Maria; Jamil, Hikmet; Norström, Fredrik; Maziak, Wasim; Wiklund, Ywonne; Arnetz, Bengt

2015-09-15

Determinants of waterpipe use in adolescents are believed to differ from those for other tobacco products, but there is a lack of studies of possible social, cultural, or psychological aspects of waterpipe use in this population. This study applied a socioecological model to explore waterpipe use, and its relationship to other tobacco use in Swedish adolescents. A total of 106 adolescents who attended an urban high-school in northern Sweden responded to an anonymous questionnaire. Prevalence rates for waterpipe use were examined in relation to socio-demographics, peer pressure, sensation seeking behavior, harm perception, environmental factors, and depression. Thirty-three percent reported ever having smoked waterpipe (ever use), with 30% having done so during the last 30 days (current use). Among waterpipe ever users, 60% had ever smoked cigarettes in comparison to 32% of non-waterpipe smokers (95% confidence interval 1.4-7.9). The odds of having ever smoked waterpipe were three times higher among male high school seniors as well as students with lower grades. Waterpipe ever users had three times higher odds of having higher levels of sensation-seeking (95% confidence interval 1.2-9.5) and scored high on the depression scales (95% confidence interval 1.6-6.8) than non-users. The odds of waterpipe ever use were four times higher for those who perceived waterpipe products to have pleasant smell compared to cigarettes (95% confidence interval 1.7-9.8). Waterpipe ever users were twice as likely to have seen waterpipe use on television compared to non-users (95% confidence interval 1.1-5.7). The odds of having friends who smoked regularly was eight times higher for waterpipe ever users than non-users (95% confidence interval 2.1-31.2). The current study reports a high use of waterpipe in a select group of students in northern Sweden. The study adds the importance of looking at socioecological determinants of use, including peer pressure and exposure to media marketing, as well as mental health among users.

Provider use of a participatory decision-making style with youth and caregivers and satisfaction with pediatric asthma visits.

PubMed

Sleath, Betsy; Carpenter, Delesha M; Coyne, Imelda; Davis, Scott A; Hayes Watson, Claire; Loughlin, Ceila E; Garcia, Nacire; Reuland, Daniel S; Tudor, Gail E

2018-01-01

We conducted a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of an asthma question prompt list with video intervention to engage the youth during clinic visits. We examined whether the intervention was associated with 1) providers including youth and caregiver inputs more into asthma treatment regimens, 2) youth and caregivers rating providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style, and 3) youth and caregivers being more satisfied with visits. English- or Spanish-speaking youth aged 11-17 years with persistent asthma and their caregivers were recruited from four pediatric clinics and randomized to the intervention or usual care groups. The youth in the intervention group watched the video with their caregivers on an iPad and completed a one-page asthma question prompt list before their clinic visits. All visits were audiotaped. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data. Forty providers and their patients (n=359) participated in this study. Providers included youth input into the asthma management treatment regimens during 2.5% of visits and caregiver input during 3.3% of visits. The youth in the intervention group were significantly more likely to rate their providers as using more of a participatory decision-making style (odds ratio=1.7, 95% confidence interval=1.1, 2.5). White caregivers were significantly more likely to rate the providers as more participatory (odds ratio=2.3, 95% confidence interval=1.2, 4.4). Youth (beta=4.9, 95% confidence interval=3.3, 6.5) and caregivers (beta=7.5, 95% confidence interval=3.1, 12.0) who rated their providers as being more participatory were significantly more satisfied with their visits. Youth (beta=-1.9, 95% confidence interval=-3.4, -0.4) and caregivers (beta=-8.8, 95% confidence interval=-16.2, -1.3) who spoke Spanish at home were less satisfied with visits. The intervention did not increase the inclusion of youth and caregiver inputs into asthma treatment regimens. However, it did increase the youth's perception of participatory decision-making style of the providers, and this in turn was associated with greater satisfaction.

Clinical impact and predictors of complete ST segment resolution after primary percutaneous coronary intervention: A subanalysis of the ATLANTIC Trial.

PubMed

Fabris, Enrico; van 't Hof, Arnoud; Hamm, Christian W; Lapostolle, Frédéric; Lassen, Jens F; Goodman, Shaun G; Ten Berg, Jurriën M; Bolognese, Leonardo; Cequier, Angel; Chettibi, Mohamed; Hammett, Christopher J; Huber, Kurt; Janzon, Magnus; Merkely, Béla; Storey, Robert F; Zeymer, Uwe; Cantor, Warren J; Tsatsaris, Anne; Kerneis, Mathieu; Diallo, Abdourahmane; Vicaut, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles

2017-08-01

In the ATLANTIC (Administration of Ticagrelor in the catheterization laboratory or in the Ambulance for New ST elevation myocardial Infarction to open the Coronary artery) trial the early use of aspirin, anticoagulation, and ticagrelor coupled with very short medical contact-to-balloon times represent good indicators of optimal treatment of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and an ideal setting to explore which factors may influence coronary reperfusion beyond a well-established pre-hospital system. This study sought to evaluate predictors of complete ST-segment resolution after percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients enrolled in the ATLANTIC trial. ST-segment analysis was performed on electrocardiograms recorded at the time of inclusion (pre-hospital electrocardiogram), and one hour after percutaneous coronary intervention (post-percutaneous coronary intervention electrocardiogram) by an independent core laboratory. Complete ST-segment resolution was defined as ≥70% ST-segment resolution. Complete ST-segment resolution occurred post-percutaneous coronary intervention in 54.9% ( n=800/1456) of patients and predicted lower 30-day composite major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (odds ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.65; p<0.01), definite stent thrombosis (odds ratio 0.18, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.88; p=0.03), and total mortality (odds ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.97; p=0.04). In multivariate analysis, independent negative predictors of complete ST-segment resolution were the time from symptoms to pre-hospital electrocardiogram (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.98; p<0.01) and diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.83; p<0.01); pre-hospital ticagrelor treatment showed a favorable trend for complete ST-segment resolution (odds ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.51; p=0.06). This study confirmed that post-percutaneous coronary intervention complete ST-segment resolution is a valid surrogate marker for cardiovascular clinical outcomes. In the current era of ST-elevation myocardial infarction reperfusion, patients' delay and diabetes mellitus are independent predictors of poor reperfusion and need specific attention in the future.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Garimella, Pranav S; Jaber, Bertrand L; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M; Sarnak, Mark J

2017-01-06

AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Garimella, Pranav S.; Jaber, Bertrand L.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R.; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on–pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Results Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Conclusions Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. PMID:27797887

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

PubMed Central

Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M.; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. Results A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P<0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P<0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P<0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P<0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. Conclusions This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. PMID:28289067

Association of CKD with Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

PubMed

Lüders, Florian; Kaier, Klaus; Kaleschke, Gerrit; Gebauer, Katrin; Meyborg, Matthias; Malyar, Nasser M; Freisinger, Eva; Baumgartner, Helmut; Reinecke, Holger; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-05-08

Despitethe multiple depicted associations of CKD with reduced cardiovascular and overall prognoses, the association of CKD with outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation has still not been well described. Data from all hospitalized patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation procedures between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in Germany were evaluated regarding influence of CKD, even in the earlier stages, on morbidity, in-hospital outcomes, and costs. A total of 28,716 patients were treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation. A total of 11,189 (39.0%) suffered from CKD. Patients with CKD were predominantly women; had higher rates of comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, heart failure at New York Heart Association 3/4, peripheral artery disease, and diabetes; and had a 1.3-fold higher estimated logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation value. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with CKD stage ≥3 (up to odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 2.17; P <0.05), bleeding was independently associated with CKD stage ≥4 (up to odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.47 to 2.24; P <0.001), and AKI was independently associated with CKD stages 3 (odds ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 2.06) and 4 (odds ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.92 to 2.83 both P <0.001). The stroke risk, in contrast, was lower for patients with CKD stages 4 (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.33) and 5 (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.39; both P <0.001). Lengths of hospital stay were, on average, 1.2-fold longer, whereas reimbursements were, on average, only 1.03-fold higher in patients who suffered from CKD. This analysis illustrates for the first time on a nationwide basis the association of CKD with adverse outcomes in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Thus, classification of CKD stages before transcatheter aortic valve implantation is important for appropriate risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Combined metformin-clomiphene in clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Abu Hashim, Hatem; Foda, Osama; Ghayaty, Essam

2015-09-01

Our objective was to compare the effectiveness of metformin plus clomiphene citrate vs. gonadotrophins, laparoscopic ovarian diathermy, aromatase inhibitors, N-acetyl-cysteine and other insulin sensitizers+clomiphene for improving fertility outcomes in women with clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome. PubMed, SCOPUS and CENTRAL databases were searched until April 2014 with the key words: PCOS, polycystic ovary syndrome, metformin, clomiphene citrate, ovulation induction and pregnancy. The search was limited to articles conducted with humans and published in English. The PRISMA statement was followed. Twelve randomized controlled trials (n = 1411 women) were included. Ovulation and clinical pregnancy rates per woman randomized. Compared with gonadotrophins, the metformin+clomiphene combination resulted in significantly fewer ovulations (odds ratio 0.25; 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.41; p < 0.00001, 3 trials, I(2) = 85%, n = 323) and pregnancies (odds ratio 0.45; 95% confidence interval 0.27-0.75; p = 0.002, 3 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 323). No significant differences were found when metformin+clomiphene was compared with laparoscopic ovarian diathermy (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.47; p = 0.62, 1 trial, n = 282; odds ratio 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.60-1.54; p = 0.88, 2 trials, I(2) = 0%, n = 332, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). Likewise, no differences were observed in comparison with aromatase inhibitors (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.34; p = 0.55, 3 trials, I(2) = 3%, n = 409; odds ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.36; p = 0.50, 2 trials, n = 309, for ovulation and pregnancy rates, respectively). There is evidence for the superiority of gonadotrophins, but the metformin+clomiphene combination is mainly relevant for clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome patients and, if not effective, a next step could be gonadotrophins. More attempts with metformin+clomiphene are only relevant if there is limited access to gonadotrophins. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Estimation of parameters of dose volume models and their confidence limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Luijk, P.; Delvigne, T. C.; Schilstra, C.; Schippers, J. M.

2003-07-01

Predictions of the normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) for the ranking of treatment plans are based on fits of dose-volume models to clinical and/or experimental data. In the literature several different fit methods are used. In this work frequently used methods and techniques to fit NTCP models to dose response data for establishing dose-volume effects, are discussed. The techniques are tested for their usability with dose-volume data and NTCP models. Different methods to estimate the confidence intervals of the model parameters are part of this study. From a critical-volume (CV) model with biologically realistic parameters a primary dataset was generated, serving as the reference for this study and describable by the NTCP model. The CV model was fitted to this dataset. From the resulting parameters and the CV model, 1000 secondary datasets were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. All secondary datasets were fitted to obtain 1000 parameter sets of the CV model. Thus the 'real' spread in fit results due to statistical spreading in the data is obtained and has been compared with estimates of the confidence intervals obtained by different methods applied to the primary dataset. The confidence limits of the parameters of one dataset were estimated using the methods, employing the covariance matrix, the jackknife method and directly from the likelihood landscape. These results were compared with the spread of the parameters, obtained from the secondary parameter sets. For the estimation of confidence intervals on NTCP predictions, three methods were tested. Firstly, propagation of errors using the covariance matrix was used. Secondly, the meaning of the width of a bundle of curves that resulted from parameters that were within the one standard deviation region in the likelihood space was investigated. Thirdly, many parameter sets and their likelihood were used to create a likelihood-weighted probability distribution of the NTCP. It is concluded that for the type of dose response data used here, only a full likelihood analysis will produce reliable results. The often-used approximations, such as the usage of the covariance matrix, produce inconsistent confidence limits on both the parameter sets and the resulting NTCP values.

Clinical effectiveness of a manual based coping strategy programme (START, STrAtegies for RelaTives) in promoting the mental health of carers of family members with dementia: pragmatic randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Livingston, Gill; Barber, Julie; Rapaport, Penny; Knapp, Martin; Griffin, Mark; King, Derek; Livingston, Debbie; Mummery, Cath; Walker, Zuzana; Hoe, Juanita; Sampson, Elizabeth L; Cooper, Claudia

2013-10-25

To assess whether a manual based coping strategy compared with treatment as usual reduces depression and anxiety symptoms in carers of family members with dementia. Randomised, parallel group, superiority trial. Three mental health community services and one neurological outpatient dementia service in London and Essex, UK. 260 carers of family members with dementia. A manual based coping intervention comprising eight sessions and delivered by supervised psychology graduates to carers of family members with dementia. The programme consisted of psychoeducation about dementia, carers' stress, and where to get emotional support; understanding behaviours of the family member being cared for, and behavioural management techniques; changing unhelpful thoughts; promoting acceptance; assertive communication; relaxation; planning for the future; increasing pleasant activities; and maintaining skills learnt. Carers practised these techniques at home, using the manual and relaxation CDs. Affective symptoms (hospital anxiety and depression total score) at four and eight months. Secondary outcomes were depression and anxiety caseness on the hospital anxiety and depression scale; quality of life of both the carer (health status questionnaire, mental health) and the recipient of care (quality of life-Alzheimer's disease); and potentially abusive behaviour by the carer towards the recipient of care (modified conflict tactics scale). 260 carers were recruited; 173 were randomised to the intervention and 87 to treatment as usual. Mean total scores on the hospital anxiety and depression scale were lower in the intervention group than in the treatment as usual group over the eight month evaluation period: adjusted difference in means -1.80 points (95% confidence interval -3.29 to -0.31; P=0.02) and absolute difference in means -2.0 points. Carers in the intervention group were less likely to have case level depression (odds ratio 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.07 to 0.76) and there was a non-significant trend towards reduced case level anxiety (0.30, 0.08 to 1.05). Carers' quality of life was higher in the intervention group (difference in means 4.09, 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 7.83) but not for the recipient of care (difference in means 0.59, -0.72 to 1.89). Carers in the intervention group reported less abusive behaviour towards the recipient of care compared with those in the treatment as usual group (odds ratio 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.18 to 1.23), although this was not significant. A manual based coping strategy was effective in reducing affective symptoms and case level depression in carers of family members with dementia. The carers' quality of life also improved. Current Controlled Trials ISCTRN70017938.

Technical and clinical performance of a new assay to detect squamous cell carcinoma antigen levels for the differential diagnosis of cervical, lung, and head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Holdenrieder, Stefan; Molina, Rafael; Qiu, Ling; Zhi, Xiuyi; Rutz, Sandra; Engel, Christine; Kasper-Sauer, Pia; Dayyani, Farshid; Korse, Catharina M

2018-04-01

In squamous cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma antigen levels are often elevated. This multi-center study evaluated the technical performance of a new Elecsys ® squamous cell carcinoma assay, which measures serum squamous cell carcinoma antigen 1 and 2 levels in an equimolar manner, and investigated the potential of squamous cell carcinoma antigen for differential diagnosis of cervical, lung, and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.Assay precision and method comparison experiments were performed across three European sites. Reference ranges for reportedly healthy individuals were determined using samples from banked European and Chinese populations. Differential diagnosis experiments determined whether cervical, lung, or head and neck cancer could be differentiated from apparently healthy, benign, or other malignant cohorts using squamous cell carcinoma antigen levels alone. Squamous cell carcinoma antigen cut-off levels were calculated based on squamous cell carcinoma antigen levels at 95% specificity. Repeatability coefficients of variation across nine analyte concentrations were ≤5.3%, and intermediate precision coefficients of variation were ≤10.3%. Method comparisons showed good correlations with Architect and Kryptor systems (slopes of 1.1 and 1.5, respectively). Reference ranges for 95th percentiles for apparently healthy individuals were 2.3 ng/mL (95% confidence interval: 1.9-3.8; European cohort, n = 153) and 2.7 ng/mL (95% confidence interval: 2.2-3.3; Chinese cohort, n = 146). Strongest differential diagnosis results were observed for cervical squamous cell carcinoma: receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that squamous cell carcinoma antigen levels (2.9 ng/mL cut-off) differentiate cervical squamous cell carcinoma (n = 127) from apparently healthy females (n = 286; area under the curve: 86.2%; 95% confidence interval: 81.8-90.6; sensitivity: 61.4%; specificity: 95.6%), benign diseases (n = 187; area under the curve: 86.3%; 95% confidence interval: 81.2-91.3; sensitivity: 61.4%; specificity: 95.0%), and other cervical cancers (n = 157; area under the curve: 78.9%; 95% confidence interval: 70.8-87.1; sensitivity: 61.4%; specificity: 86.7%). Squamous cell carcinoma may also aid in the differential diagnosis of lung cancer. The Elecsys squamous cell carcinoma assay exhibited good technical performance and is suitable for differential diagnosis of cervical squamous cell carcinoma in clinical practice.

Bone and fall-related fracture risks in women and men with a recent clinical fracture.

PubMed

van Helden, Svenhjalmar; van Geel, Antonia C M; Geusens, Piet P; Kessels, Alfons; Nieuwenhuijzen Kruseman, Arie C; Brink, Peter R G

2008-02-01

Worldwide fracture rates are increasing as a result of the aging population, and prevention, both primary and secondary, is an important public health goal. Therefore, we systematically analyzed risk factors in subjects with a recent clinical fracture. All men and women over fifty years of age who had been treated in the emergency department of, or hospitalized at, our institution because of a recent fracture during a one-year period were offered the opportunity to undergo an evidence-based bone and fall-related risk-factor assessment and bone densitometry. The women included in this study were also compared with a group of postmenopausal women without a fracture history who had been included in another cohort study. Of the 940 consecutive patients, 797 (85%) were eligible for this study and 568 (60%) agreed to participate. The prevalence of fall-related risk factors (75% [95% confidence interval = 71% to 78%]; n = 425) and the prevalence of bone-related risk factors (53% [95% confidence interval = 49% to 57%]; n = 299) at the time of fracture were higher than the prevalence of osteoporosis (35% [95% confidence interval = 31% to 39%]; n = 201) as defined by a dual x-ray absorptiometry T score of

Associations of High-Grade Glioma With Glioma Risk Alleles and Histories of Allergy and Smoking

PubMed Central

Lachance, Daniel H.; Yang, Ping; Johnson, Derek R.; Decker, Paul A.; Kollmeyer, Thomas M.; McCoy, Lucie S.; Rice, Terri; Xiao, Yuanyuan; Ali-Osman, Francis; Wang, Frances; Stoddard, Shawn M.; Sprau, Debra J.; Kosel, Matthew L.; Wiencke, John K.; Wiemels, Joseph L.; Patoka, Joseph S.; Davis, Faith; McCarthy, Bridget; Rynearson, Amanda L.; Worra, Joel B.; Fridley, Brooke L.; O’Neill, Brian Patrick; Buckner, Jan C.; Il’yasova, Dora; Jenkins, Robert B.; Wrensch, Margaret R.

2011-01-01

Glioma risk has consistently been inversely associated with allergy history but not with smoking history despite putative biologic plausibility. Data from 855 high-grade glioma cases and 1,160 controls from 4 geographic regions of the United States during 1997–2008 were analyzed for interactions between allergy and smoking histories and inherited variants in 5 established glioma risk regions: 5p15.3 (TERT), 8q24.21 (CCDC26/MLZE), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B), 11q23.3 (PHLDB1/DDX6), and 20q13.3 (RTEL1). The inverse relation between allergy and glioma was stronger among those who did not (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.28, 0.58) versus those who did (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.97; Pinteraction = 0.02) carry the 9p21.3 risk allele. However, the inverse association with allergy was stronger among those who carried (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.29, 0.68) versus those who did not carry (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.86) the 20q13.3 glioma risk allele, but this interaction was not statistically significant (P = 0.14). No relation was observed between glioma risk and smoking (odds ratio = 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.77, 1.10; P = 0.37), and there were no interactions for glioma risk of smoking history with any of the risk alleles. The authors’ observations are consistent with a recent report that the inherited glioma risk variants in chromosome regions 9p21.3 and 20q13.3 may modify the inverse association of allergy and glioma. PMID:21742680

Gastric dilation-volvulus in dogs attending UK emergency-care veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors and survival.

PubMed

O'Neill, D G; Case, J; Boag, A K; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

2017-11-01

To report prevalence, risk factors and clinical outcomes for presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnosed among an emergency-care population of UK dogs. The study used a cross-sectional design using emergency-care veterinary clinical records from the VetCompass Programme spanning September 1, 2012 to February 28, 2014 and risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression modelling. The study population comprised 77,088 dogs attending 50 Vets Now clinics. Overall, 492 dogs had presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus diagnoses, giving a prevalence of 0·64% (95% Confidence interval: 0·58 to 0·70%). Compared with cross-bred dogs, breeds with the highest odds ratios for the diagnosis of presumptive gastric dilation-volvulus were the great Dane (odds ratio: 114·3, 95% Confidence interval 55·1 to 237·1, P<0·001), akita (odds ratio: 84·4, 95% Confidence interval 33·6 to 211·9, P<0·001) and dogue de Bordeaux (odds ratio: 82·9, 95% Confidence interval 39·0 to 176·3, P<0·001). Odds increased as dogs aged up to 12 years and neutered male dogs had 1·3 (95% Confidence interval 1·0 to 1·8, P=0·041) times the odds compared with entire females. Of the cases that were presented alive, 49·7% survived to discharge overall, but 79·3% of surgical cases survived to discharge. Approximately 80% of surgically managed cases survived to discharge. Certain large breeds were highly predisposed. © 2017 British Small Animal Veterinary Association.

Diagnostic accuracy of intracellular mycobacterium tuberculosis detection for tuberculous meningitis.

PubMed

Feng, Guo-dong; Shi, Ming; Ma, Lei; Chen, Ping; Wang, Bing-ju; Zhang, Min; Chang, Xiao-lin; Su, Xiu-chu; Yang, Yi-ning; Fan, Xin-hong; Dai, Wen; Liu, Ting-ting; He, Ying; Bian, Ting; Duan, Li-xin; Li, Jin-ge; Hao, Xiao-ke; Liu, Jia-yun; Xue, Xin; Song, Yun-zhang; Wu, Hai-qin; Niu, Guo-qiang; Zhang, Li; Han, Cui-juan; Lin, Hong; Lin, Zhi-hui; Liu, Jian-jun; Jian, Qian; Zhang, Jin-she; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Bai-yu; Wang, Jing; Xue, Chang-hu; Han, Xiao-fang; Wang, Jian-feng; Wang, Shou-lian; Thwaites, Guy E; Zhao, Gang

2014-02-15

Early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculous meningitis saves lives, but current laboratory diagnostic tests lack sensitivity. We investigated whether the detection of intracellular bacteria by a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and early secretory antigen target (ESAT)-6 in cerebrospinal fluid leukocytes improves tuberculous meningitis diagnosis. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens from patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were stained by conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain, a modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain involving cytospin slides with Triton processing, and an ESAT-6 immunocytochemical stain. Acid-fast bacteria and ESAT-6-expressing leukocytes were detected by microscopy. All tests were performed prospectively in a central laboratory by experienced technicians masked to the patients' final diagnosis. Two hundred and eighty patients with suspected tuberculous meningitis were enrolled. Thirty-seven had Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultured from cerebrospinal fluid; 40 had a microbiologically confirmed alternative diagnosis; the rest had probable or possible tuberculous meningitis according to published criteria. Against a clinical diagnostic gold standard the sensitivity of conventional Ziehl-Neelsen stain was 3.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.6-6.7%), compared with 82.9% (95% confidence interval, 77.4-87.3%) for modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain and 75.1% (95% confidence interval, 68.8-80.6%) for ESAT-6 immunostain. Intracellular bacteria were seen in 87.8% of the slides positive by the modified Ziehl-Neelsen stain. The specificity of modified Ziehl-Neelsen and ESAT-6 stain was 85.0% (95% confidence interval, 69.4-93.8%) and 90.0% (95% confidence interval, 75.4-96.7%), respectively. Enhanced bacterial detection by simple modification of the Ziehl-Neelsen stain and an ESAT-6 intracellular stain improve the laboratory diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis.

Dietary acid, age, and serum bicarbonate levels among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Amodu, Afolarin; Abramowitz, Matthew K

2013-12-01

Greater dietary acid has been associated with lower serum bicarbonate levels in patients with CKD. Whether this association extends to the general population and if it is modified by age are unknown. This study examined the association of the dietary acid load, estimated by net endogenous acid production, with serum bicarbonate levels in adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004. The mean serum bicarbonate was 24.9 mEq/L (SEM=0.1), and the mean estimated net endogenous acid production was 57.4 mEq/d (SEM=0.4). Serum bicarbonate was linearly associated with age, such that the oldest participants had the highest serum bicarbonate levels. After multivariable adjustment, participants in the highest quartile of net endogenous acid production had 0.40 mEq/L (95% confidence interval, -0.55 to -0.26) lower serum bicarbonate and a 33% (95% confidence interval, 3 to 72) higher likelihood of acidosis compared with those participants in the lowest quartile. There was a significant interaction by age of the association of net endogenous acid production with serum bicarbonate (P=0.005). Among participants 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years old, those participants in the highest net endogenous acid production quartile had 0.26 (95% confidence interval, -0.49 to -0.03), 0.60 (95% confidence interval, -0.92 to -0.29), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval, -0.84 to -0.14) mEq/L lower serum bicarbonate, respectively, compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Greater dietary acid is associated with lower serum bicarbonate in the general US population, and the magnitude of this association is greater among middle-aged and elderly persons than younger adults.

Comparative factor analysis of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chia-En; Lin, Kuo-Hua; Lin, Chia-Cheng; Hwu, Yueh-Juen; Lin, Ping-Yi; Lin, Hui-Chuan; Ko, Chih-Jan; Wang, Su-Han; Chen, Yao-Li

2015-04-01

Intensive nutritional support can reduce the catabolic response, improve protein synthesis, and promote liver regeneration. This study examined whether postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition may improve recovery and reduce the length of hospital stay in right lobe liver donors. In this retrospective study, we enrolled liver donors with residual liver volume < 50%. Donors were classified into 2 groups: donors who received (n = 44) or did not receive (n = 40) postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition. Liver function tests included alanine aminotransferase and total bilirubin levels, and postoperative complications included pleural effusion, atelectasis, and wound complications. Hospital length of stay was included as a potential risk factor for the evaluation of the effect of postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition on recovery of right lobe liver donors. Male sex (β, 22.04; 95% confidence interval: 6.22 - 37.86) was a significant predictor of changes in postoperative alanine aminotransferase level. Male sex (β, 0.045; 95% confidence interval: 0.16 - 37.86) and receipt of peripheral parenteral nutrition (β, -0.045; 95% confidence interval: -0.72 - 0.17) were significant predictors of changes in total bilirubin level. Postoperative atelectasis (P < .001), pleural effusion (P < .011), and total complications (P = .015) had significantly lower incidence in the peripheral parenteral nutrition than control group. Multivariate logistic regression showed that recipients of peripheral parenteral nutrition (odds ratio, 0.161; 95% confidence interval: 0.043 - 0.598) and age (odds ratio, 0.870; 95% confidence interval: 0.782 - 0.968) were significant preoperative risk factors for postoperative complications. Postoperative peripheral parenteral nutrition is associated with a lower incidence of pleural effusion and atelectasis, a more rapid recovery of hyperbilirubinemia, and shorter length of stay in right lobe liver donors.

Prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology after childbirth - A Croatian longitudinal study.

PubMed

Srkalović Imširagić, Azijada; Begić, Dražen; Šimičević, Livija; Bajić, Žarko

2017-02-01

Following childbirth, a vast number of women experience some degree of mood swings, while some experience symptoms of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder. Using a biopsychosocial model, the primary aim of this study was to identify predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder and its symptomatology following childbirth. This observational, longitudinal study included 372 postpartum women. In order to explore biopsychosocial predictors, participants completed several questionnaires 3-5 days after childbirth: the Impact of Events Scale Revised, the Big Five Inventory, The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, breastfeeding practice and social and demographic factors. Six to nine weeks after childbirth, participants re-completed the questionnaires regarding psychiatric symptomatology and breastfeeding practice. Using a multivariate level of analysis, the predictors that increased the likelihood of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the first study phase were: emergency caesarean section (odds ratio 2.48; confidence interval 1.13-5.43) and neuroticism personality trait (odds ratio 1.12; confidence interval 1.05-1.20). The predictor that increased the likelihood of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the second study phase was the baseline Impact of Events Scale Revised score (odds ratio 12.55; confidence interval 4.06-38.81). Predictors that decreased the likelihood of symptomatology at the second study phase were life in a nuclear family (odds ratio 0.27; confidence interval 0.09-0.77) and life in a city (odds ratio 0.29; confidence interval 0.09-0.94). Biopsychosocial theory is applicable to postpartum psychiatric disorders. In addition to screening for depression amongst postpartum women, there is a need to include other postpartum psychiatric symptomatology screenings in routine practice. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The association between the metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score and pulmonary function in non-smoking adults.

PubMed

Yoon, Hyun; Gi, Mi Young; Cha, Ju Ae; Yoo, Chan Uk; Park, Sang Muk

2018-03-01

This study assessed the association of metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score with the predicted forced vital capacity and predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s) values in Korean non-smoking adults. We analysed data obtained from 6684 adults during the 2013-2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. After adjustment for related variables, metabolic syndrome ( p < 0.001) and metabolic syndrome score ( p < 0.001) were found to be inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values. The odds ratios of restrictive pulmonary disease (the predicted forced vital capacity < 80.0% with forced expiratory volume in 1 s/FVC ⩾ 70.0%) by metabolic syndrome score with metabolic syndrome score 0 as a reference group showed no significance for metabolic syndrome score 1 [1.061 (95% confidence interval, 0.755-1.490)] and metabolic syndrome score 2 [1.247 (95% confidence interval, 0.890-1.747)], but showed significant for metabolic syndrome score 3 [1.433 (95% confidence interval, 1.010-2.033)] and metabolic syndrome score ⩾ 4 [1.760 (95% confidence interval, 1.216-2.550)]. In addition, the odds ratio of restrictive pulmonary disease of the metabolic syndrome [1.360 (95% confidence interval, 1.118-1.655)] was significantly higher than those of non-metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were inversely associated with the predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 s values in Korean non-smoking adults. In addition, metabolic syndrome and metabolic syndrome score were positively associated with the restrictive pulmonary disease.

High definition versus standard definition white light endoscopy for detecting dysplasia in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

PubMed

Sami, S S; Subramanian, V; Butt, W M; Bejkar, G; Coleman, J; Mannath, J; Ragunath, K

2015-01-01

High-definition endoscopy systems provide superior image resolution. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of high definition compared with standard definition endoscopy system for detecting dysplastic lesions in patients with Barrett's esophagus. A retrospective cohort study of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus undergoing routine surveillance was performed. Data were retrieved from the central hospital electronic database. Procedures performed for non-surveillance indications, Barrett's esophagus Prague C0M1 classification with no specialized intestinal metaplasia on histology, patients diagnosed with any dysplasia or cancer on index endoscopy, and procedures using advanced imaging techniques were excluded. Logistic regression models were constructed to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals comparing outcomes with standard definition and high-definition systems. The high definition was superior to standard definition system in targeted detection of all dysplastic lesions (odds ratio 3.27, 95% confidence interval 1.27-8.40) as well as overall dysplasia detected on both random and target biopsies (odds ratio 2.36, 95% confidence interval 1.50-3.72). More non-dysplastic lesions were detected with the high-definition system (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.33). There was no difference between high definition and standard definition endoscopy in the overall (random and target) high-grade dysplasia or cancers detected (odds ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.83-1.04). Trainee endoscopists, number of biopsies taken, and male sex were all significantly associated with a higher yield for dysplastic lesions. The use of the high-definition endoscopy system is associated with better targeted detection of any dysplasia during routine Barrett's esophagus surveillance. However, high-definition endoscopy cannot replace random biopsies at present time. © 2014 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Impact of Time to Treatment Initiation in Patients with Human Papillomavirus-positive and -negative Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Grønhøj, C; Jensen, D; Dehlendorff, C; Nørregaard, C; Andersen, E; Specht, L; Charabi, B; von Buchwald, C

2018-06-01

The distinct difference in disease phenotype of human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) and -negative (HPV-) oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) patients might also be apparent when assessing the effect of time to treatment initiation (TTI). We assessed the overall survival and progression-free survival (PFS) effect from increasing TTI for HPV+ and HPV- OPSCC patients. We examined patients who received curative-intended therapy for OPSCC in eastern Denmark between 2000 and 2014. TTI was the number of days from diagnosis to the initiation of curative treatment. Overall survival and PFS were measured from the start of treatment and estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression. At a median follow-up of 3.6 years (interquartile range 1.86-6.07 years), 1177 patients were included (59% HPV+). In the adjusted analysis for the HPV+ and HPV- patient population, TTI influenced overall survival and PFS, most evident in the HPV- group, where TTI >60 days statistically significantly influenced overall survival but not PFS (overall survival: hazard ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.45; PFS: hazard ratio 1.46; 95% confidence interval 0.96-2.22). For patients with a TTI >60 days in the HPV+ group, TTI affected overall survival and PFS similarly, with slightly lower hazard ratio estimates of 1.44 (95% confidence interval 0.83-2.51) and 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.70-1.88), respectively. For patients treated for a HPV+ or HPV- OPSCC, TTI affects outcome, with the strongest effect for overall survival among HPV- patients. Reducing TTI is an important tool to improve the prognosis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Gene polymorphisms in folate metabolizing enzymes in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia: effects on methotrexate-related toxicity and survival

PubMed Central

Ongaro, Alessia; De Mattei, Monica; Della Porta, Matteo Giovanni; Rigolin, GianMatteo; Ambrosio, Cristina; Di Raimondo, Francesco; Pellati, Agnese; Masieri, Federica Francesca; Caruso, Angelo; Catozzi, Linda; Gemmati, Donato

2009-01-01

Background The antifolate agent methotrexate is an important component of maintenance therapy in acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although methotrexate-related toxicity is often a reason for interruption of chemotherapy. Prediction of toxicity is difficult because of inter-individual variability susceptibility to antileukemic agents. Methotrexate interferes with folate metabolism leading to depletion of reduced folates. Design and Methods The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of polymorphisms for folate metabolizing enzymes with respect to toxicity and survival in adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with methotrexate maintenance therapy. To this purpose, we evaluated possible associations between genotype and hematologic and non-hematologic toxicity and effects on survival at 2 years of follow-up in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Results Polymorphisms in the genes encoding for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR 677C>T) and in dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR 19 bp deletion) significantly increased the risk of hepatotoxicity in single (odds ratio 5.23, 95% confidence interval 1.13–21.95 and odds ratio 4.57, 95% confidence interval 1.01–20.77, respectively) and in combined analysis (odds ratio 6.82, 95% confidence interval 1.38–33.59). MTHFR 677C>T also increased the risk of leukopenia and gastrointestinal toxicity, whilst thymidylate synthase 28 bp repeat polymorphism increased the risk of anemia (odds ratio 8.48, 95% confidence interval 2.00–36.09). Finally, patients with MTHFR 677TT had a decreased overall survival rate (hazard ratio 2.37, 95% confidence interval 1.46–8.45). Conclusions Genotyping of folate polymorphisms might be useful in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia to optimize methotrexate therapy, reducing the associated toxicity with possible effects on survival. PMID:19648163

The thresholds for statistical and clinical significance – a five-step procedure for evaluation of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Thresholds for statistical significance are insufficiently demonstrated by 95% confidence intervals or P-values when assessing results from randomised clinical trials. First, a P-value only shows the probability of getting a result assuming that the null hypothesis is true and does not reflect the probability of getting a result assuming an alternative hypothesis to the null hypothesis is true. Second, a confidence interval or a P-value showing significance may be caused by multiplicity. Third, statistical significance does not necessarily result in clinical significance. Therefore, assessment of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials deserves more rigour in order to become more valid. Methods Several methodologies for assessing the statistical and clinical significance of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials were considered. Balancing simplicity and comprehensiveness, a simple five-step procedure was developed. Results For a more valid assessment of results from a randomised clinical trial we propose the following five-steps: (1) report the confidence intervals and the exact P-values; (2) report Bayes factor for the primary outcome, being the ratio of the probability that a given trial result is compatible with a ‘null’ effect (corresponding to the P-value) divided by the probability that the trial result is compatible with the intervention effect hypothesised in the sample size calculation; (3) adjust the confidence intervals and the statistical significance threshold if the trial is stopped early or if interim analyses have been conducted; (4) adjust the confidence intervals and the P-values for multiplicity due to number of outcome comparisons; and (5) assess clinical significance of the trial results. Conclusions If the proposed five-step procedure is followed, this may increase the validity of assessments of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials. PMID:24588900

Parental use of sun protection for their children-does skin color matter?

PubMed

Tan, Marcus G; Nag, Shudeshna; Weinstein, Miriam

2018-03-01

Excessive sun exposure during childhood is a risk factor for skin cancer. This study aimed to compare the frequency of ideal sun protection use between parents with lighter- and darker-skinned children and explore their attitudes and beliefs on sun safety and their choice of sun protection. Parents of children aged 6 months to 6 years completed self-administered questionnaires about sun protection practices for their children. Parents assessed their child's Fitzpatrick phototype and were divided into lighter- (Fitzpatrick phototype I-III) and darker-skinned (Fitzpatrick phototype IV-VI) groups. Sun safety guidelines from the Canadian Dermatology Association were used to qualify ideal sun protection. A total of 183 parents were included. Overall, 31 parents (17%) used ideal sun protection for their children. As their children grew older, parents were less likely to use ideal sun protection (odds ratio = 0.69, 95% confidence interval = 0.53-0.90). Parents in the lighter-skinned group were more likely to use ideal sun protection for their children (odds ratio = 7.4, 95% confidence interval = 2.7-20.1), believe that sun exposure was harmful (odds ratio = 17.2, 95% confidence interval = 4.0-74.9), and perceive value in sun protection (odds ratio = 11.4, 95% confidence interval = 3.3-39.0); the darker-skinned group believed that darker skin tones provided more sun protection (odds ratio = 12.4, 95% confidence interval = 6.1-25.4). Ideal parental sun protection efforts are overall low, particularly in parents of darker-skinned children. The identified attitudes toward and beliefs about sun safety may aid in delivery of future sun protection interventions, especially in multiracial populations. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Glaucoma correlates with increased risk of Parkinson's disease in the elderly: a national-based cohort study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lai, Shih-Wei; Lin, Cheng-Li; Liao, Kuan-Fu

2017-08-01

Very little is known about the association between glaucoma and Parkinson's disease in the elderly. The objective of this study was to determine whether glaucoma is associated with Parkinson's disease in older people in Taiwan. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program database from 2000 to 2010. We included 4330 subjects aged 65 years or older with newly diagnosed glaucoma as the glaucoma group, and 17,000 randomly selected subjects without a glaucoma diagnosis as the non-glaucoma group. Both groups were matched for sex, age, other comorbidities, and index year of glaucoma diagnosis. The incidence of Parkinson's disease at the end of 2011 was measured. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to measure the hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals for Parkinson's disease associated with glaucoma. The overall incidence of Parkinson's disease was 1.28-fold higher in the glaucoma group than that in the non-glaucoma group (7.73 vs. 6.02 per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval 1.18, 1.40). After controlling for potential confounding factors, the adjusted hazard ratio of Parkinson's disease was 1.23 for the glaucoma group (95% confidence interval 1.05, 1.46), compared with the non-glaucoma group. Older people with glaucoma correlate with a small but statistically significant increase in the risk for Parkinson's disease. Whether glaucoma may be a non-motor feature of Parkinson's disease in older people requires further research to confirm.